NEWS:

January 24, 2008: This site is running the code developed by Tad Hurst.

Why not submit your favorite site? I need site name, lat, long, LZ and launch altitudes and the zipcode.

- Alan

Sounding

Station:

KTUS (alt)

Date/Time:

21 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu
Site
Name
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
South Mountain W 13 4920 W 12 6854 W 13 7919 W 12 8535 W 15 8125 W 14 6425
Oatman Mt SW 10 0 W 9 0 W 12 0 W 12 0 SW 14 0 S 14 0
Shaw Butte W 12 0 W 10 0 W 9 0 W 10 0 W 12 0 SW 13 0
The Y W 12 8844 W 12 8844 N 8 9669 SW 10 10489 W 13 10080 SW 13 9257
Phoenix Regional W 12 0 W 12 0 W 10 0 N 8 0 W 13 0 W 13 0
Humbolt W 14 5711 W 10 10043 W 10 10856 W 13 12059 W 13 10654 SW 14 9834
Miller Canyon SW 9 3709 SW 9 8417 E 8 9673 E 17 9466 N 12 8838 NW 13 7995
Box Canyon S 14 7910 W 15 9165 NW 12 10584 E 9 10785 NW 15 10180 NW 14 9165
Mustang Mountain S 13 4910 W 14 9017 SW 8 10651 W 13 10651 NW 15 10045 NW 14 9017
Whetstone Mountain S 14 5210 NW 15 9382 NW 8 10824 SE 12 10824 NW 16 10208 NW 15 9171
Mt Lemmon W 14 6608 NW 15 7891 NW 12 9152 S 21 9361 NW 18 8733 W 16 7679
A Mountain NW 12 6611 NW 13 7897 NW 10 8929 W 13 9337 NW 16 8517 W 13 7472
Rainbow Valley W 13 0 W 12 0 W 12 0 W 10 0 W 14 0 SW 13 0
Pinal Peak W 14 6785 W 14 7206 W 14 8848 W 14 9050 NW 14 8238 W 16 7206
Harquahala S 12 2154 W 9 8013 W 9 9049 W 14 10069 W 14 9667 S 13 8636
El Tiro Gliderport E 12 2854 NW 12 4155 NW 8 5226 NW 9 5863 NW 16 5226 W 15 4155

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com