Detailed Predictions for: Humbolt
Launch Altitude (f): 5100
LZ Altitude (f): 2100
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

15 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Mon 77 77 N 6 4350 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 77 77 N 6 4350 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 79 81 N 5 4497 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 81 85 N 6 7480 5100 0 Blue 3
10 AM Mon 83 89 N 6 10428 7794 2694 Blue 7
11 AM Mon 86 94 SW 6 14335 14335 9235 White 12
12 Noon Mon 87 95 SW 8 14544 14544 9444 White 13
1 PM Mon 89 97 SW 10 14961 14961 9861 White 15
2 PM Mon 91 98 SW 13 15169 15169 10069 White 16
3 PM Mon 92 98 SW 14 15169 15169 10069 White 16
4 PM Mon 93 97 SW 14 14961 14961 9861 White 15
5 PM Mon 93 95 SW 15 14544 14544 9444 White 13
6 PM Mon 92 92 SW 16 13916 10262 5162 White 10
7 PM Mon 91 91 SW 16 13706 9241 4141 White 9
8 PM Mon 89 89 W 16 10428 7794 2694 Blue 7
9 PM Mon 86 86 SW 14 7825 5710 610 Blue 4
10 PM Mon 85 85 W 14 7480 5100 0 Blue 3
11 PM Mon 84 84 W 12 7035 5100 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Tue 84 84 NW 10 7035 5100 0 Blue 2
1 AM Tue 83 83 NW 9 5748 5100 0 Blue 1
2 AM Tue 82 82 N 10 4791 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 81 81 N 9 4497 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 80 80 NE 8 4350 5100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 79 79 NE 7 4350 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 79 79 NE 6 4350 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 79 79 NE 6 4350 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 82 84 NE 5 7035 5100 0 Blue 2
9 AM Tue 84 88 NE 6 9392 7452 2352 Blue 6
10 AM Tue 86 92 SE 8 13916 10262 5162 White 10
11 AM Tue 87 95 S 10 14544 14544 9444 White 13
12 Noon Tue 89 98 SW 13 15169 15169 10069 White 16
1 PM Tue 91 100 SW 15 15584 15584 10484 White 18
2 PM Tue 92 100 SW 16 15584 15584 10484 White 18
3 PM Tue 92 98 SW 17 15169 15169 10069 White 16
4 PM Tue 92 96 SW 18 14753 14753 9653 White 14
5 PM Tue 92 94 SW 18 14335 14335 9235 White 12
6 PM Tue 91 91 SW 18 13706 9241 4141 White 9
7 PM Tue 90 90 SW 18 10922 8133 3033 Blue 8
8 PM Tue 88 88 SW 18 9392 7452 2352 Blue 6
9 PM Tue 86 86 SW 18 7825 5710 610 Blue 4
10 PM Tue 85 85 SW 18 7480 5100 0 Blue 3
11 PM Tue 84 84 SW 17 7035 5100 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Wed 83 83 SW 16 5748 5100 0 Blue 1
1 AM Wed 82 82 SW 15 4791 5100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 81 81 SW 13 4497 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 80 80 SW 12 4350 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 79 79 S 9 4350 5100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 78 78 S 8 4350 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 77 77 SE 7 4350 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 77 77 S 7 4350 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 78 80 S 7 4350 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 79 82 S 8 4791 5100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 80 85 S 9 7480 5100 0 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 82 89 S 12 10428 7794 2694 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 83 91 S 13 13706 9241 4141 White 9
1 PM Wed 84 92 S 14 13916 10262 5162 White 10
2 PM Wed 86 93 SW 15 14126 10840 5740 White 11
3 PM Wed 87 92 SW 16 13916 10262 5162 White 10
4 PM Wed 88 91 SW 17 13706 9241 4141 White 9
5 PM Wed 88 90 SW 17 10922 8133 3033 Blue 8
6 PM Wed 88 88 SW 17 9392 7452 2352 Blue 6
7 PM Wed 86 86 SW 17 7825 5710 610 Blue 4
8 PM Wed 84 84 SW 17 7035 5100 0 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 82 82 SW 16 4791 5100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 81 81 SW 15 4497 5100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 80 80 SW 15 4350 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 80 80 SW 14 4350 5100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 79 79 SW 13 4350 5100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 79 79 SW 12 4350 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 78 78 SW 10 4350 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 77 77 W 9 4350 5100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 76 76 N 7 4350 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 76 76 NE 6 4350 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 76 76 E 5 4350 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 76 77 SE 5 4350 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 77 79 S 6 4350 5100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 78 81 S 7 4497 5100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 80 84 S 9 7035 5100 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Thu 82 87 SW 10 8199 6958 1858 Blue 5
