Detailed Predictions for: El Tiro Gliderport
Launch Altitude (f): 2100
LZ Altitude (f): 2100
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 75 75 SW 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 74 74 SW 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 73 73 S 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 80 82 S 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 84 87 SW 8 2962 2470 370 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 90 95 W 7 6151 5130 3030 Blue 11
12 Noon Tue 94 99 W 7 8710 6634 4534 Blue 15
1 PM Tue 97 102 W 8 11277 8596 6496 Blue 18
2 PM Tue 100 104 W 9 13189 9669 7569 White 20
3 PM Tue 101 104 NW 10 13189 9669 7569 White 20
4 PM Tue 102 103 NW 12 12984 9256 7156 White 19
5 PM Tue 102 102 NW 12 11277 8596 6496 Blue 18
6 PM Tue 100 100 NW 12 9350 7325 5225 Blue 16
7 PM Tue 98 98 W 12 8103 6112 4012 Blue 14
8 PM Tue 92 92 W 10 5208 3068 968 Blue 8
9 PM Tue 90 90 W 10 3124 2960 860 Blue 6
10 PM Tue 88 88 W 10 3016 2540 440 Blue 4
11 PM Tue 87 87 SW 10 2962 2470 370 Blue 3
12 Midnight Wed 84 84 SW 10 0 2100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 82 82 SW 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 80 80 S 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 78 78 S 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 77 77 S 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 76 76 S 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 75 75 S 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 74 74 S 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 73 73 S 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 77 77 S 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 79 79 S 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 82 82 SW 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 84 84 SW 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 86 86 W 8 2896 2470 370 Blue 2
2 PM Wed 87 87 W 9 2962 2470 370 Blue 3
3 PM Wed 88 88 NW 9 3016 2540 440 Blue 4
4 PM Wed 88 88 W 9 3016 2540 440 Blue 4
5 PM Wed 88 88 SW 9 3016 2540 440 Blue 4
6 PM Wed 87 87 SW 9 2962 2470 370 Blue 3
7 PM Wed 85 85 S 9 2546 2470 370 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 81 81 S 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 80 80 S 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 78 78 S 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 77 77 S 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 75 75 S 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 74 74 S 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 72 72 S 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 70 70 S 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 70 70 S 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 69 69 S 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 68 68 S 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 67 67 S 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 67 67 SE 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 72 73 SE 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 76 78 E 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 81 84 N 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 84 88 NW 6 3016 2540 440 Blue 4
1 PM Thu 86 90 NW 7 3124 2960 860 Blue 6
2 PM Thu 89 92 NW 7 5208 3068 968 Blue 8
3 PM Thu 90 92 NW 8 5208 3068 968 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 90 91 NW 8 3385 3014 914 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 90 90 W 8 3124 2960 860 Blue 6
6 PM Thu 89 89 W 8 3070 2887 787 Blue 5
7 PM Thu 87 87 W 7 2962 2470 370 Blue 3
8 PM Thu 83 83 W 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 81 81 SW 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 80 80 SW 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 78 78 S 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 76 76 S 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 74 74 S 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 72 72 S 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 71 71 S 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 70 70 S 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 69 69 S 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 69 69 S 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 68 68 SW 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 67 67 SW 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 73 74 W 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 76 79 W 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 82 86 W 6 2896 2470 370 Blue 2
12 Noon Fri 85 90 NW 6 3124 2960 860 Blue 6
1 PM Fri 87 92 NW 6 5208 3068 968 Blue 8
2 PM Fri 90 94 NW 6 5839 3372 1272 Blue 10
3 PM Fri 91 94 NW 7 5839 3372 1272 Blue 10
4 PM Fri 91 93 NW 7 5525 3122 1022 Blue 9
5 PM Fri 91 91 NW 7 3385 3014 914 Blue 7
6 PM Fri 90 90 NW 7 3124 2960 860 Blue 6
7 PM Fri 88 88 NW 7 3016 2540 440 Blue 4
8 PM Fri 84 84 NW 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 82 82 W 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 81 81 W 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 79 79 W 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 77 77 W 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 76 76 SW 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 74 74 SW 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 72 72 S 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 71 71 S 2 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 70 70 SE 2 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 70 70 SE 2 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 69 69 SE 2 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 68 68 E 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 75 77 E 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 79 82 NE 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 84 88 N 6 3016 2540 440 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 88 93 N 6 5525 3122 1022 Blue 9
1 PM Sat 91 96 N 6 6737 5491 3391 Blue 12
2 PM Sat 94 98 N 6 8103 6112 4012 Blue 14
3 PM Sat 95 98 N 6 8103 6112 4012 Blue 14
4 PM Sat 96 98 N 5 8103 6112 4012 Blue 14
5 PM Sat 96 96 N 5 6737 5491 3391 Blue 12
6 PM Sat 94 94 N 5 5839 3372 1272 Blue 10
7 PM Sat 92 92 N 5 5208 3068 968 Blue 8
8 PM Sat 87 87 N 5 2962 2470 370 Blue 3
9 PM Sat 85 85 N 5 2546 2470 370 Blue 1
10 PM Sat 83 83 N 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 82 82 N 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 79 79 NE 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 77 77 NE 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 75 75 NE 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 73 73 E 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 72 72 E 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 72 72 SE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 71 71 SE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 70 70 SE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 69 69 SE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 76 78 SE 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 80 83 SE 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 86 91 SE 7 3385 3014 914 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 90 96 SE 7 6737 5491 3391 Blue 12
1 PM Sun 93 99 SE 7 8710 6634 4534 Blue 15
2 PM Sun 95 100 S 7 9350 7325 5225 Blue 16
3 PM Sun 97 100 S 6 9350 7325 5225 Blue 16
4 PM Sun 98 100 SW 6 9350 7325 5225 Blue 16
5 PM Sun 97 97 SW 6 7438 5803 3703 Blue 13
6 PM Sun 96 96 W 6 6737 5491 3391 Blue 12
7 PM Sun 94 94 W 6 5839 3372 1272 Blue 10
8 PM Sun 88 88 SW 7 3016 2540 440 Blue 4
9 PM Sun 86 86 SW 8 2896 2470 370 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 84 84 SW 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 82 82 SW 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 80 80 SW 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 78 78 SW 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 75 75 SW 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 74 74 S 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 73 73 S 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 72 72 S 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com