Detailed Predictions for: The Y
Launch Altitude (f): 4900
LZ Altitude (f): 3150
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

1 DEC 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 48 48 N 7 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 47 47 N 7 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 46 46 N 7 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 49 49 N 8 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 54 54 N 8 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 59 60 N 8 5871 4900 0 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 62 64 N 8 6495 5981 1081 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 64 66 N 10 6831 6316 1416 Blue 9
1 PM Tue 65 67 NW 12 7191 6483 1583 Blue 10
2 PM Tue 66 68 NW 13 7551 6650 1750 Blue 11
3 PM Tue 65 66 NW 13 6831 6316 1416 Blue 9
4 PM Tue 64 64 N 13 6495 5981 1081 Blue 7
5 PM Tue 59 59 N 12 5763 4900 0 Blue 2
6 PM Tue 55 55 N 10 4244 4900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 52 52 NE 9 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 51 51 NE 8 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 50 50 NE 9 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 50 50 NE 9 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 49 49 NE 10 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 48 48 NE 10 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 48 48 NE 10 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 47 47 NE 9 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 46 46 NE 9 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 46 46 N 9 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 45 45 N 9 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 43 43 N 9 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 42 42 NE 8 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 44 44 NE 8 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 50 50 N 7 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 53 54 NW 5 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 55 57 W 5 4898 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 57 59 W 6 5763 4900 0 Blue 2
1 PM Wed 59 61 W 7 5991 5564 664 Blue 4
2 PM Wed 59 61 W 8 5991 5564 664 Blue 4
3 PM Wed 58 59 W 9 5763 4900 0 Blue 2
4 PM Wed 56 56 W 9 4573 4900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 53 53 W 9 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 50 50 NW 9 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 48 48 N 8 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 46 46 N 9 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 45 45 N 10 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 45 45 N 14 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 45 45 NE 16 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 44 44 NE 17 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 44 44 NE 18 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 43 43 NE 18 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 42 42 NE 18 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 42 42 NE 17 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 41 41 NE 16 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 40 40 NE 15 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 39 39 NE 15 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 40 40 NE 15 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 42 42 NE 15 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 46 47 NE 15 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 49 51 NE 15 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 51 53 NE 15 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 53 55 NE 15 4244 4900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 53 55 NE 14 4244 4900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 52 53 NE 14 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 51 51 NE 14 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 49 49 NE 14 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 47 47 NE 14 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 45 45 NE 14 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 43 43 NE 14 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 43 43 NE 14 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 43 43 NE 14 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 43 43 NE 14 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 43 43 NE 14 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 42 42 NE 15 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 42 42 NE 15 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 42 42 NE 15 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 41 41 NE 16 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 41 41 NE 16 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 40 40 NE 15 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 40 40 NE 15 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 41 41 NE 14 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 44 44 NE 13 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 48 49 NE 12 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 51 53 NE 10 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 54 56 NE 10 4573 4900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 55 57 NE 10 4898 4900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 56 58 NE 10 5601 4900 0 Blue 1
3 PM Fri 55 56 NE 10 4573 4900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 53 53 NE 9 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 51 51 NE 9 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 49 49 NE 9 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 47 47 NE 9 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 45 45 NE 9 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 45 45 NE 10 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 45 45 NE 10 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 45 45 NE 12 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 45 45 NE 12 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 44 44 NE 13 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 44 44 NE 13 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 44 44 NE 13 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 44 44 NE 14 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 44 44 NE 14 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 43 43 NE 14 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 43 43 NE 13 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 44 44 NE 12 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 47 47 NE 12 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 52 53 NE 10 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 56 58 E 10 5601 4900 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sat 59 61 E 10 5991 5564 664 Blue 4
1 PM Sat 60 62 E 9 6159 5757 857 Blue 5
2 PM Sat 60 62 E 9 6159 5757 857 Blue 5
3 PM Sat 59 60 E 8 5871 4900 0 Blue 3
4 PM Sat 57 57 NE 7 4898 4900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 54 54 NE 7 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 52 52 NE 7 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 50 50 NE 7 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 48 48 NE 8 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 47 47 NE 9 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 47 47 NE 10 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 47 47 NE 12 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 47 47 NE 12 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 47 47 NE 12 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 47 47 NE 12 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 46 46 NE 12 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 46 46 NE 12 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 45 45 NE 12 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 44 44 NE 12 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 44 44 NE 12 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 45 45 NE 12 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 48 48 NE 10 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 52 53 NE 10 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 56 58 NE 9 5601 4900 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sun 58 60 NE 9 5871 4900 0 Blue 3
1 PM Sun 60 62 E 8 6159 5757 857 Blue 5
2 PM Sun 60 61 E 8 5991 5564 664 Blue 4
3 PM Sun 59 60 E 7 5871 4900 0 Blue 3
4 PM Sun 57 57 E 6 4898 4900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 55 55 E 6 4244 4900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 52 52 E 6 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 50 50 NE 7 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 48 48 NE 8 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 48 48 NE 9 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 48 48 NE 10 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 48 48 NE 12 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 48 48 NE 12 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 47 47 NE 12 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 47 47 NE 12 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 47 47 NE 12 4058 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 46 46 NE 13 4058 4900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com