Detailed Predictions for: Box Canyon
Launch Altitude (f): 6200
LZ Altitude (f): 4450
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

16 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 71 71 W 7 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 70 70 W 6 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 81 82 SW 6 5412 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 88 90 SW 6 11651 9469 3269 Blue 7
10 AM Tue 92 96 SW 6 16082 16082 9882 White 13
11 AM Tue 94 99 W 7 16695 16695 10495 White 16
12 Noon Tue 96 101 W 8 17102 17102 10902 White 18
1 PM Tue 98 103 W 9 17504 17504 11304 White 20
2 PM Tue 98 102 W 10 17303 17303 11103 White 19
3 PM Tue 96 98 W 10 16491 16491 10291 White 15
4 PM Tue 95 96 W 10 16082 16082 9882 White 13
5 PM Tue 96 96 W 10 16082 16082 9882 White 13
6 PM Tue 95 95 W 9 15878 15878 9678 White 12
7 PM Tue 93 93 W 10 15467 11543 5343 White 10
8 PM Tue 88 88 W 12 10295 7897 1697 Blue 5
9 PM Tue 85 85 SW 12 7968 6200 0 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 82 82 SW 12 5412 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 81 81 SW 12 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 78 78 SW 12 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 76 76 SW 12 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 75 75 SW 13 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 73 73 SW 13 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 72 72 S 13 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 71 71 S 12 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 70 70 S 12 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 69 69 S 10 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 78 79 SW 10 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 84 86 SW 9 8796 6200 0 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 87 89 SW 8 11100 8710 2510 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 89 91 W 8 15048 10186 3986 White 8
12 Noon Wed 91 93 W 8 15467 11543 5343 White 10
1 PM Wed 92 94 W 8 15671 13892 7692 White 11
2 PM Wed 93 94 W 10 15671 13892 7692 White 11
3 PM Wed 90 91 W 12 15048 10186 3986 White 8
4 PM Wed 90 90 W 12 11651 9469 3269 Blue 7
5 PM Wed 90 90 SW 12 11651 9469 3269 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 90 90 SW 10 11651 9469 3269 Blue 7
7 PM Wed 88 88 SW 10 10295 7897 1697 Blue 5
8 PM Wed 84 84 SW 9 7070 6200 0 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 80 80 SW 9 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 78 78 SW 9 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 77 77 SW 12 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 75 75 SW 12 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 73 73 SW 12 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 72 72 S 10 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 71 71 S 10 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 69 69 S 9 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 68 68 SW 8 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 67 67 SW 8 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 66 66 SW 8 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 76 76 SW 8 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 82 82 W 8 5412 6200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 84 85 W 8 7968 6200 0 Blue 2
11 AM Thu 86 88 NW 9 10295 7897 1697 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 88 90 NW 9 11651 9469 3269 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 90 93 NW 10 15467 11543 5343 White 10
2 PM Thu 90 92 NW 10 15259 10998 4798 White 9
3 PM Thu 88 90 NW 10 11651 9469 3269 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 88 89 NW 12 11100 8710 2510 Blue 6
5 PM Thu 88 88 NW 12 10295 7897 1697 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 87 87 W 12 9568 7018 818 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 86 86 W 10 8796 6200 0 Blue 3
8 PM Thu 82 82 W 10 5412 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 79 79 W 10 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 77 77 W 9 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 76 76 W 9 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 74 74 W 8 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 72 72 W 8 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 72 72 W 8 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 70 70 W 8 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 69 69 W 7 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 69 69 W 7 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 68 68 W 7 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 67 67 W 8 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 76 76 W 8 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 82 82 W 8 5412 6200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 86 87 W 8 9568 7018 818 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 88 90 NW 9 11651 9469 3269 Blue 7
12 Noon Fri 90 92 NW 9 15259 10998 4798 White 9
1 PM Fri 91 93 NW 10 15467 11543 5343 White 10
2 PM Fri 92 94 NW 10 15671 13892 7692 White 11
3 PM Fri 90 92 NW 12 15259 10998 4798 White 9
4 PM Fri 89 90 NW 12 11651 9469 3269 Blue 7
5 PM Fri 89 89 NW 12 11100 8710 2510 Blue 6
6 PM Fri 89 89 NW 12 11100 8710 2510 Blue 6
7 PM Fri 87 87 NW 12 9568 7018 818 Blue 4
8 PM Fri 83 83 W 12 6079 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 80 80 W 10 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 78 78 W 10 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 77 77 W 9 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 74 74 W 9 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 73 73 W 9 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 72 72 SW 9 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 71 71 SW 9 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 69 69 SW 9 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 69 69 SW 10 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 68 68 SW 10 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 67 67 SW 10 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 76 76 SW 10 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 82 83 W 10 6079 6200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 85 87 W 10 9568 7018 818 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 87 90 W 9 11651 9469 3269 Blue 7
12 Noon Sat 89 93 NW 9 15467 11543 5343 White 10
1 PM Sat 90 94 NW 9 15671 13892 7692 White 11
2 PM Sat 91 94 NW 10 15671 13892 7692 White 11
3 PM Sat 89 91 W 10 15048 10186 3986 White 8
4 PM Sat 88 89 W 10 11100 8710 2510 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 88 88 W 10 10295 7897 1697 Blue 5
6 PM Sat 88 88 W 10 10295 7897 1697 Blue 5
7 PM Sat 86 86 W 10 8796 6200 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sat 82 82 W 10 5412 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 79 79 W 10 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 77 77 W 10 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 76 76 SW 9 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 74 74 SW 9 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 72 72 SW 9 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 71 71 SW 9 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 70 70 SW 9 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 68 68 SW 8 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 68 68 SW 8 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 67 67 SW 8 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 66 66 SW 8 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 75 75 W 8 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 80 81 W 8 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 83 85 W 8 7968 6200 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 85 87 W 8 9568 7018 818 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 87 90 W 8 11651 9469 3269 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 88 91 W 9 15048 10186 3986 White 8
2 PM Sun 89 91 W 9 15048 10186 3986 White 8
3 PM Sun 87 89 W 10 11100 8710 2510 Blue 6
4 PM Sun 86 87 W 10 9568 7018 818 Blue 4
5 PM Sun 86 86 W 12 8796 6200 0 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 86 86 W 12 8796 6200 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sun 84 84 W 12 7070 6200 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 81 81 W 12 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 78 78 W 10 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 76 76 W 10 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 75 75 SW 9 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 72 72 SW 9 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 71 71 SW 8 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 70 70 SW 7 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 69 69 SW 7 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 67 67 SW 6 4947 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 67 67 SW 6 4947 6200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com