Detailed Predictions for: Miller Canyon
Launch Altitude (f): 7600
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

26 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 44 44 S 9 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 44 44 S 9 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 44 44 S 9 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 48 49 S 9 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 51 53 S 9 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 53 56 S 9 9290 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 57 60 S 9 12032 10049 2449 Blue 4
1 PM Tue 61 64 S 9 15146 12357 4757 Blue 8
2 PM Tue 64 66 S 10 15777 12706 5106 Blue 10
3 PM Tue 66 67 S 12 16088 15068 7468 Blue 11
4 PM Tue 66 67 SW 12 16088 15068 7468 Blue 11
5 PM Tue 65 65 SW 12 15463 12554 4954 Blue 9
6 PM Tue 64 64 SW 13 15146 12357 4757 Blue 8
7 PM Tue 61 61 SW 12 12404 10936 3336 Blue 5
8 PM Tue 58 58 SW 12 11033 7600 0 Blue 2
9 PM Tue 57 57 SW 10 10108 7600 0 Blue 1
10 PM Tue 56 56 SW 10 9290 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 54 54 SW 9 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 53 53 SW 9 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 52 52 SW 9 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 51 51 SW 10 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 51 51 S 10 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 50 50 S 12 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 49 49 S 13 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 49 49 S 13 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 49 49 S 13 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 49 49 S 13 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 52 53 S 13 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 54 56 SW 13 9290 7600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 55 57 SW 13 10108 7600 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 58 60 SW 13 12032 10049 2449 Blue 4
1 PM Wed 60 62 SW 13 12582 11808 4208 Blue 6
2 PM Wed 62 64 SW 14 15146 12357 4757 Blue 8
3 PM Wed 64 65 SW 15 15463 12554 4954 Blue 9
4 PM Wed 64 65 SW 15 15463 12554 4954 Blue 9
5 PM Wed 63 63 SW 16 12722 12015 4415 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 62 62 SW 16 12582 11808 4208 Blue 6
7 PM Wed 59 59 SW 15 11905 9248 1648 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 56 56 SW 14 9290 7600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 55 55 SW 13 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 54 54 SW 12 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 52 52 SW 10 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 51 51 SW 9 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 50 50 SW 9 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 49 49 SW 9 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 48 48 SW 9 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 48 48 SW 9 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 47 47 SW 9 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 47 47 SW 9 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 47 47 SW 9 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 47 48 SW 9 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 50 52 SW 10 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 52 56 SW 10 9290 7600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 54 59 W 12 11905 9248 1648 Blue 3
12 Noon Thu 56 62 W 12 12582 11808 4208 Blue 6
1 PM Thu 59 65 W 14 15463 12554 4954 Blue 9
2 PM Thu 61 66 W 15 15777 12706 5106 Blue 10
3 PM Thu 63 66 W 16 15777 12706 5106 Blue 10
4 PM Thu 63 65 W 18 15463 12554 4954 Blue 9
5 PM Thu 62 62 W 20 12582 11808 4208 Blue 6
6 PM Thu 60 60 W 20 12032 10049 2449 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 57 57 W 18 10108 7600 0 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 54 54 W 17 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 53 53 W 16 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 51 51 W 15 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 49 49 SW 13 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 48 48 SW 12 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 46 46 SW 12 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 45 45 SW 10 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 45 45 SW 10 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 44 44 SW 10 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 43 43 SW 10 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 43 43 SW 10 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 43 43 W 10 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 43 44 W 10 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 46 48 W 10 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 49 53 W 10 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 50 55 W 12 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 53 59 W 12 11905 9248 1648 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 56 62 W 13 12582 11808 4208 Blue 6
2 PM Fri 59 64 W 14 15146 12357 4757 Blue 8
3 PM Fri 60 63 W 15 12722 12015 4415 Blue 7
4 PM Fri 60 62 W 16 12582 11808 4208 Blue 6
5 PM Fri 60 60 W 17 12032 10049 2449 Blue 4
6 PM Fri 58 58 W 17 11033 7600 0 Blue 2
7 PM Fri 56 56 W 16 9290 7600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 52 52 W 16 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 51 51 W 14 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 50 50 W 13 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 48 48 W 12 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 47 47 W 10 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 46 46 W 10 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 44 44 W 10 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 44 44 W 10 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 43 43 W 10 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 42 42 W 10 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 42 42 W 10 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 42 42 W 10 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 42 42 NW 10 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 46 47 N 10 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 48 50 N 10 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 50 53 NE 10 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 52 55 NE 10 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 55 58 E 12 11033 7600 0 Blue 2
2 PM Sat 58 61 E 12 12404 10936 3336 Blue 5
3 PM Sat 59 61 SE 13 12404 10936 3336 Blue 5
4 PM Sat 59 60 S 14 12032 10049 2449 Blue 4
5 PM Sat 59 59 S 15 11905 9248 1648 Blue 3
6 PM Sat 57 57 SW 15 10108 7600 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sat 54 54 SW 15 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 51 51 SW 14 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 50 50 SW 13 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 48 48 SW 12 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 47 47 S 12 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 46 46 S 10 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 44 44 S 10 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 42 42 S 10 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 42 42 SE 9 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 42 42 E 10 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 41 41 E 10 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 40 40 E 10 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 41 41 E 10 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 41 42 E 12 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 44 46 E 12 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 46 49 NE 13 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 47 51 NE 13 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 49 54 NE 14 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 52 57 E 15 10108 7600 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sun 54 58 E 16 11033 7600 0 Blue 2
3 PM Sun 55 58 SE 17 11033 7600 0 Blue 2
4 PM Sun 55 57 S 18 10108 7600 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sun 55 55 S 20 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 53 53 SW 20 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 51 51 SW 18 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 48 48 SW 18 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 47 47 W 17 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 46 46 W 15 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 45 45 W 14 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 44 44 W 13 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 42 42 W 12 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 41 41 SW 10 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 41 41 S 9 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 40 40 S 9 7415 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 40 40 SE 8 7415 7600 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com