Detailed Predictions for: Shaw Butte
Launch Altitude (f): 2150
LZ Altitude (f): 1050
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

12Z 23 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sat 65 65 SE 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 64 64 SE 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 65 66 S 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 69 71 S 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 72 76 S 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 75 80 SW 3 5647 3602 1452 Blue 3
12 Noon Sat 77 83 SW 5 7472 5516 3366 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 80 86 SW 6 9386 7391 5241 Blue 9
2 PM Sat 81 86 SW 7 9386 7391 5241 Blue 9
3 PM Sat 83 87 SW 8 9759 7898 5748 Blue 10
4 PM Sat 84 86 SW 9 9386 7391 5241 Blue 9
5 PM Sat 85 85 W 10 9003 6977 4827 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 85 85 W 10 9003 6977 4827 Blue 8
7 PM Sat 83 83 W 10 7472 5516 3366 Blue 6
8 PM Sat 80 80 W 9 5647 3602 1452 Blue 3
9 PM Sat 78 78 W 8 4192 2612 462 Blue 1
10 PM Sat 75 75 NW 7 0 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 73 73 NW 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 71 71 NW 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 69 69 NW 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 67 67 N 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 68 68 N 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 65 65 N 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 64 64 NE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 64 64 NE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 63 63 N 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 64 65 N 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 68 70 NW 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 72 76 W 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 75 80 W 3 5647 3602 1452 Blue 3
12 Noon Sun 77 83 SW 3 7472 5516 3366 Blue 6
1 PM Sun 81 87 SW 5 9759 7898 5748 Blue 10
2 PM Sun 82 87 SW 6 9759 7898 5748 Blue 10
3 PM Sun 83 87 W 6 9759 7898 5748 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 85 87 W 7 9759 7898 5748 Blue 10
5 PM Sun 86 86 W 8 9386 7391 5241 Blue 9
6 PM Sun 86 86 W 8 9386 7391 5241 Blue 9
7 PM Sun 84 84 W 7 8062 6590 4440 Blue 7
8 PM Sun 81 81 W 7 6659 4144 1994 Blue 4
9 PM Sun 79 79 NW 6 4726 2612 462 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 76 76 NW 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 74 74 NW 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 72 72 NW 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 70 70 NW 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 68 68 N 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 69 69 N 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 65 65 N 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 64 64 NE 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 64 64 NE 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 63 63 NE 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 64 65 NE 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 69 71 E 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 73 77 E 3 3642 2612 462 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 76 81 E 3 6659 4144 1994 Blue 4
12 Noon Mon 79 85 E 3 9003 6977 4827 Blue 8
1 PM Mon 82 88 SE 3 10119 8788 6638 Blue 11
2 PM Mon 84 89 SE 3 10318 9288 7138 Blue 12
3 PM Mon 85 88 S 5 10119 8788 6638 Blue 11
4 PM Mon 87 89 SW 5 10318 9288 7138 Blue 12
5 PM Mon 88 88 SW 5 10119 8788 6638 Blue 11
6 PM Mon 88 88 W 6 10119 8788 6638 Blue 11
7 PM Mon 86 86 W 5 9386 7391 5241 Blue 9
8 PM Mon 83 83 W 5 7472 5516 3366 Blue 6
9 PM Mon 81 81 NW 5 6659 4144 1994 Blue 4
10 PM Mon 78 78 NW 3 4192 2612 462 Blue 1
