Detailed Predictions for: Mt Lemmon
Launch Altitude (f): 9150
LZ Altitude (f): 2370
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

17 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 33 33 E 13 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 32 32 E 13 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 34 34 E 13 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 34 34 E 13 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 40 40 E 13 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 43 44 E 13 9879 9150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 44 46 E 13 12180 9150 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Wed 45 48 E 12 13878 10637 1487 Blue 4
1 PM Wed 46 49 E 10 14108 12043 2893 Blue 5
2 PM Wed 51 53 E 9 14662 14295 5145 Blue 9
3 PM Wed 47 48 E 9 13878 10637 1487 Blue 4
4 PM Wed 46 46 NE 9 12180 9150 0 Blue 2
5 PM Wed 45 45 NE 9 10736 9150 0 Blue 1
6 PM Wed 42 42 NE 9 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 40 40 NE 10 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 38 38 E 10 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 37 37 E 12 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 36 36 E 12 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 36 36 E 12 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 37 37 E 12 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 37 37 E 12 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 37 37 E 12 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 36 36 E 12 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 35 35 E 12 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 35 35 E 12 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 34 34 E 12 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 36 36 E 12 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 36 36 E 12 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 42 42 E 12 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 45 46 E 12 12180 9150 0 Blue 2
11 AM Thu 47 49 E 10 14108 12043 2893 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 48 51 E 9 14423 13839 4689 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 49 52 E 7 14522 14067 4917 Blue 8
2 PM Thu 54 56 E 5 15722 14628 5478 Blue 12
3 PM Thu 50 51 E 3 14423 13839 4689 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 50 50 N 3 14324 13326 4176 Blue 6
5 PM Thu 49 49 N 3 14108 12043 2893 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 46 46 N 5 12180 9150 0 Blue 2
7 PM Thu 44 44 E 7 9879 9150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 42 42 E 8 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 41 41 E 8 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 40 40 SE 7 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 40 40 SE 6 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 41 41 SE 6 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 41 41 SE 7 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 41 41 SE 8 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 40 40 SE 7 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 39 39 SE 7 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 39 39 SE 7 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 38 38 SE 8 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 40 40 SE 9 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 40 40 SE 12 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 46 46 S 13 12180 9150 0 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 49 50 S 13 14324 13326 4176 Blue 6
11 AM Fri 51 53 S 13 14662 14295 5145 Blue 9
12 Noon Fri 52 54 S 14 14957 14405 5255 Blue 10
1 PM Fri 53 55 SW 16 15342 14503 5353 Blue 11
2 PM Fri 58 60 SW 16 19329 17325 8175 White 16
3 PM Fri 52 53 SW 17 14662 14295 5145 Blue 9
4 PM Fri 52 52 SW 17 14522 14067 4917 Blue 8
5 PM Fri 50 50 SW 17 14324 13326 4176 Blue 6
6 PM Fri 45 45 SW 17 10736 9150 0 Blue 1
7 PM Fri 41 41 SW 17 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 38 38 SW 17 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 37 37 SW 17 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 36 36 SW 18 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 36 36 S 20 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 37 37 S 20 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 37 37 SW 21 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 37 37 SW 21 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 36 36 SW 21 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 35 35 SW 20 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 34 34 SW 20 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 33 33 SW 20 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 33 33 SW 20 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 33 33 SW 20 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 34 34 SW 20 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 35 35 SW 20 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 35 35 SW 20 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 35 36 SW 21 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 35 36 W 21 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 36 37 W 21 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 34 34 W 21 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 33 33 W 21 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 33 33 W 21 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 31 31 W 20 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 29 29 W 20 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 28 28 W 18 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 28 28 W 17 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 27 27 W 16 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 27 27 W 15 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 28 28 W 14 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 27 27 W 13 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 27 27 W 12 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 27 27 W 10 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 26 26 W 8 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 26 26 W 7 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 26 26 W 7 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 27 27 W 7 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 27 27 W 7 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 31 31 W 8 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 33 34 W 9 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 34 36 W 10 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 34 37 W 12 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 35 38 W 13 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 38 40 NW 14 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 36 37 NW 15 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 35 35 NW 16 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 34 34 NW 16 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 32 32 NW 16 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 30 30 N 16 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 29 29 N 16 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 29 29 NE 15 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 28 28 E 14 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 28 28 E 14 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 29 29 E 14 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 28 28 E 14 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 28 28 E 14 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 28 28 E 14 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 27 27 E 14 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 27 27 E 14 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 27 27 E 14 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 28 28 E 14 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 28 28 E 15 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 34 34 E 15 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 37 38 E 15 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 39 41 E 15 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 40 42 E 15 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 41 43 E 15 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 46 48 NE 15 13878 10637 1487 Blue 4
3 PM Mon 42 43 N 15 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 41 41 NW 15 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 40 40 NW 15 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 37 37 NW 14 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 34 34 N 14 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 32 32 N 13 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 31 31 NE 12 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 30 30 NE 10 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 30 30 E 10 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 31 31 E 9 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 31 31 E 8 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 31 31 E 8 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 30 30 E 8 8317 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 30 30 E 7 8317 9150 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com