Detailed Predictions for: Oatman Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 1416
LZ Altitude (f): 550
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

26 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sun 62 62 S 13 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 62 62 S 16 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 64 66 S 17 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 66 70 S 18 0 1416 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 67 73 S 18 2524 2470 1054 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 70 78 S 17 2744 2610 1194 Blue 6
12 Noon Sun 72 80 S 16 3712 2698 1282 Blue 8
1 PM Sun 75 83 S 16 6224 3692 2276 Blue 11
2 PM Sun 77 84 SW 16 7409 3943 2527 Blue 12
3 PM Sun 79 84 SW 16 7409 3943 2527 Blue 12
4 PM Sun 80 83 SW 17 6224 3692 2276 Blue 11
5 PM Sun 80 82 SW 18 4216 3440 2024 Blue 10
6 PM Sun 81 81 SW 20 3965 2741 1325 Blue 9
7 PM Sun 80 80 SW 20 3712 2698 1282 Blue 8
8 PM Sun 78 78 SW 21 2744 2610 1194 Blue 6
9 PM Sun 75 75 SW 21 2612 2478 1062 Blue 3
10 PM Sun 73 73 SW 20 2524 2470 1054 Blue 1
11 PM Sun 71 71 W 18 0 1416 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 68 68 W 16 0 1416 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 66 66 W 15 0 1416 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 65 65 W 14 0 1416 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 63 63 W 13 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 62 62 W 13 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 61 61 W 14 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 61 61 W 14 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 60 60 W 14 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 61 62 W 13 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 62 65 W 13 0 1416 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 65 71 W 12 0 1416 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 67 75 W 12 2612 2478 1062 Blue 3
12 Noon Mon 68 77 W 12 2700 2566 1150 Blue 5
1 PM Mon 70 79 W 12 3458 2654 1238 Blue 7
2 PM Mon 72 80 W 12 3712 2698 1282 Blue 8
3 PM Mon 74 80 W 12 3712 2698 1282 Blue 8
4 PM Mon 75 79 W 12 3458 2654 1238 Blue 7
5 PM Mon 76 78 W 12 2744 2610 1194 Blue 6
6 PM Mon 76 76 W 12 2656 2522 1106 Blue 4
7 PM Mon 75 75 W 12 2612 2478 1062 Blue 3
8 PM Mon 74 74 W 12 2568 2470 1054 Blue 2
9 PM Mon 72 72 SW 10 2480 2470 1054 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 70 70 W 12 0 1416 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 69 69 W 12 0 1416 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 67 67 W 10 0 1416 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 66 66 W 10 0 1416 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 64 64 W 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 63 63 W 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 61 61 W 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 59 59 SW 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 59 59 SW 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 60 60 SW 3 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 63 65 SW 3 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 66 70 SW 3 0 1416 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 69 75 SW 3 2612 2478 1062 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 73 81 SW 5 3965 2741 1325 Blue 9
12 Noon Tue 76 85 SW 5 7989 4193 2777 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 79 88 SW 5 8511 7866 6450 Blue 16
2 PM Tue 81 89 SW 5 8806 8248 6832 Blue 17
3 PM Tue 82 88 SW 6 8511 7866 6450 Blue 16
4 PM Tue 83 87 SW 6 8348 7293 5877 Blue 15
5 PM Tue 83 85 W 6 7989 4193 2777 Blue 13
6 PM Tue 83 83 W 7 6224 3692 2276 Blue 11
7 PM Tue 82 82 W 8 4216 3440 2024 Blue 10
8 PM Tue 81 81 W 8 3965 2741 1325 Blue 9
9 PM Tue 79 79 W 9 3458 2654 1238 Blue 7
10 PM Tue 77 77 W 9 2700 2566 1150 Blue 5
11 PM Tue 76 76 W 10 2656 2522 1106 Blue 4
