Detailed Predictions for: Miller Canyon
Launch Altitude (f): 7600
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

17 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 34 34 NE 8 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 34 34 NE 8 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 34 34 NE 8 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 35 35 NE 8 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 38 38 NE 8 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 41 42 NE 8 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 43 45 NE 8 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 44 47 NE 8 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 45 48 NE 8 7548 7600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 49 51 NE 8 10851 7600 0 Blue 2
3 PM Wed 47 48 NE 8 7548 7600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 46 46 NE 8 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 44 44 NE 8 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 40 40 NE 8 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 39 39 NE 8 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 38 38 NE 8 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 36 36 NE 8 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 36 36 E 7 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 35 35 E 7 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 36 36 E 7 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 36 36 E 8 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 36 36 E 9 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 35 35 E 9 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 35 35 E 9 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 35 35 E 9 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 35 35 E 9 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 35 35 E 8 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 36 36 E 8 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 40 40 E 8 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 43 45 E 9 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 45 48 E 9 7548 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 47 50 E 8 9951 7600 0 Blue 1
1 PM Thu 48 51 E 8 10851 7600 0 Blue 2
2 PM Thu 53 55 E 7 14102 12051 4451 Blue 6
3 PM Thu 51 52 E 6 12238 8140 540 Blue 3
4 PM Thu 50 50 E 6 9951 7600 0 Blue 1
5 PM Thu 48 48 E 6 7548 7600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 45 45 E 6 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 43 43 E 5 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 42 42 SE 5 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 41 41 SE 5 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 40 40 S 6 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 40 40 S 6 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 40 40 S 6 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 40 40 SW 7 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 40 40 SW 7 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 40 40 SW 7 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 40 40 SW 7 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 40 40 SW 7 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 40 40 SW 7 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 40 40 SW 8 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 40 40 S 9 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 45 45 S 10 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 48 49 SW 12 8148 7600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 50 52 SW 13 12238 8140 540 Blue 3
12 Noon Fri 52 55 SW 15 14102 12051 4451 Blue 6
1 PM Fri 52 55 SW 16 14102 12051 4451 Blue 6
2 PM Fri 57 59 SW 17 14648 14278 6678 Blue 10
3 PM Fri 55 56 SW 18 14320 13299 5699 Blue 7
4 PM Fri 54 54 SW 17 13876 10697 3097 Blue 5
5 PM Fri 51 51 SW 17 10851 7600 0 Blue 2
6 PM Fri 47 47 SW 17 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 44 44 SW 17 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 43 43 SW 18 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 42 42 SW 18 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 41 41 SW 20 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 40 40 S 21 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 41 41 S 23 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 41 41 SW 24 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 41 41 SW 25 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 40 40 SW 25 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 40 40 SW 25 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 40 40 SW 24 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 40 40 SW 25 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 40 40 SW 26 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 40 40 SW 28 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 40 40 SW 30 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 40 40 SW 31 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 40 41 SW 31 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 40 41 SW 31 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 40 41 SW 30 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 40 41 SW 30 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 38 38 W 28 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 38 38 W 26 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 35 35 W 25 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 32 32 W 24 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 31 31 W 23 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 30 30 W 22 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 29 29 W 21 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 28 28 W 20 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 27 27 W 18 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 28 28 W 17 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 28 28 W 16 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 28 28 W 16 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 28 28 W 15 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 27 27 W 14 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 28 28 W 14 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 27 27 W 14 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 28 28 W 14 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 28 28 NW 15 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 32 32 NW 15 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 34 35 NW 16 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 36 38 NW 16 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 37 40 NW 16 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 38 41 NW 16 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 42 44 NW 16 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 40 41 NW 16 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 39 39 NW 16 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 37 37 NW 15 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 33 33 NW 14 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 32 32 NW 12 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 31 31 NW 9 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 30 30 NW 7 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 29 29 NW 6 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 28 28 NW 5 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 29 29 N 5 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 29 29 N 5 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 29 29 NE 6 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 28 28 NE 7 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 28 28 E 9 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 28 28 E 10 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 28 28 E 10 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 29 29 E 12 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 29 29 E 12 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 34 34 E 13 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 38 39 E 13 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 40 42 E 13 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 42 45 E 13 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 43 46 NE 13 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 48 50 N 13 9951 7600 0 Blue 1
3 PM Mon 46 47 N 13 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 45 45 NW 12 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 42 42 NW 12 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 37 37 NW 12 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 35 35 NW 10 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 34 34 W 10 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 32 32 W 9 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 31 31 W 9 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 30 30 W 9 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 31 31 W 9 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 31 31 W 9 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 31 31 W 9 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 30 30 W 9 6952 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 30 30 W 9 6952 7600 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com