Detailed Predictions for: Mustang Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 5100
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 38 38 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 38 38 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 37 37 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 38 38 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 44 44 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 49 50 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 54 56 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 58 61 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 60 63 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 62 64 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 62 63 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 61 61 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 58 58 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 53 53 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 49 49 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 47 47 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 45 45 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 44 44 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 44 44 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 43 43 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 41 41 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 41 41 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 41 41 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 41 41 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 41 41 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 42 42 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 40 40 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 41 41 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 44 44 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 48 49 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 50 51 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 53 55 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 54 56 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 55 57 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 56 57 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 54 54 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 51 51 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 46 46 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 42 42 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 39 39 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 37 37 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 36 36 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 36 36 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 35 35 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 33 33 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 33 33 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 33 33 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 33 33 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 33 33 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 34 34 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 32 32 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 33 33 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 39 39 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 44 45 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 48 51 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 52 55 E 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 54 57 E 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 56 59 E 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 57 58 E 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 55 55 E 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 52 52 E 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 48 48 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 44 44 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 42 42 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 40 40 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 39 39 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 39 39 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 38 38 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 36 36 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 36 36 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 36 36 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 36 36 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 36 36 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 37 37 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 35 35 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 37 37 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 43 43 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 49 50 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 54 56 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 58 60 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 61 63 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 63 64 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 64 65 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 62 62 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 58 58 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 53 53 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 49 49 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 46 46 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 44 44 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 43 43 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 42 42 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 41 41 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 40 40 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 40 40 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 40 40 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 40 40 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 40 40 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 40 40 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 38 38 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 40 40 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 45 45 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 50 51 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 54 56 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 58 60 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 60 62 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 62 64 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 62 63 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 60 60 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 56 56 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 48 48 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 43 43 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 40 40 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 38 38 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 36 36 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 36 36 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 34 34 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 32 32 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 32 32 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 32 32 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 32 32 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 32 32 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 32 32 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 30 30 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 32 32 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 36 36 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 40 41 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 44 46 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 47 50 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 49 52 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 50 52 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 51 52 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 49 49 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 46 46 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 41 41 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 38 38 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 35 35 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 34 34 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 32 32 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 32 32 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 31 31 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 30 30 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 30 30 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 30 30 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 30 30 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com