Detailed Predictions for: Whetstone Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 5500
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 38 38 SE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 38 38 SE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 38 38 SE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 40 40 SE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 45 45 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 48 49 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 51 53 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 54 57 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 56 59 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 57 59 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 57 58 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 56 56 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 52 52 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 48 48 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 46 46 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 44 44 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 43 43 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 42 42 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 42 42 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 41 41 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 41 41 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 40 40 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 41 41 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 40 40 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 41 41 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 41 41 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 41 41 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 42 42 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 44 44 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 46 47 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 47 48 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 48 50 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 49 51 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 49 51 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 49 50 NW 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 48 48 NW 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 45 45 NW 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 40 40 NW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 39 39 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 37 37 NW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 36 36 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 35 35 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 35 35 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 34 34 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 34 34 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 33 33 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 33 33 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 33 33 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 34 34 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 34 34 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 34 34 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 35 35 E 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 41 41 E 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 43 44 E 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 46 49 E 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 48 51 E 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 50 53 E 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 51 54 E 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 51 52 E 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 50 50 E 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 47 47 E 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 42 42 E 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 41 41 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 40 40 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 38 38 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 38 38 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 38 38 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 37 37 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 37 37 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 36 36 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 36 36 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 36 36 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 37 37 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 37 37 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 37 37 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 39 39 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 45 45 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 48 49 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 51 53 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 54 56 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 56 58 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 57 58 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 57 58 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 56 56 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 52 52 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 47 47 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 46 46 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 44 44 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 42 42 SE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 41 41 SE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 41 41 SE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 40 40 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 40 40 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 39 39 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 40 40 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 39 39 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 40 40 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 40 40 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 40 40 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 41 41 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 46 46 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 49 50 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 51 53 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 53 55 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 55 57 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 56 58 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 56 57 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 54 54 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 49 49 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 42 42 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 40 40 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 37 37 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 35 35 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 34 34 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 34 34 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 32 32 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 32 32 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 31 31 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 31 31 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 31 31 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 32 32 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 32 32 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 32 32 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 33 33 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 37 37 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 39 40 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 41 43 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 43 46 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 45 48 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 45 47 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 45 46 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 44 44 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 41 41 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 36 36 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 35 35 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 33 33 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 32 32 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 31 31 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 31 31 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 30 30 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 30 30 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 30 30 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 30 30 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 30 30 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com