Detailed Predictions for: Box Canyon
Launch Altitude (f): 6200
LZ Altitude (f): 4450
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 65 65 W 8 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 65 65 W 8 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 68 68 W 8 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 78 80 W 8 7802 6200 0 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 82 85 W 8 12437 9051 2851 White 7
11 AM Tue 85 89 NW 8 13287 13287 7087 White 11
12 Noon Tue 88 92 NW 8 13921 13921 7721 White 14
1 PM Tue 90 94 NW 8 14341 14341 8141 White 16
2 PM Tue 90 93 NW 9 14132 14132 7932 White 15
3 PM Tue 90 92 NW 10 13921 13921 7721 White 14
4 PM Tue 90 91 NW 12 13710 13710 7510 White 13
5 PM Tue 90 90 NW 13 13499 13499 7299 White 12
6 PM Tue 88 88 NW 14 13075 13075 6875 White 10
7 PM Tue 84 84 NW 14 11148 8423 2223 Blue 6
8 PM Tue 78 78 W 13 6302 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 76 76 W 12 5623 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 74 74 W 10 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 73 73 W 10 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 72 72 SW 9 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 71 71 SW 9 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 69 69 SW 8 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 69 69 SW 8 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 67 67 SW 8 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 67 67 SW 7 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 66 66 SW 7 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 65 65 SW 7 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 66 66 SW 7 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 70 70 SW 7 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 72 72 SW 7 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 73 73 SW 7 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 74 74 W 7 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 74 74 W 8 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 74 74 W 9 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 74 74 W 10 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 75 75 W 10 5292 6200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 74 74 W 9 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 73 73 W 8 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 71 71 W 7 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 68 68 SW 7 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 67 67 SW 7 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 66 66 SW 7 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 65 65 S 8 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 65 65 S 8 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 64 64 S 8 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 63 63 SW 8 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 63 63 SW 7 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 62 62 SW 6 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 62 62 W 5 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 61 61 W 5 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 61 61 NW 5 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 63 63 NW 6 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 69 69 N 6 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 71 72 N 6 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 73 75 N 7 5292 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 74 76 N 7 5623 6200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 75 77 N 7 5951 6200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 75 77 N 7 5951 6200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 76 77 N 7 5951 6200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 76 77 NW 7 5951 6200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 75 75 NW 7 5292 6200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 74 74 W 7 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 72 72 W 7 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 68 68 W 7 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 67 67 W 7 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 66 66 W 7 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 66 66 SW 7 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 65 65 SW 7 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 64 64 SW 7 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 63 63 SW 7 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 63 63 SW 7 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 62 62 SW 7 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 62 62 SW 6 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 61 61 SW 6 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 61 61 W 6 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 63 63 W 6 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 70 71 W 6 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 72 74 NW 6 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 75 78 NW 6 6302 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 77 81 N 6 8490 6276 76 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 78 82 NW 6 9214 7032 832 Blue 4
2 PM Fri 78 81 NW 6 8490 6276 76 Blue 3
3 PM Fri 78 80 NW 7 7802 6200 0 Blue 2
4 PM Fri 78 79 NW 7 7075 6200 0 Blue 1
5 PM Fri 78 78 NW 7 6302 6200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 77 77 NW 7 5951 6200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 74 74 NW 7 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 70 70 NW 6 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 68 68 NW 6 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 67 67 NW 6 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 67 67 N 5 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 66 66 N 5 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 65 65 N 5 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 64 64 N 5 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 64 64 N 5 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 63 63 N 5 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 62 62 N 6 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 62 62 N 6 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 62 62 NE 6 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 64 64 NE 7 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 72 74 NE 7 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 75 78 NE 8 6302 6200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 78 83 E 8 9647 7746 1546 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 80 85 E 8 12437 9051 2851 White 7
1 PM Sat 81 86 E 8 12650 9588 3388 White 8
2 PM Sat 81 85 NE 7 12437 9051 2851 White 7
3 PM Sat 81 84 NE 7 11148 8423 2223 Blue 6
4 PM Sat 82 83 NE 6 9647 7746 1546 Blue 5
5 PM Sat 81 81 NE 5 8490 6276 76 Blue 3
6 PM Sat 80 80 NE 5 7802 6200 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sat 77 77 NE 5 5951 6200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 72 72 NE 5 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 70 70 E 6 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 69 69 E 6 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 68 68 E 7 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 67 67 E 7 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 66 66 E 7 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 65 65 E 7 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 64 64 E 7 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 63 63 E 7 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 63 63 E 7 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 62 62 E 7 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 62 62 E 7 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 64 65 E 7 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 74 76 E 7 5623 6200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 76 79 E 7 7075 6200 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 79 84 E 7 11148 8423 2223 Blue 6
12 Noon Sun 81 86 E 7 12650 9588 3388 White 8
1 PM Sun 83 88 SE 7 13075 13075 6875 White 10
2 PM Sun 83 87 S 6 12863 10970 4770 White 9
3 PM Sun 83 86 S 6 12650 9588 3388 White 8
4 PM Sun 84 85 SW 5 12437 9051 2851 White 7
5 PM Sun 83 83 W 5 9647 7746 1546 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 82 82 W 5 9214 7032 832 Blue 4
7 PM Sun 78 78 W 5 6302 6200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 73 73 W 6 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 71 71 W 7 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 70 70 SW 7 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 69 69 SW 8 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 68 68 SW 8 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 67 67 SW 8 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 65 65 SW 7 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 65 65 SW 7 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 63 63 W 6 5197 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 63 63 W 5 5197 6200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com