Detailed Predictions for: Mt Lemmon
Launch Altitude (f): 9150
LZ Altitude (f): 2370
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

15 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Mon 55 55 N 9 8156 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 55 55 N 9 8156 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 61 62 N 9 8156 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 64 67 N 8 9886 9150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 66 70 N 6 14958 9850 700 White 2
11 AM Mon 69 74 NW 6 15838 15838 6688 White 6
12 Noon Mon 71 77 NW 7 16494 16494 7344 White 9
1 PM Mon 73 79 W 7 16930 16930 7780 White 11
2 PM Mon 75 80 W 8 17146 17146 7996 White 12
3 PM Mon 75 79 W 9 16930 16930 7780 White 11
4 PM Mon 75 77 W 10 16494 16494 7344 White 9
5 PM Mon 75 76 W 10 16275 16275 7125 White 8
6 PM Mon 75 75 NW 10 16057 16057 6907 White 7
7 PM Mon 73 73 W 10 15619 15619 6469 White 5
8 PM Mon 72 72 NW 10 15399 11153 2003 White 4
9 PM Mon 70 70 NW 10 14958 9850 700 White 2
10 PM Mon 69 69 NW 10 11186 9150 0 Blue 1
11 PM Mon 68 68 NW 10 10723 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 68 68 NW 9 10723 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 67 67 W 9 9886 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 67 67 W 10 9886 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 67 67 NW 10 9886 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 67 67 NW 10 9886 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 66 66 NW 10 8650 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 66 66 NW 9 8650 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 66 66 NW 8 8650 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 69 70 W 7 14958 9850 700 White 2
9 AM Tue 70 73 SW 6 15619 15619 6469 White 5
10 AM Tue 72 76 W 6 16275 16275 7125 White 8
11 AM Tue 73 78 W 6 16712 16712 7562 White 10
12 Noon Tue 74 79 W 7 16930 16930 7780 White 11
1 PM Tue 75 81 W 8 17356 17356 8206 White 13
2 PM Tue 76 81 W 9 17356 17356 8206 White 13
3 PM Tue 76 80 W 10 17146 17146 7996 White 12
4 PM Tue 76 78 W 10 16712 16712 7562 White 10
5 PM Tue 76 77 W 10 16494 16494 7344 White 9
6 PM Tue 75 75 W 10 16057 16057 6907 White 7
7 PM Tue 73 73 W 10 15619 15619 6469 White 5
8 PM Tue 73 73 W 10 15619 15619 6469 White 5
9 PM Tue 70 70 W 10 14958 9850 700 White 2
10 PM Tue 68 68 W 10 10723 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 68 68 W 12 10723 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 67 67 SW 12 9886 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 66 66 SW 12 8650 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 67 67 S 12 9886 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 66 66 S 12 8650 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 66 66 S 12 8650 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 65 65 S 12 8156 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 65 65 S 12 8156 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 65 65 S 12 8156 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 67 68 S 10 10723 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 68 70 S 10 14958 9850 700 White 2
10 AM Wed 68 71 SW 10 15178 10696 1546 White 3
11 AM Wed 69 73 SW 9 15619 15619 6469 White 5
12 Noon Wed 70 74 W 9 15838 15838 6688 White 6
1 PM Wed 70 74 W 10 15838 15838 6688 White 6
2 PM Wed 71 74 W 10 15838 15838 6688 White 6
3 PM Wed 71 73 W 12 15619 15619 6469 White 5
4 PM Wed 71 72 W 12 15399 11153 2003 White 4
5 PM Wed 71 71 W 12 15178 10696 1546 White 3
6 PM Wed 71 71 W 12 15178 10696 1546 White 3
7 PM Wed 69 69 W 12 11186 9150 0 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 69 69 W 12 11186 9150 0 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 66 66 SW 12 8650 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 65 65 SW 12 8156 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 64 64 SW 12 8156 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 64 64 SW 12 8156 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 64 64 SW 12 8156 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 64 64 SW 10 8156 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 63 63 S 10 8156 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 63 63 SW 10 8156 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 63 63 SW 10 8156 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 62 62 SW 10 8156 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 62 62 W 9 8156 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 64 64 W 9 8156 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 65 66 W 8 8650 9150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 66 68 W 8 10723 9150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 66 68 W 9 10723 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 67 70 W 9 14958 9850 700 White 2
1 PM Thu 68 71 W 9 15178 10696 1546 White 3
2 PM Thu 68 71 W 10 15178 10696 1546 White 3
3 PM Thu 68 71 W 10 15178 10696 1546 White 3
4 PM Thu 68 69 W 10 11186 9150 0 Blue 1
5 PM Thu 68 68 NW 10 10723 9150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 68 68 NW 10 10723 9150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 67 67 NW 10 9886 9150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 66 66 W 10 8650 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 65 65 W 10 8156 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 64 64 W 10 8156 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 64 64 W 10 8156 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 63 63 W 10 8156 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 63 63 W 10 8156 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 63 63 W 10 8156 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 63 63 SW 10 8156 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 62 62 SW 10 8156 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 62 62 SW 10 8156 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 62 62 SW 10 8156 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 62 62 SW 10 8156 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 65 66 W 9 8650 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 66 68 W 9 10723 9150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 67 70 W 9 14958 9850 700 White 2
11 AM Fri 68 72 NW 10 15399 11153 2003 White 4
12 Noon Fri 68 72 NW 10 15399 11153 2003 White 4
1 PM Fri 69 73 NW 10 15619 15619 6469 White 5
2 PM Fri 70 73 W 10 15619 15619 6469 White 5
3 PM Fri 70 73 W 10 15619 15619 6469 White 5
4 PM Fri 70 72 W 10 15399 11153 2003 White 4
5 PM Fri 70 71 NW 10 15178 10696 1546 White 3
6 PM Fri 70 70 NW 10 14958 9850 700 White 2
7 PM Fri 68 68 NW 10 10723 9150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 68 68 NW 12 10723 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 66 66 NW 12 8650 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 65 65 W 12 8156 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 65 65 W 12 8156 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 64 64 W 12 8156 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 64 64 W 12 8156 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 64 64 SW 12 8156 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 64 64 SW 12 8156 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 64 64 SW 12 8156 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 63 63 S 12 8156 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 63 63 S 12 8156 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 63 63 S 12 8156 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 65 66 SW 10 8650 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 66 68 SW 10 10723 9150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 66 70 W 10 14958 9850 700 White 2
11 AM Sat 67 72 W 9 15399 11153 2003 White 4
12 Noon Sat 68 74 W 9 15838 15838 6688 White 6
1 PM Sat 68 73 W 9 15619 15619 6469 White 5
2 PM Sat 69 73 W 10 15619 15619 6469 White 5
3 PM Sat 69 72 W 10 15399 11153 2003 White 4
4 PM Sat 69 71 W 10 15178 10696 1546 White 3
5 PM Sat 69 70 W 12 14958 9850 700 White 2
6 PM Sat 69 69 W 12 11186 9150 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sat 67 67 W 12 9886 9150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 67 67 W 13 9886 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 65 65 W 13 8156 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 64 64 W 12 8156 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 63 63 W 12 8156 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 63 63 W 10 8156 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 62 62 W 10 8156 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 62 62 SW 12 8156 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 62 62 SW 12 8156 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 62 62 SW 12 8156 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 62 62 SW 10 8156 9150 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com