Detailed Predictions for: Oatman Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 1416
LZ Altitude (f): 550
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 51 51 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 50 50 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 50 50 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 51 51 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 53 53 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 56 57 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 58 60 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 61 63 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 63 65 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 64 65 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 66 67 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 67 67 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 66 66 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 64 64 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 63 63 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 63 63 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 62 62 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 61 61 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 60 60 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 59 59 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 58 58 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 58 58 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 58 58 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 57 57 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 56 56 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 56 56 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 55 55 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 56 56 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 57 57 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 58 59 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 60 62 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 62 64 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 64 66 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 65 67 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 66 67 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 66 66 NW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 65 65 NW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 64 64 NW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 62 62 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 60 60 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 59 59 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 59 59 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 58 58 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 57 57 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 56 56 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 56 56 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 55 55 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 55 55 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 54 54 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 53 53 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 53 53 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 53 53 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 54 54 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 57 58 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 60 62 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 62 65 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 63 66 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 65 68 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 66 68 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 67 67 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 66 66 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 64 64 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 61 61 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 58 58 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 56 56 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 56 56 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 55 55 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 54 54 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 52 52 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 51 51 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 50 50 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 50 50 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 50 50 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 49 49 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 49 49 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 50 50 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 52 52 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 55 55 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 59 60 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 62 63 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 65 66 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 67 68 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 68 68 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 69 69 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 68 68 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 66 66 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 63 63 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 60 60 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 59 59 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 57 57 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 56 56 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 55 55 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 54 54 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 53 53 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 52 52 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 51 51 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 51 51 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 50 50 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 49 49 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 50 50 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 52 52 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 56 57 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 59 61 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 62 64 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 64 67 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 65 67 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 66 67 NW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 66 66 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 65 65 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 63 63 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 61 61 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 59 59 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 58 58 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 57 57 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 56 56 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 54 54 NW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 53 53 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 52 52 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 51 51 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 50 50 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 50 50 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 49 49 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 48 48 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 48 48 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 50 50 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 53 54 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 56 58 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 58 61 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 61 64 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 62 64 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 63 64 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 63 63 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 62 62 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 60 60 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 58 58 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 56 56 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 55 55 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 54 54 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 53 53 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 51 51 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 49 49 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 47 47 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 46 46 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 46 46 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com