Detailed Predictions for: Rainbow Valley
Launch Altitude (f): 1125
LZ Altitude (f): 80
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 42 42 NE 12 0 1125 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 42 42 NE 13 0 1125 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 41 41 E 13 0 1125 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 44 44 E 14 0 1125 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 49 50 E 14 0 1125 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 54 56 E 14 3178 2470 1345 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 58 61 E 14 7215 5267 4142 Blue 6
12 Noon Tue 60 63 E 13 7403 6917 5792 Blue 8
1 PM Tue 61 64 E 12 7446 7172 6047 Blue 9
2 PM Tue 63 66 NE 10 7532 7393 6268 Blue 11
3 PM Tue 63 64 NE 8 7446 7172 6047 Blue 9
4 PM Tue 63 63 NE 7 7403 6917 5792 Blue 8
5 PM Tue 64 64 NE 6 7446 7172 6047 Blue 9
6 PM Tue 59 59 NE 6 6268 3093 1968 Blue 4
7 PM Tue 56 56 NE 6 3178 2470 1345 Blue 1
8 PM Tue 53 53 NE 6 0 1125 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 52 52 E 7 0 1125 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 49 49 E 7 0 1125 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 48 48 E 8 0 1125 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 47 47 E 8 0 1125 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 46 46 E 8 0 1125 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 45 45 E 8 0 1125 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 44 44 E 9 0 1125 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 43 43 E 9 0 1125 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 42 42 E 9 0 1125 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 42 42 E 10 0 1125 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 41 41 E 10 0 1125 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 45 45 E 12 0 1125 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 51 51 E 13 0 1125 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 57 58 E 13 5394 2470 1345 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 61 62 E 13 7359 6127 5002 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 64 66 E 12 7532 7393 6268 Blue 11
1 PM Wed 66 67 NE 12 7644 7437 6312 Blue 12
2 PM Wed 68 69 NE 10 8108 7523 6398 Blue 14
3 PM Wed 68 68 NE 9 7777 7480 6355 Blue 13
4 PM Wed 68 68 NE 8 7777 7480 6355 Blue 13
5 PM Wed 69 69 NE 7 8108 7523 6398 Blue 14
6 PM Wed 64 64 NE 7 7446 7172 6047 Blue 9
7 PM Wed 60 60 NE 7 7005 4260 3135 Blue 5
8 PM Wed 58 58 NE 7 5394 2470 1345 Blue 3
9 PM Wed 56 56 NE 7 3178 2470 1345 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 53 53 NE 7 0 1125 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 52 52 NE 7 0 1125 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 50 50 NE 7 0 1125 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 49 49 NE 7 0 1125 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 48 48 NE 7 0 1125 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 47 47 NE 8 0 1125 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 46 46 E 8 0 1125 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 45 45 E 8 0 1125 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 45 45 E 8 0 1125 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 44 44 E 9 0 1125 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 48 48 E 9 0 1125 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 54 55 E 10 0 1125 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 60 62 E 10 7359 6127 5002 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 65 68 E 10 7777 7480 6355 Blue 13
12 Noon Thu 68 71 E 9 8624 7747 6622 Blue 16
1 PM Thu 70 73 NE 9 8701 8356 7231 Blue 18
2 PM Thu 71 74 NE 8 8739 8614 7489 Blue 19
3 PM Thu 72 73 NE 7 8701 8356 7231 Blue 18
4 PM Thu 72 72 N 6 8663 8030 6905 Blue 17
5 PM Thu 73 73 N 5 8701 8356 7231 Blue 18
6 PM Thu 67 67 N 5 7644 7437 6312 Blue 12
7 PM Thu 63 63 NE 3 7403 6917 5792 Blue 8
8 PM Thu 60 60 NE 3 7005 4260 3135 Blue 5
9 PM Thu 58 58 NE 3 5394 2470 1345 Blue 3
