Detailed Predictions for: Mustang Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 5100
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

21 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sat 64 64 S 13 5033 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 63 63 S 12 5033 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 70 70 SW 9 5033 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 72 73 NE 7 5033 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 75 78 NE 6 6545 5917 17 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 79 83 E 7 8162 7714 1814 Blue 9
12 Noon Sat 82 87 NE 7 13448 9760 3860 White 13
1 PM Sat 84 88 NE 6 13658 10810 4910 White 14
2 PM Sat 84 88 W 7 13658 10810 4910 White 14
3 PM Sat 83 86 W 7 11450 8149 2249 Blue 12
4 PM Sat 84 86 W 9 11450 8149 2249 Blue 12
5 PM Sat 83 83 W 12 8162 7714 1814 Blue 9
6 PM Sat 81 81 W 13 7871 6537 637 Blue 7
7 PM Sat 80 80 W 12 7726 6330 430 Blue 6
8 PM Sat 77 77 W 13 6338 5900 0 Blue 3
9 PM Sat 73 73 NW 13 5033 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 72 72 W 12 5033 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 71 71 W 10 5033 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 69 69 W 8 5033 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 69 69 W 7 5033 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 68 68 W 8 5033 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 68 68 W 7 5033 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 67 67 W 7 5033 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 67 67 NW 6 5033 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 67 67 NW 6 5033 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 66 66 NW 6 5033 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 74 75 SW 7 5921 5900 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sun 76 78 W 6 6545 5917 17 Blue 4
10 AM Sun 79 83 W 5 8162 7714 1814 Blue 9
11 AM Sun 84 89 NE 6 13868 11346 5446 White 15
12 Noon Sun 88 93 NE 7 14707 14707 8807 White 19
1 PM Sun 89 94 NE 7 14917 14917 9017 White 20
2 PM Sun 90 94 N 12 14917 14917 9017 White 20
3 PM Sun 88 91 N 12 14289 14289 8389 White 17
4 PM Sun 90 92 NW 10 14498 14498 8598 White 18
5 PM Sun 89 90 W 12 14078 11865 5965 White 16
6 PM Sun 86 86 W 14 11450 8149 2249 Blue 12
7 PM Sun 84 84 W 14 10024 7859 1959 Blue 10
8 PM Sun 82 82 W 14 8017 6742 842 Blue 8
9 PM Sun 76 76 W 13 6130 5900 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 75 75 W 12 5921 5900 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sun 74 74 W 10 5712 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 71 71 W 10 5033 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 71 71 W 9 5033 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 70 70 W 9 5033 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 69 69 W 9 5033 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 69 69 W 8 5033 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 68 68 W 7 5033 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 68 68 W 7 5033 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 68 68 W 6 5033 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 76 77 NW 5 6338 5900 0 Blue 3
9 AM Mon 79 82 NW 6 8017 6742 842 Blue 8
10 AM Mon 83 88 N 6 13658 10810 4910 White 14
11 AM Mon 88 94 E 6 14917 14917 9017 White 20
12 Noon Mon 92 99 SE 7 15945 15945 10045 White 25
1 PM Mon 94 101 SE 7 16350 16350 10450 White 27
2 PM Mon 96 102 N 7 16551 16551 10651 White 28
3 PM Mon 94 98 W 7 15742 15742 9842 White 24
4 PM Mon 96 99 W 7 15945 15945 10045 White 25
5 PM Mon 94 95 SW 8 15125 15125 9225 White 21
6 PM Mon 90 90 SW 8 14078 11865 5965 White 16
7 PM Mon 89 89 SW 8 13868 11346 5446 White 15
8 PM Mon 85 85 SW 9 10908 8004 2104 Blue 11
9 PM Mon 79 79 SW 8 6752 6124 224 Blue 5
10 PM Mon 78 78 S 8 6545 5917 17 Blue 4
11 PM Mon 77 77 S 8 6338 5900 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Tue 74 74 S 8 5712 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 74 74 S 8 5712 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 72 72 SE 7 5033 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 71 71 SE 7 5033 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 71 71 SE 7 5033 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 70 70 SE 7 5033 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 70 70 SE 7 5033 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 70 70 SE 7 5033 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 78 79 SE 7 6752 6124 224 Blue 5
