Detailed Predictions for: Pinal Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 7700
LZ Altitude (f): 5000
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

17 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 39 39 E 15 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 39 39 E 15 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 38 38 E 14 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 38 38 E 14 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 41 41 E 14 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 44 45 E 14 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 48 50 E 14 5351 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 51 53 E 14 5887 7700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 53 55 E 13 6244 7700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 54 56 E 12 6422 7700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 54 55 E 9 6244 7700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 53 53 NE 8 5887 7700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 52 52 NE 7 5709 7700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 50 50 NE 7 5351 7700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 48 48 NE 8 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 46 46 E 8 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 45 45 E 8 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 44 44 E 8 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 44 44 E 8 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 43 43 E 8 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 43 43 E 9 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 43 43 E 9 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 42 42 E 9 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 42 42 E 9 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 41 41 E 9 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 41 41 E 9 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 41 41 E 9 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 42 42 E 9 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 45 45 E 9 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 49 50 E 9 5351 7700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 53 55 E 9 6244 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 56 59 E 9 6957 7700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 57 59 E 8 6957 7700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 58 60 E 8 7555 7700 0 Blue 1
3 PM Thu 57 58 E 6 6777 7700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 56 56 E 5 6422 7700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 54 54 E 3 6066 7700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 52 52 E 5 5709 7700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 50 50 E 5 5351 7700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 48 48 E 6 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 48 48 E 6 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 47 47 E 5 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 47 47 E 5 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 47 47 E 5 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 47 47 E 5 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 46 46 E 6 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 46 46 E 6 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 46 46 E 7 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 45 45 E 7 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 44 44 E 7 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 44 44 E 8 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 45 45 E 8 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 48 48 SE 8 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 53 54 SE 8 6066 7700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 57 58 SE 9 6777 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 60 62 SE 9 9874 7700 0 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 61 63 S 9 10613 7700 0 Blue 4
2 PM Fri 61 62 S 10 9874 7700 0 Blue 3
3 PM Fri 60 61 S 10 8131 7700 0 Blue 2
4 PM Fri 58 58 SW 12 6777 7700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 56 56 SW 12 6422 7700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 55 55 SW 12 6244 7700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 53 53 SW 12 5887 7700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 53 53 SW 12 5887 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 52 52 SW 12 5709 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 51 51 SW 13 5530 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 51 51 SW 13 5530 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 50 50 SW 13 5351 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 49 49 SW 13 5172 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 49 49 SW 14 5172 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 48 48 SW 14 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 48 48 SW 15 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 47 47 SW 15 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 46 46 SW 15 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 44 44 SW 16 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 44 44 SW 16 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 42 42 SW 16 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 41 41 SW 17 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 41 41 SW 17 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 42 43 SW 18 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 43 44 SW 20 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 43 44 W 20 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 42 42 W 21 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 39 39 W 21 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 37 37 W 21 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 36 36 W 20 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 36 36 W 20 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 37 37 W 17 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 37 37 W 16 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 37 37 W 15 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 37 37 W 14 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 35 35 W 13 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 33 33 W 12 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 32 32 W 12 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 33 33 NW 10 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 34 34 NW 10 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 35 35 NW 9 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 34 34 NW 9 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 32 32 NW 8 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 31 31 NW 8 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 32 32 NW 7 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 35 36 NW 7 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 39 41 W 7 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 42 45 W 7 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 44 47 W 7 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 45 47 W 7 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 45 46 W 8 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 44 44 NW 8 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 43 43 NW 8 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 40 40 NW 8 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 39 39 NW 8 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 38 38 N 8 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 39 39 N 7 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 40 40 NE 7 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 41 41 NE 7 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 39 39 NE 8 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 36 36 NE 8 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 35 35 NE 8 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 36 36 NE 9 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 38 38 NE 9 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 40 40 E 9 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 39 39 E 10 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 37 37 E 10 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 36 36 E 10 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 38 38 E 10 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 42 43 E 10 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 46 48 E 10 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 49 51 SE 9 5530 7700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 51 53 S 8 5887 7700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 52 53 S 7 5887 7700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 51 52 SW 7 5709 7700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 49 49 W 6 5172 7700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 46 46 W 5 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 44 44 NW 5 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 42 42 NW 5 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 41 41 N 5 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 42 42 N 5 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 43 43 NE 5 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 43 43 NE 5 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 40 40 NE 6 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 37 37 NE 6 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 36 36 NE 6 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 38 38 NE 6 5066 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 41 41 NE 7 5066 7700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com