NEWS:

Feb 16, 2021
- Problems getting data from National Weather Service began on Feb 11 impacting operation of the Soaring Predictor software.
The service seems to be working again at about 75% as of this morning, Feb 16.


Backup data is being sourced from WeatherAPI.com however, their free service is limited to 3 days. If you see a three day forecast for your favorite site, thank the WeatherAPI folks. The full 5-day forecasts are receiving input data from the National Weather service (thank them too :-).

Sounding

Station:

KTUS (alt)

Date/Time:

16 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue
Site
Name
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
South Mountain SSW 5 12140 W 6 5810 WSW 6 5810 WSW 9 7187 WSW 10 6518 E 6 5028
Oatman Mt SW 8 14515 S 6 12918 SW 6 13122 SW 10 13731 WSW 9 13122 W 5 12918
Shaw Butte SW 6 13390 SSW 9 12997 WSW 12 12590
The Y SSW 17 11576 S 13 8904 SSW 16 10713 SSW 18 10780 SW 17 10713 S 13 4671
Phoenix Regional SE 5 14631 SSE 6 13440 WNW 6 13440 W 9 13847 WSW 12 13847 WNW 6 13238
Humbolt SW 8 10795 SW 6 10253 SW 6 4922 SW 9 10253 SW 11 4232 NNE 6 3501
Miller Canyon W 8 8875 WSW 11 8065 SSW 6 8516 WSW 12 9188 WSW 16 8875 W 9 8211
Box Canyon NW 14 11116 E 14 9716 WNW 8 10848 WSW 13 11116 WSW 16 10982 WNW 11 10266
Mustang Mountain S 16 10862 SSW 14 9906 WNW 10 10862 WSW 13 10996 WSW 18 10862 WNW 13 9906
Whetstone Mountain SSW 12 10403 S 12 8661 W 11 10065 W 14 10403 WSW 19 10065 WNW 13 9806
Mt Lemmon W 8 7939 SW 12 6590 WNW 9 6771 WSW 12 7659 WSW 19 7372 W 10 6670
A Mountain W 13 12377 SW 17 11360 W 9 11768 W 11 12174 WSW 14 11970 WNW 10 11360
Rainbow Valley W 5 14806 W 5 13413 WSW 5 13413 WSW 9 14022 WSW 11 13615 E 5 13209
Pinal Peak W 11 8270 WSW 10 8079 WSW 11 8173 WSW 13 8173 WSW 17 8012 W 12 7076
Harquahala SSW 13 10030 S 11 0 SSW 12 0 SSW 13 3493 SW 11 1943 S 10 723
El Tiro Gliderport NNW 9 13047 S 19 7687 WNW 9 7687 W 13 12438 WSW 17 12438 WNW 10 7687
Mt Ord WSW 12 9330 WSW 10 8783 SW 11 8609 SW 13 8684 WSW 16 8609 WSW 11 8347

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com