Detailed Predictions for: Humbolt
Launch Altitude (f): 5100
LZ Altitude (f): 2100
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

17 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 42 42 E 6 3009 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 41 41 E 6 2933 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 41 41 E 5 2933 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 42 42 NE 5 3009 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 45 45 NE 5 3633 5100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 49 50 NE 3 4662 5100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 53 55 NE 3 5603 5100 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Wed 56 58 NE 2 6134 5599 499 Blue 6
1 PM Wed 59 62 NW 1 6838 6302 1202 Blue 10
2 PM Wed 60 62 W 1 6838 6302 1202 Blue 10
3 PM Wed 61 62 W 1 6838 6302 1202 Blue 10
4 PM Wed 61 61 W 2 6663 6127 1027 Blue 9
5 PM Wed 59 59 SW 3 6311 5775 675 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 57 57 W 3 5957 5422 322 Blue 5
7 PM Wed 55 55 NW 2 5603 5100 0 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 53 53 N 2 5248 5100 0 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 51 51 N 3 4867 5100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 50 50 NE 6 4662 5100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 49 49 NE 7 4457 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 48 48 NE 7 4252 5100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 47 47 E 7 4046 5100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 46 46 E 7 3839 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 46 46 E 7 3839 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 45 45 E 7 3633 5100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 44 44 E 7 3425 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 43 43 E 7 3217 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 43 43 E 7 3217 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 44 44 E 7 3425 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 48 48 E 6 4252 5100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 53 54 E 5 5426 5100 0 Blue 2
11 AM Thu 58 60 E 3 6487 5951 851 Blue 8
12 Noon Thu 61 63 E 3 7163 6477 1377 Blue 11
1 PM Thu 63 65 S 3 8308 6827 1727 Blue 13
2 PM Thu 64 66 S 3 10080 7119 2019 Blue 14
3 PM Thu 64 65 S 3 8308 6827 1727 Blue 13
4 PM Thu 64 64 S 5 7746 6652 1552 Blue 12
5 PM Thu 62 62 S 5 6838 6302 1202 Blue 10
6 PM Thu 60 60 S 5 6487 5951 851 Blue 8
7 PM Thu 57 57 S 5 5957 5422 322 Blue 5
8 PM Thu 54 54 SE 5 5426 5100 0 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 52 52 SE 5 5070 5100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 50 50 SE 5 4662 5100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 49 49 SE 5 4457 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 48 48 SE 6 4252 5100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 47 47 SE 6 4046 5100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 46 46 SE 7 3839 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 45 45 S 7 3633 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 44 44 S 8 3425 5100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 44 44 S 9 3425 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 43 43 S 9 3217 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 43 43 S 9 3217 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 45 45 S 10 3633 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 49 49 S 10 4457 5100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 53 54 S 10 5426 5100 0 Blue 2
11 AM Fri 57 58 S 12 6134 5599 499 Blue 6
12 Noon Fri 60 62 S 12 6838 6302 1202 Blue 10
1 PM Fri 62 64 S 12 7746 6652 1552 Blue 12
2 PM Fri 63 64 S 13 7746 6652 1552 Blue 12
3 PM Fri 63 64 S 13 7746 6652 1552 Blue 12
4 PM Fri 63 63 S 13 7163 6477 1377 Blue 11
5 PM Fri 62 62 S 13 6838 6302 1202 Blue 10
6 PM Fri 60 60 S 13 6487 5951 851 Blue 8
7 PM Fri 58 58 S 14 6134 5599 499 Blue 6
8 PM Fri 56 56 S 14 5780 5246 146 Blue 4
9 PM Fri 54 54 S 14 5426 5100 0 Blue 2
10 PM Fri 53 53 S 14 5248 5100 0 Blue 1
11 PM Fri 52 52 S 14 5070 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 51 51 S 15 4867 5100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 50 50 S 15 4662 5100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 48 48 S 16 4252 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 47 47 S 16 4046 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 46 46 SW 16 3839 5100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 45 45 SW 17 3633 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 45 45 SW 16 3633 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 45 45 SW 16 3633 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 45 45 SW 16 3633 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 44 44 SW 15 3425 5100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 43 43 SW 15 3217 5100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 43 43 SW 15 3217 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 45 46 SW 15 3839 5100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 46 47 SW 16 4046 5100 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 47 48 SW 16 4252 5100 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 46 46 SW 17 3839 5100 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 43 43 SW 18 3217 5100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 41 41 SW 18 2933 5100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 42 42 W 17 3009 5100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 43 43 W 16 3217 5100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 44 44 W 15 3425 5100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 42 42 NW 14 3009 5100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 39 39 NW 12 2933 5100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 37 37 NW 12 2933 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 37 37 NW 12 2933 5100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 38 38 N 12 2933 5100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 38 38 N 12 2933 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 37 37 N 12 2933 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 35 35 N 13 2933 5100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 33 33 N 13 2933 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 33 33 N 13 2933 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 34 34 N 13 2933 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 35 35 N 12 2933 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 36 36 N 12 2933 5100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 38 39 N 12 2933 5100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 42 44 N 10 3425 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 46 49 N 9 4457 5100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 50 53 NW 9 5248 5100 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sun 52 54 NW 8 5426 5100 0 Blue 2
3 PM Sun 52 53 W 7 5248 5100 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sun 49 49 W 6 4457 5100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 47 47 W 5 4046 5100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 45 45 W 5 3633 5100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 44 44 NW 5 3425 5100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 43 43 NW 5 3217 5100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 41 41 N 5 2933 5100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 39 39 NE 5 2933 5100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 38 38 NE 5 2933 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 37 37 NE 6 2933 5100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 37 37 NE 6 2933 5100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 37 37 NE 6 2933 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 36 36 NE 7 2933 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 36 36 NE 7 2933 5100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 35 35 NE 7 2933 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 35 35 NE 7 2933 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 35 35 NE 6 2933 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 37 37 NE 6 2933 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 40 40 NE 6 2933 5100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 44 45 NE 5 3633 5100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 48 49 NE 5 4457 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 52 54 E 5 5426 5100 0 Blue 2
1 PM Mon 55 57 E 5 5957 5422 322 Blue 5
2 PM Mon 57 58 SE 5 6134 5599 499 Blue 6
3 PM Mon 57 58 S 5 6134 5599 499 Blue 6
4 PM Mon 55 55 SW 6 5603 5100 0 Blue 3
5 PM Mon 53 53 SW 6 5248 5100 0 Blue 1
6 PM Mon 51 51 W 6 4867 5100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 48 48 W 5 4252 5100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 46 46 NW 5 3839 5100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 45 45 N 5 3633 5100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 43 43 N 5 3217 5100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 42 42 NE 5 3009 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 41 41 NE 5 2933 5100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 40 40 NE 6 2933 5100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 40 40 NE 6 2933 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 39 39 NE 7 2933 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 39 39 NE 7 2933 5100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com