Detailed Predictions for: Harquahala
Launch Altitude (f): 5680
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

26 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sun 51 51 S 23 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 51 51 S 24 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 52 54 S 24 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 52 56 S 24 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 53 59 S 23 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 54 61 S 22 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 56 64 S 21 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 58 66 S 21 7227 5680 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sun 60 66 S 22 7227 5680 0 Blue 1
3 PM Sun 62 67 S 22 7851 5680 0 Blue 2
4 PM Sun 62 65 S 22 5151 5680 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 62 63 S 22 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 62 62 SW 22 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 61 61 SW 21 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 60 60 SW 21 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 57 57 SW 20 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 56 56 SW 20 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 54 54 SW 20 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 52 52 SW 20 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 51 51 W 18 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 50 50 W 17 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 48 48 W 15 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 48 48 W 15 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 48 48 W 15 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 47 47 W 15 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 47 47 W 14 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 47 49 W 13 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 48 51 W 13 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 49 55 W 13 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 50 57 W 13 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 52 61 W 13 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 54 63 W 14 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 56 64 W 15 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 57 63 W 15 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 58 62 W 16 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 58 60 W 15 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 58 58 W 15 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 57 57 W 14 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 56 56 W 13 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 55 55 W 10 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 54 54 W 9 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 53 53 W 8 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 52 52 W 7 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 52 52 W 7 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 51 51 W 6 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 51 51 W 6 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 50 50 W 5 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 50 50 SW 3 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 50 50 SW 2 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 51 51 SW 2 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 53 55 SW 2 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 56 60 SW 3 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 58 64 SW 5 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 60 68 SW 6 8252 5680 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Tue 62 71 SW 7 8788 8241 2561 Blue 6
1 PM Tue 63 72 SW 7 9002 8325 2645 Blue 7
2 PM Tue 64 72 SW 8 9002 8325 2645 Blue 7
3 PM Tue 65 71 SW 8 8788 8241 2561 Blue 6
4 PM Tue 66 70 W 9 8478 7785 2105 Blue 5
5 PM Tue 66 68 W 9 8252 5680 0 Blue 3
6 PM Tue 66 66 W 9 7227 5680 0 Blue 1
7 PM Tue 65 65 W 9 5151 5680 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 64 64 W 9 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 63 63 W 9 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 62 62 W 8 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 60 60 W 8 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 59 59 W 7 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 58 58 W 7 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 58 58 NW 6 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 58 58 NW 6 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 57 57 NW 5 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 56 56 NW 5 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 56 56 NW 5 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 58 58 NW 5 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 60 62 W 6 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 63 67 W 6 7851 5680 0 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 65 71 SW 7 8788 8241 2561 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 67 75 SW 8 9800 8976 3296 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 69 78 S 8 12863 9770 4090 Blue 13
1 PM Wed 70 79 SW 9 13230 12017 6337 Blue 14
2 PM Wed 71 79 SW 9 13230 12017 6337 Blue 14
3 PM Wed 72 78 SW 10 12863 9770 4090 Blue 13
4 PM Wed 72 76 SW 10 12112 9266 3586 Blue 11
5 PM Wed 72 74 SW 10 9624 8745 3065 Blue 9
6 PM Wed 72 72 SW 10 9002 8325 2645 Blue 7
7 PM Wed 71 71 SW 12 8788 8241 2561 Blue 6
8 PM Wed 70 70 SW 12 8478 7785 2105 Blue 5
9 PM Wed 69 69 SW 12 8336 7171 1491 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 67 67 SW 13 7851 5680 0 Blue 2
11 PM Wed 66 66 SW 12 7227 5680 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 64 64 SW 12 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 63 63 SW 10 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 62 62 W 8 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 61 61 W 6 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 60 60 W 5 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 60 60 NW 2 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 60 60 NW 2 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 61 61 NW 2 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 64 66 W 3 7227 5680 0 Blue 1
9 AM Thu 66 70 SW 5 8478 7785 2105 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 68 74 SW 7 9624 8745 3065 Blue 9
11 AM Thu 70 78 S 8 12863 9770 4090 Blue 13
12 Noon Thu 72 81 S 9 15066 12760 7080 White 16
1 PM Thu 73 82 S 10 15269 13124 7444 White 17
2 PM Thu 74 82 S 10 15269 13124 7444 White 17
3 PM Thu 75 81 S 12 15066 12760 7080 White 16
4 PM Thu 76 80 S 12 14212 12391 6711 Blue 15
5 PM Thu 76 78 SW 12 12863 9770 4090 Blue 13
6 PM Thu 75 75 SW 12 9800 8976 3296 Blue 10
7 PM Thu 74 74 SW 13 9624 8745 3065 Blue 9
8 PM Thu 72 72 SW 13 9002 8325 2645 Blue 7
9 PM Thu 70 70 SW 13 8478 7785 2105 Blue 5
10 PM Thu 68 68 SW 12 8252 5680 0 Blue 3
11 PM Thu 66 66 W 12 7227 5680 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Fri 65 65 W 10 5151 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 64 64 SW 9 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 64 64 SW 7 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 63 63 S 5 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 62 62 S 3 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 61 61 SE 2 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 61 61 SE 1 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 62 62 SE 2 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 65 67 SE 3 7851 5680 0 Blue 2
9 AM Fri 67 71 S 5 8788 8241 2561 Blue 6
10 AM Fri 69 75 S 7 9800 8976 3296 Blue 10
11 AM Fri 71 79 S 9 13230 12017 6337 Blue 14
12 Noon Fri 73 82 S 10 15269 13124 7444 White 17
1 PM Fri 74 83 S 12 15472 13747 8067 White 18
2 PM Fri 75 83 S 13 15472 13747 8067 White 18
3 PM Fri 76 82 S 14 15269 13124 7444 White 17
4 PM Fri 76 80 S 15 14212 12391 6711 Blue 15
5 PM Fri 76 78 S 15 12863 9770 4090 Blue 13
6 PM Fri 76 76 S 15 12112 9266 3586 Blue 11
7 PM Fri 74 74 S 14 9624 8745 3065 Blue 9
8 PM Fri 72 72 S 14 9002 8325 2645 Blue 7
9 PM Fri 70 70 S 13 8478 7785 2105 Blue 5
10 PM Fri 68 68 S 12 8252 5680 0 Blue 3
11 PM Fri 67 67 SW 10 7851 5680 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sat 65 65 SW 9 5151 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 63 63 S 8 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 62 62 S 8 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 61 61 S 7 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 60 60 S 7 4291 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 59 59 SE 7 4291 5680 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com