Detailed Predictions for: Box Canyon
Launch Altitude (f): 6200
LZ Altitude (f): 4450
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

12Z 23 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sat 57 57 SW 8 4843 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 57 57 SW 7 4843 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 58 58 S 7 4843 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 66 68 S 8 10502 9611 3411 Blue 9
10 AM Sat 70 73 S 10 11810 11001 4801 Blue 14
11 AM Sat 72 76 S 14 12971 11727 5527 Blue 17
12 Noon Sat 74 80 SW 17 14379 13288 7088 White 21
1 PM Sat 76 82 SW 18 14797 14797 8597 White 23
2 PM Sat 76 81 SW 20 14588 13913 7713 White 22
3 PM Sat 76 79 SW 20 14168 12874 6674 White 20
4 PM Sat 76 78 SW 20 13959 12496 6296 White 19
5 PM Sat 75 75 SW 18 12588 11338 5138 Blue 16
6 PM Sat 75 75 SW 17 12588 11338 5138 Blue 16
7 PM Sat 71 71 SW 15 11186 10466 4266 Blue 12
8 PM Sat 63 63 W 14 8651 6786 586 Blue 4
9 PM Sat 59 59 W 12 5922 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 57 57 W 10 4843 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 54 54 W 10 4843 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 52 52 W 9 4843 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 51 51 W 8 4843 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 51 51 W 6 4843 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 50 50 W 5 4843 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 50 50 NW 5 4843 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 48 48 NE 5 4843 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 47 47 E 5 4843 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 47 47 E 5 4843 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 49 50 E 5 4843 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 60 62 E 5 7712 6200 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 66 70 NE 5 11031 10258 4058 Blue 11
11 AM Sun 70 76 N 5 12971 11727 5527 Blue 17
12 Noon Sun 72 78 NW 5 13959 12496 6296 White 19
1 PM Sun 75 81 NW 6 14588 13913 7713 White 22
2 PM Sun 76 81 NW 8 14588 13913 7713 White 22
3 PM Sun 76 80 NW 9 14379 13288 7088 White 21
4 PM Sun 76 78 NW 10 13959 12496 6296 White 19
5 PM Sun 75 75 NW 13 12588 11338 5138 Blue 16
6 PM Sun 75 75 NW 13 12588 11338 5138 Blue 16
7 PM Sun 70 70 NW 12 11031 10258 4058 Blue 11
8 PM Sun 63 63 NW 10 8651 6786 586 Blue 4
9 PM Sun 59 59 NW 9 5922 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 57 57 NW 9 4843 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 54 54 NW 8 4843 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 52 52 NW 8 4843 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 51 51 NW 7 4843 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 51 51 NW 7 4843 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 50 50 NW 6 4843 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 50 50 N 6 4843 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 48 48 NE 5 4843 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 46 46 E 5 4843 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 47 47 E 5 4843 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 49 50 SE 5 4843 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 60 62 SE 5 7712 6200 0 Blue 3
10 AM Mon 66 70 S 5 11031 10258 4058 Blue 11
11 AM Mon 70 76 SW 6 12971 11727 5527 Blue 17
12 Noon Mon 73 79 SW 7 14168 12874 6674 White 20
1 PM Mon 76 82 SW 8 14797 14797 8597 White 23
2 PM Mon 76 81 W 10 14588 13913 7713 White 22
3 PM Mon 76 80 W 12 14379 13288 7088 White 21
4 PM Mon 76 78 W 13 13959 12496 6296 White 19
5 PM Mon 76 76 W 13 12971 11727 5527 Blue 17
6 PM Mon 76 76 W 12 12971 11727 5527 Blue 17
7 PM Mon 71 71 NW 10 11186 10466 4266 Blue 12
8 PM Mon 65 65 NW 8 9667 7654 1454 Blue 6
9 PM Mon 60 60 NW 7 6807 6200 0 Blue 1
