Detailed Predictions for: South Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 2600
LZ Altitude (f): 1400
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

17 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 51 51 E 10 2706 2600 0 Blue 6
6 AM Wed 50 50 E 10 2669 2600 0 Blue 5
7 AM Wed 50 50 E 10 2669 2600 0 Blue 5
8 AM Wed 51 51 E 10 2706 2600 0 Blue 6
9 AM Wed 53 53 E 9 2793 2669 69 Blue 8
10 AM Wed 56 57 E 9 3237 2848 248 Blue 12
11 AM Wed 60 62 E 9 4235 3628 1028 Blue 17
12 Noon Wed 62 64 E 8 4632 4025 1425 Blue 19
1 PM Wed 65 68 E 7 5375 4813 2213 Blue 23
2 PM Wed 66 68 E 5 5375 4813 2213 Blue 23
3 PM Wed 67 68 NE 3 5375 4813 2213 Blue 23
4 PM Wed 67 67 N 1 5203 4617 2017 Blue 22
5 PM Wed 66 66 NW 1 5027 4420 1820 Blue 21
6 PM Wed 65 65 N 1 4829 4223 1623 Blue 20
7 PM Wed 63 63 N 2 4434 3827 1227 Blue 18
8 PM Wed 61 61 N 5 4036 3429 829 Blue 16
9 PM Wed 59 59 NE 5 3637 3030 430 Blue 14
10 PM Wed 58 58 NE 5 3437 2904 304 Blue 13
11 PM Wed 57 57 E 6 3237 2848 248 Blue 12
12 Midnight Thu 57 57 E 6 3237 2848 248 Blue 12
1 AM Thu 56 56 E 7 3036 2792 192 Blue 11
2 AM Thu 56 56 E 8 3036 2792 192 Blue 11
3 AM Thu 55 55 E 7 2905 2743 143 Blue 10
4 AM Thu 54 54 E 7 2849 2706 106 Blue 9
5 AM Thu 53 53 E 7 2793 2669 69 Blue 8
6 AM Thu 52 52 E 7 2743 2632 32 Blue 7
7 AM Thu 52 52 E 7 2743 2632 32 Blue 7
8 AM Thu 53 53 E 6 2793 2669 69 Blue 8
9 AM Thu 56 56 E 7 3036 2792 192 Blue 11
10 AM Thu 60 61 E 7 4036 3429 829 Blue 16
11 AM Thu 63 65 E 7 4829 4223 1623 Blue 20
12 Noon Thu 66 68 E 6 5375 4813 2213 Blue 23
1 PM Thu 68 70 E 6 5718 5187 2587 Blue 25
2 PM Thu 69 71 E 5 5889 5358 2758 Blue 26
3 PM Thu 69 70 E 3 5718 5187 2587 Blue 25
4 PM Thu 69 69 E 2 5547 5009 2409 Blue 24
5 PM Thu 68 68 NE 1 5375 4813 2213 Blue 23
6 PM Thu 66 66 E 2 5027 4420 1820 Blue 21
7 PM Thu 64 64 E 2 4632 4025 1425 Blue 19
8 PM Thu 62 62 E 3 4235 3628 1028 Blue 17
9 PM Thu 60 60 E 3 3837 3230 630 Blue 15
10 PM Thu 59 59 E 3 3637 3030 430 Blue 14
11 PM Thu 58 58 E 3 3437 2904 304 Blue 13
12 Midnight Fri 58 58 SE 5 3437 2904 304 Blue 13
1 AM Fri 58 58 SE 5 3437 2904 304 Blue 13
2 AM Fri 58 58 SE 6 3437 2904 304 Blue 13
3 AM Fri 57 57 SE 7 3237 2848 248 Blue 12
4 AM Fri 57 57 SE 8 3237 2848 248 Blue 12
5 AM Fri 56 56 SE 9 3036 2792 192 Blue 11
6 AM Fri 55 55 SE 9 2905 2743 143 Blue 10
7 AM Fri 55 55 SE 10 2905 2743 143 Blue 10
8 AM Fri 56 56 SE 10 3036 2792 192 Blue 11
9 AM Fri 59 59 SE 10 3637 3030 430 Blue 14
10 AM Fri 62 63 SE 9 4434 3827 1227 Blue 18
11 AM Fri 66 67 SE 9 5203 4617 2017 Blue 22
12 Noon Fri 69 71 SE 8 5889 5358 2758 Blue 26
1 PM Fri 71 73 S 8 6230 5699 3099 Blue 28
2 PM Fri 72 73 S 7 6230 5699 3099 Blue 28
3 PM Fri 72 73 SW 7 6230 5699 3099 Blue 28
4 PM Fri 72 72 SW 6 6060 5528 2928 Blue 27
5 PM Fri 71 71 W 6 5889 5358 2758 Blue 26
6 PM Fri 69 69 SW 6 5547 5009 2409 Blue 24
7 PM Fri 67 67 SW 7 5203 4617 2017 Blue 22
8 PM Fri 65 65 SW 8 4829 4223 1623 Blue 20
9 PM Fri 63 63 SW 8 4434 3827 1227 Blue 18
10 PM Fri 62 62 SW 9 4235 3628 1028 Blue 17
11 PM Fri 61 61 SW 10 4036 3429 829 Blue 16
12 Midnight Sat 60 60 SW 12 3837 3230 630 Blue 15
1 AM Sat 60 60 SW 13 3837 3230 630 Blue 15
2 AM Sat 59 59 SW 14 3637 3030 430 Blue 14
3 AM Sat 58 58 SW 15 3437 2904 304 Blue 13
4 AM Sat 58 58 SW 16 3437 2904 304 Blue 13
5 AM Sat 57 57 SW 16 3237 2848 248 Blue 12
6 AM Sat 56 56 SW 16 3036 2792 192 Blue 11
