Detailed Predictions for: Mustang Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 5100
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

27 MAY 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sun 51 51 W 6 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 50 51 NW 6 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 64 66 NE 5 6968 5900 0 Blue 4
9 AM Sun 69 73 E 5 9241 8267 2367 Blue 11
10 AM Sun 74 80 E 6 10831 10132 4232 Blue 18
11 AM Sun 76 83 S 7 12656 10791 4891 Blue 21
12 Noon Sun 80 88 SW 9 15289 13612 7712 Blue 26
1 PM Sun 82 90 SW 12 17603 14637 8737 Blue 28
2 PM Sun 84 90 SW 14 17603 14637 8737 Blue 28
3 PM Sun 85 90 W 15 17603 14637 8737 Blue 28
4 PM Sun 85 88 W 16 15289 13612 7712 Blue 26
5 PM Sun 84 85 W 17 13760 11940 6040 Blue 23
6 PM Sun 83 83 W 17 12656 10791 4891 Blue 21
7 PM Sun 81 81 W 16 11463 10351 4451 Blue 19
8 PM Sun 76 76 W 14 9959 9201 3301 Blue 14
9 PM Sun 70 70 W 13 8299 7225 1325 Blue 8
10 PM Sun 67 67 W 12 7248 6414 514 Blue 5
11 PM Sun 65 65 W 12 6710 5900 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Mon 62 62 W 10 5288 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 60 60 W 10 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 58 58 W 9 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 58 58 W 9 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 56 56 W 8 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 54 54 W 8 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 53 53 W 7 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 52 53 NW 7 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 66 68 N 7 7603 6698 798 Blue 6
9 AM Mon 72 76 NE 7 9959 9201 3301 Blue 14
10 AM Mon 76 82 N 6 12072 10571 4671 Blue 20
11 AM Mon 79 86 NW 6 14285 12518 6618 Blue 24
12 Noon Mon 82 90 W 6 17603 14637 8737 Blue 28
1 PM Mon 84 92 W 8 18553 15899 9999 Blue 30
2 PM Mon 86 92 W 10 18553 15899 9999 Blue 30
3 PM Mon 87 92 W 13 18553 15899 9999 Blue 30
4 PM Mon 87 90 W 14 17603 14637 8737 Blue 28
5 PM Mon 87 88 W 15 15289 13612 7712 Blue 26
6 PM Mon 85 85 W 15 13760 11940 6040 Blue 23
7 PM Mon 83 83 W 15 12656 10791 4891 Blue 21
8 PM Mon 78 78 W 13 10387 9722 3822 Blue 16
9 PM Mon 73 73 W 12 9241 8267 2367 Blue 11
10 PM Mon 70 70 W 10 8299 7225 1325 Blue 8
11 PM Mon 68 68 W 10 7603 6698 798 Blue 6
12 Midnight Tue 65 65 W 9 6710 5900 0 Blue 3
1 AM Tue 63 63 W 9 5871 5900 0 Blue 1
2 AM Tue 61 61 W 9 5100 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 60 60 W 8 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 59 59 W 8 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 57 57 W 8 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 56 56 W 7 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 56 56 NW 7 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 69 71 NW 6 8616 7576 1676 Blue 9
9 AM Tue 74 78 N 6 10387 9722 3822 Blue 16
10 AM Tue 79 84 N 5 13218 11339 5439 Blue 22
11 AM Tue 81 87 N 5 14794 13074 7174 Blue 25
12 Noon Tue 85 92 NE 5 18553 15899 9999 Blue 30
1 PM Tue 86 93 N 6 18880 17147 11247 Blue 31
2 PM Tue 88 94 N 8 19280 18077 12177 Blue 32
3 PM Tue 89 94 NW 10 19280 18077 12177 Blue 32
4 PM Tue 90 93 NW 12 18880 17147 11247 Blue 31
5 PM Tue 89 90 W 14 17603 14637 8737 Blue 28
6 PM Tue 88 88 W 15 15289 13612 7712 Blue 26
7 PM Tue 85 85 W 15 13760 11940 6040 Blue 23
8 PM Tue 81 81 W 14 11463 10351 4451 Blue 19
9 PM Tue 75 75 W 14 9752 8892 2992 Blue 13
10 PM Tue 72 72 W 13 8930 7924 2024 Blue 10
11 PM Tue 70 70 SW 12 8299 7225 1325 Blue 8
12 Midnight Wed 67 67 SW 10 7248 6414 514 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 65 65 SW 10 6710 5900 0 Blue 3
2 AM Wed 64 64 SW 9 6435 5900 0 Blue 2
3 AM Wed 63 63 SW 9 5871 5900 0 Blue 1
