Detailed Predictions for: Oatman Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 1416
LZ Altitude (f): 550
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

17 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 55 55 NE 13 2642 2531 1115 Blue 5
6 AM Wed 54 54 NE 13 2605 2494 1078 Blue 4
7 AM Wed 53 53 NE 14 2569 2470 1054 Blue 3
8 AM Wed 52 52 NE 14 2532 2470 1054 Blue 2
9 AM Wed 52 52 NE 14 2532 2470 1054 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 54 55 NE 14 2642 2531 1115 Blue 5
11 AM Wed 57 59 NE 14 2804 2676 1260 Blue 9
12 Noon Wed 61 64 NE 14 3464 2912 1496 Blue 14
1 PM Wed 65 68 NE 13 4250 3645 2229 Blue 17
2 PM Wed 68 70 NE 12 4641 4036 2620 Blue 19
3 PM Wed 70 71 NE 9 4836 4231 2815 Blue 20
4 PM Wed 70 70 NE 8 4641 4036 2620 Blue 19
5 PM Wed 69 69 NE 6 4446 3841 2425 Blue 18
6 PM Wed 68 68 N 6 4250 3645 2229 Blue 17
7 PM Wed 66 66 N 7 3858 3253 1837 Blue 15
8 PM Wed 65 65 N 7 3661 3056 1640 Blue 14
9 PM Wed 64 64 N 6 3464 2912 1496 Blue 14
10 PM Wed 63 63 N 5 3266 2857 1441 Blue 13
11 PM Wed 62 62 NE 5 3068 2801 1385 Blue 12
12 Midnight Thu 60 60 NE 5 2860 2713 1297 Blue 10
1 AM Thu 59 59 NE 6 2804 2676 1260 Blue 9
2 AM Thu 58 58 NE 7 2751 2640 1224 Blue 8
3 AM Thu 58 58 NE 8 2751 2640 1224 Blue 8
4 AM Thu 58 58 NE 9 2751 2640 1224 Blue 8
5 AM Thu 57 57 NE 10 2715 2603 1187 Blue 7
6 AM Thu 56 56 NE 12 2678 2567 1151 Blue 6
7 AM Thu 55 55 NE 12 2642 2531 1115 Blue 5
8 AM Thu 54 54 NE 13 2605 2494 1078 Blue 4
9 AM Thu 55 55 NE 13 2642 2531 1115 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 57 58 NE 13 2751 2640 1224 Blue 8
11 AM Thu 61 63 NE 13 3266 2857 1441 Blue 13
12 Noon Thu 64 66 NE 13 3858 3253 1837 Blue 15
1 PM Thu 67 69 NE 13 4446 3841 2425 Blue 18
2 PM Thu 70 72 NE 12 5030 4425 3009 Blue 21
3 PM Thu 72 73 NE 10 5204 4619 3203 Blue 22
4 PM Thu 73 73 NE 8 5204 4619 3203 Blue 22
5 PM Thu 72 72 NE 7 5030 4425 3009 Blue 21
6 PM Thu 71 71 NE 7 4836 4231 2815 Blue 20
7 PM Thu 68 68 NE 7 4250 3645 2229 Blue 17
8 PM Thu 66 66 NE 6 3858 3253 1837 Blue 15
9 PM Thu 64 64 NE 6 3464 2912 1496 Blue 14
10 PM Thu 63 63 NE 5 3266 2857 1441 Blue 13
11 PM Thu 63 63 E 5 3266 2857 1441 Blue 13
12 Midnight Fri 62 62 E 5 3068 2801 1385 Blue 12
1 AM Fri 60 60 E 6 2860 2713 1297 Blue 10
2 AM Fri 59 59 E 6 2804 2676 1260 Blue 9
3 AM Fri 59 59 E 7 2804 2676 1260 Blue 9
4 AM Fri 58 58 E 7 2751 2640 1224 Blue 8
5 AM Fri 57 57 E 8 2715 2603 1187 Blue 7
6 AM Fri 56 56 E 8 2678 2567 1151 Blue 6
7 AM Fri 55 55 E 8 2642 2531 1115 Blue 5
8 AM Fri 55 55 E 7 2642 2531 1115 Blue 5
9 AM Fri 57 57 E 7 2715 2603 1187 Blue 7
10 AM Fri 60 61 E 6 2915 2749 1333 Blue 11
11 AM Fri 63 64 E 6 3464 2912 1496 Blue 14
12 Noon Fri 67 69 E 7 4446 3841 2425 Blue 18
1 PM Fri 70 72 SE 7 5030 4425 3009 Blue 21
2 PM Fri 73 74 S 8 5373 4812 3396 Blue 23
3 PM Fri 75 76 S 9 5711 5182 3766 Blue 25
4 PM Fri 75 75 SW 10 5542 5006 3590 Blue 24
5 PM Fri 74 74 SW 10 5373 4812 3396 Blue 23
6 PM Fri 72 72 SW 12 5030 4425 3009 Blue 21
7 PM Fri 70 70 SW 12 4641 4036 2620 Blue 19
8 PM Fri 68 68 SW 12 4250 3645 2229 Blue 17
9 PM Fri 67 67 W 12 4054 3449 2033 Blue 16
10 PM Fri 66 66 W 12 3858 3253 1837 Blue 15
11 PM Fri 65 65 W 12 3661 3056 1640 Blue 14
12 Midnight Sat 64 64 W 12 3464 2912 1496 Blue 14
1 AM Sat 62 62 W 12 3068 2801 1385 Blue 12
2 AM Sat 61 61 W 13 2915 2749 1333 Blue 11
3 AM Sat 61 61 W 13 2915 2749 1333 Blue 11
4 AM Sat 60 60 W 13 2860 2713 1297 Blue 10
5 AM Sat 59 59 W 13 2804 2676 1260 Blue 9
6 AM Sat 57 57 W 13 2715 2603 1187 Blue 7
7 AM Sat 54 54 W 12 2605 2494 1078 Blue 4
