Detailed Predictions for: Mt Lemmon
Launch Altitude (f): 9150
LZ Altitude (f): 2370
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

27 MAY 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sun 42 42 SW 13 8271 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 43 44 SW 12 8271 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 47 49 SW 10 8271 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 50 54 SW 9 9466 9150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 53 59 SW 8 10603 9915 765 Blue 5
11 AM Sun 56 64 SW 9 13384 11466 2316 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 59 67 SW 9 15044 13299 4149 Blue 13
1 PM Sun 62 70 SW 10 18149 14939 5789 Blue 16
2 PM Sun 65 72 SW 12 18845 16908 7758 Blue 18
3 PM Sun 65 70 SW 13 18149 14939 5789 Blue 16
4 PM Sun 66 69 W 14 17259 14410 5260 Blue 15
5 PM Sun 65 66 W 14 14509 12713 3563 Blue 12
6 PM Sun 63 63 W 14 12789 10821 1671 Blue 9
7 PM Sun 60 60 W 14 10841 10130 980 Blue 6
8 PM Sun 59 59 W 14 10603 9915 765 Blue 5
9 PM Sun 56 56 W 13 9922 9150 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 54 54 W 13 9466 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 52 52 W 13 8810 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 50 50 W 13 8271 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 49 49 W 12 8271 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 48 48 W 12 8271 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 48 48 SW 10 8271 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 47 47 W 10 8271 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 46 46 W 9 8271 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 46 46 W 9 8271 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 47 48 W 8 8271 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 51 53 W 7 9139 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 54 58 W 6 10370 9699 549 Blue 4
10 AM Mon 57 63 W 6 12789 10821 1671 Blue 9
11 AM Mon 60 67 W 7 15044 13299 4149 Blue 13
12 Noon Mon 63 71 W 8 18499 15453 6303 Blue 17
1 PM Mon 66 74 W 9 19773 18387 9237 Blue 20
2 PM Mon 68 75 W 10 20274 18731 9581 Blue 21
3 PM Mon 69 74 W 12 19773 18387 9237 Blue 20
4 PM Mon 70 73 W 13 19256 18040 8890 Blue 19
5 PM Mon 68 69 W 13 17259 14410 5260 Blue 15
6 PM Mon 67 67 W 13 15044 13299 4149 Blue 13
7 PM Mon 64 64 W 13 13384 11466 2316 Blue 10
8 PM Mon 63 63 W 14 12789 10821 1671 Blue 9
9 PM Mon 60 60 W 14 10841 10130 980 Blue 6
10 PM Mon 58 58 W 13 10370 9699 549 Blue 4
11 PM Mon 56 56 W 12 9922 9150 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Tue 54 54 W 12 9466 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 53 53 W 10 9139 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 52 52 NW 9 8810 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 52 52 NW 8 8810 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 51 51 NW 8 8478 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 50 50 NW 9 8271 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 50 50 NW 9 8271 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 51 51 NW 9 8478 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 55 57 NW 9 10139 9459 309 Blue 3
9 AM Tue 58 62 W 9 12170 10590 1440 Blue 8
10 AM Tue 60 65 W 9 13956 12103 2953 Blue 11
11 AM Tue 63 70 W 9 18149 14939 5789 Blue 16
12 Noon Tue 66 73 W 9 19256 18040 8890 Blue 19
1 PM Tue 69 76 W 9 21774 19075 9925 Blue 22
2 PM Tue 71 77 W 10 23132 19588 10438 Blue 23
3 PM Tue 72 77 W 10 23132 19588 10438 Blue 23
4 PM Tue 72 75 W 12 20274 18731 9581 Blue 21
5 PM Tue 71 72 W 12 18845 16908 7758 Blue 18
6 PM Tue 69 69 W 12 17259 14410 5260 Blue 15
7 PM Tue 67 67 W 13 15044 13299 4149 Blue 13
8 PM Tue 65 65 W 13 13956 12103 2953 Blue 11
9 PM Tue 62 62 W 13 12170 10590 1440 Blue 8
10 PM Tue 59 59 W 13 10603 9915 765 Blue 5
11 PM Tue 57 57 W 12 10139 9459 309 Blue 3
12 Midnight Wed 56 56 W 12 9922 9150 0 Blue 2
1 AM Wed 55 55 SW 12 9706 9150 0 Blue 1
