Detailed Predictions for: Miller Canyon
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 31.4236, -110.2844, 7600
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

16 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 64 64 SSE 8 12 5908 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 62 62 SSE 6 10 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 62 62 SSE 5 9 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 61 61 SSE 5 9 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 61 61 SSE 4 6 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 61 61 S 3 5 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 61 61 S 2 3 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 60 60 ESE 1 2 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 64 65 ENE 2 3 7379 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 66 68 ENE 3 5 9920 7600 0 Blue 3
10 AM Thu 68 72 ENE 4 6 15838 15425 7825 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 70 74 ENE 5 9 16217 15735 8135 Blue 9
12 Noon Thu 72 77 E 5 9 16969 16116 8516 Blue 12
1 PM Thu 73 78 SE 5 9 17108 16475 8875 Blue 13
2 PM Thu 73 76 SSW 5 9 16830 15911 8311 Blue 11
3 PM Thu 73 74 SW 5 9 16217 15735 8135 Blue 9
4 PM Thu 71 72 WSW 5 9 15838 15425 7825 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 69 69 W 5 9 15584 8341 741 White 4
6 PM Thu 68 68 W 8 12 9920 7600 0 Blue 3
7 PM Thu 66 66 WNW 8 12 8358 7600 0 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 64 64 WNW 9 13 5908 7600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 64 64 W 9 13 5908 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 62 62 WSW 8 12 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 61 61 SW 6 10 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 62 62 SSW 5 9 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 60 60 SSW 5 9 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 59 59 SSW 10 16 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 59 59 SW 6 10 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 59 59 W 4 6 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 59 59 W 5 9 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 59 59 W 3 5 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 60 60 S 2 3 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 63 63 SSE 3 5 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 64 65 E 3 5 7379 7600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 66 69 E 4 6 15584 8341 741 White 4
11 AM Fri 68 70 ENE 4 6 15683 9130 1530 Blue 5
12 Noon Fri 69 72 E 5 9 15838 15425 7825 Blue 7
1 PM Fri 70 73 ESE 6 10 15938 15665 8065 Blue 8
2 PM Fri 70 72 SSE 8 12 15838 15425 7825 Blue 7
3 PM Fri 69 71 S 8 12 15753 9871 2271 Blue 6
4 PM Fri 66 67 SSW 8 12 9165 7600 0 Blue 2
5 PM Fri 64 64 SW 9 13 5908 7600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 63 63 WSW 11 17 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 62 62 WSW 8 12 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 62 62 W 6 10 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 61 61 W 6 10 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 60 60 SW 5 9 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 60 60 S 9 13 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 59 59 SSW 8 12 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 59 59 WSW 5 9 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 59 59 W 3 5 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 58 58 WSW 2 3 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 58 58 SW 2 3 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 58 58 SSW 3 5 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 59 59 S 3 5 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 61 61 S 3 5 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 63 64 SSE 4 6 5908 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 65 67 SE 4 6 9165 7600 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 67 71 SE 4 6 15753 9871 2271 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 69 73 ESE 5 9 15938 15665 8065 Blue 8
12 Noon Sat 70 75 SE 5 9 16578 15811 8211 Blue 10
1 PM Sat 72 77 SSE 5 9 16969 16116 8516 Blue 12
2 PM Sat 73 77 S 5 9 16969 16116 8516 Blue 12
3 PM Sat 73 76 SSW 6 10 16830 15911 8311 Blue 11
4 PM Sat 72 73 SW 6 10 15938 15665 8065 Blue 8
5 PM Sat 71 71 WSW 6 10 15753 9871 2271 Blue 6
6 PM Sat 69 69 SW 6 10 15584 8341 741 White 4
