Detailed Predictions for: Harquahala
Launch Altitude (f): 5680
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

17 SEP 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 69 69 S 5 3935 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 71 71 S 6 4179 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 69 69 S 7 3935 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 71 73 S 8 4423 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 71 75 S 9 5431 5680 0 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 73 78 S 10 6451 5680 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Tue 74 80 S 10 8881 6105 425 Blue 7
1 PM Tue 77 83 S 12 11196 8461 2781 Blue 10
2 PM Tue 78 83 SW 12 11196 8461 2781 Blue 10
3 PM Tue 78 82 SW 13 10970 6755 1075 Blue 9
4 PM Tue 79 81 SW 13 10408 6431 751 Blue 8
5 PM Tue 78 79 SW 12 6778 5775 95 Blue 6
6 PM Tue 78 78 SW 12 6451 5680 0 Blue 5
7 PM Tue 77 77 SW 12 6122 5680 0 Blue 4
8 PM Tue 74 74 W 10 4893 5680 0 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 73 73 W 10 4423 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 73 73 W 9 4423 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 72 72 W 8 4301 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 71 71 W 7 4179 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 71 71 W 6 4179 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 70 70 W 3 4057 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 70 70 W 2 4057 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 70 70 W 2 4057 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 69 69 SW 1 3935 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 69 69 SW 1 3935 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 68 68 S 1 3813 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 70 71 S 2 4179 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 72 74 S 5 4893 5680 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 73 77 S 7 6122 5680 0 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 75 81 S 10 10408 6431 751 Blue 8
12 Noon Wed 76 82 S 13 10970 6755 1075 Blue 9
1 PM Wed 77 84 S 15 11459 10209 4529 Blue 11
2 PM Wed 79 85 S 16 11920 10923 5243 Blue 12
3 PM Wed 80 84 S 17 11459 10209 4529 Blue 11
4 PM Wed 81 83 S 18 11196 8461 2781 Blue 10
5 PM Wed 80 81 S 20 10408 6431 751 Blue 8
6 PM Wed 79 79 SW 20 6778 5775 95 Blue 6
7 PM Wed 77 77 SW 18 6122 5680 0 Blue 4
8 PM Wed 75 75 SW 16 5431 5680 0 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 73 73 SW 15 4423 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 72 72 SW 14 4301 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 71 71 SW 14 4179 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 71 71 SW 13 4179 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 71 71 S 12 4179 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 71 71 S 10 4179 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 70 70 S 9 4057 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 69 69 S 8 3935 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 68 68 S 7 3813 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 67 67 S 8 3690 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 67 67 S 8 3690 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 68 68 S 9 3813 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 69 71 S 12 4179 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 70 74 S 13 4893 5680 0 Blue 1
11 AM Thu 72 77 S 15 6122 5680 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Thu 73 79 S 16 6778 5775 95 Blue 6
1 PM Thu 75 81 S 17 10408 6431 751 Blue 8
2 PM Thu 76 82 S 17 10970 6755 1075 Blue 9
3 PM Thu 77 81 S 18 10408 6431 751 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 77 79 S 18 6778 5775 95 Blue 6
5 PM Thu 77 78 SW 18 6451 5680 0 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 76 76 SW 17 5789 5680 0 Blue 3
7 PM Thu 74 74 SW 17 4893 5680 0 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 72 72 SW 17 4301 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 70 70 SW 16 4057 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 69 69 SW 15 3935 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 68 68 SW 15 3813 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 67 67 SW 13 3690 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 66 66 SW 12 3568 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 66 66 S 9 3568 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 65 65 S 7 3446 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 64 64 S 5 3412 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 64 64 SE 2 3412 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 64 64 SE 1 3412 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 64 64 SE 1 3412 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 65 66 SE 2 3568 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 66 68 SE 3 3813 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 67 71 S 5 4179 5680 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 69 75 S 6 5431 5680 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Fri 71 77 S 7 6122 5680 0 Blue 4
1 PM Fri 73 80 S 8 8881 6105 425 Blue 7
2 PM Fri 74 80 S 8 8881 6105 425 Blue 7
3 PM Fri 75 79 S 8 6778 5775 95 Blue 6
4 PM Fri 76 78 SW 8 6451 5680 0 Blue 5
5 PM Fri 76 77 SW 8 6122 5680 0 Blue 4
6 PM Fri 75 75 SW 7 5431 5680 0 Blue 2
7 PM Fri 73 73 W 7 4423 5680 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 71 71 W 7 4179 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 69 69 W 7 3935 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 68 68 W 7 3813 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 67 67 NW 7 3690 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 66 66 NW 6 3568 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 65 65 NW 6 3446 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 65 65 N 6 3446 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 64 64 N 5 3412 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 63 63 N 5 3412 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 62 62 NE 5 3412 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 62 62 NE 3 3412 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 63 63 NE 3 3412 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 65 65 E 3 3446 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 67 69 E 5 3935 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 69 73 SE 5 4423 5680 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 72 77 SE 5 6122 5680 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 74 80 SE 5 8881 6105 425 Blue 7
1 PM Sat 75 81 S 6 10408 6431 751 Blue 8
2 PM Sat 77 82 S 6 10970 6755 1075 Blue 9
3 PM Sat 78 81 S 6 10408 6431 751 Blue 8
4 PM Sat 78 80 S 6 8881 6105 425 Blue 7
5 PM Sat 78 78 SW 6 6451 5680 0 Blue 5
6 PM Sat 77 77 SW 6 6122 5680 0 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 74 74 SW 5 4893 5680 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sat 72 72 W 5 4301 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 70 70 NW 3 4057 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 69 69 NW 2 3935 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 68 68 N 2 3813 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 68 68 N 1 3813 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 67 67 N 1 3690 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 67 67 NE 1 3690 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 66 66 NE 2 3568 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 65 65 E 2 3446 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 64 64 E 3 3412 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 64 64 E 3 3412 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 65 65 E 5 3446 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 67 67 SE 6 3690 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 69 70 SE 7 4057 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 71 73 SE 7 4423 5680 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 73 76 SE 8 5789 5680 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Sun 75 79 SE 9 6778 5775 95 Blue 6
1 PM Sun 77 81 SE 10 10408 6431 751 Blue 8
2 PM Sun 78 81 S 10 10408 6431 751 Blue 8
3 PM Sun 79 81 S 12 10408 6431 751 Blue 8
4 PM Sun 79 80 S 13 8881 6105 425 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 79 79 S 13 6778 5775 95 Blue 6
6 PM Sun 78 78 S 13 6451 5680 0 Blue 5
7 PM Sun 76 76 S 13 5789 5680 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sun 73 73 S 13 4423 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 71 71 S 12 4179 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 70 70 S 12 4057 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 69 69 S 10 3935 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 69 69 S 10 3935 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 68 68 S 9 3813 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 67 67 S 9 3690 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 66 66 S 8 3568 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 65 65 SE 8 3446 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 64 64 SE 8 3412 5680 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com