Detailed Predictions for: Box Canyon
Launch Altitude (f): 6200
LZ Altitude (f): 4450
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

19 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 52 52 S 5 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 48 48 S 6 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 45 45 S 7 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 53 53 S 7 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 63 63 S 8 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 69 69 SW 5 9376 6225 25 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 70 70 SW 6 11182 7463 1263 Blue 5
12 Noon Tue 68 68 SW 6 8510 6200 0 Blue 3
1 PM Tue 67 67 S 7 7556 6200 0 Blue 2
2 PM Tue 67 67 S 7 7556 6200 0 Blue 2
3 PM Tue 66 66 S 9 6265 6200 0 Blue 1
4 PM Tue 64 64 S 10 4954 6200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 60 60 S 10 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 58 58 S 13 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 56 56 S 13 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 56 56 S 14 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 55 55 S 17 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 55 55 S 14 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 53 53 S 17 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 53 53 S 23 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 52 52 S 25 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 52 52 S 26 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 52 52 S 28 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 51 51 S 26 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 50 50 S 22 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 50 50 SW 21 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 48 48 S 23 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 52 52 S 22 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 56 56 S 25 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 58 59 S 23 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 58 58 S 25 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 58 58 S 28 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 59 59 S 25 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 58 58 S 25 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 56 56 S 23 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 53 53 S 23 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 50 50 S 25 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 48 48 S 29 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 46 46 S 29 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 45 45 S 25 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 44 44 SW 23 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 44 44 SW 24 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 44 44 SW 24 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 44 44 SW 23 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 45 45 SW 21 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 45 45 SW 18 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 44 44 SW 21 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 42 42 SW 22 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 41 41 SW 20 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 41 41 SW 17 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 42 42 SW 15 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 43 43 SW 15 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 46 46 SW 16 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 48 48 SW 15 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 49 49 SW 16 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 50 50 SW 13 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 50 50 SW 13 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 49 49 SW 12 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 47 47 SW 13 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 44 44 W 12 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 41 41 W 10 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 40 40 SW 9 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 39 39 SW 8 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 38 38 SW 7 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 38 38 SW 7 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 37 37 SW 6 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 37 37 S 5 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 37 37 S 5 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 38 38 S 5 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 38 38 S 5 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 37 37 S 3 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 36 36 S 3 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 36 36 S 5 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 36 36 S 5 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 38 38 S 5 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 40 40 S 5 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 44 44 S 5 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 48 49 SE 6 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 51 53 SE 6 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 53 55 SE 6 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 54 56 E 6 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 54 56 E 7 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 52 53 NE 7 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 50 50 NE 7 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 47 47 N 7 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 44 44 N 7 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 41 41 NE 7 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 38 38 NE 7 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 37 37 E 6 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 36 36 E 6 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 36 36 E 6 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 36 36 SE 5 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 36 36 SE 5 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 36 36 S 5 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 35 35 S 5 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 34 34 S 5 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 34 34 S 5 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 35 35 SE 5 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 37 37 SE 6 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 40 40 SE 7 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 45 45 SE 7 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 50 51 SE 8 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 56 58 E 8 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 59 61 E 8 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 60 62 E 8 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 60 62 E 8 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 58 59 E 8 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 54 54 E 7 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 51 51 NE 7 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 48 48 E 7 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 45 45 E 7 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 43 43 E 6 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 41 41 E 6 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 40 40 SE 6 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 39 39 SE 6 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 38 38 SE 6 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 38 38 S 6 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 38 38 S 5 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 38 38 S 5 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 37 37 S 5 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 37 37 S 5 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 38 38 S 6 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 40 40 S 6 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 43 43 S 6 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 49 49 S 6 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 55 55 S 7 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 60 61 S 7 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 63 64 S 7 4954 6200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 64 65 S 7 5187 6200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 62 62 SW 7 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 60 60 SW 7 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 57 57 W 7 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 53 53 W 7 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 50 50 W 7 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 47 47 SW 7 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 44 44 SW 6 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 42 42 SW 6 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 41 41 SW 6 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 40 40 S 5 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 40 40 S 5 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 40 40 S 5 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 40 40 S 5 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 39 39 S 5 4908 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 39 39 S 5 4908 6200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com