11 PM Mon 76 76 N 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 74 74 N 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 72 72 N 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 70 70 N 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 71 71 N 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 68 68 NE 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 67 67 NE 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 67 67 NE 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 66 66 NE 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 67 68 N 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 72 74 N 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 76 80 N 6 5647 3602 1452 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 79 84 N 6 8062 6590 4440 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 82 88 NW 6 10119 8788 6638 Blue 11
1 PM Tue 86 92 NW 6 11025 10259 8109 Blue 15
2 PM Tue 87 92 NW 6 11025 10259 8109 Blue 15
3 PM Tue 89 93 W 6 11172 10457 8307 Blue 16
4 PM Tue 91 93 W 6 11172 10457 8307 Blue 16
5 PM Tue 92 92 W 6 11025 10259 8109 Blue 15
6 PM Tue 92 92 W 6 11025 10259 8109 Blue 15
7 PM Tue 90 90 W 6 10532 9658 7508 Blue 13
8 PM Tue 87 87 W 6 9759 7898 5748 Blue 10
9 PM Tue 84 84 W 6 8062 6590 4440 Blue 7
10 PM Tue 81 81 NW 6 6659 4144 1994 Blue 4
11 PM Tue 79 79 NW 6 4726 2612 462 Blue 2
12 Midnight Wed 76 76 N 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 74 74 N 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 72 72 N 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 73 73 NE 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 69 69 NE 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 68 68 NE 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 68 68 NE 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 67 67 NE 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 68 68 NE 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 73 75 NE 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 78 82 N 5 7052 4670 2520 Blue 5
11 AM Wed 81 86 N 3 9386 7391 5241 Blue 9
12 Noon Wed 84 90 N 3 10532 9658 7508 Blue 13
1 PM Wed 88 94 N 3 11362 10830 8680 Blue 17
2 PM Wed 89 94 NW 3 11362 10830 8680 Blue 17
3 PM Wed 91 94 NW 3 11362 10830 8680 Blue 17
4 PM Wed 93 95 NW 2 11731 10977 8827 Blue 18
5 PM Wed 94 94 NW 2 11362 10830 8680 Blue 17
6 PM Wed 94 94 W 2 11362 10830 8680 Blue 17
7 PM Wed 92 92 NW 3 11025 10259 8109 Blue 15
8 PM Wed 89 89 NW 3 10318 9288 7138 Blue 12
9 PM Wed 87 87 NW 5 9759 7898 5748 Blue 10
10 PM Wed 84 84 NW 5 8062 6590 4440 Blue 7
11 PM Wed 82 82 N 6 7052 4670 2520 Blue 5
12 Midnight Thu 80 80 N 6 5647 3602 1452 Blue 3
1 AM Thu 78 78 N 7 4192 2612 462 Blue 1
2 AM Thu 76 76 N 7 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 77 77 N 8 3642 2612 462 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 74 74 NE 8 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 73 73 NE 9 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 73 73 NE 9 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 72 72 NE 9 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 73 73 NE 9 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 77 79 E 8 4726 2612 462 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 81 84 E 8 8062 6590 4440 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 84 89 E 7 10318 9288 7138 Blue 12
12 Noon Thu 86 91 E 7 10876 10062 7912 Blue 14
1 PM Thu 90 95 SE 6 11731 10977 8827 Blue 18
2 PM Thu 91 96 SE 6 12097 11124 8974 Blue 19
3 PM Thu 92 95 SE 5 11731 10977 8827 Blue 18
4 PM Thu 94 96 S 5 12097 11124 8974 Blue 19
5 PM Thu 95 95 S 5 11731 10977 8827 Blue 18
6 PM Thu 95 95 S 5 11731 10977 8827 Blue 18
7 PM Thu 93 93 S 5 11172 10457 8307 Blue 16
8 PM Thu 91 91 S 5 10876 10062 7912 Blue 14
9 PM Thu 88 88 SE 6 10119 8788 6638 Blue 11
10 PM Thu 86 86 SE 6 9386 7391 5241 Blue 9
11 PM Thu 84 84 SE 7 8062 6590 4440 Blue 7
12 Midnight Fri 82 82 SE 7 7052 4670 2520 Blue 5
1 AM Fri 80 80 E 8 5647 3602 1452 Blue 3
2 AM Fri 78 78 E 8 4192 2612 462 Blue 1
3 AM Fri 79 79 E 9 4726 2612 462 Blue 2
4 AM Fri 76 76 E 10 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 75 75 NE 10 0 2150 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com