Detailed Predictions for: Miller Canyon
Launch Altitude (f): 7600
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 27 27 E 22 7543 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 26 26 E 22 7543 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 27 27 E 23 7543 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 30 30 E 23 7563 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 34 35 E 24 8658 7967 367 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 36 38 E 25 8782 8657 1057 Blue 7
11 AM Tue 37 40 E 25 8865 8739 1139 Blue 9
12 Noon Tue 39 43 E 24 9106 8864 1264 Blue 12
1 PM Tue 40 44 E 22 9275 8925 1325 Blue 13
2 PM Tue 40 43 E 22 9106 8864 1264 Blue 12
3 PM Tue 40 41 E 23 8929 8781 1181 Blue 10
4 PM Tue 38 38 E 25 8782 8657 1057 Blue 7
5 PM Tue 36 36 E 28 8699 8329 729 Blue 5
6 PM Tue 34 34 E 28 8616 7708 108 Blue 3
7 PM Tue 33 33 E 28 8337 7600 0 Blue 2
8 PM Tue 32 32 E 28 7970 7600 0 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 31 31 E 28 7708 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 30 30 E 26 7563 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 28 28 E 25 7543 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 34 34 E 24 8616 7708 108 Blue 3
1 AM Wed 33 33 E 24 8337 7600 0 Blue 2
2 AM Wed 32 32 E 23 7970 7600 0 Blue 1
3 AM Wed 31 31 E 23 7708 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 30 30 E 23 7563 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 31 31 E 23 7708 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 30 30 E 22 7563 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 30 30 E 21 7563 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 34 34 E 20 8616 7708 108 Blue 3
9 AM Wed 40 41 E 20 8929 8781 1181 Blue 10
10 AM Wed 43 45 E 18 9487 9013 1413 Blue 14
11 AM Wed 44 46 E 18 9699 9102 1502 Blue 15
12 Noon Wed 46 49 E 17 10337 9686 2086 Blue 18
1 PM Wed 48 50 E 16 10572 9896 2296 Blue 19
2 PM Wed 48 49 E 16 10337 9686 2086 Blue 18
3 PM Wed 48 49 E 15 10337 9686 2086 Blue 18
4 PM Wed 46 46 E 14 9699 9102 1502 Blue 15
5 PM Wed 42 42 E 13 9017 8822 1222 Blue 11
6 PM Wed 39 39 E 13 8824 8698 1098 Blue 8
7 PM Wed 37 37 E 13 8741 8615 1015 Blue 6
8 PM Wed 37 37 E 13 8741 8615 1015 Blue 6
9 PM Wed 35 35 E 13 8658 7967 367 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 34 34 E 12 8616 7708 108 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 31 31 E 12 7708 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 37 37 E 10 8741 8615 1015 Blue 6
1 AM Thu 36 36 E 10 8699 8329 729 Blue 5
2 AM Thu 36 36 E 10 8699 8329 729 Blue 5
3 AM Thu 34 34 E 9 8616 7708 108 Blue 3
4 AM Thu 33 33 E 9 8337 7600 0 Blue 2
5 AM Thu 34 34 E 9 8616 7708 108 Blue 3
6 AM Thu 33 33 E 9 8337 7600 0 Blue 2
7 AM Thu 34 34 E 9 8616 7708 108 Blue 3
8 AM Thu 38 38 E 10 8782 8657 1057 Blue 7
9 AM Thu 44 45 E 10 9487 9013 1413 Blue 14
10 AM Thu 47 49 E 10 10337 9686 2086 Blue 18
11 AM Thu 49 52 SE 10 12007 10317 2717 Blue 20
12 Noon Thu 51 55 SE 9 13817 11909 4309 Blue 23
1 PM Thu 52 55 SE 9 13817 11909 4309 Blue 23
2 PM Thu 53 56 SE 8 14201 12580 4980 Blue 24
3 PM Thu 53 54 SE 8 13335 11198 3598 Blue 22
4 PM Thu 50 50 SE 8 10572 9896 2296 Blue 19
5 PM Thu 46 46 SE 7 9699 9102 1502 Blue 15
6 PM Thu 42 42 SE 7 9017 8822 1222 Blue 11
7 PM Thu 40 40 SE 7 8865 8739 1139 Blue 9
8 PM Thu 40 40 SE 7 8865 8739 1139 Blue 9
9 PM Thu 38 38 E 7 8782 8657 1057 Blue 7
10 PM Thu 36 36 E 8 8699 8329 729 Blue 5