12 Midnight Wed 74 74 W 10 2568 2470 1054 Blue 2
1 AM Wed 72 72 W 10 2480 2470 1054 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 71 71 W 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 69 69 W 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 67 67 SW 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 65 65 SW 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 65 65 SW 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 67 67 SW 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 70 72 SW 7 2480 2470 1054 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 73 77 SW 7 2700 2566 1150 Blue 5
10 AM Wed 76 82 SW 7 4216 3440 2024 Blue 10
11 AM Wed 80 88 SW 7 8511 7866 6450 Blue 16
12 Noon Wed 83 92 SW 7 9610 8734 7318 Blue 20
1 PM Wed 86 95 SW 7 12373 9563 8147 Blue 23
2 PM Wed 88 96 SW 7 12728 9732 8316 Blue 24
3 PM Wed 90 96 SW 8 12728 9732 8316 Blue 24
4 PM Wed 91 95 SW 8 12373 9563 8147 Blue 23
5 PM Wed 91 93 SW 8 9779 8961 7545 Blue 21
6 PM Wed 90 90 SW 8 9004 8329 6913 Blue 18
7 PM Wed 88 88 SW 9 8511 7866 6450 Blue 16
8 PM Wed 86 86 SW 10 8267 5899 4483 Blue 14
9 PM Wed 84 84 SW 10 7409 3943 2527 Blue 12
10 PM Wed 82 82 SW 12 4216 3440 2024 Blue 10
11 PM Wed 80 80 SW 12 3712 2698 1282 Blue 8
12 Midnight Thu 78 78 SW 12 2744 2610 1194 Blue 6
1 AM Thu 76 76 SW 12 2656 2522 1106 Blue 4
2 AM Thu 74 74 SW 10 2568 2470 1054 Blue 2
3 AM Thu 72 72 SW 9 2480 2470 1054 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 70 70 SW 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 68 68 SW 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 68 68 SW 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 70 70 SW 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 73 75 SW 5 2612 2478 1062 Blue 3
9 AM Thu 76 80 SW 5 3712 2698 1282 Blue 8
10 AM Thu 79 85 SW 5 7989 4193 2777 Blue 13
11 AM Thu 83 91 SW 5 9315 8441 7025 Blue 19
12 Noon Thu 86 95 SW 5 12373 9563 8147 Blue 23
1 PM Thu 89 98 SW 6 13514 12240 10824 Blue 26
2 PM Thu 91 99 SW 6 15045 12593 11177 Blue 27
3 PM Thu 92 98 SW 6 13514 12240 10824 Blue 26
4 PM Thu 93 97 SW 7 13079 11206 9790 Blue 25
5 PM Thu 93 95 SW 7 12373 9563 8147 Blue 23
6 PM Thu 92 92 SW 8 9610 8734 7318 Blue 20
7 PM Thu 91 91 SW 9 9315 8441 7025 Blue 19
8 PM Thu 88 88 SW 9 8511 7866 6450 Blue 16
9 PM Thu 86 86 SW 10 8267 5899 4483 Blue 14
10 PM Thu 84 84 SW 10 7409 3943 2527 Blue 12
11 PM Thu 81 81 SW 12 3965 2741 1325 Blue 9
12 Midnight Fri 79 79 SW 12 3458 2654 1238 Blue 7
1 AM Fri 77 77 SW 10 2700 2566 1150 Blue 5
2 AM Fri 75 75 SW 9 2612 2478 1062 Blue 3
3 AM Fri 73 73 SW 8 2524 2470 1054 Blue 1
4 AM Fri 71 71 SW 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 69 69 S 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 69 69 S 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 71 71 S 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 74 76 S 6 2656 2522 1106 Blue 4
9 AM Fri 77 81 S 6 3965 2741 1325 Blue 9
10 AM Fri 80 86 S 6 8267 5899 4483 Blue 14
11 AM Fri 83 91 S 7 9315 8441 7025 Blue 19
12 Noon Fri 86 95 SW 8 12373 9563 8147 Blue 23
1 PM Fri 89 98 SW 8 13514 12240 10824 Blue 26
2 PM Fri 91 99 SW 9 15045 12593 11177 Blue 27
3 PM Fri 93 99 SW 10 15045 12593 11177 Blue 27
4 PM Fri 94 98 SW 10 13514 12240 10824 Blue 26
5 PM Fri 94 96 SW 12 12728 9732 8316 Blue 24
6 PM Fri 93 93 SW 12 9779 8961 7545 Blue 21
7 PM Fri 91 91 SW 13 9315 8441 7025 Blue 19
8 PM Fri 89 89 SW 13 8806 8248 6832 Blue 17
9 PM Fri 86 86 SW 12 8267 5899 4483 Blue 14
10 PM Fri 83 83 SW 12 6224 3692 2276 Blue 11
11 PM Fri 81 81 SW 12 3965 2741 1325 Blue 9
12 Midnight Sat 78 78 SW 10 2744 2610 1194 Blue 6
1 AM Sat 76 76 S 9 2656 2522 1106 Blue 4
2 AM Sat 74 74 S 9 2568 2470 1054 Blue 2
3 AM Sat 72 72 S 8 2480 2470 1054 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 70 70 S 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 68 68 S 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com