Detailed Predictions for: Shaw Butte
Launch Altitude (f): 2150
LZ Altitude (f): 1050
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

1 DEC 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 47 47 E 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 45 45 E 2 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 45 45 SE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 46 46 SE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 53 53 SE 3 2600 2485 335 Blue 3
10 AM Tue 58 59 S 3 2812 2707 557 Blue 9
11 AM Tue 62 64 S 3 3082 2879 729 Blue 14
12 Noon Tue 65 68 SW 5 3762 3171 1021 Blue 18
1 PM Tue 68 71 SW 5 4073 3753 1603 Blue 21
2 PM Tue 69 71 W 5 4073 3753 1603 Blue 21
3 PM Tue 71 72 W 5 4388 3853 1703 Blue 22
4 PM Tue 70 70 SW 5 3963 3362 1212 Blue 20
5 PM Tue 67 67 SW 2 3369 3076 926 Blue 17
6 PM Tue 63 63 E 2 2986 2845 695 Blue 13
7 PM Tue 60 60 NE 5 2847 2741 591 Blue 10
8 PM Tue 58 58 NE 6 2778 2673 523 Blue 8
9 PM Tue 56 56 NE 7 2709 2598 448 Blue 6
10 PM Tue 54 54 NE 7 2637 2523 373 Blue 4
11 PM Tue 53 53 NE 6 2600 2485 335 Blue 3
12 Midnight Wed 51 51 NE 6 2525 2470 320 Blue 1
1 AM Wed 49 49 NE 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 48 48 NE 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 47 47 NE 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 46 46 NE 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 46 46 NE 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 45 45 NE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 43 43 NE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 45 45 NE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 52 52 NE 3 2562 2470 320 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 58 59 NE 3 2812 2707 557 Blue 9
11 AM Wed 62 64 E 3 3082 2879 729 Blue 14
12 Noon Wed 65 67 NE 3 3369 3076 926 Blue 17
1 PM Wed 67 69 N 3 3862 3267 1117 Blue 19
2 PM Wed 67 69 N 3 3862 3267 1117 Blue 19
3 PM Wed 67 68 N 3 3762 3171 1021 Blue 18
4 PM Wed 67 67 N 3 3369 3076 926 Blue 17
5 PM Wed 65 65 NW 5 3177 2914 764 Blue 15
6 PM Wed 62 62 N 7 2916 2810 660 Blue 12
7 PM Wed 58 58 N 8 2778 2673 523 Blue 8
8 PM Wed 55 55 NE 10 2674 2561 411 Blue 5
9 PM Wed 53 53 NE 12 2600 2485 335 Blue 3
10 PM Wed 51 51 NE 13 2525 2470 320 Blue 1
11 PM Wed 50 50 NE 13 2487 2470 320 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 49 49 NE 13 0 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 49 49 NE 12 0 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 48 48 NE 12 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 47 47 NE 12 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 46 46 NE 10 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 46 46 NE 10 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 45 45 NE 9 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 46 46 NE 9 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 47 47 NE 9 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 51 51 NE 10 2525 2470 320 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 56 57 NE 13 2743 2636 486 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 60 62 NE 14 2916 2810 660 Blue 12
12 Noon Thu 62 65 NE 13 3177 2914 764 Blue 15
1 PM Thu 64 66 E 12 3273 2981 831 Blue 16
2 PM Thu 64 66 E 10 3273 2981 831 Blue 16
3 PM Thu 64 65 E 9 3177 2914 764 Blue 15
4 PM Thu 64 64 NE 8 3082 2879 729 Blue 14
5 PM Thu 62 62 NE 8 2916 2810 660 Blue 12
6 PM Thu 59 59 NE 8 2812 2707 557 Blue 9
7 PM Thu 56 56 NE 8 2709 2598 448 Blue 6
8 PM Thu 53 53 NE 8 2600 2485 335 Blue 3
9 PM Thu 51 51 NE 8 2525 2470 320 Blue 1
