Detailed Predictions for: Oatman Mt
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.05140323308282, -113.1360567714253, 1416
LZ Altitude (f): 550
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

2 OCT 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 83 83 SW 6 13 1256 1416 0 White 0
1 AM Sun 80 80 SW 5 12 1256 1416 0 White 0
2 AM Sun 80 80 SSW 5 10 1256 1416 0 White 0
3 AM Sun 78 78 SSW 4 10 1256 1416 0 White 0
4 AM Sun 78 78 SSW 2 6 1256 1416 0 White 0
5 AM Sun 77 77 SW 2 5 1256 1416 0 White 0
6 AM Sun 76 76 S 2 5 1256 1416 0 White 0
7 AM Sun 77 77 SE 2 4 1256 1416 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 79 79 SSE 3 5 1256 1416 0 White 0
9 AM Sun 83 85 SSE 3 6 1256 1416 0 White 0
10 AM Sun 86 89 SE 4 6 1256 1416 0 White 0
11 AM Sun 88 93 ESE 4 9 1256 1416 0 White 0
12 Noon Sun 90 95 SE 4 9 1256 1416 0 White 0
1 PM Sun 92 98 SE 4 10 1256 1416 0 White 0
2 PM Sun 94 98 S 4 10 1256 1416 0 White 0
3 PM Sun 95 98 S 4 10 1256 1416 0 White 0
4 PM Sun 94 95 SSW 4 11 1256 1416 0 White 0
5 PM Sun 94 94 SW 4 11 1256 1416 0 White 0
6 PM Sun 92 92 WSW 4 10 1256 1416 0 White 0
7 PM Sun 90 90 W 4 10 1256 1416 0 White 0
8 PM Sun 87 87 W 4 10 1256 1416 0 White 0
9 PM Sun 86 86 W 4 10 1256 1416 0 White 0
10 PM Sun 84 84 W 4 10 1256 1416 0 White 0
11 PM Sun 83 83 W 4 9 1256 1416 0 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 82 82 WSW 3 9 1256 1416 0 White 0
1 AM Mon 80 80 SW 3 6 1256 1416 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 79 79 SW 3 6 1256 1416 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 78 78 WSW 3 5 1256 1416 0 White 0
4 AM Mon 77 77 NW 3 5 1256 1416 0 White 0
5 AM Mon 76 76 WNW 3 5 1256 1416 0 White 0
6 AM Mon 75 75 NNE 3 5 1256 1416 0 White 0
7 AM Mon 76 76 NE 3 5 1256 1416 0 White 0
8 AM Mon 79 79 ENE 4 6 1256 1416 0 White 0
9 AM Mon 83 85 ENE 4 6 1256 1416 0 White 0
10 AM Mon 86 89 E 4 6 1256 1416 0 White 0
11 AM Mon 89 94 ENE 4 6 1256 1416 0 White 0
12 Noon Mon 92 98 NE 4 8 1256 1416 0 White 0
1 PM Mon 94 99 NE 3 9 1256 1416 0 White 0
2 PM Mon 96 100 NNE 3 9 1256 1416 0 White 0
3 PM Mon 97 100 NNE 4 10 1256 1416 0 White 0
4 PM Mon 97 98 N 4 10 1256 1416 0 White 0
5 PM Mon 96 96 NNW 5 11 1256 1416 0 White 0
6 PM Mon 94 94 NNW 5 12 1256 1416 0 White 0
7 PM Mon 91 91 N 5 12 1256 1416 0 White 0
8 PM Mon 88 88 N 5 13 1256 1416 0 White 0
9 PM Mon 86 86 N 5 13 1256 1416 0 White 0
10 PM Mon 85 85 NE 5 13 1256 1416 0 White 0
11 PM Mon 83 83 NE 5 13 1256 1416 0 White 0
12 Midnight Tue 81 81 NE 5 12 1256 1416 0 White 0
1 AM Tue 79 79 NE 5 10 1256 1416 0 White 0
2 AM Tue 78 78 NE 5 9 1256 1416 0 White 0
3 AM Tue 77 77 NE 5 8 1256 1416 0 White 0
4 AM Tue 76 76 NE 4 8 1256 1416 0 White 0
5 AM Tue 76 76 NE 4 8 1256 1416 0 White 0
6 AM Tue 76 76 NE 4 8 1256 1416 0 White 0
7 AM Tue 77 77 NE 5 9 1256 1416 0 White 0
8 AM Tue 79 79 NE 5 9 1256 1416 0 White 0
9 AM Tue 82 84 ENE 5 9 1256 1416 0 White 0
10 AM Tue 86 89 ENE 5 9 1256 1416 0 White 0
11 AM Tue 89 94 ENE 5 9 1256 1416 0 White 0
12 Noon Tue 92 98 NE 5 10 1256 1416 0 White 0
1 PM Tue 94 100 NNW 4 10 1256 1416 0 White 0
2 PM Tue 95 100 WNW 4 11 1256 1416 0 White 0
3 PM Tue 96 99 WNW 4 12 1256 1416 0 White 0
4 PM Tue 96 98 WNW 5 12 1256 1416 0 White 0
5 PM Tue 95 95 WNW 5 12 1256 1416 0 White 0
6 PM Tue 93 93 W 5 11 1256 1416 0 White 0
7 PM Tue 90 90 WSW 4 10 1256 1416 0 White 0
8 PM Tue 87 87 SW 4 9 1256 1416 0 White 0
9 PM Tue 85 85 SW 5 10 1256 1416 0 White 0
