Detailed Predictions for: Harquahala
Launch Altitude (f): 5680
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

21 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sat 76 76 S 10 4371 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 76 76 S 12 4371 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 77 77 S 12 4633 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 77 78 S 12 5696 5680 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 78 79 S 10 5903 5680 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 80 82 SW 9 6521 5893 213 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 82 85 SW 8 7849 6508 828 Blue 8
1 PM Sat 83 86 SW 8 7993 6711 1031 Blue 9
2 PM Sat 84 87 SW 8 8137 7690 2010 Blue 10
3 PM Sat 85 88 SW 8 9658 7834 2154 Blue 11
4 PM Sat 86 88 W 9 9658 7834 2154 Blue 11
5 PM Sat 87 88 W 10 9658 7834 2154 Blue 11
6 PM Sat 86 86 W 10 7993 6711 1031 Blue 9
7 PM Sat 85 85 W 9 7849 6508 828 Blue 8
8 PM Sat 82 82 W 9 6521 5893 213 Blue 5
9 PM Sat 82 82 W 8 6521 5893 213 Blue 5
10 PM Sat 81 81 W 8 6315 5688 8 Blue 4
11 PM Sat 80 80 W 8 6109 5680 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sun 80 80 W 8 6109 5680 0 Blue 3
1 AM Sun 78 78 W 7 5696 5680 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sun 78 78 W 6 5696 5680 0 Blue 1
3 AM Sun 79 79 W 5 5903 5680 0 Blue 2
4 AM Sun 78 78 W 5 5696 5680 0 Blue 1
5 AM Sun 78 78 W 5 5696 5680 0 Blue 1
6 AM Sun 78 78 W 6 5696 5680 0 Blue 1
7 AM Sun 77 77 W 5 4633 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 80 81 W 5 6315 5688 8 Blue 4
9 AM Sun 81 83 W 5 6726 6099 419 Blue 6
10 AM Sun 83 87 W 5 8137 7690 2010 Blue 10
11 AM Sun 86 91 W 3 11850 9355 3675 Blue 14
12 Noon Sun 88 94 W 3 13485 11730 6050 White 17
1 PM Sun 89 95 W 5 13693 13693 8013 White 18
2 PM Sun 90 95 W 6 13693 13693 8013 White 18
3 PM Sun 90 94 W 7 13485 11730 6050 White 17
4 PM Sun 92 95 W 8 13693 13693 8013 White 18
5 PM Sun 94 95 W 8 13693 13693 8013 White 18
6 PM Sun 94 94 W 9 13485 11730 6050 White 17
7 PM Sun 92 92 W 9 13068 10681 5001 White 15
8 PM Sun 89 89 W 8 10789 7977 2297 Blue 12
9 PM Sun 87 87 W 8 8137 7690 2010 Blue 10
10 PM Sun 85 85 W 8 7849 6508 828 Blue 8
11 PM Sun 85 85 W 7 7849 6508 828 Blue 8
12 Midnight Mon 85 85 W 7 7849 6508 828 Blue 8
1 AM Mon 85 85 W 7 7849 6508 828 Blue 8
2 AM Mon 84 84 NW 7 7705 6303 623 Blue 7
3 AM Mon 83 83 NW 7 6726 6099 419 Blue 6
4 AM Mon 82 82 NW 7 6521 5893 213 Blue 5
5 AM Mon 82 82 NW 7 6521 5893 213 Blue 5
6 AM Mon 82 82 NW 7 6521 5893 213 Blue 5
7 AM Mon 81 81 NW 7 6315 5688 8 Blue 4
8 AM Mon 82 83 NW 7 6726 6099 419 Blue 6
9 AM Mon 83 86 NW 6 7993 6711 1031 Blue 9
10 AM Mon 86 91 W 6 11850 9355 3675 Blue 14
11 AM Mon 89 95 W 5 13693 13693 8013 White 18
12 Noon Mon 91 98 W 5 14316 14316 8636 White 21
1 PM Mon 93 100 W 5 14729 14729 9049 White 23
2 PM Mon 94 100 W 6 14729 14729 9049 White 23
3 PM Mon 95 100 W 6 14729 14729 9049 White 23
4 PM Mon 96 99 W 7 14522 14522 8842 White 22
5 PM Mon 97 99 W 8 14522 14522 8842 White 22
6 PM Mon 97 97 W 8 14109 14109 8429 White 20
7 PM Mon 96 96 W 9 13901 13901 8221 White 19
8 PM Mon 93 93 W 9 13276 11213 5533 White 16
9 PM Mon 91 91 W 10 11850 9355 3675 Blue 14
10 PM Mon 90 90 W 10 11327 8121 2441 Blue 13
11 PM Mon 88 88 W 10 9658 7834 2154 Blue 11
12 Midnight Tue 88 88 W 10 9658 7834 2154 Blue 11
1 AM Tue 87 87 W 10 8137 7690 2010 Blue 10
2 AM Tue 86 86 W 10 7993 6711 1031 Blue 9
