Detailed Predictions for: El Tiro Gliderport
Launch Altitude (f): 2100
LZ Altitude (f): 2100
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

26 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 52 52 SE 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 52 52 SE 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 51 51 SE 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 58 59 SE 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 66 69 S 5 2983 2895 795 Blue 10
11 AM Tue 72 76 S 5 3686 3213 1113 Blue 17
12 Noon Tue 78 82 S 5 5252 4502 2402 Blue 23
1 PM Tue 81 85 S 5 6664 5203 3103 Blue 26
2 PM Tue 83 86 S 6 7115 5678 3578 Blue 27
3 PM Tue 85 87 SW 7 8510 6142 4042 Blue 28
4 PM Tue 86 87 W 7 8510 6142 4042 Blue 28
5 PM Tue 86 86 W 8 7115 5678 3578 Blue 27
6 PM Tue 84 84 W 8 6204 4822 2722 Blue 25
7 PM Tue 82 82 W 8 5252 4502 2402 Blue 23
8 PM Tue 76 76 W 8 3686 3213 1113 Blue 17
9 PM Tue 73 73 W 7 3219 3011 911 Blue 14
10 PM Tue 70 70 SW 7 3011 2924 824 Blue 11
11 PM Tue 68 68 SW 6 2954 2866 766 Blue 9
12 Midnight Wed 66 66 SW 6 2896 2743 643 Blue 7
1 AM Wed 62 62 SW 6 2678 2470 370 Blue 3
2 AM Wed 61 61 S 6 2611 2470 370 Blue 2
3 AM Wed 59 59 S 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 57 57 S 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 56 56 S 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 56 56 SE 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 55 55 S 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 54 54 S 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 60 61 S 3 2611 2470 370 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 67 68 S 3 2954 2866 766 Blue 9
11 AM Wed 72 73 S 3 3219 3011 911 Blue 14
12 Noon Wed 77 79 SW 3 4508 3678 1578 Blue 20
1 PM Wed 80 82 SW 5 5252 4502 2402 Blue 23
2 PM Wed 81 82 SW 6 5252 4502 2402 Blue 23
3 PM Wed 83 84 SW 7 6204 4822 2722 Blue 25
4 PM Wed 84 84 W 9 6204 4822 2722 Blue 25
5 PM Wed 84 84 W 9 6204 4822 2722 Blue 25
6 PM Wed 82 82 W 10 5252 4502 2402 Blue 23
7 PM Wed 80 80 W 10 4578 3833 1733 Blue 21
8 PM Wed 74 74 W 9 3375 3040 940 Blue 15
9 PM Wed 71 71 SW 8 3040 2953 853 Blue 12
10 PM Wed 68 68 SW 7 2954 2866 766 Blue 9
11 PM Wed 66 66 SW 6 2896 2743 643 Blue 7
12 Midnight Thu 64 64 SW 5 2812 2610 510 Blue 5
1 AM Thu 60 60 SW 5 2532 2470 370 Blue 1
2 AM Thu 59 59 SW 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 57 57 S 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 55 55 S 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 54 54 S 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 54 54 S 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 53 53 S 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 52 53 SW 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 58 60 SW 3 2532 2470 370 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 65 69 SW 5 2983 2895 795 Blue 10
11 AM Thu 71 76 W 5 3686 3213 1113 Blue 17
12 Noon Thu 75 81 W 6 4849 4220 2120 Blue 22
1 PM Thu 78 84 W 7 6204 4822 2722 Blue 25
2 PM Thu 80 85 W 8 6664 5203 3103 Blue 26
3 PM Thu 81 84 W 10 6204 4822 2722 Blue 25
4 PM Thu 82 84 W 12 6204 4822 2722 Blue 25
5 PM Thu 83 83 W 13 5734 4572 2472 Blue 24
6 PM Thu 81 81 W 13 4849 4220 2120 Blue 22
7 PM Thu 78 78 W 13 4266 3523 1423 Blue 19
8 PM Thu 72 72 W 12 3069 2982 882 Blue 13
9 PM Thu 68 68 W 10 2954 2866 766 Blue 9
10 PM Thu 66 66 W 9 2896 2743 643 Blue 7
11 PM Thu 63 63 W 8 2745 2531 431 Blue 4
12 Midnight Fri 61 61 SW 7 2611 2470 370 Blue 2
1 AM Fri 57 57 SW 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 56 56 SW 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 54 54 SW 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 52 52 SW 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 50 50 SW 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 50 50 S 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 49 49 SW 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 48 49 SW 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 54 56 W 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 61 65 W 6 2867 2677 577 Blue 6
