Detailed Predictions for: Phoenix Regional
Launch Altitude (f): 1300
LZ Altitude (f): 1300
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

16 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 86 86 SE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 85 85 SE 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 89 91 S 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 95 99 S 5 3155 2993 1693 Blue 7
10 AM Tue 100 106 S 5 7178 4908 3608 Blue 14
11 AM Tue 103 111 SW 5 10937 8586 7286 Blue 19
12 Noon Tue 106 115 SW 6 14350 11292 9992 White 23
1 PM Tue 108 117 SW 6 14751 14751 13451 White 25
2 PM Tue 110 118 W 7 14951 14951 13651 White 26
3 PM Tue 111 117 W 9 14751 14751 13451 White 25
4 PM Tue 112 116 W 10 14550 14550 13250 White 24
5 PM Tue 112 114 W 10 14149 10690 9390 White 22
6 PM Tue 111 111 W 12 10937 8586 7286 Blue 19
7 PM Tue 110 110 W 12 10150 7833 6533 Blue 18
8 PM Tue 107 107 W 10 7995 5513 4213 Blue 15
9 PM Tue 103 103 W 7 4991 3213 1913 Blue 11
10 PM Tue 99 99 W 6 3155 2993 1693 Blue 7
11 PM Tue 97 97 SW 6 3049 2888 1588 Blue 5
12 Midnight Wed 95 95 SW 3 2943 2470 1170 Blue 3
1 AM Wed 92 92 SW 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 90 90 SW 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 88 88 SW 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 87 87 SE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 86 86 S 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 85 85 SE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 84 84 S 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 87 89 S 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 92 96 S 6 2996 2835 1535 Blue 4
10 AM Wed 95 101 S 6 3479 3099 1799 Blue 9
11 AM Wed 98 106 S 6 7178 4908 3608 Blue 14
12 Noon Wed 100 109 SW 6 9472 7025 5725 Blue 17
1 PM Wed 102 111 SW 6 10937 8586 7286 Blue 19
2 PM Wed 104 111 W 7 10937 8586 7286 Blue 19
3 PM Wed 105 111 W 8 10937 8586 7286 Blue 19
4 PM Wed 106 110 W 9 10150 7833 6533 Blue 18
5 PM Wed 106 108 W 10 8756 6149 4849 Blue 16
6 PM Wed 105 105 W 10 6290 3889 2589 Blue 13
7 PM Wed 104 104 W 10 5590 3462 2162 Blue 12
8 PM Wed 101 101 W 9 3479 3099 1799 Blue 9
9 PM Wed 99 99 W 8 3155 2993 1693 Blue 7
10 PM Wed 96 96 W 7 2996 2835 1535 Blue 4
11 PM Wed 93 93 SW 5 2838 2470 1170 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 91 91 SW 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 89 89 SW 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 88 88 SW 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 87 87 SW 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 85 85 S 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 84 84 S 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 83 83 SE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 84 84 SE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 86 86 S 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 89 90 S 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 92 93 S 5 2838 2470 1170 Blue 1
11 AM Thu 94 97 SW 5 3049 2888 1588 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 97 101 SW 5 3479 3099 1799 Blue 9
1 PM Thu 99 103 SW 5 4991 3213 1913 Blue 11
2 PM Thu 101 105 W 6 6290 3889 2589 Blue 13
3 PM Thu 103 106 W 6 7178 4908 3608 Blue 14
4 PM Thu 105 107 W 7 7995 5513 4213 Blue 15
5 PM Thu 105 106 W 8 7178 4908 3608 Blue 14
6 PM Thu 105 105 W 8 6290 3889 2589 Blue 13
7 PM Thu 103 103 W 8 4991 3213 1913 Blue 11
8 PM Thu 100 100 W 7 3228 3046 1746 Blue 8
9 PM Thu 97 97 W 6 3049 2888 1588 Blue 5
10 PM Thu 95 95 W 5 2943 2470 1170 Blue 3
11 PM Thu 93 93 W 3 2838 2470 1170 Blue 1
