Detailed Predictions for: Shaw Butte
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.5936, -112.086495, 2150
LZ Altitude (f): 1050
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

16 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 91 91 WNW 6 10 4275 3689 1539 Blue 18
1 AM Thu 90 90 WNW 4 8 4075 3619 1469 Blue 17
2 AM Thu 89 89 WNW 2 5 3874 3549 1399 Blue 16
3 AM Thu 88 88 W 1 2 3691 3479 1329 Blue 15
4 AM Thu 88 88 NNW 0 0 3691 3479 1329 Blue 15
5 AM Thu 87 87 NE 1 2 3621 3409 1259 Blue 14
6 AM Thu 86 86 NE 2 4 3551 3340 1190 Blue 13
7 AM Thu 85 85 ENE 3 5 3481 3270 1120 Blue 12
8 AM Thu 86 87 ENE 3 6 3621 3409 1259 Blue 14
9 AM Thu 88 90 E 4 5 4075 3619 1469 Blue 17
10 AM Thu 91 95 E 4 4 8549 5086 2936 Blue 22
11 AM Thu 98 104 SE 4 4 14740 14740 12590 White 31
12 Noon Thu 100 106 SSE 4 5 15147 15147 12997 White 33
1 PM Thu 101 107 S 4 5 15344 15344 13194 White 34
2 PM Thu 103 108 SSW 5 6 15540 15540 13390 White 35
3 PM Thu 104 108 SW 6 7 15540 15540 13390 White 35
4 PM Thu 104 106 SW 6 7 15147 15147 12997 White 33
5 PM Thu 103 104 WSW 5 6 14740 14740 12590 White 31
6 PM Thu 102 102 W 5 6 14334 14334 12184 White 29
7 PM Thu 100 100 W 5 6 13926 9787 7637 White 27
8 PM Thu 98 98 WNW 4 6 13516 8410 6260 White 25
9 PM Thu 97 97 NW 2 4 9942 7628 5478 Blue 24
10 PM Thu 96 96 N 1 2 9265 6478 4328 Blue 23
11 PM Thu 95 95 WSW 2 3 8549 5086 2936 Blue 22
12 Midnight Fri 93 93 WSW 9 12 6639 4065 1915 Blue 20
1 AM Fri 90 90 WSW 10 15 4075 3619 1469 Blue 17
2 AM Fri 89 89 W 8 12 3874 3549 1399 Blue 16
3 AM Fri 88 88 W 6 9 3691 3479 1329 Blue 15
4 AM Fri 87 87 W 4 6 3621 3409 1259 Blue 14
5 AM Fri 86 86 WSW 2 3 3551 3340 1190 Blue 13
6 AM Fri 86 86 SW 3 5 3551 3340 1190 Blue 13
7 AM Fri 85 85 SW 4 6 3481 3270 1120 Blue 12
8 AM Fri 86 87 WSW 3 5 3621 3409 1259 Blue 14
9 AM Fri 87 89 WSW 2 3 3874 3549 1399 Blue 16
10 AM Fri 89 93 W 4 4 6639 4065 1915 Blue 20
11 AM Fri 96 101 WNW 3 3 14130 14130 11980 White 28
12 Noon Fri 98 104 W 3 4 14740 14740 12590 White 31
1 PM Fri 99 105 WSW 6 6 14944 14944 12794 White 32
2 PM Fri 101 106 SW 7 8 15147 15147 12997 White 33
3 PM Fri 102 106 SW 7 8 15147 15147 12997 White 33
4 PM Fri 102 104 WSW 7 8 14740 14740 12590 White 31
5 PM Fri 101 102 WSW 6 8 14334 14334 12184 White 29
6 PM Fri 99 99 WSW 5 6 13722 9118 6968 White 26
7 PM Fri 96 96 SSW 9 10 9265 6478 4328 Blue 23
8 PM Fri 86 86 SW 17 21 3551 3340 1190 Blue 13
9 PM Fri 84 84 WSW 11 13 3412 3200 1050 Blue 11
10 PM Fri 83 83 NW 10 11 3342 3131 981 Blue 10
11 PM Fri 83 83 N 8 9 3342 3131 981 Blue 10
12 Midnight Sat 84 84 NE 6 7 3412 3200 1050 Blue 11
1 AM Sat 85 85 E 4 5 3481 3270 1120 Blue 12
2 AM Sat 84 84 ESE 5 6 3412 3200 1050 Blue 11
3 AM Sat 84 84 SE 5 7 3412 3200 1050 Blue 11
4 AM Sat 83 83 SE 4 6 3342 3131 981 Blue 10
5 AM Sat 82 82 SE 4 6 3272 2999 849 Blue 9
6 AM Sat 82 82 SE 4 5 3272 2999 849 Blue 9
7 AM Sat 82 82 ESE 2 4 3272 2999 849 Blue 9
8 AM Sat 83 84 ESE 3 4 3412 3200 1050 Blue 11
9 AM Sat 84 86 ESE 3 4 3551 3340 1190 Blue 13
10 AM Sat 86 90 SE 4 4 4075 3619 1469 Blue 17
11 AM Sat 93 98 SSE 4 5 13516 8410 6260 White 25
12 Noon Sat 95 101 S 6 6 14130 14130 11980 White 28
1 PM Sat 97 103 S 6 7 14538 14538 12388 White 30
2 PM Sat 99 104 SSW 7 8 14740 14740 12590 White 31
3 PM Sat 100 104 SSW 7 8 14740 14740 12590 White 31
4 PM Sat 100 102 SW 8 9 14334 14334 12184 White 29
5 PM Sat 99 100 SW 8 9 13926 9787 7637 White 27
6 PM Sat 98 98 WSW 10 11 13516 8410 6260 White 25
7 PM Sat 96 96 WSW 12 14 9265 6478 4328 Blue 23
8 PM Sat 93 93 WSW 11 13 6639 4065 1915 Blue 20
9 PM Sat 93 93 W 9 11 6639 4065 1915 Blue 20
10 PM Sat 92 92 W 8 10 5218 3866 1716 Blue 19
11 PM Sat 91 91 WNW 5 7 4275 3689 1539 Blue 18

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com