Detailed Predictions for: Shaw Butte
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.5936, -112.086495, 2150
LZ Altitude (f): 1050
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Fri 62 62 ENE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 60 60 ENE 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 58 58 NE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 59 59 E 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 56 56 NE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 55 55 NE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 53 53 E 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 54 54 NE 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 53 53 NE 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 53 53 NE 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 55 55 ENE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 57 57 E 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 62 67 SSE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 61 62 SSE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 63 65 SSW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 66 69 WSW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 63 64 W 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 61 61 W 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 61 61 W 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 56 56 WSW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 52 52 WSW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 52 52 SW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 54 54 SSW 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 59 59 SSW 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 64 64 SW 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 63 63 SSE 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 62 62 SSE 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 61 61 SE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 60 60 SE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 58 58 ESE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 56 56 E 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 57 57 E 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 57 57 E 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 57 58 E 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 59 62 E 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 62 66 ESE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 63 68 SSE 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 65 70 S 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 67 71 SSW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 66 69 WSW 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 67 68 WSW 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 66 66 WSW 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 59 59 WSW 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 62 62 WSW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 59 59 SW 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 51 51 WSW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 59 59 WSW 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 62 62 WSW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 64 64 W 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 63 63 WNW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 61 61 WNW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 60 60 NNW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 58 58 SW 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 55 55 ESE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 53 53 N 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 53 53 NNE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 54 54 NNE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 51 52 N 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 56 59 E 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 58 62 SSE 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 58 63 N 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 60 65 SW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 59 63 SW 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 61 64 NNE 20 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 57 58 SSE 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 55 55 ESE 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 60 60 N 20 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 50 50 NE 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 46 46 NE 15 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 54 54 NNE 16 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 46 46 NNE 18 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 50 50 NNE 17 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com