Detailed Predictions for: Harquahala
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.8133, -113.35, 5680
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

2 OCT 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 70 70 WSW 5 6 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 68 68 W 5 8 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 68 68 NNW 6 9 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 67 67 NNE 5 8 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 66 66 E 5 6 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 66 66 E 5 8 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 66 66 E 5 8 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 66 66 E 5 8 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 68 68 ESE 6 9 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 69 71 ESE 5 9 5589 5680 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 71 74 SE 5 9 8506 5680 0 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 72 76 SE 6 10 9186 7371 1691 Blue 6
12 Noon Sun 74 79 SE 8 11 11103 9135 3455 White 9
1 PM Sun 75 80 SSE 8 11 11315 10591 4911 White 10
2 PM Sun 75 79 SSE 6 11 11103 9135 3455 White 9
3 PM Sun 75 78 S 6 11 10890 8798 3118 White 8
4 PM Sun 75 76 S 6 11 9186 7371 1691 Blue 6
5 PM Sun 74 74 S 5 9 8506 5680 0 Blue 4
6 PM Sun 73 73 SSW 5 9 7582 5680 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sun 71 71 SSW 4 6 5589 5680 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 70 70 WSW 5 6 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 70 70 WSW 4 5 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 69 69 SW 5 5 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 69 69 NNE 5 5 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 69 69 NE 5 6 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 68 68 ENE 5 8 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 68 68 ENE 6 9 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 67 67 E 5 8 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 66 66 ENE 8 10 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 66 66 E 9 11 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 67 67 E 9 11 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 67 67 E 8 11 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 69 69 E 9 11 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 71 73 E 8 11 7582 5680 0 Blue 3
10 AM Mon 73 76 E 6 11 9186 7371 1691 Blue 6
11 AM Mon 74 77 E 5 9 10676 8463 2783 White 7
12 Noon Mon 75 78 SE 4 9 10890 8798 3118 White 8
1 PM Mon 76 79 SSW 4 8 11103 9135 3455 White 9
2 PM Mon 76 79 WSW 4 8 11103 9135 3455 White 9
3 PM Mon 75 77 W 5 9 10676 8463 2783 White 7
4 PM Mon 74 75 NW 8 11 8846 6336 656 Blue 5
5 PM Mon 73 73 NNW 9 12 7582 5680 0 Blue 3
6 PM Mon 72 72 N 9 12 6376 5680 0 Blue 2
7 PM Mon 71 71 NNE 9 12 5589 5680 0 Blue 1
8 PM Mon 70 70 NNE 8 11 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 69 69 NNE 8 11 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 69 69 NNE 8 11 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 68 68 NNE 8 11 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 67 67 NNE 8 11 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 67 67 NE 8 11 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 66 66 NE 8 11 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 65 65 NE 8 10 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 65 65 NE 6 10 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 65 65 NE 6 9 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 66 66 NE 6 9 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 67 67 NE 6 10 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 68 68 NE 6 10 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 69 71 ENE 6 9 5589 5680 0 Blue 1
10 AM Tue 71 74 E 5 9 8506 5680 0 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 72 75 ESE 5 8 8846 6336 656 Blue 5
12 Noon Tue 74 78 SSE 5 8 10890 8798 3118 White 8
1 PM Tue 76 80 SW 5 8 11315 10591 4911 White 10
2 PM Tue 77 80 WSW 5 9 11315 10591 4911 White 10
3 PM Tue 77 79 W 6 10 11103 9135 3455 White 9
4 PM Tue 77 78 W 8 11 10890 8798 3118 White 8
5 PM Tue 76 76 W 8 12 9186 7371 1691 Blue 6
6 PM Tue 74 74 W 8 11 8506 5680 0 Blue 4
7 PM Tue 72 72 W 6 10 6376 5680 0 Blue 2
8 PM Tue 70 70 W 5 9 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 69 69 W 5 8 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 69 69 W 5 8 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 69 69 WSW 5 8 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 68 68 SSW 6 10 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 68 68 ESE 9 12 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 67 67 E 10 13 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 66 66 E 10 12 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 65 65 ENE 9 11 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 65 65 ENE 8 10 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 65 65 ENE 8 10 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 66 66 E 9 11 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 67 67 E 9 11 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 68 70 E 8 11 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 70 73 ESE 8 11 7582 5680 0 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 72 77 SE 6 11 10676 8463 2783 White 7
12 Noon Wed 74 79 SSE 6 11 11103 9135 3455 White 9
1 PM Wed 75 80 S 6 12 11315 10591 4911 White 10
2 PM Wed 76 80 SSW 6 12 11315 10591 4911 White 10
3 PM Wed 77 80 SW 6 12 11315 10591 4911 White 10
4 PM Wed 77 78 WSW 6 11 10890 8798 3118 White 8
5 PM Wed 76 76 W 6 11 9186 7371 1691 Blue 6
6 PM Wed 74 74 W 6 11 8506 5680 0 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 72 72 W 6 10 6376 5680 0 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 70 70 W 6 10 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 69 69 WNW 5 9 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 68 68 N 5 8 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 68 68 NNE 5 8 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 67 67 NE 6 9 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 67 67 NE 9 10 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 66 66 NE 10 11 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 65 65 NE 10 11 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 64 64 ENE 9 11 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 64 64 ENE 9 11 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 64 64 ENE 9 12 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 66 66 E 10 12 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 67 67 E 10 13 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 69 71 E 10 13 5589 5680 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 70 73 E 11 13 7582 5680 0 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 72 76 ESE 11 13 9186 7371 1691 Blue 6
12 Noon Thu 74 79 ESE 11 13 11103 9135 3455 White 9
1 PM Thu 75 80 ESE 10 13 11315 10591 4911 White 10
2 PM Thu 76 80 ESE 9 13 11315 10591 4911 White 10
3 PM Thu 76 79 ESE 8 13 11103 9135 3455 White 9
4 PM Thu 75 76 E 6 12 9186 7371 1691 Blue 6
5 PM Thu 74 74 E 6 12 8506 5680 0 Blue 4
6 PM Thu 72 72 E 6 12 6376 5680 0 Blue 2
7 PM Thu 71 71 ESE 8 11 5589 5680 0 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 69 69 ESE 8 11 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 68 68 E 8 11 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 67 67 E 9 11 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 67 67 E 9 11 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 67 67 E 10 13 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 66 66 ENE 11 16 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 66 66 ENE 12 17 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 66 66 ENE 12 16 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 65 65 ENE 11 14 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 65 65 ENE 11 13 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 65 65 ENE 11 14 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 66 66 E 12 16 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 67 67 E 13 18 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 68 69 E 14 19 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 70 73 E 16 20 7582 5680 0 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 71 75 E 16 20 8846 6336 656 Blue 5
12 Noon Fri 72 77 E 16 21 10676 8463 2783 White 7
1 PM Fri 73 77 E 16 21 10676 8463 2783 White 7
2 PM Fri 74 77 E 14 21 10676 8463 2783 White 7
3 PM Fri 74 76 E 13 20 9186 7371 1691 Blue 6
4 PM Fri 74 75 E 12 18 8846 6336 656 Blue 5
5 PM Fri 73 73 E 11 16 7582 5680 0 Blue 3
6 PM Fri 71 71 E 10 13 5589 5680 0 Blue 1
7 PM Fri 70 70 E 9 12 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 68 68 E 9 11 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 67 67 E 9 11 4259 5680 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 66 66 E 9 11 4259 5680 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com