Detailed Predictions for: Mt Lemmon
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.4431, -110.7892, 9150
LZ Altitude (f): 2370
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Fri 41 41 ENE 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 41 41 E 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 41 41 ESE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 41 41 SE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 40 40 ESE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 39 39 ENE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 38 38 NE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 40 40 ENE 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 42 42 ENE 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 44 45 E 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 48 51 ENE 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 51 55 NE 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 54 59 NE 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 56 61 SE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 57 61 SW 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 59 61 NNW 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 58 59 NW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 58 58 NW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 58 58 WNW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 57 57 WNW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 55 55 WNW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 54 54 W 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 51 51 W 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 48 48 W 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 45 45 WSW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 44 44 WSW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 43 43 SW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 42 42 SW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 41 41 SW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 41 41 SW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 40 40 SSW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 42 42 SSW 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 44 44 SSW 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 46 47 SSW 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 50 52 SSW 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 53 56 SW 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 57 60 WSW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 58 61 WSW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 59 62 WSW 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 60 62 WSW 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 60 61 WSW 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 59 59 W 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 59 59 W 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 56 56 W 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 53 53 W 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 50 50 W 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 49 49 W 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 48 48 W 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 46 46 W 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 45 45 W 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 44 44 WSW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 43 43 SW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 42 42 SW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 42 42 SW 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 41 41 SW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 43 43 SW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 44 44 SW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 46 47 SW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 48 51 SW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 50 54 WSW 7 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 53 58 WSW 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 54 59 WSW 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 54 58 WSW 15 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 55 58 W 18 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 53 54 W 19 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 51 51 W 21 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 49 49 W 22 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 47 47 WSW 16 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 45 45 WSW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 44 44 SW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 42 42 S 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 40 40 SE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com