Detailed Predictions for: South Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 2600
LZ Altitude (f): 1400
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 46 46 E 14 0 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 45 45 E 14 0 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 44 44 E 14 0 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 51 51 E 14 4619 2600 0 Blue 2
9 AM Tue 52 53 E 14 6503 3377 777 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 54 56 E 14 7374 6386 3786 Blue 7
11 AM Tue 56 59 E 13 7505 7367 4767 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 58 61 E 12 7698 7454 4854 Blue 12
1 PM Tue 60 63 E 9 8253 7541 4941 Blue 14
2 PM Tue 61 64 E 8 8587 7673 5073 Blue 15
3 PM Tue 60 61 E 7 7698 7454 4854 Blue 12
4 PM Tue 59 59 E 6 7505 7367 4767 Blue 10
5 PM Tue 58 58 E 5 7462 7248 4648 Blue 9
6 PM Tue 55 55 E 5 7283 5526 2926 Blue 6
7 PM Tue 53 53 E 6 6503 3377 777 Blue 4
8 PM Tue 52 52 E 8 5626 2600 0 Blue 3
9 PM Tue 51 51 E 9 4619 2600 0 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 50 50 E 10 3424 2600 0 Blue 1
11 PM Tue 49 49 E 12 2531 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 50 50 E 12 3424 2600 0 Blue 1
1 AM Wed 50 50 E 12 3424 2600 0 Blue 1
2 AM Wed 50 50 E 12 3424 2600 0 Blue 1
3 AM Wed 48 48 E 12 0 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 47 47 E 10 0 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 47 47 E 10 0 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 46 46 E 10 0 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 45 45 E 10 0 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 53 53 E 10 6503 3377 777 Blue 4
9 AM Wed 55 55 E 10 7283 5526 2926 Blue 6
10 AM Wed 57 58 E 10 7462 7248 4648 Blue 9
11 AM Wed 59 61 E 10 7698 7454 4854 Blue 12
12 Noon Wed 62 64 E 9 8587 7673 5073 Blue 15
1 PM Wed 65 67 E 9 8720 8516 5916 Blue 18
2 PM Wed 66 67 NE 8 8720 8516 5916 Blue 18
3 PM Wed 64 64 NE 8 8587 7673 5073 Blue 15
4 PM Wed 64 64 NE 7 8587 7673 5073 Blue 15
5 PM Wed 63 63 NE 7 8253 7541 4941 Blue 14
6 PM Wed 59 59 NE 7 7505 7367 4767 Blue 10
7 PM Wed 57 57 NE 8 7418 7036 4436 Blue 8
8 PM Wed 55 55 NE 9 7283 5526 2926 Blue 6
9 PM Wed 54 54 E 10 7070 4536 1936 Blue 5
10 PM Wed 53 53 E 10 6503 3377 777 Blue 4
11 PM Wed 52 52 E 12 5626 2600 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Thu 53 53 E 12 6503 3377 777 Blue 4
1 AM Thu 53 53 E 12 6503 3377 777 Blue 4
2 AM Thu 52 52 E 12 5626 2600 0 Blue 3
3 AM Thu 51 51 E 12 4619 2600 0 Blue 2
4 AM Thu 49 49 E 12 2531 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 49 49 E 12 2531 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 49 49 E 12 2531 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 47 47 E 12 0 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 55 55 E 10 7283 5526 2926 Blue 6
9 AM Thu 57 58 E 10 7462 7248 4648 Blue 9
10 AM Thu 59 61 E 10 7698 7454 4854 Blue 12
11 AM Thu 61 64 E 9 8587 7673 5073 Blue 15
12 Noon Thu 64 67 E 8 8720 8516 5916 Blue 18
1 PM Thu 67 70 NE 7 8837 8712 6112 Blue 21
2 PM Thu 68 70 NE 7 8837 8712 6112 Blue 21
3 PM Thu 66 67 N 6 8720 8516 5916 Blue 18
4 PM Thu 66 66 N 5 8681 8186 5586 Blue 17
5 PM Thu 65 65 N 5 8642 7852 5252 Blue 16
6 PM Thu 61 61 N 5 7698 7454 4854 Blue 12
7 PM Thu 59 59 N 5 7505 7367 4767 Blue 10
8 PM Thu 57 57 NE 6 7418 7036 4436 Blue 8
9 PM Thu 56 56 NE 6 7374 6386 3786 Blue 7
10 PM Thu 55 55 NE 7 7283 5526 2926 Blue 6
