Detailed Predictions for: Shaw Butte
Launch Altitude (f): 2150
LZ Altitude (f): 1050
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 83 83 E 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 86 86 SE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 82 83 S 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 86 88 S 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 89 93 S 6 3076 2913 763 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 92 98 S 6 5857 3397 1247 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 94 100 SW 6 6762 5506 3356 Blue 12
1 PM Tue 96 102 SW 7 8107 6120 3970 Blue 14
2 PM Tue 99 104 SW 7 9341 7325 5175 Blue 16
3 PM Tue 100 103 SW 8 8705 6644 4494 Blue 15
4 PM Tue 100 102 W 9 8107 6120 3970 Blue 14
5 PM Tue 101 101 W 10 7451 5814 3664 Blue 13
6 PM Tue 100 100 W 12 6762 5506 3356 Blue 12
7 PM Tue 99 99 W 10 6166 5192 3042 Blue 11
8 PM Tue 96 96 W 9 5233 3073 923 Blue 8
9 PM Tue 95 95 W 8 3417 3020 870 Blue 7
10 PM Tue 91 91 W 8 2969 2470 320 Blue 3
11 PM Tue 90 90 W 9 2916 2470 320 Blue 2
12 Midnight Wed 89 89 W 10 2600 2470 320 Blue 1
1 AM Wed 87 87 W 10 0 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 85 85 SW 10 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 85 85 SW 10 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 85 85 SW 9 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 84 84 SW 9 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 84 84 SW 8 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 82 82 SW 7 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 82 82 SW 7 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 84 84 SW 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 86 87 SW 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 86 87 SW 7 0 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 87 88 S 7 0 2150 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 88 90 S 7 2916 2470 320 Blue 2
2 PM Wed 88 89 S 7 2600 2470 320 Blue 1
3 PM Wed 88 89 S 7 2600 2470 320 Blue 1
4 PM Wed 89 90 S 7 2916 2470 320 Blue 2
5 PM Wed 89 89 SW 7 2600 2470 320 Blue 1
6 PM Wed 88 88 SW 7 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 87 87 SW 7 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 86 86 S 7 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 84 84 S 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 83 83 S 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 82 82 S 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 81 81 S 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 80 80 S 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 79 79 SE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 79 79 SE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 78 78 E 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 78 78 E 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 78 78 NE 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 78 78 E 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 79 79 E 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 80 81 SE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 82 85 S 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 85 89 SW 3 2600 2470 320 Blue 1
12 Noon Thu 87 91 SW 3 2969 2470 320 Blue 3
1 PM Thu 89 93 SW 5 3076 2913 763 Blue 5
2 PM Thu 91 95 SW 5 3417 3020 870 Blue 7
3 PM Thu 92 95 SW 6 3417 3020 870 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 94 95 SW 6 3417 3020 870 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 94 94 SW 6 3130 2967 817 Blue 6
6 PM Thu 94 94 SW 6 3130 2967 817 Blue 6
7 PM Thu 93 93 SW 6 3076 2913 763 Blue 5
8 PM Thu 90 90 SW 6 2916 2470 320 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 88 88 SW 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 86 86 SW 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 85 85 SW 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 84 84 SW 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 83 83 SW 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 82 82 SW 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 81 81 SW 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 81 81 SW 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 80 80 S 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 80 80 S 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 80 80 S 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 81 81 S 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 83 84 SW 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 85 88 SW 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 87 91 SW 3 2969 2470 320 Blue 3
12 Noon Fri 90 94 SW 3 3130 2967 817 Blue 6
1 PM Fri 92 96 SW 3 5233 3073 923 Blue 8
2 PM Fri 94 98 SW 5 5857 3397 1247 Blue 10
3 PM Fri 95 98 SW 5 5857 3397 1247 Blue 10
4 PM Fri 96 97 W 5 5546 3127 977 Blue 9
5 PM Fri 97 97 W 6 5546 3127 977 Blue 9
6 PM Fri 96 96 W 6 5233 3073 923 Blue 8
7 PM Fri 94 94 W 6 3130 2967 817 Blue 6
8 PM Fri 92 92 W 6 3023 2587 437 Blue 4
9 PM Fri 90 90 W 6 2916 2470 320 Blue 2
10 PM Fri 88 88 SW 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 87 87 SW 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 85 85 SW 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 84 84 W 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 83 83 W 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 82 82 W 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 81 81 NW 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 80 80 NW 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 80 80 N 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 80 80 N 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 82 82 NE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 84 85 NE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 87 90 E 3 2916 2470 320 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 90 94 SE 3 3130 2967 817 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 92 96 SE 3 5233 3073 923 Blue 8
1 PM Sat 94 98 S 3 5857 3397 1247 Blue 10
2 PM Sat 96 100 S 5 6762 5506 3356 Blue 12
3 PM Sat 97 100 S 5 6762 5506 3356 Blue 12
4 PM Sat 98 99 SW 6 6166 5192 3042 Blue 11
5 PM Sat 98 98 SW 6 5857 3397 1247 Blue 10
6 PM Sat 98 98 W 6 5857 3397 1247 Blue 10
7 PM Sat 96 96 W 6 5233 3073 923 Blue 8
8 PM Sat 94 94 W 5 3130 2967 817 Blue 6
9 PM Sat 92 92 W 5 3023 2587 437 Blue 4
10 PM Sat 90 90 W 5 2916 2470 320 Blue 2
11 PM Sat 88 88 W 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 86 86 W 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 85 85 W 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 83 83 NW 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 81 81 N 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 80 80 N 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 79 79 NE 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 79 79 NE 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 80 80 NE 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 82 82 E 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 84 86 E 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 88 91 E 3 2969 2470 320 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 92 96 SE 3 5233 3073 923 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 95 100 SE 3 6762 5506 3356 Blue 12
1 PM Sun 97 102 S 3 8107 6120 3970 Blue 14
2 PM Sun 98 102 S 5 8107 6120 3970 Blue 14
3 PM Sun 99 102 S 5 8107 6120 3970 Blue 14
4 PM Sun 99 101 SW 6 7451 5814 3664 Blue 13
5 PM Sun 100 100 SW 6 6762 5506 3356 Blue 12
6 PM Sun 99 99 SW 6 6166 5192 3042 Blue 11
7 PM Sun 97 97 SW 6 5546 3127 977 Blue 9
8 PM Sun 95 95 SW 5 3417 3020 870 Blue 7
9 PM Sun 93 93 W 5 3076 2913 763 Blue 5
10 PM Sun 90 90 W 3 2916 2470 320 Blue 2
11 PM Sun 88 88 W 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 86 86 W 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 85 85 SW 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 84 84 SW 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 82 82 S 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 81 81 S 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 80 80 SE 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com