NEWS:

Feb 16, 2021
- Problems getting data from National Weather Service began on Feb 11 impacting operation of the Soaring Predictor software.
The service seems to be working again at about 75% as of this morning, Feb 16.


Backup data is being sourced from WeatherAPI.com however, their free service is limited to 3 days. If you see a three day forecast for your favorite site, thank the WeatherAPI folks. The full 5-day forecasts are receiving input data from the National Weather service (thank them too :-).

Sounding

Station:

KTUS (alt)

Date/Time:

2 OCT 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
Site
Name
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
South Mountain SE 5 4809 E 8 5022 ENE 6 5022 E 6 4597 ENE 9 4597 E 13 4384
Oatman Mt SE 4 0 NNW 5 0 NE 5 0 E 5 0 E 9 0 E 14 0
Shaw Butte SSE 4 0 ESE 5 0 W 5 0 W 5 0 E 6 0 E 10 0
The Y SSE 11 7608 N 12 7608 W 11 7817 SSW 10 7817 SSE 12 7608 ESE 14 7192
Phoenix Regional ESE 4 0 N 6 0 NW 5 0 NW 6 0 ENE 9 0 E 12 0
Humbolt SSE 5 6977 N 8 6312 NNE 5 6312 NE 4 6767 NNE 5 6556 ESE 8 4105
Miller Canyon ESE 7 9662 E 7 9868 SSW 13 9662
Box Canyon SE 11 7043 SSE 10 7459 WNW 10 6623 NNW 10 6413 E 14 6203 ESE 20 5780
Mustang Mountain ESE 11 6887 E 9 6887 W 9 6043 NNE 9 6043 E 14 5521 E 18 3307
Whetstone Mountain ESE 12 6978 E 11 7193 W 11 5709 NE 11 5339 E 16 3122 E 20 2776
Mt Lemmon SE 13 4803 SE 11 4803 ESE 11 4021 ESE 11 3467 E 14 2204 E 20 1420
A Mountain SE 5 9910 ESE 8 9301 SSW 13 9708
Rainbow Valley E 3 0 E 4 0 WNW 5 0 E 5 0 E 8 0 E 12 0
Pinal Peak WSW 11 9179 W 9 8573 W 11 8370
Harquahala SE 8 4911 E 9 3455 W 8 4911 E 9 4911 E 11 4911 E 16 2783
El Tiro Gliderport SW 5 3736 WNW 4 3091 NW 14 3521
Mt Ord SW 10 12387 NNE 8 11986 W 16 12187

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com