Detailed Predictions for: Pinal Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 7700
LZ Altitude (f): 5000
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

27 MAY 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sun 55 55 NW 5 5285 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 54 55 W 3 5285 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 60 62 S 2 6222 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 63 67 S 2 7828 7700 0 Blue 5
10 AM Sun 65 71 S 3 9135 8149 449 Blue 8
11 AM Sun 67 75 S 6 10098 9407 1707 Blue 12
12 Noon Sun 70 78 SW 9 10761 10067 2367 Blue 15
1 PM Sun 72 80 SW 12 11890 10503 2803 Blue 17
2 PM Sun 73 80 SW 13 11890 10503 2803 Blue 17
3 PM Sun 74 79 SW 14 11270 10281 2581 Blue 16
4 PM Sun 74 77 SW 15 10539 9861 2161 Blue 14
5 PM Sun 74 75 W 15 10098 9407 1707 Blue 12
6 PM Sun 73 73 W 15 9683 8788 1088 Blue 10
7 PM Sun 71 71 W 14 9135 8149 449 Blue 8
8 PM Sun 69 69 W 13 8505 7700 0 Blue 6
9 PM Sun 66 66 W 10 7474 7700 0 Blue 4
10 PM Sun 64 64 W 10 6872 7700 0 Blue 2
11 PM Sun 64 64 NW 9 6872 7700 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Mon 63 63 NW 9 6613 7700 0 Blue 1
1 AM Mon 63 63 NW 8 6613 7700 0 Blue 1
2 AM Mon 62 62 NW 7 6222 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 61 61 NW 6 5648 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 61 61 NW 6 5648 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 59 59 NW 6 5285 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 58 58 N 5 5285 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 61 62 N 5 6222 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 65 67 NE 3 7828 7700 0 Blue 5
9 AM Mon 69 73 E 3 9683 8788 1088 Blue 10
10 AM Mon 71 77 SE 3 10539 9861 2161 Blue 14
11 AM Mon 73 81 S 5 12485 10724 3024 Blue 18
12 Noon Mon 75 84 W 7 14140 12354 4654 Blue 21
1 PM Mon 77 85 W 8 14656 12919 5219 Blue 22
2 PM Mon 78 85 W 10 14656 12919 5219 Blue 22
3 PM Mon 79 84 W 12 14140 12354 4654 Blue 21
4 PM Mon 80 83 W 13 13607 11766 4066 Blue 20
5 PM Mon 80 81 W 14 12485 10724 3024 Blue 18
6 PM Mon 78 78 W 14 10761 10067 2367 Blue 15
7 PM Mon 76 76 W 14 10316 9655 1955 Blue 13
8 PM Mon 72 72 W 13 9446 8474 774 Blue 9
9 PM Mon 69 69 W 12 8505 7700 0 Blue 6
10 PM Mon 68 68 W 10 8178 7700 0 Blue 6
11 PM Mon 67 67 NW 9 7828 7700 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Tue 67 67 NW 8 7828 7700 0 Blue 5
1 AM Tue 67 67 NW 7 7828 7700 0 Blue 5
2 AM Tue 66 66 NW 6 7474 7700 0 Blue 4
3 AM Tue 65 65 N 5 7129 7700 0 Blue 3
4 AM Tue 63 63 N 5 6613 7700 0 Blue 1
5 AM Tue 61 61 N 5 5648 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 61 61 N 5 5648 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 64 64 N 5 6872 7700 0 Blue 2
8 AM Tue 68 70 NE 5 8821 7802 102 Blue 7
9 AM Tue 72 76 NE 5 10316 9655 1955 Blue 13
10 AM Tue 75 80 N 5 11890 10503 2803 Blue 17
11 AM Tue 77 84 W 6 14140 12354 4654 Blue 21
12 Noon Tue 79 86 W 8 15157 13465 5765 Blue 23
1 PM Tue 80 87 W 9 16038 13992 6292 Blue 24
2 PM Tue 81 87 W 12 16038 13992 6292 Blue 24
3 PM Tue 82 87 W 13 16038 13992 6292 Blue 24
4 PM Tue 83 86 W 14 15157 13465 5765 Blue 23
5 PM Tue 83 84 W 15 14140 12354 4654 Blue 21
6 PM Tue 82 82 W 15 13056 11153 3453 Blue 19
7 PM Tue 80 80 W 14 11890 10503 2803 Blue 17
8 PM Tue 77 77 W 13 10539 9861 2161 Blue 14
9 PM Tue 74 74 W 10 9890 9099 1399 Blue 11
10 PM Tue 72 72 W 9 9446 8474 774 Blue 9
11 PM Tue 71 71 W 8 9135 8149 449 Blue 8
12 Midnight Wed 70 70 W 7 8821 7802 102 Blue 7
1 AM Wed 69 69 NW 6 8505 7700 0 Blue 6
2 AM Wed 68 68 NW 5 8178 7700 0 Blue 6