7 AM Sat 55 55 SW 15 2905 2743 143 Blue 10
8 AM Sat 55 55 SW 14 2905 2743 143 Blue 10
9 AM Sat 55 55 W 13 2905 2743 143 Blue 10
10 AM Sat 55 55 W 13 2905 2743 143 Blue 10
11 AM Sat 55 56 W 12 3036 2792 192 Blue 11
12 Noon Sat 55 57 W 13 3237 2848 248 Blue 12
1 PM Sat 55 57 W 14 3237 2848 248 Blue 12
2 PM Sat 55 56 W 15 3036 2792 192 Blue 11
3 PM Sat 55 56 W 16 3036 2792 192 Blue 11
4 PM Sat 53 53 W 16 2793 2669 69 Blue 8
5 PM Sat 52 52 W 17 2743 2632 32 Blue 7
6 PM Sat 51 51 W 16 2706 2600 0 Blue 6
7 PM Sat 51 51 W 16 2706 2600 0 Blue 6
8 PM Sat 50 50 W 15 2669 2600 0 Blue 5
9 PM Sat 48 48 W 14 2596 2600 0 Blue 3
10 PM Sat 45 45 W 13 2485 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 44 44 W 12 0 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 43 43 NW 10 0 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 42 42 NW 10 0 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 42 42 NW 9 0 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 42 42 NW 9 0 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 41 41 NW 8 0 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 40 40 NW 7 0 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 39 39 N 7 0 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 38 38 N 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 38 38 N 6 0 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 40 40 N 5 0 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 44 45 N 5 2485 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 48 50 N 5 2669 2600 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Sun 52 55 N 5 2905 2743 143 Blue 10
1 PM Sun 55 58 NW 5 3437 2904 304 Blue 13
2 PM Sun 57 59 NW 5 3637 3030 430 Blue 14
3 PM Sun 57 58 NW 5 3437 2904 304 Blue 13
4 PM Sun 56 56 W 6 3036 2792 192 Blue 11
5 PM Sun 55 55 W 6 2905 2743 143 Blue 10
6 PM Sun 54 54 W 6 2849 2706 106 Blue 9
7 PM Sun 53 53 NW 5 2793 2669 69 Blue 8
8 PM Sun 52 52 NW 5 2743 2632 32 Blue 7
9 PM Sun 51 51 N 3 2706 2600 0 Blue 6
10 PM Sun 50 50 N 3 2669 2600 0 Blue 5
11 PM Sun 49 49 N 3 2632 2600 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Mon 48 48 N 3 2596 2600 0 Blue 3
1 AM Mon 47 47 NE 5 2559 2600 0 Blue 2
2 AM Mon 46 46 NE 6 2522 2600 0 Blue 1
3 AM Mon 47 47 NE 6 2559 2600 0 Blue 2
4 AM Mon 47 47 NE 7 2559 2600 0 Blue 2
5 AM Mon 47 47 E 7 2559 2600 0 Blue 2
6 AM Mon 46 46 E 7 2522 2600 0 Blue 1
7 AM Mon 45 45 E 7 2485 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 45 45 E 6 2485 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 47 47 E 6 2559 2600 0 Blue 2
10 AM Mon 51 52 E 5 2743 2632 32 Blue 7
11 AM Mon 54 55 E 5 2905 2743 143 Blue 10
12 Noon Mon 57 59 NE 5 3637 3030 430 Blue 14
1 PM Mon 59 61 NE 5 4036 3429 829 Blue 16
2 PM Mon 60 62 N 6 4235 3628 1028 Blue 17
3 PM Mon 60 61 NW 6 4036 3429 829 Blue 16
4 PM Mon 60 60 NW 7 3837 3230 630 Blue 15
5 PM Mon 59 59 W 7 3637 3030 430 Blue 14
6 PM Mon 57 57 NW 7 3237 2848 248 Blue 12
7 PM Mon 56 56 NW 6 3036 2792 192 Blue 11
8 PM Mon 54 54 NW 6 2849 2706 106 Blue 9
9 PM Mon 53 53 NW 5 2793 2669 69 Blue 8
10 PM Mon 53 53 N 5 2793 2669 69 Blue 8
11 PM Mon 52 52 N 5 2743 2632 32 Blue 7
12 Midnight Tue 51 51 N 3 2706 2600 0 Blue 6
1 AM Tue 50 50 N 3 2669 2600 0 Blue 5
2 AM Tue 49 49 N 3 2632 2600 0 Blue 4
3 AM Tue 49 49 N 3 2632 2600 0 Blue 4
4 AM Tue 50 50 NE 5 2669 2600 0 Blue 5

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com