Detailed Predictions for: Pinal Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 7700
LZ Altitude (f): 5000
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

19 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 44 44 E 15 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 45 45 E 15 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 44 44 E 16 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 46 46 E 16 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 49 50 E 16 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 53 55 E 16 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 56 59 E 16 5650 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 58 61 E 15 6479 7700 0 Blue 1
1 PM Sun 59 62 E 14 7248 7700 0 Blue 2
2 PM Sun 61 63 E 12 9583 7700 0 Blue 3
3 PM Sun 60 61 E 10 6479 7700 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sun 59 59 E 8 5650 7700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 55 55 E 6 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 50 50 E 6 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 50 50 E 7 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 49 49 E 8 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 48 48 E 8 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 48 48 E 8 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 47 47 E 7 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 48 48 E 7 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 46 46 E 7 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 46 46 E 7 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 45 45 E 7 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 45 45 E 7 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 44 44 E 7 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 46 46 E 7 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 45 45 E 7 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 48 48 E 6 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 55 56 E 6 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 59 61 E 6 6479 7700 0 Blue 1
11 AM Mon 60 62 E 5 7248 7700 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Mon 63 66 SE 3 9850 9571 1871 Blue 6
1 PM Mon 64 66 S 2 9850 9571 1871 Blue 6
2 PM Mon 63 64 SW 1 9672 7700 0 Blue 4
3 PM Mon 61 61 SW 2 6479 7700 0 Blue 1
4 PM Mon 59 59 W 3 5650 7700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 57 57 W 6 5315 7700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 55 55 W 6 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 53 53 W 5 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 52 52 W 5 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 51 51 NW 5 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 51 51 NW 3 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 50 50 NW 3 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 50 50 NW 3 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 50 50 NW 2 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 49 49 N 2 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 49 49 N 3 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 49 49 N 3 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 48 48 NE 3 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 48 48 NE 5 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 49 49 NE 6 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 51 51 NE 7 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 54 54 NE 8 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 59 60 NE 9 5817 7700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 64 66 NE 9 9850 9571 1871 Blue 6
12 Noon Tue 68 70 NE 9 10662 9944 2244 Blue 10
1 PM Tue 70 72 NE 8 11138 10553 2853 Blue 12
2 PM Tue 70 71 N 7 10890 10459 2759 Blue 11
3 PM Tue 68 69 N 6 10568 9837 2137 Blue 9
4 PM Tue 66 66 N 5 9850 9571 1871 Blue 6
5 PM Tue 63 63 N 5 9583 7700 0 Blue 3
6 PM Tue 61 61 N 6 6479 7700 0 Blue 1
7 PM Tue 60 60 NE 8 5817 7700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 59 59 NE 9 5650 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 58 58 NE 12 5483 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 57 57 E 14 5315 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 56 56 E 15 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 55 55 E 16 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 55 55 E 16 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 55 55 E 16 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 54 54 E 16 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 53 53 E 16 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 52 52 E 16 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 52 52 E 16 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 53 53 E 16 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 55 55 E 17 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 58 58 E 17 5483 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 63 64 E 17 9672 7700 0 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 67 69 E 16 10568 9837 2137 Blue 9
12 Noon Wed 70 73 E 15 11542 10646 2946 Blue 13
1 PM Wed 71 73 E 14 11542 10646 2946 Blue 13
2 PM Wed 71 73 E 13 11542 10646 2946 Blue 13
3 PM Wed 69 70 E 12 10662 9944 2244 Blue 10
4 PM Wed 67 67 E 10 9960 9660 1960 Blue 7
5 PM Wed 65 65 E 9 9761 7700 0 Blue 5
6 PM Wed 63 63 E 9 9583 7700 0 Blue 3
7 PM Wed 61 61 E 10 6479 7700 0 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 60 60 E 10 5817 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 59 59 E 12 5650 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 59 59 E 12 5650 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 58 58 E 13 5483 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 57 57 E 13 5315 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 56 56 E 13 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 55 E 13 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 54 54 E 13 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 53 53 E 13 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 52 52 E 12 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 52 52 E 13 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 53 53 E 13 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 55 55 E 13 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 58 59 E 13 5650 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 63 65 E 13 9761 7700 0 Blue 5
11 AM Thu 67 70 E 12 10662 9944 2244 Blue 10
12 Noon Thu 71 74 E 10 11943 10846 3146 Blue 14
1 PM Thu 73 76 E 9 13680 11463 3763 Blue 16
2 PM Thu 73 75 E 8 12582 11093 3393 Blue 15
3 PM Thu 72 73 E 7 11542 10646 2946 Blue 13
4 PM Thu 69 69 E 6 10568 9837 2137 Blue 9
5 PM Thu 66 66 E 5 9850 9571 1871 Blue 6
6 PM Thu 63 63 E 5 9583 7700 0 Blue 3
7 PM Thu 61 61 E 6 6479 7700 0 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 59 59 E 6 5650 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 58 58 E 7 5483 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 57 57 E 7 5315 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 57 57 E 7 5315 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 56 56 E 7 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 55 55 E 7 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 55 55 E 6 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 54 54 E 5 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 53 53 E 5 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 52 52 E 3 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 52 52 E 3 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 53 53 E 3 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 54 54 SE 2 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 58 59 SE 2 5650 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 62 64 SE 2 9672 7700 0 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 67 69 SE 2 10568 9837 2137 Blue 9
12 Noon Fri 70 73 S 2 11542 10646 2946 Blue 13
1 PM Fri 71 74 S 3 11943 10846 3146 Blue 14
2 PM Fri 71 73 SW 3 11542 10646 2946 Blue 13
3 PM Fri 69 70 SW 3 10662 9944 2244 Blue 10
4 PM Fri 67 67 W 5 9960 9660 1960 Blue 7
5 PM Fri 64 64 W 5 9672 7700 0 Blue 4
6 PM Fri 62 62 W 3 7248 7700 0 Blue 2
7 PM Fri 60 60 W 3 5817 7700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 59 59 W 3 5650 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 58 58 W 2 5483 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 57 57 W 2 5315 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 57 57 W 1 5315 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 56 56 W 1 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 54 54 W 1 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 53 53 W 1 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 52 52 W 0 5230 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 51 51 W 0 5230 7700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com