Detailed Predictions for: Oatman Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 1416
LZ Altitude (f): 550
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

1 DEC 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 46 46 NE 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 45 45 NE 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 43 43 NE 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 45 45 NE 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 50 50 N 6 2478 2470 1054 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 55 56 N 6 2700 2589 1173 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 60 62 N 5 2907 2802 1386 Blue 12
12 Noon Tue 64 67 NW 3 3344 3052 1636 Blue 17
1 PM Tue 68 71 NW 3 4037 3728 2312 Blue 21
2 PM Tue 69 71 W 7 4037 3728 2312 Blue 21
3 PM Tue 71 72 NW 8 4307 3828 2412 Blue 22
4 PM Tue 71 71 NW 10 4037 3728 2312 Blue 21
5 PM Tue 67 67 NW 9 3344 3052 1636 Blue 17
6 PM Tue 63 63 NW 8 2962 2836 1420 Blue 13
7 PM Tue 61 61 NW 7 2872 2767 1351 Blue 11
8 PM Tue 59 59 NW 6 2803 2698 1282 Blue 9
9 PM Tue 57 57 N 3 2735 2626 1210 Blue 7
10 PM Tue 55 55 N 5 2666 2551 1135 Blue 5
11 PM Tue 53 53 NE 6 2591 2476 1060 Blue 3
12 Midnight Wed 52 52 NE 9 2553 2470 1054 Blue 2
1 AM Wed 50 50 NE 9 2478 2470 1054 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 49 49 NE 10 0 1416 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 49 49 NE 10 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 48 48 NE 10 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 47 47 NE 10 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 45 45 N 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 44 44 N 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 45 45 NE 12 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 51 51 NE 8 2515 2470 1054 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 56 57 NE 10 2735 2626 1210 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 59 61 NE 14 2872 2767 1351 Blue 11
12 Noon Wed 63 66 NE 13 3249 2956 1540 Blue 16
1 PM Wed 65 67 NE 9 3344 3052 1636 Blue 17
2 PM Wed 67 69 NE 6 3836 3242 1826 Blue 19
3 PM Wed 67 68 NE 5 3736 3147 1731 Blue 18
4 PM Wed 66 66 N 5 3249 2956 1540 Blue 16
5 PM Wed 64 64 N 5 3058 2870 1454 Blue 14
6 PM Wed 62 62 N 6 2907 2802 1386 Blue 12
7 PM Wed 59 59 N 7 2803 2698 1282 Blue 9
8 PM Wed 56 56 N 8 2700 2589 1173 Blue 6
9 PM Wed 54 54 N 9 2628 2514 1098 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 52 52 N 9 2553 2470 1054 Blue 2
11 PM Wed 51 51 N 10 2515 2470 1054 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 50 50 N 12 2478 2470 1054 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 50 50 NE 12 2478 2470 1054 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 49 49 NE 13 0 1416 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 48 48 NE 13 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 48 48 NE 13 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 47 47 NE 13 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 46 46 NE 13 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 45 45 NE 13 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 46 46 NE 14 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 49 49 NE 15 0 1416 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 53 54 NE 16 2628 2514 1098 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 57 59 NE 17 2803 2698 1282 Blue 9
12 Noon Thu 60 62 NE 17 2907 2802 1386 Blue 12
1 PM Thu 62 64 NE 16 3058 2870 1454 Blue 14
2 PM Thu 63 65 NE 15 3153 2905 1489 Blue 15
3 PM Thu 64 65 NE 14 3153 2905 1489 Blue 15
4 PM Thu 63 63 NE 12 2962 2836 1420 Blue 13
5 PM Thu 62 62 NE 10 2907 2802 1386 Blue 12
6 PM Thu 60 60 NE 9 2838 2733 1317 Blue 10
7 PM Thu 57 57 NE 9 2735 2626 1210 Blue 7
8 PM Thu 55 55 NE 9 2666 2551 1135 Blue 5
9 PM Thu 53 53 NE 9 2591 2476 1060 Blue 3
10 PM Thu 52 52 NE 9 2553 2470 1054 Blue 2
11 PM Thu 51 51 NE 9 2515 2470 1054 Blue 1