8 AM Sat 53 53 W 12 2569 2470 1054 Blue 3
9 AM Sat 53 53 W 10 2569 2470 1054 Blue 3
10 AM Sat 53 54 W 10 2605 2494 1078 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 55 57 W 10 2715 2603 1187 Blue 7
12 Noon Sat 57 59 W 10 2804 2676 1260 Blue 9
1 PM Sat 59 61 W 12 2915 2749 1333 Blue 11
2 PM Sat 60 62 W 12 3068 2801 1385 Blue 12
3 PM Sat 60 61 W 13 2915 2749 1333 Blue 11
4 PM Sat 58 58 W 13 2751 2640 1224 Blue 8
5 PM Sat 56 56 W 13 2678 2567 1151 Blue 6
6 PM Sat 55 55 W 13 2642 2531 1115 Blue 5
7 PM Sat 53 53 W 12 2569 2470 1054 Blue 3
8 PM Sat 53 53 W 10 2569 2470 1054 Blue 3
9 PM Sat 53 53 W 9 2569 2470 1054 Blue 3
10 PM Sat 54 54 NW 8 2605 2494 1078 Blue 4
11 PM Sat 53 53 NW 7 2569 2470 1054 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sun 50 50 NW 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 47 47 NW 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 45 45 NW 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 45 45 NW 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 47 47 NW 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 48 48 NW 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 48 48 N 3 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 47 47 N 3 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 46 46 N 3 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 46 46 N 3 0 1416 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 47 48 N 3 0 1416 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 50 52 N 3 2532 2470 1054 Blue 2
12 Noon Sun 55 58 N 3 2751 2640 1224 Blue 8
1 PM Sun 59 62 N 5 3068 2801 1385 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 62 64 N 5 3464 2912 1496 Blue 14
3 PM Sun 62 63 N 6 3266 2857 1441 Blue 13
4 PM Sun 61 61 NW 6 2915 2749 1333 Blue 11
5 PM Sun 59 59 NW 6 2804 2676 1260 Blue 9
6 PM Sun 58 58 NW 6 2751 2640 1224 Blue 8
7 PM Sun 58 58 N 6 2751 2640 1224 Blue 8
8 PM Sun 58 58 N 6 2751 2640 1224 Blue 8
9 PM Sun 57 57 N 6 2715 2603 1187 Blue 7
10 PM Sun 56 56 N 6 2678 2567 1151 Blue 6
11 PM Sun 54 54 N 6 2605 2494 1078 Blue 4
12 Midnight Mon 51 51 N 6 2496 2470 1054 Blue 1
1 AM Mon 48 48 N 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 46 46 N 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 47 47 N 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 49 49 NE 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 51 51 NE 6 2496 2470 1054 Blue 1
6 AM Mon 52 52 NE 7 2532 2470 1054 Blue 2
7 AM Mon 51 51 NE 7 2496 2470 1054 Blue 1
8 AM Mon 50 50 NE 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 51 51 NE 8 2496 2470 1054 Blue 1
10 AM Mon 52 53 NE 8 2569 2470 1054 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 55 56 NE 8 2678 2567 1151 Blue 6
12 Noon Mon 58 60 NE 8 2860 2713 1297 Blue 10
1 PM Mon 61 63 N 8 3266 2857 1441 Blue 13
2 PM Mon 64 66 N 7 3858 3253 1837 Blue 15
3 PM Mon 65 66 N 7 3858 3253 1837 Blue 15
4 PM Mon 65 65 N 7 3661 3056 1640 Blue 14
5 PM Mon 64 64 N 7 3464 2912 1496 Blue 14
6 PM Mon 63 63 N 6 3266 2857 1441 Blue 13
7 PM Mon 61 61 N 6 2915 2749 1333 Blue 11
8 PM Mon 60 60 N 6 2860 2713 1297 Blue 10
9 PM Mon 60 60 N 6 2860 2713 1297 Blue 10
10 PM Mon 59 59 N 6 2804 2676 1260 Blue 9
11 PM Mon 57 57 N 6 2715 2603 1187 Blue 7
12 Midnight Tue 54 54 N 6 2605 2494 1078 Blue 4
1 AM Tue 50 50 N 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 48 48 N 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 49 49 N 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 52 52 N 7 2532 2470 1054 Blue 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com