Detailed Predictions for: Box Canyon
Launch Altitude (f): 6200
LZ Altitude (f): 4450
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

27 MAY 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sun 52 52 N 3 4921 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 54 55 NE 3 4921 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 63 65 E 5 6743 6200 0 Blue 3
9 AM Sun 70 74 E 6 9571 8621 2421 Blue 12
10 AM Sun 74 80 SE 6 10911 10159 3959 Blue 18
11 AM Sun 77 84 SW 7 13290 11419 5219 Blue 22
12 Noon Sun 80 88 W 8 15354 13682 7482 Blue 26
1 PM Sun 83 91 W 10 18268 15192 8992 Blue 29
2 PM Sun 84 91 W 13 18268 15192 8992 Blue 29
3 PM Sun 85 90 W 15 17748 14703 8503 Blue 28
4 PM Sun 86 89 W 16 16578 14200 8000 Blue 27
5 PM Sun 85 86 W 16 14353 12592 6392 Blue 24
6 PM Sun 83 83 W 16 12730 10820 4620 Blue 21
7 PM Sun 81 81 W 15 11544 10379 4179 Blue 19
8 PM Sun 75 75 W 14 9778 8932 2732 Blue 13
9 PM Sun 69 69 W 12 7998 6985 785 Blue 7
10 PM Sun 66 66 W 12 7000 6200 0 Blue 4
11 PM Sun 65 65 W 10 6743 6200 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Mon 62 62 W 10 5361 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 60 60 W 9 4937 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 59 59 W 9 4921 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 58 58 W 8 4921 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 57 57 NW 7 4921 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 55 55 N 6 4921 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 54 54 N 6 4921 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 56 57 N 6 4921 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 66 68 NE 6 7647 6730 530 Blue 6
9 AM Mon 73 77 NE 7 10193 9542 3342 Blue 15
10 AM Mon 77 83 NE 7 12730 10820 4620 Blue 21
11 AM Mon 80 87 NW 7 14861 13146 6946 Blue 25
12 Noon Mon 83 91 NW 8 18268 15192 8992 Blue 29
1 PM Mon 86 94 NW 9 19347 18122 11922 Blue 32
2 PM Mon 87 93 W 12 18924 17297 11097 Blue 31
3 PM Mon 88 93 W 14 18924 17297 11097 Blue 31
4 PM Mon 89 92 W 15 18598 16084 9884 Blue 30
5 PM Mon 88 89 W 15 16578 14200 8000 Blue 27
6 PM Mon 86 86 W 15 14353 12592 6392 Blue 24
7 PM Mon 84 84 W 14 13290 11419 5219 Blue 22
8 PM Mon 78 78 NW 13 10416 9748 3548 Blue 16
9 PM Mon 72 72 NW 12 8969 7968 1768 Blue 10
10 PM Mon 70 70 W 10 8339 7270 1070 Blue 8
11 PM Mon 68 68 W 10 7647 6730 530 Blue 6
12 Midnight Tue 66 66 W 9 7000 6200 0 Blue 4
1 AM Tue 63 63 W 8 5942 6200 0 Blue 1
2 AM Tue 63 63 W 8 5942 6200 0 Blue 1
3 AM Tue 61 61 W 7 5123 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 60 60 W 7 4937 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 58 58 N 6 4921 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 58 58 N 5 4921 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 59 59 N 5 4921 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 69 71 N 5 8656 7621 1421 Blue 9
9 AM Tue 76 80 N 5 10911 10159 3959 Blue 18
10 AM Tue 80 85 N 6 13830 12018 5818 Blue 23
11 AM Tue 84 90 NW 6 17748 14703 8503 Blue 28
12 Noon Tue 87 94 NW 7 19347 18122 11922 Blue 32
1 PM Tue 90 97 NW 8 20939 19112 12912 White 35
2 PM Tue 91 97 NW 9 20939 19112 12912 White 35
3 PM Tue 92 97 NW 10 20939 19112 12912 White 35
4 PM Tue 93 96 NW 12 20299 18774 12574 Blue 34
5 PM Tue 92 93 W 13 18924 17297 11097 Blue 31
6 PM Tue 90 90 W 14 17748 14703 8503 Blue 28
7 PM Tue 88 88 W 13 15354 13682 7482 Blue 26
8 PM Tue 82 82 W 13 12149 10600 4400 Blue 20
9 PM Tue 75 75 W 12 9778 8932 2732 Blue 13
10 PM Tue 73 73 W 12 9280 8308 2108 Blue 11
11 PM Tue 71 71 SW 10 8656 7621 1421 Blue 9
12 Midnight Wed 69 69 SW 9 7998 6985 785 Blue 7
1 AM Wed 66 66 SW 9 7000 6200 0 Blue 4
2 AM Wed 66 66 SW 9 7000 6200 0 Blue 4
3 AM Wed 64 64 SW 9 6484 6200 0 Blue 2
4 AM Wed 63 63 SW 9 5942 6200 0 Blue 1
