Detailed Predictions for: Mt Lemmon
Launch Altitude (f): 9150
LZ Altitude (f): 2370
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

19 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 41 41 SE 12 7431 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 41 41 SE 12 7431 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 42 42 SE 12 7431 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 49 49 SE 12 9990 9666 516 Blue 5
9 AM Sun 56 57 SE 9 13162 11229 2079 Blue 13
10 AM Sun 59 61 SE 7 16392 14083 4933 Blue 17
11 AM Sun 61 64 SE 6 16966 16288 7138 Blue 19
12 Noon Sun 63 66 S 5 18266 16724 7574 Blue 21
1 PM Sun 63 66 SW 3 18266 16724 7574 Blue 21
2 PM Sun 63 65 W 5 17156 16534 7384 Blue 20
3 PM Sun 62 63 W 5 16775 15748 6598 Blue 18
4 PM Sun 59 59 W 5 15224 12068 2918 Blue 15
5 PM Sun 58 58 W 5 14262 11652 2502 Blue 14
6 PM Sun 53 53 W 5 10955 10482 1332 Blue 9
7 PM Sun 52 52 W 3 10694 9967 817 Blue 8
8 PM Sun 51 51 W 3 10585 9850 700 Blue 7
9 PM Sun 50 50 W 5 10487 9758 608 Blue 6
10 PM Sun 50 50 W 5 10487 9758 608 Blue 6
11 PM Sun 48 48 W 6 9854 9573 423 Blue 4
12 Midnight Mon 46 46 W 6 9668 9150 0 Blue 2
1 AM Mon 46 46 W 6 9668 9150 0 Blue 2
2 AM Mon 44 44 W 6 7431 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 43 43 W 6 7431 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 42 42 W 7 7431 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 41 41 W 8 7431 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 41 41 W 8 7431 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 42 42 W 7 7431 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 48 48 W 7 9854 9573 423 Blue 4
9 AM Mon 55 55 W 7 11691 10678 1528 Blue 11
10 AM Mon 58 59 W 6 15224 12068 2918 Blue 15
11 AM Mon 60 62 W 6 16583 15035 5885 Blue 17
12 Noon Mon 61 63 W 6 16775 15748 6598 Blue 18
1 PM Mon 62 64 W 7 16966 16288 7138 Blue 19
2 PM Mon 62 64 W 8 16966 16288 7138 Blue 19
3 PM Mon 60 61 W 8 16392 14083 4933 Blue 17
4 PM Mon 58 58 W 9 14262 11652 2502 Blue 14
5 PM Mon 58 58 W 9 14262 11652 2502 Blue 14
6 PM Mon 53 53 W 9 10955 10482 1332 Blue 9
7 PM Mon 53 53 W 9 10955 10482 1332 Blue 9
8 PM Mon 52 52 W 9 10694 9967 817 Blue 8
9 PM Mon 50 50 W 8 10487 9758 608 Blue 6
10 PM Mon 50 50 W 8 10487 9758 608 Blue 6
11 PM Mon 49 49 W 8 9990 9666 516 Blue 5
12 Midnight Tue 48 48 NW 8 9854 9573 423 Blue 4
1 AM Tue 47 47 NW 8 9761 9150 0 Blue 3
2 AM Tue 46 46 NW 8 9668 9150 0 Blue 2
3 AM Tue 45 45 NW 7 9576 9150 0 Blue 1
4 AM Tue 44 44 N 6 7431 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 43 43 N 5 7431 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 43 43 N 5 7431 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 44 44 N 5 7431 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 51 51 N 6 10585 9850 700 Blue 7
9 AM Tue 58 58 N 7 14262 11652 2502 Blue 14
10 AM Tue 61 62 NE 7 16583 15035 5885 Blue 17
11 AM Tue 63 65 NE 8 17156 16534 7384 Blue 20
12 Noon Tue 64 66 NE 8 18266 16724 7574 Blue 21
1 PM Tue 65 67 NE 8 19156 16914 7764 White 22
2 PM Tue 65 67 NE 9 19156 16914 7764 White 22
3 PM Tue 63 64 NE 9 16966 16288 7138 Blue 19
4 PM Tue 62 62 NE 9 16583 15035 5885 Blue 17
5 PM Tue 61 61 NE 9 16392 14083 4933 Blue 17
6 PM Tue 56 56 NE 9 12112 10938 1788 Blue 12
7 PM Tue 55 55 NE 10 11691 10678 1528 Blue 11
8 PM Tue 54 54 NE 10 11263 10579 1429 Blue 10
9 PM Tue 53 53 NE 10 10955 10482 1332 Blue 9
10 PM Tue 53 53 NE 10 10955 10482 1332 Blue 9
11 PM Tue 52 52 NE 12 10694 9967 817 Blue 8
