Detailed Predictions for: Phoenix Regional
Launch Altitude (f): 1300
LZ Altitude (f): 1300
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

17 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 45 45 E 10 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 43 43 E 10 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 42 42 E 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 43 43 E 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 47 47 E 10 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 52 53 E 13 2575 2470 1170 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 57 59 E 14 2814 2683 1383 Blue 9
12 Noon Wed 62 65 E 13 3698 3093 1793 Blue 15
1 PM Wed 65 68 E 12 4287 3682 2382 Blue 18
2 PM Wed 67 69 E 9 4483 3878 2578 Blue 19
3 PM Wed 68 69 E 8 4483 3878 2578 Blue 19
4 PM Wed 68 68 NE 6 4287 3682 2382 Blue 18
5 PM Wed 67 67 NE 5 4091 3486 2186 Blue 17
6 PM Wed 64 64 NE 5 3501 2923 1623 Blue 14
7 PM Wed 60 60 N 5 2870 2719 1419 Blue 10
8 PM Wed 56 56 N 5 2685 2574 1274 Blue 6
9 PM Wed 53 53 N 5 2575 2470 1170 Blue 3
10 PM Wed 51 51 NE 3 2502 2470 1170 Blue 1
11 PM Wed 49 49 NE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 48 48 E 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 47 47 E 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 47 47 E 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 46 46 E 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 46 46 E 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 44 44 E 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 42 42 E 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 41 41 E 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 42 42 E 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 47 47 E 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 53 54 E 7 2612 2501 1201 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 59 61 E 7 2926 2756 1456 Blue 11
12 Noon Thu 64 66 E 7 3895 3290 1990 Blue 16
1 PM Thu 67 69 E 7 4483 3878 2578 Blue 19
2 PM Thu 69 71 NE 7 4872 4268 2968 Blue 21
3 PM Thu 71 72 NE 6 5067 4462 3162 Blue 22
4 PM Thu 71 71 NE 5 4872 4268 2968 Blue 21
5 PM Thu 70 70 NE 3 4678 4073 2773 Blue 20
6 PM Thu 66 66 NE 3 3895 3290 1990 Blue 16
7 PM Thu 62 62 N 2 3105 2811 1511 Blue 12
8 PM Thu 58 58 N 2 2759 2647 1347 Blue 8
9 PM Thu 56 56 NE 2 2685 2574 1274 Blue 6
10 PM Thu 54 54 E 2 2612 2501 1201 Blue 4
11 PM Thu 53 53 E 2 2575 2470 1170 Blue 3
12 Midnight Fri 53 53 E 2 2575 2470 1170 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 52 52 E 3 2539 2470 1170 Blue 2
2 AM Fri 51 51 E 3 2502 2470 1170 Blue 1
3 AM Fri 50 50 E 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 49 49 E 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 48 48 E 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 47 47 E 7 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 46 46 E 7 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 47 47 E 7 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 52 52 SE 7 2539 2470 1170 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 58 59 SE 7 2814 2683 1383 Blue 9
11 AM Fri 64 66 SE 7 3895 3290 1990 Blue 16
12 Noon Fri 69 71 SE 7 4872 4268 2968 Blue 21
1 PM Fri 72 74 S 7 5405 4849 3549 Blue 24
2 PM Fri 75 77 S 6 5912 5382 4082 Blue 27
3 PM Fri 77 78 SW 6 6081 5551 4251 Blue 28
4 PM Fri 77 77 SW 5 5912 5382 4082 Blue 27
5 PM Fri 76 76 SW 5 5743 5214 3914 Blue 26
6 PM Fri 72 72 SW 5 5067 4462 3162 Blue 22
7 PM Fri 66 66 SW 6 3895 3290 1990 Blue 16
8 PM Fri 61 61 SW 6 2926 2756 1456 Blue 11
9 PM Fri 57 57 SW 7 2721 2610 1310 Blue 7
10 PM Fri 54 54 SW 7 2612 2501 1201 Blue 4
11 PM Fri 52 52 S 8 2539 2470 1170 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sat 50 50 SW 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 50 50 SW 10 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 49 49 SW 12 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 49 49 SW 13 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 48 48 SW 14 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 48 48 SW 14 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 49 49 SW 14 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 50 50 SW 14 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 50 50 W 13 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 50 50 W 12 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 49 49 W 12 0 1300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 50 51 W 10 2502 2470 1170 Blue 1
12 Noon Sat 53 54 W 12 2612 2501 1201 Blue 4
1 PM Sat 56 58 W 12 2759 2647 1347 Blue 8
2 PM Sat 58 59 W 13 2814 2683 1383 Blue 9
3 PM Sat 57 58 W 14 2759 2647 1347 Blue 8
4 PM Sat 55 55 W 14 2648 2537 1237 Blue 5
5 PM Sat 53 53 W 15 2575 2470 1170 Blue 3
6 PM Sat 52 52 W 14 2539 2470 1170 Blue 2
7 PM Sat 53 53 W 14 2575 2470 1170 Blue 3
8 PM Sat 52 52 W 13 2539 2470 1170 Blue 2
9 PM Sat 48 48 W 12 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 43 43 W 10 0 1300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 40 40 W 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 40 40 W 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 42 42 W 8 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 43 43 W 7 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 42 42 W 7 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 38 38 W 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 36 36 W 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 35 35 W 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 36 36 NW 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 38 38 NW 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 41 41 NW 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 44 45 NW 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 47 49 NW 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 52 55 NW 3 2648 2537 1237 Blue 5
1 PM Sun 56 59 NW 5 2814 2683 1383 Blue 9
2 PM Sun 59 61 NW 5 2926 2756 1456 Blue 11
3 PM Sun 59 60 NW 5 2870 2719 1419 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 57 57 NW 6 2721 2610 1310 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 56 56 NW 6 2685 2574 1274 Blue 6
6 PM Sun 55 55 NW 5 2648 2537 1237 Blue 5
7 PM Sun 54 54 N 5 2612 2501 1201 Blue 4
8 PM Sun 51 51 N 3 2502 2470 1170 Blue 1
9 PM Sun 47 47 NE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 43 43 NE 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 40 40 NE 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 39 39 NE 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 40 40 E 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 41 41 E 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 39 39 E 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 37 37 E 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 35 35 E 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 35 35 E 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 36 36 E 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 39 39 E 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 42 42 NE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 46 47 NE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 50 52 NE 3 2539 2470 1170 Blue 2
12 Noon Mon 56 58 NE 5 2759 2647 1347 Blue 8
1 PM Mon 60 62 NE 5 3105 2811 1511 Blue 12
2 PM Mon 63 65 N 6 3698 3093 1793 Blue 15
3 PM Mon 64 65 N 6 3698 3093 1793 Blue 15
4 PM Mon 63 63 NW 6 3303 2867 1567 Blue 13
5 PM Mon 61 61 NW 6 2926 2756 1456 Blue 11
6 PM Mon 59 59 NW 6 2814 2683 1383 Blue 9
7 PM Mon 58 58 NW 6 2759 2647 1347 Blue 8
8 PM Mon 54 54 NW 5 2612 2501 1201 Blue 4
9 PM Mon 50 50 NW 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 45 45 NW 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 42 42 NW 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 42 42 NW 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 43 43 NW 1 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 43 43 N 1 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 42 42 N 1 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 39 39 N 1 0 1300 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com