Detailed Predictions for: Whetstone Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 5500
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

21 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sat 63 63 S 14 5673 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 64 64 S 12 5673 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 69 70 SW 7 5996 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 71 73 SW 7 6627 5997 97 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 72 75 SW 7 7788 6415 515 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 75 79 W 6 10635 7928 2028 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 78 83 W 6 14008 11110 5210 White 9
1 PM Sat 78 83 W 6 14008 11110 5210 White 9
2 PM Sat 79 83 W 6 14008 11110 5210 White 9
3 PM Sat 80 83 W 7 14008 11110 5210 White 9
4 PM Sat 79 81 W 9 11738 8760 2860 Blue 7
5 PM Sat 78 79 W 12 10635 7928 2028 Blue 5
6 PM Sat 76 76 NW 13 7936 6624 724 Blue 2
7 PM Sat 76 76 W 14 7936 6624 724 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 75 75 NW 15 7788 6415 515 Blue 1
9 PM Sat 72 72 NW 15 6417 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 71 71 NW 13 6206 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 70 70 W 10 5996 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 69 69 W 9 5784 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 68 68 W 8 5673 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 68 68 W 8 5673 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 68 68 W 8 5673 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 67 67 NW 7 5673 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 67 67 NW 7 5673 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 66 66 N 7 5673 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 67 67 N 7 5673 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 74 75 N 6 7788 6415 515 Blue 1
9 AM Sun 75 77 SW 6 8083 7379 1479 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 77 81 NW 5 11738 8760 2860 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 80 84 NW 5 14221 11646 5746 White 10
12 Noon Sun 84 89 E 5 15282 15282 9382 White 15
1 PM Sun 83 88 N 7 15071 15071 9171 White 14
2 PM Sun 84 88 NW 10 15071 15071 9171 White 14
3 PM Sun 85 88 NW 9 15071 15071 9171 White 14
4 PM Sun 85 87 NW 10 14858 14858 8958 White 13
5 PM Sun 83 84 NW 10 14221 11646 5746 White 10
6 PM Sun 81 81 NW 14 11738 8760 2860 Blue 7
7 PM Sun 80 80 NW 15 11195 8074 2174 Blue 6
8 PM Sun 79 79 NW 16 10635 7928 2028 Blue 5
9 PM Sun 76 76 NW 16 7936 6624 724 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 74 74 NW 14 7633 6206 306 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 73 73 NW 12 6627 5997 97 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 71 71 NW 10 6206 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 70 70 NW 9 5996 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 70 70 NW 9 5996 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 69 69 NW 9 5784 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 68 68 NW 8 5673 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 68 68 NW 8 5673 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 68 68 NW 7 5673 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 68 68 N 7 5673 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 77 78 N 6 8960 7781 1881 Blue 4
9 AM Mon 78 81 N 6 11738 8760 2860 Blue 7
10 AM Mon 80 85 N 6 14434 14434 8534 White 11
11 AM Mon 85 91 N 6 15697 15697 9797 White 17
12 Noon Mon 89 96 E 6 16724 16724 10824 White 22
1 PM Mon 88 95 N 6 16519 16519 10619 White 21
2 PM Mon 90 96 N 6 16724 16724 10824 White 22
3 PM Mon 90 94 NW 6 16314 16314 10414 White 20
4 PM Mon 90 93 NW 7 16108 16108 10208 White 19
5 PM Mon 88 89 NW 7 15282 15282 9382 White 15
6 PM Mon 86 86 SW 8 14646 14646 8746 White 12
7 PM Mon 85 85 SW 8 14434 14434 8534 White 11
8 PM Mon 84 84 SW 8 14221 11646 5746 White 10
9 PM Mon 79 79 SW 8 10635 7928 2028 Blue 5
10 PM Mon 76 76 SW 9 7936 6624 724 Blue 2
11 PM Mon 76 76 SW 9 7936 6624 724 Blue 2
