Detailed Predictions for: Miller Canyon
Launch Altitude (f): 7600
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

15 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Mon 64 64 NW 13 7172 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 64 64 NW 13 7172 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 68 69 NW 12 7266 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 70 72 N 10 8858 7600 0 Blue 1
10 AM Mon 71 74 N 8 10774 7983 383 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 74 78 N 6 14816 11180 3580 White 6
12 Noon Mon 75 79 N 6 15033 15033 7433 White 7
1 PM Mon 78 82 N 5 15682 15682 8082 White 10
2 PM Mon 79 83 NE 5 15896 15896 8296 White 11
3 PM Mon 80 83 W 5 15896 15896 8296 White 11
4 PM Mon 80 81 NW 5 15465 15465 7865 White 9
5 PM Mon 78 78 NW 6 14816 11180 3580 White 6
6 PM Mon 78 78 N 6 14816 11180 3580 White 6
7 PM Mon 76 76 NW 6 14382 9958 2358 White 5
8 PM Mon 76 76 NW 7 14382 9958 2358 White 5
9 PM Mon 74 74 NW 8 10774 7983 383 Blue 3
10 PM Mon 73 73 W 10 10034 7629 29 Blue 2
11 PM Mon 72 72 W 10 8858 7600 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Tue 72 72 NW 10 8858 7600 0 Blue 1
1 AM Tue 71 71 NW 12 7987 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 71 71 NW 12 7987 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 70 70 NW 13 7628 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 70 70 NW 13 7628 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 69 69 N 13 7266 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 68 68 N 12 7172 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 68 68 N 10 7172 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 71 72 N 8 8858 7600 0 Blue 1
9 AM Tue 72 74 N 7 10774 7983 383 Blue 3
10 AM Tue 74 77 N 6 14599 10732 3132 White 5
11 AM Tue 75 79 N 5 15033 15033 7433 White 7
12 Noon Tue 77 81 N 3 15465 15465 7865 White 9
1 PM Tue 78 82 N 3 15682 15682 8082 White 10
2 PM Tue 79 82 NW 3 15682 15682 8082 White 10
3 PM Tue 80 82 W 5 15682 15682 8082 White 10
4 PM Tue 80 81 W 6 15465 15465 7865 White 9
5 PM Tue 78 78 W 7 14816 11180 3580 White 6
6 PM Tue 77 77 W 8 14599 10732 3132 White 5
7 PM Tue 75 75 W 9 14164 8815 1215 White 4
8 PM Tue 75 75 W 9 14164 8815 1215 White 4
9 PM Tue 73 73 SW 10 10034 7629 29 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 72 72 SW 10 8858 7600 0 Blue 1
11 PM Tue 71 71 SW 12 7987 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 70 70 SW 12 7628 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 69 69 SW 12 7266 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 69 69 SW 13 7266 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 68 68 SW 13 7172 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 67 67 SW 14 7172 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 66 66 SW 14 7172 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 65 65 SW 14 7172 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 66 66 SW 13 7172 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 68 68 SW 12 7172 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 69 69 SW 10 7266 7600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 70 70 SW 9 7628 7600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 71 71 W 7 7987 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 72 72 W 6 8858 7600 0 Blue 1
1 PM Wed 73 73 W 6 10034 7629 29 Blue 2
2 PM Wed 74 74 W 6 10774 7983 383 Blue 3
3 PM Wed 74 74 W 6 10774 7983 383 Blue 3
4 PM Wed 75 75 W 7 14164 8815 1215 White 4
5 PM Wed 73 73 W 7 10034 7629 29 Blue 2
6 PM Wed 73 73 W 8 10034 7629 29 Blue 2
7 PM Wed 71 71 W 9 7987 7600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 70 70 W 9 7628 7600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 69 69 SW 10 7266 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 68 68 SW 12 7172 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 68 68 SW 12 7172 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 67 67 SW 12 7172 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 66 66 SW 12 7172 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 66 66 SW 10 7172 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 65 65 SW 10 7172 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 65 65 SW 10 7172 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 64 64 SW 12 7172 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 64 64 W 12 7172 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 64 64 W 12 7172 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 66 66 NW 10 7172 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 67 67 NW 9 7172 7600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 68 68 NW 8 7172 7600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 69 69 NW 8 7266 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 70 70 NW 7 7628 7600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 71 71 NW 6 7987 7600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 72 73 NW 6 10034 7629 29 Blue 2
3 PM Thu 72 72 NW 6 8858 7600 0 Blue 1
4 PM Thu 72 72 NW 6 8858 7600 0 Blue 1
5 PM Thu 71 71 NW 6 7987 7600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 71 71 W 7 7987 7600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 69 69 W 8 7266 7600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 69 69 W 10 7266 7600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 68 68 W 12 7172 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 67 67 W 12 7172 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 67 67 W 12 7172 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 66 66 W 12 7172 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 66 66 W 12 7172 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 65 65 W 10 7172 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 65 65 W 10 7172 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 65 65 W 10 7172 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 64 64 W 12 7172 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 63 63 W 12 7172 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 64 64 W 12 7172 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 66 67 NW 12 7172 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 67 69 NW 10 7266 7600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 68 71 NW 9 7987 7600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 70 74 NW 8 10774 7983 383 Blue 3
12 Noon Fri 71 75 NW 7 14164 8815 1215 White 4
1 PM Fri 72 76 NW 6 14382 9958 2358 White 5
2 PM Fri 73 76 NW 6 14382 9958 2358 White 5
3 PM Fri 73 75 NW 6 14164 8815 1215 White 4
4 PM Fri 74 75 NW 6 14164 8815 1215 White 4
5 PM Fri 72 72 NW 7 8858 7600 0 Blue 1
6 PM Fri 72 72 W 8 8858 7600 0 Blue 1
7 PM Fri 70 70 W 9 7628 7600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 70 70 W 10 7628 7600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 69 69 W 12 7266 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 68 68 W 13 7172 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 67 67 W 13 7172 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 67 67 W 13 7172 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 66 66 W 13 7172 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 66 66 SW 13 7172 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 65 65 SW 13 7172 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 65 65 SW 13 7172 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 64 64 SW 13 7172 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 63 63 SW 13 7172 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 64 64 SW 12 7172 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 66 66 W 10 7172 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 67 68 W 9 7172 7600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 68 70 W 8 7628 7600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 69 72 NW 7 8858 7600 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sat 70 73 NW 7 10034 7629 29 Blue 2
1 PM Sat 71 74 NW 7 10774 7983 383 Blue 3
2 PM Sat 72 74 NW 8 10774 7983 383 Blue 3
3 PM Sat 72 73 NW 8 10034 7629 29 Blue 2
4 PM Sat 73 74 NW 8 10774 7983 383 Blue 3
5 PM Sat 71 71 NW 8 7987 7600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 71 71 W 8 7987 7600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 70 70 W 9 7628 7600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 69 69 W 9 7266 7600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 68 68 W 10 7172 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 67 67 W 10 7172 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 67 67 W 12 7172 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 66 66 SW 12 7172 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 66 66 SW 12 7172 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 65 65 SW 12 7172 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 65 65 SW 12 7172 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 64 64 SW 12 7172 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 64 64 SW 13 7172 7600 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com