Detailed Predictions for: Mustang Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 5100
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

26 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sun 49 49 S 12 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 50 51 S 13 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 57 59 S 18 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 59 63 S 22 7971 5900 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 62 69 S 23 9432 8516 2616 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 65 73 S 26 12614 9646 3746 Blue 11
12 Noon Sun 68 77 SW 28 15211 12894 6994 White 15
1 PM Sun 69 78 SW 28 15417 13261 7361 White 16
2 PM Sun 70 78 SW 26 15417 13261 7361 White 16
3 PM Sun 72 78 SW 26 15417 13261 7361 White 16
4 PM Sun 72 75 SW 25 13359 12145 6245 Blue 13
5 PM Sun 72 73 SW 24 12614 9646 3746 Blue 11
6 PM Sun 71 71 SW 23 9850 9024 3124 Blue 9
7 PM Sun 69 69 SW 22 9432 8516 2616 Blue 7
8 PM Sun 65 65 SW 18 8354 7300 1400 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 60 60 SW 15 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 57 57 SW 12 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 54 54 SW 10 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 52 52 SW 10 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 50 50 SW 10 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 50 50 SW 12 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 47 47 SW 12 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 46 46 SW 12 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 46 46 SW 12 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 44 44 SW 12 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 46 47 SW 13 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 53 55 SW 15 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 56 61 SW 16 5651 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 59 66 SW 18 8549 7918 2018 Blue 4
11 AM Mon 62 70 SW 21 9672 8825 2925 Blue 8
12 Noon Mon 64 73 SW 22 12614 9646 3746 Blue 11
1 PM Mon 66 75 SW 23 13359 12145 6245 Blue 13
2 PM Mon 67 75 W 23 13359 12145 6245 Blue 13
3 PM Mon 68 74 W 23 12989 9824 3924 Blue 12
4 PM Mon 69 72 W 23 12233 9378 3478 Blue 10
5 PM Mon 69 70 W 22 9672 8825 2925 Blue 8
6 PM Mon 68 68 W 21 9046 8346 2446 Blue 6
7 PM Mon 66 66 W 18 8549 7918 2018 Blue 4
8 PM Mon 62 62 W 15 7343 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 56 56 W 13 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 54 54 W 12 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 50 50 W 9 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 49 49 W 8 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 46 46 W 8 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 46 46 W 7 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 43 43 W 6 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 42 42 NW 6 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 42 42 NW 6 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 40 40 NW 6 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 42 43 W 6 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 52 54 SW 5 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 55 59 SW 5 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 59 64 SW 6 8269 5900 0 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 63 69 SW 6 9432 8516 2616 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 66 73 W 7 12614 9646 3746 Blue 11
1 PM Tue 68 74 W 8 12989 9824 3924 Blue 12
2 PM Tue 70 73 W 9 12614 9646 3746 Blue 11
3 PM Tue 72 74 W 10 12989 9824 3924 Blue 12
4 PM Tue 72 73 W 12 12614 9646 3746 Blue 11
5 PM Tue 72 73 W 12 12614 9646 3746 Blue 11
6 PM Tue 71 71 W 13 9850 9024 3124 Blue 9
7 PM Tue 69 69 W 12 9432 8516 2616 Blue 7
8 PM Tue 65 65 W 12 8354 7300 1400 Blue 3
9 PM Tue 60 60 W 10 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 57 57 W 9 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 54 54 W 9 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 52 52 NW 8 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 50 50 NW 7 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 49 49 W 7 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 46 46 W 7 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 46 46 NW 6 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 45 45 NW 6 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 44 44 NW 6 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 45 46 W 6 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 56 58 W 6 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 58 62 W 6 7343 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 63 70 SW 6 9672 8825 2925 Blue 8
11 AM Wed 67 75 S 6 13359 12145 6245 Blue 13
12 Noon Wed 70 79 S 6 15621 14306 8406 White 17
1 PM Wed 72 81 S 6 16029 16029 10129 White 19
2 PM Wed 74 82 SW 7 16232 16232 10332 White 20
3 PM Wed 75 81 SW 7 16029 16029 10129 White 19
4 PM Wed 76 79 W 8 15621 14306 8406 White 17
5 PM Wed 76 77 W 8 15211 12894 6994 White 15
6 PM Wed 75 75 W 8 13359 12145 6245 Blue 13
7 PM Wed 73 73 W 8 12614 9646 3746 Blue 11
8 PM Wed 69 69 W 8 9432 8516 2616 Blue 7
9 PM Wed 64 64 W 8 8269 5900 0 Blue 2
10 PM Wed 61 61 W 8 5651 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 58 58 W 8 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 56 56 W 7 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 54 54 W 7 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 53 53 SW 7 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 50 50 SW 7 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 50 50 S 7 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 49 49 S 6 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 48 48 S 7 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 49 50 S 7 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 60 62 S 7 7343 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 63 68 S 8 9046 8346 2446 Blue 6
10 AM Thu 67 74 S 8 12989 9824 3924 Blue 12
11 AM Thu 71 79 S 9 15621 14306 8406 White 17
12 Noon Thu 75 84 S 9 16635 16635 10735 White 22
1 PM Thu 77 86 S 10 17033 17033 11133 White 24
2 PM Thu 79 87 S 10 17232 17232 11332 White 25
3 PM Thu 81 87 S 12 17232 17232 11332 White 25
4 PM Thu 82 85 SW 12 16835 16835 10935 White 23
5 PM Thu 82 83 SW 12 16435 16435 10535 White 21
6 PM Thu 80 80 SW 12 15826 15349 9449 White 18
7 PM Thu 78 78 SW 12 15417 13261 7361 White 16
8 PM Thu 73 73 SW 12 12614 9646 3746 Blue 11
9 PM Thu 67 67 SW 10 8862 8261 2361 Blue 5
10 PM Thu 64 64 SW 10 8269 5900 0 Blue 2
11 PM Thu 61 61 SW 9 5651 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 59 59 SW 8 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 56 56 SW 8 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 55 55 SW 7 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 53 53 SW 7 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 52 52 S 7 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 51 51 S 7 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 50 50 S 7 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 51 52 S 7 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 62 64 S 7 8269 5900 0 Blue 2
9 AM Fri 65 69 S 8 9432 8516 2616 Blue 7
10 AM Fri 69 76 S 9 15007 12522 6622 White 14
11 AM Fri 73 81 S 10 16029 16029 10129 White 19
12 Noon Fri 77 86 S 10 17033 17033 11133 White 24
1 PM Fri 78 87 SW 12 17232 17232 11332 White 25
2 PM Fri 80 87 SW 13 17232 17232 11332 White 25
3 PM Fri 82 87 SW 13 17232 17232 11332 White 25
4 PM Fri 83 86 SW 14 17033 17033 11133 White 24
5 PM Fri 83 84 SW 14 16635 16635 10735 White 22
6 PM Fri 81 81 SW 15 16029 16029 10129 White 19
7 PM Fri 79 79 SW 14 15621 14306 8406 White 17
8 PM Fri 74 74 SW 13 12989 9824 3924 Blue 12
9 PM Fri 69 69 SW 12 9432 8516 2616 Blue 7
10 PM Fri 66 66 SW 10 8549 7918 2018 Blue 4
11 PM Fri 62 62 SW 9 7343 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 60 60 SW 9 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 58 58 SW 8 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 57 57 SW 8 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 54 54 SW 8 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 54 54 S 8 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 53 53 S 8 4793 5900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com