Detailed Predictions for: Shaw Butte
Launch Altitude (f): 2150
LZ Altitude (f): 1050
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

19 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 53 53 NE 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 51 51 NE 7 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 52 52 NE 7 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 54 54 NE 8 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 62 63 NE 9 2635 2513 363 Blue 4
10 AM Sun 68 70 E 10 2901 2752 602 Blue 11
11 AM Sun 70 73 E 10 3223 2899 749 Blue 14
12 Noon Sun 74 77 E 10 3811 3281 1131 Blue 17
1 PM Sun 76 79 E 8 4406 3568 1418 Blue 19
2 PM Sun 77 79 E 6 4406 3568 1418 Blue 19
3 PM Sun 78 79 E 3 4406 3568 1418 Blue 19
4 PM Sun 78 78 NE 2 3890 3343 1193 Blue 18
5 PM Sun 74 74 N 1 3285 2993 843 Blue 14
6 PM Sun 70 70 NE 1 2901 2752 602 Blue 11
7 PM Sun 67 67 NE 3 2754 2663 513 Blue 8
8 PM Sun 65 65 NE 5 2694 2610 460 Blue 6
9 PM Sun 62 62 NE 5 2433 2433 283 White 0
10 PM Sun 60 60 NE 6 1991 2150 0 White 0
11 PM Sun 59 59 NE 6 1771 2150 0 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 58 58 NE 6 1549 2150 0 White 0
1 AM Mon 56 56 NE 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 55 55 NE 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 54 54 NE 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 53 53 NE 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 53 53 NE 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 53 53 NE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 52 52 NE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 54 54 NE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 62 62 E 3 2433 2433 283 White 0
10 AM Mon 67 68 SE 2 2800 2693 543 Blue 9
11 AM Mon 71 73 SE 2 3223 2899 749 Blue 14
12 Noon Mon 74 77 S 2 3811 3281 1131 Blue 17
1 PM Mon 77 79 S 2 4406 3568 1418 Blue 19
2 PM Mon 78 79 SW 2 4406 3568 1418 Blue 19
3 PM Mon 78 79 SW 2 4406 3568 1418 Blue 19
4 PM Mon 77 77 W 3 3811 3281 1131 Blue 17
5 PM Mon 76 76 W 3 3593 3219 1069 Blue 16
6 PM Mon 73 73 W 3 3223 2899 749 Blue 14
7 PM Mon 69 69 NW 3 2851 2722 572 Blue 10
8 PM Mon 66 66 NW 2 2724 2634 484 Blue 7
9 PM Mon 64 64 N 2 2664 2581 431 Blue 5
10 PM Mon 63 63 NE 2 2635 2513 363 Blue 4
11 PM Mon 62 62 NE 2 2433 2433 283 White 0
12 Midnight Tue 61 61 E 2 2212 2212 62 White 0
1 AM Tue 59 59 E 3 1771 2150 0 White 0
2 AM Tue 58 58 E 3 1549 2150 0 White 0
3 AM Tue 57 57 E 2 1328 2150 0 White 0
4 AM Tue 57 57 E 2 1328 2150 0 White 0
5 AM Tue 56 56 E 2 1299 2150 0 White 0
6 AM Tue 55 55 E 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 55 55 E 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 57 57 SE 1 1328 2150 0 White 0
9 AM Tue 62 62 SE 1 2433 2433 283 White 0
10 AM Tue 68 69 S 1 2851 2722 572 Blue 10
11 AM Tue 74 76 S 1 3593 3219 1069 Blue 16
12 Noon Tue 79 81 S 1 5417 3883 1733 Blue 21
1 PM Tue 81 83 S 2 5734 5238 3088 Blue 23
2 PM Tue 83 84 SW 2 6026 5396 3246 Blue 24
3 PM Tue 83 84 SW 3 6026 5396 3246 Blue 24
4 PM Tue 82 82 W 5 5575 4312 2162 Blue 22
5 PM Tue 80 80 W 5 5259 3804 1654 Blue 20
6 PM Tue 78 78 W 5 3890 3343 1193 Blue 18
7 PM Tue 74 74 NW 6 3285 2993 843 Blue 14
8 PM Tue 71 71 N 6 3008 2798 648 Blue 12
9 PM Tue 68 68 N 6 2800 2693 543 Blue 9
10 PM Tue 67 67 NE 6 2754 2663 513 Blue 8
11 PM Tue 65 65 NE 6 2694 2610 460 Blue 6
