Detailed Predictions for: Miller Canyon
Launch Altitude (f): 7600
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

30 NOV 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Mon 34 34 SE 16 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 33 33 SE 16 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 32 32 SE 15 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 34 34 SE 14 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 38 38 SE 14 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 39 40 SE 13 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 41 43 SE 13 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 43 46 SE 12 7163 7600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 45 47 E 10 7400 7600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 46 48 E 9 7637 7600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 47 48 E 8 7637 7600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 45 45 SE 8 6924 7600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 42 42 SE 7 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 40 40 SE 7 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 38 38 E 6 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 37 37 E 6 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 36 36 NE 7 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 37 37 N 7 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 35 35 NW 8 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 35 35 NW 7 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 34 34 NW 7 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 34 34 NW 7 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 33 33 NW 7 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 33 33 NW 7 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 33 33 NW 7 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 34 34 NW 7 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 33 33 NW 6 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 38 38 NW 6 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 44 45 NW 6 6924 7600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 46 47 NW 6 7400 7600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 47 49 NW 6 7828 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 49 52 NW 7 8177 7828 228 Blue 3
1 PM Tue 51 54 NW 8 9101 8029 429 Blue 5
2 PM Tue 52 54 NW 9 9101 8029 429 Blue 5
3 PM Tue 51 52 NW 9 8177 7828 228 Blue 3
4 PM Tue 48 48 NW 10 7637 7600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 45 45 NW 10 6924 7600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 42 42 NW 10 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 40 40 NW 10 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 38 38 NW 10 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 36 36 N 10 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 35 35 N 10 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 35 35 N 9 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 34 34 NE 8 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 34 34 NE 8 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 33 33 NE 7 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 32 32 NE 8 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 32 32 E 9 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 31 31 E 12 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 31 31 E 12 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 31 31 E 12 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 33 33 E 12 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 35 36 E 10 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 37 39 SE 9 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 40 42 SE 7 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 43 46 SE 7 7163 7600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 46 49 S 6 7828 7600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 46 48 S 6 7637 7600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 46 47 SW 5 7400 7600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 44 44 W 5 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 41 41 W 5 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 38 38 W 6 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 36 36 W 7 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 35 35 W 7 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 34 34 W 8 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 34 34 W 9 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 34 34 W 9 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 33 33 W 9 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 33 33 SW 9 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 32 32 SW 9 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 32 32 SW 8 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 32 32 SW 8 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 32 32 S 8 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 31 31 S 8 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 30 30 S 8 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 30 30 SE 8 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 31 32 SE 9 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 33 34 E 9 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 35 37 E 9 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 37 40 E 10 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 39 41 E 10 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 40 42 E 10 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 38 39 E 10 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 37 37 E 10 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 35 35 E 10 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 33 33 E 12 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 32 32 E 12 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 32 32 E 13 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 31 31 E 13 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 31 31 E 14 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 31 31 E 14 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 30 30 E 15 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 30 30 E 15 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 30 30 E 15 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 30 30 E 15 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 30 30 E 15 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 29 29 E 15 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 28 28 E 15 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 28 28 E 16 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 28 28 E 16 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 29 29 E 16 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 31 32 E 16 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 33 35 E 16 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 35 37 E 15 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 37 39 E 15 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 38 39 E 14 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 37 38 E 14 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 36 36 E 13 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 35 35 E 13 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 33 33 E 13 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 32 32 E 13 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 31 31 E 13 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 31 31 E 13 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 31 31 E 13 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 31 31 E 13 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 31 31 E 13 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 31 31 E 14 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 30 30 E 14 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 30 30 E 14 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 30 30 E 15 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 30 30 E 15 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 30 30 E 14 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 30 30 E 14 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 31 31 E 13 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 32 32 E 13 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 34 35 E 12 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 36 38 E 12 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 38 40 E 12 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 41 43 E 12 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 42 44 E 12 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 42 43 E 12 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 41 41 E 12 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 39 39 E 12 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 38 38 E 12 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 36 36 E 12 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 36 36 E 12 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 35 35 E 12 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 35 35 E 12 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 34 34 E 12 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 34 34 E 12 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 34 34 E 12 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 34 34 E 12 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 33 33 E 12 6827 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 33 33 E 12 6827 7600 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com