Detailed Predictions for: Mustang Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 5100
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

19 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 42 42 E 12 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 40 40 E 12 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 40 40 E 12 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 46 46 E 12 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 59 60 E 13 5547 5900 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sun 62 64 E 14 9525 5900 0 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 65 68 E 14 9887 9601 3701 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 66 69 E 13 10139 9690 3790 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 68 71 E 10 10599 9871 3971 Blue 13
2 PM Sun 68 70 E 9 10505 9778 3878 Blue 12
3 PM Sun 68 69 E 8 10139 9690 3790 Blue 11
4 PM Sun 66 66 E 8 9703 6732 832 Blue 8
5 PM Sun 62 62 E 8 5973 5900 0 Blue 4
6 PM Sun 55 55 E 8 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 49 49 SE 7 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 46 46 SE 7 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 44 44 S 7 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 42 42 S 6 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 42 42 S 6 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 42 42 S 5 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 42 42 S 3 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 42 42 SE 3 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 41 41 S 3 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 42 42 S 3 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 41 41 S 5 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 40 40 S 3 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 40 40 SE 2 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 47 47 SE 1 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 60 61 E 2 5713 5900 0 Blue 3
10 AM Mon 64 65 E 3 9614 5953 53 Blue 7
11 AM Mon 67 69 NE 6 10139 9690 3790 Blue 11
12 Noon Mon 69 71 NE 7 10599 9871 3971 Blue 13
1 PM Mon 71 73 NW 8 10970 10489 4589 Blue 15
2 PM Mon 71 73 W 10 10970 10489 4589 Blue 15
3 PM Mon 71 72 W 10 10721 10048 4148 Blue 14
4 PM Mon 69 69 W 10 10139 9690 3790 Blue 11
5 PM Mon 65 65 W 10 9614 5953 53 Blue 7
6 PM Mon 57 57 W 9 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 52 52 W 9 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 48 48 W 9 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 47 47 W 8 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 45 45 W 8 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 44 44 W 8 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 45 45 W 7 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 45 45 W 6 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 44 44 W 6 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 44 44 W 5 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 45 45 W 5 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 44 44 W 6 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 43 43 W 6 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 43 43 NW 6 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 50 NW 6 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 63 63 N 6 6770 5900 0 Blue 5
10 AM Tue 66 67 NE 6 9792 9200 3300 Blue 9
11 AM Tue 70 72 NE 7 10721 10048 4148 Blue 14
12 Noon Tue 72 75 NE 7 11668 10677 4777 Blue 17
1 PM Tue 73 75 NE 7 11668 10677 4777 Blue 17
2 PM Tue 74 76 NE 7 12066 10923 5023 Blue 18
3 PM Tue 74 75 NE 7 11668 10677 4777 Blue 17
4 PM Tue 72 72 N 7 10721 10048 4148 Blue 14
5 PM Tue 67 67 N 8 9792 9200 3300 Blue 9
6 PM Tue 59 59 N 8 5381 5900 0 Blue 1
7 PM Tue 54 54 NE 8 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 50 50 NE 9 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 48 48 NE 9 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 46 46 NE 10 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 46 46 E 10 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 46 46 E 12 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 46 46 E 12 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 46 46 E 12 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 45 45 E 12 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 46 46 E 12 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 45 45 E 12 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 44 44 E 12 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 44 44 E 12 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 51 51 E 10 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 65 65 E 10 9614 5953 53 Blue 7
10 AM Wed 68 69 E 10 10139 9690 3790 Blue 11
11 AM Wed 72 74 E 10 11264 10583 4683 Blue 16
12 Noon Wed 74 77 E 10 12931 11184 5284 Blue 19
1 PM Wed 75 77 E 12 12931 11184 5284 Blue 19
2 PM Wed 76 78 E 13 13973 11584 5684 Blue 20
3 PM Wed 76 77 E 13 12931 11184 5284 Blue 19
4 PM Wed 74 74 E 14 11264 10583 4683 Blue 16
5 PM Wed 69 69 E 14 10139 9690 3790 Blue 11
6 PM Wed 61 61 E 13 5713 5900 0 Blue 3
7 PM Wed 56 56 E 12 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 52 52 E 9 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 51 51 E 8 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 49 49 E 7 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 48 48 E 6 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 48 48 E 6 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 48 48 E 6 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 48 48 E 7 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 47 47 E 7 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 49 49 E 8 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 48 48 E 9 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 46 46 E 8 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 47 47 E 8 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 54 54 E 8 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 67 68 E 7 9887 9601 3701 Blue 10
10 AM Thu 71 73 E 7 10970 10489 4589 Blue 15
11 AM Thu 74 77 E 7 12931 11184 5284 Blue 19
12 Noon Thu 76 79 E 7 14890 11978 6078 Blue 21
1 PM Thu 78 81 E 8 16153 13693 7793 Blue 23
2 PM Thu 78 80 E 8 15634 12649 6749 Blue 22
3 PM Thu 78 79 E 9 14890 11978 6078 Blue 21
4 PM Thu 76 76 E 9 12066 10923 5023 Blue 18
5 PM Thu 72 72 E 10 10721 10048 4148 Blue 14
6 PM Thu 63 63 E 9 6770 5900 0 Blue 5
7 PM Thu 57 57 E 9 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 54 54 E 8 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 52 52 E 7 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 50 50 E 6 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 49 49 E 6 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 49 49 E 6 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 49 49 E 6 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 49 49 E 7 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 48 E 7 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 50 50 E 7 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 48 48 E 8 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 47 47 E 7 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 48 48 E 7 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 54 54 E 6 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 67 68 E 6 9887 9601 3701 Blue 10
10 AM Fri 70 72 E 5 10721 10048 4148 Blue 14
11 AM Fri 74 77 E 5 12931 11184 5284 Blue 19
12 Noon Fri 76 79 E 5 14890 11978 6078 Blue 21
1 PM Fri 77 80 E 6 15634 12649 6749 Blue 22
2 PM Fri 78 80 NE 6 15634 12649 6749 Blue 22
3 PM Fri 78 79 N 7 14890 11978 6078 Blue 21
4 PM Fri 76 76 N 8 12066 10923 5023 Blue 18
5 PM Fri 71 71 N 8 10599 9871 3971 Blue 13
6 PM Fri 63 63 NW 8 6770 5900 0 Blue 5
7 PM Fri 57 57 NW 8 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 54 54 W 7 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 52 52 W 7 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 50 50 SW 6 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 49 49 SW 5 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 50 50 S 5 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 49 49 S 3 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 49 49 S 3 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 48 48 S 3 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 50 50 S 3 5000 5900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com