Detailed Predictions for: The Y
Launch Altitude (f): 4900
LZ Altitude (f): 3150
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 54 54 NE 8 4074 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 54 54 NE 8 4074 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 53 53 N 8 4021 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 56 56 N 8 4179 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 61 62 N 7 5035 4900 0 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 65 67 W 6 5953 5287 387 Blue 8
11 AM Wed 68 71 W 6 7882 6195 1295 Blue 12
12 Noon Wed 70 73 W 7 9796 7122 2222 Blue 14
1 PM Wed 71 74 W 8 10683 7803 2903 Blue 15
2 PM Wed 72 74 W 9 10683 7803 2903 Blue 15
3 PM Wed 72 73 W 9 9796 7122 2222 Blue 14
4 PM Wed 71 71 W 8 7882 6195 1295 Blue 12
5 PM Wed 67 67 W 8 5953 5287 387 Blue 8
6 PM Wed 62 62 W 8 5035 4900 0 Blue 3
7 PM Wed 58 58 NW 8 4284 4900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 58 58 N 8 4284 4900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 56 56 N 8 4179 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 56 56 N 7 4179 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 55 55 N 7 4126 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 55 55 N 7 4126 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 55 55 NE 7 4126 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 55 NE 7 4126 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 52 52 NE 7 3980 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 52 52 NE 8 3980 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 52 52 NE 8 3980 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 51 51 NE 8 3980 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 51 51 NE 8 3980 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 54 54 NE 8 4074 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 60 60 E 7 4586 4900 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 66 67 SE 7 5953 5287 387 Blue 8
11 AM Thu 67 68 S 6 6212 5422 522 Blue 9
12 Noon Thu 68 69 S 6 6470 5681 781 Blue 10
1 PM Thu 70 71 S 7 7882 6195 1295 Blue 12
2 PM Thu 71 72 S 7 8895 6451 1551 Blue 13
3 PM Thu 71 71 S 7 7882 6195 1295 Blue 12
4 PM Thu 69 69 S 6 6470 5681 781 Blue 10
5 PM Thu 67 67 S 6 5953 5287 387 Blue 8
6 PM Thu 63 63 S 6 5187 4900 0 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 59 59 E 6 4375 4900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 56 56 E 6 4179 4900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 56 56 E 7 4179 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 56 56 NE 7 4179 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 56 56 NE 8 4179 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 56 56 NE 8 4179 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 56 56 NE 9 4179 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 55 55 NE 9 4126 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 54 54 NE 9 4074 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 54 54 NE 10 4074 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 54 54 NE 10 4074 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 53 53 NE 12 4021 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 53 53 NE 12 4021 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 55 55 NE 12 4126 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 59 59 E 10 4375 4900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 63 63 E 8 5187 4900 0 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 68 68 SE 7 6212 5422 522 Blue 9
12 Noon Fri 70 71 SE 7 7882 6195 1295 Blue 12
1 PM Fri 72 73 S 8 9796 7122 2222 Blue 14
2 PM Fri 72 73 S 8 9796 7122 2222 Blue 14
3 PM Fri 72 72 S 8 8895 6451 1551 Blue 13
4 PM Fri 70 70 S 7 7189 5939 1039 Blue 11
5 PM Fri 68 68 S 7 6212 5422 522 Blue 9
6 PM Fri 65 65 SW 7 5432 5026 126 Blue 6
7 PM Fri 62 62 NW 6 5035 4900 0 Blue 3
8 PM Fri 59 59 N 6 4375 4900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 58 58 N 6 4284 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 58 58 N 7 4284 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 58 58 N 8 4284 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 58 58 NE 8 4284 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 57 57 NE 9 4231 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 57 57 NE 9 4231 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 56 56 NE 9 4179 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 56 56 NE 10 4179 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 56 56 NE 10 4179 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 55 55 NE 10 4126 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 55 55 NE 10 4126 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 57 57 NE 10 4231 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 61 61 N 9 4797 4900 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 66 67 N 7 5953 5287 387 Blue 8
11 AM Sat 70 72 NW 6 8895 6451 1551 Blue 13
12 Noon Sat 73 76 NW 7 11024 9639 4739 Blue 17
1 PM Sat 74 77 W 8 11167 10496 5596 Blue 18
2 PM Sat 74 76 W 9 11024 9639 4739 Blue 17
3 PM Sat 73 74 W 9 10683 7803 2903 Blue 15
4 PM Sat 72 72 W 9 8895 6451 1551 Blue 13
5 PM Sat 69 69 W 8 6470 5681 781 Blue 10
6 PM Sat 66 66 NW 8 5693 5184 284 Blue 7
7 PM Sat 62 62 NW 8 5035 4900 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sat 60 60 NW 8 4586 4900 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sat 58 58 N 9 4284 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 58 58 N 10 4284 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 58 58 N 12 4284 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 58 58 N 13 4284 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 57 57 NE 13 4231 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 56 56 NE 14 4179 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 55 55 NE 15 4126 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 54 54 NE 15 4074 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 54 54 NE 15 4074 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 53 53 NE 15 4021 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 53 53 NE 14 4021 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 55 55 NE 13 4126 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 59 60 NE 12 4586 4900 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 64 66 E 9 5693 5184 284 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 68 71 E 8 7882 6195 1295 Blue 12
12 Noon Sun 71 74 NE 8 10683 7803 2903 Blue 15
1 PM Sun 72 75 N 9 10881 8759 3859 Blue 16
2 PM Sun 72 74 NW 9 10683 7803 2903 Blue 15
3 PM Sun 72 73 NW 9 9796 7122 2222 Blue 14
4 PM Sun 70 70 NW 8 7189 5939 1039 Blue 11
5 PM Sun 68 68 W 8 6212 5422 522 Blue 9
6 PM Sun 65 65 NW 8 5432 5026 126 Blue 6
7 PM Sun 61 61 NW 8 4797 4900 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sun 58 58 NW 8 4284 4900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 57 57 N 9 4231 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 57 57 N 9 4231 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 57 57 N 10 4231 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 56 56 N 10 4179 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 55 55 NE 10 4126 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 54 54 NE 10 4074 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 54 54 NE 12 4074 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 54 54 NE 13 4074 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 53 53 N 13 4021 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 53 53 N 13 4021 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 54 54 N 12 4074 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 56 56 N 10 4179 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 60 61 N 9 4797 4900 0 Blue 2
10 AM Mon 66 68 NW 8 6212 5422 522 Blue 9
11 AM Mon 70 73 NW 7 9796 7122 2222 Blue 14
12 Noon Mon 72 75 NW 7 10881 8759 3859 Blue 16
1 PM Mon 73 76 W 8 11024 9639 4739 Blue 17
2 PM Mon 73 75 W 8 10881 8759 3859 Blue 16
3 PM Mon 72 73 W 8 9796 7122 2222 Blue 14
4 PM Mon 71 71 W 7 7882 6195 1295 Blue 12
5 PM Mon 69 69 SW 7 6470 5681 781 Blue 10
6 PM Mon 65 65 W 7 5432 5026 126 Blue 6
7 PM Mon 62 62 W 6 5035 4900 0 Blue 3
8 PM Mon 59 59 W 6 4375 4900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 57 57 W 6 4231 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 56 56 W 7 4179 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 56 56 NW 8 4179 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 56 56 W 9 4179 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 55 55 S 9 4126 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 55 55 S 10 4126 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 54 54 S 10 4074 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 54 54 SE 12 4074 4900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com