Detailed Predictions for: Shaw Butte
Launch Altitude (f): 2150
LZ Altitude (f): 1050
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

27 MAY 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sun 66 66 E 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 66 67 E 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 69 71 SE 3 2628 2470 320 Blue 1
9 AM Sun 74 78 SE 3 3458 3126 976 Blue 8
10 AM Sun 77 83 S 5 5160 4020 1870 Blue 13
11 AM Sun 80 88 S 5 6972 5903 3753 Blue 18
12 Noon Sun 83 92 S 6 8227 7171 5021 Blue 22
1 PM Sun 85 93 S 6 8529 7502 5352 Blue 23
2 PM Sun 86 93 SW 7 8529 7502 5352 Blue 23
3 PM Sun 89 95 SW 7 9120 8154 6004 Blue 25
4 PM Sun 89 93 SW 8 8529 7502 5352 Blue 23
5 PM Sun 89 91 SW 8 7899 6928 4778 Blue 21
6 PM Sun 90 90 W 8 7569 6686 4536 Blue 20
7 PM Sun 89 89 W 8 7235 6419 4269 Blue 19
8 PM Sun 87 87 W 7 6729 5373 3223 Blue 17
9 PM Sun 85 85 W 7 5982 4962 2812 Blue 15
10 PM Sun 82 82 W 6 4983 3558 1408 Blue 12
11 PM Sun 80 80 W 5 4091 3342 1192 Blue 10
12 Midnight Mon 79 79 W 3 3566 3234 1084 Blue 9
1 AM Mon 78 78 W 3 3458 3126 976 Blue 8
2 AM Mon 76 76 NW 2 3241 2910 760 Blue 6
3 AM Mon 74 74 NW 1 3024 2620 470 Blue 4
4 AM Mon 73 73 N 1 2915 2470 320 Blue 3
5 AM Mon 71 71 NE 1 2628 2470 320 Blue 1
6 AM Mon 70 70 E 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 70 71 E 3 2628 2470 320 Blue 1
8 AM Mon 75 77 E 5 3349 3018 868 Blue 7
9 AM Mon 80 84 SE 5 5444 4642 2492 Blue 14
10 AM Mon 83 89 SE 5 7235 6419 4269 Blue 19
11 AM Mon 87 95 S 5 9120 8154 6004 Blue 25
12 Noon Mon 89 98 S 5 9845 9045 6895 Blue 28
1 PM Mon 90 99 SW 6 10040 9335 7185 Blue 29
2 PM Mon 92 99 SW 7 10040 9335 7185 Blue 29
3 PM Mon 94 100 W 8 10241 9595 7445 Blue 30
4 PM Mon 96 100 W 8 10241 9595 7445 Blue 30
5 PM Mon 96 98 W 9 9845 9045 6895 Blue 28
6 PM Mon 96 96 W 9 9412 8459 6309 Blue 26
7 PM Mon 94 94 W 8 8826 7829 5679 Blue 24
8 PM Mon 92 92 W 8 8227 7171 5021 Blue 22
9 PM Mon 89 89 SW 7 7235 6419 4269 Blue 19
10 PM Mon 86 86 W 6 6484 5138 2988 Blue 16
11 PM Mon 84 84 W 6 5444 4642 2492 Blue 14
12 Midnight Tue 82 82 W 5 4983 3558 1408 Blue 12
1 AM Tue 80 80 W 3 4091 3342 1192 Blue 10
2 AM Tue 79 79 NW 3 3566 3234 1084 Blue 9
3 AM Tue 77 77 NW 2 3349 3018 868 Blue 7
4 AM Tue 74 74 N 3 3024 2620 470 Blue 4
5 AM Tue 72 72 N 3 2807 2470 320 Blue 2
6 AM Tue 72 72 NE 3 2807 2470 320 Blue 2
7 AM Tue 75 75 NE 3 3132 2800 650 Blue 5
8 AM Tue 79 81 E 3 4676 3450 1300 Blue 11
9 AM Tue 83 87 E 3 6729 5373 3223 Blue 17
10 AM Tue 87 92 SE 3 8227 7171 5021 Blue 22
11 AM Tue 90 96 S 5 9412 8459 6309 Blue 26
12 Noon Tue 93 100 S 5 10241 9595 7445 Blue 30
1 PM Tue 95 102 SW 6 10662 9984 7834 Blue 31
2 PM Tue 97 103 SW 7 10944 10180 8030 Blue 32
3 PM Tue 99 103 SW 7 10944 10180 8030 Blue 32
4 PM Tue 100 103 SW 8 10944 10180 8030 Blue 32
5 PM Tue 100 101 SW 8 10452 9790 7640 Blue 30
6 PM Tue 100 100 W 9 10241 9595 7445 Blue 30
7 PM Tue 99 99 W 8 10040 9335 7185 Blue 29
8 PM Tue 96 96 W 8 9412 8459 6309 Blue 26
9 PM Tue 94 94 W 7 8826 7829 5679 Blue 24
10 PM Tue 91 91 W 7 7899 6928 4778 Blue 21
11 PM Tue 88 88 W 7 6972 5903 3753 Blue 18
12 Midnight Wed 85 85 W 7 5982 4962 2812 Blue 15
1 AM Wed 83 83 SW 7 5160 4020 1870 Blue 13
2 AM Wed 82 82 SW 6 4983 3558 1408 Blue 12
3 AM Wed 79 79 SW 5 3566 3234 1084 Blue 9
