Detailed Predictions for: Phoenix Regional
Launch Altitude (f): 1300
LZ Altitude (f): 1300
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

21 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sat 86 86 S 9 1289 1300 0 White 0
7 AM Sat 84 84 SE 8 1289 1300 0 White 0
8 AM Sat 86 86 E 6 1289 1300 0 White 0
9 AM Sat 89 90 E 3 1289 1300 0 White 0
10 AM Sat 89 91 NE 3 1289 1300 0 White 0
11 AM Sat 91 94 NW 5 1289 1300 0 White 0
12 Noon Sat 94 98 W 6 1289 1300 0 White 0
1 PM Sat 97 101 W 7 1289 1300 0 White 0
2 PM Sat 99 103 W 8 1289 1300 0 White 0
3 PM Sat 100 103 W 9 1289 1300 0 White 0
4 PM Sat 102 104 W 10 1289 1300 0 White 0
5 PM Sat 102 103 W 12 1289 1300 0 White 0
6 PM Sat 101 101 W 12 1289 1300 0 White 0
7 PM Sat 100 100 W 10 1289 1300 0 White 0
8 PM Sat 98 98 W 9 1289 1300 0 White 0
9 PM Sat 96 96 W 8 1289 1300 0 White 0
10 PM Sat 94 94 W 7 1289 1300 0 White 0
11 PM Sat 91 91 SW 7 1289 1300 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 90 90 SW 6 1289 1300 0 White 0
1 AM Sun 89 89 SW 6 1289 1300 0 White 0
2 AM Sun 88 88 SW 5 1289 1300 0 White 0
3 AM Sun 87 87 SW 3 1289 1300 0 White 0
4 AM Sun 86 86 SW 3 1289 1300 0 White 0
5 AM Sun 85 85 S 3 1289 1300 0 White 0
6 AM Sun 84 84 S 3 1289 1300 0 White 0
7 AM Sun 83 83 SW 3 1289 1300 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 87 88 SW 3 1289 1300 0 White 0
9 AM Sun 91 94 SW 3 1289 1300 0 White 0
10 AM Sun 94 98 W 5 1289 1300 0 White 0
11 AM Sun 97 103 W 5 1289 1300 0 White 0
12 Noon Sun 99 105 NW 6 1289 1300 0 White 0
1 PM Sun 101 108 NW 7 1289 1300 0 White 0
2 PM Sun 103 109 NW 8 1289 1300 0 White 0
3 PM Sun 105 110 NW 9 1289 1300 0 White 0
4 PM Sun 106 109 NW 10 1289 1300 0 White 0
5 PM Sun 106 108 W 12 1289 1300 0 White 0
6 PM Sun 105 105 W 12 1289 1300 0 White 0
7 PM Sun 104 104 W 10 1289 1300 0 White 0
8 PM Sun 102 102 W 9 1289 1300 0 White 0
9 PM Sun 99 99 W 7 1289 1300 0 White 0
10 PM Sun 97 97 W 7 1289 1300 0 White 0
11 PM Sun 95 95 W 7 1289 1300 0 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 93 93 W 7 1289 1300 0 White 0
1 AM Mon 91 91 W 7 1289 1300 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 90 90 W 6 1289 1300 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 89 89 W 6 1289 1300 0 White 0
4 AM Mon 87 87 SW 5 1289 1300 0 White 0
5 AM Mon 86 86 SW 5 1289 1300 0 White 0
6 AM Mon 86 86 SW 3 1289 1300 0 White 0
7 AM Mon 87 87 SW 3 1289 1300 0 White 0
8 AM Mon 90 91 W 3 1289 1300 0 White 0
9 AM Mon 93 96 W 5 1289 1300 0 White 0
10 AM Mon 96 101 W 5 1289 1300 0 White 0
11 AM Mon 100 106 NW 6 1289 1300 0 White 0
12 Noon Mon 103 110 NW 7 1289 1300 0 White 0
1 PM Mon 106 113 NW 7 1289 1300 0 White 0
2 PM Mon 108 114 NW 8 1289 1300 0 White 0
3 PM Mon 110 115 W 9 1289 1300 0 White 0
4 PM Mon 111 114 W 9 1289 1300 0 White 0
5 PM Mon 111 113 W 10 1289 1300 0 White 0
6 PM Mon 110 110 W 10 1289 1300 0 White 0
7 PM Mon 108 108 W 10 1289 1300 0 White 0
8 PM Mon 106 106 W 9 1289 1300 0 White 0
9 PM Mon 103 103 W 9 1289 1300 0 White 0
10 PM Mon 100 100 W 8 1289 1300 0 White 0
11 PM Mon 97 97 W 7 1289 1300 0 White 0
12 Midnight Tue 95 95 SW 7 1289 1300 0 White 0
1 AM Tue 93 93 SW 6 1289 1300 0 White 0
2 AM Tue 92 92 SW 5 1289 1300 0 White 0
3 AM Tue 90 90 SW 5 1289 1300 0 White 0
