Detailed Predictions for: Harquahala
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.8133, -113.35, 5680
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Fri 50 50 NW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 49 49 NNW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 48 48 NNW 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 46 46 NNW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 47 47 NNW 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 46 46 NNW 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 44 44 N 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 46 46 NNW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 47 47 NNW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 46 47 N 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 52 52 NNW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 55 57 NW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 57 62 NNW 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 61 65 WNW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 63 67 W 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 63 66 SW 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 62 63 W 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 60 60 W 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 56 56 W 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 57 57 WNW 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 56 56 WNW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 54 54 W 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 53 53 WNW 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 52 52 WNW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 51 51 S 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 50 50 WSW 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 49 49 SSW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 48 48 SSE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 48 48 SE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 47 47 SE 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 46 46 SE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 47 47 ESE 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 48 48 ESE 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 48 49 ESE 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 53 55 SE 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 56 60 SE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 59 64 S 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 62 67 S 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 63 67 SW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 64 67 W 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 65 66 WSW 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 65 65 W 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 63 63 W 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 62 62 W 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 59 59 W 7 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 56 56 W 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 55 55 WNW 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 54 54 NW 7 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 52 52 NNW 11 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 52 52 NW 8 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 51 51 NNW 8 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 49 49 NW 11 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 48 48 NNW 8 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 47 47 NNW 9 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 45 45 NNW 11 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 45 45 NNW 10 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 45 45 NW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 43 44 NNW 16 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 47 49 NW 13 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 49 53 NW 14 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 52 57 N 28 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 54 59 SW 18 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 56 60 ESE 21 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 56 59 N 25 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 57 58 N 25 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 57 57 N 26 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 55 55 NNE 24 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 54 54 N 24 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 51 51 N 21 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 48 48 NNE 12 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 47 47 ESE 15 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 45 45 SW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com