Detailed Predictions for: South Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 2600
LZ Altitude (f): 1400
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

15 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Mon 89 89 NE 3 3503 2953 353 Blue 7
7 AM Mon 89 89 E 3 3503 2953 353 Blue 7
8 AM Mon 91 93 E 2 4187 3779 1179 Blue 11
9 AM Mon 91 95 E 3 4381 4096 1496 Blue 13
10 AM Mon 94 100 E 5 7605 4971 2371 Blue 18
11 AM Mon 97 104 W 6 10547 7878 5278 Blue 22
12 Noon Mon 100 108 W 8 11788 10853 8253 White 26
1 PM Mon 103 111 W 9 12395 12395 9795 White 29
2 PM Mon 105 112 W 10 12595 12595 9995 White 30
3 PM Mon 106 112 W 12 12595 12595 9995 White 30
4 PM Mon 106 110 W 13 12192 12192 9592 White 28
5 PM Mon 106 108 W 14 11788 10853 8253 White 26
6 PM Mon 106 106 W 14 11383 9388 6788 White 24
7 PM Mon 106 106 W 14 11383 9388 6788 White 24
8 PM Mon 103 103 W 12 9618 7550 4950 Blue 21
9 PM Mon 101 101 W 9 7936 6218 3618 Blue 19
10 PM Mon 100 100 W 9 7605 4971 2371 Blue 18
11 PM Mon 99 99 W 10 7270 4644 2044 Blue 17
12 Midnight Tue 99 99 W 10 7270 4644 2044 Blue 17
1 AM Tue 98 98 W 10 6368 4362 1762 Blue 16
2 AM Tue 96 96 W 9 4665 4182 1582 Blue 14
3 AM Tue 95 95 W 8 4381 4096 1496 Blue 13
4 AM Tue 93 93 W 7 4187 3779 1179 Blue 11
5 AM Tue 92 92 W 6 4101 3492 892 Blue 10
6 AM Tue 91 91 E 5 4015 3203 603 Blue 9
7 AM Tue 91 91 E 5 4015 3203 603 Blue 9
8 AM Tue 92 94 E 3 4273 4010 1410 Blue 12
9 AM Tue 93 97 SE 3 5043 4268 1668 Blue 15
10 AM Tue 96 102 SE 5 8545 7218 4618 Blue 20
11 AM Tue 99 107 SW 6 11585 10334 7734 White 25
12 Noon Tue 102 111 SW 7 12395 12395 9795 White 29
1 PM Tue 105 114 SW 9 12998 12998 10398 White 32
2 PM Tue 107 115 W 13 13199 13199 10599 White 33
3 PM Tue 108 114 W 15 12998 12998 10398 White 32
4 PM Tue 108 112 W 16 12595 12595 9995 White 30
5 PM Tue 107 109 W 17 11990 11990 9390 White 27
6 PM Tue 106 106 W 17 11383 9388 6788 White 24
7 PM Tue 105 105 W 16 10967 8322 5722 Blue 23
8 PM Tue 103 103 W 15 9618 7550 4950 Blue 21
9 PM Tue 101 101 W 14 7936 6218 3618 Blue 19
10 PM Tue 100 100 W 14 7605 4971 2371 Blue 18
11 PM Tue 98 98 W 13 6368 4362 1762 Blue 16
12 Midnight Wed 97 97 SW 13 5043 4268 1668 Blue 15
1 AM Wed 96 96 W 12 4665 4182 1582 Blue 14
2 AM Wed 94 94 W 9 4273 4010 1410 Blue 12
3 AM Wed 93 93 W 8 4187 3779 1179 Blue 11
4 AM Wed 92 92 W 7 4101 3492 892 Blue 10
5 AM Wed 91 91 S 6 4015 3203 603 Blue 9
6 AM Wed 90 90 S 6 3793 3049 449 Blue 8
7 AM Wed 90 90 S 6 3793 3049 449 Blue 8
8 AM Wed 90 92 S 7 4101 3492 892 Blue 10
9 AM Wed 91 94 S 8 4273 4010 1410 Blue 12
10 AM Wed 93 98 S 9 6368 4362 1762 Blue 16
11 AM Wed 95 102 S 9 8545 7218 4618 Blue 20
12 Noon Wed 97 105 S 10 10967 8322 5722 Blue 23
1 PM Wed 99 107 S 12 11585 10334 7734 White 25
2 PM Wed 101 108 SW 14 11788 10853 8253 White 26
3 PM Wed 102 107 SW 15 11585 10334 7734 White 25
4 PM Wed 103 106 SW 16 11383 9388 6788 White 24
5 PM Wed 103 105 W 16 10967 8322 5722 Blue 23
6 PM Wed 102 102 W 16 8545 7218 4618 Blue 20
7 PM Wed 101 101 W 15 7936 6218 3618 Blue 19
8 PM Wed 99 99 W 14 7270 4644 2044 Blue 17
9 PM Wed 97 97 W 13 5043 4268 1668 Blue 15
10 PM Wed 96 96 W 12 4665 4182 1582 Blue 14
11 PM Wed 95 95 SW 12 4381 4096 1496 Blue 13
12 Midnight Thu 94 94 SW 10 4273 4010 1410 Blue 12
1 AM Thu 93 93 SW 10 4187 3779 1179 Blue 11
2 AM Thu 93 93 SW 9 4187 3779 1179 Blue 11
