Detailed Predictions for: South Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.330881748, -112.061150641, 2600
LZ Altitude (f): 1400
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

2 OCT 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 80 80 SW 6 8 4061 3273 673 Blue 9
1 AM Sun 80 80 WSW 6 8 4061 3273 673 Blue 9
2 AM Sun 78 78 SW 6 6 3818 3098 498 Blue 7
3 AM Sun 78 78 E 6 6 3818 3098 498 Blue 7
4 AM Sun 76 76 SE 5 5 3188 2923 323 Blue 5
5 AM Sun 76 76 SE 6 6 3188 2923 323 Blue 5
6 AM Sun 75 75 SE 5 5 3100 2835 235 Blue 4
7 AM Sun 75 75 SE 5 5 3100 2835 235 Blue 4
8 AM Sun 76 76 SE 4 5 3188 2923 323 Blue 5
9 AM Sun 79 81 ESE 4 6 4183 3812 1212 Blue 10
10 AM Sun 81 84 ESE 4 8 5247 4176 1576 White 13
11 AM Sun 85 90 SE 4 9 6554 6554 3954 White 19
12 Noon Sun 87 92 SSE 4 9 6984 6984 4384 White 21
1 PM Sun 89 94 SSE 4 10 7409 7409 4809 White 23
2 PM Sun 90 94 S 5 10 7409 7409 4809 White 23
3 PM Sun 91 94 S 5 10 7409 7409 4809 White 23
4 PM Sun 91 92 SSW 4 11 6984 6984 4384 White 21
5 PM Sun 90 90 SSW 5 9 6554 6554 3954 White 19
6 PM Sun 88 88 SW 4 6 6121 6121 3521 White 17
7 PM Sun 86 86 W 3 3 5685 5685 3085 White 15
8 PM Sun 85 85 WNW 5 5 5466 4339 1739 White 14
9 PM Sun 84 84 NW 4 4 5247 4176 1576 White 13
10 PM Sun 84 84 N 5 5 5247 4176 1576 White 13
11 PM Sun 82 82 E 6 6 4803 3933 1333 White 11
12 Midnight Mon 81 81 E 6 8 4183 3812 1212 Blue 10
1 AM Mon 80 80 NNE 8 9 4061 3273 673 Blue 9
2 AM Mon 79 79 E 8 8 3939 3185 585 Blue 8
3 AM Mon 78 78 NE 9 9 3818 3098 498 Blue 7
4 AM Mon 77 77 ENE 6 6 3276 3010 410 Blue 6
5 AM Mon 76 76 E 6 8 3188 2923 323 Blue 5
6 AM Mon 75 75 E 8 8 3100 2835 235 Blue 4
7 AM Mon 75 75 ESE 8 9 3100 2835 235 Blue 4
8 AM Mon 77 77 E 6 10 3276 3010 410 Blue 6
9 AM Mon 80 82 E 6 10 4803 3933 1333 White 11
10 AM Mon 83 86 ESE 5 11 5685 5685 3085 White 15
11 AM Mon 85 90 ESE 5 11 6554 6554 3954 White 19
12 Noon Mon 87 92 ESE 4 10 6984 6984 4384 White 21
1 PM Mon 90 95 ESE 4 9 7622 7622 5022 White 24
2 PM Mon 91 95 ESE 4 9 7622 7622 5022 White 24
3 PM Mon 92 95 ENE 4 9 7622 7622 5022 White 24
4 PM Mon 92 93 N 4 10 7197 7197 4597 White 22
5 PM Mon 91 91 NW 5 11 6770 6770 4170 White 20
6 PM Mon 89 89 NNW 6 12 6338 6338 3738 White 18
7 PM Mon 86 86 NNE 9 12 5685 5685 3085 White 15
8 PM Mon 83 83 NE 10 12 5027 4054 1454 White 12
