Detailed Predictions for: Mustang Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 5100
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

12Z 23 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sat 53 53 SW 8 4843 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 52 52 SW 8 4843 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 56 56 SW 7 4843 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 63 65 S 8 9617 7595 1695 Blue 6
10 AM Sat 67 70 S 12 11011 10232 4332 Blue 11
11 AM Sat 70 74 SW 15 12149 11136 5236 Blue 15
12 Noon Sat 73 79 SW 18 14149 12825 6925 White 20
1 PM Sat 74 80 SW 20 14358 13231 7331 White 21
2 PM Sat 75 80 SW 21 14358 13231 7331 White 21
3 PM Sat 76 79 SW 21 14149 12825 6925 White 20
4 PM Sat 76 78 SW 21 13939 12445 6545 White 19
5 PM Sat 74 74 SW 20 12149 11136 5236 Blue 15
6 PM Sat 72 72 SW 18 11366 10827 4927 Blue 13
7 PM Sat 68 68 SW 16 10475 9561 3661 Blue 9
8 PM Sat 62 62 W 14 7629 5900 0 Blue 3
9 PM Sat 58 58 W 12 4843 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 55 55 W 10 4843 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 54 54 W 9 4843 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 53 53 W 8 4843 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 52 52 W 7 4843 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 51 51 W 7 4843 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 50 50 W 6 4843 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 49 49 W 5 4843 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 47 47 NW 5 4843 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 46 46 NW 3 4843 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 46 46 N 3 4843 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 50 51 E 3 4843 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 59 61 E 3 7183 5900 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sun 65 69 SE 3 10855 9951 4051 Blue 10
11 AM Sun 69 75 SW 3 12538 11290 5390 Blue 16
12 Noon Sun 72 78 SW 5 13939 12445 6545 White 19
1 PM Sun 74 80 W 6 14358 13231 7331 White 21
2 PM Sun 75 80 W 7 14358 13231 7331 White 21
3 PM Sun 76 80 W 8 14358 13231 7331 White 21
4 PM Sun 76 78 W 10 13939 12445 6545 White 19
5 PM Sun 74 74 NW 13 12149 11136 5236 Blue 15
6 PM Sun 72 72 NW 14 11366 10827 4927 Blue 13
7 PM Sun 68 68 NW 13 10475 9561 3661 Blue 9
8 PM Sun 62 62 NW 12 7629 5900 0 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 58 58 NW 9 4843 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 55 55 NW 8 4843 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 54 54 NW 7 4843 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 53 53 NW 7 4843 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 52 52 NW 7 4843 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 51 51 NW 6 4843 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 50 50 NW 6 4843 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 49 49 N 5 4843 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 47 47 E 3 4843 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 46 46 SE 3 4843 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 46 46 SE 3 4843 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 50 51 SE 3 4843 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 60 62 SE 5 7629 5900 0 Blue 3
10 AM Mon 66 70 S 6 11011 10232 4332 Blue 11
11 AM Mon 70 76 S 7 12921 11676 5776 Blue 17
12 Noon Mon 73 79 SW 8 14149 12825 6925 White 20
1 PM Mon 75 81 SW 9 14568 13809 7909 White 22
2 PM Mon 76 81 W 10 14568 13809 7909 White 22
3 PM Mon 77 81 W 12 14568 13809 7909 White 22
4 PM Mon 77 79 W 13 14149 12825 6925 White 20
5 PM Mon 75 75 W 13 12538 11290 5390 Blue 16
6 PM Mon 73 73 W 13 11759 10981 5081 Blue 14
7 PM Mon 69 69 W 12 10855 9951 4051 Blue 10
8 PM Mon 63 63 W 9 8519 6734 834 Blue 4
9 PM Mon 59 59 W 7 5791 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 55 55 W 6 4843 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 55 55 W 6 4843 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 53 53 W 6 4843 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 52 52 SW 5 4843 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 51 51 S 3 4843 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 50 50 SE 3 4843 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 49 49 SE 3 4843 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 47 47 SE 5 4843 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 46 46 SE 5 4843 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 46 46 SE 5 4843 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 51 SE 5 4843 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 60 62 SE 6 7629 5900 0 Blue 3