10 PM Tue 83 83 SSW 5 12 1256 1416 0 White 0
11 PM Tue 81 81 SSW 6 13 1256 1416 0 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 79 79 SSW 6 13 1256 1416 0 White 0
1 AM Wed 78 78 S 5 12 1256 1416 0 White 0
2 AM Wed 77 77 S 5 11 1256 1416 0 White 0
3 AM Wed 76 76 S 5 9 1256 1416 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 75 75 SE 4 8 1256 1416 0 White 0
5 AM Wed 75 75 ESE 4 6 1256 1416 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 75 75 ESE 4 6 1256 1416 0 White 0
7 AM Wed 76 76 E 5 8 1256 1416 0 White 0
8 AM Wed 78 78 E 5 9 1256 1416 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 81 83 E 5 9 1256 1416 0 White 0
10 AM Wed 85 88 E 5 10 1256 1416 0 White 0
11 AM Wed 88 92 E 5 10 1256 1416 0 White 0
12 Noon Wed 91 96 SE 5 11 1256 1416 0 White 0
1 PM Wed 93 98 SSW 5 12 1256 1416 0 White 0
2 PM Wed 94 98 WSW 5 12 1256 1416 0 White 0
3 PM Wed 95 98 WSW 5 12 1256 1416 0 White 0
4 PM Wed 96 97 W 5 12 1256 1416 0 White 0
5 PM Wed 95 95 W 5 11 1256 1416 0 White 0
6 PM Wed 93 93 W 5 10 1256 1416 0 White 0
7 PM Wed 90 90 WSW 4 9 1256 1416 0 White 0
8 PM Wed 87 87 WSW 4 9 1256 1416 0 White 0
9 PM Wed 85 85 WSW 4 10 1256 1416 0 White 0
10 PM Wed 83 83 SW 5 10 1256 1416 0 White 0
11 PM Wed 81 81 SW 5 11 1256 1416 0 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 79 79 SSW 5 11 1256 1416 0 White 0
1 AM Thu 78 78 SSE 4 10 1256 1416 0 White 0
2 AM Thu 77 77 ESE 4 9 1256 1416 0 White 0
3 AM Thu 76 76 ESE 4 8 1256 1416 0 White 0
4 AM Thu 74 74 E 4 6 1256 1416 0 White 0
5 AM Thu 74 74 ENE 4 5 1256 1416 0 White 0
6 AM Thu 74 74 ENE 5 6 1256 1416 0 White 0
7 AM Thu 76 76 ENE 5 8 1256 1416 0 White 0
8 AM Thu 78 78 ENE 6 9 1256 1416 0 White 0
9 AM Thu 81 83 ENE 8 10 1256 1416 0 White 0
10 AM Thu 85 88 E 9 10 1256 1416 0 White 0
11 AM Thu 88 93 E 9 11 1256 1416 0 White 0
12 Noon Thu 91 97 E 9 12 1256 1416 0 White 0
1 PM Thu 93 99 ENE 8 12 1256 1416 0 White 0
2 PM Thu 94 99 ENE 6 13 1256 1416 0 White 0
3 PM Thu 95 98 ENE 6 13 1256 1416 0 White 0
4 PM Thu 95 96 ENE 6 13 1256 1416 0 White 0
5 PM Thu 94 94 NE 6 13 1256 1416 0 White 0
6 PM Thu 91 91 NE 6 13 1256 1416 0 White 0
7 PM Thu 88 88 ENE 5 13 1256 1416 0 White 0
8 PM Thu 85 85 ENE 5 13 1256 1416 0 White 0
9 PM Thu 83 83 ENE 6 13 1256 1416 0 White 0
10 PM Thu 81 81 E 8 13 1256 1416 0 White 0
11 PM Thu 80 80 E 9 13 1256 1416 0 White 0
12 Midnight Fri 79 79 E 10 13 1256 1416 0 White 0
1 AM Fri 78 78 ENE 10 13 1256 1416 0 White 0
2 AM Fri 77 77 ENE 10 13 1256 1416 0 White 0
3 AM Fri 76 76 ENE 10 12 1256 1416 0 White 0
4 AM Fri 75 75 ENE 9 12 1256 1416 0 White 0
5 AM Fri 75 75 ENE 9 12 1256 1416 0 White 0
6 AM Fri 75 75 ENE 10 13 1256 1416 0 White 0
7 AM Fri 76 76 ENE 11 14 1256 1416 0 White 0
8 AM Fri 78 78 ENE 12 17 1256 1416 0 White 0
9 AM Fri 81 82 E 13 18 1256 1416 0 White 0
10 AM Fri 85 88 E 14 19 1256 1416 0 White 0
11 AM Fri 88 92 E 14 20 1256 1416 0 White 0
12 Noon Fri 90 95 E 14 21 1256 1416 0 White 0
1 PM Fri 92 97 E 13 21 1256 1416 0 White 0
2 PM Fri 93 97 E 12 21 1256 1416 0 White 0
3 PM Fri 94 97 E 11 21 1256 1416 0 White 0
4 PM Fri 93 94 E 11 20 1256 1416 0 White 0
5 PM Fri 92 92 E 10 19 1256 1416 0 White 0
6 PM Fri 90 90 E 9 17 1256 1416 0 White 0
7 PM Fri 87 87 ENE 8 14 1256 1416 0 White 0
8 PM Fri 84 84 ENE 8 13 1256 1416 0 White 0
9 PM Fri 82 82 ENE 8 13 1256 1416 0 White 0
10 PM Fri 80 80 ENE 9 13 1256 1416 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com