Detailed Predictions for: Whetstone Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 5500
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

17 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 36 36 E 12 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 36 36 E 12 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 36 36 E 12 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 37 37 E 12 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 42 42 E 12 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 45 46 E 12 5298 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 47 49 E 12 5840 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 50 53 E 10 6558 6020 120 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 51 54 E 10 6737 6199 299 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 54 56 E 9 7437 6556 656 Blue 1
3 PM Wed 52 53 E 9 6558 6020 120 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 51 51 NE 9 6199 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 48 48 NE 9 5659 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 44 44 NE 9 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 42 42 E 9 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 41 41 E 9 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 39 39 E 9 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 39 39 E 9 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 39 39 E 8 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 39 39 E 9 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 40 40 E 9 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 39 39 E 9 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 39 39 E 9 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 38 38 E 9 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 37 37 E 9 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 37 37 E 9 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 38 38 E 9 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 39 39 E 9 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 44 44 E 10 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 48 50 E 10 6020 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 51 54 E 10 6737 6199 299 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 54 57 E 10 8024 6734 834 Blue 2
1 PM Thu 56 59 E 8 10485 7413 1513 Blue 4
2 PM Thu 59 61 E 7 13068 9672 3772 Blue 6
3 PM Thu 57 58 E 7 9755 6912 1012 Blue 3
4 PM Thu 56 56 E 6 7437 6556 656 Blue 1
5 PM Thu 53 53 E 6 6558 6020 120 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 50 50 E 6 6020 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 47 47 E 7 5479 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 46 46 E 7 5298 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 44 44 E 7 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 44 44 SE 8 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 44 44 SE 8 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 44 44 S 8 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 45 45 S 8 5117 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 44 44 S 8 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 44 44 S 8 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 43 43 S 8 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 42 42 S 8 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 42 42 S 8 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 43 43 S 9 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 44 44 S 9 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 50 50 S 10 6020 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 54 55 SW 12 6916 6378 478 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 56 58 SW 13 9755 6912 1012 Blue 3
12 Noon Fri 59 62 SW 14 13783 10380 4480 Blue 7
1 PM Fri 61 64 SW 15 14227 12801 6901 Blue 9
2 PM Fri 65 67 SW 16 14564 14168 8268 Blue 12
3 PM Fri 62 63 SW 17 14006 11578 5678 Blue 8
4 PM Fri 61 61 SW 17 13068 9672 3772 Blue 6
5 PM Fri 57 57 SW 17 8024 6734 834 Blue 2
6 PM Fri 52 52 SW 17 6379 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 49 49 SW 17 5840 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 47 47 SW 17 5479 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 45 45 SW 17 5117 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 44 44 SW 17 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 44 44 S 17 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 45 45 S 18 5117 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 46 46 S 20 5298 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 45 45 S 21 5117 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 45 45 SW 21 5117 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 44 44 SW 21 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 42 42 SW 21 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 42 42 SW 21 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 42 42 SW 21 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 43 43 SW 21 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 43 43 SW 21 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 44 44 SW 21 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 44 45 SW 22 5117 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 44 45 W 22 5117 5900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 45 46 W 23 5298 5900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 45 46 W 23 5298 5900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 43 43 W 24 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 42 42 W 24 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 39 39 W 24 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 36 36 W 23 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 34 34 W 22 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 32 32 W 21 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 31 31 W 20 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 30 30 W 17 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 30 30 W 16 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 30 30 W 15 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 31 31 W 15 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 31 31 W 14 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 31 31 W 14 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 30 30 W 14 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 29 29 W 13 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 29 29 W 12 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 29 29 W 12 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 30 30 W 10 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 34 34 NW 10 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 38 39 NW 10 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 40 42 NW 10 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 42 45 NW 10 5117 5900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 43 46 NW 12 5298 5900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 46 48 NW 12 5659 5900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 44 45 NW 13 5117 5900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 43 43 NW 13 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 41 41 NW 13 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 37 37 N 12 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 35 35 N 10 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 33 33 NE 8 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 32 32 E 7 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 31 31 E 6 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 31 31 E 5 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 32 32 E 5 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 32 32 E 5 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 32 32 E 6 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 32 32 E 7 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 31 31 E 8 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 30 30 E 9 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 30 30 E 9 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 30 30 E 10 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 32 32 E 10 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 38 38 E 10 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 42 43 E 10 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 45 47 E 12 5479 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 48 51 E 12 6199 5900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 50 53 NE 12 6558 6020 120 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 54 56 NE 12 7437 6556 656 Blue 1
3 PM Mon 51 52 N 12 6379 5900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 50 50 N 12 6020 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 46 46 NW 10 5298 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 41 41 NW 10 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 38 38 NW 9 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 36 36 W 8 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 34 34 W 7 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 34 34 SW 7 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 34 34 SW 6 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 34 34 SW 6 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 35 35 SW 6 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 34 34 SW 6 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 34 34 SW 6 5066 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 33 33 SW 6 5066 5900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com