Detailed Predictions for: El Tiro Gliderport
Launch Altitude (f): 2100
LZ Altitude (f): 2100
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 42 42 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 41 41 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 40 40 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 40 40 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 45 45 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 51 52 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 57 59 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 62 65 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 66 69 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 67 69 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 68 69 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 68 68 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 66 66 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 62 62 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 57 57 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 55 55 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 52 52 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 51 51 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 50 50 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 49 49 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 47 47 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 47 47 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 46 46 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 46 46 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 46 46 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 45 45 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 45 45 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 44 44 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 48 48 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 53 54 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 57 58 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 61 63 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 64 66 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 64 66 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 65 66 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 65 65 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 63 63 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 58 58 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 53 53 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 50 50 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 47 47 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 45 45 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 44 44 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 42 42 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 41 41 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 41 41 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 40 40 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 40 40 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 39 39 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 39 39 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 38 38 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 38 38 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 42 42 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 49 50 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 55 57 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 60 63 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 63 66 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 65 68 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 66 67 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 65 65 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 63 63 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 58 58 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 54 54 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 51 51 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 48 48 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 46 46 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 45 45 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 44 44 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 42 42 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 42 42 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 41 41 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 41 41 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 41 41 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 40 40 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 40 40 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 39 39 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 45 45 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 52 53 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 59 60 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 64 66 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 69 71 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 70 71 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 72 73 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 71 71 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 69 69 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 63 63 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 58 58 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 55 55 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 51 51 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 49 49 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 48 48 E 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 46 46 E 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 44 44 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 44 44 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 43 43 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 43 43 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 43 43 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 42 42 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 41 41 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 41 41 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 46 46 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 52 53 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 58 60 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 62 64 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 66 69 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 67 69 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 68 69 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 68 68 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 65 65 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 59 59 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 53 53 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 49 49 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 45 45 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 43 43 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 42 42 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 40 40 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 38 38 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 38 38 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 37 37 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 37 37 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 36 36 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 36 36 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 35 35 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 34 34 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 39 39 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 45 46 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 50 52 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 55 58 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 58 61 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 60 62 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 60 61 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 60 60 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 58 58 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 53 53 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 48 48 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 46 46 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 42 42 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 41 41 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 39 39 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 38 38 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 36 36 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 36 36 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 35 35 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 35 35 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com