Detailed Predictions for: South Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 2600
LZ Altitude (f): 1400
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

12Z 23 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sat 63 63 SW 3 0 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 62 62 SW 2 0 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 66 67 SW 2 0 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 69 71 SW 2 0 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 70 74 SW 2 4866 2612 12 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 73 78 SW 2 7603 5790 3190 Blue 7
12 Noon Sat 77 83 SW 3 10200 9057 6457 Blue 12
1 PM Sat 79 85 SW 5 10739 9811 7211 Blue 14
2 PM Sat 81 86 SW 6 10943 10148 7548 Blue 15
3 PM Sat 83 87 W 8 11092 10348 7748 Blue 16
4 PM Sat 81 83 W 9 10200 9057 6457 Blue 12
5 PM Sat 79 79 W 10 8393 6714 4114 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 81 81 W 12 9526 7532 4932 Blue 10
7 PM Sat 78 78 W 12 7603 5790 3190 Blue 7
8 PM Sat 76 76 W 12 6770 4276 1676 Blue 5
9 PM Sat 74 74 W 10 4866 2612 12 Blue 3
10 PM Sat 72 72 W 10 3753 2612 12 Blue 1
11 PM Sat 71 71 NW 9 0 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 68 68 NW 8 0 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 67 67 NW 8 0 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 66 66 NW 7 0 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 65 65 N 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 63 63 N 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 62 62 N 5 0 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 61 61 N 5 0 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 61 61 N 3 0 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 66 67 N 3 0 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 68 70 NW 2 0 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 70 74 NW 2 4866 2612 12 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 74 79 W 2 8393 6714 4114 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 77 83 W 3 10200 9057 6457 Blue 12
1 PM Sun 80 86 W 3 10943 10148 7548 Blue 15
2 PM Sun 82 87 W 5 11092 10348 7748 Blue 16
3 PM Sun 84 88 W 6 11242 10606 8006 Blue 16
4 PM Sun 82 84 W 7 10401 9437 6837 Blue 13
5 PM Sun 80 80 W 8 9144 7112 4512 Blue 9
6 PM Sun 82 82 W 9 9904 8203 5603 Blue 11
7 PM Sun 79 79 W 9 8393 6714 4114 Blue 8
8 PM Sun 76 76 W 9 6770 4276 1676 Blue 5
9 PM Sun 74 74 W 9 4866 2612 12 Blue 3
10 PM Sun 73 73 NW 9 4310 2612 12 Blue 2
11 PM Sun 71 71 NW 9 0 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 69 69 NW 8 0 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 67 67 NW 8 0 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 66 66 NW 7 0 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 65 65 N 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 63 63 N 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 62 62 NE 5 0 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 61 61 NE 3 0 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 61 61 NE 3 0 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 66 67 NE 3 0 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 69 71 NE 2 0 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 71 75 E 2 5899 3728 1128 Blue 4
11 AM Mon 75 80 E 2 9144 7112 4512 Blue 9
12 Noon Mon 79 85 E 2 10739 9811 7211 Blue 14
1 PM Mon 81 87 NE 2 11092 10348 7748 Blue 16
2 PM Mon 84 89 NE 3 11542 10900 8300 Blue 17
3 PM Mon 86 89 N 3 11542 10900 8300 Blue 17
4 PM Mon 84 86 N 5 10943 10148 7548 Blue 15
5 PM Mon 82 82 NW 5 9904 8203 5603 Blue 11
6 PM Mon 84 84 W 5 10401 9437 6837 Blue 13
7 PM Mon 81 81 NW 5 9526 7532 4932 Blue 10
8 PM Mon 78 78 NW 5 7603 5790 3190 Blue 7
9 PM Mon 76 76 NW 5 6770 4276 1676 Blue 5
10 PM Mon 75 75 NW 5 5899 3728 1128 Blue 4
11 PM Mon 73 73 NW 5 4310 2612 12 Blue 2
