Detailed Predictions for: Rainbow Valley
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.18816, -112.37519, 1125
LZ Altitude (f): 80
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

16 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 86 86 SSW 2 2 3551 3340 2215 Blue 13
1 AM Thu 85 85 SSW 2 2 3481 3270 2145 Blue 12
2 AM Thu 83 83 SSW 2 2 3342 3131 2006 Blue 10
3 AM Thu 82 82 S 2 2 3272 2999 1874 Blue 9
4 AM Thu 80 80 SSE 2 2 3132 2821 1696 Blue 7
5 AM Thu 79 79 SSE 2 2 3001 2758 1633 Blue 6
6 AM Thu 78 78 SE 2 2 2885 2695 1570 Blue 5
7 AM Thu 78 78 SE 2 3 2885 2695 1570 Blue 5
8 AM Thu 84 85 ESE 2 3 3481 3270 2145 Blue 12
9 AM Thu 90 92 ENE 2 4 5218 3866 2741 Blue 19
10 AM Thu 94 98 ENE 2 5 13516 8410 7285 White 25
11 AM Thu 98 104 ESE 2 6 14740 14740 13615 White 31
12 Noon Thu 100 107 SE 2 9 15344 15344 14219 White 34
1 PM Thu 102 109 W 3 10 15735 15735 14610 White 36
2 PM Thu 104 110 W 5 12 15931 15931 14806 White 37
3 PM Thu 104 108 W 5 13 15540 15540 14415 White 35
4 PM Thu 104 106 W 5 12 15147 15147 14022 White 33
5 PM Thu 104 105 W 5 12 14944 14944 13819 White 32
6 PM Thu 102 102 W 3 8 14334 14334 13209 White 29
7 PM Thu 99 99 W 2 3 13722 9118 7993 White 26
8 PM Thu 96 96 W 2 4 9265 6478 5353 Blue 23
9 PM Thu 93 93 WSW 2 5 6639 4065 2940 Blue 20
10 PM Thu 91 91 SW 2 4 4275 3689 2564 Blue 18
11 PM Thu 89 89 SSW 4 5 3874 3549 2424 Blue 16
12 Midnight Fri 87 87 SSW 4 6 3621 3409 2284 Blue 14
1 AM Fri 86 86 SW 3 6 3551 3340 2215 Blue 13
2 AM Fri 85 85 WSW 4 9 3481 3270 2145 Blue 12
3 AM Fri 84 84 SW 3 9 3412 3200 2075 Blue 11
4 AM Fri 83 83 SSE 3 8 3342 3131 2006 Blue 10
5 AM Fri 81 81 ESE 2 6 3202 2884 1759 Blue 8
6 AM Fri 81 81 ESE 2 4 3202 2884 1759 Blue 8
7 AM Fri 81 81 ESE 3 4 3202 2884 1759 Blue 8
8 AM Fri 84 84 E 3 4 3412 3200 2075 Blue 11
9 AM Fri 87 89 SE 2 4 3874 3549 2424 Blue 16
10 AM Fri 90 93 NNW 1 4 6639 4065 2940 Blue 20
11 AM Fri 92 96 W 2 5 9265 6478 5353 Blue 23
12 Noon Fri 94 99 W 3 3 13722 9118 7993 White 26
1 PM Fri 96 101 W 4 4 14130 14130 13005 White 28
2 PM Fri 98 103 W 4 4 14538 14538 13413 White 30
3 PM Fri 99 103 W 5 5 14538 14538 13413 White 30
4 PM Fri 100 102 W 5 5 14334 14334 13209 White 29
5 PM Fri 99 99 W 5 5 13722 9118 7993 White 26
6 PM Fri 96 96 W 5 5 9265 6478 5353 Blue 23
7 PM Fri 93 93 WSW 4 4 6639 4065 2940 Blue 20
8 PM Fri 90 90 WSW 4 4 4075 3619 2494 Blue 17
