Detailed Predictions for: Harquahala
Launch Altitude (f): 5680
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

12Z 23 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sat 53 53 W 3 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 52 52 W 5 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 54 54 W 5 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 56 58 SW 6 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 58 62 SW 6 4651 5680 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 60 65 SW 7 7081 5680 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Sat 63 69 SW 8 9503 7480 1800 Blue 7
1 PM Sat 65 71 SW 8 10201 9044 3364 Blue 9
2 PM Sat 67 72 SW 9 10408 9439 3759 Blue 10
3 PM Sat 68 72 W 10 10408 9439 3759 Blue 10
4 PM Sat 69 71 W 12 10201 9044 3364 Blue 9
5 PM Sat 69 70 W 12 9894 8121 2441 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 69 69 W 12 9503 7480 1800 Blue 7
7 PM Sat 67 67 W 12 8247 6636 956 Blue 5
8 PM Sat 64 64 W 12 6665 5680 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sat 62 62 NW 10 4651 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 60 60 NW 10 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 59 59 NW 9 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 58 58 NW 9 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 56 56 NW 9 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 56 56 NW 10 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 56 56 NW 10 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 55 55 N 10 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 55 55 N 12 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 55 55 N 12 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 54 54 N 12 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 55 55 N 12 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 58 60 N 12 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 59 63 N 12 5582 5680 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 61 66 N 12 7522 5680 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 64 70 N 12 9894 8121 2441 Blue 8
1 PM Sun 67 73 N 13 10773 9826 4146 Blue 11
2 PM Sun 68 73 NW 14 10773 9826 4146 Blue 11
3 PM Sun 69 73 NW 14 10773 9826 4146 Blue 11
4 PM Sun 70 72 NW 15 10408 9439 3759 Blue 10
5 PM Sun 70 71 NW 16 10201 9044 3364 Blue 9
6 PM Sun 70 70 NW 16 9894 8121 2441 Blue 8
7 PM Sun 68 68 NW 16 9106 7043 1363 Blue 6
8 PM Sun 65 65 NW 15 7081 5680 0 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 64 64 NW 14 6665 5680 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 62 62 N 13 4651 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 61 61 N 12 4083 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 60 60 N 10 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 59 59 N 10 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 58 58 N 9 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 58 58 N 8 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 58 58 N 7 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 57 57 NE 7 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 58 58 NE 6 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 57 57 NE 6 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 58 58 NE 5 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 61 63 NE 5 5582 5680 0 Blue 1
10 AM Mon 62 65 NE 5 7081 5680 0 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 65 70 NE 5 9894 8121 2441 Blue 8
12 Noon Mon 68 74 NE 5 10957 10162 4482 Blue 12
1 PM Mon 70 76 NE 5 11265 10670 4990 Blue 14
2 PM Mon 72 77 NE 6 11613 10925 5245 Blue 15
3 PM Mon 73 76 N 7 11265 10670 4990 Blue 14
4 PM Mon 74 76 N 7 11265 10670 4990 Blue 14
5 PM Mon 74 74 NW 8 10957 10162 4482 Blue 12
6 PM Mon 74 74 NW 8 10957 10162 4482 Blue 12
7 PM Mon 72 72 NW 8 10408 9439 3759 Blue 10
8 PM Mon 68 68 NW 8 9106 7043 1363 Blue 6
9 PM Mon 66 66 NW 7 7522 5680 0 Blue 4
10 PM Mon 64 64 NW 7 6665 5680 0 Blue 2
