Detailed Predictions for: Phoenix Regional
Launch Altitude (f): 1300
LZ Altitude (f): 1300
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

12Z 23 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sat 62 62 S 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 61 61 S 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 61 62 S 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 69 71 S 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 73 77 SW 3 3611 2612 1312 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 76 81 SW 3 6638 4115 2815 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 79 85 SW 5 8959 6956 5656 Blue 8
1 PM Sat 82 88 SW 6 10108 8738 7438 Blue 11
2 PM Sat 84 89 SW 7 10307 9267 7967 Blue 12
3 PM Sat 86 90 W 8 10505 9637 8337 Blue 13
4 PM Sat 87 89 W 9 10307 9267 7967 Blue 12
5 PM Sat 87 87 W 10 9739 7862 6562 Blue 10
6 PM Sat 87 87 W 10 9739 7862 6562 Blue 10
7 PM Sat 83 83 W 10 7449 5463 4163 Blue 6
8 PM Sat 77 77 W 9 3611 2612 1312 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 72 72 W 8 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 70 70 W 7 0 1300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 68 68 W 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 67 67 W 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 63 63 W 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 62 62 W 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 64 64 W 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 62 62 W 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 60 60 W 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 59 59 W 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 58 58 W 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 59 60 W 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 67 69 W 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 71 75 W 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 75 80 W 2 5594 3572 2272 Blue 3
12 Noon Sun 79 85 NW 3 8959 6956 5656 Blue 8
1 PM Sun 81 87 NW 5 9739 7862 6562 Blue 10
2 PM Sun 83 88 NW 6 10108 8738 7438 Blue 11
3 PM Sun 85 89 NW 7 10307 9267 7967 Blue 12
4 PM Sun 87 89 NW 8 10307 9267 7967 Blue 12
5 PM Sun 87 87 NW 8 9739 7862 6562 Blue 10
6 PM Sun 87 87 NW 9 9739 7862 6562 Blue 10
7 PM Sun 83 83 NW 9 7449 5463 4163 Blue 6
8 PM Sun 77 77 W 9 3611 2612 1312 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 72 72 W 8 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 70 70 W 7 0 1300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 68 68 W 7 0 1300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 67 67 W 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 63 63 W 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 62 62 SW 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 64 64 SW 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 62 62 S 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 60 60 S 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 59 59 S 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 58 58 SE 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 59 60 SE 1 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 67 69 E 1 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 72 76 E 1 0 1300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 76 81 NE 1 6638 4115 2815 Blue 4
12 Noon Mon 79 85 N 2 8959 6956 5656 Blue 8
1 PM Mon 82 88 N 2 10108 8738 7438 Blue 11
2 PM Mon 84 89 N 3 10307 9267 7967 Blue 12
3 PM Mon 86 90 N 3 10505 9637 8337 Blue 13
4 PM Mon 88 90 N 5 10505 9637 8337 Blue 13
5 PM Mon 88 88 NW 5 10108 8738 7438 Blue 11
6 PM Mon 88 88 NW 6 10108 8738 7438 Blue 11
7 PM Mon 84 84 NW 6 8007 6526 5226 Blue 7
8 PM Mon 79 79 NW 5 4697 2612 1312 Blue 2
9 PM Mon 74 74 NW 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 72 72 NW 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 70 70 NW 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 68 68 W 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 65 65 NW 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 64 64 N 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 66 66 N 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 64 64 NE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 62 62 E 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 61 61 E 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 60 60 E 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 61 62 E 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 70 72 E 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 74 78 NE 3 4163 2612 1312 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 79 84 NE 5 8007 6526 5226 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 83 89 NE 5 10307 9267 7967 Blue 12
1 PM Tue 85 91 N 5 10868 10051 8751 Blue 14
2 PM Tue 88 93 N 5 11164 10445 9145 Blue 16
3 PM Tue 90 94 N 5 11341 10821 9521 Blue 17
4 PM Tue 92 94 NW 5 11341 10821 9521 Blue 17
5 PM Tue 92 92 NW 5 11016 10248 8948 Blue 15
6 PM Tue 92 92 NW 6 11016 10248 8948 Blue 15
7 PM Tue 88 88 NW 5 10108 8738 7438 Blue 11
8 PM Tue 82 82 NW 5 7029 4642 3342 Blue 5
9 PM Tue 77 77 N 5 3611 2612 1312 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 74 74 N 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 72 72 N 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 71 71 NE 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 67 67 NE 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 67 67 NE 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 69 69 E 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 66 66 E 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 64 64 E 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 63 63 E 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 62 62 E 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 63 64 E 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 72 74 E 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 77 81 E 3 6638 4115 2815 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 82 87 E 3 9739 7862 6562 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 86 92 NE 3 11016 10248 8948 Blue 15
1 PM Wed 88 94 NE 5 11341 10821 9521 Blue 17
2 PM Wed 91 96 NE 5 12076 11116 9816 Blue 19
3 PM Wed 93 96 NE 5 12076 11116 9816 Blue 19
4 PM Wed 95 97 NE 5 12442 11263 9963 Blue 20
5 PM Wed 95 95 N 5 11710 10969 9669 Blue 18
6 PM Wed 95 95 N 5 11710 10969 9669 Blue 18
7 PM Wed 91 91 N 5 10868 10051 8751 Blue 14
8 PM Wed 86 86 NE 5 9365 7368 6068 Blue 9
9 PM Wed 81 81 NE 6 6638 4115 2815 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 79 79 NE 6 4697 2612 1312 Blue 2
11 PM Wed 77 77 NE 6 3611 2612 1312 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 76 76 NE 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 73 73 NE 7 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 72 72 NE 7 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 74 74 NE 7 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 72 72 E 7 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 70 70 E 7 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 69 69 E 7 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 68 68 E 7 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 69 69 E 7 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 77 79 E 7 4697 2612 1312 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 81 84 NE 6 8007 6526 5226 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 85 90 NE 6 10505 9637 8337 Blue 13
12 Noon Thu 88 93 NE 6 11164 10445 9145 Blue 16
1 PM Thu 90 95 NE 5 11710 10969 9669 Blue 18
2 PM Thu 92 96 NE 5 12076 11116 9816 Blue 19
3 PM Thu 95 98 NE 5 12803 11585 10285 Blue 21
4 PM Thu 96 98 NE 5 12803 11585 10285 Blue 21
5 PM Thu 96 96 NE 5 12076 11116 9816 Blue 19
6 PM Thu 96 96 NE 5 12076 11116 9816 Blue 19
7 PM Thu 92 92 NE 5 11016 10248 8948 Blue 15
8 PM Thu 87 87 NE 5 9739 7862 6562 Blue 10
9 PM Thu 82 82 NE 6 7029 4642 3342 Blue 5
10 PM Thu 80 80 NE 6 5594 3572 2272 Blue 3
11 PM Thu 78 78 NE 7 4163 2612 1312 Blue 1
12 Midnight Fri 76 76 NE 7 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 73 73 NE 8 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 72 72 E 8 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 74 74 E 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 72 72 E 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 70 70 E 10 0 1300 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com