Detailed Predictions for: Shaw Butte
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.5936, -112.086495, 2150
LZ Altitude (f): 1050
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

2 OCT 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 82 82 ESE 3 5 1295 2150 0 White 0
1 AM Sun 80 80 SE 3 5 1295 2150 0 White 0
2 AM Sun 79 79 ESE 3 4 1295 2150 0 White 0
3 AM Sun 78 78 ESE 3 3 1295 2150 0 White 0
4 AM Sun 77 77 E 3 3 1295 2150 0 White 0
5 AM Sun 76 76 E 3 4 1295 2150 0 White 0
6 AM Sun 76 76 E 3 4 1295 2150 0 White 0
7 AM Sun 76 76 E 2 3 1295 2150 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 80 80 ESE 2 4 1295 2150 0 White 0
9 AM Sun 84 86 ESE 2 5 1295 2150 0 White 0
10 AM Sun 86 89 ESE 3 8 1295 2150 0 White 0
11 AM Sun 90 95 SE 3 9 1295 2150 0 White 0
12 Noon Sun 91 96 SE 3 9 1295 2150 0 White 0
1 PM Sun 93 98 SSE 4 10 1295 2150 0 White 0
2 PM Sun 94 99 S 4 10 1295 2150 0 White 0
3 PM Sun 95 98 S 4 10 1295 2150 0 White 0
4 PM Sun 94 95 SSW 4 10 1295 2150 0 White 0
5 PM Sun 93 93 SSW 4 9 1295 2150 0 White 0
6 PM Sun 91 91 SW 3 6 1295 2150 0 White 0
7 PM Sun 89 89 W 3 4 1295 2150 0 White 0
8 PM Sun 87 87 NNW 2 3 1295 2150 0 White 0
9 PM Sun 86 86 NNE 2 3 1295 2150 0 White 0
10 PM Sun 84 84 NE 3 4 1295 2150 0 White 0
11 PM Sun 82 82 ENE 4 5 1295 2150 0 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 82 82 ENE 4 6 1295 2150 0 White 0
1 AM Mon 80 80 NE 3 5 1295 2150 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 79 79 NE 2 5 1295 2150 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 78 78 NE 3 3 1295 2150 0 White 0
4 AM Mon 77 77 ENE 3 4 1295 2150 0 White 0
5 AM Mon 76 76 ENE 3 5 1295 2150 0 White 0
6 AM Mon 76 76 ENE 3 5 1295 2150 0 White 0
7 AM Mon 76 76 ENE 2 5 1295 2150 0 White 0
8 AM Mon 80 80 E 3 6 1295 2150 0 White 0
9 AM Mon 85 87 E 4 10 1295 2150 0 White 0
10 AM Mon 89 92 ESE 5 9 1295 2150 0 White 0
11 AM Mon 91 94 ESE 5 10 1295 2150 0 White 0
12 Noon Mon 93 97 ESE 5 10 1295 2150 0 White 0
1 PM Mon 94 98 SE 4 10 1295 2150 0 White 0
2 PM Mon 95 98 SE 4 9 1295 2150 0 White 0
3 PM Mon 95 97 E 4 10 1295 2150 0 White 0
4 PM Mon 94 95 NNE 5 11 1295 2150 0 White 0
5 PM Mon 93 93 NNW 5 12 1295 2150 0 White 0
6 PM Mon 91 91 N 5 12 1295 2150 0 White 0
7 PM Mon 88 88 NNE 5 12 1295 2150 0 White 0
8 PM Mon 85 85 NE 5 11 1295 2150 0 White 0
9 PM Mon 83 83 NE 5 10 1295 2150 0 White 0
10 PM Mon 82 82 NE 5 8 1295 2150 0 White 0
11 PM Mon 81 81 NE 5 6 1295 2150 0 White 0
12 Midnight Tue 80 80 NE 5 6 1295 2150 0 White 0
1 AM Tue 78 78 NE 4 6 1295 2150 0 White 0
2 AM Tue 77 77 NE 4 6 1295 2150 0 White 0
3 AM Tue 76 76 NE 4 6 1295 2150 0 White 0
4 AM Tue 75 75 NE 4 5 1295 2150 0 White 0
5 AM Tue 75 75 NE 4 5 1295 2150 0 White 0
6 AM Tue 75 75 NE 4 4 1295 2150 0 White 0
7 AM Tue 76 76 ENE 3 4 1295 2150 0 White 0
8 AM Tue 78 78 ENE 3 4 1295 2150 0 White 0
9 AM Tue 81 83 ENE 3 5 1295 2150 0 White 0
10 AM Tue 85 88 E 4 6 1295 2150 0 White 0
11 AM Tue 89 94 ESE 4 8 1295 2150 0 White 0
12 Noon Tue 91 97 SE 4 8 1295 2150 0 White 0
1 PM Tue 93 99 SSW 3 9 1295 2150 0 White 0
2 PM Tue 94 99 SW 3 9 1295 2150 0 White 0
3 PM Tue 95 98 WSW 4 10 1295 2150 0 White 0
4 PM Tue 95 96 W 4 10 1295 2150 0 White 0
5 PM Tue 94 94 W 5 10 1295 2150 0 White 0
6 PM Tue 92 92 W 5 8 1295 2150 0 White 0
7 PM Tue 90 90 WSW 4 5 1295 2150 0 White 0
8 PM Tue 87 87 SW 3 3 1295 2150 0 White 0
9 PM Tue 85 85 SSW 3 3 1295 2150 0 White 0
