Detailed Predictions for: Humbolt
Launch Altitude (f): 5100
LZ Altitude (f): 2100
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

21 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sat 78 78 S 10 6144 5100 0 Blue 3
7 AM Sat 78 78 SW 9 6144 5100 0 Blue 3
8 AM Sat 79 79 W 8 6351 5723 623 Blue 4
9 AM Sat 79 80 NW 7 6557 5929 829 Blue 5
10 AM Sat 78 80 NW 5 6557 5929 829 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 81 84 W 3 8022 6751 1651 Blue 9
12 Noon Sat 82 87 W 3 10914 8008 2908 Blue 12
1 PM Sat 84 89 W 6 13264 9778 4678 White 14
2 PM Sat 85 90 W 9 13473 10811 5711 White 15
3 PM Sat 85 89 W 13 13264 9778 4678 White 14
4 PM Sat 87 89 W 14 13264 9778 4678 White 14
5 PM Sat 87 88 W 14 11453 8152 3052 Blue 13
6 PM Sat 85 85 W 14 8167 7719 2619 Blue 10
7 PM Sat 85 85 W 13 8167 7719 2619 Blue 10
8 PM Sat 84 84 W 13 8022 6751 1651 Blue 9
9 PM Sat 82 82 W 10 7732 6341 1241 Blue 7
10 PM Sat 81 81 W 9 6763 6135 1035 Blue 6
11 PM Sat 81 81 W 7 6763 6135 1035 Blue 6
12 Midnight Sun 80 80 W 6 6557 5929 829 Blue 5
1 AM Sun 79 79 W 5 6351 5723 623 Blue 4
2 AM Sun 78 78 W 3 6144 5100 0 Blue 3
3 AM Sun 78 78 W 2 6144 5100 0 Blue 3
4 AM Sun 77 77 W 3 5936 5100 0 Blue 2
5 AM Sun 76 76 W 3 5728 5100 0 Blue 1
6 AM Sun 76 76 W 5 5728 5100 0 Blue 1
7 AM Sun 76 76 W 5 5728 5100 0 Blue 1
8 AM Sun 81 82 NW 3 7732 6341 1241 Blue 7
9 AM Sun 82 85 NW 3 8167 7719 2619 Blue 10
10 AM Sun 84 88 NW 2 11453 8152 3052 Blue 13
11 AM Sun 87 92 W 2 13893 11860 6760 White 17
12 Noon Sun 90 95 W 3 14519 14519 9419 White 20
1 PM Sun 92 97 W 5 14934 14934 9834 White 22
2 PM Sun 93 98 W 6 15143 15143 10043 White 23
3 PM Sun 94 98 W 7 15143 15143 10043 White 23
4 PM Sun 94 96 W 8 14727 14727 9627 White 21
5 PM Sun 94 95 W 9 14519 14519 9419 White 20
6 PM Sun 94 94 W 10 14310 14310 9210 White 19
7 PM Sun 92 92 W 10 13893 11860 6760 White 17
8 PM Sun 90 90 W 10 13473 10811 5711 White 15
9 PM Sun 89 89 W 9 13264 9778 4678 White 14
10 PM Sun 88 88 W 8 11453 8152 3052 Blue 13
11 PM Sun 87 87 W 6 10914 8008 2908 Blue 12
12 Midnight Mon 86 86 W 5 10059 7864 2764 Blue 11
1 AM Mon 85 85 NW 5 8167 7719 2619 Blue 10
2 AM Mon 83 83 N 5 7877 6546 1446 Blue 8
3 AM Mon 82 82 N 5 7732 6341 1241 Blue 7
4 AM Mon 80 80 N 5 6557 5929 829 Blue 5
5 AM Mon 79 79 N 5 6351 5723 623 Blue 4
6 AM Mon 79 79 NE 5 6351 5723 623 Blue 4
7 AM Mon 80 80 N 5 6557 5929 829 Blue 5
8 AM Mon 82 83 N 5 7877 6546 1446 Blue 8
9 AM Mon 85 88 NW 5 11453 8152 3052 Blue 13
10 AM Mon 88 93 W 3 14101 14101 9001 White 18
11 AM Mon 91 97 SW 3 14934 14934 9834 White 22
12 Noon Mon 93 100 SW 5 15552 15552 10452 White 25
1 PM Mon 95 102 SW 5 15956 15956 10856 White 27
2 PM Mon 96 102 SW 6 15956 15956 10856 White 27
3 PM Mon 96 101 SW 8 15754 15754 10654 White 26
4 PM Mon 97 100 W 9 15552 15552 10452 White 25
5 PM Mon 97 98 W 9 15143 15143 10043 White 23
6 PM Mon 96 96 W 10 14727 14727 9627 White 21
7 PM Mon 95 95 W 9 14519 14519 9419 White 20
8 PM Mon 93 93 W 9 14101 14101 9001 White 18
9 PM Mon 91 91 W 8 13683 11343 6243 White 16
10 PM Mon 90 90 W 7 13473 10811 5711 White 15
11 PM Mon 89 89 W 6 13264 9778 4678 White 14
12 Midnight Tue 88 88 W 5 11453 8152 3052 Blue 13
1 AM Tue 87 87 W 5 10914 8008 2908 Blue 12
2 AM Tue 85 85 NW 6 8167 7719 2619 Blue 10
3 AM Tue 83 83 NW 6 7877 6546 1446 Blue 8
4 AM Tue 82 82 N 7 7732 6341 1241 Blue 7
5 AM Tue 80 80 N 8 6557 5929 829 Blue 5