9 PM Mon 82 82 NE 10 11 4803 3933 1333 White 11
10 PM Mon 81 81 NE 9 11 4183 3812 1212 Blue 10
11 PM Mon 80 80 NE 8 10 4061 3273 673 Blue 9
12 Midnight Tue 79 79 NE 8 10 3939 3185 585 Blue 8
1 AM Tue 78 78 NE 9 10 3818 3098 498 Blue 7
2 AM Tue 77 77 NE 9 10 3276 3010 410 Blue 6
3 AM Tue 76 76 NE 9 9 3188 2923 323 Blue 5
4 AM Tue 75 75 ENE 9 9 3100 2835 235 Blue 4
5 AM Tue 75 75 ENE 8 8 3100 2835 235 Blue 4
6 AM Tue 74 74 ENE 6 6 3003 2643 43 White 3
7 AM Tue 74 74 E 6 6 3003 2643 43 White 3
8 AM Tue 75 75 E 5 6 3100 2835 235 Blue 4
9 AM Tue 77 79 E 4 6 3939 3185 585 Blue 8
10 AM Tue 81 84 E 4 8 5247 4176 1576 White 13
11 AM Tue 84 89 E 4 8 6338 6338 3738 White 18
12 Noon Tue 87 92 SE 4 8 6984 6984 4384 White 21
1 PM Tue 89 94 SW 5 9 7409 7409 4809 White 23
2 PM Tue 90 95 W 5 9 7622 7622 5022 White 24
3 PM Tue 90 93 W 5 10 7197 7197 4597 White 22
4 PM Tue 90 91 WNW 5 10 6770 6770 4170 White 20
5 PM Tue 89 89 WNW 5 10 6338 6338 3738 White 18
6 PM Tue 88 88 W 5 9 6121 6121 3521 White 17
7 PM Tue 86 86 SW 6 8 5685 5685 3085 White 15
8 PM Tue 84 84 SSW 6 6 5247 4176 1576 White 13
9 PM Tue 83 83 S 6 8 5027 4054 1454 White 12
10 PM Tue 81 81 SSE 8 8 4183 3812 1212 Blue 10
11 PM Tue 80 80 SE 8 9 4061 3273 673 Blue 9
12 Midnight Wed 79 79 SE 8 9 3939 3185 585 Blue 8
1 AM Wed 78 78 ESE 6 8 3818 3098 498 Blue 7
2 AM Wed 77 77 ESE 6 8 3276 3010 410 Blue 6
3 AM Wed 76 76 ESE 6 8 3188 2923 323 Blue 5
4 AM Wed 75 75 E 6 8 3100 2835 235 Blue 4
5 AM Wed 74 74 E 6 8 3003 2643 43 White 3
6 AM Wed 73 73 E 6 8 2779 2600 0 White 2
7 AM Wed 73 73 E 5 6 2779 2600 0 White 2
8 AM Wed 74 74 E 5 6 3003 2643 43 White 3
9 AM Wed 76 78 E 5 6 3818 3098 498 Blue 7
10 AM Wed 80 83 E 4 8 5027 4054 1454 White 12
11 AM Wed 83 87 E 4 9 5904 5904 3304 White 16
12 Noon Wed 86 91 ENE 4 10 6770 6770 4170 White 20
1 PM Wed 88 93 N 5 10 7197 7197 4597 White 22
2 PM Wed 89 93 NW 5 11 7197 7197 4597 White 22
3 PM Wed 90 93 NW 5 11 7197 7197 4597 White 22
4 PM Wed 90 91 WNW 6 11 6770 6770 4170 White 20
5 PM Wed 89 89 WNW 6 11 6338 6338 3738 White 18
6 PM Wed 87 87 NW 6 10 5904 5904 3304 White 16
7 PM Wed 85 85 N 6 8 5466 4339 1739 White 14
8 PM Wed 83 83 N 6 6 5027 4054 1454 White 12
9 PM Wed 82 82 NNE 6 6 4803 3933 1333 White 11
10 PM Wed 81 81 ENE 6 6 4183 3812 1212 Blue 10
