Detailed Predictions for: Shaw Butte
Launch Altitude (f): 2150
LZ Altitude (f): 1050
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 58 58 NE 1 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 56 56 NE 1 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 56 56 NE 1 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 59 59 NE 1 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 63 64 E 1 2975 2470 320 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 68 70 SE 1 4066 3216 1066 Blue 8
11 AM Wed 71 74 SE 2 4270 4112 1962 Blue 12
12 Noon Wed 74 77 S 2 4716 4265 2115 Blue 15
1 PM Wed 76 79 SW 2 5139 4492 2342 Blue 17
2 PM Wed 77 79 SW 2 5139 4492 2342 Blue 17
3 PM Wed 78 79 SW 2 5139 4492 2342 Blue 17
4 PM Wed 78 78 SW 2 4919 4316 2166 Blue 16
5 PM Wed 76 76 W 2 4514 4214 2064 Blue 14
6 PM Wed 73 73 SW 1 4219 4062 1912 Blue 11
7 PM Wed 69 69 SW 1 4015 3134 984 Blue 7
8 PM Wed 68 68 NE 1 3665 3052 902 Blue 6
9 PM Wed 66 66 NE 2 3139 2889 739 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 64 64 NE 2 2975 2470 320 Blue 2
11 PM Wed 63 63 NE 1 2893 2470 320 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 62 62 NE 1 0 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 61 61 NE 1 0 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 60 60 NE 1 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 59 59 NE 1 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 58 NE 1 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 58 58 NE 1 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 57 57 NE 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 56 56 NE 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 60 60 NE 1 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 66 67 E 1 3221 2970 820 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 70 72 E 2 4168 4011 1861 Blue 10
11 AM Thu 74 77 SE 2 4716 4265 2115 Blue 15
12 Noon Thu 77 80 SE 2 5240 4694 2544 Blue 18
1 PM Thu 79 81 S 1 5340 4895 2745 Blue 19
2 PM Thu 80 81 S 1 5340 4895 2745 Blue 19
3 PM Thu 80 81 S 1 5340 4895 2745 Blue 19
4 PM Thu 80 80 SW 1 5240 4694 2544 Blue 18
5 PM Thu 78 78 W 1 4919 4316 2166 Blue 16
6 PM Thu 76 76 W 1 4514 4214 2064 Blue 14
7 PM Thu 73 73 N 1 4219 4062 1912 Blue 11
8 PM Thu 70 70 NE 1 4066 3216 1066 Blue 8
9 PM Thu 68 68 NE 1 3665 3052 902 Blue 6
10 PM Thu 67 67 NE 2 3221 2970 820 Blue 5
11 PM Thu 66 66 NE 2 3139 2889 739 Blue 4
12 Midnight Fri 65 65 NE 2 3057 2470 320 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 63 63 NE 2 2893 2470 320 Blue 1
2 AM Fri 62 62 NE 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 61 61 NE 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 61 61 NE 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 61 61 NE 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 60 60 NE 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 61 61 NE 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 62 62 NE 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 66 66 E 3 3139 2889 739 Blue 4
10 AM Fri 71 71 E 5 4117 3583 1433 Blue 9
11 AM Fri 76 76 E 5 4514 4214 2064 Blue 14
12 Noon Fri 79 79 E 5 5139 4492 2342 Blue 17
1 PM Fri 81 82 E 3 5544 5127 2977 Blue 20
2 PM Fri 82 83 E 2 5794 5227 3077 Blue 21
3 PM Fri 82 82 E 1 5544 5127 2977 Blue 20
4 PM Fri 81 81 SE 1 5340 4895 2745 Blue 19
5 PM Fri 79 79 SE 1 5139 4492 2342 Blue 17
6 PM Fri 77 77 SE 1 4716 4265 2115 Blue 15
7 PM Fri 74 74 E 2 4270 4112 1962 Blue 12
8 PM Fri 71 71 E 2 4117 3583 1433 Blue 9
9 PM Fri 69 69 E 2 4015 3134 984 Blue 7
10 PM Fri 67 67 NE 2 3221 2970 820 Blue 5
11 PM Fri 66 66 NE 2 3139 2889 739 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sat 65 65 NE 2 3057 2470 320 Blue 3
1 AM Sat 64 64 NE 2 2975 2470 320 Blue 2
