Detailed Predictions for: Mt Ord
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.9047, -111.4083, 7125
LZ Altitude (f): 2300
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

2 OCT 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 75 75 E 8 15 14942 14942 7817 White 16
1 AM Sun 73 73 E 6 9 14519 14064 6939 White 14
2 AM Sun 73 73 ESE 1 1 14519 14064 6939 White 14
3 AM Sun 72 72 SE 3 4 14308 13812 6687 White 13
4 AM Sun 72 72 ESE 2 3 14308 13812 6687 White 13
5 AM Sun 71 71 ENE 1 2 14095 13541 6416 White 12
6 AM Sun 72 72 NNE 5 8 14308 13812 6687 White 13
7 AM Sun 68 68 NE 4 7 13453 12285 5160 White 9
8 AM Sun 69 69 NE 4 8 13667 13064 5939 White 10
9 AM Sun 75 77 NE 4 5 15364 15364 8239 White 18
10 AM Sun 80 83 NE 2 3 16616 16616 9491 White 24
11 AM Sun 87 92 NE 1 1 18453 18453 11328 White 33
12 Noon Sun 90 96 S 1 2 19312 19312 12187 White 37
1 PM Sun 91 97 S 4 5 19512 19512 12387 White 38
2 PM Sun 91 96 SSW 6 6 19312 19312 12187 White 37
3 PM Sun 92 95 SSW 7 8 19111 19111 11986 White 36
4 PM Sun 91 92 SW 9 10 18453 18453 11328 White 33
5 PM Sun 90 90 SW 10 11 18048 18048 10923 White 31
6 PM Sun 88 88 SW 8 9 17640 17640 10515 White 29
7 PM Sun 84 84 SW 6 8 16822 16822 9697 White 25
8 PM Sun 82 82 W 4 6 16408 16408 9283 White 23
9 PM Sun 79 79 WNW 2 3 15784 15784 8659 White 20
10 PM Sun 79 79 N 2 5 15784 15784 8659 White 20
11 PM Sun 76 76 NNE 6 10 15153 15153 8028 White 17
12 Midnight Mon 75 75 NNE 8 11 14942 14942 7817 White 16
1 AM Mon 76 76 NNE 9 15 15153 15153 8028 White 17
2 AM Mon 76 76 NNE 7 12 15153 15153 8028 White 17
3 AM Mon 71 71 NNE 7 13 14095 13541 6416 White 12
4 AM Mon 75 75 NNE 7 12 14942 14942 7817 White 16
5 AM Mon 74 74 NNE 6 11 14731 14731 7606 White 15
6 AM Mon 71 71 NNE 6 12 14095 13541 6416 White 12
7 AM Mon 72 72 NNE 7 14 14308 13812 6687 White 13
8 AM Mon 72 72 NNE 8 14 14308 13812 6687 White 13
9 AM Mon 76 77 NNE 6 10 15364 15364 8239 White 18
10 AM Mon 77 77 NE 4 6 15364 15364 8239 White 18
11 AM Mon 85 86 NE 3 4 17230 17230 10105 White 27
12 Noon Mon 89 95 ENE 0 1 19111 19111 11986 White 36
1 PM Mon 88 93 SW 1 1 18655 18655 11530 White 34
2 PM Mon 89 93 W 3 3 18655 18655 11530 White 34
3 PM Mon 91 94 W 5 5 18878 18878 11753 White 35
4 PM Mon 88 89 WSW 8 9 17845 17845 10720 White 30
5 PM Mon 88 88 W 7 8 17640 17640 10515 White 29
6 PM Mon 88 88 W 7 10 17640 17640 10515 White 29
7 PM Mon 86 86 WNW 6 8 17230 17230 10105 White 27
8 PM Mon 79 79 NNE 11 16 15784 15784 8659 White 20
9 PM Mon 79 79 NE 7 12 15784 15784 8659 White 20
10 PM Mon 75 75 NE 8 11 14942 14942 7817 White 16
11 PM Mon 73 73 NE 8 13 14519 14064 6939 White 14
12 Midnight Tue 73 73 NE 8 13 14519 14064 6939 White 14
1 AM Tue 72 72 NNE 8 12 14308 13812 6687 White 13
2 AM Tue 72 72 NNE 8 14 14308 13812 6687 White 13
3 AM Tue 69 69 NNE 8 13 13667 13064 5939 White 10
4 AM Tue 70 70 NNE 7 13 13882 13268 6143 White 11
5 AM Tue 70 70 NNE 7 12 13882 13268 6143 White 11
6 AM Tue 66 66 NNE 6 11 13021 11221 4096 White 7
7 AM Tue 69 69 NE 5 9 13667 13064 5939 White 10
8 AM Tue 69 69 NE 6 10 13667 13064 5939 White 10
9 AM Tue 75 77 NE 6 8 15364 15364 8239 White 18
10 AM Tue 75 78 NE 5 6 15575 15575 8450 White 19
11 AM Tue 82 87 NE 4 4 17435 17435 10310 White 28
12 Noon Tue 90 96 ENE 2 3 19312 19312 12187 White 37
1 PM Tue 87 92 SE 1 1 18453 18453 11328 White 33
2 PM Tue 88 92 SW 2 3 18453 18453 11328 White 33
3 PM Tue 92 95 SW 4 5 19111 19111 11986 White 36
4 PM Tue 89 90 WSW 7 8 18048 18048 10923 White 31
5 PM Tue 87 87 W 16 19 17435 17435 10310 White 28
6 PM Tue 87 87 WNW 9 11 17435 17435 10310 White 28
7 PM Tue 82 82 WNW 4 6 16408 16408 9283 White 23
8 PM Tue 81 81 SW 0 1 16200 16200 9075 White 22
9 PM Tue 81 81 ESE 2 3 16200 16200 9075 White 22
10 PM Tue 79 79 E 2 4 15784 15784 8659 White 20
11 PM Tue 78 78 SE 5 9 15575 15575 8450 White 19

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com