Detailed Predictions for: Box Canyon
Launch Altitude (f): 6200
LZ Altitude (f): 4450
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

19 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 45 45 E 17 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 45 45 E 18 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 46 46 E 18 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 50 50 E 18 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 63 64 E 17 9537 6200 0 Blue 6
10 AM Sun 66 68 E 16 9901 9613 3413 Blue 10
11 AM Sun 69 72 E 15 10753 10121 3921 Blue 14
12 Noon Sun 72 75 E 13 11720 10709 4509 Blue 17
1 PM Sun 72 75 E 10 11720 10709 4509 Blue 17
2 PM Sun 72 74 E 8 11317 10595 4395 Blue 16
3 PM Sun 72 73 E 7 11002 10501 4301 Blue 15
4 PM Sun 68 68 E 7 9901 9613 3413 Blue 10
5 PM Sun 64 64 NE 7 9537 6200 0 Blue 6
6 PM Sun 58 58 E 7 5234 6200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 54 54 E 8 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 52 52 SE 9 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 50 50 SE 8 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 48 48 SE 8 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 47 47 SE 8 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 48 48 SE 7 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 48 48 SE 6 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 47 47 SE 6 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 46 46 S 6 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 46 46 S 6 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 45 45 S 6 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 45 45 S 6 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 46 46 S 5 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 50 50 S 5 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 63 64 SE 3 9537 6200 0 Blue 6
10 AM Mon 67 68 E 3 9901 9613 3413 Blue 10
11 AM Mon 70 72 NE 5 10753 10121 3921 Blue 14
12 Noon Mon 72 74 N 6 11317 10595 4395 Blue 16
1 PM Mon 73 75 NW 8 11720 10709 4509 Blue 17
2 PM Mon 73 75 W 9 11720 10709 4509 Blue 17
3 PM Mon 72 73 W 9 11002 10501 4301 Blue 15
4 PM Mon 69 69 NW 9 10212 9701 3501 Blue 11
5 PM Mon 65 65 NW 8 9625 6200 0 Blue 7
6 PM Mon 59 59 NW 7 5401 6200 0 Blue 1
7 PM Mon 55 55 W 6 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 52 52 W 5 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 51 51 W 5 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 49 49 W 5 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 48 48 W 6 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 49 49 W 5 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 49 49 W 5 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 48 48 W 5 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 47 47 SW 3 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 47 47 S 2 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 46 46 S 2 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 46 46 S 1 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 47 47 SE 2 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 51 51 E 2 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 66 66 E 3 9714 6827 627 Blue 8
10 AM Tue 70 71 NE 3 10611 9885 3685 Blue 13
11 AM Tue 73 75 NE 5 11720 10709 4509 Blue 17
12 Noon Tue 75 78 NE 5 14099 11636 5436 Blue 20
1 PM Tue 76 78 NE 6 14099 11636 5436 Blue 20
2 PM Tue 76 78 N 6 14099 11636 5436 Blue 20
3 PM Tue 76 77 N 6 13076 11237 5037 Blue 19
4 PM Tue 72 72 N 7 10753 10121 3921 Blue 14
5 PM Tue 67 67 N 7 9803 9524 3324 Blue 9
6 PM Tue 62 62 N 8 6076 6200 0 Blue 4
7 PM Tue 57 57 N 9 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 55 55 NE 9 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 53 53 NE 10 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 52 52 NE 12 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 51 51 NE 13 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 51 51 E 14 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 51 51 E 14 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 50 50 E 15 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 50 50 E 15 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 49 49 E 15 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 48 48 E 15 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 48 48 E 14 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 49 49 E 14 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 53 53 E 13 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 68 68 E 13 9901 9613 3413 Blue 10
10 AM Wed 72 73 E 12 11002 10501 4301 Blue 15
11 AM Wed 75 77 E 12 13076 11237 5037 Blue 19
12 Noon Wed 78 81 E 12 16220 13819 7619 Blue 23
1 PM Wed 79 81 E 13 16220 13819 7619 Blue 23
2 PM Wed 78 80 E 13 15703 12795 6595 Blue 22
3 PM Wed 78 79 E 13 15004 12029 5829 Blue 21
4 PM Wed 74 74 E 14 11317 10595 4395 Blue 16
5 PM Wed 70 70 E 14 10517 9790 3590 Blue 12
6 PM Wed 64 64 E 13 9537 6200 0 Blue 6
7 PM Wed 60 60 E 12 5568 6200 0 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 57 57 E 10 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 56 56 E 9 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 54 54 E 8 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 53 53 E 7 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 53 53 E 7 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 53 53 E 7 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 52 52 E 8 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 52 52 E 8 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 52 52 E 9 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 50 50 E 10 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 51 51 E 10 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 52 52 E 10 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 56 56 E 9 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 70 71 E 9 10611 9885 3685 Blue 13
10 AM Thu 75 77 E 9 13076 11237 5037 Blue 19
11 AM Thu 78 81 E 9 16220 13819 7619 Blue 23
12 Noon Thu 81 84 E 9 16867 16032 9832 Blue 26
1 PM Thu 81 84 E 9 16867 16032 9832 Blue 26
2 PM Thu 81 83 E 9 16684 15519 9319 Blue 25
3 PM Thu 81 82 E 10 16502 14725 8525 Blue 24
4 PM Thu 77 77 E 10 13076 11237 5037 Blue 19
5 PM Thu 72 72 NE 10 10753 10121 3921 Blue 14
6 PM Thu 66 66 E 9 9714 6827 627 Blue 8
7 PM Thu 61 61 E 9 5734 6200 0 Blue 3
8 PM Thu 58 58 E 8 5234 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 56 56 E 8 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 55 55 E 7 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 54 54 SE 7 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 54 54 SE 7 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 54 54 E 7 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 53 53 E 7 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 52 52 E 8 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 52 52 E 8 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 51 51 E 8 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 51 51 E 8 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 52 52 E 7 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 56 56 E 7 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 70 71 E 7 10611 9885 3685 Blue 13
10 AM Fri 74 76 SE 6 12117 10955 4755 Blue 18
11 AM Fri 76 79 SE 6 15004 12029 5829 Blue 21
12 Noon Fri 79 82 E 6 16502 14725 8525 Blue 24
1 PM Fri 80 83 E 6 16684 15519 9319 Blue 25
2 PM Fri 79 81 NE 6 16220 13819 7619 Blue 23
3 PM Fri 79 80 N 7 15703 12795 6595 Blue 22
4 PM Fri 76 76 N 7 12117 10955 4755 Blue 18
5 PM Fri 71 71 NW 7 10611 9885 3685 Blue 13
6 PM Fri 65 65 NW 7 9625 6200 0 Blue 7
7 PM Fri 61 61 NW 7 5734 6200 0 Blue 3
8 PM Fri 58 58 W 7 5234 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 56 56 W 6 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 55 55 SW 6 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 54 54 SW 6 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 54 54 S 5 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 54 54 S 5 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 53 53 SE 5 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 53 53 SE 5 5000 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 53 53 SE 5 5000 6200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com