Detailed Predictions for: Harquahala
Launch Altitude (f): 5680
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 37 37 E 15 2940 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 36 36 E 14 2940 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 36 36 E 12 2940 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 40 40 E 10 5430 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 44 45 E 9 7417 7028 1348 Blue 5
10 AM Tue 44 46 NE 8 7462 7246 1566 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 45 48 NE 7 7569 7412 1732 Blue 8
12 Noon Tue 47 50 NE 7 7954 7502 1822 Blue 10
1 PM Tue 47 50 NE 6 7954 7502 1822 Blue 10
2 PM Tue 48 50 N 6 7954 7502 1822 Blue 10
3 PM Tue 50 51 N 6 8303 7555 1875 Blue 11
4 PM Tue 50 50 N 7 7954 7502 1822 Blue 10
5 PM Tue 48 48 N 7 7569 7412 1732 Blue 8
6 PM Tue 45 45 N 7 7417 7028 1348 Blue 5
7 PM Tue 44 44 N 8 7372 6315 635 Blue 4
8 PM Tue 43 43 NE 9 7267 5680 0 Blue 3
9 PM Tue 43 43 NE 9 7267 5680 0 Blue 3
10 PM Tue 42 42 E 10 7047 5680 0 Blue 2
11 PM Tue 42 42 E 10 7047 5680 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Wed 42 42 E 10 7047 5680 0 Blue 2
1 AM Wed 42 42 E 10 7047 5680 0 Blue 2
2 AM Wed 41 41 E 10 6372 5680 0 Blue 1
3 AM Wed 41 41 E 10 6372 5680 0 Blue 1
4 AM Wed 41 41 E 10 6372 5680 0 Blue 1
5 AM Wed 40 40 E 10 5430 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 40 40 E 10 5430 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 40 40 E 9 5430 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 44 44 E 9 7372 6315 635 Blue 4
9 AM Wed 49 49 E 9 7709 7457 1777 Blue 9
10 AM Wed 49 50 E 8 7954 7502 1822 Blue 10
11 AM Wed 50 51 E 8 8303 7555 1875 Blue 11
12 Noon Wed 51 52 E 8 8610 7694 2014 Blue 12
1 PM Wed 52 53 NE 7 8650 7913 2233 Blue 13
2 PM Wed 53 54 NE 7 8690 8258 2578 Blue 14
3 PM Wed 55 55 NE 6 8730 8599 2919 Blue 15
4 PM Wed 54 54 N 6 8690 8258 2578 Blue 14
5 PM Wed 52 52 N 6 8610 7694 2014 Blue 12
6 PM Wed 49 49 N 6 7709 7457 1777 Blue 9
7 PM Wed 48 48 NE 6 7569 7412 1732 Blue 8
8 PM Wed 47 47 NE 7 7506 7367 1687 Blue 7
9 PM Wed 46 46 NE 7 7462 7246 1566 Blue 6
10 PM Wed 46 46 NE 8 7462 7246 1566 Blue 6
11 PM Wed 45 45 NE 8 7417 7028 1348 Blue 5
12 Midnight Thu 45 45 NE 8 7417 7028 1348 Blue 5
1 AM Thu 45 45 NE 8 7417 7028 1348 Blue 5
2 AM Thu 44 44 NE 8 7372 6315 635 Blue 4
3 AM Thu 44 44 NE 8 7372 6315 635 Blue 4
4 AM Thu 44 44 NE 8 7372 6315 635 Blue 4
5 AM Thu 43 43 NE 8 7267 5680 0 Blue 3
6 AM Thu 43 43 NE 8 7267 5680 0 Blue 3
7 AM Thu 43 43 NE 8 7267 5680 0 Blue 3
8 AM Thu 47 47 NE 8 7506 7367 1687 Blue 7
9 AM Thu 52 53 E 7 8650 7913 2233 Blue 13
10 AM Thu 53 55 E 7 8730 8599 2919 Blue 15
11 AM Thu 53 56 E 7 8770 8645 2965 Blue 16
12 Noon Thu 55 58 NE 7 8850 8724 3044 Blue 18
1 PM Thu 56 59 NE 6 8893 8764 3084 Blue 19
2 PM Thu 57 59 NE 6 8893 8764 3084 Blue 19
3 PM Thu 59 60 N 5 8978 8804 3124 Blue 20
4 PM Thu 58 58 N 5 8850 8724 3044 Blue 18
5 PM Thu 56 56 N 5 8770 8645 2965 Blue 16
6 PM Thu 52 52 N 5 8610 7694 2014 Blue 12
7 PM Thu 51 51 N 6 8303 7555 1875 Blue 11
8 PM Thu 50 50 NE 6 7954 7502 1822 Blue 10
9 PM Thu 49 49 NE 6 7709 7457 1777 Blue 9
10 PM Thu 49 49 E 7 7709 7457 1777 Blue 9
11 PM Thu 48 48 E 7 7569 7412 1732 Blue 8
12 Midnight Fri 48 48 E 7 7569 7412 1732 Blue 8
1 AM Fri 47 47 E 7 7506 7367 1687 Blue 7
