Detailed Predictions for: El Tiro Gliderport
Launch Altitude (f): 2100
LZ Altitude (f): 2100
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

26 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sun 55 55 S 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 54 55 S 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 59 61 S 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 63 67 S 13 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 68 74 S 15 2982 2623 523 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 72 80 S 17 7652 4036 1936 Blue 12
12 Noon Sun 75 84 S 20 8646 8119 6019 Blue 16
1 PM Sun 76 85 SW 18 8915 8286 6186 Blue 17
2 PM Sun 80 88 SW 18 9695 8876 6776 Blue 20
3 PM Sun 81 87 SW 18 9500 8583 6483 Blue 19
4 PM Sun 82 86 SW 18 9120 8368 6268 Blue 18
5 PM Sun 82 84 SW 18 8646 8119 6019 Blue 16
6 PM Sun 82 82 SW 18 8303 6699 4599 Blue 14
7 PM Sun 79 79 SW 18 6976 3782 1682 Blue 11
8 PM Sun 76 76 SW 16 3796 2712 612 Blue 8
9 PM Sun 72 72 SW 14 2668 2535 435 Blue 4
10 PM Sun 69 69 SW 12 2535 2470 370 Blue 1
11 PM Sun 66 66 SW 10 0 2100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 64 64 SW 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 62 62 SW 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 61 61 S 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 59 59 S 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 56 56 S 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 54 54 SW 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 53 53 SW 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 52 52 SW 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 56 57 W 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 60 62 W 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 65 67 W 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 67 71 W 10 2624 2491 391 Blue 3
12 Noon Mon 70 75 W 12 3540 2667 567 Blue 7
1 PM Mon 71 78 W 13 4509 3528 1428 Blue 10
2 PM Mon 75 82 W 13 8303 6699 4599 Blue 14
3 PM Mon 75 80 W 14 7652 4036 1936 Blue 12
4 PM Mon 76 79 W 15 6976 3782 1682 Blue 11
5 PM Mon 77 78 W 15 4509 3528 1428 Blue 10
6 PM Mon 76 76 W 16 3796 2712 612 Blue 8
7 PM Mon 74 74 W 14 2982 2623 523 Blue 6
8 PM Mon 71 71 NW 10 2624 2491 391 Blue 3
9 PM Mon 67 67 NW 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 64 64 NW 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 62 62 NW 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 60 60 NW 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 58 58 N 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 56 56 NE 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 55 55 E 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 52 52 E 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 50 50 E 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 49 49 E 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 48 49 E 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 54 56 E 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 59 63 E 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 65 71 NE 3 2624 2491 391 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 69 77 NW 3 4052 2954 854 Blue 9
12 Noon Tue 73 82 W 5 8303 6699 4599 Blue 14
1 PM Tue 75 83 W 5 8385 7546 5446 Blue 15
2 PM Tue 79 86 W 6 9120 8368 6268 Blue 18
3 PM Tue 80 85 W 7 8915 8286 6186 Blue 17
4 PM Tue 81 84 NW 8 8646 8119 6019 Blue 16
5 PM Tue 82 83 NW 8 8385 7546 5446 Blue 15
6 PM Tue 81 81 NW 8 8220 4288 2188 Blue 13
7 PM Tue 79 79 NW 8 6976 3782 1682 Blue 11
8 PM Tue 76 76 NW 8 3796 2712 612 Blue 8
9 PM Tue 72 72 NW 7 2668 2535 435 Blue 4
10 PM Tue 69 69 NW 7 2535 2470 370 Blue 1
