Detailed Predictions for: Shaw Butte
Launch Altitude (f): 2150
LZ Altitude (f): 1050
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

21 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sat 89 89 SW 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
7 AM Sat 88 88 SW 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
8 AM Sat 89 89 W 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
9 AM Sat 90 91 NW 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
10 AM Sat 90 92 NW 8 1299 2150 0 White 0
11 AM Sat 92 95 W 8 1299 2150 0 White 0
12 Noon Sat 95 100 W 9 1299 2150 0 White 0
1 PM Sat 97 102 W 9 1299 2150 0 White 0
2 PM Sat 99 104 W 10 1299 2150 0 White 0
3 PM Sat 101 105 W 12 1299 2150 0 White 0
4 PM Sat 102 105 W 12 1299 2150 0 White 0
5 PM Sat 102 103 W 12 1299 2150 0 White 0
6 PM Sat 101 101 W 12 1299 2150 0 White 0
7 PM Sat 100 100 W 12 1299 2150 0 White 0
8 PM Sat 98 98 W 10 1299 2150 0 White 0
9 PM Sat 96 96 W 9 1299 2150 0 White 0
10 PM Sat 94 94 W 8 1299 2150 0 White 0
11 PM Sat 94 94 W 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 93 93 W 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
1 AM Sun 91 91 W 5 1299 2150 0 White 0
2 AM Sun 90 90 W 3 1299 2150 0 White 0
3 AM Sun 89 89 W 3 1299 2150 0 White 0
4 AM Sun 88 88 SW 2 1299 2150 0 White 0
5 AM Sun 87 87 S 2 1299 2150 0 White 0
6 AM Sun 87 87 SE 3 1299 2150 0 White 0
7 AM Sun 85 85 SE 3 1299 2150 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 88 89 S 3 1299 2150 0 White 0
9 AM Sun 92 95 S 3 1299 2150 0 White 0
10 AM Sun 95 99 SW 5 1299 2150 0 White 0
11 AM Sun 98 103 SW 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
12 Noon Sun 100 106 W 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
1 PM Sun 102 108 W 8 1299 2150 0 White 0
2 PM Sun 104 109 W 9 1299 2150 0 White 0
3 PM Sun 106 110 W 9 1299 2150 0 White 0
4 PM Sun 107 110 W 10 1299 2150 0 White 0
5 PM Sun 107 108 W 10 1299 2150 0 White 0
6 PM Sun 106 106 W 10 1299 2150 0 White 0
7 PM Sun 105 105 W 10 1299 2150 0 White 0
8 PM Sun 103 103 W 10 1299 2150 0 White 0
9 PM Sun 101 101 W 9 1299 2150 0 White 0
10 PM Sun 99 99 W 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
11 PM Sun 98 98 W 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 96 96 W 5 1299 2150 0 White 0
1 AM Mon 94 94 W 3 1299 2150 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 93 93 W 3 1299 2150 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 91 91 W 2 1299 2150 0 White 0
4 AM Mon 89 89 NW 2 1299 2150 0 White 0
5 AM Mon 88 88 N 2 1299 2150 0 White 0
6 AM Mon 88 88 NE 2 1299 2150 0 White 0
7 AM Mon 89 89 NE 2 1299 2150 0 White 0
8 AM Mon 91 92 E 2 1299 2150 0 White 0
9 AM Mon 94 97 SE 3 1299 2150 0 White 0
10 AM Mon 97 101 S 3 1299 2150 0 White 0
11 AM Mon 101 107 S 3 1299 2150 0 White 0
12 Noon Mon 104 111 SW 5 1299 2150 0 White 0
1 PM Mon 107 114 SW 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
2 PM Mon 109 115 SW 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
3 PM Mon 111 116 SW 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
4 PM Mon 112 115 W 8 1299 2150 0 White 0
5 PM Mon 112 113 W 9 1299 2150 0 White 0
6 PM Mon 111 111 W 9 1299 2150 0 White 0
7 PM Mon 110 110 W 9 1299 2150 0 White 0
8 PM Mon 108 108 W 9 1299 2150 0 White 0
9 PM Mon 106 106 W 9 1299 2150 0 White 0
10 PM Mon 103 103 W 9 1299 2150 0 White 0
11 PM Mon 101 101 W 8 1299 2150 0 White 0
12 Midnight Tue 98 98 SW 8 1299 2150 0 White 0
1 AM Tue 97 97 SW 8 1299 2150 0 White 0
2 AM Tue 96 96 S 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
3 AM Tue 94 94 S 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
4 AM Tue 92 92 SE 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
5 AM Tue 91 91 E 5 1299 2150 0 White 0
6 AM Tue 90 90 E 5 1299 2150 0 White 0
