NEWS:

Feb 16, 2021
- Problems getting data from National Weather Service began on Feb 11 impacting operation of the Soaring Predictor software.
The service seems to be working again at about 75% as of this morning, Feb 16.


Backup data is being sourced from WeatherAPI.com however, their free service is limited to 3 days. If you see a three day forecast for your favorite site, thank the WeatherAPI folks. The full 5-day forecasts are receiving input data from the National Weather service (thank them too :-).

Sounding

Station:

KTUS (alt)

Date/Time:

1 AUG 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
Site
Name
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
South Mountain SW 9 6070 W 6 7125 W 8 7780 W 9 7780 WSW 9 6916 WSW 9 5219
Oatman Mt SW 5 5794 SSW 5 6836 WSW 8 7251 SW 12 7251 SW 11 6212 SSW 9 4511
Shaw Butte WSW 5 4748 SSW 5 5799 W 6 6423 WSW 8 6423 SSW 6 5591 WSW 6 3892
The Y SW 11 6705 W 12 8170 W 13 8583 SW 13 8788 SSW 14 7963 SSW 13 6705
Phoenix Regional WSW 5 5785 ESE 5 6831 WNW 6 7247 WNW 8 7247 S 6 6206 W 6 4500
Humbolt WSW 5 6722 W 8 7567 WSW 10 8404 WSW 10 8611 WSW 8 7778 WSW 8 5906
Miller Canyon W 9 5226 NNE 8 5446 NNW 10 5880 N 8 6526 NNE 6 5446 S 5 3338
Box Canyon W 17 6634 NNW 9 7264 NNW 9 7681 NW 11 8095 N 10 6634 NNW 8 5281
Mustang Mountain WNW 18 6255 N 10 6680 NNW 9 7103 NNW 13 7732 N 11 6255 NW 9 4347
Whetstone Mountain NW 9 8392 NNW 10 8809 NNW 13 8809
Mt Lemmon NW 12 3742 NNW 8 4404 NNW 10 5057 NNW 10 5491 ESE 9 3964 SE 6 2661
A Mountain W 11 6728 NW 9 7152 NW 9 7595 NW 10 8019 NNW 6 6516 NW 6 5239
Rainbow Valley W 5 5348 W 5 6614 W 6 7237 W 9 7237 WSW 8 6406 WSW 6 4707
Pinal Peak W 11 4780 NW 11 4780 WNW 12 6048 WNW 13 6256 W 12 4780 W 11 3153
Harquahala WSW 8 5674 WNW 9 6729 W 10 7355 SSE 10 7355 S 11 6519 SE 10 4331
El Tiro Gliderport NW 11 5751 NW 11 6599 NW 14 7230
Mt Ord WSW 10 6117 W 12 6546 W 13 8024 W 13 8024 WSW 12 6970 WSW 11 5469

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com