11 AM Fri 67 72 W 7 3069 2982 882 Blue 13
12 Noon Fri 71 77 NW 7 3842 3368 1268 Blue 18
1 PM Fri 74 79 NW 8 4508 3678 1578 Blue 20
2 PM Fri 76 81 NW 9 4849 4220 2120 Blue 22
3 PM Fri 77 80 NW 10 4578 3833 1733 Blue 21
4 PM Fri 78 80 NW 10 4578 3833 1733 Blue 21
5 PM Fri 79 79 NW 12 4508 3678 1578 Blue 20
6 PM Fri 77 77 NW 12 3842 3368 1268 Blue 18
7 PM Fri 74 74 NW 10 3375 3040 940 Blue 15
8 PM Fri 69 69 W 10 2983 2895 795 Blue 10
9 PM Fri 66 66 W 9 2896 2743 643 Blue 7
10 PM Fri 63 63 W 8 2745 2531 431 Blue 4
11 PM Fri 61 61 W 7 2611 2470 370 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sat 59 59 W 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 55 55 SW 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 54 54 SW 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 52 52 SW 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 50 50 S 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 49 49 S 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 49 49 S 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 48 48 S 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 47 47 S 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 54 55 S 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 61 64 SE 5 2812 2610 510 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 66 70 SE 5 3011 2924 824 Blue 11
12 Noon Sat 71 75 SE 5 3531 3068 968 Blue 16
1 PM Sat 74 78 SE 6 4266 3523 1423 Blue 19
2 PM Sat 76 80 E 7 4578 3833 1733 Blue 21
3 PM Sat 78 81 NE 8 4849 4220 2120 Blue 22
4 PM Sat 78 79 N 9 4508 3678 1578 Blue 20
5 PM Sat 79 79 N 10 4508 3678 1578 Blue 20
6 PM Sat 77 77 NW 10 3842 3368 1268 Blue 18
7 PM Sat 74 74 NW 10 3375 3040 940 Blue 15
8 PM Sat 69 69 N 9 2983 2895 795 Blue 10
9 PM Sat 66 66 NE 8 2896 2743 643 Blue 7
10 PM Sat 64 64 NE 7 2812 2610 510 Blue 5
11 PM Sat 61 61 E 6 2611 2470 370 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sun 59 59 E 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 56 56 E 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 54 54 E 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 53 53 E 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 51 51 E 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 50 50 E 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 49 49 E 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 48 48 E 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 48 49 E 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 54 56 SE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 60 64 SE 6 2812 2610 510 Blue 5
11 AM Sun 66 71 SE 7 3040 2953 853 Blue 12
12 Noon Sun 70 76 SE 8 3686 3213 1113 Blue 17
1 PM Sun 73 79 SE 8 4508 3678 1578 Blue 20
2 PM Sun 75 80 E 9 4578 3833 1733 Blue 21
3 PM Sun 76 80 NE 10 4578 3833 1733 Blue 21
4 PM Sun 77 79 N 12 4508 3678 1578 Blue 20
5 PM Sun 78 78 N 13 4266 3523 1423 Blue 19
6 PM Sun 76 76 NW 13 3686 3213 1113 Blue 17
7 PM Sun 73 73 NW 12 3219 3011 911 Blue 14
8 PM Sun 68 68 NW 12 2954 2866 766 Blue 9
9 PM Sun 64 64 NW 10 2812 2610 510 Blue 5
10 PM Sun 62 62 NW 9 2678 2470 370 Blue 3
11 PM Sun 60 60 NW 8 2532 2470 370 Blue 1
12 Midnight Mon 57 57 NW 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 54 54 NW 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 52 52 N 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 51 51 N 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 49 49 NE 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 47 47 E 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com