Detailed Predictions for: Box Canyon
Launch Altitude (f): 6200
LZ Altitude (f): 4450
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

17 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 38 38 SE 15 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 39 39 SE 15 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 39 39 SE 15 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 39 39 SE 15 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 44 44 SE 15 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 49 50 E 14 5086 6200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 53 55 E 13 5977 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 56 59 E 12 6686 6200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 58 61 E 10 7248 6502 302 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 61 63 E 9 8918 6853 653 Blue 2
3 PM Wed 59 60 E 9 6863 6326 126 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 56 56 NE 8 6155 6200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 54 54 NE 8 5799 6200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 49 49 E 9 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 45 45 E 9 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 42 42 E 10 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 41 41 E 10 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 41 41 E 10 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 39 39 SE 12 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 38 38 SE 12 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 38 38 SE 13 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 39 39 SE 13 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 42 42 SE 13 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 40 40 SE 13 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 39 39 SE 13 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 41 41 SE 13 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 41 41 E 12 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 40 40 E 12 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 46 46 E 12 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 52 53 E 13 5621 6200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 57 60 E 12 6863 6326 126 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 59 62 E 10 7832 6678 478 Blue 1
1 PM Thu 62 64 E 8 10200 7209 1009 Blue 3
2 PM Thu 66 68 E 7 13900 11004 4804 Blue 7
3 PM Thu 64 65 E 6 11266 7784 1584 Blue 4
4 PM Thu 61 61 NE 6 7248 6502 302 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 58 58 N 6 6509 6200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 54 54 NE 6 5799 6200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 50 50 E 7 5086 6200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 47 47 E 7 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 46 46 E 7 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 47 47 SE 7 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 44 44 SE 7 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 44 44 SE 7 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 43 43 S 7 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 44 44 S 7 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 47 47 S 7 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 46 46 S 8 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 44 44 S 8 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 46 46 S 8 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 46 46 S 9 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 46 46 S 10 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 51 51 S 10 5265 6200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 56 57 S 12 6332 6200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 61 63 S 12 8918 6853 653 Blue 2
12 Noon Fri 63 66 SW 13 12526 8490 2290 Blue 5
1 PM Fri 66 69 SW 15 14119 12223 6023 Blue 8
2 PM Fri 69 71 SW 16 14419 13836 7636 Blue 10
3 PM Fri 67 68 SW 16 13900 11004 4804 Blue 7
4 PM Fri 64 64 SW 16 10200 7209 1009 Blue 3
5 PM Fri 61 61 SW 16 7248 6502 302 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 56 56 SW 16 6155 6200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 52 52 SW 16 5443 6200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 48 48 SW 16 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 47 47 S 16 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 47 47 S 16 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 44 44 S 17 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 44 44 S 18 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 44 44 S 18 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 44 44 S 20 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 44 44 S 20 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 44 44 SW 18 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 44 44 SW 17 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 44 44 SW 17 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 44 44 SW 16 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 44 44 SW 16 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 45 45 W 16 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 46 46 W 16 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 47 47 W 16 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 48 49 W 17 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 48 49 W 18 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 49 50 W 20 5086 6200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 48 48 W 21 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 45 45 W 21 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 42 42 W 21 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 38 38 W 21 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 35 35 W 20 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 32 32 W 17 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 31 31 W 16 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 32 32 W 15 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 29 29 W 13 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 29 29 W 13 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 29 29 W 12 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 30 30 W 12 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 32 32 W 10 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 31 31 W 10 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 30 30 W 10 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 31 31 W 10 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 31 31 W 10 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 31 31 NW 10 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 35 35 NW 10 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 40 41 NW 9 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 43 45 N 9 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 45 48 N 10 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 47 50 N 10 5086 6200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 50 52 N 12 5443 6200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 49 50 N 12 5086 6200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 46 46 N 12 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 44 44 N 12 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 40 40 N 12 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 36 36 N 10 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 34 34 NE 9 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 32 32 E 8 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 33 33 E 7 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 31 31 SE 7 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 30 30 E 7 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 30 30 E 7 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 31 31 E 7 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 34 34 E 8 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 33 33 E 8 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 32 32 E 9 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 33 33 E 9 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 33 33 E 9 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 33 33 E 10 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 38 38 E 10 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 45 46 E 10 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 50 52 E 10 5443 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 52 55 E 10 5977 6200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 55 58 NE 10 6509 6200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 59 61 NE 10 7248 6502 302 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 57 58 N 10 6509 6200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 53 53 N 10 5621 6200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 50 50 NW 10 5086 6200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 44 44 NW 9 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 40 40 W 9 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 37 37 W 8 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 35 35 SW 7 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 36 36 S 6 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 33 33 S 6 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 32 32 S 5 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 32 32 S 5 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 33 33 S 5 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 36 36 S 5 5066 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 34 34 S 3 5066 6200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com