Detailed Predictions for: Pinal Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 7700
LZ Altitude (f): 5000
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 29 29 E 22 5200 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 29 29 E 22 5200 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 30 30 E 22 5200 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 32 32 E 22 5200 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 35 36 E 22 7009 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 37 39 E 21 7411 7700 0 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 40 43 E 21 7698 7700 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 41 44 E 20 7932 7700 0 Blue 8
1 PM Tue 42 45 E 18 8287 7700 0 Blue 9
2 PM Tue 43 45 E 17 8287 7700 0 Blue 9
3 PM Tue 44 45 E 16 8287 7700 0 Blue 9
4 PM Tue 42 42 E 15 7556 7700 0 Blue 6
5 PM Tue 38 38 E 15 7365 7700 0 Blue 2
6 PM Tue 36 36 E 15 7009 7700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 35 35 E 16 6194 7700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 35 35 E 16 6194 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 35 35 E 17 6194 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 34 34 E 17 5204 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 34 34 E 18 5204 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 34 34 E 18 5204 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 34 34 E 18 5204 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 34 34 E 18 5204 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 34 34 E 18 5204 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 33 33 E 18 5200 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 33 33 E 18 5200 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 33 33 E 18 5200 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 34 34 E 20 5204 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 37 37 E 20 7232 7700 0 Blue 1
9 AM Wed 40 40 E 20 7456 7700 0 Blue 4
10 AM Wed 42 43 E 20 7698 7700 0 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 44 46 E 20 8609 7700 0 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 46 48 E 18 8690 8254 554 Blue 12
1 PM Wed 47 49 E 17 8731 8601 901 Blue 13
2 PM Wed 48 49 E 17 8731 8601 901 Blue 13
3 PM Wed 49 50 E 16 8771 8645 945 Blue 14
4 PM Wed 47 47 E 15 8650 7903 203 Blue 11
5 PM Wed 43 43 E 14 7698 7700 0 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 40 40 E 14 7456 7700 0 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 39 39 E 14 7411 7700 0 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 39 39 E 14 7411 7700 0 Blue 3
9 PM Wed 39 39 E 14 7411 7700 0 Blue 3
10 PM Wed 39 39 E 15 7411 7700 0 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 38 38 E 15 7365 7700 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Thu 38 38 E 15 7365 7700 0 Blue 2
1 AM Thu 38 38 E 15 7365 7700 0 Blue 2
2 AM Thu 38 38 E 16 7365 7700 0 Blue 2
3 AM Thu 38 38 E 16 7365 7700 0 Blue 2
4 AM Thu 37 37 E 16 7232 7700 0 Blue 1
5 AM Thu 37 37 E 16 7232 7700 0 Blue 1
6 AM Thu 37 37 E 16 7232 7700 0 Blue 1
7 AM Thu 38 38 E 16 7365 7700 0 Blue 2
8 AM Thu 41 41 E 16 7502 7700 0 Blue 5
9 AM Thu 44 45 E 16 8287 7700 0 Blue 9
10 AM Thu 47 49 E 15 8731 8601 901 Blue 13
11 AM Thu 49 52 E 15 8852 8726 1026 Blue 16
12 Noon Thu 51 54 E 14 8984 8807 1107 Blue 18
1 PM Thu 52 55 E 13 9070 8847 1147 Blue 19
2 PM Thu 53 55 E 12 9070 8847 1147 Blue 19
3 PM Thu 54 55 E 10 9070 8847 1147 Blue 19
4 PM Thu 52 52 E 10 8852 8726 1026 Blue 16
