Detailed Predictions for: Phoenix Regional
Launch Altitude (f): 1300
LZ Altitude (f): 1300
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

19 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 46 46 N 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 46 46 NE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 46 46 NE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 49 49 NE 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 59 60 NE 6 1932 1932 632 White 0
10 AM Sun 64 66 NE 7 2722 2633 1333 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 68 71 E 8 2992 2795 1495 Blue 11
12 Noon Sun 73 76 NE 8 3573 3215 1915 Blue 16
1 PM Sun 76 79 NE 8 4350 3548 2248 Blue 19
2 PM Sun 77 79 NE 7 4350 3548 2248 Blue 19
3 PM Sun 78 79 NE 7 4350 3548 2248 Blue 19
4 PM Sun 79 79 N 6 4350 3548 2248 Blue 19
5 PM Sun 74 74 N 6 3281 2977 1677 Blue 14
6 PM Sun 70 70 N 5 2899 2751 1451 Blue 10
7 PM Sun 66 66 N 5 2722 2633 1333 Blue 7
8 PM Sun 63 63 N 5 2593 2509 1209 White 4
9 PM Sun 61 61 N 5 2153 2153 853 White 0
10 PM Sun 58 58 N 3 1489 1489 189 White 0
11 PM Sun 56 56 N 2 1289 1300 0 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 54 54 NE 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 53 53 NE 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 52 52 NE 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 49 49 NE 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 48 48 E 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 48 48 E 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 47 47 E 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 46 46 E 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 48 48 E 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 57 58 E 2 1489 1489 189 White 0
10 AM Mon 63 65 E 1 2692 2609 1309 Blue 6
11 AM Mon 69 71 E 1 2992 2795 1495 Blue 11
12 Noon Mon 74 76 NE 1 3573 3215 1915 Blue 16
1 PM Mon 77 79 N 2 4350 3548 2248 Blue 19
2 PM Mon 79 81 N 2 5408 3879 2579 Blue 21
3 PM Mon 80 81 N 2 5408 3879 2579 Blue 21
4 PM Mon 79 79 NW 3 4350 3548 2248 Blue 19
5 PM Mon 77 77 NW 3 3806 3277 1977 Blue 17
6 PM Mon 73 73 NW 3 3219 2896 1596 Blue 13
7 PM Mon 69 69 NW 3 2848 2721 1421 Blue 9
8 PM Mon 65 65 NW 3 2692 2609 1309 Blue 6
9 PM Mon 62 62 W 2 2373 2373 1073 White 0
10 PM Mon 60 60 W 1 1932 1932 632 White 0
11 PM Mon 58 58 SW 1 1489 1489 189 White 0
12 Midnight Tue 57 57 SW 1 1289 1300 0 White 0
1 AM Tue 55 55 S 1 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 54 54 SE 1 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 53 53 SE 1 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 52 52 E 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 50 50 E 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 49 49 E 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 48 48 E 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 50 NE 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 56 56 NE 2 1289 1300 0 White 0
10 AM Tue 64 65 NE 2 2692 2609 1309 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 71 73 N 2 3219 2896 1596 Blue 13
12 Noon Tue 77 79 N 3 4350 3548 2248 Blue 19
1 PM Tue 81 83 N 3 5724 5226 3926 Blue 23
2 PM Tue 83 84 N 3 5982 5387 4087 Blue 24
3 PM Tue 83 84 NW 5 5982 5387 4087 Blue 24
4 PM Tue 82 82 NW 5 5566 4258 2958 Blue 22
5 PM Tue 79 79 NW 5 4350 3548 2248 Blue 19
6 PM Tue 75 75 NW 5 3344 3153 1853 Blue 15
7 PM Tue 71 71 NW 5 2992 2795 1495 Blue 11
8 PM Tue 67 67 NW 3 2752 2661 1361 Blue 8
9 PM Tue 65 65 NW 3 2692 2609 1309 Blue 6
10 PM Tue 63 63 NW 2 2593 2509 1209 White 4
