Detailed Predictions for: Whetstone Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 5500
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

16 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 67 67 NW 7 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 68 68 NW 7 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 76 77 W 6 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 78 80 W 6 8206 5981 81 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 81 85 W 5 12847 9723 3823 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 84 89 W 6 16257 14823 8923 White 6
12 Noon Tue 87 92 W 6 16880 16880 10980 White 9
1 PM Tue 88 93 W 8 17086 17086 11186 White 10
2 PM Tue 88 92 W 10 16880 16880 10980 White 9
3 PM Tue 88 91 W 13 16672 16672 10772 White 8
4 PM Tue 88 89 W 13 16257 14823 8923 White 6
5 PM Tue 88 88 W 13 16049 11758 5858 White 5
6 PM Tue 86 86 W 12 15632 10439 4539 White 3
7 PM Tue 84 84 W 13 11299 8964 3064 Blue 1
8 PM Tue 82 82 W 13 9805 7279 1379 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 78 78 W 14 6323 5981 81 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 76 76 W 13 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 75 75 W 13 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 73 73 SW 12 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 72 72 SW 13 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 70 70 SW 13 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 70 70 SW 13 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 69 69 SW 12 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 68 68 SW 12 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 67 67 SW 10 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 68 68 SW 9 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 74 75 SW 9 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 76 77 W 8 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 78 80 W 8 8206 5981 81 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 80 82 W 7 9805 7279 1379 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 82 84 W 7 11299 8964 3064 Blue 1
1 PM Wed 83 84 W 8 11299 8964 3064 Blue 1
2 PM Wed 84 85 W 9 12847 9723 3823 Blue 2
3 PM Wed 83 83 W 12 10573 8154 2254 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 83 83 W 13 10573 8154 2254 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 83 83 W 14 10573 8154 2254 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 81 81 W 14 9033 6319 419 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 80 80 W 13 8206 5981 81 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 78 78 SW 10 6323 5981 81 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 74 74 SW 9 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 73 73 SW 9 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 72 72 SW 10 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 70 70 SW 12 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 69 69 SW 12 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 68 68 SW 10 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 67 67 SW 10 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 66 66 SW 9 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 66 66 SW 9 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 65 65 SW 8 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 66 66 W 8 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 71 71 W 8 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 73 74 W 9 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 75 76 W 9 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 77 79 NW 10 7310 5981 81 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 79 82 NW 10 9805 7279 1379 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 80 83 NW 12 10573 8154 2254 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 80 83 NW 12 10573 8154 2254 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 80 82 NW 13 9805 7279 1379 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 80 81 NW 13 9033 6319 419 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 80 80 NW 14 8206 5981 81 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 78 78 W 14 6323 5981 81 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 77 77 W 13 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 76 76 W 13 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 73 73 W 12 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 71 71 W 10 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 70 70 W 9 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 69 69 W 9 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 68 68 W 9 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 67 67 W 9 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 66 66 W 8 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 66 66 W 9 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 65 65 W 9 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 65 65 W 9 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 65 65 W 9 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 72 72 W 9 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 74 75 NW 9 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 76 78 NW 9 6323 5981 81 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 78 81 NW 9 9033 6319 419 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 80 83 NW 9 10573 8154 2254 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 81 84 NW 10 11299 8964 3064 Blue 1
2 PM Fri 82 85 NW 12 12847 9723 3823 Blue 2
3 PM Fri 82 84 NW 12 11299 8964 3064 Blue 1
4 PM Fri 82 83 NW 13 10573 8154 2254 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 82 83 NW 14 10573 8154 2254 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 80 80 NW 14 8206 5981 81 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 78 78 W 14 6323 5981 81 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 77 77 W 13 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 74 74 W 12 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 72 72 W 12 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 71 71 W 10 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 70 70 W 9 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 69 69 W 9 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 68 68 W 9 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 67 67 SW 9 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 66 66 SW 10 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 66 66 SW 10 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 65 65 SW 10 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 66 66 SW 10 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 72 72 W 10 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 74 75 W 10 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 76 78 W 10 6323 5981 81 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 78 81 NW 10 9033 6319 419 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 80 83 NW 10 10573 8154 2254 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 81 84 NW 10 11299 8964 3064 Blue 1
2 PM Sat 81 84 NW 10 11299 8964 3064 Blue 1
3 PM Sat 81 83 NW 10 10573 8154 2254 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 81 82 W 12 9805 7279 1379 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 81 81 W 12 9033 6319 419 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 79 79 W 12 7310 5981 81 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 78 78 W 12 6323 5981 81 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 77 77 W 10 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 73 73 W 10 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 72 72 W 10 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 70 70 SW 9 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 69 69 SW 9 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 68 68 SW 9 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 67 67 W 9 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 66 66 W 8 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 66 66 W 8 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 65 65 W 8 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 65 65 W 8 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 65 65 W 8 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 70 70 W 8 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 72 73 W 8 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 74 76 W 8 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 76 78 NW 8 6323 5981 81 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 78 81 NW 8 9033 6319 419 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 78 81 NW 9 9033 6319 419 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 79 81 NW 10 9033 6319 419 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 79 81 NW 10 9033 6319 419 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 79 80 W 12 8206 5981 81 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 79 79 W 13 7310 5981 81 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 77 77 W 13 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 76 76 W 13 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 74 74 W 13 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 71 71 W 13 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 70 70 W 12 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 69 69 W 12 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 68 68 W 10 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 67 67 W 9 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 66 66 W 9 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 65 65 W 8 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 65 65 W 7 5981 5981 81 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 64 64 W 7 5981 5981 81 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com