Detailed Predictions for: El Tiro Gliderport
Launch Altitude (f): 2100
LZ Altitude (f): 2100
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

17 SEP 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 69 69 SE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 68 68 SE 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 69 70 SE 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 74 76 SE 7 2783 2626 526 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 80 84 S 6 4102 3739 1639 Blue 12
11 AM Tue 84 89 SW 3 5518 4330 2230 Blue 17
12 Noon Tue 88 94 SW 2 8722 6119 4019 Blue 22
1 PM Tue 91 97 W 3 10559 8096 5996 White 25
2 PM Tue 93 98 W 5 10766 9996 7896 White 26
3 PM Tue 94 98 W 6 10766 9996 7896 White 26
4 PM Tue 94 96 W 6 10346 6745 4645 White 24
5 PM Tue 92 92 NW 6 6478 5477 3377 Blue 20
6 PM Tue 91 91 NW 6 6161 4968 2868 Blue 19
7 PM Tue 89 89 NW 5 5518 4330 2230 Blue 17
8 PM Tue 86 86 NW 3 4339 3976 1876 Blue 14
9 PM Tue 83 83 NW 2 3983 3621 1521 Blue 11
10 PM Tue 80 80 W 2 3627 2919 819 Blue 8
11 PM Tue 78 78 SW 3 3338 2730 630 Blue 6
12 Midnight Wed 77 77 S 5 2931 2678 578 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 76 76 S 5 2783 2626 526 Blue 4
2 AM Wed 76 76 S 5 2783 2626 526 Blue 4
3 AM Wed 75 75 S 5 2731 2470 370 Blue 3
4 AM Wed 73 73 S 5 2627 2470 370 Blue 1
5 AM Wed 72 72 S 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 71 71 S 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 70 70 S 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 71 72 SE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 76 78 SE 6 3338 2730 630 Blue 6
10 AM Wed 82 86 S 6 4339 3976 1876 Blue 14
11 AM Wed 87 92 S 5 6478 5477 3377 Blue 20
12 Noon Wed 90 96 S 5 10346 6745 4645 White 24
1 PM Wed 94 100 S 5 11179 11082 8982 White 28
2 PM Wed 95 100 SW 6 11179 11082 8982 White 28
3 PM Wed 97 101 SW 7 11384 11298 9198 White 29
4 PM Wed 96 98 SW 8 10766 9996 7896 White 26
5 PM Wed 95 95 W 8 10129 6434 4334 White 23
6 PM Wed 94 94 W 8 8722 6119 4019 Blue 22
7 PM Wed 91 91 W 8 6161 4968 2868 Blue 19
8 PM Wed 87 87 SW 7 4518 4094 1994 Blue 15
9 PM Wed 84 84 SW 7 4102 3739 1639 Blue 12
10 PM Wed 81 81 SW 7 3746 3320 1220 Blue 9
11 PM Wed 80 80 SW 6 3627 2919 819 Blue 8
12 Midnight Thu 78 78 S 6 3338 2730 630 Blue 6
1 AM Thu 77 77 S 6 2931 2678 578 Blue 5
2 AM Thu 76 76 S 6 2783 2626 526 Blue 4
3 AM Thu 75 75 SE 6 2731 2470 370 Blue 3
4 AM Thu 74 74 SE 6 2679 2470 370 Blue 2
5 AM Thu 72 72 SE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 72 72 SE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 71 71 SE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 71 71 S 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 76 78 S 7 3338 2730 630 Blue 6
10 AM Thu 81 84 S 8 4102 3739 1639 Blue 12
11 AM Thu 86 90 S 8 5841 4478 2378 Blue 18
12 Noon Thu 89 94 S 9 8722 6119 4019 Blue 22
1 PM Thu 92 97 S 10 10559 8096 5996 White 25
2 PM Thu 94 98 SW 12 10766 9996 7896 White 26
3 PM Thu 95 98 SW 13 10766 9996 7896 White 26
4 PM Thu 94 96 SW 14 10346 6745 4645 White 24
5 PM Thu 92 92 SW 14 6478 5477 3377 Blue 20
6 PM Thu 91 91 SW 14 6161 4968 2868 Blue 19
7 PM Thu 89 89 SW 13 5518 4330 2230 Blue 17
8 PM Thu 84 84 SW 10 4102 3739 1639 Blue 12
9 PM Thu 81 81 SW 9 3746 3320 1220 Blue 9
10 PM Thu 78 78 SW 8 3338 2730 630 Blue 6
11 PM Thu 76 76 SW 7 2783 2626 526 Blue 4
12 Midnight Fri 74 74 SW 7 2679 2470 370 Blue 2
1 AM Fri 73 73 S 7 2627 2470 370 Blue 1
