Detailed Predictions for: El Tiro Gliderport
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.427, -111.3895, 2100
LZ Altitude (f): 2100
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

16 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 77 77 SSW 4 6 2822 2632 532 Blue 4
1 AM Thu 76 76 SW 4 6 2759 2467 367 Blue 3
2 AM Thu 74 74 WSW 4 6 2633 2467 367 Blue 1
3 AM Thu 74 74 SW 4 6 2633 2467 367 Blue 1
4 AM Thu 73 73 SW 5 9 0 2467 367 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 70 70 SSE 4 6 0 2467 367 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 70 70 SSE 5 9 0 2467 367 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 69 69 SSE 4 6 0 2467 367 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 76 77 SSE 6 10 2822 2632 532 Blue 4
9 AM Thu 83 85 SE 6 10 3481 3270 1170 Blue 12
10 AM Thu 90 94 E 5 9 7787 4264 2164 Blue 21
11 AM Thu 94 100 E 3 5 13926 9787 7687 White 27
12 Noon Thu 96 103 E 2 3 14538 14538 12438 White 30
1 PM Thu 99 106 W 2 3 15147 15147 13047 White 33
2 PM Thu 100 106 S 3 5 15147 15147 13047 White 33
3 PM Thu 100 104 NNW 9 13 14740 14740 12640 White 31
4 PM Thu 101 103 SSE 6 10 14538 14538 12438 White 30
5 PM Thu 99 99 NNW 9 13 13722 9118 7018 White 26
6 PM Thu 96 96 NNW 6 10 9265 6478 4378 Blue 23
7 PM Thu 91 91 SE 4 6 4275 3689 1589 Blue 18
8 PM Thu 87 87 SE 6 10 3621 3409 1309 Blue 14
9 PM Thu 85 85 E 6 10 3481 3270 1170 Blue 12
10 PM Thu 83 83 S 8 12 3342 3131 1031 Blue 10
11 PM Thu 81 81 SSW 8 12 3202 2884 784 Blue 8
12 Midnight Fri 79 79 SSW 9 13 3001 2758 658 Blue 6
1 AM Fri 77 77 SE 8 12 2822 2632 532 Blue 4
2 AM Fri 76 76 SSE 9 13 2759 2467 367 Blue 3
3 AM Fri 74 74 S 8 12 2633 2467 367 Blue 1
4 AM Fri 74 74 S 8 12 2633 2467 367 Blue 1
5 AM Fri 72 72 SSE 5 9 0 2467 367 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 71 71 SSE 6 10 0 2467 367 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 73 73 E 6 10 0 2467 367 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 78 78 SSE 3 5 2885 2695 595 Blue 5
9 AM Fri 82 84 SSE 4 6 3412 3200 1100 Blue 11
10 AM Fri 87 90 ESE 2 3 4075 3619 1519 Blue 17
11 AM Fri 91 95 NW 2 3 8549 5086 2986 Blue 22
12 Noon Fri 94 99 S 4 6 13722 9118 7018 White 26
1 PM Fri 95 100 NNW 4 6 13926 9787 7687 White 27
2 PM Fri 96 100 NW 5 9 13926 9787 7687 White 27
3 PM Fri 97 100 W 12 19 13926 9787 7687 White 27
4 PM Fri 96 97 SSW 11 17 9942 7628 5528 Blue 24
5 PM Fri 94 94 S 19 29 7787 4264 2164 Blue 21
6 PM Fri 91 91 S 18 27 4275 3689 1589 Blue 18
7 PM Fri 86 86 SW 10 16 3551 3340 1240 Blue 13
8 PM Fri 82 82 WSW 11 17 3272 2999 899 Blue 9
9 PM Fri 80 80 SW 9 13 3132 2821 721 Blue 7
10 PM Fri 79 79 SSE 12 19 3001 2758 658 Blue 6
11 PM Fri 78 78 SSE 6 10 2885 2695 595 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sat 77 77 SSE 4 6 2822 2632 532 Blue 4
1 AM Sat 75 75 SE 4 6 2696 2467 367 Blue 2
2 AM Sat 73 73 SE 4 6 0 2467 367 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 72 72 SE 4 6 0 2467 367 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 70 70 SSE 3 5 0 2467 367 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 70 70 SSE 3 5 0 2467 367 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 71 71 SSE 3 5 0 2467 367 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 73 73 S 3 5 0 2467 367 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 76 77 SSW 3 5 2822 2632 532 Blue 4
9 AM Sat 80 82 SW 3 5 3272 2999 899 Blue 9
10 AM Sat 84 88 WSW 3 5 3691 3479 1379 Blue 15
11 AM Sat 88 93 W 4 6 6639 4065 1965 Blue 20
12 Noon Sat 90 96 W 4 6 9265 6478 4378 Blue 23
1 PM Sat 93 99 W 5 9 13722 9118 7018 White 26
2 PM Sat 94 100 W 6 10 13926 9787 7687 White 27
3 PM Sat 96 100 W 6 10 13926 9787 7687 White 27
4 PM Sat 96 98 WNW 8 12 13516 8410 6310 White 25
5 PM Sat 95 96 WNW 9 13 9265 6478 4378 Blue 23
6 PM Sat 91 91 W 8 12 4275 3689 1589 Blue 18
7 PM Sat 87 87 W 8 12 3621 3409 1309 Blue 14
8 PM Sat 84 84 WSW 6 10 3412 3200 1100 Blue 11
9 PM Sat 81 81 SW 6 10 3202 2884 784 Blue 8
10 PM Sat 80 80 SSW 5 9 3132 2821 721 Blue 7
