Detailed Predictions for: Phoenix Regional
Launch Altitude (f): 1300
LZ Altitude (f): 1300
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 78 78 S 8 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 81 81 S 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 79 80 S 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 84 86 S 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 89 93 SW 8 3073 2910 1610 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 92 97 W 7 5529 3124 1824 Blue 9
12 Noon Tue 95 101 W 6 7414 5798 4498 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 98 104 W 6 9318 7288 5988 Blue 16
2 PM Tue 99 104 W 7 9318 7288 5988 Blue 16
3 PM Tue 100 103 W 7 8675 6605 5305 Blue 15
4 PM Tue 100 102 W 9 8071 6104 4804 Blue 14
5 PM Tue 101 101 W 10 7414 5798 4498 Blue 13
6 PM Tue 100 100 W 12 6723 5489 4189 Blue 12
7 PM Tue 99 99 W 12 6149 5135 3835 Blue 11
8 PM Tue 96 96 W 10 5216 3071 1771 Blue 8
9 PM Tue 93 93 W 10 3073 2910 1610 Blue 5
10 PM Tue 91 91 W 9 2966 2470 1170 Blue 3
11 PM Tue 89 89 W 9 2582 2470 1170 Blue 1
12 Midnight Wed 87 87 SW 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 86 86 SW 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 85 85 SW 8 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 83 83 SW 8 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 83 83 S 7 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 82 82 S 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 82 82 S 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 80 80 S 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 79 79 S 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 81 81 S 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 83 83 S 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 84 85 S 7 0 1300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 85 86 S 8 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 81 82 S 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 82 83 SW 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 87 88 SW 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 89 89 SW 9 2582 2470 1170 Blue 1
5 PM Wed 89 89 SW 8 2582 2470 1170 Blue 1
6 PM Wed 87 87 SW 8 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 86 86 SW 8 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 85 85 S 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 84 84 S 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 82 82 S 8 0 1300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 81 81 S 7 0 1300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 79 79 S 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 78 78 S 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 78 78 S 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 78 78 SE 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 77 77 SE 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 76 76 SE 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 76 76 SE 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 76 76 SE 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 76 76 SE 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 77 78 SE 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 80 82 S 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 82 85 S 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 85 89 S 3 2582 2470 1170 Blue 1
1 PM Thu 88 92 S 5 3020 2569 1269 Blue 4
2 PM Thu 90 93 SW 5 3073 2910 1610 Blue 5
3 PM Thu 91 93 W 6 3073 2910 1610 Blue 5
4 PM Thu 92 93 W 6 3073 2910 1610 Blue 5
5 PM Thu 93 93 W 6 3073 2910 1610 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 92 92 W 6 3020 2569 1269 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 91 91 W 6 2966 2470 1170 Blue 3
8 PM Thu 89 89 SW 5 2582 2470 1170 Blue 1
9 PM Thu 87 87 SW 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 84 84 SW 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 82 82 SW 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 80 80 SW 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 79 79 SW 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 79 79 SW 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 79 79 S 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 78 78 S 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 77 77 S 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 76 76 S 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 76 76 S 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 76 76 S 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 78 79 SW 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 80 83 SW 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 84 88 SW 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 87 92 W 5 3020 2569 1269 Blue 4
1 PM Fri 89 94 W 5 3127 2964 1664 Blue 6
2 PM Fri 92 96 W 6 5216 3071 1771 Blue 8
3 PM Fri 93 96 W 6 5216 3071 1771 Blue 8
4 PM Fri 94 95 W 7 3400 3017 1717 Blue 7
5 PM Fri 95 95 W 7 3400 3017 1717 Blue 7
6 PM Fri 94 94 W 7 3127 2964 1664 Blue 6
7 PM Fri 92 92 W 7 3020 2569 1269 Blue 4
8 PM Fri 90 90 W 7 2913 2470 1170 Blue 2
9 PM Fri 87 87 W 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 85 85 W 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 83 83 SW 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 81 81 SW 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 79 79 SW 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 78 78 SW 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 77 77 SW 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 76 76 S 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 75 75 S 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 75 75 S 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 75 75 S 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 77 77 SE 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 79 80 E 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 82 85 E 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 86 90 NE 3 2913 2470 1170 Blue 2
12 Noon Sat 90 94 NE 3 3127 2964 1664 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 93 97 N 3 5529 3124 1824 Blue 9
2 PM Sat 95 99 N 3 6149 5135 3835 Blue 11
3 PM Sat 96 99 N 5 6149 5135 3835 Blue 11
4 PM Sat 97 98 NW 5 5841 3381 2081 Blue 10
5 PM Sat 98 98 NW 5 5841 3381 2081 Blue 10
6 PM Sat 97 97 W 5 5529 3124 1824 Blue 9
7 PM Sat 95 95 W 5 3400 3017 1717 Blue 7
8 PM Sat 93 93 W 5 3073 2910 1610 Blue 5
9 PM Sat 90 90 W 5 2913 2470 1170 Blue 2
10 PM Sat 88 88 W 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 86 86 W 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 84 84 W 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 82 82 SW 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 81 81 SW 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 79 79 S 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 78 78 S 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 76 76 S 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 76 76 S 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 76 76 S 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 78 78 SE 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 81 83 SE 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 84 87 SE 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 89 93 E 6 3073 2910 1610 Blue 5
12 Noon Sun 92 97 E 6 5529 3124 1824 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 95 100 SE 6 6723 5489 4189 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 97 101 SE 6 7414 5798 4498 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 98 101 S 6 7414 5798 4498 Blue 13
4 PM Sun 99 101 SW 5 7414 5798 4498 Blue 13
5 PM Sun 99 99 W 5 6149 5135 3835 Blue 11
6 PM Sun 98 98 W 5 5841 3381 2081 Blue 10
7 PM Sun 96 96 W 5 5216 3071 1771 Blue 8
8 PM Sun 94 94 W 5 3127 2964 1664 Blue 6
9 PM Sun 91 91 SW 3 2966 2470 1170 Blue 3
10 PM Sun 89 89 SW 3 2582 2470 1170 Blue 1
11 PM Sun 86 86 SW 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 84 84 SW 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 82 82 SW 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 80 80 S 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 79 79 S 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 78 78 S 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 76 76 S 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com