Detailed Predictions for: Shaw Butte
Launch Altitude (f): 2150
LZ Altitude (f): 1050
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

17 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 49 49 E 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 47 47 E 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 46 46 E 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 47 47 E 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 50 50 E 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 55 56 E 5 2687 2576 426 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 60 62 E 6 3116 2815 665 Blue 12
12 Noon Wed 64 66 E 5 3906 3301 1151 Blue 16
1 PM Wed 67 70 SE 5 4689 4084 1934 Blue 20
2 PM Wed 69 71 SE 5 4884 4279 2129 Blue 21
3 PM Wed 70 71 S 3 4884 4279 2129 Blue 21
4 PM Wed 71 71 SW 2 4884 4279 2129 Blue 21
5 PM Wed 70 70 SW 2 4689 4084 1934 Blue 20
6 PM Wed 67 67 W 2 4103 3498 1348 Blue 17
7 PM Wed 64 64 N 2 3512 2926 776 Blue 14
8 PM Wed 61 61 NE 3 2929 2759 609 Blue 11
9 PM Wed 58 58 NE 3 2762 2649 499 Blue 8
10 PM Wed 57 57 NE 5 2723 2612 462 Blue 7
11 PM Wed 55 55 NE 5 2650 2539 389 Blue 5
12 Midnight Thu 54 54 NE 5 2614 2503 353 Blue 4
1 AM Thu 52 52 NE 5 2541 2470 320 Blue 2
2 AM Thu 51 51 NE 3 2504 2470 320 Blue 1
3 AM Thu 50 50 NE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 50 50 NE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 49 49 NE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 48 48 NE 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 47 47 NE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 48 48 NE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 51 51 E 3 2504 2470 320 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 56 57 E 3 2723 2612 462 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 62 64 E 5 3512 2926 776 Blue 14
12 Noon Thu 66 68 E 5 4298 3694 1544 Blue 18
1 PM Thu 69 71 SE 5 4884 4279 2129 Blue 21
2 PM Thu 71 73 SE 5 5246 4667 2517 Blue 23
3 PM Thu 73 74 SE 3 5416 4861 2711 Blue 24
4 PM Thu 73 73 SE 2 5246 4667 2517 Blue 23
5 PM Thu 72 72 SE 1 5077 4473 2323 Blue 22
6 PM Thu 70 70 SE 1 4689 4084 1934 Blue 20
7 PM Thu 67 67 E 1 4103 3498 1348 Blue 17
8 PM Thu 63 63 NE 2 3314 2870 720 Blue 13
9 PM Thu 60 60 NE 2 2873 2722 572 Blue 10
10 PM Thu 58 58 NE 3 2762 2649 499 Blue 8
11 PM Thu 56 56 NE 3 2687 2576 426 Blue 6
12 Midnight Fri 55 55 NE 3 2650 2539 389 Blue 5
1 AM Fri 54 54 NE 3 2614 2503 353 Blue 4
2 AM Fri 53 53 NE 3 2577 2470 320 Blue 3
3 AM Fri 53 53 NE 5 2577 2470 320 Blue 3
4 AM Fri 52 52 NE 5 2541 2470 320 Blue 2
5 AM Fri 51 51 NE 6 2504 2470 320 Blue 1
6 AM Fri 50 50 NE 7 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 49 49 E 7 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 50 50 E 7 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 54 54 E 8 2614 2503 353 Blue 4
10 AM Fri 60 61 E 8 2929 2759 609 Blue 11
11 AM Fri 65 66 E 8 3906 3301 1151 Blue 16
12 Noon Fri 69 71 SE 7 4884 4279 2129 Blue 21
1 PM Fri 72 74 SE 7 5416 4861 2711 Blue 24
2 PM Fri 74 75 S 7 5585 5054 2904 Blue 25
3 PM Fri 75 76 S 6 5754 5224 3074 Blue 26
4 PM Fri 76 76 SW 6 5754 5224 3074 Blue 26
5 PM Fri 75 75 SW 5 5585 5054 2904 Blue 25
6 PM Fri 72 72 SW 5 5077 4473 2323 Blue 22
7 PM Fri 69 69 SW 5 4494 3889 1739 Blue 19
8 PM Fri 65 65 SW 5 3709 3104 954 Blue 15
9 PM Fri 62 62 S 5 3116 2815 665 Blue 12
10 PM Fri 60 60 S 6 2873 2722 572 Blue 10
11 PM Fri 58 58 S 6 2762 2649 499 Blue 8
12 Midnight Sat 57 57 S 7 2723 2612 462 Blue 7
1 AM Sat 55 55 S 8 2650 2539 389 Blue 5
2 AM Sat 54 54 SW 9 2614 2503 353 Blue 4
3 AM Sat 54 54 SW 10 2614 2503 353 Blue 4
4 AM Sat 53 53 SW 10 2577 2470 320 Blue 3
5 AM Sat 52 52 SW 12 2541 2470 320 Blue 2
6 AM Sat 52 52 SW 12 2541 2470 320 Blue 2
7 AM Sat 51 51 SW 12 2504 2470 320 Blue 1
