NEWS:

Feb 16, 2021
- Problems getting data from National Weather Service began on Feb 11 impacting operation of the Soaring Predictor software.
The service seems to be working again at about 75% as of this morning, Feb 16.


Backup data is being sourced from WeatherAPI.com however, their free service is limited to 3 days. If you see a three day forecast for your favorite site, thank the WeatherAPI folks. The full 5-day forecasts are receiving input data from the National Weather service (thank them too :-).

Sounding

Station:

KTUS (alt)

Date/Time:

20 MAY 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
Site
Name
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
South Mountain SW 20 8570 WSW 14 7613 WSW 11 8332 W 10 8570 W 10 9772 W 9 10923
Oatman Mt SSW 24 10933 SSW 18 9253 SSW 16 10767
Shaw Butte SW 20 8367 WSW 11 7049 SW 10 8367 WSW 9 8838 WSW 10 9709 WSW 8 10763
The Y SSW 21 9413 SSW 16 8129 SSE 15 9326
Phoenix Regional SW 21 9910 SW 13 8967 WSW 10 9676 WNW 10 9910 WNW 9 11092 WNW 8 11921
Humbolt WSW 28 10201 S 17 9124 SSW 13 9589
Miller Canyon SW 29 6880 SSW 23 6880 SW 16 7078 W 16 8969 W 14 7714 WNW 11 12691
Box Canyon SW 26 8391 WSW 21 8258 WSW 16 8391 W 16 9006 WNW 12 9006 NW 11 13499
Mustang Mountain SW 28 8285 WSW 23 8285 SW 17 8372 W 16 8546 WNW 14 8546 NW 13 9738
Whetstone Mountain SW 28 11310 SW 22 12510 WSW 17 8367
Mt Lemmon SW 29 5255 WSW 21 5073 WSW 17 5255 W 16 5346 WNW 13 5592 WNW 11 9169
A Mountain SW 21 10701 SW 16 9741 WSW 14 10041 W 13 10701 WNW 10 11025 NW 10 11557
Rainbow Valley SW 21 9662 WSW 14 8828 WSW 10 9427 W 8 9896 W 9 10836 W 8 11830
Pinal Peak SW 27 4772 WSW 20 3573 WSW 19 4772 WSW 16 5741 W 17 6082 WSW 16 6722
Harquahala SSW 19 10556 SSW 15 8707 S 13 10556
El Tiro Gliderport SW 23 10613 WSW 16 9254 WSW 13 10022 W 11 10363 WNW 10 10613 NW 10 11594
Mt Ord WSW 28 17441 S 17 14207 SSW 13 15646

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com