12 Midnight Tue 71 71 NW 5 0 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 69 69 NW 5 0 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 68 68 N 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 67 67 N 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 65 65 NE 7 0 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 64 64 NE 7 0 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 63 63 NE 8 0 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 63 63 NE 7 0 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 68 69 NE 7 0 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 71 73 NE 7 4310 2612 12 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 73 77 N 7 7179 4810 2210 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 77 82 N 6 9904 8203 5603 Blue 11
12 Noon Tue 82 88 N 6 11242 10606 8006 Blue 16
1 PM Tue 84 90 N 6 11914 11049 8449 Blue 18
2 PM Tue 87 92 NW 6 12656 11428 8828 Blue 20
3 PM Tue 89 93 NW 6 13023 11797 9197 Blue 21
4 PM Tue 86 88 NW 5 11242 10606 8006 Blue 16
5 PM Tue 85 85 W 5 10739 9811 7211 Blue 14
6 PM Tue 87 87 W 5 11092 10348 7748 Blue 16
7 PM Tue 84 84 W 5 10401 9437 6837 Blue 13
8 PM Tue 81 81 NW 5 9526 7532 4932 Blue 10
9 PM Tue 79 79 NW 6 8393 6714 4114 Blue 8
10 PM Tue 77 77 NW 6 7179 4810 2210 Blue 6
11 PM Tue 75 75 N 6 5899 3728 1128 Blue 4
12 Midnight Wed 72 72 N 6 3753 2612 12 Blue 1
1 AM Wed 70 70 N 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 69 69 N 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 68 68 NE 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 66 66 NE 7 0 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 65 65 E 7 0 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 64 64 E 7 0 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 64 64 E 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 70 71 NE 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 73 75 NE 6 5899 3728 1128 Blue 4
10 AM Wed 75 79 NE 5 8393 6714 4114 Blue 8
11 AM Wed 79 84 N 5 10401 9437 6837 Blue 13
12 Noon Wed 84 90 N 3 11914 11049 8449 Blue 18
1 PM Wed 87 93 N 3 13023 11797 9197 Blue 21
2 PM Wed 90 95 N 3 13598 12529 9929 White 23
3 PM Wed 92 95 N 2 13598 12529 9929 White 23
4 PM Wed 90 92 NW 2 12656 11428 8828 Blue 20
5 PM Wed 88 88 NW 2 11242 10606 8006 Blue 16
6 PM Wed 90 90 NW 2 11914 11049 8449 Blue 18
7 PM Wed 87 87 NW 2 11092 10348 7748 Blue 16
8 PM Wed 84 84 NW 3 10401 9437 6837 Blue 13
9 PM Wed 82 82 N 5 9904 8203 5603 Blue 11
10 PM Wed 81 81 N 5 9526 7532 4932 Blue 10
11 PM Wed 79 79 N 6 8393 6714 4114 Blue 8
12 Midnight Thu 77 77 N 7 7179 4810 2210 Blue 6
1 AM Thu 75 75 N 8 5899 3728 1128 Blue 4
2 AM Thu 74 74 NE 9 4866 2612 12 Blue 3
3 AM Thu 73 73 NE 9 4310 2612 12 Blue 2
4 AM Thu 71 71 NE 10 0 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 70 70 E 10 0 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 69 69 E 12 0 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 69 69 E 10 0 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 74 74 E 10 4866 2612 12 Blue 3
9 AM Thu 76 78 E 9 7603 5790 3190 Blue 7
10 AM Thu 78 81 E 9 9526 7532 4932 Blue 10
11 AM Thu 82 87 SE 8 11092 10348 7748 Blue 16
12 Noon Thu 86 92 SE 7 12656 11428 8828 Blue 20
1 PM Thu 89 94 SE 6 13391 12164 9564 White 22
2 PM Thu 91 96 SE 6 13798 12890 10290 White 24
3 PM Thu 93 96 S 5 13798 12890 10290 White 24
4 PM Thu 91 93 S 3 13023 11797 9197 Blue 21
5 PM Thu 89 89 S 3 11542 10900 8300 Blue 17
6 PM Thu 91 91 S 3 12287 11198 8598 Blue 19
7 PM Thu 88 88 S 3 11242 10606 8006 Blue 16
8 PM Thu 86 86 S 5 10943 10148 7548 Blue 15
9 PM Thu 84 84 S 5 10401 9437 6837 Blue 13
10 PM Thu 82 82 S 6 9904 8203 5603 Blue 11
11 PM Thu 81 81 SE 7 9526 7532 4932 Blue 10
12 Midnight Fri 78 78 SE 8 7603 5790 3190 Blue 7
1 AM Fri 77 77 SE 9 7179 4810 2210 Blue 6
2 AM Fri 76 76 SE 10 6770 4276 1676 Blue 5
3 AM Fri 75 75 E 12 5899 3728 1128 Blue 4
4 AM Fri 73 73 E 13 4310 2612 12 Blue 2
5 AM Fri 72 72 E 13 3753 2612 12 Blue 1

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com