Detailed Predictions for: Oatman Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 1416
LZ Altitude (f): 550
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

16 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 88 88 SW 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 88 88 S 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 91 93 SW 6 2828 2470 1054 Blue 1
9 AM Tue 94 97 SW 6 3039 2879 1463 Blue 5
10 AM Tue 98 104 SW 6 5481 3417 2001 Blue 12
11 AM Tue 101 109 SW 8 9341 6868 5452 Blue 16
12 Noon Tue 104 113 SW 10 13924 9843 8427 White 20
1 PM Tue 106 115 SW 10 14325 11195 9779 White 22
2 PM Tue 108 116 SW 13 14526 11697 10281 White 23
3 PM Tue 108 114 SW 14 14125 10496 9080 White 21
4 PM Tue 110 114 SW 14 14125 10496 9080 White 21
5 PM Tue 110 112 SW 14 11359 9165 7749 Blue 19
6 PM Tue 109 110 SW 16 10025 7686 6270 Blue 17
7 PM Tue 108 108 SW 15 8618 5979 4563 Blue 15
8 PM Tue 105 105 SW 15 6116 3689 2273 Blue 13
9 PM Tue 102 102 SW 14 3774 3142 1726 Blue 10
10 PM Tue 99 99 SW 13 3145 2984 1568 Blue 7
11 PM Tue 97 97 SW 12 3039 2879 1463 Blue 5
12 Midnight Wed 95 95 SW 10 2934 2470 1054 Blue 3
1 AM Wed 93 93 SW 10 2828 2470 1054 Blue 1
2 AM Wed 92 92 SW 10 0 1416 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 90 90 SW 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 89 89 SW 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 87 87 S 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 87 87 S 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 87 87 S 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 88 90 S 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 90 94 S 9 2881 2470 1054 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 93 99 S 10 3145 2984 1568 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 95 103 S 10 4836 3195 1779 Blue 11
12 Noon Wed 98 107 S 12 7848 5406 3990 Blue 14
1 PM Wed 100 109 S 13 9341 6868 5452 Blue 16
2 PM Wed 102 110 SW 13 10025 7686 6270 Blue 17
3 PM Wed 103 109 SW 14 9341 6868 5452 Blue 16
4 PM Wed 104 108 SW 15 8618 5979 4563 Blue 15
5 PM Wed 105 107 SW 15 7848 5406 3990 Blue 14
6 PM Wed 105 106 SW 15 7019 4729 3313 Blue 13
7 PM Wed 104 104 SW 15 5481 3417 2001 Blue 12
8 PM Wed 102 102 SW 15 3774 3142 1726 Blue 10
9 PM Wed 99 99 SW 14 3145 2984 1568 Blue 7
10 PM Wed 97 97 SW 13 3039 2879 1463 Blue 5
11 PM Wed 94 94 SW 12 2881 2470 1054 Blue 2
12 Midnight Thu 92 92 SW 10 0 1416 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 90 90 SW 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 89 89 S 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 88 88 S 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 87 87 S 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 85 85 S 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 85 85 S 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 85 85 S 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 86 86 S 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 88 89 S 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 90 92 S 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 93 96 S 8 2987 2826 1410 Blue 4
12 Noon Thu 96 100 S 9 3198 3037 1621 Blue 8
1 PM Thu 98 103 S 9 4836 3195 1779 Blue 11
2 PM Thu 100 105 SW 10 6116 3689 2273 Blue 13
3 PM Thu 102 106 SW 10 7019 4729 3313 Blue 13
4 PM Thu 104 106 SW 12 7019 4729 3313 Blue 13
5 PM Thu 105 106 SW 13 7019 4729 3313 Blue 13
6 PM Thu 105 105 SW 13 6116 3689 2273 Blue 13
7 PM Thu 104 104 SW 13 5481 3417 2001 Blue 12
8 PM Thu 102 102 SW 12 3774 3142 1726 Blue 10
9 PM Thu 99 99 SW 12 3145 2984 1568 Blue 7
10 PM Thu 97 97 SW 12 3039 2879 1463 Blue 5
11 PM Thu 94 94 SW 10 2881 2470 1054 Blue 2
