Detailed Predictions for: Miller Canyon
Launch Altitude (f): 7600
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

26 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sun 47 47 S 23 7087 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 48 49 S 25 7674 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 50 52 S 26 8432 7675 75 Blue 2
9 AM Sun 50 54 S 28 8992 8318 718 Blue 4
10 AM Sun 52 59 S 28 12597 9620 2020 Blue 9
11 AM Sun 54 62 S 29 15077 12535 4935 White 12
12 Noon Sun 57 66 S 31 15924 15467 7867 White 16
1 PM Sun 58 67 SW 31 16135 16135 8535 White 17
2 PM Sun 60 67 SW 30 16135 16135 8535 White 17
3 PM Sun 60 65 SW 29 15713 14963 7363 White 15
4 PM Sun 60 63 SW 28 15289 12922 5322 White 13
5 PM Sun 60 61 SW 26 13373 12143 4543 Blue 11
6 PM Sun 58 58 SW 25 12200 9305 1705 Blue 8
7 PM Sun 56 56 SW 23 9632 8746 1146 Blue 6
8 PM Sun 53 53 SW 22 8757 8231 631 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 51 51 SW 18 8320 7600 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 49 49 SW 16 7674 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 47 47 SW 17 7087 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 46 46 SW 17 7087 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 46 46 SW 18 7087 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 46 46 SW 20 7087 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 45 45 SW 21 7087 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 44 44 SW 21 7087 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 44 44 SW 21 7087 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 43 43 SW 21 7087 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 44 45 SW 21 7087 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 46 48 SW 21 7087 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 46 51 SW 22 8320 7600 0 Blue 1
10 AM Mon 49 56 SW 22 9632 8746 1146 Blue 6
11 AM Mon 51 59 SW 23 12597 9620 2020 Blue 9
12 Noon Mon 54 63 SW 24 15289 12922 5322 White 13
1 PM Mon 56 65 SW 24 15713 14963 7363 White 15
2 PM Mon 58 66 SW 25 15924 15467 7867 White 16
3 PM Mon 58 64 SW 25 15501 13303 5703 White 14
4 PM Mon 58 61 SW 24 13373 12143 4543 Blue 11
5 PM Mon 58 59 W 23 12597 9620 2020 Blue 9
6 PM Mon 56 56 W 22 9632 8746 1146 Blue 6
7 PM Mon 53 53 W 21 8757 8231 631 Blue 3
8 PM Mon 51 51 W 20 8320 7600 0 Blue 1
9 PM Mon 48 48 W 17 7087 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 46 46 W 16 7087 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 44 44 W 15 7087 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 42 42 W 13 7087 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 42 42 W 13 7087 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 42 42 W 12 7087 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 42 42 W 12 7087 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 40 40 W 12 7087 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 40 40 W 10 7087 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 39 39 W 10 7087 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 40 41 W 10 7087 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 43 45 SW 10 7087 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 44 49 SW 10 7674 7600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 47 53 SW 10 8757 8231 631 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 51 57 SW 10 9816 8984 1384 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 55 62 SW 12 15077 12535 4935 White 12
1 PM Tue 58 64 SW 13 15501 13303 5703 White 14
2 PM Tue 60 64 SW 14 15501 13303 5703 White 14
3 PM Tue 60 63 SW 14 15289 12922 5322 White 13
4 PM Tue 61 63 SW 15 15289 12922 5322 White 13
5 PM Tue 60 61 W 15 13373 12143 4543 Blue 11
6 PM Tue 59 59 W 16 12597 9620 2020 Blue 9
7 PM Tue 56 56 W 16 9632 8746 1146 Blue 6
8 PM Tue 54 54 W 15 8992 8318 718 Blue 4
9 PM Tue 51 51 W 15 8320 7600 0 Blue 1
