Detailed Predictions for: Phoenix Regional
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.991, -111.919, 1300
LZ Altitude (f): 1300
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

16 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 83 83 S 4 4 3342 3131 1831 Blue 10
1 AM Thu 82 82 SSE 4 4 3272 2999 1699 Blue 9
2 AM Thu 80 80 SE 4 4 3132 2821 1521 Blue 7
3 AM Thu 78 78 SE 4 5 2885 2695 1395 Blue 5
4 AM Thu 78 78 SE 4 5 2885 2695 1395 Blue 5
5 AM Thu 76 76 SE 5 5 2759 2467 1167 Blue 3
6 AM Thu 75 75 SE 5 5 2696 2467 1167 Blue 2
7 AM Thu 76 76 SE 4 6 2759 2467 1167 Blue 3
8 AM Thu 82 83 SE 5 6 3342 3131 1831 Blue 10
9 AM Thu 89 91 SE 5 5 4275 3689 2389 Blue 18
10 AM Thu 94 98 SE 4 6 13516 8410 7110 White 25
11 AM Thu 97 103 SE 3 6 14538 14538 13238 White 30
12 Noon Thu 100 107 SSE 3 8 15344 15344 14044 White 34
1 PM Thu 102 109 SSW 3 9 15735 15735 14435 White 36
2 PM Thu 104 110 WNW 3 9 15931 15931 14631 White 37
3 PM Thu 104 108 NW 4 11 15540 15540 14240 White 35
4 PM Thu 104 106 NW 5 11 15147 15147 13847 White 33
5 PM Thu 103 104 NW 5 10 14740 14740 13440 White 31
6 PM Thu 101 101 NNW 4 6 14130 14130 12830 White 28
7 PM Thu 97 97 NW 4 6 9942 7628 6328 Blue 24
8 PM Thu 93 93 NNW 3 5 6639 4065 2765 Blue 20
9 PM Thu 91 91 N 2 3 4275 3689 2389 Blue 18
10 PM Thu 88 88 WNW 2 4 3691 3479 2179 Blue 15
11 PM Thu 86 86 SW 5 5 3551 3340 2040 Blue 13
12 Midnight Fri 85 85 SSW 4 6 3481 3270 1970 Blue 12
1 AM Fri 83 83 S 4 6 3342 3131 1831 Blue 10
2 AM Fri 82 82 S 4 5 3272 2999 1699 Blue 9
3 AM Fri 81 81 SSE 4 5 3202 2884 1584 Blue 8
4 AM Fri 79 79 SE 5 6 3001 2758 1458 Blue 6
5 AM Fri 78 78 SE 6 8 2885 2695 1395 Blue 5
6 AM Fri 77 77 SE 5 8 2822 2632 1332 Blue 4
7 AM Fri 78 78 SE 5 6 2885 2695 1395 Blue 5
8 AM Fri 82 82 SSE 6 8 3272 2999 1699 Blue 9
9 AM Fri 87 88 S 4 5 3691 3479 2179 Blue 15
10 AM Fri 91 94 SSW 3 6 7787 4264 2964 Blue 21
11 AM Fri 93 97 WSW 3 5 9942 7628 6328 Blue 24
12 Noon Fri 96 101 W 3 3 14130 14130 12830 White 28
1 PM Fri 98 104 WNW 4 4 14740 14740 13440 White 31
2 PM Fri 99 104 WNW 5 5 14740 14740 13440 White 31
3 PM Fri 100 104 WNW 6 6 14740 14740 13440 White 31
4 PM Fri 99 101 W 6 6 14130 14130 12830 White 28
5 PM Fri 98 98 W 6 6 13516 8410 7110 White 25
6 PM Fri 95 95 W 6 6 8549 5086 3786 Blue 22
7 PM Fri 92 92 W 6 6 5218 3866 2566 Blue 19
8 PM Fri 89 89 W 6 6 3874 3549 2249 Blue 16
