Detailed Predictions for: Whetstone Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 5500
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

26 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sun 48 48 S 15 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 49 50 S 16 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 54 56 S 20 6583 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 55 59 S 22 8305 6555 655 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 58 65 S 24 9761 8933 3033 Blue 9
11 AM Sun 61 69 S 28 13208 11982 6082 Blue 13
12 Noon Sun 63 72 SW 30 15392 13122 7222 White 16
1 PM Sun 64 73 SW 29 15599 13789 7889 White 17
2 PM Sun 66 73 SW 29 15599 13789 7889 White 17
3 PM Sun 67 73 SW 28 15599 13789 7889 White 17
4 PM Sun 67 70 SW 26 14189 12368 6468 Blue 14
5 PM Sun 67 68 SW 25 12830 9741 3841 Blue 12
6 PM Sun 66 66 SW 24 12056 9181 3281 Blue 10
7 PM Sun 63 63 SW 22 9220 8385 2485 Blue 7
8 PM Sun 60 60 SW 20 8391 7561 1661 Blue 4
9 PM Sun 56 56 SW 17 6583 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 53 53 SW 15 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 51 51 SW 14 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 49 49 SW 13 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 48 48 SW 14 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 47 47 SW 14 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 46 46 SW 15 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 45 45 SW 14 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 44 44 SW 14 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 44 44 SW 14 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 45 46 SW 15 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 50 52 SW 16 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 52 57 SW 17 7590 5900 0 Blue 1
10 AM Mon 55 62 SW 20 8949 8299 2399 Blue 6
11 AM Mon 58 66 SW 21 12056 9181 3281 Blue 10
12 Noon Mon 60 69 SW 23 13208 11982 6082 Blue 13
1 PM Mon 61 70 SW 23 14189 12368 6468 Blue 14
2 PM Mon 63 71 W 24 15184 12748 6848 White 15
3 PM Mon 64 70 W 24 14189 12368 6468 Blue 14
4 PM Mon 64 67 W 23 12446 9561 3661 Blue 11
5 PM Mon 64 65 W 23 9761 8933 3033 Blue 9
6 PM Mon 62 62 W 22 8949 8299 2399 Blue 6
7 PM Mon 60 60 W 20 8391 7561 1661 Blue 4
8 PM Mon 56 56 W 17 6583 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 52 52 W 15 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 50 50 W 14 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 47 47 W 12 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 45 45 W 10 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 44 44 W 9 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 43 43 W 8 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 42 42 W 8 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 41 41 W 7 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 40 40 NW 7 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 40 40 NW 7 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 41 42 W 7 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 48 50 W 7 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 50 54 W 7 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 54 59 W 7 8305 6555 655 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 58 64 W 8 9581 8663 2763 Blue 8
12 Noon Tue 62 69 W 8 13208 11982 6082 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 62 68 W 9 12830 9741 3841 Blue 12
2 PM Tue 65 69 W 10 13208 11982 6082 Blue 13
3 PM Tue 67 69 W 12 13208 11982 6082 Blue 13
4 PM Tue 67 68 W 13 12830 9741 3841 Blue 12
5 PM Tue 67 68 W 14 12830 9741 3841 Blue 12
6 PM Tue 65 65 W 14 9761 8933 3033 Blue 9
7 PM Tue 63 63 W 14 9220 8385 2485 Blue 7
8 PM Tue 59 59 W 13 8305 6555 655 Blue 3
