Detailed Predictions for: El Tiro Gliderport
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.427, -111.3895, 2100
LZ Altitude (f): 2100
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Fri 50 50 SSE 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 50 50 SSE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 49 49 SSE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 44 44 E 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 47 47 ESE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 46 46 ENE 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 42 42 NE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 47 47 E 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 49 49 SE 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 48 49 S 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 54 57 SW 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 57 61 WNW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 57 62 N 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 62 67 NNW 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 64 68 NNW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 64 67 NNW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 66 67 NNW 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 66 66 NNW 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 58 58 NW 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 63 63 NNW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 61 61 NNW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 55 55 NNW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 56 56 W 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 53 53 S 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 50 50 E 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 50 50 ESE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 49 49 SE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 48 48 SSE 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 48 48 SSE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 48 48 SSE 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 47 47 SE 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 49 49 SE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 51 51 SE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 52 53 SSE 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 57 59 SSE 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 61 64 S 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 64 67 SW 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 66 69 SW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 68 70 WSW 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 70 72 W 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 69 69 W 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 68 68 W 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 66 66 W 13 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 64 64 WNW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 62 62 NW 7 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 58 58 N 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 57 57 WNW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 55 55 WSW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 53 53 SW 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 53 53 SW 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 52 52 SW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 51 51 SW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 51 51 SW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 50 50 SW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 49 49 SW 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 50 50 SW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 52 52 SW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 52 53 WSW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 56 59 WSW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 59 63 W 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 60 65 W 17 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 63 68 W 14 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 64 68 W 16 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 59 62 W 25 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 62 63 W 20 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 59 59 W 22 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 58 58 NW 17 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 54 54 WSW 18 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 52 52 SSW 13 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 51 51 NNW 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 49 49 SE 7 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 48 48 ENE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com