10 PM Tue 49 49 W 14 7674 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 47 47 W 14 7087 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 46 46 W 13 7087 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 46 46 W 12 7087 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 46 46 W 12 7087 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 45 45 W 10 7087 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 44 44 W 10 7087 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 43 43 W 9 7087 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 43 43 W 9 7087 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 44 45 W 9 7087 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 47 49 W 9 7674 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 47 51 SW 9 8320 7600 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 51 58 SW 9 12200 9305 1705 Blue 8
11 AM Wed 54 62 S 9 15077 12535 4935 White 12
12 Noon Wed 58 67 S 10 16135 16135 8535 White 17
1 PM Wed 61 69 S 10 16553 16553 8953 White 19
2 PM Wed 63 70 S 10 16760 16760 9160 White 20
3 PM Wed 63 68 SW 10 16344 16344 8744 White 18
4 PM Wed 64 67 SW 12 16135 16135 8535 White 17
5 PM Wed 64 65 SW 12 15713 14963 7363 White 15
6 PM Wed 62 62 W 12 15077 12535 4935 White 12
7 PM Wed 59 59 W 12 12597 9620 2020 Blue 9
8 PM Wed 57 57 W 13 9816 8984 1384 Blue 7
9 PM Wed 54 54 W 13 8992 8318 718 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 53 53 W 13 8757 8231 631 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 51 51 W 13 8320 7600 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 50 50 W 13 8232 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 50 50 W 13 8232 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 49 49 W 13 7674 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 49 49 SW 12 7674 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 48 48 SW 12 7087 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 47 47 SW 12 7087 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 47 47 SW 12 7087 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 47 48 SW 12 7087 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 51 53 SW 12 8757 8231 631 Blue 3
9 AM Thu 51 56 SW 12 9632 8746 1146 Blue 6
10 AM Thu 55 62 S 13 15077 12535 4935 White 12
11 AM Thu 58 66 S 13 15924 15467 7867 White 16
12 Noon Thu 62 71 S 14 16966 16966 9366 White 21
1 PM Thu 65 74 S 14 17582 17582 9982 White 24
2 PM Thu 67 74 S 14 17582 17582 9982 White 24
3 PM Thu 67 73 SW 15 17376 17376 9776 White 23
4 PM Thu 68 71 SW 15 16966 16966 9366 White 21
5 PM Thu 68 69 SW 15 16553 16553 8953 White 19
6 PM Thu 66 66 SW 15 15924 15467 7867 White 16
7 PM Thu 63 63 SW 15 15289 12922 5322 White 13
8 PM Thu 60 60 SW 14 12988 9804 2204 Blue 10
9 PM Thu 57 57 SW 14 9816 8984 1384 Blue 7
10 PM Thu 55 55 SW 14 9327 8425 825 Blue 5
11 PM Thu 53 53 SW 13 8757 8231 631 Blue 3
12 Midnight Fri 51 51 SW 13 8320 7600 0 Blue 1
1 AM Fri 52 52 SW 13 8432 7675 75 Blue 2
2 AM Fri 51 51 SW 13 8320 7600 0 Blue 1
3 AM Fri 51 51 SW 12 8320 7600 0 Blue 1
4 AM Fri 50 50 SW 12 8232 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 49 49 SW 12 7674 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 48 48 SW 12 7087 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 49 50 S 13 8232 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 52 54 S 13 8992 8318 718 Blue 4
9 AM Fri 53 57 S 13 9816 8984 1384 Blue 7
10 AM Fri 56 63 S 14 15289 12922 5322 White 13
11 AM Fri 60 68 S 14 16344 16344 8744 White 18
12 Noon Fri 64 73 S 15 17376 17376 9776 White 23
1 PM Fri 66 75 S 15 17786 17786 10186 White 25
2 PM Fri 68 75 SW 16 17786 17786 10186 White 25
3 PM Fri 68 73 SW 16 17376 17376 9776 White 23
4 PM Fri 69 72 SW 17 17171 17171 9571 White 22
5 PM Fri 69 70 SW 17 16760 16760 9160 White 20
6 PM Fri 67 67 SW 17 16135 16135 8535 White 17
7 PM Fri 64 64 SW 16 15501 13303 5703 White 14
8 PM Fri 61 61 SW 16 13373 12143 4543 Blue 11
9 PM Fri 58 58 SW 15 12200 9305 1705 Blue 8
10 PM Fri 56 56 SW 14 9632 8746 1146 Blue 6
11 PM Fri 54 54 SW 14 8992 8318 718 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sat 52 52 SW 13 8432 7675 75 Blue 2
1 AM Sat 53 53 SW 13 8757 8231 631 Blue 3
2 AM Sat 52 52 SW 13 8432 7675 75 Blue 2
3 AM Sat 52 52 SW 13 8432 7675 75 Blue 2
4 AM Sat 51 51 SW 13 8320 7600 0 Blue 1
5 AM Sat 50 50 SW 13 8232 7600 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com