Detailed Predictions for: Harquahala
Launch Altitude (f): 5680
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 77 77 W 6 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 81 81 W 6 5863 5680 0 Blue 2
8 AM Tue 79 79 SW 5 5210 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 82 84 S 6 7579 5849 169 Blue 5
10 AM Tue 83 87 S 7 9494 7511 1831 Blue 8
11 AM Tue 83 88 S 8 10736 8190 2510 Blue 9
12 Noon Tue 86 92 S 9 12741 11450 5770 White 13
1 PM Tue 87 93 S 10 12951 12951 7271 White 14
2 PM Tue 87 92 S 12 12741 11450 5770 White 13
3 PM Tue 87 91 SW 13 12530 10504 4824 White 12
4 PM Tue 87 89 SW 13 12109 8797 3117 White 10
5 PM Tue 87 88 SW 13 10736 8190 2510 Blue 9
6 PM Tue 86 86 SW 13 8875 6796 1116 Blue 7
7 PM Tue 85 85 SW 13 8269 6169 489 Blue 6
8 PM Tue 82 82 SW 12 6186 5680 0 Blue 3
9 PM Tue 81 81 SW 10 5863 5680 0 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 79 79 SW 9 5210 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 78 78 SW 9 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 77 77 SW 9 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 76 76 SW 9 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 74 74 SW 9 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 74 74 SW 9 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 73 73 SW 9 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 72 72 S 10 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 73 73 S 12 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 71 71 S 12 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 71 71 S 13 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 72 73 S 13 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 71 72 S 14 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 72 74 S 14 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 74 77 S 15 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 74 77 S 16 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 74 77 S 17 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 75 77 S 17 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 74 75 S 17 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 74 74 S 17 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 73 73 S 16 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 72 72 S 16 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 70 70 S 16 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 69 69 S 15 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 69 69 S 13 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 68 68 S 12 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 68 68 S 9 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 67 67 S 8 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 66 66 S 8 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 66 66 S 7 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 65 65 SW 6 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 65 65 W 6 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 66 66 W 5 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 67 67 SW 5 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 68 68 S 5 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 69 71 SE 5 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 70 73 SE 5 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 71 75 SE 5 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 72 77 SE 5 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 74 79 SE 6 5210 5680 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 76 80 S 6 5538 5680 0 Blue 1
3 PM Thu 78 81 SW 7 5863 5680 0 Blue 2
4 PM Thu 80 81 SW 7 5863 5680 0 Blue 2
5 PM Thu 80 80 SW 8 5538 5680 0 Blue 1
6 PM Thu 79 79 W 8 5210 5680 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 78 78 W 8 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 76 76 W 8 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 75 75 W 8 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 74 74 W 8 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 74 74 SW 8 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 73 73 SW 8 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 72 72 SW 8 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 72 72 SW 7 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 71 71 SW 7 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 70 70 SW 7 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 70 70 SW 7 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 70 70 SW 7 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 70 70 S 7 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 71 71 S 7 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 72 73 S 6 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 73 76 S 6 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 75 79 S 6 5210 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 77 81 S 6 5863 5680 0 Blue 2
1 PM Fri 78 82 S 6 6186 5680 0 Blue 3
2 PM Fri 80 84 S 6 7579 5849 169 Blue 5
3 PM Fri 81 84 SW 6 7579 5849 169 Blue 5
4 PM Fri 81 82 SW 7 6186 5680 0 Blue 3
5 PM Fri 81 81 SW 7 5863 5680 0 Blue 2
6 PM Fri 81 81 SW 7 5863 5680 0 Blue 2
7 PM Fri 79 79 SW 7 5210 5680 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 78 78 SW 7 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 76 76 SW 8 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 75 75 SW 8 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 75 75 SW 8 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 74 74 SW 8 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 73 73 SW 8 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 72 72 S 8 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 70 70 S 8 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 70 70 S 8 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 70 70 SE 7 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 71 71 SE 7 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 71 71 SE 7 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 73 73 SE 6 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 74 75 SE 6 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 77 80 SE 5 5538 5680 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 79 83 SE 5 6851 5680 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 81 86 SE 5 8875 6796 1116 Blue 7
1 PM Sat 82 87 SE 5 9494 7511 1831 Blue 8
2 PM Sat 84 88 S 5 10736 8190 2510 Blue 9
3 PM Sat 85 88 S 6 10736 8190 2510 Blue 9
4 PM Sat 85 87 S 6 9494 7511 1831 Blue 8
5 PM Sat 86 86 SW 7 8875 6796 1116 Blue 7
6 PM Sat 85 85 SW 7 8269 6169 489 Blue 6
7 PM Sat 83 83 SW 7 6851 5680 0 Blue 4
8 PM Sat 80 80 SW 7 5538 5680 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sat 78 78 SW 7 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 77 77 SW 7 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 77 77 SW 7 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 77 77 SW 7 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 76 76 SW 7 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 74 74 S 7 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 73 73 SE 7 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 72 72 E 7 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 71 71 E 7 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 71 71 NE 7 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 73 73 E 7 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 74 74 E 7 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 76 78 E 6 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 78 81 SE 6 5863 5680 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 80 85 SE 6 8269 6169 489 Blue 6
12 Noon Sun 81 86 S 6 8875 6796 1116 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 83 88 S 6 10736 8190 2510 Blue 9
2 PM Sun 85 90 S 7 12320 9427 3747 White 11
3 PM Sun 87 90 S 8 12320 9427 3747 White 11
4 PM Sun 87 89 S 8 12109 8797 3117 White 10
5 PM Sun 87 88 SW 9 10736 8190 2510 Blue 9
6 PM Sun 85 85 SW 9 8269 6169 489 Blue 6
7 PM Sun 83 83 SW 9 6851 5680 0 Blue 4
8 PM Sun 81 81 SW 9 5863 5680 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sun 79 79 SW 9 5210 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 78 78 SW 9 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 77 77 SW 8 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 77 77 SW 8 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 76 76 SW 8 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 74 74 SW 7 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 73 73 S 7 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 71 71 S 6 3615 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 70 70 S 6 3615 5680 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com