2 AM Fri 72 72 S 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 71 71 S 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 70 70 S 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 68 68 S 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 67 67 S 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 66 66 S 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 67 68 S 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 73 75 S 6 2731 2470 370 Blue 3
10 AM Fri 78 82 S 6 3865 3503 1403 Blue 10
11 AM Fri 84 89 S 6 5518 4330 2230 Blue 17
12 Noon Fri 87 93 S 6 6793 5802 3702 Blue 21
1 PM Fri 91 97 SW 7 10559 8096 5996 White 25
2 PM Fri 93 98 SW 8 10766 9996 7896 White 26
3 PM Fri 95 99 SW 8 10973 10866 8766 White 27
4 PM Fri 94 96 SW 9 10346 6745 4645 White 24
5 PM Fri 92 92 W 10 6478 5477 3377 Blue 20
6 PM Fri 91 91 W 10 6161 4968 2868 Blue 19
7 PM Fri 89 89 W 10 5518 4330 2230 Blue 17
8 PM Fri 84 84 SW 9 4102 3739 1639 Blue 12
9 PM Fri 81 81 SW 8 3746 3320 1220 Blue 9
10 PM Fri 77 77 SW 7 2931 2678 578 Blue 5
11 PM Fri 76 76 SW 6 2783 2626 526 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sat 73 73 SW 5 2627 2470 370 Blue 1
1 AM Sat 73 73 SW 5 2627 2470 370 Blue 1
2 AM Sat 72 72 S 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 71 71 S 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 69 69 S 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 67 67 S 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 67 67 S 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 66 66 S 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 66 67 S 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 72 74 S 3 2679 2470 370 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 78 82 S 3 3865 3503 1403 Blue 10
11 AM Sat 84 89 S 3 5518 4330 2230 Blue 17
12 Noon Sat 87 93 S 3 6793 5802 3702 Blue 21
1 PM Sat 91 97 S 3 10559 8096 5996 White 25
2 PM Sat 93 98 SW 5 10766 9996 7896 White 26
3 PM Sat 95 99 SW 6 10973 10866 8766 White 27
4 PM Sat 94 96 W 6 10346 6745 4645 White 24
5 PM Sat 92 92 W 7 6478 5477 3377 Blue 20
6 PM Sat 91 91 W 7 6161 4968 2868 Blue 19
7 PM Sat 89 89 W 7 5518 4330 2230 Blue 17
8 PM Sat 84 84 W 6 4102 3739 1639 Blue 12
9 PM Sat 81 81 W 6 3746 3320 1220 Blue 9
10 PM Sat 78 78 SW 5 3338 2730 630 Blue 6
11 PM Sat 76 76 SW 3 2783 2626 526 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sun 74 74 SW 3 2679 2470 370 Blue 2
1 AM Sun 73 73 SW 3 2627 2470 370 Blue 1
2 AM Sun 73 73 S 3 2627 2470 370 Blue 1
3 AM Sun 72 72 S 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 70 70 S 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 68 68 SE 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 68 68 SE 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 66 66 SE 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 67 67 S 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 73 75 S 3 2731 2470 370 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 79 82 S 3 3865 3503 1403 Blue 10
11 AM Sun 84 88 S 3 5016 4212 2112 Blue 16
12 Noon Sun 88 93 S 3 6793 5802 3702 Blue 21
1 PM Sun 92 97 S 5 10559 8096 5996 White 25
2 PM Sun 93 97 S 5 10559 8096 5996 White 25
3 PM Sun 95 98 SW 6 10766 9996 7896 White 26
4 PM Sun 94 95 SW 7 10129 6434 4334 White 23
5 PM Sun 93 93 W 8 6793 5802 3702 Blue 21
6 PM Sun 92 92 W 8 6478 5477 3377 Blue 20
7 PM Sun 89 89 W 8 5518 4330 2230 Blue 17
8 PM Sun 85 85 SW 8 4220 3857 1757 Blue 13
9 PM Sun 82 82 SW 7 3865 3503 1403 Blue 10
10 PM Sun 79 79 SW 7 3509 2782 682 Blue 7
11 PM Sun 77 77 SW 6 2931 2678 578 Blue 5
12 Midnight Mon 75 75 SW 6 2731 2470 370 Blue 3
1 AM Mon 75 75 SW 6 2731 2470 370 Blue 3
2 AM Mon 74 74 S 6 2679 2470 370 Blue 2
3 AM Mon 73 73 S 6 2627 2470 370 Blue 1
4 AM Mon 71 71 S 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 70 70 S 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com