2 AM Wed 54 54 SW 10 9466 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 53 53 SW 10 9139 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 52 52 SW 9 8810 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 51 51 SW 9 8478 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 50 50 S 9 8271 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 52 53 SW 9 9139 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 56 58 SW 10 10370 9699 549 Blue 4
9 AM Wed 58 62 SW 12 12170 10590 1440 Blue 8
10 AM Wed 61 67 SW 12 15044 13299 4149 Blue 13
11 AM Wed 64 72 SW 13 18845 16908 7758 Blue 18
12 Noon Wed 67 75 SW 14 20274 18731 9581 Blue 21
1 PM Wed 69 77 SW 15 23132 19588 10438 Blue 23
2 PM Wed 72 79 SW 15 23860 21050 11900 White 25
3 PM Wed 72 77 SW 16 23132 19588 10438 Blue 23
4 PM Wed 73 76 SW 16 21774 19075 9925 Blue 22
5 PM Wed 72 73 SW 17 19256 18040 8890 Blue 19
6 PM Wed 69 69 SW 17 17259 14410 5260 Blue 15
7 PM Wed 67 67 SW 16 15044 13299 4149 Blue 13
8 PM Wed 65 65 SW 16 13956 12103 2953 Blue 11
9 PM Wed 61 61 SW 16 11522 10359 1209 Blue 7
10 PM Wed 59 59 SW 15 10603 9915 765 Blue 5
11 PM Wed 56 56 SW 15 9922 9150 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Thu 54 54 SW 14 9466 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 54 54 SW 14 9466 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 52 52 SW 14 8810 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 52 52 S 13 8810 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 51 51 S 13 8478 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 50 50 S 13 8271 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 49 49 S 14 8271 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 50 51 S 14 8478 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 55 57 S 15 10139 9459 309 Blue 3
9 AM Thu 57 61 S 15 11522 10359 1209 Blue 7
10 AM Thu 60 66 S 16 14509 12713 3563 Blue 12
11 AM Thu 63 70 S 17 18149 14939 5789 Blue 16
12 Noon Thu 66 74 S 18 19773 18387 9237 Blue 20
1 PM Thu 68 75 SW 18 20274 18731 9581 Blue 21
2 PM Thu 71 77 SW 20 23132 19588 10438 Blue 23
3 PM Thu 71 76 SW 20 21774 19075 9925 Blue 22
4 PM Thu 72 75 SW 21 20274 18731 9581 Blue 21
5 PM Thu 71 72 SW 21 18845 16908 7758 Blue 18
6 PM Thu 68 68 SW 21 15804 13864 4714 Blue 14
7 PM Thu 66 66 SW 20 14509 12713 3563 Blue 12
8 PM Thu 64 64 SW 20 13384 11466 2316 Blue 10
9 PM Thu 60 60 SW 18 10841 10130 980 Blue 6
10 PM Thu 58 58 SW 17 10370 9699 549 Blue 4
11 PM Thu 55 55 SW 16 9706 9150 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Fri 54 54 SW 15 9466 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 53 53 SW 15 9139 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 51 51 SW 15 8478 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 51 51 SW 14 8478 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 50 50 SW 15 8271 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 49 49 S 15 8271 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 48 48 S 15 8271 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 50 51 S 15 8478 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 54 56 SW 16 9922 9150 0 Blue 2
9 AM Fri 57 61 SW 16 11522 10359 1209 Blue 7
10 AM Fri 60 66 SW 17 14509 12713 3563 Blue 12
11 AM Fri 63 70 SW 17 18149 14939 5789 Blue 16
12 Noon Fri 66 74 SW 18 19773 18387 9237 Blue 20
1 PM Fri 69 77 SW 18 23132 19588 10438 Blue 23
2 PM Fri 72 79 SW 18 23860 21050 11900 White 25
3 PM Fri 72 77 SW 18 23132 19588 10438 Blue 23
4 PM Fri 73 76 W 17 21774 19075 9925 Blue 22
5 PM Fri 71 72 W 17 18845 16908 7758 Blue 18
6 PM Fri 69 69 W 16 17259 14410 5260 Blue 15
7 PM Fri 66 66 W 15 14509 12713 3563 Blue 12
8 PM Fri 64 64 SW 14 13384 11466 2316 Blue 10
9 PM Fri 60 60 SW 12 10841 10130 980 Blue 6
10 PM Fri 58 58 S 10 10370 9699 549 Blue 4
11 PM Fri 56 56 S 9 9922 9150 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sat 54 54 S 8 9466 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 53 53 S 7 9139 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 51 51 S 7 8478 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 51 51 S 7 8478 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 50 50 S 7 8271 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 49 49 SE 7 8271 9150 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com