Detailed Predictions for: El Tiro Gliderport
Launch Altitude (f): 2100
LZ Altitude (f): 2100
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

19 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 54 54 SE 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 50 50 SE 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 50 50 SE 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 55 55 S 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 61 61 SE 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 70 70 S 5 2753 2687 587 Blue 9
11 AM Tue 76 76 S 3 3700 3118 1018 Blue 15
12 Noon Tue 78 78 SE 3 3897 3597 1497 Blue 17
1 PM Tue 75 75 SE 8 3602 2824 724 Blue 14
2 PM Tue 73 73 SE 7 3130 2753 653 Blue 12
3 PM Tue 72 72 E 7 2825 2731 631 Blue 11
4 PM Tue 72 72 NE 8 2825 2731 631 Blue 11
5 PM Tue 70 70 W 8 2753 2687 587 Blue 9
6 PM Tue 66 66 NE 8 2666 2600 500 Blue 5
7 PM Tue 66 66 E 8 2666 2600 500 Blue 5
8 PM Tue 65 65 SE 9 2644 2561 461 Blue 4
9 PM Tue 64 64 SE 9 2622 2470 370 Blue 3
10 PM Tue 63 63 S 10 2600 2470 370 Blue 2
11 PM Tue 62 62 S 9 2562 2470 370 Blue 1
12 Midnight Wed 60 60 S 10 0 2100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 60 60 S 12 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 59 59 S 12 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 59 59 S 13 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 60 60 S 13 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 58 58 S 15 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 57 57 S 16 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 56 56 S 18 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 58 58 SE 18 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 61 61 S 20 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 63 63 S 22 2600 2470 370 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 64 64 S 25 2622 2470 370 Blue 3
12 Noon Wed 65 65 S 24 2644 2561 461 Blue 4
1 PM Wed 66 66 S 23 2666 2600 500 Blue 5
2 PM Wed 66 66 S 23 2666 2600 500 Blue 5
3 PM Wed 66 66 S 23 2666 2600 500 Blue 5
4 PM Wed 64 64 S 24 2622 2470 370 Blue 3
5 PM Wed 62 62 S 20 2562 2470 370 Blue 1
6 PM Wed 59 59 S 21 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 56 56 S 17 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 54 54 S 14 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 53 53 S 13 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 53 53 SW 12 0 2100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 52 52 SW 13 0 2100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 52 52 SW 13 0 2100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 50 50 SW 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 50 50 S 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 49 49 S 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 49 49 SW 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 48 48 S 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 48 48 SW 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 47 47 S 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 48 48 SW 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 49 49 S 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 52 52 S 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 54 54 S 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 56 56 S 10 0 2100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 58 58 S 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 58 58 S 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 58 58 SW 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 56 56 SW 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 55 55 SW 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 53 53 SW 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 52 52 SW 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 50 50 S 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 50 50 S 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 49 49 S 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 48 48 S 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 47 47 S 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 46 46 S 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 45 45 SE 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 45 45 SE 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 45 45 SE 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 44 44 SE 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 44 44 SE 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 43 43 SE 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 44 44 SE 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 48 48 E 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 52 53 E 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 56 58 E 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 59 60 E 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 60 60 NE 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 61 61 NE 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 61 61 N 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 60 60 N 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 58 58 N 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 56 56 N 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 52 52 N 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 50 50 NE 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 48 48 NE 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 48 48 E 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 47 47 E 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 46 46 E 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 44 44 SE 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 43 43 SE 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 42 42 SE 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 42 42 SE 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 42 42 SE 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 41 41 SE 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 42 42 SE 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 44 44 E 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 48 48 E 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 54 55 E 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 59 61 E 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 63 65 E 5 2644 2561 461 Blue 4
1 PM Sat 65 67 NE 5 2688 2622 522 Blue 6
2 PM Sat 66 68 NE 6 2709 2643 543 Blue 7
3 PM Sat 66 67 NE 6 2688 2622 522 Blue 6
4 PM Sat 64 64 N 6 2622 2470 370 Blue 3
5 PM Sat 62 62 N 6 2562 2470 370 Blue 1
6 PM Sat 59 59 N 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 55 55 N 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 52 52 NE 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 50 50 NE 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 49 49 E 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 48 48 E 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 46 46 E 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 45 45 SE 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 44 44 SE 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 43 43 SE 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 42 42 SE 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 42 42 SE 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 41 41 SE 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 42 42 SE 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 44 44 SE 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 49 49 SE 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 56 57 E 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 62 64 E 3 2622 2470 370 Blue 3
12 Noon Sun 66 68 E 3 2709 2643 543 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 68 69 E 5 2731 2665 565 Blue 8
2 PM Sun 69 70 NE 5 2753 2687 587 Blue 9
3 PM Sun 68 68 N 5 2709 2643 543 Blue 7
4 PM Sun 67 67 N 6 2688 2622 522 Blue 6
5 PM Sun 64 64 N 6 2622 2470 370 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 61 61 N 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 57 57 N 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 53 53 NE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 51 51 NE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 50 50 E 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 49 49 E 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 47 47 SE 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 46 46 SE 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 45 45 SE 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 44 44 SE 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 44 44 SE 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com