Detailed Predictions for: Phoenix Regional
Launch Altitude (f): 1300
LZ Altitude (f): 1300
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

27 MAY 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sun 63 63 S 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 62 63 S 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 68 70 S 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 72 76 S 3 3235 2904 1604 Blue 6
10 AM Sun 76 82 S 3 4973 3552 2252 Blue 12
11 AM Sun 80 88 S 5 6958 5873 4573 Blue 18
12 Noon Sun 83 91 S 5 7880 6914 5614 Blue 21
1 PM Sun 84 92 SW 6 8207 7154 5854 Blue 22
2 PM Sun 86 93 SW 6 8512 7482 6182 Blue 23
3 PM Sun 88 93 W 6 8512 7482 6182 Blue 23
4 PM Sun 89 92 W 7 8207 7154 5854 Blue 22
5 PM Sun 89 91 W 8 7880 6914 5614 Blue 21
6 PM Sun 89 89 W 9 7215 6389 5089 Blue 19
7 PM Sun 89 89 W 9 7215 6389 5089 Blue 19
8 PM Sun 88 88 W 9 6958 5873 4573 Blue 18
9 PM Sun 83 83 W 8 5150 3974 2674 Blue 13
10 PM Sun 80 80 W 8 4044 3336 2036 Blue 10
11 PM Sun 77 77 W 7 3343 3012 1712 Blue 7
12 Midnight Mon 75 75 W 6 3126 2790 1490 Blue 5
1 AM Mon 74 74 W 5 3018 2610 1310 Blue 4
2 AM Mon 72 72 SW 5 2798 2470 1170 Blue 2
3 AM Mon 70 70 SW 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 69 69 SW 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 68 68 S 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 66 66 S 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 66 67 S 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 70 72 S 3 2798 2470 1170 Blue 2
9 AM Mon 77 81 S 3 4658 3444 2144 Blue 11
10 AM Mon 81 87 S 3 6715 5341 4041 Blue 17
11 AM Mon 86 94 SW 3 8808 7810 6510 Blue 24
12 Noon Mon 89 98 W 3 9833 9028 7728 Blue 27
1 PM Mon 91 99 W 5 10029 9318 8018 Blue 28
2 PM Mon 93 100 W 6 10229 9583 8283 Blue 29
3 PM Mon 95 100 W 7 10229 9583 8283 Blue 29
4 PM Mon 97 100 W 7 10229 9583 8283 Blue 29
5 PM Mon 98 99 W 8 10029 9318 8018 Blue 28
6 PM Mon 97 97 W 8 9637 8736 7436 Blue 26
7 PM Mon 95 95 W 8 9103 8134 6834 Blue 25
8 PM Mon 92 92 W 8 8207 7154 5854 Blue 22
9 PM Mon 89 89 W 8 7215 6389 5089 Blue 19
10 PM Mon 86 86 W 7 6470 5128 3828 Blue 16
11 PM Mon 83 83 W 7 5150 3974 2674 Blue 13
12 Midnight Tue 81 81 W 7 4658 3444 2144 Blue 11
1 AM Tue 79 79 W 6 3560 3228 1928 Blue 9
2 AM Tue 77 77 W 6 3343 3012 1712 Blue 7
3 AM Tue 75 75 W 5 3126 2790 1490 Blue 5
4 AM Tue 73 73 W 3 2909 2470 1170 Blue 3
5 AM Tue 71 71 SW 3 2618 2470 1170 Blue 1
6 AM Tue 71 71 SW 2 2618 2470 1170 Blue 1
7 AM Tue 73 73 SW 3 2909 2470 1170 Blue 3
8 AM Tue 76 78 SW 5 3452 3120 1820 Blue 8
9 AM Tue 81 85 SW 5 5952 4952 3652 Blue 15
10 AM Tue 86 91 SW 5 7880 6914 5614 Blue 21
11 AM Tue 90 97 SW 5 9637 8736 7436 Blue 26
12 Noon Tue 94 101 W 3 10440 9778 8478 Blue 30
1 PM Tue 96 103 W 5 10908 10167 8867 Blue 32
2 PM Tue 98 104 W 6 11494 10376 9076 Blue 33
3 PM Tue 99 104 W 7 11494 10376 9076 Blue 33
4 PM Tue 100 103 W 7 10908 10167 8867 Blue 32
5 PM Tue 101 102 W 8 10650 9973 8673 Blue 31
6 PM Tue 100 100 W 8 10229 9583 8283 Blue 29
7 PM Tue 98 98 W 8 9833 9028 7728 Blue 27
8 PM Tue 95 95 W 7 9103 8134 6834 Blue 25
9 PM Tue 92 92 W 7 8207 7154 5854 Blue 22
10 PM Tue 89 89 W 7 7215 6389 5089 Blue 19
11 PM Tue 86 86 W 8 6470 5128 3828 Blue 16
12 Midnight Wed 83 83 SW 8 5150 3974 2674 Blue 13
1 AM Wed 81 81 SW 7 4658 3444 2144 Blue 11
2 AM Wed 79 79 S 6 3560 3228 1928 Blue 9
3 AM Wed 77 77 S 5 3343 3012 1712 Blue 7
