Detailed Predictions for: Miller Canyon
Launch Altitude (f): 7600
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

27 MAY 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sun 50 50 SW 10 7162 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 51 52 SW 9 7162 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 56 58 SW 8 8845 7819 219 Blue 2
9 AM Sun 60 64 SW 8 10374 9705 2105 Blue 8
10 AM Sun 62 68 SW 8 12137 10583 2983 Blue 12
11 AM Sun 66 73 SW 9 14965 13227 5627 Blue 17
12 Noon Sun 69 77 SW 12 18413 15350 7750 Blue 21
1 PM Sun 72 80 SW 13 19621 18291 10691 Blue 24
2 PM Sun 73 79 SW 15 19109 17795 10195 Blue 23
3 PM Sun 75 80 SW 17 19621 18291 10691 Blue 24
4 PM Sun 75 78 SW 17 18755 16602 9002 Blue 22
5 PM Sun 74 75 SW 17 16996 14322 6722 Blue 19
6 PM Sun 73 73 W 17 14965 13227 5627 Blue 17
7 PM Sun 70 70 W 17 13330 11423 3823 Blue 14
8 PM Sun 66 66 W 16 10833 10129 2529 Blue 10
9 PM Sun 62 62 W 16 9932 9154 1554 Blue 6
10 PM Sun 60 60 W 15 9490 8510 910 Blue 4
11 PM Sun 58 58 W 14 8845 7819 219 Blue 2
12 Midnight Mon 57 57 W 12 8519 7600 0 Blue 1
1 AM Mon 56 56 W 12 8182 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 56 56 W 12 8182 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 55 55 W 10 7820 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 54 54 W 10 7454 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 53 53 W 9 7162 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 52 52 W 8 7162 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 53 54 W 7 7454 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 58 60 W 6 9490 8510 910 Blue 4
9 AM Mon 62 66 W 5 10833 10129 2529 Blue 10
10 AM Mon 64 70 SW 5 13330 11423 3823 Blue 14
11 AM Mon 68 75 SW 5 16996 14322 6722 Blue 19
12 Noon Mon 71 79 SW 6 19109 17795 10195 Blue 23
1 PM Mon 74 82 SW 8 21187 18965 11365 Blue 26
2 PM Mon 75 82 SW 10 21187 18965 11365 Blue 26
3 PM Mon 77 82 W 13 21187 18965 11365 Blue 26
4 PM Mon 77 80 W 14 19621 18291 10691 Blue 24
5 PM Mon 76 77 W 14 18413 15350 7750 Blue 21
6 PM Mon 75 75 W 15 16996 14322 6722 Blue 19
7 PM Mon 72 72 W 15 14438 12650 5050 Blue 16
8 PM Mon 68 68 W 15 12137 10583 2983 Blue 12
9 PM Mon 65 65 W 15 10604 9917 2317 Blue 9
10 PM Mon 62 62 W 14 9932 9154 1554 Blue 6
11 PM Mon 61 61 W 13 9719 8834 1234 Blue 5
12 Midnight Tue 60 60 W 12 9490 8510 910 Blue 4
1 AM Tue 59 59 W 10 9169 8177 577 Blue 3
2 AM Tue 59 59 W 10 9169 8177 577 Blue 3
3 AM Tue 58 58 W 10 8845 7819 219 Blue 2
4 AM Tue 57 57 W 9 8519 7600 0 Blue 1
5 AM Tue 56 56 NW 8 8182 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 55 55 NW 7 7820 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 56 56 W 6 8182 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 61 63 W 6 10146 9472 1872 Blue 7
9 AM Tue 64 68 SW 5 12137 10583 2983 Blue 12
10 AM Tue 67 72 S 5 14438 12650 5050 Blue 16
11 AM Tue 70 76 S 5 18068 14844 7244 Blue 20
12 Noon Tue 73 80 S 6 19621 18291 10691 Blue 24
1 PM Tue 75 82 S 7 21187 18965 11365 Blue 26
2 PM Tue 77 83 S 9 22661 19421 11821 Blue 27
3 PM Tue 78 83 S 10 22661 19421 11821 Blue 27
4 PM Tue 78 81 SW 13 20117 18630 11030 Blue 25
5 PM Tue 78 79 SW 15 19109 17795 10195 Blue 23
6 PM Tue 76 76 W 16 18068 14844 7244 Blue 20
7 PM Tue 74 74 W 16 15506 13784 6184 Blue 18
8 PM Tue 70 70 W 16 13330 11423 3823 Blue 14
9 PM Tue 66 66 W 16 10833 10129 2529 Blue 10
10 PM Tue 64 64 SW 15 10374 9705 2105 Blue 8
11 PM Tue 63 63 SW 15 10146 9472 1872 Blue 7
12 Midnight Wed 62 62 SW 14 9932 9154 1554 Blue 6
1 AM Wed 61 61 SW 13 9719 8834 1234 Blue 5
2 AM Wed 61 61 SW 13 9719 8834 1234 Blue 5
3 AM Wed 60 60 SW 12 9490 8510 910 Blue 4
4 AM Wed 59 59 SW 12 9169 8177 577 Blue 3
