Detailed Predictions for: Pinal Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 7700
LZ Altitude (f): 5000
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

19 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 54 54 E 1 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 56 56 E 0 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 54 54 E 0 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 57 57 SE 1 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 61 61 SE 2 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 63 63 SE 3 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 65 66 S 5 8055 7700 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Tue 65 66 S 6 8055 7700 0 Blue 1
1 PM Tue 65 65 S 7 6870 7700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 64 64 SW 8 5613 7700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 59 59 S 7 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 57 57 SE 6 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 55 55 SE 6 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 54 54 SE 7 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 52 52 SE 9 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 54 54 SE 12 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 54 54 SE 13 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 54 54 SE 13 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 55 55 SE 14 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 55 55 S 15 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 54 54 S 16 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 54 54 S 18 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 52 52 S 21 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 51 51 SW 23 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 51 51 SW 24 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 51 51 SW 23 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 49 49 S 22 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 49 49 S 21 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 49 49 S 22 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 49 49 S 24 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 49 49 S 25 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 50 50 S 26 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 50 50 S 28 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 49 49 S 29 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 48 48 S 29 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 46 46 S 29 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 45 45 S 29 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 44 44 S 28 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 44 44 SW 25 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 46 46 SW 23 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 47 47 SW 23 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 48 48 SW 23 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 48 48 SW 23 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 48 48 SW 23 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 48 48 SW 23 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 47 47 SW 22 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 47 47 SW 21 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 46 46 SW 18 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 46 46 SW 17 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 46 46 SW 16 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 46 46 SW 16 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 46 46 SW 16 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 45 45 S 15 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 45 45 S 15 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 44 44 S 15 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 44 44 S 16 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 43 43 SW 17 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 43 43 SW 17 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 42 42 SW 16 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 41 41 SW 15 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 40 40 SW 13 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 40 40 SW 12 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 40 40 SW 12 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 41 41 SW 12 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 42 42 SW 10 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 42 42 SW 10 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 43 43 SW 10 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 43 43 SW 9 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 44 44 S 8 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 44 44 S 7 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 44 44 S 6 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 44 44 S 5 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 44 44 S 3 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 43 43 S 2 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 43 43 S 2 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 43 43 S 1 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 44 44 S 1 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 45 46 S 1 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 46 48 S 2 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 47 49 S 2 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 47 49 SW 3 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 47 48 SW 5 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 46 47 W 6 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 45 45 W 7 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 44 44 NW 7 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 44 44 NW 7 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 43 43 N 7 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 43 43 N 7 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 42 42 N 7 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 42 42 NE 7 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 43 43 NE 6 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 43 43 NE 6 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 43 43 NE 6 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 43 43 NE 6 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 43 43 NE 6 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 42 42 NE 6 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 42 42 NE 6 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 41 41 NE 6 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 42 42 NE 6 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 43 43 E 6 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 44 44 E 6 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 46 47 E 6 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 49 51 E 6 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 50 52 E 6 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 52 54 NE 6 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 52 54 NE 5 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 50 51 N 5 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 48 48 N 3 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 47 47 N 3 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 46 46 N 3 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 46 46 N 3 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 46 46 N 3 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 46 46 NE 5 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 46 46 NE 5 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 46 46 NE 5 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 46 46 NE 5 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 45 45 NE 5 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 45 45 NE 5 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 44 44 NE 3 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 44 44 NE 3 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 43 43 NE 3 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 43 43 NE 3 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 43 43 NE 3 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 44 44 E 3 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 46 46 E 5 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 49 50 E 5 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 52 54 E 5 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 54 56 E 5 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 55 57 SE 5 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 55 56 S 5 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 53 53 SW 6 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 51 51 W 6 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 49 49 W 6 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 47 47 W 5 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 46 46 NW 5 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 46 46 N 3 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 47 47 N 3 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 47 47 NE 2 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 47 47 NE 2 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 47 47 NE 2 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 47 47 E 2 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 46 46 E 2 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 45 45 E 3 5239 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 45 45 SE 3 5239 7700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com