Detailed Predictions for: Whetstone Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 5500
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

1 DEC 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 34 34 NW 5 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 34 34 NW 3 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 33 33 N 3 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 38 38 N 3 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 46 47 N 5 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 49 51 NW 6 6158 5958 58 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 52 55 NW 7 6863 6329 429 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 55 58 NW 9 7976 6855 955 Blue 3
1 PM Tue 56 59 NW 10 8347 7226 1326 Blue 4
2 PM Tue 56 58 NW 14 7976 6855 955 Blue 3
3 PM Tue 55 56 NW 14 7238 6501 601 Blue 1
4 PM Tue 53 53 NW 14 6503 5986 86 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 48 48 NW 14 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 44 44 NW 12 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 42 42 NW 10 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 40 40 N 9 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 39 39 N 9 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 38 38 N 9 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 37 37 N 8 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 37 37 NE 8 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 36 36 E 7 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 34 34 E 7 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 34 34 E 7 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 34 34 E 7 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 33 33 E 8 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 32 32 E 7 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 32 32 E 7 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 37 37 E 7 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 43 44 E 9 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 44 46 E 10 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 46 49 SE 10 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 49 52 S 10 6330 5958 58 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 52 55 SW 10 6863 6329 429 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 54 56 W 10 7238 6501 601 Blue 1
3 PM Wed 53 54 W 10 6675 6158 258 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 50 50 NW 10 5985 5958 58 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 46 46 N 9 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 43 43 N 8 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 39 39 N 6 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 37 37 N 5 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 35 35 NE 5 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 34 34 NE 5 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 33 33 E 6 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 32 32 E 7 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 32 32 E 8 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 31 31 E 9 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 30 30 E 10 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 29 29 E 10 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 28 28 E 10 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 28 28 E 12 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 29 29 E 13 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 30 30 E 14 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 32 32 E 15 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 35 36 E 17 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 37 39 E 18 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 40 42 E 20 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 42 44 E 20 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 43 45 E 20 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 42 43 E 20 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 40 40 E 18 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 38 38 E 17 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 36 36 E 16 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 33 33 E 15 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 31 31 E 14 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 30 30 E 14 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 30 30 E 14 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 29 29 E 14 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 29 29 E 14 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 28 28 E 14 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 28 28 E 14 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 27 27 E 14 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 27 27 E 13 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 27 27 E 13 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 27 27 E 13 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 28 28 E 13 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 30 30 E 13 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 32 32 E 14 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 34 35 E 14 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 37 39 E 15 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 40 43 E 16 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 42 44 E 16 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 44 46 E 16 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 43 44 E 15 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 42 42 E 14 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 40 40 E 13 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 37 37 E 12 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 34 34 E 10 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 32 32 E 10 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 31 31 E 10 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 31 31 E 10 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 31 31 E 10 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 31 31 E 10 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 31 31 E 10 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 31 31 E 10 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 30 30 E 10 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 30 30 E 10 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 30 30 E 10 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 30 30 E 10 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 31 31 E 10 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 33 33 E 10 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 36 36 E 12 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 39 40 E 14 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 42 44 E 15 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 45 47 E 16 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 47 49 E 16 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 48 50 E 16 5985 5958 58 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 48 49 E 16 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 46 46 E 15 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 43 43 E 14 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 40 40 E 13 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 37 37 E 12 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 35 35 E 10 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 34 34 E 10 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 33 33 E 10 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 32 32 E 10 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 33 33 E 10 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 33 33 E 9 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 33 33 E 9 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 32 32 E 9 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 32 32 E 9 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 31 31 E 9 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 32 32 E 8 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 33 33 E 8 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 35 35 E 8 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 37 37 E 9 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 40 41 E 12 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 43 45 E 14 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 46 48 E 14 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 49 51 E 14 6158 5958 58 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 50 52 E 14 6330 5958 58 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 49 50 E 14 5985 5958 58 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 47 47 E 13 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 44 44 E 13 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 41 41 E 12 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 38 38 E 12 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 35 35 E 10 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 34 34 E 10 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 33 33 E 9 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 33 33 E 9 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 33 33 E 9 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 33 33 E 9 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 32 32 E 9 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 32 32 E 9 5958 5958 58 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 32 32 E 8 5958 5958 58 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com