Detailed Predictions for: Miller Canyon
Launch Altitude (f): 7600
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

19 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 43 43 E 9 7431 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 43 43 E 8 7431 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 43 43 E 8 7431 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 47 47 E 9 7431 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 53 54 SE 8 9860 9579 1979 Blue 4
10 AM Sun 56 58 SE 8 10693 9970 2370 Blue 8
11 AM Sun 57 60 SE 7 11248 10577 2977 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 59 62 SE 6 12082 10924 3324 Blue 12
1 PM Sun 60 63 S 3 13047 11200 3600 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 61 63 S 3 13047 11200 3600 Blue 12
3 PM Sun 62 63 S 2 13047 11200 3600 Blue 12
4 PM Sun 60 60 S 2 11248 10577 2977 Blue 10
5 PM Sun 57 57 S 3 10586 9852 2252 Blue 7
6 PM Sun 53 53 S 5 9767 7600 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sun 50 50 S 6 7431 7600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 49 49 S 7 7431 7600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 47 47 S 7 7431 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 45 45 SW 6 7431 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 44 44 SW 6 7431 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 45 45 W 5 7431 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 44 44 W 6 7431 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 44 44 W 6 7431 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 43 43 W 6 7431 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 43 43 W 7 7431 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 43 43 W 7 7431 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 43 43 W 7 7431 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 43 43 W 7 7431 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 48 48 W 7 7431 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 54 55 W 6 10014 9670 2070 Blue 5
10 AM Mon 57 59 W 5 10950 10480 2880 Blue 9
11 AM Mon 58 60 W 5 11248 10577 2977 Blue 10
12 Noon Mon 60 63 W 5 13047 11200 3600 Blue 12
1 PM Mon 62 64 W 7 14136 11616 4016 Blue 13
2 PM Mon 63 65 W 9 15088 12025 4425 Blue 14
3 PM Mon 64 65 W 9 15088 12025 4425 Blue 14
4 PM Mon 62 62 W 10 12082 10924 3324 Blue 12
5 PM Mon 58 58 W 10 10693 9970 2370 Blue 8
6 PM Mon 54 54 W 10 9860 9579 1979 Blue 4
7 PM Mon 52 52 W 9 9676 7600 0 Blue 2
8 PM Mon 50 50 W 8 7431 7600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 49 49 W 8 7431 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 47 47 W 8 7431 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 46 46 W 8 7431 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 47 47 NW 8 7431 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 46 46 NW 8 7431 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 46 46 NW 8 7431 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 45 45 NW 7 7431 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 44 44 NW 7 7431 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 45 45 NW 7 7431 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 45 45 NW 7 7431 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 45 45 N 7 7431 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 49 49 N 7 7431 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 56 56 N 7 10489 9761 2161 Blue 6
10 AM Tue 58 59 NE 8 10950 10480 2880 Blue 9
11 AM Tue 60 62 NE 8 12082 10924 3324 Blue 12
12 Noon Tue 62 65 NE 8 15088 12025 4425 Blue 14
1 PM Tue 64 66 NE 8 15782 12846 5246 Blue 15
2 PM Tue 65 67 NE 8 16320 13926 6326 Blue 16
3 PM Tue 65 66 NE 8 15782 12846 5246 Blue 15
4 PM Tue 64 64 NE 8 14136 11616 4016 Blue 13
5 PM Tue 60 60 NE 8 11248 10577 2977 Blue 10
6 PM Tue 56 56 NE 8 10489 9761 2161 Blue 6
7 PM Tue 54 54 NE 9 9860 9579 1979 Blue 4
8 PM Tue 52 52 NE 10 9676 7600 0 Blue 2
