Detailed Predictions for: Pinal Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 7700
LZ Altitude (f): 5000
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

12Z 23 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sat 55 55 SW 3 4843 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 55 55 SW 6 4843 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 57 58 SW 7 6596 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 60 62 SW 9 9071 7700 0 Blue 4
10 AM Sat 61 65 SW 10 10194 9023 1323 Blue 7
11 AM Sat 63 68 SW 12 10959 10162 2462 Blue 10
12 Noon Sat 64 70 SW 13 11271 10686 2986 Blue 12
1 PM Sat 66 72 SW 14 12026 11087 3387 Blue 14
2 PM Sat 67 72 SW 15 12026 11087 3387 Blue 14
3 PM Sat 67 71 SW 15 11635 10932 3232 Blue 13
4 PM Sat 67 69 SW 15 11115 10371 2671 Blue 11
5 PM Sat 66 66 W 15 10404 9426 1726 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 64 64 W 15 9875 8040 340 Blue 6
7 PM Sat 60 60 W 14 7465 7700 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 56 56 W 14 4843 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 54 54 W 13 4843 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 53 53 W 12 4843 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 52 52 W 10 4843 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 52 52 NW 9 4843 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 51 51 W 8 4843 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 51 51 W 7 4843 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 50 50 W 6 4843 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 49 49 W 5 4843 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 49 49 W 3 4843 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 48 48 W 2 4843 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 47 47 W 2 4843 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 51 52 W 3 4843 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 55 57 W 3 5370 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 58 62 W 5 9071 7700 0 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 61 67 SW 5 10772 9819 2119 Blue 9
12 Noon Sun 63 69 SW 6 11115 10371 2671 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 66 72 W 7 12026 11087 3387 Blue 14
2 PM Sun 68 73 W 8 12419 11242 3542 Blue 15
3 PM Sun 68 72 W 8 12026 11087 3387 Blue 14
4 PM Sun 68 70 W 9 11271 10686 2986 Blue 12
5 PM Sun 67 67 W 10 10772 9819 2119 Blue 9
6 PM Sun 65 65 W 10 10194 9023 1323 Blue 7
7 PM Sun 61 61 W 10 8130 7700 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sun 57 57 W 9 5370 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 55 55 W 9 4843 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 54 54 NW 8 4843 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 53 53 NW 7 4843 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 53 53 NW 7 4843 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 52 52 NW 6 4843 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 52 52 NW 6 4843 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 51 51 N 5 4843 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 50 50 N 5 4843 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 50 50 N 3 4843 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 49 49 N 3 4843 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 48 48 N 2 4843 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 53 54 N 2 4843 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 57 59 NW 2 7014 7700 0 Blue 1
10 AM Mon 60 64 NW 1 9875 8040 340 Blue 6
11 AM Mon 64 69 W 1 11115 10371 2671 Blue 11
12 Noon Mon 67 73 W 2 12419 11242 3542 Blue 15
1 PM Mon 70 76 W 2 13776 12331 4631 White 18
2 PM Mon 72 77 W 3 13985 12714 5014 White 19
3 PM Mon 72 75 W 5 13217 11943 4243 Blue 17
4 PM Mon 72 74 W 6 12805 11557 3857 Blue 16
5 PM Mon 71 71 W 7 11635 10932 3232 Blue 13
6 PM Mon 68 68 W 8 10959 10162 2462 Blue 10
7 PM Mon 65 65 W 8 10194 9023 1323 Blue 7
8 PM Mon 60 60 NW 8 7465 7700 0 Blue 2
