Detailed Predictions for: Oatman Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 1416
LZ Altitude (f): 550
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

27 MAY 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sun 68 68 SW 3 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 67 67 SW 2 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 69 71 S 2 2586 2470 1054 Blue 1
9 AM Sun 72 76 S 2 3215 2884 1468 Blue 6
10 AM Sun 74 80 S 3 3895 3316 1900 Blue 10
11 AM Sun 77 85 S 5 5853 4916 3500 Blue 14
12 Noon Sun 81 89 S 5 7155 6294 4878 Blue 18
1 PM Sun 82 90 SW 6 7487 6627 5211 Blue 19
2 PM Sun 84 91 SW 7 7818 6868 5452 Blue 20
3 PM Sun 86 92 SW 7 8146 7109 5693 Blue 21
4 PM Sun 87 91 SW 8 7818 6868 5452 Blue 20
5 PM Sun 87 89 SW 8 7155 6294 4878 Blue 18
6 PM Sun 88 88 SW 9 6913 5775 4359 Blue 17
7 PM Sun 88 88 SW 9 6913 5775 4359 Blue 17
8 PM Sun 87 87 SW 9 6669 5271 3855 Blue 16
9 PM Sun 83 83 SW 8 5117 3827 2411 Blue 12
10 PM Sun 83 83 SW 8 5117 3827 2411 Blue 12
11 PM Sun 82 82 W 8 4940 3532 2116 Blue 11
12 Midnight Mon 80 80 W 8 3895 3316 1900 Blue 10
1 AM Mon 78 78 W 7 3432 3100 1684 Blue 8
2 AM Mon 77 77 W 7 3324 2992 1576 Blue 7
3 AM Mon 75 75 W 6 3107 2757 1341 Blue 5
4 AM Mon 73 73 W 5 2890 2470 1054 Blue 3
5 AM Mon 72 72 W 2 2766 2470 1054 Blue 2
6 AM Mon 72 72 W 2 2766 2470 1054 Blue 2
7 AM Mon 71 71 SW 2 2586 2470 1054 Blue 1
8 AM Mon 75 77 S 2 3324 2992 1576 Blue 7
9 AM Mon 78 82 S 3 4940 3532 2116 Blue 11
10 AM Mon 82 88 S 3 6913 5775 4359 Blue 17
11 AM Mon 85 93 SW 3 8455 7420 6004 Blue 22
12 Noon Mon 89 98 SW 3 9795 8972 7556 Blue 27
1 PM Mon 91 99 SW 5 9991 9263 7847 Blue 28
2 PM Mon 93 100 W 6 10188 9545 8129 Blue 29
3 PM Mon 94 100 W 7 10188 9545 8129 Blue 29
4 PM Mon 95 99 W 8 9991 9263 7847 Blue 28
5 PM Mon 96 98 W 8 9795 8972 7556 Blue 27
6 PM Mon 96 96 W 8 9340 8386 6970 Blue 25
7 PM Mon 95 95 SW 9 9047 8073 6657 Blue 24
8 PM Mon 93 93 SW 9 8455 7420 6004 Blue 22
9 PM Mon 91 91 SW 9 7818 6868 5452 Blue 20
10 PM Mon 89 89 SW 10 7155 6294 4878 Blue 18
11 PM Mon 87 87 SW 12 6669 5271 3855 Blue 16
12 Midnight Tue 86 86 SW 12 6378 5095 3679 Blue 15
1 AM Tue 84 84 W 10 5312 4567 3151 Blue 13
2 AM Tue 83 83 W 9 5117 3827 2411 Blue 12
3 AM Tue 81 81 W 8 4600 3424 2008 Blue 11
4 AM Tue 78 78 W 7 3432 3100 1684 Blue 8
5 AM Tue 77 77 W 6 3324 2992 1576 Blue 7
6 AM Tue 76 76 W 5 3215 2884 1468 Blue 6
7 AM Tue 77 77 SW 5 3324 2992 1576 Blue 7
8 AM Tue 79 81 SW 6 4600 3424 2008 Blue 11
9 AM Tue 83 87 SW 7 6669 5271 3855 Blue 16
10 AM Tue 86 91 SW 6 7818 6868 5452 Blue 20
11 AM Tue 90 97 SW 5 9599 8680 7264 Blue 26
12 Noon Tue 93 101 SW 5 10399 9740 8324 Blue 30
1 PM Tue 95 103 SW 5 10819 10129 8713 Blue 32
2 PM Tue 97 104 SW 6 11382 10336 8920 Blue 33
3 PM Tue 98 103 SW 7 10819 10129 8713 Blue 32
4 PM Tue 99 102 SW 9 10609 9935 8519 Blue 31
5 PM Tue 100 101 SW 9 10399 9740 8324 Blue 30
6 PM Tue 100 100 SW 10 10188 9545 8129 Blue 29
7 PM Tue 99 99 SW 10 9991 9263 7847 Blue 28
8 PM Tue 96 96 SW 10 9340 8386 6970 Blue 25
9 PM Tue 93 93 SW 10 8455 7420 6004 Blue 22
10 PM Tue 91 91 SW 10 7818 6868 5452 Blue 20
11 PM Tue 88 88 SW 12 6913 5775 4359 Blue 17
12 Midnight Wed 87 87 SW 12 6669 5271 3855 Blue 16
1 AM Wed 85 85 SW 12 5853 4916 3500 Blue 14
2 AM Wed 83 83 SW 10 5117 3827 2411 Blue 12
