Detailed Predictions for: Humbolt
Launch Altitude (f): 5100
LZ Altitude (f): 2100
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 38 38 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 37 37 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 38 38 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 38 38 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 42 42 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 45 46 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 46 48 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 48 50 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 50 52 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 51 52 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 50 50 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 50 50 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 49 49 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 48 48 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 48 48 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 47 47 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 47 47 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 47 47 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 47 47 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 47 47 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 47 47 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 47 47 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 47 47 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 47 47 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 47 47 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 47 47 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 46 46 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 46 46 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 46 46 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 46 47 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 47 48 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 48 50 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 49 51 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 50 52 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 50 51 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 49 49 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 49 49 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 48 48 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 47 47 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 46 46 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 45 45 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 44 44 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 44 44 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 43 43 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 43 43 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 42 42 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 42 42 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 42 42 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 42 42 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 41 41 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 41 41 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 42 42 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 44 44 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 46 47 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 48 50 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 50 53 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 51 54 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 52 54 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 53 54 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 53 53 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 52 52 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 50 50 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 48 48 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 46 46 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 45 45 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 44 44 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 43 43 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 43 43 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 42 42 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 42 42 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 42 42 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 42 42 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 42 42 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 42 42 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 42 42 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 43 43 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 45 45 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 48 48 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 51 52 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 53 54 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 55 56 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 56 57 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 56 57 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 55 55 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 54 54 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 52 52 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 51 51 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 49 49 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 48 48 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 47 47 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 46 46 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 45 45 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 45 45 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 44 44 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 44 44 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 43 43 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 43 43 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 43 43 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 42 42 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 43 43 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 44 44 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 46 47 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 48 50 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 49 51 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 50 52 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 50 52 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 50 51 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 49 49 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 48 48 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 46 46 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 45 45 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 43 43 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 42 42 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 41 41 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 40 40 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 39 39 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 39 39 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 38 38 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 37 37 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 37 37 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 36 36 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 36 36 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 35 35 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 36 36 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 37 37 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 39 40 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 41 43 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 44 47 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 45 48 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 46 48 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 46 47 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 45 45 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 44 44 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 43 43 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 42 42 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 41 41 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 40 40 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 40 40 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 39 39 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 38 38 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 37 37 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 37 37 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 36 36 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 36 36 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com