Detailed Predictions for: Humbolt
Launch Altitude (f): 5100
LZ Altitude (f): 2100
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

26 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 51 51 NE 7 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 52 52 NE 7 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 53 53 NE 7 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 57 58 NE 6 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 61 63 E 7 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 62 64 E 6 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 66 69 SE 6 6588 5100 0 Blue 3
1 PM Tue 67 68 S 8 6103 5100 0 Blue 2
2 PM Tue 68 69 S 9 6588 5100 0 Blue 3
3 PM Tue 69 69 S 10 6588 5100 0 Blue 3
4 PM Tue 69 69 S 10 6588 5100 0 Blue 3
5 PM Tue 68 68 SW 10 6103 5100 0 Blue 2
6 PM Tue 66 66 SW 10 5097 5100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 64 64 SW 9 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 62 62 SW 8 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 60 60 SW 8 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 60 60 W 7 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 58 58 SW 6 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 58 58 SW 6 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 57 57 SW 6 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 57 57 SW 6 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 56 56 E 6 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 56 56 E 6 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 55 E 6 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 55 55 E 6 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 54 54 E 6 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 55 55 NE 5 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 58 59 SE 3 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 61 63 SE 6 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 62 63 S 7 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 64 66 S 9 5097 5100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 65 66 S 12 5097 5100 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 66 67 S 13 5606 5100 0 Blue 1
3 PM Wed 66 66 S 13 5097 5100 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 66 66 S 13 5097 5100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 65 65 SW 12 4739 5100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 64 64 SW 10 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 62 62 SW 9 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 61 61 SW 9 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 59 59 SW 8 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 58 58 SW 7 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 57 57 W 7 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 56 56 W 6 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 55 55 NW 6 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 54 54 N 6 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 53 53 NE 6 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 52 52 E 6 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 51 51 SE 6 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 51 51 S 6 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 52 52 S 5 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 54 55 S 5 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 56 58 S 5 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 58 62 S 6 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 59 65 S 8 4739 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 61 67 S 10 5606 5100 0 Blue 1
1 PM Thu 62 68 SW 13 6103 5100 0 Blue 2
2 PM Thu 64 68 SW 15 6103 5100 0 Blue 2
3 PM Thu 64 67 SW 16 5606 5100 0 Blue 1
4 PM Thu 64 65 SW 17 4739 5100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 63 63 SW 17 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 62 62 SW 17 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 60 60 SW 16 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 57 57 SW 15 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 55 55 SW 14 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 54 54 SW 13 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 53 53 W 12 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 52 52 W 10 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 51 51 W 10 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 50 50 NW 9 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 49 49 NW 9 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 48 48 NW 8 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 46 46 N 8 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 46 46 N 7 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 47 47 N 6 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 49 50 N 6 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 51 53 N 6 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 53 57 NW 7 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 56 61 W 8 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 58 64 SW 10 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 60 66 SW 12 5097 5100 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 62 67 W 13 5606 5100 0 Blue 1
3 PM Fri 63 67 W 14 5606 5100 0 Blue 1
4 PM Fri 63 65 W 14 4739 5100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 63 63 W 14 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 62 62 W 14 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 60 60 W 14 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 57 57 W 13 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 55 55 W 13 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 53 53 W 12 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 52 52 NW 10 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 51 51 NW 10 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 50 50 NW 12 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 49 49 N 12 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 48 48 N 13 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 47 47 N 13 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 45 45 N 12 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 45 45 N 12 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 46 46 N 12 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 48 49 N 10 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 50 52 N 10 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 53 57 N 10 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 55 60 NE 12 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 58 64 NE 13 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 60 66 NE 14 5097 5100 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 62 67 NE 16 5606 5100 0 Blue 1
3 PM Sat 63 67 NE 17 5606 5100 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sat 63 65 NE 18 4739 5100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 63 63 N 18 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 62 62 N 18 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 60 60 N 18 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 58 58 NW 18 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 56 56 NW 17 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 54 54 NW 16 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 53 53 N 14 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 52 52 N 13 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 51 51 N 13 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 50 50 N 14 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 49 49 N 14 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 48 48 N 14 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 46 46 N 13 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 46 46 N 13 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 47 47 N 13 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 48 49 NE 12 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 50 52 NE 12 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 53 57 NE 10 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 55 61 NE 10 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 58 64 NE 10 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 60 66 E 12 5097 5100 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 62 67 E 14 5606 5100 0 Blue 1
3 PM Sun 63 67 E 15 5606 5100 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sun 64 66 SE 16 5097 5100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 64 64 S 16 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 63 63 S 15 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 61 61 SW 14 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 58 58 SW 12 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 56 56 W 10 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 54 54 W 9 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 53 53 N 9 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 52 52 N 9 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 51 51 N 9 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 50 50 NE 9 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 49 49 NE 9 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 48 48 NE 9 4587 5100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 46 46 NE 8 4587 5100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com