Detailed Predictions for: Phoenix Regional
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.991, -111.919, 1300
LZ Altitude (f): 1300
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

2 OCT 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 78 78 SSE 5 10 1286 1300 0 White 0
1 AM Sun 78 78 SSE 5 6 1286 1300 0 White 0
2 AM Sun 76 76 SSE 5 5 1286 1300 0 White 0
3 AM Sun 75 75 SE 4 5 1286 1300 0 White 0
4 AM Sun 74 74 SE 4 5 1286 1300 0 White 0
5 AM Sun 74 74 ESE 4 5 1286 1300 0 White 0
6 AM Sun 72 72 ESE 4 5 1286 1300 0 White 0
7 AM Sun 73 73 ESE 3 5 1286 1300 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 78 78 ESE 3 5 1286 1300 0 White 0
9 AM Sun 82 84 ESE 3 5 1286 1300 0 White 0
10 AM Sun 85 88 ESE 3 6 1286 1300 0 White 0
11 AM Sun 88 93 ESE 3 9 1286 1300 0 White 0
12 Noon Sun 90 96 SE 3 9 1286 1300 0 White 0
1 PM Sun 92 98 SSE 3 9 1286 1300 0 White 0
2 PM Sun 94 99 S 3 10 1286 1300 0 White 0
3 PM Sun 95 98 S 3 10 1286 1300 0 White 0
4 PM Sun 94 95 SSW 3 9 1286 1300 0 White 0
5 PM Sun 93 93 SW 3 6 1286 1300 0 White 0
6 PM Sun 91 91 WSW 4 6 1286 1300 0 White 0
7 PM Sun 88 88 NW 4 5 1286 1300 0 White 0
8 PM Sun 86 86 N 5 6 1286 1300 0 White 0
9 PM Sun 84 84 W 3 5 1286 1300 0 White 0
10 PM Sun 82 82 WSW 3 5 1286 1300 0 White 0
11 PM Sun 80 80 NW 3 6 1286 1300 0 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 79 79 WNW 4 6 1286 1300 0 White 0
1 AM Mon 78 78 WSW 4 6 1286 1300 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 76 76 S 4 6 1286 1300 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 75 75 S 4 5 1286 1300 0 White 0
4 AM Mon 74 74 SE 4 5 1286 1300 0 White 0
5 AM Mon 73 73 ESE 3 5 1286 1300 0 White 0
6 AM Mon 72 72 ESE 3 5 1286 1300 0 White 0
7 AM Mon 73 73 ESE 3 5 1286 1300 0 White 0
8 AM Mon 78 78 ESE 3 5 1286 1300 0 White 0
9 AM Mon 81 83 ESE 3 5 1286 1300 0 White 0
10 AM Mon 85 88 ESE 3 6 1286 1300 0 White 0
11 AM Mon 89 94 ESE 4 6 1286 1300 0 White 0
12 Noon Mon 92 98 SE 3 9 1286 1300 0 White 0
1 PM Mon 94 100 SSE 2 8 1286 1300 0 White 0
2 PM Mon 95 100 S 2 8 1286 1300 0 White 0
3 PM Mon 95 98 SW 3 8 1286 1300 0 White 0
4 PM Mon 95 96 WNW 4 8 1286 1300 0 White 0
5 PM Mon 93 93 NNW 5 9 1286 1300 0 White 0
6 PM Mon 91 91 N 6 10 1286 1300 0 White 0
7 PM Mon 88 88 NNE 6 11 1286 1300 0 White 0
8 PM Mon 85 85 NE 6 12 1286 1300 0 White 0
9 PM Mon 83 83 NE 5 11 1286 1300 0 White 0
10 PM Mon 81 81 NE 5 10 1286 1300 0 White 0
11 PM Mon 79 79 NE 4 9 1286 1300 0 White 0
12 Midnight Tue 77 77 NE 4 9 1286 1300 0 White 0
1 AM Tue 76 76 ENE 4 8 1286 1300 0 White 0
2 AM Tue 75 75 ENE 4 8 1286 1300 0 White 0
3 AM Tue 74 74 ENE 4 6 1286 1300 0 White 0
4 AM Tue 72 72 ENE 4 6 1286 1300 0 White 0
5 AM Tue 72 72 ENE 4 5 1286 1300 0 White 0
6 AM Tue 72 72 E 4 5 1286 1300 0 White 0
7 AM Tue 73 73 E 4 5 1286 1300 0 White 0
8 AM Tue 75 75 E 4 5 1286 1300 0 White 0
9 AM Tue 79 81 E 4 5 1286 1300 0 White 0
10 AM Tue 83 86 E 3 6 1286 1300 0 White 0
11 AM Tue 87 92 E 3 6 1286 1300 0 White 0
12 Noon Tue 90 96 NE 3 8 1286 1300 0 White 0
1 PM Tue 92 98 NNW 4 8 1286 1300 0 White 0
2 PM Tue 93 98 NW 4 9 1286 1300 0 White 0
3 PM Tue 94 97 NW 4 10 1286 1300 0 White 0
4 PM Tue 94 95 NW 5 10 1286 1300 0 White 0
5 PM Tue 93 93 NW 5 10 1286 1300 0 White 0
6 PM Tue 91 91 WNW 5 10 1286 1300 0 White 0
7 PM Tue 87 87 WSW 5 9 1286 1300 0 White 0
8 PM Tue 84 84 SW 5 9 1286 1300 0 White 0
9 PM Tue 82 82 SSW 5 9 1286 1300 0 White 0
10 PM Tue 80 80 S 5 10 1286 1300 0 White 0
