Detailed Predictions for: Box Canyon
Launch Altitude (f): 6200
LZ Altitude (f): 4450
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 28 28 E 31 5200 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 28 28 E 31 5200 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 28 28 E 31 5200 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 34 34 E 31 5200 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 40 41 E 31 7433 7104 904 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 44 46 E 32 8096 7520 1320 Blue 8
11 AM Tue 46 49 E 32 8668 8063 1863 Blue 11
12 Noon Tue 48 52 E 31 8789 8663 2463 Blue 14
1 PM Tue 49 52 E 30 8789 8663 2463 Blue 14
2 PM Tue 49 52 E 29 8789 8663 2463 Blue 14
3 PM Tue 49 50 E 29 8708 8410 2210 Blue 12
4 PM Tue 47 47 E 29 8448 7612 1412 Blue 9
5 PM Tue 44 44 E 29 7623 7429 1229 Blue 6
6 PM Tue 39 39 E 28 7341 6200 0 Blue 2
7 PM Tue 37 37 E 28 6646 6200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 36 36 E 26 5715 6200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 34 34 E 28 5200 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 33 33 E 28 5200 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 32 32 E 29 5200 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 34 34 E 28 5200 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 33 33 E 26 5200 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 32 32 E 26 5200 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 31 31 E 26 5200 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 31 31 E 26 5200 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 31 31 E 26 5200 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 31 31 E 26 5200 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 31 31 E 25 5200 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 38 38 E 25 7118 6200 0 Blue 1
9 AM Wed 46 47 E 25 8448 7612 1412 Blue 9
10 AM Wed 50 51 E 25 8749 8623 2423 Blue 13
11 AM Wed 53 55 E 24 8935 8784 2584 Blue 17
12 Noon Wed 55 57 E 23 9107 8865 2665 Blue 19
1 PM Wed 57 59 E 22 9475 9010 2810 Blue 21
2 PM Wed 57 58 E 21 9270 8924 2724 Blue 20
3 PM Wed 56 57 E 20 9107 8865 2665 Blue 19
4 PM Wed 54 54 E 18 8870 8744 2544 Blue 16
5 PM Wed 50 50 E 17 8708 8410 2210 Blue 12
6 PM Wed 44 44 E 17 7623 7429 1229 Blue 6
7 PM Wed 41 41 E 16 7433 7104 904 Blue 4
8 PM Wed 40 40 E 16 7387 6604 404 Blue 3
9 PM Wed 38 38 E 16 7118 6200 0 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 37 37 E 16 6646 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 35 35 E 16 5200 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 38 38 E 16 7118 6200 0 Blue 1
1 AM Thu 36 36 E 15 5715 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 36 36 E 15 5715 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 35 35 E 15 5200 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 34 34 E 15 5200 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 34 34 E 15 5200 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 34 34 E 15 5200 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 34 34 E 15 5200 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 42 42 E 15 7478 7325 1125 Blue 5
9 AM Thu 50 51 E 15 8749 8623 2423 Blue 13
10 AM Thu 56 58 E 15 9270 8924 2724 Blue 20
11 AM Thu 58 61 E 14 9885 9242 3042 Blue 23
12 Noon Thu 61 65 E 14 11078 10055 3855 Blue 27
1 PM Thu 63 66 E 13 11775 10257 4057 Blue 28
2 PM Thu 63 66 E 12 11775 10257 4057 Blue 28
3 PM Thu 62 63 E 10 10292 9650 3450 Blue 25
4 PM Thu 60 60 E 10 9680 9095 2895 Blue 22
5 PM Thu 55 55 E 9 8935 8784 2584 Blue 17
6 PM Thu 48 48 E 9 8628 7752 1552 Blue 10
7 PM Thu 45 45 E 8 7764 7474 1274 Blue 7
8 PM Thu 43 43 E 8 7523 7384 1184 Blue 6