12 Midnight Fri 91 91 W 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 89 89 W 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 88 88 SW 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 86 86 SW 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 84 84 SW 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 82 82 SW 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 82 82 SW 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 83 83 SW 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 85 86 SW 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 88 91 SW 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 91 95 SW 3 2943 2470 1170 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 95 101 W 3 3479 3099 1799 Blue 9
12 Noon Fri 98 104 W 3 5590 3462 2162 Blue 12
1 PM Fri 101 107 W 5 7995 5513 4213 Blue 15
2 PM Fri 103 108 W 6 8756 6149 4849 Blue 16
3 PM Fri 104 108 W 7 8756 6149 4849 Blue 16
4 PM Fri 105 107 W 8 7995 5513 4213 Blue 15
5 PM Fri 106 107 W 8 7995 5513 4213 Blue 15
6 PM Fri 105 105 W 8 6290 3889 2589 Blue 13
7 PM Fri 103 103 W 8 4991 3213 1913 Blue 11
8 PM Fri 101 101 W 7 3479 3099 1799 Blue 9
9 PM Fri 98 98 W 6 3102 2941 1641 Blue 6
10 PM Fri 96 96 W 5 2996 2835 1535 Blue 4
11 PM Fri 93 93 SW 3 2838 2470 1170 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sat 91 91 SW 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 89 89 SW 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 87 87 SW 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 86 86 SW 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 84 84 SW 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 82 82 S 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 82 82 SE 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 83 83 S 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 86 87 S 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 89 91 SW 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 92 95 SW 6 2943 2470 1170 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 95 98 W 6 3102 2941 1641 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 98 102 W 6 3978 3152 1852 Blue 10
1 PM Sat 100 104 W 6 5590 3462 2162 Blue 12
2 PM Sat 102 106 W 7 7178 4908 3608 Blue 14
3 PM Sat 103 106 W 7 7178 4908 3608 Blue 14
4 PM Sat 104 106 W 7 7178 4908 3608 Blue 14
5 PM Sat 105 106 W 8 7178 4908 3608 Blue 14
6 PM Sat 105 105 W 8 6290 3889 2589 Blue 13
7 PM Sat 103 103 W 8 4991 3213 1913 Blue 11
8 PM Sat 100 100 W 7 3228 3046 1746 Blue 8
9 PM Sat 97 97 W 7 3049 2888 1588 Blue 5
10 PM Sat 94 94 W 7 2891 2470 1170 Blue 2
11 PM Sat 92 92 W 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 90 90 W 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 88 88 W 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 86 86 SW 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 85 85 SW 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 83 83 SW 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 82 82 S 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 82 82 S 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 83 83 S 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 85 85 S 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 87 88 S 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 90 92 SW 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 92 94 W 5 2891 2470 1170 Blue 2
12 Noon Sun 95 97 W 5 3049 2888 1588 Blue 5
1 PM Sun 97 100 W 5 3228 3046 1746 Blue 8
2 PM Sun 100 103 W 6 4991 3213 1913 Blue 11
3 PM Sun 101 103 W 6 4991 3213 1913 Blue 11
4 PM Sun 102 104 W 7 5590 3462 2162 Blue 12
5 PM Sun 102 103 W 8 4991 3213 1913 Blue 11
6 PM Sun 102 102 W 8 3978 3152 1852 Blue 10
7 PM Sun 101 101 W 8 3479 3099 1799 Blue 9
8 PM Sun 98 98 W 7 3102 2941 1641 Blue 6
9 PM Sun 96 96 W 6 2996 2835 1535 Blue 4
10 PM Sun 94 94 W 6 2891 2470 1170 Blue 2
11 PM Sun 92 92 W 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 90 90 W 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 88 88 W 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 87 87 SW 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 86 86 SW 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 84 84 SW 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 83 83 S 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com