Detailed Predictions for: Pinal Peak
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.2667, -110.82, 7700
LZ Altitude (f): 5000
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

16 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 71 71 NW 10 13 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 71 71 NW 9 12 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 69 69 NW 9 9 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 69 69 NW 5 10 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 69 69 NW 5 10 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 69 69 NW 5 9 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 69 69 NNW 5 8 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 70 70 NNW 5 8 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 74 75 W 5 6 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 77 79 SSW 5 8 9177 7700 0 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 79 83 SW 6 11 15735 9805 2105 Blue 6
11 AM Thu 81 87 WSW 8 13 16443 15779 8079 Blue 10
12 Noon Thu 82 89 W 10 16 16908 15970 8270 Blue 12
1 PM Thu 83 89 W 10 17 16908 15970 8270 Blue 12
2 PM Thu 83 88 W 10 17 16773 15873 8173 Blue 11
3 PM Thu 84 88 W 11 18 16773 15873 8173 Blue 11
4 PM Thu 83 85 W 11 17 15907 15644 7944 Blue 8
5 PM Thu 81 81 W 11 17 15528 8336 636 Blue 4
6 PM Thu 79 79 W 10 14 9177 7700 0 Blue 2
7 PM Thu 75 75 NW 9 13 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 74 74 NNW 8 12 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 74 74 NNW 9 12 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 73 73 N 8 12 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 72 72 N 6 10 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 72 72 N 6 9 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 71 71 N 6 8 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 69 69 N 5 8 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 69 69 NW 6 9 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 68 68 WNW 6 8 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 68 68 WNW 6 9 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 69 69 NNW 6 9 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 70 70 N 3 8 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 72 72 ENE 5 8 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 74 75 ESE 6 6 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 77 80 SE 5 8 9901 7700 0 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 79 83 S 5 10 15735 9805 2105 Blue 6
12 Noon Fri 81 86 SSW 6 6 16092 15712 8012 Blue 9
1 PM Fri 82 87 SW 8 8 16443 15779 8079 Blue 10
2 PM Fri 82 86 SW 9 9 16092 15712 8012 Blue 9
3 PM Fri 82 85 WSW 9 13 15907 15644 7944 Blue 8
4 PM Fri 81 83 WSW 10 14 15735 9805 2105 Blue 6
5 PM Fri 79 79 W 10 14 9177 7700 0 Blue 2
6 PM Fri 77 77 W 10 14 7518 7700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 75 75 W 10 14 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 73 73 W 10 13 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 72 72 W 9 9 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 71 71 NW 8 8 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 71 71 NW 6 6 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 71 71 NNW 6 6 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 70 70 NNW 5 5 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 70 70 N 5 5 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 69 69 N 5 5 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 68 68 NNE 5 5 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 68 68 NNE 5 5 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 69 69 NE 5 5 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 70 70 ENE 6 6 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 72 73 ENE 6 6 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 74 76 ESE 5 5 6179 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 77 81 S 5 5 15528 8336 636 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 79 84 SSW 5 5 15809 14776 7076 Blue 7
12 Noon Sat 81 87 SW 6 6 16443 15779 8079 Blue 10
1 PM Sat 82 88 SW 9 9 16773 15873 8173 Blue 11
2 PM Sat 82 87 WSW 10 14 16443 15779 8079 Blue 10
3 PM Sat 82 85 WSW 11 16 15907 15644 7944 Blue 8
4 PM Sat 81 83 WSW 11 16 15735 9805 2105 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 79 79 W 11 14 9177 7700 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sat 77 77 W 10 14 7518 7700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 75 75 W 10 14 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 73 73 WNW 9 13 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 72 72 WNW 8 8 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 71 71 WNW 6 6 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 71 71 NW 5 5 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 70 70 NW 4 4 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 70 70 N 3 3 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 69 69 N 3 3 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 68 68 NNE 4 4 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 68 68 NE 5 5 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 68 68 ENE 6 6 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 69 69 ENE 6 6 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 71 71 E 5 5 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 73 74 E 5 5 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 75 77 ESE 5 5 7518 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 77 81 S 6 6 15528 8336 636 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 79 85 S 8 8 15907 15644 7944 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 81 87 SSW 9 12 16443 15779 8079 Blue 10
1 PM Sun 82 88 SW 11 16 16773 15873 8173 Blue 11
2 PM Sun 82 87 WSW 12 17 16443 15779 8079 Blue 10
3 PM Sun 82 86 WSW 13 18 16092 15712 8012 Blue 9
4 PM Sun 81 83 WSW 13 19 15735 9805 2105 Blue 6
5 PM Sun 80 80 WSW 13 18 9901 7700 0 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 78 78 WSW 12 18 8407 7700 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 75 75 W 11 16 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 73 73 W 10 14 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 72 72 WSW 9 12 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 71 71 WSW 8 8 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 71 71 WSW 6 6 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 70 70 WSW 6 6 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 70 70 SW 6 6 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 69 69 SW 6 6 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 68 68 SW 6 6 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 66 66 SSW 6 6 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 66 66 SSW 6 6 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 67 67 SSW 6 6 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 69 69 S 6 6 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 71 72 S 8 8 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 73 75 SSW 9 9 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 76 80 SW 11 16 9901 7700 0 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 78 84 SW 12 18 15809 14776 7076 Blue 7
12 Noon Mon 79 86 SW 14 20 16092 15712 8012 Blue 9
1 PM Mon 80 86 WSW 16 21 16092 15712 8012 Blue 9
2 PM Mon 80 85 WSW 17 23 15907 15644 7944 Blue 8
3 PM Mon 80 84 WSW 17 24 15809 14776 7076 Blue 7
4 PM Mon 79 81 WSW 17 24 15528 8336 636 Blue 4
5 PM Mon 77 77 W 16 23 7518 7700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 75 75 W 14 20 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 72 72 W 13 18 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 70 70 W 11 16 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 69 69 W 10 14 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 68 68 W 9 13 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 67 67 W 9 9 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 66 66 W 8 8 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 65 65 W 8 8 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 64 64 WSW 9 9 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 63 63 W 8 8 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 62 62 NNW 8 8 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 62 62 N 6 6 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 63 63 NNE 6 6 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 65 65 ENE 6 6 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 67 68 E 6 6 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 69 71 NE 5 5 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 71 75 NW 4 4 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 73 79 W 4 4 9177 7700 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Tue 75 82 W 5 5 15667 9093 1393 Blue 5
1 PM Tue 77 84 W 8 8 15809 14776 7076 Blue 7
2 PM Tue 78 84 W 10 14 15809 14776 7076 Blue 7
3 PM Tue 78 82 W 11 16 15667 9093 1393 Blue 5
4 PM Tue 77 79 W 12 17 9177 7700 0 Blue 2
5 PM Tue 75 76 W 11 16 6179 7700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 73 73 W 10 14 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 70 70 WNW 9 13 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 68 68 WNW 8 8 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 67 67 NW 8 8 4905 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 66 66 N 8 8 4905 7700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com