Detailed Predictions for: Oatman Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 1416
LZ Altitude (f): 550
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 59 59 NE 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 57 57 NE 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 58 58 NE 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 59 59 NE 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 63 64 NE 9 2955 2470 1054 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 67 69 NE 8 4003 3114 1698 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 71 74 NE 7 4257 4100 2684 Blue 12
12 Noon Wed 74 77 NE 6 4666 4252 2836 Blue 15
1 PM Wed 77 80 NE 5 5214 4643 3227 Blue 17
2 PM Wed 78 81 NE 2 5315 4844 3428 Blue 18
3 PM Wed 79 81 NW 2 5315 4844 3428 Blue 18
4 PM Wed 80 80 W 3 5214 4643 3227 Blue 17
5 PM Wed 78 78 W 3 4868 4303 2887 Blue 16
6 PM Wed 75 75 SW 3 4308 4151 2735 Blue 13
7 PM Wed 73 73 SW 3 4206 4049 2633 Blue 11
8 PM Wed 72 72 SW 2 4155 3998 2582 Blue 10
9 PM Wed 70 70 W 2 4054 3196 1780 Blue 8
10 PM Wed 68 68 NE 2 3395 3032 1616 Blue 6
11 PM Wed 65 65 E 3 3037 2470 1054 Blue 3
12 Midnight Thu 64 64 E 5 2955 2470 1054 Blue 2
1 AM Thu 61 61 NE 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 60 60 NE 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 59 59 NE 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 58 NE 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 56 56 NE 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 56 56 NE 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 56 56 NE 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 58 58 NE 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 62 62 NE 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 67 68 NE 6 3395 3032 1616 Blue 6
11 AM Thu 71 74 NE 5 4257 4100 2684 Blue 12
12 Noon Thu 75 77 NE 3 4666 4252 2836 Blue 15
1 PM Thu 78 80 NE 2 5214 4643 3227 Blue 17
2 PM Thu 79 81 NE 2 5315 4844 3428 Blue 18
3 PM Thu 80 81 NE 2 5315 4844 3428 Blue 18
4 PM Thu 80 80 N 2 5214 4643 3227 Blue 17
5 PM Thu 79 79 N 2 5114 4442 3026 Blue 17
6 PM Thu 77 77 N 2 4666 4252 2836 Blue 15
7 PM Thu 75 75 NE 3 4308 4151 2735 Blue 13
8 PM Thu 72 72 NE 3 4155 3998 2582 Blue 10
9 PM Thu 70 70 NE 5 4054 3196 1780 Blue 8
10 PM Thu 68 68 NE 5 3395 3032 1616 Blue 6
11 PM Thu 66 66 NE 6 3119 2819 1403 Blue 4
12 Midnight Fri 64 64 NE 6 2955 2470 1054 Blue 2
1 AM Fri 62 62 NE 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 61 61 NE 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 60 60 NE 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 59 59 NE 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 59 59 NE 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 59 59 NE 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 59 59 NE 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 61 61 NE 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 64 64 NE 9 2955 2470 1054 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 69 69 NE 10 4003 3114 1698 Blue 7
11 AM Fri 73 73 NE 10 4206 4049 2633 Blue 11
12 Noon Fri 76 77 NE 9 4666 4252 2836 Blue 15
1 PM Fri 79 80 NE 8 5214 4643 3227 Blue 17
2 PM Fri 80 81 NE 7 5315 4844 3428 Blue 18
3 PM Fri 81 81 NE 6 5315 4844 3428 Blue 18
4 PM Fri 80 80 NE 6 5214 4643 3227 Blue 17
5 PM Fri 79 79 NE 6 5114 4442 3026 Blue 17
6 PM Fri 77 77 NE 6 4666 4252 2836 Blue 15
7 PM Fri 75 75 NE 6 4308 4151 2735 Blue 13
8 PM Fri 72 72 NE 6 4155 3998 2582 Blue 10
9 PM Fri 70 70 NE 6 4054 3196 1780 Blue 8
10 PM Fri 68 68 N 6 3395 3032 1616 Blue 6
11 PM Fri 66 66 N 6 3119 2819 1403 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sat 64 64 N 6 2955 2470 1054 Blue 2
1 AM Sat 63 63 NE 6 2837 2470 1054 Blue 1
