Detailed Predictions for: El Tiro Gliderport
Launch Altitude (f): 2100
LZ Altitude (f): 2100
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

21 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sat 76 76 E 12 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 76 76 SE 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 77 77 S 5 2028 2100 0 White 0
9 AM Sat 81 82 S 7 2028 2100 0 White 0
10 AM Sat 84 86 S 6 2028 2100 0 White 0
11 AM Sat 88 92 E 3 3173 3173 1073 White 13
12 Noon Sat 91 96 W 5 4057 4057 1957 White 17
1 PM Sat 95 100 W 6 4954 4954 2854 White 21
2 PM Sat 95 99 W 7 4724 4724 2624 White 20
3 PM Sat 97 100 W 9 4954 4954 2854 White 21
4 PM Sat 97 99 W 10 4724 4724 2624 White 20
5 PM Sat 98 99 W 9 4724 4724 2624 White 20
6 PM Sat 100 100 W 9 4954 4954 2854 White 21
7 PM Sat 96 96 W 9 4057 4057 1957 White 17
8 PM Sat 94 94 W 8 3615 3615 1515 White 15
9 PM Sat 89 89 W 7 2504 2504 404 White 10
10 PM Sat 87 87 W 7 2053 2100 0 White 0
11 PM Sat 85 85 S 6 2028 2100 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 83 83 S 5 2028 2100 0 White 0
1 AM Sun 82 82 S 5 2028 2100 0 White 0
2 AM Sun 80 80 S 6 2028 2100 0 White 0
3 AM Sun 79 79 S 6 2028 2100 0 White 0
4 AM Sun 78 78 SE 5 2028 2100 0 White 0
5 AM Sun 77 77 SE 3 2028 2100 0 White 0
6 AM Sun 76 76 S 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 76 76 S 2 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 77 78 SE 1 2028 2100 0 White 0
9 AM Sun 82 85 SE 2 2028 2100 0 White 0
10 AM Sun 86 90 W 3 2727 2727 627 White 11
11 AM Sun 90 96 NW 5 4057 4057 1957 White 17
12 Noon Sun 94 101 N 7 5175 5175 3075 White 22
1 PM Sun 97 104 NW 8 5825 5825 3725 White 25
2 PM Sun 98 104 NW 8 5825 5825 3725 White 25
3 PM Sun 101 106 NW 9 6255 6255 4155 White 27
4 PM Sun 101 104 NW 10 5825 5825 3725 White 25
5 PM Sun 102 103 NW 12 5608 5608 3508 White 24
6 PM Sun 103 103 NW 10 5608 5608 3508 White 24
7 PM Sun 99 99 NW 12 4724 4724 2624 White 20
8 PM Sun 97 97 NW 10 4276 4276 2176 White 18
9 PM Sun 92 92 NW 9 3173 3173 1073 White 13
10 PM Sun 90 90 NW 8 2727 2727 627 White 11
11 PM Sun 88 88 W 8 2278 2278 178 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 85 85 W 7 2028 2100 0 White 0
1 AM Mon 84 84 SW 7 2028 2100 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 82 82 SW 6 2028 2100 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 81 81 S 3 2028 2100 0 White 0
4 AM Mon 80 80 SE 3 2028 2100 0 White 0
5 AM Mon 79 79 S 5 2028 2100 0 White 0
6 AM Mon 78 78 S 5 2028 2100 0 White 0
7 AM Mon 77 77 S 5 2028 2100 0 White 0
8 AM Mon 79 80 S 3 2028 2100 0 White 0
9 AM Mon 85 88 SW 3 2278 2278 178 White 0
10 AM Mon 89 94 SW 3 3615 3615 1515 White 15
11 AM Mon 93 99 SW 3 4724 4724 2624 White 20
12 Noon Mon 98 105 SW 5 6040 6040 3940 White 26
1 PM Mon 102 109 NW 5 6900 6900 4800 White 30
2 PM Mon 102 108 NW 6 6685 6685 4585 White 29
3 PM Mon 106 111 NW 7 7326 7326 5226 White 32
4 PM Mon 106 109 NW 7 6900 6900 4800 White 30
5 PM Mon 107 108 NW 7 6685 6685 4585 White 29
6 PM Mon 109 109 NW 8 6900 6900 4800 White 30
7 PM Mon 104 104 NW 8 5825 5825 3725 White 25
8 PM Mon 102 102 NW 8 5392 5392 3292 White 23
9 PM Mon 96 96 N 8 4057 4057 1957 White 17
10 PM Mon 94 94 N 7 3615 3615 1515 White 15
11 PM Mon 91 91 NE 7 2950 2950 850 White 12
12 Midnight Tue 89 89 NE 6 2504 2504 404 White 10
1 AM Tue 87 87 E 5 2053 2100 0 White 0
2 AM Tue 85 85 E 5 2028 2100 0 White 0
