Detailed Predictions for: Pinal Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 7700
LZ Altitude (f): 5000
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 70 70 NW 6 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 74 74 W 6 5454 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 74 75 W 6 5785 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 77 79 SW 6 8159 7700 0 Blue 3
10 AM Tue 80 84 SW 6 12641 9388 1688 White 7
11 AM Tue 82 87 W 7 13281 13281 5581 White 10
12 Noon Tue 84 90 W 7 13917 13917 6217 White 13
1 PM Tue 86 91 W 8 14128 14128 6428 White 14
2 PM Tue 86 90 W 9 13917 13917 6217 White 13
3 PM Tue 86 89 W 10 13706 13706 6006 White 12
4 PM Tue 87 88 W 12 13493 13493 5793 White 11
5 PM Tue 86 86 W 13 13067 11421 3721 White 9
6 PM Tue 83 83 W 13 11565 8734 1034 Blue 7
7 PM Tue 81 81 W 13 9441 7700 0 Blue 5
8 PM Tue 77 77 W 12 6695 7700 0 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 75 75 W 10 5785 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 74 74 W 10 5454 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 74 74 W 10 5454 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 72 72 W 9 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 71 71 W 9 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 69 69 W 10 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 69 69 W 10 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 66 66 W 9 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 66 66 W 9 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 65 65 W 8 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 65 65 W 8 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 65 65 W 7 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 70 70 W 7 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 70 70 W 8 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 70 71 W 9 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 73 74 W 10 5454 7700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 70 71 W 10 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 69 69 W 9 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 70 70 W 9 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 70 70 W 9 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 69 69 W 10 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 67 67 W 10 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 66 66 W 9 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 64 64 SW 8 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 63 63 S 7 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 63 63 S 6 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 64 64 SW 6 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 65 65 SW 6 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 65 65 SW 6 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 65 65 W 5 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 65 65 W 5 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 64 64 W 5 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 63 63 W 6 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 62 62 W 6 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 62 62 W 6 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 64 64 NW 6 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 65 66 NW 6 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 67 69 NW 6 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 69 72 NW 6 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 71 74 W 6 5454 7700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 72 75 W 7 5785 7700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 73 76 W 7 6113 7700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 74 76 W 8 6113 7700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 74 75 W 9 5785 7700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 74 74 W 9 5454 7700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 73 73 W 9 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 71 71 W 9 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 69 69 W 8 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 67 67 W 7 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 66 66 SW 7 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 66 66 SW 6 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 66 66 SW 6 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 65 65 SW 6 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 65 65 SW 5 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 64 64 SW 5 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 63 63 SW 5 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 63 63 SW 6 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 62 62 SW 6 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 62 62 SW 6 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 64 64 SW 6 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 65 66 SW 6 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 67 70 W 7 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 70 74 W 7 5454 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 72 76 W 7 6113 7700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 73 78 W 8 7448 7700 0 Blue 2
2 PM Fri 75 79 W 8 8159 7700 0 Blue 3
3 PM Fri 76 79 W 9 8159 7700 0 Blue 3
4 PM Fri 76 77 W 9 6695 7700 0 Blue 1
5 PM Fri 76 76 W 10 6113 7700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 75 75 W 10 5785 7700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 73 73 W 10 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 70 70 W 9 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 68 68 W 8 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 67 67 W 7 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 67 67 W 7 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 67 67 W 6 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 67 67 W 6 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 66 66 W 6 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 65 65 NW 6 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 64 64 N 7 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 63 63 N 7 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 63 63 N 7 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 64 64 NE 7 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 66 66 E 6 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 68 70 E 6 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 71 74 SE 6 5454 7700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 73 77 S 5 6695 7700 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sat 75 79 S 5 8159 7700 0 Blue 3
1 PM Sat 76 80 S 5 8793 7700 0 Blue 4
2 PM Sat 77 81 SW 6 9441 7700 0 Blue 5
3 PM Sat 78 81 SW 6 9441 7700 0 Blue 5
4 PM Sat 78 79 SW 6 8159 7700 0 Blue 3
5 PM Sat 78 78 W 7 7448 7700 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sat 77 77 W 7 6695 7700 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sat 75 75 W 7 5785 7700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 72 72 NW 6 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 70 70 N 6 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 69 69 N 5 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 69 69 NE 5 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 68 68 NE 5 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 68 68 NE 5 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 68 68 NE 6 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 67 67 NE 7 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 66 66 NE 7 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 65 65 E 8 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 65 65 E 8 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 66 66 E 8 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 67 67 E 8 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 70 72 E 7 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 72 75 SE 7 5785 7700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 75 79 SE 6 8159 7700 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Sun 78 83 SE 6 11565 8734 1034 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 79 84 SE 6 12641 9388 1688 White 7
2 PM Sun 80 84 S 7 12641 9388 1688 White 7
3 PM Sun 81 84 S 7 12641 9388 1688 White 7
4 PM Sun 81 82 SW 7 10621 8102 402 Blue 6
5 PM Sun 80 80 SW 8 8793 7700 0 Blue 4
6 PM Sun 79 79 W 8 8159 7700 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sun 77 77 SW 8 6695 7700 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 74 74 SW 7 5454 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 72 72 S 7 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 71 71 S 7 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 70 70 SE 6 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 70 70 SE 6 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 70 70 SE 6 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 69 69 SE 6 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 69 69 SE 7 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 67 67 SE 7 5197 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 66 66 SE 8 5197 7700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com