9 PM Fri 89 89 SW 3 3 3874 3549 2424 Blue 16
10 PM Fri 88 88 SW 3 3 3691 3479 2354 Blue 15
11 PM Fri 87 87 SW 3 3 3621 3409 2284 Blue 14
12 Midnight Sat 85 85 SW 3 3 3481 3270 2145 Blue 12
1 AM Sat 84 84 SW 3 3 3412 3200 2075 Blue 11
2 AM Sat 82 82 SW 3 3 3272 2999 1874 Blue 9
3 AM Sat 81 81 SSW 3 3 3202 2884 1759 Blue 8
4 AM Sat 79 79 SSW 2 2 3001 2758 1633 Blue 6
5 AM Sat 79 79 S 2 2 3001 2758 1633 Blue 6
6 AM Sat 79 79 S 2 2 3001 2758 1633 Blue 6
7 AM Sat 80 80 S 2 2 3132 2821 1696 Blue 7
8 AM Sat 82 83 S 3 3 3342 3131 2006 Blue 10
9 AM Sat 85 87 SSW 3 3 3621 3409 2284 Blue 14
10 AM Sat 89 93 SW 3 3 6639 4065 2940 Blue 20
11 AM Sat 92 97 WSW 4 4 9942 7628 6503 Blue 24
12 Noon Sat 95 101 WSW 4 4 14130 14130 13005 White 28
1 PM Sat 97 103 WSW 5 5 14538 14538 13413 White 30
2 PM Sat 98 103 W 5 5 14538 14538 13413 White 30
3 PM Sat 99 103 W 5 5 14538 14538 13413 White 30
4 PM Sat 100 102 W 5 5 14334 14334 13209 White 29
5 PM Sat 99 100 W 5 5 13926 9787 8662 White 27
6 PM Sat 97 97 W 5 5 9942 7628 6503 Blue 24
7 PM Sat 95 95 W 4 4 8549 5086 3961 Blue 22
8 PM Sat 92 92 W 4 4 5218 3866 2741 Blue 19
9 PM Sat 90 90 W 3 3 4075 3619 2494 Blue 17
10 PM Sat 88 88 W 3 3 3691 3479 2354 Blue 15
11 PM Sat 87 87 W 3 3 3621 3409 2284 Blue 14
12 Midnight Sun 86 86 WSW 2 2 3551 3340 2215 Blue 13
1 AM Sun 84 84 SW 2 2 3412 3200 2075 Blue 11
2 AM Sun 83 83 SW 2 2 3342 3131 2006 Blue 10
3 AM Sun 82 82 SW 2 2 3272 2999 1874 Blue 9
4 AM Sun 80 80 SSW 2 2 3132 2821 1696 Blue 7
5 AM Sun 80 80 SSW 2 2 3132 2821 1696 Blue 7
6 AM Sun 80 80 SSW 2 2 3132 2821 1696 Blue 7
7 AM Sun 81 81 SSW 2 2 3202 2884 1759 Blue 8
8 AM Sun 83 84 SSW 2 2 3412 3200 2075 Blue 11
9 AM Sun 86 88 SSW 2 2 3691 3479 2354 Blue 15
10 AM Sun 90 94 SW 3 3 7787 4264 3139 Blue 21
11 AM Sun 93 98 SW 3 3 13516 8410 7285 White 25
12 Noon Sun 96 102 SW 4 4 14334 14334 13209 White 29
1 PM Sun 98 104 SW 6 6 14740 14740 13615 White 31
2 PM Sun 100 106 WSW 8 8 15147 15147 14022 White 33
3 PM Sun 101 105 WSW 9 9 14944 14944 13819 White 32
4 PM Sun 102 104 WSW 9 12 14740 14740 13615 White 31
5 PM Sun 101 102 WSW 9 12 14334 14334 13209 White 29
6 PM Sun 99 99 WSW 8 8 13722 9118 7993 White 26
7 PM Sun 96 96 WSW 6 6 9265 6478 5353 Blue 23
8 PM Sun 93 93 WSW 5 5 6639 4065 2940 Blue 20
9 PM Sun 90 90 WSW 5 5 4075 3619 2494 Blue 17
10 PM Sun 88 88 SW 5 5 3691 3479 2354 Blue 15
