Detailed Predictions for: Mustang Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 5100
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 64 64 W 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 63 63 W 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 67 67 NW 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 78 80 NW 7 7712 5903 3 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 80 83 NW 7 9592 7657 1757 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 83 87 N 7 12827 10823 4923 White 9
12 Noon Tue 85 89 N 7 13252 13252 7352 White 11
1 PM Tue 87 91 N 7 13675 13675 7775 White 13
2 PM Tue 87 90 N 7 13464 13464 7564 White 12
3 PM Tue 88 90 N 8 13464 13464 7564 White 12
4 PM Tue 87 88 N 9 13040 13040 7140 White 10
5 PM Tue 87 87 NW 12 12827 10823 4923 White 9
6 PM Tue 86 86 NW 13 12615 9533 3633 White 8
7 PM Tue 82 82 W 13 9039 6939 1039 Blue 4
8 PM Tue 77 77 W 13 5910 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 72 72 W 12 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 71 71 W 12 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 70 70 SW 10 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 68 68 SW 10 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 66 66 SW 9 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 65 65 SW 9 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 65 65 SW 8 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 64 64 SW 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 64 64 SW 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 64 64 SW 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 63 63 SW 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 65 65 SW 8 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 69 69 SW 8 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 70 70 SW 8 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 71 71 SW 8 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 72 72 SW 8 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 72 72 W 9 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 72 72 W 10 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 73 73 W 10 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 72 72 W 10 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 72 72 W 9 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 71 71 W 8 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 70 70 W 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 66 66 W 6 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 64 64 SW 6 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 63 63 SW 6 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 62 62 S 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 61 61 S 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 60 60 S 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 59 59 S 6 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 60 60 SW 6 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 59 59 SW 6 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 59 59 W 6 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 59 59 NW 6 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 58 58 NW 6 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 61 61 N 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 67 67 N 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 69 70 N 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 70 71 N 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 72 74 N 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 73 75 N 7 5250 5900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 73 74 N 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 74 75 N 7 5250 5900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 73 73 N 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 73 73 W 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 72 72 W 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 70 70 W 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 66 66 SW 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 64 64 SW 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 63 63 SW 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 62 62 SW 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 61 61 SW 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 60 60 SW 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 59 59 SW 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 60 60 SW 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 59 59 SW 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 59 59 SW 6 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 59 59 S 6 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 58 58 SW 6 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 62 62 W 5 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 71 72 W 5 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 73 75 NW 5 5250 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 75 78 N 5 6236 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 77 81 N 5 8405 6226 326 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 78 82 N 5 9039 6939 1039 Blue 4
2 PM Fri 78 81 N 6 8405 6226 326 Blue 3
3 PM Fri 79 81 NW 6 8405 6226 326 Blue 3
4 PM Fri 79 80 NW 6 7712 5903 3 Blue 2
5 PM Fri 78 78 NW 7 6236 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 77 77 NW 7 5910 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 75 75 NW 7 5250 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 70 70 NW 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 66 66 NW 6 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 65 65 NW 6 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 64 64 NW 5 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 63 63 NW 5 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 62 62 NW 5 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 60 60 N 3 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 61 61 N 3 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 60 60 N 3 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 60 60 N 3 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 59 59 N 3 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 59 59 NE 5 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 63 63 NE 5 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 72 74 NE 6 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 74 77 NE 7 5910 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 77 82 E 8 9039 6939 1039 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 79 84 E 8 11032 8339 2439 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 80 85 E 8 12402 8931 3031 White 7
2 PM Sat 81 85 E 7 12402 8931 3031 White 7
3 PM Sat 82 85 E 7 12402 8931 3031 White 7
4 PM Sat 81 82 E 6 9039 6939 1039 Blue 4
5 PM Sat 81 81 E 5 8405 6226 326 Blue 3
6 PM Sat 79 79 E 5 6980 5900 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sat 77 77 E 5 5910 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 72 72 E 5 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 68 68 E 6 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 66 66 E 6 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 66 66 SE 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 64 64 SE 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 62 62 SE 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 61 61 E 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 61 61 E 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 60 60 E 6 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 61 61 E 6 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 60 60 E 6 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 59 59 E 6 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 63 64 E 6 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 74 76 E 7 5582 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 76 80 E 7 7712 5903 3 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 79 84 E 7 11032 8339 2439 Blue 6
12 Noon Sun 81 86 E 7 12615 9533 3633 White 8
1 PM Sun 82 87 SE 7 12827 10823 4923 White 9
2 PM Sun 83 87 S 6 12827 10823 4923 White 9
3 PM Sun 84 87 S 6 12827 10823 4923 White 9
4 PM Sun 83 84 SW 6 11032 8339 2439 Blue 6
5 PM Sun 83 83 W 5 9592 7657 1757 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 81 81 W 5 8405 6226 326 Blue 3
7 PM Sun 78 78 W 5 6236 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 73 73 W 5 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 69 69 SW 5 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 67 67 SW 6 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 66 66 SW 6 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 64 64 S 6 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 63 63 S 6 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 61 61 SW 6 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 62 62 SW 6 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 61 61 SW 5 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 61 61 SW 5 5197 5900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com