1 PM Thu 84 89 SW 12 10428 7794 2694 Blue 7
2 PM Thu 85 89 SW 13 10428 7794 2694 Blue 7
3 PM Thu 86 89 SW 13 10428 7794 2694 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 87 89 SW 14 10428 7794 2694 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 87 88 SW 14 9392 7452 2352 Blue 6
6 PM Thu 86 86 SW 14 7825 5710 610 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 85 85 SW 13 7480 5100 0 Blue 3
8 PM Thu 83 83 SW 13 5748 5100 0 Blue 1
9 PM Thu 82 82 SW 12 4791 5100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 81 81 SW 13 4497 5100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 81 81 SW 14 4497 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 80 80 SW 14 4350 5100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 79 79 W 13 4350 5100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 79 79 NW 12 4350 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 78 78 N 9 4350 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 77 77 N 8 4350 5100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 76 76 NE 7 4350 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 76 76 NE 6 4350 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 76 76 E 6 4350 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 77 78 SE 6 4350 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 78 80 S 6 4350 5100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 80 83 S 7 5748 5100 0 Blue 1
11 AM Fri 81 85 SW 9 7480 5100 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Fri 83 88 SW 10 9392 7452 2352 Blue 6
1 PM Fri 84 89 SW 12 10428 7794 2694 Blue 7
2 PM Fri 85 90 SW 13 10922 8133 3033 Blue 8
3 PM Fri 86 90 SW 13 10922 8133 3033 Blue 8
4 PM Fri 87 89 SW 13 10428 7794 2694 Blue 7
5 PM Fri 87 88 SW 13 9392 7452 2352 Blue 6
6 PM Fri 87 87 SW 13 8199 6958 1858 Blue 5
7 PM Fri 86 86 SW 12 7825 5710 610 Blue 4
8 PM Fri 84 84 SW 12 7035 5100 0 Blue 2
9 PM Fri 82 82 SW 10 4791 5100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 81 81 W 10 4497 5100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 80 80 W 9 4350 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 79 79 W 9 4350 5100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 79 79 NW 9 4350 5100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 78 78 N 9 4350 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 78 78 N 9 4350 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 77 77 N 8 4350 5100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 76 76 N 7 4350 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 76 76 N 6 4350 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 76 76 NE 5 4350 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 77 78 SE 5 4350 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 78 81 S 6 4497 5100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 79 84 S 8 7035 5100 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 81 87 SW 10 8199 6958 1858 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 82 89 SW 13 10428 7794 2694 Blue 7
1 PM Sat 84 91 SW 14 13706 9241 4141 White 9
2 PM Sat 85 91 SW 15 13706 9241 4141 White 9
3 PM Sat 86 90 SW 15 10922 8133 3033 Blue 8
4 PM Sat 87 90 SW 15 10922 8133 3033 Blue 8
5 PM Sat 87 88 SW 15 9392 7452 2352 Blue 6
6 PM Sat 86 86 SW 15 7825 5710 610 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 85 85 SW 15 7480 5100 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sat 83 83 SW 14 5748 5100 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sat 81 81 SW 14 4497 5100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 80 80 W 14 4350 5100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 80 80 W 14 4350 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 79 79 W 14 4350 5100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 78 78 W 13 4350 5100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 78 78 N 12 4350 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 77 77 N 10 4350 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 77 77 NW 9 4350 5100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 76 76 SW 8 4350 5100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com