Detailed Predictions for: Harquahala
Launch Altitude (f): 5680
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

15 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Mon 81 81 NW 10 4350 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 81 81 N 8 4350 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 83 85 N 7 5402 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 85 89 NE 6 8076 6655 975 Blue 4
10 AM Mon 86 92 W 6 10793 8038 2358 Blue 7
11 AM Mon 88 96 SW 10 13864 11134 5454 White 11
12 Noon Mon 90 98 SW 12 14280 14280 8600 White 13
1 PM Mon 91 99 SW 14 14488 14488 8808 White 14
2 PM Mon 93 101 SW 14 14900 14900 9220 White 16
3 PM Mon 93 99 SW 14 14488 14488 8808 White 14
4 PM Mon 93 97 W 14 14072 14072 8392 White 12
5 PM Mon 93 95 W 16 13656 10708 5028 White 10
6 PM Mon 93 94 W 16 13448 9969 4289 White 9
7 PM Mon 92 92 W 15 10793 8038 2358 Blue 7
8 PM Mon 91 91 W 15 10143 7701 2021 Blue 6
9 PM Mon 88 88 W 14 7735 5680 0 Blue 3
10 PM Mon 87 87 W 14 7391 5680 0 Blue 2
11 PM Mon 86 86 W 14 6737 5680 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Tue 85 85 W 14 5402 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 84 84 W 15 4724 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 83 83 NW 14 4431 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 83 83 NW 13 4431 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 83 83 NW 10 4431 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 83 83 W 10 4431 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 83 83 NW 9 4431 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 82 82 NE 7 4350 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 85 87 NE 7 7391 5680 0 Blue 2
9 AM Tue 87 91 E 7 10143 7701 2021 Blue 6
10 AM Tue 88 94 S 9 13448 9969 4289 White 9
11 AM Tue 90 98 S 14 14280 14280 8600 White 13
12 Noon Tue 91 100 S 17 14694 14694 9014 White 15
1 PM Tue 92 101 S 20 14900 14900 9220 White 16
2 PM Tue 93 101 SW 21 14900 14900 9220 White 16
3 PM Tue 94 100 SW 21 14694 14694 9014 White 15
4 PM Tue 94 98 SW 21 14280 14280 8600 White 13
5 PM Tue 94 96 SW 22 13864 11134 5454 White 11
6 PM Tue 93 94 SW 22 13448 9969 4289 White 9
7 PM Tue 91 91 SW 23 10143 7701 2021 Blue 6
8 PM Tue 89 89 SW 24 8076 6655 975 Blue 4
9 PM Tue 87 87 SW 24 7391 5680 0 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 86 86 SW 23 6737 5680 0 Blue 1
11 PM Tue 85 85 SW 21 5402 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 84 84 SW 18 4724 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 83 83 SW 16 4431 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 81 81 S 15 4350 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 80 80 S 14 4350 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 79 79 S 14 4350 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 79 79 SE 14 4350 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 79 79 SE 14 4350 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 79 79 SE 15 4350 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 79 81 SE 16 4350 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 79 82 SE 17 4350 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 80 85 S 18 5402 5680 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 81 88 S 20 7735 5680 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Wed 83 91 S 21 10143 7701 2021 Blue 6
1 PM Wed 85 93 S 22 13239 8921 3241 White 8
2 PM Wed 87 95 S 23 13656 10708 5028 White 10
3 PM Wed 88 94 S 24 13448 9969 4289 White 9
4 PM Wed 89 93 S 24 13239 8921 3241 White 8
5 PM Wed 89 91 SW 24 10143 7701 2021 Blue 6
6 PM Wed 88 89 SW 23 8076 6655 975 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 87 87 SW 23 7391 5680 0 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 86 86 SW 22 6737 5680 0 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 84 84 SW 21 4724 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 83 83 S 18 4431 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 81 81 S 17 4350 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 80 80 S 15 4350 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 79 79 S 14 4350 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 79 79 S 14 4350 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 79 79 S 14 4350 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 79 79 S 13 4350 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 78 78 SE 12 4350 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 78 78 E 12 4350 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 78 78 E 12 4350 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 78 79 SE 12 4350 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 79 81 SE 13 4350 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 80 83 SE 14 4431 5680 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 81 85 S 15 5402 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 82 87 S 16 7391 5680 0 Blue 2
1 PM Thu 84 89 S 16 8076 6655 975 Blue 4
2 PM Thu 86 91 S 16 10143 7701 2021 Blue 6
3 PM Thu 87 91 S 16 10143 7701 2021 Blue 6
4 PM Thu 88 91 S 16 10143 7701 2021 Blue 6
5 PM Thu 88 90 SW 15 9080 7360 1680 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 88 88 SW 15 7735 5680 0 Blue 3
7 PM Thu 87 87 SW 15 7391 5680 0 Blue 2
8 PM Thu 85 85 SW 14 5402 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 83 83 SW 14 4431 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 82 82 SW 14 4350 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 82 82 SW 13 4350 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 81 81 SW 13 4350 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 80 80 SW 12 4350 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 80 80 SW 12 4350 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 79 79 SW 10 4350 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 79 79 S 10 4350 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 79 79 SE 10 4350 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 79 79 E 10 4350 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 79 79 E 10 4350 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 80 81 SE 9 4350 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 81 84 SE 9 4724 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 82 86 SE 10 6737 5680 0 Blue 1
11 AM Fri 84 90 S 12 9080 7360 1680 Blue 5
12 Noon Fri 85 92 S 13 10793 8038 2358 Blue 7
1 PM Fri 87 94 S 14 13448 9969 4289 White 9
2 PM Fri 88 94 SW 14 13448 9969 4289 White 9
3 PM Fri 89 94 SW 15 13448 9969 4289 White 9
4 PM Fri 89 92 SW 16 10793 8038 2358 Blue 7
5 PM Fri 89 91 SW 16 10143 7701 2021 Blue 6
6 PM Fri 89 89 SW 16 8076 6655 975 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 88 88 SW 16 7735 5680 0 Blue 3
8 PM Fri 86 86 SW 15 6737 5680 0 Blue 1
9 PM Fri 84 84 SW 15 4724 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 83 83 W 15 4431 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 82 82 W 14 4350 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 81 81 W 14 4350 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 80 80 W 14 4350 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 80 80 SW 13 4350 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 79 79 S 13 4350 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 78 78 S 12 4350 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 78 78 SE 12 4350 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 78 78 E 10 4350 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 79 79 E 10 4350 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 80 81 SE 9 4350 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 81 84 S 10 4724 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 82 87 S 12 7391 5680 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 82 88 S 14 7735 5680 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Sat 83 90 S 16 9080 7360 1680 Blue 5
1 PM Sat 84 91 S 17 10143 7701 2021 Blue 6
2 PM Sat 86 92 S 17 10793 8038 2358 Blue 7
3 PM Sat 87 92 S 17 10793 8038 2358 Blue 7
4 PM Sat 88 91 S 17 10143 7701 2021 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 88 90 SW 17 9080 7360 1680 Blue 5
6 PM Sat 87 87 SW 17 7391 5680 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sat 86 86 SW 17 6737 5680 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sat 84 84 SW 17 4724 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 83 83 SW 17 4431 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 82 82 SW 18 4350 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 81 81 SW 18 4350 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 80 80 SW 18 4350 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 79 79 SW 17 4350 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 79 79 S 15 4350 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 78 78 S 14 4350 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 78 78 S 13 4350 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 77 77 SE 13 4350 5680 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com