9 PM Fri 87 87 W 5 5 3621 3409 2109 Blue 14
10 PM Fri 85 85 WSW 5 5 3481 3270 1970 Blue 12
11 PM Fri 84 84 WSW 5 5 3412 3200 1900 Blue 11
12 Midnight Sat 83 83 WSW 4 4 3342 3131 1831 Blue 10
1 AM Sat 81 81 SW 4 4 3202 2884 1584 Blue 8
2 AM Sat 80 80 SSW 4 4 3132 2821 1521 Blue 7
3 AM Sat 79 79 SSW 4 4 3001 2758 1458 Blue 6
4 AM Sat 77 77 S 4 4 2822 2632 1332 Blue 4
5 AM Sat 77 77 S 4 4 2822 2632 1332 Blue 4
6 AM Sat 77 77 S 4 4 2822 2632 1332 Blue 4
7 AM Sat 79 79 S 4 4 3001 2758 1458 Blue 6
8 AM Sat 81 82 S 4 4 3272 2999 1699 Blue 9
9 AM Sat 84 86 SSW 4 4 3551 3340 2040 Blue 13
10 AM Sat 88 92 WSW 4 4 5218 3866 2566 Blue 19
11 AM Sat 92 97 W 4 4 9942 7628 6328 Blue 24
12 Noon Sat 95 101 W 4 4 14130 14130 12830 White 28
1 PM Sat 97 103 W 5 5 14538 14538 13238 White 30
2 PM Sat 98 104 WNW 5 5 14740 14740 13440 White 31
3 PM Sat 99 103 WNW 6 6 14538 14538 13238 White 30
4 PM Sat 100 102 W 6 6 14334 14334 13034 White 29
5 PM Sat 99 99 W 6 6 13722 9118 7818 White 26
6 PM Sat 97 97 W 6 6 9942 7628 6328 Blue 24
7 PM Sat 94 94 WNW 6 6 7787 4264 2964 Blue 21
8 PM Sat 91 91 WNW 5 5 4275 3689 2389 Blue 18
9 PM Sat 89 89 W 5 5 3874 3549 2249 Blue 16
10 PM Sat 87 87 W 5 5 3621 3409 2109 Blue 14
11 PM Sat 85 85 W 5 5 3481 3270 1970 Blue 12
12 Midnight Sun 83 83 W 4 4 3342 3131 1831 Blue 10
1 AM Sun 82 82 W 4 4 3272 2999 1699 Blue 9
2 AM Sun 81 81 W 4 4 3202 2884 1584 Blue 8
3 AM Sun 79 79 WSW 4 4 3001 2758 1458 Blue 6
4 AM Sun 78 78 SW 4 4 2885 2695 1395 Blue 5
5 AM Sun 78 78 SW 4 4 2885 2695 1395 Blue 5
6 AM Sun 79 79 SW 4 4 3001 2758 1458 Blue 6
7 AM Sun 80 80 SSW 4 4 3132 2821 1521 Blue 7
8 AM Sun 83 84 S 4 4 3412 3200 1900 Blue 11
9 AM Sun 87 89 SSW 4 4 3874 3549 2249 Blue 16
10 AM Sun 91 95 SSW 3 3 8549 5086 3786 Blue 22
11 AM Sun 95 101 SSW 3 3 14130 14130 12830 White 28
12 Noon Sun 97 104 SW 4 4 14740 14740 13440 White 31
1 PM Sun 99 105 WSW 5 5 14944 14944 13644 White 32
2 PM Sun 100 106 WSW 6 6 15147 15147 13847 White 33
3 PM Sun 101 105 WSW 8 8 14944 14944 13644 White 32
4 PM Sun 102 104 W 9 9 14740 14740 13440 White 31
5 PM Sun 101 102 W 9 9 14334 14334 13034 White 29
6 PM Sun 99 99 W 8 8 13722 9118 7818 White 26
7 PM Sun 95 95 W 6 6 8549 5086 3786 Blue 22
8 PM Sun 92 92 W 6 6 5218 3866 2566 Blue 19
9 PM Sun 89 89 W 5 5 3874 3549 2249 Blue 16
10 PM Sun 87 87 W 5 5 3621 3409 2109 Blue 14
11 PM Sun 85 85 WSW 6 6 3481 3270 1970 Blue 12
