Detailed Predictions for: The Y
Launch Altitude (f): 4900
LZ Altitude (f): 3150
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

19 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 45 45 NE 10 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 45 45 NE 10 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 45 45 NE 12 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 49 49 NE 10 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 57 57 NE 9 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 64 66 E 6 5624 4900 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 68 70 E 3 9558 5780 880 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 69 72 SE 3 9733 7016 2116 Blue 8
1 PM Sun 69 72 SE 3 9733 7016 2116 Blue 8
2 PM Sun 70 72 SW 5 9733 7016 2116 Blue 8
3 PM Sun 70 71 W 6 9645 6273 1373 Blue 7
4 PM Sun 69 69 W 7 7083 5617 717 Blue 6
5 PM Sun 66 66 W 8 5624 4900 0 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 60 60 W 7 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 56 56 W 5 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 54 54 S 2 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 52 52 E 3 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 52 52 SE 3 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 52 52 SE 5 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 50 50 SE 5 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 50 50 SE 5 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 51 51 E 5 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 50 50 E 5 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 50 50 E 3 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 49 49 E 5 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 49 49 E 5 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 48 48 E 6 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 52 52 E 6 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 60 60 E 3 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 65 66 E 2 5624 4900 0 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 68 70 E 1 9558 5780 880 Blue 7
12 Noon Mon 69 71 SW 2 9645 6273 1373 Blue 7
1 PM Mon 70 72 W 5 9733 7016 2116 Blue 8
2 PM Mon 70 71 W 7 9645 6273 1373 Blue 7
3 PM Mon 70 71 W 7 9645 6273 1373 Blue 7
4 PM Mon 69 69 W 8 7083 5617 717 Blue 6
5 PM Mon 66 66 W 7 5624 4900 0 Blue 3
6 PM Mon 63 63 W 6 4564 4900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 59 59 W 3 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 57 57 W 2 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 56 56 N 2 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 56 56 NE 3 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 56 56 NE 3 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 55 55 NE 5 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 55 55 NE 6 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 55 55 NE 7 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 54 54 NE 7 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 54 54 NE 7 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 53 53 NE 7 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 53 53 NE 6 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 53 53 NE 6 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 57 57 NE 5 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 65 65 NE 3 5460 4900 0 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 71 72 NE 3 9733 7016 2116 Blue 8
11 AM Tue 74 76 NE 3 10532 9805 4905 Blue 12
12 Noon Tue 75 77 NE 6 10625 9902 5002 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 76 78 N 8 10786 10201 5301 Blue 14
2 PM Tue 76 77 NW 9 10625 9902 5002 Blue 13
3 PM Tue 76 77 NW 9 10625 9902 5002 Blue 13
4 PM Tue 75 75 NW 8 10341 9717 4817 Blue 11
5 PM Tue 72 72 NW 7 9733 7016 2116 Blue 8
6 PM Tue 68 68 NW 6 6325 5453 553 Blue 5
7 PM Tue 64 64 NW 6 5295 4900 0 Blue 1
8 PM Tue 62 62 N 6 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 61 61 N 7 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 61 61 N 7 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 61 61 N 7 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 59 59 N 7 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 59 59 NE 8 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 60 60 NE 8 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 59 59 NE 8 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 59 59 NE 8 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 58 58 NE 8 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 58 58 NE 7 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 57 57 NE 7 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 61 61 NE 6 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 69 69 NE 5 7083 5617 717 Blue 6
10 AM Wed 75 76 NE 5 10532 9805 4905 Blue 12
11 AM Wed 78 80 NE 5 11359 10605 5705 Blue 16
12 Noon Wed 79 82 NE 6 12144 10977 6077 Blue 18
1 PM Wed 80 82 N 7 12144 10977 6077 Blue 18
2 PM Wed 80 82 NW 8 12144 10977 6077 Blue 18
3 PM Wed 80 81 NW 8 11754 10734 5834 Blue 17
4 PM Wed 79 79 NW 8 11031 10513 5613 Blue 15
5 PM Wed 75 75 W 7 10341 9717 4817 Blue 11
6 PM Wed 70 70 NW 7 9558 5780 880 Blue 7
7 PM Wed 66 66 NW 7 5624 4900 0 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 63 63 N 7 4564 4900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 62 62 N 7 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 62 62 N 7 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 62 62 N 7 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 60 60 N 8 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 60 60 NE 8 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 60 60 NE 8 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 59 59 NE 8 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 59 59 NE 8 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 59 59 NE 8 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 58 58 NE 7 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 57 57 NE 6 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 62 62 NE 6 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 70 70 NE 5 9558 5780 880 Blue 7
10 AM Thu 76 77 NE 5 10625 9902 5002 Blue 13
11 AM Thu 79 81 NE 5 11754 10734 5834 Blue 17
12 Noon Thu 80 83 N 6 13123 11266 6366 Blue 19
1 PM Thu 81 84 NW 7 14115 11657 6757 Blue 20
2 PM Thu 81 83 NW 7 13123 11266 6366 Blue 19
3 PM Thu 81 82 W 8 12144 10977 6077 Blue 18
4 PM Thu 80 80 W 7 11359 10605 5705 Blue 16
5 PM Thu 76 76 W 7 10532 9805 4905 Blue 12
6 PM Thu 70 70 W 7 9558 5780 880 Blue 7
7 PM Thu 66 66 NW 6 5624 4900 0 Blue 3
8 PM Thu 63 63 NW 6 4564 4900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 61 61 N 5 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 61 61 N 5 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 62 62 N 5 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 59 59 N 5 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 59 59 NE 5 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 60 60 NE 5 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 58 58 E 5 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 58 58 E 5 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 58 58 E 6 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 57 57 E 6 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 56 56 SE 5 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 60 60 SE 5 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 68 68 S 5 6325 5453 553 Blue 5
10 AM Fri 73 74 S 6 9922 9630 4730 Blue 10
11 AM Fri 76 78 S 6 10786 10201 5301 Blue 14
12 Noon Fri 77 80 S 7 11359 10605 5705 Blue 16
1 PM Fri 77 79 SW 8 11031 10513 5613 Blue 15
2 PM Fri 78 80 SW 9 11359 10605 5705 Blue 16
3 PM Fri 78 79 SW 9 11031 10513 5613 Blue 15
4 PM Fri 77 77 SW 8 10625 9902 5002 Blue 13
5 PM Fri 73 73 SW 7 9821 9542 4642 Blue 9
6 PM Fri 68 68 SW 6 6325 5453 553 Blue 5
7 PM Fri 64 64 S 6 5295 4900 0 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 62 62 S 5 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 60 60 SE 5 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 60 60 E 5 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 60 60 E 5 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 58 58 E 5 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 59 59 E 5 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 59 59 E 5 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 58 58 SE 6 3930 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 58 58 SE 6 3930 4900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com