Detailed Predictions for: Oatman Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 1416
LZ Altitude (f): 550
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

12Z 23 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sat 63 63 W 3 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 62 62 W 3 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 62 62 SW 3 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 64 66 SW 3 0 1416 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 67 71 SW 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 70 75 SW 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 74 80 SW 6 5421 3476 2060 Blue 3
1 PM Sat 78 84 SW 6 7886 6314 4898 Blue 7
2 PM Sat 79 84 SW 7 7886 6314 4898 Blue 7
3 PM Sat 81 85 SW 8 8797 6889 5473 Blue 8
4 PM Sat 83 85 W 9 8797 6889 5473 Blue 8
5 PM Sat 83 84 W 10 7886 6314 4898 Blue 7
6 PM Sat 83 83 W 10 7376 5293 3877 Blue 6
7 PM Sat 81 81 W 10 6516 4022 2606 Blue 4
8 PM Sat 77 77 W 10 3515 2612 1196 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 75 75 W 10 0 1416 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 73 73 W 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 71 71 NW 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 70 70 NW 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 68 68 NW 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 67 67 NW 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 67 67 N 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 66 66 N 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 66 66 N 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 66 66 N 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 65 65 N 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 65 65 N 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 67 69 N 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 70 74 N 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 73 78 N 5 4069 2612 1196 Blue 1
12 Noon Sun 76 82 N 6 6959 4551 3135 Blue 5
1 PM Sun 80 86 N 7 9298 7295 5879 Blue 9
2 PM Sun 81 86 N 8 9298 7295 5879 Blue 9
3 PM Sun 83 87 NW 10 9672 7744 6328 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 85 87 NW 12 9672 7744 6328 Blue 10
5 PM Sun 85 86 NW 13 9298 7295 5879 Blue 9
6 PM Sun 85 85 NW 14 8797 6889 5473 Blue 8
7 PM Sun 83 83 NW 14 7376 5293 3877 Blue 6
8 PM Sun 79 79 NW 13 4606 2612 1196 Blue 2
9 PM Sun 76 76 NW 13 0 1416 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 74 74 NW 12 0 1416 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 72 72 NW 12 0 1416 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 70 70 NW 10 0 1416 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 68 68 NW 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 68 68 NW 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 68 68 NW 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 67 67 N 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 67 67 N 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 66 66 N 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 65 65 N 3 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 65 65 N 3 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 67 69 N 3 0 1416 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 71 75 NE 3 0 1416 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 74 79 NE 3 4606 2612 1196 Blue 2
12 Noon Mon 78 84 NE 3 7886 6314 4898 Blue 7
1 PM Mon 82 88 NE 3 10072 8577 7161 Blue 11
2 PM Mon 84 89 N 3 10271 9200 7784 Blue 12
3 PM Mon 86 90 N 3 10470 9571 8155 Blue 13
4 PM Mon 87 89 N 3 10271 9200 7784 Blue 12
5 PM Mon 88 88 NW 3 10072 8577 7161 Blue 11
6 PM Mon 88 88 NW 5 10072 8577 7161 Blue 11
7 PM Mon 86 86 NW 5 9298 7295 5879 Blue 9
8 PM Mon 82 82 NW 6 6959 4551 3135 Blue 5
9 PM Mon 79 79 NW 7 4606 2612 1196 Blue 2
