Detailed Predictions for: Humbolt
Launch Altitude (f): 5100
LZ Altitude (f): 2100
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 35 35 NE 15 2940 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 35 35 NE 14 2940 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 35 35 NE 13 2940 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 35 35 NE 12 2940 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 35 36 NE 10 3244 5100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 37 39 NE 10 6570 5100 0 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 39 42 NE 9 7383 6519 1419 Blue 4
12 Noon Tue 42 45 NE 8 7518 7379 2279 Blue 7
1 PM Tue 44 47 NE 8 7746 7469 2369 Blue 9
2 PM Tue 48 50 NE 8 8622 7732 2632 Blue 12
3 PM Tue 48 49 NE 7 8400 7593 2493 Blue 11
4 PM Tue 50 50 NE 7 8622 7732 2632 Blue 12
5 PM Tue 49 49 NE 7 8400 7593 2493 Blue 11
6 PM Tue 47 47 NE 7 7746 7469 2369 Blue 9
7 PM Tue 44 44 NE 7 7473 7301 2201 Blue 6
8 PM Tue 42 42 NE 7 7383 6519 1419 Blue 4
9 PM Tue 42 42 NE 8 7383 6519 1419 Blue 4
10 PM Tue 42 42 NE 8 7383 6519 1419 Blue 4
11 PM Tue 41 41 NE 8 7319 5614 514 Blue 3
12 Midnight Wed 41 41 NE 8 7319 5614 514 Blue 3
1 AM Wed 41 41 NE 8 7319 5614 514 Blue 3
2 AM Wed 40 40 NE 8 7098 5100 0 Blue 2
3 AM Wed 40 40 NE 8 7098 5100 0 Blue 2
4 AM Wed 40 40 NE 8 7098 5100 0 Blue 2
5 AM Wed 39 39 NE 8 6570 5100 0 Blue 1
6 AM Wed 39 39 NE 8 6570 5100 0 Blue 1
7 AM Wed 39 39 NE 8 6570 5100 0 Blue 1
8 AM Wed 39 39 NE 8 6570 5100 0 Blue 1
9 AM Wed 39 39 NE 8 6570 5100 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 41 42 NE 7 7383 6519 1419 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 44 45 NE 7 7518 7379 2279 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 46 47 NE 6 7746 7469 2369 Blue 9
1 PM Wed 49 50 NE 6 8622 7732 2632 Blue 12
2 PM Wed 53 54 NE 5 8782 8657 3557 Blue 16
3 PM Wed 53 53 NE 5 8742 8617 3517 Blue 15
4 PM Wed 54 54 NE 3 8782 8657 3557 Blue 16
5 PM Wed 53 53 N 3 8742 8617 3517 Blue 15
6 PM Wed 51 51 NE 3 8662 8012 2912 Blue 13
7 PM Wed 48 48 NE 5 8050 7514 2414 Blue 10
8 PM Wed 46 46 NE 5 7606 7424 2324 Blue 8
9 PM Wed 46 46 NE 6 7606 7424 2324 Blue 8
10 PM Wed 45 45 NE 6 7518 7379 2279 Blue 7
11 PM Wed 45 45 NE 7 7518 7379 2279 Blue 7
12 Midnight Thu 45 45 NE 7 7518 7379 2279 Blue 7
1 AM Thu 44 44 NE 8 7473 7301 2201 Blue 6
2 AM Thu 44 44 NE 8 7473 7301 2201 Blue 6
3 AM Thu 44 44 NE 8 7473 7301 2201 Blue 6
4 AM Thu 43 43 NE 8 7428 7081 1981 Blue 5
5 AM Thu 43 43 NE 8 7428 7081 1981 Blue 5
6 AM Thu 42 42 NE 8 7383 6519 1419 Blue 4
7 AM Thu 42 42 E 8 7383 6519 1419 Blue 4
8 AM Thu 42 42 E 7 7383 6519 1419 Blue 4
9 AM Thu 42 43 E 7 7428 7081 1981 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 44 46 E 6 7606 7424 2324 Blue 8
11 AM Thu 47 50 E 6 8622 7732 2632 Blue 12
12 Noon Thu 49 52 E 6 8702 8358 3258 Blue 14
1 PM Thu 52 55 E 5 8823 8697 3597 Blue 17
2 PM Thu 56 58 SE 5 9005 8817 3717 Blue 20
3 PM Thu 56 57 S 3 8920 8777 3677 Blue 19
4 PM Thu 57 57 S 3 8920 8777 3677 Blue 19
5 PM Thu 56 56 SW 3 8863 8737 3637 Blue 18
6 PM Thu 54 54 S 3 8782 8657 3557 Blue 16
7 PM Thu 51 51 S 3 8662 8012 2912 Blue 13
8 PM Thu 49 49 SE 5 8400 7593 2493 Blue 11
9 PM Thu 49 49 SE 5 8400 7593 2493 Blue 11
10 PM Thu 48 48 E 6 8050 7514 2414 Blue 10
11 PM Thu 48 48 E 6 8050 7514 2414 Blue 10
12 Midnight Fri 48 48 E 6 8050 7514 2414 Blue 10
