Detailed Predictions for: Miller Canyon
Launch Altitude (f): 7600
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

21 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sat 58 58 W 3 7641 7641 41 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 58 58 NW 5 7641 7641 41 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 63 63 SW 6 7641 7641 41 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 64 65 SW 7 7641 7641 41 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 65 67 SW 6 7814 7641 41 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 66 69 SW 6 8114 7664 64 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 68 71 W 7 10802 7963 363 Blue 1
1 PM Sat 70 73 W 6 14298 9413 1813 White 3
2 PM Sat 71 74 SW 5 14516 10747 3147 White 4
3 PM Sat 73 75 S 5 14733 11309 3709 White 5
4 PM Sat 72 73 S 6 14298 9413 1813 White 3
5 PM Sat 71 71 SW 8 10802 7963 363 Blue 1
6 PM Sat 72 72 SW 9 11372 8112 512 Blue 2
7 PM Sat 71 71 SW 9 10802 7963 363 Blue 1
8 PM Sat 70 70 NW 9 9531 7813 213 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 68 68 NW 8 7964 7641 41 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 68 68 NW 9 7964 7641 41 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 66 66 NW 8 7664 7641 41 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 65 65 NW 8 7641 7641 41 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 65 65 NW 6 7641 7641 41 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 65 65 E 7 7641 7641 41 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 64 64 SE 6 7641 7641 41 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 64 64 SE 5 7641 7641 41 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 63 63 SE 6 7641 7641 41 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 63 63 E 6 7641 7641 41 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 63 63 E 6 7641 7641 41 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 68 69 E 6 8114 7664 64 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 69 71 E 6 10802 7963 363 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 70 73 E 6 14298 9413 1813 White 3
11 AM Sun 71 75 N 7 14733 11309 3709 White 5
12 Noon Sun 73 77 N 7 15168 15168 7568 White 7
1 PM Sun 75 79 W 7 15595 15595 7995 White 9
2 PM Sun 76 80 W 8 15806 15806 8206 White 10
3 PM Sun 78 81 W 7 16017 16017 8417 White 11
4 PM Sun 76 77 SW 7 15168 15168 7568 White 7
5 PM Sun 75 76 SW 8 14951 11852 4252 White 6
6 PM Sun 76 76 NW 8 14951 11852 4252 White 6
7 PM Sun 75 75 SW 9 14733 11309 3709 White 5
8 PM Sun 74 74 NW 14 14516 10747 3147 White 4
9 PM Sun 71 71 NW 13 10802 7963 363 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 70 70 NW 12 9531 7813 213 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 69 69 NW 9 8114 7664 64 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 67 67 NW 7 7814 7641 41 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 67 67 NW 7 7814 7641 41 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 67 67 NW 7 7814 7641 41 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 66 66 N 8 7664 7641 41 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 65 65 N 8 7641 7641 41 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 65 65 E 8 7641 7641 41 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 64 64 E 8 7641 7641 41 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 65 65 E 7 7641 7641 41 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 71 72 E 7 11372 8112 512 Blue 2
9 AM Mon 72 75 E 6 14733 11309 3709 White 5
10 AM Mon 73 78 N 6 15383 15383 7783 White 8
11 AM Mon 74 80 N 6 15806 15806 8206 White 10
12 Noon Mon 77 84 N 6 16647 16647 9047 White 14
1 PM Mon 79 86 N 7 17066 17066 9466 White 16
2 PM Mon 81 86 N 7 17066 17066 9466 White 16
3 PM Mon 83 87 W 7 17273 17273 9673 White 17
4 PM Mon 81 83 W 7 16438 16438 8838 White 13
5 PM Mon 80 81 W 6 16017 16017 8417 White 11
6 PM Mon 81 81 W 7 16017 16017 8417 White 11
7 PM Mon 80 80 W 7 15806 15806 8206 White 10
8 PM Mon 78 78 W 8 15383 15383 7783 White 8
9 PM Mon 75 75 NW 8 14733 11309 3709 White 5
10 PM Mon 74 74 N 8 14516 10747 3147 White 4
11 PM Mon 72 72 N 8 11372 8112 512 Blue 2
