Detailed Predictions for: Whetstone Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 5500
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 62 62 NW 8 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 62 62 NW 8 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 66 66 NW 8 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 72 74 NW 8 7273 5900 0 Blue 1
10 AM Tue 73 76 N 8 8670 6490 590 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 76 80 N 8 12828 9312 3412 White 7
12 Noon Tue 78 82 N 8 13259 11311 5411 White 9
1 PM Tue 80 84 N 8 13688 13688 7788 White 11
2 PM Tue 81 84 N 8 13688 13688 7788 White 11
3 PM Tue 81 83 N 8 13473 13473 7573 White 10
4 PM Tue 81 82 N 9 13259 11311 5411 White 9
5 PM Tue 81 81 NW 12 13043 10098 4198 White 8
6 PM Tue 79 79 NW 13 11438 8625 2725 Blue 6
7 PM Tue 77 77 NW 13 9355 7248 1348 Blue 4
8 PM Tue 73 73 W 13 6498 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 70 70 W 13 5360 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 68 68 W 12 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 68 68 W 12 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 66 66 W 10 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 65 65 W 9 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 64 64 W 9 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 64 64 W 8 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 63 63 W 8 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 63 63 W 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 62 62 W 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 62 62 W 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 63 63 SW 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 64 64 SW 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 65 65 SW 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 66 66 SW 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 66 66 SW 8 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 67 67 SW 9 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 67 67 W 10 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 67 67 W 12 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 67 67 W 10 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 67 67 W 9 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 66 66 W 8 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 65 65 W 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 63 63 W 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 62 62 W 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 61 61 W 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 60 60 SW 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 60 60 SW 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 59 59 SW 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 59 59 SW 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 59 59 SW 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 58 W 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 58 58 NW 6 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 58 58 NW 6 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 58 58 NW 6 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 60 60 N 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 64 64 N 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 65 66 N 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 66 67 N 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 68 70 N 7 5360 5900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 69 71 N 7 5695 5900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 69 71 N 7 5695 5900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 69 70 N 7 5360 5900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 69 69 N 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 69 69 NW 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 68 68 W 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 67 67 W 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 64 64 W 8 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 62 62 W 8 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 62 62 W 8 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 61 61 W 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 60 60 W 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 59 59 W 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 59 59 W 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 59 59 W 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 58 58 W 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 58 58 W 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 58 58 W 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 58 58 NW 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 61 61 NW 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 67 68 NW 6 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 68 70 N 6 5360 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 70 73 N 6 6498 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 73 77 N 6 9355 7248 1348 Blue 4
1 PM Fri 74 78 N 6 10363 7963 2063 Blue 5
2 PM Fri 75 78 N 6 10363 7963 2063 Blue 5
3 PM Fri 76 78 N 7 10363 7963 2063 Blue 5
4 PM Fri 75 76 NW 7 8670 6490 590 Blue 3
5 PM Fri 75 75 NW 7 8003 6028 128 Blue 2
6 PM Fri 74 74 NW 7 7273 5900 0 Blue 1
7 PM Fri 72 72 NW 7 6027 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 68 68 NW 6 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 65 65 NW 6 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 64 64 N 6 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 63 63 N 5 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 62 62 N 5 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 61 61 N 5 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 60 60 N 5 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 60 60 N 5 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 59 59 N 5 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 59 59 NE 6 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 58 58 NE 6 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 58 58 NE 6 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 62 63 NE 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 68 70 NE 7 5360 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 70 73 E 8 6498 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 72 77 E 8 9355 7248 1348 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 75 80 E 8 12828 9312 3412 White 7
1 PM Sat 77 82 E 8 13259 11311 5411 White 9
2 PM Sat 78 82 E 7 13259 11311 5411 White 9
3 PM Sat 78 81 E 6 13043 10098 4198 White 8
4 PM Sat 78 79 E 6 11438 8625 2725 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 78 78 E 5 10363 7963 2063 Blue 5
6 PM Sat 76 76 E 5 8670 6490 590 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 74 74 E 5 7273 5900 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sat 70 70 E 6 5360 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 66 66 E 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 65 65 E 8 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 64 64 SE 8 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 63 63 SE 9 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 61 61 SE 9 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 61 61 SE 9 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 60 60 SE 8 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 59 59 E 8 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 59 59 E 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 58 58 E 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 58 58 E 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 63 64 E 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 70 72 E 8 6027 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 71 75 E 8 8003 6028 128 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 74 79 E 8 11438 8625 2725 Blue 6
12 Noon Sun 77 83 E 8 13473 13473 7573 White 10
1 PM Sun 79 84 SE 8 13688 13688 7788 White 11
2 PM Sun 80 84 S 7 13688 13688 7788 White 11
3 PM Sun 80 83 S 6 13473 13473 7573 White 10
4 PM Sun 80 81 SW 6 13043 10098 4198 White 8
5 PM Sun 80 80 W 5 12828 9312 3412 White 7
6 PM Sun 78 78 W 5 10363 7963 2063 Blue 5
7 PM Sun 75 75 W 5 8003 6028 128 Blue 2
8 PM Sun 71 71 W 5 5695 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 68 68 SW 6 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 66 66 SW 6 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 65 65 SW 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 64 64 SW 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 62 62 SW 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 62 62 SW 7 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 61 61 W 6 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 60 60 W 6 5197 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 60 60 W 5 5197 5900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com