Detailed Predictions for: The Y
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.1885, -112.7558, 4900
LZ Altitude (f): 3150
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

16 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 72 72 NNW 8 12 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 71 71 NNW 8 12 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 70 70 NNW 8 12 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 68 68 NNW 8 12 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 67 67 N 8 12 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 67 67 N 8 12 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 67 67 N 8 11 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 67 67 NNE 8 11 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 78 79 NE 6 10 3939 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 83 85 S 8 11 8967 5807 907 Blue 4
10 AM Thu 86 90 SSW 10 14 15772 13804 8904 Blue 9
11 AM Thu 87 93 SSW 12 19 16271 15747 10847 Blue 12
12 Noon Thu 88 94 SSW 14 23 16614 15825 10925 Blue 13
1 PM Thu 91 97 SSW 17 25 17104 16476 11576 Blue 16
2 PM Thu 91 96 SSW 17 26 16971 16136 11236 Blue 15
3 PM Thu 91 95 SW 17 25 16837 15921 11021 Blue 14
4 PM Thu 90 92 SW 17 25 15958 15680 10780 Blue 11
5 PM Thu 89 90 SW 16 24 15772 13804 8904 Blue 9
6 PM Thu 86 86 SW 12 19 9686 7127 2227 Blue 5
7 PM Thu 81 81 WSW 10 16 4350 4900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 79 79 NW 8 12 3939 4900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 77 77 N 6 10 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 76 76 N 5 9 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 74 74 N 6 10 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 74 74 NNE 6 10 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 72 72 NNE 8 11 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 72 72 NE 8 12 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 70 70 E 8 11 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 69 69 E 8 11 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 69 69 ENE 8 11 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 68 68 ENE 8 11 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 68 68 N 8 11 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 76 76 NNE 8 11 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 79 80 NNE 6 10 4145 4900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 82 84 SSW 8 11 8201 4900 0 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 83 86 SSE 10 14 9686 7127 2227 Blue 5
12 Noon Fri 85 89 S 11 18 15705 9571 4671 Blue 8
1 PM Fri 86 90 S 12 19 15772 13804 8904 Blue 9
2 PM Fri 87 90 S 13 20 15772 13804 8904 Blue 9
3 PM Fri 87 89 SSW 13 20 15705 9571 4671 Blue 8
4 PM Fri 86 87 SSW 13 20 14578 8108 3208 Blue 6
5 PM Fri 85 85 SSW 12 18 8967 5807 907 Blue 4
6 PM Fri 83 83 SW 10 14 7233 4900 0 Blue 2
7 PM Fri 80 80 W 8 12 4145 4900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 78 78 WNW 6 10 3733 4900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 76 76 NW 6 10 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 74 74 N 6 10 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 73 73 NNE 8 11 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 73 73 NNE 8 11 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 73 73 NNE 6 10 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 72 72 NNE 6 10 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 70 70 NE 6 10 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 69 69 NE 8 11 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 68 68 NE 8 11 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 69 69 ENE 8 11 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 72 72 ENE 8 11 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 74 74 ENE 8 11 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 77 79 E 9 12 3939 4900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 80 83 SSE 10 14 7233 4900 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 82 86 S 11 17 9686 7127 2227 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 84 89 SSW 13 19 15705 9571 4671 Blue 8
1 PM Sat 86 91 SSW 14 21 15862 15613 10713 Blue 10
2 PM Sat 87 91 SSW 16 24 15862 15613 10713 Blue 10
3 PM Sat 87 90 SSW 16 25 15772 13804 8904 Blue 9
4 PM Sat 85 87 SW 16 25 14578 8108 3208 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 83 84 SW 14 23 8201 4900 0 Blue 3
6 PM Sat 81 81 SW 12 19 4350 4900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 78 78 SW 10 16 3733 4900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 76 76 SW 8 12 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 75 75 WSW 6 11 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 73 73 W 6 10 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 72 72 WNW 6 10 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 72 72 NW 6 10 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 71 71 N 6 10 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 70 70 NNE 6 10 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 68 68 NNE 6 10 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 67 67 NE 8 11 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 67 67 NE 8 11 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 69 69 ENE 8 11 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 72 72 E 8 10 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 75 75 ESE 8 11 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 77 79 SE 9 13 3939 4900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 79 83 S 10 16 7233 4900 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 81 86 S 12 19 9686 7127 2227 Blue 5
12 Noon Sun 83 89 SSW 14 21 15705 9571 4671 Blue 8
1 PM Sun 85 91 SSW 16 24 15862 15613 10713 Blue 10
2 PM Sun 86 92 SSW 17 25 15958 15680 10780 Blue 11
3 PM Sun 87 91 SSW 18 26 15862 15613 10713 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 87 89 SW 18 26 15705 9571 4671 Blue 8
5 PM Sun 85 86 SW 17 25 9686 7127 2227 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 82 82 SW 16 23 5876 4900 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 79 79 SW 13 20 3939 4900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 76 76 SW 12 18 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 74 74 SW 11 16 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 73 73 WSW 10 14 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 72 72 WSW 9 13 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 71 71 W 9 13 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 69 69 WNW 9 13 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 67 67 WNW 9 13 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 65 65 NNW 9 13 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 63 63 ENE 8 12 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 63 63 ESE 8 12 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 64 64 ESE 8 12 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 67 67 SE 9 13 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 70 71 SSE 10 14 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 73 75 SSE 11 17 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 76 80 S 13 19 4145 4900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 79 85 SSW 14 21 8967 5807 907 Blue 4
12 Noon Mon 82 89 SSW 16 23 15705 9571 4671 Blue 8
1 PM Mon 83 89 SW 17 24 15705 9571 4671 Blue 8
2 PM Mon 85 91 SW 17 25 15862 15613 10713 Blue 10
3 PM Mon 85 89 SW 17 25 15705 9571 4671 Blue 8
4 PM Mon 85 87 WSW 16 25 14578 8108 3208 Blue 6
5 PM Mon 83 84 WSW 14 23 8201 4900 0 Blue 3
6 PM Mon 80 80 W 12 19 4145 4900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 77 77 W 11 16 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 73 73 W 9 13 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 70 70 WNW 8 12 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 68 68 NNW 8 11 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 66 66 N 8 12 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 66 66 N 9 13 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 65 65 NNE 9 14 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 64 64 NNE 10 16 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 62 62 NNE 10 16 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 60 60 NNE 10 16 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 60 60 NNE 10 16 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 61 61 NE 10 16 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 64 64 NE 10 16 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 68 69 ENE 10 16 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 71 73 E 10 16 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 75 79 SE 11 16 3939 4900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 78 84 SSE 11 17 8201 4900 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Tue 80 87 SSE 12 18 14578 8108 3208 Blue 6
1 PM Tue 82 89 S 13 19 15705 9571 4671 Blue 8
2 PM Tue 83 89 SSW 13 20 15705 9571 4671 Blue 8
3 PM Tue 84 88 SSW 13 21 15638 8862 3962 Blue 7
4 PM Tue 84 86 SW 13 20 9686 7127 2227 Blue 5
5 PM Tue 83 84 WSW 12 19 8201 4900 0 Blue 3
6 PM Tue 80 80 WSW 11 17 4145 4900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 76 76 W 9 13 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 73 73 W 8 11 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 70 70 WNW 8 11 3701 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 68 68 N 8 11 3701 4900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com