11 PM Thu 33 33 E 8 8337 7600 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Fri 39 39 E 8 8824 8698 1098 Blue 8
1 AM Fri 38 38 E 8 8782 8657 1057 Blue 7
2 AM Fri 37 37 E 8 8741 8615 1015 Blue 6
3 AM Fri 36 36 E 8 8699 8329 729 Blue 5
4 AM Fri 35 35 E 8 8658 7967 367 Blue 4
5 AM Fri 35 35 E 8 8658 7967 367 Blue 4
6 AM Fri 34 34 E 8 8616 7708 108 Blue 3
7 AM Fri 35 35 SE 8 8658 7967 367 Blue 4
8 AM Fri 39 39 SE 8 8824 8698 1098 Blue 8
9 AM Fri 46 47 SE 8 9911 9264 1664 Blue 16
10 AM Fri 48 50 SE 8 10572 9896 2296 Blue 19
11 AM Fri 50 53 S 8 12688 10550 2950 Blue 21
12 Noon Fri 52 55 S 8 13817 11909 4309 Blue 23
1 PM Fri 53 56 S 8 14201 12580 4980 Blue 24
2 PM Fri 54 56 S 8 14201 12580 4980 Blue 24
3 PM Fri 53 54 SW 8 13335 11198 3598 Blue 22
4 PM Fri 51 51 SW 8 11285 10105 2505 Blue 20
5 PM Fri 48 48 SW 9 10122 9475 1875 Blue 17
6 PM Fri 44 44 SW 8 9275 8925 1325 Blue 13
7 PM Fri 42 42 SW 8 9017 8822 1222 Blue 11
8 PM Fri 42 42 SW 8 9017 8822 1222 Blue 11
9 PM Fri 40 40 SW 8 8865 8739 1139 Blue 9
10 PM Fri 39 39 SW 8 8824 8698 1098 Blue 8
11 PM Fri 36 36 SW 8 8699 8329 729 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sat 41 41 SW 8 8929 8781 1181 Blue 10
1 AM Sat 40 40 S 7 8865 8739 1139 Blue 9
2 AM Sat 40 40 S 8 8865 8739 1139 Blue 9
3 AM Sat 39 39 S 8 8824 8698 1098 Blue 8
4 AM Sat 38 38 S 8 8782 8657 1057 Blue 7
5 AM Sat 38 38 SE 8 8782 8657 1057 Blue 7
6 AM Sat 37 37 S 8 8741 8615 1015 Blue 6
7 AM Sat 38 38 S 8 8782 8657 1057 Blue 7
8 AM Sat 42 42 S 8 9017 8822 1222 Blue 11
9 AM Sat 47 47 S 8 9911 9264 1664 Blue 16
10 AM Sat 49 50 S 8 10572 9896 2296 Blue 19
11 AM Sat 51 53 S 8 12688 10550 2950 Blue 21
12 Noon Sat 52 55 S 9 13817 11909 4309 Blue 23
1 PM Sat 54 57 SW 9 14579 13218 5618 Blue 25
2 PM Sat 54 56 SW 9 14201 12580 4980 Blue 24
3 PM Sat 54 55 SW 9 13817 11909 4309 Blue 23
4 PM Sat 52 52 W 9 12007 10317 2717 Blue 20
5 PM Sat 48 48 W 9 10122 9475 1875 Blue 17
6 PM Sat 45 45 W 9 9487 9013 1413 Blue 14
7 PM Sat 43 43 SW 8 9106 8864 1264 Blue 12
8 PM Sat 42 42 SW 8 9017 8822 1222 Blue 11
9 PM Sat 41 41 SW 8 8929 8781 1181 Blue 10
10 PM Sat 39 39 S 8 8824 8698 1098 Blue 8
11 PM Sat 36 36 S 8 8699 8329 729 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sun 41 41 S 8 8929 8781 1181 Blue 10
1 AM Sun 40 40 S 8 8865 8739 1139 Blue 9
2 AM Sun 40 40 SE 8 8865 8739 1139 Blue 9
3 AM Sun 39 39 SE 8 8824 8698 1098 Blue 8
4 AM Sun 38 38 SE 8 8782 8657 1057 Blue 7
5 AM Sun 38 38 E 8 8782 8657 1057 Blue 7
6 AM Sun 38 38 E 8 8782 8657 1057 Blue 7
7 AM Sun 38 38 E 9 8782 8657 1057 Blue 7
8 AM Sun 42 42 E 9 9017 8822 1222 Blue 11
9 AM Sun 47 47 E 9 9911 9264 1664 Blue 16
10 AM Sun 49 50 E 9 10572 9896 2296 Blue 19
11 AM Sun 51 53 E 9 12688 10550 2950 Blue 21
12 Noon Sun 52 54 E 9 13335 11198 3598 Blue 22
1 PM Sun 54 56 E 10 14201 12580 4980 Blue 24
2 PM Sun 54 55 E 10 13817 11909 4309 Blue 23
3 PM Sun 54 55 E 10 13817 11909 4309 Blue 23
4 PM Sun 52 52 E 10 12007 10317 2717 Blue 20
5 PM Sun 49 49 E 10 10337 9686 2086 Blue 18
6 PM Sun 45 45 E 10 9487 9013 1413 Blue 14
7 PM Sun 43 43 E 10 9106 8864 1264 Blue 12
8 PM Sun 43 43 E 9 9106 8864 1264 Blue 12
9 PM Sun 41 41 E 9 8929 8781 1181 Blue 10
10 PM Sun 40 40 E 9 8865 8739 1139 Blue 9
11 PM Sun 37 37 E 9 8741 8615 1015 Blue 6
12 Midnight Mon 42 42 E 9 9017 8822 1222 Blue 11
1 AM Mon 41 41 E 9 8929 8781 1181 Blue 10
2 AM Mon 41 41 E 9 8929 8781 1181 Blue 10
3 AM Mon 40 40 E 9 8865 8739 1139 Blue 9
4 AM Mon 38 38 E 9 8782 8657 1057 Blue 7

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com