Detailed Predictions for: Harquahala
Launch Altitude (f): 5680
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 54 54 NE 6 4324 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 54 54 NE 6 4324 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 54 54 NE 6 4324 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 55 55 NE 6 4324 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 58 59 E 6 4664 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 59 61 E 6 5123 5680 0 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 60 63 S 6 5331 5680 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Wed 62 65 W 8 5795 5680 0 Blue 5
1 PM Wed 63 66 W 10 6055 5680 0 Blue 6
2 PM Wed 64 67 W 10 6315 5680 0 Blue 7
3 PM Wed 64 65 W 10 5795 5680 0 Blue 5
4 PM Wed 63 63 W 12 5331 5680 0 Blue 3
5 PM Wed 62 62 W 12 5227 5680 0 Blue 2
6 PM Wed 60 60 W 9 4876 5680 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 59 59 W 7 4664 5680 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 58 58 W 7 4452 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 58 58 SW 6 4452 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 58 58 N 7 4452 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 57 57 N 7 4324 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 57 57 N 6 4324 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 56 56 NE 6 4324 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 55 NE 6 4324 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 55 55 NE 6 4324 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 55 55 NE 6 4324 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 55 55 NE 6 4324 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 55 55 NE 6 4324 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 55 55 NE 7 4324 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 56 56 E 8 4324 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 60 60 E 7 4876 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 60 61 E 8 5123 5680 0 Blue 1
11 AM Thu 61 63 SE 9 5331 5680 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Thu 63 65 SE 9 5795 5680 0 Blue 5
1 PM Thu 64 66 SE 9 6055 5680 0 Blue 6
2 PM Thu 64 66 SE 9 6055 5680 0 Blue 6
3 PM Thu 64 65 SE 9 5795 5680 0 Blue 5
4 PM Thu 63 63 SE 8 5331 5680 0 Blue 3
5 PM Thu 62 62 SE 8 5227 5680 0 Blue 2
6 PM Thu 61 61 SE 7 5123 5680 0 Blue 1
7 PM Thu 60 60 E 6 4876 5680 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 59 59 E 6 4664 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 59 59 E 6 4664 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 59 59 E 7 4664 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 59 59 E 8 4664 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 58 58 E 8 4452 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 58 58 NE 8 4452 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 57 57 NE 8 4324 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 56 56 NE 8 4324 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 56 56 NE 9 4324 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 56 56 NE 9 4324 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 56 56 NE 10 4324 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 56 56 E 10 4324 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 57 57 E 12 4324 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 59 59 E 13 4664 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 60 60 E 14 4876 5680 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 62 62 E 14 5227 5680 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Fri 63 63 E 14 5331 5680 0 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 64 65 SE 13 5795 5680 0 Blue 5
2 PM Fri 64 64 SE 12 5533 5680 0 Blue 4
3 PM Fri 64 64 SE 10 5533 5680 0 Blue 4
4 PM Fri 63 63 SE 9 5331 5680 0 Blue 3
5 PM Fri 62 62 SE 8 5227 5680 0 Blue 2
6 PM Fri 61 61 E 7 5123 5680 0 Blue 1
7 PM Fri 60 60 NE 6 4876 5680 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 59 59 N 6 4664 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 59 59 N 7 4664 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 58 58 N 9 4452 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 58 58 N 10 4452 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 58 58 N 10 4452 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 57 57 N 10 4324 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 57 57 N 9 4324 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 57 57 N 9 4324 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 56 56 NE 9 4324 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 56 56 NE 9 4324 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 56 56 NE 9 4324 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 56 56 NE 9 4324 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 57 57 NE 9 4324 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 59 59 NE 8 4664 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 61 62 NE 7 5227 5680 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 63 65 N 7 5795 5680 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 65 68 N 8 6756 5784 104 Blue 8
1 PM Sat 66 69 NW 9 7476 6042 362 Blue 9
2 PM Sat 66 69 W 10 7476 6042 362 Blue 9
3 PM Sat 66 67 W 12 6315 5680 0 Blue 7
4 PM Sat 65 65 W 12 5795 5680 0 Blue 5
5 PM Sat 64 64 W 12 5533 5680 0 Blue 4
6 PM Sat 62 62 W 12 5227 5680 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sat 61 61 NW 10 5123 5680 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sat 59 59 NW 10 4664 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 58 58 NW 10 4452 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 58 58 NW 10 4452 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 58 58 NW 10 4452 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 57 57 N 12 4324 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 57 57 N 13 4324 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 56 56 N 14 4324 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 55 55 N 14 4324 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 54 54 NE 14 4324 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 54 54 NE 14 4324 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 54 54 NE 13 4324 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 54 54 N 13 4324 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 55 55 N 12 4324 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 56 57 N 12 4324 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 58 60 N 10 4876 5680 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 60 63 N 10 5331 5680 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Sun 62 65 N 10 5795 5680 0 Blue 5
1 PM Sun 64 67 NW 10 6315 5680 0 Blue 7
2 PM Sun 65 67 NW 10 6315 5680 0 Blue 7
3 PM Sun 65 66 NW 10 6055 5680 0 Blue 6
4 PM Sun 64 64 W 10 5533 5680 0 Blue 4
5 PM Sun 63 63 W 10 5331 5680 0 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 61 61 W 9 5123 5680 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 60 60 NW 8 4876 5680 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 58 58 NW 8 4452 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 57 57 NW 8 4324 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 57 57 N 9 4324 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 57 57 N 10 4324 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 56 56 N 10 4324 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 55 55 N 10 4324 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 54 54 N 10 4324 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 54 54 N 10 4324 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 54 54 N 10 4324 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 54 54 N 10 4324 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 54 54 N 10 4324 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 54 54 NE 10 4324 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 55 55 NE 10 4324 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 56 56 NE 9 4324 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 58 60 E 8 4876 5680 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 60 62 E 8 5227 5680 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Mon 62 65 SE 9 5795 5680 0 Blue 5
1 PM Mon 63 66 S 9 6055 5680 0 Blue 6
2 PM Mon 64 66 S 10 6055 5680 0 Blue 6
3 PM Mon 64 65 SW 10 5795 5680 0 Blue 5
4 PM Mon 63 63 SW 10 5331 5680 0 Blue 3
5 PM Mon 62 62 W 9 5227 5680 0 Blue 2
6 PM Mon 60 60 W 8 4876 5680 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 59 59 W 7 4664 5680 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 57 57 NW 6 4324 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 56 56 NW 7 4324 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 56 56 NE 9 4324 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 56 56 E 10 4324 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 56 56 E 10 4324 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 55 55 E 10 4324 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 55 55 E 9 4324 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 55 55 E 9 4324 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 54 54 E 9 4324 5680 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com