Detailed Predictions for: Mustang Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 5100
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

1 DEC 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 33 33 SE 5 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 34 34 E 3 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 31 31 N 5 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 39 39 NE 2 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 49 50 NE 3 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 54 56 N 6 6092 5900 0 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 59 62 NW 6 7439 6595 695 Blue 9
12 Noon Tue 62 65 NW 8 8578 7413 1513 Blue 12
1 PM Tue 64 67 NW 10 9476 8127 2227 Blue 14
2 PM Tue 64 66 NW 13 9032 7772 1872 Blue 13
3 PM Tue 63 64 NW 13 8160 7050 1150 Blue 11
4 PM Tue 61 61 NW 13 7072 6426 526 Blue 8
5 PM Tue 56 56 NW 12 6092 5900 0 Blue 3
6 PM Tue 49 49 NW 10 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 45 45 NW 10 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 41 41 NW 9 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 39 39 NW 7 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 37 37 N 6 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 35 35 E 6 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 35 35 E 6 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 34 34 E 7 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 34 34 E 7 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 32 32 E 8 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 32 32 E 8 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 32 32 E 8 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 31 31 E 7 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 30 30 E 8 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 38 38 E 8 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 45 46 E 10 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 49 51 E 10 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 53 56 E 10 6092 5900 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Wed 56 59 SE 10 6603 6087 187 Blue 6
1 PM Wed 60 63 SW 9 7802 6764 864 Blue 10
2 PM Wed 62 64 SW 9 8160 7050 1150 Blue 11
3 PM Wed 61 62 W 8 7439 6595 695 Blue 9
4 PM Wed 58 58 NW 8 6433 5932 32 Blue 5
5 PM Wed 53 53 N 7 5715 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 48 48 N 7 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 42 42 NE 6 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 38 38 E 6 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 35 35 E 6 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 33 33 SE 5 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 32 32 SE 6 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 31 31 SE 7 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 30 30 E 8 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 29 29 E 9 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 28 28 E 10 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 27 27 E 10 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 27 27 E 12 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 27 27 E 13 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 29 29 E 14 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 31 31 E 15 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 35 35 E 16 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 40 41 E 18 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 44 46 E 21 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 47 49 E 21 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 49 51 E 20 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 50 52 E 20 5225 5900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 50 51 E 18 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 48 48 E 17 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 45 45 E 16 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 40 40 E 15 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 36 36 E 14 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 32 32 E 14 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 30 30 E 14 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 29 29 E 14 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 29 29 E 14 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 28 28 E 14 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 28 28 E 14 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 27 27 E 14 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 26 26 E 14 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 26 26 E 13 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 25 25 E 13 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 26 26 E 12 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 27 27 E 12 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 30 30 E 12 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 34 34 E 13 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 39 40 E 14 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 44 46 E 15 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 47 50 E 15 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 50 52 E 15 5225 5900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 51 53 E 15 5715 5900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 50 51 E 14 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 49 49 E 12 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 46 46 E 10 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 42 42 E 9 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 38 38 E 9 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 34 34 E 9 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 32 32 E 9 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 31 31 E 9 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 30 30 E 9 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 30 30 E 9 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 30 30 E 9 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 29 29 E 9 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 29 29 E 9 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 28 28 E 10 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 28 28 E 10 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 29 29 E 10 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 31 31 E 10 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 34 34 E 10 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 38 38 E 12 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 44 45 E 14 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 48 50 E 15 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 52 55 E 15 5935 5900 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sat 54 56 E 15 6092 5900 0 Blue 3
2 PM Sat 55 57 E 15 6263 5900 0 Blue 4
3 PM Sat 54 55 E 14 5935 5900 0 Blue 2
4 PM Sat 52 52 E 13 5225 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 49 49 E 12 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 44 44 E 12 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 40 40 E 10 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 36 36 E 10 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 34 34 E 10 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 33 33 E 9 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 33 33 E 9 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 32 32 E 9 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 32 32 E 8 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 31 31 E 8 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 31 31 E 8 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 30 30 E 9 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 30 30 E 9 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 30 30 E 8 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 32 32 E 8 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 35 35 E 8 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 40 40 E 9 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 45 46 E 12 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 49 51 E 14 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 53 55 E 15 5935 5900 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sun 56 58 E 14 6433 5932 32 Blue 5
2 PM Sun 56 58 E 14 6433 5932 32 Blue 5
3 PM Sun 56 57 E 13 6263 5900 0 Blue 4
4 PM Sun 54 54 E 13 5825 5900 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sun 50 50 E 12 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 46 46 E 12 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 41 41 E 10 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 37 37 E 10 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 35 35 E 9 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 34 34 E 9 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 33 33 E 8 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 32 32 E 8 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 32 32 E 8 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 31 31 E 8 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 31 31 E 8 4984 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 30 30 E 8 4984 5900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com