Detailed Predictions for: Box Canyon
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 31.8125, -110.7742, 6200
LZ Altitude (f): 4450
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

2 OCT 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 59 59 SSE 8 12 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 58 58 SSE 8 11 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 58 58 SSE 9 11 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 56 56 SE 8 11 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 57 57 SE 8 10 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 56 56 SE 9 11 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 55 55 SE 10 12 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 59 59 SE 9 12 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 65 65 SE 11 13 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 73 75 SE 11 14 11127 9250 3050 White 8
10 AM Sun 77 80 SSE 11 14 12192 12192 5992 White 13
11 AM Sun 79 83 SSE 10 17 12823 12823 6623 White 16
12 Noon Sun 80 84 SSE 10 17 13034 13034 6834 White 17
1 PM Sun 81 85 SSE 9 16 13243 13243 7043 White 18
2 PM Sun 80 83 S 9 16 12823 12823 6623 White 16
3 PM Sun 80 82 S 9 16 12613 12613 6413 White 15
4 PM Sun 79 80 WNW 6 13 12192 12192 5992 White 13
5 PM Sun 75 75 E 6 12 11127 9250 3050 White 8
6 PM Sun 71 71 ESE 6 11 8952 6521 321 Blue 4
7 PM Sun 68 68 ESE 5 9 6549 6200 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 66 66 ESE 6 10 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 64 64 ESE 6 10 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 63 63 SE 6 11 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 61 61 SE 8 12 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 60 60 SE 9 12 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 60 60 SE 9 12 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 58 58 SE 9 13 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 57 57 SSE 10 13 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 57 57 SSE 9 12 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 56 56 SSE 9 12 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 55 55 SSE 10 12 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 59 59 SSE 8 11 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 66 66 SE 10 13 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 74 76 SE 9 12 11342 10951 4751 White 9
10 AM Mon 78 82 SE 8 12 12613 12613 6413 White 15
11 AM Mon 79 83 SE 8 13 12823 12823 6623 White 16
12 Noon Mon 81 86 SE 8 13 13450 13450 7250 White 19
1 PM Mon 82 87 SSE 8 14 13659 13659 7459 White 20
2 PM Mon 82 86 SSE 8 14 13450 13450 7250 White 19
3 PM Mon 81 83 S 8 14 12823 12823 6623 White 16
4 PM Mon 79 80 S 8 14 12192 12192 5992 White 13
5 PM Mon 76 76 S 8 13 11342 10951 4751 White 9
6 PM Mon 73 73 S 8 12 10695 8569 2369 White 6
7 PM Mon 69 69 S 6 11 8166 6200 0 Blue 2
8 PM Mon 65 65 S 6 10 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 64 64 S 6 10 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 63 63 SSE 6 11 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 62 62 SSE 6 11 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 61 61 SSE 6 11 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 59 59 SE 6 11 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 58 58 SE 6 11 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 57 57 SE 6 11 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 56 56 SE 8 11 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 56 56 SE 8 11 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 58 58 SE 8 11 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 61 61 SSE 9 11 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 65 65 SSE 9 11 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 70 72 S 9 11 9444 7991 1791 Blue 5
10 AM Tue 74 77 SW 8 12 11556 11468 5268 White 10
11 AM Tue 78 80 W 8 13 12192 12192 5992 White 13
12 Noon Tue 79 82 W 9 14 12613 12613 6413 White 15
1 PM Tue 80 83 WNW 9 16 12823 12823 6623 White 16
2 PM Tue 79 81 WNW 10 17 12403 12403 6203 White 14
3 PM Tue 78 79 WNW 10 17 11980 11980 5780 White 12
4 PM Tue 76 76 W 10 17 11342 10951 4751 White 9
5 PM Tue 73 73 WSW 9 16 10695 8569 2369 White 6
6 PM Tue 69 69 SW 8 14 8166 6200 0 Blue 2
