Detailed Predictions for: Harquahala
Launch Altitude (f): 5680
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

26 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 52 52 NE 7 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 53 53 NE 7 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 53 53 NE 6 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 57 58 NE 7 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 61 62 NE 6 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 63 64 E 6 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 65 67 SW 7 4669 5680 0 Blue 2
1 PM Tue 66 67 SW 9 4669 5680 0 Blue 2
2 PM Tue 68 69 SW 10 5486 5680 0 Blue 4
3 PM Tue 68 68 SW 10 4978 5680 0 Blue 3
4 PM Tue 68 68 SW 10 4978 5680 0 Blue 3
5 PM Tue 68 68 SW 10 4978 5680 0 Blue 3
6 PM Tue 67 67 SW 10 4669 5680 0 Blue 2
7 PM Tue 66 66 SW 10 4534 5680 0 Blue 1
8 PM Tue 63 63 SW 7 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 62 62 SW 7 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 61 61 SW 8 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 61 61 S 8 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 59 59 S 8 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 59 59 SW 7 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 58 58 NE 6 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 57 57 NE 6 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 56 56 NE 6 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 56 56 NE 6 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 55 55 E 6 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 56 56 E 6 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 56 56 E 7 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 59 60 E 8 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 62 64 S 9 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 63 65 S 12 4462 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 64 64 S 13 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 65 65 S 14 4462 5680 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 66 66 S 15 4534 5680 0 Blue 1
3 PM Wed 66 66 SW 15 4534 5680 0 Blue 1
4 PM Wed 66 66 SW 15 4534 5680 0 Blue 1
5 PM Wed 66 66 SW 14 4534 5680 0 Blue 1
6 PM Wed 65 65 SW 14 4462 5680 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 64 64 SW 14 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 62 62 SW 13 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 60 60 SW 13 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 59 59 SW 13 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 57 57 SW 14 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 56 56 SW 14 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 55 55 W 14 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 54 54 W 14 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 53 53 W 13 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 52 52 W 12 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 52 52 NW 10 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 52 52 NW 10 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 52 52 NW 10 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 53 54 NW 10 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 54 56 NW 12 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 55 59 NW 13 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 57 62 W 14 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 59 65 W 15 4462 5680 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 61 66 W 16 4534 5680 0 Blue 1
2 PM Thu 62 65 W 17 4462 5680 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 63 65 W 18 4462 5680 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 63 64 W 20 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 63 63 W 21 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 62 62 W 21 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 60 60 W 20 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 58 58 W 17 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 56 56 W 16 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 55 55 W 16 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 54 54 W 17 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 53 53 W 17 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 52 52 W 16 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 52 52 NW 15 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 51 51 NW 14 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 50 50 NW 14 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 49 49 NW 14 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 49 49 NW 14 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 49 49 NW 14 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 51 52 NW 15 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 52 54 NW 15 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 54 58 NW 15 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 55 60 NW 16 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 57 63 NW 16 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 59 65 NW 17 4462 5680 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 61 67 NW 17 4669 5680 0 Blue 2
3 PM Fri 62 66 NW 18 4534 5680 0 Blue 1
4 PM Fri 63 65 NW 20 4462 5680 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 63 64 NW 21 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 62 62 NW 22 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 61 61 NW 22 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 59 59 NW 22 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 57 57 NW 22 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 56 56 NW 21 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 54 54 NW 20 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 53 53 NW 18 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 52 52 NW 17 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 51 51 N 17 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 50 50 N 17 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 49 49 N 17 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 49 49 N 17 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 49 49 N 17 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 49 49 N 17 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 50 50 N 18 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 52 54 N 18 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 54 58 N 20 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 57 62 N 20 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 59 65 N 21 4462 5680 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 61 67 N 22 4669 5680 0 Blue 2
2 PM Sat 62 67 NW 22 4669 5680 0 Blue 2
3 PM Sat 63 67 NW 23 4669 5680 0 Blue 2
4 PM Sat 63 65 NW 24 4462 5680 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 63 64 NW 25 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 62 62 NW 26 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 61 61 NW 25 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 59 59 NW 24 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 57 57 NW 23 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 56 56 NW 23 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 55 55 NW 23 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 54 54 N 23 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 53 53 N 22 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 52 52 N 20 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 51 51 N 18 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 50 50 N 17 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 49 49 N 17 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 49 49 N 17 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 49 49 N 17 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 50 51 N 18 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 52 54 N 18 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 54 58 NE 18 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 56 61 NE 20 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 58 64 E 20 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 60 66 E 21 4534 5680 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sun 62 68 E 21 4978 5680 0 Blue 3
3 PM Sun 63 67 E 22 4669 5680 0 Blue 2
4 PM Sun 64 66 E 22 4534 5680 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sun 64 65 N 22 4462 5680 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 63 63 NW 22 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 62 62 NW 21 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 60 60 NW 18 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 58 58 NW 17 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 57 57 N 16 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 56 56 N 15 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 55 55 N 14 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 54 54 N 13 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 52 52 N 12 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 51 51 N 10 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 50 50 N 10 3914 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 50 50 N 10 3914 5680 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com