Detailed Predictions for: Mustang Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 31.7036, -110.4928, 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 5100
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Fri 41 41 W 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 40 40 S 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 39 39 E 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 41 41 NW 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 38 38 N 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 38 38 NNE 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 37 37 N 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 39 39 NNE 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 41 41 NE 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 42 43 NNW 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 46 47 NE 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 49 52 ENE 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 52 57 NE 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 55 60 SE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 58 62 S 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 59 62 WNW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 60 61 WSW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 60 60 W 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 59 59 W 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 58 58 W 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 55 55 W 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 48 48 W 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 51 51 W 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 48 48 WSW 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 45 45 W 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 45 45 WSW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 44 44 WSW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 41 41 WSW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 42 42 WSW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 41 41 WSW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 39 39 WSW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 42 42 SW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 44 44 SW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 45 46 SSW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 49 52 SSW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 52 56 SSW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 55 55 SW 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 57 60 SW 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 59 61 WSW 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 61 61 WSW 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 60 60 WSW 13 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 59 59 WSW 13 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 58 58 WSW 15 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 55 55 WSW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 53 53 WSW 10 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 49 49 SW 9 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 49 49 SW 7 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 49 49 SW 7 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 46 46 SW 7 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 47 47 SW 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 46 46 SW 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 44 44 SW 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 43 43 WSW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 42 42 WSW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 40 40 WSW 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 43 43 SW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 44 44 SW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 45 46 WSW 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 49 52 SW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 52 56 SW 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 52 57 WSW 16 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 55 60 WSW 17 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 56 60 WSW 21 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 53 56 W 29 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 55 56 WSW 25 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 54 54 WSW 26 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 44 44 WNW 28 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 51 51 W 23 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 49 49 W 19 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 38 38 NW 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 44 44 W 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 40 40 WSW 13 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com