10 AM Tue 67 71 SE 6 11166 10439 4539 Blue 12
11 AM Tue 71 76 S 6 12921 11676 5776 Blue 17
12 Noon Tue 74 79 S 6 14149 12825 6925 White 20
1 PM Tue 77 82 S 6 14776 14776 8876 White 23
2 PM Tue 78 82 S 6 14776 14776 8876 White 23
3 PM Tue 78 81 S 6 14568 13809 7909 White 22
4 PM Tue 78 79 SW 6 14149 12825 6925 White 20
5 PM Tue 77 77 SW 6 13347 12060 6160 Blue 18
6 PM Tue 75 75 SW 6 12538 11290 5390 Blue 16
7 PM Tue 71 71 SW 6 11166 10439 4539 Blue 12
8 PM Tue 65 65 SW 6 9617 7595 1695 Blue 6
9 PM Tue 61 61 SW 5 7183 5900 0 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 58 58 SW 5 4843 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 58 58 SW 5 4843 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 56 56 SW 5 4843 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 55 55 SW 5 4843 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 54 54 S 5 4843 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 53 53 S 5 4843 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 52 52 SE 5 4843 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 50 50 SE 6 4843 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 50 50 E 6 4843 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 49 49 E 6 4843 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 53 53 E 7 4843 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 62 64 SE 8 9217 7155 1255 Blue 5
10 AM Wed 68 71 SE 8 11166 10439 4539 Blue 12
11 AM Wed 72 76 SE 9 12921 11676 5776 Blue 17
12 Noon Wed 75 79 SE 9 14149 12825 6925 White 20
1 PM Wed 78 82 SE 9 14776 14776 8876 White 23
2 PM Wed 79 82 E 9 14776 14776 8876 White 23
3 PM Wed 79 81 E 9 14568 13809 7909 White 22
4 PM Wed 79 80 E 9 14358 13231 7331 White 21
5 PM Wed 78 78 E 9 13939 12445 6545 White 19
6 PM Wed 76 76 E 9 12921 11676 5776 Blue 17
7 PM Wed 72 72 E 9 11366 10827 4927 Blue 13
8 PM Wed 67 67 E 9 10266 9165 3265 Blue 8
9 PM Wed 64 64 E 10 9217 7155 1255 Blue 5
10 PM Wed 61 61 E 10 7183 5900 0 Blue 2
11 PM Wed 60 60 E 10 6755 5900 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 59 59 E 10 5791 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 58 58 E 10 4843 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 57 57 E 9 4843 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 56 56 E 9 4843 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 55 55 E 9 4843 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 54 54 E 8 4843 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 53 53 E 8 4843 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 53 53 E 8 4843 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 56 56 E 8 4843 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 64 65 SE 8 9617 7595 1695 Blue 6
10 AM Thu 69 72 SE 9 11366 10827 4927 Blue 13
11 AM Thu 72 76 SE 9 12921 11676 5776 Blue 17
12 Noon Thu 74 78 SE 9 13939 12445 6545 White 19
1 PM Thu 76 80 SE 9 14358 13231 7331 White 21
2 PM Thu 77 81 SE 8 14568 13809 7909 White 22
3 PM Thu 78 80 SE 8 14358 13231 7331 White 21
4 PM Thu 78 79 SE 8 14149 12825 6925 White 20
5 PM Thu 77 77 SE 8 13347 12060 6160 Blue 18
6 PM Thu 75 75 SE 8 12538 11290 5390 Blue 16
7 PM Thu 71 71 SE 9 11166 10439 4539 Blue 12
8 PM Thu 67 67 SE 10 10266 9165 3265 Blue 8
9 PM Thu 64 64 SE 12 9217 7155 1255 Blue 5
10 PM Thu 61 61 E 13 7183 5900 0 Blue 2
11 PM Thu 61 61 E 14 7183 5900 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Fri 59 59 E 15 5791 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 58 58 E 15 4843 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 58 58 E 15 4843 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 57 57 E 15 4843 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 56 56 E 15 4843 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 55 55 E 15 4843 5900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com