Detailed Predictions for: Pinal Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 7700
LZ Altitude (f): 5000
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

26 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 50 50 E 15 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 51 51 E 14 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 51 51 E 14 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 55 56 E 15 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 58 60 E 15 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 61 63 E 15 5365 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 65 67 E 15 7328 7700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 67 69 SE 16 10081 7700 0 Blue 2
2 PM Tue 68 71 S 16 11810 9204 1504 Blue 4
3 PM Tue 69 70 S 16 10957 7700 0 Blue 3
4 PM Tue 69 69 SW 15 10081 7700 0 Blue 2
5 PM Tue 68 68 SW 14 9300 7700 0 Blue 1
6 PM Tue 67 67 W 14 7328 7700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 63 63 W 12 5365 7700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 60 60 W 10 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 59 59 W 10 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 59 59 W 10 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 58 58 SW 10 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 57 57 SW 9 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 57 57 SW 8 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 56 56 SW 8 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 55 55 SW 9 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 55 55 E 8 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 54 54 E 7 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 53 53 E 8 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 54 54 SE 7 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 54 54 E 7 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 57 58 E 8 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 60 62 SE 10 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 62 64 S 12 5873 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 64 66 S 14 6854 7700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 65 66 S 16 6854 7700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 66 66 SW 17 6854 7700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 66 66 SW 18 6854 7700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 66 66 W 18 6854 7700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 65 65 W 17 6369 7700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 64 64 W 16 5873 7700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 62 62 W 15 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 59 59 W 13 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 57 57 W 12 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 56 56 W 12 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 55 55 SW 13 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 55 55 SW 13 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 54 54 SW 13 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 54 54 SW 12 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 53 53 SW 12 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 52 52 SW 12 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 51 51 S 10 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 51 51 S 10 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 52 52 S 10 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 53 54 SW 10 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 55 57 SW 10 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 57 61 SW 12 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 60 66 SW 13 6854 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 62 69 SW 15 10081 7700 0 Blue 2
1 PM Thu 63 70 W 17 10957 7700 0 Blue 3
2 PM Thu 64 69 W 20 10081 7700 0 Blue 2
3 PM Thu 64 68 W 22 9300 7700 0 Blue 1
4 PM Thu 64 66 W 23 6854 7700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 63 63 W 23 5365 7700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 61 61 W 22 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 59 59 W 21 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 56 56 W 20 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 54 54 W 18 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 52 52 W 18 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 51 51 W 18 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 50 50 W 18 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 49 49 W 17 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 49 49 SW 17 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 48 SW 16 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 47 47 SW 15 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 45 45 SW 15 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 45 45 SW 14 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 46 46 SW 13 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 48 49 S 13 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 51 53 S 13 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 53 57 S 13 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 56 62 W 14 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 58 64 W 15 5873 7700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 60 66 W 17 6854 7700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 61 66 W 20 6854 7700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 61 65 W 22 6369 7700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 61 63 W 22 5365 7700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 61 61 W 22 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 60 60 W 21 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 58 58 W 20 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 55 55 W 20 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 52 52 W 18 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 51 51 W 17 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 50 50 W 17 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 49 49 W 16 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 48 48 NW 15 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 47 47 N 15 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 46 46 NE 14 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 45 45 NE 14 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 44 44 NE 14 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 44 44 NE 14 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 45 45 E 15 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 47 47 E 16 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 49 50 E 17 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 52 54 E 17 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 55 58 NE 18 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 58 62 NE 18 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 60 64 N 20 5873 7700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 61 65 NW 21 6369 7700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 62 65 W 22 6369 7700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 62 64 W 23 5873 7700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 61 61 W 23 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 60 60 W 23 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 58 58 W 22 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 55 55 W 22 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 53 53 W 21 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 51 51 NW 21 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 50 50 NE 21 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 49 49 E 21 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 48 48 E 20 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 47 47 E 20 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 46 46 E 18 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 45 45 E 18 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 44 44 E 18 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 44 44 E 18 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 45 45 E 18 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 47 48 E 18 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 49 51 E 18 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 51 55 E 18 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 53 59 E 20 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 55 62 E 21 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 57 63 E 22 5365 7700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 59 64 E 23 5873 7700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 60 64 E 24 5873 7700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 60 62 E 25 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 60 60 E 25 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 59 59 E 25 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 57 57 E 23 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 54 54 E 20 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 52 52 E 17 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 51 51 E 16 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 50 50 E 15 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 49 49 E 15 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 48 48 E 15 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 47 47 E 15 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 46 46 E 15 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 45 45 E 15 4961 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 43 43 E 14 4961 7700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com