NEWS:

January 24, 2008: This site is running the code developed by Tad Hurst.

Why not submit your favorite site? I need site name, lat, long, LZ and launch altitudes and the zipcode.

- Alan

Sounding

Station:

KTUS (alt)

Date/Time:

24 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu
Site
Name
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
South Mountain W 10 7654 W 13 8268 W 12 9442 W 9 10441 W 12 10441 W 9 8363
Oatman Mt SW 12 7681 W 12 8364 W 12 9330 W 9 10471 SW 14 9768 SW 8 8922
Shaw Butte W 10 7708 W 12 7988 W 10 8862 SW 8 11084 W 10 9986 W 7 8266
The Y W 13 8258 W 14 8671 W 12 9287 SW 13 9693 SW 15 9287 SW 13 8465
Phoenix Regional W 8 7922 W 10 8540 W 10 9615 W 7 11906 W 10 10823 W 8 8258
Humbolt W 16 6017 W 16 6966 W 14 8079 SW 13 9117 W 14 8705 W 12 6966
Miller Canyon NW 13 3254 NW 12 4491 N 9 6035 N 8 6679 NW 8 6252 NW 8 4946
Box Canyon NW 12 6677 NW 12 6888 NW 9 7933 W 8 9166 W 9 8756 N 8 7098
Mustang Mountain W 12 5202 NW 13 6750 NW 10 8013 W 8 9042 W 9 8219 NW 9 6963
Whetstone Mountain NW 14 5114 NW 14 6084 NW 10 7183 NW 8 8031 W 10 7608 NW 9 6084
Mt Lemmon NW 14 2735 NW 13 3543 NW 13 4427 SW 9 5298 NW 12 5081 NW 10 2950
A Mountain NW 13 8080 NW 10 8184 NW 9 9781 N 6 10593 NW 8 10593 NW 7 8184
Rainbow Valley W 9 8740 W 13 9019 W 10 9888 W 7 12109 W 12 12109 W 7 9296
Pinal Peak W 16 4921 W 18 5134 W 16 5768 W 14 5977 W 15 6394 NW 13 4298
Harquahala S 14 4741 W 13 5252 W 12 6316 SW 10 7804 SW 14 7597 W 10 5345
El Tiro Gliderport NW 10 7699 NW 9 7699 NW 8 8898 NW 6 11290 W 9 11088 NW 8 7983

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com