Detailed Predictions for: Mt Lemmon
Launch Altitude (f): 9150
LZ Altitude (f): 2370
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

12Z 23 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sat 44 44 S 15 8842 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 44 44 S 15 8842 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 45 45 S 15 9369 9150 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sat 49 51 S 15 11118 10368 1218 Blue 7
10 AM Sat 51 54 S 16 12093 11106 1956 Blue 10
11 AM Sat 53 57 S 16 12773 12049 2899 White 13
12 Noon Sat 54 60 S 17 13461 13294 4144 White 16
1 PM Sat 55 60 SW 17 13461 13294 4144 White 16
2 PM Sat 56 61 SW 17 13679 13679 4529 White 17
3 PM Sat 57 60 SW 17 13461 13294 4144 White 16
4 PM Sat 57 59 SW 17 13228 12858 3708 White 15
5 PM Sat 56 56 SW 17 12550 11642 2492 White 12
6 PM Sat 48 48 SW 16 10379 9361 211 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 46 46 SW 15 9790 9150 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 44 44 SW 14 8842 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 41 41 W 13 7999 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 39 39 SW 12 7999 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 38 38 SW 12 7999 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 36 36 SW 10 7999 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 36 36 SW 10 7999 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 35 35 SW 9 7999 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 35 35 SW 9 7999 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 34 34 SW 9 7999 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 33 33 SW 8 7999 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 33 33 SW 8 7999 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 33 33 SW 8 7999 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 34 35 W 7 7999 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 42 44 W 7 8842 9150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 46 50 W 7 10956 10150 1000 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 50 55 W 6 12325 11268 2118 White 11
12 Noon Sun 53 59 W 6 13228 12858 3708 White 15
1 PM Sun 55 61 W 6 13679 13679 4529 White 17
2 PM Sun 56 61 W 7 13679 13679 4529 White 17
3 PM Sun 57 60 W 7 13461 13294 4144 White 16
4 PM Sun 57 59 W 7 13228 12858 3708 White 15
5 PM Sun 56 56 W 8 12550 11642 2492 White 12
6 PM Sun 49 49 W 8 10738 9777 627 Blue 5
7 PM Sun 47 47 W 8 10160 9150 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sun 45 45 SW 8 9369 9150 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sun 42 42 SW 8 7999 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 40 40 SW 8 7999 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 39 39 SW 9 7999 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 37 37 SW 9 7999 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 36 36 SW 9 7999 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 36 36 SW 8 7999 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 36 36 SW 8 7999 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 35 35 SW 8 7999 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 34 34 SW 8 7999 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 34 34 W 8 7999 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 34 34 SW 7 7999 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 35 36 SW 7 7999 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 42 44 SW 6 8842 9150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 46 50 SW 6 10956 10150 1000 Blue 6
11 AM Mon 50 56 SW 7 12550 11642 2492 White 12
12 Noon Mon 53 59 SW 7 13228 12858 3708 White 15
1 PM Mon 55 61 SW 7 13679 13679 4529 White 17
2 PM Mon 56 61 SW 8 13679 13679 4529 White 17
3 PM Mon 58 61 W 8 13679 13679 4529 White 17
4 PM Mon 58 60 W 8 13461 13294 4144 White 16
5 PM Mon 57 57 W 7 12773 12049 2899 White 13
6 PM Mon 50 50 W 7 10956 10150 1000 Blue 6
7 PM Mon 48 48 SW 7 10379 9361 211 Blue 4
8 PM Mon 47 47 SW 8 10160 9150 0 Blue 3
