Detailed Predictions for: South Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 2600
LZ Altitude (f): 1400
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

26 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sun 63 63 S 10 0 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 63 64 S 13 0 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 65 67 S 15 2506 2600 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sun 66 70 S 16 2640 2600 0 Blue 4
10 AM Sun 68 74 S 17 3634 2684 84 Blue 8
11 AM Sun 70 78 S 18 7288 3878 1278 Blue 12
12 Noon Sun 72 81 S 18 8336 7191 4591 Blue 15
1 PM Sun 74 83 S 17 8769 8237 5637 Blue 17
2 PM Sun 76 84 SW 17 8985 8320 5720 Blue 18
3 PM Sun 77 83 SW 16 8769 8237 5637 Blue 17
4 PM Sun 78 82 SW 16 8469 7780 5180 Blue 16
5 PM Sun 78 80 SW 16 8253 5414 2814 Blue 14
6 PM Sun 77 77 SW 17 5682 3623 1023 Blue 11
7 PM Sun 76 76 SW 17 4147 3289 689 Blue 10
8 PM Sun 74 74 SW 18 3634 2684 84 Blue 8
9 PM Sun 72 72 SW 18 2729 2600 0 Blue 6
10 PM Sun 71 71 SW 18 2684 2600 0 Blue 5
11 PM Sun 69 69 SW 18 2595 2600 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Mon 68 68 SW 18 2551 2600 0 Blue 2
1 AM Mon 68 68 SW 16 2551 2600 0 Blue 2
2 AM Mon 66 66 SW 14 0 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 65 65 SW 13 0 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 64 64 SW 13 0 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 62 62 SW 14 0 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 61 61 SW 14 0 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 61 61 SW 14 0 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 61 62 SW 13 0 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 60 63 SW 12 0 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 62 67 SW 12 2506 2600 0 Blue 1
11 AM Mon 64 71 SW 13 2684 2600 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Mon 65 73 SW 13 3319 2639 39 Blue 7
1 PM Mon 67 75 SW 14 3891 2728 128 Blue 9
2 PM Mon 68 76 W 14 4147 3289 689 Blue 10
3 PM Mon 70 76 W 14 4147 3289 689 Blue 10
4 PM Mon 71 75 W 14 3891 2728 128 Blue 9
5 PM Mon 71 73 W 14 3319 2639 39 Blue 7
6 PM Mon 71 71 W 13 2684 2600 0 Blue 5
7 PM Mon 70 70 W 12 2640 2600 0 Blue 4
8 PM Mon 69 69 W 9 2595 2600 0 Blue 3
9 PM Mon 67 67 W 8 2506 2600 0 Blue 1
10 PM Mon 66 66 W 8 0 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 65 65 W 9 0 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 64 64 W 9 0 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 63 63 W 9 0 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 63 63 W 8 0 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 62 62 W 7 0 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 61 61 W 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 59 59 W 3 0 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 59 59 W 2 0 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 60 61 W 1 0 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 62 64 W 1 0 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 64 68 W 1 2551 2600 0 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 67 73 W 1 3319 2639 39 Blue 7
11 AM Tue 69 77 SW 2 5682 3623 1023 Blue 11
12 Noon Tue 72 81 SW 3 8336 7191 4591 Blue 15
1 PM Tue 74 83 SW 3 8769 8237 5637 Blue 17
2 PM Tue 77 85 W 5 9279 8409 5809 Blue 19
3 PM Tue 78 84 W 5 8985 8320 5720 Blue 18
4 PM Tue 79 83 W 6 8769 8237 5637 Blue 17
5 PM Tue 79 81 W 7 8336 7191 4591 Blue 15
6 PM Tue 78 78 W 7 7288 3878 1278 Blue 12
7 PM Tue 77 77 W 8 5682 3623 1023 Blue 11
8 PM Tue 75 75 W 8 3891 2728 128 Blue 9
9 PM Tue 74 74 W 8 3634 2684 84 Blue 8
10 PM Tue 73 73 W 8 3319 2639 39 Blue 7