5 PM Thu 47 47 E 9 8650 7903 203 Blue 11
6 PM Thu 44 44 E 9 7932 7700 0 Blue 8
7 PM Thu 43 43 E 9 7698 7700 0 Blue 7
8 PM Thu 42 42 E 9 7556 7700 0 Blue 6
9 PM Thu 42 42 E 9 7556 7700 0 Blue 6
10 PM Thu 42 42 E 10 7556 7700 0 Blue 6
11 PM Thu 42 42 E 10 7556 7700 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Fri 41 41 E 10 7502 7700 0 Blue 5
1 AM Fri 41 41 E 10 7502 7700 0 Blue 5
2 AM Fri 41 41 E 10 7502 7700 0 Blue 5
3 AM Fri 41 41 E 10 7502 7700 0 Blue 5
4 AM Fri 40 40 E 9 7456 7700 0 Blue 4
5 AM Fri 40 40 E 9 7456 7700 0 Blue 4
6 AM Fri 40 40 E 9 7456 7700 0 Blue 4
7 AM Fri 41 41 SE 8 7502 7700 0 Blue 5
8 AM Fri 44 44 SE 7 7932 7700 0 Blue 8
9 AM Fri 47 48 SE 7 8690 8254 554 Blue 12
10 AM Fri 49 51 SE 6 8812 8686 986 Blue 15
11 AM Fri 51 53 SE 6 8898 8767 1067 Blue 17
12 Noon Fri 53 56 S 6 9183 8888 1188 Blue 20
1 PM Fri 54 57 S 6 9390 8974 1274 Blue 21
2 PM Fri 55 57 SW 6 9390 8974 1274 Blue 21
3 PM Fri 56 57 SW 7 9390 8974 1274 Blue 21
4 PM Fri 54 54 W 7 8984 8807 1107 Blue 18
5 PM Fri 49 49 W 7 8731 8601 901 Blue 13
6 PM Fri 46 46 W 7 8609 7700 0 Blue 10
7 PM Fri 45 45 W 7 8287 7700 0 Blue 9
8 PM Fri 44 44 SW 7 7932 7700 0 Blue 8
9 PM Fri 44 44 SW 7 7932 7700 0 Blue 8
10 PM Fri 44 44 SW 7 7932 7700 0 Blue 8
11 PM Fri 44 44 SW 7 7932 7700 0 Blue 8
12 Midnight Sat 43 43 SW 7 7698 7700 0 Blue 7
1 AM Sat 43 43 SW 6 7698 7700 0 Blue 7
2 AM Sat 43 43 SW 6 7698 7700 0 Blue 7
3 AM Sat 43 43 SW 6 7698 7700 0 Blue 7
4 AM Sat 42 42 SW 5 7556 7700 0 Blue 6
5 AM Sat 42 42 SW 5 7556 7700 0 Blue 6
6 AM Sat 42 42 SW 5 7556 7700 0 Blue 6
7 AM Sat 43 43 SW 5 7698 7700 0 Blue 7
8 AM Sat 45 45 SW 5 8287 7700 0 Blue 9
9 AM Sat 48 48 S 5 8690 8254 554 Blue 12
10 AM Sat 50 51 S 6 8812 8686 986 Blue 15
11 AM Sat 52 54 S 6 8984 8807 1107 Blue 18
12 Noon Sat 53 55 SW 6 9070 8847 1147 Blue 19
1 PM Sat 54 56 SW 7 9183 8888 1188 Blue 20
2 PM Sat 55 56 SW 7 9183 8888 1188 Blue 20
3 PM Sat 56 57 SW 8 9390 8974 1274 Blue 21
4 PM Sat 54 54 W 8 8984 8807 1107 Blue 18
5 PM Sat 48 48 W 8 8690 8254 554 Blue 12
6 PM Sat 45 45 W 8 8287 7700 0 Blue 9
7 PM Sat 44 44 W 8 7932 7700 0 Blue 8
8 PM Sat 43 43 SW 7 7698 7700 0 Blue 7
9 PM Sat 43 43 SW 7 7698 7700 0 Blue 7
10 PM Sat 43 43 SW 6 7698 7700 0 Blue 7
11 PM Sat 43 43 SW 6 7698 7700 0 Blue 7
12 Midnight Sun 42 42 SW 6 7556 7700 0 Blue 6
1 AM Sun 42 42 SW 6 7556 7700 0 Blue 6
2 AM Sun 42 42 S 6 7556 7700 0 Blue 6
3 AM Sun 42 42 S 6 7556 7700 0 Blue 6
4 AM Sun 41 41 S 6 7502 7700 0 Blue 5
5 AM Sun 41 41 S 6 7502 7700 0 Blue 5
6 AM Sun 41 41 S 6 7502 7700 0 Blue 5
7 AM Sun 42 42 S 7 7556 7700 0 Blue 6
8 AM Sun 44 44 S 7 7932 7700 0 Blue 8
9 AM Sun 47 47 S 7 8650 7903 203 Blue 11
10 AM Sun 49 50 S 8 8771 8645 945 Blue 14
11 AM Sun 51 53 S 8 8898 8767 1067 Blue 17
12 Noon Sun 52 54 S 8 8984 8807 1107 Blue 18
1 PM Sun 53 55 S 8 9070 8847 1147 Blue 19
2 PM Sun 54 55 S 8 9070 8847 1147 Blue 19
3 PM Sun 55 56 S 7 9183 8888 1188 Blue 20
4 PM Sun 53 53 SW 7 8898 8767 1067 Blue 17
5 PM Sun 49 49 SW 7 8731 8601 901 Blue 13
6 PM Sun 46 46 SW 7 8609 7700 0 Blue 10
7 PM Sun 45 45 S 7 8287 7700 0 Blue 9
8 PM Sun 45 45 S 8 8287 7700 0 Blue 9
9 PM Sun 45 45 S 8 8287 7700 0 Blue 9
10 PM Sun 45 45 S 9 8287 7700 0 Blue 9
11 PM Sun 44 44 S 9 7932 7700 0 Blue 8
12 Midnight Mon 44 44 SE 9 7932 7700 0 Blue 8
1 AM Mon 44 44 SE 10 7932 7700 0 Blue 8
2 AM Mon 44 44 SE 10 7932 7700 0 Blue 8
3 AM Mon 44 44 SE 10 7932 7700 0 Blue 8
4 AM Mon 43 43 SE 12 7698 7700 0 Blue 7

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com