NEWS:

January 24, 2008: This site is running the code developed by Tad Hurst.

Why not submit your favorite site? I need site name, lat, long, LZ and launch altitudes and the zipcode.

- Alan

Sounding

Station:

KTUS (alt)

Date/Time:

25 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Site
Name
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
South Mountain E 7 7149 E 7 7912 E 6 7912 E 8 8528 E 12 9931 E 15 10601
Oatman Mt NE 7 4673 W 7 5433 SW 5 5654 E 9 5874 NE 12 9133 E 15 9437
Shaw Butte SW 6 4309 NE 7 4752 E 7 4973 NE 7 4973 NE 9 7914 NE 12 7914
The Y NE 10 5859 S 8 6488 SE 9 6835 NE 7 6488 E 10 9248 E 9 9622
Phoenix Regional N 6 5118 NW 7 6031 SE 5 6031 N 8 6957 E 9 9306 E 14 9911
Humbolt NE 9 6514 SW 9 6514 E 8 6200 E 7 6514 NE 9 8965 E 9 9345
Miller Canyon SW 10 6953 S 13 6953 S 12 6953 SE 8 7294 SE 13 7583 SE 12 7679
Box Canyon W 10 7952 S 10 8333 SE 9 8333 E 9 8333 E 13 8872 E 15 8966
Mustang Mountain W 12 7172 S 10 7814 SE 10 7814 E 8 7172 E 12 8958 E 13 9067
Whetstone Mountain W 12 8058 S 12 8058 SE 12 8058 E 9 8058 E 13 9130 E 14 9130
Mt Lemmon SW 7 5439 S 12 5755 SE 12 5755 SE 9 5439 SE 14 6047 S 13 6144
A Mountain NW 9 7985 SE 8 8597 SE 10 8293 E 9 8597 E 13 10921 E 14 10921
Rainbow Valley NE 6 5591 NW 8 6033 E 5 6033 E 7 8232 NE 10 9844 E 14 10144
Pinal Peak W 7 3516 SE 8 3516 E 12 2872 E 10 3834 E 15 5154 E 16 5850
Harquahala NW 9 1562 SE 8 1562 SE 7 4195 NW 8 4893 E 9 5840 E 10 5840
El Tiro Gliderport NW 9 6386 SE 8 8285 SE 8 8594 E 8 8594 E 10 10130 E 13 10813

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com