Detailed Predictions for: Pinal Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 7700
LZ Altitude (f): 5000
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

21 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sat 70 70 W 7 5033 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 70 70 W 8 5033 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 73 73 NW 8 5841 7700 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sat 75 76 NW 9 6468 7700 0 Blue 4
10 AM Sat 77 80 NW 9 7965 7700 0 Blue 8
11 AM Sat 79 83 NW 9 10723 7954 254 Blue 11
12 Noon Sat 82 87 W 9 13853 11176 3476 White 15
1 PM Sat 84 90 W 9 14485 14485 6785 White 18
2 PM Sat 84 89 W 10 14274 14274 6574 White 17
3 PM Sat 85 89 W 12 14274 14274 6574 White 17
4 PM Sat 85 88 W 13 14064 11704 4004 White 16
5 PM Sat 85 86 W 13 13641 10632 2932 White 14
6 PM Sat 83 83 W 14 10723 7954 254 Blue 11
7 PM Sat 83 83 W 14 10723 7954 254 Blue 11
8 PM Sat 80 80 W 13 7965 7700 0 Blue 8
9 PM Sat 77 77 W 12 6676 7700 0 Blue 5
10 PM Sat 76 76 W 10 6468 7700 0 Blue 4
11 PM Sat 76 76 W 9 6468 7700 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sun 75 75 W 8 6260 7700 0 Blue 3
1 AM Sun 75 75 W 7 6260 7700 0 Blue 3
2 AM Sun 75 75 W 6 6260 7700 0 Blue 3
3 AM Sun 73 73 W 6 5841 7700 0 Blue 1
4 AM Sun 72 72 NW 5 5459 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 72 72 NW 5 5459 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 72 72 NW 5 5459 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 72 72 NW 5 5459 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 75 76 NW 5 6468 7700 0 Blue 4
9 AM Sun 78 81 NW 6 8111 7700 0 Blue 9
10 AM Sun 80 84 NW 6 11274 8100 400 Blue 12
11 AM Sun 82 87 NW 7 13853 11176 3476 White 15
12 Noon Sun 84 89 W 8 14274 14274 6574 White 17
1 PM Sun 83 89 W 9 14274 14274 6574 White 17
2 PM Sun 85 90 W 10 14485 14485 6785 White 18
3 PM Sun 88 92 W 12 14906 14906 7206 White 20
4 PM Sun 89 92 W 13 14906 14906 7206 White 20
5 PM Sun 88 89 W 14 14274 14274 6574 White 17
6 PM Sun 87 87 W 14 13853 11176 3476 White 15
7 PM Sun 84 84 W 13 11274 8100 400 Blue 12
8 PM Sun 81 81 W 13 8111 7700 0 Blue 9
9 PM Sun 79 79 W 12 7819 7700 0 Blue 7
10 PM Sun 78 78 W 10 7673 7700 0 Blue 6
11 PM Sun 78 78 W 10 7673 7700 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Mon 78 78 W 9 7673 7700 0 Blue 6
1 AM Mon 78 78 W 8 7673 7700 0 Blue 6
2 AM Mon 77 77 NW 7 6676 7700 0 Blue 5
3 AM Mon 76 76 NW 6 6468 7700 0 Blue 4
4 AM Mon 75 75 NW 5 6260 7700 0 Blue 3
5 AM Mon 75 75 NW 3 6260 7700 0 Blue 3
6 AM Mon 75 75 N 3 6260 7700 0 Blue 3
7 AM Mon 76 76 NW 2 6468 7700 0 Blue 4
8 AM Mon 78 79 NW 2 7819 7700 0 Blue 7
9 AM Mon 81 84 NW 3 11274 8100 400 Blue 12
10 AM Mon 84 88 W 3 14064 11704 4004 White 16
11 AM Mon 88 94 W 5 15325 15325 7625 White 22
12 Noon Mon 90 96 W 6 15734 15734 8034 White 24
1 PM Mon 92 98 W 7 16142 16142 8442 White 26
2 PM Mon 94 100 W 8 16548 16548 8848 White 28
3 PM Mon 94 99 W 10 16345 16345 8645 White 27
4 PM Mon 94 97 W 12 15938 15938 8238 White 25
5 PM Mon 93 94 W 13 15325 15325 7625 White 22
6 PM Mon 92 92 W 14 14906 14906 7206 White 20
7 PM Mon 89 89 W 13 14274 14274 6574 White 17
8 PM Mon 86 86 NW 12 13641 10632 2932 White 14
9 PM Mon 83 83 NW 9 10723 7954 254 Blue 11
10 PM Mon 82 82 NW 8 9361 7809 109 Blue 10
11 PM Mon 81 81 N 6 8111 7700 0 Blue 9
12 Midnight Tue 81 81 N 5 8111 7700 0 Blue 9
1 AM Tue 80 80 N 5 7965 7700 0 Blue 8
