Detailed Predictions for: Mustang Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 31.7036, -110.4928, 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 5100
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

16 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 67 67 ESE 8 12 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 66 66 ESE 5 9 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 64 64 S 8 12 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 64 64 SSE 8 12 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 64 64 SSE 6 10 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 63 63 SSE 8 12 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 61 61 SE 8 12 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 62 62 E 8 12 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 72 73 ENE 8 12 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 78 81 E 8 12 9443 6660 760 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 82 86 E 8 12 15840 15521 9621 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 85 90 E 9 13 16814 15903 10003 Blue 11
12 Noon Thu 87 93 E 6 10 17218 16762 10862 Blue 14
1 PM Thu 88 93 W 5 9 17218 16762 10862 Blue 14
2 PM Thu 88 92 WSW 5 9 17084 16420 10520 Blue 13
3 PM Thu 88 90 W 6 10 16814 15903 10003 Blue 11
4 PM Thu 86 87 WNW 5 9 15937 15666 9766 Blue 8
5 PM Thu 84 84 S 16 24 15689 9348 3448 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 81 81 SE 11 17 9443 6660 760 Blue 2
7 PM Thu 74 74 WNW 8 12 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 71 71 W 6 10 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 70 70 WSW 6 10 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 68 68 WSW 5 9 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 66 66 SSW 5 9 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 65 65 SSW 5 9 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 64 64 SSW 8 12 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 63 63 SSW 9 13 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 62 62 SSW 8 12 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 62 62 SW 8 12 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 61 61 SW 5 9 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 62 62 SW 4 6 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 66 66 WSW 4 6 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 72 72 WSW 5 9 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 77 78 W 5 9 6721 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 80 83 SSE 5 9 15621 8613 2713 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 82 85 S 5 9 15756 12968 7068 Blue 6
12 Noon Fri 84 88 S 4 6 16201 15733 9833 Blue 9
1 PM Fri 85 89 SSW 3 5 16550 15806 9906 Blue 10
2 PM Fri 85 88 SSW 14 23 16201 15733 9833 Blue 9
3 PM Fri 83 85 SW 11 17 15756 12968 7068 Blue 6
4 PM Fri 81 82 ESE 11 17 13876 7828 1928 Blue 3
5 PM Fri 78 78 WNW 10 16 6721 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 74 74 W 9 13 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 70 70 WNW 11 17 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 67 67 SSE 10 16 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 65 65 SE 9 13 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 64 64 ESE 6 10 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 64 64 S 6 10 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 64 64 SSW 5 9 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 63 63 SW 5 9 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 62 62 WSW 4 6 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 61 61 WSW 3 5 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 60 60 W 3 5 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 60 60 WNW 3 5 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 63 63 WNW 3 5 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 67 67 NNW 3 5 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 71 72 N 4 6 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 76 78 NE 5 9 6721 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 80 84 ENE 5 9 15689 9348 3448 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 83 88 E 6 10 16201 15733 9833 Blue 9
12 Noon Sat 85 91 ENE 8 12 16949 16075 10175 Blue 12
1 PM Sat 87 93 NNE 8 12 17218 16762 10862 Blue 14
2 PM Sat 87 92 N 9 13 17084 16420 10520 Blue 13
3 PM Sat 87 90 NW 9 13 16814 15903 10003 Blue 11
4 PM Sat 86 87 WNW 10 16 15937 15666 9766 Blue 8
5 PM Sat 84 84 W 10 16 15689 9348 3448 Blue 5
6 PM Sat 80 80 W 10 16 8695 5900 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sat 75 75 WSW 9 13 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 71 71 SW 8 12 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 69 69 SSW 6 10 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 68 68 SSW 5 9 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 67 67 S 4 6 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 66 66 S 4 6 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 66 66 SSE 3 5 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 64 64 SE 2 3 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 63 63 SE 2 3 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 62 62 SE 2 3 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 62 62 SE 2 3 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 64 64 SSE 3 5 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 68 68 SSE 3 5 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 72 73 SSE 3 5 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 77 79 S 4 6 7896 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 81 85 S 4 6 15756 12968 7068 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 84 90 S 5 9 16814 15903 10003 Blue 11
12 Noon Sun 87 93 S 6 10 17218 16762 10862 Blue 14
1 PM Sun 88 94 SSW 9 13 17410 16896 10996 Blue 15
2 PM Sun 88 93 SW 10 16 17218 16762 10862 Blue 14
3 PM Sun 88 92 SW 12 19 17084 16420 10520 Blue 13
4 PM Sun 87 89 WSW 13 20 16550 15806 9906 Blue 10
5 PM Sun 84 84 WSW 13 20 15689 9348 3448 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 80 80 WSW 13 20 8695 5900 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 76 76 WSW 12 19 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 72 72 WSW 11 17 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 69 69 WSW 10 16 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 68 68 WSW 8 12 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 67 67 WSW 6 10 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 66 66 WSW 5 9 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 65 65 WSW 4 6 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 63 63 WSW 3 5 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 62 62 WSW 3 5 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 60 60 WSW 3 5 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 61 61 WSW 3 5 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 63 63 WSW 4 6 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 67 67 WSW 5 9 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 72 73 WSW 8 12 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 76 79 WSW 10 16 7896 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 80 84 SW 12 19 15689 9348 3448 Blue 5
11 AM Mon 82 88 SW 14 23 16201 15733 9833 Blue 9
12 Noon Mon 84 91 SW 16 24 16949 16075 10175 Blue 12
1 PM Mon 86 93 WSW 17 26 17218 16762 10862 Blue 14
2 PM Mon 86 92 WSW 18 27 17084 16420 10520 Blue 13
3 PM Mon 86 90 WSW 18 27 16814 15903 10003 Blue 11
4 PM Mon 85 87 WSW 18 27 15937 15666 9766 Blue 8
5 PM Mon 82 83 WSW 18 27 15621 8613 2713 Blue 4
6 PM Mon 78 78 WSW 17 26 6721 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 73 73 WSW 16 24 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 69 69 WSW 13 20 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 66 66 WSW 12 19 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 65 65 WSW 10 16 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 64 64 WSW 8 12 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 64 64 WSW 5 9 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 63 63 WSW 4 6 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 61 61 WSW 3 5 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 59 59 WSW 3 5 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 58 58 WSW 3 5 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 57 57 WSW 3 5 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 60 60 WSW 3 5 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 64 64 WSW 4 6 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 68 69 WSW 4 6 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 72 75 W 5 9 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 76 80 W 6 10 8695 5900 0 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 78 84 W 8 12 15689 9348 3448 Blue 5
12 Noon Tue 80 87 W 9 13 15937 15666 9766 Blue 8
1 PM Tue 82 89 W 10 16 16550 15806 9906 Blue 10
2 PM Tue 83 89 W 11 17 16550 15806 9906 Blue 10
3 PM Tue 84 88 WNW 12 19 16201 15733 9833 Blue 9
4 PM Tue 83 85 WNW 13 20 15756 12968 7068 Blue 6
5 PM Tue 81 82 WNW 13 20 13876 7828 1928 Blue 3
6 PM Tue 76 76 WNW 13 20 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 71 71 W 12 19 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 67 67 W 11 17 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 64 64 WSW 9 13 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 63 63 SW 8 12 4905 5900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com