9 PM Tue 50 50 NE 10 7431 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 48 48 NE 12 7431 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 47 47 E 13 7431 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 48 48 E 13 7431 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 48 48 E 14 7431 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 47 47 E 14 7431 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 46 46 E 14 7431 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 46 46 E 14 7431 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 46 46 E 14 7431 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 46 46 E 14 7431 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 46 46 E 14 7431 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 51 51 E 14 9584 7600 0 Blue 1
9 AM Wed 57 57 E 13 10586 9852 2252 Blue 7
10 AM Wed 60 61 E 13 11669 10673 3073 Blue 11
11 AM Wed 62 64 E 13 14136 11616 4016 Blue 13
12 Noon Wed 64 67 E 13 16320 13926 6326 Blue 16
1 PM Wed 66 68 E 13 16544 14872 7272 Blue 17
2 PM Wed 67 69 E 13 16733 15637 8037 Blue 18
3 PM Wed 68 69 E 12 16733 15637 8037 Blue 18
4 PM Wed 66 66 E 12 15782 12846 5246 Blue 15
5 PM Wed 62 62 E 12 12082 10924 3324 Blue 12
6 PM Wed 58 58 E 12 10693 9970 2370 Blue 8
7 PM Wed 56 56 E 12 10489 9761 2161 Blue 6
8 PM Wed 54 54 E 10 9860 9579 1979 Blue 4
9 PM Wed 52 52 E 10 9676 7600 0 Blue 2
10 PM Wed 51 51 E 10 9584 7600 0 Blue 1
11 PM Wed 50 50 E 10 7431 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 51 51 E 10 9584 7600 0 Blue 1
1 AM Thu 50 50 E 10 7431 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 49 49 E 10 7431 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 49 49 E 10 7431 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 48 48 E 10 7431 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 48 48 E 10 7431 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 48 48 E 10 7431 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 48 48 E 10 7431 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 52 52 E 10 9676 7600 0 Blue 2
9 AM Thu 58 59 E 10 10950 10480 2880 Blue 9
10 AM Thu 61 63 E 10 13047 11200 3600 Blue 12
11 AM Thu 62 65 E 10 15088 12025 4425 Blue 14
12 Noon Thu 64 67 E 10 16320 13926 6326 Blue 16
1 PM Thu 66 69 E 10 16733 15637 8037 Blue 18
2 PM Thu 66 68 E 9 16544 14872 7272 Blue 17
3 PM Thu 67 68 NE 9 16544 14872 7272 Blue 17
4 PM Thu 65 65 NE 9 15088 12025 4425 Blue 14
5 PM Thu 62 62 NE 9 12082 10924 3324 Blue 12
6 PM Thu 58 58 E 9 10693 9970 2370 Blue 8
7 PM Thu 56 56 E 9 10489 9761 2161 Blue 6
8 PM Thu 54 54 E 9 9860 9579 1979 Blue 4
9 PM Thu 53 53 E 9 9767 7600 0 Blue 3
10 PM Thu 51 51 E 9 9584 7600 0 Blue 1
11 PM Thu 50 50 SE 9 7431 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 51 51 SE 9 9584 7600 0 Blue 1
1 AM Fri 50 50 E 8 7431 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 50 50 E 8 7431 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 49 49 E 8 7431 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 49 49 E 7 7431 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 49 49 E 7 7431 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 49 49 E 7 7431 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 49 49 E 7 7431 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 53 53 E 7 9767 7600 0 Blue 3
9 AM Fri 58 59 E 7 10950 10480 2880 Blue 9
10 AM Fri 60 62 E 7 12082 10924 3324 Blue 12
11 AM Fri 61 64 E 7 14136 11616 4016 Blue 13
12 Noon Fri 63 66 E 7 15782 12846 5246 Blue 15
1 PM Fri 65 68 NE 7 16544 14872 7272 Blue 17
2 PM Fri 66 68 N 7 16544 14872 7272 Blue 17
3 PM Fri 66 67 NW 7 16320 13926 6326 Blue 16
4 PM Fri 65 65 NW 7 15088 12025 4425 Blue 14
5 PM Fri 62 62 W 7 12082 10924 3324 Blue 12
6 PM Fri 58 58 W 6 10693 9970 2370 Blue 8
7 PM Fri 56 56 W 6 10489 9761 2161 Blue 6
8 PM Fri 55 55 W 6 10014 9670 2070 Blue 5
9 PM Fri 53 53 W 6 9767 7600 0 Blue 3
10 PM Fri 52 52 W 6 9676 7600 0 Blue 2
11 PM Fri 51 51 W 6 9584 7600 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sat 52 52 W 6 9676 7600 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sat 51 51 W 6 9584 7600 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sat 51 51 W 6 9584 7600 0 Blue 1
3 AM Sat 50 50 W 6 7431 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 50 50 W 6 7431 7600 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com