NEWS:

January 24, 2008: This site is running the code developed by Tad Hurst.

Why not submit your favorite site? I need site name, lat, long, LZ and launch altitudes and the zipcode.

- Alan

Sounding

Station:

 KTUS (alt)

Date/Time:

 25 JAN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

 NOAA Digital Forecast
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Site
Name		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch
South Mountain SSW 21 0 WSW 13 261 ENE 9 2150 E 8 3425 SW 9 3425 S 6 2789
Oatman Mt SW 20 0 SW 13 0 E 12 0 NE 10 0 S 10 0 S 3 0
Shaw Butte SW 17 0 SW 9 0 E 7 0 E 6 0 S 7 0 W 3 0
The Y S 18 0 S 12 0 E 10 2604 ENE 14 4742 S 15 3677 ESE 10 3677
Phoenix Regional S 20 0 WSW 13 0 ENE 9 0 E 8 84 SSW 12 84 WNW 5 0
Humbolt SSW 23 0 SSW 10 0 NE 6 260 NE 6 4024 SW 8 3377 SSW 5 3377
Miller Canyon SW 35 1660 SW 22 0 ESE 10 2985 ESE 9 4498 SSW 15 5135 SW 12 4924
Box Canyon S 26 2939 SW 20 245 E 14 3800 SE 14 5267 SW 17 5679 SW 9 5267
Mustang Mountain SSW 28 2765 SW 21 0 E 12 3416 ESE 12 4903 SSW 16 5735 WSW 10 5321
Whetstone Mountain SSW 29 2836 WSW 23 0 E 14 3789 ESE 13 5288 SSW 18 6129 SW 12 5500
Mt Lemmon SW 31 65 SW 20 0 E 14 2488 E 16 3999 SW 17 4636 SW 12 3141
A Mountain SSW 23 2882 WSW 13 1156 E 10 3734 ESE 12 5401 SSW 14 6020 NW 8 4779
Rainbow Valley SW 17 27 WSW 14 27 ENE 8 27 E 7 27 SW 9 27 W 3 27
Pinal Peak SSW 22 0 SW 20 0 E 15 706 ENE 14 2124 SW 15 2761 SW 12 2124
Harquahala S 21 0 SW 10 0 E 14 1849 SE 12 3141 SE 13 2712 SE 9 2497
El Tiro Gliderport SSW 24 1475 SW 13 821 E 7 2125 ESE 10 4030 SSW 15 4238 NNW 7 2981
Mt Ord SSW 21 1329 SSW 17 0 ENE 12 1748 ENE 13 3215 SSW 14 3431 S 9 3000

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com