Detailed Predictions for: Humbolt
Launch Altitude (f): 5100
LZ Altitude (f): 2100
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

26 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sun 51 51 S 10 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 52 53 S 13 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 54 56 S 15 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 56 60 S 17 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 57 63 S 20 5687 5100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 58 66 S 22 8268 5613 513 Blue 2
12 Noon Sun 59 67 S 23 8353 7293 2193 Blue 3
1 PM Sun 60 68 S 23 8543 7907 2807 Blue 4
2 PM Sun 61 68 S 22 8543 7907 2807 Blue 4
3 PM Sun 62 67 S 21 8353 7293 2193 Blue 3
4 PM Sun 63 66 S 21 8268 5613 513 Blue 2
5 PM Sun 63 64 S 21 7343 5100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 62 62 SW 20 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 61 61 SW 20 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 59 59 SW 18 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 57 57 SW 18 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 57 57 SW 21 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 57 57 SW 22 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 55 55 SW 23 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 55 55 SW 21 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 53 53 SW 18 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 52 52 S 16 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 51 51 S 16 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 50 50 S 16 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 50 50 S 16 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 49 49 S 16 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 48 49 S 16 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 48 50 S 16 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 49 53 S 17 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 50 56 S 18 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 51 59 SW 20 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 52 60 SW 20 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 54 61 SW 18 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 55 60 SW 17 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 56 59 SW 17 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 57 59 SW 17 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 57 57 SW 16 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 56 56 SW 15 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 54 54 SW 14 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 52 52 SW 12 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 51 51 W 9 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 51 51 W 8 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 50 50 W 6 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 49 49 W 5 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 49 49 W 3 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 48 48 W 2 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 47 47 W 1 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 46 46 W 1 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 46 46 W 2 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 48 49 W 2 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 51 53 W 3 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 54 58 W 3 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 56 62 W 5 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 57 65 SW 6 7967 5100 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Tue 59 68 SW 7 8543 7907 2807 Blue 4
1 PM Tue 61 70 SW 8 9040 8343 3243 Blue 6
2 PM Tue 63 71 SW 9 9417 8506 3406 Blue 7
3 PM Tue 64 70 SW 10 9040 8343 3243 Blue 6
4 PM Tue 65 68 SW 10 8543 7907 2807 Blue 4
5 PM Tue 65 67 SW 12 8353 7293 2193 Blue 3
6 PM Tue 65 65 SW 12 7967 5100 0 Blue 1
7 PM Tue 63 63 W 12 5687 5100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 61 61 W 10 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 59 59 W 9 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 58 58 W 8 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 58 58 W 8 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 57 57 W 7 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 56 56 W 7 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 55 55 NW 6 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 54 54 NW 6 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 53 53 N 6 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 52 52 N 6 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 52 52 N 6 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 54 55 N 6 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 56 58 NW 6 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 59 63 W 6 5687 5100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 61 67 W 6 8353 7293 2193 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 64 72 SW 6 9664 8814 3714 Blue 8
12 Noon Wed 66 75 SW 7 12587 9637 4537 Blue 11
1 PM Wed 68 76 SW 7 12961 9813 4713 Blue 12
2 PM Wed 69 76 SW 8 12961 9813 4713 Blue 12
3 PM Wed 70 75 SW 8 12587 9637 4537 Blue 11
4 PM Wed 71 74 SW 9 12208 9358 4258 Blue 10
5 PM Wed 71 73 SW 9 9842 9016 3916 Blue 9
6 PM Wed 70 70 W 9 9040 8343 3243 Blue 6
7 PM Wed 68 68 W 9 8543 7907 2807 Blue 4
8 PM Wed 66 66 W 8 8268 5613 513 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 64 64 W 8 7343 5100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 63 63 W 7 5687 5100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 62 62 W 7 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 61 61 W 6 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 60 60 W 5 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 60 60 NW 5 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 59 59 NW 3 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 58 N 3 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 56 56 N 2 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 56 56 N 2 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 58 59 N 2 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 60 62 NW 3 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 63 67 W 3 8353 7293 2193 Blue 3
10 AM Thu 65 71 SW 5 9417 8506 3406 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 68 76 SW 5 12961 9813 4713 Blue 12
12 Noon Thu 70 79 S 6 15173 12862 7762 White 15
1 PM Thu 72 81 S 7 15581 14166 9066 White 17
2 PM Thu 73 80 S 7 15377 13227 8127 White 16
3 PM Thu 74 80 SW 8 15377 13227 8127 White 16
4 PM Thu 75 78 SW 9 14968 12492 7392 White 14
5 PM Thu 75 77 SW 9 13329 12116 7016 Blue 13
6 PM Thu 74 74 SW 9 12208 9358 4258 Blue 10
7 PM Thu 72 72 SW 9 9664 8814 3714 Blue 8
8 PM Thu 69 69 W 9 8853 8259 3159 Blue 5
9 PM Thu 66 66 W 8 8268 5613 513 Blue 2
10 PM Thu 65 65 W 8 7967 5100 0 Blue 1
11 PM Thu 64 64 W 7 7343 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 63 63 W 6 5687 5100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 62 62 NW 6 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 61 61 NW 5 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 60 60 N 5 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 59 59 N 3 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 58 58 N 3 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 58 58 N 3 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 60 61 NE 3 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 62 64 E 5 7343 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 65 69 E 5 8853 8259 3159 Blue 5
10 AM Fri 67 73 SE 6 9842 9016 3916 Blue 9
11 AM Fri 69 77 S 7 13329 12116 7016 Blue 13
12 Noon Fri 71 80 S 8 15377 13227 8127 White 16
1 PM Fri 73 82 S 8 15783 15296 10196 White 18
2 PM Fri 74 81 S 9 15581 14166 9066 White 17
3 PM Fri 75 81 SW 10 15581 14166 9066 White 17
4 PM Fri 75 79 SW 10 15173 12862 7762 White 15
5 PM Fri 75 77 SW 10 13329 12116 7016 Blue 13
6 PM Fri 74 74 SW 12 12208 9358 4258 Blue 10
7 PM Fri 72 72 SW 10 9664 8814 3714 Blue 8
8 PM Fri 69 69 SW 10 8853 8259 3159 Blue 5
9 PM Fri 67 67 SW 9 8353 7293 2193 Blue 3
10 PM Fri 66 66 W 9 8268 5613 513 Blue 2
11 PM Fri 65 65 W 8 7967 5100 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sat 64 64 W 7 7343 5100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 63 63 SW 6 5687 5100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 61 61 SW 5 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 60 60 S 3 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 58 58 S 2 4793 5100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 57 57 S 2 4793 5100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com