2 AM Sat 62 62 NE 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 61 61 NE 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 60 60 NE 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 59 59 NE 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 58 58 NE 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 59 59 NE 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 60 60 NE 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 64 64 NE 6 2955 2470 1054 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 68 69 NE 6 4003 3114 1698 Blue 7
11 AM Sat 73 75 NE 6 4308 4151 2735 Blue 13
12 Noon Sat 77 80 NE 6 5214 4643 3227 Blue 17
1 PM Sat 79 82 NE 5 5481 5089 3673 Blue 19
2 PM Sat 81 84 NE 5 5980 5301 3885 Blue 21
3 PM Sat 82 84 N 5 5980 5301 3885 Blue 21
4 PM Sat 81 81 NW 5 5315 4844 3428 Blue 18
5 PM Sat 80 80 NW 5 5214 4643 3227 Blue 17
6 PM Sat 78 78 NW 5 4868 4303 2887 Blue 16
7 PM Sat 76 76 N 5 4463 4201 2785 Blue 14
8 PM Sat 73 73 N 5 4206 4049 2633 Blue 11
9 PM Sat 71 71 N 5 4105 3318 1902 Blue 9
10 PM Sat 70 70 NW 5 4054 3196 1780 Blue 8
11 PM Sat 68 68 NW 5 3395 3032 1616 Blue 6
12 Midnight Sun 66 66 NW 5 3119 2819 1403 Blue 4
1 AM Sun 64 64 N 6 2955 2470 1054 Blue 2
2 AM Sun 62 62 N 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 61 61 N 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 60 60 NE 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 59 59 NE 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 58 58 NE 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 58 58 NE 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 59 59 NE 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 63 64 NE 9 2955 2470 1054 Blue 2
10 AM Sun 67 69 NE 10 4003 3114 1698 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 72 75 NE 10 4308 4151 2735 Blue 13
12 Noon Sun 76 79 NE 9 5114 4442 3026 Blue 17
1 PM Sun 78 81 NE 8 5315 4844 3428 Blue 18
2 PM Sun 80 83 NE 7 5731 5201 3785 Blue 20
3 PM Sun 81 82 NE 6 5481 5089 3673 Blue 19
4 PM Sun 80 80 N 5 5214 4643 3227 Blue 17
5 PM Sun 79 79 N 5 5114 4442 3026 Blue 17
6 PM Sun 77 77 N 5 4666 4252 2836 Blue 15
7 PM Sun 74 74 N 6 4257 4100 2684 Blue 12
8 PM Sun 71 71 N 6 4105 3318 1902 Blue 9
9 PM Sun 69 69 N 6 4003 3114 1698 Blue 7
10 PM Sun 67 67 N 6 3201 2950 1534 Blue 5
11 PM Sun 65 65 N 6 3037 2470 1054 Blue 3
12 Midnight Mon 63 63 N 6 2837 2470 1054 Blue 1
1 AM Mon 61 61 N 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 60 60 N 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 59 59 N 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 58 58 N 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 57 57 N 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 56 56 N 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 57 57 NE 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 58 58 NE 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 61 62 NE 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 66 68 NE 6 3395 3032 1616 Blue 6
11 AM Mon 70 73 NE 6 4206 4049 2633 Blue 11
12 Noon Mon 74 77 NE 6 4666 4252 2836 Blue 15
1 PM Mon 77 80 NE 5 5214 4643 3227 Blue 17
2 PM Mon 79 81 N 5 5315 4844 3428 Blue 18
3 PM Mon 79 80 N 5 5214 4643 3227 Blue 17
4 PM Mon 79 79 N 3 5114 4442 3026 Blue 17
5 PM Mon 77 77 N 3 4666 4252 2836 Blue 15
6 PM Mon 75 75 N 3 4308 4151 2735 Blue 13
7 PM Mon 73 73 N 3 4206 4049 2633 Blue 11
8 PM Mon 70 70 N 3 4054 3196 1780 Blue 8
9 PM Mon 68 68 N 3 3395 3032 1616 Blue 6
10 PM Mon 66 66 N 3 3119 2819 1403 Blue 4
11 PM Mon 64 64 N 3 2955 2470 1054 Blue 2
12 Midnight Tue 63 63 NE 5 2837 2470 1054 Blue 1
1 AM Tue 61 61 NE 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 60 60 E 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 58 58 E 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 57 57 E 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com