Detailed Predictions for: Phoenix Regional
Launch Altitude (f): 1300
LZ Altitude (f): 1300
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Wed 77 77 S 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 78 78 S 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 76 77 SE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 82 84 SE 3 2954 2738 1438 Blue 5
10 AM Wed 87 91 SE 5 3746 3310 2010 Blue 12
11 AM Wed 91 97 S 5 8929 5007 3707 Blue 18
12 Noon Wed 95 102 S 5 14045 10286 8986 Blue 23
1 PM Wed 97 104 S 6 14642 13769 12469 Blue 25
2 PM Wed 100 106 SW 7 14853 14347 13047 Blue 27
3 PM Wed 101 105 SW 7 14747 13876 12576 Blue 26
4 PM Wed 102 104 SW 8 14642 13769 12469 Blue 25
5 PM Wed 102 103 SW 8 14524 13484 12184 White 24
6 PM Wed 101 101 W 8 13813 9343 8043 Blue 22
7 PM Wed 98 98 W 8 9483 5247 3947 Blue 19
8 PM Wed 94 94 W 7 5034 3713 2413 Blue 15
9 PM Wed 91 91 W 6 3746 3310 2010 Blue 12
10 PM Wed 89 89 W 5 3356 3223 1923 Blue 10
11 PM Wed 87 87 SW 5 3269 2950 1650 Blue 8
12 Midnight Thu 85 85 SW 5 3059 2809 1509 Blue 6
1 AM Thu 83 83 S 5 2883 2668 1368 Blue 4
2 AM Thu 81 81 S 5 2741 2470 1170 Blue 2
3 AM Thu 79 79 SE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 78 78 SE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 77 77 SE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 76 76 SE 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 75 75 SE 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 77 78 SE 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 82 84 SE 7 2954 2738 1438 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 87 91 SE 8 3746 3310 2010 Blue 12
11 AM Thu 90 96 S 9 7548 4605 3305 Blue 17
12 Noon Thu 93 99 S 10 10787 7246 5946 Blue 20
1 PM Thu 96 102 S 13 14045 10286 8986 Blue 23
2 PM Thu 98 104 S 14 14642 13769 12469 Blue 25
3 PM Thu 100 104 SW 15 14642 13769 12469 Blue 25
4 PM Thu 101 103 SW 16 14524 13484 12184 White 24
5 PM Thu 100 101 SW 17 13813 9343 8043 Blue 22
6 PM Thu 98 98 SW 16 9483 5247 3947 Blue 19
7 PM Thu 95 95 SW 15 5578 4163 2863 Blue 16
8 PM Thu 92 92 SW 12 4202 3354 2054 Blue 13
9 PM Thu 88 88 SW 9 3313 3050 1750 Blue 9
10 PM Thu 85 85 SW 8 3059 2809 1509 Blue 6
11 PM Thu 82 82 SW 6 2812 2557 1257 Blue 3
12 Midnight Fri 80 80 SW 5 2671 2470 1170 Blue 1
1 AM Fri 78 78 SW 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 76 76 S 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 74 74 S 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 72 72 S 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 71 71 S 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 70 70 SE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 71 71 SE 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 73 74 S 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 76 78 S 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 80 84 S 5 2954 2738 1438 Blue 5
11 AM Fri 85 91 S 5 3746 3310 2010 Blue 12
12 Noon Fri 89 96 S 6 7548 4605 3305 Blue 17
1 PM Fri 92 99 S 6 10787 7246 5946 Blue 20
2 PM Fri 95 101 SW 7 13813 9343 8043 Blue 22
3 PM Fri 96 100 SW 7 13604 8645 7345 Blue 21
4 PM Fri 97 99 SW 8 10787 7246 5946 Blue 20
5 PM Fri 96 97 SW 8 8929 5007 3707 Blue 18
6 PM Fri 95 95 W 8 5578 4163 2863 Blue 16
7 PM Fri 92 92 W 8 4202 3354 2054 Blue 13
8 PM Fri 89 89 SW 7 3356 3223 1923 Blue 10
9 PM Fri 85 85 SW 6 3059 2809 1509 Blue 6
10 PM Fri 82 82 SW 6 2812 2557 1257 Blue 3
11 PM Fri 80 80 SW 5 2671 2470 1170 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sat 78 78 SW 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 76 76 SW 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 75 75 S 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 73 73 S 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 71 71 S 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 70 70 S 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 69 69 SE 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 70 70 S 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 72 73 S 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 76 78 S 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 80 84 S 3 2954 2738 1438 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 85 90 S 3 3400 3267 1967 Blue 11
