Detailed Predictions for: El Tiro Gliderport
Launch Altitude (f): 2100
LZ Altitude (f): 2100
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 34 34 E 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 34 34 E 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 33 33 E 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 37 37 E 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 44 45 E 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 50 52 E 8 4223 2470 370 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 55 58 E 9 7401 6886 4786 Blue 8
12 Noon Tue 59 63 E 9 7782 7480 5380 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 61 64 E 9 8119 7524 5424 Blue 14
2 PM Tue 62 65 E 9 8453 7619 5519 Blue 15
3 PM Tue 63 64 E 9 8119 7524 5424 Blue 14
4 PM Tue 61 61 E 10 7532 7393 5293 Blue 11
5 PM Tue 59 59 E 10 7445 7167 5067 Blue 9
6 PM Tue 52 52 E 10 4223 2470 370 Blue 2
7 PM Tue 49 49 E 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 47 47 E 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 43 43 E 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 40 40 E 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 39 39 E 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 39 39 E 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 38 38 E 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 37 37 E 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 36 36 E 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 35 35 E 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 35 35 E 10 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 34 34 E 10 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 34 34 E 10 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 38 38 E 10 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 46 47 E 12 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 54 55 E 13 6991 4142 2042 Blue 5
11 AM Wed 59 61 E 14 7532 7393 5293 Blue 11
12 Noon Wed 64 66 E 13 8627 7754 5654 Blue 16
1 PM Wed 66 68 E 13 8704 8381 6281 Blue 18
2 PM Wed 67 68 E 12 8704 8381 6281 Blue 18
3 PM Wed 68 69 E 10 8743 8618 6518 Blue 19
4 PM Wed 66 66 E 9 8627 7754 5654 Blue 16
5 PM Wed 64 64 E 9 8119 7524 5424 Blue 14
6 PM Wed 57 57 E 8 7358 6076 3976 Blue 7
7 PM Wed 53 53 E 8 5290 2470 370 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 51 51 E 8 2958 2470 370 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 47 47 E 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 44 44 E 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 42 42 E 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 42 42 E 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 41 41 E 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 41 41 E 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 39 39 E 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 38 38 E 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 38 38 E 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 37 37 E 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 37 37 E 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 41 41 E 10 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 49 50 E 10 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 57 59 E 10 7445 7167 5067 Blue 9
11 AM Thu 62 65 E 10 8453 7619 5519 Blue 15
12 Noon Thu 67 70 E 9 8782 8657 6557 Blue 20
1 PM Thu 69 72 E 9 8860 8734 6634 Blue 22
2 PM Thu 71 74 E 8 8993 8812 6712 Blue 24
3 PM Thu 72 73 NE 7 8911 8773 6673 Blue 23
4 PM Thu 70 70 NE 7 8782 8657 6557 Blue 20
5 PM Thu 67 67 NE 6 8665 8051 5951 Blue 17
6 PM Thu 60 60 NE 6 7488 7350 5250 Blue 10
7 PM Thu 56 56 NE 6 7204 5189 3089 Blue 6
8 PM Thu 53 53 NE 6 5290 2470 370 Blue 3
9 PM Thu 49 49 E 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 46 46 E 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 44 44 E 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 44 44 E 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 43 43 E 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 42 42 E 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 40 40 E 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 40 40 E 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 40 40 E 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 39 39 E 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 38 38 E 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 43 43 SE 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 51 52 SE 6 4223 2470 370 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 58 60 SE 6 7488 7350 5250 Blue 10
11 AM Fri 64 66 SE 6 8627 7754 5654 Blue 16
12 Noon Fri 68 71 SE 6 8821 8695 6595 Blue 21
1 PM Fri 71 74 S 6 8993 8812 6712 Blue 24
2 PM Fri 72 74 SW 6 8993 8812 6712 Blue 24
3 PM Fri 74 75 SW 6 9076 8851 6751 Blue 25
4 PM Fri 71 71 W 6 8821 8695 6595 Blue 21
5 PM Fri 69 69 W 6 8743 8618 6518 Blue 19
6 PM Fri 62 62 W 6 7645 7437 5337 Blue 12
7 PM Fri 58 58 SW 6 7401 6886 4786 Blue 8
8 PM Fri 56 56 SW 6 7204 5189 3089 Blue 6
9 PM Fri 51 51 S 6 2958 2470 370 Blue 1
10 PM Fri 48 48 SE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 46 46 SE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 46 46 SE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 45 45 SE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 45 45 SE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 43 43 SE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 42 42 SE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 42 42 SE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 41 41 SE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 41 41 SE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 45 45 SE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 53 53 SE 6 5290 2470 370 Blue 3
10 AM Sat 60 61 SE 6 7532 7393 5293 Blue 11
11 AM Sat 65 67 SE 6 8665 8051 5951 Blue 17
12 Noon Sat 69 72 E 6 8860 8734 6634 Blue 22
1 PM Sat 72 74 E 7 8993 8812 6712 Blue 24
2 PM Sat 73 75 NE 7 9076 8851 6751 Blue 25
3 PM Sat 74 75 N 7 9076 8851 6751 Blue 25
4 PM Sat 72 72 NW 7 8860 8734 6634 Blue 22
5 PM Sat 69 69 NW 7 8743 8618 6518 Blue 19
6 PM Sat 63 63 NW 7 7782 7480 5380 Blue 13
7 PM Sat 59 59 N 7 7445 7167 5067 Blue 9
8 PM Sat 57 57 NE 6 7358 6076 3976 Blue 7
9 PM Sat 53 53 E 6 5290 2470 370 Blue 3
10 PM Sat 50 50 E 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 48 48 SE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 48 48 SE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 47 47 SE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 46 46 E 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 45 45 E 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 44 44 E 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 44 44 E 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 43 43 E 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 43 43 E 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 47 47 E 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 54 54 E 7 6193 2929 829 Blue 4
10 AM Sun 61 62 E 7 7645 7437 5337 Blue 12
11 AM Sun 66 67 E 7 8665 8051 5951 Blue 17
12 Noon Sun 70 71 E 7 8821 8695 6595 Blue 21
1 PM Sun 72 73 E 7 8911 8773 6673 Blue 23
2 PM Sun 73 74 NE 7 8993 8812 6712 Blue 24
3 PM Sun 74 74 NE 8 8993 8812 6712 Blue 24
4 PM Sun 72 72 N 8 8860 8734 6634 Blue 22
5 PM Sun 70 70 N 8 8782 8657 6557 Blue 20
6 PM Sun 64 64 N 8 8119 7524 5424 Blue 14
7 PM Sun 60 60 NE 7 7488 7350 5250 Blue 10
8 PM Sun 58 58 NE 7 7401 6886 4786 Blue 8
9 PM Sun 54 54 NE 7 6193 2929 829 Blue 4
10 PM Sun 51 51 E 7 2958 2470 370 Blue 1
11 PM Sun 49 49 E 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 49 49 E 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 48 48 E 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 48 48 E 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 46 46 E 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 46 46 E 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com