Detailed Predictions for: Shaw Butte
Launch Altitude (f): 2150
LZ Altitude (f): 1050
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

26 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 60 60 NE 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 61 61 NE 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 61 61 NE 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 65 66 NE 1 2672 2470 320 Blue 3
10 AM Tue 71 73 E 1 2978 2891 741 Blue 10
11 AM Tue 76 78 E 2 3345 3034 884 Blue 14
12 Noon Tue 80 83 SE 1 4491 3642 1492 Blue 19
1 PM Tue 82 83 SE 1 4491 3642 1492 Blue 19
2 PM Tue 85 86 S 2 5118 4484 2334 Blue 22
3 PM Tue 85 85 SW 2 4769 4056 1906 Blue 21
4 PM Tue 86 87 SW 2 5596 4553 2403 Blue 23
5 PM Tue 87 87 W 2 5596 4553 2403 Blue 23
6 PM Tue 86 86 W 2 5118 4484 2334 Blue 22
7 PM Tue 83 83 W 2 4491 3642 1492 Blue 19
8 PM Tue 81 81 W 2 3807 3335 1185 Blue 17
9 PM Tue 78 78 W 1 3345 3034 884 Blue 14
10 PM Tue 75 75 W 1 3036 2948 798 Blue 12
11 PM Tue 73 73 NW 1 2978 2891 741 Blue 10
12 Midnight Wed 72 72 NE 1 2949 2862 712 Blue 9
1 AM Wed 69 69 N 0 2863 2669 519 Blue 6
2 AM Wed 68 68 NE 1 2804 2603 453 Blue 5
3 AM Wed 67 67 NE 1 2738 2522 372 Blue 4
4 AM Wed 65 65 E 2 2606 2470 320 Blue 2
5 AM Wed 65 65 E 2 2606 2470 320 Blue 2
6 AM Wed 64 64 E 2 2526 2470 320 Blue 1
7 AM Wed 64 64 E 2 2526 2470 320 Blue 1
8 AM Wed 64 64 E 2 2526 2470 320 Blue 1
9 AM Wed 67 69 E 1 2863 2669 519 Blue 6
10 AM Wed 72 74 SE 1 3007 2919 769 Blue 11
11 AM Wed 76 76 SE 2 3064 2977 827 Blue 12
12 Noon Wed 79 79 S 2 3499 3063 913 Blue 15
1 PM Wed 81 81 S 2 3807 3335 1185 Blue 17
2 PM Wed 83 83 SW 2 4491 3642 1492 Blue 19
3 PM Wed 84 84 SW 2 4560 3795 1645 Blue 20
4 PM Wed 84 84 SW 2 4560 3795 1645 Blue 20
5 PM Wed 84 84 SW 2 4560 3795 1645 Blue 20
6 PM Wed 83 83 SW 2 4491 3642 1492 Blue 19
7 PM Wed 81 81 SW 2 3807 3335 1185 Blue 17
8 PM Wed 79 79 SW 2 3499 3063 913 Blue 15
9 PM Wed 77 77 SW 2 3191 3005 855 Blue 13
10 PM Wed 75 75 W 2 3036 2948 798 Blue 12
11 PM Wed 73 73 W 1 2978 2891 741 Blue 10
12 Midnight Thu 71 71 W 1 2921 2801 651 Blue 8
1 AM Thu 69 69 NW 1 2863 2669 519 Blue 6
2 AM Thu 68 68 N 1 2804 2603 453 Blue 5
3 AM Thu 66 66 NE 1 2672 2470 320 Blue 3
4 AM Thu 64 64 NE 1 2526 2470 320 Blue 1
5 AM Thu 63 63 NE 1 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 62 62 NE 1 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 62 62 NE 1 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 63 64 NE 0 2526 2470 320 Blue 1
9 AM Thu 65 67 N 0 2738 2522 372 Blue 4
10 AM Thu 69 73 SW 0 2978 2891 741 Blue 10
11 AM Thu 73 79 SW 1 3499 3063 913 Blue 15
12 Noon Thu 77 83 SW 2 4491 3642 1492 Blue 19
1 PM Thu 79 85 SW 3 4769 4056 1906 Blue 21
2 PM Thu 81 86 SW 5 5118 4484 2334 Blue 22
3 PM Thu 82 86 SW 6 5118 4484 2334 Blue 22
4 PM Thu 83 85 W 7 4769 4056 1906 Blue 21
5 PM Thu 83 83 W 8 4491 3642 1492 Blue 19
6 PM Thu 82 82 W 8 4114 3488 1338 Blue 18
7 PM Thu 80 80 W 8 3653 3181 1031 Blue 16
8 PM Thu 76 76 W 7 3064 2977 827 Blue 12
9 PM Thu 73 73 W 6 2978 2891 741 Blue 10
10 PM Thu 71 71 W 5 2921 2801 651 Blue 8
11 PM Thu 69 69 W 5 2863 2669 519 Blue 6
12 Midnight Fri 67 67 W 3 2738 2522 372 Blue 4
1 AM Fri 65 65 W 3 2606 2470 320 Blue 2
2 AM Fri 63 63 W 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 61 61 W 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 59 59 W 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 58 58 W 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 57 57 W 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 58 58 SW 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 59 60 SE 1 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 62 64 E 1 2526 2470 320 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 66 70 SE 1 2892 2735 585 Blue 7
