Detailed Predictions for: Phoenix Regional
Launch Altitude (f): 1300
LZ Altitude (f): 1300
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

26 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 56 56 SE 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 55 55 SE 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 56 56 SE 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 61 62 SE 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 67 69 SE 2 2862 2665 1365 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 72 74 E 2 3005 2918 1618 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 77 79 E 2 3490 3061 1761 Blue 15
1 PM Tue 81 84 NW 2 4556 3786 2486 Blue 20
2 PM Tue 83 85 NW 2 4752 4018 2718 Blue 21
3 PM Tue 85 87 W 3 5568 4548 3248 Blue 23
4 PM Tue 86 87 W 3 5568 4548 3248 Blue 23
5 PM Tue 86 86 W 3 5089 4479 3179 Blue 22
6 PM Tue 86 86 W 5 5089 4479 3179 Blue 22
7 PM Tue 83 83 NW 2 4487 3633 2333 Blue 19
8 PM Tue 78 78 NW 2 3336 3032 1732 Blue 14
9 PM Tue 75 75 W 2 3034 2946 1646 Blue 11
10 PM Tue 72 72 W 2 2948 2860 1560 Blue 8
11 PM Tue 70 70 W 2 2890 2731 1431 Blue 7
12 Midnight Wed 68 68 W 2 2801 2599 1299 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 66 66 S 2 2668 2470 1170 Blue 3
2 AM Wed 64 64 SE 3 2521 2470 1170 Blue 1
3 AM Wed 63 63 SE 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 61 61 SE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 60 60 SE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 59 59 SE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 58 58 SE 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 59 59 SE 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 64 65 SE 3 2602 2470 1170 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 69 69 SE 3 2862 2665 1365 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 74 76 S 3 3063 2975 1675 Blue 12
12 Noon Wed 79 79 S 2 3490 3061 1761 Blue 15
1 PM Wed 82 82 S 2 4076 3479 2179 Blue 18
2 PM Wed 84 84 SW 2 4556 3786 2486 Blue 20
3 PM Wed 84 84 W 3 4556 3786 2486 Blue 20
4 PM Wed 85 85 W 3 4752 4018 2718 Blue 21
5 PM Wed 85 85 W 5 4752 4018 2718 Blue 21
6 PM Wed 84 84 W 5 4556 3786 2486 Blue 20
7 PM Wed 82 82 W 5 4076 3479 2179 Blue 18
8 PM Wed 78 78 NW 3 3336 3032 1732 Blue 14
9 PM Wed 75 75 NW 3 3034 2946 1646 Blue 11
10 PM Wed 72 72 W 3 2948 2860 1560 Blue 8
11 PM Wed 69 69 W 3 2862 2665 1365 Blue 6
12 Midnight Thu 67 67 W 3 2734 2518 1218 Blue 4
1 AM Thu 65 65 W 3 2602 2470 1170 Blue 2
2 AM Thu 63 63 SW 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 61 61 SW 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 59 59 SW 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 58 58 S 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 57 57 S 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 57 57 S 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 59 60 SW 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 62 64 SW 3 2521 2470 1170 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 66 70 SW 3 2890 2731 1431 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 71 77 W 3 3182 3004 1704 Blue 13
12 Noon Thu 76 83 W 5 4487 3633 2333 Blue 19
1 PM Thu 79 86 W 6 5089 4479 3179 Blue 22
2 PM Thu 81 87 W 7 5568 4548 3248 Blue 23
3 PM Thu 82 86 W 8 5089 4479 3179 Blue 22
4 PM Thu 83 85 W 9 4752 4018 2718 Blue 21
5 PM Thu 82 83 W 10 4487 3633 2333 Blue 19
6 PM Thu 81 81 W 10 3798 3326 2026 Blue 17
7 PM Thu 78 78 W 9 3336 3032 1732 Blue 14
8 PM Thu 75 75 W 7 3034 2946 1646 Blue 11
9 PM Thu 71 71 W 6 2919 2797 1497 Blue 7
10 PM Thu 68 68 W 6 2801 2599 1299 Blue 5
11 PM Thu 65 65 W 6 2602 2470 1170 Blue 2
