Detailed Predictions for: Mustang Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 5100
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 26 26 E 29 2940 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 27 27 E 29 2940 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 27 27 E 28 2940 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 34 34 E 28 3140 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 38 39 E 30 7313 5900 0 Blue 3
10 AM Tue 42 44 E 31 7605 7423 1523 Blue 8
11 AM Tue 44 47 E 32 8403 7593 1693 Blue 11
12 Noon Tue 46 50 E 32 8703 8365 2465 Blue 14
1 PM Tue 48 51 E 31 8743 8618 2718 Blue 15
2 PM Tue 49 52 E 29 8784 8658 2758 Blue 16
3 PM Tue 49 50 E 28 8703 8365 2465 Blue 14
4 PM Tue 47 47 E 26 8403 7593 1693 Blue 11
5 PM Tue 44 44 E 25 7605 7423 1523 Blue 8
6 PM Tue 40 40 E 24 7382 6495 595 Blue 4
7 PM Tue 37 37 E 23 6534 5900 0 Blue 1
8 PM Tue 34 34 E 23 3140 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 33 33 E 23 2940 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 32 32 E 23 2940 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 30 30 E 23 2940 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 31 31 E 22 2940 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 31 31 E 21 2940 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 30 30 E 21 2940 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 30 30 E 21 2940 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 29 29 E 21 2940 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 29 29 E 22 2940 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 30 30 E 21 2940 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 29 29 E 20 2940 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 38 38 E 18 7090 5900 0 Blue 2
9 AM Wed 44 45 E 20 7746 7469 1569 Blue 9
10 AM Wed 48 50 E 22 8703 8365 2465 Blue 14
11 AM Wed 51 53 E 23 8824 8698 2798 Blue 17
12 Noon Wed 54 56 E 22 9010 8819 2919 Blue 20
1 PM Wed 55 57 E 21 9095 8859 2959 Blue 21
2 PM Wed 56 57 E 18 9095 8859 2959 Blue 21
3 PM Wed 56 57 E 18 9095 8859 2959 Blue 21
4 PM Wed 54 54 E 17 8864 8738 2838 Blue 18
5 PM Wed 50 50 E 16 8703 8365 2465 Blue 14
6 PM Wed 45 45 E 16 7746 7469 1569 Blue 9
7 PM Wed 42 42 E 15 7472 7297 1397 Blue 6
8 PM Wed 38 38 E 15 7090 5900 0 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 36 36 E 14 5591 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 35 35 E 14 4486 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 33 33 E 14 2940 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 34 34 E 13 3140 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 34 34 E 13 3140 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 33 33 E 13 2940 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 32 32 E 13 2940 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 31 31 E 12 2940 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 31 31 E 12 2940 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 32 32 E 13 2940 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 32 32 E 13 2940 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 42 42 E 13 7472 7297 1397 Blue 6
9 AM Thu 48 49 E 14 8663 8017 2117 Blue 13
10 AM Thu 53 55 E 14 8924 8779 2879 Blue 19
11 AM Thu 56 59 E 14 9448 8998 3098 Blue 23
12 Noon Thu 59 63 E 13 10265 9623 3723 Blue 27
1 PM Thu 61 64 E 13 10488 9826 3926 Blue 28
2 PM Thu 62 65 E 12 10980 10028 4128 Blue 29
3 PM Thu 62 63 E 12 10265 9623 3723 Blue 27
4 PM Thu 60 60 E 10 9653 9084 3184 Blue 24
5 PM Thu 56 56 E 9 9010 8819 2919 Blue 20
6 PM Thu 50 50 E 9 8703 8365 2465 Blue 14
7 PM Thu 46 46 E 8 8051 7514 1614 Blue 10
8 PM Thu 42 42 E 8 7472 7297 1397 Blue 6