9 PM Mon 58 58 NW 8 6596 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 57 57 N 8 5370 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 56 56 N 7 4843 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 55 55 N 7 4843 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 54 54 N 7 4843 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 54 54 NE 7 4843 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 53 53 NE 6 4843 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 52 52 NE 6 4843 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 52 52 E 6 4843 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 51 51 E 6 4843 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 50 50 E 6 4843 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 55 56 E 6 4843 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 60 62 SE 6 9071 7700 0 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 63 67 SE 6 10772 9819 2119 Blue 9
11 AM Tue 67 72 SE 6 12026 11087 3387 Blue 14
12 Noon Tue 69 75 S 6 13217 11943 4243 Blue 17
1 PM Tue 72 78 S 6 14197 13106 5406 White 20
2 PM Tue 75 80 S 6 14617 14617 6917 White 22
3 PM Tue 75 78 SW 6 14197 13106 5406 White 20
4 PM Tue 75 77 SW 7 13985 12714 5014 White 19
5 PM Tue 74 74 SW 7 12805 11557 3857 Blue 16
6 PM Tue 71 71 W 7 11635 10932 3232 Blue 13
7 PM Tue 68 68 SW 6 10959 10162 2462 Blue 10
8 PM Tue 63 63 SW 6 9477 7700 0 Blue 5
9 PM Tue 61 61 SW 6 8130 7700 0 Blue 3
10 PM Tue 60 60 S 6 7465 7700 0 Blue 2
11 PM Tue 59 59 S 6 7014 7700 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Wed 58 58 S 6 6596 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 57 57 S 6 5370 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 57 57 SE 6 5370 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 56 56 SE 6 4843 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 55 55 SE 6 4843 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 55 E 6 4843 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 54 54 E 6 4843 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 53 53 E 6 4843 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 57 57 E 6 5370 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 62 64 E 6 9875 8040 340 Blue 6
10 AM Wed 64 67 E 6 10772 9819 2119 Blue 9
11 AM Wed 68 72 SE 6 12026 11087 3387 Blue 14
12 Noon Wed 70 75 SE 6 13217 11943 4243 Blue 17
1 PM Wed 73 78 SE 7 14197 13106 5406 White 20
2 PM Wed 75 79 SE 7 14406 13582 5882 White 21
3 PM Wed 75 77 SE 7 13985 12714 5014 White 19
4 PM Wed 75 76 SE 8 13776 12331 4631 White 18
5 PM Wed 74 74 SE 8 12805 11557 3857 Blue 16
6 PM Wed 72 72 SE 9 12026 11087 3387 Blue 14
7 PM Wed 69 69 SE 9 11115 10371 2671 Blue 11
8 PM Wed 66 66 SE 10 10404 9426 1726 Blue 8
9 PM Wed 64 64 SE 12 9875 8040 340 Blue 6
10 PM Wed 63 63 SE 13 9477 7700 0 Blue 5
11 PM Wed 62 62 SE 14 9071 7700 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Thu 61 61 SE 14 8130 7700 0 Blue 3
1 AM Thu 61 61 E 15 8130 7700 0 Blue 3
2 AM Thu 61 61 E 16 8130 7700 0 Blue 3
3 AM Thu 59 59 E 17 7014 7700 0 Blue 1
4 AM Thu 59 59 E 17 7014 7700 0 Blue 1
5 AM Thu 59 59 E 17 7014 7700 0 Blue 1
6 AM Thu 58 58 E 18 6596 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 57 57 E 17 5370 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 61 61 E 17 8130 7700 0 Blue 3
9 AM Thu 64 66 E 16 10404 9426 1726 Blue 8
10 AM Thu 66 69 E 15 11115 10371 2671 Blue 11
11 AM Thu 69 73 E 15 12419 11242 3542 Blue 15
12 Noon Thu 71 75 E 14 13217 11943 4243 Blue 17
1 PM Thu 73 77 E 13 13985 12714 5014 White 19
2 PM Thu 75 78 E 12 14197 13106 5406 White 20
3 PM Thu 75 77 E 10 13985 12714 5014 White 19
4 PM Thu 75 76 E 10 13776 12331 4631 White 18
5 PM Thu 74 74 E 9 12805 11557 3857 Blue 16
6 PM Thu 72 72 E 9 12026 11087 3387 Blue 14
7 PM Thu 69 69 E 9 11115 10371 2671 Blue 11
8 PM Thu 66 66 E 9 10404 9426 1726 Blue 8
9 PM Thu 64 64 E 10 9875 8040 340 Blue 6
10 PM Thu 63 63 E 10 9477 7700 0 Blue 5
11 PM Thu 62 62 E 12 9071 7700 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Fri 61 61 E 12 8130 7700 0 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 61 61 E 13 8130 7700 0 Blue 3
2 AM Fri 61 61 E 14 8130 7700 0 Blue 3
3 AM Fri 59 59 E 14 7014 7700 0 Blue 1
4 AM Fri 59 59 E 15 7014 7700 0 Blue 1
5 AM Fri 59 59 E 16 7014 7700 0 Blue 1

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com