4 AM Wed 61 61 SW 9 5100 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 59 59 SW 9 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 59 59 S 9 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 58 59 S 9 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 71 73 S 9 9241 8267 2367 Blue 11
9 AM Wed 76 80 SW 10 10831 10132 4232 Blue 18
10 AM Wed 80 86 SW 10 14285 12518 6618 Blue 24
11 AM Wed 82 90 SW 12 17603 14637 8737 Blue 28
12 Noon Wed 86 95 SW 13 19765 18405 12505 Blue 33
1 PM Wed 87 95 SW 14 19765 18405 12505 Blue 33
2 PM Wed 89 96 SW 15 20235 18730 12830 Blue 34
3 PM Wed 90 95 SW 16 19765 18405 12505 Blue 33
4 PM Wed 90 93 SW 17 18880 17147 11247 Blue 31
5 PM Wed 89 90 SW 17 17603 14637 8737 Blue 28
6 PM Wed 88 88 SW 17 15289 13612 7712 Blue 26
7 PM Wed 85 85 SW 17 13760 11940 6040 Blue 23
8 PM Wed 80 80 SW 16 10831 10132 4232 Blue 18
9 PM Wed 74 74 SW 15 9545 8581 2681 Blue 12
10 PM Wed 71 71 SW 14 8616 7576 1676 Blue 9
11 PM Wed 69 69 SW 13 7954 6953 1053 Blue 7
12 Midnight Thu 66 66 S 12 6968 5900 0 Blue 4
1 AM Thu 63 63 S 12 5871 5900 0 Blue 1
2 AM Thu 62 62 S 10 5288 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 61 61 S 10 5100 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 59 59 S 10 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 56 56 S 12 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 56 56 S 12 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 56 57 S 13 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 69 71 S 13 8616 7576 1676 Blue 9
9 AM Thu 74 78 S 14 10387 9722 3822 Blue 16
10 AM Thu 78 84 S 15 13218 11339 5439 Blue 22
11 AM Thu 81 88 S 16 15289 13612 7712 Blue 26
12 Noon Thu 84 92 SW 17 18553 15899 9999 Blue 30
1 PM Thu 86 94 SW 18 19280 18077 12177 Blue 32
2 PM Thu 88 95 SW 18 19765 18405 12505 Blue 33
3 PM Thu 89 94 SW 20 19280 18077 12177 Blue 32
4 PM Thu 89 92 SW 21 18553 15899 9999 Blue 30
5 PM Thu 88 89 SW 21 16402 14132 8232 Blue 27
6 PM Thu 87 87 SW 21 14794 13074 7174 Blue 25
7 PM Thu 84 84 SW 20 13218 11339 5439 Blue 22
8 PM Thu 79 79 SW 17 10610 9927 4027 Blue 17
9 PM Thu 73 73 SW 16 9241 8267 2367 Blue 11
10 PM Thu 70 70 SW 14 8299 7225 1325 Blue 8
11 PM Thu 68 68 SW 12 7603 6698 798 Blue 6
12 Midnight Fri 65 65 SW 10 6710 5900 0 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 62 62 SW 10 5288 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 61 61 S 9 5100 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 60 60 S 9 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 58 58 S 10 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 56 56 S 10 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 55 55 S 12 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 54 55 S 12 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 68 70 S 12 8299 7225 1325 Blue 8
9 AM Fri 74 78 SW 13 10387 9722 3822 Blue 16
10 AM Fri 78 84 SW 13 13218 11339 5439 Blue 22
11 AM Fri 81 89 SW 14 16402 14132 8232 Blue 27
12 Noon Fri 84 92 SW 14 18553 15899 9999 Blue 30
1 PM Fri 86 94 SW 15 19280 18077 12177 Blue 32
2 PM Fri 88 95 SW 16 19765 18405 12505 Blue 33
3 PM Fri 89 94 SW 17 19280 18077 12177 Blue 32
4 PM Fri 89 92 W 17 18553 15899 9999 Blue 30
5 PM Fri 88 89 W 17 16402 14132 8232 Blue 27
6 PM Fri 87 87 W 17 14794 13074 7174 Blue 25
7 PM Fri 84 84 W 16 13218 11339 5439 Blue 22
8 PM Fri 79 79 W 15 10610 9927 4027 Blue 17
9 PM Fri 73 73 W 13 9241 8267 2367 Blue 11
10 PM Fri 70 70 SW 12 8299 7225 1325 Blue 8
11 PM Fri 68 68 SW 9 7603 6698 798 Blue 6
12 Midnight Sat 65 65 SW 8 6710 5900 0 Blue 3
1 AM Sat 62 62 SW 7 5288 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 61 61 S 7 5100 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 60 60 S 7 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 58 58 SE 7 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 56 56 E 8 4921 5900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com