10 PM Mon 77 77 NW 8 3515 2612 1196 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 75 75 N 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 73 73 N 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 71 71 N 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 71 71 N 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 71 71 N 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 70 70 N 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 70 70 NE 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 69 69 NE 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 68 68 NE 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 68 68 N 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 70 72 N 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 74 78 N 6 4069 2612 1196 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 77 82 N 6 6959 4551 3135 Blue 5
12 Noon Tue 81 87 NW 6 9672 7744 6328 Blue 10
1 PM Tue 85 91 NW 6 10841 9937 8521 Blue 14
2 PM Tue 87 92 NW 6 10989 10213 8797 Blue 15
3 PM Tue 89 93 NW 6 11137 10410 8994 Blue 16
4 PM Tue 90 92 W 6 10989 10213 8797 Blue 15
5 PM Tue 91 91 W 6 10841 9937 8521 Blue 14
6 PM Tue 91 91 W 6 10841 9937 8521 Blue 14
7 PM Tue 88 88 W 6 10072 8577 7161 Blue 11
8 PM Tue 84 84 W 5 7886 6314 4898 Blue 7
9 PM Tue 81 81 NW 5 6516 4022 2606 Blue 4
10 PM Tue 78 78 NW 5 4069 2612 1196 Blue 1
11 PM Tue 76 76 NW 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 75 75 N 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 73 73 N 3 0 1416 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 72 72 N 3 0 1416 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 72 72 N 3 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 71 71 NE 3 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 71 71 NE 3 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 70 70 NE 3 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 69 69 NE 3 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 69 69 NE 2 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 71 73 NE 2 0 1416 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 75 79 N 2 4606 2612 1196 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 78 83 N 2 7376 5293 3877 Blue 6
12 Noon Wed 82 88 N 2 10072 8577 7161 Blue 11
1 PM Wed 86 92 N 3 10989 10213 8797 Blue 15
2 PM Wed 88 93 N 3 11137 10410 8994 Blue 16
3 PM Wed 90 94 N 3 11285 10747 9331 Blue 17
4 PM Wed 91 93 NW 3 11137 10410 8994 Blue 16
5 PM Wed 92 92 NW 3 10989 10213 8797 Blue 15
6 PM Wed 92 92 NW 5 10989 10213 8797 Blue 15
7 PM Wed 90 90 NW 5 10470 9571 8155 Blue 13
8 PM Wed 86 86 NW 6 9298 7295 5879 Blue 9
9 PM Wed 83 83 N 7 7376 5293 3877 Blue 6
10 PM Wed 81 81 N 8 6516 4022 2606 Blue 4
11 PM Wed 79 79 N 8 4606 2612 1196 Blue 2
12 Midnight Thu 78 78 N 9 4069 2612 1196 Blue 1
1 AM Thu 76 76 N 10 0 1416 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 75 75 N 12 0 1416 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 75 75 NE 12 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 75 75 NE 13 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 75 75 NE 13 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 74 74 NE 14 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 73 73 NE 13 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 73 73 NE 13 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 75 77 NE 13 3515 2612 1196 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 78 81 NE 12 6516 4022 2606 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 81 86 N 10 9298 7295 5879 Blue 9
12 Noon Thu 84 90 N 10 10470 9571 8155 Blue 13
1 PM Thu 89 95 N 9 11644 10942 9526 Blue 18
2 PM Thu 90 95 N 8 11644 10942 9526 Blue 18
3 PM Thu 92 95 N 7 11644 10942 9526 Blue 18
4 PM Thu 94 96 N 7 12008 11089 9673 Blue 19
5 PM Thu 94 94 N 6 11285 10747 9331 Blue 17
6 PM Thu 94 94 N 6 11285 10747 9331 Blue 17
7 PM Thu 92 92 N 6 10989 10213 8797 Blue 15
8 PM Thu 88 88 N 6 10072 8577 7161 Blue 11
9 PM Thu 85 85 N 7 8797 6889 5473 Blue 8
10 PM Thu 83 83 N 7 7376 5293 3877 Blue 6
11 PM Thu 81 81 N 8 6516 4022 2606 Blue 4
12 Midnight Fri 80 80 N 8 5421 3476 2060 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 78 78 N 9 4069 2612 1196 Blue 1
2 AM Fri 77 77 NE 9 3515 2612 1196 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 77 77 NE 10 3515 2612 1196 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 77 77 NE 10 3515 2612 1196 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 77 77 NE 12 3515 2612 1196 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com