Detailed Predictions for: El Tiro Gliderport
Launch Altitude (f): 2100
LZ Altitude (f): 2100
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

16 DEC 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 40 40 SE 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 39 39 SE 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 37 37 SE 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 38 38 SE 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 45 45 SE 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 52 52 SE 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 57 57 SE 9 3223 2776 676 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 61 61 S 10 3517 3267 1167 Blue 8
1 PM Sat 64 64 S 10 3797 3509 1409 Blue 11
2 PM Sat 66 66 S 10 4550 3719 1619 Blue 13
3 PM Sat 67 67 S 10 4848 3792 1692 Blue 14
4 PM Sat 66 66 S 9 4550 3719 1619 Blue 13
5 PM Sat 64 64 S 8 3797 3509 1409 Blue 11
6 PM Sat 60 60 S 7 3361 3221 1121 Blue 7
7 PM Sat 58 58 SE 7 3269 2956 856 Blue 5
8 PM Sat 55 55 SE 6 2961 2470 370 Blue 2
9 PM Sat 53 53 SE 7 2598 2470 370 Blue 1
10 PM Sat 52 52 SE 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 51 51 SE 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 50 50 SE 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 49 49 SE 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 48 48 SE 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 48 48 SE 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 48 48 SE 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 47 47 SE 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 47 47 SE 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 45 45 SE 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 46 46 SE 10 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 48 48 SE 10 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 51 51 S 12 0 2100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 53 53 S 12 2598 2470 370 Blue 1
12 Noon Sun 54 54 S 12 2780 2470 370 Blue 1
1 PM Sun 56 56 S 10 3141 2595 495 Blue 3
2 PM Sun 57 57 S 9 3223 2776 676 Blue 4
3 PM Sun 57 57 S 8 3223 2776 676 Blue 4
4 PM Sun 56 56 SW 7 3141 2595 495 Blue 3
5 PM Sun 54 54 SW 7 2780 2470 370 Blue 1
6 PM Sun 51 51 S 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 49 49 S 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 47 47 SE 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 45 45 SE 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 44 44 SE 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 43 43 SE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 43 43 SE 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 42 42 SE 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 41 41 SE 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 41 41 SE 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 41 41 SE 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 40 40 SE 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 40 40 SE 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 38 38 SE 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 39 39 SE 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 44 44 SE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 48 49 S 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 52 54 S 5 2780 2470 370 Blue 1
12 Noon Mon 54 56 SW 5 3141 2595 495 Blue 3
1 PM Mon 56 58 W 5 3269 2956 856 Blue 5
2 PM Mon 58 60 NW 5 3361 3221 1121 Blue 7
3 PM Mon 58 59 NW 6 3315 3135 1035 Blue 6
4 PM Mon 58 58 NW 6 3269 2956 856 Blue 5
5 PM Mon 55 55 NW 7 2961 2470 370 Blue 2
6 PM Mon 51 51 N 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 49 49 N 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 47 47 N 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 45 45 NE 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 44 44 E 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 42 42 E 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 42 42 E 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 41 41 SE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 39 39 SE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 40 40 SE 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 39 39 SE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 39 39 E 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 38 38 SE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 37 37 SE 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 38 38 SE 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 44 44 SE 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 50 51 SE 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 54 56 SE 3 3141 2595 495 Blue 3
12 Noon Tue 57 59 SE 5 3315 3135 1035 Blue 6
1 PM Tue 60 62 E 5 3649 3313 1213 Blue 9
2 PM Tue 62 64 NE 6 3797 3509 1409 Blue 11
3 PM Tue 63 64 N 6 3797 3509 1409 Blue 11
4 PM Tue 62 62 N 7 3649 3313 1213 Blue 9
5 PM Tue 59 59 NW 7 3315 3135 1035 Blue 6
6 PM Tue 55 55 N 7 2961 2470 370 Blue 2
7 PM Tue 53 53 N 7 2598 2470 370 Blue 1
8 PM Tue 50 50 NE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 47 47 NE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 46 46 E 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 44 44 E 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 44 44 E 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 42 42 E 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 41 41 E 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 42 42 E 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 41 41 E 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 40 40 E 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 40 40 SE 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 38 38 SE 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 39 39 SE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 46 46 SE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 53 54 SE 6 2780 2470 370 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 59 61 SE 6 3517 3267 1167 Blue 8
12 Noon Wed 62 64 S 6 3797 3509 1409 Blue 11
1 PM Wed 66 68 S 6 4950 4145 2045 Blue 15
2 PM Wed 68 70 SW 6 5153 4839 2739 Blue 17
3 PM Wed 69 70 W 6 5153 4839 2739 Blue 17
4 PM Wed 68 68 W 6 4950 4145 2045 Blue 15
5 PM Wed 64 64 W 7 3797 3509 1409 Blue 11
6 PM Wed 59 59 W 8 3315 3135 1035 Blue 6
7 PM Wed 56 56 W 8 3141 2595 495 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 53 53 SW 8 2598 2470 370 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 50 50 SW 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 48 48 S 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 47 47 S 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 46 46 S 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 44 44 S 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 43 43 S 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 44 44 SW 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 43 43 SW 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 42 42 SW 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 42 42 SW 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 39 39 SW 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 40 40 W 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 46 46 W 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 52 53 W 10 2598 2470 370 Blue 1
11 AM Thu 56 58 W 12 3269 2956 856 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 59 61 W 12 3517 3267 1167 Blue 8
1 PM Thu 62 64 W 12 3797 3509 1409 Blue 11
2 PM Thu 64 66 W 12 4550 3719 1619 Blue 13
3 PM Thu 64 65 NW 12 4170 3646 1546 Blue 12
4 PM Thu 64 64 NW 10 3797 3509 1409 Blue 11
5 PM Thu 60 60 NW 10 3361 3221 1121 Blue 7
6 PM Thu 54 54 NW 9 2780 2470 370 Blue 1
7 PM Thu 52 52 NW 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 48 48 N 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 45 45 N 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 43 43 N 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 41 41 N 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 41 41 NE 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 39 39 NE 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 38 38 NE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 38 38 NE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 37 37 NE 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com