Detailed Predictions for: El Tiro Gliderport
Launch Altitude (f): 2100
LZ Altitude (f): 2100
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

27 MAY 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sun 55 55 S 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 55 56 S 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 62 64 SE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 70 74 SE 6 3469 3137 1037 Blue 8
10 AM Sun 77 83 S 6 6780 5477 3377 Blue 17
11 AM Sun 81 89 SW 5 8612 7589 5489 Blue 23
12 Noon Sun 85 93 SW 5 9712 8845 6745 Blue 27
1 PM Sun 88 96 W 6 10316 9662 7562 Blue 30
2 PM Sun 91 98 W 7 10741 10055 7955 Blue 32
3 PM Sun 93 98 W 8 10741 10055 7955 Blue 32
4 PM Sun 93 96 W 9 10316 9662 7562 Blue 30
5 PM Sun 93 94 W 10 9910 9139 7039 Blue 28
6 PM Sun 92 92 W 10 9503 8548 6448 Blue 26
7 PM Sun 90 90 W 10 8911 7919 5819 Blue 24
8 PM Sun 87 87 W 10 7983 6986 4886 Blue 21
9 PM Sun 83 83 W 9 6780 5477 3377 Blue 17
10 PM Sun 80 80 W 9 5538 4692 2592 Blue 14
11 PM Sun 77 77 W 9 4719 3464 1364 Blue 11
12 Midnight Mon 73 73 W 8 3359 3028 928 Blue 7
1 AM Mon 70 70 SW 8 3031 2631 531 Blue 4
2 AM Mon 66 66 S 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 64 64 S 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 62 62 S 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 60 60 S 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 58 58 S 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 58 59 S 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 65 67 S 7 2635 2470 370 Blue 1
9 AM Mon 73 77 S 7 4719 3464 1364 Blue 11
10 AM Mon 80 86 S 6 7649 6742 4642 Blue 20
11 AM Mon 84 92 W 5 9503 8548 6448 Blue 26
12 Noon Mon 88 96 W 5 10316 9662 7562 Blue 30
1 PM Mon 92 100 W 6 11757 10470 8370 Blue 34
2 PM Mon 94 101 W 7 12318 10680 8580 Blue 35
3 PM Mon 96 101 W 8 12318 10680 8580 Blue 35
4 PM Mon 96 99 W 9 11173 10258 8158 Blue 33
5 PM Mon 96 97 NW 9 10529 9859 7759 Blue 31
6 PM Mon 95 95 NW 10 10107 9432 7332 Blue 29
7 PM Mon 93 93 NW 10 9712 8845 6745 Blue 27
8 PM Mon 90 90 NW 9 8911 7919 5819 Blue 24
9 PM Mon 86 86 NW 9 7649 6742 4642 Blue 20
10 PM Mon 83 83 NW 8 6780 5477 3377 Blue 17
11 PM Mon 80 80 W 7 5538 4692 2592 Blue 14
12 Midnight Tue 77 77 W 6 4719 3464 1364 Blue 11
1 AM Tue 73 73 SW 6 3359 3028 928 Blue 7
2 AM Tue 69 69 S 6 2922 2470 370 Blue 3
3 AM Tue 67 67 S 6 2635 2470 370 Blue 1
4 AM Tue 65 65 S 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 63 63 S 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 61 61 S 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 62 62 S 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 69 71 SW 6 3140 2809 709 Blue 5
9 AM Tue 77 81 SW 6 6080 4992 2892 Blue 15
10 AM Tue 84 90 W 6 8911 7919 5819 Blue 24
11 AM Tue 88 95 W 6 10107 9432 7332 Blue 29
12 Noon Tue 92 100 W 6 11757 10470 8370 Blue 34
1 PM Tue 96 103 W 6 13381 11574 9474 Blue 37
2 PM Tue 98 104 W 7 13888 12131 10031 Blue 38
3 PM Tue 100 105 W 8 14380 12668 10568 Blue 39
4 PM Tue 100 103 W 8 13381 11574 9474 Blue 37
5 PM Tue 101 102 W 9 12859 10995 8895 Blue 36
6 PM Tue 99 99 W 9 11173 10258 8158 Blue 33
7 PM Tue 97 97 W 10 10529 9859 7759 Blue 31
8 PM Tue 94 94 W 10 9910 9139 7039 Blue 28
9 PM Tue 90 90 W 10 8911 7919 5819 Blue 24
10 PM Tue 87 87 SW 10 7983 6986 4886 Blue 21
11 PM Tue 84 84 SW 9 7025 6012 3912 Blue 18
12 Midnight Wed 80 80 SW 9 5538 4692 2592 Blue 14
1 AM Wed 77 77 SW 9 4719 3464 1364 Blue 11
2 AM Wed 72 72 S 9 3250 2918 818 Blue 6
3 AM Wed 70 70 S 8 3031 2631 531 Blue 4
4 AM Wed 68 68 S 8 2812 2470 370 Blue 2
