Detailed Predictions for: Mt Lemmon
Launch Altitude (f): 9150
LZ Altitude (f): 2370
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 34 34 SE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 35 35 SE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 37 37 SE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 37 37 SE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 41 41 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 44 45 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 44 46 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 44 47 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 44 47 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 44 46 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 44 45 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 44 44 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 42 42 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 38 38 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 39 39 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 39 39 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 39 39 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 38 38 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 37 37 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 37 37 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 36 36 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 35 35 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 35 35 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 35 35 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 35 35 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 35 35 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 36 36 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 36 36 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 37 37 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 38 38 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 38 39 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 38 39 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 38 40 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 38 39 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 38 39 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 37 37 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 35 35 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 32 32 NW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 33 33 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 33 33 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 33 33 NE 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 32 32 E 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 31 31 E 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 31 31 E 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 30 30 E 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 30 30 E 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 29 29 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 29 29 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 30 30 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 30 30 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 32 32 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 33 33 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 38 38 NE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 40 41 NE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 41 43 NE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 41 44 NE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 41 44 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 41 43 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 41 42 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 40 40 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 39 39 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 36 36 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 36 36 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 36 36 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 37 37 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 36 36 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 35 35 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 35 35 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 34 34 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 34 34 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 34 34 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 33 33 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 34 34 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 35 35 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 37 37 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 38 38 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 43 43 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 46 47 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 46 47 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 47 49 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 47 49 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 46 47 SE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 46 47 SE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 46 46 SE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 43 43 SE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 39 39 SE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 40 40 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 40 40 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 40 40 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 39 39 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 38 38 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 37 37 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 36 36 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 36 36 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 35 35 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 35 35 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 35 35 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 36 36 S 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 38 38 S 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 38 38 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 41 41 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 43 44 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 43 45 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 44 46 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 44 46 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 43 45 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 43 44 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 42 42 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 38 38 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 32 32 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 34 34 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 33 33 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 34 34 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 33 33 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 30 30 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 30 30 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 28 28 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 27 27 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 27 27 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 26 26 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 26 26 S 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 27 27 S 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 28 28 SE 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 29 29 E 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 32 32 E 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 34 35 NE 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 34 36 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 34 37 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 34 37 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 34 36 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 34 35 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 34 34 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 31 31 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 28 28 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 29 29 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 28 28 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 29 29 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 28 28 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 27 27 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 26 26 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 26 26 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 25 25 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 25 25 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 24 24 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com