Detailed Predictions for: Miller Canyon
Launch Altitude (f): 7600
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 35 35 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 36 36 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 37 37 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 37 37 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 42 42 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 45 46 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 47 49 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 47 50 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 50 53 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 51 53 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 50 51 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 50 50 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 48 48 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 44 44 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 44 44 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 43 43 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 42 42 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 41 41 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 41 41 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 40 40 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 39 39 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 39 39 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 39 39 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 39 39 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 39 39 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 39 39 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 40 40 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 40 40 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 42 42 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 43 44 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 43 45 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 43 45 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 45 47 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 45 47 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 44 45 NW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 44 44 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 41 41 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 38 38 NW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 37 37 NW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 36 36 NW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 35 35 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 34 34 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 34 34 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 33 33 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 32 32 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 32 32 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 32 32 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 31 31 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 31 31 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 32 32 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 33 33 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 34 34 NE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 38 38 NE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 40 42 NE 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 41 44 E 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 41 44 E 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 44 47 E 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 44 47 E 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 44 46 E 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 43 43 E 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 42 42 E 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 39 39 E 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 38 38 E 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 38 38 E 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 37 37 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 36 36 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 36 36 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 35 35 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 35 35 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 34 34 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 34 34 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 34 34 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 34 34 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 36 36 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 37 37 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 37 37 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 43 43 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 46 47 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 47 49 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 48 50 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 51 53 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 52 54 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 51 52 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 51 51 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 48 48 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 44 44 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 44 44 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 42 42 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 42 42 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 41 41 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 40 40 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 40 40 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 39 39 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 38 38 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 38 38 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 38 38 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 38 38 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 39 39 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 40 40 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 40 40 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 44 44 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 46 47 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 48 50 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 48 50 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 50 52 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 51 53 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 50 51 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 49 49 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 45 45 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 39 39 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 38 38 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 37 37 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 35 35 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 34 34 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 33 33 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 32 32 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 31 31 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 30 30 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 30 30 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 30 30 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 30 30 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 31 31 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 31 31 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 32 32 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 34 34 NE 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 36 37 NE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 37 39 E 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 37 40 E 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 39 42 E 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 39 41 E 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 39 40 E 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 38 38 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 36 36 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 33 33 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 32 32 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 31 31 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 30 30 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 30 30 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 29 29 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 28 28 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 28 28 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 27 27 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 28 28 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 27 27 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com