Detailed Predictions for: Shaw Butte
Launch Altitude (f): 2150
LZ Altitude (f): 1050
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 48 48 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 47 47 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 49 49 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 49 49 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 52 52 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 57 58 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 61 63 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 64 66 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 66 68 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 67 68 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 68 68 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 67 67 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 67 67 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 63 63 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 61 61 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 60 60 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 57 57 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 57 57 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 55 55 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 55 55 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 55 55 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 54 54 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 54 54 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 54 54 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 53 53 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 52 52 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 51 51 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 51 51 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 55 55 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 58 58 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 60 61 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 63 64 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 65 67 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 65 66 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 66 67 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 66 66 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 65 65 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 63 63 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 60 60 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 57 57 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 55 55 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 53 53 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 52 52 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 51 51 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 50 50 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 49 49 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 49 49 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 49 49 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 48 48 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 46 46 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 45 45 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 46 46 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 50 50 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 55 56 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 60 62 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 64 67 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 66 69 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 67 69 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 68 69 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 68 68 W 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 67 67 W 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 64 64 W 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 61 61 NW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 58 58 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 56 56 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 54 54 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 53 53 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 52 52 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 50 50 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 49 49 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 48 48 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 48 48 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 47 47 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 46 46 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 46 46 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 48 48 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 53 53 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 58 58 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 64 65 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 68 69 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 70 71 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 71 72 NW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 72 72 W 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 71 71 W 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 70 70 W 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 67 67 W 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 64 64 NW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 61 61 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 58 58 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 56 56 NE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 55 55 NE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 54 54 NE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 53 53 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 52 52 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 51 51 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 51 51 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 50 50 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 49 49 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 48 48 SE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 49 49 SE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 53 53 S 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 58 59 SW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 62 64 SW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 65 67 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 66 68 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 67 69 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 67 68 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 67 67 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 66 66 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 63 63 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 59 59 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 56 56 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 53 53 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 51 51 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 50 50 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 48 48 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 47 47 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 45 45 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 44 44 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 43 43 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 42 42 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 41 41 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 41 41 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 42 42 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 46 46 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 51 52 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 55 57 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 58 61 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 61 64 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 62 64 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 63 64 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 63 63 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 62 62 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 60 60 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 57 57 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 54 54 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 52 52 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 50 50 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 49 49 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 47 47 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 46 46 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 45 45 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 44 44 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 44 44 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com