NEWS:

Feb 16, 2021
- Problems getting data from National Weather Service began on Feb 11 impacting operation of the Soaring Predictor software.
The service seems to be working again at about 75% as of this morning, Feb 16.


Backup data is being sourced from WeatherAPI.com however, their free service is limited to 3 days. If you see a three day forecast for your favorite site, thank the WeatherAPI folks. The full 5-day forecasts are receiving input data from the National Weather service (thank them too :-).

Sounding

Station:

KTUS (alt)

Date/Time:

12 MAY 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon
Site
Name
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
South Mountain SSE 4 11959 W 8 12341 WSW 12 12524 WSW 13 11483 WSW 14 7200 WSW 11 5199
Oatman Mt WSW 8 10717 WSW 10 12508 SW 13 12508 SSW 16 9106 WSW 13 3310 WSW 10 4064
Shaw Butte WSW 6 11429 SW 5 12375 WSW 10 12375 SW 11 9663 SW 13 4935 SW 8 4254
The Y WSW 11 14785 S 11 18664 SW 16 18664
Phoenix Regional SE 4 12247 W 6 13428 WSW 11 13609 SW 14 10929 WSW 13 6736 W 10 5060
Humbolt SW 10 9700 S 9 10712 SW 12 10712 SSW 13 8544 SSW 16 4363 WSW 11 840
Miller Canyon ESE 9 12134 SSE 10 13420 SW 16 11325 SW 16 11325 SW 17 8659 W 14 8397
Box Canyon W 11 13964 SW 12 17653 SW 17 17279 SW 19 12425 SW 19 10508 W 16 9781
Mustang Mountain W 10 12598 S 12 13454 WSW 18 13454 SW 19 11583 SW 20 10062 W 17 9925
Whetstone Mountain SE 11 12376 S 13 14041 WSW 19 12376 SW 21 10590 SW 21 9878 W 18 9878
Mt Lemmon WNW 10 10794 WNW 13 13801 WSW 17 10794 SW 18 10007 SW 18 6870 W 16 5904
A Mountain WNW 6 12941 WSW 9 13583 WSW 14 13262 SW 16 12357 SW 16 11792 W 12 9480
Rainbow Valley W 5 11114 W 8 13375 WSW 13 13375 SW 16 10217 SW 13 5270 WSW 10 4552
Pinal Peak W 10 8361 E 11 9475 W 17 9475 WSW 17 8084 WSW 18 7055 W 16 4426
Harquahala S 9 9249 S 11 10028 S 13 9249 S 18 5971 SSW 17 854 SW 10 1577
El Tiro Gliderport NW 6 12515 WNW 9 13692 WSW 16 13692 SW 16 12699 SW 16 10267 W 11 8778
Mt Ord WSW 12 10621 WSW 12 12467 WSW 13 12467 SW 16 8718 SSW 17 7504 WSW 13 4633

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com