Detailed Predictions for: Harquahala
Launch Altitude (f): 5680
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

27 MAY 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sun 61 61 NW 2 3612 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 59 59 N 2 3612 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 65 67 NE 2 5729 5680 0 Blue 4
9 AM Sun 66 70 NE 3 6895 5706 26 Blue 7
10 AM Sun 67 73 E 3 7843 6875 1195 Blue 10
11 AM Sun 69 77 S 5 9127 8146 2466 Blue 14
12 Noon Sun 71 80 S 5 9876 9081 3401 Blue 17
1 PM Sun 72 81 SW 6 10081 9385 3705 Blue 18
2 PM Sun 73 81 SW 7 10081 9385 3705 Blue 18
3 PM Sun 74 80 SW 8 9876 9081 3401 Blue 17
4 PM Sun 75 79 SW 9 9672 8775 3095 Blue 16
5 PM Sun 75 77 SW 9 9127 8146 2466 Blue 14
6 PM Sun 75 75 W 10 8507 7461 1781 Blue 12
7 PM Sun 74 74 W 10 8187 7126 1446 Blue 11
8 PM Sun 73 73 W 10 7843 6875 1195 Blue 10
9 PM Sun 70 70 W 10 6895 5706 26 Blue 7
10 PM Sun 70 70 W 8 6895 5706 26 Blue 7
11 PM Sun 69 69 W 7 6640 5680 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Mon 68 68 W 6 6290 5680 0 Blue 5
1 AM Mon 67 67 W 5 5729 5680 0 Blue 4
2 AM Mon 66 66 W 5 5243 5680 0 Blue 3
3 AM Mon 66 66 W 6 5243 5680 0 Blue 3
4 AM Mon 65 65 W 6 5058 5680 0 Blue 2
5 AM Mon 65 65 NW 6 5058 5680 0 Blue 2
6 AM Mon 65 65 NW 6 5058 5680 0 Blue 2
7 AM Mon 65 65 NW 5 5058 5680 0 Blue 2
8 AM Mon 70 72 W 2 7495 6622 942 Blue 9
9 AM Mon 73 77 W 2 9127 8146 2466 Blue 14
10 AM Mon 74 80 W 3 9876 9081 3401 Blue 17
11 AM Mon 75 83 W 5 10514 9841 4161 Blue 20
12 Noon Mon 78 87 W 6 12376 10689 5009 Blue 24
1 PM Mon 80 89 W 7 13484 11648 5968 Blue 26
2 PM Mon 81 89 W 9 13484 11648 5968 Blue 26
3 PM Mon 82 88 W 10 12940 11043 5363 Blue 25
4 PM Mon 82 86 W 10 11790 10471 4791 Blue 23
5 PM Mon 83 85 W 12 11178 10253 4573 Blue 22
6 PM Mon 83 83 W 12 10514 9841 4161 Blue 20
7 PM Mon 81 81 W 13 10081 9385 3705 Blue 18
8 PM Mon 79 79 W 13 9672 8775 3095 Blue 16
9 PM Mon 77 77 W 12 9127 8146 2466 Blue 14
10 PM Mon 75 75 W 10 8507 7461 1781 Blue 12
11 PM Mon 75 75 W 9 8507 7461 1781 Blue 12
12 Midnight Tue 74 74 W 8 8187 7126 1446 Blue 11
1 AM Tue 73 73 W 8 7843 6875 1195 Blue 10
2 AM Tue 72 72 W 7 7495 6622 942 Blue 9
3 AM Tue 71 71 W 7 7148 6257 577 Blue 8
4 AM Tue 70 70 W 7 6895 5706 26 Blue 7
5 AM Tue 69 69 NW 7 6640 5680 0 Blue 6
6 AM Tue 69 69 NW 7 6640 5680 0 Blue 6
7 AM Tue 71 71 N 7 7148 6257 577 Blue 8
8 AM Tue 74 76 N 6 8819 7805 2125 Blue 13
9 AM Tue 78 81 N 6 10081 9385 3705 Blue 18
10 AM Tue 80 85 NW 5 11178 10253 4573 Blue 22
11 AM Tue 81 88 W 5 12940 11043 5363 Blue 25
12 Noon Tue 83 90 SW 5 14011 12228 6548 Blue 27
1 PM Tue 84 92 SW 6 15016 13326 7646 Blue 29
2 PM Tue 85 92 SW 7 15016 13326 7646 Blue 29
3 PM Tue 86 91 SW 9 14521 12787 7107 Blue 28
4 PM Tue 86 89 SW 10 13484 11648 5968 Blue 26
5 PM Tue 87 88 SW 12 12940 11043 5363 Blue 25
6 PM Tue 86 86 SW 12 11790 10471 4791 Blue 23
7 PM Tue 85 85 SW 12 11178 10253 4573 Blue 22
8 PM Tue 83 83 SW 12 10514 9841 4161 Blue 20
9 PM Tue 81 81 SW 12 10081 9385 3705 Blue 18
10 PM Tue 80 80 SW 12 9876 9081 3401 Blue 17
11 PM Tue 79 79 SW 13 9672 8775 3095 Blue 16
12 Midnight Wed 78 78 SW 13 9434 8467 2787 Blue 15
1 AM Wed 77 77 SW 12 9127 8146 2466 Blue 14
2 AM Wed 75 75 SW 9 8507 7461 1781 Blue 12
3 AM Wed 74 74 SW 8 8187 7126 1446 Blue 11
