Detailed Predictions for: Shaw Butte
Launch Altitude (f): 2150
LZ Altitude (f): 1050
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

17 SEP 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 78 78 E 5 2649 2470 320 Blue 1
7 AM Tue 77 77 E 5 2567 2470 320 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 80 81 E 6 2805 2647 497 Blue 4
9 AM Tue 82 84 SE 6 3553 2802 652 Blue 7
10 AM Tue 86 90 SE 6 4257 3895 1745 Blue 13
11 AM Tue 88 93 SE 5 5159 4246 2096 Blue 16
12 Noon Tue 90 96 S 5 6236 5095 2945 Blue 19
1 PM Tue 92 98 S 5 6859 5873 3723 Blue 21
2 PM Tue 94 99 S 5 9167 6186 4036 Blue 22
3 PM Tue 95 99 SW 5 9167 6186 4036 Blue 22
4 PM Tue 96 98 SW 6 6859 5873 3723 Blue 21
5 PM Tue 97 98 SW 6 6859 5873 3723 Blue 21
6 PM Tue 96 96 SW 5 6236 5095 2945 Blue 19
7 PM Tue 95 95 SW 5 5921 4609 2459 Blue 18
8 PM Tue 92 92 SW 2 4663 4129 1979 Blue 15
9 PM Tue 90 90 SW 2 4257 3895 1745 Blue 13
10 PM Tue 88 88 S 2 4023 3661 1511 Blue 11
11 PM Tue 86 86 SE 2 3788 3427 1277 Blue 9
12 Midnight Wed 85 85 E 3 3670 3068 918 Blue 8
1 AM Wed 84 84 SE 2 3553 2802 652 Blue 7
2 AM Wed 83 83 SE 2 3435 2750 600 Blue 6
3 AM Wed 82 82 SE 2 3093 2699 549 Blue 5
4 AM Wed 81 81 SE 2 2805 2647 497 Blue 4
5 AM Wed 79 79 SE 2 2701 2470 320 Blue 2
6 AM Wed 79 79 SE 2 2701 2470 320 Blue 2
7 AM Wed 79 79 SE 2 2701 2470 320 Blue 2
8 AM Wed 80 81 SE 3 2805 2647 497 Blue 4
9 AM Wed 83 85 SE 3 3670 3068 918 Blue 8
10 AM Wed 88 92 SE 3 4663 4129 1979 Blue 15
11 AM Wed 90 96 SE 5 6236 5095 2945 Blue 19
12 Noon Wed 93 100 S 5 10423 6495 4345 Blue 23
1 PM Wed 96 103 S 6 11407 10121 7971 Blue 26
2 PM Wed 97 103 S 6 11407 10121 7971 Blue 26
3 PM Wed 98 102 SW 7 11173 8552 6402 Blue 25
4 PM Wed 99 101 SW 8 10957 6803 4653 Blue 24
5 PM Wed 99 100 SW 8 10423 6495 4345 Blue 23
6 PM Wed 98 98 SW 8 6859 5873 3723 Blue 21
7 PM Wed 96 96 SW 7 6236 5095 2945 Blue 19
8 PM Wed 94 94 SW 7 5603 4363 2213 Blue 17
9 PM Wed 91 91 SW 6 4375 4012 1862 Blue 14
10 PM Wed 89 89 SW 6 4140 3778 1628 Blue 12
11 PM Wed 87 87 SW 6 3905 3544 1394 Blue 10
12 Midnight Thu 85 85 SW 7 3670 3068 918 Blue 8
1 AM Thu 84 84 SW 6 3553 2802 652 Blue 7
2 AM Thu 83 83 S 5 3435 2750 600 Blue 6
3 AM Thu 82 82 S 3 3093 2699 549 Blue 5
4 AM Thu 80 80 S 3 2753 2552 402 Blue 3
5 AM Thu 79 79 SE 3 2701 2470 320 Blue 2
6 AM Thu 78 78 SE 5 2649 2470 320 Blue 1
7 AM Thu 78 78 SE 5 2649 2470 320 Blue 1
8 AM Thu 80 81 SE 6 2805 2647 497 Blue 4
9 AM Thu 82 84 SE 7 3553 2802 652 Blue 7
10 AM Thu 85 89 SE 8 4140 3778 1628 Blue 12
11 AM Thu 88 93 S 8 5159 4246 2096 Blue 16
12 Noon Thu 91 97 S 9 6549 5558 3408 Blue 20
1 PM Thu 93 99 S 10 9167 6186 4036 Blue 22
2 PM Thu 95 100 S 12 10423 6495 4345 Blue 23
3 PM Thu 96 100 S 13 10423 6495 4345 Blue 23
4 PM Thu 96 98 SW 13 6859 5873 3723 Blue 21
5 PM Thu 96 97 SW 14 6549 5558 3408 Blue 20
6 PM Thu 95 95 SW 13 5921 4609 2459 Blue 18
7 PM Thu 93 93 SW 13 5159 4246 2096 Blue 16
8 PM Thu 90 90 SW 12 4257 3895 1745 Blue 13
9 PM Thu 87 87 SW 9 3905 3544 1394 Blue 10
10 PM Thu 85 85 SW 8 3670 3068 918 Blue 8
11 PM Thu 83 83 SW 7 3435 2750 600 Blue 6
12 Midnight Fri 81 81 SW 6 2805 2647 497 Blue 4
1 AM Fri 80 80 SW 5 2753 2552 402 Blue 3
2 AM Fri 78 78 S 5 2649 2470 320 Blue 1
3 AM Fri 77 77 S 3 2567 2470 320 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 76 76 SE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 74 74 SE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 74 74 SE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 75 75 SE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 76 77 SE 3 2567 2470 320 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 79 81 SE 3 2805 2647 497 Blue 4
