Detailed Predictions for: South Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.330881748, -112.061150641, 2600
LZ Altitude (f): 1400
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

16 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 86 86 W 9 9 3551 3340 740 Blue 13
1 AM Thu 85 85 NW 8 8 3481 3270 670 Blue 12
2 AM Thu 84 84 NW 6 6 3412 3200 600 Blue 11
3 AM Thu 82 82 SSW 5 5 3272 2999 399 Blue 9
4 AM Thu 82 82 S 4 4 3272 2999 399 Blue 9
5 AM Thu 80 80 SSW 4 4 3132 2821 221 Blue 7
6 AM Thu 80 80 SSE 3 3 3132 2821 221 Blue 7
7 AM Thu 80 80 SE 4 4 3132 2821 221 Blue 7
8 AM Thu 82 83 SE 4 4 3342 3131 531 Blue 10
9 AM Thu 84 86 SE 4 5 3551 3340 740 Blue 13
10 AM Thu 87 91 SE 4 6 4275 3689 1089 Blue 18
11 AM Thu 91 97 SE 4 6 9942 7628 5028 Blue 24
12 Noon Thu 94 101 S 4 10 14130 14130 11530 White 28
1 PM Thu 96 102 SSW 5 10 14334 14334 11734 White 29
2 PM Thu 98 104 SW 5 11 14740 14740 12140 White 31
3 PM Thu 98 102 WSW 5 11 14334 14334 11734 White 29
4 PM Thu 98 100 WNW 5 12 13926 9787 7187 White 27
5 PM Thu 97 98 W 5 11 13516 8410 5810 White 25
6 PM Thu 97 97 WNW 4 8 9942 7628 5028 Blue 24
7 PM Thu 93 93 WNW 2 4 6639 4065 1465 Blue 20
8 PM Thu 91 91 WNW 2 3 4275 3689 1089 Blue 18
9 PM Thu 90 90 WNW 3 3 4075 3619 1019 Blue 17
10 PM Thu 89 89 W 4 4 3874 3549 949 Blue 16
11 PM Thu 87 87 WNW 8 9 3621 3409 809 Blue 14
12 Midnight Fri 87 87 WSW 6 6 3621 3409 809 Blue 14
1 AM Fri 85 85 W 6 8 3481 3270 670 Blue 12
2 AM Fri 85 85 W 6 8 3481 3270 670 Blue 12
3 AM Fri 83 83 WSW 6 9 3342 3131 531 Blue 10
4 AM Fri 82 82 SSW 5 6 3272 2999 399 Blue 9
5 AM Fri 81 81 N 5 6 3202 2884 284 Blue 8
6 AM Fri 80 80 NE 5 5 3132 2821 221 Blue 7
7 AM Fri 80 80 E 4 5 3132 2821 221 Blue 7
8 AM Fri 82 82 ESE 4 4 3272 2999 399 Blue 9
9 AM Fri 83 85 SE 4 4 3481 3270 670 Blue 12
10 AM Fri 85 88 SE 3 5 3691 3479 879 Blue 15
11 AM Fri 87 91 E 2 4 4275 3689 1089 Blue 18
12 Noon Fri 89 94 W 1 1 7787 4264 1664 Blue 21
1 PM Fri 91 96 W 3 3 9265 6478 3878 Blue 23
2 PM Fri 93 98 W 5 5 13516 8410 5810 White 25
3 PM Fri 94 97 W 5 5 9942 7628 5028 Blue 24
4 PM Fri 95 97 W 5 5 9942 7628 5028 Blue 24
5 PM Fri 94 94 W 5 5 7787 4264 1664 Blue 21
6 PM Fri 92 92 W 5 5 5218 3866 1266 Blue 19
7 PM Fri 89 89 W 6 6 3874 3549 949 Blue 16
