Detailed Predictions for: Box Canyon
Launch Altitude (f): 6200
LZ Altitude (f): 4450
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

21 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sat 66 66 S 14 5033 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 66 66 SW 8 5033 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 71 71 SW 8 5033 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 75 77 E 10 6364 6200 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sat 78 81 E 9 7890 6563 363 Blue 7
11 AM Sat 82 86 E 7 11519 8168 1968 Blue 12
12 Noon Sat 83 88 W 6 13689 10881 4681 White 14
1 PM Sat 85 90 NW 9 14110 14110 7910 White 16
2 PM Sat 84 88 NW 9 13689 10881 4681 White 14
3 PM Sat 83 86 W 9 11519 8168 1968 Blue 12
4 PM Sat 86 88 W 10 13689 10881 4681 White 14
5 PM Sat 86 87 W 10 13478 9986 3786 White 13
6 PM Sat 83 83 W 13 8181 7733 1533 Blue 9
7 PM Sat 80 80 W 12 7744 6356 156 Blue 6
8 PM Sat 78 78 NW 12 6571 6200 0 Blue 4
9 PM Sat 75 75 NW 12 5947 6200 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sat 75 75 W 10 5947 6200 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sat 73 73 W 9 5033 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 73 73 SW 8 5033 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 72 72 W 7 5033 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 71 71 W 6 5033 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 71 71 W 5 5033 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 70 70 W 5 5033 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 70 70 N 5 5033 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 70 70 NE 5 5033 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 69 69 E 5 5033 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 75 76 N 5 6156 6200 0 Blue 2
9 AM Sun 79 81 N 5 7890 6563 363 Blue 7
10 AM Sun 83 87 N 5 13478 9986 3786 White 13
11 AM Sun 88 92 N 6 14530 14530 8330 White 18
12 Noon Sun 89 94 N 8 14948 14948 8748 White 20
1 PM Sun 91 96 N 9 15365 15365 9165 White 22
2 PM Sun 90 94 NW 10 14948 14948 8748 White 20
3 PM Sun 89 92 NW 12 14530 14530 8330 White 18
4 PM Sun 93 95 W 15 15158 15158 8958 White 21
5 PM Sun 93 94 NW 12 14948 14948 8748 White 20
6 PM Sun 88 88 NW 13 13689 10881 4681 White 14
7 PM Sun 85 85 NW 13 10979 8023 1823 Blue 11
8 PM Sun 82 82 NW 13 8035 6768 568 Blue 8
9 PM Sun 78 78 NW 10 6571 6200 0 Blue 4
10 PM Sun 78 78 W 8 6571 6200 0 Blue 4
11 PM Sun 75 75 W 7 5947 6200 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Mon 76 76 W 6 6156 6200 0 Blue 2
1 AM Mon 74 74 W 6 5738 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 73 73 W 6 5033 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 73 73 W 5 5033 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 72 72 W 5 5033 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 72 72 W 5 5033 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 71 71 W 5 5033 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 71 71 W 5 5033 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 77 78 W 5 6571 6200 0 Blue 4
9 AM Mon 82 85 NW 5 10979 8023 1823 Blue 11
10 AM Mon 87 92 NW 6 14530 14530 8330 White 18
11 AM Mon 92 98 NW 7 15772 15772 9572 White 24
12 Noon Mon 94 101 N 8 16380 16380 10180 White 27
1 PM Mon 96 103 N 9 16784 16784 10584 White 29
2 PM Mon 95 101 N 9 16380 16380 10180 White 27
3 PM Mon 93 97 NW 8 15570 15570 9370 White 23
4 PM Mon 98 101 NW 9 16380 16380 10180 White 27
5 PM Mon 98 99 NW 10 15975 15975 9775 White 25
6 PM Mon 93 93 NW 12 14740 14740 8540 White 19
7 PM Mon 89 89 NW 12 13900 11414 5214 White 15
8 PM Mon 86 86 NW 12 11519 8168 1968 Blue 12
9 PM Mon 82 82 N 12 8035 6768 568 Blue 8
10 PM Mon 80 80 N 12 7744 6356 156 Blue 6
11 PM Mon 78 78 N 10 6571 6200 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Tue 78 78 NE 9 6571 6200 0 Blue 4
1 AM Tue 77 77 NE 8 6364 6200 0 Blue 3
2 AM Tue 75 75 E 8 5947 6200 0 Blue 1