2 AM Fri 47 47 E 7 7506 7367 1687 Blue 7
3 AM Fri 47 47 E 6 7506 7367 1687 Blue 7
4 AM Fri 46 46 E 6 7462 7246 1566 Blue 6
5 AM Fri 45 45 E 6 7417 7028 1348 Blue 5
6 AM Fri 45 45 E 6 7417 7028 1348 Blue 5
7 AM Fri 45 45 E 6 7417 7028 1348 Blue 5
8 AM Fri 49 49 SE 6 7709 7457 1777 Blue 9
9 AM Fri 53 53 SE 6 8650 7913 2233 Blue 13
10 AM Fri 53 54 S 6 8690 8258 2578 Blue 14
11 AM Fri 54 56 S 6 8770 8645 2965 Blue 16
12 Noon Fri 56 59 S 6 8893 8764 3084 Blue 19
1 PM Fri 56 59 S 6 8893 8764 3084 Blue 19
2 PM Fri 57 59 S 6 8893 8764 3084 Blue 19
3 PM Fri 59 60 SW 5 8978 8804 3124 Blue 20
4 PM Fri 58 58 SW 5 8850 8724 3044 Blue 18
5 PM Fri 56 56 SW 5 8770 8645 2965 Blue 16
6 PM Fri 52 52 SW 5 8610 7694 2014 Blue 12
7 PM Fri 51 51 SW 5 8303 7555 1875 Blue 11
8 PM Fri 50 50 SW 5 7954 7502 1822 Blue 10
9 PM Fri 49 49 SW 5 7709 7457 1777 Blue 9
10 PM Fri 49 49 SW 5 7709 7457 1777 Blue 9
11 PM Fri 48 48 SW 5 7569 7412 1732 Blue 8
12 Midnight Sat 48 48 SW 5 7569 7412 1732 Blue 8
1 AM Sat 47 47 SW 5 7506 7367 1687 Blue 7
2 AM Sat 47 47 SW 5 7506 7367 1687 Blue 7
3 AM Sat 47 47 S 5 7506 7367 1687 Blue 7
4 AM Sat 46 46 S 5 7462 7246 1566 Blue 6
5 AM Sat 45 45 S 5 7417 7028 1348 Blue 5
6 AM Sat 45 45 S 5 7417 7028 1348 Blue 5
7 AM Sat 45 45 S 6 7417 7028 1348 Blue 5
8 AM Sat 49 49 S 6 7709 7457 1777 Blue 9
9 AM Sat 53 53 S 6 8650 7913 2233 Blue 13
10 AM Sat 53 54 S 7 8690 8258 2578 Blue 14
11 AM Sat 54 56 S 7 8770 8645 2965 Blue 16
12 Noon Sat 56 58 S 7 8850 8724 3044 Blue 18
1 PM Sat 56 58 S 7 8850 8724 3044 Blue 18
2 PM Sat 57 59 S 7 8893 8764 3084 Blue 19
3 PM Sat 59 60 S 7 8978 8804 3124 Blue 20
4 PM Sat 58 58 S 7 8850 8724 3044 Blue 18
5 PM Sat 56 56 SW 7 8770 8645 2965 Blue 16
6 PM Sat 52 52 SW 7 8610 7694 2014 Blue 12
7 PM Sat 51 51 SW 6 8303 7555 1875 Blue 11
8 PM Sat 50 50 SW 6 7954 7502 1822 Blue 10
9 PM Sat 49 49 SW 6 7709 7457 1777 Blue 9
10 PM Sat 49 49 SW 5 7709 7457 1777 Blue 9
11 PM Sat 48 48 SW 5 7569 7412 1732 Blue 8
12 Midnight Sun 48 48 SW 5 7569 7412 1732 Blue 8
1 AM Sun 47 47 SW 5 7506 7367 1687 Blue 7
2 AM Sun 47 47 SW 5 7506 7367 1687 Blue 7
3 AM Sun 47 47 S 6 7506 7367 1687 Blue 7
4 AM Sun 46 46 S 6 7462 7246 1566 Blue 6
5 AM Sun 45 45 S 6 7417 7028 1348 Blue 5
6 AM Sun 45 45 S 6 7417 7028 1348 Blue 5
7 AM Sun 45 45 S 6 7417 7028 1348 Blue 5
8 AM Sun 49 49 S 7 7709 7457 1777 Blue 9
9 AM Sun 53 53 S 7 8650 7913 2233 Blue 13
10 AM Sun 53 54 S 7 8690 8258 2578 Blue 14
11 AM Sun 54 56 S 7 8770 8645 2965 Blue 16
12 Noon Sun 56 58 S 7 8850 8724 3044 Blue 18
1 PM Sun 56 58 S 6 8850 8724 3044 Blue 18
2 PM Sun 57 59 S 6 8893 8764 3084 Blue 19
3 PM Sun 59 60 SW 5 8978 8804 3124 Blue 20
4 PM Sun 58 58 SW 5 8850 8724 3044 Blue 18
5 PM Sun 56 56 SW 5 8770 8645 2965 Blue 16
6 PM Sun 53 53 SW 5 8650 7913 2233 Blue 13
7 PM Sun 52 52 SW 6 8610 7694 2014 Blue 12
8 PM Sun 51 51 W 6 8303 7555 1875 Blue 11
9 PM Sun 50 50 W 7 7954 7502 1822 Blue 10
10 PM Sun 50 50 W 8 7954 7502 1822 Blue 10
11 PM Sun 49 49 NW 8 7709 7457 1777 Blue 9
12 Midnight Mon 49 49 NW 8 7709 7457 1777 Blue 9
1 AM Mon 49 49 N 8 7709 7457 1777 Blue 9
2 AM Mon 48 48 N 8 7569 7412 1732 Blue 8
3 AM Mon 48 48 NE 8 7569 7412 1732 Blue 8
4 AM Mon 48 48 E 8 7569 7412 1732 Blue 8

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com