11 PM Thu 54 54 E 7 7070 4536 1936 Blue 5
12 Midnight Fri 55 55 E 7 7283 5526 2926 Blue 6
1 AM Fri 55 55 E 7 7283 5526 2926 Blue 6
2 AM Fri 54 54 E 7 7070 4536 1936 Blue 5
3 AM Fri 53 53 E 7 6503 3377 777 Blue 4
4 AM Fri 51 51 E 7 4619 2600 0 Blue 2
5 AM Fri 51 51 E 7 4619 2600 0 Blue 2
6 AM Fri 51 51 E 7 4619 2600 0 Blue 2
7 AM Fri 49 49 E 7 2531 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 57 57 E 7 7418 7036 4436 Blue 8
9 AM Fri 59 60 E 6 7562 7410 4810 Blue 11
10 AM Fri 61 62 E 6 7916 7497 4897 Blue 13
11 AM Fri 63 65 E 6 8642 7852 5252 Blue 16
12 Noon Fri 66 69 SE 6 8798 8673 6073 Blue 20
1 PM Fri 69 72 S 5 8946 8789 6189 Blue 23
2 PM Fri 70 72 S 5 8946 8789 6189 Blue 23
3 PM Fri 68 69 SW 3 8798 8673 6073 Blue 20
4 PM Fri 68 68 W 3 8759 8634 6034 Blue 19
5 PM Fri 66 66 W 3 8681 8186 5586 Blue 17
6 PM Fri 62 62 W 3 7916 7497 4897 Blue 13
7 PM Fri 60 60 NW 3 7562 7410 4810 Blue 11
8 PM Fri 59 59 NW 3 7505 7367 4767 Blue 10
9 PM Fri 57 57 NW 5 7418 7036 4436 Blue 8
10 PM Fri 57 57 N 5 7418 7036 4436 Blue 8
11 PM Fri 55 55 N 5 7283 5526 2926 Blue 6
12 Midnight Sat 56 56 N 5 7374 6386 3786 Blue 7
1 AM Sat 56 56 NE 5 7374 6386 3786 Blue 7
2 AM Sat 56 56 NE 5 7374 6386 3786 Blue 7
3 AM Sat 54 54 E 5 7070 4536 1936 Blue 5
4 AM Sat 52 52 E 5 5626 2600 0 Blue 3
5 AM Sat 52 52 E 5 5626 2600 0 Blue 3
6 AM Sat 52 52 E 5 5626 2600 0 Blue 3
7 AM Sat 50 50 E 5 3424 2600 0 Blue 1
8 AM Sat 58 58 E 5 7462 7248 4648 Blue 9
9 AM Sat 59 59 SE 5 7505 7367 4767 Blue 10
10 AM Sat 62 63 SE 5 8253 7541 4941 Blue 14
11 AM Sat 64 66 SE 5 8681 8186 5586 Blue 17
12 Noon Sat 66 68 SE 5 8759 8634 6034 Blue 19
1 PM Sat 69 71 S 5 8876 8751 6151 Blue 22
2 PM Sat 70 71 SW 5 8876 8751 6151 Blue 22
3 PM Sat 68 69 SW 3 8798 8673 6073 Blue 20
4 PM Sat 68 68 W 3 8759 8634 6034 Blue 19
5 PM Sat 66 66 W 3 8681 8186 5586 Blue 17
6 PM Sat 62 62 W 3 7916 7497 4897 Blue 13
7 PM Sat 60 60 NW 3 7562 7410 4810 Blue 11
8 PM Sat 59 59 N 3 7505 7367 4767 Blue 10
9 PM Sat 57 57 N 3 7418 7036 4436 Blue 8
10 PM Sat 57 57 N 3 7418 7036 4436 Blue 8
11 PM Sat 55 55 NE 3 7283 5526 2926 Blue 6
12 Midnight Sun 56 56 NE 3 7374 6386 3786 Blue 7
1 AM Sun 56 56 NE 3 7374 6386 3786 Blue 7
2 AM Sun 56 56 NE 3 7374 6386 3786 Blue 7
3 AM Sun 54 54 E 5 7070 4536 1936 Blue 5
4 AM Sun 52 52 E 5 5626 2600 0 Blue 3
5 AM Sun 52 52 E 5 5626 2600 0 Blue 3
6 AM Sun 52 52 E 5 5626 2600 0 Blue 3
7 AM Sun 50 50 E 5 3424 2600 0 Blue 1
8 AM Sun 58 58 E 6 7462 7248 4648 Blue 9
9 AM Sun 59 59 E 6 7505 7367 4767 Blue 10
10 AM Sun 62 63 E 6 8253 7541 4941 Blue 14
11 AM Sun 64 66 E 6 8681 8186 5586 Blue 17
12 Noon Sun 66 68 E 6 8759 8634 6034 Blue 19
1 PM Sun 69 71 E 6 8876 8751 6151 Blue 22
2 PM Sun 70 71 NE 6 8876 8751 6151 Blue 22
3 PM Sun 69 70 NE 5 8837 8712 6112 Blue 21
4 PM Sun 68 68 NE 5 8759 8634 6034 Blue 19
5 PM Sun 67 67 N 5 8720 8516 5916 Blue 18
6 PM Sun 63 63 N 5 8253 7541 4941 Blue 14
7 PM Sun 62 62 N 5 7916 7497 4897 Blue 13
8 PM Sun 60 60 NE 5 7562 7410 4810 Blue 11
9 PM Sun 59 59 NE 5 7505 7367 4767 Blue 10
10 PM Sun 59 59 NE 5 7505 7367 4767 Blue 10
11 PM Sun 57 57 NE 5 7418 7036 4436 Blue 8
12 Midnight Mon 58 58 NE 5 7462 7248 4648 Blue 9
1 AM Mon 58 58 NE 5 7462 7248 4648 Blue 9
2 AM Mon 58 58 NE 5 7462 7248 4648 Blue 9
3 AM Mon 56 56 NE 6 7374 6386 3786 Blue 7
4 AM Mon 55 55 NE 6 7283 5526 2926 Blue 6

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com