Detailed Predictions for: Box Canyon
Launch Altitude (f): 6200
LZ Altitude (f): 4450
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 37 37 SE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 37 37 SE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 37 37 SE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 38 38 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 42 42 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 52 53 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 57 59 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 60 63 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 61 64 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 63 65 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 62 63 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 58 58 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 55 55 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 51 51 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 47 47 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 46 46 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 45 45 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 42 42 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 42 42 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 41 41 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 40 40 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 40 40 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 39 39 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 40 40 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 40 40 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 40 40 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 40 40 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 40 40 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 43 43 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 49 50 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 52 53 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 55 57 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 55 57 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 56 58 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 55 56 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 51 51 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 48 48 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 44 44 NW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 40 40 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 38 38 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 38 38 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 35 35 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 34 34 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 34 34 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 33 33 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 32 32 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 32 32 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 32 32 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 33 33 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 33 33 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 32 32 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 33 33 E 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 38 38 E 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 48 49 E 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 52 54 E 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 56 59 E 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 57 60 E 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 58 61 E 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 58 59 E 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 54 54 E 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 51 51 E 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 46 46 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 43 43 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 42 42 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 41 41 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 39 39 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 38 38 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 37 37 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 36 36 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 36 36 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 36 36 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 36 36 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 36 36 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 37 37 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 36 36 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 37 37 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 42 42 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 53 54 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 59 61 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 62 64 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 64 66 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 65 66 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 64 65 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 60 60 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 56 56 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 51 51 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 47 47 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 45 45 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 44 44 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 42 42 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 40 40 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 40 40 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 39 39 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 38 38 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 38 38 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 38 38 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 39 39 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 39 39 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 38 38 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 39 39 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 44 44 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 52 53 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 57 59 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 60 62 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 61 63 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 63 65 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 61 62 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 56 56 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 52 52 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 46 46 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 41 41 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 38 38 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 38 38 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 34 34 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 33 33 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 32 32 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 31 31 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 30 30 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 30 30 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 30 30 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 30 30 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 31 31 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 30 30 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 31 31 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 35 35 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 43 44 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 47 49 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 50 53 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 51 54 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 52 54 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 51 52 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 47 47 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 44 44 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 40 40 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 36 36 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 35 35 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 34 34 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 32 32 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 31 31 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 31 31 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 29 29 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 29 29 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 29 29 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 29 29 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com