Detailed Predictions for: Shaw Butte
Launch Altitude (f): 2150
LZ Altitude (f): 1050
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

26 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sun 64 64 SE 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 64 65 SE 8 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 67 69 SE 10 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 70 74 S 12 2578 2470 320 Blue 2
10 AM Sun 73 79 S 14 3518 2664 514 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 75 83 S 14 6696 3752 1602 Blue 11
12 Noon Sun 77 86 S 14 8287 6381 4231 Blue 14
1 PM Sun 78 87 S 14 8368 7434 5284 Blue 15
2 PM Sun 79 87 S 14 8368 7434 5284 Blue 15
3 PM Sun 80 86 SW 13 8287 6381 4231 Blue 14
4 PM Sun 81 85 SW 13 8127 4253 2103 Blue 13
5 PM Sun 82 84 SW 13 7551 4003 1853 Blue 12
6 PM Sun 81 81 SW 14 4025 2868 718 Blue 9
7 PM Sun 80 80 SW 14 3772 2708 558 Blue 8
8 PM Sun 78 78 SW 14 2915 2620 470 Blue 6
9 PM Sun 76 76 SW 14 2666 2532 382 Blue 4
10 PM Sun 75 75 SW 14 2622 2489 339 Blue 3
11 PM Sun 73 73 SW 14 2534 2470 320 Blue 1
12 Midnight Mon 72 72 SW 14 2490 2470 320 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 71 71 SW 13 0 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 68 68 SW 12 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 67 67 SW 10 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 65 65 SW 12 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 64 64 SW 13 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 63 63 SW 14 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 61 61 SW 13 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 62 63 SW 10 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 64 66 SW 9 0 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 66 70 SW 9 0 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 68 75 SW 10 2622 2489 339 Blue 3
12 Noon Mon 70 78 SW 12 2915 2620 470 Blue 6
1 PM Mon 72 80 SW 12 3772 2708 558 Blue 8
2 PM Mon 73 81 SW 12 4025 2868 718 Blue 9
3 PM Mon 74 80 SW 10 3772 2708 558 Blue 8
4 PM Mon 75 79 SW 10 3518 2664 514 Blue 7
5 PM Mon 75 77 W 10 2710 2576 426 Blue 5
6 PM Mon 75 75 W 10 2622 2489 339 Blue 3
7 PM Mon 74 74 W 9 2578 2470 320 Blue 2
8 PM Mon 73 73 SW 7 2534 2470 320 Blue 1
9 PM Mon 72 72 SW 6 2490 2470 320 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 70 70 SW 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 69 69 W 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 67 67 W 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 66 66 W 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 64 64 W 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 63 63 W 1 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 61 61 NW 1 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 59 59 NE 1 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 59 59 E 1 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 61 62 E 1 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 64 66 SE 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 68 72 S 2 2490 2470 320 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 71 77 S 2 2710 2576 426 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 74 82 SW 3 4276 3500 1350 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 77 86 SW 3 8287 6381 4231 Blue 14
1 PM Tue 79 88 SW 5 8583 8003 5853 Blue 16
2 PM Tue 81 89 SW 5 8876 8268 6118 Blue 17
3 PM Tue 82 88 SW 6 8583 8003 5853 Blue 16
4 PM Tue 83 87 W 6 8368 7434 5284 Blue 15
5 PM Tue 83 85 W 7 8127 4253 2103 Blue 13
6 PM Tue 83 83 W 7 6696 3752 1602 Blue 11
7 PM Tue 82 82 W 7 4276 3500 1350 Blue 10
8 PM Tue 80 80 W 7 3772 2708 558 Blue 8
9 PM Tue 78 78 W 7 2915 2620 470 Blue 6
10 PM Tue 76 76 W 6 2666 2532 382 Blue 4
11 PM Tue 75 75 W 6 2622 2489 339 Blue 3
12 Midnight Wed 73 73 W 6 2534 2470 320 Blue 1
