Detailed Predictions for: Box Canyon
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 31.8125, -110.7742, 6200
LZ Altitude (f): 4450
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

16 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 69 69 E 5 9 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 68 68 ENE 6 10 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 67 67 E 6 10 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 66 66 E 5 9 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 66 66 SSE 6 10 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 65 65 SSE 8 12 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 62 62 SE 8 12 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 63 63 ESE 8 12 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 75 76 ESE 8 12 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 84 86 E 8 12 15853 15607 9407 Blue 7
10 AM Thu 88 92 E 6 10 17102 16466 10266 Blue 13
11 AM Thu 90 96 E 4 6 18464 17182 10982 Blue 17
12 Noon Thu 91 97 ESE 4 6 18857 17316 11116 White 18
1 PM Thu 90 95 WNW 3 5 17978 17048 10848 Blue 16
2 PM Thu 91 95 NW 6 10 17978 17048 10848 Blue 16
3 PM Thu 90 92 NW 14 23 17102 16466 10266 Blue 13
4 PM Thu 89 90 SSE 8 12 16832 15916 9716 Blue 11
5 PM Thu 88 88 NW 12 19 16248 15742 9542 Blue 9
6 PM Thu 82 82 NW 10 16 14231 7931 1731 Blue 3
7 PM Thu 76 76 NW 6 10 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 73 73 NNW 5 9 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 71 71 W 3 5 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 70 70 SW 4 6 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 69 69 SSW 5 9 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 67 67 W 3 5 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 68 68 ESE 5 9 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 66 66 ESE 5 9 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 65 65 S 9 13 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 64 64 S 6 10 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 63 63 S 4 6 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 62 62 SE 8 12 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 68 68 SSE 6 10 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 76 76 W 3 5 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 81 82 W 4 6 14231 7931 1731 Blue 3
10 AM Fri 84 87 WNW 4 6 15950 15674 9474 Blue 8
11 AM Fri 87 90 NW 4 6 16832 15916 9716 Blue 11
12 Noon Fri 87 90 WNW 4 6 16832 15916 9716 Blue 11
1 PM Fri 86 89 W 6 10 16596 15819 9619 Blue 10
2 PM Fri 85 87 SW 11 17 15950 15674 9474 Blue 8
3 PM Fri 84 86 E 14 23 15853 15607 9407 Blue 7
4 PM Fri 83 84 ESE 10 16 15698 9439 3239 Blue 5
5 PM Fri 81 81 SW 9 13 9535 6824 624 Blue 2
6 PM Fri 77 77 SW 6 10 5401 6200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 72 72 E 8 12 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 68 68 ESE 6 10 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 66 66 SE 12 19 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 65 65 ESE 8 12 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 65 65 SE 5 9 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 65 65 SSE 4 6 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 65 65 S 4 6 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 64 64 S 4 6 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 62 62 S 3 5 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 61 61 SSE 3 5 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 62 62 SE 2 3 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 65 65 SE 2 3 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 69 69 ESE 2 3 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 74 75 E 2 3 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 79 81 E 3 5 9535 6824 624 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 83 87 ENE 4 6 15950 15674 9474 Blue 8
11 AM Sat 86 91 ENE 5 9 16967 16121 9921 Blue 12
12 Noon Sat 88 94 NE 5 9 17478 16914 10714 Blue 15
1 PM Sat 89 95 NNE 6 10 17978 17048 10848 Blue 16
2 PM Sat 89 93 N 6 10 17236 16780 10580 Blue 14
3 PM Sat 88 91 NNW 6 10 16967 16121 9921 Blue 12
4 PM Sat 88 90 WNW 8 12 16832 15916 9716 Blue 11
5 PM Sat 85 85 WNW 8 12 15765 13432 7232 Blue 6
