Detailed Predictions for: Pinal Peak
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.2667, -110.82, 7700
LZ Altitude (f): 5000
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

2 OCT 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 72 72 NW 1 2 11883 11355 3655 White 8
1 AM Sun 70 70 ENE 0 1 11452 9132 1432 White 6
2 AM Sun 69 69 NNE 3 5 11235 8787 1087 White 5
3 AM Sun 67 67 E 2 3 9165 7700 0 Blue 3
4 AM Sun 66 66 NNE 2 4 8817 7700 0 Blue 2
5 AM Sun 65 65 NNE 3 6 8470 7700 0 Blue 1
6 AM Sun 64 64 NE 3 6 7224 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 63 63 ENE 3 6 6246 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 67 67 ENE 4 7 9165 7700 0 Blue 3
9 AM Sun 72 74 ENE 4 6 12312 12312 4612 White 10
10 AM Sun 78 82 E 3 4 14007 14007 6307 White 18
11 AM Sun 86 91 ESE 3 4 15865 15865 8165 White 27
12 Noon Sun 88 93 SE 4 5 16273 16273 8573 White 29
1 PM Sun 90 96 SSE 5 6 16879 16879 9179 White 32
2 PM Sun 91 95 SSE 6 7 16679 16679 8979 White 31
3 PM Sun 89 91 S 6 6 15865 15865 8165 White 27
4 PM Sun 89 90 SSW 4 5 15661 15661 7961 White 26
5 PM Sun 88 88 SW 6 7 15249 15249 7549 White 24
6 PM Sun 79 79 WSW 11 15 13376 13376 5676 White 15
7 PM Sun 82 82 WSW 9 14 14007 14007 6307 White 18
8 PM Sun 79 79 WNW 4 8 13376 13376 5676 White 15
9 PM Sun 71 71 NNW 2 4 11669 10632 2932 White 7
10 PM Sun 74 74 NNW 2 4 12312 12312 4612 White 10
11 PM Sun 71 71 N 4 6 11669 10632 2932 White 7
12 Midnight Mon 68 68 NE 3 5 11017 8444 744 White 4
1 AM Mon 77 77 NE 4 7 12953 12953 5253 White 13
2 AM Mon 76 76 ENE 3 6 12739 12739 5039 White 12
3 AM Mon 64 64 E 3 7 7224 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 74 74 E 3 6 12312 12312 4612 White 10
5 AM Mon 73 73 ENE 4 7 12098 12098 4398 White 9
6 AM Mon 63 63 ENE 4 8 6246 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 72 72 ENE 4 9 11883 11355 3655 White 8
8 AM Mon 72 72 ENE 5 9 11883 11355 3655 White 8
9 AM Mon 71 73 ENE 4 7 12098 12098 4398 White 9
10 AM Mon 77 80 ENE 4 5 13586 13586 5886 White 16
11 AM Mon 84 89 E 4 5 15456 15456 7756 White 25
12 Noon Mon 86 92 E 4 5 16070 16070 8370 White 28
1 PM Mon 87 92 ESE 2 3 16070 16070 8370 White 28
2 PM Mon 87 91 S 1 1 15865 15865 8165 White 27
3 PM Mon 90 93 SW 2 3 16273 16273 8573 White 29
4 PM Mon 87 88 SW 6 7 15249 15249 7549 White 24
5 PM Mon 86 86 WSW 8 9 14837 14837 7137 White 22
6 PM Mon 85 85 W 9 13 14630 14630 6930 White 21
7 PM Mon 81 81 NW 8 12 13797 13797 6097 White 17
8 PM Mon 78 78 NNE 9 16 13165 13165 5465 White 14
9 PM Mon 77 77 NE 12 20 12953 12953 5253 White 13
10 PM Mon 71 71 NE 10 17 11669 10632 2932 White 7
11 PM Mon 71 71 NE 8 13 11669 10632 2932 White 7
12 Midnight Tue 68 68 NE 8 13 11017 8444 744 White 4
1 AM Tue 70 70 NE 7 13 11452 9132 1432 White 6
2 AM Tue 69 69 NE 7 13 11235 8787 1087 White 5
3 AM Tue 63 63 ENE 6 12 6246 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 68 68 NE 6 11 11017 8444 744 White 4
5 AM Tue 67 67 ENE 5 10 9165 7700 0 Blue 3
6 AM Tue 61 61 NE 6 11 6007 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 67 67 ENE 6 11 9165 7700 0 Blue 3
8 AM Tue 68 68 NE 5 10 11017 8444 744 White 4
9 AM Tue 71 73 ENE 4 7 12098 12098 4398 White 9
10 AM Tue 73 74 ENE 4 5 12312 12312 4612 White 10
11 AM Tue 77 82 ENE 2 3 14007 14007 6307 White 18
12 Noon Tue 87 92 ESE 1 1 16070 16070 8370 White 28
1 PM Tue 84 89 WSW 1 1 15456 15456 7756 White 25
2 PM Tue 85 89 W 4 5 15456 15456 7756 White 25
3 PM Tue 88 90 W 7 8 15661 15661 7961 White 26
4 PM Tue 86 87 W 11 12 15043 15043 7343 White 23
5 PM Tue 84 84 NW 9 11 14423 14423 6723 White 20
6 PM Tue 84 84 NNW 4 5 14423 14423 6723 White 20
7 PM Tue 78 78 NNW 2 3 13165 13165 5465 White 14
8 PM Tue 77 77 WNW 2 5 12953 12953 5253 White 13
9 PM Tue 72 72 SW 3 6 11883 11355 3655 White 8
10 PM Tue 72 72 S 4 7 11883 11355 3655 White 8
11 PM Tue 72 72 SSE 3 5 11883 11355 3655 White 8

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com