Detailed Predictions for: The Y
Launch Altitude (f): 4900
LZ Altitude (f): 3150
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

26 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sun 53 53 SE 12 3399 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 51 52 SE 13 3399 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 55 57 SE 16 3399 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 58 62 SE 17 3399 4900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 61 67 SE 18 6803 4900 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 62 70 S 20 8304 6641 1741 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 64 73 S 22 8934 8293 3393 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 65 73 S 22 8934 8293 3393 Blue 7
2 PM Sun 66 73 S 22 8934 8293 3393 Blue 7
3 PM Sun 68 73 S 22 8934 8293 3393 Blue 7
4 PM Sun 68 71 S 22 8389 7558 2658 Blue 5
5 PM Sun 69 70 S 22 8304 6641 1741 Blue 4
6 PM Sun 68 68 S 21 7625 4900 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 67 67 SW 21 6803 4900 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 65 65 SW 21 3993 4900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 64 64 S 16 3730 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 62 62 S 13 3399 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 60 60 SW 13 3399 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 58 58 SW 13 3399 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 56 56 SW 13 3399 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 56 56 SW 10 3399 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 54 54 SW 10 3399 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 54 54 SW 10 3399 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 52 52 SW 10 3399 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 50 50 SW 10 3399 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 49 49 SW 9 3399 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 50 51 SW 9 3399 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 50 52 SW 10 3399 4900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 53 57 SW 10 3399 4900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 54 60 SW 13 3399 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 55 62 SW 14 3399 4900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 56 63 SW 15 3465 4900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 58 64 SW 16 3730 4900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 59 64 SW 16 3730 4900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 59 62 W 16 3399 4900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 59 61 W 16 3399 4900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 59 59 W 15 3399 4900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 58 58 W 13 3399 4900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 56 56 W 10 3399 4900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 55 55 W 8 3399 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 54 54 W 7 3399 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 53 53 NW 6 3399 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 52 52 NW 6 3399 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 51 51 NW 6 3399 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 51 51 N 7 3399 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 50 50 N 8 3399 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 49 49 N 8 3399 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 48 48 NE 8 3399 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 48 48 NE 8 3399 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 51 52 NE 7 3399 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 55 57 E 6 3399 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 59 63 E 6 3465 4900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 62 68 SE 6 7625 4900 0 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 64 72 S 7 8670 8154 3254 Blue 6
12 Noon Tue 66 75 SW 8 9554 8626 3726 Blue 9
1 PM Tue 68 77 SW 9 11957 9110 4210 Blue 11
2 PM Tue 69 76 W 10 9731 8907 4007 Blue 10
3 PM Tue 70 76 W 12 9731 8907 4007 Blue 10
4 PM Tue 72 76 W 12 9731 8907 4007 Blue 10
5 PM Tue 72 74 W 12 9174 8377 3477 Blue 8
6 PM Tue 71 71 W 12 8389 7558 2658 Blue 5
7 PM Tue 70 70 W 10 8304 6641 1741 Blue 4
8 PM Tue 67 67 W 9 6803 4900 0 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 65 65 W 8 3993 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 62 62 W 8 3399 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 61 61 NW 8 3399 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 60 60 NW 8 3399 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 59 59 NW 8 3399 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 59 59 N 8 3399 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 58 58 N 8 3399 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 56 56 N 8 3399 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 55 N 8 3399 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 55 55 N 8 3399 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 58 58 N 7 3399 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 62 64 NE 6 3730 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 66 70 NE 6 8304 6641 1741 Blue 4
10 AM Wed 69 75 E 6 9554 8626 3726 Blue 9
11 AM Wed 72 79 S 7 12709 9699 4799 Blue 13
12 Noon Wed 74 82 S 8 14943 12605 7705 White 16
1 PM Wed 75 83 S 9 15146 12970 8070 White 17
2 PM Wed 76 83 SW 10 15146 12970 8070 White 17
3 PM Wed 77 82 SW 12 14943 12605 7705 White 16
4 PM Wed 78 81 SW 12 13582 12235 7335 Blue 15
5 PM Wed 78 79 SW 12 12709 9699 4799 Blue 13
6 PM Wed 77 77 SW 12 11957 9110 4210 Blue 11
7 PM Wed 75 75 SW 10 9554 8626 3726 Blue 9
8 PM Wed 73 73 W 8 8934 8293 3393 Blue 7
9 PM Wed 70 70 W 7 8304 6641 1741 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 69 69 W 7 8220 4900 0 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 67 67 W 7 6803 4900 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 66 66 NW 7 4256 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 65 65 NW 7 3993 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 64 64 N 7 3730 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 63 63 N 7 3465 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 61 61 N 7 3399 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 59 59 NE 8 3399 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 59 59 NE 8 3399 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 63 63 N 7 3465 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 66 68 N 7 7625 4900 0 Blue 2
9 AM Thu 69 73 N 7 8934 8293 3393 Blue 7
10 AM Thu 72 78 NW 8 12336 9500 4600 Blue 12
11 AM Thu 75 82 SW 9 14943 12605 7705 White 16
12 Noon Thu 77 85 S 12 15550 14810 9910 White 19
1 PM Thu 79 87 S 13 15952 15952 11052 White 21
2 PM Thu 80 87 S 14 15952 15952 11052 White 21
3 PM Thu 81 86 S 15 15751 15414 10514 White 20
4 PM Thu 81 84 S 15 15349 13330 8430 White 18
5 PM Thu 80 81 S 15 13582 12235 7335 Blue 15
6 PM Thu 78 78 S 14 12336 9500 4600 Blue 12
7 PM Thu 75 75 SW 13 9554 8626 3726 Blue 9
8 PM Thu 71 71 SW 10 8389 7558 2658 Blue 5
9 PM Thu 69 69 SW 9 8220 4900 0 Blue 3
10 PM Thu 67 67 SW 8 6803 4900 0 Blue 1
11 PM Thu 66 66 SW 8 4256 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 64 64 SW 8 3730 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 63 63 SW 8 3465 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 63 63 S 8 3465 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 61 61 S 8 3399 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 61 61 S 8 3399 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 60 60 S 8 3399 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 60 60 SE 8 3399 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 63 63 SE 8 3465 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 66 68 SE 8 7625 4900 0 Blue 2
9 AM Fri 69 73 S 8 8934 8293 3393 Blue 7
10 AM Fri 72 78 S 9 12336 9500 4600 Blue 12
11 AM Fri 75 83 S 12 15146 12970 8070 White 17
12 Noon Fri 77 85 S 14 15550 14810 9910 White 19
1 PM Fri 79 87 S 15 15952 15952 11052 White 21
2 PM Fri 80 87 S 15 15952 15952 11052 White 21
3 PM Fri 81 86 S 15 15751 15414 10514 White 20
4 PM Fri 81 84 S 15 15349 13330 8430 White 18
5 PM Fri 80 82 S 15 14943 12605 7705 White 16
6 PM Fri 79 79 S 15 12709 9699 4799 Blue 13
7 PM Fri 76 76 S 14 9731 8907 4007 Blue 10
8 PM Fri 72 72 SW 12 8670 8154 3254 Blue 6
9 PM Fri 69 69 SW 10 8220 4900 0 Blue 3
10 PM Fri 67 67 SW 9 6803 4900 0 Blue 1
11 PM Fri 66 66 SW 8 4256 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 65 65 SW 8 3993 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 63 63 SW 8 3465 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 62 62 S 8 3399 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 62 62 S 8 3399 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 61 61 S 8 3399 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 60 60 SE 8 3399 4900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com