NEWS:

January 24, 2008: This site is running the code developed by Tad Hurst.

Why not submit your favorite site? I need site name, lat, long, LZ and launch altitudes and the zipcode.

- Alan

Sounding

Station:

 KTUS (alt)

Date/Time:

 13 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

 NOAA Digital Forecast
error getting data for coordinate: 31.7681,-110.4589
Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon
Site
Name		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch
South Mountain E 7 2249 E 6 2708 E 9 2607 E 6 3118 NE 10 2708 NE 6 2607
Oatman Mt NE 9 3428 NE 6 3428 NE 10 3428 NE 6 3885 NE 10 3785 NE 6 3428
Shaw Butte SE 2 2342 NE 2 2745 E 5 3077 NE 2 3077 NE 5 3077 NE 2 2977
The Y W 9 2903 NE 8 1551 NE 12 2222 NE 10 5596 NE 14 3859 N 12 4739
Phoenix Regional E 5 3583 SE 5 3921 E 6 3821 NW 5 4021 E 6 3821 E 5 3583
Humbolt SW 10 478 S 8 739 NE 7 478 SW 9 2473 N 13 999 N 8 1257
Miller Canyon NW 12 3346 S 7 3644 SE 10 3495 W 9 3644 N 8 3495 W 8 3942
Box Canyon NW 14 4924 W 7 5356 SE 14 5212 NW 9 5500 NW 9 5068 SW 7 5500
Mustang Mountain NW 13 4916 S 6 5205 E 10 4916 NW 8 5205 E 7 4916 SW 6 5349
Mt Lemmon NW 10 1945 W 8 2096 SE 13 2096 W 9 2247 W 9 2096 W 9 2548
A Mountain SE 10 3652 SE 7 4909 E 13 5781 SE 7 5781 N 6 4247 N 6 6632
Rainbow Valley E 5 3794 E 2 4013 E 6 4013 E 3 4213 NE 6 4113 E 3 3794
Pinal Peak E 13 0 SE 10 417 E 18 0 E 13 1387 NE 17 0 E 14 0
Harquahala W 12 0 SE 9 0 E 14 0 W 12 362 N 13 0 NE 10 0
El Tiro Gliderport SE 8 3263 SE 7 4002 SE 10 4002 SE 6 4250 N 7 3752 N 6 4250

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com