Detailed Predictions for: Box Canyon
Launch Altitude (f): 6200
LZ Altitude (f): 4450
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

26 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sun 49 49 S 16 4793 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 50 51 S 17 4793 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 59 61 S 20 6005 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 61 65 S 22 8365 7380 1180 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 64 71 S 24 9873 9046 2846 Blue 9
11 AM Sun 66 74 S 26 13038 9847 3647 Blue 12
12 Noon Sun 68 77 S 28 15240 12942 6742 White 15
1 PM Sun 70 79 SW 26 15650 14602 8402 White 17
2 PM Sun 71 79 SW 26 15650 14602 8402 White 17
3 PM Sun 72 78 SW 25 15445 13309 7109 White 16
4 PM Sun 73 76 SW 24 15035 12571 6371 White 14
5 PM Sun 73 74 SW 24 13038 9847 3647 Blue 12
6 PM Sun 72 72 SW 22 12282 9428 3228 Blue 10
7 PM Sun 70 70 SW 21 9695 8865 2665 Blue 8
8 PM Sun 65 65 SW 20 8365 7380 1180 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 60 60 SW 15 4793 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 58 58 SW 13 4793 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 55 55 SW 12 4793 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 54 54 S 12 4793 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 51 51 S 12 4793 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 50 50 S 13 4793 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 48 48 S 13 4793 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 49 49 S 13 4793 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 47 47 S 13 4793 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 46 46 S 13 4793 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 46 47 SW 14 4793 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 56 58 SW 14 4793 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 58 62 SW 15 7424 6200 0 Blue 1
10 AM Mon 61 67 SW 16 8890 8272 2072 Blue 5
11 AM Mon 63 71 SW 18 9873 9046 2846 Blue 9
12 Noon Mon 64 73 SW 20 12663 9669 3469 Blue 11
1 PM Mon 66 75 SW 20 13446 12195 5995 Blue 13
2 PM Mon 68 76 W 21 15035 12571 6371 White 14
3 PM Mon 69 75 W 21 13446 12195 5995 Blue 13
4 PM Mon 69 72 W 20 12282 9428 3228 Blue 10
5 PM Mon 70 71 W 20 9873 9046 2846 Blue 9
6 PM Mon 69 69 W 20 9483 8556 2356 Blue 7
7 PM Mon 66 66 W 17 8589 7994 1794 Blue 4
8 PM Mon 61 61 W 15 6005 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 56 56 W 13 4793 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 54 54 W 10 4793 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 51 51 W 9 4793 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 50 50 W 8 4793 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 47 47 W 7 4793 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 46 46 NW 7 4793 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 44 44 NW 6 4793 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 45 45 W 6 4793 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 43 43 S 6 4793 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 42 42 SE 7 4793 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 42 43 S 6 4793 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 55 57 SW 6 4793 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 58 61 SW 6 6005 6200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 61 65 SW 6 8365 7380 1180 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 64 70 W 7 9695 8865 2665 Blue 8
12 Noon Tue 66 73 W 7 12663 9669 3469 Blue 11
1 PM Tue 68 74 W 8 13038 9847 3647 Blue 12
2 PM Tue 71 76 W 9 15035 12571 6371 White 14
3 PM Tue 72 75 W 10 13446 12195 5995 Blue 13
4 PM Tue 73 75 W 12 13446 12195 5995 Blue 13
5 PM Tue 73 74 W 13 13038 9847 3647 Blue 12
6 PM Tue 72 72 W 13 12282 9428 3228 Blue 10
7 PM Tue 69 69 W 12 9483 8556 2356 Blue 7
8 PM Tue 65 65 W 12 8365 7380 1180 Blue 3