12 Midnight Mon 83 83 WSW 5 5 3342 3131 1831 Blue 10
1 AM Mon 81 81 SW 5 5 3202 2884 1584 Blue 8
2 AM Mon 79 79 SW 5 5 3001 2758 1458 Blue 6
3 AM Mon 77 77 SSW 5 5 2822 2632 1332 Blue 4
4 AM Mon 75 75 S 5 5 2696 2467 1167 Blue 2
5 AM Mon 74 74 S 5 5 2633 2467 1167 Blue 1
6 AM Mon 75 75 S 5 5 2696 2467 1167 Blue 2
7 AM Mon 77 77 S 5 5 2822 2632 1332 Blue 4
8 AM Mon 80 81 S 5 5 3202 2884 1584 Blue 8
9 AM Mon 84 86 S 5 5 3551 3340 2040 Blue 13
10 AM Mon 90 94 SSW 6 6 7787 4264 2964 Blue 21
11 AM Mon 94 100 SW 8 8 13926 9787 8487 White 27
12 Noon Mon 97 104 SW 9 9 14740 14740 13440 White 31
1 PM Mon 99 106 WSW 10 14 15147 15147 13847 White 33
2 PM Mon 100 106 WSW 11 16 15147 15147 13847 White 33
3 PM Mon 100 104 WSW 12 17 14740 14740 13440 White 31
4 PM Mon 100 102 W 12 17 14334 14334 13034 White 29
5 PM Mon 98 99 W 12 17 13722 9118 7818 White 26
6 PM Mon 95 95 W 10 14 8549 5086 3786 Blue 22
7 PM Mon 92 92 W 8 8 5218 3866 2566 Blue 19
8 PM Mon 88 88 WSW 6 6 3691 3479 2179 Blue 15
9 PM Mon 85 85 WSW 5 5 3481 3270 1970 Blue 12
10 PM Mon 82 82 SW 5 5 3272 2999 1699 Blue 9
11 PM Mon 80 80 SW 6 6 3132 2821 1521 Blue 7
12 Midnight Tue 78 78 SSW 5 5 2885 2695 1395 Blue 5
1 AM Tue 76 76 SSW 5 5 2759 2467 1167 Blue 3
2 AM Tue 75 75 S 4 4 2696 2467 1167 Blue 2
3 AM Tue 73 73 S 4 4 0 2467 1167 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 71 71 SSE 5 5 0 2467 1167 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 71 71 SSE 5 5 0 2467 1167 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 72 72 SE 5 5 0 2467 1167 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 74 74 ESE 4 4 2633 2467 1167 Blue 1
8 AM Tue 77 78 ESE 4 4 2885 2695 1395 Blue 5
9 AM Tue 81 83 ESE 4 4 3342 3131 1831 Blue 10
10 AM Tue 86 90 ESE 4 4 4075 3619 2319 Blue 17
11 AM Tue 90 96 ESE 4 4 9265 6478 5178 Blue 23
12 Noon Tue 93 100 ENE 4 4 13926 9787 8487 White 27
1 PM Tue 96 103 NNW 5 5 14538 14538 13238 White 30
2 PM Tue 97 103 WNW 5 5 14538 14538 13238 White 30
3 PM Tue 98 102 WNW 6 6 14334 14334 13034 White 29
4 PM Tue 98 100 NW 6 6 13926 9787 8487 White 27
5 PM Tue 97 98 NW 6 6 13516 8410 7110 White 25
6 PM Tue 94 94 NW 5 5 7787 4264 2964 Blue 21
7 PM Tue 90 90 NW 4 4 4075 3619 2319 Blue 17
8 PM Tue 86 86 NW 4 4 3551 3340 2040 Blue 13
9 PM Tue 83 83 WNW 3 3 3342 3131 1831 Blue 10
10 PM Tue 81 81 W 3 3 3202 2884 1584 Blue 8

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com