Detailed Predictions for: Humbolt
Launch Altitude (f): 5100
LZ Altitude (f): 2100
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

19 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 56 56 NE 1 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 58 58 NE 1 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 56 56 NE 1 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 58 58 E 1 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 60 60 E 2 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 61 61 SE 2 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 62 63 S 5 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 64 65 S 6 4572 5100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 65 65 S 7 4572 5100 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 63 63 S 9 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 60 60 S 9 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 60 60 S 9 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 57 57 S 8 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 56 56 SE 7 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 56 56 SE 6 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 57 57 SE 6 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 56 56 SE 7 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 57 57 SE 8 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 56 56 SE 10 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 57 57 SE 13 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 58 58 S 15 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 58 58 S 17 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 58 58 S 18 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 57 57 S 21 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 57 57 S 22 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 56 56 S 23 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 48 48 S 24 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 48 48 S 25 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 46 46 S 25 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 44 44 S 25 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 43 43 S 25 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 43 43 S 26 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 43 43 S 28 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 43 43 S 29 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 43 43 S 26 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 42 42 S 24 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 42 42 S 22 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 42 42 S 20 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 43 43 S 17 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 45 45 S 15 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 46 46 S 14 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 47 47 S 14 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 47 47 S 13 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 48 48 S 12 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 48 48 S 10 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 48 48 S 10 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 48 48 S 10 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 48 48 S 12 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 47 47 S 13 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 47 47 S 13 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 46 46 S 13 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 45 45 S 12 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 43 43 S 12 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 41 41 S 12 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 40 40 S 10 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 40 40 S 10 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 41 41 S 9 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 42 42 S 9 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 41 41 S 8 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 40 40 S 8 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 39 39 S 7 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 40 40 S 7 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 40 40 S 7 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 42 42 S 6 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 44 44 SW 6 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 45 45 SW 6 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 47 47 SW 6 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 48 48 S 6 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 48 48 S 5 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 48 48 S 5 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 48 S 5 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 48 48 S 3 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 47 47 S 3 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 45 45 S 2 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 43 43 SW 2 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 42 42 SW 2 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 42 42 SW 1 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 44 45 W 1 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 45 47 W 1 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 47 49 W 2 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 48 50 W 3 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 49 50 W 5 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 48 48 W 6 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 47 47 W 6 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 46 46 W 7 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 45 45 W 7 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 45 45 W 7 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 45 45 NW 7 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 45 45 N 7 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 45 45 N 6 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 46 46 N 6 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 47 47 N 6 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 47 47 N 6 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 47 47 N 6 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 47 47 NE 6 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 47 47 NE 6 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 46 46 NE 7 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 45 45 NE 7 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 45 45 NE 7 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 45 45 NE 8 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 46 46 NE 8 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 48 49 NE 8 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 50 52 NE 8 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 53 55 NE 8 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 55 57 N 7 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 56 57 N 6 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 56 57 NW 6 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 55 55 NW 5 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 54 54 NW 5 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 52 52 NW 5 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 51 51 NW 5 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 50 50 N 6 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 50 50 N 6 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 50 50 N 7 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 50 50 NE 7 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 50 50 NE 8 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 49 49 N 8 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 49 49 N 8 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 48 48 N 8 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 48 48 N 8 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 47 47 N 8 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 47 47 N 8 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 46 46 N 8 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 46 46 N 8 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 48 48 N 8 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 50 50 N 8 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 52 53 N 8 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 55 56 N 8 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 57 58 NW 8 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 57 58 NW 8 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 57 57 W 8 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 55 55 SW 8 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 54 54 SW 8 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 52 52 SW 8 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 51 51 W 8 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 50 50 W 8 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 49 49 NW 8 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 49 49 N 7 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 50 50 N 7 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 50 50 N 7 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 51 51 N 7 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 51 51 N 7 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 50 50 N 8 3989 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 50 50 N 8 3989 5100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com