Detailed Predictions for: Miller Canyon
Launch Altitude (f): 7600
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

12Z 23 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sat 52 52 S 18 9860 7960 360 Blue 3
7 AM Sat 51 51 S 17 9448 7644 44 Blue 2
8 AM Sat 53 53 S 16 10193 9007 1407 Blue 4
9 AM Sat 56 57 S 16 11134 10391 2791 Blue 8
10 AM Sat 58 61 S 17 12518 11276 3676 Blue 12
11 AM Sat 61 65 S 18 14922 12850 5250 White 16
12 Noon Sat 62 67 S 21 15353 13933 6333 White 18
1 PM Sat 63 68 SW 22 15568 14970 7370 White 19
2 PM Sat 64 68 SW 23 15568 14970 7370 White 19
3 PM Sat 65 68 SW 23 15568 14970 7370 White 19
4 PM Sat 65 66 SW 22 15139 13277 5677 White 17
5 PM Sat 63 63 SW 21 13360 12054 4454 Blue 14
6 PM Sat 57 57 SW 18 11134 10391 2791 Blue 8
7 PM Sat 54 54 SW 16 10410 9425 1825 Blue 5
8 PM Sat 51 51 SW 14 9448 7644 44 Blue 2
9 PM Sat 48 48 SW 12 7644 7644 44 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 46 46 SW 10 7644 7644 44 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 46 46 SW 9 7644 7644 44 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 44 44 SW 9 7644 7644 44 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 43 43 SW 9 7644 7644 44 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 43 43 SW 9 7644 7644 44 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 43 43 SW 9 7644 7644 44 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 42 42 SW 9 7644 7644 44 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 42 42 SW 8 7644 7644 44 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 41 41 SW 8 7644 7644 44 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 41 41 SW 8 7644 7644 44 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 44 45 S 7 7644 7644 44 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 49 51 S 7 9448 7644 44 Blue 2
10 AM Sun 53 57 S 7 11134 10391 2791 Blue 8
11 AM Sun 57 63 SW 7 13360 12054 4454 Blue 14
12 Noon Sun 61 67 SW 7 15353 13933 6333 White 18
1 PM Sun 62 68 SW 8 15568 14970 7370 White 19
2 PM Sun 63 68 SW 8 15568 14970 7370 White 19
3 PM Sun 66 70 SW 9 16016 15644 8044 White 21
4 PM Sun 66 68 SW 10 15568 14970 7370 White 19
5 PM Sun 63 63 W 10 13360 12054 4454 Blue 14
6 PM Sun 57 57 W 10 11134 10391 2791 Blue 8
7 PM Sun 54 54 W 10 10410 9425 1825 Blue 5
8 PM Sun 50 50 W 10 9025 7644 44 Blue 1
9 PM Sun 48 48 W 9 7644 7644 44 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 46 46 W 8 7644 7644 44 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 45 45 W 8 7644 7644 44 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 44 44 SW 7 7644 7644 44 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 43 43 SW 7 7644 7644 44 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 43 43 SW 7 7644 7644 44 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 43 43 SW 7 7644 7644 44 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 42 42 SW 7 7644 7644 44 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 41 41 SW 7 7644 7644 44 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 41 41 SW 7 7644 7644 44 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 40 40 SW 7 7644 7644 44 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 44 45 SW 8 7644 7644 44 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 49 51 SW 8 9448 7644 44 Blue 2
10 AM Mon 53 57 SW 9 11134 10391 2791 Blue 8
11 AM Mon 58 64 SW 9 14145 12455 4855 Blue 15
12 Noon Mon 62 68 SW 10 15568 14970 7370 White 19
1 PM Mon 63 69 SW 12 15782 15393 7793 White 20
2 PM Mon 64 69 SW 12 15782 15393 7793 White 20
3 PM Mon 67 71 SW 13 16213 16213 8613 White 22
4 PM Mon 67 69 SW 13 15782 15393 7793 White 20
5 PM Mon 64 64 W 13 14145 12455 4855 Blue 15
6 PM Mon 59 59 W 13 11707 10957 3357 Blue 10
7 PM Mon 57 57 W 12 11134 10391 2791 Blue 8
8 PM Mon 53 53 W 10 10193 9007 1407 Blue 4
9 PM Mon 51 51 W 9 9448 7644 44 Blue 2