6 AM Tue 80 80 NE 8 6557 5929 829 Blue 5
7 AM Tue 82 82 NE 8 7732 6341 1241 Blue 7
8 AM Tue 85 86 E 8 10059 7864 2764 Blue 11
9 AM Tue 89 92 E 8 13893 11860 6760 White 17
10 AM Tue 93 98 SE 8 15143 15143 10043 White 23
11 AM Tue 96 102 S 8 15956 15956 10856 White 27
12 Noon Tue 99 106 S 8 16760 16760 11660 White 31
1 PM Tue 101 108 S 9 17159 17159 12059 White 33
2 PM Tue 102 108 SW 9 17159 17159 12059 White 33
3 PM Tue 102 107 SW 10 16960 16960 11860 White 32
4 PM Tue 102 105 SW 12 16559 16559 11459 White 30
5 PM Tue 102 104 W 13 16359 16359 11259 White 29
6 PM Tue 101 101 W 13 15754 15754 10654 White 26
7 PM Tue 99 99 W 12 15349 15349 10249 White 24
8 PM Tue 97 97 W 10 14934 14934 9834 White 22
9 PM Tue 95 95 W 9 14519 14519 9419 White 20
10 PM Tue 93 93 W 8 14101 14101 9001 White 18
11 PM Tue 92 92 W 7 13893 11860 6760 White 17
12 Midnight Wed 91 91 W 6 13683 11343 6243 White 16
1 AM Wed 90 90 SW 5 13473 10811 5711 White 15
2 AM Wed 89 89 SW 5 13264 9778 4678 White 14
3 AM Wed 87 87 S 3 10914 8008 2908 Blue 12
4 AM Wed 85 85 SE 3 8167 7719 2619 Blue 10
5 AM Wed 84 84 E 3 8022 6751 1651 Blue 9
6 AM Wed 83 83 E 3 7877 6546 1446 Blue 8
7 AM Wed 84 84 E 5 8022 6751 1651 Blue 9
8 AM Wed 85 86 SE 5 10059 7864 2764 Blue 11
9 AM Wed 87 89 S 5 13264 9778 4678 White 14
10 AM Wed 90 93 S 5 14101 14101 9001 White 18
11 AM Wed 93 97 S 6 14934 14934 9834 White 22
12 Noon Wed 95 100 SW 6 15552 15552 10452 White 25
1 PM Wed 96 101 SW 7 15754 15754 10654 White 26
2 PM Wed 97 101 SW 8 15754 15754 10654 White 26
3 PM Wed 98 101 SW 10 15754 15754 10654 White 26
4 PM Wed 98 100 W 12 15552 15552 10452 White 25
5 PM Wed 98 99 W 13 15349 15349 10249 White 24
6 PM Wed 97 97 W 13 14934 14934 9834 White 22
7 PM Wed 95 95 W 13 14519 14519 9419 White 20
8 PM Wed 94 94 W 13 14310 14310 9210 White 19
9 PM Wed 92 92 W 12 13893 11860 6760 White 17
10 PM Wed 91 91 W 10 13683 11343 6243 White 16
11 PM Wed 90 90 W 10 13473 10811 5711 White 15
12 Midnight Thu 89 89 W 9 13264 9778 4678 White 14
1 AM Thu 87 87 SW 8 10914 8008 2908 Blue 12
2 AM Thu 86 86 SW 7 10059 7864 2764 Blue 11
3 AM Thu 84 84 S 6 8022 6751 1651 Blue 9
4 AM Thu 82 82 S 6 7732 6341 1241 Blue 7
5 AM Thu 81 81 SE 5 6763 6135 1035 Blue 6
6 AM Thu 80 80 SE 5 6557 5929 829 Blue 5
7 AM Thu 81 81 SE 5 6763 6135 1035 Blue 6
8 AM Thu 82 83 S 6 7877 6546 1446 Blue 8
9 AM Thu 84 85 S 7 8167 7719 2619 Blue 10
10 AM Thu 86 88 S 7 11453 8152 3052 Blue 13
11 AM Thu 88 91 S 8 13683 11343 6243 White 16
12 Noon Thu 91 94 SW 9 14310 14310 9210 White 19
1 PM Thu 92 95 SW 10 14519 14519 9419 White 20
2 PM Thu 93 96 SW 12 14727 14727 9627 White 21
3 PM Thu 94 97 SW 12 14934 14934 9834 White 22
4 PM Thu 94 96 SW 13 14727 14727 9627 White 21
5 PM Thu 94 95 SW 13 14519 14519 9419 White 20
6 PM Thu 93 93 SW 14 14101 14101 9001 White 18
7 PM Thu 91 91 SW 14 13683 11343 6243 White 16
8 PM Thu 89 89 SW 14 13264 9778 4678 White 14
9 PM Thu 88 88 SW 14 11453 8152 3052 Blue 13
10 PM Thu 87 87 SW 14 10914 8008 2908 Blue 12
11 PM Thu 87 87 SW 14 10914 8008 2908 Blue 12
12 Midnight Fri 87 87 SW 13 10914 8008 2908 Blue 12
1 AM Fri 86 86 SW 13 10059 7864 2764 Blue 11
2 AM Fri 84 84 SW 12 8022 6751 1651 Blue 9
3 AM Fri 82 82 SW 10 7732 6341 1241 Blue 7
4 AM Fri 81 81 SW 9 6763 6135 1035 Blue 6
5 AM Fri 80 80 SW 8 6557 5929 829 Blue 5

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com