Detailed Predictions for: The Y
Launch Altitude (f): 4900
LZ Altitude (f): 3150
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 36 36 NE 14 2940 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 36 36 NE 13 2940 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 37 37 NE 13 2940 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 39 39 NE 12 2940 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 42 43 NE 10 6908 4900 0 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 47 49 NE 8 7533 7394 2494 Blue 8
11 AM Tue 51 54 NE 7 8634 7775 2875 Blue 13
12 Noon Tue 54 57 NE 6 8753 8628 3728 Blue 16
1 PM Tue 56 59 NE 6 8833 8707 3807 Blue 18
2 PM Tue 58 60 NE 6 8873 8747 3847 Blue 19
3 PM Tue 59 60 NE 6 8873 8747 3847 Blue 19
4 PM Tue 59 59 N 7 8833 8707 3807 Blue 18
5 PM Tue 57 57 N 7 8753 8628 3728 Blue 16
6 PM Tue 54 54 N 7 8634 7775 2875 Blue 13
7 PM Tue 50 50 N 8 7652 7439 2539 Blue 9
8 PM Tue 46 46 N 8 7399 6833 1933 Blue 5
9 PM Tue 45 45 NE 8 7354 5973 1073 Blue 4
10 PM Tue 44 44 NE 9 7182 5013 113 Blue 3
11 PM Tue 44 44 NE 9 7182 5013 113 Blue 3
12 Midnight Wed 43 43 NE 9 6908 4900 0 Blue 2
1 AM Wed 41 41 NE 9 5044 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 39 39 NE 9 2940 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 39 39 NE 9 2940 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 39 39 NE 8 2940 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 39 39 NE 8 2940 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 39 39 NE 7 2940 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 39 39 NE 7 2940 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 41 41 E 6 5044 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 45 45 E 5 7354 5973 1073 Blue 4
10 AM Wed 49 50 E 5 7652 7439 2539 Blue 9
11 AM Wed 54 55 E 3 8673 8113 3213 Blue 14
12 Noon Wed 57 58 NE 3 8793 8667 3767 Blue 17
1 PM Wed 59 60 NE 3 8873 8747 3847 Blue 19
2 PM Wed 61 62 N 3 9025 8826 3926 Blue 21
3 PM Wed 62 62 N 3 9025 8826 3926 Blue 21
4 PM Wed 62 62 NW 5 9025 8826 3926 Blue 21
5 PM Wed 61 61 W 5 8940 8787 3887 Blue 20
6 PM Wed 57 57 NW 5 8753 8628 3728 Blue 16
7 PM Wed 53 53 NW 5 8504 7636 2736 Blue 12
8 PM Wed 50 50 N 5 7652 7439 2539 Blue 9
9 PM Wed 48 48 N 5 7488 7350 2450 Blue 7
10 PM Wed 48 48 NE 5 7488 7350 2450 Blue 7
11 PM Wed 48 48 NE 5 7488 7350 2450 Blue 7
12 Midnight Thu 47 47 NE 5 7444 7160 2260 Blue 6
1 AM Thu 46 46 NE 6 7399 6833 1933 Blue 5
2 AM Thu 46 46 NE 6 7399 6833 1933 Blue 5
3 AM Thu 45 45 NE 6 7354 5973 1073 Blue 4
4 AM Thu 44 44 NE 6 7182 5013 113 Blue 3
5 AM Thu 43 43 NE 6 6908 4900 0 Blue 2
6 AM Thu 43 43 NE 7 6908 4900 0 Blue 2
7 AM Thu 43 43 NE 7 6908 4900 0 Blue 2
8 AM Thu 45 45 NE 6 7354 5973 1073 Blue 4
9 AM Thu 49 50 NE 5 7652 7439 2539 Blue 9
10 AM Thu 54 56 E 3 8713 8455 3555 Blue 15
11 AM Thu 59 62 E 2 9025 8826 3926 Blue 21
12 Noon Thu 62 65 SE 2 9477 9011 4111 Blue 24
1 PM Thu 64 67 S 3 9881 9240 4340 Blue 26
2 PM Thu 65 67 SW 3 9881 9240 4340 Blue 26
3 PM Thu 65 66 SW 5 9679 9096 4196 Blue 25
4 PM Thu 64 64 SW 6 9275 8927 4027 Blue 23
5 PM Thu 62 62 W 6 9025 8826 3926 Blue 21
6 PM Thu 59 59 W 6 8833 8707 3807 Blue 18
7 PM Thu 54 54 W 5 8634 7775 2875 Blue 13
8 PM Thu 51 51 NW 5 7811 7483 2583 Blue 10
9 PM Thu 49 49 N 3 7533 7394 2494 Blue 8
10 PM Thu 49 49 N 2 7533 7394 2494 Blue 8
11 PM Thu 49 49 NE 1 7533 7394 2494 Blue 8
