Detailed Predictions for: Oatman Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 1416
LZ Altitude (f): 550
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

17 SEP 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 78 78 S 3 2636 2470 1054 Blue 1
7 AM Tue 78 78 S 3 2636 2470 1054 Blue 1
8 AM Tue 78 78 S 2 2636 2470 1054 Blue 1
9 AM Tue 81 83 SE 2 3385 2736 1320 Blue 6
10 AM Tue 84 88 S 3 3991 3629 2213 Blue 11
11 AM Tue 87 92 S 3 4528 4097 2681 Blue 15
12 Noon Tue 89 95 S 5 5833 4475 3059 Blue 18
1 PM Tue 92 98 S 6 6773 5786 4370 Blue 21
2 PM Tue 94 99 SW 7 8433 6099 4683 Blue 22
3 PM Tue 96 100 SW 8 10132 6409 4993 Blue 23
4 PM Tue 97 99 SW 9 8433 6099 4683 Blue 22
5 PM Tue 98 99 SW 9 8433 6099 4683 Blue 22
6 PM Tue 97 97 W 10 6462 5458 4042 Blue 20
7 PM Tue 96 96 W 10 6149 4957 3541 Blue 19
8 PM Tue 93 93 W 9 5018 4214 2798 Blue 16
9 PM Tue 91 91 W 9 4343 3980 2564 Blue 14
10 PM Tue 90 90 W 8 4225 3863 2447 Blue 13
11 PM Tue 88 88 W 7 3991 3629 2213 Blue 11
12 Midnight Wed 86 86 W 7 3756 3356 1940 Blue 9
1 AM Wed 85 85 W 6 3639 2961 1545 Blue 8
2 AM Wed 83 83 W 5 3385 2736 1320 Blue 6
3 AM Wed 82 82 SW 3 2985 2685 1269 Blue 5
4 AM Wed 80 80 SW 3 2739 2470 1054 Blue 3
5 AM Wed 79 79 SW 2 2687 2470 1054 Blue 2
6 AM Wed 77 77 SW 1 2475 2470 1054 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 77 77 S 2 2475 2470 1054 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 78 79 S 2 2687 2470 1054 Blue 2
9 AM Wed 81 83 S 3 3385 2736 1320 Blue 6
10 AM Wed 85 89 S 3 4108 3746 2330 Blue 12
11 AM Wed 88 94 S 5 5515 4331 2915 Blue 17
12 Noon Wed 91 98 S 5 6773 5786 4370 Blue 21
1 PM Wed 94 101 SW 7 10896 6717 5301 Blue 24
2 PM Wed 95 101 SW 9 10896 6717 5301 Blue 24
3 PM Wed 97 101 SW 10 10896 6717 5301 Blue 24
4 PM Wed 98 100 SW 12 10132 6409 4993 Blue 23
5 PM Wed 99 100 SW 13 10132 6409 4993 Blue 23
6 PM Wed 98 98 SW 13 6773 5786 4370 Blue 21
7 PM Wed 96 96 SW 13 6149 4957 3541 Blue 19
8 PM Wed 93 93 SW 13 5018 4214 2798 Blue 16
9 PM Wed 90 90 SW 12 4225 3863 2447 Blue 13
10 PM Wed 88 88 SW 13 3991 3629 2213 Blue 11
11 PM Wed 86 86 SW 13 3756 3356 1940 Blue 9
12 Midnight Thu 84 84 SW 13 3521 2788 1372 Blue 7
1 AM Thu 83 83 SW 13 3385 2736 1320 Blue 6
2 AM Thu 81 81 SW 12 2791 2633 1217 Blue 4
3 AM Thu 80 80 SW 10 2739 2470 1054 Blue 3
4 AM Thu 78 78 SW 9 2636 2470 1054 Blue 1
5 AM Thu 77 77 S 8 2475 2470 1054 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 76 76 S 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 76 76 S 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 77 78 S 7 2636 2470 1054 Blue 1
9 AM Thu 79 81 S 7 2791 2633 1217 Blue 4
10 AM Thu 82 86 S 9 3756 3356 1940 Blue 9
11 AM Thu 86 91 S 10 4343 3980 2564 Blue 14
12 Noon Thu 89 95 S 12 5833 4475 3059 Blue 18
1 PM Thu 91 97 SW 12 6462 5458 4042 Blue 20
2 PM Thu 93 99 SW 13 8433 6099 4683 Blue 22
3 PM Thu 94 98 SW 13 6773 5786 4370 Blue 21
4 PM Thu 95 97 SW 14 6462 5458 4042 Blue 20
5 PM Thu 96 97 SW 14 6462 5458 4042 Blue 20
6 PM Thu 95 95 SW 14 5833 4475 3059 Blue 18
7 PM Thu 93 93 SW 14 5018 4214 2798 Blue 16
8 PM Thu 89 89 SW 14 4108 3746 2330 Blue 12
9 PM Thu 86 86 SW 14 3756 3356 1940 Blue 9
10 PM Thu 83 83 SW 14 3385 2736 1320 Blue 6
11 PM Thu 82 82 SW 13 2985 2685 1269 Blue 5
12 Midnight Fri 80 80 SW 12 2739 2470 1054 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 78 78 SW 10 2636 2470 1054 Blue 1
2 AM Fri 77 77 SW 9 2475 2470 1054 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 75 75 SW 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 73 73 SW 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 72 72 SW 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 71 71 S 3 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 71 71 S 3 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 73 74 S 2 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 75 77 S 2 2475 2470 1054 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 78 82 S 2 2985 2685 1269 Blue 5