9 PM Thu 40 40 E 8 7382 6495 595 Blue 4
10 PM Thu 38 38 E 7 7090 5900 0 Blue 2
11 PM Thu 36 36 E 7 5591 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 37 37 E 7 6534 5900 0 Blue 1
1 AM Fri 37 37 E 7 6534 5900 0 Blue 1
2 AM Fri 36 36 E 8 5591 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 36 36 E 8 5591 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 34 34 E 8 3140 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 34 34 E 8 3140 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 35 35 E 8 4486 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 35 35 E 8 4486 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 44 44 SE 8 7605 7423 1523 Blue 8
9 AM Fri 51 52 SE 8 8784 8658 2758 Blue 16
10 AM Fri 55 57 SE 8 9095 8859 2959 Blue 21
11 AM Fri 59 62 SE 7 10061 9419 3519 Blue 26
12 Noon Fri 62 65 SE 8 10980 10028 4128 Blue 29
1 PM Fri 64 67 S 8 12348 10448 4548 Blue 31
2 PM Fri 64 66 S 8 11684 10230 4330 Blue 30
3 PM Fri 64 65 SW 8 10980 10028 4128 Blue 29
4 PM Fri 62 62 W 8 10061 9419 3519 Blue 26
5 PM Fri 58 58 W 8 9243 8913 3013 Blue 22
6 PM Fri 53 53 W 8 8824 8698 2798 Blue 17
7 PM Fri 49 49 W 8 8663 8017 2117 Blue 13
8 PM Fri 45 45 W 7 7746 7469 1569 Blue 9
9 PM Fri 43 43 SW 7 7517 7378 1478 Blue 7
10 PM Fri 42 42 SW 7 7472 7297 1397 Blue 6
11 PM Fri 40 40 SW 7 7382 6495 595 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sat 40 40 SW 7 7382 6495 595 Blue 4
1 AM Sat 40 40 SW 7 7382 6495 595 Blue 4
2 AM Sat 39 39 S 7 7313 5900 0 Blue 3
3 AM Sat 39 39 S 7 7313 5900 0 Blue 3
4 AM Sat 38 38 SE 7 7090 5900 0 Blue 2
5 AM Sat 37 37 SE 7 6534 5900 0 Blue 1
6 AM Sat 38 38 SE 7 7090 5900 0 Blue 2
7 AM Sat 38 38 S 7 7090 5900 0 Blue 2
8 AM Sat 47 47 S 7 8403 7593 1693 Blue 11
9 AM Sat 52 52 S 7 8784 8658 2758 Blue 16
10 AM Sat 57 58 S 7 9243 8913 3013 Blue 22
11 AM Sat 60 62 S 8 10061 9419 3519 Blue 26
12 Noon Sat 62 65 S 8 10980 10028 4128 Blue 29
1 PM Sat 64 67 SW 8 12348 10448 4548 Blue 31
2 PM Sat 65 67 SW 8 12348 10448 4548 Blue 31
3 PM Sat 65 66 W 8 11684 10230 4330 Blue 30
4 PM Sat 63 63 W 8 10265 9623 3723 Blue 27
5 PM Sat 59 59 W 8 9448 8998 3098 Blue 23
6 PM Sat 53 53 W 8 8824 8698 2798 Blue 17
7 PM Sat 49 49 W 8 8663 8017 2117 Blue 13
8 PM Sat 45 45 W 7 7746 7469 1569 Blue 9
9 PM Sat 43 43 SW 7 7517 7378 1478 Blue 7
10 PM Sat 42 42 SW 6 7472 7297 1397 Blue 6
11 PM Sat 40 40 SW 6 7382 6495 595 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sun 41 41 SW 6 7427 7076 1176 Blue 5
1 AM Sun 40 40 S 6 7382 6495 595 Blue 4
2 AM Sun 40 40 S 7 7382 6495 595 Blue 4
3 AM Sun 39 39 SE 7 7313 5900 0 Blue 3
4 AM Sun 38 38 E 7 7090 5900 0 Blue 2
5 AM Sun 38 38 E 8 7090 5900 0 Blue 2
6 AM Sun 38 38 E 8 7090 5900 0 Blue 2
7 AM Sun 38 38 E 8 7090 5900 0 Blue 2
8 AM Sun 47 47 E 8 8403 7593 1693 Blue 11
9 AM Sun 53 53 E 9 8824 8698 2798 Blue 17
10 AM Sun 57 58 E 9 9243 8913 3013 Blue 22
11 AM Sun 60 61 E 9 9858 9215 3315 Blue 25
12 Noon Sun 63 65 E 9 10980 10028 4128 Blue 29
1 PM Sun 64 66 E 9 11684 10230 4330 Blue 30
2 PM Sun 65 66 E 9 11684 10230 4330 Blue 30
3 PM Sun 65 66 E 9 11684 10230 4330 Blue 30
4 PM Sun 63 63 NE 9 10265 9623 3723 Blue 27
5 PM Sun 59 59 NE 9 9448 8998 3098 Blue 23
6 PM Sun 54 54 NE 9 8864 8738 2838 Blue 18
7 PM Sun 50 50 E 9 8703 8365 2465 Blue 14
8 PM Sun 46 46 E 9 8051 7514 1614 Blue 10
9 PM Sun 44 44 E 8 7605 7423 1523 Blue 8
10 PM Sun 42 42 E 8 7472 7297 1397 Blue 6
11 PM Sun 40 40 E 8 7382 6495 595 Blue 4
12 Midnight Mon 41 41 E 8 7427 7076 1176 Blue 5
1 AM Mon 41 41 E 8 7427 7076 1176 Blue 5
2 AM Mon 40 40 E 8 7382 6495 595 Blue 4
3 AM Mon 39 39 E 8 7313 5900 0 Blue 3
4 AM Mon 38 38 E 8 7090 5900 0 Blue 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com