1 AM Fri 47 47 E 6 7746 7469 2369 Blue 9
2 AM Fri 47 47 E 6 7746 7469 2369 Blue 9
3 AM Fri 47 47 E 6 7746 7469 2369 Blue 9
4 AM Fri 46 46 E 6 7606 7424 2324 Blue 8
5 AM Fri 46 46 E 6 7606 7424 2324 Blue 8
6 AM Fri 45 45 E 6 7518 7379 2279 Blue 7
7 AM Fri 44 44 E 6 7473 7301 2201 Blue 6
8 AM Fri 45 45 E 5 7518 7379 2279 Blue 7
9 AM Fri 45 46 SE 5 7606 7424 2324 Blue 8
10 AM Fri 46 48 SE 5 8050 7514 2414 Blue 10
11 AM Fri 49 52 SE 5 8702 8358 3258 Blue 14
12 Noon Fri 51 54 S 5 8782 8657 3557 Blue 16
1 PM Fri 53 56 S 5 8863 8737 3637 Blue 18
2 PM Fri 56 58 S 6 9005 8817 3717 Blue 20
3 PM Fri 57 58 S 6 9005 8817 3717 Blue 20
4 PM Fri 57 57 SW 6 8920 8777 3677 Blue 19
5 PM Fri 56 56 SW 6 8863 8737 3637 Blue 18
6 PM Fri 54 54 SW 6 8782 8657 3557 Blue 16
7 PM Fri 51 51 SW 6 8662 8012 2912 Blue 13
8 PM Fri 50 50 W 6 8622 7732 2632 Blue 12
9 PM Fri 49 49 W 5 8400 7593 2493 Blue 11
10 PM Fri 49 49 W 5 8400 7593 2493 Blue 11
11 PM Fri 48 48 W 5 8050 7514 2414 Blue 10
12 Midnight Sat 48 48 NW 5 8050 7514 2414 Blue 10
1 AM Sat 48 48 N 5 8050 7514 2414 Blue 10
2 AM Sat 48 48 N 5 8050 7514 2414 Blue 10
3 AM Sat 48 48 NE 5 8050 7514 2414 Blue 10
4 AM Sat 47 47 E 5 7746 7469 2369 Blue 9
5 AM Sat 46 46 E 5 7606 7424 2324 Blue 8
6 AM Sat 46 46 E 5 7606 7424 2324 Blue 8
7 AM Sat 45 45 SE 5 7518 7379 2279 Blue 7
8 AM Sat 45 45 SE 5 7518 7379 2279 Blue 7
9 AM Sat 46 46 SE 5 7606 7424 2324 Blue 8
10 AM Sat 47 48 S 5 8050 7514 2414 Blue 10
11 AM Sat 49 51 S 5 8662 8012 2912 Blue 13
12 Noon Sat 51 53 S 5 8742 8617 3517 Blue 15
1 PM Sat 53 55 S 6 8823 8697 3597 Blue 17
2 PM Sat 55 57 S 6 8920 8777 3677 Blue 19
3 PM Sat 56 57 SW 7 8920 8777 3677 Blue 19
4 PM Sat 56 56 SW 7 8863 8737 3637 Blue 18
5 PM Sat 55 55 SW 7 8823 8697 3597 Blue 17
6 PM Sat 53 53 SW 7 8742 8617 3517 Blue 15
7 PM Sat 50 50 SW 6 8622 7732 2632 Blue 12
8 PM Sat 49 49 W 6 8400 7593 2493 Blue 11
9 PM Sat 48 48 W 5 8050 7514 2414 Blue 10
10 PM Sat 48 48 W 3 8050 7514 2414 Blue 10
11 PM Sat 47 47 NW 3 7746 7469 2369 Blue 9
12 Midnight Sun 47 47 NW 3 7746 7469 2369 Blue 9
1 AM Sun 47 47 N 3 7746 7469 2369 Blue 9
2 AM Sun 47 47 N 5 7746 7469 2369 Blue 9
3 AM Sun 47 47 NE 5 7746 7469 2369 Blue 9
4 AM Sun 46 46 E 6 7606 7424 2324 Blue 8
5 AM Sun 45 45 E 6 7518 7379 2279 Blue 7
6 AM Sun 45 45 E 6 7518 7379 2279 Blue 7
7 AM Sun 44 44 E 6 7473 7301 2201 Blue 6
8 AM Sun 44 44 SE 5 7473 7301 2201 Blue 6
9 AM Sun 45 45 SE 5 7518 7379 2279 Blue 7
10 AM Sun 46 47 SE 3 7746 7469 2369 Blue 9
11 AM Sun 48 50 S 3 8622 7732 2632 Blue 12
12 Noon Sun 50 52 S 3 8702 8358 3258 Blue 14
1 PM Sun 52 54 S 3 8782 8657 3557 Blue 16
2 PM Sun 55 57 S 3 8920 8777 3677 Blue 19
3 PM Sun 56 57 S 3 8920 8777 3677 Blue 19
4 PM Sun 57 57 S 3 8920 8777 3677 Blue 19
5 PM Sun 56 56 SW 3 8863 8737 3637 Blue 18
6 PM Sun 54 54 S 3 8782 8657 3557 Blue 16
7 PM Sun 51 51 SE 5 8662 8012 2912 Blue 13
8 PM Sun 49 49 SE 6 8400 7593 2493 Blue 11
9 PM Sun 49 49 E 6 8400 7593 2493 Blue 11
10 PM Sun 49 49 NE 7 8400 7593 2493 Blue 11
11 PM Sun 48 48 NE 7 8050 7514 2414 Blue 10
12 Midnight Mon 48 48 NE 7 8050 7514 2414 Blue 10
1 AM Mon 48 48 NE 7 8050 7514 2414 Blue 10
2 AM Mon 47 47 NE 7 7746 7469 2369 Blue 9
3 AM Mon 47 47 NE 7 7746 7469 2369 Blue 9
4 AM Mon 47 47 NE 7 7746 7469 2369 Blue 9

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com