Detailed Predictions for: Mt Lemmon
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.4431, -110.7892, 9150
LZ Altitude (f): 2370
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

2 OCT 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 52 52 ESE 10 11 9087 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 52 52 ESE 11 11 9087 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 51 51 ESE 11 11 8723 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 50 50 ESE 11 11 8583 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 50 50 SE 11 12 8583 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 50 50 SE 11 12 8583 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 51 51 SE 11 13 8723 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 51 51 SE 12 13 8723 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 53 53 SE 13 17 10633 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 56 58 SE 12 16 12978 11770 2620 White 5
10 AM Sun 57 61 SSE 11 14 13639 13397 4247 White 8
11 AM Sun 57 59 SSE 11 14 13199 12617 3467 White 6
12 Noon Sun 60 63 SSE 10 13 14076 13953 4803 White 10
1 PM Sun 59 62 SSE 9 13 13858 13676 4526 White 9
2 PM Sun 60 62 SSE 8 12 13858 13676 4526 White 9
3 PM Sun 59 61 SSE 8 11 13639 13397 4247 White 8
4 PM Sun 58 59 S 6 11 13199 12617 3467 White 6
5 PM Sun 57 57 SSE 6 10 12756 11354 2204 White 4
6 PM Sun 58 58 SSE 6 9 12978 11770 2620 White 5
7 PM Sun 56 56 SE 6 9 12533 10570 1420 White 3
8 PM Sun 55 55 SE 9 9 12310 9150 0 White 2
9 PM Sun 55 55 SE 9 10 12310 9150 0 White 2
10 PM Sun 54 54 SE 10 10 11386 9150 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sun 53 53 ESE 11 11 10633 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 54 54 SE 11 11 11386 9150 0 Blue 1
1 AM Mon 52 52 SE 11 12 9087 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 52 52 SE 11 12 9087 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 51 51 ESE 11 12 8723 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 51 51 SE 11 12 8723 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 51 51 SE 11 11 8723 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 52 52 SE 10 10 9087 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 52 52 SE 10 10 9087 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 53 53 SE 11 11 10633 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 56 58 SE 9 11 12978 11770 2620 White 5
10 AM Mon 57 60 SE 8 11 13419 13171 4021 White 7
11 AM Mon 57 61 SE 8 11 13639 13397 4247 White 8
12 Noon Mon 58 62 SE 8 11 13858 13676 4526 White 9
1 PM Mon 59 63 SE 6 11 14076 13953 4803 White 10
2 PM Mon 59 62 SE 6 11 13858 13676 4526 White 9
3 PM Mon 59 61 SSE 6 10 13639 13397 4247 White 8
4 PM Mon 58 59 S 6 9 13199 12617 3467 White 6
5 PM Mon 58 58 S 6 9 12978 11770 2620 White 5
6 PM Mon 57 57 SSE 8 10 12756 11354 2204 White 4
7 PM Mon 56 56 E 10 12 12533 10570 1420 White 3
8 PM Mon 55 55 ENE 11 13 12310 9150 0 White 2
9 PM Mon 54 54 ENE 11 13 11386 9150 0 Blue 1
10 PM Mon 53 53 E 11 13 10633 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 52 52 E 11 13 9087 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 51 51 E 11 13 8723 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 51 51 ESE 11 12 8723 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 51 51 ESE 11 12 8723 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 50 50 ESE 11 12 8583 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 50 50 ESE 11 12 8583 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 50 50 E 11 12 8583 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 50 50 ESE 11 12 8583 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 51 51 ESE 11 13 8723 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 52 52 ESE 11 13 9087 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 53 55 SE 10 13 12310 9150 0 White 2
10 AM Tue 55 58 S 9 12 12978 11770 2620 White 5
11 AM Tue 56 58 SSW 8 12 12978 11770 2620 White 5
12 Noon Tue 57 60 SW 8 12 13419 13171 4021 White 7
1 PM Tue 57 59 W 8 11 13199 12617 3467 White 6
2 PM Tue 57 59 W 8 11 13199 12617 3467 White 6
3 PM Tue 57 58 WNW 8 11 12978 11770 2620 White 5
4 PM Tue 56 56 WNW 8 11 12533 10570 1420 White 3
5 PM Tue 56 56 NW 8 11 12533 10570 1420 White 3
6 PM Tue 54 54 W 9 12 11386 9150 0 Blue 1