7 PM Tue 65 65 S 6 13 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 62 62 SSE 6 12 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 60 60 SSE 6 12 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 59 59 SSE 8 12 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 59 59 SSE 8 12 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 58 58 SSE 8 12 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 57 57 SSE 8 11 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 56 56 SSE 8 11 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 54 54 SSE 8 11 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 53 53 SE 8 11 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 54 54 SE 8 11 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 56 56 SE 8 11 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 60 60 SE 9 12 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 64 64 SE 9 12 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 68 70 E 9 13 8606 6200 0 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 72 75 NNE 9 13 11127 9250 3050 White 8
11 AM Wed 76 79 N 9 14 11980 11980 5780 White 12
12 Noon Wed 78 82 N 9 16 12613 12613 6413 White 15
1 PM Wed 78 82 NNW 10 16 12613 12613 6413 White 15
2 PM Wed 77 80 NNW 10 16 12192 12192 5992 White 13
3 PM Wed 77 79 NNW 10 16 11980 11980 5780 White 12
4 PM Wed 76 77 NNW 10 16 11556 11468 5268 White 10
5 PM Wed 73 73 NNW 9 14 10695 8569 2369 White 6
6 PM Wed 69 69 N 8 13 8166 6200 0 Blue 2
7 PM Wed 65 65 E 6 12 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 62 62 SE 6 11 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 60 60 SE 6 11 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 59 59 SE 8 12 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 58 58 SE 8 13 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 57 57 SE 8 13 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 56 56 ESE 9 12 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 55 ESE 9 12 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 54 54 ESE 9 12 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 53 53 ESE 10 12 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 53 53 ESE 10 13 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 55 55 ESE 11 14 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 59 59 ESE 11 17 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 63 63 ESE 12 18 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 68 70 ESE 13 19 8606 6200 0 Blue 3
10 AM Thu 73 76 E 13 20 11342 10951 4751 White 9
11 AM Thu 76 80 E 14 20 12192 12192 5992 White 13
12 Noon Thu 77 81 E 14 20 12403 12403 6203 White 14
1 PM Thu 76 80 E 14 19 12192 12192 5992 White 13
2 PM Thu 74 77 E 14 19 11556 11468 5268 White 10
3 PM Thu 73 75 E 14 19 11127 9250 3050 White 8
4 PM Thu 71 72 E 13 18 9444 7991 1791 Blue 5
5 PM Thu 69 69 E 13 18 8166 6200 0 Blue 2
6 PM Thu 66 66 E 12 17 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 63 63 E 12 16 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 60 60 E 11 14 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 59 59 E 11 14 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 58 58 ESE 11 16 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 57 57 ESE 11 16 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 56 56 ESE 11 16 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 55 55 ESE 12 16 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 54 54 ESE 12 16 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 53 53 ESE 12 16 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 52 52 E 12 16 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 53 53 E 12 16 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 55 55 E 13 16 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 58 58 E 16 17 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 61 61 E 17 18 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 66 68 E 18 21 6549 6200 0 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 70 73 ESE 19 25 10695 8569 2369 White 6
11 AM Fri 73 77 ESE 20 27 11556 11468 5268 White 10
12 Noon Fri 75 79 ESE 20 28 11980 11980 5780 White 12
1 PM Fri 75 79 E 19 27 11980 11980 5780 White 12
2 PM Fri 75 78 E 18 26 11769 11769 5569 White 11
3 PM Fri 74 76 E 17 25 11342 10951 4751 White 9
4 PM Fri 72 73 ESE 16 24 10695 8569 2369 White 6
5 PM Fri 70 70 ESE 14 21 8606 6200 0 Blue 3
6 PM Fri 67 67 ESE 13 19 5815 6200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 63 63 ESE 12 17 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 60 60 ESE 11 14 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 58 58 ESE 11 14 4934 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 57 57 ESE 11 14 4934 6200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com