Detailed Predictions for: Oatman Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 1416
LZ Altitude (f): 550
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

21 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sat 86 86 S 7 1257 1416 0 White 0
7 AM Sat 85 85 SW 6 1257 1416 0 White 0
8 AM Sat 86 86 W 6 1257 1416 0 White 0
9 AM Sat 88 89 W 6 1257 1416 0 White 0
10 AM Sat 90 91 W 6 1257 1416 0 White 0
11 AM Sat 92 94 SW 6 1257 1416 0 White 0
12 Noon Sat 94 97 SW 6 1257 1416 0 White 0
1 PM Sat 97 100 SW 6 1257 1416 0 White 0
2 PM Sat 98 101 SW 7 1257 1416 0 White 0
3 PM Sat 99 101 SW 8 1257 1416 0 White 0
4 PM Sat 102 104 SW 9 1257 1416 0 White 0
5 PM Sat 102 103 SW 9 1257 1416 0 White 0
6 PM Sat 101 101 SW 10 1257 1416 0 White 0
7 PM Sat 100 100 SW 10 1257 1416 0 White 0
8 PM Sat 99 99 W 9 1257 1416 0 White 0
9 PM Sat 97 97 W 9 1257 1416 0 White 0
10 PM Sat 96 96 SW 9 1257 1416 0 White 0
11 PM Sat 93 93 SW 9 1257 1416 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 92 92 SW 9 1257 1416 0 White 0
1 AM Sun 90 90 SW 9 1257 1416 0 White 0
2 AM Sun 90 90 SW 8 1257 1416 0 White 0
3 AM Sun 89 89 SW 7 1257 1416 0 White 0
4 AM Sun 89 89 SW 6 1257 1416 0 White 0
5 AM Sun 89 89 SW 6 1257 1416 0 White 0
6 AM Sun 87 87 SW 7 1257 1416 0 White 0
7 AM Sun 86 86 SW 6 1257 1416 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 88 89 SW 6 1257 1416 0 White 0
9 AM Sun 90 93 SW 6 1257 1416 0 White 0
10 AM Sun 93 97 SW 5 1257 1416 0 White 0
11 AM Sun 96 102 SW 5 1257 1416 0 White 0
12 Noon Sun 98 105 SW 5 1257 1416 0 White 0
1 PM Sun 101 108 SW 6 1257 1416 0 White 0
2 PM Sun 103 109 SW 7 1257 1416 0 White 0
3 PM Sun 103 108 W 8 1257 1416 0 White 0
4 PM Sun 104 107 W 8 1257 1416 0 White 0
5 PM Sun 105 106 W 9 1257 1416 0 White 0
6 PM Sun 106 106 W 9 1257 1416 0 White 0
7 PM Sun 106 106 W 9 1257 1416 0 White 0
8 PM Sun 104 104 W 9 1257 1416 0 White 0
9 PM Sun 102 102 W 9 1257 1416 0 White 0
10 PM Sun 100 100 W 10 1257 1416 0 White 0
11 PM Sun 97 97 W 10 1257 1416 0 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 95 95 W 10 1257 1416 0 White 0
1 AM Mon 94 94 W 9 1257 1416 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 93 93 W 8 1257 1416 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 92 92 W 7 1257 1416 0 White 0
4 AM Mon 91 91 W 6 1257 1416 0 White 0
5 AM Mon 90 90 W 6 1257 1416 0 White 0
6 AM Mon 89 89 W 5 1257 1416 0 White 0
7 AM Mon 89 89 W 5 1257 1416 0 White 0
8 AM Mon 90 91 W 5 1257 1416 0 White 0
9 AM Mon 92 95 W 5 1257 1416 0 White 0
10 AM Mon 95 100 SW 5 1257 1416 0 White 0
11 AM Mon 99 105 SW 5 1257 1416 0 White 0
12 Noon Mon 103 110 SW 6 1257 1416 0 White 0
1 PM Mon 105 112 SW 6 1257 1416 0 White 0
2 PM Mon 107 114 SW 7 1257 1416 0 White 0
3 PM Mon 109 114 SW 8 1257 1416 0 White 0
4 PM Mon 111 115 SW 8 1257 1416 0 White 0
5 PM Mon 112 114 W 9 1257 1416 0 White 0
6 PM Mon 112 112 W 10 1257 1416 0 White 0
7 PM Mon 111 111 W 10 1257 1416 0 White 0
8 PM Mon 108 108 W 12 1257 1416 0 White 0
9 PM Mon 106 106 W 13 1257 1416 0 White 0
10 PM Mon 103 103 W 13 1257 1416 0 White 0
11 PM Mon 100 100 W 13 1257 1416 0 White 0
12 Midnight Tue 98 98 W 13 1257 1416 0 White 0
1 AM Tue 97 97 W 12 1257 1416 0 White 0
2 AM Tue 96 96 W 10 1257 1416 0 White 0
3 AM Tue 94 94 W 9 1257 1416 0 White 0
4 AM Tue 92 92 W 8 1257 1416 0 White 0