12 Midnight Fri 92 92 SW 10 0 1416 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 90 90 SW 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 89 89 SW 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 88 88 SW 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 87 87 SW 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 85 85 S 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 85 85 S 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 86 86 S 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 87 88 S 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 89 91 S 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 92 96 S 6 2987 2826 1410 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 95 101 SW 7 3433 3089 1673 Blue 9
12 Noon Fri 98 106 SW 7 7019 4729 3313 Blue 13
1 PM Fri 100 108 SW 8 8618 5979 4563 Blue 15
2 PM Fri 102 110 SW 8 10025 7686 6270 Blue 17
3 PM Fri 103 109 SW 9 9341 6868 5452 Blue 16
4 PM Fri 104 108 SW 9 8618 5979 4563 Blue 15
5 PM Fri 105 107 SW 10 7848 5406 3990 Blue 14
6 PM Fri 105 105 SW 10 6116 3689 2273 Blue 13
7 PM Fri 104 104 SW 10 5481 3417 2001 Blue 12
8 PM Fri 101 101 SW 10 3433 3089 1673 Blue 9
9 PM Fri 99 99 SW 10 3145 2984 1568 Blue 7
10 PM Fri 97 97 SW 10 3039 2879 1463 Blue 5
11 PM Fri 95 95 SW 10 2934 2470 1054 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sat 93 93 SW 10 2828 2470 1054 Blue 1
1 AM Sat 92 92 SW 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 90 90 SW 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 89 89 SW 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 87 87 SW 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 86 86 S 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 85 85 S 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 85 85 S 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 87 88 S 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 89 92 S 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 91 96 SW 9 2987 2826 1410 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 94 100 SW 9 3198 3037 1621 Blue 8
12 Noon Sat 97 104 SW 10 5481 3417 2001 Blue 12
1 PM Sat 99 106 SW 10 7019 4729 3313 Blue 13
2 PM Sat 102 108 SW 10 8618 5979 4563 Blue 15
3 PM Sat 103 107 SW 10 7848 5406 3990 Blue 14
4 PM Sat 104 106 SW 12 7019 4729 3313 Blue 13
5 PM Sat 105 106 SW 13 7019 4729 3313 Blue 13
6 PM Sat 104 104 SW 14 5481 3417 2001 Blue 12
7 PM Sat 102 102 SW 14 3774 3142 1726 Blue 10
8 PM Sat 100 100 SW 14 3198 3037 1621 Blue 8
9 PM Sat 97 97 SW 13 3039 2879 1463 Blue 5
10 PM Sat 95 95 SW 12 2934 2470 1054 Blue 3
11 PM Sat 93 93 SW 12 2828 2470 1054 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sun 91 91 SW 10 0 1416 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 90 90 SW 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 89 89 S 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 88 88 S 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 87 87 S 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 86 86 S 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 85 85 S 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 85 85 S 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 86 86 S 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 87 88 S 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 89 91 S 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 92 95 S 8 2934 2470 1054 Blue 3
12 Noon Sun 95 99 S 8 3145 2984 1568 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 97 101 SW 8 3433 3089 1673 Blue 9
2 PM Sun 99 102 SW 9 3774 3142 1726 Blue 10
3 PM Sun 100 103 SW 9 4836 3195 1779 Blue 11
4 PM Sun 101 103 SW 9 4836 3195 1779 Blue 11
5 PM Sun 102 103 SW 10 4836 3195 1779 Blue 11
6 PM Sun 102 102 SW 10 3774 3142 1726 Blue 10
7 PM Sun 101 101 SW 10 3433 3089 1673 Blue 9
8 PM Sun 98 98 SW 12 3092 2931 1515 Blue 6
9 PM Sun 96 96 SW 12 2987 2826 1410 Blue 4
10 PM Sun 94 94 SW 12 2881 2470 1054 Blue 2
11 PM Sun 92 92 SW 12 0 1416 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 91 91 SW 10 0 1416 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 90 90 SW 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 90 90 SW 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 89 89 SW 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 88 88 SW 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 87 87 S 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com