11 AM Fri 70 76 S 1 3064 2977 827 Blue 12
12 Noon Fri 74 80 SW 2 3653 3181 1031 Blue 16
1 PM Fri 77 83 SW 3 4491 3642 1492 Blue 19
2 PM Fri 79 85 W 3 4769 4056 1906 Blue 21
3 PM Fri 80 84 W 5 4560 3795 1645 Blue 20
4 PM Fri 81 83 W 5 4491 3642 1492 Blue 19
5 PM Fri 82 83 W 6 4491 3642 1492 Blue 19
6 PM Fri 81 81 W 6 3807 3335 1185 Blue 17
7 PM Fri 79 79 W 6 3499 3063 913 Blue 15
8 PM Fri 76 76 W 6 3064 2977 827 Blue 12
9 PM Fri 73 73 W 6 2978 2891 741 Blue 10
10 PM Fri 71 71 W 5 2921 2801 651 Blue 8
11 PM Fri 69 69 NW 5 2863 2669 519 Blue 6
12 Midnight Sat 67 67 NW 3 2738 2522 372 Blue 4
1 AM Sat 65 65 NW 3 2606 2470 320 Blue 2
2 AM Sat 63 63 N 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 61 61 N 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 59 59 N 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 58 58 N 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 58 58 NE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 58 58 NE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 60 61 NE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 62 64 NE 3 2526 2470 320 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 66 70 NE 3 2892 2735 585 Blue 7
11 AM Sat 71 76 NE 3 3064 2977 827 Blue 12
12 Noon Sat 75 81 NE 3 3807 3335 1185 Blue 17
1 PM Sat 78 84 N 3 4560 3795 1645 Blue 20
2 PM Sat 80 85 N 5 4769 4056 1906 Blue 21
3 PM Sat 81 85 N 5 4769 4056 1906 Blue 21
4 PM Sat 82 84 N 6 4560 3795 1645 Blue 20
5 PM Sat 82 83 NW 7 4491 3642 1492 Blue 19
6 PM Sat 81 81 W 7 3807 3335 1185 Blue 17
7 PM Sat 79 79 W 7 3499 3063 913 Blue 15
8 PM Sat 76 76 NW 6 3064 2977 827 Blue 12
9 PM Sat 73 73 NW 6 2978 2891 741 Blue 10
10 PM Sat 71 71 NW 6 2921 2801 651 Blue 8
11 PM Sat 69 69 N 6 2863 2669 519 Blue 6
12 Midnight Sun 67 67 N 6 2738 2522 372 Blue 4
1 AM Sun 65 65 N 6 2606 2470 320 Blue 2
2 AM Sun 64 64 N 6 2526 2470 320 Blue 1
3 AM Sun 62 62 N 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 60 60 N 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 59 59 N 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 58 58 N 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 58 58 NE 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 60 61 NE 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 62 64 NE 6 2526 2470 320 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 66 70 NE 6 2892 2735 585 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 71 77 E 6 3191 3005 855 Blue 13
12 Noon Sun 75 81 E 6 3807 3335 1185 Blue 17
1 PM Sun 78 84 E 6 4560 3795 1645 Blue 20
2 PM Sun 80 85 E 5 4769 4056 1906 Blue 21
3 PM Sun 81 85 E 5 4769 4056 1906 Blue 21
4 PM Sun 82 84 NE 5 4560 3795 1645 Blue 20
5 PM Sun 82 83 NW 3 4491 3642 1492 Blue 19
6 PM Sun 82 82 W 3 4114 3488 1338 Blue 18
7 PM Sun 80 80 W 3 3653 3181 1031 Blue 16
8 PM Sun 76 76 W 2 3064 2977 827 Blue 12
9 PM Sun 73 73 W 2 2978 2891 741 Blue 10
10 PM Sun 71 71 NW 2 2921 2801 651 Blue 8
11 PM Sun 69 69 N 3 2863 2669 519 Blue 6
12 Midnight Mon 67 67 N 3 2738 2522 372 Blue 4
1 AM Mon 65 65 N 3 2606 2470 320 Blue 2
2 AM Mon 63 63 NE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 61 61 NE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 60 60 NE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 59 59 NE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com