Detailed Predictions for: Harquahala
Launch Altitude (f): 5680
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

19 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 48 48 E 5 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 48 48 E 6 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 49 49 E 7 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 50 50 E 8 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 55 55 E 8 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 58 59 E 8 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 59 61 E 8 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 61 64 E 7 5520 5680 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sun 62 65 E 5 5685 5680 0 Blue 3
2 PM Sun 63 65 NE 3 5685 5680 0 Blue 3
3 PM Sun 63 64 NE 3 5520 5680 0 Blue 2
4 PM Sun 63 63 N 3 5356 5680 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sun 58 58 N 5 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 55 55 N 3 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 54 54 NE 2 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 53 53 NE 1 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 53 53 NE 2 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 51 51 E 2 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 50 50 SE 2 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 50 50 SE 3 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 51 51 SE 3 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 49 49 S 3 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 50 50 S 3 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 49 49 S 3 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 49 49 S 3 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 49 49 S 3 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 49 49 S 2 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 50 50 S 2 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 57 57 SE 1 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 59 60 SE 1 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 59 61 E 1 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 63 66 SE 1 5850 5680 0 Blue 4
1 PM Mon 64 66 SW 1 5850 5680 0 Blue 4
2 PM Mon 63 64 W 2 5520 5680 0 Blue 2
3 PM Mon 62 63 W 3 5356 5680 0 Blue 1
4 PM Mon 61 61 W 5 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 60 60 W 5 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 59 59 W 5 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 57 57 W 5 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 56 56 W 5 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 55 55 NW 5 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 54 54 NW 6 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 54 54 NW 6 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 54 54 NW 6 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 54 54 N 5 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 54 54 N 5 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 54 54 N 5 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 54 54 N 6 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 54 54 N 6 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 53 53 N 6 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 53 53 N 5 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 54 54 N 5 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 57 57 N 3 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 61 62 NE 3 4920 5680 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 65 66 NE 3 5850 5680 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Tue 67 69 N 3 9593 5843 163 Blue 7
1 PM Tue 69 71 N 3 9768 7296 1616 Blue 9
2 PM Tue 69 70 N 5 9680 6566 886 Blue 8
3 PM Tue 69 70 N 6 9680 6566 886 Blue 8
4 PM Tue 67 67 N 6 6619 5680 0 Blue 5
5 PM Tue 66 66 N 7 5850 5680 0 Blue 4
6 PM Tue 64 64 N 7 5520 5680 0 Blue 2
7 PM Tue 62 62 N 8 4920 5680 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 60 60 NE 8 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 60 60 NE 8 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 60 60 NE 8 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 60 60 NE 8 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 60 60 NE 7 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 60 60 E 7 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 59 59 E 7 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 59 59 E 6 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 59 59 E 6 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 58 58 E 6 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 58 58 E 7 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 58 58 E 7 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 60 60 E 8 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 63 63 E 9 5356 5680 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 68 69 E 9 9593 5843 163 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 72 74 E 9 10478 9753 4073 Blue 12
12 Noon Wed 75 78 E 9 11135 10552 4872 Blue 16
1 PM Wed 76 79 NE 8 11530 10645 4965 Blue 17
2 PM Wed 76 78 NE 7 11135 10552 4872 Blue 16
3 PM Wed 75 76 N 6 10664 9947 4267 Blue 14
4 PM Wed 74 74 N 5 10478 9753 4073 Blue 12
5 PM Wed 72 72 N 3 9857 9578 3898 Blue 10
6 PM Wed 69 69 N 3 9593 5843 163 Blue 7
7 PM Wed 66 66 N 5 5850 5680 0 Blue 4
8 PM Wed 64 64 N 6 5520 5680 0 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 64 64 NE 6 5520 5680 0 Blue 2
10 PM Wed 63 63 NE 7 5356 5680 0 Blue 1
11 PM Wed 63 63 NE 7 5356 5680 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 62 62 NE 7 4920 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 61 61 NE 7 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 60 60 NE 6 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 60 60 E 6 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 60 60 E 5 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 60 60 E 5 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 59 59 E 3 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 59 59 E 3 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 60 60 E 2 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 63 63 NE 2 5356 5680 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 67 68 NE 2 7362 5680 0 Blue 6
11 AM Thu 71 73 NE 2 9978 9665 3985 Blue 11
12 Noon Thu 74 77 NE 2 10890 10459 4779 Blue 15
1 PM Thu 75 78 NE 2 11135 10552 4872 Blue 16
2 PM Thu 76 78 N 3 11135 10552 4872 Blue 16
3 PM Thu 76 77 N 3 10890 10459 4779 Blue 15
4 PM Thu 74 74 NW 3 10478 9753 4073 Blue 12
5 PM Thu 72 72 NW 3 9857 9578 3898 Blue 10
6 PM Thu 69 69 NW 3 9593 5843 163 Blue 7
7 PM Thu 65 65 NW 3 5685 5680 0 Blue 3
8 PM Thu 63 63 NW 3 5356 5680 0 Blue 1
9 PM Thu 62 62 NW 2 4920 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 62 62 N 2 4920 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 62 62 N 2 4920 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 61 61 N 1 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 60 60 N 1 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 59 59 NW 1 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 59 59 NW 1 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 59 59 NW 1 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 59 59 NW 1 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 58 58 NW 1 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 58 58 W 1 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 59 59 W 2 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 61 61 W 2 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 64 65 SW 2 5685 5680 0 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 68 70 SW 2 9680 6566 886 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 70 73 SW 2 9978 9665 3985 Blue 11
1 PM Fri 72 75 SW 2 10571 9841 4161 Blue 13
2 PM Fri 72 74 SW 2 10478 9753 4073 Blue 12
3 PM Fri 71 72 SW 2 9857 9578 3898 Blue 10
4 PM Fri 70 70 W 3 9680 6566 886 Blue 8
5 PM Fri 68 68 W 2 7362 5680 0 Blue 6
6 PM Fri 65 65 W 2 5685 5680 0 Blue 3
7 PM Fri 63 63 W 2 5356 5680 0 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 61 61 SW 2 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 60 60 SW 2 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 60 60 SW 2 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 59 59 SW 2 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 59 59 SW 2 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 59 59 SW 2 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 58 58 SW 2 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 58 58 SW 3 3930 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 58 58 S 3 3930 5680 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com