11 PM Sat 79 79 S 4 6 3001 2758 658 Blue 6
12 Midnight Sun 78 78 S 3 5 2885 2695 595 Blue 5
1 AM Sun 76 76 SSE 3 5 2759 2467 367 Blue 3
2 AM Sun 75 75 SSE 2 3 2696 2467 367 Blue 2
3 AM Sun 73 73 SSE 2 3 0 2467 367 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 72 72 SSE 2 3 0 2467 367 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 71 71 SSE 2 3 0 2467 367 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 72 72 SSE 2 3 0 2467 367 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 73 73 S 2 3 0 2467 367 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 77 78 S 2 3 2885 2695 595 Blue 5
9 AM Sun 81 83 S 2 3 3342 3131 1031 Blue 10
10 AM Sun 86 90 SSW 2 3 4075 3619 1519 Blue 17
11 AM Sun 90 96 SSW 3 5 9265 6478 4378 Blue 23
12 Noon Sun 94 101 SSW 4 6 14130 14130 12030 White 28
1 PM Sun 96 102 SW 6 10 14334 14334 12234 White 29
2 PM Sun 97 103 WSW 8 12 14538 14538 12438 White 30
3 PM Sun 98 102 WSW 10 16 14334 14334 12234 White 29
4 PM Sun 98 100 W 12 19 13926 9787 7687 White 27
5 PM Sun 97 98 W 13 20 13516 8410 6310 White 25
6 PM Sun 94 94 W 12 19 7787 4264 2164 Blue 21
7 PM Sun 90 90 WSW 12 19 4075 3619 1519 Blue 17
8 PM Sun 85 85 WSW 11 17 3481 3270 1170 Blue 12
9 PM Sun 82 82 SW 10 16 3272 2999 899 Blue 9
10 PM Sun 80 80 SW 8 12 3132 2821 721 Blue 7
11 PM Sun 78 78 SSW 6 10 2885 2695 595 Blue 5
12 Midnight Mon 77 77 S 4 6 2822 2632 532 Blue 4
1 AM Mon 75 75 S 3 5 2696 2467 367 Blue 2
2 AM Mon 74 74 S 3 5 2633 2467 367 Blue 1
3 AM Mon 71 71 S 2 3 0 2467 367 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 70 70 S 2 3 0 2467 367 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 68 68 S 3 5 0 2467 367 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 69 69 S 3 5 0 2467 367 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 71 71 S 4 6 0 2467 367 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 74 75 SSW 4 6 2696 2467 367 Blue 2
9 AM Mon 79 81 SSW 5 9 3202 2884 784 Blue 8
10 AM Mon 85 89 SW 6 10 3874 3549 1449 Blue 16
11 AM Mon 90 96 SW 8 12 9265 6478 4378 Blue 23
12 Noon Mon 94 101 SW 10 16 14130 14130 12030 White 28
1 PM Mon 96 103 WSW 11 17 14538 14538 12438 White 30
2 PM Mon 97 103 WSW 13 20 14538 14538 12438 White 30
3 PM Mon 98 102 WSW 14 23 14334 14334 12234 White 29
4 PM Mon 97 99 WSW 16 24 13722 9118 7018 White 26
5 PM Mon 96 97 WSW 17 26 9942 7628 5528 Blue 24
6 PM Mon 92 92 WSW 17 26 5218 3866 1766 Blue 19
7 PM Mon 87 87 WSW 16 24 3621 3409 1309 Blue 14
8 PM Mon 82 82 SW 13 20 3272 2999 899 Blue 9
9 PM Mon 79 79 SSW 12 19 3001 2758 658 Blue 6
10 PM Mon 77 77 SSW 10 16 2822 2632 532 Blue 4
11 PM Mon 75 75 S 8 12 2696 2467 367 Blue 2
12 Midnight Tue 74 74 S 5 9 2633 2467 367 Blue 1
1 AM Tue 72 72 SSE 4 6 0 2467 367 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 70 70 SSE 3 5 0 2467 367 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 67 67 SSE 3 5 0 2467 367 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 66 66 SSE 3 5 0 2467 367 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 65 65 SSE 3 5 0 2467 367 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 65 65 S 3 5 0 2467 367 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 67 67 S 3 5 0 2467 367 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 71 72 SSW 4 6 0 2467 367 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 76 78 SW 4 6 2885 2695 595 Blue 5
10 AM Tue 81 85 WSW 4 6 3481 3270 1170 Blue 12
11 AM Tue 86 92 WSW 5 9 5218 3866 1766 Blue 19
12 Noon Tue 90 97 W 6 10 9942 7628 5528 Blue 24
1 PM Tue 92 99 W 6 10 13722 9118 7018 White 26
2 PM Tue 94 100 W 8 12 13926 9787 7687 White 27
3 PM Tue 94 98 WNW 9 13 13516 8410 6310 White 25
4 PM Tue 94 96 WNW 9 13 9265 6478 4378 Blue 23
5 PM Tue 92 93 WNW 10 16 6639 4065 1965 Blue 20
6 PM Tue 89 89 WNW 9 13 3874 3549 1449 Blue 16
7 PM Tue 84 84 W 9 13 3412 3200 1100 Blue 11
8 PM Tue 80 80 WSW 8 12 3132 2821 721 Blue 7
9 PM Tue 77 77 SW 6 10 2822 2632 532 Blue 4
10 PM Tue 75 75 SSW 6 10 2696 2467 367 Blue 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com