Detailed Predictions for: Mustang Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 5100
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

17 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 35 35 E 10 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 35 35 E 10 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 35 35 E 10 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 36 36 E 12 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 41 41 E 12 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 47 48 E 12 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 50 52 E 13 5421 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 53 56 E 12 6132 5900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 54 57 E 10 6310 5900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 58 60 E 9 6840 6303 403 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 56 57 E 9 6310 5900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 55 55 NE 8 5955 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 53 53 NE 8 5599 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 47 47 NE 7 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 43 43 E 7 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 39 39 E 7 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 38 38 E 7 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 38 38 E 7 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 37 37 E 7 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 37 37 E 7 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 37 37 E 8 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 37 37 E 8 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 37 37 E 8 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 37 37 E 8 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 36 36 E 7 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 36 36 E 7 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 36 36 E 7 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 37 37 E 7 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 44 44 E 8 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 50 52 E 9 5421 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 54 57 E 9 6310 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 57 60 E 9 6840 6303 403 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 59 62 E 8 7758 6655 755 Blue 1
2 PM Thu 63 65 E 7 11089 7711 1811 Blue 4
3 PM Thu 61 62 E 6 7758 6655 755 Blue 1
4 PM Thu 60 60 E 5 6840 6303 403 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 58 58 E 5 6487 5951 51 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 52 52 E 5 5421 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 48 48 E 5 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 44 44 E 6 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 43 43 SE 6 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 43 43 SE 6 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 42 42 SE 6 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 42 42 S 6 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 42 42 S 6 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 42 42 S 6 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 42 42 S 6 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 41 41 S 6 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 41 41 S 6 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 40 40 S 6 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 41 41 S 7 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 42 42 S 8 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 49 49 S 9 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 55 56 SW 10 6132 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 59 61 SW 10 7172 6479 579 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 62 65 SW 12 11089 7711 1811 Blue 4
1 PM Fri 64 67 SW 12 13537 9999 4099 Blue 6
2 PM Fri 68 70 SW 13 14308 13240 7340 Blue 9
3 PM Fri 66 67 SW 14 13537 9999 4099 Blue 6
4 PM Fri 65 65 SW 14 11089 7711 1811 Blue 4
5 PM Fri 62 62 SW 14 7758 6655 755 Blue 1
6 PM Fri 55 55 SW 14 5955 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 50 50 SW 14 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 45 45 SW 14 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 44 44 SW 14 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 44 44 S 14 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 43 43 S 14 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 43 43 S 14 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 43 43 S 15 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 43 43 S 15 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 43 43 S 15 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 42 42 SW 15 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 42 42 SW 14 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 41 41 SW 14 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 42 42 SW 14 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 42 42 SW 15 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 44 44 SW 15 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 46 46 SW 15 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 47 48 SW 16 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 48 49 SW 17 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 48 49 W 17 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 50 51 W 18 5242 5900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 48 48 W 20 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 47 47 W 20 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 44 44 W 20 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 39 39 W 20 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 34 34 W 17 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 30 30 W 16 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 29 29 W 15 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 29 29 W 13 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 28 28 W 12 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 28 28 W 10 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 28 28 W 10 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 28 28 W 10 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 28 28 W 9 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 28 28 W 9 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 27 27 W 9 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 27 27 W 9 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 28 28 W 9 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 28 28 NW 9 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 34 34 NW 9 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 40 41 NW 9 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 43 45 NW 10 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 46 49 NW 10 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 48 51 NW 10 5242 5900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 52 54 NW 12 5777 5900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 50 51 NW 12 5242 5900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 49 49 NW 12 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 46 46 NW 12 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 40 40 N 10 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 36 36 N 9 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 32 32 N 7 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 31 31 NE 6 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 30 30 NE 5 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 30 30 NE 3 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 29 29 NE 3 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 29 29 E 3 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 29 29 E 5 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 30 30 E 6 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 29 29 E 7 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 29 29 E 8 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 28 28 E 8 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 29 29 E 8 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 30 30 E 9 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 37 37 E 9 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 45 46 E 9 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 49 51 E 9 5242 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 52 55 E 9 5955 5900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 54 57 NE 9 6310 5900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 59 61 NE 9 7172 6479 579 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 56 57 N 9 6310 5900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 55 55 N 9 5955 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 52 52 NW 9 5421 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 45 45 NW 8 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 39 39 NW 7 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 34 34 W 7 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 33 33 W 6 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 33 33 W 5 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 32 32 SW 5 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 31 31 SW 5 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 32 32 SW 5 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 31 31 SW 5 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 32 32 SW 5 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 31 31 W 5 5066 5900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com