Detailed Predictions for: Phoenix Regional
Launch Altitude (f): 1300
LZ Altitude (f): 1300
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

26 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sun 60 60 S 7 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 59 60 S 10 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 64 66 S 14 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 68 72 S 17 2488 2470 1170 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 72 78 S 18 2862 2618 1318 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 74 82 S 18 4262 3486 2186 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 77 86 S 18 8282 6271 4971 Blue 14
1 PM Sun 79 88 S 17 8566 7970 6670 Blue 16
2 PM Sun 81 89 SW 17 8860 8263 6963 Blue 17
3 PM Sun 82 88 SW 16 8566 7970 6670 Blue 16
4 PM Sun 83 87 SW 16 8363 7401 6101 Blue 15
5 PM Sun 83 85 SW 16 8094 4239 2939 Blue 13
6 PM Sun 83 83 SW 16 6589 3738 2438 Blue 11
7 PM Sun 81 81 SW 15 4011 2816 1516 Blue 9
8 PM Sun 79 79 SW 14 3504 2662 1362 Blue 7
9 PM Sun 75 75 SW 13 2620 2486 1186 Blue 3
10 PM Sun 72 72 SW 13 2488 2470 1170 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 69 69 SW 12 0 1300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 67 67 S 12 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 66 66 SW 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 64 64 SW 8 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 63 63 SW 7 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 62 62 SW 7 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 60 60 W 8 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 59 59 W 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 58 58 W 10 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 60 61 W 10 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 63 66 W 10 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 65 69 W 10 0 1300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 68 74 W 10 2576 2470 1170 Blue 2
12 Noon Mon 69 76 W 10 2664 2530 1230 Blue 4
1 PM Mon 71 79 W 10 3504 2662 1362 Blue 7
2 PM Mon 73 80 W 12 3758 2705 1405 Blue 8
3 PM Mon 75 80 W 13 3758 2705 1405 Blue 8
4 PM Mon 76 79 W 13 3504 2662 1362 Blue 7
5 PM Mon 77 79 W 12 3504 2662 1362 Blue 7
6 PM Mon 77 77 W 10 2707 2574 1274 Blue 5
7 PM Mon 75 75 W 9 2620 2486 1186 Blue 3
8 PM Mon 73 73 W 7 2532 2470 1170 Blue 1
9 PM Mon 70 70 W 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 68 68 W 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 66 66 W 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 64 64 W 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 62 62 W 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 61 61 W 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 59 59 W 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 57 57 SW 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 55 55 S 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 55 55 SE 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 57 58 S 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 62 64 S 1 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 66 70 SW 1 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 70 76 SW 1 2664 2530 1230 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 74 82 W 1 4262 3486 2186 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 77 86 W 2 8282 6271 4971 Blue 14
1 PM Tue 79 88 W 2 8566 7970 6670 Blue 16
2 PM Tue 81 89 W 3 8860 8263 6963 Blue 17
3 PM Tue 82 88 W 5 8566 7970 6670 Blue 16
4 PM Tue 83 87 W 5 8363 7401 6101 Blue 15
5 PM Tue 84 86 W 6 8282 6271 4971 Blue 14
6 PM Tue 84 84 W 6 7517 3989 2689 Blue 12
7 PM Tue 82 82 W 6 4262 3486 2186 Blue 10
8 PM Tue 79 79 W 6 3504 2662 1362 Blue 7
9 PM Tue 76 76 W 6 2664 2530 1230 Blue 4
10 PM Tue 73 73 W 6 2532 2470 1170 Blue 1
