Detailed Predictions for: The Y
Launch Altitude (f): 4900
LZ Altitude (f): 3150
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 43 43 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 43 43 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 43 43 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 44 44 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 47 47 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 51 52 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 54 55 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 56 57 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 56 57 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 56 57 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 55 55 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 55 55 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 55 55 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 54 54 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 54 54 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 53 53 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 52 52 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 52 52 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 52 52 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 52 52 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 52 52 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 51 51 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 51 51 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 51 51 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 51 51 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 50 50 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 50 50 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 50 50 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 51 51 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 52 52 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 53 54 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 54 56 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 54 56 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 55 57 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 55 56 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 54 54 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 53 53 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 51 51 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 49 49 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 46 46 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 45 45 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 44 44 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 44 44 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 43 43 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 42 42 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 42 42 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 41 41 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 41 41 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 41 41 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 39 39 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 39 39 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 40 40 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 44 44 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 49 50 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 53 55 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 56 58 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 57 59 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 58 60 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 59 60 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 59 59 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 58 58 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 55 55 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 51 51 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 48 48 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 46 46 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 45 45 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 45 45 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 45 45 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 44 44 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 44 44 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 44 44 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 43 43 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 43 43 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 41 41 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 41 41 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 43 43 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 47 47 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 53 53 E 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 59 60 E 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 62 63 E 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 63 64 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 64 65 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 64 65 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 64 64 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 62 62 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 59 59 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 55 55 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 52 52 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 51 51 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 50 50 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 50 50 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 49 49 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 48 48 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 47 47 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 47 47 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 47 47 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 46 46 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 45 45 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 44 44 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 44 44 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 47 47 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 51 52 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 55 57 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 57 59 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 57 59 NW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 57 59 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 56 57 NW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 56 56 NW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 55 55 NW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 52 52 NW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 50 50 NW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 47 47 N 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 46 46 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 44 44 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 43 43 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 42 42 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 42 42 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 41 41 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 41 41 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 40 40 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 39 39 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 38 38 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 37 37 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 38 38 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 41 41 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 45 46 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 49 51 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 51 53 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 52 54 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 53 55 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 53 54 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 53 53 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 52 52 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 49 49 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 45 45 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 43 43 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 41 41 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 41 41 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 40 40 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 40 40 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 39 39 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 38 38 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 37 37 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 37 37 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com