Detailed Predictions for: Rainbow Valley
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.18816, -112.37519, 1125
LZ Altitude (f): 80
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

2 OCT 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 83 83 S 2 9 1151 1125 0 White 0
1 AM Sun 81 81 SE 2 8 1151 1125 0 White 0
2 AM Sun 81 81 ESE 2 5 1151 1125 0 White 0
3 AM Sun 79 79 ESE 2 5 1151 1125 0 White 0
4 AM Sun 78 78 SE 2 4 1151 1125 0 White 0
5 AM Sun 77 77 SE 1 3 1151 1125 0 White 0
6 AM Sun 76 76 SE 2 2 1151 1125 0 White 0
7 AM Sun 76 76 SE 2 2 1151 1125 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 81 81 SE 2 3 1151 1125 0 White 0
9 AM Sun 84 86 ENE 2 3 1151 1125 0 White 0
10 AM Sun 87 90 ENE 2 5 1151 1125 0 White 0
11 AM Sun 90 95 E 3 9 1151 1125 0 White 0
12 Noon Sun 91 96 ESE 3 9 1151 1125 0 White 0
1 PM Sun 93 98 SE 2 9 1151 1125 0 White 0
2 PM Sun 94 98 SSE 2 9 1151 1125 0 White 0
3 PM Sun 95 98 SE 2 8 1151 1125 0 White 0
4 PM Sun 96 97 SSE 2 8 1151 1125 0 White 0
5 PM Sun 95 95 W 2 6 1151 1125 0 White 0
6 PM Sun 93 93 WNW 2 6 1151 1125 0 White 0
7 PM Sun 91 91 WNW 2 5 1151 1125 0 White 0
8 PM Sun 88 88 WNW 2 4 1151 1125 0 White 0
9 PM Sun 87 87 W 2 5 1151 1125 0 White 0
10 PM Sun 85 85 W 2 3 1151 1125 0 White 0
11 PM Sun 84 84 WSW 2 3 1151 1125 0 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 82 82 W 2 5 1151 1125 0 White 0
1 AM Mon 81 81 W 1 3 1151 1125 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 80 80 W 1 3 1151 1125 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 78 78 NE 2 3 1151 1125 0 White 0
4 AM Mon 78 78 ENE 2 2 1151 1125 0 White 0
5 AM Mon 76 76 ENE 1 2 1151 1125 0 White 0
6 AM Mon 76 76 SSE 1 2 1151 1125 0 White 0
7 AM Mon 76 76 SE 2 3 1151 1125 0 White 0
8 AM Mon 80 80 ESE 2 5 1151 1125 0 White 0
9 AM Mon 84 86 E 3 5 1151 1125 0 White 0
10 AM Mon 87 90 E 3 6 1151 1125 0 White 0
11 AM Mon 90 95 E 4 9 1151 1125 0 White 0
12 Noon Mon 93 99 E 4 9 1151 1125 0 White 0
1 PM Mon 95 100 E 3 8 1151 1125 0 White 0
2 PM Mon 96 100 E 2 6 1151 1125 0 White 0
3 PM Mon 97 100 ENE 2 6 1151 1125 0 White 0
4 PM Mon 97 98 N 3 6 1151 1125 0 White 0
5 PM Mon 96 96 NW 4 8 1151 1125 0 White 0
6 PM Mon 94 94 NNW 4 8 1151 1125 0 White 0
7 PM Mon 91 91 N 3 9 1151 1125 0 White 0
8 PM Mon 88 88 N 3 9 1151 1125 0 White 0
9 PM Mon 86 86 NNE 3 9 1151 1125 0 White 0
10 PM Mon 84 84 NE 2 9 1151 1125 0 White 0
11 PM Mon 82 82 ENE 2 8 1151 1125 0 White 0
12 Midnight Tue 80 80 ENE 2 6 1151 1125 0 White 0
1 AM Tue 79 79 ENE 2 6 1151 1125 0 White 0
2 AM Tue 78 78 ENE 2 5 1151 1125 0 White 0
3 AM Tue 76 76 ENE 2 4 1151 1125 0 White 0
4 AM Tue 75 75 ENE 2 4 1151 1125 0 White 0
5 AM Tue 75 75 ENE 2 4 1151 1125 0 White 0
6 AM Tue 76 76 ENE 2 4 1151 1125 0 White 0
7 AM Tue 78 78 E 2 4 1151 1125 0 White 0
8 AM Tue 80 80 E 2 5 1151 1125 0 White 0
9 AM Tue 83 85 E 3 6 1151 1125 0 White 0
10 AM Tue 86 89 E 3 6 1151 1125 0 White 0
11 AM Tue 89 94 E 4 8 1151 1125 0 White 0
12 Noon Tue 92 98 NE 4 8 1151 1125 0 White 0
1 PM Tue 94 100 NNW 3 9 1151 1125 0 White 0
2 PM Tue 95 100 WNW 3 9 1151 1125 0 White 0
3 PM Tue 96 99 WNW 4 10 1151 1125 0 White 0
4 PM Tue 95 97 WNW 5 10 1151 1125 0 White 0
5 PM Tue 94 94 WNW 5 10 1151 1125 0 White 0
6 PM Tue 92 92 W 4 8 1151 1125 0 White 0
7 PM Tue 90 90 WSW 3 5 1151 1125 0 White 0
8 PM Tue 87 87 SW 2 4 1151 1125 0 White 0
9 PM Tue 85 85 SW 2 6 1151 1125 0 White 0
