Detailed Predictions for: Oatman Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 1416
LZ Altitude (f): 550
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

26 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 60 60 NE 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 59 59 NE 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 59 59 NE 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 63 64 NE 3 2506 2470 1054 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 68 69 NE 3 2855 2653 1237 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 72 74 NE 3 3000 2912 1496 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 77 81 NE 2 3770 3297 1881 Blue 17
1 PM Tue 80 82 NE 3 3954 3451 2035 Blue 18
2 PM Tue 83 84 SW 3 4543 3757 2341 Blue 20
3 PM Tue 85 86 SW 5 4998 4466 3050 Blue 22
4 PM Tue 85 86 W 6 4998 4466 3050 Blue 22
5 PM Tue 86 86 SW 6 4998 4466 3050 Blue 22
6 PM Tue 85 85 SW 6 4696 3910 2494 Blue 21
7 PM Tue 83 83 SW 6 4474 3604 2188 Blue 19
8 PM Tue 79 79 SW 6 3462 3056 1640 Blue 15
9 PM Tue 78 78 SW 6 3308 3027 1611 Blue 14
10 PM Tue 76 76 W 5 3057 2970 1554 Blue 12
11 PM Tue 74 74 SW 5 3000 2912 1496 Blue 10
12 Midnight Wed 73 73 SW 5 2971 2884 1468 Blue 9
1 AM Wed 71 71 SW 6 2914 2785 1369 Blue 7
2 AM Wed 69 69 SW 6 2855 2653 1237 Blue 5
3 AM Wed 67 67 SW 6 2722 2502 1086 Blue 3
4 AM Wed 65 65 SE 5 2590 2470 1054 Blue 1
5 AM Wed 64 64 SE 5 2506 2470 1054 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 63 63 SE 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 63 63 SE 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 63 63 E 3 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 66 68 E 3 2789 2587 1171 Blue 4
10 AM Wed 70 72 SW 3 2943 2851 1435 Blue 8
11 AM Wed 73 74 SW 5 3000 2912 1496 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 77 77 SW 5 3153 2998 1582 Blue 13
1 PM Wed 80 80 SW 5 3616 3144 1728 Blue 16
2 PM Wed 81 81 SW 6 3770 3297 1881 Blue 17
3 PM Wed 82 82 SW 7 3954 3451 2035 Blue 18
4 PM Wed 83 83 SW 8 4474 3604 2188 Blue 19
5 PM Wed 83 83 SW 8 4474 3604 2188 Blue 19
6 PM Wed 82 82 SW 8 3954 3451 2035 Blue 18
7 PM Wed 80 80 W 8 3616 3144 1728 Blue 16
8 PM Wed 78 78 W 7 3308 3027 1611 Blue 14
9 PM Wed 76 76 W 7 3057 2970 1554 Blue 12
10 PM Wed 74 74 W 7 3000 2912 1496 Blue 10
11 PM Wed 73 73 W 7 2971 2884 1468 Blue 9
12 Midnight Thu 71 71 W 7 2914 2785 1369 Blue 7
1 AM Thu 68 68 W 7 2789 2587 1171 Blue 4
2 AM Thu 66 66 W 6 2656 2470 1054 Blue 2
3 AM Thu 63 63 W 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 61 61 W 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 60 60 SW 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 59 59 SW 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 59 59 SW 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 60 61 W 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 62 64 W 5 2506 2470 1054 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 66 70 W 5 2885 2719 1303 Blue 6
11 AM Thu 70 76 W 6 3057 2970 1554 Blue 12
12 Noon Thu 74 81 W 7 3770 3297 1881 Blue 17
1 PM Thu 77 83 W 8 4474 3604 2188 Blue 19
2 PM Thu 79 84 W 9 4543 3757 2341 Blue 20
3 PM Thu 80 84 W 10 4543 3757 2341 Blue 20
4 PM Thu 81 83 W 12 4474 3604 2188 Blue 19
5 PM Thu 82 83 W 12 4474 3604 2188 Blue 19
6 PM Thu 81 81 W 12 3770 3297 1881 Blue 17
7 PM Thu 79 79 W 12 3462 3056 1640 Blue 15
8 PM Thu 77 77 W 10 3153 2998 1582 Blue 13
9 PM Thu 74 74 W 10 3000 2912 1496 Blue 10
10 PM Thu 72 72 W 10 2943 2851 1435 Blue 8
11 PM Thu 69 69 W 9 2855 2653 1237 Blue 5
12 Midnight Fri 67 67 W 9 2722 2502 1086 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 65 65 W 8 2590 2470 1054 Blue 1