9 AM Tue 80 83 E 7 8162 7714 1814 Blue 9
10 AM Tue 84 88 E 8 13658 10810 4910 White 14
11 AM Tue 90 96 E 8 15334 15334 9434 White 22
12 Noon Tue 94 100 E 8 16147 16147 10247 White 26
1 PM Tue 96 102 NE 9 16551 16551 10651 White 28
2 PM Tue 97 102 NE 9 16551 16551 10651 White 28
3 PM Tue 95 98 N 10 15742 15742 9842 White 24
4 PM Tue 97 99 NW 12 15945 15945 10045 White 25
5 PM Tue 95 96 W 12 15334 15334 9434 White 22
6 PM Tue 91 91 W 13 14289 14289 8389 White 17
7 PM Tue 89 89 W 12 13868 11346 5446 White 15
8 PM Tue 86 86 W 12 11450 8149 2249 Blue 12
9 PM Tue 79 79 SW 10 6752 6124 224 Blue 5
10 PM Tue 78 78 SW 9 6545 5917 17 Blue 4
11 PM Tue 76 76 SW 8 6130 5900 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Wed 73 73 SW 8 5033 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 73 73 S 7 5033 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 72 72 S 6 5033 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 71 71 S 6 5033 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 70 70 S 6 5033 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 70 70 S 6 5033 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 69 69 S 6 5033 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 69 69 S 6 5033 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 77 78 SE 5 6545 5917 17 Blue 4
9 AM Wed 79 81 E 5 7871 6537 637 Blue 7
10 AM Wed 83 86 NE 5 11450 8149 2249 Blue 12
11 AM Wed 88 92 NE 5 14498 14498 8598 White 18
12 Noon Wed 92 97 N 5 15538 15538 9638 White 23
1 PM Wed 94 99 N 6 15945 15945 10045 White 25
2 PM Wed 95 99 N 8 15945 15945 10045 White 25
3 PM Wed 93 96 N 9 15334 15334 9434 White 22
4 PM Wed 95 97 N 12 15538 15538 9638 White 23
5 PM Wed 93 93 NW 13 14707 14707 8807 White 19
6 PM Wed 90 90 NW 15 14078 11865 5965 White 16
7 PM Wed 88 88 NW 14 13658 10810 4910 White 14
8 PM Wed 85 85 NW 14 10908 8004 2104 Blue 11
9 PM Wed 78 78 W 13 6545 5917 17 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 77 77 W 12 6338 5900 0 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 76 76 W 10 6130 5900 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Thu 73 73 SW 9 5033 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 73 73 SW 7 5033 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 71 71 SW 6 5033 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 70 70 S 6 5033 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 70 70 S 6 5033 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 70 70 S 6 5033 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 69 69 S 6 5033 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 69 69 SW 6 5033 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 75 76 SW 7 6130 5900 0 Blue 2
9 AM Thu 77 79 W 7 6752 6124 224 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 80 83 W 8 8162 7714 1814 Blue 9
11 AM Thu 84 88 NW 8 13658 10810 4910 White 14
12 Noon Thu 87 92 NW 9 14498 14498 8598 White 18
1 PM Thu 89 93 NW 10 14707 14707 8807 White 19
2 PM Thu 90 94 NW 10 14917 14917 9017 White 20
3 PM Thu 88 91 NW 12 14289 14289 8389 White 17
4 PM Thu 90 91 NW 13 14289 14289 8389 White 17
5 PM Thu 88 88 NW 13 13658 10810 4910 White 14
6 PM Thu 85 85 NW 14 10908 8004 2104 Blue 11
7 PM Thu 84 84 NW 13 10024 7859 1959 Blue 10
8 PM Thu 81 81 W 13 7871 6537 637 Blue 7
9 PM Thu 75 75 W 12 5921 5900 0 Blue 1
10 PM Thu 74 74 W 10 5712 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 73 73 SW 9 5033 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 71 71 SW 8 5033 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 70 70 SW 7 5033 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 69 69 S 7 5033 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 69 69 S 6 5033 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 68 68 S 6 5033 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 68 68 S 6 5033 5900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com