11 PM Tue 72 72 W 8 2729 2600 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Wed 71 71 W 8 2684 2600 0 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 70 70 W 7 2640 2600 0 Blue 4
2 AM Wed 69 69 W 7 2595 2600 0 Blue 3
3 AM Wed 68 68 W 6 2551 2600 0 Blue 2
4 AM Wed 66 66 W 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 65 65 W 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 64 64 W 5 0 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 65 66 W 5 0 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 67 69 W 5 2595 2600 0 Blue 3
9 AM Wed 69 73 W 5 3319 2639 39 Blue 7
10 AM Wed 72 78 SW 5 7288 3878 1278 Blue 12
11 AM Wed 75 83 SW 5 8769 8237 5637 Blue 17
12 Noon Wed 78 87 SW 5 9768 8948 6348 Blue 21
1 PM Wed 81 90 SW 5 12734 9726 7126 Blue 24
2 PM Wed 83 91 SW 6 13091 11215 8615 Blue 25
3 PM Wed 85 91 W 6 13091 11215 8615 Blue 25
4 PM Wed 86 90 W 7 12734 9726 7126 Blue 24
5 PM Wed 85 87 W 7 9768 8948 6348 Blue 21
6 PM Wed 84 84 W 8 8985 8320 5720 Blue 18
7 PM Wed 83 83 W 8 8769 8237 5637 Blue 17
8 PM Wed 81 81 W 8 8336 7191 4591 Blue 15
9 PM Wed 79 79 W 9 7884 4132 1532 Blue 13
10 PM Wed 78 78 W 9 7288 3878 1278 Blue 12
11 PM Wed 77 77 W 9 5682 3623 1023 Blue 11
12 Midnight Thu 76 76 W 9 4147 3289 689 Blue 10
1 AM Thu 75 75 W 8 3891 2728 128 Blue 9
2 AM Thu 73 73 W 8 3319 2639 39 Blue 7
3 AM Thu 72 72 W 7 2729 2600 0 Blue 6
4 AM Thu 70 70 W 6 2640 2600 0 Blue 4
5 AM Thu 69 69 W 5 2595 2600 0 Blue 3
6 AM Thu 68 68 W 3 2551 2600 0 Blue 2
7 AM Thu 69 70 W 2 2640 2600 0 Blue 4
8 AM Thu 71 73 W 2 3319 2639 39 Blue 7
9 AM Thu 73 77 SW 2 5682 3623 1023 Blue 11
10 AM Thu 76 82 SW 2 8469 7780 5180 Blue 16
11 AM Thu 79 87 SW 2 9768 8948 6348 Blue 21
12 Noon Thu 82 91 SW 2 13091 11215 8615 Blue 25
1 PM Thu 85 94 SW 2 15550 12963 10363 Blue 28
2 PM Thu 87 95 SW 3 16565 13312 10712 Blue 29
3 PM Thu 88 94 SW 3 15550 12963 10363 Blue 28
4 PM Thu 89 93 W 5 15087 12610 10010 Blue 27
5 PM Thu 89 91 W 6 13091 11215 8615 Blue 25
6 PM Thu 88 88 W 6 12006 9193 6593 Blue 22
7 PM Thu 86 86 W 7 9596 8706 6106 Blue 20
8 PM Thu 84 84 W 8 8985 8320 5720 Blue 18
9 PM Thu 82 82 W 9 8469 7780 5180 Blue 16
10 PM Thu 81 81 W 10 8336 7191 4591 Blue 15
11 PM Thu 79 79 W 10 7884 4132 1532 Blue 13
12 Midnight Fri 78 78 W 10 7288 3878 1278 Blue 12
1 AM Fri 77 77 W 10 5682 3623 1023 Blue 11
2 AM Fri 75 75 W 9 3891 2728 128 Blue 9
3 AM Fri 74 74 W 7 3634 2684 84 Blue 8
4 AM Fri 72 72 W 6 2729 2600 0 Blue 6
5 AM Fri 70 70 W 5 2640 2600 0 Blue 4
6 AM Fri 69 69 SW 3 2595 2600 0 Blue 3
7 AM Fri 70 71 SW 2 2684 2600 0 Blue 5
8 AM Fri 71 73 SW 2 3319 2639 39 Blue 7
9 AM Fri 74 78 SW 2 7288 3878 1278 Blue 12
10 AM Fri 77 83 SW 3 8769 8237 5637 Blue 17
11 AM Fri 80 88 SW 3 12006 9193 6593 Blue 22
12 Noon Fri 83 92 SW 5 13587 12251 9651 Blue 26
1 PM Fri 86 95 SW 5 16565 13312 10712 Blue 29
2 PM Fri 88 96 SW 6 16801 14392 11792 Blue 30
3 PM Fri 90 96 SW 6 16801 14392 11792 Blue 30
4 PM Fri 91 95 SW 7 16565 13312 10712 Blue 29
5 PM Fri 90 92 W 7 13587 12251 9651 Blue 26
6 PM Fri 89 89 W 8 12373 9555 6955 Blue 23
7 PM Fri 87 87 W 8 9768 8948 6348 Blue 21
8 PM Fri 85 85 W 9 9279 8409 5809 Blue 19
9 PM Fri 83 83 W 9 8769 8237 5637 Blue 17
10 PM Fri 81 81 W 9 8336 7191 4591 Blue 15
11 PM Fri 80 80 W 9 8253 5414 2814 Blue 14
12 Midnight Sat 78 78 W 9 7288 3878 1278 Blue 12
1 AM Sat 76 76 SW 8 4147 3289 689 Blue 10
2 AM Sat 75 75 SW 7 3891 2728 128 Blue 9
3 AM Sat 73 73 S 6 3319 2639 39 Blue 7
4 AM Sat 71 71 S 5 2684 2600 0 Blue 5
5 AM Sat 70 70 S 5 2640 2600 0 Blue 4

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com