1 AM Wed 72 72 W 5 2490 2470 320 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 70 70 W 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 69 69 W 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 67 67 W 1 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 65 65 W 1 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 64 64 W 1 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 66 67 W 1 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 69 71 W 1 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 73 77 SW 2 2710 2576 426 Blue 5
10 AM Wed 76 82 SW 3 4276 3500 1350 Blue 10
11 AM Wed 80 88 SW 5 8583 8003 5853 Blue 16
12 Noon Wed 83 92 SW 6 9652 8805 6655 Blue 20
1 PM Wed 86 95 SW 6 12462 9605 7455 Blue 23
2 PM Wed 88 95 SW 6 12462 9605 7455 Blue 23
3 PM Wed 89 95 SW 7 12462 9605 7455 Blue 23
4 PM Wed 90 94 SW 7 12103 9309 7159 Blue 22
5 PM Wed 90 92 W 7 9652 8805 6655 Blue 20
6 PM Wed 89 89 W 7 8876 8268 6118 Blue 17
7 PM Wed 88 88 W 7 8583 8003 5853 Blue 16
8 PM Wed 86 86 W 7 8287 6381 4231 Blue 14
9 PM Wed 84 84 W 7 7551 4003 1853 Blue 12
10 PM Wed 82 82 W 7 4276 3500 1350 Blue 10
11 PM Wed 79 79 W 6 3518 2664 514 Blue 7
12 Midnight Thu 77 77 W 6 2710 2576 426 Blue 5
1 AM Thu 75 75 SW 5 2622 2489 339 Blue 3
2 AM Thu 73 73 SW 5 2534 2470 320 Blue 1
3 AM Thu 72 72 S 3 2490 2470 320 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 70 70 S 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 68 68 S 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 68 68 SE 1 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 70 71 S 1 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 73 75 S 1 2622 2489 339 Blue 3
9 AM Thu 77 81 S 1 4025 2868 718 Blue 9
10 AM Thu 81 87 S 2 8368 7434 5284 Blue 15
11 AM Thu 84 92 S 2 9652 8805 6655 Blue 20
12 Noon Thu 87 96 S 3 12817 9774 7624 Blue 24
1 PM Thu 89 98 S 3 13854 12330 10180 Blue 26
2 PM Thu 91 99 SW 5 15162 12681 10531 Blue 27
3 PM Thu 92 98 SW 5 13854 12330 10180 Blue 26
4 PM Thu 93 97 SW 6 13166 11973 9823 Blue 25
5 PM Thu 93 95 SW 6 12462 9605 7455 Blue 23
6 PM Thu 92 92 W 6 9652 8805 6655 Blue 20
7 PM Thu 91 91 W 6 9408 8513 6363 Blue 19
8 PM Thu 88 88 W 6 8583 8003 5853 Blue 16
9 PM Thu 86 86 W 6 8287 6381 4231 Blue 14
10 PM Thu 84 84 W 6 7551 4003 1853 Blue 12
11 PM Thu 81 81 W 6 4025 2868 718 Blue 9
12 Midnight Fri 79 79 W 5 3518 2664 514 Blue 7
1 AM Fri 77 77 W 5 2710 2576 426 Blue 5
2 AM Fri 76 76 SW 3 2666 2532 382 Blue 4
3 AM Fri 74 74 SW 3 2578 2470 320 Blue 2
4 AM Fri 72 72 S 2 2490 2470 320 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 70 70 SE 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 69 69 SE 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 71 72 SE 2 2490 2470 320 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 74 76 SE 2 2666 2532 382 Blue 4
9 AM Fri 78 82 S 2 4276 3500 1350 Blue 10
10 AM Fri 82 88 S 3 8583 8003 5853 Blue 16
11 AM Fri 85 93 S 3 9821 9003 6853 Blue 21
12 Noon Fri 88 97 SW 5 13166 11973 9823 Blue 25
1 PM Fri 90 99 SW 5 15162 12681 10531 Blue 27
2 PM Fri 92 100 SW 6 15713 13028 10878 Blue 28
3 PM Fri 93 99 SW 6 15162 12681 10531 Blue 27
4 PM Fri 94 98 SW 7 13854 12330 10180 Blue 26
5 PM Fri 95 97 SW 7 13166 11973 9823 Blue 25
6 PM Fri 94 94 SW 7 12103 9309 7159 Blue 22
7 PM Fri 92 92 SW 8 9652 8805 6655 Blue 20
8 PM Fri 90 90 SW 8 9046 8349 6199 Blue 18
9 PM Fri 87 87 SW 8 8368 7434 5284 Blue 15
10 PM Fri 85 85 W 8 8127 4253 2103 Blue 13
11 PM Fri 82 82 W 8 4276 3500 1350 Blue 10
12 Midnight Sat 80 80 W 8 3772 2708 558 Blue 8
1 AM Sat 78 78 SW 7 2915 2620 470 Blue 6
2 AM Sat 76 76 SW 6 2666 2532 382 Blue 4
3 AM Sat 74 74 S 5 2578 2470 320 Blue 2
4 AM Sat 72 72 S 3 2490 2470 320 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 70 70 S 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com