Detailed Predictions for: Mustang Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 5100
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

26 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 47 47 SE 6 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 46 46 SE 6 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 48 48 SE 7 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 58 60 SE 7 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 64 67 SE 8 6551 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 68 71 SE 8 10350 7002 1102 Blue 2
12 Noon Tue 72 76 SE 9 12598 11902 6002 Blue 7
1 PM Tue 74 78 SE 10 15130 12378 6478 Blue 9
2 PM Tue 77 80 S 10 15739 12704 6804 Blue 11
3 PM Tue 78 80 S 12 15739 12704 6804 Blue 11
4 PM Tue 79 80 SW 12 15739 12704 6804 Blue 11
5 PM Tue 78 78 SW 12 15130 12378 6478 Blue 9
6 PM Tue 77 77 SW 12 12727 12025 6125 Blue 8
7 PM Tue 73 73 W 12 11930 9472 3572 Blue 4
8 PM Tue 67 67 W 10 6551 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 63 63 W 9 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 62 62 W 8 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 59 59 W 8 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 57 57 W 7 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 55 55 W 7 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 53 53 SW 6 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 52 52 SW 6 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 51 51 SW 6 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 50 50 S 7 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 50 50 S 7 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 49 49 S 7 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 50 50 S 8 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 59 60 S 9 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 64 65 SW 10 5560 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 68 70 SW 10 9580 6530 630 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 71 73 SW 12 11930 9472 3572 Blue 4
1 PM Wed 73 75 SW 13 12425 11087 5187 Blue 6
2 PM Wed 75 77 SW 14 12727 12025 6125 Blue 8
3 PM Wed 76 77 SW 14 12727 12025 6125 Blue 8
4 PM Wed 77 78 SW 15 15130 12378 6478 Blue 9
5 PM Wed 76 76 W 15 12598 11902 6002 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 75 75 W 15 12425 11087 5187 Blue 6
7 PM Wed 71 71 W 15 10350 7002 1102 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 65 65 SW 14 5560 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 62 62 SW 13 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 60 60 SW 12 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 57 57 SW 10 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 55 55 SW 9 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 53 53 SW 8 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 51 51 S 7 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 50 50 S 7 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 49 49 S 6 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 49 49 S 6 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 49 49 S 6 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 48 48 S 6 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 49 50 SW 7 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 58 60 SW 7 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 63 67 SW 8 6551 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 66 71 W 9 10350 7002 1102 Blue 2
12 Noon Thu 70 76 W 10 12598 11902 6002 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 72 78 W 12 15130 12378 6478 Blue 9
2 PM Thu 74 79 W 13 15436 12557 6657 Blue 10
3 PM Thu 74 77 W 15 12727 12025 6125 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 75 77 W 16 12727 12025 6125 Blue 8
5 PM Thu 75 75 W 17 12425 11087 5187 Blue 6
6 PM Thu 73 73 W 17 11930 9472 3572 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 69 69 W 16 8220 6048 148 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 62 62 W 15 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 58 58 W 14 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 57 57 W 12 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 54 54 SW 10 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 51 51 SW 9 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 49 49 SW 8 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 47 47 SW 8 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 46 46 SW 8 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 45 45 SW 8 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 44 44 SW 8 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 44 44 SW 8 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 43 43 SW 8 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 44 45 SW 8 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 54 56 W 8 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 59 63 W 8 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 63 68 W 8 7029 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 66 72 NW 9 11253 7879 1979 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 68 74 NW 10 12053 10219 4319 Blue 5
2 PM Fri 70 75 NW 13 12425 11087 5187 Blue 6
3 PM Fri 71 74 NW 14 12053 10219 4319 Blue 5
4 PM Fri 72 74 NW 15 12053 10219 4319 Blue 5
5 PM Fri 72 72 NW 17 11253 7879 1979 Blue 3
6 PM Fri 70 70 NW 17 9580 6530 630 Blue 1
7 PM Fri 66 66 W 16 6061 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 60 60 W 15 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 57 57 SW 14 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 55 55 SW 12 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 52 52 S 9 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 50 50 S 8 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 48 48 S 7 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 46 46 S 7 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 45 45 S 7 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 44 44 S 7 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 44 44 S 7 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 43 43 S 7 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 42 42 S 7 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 44 44 S 7 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 53 54 SE 7 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 58 60 E 7 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 62 65 E 8 5560 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 65 68 E 8 7029 5900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 67 70 E 9 9580 6530 630 Blue 1
2 PM Sat 69 72 SE 10 11253 7879 1979 Blue 3
3 PM Sat 70 72 SE 12 11253 7879 1979 Blue 3
4 PM Sat 71 72 S 13 11253 7879 1979 Blue 3
5 PM Sat 70 70 SW 13 9580 6530 630 Blue 1
6 PM Sat 69 69 SW 14 8220 6048 148 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 65 65 SW 13 5560 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 59 59 S 13 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 55 55 S 12 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 54 54 SE 10 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 51 51 E 9 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 48 48 E 8 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 46 46 E 8 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 44 44 E 7 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 44 44 E 7 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 42 42 E 7 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 42 42 E 8 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 42 42 E 8 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 40 40 E 8 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 42 43 E 9 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 51 53 E 9 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 55 58 E 10 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 59 64 E 10 5047 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 62 67 E 12 6551 5900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 64 69 E 13 8220 6048 148 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 66 71 SE 14 10350 7002 1102 Blue 2
3 PM Sun 67 70 SE 15 9580 6530 630 Blue 1
4 PM Sun 67 69 S 16 8220 6048 148 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 67 67 SW 17 6551 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 65 65 SW 17 5560 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 62 62 SW 17 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 56 56 W 17 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 52 52 W 16 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 51 51 W 15 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 48 48 W 14 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 46 46 NW 13 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 44 44 NW 12 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 42 42 N 10 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 41 41 N 8 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 40 40 NE 7 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 40 40 E 7 4961 5900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com