3 AM Tue 84 84 E 3 2028 2100 0 White 0
4 AM Tue 83 83 E 3 2028 2100 0 White 0
5 AM Tue 82 82 E 3 2028 2100 0 White 0
6 AM Tue 80 80 E 3 2028 2100 0 White 0
7 AM Tue 80 80 E 3 2028 2100 0 White 0
8 AM Tue 82 83 SE 3 2028 2100 0 White 0
9 AM Tue 88 91 SE 3 2950 2950 850 White 12
10 AM Tue 92 96 SE 3 4057 4057 1957 White 17
11 AM Tue 96 102 SE 3 5392 5392 3292 White 23
12 Noon Tue 101 107 S 3 6470 6470 4370 White 28
1 PM Tue 106 112 S 5 7539 7539 5439 White 33
2 PM Tue 106 112 S 6 7539 7539 5439 White 33
3 PM Tue 110 114 SW 7 7963 7963 5863 White 35
4 PM Tue 110 113 W 7 7751 7751 5651 White 34
5 PM Tue 111 112 W 8 7539 7539 5439 White 33
6 PM Tue 113 113 NW 9 7751 7751 5651 White 34
7 PM Tue 108 108 W 9 6685 6685 4585 White 29
8 PM Tue 105 105 W 9 6040 6040 3940 White 26
9 PM Tue 99 99 W 9 4724 4724 2624 White 20
10 PM Tue 96 96 SW 8 4057 4057 1957 White 17
11 PM Tue 93 93 SW 8 3394 3394 1294 White 14
12 Midnight Wed 90 90 S 7 2727 2727 627 White 11
1 AM Wed 89 89 S 7 2504 2504 404 White 10
2 AM Wed 87 87 SE 6 2053 2100 0 White 0
3 AM Wed 85 85 SE 6 2028 2100 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 84 84 SE 6 2028 2100 0 White 0
5 AM Wed 82 82 SE 6 2028 2100 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 81 81 SE 6 2028 2100 0 White 0
7 AM Wed 80 80 SE 6 2028 2100 0 White 0
8 AM Wed 82 83 S 6 2028 2100 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 88 90 SW 5 2727 2727 627 White 11
10 AM Wed 92 96 SW 5 4057 4057 1957 White 17
11 AM Wed 95 100 W 6 4954 4954 2854 White 21
12 Noon Wed 100 105 W 6 6040 6040 3940 White 26
1 PM Wed 104 109 W 7 6900 6900 4800 White 30
2 PM Wed 104 109 W 9 6900 6900 4800 White 30
3 PM Wed 108 111 NW 10 7326 7326 5226 White 32
4 PM Wed 107 109 NW 13 6900 6900 4800 White 30
5 PM Wed 109 110 NW 14 7113 7113 5013 White 31
6 PM Wed 110 110 NW 16 7113 7113 5013 White 31
7 PM Wed 105 105 NW 15 6040 6040 3940 White 26
8 PM Wed 103 103 W 15 5608 5608 3508 White 24
9 PM Wed 97 97 W 14 4276 4276 2176 White 18
10 PM Wed 94 94 SW 13 3615 3615 1515 White 15
11 PM Wed 91 91 SW 10 2950 2950 850 White 12
12 Midnight Thu 88 88 S 9 2278 2278 178 White 0
1 AM Thu 87 87 S 8 2053 2100 0 White 0
2 AM Thu 85 85 S 7 2028 2100 0 White 0
3 AM Thu 83 83 SE 6 2028 2100 0 White 0
4 AM Thu 82 82 SE 6 2028 2100 0 White 0
5 AM Thu 81 81 SE 6 2028 2100 0 White 0
6 AM Thu 79 79 SE 6 2028 2100 0 White 0
7 AM Thu 79 79 S 6 2028 2100 0 White 0
8 AM Thu 80 81 S 6 2028 2100 0 White 0
9 AM Thu 85 87 SW 6 2053 2100 0 White 0
10 AM Thu 88 92 SW 6 3173 3173 1073 White 13
11 AM Thu 92 97 W 6 4276 4276 2176 White 18
12 Noon Thu 96 102 W 7 5392 5392 3292 White 23
1 PM Thu 99 105 W 8 6040 6040 3940 White 26
2 PM Thu 100 105 W 9 6040 6040 3940 White 26
3 PM Thu 102 106 W 12 6255 6255 4155 White 27
4 PM Thu 102 104 W 13 5825 5825 3725 White 25
5 PM Thu 104 105 W 14 6040 6040 3940 White 26
6 PM Thu 105 105 W 15 6040 6040 3940 White 26
7 PM Thu 100 100 W 14 4954 4954 2854 White 21
8 PM Thu 98 98 W 14 4496 4496 2396 White 19
9 PM Thu 93 93 SW 13 3394 3394 1294 White 14
10 PM Thu 90 90 SW 10 2727 2727 627 White 11
11 PM Thu 88 88 SW 9 2278 2278 178 White 0
12 Midnight Fri 85 85 S 8 2028 2100 0 White 0
1 AM Fri 84 84 S 6 2028 2100 0 White 0
2 AM Fri 82 82 S 5 2028 2100 0 White 0
3 AM Fri 80 80 SE 5 2028 2100 0 White 0
4 AM Fri 80 80 SE 5 2028 2100 0 White 0
5 AM Fri 78 78 SE 5 2028 2100 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com