7 AM Tue 91 91 E 5 1299 2150 0 White 0
8 AM Tue 94 95 E 5 1299 2150 0 White 0
9 AM Tue 97 100 E 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
10 AM Tue 100 105 SE 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
11 AM Tue 104 111 SE 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
12 Noon Tue 107 115 SE 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
1 PM Tue 110 118 SE 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
2 PM Tue 112 119 S 8 1441 2150 0 White 0
3 PM Tue 114 119 S 9 1441 2150 0 White 0
4 PM Tue 115 118 SW 9 1299 2150 0 White 0
5 PM Tue 115 117 W 10 1299 2150 0 White 0
6 PM Tue 114 114 W 10 1299 2150 0 White 0
7 PM Tue 113 113 W 10 1299 2150 0 White 0
8 PM Tue 111 111 W 10 1299 2150 0 White 0
9 PM Tue 108 108 W 10 1299 2150 0 White 0
10 PM Tue 106 106 W 10 1299 2150 0 White 0
11 PM Tue 103 103 SW 9 1299 2150 0 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 101 101 SW 9 1299 2150 0 White 0
1 AM Wed 99 99 SW 8 1299 2150 0 White 0
2 AM Wed 97 97 S 8 1299 2150 0 White 0
3 AM Wed 95 95 S 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 94 94 SE 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
5 AM Wed 92 92 E 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 92 92 E 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
7 AM Wed 93 93 E 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
8 AM Wed 94 95 SE 5 1299 2150 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 97 99 SE 5 1299 2150 0 White 0
10 AM Wed 99 102 S 5 1299 2150 0 White 0
11 AM Wed 102 107 S 5 1299 2150 0 White 0
12 Noon Wed 104 109 S 5 1299 2150 0 White 0
1 PM Wed 107 112 S 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
2 PM Wed 109 114 SW 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
3 PM Wed 111 115 SW 8 1299 2150 0 White 0
4 PM Wed 112 114 SW 10 1299 2150 0 White 0
5 PM Wed 112 113 W 12 1299 2150 0 White 0
6 PM Wed 111 111 W 12 1299 2150 0 White 0
7 PM Wed 109 109 W 12 1299 2150 0 White 0
8 PM Wed 107 107 W 12 1299 2150 0 White 0
9 PM Wed 105 105 W 12 1299 2150 0 White 0
10 PM Wed 103 103 SW 10 1299 2150 0 White 0
11 PM Wed 101 101 SW 9 1299 2150 0 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 100 100 SW 9 1299 2150 0 White 0
1 AM Thu 98 98 SW 8 1299 2150 0 White 0
2 AM Thu 96 96 SW 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
3 AM Thu 94 94 S 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
4 AM Thu 92 92 S 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
5 AM Thu 90 90 S 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
6 AM Thu 90 90 SE 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
7 AM Thu 91 91 S 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
8 AM Thu 92 93 S 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
9 AM Thu 94 96 S 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
10 AM Thu 97 100 S 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
11 AM Thu 99 102 SW 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
12 Noon Thu 101 105 SW 8 1299 2150 0 White 0
1 PM Thu 103 107 SW 9 1299 2150 0 White 0
2 PM Thu 105 109 SW 9 1299 2150 0 White 0
3 PM Thu 106 109 SW 10 1299 2150 0 White 0
4 PM Thu 107 109 SW 10 1299 2150 0 White 0
5 PM Thu 107 108 SW 12 1299 2150 0 White 0
6 PM Thu 106 106 W 12 1299 2150 0 White 0
7 PM Thu 105 105 SW 13 1299 2150 0 White 0
8 PM Thu 103 103 SW 13 1299 2150 0 White 0
9 PM Thu 101 101 SW 13 1299 2150 0 White 0
10 PM Thu 99 99 SW 13 1299 2150 0 White 0
11 PM Thu 97 97 SW 13 1299 2150 0 White 0
12 Midnight Fri 95 95 SW 12 1299 2150 0 White 0
1 AM Fri 94 94 SW 12 1299 2150 0 White 0
2 AM Fri 92 92 SW 10 1299 2150 0 White 0
3 AM Fri 91 91 SW 9 1299 2150 0 White 0
4 AM Fri 89 89 SW 8 1299 2150 0 White 0
5 AM Fri 88 88 SW 7 1299 2150 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com