Detailed Predictions for: South Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 2600
LZ Altitude (f): 1400
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 50 50 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 50 50 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 50 50 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 50 50 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 54 54 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 57 58 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 57 59 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 60 62 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 62 64 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 63 64 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 64 65 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 63 63 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 63 63 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 60 60 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 58 58 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 57 57 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 57 57 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 56 56 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 56 56 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 56 56 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 56 56 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 56 56 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 56 56 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 56 56 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 55 55 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 55 55 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 54 54 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 54 54 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 56 56 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 57 58 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 58 60 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 58 60 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 59 61 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 60 62 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 61 62 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 61 61 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 61 61 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 60 60 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 58 58 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 55 55 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 54 54 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 53 53 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 52 52 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 51 51 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 50 50 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 50 50 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 49 49 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 49 49 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 48 48 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 47 47 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 47 47 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 48 48 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 50 50 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 52 53 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 55 57 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 57 60 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 59 62 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 61 63 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 62 63 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 63 63 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 62 62 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 60 60 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 58 58 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 56 56 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 55 55 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 54 54 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 53 53 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 52 52 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 52 52 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 51 51 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 51 51 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 50 50 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 50 50 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 49 49 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 49 49 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 50 50 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 52 52 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 56 56 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 59 60 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 62 63 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 64 65 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 65 66 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 66 67 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 66 66 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 65 65 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 63 63 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 61 61 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 58 58 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 56 56 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 54 54 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 53 53 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 53 53 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 53 53 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 52 52 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 52 52 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 51 51 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 50 50 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 50 50 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 50 50 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 51 51 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 53 53 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 56 57 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 58 60 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 60 62 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 62 64 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 63 65 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 63 64 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 62 62 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 61 61 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 59 59 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 56 56 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 54 54 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 53 53 NW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 52 52 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 51 51 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 50 50 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 49 49 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 48 48 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 47 47 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 47 47 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 46 46 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 45 45 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 45 45 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 45 45 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 46 46 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 48 49 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 51 53 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 53 56 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 55 58 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 56 58 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 57 58 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 57 57 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 56 56 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 55 55 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 54 54 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 52 52 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 51 51 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 49 49 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 48 48 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 47 47 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 46 46 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 46 46 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 46 46 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 45 45 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com