Detailed Predictions for: The Y
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.1885, -112.7558, 4900
LZ Altitude (f): 3150
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

2 OCT 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 69 69 NE 5 10 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 69 69 NE 6 11 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 67 67 ENE 6 11 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 67 67 ENE 6 11 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 67 67 ENE 6 11 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 66 66 ENE 8 13 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 65 65 ENE 9 14 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 65 65 ENE 9 14 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 71 71 E 10 16 5189 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 74 75 ESE 10 16 8701 6057 1157 Blue 4
10 AM Sun 77 80 SE 10 16 11250 9783 4883 White 9
11 AM Sun 80 83 SSE 10 17 11882 11882 6982 White 12
12 Noon Sun 81 85 SSE 11 18 12300 12300 7400 White 14
1 PM Sun 82 86 S 11 18 12508 12508 7608 White 15
2 PM Sun 82 85 S 11 18 12300 12300 7400 White 14
3 PM Sun 81 83 S 11 18 11882 11882 6982 White 12
4 PM Sun 81 82 S 11 18 11672 11532 6632 White 11
5 PM Sun 79 79 S 10 16 11036 8991 4091 White 8
6 PM Sun 77 77 SSW 8 12 10346 8324 3424 Blue 6
7 PM Sun 74 74 NNE 8 12 8366 5164 264 Blue 3
8 PM Sun 73 73 NNE 5 10 6758 4900 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sun 72 72 NNE 5 10 6093 4900 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 71 71 NNE 8 12 5189 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 71 71 NNE 9 14 5189 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 70 70 NNE 9 14 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 68 68 NNE 9 14 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 67 67 NNE 9 14 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 67 67 NE 9 14 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 67 67 NE 9 14 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 66 66 NE 10 16 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 65 65 NE 10 16 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 66 66 ENE 10 16 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 72 72 ENE 10 16 6093 4900 0 Blue 1
9 AM Mon 76 78 E 9 14 10823 8654 3754 White 7
10 AM Mon 79 82 ESE 8 12 11672 11532 6632 White 11
11 AM Mon 82 84 SSE 8 12 12092 12092 7192 White 13
12 Noon Mon 83 86 S 8 13 12508 12508 7608 White 15
1 PM Mon 83 86 SW 9 14 12508 12508 7608 White 15
2 PM Mon 82 84 W 10 17 12092 12092 7192 White 13
3 PM Mon 80 81 WNW 11 19 11461 11133 6233 White 10
4 PM Mon 79 80 N 12 20 11250 9783 4883 White 9
5 PM Mon 77 77 N 12 20 10346 8324 3424 Blue 6
6 PM Mon 75 75 N 11 19 8701 6057 1157 Blue 4
7 PM Mon 72 72 NNE 10 17 6093 4900 0 Blue 1
8 PM Mon 71 71 NNE 9 14 5189 4900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 69 69 NNE 9 14 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 69 69 NE 9 14 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 68 68 NE 10 16 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 67 67 NE 9 14 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 67 67 NE 9 13 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 66 66 NE 8 13 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 64 64 NE 8 13 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 63 63 NNE 9 13 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 63 63 NNE 9 14 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 64 64 NNE 9 14 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 66 66 NE 9 14 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 69 69 NE 9 14 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 73 74 ENE 8 13 8366 5164 264 Blue 3
10 AM Tue 77 80 ESE 8 12 11250 9783 4883 White 9
11 AM Tue 81 84 SE 8 12 12092 12092 7192 White 13
12 Noon Tue 82 86 S 8 13 12508 12508 7608 White 15
1 PM Tue 83 87 SW 9 16 12717 12717 7817 White 16
2 PM Tue 83 86 W 10 17 12508 12508 7608 White 15
3 PM Tue 83 85 W 11 18 12300 12300 7400 White 14
4 PM Tue 82 83 W 11 18 11882 11882 6982 White 12
5 PM Tue 80 80 W 10 17 11250 9783 4883 White 9
6 PM Tue 77 77 WNW 9 14 10346 8324 3424 Blue 6
7 PM Tue 74 74 N 8 11 8366 5164 264 Blue 3
