Detailed Predictions for: Miller Canyon
Launch Altitude (f): 7600
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 37 37 S 5 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 38 38 SE 5 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 41 41 S 6 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 45 45 SE 6 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 48 49 S 7 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 50 52 S 7 8195 7600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 52 55 E 7 10812 8175 575 Blue 3
12 Noon Wed 54 58 NE 6 11261 10797 3197 Blue 6
1 PM Wed 55 58 SW 6 11261 10797 3197 Blue 6
2 PM Wed 56 59 NW 12 11411 10946 3346 Blue 7
3 PM Wed 57 58 NW 12 11261 10797 3197 Blue 6
4 PM Wed 54 54 NW 9 10183 7600 0 Blue 2
5 PM Wed 51 51 NW 10 7330 7600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 49 49 W 10 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 47 47 W 10 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 46 46 W 10 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 46 46 W 9 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 45 45 W 8 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 44 44 W 8 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 44 44 W 8 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 43 43 W 7 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 42 42 W 7 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 42 42 W 7 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 41 41 W 6 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 41 41 W 6 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 41 41 SW 5 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 41 41 S 5 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 46 46 S 5 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 51 52 SE 5 8195 7600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 54 56 E 5 10962 9178 1578 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 54 57 E 5 11112 10113 2513 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 56 59 E 6 11411 10946 3346 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 58 61 SE 6 11710 11244 3644 Blue 9
2 PM Thu 58 60 S 7 11560 11095 3495 Blue 8
3 PM Thu 58 59 SE 7 11411 10946 3346 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 56 56 E 7 10962 9178 1578 Blue 4
5 PM Thu 54 54 NE 7 10183 7600 0 Blue 2
6 PM Thu 52 52 E 7 8195 7600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 50 50 SE 8 6549 7600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 48 48 S 8 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 47 47 SE 9 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 46 46 E 9 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 46 46 NE 9 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 45 45 E 9 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 44 44 E 9 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 43 43 E 9 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 42 42 E 8 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 42 42 E 8 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 41 41 E 8 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 41 41 E 8 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 42 42 E 9 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 44 44 E 9 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 46 46 E 9 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 49 50 SE 9 6549 7600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 52 54 SE 9 10183 7600 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Fri 55 57 SE 9 11112 10113 2513 Blue 5
1 PM Fri 58 60 SE 10 11560 11095 3495 Blue 8
2 PM Fri 58 59 SE 10 11411 10946 3346 Blue 7
3 PM Fri 58 58 SE 9 11261 10797 3197 Blue 6
4 PM Fri 56 56 E 7 10962 9178 1578 Blue 4
5 PM Fri 53 53 E 6 9224 7600 0 Blue 1
6 PM Fri 51 51 E 7 7330 7600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 50 50 SE 8 6549 7600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 48 48 SE 9 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 47 47 S 8 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 45 45 S 8 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 44 44 S 7 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 44 44 S 8 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 44 44 S 8 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 44 44 S 8 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 44 44 S 8 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 43 43 S 7 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 43 43 S 6 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 44 44 S 6 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 45 45 S 6 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 47 47 S 6 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 49 49 S 7 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 52 53 S 7 9224 7600 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 55 57 S 8 11112 10113 2513 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 57 59 S 8 11411 10946 3346 Blue 7
1 PM Sat 58 61 SW 8 11710 11244 3644 Blue 9
2 PM Sat 59 61 SW 8 11710 11244 3644 Blue 9
3 PM Sat 58 59 W 9 11411 10946 3346 Blue 7
4 PM Sat 56 56 W 9 10962 9178 1578 Blue 4
5 PM Sat 53 53 NW 9 9224 7600 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sat 52 52 NW 9 8195 7600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 50 50 NW 9 6549 7600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 50 50 NW 9 6549 7600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 48 48 NW 9 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 48 48 NW 8 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 47 47 NW 8 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 46 46 NW 8 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 45 45 NW 8 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 45 45 NW 8 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 44 44 N 8 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 42 42 N 8 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 42 42 N 8 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 43 43 N 8 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 44 44 N 8 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 46 46 NE 8 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 48 49 NE 8 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 51 53 NE 8 9224 7600 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 53 56 E 8 10962 9178 1578 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 56 59 NE 8 11411 10946 3346 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 57 60 NE 8 11560 11095 3495 Blue 8
2 PM Sun 57 59 N 8 11411 10946 3346 Blue 7
3 PM Sun 56 57 N 8 11112 10113 2513 Blue 5
4 PM Sun 54 54 N 8 10183 7600 0 Blue 2
5 PM Sun 52 52 N 8 8195 7600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 50 50 N 8 6549 7600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 49 49 N 8 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 48 48 NE 8 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 47 47 NE 8 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 46 46 E 8 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 46 46 E 8 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 45 45 E 8 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 44 44 NE 8 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 43 43 N 8 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 42 42 NW 8 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 42 42 NW 8 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 42 42 W 8 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 43 43 W 8 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 45 45 W 8 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 47 47 SW 8 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 50 51 SW 8 7330 7600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 52 54 SW 8 10183 7600 0 Blue 2
11 AM Mon 55 58 S 8 11261 10797 3197 Blue 6
12 Noon Mon 58 61 SW 8 11710 11244 3644 Blue 9
1 PM Mon 60 63 SW 8 12008 11542 3942 Blue 11
2 PM Mon 60 62 W 8 11859 11393 3793 Blue 10
3 PM Mon 58 59 W 8 11411 10946 3346 Blue 7
4 PM Mon 55 55 W 8 10812 8175 575 Blue 3
5 PM Mon 52 52 NW 8 8195 7600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 50 50 W 8 6549 7600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 49 49 W 7 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 49 49 W 7 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 48 48 W 7 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 46 46 SW 6 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 46 46 SW 6 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 45 45 SW 6 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 45 45 SW 6 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 44 44 SW 7 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 44 44 S 7 6476 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 44 44 S 7 6476 7600 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com