12 Midnight Wed 50 50 NE 12 10487 9758 608 Blue 6
1 AM Wed 50 50 E 12 10487 9758 608 Blue 6
2 AM Wed 48 48 E 12 9854 9573 423 Blue 4
3 AM Wed 47 47 E 12 9761 9150 0 Blue 3
4 AM Wed 46 46 E 12 9668 9150 0 Blue 2
5 AM Wed 46 46 E 12 9668 9150 0 Blue 2
6 AM Wed 45 45 E 12 9576 9150 0 Blue 1
7 AM Wed 46 46 E 13 9668 9150 0 Blue 2
8 AM Wed 53 53 E 13 10955 10482 1332 Blue 9
9 AM Wed 60 60 E 14 15877 12997 3847 Blue 16
10 AM Wed 63 64 E 14 16966 16288 7138 Blue 19
11 AM Wed 65 67 E 14 19156 16914 7764 White 22
12 Noon Wed 67 70 E 14 19772 19092 9942 White 25
1 PM Wed 68 70 E 13 19772 19092 9942 White 25
2 PM Wed 67 69 E 13 19567 17824 8674 White 24
3 PM Wed 66 67 NE 12 19156 16914 7764 White 22
4 PM Wed 64 64 NE 12 16966 16288 7138 Blue 19
5 PM Wed 63 63 NE 12 16775 15748 6598 Blue 18
6 PM Wed 58 58 NE 10 14262 11652 2502 Blue 14
7 PM Wed 58 58 NE 12 14262 11652 2502 Blue 14
8 PM Wed 57 57 NE 12 13162 11229 2079 Blue 13
9 PM Wed 56 56 E 12 12112 10938 1788 Blue 12
10 PM Wed 55 55 E 12 11691 10678 1528 Blue 11
11 PM Wed 54 54 E 12 11263 10579 1429 Blue 10
12 Midnight Thu 52 52 E 12 10694 9967 817 Blue 8
1 AM Thu 52 52 E 10 10694 9967 817 Blue 8
2 AM Thu 50 50 E 10 10487 9758 608 Blue 6
3 AM Thu 49 49 E 10 9990 9666 516 Blue 5
4 AM Thu 48 48 E 9 9854 9573 423 Blue 4
5 AM Thu 48 48 E 9 9854 9573 423 Blue 4
6 AM Thu 47 47 E 9 9761 9150 0 Blue 3
7 AM Thu 48 48 E 9 9854 9573 423 Blue 4
8 AM Thu 52 52 E 10 10694 9967 817 Blue 8
9 AM Thu 57 58 E 10 14262 11652 2502 Blue 14
10 AM Thu 59 61 E 10 16392 14083 4933 Blue 17
11 AM Thu 60 63 E 10 16775 15748 6598 Blue 18
12 Noon Thu 62 65 E 10 17156 16534 7384 Blue 20
1 PM Thu 62 65 E 9 17156 16534 7384 Blue 20
2 PM Thu 62 64 NE 8 16966 16288 7138 Blue 19
3 PM Thu 61 62 NE 8 16583 15035 5885 Blue 17
4 PM Thu 60 60 NE 7 15877 12997 3847 Blue 16
5 PM Thu 59 59 NE 7 15224 12068 2918 Blue 15
6 PM Thu 55 55 NE 7 11691 10678 1528 Blue 11
7 PM Thu 55 55 NE 8 11691 10678 1528 Blue 11
8 PM Thu 54 54 NE 8 11263 10579 1429 Blue 10
9 PM Thu 53 53 E 9 10955 10482 1332 Blue 9
10 PM Thu 53 53 E 9 10955 10482 1332 Blue 9
11 PM Thu 52 52 E 9 10694 9967 817 Blue 8
12 Midnight Fri 51 51 E 8 10585 9850 700 Blue 7
1 AM Fri 51 51 E 8 10585 9850 700 Blue 7
2 AM Fri 50 50 E 7 10487 9758 608 Blue 6
3 AM Fri 49 49 E 6 9990 9666 516 Blue 5
4 AM Fri 48 48 E 5 9854 9573 423 Blue 4
5 AM Fri 48 48 E 5 9854 9573 423 Blue 4
6 AM Fri 47 47 E 5 9761 9150 0 Blue 3
7 AM Fri 48 48 E 6 9854 9573 423 Blue 4
8 AM Fri 52 52 SE 6 10694 9967 817 Blue 8
9 AM Fri 56 57 SE 7 13162 11229 2079 Blue 13
10 AM Fri 58 60 S 8 15877 12997 3847 Blue 16
11 AM Fri 59 62 S 8 16583 15035 5885 Blue 17
12 Noon Fri 60 63 S 8 16775 15748 6598 Blue 18
1 PM Fri 60 63 SW 8 16775 15748 6598 Blue 18
2 PM Fri 60 62 SW 7 16583 15035 5885 Blue 17
3 PM Fri 60 61 SW 7 16392 14083 4933 Blue 17
4 PM Fri 58 58 W 6 14262 11652 2502 Blue 14
5 PM Fri 58 58 W 6 14262 11652 2502 Blue 14
6 PM Fri 54 54 W 6 11263 10579 1429 Blue 10
7 PM Fri 54 54 W 6 11263 10579 1429 Blue 10
8 PM Fri 53 53 W 6 10955 10482 1332 Blue 9
9 PM Fri 52 52 W 6 10694 9967 817 Blue 8
10 PM Fri 52 52 W 6 10694 9967 817 Blue 8
11 PM Fri 52 52 W 6 10694 9967 817 Blue 8
12 Midnight Sat 50 50 W 6 10487 9758 608 Blue 6
1 AM Sat 50 50 W 6 10487 9758 608 Blue 6
2 AM Sat 49 49 W 6 9990 9666 516 Blue 5
3 AM Sat 48 48 W 6 9854 9573 423 Blue 4
4 AM Sat 48 48 W 6 9854 9573 423 Blue 4

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com