3 AM Tue 75 75 E 7 5947 6200 0 Blue 1
4 AM Tue 74 74 E 7 5738 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 74 74 E 7 5738 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 73 73 E 7 5033 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 73 73 E 7 5033 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 79 80 E 8 7744 6356 156 Blue 6
9 AM Tue 84 87 E 8 13478 9986 3786 White 13
10 AM Tue 89 94 E 8 14948 14948 8748 White 20
11 AM Tue 94 100 E 9 16179 16179 9979 White 26
12 Noon Tue 95 101 E 9 16380 16380 10180 White 27
1 PM Tue 98 104 NE 9 16985 16985 10785 White 30
2 PM Tue 97 102 N 9 16583 16583 10383 White 28
3 PM Tue 95 99 N 9 15975 15975 9775 White 25
4 PM Tue 100 102 NW 9 16583 16583 10383 White 28
5 PM Tue 100 101 W 9 16380 16380 10180 White 27
6 PM Tue 94 94 W 9 14948 14948 8748 White 20
7 PM Tue 90 90 W 9 14110 14110 7910 White 16
8 PM Tue 87 87 W 8 13478 9986 3786 White 13
9 PM Tue 82 82 SW 8 8035 6768 568 Blue 8
10 PM Tue 81 81 S 7 7890 6563 363 Blue 7
11 PM Tue 78 78 S 7 6571 6200 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Wed 78 78 S 7 6571 6200 0 Blue 4
1 AM Wed 77 77 SE 6 6364 6200 0 Blue 3
2 AM Wed 75 75 SE 6 5947 6200 0 Blue 1
3 AM Wed 75 75 E 6 5947 6200 0 Blue 1
4 AM Wed 74 74 E 6 5738 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 74 74 E 6 5738 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 73 73 E 6 5033 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 72 72 E 6 5033 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 78 79 E 6 6778 6200 0 Blue 5
9 AM Wed 83 85 NE 6 10979 8023 1823 Blue 11
10 AM Wed 87 90 N 6 14110 14110 7910 White 16
11 AM Wed 92 96 N 6 15365 15365 9165 White 22
12 Noon Wed 93 98 N 7 15772 15772 9572 White 24
1 PM Wed 96 101 N 8 16380 16380 10180 White 27
2 PM Wed 94 98 N 9 15772 15772 9572 White 24
3 PM Wed 93 96 NW 12 15365 15365 9165 White 22
4 PM Wed 98 99 NW 13 15975 15975 9775 White 25
5 PM Wed 97 97 NW 14 15570 15570 9370 White 23
6 PM Wed 92 92 NW 15 14530 14530 8330 White 18
7 PM Wed 88 88 NW 15 13689 10881 4681 White 14
8 PM Wed 85 85 N 14 10979 8023 1823 Blue 11
9 PM Wed 80 80 N 13 7744 6356 156 Blue 6
10 PM Wed 79 79 NE 12 6778 6200 0 Blue 5
11 PM Wed 76 76 NE 10 6156 6200 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Thu 77 77 E 9 6364 6200 0 Blue 3
1 AM Thu 75 75 E 8 5947 6200 0 Blue 1
2 AM Thu 73 73 E 7 5033 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 73 73 SE 6 5033 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 72 72 SE 6 5033 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 72 72 SE 6 5033 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 71 71 SE 6 5033 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 71 71 E 6 5033 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 76 77 E 7 6364 6200 0 Blue 3
9 AM Thu 80 82 NE 7 8035 6768 568 Blue 8
10 AM Thu 84 87 N 8 13478 9986 3786 White 13
11 AM Thu 88 92 NW 8 14530 14530 8330 White 18
12 Noon Thu 88 93 NW 9 14740 14740 8540 White 19
1 PM Thu 91 96 NW 10 15365 15365 9165 White 22
2 PM Thu 90 94 NW 12 14948 14948 8748 White 20
3 PM Thu 88 91 NW 12 14320 14320 8120 White 17
4 PM Thu 92 94 NW 13 14948 14948 8748 White 20
5 PM Thu 92 93 NW 14 14740 14740 8540 White 19
6 PM Thu 88 88 NW 14 13689 10881 4681 White 14
7 PM Thu 84 84 NW 14 10249 7878 1678 Blue 10
8 PM Thu 82 82 N 13 8035 6768 568 Blue 8
9 PM Thu 78 78 N 12 6571 6200 0 Blue 4
10 PM Thu 77 77 N 10 6364 6200 0 Blue 3
11 PM Thu 75 75 NE 9 5947 6200 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Fri 75 75 NE 8 5947 6200 0 Blue 1
1 AM Fri 74 74 E 7 5738 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 72 72 E 7 5033 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 72 72 SE 6 5033 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 71 71 SE 6 5033 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 71 71 SE 6 5033 6200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com