Detailed Predictions for: Shaw Butte
Launch Altitude (f): 2150
LZ Altitude (f): 1050
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 45 45 NE 8 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 45 45 NE 8 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 44 44 NE 8 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 47 47 NE 8 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 52 53 E 8 0 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 56 58 E 8 6124 2904 754 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 59 62 E 8 7396 6793 4643 Blue 8
12 Noon Tue 62 65 E 8 7525 7387 5237 Blue 11
1 PM Tue 63 66 SE 7 7623 7430 5280 Blue 12
2 PM Tue 65 67 S 6 7757 7473 5323 Blue 13
3 PM Tue 66 67 S 6 7757 7473 5323 Blue 13
4 PM Tue 65 65 SW 5 7525 7387 5237 Blue 11
5 PM Tue 64 64 SW 5 7482 7344 5194 Blue 10
6 PM Tue 61 61 SW 5 7352 5990 3840 Blue 7
7 PM Tue 59 59 S 5 6939 4071 1921 Blue 5
8 PM Tue 57 57 SE 6 5232 2470 320 Blue 3
9 PM Tue 55 55 E 6 2936 2470 320 Blue 1
10 PM Tue 53 53 E 7 0 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 52 52 NE 7 0 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 51 51 NE 7 0 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 50 50 NE 7 0 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 49 49 NE 7 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 48 48 NE 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 47 47 NE 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 45 45 NE 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 45 45 NE 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 45 45 NE 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 47 47 E 7 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 53 53 E 7 0 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 59 60 E 7 7181 5108 2958 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 62 63 E 7 7439 7139 4989 Blue 9
12 Noon Wed 65 67 E 7 7757 7473 5323 Blue 13
1 PM Wed 67 68 E 6 8058 7516 5366 Blue 14
2 PM Wed 68 69 NE 5 8388 7594 5444 Blue 15
3 PM Wed 70 70 NE 5 8619 7728 5578 Blue 16
4 PM Wed 69 69 NE 3 8388 7594 5444 Blue 15
5 PM Wed 68 68 NE 3 8058 7516 5366 Blue 14
6 PM Wed 65 65 NE 3 7525 7387 5237 Blue 11
7 PM Wed 63 63 NE 5 7439 7139 4989 Blue 9
8 PM Wed 61 61 NE 5 7352 5990 3840 Blue 7
9 PM Wed 59 59 NE 6 6939 4071 1921 Blue 5
10 PM Wed 57 57 NE 7 5232 2470 320 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 56 56 NE 7 4176 2470 320 Blue 2
12 Midnight Thu 55 55 NE 7 2936 2470 320 Blue 1
1 AM Thu 54 54 NE 7 0 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 53 53 NE 7 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 52 52 NE 7 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 51 51 NE 7 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 49 49 NE 7 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 49 49 NE 7 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 49 49 NE 7 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 51 51 E 7 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 57 58 E 7 6124 2904 754 Blue 4
10 AM Thu 63 65 E 7 7525 7387 5237 Blue 11
11 AM Thu 66 69 E 7 8388 7594 5444 Blue 15
12 Noon Thu 69 72 E 7 8696 8309 6159 Blue 18
1 PM Thu 71 74 SE 6 8773 8647 6497 Blue 20
2 PM Thu 72 74 S 5 8773 8647 6497 Blue 20
3 PM Thu 74 75 SW 5 8811 8686 6536 Blue 20
4 PM Thu 73 73 SW 3 8734 8609 6459 Blue 19
5 PM Thu 72 72 W 3 8696 8309 6159 Blue 18
6 PM Thu 68 68 W 3 8058 7516 5366 Blue 14
7 PM Thu 65 65 NW 3 7525 7387 5237 Blue 11
8 PM Thu 63 63 NW 5 7439 7139 4989 Blue 9
9 PM Thu 61 61 N 5 7352 5990 3840 Blue 7
10 PM Thu 59 59 NE 6 6939 4071 1921 Blue 5
11 PM Thu 58 58 NE 6 6124 2904 754 Blue 4
12 Midnight Fri 56 56 NE 6 4176 2470 320 Blue 2
