Detailed Predictions for: Pinal Peak
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.2667, -110.82, 7700
LZ Altitude (f): 5000
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Fri 43 43 N 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 42 42 NNE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 41 41 NNE 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 38 38 WSW 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 39 39 NNE 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 39 39 NNE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 36 36 NNE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 39 39 N 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 41 41 NNE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 41 42 N 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 45 47 ESE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 49 50 SW 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 51 55 NW 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 54 54 WNW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 56 56 W 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 58 61 WSW 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 58 58 WSW 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 57 57 WSW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 57 57 WSW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 55 55 WSW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 52 52 WSW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 45 45 W 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 48 48 WSW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 46 46 WSW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 44 44 SW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 43 43 WSW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 42 42 W 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 41 41 SW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 40 40 WSW 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 39 39 SW 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 38 38 SW 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 40 40 SSE 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 43 43 SE 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 44 45 SSW 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 48 51 SE 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 51 55 S 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 55 60 SW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 56 60 SW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 58 62 WSW 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 60 63 WSW 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 59 60 WSW 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 57 57 WSW 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 57 57 W 13 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 55 55 W 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 53 53 WNW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 46 46 WNW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 49 49 WNW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 47 47 W 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 45 45 SW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 44 44 WSW 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 43 43 SW 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 43 43 SSW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 41 41 SW 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 40 40 SW 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 40 40 SW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 41 41 W 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 42 42 W 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 42 43 WSW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 46 49 W 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 49 53 WSW 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 50 55 SW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 52 57 SW 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 53 57 SW 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 49 52 WSW 14 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 52 53 WSW 14 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 50 50 WSW 13 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 47 47 N 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 46 46 WNW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 44 44 NW 7 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 40 40 N 12 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 41 41 NNW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 41 41 NNW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com