Detailed Predictions for: Mt Lemmon
Launch Altitude (f): 9150
LZ Altitude (f): 2370
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

1 DEC 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 33 33 N 12 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 32 32 N 12 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 32 32 N 10 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 34 34 N 10 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 40 40 N 9 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 41 43 N 9 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 42 44 NW 8 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 44 47 NW 8 9356 9150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 43 46 NW 9 8881 9150 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 43 45 NW 10 8395 9150 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 42 43 NW 10 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 40 40 NW 10 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 37 37 NW 12 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 37 37 N 13 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 37 37 N 14 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 35 35 N 14 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 35 35 NE 14 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 35 35 NE 14 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 35 35 NE 14 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 36 36 NE 14 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 34 34 E 14 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 33 33 NE 13 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 32 32 E 13 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 32 32 E 12 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 31 31 NE 12 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 32 32 E 12 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 30 30 SE 12 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 33 33 N 12 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 37 37 E 9 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 37 39 NE 9 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 37 39 NW 8 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 38 41 NW 7 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 39 42 W 6 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 39 41 W 6 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 38 39 W 6 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 36 36 W 7 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 35 35 W 8 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 34 34 NW 9 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 33 33 N 12 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 32 32 NE 13 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 31 31 NE 13 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 30 30 NE 13 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 29 29 E 13 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 29 29 E 14 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 29 29 E 14 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 29 29 E 14 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 28 28 E 14 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 28 28 E 15 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 27 27 E 15 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 26 26 E 16 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 25 25 E 17 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 25 25 E 18 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 25 25 E 18 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 26 27 E 20 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 28 30 E 20 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 29 32 E 18 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 30 32 E 18 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 30 32 E 17 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 29 30 E 17 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 28 28 E 16 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 26 26 E 16 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 25 25 E 17 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 25 25 E 18 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 25 25 E 20 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 25 25 E 20 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 25 25 E 18 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 25 25 E 18 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 25 25 E 18 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 25 25 E 20 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 25 25 E 20 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 24 24 E 20 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 24 24 E 20 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 24 24 E 18 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 23 23 E 17 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 23 23 E 16 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 24 24 E 15 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 25 25 E 15 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 26 27 E 14 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 28 30 E 14 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 30 32 E 14 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 31 33 E 13 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 32 34 E 13 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 31 32 E 12 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 29 29 E 10 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 28 28 E 10 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 27 27 E 12 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 27 27 E 13 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 27 27 E 14 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 27 27 E 14 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 27 27 E 14 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 27 27 E 14 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 27 27 E 15 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 28 28 E 15 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 28 28 E 16 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 28 28 E 16 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 28 28 E 15 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 27 27 E 15 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 27 27 E 15 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 27 27 E 14 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 28 28 E 14 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 29 29 E 14 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 31 32 E 13 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 33 35 E 13 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 35 37 E 13 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 37 39 E 13 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 37 39 E 13 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 36 37 E 13 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 34 34 E 12 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 32 32 E 12 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 32 32 E 13 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 32 32 E 13 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 32 32 E 14 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 32 32 E 14 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 31 31 E 14 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 31 31 E 14 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 31 31 E 14 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 31 31 E 14 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 31 31 E 14 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 31 31 E 14 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 31 31 E 14 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 31 31 E 14 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 30 30 E 14 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 30 30 E 14 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 30 30 E 14 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 31 31 E 13 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 33 34 E 12 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 35 37 E 10 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 37 39 E 10 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 38 40 E 12 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 39 41 E 12 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 38 39 E 12 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 36 36 E 10 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 34 34 E 10 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 33 33 E 12 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 33 33 E 13 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 33 33 E 14 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 33 33 E 14 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 33 33 E 13 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 33 33 E 13 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 33 33 E 13 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 32 32 E 14 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 32 32 E 14 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 32 32 E 14 8307 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 32 32 E 14 8307 9150 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com