Detailed Predictions for: South Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 2600
LZ Altitude (f): 1400
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

19 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 54 54 E 13 2474 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 57 57 E 13 2621 2600 0 Blue 3
7 AM Sun 54 54 E 14 2474 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 57 57 E 14 2621 2600 0 Blue 3
9 AM Sun 60 61 E 13 2737 2646 46 Blue 7
10 AM Sun 64 66 E 12 3130 2823 223 Blue 12
11 AM Sun 66 69 E 10 3319 3128 528 Blue 15
12 Noon Sun 70 73 E 9 4017 3427 827 Blue 19
1 PM Sun 72 75 E 8 5361 3853 1253 Blue 21
2 PM Sun 73 75 E 7 5361 3853 1253 Blue 21
3 PM Sun 74 75 NE 7 5361 3853 1253 Blue 21
4 PM Sun 74 74 NE 6 4983 3773 1173 Blue 20
5 PM Sun 69 69 N 5 3319 3128 528 Blue 15
6 PM Sun 66 66 N 5 3130 2823 223 Blue 12
7 PM Sun 65 65 NE 6 2927 2772 172 Blue 11
8 PM Sun 63 63 NE 6 2824 2707 107 Blue 9
9 PM Sun 62 62 NE 6 2773 2677 77 Blue 8
10 PM Sun 61 61 E 7 2737 2646 46 Blue 7
11 PM Sun 60 60 E 7 2707 2621 21 Blue 6
12 Midnight Mon 59 59 E 7 2677 2600 0 Blue 5
1 AM Mon 58 58 E 8 2647 2600 0 Blue 4
2 AM Mon 58 58 E 8 2647 2600 0 Blue 4
3 AM Mon 57 57 E 8 2621 2600 0 Blue 3
4 AM Mon 57 57 E 9 2621 2600 0 Blue 3
5 AM Mon 56 56 E 9 2596 2600 0 Blue 2
6 AM Mon 56 56 E 9 2596 2600 0 Blue 2
7 AM Mon 55 55 E 9 2542 2600 0 Blue 1
8 AM Mon 57 57 E 9 2621 2600 0 Blue 3
9 AM Mon 62 62 E 8 2773 2677 77 Blue 8
10 AM Mon 65 66 E 7 3130 2823 223 Blue 12
11 AM Mon 67 69 E 6 3319 3128 528 Blue 15
12 Noon Mon 73 76 E 3 5521 3962 1362 Blue 22
1 PM Mon 75 77 NE 2 5681 4905 2305 Blue 23
2 PM Mon 75 76 NE 1 5521 3962 1362 Blue 22
3 PM Mon 74 75 N 1 5361 3853 1253 Blue 21
4 PM Mon 73 73 NW 2 4017 3427 827 Blue 19
5 PM Mon 72 72 W 3 3857 3317 717 Blue 18
6 PM Mon 70 70 NW 5 3440 3191 591 Blue 16
7 PM Mon 68 68 NW 5 3256 2926 326 Blue 14
8 PM Mon 66 66 NW 5 3130 2823 223 Blue 12
9 PM Mon 64 64 NW 5 2876 2737 137 Blue 10
10 PM Mon 63 63 NW 3 2824 2707 107 Blue 9
11 PM Mon 63 63 NW 2 2824 2707 107 Blue 9
12 Midnight Tue 62 62 NW 2 2773 2677 77 Blue 8
1 AM Tue 61 61 N 2 2737 2646 46 Blue 7
2 AM Tue 61 61 NE 2 2737 2646 46 Blue 7
3 AM Tue 60 60 NE 3 2707 2621 21 Blue 6
4 AM Tue 59 59 E 3 2677 2600 0 Blue 5
5 AM Tue 59 59 E 5 2677 2600 0 Blue 5
6 AM Tue 58 58 E 5 2647 2600 0 Blue 4
7 AM Tue 58 58 E 5 2647 2600 0 Blue 4
8 AM Tue 60 60 E 5 2707 2621 21 Blue 6
9 AM Tue 62 62 E 5 2773 2677 77 Blue 8
10 AM Tue 67 68 E 5 3256 2926 326 Blue 14
11 AM Tue 71 73 E 5 4017 3427 827 Blue 19
12 Noon Tue 74 76 NE 5 5521 3962 1362 Blue 22
1 PM Tue 77 79 NE 5 6544 5504 2904 Blue 25
2 PM Tue 79 80 N 6 7259 5664 3064 Blue 26
3 PM Tue 79 80 N 6 7259 5664 3064 Blue 26
4 PM Tue 78 78 NW 6 5841 5345 2745 Blue 24
5 PM Tue 76 76 NW 7 5521 3962 1362 Blue 22
6 PM Tue 73 73 NW 7 4017 3427 827 Blue 19
7 PM Tue 71 71 N 7 3777 3254 654 Blue 17
8 PM Tue 69 69 N 7 3319 3128 528 Blue 15
9 PM Tue 67 67 NE 8 3193 2875 275 Blue 13
10 PM Tue 67 67 NE 8 3193 2875 275 Blue 13
11 PM Tue 67 67 NE 8 3193 2875 275 Blue 13
12 Midnight Wed 66 66 NE 9 3130 2823 223 Blue 12
1 AM Wed 65 65 E 9 2927 2772 172 Blue 11
2 AM Wed 65 65 E 10 2927 2772 172 Blue 11
