Detailed Predictions for: The Y
Launch Altitude (f): 4900
LZ Altitude (f): 3150
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

26 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 53 53 E 8 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 52 52 E 7 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 51 51 E 5 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 58 59 E 5 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 65 67 SE 5 4507 4900 0 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 69 71 S 7 5791 4900 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Tue 72 75 S 8 9074 6247 1347 Blue 9
1 PM Tue 73 75 S 9 9074 6247 1347 Blue 9
2 PM Tue 75 76 S 10 9850 6717 1817 Blue 10
3 PM Tue 76 77 S 10 10655 7177 2277 Blue 11
4 PM Tue 76 76 SW 10 9850 6717 1817 Blue 10
5 PM Tue 75 75 SW 9 9074 6247 1347 Blue 9
6 PM Tue 73 73 SW 8 6755 5275 375 Blue 7
7 PM Tue 69 69 SW 7 4862 4900 0 Blue 3
8 PM Tue 65 65 S 6 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 62 62 S 5 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 61 61 S 5 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 60 60 NE 3 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 58 58 N 5 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 57 57 E 6 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 56 56 NE 6 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 56 56 NE 6 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 54 54 E 6 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 54 54 NE 6 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 53 53 E 7 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 53 53 E 6 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 53 53 E 6 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 59 60 E 7 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 64 66 SE 8 4239 4900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 69 72 S 9 6278 4900 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Wed 71 74 S 12 7220 5767 867 Blue 8
1 PM Wed 71 73 S 12 6755 5275 375 Blue 7
2 PM Wed 72 73 S 13 6755 5275 375 Blue 7
3 PM Wed 73 73 S 13 6755 5275 375 Blue 7
4 PM Wed 73 73 S 12 6755 5275 375 Blue 7
5 PM Wed 72 72 S 12 6278 4900 0 Blue 6
6 PM Wed 70 70 S 10 5293 4900 0 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 67 67 S 9 4507 4900 0 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 64 64 S 8 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 61 61 S 8 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 59 59 S 7 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 58 58 S 7 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 57 57 SW 7 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 55 55 SW 7 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 54 54 W 6 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 52 52 NW 6 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 50 50 NW 6 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 49 49 NW 7 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 49 49 N 7 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 50 50 NW 7 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 52 53 NW 6 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 56 58 NW 6 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 59 63 NW 7 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 63 68 W 8 4579 4900 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Thu 66 72 SW 10 6278 4900 0 Blue 6
1 PM Thu 68 73 SW 12 6755 5275 375 Blue 7
2 PM Thu 69 73 SW 12 6755 5275 375 Blue 7
3 PM Thu 70 73 W 13 6755 5275 375 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 70 71 W 14 5791 4900 0 Blue 5
5 PM Thu 69 69 W 15 4862 4900 0 Blue 3
6 PM Thu 68 68 W 15 4579 4900 0 Blue 2
7 PM Thu 65 65 W 14 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 61 61 W 12 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 58 58 W 10 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 56 56 W 10 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 55 55 W 12 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 55 55 W 12 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 54 54 NW 10 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 52 52 NW 10 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 50 50 NW 9 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 49 49 NW 10 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 47 47 NW 10 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 47 47 NW 10 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 48 48 NW 10 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 50 51 NW 10 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 53 55 NW 10 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 57 61 NW 9 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 60 65 NW 9 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 63 69 NW 9 4862 4900 0 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 66 72 NW 10 6278 4900 0 Blue 6
2 PM Fri 67 72 NW 12 6278 4900 0 Blue 6
3 PM Fri 68 72 NW 13 6278 4900 0 Blue 6
4 PM Fri 69 71 W 14 5791 4900 0 Blue 5
5 PM Fri 69 69 W 14 4862 4900 0 Blue 3
6 PM Fri 67 67 W 14 4507 4900 0 Blue 1
7 PM Fri 65 65 W 13 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 61 61 NW 13 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 58 58 NW 12 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 56 56 NW 12 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 55 55 NW 12 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 54 54 NW 12 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 53 53 N 12 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 52 52 N 12 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 51 51 N 12 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 50 50 N 13 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 48 48 N 13 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 48 48 N 13 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 49 49 N 12 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 51 51 N 10 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 55 57 N 10 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 59 63 N 9 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 63 68 N 9 4579 4900 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sat 66 72 N 8 6278 4900 0 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 68 74 N 8 7220 5767 867 Blue 8
2 PM Sat 70 75 N 8 9074 6247 1347 Blue 9
3 PM Sat 71 74 N 8 7220 5767 867 Blue 8
4 PM Sat 71 73 N 9 6755 5275 375 Blue 7
5 PM Sat 71 71 NW 9 5791 4900 0 Blue 5
6 PM Sat 69 69 NW 9 4862 4900 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 67 67 NW 9 4507 4900 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sat 63 63 N 9 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 60 60 N 9 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 58 58 N 10 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 56 56 N 10 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 55 55 N 10 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 54 54 N 12 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 53 53 N 12 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 51 51 N 13 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 50 50 N 13 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 49 49 NE 14 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 49 49 NE 14 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 50 50 NE 13 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 52 53 NE 13 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 55 57 NE 12 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 59 63 NE 10 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 63 68 NE 10 4579 4900 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sun 66 72 NE 9 6278 4900 0 Blue 6
1 PM Sun 69 75 NE 9 9074 6247 1347 Blue 9
2 PM Sun 70 75 NE 9 9074 6247 1347 Blue 9
3 PM Sun 71 75 N 9 9074 6247 1347 Blue 9
4 PM Sun 72 74 N 9 7220 5767 867 Blue 8
5 PM Sun 72 72 N 9 6278 4900 0 Blue 6
6 PM Sun 70 70 N 9 5293 4900 0 Blue 4
7 PM Sun 68 68 N 8 4579 4900 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sun 64 64 N 7 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 61 61 N 7 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 60 60 N 6 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 59 59 N 5 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 58 58 N 5 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 57 57 N 5 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 55 55 NE 5 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 53 53 NE 5 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 52 52 NE 6 3914 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 51 51 NE 7 3914 4900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com