Detailed Predictions for: Phoenix Regional
Launch Altitude (f): 1300
LZ Altitude (f): 1300
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

19 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 57 57 SE 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 57 57 SE 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 56 56 E 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 59 59 E 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 63 63 E 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 69 69 E 2 2640 2551 1251 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 73 73 E 2 2727 2661 1361 Blue 8
12 Noon Tue 75 75 E 3 2771 2704 1404 Blue 10
1 PM Tue 74 74 SE 5 2748 2682 1382 Blue 9
2 PM Tue 73 73 SE 6 2727 2661 1361 Blue 8
3 PM Tue 73 73 SE 7 2727 2661 1361 Blue 8
4 PM Tue 72 72 E 7 2705 2639 1339 Blue 7
5 PM Tue 71 71 E 7 2683 2617 1317 Blue 6
6 PM Tue 68 68 E 9 2618 2470 1170 Blue 3
7 PM Tue 67 67 SE 10 2597 2470 1170 Blue 2
8 PM Tue 66 66 SE 10 2554 2470 1170 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 65 65 SE 10 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 65 65 SE 10 0 1300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 64 64 SE 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 63 63 S 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 63 63 S 10 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 63 63 S 12 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 63 63 S 13 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 63 63 S 14 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 62 62 S 16 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 61 61 S 18 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 59 59 S 20 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 61 61 S 22 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 62 62 S 23 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 63 63 S 24 0 1300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 64 64 S 25 0 1300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 64 64 S 25 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 65 65 S 24 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 65 65 S 23 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 64 64 S 22 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 63 63 S 21 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 62 62 SW 18 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 60 60 SW 16 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 59 59 SW 13 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 58 58 SW 10 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 57 57 S 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 56 56 S 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 55 55 S 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 55 55 S 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 55 55 S 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 55 S 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 55 55 S 10 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 54 54 S 10 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 54 54 S 10 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 53 53 S 10 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 54 54 S 8 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 55 55 S 7 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 57 57 S 7 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 59 59 S 8 0 1300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 62 63 S 8 0 1300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 63 64 S 8 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 64 65 SW 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 64 65 SW 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 64 64 SW 8 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 64 64 SW 7 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 63 63 SW 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 61 61 SW 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 59 59 SW 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 57 57 S 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 56 56 S 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 55 55 S 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 55 55 S 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 54 54 S 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 54 54 S 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 53 53 SE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 53 53 SE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 52 52 SE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 51 51 SE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 50 50 SE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 49 49 SE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 50 50 SE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 53 53 E 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 57 58 E 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 61 63 E 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 64 67 E 5 2597 2470 1170 Blue 2
1 PM Fri 65 67 E 5 2597 2470 1170 Blue 2
2 PM Fri 65 67 NE 5 2597 2470 1170 Blue 2
3 PM Fri 65 66 NE 5 2554 2470 1170 Blue 1
4 PM Fri 65 65 NE 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 64 64 NE 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 62 62 NE 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 59 59 N 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 56 56 N 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 54 54 N 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 53 53 N 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 52 52 N 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 52 52 N 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 51 51 N 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 50 50 NE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 50 50 NE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 49 49 NE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 48 48 NE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 47 47 NE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 47 47 NE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 49 49 E 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 53 53 E 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 58 59 E 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 63 65 E 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 66 68 E 5 2618 2470 1170 Blue 3
1 PM Sat 68 70 NE 5 2662 2596 1296 Blue 5
2 PM Sat 69 71 NE 5 2683 2617 1317 Blue 6
3 PM Sat 70 71 N 5 2683 2617 1317 Blue 6
4 PM Sat 70 70 N 5 2662 2596 1296 Blue 5
5 PM Sat 68 68 N 5 2618 2470 1170 Blue 3
6 PM Sat 65 65 N 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 62 62 N 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 58 58 N 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 56 56 N 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 55 55 N 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 54 54 N 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 53 53 N 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 52 52 N 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 51 51 NE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 50 50 NE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 49 49 E 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 48 48 E 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 47 47 E 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 47 47 E 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 49 49 E 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 53 53 E 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 58 59 E 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 63 64 E 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 67 68 NE 3 2618 2470 1170 Blue 3
1 PM Sun 69 70 NE 5 2662 2596 1296 Blue 5
2 PM Sun 70 71 N 5 2683 2617 1317 Blue 6
3 PM Sun 71 71 N 5 2683 2617 1317 Blue 6
4 PM Sun 70 70 N 5 2662 2596 1296 Blue 5
5 PM Sun 68 68 N 5 2618 2470 1170 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 65 65 NW 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 62 62 NW 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 58 58 W 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 56 56 W 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 54 54 W 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 53 53 W 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 52 52 SW 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 51 51 SW 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 51 51 S 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 50 50 S 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 49 49 SE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com