5 AM Wed 61 61 S 9 5123 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 61 61 S 9 5123 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 62 63 S 9 5942 6200 0 Blue 1
8 AM Wed 71 73 S 10 9280 8308 2108 Blue 11
9 AM Wed 78 82 S 10 12149 10600 4400 Blue 20
10 AM Wed 82 88 S 12 15354 13682 7482 Blue 26
11 AM Wed 85 93 SW 12 18924 17297 11097 Blue 31
12 Noon Wed 88 97 SW 13 20939 19112 12912 White 35
1 PM Wed 91 99 SW 14 21323 20060 13860 White 37
2 PM Wed 92 99 SW 15 21323 20060 13860 White 37
3 PM Wed 92 97 SW 16 20939 19112 12912 White 35
4 PM Wed 93 96 SW 17 20299 18774 12574 Blue 34
5 PM Wed 92 93 SW 17 18924 17297 11097 Blue 31
6 PM Wed 90 90 SW 17 17748 14703 8503 Blue 28
7 PM Wed 88 88 SW 17 15354 13682 7482 Blue 26
8 PM Wed 81 81 SW 16 11544 10379 4179 Blue 19
9 PM Wed 74 74 SW 15 9571 8621 2421 Blue 12
10 PM Wed 72 72 S 14 8969 7968 1768 Blue 10
11 PM Wed 70 70 S 13 8339 7270 1070 Blue 8
12 Midnight Thu 67 67 S 13 7293 6474 274 Blue 5
1 AM Thu 64 64 S 12 6484 6200 0 Blue 2
2 AM Thu 64 64 S 12 6484 6200 0 Blue 2
3 AM Thu 62 62 S 12 5361 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 61 61 S 12 5123 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 59 59 S 12 4921 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 58 58 S 12 4921 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 60 61 S 13 5123 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 69 71 S 13 8656 7621 1421 Blue 9
9 AM Thu 76 80 S 14 10911 10159 3959 Blue 18
10 AM Thu 80 86 S 15 14353 12592 6392 Blue 24
11 AM Thu 83 90 S 16 17748 14703 8503 Blue 28
12 Noon Thu 87 95 SW 16 19830 18449 12249 Blue 33
1 PM Thu 90 98 SW 17 21131 19593 13393 White 36
2 PM Thu 91 98 SW 18 21131 19593 13393 White 36
3 PM Thu 91 96 SW 20 20299 18774 12574 Blue 34
4 PM Thu 92 95 SW 20 19830 18449 12249 Blue 33
5 PM Thu 91 92 SW 20 18598 16084 9884 Blue 30
6 PM Thu 89 89 SW 20 16578 14200 8000 Blue 27
7 PM Thu 87 87 SW 18 14861 13146 6946 Blue 25
8 PM Thu 80 80 SW 17 10911 10159 3959 Blue 18
9 PM Thu 73 73 SW 15 9280 8308 2108 Blue 11
10 PM Thu 71 71 SW 14 8656 7621 1421 Blue 9
11 PM Thu 69 69 S 12 7998 6985 785 Blue 7
12 Midnight Fri 66 66 S 10 7000 6200 0 Blue 4
1 AM Fri 63 63 S 10 5942 6200 0 Blue 1
2 AM Fri 63 63 S 10 5942 6200 0 Blue 1
3 AM Fri 61 61 S 10 5123 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 60 60 S 10 4937 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 58 58 S 10 4921 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 58 58 S 12 4921 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 59 60 S 12 4937 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 69 71 S 12 8656 7621 1421 Blue 9
9 AM Fri 76 80 S 13 10911 10159 3959 Blue 18
10 AM Fri 80 86 SW 13 14353 12592 6392 Blue 24
11 AM Fri 83 91 SW 14 18268 15192 8992 Blue 29
12 Noon Fri 86 94 SW 14 19347 18122 11922 Blue 32
1 PM Fri 90 98 SW 15 21131 19593 13393 White 36
2 PM Fri 90 97 SW 15 20939 19112 12912 White 35
3 PM Fri 91 96 SW 16 20299 18774 12574 Blue 34
4 PM Fri 92 95 W 16 19830 18449 12249 Blue 33
5 PM Fri 91 92 W 16 18598 16084 9884 Blue 30
6 PM Fri 89 89 W 16 16578 14200 8000 Blue 27
7 PM Fri 87 87 W 15 14861 13146 6946 Blue 25
8 PM Fri 80 80 W 13 10911 10159 3959 Blue 18
9 PM Fri 73 73 W 12 9280 8308 2108 Blue 11
10 PM Fri 71 71 W 10 8656 7621 1421 Blue 9
11 PM Fri 69 69 W 8 7998 6985 785 Blue 7
12 Midnight Sat 66 66 W 7 7000 6200 0 Blue 4
1 AM Sat 63 63 SW 7 5942 6200 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sat 63 63 S 7 5942 6200 0 Blue 1
3 AM Sat 61 61 S 7 5123 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 60 60 SE 7 4937 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 58 58 E 7 4921 6200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com