Detailed Predictions for: Oatman Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 1416
LZ Altitude (f): 550
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 51 51 NE 16 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 51 51 NE 16 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 50 50 NE 17 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 52 52 NE 17 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 53 54 NE 17 0 1416 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 55 57 E 17 4998 2470 1054 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 56 59 E 17 6752 3805 2389 Blue 4
12 Noon Tue 59 62 NE 16 7385 6607 5191 Blue 7
1 PM Tue 61 64 NE 15 7472 7298 5882 Blue 9
2 PM Tue 62 65 NE 14 7515 7376 5960 Blue 10
3 PM Tue 62 63 NE 12 7429 7089 5673 Blue 8
4 PM Tue 63 63 NE 10 7429 7089 5673 Blue 8
5 PM Tue 62 62 NE 9 7385 6607 5191 Blue 7
6 PM Tue 59 59 NE 9 6752 3805 2389 Blue 4
7 PM Tue 57 57 NE 9 4998 2470 1054 Blue 2
8 PM Tue 56 56 NE 9 3905 2470 1054 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 56 56 NE 9 3905 2470 1054 Blue 1
10 PM Tue 56 56 NE 10 3905 2470 1054 Blue 1
11 PM Tue 54 54 NE 10 0 1416 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 54 54 NE 10 0 1416 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 53 53 NE 12 0 1416 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 52 52 NE 12 0 1416 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 51 51 NE 13 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 51 51 NE 13 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 50 50 NE 14 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 50 50 NE 15 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 49 49 NE 15 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 52 52 NE 16 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 54 54 NE 17 0 1416 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 56 57 NE 17 4998 2470 1054 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 57 58 NE 17 5921 2762 1346 Blue 3
12 Noon Wed 62 63 NE 16 7429 7089 5673 Blue 8
1 PM Wed 65 66 NE 15 7591 7419 6003 Blue 11
2 PM Wed 67 68 NE 14 7978 7506 6090 Blue 13
3 PM Wed 67 67 NE 13 7725 7463 6047 Blue 12
4 PM Wed 68 68 NE 12 7978 7506 6090 Blue 13
5 PM Wed 66 66 NE 10 7591 7419 6003 Blue 11
6 PM Wed 63 63 NE 10 7429 7089 5673 Blue 8
7 PM Wed 61 61 NE 9 7341 5788 4372 Blue 6
8 PM Wed 60 60 NE 9 7131 4874 3458 Blue 5
9 PM Wed 59 59 NE 9 6752 3805 2389 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 59 59 NE 10 6752 3805 2389 Blue 4
11 PM Wed 57 57 NE 10 4998 2470 1054 Blue 2
12 Midnight Thu 57 57 NE 10 4998 2470 1054 Blue 2
1 AM Thu 56 56 NE 12 3905 2470 1054 Blue 1
2 AM Thu 55 55 NE 13 2793 2470 1054 Blue 1
3 AM Thu 54 54 NE 13 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 53 53 NE 14 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 53 53 NE 14 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 52 52 NE 14 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 51 51 NE 15 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 54 54 NE 15 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 56 57 NE 15 4998 2470 1054 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 58 60 NE 14 7131 4874 3458 Blue 5
11 AM Thu 60 63 NE 14 7429 7089 5673 Blue 8
12 Noon Thu 65 68 NE 13 7978 7506 6090 Blue 13
1 PM Thu 69 72 NE 13 8686 8230 6814 Blue 17
2 PM Thu 71 73 NE 12 8725 8554 7138 Blue 18
3 PM Thu 71 72 NE 10 8686 8230 6814 Blue 17
4 PM Thu 71 71 NE 9 8648 7902 6486 Blue 16
5 PM Thu 70 70 NE 8 8609 7695 6279 Blue 15
6 PM Thu 65 65 NE 8 7515 7376 5960 Blue 10
7 PM Thu 63 63 NE 7 7429 7089 5673 Blue 8
8 PM Thu 62 62 NE 7 7385 6607 5191 Blue 7
9 PM Thu 61 61 NE 7 7341 5788 4372 Blue 6
10 PM Thu 61 61 NE 7 7341 5788 4372 Blue 6
11 PM Thu 59 59 NE 7 6752 3805 2389 Blue 4
