Detailed Predictions for: El Tiro Gliderport
Launch Altitude (f): 2100
LZ Altitude (f): 2100
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

15 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Mon 79 79 S 2 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 78 78 S 2 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 83 84 S 2 2551 2470 370 Blue 1
9 AM Mon 89 92 S 2 3898 3085 985 Blue 9
10 AM Mon 94 98 NW 2 4763 4212 2112 Blue 15
11 AM Mon 97 103 NW 3 8040 6589 4489 Blue 20
12 Noon Mon 101 107 NW 5 11087 8658 6558 Blue 24
1 PM Mon 102 108 NW 6 11746 9676 7576 White 25
2 PM Mon 104 110 NW 6 12150 10968 8868 White 27
3 PM Mon 106 110 NW 7 12150 10968 8868 White 27
4 PM Mon 107 110 NW 7 12150 10968 8868 White 27
5 PM Mon 106 107 NW 7 11087 8658 6558 Blue 24
6 PM Mon 105 105 NW 7 9915 7652 5552 Blue 22
7 PM Mon 104 104 NW 7 8892 7323 5223 Blue 21
8 PM Mon 100 100 NW 7 6754 4458 2358 Blue 17
9 PM Mon 96 96 W 6 4304 4040 1940 Blue 13
10 PM Mon 94 94 W 5 4132 3596 1496 Blue 11
11 PM Mon 92 92 W 3 3898 3085 985 Blue 9
12 Midnight Tue 90 90 W 3 3321 2894 794 Blue 7
1 AM Tue 87 87 SW 2 2897 2548 448 Blue 4
2 AM Tue 85 85 S 2 2705 2470 370 Blue 2
3 AM Tue 84 84 S 2 2551 2470 370 Blue 1
4 AM Tue 82 82 S 2 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 81 81 S 2 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 80 80 S 2 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 79 79 S 2 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 84 85 S 3 2705 2470 370 Blue 2
9 AM Tue 90 93 S 3 4046 3309 1209 Blue 10
10 AM Tue 95 100 S 2 6754 4458 2358 Blue 17
11 AM Tue 99 105 SW 2 9915 7652 5552 Blue 22
12 Noon Tue 102 109 W 2 11949 10557 8457 White 26
1 PM Tue 103 109 W 3 11949 10557 8457 White 26
2 PM Tue 106 112 W 6 12553 12553 10453 White 29
3 PM Tue 107 112 W 8 12553 12553 10453 White 29
4 PM Tue 109 112 W 9 12553 12553 10453 White 29
5 PM Tue 107 108 W 10 11746 9676 7576 White 25
6 PM Tue 107 107 W 10 11087 8658 6558 Blue 24
7 PM Tue 105 105 W 9 9915 7652 5552 Blue 22
8 PM Tue 102 102 W 8 7711 5378 3278 Blue 19
9 PM Tue 97 97 SW 7 4481 4126 2026 Blue 14
10 PM Tue 94 94 SW 7 4132 3596 1496 Blue 11
11 PM Tue 92 92 SW 6 3898 3085 985 Blue 9
12 Midnight Wed 91 91 SW 6 3611 2989 889 Blue 8
1 AM Wed 88 88 SW 6 2992 2703 603 Blue 5
2 AM Wed 86 86 S 5 2801 2470 370 Blue 3
3 AM Wed 85 85 S 5 2705 2470 370 Blue 2
4 AM Wed 82 82 S 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 81 81 S 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 81 81 S 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 80 80 S 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 84 85 S 5 2705 2470 370 Blue 2
9 AM Wed 89 91 S 6 3611 2989 889 Blue 8
10 AM Wed 92 96 S 6 4304 4040 1940 Blue 13
11 AM Wed 95 100 SW 5 6754 4458 2358 Blue 17
12 Noon Wed 98 103 SW 5 8040 6589 4489 Blue 20
1 PM Wed 99 104 SW 5 8892 7323 5223 Blue 21
2 PM Wed 101 105 W 6 9915 7652 5552 Blue 22
3 PM Wed 102 105 W 7 9915 7652 5552 Blue 22
4 PM Wed 103 105 W 8 9915 7652 5552 Blue 22
5 PM Wed 102 103 SW 9 8040 6589 4489 Blue 20
6 PM Wed 101 101 SW 9 7379 4738 2638 Blue 18
7 PM Wed 100 100 SW 9 6754 4458 2358 Blue 17
8 PM Wed 97 97 SW 8 4481 4126 2026 Blue 14
9 PM Wed 93 93 SW 7 4046 3309 1209 Blue 10
10 PM Wed 90 90 SW 7 3321 2894 794 Blue 7
11 PM Wed 89 89 SW 6 3088 2798 698 Blue 6
12 Midnight Thu 87 87 S 6 2897 2548 448 Blue 4
1 AM Thu 85 85 S 5 2705 2470 370 Blue 2
2 AM Thu 83 83 S 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 82 82 S 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 80 80 S 2 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 79 79 S 2 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 78 78 S 2 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 77 77 S 2 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 81 82 S 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 86 87 S 3 2897 2548 448 Blue 4
