Detailed Predictions for: Mt Lemmon
Launch Altitude (f): 9150
LZ Altitude (f): 2370
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 54 54 NW 8 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 53 53 NW 8 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 60 60 N 7 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 69 71 N 7 15366 14437 5287 White 9
10 AM Tue 68 71 N 7 15366 14437 5287 White 9
11 AM Tue 70 74 N 7 16017 15656 6506 White 12
12 Noon Tue 72 77 N 7 16658 16658 7508 White 15
1 PM Tue 72 77 N 7 16658 16658 7508 White 15
2 PM Tue 74 78 NW 7 16871 16871 7721 White 16
3 PM Tue 74 76 NW 8 16445 16202 7052 White 14
4 PM Tue 74 75 NW 9 16231 15872 6722 White 13
5 PM Tue 72 72 NW 10 15583 14796 5646 White 10
6 PM Tue 72 72 NW 12 15583 14796 5646 White 10
7 PM Tue 72 72 NW 12 15583 14796 5646 White 10
8 PM Tue 68 68 NW 12 14469 11578 2428 Blue 6
9 PM Tue 65 65 NW 10 11723 9150 0 Blue 3
10 PM Tue 63 63 NW 10 9418 9150 0 Blue 1
11 PM Tue 62 62 NW 9 8724 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 61 61 NW 9 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 59 59 NW 9 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 59 59 N 8 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 58 58 N 8 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 56 56 N 8 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 55 N 7 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 54 54 N 7 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 53 53 N 7 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 55 55 N 7 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 59 59 NE 7 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 58 58 NE 7 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 59 59 E 7 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 60 60 E 7 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 60 60 NE 7 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 61 61 NW 7 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 61 61 W 7 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 61 61 NW 7 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 60 60 NW 7 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 60 60 NW 7 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 60 60 NW 7 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 58 58 N 8 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 57 57 N 8 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 56 56 N 8 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 56 56 N 7 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 55 55 N 7 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 54 54 N 7 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 54 54 N 7 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 54 54 NW 7 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 53 53 N 7 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 52 52 N 7 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 52 52 N 7 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 52 52 N 7 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 55 55 N 8 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 59 59 N 8 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 59 60 N 8 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 60 62 N 8 8724 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 61 64 NE 8 10661 9150 0 Blue 2
1 PM Thu 61 64 N 8 10661 9150 0 Blue 2
2 PM Thu 62 64 N 7 10661 9150 0 Blue 2
3 PM Thu 62 64 NW 7 10661 9150 0 Blue 2
4 PM Thu 62 63 NW 8 9418 9150 0 Blue 1
5 PM Thu 61 61 NW 9 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 61 61 NW 9 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 61 61 NW 8 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 59 59 NW 7 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 57 57 NW 6 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 56 56 NW 6 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 56 56 NW 6 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 55 55 NW 7 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 54 54 NW 7 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 54 54 NW 8 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 53 53 NW 8 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 53 53 NW 8 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 52 52 N 7 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 51 51 N 7 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 51 51 N 7 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 55 55 N 7 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 60 61 NE 6 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 60 63 NE 6 9418 9150 0 Blue 1
11 AM Fri 61 65 NE 6 11723 9150 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Fri 62 67 NE 6 14290 10587 1437 Blue 5
1 PM Fri 62 67 NE 6 14290 10587 1437 Blue 5
2 PM Fri 63 67 NE 6 14290 10587 1437 Blue 5
3 PM Fri 63 66 N 6 13325 9409 259 Blue 4
4 PM Fri 63 64 N 6 10661 9150 0 Blue 2
5 PM Fri 62 62 NW 6 8724 9150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 62 62 NW 6 8724 9150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 62 62 W 6 8724 9150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 60 60 W 6 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 58 58 SW 5 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 58 58 S 5 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 57 57 SE 5 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 56 56 SE 5 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 55 55 SE 5 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 55 55 SE 5 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 54 54 SE 5 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 54 54 E 6 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 53 53 E 6 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 52 52 E 6 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 52 52 E 6 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 57 57 E 7 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 63 65 E 7 11723 9150 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sat 63 66 SE 7 13325 9409 259 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 64 69 SE 7 14931 13134 3984 White 7
12 Noon Sat 65 70 SE 7 15149 14259 5109 White 8
1 PM Sat 66 71 SE 7 15366 14437 5287 White 9
2 PM Sat 67 71 S 6 15366 14437 5287 White 9
3 PM Sat 67 70 SW 5 15149 14259 5109 White 8
4 PM Sat 67 68 W 5 14469 11578 2428 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 66 66 W 3 13325 9409 259 Blue 4
6 PM Sat 65 65 NW 3 11723 9150 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 66 66 W 3 13325 9409 259 Blue 4
8 PM Sat 63 63 W 5 9418 9150 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sat 60 60 SW 5 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 59 59 S 6 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 58 58 S 7 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 57 57 S 7 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 55 55 S 7 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 56 56 S 7 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 55 55 S 7 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 54 54 SE 7 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 52 52 SE 7 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 52 52 SE 7 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 51 51 SE 7 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 57 57 SE 7 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 64 66 SE 8 13325 9409 259 Blue 4
10 AM Sun 64 67 SE 8 14290 10587 1437 Blue 5
11 AM Sun 66 71 SE 8 15366 14437 5287 White 9
12 Noon Sun 67 72 SE 8 15583 14796 5646 White 10
1 PM Sun 67 72 SE 8 15583 14796 5646 White 10
2 PM Sun 69 73 S 7 15801 15249 6099 White 11
3 PM Sun 69 72 S 7 15583 14796 5646 White 10
4 PM Sun 69 71 SW 7 15366 14437 5287 White 9
5 PM Sun 68 68 SW 6 14469 11578 2428 Blue 6
6 PM Sun 67 67 SW 6 14290 10587 1437 Blue 5
7 PM Sun 68 68 SW 6 14469 11578 2428 Blue 6
8 PM Sun 64 64 SW 6 10661 9150 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sun 62 62 SW 6 8724 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 60 60 SW 7 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 59 59 SW 7 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 58 58 SW 7 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 56 56 SW 7 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 57 57 SW 7 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 55 55 SW 7 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 54 54 SW 7 8491 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 53 53 SW 7 8491 9150 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com