Detailed Predictions for: South Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.330881748, -112.061150641, 2600
LZ Altitude (f): 1400
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Fri 65 65 E 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 64 64 ENE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 64 64 ENE 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 63 63 ENE 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 61 61 ENE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 60 60 ENE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 58 58 ENE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 57 57 ENE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 56 56 ENE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 55 55 ENE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 57 57 NE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 59 59 NE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 62 62 NE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 64 65 SE 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 66 68 SW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 68 70 NW 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 67 68 WNW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 66 66 WNW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 64 64 WNW 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 61 61 W 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 57 57 WSW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 54 54 WSW 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 59 59 SW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 64 64 S 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 69 69 SSE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 67 67 SSE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 66 66 SSE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 65 65 SSE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 63 63 SE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 62 62 SE 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 61 61 ESE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 60 60 ESE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 60 60 ESE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 60 61 ESE 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 63 66 ESE 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 65 69 ESE 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 68 73 SE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 70 75 SSE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 72 76 SSW 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 75 78 WSW 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 74 75 W 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 74 74 W 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 74 74 WNW 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 74 74 WNW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 74 74 WNW 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 74 74 W 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 72 72 W 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 70 70 WSW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 68 68 WSW 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 66 66 WSW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 64 64 W 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 63 63 W 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 62 62 W 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 61 61 WNW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 60 60 WNW 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 59 59 WNW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 59 59 WNW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 58 59 WNW 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 59 62 WNW 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 59 63 W 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 60 65 W 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 61 66 W 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 62 66 WSW 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 63 66 WSW 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 60 61 S 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 58 58 ESE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 55 55 NNE 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 52 52 NE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 49 49 ENE 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 46 46 ENE 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 49 49 NE 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 52 52 NE 10 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com