Detailed Predictions for: South Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 2600
LZ Altitude (f): 1400
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

26 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 63 63 NE 5 2837 2635 35 Blue 5
7 AM Tue 62 62 E 5 2770 2600 0 Blue 4
8 AM Tue 62 62 E 5 2770 2600 0 Blue 4
9 AM Tue 66 67 E 6 2965 2877 277 Blue 9
10 AM Tue 69 71 E 5 3125 2993 393 Blue 13
11 AM Tue 70 73 E 6 3438 3051 451 Blue 15
12 Noon Tue 73 75 E 5 3750 3277 677 Blue 17
1 PM Tue 76 80 SE 5 4972 4462 1862 Blue 22
2 PM Tue 79 81 SE 5 5462 4532 1932 Blue 23
3 PM Tue 81 81 SW 6 5462 4532 1932 Blue 23
4 PM Tue 81 82 W 6 5940 4652 2052 Blue 24
5 PM Tue 81 81 W 6 5462 4532 1932 Blue 23
6 PM Tue 80 80 W 6 4972 4462 1862 Blue 22
7 PM Tue 78 78 W 6 4537 3743 1143 Blue 20
8 PM Tue 76 76 W 5 3906 3432 832 Blue 18
9 PM Tue 74 74 W 3 3594 3121 521 Blue 16
10 PM Tue 73 73 W 3 3438 3051 451 Blue 15
11 PM Tue 71 71 W 2 3125 2993 393 Blue 13
12 Midnight Wed 71 71 W 2 3125 2993 393 Blue 13
1 AM Wed 70 70 W 2 3052 2964 364 Blue 12
2 AM Wed 69 69 W 2 3023 2935 335 Blue 11
3 AM Wed 68 68 W 2 2994 2906 306 Blue 10
4 AM Wed 67 67 SE 2 2965 2877 277 Blue 9
5 AM Wed 65 65 SE 2 2907 2769 169 Blue 7
6 AM Wed 65 65 SE 2 2907 2769 169 Blue 7
7 AM Wed 65 65 SE 3 2907 2769 169 Blue 7
8 AM Wed 65 65 SE 3 2907 2769 169 Blue 7
9 AM Wed 67 68 SE 3 2994 2906 306 Blue 10
10 AM Wed 70 71 SE 2 3125 2993 393 Blue 13
11 AM Wed 72 72 SE 3 3282 3022 422 Blue 14
12 Noon Wed 74 74 S 3 3594 3121 521 Blue 16
1 PM Wed 76 76 S 5 3906 3432 832 Blue 18
2 PM Wed 78 78 SW 5 4537 3743 1143 Blue 20
3 PM Wed 79 79 SW 6 4675 3898 1298 Blue 21
4 PM Wed 79 79 SW 6 4675 3898 1298 Blue 21
5 PM Wed 79 79 W 6 4675 3898 1298 Blue 21
6 PM Wed 78 78 W 6 4537 3743 1143 Blue 20
7 PM Wed 77 77 W 5 4467 3587 987 Blue 19
8 PM Wed 75 75 W 5 3750 3277 677 Blue 17
9 PM Wed 73 73 W 3 3438 3051 451 Blue 15
10 PM Wed 72 72 W 3 3282 3022 422 Blue 14
11 PM Wed 70 70 W 3 3052 2964 364 Blue 12
12 Midnight Thu 69 69 W 3 3023 2935 335 Blue 11
1 AM Thu 68 68 W 3 2994 2906 306 Blue 10
2 AM Thu 67 67 SW 5 2965 2877 277 Blue 9
3 AM Thu 66 66 SW 5 2936 2836 236 Blue 8
4 AM Thu 64 64 SW 5 2878 2702 102 Blue 6
5 AM Thu 63 63 SW 5 2837 2635 35 Blue 5
6 AM Thu 62 62 SW 5 2770 2600 0 Blue 4
7 AM Thu 62 62 SW 5 2770 2600 0 Blue 4
8 AM Thu 63 64 SW 5 2878 2702 102 Blue 6
9 AM Thu 65 67 SW 5 2965 2877 277 Blue 9
10 AM Thu 67 71 SW 5 3125 2993 393 Blue 13
11 AM Thu 70 76 SW 6 3906 3432 832 Blue 18
12 Noon Thu 72 79 SW 7 4675 3898 1298 Blue 21
1 PM Thu 74 80 W 9 4972 4462 1862 Blue 22
2 PM Thu 76 82 W 10 5940 4652 2052 Blue 24
3 PM Thu 77 81 W 13 5462 4532 1932 Blue 23
4 PM Thu 77 79 W 14 4675 3898 1298 Blue 21
5 PM Thu 77 77 W 14 4467 3587 987 Blue 19
6 PM Thu 76 76 W 14 3906 3432 832 Blue 18
7 PM Thu 74 74 W 13 3594 3121 521 Blue 16
8 PM Thu 72 72 W 12 3282 3022 422 Blue 14
9 PM Thu 70 70 W 10 3052 2964 364 Blue 12
10 PM Thu 68 68 W 9 2994 2906 306 Blue 10
11 PM Thu 67 67 W 9 2965 2877 277 Blue 9
12 Midnight Fri 65 65 W 8 2907 2769 169 Blue 7
1 AM Fri 64 64 W 7 2878 2702 102 Blue 6
2 AM Fri 62 62 W 7 2770 2600 0 Blue 4
3 AM Fri 61 61 W 6 2703 2600 0 Blue 3
4 AM Fri 60 60 W 6 2636 2600 0 Blue 2