11 PM Wed 80 80 E 6 8 4061 3273 673 Blue 9
12 Midnight Thu 79 79 E 6 8 3939 3185 585 Blue 8
1 AM Thu 77 77 E 8 8 3276 3010 410 Blue 6
2 AM Thu 76 76 E 8 8 3188 2923 323 Blue 5
3 AM Thu 75 75 E 8 9 3100 2835 235 Blue 4
4 AM Thu 74 74 ENE 9 9 3003 2643 43 White 3
5 AM Thu 73 73 ENE 9 10 2779 2600 0 White 2
6 AM Thu 73 73 ENE 8 10 2779 2600 0 White 2
7 AM Thu 74 74 E 8 10 3003 2643 43 White 3
8 AM Thu 75 75 E 6 10 3100 2835 235 Blue 4
9 AM Thu 78 80 E 6 11 4061 3273 673 Blue 9
10 AM Thu 81 84 E 8 12 5247 4176 1576 White 13
11 AM Thu 84 89 E 8 13 6338 6338 3738 White 18
12 Noon Thu 86 91 E 8 14 6770 6770 4170 White 20
1 PM Thu 88 93 E 8 14 7197 7197 4597 White 22
2 PM Thu 89 93 E 8 14 7197 7197 4597 White 22
3 PM Thu 89 92 E 8 14 6984 6984 4384 White 21
4 PM Thu 89 90 E 8 14 6554 6554 3954 White 19
5 PM Thu 88 88 ENE 8 13 6121 6121 3521 White 17
6 PM Thu 86 86 ENE 9 12 5685 5685 3085 White 15
7 PM Thu 84 84 E 9 11 5247 4176 1576 White 13
8 PM Thu 82 82 E 10 10 4803 3933 1333 White 11
9 PM Thu 80 80 E 11 12 4061 3273 673 Blue 9
10 PM Thu 79 79 E 11 12 3939 3185 585 Blue 8
11 PM Thu 78 78 E 11 11 3818 3098 498 Blue 7
12 Midnight Fri 77 77 E 11 11 3276 3010 410 Blue 6
1 AM Fri 77 77 E 10 11 3276 3010 410 Blue 6
2 AM Fri 76 76 E 10 11 3188 2923 323 Blue 5
3 AM Fri 75 75 E 10 11 3100 2835 235 Blue 4
4 AM Fri 74 74 ENE 10 10 3003 2643 43 White 3
5 AM Fri 73 73 ENE 10 10 2779 2600 0 White 2
6 AM Fri 73 73 ENE 10 10 2779 2600 0 White 2
7 AM Fri 74 74 E 10 11 3003 2643 43 White 3
8 AM Fri 75 75 E 10 12 3100 2835 235 Blue 4
9 AM Fri 78 79 E 11 14 3939 3185 585 Blue 8
10 AM Fri 81 84 E 12 16 5247 4176 1576 White 13
11 AM Fri 84 88 E 13 18 6121 6121 3521 White 17
12 Noon Fri 86 91 E 13 19 6770 6770 4170 White 20
1 PM Fri 88 92 ESE 13 20 6984 6984 4384 White 21
2 PM Fri 89 92 ESE 13 20 6984 6984 4384 White 21
3 PM Fri 89 91 ESE 13 19 6770 6770 4170 White 20
4 PM Fri 88 89 ESE 12 18 6338 6338 3738 White 18
5 PM Fri 86 86 ESE 12 17 5685 5685 3085 White 15
6 PM Fri 84 84 ESE 12 16 5247 4176 1576 White 13
7 PM Fri 83 83 ESE 13 13 5027 4054 1454 White 12
8 PM Fri 81 81 ESE 13 14 4183 3812 1212 Blue 10
9 PM Fri 80 80 ESE 13 14 4061 3273 673 Blue 9
10 PM Fri 79 79 E 12 12 3939 3185 585 Blue 8

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com