10 PM Tue 83 83 SSW 3 9 1151 1125 0 White 0
11 PM Tue 82 82 SSW 3 11 1151 1125 0 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 81 81 S 3 10 1151 1125 0 White 0
1 AM Wed 79 79 SSE 2 8 1151 1125 0 White 0
2 AM Wed 78 78 SSE 2 5 1151 1125 0 White 0
3 AM Wed 77 77 SE 2 4 1151 1125 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 75 75 ESE 2 4 1151 1125 0 White 0
5 AM Wed 75 75 ESE 2 4 1151 1125 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 76 76 ESE 2 4 1151 1125 0 White 0
7 AM Wed 77 77 E 2 5 1151 1125 0 White 0
8 AM Wed 79 79 E 2 6 1151 1125 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 82 84 E 3 8 1151 1125 0 White 0
10 AM Wed 85 88 E 4 8 1151 1125 0 White 0
11 AM Wed 88 92 E 5 9 1151 1125 0 White 0
12 Noon Wed 91 96 ENE 5 10 1151 1125 0 White 0
1 PM Wed 93 98 N 4 11 1151 1125 0 White 0
2 PM Wed 94 99 NW 3 11 1151 1125 0 White 0
3 PM Wed 95 98 NW 4 11 1151 1125 0 White 0
4 PM Wed 95 96 NW 5 11 1151 1125 0 White 0
5 PM Wed 94 94 WNW 5 10 1151 1125 0 White 0
6 PM Wed 92 92 NW 4 9 1151 1125 0 White 0
7 PM Wed 90 90 N 3 6 1151 1125 0 White 0
8 PM Wed 87 87 N 2 5 1151 1125 0 White 0
9 PM Wed 85 85 NE 2 5 1151 1125 0 White 0
10 PM Wed 83 83 ESE 2 5 1151 1125 0 White 0
11 PM Wed 81 81 SE 2 5 1151 1125 0 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 80 80 SE 2 5 1151 1125 0 White 0
1 AM Thu 79 79 ESE 2 5 1151 1125 0 White 0
2 AM Thu 78 78 E 2 5 1151 1125 0 White 0
3 AM Thu 76 76 E 2 5 1151 1125 0 White 0
4 AM Thu 75 75 E 2 5 1151 1125 0 White 0
5 AM Thu 74 74 E 2 5 1151 1151 26 White 0
6 AM Thu 75 75 E 2 5 1151 1125 0 White 0
7 AM Thu 76 76 E 3 6 1151 1125 0 White 0
8 AM Thu 79 79 E 4 8 1151 1125 0 White 0
9 AM Thu 82 84 E 5 9 1151 1125 0 White 0
10 AM Thu 86 89 E 6 11 1151 1125 0 White 0
11 AM Thu 89 94 E 8 12 1151 1125 0 White 0
12 Noon Thu 91 97 E 8 13 1151 1125 0 White 0
1 PM Thu 93 98 E 6 13 1151 1125 0 White 0
2 PM Thu 94 98 E 6 13 1151 1125 0 White 0
3 PM Thu 95 98 E 6 13 1151 1125 0 White 0
4 PM Thu 95 96 ENE 6 13 1151 1125 0 White 0
5 PM Thu 94 94 ENE 6 12 1151 1125 0 White 0
6 PM Thu 91 91 ENE 6 11 1151 1125 0 White 0
7 PM Thu 88 88 E 5 9 1151 1125 0 White 0
8 PM Thu 85 85 E 5 8 1151 1125 0 White 0
9 PM Thu 83 83 E 5 9 1151 1125 0 White 0
10 PM Thu 81 81 E 5 10 1151 1125 0 White 0
11 PM Thu 80 80 E 5 11 1151 1125 0 White 0
12 Midnight Fri 79 79 E 5 11 1151 1125 0 White 0
1 AM Fri 79 79 E 6 11 1151 1125 0 White 0
2 AM Fri 78 78 E 6 11 1151 1125 0 White 0
3 AM Fri 76 76 E 6 10 1151 1125 0 White 0
4 AM Fri 75 75 E 5 9 1151 1125 0 White 0
5 AM Fri 74 74 E 5 9 1151 1151 26 White 0
6 AM Fri 75 75 E 5 10 1151 1125 0 White 0
7 AM Fri 76 76 E 6 11 1151 1125 0 White 0
8 AM Fri 79 79 E 8 13 1151 1125 0 White 0
9 AM Fri 82 84 E 9 17 1151 1125 0 White 0
10 AM Fri 86 89 E 11 19 1151 1125 0 White 0
11 AM Fri 89 93 E 12 21 1151 1125 0 White 0
12 Noon Fri 91 96 E 12 21 1151 1125 0 White 0
1 PM Fri 92 97 E 12 21 1151 1125 0 White 0
2 PM Fri 92 96 E 11 20 1151 1125 0 White 0
3 PM Fri 92 94 E 10 19 1151 1125 0 White 0
4 PM Fri 92 93 E 10 17 1151 1125 0 White 0
5 PM Fri 91 91 E 9 16 1151 1125 0 White 0
6 PM Fri 89 89 E 8 14 1151 1125 0 White 0
7 PM Fri 87 87 E 8 13 1151 1125 0 White 0
8 PM Fri 85 85 E 6 12 1151 1125 0 White 0
9 PM Fri 83 83 E 6 11 1151 1125 0 White 0
10 PM Fri 81 81 E 6 11 1151 1125 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com