Detailed Predictions for: Pinal Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 7700
LZ Altitude (f): 5000
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

26 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sun 51 51 S 8 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 53 54 S 8 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 56 58 S 10 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 59 63 S 12 8324 7700 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 60 66 S 16 8984 8316 616 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 62 70 S 21 12109 9245 1545 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 63 72 S 24 12872 9766 2066 Blue 12
1 PM Sun 63 71 S 25 12493 9588 1888 Blue 11
2 PM Sun 64 71 SW 25 12493 9588 1888 Blue 11
3 PM Sun 64 69 SW 24 9791 8964 1264 Blue 9
4 PM Sun 64 67 SW 24 9294 8408 708 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 64 65 SW 23 8752 8231 531 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 62 62 SW 23 8238 7700 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 61 61 SW 22 7743 7700 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 58 58 SW 21 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 56 56 SW 20 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 55 55 SW 20 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 53 53 SW 18 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 52 52 SW 18 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 51 51 SW 17 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 50 50 SW 16 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 48 48 SW 15 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 47 47 SW 15 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 47 47 SW 14 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 46 46 SW 14 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 47 47 SW 14 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 48 49 SW 15 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 49 51 SW 16 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 49 52 SW 16 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 50 53 SW 17 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 51 54 SW 17 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 52 56 SW 17 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 54 58 W 18 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 55 58 W 18 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 56 58 W 18 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 56 57 W 18 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 56 56 W 18 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 54 54 W 17 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 52 52 W 15 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 50 50 W 14 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 49 49 W 13 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 48 48 W 12 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 48 48 W 10 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 47 47 W 9 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 47 47 NW 8 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 46 46 NW 6 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 45 45 NW 5 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 44 44 N 2 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 44 44 N 1 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 46 47 N 1 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 52 NW 2 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 53 58 NW 3 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 55 62 W 6 8238 7700 0 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 57 65 W 7 8752 8231 531 Blue 5
12 Noon Tue 59 68 W 9 9612 8720 1020 Blue 8
1 PM Tue 61 70 W 10 12109 9245 1545 Blue 10
2 PM Tue 63 70 W 12 12109 9245 1545 Blue 10
3 PM Tue 64 70 W 12 12109 9245 1545 Blue 10
4 PM Tue 64 67 W 13 9294 8408 708 Blue 7
5 PM Tue 64 65 W 13 8752 8231 531 Blue 5
6 PM Tue 63 63 W 13 8324 7700 0 Blue 3
7 PM Tue 61 61 W 13 7743 7700 0 Blue 1
8 PM Tue 58 58 W 12 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 56 56 W 12 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 55 55 W 10 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 54 54 NW 9 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 53 53 NW 9 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 53 53 NW 8 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 52 52 NW 7 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 52 52 NW 6 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 51 51 NW 6 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 50 50 NW 5 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 50 50 NW 5 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 52 52 NW 5 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 56 58 NW 6 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 59 63 W 6 8324 7700 0 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 62 68 W 7 9612 8720 1020 Blue 8
11 AM Wed 64 72 W 8 12872 9766 2066 Blue 12
12 Noon Wed 66 75 W 9 15166 12782 5082 White 15
1 PM Wed 68 77 W 9 15578 13889 6189 White 17
2 PM Wed 69 76 W 10 15372 13152 5452 White 16
3 PM Wed 69 75 W 12 15166 12782 5082 White 15
4 PM Wed 69 72 W 12 12872 9766 2066 Blue 12
5 PM Wed 69 70 W 12 12109 9245 1545 Blue 10
6 PM Wed 68 68 W 12 9612 8720 1020 Blue 8
7 PM Wed 66 66 W 12 8984 8316 616 Blue 6
8 PM Wed 63 63 W 10 8324 7700 0 Blue 3
9 PM Wed 61 61 W 9 7743 7700 0 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 60 60 NW 8 7101 7700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 59 59 NW 7 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 58 58 NW 6 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 57 57 NW 6 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 57 57 N 6 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 56 56 N 5 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 54 54 N 5 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 53 53 N 5 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 53 53 NE 5 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 55 56 NE 5 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 59 61 E 5 7743 7700 0 Blue 1
9 AM Thu 63 67 SE 6 9294 8408 708 Blue 7
10 AM Thu 66 73 SE 6 13246 12026 4326 Blue 13
11 AM Thu 69 77 S 6 15578 13889 6189 White 17
12 Noon Thu 71 80 S 7 16191 16191 8491 White 20
1 PM Thu 72 81 SW 7 16396 16396 8696 White 21
2 PM Thu 73 80 SW 8 16191 16191 8491 White 20
3 PM Thu 73 78 SW 8 15783 15213 7513 White 18
4 PM Thu 73 76 SW 9 15372 13152 5452 White 16
5 PM Thu 73 74 W 10 14313 12407 4707 Blue 14
6 PM Thu 72 72 W 10 12872 9766 2066 Blue 12
7 PM Thu 70 70 W 10 12109 9245 1545 Blue 10
8 PM Thu 67 67 W 10 9294 8408 708 Blue 7
9 PM Thu 64 64 W 10 8437 7700 0 Blue 4
10 PM Thu 63 63 W 9 8324 7700 0 Blue 3
11 PM Thu 62 62 NW 9 8238 7700 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Fri 61 61 NW 8 7743 7700 0 Blue 1
1 AM Fri 60 60 NW 7 7101 7700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 59 59 N 6 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 58 58 N 5 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 56 56 N 3 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 56 56 N 2 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 56 56 NE 1 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 57 58 N 2 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 61 63 N 3 8324 7700 0 Blue 3
9 AM Fri 65 69 NW 5 9791 8964 1264 Blue 9
10 AM Fri 68 74 W 6 14313 12407 4707 Blue 14
11 AM Fri 70 78 SW 7 15783 15213 7513 White 18
12 Noon Fri 72 81 SW 8 16396 16396 8696 White 21
1 PM Fri 74 83 SW 9 16797 16797 9097 White 23
2 PM Fri 75 82 SW 10 16597 16597 8897 White 22
3 PM Fri 75 80 SW 12 16191 16191 8491 White 20
4 PM Fri 75 78 SW 13 15783 15213 7513 White 18
5 PM Fri 74 75 W 13 15166 12782 5082 White 15
6 PM Fri 73 73 W 14 13246 12026 4326 Blue 13
7 PM Fri 71 71 W 14 12493 9588 1888 Blue 11
8 PM Fri 68 68 W 13 9612 8720 1020 Blue 8
9 PM Fri 65 65 W 13 8752 8231 531 Blue 5
10 PM Fri 64 64 W 12 8437 7700 0 Blue 4
11 PM Fri 63 63 W 12 8324 7700 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sat 62 62 W 10 8238 7700 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sat 61 61 W 9 7743 7700 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sat 59 59 SW 7 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 58 58 SW 6 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 56 56 SW 5 4793 7700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 55 55 S 3 4793 7700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com