4 AM Wed 76 76 SW 5 3241 2910 760 Blue 6
5 AM Wed 74 74 S 5 3024 2620 470 Blue 4
6 AM Wed 73 73 S 5 2915 2470 320 Blue 3
7 AM Wed 75 75 S 5 3132 2800 650 Blue 5
8 AM Wed 79 81 S 6 4676 3450 1300 Blue 11
9 AM Wed 83 87 S 6 6729 5373 3223 Blue 17
10 AM Wed 87 93 S 6 8529 7502 5352 Blue 23
11 AM Wed 90 98 S 6 9845 9045 6895 Blue 28
12 Noon Wed 93 102 S 7 10662 9984 7834 Blue 31
1 PM Wed 95 104 S 8 11528 10389 8239 Blue 33
2 PM Wed 97 104 S 8 11528 10389 8239 Blue 33
3 PM Wed 99 105 S 9 12090 10598 8448 Blue 34
4 PM Wed 100 104 SW 10 11528 10389 8239 Blue 33
5 PM Wed 101 103 SW 10 10944 10180 8030 Blue 32
6 PM Wed 100 100 SW 10 10241 9595 7445 Blue 30
7 PM Wed 98 98 SW 10 9845 9045 6895 Blue 28
8 PM Wed 96 96 SW 9 9412 8459 6309 Blue 26
9 PM Wed 93 93 SW 9 8529 7502 5352 Blue 23
10 PM Wed 89 89 SW 8 7235 6419 4269 Blue 19
11 PM Wed 87 87 SW 7 6729 5373 3223 Blue 17
12 Midnight Thu 84 84 SW 6 5444 4642 2492 Blue 14
1 AM Thu 82 82 SW 6 4983 3558 1408 Blue 12
2 AM Thu 81 81 S 6 4676 3450 1300 Blue 11
3 AM Thu 79 79 S 6 3566 3234 1084 Blue 9
4 AM Thu 76 76 S 6 3241 2910 760 Blue 6
5 AM Thu 74 74 SE 6 3024 2620 470 Blue 4
6 AM Thu 73 73 SE 7 2915 2470 320 Blue 3
7 AM Thu 75 75 SE 7 3132 2800 650 Blue 5
8 AM Thu 78 80 SE 7 4091 3342 1192 Blue 10
9 AM Thu 82 86 SE 8 6484 5138 2988 Blue 16
10 AM Thu 85 91 S 8 7899 6928 4778 Blue 21
11 AM Thu 88 95 S 9 9120 8154 6004 Blue 25
12 Noon Thu 91 99 S 9 10040 9335 7185 Blue 29
1 PM Thu 93 100 S 10 10241 9595 7445 Blue 30
2 PM Thu 95 101 S 12 10452 9790 7640 Blue 30
3 PM Thu 96 100 S 12 10241 9595 7445 Blue 30
4 PM Thu 97 100 S 13 10241 9595 7445 Blue 30
5 PM Thu 98 99 SW 13 10040 9335 7185 Blue 29
6 PM Thu 97 97 SW 13 9648 8753 6603 Blue 27
7 PM Thu 95 95 SW 13 9120 8154 6004 Blue 25
8 PM Thu 92 92 SW 12 8227 7171 5021 Blue 22
9 PM Thu 89 89 SW 10 7235 6419 4269 Blue 19
10 PM Thu 86 86 SW 9 6484 5138 2988 Blue 16
11 PM Thu 83 83 SW 8 5160 4020 1870 Blue 13
12 Midnight Fri 81 81 SW 7 4676 3450 1300 Blue 11
1 AM Fri 79 79 SW 7 3566 3234 1084 Blue 9
2 AM Fri 78 78 S 6 3458 3126 976 Blue 8
3 AM Fri 76 76 S 6 3241 2910 760 Blue 6
4 AM Fri 73 73 S 7 2915 2470 320 Blue 3
5 AM Fri 71 71 SE 7 2628 2470 320 Blue 1
6 AM Fri 71 71 SE 7 2628 2470 320 Blue 1
7 AM Fri 73 73 SE 7 2915 2470 320 Blue 3
8 AM Fri 76 78 SE 7 3458 3126 976 Blue 8
9 AM Fri 80 84 S 6 5444 4642 2492 Blue 14
10 AM Fri 83 89 S 6 7235 6419 4269 Blue 19
11 AM Fri 86 94 S 6 8826 7829 5679 Blue 24
12 Noon Fri 89 98 S 6 9845 9045 6895 Blue 28
1 PM Fri 92 101 S 6 10452 9790 7640 Blue 30
2 PM Fri 94 102 SW 7 10662 9984 7834 Blue 31
3 PM Fri 95 101 SW 7 10452 9790 7640 Blue 30
4 PM Fri 96 100 SW 7 10241 9595 7445 Blue 30
5 PM Fri 97 99 W 8 10040 9335 7185 Blue 29
6 PM Fri 96 96 W 8 9412 8459 6309 Blue 26
7 PM Fri 94 94 W 8 8826 7829 5679 Blue 24
8 PM Fri 92 92 W 7 8227 7171 5021 Blue 22
9 PM Fri 89 89 W 7 7235 6419 4269 Blue 19
10 PM Fri 87 87 NW 6 6729 5373 3223 Blue 17
11 PM Fri 84 84 NW 6 5444 4642 2492 Blue 14
12 Midnight Sat 82 82 NW 5 4983 3558 1408 Blue 12
1 AM Sat 80 80 NW 5 4091 3342 1192 Blue 10
2 AM Sat 78 78 N 5 3458 3126 976 Blue 8
3 AM Sat 76 76 N 5 3241 2910 760 Blue 6
4 AM Sat 74 74 N 5 3024 2620 470 Blue 4
5 AM Sat 72 72 NE 5 2807 2470 320 Blue 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com