9 PM Thu 41 41 E 8 7433 7104 904 Blue 4
10 PM Thu 40 40 E 8 7387 6604 404 Blue 3
11 PM Thu 38 38 E 8 7118 6200 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Fri 41 41 E 8 7433 7104 904 Blue 4
1 AM Fri 39 39 E 8 7341 6200 0 Blue 2
2 AM Fri 39 39 E 8 7341 6200 0 Blue 2
3 AM Fri 37 37 SE 8 6646 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 37 37 SE 8 6646 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 37 37 SE 8 6646 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 37 37 SE 8 6646 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 37 37 SE 8 6646 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 44 44 SE 8 7623 7429 1229 Blue 6
9 AM Fri 53 54 SE 8 8870 8744 2544 Blue 16
10 AM Fri 58 60 SE 8 9680 9095 2895 Blue 22
11 AM Fri 61 64 SE 8 10519 9853 3653 Blue 26
12 Noon Fri 63 66 S 8 11775 10257 4057 Blue 28
1 PM Fri 65 68 S 8 13062 10937 4737 Blue 30
2 PM Fri 65 67 SW 8 12435 10478 4278 Blue 29
3 PM Fri 64 65 SW 8 11078 10055 3855 Blue 27
4 PM Fri 62 62 W 8 10089 9446 3246 Blue 24
5 PM Fri 57 57 W 8 9107 8865 2665 Blue 19
6 PM Fri 51 51 W 8 8749 8623 2423 Blue 13
7 PM Fri 47 47 W 7 8448 7612 1412 Blue 9
8 PM Fri 46 46 W 7 8096 7520 1320 Blue 8
9 PM Fri 44 44 SW 6 7623 7429 1229 Blue 6
10 PM Fri 42 42 SW 6 7478 7325 1125 Blue 5
11 PM Fri 41 41 SW 5 7433 7104 904 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sat 44 44 SW 5 7623 7429 1229 Blue 6
1 AM Sat 42 42 S 6 7478 7325 1125 Blue 5
2 AM Sat 42 42 S 6 7478 7325 1125 Blue 5
3 AM Sat 40 40 S 6 7387 6604 404 Blue 3
4 AM Sat 40 40 SE 7 7387 6604 404 Blue 3
5 AM Sat 40 40 SE 7 7387 6604 404 Blue 3
6 AM Sat 40 40 SE 7 7387 6604 404 Blue 3
7 AM Sat 39 39 SE 8 7341 6200 0 Blue 2
8 AM Sat 46 46 S 8 8096 7520 1320 Blue 8
9 AM Sat 54 55 S 8 8935 8784 2584 Blue 17
10 AM Sat 58 59 S 8 9475 9010 2810 Blue 21
11 AM Sat 61 63 S 8 10292 9650 3450 Blue 25
12 Noon Sat 63 66 S 8 11775 10257 4057 Blue 28
1 PM Sat 65 68 SW 9 13062 10937 4737 Blue 30
2 PM Sat 65 67 SW 9 12435 10478 4278 Blue 29
3 PM Sat 64 65 W 9 11078 10055 3855 Blue 27
4 PM Sat 62 62 W 9 10089 9446 3246 Blue 24
5 PM Sat 57 57 W 9 9107 8865 2665 Blue 19
6 PM Sat 51 51 W 8 8749 8623 2423 Blue 13
7 PM Sat 47 47 W 8 8448 7612 1412 Blue 9
8 PM Sat 46 46 SW 7 8096 7520 1320 Blue 8
9 PM Sat 44 44 SW 7 7623 7429 1229 Blue 6
10 PM Sat 42 42 SW 6 7478 7325 1125 Blue 5
11 PM Sat 41 41 SW 6 7433 7104 904 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sun 44 44 S 6 7623 7429 1229 Blue 6
1 AM Sun 42 42 S 6 7478 7325 1125 Blue 5
2 AM Sun 42 42 SE 6 7478 7325 1125 Blue 5
3 AM Sun 40 40 SE 7 7387 6604 404 Blue 3
4 AM Sun 40 40 E 7 7387 6604 404 Blue 3
5 AM Sun 40 40 E 8 7387 6604 404 Blue 3
6 AM Sun 40 40 E 8 7387 6604 404 Blue 3
7 AM Sun 39 39 E 8 7341 6200 0 Blue 2
8 AM Sun 47 47 E 9 8448 7612 1412 Blue 9
9 AM Sun 54 54 E 9 8870 8744 2544 Blue 16
10 AM Sun 59 60 E 9 9680 9095 2895 Blue 22
11 AM Sun 62 63 E 10 10292 9650 3450 Blue 25
12 Noon Sun 64 66 E 10 11775 10257 4057 Blue 28
1 PM Sun 66 68 E 10 13062 10937 4737 Blue 30
2 PM Sun 66 67 E 9 12435 10478 4278 Blue 29
3 PM Sun 65 66 NE 9 11775 10257 4057 Blue 28
4 PM Sun 63 63 NE 9 10292 9650 3450 Blue 25
5 PM Sun 58 58 NE 9 9270 8924 2724 Blue 20
6 PM Sun 52 52 NE 9 8789 8663 2463 Blue 14
7 PM Sun 48 48 NE 9 8628 7752 1552 Blue 10
8 PM Sun 47 47 E 9 8448 7612 1412 Blue 9
9 PM Sun 45 45 E 9 7764 7474 1274 Blue 7
10 PM Sun 44 44 E 9 7623 7429 1229 Blue 6
11 PM Sun 42 42 E 9 7478 7325 1125 Blue 5
12 Midnight Mon 45 45 E 9 7764 7474 1274 Blue 7
1 AM Mon 43 43 E 9 7523 7384 1184 Blue 6
2 AM Mon 43 43 E 9 7523 7384 1184 Blue 6
3 AM Mon 41 41 E 9 7433 7104 904 Blue 4
4 AM Mon 41 41 E 9 7433 7104 904 Blue 4

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com