Detailed Predictions for: Phoenix Regional
Launch Altitude (f): 1300
LZ Altitude (f): 1300
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 43 43 E 13 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 43 43 E 14 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 42 42 E 15 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 46 46 E 15 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 50 51 E 16 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 54 56 E 16 4112 2470 1170 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 58 61 E 16 7350 5942 4642 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 61 64 E 16 7480 7336 6036 Blue 10
1 PM Tue 62 65 E 15 7523 7384 6084 Blue 11
2 PM Tue 63 66 NE 14 7616 7427 6127 Blue 12
3 PM Tue 64 65 NE 13 7523 7384 6084 Blue 11
4 PM Tue 64 64 NE 12 7480 7336 6036 Blue 10
5 PM Tue 62 62 NE 10 7393 6749 5449 Blue 8
6 PM Tue 57 57 NE 10 5178 2470 1170 Blue 3
7 PM Tue 54 54 NE 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 52 52 E 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 49 49 E 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 47 47 E 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 46 46 E 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 45 45 E 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 45 45 E 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 45 45 E 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 44 44 E 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 43 43 E 10 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 42 42 E 10 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 41 41 E 10 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 40 40 E 12 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 44 44 E 12 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 50 50 E 13 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 55 56 E 13 4112 2470 1170 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 60 61 E 13 7350 5942 4642 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 64 66 E 13 7616 7427 6127 Blue 12
1 PM Wed 66 67 E 12 7750 7471 6171 Blue 13
2 PM Wed 67 68 NE 12 8039 7514 6214 Blue 14
3 PM Wed 68 68 NE 10 8039 7514 6214 Blue 14
4 PM Wed 68 68 NE 10 8039 7514 6214 Blue 14
5 PM Wed 66 66 NE 9 7616 7427 6127 Blue 12
6 PM Wed 61 61 NE 9 7350 5942 4642 Blue 7
7 PM Wed 58 58 NE 8 6076 2870 1570 Blue 4
8 PM Wed 55 55 NE 8 2902 2470 1170 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 52 52 NE 8 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 50 50 E 7 0 1300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 50 50 E 7 0 1300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 49 49 E 7 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 48 48 E 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 48 48 E 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 47 47 E 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 47 47 E 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 45 45 E 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 45 45 E 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 43 43 E 7 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 47 47 E 7 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 53 54 E 7 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 58 60 E 8 7169 5052 3752 Blue 6
11 AM Thu 63 66 E 8 7616 7427 6127 Blue 12
12 Noon Thu 67 70 E 8 8616 7720 6420 Blue 15
1 PM Thu 69 72 NE 8 8693 8290 6990 Blue 17
2 PM Thu 70 73 NE 7 8732 8607 7307 Blue 18
3 PM Thu 71 72 N 7 8693 8290 6990 Blue 17
4 PM Thu 71 71 N 6 8655 7963 6663 Blue 16
5 PM Thu 69 69 N 6 8369 7587 6287 Blue 15
6 PM Thu 63 63 N 6 7436 7127 5827 Blue 9
7 PM Thu 59 59 N 5 6895 4008 2708 Blue 5
8 PM Thu 56 56 NE 5 4112 2470 1170 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 53 53 NE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 50 50 E 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 50 50 E 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 49 49 E 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 48 48 E 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 47 47 E 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 46 46 E 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 46 46 E 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 44 44 E 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 44 44 E 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 42 42 E 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 47 47 E 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 52 53 E 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 58 60 E 5 7169 5052 3752 Blue 6
11 AM Fri 63 65 E 5 7523 7384 6084 Blue 11
12 Noon Fri 67 70 E 5 8616 7720 6420 Blue 15
1 PM Fri 69 72 NE 5 8693 8290 6990 Blue 17
2 PM Fri 70 72 NE 5 8693 8290 6990 Blue 17
3 PM Fri 71 72 N 3 8693 8290 6990 Blue 17
4 PM Fri 71 71 N 3 8655 7963 6663 Blue 16
5 PM Fri 69 69 NW 3 8369 7587 6287 Blue 15
6 PM Fri 63 63 NW 3 7436 7127 5827 Blue 9
7 PM Fri 60 60 NW 3 7169 5052 3752 Blue 6
8 PM Fri 57 57 NW 3 5178 2470 1170 Blue 3
9 PM Fri 54 54 NW 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 52 52 NW 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 51 51 NW 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 50 50 NW 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 49 49 N 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 49 49 NE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 48 48 NE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 48 48 E 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 46 46 E 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 46 46 E 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 44 44 E 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 48 48 E 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 54 54 E 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 59 60 E 3 7169 5052 3752 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 64 66 E 3 7616 7427 6127 Blue 12
12 Noon Sat 68 70 E 3 8616 7720 6420 Blue 15
1 PM Sat 70 72 E 3 8693 8290 6990 Blue 17
2 PM Sat 71 73 NE 3 8732 8607 7307 Blue 18
3 PM Sat 72 73 N 3 8732 8607 7307 Blue 18
4 PM Sat 72 72 N 3 8693 8290 6990 Blue 17
5 PM Sat 70 70 N 3 8616 7720 6420 Blue 15
6 PM Sat 64 64 N 3 7480 7336 6036 Blue 10
7 PM Sat 61 61 N 3 7350 5942 4642 Blue 7
8 PM Sat 58 58 NE 2 6076 2870 1570 Blue 4
9 PM Sat 54 54 E 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 52 52 E 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 51 51 E 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 50 50 E 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 50 50 E 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 49 49 E 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 48 48 E 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 48 48 E 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 46 46 E 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 46 46 E 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 44 44 E 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 49 49 E 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 54 54 E 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 60 61 E 5 7350 5942 4642 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 65 66 E 5 7616 7427 6127 Blue 12
12 Noon Sun 69 70 E 5 8616 7720 6420 Blue 15
1 PM Sun 71 72 E 5 8693 8290 6990 Blue 17
2 PM Sun 72 73 NE 5 8732 8607 7307 Blue 18
3 PM Sun 73 73 NE 3 8732 8607 7307 Blue 18
4 PM Sun 73 73 NE 3 8732 8607 7307 Blue 18
5 PM Sun 71 71 N 3 8655 7963 6663 Blue 16
6 PM Sun 65 65 N 3 7523 7384 6084 Blue 11
7 PM Sun 62 62 NE 3 7393 6749 5449 Blue 8
8 PM Sun 59 59 NE 3 6895 4008 2708 Blue 5
9 PM Sun 56 56 NE 3 4112 2470 1170 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 54 54 NE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 53 53 NE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 52 52 NE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 51 51 NE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 51 51 NE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 50 50 E 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 50 50 E 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com