3 AM Wed 67 67 NW 3 7828 7700 0 Blue 5
4 AM Wed 65 65 NW 3 7129 7700 0 Blue 3
5 AM Wed 63 63 W 5 6613 7700 0 Blue 1
6 AM Wed 63 63 W 6 6613 7700 0 Blue 1
7 AM Wed 66 67 W 6 7828 7700 0 Blue 5
8 AM Wed 70 72 SW 7 9446 8474 774 Blue 9
9 AM Wed 74 78 SW 8 10761 10067 2367 Blue 15
10 AM Wed 77 83 SW 8 13607 11766 4066 Blue 20
11 AM Wed 78 86 SW 9 15157 13465 5765 Blue 23
12 Noon Wed 80 89 SW 10 18141 15001 7301 Blue 26
1 PM Wed 81 89 SW 12 18141 15001 7301 Blue 26
2 PM Wed 83 90 SW 13 18474 15526 7826 Blue 27
3 PM Wed 84 90 SW 14 18474 15526 7826 Blue 27
4 PM Wed 84 87 SW 15 16038 13992 6292 Blue 24
5 PM Wed 83 84 SW 16 14140 12354 4654 Blue 21
6 PM Wed 82 82 SW 17 13056 11153 3453 Blue 19
7 PM Wed 79 79 SW 16 11270 10281 2581 Blue 16
8 PM Wed 77 77 SW 16 10539 9861 2161 Blue 14
9 PM Wed 74 74 SW 15 9890 9099 1399 Blue 11
10 PM Wed 72 72 W 13 9446 8474 774 Blue 9
11 PM Wed 70 70 W 12 8821 7802 102 Blue 7
12 Midnight Thu 69 69 W 10 8505 7700 0 Blue 6
1 AM Thu 68 68 SW 9 8178 7700 0 Blue 6
2 AM Thu 67 67 SW 8 7828 7700 0 Blue 5
3 AM Thu 65 65 SW 7 7129 7700 0 Blue 3
4 AM Thu 63 63 S 7 6613 7700 0 Blue 1
5 AM Thu 61 61 S 6 5648 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 61 61 S 6 5648 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 64 65 S 7 7129 7700 0 Blue 3
8 AM Thu 68 70 S 8 8821 7802 102 Blue 7
9 AM Thu 72 76 S 9 10316 9655 1955 Blue 13
10 AM Thu 76 82 S 10 13056 11153 3453 Blue 19
11 AM Thu 78 85 S 13 14656 12919 5219 Blue 22
12 Noon Thu 80 88 S 14 17320 14504 6804 Blue 25
1 PM Thu 81 88 S 15 17320 14504 6804 Blue 25
2 PM Thu 83 89 SW 16 18141 15001 7301 Blue 26
3 PM Thu 84 88 SW 18 17320 14504 6804 Blue 25
4 PM Thu 84 87 SW 18 16038 13992 6292 Blue 24
5 PM Thu 83 84 SW 20 14140 12354 4654 Blue 21
6 PM Thu 82 82 SW 20 13056 11153 3453 Blue 19
7 PM Thu 79 79 SW 18 11270 10281 2581 Blue 16
8 PM Thu 76 76 SW 17 10316 9655 1955 Blue 13
9 PM Thu 73 73 SW 16 9683 8788 1088 Blue 10
10 PM Thu 71 71 SW 14 9135 8149 449 Blue 8
11 PM Thu 69 69 W 12 8505 7700 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Fri 67 67 W 10 7828 7700 0 Blue 5
1 AM Fri 66 66 W 9 7474 7700 0 Blue 4
2 AM Fri 66 66 SW 8 7474 7700 0 Blue 4
3 AM Fri 64 64 SW 7 6872 7700 0 Blue 2
4 AM Fri 62 62 SW 6 6222 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 60 60 SW 6 5285 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 60 60 SW 6 5285 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 62 63 SW 7 6613 7700 0 Blue 1
8 AM Fri 66 68 SW 8 8178 7700 0 Blue 6
9 AM Fri 70 74 SW 9 9890 9099 1399 Blue 11
10 AM Fri 72 78 SW 10 10761 10067 2367 Blue 15
11 AM Fri 75 83 SW 12 13607 11766 4066 Blue 20
12 Noon Fri 76 85 SW 13 14656 12919 5219 Blue 22
1 PM Fri 78 87 SW 14 16038 13992 6292 Blue 24
2 PM Fri 79 87 SW 16 16038 13992 6292 Blue 24
3 PM Fri 80 86 SW 17 15157 13465 5765 Blue 23
4 PM Fri 81 84 W 17 14140 12354 4654 Blue 21
5 PM Fri 81 83 W 18 13607 11766 4066 Blue 20
6 PM Fri 79 79 W 17 11270 10281 2581 Blue 16
7 PM Fri 76 76 W 16 10316 9655 1955 Blue 13
8 PM Fri 73 73 W 14 9683 8788 1088 Blue 10
9 PM Fri 70 70 NW 12 8821 7802 102 Blue 7
10 PM Fri 68 68 NW 9 8178 7700 0 Blue 6
11 PM Fri 67 67 N 7 7828 7700 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sat 67 67 N 5 7828 7700 0 Blue 5
1 AM Sat 66 66 N 5 7474 7700 0 Blue 4
2 AM Sat 65 65 N 5 7129 7700 0 Blue 3
3 AM Sat 63 63 N 5 6613 7700 0 Blue 1
4 AM Sat 61 61 NE 6 5648 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 60 60 NE 7 5285 7700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com