4 AM Tue 88 88 S 5 1289 1300 0 White 0
5 AM Tue 87 87 S 3 1289 1300 0 White 0
6 AM Tue 87 87 S 3 1289 1300 0 White 0
7 AM Tue 88 88 S 3 1289 1300 0 White 0
8 AM Tue 91 92 SE 3 1289 1300 0 White 0
9 AM Tue 94 97 SE 3 1289 1300 0 White 0
10 AM Tue 99 104 SE 3 1289 1300 0 White 0
11 AM Tue 103 110 SE 3 1289 1300 0 White 0
12 Noon Tue 107 115 E 5 1289 1300 0 White 0
1 PM Tue 109 116 E 5 1289 1300 0 White 0
2 PM Tue 111 118 NE 6 1289 1300 0 White 0
3 PM Tue 113 118 N 7 1289 1300 0 White 0
4 PM Tue 114 117 N 8 1289 1300 0 White 0
5 PM Tue 115 117 NW 8 1289 1300 0 White 0
6 PM Tue 114 114 W 8 1289 1300 0 White 0
7 PM Tue 112 112 W 8 1289 1300 0 White 0
8 PM Tue 109 109 W 8 1289 1300 0 White 0
9 PM Tue 106 106 W 8 1289 1300 0 White 0
10 PM Tue 103 103 W 7 1289 1300 0 White 0
11 PM Tue 100 100 SW 7 1289 1300 0 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 98 98 SW 6 1289 1300 0 White 0
1 AM Wed 96 96 SW 6 1289 1300 0 White 0
2 AM Wed 95 95 SW 6 1289 1300 0 White 0
3 AM Wed 93 93 S 6 1289 1300 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 91 91 S 5 1289 1300 0 White 0
5 AM Wed 89 89 S 5 1289 1300 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 89 89 S 5 1289 1300 0 White 0
7 AM Wed 90 90 S 5 1289 1300 0 White 0
8 AM Wed 93 94 S 5 1289 1300 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 96 98 SW 5 1289 1300 0 White 0
10 AM Wed 99 103 W 5 1289 1300 0 White 0
11 AM Wed 102 107 W 6 1289 1300 0 White 0
12 Noon Wed 105 111 W 6 1289 1300 0 White 0
1 PM Wed 108 114 W 7 1289 1300 0 White 0
2 PM Wed 110 115 W 8 1289 1300 0 White 0
3 PM Wed 111 115 W 10 1289 1300 0 White 0
4 PM Wed 112 114 W 12 1289 1300 0 White 0
5 PM Wed 112 113 W 13 1289 1300 0 White 0
6 PM Wed 111 111 W 13 1289 1300 0 White 0
7 PM Wed 109 109 W 13 1289 1300 0 White 0
8 PM Wed 107 107 W 13 1289 1300 0 White 0
9 PM Wed 104 104 W 12 1289 1300 0 White 0
10 PM Wed 102 102 SW 10 1289 1300 0 White 0
11 PM Wed 100 100 SW 9 1289 1300 0 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 98 98 SW 8 1289 1300 0 White 0
1 AM Thu 96 96 SW 8 1289 1300 0 White 0
2 AM Thu 94 94 S 7 1289 1300 0 White 0
3 AM Thu 92 92 S 7 1289 1300 0 White 0
4 AM Thu 90 90 S 7 1289 1300 0 White 0
5 AM Thu 89 89 S 7 1289 1300 0 White 0
6 AM Thu 88 88 S 7 1289 1300 0 White 0
7 AM Thu 88 88 S 7 1289 1300 0 White 0
8 AM Thu 90 91 S 7 1289 1300 0 White 0
9 AM Thu 92 94 S 7 1289 1300 0 White 0
10 AM Thu 94 97 SW 8 1289 1300 0 White 0
11 AM Thu 97 102 SW 8 1289 1300 0 White 0
12 Noon Thu 100 105 SW 9 1289 1300 0 White 0
1 PM Thu 102 107 SW 9 1289 1300 0 White 0
2 PM Thu 103 108 SW 10 1289 1300 0 White 0
3 PM Thu 105 109 W 10 1289 1300 0 White 0
4 PM Thu 105 108 W 12 1289 1300 0 White 0
5 PM Thu 105 106 W 12 1289 1300 0 White 0
6 PM Thu 104 104 W 13 1289 1300 0 White 0
7 PM Thu 103 103 W 13 1289 1300 0 White 0
8 PM Thu 101 101 W 13 1289 1300 0 White 0
9 PM Thu 99 99 SW 13 1289 1300 0 White 0
10 PM Thu 97 97 SW 12 1289 1300 0 White 0
11 PM Thu 94 94 SW 12 1289 1300 0 White 0
12 Midnight Fri 92 92 SW 10 1289 1300 0 White 0
1 AM Fri 90 90 SW 9 1289 1300 0 White 0
2 AM Fri 89 89 SW 9 1289 1300 0 White 0
3 AM Fri 87 87 S 8 1289 1300 0 White 0
4 AM Fri 86 86 S 7 1289 1300 0 White 0
5 AM Fri 85 85 S 6 1289 1300 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com