11 PM Tue 67 67 NW 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 65 65 NW 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 63 63 W 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 62 62 SW 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 60 60 SW 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 57 57 SW 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 56 56 SW 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 54 54 SW 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 54 55 SW 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 60 62 SW 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 64 68 SW 5 2491 2470 370 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 71 77 W 5 4052 2954 854 Blue 9
11 AM Wed 75 83 W 5 8385 7546 5446 Blue 15
12 Noon Wed 79 88 W 5 9695 8876 6776 Blue 20
1 PM Wed 80 89 W 5 9866 9046 6946 Blue 21
2 PM Wed 85 93 W 5 13285 12090 9990 Blue 25
3 PM Wed 86 92 W 5 12932 9823 7723 Blue 24
4 PM Wed 87 91 W 5 12575 9653 7553 Blue 23
5 PM Wed 88 90 W 6 12213 9409 7309 Blue 22
6 PM Wed 87 87 W 6 9500 8583 6483 Blue 19
7 PM Wed 85 85 W 6 8915 8286 6186 Blue 17
8 PM Wed 82 82 W 6 8303 6699 4599 Blue 14
9 PM Wed 77 77 W 6 4052 2954 854 Blue 9
10 PM Wed 74 74 W 5 2982 2623 523 Blue 6
11 PM Wed 71 71 W 5 2624 2491 391 Blue 3
12 Midnight Thu 69 69 W 5 2535 2470 370 Blue 1
1 AM Thu 67 67 W 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 66 66 SW 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 64 64 SW 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 61 61 S 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 59 59 S 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 57 57 S 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 57 58 S 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 63 65 S 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 68 72 SW 3 2668 2535 435 Blue 4
10 AM Thu 74 81 SW 3 8220 4288 2188 Blue 13
11 AM Thu 79 87 SW 3 9500 8583 6483 Blue 19
12 Noon Thu 82 91 W 3 12575 9653 7553 Blue 23
1 PM Thu 84 93 W 5 13285 12090 9990 Blue 25
2 PM Thu 89 97 W 5 16689 13789 11689 Blue 29
3 PM Thu 90 96 W 6 16284 13153 11053 Blue 28
4 PM Thu 91 95 W 7 15336 12803 10703 Blue 27
5 PM Thu 92 94 W 7 14332 12449 10349 Blue 26
6 PM Thu 91 91 W 8 12575 9653 7553 Blue 23
7 PM Thu 88 88 W 8 9695 8876 6776 Blue 20
8 PM Thu 85 85 W 8 8915 8286 6186 Blue 17
9 PM Thu 81 81 W 8 8220 4288 2188 Blue 13
10 PM Thu 77 77 W 7 4052 2954 854 Blue 9
11 PM Thu 74 74 SW 7 2982 2623 523 Blue 6
12 Midnight Fri 72 72 SW 7 2668 2535 435 Blue 4
1 AM Fri 70 70 SW 7 2580 2470 370 Blue 2
2 AM Fri 68 68 SW 6 2491 2470 370 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 66 66 S 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 63 63 S 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 61 61 SE 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 60 60 SE 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 59 60 SE 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 65 67 S 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 70 74 S 5 2982 2623 523 Blue 6
10 AM Fri 76 82 S 5 8303 6699 4599 Blue 14
11 AM Fri 80 88 SW 5 9695 8876 6776 Blue 20
12 Noon Fri 83 92 SW 5 12932 9823 7723 Blue 24
1 PM Fri 85 94 SW 6 14332 12449 10349 Blue 26
2 PM Fri 90 98 SW 6 17015 15129 13029 Blue 30
3 PM Fri 91 97 SW 7 16689 13789 11689 Blue 29
4 PM Fri 92 95 SW 8 15336 12803 10703 Blue 27
5 PM Fri 93 95 SW 8 15336 12803 10703 Blue 27
6 PM Fri 92 92 W 9 12932 9823 7723 Blue 24
7 PM Fri 89 89 W 8 9866 9046 6946 Blue 21
8 PM Fri 86 86 SW 8 9120 8368 6268 Blue 18
9 PM Fri 82 82 SW 8 8303 6699 4599 Blue 14
10 PM Fri 78 78 SW 7 4509 3528 1428 Blue 10
11 PM Fri 75 75 SW 7 3540 2667 567 Blue 7
12 Midnight Sat 73 73 SW 6 2713 2579 479 Blue 5
1 AM Sat 71 71 SW 6 2624 2491 391 Blue 3
2 AM Sat 69 69 SW 6 2535 2470 370 Blue 1
3 AM Sat 67 67 S 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 64 64 S 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 62 62 SE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com