Detailed Predictions for: Mustang Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 5100
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

15 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Mon 66 66 NW 6 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 66 66 N 6 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 75 76 NW 5 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 82 85 NW 6 8127 6814 914 Blue 3
10 AM Mon 86 90 N 7 13664 10173 4273 White 8
11 AM Mon 90 95 N 6 14714 14714 8814 White 12
12 Noon Mon 92 97 N 7 15131 15131 9231 White 14
1 PM Mon 94 99 N 6 15548 15548 9648 White 16
2 PM Mon 94 98 NW 6 15340 15340 9440 White 15
3 PM Mon 93 96 NW 6 14923 14923 9023 White 13
4 PM Mon 94 96 SW 7 14923 14923 9023 White 13
5 PM Mon 94 95 W 8 14714 14714 8814 White 12
6 PM Mon 92 92 W 9 14086 14086 8186 White 10
7 PM Mon 89 89 NW 9 13454 9131 3231 White 7
8 PM Mon 85 85 NW 6 8127 6814 914 Blue 3
9 PM Mon 82 82 NW 5 6874 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 80 80 W 6 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 79 79 NW 6 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 76 76 NW 6 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 76 76 NW 6 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 74 74 NW 6 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 72 72 NW 6 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 70 70 NW 6 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 70 70 NW 5 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 69 69 NW 5 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 69 69 NW 5 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 77 78 NW 6 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 83 85 NW 6 8127 6814 914 Blue 3
10 AM Tue 87 90 NW 6 13664 10173 4273 White 8
11 AM Tue 91 95 W 6 14714 14714 8814 White 12
12 Noon Tue 93 98 W 6 15340 15340 9440 White 15
1 PM Tue 94 99 W 6 15548 15548 9648 White 16
2 PM Tue 94 98 W 6 15340 15340 9440 White 15
3 PM Tue 93 96 W 7 14923 14923 9023 White 13
4 PM Tue 94 95 W 8 14714 14714 8814 White 12
5 PM Tue 94 94 W 9 14504 14504 8604 White 12
6 PM Tue 92 92 W 10 14086 14086 8186 White 10
7 PM Tue 88 88 W 9 10880 8096 2196 Blue 6
8 PM Tue 85 85 W 7 8127 6814 914 Blue 3
9 PM Tue 82 82 SW 6 6874 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 80 80 SW 6 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 78 78 SW 6 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 75 75 SW 7 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 75 75 SW 7 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 73 73 SW 8 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 71 71 SW 8 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 70 70 SW 8 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 68 68 SW 7 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 68 68 SW 7 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 68 68 SW 7 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 74 74 SW 7 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 79 80 SW 7 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 83 84 SW 7 7783 5900 0 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 86 87 W 8 10328 7755 1855 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 88 90 W 8 13664 10173 4273 White 8
1 PM Wed 88 89 W 8 13454 9131 3231 White 7
2 PM Wed 89 90 W 9 13664 10173 4273 White 8
3 PM Wed 88 89 W 9 13454 9131 3231 White 7
4 PM Wed 88 88 W 9 10880 8096 2196 Blue 6
5 PM Wed 88 88 W 9 10880 8096 2196 Blue 6
6 PM Wed 86 86 W 9 9270 7411 1511 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 83 83 W 8 7435 5900 0 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 80 80 W 7 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 77 77 SW 6 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 76 76 SW 6 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 74 74 SW 6 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 72 72 SW 6 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 71 71 SW 6 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 69 69 SW 6 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 68 68 SW 6 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 66 66 SW 6 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 65 65 SW 6 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 64 64 SW 6 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 64 64 W 6 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 71 71 W 6 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 77 77 NW 6 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 80 80 NW 7 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 84 85 NW 8 8127 6814 914 Blue 3
12 Noon Thu 85 86 NW 9 9270 7411 1511 Blue 4
1 PM Thu 86 87 NW 9 10328 7755 1855 Blue 5
2 PM Thu 87 88 NW 9 10880 8096 2196 Blue 6
3 PM Thu 86 87 NW 9 10328 7755 1855 Blue 5
4 PM Thu 86 86 NW 9 9270 7411 1511 Blue 4
5 PM Thu 86 86 NW 10 9270 7411 1511 Blue 4
6 PM Thu 84 84 W 10 7783 5900 0 Blue 2
7 PM Thu 82 82 W 9 6874 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 79 79 W 8 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 76 76 W 7 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 75 75 W 7 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 74 74 SW 7 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 71 71 SW 7 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 71 71 SW 7 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 69 69 SW 6 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 68 68 SW 6 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 66 66 W 6 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 65 65 W 5 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 65 65 W 5 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 65 65 W 5 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 72 73 W 5 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 78 80 NW 6 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 82 85 NW 7 8127 6814 914 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 85 89 NW 9 13454 9131 3231 White 7
12 Noon Fri 87 91 NW 10 13875 10803 4903 White 9
1 PM Fri 88 92 NW 10 14086 14086 8186 White 10
2 PM Fri 89 92 NW 9 14086 14086 8186 White 10
3 PM Fri 88 90 NW 9 13664 10173 4273 White 8
4 PM Fri 88 89 NW 9 13454 9131 3231 White 7
5 PM Fri 88 88 W 10 10880 8096 2196 Blue 6
6 PM Fri 86 86 W 10 9270 7411 1511 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 83 83 W 9 7435 5900 0 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 80 80 W 9 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 77 77 W 8 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 76 76 W 8 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 74 74 W 8 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 72 72 SW 8 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 71 71 SW 7 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 70 70 SW 7 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 68 68 SW 6 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 67 67 SW 6 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 66 66 SW 6 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 65 65 SW 6 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 65 65 SW 6 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 72 73 W 6 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 77 78 W 6 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 81 83 W 7 7435 5900 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 84 87 NW 8 10328 7755 1855 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 86 90 NW 9 13664 10173 4273 White 8
1 PM Sat 87 90 NW 10 13664 10173 4273 White 8
2 PM Sat 88 91 NW 10 13875 10803 4903 White 9
3 PM Sat 87 89 NW 10 13454 9131 3231 White 7
4 PM Sat 87 88 NW 10 10880 8096 2196 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 87 87 NW 10 10328 7755 1855 Blue 5
6 PM Sat 85 85 NW 10 8127 6814 914 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 82 82 W 9 6874 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 79 79 W 9 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 76 76 W 8 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 75 75 W 8 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 73 73 W 7 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 71 71 SW 7 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 70 70 SW 7 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 69 69 SW 6 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 67 67 SW 6 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 66 66 SW 6 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 65 65 SW 6 5010 5900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com