Detailed Predictions for: The Y
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.1885, -112.7558, 4900
LZ Altitude (f): 3150
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 52 52 SW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 51 51 W 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 50 50 NW 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 49 49 N 7 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 48 48 NNW 7 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 46 46 NW 7 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 45 45 NW 7 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 43 43 SSW 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 42 42 ESE 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 41 42 N 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 46 48 NNE 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 50 54 NNE 12 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 55 60 NE 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 57 62 E 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 58 62 SE 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 60 63 S 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 60 61 SSW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 60 60 SSW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 60 60 SW 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 58 58 SW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 56 56 SW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 55 55 WSW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 52 52 W 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 49 49 NW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 46 46 NNW 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 45 45 WSW 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 44 44 SE 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 43 43 NE 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 43 43 NE 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 42 42 ENE 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 41 41 E 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 42 42 S 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 43 43 WSW 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 44 44 NNW 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 48 50 NW 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 52 55 WNW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 56 61 W 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 58 63 WNW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 60 64 WNW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 61 64 WNW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 61 62 WNW 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 61 61 WNW 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 61 61 WNW 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 59 59 WNW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 56 56 WNW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 54 54 NW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 51 51 NW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 49 49 NW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 47 47 NNW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 46 46 SW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 45 45 ESE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 45 45 NNE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 43 43 NNE 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 42 42 NE 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 41 41 NE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 43 43 ENE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 44 44 E 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 45 46 ESE 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 50 52 SE 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 54 58 SSE 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 58 63 SSE 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 60 65 S 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 61 65 S 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 62 65 SSW 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 62 63 SSW 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 62 62 SW 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 62 62 SW 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 60 60 WSW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 58 58 WSW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 57 57 W 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 53 53 WSW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 50 50 WSW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com