7 PM Sat 67 67 SW 6 10 9165 7600 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 65 65 SW 5 9 7379 7600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 64 64 SW 5 9 5908 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 62 62 SW 5 9 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 62 62 SW 4 6 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 61 61 SW 4 6 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 61 61 SW 3 5 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 60 60 SW 3 5 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 60 60 SW 3 5 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 59 59 SW 3 5 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 60 60 SW 3 5 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 60 60 SW 3 5 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 62 62 SSW 3 5 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 64 65 SSW 4 6 7379 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 66 68 S 4 6 9920 7600 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 68 72 S 4 6 15838 15425 7825 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 70 76 S 5 9 16830 15911 8311 Blue 11
12 Noon Sun 72 78 S 6 10 17108 16475 8875 Blue 13
1 PM Sun 73 79 SSW 8 12 17247 16788 9188 Blue 14
2 PM Sun 74 79 SSW 9 13 17247 16788 9188 Blue 14
3 PM Sun 74 77 SW 11 17 16969 16116 8516 Blue 12
4 PM Sun 73 75 WSW 12 19 16578 15811 8211 Blue 10
5 PM Sun 71 71 WSW 12 19 15753 9871 2271 Blue 6
6 PM Sun 69 69 WSW 12 19 15584 8341 741 White 4
7 PM Sun 67 67 WSW 12 19 9165 7600 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sun 66 66 WSW 11 17 8358 7600 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sun 64 64 SW 10 16 5908 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 63 63 SW 8 12 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 62 62 SW 6 10 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 62 62 SW 5 9 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 61 61 SW 4 6 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 61 61 SSW 4 6 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 60 60 SSW 3 5 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 59 59 SSW 3 5 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 59 59 SSW 4 6 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 60 60 SW 4 6 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 62 62 SW 5 9 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 64 65 SW 6 10 7379 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 66 69 SW 9 13 15584 8341 741 White 4
10 AM Mon 68 72 SW 10 16 15838 15425 7825 Blue 7
11 AM Mon 69 75 SW 11 17 16578 15811 8211 Blue 10
12 Noon Mon 70 77 SW 12 19 16969 16116 8516 Blue 12
1 PM Mon 71 78 WSW 13 20 17108 16475 8875 Blue 13
2 PM Mon 72 77 WSW 14 23 16969 16116 8516 Blue 12
3 PM Mon 72 76 WSW 14 23 16830 15911 8311 Blue 11
4 PM Mon 71 73 WSW 16 24 15938 15665 8065 Blue 8
5 PM Mon 69 69 WSW 16 24 15584 8341 741 White 4
6 PM Mon 68 68 WSW 14 23 9920 7600 0 Blue 3
7 PM Mon 66 66 WSW 13 20 8358 7600 0 Blue 1
8 PM Mon 64 64 WSW 12 19 5908 7600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 62 62 WSW 10 16 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 61 61 SW 9 13 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 60 60 SW 6 10 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 60 60 SW 5 9 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 59 59 SW 4 6 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 58 58 SW 3 5 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 57 57 SW 3 5 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 56 56 SW 3 5 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 56 56 SW 3 5 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 57 57 SW 4 6 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 58 58 SW 4 6 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 60 61 WSW 4 6 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 62 65 WSW 5 9 7379 7600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 63 67 W 5 9 9165 7600 0 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 65 70 W 6 10 15683 9130 1530 Blue 5
12 Noon Tue 67 73 W 8 12 15938 15665 8065 Blue 8
1 PM Tue 69 75 W 8 12 16578 15811 8211 Blue 10
2 PM Tue 70 75 W 8 12 16578 15811 8211 Blue 10
3 PM Tue 70 74 W 9 13 16217 15735 8135 Blue 9
4 PM Tue 69 71 WNW 9 13 15753 9871 2271 Blue 6
5 PM Tue 68 69 WNW 9 13 15584 8341 741 White 4
6 PM Tue 66 66 WNW 9 13 8358 7600 0 Blue 1
7 PM Tue 64 64 W 9 13 5908 7600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 62 62 W 8 12 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 60 60 WSW 6 10 4905 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 59 59 WSW 6 10 4905 7600 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com