NEWS:

January 24, 2008: This site is running the code developed by Tad Hurst.

Why not submit your favorite site? I need site name, lat, long, LZ and launch altitudes and the zipcode.

- Alan

Sounding

Station:

KTUS (alt)

Date/Time:

15 OCT 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Site
Name
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
South Mountain E 23 2401 E 23 243 E 14 2163 E 13 3049 E 10 3906 E 15 3906
Oatman Mt N 16 0 NE 23 0 NE 16 0 NE 16 0 NE 9 742 E 14 925
Shaw Butte E 17 0 E 20 0 E 12 0 NE 10 0 NE 8 196 E 12 12
The Y NE 18 1143 NE 16 0 E 8 1687 NE 8 2918 NE 8 4550 E 16 4762
Phoenix Regional NE 16 0 E 15 0 E 12 0 E 10 79 E 6 449 E 9 633
Humbolt E 16 830 E 22 0 E 13 1101 NE 7 3385 NE 10 4035 SE 20 4465
Miller Canyon SE 16 4722 SE 16 3794 SE 17 4898 E 14 5305 E 12 6688 E 23 5802
Box Canyon E 15 4072 SE 22 2960 E 22 4706 E 15 5128 E 13 5758 E 24 5340
Mustang Mountain E 16 4085 E 18 1791 E 21 4330 E 12 4966 E 10 5598 E 23 5177
Whetstone Mountain SE 20 4812 E 22 1614 E 21 5243 E 15 5886 E 12 6525 E 25 6098
Mt Lemmon SE 14 2882 SE 17 0 SE 17 3013 SE 15 3262 SE 12 3777 E 28 3570
A Mountain NE 13 3363 E 20 1203 E 18 4006 E 14 4430 E 10 5063 E 21 4853
Rainbow Valley NE 14 27 E 17 27 E 13 27 E 12 27 NE 6 565 E 9 382
Pinal Peak E 18 0 E 29 0 E 26 0 E 26 1524 E 16 2419 E 30 2640
Harquahala E 14 0 E 25 0 E 20 158 E 16 1960 NE 9 3736 E 22 3949
El Tiro Gliderport N 13 2265 E 17 951 E 15 2935 E 12 3363 E 9 3790 E 21 4215

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com