11 PM Sun 86 86 SW 5 5 3551 3340 2215 Blue 13
12 Midnight Mon 84 84 SW 5 5 3412 3200 2075 Blue 11
1 AM Mon 83 83 SW 4 4 3342 3131 2006 Blue 10
2 AM Mon 81 81 SW 3 3 3202 2884 1759 Blue 8
3 AM Mon 79 79 SSW 3 3 3001 2758 1633 Blue 6
4 AM Mon 77 77 S 3 3 2822 2632 1507 Blue 4
5 AM Mon 76 76 S 2 2 2759 2467 1342 Blue 3
6 AM Mon 76 76 S 2 2 2759 2467 1342 Blue 3
7 AM Mon 78 78 S 2 2 2885 2695 1570 Blue 5
8 AM Mon 80 81 S 3 3 3202 2884 1759 Blue 8
9 AM Mon 83 85 S 3 3 3481 3270 2145 Blue 12
10 AM Mon 87 91 SSW 4 4 4275 3689 2564 Blue 18
11 AM Mon 91 97 SW 5 5 9942 7628 6503 Blue 24
12 Noon Mon 94 101 SW 8 8 14130 14130 13005 White 28
1 PM Mon 96 103 WSW 9 9 14538 14538 13413 White 30
2 PM Mon 98 104 WSW 10 14 14740 14740 13615 White 31
3 PM Mon 99 103 WSW 11 14 14538 14538 13413 White 30
4 PM Mon 99 101 WSW 11 14 14130 14130 13005 White 28
5 PM Mon 98 99 WSW 10 14 13722 9118 7993 White 26
6 PM Mon 96 96 WSW 9 9 9265 6478 5353 Blue 23
7 PM Mon 92 92 WSW 6 6 5218 3866 2741 Blue 19
8 PM Mon 89 89 WSW 5 5 3874 3549 2424 Blue 16
9 PM Mon 87 87 WSW 5 5 3621 3409 2284 Blue 14
10 PM Mon 85 85 SW 5 5 3481 3270 2145 Blue 12
11 PM Mon 83 83 SW 5 5 3342 3131 2006 Blue 10
12 Midnight Tue 81 81 SW 4 4 3202 2884 1759 Blue 8
1 AM Tue 79 79 SW 4 4 3001 2758 1633 Blue 6
2 AM Tue 77 77 SW 3 3 2822 2632 1507 Blue 4
3 AM Tue 75 75 SSW 3 3 2696 2467 1342 Blue 2
4 AM Tue 74 74 S 3 3 2633 2467 1342 Blue 1
5 AM Tue 73 73 S 2 2 0 2467 1342 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 73 73 SSE 2 2 0 2467 1342 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 75 75 ESE 2 2 2696 2467 1342 Blue 2
8 AM Tue 77 78 E 3 3 2885 2695 1570 Blue 5
9 AM Tue 81 83 E 3 3 3342 3131 2006 Blue 10
10 AM Tue 85 89 E 4 4 3874 3549 2424 Blue 16
11 AM Tue 89 95 E 5 5 8549 5086 3961 Blue 22
12 Noon Tue 92 99 ENE 4 4 13722 9118 7993 White 26
1 PM Tue 94 101 NNW 4 4 14130 14130 13005 White 28
2 PM Tue 96 102 WNW 3 3 14334 14334 13209 White 29
3 PM Tue 97 101 WNW 3 3 14130 14130 13005 White 28
4 PM Tue 98 100 W 4 4 13926 9787 8662 White 27
5 PM Tue 97 98 W 4 4 13516 8410 7285 White 25
6 PM Tue 95 95 W 4 4 8549 5086 3961 Blue 22
7 PM Tue 92 92 W 3 3 5218 3866 2741 Blue 19
8 PM Tue 89 89 W 3 3 3874 3549 2424 Blue 16
9 PM Tue 86 86 W 2 2 3551 3340 2215 Blue 13
10 PM Tue 84 84 W 3 3 3412 3200 2075 Blue 11

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com