Detailed Predictions for: Miller Canyon
Launch Altitude (f): 7600
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 59 59 N 9 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 58 58 N 9 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 62 62 N 9 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 67 68 N 9 8808 7600 0 Blue 1
10 AM Tue 68 71 N 9 12934 8788 1188 White 3
11 AM Tue 70 74 N 9 13593 11615 4015 White 6
12 Noon Tue 73 77 NE 9 14248 14248 6648 White 9
1 PM Tue 74 78 NE 8 14465 14465 6865 White 10
2 PM Tue 75 78 NE 8 14465 14465 6865 White 10
3 PM Tue 75 77 NE 7 14248 14248 6648 White 9
4 PM Tue 75 76 N 7 14030 14030 6430 White 8
5 PM Tue 74 74 N 7 13593 11615 4015 White 6
6 PM Tue 73 73 NW 8 13374 10659 3059 White 5
7 PM Tue 71 71 NW 9 12934 8788 1188 White 3
8 PM Tue 69 69 NW 10 9471 7600 0 Blue 2
9 PM Tue 68 68 W 10 8808 7600 0 Blue 1
10 PM Tue 67 67 NW 10 8147 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 66 66 NW 10 7404 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 65 65 NW 9 6613 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 64 64 NW 8 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 64 64 N 8 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 62 62 N 7 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 60 60 N 7 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 60 60 NE 7 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 59 59 E 7 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 57 57 E 8 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 58 58 E 8 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 60 60 SE 9 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 60 60 SE 9 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 61 61 S 8 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 62 62 S 8 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 62 62 S 8 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 62 62 SW 9 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 62 62 SW 9 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 62 62 SW 9 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 62 62 W 8 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 62 62 W 8 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 61 61 W 8 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 60 60 W 8 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 60 60 W 8 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 59 59 SW 8 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 59 59 SW 8 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 58 58 SW 8 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 58 58 SW 8 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 58 58 SW 8 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 57 57 SW 8 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 57 57 SW 7 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 56 56 W 6 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 56 56 W 6 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 55 55 NW 6 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 58 58 N 7 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 60 60 N 8 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 61 61 N 8 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 62 63 NE 8 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 63 64 NE 8 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 64 65 NE 8 6613 7600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 65 66 NE 7 7404 7600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 65 66 NE 7 7404 7600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 64 64 NE 7 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 64 64 N 7 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 63 63 N 7 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 62 62 N 7 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 61 61 N 6 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 61 61 N 6 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 60 60 N 6 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 59 59 NE 7 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 59 59 NE 7 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 58 58 NE 7 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 58 58 N 8 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 57 57 N 8 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 56 56 N 8 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 56 56 N 8 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 55 55 NE 8 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 54 54 NE 8 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 58 58 NE 7 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 63 64 NE 7 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 64 66 NE 7 7404 7600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 66 69 NE 6 9471 7600 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Fri 68 71 NE 6 12934 8788 1188 White 3
1 PM Fri 70 73 NE 6 13374 10659 3059 White 5
2 PM Fri 71 74 N 6 13593 11615 4015 White 6
3 PM Fri 71 73 N 6 13374 10659 3059 White 5
4 PM Fri 70 71 N 6 12934 8788 1188 White 3
5 PM Fri 70 70 N 6 10778 8137 537 Blue 2
6 PM Fri 69 69 N 6 9471 7600 0 Blue 2
7 PM Fri 67 67 N 6 8147 7600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 66 66 N 6 7404 7600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 65 65 N 7 6613 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 63 63 NE 7 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 63 63 NE 7 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 62 62 NE 7 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 61 61 NE 7 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 61 61 NE 7 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 59 59 NE 7 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 58 58 E 7 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 58 58 E 7 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 56 56 E 7 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 55 55 E 7 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 60 61 E 8 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 65 67 E 8 8147 7600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 66 69 E 9 9471 7600 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 69 74 E 9 13593 11615 4015 White 6
12 Noon Sat 71 76 E 9 14030 14030 6430 White 8
1 PM Sat 73 78 E 9 14465 14465 6865 White 10
2 PM Sat 74 78 E 8 14465 14465 6865 White 10
3 PM Sat 74 77 E 8 14248 14248 6648 White 9
4 PM Sat 73 74 E 7 13593 11615 4015 White 6
5 PM Sat 73 73 E 6 13374 10659 3059 White 5
6 PM Sat 71 71 E 6 12934 8788 1188 White 3
7 PM Sat 69 69 E 6 9471 7600 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 67 67 E 6 8147 7600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 66 66 E 7 7404 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 65 65 E 7 6613 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 64 64 E 8 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 63 63 E 8 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 62 62 E 8 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 61 61 E 8 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 60 60 E 8 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 58 58 E 7 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 58 58 E 7 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 56 56 E 7 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 55 55 SE 7 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 60 61 SE 7 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 66 68 SE 7 8808 7600 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 68 72 SE 7 13154 9446 1846 White 4
11 AM Sun 70 75 SE 7 13812 13812 6212 White 7
12 Noon Sun 72 78 SE 7 14465 14465 6865 White 10
1 PM Sun 75 80 SE 7 14892 14892 7292 White 12
2 PM Sun 76 80 S 6 14892 14892 7292 White 12
3 PM Sun 76 79 S 6 14679 14679 7079 White 11
4 PM Sun 75 76 SW 6 14030 14030 6430 White 8
5 PM Sun 75 75 W 5 13812 13812 6212 White 7
6 PM Sun 73 73 W 5 13374 10659 3059 White 5
7 PM Sun 71 71 W 5 12934 8788 1188 White 3
8 PM Sun 69 69 SW 5 9471 7600 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sun 68 68 SW 5 8808 7600 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 66 66 SW 5 7404 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 65 65 SW 5 6613 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 65 65 S 5 6613 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 63 63 S 5 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 63 63 S 5 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 61 61 S 5 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 59 59 S 5 6260 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 59 59 S 5 6260 7600 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com