Detailed Predictions for: Whetstone Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 31.7681, -110.4589, 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 5500
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

28 MAR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 44 44 E 9 9 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 43 43 E 10 10 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 42 42 E 10 11 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 42 42 E 11 12 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 42 42 E 11 12 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 42 42 ESE 11 12 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 43 43 E 11 12 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 44 44 E 10 11 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 48 48 ESE 10 11 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 54 56 ESE 10 10 7780 6571 671 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 56 59 SSE 10 11 9427 7751 1851 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 59 62 S 10 13 10417 9373 3473 Blue 7
12 Noon Thu 64 67 SW 11 17 11206 10538 4638 Blue 12
1 PM Thu 66 68 WSW 14 21 11708 10603 4703 Blue 13
2 PM Thu 67 69 WSW 17 24 12197 10668 4768 Blue 14
3 PM Thu 67 68 WSW 18 26 11708 10603 4703 Blue 13
4 PM Thu 66 66 WSW 18 26 10677 10473 4573 Blue 11
5 PM Thu 64 64 WSW 18 21 10547 10118 4218 Blue 9
6 PM Thu 62 62 W 17 19 10417 9373 3473 Blue 7
7 PM Thu 57 57 W 13 16 8347 6879 979 Blue 2
8 PM Thu 56 56 W 12 14 7780 6571 671 Blue 1
9 PM Thu 54 54 W 12 13 6886 6010 110 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 53 53 W 12 13 6574 6010 110 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 51 51 WSW 11 12 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 51 51 WSW 12 13 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 51 51 WSW 14 16 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 49 49 WSW 17 18 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 48 WSW 17 18 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 48 48 WSW 17 18 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 48 48 WSW 17 18 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 48 48 WSW 17 18 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 48 48 SW 18 19 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 51 51 SW 20 21 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 55 56 SW 26 27 7780 6571 671 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 59 62 SW 29 32 10417 9373 3473 Blue 7
11 AM Fri 61 66 SW 32 35 10677 10473 4573 Blue 11
12 Noon Fri 63 69 SW 33 37 12197 10668 4768 Blue 14
1 PM Fri 64 69 SW 33 40 12197 10668 4768 Blue 14
2 PM Fri 64 68 SW 33 40 11708 10603 4703 Blue 13
3 PM Fri 64 67 SW 32 39 11206 10538 4638 Blue 12
4 PM Fri 63 64 SW 31 36 10547 10118 4218 Blue 9
5 PM Fri 62 62 SW 28 34 10417 9373 3473 Blue 7
6 PM Fri 59 59 SW 26 32 9427 7751 1851 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 56 56 SW 25 28 7780 6571 671 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 53 53 SW 23 26 6574 6010 110 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 51 51 SW 21 24 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 50 50 SSW 20 23 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 49 49 SSW 19 21 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 48 48 SSW 19 20 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 47 47 S 19 20 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 47 47 S 20 21 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 46 46 S 21 23 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 46 46 S 21 24 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 47 47 S 23 26 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 48 48 S 24 26 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 50 50 S 24 27 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 52 52 S 26 29 6260 6010 110 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 55 56 S 29 34 7780 6571 671 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 57 59 SSW 33 39 9427 7751 1851 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 58 60 SSW 36 42 9874 8308 2408 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 60 63 SSW 37 43 10482 9841 3941 Blue 8
1 PM Sat 61 64 SSW 37 43 10547 10118 4218 Blue 9
2 PM Sat 62 64 SSW 36 43 10547 10118 4218 Blue 9
3 PM Sat 61 62 SSW 35 43 10417 9373 3473 Blue 7
4 PM Sat 59 60 SSW 35 43 9874 8308 2408 Blue 5
5 PM Sat 57 57 SSW 34 43 8347 6879 979 Blue 2
6 PM Sat 56 56 SSW 34 42 7780 6571 671 Blue 1
7 PM Sat 54 54 SSW 33 41 6886 6010 110 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 53 53 SSW 33 40 6574 6010 110 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 52 52 SSW 33 40 6260 6010 110 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 50 50 SSW 33 41 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 49 49 SSW 33 41 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 49 49 SSW 33 40 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 48 48 SSW 33 37 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 48 48 SSW 33 35 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 47 47 SSW 32 33 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 46 46 SSW 29 31 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 46 46 SSW 27 29 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 46 46 SSW 25 29 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 46 46 SSW 23 31 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 47 47 SSW 23 32 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 48 49 SSW 25 33 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 50 52 SSW 27 35 6260 6010 110 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 50 52 SSW 29 36 6260 6010 110 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 51 53 SSW 31 37 6574 6010 110 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 51 53 SW 31 37 6574 6010 110 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 51 52 SW 29 36 6260 6010 110 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 49 50 SW 27 34 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 47 47 WSW 24 31 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 45 45 WSW 21 28 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 43 43 WSW 20 26 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 42 42 SW 19 25 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 41 41 SW 19 24 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 41 41 SW 18 23 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 40 40 SW 18 21 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 40 40 SW 17 21 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 40 40 SW 17 21 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 39 39 SW 16 21 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 39 39 SW 16 21 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 39 39 SW 14 21 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 38 38 SW 13 21 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 38 38 SW 13 21 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 38 38 SW 13 21 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 39 39 SW 13 21 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 39 39 SW 14 23 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 40 40 SW 17 24 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 41 42 SW 18 26 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 42 43 SW 20 27 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 43 44 WSW 21 28 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 44 45 WSW 23 28 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 44 45 WSW 23 28 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 44 44 W 21 27 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 42 42 W 20 26 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 41 41 W 18 25 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 40 40 W 17 24 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 38 38 W 14 23 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 38 38 W 13 20 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 37 37 W 12 18 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 37 37 W 10 16 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 37 37 W 9 13 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 36 36 W 8 12 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 36 36 W 6 11 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 36 36 W 6 10 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 35 35 W 5 9 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 35 35 W 5 9 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 35 35 W 5 9 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 36 36 WNW 5 10 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 37 37 NW 6 11 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 39 40 NW 8 12 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 41 43 NW 10 14 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 44 48 NNW 12 16 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 46 51 NNW 14 18 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 48 54 NNW 16 19 6886 6010 110 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 50 55 NW 17 21 7216 6259 359 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 51 56 NW 17 21 7780 6571 671 Blue 1
3 PM Tue 51 54 NW 17 21 6886 6010 110 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 50 52 NNW 17 20 6260 6010 110 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 49 49 NNW 16 19 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 47 47 NNW 14 18 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 45 45 NW 12 17 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 43 43 NW 11 16 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 42 42 NW 10 14 6010 6010 110 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 41 41 NW 9 14 6010 6010 110 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]