Detailed Predictions for: Phoenix Regional
Launch Altitude (f): 1300
LZ Altitude (f): 1300
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 45 45 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 44 44 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 44 44 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 44 44 E 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 48 48 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 53 54 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 58 60 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 62 64 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 64 66 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 66 67 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 67 68 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 68 68 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 67 67 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 63 63 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 60 60 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 57 57 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 55 55 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 55 55 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 54 54 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 53 53 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 52 52 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 52 52 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 51 51 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 50 50 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 50 50 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 49 49 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 48 48 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 49 49 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 53 53 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 56 57 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 60 62 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 62 64 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 64 66 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 65 67 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 66 67 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 66 66 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 65 65 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 62 62 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 59 59 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 56 56 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 53 53 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 52 52 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 50 50 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 49 49 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 48 48 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 48 48 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 47 47 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 45 45 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 44 44 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 42 42 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 41 41 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 42 42 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 46 46 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 52 53 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 57 59 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 61 64 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 64 67 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 65 67 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 66 67 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 67 67 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 66 66 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 63 63 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 59 59 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 55 55 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 53 53 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 51 51 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 50 50 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 49 49 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 48 48 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 46 46 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 45 45 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 45 45 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 43 43 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 42 42 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 41 41 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 42 42 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 47 47 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 53 54 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 59 60 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 64 65 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 67 68 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 69 70 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 70 71 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 71 71 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 69 69 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 66 66 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 61 61 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 57 57 W 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 54 54 W 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 53 53 SW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 51 51 SW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 50 50 SW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 48 48 SW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 47 47 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 47 47 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 46 46 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 45 45 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 44 44 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 43 43 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 44 44 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 49 49 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 55 56 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 61 63 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 65 67 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 66 69 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 67 69 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 68 69 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 67 67 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 66 66 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 63 63 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 59 59 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 55 55 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 52 52 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 50 50 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 49 49 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 47 47 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 46 46 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 45 45 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 44 44 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 42 42 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 41 41 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 39 39 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 39 39 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 40 40 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 44 44 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 49 50 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 53 55 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 57 60 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 59 62 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 61 63 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 62 63 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 63 63 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 62 62 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 60 60 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 56 56 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 53 53 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 50 50 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 48 48 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 46 46 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 44 44 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 43 43 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 42 42 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 41 41 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 40 40 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com