Detailed Predictions for: Humbolt
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.9829, -111.798, 5100
LZ Altitude (f): 2100
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

2 OCT 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 70 70 SE 3 5 6488 5100 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sun 69 69 NE 3 5 5737 5100 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sun 68 68 ESE 3 4 4557 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 68 68 SE 3 4 4557 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 67 67 S 3 4 4259 5100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 66 66 E 3 4 4259 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 65 65 N 2 3 4259 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 66 66 N 2 4 4259 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 68 68 NNE 2 4 4557 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 70 72 E 3 8 8568 5711 611 Blue 4
10 AM Sun 73 76 SE 3 8 10803 8868 3768 White 8
11 AM Sun 75 80 SE 4 9 11656 11656 6556 White 12
12 Noon Sun 77 82 SSE 5 9 12077 12077 6977 White 14
1 PM Sun 77 82 SSE 5 11 12077 12077 6977 White 14
2 PM Sun 77 81 S 5 10 11867 11867 6767 White 13
3 PM Sun 77 79 SSE 5 10 11444 11412 6312 White 11
4 PM Sun 78 79 S 4 9 11444 11412 6312 White 11
5 PM Sun 76 76 SSW 4 9 10803 8868 3768 White 8
6 PM Sun 73 73 SSW 3 6 8912 6453 1353 Blue 5
7 PM Sun 72 72 WSW 4 6 8568 5711 611 Blue 4
8 PM Sun 71 71 W 5 6 7960 5100 0 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 71 71 NNW 5 6 7960 5100 0 Blue 3
10 PM Sun 70 70 NNE 5 8 6488 5100 0 Blue 2
11 PM Sun 70 70 NE 5 9 6488 5100 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Mon 69 69 NNE 5 8 5737 5100 0 Blue 1
1 AM Mon 68 68 N 5 8 4557 5100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 68 68 NNE 5 8 4557 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 67 67 NNW 5 5 4259 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 66 66 NNW 4 5 4259 5100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 66 66 N 4 6 4259 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 66 66 NNW 4 5 4259 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 66 66 NNW 4 5 4259 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 68 68 NNE 3 5 4557 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 71 73 NE 3 8 8912 6453 1353 Blue 5
10 AM Mon 73 76 E 3 6 10803 8868 3768 White 8
11 AM Mon 75 77 E 3 6 11018 9205 4105 White 9
12 Noon Mon 76 78 SE 3 8 11232 10809 5709 White 10
1 PM Mon 77 79 SSE 3 9 11444 11412 6312 White 11
2 PM Mon 77 79 S 3 10 11444 11412 6312 White 11
3 PM Mon 76 77 SE 4 12 11018 9205 4105 White 9
4 PM Mon 75 75 NE 5 13 10588 8529 3429 White 7
5 PM Mon 73 73 N 6 14 8912 6453 1353 Blue 5
6 PM Mon 71 71 N 8 14 7960 5100 0 Blue 3
7 PM Mon 69 69 NNE 8 14 5737 5100 0 Blue 1
8 PM Mon 68 68 NNE 8 13 4557 5100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 67 67 NNE 8 12 4259 5100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 67 67 NNE 6 12 4259 5100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 67 67 NNE 6 11 4259 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 67 67 NNE 6 11 4259 5100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 66 66 NNE 6 10 4259 5100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 66 66 NNE 6 10 4259 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 66 66 NNE 6 10 4259 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 65 65 NNE 5 9 4259 5100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 65 65 NNE 5 9 4259 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 65 65 NNE 5 9 4259 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 65 65 NE 4 8 4259 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 66 66 NE 4 8 4259 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 68 70 ENE 4 8 6488 5100 0 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 71 74 E 3 8 9253 7766 2666 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 73 76 ESE 3 8 10803 8868 3768 White 8
12 Noon Tue 75 78 SE 3 9 11232 10809 5709 White 10
1 PM Tue 76 79 SSW 3 9 11444 11412 6312 White 11
2 PM Tue 76 79 WSW 3 10 11444 11412 6312 White 11
3 PM Tue 76 78 WSW 3 10 11232 10809 5709 White 10
4 PM Tue 76 77 W 4 10 11018 9205 4105 White 9
5 PM Tue 75 75 W 4 10 10588 8529 3429 White 7
6 PM Tue 73 73 WNW 4 9 8912 6453 1353 Blue 5
7 PM Tue 72 72 N 5 6 8568 5711 611 Blue 4
8 PM Tue 70 70 NE 5 5 6488 5100 0 Blue 2
9 PM Tue 69 69 NE 5 5 5737 5100 0 Blue 1
10 PM Tue 69 69 NE 4 5 5737 5100 0 Blue 1
