Detailed Predictions for: Mt Ord
Launch Altitude (f): 7125
LZ Altitude (f): 2300
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

1 DEC 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 37 37 N 6 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 38 38 N 7 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 39 39 N 8 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 41 41 N 9 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 45 45 N 8 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 45 46 N 6 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 47 49 N 5 6377 7125 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 50 53 NW 6 7352 7125 0 Blue 1
1 PM Tue 50 53 NW 5 7352 7125 0 Blue 1
2 PM Tue 51 53 N 7 7352 7125 0 Blue 1
3 PM Tue 50 51 N 12 6724 7125 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 49 49 N 15 6377 7125 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 46 46 N 15 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 44 44 N 15 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 42 42 N 16 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 42 42 N 16 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 41 41 N 16 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 39 39 NE 16 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 38 38 NE 16 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 38 38 NE 15 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 38 38 NE 14 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 37 37 NE 13 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 36 36 NE 13 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 36 36 NE 10 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 35 35 NE 10 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 36 36 N 13 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 35 35 N 13 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 36 36 NE 9 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 37 37 NE 10 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 38 39 NE 9 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 40 42 E 7 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 42 44 NE 7 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 43 45 NE 9 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 44 46 NE 10 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 43 44 NE 12 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 41 41 NE 13 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 39 39 NE 14 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 38 38 NE 16 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 38 38 NE 17 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 37 37 N 20 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 36 36 NE 21 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 36 36 NE 22 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 35 35 NE 22 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 35 35 NE 22 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 34 34 NE 21 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 34 34 NE 21 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 34 34 NE 21 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 33 33 NE 20 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 33 33 NE 20 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 33 33 NE 21 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 33 33 NE 21 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 33 33 NE 22 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 34 34 NE 22 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 35 36 NE 21 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 36 38 NE 21 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 38 40 NE 21 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 39 41 NE 20 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 40 42 NE 20 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 40 41 NE 18 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 38 38 NE 17 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 37 37 NE 16 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 36 36 NE 16 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 35 35 NE 17 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 34 34 NE 17 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 33 33 NE 17 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 33 33 NE 16 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 33 33 NE 15 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 33 33 NE 15 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 33 33 NE 14 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 33 33 NE 14 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 32 32 NE 14 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 32 32 NE 13 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 31 31 NE 13 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 31 31 NE 13 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 31 31 NE 14 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 32 32 NE 14 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 33 33 NE 14 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 34 35 E 13 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 36 38 E 13 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 38 40 E 13 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 41 43 E 13 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 42 44 E 13 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 42 43 E 13 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 40 40 NE 12 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 39 39 NE 12 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 38 38 NE 13 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 38 38 NE 13 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 37 37 NE 14 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 36 36 NE 14 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 36 36 NE 13 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 35 35 NE 13 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 35 35 NE 13 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 34 34 NE 13 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 34 34 NE 13 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 34 34 NE 13 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 34 34 NE 13 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 34 34 NE 13 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 34 34 NE 13 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 34 34 NE 13 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 35 35 NE 13 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 36 36 NE 12 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 38 39 NE 12 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 40 42 NE 10 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 42 44 E 10 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 45 47 E 12 6029 7125 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 46 47 E 12 6029 7125 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 45 46 E 12 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 44 44 E 10 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 42 42 NE 10 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 41 41 NE 10 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 41 41 NE 12 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 40 40 NE 12 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 39 39 NE 12 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 39 39 NE 13 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 38 38 NE 13 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 38 38 NE 13 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 37 37 NE 13 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 37 37 NE 13 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 36 36 NE 13 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 35 35 NE 12 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 35 35 NE 12 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 35 35 NE 12 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 35 35 NE 12 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 36 36 NE 12 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 37 37 NE 12 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 39 40 NE 10 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 41 43 NE 10 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 44 46 E 10 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 46 48 E 12 6203 7125 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 47 48 E 12 6203 7125 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 46 47 E 12 6029 7125 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 44 44 E 10 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 42 42 E 10 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 41 41 NE 10 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 41 41 NE 12 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 41 41 NE 12 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 40 40 NE 12 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 40 40 NE 12 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 39 39 NE 12 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 39 39 NE 12 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 38 38 NE 12 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 38 38 NE 12 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 38 38 NE 12 5958 7125 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 37 37 NE 12 5958 7125 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com