12 Midnight Wed 64 64 NE 6 2664 2581 431 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 63 63 NE 6 2635 2513 363 Blue 4
2 AM Wed 62 62 NE 7 2433 2433 283 White 0
3 AM Wed 62 62 NE 7 2433 2433 283 White 0
4 AM Wed 61 61 NE 7 2212 2212 62 White 0
5 AM Wed 60 60 NE 8 1991 2150 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 59 59 NE 8 1771 2150 0 White 0
7 AM Wed 59 59 NE 8 1771 2150 0 White 0
8 AM Wed 61 61 E 9 2212 2212 62 White 0
9 AM Wed 66 66 E 9 2724 2634 484 Blue 7
10 AM Wed 73 74 E 9 3285 2993 843 Blue 14
11 AM Wed 79 81 E 9 5417 3883 1733 Blue 21
12 Noon Wed 84 86 E 8 7661 5711 3561 White 26
1 PM Wed 86 88 NE 7 8078 6632 4482 White 28
2 PM Wed 87 89 N 5 8287 7312 5162 White 29
3 PM Wed 87 88 NW 3 8078 6632 4482 White 28
4 PM Wed 86 86 W 2 7661 5711 3561 White 26
5 PM Wed 84 84 W 2 6026 5396 3246 Blue 24
6 PM Wed 81 81 W 2 5417 3883 1733 Blue 21
7 PM Wed 78 78 NW 3 3890 3343 1193 Blue 18
8 PM Wed 75 75 N 3 3347 3156 1006 Blue 15
9 PM Wed 72 72 N 5 3160 2848 698 Blue 13
10 PM Wed 71 71 NE 6 3008 2798 648 Blue 12
11 PM Wed 69 69 NE 7 2851 2722 572 Blue 10
12 Midnight Thu 68 68 NE 7 2800 2693 543 Blue 9
1 AM Thu 66 66 NE 7 2724 2634 484 Blue 7
2 AM Thu 65 65 NE 7 2694 2610 460 Blue 6
3 AM Thu 64 64 NE 7 2664 2581 431 Blue 5
4 AM Thu 63 63 NE 7 2635 2513 363 Blue 4
5 AM Thu 62 62 NE 7 2433 2433 283 White 0
6 AM Thu 61 61 NE 6 2212 2212 62 White 0
7 AM Thu 61 61 E 6 2212 2212 62 White 0
8 AM Thu 63 63 E 6 2635 2513 363 Blue 4
9 AM Thu 68 69 E 6 2851 2722 572 Blue 10
10 AM Thu 74 76 E 5 3593 3219 1069 Blue 16
11 AM Thu 80 83 E 5 5734 5238 3088 Blue 23
12 Noon Thu 84 87 E 5 7869 5912 3762 White 27
1 PM Thu 87 90 NE 3 8494 8494 6344 White 30
2 PM Thu 88 90 N 3 8494 8494 6344 White 30
3 PM Thu 88 89 NW 2 8287 7312 5162 White 29
4 PM Thu 87 87 NW 2 7869 5912 3762 White 27
5 PM Thu 84 84 W 2 6026 5396 3246 Blue 24
6 PM Thu 80 80 W 2 5259 3804 1654 Blue 20
7 PM Thu 76 76 NW 2 3593 3219 1069 Blue 16
8 PM Thu 72 72 N 3 3160 2848 698 Blue 13
9 PM Thu 70 70 N 3 2901 2752 602 Blue 11
10 PM Thu 69 69 NE 3 2851 2722 572 Blue 10
11 PM Thu 68 68 NE 5 2800 2693 543 Blue 9
12 Midnight Fri 66 66 NE 5 2724 2634 484 Blue 7
1 AM Fri 65 65 NE 5 2694 2610 460 Blue 6
2 AM Fri 63 63 E 5 2635 2513 363 Blue 4
3 AM Fri 62 62 E 5 2433 2433 283 White 0
4 AM Fri 62 62 E 5 2433 2433 283 White 0
5 AM Fri 61 61 E 5 2212 2212 62 White 0
6 AM Fri 60 60 E 5 1991 2150 0 White 0
7 AM Fri 60 60 E 3 1991 2150 0 White 0
8 AM Fri 62 62 E 3 2433 2433 283 White 0
9 AM Fri 67 67 E 3 2754 2663 513 Blue 8
10 AM Fri 73 75 SE 3 3347 3156 1006 Blue 15
11 AM Fri 78 80 SE 3 5259 3804 1654 Blue 20
12 Noon Fri 82 85 SE 3 6756 5554 3404 Blue 25
1 PM Fri 85 88 S 2 8078 6632 4482 White 28
2 PM Fri 86 88 S 2 8078 6632 4482 White 28
3 PM Fri 86 87 SW 2 7869 5912 3762 White 27
4 PM Fri 85 85 W 2 6756 5554 3404 Blue 25
5 PM Fri 83 83 W 2 5734 5238 3088 Blue 23
6 PM Fri 79 79 W 1 4406 3568 1418 Blue 19
7 PM Fri 75 75 NW 1 3347 3156 1006 Blue 15
8 PM Fri 72 72 NW 1 3160 2848 698 Blue 13
9 PM Fri 69 69 N 2 2851 2722 572 Blue 10
10 PM Fri 68 68 NE 2 2800 2693 543 Blue 9
11 PM Fri 66 66 NE 2 2724 2634 484 Blue 7
12 Midnight Sat 65 65 NE 2 2694 2610 460 Blue 6
1 AM Sat 64 64 NE 2 2664 2581 431 Blue 5
2 AM Sat 63 63 NE 3 2635 2513 363 Blue 4
3 AM Sat 62 62 NE 3 2433 2433 283 White 0
4 AM Sat 61 61 E 3 2212 2212 62 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com