Detailed Predictions for: Mt Ord
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.9047, -111.4083, 7125
LZ Altitude (f): 2300
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

16 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 70 70 W 10 14 7598 7125 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 68 68 WNW 9 13 4905 7125 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 67 67 WNW 9 9 4905 7125 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 66 66 W 6 8 4905 7125 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 65 65 W 5 6 4905 7125 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 65 65 W 6 8 4905 7125 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 66 66 W 5 6 4905 7125 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 65 65 W 5 6 4905 7125 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 69 70 WSW 5 6 7598 7125 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 71 73 SSW 5 8 10004 7568 443 Blue 3
10 AM Thu 73 77 SSW 6 11 15839 15472 8347 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 75 80 SW 10 14 16569 15809 8684 Blue 10
12 Noon Thu 76 82 WSW 10 16 16962 16102 8977 Blue 12
1 PM Thu 77 83 WSW 11 16 17099 16455 9330 Blue 13
2 PM Thu 77 82 WSW 11 17 16962 16102 8977 Blue 12
3 PM Thu 77 81 WSW 12 17 16824 15908 8783 Blue 11
4 PM Thu 77 79 W 12 17 16212 15734 8609 Blue 9
5 PM Thu 76 77 W 12 16 15839 15472 8347 Blue 7
6 PM Thu 76 76 W 10 13 15754 9934 2809 Blue 6
7 PM Thu 72 72 W 8 11 9268 7125 0 Blue 2
8 PM Thu 71 71 W 8 10 8483 7125 0 Blue 1
9 PM Thu 71 71 WNW 6 10 8483 7125 0 Blue 1
10 PM Thu 70 70 NW 6 9 7598 7125 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 69 69 NNW 6 8 6223 7125 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 70 70 N 5 6 7598 7125 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 68 68 N 6 6 4905 7125 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 67 67 N 5 6 4905 7125 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 67 67 N 5 6 4905 7125 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 66 66 WNW 6 6 4905 7125 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 65 65 NW 8 8 4905 7125 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 65 65 WNW 6 8 4905 7125 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 65 65 NNW 3 6 4905 7125 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 68 69 NE 5 5 6223 7125 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 69 70 E 5 5 7598 7125 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 71 73 SE 5 6 10004 7568 443 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 73 77 S 6 6 15839 15472 8347 Blue 7
12 Noon Fri 74 79 SSW 6 6 16212 15734 8609 Blue 9
1 PM Fri 75 80 SSW 6 6 16569 15809 8684 Blue 10
2 PM Fri 76 81 SW 8 8 16824 15908 8783 Blue 11
3 PM Fri 77 80 SW 9 9 16569 15809 8684 Blue 10
4 PM Fri 77 79 WSW 10 13 16212 15734 8609 Blue 9
5 PM Fri 76 76 WSW 10 14 15754 9934 2809 Blue 6
6 PM Fri 75 75 WSW 10 14 15686 9210 2085 Blue 5
7 PM Fri 73 73 WSW 10 14 10004 7568 443 Blue 3
8 PM Fri 71 71 WSW 10 14 8483 7125 0 Blue 1
9 PM Fri 70 70 W 9 12 7598 7125 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 70 70 NNW 8 8 7598 7125 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 69 69 N 6 6 6223 7125 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 68 68 NNE 6 6 4905 7125 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 68 68 NNE 5 5 4905 7125 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 67 67 NNE 5 5 4905 7125 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 66 66 NE 6 6 4905 7125 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 65 65 NE 6 6 4905 7125 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 65 65 NE 6 6 4905 7125 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 66 66 NE 6 6 4905 7125 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 67 67 ENE 6 6 4905 7125 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 68 69 ENE 6 6 6223 7125 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 69 71 E 5 5 8483 7125 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 71 74 S 5 5 15617 8441 1316 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 72 76 SSW 6 6 15754 9934 2809 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 73 78 SSW 6 6 15938 15666 8541 Blue 8
1 PM Sat 74 79 SW 8 8 16212 15734 8609 Blue 9
2 PM Sat 75 79 SW 9 13 16212 15734 8609 Blue 9
3 PM Sat 75 78 SW 10 14 15938 15666 8541 Blue 8
4 PM Sat 75 77 SW 11 14 15839 15472 8347 Blue 7
5 PM Sat 75 76 SW 11 14 15754 9934 2809 Blue 6
