Detailed Predictions for: Pinal Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 7700
LZ Altitude (f): 5000
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

1 DEC 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 41 41 N 9 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 41 41 N 9 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 41 41 N 8 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 43 43 N 8 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 48 48 N 6 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 51 52 NW 6 5783 7700 0 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 53 55 NW 6 6199 7700 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Tue 54 57 W 7 6541 7700 0 Blue 6
1 PM Tue 55 58 W 7 6712 7700 0 Blue 7
2 PM Tue 56 58 W 8 6712 7700 0 Blue 7
3 PM Tue 55 56 NW 9 6370 7700 0 Blue 5
4 PM Tue 54 54 N 10 6028 7700 0 Blue 3
5 PM Tue 49 49 N 10 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 46 46 N 13 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 45 45 N 17 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 44 44 N 21 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 44 44 N 22 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 43 43 N 23 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 42 42 NE 24 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 41 41 N 23 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 41 41 N 21 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 40 40 NE 20 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 40 40 NE 18 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 39 39 NE 17 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 38 38 NE 16 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 37 37 N 14 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 37 37 NE 13 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 39 39 NE 14 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 41 41 NE 10 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 43 44 NE 12 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 44 46 NE 15 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 46 48 NE 15 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 47 49 E 13 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 48 50 E 12 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 47 48 NE 10 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 46 46 NE 10 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 44 44 NE 12 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 42 42 NE 15 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 40 40 NE 18 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 39 39 NE 22 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 38 38 NE 23 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 37 37 NE 23 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 37 37 NE 23 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 37 37 NE 22 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 37 37 NE 21 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 37 37 NE 20 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 36 36 NE 21 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 36 36 NE 22 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 35 35 NE 23 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 35 35 NE 24 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 35 35 E 24 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 36 36 E 24 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 37 37 E 24 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 39 40 E 24 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 40 42 E 24 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 41 43 E 24 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 43 45 E 23 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 43 45 E 22 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 42 43 E 20 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 41 41 E 17 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 39 39 E 16 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 38 38 E 16 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 37 37 E 17 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 36 36 E 18 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 36 36 E 18 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 36 36 E 18 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 36 36 E 18 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 36 36 E 18 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 35 35 E 18 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 35 35 E 18 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 35 35 E 18 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 34 34 E 18 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 34 34 E 18 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 34 34 E 16 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 33 33 E 14 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 34 34 E 13 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 36 36 E 13 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 38 39 E 13 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 40 42 E 14 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 42 44 E 14 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 44 46 E 14 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 45 47 E 14 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 44 45 E 13 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 43 43 E 13 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 41 41 E 12 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 40 40 E 12 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 39 39 E 12 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 38 38 E 12 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 38 38 E 12 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 38 38 NE 12 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 38 38 NE 12 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 38 38 NE 12 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 37 37 NE 13 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 37 37 NE 13 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 37 37 NE 13 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 36 36 NE 13 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 36 36 NE 13 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 36 36 NE 12 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 36 36 E 10 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 37 37 E 10 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 39 39 E 12 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 41 42 E 13 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 44 46 E 14 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 46 48 E 15 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 48 50 E 15 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 49 51 E 15 5673 7700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 48 49 E 14 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 47 47 E 13 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 45 45 E 12 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 44 44 E 12 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 43 43 E 13 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 42 42 E 14 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 42 42 E 14 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 41 41 E 14 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 41 41 E 14 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 41 41 E 14 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 40 40 NE 14 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 40 40 NE 14 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 40 40 NE 14 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 39 39 NE 13 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 39 39 NE 13 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 39 39 NE 12 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 38 38 E 10 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 39 39 E 10 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 41 41 E 10 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 44 45 E 10 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 46 48 E 12 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 48 50 E 13 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 50 52 E 14 5783 7700 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sun 50 51 E 14 5673 7700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 49 50 E 13 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 47 47 E 12 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 45 45 E 10 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 44 44 E 10 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 43 43 E 12 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 42 42 NE 13 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 42 42 NE 13 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 42 42 E 13 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 42 42 E 13 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 42 42 E 12 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 41 41 NE 12 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 41 41 NE 10 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 40 40 NE 10 4984 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 39 39 NE 12 4984 7700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com