Detailed Predictions for: Humbolt
Launch Altitude (f): 5100
LZ Altitude (f): 2100
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

1 DEC 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 45 45 N 7 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 44 44 N 8 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 43 43 N 8 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 44 44 NE 8 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 48 48 N 8 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 50 51 N 7 4095 5100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 52 54 N 6 5254 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 54 57 NE 3 5937 5243 143 Blue 3
1 PM Tue 56 59 NE 6 6264 5824 724 Blue 5
2 PM Tue 57 59 N 6 6264 5824 724 Blue 5
3 PM Tue 57 58 NE 6 6095 5715 615 Blue 4
4 PM Tue 56 56 NE 8 5828 5100 0 Blue 2
5 PM Tue 52 52 NE 8 4428 5100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 49 49 NE 6 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 47 47 N 9 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 46 46 N 13 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 45 45 N 14 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 44 44 N 15 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 44 44 N 14 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 44 44 N 15 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 44 44 N 15 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 43 43 N 15 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 43 43 N 16 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 42 42 N 16 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 42 42 N 15 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 41 41 N 8 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 40 40 N 8 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 40 40 N 13 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 43 43 N 6 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 45 46 N 5 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 46 48 N 7 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 48 50 N 6 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 50 52 NE 5 4428 5100 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 51 53 NE 3 4759 5100 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 50 51 NE 6 4095 5100 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 49 49 NE 8 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 47 47 NE 12 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 46 46 NE 14 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 44 44 N 15 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 43 43 N 16 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 42 42 N 17 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 42 42 NE 17 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 42 42 NE 17 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 42 42 NE 17 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 41 41 NE 17 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 41 41 NE 17 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 40 40 NE 17 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 40 40 NE 16 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 39 39 NE 16 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 38 38 NE 16 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 38 38 NE 15 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 38 38 NE 15 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 39 39 NE 15 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 40 41 NE 14 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 42 44 NE 14 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 44 46 NE 14 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 45 47 NE 13 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 46 48 NE 13 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 46 47 NE 13 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 45 45 NE 12 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 44 44 NE 12 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 42 42 NE 13 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 40 40 NE 13 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 39 39 NE 14 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 39 39 NE 14 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 39 39 NE 13 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 39 39 NE 12 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 39 39 NE 12 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 39 39 NE 12 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 39 39 NE 12 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 39 39 NE 12 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 38 38 NE 12 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 38 38 NE 12 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 37 37 NE 10 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 37 37 NE 8 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 37 37 NE 7 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 38 38 NE 7 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 41 42 NE 7 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 43 45 NE 7 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 45 47 NE 7 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 48 50 E 7 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 49 51 E 7 4095 5100 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 49 50 NE 7 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 48 48 NE 7 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 46 46 NE 7 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 45 45 NE 8 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 43 43 NE 9 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 42 42 NE 10 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 41 41 NE 10 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 41 41 NE 10 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 41 41 NE 9 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 41 41 NE 9 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 41 41 NE 8 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 41 41 NE 8 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 41 41 NE 8 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 41 41 NE 7 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 41 41 NE 7 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 40 40 NE 7 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 39 39 NE 6 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 39 39 NE 6 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 41 41 NE 6 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 44 45 NE 6 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 47 49 NE 6 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 49 51 NE 6 4095 5100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 51 53 NE 5 4759 5100 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 52 54 E 5 5254 5100 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 52 53 NE 5 4759 5100 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 51 51 NE 5 4095 5100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 49 49 NE 6 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 48 48 NE 7 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 46 46 NE 9 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 45 45 NE 10 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 44 44 NE 10 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 44 44 NE 10 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 44 44 NE 9 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 44 44 NE 9 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 43 43 NE 9 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 43 43 NE 9 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 43 43 NE 8 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 43 43 N 8 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 43 43 N 7 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 42 42 N 7 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 41 41 NE 6 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 41 41 NE 6 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 42 42 NE 6 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 44 45 NE 6 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 47 49 NE 6 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 50 52 NE 6 4428 5100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 52 54 NE 5 5254 5100 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 54 55 E 5 5719 5100 0 Blue 1
3 PM Sun 54 55 E 5 5719 5100 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sun 52 52 E 5 4428 5100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 50 50 E 6 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 49 49 E 7 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 47 47 NE 7 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 46 46 NE 8 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 45 45 NE 8 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 44 44 NE 8 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 44 44 NE 8 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 44 44 NE 8 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 44 44 NE 8 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 44 44 NE 8 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 44 44 NE 8 4058 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 43 43 NE 7 4058 5100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com