Detailed Predictions for: Humbolt
Launch Altitude (f): 5100
LZ Altitude (f): 2100
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

19 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 45 45 E 8 3930 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 49 49 E 8 3930 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 45 45 E 8 3930 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 50 50 E 8 3930 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 56 57 E 7 3930 5100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 57 59 E 7 4090 5100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 60 63 E 6 5720 5152 52 Blue 3
12 Noon Sun 63 66 E 6 9526 5715 615 Blue 6
1 PM Sun 64 67 E 3 9615 5972 872 Blue 7
2 PM Sun 64 66 E 2 9526 5715 615 Blue 6
3 PM Sun 66 67 SE 2 9615 5972 872 Blue 7
4 PM Sun 65 65 SW 1 6790 5551 451 Blue 5
5 PM Sun 62 62 W 1 5554 5100 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sun 59 59 SW 1 4090 5100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 56 56 SE 1 3930 5100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 54 54 E 1 3930 5100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 53 53 E 2 3930 5100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 53 53 E 2 3930 5100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 52 52 E 3 3930 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 51 51 E 5 3930 5100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 50 50 E 5 3930 5100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 49 49 E 3 3930 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 49 49 E 3 3930 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 48 48 E 2 3930 5100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 48 48 E 2 3930 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 47 47 E 2 3930 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 47 47 E 2 3930 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 52 52 E 1 3930 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 59 59 NE 1 4090 5100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 61 62 NE 1 5554 5100 0 Blue 2
11 AM Mon 63 65 N 1 6790 5551 451 Blue 5
12 Noon Mon 66 68 N 1 9703 6744 1644 Blue 8
1 PM Mon 68 69 W 1 9791 9192 4092 Blue 9
2 PM Mon 68 69 SW 2 9791 9192 4092 Blue 9
3 PM Mon 67 68 SW 3 9703 6744 1644 Blue 8
4 PM Mon 66 66 W 3 9526 5715 615 Blue 6
5 PM Mon 64 64 W 5 6001 5386 286 Blue 4
6 PM Mon 62 62 W 3 5554 5100 0 Blue 2
7 PM Mon 59 59 W 3 4090 5100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 57 57 W 2 3930 5100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 56 56 NW 2 3930 5100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 55 55 NW 2 3930 5100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 55 55 NW 3 3930 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 55 55 N 3 3930 5100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 54 54 N 5 3930 5100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 53 53 N 5 3930 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 52 52 N 5 3930 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 51 51 N 5 3930 5100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 51 51 N 6 3930 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 52 52 NE 6 3930 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 53 53 NE 6 3930 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 56 56 NE 6 3930 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 60 60 NE 6 5167 5100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 65 66 NE 6 9526 5715 615 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 69 70 NE 6 9886 9601 4501 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 72 74 NE 6 10714 10034 4934 Blue 14
1 PM Tue 73 75 NE 6 10962 10486 5386 Blue 15
2 PM Tue 74 75 N 6 10962 10486 5386 Blue 15
3 PM Tue 74 75 N 6 10962 10486 5386 Blue 15
4 PM Tue 73 73 N 6 10597 9868 4768 Blue 13
5 PM Tue 71 71 N 7 10131 9689 4589 Blue 11
6 PM Tue 68 68 N 7 9703 6744 1644 Blue 8
7 PM Tue 66 66 N 8 9526 5715 615 Blue 6
8 PM Tue 63 63 NE 9 5720 5152 52 Blue 3
9 PM Tue 62 62 NE 9 5554 5100 0 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 61 61 NE 10 5389 5100 0 Blue 1