10 PM Mon 59 59 NW 6 5922 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 56 56 NW 5 4843 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 54 54 NW 5 4843 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 53 53 N 5 4843 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 53 53 NE 5 4843 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 53 53 E 5 4843 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 52 52 E 5 4843 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 51 51 E 6 4843 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 49 49 E 6 4843 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 50 50 E 6 4843 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 52 53 SE 6 4843 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 63 65 SE 6 9667 7654 1454 Blue 6
10 AM Tue 68 72 SE 6 11418 10847 4647 Blue 13
11 AM Tue 72 77 S 6 13404 12111 5911 Blue 18
12 Noon Tue 75 80 S 6 14379 13288 7088 White 21
1 PM Tue 78 83 S 6 15006 15006 8806 White 24
2 PM Tue 79 83 S 6 15006 15006 8806 White 24
3 PM Tue 79 82 SW 6 14797 14797 8597 White 23
4 PM Tue 79 80 SW 6 14379 13288 7088 White 21
5 PM Tue 78 78 SW 6 13959 12496 6296 White 19
6 PM Tue 78 78 SW 6 13959 12496 6296 White 19
7 PM Tue 74 74 W 6 12200 11156 4956 Blue 15
8 PM Tue 67 67 W 6 10293 9216 3016 Blue 8
9 PM Tue 63 63 W 5 8651 6786 586 Blue 4
10 PM Tue 62 62 W 5 7712 6200 0 Blue 3
11 PM Tue 59 59 W 5 5922 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 57 57 NW 5 4843 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 56 56 W 5 4843 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 56 56 SW 5 4843 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 56 56 SW 6 4843 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 56 56 S 6 4843 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 54 54 SE 7 4843 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 53 53 SE 7 4843 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 53 53 SE 7 4843 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 55 55 SE 8 4843 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 65 67 SE 8 10293 9216 3016 Blue 8
10 AM Wed 71 74 SE 8 12200 11156 4956 Blue 15
11 AM Wed 74 78 SE 9 13959 12496 6296 White 19
12 Noon Wed 77 81 SE 9 14588 13913 7713 White 22
1 PM Wed 79 83 SE 9 15006 15006 8806 White 24
2 PM Wed 80 84 E 9 15214 15214 9014 White 25
3 PM Wed 80 82 E 9 14797 14797 8597 White 23
4 PM Wed 80 81 E 9 14588 13913 7713 White 22
5 PM Wed 80 80 E 9 14379 13288 7088 White 21
6 PM Wed 79 79 E 9 14168 12874 6674 White 20
7 PM Wed 76 76 E 10 12971 11727 5527 Blue 17
8 PM Wed 69 69 E 10 10875 10050 3850 Blue 10
9 PM Wed 66 66 E 12 10083 8541 2341 Blue 7
10 PM Wed 64 64 E 13 9268 7211 1011 Blue 5
11 PM Wed 62 62 E 14 7712 6200 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Thu 60 60 E 14 6807 6200 0 Blue 1
1 AM Thu 59 59 E 14 5922 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 59 59 E 13 5922 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 58 58 E 13 4843 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 58 E 12 4843 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 56 56 SE 12 4843 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 55 55 SE 10 4843 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 55 55 SE 10 4843 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 57 57 SE 10 4843 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 66 67 SE 9 10293 9216 3016 Blue 8
10 AM Thu 70 73 SE 9 11810 11001 4801 Blue 14
11 AM Thu 73 77 SE 9 13404 12111 5911 Blue 18
12 Noon Thu 76 80 SE 9 14379 13288 7088 White 21
1 PM Thu 78 82 SE 9 14797 14797 8597 White 23
2 PM Thu 78 82 SE 8 14797 14797 8597 White 23
3 PM Thu 78 80 SE 8 14379 13288 7088 White 21
4 PM Thu 78 79 SE 8 14168 12874 6674 White 20
5 PM Thu 78 78 SE 8 13959 12496 6296 White 19
6 PM Thu 78 78 SE 8 13959 12496 6296 White 19
7 PM Thu 74 74 SE 9 12200 11156 4956 Blue 15
8 PM Thu 69 69 SE 10 10875 10050 3850 Blue 10
9 PM Thu 65 65 SE 13 9667 7654 1454 Blue 6
10 PM Thu 64 64 E 14 9268 7211 1011 Blue 5
11 PM Thu 62 62 E 16 7712 6200 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Fri 60 60 E 17 6807 6200 0 Blue 1
1 AM Fri 59 59 E 17 5922 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 59 59 E 18 5922 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 59 59 E 17 5922 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 58 58 E 17 4843 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 57 57 E 17 4843 6200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com