11 PM Tue 71 71 W 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 69 69 W 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 67 67 W 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 66 66 SW 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 65 65 SW 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 63 63 SW 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 61 61 S 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 61 61 S 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 63 64 S 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 68 70 SW 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 72 76 SW 3 2664 2530 1230 Blue 4
10 AM Wed 76 82 SW 3 4262 3486 2186 Blue 10
11 AM Wed 80 88 W 3 8566 7970 6670 Blue 16
12 Noon Wed 83 92 W 3 9642 8788 7488 Blue 20
1 PM Wed 86 95 W 5 12441 9595 8295 Blue 23
2 PM Wed 88 96 W 5 12796 9764 8464 Blue 24
3 PM Wed 90 96 W 5 12796 9764 8464 Blue 24
4 PM Wed 91 95 W 6 12441 9595 8295 Blue 23
5 PM Wed 91 93 W 6 9811 8993 7693 Blue 21
6 PM Wed 90 90 W 6 9036 8345 7045 Blue 18
7 PM Wed 88 88 W 6 8566 7970 6670 Blue 16
8 PM Wed 85 85 W 7 8094 4239 2939 Blue 13
9 PM Wed 82 82 W 7 4262 3486 2186 Blue 10
10 PM Wed 79 79 W 7 3504 2662 1362 Blue 7
11 PM Wed 76 76 W 7 2664 2530 1230 Blue 4
12 Midnight Thu 74 74 W 6 2576 2470 1170 Blue 2
1 AM Thu 72 72 W 6 2488 2470 1170 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 71 71 SW 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 69 69 SW 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 66 66 S 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 64 64 S 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 64 64 S 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 66 67 S 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 70 72 S 2 2488 2470 1170 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 75 79 SW 2 3504 2662 1362 Blue 7
10 AM Thu 79 85 W 1 8094 4239 2939 Blue 13
11 AM Thu 83 91 W 1 9386 8496 7196 Blue 19
12 Noon Thu 87 96 NW 1 12796 9764 8464 Blue 24
1 PM Thu 90 99 W 1 15134 12660 11360 Blue 27
2 PM Thu 92 100 W 1 15621 13008 11708 Blue 28
3 PM Thu 93 99 W 2 15134 12660 11360 Blue 27
4 PM Thu 94 98 W 2 13771 12308 11008 Blue 26
5 PM Thu 95 97 W 3 13146 11949 10649 Blue 25
6 PM Thu 94 94 W 3 12081 9287 7987 Blue 22
7 PM Thu 92 92 W 5 9642 8788 7488 Blue 20
8 PM Thu 88 88 W 6 8566 7970 6670 Blue 16
9 PM Thu 85 85 W 7 8094 4239 2939 Blue 13
10 PM Thu 82 82 W 7 4262 3486 2186 Blue 10
11 PM Thu 79 79 W 8 3504 2662 1362 Blue 7
12 Midnight Fri 77 77 W 8 2707 2574 1274 Blue 5
1 AM Fri 75 75 W 8 2620 2486 1186 Blue 3
2 AM Fri 73 73 SW 8 2532 2470 1170 Blue 1
3 AM Fri 71 71 SW 7 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 68 68 S 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 66 66 S 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 66 66 S 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 68 69 S 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 72 74 S 3 2576 2470 1170 Blue 2
9 AM Fri 76 80 SW 3 3758 2705 1405 Blue 8
10 AM Fri 80 86 SW 3 8282 6271 4971 Blue 14
11 AM Fri 84 92 SW 3 9642 8788 7488 Blue 20
12 Noon Fri 88 97 W 3 13146 11949 10649 Blue 25
1 PM Fri 91 100 W 3 15621 13008 11708 Blue 28
2 PM Fri 93 101 W 3 16578 13350 12050 Blue 29
3 PM Fri 94 100 W 3 15621 13008 11708 Blue 28
4 PM Fri 95 99 W 5 15134 12660 11360 Blue 27
5 PM Fri 95 97 W 5 13146 11949 10649 Blue 25
6 PM Fri 94 94 W 6 12081 9287 7987 Blue 22
7 PM Fri 92 92 W 6 9642 8788 7488 Blue 20
8 PM Fri 88 88 W 7 8566 7970 6670 Blue 16
9 PM Fri 85 85 W 7 8094 4239 2939 Blue 13
10 PM Fri 82 82 W 7 4262 3486 2186 Blue 10
11 PM Fri 80 80 W 8 3758 2705 1405 Blue 8
12 Midnight Sat 77 77 W 8 2707 2574 1274 Blue 5
1 AM Sat 74 74 SW 8 2576 2470 1170 Blue 2
2 AM Sat 72 72 SW 7 2488 2470 1170 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 70 70 S 7 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 67 67 S 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 65 65 S 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com