9 PM Tue 60 60 W 10 4793 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 58 58 NW 10 4793 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 55 55 NW 9 4793 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 53 53 NW 8 4793 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 51 51 NW 8 4793 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 50 50 NW 8 4793 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 48 48 NW 7 4793 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 48 48 W 7 4793 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 47 47 S 7 4793 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 46 46 SE 7 4793 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 46 47 SE 7 4793 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 59 61 S 7 6005 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 62 66 S 7 8589 7994 1794 Blue 4
10 AM Wed 66 73 SW 7 12663 9669 3469 Blue 11
11 AM Wed 69 77 SW 7 15240 12942 6742 White 15
12 Noon Wed 71 80 W 7 15854 15413 9213 White 18
1 PM Wed 74 83 W 7 16464 16464 10264 White 21
2 PM Wed 76 84 W 7 16663 16663 10463 White 22
3 PM Wed 78 84 W 8 16663 16663 10463 White 22
4 PM Wed 78 81 W 8 16057 16057 9857 White 19
5 PM Wed 79 80 W 9 15854 15413 9213 White 18
6 PM Wed 78 78 W 9 15445 13309 7109 White 16
7 PM Wed 75 75 W 9 13446 12195 5995 Blue 13
8 PM Wed 70 70 W 9 9695 8865 2665 Blue 8
9 PM Wed 65 65 W 9 8365 7380 1180 Blue 3
10 PM Wed 62 62 W 9 7424 6200 0 Blue 1
11 PM Wed 59 59 W 8 4793 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 58 58 W 8 4793 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 55 55 W 8 4793 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 54 54 SW 7 4793 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 52 52 SW 7 4793 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 52 52 S 7 4793 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 51 51 S 6 4793 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 50 50 S 6 4793 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 50 51 S 7 4793 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 64 66 S 7 8589 7994 1794 Blue 4
9 AM Thu 67 72 S 8 12282 9428 3228 Blue 10
10 AM Thu 71 78 S 8 15445 13309 7109 White 16
11 AM Thu 74 82 S 9 16260 16260 10060 White 20
12 Noon Thu 76 85 S 9 16862 16862 10662 White 23
1 PM Thu 79 88 S 10 17459 17459 11259 White 26
2 PM Thu 81 89 S 10 17656 17656 11456 White 27
3 PM Thu 83 89 SW 12 17656 17656 11456 White 27
4 PM Thu 83 86 SW 12 17062 17062 10862 White 24
5 PM Thu 84 85 SW 12 16862 16862 10662 White 23
6 PM Thu 82 82 SW 12 16260 16260 10060 White 20
7 PM Thu 79 79 SW 12 15650 14602 8402 White 17
8 PM Thu 74 74 SW 12 13038 9847 3647 Blue 12
9 PM Thu 68 68 SW 10 9081 8357 2157 Blue 6
10 PM Thu 65 65 SW 10 8365 7380 1180 Blue 3
11 PM Thu 62 62 W 9 7424 6200 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Fri 60 60 W 9 4793 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 57 57 SW 8 4793 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 56 56 SW 8 4793 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 53 53 SW 8 4793 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 54 54 S 7 4793 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 52 52 S 7 4793 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 51 51 S 7 4793 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 52 53 S 7 4793 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 65 67 S 8 8890 8272 2072 Blue 5
9 AM Fri 68 72 S 8 12282 9428 3228 Blue 10
10 AM Fri 72 79 S 9 15650 14602 8402 White 17
11 AM Fri 74 82 S 9 16260 16260 10060 White 20
12 Noon Fri 77 86 SW 10 17062 17062 10862 White 24
1 PM Fri 79 88 SW 10 17459 17459 11259 White 26
2 PM Fri 82 90 SW 12 17854 17854 11654 White 28
3 PM Fri 83 89 SW 12 17656 17656 11456 White 27
4 PM Fri 84 87 SW 13 17260 17260 11060 White 25
5 PM Fri 84 85 SW 13 16862 16862 10662 White 23
6 PM Fri 83 83 SW 14 16464 16464 10264 White 21
7 PM Fri 80 80 SW 13 15854 15413 9213 White 18
8 PM Fri 74 74 SW 12 13038 9847 3647 Blue 12
9 PM Fri 69 69 SW 12 9483 8556 2356 Blue 7
10 PM Fri 66 66 SW 10 8589 7994 1794 Blue 4
11 PM Fri 63 63 SW 9 8049 6200 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sat 61 61 SW 9 6005 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 58 58 SW 8 4793 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 57 57 SW 8 4793 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 54 54 SW 8 4793 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 55 55 S 8 4793 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 54 54 S 8 4793 6200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com