10 AM Thu 90 92 S 3 3898 3085 985 Blue 9
11 AM Thu 93 96 W 3 4304 4040 1940 Blue 13
12 Noon Thu 96 100 W 3 6754 4458 2358 Blue 17
1 PM Thu 96 100 W 5 6754 4458 2358 Blue 17
2 PM Thu 99 103 W 5 8040 6589 4489 Blue 20
3 PM Thu 100 103 W 6 8040 6589 4489 Blue 20
4 PM Thu 101 103 W 7 8040 6589 4489 Blue 20
5 PM Thu 100 101 W 7 7379 4738 2638 Blue 18
6 PM Thu 99 99 W 7 5523 4298 2198 Blue 16
7 PM Thu 98 98 W 6 4763 4212 2112 Blue 15
8 PM Thu 95 95 W 6 4218 3881 1781 Blue 12
9 PM Thu 91 91 W 5 3611 2989 889 Blue 8
10 PM Thu 89 89 W 5 3088 2798 698 Blue 6
11 PM Thu 87 87 W 6 2897 2548 448 Blue 4
12 Midnight Fri 86 86 SW 6 2801 2470 370 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 83 83 SW 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 82 82 SW 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 81 81 SW 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 78 78 S 2 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 78 78 S 2 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 77 77 S 2 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 76 76 S 2 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 81 82 S 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 86 88 S 3 2992 2703 603 Blue 5
10 AM Fri 90 93 SW 3 4046 3309 1209 Blue 10
11 AM Fri 94 98 W 5 4763 4212 2112 Blue 15
12 Noon Fri 97 102 W 5 7711 5378 3278 Blue 19
1 PM Fri 97 102 W 6 7711 5378 3278 Blue 19
2 PM Fri 100 104 NW 6 8892 7323 5223 Blue 21
3 PM Fri 101 104 NW 7 8892 7323 5223 Blue 21
4 PM Fri 102 104 NW 8 8892 7323 5223 Blue 21
5 PM Fri 101 102 NW 8 7711 5378 3278 Blue 19
6 PM Fri 100 100 NW 8 6754 4458 2358 Blue 17
7 PM Fri 99 99 NW 7 5523 4298 2198 Blue 16
8 PM Fri 96 96 W 7 4304 4040 1940 Blue 13
9 PM Fri 92 92 W 6 3898 3085 985 Blue 9
10 PM Fri 90 90 W 6 3321 2894 794 Blue 7
11 PM Fri 88 88 W 6 2992 2703 603 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sat 86 86 SW 6 2801 2470 370 Blue 3
1 AM Sat 84 84 SW 5 2551 2470 370 Blue 1
2 AM Sat 82 82 SW 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 81 81 S 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 79 79 S 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 78 78 S 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 77 77 S 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 76 76 S 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 81 82 S 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 86 88 S 5 2992 2703 603 Blue 5
10 AM Sat 90 93 SW 5 4046 3309 1209 Blue 10
11 AM Sat 93 97 W 5 4481 4126 2026 Blue 14
12 Noon Sat 96 101 W 5 7379 4738 2638 Blue 18
1 PM Sat 97 102 W 6 7711 5378 3278 Blue 19
2 PM Sat 100 104 W 6 8892 7323 5223 Blue 21
3 PM Sat 100 103 W 7 8040 6589 4489 Blue 20
4 PM Sat 102 104 W 8 8892 7323 5223 Blue 21
5 PM Sat 100 101 W 8 7379 4738 2638 Blue 18
6 PM Sat 100 100 W 8 6754 4458 2358 Blue 17
7 PM Sat 99 99 W 8 5523 4298 2198 Blue 16
8 PM Sat 95 95 W 7 4218 3881 1781 Blue 12
9 PM Sat 92 92 W 7 3898 3085 985 Blue 9
10 PM Sat 89 89 W 7 3088 2798 698 Blue 6
11 PM Sat 87 87 SW 6 2897 2548 448 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sun 85 85 SW 6 2705 2470 370 Blue 2
1 AM Sun 83 83 SW 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 81 81 S 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 80 80 S 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 78 78 S 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 77 77 S 2 0 2100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com