Detailed Predictions for: Miller Canyon
Launch Altitude (f): 7600
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Wed 57 57 N 3 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 56 56 N 3 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 58 59 NE 3 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 62 64 NE 3 12261 7600 0 White 2
10 AM Wed 62 66 E 3 12701 9412 1812 White 4
11 AM Wed 63 67 SE 3 12921 10820 3220 White 5
12 Noon Wed 66 71 S 3 13791 13791 6191 White 9
1 PM Wed 67 72 S 3 14006 14006 6406 White 10
2 PM Wed 68 73 SW 5 14220 14220 6620 White 11
3 PM Wed 69 72 W 5 14006 14006 6406 White 10
4 PM Wed 69 70 W 5 13576 13576 5976 White 8
5 PM Wed 68 68 W 6 13140 13140 5540 White 6
6 PM Wed 68 68 W 6 13140 13140 5540 White 6
7 PM Wed 66 66 W 6 12701 9412 1812 White 4
8 PM Wed 65 65 W 6 12481 8632 1032 White 3
9 PM Wed 63 63 W 6 9445 7600 0 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 62 62 W 6 8677 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 60 60 W 6 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 60 60 W 6 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 59 59 W 6 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 60 60 W 6 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 60 60 W 6 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 58 W 6 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 58 58 W 6 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 58 58 W 6 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 56 56 W 6 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 58 59 SW 6 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 61 63 SW 6 9445 7600 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 62 66 SW 6 12701 9412 1812 White 4
11 AM Thu 63 68 SW 6 13140 13140 5540 White 6
12 Noon Thu 65 70 SW 7 13576 13576 5976 White 8
1 PM Thu 66 72 SW 8 14006 14006 6406 White 10
2 PM Thu 67 72 SW 9 14006 14006 6406 White 10
3 PM Thu 68 71 SW 10 13791 13791 6191 White 9
4 PM Thu 67 69 SW 12 13359 13359 5759 White 7
5 PM Thu 67 67 SW 13 12921 10820 3220 White 5
6 PM Thu 66 66 SW 13 12701 9412 1812 White 4
7 PM Thu 64 64 SW 13 12261 7600 0 White 2
8 PM Thu 63 63 SW 13 9445 7600 0 Blue 1
9 PM Thu 62 62 SW 12 8677 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 60 60 SW 10 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 59 59 SW 10 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 58 58 SW 9 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 58 58 SW 9 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 59 59 SW 9 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 58 58 SW 9 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 57 57 SW 9 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 56 56 SW 9 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 56 56 SW 9 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 55 55 SW 9 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 57 58 SW 9 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 61 63 SW 10 9445 7600 0 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 61 65 SW 12 12481 8632 1032 White 3
11 AM Fri 62 68 SW 13 13140 13140 5540 White 6
12 Noon Fri 65 71 SW 14 13791 13791 6191 White 9
1 PM Fri 66 72 SW 14 14006 14006 6406 White 10
2 PM Fri 67 72 SW 14 14006 14006 6406 White 10
3 PM Fri 68 72 SW 14 14006 14006 6406 White 10
4 PM Fri 67 69 SW 14 13359 13359 5759 White 7
5 PM Fri 67 67 SW 13 12921 10820 3220 White 5
6 PM Fri 66 66 SW 12 12701 9412 1812 White 4
7 PM Fri 64 64 SW 10 12261 7600 0 White 2
8 PM Fri 63 63 SW 9 9445 7600 0 Blue 1
9 PM Fri 62 62 SW 8 8677 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 60 60 SW 7 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 59 59 SW 7 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 58 58 SW 7 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 57 57 SW 7 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 59 59 SW 7 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 58 58 SW 7 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 56 56 SW 7 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 56 56 S 7 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 56 56 S 7 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 54 54 S 7 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 57 58 S 8 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 60 62 SW 8 8677 7600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 61 65 SW 9 12481 8632 1032 White 3
11 AM Sat 62 68 SW 10 13140 13140 5540 White 6
12 Noon Sat 65 71 SW 10 13791 13791 6191 White 9
1 PM Sat 66 72 SW 10 14006 14006 6406 White 10
2 PM Sat 67 72 SW 12 14006 14006 6406 White 10
3 PM Sat 68 72 SW 12 14006 14006 6406 White 10
4 PM Sat 67 69 SW 12 13359 13359 5759 White 7
5 PM Sat 67 67 W 12 12921 10820 3220 White 5
6 PM Sat 66 66 W 12 12701 9412 1812 White 4
7 PM Sat 64 64 W 10 12261 7600 0 White 2
8 PM Sat 63 63 W 10 9445 7600 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sat 62 62 W 9 8677 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 60 60 W 8 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 59 59 W 7 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 58 58 W 6 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 57 57 W 6 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 59 59 SW 5 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 58 58 SW 5 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 56 56 SW 5 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 56 56 SW 5 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 56 56 SW 5 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 54 54 SW 5 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 56 56 S 6 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 59 60 S 6 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 60 62 S 6 8677 7600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 61 63 S 7 9445 7600 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sun 63 65 S 7 12481 8632 1032 White 3
1 PM Sun 64 66 S 7 12701 9412 1812 White 4
2 PM Sun 65 67 S 7 12921 10820 3220 White 5
3 PM Sun 66 67 S 7 12921 10820 3220 White 5
4 PM Sun 65 65 S 6 12481 8632 1032 White 3
5 PM Sun 65 65 S 6 12481 8632 1032 White 3
6 PM Sun 64 64 S 6 12261 7600 0 White 2
7 PM Sun 63 63 S 6 9445 7600 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 62 62 S 6 8677 7600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 61 61 S 7 6789 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 60 60 S 7 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 59 59 S 8 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 58 58 S 8 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 58 58 S 8 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 59 59 S 9 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 58 58 S 9 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 57 57 S 9 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 56 56 S 10 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 57 57 S 10 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 55 55 S 12 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 57 57 S 12 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 59 59 S 13 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 60 61 S 14 6789 7600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 60 62 S 15 8677 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 62 64 S 15 12261 7600 0 White 2
1 PM Mon 63 65 S 15 12481 8632 1032 White 3
2 PM Mon 64 65 S 15 12481 8632 1032 White 3
3 PM Mon 64 65 SW 15 12481 8632 1032 White 3
4 PM Mon 64 64 SW 15 12261 7600 0 White 2
5 PM Mon 64 64 SW 15 12261 7600 0 White 2
6 PM Mon 63 63 SW 15 9445 7600 0 Blue 1
7 PM Mon 62 62 SW 15 8677 7600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 61 61 SW 14 6789 7600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 60 60 SW 14 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 58 58 SW 13 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 58 58 SW 13 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 57 57 SW 13 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 57 57 SW 13 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 58 58 SW 13 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 57 57 SW 14 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 56 56 SW 14 5239 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 56 56 SW 15 5239 7600 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com