5 AM Tue 91 91 W 6 1257 1416 0 White 0
6 AM Tue 90 90 W 5 1257 1416 0 White 0
7 AM Tue 90 90 W 5 1257 1416 0 White 0
8 AM Tue 92 93 W 5 1257 1416 0 White 0
9 AM Tue 95 98 W 5 1257 1416 0 White 0
10 AM Tue 98 103 SW 5 1257 1416 0 White 0
11 AM Tue 102 109 SW 5 1257 1416 0 White 0
12 Noon Tue 106 114 SW 5 1257 1416 0 White 0
1 PM Tue 110 118 SW 6 1257 1416 0 White 0
2 PM Tue 112 119 SW 7 1257 1416 0 White 0
3 PM Tue 115 120 SW 8 1257 1416 0 White 0
4 PM Tue 116 120 SW 9 1257 1416 0 White 0
5 PM Tue 117 119 W 9 1257 1416 0 White 0
6 PM Tue 117 117 W 10 1257 1416 0 White 0
7 PM Tue 115 115 W 12 1257 1416 0 White 0
8 PM Tue 113 113 W 12 1257 1416 0 White 0
9 PM Tue 110 110 W 12 1257 1416 0 White 0
10 PM Tue 107 107 W 12 1257 1416 0 White 0
11 PM Tue 105 105 W 12 1257 1416 0 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 102 102 W 12 1257 1416 0 White 0
1 AM Wed 100 100 W 12 1257 1416 0 White 0
2 AM Wed 98 98 SW 10 1257 1416 0 White 0
3 AM Wed 97 97 SW 10 1257 1416 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 95 95 SW 9 1257 1416 0 White 0
5 AM Wed 93 93 S 9 1257 1416 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 92 92 S 8 1257 1416 0 White 0
7 AM Wed 92 92 S 8 1257 1416 0 White 0
8 AM Wed 93 94 S 8 1257 1416 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 95 97 S 8 1257 1416 0 White 0
10 AM Wed 99 102 SW 9 1257 1416 0 White 0
11 AM Wed 103 108 SW 9 1257 1416 0 White 0
12 Noon Wed 106 111 SW 9 1257 1416 0 White 0
1 PM Wed 109 115 SW 10 1257 1416 0 White 0
2 PM Wed 111 116 SW 10 1257 1416 0 White 0
3 PM Wed 113 117 SW 12 1257 1416 0 White 0
4 PM Wed 114 117 SW 13 1257 1416 0 White 0
5 PM Wed 115 116 SW 13 1257 1416 0 White 0
6 PM Wed 115 115 SW 14 1257 1416 0 White 0
7 PM Wed 113 113 SW 14 1257 1416 0 White 0
8 PM Wed 110 110 SW 14 1257 1416 0 White 0
9 PM Wed 107 107 SW 14 1257 1416 0 White 0
10 PM Wed 105 105 SW 14 1257 1416 0 White 0
11 PM Wed 102 102 SW 14 1257 1416 0 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 100 100 SW 14 1257 1416 0 White 0
1 AM Thu 97 97 SW 14 1257 1416 0 White 0
2 AM Thu 95 95 SW 14 1257 1416 0 White 0
3 AM Thu 93 93 S 14 1257 1416 0 White 0
4 AM Thu 92 92 S 13 1257 1416 0 White 0
5 AM Thu 91 91 S 13 1257 1416 0 White 0
6 AM Thu 90 90 S 13 1257 1416 0 White 0
7 AM Thu 90 90 S 13 1257 1416 0 White 0
8 AM Thu 90 91 S 13 1257 1416 0 White 0
9 AM Thu 91 93 S 14 1257 1416 0 White 0
10 AM Thu 93 96 S 14 1257 1416 0 White 0
11 AM Thu 96 101 S 14 1257 1416 0 White 0
12 Noon Thu 98 103 S 14 1257 1416 0 White 0
1 PM Thu 101 106 S 14 1257 1416 0 White 0
2 PM Thu 103 108 S 14 1257 1416 0 White 0
3 PM Thu 104 108 S 14 1257 1416 0 White 0
4 PM Thu 105 107 SW 13 1257 1416 0 White 0
5 PM Thu 106 107 SW 13 1257 1416 0 White 0
6 PM Thu 105 105 SW 13 1257 1416 0 White 0
7 PM Thu 104 104 SW 14 1257 1416 0 White 0
8 PM Thu 102 102 SW 14 1257 1416 0 White 0
9 PM Thu 100 100 S 14 1257 1416 0 White 0
10 PM Thu 98 98 S 15 1257 1416 0 White 0
11 PM Thu 96 96 S 15 1257 1416 0 White 0
12 Midnight Fri 94 94 S 15 1257 1416 0 White 0
1 AM Fri 93 93 S 14 1257 1416 0 White 0
2 AM Fri 92 92 S 14 1257 1416 0 White 0
3 AM Fri 91 91 S 13 1257 1416 0 White 0
4 AM Fri 89 89 S 12 1257 1416 0 White 0
5 AM Fri 88 88 S 10 1257 1416 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com