Detailed Predictions for: Oatman Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 1416
LZ Altitude (f): 550
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

19 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 60 60 NE 12 1741 1741 325 White 0
6 AM Sun 56 56 NE 13 1257 1416 0 White 0
7 AM Sun 57 57 NE 14 1257 1416 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 58 58 NE 14 1299 1416 0 White 0
9 AM Sun 61 62 NE 14 2183 2183 767 White 0
10 AM Sun 65 67 NE 14 2747 2656 1240 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 67 70 NE 14 2889 2745 1329 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 72 75 NE 13 3332 3141 1725 Blue 15
1 PM Sun 74 77 NE 12 3792 3266 1850 Blue 17
2 PM Sun 75 77 NE 10 3792 3266 1850 Blue 17
3 PM Sun 77 78 NE 9 3871 3328 1912 Blue 18
4 PM Sun 77 77 N 7 3792 3266 1850 Blue 17
5 PM Sun 74 74 N 7 3270 2937 1521 Blue 14
6 PM Sun 71 71 N 8 2941 2786 1370 Blue 11
7 PM Sun 69 69 N 9 2839 2715 1299 Blue 9
8 PM Sun 67 67 N 10 2747 2656 1240 Blue 7
9 PM Sun 67 67 N 10 2747 2656 1240 Blue 7
10 PM Sun 65 65 N 10 2687 2604 1188 Blue 5
11 PM Sun 64 64 N 9 2618 2565 1149 White 4
12 Midnight Mon 62 62 N 9 2183 2183 767 White 0
1 AM Mon 61 61 NE 9 1962 1962 546 White 0
2 AM Mon 60 60 NE 8 1741 1741 325 White 0
3 AM Mon 58 58 NE 8 1299 1416 0 White 0
4 AM Mon 58 58 NE 8 1299 1416 0 White 0
5 AM Mon 58 58 NE 9 1299 1416 0 White 0
6 AM Mon 57 57 NE 9 1257 1416 0 White 0
7 AM Mon 57 57 NE 9 1257 1416 0 White 0
8 AM Mon 58 58 NE 10 1299 1416 0 White 0
9 AM Mon 63 63 NE 10 2403 2403 987 White 0
10 AM Mon 67 68 NE 9 2788 2685 1269 Blue 8
11 AM Mon 70 72 NE 9 3145 2836 1420 Blue 12
12 Noon Mon 75 77 NE 7 3792 3266 1850 Blue 17
1 PM Mon 78 80 NE 6 5149 3785 2369 Blue 20
2 PM Mon 78 79 NE 5 4171 3484 2068 Blue 19
3 PM Mon 78 79 N 3 4171 3484 2068 Blue 19
4 PM Mon 78 78 NW 3 3871 3328 1912 Blue 18
5 PM Mon 78 78 NW 3 3871 3328 1912 Blue 18
6 PM Mon 76 76 NW 3 3509 3204 1788 Blue 16
7 PM Mon 74 74 NW 5 3270 2937 1521 Blue 14
8 PM Mon 71 71 NW 5 2941 2786 1370 Blue 11
9 PM Mon 69 69 NW 6 2839 2715 1299 Blue 9
10 PM Mon 68 68 NW 6 2788 2685 1269 Blue 8
11 PM Mon 66 66 N 7 2717 2629 1213 Blue 6
12 Midnight Tue 64 64 N 6 2618 2565 1149 White 4
1 AM Tue 63 63 N 6 2403 2403 987 White 0
2 AM Tue 61 61 N 6 1962 1962 546 White 0
3 AM Tue 61 61 N 6 1962 1962 546 White 0
4 AM Tue 60 60 N 6 1741 1741 325 White 0
5 AM Tue 60 60 N 6 1741 1741 325 White 0
6 AM Tue 59 59 N 6 1521 1521 105 White 0
7 AM Tue 59 59 NE 6 1521 1521 105 White 0
8 AM Tue 60 60 NE 6 1741 1741 325 White 0
9 AM Tue 63 63 NE 6 2403 2403 987 White 0
10 AM Tue 67 68 NE 6 2788 2685 1269 Blue 8
11 AM Tue 72 74 NE 7 3270 2937 1521 Blue 14
12 Noon Tue 76 78 NE 6 3871 3328 1912 Blue 18
1 PM Tue 79 81 NE 6 5378 3864 2448 Blue 21
2 PM Tue 81 82 N 6 5537 4081 2665 Blue 22
3 PM Tue 82 83 N 6 5695 4991 3575 Blue 23
4 PM Tue 82 82 N 5 5537 4081 2665 Blue 22
5 PM Tue 80 80 N 5 5149 3785 2369 Blue 20
6 PM Tue 78 78 N 6 3871 3328 1912 Blue 18
7 PM Tue 76 76 N 6 3509 3204 1788 Blue 16
8 PM Tue 74 74 N 7 3270 2937 1521 Blue 14
9 PM Tue 73 73 N 7 3208 2887 1471 Blue 13
10 PM Tue 72 72 N 8 3145 2836 1420 Blue 12
11 PM Tue 71 71 N 8 2941 2786 1370 Blue 11
12 Midnight Wed 70 70 N 9 2889 2745 1329 Blue 10
1 AM Wed 67 67 NE 10 2747 2656 1240 Blue 7
2 AM Wed 65 65 NE 12 2687 2604 1188 Blue 5