1 AM Fri 55 55 NE 6 2936 2470 320 Blue 1
2 AM Fri 54 54 NE 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 52 52 NE 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 51 51 NE 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 50 50 NE 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 49 49 NE 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 49 49 NE 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 51 51 E 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 57 58 E 5 6124 2904 754 Blue 4
10 AM Fri 63 65 E 5 7525 7387 5237 Blue 11
11 AM Fri 66 68 E 5 8058 7516 5366 Blue 14
12 Noon Fri 69 72 E 5 8696 8309 6159 Blue 18
1 PM Fri 71 74 SE 5 8773 8647 6497 Blue 20
2 PM Fri 72 74 S 5 8773 8647 6497 Blue 20
3 PM Fri 74 75 SW 3 8811 8686 6536 Blue 20
4 PM Fri 73 73 SW 3 8734 8609 6459 Blue 19
5 PM Fri 72 72 W 3 8696 8309 6159 Blue 18
6 PM Fri 68 68 W 3 8058 7516 5366 Blue 14
7 PM Fri 66 66 W 3 7623 7430 5280 Blue 12
8 PM Fri 64 64 NW 2 7482 7344 5194 Blue 10
9 PM Fri 62 62 N 2 7396 6793 4643 Blue 8
10 PM Fri 60 60 N 2 7181 5108 2958 Blue 6
11 PM Fri 59 59 N 2 6939 4071 1921 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sat 58 58 N 2 6124 2904 754 Blue 4
1 AM Sat 57 57 NE 3 5232 2470 320 Blue 3
2 AM Sat 55 55 NE 3 2936 2470 320 Blue 1
3 AM Sat 54 54 NE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 53 53 E 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 52 52 E 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 51 51 E 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 50 50 E 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 53 53 E 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 58 58 E 5 6124 2904 754 Blue 4
10 AM Sat 63 64 E 5 7482 7344 5194 Blue 10
11 AM Sat 66 68 E 5 8058 7516 5366 Blue 14
12 Noon Sat 68 70 E 5 8619 7728 5578 Blue 16
1 PM Sat 70 72 SE 3 8696 8309 6159 Blue 18
2 PM Sat 72 73 S 3 8734 8609 6459 Blue 19
3 PM Sat 73 74 S 2 8773 8647 6497 Blue 20
4 PM Sat 72 72 SW 2 8696 8309 6159 Blue 18
5 PM Sat 71 71 SW 2 8657 7982 5832 Blue 17
6 PM Sat 68 68 W 2 8058 7516 5366 Blue 14
7 PM Sat 65 65 W 2 7525 7387 5237 Blue 11
8 PM Sat 64 64 NW 3 7482 7344 5194 Blue 10
9 PM Sat 61 61 N 3 7352 5990 3840 Blue 7
10 PM Sat 60 60 NE 5 7181 5108 2958 Blue 6
11 PM Sat 59 59 NE 5 6939 4071 1921 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sun 57 57 NE 5 5232 2470 320 Blue 3
1 AM Sun 57 57 NE 5 5232 2470 320 Blue 3
2 AM Sun 55 55 NE 5 2936 2470 320 Blue 1
3 AM Sun 54 54 E 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 53 53 E 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 52 52 E 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 51 51 E 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 50 50 E 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 53 53 E 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 59 59 E 5 6939 4071 1921 Blue 5
10 AM Sun 64 65 E 5 7525 7387 5237 Blue 11
11 AM Sun 67 69 E 5 8388 7594 5444 Blue 15
12 Noon Sun 69 71 E 5 8657 7982 5832 Blue 17
1 PM Sun 71 73 SE 5 8734 8609 6459 Blue 19
2 PM Sun 72 73 SE 3 8734 8609 6459 Blue 19
3 PM Sun 74 75 S 3 8811 8686 6536 Blue 20
4 PM Sun 73 73 S 3 8734 8609 6459 Blue 19
5 PM Sun 72 72 S 3 8696 8309 6159 Blue 18
6 PM Sun 69 69 S 3 8388 7594 5444 Blue 15
7 PM Sun 67 67 SE 3 7757 7473 5323 Blue 13
8 PM Sun 65 65 E 3 7525 7387 5237 Blue 11
9 PM Sun 63 63 E 5 7439 7139 4989 Blue 9
10 PM Sun 61 61 NE 5 7352 5990 3840 Blue 7
11 PM Sun 60 60 NE 5 7181 5108 2958 Blue 6
12 Midnight Mon 59 59 NE 5 6939 4071 1921 Blue 5
1 AM Mon 58 58 NE 5 6124 2904 754 Blue 4
2 AM Mon 57 57 NE 6 5232 2470 320 Blue 3
3 AM Mon 56 56 NE 6 4176 2470 320 Blue 2
4 AM Mon 55 55 NE 6 2936 2470 320 Blue 1

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com