11 PM Tue 60 60 NE 10 5167 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 59 59 NE 10 4090 5100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 58 58 NE 9 3930 5100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 57 57 NE 8 3930 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 56 56 NE 7 3930 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 55 55 NE 6 3930 5100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 55 NE 6 3930 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 55 55 NE 6 3930 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 57 57 NE 6 3930 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 59 59 NE 6 4090 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 63 63 NE 7 5720 5152 52 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 68 69 NE 7 9791 9192 4092 Blue 9
11 AM Wed 73 75 NE 7 10962 10486 5386 Blue 15
12 Noon Wed 76 78 NE 7 12046 10913 5813 Blue 18
1 PM Wed 78 80 NE 6 13907 11562 6462 Blue 20
2 PM Wed 78 80 NE 6 13907 11562 6462 Blue 20
3 PM Wed 77 78 NE 5 12046 10913 5813 Blue 18
4 PM Wed 75 75 NE 5 10962 10486 5386 Blue 15
5 PM Wed 73 73 NE 5 10597 9868 4768 Blue 13
6 PM Wed 70 70 NE 5 9886 9601 4501 Blue 10
7 PM Wed 68 68 NE 5 9703 6744 1644 Blue 8
8 PM Wed 66 66 NE 6 9526 5715 615 Blue 6
9 PM Wed 65 65 NE 6 6790 5551 451 Blue 5
10 PM Wed 63 63 NE 7 5720 5152 52 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 63 63 NE 7 5720 5152 52 Blue 3
12 Midnight Thu 62 62 NE 7 5554 5100 0 Blue 2
1 AM Thu 61 61 NE 7 5389 5100 0 Blue 1
2 AM Thu 59 59 NE 7 4090 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 58 58 NE 7 3930 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 57 57 NE 6 3930 5100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 56 56 NE 6 3930 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 56 56 NE 5 3930 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 58 58 NE 5 3930 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 61 61 NE 5 5389 5100 0 Blue 1
9 AM Thu 65 66 NE 3 9526 5715 615 Blue 6
10 AM Thu 69 71 NE 3 10131 9689 4589 Blue 11
11 AM Thu 73 75 NE 3 10962 10486 5386 Blue 15
12 Noon Thu 76 79 NE 2 12866 11165 6065 Blue 19
1 PM Thu 78 81 N 2 14823 11954 6854 Blue 21
2 PM Thu 79 81 N 2 14823 11954 6854 Blue 21
3 PM Thu 78 79 NW 2 12866 11165 6065 Blue 19
4 PM Thu 76 76 W 2 11249 10579 5479 Blue 16
5 PM Thu 73 73 W 2 10597 9868 4768 Blue 13
6 PM Thu 70 70 W 2 9886 9601 4501 Blue 10
7 PM Thu 67 67 SW 2 9615 5972 872 Blue 7
8 PM Thu 65 65 S 2 6790 5551 451 Blue 5
9 PM Thu 64 64 S 2 6001 5386 286 Blue 4
10 PM Thu 63 63 SE 2 5720 5152 52 Blue 3
11 PM Thu 62 62 SE 2 5554 5100 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Fri 61 61 SE 2 5389 5100 0 Blue 1
1 AM Fri 60 60 SE 2 5167 5100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 58 58 S 1 3930 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 57 57 S 1 3930 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 56 56 SW 1 3930 5100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 56 56 SW 1 3930 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 56 56 SW 1 3930 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 58 58 SW 1 3930 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 60 60 SW 1 5167 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 64 64 SW 2 6001 5386 286 Blue 4
10 AM Fri 67 68 SW 2 9703 6744 1644 Blue 8
11 AM Fri 71 73 SW 2 10597 9868 4768 Blue 13
12 Noon Fri 73 76 SW 2 11249 10579 5479 Blue 16
1 PM Fri 75 78 SW 3 12046 10913 5813 Blue 18
2 PM Fri 75 77 SW 3 11651 10672 5572 Blue 17
3 PM Fri 74 75 SW 5 10962 10486 5386 Blue 15
4 PM Fri 73 73 W 5 10597 9868 4768 Blue 13
5 PM Fri 71 71 W 5 10131 9689 4589 Blue 11
6 PM Fri 68 68 W 5 9703 6744 1644 Blue 8
7 PM Fri 64 64 SW 3 6001 5386 286 Blue 4
8 PM Fri 62 62 SW 3 5554 5100 0 Blue 2
9 PM Fri 60 60 SW 2 5167 5100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 59 59 SW 2 4090 5100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 58 58 SW 2 3930 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 58 58 SW 1 3930 5100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 57 57 SW 1 3930 5100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 56 56 S 1 3930 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 55 55 S 2 3930 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 55 55 S 2 3930 5100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com