NEWS:

January 24, 2008: This site is running the code developed by Tad Hurst.

Why not submit your favorite site? I need site name, lat, long, LZ and launch altitudes and the zipcode.

- Alan

Sounding

Station:

KTUS (alt)

Date/Time:

26 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
Site
Name
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
South Mountain E 6 2052 SW 6 1298 W 14 2052 W 10 1862 NW 14 1862 E 14 1298
Oatman Mt W 6 3050 SW 8 2188 W 12 2341 NW 10 2341 NW 12 2341 NE 12 2494
Shaw Butte NE 2 2403 E 2 1645 W 8 2334 W 6 1906 NW 7 1906 N 6 1906
The Y S 10 2277 S 13 867 W 15 375 W 14 0 N 13 1347 NE 14 1347
Phoenix Regional W 5 3248 SE 5 2718 W 10 3248 W 9 2718 NW 9 2486 E 9 2718
Humbolt S 10 0 S 13 0 SW 17 0 W 14 0 NE 18 0 SE 16 0
Miller Canyon SW 13 7468 SW 16 4954 W 20 5106 W 17 4757 S 15 3336 S 20 0
Box Canyon SW 12 9172 W 15 6379 W 17 6516 NW 16 5841 N 14 4116 N 17 3371
Mustang Mountain S 12 6804 SW 15 6478 W 17 6657 NW 17 5187 SW 14 1979 SW 17 1102
Whetstone Mountain S 12 6759 SW 15 6280 W 20 6585 NW 18 4765 NE 15 3156 NE 20 829
Mt Lemmon SE 12 3410 W 16 2646 W 18 3215 W 17 27 NW 14 0 NW 17 0
A Mountain W 7 7542 W 10 5907 W 12 5907 NW 12 3023 NW 12 2547 NW 14 2120
Rainbow Valley W 5 3649 W 6 3368 W 10 3437 W 8 3016 NW 9 3016 NE 9 3368
Pinal Peak SE 16 1504 SW 18 0 W 23 0 W 22 0 W 23 0 E 25 0
Harquahala SW 10 0 S 15 0 W 21 0 NW 22 0 NW 26 0 E 22 0
El Tiro Gliderport W 8 4042 W 10 2722 W 13 3103 NW 12 2120 N 10 2120 N 13 1733

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com