Detailed Predictions for: Whetstone Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 5500
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

17 SEP 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 57 57 W 6 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 56 56 W 6 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 59 60 W 6 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 63 65 W 6 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 66 70 NW 6 6951 5943 43 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 68 72 NW 5 10894 6613 713 Blue 2
12 Noon Tue 72 76 N 5 12679 11089 5189 Blue 6
1 PM Tue 74 78 NW 6 13989 11655 5755 White 8
2 PM Tue 74 77 NW 7 13776 11318 5418 White 7
3 PM Tue 74 76 NW 8 12679 11089 5189 Blue 6
4 PM Tue 75 76 NW 9 12679 11089 5189 Blue 6
5 PM Tue 73 73 NW 9 11125 6943 1043 Blue 3
6 PM Tue 72 72 NW 9 10894 6613 713 Blue 2
7 PM Tue 68 68 NW 8 6280 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 65 65 NW 7 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 63 63 NW 6 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 62 62 NW 5 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 61 61 NW 5 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 60 60 NW 5 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 60 60 NW 5 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 60 60 NW 5 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 59 59 W 5 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 58 58 W 5 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 58 58 W 3 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 58 58 W 3 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 57 57 SW 3 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 60 61 S 3 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 65 67 S 3 5941 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 67 70 S 3 6951 5943 43 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 70 73 S 5 11125 6943 1043 Blue 3
12 Noon Wed 74 78 S 5 13989 11655 5755 White 8
1 PM Wed 76 80 S 6 14412 14341 8441 White 10
2 PM Wed 76 79 SW 6 14201 12481 6581 White 9
3 PM Wed 76 78 W 7 13989 11655 5755 White 8
4 PM Wed 77 78 W 8 13989 11655 5755 White 8
5 PM Wed 75 75 W 8 11717 10859 4959 Blue 5
6 PM Wed 74 74 W 8 11357 9856 3956 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 69 69 W 8 6617 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 66 66 W 7 5598 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 64 64 W 7 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 63 63 W 7 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 62 62 W 7 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 61 61 SW 7 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 60 60 SW 7 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 61 61 SW 6 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 60 60 SW 6 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 59 59 SW 6 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 59 59 SW 6 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 58 58 SW 6 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 58 58 SW 6 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 61 61 SW 6 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 64 65 SW 7 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 67 70 SW 8 6951 5943 43 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 69 73 SW 9 11125 6943 1043 Blue 3
12 Noon Thu 72 76 SW 10 12679 11089 5189 Blue 6
1 PM Thu 74 78 SW 10 13989 11655 5755 White 8
2 PM Thu 75 79 SW 12 14201 12481 6581 White 9
3 PM Thu 75 78 SW 12 13989 11655 5755 White 8
4 PM Thu 75 76 SW 12 12679 11089 5189 Blue 6
5 PM Thu 73 73 SW 13 11125 6943 1043 Blue 3
6 PM Thu 72 72 SW 13 10894 6613 713 Blue 2
7 PM Thu 68 68 SW 13 6280 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 64 64 SW 12 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 62 62 SW 10 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 61 61 SW 9 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 60 60 SW 9 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 59 59 SW 8 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 59 59 SW 8 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 59 59 SW 8 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 58 58 SW 8 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 57 57 SW 8 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 57 57 S 7 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 57 57 S 7 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 56 56 S 7 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 59 60 S 8 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 64 66 SW 8 5598 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 66 70 SW 9 6951 5943 43 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 69 74 SW 9 11357 9856 3956 Blue 4
12 Noon Fri 73 79 SW 10 14201 12481 6581 White 9
1 PM Fri 75 81 SW 12 14620 14620 8720 White 11
2 PM Fri 76 81 SW 12 14620 14620 8720 White 11
3 PM Fri 76 80 SW 13 14412 14341 8441 White 10
4 PM Fri 76 78 SW 13 13989 11655 5755 White 8
5 PM Fri 74 74 SW 13 11357 9856 3956 Blue 4
6 PM Fri 72 72 SW 13 10894 6613 713 Blue 2
7 PM Fri 68 68 SW 12 6280 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 64 64 SW 12 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 62 62 SW 10 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 61 61 SW 9 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 60 60 SW 8 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 59 59 SW 7 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 58 58 SW 7 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 58 58 SW 7 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 57 57 SW 7 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 57 57 S 7 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 56 56 S 7 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 56 56 S 7 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 56 56 S 7 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 59 60 S 7 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 64 66 S 7 5598 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 66 70 S 7 6951 5943 43 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 70 75 S 8 11717 10859 4959 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 73 78 S 8 13989 11655 5755 White 8
1 PM Sat 76 81 SW 9 14620 14620 8720 White 11
2 PM Sat 77 81 SW 9 14620 14620 8720 White 11
3 PM Sat 76 79 SW 10 14201 12481 6581 White 9
4 PM Sat 77 79 SW 10 14201 12481 6581 White 9
5 PM Sat 75 75 W 12 11717 10859 4959 Blue 5
6 PM Sat 73 73 W 12 11125 6943 1043 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 69 69 W 12 6617 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 65 65 W 10 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 63 63 W 9 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 61 61 SW 8 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 60 60 SW 8 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 59 59 SW 7 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 59 59 SW 7 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 59 59 SW 6 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 58 58 SW 6 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 57 57 SW 6 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 57 57 S 6 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 57 57 S 6 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 56 56 S 6 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 59 60 S 6 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 64 66 S 6 5598 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 66 69 S 6 6617 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 70 74 SW 7 11357 9856 3956 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 73 78 SW 7 13989 11655 5755 White 8
1 PM Sun 76 81 SW 8 14620 14620 8720 White 11
2 PM Sun 76 80 SW 9 14412 14341 8441 White 10
3 PM Sun 76 79 SW 9 14201 12481 6581 White 9
4 PM Sun 77 78 SW 10 13989 11655 5755 White 8
5 PM Sun 75 75 W 12 11717 10859 4959 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 73 73 W 12 11125 6943 1043 Blue 3
7 PM Sun 69 69 W 12 6617 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 65 65 W 10 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 63 63 SW 9 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 62 62 SW 8 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 60 60 SW 8 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 60 60 SW 7 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 59 59 SW 7 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 59 59 SW 7 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 58 58 SW 7 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 58 58 SW 7 5492 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 57 57 SW 7 5492 5900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com