8 PM Fri 86 86 WSW 6 6 3551 3340 740 Blue 13
9 PM Fri 85 85 W 8 8 3481 3270 670 Blue 12
10 PM Fri 85 85 W 9 12 3481 3270 670 Blue 12
11 PM Fri 85 85 W 10 13 3481 3270 670 Blue 12
12 Midnight Sat 84 84 W 9 13 3412 3200 600 Blue 11
1 AM Sat 83 83 WSW 9 9 3342 3131 531 Blue 10
2 AM Sat 82 82 WSW 8 8 3272 2999 399 Blue 9
3 AM Sat 81 81 SW 6 6 3202 2884 284 Blue 8
4 AM Sat 80 80 SSW 6 6 3132 2821 221 Blue 7
5 AM Sat 79 79 S 5 5 3001 2758 158 Blue 6
6 AM Sat 79 79 S 5 5 3001 2758 158 Blue 6
7 AM Sat 79 79 S 4 4 3001 2758 158 Blue 6
8 AM Sat 80 81 S 4 4 3202 2884 284 Blue 8
9 AM Sat 82 84 S 4 4 3412 3200 600 Blue 11
10 AM Sat 84 88 SSW 4 4 3691 3479 879 Blue 15
11 AM Sat 87 92 SW 4 4 5218 3866 1266 Blue 19
12 Noon Sat 89 95 SW 4 4 8549 5086 2486 Blue 22
1 PM Sat 92 98 WSW 5 5 13516 8410 5810 White 25
2 PM Sat 93 98 WSW 5 5 13516 8410 5810 White 25
3 PM Sat 94 98 WSW 6 6 13516 8410 5810 White 25
4 PM Sat 94 96 W 6 6 9265 6478 3878 Blue 23
5 PM Sat 93 93 W 6 6 6639 4065 1465 Blue 20
6 PM Sat 92 92 W 6 6 5218 3866 1266 Blue 19
7 PM Sat 90 90 W 5 5 4075 3619 1019 Blue 17
8 PM Sat 89 89 W 5 5 3874 3549 949 Blue 16
9 PM Sat 88 88 W 6 6 3691 3479 879 Blue 15
10 PM Sat 87 87 W 8 8 3621 3409 809 Blue 14
11 PM Sat 86 86 W 9 9 3551 3340 740 Blue 13
12 Midnight Sun 85 85 W 8 8 3481 3270 670 Blue 12
1 AM Sun 84 84 W 6 6 3412 3200 600 Blue 11
2 AM Sun 83 83 W 5 5 3342 3131 531 Blue 10
3 AM Sun 82 82 WSW 5 5 3272 2999 399 Blue 9
4 AM Sun 81 81 SSW 4 4 3202 2884 284 Blue 8
5 AM Sun 80 80 S 4 4 3132 2821 221 Blue 7
6 AM Sun 80 80 S 4 4 3132 2821 221 Blue 7
7 AM Sun 81 81 S 4 4 3202 2884 284 Blue 8
8 AM Sun 82 82 S 4 4 3272 2999 399 Blue 9
9 AM Sun 84 86 S 4 4 3551 3340 740 Blue 13
10 AM Sun 86 90 S 3 3 4075 3619 1019 Blue 17
11 AM Sun 88 93 SSW 3 3 6639 4065 1465 Blue 20
12 Noon Sun 91 97 SSW 4 4 9942 7628 5028 Blue 24
1 PM Sun 93 99 SW 5 5 13722 9118 6518 White 26
2 PM Sun 95 100 WSW 8 8 13926 9787 7187 White 27
3 PM Sun 96 100 WSW 8 8 13926 9787 7187 White 27
4 PM Sun 96 98 WSW 9 9 13516 8410 5810 White 25
5 PM Sun 95 96 WSW 9 9 9265 6478 3878 Blue 23
6 PM Sun 93 93 WSW 8 8 6639 4065 1465 Blue 20
7 PM Sun 91 91 W 8 8 4275 3689 1089 Blue 18
8 PM Sun 89 89 W 6 6 3874 3549 949 Blue 16
9 PM Sun 87 87 W 8 8 3621 3409 809 Blue 14