6 PM Sat 80 80 W 8 12 8793 6200 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sat 75 75 W 6 10 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 71 71 WSW 6 10 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 68 68 SSW 5 9 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 67 67 S 4 6 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 67 67 S 4 6 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 67 67 SSE 3 5 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 66 66 SE 2 3 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 65 65 ESE 2 3 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 64 64 ESE 2 3 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 62 62 ESE 2 3 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 63 63 ESE 2 3 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 66 66 SE 2 3 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 70 70 SSE 3 5 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 75 76 SSE 3 5 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 80 82 S 3 5 14231 7931 1731 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 85 89 S 4 6 16596 15819 9619 Blue 10
11 AM Sun 88 94 SSW 5 9 17478 16914 10714 Blue 15
12 Noon Sun 90 97 SSW 6 10 18857 17316 11116 White 18
1 PM Sun 90 96 SSW 8 12 18464 17182 10982 Blue 17
2 PM Sun 90 95 SW 10 16 17978 17048 10848 Blue 16
3 PM Sun 90 94 SW 11 17 17478 16914 10714 Blue 15
4 PM Sun 88 90 WSW 12 19 16832 15916 9716 Blue 11
5 PM Sun 86 86 WSW 13 20 15853 15607 9407 Blue 7
6 PM Sun 81 81 WSW 12 19 9535 6824 624 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 76 76 SW 12 19 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 71 71 SW 11 17 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 69 69 SSW 9 13 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 68 68 SSW 8 12 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 68 68 S 6 10 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 68 68 S 5 9 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 67 67 S 4 6 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 65 65 SSE 3 5 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 63 63 SSE 3 5 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 61 61 SSE 3 5 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 61 61 SSE 3 5 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 64 64 S 4 6 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 69 69 S 5 9 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 74 75 S 8 12 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 80 82 SSW 9 13 14231 7931 1731 Blue 3
10 AM Mon 84 88 SW 11 17 16248 15742 9542 Blue 9
11 AM Mon 87 93 SW 12 19 17236 16780 10580 Blue 14
12 Noon Mon 89 96 SW 13 20 18464 17182 10982 Blue 17
1 PM Mon 89 96 SW 14 23 18464 17182 10982 Blue 17
2 PM Mon 89 95 WSW 16 24 17978 17048 10848 Blue 16
3 PM Mon 88 92 WSW 16 24 17102 16466 10266 Blue 13
4 PM Mon 87 89 WSW 16 24 16596 15819 9619 Blue 10
5 PM Mon 85 86 WSW 16 24 15853 15607 9407 Blue 7
6 PM Mon 80 80 WSW 16 24 8793 6200 0 Blue 1
7 PM Mon 74 74 SW 13 20 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 69 69 SW 12 19 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 67 67 SSW 11 17 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 66 66 SSW 9 13 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 65 65 S 6 10 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 64 64 S 5 9 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 64 64 S 4 6 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 62 62 S 3 5 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 60 60 S 3 5 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 58 58 S 3 5 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 58 58 S 3 5 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 60 60 S 4 6 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 65 65 SSW 4 6 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 70 71 SW 5 9 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 75 77 WSW 5 9 5401 6200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 79 83 W 6 10 15630 8709 2509 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 82 88 W 8 12 16248 15742 9542 Blue 9
12 Noon Tue 84 91 W 8 12 16967 16121 9921 Blue 12
1 PM Tue 85 92 W 9 13 17102 16466 10266 Blue 13
2 PM Tue 85 91 WNW 10 16 16967 16121 9921 Blue 12
3 PM Tue 86 90 WNW 10 16 16832 15916 9716 Blue 11
4 PM Tue 85 87 WNW 11 17 15950 15674 9474 Blue 8
5 PM Tue 83 84 WNW 11 17 15698 9439 3239 Blue 5
6 PM Tue 78 78 NW 10 16 6890 6200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 72 72 NNW 10 16 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 67 67 N 9 13 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 64 64 NNE 8 12 4905 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 63 63 NE 6 10 4905 6200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com