Detailed Predictions for: Whetstone Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 5500
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 27 27 E 30 5200 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 27 27 E 30 5200 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 26 26 E 30 5200 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 31 31 E 30 5954 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 34 35 E 31 7401 6862 962 Blue 3
10 AM Tue 36 38 E 31 7539 7400 1500 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 38 41 E 31 8233 7537 1637 Blue 9
12 Noon Tue 41 45 E 31 8726 8560 2660 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 43 46 E 30 8767 8641 2741 Blue 14
2 PM Tue 43 46 E 29 8767 8641 2741 Blue 14
3 PM Tue 43 44 E 29 8685 8208 2308 Blue 12
4 PM Tue 42 42 E 28 8588 7666 1766 Blue 10
5 PM Tue 39 39 E 28 7673 7445 1545 Blue 7
6 PM Tue 36 36 E 28 7447 7174 1274 Blue 4
7 PM Tue 34 34 E 26 7356 5960 60 Blue 2
8 PM Tue 32 32 E 26 6882 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 31 31 E 26 5954 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 30 30 E 28 5200 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 29 29 E 28 5200 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 30 30 E 26 5200 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 30 30 E 25 5200 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 30 30 E 24 5200 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 30 30 E 24 5200 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 29 29 E 24 5200 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 29 29 E 23 5200 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 29 29 E 23 5200 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 29 29 E 23 5200 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 35 35 E 23 7401 6862 962 Blue 3
9 AM Wed 39 40 E 23 7873 7491 1591 Blue 8
10 AM Wed 41 43 E 23 8644 7853 1953 Blue 11
11 AM Wed 44 46 E 23 8767 8641 2741 Blue 14
12 Noon Wed 47 49 E 23 8890 8763 2863 Blue 17
1 PM Wed 50 52 E 22 9171 8885 2985 Blue 20
2 PM Wed 51 52 E 20 9171 8885 2985 Blue 20
3 PM Wed 50 51 E 20 9064 8845 2945 Blue 19
4 PM Wed 48 48 E 18 8848 8722 2822 Blue 16
5 PM Wed 45 45 E 17 8726 8560 2660 Blue 13
6 PM Wed 41 41 E 17 8233 7537 1637 Blue 9
7 PM Wed 39 39 E 16 7673 7445 1545 Blue 7
8 PM Wed 36 36 E 16 7447 7174 1274 Blue 4
9 PM Wed 35 35 E 15 7401 6862 962 Blue 3
10 PM Wed 34 34 E 15 7356 5960 60 Blue 2
11 PM Wed 32 32 E 14 6882 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 34 34 E 14 7356 5960 60 Blue 2
1 AM Thu 34 34 E 14 7356 5960 60 Blue 2
2 AM Thu 33 33 E 13 7182 5900 0 Blue 1
3 AM Thu 33 33 E 13 7182 5900 0 Blue 1
4 AM Thu 32 32 E 13 6882 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 32 32 E 13 6882 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 32 32 E 13 6882 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 32 32 E 14 6882 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 39 39 E 14 7673 7445 1545 Blue 7
9 AM Thu 43 44 E 14 8685 8208 2308 Blue 12
10 AM Thu 46 48 E 14 8848 8722 2822 Blue 16
11 AM Thu 50 53 E 14 9379 8969 3069 Blue 21
12 Noon Thu 53 57 E 14 10208 9564 3664 Blue 25
1 PM Thu 56 59 E 13 10798 9975 4075 Blue 27
2 PM Thu 57 60 E 13 11528 10180 4280 Blue 28
3 PM Thu 56 57 E 12 10208 9564 3664 Blue 25
4 PM Thu 54 54 E 10 9587 9056 3156 Blue 22
5 PM Thu 50 50 E 9 8977 8804 2904 Blue 18
6 PM Thu 45 45 E 9 8726 8560 2660 Blue 13
7 PM Thu 43 43 E 9 8644 7853 1953 Blue 11
8 PM Thu 40 40 E 8 7873 7491 1591 Blue 8