5 AM Wed 66 66 S 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 64 64 S 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 64 64 S 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 71 73 S 8 3359 3028 928 Blue 7
9 AM Wed 78 82 S 8 6533 5170 3070 Blue 16
10 AM Wed 84 90 S 8 8911 7919 5819 Blue 24
11 AM Wed 89 97 S 8 10529 9859 7759 Blue 31
12 Noon Wed 93 102 S 9 12859 10995 8895 Blue 36
1 PM Wed 96 104 S 10 13888 12131 10031 Blue 38
2 PM Wed 98 105 S 12 14380 12668 10568 Blue 39
3 PM Wed 100 105 SW 13 14380 12668 10568 Blue 39
4 PM Wed 100 103 SW 14 13381 11574 9474 Blue 37
5 PM Wed 100 101 SW 15 12318 10680 8580 Blue 35
6 PM Wed 99 99 SW 15 11173 10258 8158 Blue 33
7 PM Wed 96 96 SW 15 10316 9662 7562 Blue 30
8 PM Wed 93 93 SW 14 9712 8845 6745 Blue 27
9 PM Wed 89 89 SW 13 8612 7589 5489 Blue 23
10 PM Wed 86 86 SW 12 7649 6742 4642 Blue 20
11 PM Wed 82 82 SW 10 6533 5170 3070 Blue 16
12 Midnight Thu 79 79 SW 9 5188 4136 2036 Blue 13
1 AM Thu 75 75 S 9 3578 3246 1146 Blue 9
2 AM Thu 70 70 S 9 3031 2631 531 Blue 4
3 AM Thu 68 68 S 9 2812 2470 370 Blue 2
4 AM Thu 66 66 S 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 64 64 S 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 62 62 SE 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 62 62 SE 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 69 71 S 10 3140 2809 709 Blue 5
9 AM Thu 76 80 S 10 5538 4692 2592 Blue 14
10 AM Thu 83 89 S 10 8612 7589 5489 Blue 23
11 AM Thu 87 94 S 12 9910 9139 7039 Blue 28
12 Noon Thu 91 99 S 12 11173 10258 8158 Blue 33
1 PM Thu 94 101 S 13 12318 10680 8580 Blue 35
2 PM Thu 97 103 S 15 13381 11574 9474 Blue 37
3 PM Thu 98 103 SW 16 13381 11574 9474 Blue 37
4 PM Thu 98 101 SW 17 12318 10680 8580 Blue 35
5 PM Thu 98 99 SW 18 11173 10258 8158 Blue 33
6 PM Thu 97 97 SW 18 10529 9859 7759 Blue 31
7 PM Thu 95 95 SW 17 10107 9432 7332 Blue 29
8 PM Thu 92 92 SW 16 9503 8548 6448 Blue 26
9 PM Thu 87 87 SW 14 7983 6986 4886 Blue 21
10 PM Thu 84 84 SW 12 7025 6012 3912 Blue 18
11 PM Thu 81 81 SW 10 6080 4992 2892 Blue 15
12 Midnight Fri 77 77 SW 8 4719 3464 1364 Blue 11
1 AM Fri 74 74 SW 8 3469 3137 1037 Blue 8
2 AM Fri 69 69 S 8 2922 2470 370 Blue 3
3 AM Fri 67 67 S 8 2635 2470 370 Blue 1
4 AM Fri 64 64 S 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 63 63 S 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 60 60 S 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 61 61 S 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 67 69 S 9 2922 2470 370 Blue 3
9 AM Fri 75 79 S 9 5188 4136 2036 Blue 13
10 AM Fri 81 87 SW 8 7983 6986 4886 Blue 21
11 AM Fri 86 94 SW 8 9910 9139 7039 Blue 28
12 Noon Fri 90 98 SW 9 10741 10055 7955 Blue 32
1 PM Fri 93 101 SW 9 12318 10680 8580 Blue 35
2 PM Fri 95 102 SW 10 12859 10995 8895 Blue 36
3 PM Fri 97 102 W 10 12859 10995 8895 Blue 36
4 PM Fri 97 100 W 12 11757 10470 8370 Blue 34
5 PM Fri 97 98 W 12 10741 10055 7955 Blue 32
6 PM Fri 96 96 W 12 10316 9662 7562 Blue 30
7 PM Fri 94 94 W 12 9910 9139 7039 Blue 28
8 PM Fri 90 90 W 10 8911 7919 5819 Blue 24
9 PM Fri 86 86 W 9 7649 6742 4642 Blue 20
10 PM Fri 83 83 W 8 6780 5477 3377 Blue 17
11 PM Fri 80 80 NW 7 5538 4692 2592 Blue 14
12 Midnight Sat 76 76 NW 7 4192 3355 1255 Blue 10
1 AM Sat 73 73 NW 6 3359 3028 928 Blue 7
2 AM Sat 68 68 N 6 2812 2470 370 Blue 2
3 AM Sat 66 66 N 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 64 64 NE 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 62 62 NE 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com