5 AM Wed 58 58 SW 10 8845 7819 219 Blue 2
6 AM Wed 57 57 SW 10 8519 7600 0 Blue 1
7 AM Wed 58 59 SW 12 9169 8177 577 Blue 3
8 AM Wed 62 64 SW 13 10374 9705 2105 Blue 8
9 AM Wed 66 70 SW 13 13330 11423 3823 Blue 14
10 AM Wed 68 74 SW 14 15506 13784 6184 Blue 18
11 AM Wed 71 79 SW 15 19109 17795 10195 Blue 23
12 Noon Wed 74 82 SW 16 21187 18965 11365 Blue 26
1 PM Wed 76 84 SW 17 23622 19914 12314 Blue 28
2 PM Wed 77 84 SW 18 23622 19914 12314 Blue 28
3 PM Wed 79 84 SW 18 23622 19914 12314 Blue 28
4 PM Wed 79 82 SW 18 21187 18965 11365 Blue 26
5 PM Wed 78 79 SW 20 19109 17795 10195 Blue 23
6 PM Wed 77 77 SW 20 18413 15350 7750 Blue 21
7 PM Wed 74 74 SW 20 15506 13784 6184 Blue 18
8 PM Wed 69 69 SW 18 12745 10811 3211 Blue 13
9 PM Wed 66 66 SW 18 10833 10129 2529 Blue 10
10 PM Wed 63 63 SW 17 10146 9472 1872 Blue 7
11 PM Wed 61 61 SW 16 9719 8834 1234 Blue 5
12 Midnight Thu 60 60 SW 16 9490 8510 910 Blue 4
1 AM Thu 60 60 SW 16 9490 8510 910 Blue 4
2 AM Thu 59 59 SW 16 9169 8177 577 Blue 3
3 AM Thu 58 58 SW 16 8845 7819 219 Blue 2
4 AM Thu 56 56 S 16 8182 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 56 56 S 16 8182 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 55 55 S 16 7820 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 56 57 S 17 8519 7600 0 Blue 1
8 AM Thu 60 62 S 17 9932 9154 1554 Blue 6
9 AM Thu 64 68 S 18 12137 10583 2983 Blue 12
10 AM Thu 66 72 S 20 14438 12650 5050 Blue 16
11 AM Thu 70 77 SW 21 18413 15350 7750 Blue 21
12 Noon Thu 72 80 SW 21 19621 18291 10691 Blue 24
1 PM Thu 75 83 SW 22 22661 19421 11821 Blue 27
2 PM Thu 76 82 SW 22 21187 18965 11365 Blue 26
3 PM Thu 78 83 SW 22 22661 19421 11821 Blue 27
4 PM Thu 78 81 SW 22 20117 18630 11030 Blue 25
5 PM Thu 77 78 SW 22 18755 16602 9002 Blue 22
6 PM Thu 76 76 SW 22 18068 14844 7244 Blue 20
7 PM Thu 73 73 SW 21 14965 13227 5627 Blue 17
8 PM Thu 68 68 SW 21 12137 10583 2983 Blue 12
9 PM Thu 64 64 SW 20 10374 9705 2105 Blue 8
10 PM Thu 62 62 SW 18 9932 9154 1554 Blue 6
11 PM Thu 60 60 SW 18 9490 8510 910 Blue 4
12 Midnight Fri 59 59 SW 17 9169 8177 577 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 58 58 SW 17 8845 7819 219 Blue 2
2 AM Fri 58 58 SW 16 8845 7819 219 Blue 2
3 AM Fri 57 57 SW 16 8519 7600 0 Blue 1
4 AM Fri 56 56 SW 16 8182 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 55 55 S 16 7820 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 54 54 S 16 7454 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 55 56 SW 17 8182 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 60 62 SW 17 9932 9154 1554 Blue 6
9 AM Fri 64 68 SW 18 12137 10583 2983 Blue 12
10 AM Fri 66 72 SW 18 14438 12650 5050 Blue 16
11 AM Fri 70 78 SW 20 18755 16602 9002 Blue 22
12 Noon Fri 73 81 SW 20 20117 18630 11030 Blue 25
1 PM Fri 76 84 SW 20 23622 19914 12314 Blue 28
2 PM Fri 78 85 SW 20 23950 20392 12792 White 29
3 PM Fri 79 84 SW 20 23622 19914 12314 Blue 28
4 PM Fri 79 82 SW 18 21187 18965 11365 Blue 26
5 PM Fri 78 79 SW 18 19109 17795 10195 Blue 23
6 PM Fri 77 77 W 17 18413 15350 7750 Blue 21
7 PM Fri 74 74 W 17 15506 13784 6184 Blue 18
8 PM Fri 69 69 W 16 12745 10811 3211 Blue 13
9 PM Fri 65 65 W 15 10604 9917 2317 Blue 9
10 PM Fri 62 62 W 14 9932 9154 1554 Blue 6
11 PM Fri 61 61 W 14 9719 8834 1234 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sat 60 60 W 13 9490 8510 910 Blue 4
1 AM Sat 59 59 SW 12 9169 8177 577 Blue 3
2 AM Sat 58 58 SW 10 8845 7819 219 Blue 2
3 AM Sat 57 57 SW 10 8519 7600 0 Blue 1
4 AM Sat 56 56 S 9 8182 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 55 55 S 8 7820 7600 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com