Detailed Predictions for: Mt Lemmon
Launch Altitude (f): 9150
LZ Altitude (f): 2370
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

26 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 36 36 SE 12 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 36 36 SE 12 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 38 38 S 10 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 43 44 S 10 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 46 48 S 10 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 48 51 S 9 10031 9150 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Tue 50 54 S 9 12028 10000 850 Blue 4
1 PM Tue 52 56 S 9 12582 11796 2646 Blue 6
2 PM Tue 56 59 S 9 15486 12560 3410 Blue 9
3 PM Tue 56 58 SW 9 15164 12365 3215 Blue 8
4 PM Tue 57 58 SW 10 15164 12365 3215 Blue 8
5 PM Tue 56 56 SW 10 12582 11796 2646 Blue 6
6 PM Tue 55 55 SW 10 12400 10901 1751 Blue 5
7 PM Tue 54 54 SW 10 12028 10000 850 Blue 4
8 PM Tue 52 52 SW 10 10965 9150 0 Blue 2
9 PM Tue 51 51 SW 9 10031 9150 0 Blue 1
10 PM Tue 50 50 SW 9 9188 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 50 50 SW 9 9188 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 49 49 SW 9 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 48 48 SW 9 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 47 47 SW 9 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 47 47 S 10 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 46 46 S 10 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 46 46 S 10 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 46 46 S 10 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 45 45 S 10 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 47 47 S 9 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 49 50 S 9 9188 9150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 50 51 S 9 10031 9150 0 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 51 53 SW 9 11880 9177 27 Blue 3
12 Noon Wed 52 54 SW 9 12028 10000 850 Blue 4
1 PM Wed 53 55 SW 10 12400 10901 1751 Blue 5
2 PM Wed 55 56 SW 12 12582 11796 2646 Blue 6
3 PM Wed 55 56 SW 13 12582 11796 2646 Blue 6
4 PM Wed 55 55 SW 14 12400 10901 1751 Blue 5
5 PM Wed 55 55 W 15 12400 10901 1751 Blue 5
6 PM Wed 53 53 W 16 11880 9177 27 Blue 3
7 PM Wed 52 52 W 15 10965 9150 0 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 50 50 W 15 9188 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 49 49 SW 14 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 48 48 SW 13 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 47 47 SW 12 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 47 47 SW 10 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 46 46 SW 10 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 45 45 SW 10 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 45 45 SW 10 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 44 44 SW 10 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 44 44 SW 10 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 44 44 SW 10 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 43 43 SW 10 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 45 46 SW 10 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 47 49 SW 10 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 48 52 SW 10 10965 9150 0 Blue 2
11 AM Thu 49 54 W 12 12028 10000 850 Blue 4
12 Noon Thu 50 56 W 12 12582 11796 2646 Blue 6
1 PM Thu 51 57 W 13 12723 12015 2865 Blue 7
2 PM Thu 53 58 W 14 15164 12365 3215 Blue 8
3 PM Thu 53 56 W 16 12582 11796 2646 Blue 6
4 PM Thu 54 56 W 17 12582 11796 2646 Blue 6
5 PM Thu 53 53 W 18 11880 9177 27 Blue 3
6 PM Thu 51 51 W 18 10031 9150 0 Blue 1
7 PM Thu 50 50 W 18 9188 9150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 48 48 W 17 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 46 46 W 16 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 45 45 W 15 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 44 44 W 14 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 43 43 W 13 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 42 42 SW 13 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 41 41 SW 13 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 41 41 SW 13 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 40 40 SW 13 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 40 40 SW 13 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 40 40 SW 13 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 39 39 SW 13 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 41 42 W 12 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 43 45 W 12 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 44 48 W 12 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 45 50 W 12 9188 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 46 52 W 12 10965 9150 0 Blue 2
1 PM Fri 47 52 W 13 10965 9150 0 Blue 2
2 PM Fri 49 53 W 14 11880 9177 27 Blue 3
3 PM Fri 49 52 W 15 10965 9150 0 Blue 2
4 PM Fri 50 52 W 16 10965 9150 0 Blue 2
5 PM Fri 49 49 W 17 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 48 48 W 17 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 46 46 W 17 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 44 44 W 16 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 43 43 W 15 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 42 42 W 14 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 41 41 W 13 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 41 41 W 12 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 40 40 W 12 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 39 39 W 10 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 38 38 W 10 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 38 38 SW 10 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 38 38 SW 10 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 38 38 SW 10 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 37 37 SW 10 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 39 39 S 9 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 42 43 S 9 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 43 45 SE 9 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 44 47 SE 9 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 46 50 E 9 9188 9150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 47 51 E 10 10031 9150 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sat 49 52 NE 10 10965 9150 0 Blue 2
3 PM Sat 50 52 N 12 10965 9150 0 Blue 2
4 PM Sat 50 51 N 13 10031 9150 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sat 49 49 NW 14 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 48 48 W 14 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 47 47 W 14 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 45 45 W 13 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 43 43 SW 13 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 42 42 SW 12 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 42 42 S 10 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 41 41 S 10 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 40 40 S 10 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 39 39 SE 12 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 38 38 SE 12 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 38 38 SE 13 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 38 38 E 14 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 38 38 E 14 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 37 37 E 14 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 38 39 E 14 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 41 43 E 13 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 42 45 E 13 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 43 48 E 13 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 44 49 E 13 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 45 50 E 14 9188 9150 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 47 52 NE 15 10965 9150 0 Blue 2
3 PM Sun 47 50 N 15 9188 9150 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 47 49 N 16 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 47 47 NW 17 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 46 46 W 17 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 45 45 W 17 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 43 43 W 17 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 42 42 W 16 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 41 41 W 15 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 41 41 W 14 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 40 40 W 13 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 39 39 W 12 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 38 38 SW 12 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 38 38 S 10 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 38 38 S 10 7415 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 38 38 SE 9 7415 9150 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com