Detailed Predictions for: Shaw Butte
Launch Altitude (f): 2150
LZ Altitude (f): 1050
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

16 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 89 89 E 1 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 88 88 NE 1 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 92 94 SE 1 2894 2470 320 Blue 2
9 AM Tue 97 101 SE 2 3493 3102 952 Blue 9
10 AM Tue 100 106 S 2 7227 4958 2808 Blue 14
11 AM Tue 103 111 S 3 10968 8629 6479 Blue 19
12 Noon Tue 105 114 SW 5 14156 10750 8600 White 22
1 PM Tue 107 116 SW 6 14558 14558 12408 White 24
2 PM Tue 109 117 SW 6 14759 14759 12609 White 25
3 PM Tue 110 116 SW 7 14558 14558 12408 White 24
4 PM Tue 111 115 SW 8 14358 11322 9172 White 23
5 PM Tue 111 113 SW 8 13955 10006 7856 White 21
6 PM Tue 111 111 W 9 10968 8629 6479 Blue 19
7 PM Tue 109 109 W 9 9513 7074 4924 Blue 17
8 PM Tue 108 108 SW 8 8799 6202 4052 Blue 16
9 PM Tue 104 104 SW 6 5623 3476 1326 Blue 12
10 PM Tue 101 101 SW 6 3493 3102 952 Blue 9
11 PM Tue 99 99 SW 5 3158 2996 846 Blue 7
12 Midnight Wed 97 97 SW 5 3052 2891 741 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 95 95 W 3 2946 2470 320 Blue 3
2 AM Wed 93 93 W 2 2841 2470 320 Blue 1
3 AM Wed 91 91 W 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 89 89 W 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 88 88 SE 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 87 87 SE 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 87 87 SE 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 89 91 SE 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 93 97 SE 2 3052 2891 741 Blue 5
10 AM Wed 95 101 S 2 3493 3102 952 Blue 9
11 AM Wed 98 106 S 3 7227 4958 2808 Blue 14
12 Noon Wed 100 109 S 3 9513 7074 4924 Blue 17
1 PM Wed 102 111 S 3 10968 8629 6479 Blue 19
2 PM Wed 104 112 SW 5 11487 9336 7186 Blue 20
3 PM Wed 105 111 SW 6 10968 8629 6479 Blue 19
4 PM Wed 106 110 SW 6 10189 7878 5728 Blue 18
5 PM Wed 106 108 W 7 8799 6202 4052 Blue 16
6 PM Wed 106 107 W 7 8041 5547 3397 Blue 15
7 PM Wed 105 105 W 7 6343 3951 1801 Blue 13
8 PM Wed 102 102 W 7 4041 3155 1005 Blue 10
9 PM Wed 100 100 SW 7 3242 3049 899 Blue 8
10 PM Wed 98 98 SW 6 3105 2944 794 Blue 6
11 PM Wed 96 96 SW 6 2999 2838 688 Blue 4
12 Midnight Thu 94 94 SW 5 2894 2470 320 Blue 2
1 AM Thu 93 93 SW 3 2841 2470 320 Blue 1
2 AM Thu 91 91 W 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 90 90 W 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 88 88 W 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 87 87 SW 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 86 86 SW 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 87 87 S 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 89 89 S 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 91 92 SE 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 93 95 S 2 2946 2470 320 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 95 98 S 3 3105 2944 794 Blue 6
12 Noon Thu 97 100 SW 3 3242 3049 899 Blue 8
1 PM Thu 99 102 SW 5 4041 3155 1005 Blue 10
2 PM Thu 101 103 SW 5 5026 3227 1077 Blue 11
3 PM Thu 103 105 SW 6 6343 3951 1801 Blue 13
4 PM Thu 104 105 W 6 6343 3951 1801 Blue 13
5 PM Thu 104 104 W 6 5623 3476 1326 Blue 12
6 PM Thu 104 104 W 6 5623 3476 1326 Blue 12
7 PM Thu 103 103 W 6 5026 3227 1077 Blue 11
8 PM Thu 101 101 W 6 3493 3102 952 Blue 9
9 PM Thu 99 99 W 6 3158 2996 846 Blue 7
10 PM Thu 97 97 W 5 3052 2891 741 Blue 5
11 PM Thu 96 96 W 5 2999 2838 688 Blue 4
12 Midnight Fri 94 94 SW 3 2894 2470 320 Blue 2