11 PM Tue 69 69 NE 4 6 5737 5100 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Wed 68 68 NE 4 6 4557 5100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 68 68 NE 5 6 4557 5100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 67 67 NE 5 6 4259 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 66 66 NE 5 6 4259 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 65 65 NE 4 5 4259 5100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 65 65 NE 4 5 4259 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 65 65 NE 4 5 4259 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 65 65 NNE 3 6 4259 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 66 66 NNE 3 6 4259 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 68 70 NE 3 6 6488 5100 0 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 71 74 E 3 8 9253 7766 2666 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 73 77 ESE 3 8 11018 9205 4105 White 9
12 Noon Wed 75 80 SSE 3 9 11656 11656 6556 White 12
1 PM Wed 76 81 SW 3 10 11867 11867 6767 White 13
2 PM Wed 76 80 WSW 3 11 11656 11656 6556 White 12
3 PM Wed 76 79 W 3 11 11444 11412 6312 White 11
4 PM Wed 75 76 WNW 4 11 10803 8868 3768 White 8
5 PM Wed 74 74 WNW 4 10 9253 7766 2666 Blue 6
6 PM Wed 72 72 NW 4 9 8568 5711 611 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 71 71 N 5 9 7960 5100 0 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 69 69 NNE 5 8 5737 5100 0 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 68 68 NNE 5 6 4557 5100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 68 68 NNE 5 6 4557 5100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 67 67 NNE 5 6 4259 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 66 66 NNE 5 6 4259 5100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 66 66 NNE 5 8 4259 5100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 65 65 NNE 5 8 4259 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 64 64 NNE 5 8 4259 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 63 63 NNE 5 6 4259 5100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 63 63 NNE 5 6 4259 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 63 63 NNE 5 6 4259 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 64 64 NE 4 8 4259 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 65 65 NE 4 8 4259 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 67 69 NE 4 8 5737 5100 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 70 73 E 3 9 8912 6453 1353 Blue 5
11 AM Thu 72 76 E 3 9 10803 8868 3768 White 8
12 Noon Thu 74 79 E 3 10 11444 11412 6312 White 11
1 PM Thu 75 80 ESE 4 11 11656 11656 6556 White 12
2 PM Thu 75 79 ESE 4 11 11444 11412 6312 White 11
3 PM Thu 75 77 ESE 4 11 11018 9205 4105 White 9
4 PM Thu 75 76 E 3 11 10803 8868 3768 White 8
5 PM Thu 74 74 E 3 10 9253 7766 2666 Blue 6
6 PM Thu 72 72 E 4 9 8568 5711 611 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 70 70 ENE 4 9 6488 5100 0 Blue 2
8 PM Thu 68 68 ENE 5 8 4557 5100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 67 67 ENE 5 8 4259 5100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 66 66 NE 5 8 4259 5100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 66 66 NE 5 8 4259 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 66 66 NE 5 8 4259 5100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 65 65 NE 5 9 4259 5100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 65 65 NE 5 9 4259 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 65 65 NE 5 9 4259 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 64 64 NNE 5 9 4259 5100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 64 64 NNE 5 9 4259 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 64 64 NE 5 9 4259 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 64 64 NE 5 9 4259 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 65 65 NE 5 10 4259 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 67 68 ENE 5 12 4557 5100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 70 73 E 6 14 8912 6453 1353 Blue 5
11 AM Fri 72 76 E 6 16 10803 8868 3768 White 8
12 Noon Fri 73 77 ESE 6 17 11018 9205 4105 White 9
1 PM Fri 73 77 ESE 8 17 11018 9205 4105 White 9
2 PM Fri 73 76 ESE 8 16 10803 8868 3768 White 8
3 PM Fri 73 75 ESE 6 14 10588 8529 3429 White 7
4 PM Fri 73 74 ESE 6 13 9253 7766 2666 Blue 6
5 PM Fri 72 72 E 5 12 8568 5711 611 Blue 4
6 PM Fri 71 71 E 5 11 7960 5100 0 Blue 3
7 PM Fri 69 69 E 5 10 5737 5100 0 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 68 68 ENE 5 9 4557 5100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 67 67 ENE 5 8 4259 5100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 66 66 ENE 5 8 4259 5100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com