11 PM Tue 62 62 NW 2 2373 2373 1073 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 60 60 NW 2 1932 1932 632 White 0
1 AM Wed 58 58 N 3 1489 1489 189 White 0
2 AM Wed 57 57 N 3 1289 1300 0 White 0
3 AM Wed 56 56 NE 5 1289 1300 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 56 56 E 5 1289 1300 0 White 0
5 AM Wed 55 55 E 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 54 54 E 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 53 53 E 7 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 55 55 E 7 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 60 60 E 7 1932 1932 632 White 0
10 AM Wed 68 69 E 8 2848 2721 1421 Blue 9
11 AM Wed 75 77 E 8 3806 3277 1977 Blue 17
12 Noon Wed 80 82 E 8 5566 4258 2958 Blue 22
1 PM Wed 84 86 E 7 7405 5702 4402 Blue 26
2 PM Wed 86 88 E 7 8020 6590 5290 White 28
3 PM Wed 86 87 NE 6 7811 5868 4568 White 27
4 PM Wed 85 85 NE 6 6714 5544 4244 Blue 25
5 PM Wed 83 83 NE 6 5724 5226 3926 Blue 23
6 PM Wed 79 79 NE 5 4350 3548 2248 Blue 19
7 PM Wed 75 75 NE 5 3344 3153 1853 Blue 15
8 PM Wed 71 71 NE 5 2992 2795 1495 Blue 11
9 PM Wed 68 68 NE 5 2797 2691 1391 Blue 9
10 PM Wed 66 66 NE 5 2722 2633 1333 Blue 7
11 PM Wed 65 65 NE 5 2692 2609 1309 Blue 6
12 Midnight Thu 63 63 NE 5 2593 2509 1209 White 4
1 AM Thu 62 62 NE 5 2373 2373 1073 White 0
2 AM Thu 60 60 NE 5 1932 1932 632 White 0
3 AM Thu 59 59 NE 5 1711 1711 411 White 0
4 AM Thu 58 58 NE 5 1489 1489 189 White 0
5 AM Thu 56 56 NE 5 1289 1300 0 White 0
6 AM Thu 54 54 E 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 54 54 E 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 56 56 E 5 1289 1300 0 White 0
9 AM Thu 62 63 E 6 2593 2509 1209 White 4
10 AM Thu 69 71 E 6 2992 2795 1495 Blue 11
11 AM Thu 77 80 E 6 5250 3800 2500 Blue 20
12 Noon Thu 82 85 E 6 6714 5544 4244 Blue 25
1 PM Thu 85 88 NE 5 8020 6590 5290 White 28
2 PM Thu 86 88 NE 5 8020 6590 5290 White 28
3 PM Thu 87 88 N 5 8020 6590 5290 White 28
4 PM Thu 86 86 N 3 7405 5702 4402 Blue 26
5 PM Thu 84 84 N 3 5982 5387 4087 Blue 24
6 PM Thu 80 80 N 3 5250 3800 2500 Blue 20
7 PM Thu 74 74 N 3 3281 2977 1677 Blue 14
8 PM Thu 70 70 NE 3 2899 2751 1451 Blue 10
9 PM Thu 66 66 NE 3 2722 2633 1333 Blue 7
10 PM Thu 64 64 E 3 2662 2577 1277 Blue 5
11 PM Thu 63 63 E 3 2593 2509 1209 White 4
12 Midnight Fri 61 61 E 3 2153 2153 853 White 0
1 AM Fri 60 60 E 5 1932 1932 632 White 0
2 AM Fri 58 58 E 5 1489 1489 189 White 0
3 AM Fri 57 57 E 5 1289 1300 0 White 0
4 AM Fri 56 56 E 5 1289 1300 0 White 0
5 AM Fri 55 55 E 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 54 54 E 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 53 53 E 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 55 55 E 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 60 61 E 3 2153 2153 853 White 0
10 AM Fri 68 70 E 3 2899 2751 1451 Blue 10
11 AM Fri 75 78 E 2 3885 3339 2039 Blue 18
12 Noon Fri 81 84 E 2 5982 5387 4087 Blue 24
1 PM Fri 84 87 NE 2 7811 5868 4568 White 27
2 PM Fri 86 88 NE 2 8020 6590 5290 White 28
3 PM Fri 87 88 N 2 8020 6590 5290 White 28
4 PM Fri 86 86 N 2 7405 5702 4402 Blue 26
5 PM Fri 83 83 NW 2 5724 5226 3926 Blue 23
6 PM Fri 79 79 N 2 4350 3548 2248 Blue 19
7 PM Fri 73 73 N 2 3219 2896 1596 Blue 13
8 PM Fri 69 69 NE 2 2848 2721 1421 Blue 9
9 PM Fri 66 66 E 1 2722 2633 1333 Blue 7
10 PM Fri 64 64 SE 1 2662 2577 1277 Blue 5
11 PM Fri 62 62 SE 1 2373 2373 1073 White 0
12 Midnight Sat 61 61 SE 1 2153 2153 853 White 0
1 AM Sat 59 59 SE 1 1711 1711 411 White 0
2 AM Sat 58 58 SE 1 1489 1489 189 White 0
3 AM Sat 56 56 SE 1 1289 1300 0 White 0
4 AM Sat 55 55 SE 1 0 1300 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com