10 PM Thu 50 50 NE 9 2487 2470 320 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 49 49 NE 9 0 2150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 48 48 NE 8 0 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 48 48 NE 7 0 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 47 47 NE 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 46 46 NE 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 45 45 NE 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 45 45 NE 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 44 44 NE 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 45 45 NE 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 46 46 NE 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 49 49 NE 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 54 55 E 6 2674 2561 411 Blue 5
11 AM Fri 58 60 E 6 2847 2741 591 Blue 10
12 Noon Fri 61 63 E 6 2986 2845 695 Blue 13
1 PM Fri 63 65 E 5 3177 2914 764 Blue 15
2 PM Fri 64 66 E 5 3273 2981 831 Blue 16
3 PM Fri 64 65 E 5 3177 2914 764 Blue 15
4 PM Fri 64 64 E 3 3082 2879 729 Blue 14
5 PM Fri 62 62 E 3 2916 2810 660 Blue 12
6 PM Fri 59 59 E 3 2812 2707 557 Blue 9
7 PM Fri 56 56 NE 3 2709 2598 448 Blue 6
8 PM Fri 53 53 NE 3 2600 2485 335 Blue 3
9 PM Fri 52 52 NE 3 2562 2470 320 Blue 2
10 PM Fri 51 51 NE 5 2525 2470 320 Blue 1
11 PM Fri 50 50 NE 5 2487 2470 320 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 49 49 NE 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 48 48 NE 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 47 47 NE 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 46 46 NE 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 45 45 NE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 45 45 NE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 44 44 NE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 44 44 NE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 45 45 NE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 49 49 NE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 55 56 E 5 2709 2598 448 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 60 62 E 5 2916 2810 660 Blue 12
12 Noon Sat 63 65 E 5 3177 2914 764 Blue 15
1 PM Sat 66 68 E 3 3762 3171 1021 Blue 18
2 PM Sat 67 69 E 3 3862 3267 1117 Blue 19
3 PM Sat 67 68 SE 3 3762 3171 1021 Blue 18
4 PM Sat 67 67 S 3 3369 3076 926 Blue 17
5 PM Sat 65 65 S 3 3177 2914 764 Blue 15
6 PM Sat 62 62 S 3 2916 2810 660 Blue 12
7 PM Sat 58 58 E 2 2778 2673 523 Blue 8
8 PM Sat 55 55 NE 2 2674 2561 411 Blue 5
9 PM Sat 54 54 NE 3 2637 2523 373 Blue 4
10 PM Sat 53 53 NE 3 2600 2485 335 Blue 3
11 PM Sat 52 52 NE 5 2562 2470 320 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sun 51 51 NE 5 2525 2470 320 Blue 1
1 AM Sun 49 49 NE 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 48 48 NE 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 47 47 NE 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 46 46 NE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 46 46 NE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 45 45 NE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 45 45 NE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 47 47 NE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 51 51 NE 3 2525 2470 320 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 56 57 E 5 2743 2636 486 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 61 63 E 5 2986 2845 695 Blue 13
12 Noon Sun 64 66 E 5 3273 2981 831 Blue 16
1 PM Sun 67 69 E 5 3862 3267 1117 Blue 19
2 PM Sun 68 70 E 5 3963 3362 1212 Blue 20
3 PM Sun 68 69 E 5 3862 3267 1117 Blue 19
4 PM Sun 68 68 E 3 3762 3171 1021 Blue 18
5 PM Sun 66 66 E 3 3273 2981 831 Blue 16
6 PM Sun 63 63 E 3 2986 2845 695 Blue 13
7 PM Sun 60 60 E 2 2847 2741 591 Blue 10
8 PM Sun 57 57 NE 2 2743 2636 486 Blue 7
9 PM Sun 55 55 NE 3 2674 2561 411 Blue 5
10 PM Sun 54 54 NE 3 2637 2523 373 Blue 4
11 PM Sun 53 53 NE 5 2600 2485 335 Blue 3
12 Midnight Mon 52 52 NE 5 2562 2470 320 Blue 2
1 AM Mon 50 50 NE 3 2487 2470 320 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 49 49 NE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 48 48 NE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 47 47 NE 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com