Detailed Predictions for: Pinal Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 7700
LZ Altitude (f): 5000
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

17 SEP 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 63 63 SE 2 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 63 63 SE 2 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 66 67 SE 2 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 68 70 SE 3 5689 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 70 74 S 5 8075 7700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 72 78 SW 6 11413 10047 2347 Blue 4
12 Noon Tue 75 81 SW 7 13377 11348 3648 White 7
1 PM Tue 76 82 SW 9 13587 11698 3998 White 8
2 PM Tue 77 82 SW 10 13587 11698 3998 White 8
3 PM Tue 77 81 W 12 13377 11348 3648 White 7
4 PM Tue 77 79 W 13 11802 10894 3194 Blue 5
5 PM Tue 77 77 W 13 11163 7700 0 Blue 3
6 PM Tue 75 75 W 12 10211 7700 0 Blue 1
7 PM Tue 74 74 W 10 8075 7700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 70 70 W 8 5689 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 68 68 W 6 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 67 67 W 5 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 68 68 S 5 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 68 68 E 3 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 67 67 SE 3 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 66 66 SE 3 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 66 66 SE 2 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 65 65 SE 2 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 64 64 SE 2 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 64 64 SE 2 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 65 65 SE 2 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 67 68 SE 2 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 70 72 SE 3 6363 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 72 76 SE 5 10934 7700 0 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 74 80 S 6 12801 11122 3422 Blue 6
12 Noon Wed 76 83 S 7 13798 12583 4883 White 9
1 PM Wed 78 84 S 9 14008 14008 6308 White 10
2 PM Wed 79 84 SW 12 14008 14008 6308 White 10
3 PM Wed 79 83 SW 14 13798 12583 4883 White 9
4 PM Wed 79 81 SW 14 13377 11348 3648 White 7
5 PM Wed 78 78 SW 14 11413 10047 2347 Blue 4
6 PM Wed 76 76 SW 13 10934 7700 0 Blue 2
7 PM Wed 74 74 SW 12 8075 7700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 72 72 SW 9 6363 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 70 70 SW 8 5689 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 68 68 SW 8 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 68 68 SW 8 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 68 68 SW 9 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 67 67 SW 9 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 67 67 SW 8 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 66 66 SW 7 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 65 65 SW 6 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 64 64 S 5 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 64 64 S 5 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 65 65 S 5 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 67 68 S 6 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 69 71 S 8 6027 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 72 76 S 9 10934 7700 0 Blue 2
11 AM Thu 74 79 S 12 11802 10894 3194 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 76 82 S 14 13587 11698 3998 White 8
1 PM Thu 77 83 S 15 13798 12583 4883 White 9
2 PM Thu 78 83 SW 16 13798 12583 4883 White 9
3 PM Thu 78 81 SW 17 13377 11348 3648 White 7
4 PM Thu 78 80 SW 18 12801 11122 3422 Blue 6
5 PM Thu 77 77 SW 20 11163 7700 0 Blue 3
6 PM Thu 75 75 SW 20 10211 7700 0 Blue 1
7 PM Thu 73 73 SW 18 6695 7700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 70 70 SW 18 5689 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 68 68 SW 17 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 67 67 SW 16 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 66 66 SW 15 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 66 66 SW 14 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 65 65 SW 13 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 64 64 SW 12 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 63 63 S 10 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 62 62 S 9 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 61 61 S 8 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 61 61 S 8 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 62 62 S 8 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 64 65 S 9 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 67 69 S 9 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 70 74 S 10 8075 7700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 72 78 SW 10 11413 10047 2347 Blue 4
12 Noon Fri 74 81 SW 12 13377 11348 3648 White 7
1 PM Fri 76 82 SW 12 13587 11698 3998 White 8
2 PM Fri 77 82 SW 12 13587 11698 3998 White 8
3 PM Fri 77 81 SW 13 13377 11348 3648 White 7
4 PM Fri 77 79 SW 13 11802 10894 3194 Blue 5
5 PM Fri 76 76 SW 12 10934 7700 0 Blue 2
6 PM Fri 74 74 SW 12 8075 7700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 71 71 SW 10 6027 7700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 68 68 SW 8 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 66 66 SW 7 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 65 65 SW 5 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 64 64 SW 3 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 64 64 SW 2 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 64 64 SW 2 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 63 63 S 2 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 62 62 S 2 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 61 61 SE 2 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 60 60 SE 3 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 60 60 E 3 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 62 62 SE 5 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 64 65 SE 5 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 67 69 SE 6 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 70 74 S 6 8075 7700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 72 78 S 7 11413 10047 2347 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 74 80 S 7 12801 11122 3422 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 76 82 S 8 13587 11698 3998 White 8
2 PM Sat 77 82 S 9 13587 11698 3998 White 8
3 PM Sat 78 82 SW 9 13587 11698 3998 White 8
4 PM Sat 78 80 SW 10 12801 11122 3422 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 77 77 W 10 11163 7700 0 Blue 3
6 PM Sat 75 75 W 10 10211 7700 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sat 72 72 W 9 6363 7700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 69 69 W 9 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 66 66 W 8 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 65 65 NW 7 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 65 65 NW 6 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 65 65 NW 5 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 65 65 N 3 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 64 64 N 3 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 63 63 NE 3 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 62 62 E 3 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 61 61 E 3 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 61 61 E 3 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 62 62 SE 3 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 64 65 SE 5 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 67 69 SE 5 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 70 73 S 6 6695 7700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 73 78 S 7 11413 10047 2347 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 75 80 S 8 12801 11122 3422 Blue 6
1 PM Sun 77 82 S 9 13587 11698 3998 White 8
2 PM Sun 78 82 S 10 13587 11698 3998 White 8
3 PM Sun 78 81 SW 12 13377 11348 3648 White 7
4 PM Sun 78 79 SW 13 11802 10894 3194 Blue 5
5 PM Sun 78 78 SW 13 11413 10047 2347 Blue 4
6 PM Sun 76 76 SW 13 10934 7700 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 73 73 SW 12 6695 7700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 70 70 SW 9 5689 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 67 67 SW 7 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 66 66 S 5 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 65 65 S 2 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 65 65 S 1 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 65 65 S 0 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 64 64 S 1 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 63 63 S 1 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 62 62 SE 2 5492 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 61 61 SE 5 5492 7700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com