Detailed Predictions for: Mustang Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 5100
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

17 SEP 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 57 57 SW 5 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 57 57 W 5 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 61 62 W 5 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 68 70 W 5 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 72 76 NW 5 9323 6146 246 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 76 80 N 5 11534 10451 4551 Blue 9
12 Noon Tue 80 84 N 5 13713 11927 6027 White 13
1 PM Tue 82 86 N 6 14132 14132 8232 White 15
2 PM Tue 82 85 NW 7 13922 12875 6975 White 14
3 PM Tue 80 82 NW 8 13102 11197 5297 Blue 11
4 PM Tue 81 82 NW 8 13102 11197 5297 Blue 11
5 PM Tue 80 80 NW 8 11534 10451 4551 Blue 9
6 PM Tue 79 79 NW 8 11241 8982 3082 Blue 8
7 PM Tue 74 74 NW 7 6489 5900 0 Blue 3
8 PM Tue 69 69 W 7 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 66 66 W 6 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 65 65 W 5 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 64 64 W 5 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 63 63 W 5 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 62 62 W 5 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 61 61 W 6 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 60 60 W 6 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 59 59 W 5 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 60 60 SW 5 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 59 59 SW 3 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 58 58 S 3 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 62 63 S 3 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 70 72 SE 3 5820 5900 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 74 77 SE 3 10785 6475 575 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 78 81 SE 3 12149 10971 5071 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 82 86 SE 3 14132 14132 8232 White 15
1 PM Wed 84 88 S 5 14546 14546 8646 White 17
2 PM Wed 84 87 SW 5 14340 14340 8440 White 16
3 PM Wed 83 85 SW 6 13922 12875 6975 White 14
4 PM Wed 83 84 W 6 13713 11927 6027 White 13
5 PM Wed 82 82 W 7 13102 11197 5297 Blue 11
6 PM Wed 81 81 W 7 12149 10971 5071 Blue 10
7 PM Wed 76 76 W 7 9323 6146 246 Blue 5
8 PM Wed 70 70 SW 7 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 68 68 SW 7 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 66 66 SW 7 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 65 65 SW 7 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 64 64 SW 7 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 64 64 SW 7 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 62 62 SW 6 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 61 61 SW 6 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 60 60 SW 6 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 60 60 SW 6 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 59 59 SW 6 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 59 59 SW 6 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 63 63 SW 6 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 69 71 SW 6 5474 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 73 76 SW 7 9323 6146 246 Blue 5
11 AM Thu 77 81 SW 9 12149 10971 5071 Blue 10
12 Noon Thu 80 84 SW 10 13713 11927 6027 White 13
1 PM Thu 82 86 SW 10 14132 14132 8232 White 15
2 PM Thu 82 86 SW 10 14132 14132 8232 White 15
3 PM Thu 81 84 SW 10 13713 11927 6027 White 13
4 PM Thu 82 83 SW 12 13504 11463 5563 White 12
5 PM Thu 80 80 SW 13 11534 10451 4551 Blue 9
6 PM Thu 79 79 SW 13 11241 8982 3082 Blue 8
7 PM Thu 74 74 SW 12 6489 5900 0 Blue 3
8 PM Thu 68 68 SW 9 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 66 66 SW 8 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 64 64 SW 7 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 63 63 SW 7 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 62 62 SW 7 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 61 61 SW 7 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 60 60 SW 7 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 59 59 S 7 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 58 58 S 7 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 58 58 S 6 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 57 57 S 6 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 57 57 S 6 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 61 62 S 7 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 68 70 S 7 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 73 77 SW 8 10785 6475 575 Blue 6
11 AM Fri 77 82 SW 8 13102 11197 5297 Blue 11
12 Noon Fri 81 87 SW 9 14340 14340 8440 White 16
1 PM Fri 83 89 SW 10 14752 14752 8852 White 18
2 PM Fri 83 88 SW 10 14546 14546 8646 White 17
3 PM Fri 82 86 SW 12 14132 14132 8232 White 15
4 PM Fri 82 84 SW 12 13713 11927 6027 White 13
5 PM Fri 81 81 SW 12 12149 10971 5071 Blue 10
6 PM Fri 80 80 SW 12 11534 10451 4551 Blue 9
7 PM Fri 74 74 SW 10 6489 5900 0 Blue 3
8 PM Fri 68 68 SW 10 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 65 65 SW 9 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 64 64 SW 8 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 62 62 SW 7 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 61 61 SW 6 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 61 61 SW 6 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 59 59 SW 5 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 58 58 S 5 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 57 57 S 6 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 57 57 S 6 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 56 56 S 6 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 56 56 S 6 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 60 61 S 7 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 68 70 S 7 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 73 77 S 7 10785 6475 575 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 78 83 S 8 13504 11463 5563 White 12
12 Noon Sat 82 87 S 8 14340 14340 8440 White 16
1 PM Sat 84 89 SW 8 14752 14752 8852 White 18
2 PM Sat 84 88 SW 9 14546 14546 8646 White 17
3 PM Sat 83 86 SW 9 14132 14132 8232 White 15
4 PM Sat 84 86 SW 10 14132 14132 8232 White 15
5 PM Sat 82 82 W 10 13102 11197 5297 Blue 11
6 PM Sat 81 81 W 10 12149 10971 5071 Blue 10
7 PM Sat 76 76 W 10 9323 6146 246 Blue 5
8 PM Sat 69 69 W 9 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 66 66 SW 8 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 65 65 SW 7 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 63 63 SW 7 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 62 62 SW 6 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 62 62 SW 6 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 60 60 SW 5 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 59 59 SW 5 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 58 58 SW 5 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 58 58 S 5 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 57 57 S 5 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 57 57 S 5 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 61 62 S 5 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 69 71 S 5 5474 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 74 77 S 5 10785 6475 575 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 78 82 S 6 13102 11197 5297 Blue 11
12 Noon Sun 82 87 SW 6 14340 14340 8440 White 16
1 PM Sun 84 89 SW 7 14752 14752 8852 White 18
2 PM Sun 84 88 SW 7 14546 14546 8646 White 17
3 PM Sun 83 86 SW 8 14132 14132 8232 White 15
4 PM Sun 83 84 SW 9 13713 11927 6027 White 13
5 PM Sun 82 82 W 10 13102 11197 5297 Blue 11
6 PM Sun 81 81 W 10 12149 10971 5071 Blue 10
7 PM Sun 76 76 W 10 9323 6146 246 Blue 5
8 PM Sun 69 69 W 9 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 67 67 SW 9 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 65 65 SW 8 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 64 64 SW 8 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 62 62 SW 7 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 62 62 SW 7 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 61 61 SW 7 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 59 59 SW 7 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 58 58 SW 7 4990 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 59 59 S 7 4990 5900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com