12 Midnight Fri 58 58 NE 7 5921 2762 1346 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 57 57 NE 7 4998 2470 1054 Blue 2
2 AM Fri 55 55 NE 8 2793 2470 1054 Blue 1
3 AM Fri 55 55 NE 8 2793 2470 1054 Blue 1
4 AM Fri 54 54 NE 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 53 53 NE 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 52 52 NE 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 51 51 NE 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 54 54 NE 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 57 57 NE 7 4998 2470 1054 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 59 60 NE 6 7131 4874 3458 Blue 5
11 AM Fri 61 63 NE 6 7429 7089 5673 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 66 69 NE 6 8308 7562 6146 Blue 14
1 PM Fri 69 72 N 6 8686 8230 6814 Blue 17
2 PM Fri 72 74 N 5 8763 8638 7222 Blue 19
3 PM Fri 72 73 NW 5 8725 8554 7138 Blue 18
4 PM Fri 72 72 W 5 8686 8230 6814 Blue 17
5 PM Fri 71 71 W 5 8648 7902 6486 Blue 16
6 PM Fri 66 66 W 5 7591 7419 6003 Blue 11
7 PM Fri 64 64 W 5 7472 7298 5882 Blue 9
8 PM Fri 63 63 NW 5 7429 7089 5673 Blue 8
9 PM Fri 62 62 NW 5 7385 6607 5191 Blue 7
10 PM Fri 62 62 NW 5 7385 6607 5191 Blue 7
11 PM Fri 60 60 N 5 7131 4874 3458 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sat 59 59 N 5 6752 3805 2389 Blue 4
1 AM Sat 58 58 N 5 5921 2762 1346 Blue 3
2 AM Sat 56 56 NE 5 3905 2470 1054 Blue 1
3 AM Sat 56 56 NE 5 3905 2470 1054 Blue 1
4 AM Sat 55 55 E 5 2793 2470 1054 Blue 1
5 AM Sat 54 54 E 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 53 53 E 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 52 52 E 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 55 55 E 3 2793 2470 1054 Blue 1
9 AM Sat 57 57 E 3 4998 2470 1054 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 59 60 E 3 7131 4874 3458 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 61 63 E 3 7429 7089 5673 Blue 8
12 Noon Sat 65 67 E 3 7725 7463 6047 Blue 12
1 PM Sat 69 71 SE 3 8648 7902 6486 Blue 16
2 PM Sat 71 73 SE 5 8725 8554 7138 Blue 18
3 PM Sat 71 72 S 5 8686 8230 6814 Blue 17
4 PM Sat 71 71 SW 5 8648 7902 6486 Blue 16
5 PM Sat 70 70 SW 5 8609 7695 6279 Blue 15
6 PM Sat 66 66 SW 5 7591 7419 6003 Blue 11
7 PM Sat 64 64 SW 5 7472 7298 5882 Blue 9
8 PM Sat 63 63 SW 3 7429 7089 5673 Blue 8
9 PM Sat 62 62 SW 3 7385 6607 5191 Blue 7
10 PM Sat 61 61 SW 3 7341 5788 4372 Blue 6
11 PM Sat 60 60 SW 3 7131 4874 3458 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sun 59 59 S 3 6752 3805 2389 Blue 4
1 AM Sun 57 57 S 3 4998 2470 1054 Blue 2
2 AM Sun 56 56 SE 5 3905 2470 1054 Blue 1
3 AM Sun 55 55 E 5 2793 2470 1054 Blue 1
4 AM Sun 55 55 E 6 2793 2470 1054 Blue 1
5 AM Sun 54 54 E 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 53 53 E 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 52 52 E 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 55 55 E 7 2793 2470 1054 Blue 1
9 AM Sun 57 57 NE 7 4998 2470 1054 Blue 2
10 AM Sun 59 60 NE 7 7131 4874 3458 Blue 5
11 AM Sun 61 62 NE 7 7385 6607 5191 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 66 68 NE 7 7978 7506 6090 Blue 13
1 PM Sun 70 72 NE 7 8686 8230 6814 Blue 17
2 PM Sun 72 73 NE 7 8725 8554 7138 Blue 18
3 PM Sun 72 73 NE 6 8725 8554 7138 Blue 18
4 PM Sun 73 73 N 6 8725 8554 7138 Blue 18
5 PM Sun 71 71 N 6 8648 7902 6486 Blue 16
6 PM Sun 68 68 N 6 7978 7506 6090 Blue 13
7 PM Sun 66 66 N 6 7591 7419 6003 Blue 11
8 PM Sun 65 65 N 5 7515 7376 5960 Blue 10
9 PM Sun 64 64 N 5 7472 7298 5882 Blue 9
10 PM Sun 64 64 N 5 7472 7298 5882 Blue 9
11 PM Sun 62 62 N 5 7385 6607 5191 Blue 7
12 Midnight Mon 62 62 N 5 7385 6607 5191 Blue 7
1 AM Mon 61 61 N 5 7341 5788 4372 Blue 6
2 AM Mon 60 60 NE 6 7131 4874 3458 Blue 5
3 AM Mon 59 59 NE 6 6752 3805 2389 Blue 4
4 AM Mon 58 58 NE 7 5921 2762 1346 Blue 3

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com