Detailed Predictions for: Oatman Mt
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.05140323308282, -113.1360567714253, 1416
LZ Altitude (f): 550
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Fri 56 56 NW 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 54 54 WNW 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 53 53 W 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 50 50 SSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 51 51 W 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 50 50 WNW 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 46 46 W 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 50 50 NNW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 51 51 NNW 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 50 50 NNW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 55 56 SW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 60 61 ESE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 62 67 N 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 66 67 N 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 68 71 N 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 69 72 NW 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 68 69 ENE 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 66 66 SSE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 62 62 WSW 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 64 64 SW 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 63 63 SSW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 54 54 SSW 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 61 61 SSW 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 59 59 SSW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 58 58 SSW 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 57 57 S 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 55 55 S 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 54 54 S 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 53 53 S 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 53 53 SSE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 51 51 SSE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 52 52 SSE 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 53 53 SSE 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 53 54 S 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 58 61 S 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 63 67 S 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 66 71 SW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 69 74 SW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 71 75 SW 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 72 75 W 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 71 72 WSW 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 68 68 WSW 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 65 65 W 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 66 66 WSW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 65 65 WSW 8 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 64 64 WNW 8 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 63 63 WNW 8 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 62 62 NW 8 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 61 61 NNW 13 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 59 59 NNW 7 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 57 57 NW 7 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 57 57 NNW 11 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 55 55 NW 8 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 54 54 NW 9 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 53 53 NNW 12 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 53 53 NNW 11 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 53 53 NW 11 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 53 54 NW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 56 58 NW 15 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 58 62 NW 17 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 60 65 NNW 22 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 61 66 NW 22 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 63 67 NW 24 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 65 68 NNW 26 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 62 63 NW 28 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 60 60 NW 30 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 58 58 N 21 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 55 55 NNW 27 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 52 52 NNW 22 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 49 49 N 17 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 51 51 N 16 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 52 52 N 15 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com