Detailed Predictions for: Mt Ord
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.9047, -111.4083, 7125
LZ Altitude (f): 2300
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Fri 50 50 NE 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 49 49 NE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 48 48 NNE 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 45 45 NE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 46 46 NNE 7 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 45 45 NNE 7 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 43 43 NE 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 45 45 NNE 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 46 46 NNE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 47 47 NNE 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 50 50 NNE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 52 52 NNE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 55 60 SSE 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 57 58 ESE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 59 61 S 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 61 64 SW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 59 60 SW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 57 57 SW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 57 57 SW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 54 54 SW 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 54 54 SW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 52 52 SW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 52 52 SSW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 51 51 S 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 49 49 SW 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 49 49 SE 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 48 48 SE 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 46 46 ESE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 46 46 E 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 45 45 ENE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 44 44 ENE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 46 46 NE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 47 47 NE 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 48 49 NE 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 52 55 E 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 55 59 SE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 58 63 SSE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 60 65 S 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 62 66 SSW 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 62 65 SW 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 63 64 WSW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 63 63 WSW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 62 62 WSW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 60 60 SW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 57 57 SW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 55 55 SSW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 53 53 SSW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 52 52 SW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 50 50 WNW 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 50 50 SSE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 49 49 E 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 48 48 N 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 47 47 NNE 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 45 45 NNE 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 44 44 NNE 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 44 44 NNE 8 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 45 45 NNE 7 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 44 45 NNE 7 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 48 51 E 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 50 54 SE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 52 57 NNE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 54 59 S 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 55 59 S 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 56 58 NNE 17 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 55 56 SSE 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 55 55 ESE 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 54 54 NNE 21 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 53 53 NE 7 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 51 51 NNE 9 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 47 47 N 14 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 48 48 NNE 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 47 47 NNE 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com