Detailed Predictions for: Whetstone Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 5500
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

19 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 44 44 E 15 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 43 43 E 15 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 43 43 E 15 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 49 49 E 16 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 58 59 E 15 9565 5900 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 60 62 E 15 9835 9555 3655 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 62 65 E 14 10554 9824 3924 Blue 6
12 Noon Sun 64 67 E 13 10858 10446 4546 Blue 8
1 PM Sun 65 68 E 10 11109 10541 4641 Blue 9
2 PM Sun 66 68 E 9 11109 10541 4641 Blue 9
3 PM Sun 66 67 E 7 10858 10446 4546 Blue 8
4 PM Sun 65 65 E 6 10554 9824 3924 Blue 6
5 PM Sun 59 59 E 6 9565 5900 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sun 54 54 E 6 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 51 51 SE 7 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 49 49 SE 8 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 48 48 SE 7 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 47 47 S 6 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 46 46 S 6 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 46 46 S 5 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 46 46 SW 3 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 46 46 SW 3 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 45 45 SW 3 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 44 44 SW 5 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 43 43 SW 5 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 43 43 SW 5 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 43 43 SW 3 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 50 50 SW 3 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 59 60 W 2 9655 6281 381 Blue 2
10 AM Mon 62 63 N 2 9942 9645 3745 Blue 4
11 AM Mon 64 66 NE 2 10649 9928 4028 Blue 7
12 Noon Mon 66 68 N 5 11109 10541 4641 Blue 9
1 PM Mon 67 69 NW 7 11499 10636 4736 Blue 10
2 PM Mon 68 70 W 9 11906 10820 4920 Blue 11
3 PM Mon 68 69 W 9 11499 10636 4736 Blue 10
4 PM Mon 67 67 W 10 10858 10446 4546 Blue 8
5 PM Mon 61 61 W 10 9745 7054 1154 Blue 2
6 PM Mon 56 56 W 10 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 52 52 W 10 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 51 51 W 10 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 50 50 W 9 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 48 48 W 9 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 48 48 W 8 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 47 47 W 8 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 48 48 W 7 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 47 47 W 7 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 47 47 W 6 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 46 46 NW 6 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 45 45 NW 5 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 45 45 NW 5 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 45 45 NW 5 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 52 52 N 5 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 61 61 N 5 9745 7054 1154 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 64 65 NE 6 10554 9824 3924 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 66 68 NE 6 11109 10541 4641 Blue 9
12 Noon Tue 68 71 NE 6 12483 11069 5169 Blue 12
1 PM Tue 70 72 NE 6 13616 11429 5529 Blue 13
2 PM Tue 70 72 NE 7 13616 11429 5529 Blue 13
3 PM Tue 71 72 NE 7 13616 11429 5529 Blue 13
4 PM Tue 69 69 N 7 11499 10636 4736 Blue 10
5 PM Tue 64 64 N 8 10459 9734 3834 Blue 5
6 PM Tue 58 58 N 8 7076 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 54 54 NE 9 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 53 53 NE 9 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 52 52 NE 10 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 50 50 NE 12 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 50 50 E 13 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 49 49 E 13 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 49 49 E 14 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 49 49 E 14 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 49 49 E 14 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 48 48 E 14 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 47 47 E 14 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 46 46 E 14 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 47 47 E 13 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 54 54 E 13 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 63 63 E 13 9942 9645 3745 Blue 4
10 AM Wed 66 67 E 12 10858 10446 4546 Blue 8
11 AM Wed 68 70 E 12 11906 10820 4920 Blue 11
12 Noon Wed 70 73 E 12 14594 11831 5931 Blue 14
1 PM Wed 72 74 E 12 15469 12233 6333 Blue 15
2 PM Wed 72 74 E 12 15469 12233 6333 Blue 15
3 PM Wed 73 74 E 13 15469 12233 6333 Blue 15
4 PM Wed 71 71 E 13 12483 11069 5169 Blue 12
5 PM Wed 66 66 E 13 10649 9928 4028 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 60 60 E 12 9655 6281 381 Blue 2
7 PM Wed 57 57 E 10 6284 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 55 55 E 10 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 54 54 E 9 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 53 53 E 8 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 52 52 E 8 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 52 52 E 8 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 52 52 E 8 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 52 52 E 9 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 51 51 E 9 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 51 51 E 10 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 50 50 E 10 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 49 49 E 10 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 50 50 E 10 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 56 56 E 10 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 65 66 E 9 10649 9928 4028 Blue 7
10 AM Thu 68 70 E 9 11906 10820 4920 Blue 11
11 AM Thu 70 73 E 9 14594 11831 5931 Blue 14
12 Noon Thu 72 75 E 9 16003 13364 7464 Blue 16
1 PM Thu 73 76 E 9 16427 14340 8440 Blue 17
2 PM Thu 74 76 E 9 16427 14340 8440 Blue 17
3 PM Thu 74 75 E 9 16003 13364 7464 Blue 16
4 PM Thu 73 73 E 9 14594 11831 5931 Blue 14
5 PM Thu 67 67 E 9 10858 10446 4546 Blue 8
6 PM Thu 61 61 E 9 9745 7054 1154 Blue 2
7 PM Thu 58 58 E 8 7076 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 56 56 E 8 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 55 55 E 8 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 54 54 SE 7 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 53 53 SE 7 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 52 52 SE 7 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 53 53 SE 7 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 52 52 E 7 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 52 52 E 8 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 51 51 E 8 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 50 50 E 8 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 50 50 E 8 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 50 50 E 8 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 56 56 E 8 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 64 65 E 7 10554 9824 3924 Blue 6
10 AM Fri 66 68 E 7 11109 10541 4641 Blue 9
11 AM Fri 68 71 E 7 12483 11069 5169 Blue 12
12 Noon Fri 70 73 E 7 14594 11831 5931 Blue 14
1 PM Fri 72 75 E 7 16003 13364 7464 Blue 16
2 PM Fri 72 74 NE 7 15469 12233 6333 Blue 15
3 PM Fri 73 74 N 6 15469 12233 6333 Blue 15
4 PM Fri 71 71 N 6 12483 11069 5169 Blue 12
5 PM Fri 66 66 NW 6 10649 9928 4028 Blue 7
6 PM Fri 61 61 NW 6 9745 7054 1154 Blue 2
7 PM Fri 58 58 NW 6 7076 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 56 56 W 5 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 55 55 W 5 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 54 54 W 5 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 53 53 SW 5 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 53 53 SW 5 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 53 53 S 3 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 53 53 S 3 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 52 52 S 3 5856 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 52 52 S 3 5856 5900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com