11 AM Fri 82 88 S 2 3991 3629 2213 Blue 11
12 Noon Fri 85 92 S 2 4528 4097 2681 Blue 15
1 PM Fri 88 95 S 3 5833 4475 3059 Blue 18
2 PM Fri 90 96 SW 3 6149 4957 3541 Blue 19
3 PM Fri 92 96 SW 5 6149 4957 3541 Blue 19
4 PM Fri 94 96 SW 6 6149 4957 3541 Blue 19
5 PM Fri 95 96 SW 6 6149 4957 3541 Blue 19
6 PM Fri 94 94 W 7 5515 4331 2915 Blue 17
7 PM Fri 92 92 W 7 4528 4097 2681 Blue 15
8 PM Fri 88 88 W 7 3991 3629 2213 Blue 11
9 PM Fri 85 85 W 7 3639 2961 1545 Blue 8
10 PM Fri 83 83 W 7 3385 2736 1320 Blue 6
11 PM Fri 81 81 W 7 2791 2633 1217 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sat 80 80 W 6 2739 2470 1054 Blue 3
1 AM Sat 78 78 W 6 2636 2470 1054 Blue 1
2 AM Sat 76 76 SW 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 74 74 SW 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 72 72 SW 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 71 71 S 3 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 71 71 S 3 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 72 72 S 2 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 73 74 S 2 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 76 78 S 1 2636 2470 1054 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 79 83 S 1 3385 2736 1320 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 83 88 S 1 3991 3629 2213 Blue 11
12 Noon Sat 87 93 SE 1 5018 4214 2798 Blue 16
1 PM Sat 90 96 S 1 6149 4957 3541 Blue 19
2 PM Sat 92 97 S 2 6462 5458 4042 Blue 20
3 PM Sat 94 98 S 2 6773 5786 4370 Blue 21
4 PM Sat 95 97 SW 3 6462 5458 4042 Blue 20
5 PM Sat 96 97 SW 3 6462 5458 4042 Blue 20
6 PM Sat 95 95 W 5 5833 4475 3059 Blue 18
7 PM Sat 93 93 W 5 5018 4214 2798 Blue 16
8 PM Sat 89 89 W 5 4108 3746 2330 Blue 12
9 PM Sat 86 86 W 5 3756 3356 1940 Blue 9
10 PM Sat 83 83 W 5 3385 2736 1320 Blue 6
11 PM Sat 81 81 W 5 2791 2633 1217 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sun 80 80 W 5 2739 2470 1054 Blue 3
1 AM Sun 79 79 W 5 2687 2470 1054 Blue 2
2 AM Sun 77 77 SW 5 2475 2470 1054 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 76 76 SW 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 74 74 SW 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 73 73 S 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 72 72 S 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 73 73 S 3 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 74 74 S 3 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 77 79 S 2 2687 2470 1054 Blue 2
10 AM Sun 80 83 SE 2 3385 2736 1320 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 84 88 SE 1 3991 3629 2213 Blue 11
12 Noon Sun 88 93 SE 2 5018 4214 2798 Blue 16
1 PM Sun 91 96 SE 2 6149 4957 3541 Blue 19
2 PM Sun 94 98 S 3 6773 5786 4370 Blue 21
3 PM Sun 96 99 S 6 8433 6099 4683 Blue 22
4 PM Sun 97 99 S 7 8433 6099 4683 Blue 22
5 PM Sun 97 97 SW 8 6462 5458 4042 Blue 20
6 PM Sun 96 96 SW 9 6149 4957 3541 Blue 19
7 PM Sun 94 94 SW 9 5515 4331 2915 Blue 17
8 PM Sun 91 91 SW 9 4343 3980 2564 Blue 14
9 PM Sun 88 88 SW 9 3991 3629 2213 Blue 11
10 PM Sun 86 86 SW 9 3756 3356 1940 Blue 9
11 PM Sun 84 84 SW 9 3521 2788 1372 Blue 7
12 Midnight Mon 82 82 SW 8 2985 2685 1269 Blue 5
1 AM Mon 81 81 S 8 2791 2633 1217 Blue 4
2 AM Mon 79 79 S 8 2687 2470 1054 Blue 2
3 AM Mon 78 78 S 7 2636 2470 1054 Blue 1
4 AM Mon 76 76 S 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 75 75 S 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com