2 AM Sat 63 63 NE 2 2893 2470 320 Blue 1
3 AM Sat 62 62 NE 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 61 61 NE 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 60 60 NE 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 60 60 NE 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 61 61 NE 1 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 63 63 NE 1 2893 2470 320 Blue 1
9 AM Sat 67 67 NE 1 3221 2970 820 Blue 5
10 AM Sat 72 73 NE 2 4219 4062 1912 Blue 11
11 AM Sat 76 78 NE 2 4919 4316 2166 Blue 16
12 Noon Sat 79 82 E 2 5544 5127 2977 Blue 20
1 PM Sat 80 83 S 2 5794 5227 3077 Blue 21
2 PM Sat 81 83 SW 2 5794 5227 3077 Blue 21
3 PM Sat 82 83 SW 2 5794 5227 3077 Blue 21
4 PM Sat 81 81 SW 2 5340 4895 2745 Blue 19
5 PM Sat 80 80 SW 2 5240 4694 2544 Blue 18
6 PM Sat 77 77 W 2 4716 4265 2115 Blue 15
7 PM Sat 73 73 W 2 4219 4062 1912 Blue 11
8 PM Sat 70 70 NW 2 4066 3216 1066 Blue 8
9 PM Sat 68 68 NW 2 3665 3052 902 Blue 6
10 PM Sat 67 67 N 2 3221 2970 820 Blue 5
11 PM Sat 66 66 N 2 3139 2889 739 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sun 65 65 N 2 3057 2470 320 Blue 3
1 AM Sun 63 63 N 3 2893 2470 320 Blue 1
2 AM Sun 62 62 N 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 61 61 N 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 60 60 NE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 59 59 NE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 59 59 NE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 59 59 NE 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 61 61 NE 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 65 66 NE 3 3139 2889 739 Blue 4
10 AM Sun 70 72 NE 3 4168 4011 1861 Blue 10
11 AM Sun 75 78 NE 5 4919 4316 2166 Blue 16
12 Noon Sun 78 81 NE 5 5340 4895 2745 Blue 19
1 PM Sun 80 83 NE 3 5794 5227 3077 Blue 21
2 PM Sun 81 83 NE 2 5794 5227 3077 Blue 21
3 PM Sun 81 82 N 2 5544 5127 2977 Blue 20
4 PM Sun 81 81 NW 2 5340 4895 2745 Blue 19
5 PM Sun 79 79 W 2 5139 4492 2342 Blue 17
6 PM Sun 76 76 W 2 4514 4214 2064 Blue 14
7 PM Sun 72 72 NW 2 4168 4011 1861 Blue 10
8 PM Sun 69 69 NW 2 4015 3134 984 Blue 7
9 PM Sun 67 67 N 2 3221 2970 820 Blue 5
10 PM Sun 66 66 N 2 3139 2889 739 Blue 4
11 PM Sun 65 65 N 2 3057 2470 320 Blue 3
12 Midnight Mon 64 64 N 2 2975 2470 320 Blue 2
1 AM Mon 62 62 N 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 61 61 N 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 60 60 N 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 59 59 NE 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 58 58 NE 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 58 58 NE 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 58 58 NE 1 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 60 60 E 1 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 64 65 E 1 3057 2470 320 Blue 3
10 AM Mon 69 71 E 2 4117 3583 1433 Blue 9
11 AM Mon 74 77 E 2 4716 4265 2115 Blue 15
12 Noon Mon 77 80 E 2 5240 4694 2544 Blue 18
1 PM Mon 79 82 SE 2 5544 5127 2977 Blue 20
2 PM Mon 80 82 S 2 5544 5127 2977 Blue 20
3 PM Mon 80 81 S 2 5340 4895 2745 Blue 19
4 PM Mon 80 80 SW 2 5240 4694 2544 Blue 18
5 PM Mon 78 78 W 2 4919 4316 2166 Blue 16
6 PM Mon 75 75 W 2 4321 4163 2013 Blue 13
7 PM Mon 72 72 W 1 4168 4011 1861 Blue 10
8 PM Mon 69 69 W 1 4015 3134 984 Blue 7
9 PM Mon 67 67 NW 1 3221 2970 820 Blue 5
10 PM Mon 65 65 N 1 3057 2470 320 Blue 3
11 PM Mon 64 64 N 1 2975 2470 320 Blue 2
12 Midnight Tue 63 63 NE 1 2893 2470 320 Blue 1
1 AM Tue 62 62 NE 1 0 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 61 61 NE 1 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 60 60 NE 1 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 59 59 NE 1 0 2150 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com