10 PM Sun 86 86 WSW 9 13 3551 3340 740 Blue 13
11 PM Sun 85 85 WSW 10 14 3481 3270 670 Blue 12
12 Midnight Mon 84 84 WSW 10 13 3412 3200 600 Blue 11
1 AM Mon 83 83 WSW 9 9 3342 3131 531 Blue 10
2 AM Mon 82 82 WSW 8 8 3272 2999 399 Blue 9
3 AM Mon 80 80 SW 6 6 3132 2821 221 Blue 7
4 AM Mon 78 78 SSW 6 6 2885 2695 95 Blue 5
5 AM Mon 77 77 SSW 5 5 2822 2632 32 Blue 4
6 AM Mon 77 77 S 5 5 2822 2632 32 Blue 4
7 AM Mon 78 78 S 5 5 2885 2695 95 Blue 5
8 AM Mon 79 80 SSE 5 5 3132 2821 221 Blue 7
9 AM Mon 81 83 S 5 5 3342 3131 531 Blue 10
10 AM Mon 83 87 SSW 5 5 3621 3409 809 Blue 14
11 AM Mon 86 92 SSW 5 5 5218 3866 1266 Blue 19
12 Noon Mon 89 96 SW 6 6 9265 6478 3878 Blue 23
1 PM Mon 91 98 WSW 9 9 13516 8410 5810 White 25
2 PM Mon 93 99 WSW 10 13 13722 9118 6518 White 26
3 PM Mon 94 98 WSW 10 14 13516 8410 5810 White 25
4 PM Mon 94 96 WSW 10 14 9265 6478 3878 Blue 23
5 PM Mon 93 94 W 10 14 7787 4264 1664 Blue 21
6 PM Mon 91 91 W 9 9 4275 3689 1089 Blue 18
7 PM Mon 88 88 WSW 8 8 3691 3479 879 Blue 15
8 PM Mon 86 86 WSW 6 6 3551 3340 740 Blue 13
9 PM Mon 84 84 WSW 6 6 3412 3200 600 Blue 11
10 PM Mon 83 83 WSW 8 8 3342 3131 531 Blue 10
11 PM Mon 82 82 WSW 9 9 3272 2999 399 Blue 9
12 Midnight Tue 81 81 SW 8 8 3202 2884 284 Blue 8
1 AM Tue 79 79 SW 8 8 3001 2758 158 Blue 6
2 AM Tue 78 78 SSW 6 6 2885 2695 95 Blue 5
3 AM Tue 76 76 S 6 6 2759 2600 0 Blue 3
4 AM Tue 75 75 SE 5 5 2696 2600 0 Blue 2
5 AM Tue 74 74 E 5 5 2633 2600 0 Blue 1
6 AM Tue 74 74 E 5 5 2633 2600 0 Blue 1
7 AM Tue 75 75 E 6 6 2696 2600 0 Blue 2
8 AM Tue 76 77 E 6 6 2822 2632 32 Blue 4
9 AM Tue 78 80 E 6 6 3132 2821 221 Blue 7
10 AM Tue 81 85 E 5 5 3481 3270 670 Blue 12
11 AM Tue 84 90 E 5 5 4075 3619 1019 Blue 17
12 Noon Tue 87 94 SE 4 4 7787 4264 1664 Blue 21
1 PM Tue 89 96 S 4 4 9265 6478 3878 Blue 23
2 PM Tue 91 97 SSW 3 3 9942 7628 5028 Blue 24
3 PM Tue 92 96 SW 3 3 9265 6478 3878 Blue 23
4 PM Tue 92 94 W 4 4 7787 4264 1664 Blue 21
5 PM Tue 91 92 W 4 4 5218 3866 1266 Blue 19
6 PM Tue 89 89 W 4 4 3874 3549 949 Blue 16
7 PM Tue 86 86 W 4 4 3551 3340 740 Blue 13
8 PM Tue 84 84 W 4 4 3412 3200 600 Blue 11
9 PM Tue 83 83 WNW 5 5 3342 3131 531 Blue 10
10 PM Tue 82 82 NW 5 5 3272 2999 399 Blue 9

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com