Detailed Predictions for: The Y
Launch Altitude (f): 4900
LZ Altitude (f): 3150
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

16 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 81 81 NW 5 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 78 78 W 3 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 85 87 SW 3 5010 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 90 93 S 5 9755 7278 2378 Blue 6
10 AM Tue 93 99 S 7 14944 11630 6730 White 12
11 AM Tue 94 101 S 9 15358 15358 10458 White 14
12 Noon Tue 97 105 S 12 16165 16165 11265 White 18
1 PM Tue 99 108 S 15 16768 16768 11868 White 21
2 PM Tue 100 108 SW 16 16768 16768 11868 White 21
3 PM Tue 100 106 SW 18 16366 16366 11466 White 19
4 PM Tue 100 104 SW 18 15964 15964 11064 White 17
5 PM Tue 100 102 SW 18 15560 15560 10660 White 15
6 PM Tue 99 100 SW 17 15152 14150 9250 White 13
7 PM Tue 98 98 SW 17 14735 11098 6198 White 11
8 PM Tue 95 95 SW 15 11217 8899 3999 Blue 8
9 PM Tue 92 92 SW 14 9011 6362 1462 Blue 5
10 PM Tue 89 89 SW 12 6428 4900 0 Blue 2
11 PM Tue 86 86 SW 9 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 85 85 SW 7 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 83 83 SW 6 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 82 82 SW 6 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 80 80 S 5 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 79 79 S 6 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 78 78 S 6 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 77 77 SE 7 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 76 76 SE 8 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 79 81 SE 9 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 81 84 S 10 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 84 89 S 12 6428 4900 0 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 86 93 S 13 9755 7278 2378 Blue 6
12 Noon Wed 88 96 S 14 11755 9632 4732 Blue 9
1 PM Wed 90 98 S 15 14735 11098 6198 White 11
2 PM Wed 91 99 S 16 14944 11630 6730 White 12
3 PM Wed 93 99 S 17 14944 11630 6730 White 12
4 PM Wed 94 98 SW 17 14735 11098 6198 White 11
5 PM Wed 94 96 SW 16 11755 9632 4732 Blue 9
6 PM Wed 94 94 SW 16 10458 8118 3218 Blue 7
7 PM Wed 92 92 SW 15 9011 6362 1462 Blue 5
8 PM Wed 90 90 SW 13 7363 4994 94 Blue 3
9 PM Wed 87 87 SW 12 5010 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 85 85 SW 9 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 83 83 S 7 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 81 81 S 5 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 80 80 S 5 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 78 78 S 5 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 77 77 SE 5 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 76 76 SE 5 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 75 75 SE 5 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 75 75 SE 5 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 76 76 SE 6 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 79 80 SE 7 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 81 84 SE 8 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 84 89 S 9 6428 4900 0 Blue 2
11 AM Thu 86 92 S 9 9011 6362 1462 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 88 94 S 10 10458 8118 3218 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 90 96 S 10 11755 9632 4732 Blue 9
2 PM Thu 91 97 SW 13 14526 10326 5426 White 10
3 PM Thu 92 97 SW 13 14526 10326 5426 White 10
4 PM Thu 93 96 SW 14 11755 9632 4732 Blue 9
5 PM Thu 93 94 SW 14 10458 8118 3218 Blue 7
6 PM Thu 92 92 SW 13 9011 6362 1462 Blue 5
7 PM Thu 91 91 SW 13 8218 5614 714 Blue 4
8 PM Thu 89 89 SW 10 6428 4900 0 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 87 87 SW 9 5010 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 85 85 SW 8 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 83 83 W 7 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 81 81 W 6 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 80 80 W 5 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 79 79 W 3 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 78 78 NW 3 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 77 77 N 3 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 76 76 E 5 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 76 76 SE 6 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 78 78 SE 6 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 81 82 SE 7 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 84 87 S 8 5010 4900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 87 92 S 8 9011 6362 1462 Blue 5
11 AM Fri 89 95 S 9 11217 8899 3999 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 90 97 S 9 14526 10326 5426 White 10
1 PM Fri 92 99 S 10 14944 11630 6730 White 12
2 PM Fri 93 100 SW 12 15152 14150 9250 White 13
3 PM Fri 93 98 SW 13 14735 11098 6198 White 11
4 PM Fri 94 97 SW 13 14526 10326 5426 White 10
5 PM Fri 94 96 SW 13 11755 9632 4732 Blue 9
6 PM Fri 93 93 SW 13 9755 7278 2378 Blue 6
7 PM Fri 91 91 SW 13 8218 5614 714 Blue 4
8 PM Fri 89 89 SW 12 6428 4900 0 Blue 2
9 PM Fri 86 86 W 9 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 84 84 W 8 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 82 82 W 7 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 81 81 W 6 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 80 80 W 5 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 79 79 SW 5 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 77 77 SW 5 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 76 76 S 5 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 75 75 S 5 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 75 75 S 5 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 77 77 S 6 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 80 81 S 6 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 84 87 S 7 5010 4900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 86 90 S 8 7363 4994 94 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 88 94 S 9 10458 8118 3218 Blue 7
12 Noon Sat 90 96 S 10 11755 9632 4732 Blue 9
1 PM Sat 91 97 S 12 14526 10326 5426 White 10
2 PM Sat 92 98 S 13 14735 11098 6198 White 11
3 PM Sat 93 98 SW 13 14735 11098 6198 White 11
4 PM Sat 94 97 SW 14 14526 10326 5426 White 10
5 PM Sat 94 95 SW 14 11217 8899 3999 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 93 93 SW 14 9755 7278 2378 Blue 6
7 PM Sat 91 91 SW 13 8218 5614 714 Blue 4
8 PM Sat 89 89 SW 12 6428 4900 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sat 86 86 SW 9 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 84 84 SW 8 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 82 82 SW 7 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 81 81 SW 6 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 80 80 SW 5 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 79 79 S 5 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 78 78 S 5 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 77 77 S 5 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 75 75 SE 5 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 75 75 SE 6 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 77 77 SE 6 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 80 81 SE 7 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 82 84 S 7 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 84 87 S 8 5010 4900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 85 89 S 8 6428 4900 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sun 86 90 S 9 7363 4994 94 Blue 3
1 PM Sun 88 92 S 9 9011 6362 1462 Blue 5
2 PM Sun 89 93 SW 10 9755 7278 2378 Blue 6
3 PM Sun 91 94 SW 12 10458 8118 3218 Blue 7
4 PM Sun 91 93 SW 12 9755 7278 2378 Blue 6
5 PM Sun 91 92 SW 12 9011 6362 1462 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 90 90 SW 12 7363 4994 94 Blue 3
7 PM Sun 88 88 W 12 5641 4900 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 86 86 W 10 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 84 84 W 9 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 83 83 W 8 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 82 82 W 7 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 81 81 W 7 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 80 80 W 6 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 79 79 W 5 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 78 78 NW 5 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 77 77 NW 5 3658 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 76 76 NW 5 3658 4900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com