7 PM Tue 52 52 SSW 10 12 9087 9150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 51 51 SSE 11 13 8723 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 50 50 SSE 11 13 8583 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 50 50 SE 11 12 8583 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 49 49 SE 11 12 8583 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 49 49 SE 11 12 8583 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 49 49 ESE 11 13 8583 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 49 49 ESE 11 13 8583 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 48 48 ESE 11 13 8583 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 48 48 ESE 11 13 8583 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 48 48 ESE 11 13 8583 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 49 49 ESE 11 13 8583 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 50 50 ESE 11 14 8583 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 51 51 ESE 11 14 8723 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 52 54 E 10 14 11386 9150 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 53 56 NNE 9 13 12533 10570 1420 White 3
11 AM Wed 54 57 N 8 12 12756 11354 2204 White 4
12 Noon Wed 55 58 NNW 8 12 12978 11770 2620 White 5
1 PM Wed 56 59 NNW 8 11 13199 12617 3467 White 6
2 PM Wed 56 58 NW 8 11 12978 11770 2620 White 5
3 PM Wed 56 58 NW 8 11 12978 11770 2620 White 5
4 PM Wed 55 56 NNW 9 11 12533 10570 1420 White 3
5 PM Wed 54 54 NNW 9 11 11386 9150 0 Blue 1
6 PM Wed 53 53 N 10 11 10633 9150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 52 52 NNE 10 11 9087 9150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 51 51 NE 11 12 8723 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 50 50 ENE 12 13 8583 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 50 50 E 12 14 8583 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 49 49 E 13 16 8583 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 49 49 E 13 17 8583 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 49 49 E 14 17 8583 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 48 48 E 14 17 8583 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 48 48 E 14 17 8583 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 47 47 E 14 16 8583 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 47 47 E 14 16 8583 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 48 48 E 14 17 8583 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 49 49 E 14 17 8583 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 50 50 E 14 18 8583 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 51 53 E 13 18 10633 9150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 52 55 E 13 18 12310 9150 0 White 2
11 AM Thu 53 55 E 12 18 12310 9150 0 White 2
12 Noon Thu 54 57 E 12 18 12756 11354 2204 White 4
1 PM Thu 54 57 E 12 17 12756 11354 2204 White 4
2 PM Thu 55 57 E 12 17 12756 11354 2204 White 4
3 PM Thu 54 55 E 12 16 12310 9150 0 White 2
4 PM Thu 54 55 E 11 14 12310 9150 0 White 2
5 PM Thu 53 53 E 11 14 10633 9150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 52 52 E 12 14 9087 9150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 50 50 E 13 16 8583 9150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 49 49 E 14 16 8583 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 49 49 E 14 16 8583 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 49 49 E 14 16 8583 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 49 49 E 14 16 8583 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 48 48 E 14 17 8583 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 48 48 E 16 17 8583 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 48 48 E 16 18 8583 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 47 47 E 16 18 8583 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 47 47 E 17 19 8583 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 47 47 E 17 19 8583 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 47 47 E 18 20 8583 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 48 48 E 18 21 8583 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 48 48 E 19 23 8583 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 49 50 E 20 24 8583 9150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 50 53 E 20 25 10633 9150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 51 54 E 20 25 11386 9150 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Fri 52 55 E 19 25 12310 9150 0 White 2
1 PM Fri 53 56 E 18 24 12533 10570 1420 White 3
2 PM Fri 53 56 E 17 23 12533 10570 1420 White 3
3 PM Fri 53 55 E 16 21 12310 9150 0 White 2
4 PM Fri 52 53 E 14 20 10633 9150 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 52 52 E 14 19 9087 9150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 50 50 E 14 18 8583 9150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 49 49 ESE 14 17 8583 9150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 48 48 ESE 14 16 8583 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 48 48 ESE 14 16 8583 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 48 48 E 14 16 8583 9150 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com