12 Midnight Fri 50 50 NE 9 2478 2470 1054 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 49 49 NE 10 0 1416 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 48 48 NE 10 0 1416 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 47 47 NE 10 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 46 46 NE 10 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 45 45 NE 10 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 44 44 NE 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 43 43 NE 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 44 44 NE 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 47 47 NE 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 51 52 NE 8 2553 2470 1054 Blue 2
11 AM Fri 55 57 NE 9 2735 2626 1210 Blue 7
12 Noon Fri 58 60 NE 9 2838 2733 1317 Blue 10
1 PM Fri 61 63 NE 9 2962 2836 1420 Blue 13
2 PM Fri 62 64 NE 8 3058 2870 1454 Blue 14
3 PM Fri 63 64 NE 7 3058 2870 1454 Blue 14
4 PM Fri 62 62 NE 7 2907 2802 1386 Blue 12
5 PM Fri 61 61 NE 6 2872 2767 1351 Blue 11
6 PM Fri 59 59 NE 6 2803 2698 1282 Blue 9
7 PM Fri 56 56 NE 5 2700 2589 1173 Blue 6
8 PM Fri 53 53 NE 5 2591 2476 1060 Blue 3
9 PM Fri 51 51 NE 5 2515 2470 1054 Blue 1
10 PM Fri 50 50 NE 5 2478 2470 1054 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 49 49 NE 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 48 48 NE 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 47 47 NE 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 46 46 NE 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 45 45 NE 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 45 45 NE 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 44 44 NE 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 43 43 NE 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 42 42 NE 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 43 43 NE 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 47 47 NE 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 52 53 NE 7 2591 2476 1060 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 57 59 NE 8 2803 2698 1282 Blue 9
12 Noon Sat 60 62 NE 8 2907 2802 1386 Blue 12
1 PM Sat 63 65 NE 7 3153 2905 1489 Blue 15
2 PM Sat 64 66 NE 7 3249 2956 1540 Blue 16
3 PM Sat 65 66 NE 7 3249 2956 1540 Blue 16
4 PM Sat 64 64 NE 6 3058 2870 1454 Blue 14
5 PM Sat 63 63 NE 6 2962 2836 1420 Blue 13
6 PM Sat 61 61 NE 6 2872 2767 1351 Blue 11
7 PM Sat 59 59 NE 5 2803 2698 1282 Blue 9
8 PM Sat 56 56 NE 5 2700 2589 1173 Blue 6
9 PM Sat 54 54 NE 5 2628 2514 1098 Blue 4
10 PM Sat 52 52 NE 5 2553 2470 1054 Blue 2
11 PM Sat 51 51 NE 5 2515 2470 1054 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sun 49 49 NE 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 48 48 NE 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 47 47 NE 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 46 46 NE 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 45 45 NE 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 45 45 NE 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 44 44 NE 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 44 44 NE 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 45 45 NE 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 48 48 NE 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 53 54 NE 7 2628 2514 1098 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 57 59 NE 8 2803 2698 1282 Blue 9
12 Noon Sun 61 63 NE 8 2962 2836 1420 Blue 13
1 PM Sun 64 66 NE 8 3249 2956 1540 Blue 16
2 PM Sun 66 68 NE 8 3736 3147 1731 Blue 18
3 PM Sun 67 68 NE 7 3736 3147 1731 Blue 18
4 PM Sun 66 66 NE 7 3249 2956 1540 Blue 16
5 PM Sun 65 65 NE 6 3153 2905 1489 Blue 15
6 PM Sun 63 63 NE 6 2962 2836 1420 Blue 13
7 PM Sun 60 60 NE 5 2838 2733 1317 Blue 10
8 PM Sun 57 57 NE 5 2735 2626 1210 Blue 7
9 PM Sun 55 55 NE 5 2666 2551 1135 Blue 5
10 PM Sun 54 54 NE 5 2628 2514 1098 Blue 4
11 PM Sun 53 53 NE 5 2591 2476 1060 Blue 3
12 Midnight Mon 52 52 NE 5 2553 2470 1054 Blue 2
1 AM Mon 50 50 NE 6 2478 2470 1054 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 49 49 NE 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 48 48 NE 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 47 47 NE 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com