12 Midnight Fri 48 48 NE 1 7488 7350 2450 Blue 7
1 AM Fri 47 47 NE 2 7444 7160 2260 Blue 6
2 AM Fri 46 46 NE 2 7399 6833 1933 Blue 5
3 AM Fri 45 45 NE 2 7354 5973 1073 Blue 4
4 AM Fri 44 44 NE 3 7182 5013 113 Blue 3
5 AM Fri 44 44 E 3 7182 5013 113 Blue 3
6 AM Fri 45 45 E 3 7354 5973 1073 Blue 4
7 AM Fri 48 48 E 3 7488 7350 2450 Blue 7
8 AM Fri 51 51 SE 5 7811 7483 2583 Blue 10
9 AM Fri 55 56 SE 5 8713 8455 3555 Blue 15
10 AM Fri 58 60 S 5 8873 8747 3847 Blue 19
11 AM Fri 62 65 S 5 9477 9011 4111 Blue 24
12 Noon Fri 64 67 S 5 9881 9240 4340 Blue 26
1 PM Fri 66 69 S 5 10282 9642 4742 Blue 28
2 PM Fri 67 69 SW 5 10282 9642 4742 Blue 28
3 PM Fri 67 68 SW 5 10082 9441 4541 Blue 27
4 PM Fri 66 66 SW 5 9679 9096 4196 Blue 25
5 PM Fri 65 65 W 5 9477 9011 4111 Blue 24
6 PM Fri 64 64 W 5 9275 8927 4027 Blue 23
7 PM Fri 62 62 W 3 9025 8826 3926 Blue 21
8 PM Fri 59 59 W 3 8833 8707 3807 Blue 18
9 PM Fri 57 57 NW 2 8753 8628 3728 Blue 16
10 PM Fri 54 54 NW 2 8634 7775 2875 Blue 13
11 PM Fri 52 52 NW 1 8160 7528 2628 Blue 11
12 Midnight Sat 49 49 N 1 7533 7394 2494 Blue 8
1 AM Sat 47 47 N 1 7444 7160 2260 Blue 6
2 AM Sat 46 46 N 1 7399 6833 1933 Blue 5
3 AM Sat 45 45 NE 1 7354 5973 1073 Blue 4
4 AM Sat 45 45 NE 1 7354 5973 1073 Blue 4
5 AM Sat 46 46 NE 1 7399 6833 1933 Blue 5
6 AM Sat 48 48 E 2 7488 7350 2450 Blue 7
7 AM Sat 50 50 E 2 7652 7439 2539 Blue 9
8 AM Sat 53 53 SE 3 8504 7636 2736 Blue 12
9 AM Sat 56 56 SE 3 8713 8455 3555 Blue 15
10 AM Sat 59 60 S 5 8873 8747 3847 Blue 19
11 AM Sat 61 63 S 5 9110 8866 3966 Blue 22
12 Noon Sat 63 65 S 5 9477 9011 4111 Blue 24
1 PM Sat 64 66 S 5 9679 9096 4196 Blue 25
2 PM Sat 65 67 SW 5 9881 9240 4340 Blue 26
3 PM Sat 65 66 SW 5 9679 9096 4196 Blue 25
4 PM Sat 64 64 W 5 9275 8927 4027 Blue 23
5 PM Sat 63 63 W 5 9110 8866 3966 Blue 22
6 PM Sat 61 61 W 5 8940 8787 3887 Blue 20
7 PM Sat 59 59 W 5 8833 8707 3807 Blue 18
8 PM Sat 56 56 NW 3 8713 8455 3555 Blue 15
9 PM Sat 54 54 NW 3 8634 7775 2875 Blue 13
10 PM Sat 51 51 N 3 7811 7483 2583 Blue 10
11 PM Sat 49 49 N 3 7533 7394 2494 Blue 8
12 Midnight Sun 47 47 N 3 7444 7160 2260 Blue 6
1 AM Sun 46 46 N 3 7399 6833 1933 Blue 5
2 AM Sun 45 45 N 5 7354 5973 1073 Blue 4
3 AM Sun 45 45 N 5 7354 5973 1073 Blue 4
4 AM Sun 45 45 NE 5 7354 5973 1073 Blue 4
5 AM Sun 46 46 NE 5 7399 6833 1933 Blue 5
6 AM Sun 48 48 NE 5 7488 7350 2450 Blue 7
7 AM Sun 50 50 NE 5 7652 7439 2539 Blue 9
8 AM Sun 52 52 NE 5 8160 7528 2628 Blue 11
9 AM Sun 55 55 NE 5 8673 8113 3213 Blue 14
10 AM Sun 57 58 E 3 8793 8667 3767 Blue 17
11 AM Sun 60 62 E 3 9025 8826 3926 Blue 21
12 Noon Sun 61 63 E 3 9110 8866 3966 Blue 22
1 PM Sun 63 65 E 2 9477 9011 4111 Blue 24
2 PM Sun 64 66 E 2 9679 9096 4196 Blue 25
3 PM Sun 64 65 E 2 9477 9011 4111 Blue 24
4 PM Sun 64 64 E 2 9275 8927 4027 Blue 23
5 PM Sun 63 63 E 2 9110 8866 3966 Blue 22
6 PM Sun 62 62 E 2 9025 8826 3926 Blue 21
7 PM Sun 60 60 E 3 8873 8747 3847 Blue 19
8 PM Sun 58 58 NE 5 8793 8667 3767 Blue 17
9 PM Sun 56 56 NE 6 8713 8455 3555 Blue 15
10 PM Sun 54 54 NE 6 8634 7775 2875 Blue 13
11 PM Sun 51 51 NE 7 7811 7483 2583 Blue 10
12 Midnight Mon 49 49 NE 7 7533 7394 2494 Blue 8
1 AM Mon 48 48 NE 8 7488 7350 2450 Blue 7
2 AM Mon 47 47 NE 8 7444 7160 2260 Blue 6
3 AM Mon 46 46 NE 8 7399 6833 1933 Blue 5
4 AM Mon 46 46 NE 8 7399 6833 1933 Blue 5

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com