3 AM Wed 82 82 SW 9 4940 3532 2116 Blue 11
4 AM Wed 80 80 SW 8 3895 3316 1900 Blue 10
5 AM Wed 78 78 S 8 3432 3100 1684 Blue 8
6 AM Wed 77 77 S 8 3324 2992 1576 Blue 7
7 AM Wed 77 77 S 8 3324 2992 1576 Blue 7
8 AM Wed 79 81 S 8 4600 3424 2008 Blue 11
9 AM Wed 82 86 S 8 6378 5095 3679 Blue 15
10 AM Wed 85 91 S 8 7818 6868 5452 Blue 20
11 AM Wed 89 97 S 8 9599 8680 7264 Blue 26
12 Noon Wed 92 101 S 8 10399 9740 8324 Blue 30
1 PM Wed 95 104 S 10 11382 10336 8920 Blue 33
2 PM Wed 97 105 S 12 11948 10545 9129 Blue 34
3 PM Wed 98 104 S 13 11382 10336 8920 Blue 33
4 PM Wed 99 103 S 15 10819 10129 8713 Blue 32
5 PM Wed 99 101 S 16 10399 9740 8324 Blue 30
6 PM Wed 98 98 S 17 9795 8972 7556 Blue 27
7 PM Wed 96 96 S 17 9340 8386 6970 Blue 25
8 PM Wed 93 93 S 16 8455 7420 6004 Blue 22
9 PM Wed 90 90 S 15 7487 6627 5211 Blue 19
10 PM Wed 87 87 S 15 6669 5271 3855 Blue 16
11 PM Wed 85 85 S 14 5853 4916 3500 Blue 14
12 Midnight Thu 83 83 S 13 5117 3827 2411 Blue 12
1 AM Thu 81 81 S 12 4600 3424 2008 Blue 11
2 AM Thu 80 80 S 10 3895 3316 1900 Blue 10
3 AM Thu 78 78 S 10 3432 3100 1684 Blue 8
4 AM Thu 76 76 S 9 3215 2884 1468 Blue 6
5 AM Thu 75 75 S 8 3107 2757 1341 Blue 5
6 AM Thu 74 74 S 8 2998 2578 1162 Blue 4
7 AM Thu 74 74 S 8 2998 2578 1162 Blue 4
8 AM Thu 76 78 S 8 3432 3100 1684 Blue 8
9 AM Thu 78 82 S 8 4940 3532 2116 Blue 11
10 AM Thu 81 86 S 8 6378 5095 3679 Blue 15
11 AM Thu 85 92 S 8 8146 7109 5693 Blue 21
12 Noon Thu 88 95 S 9 9047 8073 6657 Blue 24
1 PM Thu 91 98 S 10 9795 8972 7556 Blue 27
2 PM Thu 93 99 S 12 9991 9263 7847 Blue 28
3 PM Thu 94 98 S 13 9795 8972 7556 Blue 27
4 PM Thu 95 98 S 14 9795 8972 7556 Blue 27
5 PM Thu 96 97 SW 15 9599 8680 7264 Blue 26
6 PM Thu 95 95 SW 15 9047 8073 6657 Blue 24
7 PM Thu 93 93 SW 15 8455 7420 6004 Blue 22
8 PM Thu 90 90 SW 15 7487 6627 5211 Blue 19
9 PM Thu 88 88 SW 15 6913 5775 4359 Blue 17
10 PM Thu 85 85 SW 14 5853 4916 3500 Blue 14
11 PM Thu 83 83 SW 13 5117 3827 2411 Blue 12
12 Midnight Fri 81 81 SW 13 4600 3424 2008 Blue 11
1 AM Fri 79 79 SW 12 3540 3208 1792 Blue 9
2 AM Fri 77 77 SW 12 3324 2992 1576 Blue 7
3 AM Fri 75 75 SW 10 3107 2757 1341 Blue 5
4 AM Fri 73 73 S 9 2890 2470 1054 Blue 3
5 AM Fri 72 72 S 9 2766 2470 1054 Blue 2
6 AM Fri 72 72 S 8 2766 2470 1054 Blue 2
7 AM Fri 72 72 S 8 2766 2470 1054 Blue 2
8 AM Fri 74 76 SW 7 3215 2884 1468 Blue 6
9 AM Fri 76 80 SW 7 3895 3316 1900 Blue 10
10 AM Fri 78 84 SW 7 5312 4567 3151 Blue 13
11 AM Fri 81 89 SW 6 7155 6294 4878 Blue 18
12 Noon Fri 84 93 SW 6 8455 7420 6004 Blue 22
1 PM Fri 86 95 SW 7 9047 8073 6657 Blue 24
2 PM Fri 88 96 SW 7 9340 8386 6970 Blue 25
3 PM Fri 90 96 SW 8 9340 8386 6970 Blue 25
4 PM Fri 91 95 SW 9 9047 8073 6657 Blue 24
5 PM Fri 92 94 W 9 8752 7748 6332 Blue 23
6 PM Fri 91 91 W 10 7818 6868 5452 Blue 20
7 PM Fri 90 90 W 10 7487 6627 5211 Blue 19
8 PM Fri 88 88 W 9 6913 5775 4359 Blue 17
9 PM Fri 86 86 W 9 6378 5095 3679 Blue 15
10 PM Fri 84 84 W 9 5312 4567 3151 Blue 13
11 PM Fri 82 82 W 8 4940 3532 2116 Blue 11
12 Midnight Sat 80 80 W 8 3895 3316 1900 Blue 10
1 AM Sat 78 78 W 7 3432 3100 1684 Blue 8
2 AM Sat 77 77 NW 6 3324 2992 1576 Blue 7
3 AM Sat 75 75 NW 6 3107 2757 1341 Blue 5
4 AM Sat 73 73 N 5 2890 2470 1054 Blue 3
5 AM Sat 72 72 N 5 2766 2470 1054 Blue 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com