11 PM Tue 78 78 S 5 10 1286 1300 0 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 76 76 SSE 5 10 1286 1300 0 White 0
1 AM Wed 75 75 SE 5 10 1286 1300 0 White 0
2 AM Wed 74 74 SE 5 9 1286 1300 0 White 0
3 AM Wed 73 73 ESE 4 8 1286 1300 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 71 71 ESE 4 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 71 71 E 3 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 71 71 E 3 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 73 73 E 4 5 1286 1300 0 White 0
8 AM Wed 75 75 E 4 6 1286 1300 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 79 81 E 4 8 1286 1300 0 White 0
10 AM Wed 83 86 E 4 8 1286 1300 0 White 0
11 AM Wed 87 92 ENE 4 9 1286 1300 0 White 0
12 Noon Wed 90 95 NE 4 10 1286 1300 0 White 0
1 PM Wed 92 97 N 5 10 1286 1300 0 White 0
2 PM Wed 93 98 NNW 5 11 1286 1300 0 White 0
3 PM Wed 94 97 NNW 5 11 1286 1300 0 White 0
4 PM Wed 94 95 NW 6 11 1286 1300 0 White 0
5 PM Wed 93 93 NW 6 11 1286 1300 0 White 0
6 PM Wed 90 90 NNW 6 10 1286 1300 0 White 0
7 PM Wed 86 86 N 5 10 1286 1300 0 White 0
8 PM Wed 83 83 N 5 9 1286 1300 0 White 0
9 PM Wed 81 81 NE 5 9 1286 1300 0 White 0
10 PM Wed 79 79 E 4 8 1286 1300 0 White 0
11 PM Wed 78 78 ESE 4 8 1286 1300 0 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 77 77 ESE 4 8 1286 1300 0 White 0
1 AM Thu 75 75 E 4 6 1286 1300 0 White 0
2 AM Thu 74 74 E 4 6 1286 1300 0 White 0
3 AM Thu 72 72 E 4 6 1286 1300 0 White 0
4 AM Thu 71 71 E 5 8 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 70 70 E 5 8 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 71 71 E 5 8 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 72 72 E 5 8 1286 1300 0 White 0
8 AM Thu 75 75 E 5 9 1286 1300 0 White 0
9 AM Thu 79 81 E 6 10 1286 1300 0 White 0
10 AM Thu 83 86 E 6 12 1286 1300 0 White 0
11 AM Thu 87 92 E 8 13 1286 1300 0 White 0
12 Noon Thu 90 95 E 8 14 1286 1300 0 White 0
1 PM Thu 92 97 E 6 14 1286 1300 0 White 0
2 PM Thu 93 97 ENE 6 14 1286 1300 0 White 0
3 PM Thu 93 96 ENE 8 14 1286 1300 0 White 0
4 PM Thu 93 94 ENE 8 14 1286 1300 0 White 0
5 PM Thu 91 91 ENE 9 13 1286 1300 0 White 0
6 PM Thu 88 88 ENE 9 12 1286 1300 0 White 0
7 PM Thu 85 85 E 9 12 1286 1300 0 White 0
8 PM Thu 82 82 E 9 11 1286 1300 0 White 0
9 PM Thu 80 80 E 9 11 1286 1300 0 White 0
10 PM Thu 78 78 E 8 11 1286 1300 0 White 0
11 PM Thu 77 77 E 8 11 1286 1300 0 White 0
12 Midnight Fri 76 76 E 8 11 1286 1300 0 White 0
1 AM Fri 74 74 E 8 11 1286 1300 0 White 0
2 AM Fri 73 73 E 8 11 1286 1300 0 White 0
3 AM Fri 71 71 E 8 10 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 70 70 E 6 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 70 70 E 6 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 71 71 E 6 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 72 72 E 8 11 1286 1300 0 White 0
8 AM Fri 75 75 E 9 12 1286 1300 0 White 0
9 AM Fri 79 80 E 10 14 1286 1300 0 White 0
10 AM Fri 83 86 E 11 16 1286 1300 0 White 0
11 AM Fri 87 91 E 12 18 1286 1300 0 White 0
12 Noon Fri 89 94 E 12 20 1286 1300 0 White 0
1 PM Fri 90 95 E 12 21 1286 1300 0 White 0
2 PM Fri 91 95 E 11 21 1286 1300 0 White 0
3 PM Fri 91 94 E 11 20 1286 1300 0 White 0
4 PM Fri 91 92 E 10 18 1286 1300 0 White 0
5 PM Fri 90 90 E 10 16 1286 1300 0 White 0
6 PM Fri 87 87 E 10 16 1286 1300 0 White 0
7 PM Fri 84 84 ESE 10 14 1286 1300 0 White 0
8 PM Fri 81 81 ESE 10 14 1286 1300 0 White 0
9 PM Fri 79 79 ESE 9 13 1286 1300 0 White 0
10 PM Fri 77 77 E 9 11 1286 1300 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com