SoaringPredictor

NEWS:

January 24, 2008: This site is running the code developed by Tad Hurst.

Why not submit your favorite site? I need site name, lat, long, LZ and launch altitudes and the zipcode.

- Alan

Sounding
Station:	KTUS (alt)
Date/Time:	15 OCT 2018
Temp/Wind data from:	NOAA Digital Forecast

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

Site
Name

Wind

Above
Launch

Wind

Above
Launch

Wind

Above
Launch

Wind

Above
Launch

Wind

Above
Launch

Wind

Above
Launch

South Mountain

E 23

2401

E 23

243

E 14

2163

E 13

3049

E 10

3906

E 15

3906

Oatman Mt

N 16

NE 23

NE 16

NE 9

742

E 14

925

Shaw Butte

E 17

E 20

E 12

NE 10

NE 8

196

E 12

The Y

NE 18

1143

NE 16

E 8

1687

NE 8

2918

NE 8

4550

E 16

4762

Phoenix Regional

NE 16

E 15

E 12

E 10

E 6

449

E 9

633

Humbolt

E 16

830

E 22

E 13

1101

NE 7

3385

NE 10

4035

SE 20

4465

Miller Canyon

SE 16

4722

SE 16

3794

SE 17

4898

E 14

5305

E 12

6688

E 23

5802

Box Canyon

E 15

4072

SE 22

2960

E 22

4706

E 15

5128

E 13

5758

E 24

5340

Mustang Mountain

E 16

4085

E 18

1791

E 21

4330

E 12

4966

E 10

5598

E 23

5177

Whetstone Mountain

SE 20

4812

E 22

1614

E 21

5243

E 15

5886

E 12

6525

E 25

6098

Mt Lemmon

SE 14

2882

SE 17

3013

SE 15

3262

SE 12

3777

E 28

3570

A Mountain

NE 13

3363

E 20

1203

E 18

4006

E 14

4430

E 10

5063

E 21

4853

Rainbow Valley

NE 14

E 17

E 13

E 12

NE 6

565

E 9

382

Pinal Peak

E 18

E 29

E 26

1524

E 16

2419

E 30

2640

Harquahala

E 14

E 25

E 20

158

E 16

1960

NE 9

3736

E 22

3949

El Tiro Gliderport

N 13

2265

E 17

951

E 15

2935

E 12

3363

E 9

3790

E 21

4215

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only. No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates. These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying. Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released. If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid. Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST). If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level. We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes. Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate. Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink. It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website. Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature.

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun. When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air. The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals. A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable. Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates.

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com