12 Midnight Tue 70 70 N 9 9531 7813 213 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 69 69 NE 9 8114 7664 64 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 69 69 NE 9 8114 7664 64 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 69 69 E 9 8114 7664 64 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 67 67 E 9 7814 7641 41 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 66 66 E 9 7664 7641 41 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 66 66 E 9 7664 7641 41 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 66 66 E 10 7664 7641 41 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 72 73 E 12 14298 9413 1813 White 3
9 AM Tue 73 76 E 14 14951 11852 4252 White 6
10 AM Tue 74 78 E 15 15383 15383 7783 White 8
11 AM Tue 75 81 E 16 16017 16017 8417 White 11
12 Noon Tue 78 84 E 17 16647 16647 9047 White 14
1 PM Tue 80 86 E 16 17066 17066 9466 White 16
2 PM Tue 81 86 E 15 17066 17066 9466 White 16
3 PM Tue 83 86 SE 14 17066 17066 9466 White 16
4 PM Tue 81 83 S 12 16438 16438 8838 White 13
5 PM Tue 80 80 S 9 15806 15806 8206 White 10
6 PM Tue 82 82 SW 8 16228 16228 8628 White 12
7 PM Tue 80 80 S 7 15806 15806 8206 White 10
8 PM Tue 78 78 S 6 15383 15383 7783 White 8
9 PM Tue 74 74 S 6 14516 10747 3147 White 4
10 PM Tue 74 74 SE 5 14516 10747 3147 White 4
11 PM Tue 72 72 SE 5 11372 8112 512 Blue 2
12 Midnight Wed 69 69 E 5 8114 7664 64 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 69 69 E 5 8114 7664 64 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 69 69 NE 5 8114 7664 64 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 68 68 NE 5 7964 7641 41 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 66 66 NE 5 7664 7641 41 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 66 66 NE 5 7664 7641 41 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 65 65 NE 5 7641 7641 41 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 66 66 NE 5 7664 7641 41 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 71 72 NE 5 11372 8112 512 Blue 2
9 AM Wed 72 74 NE 6 14516 10747 3147 White 4
10 AM Wed 72 75 NE 6 14733 11309 3709 White 5
11 AM Wed 74 78 NE 6 15383 15383 7783 White 8
12 Noon Wed 76 81 NE 7 16017 16017 8417 White 11
1 PM Wed 78 83 NE 8 16438 16438 8838 White 13
2 PM Wed 79 83 N 9 16438 16438 8838 White 13
3 PM Wed 81 83 N 9 16438 16438 8838 White 13
4 PM Wed 79 80 N 10 15806 15806 8206 White 10
5 PM Wed 78 78 N 12 15383 15383 7783 White 8
6 PM Wed 80 80 NW 12 15806 15806 8206 White 10
7 PM Wed 78 78 N 12 15383 15383 7783 White 8
8 PM Wed 76 76 N 10 14951 11852 4252 White 6
9 PM Wed 73 73 N 10 14298 9413 1813 White 3
10 PM Wed 72 72 N 9 11372 8112 512 Blue 2
11 PM Wed 70 70 N 8 9531 7813 213 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 68 68 N 7 7964 7641 41 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 68 68 NE 6 7964 7641 41 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 68 68 NE 6 7964 7641 41 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 67 67 NE 5 7814 7641 41 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 66 66 NE 5 7664 7641 41 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 65 65 NE 5 7641 7641 41 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 64 64 NE 5 7641 7641 41 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 65 65 NE 6 7641 7641 41 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 69 70 N 7 9531 7813 213 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 70 72 N 8 11372 8112 512 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 70 73 NW 9 14298 9413 1813 White 3
11 AM Thu 71 74 NW 10 14516 10747 3147 White 4
12 Noon Thu 73 77 NW 12 15168 15168 7568 White 7
1 PM Thu 74 78 NW 12 15383 15383 7783 White 8
2 PM Thu 75 78 NW 13 15383 15383 7783 White 8
3 PM Thu 77 79 NW 13 15595 15595 7995 White 9
4 PM Thu 75 76 NW 13 14951 11852 4252 White 6
5 PM Thu 74 74 NW 12 14516 10747 3147 White 4
6 PM Thu 75 75 NW 12 14733 11309 3709 White 5
7 PM Thu 74 74 NW 12 14516 10747 3147 White 4
8 PM Thu 73 73 NW 10 14298 9413 1813 White 3
9 PM Thu 70 70 N 9 9531 7813 213 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 70 70 N 8 9531 7813 213 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 68 68 N 8 7964 7641 41 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 66 66 NE 7 7664 7641 41 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 66 66 NE 6 7664 7641 41 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 66 66 E 6 7664 7641 41 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 66 66 E 5 7664 7641 41 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 64 64 E 5 7641 7641 41 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 64 64 E 5 7641 7641 41 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com