Detailed Predictions for: Mt Lemmon
Launch Altitude (f): 9150
LZ Altitude (f): 2370
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

26 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sun 42 42 S 20 8399 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 42 43 S 20 8399 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 44 46 S 21 8399 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 43 47 S 21 8721 9150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 44 50 S 22 9620 9150 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 46 54 S 24 12999 9801 651 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 47 56 SW 25 15131 12553 3403 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 49 57 SW 25 15863 12946 3796 Blue 10
2 PM Sun 50 57 SW 24 15863 12946 3796 Blue 10
3 PM Sun 51 56 SW 24 15131 12553 3403 Blue 9
4 PM Sun 51 54 SW 23 12999 9801 651 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 51 52 SW 24 12198 9286 136 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 50 50 SW 22 9620 9150 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sun 47 47 SW 22 8721 9150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 46 46 SW 21 8399 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 44 44 SW 18 8399 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 42 42 SW 17 8399 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 41 41 SW 18 8399 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 40 40 SW 18 8399 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 40 40 SW 18 8399 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 40 40 SW 20 8399 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 39 39 SW 20 8399 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 38 38 SW 20 8399 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 38 38 SW 18 8399 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 38 38 SW 18 8399 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 37 37 SW 17 8399 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 39 41 SW 17 8399 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 38 41 SW 16 8399 9150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 39 43 SW 16 8399 9150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 40 45 SW 17 8399 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 42 49 SW 17 9293 9150 0 Blue 2
1 PM Mon 43 51 SW 18 9807 9150 0 Blue 4
2 PM Mon 45 52 W 18 12198 9286 136 Blue 5
3 PM Mon 45 50 W 20 9620 9150 0 Blue 3
4 PM Mon 46 49 W 20 9293 9150 0 Blue 2
5 PM Mon 46 47 W 20 8721 9150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 44 44 W 20 8399 9150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 42 42 W 18 8399 9150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 41 41 W 18 8399 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 39 39 W 17 8399 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 38 38 W 16 8399 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 37 37 W 15 8399 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 36 36 W 15 8399 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 36 36 W 14 8399 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 36 36 SW 13 8399 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 36 36 SW 13 8399 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 35 35 SW 13 8399 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 35 35 SW 12 8399 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 34 34 SW 12 8399 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 34 35 SW 12 8399 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 38 40 SW 12 8399 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 36 39 SW 12 8399 9150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 38 43 SW 12 8399 9150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 40 47 SW 12 8721 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 44 52 SW 13 12198 9286 136 Blue 5
1 PM Tue 47 54 W 13 12999 9801 651 Blue 7
2 PM Tue 49 54 W 14 12999 9801 651 Blue 7
3 PM Tue 51 54 W 15 12999 9801 651 Blue 7
4 PM Tue 52 54 W 15 12999 9801 651 Blue 7
5 PM Tue 52 53 W 15 12601 9615 465 Blue 6
6 PM Tue 50 50 W 16 9620 9150 0 Blue 3
7 PM Tue 48 48 W 16 8974 9150 0 Blue 1
