Detailed Predictions for: Mt Lemmon
Launch Altitude (f): 9150
LZ Altitude (f): 2370
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

21 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sat 61 61 W 13 8189 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 61 61 W 14 8189 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 64 64 SW 12 9219 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 65 66 SW 12 11324 9150 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 65 68 S 7 15106 10707 1557 White 3
11 AM Sat 65 69 S 7 15327 11280 2130 White 4
12 Noon Sat 65 69 SW 8 15327 11280 2130 White 4
1 PM Sat 66 70 NW 7 15544 11835 2685 White 5
2 PM Sat 67 71 W 6 15758 15758 6608 White 6
3 PM Sat 68 71 W 6 15758 15758 6608 White 6
4 PM Sat 68 70 W 8 15544 11835 2685 White 5
5 PM Sat 68 69 W 9 15327 11280 2130 White 4
6 PM Sat 68 68 W 12 15106 10707 1557 White 3
7 PM Sat 68 68 W 13 15106 10707 1557 White 3
8 PM Sat 68 68 W 13 15106 10707 1557 White 3
9 PM Sat 66 66 W 12 11324 9150 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sat 66 66 W 9 11324 9150 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sat 65 65 W 8 10741 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 64 64 W 6 9219 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 64 64 W 5 9219 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 64 64 W 5 9219 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 64 64 W 3 9219 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 64 64 W 3 9219 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 64 64 NW 3 9219 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 63 63 W 3 8189 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 63 63 W 3 8189 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 69 70 W 3 15544 11835 2685 White 5
9 AM Sun 70 72 SW 5 15973 15973 6823 White 7
10 AM Sun 70 73 N 6 16187 16187 7037 White 8
11 AM Sun 69 73 N 7 16187 16187 7037 White 8
12 Noon Sun 70 74 N 7 16401 16401 7251 White 9
1 PM Sun 70 74 NW 8 16401 16401 7251 White 9
2 PM Sun 73 77 NW 8 17041 17041 7891 White 12
3 PM Sun 74 77 NW 8 17041 17041 7891 White 12
4 PM Sun 74 76 NW 10 16829 16829 7679 White 11
5 PM Sun 74 75 NW 13 16615 16615 7465 White 10
6 PM Sun 75 75 NW 14 16615 16615 7465 White 10
7 PM Sun 74 74 NW 15 16401 16401 7251 White 9
8 PM Sun 74 74 NW 15 16401 16401 7251 White 9
9 PM Sun 71 71 NW 14 15758 15758 6608 White 6
10 PM Sun 69 69 NW 12 15327 11280 2130 White 4
11 PM Sun 69 69 NW 10 15327 11280 2130 White 4
12 Midnight Mon 67 67 NW 8 11887 9189 39 Blue 2
1 AM Mon 67 67 NW 7 11887 9189 39 Blue 2
2 AM Mon 67 67 NW 6 11887 9189 39 Blue 2
3 AM Mon 66 66 NW 5 11324 9150 0 Blue 1
4 AM Mon 65 65 NW 5 10741 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 65 65 NW 5 10741 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 64 64 N 5 9219 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 64 64 NW 3 9219 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 72 73 NW 3 16187 16187 7037 White 8
9 AM Mon 72 75 N 3 16615 16615 7465 White 10
10 AM Mon 73 78 N 5 17252 17252 8102 White 13
11 AM Mon 72 78 NW 5 17252 17252 8102 White 13
12 Noon Mon 72 79 NW 6 17463 17463 8313 White 14
1 PM Mon 74 81 NW 6 17883 17883 8733 White 16
2 PM Mon 77 83 NW 6 18302 18302 9152 White 18
3 PM Mon 79 83 NW 7 18302 18302 9152 White 18
4 PM Mon 79 82 NW 8 18092 18092 8942 White 17
5 PM Mon 79 80 NW 9 17673 17673 8523 White 15
6 PM Mon 79 79 NW 10 17463 17463 8313 White 14
7 PM Mon 79 79 NW 12 17463 17463 8313 White 14
8 PM Mon 78 78 W 10 17252 17252 8102 White 13
9 PM Mon 75 75 W 10 16615 16615 7465 White 10
10 PM Mon 72 72 W 9 15973 15973 6823 White 7
11 PM Mon 72 72 W 8 15973 15973 6823 White 7
