Detailed Predictions for: El Tiro Gliderport
Launch Altitude (f): 2100
LZ Altitude (f): 2100
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

1 DEC 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 38 38 S 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 34 34 SE 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 35 35 S 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 37 37 S 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 45 45 S 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 52 53 SE 3 2753 2647 547 Blue 8
11 AM Tue 60 62 E 2 3309 3016 916 Blue 17
12 Noon Tue 64 67 NW 2 4208 3796 1696 Blue 22
1 PM Tue 67 70 NW 5 5422 4185 2085 Blue 25
2 PM Tue 68 70 NW 6 5422 4185 2085 Blue 25
3 PM Tue 69 70 NW 8 5422 4185 2085 Blue 25
4 PM Tue 68 68 NW 8 4526 3897 1797 Blue 23
5 PM Tue 64 64 NW 6 3802 3209 1109 Blue 19
6 PM Tue 57 57 NW 6 2892 2787 687 Blue 12
7 PM Tue 54 54 N 6 2788 2683 583 Blue 9
8 PM Tue 51 51 N 2 2684 2571 471 Blue 6
9 PM Tue 48 48 E 2 2572 2470 370 Blue 3
10 PM Tue 47 47 N 2 2534 2470 370 Blue 2
11 PM Tue 45 45 N 2 0 2100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 42 42 NW 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 41 41 NW 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 39 39 SW 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 39 39 S 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 37 37 S 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 36 36 S 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 34 34 S 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 33 33 S 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 36 36 S 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 44 44 S 3 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 53 54 SE 3 2788 2683 583 Blue 9
11 AM Wed 58 60 NE 2 3116 2891 791 Blue 15
12 Noon Wed 62 65 NE 2 3903 3305 1205 Blue 20
1 PM Wed 66 69 N 5 4841 3998 1898 Blue 24
2 PM Wed 67 69 N 6 4841 3998 1898 Blue 24
3 PM Wed 67 68 N 7 4526 3897 1797 Blue 23
4 PM Wed 65 65 NW 7 3903 3305 1205 Blue 20
5 PM Wed 62 62 NW 7 3309 3016 916 Blue 17
6 PM Wed 58 58 NW 7 2927 2822 722 Blue 13
7 PM Wed 53 53 N 7 2753 2647 547 Blue 8
8 PM Wed 49 49 N 7 2610 2495 395 Blue 4
9 PM Wed 46 46 N 8 2496 2470 370 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 44 44 NE 10 0 2100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 42 42 E 12 0 2100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 39 39 E 10 0 2100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 37 37 E 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 36 36 E 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 35 35 E 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 34 34 E 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 34 34 E 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 33 33 E 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 33 33 E 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 35 35 E 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 40 40 E 10 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 48 49 E 12 2610 2495 395 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 54 56 E 13 2858 2752 652 Blue 11
12 Noon Thu 58 61 E 13 3212 2926 826 Blue 16
1 PM Thu 60 62 E 12 3309 3016 916 Blue 17
2 PM Thu 61 63 E 12 3581 3112 1012 Blue 18
3 PM Thu 61 62 E 12 3309 3016 916 Blue 17
4 PM Thu 60 60 E 10 3116 2891 791 Blue 15
5 PM Thu 58 58 E 10 2927 2822 722 Blue 13
6 PM Thu 54 54 E 9 2788 2683 583 Blue 9
7 PM Thu 50 50 E 9 2648 2533 433 Blue 5
8 PM Thu 46 46 E 8 2496 2470 370 Blue 1
9 PM Thu 44 44 E 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 42 42 E 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 41 41 E 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 39 39 E 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 38 38 E 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 36 36 E 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 35 35 E 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 35 35 E 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 34 34 E 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 32 32 E 9 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 32 32 E 8 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 34 34 E 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 39 39 E 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 46 47 E 7 2534 2470 370 Blue 2
11 AM Fri 52 54 E 7 2788 2683 583 Blue 9
12 Noon Fri 57 59 E 7 3019 2857 757 Blue 14
1 PM Fri 60 62 E 8 3309 3016 916 Blue 17
2 PM Fri 60 62 E 8 3309 3016 916 Blue 17
3 PM Fri 61 62 E 8 3309 3016 916 Blue 17
4 PM Fri 60 60 NE 7 3116 2891 791 Blue 15
5 PM Fri 57 57 NE 7 2892 2787 687 Blue 12
6 PM Fri 54 54 NE 7 2788 2683 583 Blue 9
7 PM Fri 50 50 E 6 2648 2533 433 Blue 5
8 PM Fri 46 46 E 6 2496 2470 370 Blue 1
9 PM Fri 44 44 E 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 42 42 E 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 41 41 E 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 39 39 E 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 37 37 E 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 36 36 E 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 35 35 E 5 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 35 35 SE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 34 34 SE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 33 33 SE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 32 32 E 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 35 35 E 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 41 41 E 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 49 50 E 7 2648 2533 433 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 57 59 E 7 3019 2857 757 Blue 14
12 Noon Sat 62 64 E 7 3802 3209 1109 Blue 19
1 PM Sat 65 67 E 7 4208 3796 1696 Blue 22
2 PM Sat 66 68 E 7 4526 3897 1797 Blue 23
3 PM Sat 66 67 E 7 4208 3796 1696 Blue 22
4 PM Sat 64 64 NE 6 3802 3209 1109 Blue 19
5 PM Sat 62 62 NE 6 3309 3016 916 Blue 17
6 PM Sat 58 58 NE 6 2927 2822 722 Blue 13
7 PM Sat 53 53 E 6 2753 2647 547 Blue 8
8 PM Sat 50 50 E 6 2648 2533 433 Blue 5
9 PM Sat 47 47 E 6 2534 2470 370 Blue 2
10 PM Sat 45 45 E 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 44 44 E 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 42 42 E 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 41 41 SE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 39 39 SE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 38 38 SE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 38 38 SE 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 37 37 SE 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 36 36 SE 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 35 35 SE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 38 38 SE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 43 43 SE 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 51 52 E 7 2718 2609 509 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 58 60 E 7 3116 2891 791 Blue 15
12 Noon Sun 64 66 E 7 4004 3539 1439 Blue 21
1 PM Sun 67 69 E 7 4841 3998 1898 Blue 24
2 PM Sun 68 70 E 7 5422 4185 2085 Blue 25
3 PM Sun 68 69 E 7 4841 3998 1898 Blue 24
4 PM Sun 66 66 E 6 4004 3539 1439 Blue 21
5 PM Sun 63 63 NE 6 3581 3112 1012 Blue 18
6 PM Sun 59 59 E 6 3019 2857 757 Blue 14
7 PM Sun 55 55 E 6 2823 2718 618 Blue 10
8 PM Sun 51 51 E 6 2684 2571 471 Blue 6
9 PM Sun 49 49 E 6 2610 2495 395 Blue 4
10 PM Sun 47 47 E 6 2534 2470 370 Blue 2
11 PM Sun 45 45 E 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 43 43 E 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 41 41 E 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 40 40 E 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 38 38 E 6 0 2100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 38 38 E 7 0 2100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com