Detailed Predictions for: El Tiro Gliderport
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.427, -111.3895, 2100
LZ Altitude (f): 2100
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

2 OCT 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 76 76 S 5 8 2062 2100 0 White 0
1 AM Sun 74 74 S 4 7 2062 2100 0 White 0
2 AM Sun 72 72 SSE 4 6 2062 2100 0 White 0
3 AM Sun 71 71 E 1 2 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 69 69 NNE 2 4 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 68 68 NNE 3 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 68 68 NE 2 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 66 66 NNE 2 4 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 68 68 NNE 0 1 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 75 77 SSW 0 0 2062 2100 0 White 0
10 AM Sun 82 86 SE 1 1 2551 2551 451 White 14
11 AM Sun 90 95 SE 0 1 4529 4529 2429 White 23
12 Noon Sun 93 99 S 0 0 5406 5406 3306 White 27
1 PM Sun 94 100 SSW 1 1 5621 5621 3521 White 28
2 PM Sun 96 101 SSW 2 3 5836 5836 3736 White 29
3 PM Sun 95 97 SSW 3 4 4976 4976 2876 White 25
4 PM Sun 96 98 SW 4 5 5191 5191 3091 White 26
5 PM Sun 95 95 SW 5 6 4529 4529 2429 White 23
6 PM Sun 91 91 WSW 5 6 3648 3648 1548 White 19
7 PM Sun 90 90 W 4 6 3429 3429 1329 White 18
8 PM Sun 87 87 NW 2 5 2770 2770 670 White 15
9 PM Sun 77 77 NNW 3 5 2062 2100 0 White 0
10 PM Sun 81 81 NW 2 5 2062 2100 0 White 0
11 PM Sun 79 79 W 2 4 2062 2100 0 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 72 72 W 3 6 2062 2100 0 White 0
1 AM Mon 80 80 W 3 6 2062 2100 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 79 79 WSW 2 4 2062 2100 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 67 67 SSW 2 4 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 76 76 WSW 1 3 2062 2100 0 White 0
5 AM Mon 75 75 N 0 1 2062 2100 0 White 0
6 AM Mon 63 63 NE 1 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 74 74 NE 2 4 2062 2100 0 White 0
8 AM Mon 76 76 ENE 2 4 2062 2100 0 White 0
9 AM Mon 72 74 E 2 2 2062 2100 0 White 0
10 AM Mon 83 86 ESE 2 2 2551 2551 451 White 14
11 AM Mon 89 94 ESE 2 2 4304 4304 2204 White 22
12 Noon Mon 92 98 SE 2 2 5191 5191 3091 White 26
1 PM Mon 91 96 SE 1 1 4754 4754 2654 White 24
2 PM Mon 93 98 SW 0 0 5191 5191 3091 White 26
3 PM Mon 95 98 WNW 2 2 5191 5191 3091 White 26
4 PM Mon 93 94 WNW 3 3 4304 4304 2204 White 22
5 PM Mon 93 93 W 3 3 4084 4084 1984 White 21
6 PM Mon 91 91 WNW 4 4 3648 3648 1548 White 19
7 PM Mon 88 88 NW 5 8 2990 2990 890 White 16
8 PM Mon 85 85 NNW 7 13 2332 2332 232 White 0
9 PM Mon 84 84 NNW 8 15 2118 2118 18 White 0
10 PM Mon 82 82 NNE 8 17 2062 2100 0 White 0
11 PM Mon 81 81 ENE 13 23 2062 2100 0 White 0
12 Midnight Tue 75 75 E 10 20 2062 2100 0 White 0
1 AM Tue 78 78 E 6 12 2062 2100 0 White 0
2 AM Tue 77 77 ESE 3 7 2062 2100 0 White 0
3 AM Tue 70 70 SSE 2 4 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 75 75 ENE 0 0 2062 2100 0 White 0
5 AM Tue 74 74 N 1 3 2062 2100 0 White 0
6 AM Tue 70 70 N 2 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 73 73 NE 2 5 2062 2100 0 White 0
8 AM Tue 75 75 E 3 5 2062 2100 0 White 0
9 AM Tue 73 75 SSE 1 2 2062 2100 0 White 0
10 AM Tue 82 85 SSW 2 2 2332 2332 232 White 0
11 AM Tue 88 93 SSW 2 2 4084 4084 1984 White 21
12 Noon Tue 94 100 SW 2 3 5621 5621 3521 White 28
1 PM Tue 91 96 W 4 5 4754 4754 2654 White 24
2 PM Tue 93 97 WNW 7 8 4976 4976 2876 White 25
3 PM Tue 96 99 NW 10 12 5406 5406 3306 White 27
4 PM Tue 93 94 NW 14 16 4304 4304 2204 White 22
5 PM Tue 92 92 NW 11 12 3866 3866 1766 White 20
6 PM Tue 92 92 W 9 10 3866 3866 1766 White 20
7 PM Tue 79 79 SW 19 25 2062 2100 0 White 0
8 PM Tue 74 74 S 12 18 2062 2100 0 White 0
9 PM Tue 82 82 SSE 12 16 2062 2100 0 White 0
10 PM Tue 73 73 SSE 11 16 2062 2100 0 White 0
11 PM Tue 74 74 SSE 10 15 2062 2100 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com