Detailed Predictions for: Harquahala
Launch Altitude (f): 5680
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

17 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 48 48 NE 5 3801 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 47 47 NE 5 3595 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 47 47 NE 5 3595 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 48 48 NE 5 3801 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 50 50 NE 5 4211 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 53 54 NE 6 5026 5680 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 56 58 NE 6 5738 5680 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Wed 58 60 NE 6 6090 5680 0 Blue 6
1 PM Wed 58 61 N 5 6265 5730 50 Blue 7
2 PM Wed 59 61 N 5 6265 5730 50 Blue 7
3 PM Wed 59 60 N 5 6090 5680 0 Blue 6
4 PM Wed 59 59 NW 5 5914 5680 0 Blue 5
5 PM Wed 59 59 NW 6 5914 5680 0 Blue 5
6 PM Wed 57 57 NW 7 5561 5680 0 Blue 3
7 PM Wed 56 56 NW 7 5385 5680 0 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 55 55 N 8 5208 5680 0 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 54 54 N 8 5026 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 54 54 N 8 5026 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 54 54 N 7 5026 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 53 53 NE 6 4823 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 52 52 E 6 4620 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 52 52 E 5 4620 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 51 51 E 6 4416 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 51 51 SE 7 4416 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 51 51 SE 8 4416 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 50 50 SE 8 4211 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 50 50 SE 7 4211 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 51 51 SE 7 4416 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 54 54 SE 7 5026 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 57 58 SE 7 5738 5680 0 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 60 62 SE 7 6440 5905 225 Blue 8
12 Noon Thu 62 64 SE 7 6790 6255 575 Blue 10
1 PM Thu 62 64 E 6 6790 6255 575 Blue 10
2 PM Thu 63 64 E 5 6790 6255 575 Blue 10
3 PM Thu 63 64 SE 5 6790 6255 575 Blue 10
4 PM Thu 63 63 SE 3 6615 6080 400 Blue 9
5 PM Thu 63 63 SE 3 6615 6080 400 Blue 9
6 PM Thu 61 61 SE 3 6265 5730 50 Blue 7
7 PM Thu 59 59 SE 5 5914 5680 0 Blue 5
8 PM Thu 58 58 SE 5 5738 5680 0 Blue 4
9 PM Thu 56 56 SE 5 5385 5680 0 Blue 2
10 PM Thu 56 56 SE 5 5385 5680 0 Blue 2
11 PM Thu 55 55 S 6 5208 5680 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Fri 55 55 S 6 5208 5680 0 Blue 1
1 AM Fri 54 54 S 7 5026 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 54 54 S 8 5026 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 53 53 S 9 4823 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 52 52 S 10 4620 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 51 51 S 10 4416 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 51 51 S 12 4416 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 51 51 S 13 4416 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 53 53 S 14 4823 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 55 55 S 14 5208 5680 0 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 57 58 S 15 5738 5680 0 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 60 61 S 15 6265 5730 50 Blue 7
12 Noon Fri 61 62 S 15 6440 5905 225 Blue 8
1 PM Fri 62 63 S 15 6615 6080 400 Blue 9
2 PM Fri 62 63 S 16 6615 6080 400 Blue 9
3 PM Fri 62 63 S 16 6615 6080 400 Blue 9
4 PM Fri 61 61 S 16 6265 5730 50 Blue 7
5 PM Fri 60 60 S 16 6090 5680 0 Blue 6
6 PM Fri 59 59 S 16 5914 5680 0 Blue 5
7 PM Fri 58 58 SW 16 5738 5680 0 Blue 4
8 PM Fri 56 56 SW 16 5385 5680 0 Blue 2
9 PM Fri 55 55 SW 16 5208 5680 0 Blue 1
10 PM Fri 55 55 SW 16 5208 5680 0 Blue 1
11 PM Fri 54 54 SW 17 5026 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 53 53 W 17 4823 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 52 52 W 18 4620 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 51 51 W 20 4416 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 51 51 W 20 4416 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 51 51 W 21 4416 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 50 50 W 21 4211 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 48 48 W 21 3801 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 46 46 W 20 3389 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 45 45 W 18 3182 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 45 45 W 18 3182 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 45 46 W 17 3389 5680 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 46 48 W 16 3801 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 47 49 W 17 4006 5680 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 48 50 W 17 4211 5680 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 48 50 W 18 4211 5680 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 48 49 W 20 4006 5680 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 47 47 W 21 3595 5680 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 45 45 NW 21 3182 5680 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 44 44 NW 21 2975 5680 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 43 43 NW 20 2933 5680 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 43 43 NW 18 2933 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 42 42 NW 17 2933 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 41 41 NW 16 2933 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 40 40 NW 15 2933 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 39 39 NW 15 2933 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 37 37 NW 14 2933 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 36 36 NW 14 2933 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 37 37 NW 14 2933 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 37 37 NW 13 2933 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 38 38 NW 13 2933 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 36 36 NW 13 2933 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 35 35 NW 13 2933 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 35 35 N 13 2933 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 37 37 N 13 2933 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 40 41 N 13 2933 5680 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 44 46 N 12 3389 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 47 49 N 12 4006 5680 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 50 52 NW 12 4620 5680 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 51 53 NW 12 4823 5680 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 51 52 NW 12 4620 5680 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 50 50 NW 12 4211 5680 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 48 48 NW 10 3801 5680 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 47 47 NW 10 3595 5680 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 45 45 NW 10 3182 5680 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 44 44 NW 9 2975 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 45 45 NW 9 3182 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 46 46 NW 8 3389 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 46 46 NW 8 3389 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 44 44 NW 7 2975 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 42 42 N 7 2933 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 41 41 N 7 2933 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 42 42 N 7 2933 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 43 43 N 6 2933 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 45 45 N 6 3182 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 44 44 N 5 2975 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 43 43 N 5 2933 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 42 42 N 3 2933 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 44 44 N 3 2975 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 47 48 N 3 3801 5680 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 51 52 N 3 4620 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 53 55 N 3 5208 5680 0 Blue 1
1 PM Mon 55 57 N 5 5561 5680 0 Blue 3
2 PM Mon 55 56 N 7 5385 5680 0 Blue 2
3 PM Mon 54 55 NW 8 5208 5680 0 Blue 1
4 PM Mon 53 53 NW 9 4823 5680 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 51 51 NW 9 4416 5680 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 50 50 NW 10 4211 5680 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 48 48 NW 9 3801 5680 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 48 48 NW 9 3801 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 48 48 NW 9 3801 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 48 48 NW 8 3801 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 48 48 N 8 3801 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 47 47 N 8 3595 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 45 45 N 9 3182 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 45 45 N 9 3182 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 45 45 N 9 3182 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 47 47 N 9 3595 5680 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com