3 AM Wed 64 64 E 12 2876 2737 137 Blue 10
4 AM Wed 63 63 E 12 2824 2707 107 Blue 9
5 AM Wed 62 62 E 12 2773 2677 77 Blue 8
6 AM Wed 62 62 E 13 2773 2677 77 Blue 8
7 AM Wed 62 62 E 13 2773 2677 77 Blue 8
8 AM Wed 64 64 E 12 2876 2737 137 Blue 10
9 AM Wed 67 67 E 12 3193 2875 275 Blue 13
10 AM Wed 71 72 E 10 3857 3317 717 Blue 18
11 AM Wed 75 77 E 10 5681 4905 2305 Blue 23
12 Noon Wed 79 81 E 9 9571 5823 3223 Blue 27
1 PM Wed 82 84 E 7 9829 9551 6951 Blue 30
2 PM Wed 84 86 E 6 10387 9722 7122 Blue 32
3 PM Wed 84 85 NE 5 9929 9636 7036 Blue 31
4 PM Wed 82 82 NE 3 9657 6444 3844 Blue 28
5 PM Wed 80 80 NE 3 7259 5664 3064 Blue 26
6 PM Wed 77 77 NE 3 5681 4905 2305 Blue 23
7 PM Wed 74 74 NE 5 4983 3773 1173 Blue 20
8 PM Wed 72 72 NE 7 3857 3317 717 Blue 18
9 PM Wed 71 71 NE 8 3777 3254 654 Blue 17
10 PM Wed 70 70 NE 10 3440 3191 591 Blue 16
11 PM Wed 70 70 NE 12 3440 3191 591 Blue 16
12 Midnight Thu 69 69 E 12 3319 3128 528 Blue 15
1 AM Thu 67 67 E 12 3193 2875 275 Blue 13
2 AM Thu 66 66 E 12 3130 2823 223 Blue 12
3 AM Thu 65 65 E 12 2927 2772 172 Blue 11
4 AM Thu 65 65 E 12 2927 2772 172 Blue 11
5 AM Thu 64 64 E 12 2876 2737 137 Blue 10
6 AM Thu 63 63 E 12 2824 2707 107 Blue 9
7 AM Thu 63 63 E 10 2824 2707 107 Blue 9
8 AM Thu 64 64 E 10 2876 2737 137 Blue 10
9 AM Thu 67 68 E 10 3256 2926 326 Blue 14
10 AM Thu 71 73 E 9 4017 3427 827 Blue 19
11 AM Thu 76 79 E 9 6544 5504 2904 Blue 25
12 Noon Thu 80 83 E 8 9743 7149 4549 Blue 29
1 PM Thu 83 86 NE 7 10387 9722 7122 Blue 32
2 PM Thu 85 87 NE 6 10533 9807 7207 Blue 33
3 PM Thu 85 86 NE 3 10387 9722 7122 Blue 32
4 PM Thu 83 83 N 3 9743 7149 4549 Blue 29
5 PM Thu 81 81 N 2 9571 5823 3223 Blue 27
6 PM Thu 77 77 N 2 5681 4905 2305 Blue 23
7 PM Thu 74 74 NE 2 4983 3773 1173 Blue 20
8 PM Thu 72 72 NE 2 3857 3317 717 Blue 18
9 PM Thu 71 71 NE 3 3777 3254 654 Blue 17
10 PM Thu 70 70 NE 3 3440 3191 591 Blue 16
11 PM Thu 70 70 NE 3 3440 3191 591 Blue 16
12 Midnight Fri 69 69 E 5 3319 3128 528 Blue 15
1 AM Fri 67 67 E 5 3193 2875 275 Blue 13
2 AM Fri 66 66 E 5 3130 2823 223 Blue 12
3 AM Fri 66 66 E 5 3130 2823 223 Blue 12
4 AM Fri 65 65 E 5 2927 2772 172 Blue 11
5 AM Fri 64 64 E 6 2876 2737 137 Blue 10
6 AM Fri 63 63 E 5 2824 2707 107 Blue 9
7 AM Fri 63 63 E 5 2824 2707 107 Blue 9
8 AM Fri 64 64 E 5 2876 2737 137 Blue 10
9 AM Fri 67 68 E 5 3256 2926 326 Blue 14
10 AM Fri 71 73 E 5 4017 3427 827 Blue 19
11 AM Fri 76 78 E 3 5841 5345 2745 Blue 24
12 Noon Fri 79 82 SE 3 9657 6444 3844 Blue 28
1 PM Fri 82 85 S 3 9929 9636 7036 Blue 31
2 PM Fri 83 85 S 3 9929 9636 7036 Blue 31
3 PM Fri 83 84 SW 2 9829 9551 6951 Blue 30
4 PM Fri 81 81 W 2 9571 5823 3223 Blue 27
5 PM Fri 79 79 W 2 6544 5504 2904 Blue 25
6 PM Fri 76 76 W 2 5521 3962 1362 Blue 22
7 PM Fri 73 73 NW 1 4017 3427 827 Blue 19
8 PM Fri 71 71 NW 1 3777 3254 654 Blue 17
9 PM Fri 70 70 N 1 3440 3191 591 Blue 16
10 PM Fri 69 69 N 1 3319 3128 528 Blue 15
11 PM Fri 68 68 N 1 3256 2926 326 Blue 14
12 Midnight Sat 67 67 N 1 3193 2875 275 Blue 13
1 AM Sat 66 66 NE 1 3130 2823 223 Blue 12
2 AM Sat 65 65 NE 2 2927 2772 172 Blue 11
3 AM Sat 64 64 E 2 2876 2737 137 Blue 10
4 AM Sat 63 63 E 2 2824 2707 107 Blue 9

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com