4 AM Wed 73 73 SW 7 7843 6875 1195 Blue 10
5 AM Wed 72 72 S 7 7495 6622 942 Blue 9
6 AM Wed 72 72 S 7 7495 6622 942 Blue 9
7 AM Wed 73 73 S 7 7843 6875 1195 Blue 10
8 AM Wed 74 76 S 8 8819 7805 2125 Blue 13
9 AM Wed 76 80 S 9 9876 9081 3401 Blue 17
10 AM Wed 78 84 S 12 10734 10044 4364 Blue 21
11 AM Wed 80 88 S 13 12940 11043 5363 Blue 25
12 Noon Wed 82 91 S 14 14521 12787 7107 Blue 28
1 PM Wed 83 92 S 15 15016 13326 7646 Blue 29
2 PM Wed 84 92 S 16 15016 13326 7646 Blue 29
3 PM Wed 85 91 S 17 14521 12787 7107 Blue 28
4 PM Wed 86 90 S 17 14011 12228 6548 Blue 27
5 PM Wed 86 88 S 17 12940 11043 5363 Blue 25
6 PM Wed 85 85 S 18 11178 10253 4573 Blue 22
7 PM Wed 84 84 S 17 10734 10044 4364 Blue 21
8 PM Wed 81 81 S 17 10081 9385 3705 Blue 18
9 PM Wed 79 79 S 16 9672 8775 3095 Blue 16
10 PM Wed 78 78 S 15 9434 8467 2787 Blue 15
11 PM Wed 76 76 S 14 8819 7805 2125 Blue 13
12 Midnight Thu 75 75 S 13 8507 7461 1781 Blue 12
1 AM Thu 73 73 S 13 7843 6875 1195 Blue 10
2 AM Thu 72 72 S 12 7495 6622 942 Blue 9
3 AM Thu 71 71 S 12 7148 6257 577 Blue 8
4 AM Thu 70 70 S 12 6895 5706 26 Blue 7
5 AM Thu 69 69 S 12 6640 5680 0 Blue 6
6 AM Thu 69 69 S 12 6640 5680 0 Blue 6
7 AM Thu 69 69 S 13 6640 5680 0 Blue 6
8 AM Thu 70 72 S 13 7495 6622 942 Blue 9
9 AM Thu 72 75 S 14 8507 7461 1781 Blue 12
10 AM Thu 73 78 S 16 9434 8467 2787 Blue 15
11 AM Thu 75 81 S 17 10081 9385 3705 Blue 18
12 Noon Thu 77 84 S 17 10734 10044 4364 Blue 21
1 PM Thu 79 85 S 18 11178 10253 4573 Blue 22
2 PM Thu 80 86 S 18 11790 10471 4791 Blue 23
3 PM Thu 81 85 S 18 11178 10253 4573 Blue 22
4 PM Thu 82 85 S 18 11178 10253 4573 Blue 22
5 PM Thu 82 83 S 18 10514 9841 4161 Blue 20
6 PM Thu 81 81 S 18 10081 9385 3705 Blue 18
7 PM Thu 80 80 SW 17 9876 9081 3401 Blue 17
8 PM Thu 78 78 SW 17 9434 8467 2787 Blue 15
9 PM Thu 76 76 SW 16 8819 7805 2125 Blue 13
10 PM Thu 74 74 SW 15 8187 7126 1446 Blue 11
11 PM Thu 73 73 SW 14 7843 6875 1195 Blue 10
12 Midnight Fri 71 71 SW 13 7148 6257 577 Blue 8
1 AM Fri 70 70 SW 12 6895 5706 26 Blue 7
2 AM Fri 68 68 SW 10 6290 5680 0 Blue 5
3 AM Fri 67 67 SW 9 5729 5680 0 Blue 4
4 AM Fri 66 66 SW 8 5243 5680 0 Blue 3
5 AM Fri 65 65 S 7 5058 5680 0 Blue 2
6 AM Fri 65 65 S 7 5058 5680 0 Blue 2
7 AM Fri 66 66 S 7 5243 5680 0 Blue 3
8 AM Fri 67 69 S 8 6640 5680 0 Blue 6
9 AM Fri 69 73 S 9 7843 6875 1195 Blue 10
10 AM Fri 71 77 S 10 9127 8146 2466 Blue 14
11 AM Fri 74 82 S 12 10294 9637 3957 Blue 19
12 Noon Fri 76 85 S 13 11178 10253 4573 Blue 22
1 PM Fri 77 86 S 13 11790 10471 4791 Blue 23
2 PM Fri 79 87 S 13 12376 10689 5009 Blue 24
3 PM Fri 80 86 SW 14 11790 10471 4791 Blue 23
4 PM Fri 81 85 SW 14 11178 10253 4573 Blue 22
5 PM Fri 81 83 SW 13 10514 9841 4161 Blue 20
6 PM Fri 81 81 W 13 10081 9385 3705 Blue 18
7 PM Fri 80 80 W 13 9876 9081 3401 Blue 17
8 PM Fri 78 78 W 12 9434 8467 2787 Blue 15
9 PM Fri 76 76 W 12 8819 7805 2125 Blue 13
10 PM Fri 74 74 W 10 8187 7126 1446 Blue 11
11 PM Fri 72 72 W 10 7495 6622 942 Blue 9
12 Midnight Sat 70 70 NW 9 6895 5706 26 Blue 7
1 AM Sat 69 69 NW 9 6640 5680 0 Blue 6
2 AM Sat 68 68 NW 8 6290 5680 0 Blue 5
3 AM Sat 67 67 N 8 5729 5680 0 Blue 4
4 AM Sat 66 66 N 8 5243 5680 0 Blue 3
5 AM Sat 66 66 N 7 5243 5680 0 Blue 3

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com