8 AM Sat 51 51 SW 10 2504 2470 320 Blue 1
9 AM Sat 51 51 SW 10 2504 2470 320 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 52 52 SW 9 2541 2470 320 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 53 54 SW 9 2614 2503 353 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 56 57 SW 10 2723 2612 462 Blue 7
1 PM Sat 58 60 W 10 2873 2722 572 Blue 10
2 PM Sat 59 60 W 12 2873 2722 572 Blue 10
3 PM Sat 59 60 W 13 2873 2722 572 Blue 10
4 PM Sat 57 57 W 13 2723 2612 462 Blue 7
5 PM Sat 56 56 W 13 2687 2576 426 Blue 6
6 PM Sat 55 55 W 13 2650 2539 389 Blue 5
7 PM Sat 54 54 W 12 2614 2503 353 Blue 4
8 PM Sat 53 53 W 10 2577 2470 320 Blue 3
9 PM Sat 51 51 W 9 2504 2470 320 Blue 1
10 PM Sat 49 49 W 8 0 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 47 47 W 7 0 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 46 46 NW 7 0 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 46 46 NW 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 45 45 NW 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 44 44 NW 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 42 42 N 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 40 40 N 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 39 39 N 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 39 39 N 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 41 41 N 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 44 44 N 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 47 48 N 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 51 53 NE 3 2577 2470 320 Blue 3
12 Noon Sun 54 57 N 3 2723 2612 462 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 57 60 N 5 2873 2722 572 Blue 10
2 PM Sun 59 61 NW 5 2929 2759 609 Blue 11
3 PM Sun 60 61 W 5 2929 2759 609 Blue 11
4 PM Sun 59 59 W 5 2818 2685 535 Blue 9
5 PM Sun 58 58 SW 5 2762 2649 499 Blue 8
6 PM Sun 57 57 W 5 2723 2612 462 Blue 7
7 PM Sun 55 55 W 5 2650 2539 389 Blue 5
8 PM Sun 53 53 NW 3 2577 2470 320 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 50 50 N 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 47 47 N 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 45 45 NE 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 44 44 NE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 44 44 NE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 44 44 NE 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 43 43 NE 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 42 42 NE 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 41 41 NE 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 40 40 NE 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 40 40 NE 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 42 42 NE 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 45 45 NE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 50 51 NE 3 2504 2470 320 Blue 1
11 AM Mon 55 56 NE 3 2687 2576 426 Blue 6
12 Noon Mon 59 61 NE 3 2929 2759 609 Blue 11
1 PM Mon 62 64 N 3 3512 2926 776 Blue 14
2 PM Mon 64 65 N 5 3709 3104 954 Blue 15
3 PM Mon 65 66 NW 5 3906 3301 1151 Blue 16
4 PM Mon 65 65 W 5 3709 3104 954 Blue 15
5 PM Mon 64 64 W 6 3512 2926 776 Blue 14
6 PM Mon 62 62 W 5 3116 2815 665 Blue 12
7 PM Mon 60 60 W 5 2873 2722 572 Blue 10
8 PM Mon 57 57 NW 3 2723 2612 462 Blue 7
9 PM Mon 54 54 NW 3 2614 2503 353 Blue 4
10 PM Mon 51 51 N 2 2504 2470 320 Blue 1
11 PM Mon 49 49 N 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 48 48 N 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 48 48 N 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 48 48 N 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 46 46 NE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 45 45 NE 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com