12 Midnight Fri 63 63 W 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 61 61 W 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 59 59 W 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 58 58 W 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 56 56 W 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 55 55 W 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 54 54 SW 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 54 54 W 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 56 57 W 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 59 61 W 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 63 67 W 3 2734 2518 1218 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 68 74 W 3 3005 2918 1618 Blue 10
12 Noon Fri 73 80 W 3 3644 3172 1872 Blue 16
1 PM Fri 76 83 W 3 4487 3633 2333 Blue 19
2 PM Fri 79 85 W 5 4752 4018 2718 Blue 21
3 PM Fri 80 84 W 6 4556 3786 2486 Blue 20
4 PM Fri 81 83 W 7 4487 3633 2333 Blue 19
5 PM Fri 81 81 W 8 3798 3326 2026 Blue 17
6 PM Fri 80 80 W 9 3644 3172 1872 Blue 16
7 PM Fri 77 77 W 8 3182 3004 1704 Blue 13
8 PM Fri 74 74 W 7 3005 2918 1618 Blue 10
9 PM Fri 70 70 W 6 2890 2731 1431 Blue 7
10 PM Fri 67 67 W 6 2734 2518 1218 Blue 4
11 PM Fri 65 65 W 6 2602 2470 1170 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sat 63 63 W 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 61 61 W 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 59 59 SW 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 58 58 SW 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 56 56 W 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 55 55 W 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 54 54 NW 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 54 54 N 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 56 57 NE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 59 61 NE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 64 68 NE 3 2801 2599 1299 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 69 74 N 5 3005 2918 1618 Blue 10
12 Noon Sat 74 80 N 5 3644 3172 1872 Blue 16
1 PM Sat 77 83 N 6 4487 3633 2333 Blue 19
2 PM Sat 79 84 N 6 4556 3786 2486 Blue 20
3 PM Sat 80 84 N 7 4556 3786 2486 Blue 20
4 PM Sat 81 83 N 8 4487 3633 2333 Blue 19
5 PM Sat 81 82 NW 9 4076 3479 2179 Blue 18
6 PM Sat 80 80 NW 9 3644 3172 1872 Blue 16
7 PM Sat 77 77 NW 8 3182 3004 1704 Blue 13
8 PM Sat 74 74 NW 7 3005 2918 1618 Blue 10
9 PM Sat 70 70 NW 6 2890 2731 1431 Blue 7
10 PM Sat 67 67 NW 6 2734 2518 1218 Blue 4
11 PM Sat 65 65 NW 6 2602 2470 1170 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sun 63 63 W 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 61 61 NW 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 59 59 N 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 58 58 N 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 56 56 NE 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 55 55 NE 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 54 54 E 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 54 54 E 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 56 57 E 7 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 59 61 E 7 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 63 67 E 8 2734 2518 1218 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 68 74 E 9 3005 2918 1618 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 73 80 E 9 3644 3172 1872 Blue 16
1 PM Sun 76 82 E 9 4076 3479 2179 Blue 18
2 PM Sun 79 85 E 8 4752 4018 2718 Blue 21
3 PM Sun 80 84 E 8 4556 3786 2486 Blue 20
4 PM Sun 81 83 E 8 4487 3633 2333 Blue 19
5 PM Sun 81 82 NE 7 4076 3479 2179 Blue 18
6 PM Sun 80 80 NE 7 3644 3172 1872 Blue 16
7 PM Sun 77 77 NE 6 3182 3004 1704 Blue 13
8 PM Sun 74 74 NW 6 3005 2918 1618 Blue 10
9 PM Sun 70 70 W 5 2890 2731 1431 Blue 7
10 PM Sun 67 67 NW 5 2734 2518 1218 Blue 4
11 PM Sun 64 64 NE 5 2521 2470 1170 Blue 1
12 Midnight Mon 62 62 E 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 60 60 E 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 58 58 E 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 57 57 E 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 55 55 E 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 54 54 E 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com