NEWS:

January 24, 2008: This site is running the code developed by Tad Hurst.

Why not submit your favorite site? I need site name, lat, long, LZ and launch altitudes and the zipcode.

- Alan

Sounding

Station:

KTUS (alt)

Date/Time:

18 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
Site
Name
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
South Mountain W 9 5493 SW 8 5983 W 10 5751 E 8 5493 NE 8 6846 W 8 6846
Oatman Mt W 12 3524 W 8 3524 NW 10 6753 NE 10 5555 NE 12 7213 W 8 7213
Shaw Butte W 8 3387 W 7 5192 SW 9 5192 NE 6 5192 NE 7 7215 SW 7 7215
The Y W 13 4636 W 12 4699 NW 15 4699 N 12 4699 N 10 5747 W 10 5747
Phoenix Regional W 9 4105 W 8 6911 W 8 7140 N 8 6911 NE 7 8043 NW 7 8043
Humbolt SW 12 3295 SW 12 3553 NW 12 3553 N 12 4200 NE 10 4618 SW 9 4618
Miller Canyon SW 24 3348 SW 8 3744 W 13 3348 W 10 3744 NW 10 4888 W 14 5107
Box Canyon W 18 5908 W 12 5908 NW 13 5696 E 8 5908 E 9 6750 W 12 6958
Mustang Mountain SW 22 5431 W 10 5749 W 14 5431 N 10 5749 E 8 6387 W 13 6597
Whetstone Mountain W 21 4894 W 12 4894 W 15 4894 E 9 4894 E 9 6133 W 14 6348
Mt Lemmon SW 18 1814 W 8 2217 W 15 1814 W 14 2217 NW 12 5205 W 14 5422
A Mountain W 13 7014 NW 10 7014 NW 12 7014 N 8 7014 N 8 8236 NW 8 8600
Rainbow Valley W 9 4767 W 8 6447 W 9 7135 N 8 4767 NE 8 8265 W 8 8265
Pinal Peak W 15 1802 W 14 1971 W 16 1971 NE 15 1857 NE 13 2743 W 15 3133
Harquahala NW 16 535 W 12 2657 NW 18 2657 N 13 2285 NW 10 3768 W 12 3768
El Tiro Gliderport W 10 7298 NW 8 7378 NW 9 7298 N 9 7298 N 8 7650 NW 7 7821

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com