4 AM Wed 74 74 S 5 3018 2610 1310 Blue 4
5 AM Wed 72 72 S 5 2798 2470 1170 Blue 2
6 AM Wed 72 72 SE 6 2798 2470 1170 Blue 2
7 AM Wed 74 74 SE 6 3018 2610 1310 Blue 4
8 AM Wed 77 79 S 6 3560 3228 1928 Blue 9
9 AM Wed 82 86 S 6 6470 5128 3828 Blue 16
10 AM Wed 86 92 S 6 8207 7154 5854 Blue 22
11 AM Wed 91 99 S 7 10029 9318 8018 Blue 28
12 Noon Wed 94 103 S 7 10908 10167 8867 Blue 32
1 PM Wed 97 105 S 8 12056 10585 9285 Blue 34
2 PM Wed 99 106 S 9 12599 10793 9493 Blue 35
3 PM Wed 101 107 S 10 13122 11301 10001 Blue 36
4 PM Wed 102 106 SW 12 12599 10793 9493 Blue 35
5 PM Wed 102 104 SW 13 11494 10376 9076 Blue 33
6 PM Wed 101 101 SW 13 10440 9778 8478 Blue 30
7 PM Wed 99 99 SW 13 10029 9318 8018 Blue 28
8 PM Wed 95 95 SW 12 9103 8134 6834 Blue 25
9 PM Wed 92 92 SW 10 8207 7154 5854 Blue 22
10 PM Wed 88 88 SW 9 6958 5873 4573 Blue 18
11 PM Wed 84 84 SW 9 5413 4624 3324 Blue 14
12 Midnight Thu 81 81 SW 8 4658 3444 2144 Blue 11
1 AM Thu 79 79 S 8 3560 3228 1928 Blue 9
2 AM Thu 77 77 S 8 3343 3012 1712 Blue 7
3 AM Thu 75 75 S 8 3126 2790 1490 Blue 5
4 AM Thu 72 72 S 8 2798 2470 1170 Blue 2
5 AM Thu 70 70 S 8 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 69 69 SE 8 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 71 71 SE 8 2618 2470 1170 Blue 1
8 AM Thu 75 77 S 8 3343 3012 1712 Blue 7
9 AM Thu 79 83 S 9 5150 3974 2674 Blue 13
10 AM Thu 84 90 S 9 7549 6672 5372 Blue 20
11 AM Thu 88 95 S 9 9103 8134 6834 Blue 25
12 Noon Thu 92 100 S 10 10229 9583 8283 Blue 29
1 PM Thu 95 102 S 12 10650 9973 8673 Blue 31
2 PM Thu 98 104 S 13 11494 10376 9076 Blue 33
3 PM Thu 99 104 S 14 11494 10376 9076 Blue 33
4 PM Thu 100 103 SW 15 10908 10167 8867 Blue 32
5 PM Thu 100 101 SW 16 10440 9778 8478 Blue 30
6 PM Thu 98 98 SW 16 9833 9028 7728 Blue 27
7 PM Thu 95 95 SW 16 9103 8134 6834 Blue 25
8 PM Thu 92 92 SW 14 8207 7154 5854 Blue 22
9 PM Thu 88 88 SW 13 6958 5873 4573 Blue 18
10 PM Thu 84 84 SW 10 5413 4624 3324 Blue 14
11 PM Thu 81 81 SW 9 4658 3444 2144 Blue 11
12 Midnight Fri 78 78 SW 8 3452 3120 1820 Blue 8
1 AM Fri 76 76 SW 8 3235 2904 1604 Blue 6
2 AM Fri 74 74 S 8 3018 2610 1310 Blue 4
3 AM Fri 72 72 S 8 2798 2470 1170 Blue 2
4 AM Fri 69 69 S 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 67 67 S 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 66 66 S 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 68 68 S 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 72 74 S 9 3018 2610 1310 Blue 4
9 AM Fri 76 80 S 8 4044 3336 2036 Blue 10
10 AM Fri 81 87 S 7 6715 5341 4041 Blue 17
11 AM Fri 86 94 SW 7 8808 7810 6510 Blue 24
12 Noon Fri 90 99 SW 6 10029 9318 8018 Blue 28
1 PM Fri 92 101 SW 7 10440 9778 8478 Blue 30
2 PM Fri 95 103 SW 7 10908 10167 8867 Blue 32
3 PM Fri 96 102 W 7 10650 9973 8673 Blue 31
4 PM Fri 97 101 W 8 10440 9778 8478 Blue 30
5 PM Fri 98 100 W 8 10229 9583 8283 Blue 29
6 PM Fri 97 97 W 8 9637 8736 7436 Blue 26
7 PM Fri 95 95 W 8 9103 8134 6834 Blue 25
8 PM Fri 91 91 W 8 7880 6914 5614 Blue 21
9 PM Fri 88 88 W 7 6958 5873 4573 Blue 18
10 PM Fri 84 84 W 7 5413 4624 3324 Blue 14
11 PM Fri 81 81 W 6 4658 3444 2144 Blue 11
12 Midnight Sat 78 78 W 6 3452 3120 1820 Blue 8
1 AM Sat 76 76 W 6 3235 2904 1604 Blue 6
2 AM Sat 75 75 NW 5 3126 2790 1490 Blue 5
3 AM Sat 73 73 NW 5 2909 2470 1170 Blue 3
4 AM Sat 70 70 NW 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 67 67 NW 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com