9 PM Mon 43 43 S 8 7999 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 42 42 S 8 7999 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 41 41 S 7 7999 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 39 39 S 7 7999 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 39 39 S 7 7999 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 38 38 S 7 7999 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 38 38 S 7 7999 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 37 37 S 7 7999 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 37 37 S 8 7999 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 36 36 S 8 7999 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 36 36 S 8 7999 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 38 39 S 8 7999 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 45 47 S 8 10160 9150 0 Blue 3
10 AM Tue 49 53 S 8 11680 10945 1795 Blue 9
11 AM Tue 53 58 S 7 12997 12457 3307 White 14
12 Noon Tue 56 61 S 7 13679 13679 4529 White 17
1 PM Tue 58 63 S 7 14115 14115 4965 White 19
2 PM Tue 59 63 S 6 14115 14115 4965 White 19
3 PM Tue 60 63 S 6 14115 14115 4965 White 19
4 PM Tue 60 61 S 6 13679 13679 4529 White 17
5 PM Tue 59 59 S 5 13228 12858 3708 White 15
6 PM Tue 52 52 S 5 11281 10704 1554 Blue 8
7 PM Tue 50 50 S 5 10956 10150 1000 Blue 6
8 PM Tue 49 49 S 5 10738 9777 627 Blue 5
9 PM Tue 45 45 S 3 9369 9150 0 Blue 1
10 PM Tue 43 43 SE 3 7999 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 42 42 SE 5 7999 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 41 41 SE 5 7999 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 40 40 SE 6 7999 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 39 39 SE 7 7999 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 39 39 SE 8 7999 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 38 38 SE 9 7999 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 38 38 SE 10 7999 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 37 37 SE 12 7999 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 37 37 SE 13 7999 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 39 39 SE 13 7999 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 46 47 SE 13 10160 9150 0 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 50 53 SE 14 11680 10945 1795 Blue 9
11 AM Wed 54 58 SE 14 12997 12457 3307 White 14
12 Noon Wed 57 61 SE 14 13679 13679 4529 White 17
1 PM Wed 59 63 SE 14 14115 14115 4965 White 19
2 PM Wed 60 63 SE 14 14115 14115 4965 White 19
3 PM Wed 61 63 SE 14 14115 14115 4965 White 19
4 PM Wed 61 62 SE 14 13897 13897 4747 White 18
5 PM Wed 60 60 SE 14 13461 13294 4144 White 16
6 PM Wed 54 54 SE 14 12093 11106 1956 Blue 10
7 PM Wed 52 52 SE 14 11281 10704 1554 Blue 8
8 PM Wed 51 51 SE 14 11118 10368 1218 Blue 7
9 PM Wed 48 48 SE 14 10379 9361 211 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 46 46 SE 14 9790 9150 0 Blue 2
11 PM Wed 45 45 SE 14 9369 9150 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 44 44 SE 14 8842 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 44 44 SE 14 8842 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 43 43 SE 13 7999 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 43 43 SE 13 7999 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 42 42 SE 13 7999 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 42 42 SE 12 7999 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 41 41 SE 12 7999 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 41 41 SE 12 7999 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 42 42 SE 12 7999 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 48 49 S 12 10738 9777 627 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 51 54 S 12 12093 11106 1956 Blue 10
11 AM Thu 54 58 S 10 12997 12457 3307 White 14
12 Noon Thu 56 60 S 10 13461 13294 4144 White 16
1 PM Thu 58 62 S 9 13897 13897 4747 White 18
2 PM Thu 58 62 S 8 13897 13897 4747 White 18
3 PM Thu 60 62 S 7 13897 13897 4747 White 18
4 PM Thu 60 61 S 7 13679 13679 4529 White 17
5 PM Thu 59 59 SE 6 13228 12858 3708 White 15
6 PM Thu 54 54 SE 6 12093 11106 1956 Blue 10
7 PM Thu 52 52 SE 7 11281 10704 1554 Blue 8
8 PM Thu 51 51 SE 7 11118 10368 1218 Blue 7
9 PM Thu 48 48 SE 9 10379 9361 211 Blue 4
10 PM Thu 47 47 SE 10 10160 9150 0 Blue 3
11 PM Thu 46 46 SE 12 9790 9150 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Fri 45 45 SE 13 9369 9150 0 Blue 1
1 AM Fri 44 44 SE 13 8842 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 44 44 SE 14 8842 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 44 44 SE 14 8842 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 43 43 SE 14 7999 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 43 43 SE 14 7999 9150 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com