Detailed Predictions for: Pinal Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 7700
LZ Altitude (f): 5000
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

16 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 76 76 NW 10 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 78 78 NW 9 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 81 83 W 9 7529 7700 0 Blue 2
9 AM Tue 84 87 W 9 10788 8322 622 Blue 6
10 AM Tue 85 90 W 10 15344 10602 2902 White 9
11 AM Tue 87 94 SW 14 16168 16168 8468 White 13
12 Noon Tue 89 97 SW 16 16784 16784 9084 White 16
1 PM Tue 90 98 W 18 16988 16988 9288 White 17
2 PM Tue 91 98 W 20 16988 16988 9288 White 17
3 PM Tue 91 96 W 21 16579 16579 8879 White 15
4 PM Tue 91 94 W 22 16168 16168 8468 White 13
5 PM Tue 91 93 W 22 15963 15002 7302 White 12
6 PM Tue 90 90 W 22 15344 10602 2902 White 9
7 PM Tue 88 88 W 21 11393 9110 1410 Blue 7
8 PM Tue 86 86 W 20 9949 7700 0 Blue 5
9 PM Tue 82 82 W 18 6582 7700 0 Blue 1
10 PM Tue 81 81 W 18 5721 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 81 81 W 18 5721 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 80 80 W 17 5078 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 79 79 W 17 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 77 77 W 17 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 76 76 W 16 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 75 75 W 16 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 74 74 W 16 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 73 73 W 14 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 74 74 W 13 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 76 77 W 14 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 79 83 W 13 7529 7700 0 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 80 85 SW 13 9197 7700 0 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 82 90 W 14 15344 10602 2902 White 9
12 Noon Wed 84 93 W 14 15963 15002 7302 White 12
1 PM Wed 86 94 W 15 16168 16168 8468 White 13
2 PM Wed 87 94 W 17 16168 16168 8468 White 13
3 PM Wed 87 92 W 20 15757 12504 4804 White 11
4 PM Wed 87 90 W 21 15344 10602 2902 White 9
5 PM Wed 87 88 W 22 11393 9110 1410 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 86 86 W 22 9949 7700 0 Blue 5
7 PM Wed 84 84 W 22 8395 7700 0 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 81 81 W 22 5721 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 78 78 W 21 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 77 77 W 20 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 76 76 W 18 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 76 76 W 17 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 75 75 W 17 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 75 75 SW 18 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 74 74 SW 18 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 73 73 SW 17 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 71 71 W 15 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 71 71 W 14 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 72 72 W 14 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 75 76 W 14 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 77 78 W 14 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 79 81 W 14 5721 7700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 81 84 W 15 8395 7700 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Thu 82 86 W 16 9949 7700 0 Blue 5
1 PM Thu 83 87 W 17 10788 8322 622 Blue 6
2 PM Thu 84 88 W 20 11393 9110 1410 Blue 7
3 PM Thu 85 88 W 21 11393 9110 1410 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 85 87 W 22 10788 8322 622 Blue 6
5 PM Thu 85 86 W 22 9949 7700 0 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 84 84 W 22 8395 7700 0 Blue 3
7 PM Thu 82 82 W 21 6582 7700 0 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 79 79 W 20 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 77 77 W 18 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 76 76 W 17 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 76 76 W 16 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 76 76 W 15 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 75 75 W 15 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 75 75 W 15 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 74 74 W 15 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 73 73 W 14 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 71 71 W 12 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 71 71 W 10 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 72 72 W 10 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 75 76 W 10 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 77 79 W 12 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 79 82 W 13 6582 7700 0 Blue 1
11 AM Fri 81 85 W 14 9197 7700 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Fri 83 88 W 15 11393 9110 1410 Blue 7
1 PM Fri 84 89 W 16 13376 9851 2151 Blue 8
2 PM Fri 85 89 W 18 13376 9851 2151 Blue 8
3 PM Fri 86 89 W 20 13376 9851 2151 Blue 8
4 PM Fri 86 88 W 21 11393 9110 1410 Blue 7
5 PM Fri 86 87 W 21 10788 8322 622 Blue 6
6 PM Fri 85 85 W 21 9197 7700 0 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 83 83 W 20 7529 7700 0 Blue 2
8 PM Fri 80 80 W 18 5078 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 78 78 W 17 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 77 77 W 16 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 77 77 W 16 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 77 77 W 15 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 76 76 W 15 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 76 76 W 14 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 75 75 W 14 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 74 74 W 13 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 72 72 W 12 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 72 72 W 12 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 73 73 W 12 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 76 77 SW 12 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 78 80 SW 13 5078 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 80 82 SW 14 6582 7700 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 81 84 W 16 8395 7700 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Sat 82 85 W 17 9197 7700 0 Blue 4
1 PM Sat 83 86 W 18 9949 7700 0 Blue 5
2 PM Sat 84 87 W 20 10788 8322 622 Blue 6
3 PM Sat 85 88 W 20 11393 9110 1410 Blue 7
4 PM Sat 85 87 W 20 10788 8322 622 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 85 86 W 20 9949 7700 0 Blue 5
6 PM Sat 84 84 W 20 8395 7700 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 82 82 W 18 6582 7700 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sat 80 80 W 18 5078 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 78 78 W 17 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 77 77 W 17 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 76 76 W 18 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 76 76 W 18 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 76 76 W 17 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 75 75 W 15 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 75 75 W 14 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 74 74 W 13 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 73 73 W 12 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 72 72 W 12 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 73 73 W 12 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 74 75 W 12 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 76 78 W 12 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 77 80 W 13 5078 7700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 78 82 W 15 6582 7700 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sun 79 83 W 16 7529 7700 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sun 80 84 W 17 8395 7700 0 Blue 3
2 PM Sun 81 84 W 18 8395 7700 0 Blue 3
3 PM Sun 82 85 W 20 9197 7700 0 Blue 4
4 PM Sun 83 84 W 21 8395 7700 0 Blue 3
5 PM Sun 83 84 W 21 8395 7700 0 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 82 82 W 20 6582 7700 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 80 80 W 17 5078 7700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 77 77 W 15 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 75 75 W 14 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 75 75 W 14 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 75 75 W 14 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 76 76 W 15 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 76 76 W 15 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 75 75 W 15 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 74 74 W 14 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 73 73 W 13 4947 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 72 72 W 12 4947 7700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com