Detailed Predictions for: Pinal Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 7700
LZ Altitude (f): 5000
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 39 39 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 38 38 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 40 40 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 40 40 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 45 45 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 47 48 SE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 50 51 SE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 52 54 SE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 52 54 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 53 54 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 53 54 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 52 52 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 48 48 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 47 47 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 46 46 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 46 46 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 45 45 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 45 45 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 44 44 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 45 45 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 44 44 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 44 44 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 44 44 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 44 44 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 44 44 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 45 45 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 45 45 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 45 45 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 45 45 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 45 46 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 46 47 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 48 50 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 48 50 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 47 49 NW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 47 48 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 46 46 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 45 45 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 44 44 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 42 42 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 41 41 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 40 40 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 39 39 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 39 39 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 38 38 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 38 38 NE 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 38 38 NE 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 38 38 NE 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 38 38 NE 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 38 38 NE 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 37 37 NE 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 37 37 NE 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 38 38 NE 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 40 40 NE 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 43 44 NE 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 46 48 NE 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 48 51 NE 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 49 52 NE 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 50 52 NE 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 50 51 NE 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 49 49 NE 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 48 48 NE 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 47 47 NE 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 45 45 NE 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 44 44 NE 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 43 43 NE 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 42 42 NE 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 42 42 NE 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 42 42 NE 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 41 41 NE 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 41 41 NE 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 41 41 NE 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 40 40 NE 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 40 40 NE 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 40 40 NE 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 41 41 NE 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 42 42 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 44 44 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 47 48 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 50 51 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 53 54 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 54 55 E 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 55 56 E 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 54 54 E 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 53 53 E 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 51 51 E 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 49 49 E 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 48 48 E 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 47 47 E 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 46 46 E 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 46 46 E 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 45 45 E 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 45 45 E 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 44 44 SE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 44 44 S 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 44 44 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 43 43 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 43 43 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 42 42 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 42 42 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 43 43 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 45 45 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 48 49 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 50 52 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 51 53 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 51 53 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 50 52 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 48 49 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 47 47 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 45 45 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 44 44 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 42 42 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 41 41 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 40 40 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 38 38 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 37 37 NW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 35 35 NW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 34 34 NW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 33 33 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 32 32 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 32 32 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 31 31 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 30 30 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 30 30 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 31 31 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 34 34 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 37 38 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 40 42 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 43 45 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 44 46 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 45 47 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 44 45 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 43 43 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 42 42 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 41 41 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 41 41 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 40 40 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 39 39 NE 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 38 38 NE 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 37 37 NE 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 36 36 NE 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 35 35 NE 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 35 35 NE 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 35 35 NE 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 34 34 NE 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com