Detailed Predictions for: Box Canyon
Launch Altitude (f): 6200
LZ Altitude (f): 4450
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Wed 60 60 S 5 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 59 59 S 5 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 63 64 S 3 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 72 74 SE 3 5690 6200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 78 82 S 3 13145 13145 6945 White 8
11 AM Wed 81 86 SW 3 13982 13982 7782 White 12
12 Noon Wed 84 89 W 5 14602 14602 8402 White 15
1 PM Wed 86 92 W 6 15218 15218 9018 White 18
2 PM Wed 86 91 W 7 15013 15013 8813 White 17
3 PM Wed 87 91 W 8 15013 15013 8813 White 17
4 PM Wed 88 90 W 8 14808 14808 8608 White 16
5 PM Wed 88 88 W 8 14397 14397 8197 White 14
6 PM Wed 85 85 W 7 13775 13775 7575 White 11
7 PM Wed 80 80 W 7 12721 9637 3437 White 6
8 PM Wed 74 74 W 6 5690 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 71 71 W 6 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 70 70 W 6 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 68 68 W 7 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 66 66 W 7 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 66 66 SW 7 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 64 64 SW 7 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 64 64 SW 7 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 63 63 SW 7 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 63 63 SW 7 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 62 62 S 7 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 60 60 S 7 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 64 65 SW 7 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 72 74 SW 7 5690 6200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 77 81 SW 8 12933 12933 6733 White 7
11 AM Thu 80 85 SW 9 13775 13775 7575 White 11
12 Noon Thu 82 88 SW 10 14397 14397 8197 White 14
1 PM Thu 84 90 SW 12 14808 14808 8608 White 16
2 PM Thu 85 90 SW 13 14808 14808 8608 White 16
3 PM Thu 86 89 SW 14 14602 14602 8402 White 15
4 PM Thu 86 88 SW 15 14397 14397 8197 White 14
5 PM Thu 86 86 SW 15 13982 13982 7782 White 12
6 PM Thu 84 84 SW 15 13567 13567 7367 White 10
7 PM Thu 78 78 SW 14 12295 7729 1529 White 4
8 PM Thu 72 72 SW 12 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 69 69 SW 10 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 68 68 SW 9 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 66 66 SW 9 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 64 64 SW 9 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 63 63 SW 9 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 62 62 S 8 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 62 62 S 8 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 61 61 S 8 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 60 60 S 8 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 59 59 S 8 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 58 58 S 8 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 62 63 S 8 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 71 73 S 8 5026 6200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 76 80 S 9 12721 9637 3437 White 6
11 AM Fri 80 86 SW 12 13982 13982 7782 White 12
12 Noon Fri 82 89 SW 14 14602 14602 8402 White 15
1 PM Fri 84 90 SW 15 14808 14808 8608 White 16
2 PM Fri 84 89 SW 16 14602 14602 8402 White 15
3 PM Fri 85 89 SW 16 14602 14602 8402 White 15
4 PM Fri 86 88 SW 16 14397 14397 8197 White 14
5 PM Fri 86 86 SW 15 13982 13982 7782 White 12
6 PM Fri 83 83 SW 14 13357 13357 7157 White 9
7 PM Fri 77 77 SW 12 9862 6200 0 Blue 3
8 PM Fri 71 71 SW 9 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 68 68 SW 7 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 66 66 SW 6 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 65 65 SW 6 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 62 62 SW 6 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 62 62 SW 6 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 60 60 S 6 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 60 60 S 6 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 59 59 S 6 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 59 59 S 7 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 57 57 S 7 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 56 56 S 7 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 60 61 S 8 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 70 72 S 8 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 75 79 S 8 12508 9034 2834 White 5
11 AM Sat 79 85 SW 9 13775 13775 7575 White 11
12 Noon Sat 81 87 SW 9 14190 14190 7990 White 13
1 PM Sat 84 90 SW 9 14808 14808 8608 White 16
2 PM Sat 84 89 SW 10 14602 14602 8402 White 15
3 PM Sat 85 89 SW 10 14602 14602 8402 White 15
4 PM Sat 86 88 SW 10 14397 14397 8197 White 14
5 PM Sat 86 86 W 10 13982 13982 7782 White 12
6 PM Sat 83 83 W 10 13357 13357 7157 White 9
7 PM Sat 77 77 W 9 9862 6200 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sat 71 71 W 9 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 68 68 W 8 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 67 67 W 7 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 65 65 W 6 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 63 63 W 5 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 62 62 W 5 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 61 61 W 3 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 61 61 SW 3 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 60 60 SW 3 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 59 59 S 3 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 58 58 S 3 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 57 57 S 3 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 61 62 S 5 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 70 72 S 6 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 74 77 S 6 9862 6200 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 78 81 S 7 12933 12933 6733 White 7
12 Noon Sun 80 84 S 7 13567 13567 7367 White 10
1 PM Sun 82 86 S 7 13982 13982 7782 White 12
2 PM Sun 82 85 S 7 13775 13775 7575 White 11
3 PM Sun 83 85 S 7 13775 13775 7575 White 11
4 PM Sun 84 85 S 6 13775 13775 7575 White 11
5 PM Sun 84 84 SW 6 13567 13567 7367 White 10
6 PM Sun 82 82 SW 6 13145 13145 6945 White 8
7 PM Sun 76 76 SW 6 9106 6200 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sun 71 71 SW 6 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 68 68 SW 6 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 68 68 SW 7 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 66 66 SW 7 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 64 64 SW 7 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 64 64 SW 7 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 62 62 S 7 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 62 62 S 7 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 61 61 S 7 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 61 61 S 8 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 60 60 S 8 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 59 59 S 9 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 62 62 S 9 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 70 71 S 10 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 74 76 S 12 9106 6200 0 Blue 2
11 AM Mon 77 80 S 12 12721 9637 3437 White 6
12 Noon Mon 78 81 S 13 12933 12933 6733 White 7
1 PM Mon 80 83 S 14 13357 13357 7157 White 9
2 PM Mon 81 83 S 14 13357 13357 7157 White 9
3 PM Mon 81 82 S 15 13145 13145 6945 White 8
4 PM Mon 82 83 S 15 13357 13357 7157 White 9
5 PM Mon 82 82 SW 15 13145 13145 6945 White 8
6 PM Mon 80 80 SW 15 12721 9637 3437 White 6
7 PM Mon 75 75 SW 15 7864 6200 0 Blue 1
8 PM Mon 70 70 SW 14 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 67 67 SW 14 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 66 66 SW 13 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 65 65 S 12 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 63 63 S 12 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 62 62 S 12 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 61 61 S 12 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 61 61 S 12 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 60 60 S 12 4970 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 60 60 S 13 4970 6200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com