8 PM Tue 46 46 W 16 8399 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 44 44 W 16 8399 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 43 43 W 15 8399 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 42 42 W 15 8399 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 41 41 W 14 8399 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 41 41 W 14 8399 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 41 41 W 14 8399 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 40 40 W 13 8399 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 40 40 W 13 8399 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 39 39 W 12 8399 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 39 39 SW 12 8399 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 39 40 SW 12 8399 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 42 44 SW 12 8399 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 41 45 SW 12 8399 9150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 42 48 SW 13 8974 9150 0 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 45 53 SW 13 12601 9615 465 Blue 6
12 Noon Wed 48 57 SW 13 15863 12946 3796 Blue 10
1 PM Wed 51 60 SW 13 18480 15534 6384 Blue 13
2 PM Wed 53 60 SW 13 18480 15534 6384 Blue 13
3 PM Wed 54 60 SW 14 18480 15534 6384 Blue 13
4 PM Wed 56 59 W 14 16978 15022 5872 Blue 12
5 PM Wed 55 56 W 14 15131 12553 3403 Blue 9
6 PM Wed 54 54 W 15 12999 9801 651 Blue 7
7 PM Wed 52 52 W 15 12198 9286 136 Blue 5
8 PM Wed 50 50 W 15 9620 9150 0 Blue 3
9 PM Wed 48 48 W 15 8974 9150 0 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 47 47 W 15 8721 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 46 46 W 15 8399 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 45 45 W 14 8399 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 45 45 W 14 8399 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 45 45 W 14 8399 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 44 44 SW 14 8399 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 44 44 SW 14 8399 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 43 43 S 13 8399 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 43 43 S 13 8399 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 42 43 S 13 8399 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 46 48 S 13 8974 9150 0 Blue 1
9 AM Thu 45 49 SW 13 9293 9150 0 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 46 53 SW 13 12601 9615 465 Blue 6
11 AM Thu 49 57 SW 13 15863 12946 3796 Blue 10
12 Noon Thu 53 62 SW 13 19375 16847 7697 Blue 15
1 PM Thu 55 64 SW 14 19996 18950 9800 Blue 17
2 PM Thu 57 64 SW 14 19996 18950 9800 Blue 17
3 PM Thu 59 65 SW 14 20430 19263 10113 Blue 18
4 PM Thu 60 63 SW 14 19687 18058 8908 Blue 16
5 PM Thu 60 61 W 14 19060 16590 7440 Blue 14
6 PM Thu 58 58 W 15 16657 13333 4183 Blue 11
7 PM Thu 55 55 W 15 13390 12154 3004 Blue 8
8 PM Thu 54 54 W 15 12999 9801 651 Blue 7
9 PM Thu 51 51 W 15 9807 9150 0 Blue 4
10 PM Thu 50 50 W 15 9620 9150 0 Blue 3
11 PM Thu 49 49 W 15 9293 9150 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Fri 47 47 W 14 8721 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 48 48 W 14 8974 9150 0 Blue 1
2 AM Fri 47 47 SW 14 8721 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 47 47 SW 14 8721 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 46 46 SW 14 8399 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 45 45 S 13 8399 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 45 45 S 13 8399 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 45 46 S 13 8399 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 48 50 S 13 9620 9150 0 Blue 3
9 AM Fri 46 50 SW 13 9620 9150 0 Blue 3
10 AM Fri 48 54 SW 13 12999 9801 651 Blue 7
11 AM Fri 50 58 SW 14 16657 13333 4183 Blue 11
12 Noon Fri 54 63 SW 14 19687 18058 8908 Blue 16
1 PM Fri 56 65 SW 14 20430 19263 10113 Blue 18
2 PM Fri 58 65 SW 14 20430 19263 10113 Blue 18
3 PM Fri 60 66 SW 15 21116 19572 10422 Blue 19
4 PM Fri 61 64 SW 15 19996 18950 9800 Blue 17
5 PM Fri 60 61 SW 15 19060 16590 7440 Blue 14
6 PM Fri 59 59 W 16 16978 15022 5872 Blue 12
7 PM Fri 56 56 W 16 15131 12553 3403 Blue 9
8 PM Fri 54 54 W 15 12999 9801 651 Blue 7
9 PM Fri 52 52 W 15 12198 9286 136 Blue 5
10 PM Fri 51 51 W 14 9807 9150 0 Blue 4
11 PM Fri 50 50 W 14 9620 9150 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sat 48 48 W 14 8974 9150 0 Blue 1
1 AM Sat 48 48 SW 13 8974 9150 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sat 48 48 SW 13 8974 9150 0 Blue 1
3 AM Sat 48 48 SW 13 8974 9150 0 Blue 1
4 AM Sat 47 47 SW 13 8721 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 46 46 SW 12 8399 9150 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com