Detailed Predictions for: Phoenix Regional
Launch Altitude (f): 1300
LZ Altitude (f): 1300
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

1 DEC 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 42 42 NE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 40 40 SE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 40 40 SE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 41 41 SE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 48 48 SE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 54 55 SE 2 2672 2558 1258 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 59 61 E 1 2879 2774 1474 Blue 11
12 Noon Tue 63 66 NW 2 3267 2975 1675 Blue 16
1 PM Tue 67 70 NW 5 3956 3356 2056 Blue 20
2 PM Tue 69 71 NW 6 4057 3747 2447 Blue 21
3 PM Tue 70 71 NW 7 4057 3747 2447 Blue 21
4 PM Tue 70 70 NW 7 3956 3356 2056 Blue 20
5 PM Tue 67 67 NW 5 3363 3070 1770 Blue 17
6 PM Tue 62 62 N 3 2914 2808 1508 Blue 12
7 PM Tue 58 58 N 2 2776 2671 1371 Blue 8
8 PM Tue 55 55 E 1 2672 2558 1258 Blue 5
9 PM Tue 52 52 E 3 2560 2470 1170 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 51 51 E 5 2522 2470 1170 Blue 1
11 PM Tue 50 50 E 5 2485 2470 1170 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 48 48 NE 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 46 46 E 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 45 45 E 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 44 44 NE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 43 43 NE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 42 42 NE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 40 40 NE 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 38 38 NE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 40 40 NE 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 48 48 NE 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 54 55 NE 6 2672 2558 1258 Blue 5
11 AM Wed 58 60 NE 7 2845 2739 1439 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 62 65 NE 7 3172 2912 1612 Blue 15
1 PM Wed 65 67 NE 6 3363 3070 1770 Blue 17
2 PM Wed 67 69 N 6 3856 3261 1961 Blue 19
3 PM Wed 67 68 N 6 3756 3165 1865 Blue 18
4 PM Wed 66 66 N 7 3267 2975 1675 Blue 16
5 PM Wed 64 64 N 7 3076 2877 1577 Blue 14
6 PM Wed 61 61 N 7 2879 2774 1474 Blue 11
7 PM Wed 57 57 N 7 2741 2634 1334 Blue 7
8 PM Wed 53 53 N 7 2598 2483 1183 Blue 3
9 PM Wed 50 50 N 8 2485 2470 1170 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 49 49 NE 8 0 1300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 47 47 NE 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 45 45 NE 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 44 44 NE 8 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 43 43 NE 8 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 42 42 NE 8 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 41 41 NE 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 41 41 NE 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 40 40 NE 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 40 40 NE 10 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 42 42 NE 10 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 46 46 NE 12 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 51 52 E 13 2560 2470 1170 Blue 2
11 AM Thu 56 58 E 14 2776 2671 1371 Blue 8
12 Noon Thu 59 62 E 14 2914 2808 1508 Blue 12
1 PM Thu 62 64 E 14 3076 2877 1577 Blue 14
2 PM Thu 63 65 E 14 3172 2912 1612 Blue 15
3 PM Thu 64 65 E 13 3172 2912 1612 Blue 15
4 PM Thu 63 63 NE 12 2980 2843 1543 Blue 13
5 PM Thu 62 62 NE 10 2914 2808 1508 Blue 12
6 PM Thu 59 59 NE 9 2810 2705 1405 Blue 9
7 PM Thu 55 55 NE 8 2672 2558 1258 Blue 5
8 PM Thu 52 52 NE 7 2560 2470 1170 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 50 50 NE 7 2485 2470 1170 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 48 48 E 7 0 1300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 47 47 E 7 0 1300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 46 46 E 7 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 44 44 E 7 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 43 43 E 7 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 42 42 E 7 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 41 41 E 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 40 40 E 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 39 39 E 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 39 39 E 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 41 41 E 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 45 45 E 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 50 51 E 6 2522 2470 1170 Blue 1
11 AM Fri 55 57 E 6 2741 2634 1334 Blue 7
12 Noon Fri 58 60 E 6 2845 2739 1439 Blue 10
1 PM Fri 61 63 E 6 2980 2843 1543 Blue 13
2 PM Fri 62 64 E 6 3076 2877 1577 Blue 14
3 PM Fri 62 63 E 6 2980 2843 1543 Blue 13
4 PM Fri 62 62 NE 6 2914 2808 1508 Blue 12
5 PM Fri 60 60 NE 6 2845 2739 1439 Blue 10
6 PM Fri 57 57 NE 5 2741 2634 1334 Blue 7
7 PM Fri 54 54 NE 5 2635 2521 1221 Blue 4
8 PM Fri 51 51 NE 3 2522 2470 1170 Blue 1
9 PM Fri 49 49 NE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 47 47 E 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 45 45 E 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 44 44 E 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 43 43 E 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 42 42 E 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 41 41 E 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 41 41 E 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 40 40 E 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 39 39 E 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 38 38 E 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 39 39 E 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 44 44 E 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 50 51 E 5 2522 2470 1170 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 56 58 E 5 2776 2671 1371 Blue 8
12 Noon Sat 61 63 E 6 2980 2843 1543 Blue 13
1 PM Sat 64 66 E 7 3267 2975 1675 Blue 16
2 PM Sat 66 68 E 7 3756 3165 1865 Blue 18
3 PM Sat 67 68 NE 7 3756 3165 1865 Blue 18
4 PM Sat 66 66 NE 6 3267 2975 1675 Blue 16
5 PM Sat 64 64 NE 5 3076 2877 1577 Blue 14
6 PM Sat 61 61 NE 3 2879 2774 1474 Blue 11
7 PM Sat 57 57 NE 3 2741 2634 1334 Blue 7
8 PM Sat 53 53 NE 3 2598 2483 1183 Blue 3
9 PM Sat 51 51 NE 3 2522 2470 1170 Blue 1
10 PM Sat 49 49 NE 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 48 48 NE 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 46 46 NE 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 45 45 E 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 44 44 E 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 43 43 E 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 42 42 E 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 42 42 E 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 41 41 E 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 41 41 E 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 42 42 E 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 46 46 E 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 52 53 E 6 2598 2483 1183 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 57 59 E 6 2810 2705 1405 Blue 9
12 Noon Sun 61 63 E 6 2980 2843 1543 Blue 13
1 PM Sun 65 67 E 7 3363 3070 1770 Blue 17
2 PM Sun 67 69 E 7 3856 3261 1961 Blue 19
3 PM Sun 68 69 E 7 3856 3261 1961 Blue 19
4 PM Sun 67 67 NE 6 3363 3070 1770 Blue 17
5 PM Sun 65 65 NE 6 3172 2912 1612 Blue 15
6 PM Sun 62 62 NE 6 2914 2808 1508 Blue 12
7 PM Sun 58 58 E 5 2776 2671 1371 Blue 8
8 PM Sun 55 55 E 5 2672 2558 1258 Blue 5
9 PM Sun 53 53 E 5 2598 2483 1183 Blue 3
10 PM Sun 51 51 E 5 2522 2470 1170 Blue 1
11 PM Sun 50 50 E 5 2485 2470 1170 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 49 49 E 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 47 47 E 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 46 46 E 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 45 45 E 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 44 44 E 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com