10 PM Thu 55 55 NE 3 0 1125 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 53 53 NE 3 0 1125 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 51 51 NE 3 0 1125 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 50 50 E 5 0 1125 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 49 49 E 5 0 1125 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 48 E 5 0 1125 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 47 47 E 6 0 1125 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 45 45 E 6 0 1125 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 46 46 E 6 0 1125 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 44 44 E 6 0 1125 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 48 48 E 6 0 1125 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 54 54 E 5 0 1125 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 60 61 E 5 7215 5267 4142 Blue 6
11 AM Fri 65 67 E 5 7644 7437 6312 Blue 12
12 Noon Fri 68 71 E 5 8624 7747 6622 Blue 16
1 PM Fri 70 73 NE 5 8701 8356 7231 Blue 18
2 PM Fri 71 73 N 5 8701 8356 7231 Blue 18
3 PM Fri 72 73 N 5 8701 8356 7231 Blue 18
4 PM Fri 72 72 NW 5 8663 8030 6905 Blue 17
5 PM Fri 73 73 NW 5 8701 8356 7231 Blue 18
6 PM Fri 67 67 NW 5 7644 7437 6312 Blue 12
7 PM Fri 64 64 NW 5 7446 7172 6047 Blue 9
8 PM Fri 61 61 NW 5 7215 5267 4142 Blue 6
9 PM Fri 59 59 N 3 6268 3093 1968 Blue 4
10 PM Fri 56 56 N 3 3178 2470 1345 Blue 1
11 PM Fri 55 55 N 3 0 1125 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 53 53 N 3 0 1125 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 52 52 NE 3 0 1125 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 50 50 NE 3 0 1125 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 49 49 E 3 0 1125 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 48 48 E 3 0 1125 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 47 47 E 3 0 1125 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 48 48 E 3 0 1125 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 46 46 E 3 0 1125 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 50 50 E 3 0 1125 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 56 56 E 3 3178 2470 1345 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 62 63 E 3 7403 6917 5792 Blue 8
11 AM Sat 66 68 E 3 7777 7480 6355 Blue 13
12 Noon Sat 69 71 E 3 8624 7747 6622 Blue 16
1 PM Sat 71 73 SE 3 8701 8356 7231 Blue 18
2 PM Sat 73 75 S 3 8778 8653 7528 Blue 20
3 PM Sat 73 74 SW 3 8739 8614 7489 Blue 19
4 PM Sat 73 73 W 3 8701 8356 7231 Blue 18
5 PM Sat 74 74 W 3 8739 8614 7489 Blue 19
6 PM Sat 68 68 W 3 7777 7480 6355 Blue 13
7 PM Sat 64 64 NW 3 7446 7172 6047 Blue 9
8 PM Sat 61 61 N 2 7215 5267 4142 Blue 6
9 PM Sat 59 59 NE 2 6268 3093 1968 Blue 4
10 PM Sat 56 56 E 2 3178 2470 1345 Blue 1
11 PM Sat 54 54 E 2 0 1125 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 52 52 E 2 0 1125 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 51 51 E 2 0 1125 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 50 50 E 3 0 1125 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 49 49 E 3 0 1125 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 48 48 E 5 0 1125 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 46 46 E 5 0 1125 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 47 47 E 5 0 1125 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 45 45 E 6 0 1125 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 49 49 E 6 0 1125 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 55 55 E 6 0 1125 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 61 62 E 6 7359 6127 5002 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 66 67 E 6 7644 7437 6312 Blue 12
12 Noon Sun 69 71 E 6 8624 7747 6622 Blue 16
1 PM Sun 71 73 NE 5 8701 8356 7231 Blue 18
2 PM Sun 72 73 NE 5 8701 8356 7231 Blue 18
3 PM Sun 73 74 NE 5 8739 8614 7489 Blue 19
4 PM Sun 73 73 NE 3 8701 8356 7231 Blue 18
5 PM Sun 74 74 N 3 8739 8614 7489 Blue 19
6 PM Sun 69 69 NE 3 8108 7523 6398 Blue 14
7 PM Sun 65 65 NE 3 7489 7350 6225 Blue 10
8 PM Sun 62 62 NE 3 7359 6127 5002 Blue 7
9 PM Sun 60 60 NE 3 7005 4260 3135 Blue 5
10 PM Sun 58 58 NE 3 5394 2470 1345 Blue 3
11 PM Sun 56 56 NE 3 3178 2470 1345 Blue 1
12 Midnight Mon 54 54 NE 3 0 1125 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 53 53 NE 5 0 1125 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 52 52 NE 5 0 1125 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 51 51 NE 5 0 1125 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 50 50 NE 6 0 1125 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com