8 PM Tue 71 71 N 5 10 5189 4900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 70 70 NNE 5 9 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 69 69 NNE 5 10 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 68 68 NNE 6 11 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 67 67 NE 6 11 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 66 66 NE 8 12 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 65 65 ENE 8 13 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 63 63 ENE 8 13 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 63 63 ENE 8 13 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 63 63 ENE 8 13 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 64 64 ENE 9 13 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 66 66 ENE 9 14 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 69 69 ENE 9 14 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 72 73 E 8 13 6758 4900 0 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 75 78 SE 8 12 10823 8654 3754 White 7
11 AM Wed 78 82 SSE 8 12 11672 11532 6632 White 11
12 Noon Wed 80 85 S 8 13 12300 12300 7400 White 14
1 PM Wed 82 87 SSW 10 16 12717 12717 7817 White 16
2 PM Wed 82 86 SW 10 17 12508 12508 7608 White 15
3 PM Wed 81 84 WSW 10 17 12092 12092 7192 White 13
4 PM Wed 80 81 W 10 16 11461 11133 6233 White 10
5 PM Wed 78 78 W 9 14 10823 8654 3754 White 7
6 PM Wed 75 75 WNW 8 12 8701 6057 1157 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 72 72 N 6 11 6093 4900 0 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 69 69 N 6 11 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 68 68 NNE 6 11 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 67 67 NNE 8 13 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 67 67 NE 9 14 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 66 66 NE 9 14 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 65 65 NE 9 14 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 64 64 NE 9 14 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 62 62 NE 9 14 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 61 61 NE 9 16 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 61 61 NE 10 16 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 62 62 NE 10 16 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 65 65 ENE 10 16 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 68 68 ENE 10 16 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 72 73 ENE 9 14 6758 4900 0 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 76 79 E 9 14 11036 8991 4091 White 8
11 AM Thu 79 82 ESE 9 14 11672 11532 6632 White 11
12 Noon Thu 81 85 ESE 10 16 12300 12300 7400 White 14
1 PM Thu 82 86 SSE 10 17 12508 12508 7608 White 15
2 PM Thu 82 85 SSE 11 18 12300 12300 7400 White 14
3 PM Thu 81 83 SSE 12 19 11882 11882 6982 White 12
4 PM Thu 80 81 SSE 12 19 11461 11133 6233 White 10
5 PM Thu 78 78 SE 12 19 10823 8654 3754 White 7
6 PM Thu 75 75 ESE 11 17 8701 6057 1157 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 73 73 ENE 9 14 6758 4900 0 Blue 2
8 PM Thu 70 70 NE 8 13 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 68 68 NE 8 13 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 67 67 NE 9 13 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 66 66 NE 9 14 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 65 65 NE 9 14 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 64 64 NE 9 14 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 63 63 NE 9 14 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 63 63 NE 9 14 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 62 62 NE 9 14 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 62 62 NE 10 16 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 63 63 ENE 10 16 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 65 65 ENE 10 17 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 67 67 ENE 11 18 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 71 72 E 12 19 6093 4900 0 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 75 77 E 12 20 10346 8324 3424 Blue 6
11 AM Fri 78 81 ESE 13 21 11461 11133 6233 White 10
12 Noon Fri 80 84 ESE 14 23 12092 12092 7192 White 13
1 PM Fri 80 84 ESE 14 24 12092 12092 7192 White 13
2 PM Fri 80 83 ESE 14 24 11882 11882 6982 White 12
3 PM Fri 79 81 ESE 14 23 11461 11133 6233 White 10
4 PM Fri 78 79 ESE 13 21 11036 8991 4091 White 8
5 PM Fri 76 76 ESE 12 19 9042 6710 1810 Blue 5
6 PM Fri 73 73 ESE 10 17 6758 4900 0 Blue 2
7 PM Fri 70 70 E 9 14 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 68 68 E 8 13 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 67 67 E 8 13 4259 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 67 67 ENE 9 13 4259 4900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com