Detailed Predictions for: Miller Canyon
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 31.4236, -110.2844, 7600
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Fri 38 38 W 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 38 38 WNW 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 37 37 NW 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 39 39 NW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 37 37 SW 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 37 37 ESE 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 34 34 NNW 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 38 38 N 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 40 40 N 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 40 41 NNW 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 46 47 NE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 50 53 ENE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 54 59 ESE 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 57 62 SE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 60 64 S 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 62 65 WNW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 61 62 WSW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 60 60 WSW 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 55 55 W 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 57 57 W 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 55 55 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 50 50 W 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 51 51 WSW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 48 48 WSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 44 44 WSW 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 44 44 WSW 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 43 43 WSW 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 40 40 WSW 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 41 41 WSW 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 40 40 WSW 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 37 37 WSW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 41 41 SW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 43 43 SW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 43 43 SW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 49 52 SW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 53 57 SSW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 58 58 SW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 60 63 SW 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 62 63 SW 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 63 63 WSW 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 63 63 WSW 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 62 62 WSW 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 61 61 WSW 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 59 59 WSW 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 56 56 WSW 8 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 53 53 WSW 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 51 51 WSW 7 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 49 49 SW 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 45 45 SW 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 45 45 SW 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 44 44 SW 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 41 41 SW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 41 41 SW 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 40 40 SW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 37 37 WSW 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 41 41 SW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 43 43 SW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 45 46 WSW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 49 52 SW 7 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 53 57 SW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 55 60 WSW 15 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 57 62 WSW 16 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 57 61 WSW 20 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 56 59 WSW 28 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 57 58 WSW 25 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 55 55 WSW 25 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 49 49 W 27 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 52 52 WSW 23 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 51 51 W 19 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 40 40 WNW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 45 45 W 13 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 40 40 WSW 11 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com