Detailed Predictions for: Oatman Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 1416
LZ Altitude (f): 550
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 84 84 SW 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 83 83 SW 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 81 81 SW 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 84 86 SW 10 0 1416 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 87 91 SW 10 2957 2470 1054 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 90 95 SW 12 3348 3008 1592 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 94 100 SW 12 6598 5435 4019 Blue 11
1 PM Tue 96 102 SW 12 7958 6050 4634 Blue 13
2 PM Tue 98 103 SW 10 8578 6481 5065 Blue 14
3 PM Tue 99 102 SW 10 7958 6050 4634 Blue 13
4 PM Tue 100 101 SW 12 7295 5744 4328 Blue 12
5 PM Tue 101 101 SW 12 7295 5744 4328 Blue 12
6 PM Tue 100 100 SW 13 6598 5435 4019 Blue 11
7 PM Tue 99 99 SW 14 6095 4850 3434 Blue 10
8 PM Tue 96 96 SW 14 5072 3061 1645 Blue 8
9 PM Tue 95 95 SW 14 3348 3008 1592 Blue 7
10 PM Tue 92 92 SW 14 3011 2510 1094 Blue 4
11 PM Tue 90 90 SW 14 2869 2470 1054 Blue 2
12 Midnight Wed 89 89 SW 13 2523 2470 1054 Blue 1
1 AM Wed 87 87 SW 13 0 1416 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 86 86 SW 13 0 1416 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 86 86 SW 13 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 85 85 SW 12 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 84 84 S 10 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 84 84 S 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 83 83 S 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 83 83 S 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 84 85 S 10 0 1416 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 86 87 S 12 0 1416 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 87 89 S 13 2523 2470 1054 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 88 91 S 15 2957 2470 1054 Blue 3
1 PM Wed 89 92 S 15 3011 2510 1094 Blue 4
2 PM Wed 90 93 S 15 3064 2853 1437 Blue 5
3 PM Wed 90 92 S 15 3011 2510 1094 Blue 4
4 PM Wed 90 91 S 15 2957 2470 1054 Blue 3
5 PM Wed 89 89 S 14 2523 2470 1054 Blue 1
6 PM Wed 89 89 S 14 2523 2470 1054 Blue 1
7 PM Wed 88 88 S 14 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 87 87 S 14 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 85 85 S 14 0 1416 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 84 84 S 12 0 1416 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 84 84 S 10 0 1416 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 83 83 S 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 82 82 S 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 81 81 SW 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 80 80 SW 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 80 80 SW 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 79 79 SW 3 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 79 79 SW 2 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 78 78 SW 2 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 79 79 S 3 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 80 81 S 3 0 1416 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 81 84 S 3 0 1416 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 84 88 S 2 0 1416 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 86 91 S 2 2957 2470 1054 Blue 3
1 PM Thu 88 93 S 2 3064 2853 1437 Blue 5
2 PM Thu 90 94 S 3 3118 2955 1539 Blue 6
3 PM Thu 91 94 S 5 3118 2955 1539 Blue 6
4 PM Thu 93 95 SW 5 3348 3008 1592 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 94 94 SW 6 3118 2955 1539 Blue 6
6 PM Thu 94 94 SW 6 3118 2955 1539 Blue 6
7 PM Thu 93 93 SW 7 3064 2853 1437 Blue 5
8 PM Thu 91 91 SW 7 2957 2470 1054 Blue 3
9 PM Thu 89 89 SW 8 2523 2470 1054 Blue 1
10 PM Thu 88 88 SW 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 87 87 SW 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 86 86 SW 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 85 85 SW 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 84 84 SW 8 0 1416 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 82 82 SW 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 81 81 SW 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 81 81 S 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 80 80 S 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 79 79 S 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 80 80 S 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 81 82 S 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 83 86 S 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 86 90 S 6 2869 2470 1054 Blue 2
12 Noon Fri 89 94 S 6 3118 2955 1539 Blue 6
1 PM Fri 92 97 SW 6 5475 3115 1699 Blue 8
2 PM Fri 94 98 SW 6 5787 3330 1914 Blue 9
3 PM Fri 95 98 SW 6 5787 3330 1914 Blue 9
4 PM Fri 96 98 SW 7 5787 3330 1914 Blue 9
5 PM Fri 96 96 SW 7 5072 3061 1645 Blue 8
6 PM Fri 96 96 SW 7 5072 3061 1645 Blue 8
7 PM Fri 95 95 SW 7 3348 3008 1592 Blue 7
8 PM Fri 93 93 SW 7 3064 2853 1437 Blue 5
9 PM Fri 91 91 SW 7 2957 2470 1054 Blue 3
10 PM Fri 90 90 SW 7 2869 2470 1054 Blue 2
11 PM Fri 88 88 SW 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 87 87 SW 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 85 85 SW 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 84 84 SW 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 83 83 S 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 82 82 S 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 81 81 S 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 81 81 S 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 81 81 S 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 82 82 SE 3 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 83 84 SE 3 0 1416 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 86 89 SE 2 2523 2470 1054 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 89 93 E 2 3064 2853 1437 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 92 96 E 2 5072 3061 1645 Blue 8
1 PM Sat 95 99 SE 2 6095 4850 3434 Blue 10
2 PM Sat 96 100 SE 3 6598 5435 4019 Blue 11
3 PM Sat 98 101 S 3 7295 5744 4328 Blue 12
4 PM Sat 99 101 S 5 7295 5744 4328 Blue 12
5 PM Sat 100 100 SW 6 6598 5435 4019 Blue 11
6 PM Sat 100 100 SW 6 6598 5435 4019 Blue 11
7 PM Sat 98 98 SW 6 5787 3330 1914 Blue 9
8 PM Sat 96 96 SW 6 5072 3061 1645 Blue 8
9 PM Sat 94 94 W 6 3118 2955 1539 Blue 6
10 PM Sat 92 92 W 6 3011 2510 1094 Blue 4
11 PM Sat 91 91 W 6 2957 2470 1054 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sun 89 89 W 6 2523 2470 1054 Blue 1
1 AM Sun 88 88 W 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 86 86 W 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 84 84 NW 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 83 83 NW 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 82 82 NW 3 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 81 81 NW 3 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 81 81 N 3 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 82 82 N 3 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 84 86 NE 3 0 1416 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 87 90 E 3 2869 2470 1054 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 91 96 E 3 5072 3061 1645 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 94 100 SE 3 6598 5435 4019 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 97 103 SE 3 8578 6481 5065 Blue 14
2 PM Sun 99 104 S 5 9246 7170 5754 Blue 15
3 PM Sun 100 104 S 6 9246 7170 5754 Blue 15
4 PM Sun 101 103 S 6 8578 6481 5065 Blue 14
5 PM Sun 101 102 SW 7 7958 6050 4634 Blue 13
6 PM Sun 100 100 SW 7 6598 5435 4019 Blue 11
7 PM Sun 98 98 SW 7 5787 3330 1914 Blue 9
8 PM Sun 96 96 SW 7 5072 3061 1645 Blue 8
9 PM Sun 94 94 SW 7 3118 2955 1539 Blue 6
10 PM Sun 92 92 SW 7 3011 2510 1094 Blue 4
11 PM Sun 90 90 W 7 2869 2470 1054 Blue 2
12 Midnight Mon 88 88 W 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 86 86 SW 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 85 85 SW 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 83 83 SW 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 81 81 SW 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 80 80 S 3 0 1416 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com