Detailed Predictions for: Harquahala
Launch Altitude (f): 5680
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 44 44 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 44 44 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 44 44 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 44 44 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 47 47 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 48 49 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 49 50 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 49 51 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 49 51 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 50 51 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 50 50 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 50 50 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 50 50 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 48 48 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 48 48 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 48 48 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 48 48 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 49 49 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 49 49 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 49 49 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 48 48 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 48 48 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 48 48 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 48 48 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 48 48 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 47 47 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 47 47 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 47 47 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 48 48 NW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 48 49 NW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 48 50 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 49 51 NW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 50 52 NW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 50 52 NW 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 50 51 NW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 49 49 NW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 48 48 NW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 47 47 NW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 45 45 N 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 45 45 N 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 44 44 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 45 45 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 45 45 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 44 44 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 43 43 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 43 43 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 43 43 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 43 43 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 43 43 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 42 42 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 41 41 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 41 41 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 42 42 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 45 46 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 47 49 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 49 52 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 50 53 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 51 53 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 51 52 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 51 51 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 50 50 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 49 49 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 47 47 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 46 46 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 46 46 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 46 46 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 46 46 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 45 45 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 45 45 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 44 44 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 44 44 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 45 45 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 45 45 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 45 45 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 44 44 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 45 45 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 47 47 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 49 49 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 52 53 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 54 55 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 55 56 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 55 56 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 55 55 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 54 54 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 53 53 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 53 53 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 52 52 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 51 51 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 50 50 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 49 49 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 48 48 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 48 48 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 48 48 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 48 48 SE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 48 48 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 47 47 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 46 46 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 45 45 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 45 45 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 45 45 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 47 47 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 48 49 NW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 50 52 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 50 52 NW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 50 52 NW 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 49 51 NW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 49 50 NW 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 48 48 NW 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 47 47 NW 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 46 46 NW 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 45 45 NW 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 44 44 NW 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 43 43 N 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 43 43 N 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 43 43 N 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 42 42 N 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 41 41 N 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 40 40 N 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 39 39 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 39 39 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 38 38 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 37 37 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 37 37 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 37 37 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 39 39 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 41 42 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 43 45 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 45 48 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 46 49 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 47 49 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 47 48 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 47 47 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 46 46 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 45 45 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 44 44 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 43 43 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 42 42 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 42 42 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 41 41 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 41 41 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 40 40 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 39 39 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 39 39 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 38 38 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com