Detailed Predictions for: Rainbow Valley
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.18816, -112.37519, 1125
LZ Altitude (f): 80
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Fri 56 56 E 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 55 55 E 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 54 54 E 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 50 50 SSW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 52 52 ENE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 51 51 ENE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 48 48 SSE 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 51 51 NE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 52 52 NE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 51 51 NW 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 55 55 NE 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 59 59 NE 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 60 65 E 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 63 64 SE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 65 67 SW 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 66 69 WNW 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 65 66 NW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 62 62 WNW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 59 59 WNW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 59 59 W 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 59 59 WSW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 58 58 WSW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 58 58 SW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 57 57 SSW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 56 56 S 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 55 55 S 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 54 54 S 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 53 53 SE 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 52 52 SSE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 52 52 SE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 51 51 ESE 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 52 52 ESE 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 52 52 ESE 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 53 54 ESE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 57 60 ESE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 61 65 ESE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 64 69 S 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 67 72 S 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 68 72 SW 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 70 73 W 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 68 69 W 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 66 66 W 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 63 63 W 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 64 64 W 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 63 63 WSW 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 62 62 SW 7 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 61 61 WSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 59 59 WSW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 58 58 W 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 57 57 WSW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 56 56 W 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 54 54 WSW 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 54 54 W 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 53 53 W 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 51 51 WNW 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 52 52 WNW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 52 52 W 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 50 51 W 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 54 57 W 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 57 61 W 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 59 64 WNW 14 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 61 66 W 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 61 65 W 13 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 64 67 NNW 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 62 63 WNW 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 61 61 NW 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 63 63 N 19 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 60 60 WSW 7 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 58 58 SE 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 56 56 N 16 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 56 56 NNE 13 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 54 54 NNE 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com