Detailed Predictions for: Mt Lemmon
Launch Altitude (f): 9150
LZ Altitude (f): 2370
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

19 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 44 44 SW 7 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 43 43 SW 7 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 41 41 SW 7 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 45 45 SW 8 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 49 49 SW 8 8794 9150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 51 51 S 8 11518 9150 0 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 51 51 S 7 11518 9150 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Tue 51 51 S 8 11518 9150 0 Blue 2
1 PM Tue 47 47 S 7 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 45 45 S 8 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 44 44 S 10 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 43 43 S 9 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 43 43 SE 9 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 45 45 SE 10 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 44 44 S 14 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 44 44 S 16 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 44 44 S 18 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 44 44 S 20 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 44 44 S 22 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 44 44 S 25 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 43 43 S 26 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 42 42 S 29 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 40 40 S 29 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 40 40 S 22 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 39 39 SW 29 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 39 39 SW 29 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 39 39 S 25 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 38 38 SW 26 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 33 33 S 25 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 29 29 S 26 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 28 28 S 25 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 28 28 S 25 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 28 28 S 25 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 28 28 S 25 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 28 28 S 26 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 28 28 S 29 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 28 28 S 24 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 28 28 S 23 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 29 29 S 30 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 33 33 SW 28 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 35 35 SW 25 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 36 36 SW 23 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 36 36 SW 22 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 37 37 SW 22 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 37 37 SW 23 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 37 37 SW 24 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 37 37 SW 23 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 36 36 SW 21 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 36 36 SW 18 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 36 36 SW 17 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 36 36 SW 17 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 33 33 SW 16 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 34 34 SW 15 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 32 32 SW 15 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 30 30 SW 15 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 29 29 SW 15 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 29 29 SW 14 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 29 29 SW 14 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 28 28 SW 13 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 28 28 W 14 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 28 28 W 13 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 28 28 W 12 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 28 28 W 10 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 29 29 SW 9 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 30 30 SW 8 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 30 30 SW 8 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 31 31 SW 7 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 31 31 SW 6 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 31 31 SW 6 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 32 32 SW 6 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 32 32 SW 5 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 32 32 SW 5 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 32 32 SW 6 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 31 31 SW 7 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 31 31 SW 8 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 31 31 SW 10 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 31 31 SW 13 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 32 33 SW 14 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 32 34 W 15 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 32 33 W 15 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 32 32 W 15 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 32 32 W 14 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 31 31 W 13 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 30 30 NW 12 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 30 30 NW 10 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 30 30 NW 9 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 30 30 W 9 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 30 30 W 8 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 30 30 W 8 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 30 30 W 7 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 30 30 SW 7 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 30 30 SW 7 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 31 31 S 6 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 30 30 S 6 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 30 30 S 6 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 30 30 S 6 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 30 30 S 6 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 30 30 SW 7 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 31 31 SW 7 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 32 32 W 8 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 34 34 W 9 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 35 36 NW 10 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 37 39 NW 10 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 38 40 NW 10 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 39 41 NW 10 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 39 41 NW 10 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 38 39 N 10 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 36 36 N 9 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 35 35 N 9 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 34 34 N 9 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 34 34 NW 8 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 34 34 NW 8 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 34 34 W 8 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 34 34 W 7 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 34 34 W 7 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 34 34 SW 7 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 34 34 SW 6 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 34 34 SW 6 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 34 34 SW 6 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 34 34 SW 6 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 34 34 SW 6 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 34 34 SW 7 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 35 35 SW 8 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 36 36 SW 9 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 38 38 W 10 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 40 41 W 10 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 41 42 W 12 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 41 43 W 12 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 41 42 W 12 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 41 42 W 12 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 39 39 W 10 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 38 38 W 10 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 36 36 W 9 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 35 35 W 9 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 35 35 W 8 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 35 35 W 8 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 35 35 W 8 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 35 35 SW 7 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 36 36 SW 7 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 36 36 SW 7 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 36 36 SW 7 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 36 36 SW 7 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 36 36 SW 6 8652 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 36 36 SW 6 8652 9150 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com