11 PM Mon 63 63 N 7 5582 5680 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Tue 62 62 N 6 4651 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 60 60 N 6 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 60 60 N 6 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 60 60 N 5 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 59 59 NE 5 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 59 59 NE 5 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 59 59 E 3 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 58 58 NE 5 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 60 60 NE 5 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 62 64 NE 5 6665 5680 0 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 64 68 N 6 9106 7043 1363 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 66 71 N 6 10201 9044 3364 Blue 9
12 Noon Tue 69 75 N 6 11111 10368 4688 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 72 78 N 7 11997 11078 5398 Blue 16
2 PM Tue 74 79 NW 7 12383 11231 5551 Blue 17
3 PM Tue 75 79 NW 7 12383 11231 5551 Blue 17
4 PM Tue 76 78 NW 7 11997 11078 5398 Blue 16
5 PM Tue 76 76 W 7 11265 10670 4990 Blue 14
6 PM Tue 76 76 W 7 11265 10670 4990 Blue 14
7 PM Tue 74 74 W 7 10957 10162 4482 Blue 12
8 PM Tue 70 70 NW 6 9894 8121 2441 Blue 8
9 PM Tue 68 68 NW 6 9106 7043 1363 Blue 6
10 PM Tue 66 66 N 6 7522 5680 0 Blue 4
11 PM Tue 64 64 N 5 6665 5680 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Wed 63 63 N 5 5582 5680 0 Blue 1
1 AM Wed 62 62 N 5 4651 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 61 61 NE 3 4083 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 61 61 NE 3 4083 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 61 61 E 2 4083 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 60 60 E 2 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 60 60 E 2 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 59 59 E 2 3999 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 61 61 E 2 4083 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 64 66 NE 2 7522 5680 0 Blue 4
10 AM Wed 65 69 NE 2 9503 7480 1800 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 68 73 NE 2 10773 9826 4146 Blue 11
12 Noon Wed 71 77 NE 2 11613 10925 5245 Blue 15
1 PM Wed 74 80 N 2 12764 11522 5842 Blue 18
2 PM Wed 75 80 N 2 12764 11522 5842 Blue 18
3 PM Wed 77 81 N 3 13161 11902 6222 Blue 19
4 PM Wed 78 80 N 3 12764 11522 5842 Blue 18
5 PM Wed 78 78 NW 3 11997 11078 5398 Blue 16
6 PM Wed 78 78 NW 5 11997 11078 5398 Blue 16
7 PM Wed 76 76 NW 5 11265 10670 4990 Blue 14
8 PM Wed 73 73 N 6 10773 9826 4146 Blue 11
9 PM Wed 71 71 N 7 10201 9044 3364 Blue 9
10 PM Wed 69 69 N 7 9503 7480 1800 Blue 7
11 PM Wed 68 68 N 8 9106 7043 1363 Blue 6
12 Midnight Thu 67 67 N 9 8247 6636 956 Blue 5
1 AM Thu 65 65 NE 10 7081 5680 0 Blue 3
2 AM Thu 65 65 NE 10 7081 5680 0 Blue 3
3 AM Thu 65 65 NE 12 7081 5680 0 Blue 3
4 AM Thu 64 64 E 13 6665 5680 0 Blue 2
5 AM Thu 64 64 E 13 6665 5680 0 Blue 2
6 AM Thu 64 64 E 13 6665 5680 0 Blue 2
7 AM Thu 63 63 E 13 5582 5680 0 Blue 1
8 AM Thu 64 64 E 13 6665 5680 0 Blue 2
9 AM Thu 67 69 NE 13 9503 7480 1800 Blue 7
10 AM Thu 68 71 NE 12 10201 9044 3364 Blue 9
11 AM Thu 70 74 NE 12 10957 10162 4482 Blue 12
12 Noon Thu 72 77 N 12 11613 10925 5245 Blue 15
1 PM Thu 75 80 N 10 12764 11522 5842 Blue 18
2 PM Thu 76 80 N 10 12764 11522 5842 Blue 18
3 PM Thu 77 80 NW 9 12764 11522 5842 Blue 18
4 PM Thu 78 80 NW 9 12764 11522 5842 Blue 18
5 PM Thu 78 78 NW 9 11997 11078 5398 Blue 16
6 PM Thu 78 78 NW 8 11997 11078 5398 Blue 16
7 PM Thu 76 76 NW 9 11265 10670 4990 Blue 14
8 PM Thu 73 73 NW 9 10773 9826 4146 Blue 11
9 PM Thu 72 72 NW 9 10408 9439 3759 Blue 10
10 PM Thu 70 70 N 10 9894 8121 2441 Blue 8
11 PM Thu 69 69 N 10 9503 7480 1800 Blue 7
12 Midnight Fri 68 68 N 10 9106 7043 1363 Blue 6
1 AM Fri 67 67 NE 12 8247 6636 956 Blue 5
2 AM Fri 66 66 NE 12 7522 5680 0 Blue 4
3 AM Fri 66 66 NE 13 7522 5680 0 Blue 4
4 AM Fri 66 66 E 13 7522 5680 0 Blue 4
5 AM Fri 65 65 E 13 7081 5680 0 Blue 3

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com