12 Midnight Tue 70 70 W 7 15544 11835 2685 White 5
1 AM Tue 70 70 W 6 15544 11835 2685 White 5
2 AM Tue 70 70 SW 5 15544 11835 2685 White 5
3 AM Tue 68 68 SW 5 15106 10707 1557 White 3
4 AM Tue 68 68 SW 3 15106 10707 1557 White 3
5 AM Tue 68 68 SW 3 15106 10707 1557 White 3
6 AM Tue 66 66 SW 5 11324 9150 0 Blue 1
7 AM Tue 66 66 SW 6 11324 9150 0 Blue 1
8 AM Tue 73 74 SW 9 16401 16401 7251 White 9
9 AM Tue 74 77 S 13 17041 17041 7891 White 12
10 AM Tue 75 79 S 16 17463 17463 8313 White 14
11 AM Tue 74 80 S 18 17673 17673 8523 White 15
12 Noon Tue 74 80 S 21 17673 17673 8523 White 15
1 PM Tue 75 81 S 21 17883 17883 8733 White 16
2 PM Tue 78 83 SW 20 18302 18302 9152 White 18
3 PM Tue 80 84 SW 17 18511 18511 9361 White 19
4 PM Tue 80 82 W 15 18092 18092 8942 White 17
5 PM Tue 80 81 W 13 17883 17883 8733 White 16
6 PM Tue 80 80 NW 12 17673 17673 8523 White 15
7 PM Tue 80 80 NW 9 17673 17673 8523 White 15
8 PM Tue 79 79 NW 8 17463 17463 8313 White 14
9 PM Tue 75 75 NW 7 16615 16615 7465 White 10
10 PM Tue 72 72 NW 7 15973 15973 6823 White 7
11 PM Tue 72 72 NW 6 15973 15973 6823 White 7
12 Midnight Wed 69 69 NW 5 15327 11280 2130 White 4
1 AM Wed 69 69 NW 5 15327 11280 2130 White 4
2 AM Wed 70 70 NW 3 15544 11835 2685 White 5
3 AM Wed 68 68 NW 3 15106 10707 1557 White 3
4 AM Wed 68 68 NW 3 15106 10707 1557 White 3
5 AM Wed 67 67 NW 3 11887 9189 39 Blue 2
6 AM Wed 65 65 NW 3 10741 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 66 66 NW 5 11324 9150 0 Blue 1
8 AM Wed 72 73 NW 5 16187 16187 7037 White 8
9 AM Wed 72 74 W 6 16401 16401 7251 White 9
10 AM Wed 73 76 W 7 16829 16829 7679 White 11
11 AM Wed 72 77 W 8 17041 17041 7891 White 12
12 Noon Wed 72 77 W 9 17041 17041 7891 White 12
1 PM Wed 74 79 W 10 17463 17463 8313 White 14
2 PM Wed 76 80 W 13 17673 17673 8523 White 15
3 PM Wed 78 81 NW 14 17883 17883 8733 White 16
4 PM Wed 78 80 NW 16 17673 17673 8523 White 15
5 PM Wed 78 79 NW 17 17463 17463 8313 White 14
6 PM Wed 78 78 NW 18 17252 17252 8102 White 13
7 PM Wed 78 78 NW 17 17252 17252 8102 White 13
8 PM Wed 77 77 NW 16 17041 17041 7891 White 12
9 PM Wed 73 73 NW 15 16187 16187 7037 White 8
10 PM Wed 71 71 NW 13 15758 15758 6608 White 6
11 PM Wed 71 71 NW 10 15758 15758 6608 White 6
12 Midnight Thu 68 68 NW 9 15106 10707 1557 White 3
1 AM Thu 68 68 NW 7 15106 10707 1557 White 3
2 AM Thu 68 68 NW 6 15106 10707 1557 White 3
3 AM Thu 67 67 NW 5 11887 9189 39 Blue 2
4 AM Thu 67 67 NW 5 11887 9189 39 Blue 2
5 AM Thu 66 66 NW 5 11324 9150 0 Blue 1
6 AM Thu 64 64 NW 5 9219 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 65 65 NW 6 10741 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 69 70 NW 7 15544 11835 2685 White 5
9 AM Thu 69 71 NW 8 15758 15758 6608 White 6
10 AM Thu 70 73 NW 9 16187 16187 7037 White 8
11 AM Thu 69 73 NW 10 16187 16187 7037 White 8
12 Noon Thu 69 74 NW 12 16401 16401 7251 White 9
1 PM Thu 70 75 NW 13 16615 16615 7465 White 10
2 PM Thu 72 76 NW 14 16829 16829 7679 White 11
3 PM Thu 73 76 NW 15 16829 16829 7679 White 11
4 PM Thu 73 75 NW 15 16615 16615 7465 White 10
5 PM Thu 73 74 W 16 16401 16401 7251 White 9
6 PM Thu 73 73 W 16 16187 16187 7037 White 8
7 PM Thu 73 73 W 15 16187 16187 7037 White 8
8 PM Thu 72 72 W 14 15973 15973 6823 White 7
9 PM Thu 70 70 W 13 15544 11835 2685 White 5
10 PM Thu 68 68 W 10 15106 10707 1557 White 3
11 PM Thu 68 68 W 9 15106 10707 1557 White 3
12 Midnight Fri 66 66 SW 7 11324 9150 0 Blue 1
1 AM Fri 66 66 SW 6 11324 9150 0 Blue 1
2 AM Fri 66 66 SW 5 11324 9150 0 Blue 1
3 AM Fri 65 65 SW 3 10741 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 65 65 SW 3 10741 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 65 65 SW 3 10741 9150 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com