2 AM Fri 63 63 W 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 61 61 W 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 59 59 W 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 58 58 NW 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 57 57 NW 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 57 57 NW 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 59 60 NW 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 61 63 NW 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 64 68 NW 5 2789 2587 1171 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 68 74 NW 5 3000 2912 1496 Blue 10
12 Noon Fri 72 78 NW 6 3308 3027 1611 Blue 14
1 PM Fri 75 82 NW 7 3954 3451 2035 Blue 18
2 PM Fri 78 84 NW 7 4543 3757 2341 Blue 20
3 PM Fri 80 84 NW 8 4543 3757 2341 Blue 20
4 PM Fri 81 83 NW 9 4474 3604 2188 Blue 19
5 PM Fri 82 83 NW 9 4474 3604 2188 Blue 19
6 PM Fri 81 81 NW 10 3770 3297 1881 Blue 17
7 PM Fri 79 79 NW 10 3462 3056 1640 Blue 15
8 PM Fri 76 76 NW 10 3057 2970 1554 Blue 12
9 PM Fri 73 73 NW 10 2971 2884 1468 Blue 9
10 PM Fri 71 71 NW 10 2914 2785 1369 Blue 7
11 PM Fri 70 70 NW 9 2885 2719 1303 Blue 6
12 Midnight Sat 68 68 NW 9 2789 2587 1171 Blue 4
1 AM Sat 66 66 NW 9 2656 2470 1054 Blue 2
2 AM Sat 64 64 NW 8 2506 2470 1054 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 62 62 NW 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 60 60 NW 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 59 59 NW 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 59 59 NW 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 59 59 NW 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 60 60 N 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 62 64 N 7 2506 2470 1054 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 66 69 N 8 2855 2653 1237 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 70 75 N 8 3029 2941 1525 Blue 11
12 Noon Sat 74 80 N 9 3616 3144 1728 Blue 16
1 PM Sat 77 83 N 9 4474 3604 2188 Blue 19
2 PM Sat 79 84 N 10 4543 3757 2341 Blue 20
3 PM Sat 80 84 N 10 4543 3757 2341 Blue 20
4 PM Sat 81 83 N 10 4474 3604 2188 Blue 19
5 PM Sat 81 82 NW 12 3954 3451 2035 Blue 18
6 PM Sat 81 81 NW 12 3770 3297 1881 Blue 17
7 PM Sat 79 79 NW 12 3462 3056 1640 Blue 15
8 PM Sat 77 77 NW 10 3153 2998 1582 Blue 13
9 PM Sat 74 74 NW 10 3000 2912 1496 Blue 10
10 PM Sat 72 72 NW 10 2943 2851 1435 Blue 8
11 PM Sat 71 71 NW 10 2914 2785 1369 Blue 7
12 Midnight Sun 69 69 N 10 2855 2653 1237 Blue 5
1 AM Sun 67 67 N 10 2722 2502 1086 Blue 3
2 AM Sun 65 65 N 10 2590 2470 1054 Blue 1
3 AM Sun 63 63 N 10 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 61 61 N 10 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 60 60 N 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 59 59 N 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 59 59 N 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 60 61 N 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 62 64 N 9 2506 2470 1054 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 66 70 N 10 2885 2719 1303 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 70 76 NE 10 3057 2970 1554 Blue 12
12 Noon Sun 74 80 NE 12 3616 3144 1728 Blue 16
1 PM Sun 77 83 NE 12 4474 3604 2188 Blue 19
2 PM Sun 79 85 N 12 4696 3910 2494 Blue 21
3 PM Sun 80 84 N 12 4543 3757 2341 Blue 20
4 PM Sun 81 83 N 12 4474 3604 2188 Blue 19
5 PM Sun 82 83 N 10 4474 3604 2188 Blue 19
6 PM Sun 81 81 N 10 3770 3297 1881 Blue 17
7 PM Sun 79 79 N 10 3462 3056 1640 Blue 15
8 PM Sun 77 77 N 9 3153 2998 1582 Blue 13
9 PM Sun 74 74 N 9 3000 2912 1496 Blue 10
10 PM Sun 72 72 N 9 2943 2851 1435 Blue 8
11 PM Sun 70 70 N 9 2885 2719 1303 Blue 6
12 Midnight Mon 68 68 N 9 2789 2587 1171 Blue 4
1 AM Mon 66 66 N 9 2656 2470 1054 Blue 2
2 AM Mon 65 65 N 8 2590 2470 1054 Blue 1
3 AM Mon 63 63 N 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 61 61 N 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 60 60 NE 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com