Detailed Predictions for: South Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 2600
LZ Altitude (f): 1400
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

19 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 65 65 SE 3 2674 2608 8 Blue 5
6 AM Tue 64 64 SE 3 2652 2600 0 Blue 4
7 AM Tue 64 64 E 3 2652 2600 0 Blue 4
8 AM Tue 66 66 E 3 2696 2630 30 Blue 6
9 AM Tue 67 67 E 3 2718 2652 52 Blue 7
10 AM Tue 68 68 E 3 2740 2674 74 Blue 8
11 AM Tue 70 71 E 3 2918 2739 139 Blue 11
12 Noon Tue 72 73 E 3 3543 2798 198 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 72 72 SE 3 3270 2761 161 Blue 12
2 PM Tue 71 71 SE 3 2918 2739 139 Blue 11
3 PM Tue 68 68 SE 6 2740 2674 74 Blue 8
4 PM Tue 67 67 SE 7 2718 2652 52 Blue 7
5 PM Tue 65 65 E 9 2674 2608 8 Blue 5
6 PM Tue 65 65 E 10 2674 2608 8 Blue 5
7 PM Tue 64 64 SE 12 2652 2600 0 Blue 4
8 PM Tue 65 65 SE 12 2674 2608 8 Blue 5
9 PM Tue 65 65 SE 12 2674 2608 8 Blue 5
10 PM Tue 66 66 SE 12 2696 2630 30 Blue 6
11 PM Tue 66 66 SE 12 2696 2630 30 Blue 6
12 Midnight Wed 66 66 SE 12 2696 2630 30 Blue 6
1 AM Wed 66 66 S 13 2696 2630 30 Blue 6
2 AM Wed 66 66 S 14 2696 2630 30 Blue 6
3 AM Wed 66 66 S 15 2696 2630 30 Blue 6
4 AM Wed 66 66 S 17 2696 2630 30 Blue 6
5 AM Wed 65 65 S 18 2674 2608 8 Blue 5
6 AM Wed 65 65 S 20 2674 2608 8 Blue 5
7 AM Wed 62 62 S 22 2608 2600 0 Blue 2
8 AM Wed 62 62 S 23 2608 2600 0 Blue 2
9 AM Wed 59 59 S 24 0 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 58 58 S 24 0 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 58 58 S 24 0 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 58 58 S 24 0 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 59 59 S 24 0 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 59 59 S 23 0 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 57 57 S 22 0 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 56 56 SW 20 0 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 54 54 SW 17 0 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 54 54 SW 15 0 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 54 54 SW 13 0 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 55 55 S 12 0 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 57 57 S 12 0 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 58 58 S 12 0 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 59 59 S 12 0 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 59 59 S 12 0 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 59 59 S 10 0 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 59 59 S 10 0 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 59 59 S 10 0 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 60 60 S 10 2520 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 60 60 S 10 2520 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 60 60 S 9 2520 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 60 60 S 8 2520 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 59 59 S 7 0 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 58 58 S 7 0 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 57 57 S 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 56 56 S 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 57 58 S 5 0 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 57 58 SW 3 0 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 58 59 SW 2 0 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 57 57 SW 2 0 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 56 56 SW 1 0 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 55 55 SW 1 0 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 54 54 SW 2 0 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 54 54 SW 2 0 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 54 54 S 3 0 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 54 54 S 5 0 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 54 54 S 5 0 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 55 55 SE 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 56 56 SE 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 56 56 SE 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 56 56 SE 5 0 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 56 56 SE 5 0 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 56 56 SE 5 0 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 56 56 SE 5 0 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 56 56 SE 5 0 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 56 56 SE 5 0 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 55 55 SE 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 55 55 E 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 54 55 E 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 55 57 E 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 57 59 E 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 59 61 E 5 2583 2600 0 Blue 1
2 PM Fri 60 62 E 5 2608 2600 0 Blue 2
3 PM Fri 60 61 E 3 2583 2600 0 Blue 1
4 PM Fri 59 59 E 3 0 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 58 58 E 3 0 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 57 57 E 3 0 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 57 57 E 3 0 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 56 56 NE 3 0 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 56 56 NE 5 0 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 56 56 NE 5 0 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 56 56 N 5 0 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 57 57 N 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 57 57 NE 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 56 56 NE 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 56 56 NE 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 56 56 NE 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 56 56 NE 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 55 55 NE 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 55 55 NE 7 0 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 55 55 E 7 0 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 56 56 E 7 0 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 57 58 E 7 0 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 59 60 E 7 2520 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 62 64 E 6 2652 2600 0 Blue 4
1 PM Sat 64 66 NE 6 2696 2630 30 Blue 6
2 PM Sat 65 66 NE 5 2696 2630 30 Blue 6
3 PM Sat 65 66 NE 3 2696 2630 30 Blue 6
4 PM Sat 64 64 N 3 2652 2600 0 Blue 4
5 PM Sat 63 63 N 3 2630 2600 0 Blue 3
6 PM Sat 62 62 N 3 2608 2600 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sat 61 61 N 3 2583 2600 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sat 60 60 N 3 2520 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 60 60 N 5 2520 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 60 60 N 5 2520 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 60 60 N 5 2520 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 60 60 N 6 2520 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 59 59 N 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 59 59 NE 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 58 58 NE 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 57 57 NE 7 0 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 57 57 NE 7 0 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 56 56 NE 7 0 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 56 56 NE 7 0 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 57 57 NE 7 0 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 57 57 E 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 58 59 E 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 59 60 E 6 2520 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 61 62 NE 6 2608 2600 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sun 63 64 NE 5 2652 2600 0 Blue 4
2 PM Sun 64 65 N 5 2674 2608 8 Blue 5
3 PM Sun 64 64 NW 5 2652 2600 0 Blue 4
4 PM Sun 64 64 W 3 2652 2600 0 Blue 4
5 PM Sun 62 62 W 3 2608 2600 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sun 61 61 W 3 2583 2600 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 59 59 NW 3 0 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 58 58 NW 3 0 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 58 58 NW 3 0 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 58 58 N 5 0 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 58 58 N 5 0 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 58 58 N 5 0 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 58 58 N 5 0 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 57 57 NE 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 57 57 NE 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 57 57 NE 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com