NEWS:

January 24, 2008: This site is running the code developed by Tad Hurst.

Why not submit your favorite site? I need site name, lat, long, LZ and launch altitudes and the zipcode.

- Alan

Sounding

Station:

KTUS (alt)

Date/Time:

26 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
Site
Name
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
South Mountain S 18 5720 SW 14 689 W 8 5809 W 8 8615 W 7 10712 W 8 11792
Oatman Mt SW 21 2527 W 14 1282 W 8 6832 SW 10 8316 SW 9 11177 SW 13 11177
Shaw Butte S 14 5284 SW 14 718 W 7 6118 SW 7 7455 SW 6 10531 SW 8 10878
The Y S 22 3393 SW 16 0 W 12 4210 SW 12 8070 S 15 11052 S 15 11052
Phoenix Regional S 18 6963 W 13 1405 W 6 6963 W 6 8464 W 5 11708 S 6 12050
Humbolt S 23 2807 SW 20 0 SW 12 3406 SW 9 4713 SW 9 9066 SW 12 10196
Miller Canyon S 31 8535 SW 25 7867 W 16 5703 SW 12 9160 SW 15 9982 SW 17 10186
Box Canyon S 28 8402 W 21 6371 W 13 6371 W 9 10463 SW 12 11456 SW 14 11654
Mustang Mountain SW 28 7361 SW 23 6245 W 13 3924 W 8 10332 S 12 11332 SW 15 11332
Whetstone Mountain SW 30 7889 W 24 6848 W 14 6082 W 10 10319 SW 14 11333 SW 16 11534
Mt Lemmon SW 25 3796 W 20 136 W 16 651 W 15 6384 W 15 10113 W 16 10422
A Mountain SW 18 6921 W 15 5532 NW 9 5873 NW 6 10476 SW 7 14106 W 9 14106
Rainbow Valley SW 18 6958 SW 14 2417 W 8 7155 W 8 10891 W 7 11942 W 9 12322
Pinal Peak S 25 2066 W 18 0 W 13 1545 W 12 6189 W 10 8696 W 14 9097
Harquahala S 24 0 W 16 0 W 9 2645 SW 12 6337 SW 13 7444 S 15 8067
El Tiro Gliderport S 20 6776 W 16 4599 NW 8 6268 W 6 9990 W 8 11689 W 9 13029

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com