3 AM Tue 85 85 W 10 7849 6508 828 Blue 8
4 AM Tue 84 84 W 10 7705 6303 623 Blue 7
5 AM Tue 84 84 NW 9 7705 6303 623 Blue 7
6 AM Tue 83 83 NW 9 6726 6099 419 Blue 6
7 AM Tue 84 84 W 9 7705 6303 623 Blue 7
8 AM Tue 85 86 W 8 7993 6711 1031 Blue 9
9 AM Tue 87 90 SW 7 11327 8121 2441 Blue 13
10 AM Tue 90 95 S 7 13693 13693 8013 White 18
11 AM Tue 94 101 S 7 14936 14936 9256 White 24
12 Noon Tue 96 103 SE 7 15347 15347 9667 White 26
1 PM Tue 98 105 SE 7 15749 15749 10069 White 28
2 PM Tue 99 105 S 8 15749 15749 10069 White 28
3 PM Tue 100 105 S 9 15749 15749 10069 White 28
4 PM Tue 102 105 SW 10 15749 15749 10069 White 28
5 PM Tue 103 105 SW 12 15749 15749 10069 White 28
6 PM Tue 103 103 W 13 15347 15347 9667 White 26
7 PM Tue 101 101 W 14 14936 14936 9256 White 24
8 PM Tue 97 97 W 14 14109 14109 8429 White 20
9 PM Tue 94 94 W 15 13485 11730 6050 White 17
10 PM Tue 92 92 W 15 13068 10681 5001 White 15
11 PM Tue 91 91 W 15 11850 9355 3675 Blue 14
12 Midnight Wed 90 90 W 14 11327 8121 2441 Blue 13
1 AM Wed 89 89 W 13 10789 7977 2297 Blue 12
2 AM Wed 88 88 W 10 9658 7834 2154 Blue 11
3 AM Wed 87 87 SW 8 8137 7690 2010 Blue 10
4 AM Wed 85 85 SW 6 7849 6508 828 Blue 8
5 AM Wed 84 84 SW 3 7705 6303 623 Blue 7
6 AM Wed 84 84 SW 2 7705 6303 623 Blue 7
7 AM Wed 84 84 SW 2 7705 6303 623 Blue 7
8 AM Wed 85 86 SW 2 7993 6711 1031 Blue 9
9 AM Wed 87 89 SW 3 10789 7977 2297 Blue 12
10 AM Wed 89 93 S 5 13276 11213 5533 White 16
11 AM Wed 92 97 S 7 14109 14109 8429 White 20
12 Noon Wed 94 100 S 8 14729 14729 9049 White 23
1 PM Wed 96 102 S 9 15141 15141 9461 White 25
2 PM Wed 98 103 S 10 15347 15347 9667 White 26
3 PM Wed 99 103 SW 12 15347 15347 9667 White 26
4 PM Wed 100 103 SW 13 15347 15347 9667 White 26
5 PM Wed 101 102 SW 13 15141 15141 9461 White 25
6 PM Wed 100 100 W 14 14729 14729 9049 White 23
7 PM Wed 98 98 W 14 14316 14316 8636 White 21
8 PM Wed 96 96 W 14 13901 13901 8221 White 19
9 PM Wed 93 93 W 14 13276 11213 5533 White 16
10 PM Wed 92 92 W 14 13068 10681 5001 White 15
11 PM Wed 92 92 W 13 13068 10681 5001 White 15
12 Midnight Thu 91 91 W 13 11850 9355 3675 Blue 14
1 AM Thu 90 90 SW 10 11327 8121 2441 Blue 13
2 AM Thu 88 88 SW 9 9658 7834 2154 Blue 11
3 AM Thu 86 86 SW 8 7993 6711 1031 Blue 9
4 AM Thu 85 85 S 6 7849 6508 828 Blue 8
5 AM Thu 85 85 S 5 7849 6508 828 Blue 8
6 AM Thu 84 84 S 5 7705 6303 623 Blue 7
7 AM Thu 84 84 S 5 7705 6303 623 Blue 7
8 AM Thu 84 85 S 6 7849 6508 828 Blue 8
9 AM Thu 84 86 S 7 7993 6711 1031 Blue 9
10 AM Thu 85 88 S 9 9658 7834 2154 Blue 11
11 AM Thu 87 91 S 10 11850 9355 3675 Blue 14
12 Noon Thu 89 94 S 12 13485 11730 6050 White 17
1 PM Thu 91 96 S 13 13901 13901 8221 White 19
2 PM Thu 93 97 S 13 14109 14109 8429 White 20
3 PM Thu 95 98 S 13 14316 14316 8636 White 21
4 PM Thu 96 98 SW 13 14316 14316 8636 White 21
5 PM Thu 96 97 SW 12 14109 14109 8429 White 20
6 PM Thu 96 96 SW 12 13901 13901 8221 White 19
7 PM Thu 94 94 SW 12 13485 11730 6050 White 17
8 PM Thu 92 92 SW 12 13068 10681 5001 White 15
9 PM Thu 90 90 SW 12 11327 8121 2441 Blue 13
10 PM Thu 89 89 SW 12 10789 7977 2297 Blue 12
11 PM Thu 88 88 SW 12 9658 7834 2154 Blue 11
12 Midnight Fri 87 87 SW 12 8137 7690 2010 Blue 10
1 AM Fri 86 86 SW 12 7993 6711 1031 Blue 9
2 AM Fri 85 85 S 10 7849 6508 828 Blue 8
3 AM Fri 83 83 S 10 6726 6099 419 Blue 6
4 AM Fri 83 83 S 9 6726 6099 419 Blue 6
5 AM Fri 82 82 S 9 6521 5893 213 Blue 5

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com