6 PM Sat 74 74 WSW 10 14 15617 8441 1316 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 72 72 WSW 9 12 9268 7125 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 71 71 W 8 8 8483 7125 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sat 70 70 WNW 8 8 7598 7125 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 69 69 NNW 6 6 6223 7125 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 68 68 N 6 6 4905 7125 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 67 67 NNE 6 6 4905 7125 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 67 67 NE 5 5 4905 7125 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 66 66 NE 5 5 4905 7125 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 65 65 NE 5 5 4905 7125 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 64 64 NE 6 6 4905 7125 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 64 64 ENE 6 6 4905 7125 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 65 65 ENE 5 5 4905 7125 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 66 66 E 5 5 4905 7125 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 68 69 E 5 5 6223 7125 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 69 71 ESE 6 6 8483 7125 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 71 75 S 8 8 15686 9210 2085 Blue 5
11 AM Sun 72 77 SSW 9 9 15839 15472 8347 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 73 79 SSW 9 13 16212 15734 8609 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 74 80 SW 10 14 16569 15809 8684 Blue 10
2 PM Sun 75 80 SW 11 16 16569 15809 8684 Blue 10
3 PM Sun 75 79 SW 12 17 16212 15734 8609 Blue 9
4 PM Sun 75 77 SW 13 18 15839 15472 8347 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 74 75 SW 13 18 15686 9210 2085 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 73 73 SW 12 17 10004 7568 443 Blue 3
7 PM Sun 72 72 SW 11 14 9268 7125 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sun 71 71 SW 9 13 8483 7125 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sun 70 70 SW 9 9 7598 7125 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 70 70 SW 8 8 7598 7125 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 69 69 SW 8 8 6223 7125 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 68 68 SSW 6 6 4905 7125 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 67 67 SSW 6 6 4905 7125 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 66 66 S 6 6 4905 7125 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 65 65 S 6 6 4905 7125 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 64 64 S 6 6 4905 7125 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 63 63 SSE 8 8 4905 7125 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 63 63 SSE 8 8 4905 7125 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 65 65 S 8 8 4905 7125 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 66 67 S 8 8 4905 7125 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 67 69 S 9 12 6223 7125 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 69 73 SSW 11 14 10004 7568 443 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 70 76 SSW 12 17 15754 9934 2809 Blue 6
12 Noon Mon 71 78 SW 13 19 15938 15666 8541 Blue 8
1 PM Mon 72 79 SW 14 20 16212 15734 8609 Blue 9
2 PM Mon 72 78 SW 14 20 15938 15666 8541 Blue 8
3 PM Mon 72 76 SW 14 21 15754 9934 2809 Blue 6
4 PM Mon 72 74 WSW 16 21 15617 8441 1316 Blue 4
5 PM Mon 72 73 WSW 14 21 10004 7568 443 Blue 3
6 PM Mon 71 71 WSW 13 19 8483 7125 0 Blue 1
7 PM Mon 69 69 WSW 12 17 6223 7125 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 68 68 WSW 11 16 4905 7125 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 67 67 W 10 13 4905 7125 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 66 66 NNW 9 9 4905 7125 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 65 65 N 8 8 4905 7125 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 64 64 N 8 8 4905 7125 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 62 62 NNE 8 8 4905 7125 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 61 61 NE 8 8 4905 7125 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 60 60 NE 9 9 4905 7125 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 58 58 NE 9 9 4905 7125 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 58 58 NE 9 9 4905 7125 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 59 59 NE 9 12 4905 7125 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 60 60 NE 9 9 4905 7125 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 62 63 NE 9 9 4905 7125 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 64 66 E 8 8 4905 7125 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 65 69 SE 6 6 6223 7125 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 67 73 SSE 6 6 10004 7568 443 Blue 3
12 Noon Tue 69 76 S 6 6 15754 9934 2809 Blue 6
1 PM Tue 70 77 SSW 6 6 15839 15472 8347 Blue 7
2 PM Tue 71 77 SW 8 8 15839 15472 8347 Blue 7
3 PM Tue 72 76 SW 9 12 15754 9934 2809 Blue 6
4 PM Tue 72 74 WSW 10 14 15617 8441 1316 Blue 4
5 PM Tue 71 72 WSW 11 16 9268 7125 0 Blue 2
6 PM Tue 70 70 WSW 10 14 7598 7125 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 68 68 W 9 9 4905 7125 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 66 66 WNW 8 8 4905 7125 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 65 65 NW 8 8 4905 7125 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 63 63 N 9 9 4905 7125 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com