9 PM Tue 56 56 W 12 6583 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 53 53 W 12 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 51 51 W 10 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 49 49 W 9 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 48 48 W 9 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 47 47 W 9 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 46 46 W 8 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 45 45 W 8 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 44 44 W 7 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 44 44 W 7 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 45 46 W 7 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 52 54 W 7 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 54 58 W 7 8219 5900 0 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 58 65 SW 7 9761 8933 3033 Blue 9
11 AM Wed 62 70 SW 8 14189 12368 6468 Blue 14
12 Noon Wed 65 74 SW 8 15806 15192 9292 White 18
1 PM Wed 66 74 SW 8 15806 15192 9292 White 18
2 PM Wed 69 76 SW 9 16219 16219 10319 White 20
3 PM Wed 70 75 W 9 16013 16013 10113 White 19
4 PM Wed 71 74 W 9 15806 15192 9292 White 18
5 PM Wed 70 71 W 10 15184 12748 6848 White 15
6 PM Wed 69 69 W 10 13208 11982 6082 Blue 13
7 PM Wed 67 67 W 10 12446 9561 3661 Blue 11
8 PM Wed 63 63 W 10 9220 8385 2485 Blue 7
9 PM Wed 59 59 W 10 8305 6555 655 Blue 3
10 PM Wed 57 57 W 10 7590 5900 0 Blue 1
11 PM Wed 54 54 W 9 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 52 52 W 9 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 52 52 W 9 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 51 51 SW 8 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 49 49 SW 8 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 48 48 S 8 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 48 48 S 7 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 48 48 S 7 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 49 50 S 8 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 56 58 S 8 8219 5900 0 Blue 2
9 AM Thu 58 63 S 9 9220 8385 2485 Blue 7
10 AM Thu 63 70 S 9 14189 12368 6468 Blue 14
11 AM Thu 67 75 S 10 16013 16013 10113 White 19
12 Noon Thu 70 79 S 12 16829 16829 10929 White 23
1 PM Thu 71 80 S 12 17032 17032 11132 White 24
2 PM Thu 74 81 S 13 17233 17233 11333 White 25
3 PM Thu 75 81 S 13 17233 17233 11333 White 25
4 PM Thu 76 79 SW 13 16829 16829 10929 White 23
5 PM Thu 75 76 SW 14 16219 16219 10319 White 20
6 PM Thu 74 74 SW 14 15806 15192 9292 White 18
7 PM Thu 71 71 SW 13 15184 12748 6848 White 15
8 PM Thu 67 67 SW 13 12446 9561 3661 Blue 11
9 PM Thu 63 63 SW 13 9220 8385 2485 Blue 7
10 PM Thu 60 60 SW 12 8391 7561 1661 Blue 4
11 PM Thu 57 57 W 10 7590 5900 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Fri 55 55 W 10 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 54 54 SW 9 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 53 53 SW 9 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 52 52 SW 8 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 51 51 SW 8 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 50 50 S 8 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 50 50 S 8 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 51 52 S 8 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 58 60 S 9 8391 7561 1661 Blue 4
9 AM Fri 60 64 S 9 9581 8663 2763 Blue 8
10 AM Fri 64 71 S 10 15184 12748 6848 White 15
11 AM Fri 68 76 S 12 16219 16219 10319 White 20
12 Noon Fri 71 80 S 13 17032 17032 11132 White 24
1 PM Fri 72 81 SW 13 17233 17233 11333 White 25
2 PM Fri 75 82 SW 14 17434 17434 11534 White 26
3 PM Fri 77 82 SW 14 17434 17434 11534 White 26
4 PM Fri 77 80 SW 15 17032 17032 11132 White 24
5 PM Fri 76 77 SW 15 16424 16424 10524 White 21
6 PM Fri 75 75 SW 16 16013 16013 10113 White 19
7 PM Fri 72 72 SW 15 15392 13122 7222 White 16
8 PM Fri 68 68 SW 14 12830 9741 3841 Blue 12
9 PM Fri 64 64 SW 13 9581 8663 2763 Blue 8
10 PM Fri 61 61 SW 12 8688 8180 2280 Blue 5
11 PM Fri 58 58 SW 12 8219 5900 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sat 56 56 SW 10 6583 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 55 55 SW 10 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 54 54 SW 9 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 53 53 SW 9 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 52 52 SW 8 4793 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 51 51 S 8 4793 5900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com