5 AM Fri 58 58 W 6 2477 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 58 58 SW 6 2477 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 59 59 SW 6 2563 2600 0 Blue 1
8 AM Fri 60 61 SW 6 2703 2600 0 Blue 3
9 AM Fri 62 64 SW 6 2878 2702 102 Blue 6
10 AM Fri 64 68 SW 6 2994 2906 306 Blue 10
11 AM Fri 67 73 W 6 3438 3051 451 Blue 15
12 Noon Fri 69 75 W 6 3750 3277 677 Blue 17
1 PM Fri 71 77 W 7 4467 3587 987 Blue 19
2 PM Fri 74 80 W 9 4972 4462 1862 Blue 22
3 PM Fri 75 79 W 10 4675 3898 1298 Blue 21
4 PM Fri 76 78 W 10 4537 3743 1143 Blue 20
5 PM Fri 76 77 W 10 4467 3587 987 Blue 19
6 PM Fri 75 75 W 10 3750 3277 677 Blue 17
7 PM Fri 73 73 W 10 3438 3051 451 Blue 15
8 PM Fri 71 71 W 9 3125 2993 393 Blue 13
9 PM Fri 69 69 W 9 3023 2935 335 Blue 11
10 PM Fri 68 68 W 9 2994 2906 306 Blue 10
11 PM Fri 66 66 W 8 2936 2836 236 Blue 8
12 Midnight Sat 65 65 W 8 2907 2769 169 Blue 7
1 AM Sat 64 64 NW 8 2878 2702 102 Blue 6
2 AM Sat 62 62 NW 8 2770 2600 0 Blue 4
3 AM Sat 61 61 N 8 2703 2600 0 Blue 3
4 AM Sat 60 60 N 8 2636 2600 0 Blue 2
5 AM Sat 59 59 NE 8 2563 2600 0 Blue 1
6 AM Sat 59 59 NE 8 2563 2600 0 Blue 1
7 AM Sat 59 59 NE 8 2563 2600 0 Blue 1
8 AM Sat 60 61 NE 7 2703 2600 0 Blue 3
9 AM Sat 62 64 NE 7 2878 2702 102 Blue 6
10 AM Sat 64 68 NE 7 2994 2906 306 Blue 10
11 AM Sat 66 71 NE 8 3125 2993 393 Blue 13
12 Noon Sat 69 75 NE 9 3750 3277 677 Blue 17
1 PM Sat 72 78 N 10 4537 3743 1143 Blue 20
2 PM Sat 74 79 N 10 4675 3898 1298 Blue 21
3 PM Sat 76 80 N 12 4972 4462 1862 Blue 22
4 PM Sat 77 79 N 13 4675 3898 1298 Blue 21
5 PM Sat 76 77 NW 14 4467 3587 987 Blue 19
6 PM Sat 75 75 NW 14 3750 3277 677 Blue 17
7 PM Sat 73 73 NW 14 3438 3051 451 Blue 15
8 PM Sat 71 71 W 14 3125 2993 393 Blue 13
9 PM Sat 69 69 W 13 3023 2935 335 Blue 11
10 PM Sat 68 68 NW 12 2994 2906 306 Blue 10
11 PM Sat 67 67 NW 12 2965 2877 277 Blue 9
12 Midnight Sun 66 66 N 10 2936 2836 236 Blue 8
1 AM Sun 65 65 N 10 2907 2769 169 Blue 7
2 AM Sun 63 63 N 10 2837 2635 35 Blue 5
3 AM Sun 62 62 N 10 2770 2600 0 Blue 4
4 AM Sun 61 61 N 10 2703 2600 0 Blue 3
5 AM Sun 59 59 NE 9 2563 2600 0 Blue 1
6 AM Sun 59 59 NE 9 2563 2600 0 Blue 1
7 AM Sun 59 59 NE 9 2563 2600 0 Blue 1
8 AM Sun 60 61 NE 9 2703 2600 0 Blue 3
9 AM Sun 62 64 E 10 2878 2702 102 Blue 6
10 AM Sun 64 68 E 12 2994 2906 306 Blue 10
11 AM Sun 67 73 E 12 3438 3051 451 Blue 15
12 Noon Sun 69 75 E 13 3750 3277 677 Blue 17
1 PM Sun 71 77 E 14 4467 3587 987 Blue 19
2 PM Sun 74 79 E 14 4675 3898 1298 Blue 21
3 PM Sun 75 79 E 14 4675 3898 1298 Blue 21
4 PM Sun 76 78 E 14 4537 3743 1143 Blue 20
5 PM Sun 76 77 E 14 4467 3587 987 Blue 19
6 PM Sun 75 75 E 13 3750 3277 677 Blue 17
7 PM Sun 73 73 E 10 3438 3051 451 Blue 15
8 PM Sun 71 71 E 9 3125 2993 393 Blue 13
9 PM Sun 69 69 E 7 3023 2935 335 Blue 11
10 PM Sun 68 68 NE 6 2994 2906 306 Blue 10
11 PM Sun 66 66 NE 6 2936 2836 236 Blue 8
12 Midnight Mon 65 65 N 6 2907 2769 169 Blue 7
1 AM Mon 64 64 N 6 2878 2702 102 Blue 6
2 AM Mon 62 62 NE 6 2770 2600 0 Blue 4
3 AM Mon 61 61 NE 6 2703 2600 0 Blue 3
4 AM Mon 60 60 NE 6 2636 2600 0 Blue 2
5 AM Mon 59 59 NE 7 2563 2600 0 Blue 1

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com