12 Noon Sat 89 95 S 3 5578 4163 2863 Blue 16
1 PM Sat 92 98 S 3 9483 5247 3947 Blue 19
2 PM Sat 94 99 SW 5 10787 7246 5946 Blue 20
3 PM Sat 95 99 SW 5 10787 7246 5946 Blue 20
4 PM Sat 96 98 W 6 9483 5247 3947 Blue 19
5 PM Sat 96 96 W 6 7548 4605 3305 Blue 17
6 PM Sat 95 95 NW 6 5578 4163 2863 Blue 16
7 PM Sat 92 92 W 6 4202 3354 2054 Blue 13
8 PM Sat 88 88 W 5 3313 3050 1750 Blue 9
9 PM Sat 84 84 W 3 2954 2738 1438 Blue 5
10 PM Sat 81 81 W 2 2741 2470 1170 Blue 2
11 PM Sat 79 79 SW 1 0 1300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 77 77 SW 1 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 76 76 SW 1 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 74 74 SW 1 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 73 73 S 1 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 71 71 S 1 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 70 70 S 1 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 70 70 S 1 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 71 71 S 1 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 74 74 SE 1 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 77 79 SE 1 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 81 85 SE 1 3059 2809 1509 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 85 90 SE 1 3400 3267 1967 Blue 11
12 Noon Sun 89 95 E 1 5578 4163 2863 Blue 16
1 PM Sun 92 97 SE 2 8929 5007 3707 Blue 18
2 PM Sun 94 99 SE 2 10787 7246 5946 Blue 20
3 PM Sun 95 98 S 3 9483 5247 3947 Blue 19
4 PM Sun 96 98 S 5 9483 5247 3947 Blue 19
5 PM Sun 95 95 S 6 5578 4163 2863 Blue 16
6 PM Sun 94 94 S 6 5034 3713 2413 Blue 15
7 PM Sun 92 92 S 7 4202 3354 2054 Blue 13
8 PM Sun 89 89 S 8 3356 3223 1923 Blue 10
9 PM Sun 86 86 S 9 3226 2880 1580 Blue 7
10 PM Sun 83 83 S 9 2883 2668 1368 Blue 4
11 PM Sun 81 81 S 10 2741 2470 1170 Blue 2
12 Midnight Mon 79 79 S 10 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 77 77 S 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 76 76 S 8 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 75 75 SE 8 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 74 74 SE 7 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 74 74 SE 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 74 74 SE 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 74 74 SE 7 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 76 76 SE 8 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 78 79 SE 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 80 82 S 12 2812 2557 1257 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 83 86 S 13 3226 2880 1580 Blue 7
12 Noon Mon 86 89 S 14 3356 3223 1923 Blue 10
1 PM Mon 89 92 S 15 4202 3354 2054 Blue 13
2 PM Mon 90 93 S 15 4649 3397 2097 Blue 14
3 PM Mon 92 94 S 16 5034 3713 2413 Blue 15
4 PM Mon 92 93 S 16 4649 3397 2097 Blue 14
5 PM Mon 91 91 SW 15 3746 3310 2010 Blue 12
6 PM Mon 90 90 SW 15 3400 3267 1967 Blue 11
7 PM Mon 88 88 SW 14 3313 3050 1750 Blue 9
8 PM Mon 85 85 S 13 3059 2809 1509 Blue 6
9 PM Mon 83 83 S 12 2883 2668 1368 Blue 4
10 PM Mon 81 81 S 10 2741 2470 1170 Blue 2
11 PM Mon 79 79 S 8 0 1300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 78 78 S 8 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 76 76 S 7 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 75 75 S 7 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 75 75 S 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 74 74 S 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 73 73 S 7 0 1300 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com