Detailed Predictions for: Miller Canyon
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 31.4236, -110.2844, 7600
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

2 OCT 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 67 67 SSE 1 2 13680 13179 5579 White 10
1 AM Sun 66 66 SW 3 4 13464 12672 5072 White 9
2 AM Sun 66 66 ESE 3 4 13464 12672 5072 White 9
3 AM Sun 66 66 E 3 4 13464 12672 5072 White 9
4 AM Sun 67 67 NE 2 5 13680 13179 5579 White 10
5 AM Sun 66 66 ENE 2 4 13464 12672 5072 White 9
6 AM Sun 64 64 ESE 2 5 13030 11398 3798 White 7
7 AM Sun 57 57 ESE 3 6 8453 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 57 58 E 3 6 8808 7600 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sun 59 61 E 4 8 11445 8794 1194 Blue 4
10 AM Sun 64 68 E 5 9 13896 13405 5805 White 11
11 AM Sun 71 76 ESE 6 10 15597 15597 7997 White 19
12 Noon Sun 73 76 ESE 7 10 15597 15597 7997 White 19
1 PM Sun 77 83 ESE 6 9 17055 17055 9455 White 26
2 PM Sun 79 84 SE 5 8 17262 17262 9662 White 27
3 PM Sun 76 79 SSE 6 9 16226 16226 8626 White 22
4 PM Sun 77 77 SE 6 9 15808 15808 8208 White 20
5 PM Sun 77 77 SSE 6 7 15808 15808 8208 White 20
6 PM Sun 79 79 SSE 4 5 16226 16226 8626 White 22
7 PM Sun 78 78 SSE 3 3 16017 16017 8417 White 21
8 PM Sun 76 76 SSE 3 5 15597 15597 7997 White 19
9 PM Sun 64 64 SE 5 8 13030 11398 3798 White 7
10 PM Sun 71 71 ESE 5 6 14537 14537 6937 White 14
11 PM Sun 67 67 E 6 8 13680 13179 5579 White 10
12 Midnight Mon 62 62 E 4 6 11974 9146 1546 Blue 5
1 AM Mon 66 66 E 3 5 13464 12672 5072 White 9
2 AM Mon 64 64 E 4 8 13030 11398 3798 White 7
3 AM Mon 58 58 ESE 4 7 8808 7600 0 Blue 1
4 AM Mon 63 63 ESE 3 6 12811 10721 3121 White 6
5 AM Mon 65 65 E 3 5 13248 11853 4253 White 8
6 AM Mon 59 59 E 4 5 9164 7600 0 Blue 2
7 AM Mon 63 63 E 3 5 12811 10721 3121 White 6
8 AM Mon 58 59 E 3 6 9164 7600 0 Blue 2
9 AM Mon 59 61 E 5 9 11445 8794 1194 Blue 4
10 AM Mon 65 69 E 6 11 14110 13679 6079 White 12
11 AM Mon 69 74 E 7 10 15174 15174 7574 White 17
12 Noon Mon 74 80 E 7 10 16435 16435 8835 White 23
1 PM Mon 74 80 E 7 10 16435 16435 8835 White 23
2 PM Mon 75 79 E 6 9 16226 16226 8626 White 22
3 PM Mon 73 73 E 5 7 14962 14962 7362 White 16
4 PM Mon 77 78 ESE 2 3 16017 16017 8417 White 21
5 PM Mon 85 85 SSW 1 2 17468 17468 9868 White 28
6 PM Mon 77 77 WSW 2 3 15808 15808 8208 White 20
7 PM Mon 78 78 W 1 2 16017 16017 8417 White 21
8 PM Mon 75 75 NE 1 1 15386 15386 7786 White 18
9 PM Mon 64 64 ESE 6 7 13030 11398 3798 White 7
10 PM Mon 71 71 ESE 7 8 14537 14537 6937 White 14
11 PM Mon 70 70 ESE 6 7 14324 13951 6351 White 13
12 Midnight Tue 64 64 ENE 3 4 13030 11398 3798 White 7
1 AM Tue 67 67 NNE 2 3 13680 13179 5579 White 10
2 AM Tue 67 67 NE 0 0 13680 13179 5579 White 10
3 AM Tue 59 59 ESE 2 3 9164 7600 0 Blue 2
4 AM Tue 66 66 SSE 4 6 13464 12672 5072 White 9
5 AM Tue 65 65 SSE 2 3 13248 11853 4253 White 8
6 AM Tue 58 58 ESE 2 2 8808 7600 0 Blue 1
7 AM Tue 64 64 SE 3 5 13030 11398 3798 White 7
8 AM Tue 61 62 SE 3 7 11974 9146 1546 Blue 5
9 AM Tue 58 60 SE 4 7 10829 8443 843 Blue 3
10 AM Tue 64 68 SSE 4 7 13896 13405 5805 White 11
11 AM Tue 68 73 S 3 5 14962 14962 7362 White 16
12 Noon Tue 74 80 WSW 2 4 16435 16435 8835 White 23
1 PM Tue 73 78 WNW 3 4 16017 16017 8417 White 21
2 PM Tue 74 78 NW 3 5 16017 16017 8417 White 21
3 PM Tue 81 84 WNW 7 11 17262 17262 9662 White 27
4 PM Tue 61 61 SSW 13 23 11445 8794 1194 Blue 4
5 PM Tue 71 71 WSW 4 5 14537 14537 6937 White 14
6 PM Tue 75 75 W 6 8 15386 15386 7786 White 18
7 PM Tue 67 67 S 6 8 13680 13179 5579 White 10
8 PM Tue 65 65 SSW 5 6 13248 11853 4253 White 8
9 PM Tue 61 61 WSW 5 6 11445 8794 1194 Blue 4
10 PM Tue 64 64 SW 3 4 13030 11398 3798 White 7
11 PM Tue 64 64 SW 1 1 13030 11398 3798 White 7

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com