Detailed Predictions for: Box Canyon
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 31.8125, -110.7742, 6200
LZ Altitude (f): 4450
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Fri 43 43 SE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 42 42 SE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 41 41 SE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 38 38 NNW 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 39 39 ESE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 39 39 ESE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 36 36 ENE 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 41 41 ESE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 43 43 ESE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 43 44 ESE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 49 51 ESE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 53 57 E 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 54 58 N 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 59 63 SSE 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 61 64 SW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 61 64 NW 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 62 63 NW 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 62 62 NW 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 61 61 WNW 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 59 59 WNW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 56 56 WNW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 55 55 W 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 51 51 W 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 49 49 W 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 44 44 W 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 45 45 WSW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 44 44 SW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 42 42 S 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 42 42 SSW 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 41 41 SSW 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 40 40 S 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 43 43 S 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 45 45 S 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 47 48 SSE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 52 55 SSW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 56 60 SW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 60 64 W 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 62 67 W 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 64 68 W 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 65 65 W 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 65 66 WNW 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 64 64 WNW 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 65 65 W 13 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 62 62 WNW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 59 59 W 7 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 60 60 WSW 8 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 54 54 WSW 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 52 52 WSW 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 48 48 SW 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 48 48 SW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 47 47 SW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 45 45 WSW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 45 45 SW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 44 44 SW 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 42 42 WSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 45 45 SW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 46 46 SW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 48 49 WSW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 52 55 SW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 55 59 WSW 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 56 61 WNW 18 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 59 64 W 15 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 60 64 W 18 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 58 61 W 29 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 59 60 W 23 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 57 57 W 25 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 49 49 WNW 25 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 54 54 W 22 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 53 53 WSW 17 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 45 45 NW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 48 48 WSW 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 44 44 SW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com