10 PM Tue 84 84 SE 3 4 1295 2150 0 White 0
11 PM Tue 82 82 E 3 5 1295 2150 0 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 80 80 E 3 5 1295 2150 0 White 0
1 AM Wed 78 78 E 2 5 1295 2150 0 White 0
2 AM Wed 77 77 E 2 5 1295 2150 0 White 0
3 AM Wed 76 76 E 2 5 1295 2150 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 75 75 ENE 3 4 1295 2150 0 White 0
5 AM Wed 75 75 ENE 3 4 1295 2150 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 75 75 ENE 3 4 1295 2150 0 White 0
7 AM Wed 76 76 E 3 4 1295 2150 0 White 0
8 AM Wed 78 78 E 3 4 1295 2150 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 81 83 E 3 5 1295 2150 0 White 0
10 AM Wed 85 88 ESE 4 8 1295 2150 0 White 0
11 AM Wed 88 93 ESE 4 9 1295 2150 0 White 0
12 Noon Wed 90 95 SSE 4 10 1295 2150 0 White 0
1 PM Wed 92 97 SSW 4 10 1295 2150 0 White 0
2 PM Wed 93 97 WSW 4 10 1295 2150 0 White 0
3 PM Wed 94 97 WSW 4 10 1295 2150 0 White 0
4 PM Wed 94 95 W 5 10 1295 2150 0 White 0
5 PM Wed 93 93 W 5 10 1295 2150 0 White 0
6 PM Wed 91 91 NW 4 9 1295 2150 0 White 0
7 PM Wed 88 88 N 4 6 1295 2150 0 White 0
8 PM Wed 85 85 NNE 3 5 1295 2150 0 White 0
9 PM Wed 83 83 NNE 3 5 1295 2150 0 White 0
10 PM Wed 82 82 NE 3 5 1295 2150 0 White 0
11 PM Wed 81 81 ENE 3 5 1295 2150 0 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 80 80 ENE 3 5 1295 2150 0 White 0
1 AM Thu 78 78 ENE 3 5 1295 2150 0 White 0
2 AM Thu 77 77 ENE 3 5 1295 2150 0 White 0
3 AM Thu 75 75 ENE 3 5 1295 2150 0 White 0
4 AM Thu 74 74 ENE 4 6 1295 2150 0 White 0
5 AM Thu 73 73 ENE 4 6 1295 2150 0 White 0
6 AM Thu 73 73 ENE 4 6 1295 2150 0 White 0
7 AM Thu 75 75 ENE 4 8 1295 2150 0 White 0
8 AM Thu 77 77 ENE 4 8 1295 2150 0 White 0
9 AM Thu 80 82 E 5 9 1295 2150 0 White 0
10 AM Thu 84 87 E 5 10 1295 2150 0 White 0
11 AM Thu 88 93 E 6 11 1295 2150 0 White 0
12 Noon Thu 90 95 E 6 12 1295 2150 0 White 0
1 PM Thu 92 97 ESE 5 12 1295 2150 0 White 0
2 PM Thu 93 97 ESE 5 12 1295 2150 0 White 0
3 PM Thu 93 96 E 5 12 1295 2150 0 White 0
4 PM Thu 93 94 E 5 12 1295 2150 0 White 0
5 PM Thu 92 92 E 5 12 1295 2150 0 White 0
6 PM Thu 90 90 E 5 11 1295 2150 0 White 0
7 PM Thu 88 88 E 5 9 1295 2150 0 White 0
8 PM Thu 85 85 E 5 8 1295 2150 0 White 0
9 PM Thu 83 83 E 5 8 1295 2150 0 White 0
10 PM Thu 81 81 E 5 9 1295 2150 0 White 0
11 PM Thu 80 80 E 5 10 1295 2150 0 White 0
12 Midnight Fri 78 78 E 5 10 1295 2150 0 White 0
1 AM Fri 77 77 ENE 5 10 1295 2150 0 White 0
2 AM Fri 76 76 ENE 5 10 1295 2150 0 White 0
3 AM Fri 75 75 ENE 5 10 1295 2150 0 White 0
4 AM Fri 74 74 ENE 5 9 1295 2150 0 White 0
5 AM Fri 74 74 ENE 5 9 1295 2150 0 White 0
6 AM Fri 75 75 ENE 5 9 1295 2150 0 White 0
7 AM Fri 76 76 ENE 5 10 1295 2150 0 White 0
8 AM Fri 78 78 ENE 6 11 1295 2150 0 White 0
9 AM Fri 81 82 E 8 13 1295 2150 0 White 0
10 AM Fri 85 88 E 9 16 1295 2150 0 White 0
11 AM Fri 88 92 E 10 18 1295 2150 0 White 0
12 Noon Fri 90 95 E 10 19 1295 2150 0 White 0
1 PM Fri 91 95 ESE 9 18 1295 2150 0 White 0
2 PM Fri 92 96 ESE 9 18 1295 2150 0 White 0
3 PM Fri 92 94 ESE 9 18 1295 2150 0 White 0
4 PM Fri 92 93 ESE 9 17 1295 2150 0 White 0
5 PM Fri 91 91 ESE 9 16 1295 2150 0 White 0
6 PM Fri 89 89 ESE 8 13 1295 2150 0 White 0
7 PM Fri 87 87 E 8 12 1295 2150 0 White 0
8 PM Fri 84 84 E 6 10 1295 2150 0 White 0
9 PM Fri 82 82 E 6 9 1295 2150 0 White 0
10 PM Fri 80 80 E 5 8 1295 2150 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com