9 PM Thu 38 38 E 8 7539 7400 1500 Blue 6
10 PM Thu 37 37 E 8 7493 7354 1454 Blue 5
11 PM Thu 35 35 E 8 7401 6862 962 Blue 3
12 Midnight Fri 37 37 E 8 7493 7354 1454 Blue 5
1 AM Fri 37 37 E 8 7493 7354 1454 Blue 5
2 AM Fri 36 36 E 8 7447 7174 1274 Blue 4
3 AM Fri 36 36 E 8 7447 7174 1274 Blue 4
4 AM Fri 35 35 E 8 7401 6862 962 Blue 3
5 AM Fri 35 35 E 8 7401 6862 962 Blue 3
6 AM Fri 35 35 E 8 7401 6862 962 Blue 3
7 AM Fri 35 35 E 8 7401 6862 962 Blue 3
8 AM Fri 41 41 SE 8 8233 7537 1637 Blue 9
9 AM Fri 45 46 SE 8 8767 8641 2741 Blue 14
10 AM Fri 48 50 SE 8 8977 8804 2904 Blue 18
11 AM Fri 52 55 SE 8 9795 9150 3250 Blue 23
12 Noon Fri 55 58 SE 8 10428 9770 3870 Blue 26
1 PM Fri 58 61 S 8 12214 10396 4496 Blue 29
2 PM Fri 58 60 SW 9 11528 10180 4280 Blue 28
3 PM Fri 58 59 SW 9 10798 9975 4075 Blue 27
4 PM Fri 56 56 W 9 10002 9357 3457 Blue 24
5 PM Fri 52 52 W 9 9171 8885 2985 Blue 20
6 PM Fri 48 48 W 9 8848 8722 2822 Blue 16
7 PM Fri 45 45 W 9 8726 8560 2660 Blue 13
8 PM Fri 43 43 W 8 8644 7853 1953 Blue 11
9 PM Fri 41 41 W 8 8233 7537 1637 Blue 9
10 PM Fri 40 40 SW 8 7873 7491 1591 Blue 8
11 PM Fri 38 38 SW 8 7539 7400 1500 Blue 6
12 Midnight Sat 40 40 SW 8 7873 7491 1591 Blue 8
1 AM Sat 40 40 SW 8 7873 7491 1591 Blue 8
2 AM Sat 39 39 S 7 7673 7445 1545 Blue 7
3 AM Sat 39 39 S 7 7673 7445 1545 Blue 7
4 AM Sat 38 38 SE 7 7539 7400 1500 Blue 6
5 AM Sat 38 38 SE 7 7539 7400 1500 Blue 6
6 AM Sat 38 38 SE 7 7539 7400 1500 Blue 6
7 AM Sat 38 38 S 7 7539 7400 1500 Blue 6
8 AM Sat 44 44 S 7 8685 8208 2308 Blue 12
9 AM Sat 47 47 S 8 8807 8682 2782 Blue 15
10 AM Sat 50 51 S 8 9064 8845 2945 Blue 19
11 AM Sat 53 55 S 8 9795 9150 3250 Blue 23
12 Noon Sat 56 59 S 8 10798 9975 4075 Blue 27
1 PM Sat 59 62 SW 9 12865 10684 4784 Blue 30
2 PM Sat 59 61 SW 9 12214 10396 4496 Blue 29
3 PM Sat 58 59 W 9 10798 9975 4075 Blue 27
4 PM Sat 56 56 W 9 10002 9357 3457 Blue 24
5 PM Sat 52 52 W 9 9171 8885 2985 Blue 20
6 PM Sat 48 48 W 9 8848 8722 2822 Blue 16
7 PM Sat 45 45 W 8 8726 8560 2660 Blue 13
8 PM Sat 43 43 SW 8 8644 7853 1953 Blue 11
9 PM Sat 40 40 SW 7 7873 7491 1591 Blue 8
10 PM Sat 39 39 SW 7 7673 7445 1545 Blue 7
11 PM Sat 38 38 SW 6 7539 7400 1500 Blue 6
12 Midnight Sun 39 39 S 6 7673 7445 1545 Blue 7
1 AM Sun 40 40 S 7 7873 7491 1591 Blue 8
2 AM Sun 39 39 S 7 7673 7445 1545 Blue 7
3 AM Sun 38 38 SE 7 7539 7400 1500 Blue 6
4 AM Sun 38 38 SE 8 7539 7400 1500 Blue 6
5 AM Sun 38 38 E 8 7539 7400 1500 Blue 6
6 AM Sun 37 37 E 8 7493 7354 1454 Blue 5
7 AM Sun 37 37 E 9 7493 7354 1454 Blue 5
8 AM Sun 43 43 E 9 8644 7853 1953 Blue 11
9 AM Sun 47 47 E 9 8807 8682 2782 Blue 15
10 AM Sun 50 51 E 9 9064 8845 2945 Blue 19
11 AM Sun 53 54 E 9 9587 9056 3156 Blue 22
12 Noon Sun 56 58 E 10 10428 9770 3870 Blue 26
1 PM Sun 59 61 E 10 12214 10396 4496 Blue 29
2 PM Sun 59 60 E 10 11528 10180 4280 Blue 28
3 PM Sun 59 60 E 10 11528 10180 4280 Blue 28
4 PM Sun 57 57 E 10 10208 9564 3664 Blue 25
5 PM Sun 53 53 E 10 9379 8969 3069 Blue 21
6 PM Sun 48 48 E 10 8848 8722 2822 Blue 16
7 PM Sun 46 46 E 10 8767 8641 2741 Blue 14
8 PM Sun 43 43 E 10 8644 7853 1953 Blue 11
9 PM Sun 41 41 E 9 8233 7537 1637 Blue 9
10 PM Sun 40 40 E 9 7873 7491 1591 Blue 8
11 PM Sun 38 38 E 9 7539 7400 1500 Blue 6
12 Midnight Mon 40 40 E 9 7873 7491 1591 Blue 8
1 AM Mon 40 40 E 9 7873 7491 1591 Blue 8
2 AM Mon 40 40 E 9 7873 7491 1591 Blue 8
3 AM Mon 39 39 E 9 7673 7445 1545 Blue 7
4 AM Mon 39 39 E 9 7673 7445 1545 Blue 7

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com