2 AM Tue 79 79 N 5 7819 7700 0 Blue 7
3 AM Tue 77 77 NE 6 6676 7700 0 Blue 5
4 AM Tue 76 76 NE 6 6468 7700 0 Blue 4
5 AM Tue 76 76 NE 7 6468 7700 0 Blue 4
6 AM Tue 76 76 NE 8 6468 7700 0 Blue 4
7 AM Tue 77 77 E 8 6676 7700 0 Blue 5
8 AM Tue 80 81 E 9 8111 7700 0 Blue 9
9 AM Tue 82 85 E 9 11807 9114 1414 Blue 13
10 AM Tue 86 91 E 10 14696 14696 6996 White 19
11 AM Tue 89 95 E 10 15530 15530 7830 White 23
12 Noon Tue 92 99 SE 12 16345 16345 8645 White 27
1 PM Tue 94 101 SE 12 16750 16750 9050 White 29
2 PM Tue 94 100 S 13 16548 16548 8848 White 28
3 PM Tue 95 99 S 13 16345 16345 8645 White 27
4 PM Tue 95 98 SW 13 16142 16142 8442 White 26
5 PM Tue 95 96 W 13 15734 15734 8034 White 24
6 PM Tue 94 94 W 14 15325 15325 7625 White 22
7 PM Tue 91 91 W 14 14696 14696 6996 White 19
8 PM Tue 87 87 SW 14 13853 11176 3476 White 15
9 PM Tue 84 84 S 14 11274 8100 400 Blue 12
10 PM Tue 83 83 S 14 10723 7954 254 Blue 11
11 PM Tue 82 82 SE 14 9361 7809 109 Blue 10
12 Midnight Wed 82 82 SE 14 9361 7809 109 Blue 10
1 AM Wed 81 81 SE 13 8111 7700 0 Blue 9
2 AM Wed 80 80 SE 13 7965 7700 0 Blue 8
3 AM Wed 78 78 E 12 7673 7700 0 Blue 6
4 AM Wed 77 77 E 10 6676 7700 0 Blue 5
5 AM Wed 76 76 E 9 6468 7700 0 Blue 4
6 AM Wed 76 76 E 8 6468 7700 0 Blue 4
7 AM Wed 77 77 E 7 6676 7700 0 Blue 5
8 AM Wed 78 79 SE 7 7819 7700 0 Blue 7
9 AM Wed 81 83 S 6 10723 7954 254 Blue 11
10 AM Wed 84 88 S 5 14064 11704 4004 White 16
11 AM Wed 88 93 S 5 15115 15115 7415 White 21
12 Noon Wed 90 95 SW 5 15530 15530 7830 White 23
1 PM Wed 92 97 SW 6 15938 15938 8238 White 25
2 PM Wed 93 97 SW 8 15938 15938 8238 White 25
3 PM Wed 93 96 W 9 15734 15734 8034 White 24
4 PM Wed 93 95 W 12 15530 15530 7830 White 23
5 PM Wed 93 94 W 13 15325 15325 7625 White 22
6 PM Wed 92 92 NW 14 14906 14906 7206 White 20
7 PM Wed 90 90 W 13 14485 14485 6785 White 18
8 PM Wed 87 87 W 12 13853 11176 3476 White 15
9 PM Wed 85 85 W 10 11807 9114 1414 Blue 13
10 PM Wed 83 83 SW 8 10723 7954 254 Blue 11
11 PM Wed 82 82 SW 7 9361 7809 109 Blue 10
12 Midnight Thu 81 81 S 5 8111 7700 0 Blue 9
1 AM Thu 80 80 S 5 7965 7700 0 Blue 8
2 AM Thu 79 79 S 5 7819 7700 0 Blue 7
3 AM Thu 77 77 S 5 6676 7700 0 Blue 5
4 AM Thu 76 76 S 5 6468 7700 0 Blue 4
5 AM Thu 75 75 S 5 6260 7700 0 Blue 3
6 AM Thu 75 75 S 6 6260 7700 0 Blue 3
7 AM Thu 76 76 S 6 6468 7700 0 Blue 4
8 AM Thu 78 79 S 7 7819 7700 0 Blue 7
9 AM Thu 80 82 S 8 9361 7809 109 Blue 10
10 AM Thu 82 85 SW 8 11807 9114 1414 Blue 13
11 AM Thu 84 88 SW 9 14064 11704 4004 White 16
12 Noon Thu 86 91 SW 10 14696 14696 6996 White 19
1 PM Thu 87 92 W 12 14906 14906 7206 White 20
2 PM Thu 88 92 W 13 14906 14906 7206 White 20
3 PM Thu 89 92 W 14 14906 14906 7206 White 20
4 PM Thu 89 91 W 15 14696 14696 6996 White 19
5 PM Thu 89 90 W 16 14485 14485 6785 White 18
6 PM Thu 88 88 W 16 14064 11704 4004 White 16
7 PM Thu 85 85 W 16 11807 9114 1414 Blue 13
8 PM Thu 83 83 W 15 10723 7954 254 Blue 11
9 PM Thu 80 80 W 15 7965 7700 0 Blue 8
10 PM Thu 79 79 W 14 7819 7700 0 Blue 7
11 PM Thu 78 78 SW 13 7673 7700 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Fri 77 77 SW 12 6676 7700 0 Blue 5
1 AM Fri 76 76 SW 10 6468 7700 0 Blue 4
2 AM Fri 75 75 SW 8 6260 7700 0 Blue 3
3 AM Fri 74 74 SW 7 6051 7700 0 Blue 2
4 AM Fri 73 73 SW 6 5841 7700 0 Blue 1
5 AM Fri 73 73 SW 5 5841 7700 0 Blue 1

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com