10 AM Fri 82 86 SE 3 3788 3427 1277 Blue 9
11 AM Fri 85 91 SE 3 4375 4012 1862 Blue 14
12 Noon Fri 88 95 S 5 5921 4609 2459 Blue 18
1 PM Fri 90 97 S 5 6549 5558 3408 Blue 20
2 PM Fri 92 98 S 5 6859 5873 3723 Blue 21
3 PM Fri 93 97 S 5 6549 5558 3408 Blue 20
4 PM Fri 94 96 SW 5 6236 5095 2945 Blue 19
5 PM Fri 95 96 SW 5 6236 5095 2945 Blue 19
6 PM Fri 94 94 SW 5 5603 4363 2213 Blue 17
7 PM Fri 92 92 W 5 4663 4129 1979 Blue 15
8 PM Fri 88 88 W 3 4023 3661 1511 Blue 11
9 PM Fri 85 85 W 3 3670 3068 918 Blue 8
10 PM Fri 83 83 NW 2 3435 2750 600 Blue 6
11 PM Fri 81 81 NW 2 2805 2647 497 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sat 80 80 NW 2 2753 2552 402 Blue 3
1 AM Sat 79 79 N 2 2701 2470 320 Blue 2
2 AM Sat 77 77 N 2 2567 2470 320 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 76 76 NE 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 75 75 NE 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 73 73 E 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 73 73 E 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 74 74 E 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 75 76 E 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 78 80 SE 3 2753 2552 402 Blue 3
10 AM Sat 82 86 SE 3 3788 3427 1277 Blue 9
11 AM Sat 85 90 SE 3 4257 3895 1745 Blue 13
12 Noon Sat 89 95 SE 3 5921 4609 2459 Blue 18
1 PM Sat 92 98 S 3 6859 5873 3723 Blue 21
2 PM Sat 94 99 S 3 9167 6186 4036 Blue 22
3 PM Sat 95 98 S 3 6859 5873 3723 Blue 21
4 PM Sat 96 98 SW 3 6859 5873 3723 Blue 21
5 PM Sat 96 96 W 3 6236 5095 2945 Blue 19
6 PM Sat 95 95 W 3 5921 4609 2459 Blue 18
7 PM Sat 93 93 W 3 5159 4246 2096 Blue 16
8 PM Sat 89 89 W 3 4140 3778 1628 Blue 12
9 PM Sat 86 86 NW 3 3788 3427 1277 Blue 9
10 PM Sat 83 83 N 2 3435 2750 600 Blue 6
11 PM Sat 82 82 N 2 3093 2699 549 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sun 80 80 N 2 2753 2552 402 Blue 3
1 AM Sun 79 79 N 2 2701 2470 320 Blue 2
2 AM Sun 77 77 NE 2 2567 2470 320 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 76 76 NE 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 75 75 NE 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 74 74 E 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 74 74 E 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 75 75 E 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 77 77 E 2 2567 2470 320 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 80 81 E 3 2805 2647 497 Blue 4
10 AM Sun 83 86 SE 3 3788 3427 1277 Blue 9
11 AM Sun 87 91 SE 3 4375 4012 1862 Blue 14
12 Noon Sun 90 94 SE 3 5603 4363 2213 Blue 17
1 PM Sun 93 97 SE 5 6549 5558 3408 Blue 20
2 PM Sun 95 99 S 5 9167 6186 4036 Blue 22
3 PM Sun 96 99 S 5 9167 6186 4036 Blue 22
4 PM Sun 97 98 S 5 6859 5873 3723 Blue 21
5 PM Sun 97 97 SW 5 6549 5558 3408 Blue 20
6 PM Sun 96 96 SW 5 6236 5095 2945 Blue 19
7 PM Sun 94 94 SW 5 5603 4363 2213 Blue 17
8 PM Sun 91 91 SW 5 4375 4012 1862 Blue 14
9 PM Sun 88 88 SW 5 4023 3661 1511 Blue 11
10 PM Sun 85 85 W 5 3670 3068 918 Blue 8
11 PM Sun 83 83 W 5 3435 2750 600 Blue 6
12 Midnight Mon 81 81 W 5 2805 2647 497 Blue 4
1 AM Mon 80 80 SW 3 2753 2552 402 Blue 3
2 AM Mon 79 79 SW 3 2701 2470 320 Blue 2
3 AM Mon 78 78 S 2 2649 2470 320 Blue 1
4 AM Mon 77 77 S 2 2567 2470 320 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 76 76 SE 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com