Detailed Predictions for: Box Canyon
Launch Altitude (f): 6200
LZ Altitude (f): 4450
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

26 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 48 48 SE 7 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 45 45 SE 7 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 45 45 SE 7 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 60 61 S 7 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 67 69 S 7 8644 6200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 73 76 S 8 12621 11919 5719 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 75 78 S 8 15170 12407 6207 Blue 9
1 PM Tue 78 81 S 9 16078 15069 8869 Blue 12
2 PM Tue 79 82 S 9 16275 15372 9172 Blue 13
3 PM Tue 80 82 SW 10 16275 15372 9172 Blue 13
4 PM Tue 80 81 SW 12 16078 15069 8869 Blue 12
5 PM Tue 79 79 W 12 15476 12579 6379 Blue 10
6 PM Tue 77 77 W 12 12740 12041 5841 Blue 8
7 PM Tue 73 73 W 12 11946 9571 3371 Blue 4
8 PM Tue 67 67 W 10 6611 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 64 64 W 9 5111 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 63 63 W 8 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 62 62 W 7 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 59 59 W 6 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 57 57 W 6 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 55 55 SW 5 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 54 54 SW 5 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 53 53 S 5 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 53 53 S 6 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 52 52 S 6 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 50 50 S 6 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 50 50 S 7 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 62 63 S 8 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 68 69 S 8 8644 6200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 72 74 SW 9 12083 10316 4116 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 74 76 SW 10 12621 11919 5719 Blue 7
1 PM Wed 76 78 SW 12 15170 12407 6207 Blue 9
2 PM Wed 77 79 SW 13 15476 12579 6379 Blue 10
3 PM Wed 78 79 SW 14 15476 12579 6379 Blue 10
4 PM Wed 78 79 W 15 15476 12579 6379 Blue 10
5 PM Wed 77 77 W 15 12740 12041 5841 Blue 8
6 PM Wed 75 75 W 15 12448 11197 4997 Blue 6
7 PM Wed 70 70 W 15 9680 6590 390 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 64 64 SW 14 5111 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 62 62 SW 13 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 61 61 SW 12 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 59 59 SW 10 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 57 57 SW 9 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 54 54 SW 8 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 53 53 SW 8 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 51 51 SW 7 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 50 50 SW 7 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 50 50 S 7 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 50 50 S 7 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 48 48 SW 7 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 48 49 SW 8 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 60 62 SW 8 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 66 70 SW 9 9680 6590 390 Blue 1
11 AM Thu 71 76 W 10 12621 11919 5719 Blue 7
12 Noon Thu 72 78 W 12 15170 12407 6207 Blue 9
1 PM Thu 74 80 W 13 15778 12716 6516 Blue 11
2 PM Thu 75 80 W 14 15778 12716 6516 Blue 11
3 PM Thu 76 79 W 15 15476 12579 6379 Blue 10
4 PM Thu 76 78 W 16 15170 12407 6207 Blue 9
5 PM Thu 76 76 W 17 12621 11919 5719 Blue 7
6 PM Thu 73 73 W 17 11946 9571 3371 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 68 68 W 16 7088 6200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 62 62 W 15 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 59 59 W 14 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 58 58 W 13 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 56 56 W 12 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 53 53 W 9 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 51 51 W 9 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 49 49 W 8 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 47 47 W 8 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 46 46 SW 8 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 46 46 SW 8 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 46 46 SW 8 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 43 43 W 8 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 44 45 W 8 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 56 58 W 8 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 62 66 W 9 6123 6200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 67 72 NW 9 11363 8321 2121 Blue 3
12 Noon Fri 68 74 NW 10 12083 10316 4116 Blue 5
1 PM Fri 71 77 NW 12 12740 12041 5841 Blue 8
2 PM Fri 72 77 NW 13 12740 12041 5841 Blue 8
3 PM Fri 72 75 NW 14 12448 11197 4997 Blue 6
4 PM Fri 72 74 NW 15 12083 10316 4116 Blue 5
5 PM Fri 72 72 NW 16 11363 8321 2121 Blue 3
6 PM Fri 70 70 NW 16 9680 6590 390 Blue 1
7 PM Fri 65 65 W 15 5624 6200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 59 59 W 15 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 57 57 SW 13 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 56 56 SW 12 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 54 54 S 10 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 52 52 S 9 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 50 50 S 9 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 48 48 S 9 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 46 46 S 9 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 45 45 S 9 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 46 46 S 9 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 45 45 S 9 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 43 43 SE 9 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 43 43 SE 8 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 55 56 E 8 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 61 63 E 8 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 66 69 NE 8 8644 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 68 72 NE 8 11363 8321 2121 Blue 3
1 PM Sat 70 74 NE 9 12083 10316 4116 Blue 5
2 PM Sat 71 74 N 10 12083 10316 4116 Blue 5
3 PM Sat 72 74 N 12 12083 10316 4116 Blue 5
4 PM Sat 72 73 N 13 11946 9571 3371 Blue 4
5 PM Sat 71 71 N 13 10471 7061 861 Blue 2
6 PM Sat 69 69 N 14 8644 6200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 64 64 N 14 5111 6200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 58 58 NE 13 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 56 56 NE 13 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 55 55 E 12 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 53 53 E 10 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 50 50 E 10 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 48 48 E 10 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 47 47 E 10 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 45 45 E 10 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 44 44 E 12 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 44 44 E 12 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 44 44 E 12 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 41 41 E 12 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 42 43 E 12 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 53 55 NE 12 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 59 62 NE 12 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 64 69 NE 12 8644 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 66 71 NE 12 10471 7061 861 Blue 2
1 PM Sun 68 73 NE 13 11946 9571 3371 Blue 4
2 PM Sun 68 73 N 14 11946 9571 3371 Blue 4
3 PM Sun 69 72 N 15 11363 8321 2121 Blue 3
4 PM Sun 70 72 N 16 11363 8321 2121 Blue 3
5 PM Sun 69 69 N 17 8644 6200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 67 67 N 17 6611 6200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 62 62 N 17 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 56 56 N 16 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 54 54 NW 15 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 53 53 NW 14 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 51 51 NW 13 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 49 49 NW 12 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 47 47 NW 10 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 45 45 N 10 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 44 44 N 9 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 42 42 NE 9 4961 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 43 43 E 8 4961 6200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com