NEWS:

January 24, 2008: This site is running the code developed by Tad Hurst.

Why not submit your favorite site? I need site name, lat, long, LZ and launch altitudes and the zipcode.

- Alan

Sounding

Station:

KTUS (alt)

Date/Time:

18 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue
Site
Name
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
South Mountain E 9 2044 SE 9 2606 W 20 269 NW 8 376 NW 7 1006 NE 6 1405
Oatman Mt NE 15 2852 SW 13 3104 W 20 1363 NW 8 1570 NE 9 1713 N 7 2221
Shaw Butte E 5 2149 E 8 2275 W 17 431 W 6 772 NE 6 990 NE 6 1248
The Y NE 8 4621 S 14 3689 W 20 0 NW 14 0 NW 8 0 N 10 933
Phoenix Regional E 9 2866 SE 8 3370 W 17 1280 W 6 1280 NE 6 1694 NW 5 1885
Humbolt NE 6 4152 S 13 4152 SW 22 0 N 9 0 NE 7 0 N 10 1527
Miller Canyon E 8 2912 SW 16 4093 SW 31 0 W 21 0 NE 9 1814 NW 14 3080
Box Canyon E 15 4183 SW 16 5107 W 22 0 W 15 0 SE 9 447 NW 12 3288
Mustang Mountain E 10 3890 SW 16 5111 SW 26 0 W 15 0 NE 10 717 NW 12 3561
Whetstone Mountain E 12 4549 SW 16 5596 SW 28 0 W 17 0 NE 10 814 N 13 4141
Mt Lemmon E 9 3796 SW 16 4660 SW 24 0 NW 22 0 S 10 1532 E 16 2153
A Mountain SE 14 4160 SE 12 6716 SW 15 340 NW 9 340 E 9 1464 NW 9 1976
Rainbow Valley E 8 2939 E 8 3442 W 18 1460 W 6 1700 NE 6 1975 N 3 2070
Pinal Peak NE 13 1408 SW 12 2411 W 18 0 W 14 0 E 9 0 N 12 0
Harquahala E 7 1870 S 15 1121 W 24 0 NW 14 0 NW 9 0 N 10 0
El Tiro Gliderport SE 9 2616 SW 10 4541 W 15 724 NW 9 724 N 8 1098 NW 8 1852

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com