Detailed Predictions for: Mt Lemmon
Launch Altitude (f): 9150
LZ Altitude (f): 2370
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

17 SEP 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 53 53 SW 7 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 52 52 SW 7 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 54 55 SW 7 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 56 58 SW 7 10943 9150 0 Blue 1
10 AM Tue 57 61 W 7 12003 10927 1777 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 59 64 W 6 14295 11893 2743 White 7
12 Noon Tue 60 65 W 6 14512 12924 3774 White 8
1 PM Tue 61 66 W 7 14728 14728 5578 White 9
2 PM Tue 62 66 W 8 14728 14728 5578 White 9
3 PM Tue 63 66 W 9 14728 14728 5578 White 9
4 PM Tue 62 63 W 9 14075 11430 2280 White 6
5 PM Tue 61 61 W 9 12003 10927 1777 Blue 4
6 PM Tue 59 59 NW 9 11182 9150 0 Blue 2
7 PM Tue 57 57 NW 8 10179 9150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 57 57 NW 7 10179 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 55 55 NW 6 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 54 54 W 5 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 53 53 SW 5 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 53 53 SW 5 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 53 53 SW 5 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 54 54 SW 5 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 54 54 SW 5 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 53 53 SW 5 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 53 53 S 6 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 52 52 S 6 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 51 51 S 6 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 54 55 S 7 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 56 58 S 7 10943 9150 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 58 62 S 7 13054 11164 2014 Blue 5
11 AM Wed 60 65 SW 7 14512 12924 3774 White 8
12 Noon Wed 62 67 SW 7 14944 14944 5794 White 10
1 PM Wed 63 68 SW 7 15160 15160 6010 White 11
2 PM Wed 65 69 W 8 15375 15375 6225 White 12
3 PM Wed 66 69 W 8 15375 15375 6225 White 12
4 PM Wed 65 67 W 8 14944 14944 5794 White 10
5 PM Wed 63 63 W 9 14075 11430 2280 White 6
6 PM Wed 60 60 W 9 11460 10129 979 Blue 3
7 PM Wed 59 59 W 9 11182 9150 0 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 58 58 W 8 10943 9150 0 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 57 57 W 8 10179 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 55 55 W 8 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 54 54 SW 7 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 54 54 SW 7 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 54 54 SW 7 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 55 SW 7 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 54 54 S 7 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 54 54 S 7 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 54 54 S 8 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 53 53 S 8 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 52 52 S 8 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 54 54 S 9 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 56 57 S 9 10179 9150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 58 61 S 10 12003 10927 1777 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 60 64 SW 10 14295 11893 2743 White 7
12 Noon Thu 61 66 SW 12 14728 14728 5578 White 9
1 PM Thu 62 67 SW 13 14944 14944 5794 White 10
2 PM Thu 64 68 SW 13 15160 15160 6010 White 11
3 PM Thu 65 68 SW 14 15160 15160 6010 White 11
4 PM Thu 63 64 SW 15 14295 11893 2743 White 7
5 PM Thu 62 62 SW 15 13054 11164 2014 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 59 59 SW 15 11182 9150 0 Blue 2
7 PM Thu 57 57 SW 15 10179 9150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 57 57 SW 14 10179 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 55 55 SW 13 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 53 53 SW 12 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 52 52 SW 10 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 51 51 SW 10 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 52 52 SW 10 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 53 53 S 12 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 52 52 S 12 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 52 52 S 12 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 51 51 S 10 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 51 51 S 10 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 49 49 S 10 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 52 53 S 10 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 55 57 SW 10 10179 9150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 56 60 SW 10 11460 10129 979 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 59 64 SW 12 14295 11893 2743 White 7
12 Noon Fri 60 66 SW 12 14728 14728 5578 White 9
1 PM Fri 61 67 SW 12 14944 14944 5794 White 10
2 PM Fri 63 68 SW 13 15160 15160 6010 White 11
3 PM Fri 64 67 SW 13 14944 14944 5794 White 10
4 PM Fri 63 65 SW 13 14512 12924 3774 White 8
5 PM Fri 62 62 SW 13 13054 11164 2014 Blue 5
6 PM Fri 58 58 SW 13 10943 9150 0 Blue 1
7 PM Fri 56 56 SW 13 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 56 56 SW 12 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 54 54 SW 12 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 52 52 SW 10 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 51 51 SW 9 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 51 51 SW 9 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 51 51 SW 9 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 53 53 S 8 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 52 52 S 8 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 51 51 S 8 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 51 51 S 8 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 50 50 S 8 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 49 49 S 8 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 52 53 S 8 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 55 57 S 8 10179 9150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 57 61 S 9 12003 10927 1777 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 59 64 S 9 14295 11893 2743 White 7
12 Noon Sat 61 67 S 9 14944 14944 5794 White 10
1 PM Sat 62 68 SW 9 15160 15160 6010 White 11
2 PM Sat 64 69 SW 10 15375 15375 6225 White 12
3 PM Sat 65 68 SW 10 15160 15160 6010 White 11
4 PM Sat 64 66 SW 10 14728 14728 5578 White 9
5 PM Sat 62 62 W 10 13054 11164 2014 Blue 5
6 PM Sat 59 59 W 10 11182 9150 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sat 57 57 W 10 10179 9150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 57 57 SW 9 10179 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 55 55 SW 9 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 54 54 SW 8 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 52 52 SW 7 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 52 52 SW 7 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 52 52 SW 7 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 54 54 S 7 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 53 53 S 7 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 52 52 S 7 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 52 52 S 7 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 51 51 S 7 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 50 50 S 7 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 53 53 S 7 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 55 57 S 7 10179 9150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 57 60 SW 7 11460 10129 979 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 59 63 SW 8 14075 11430 2280 White 6
12 Noon Sun 61 66 SW 8 14728 14728 5578 White 9
1 PM Sun 62 67 SW 9 14944 14944 5794 White 10
2 PM Sun 64 68 SW 9 15160 15160 6010 White 11
3 PM Sun 65 68 SW 10 15160 15160 6010 White 11
4 PM Sun 64 65 W 10 14512 12924 3774 White 8
5 PM Sun 62 62 W 12 13054 11164 2014 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 59 59 W 12 11182 9150 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 57 57 W 12 10179 9150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 57 57 W 12 10179 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 55 55 SW 10 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 54 54 SW 10 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 52 52 SW 9 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 52 52 SW 9 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 52 52 SW 9 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 54 54 SW 9 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 53 53 SW 9 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 52 52 S 9 6975 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 52 52 S 9 6975 9150 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com