1 AM Fri 92 92 SW 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 91 91 SW 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 89 89 SW 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 87 87 SW 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 86 86 SW 1 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 85 85 SW 1 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 86 86 SW 1 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 88 90 SW 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 90 94 S 2 2894 2470 320 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 93 98 SW 2 3105 2944 794 Blue 6
11 AM Fri 95 101 SW 3 3493 3102 952 Blue 9
12 Noon Fri 98 104 SW 3 5623 3476 1326 Blue 12
1 PM Fri 100 106 SW 3 7227 4958 2808 Blue 14
2 PM Fri 103 108 SW 5 8799 6202 4052 Blue 16
3 PM Fri 104 108 SW 5 8799 6202 4052 Blue 16
4 PM Fri 105 107 SW 6 8041 5547 3397 Blue 15
5 PM Fri 105 106 W 7 7227 4958 2808 Blue 14
6 PM Fri 105 105 W 7 6343 3951 1801 Blue 13
7 PM Fri 104 104 W 7 5623 3476 1326 Blue 12
8 PM Fri 102 102 SW 6 4041 3155 1005 Blue 10
9 PM Fri 100 100 SW 5 3242 3049 899 Blue 8
10 PM Fri 98 98 W 5 3105 2944 794 Blue 6
11 PM Fri 97 97 W 3 3052 2891 741 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sat 95 95 W 3 2946 2470 320 Blue 3
1 AM Sat 93 93 W 3 2841 2470 320 Blue 1
2 AM Sat 91 91 SW 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 89 89 SW 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 87 87 SW 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 86 86 S 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 86 86 S 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 87 87 S 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 89 90 S 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 91 94 S 2 2894 2470 320 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 93 98 S 3 3105 2944 794 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 96 102 SW 3 4041 3155 1005 Blue 10
12 Noon Sat 98 105 SW 5 6343 3951 1801 Blue 13
1 PM Sat 100 107 SW 5 8041 5547 3397 Blue 15
2 PM Sat 102 109 SW 6 9513 7074 4924 Blue 17
3 PM Sat 103 108 SW 6 8799 6202 4052 Blue 16
4 PM Sat 104 107 SW 6 8041 5547 3397 Blue 15
5 PM Sat 104 106 SW 6 7227 4958 2808 Blue 14
6 PM Sat 104 104 SW 6 5623 3476 1326 Blue 12
7 PM Sat 103 103 SW 6 5026 3227 1077 Blue 11
8 PM Sat 101 101 SW 6 3493 3102 952 Blue 9
9 PM Sat 99 99 SW 6 3158 2996 846 Blue 7
10 PM Sat 97 97 SW 6 3052 2891 741 Blue 5
11 PM Sat 96 96 W 6 2999 2838 688 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sun 94 94 W 6 2894 2470 320 Blue 2
1 AM Sun 92 92 W 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 90 90 W 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 88 88 W 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 86 86 W 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 85 85 SW 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 85 85 S 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 86 86 S 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 88 89 S 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 90 92 S 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 92 94 S 2 2894 2470 320 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 94 97 SW 3 3052 2891 741 Blue 5
12 Noon Sun 96 100 SW 3 3242 3049 899 Blue 8
1 PM Sun 98 102 SW 5 4041 3155 1005 Blue 10
2 PM Sun 100 104 W 5 5623 3476 1326 Blue 12
3 PM Sun 102 105 W 6 6343 3951 1801 Blue 13
4 PM Sun 103 105 W 6 6343 3951 1801 Blue 13
5 PM Sun 103 104 W 6 5623 3476 1326 Blue 12
6 PM Sun 103 103 W 6 5026 3227 1077 Blue 11
7 PM Sun 102 102 W 6 4041 3155 1005 Blue 10
8 PM Sun 100 100 W 6 3242 3049 899 Blue 8
9 PM Sun 98 98 W 6 3105 2944 794 Blue 6
10 PM Sun 96 96 W 6 2999 2838 688 Blue 4
11 PM Sun 95 95 W 5 2946 2470 320 Blue 3
12 Midnight Mon 93 93 W 5 2841 2470 320 Blue 1
1 AM Mon 92 92 W 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 90 90 W 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 89 89 W 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 88 88 W 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 86 86 W 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com