10 PM Mon 49 49 W 8 7967 7644 44 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 49 49 SW 7 7967 7644 44 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 47 47 SW 6 7644 7644 44 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 46 46 SW 6 7644 7644 44 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 46 46 SW 6 7644 7644 44 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 46 46 S 6 7644 7644 44 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 46 46 S 6 7644 7644 44 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 45 45 S 7 7644 7644 44 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 45 45 S 7 7644 7644 44 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 44 44 S 7 7644 7644 44 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 47 48 S 8 7644 7644 44 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 52 54 S 8 10410 9425 1825 Blue 5
10 AM Tue 56 60 S 9 12112 11116 3516 Blue 11
11 AM Tue 61 66 S 9 15139 13277 5677 White 17
12 Noon Tue 64 69 S 9 15782 15393 7793 White 20
1 PM Tue 65 70 S 9 16016 15644 8044 White 21
2 PM Tue 66 70 S 9 16016 15644 8044 White 21
3 PM Tue 69 72 S 8 16416 16416 8816 White 23
4 PM Tue 69 70 S 8 16016 15644 8044 White 21
5 PM Tue 66 66 S 7 15139 13277 5677 White 17
6 PM Tue 62 62 S 7 12916 11655 4055 Blue 13
7 PM Tue 59 59 S 7 11707 10957 3357 Blue 10
8 PM Tue 56 56 S 6 10973 10176 2576 Blue 7
9 PM Tue 53 53 S 6 10193 9007 1407 Blue 4
10 PM Tue 52 52 SE 6 9860 7960 360 Blue 3
11 PM Tue 51 51 SE 6 9448 7644 44 Blue 2
12 Midnight Wed 50 50 SE 6 9025 7644 44 Blue 1
1 AM Wed 49 49 SE 6 7967 7644 44 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 49 49 SE 6 7967 7644 44 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 49 49 SE 7 7967 7644 44 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 48 48 SE 7 7644 7644 44 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 47 47 SE 8 7644 7644 44 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 47 47 SE 8 7644 7644 44 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 47 47 SE 8 7644 7644 44 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 49 49 SE 8 7967 7644 44 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 54 55 SE 9 10803 9832 2232 Blue 6
10 AM Wed 58 61 SE 9 12518 11276 3676 Blue 12
11 AM Wed 62 66 SE 9 15139 13277 5677 White 17
12 Noon Wed 65 69 SE 9 15782 15393 7793 White 20
1 PM Wed 66 70 SE 9 16016 15644 8044 White 21
2 PM Wed 67 70 SE 9 16016 15644 8044 White 21
3 PM Wed 70 72 SE 9 16416 16416 8816 White 23
4 PM Wed 70 71 SE 9 16213 16213 8613 White 22
5 PM Wed 67 67 SE 9 15353 13933 6333 White 18
6 PM Wed 62 62 SE 9 12916 11655 4055 Blue 13
7 PM Wed 60 60 SE 9 12112 11116 3516 Blue 11
8 PM Wed 56 56 SE 9 10973 10176 2576 Blue 7
9 PM Wed 54 54 SE 9 10410 9425 1825 Blue 5
10 PM Wed 52 52 SE 9 9860 7960 360 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 52 52 SE 9 9860 7960 360 Blue 3
12 Midnight Thu 51 51 SE 9 9448 7644 44 Blue 2
1 AM Thu 50 50 SE 9 9025 7644 44 Blue 1
2 AM Thu 50 50 SE 9 9025 7644 44 Blue 1
3 AM Thu 50 50 SE 9 9025 7644 44 Blue 1
4 AM Thu 49 49 SE 8 7967 7644 44 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 48 48 SE 8 7644 7644 44 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 48 48 SE 8 7644 7644 44 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 48 48 SE 8 7644 7644 44 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 50 50 SE 8 9025 7644 44 Blue 1
9 AM Thu 55 56 SE 8 10973 10176 2576 Blue 7
10 AM Thu 59 62 SE 8 12916 11655 4055 Blue 13
11 AM Thu 63 66 SE 8 15139 13277 5677 White 17
12 Noon Thu 66 70 SE 8 16016 15644 8044 White 21
1 PM Thu 67 71 SE 8 16213 16213 8613 White 22
2 PM Thu 68 72 SE 7 16416 16416 8816 White 23
3 PM Thu 70 72 SE 6 16416 16416 8816 White 23
4 PM Thu 70 71 SE 6 16213 16213 8613 White 22
5 PM Thu 68 68 SE 6 15568 14970 7370 White 19
6 PM Thu 63 63 SE 6 13360 12054 4454 Blue 14
7 PM Thu 61 61 SE 7 12518 11276 3676 Blue 12
8 PM Thu 57 57 SE 8 11134 10391 2791 Blue 8
9 PM Thu 55 55 SE 9 10803 9832 2232 Blue 6
10 PM Thu 53 53 SE 12 10193 9007 1407 Blue 4
11 PM Thu 53 53 SE 13 10193 9007 1407 Blue 4
12 Midnight Fri 52 52 E 14 9860 7960 360 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 51 51 SE 14 9448 7644 44 Blue 2
2 AM Fri 51 51 SE 14 9448 7644 44 Blue 2
3 AM Fri 51 51 SE 14 9448 7644 44 Blue 2
4 AM Fri 50 50 SE 14 9025 7644 44 Blue 1
5 AM Fri 49 49 SE 14 7967 7644 44 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com