12 Midnight Tue 74 74 SW 9 7633 6206 306 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 72 72 SW 9 6417 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 72 72 SW 9 6417 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 71 71 SW 9 6206 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 70 70 SW 9 5996 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 70 70 SW 9 5996 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 70 70 SW 9 5996 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 70 70 SW 10 5996 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 78 79 S 10 10635 7928 2028 Blue 5
9 AM Tue 80 83 S 10 14008 11110 5210 White 9
10 AM Tue 82 86 SE 12 14646 14646 8746 White 12
11 AM Tue 86 92 E 12 15903 15903 10003 White 18
12 Noon Tue 90 96 E 12 16724 16724 10824 White 22
1 PM Tue 89 95 E 12 16519 16519 10619 White 21
2 PM Tue 91 96 SE 12 16724 16724 10824 White 22
3 PM Tue 92 95 S 10 16519 16519 10619 White 21
4 PM Tue 92 94 S 10 16314 16314 10414 White 20
5 PM Tue 89 90 SW 9 15491 15491 9591 White 16
6 PM Tue 86 86 W 9 14646 14646 8746 White 12
7 PM Tue 86 86 W 9 14646 14646 8746 White 12
8 PM Tue 84 84 W 8 14221 11646 5746 White 10
9 PM Tue 79 79 W 8 10635 7928 2028 Blue 5
10 PM Tue 76 76 W 8 7936 6624 724 Blue 2
11 PM Tue 76 76 W 7 7936 6624 724 Blue 2
12 Midnight Wed 73 73 W 7 6627 5997 97 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 72 72 W 7 6417 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 72 72 W 7 6417 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 71 71 NW 6 6206 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 70 70 NW 6 5996 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 70 70 NW 6 5996 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 69 69 NW 6 5784 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 69 69 NW 6 5784 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 77 78 NW 6 8960 7781 1881 Blue 4
9 AM Wed 78 80 N 6 11195 8074 2174 Blue 6
10 AM Wed 80 83 N 5 14008 11110 5210 White 9
11 AM Wed 84 88 N 6 15071 15071 9171 White 14
12 Noon Wed 88 93 N 6 16108 16108 10208 White 19
1 PM Wed 87 92 N 7 15903 15903 10003 White 18
2 PM Wed 89 93 N 9 16108 16108 10208 White 19
3 PM Wed 90 93 N 12 16108 16108 10208 White 19
4 PM Wed 90 92 N 13 15903 15903 10003 White 18
5 PM Wed 87 88 NW 15 15071 15071 9171 White 14
6 PM Wed 85 85 NW 16 14434 14434 8534 White 11
7 PM Wed 84 84 NW 16 14221 11646 5746 White 10
8 PM Wed 83 83 NW 15 14008 11110 5210 White 9
9 PM Wed 78 78 NW 14 8960 7781 1881 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 75 75 NW 13 7788 6415 515 Blue 1
11 PM Wed 74 74 NW 12 7633 6206 306 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 72 72 NW 9 6417 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 70 70 NW 8 5996 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 70 70 NW 7 5996 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 70 70 NW 6 5996 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 69 69 NW 6 5784 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 69 69 NW 6 5784 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 68 68 NW 6 5673 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 68 68 NW 7 5673 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 74 75 NW 7 7788 6415 515 Blue 1
9 AM Thu 76 78 NW 8 8960 7781 1881 Blue 4
10 AM Thu 77 80 NW 9 11195 8074 2174 Blue 6
11 AM Thu 80 84 NW 9 14221 11646 5746 White 10
12 Noon Thu 83 88 NW 10 15071 15071 9171 White 14
1 PM Thu 82 87 NW 12 14858 14858 8958 White 13
2 PM Thu 84 88 NW 13 15071 15071 9171 White 14
3 PM Thu 84 87 NW 13 14858 14858 8958 White 13
4 PM Thu 84 85 NW 14 14434 14434 8534 White 11
5 PM Thu 82 82 NW 14 13794 10557 4657 White 8
6 PM Thu 80 80 NW 15 11195 8074 2174 Blue 6
7 PM Thu 80 80 NW 14 11195 8074 2174 Blue 6
8 PM Thu 79 79 NW 14 10635 7928 2028 Blue 5
9 PM Thu 75 75 NW 13 7788 6415 515 Blue 1
10 PM Thu 73 73 NW 12 6627 5997 97 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 72 72 NW 10 6417 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 71 71 W 9 6206 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 69 69 W 8 5784 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 69 69 W 7 5784 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 69 69 W 7 5784 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 68 68 W 7 5673 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 68 68 W 7 5673 5900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com