3 AM Wed 65 65 NE 12 2687 2604 1188 Blue 5
4 AM Wed 64 64 NE 13 2618 2565 1149 White 4
5 AM Wed 64 64 NE 13 2618 2565 1149 White 4
6 AM Wed 63 63 NE 14 2403 2403 987 White 0
7 AM Wed 63 63 NE 15 2403 2403 987 White 0
8 AM Wed 64 64 NE 16 2618 2565 1149 White 4
9 AM Wed 67 67 E 16 2747 2656 1240 Blue 7
10 AM Wed 72 73 E 16 3208 2887 1471 Blue 13
11 AM Wed 77 79 E 16 4171 3484 2068 Blue 19
12 Noon Wed 81 84 E 15 5853 5357 3941 Blue 24
1 PM Wed 84 87 NE 14 7623 5829 4413 White 27
2 PM Wed 86 88 NE 13 7831 6456 5040 White 28
3 PM Wed 86 87 NE 10 7623 5829 4413 White 27
4 PM Wed 85 85 NE 9 6579 5515 4099 Blue 25
5 PM Wed 83 83 NE 8 5695 4991 3575 Blue 23
6 PM Wed 81 81 NE 7 5378 3864 2448 Blue 21
7 PM Wed 79 79 NE 7 4171 3484 2068 Blue 19
8 PM Wed 77 77 NE 7 3792 3266 1850 Blue 17
9 PM Wed 75 75 NE 8 3332 3141 1725 Blue 15
10 PM Wed 74 74 NE 8 3270 2937 1521 Blue 14
11 PM Wed 73 73 NE 9 3208 2887 1471 Blue 13
12 Midnight Thu 72 72 NE 9 3145 2836 1420 Blue 12
1 AM Thu 70 70 NE 10 2889 2745 1329 Blue 10
2 AM Thu 69 69 NE 12 2839 2715 1299 Blue 9
3 AM Thu 68 68 NE 12 2788 2685 1269 Blue 8
4 AM Thu 68 68 NE 13 2788 2685 1269 Blue 8
5 AM Thu 67 67 NE 13 2747 2656 1240 Blue 7
6 AM Thu 66 66 NE 14 2717 2629 1213 Blue 6
7 AM Thu 65 65 NE 14 2687 2604 1188 Blue 5
8 AM Thu 66 66 NE 14 2717 2629 1213 Blue 6
9 AM Thu 68 68 NE 14 2788 2685 1269 Blue 8
10 AM Thu 73 75 NE 14 3332 3141 1725 Blue 15
11 AM Thu 77 79 NE 13 4171 3484 2068 Blue 19
12 Noon Thu 81 84 NE 13 5853 5357 3941 Blue 24
1 PM Thu 85 88 NE 12 7831 6456 5040 White 28
2 PM Thu 87 89 NE 9 8040 7145 5729 White 29
3 PM Thu 87 88 NE 8 7831 6456 5040 White 28
4 PM Thu 86 86 NE 7 7276 5672 4256 Blue 26
5 PM Thu 84 84 NE 6 5853 5357 3941 Blue 24
6 PM Thu 82 82 NE 6 5537 4081 2665 Blue 22
7 PM Thu 79 79 NE 5 4171 3484 2068 Blue 19
8 PM Thu 76 76 NE 5 3509 3204 1788 Blue 16
9 PM Thu 75 75 NE 5 3332 3141 1725 Blue 15
10 PM Thu 74 74 NE 5 3270 2937 1521 Blue 14
11 PM Thu 73 73 NE 5 3208 2887 1471 Blue 13
12 Midnight Fri 71 71 NE 5 2941 2786 1370 Blue 11
1 AM Fri 70 70 NE 5 2889 2745 1329 Blue 10
2 AM Fri 68 68 NE 5 2788 2685 1269 Blue 8
3 AM Fri 67 67 NE 6 2747 2656 1240 Blue 7
4 AM Fri 67 67 NE 6 2747 2656 1240 Blue 7
5 AM Fri 66 66 NE 6 2717 2629 1213 Blue 6
6 AM Fri 65 65 NE 6 2687 2604 1188 Blue 5
7 AM Fri 64 64 NE 6 2618 2565 1149 White 4
8 AM Fri 65 65 NE 6 2687 2604 1188 Blue 5
9 AM Fri 68 68 NE 6 2788 2685 1269 Blue 8
10 AM Fri 72 73 NE 5 3208 2887 1471 Blue 13
11 AM Fri 77 79 NE 5 4171 3484 2068 Blue 19
12 Noon Fri 81 84 NE 5 5853 5357 3941 Blue 24
1 PM Fri 84 87 N 3 7623 5829 4413 White 27
2 PM Fri 86 88 N 3 7831 6456 5040 White 28
3 PM Fri 86 87 NW 3 7623 5829 4413 White 27
4 PM Fri 85 85 W 2 6579 5515 4099 Blue 25
5 PM Fri 83 83 W 2 5695 4991 3575 Blue 23
6 PM Fri 80 80 W 1 5149 3785 2369 Blue 20
7 PM Fri 78 78 W 1 3871 3328 1912 Blue 18
8 PM Fri 77 77 SW 1 3792 3266 1850 Blue 17
9 PM Fri 75 75 SW 1 3332 3141 1725 Blue 15
10 PM Fri 74 74 SW 1 3270 2937 1521 Blue 14
11 PM Fri 72 72 SW 1 3145 2836 1420 Blue 12
12 Midnight Sat 70 70 S 1 2889 2745 1329 Blue 10
1 AM Sat 69 69 S 1 2839 2715 1299 Blue 9
2 AM Sat 67 67 SE 1 2747 2656 1240 Blue 7
3 AM Sat 67 67 SE 2 2747 2656 1240 Blue 7
4 AM Sat 66 66 E 2 2717 2629 1213 Blue 6

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com