3 AM Thu 92 92 SW 9 4101 3492 892 Blue 10
4 AM Thu 91 91 S 8 4015 3203 603 Blue 9
5 AM Thu 89 89 S 7 3503 2953 353 Blue 7
6 AM Thu 88 88 S 6 3212 2858 258 Blue 6
7 AM Thu 87 87 S 5 3052 2762 162 Blue 5
8 AM Thu 87 88 SE 5 3212 2858 258 Blue 6
9 AM Thu 88 90 SE 5 3793 3049 449 Blue 8
10 AM Thu 90 93 SE 5 4187 3779 1179 Blue 11
11 AM Thu 92 96 S 5 4665 4182 1582 Blue 14
12 Noon Thu 94 99 SW 6 7270 4644 2044 Blue 17
1 PM Thu 96 101 SW 7 7936 6218 3618 Blue 19
2 PM Thu 98 103 W 9 9618 7550 4950 Blue 21
3 PM Thu 100 104 W 10 10547 7878 5278 Blue 22
4 PM Thu 101 104 W 12 10547 7878 5278 Blue 22
5 PM Thu 101 103 W 12 9618 7550 4950 Blue 21
6 PM Thu 100 100 W 12 7605 4971 2371 Blue 18
7 PM Thu 99 99 W 10 7270 4644 2044 Blue 17
8 PM Thu 98 98 W 9 6368 4362 1762 Blue 16
9 PM Thu 97 97 W 8 5043 4268 1668 Blue 15
10 PM Thu 96 96 W 8 4665 4182 1582 Blue 14
11 PM Thu 95 95 W 9 4381 4096 1496 Blue 13
12 Midnight Fri 94 94 SW 9 4273 4010 1410 Blue 12
1 AM Fri 93 93 SW 9 4187 3779 1179 Blue 11
2 AM Fri 92 92 SW 8 4101 3492 892 Blue 10
3 AM Fri 91 91 SW 7 4015 3203 603 Blue 9
4 AM Fri 90 90 SW 7 3793 3049 449 Blue 8
5 AM Fri 89 89 SE 6 3503 2953 353 Blue 7
6 AM Fri 88 88 E 6 3212 2858 258 Blue 6
7 AM Fri 88 88 E 6 3212 2858 258 Blue 6
8 AM Fri 88 89 SE 6 3503 2953 353 Blue 7
9 AM Fri 89 91 SE 6 4015 3203 603 Blue 9
10 AM Fri 90 93 S 6 4187 3779 1179 Blue 11
11 AM Fri 92 95 SW 6 4381 4096 1496 Blue 13
12 Noon Fri 94 98 SW 7 6368 4362 1762 Blue 16
1 PM Fri 96 100 SW 8 7605 4971 2371 Blue 18
2 PM Fri 98 101 W 9 7936 6218 3618 Blue 19
3 PM Fri 100 103 W 10 9618 7550 4950 Blue 21
4 PM Fri 101 103 W 12 9618 7550 4950 Blue 21
5 PM Fri 102 103 W 12 9618 7550 4950 Blue 21
6 PM Fri 102 102 W 12 8545 7218 4618 Blue 20
7 PM Fri 101 101 W 10 7936 6218 3618 Blue 19
8 PM Fri 100 100 W 9 7605 4971 2371 Blue 18
9 PM Fri 98 98 W 8 6368 4362 1762 Blue 16
10 PM Fri 97 97 W 8 5043 4268 1668 Blue 15
11 PM Fri 96 96 W 9 4665 4182 1582 Blue 14
12 Midnight Sat 95 95 SW 10 4381 4096 1496 Blue 13
1 AM Sat 94 94 SW 10 4273 4010 1410 Blue 12
2 AM Sat 93 93 W 10 4187 3779 1179 Blue 11
3 AM Sat 92 92 W 9 4101 3492 892 Blue 10
4 AM Sat 90 90 SW 8 3793 3049 449 Blue 8
5 AM Sat 89 89 S 7 3503 2953 353 Blue 7
6 AM Sat 88 88 S 6 3212 2858 258 Blue 6
7 AM Sat 88 88 S 6 3212 2858 258 Blue 6
8 AM Sat 88 89 S 6 3503 2953 353 Blue 7
9 AM Sat 89 92 S 6 4101 3492 892 Blue 10
10 AM Sat 91 95 S 7 4381 4096 1496 Blue 13
11 AM Sat 93 98 SW 8 6368 4362 1762 Blue 16
12 Noon Sat 95 101 SW 9 7936 6218 3618 Blue 19
1 PM Sat 97 103 SW 10 9618 7550 4950 Blue 21
2 PM Sat 99 104 SW 13 10547 7878 5278 Blue 22
3 PM Sat 100 104 W 14 10547 7878 5278 Blue 22
4 PM Sat 101 104 W 14 10547 7878 5278 Blue 22
5 PM Sat 101 102 W 14 8545 7218 4618 Blue 20
6 PM Sat 100 100 W 14 7605 4971 2371 Blue 18
7 PM Sat 99 99 W 13 7270 4644 2044 Blue 17
8 PM Sat 97 97 W 12 5043 4268 1668 Blue 15
9 PM Sat 96 96 W 12 4665 4182 1582 Blue 14
10 PM Sat 95 95 W 13 4381 4096 1496 Blue 13
11 PM Sat 94 94 W 14 4273 4010 1410 Blue 12
12 Midnight Sun 93 93 W 14 4187 3779 1179 Blue 11
1 AM Sun 92 92 W 13 4101 3492 892 Blue 10
2 AM Sun 92 92 W 10 4101 3492 892 Blue 10
3 AM Sun 91 91 W 8 4015 3203 603 Blue 9
4 AM Sun 90 90 SW 7 3793 3049 449 Blue 8
5 AM Sun 88 88 SW 6 3212 2858 258 Blue 6

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com