Detailed Predictions for: Whetstone Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 31.7681, -110.4589, 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 5500
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

2 OCT 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 57 57 ESE 9 9 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 57 57 ESE 6 8 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 56 56 E 8 8 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 56 56 E 8 8 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 55 55 E 8 9 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 55 55 E 10 10 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 56 56 E 10 10 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 57 57 E 10 10 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 60 60 ESE 10 12 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 63 65 ESE 11 14 8703 6016 116 Blue 2
10 AM Sun 66 70 ESE 12 16 11806 10245 4345 White 7
11 AM Sun 68 71 SE 12 17 12021 11239 5339 White 8
12 Noon Sun 70 74 SE 12 17 12665 12665 6765 White 11
1 PM Sun 71 75 SE 11 16 12878 12878 6978 White 12
2 PM Sun 71 74 SE 11 16 12665 12665 6765 White 11
3 PM Sun 71 73 ESE 11 14 12451 12451 6551 White 10
4 PM Sun 70 71 ESE 10 13 12021 11239 5339 White 8
5 PM Sun 69 69 ESE 6 11 11590 9022 3122 White 6
6 PM Sun 68 68 N 6 10 11300 8676 2776 Blue 5
7 PM Sun 64 64 NE 8 9 8359 6007 107 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 62 62 ENE 8 9 6013 6007 107 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 60 60 E 11 12 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 59 59 E 10 12 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 59 59 ESE 11 12 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 58 58 E 11 12 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 58 58 E 10 10 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 56 56 ESE 10 10 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 56 56 ESE 10 10 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 55 55 ESE 10 10 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 55 55 SE 10 10 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 55 55 E 10 10 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 57 57 E 9 10 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 60 60 ESE 10 12 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 63 65 E 11 13 8703 6016 116 Blue 2
10 AM Mon 66 70 ESE 11 14 11806 10245 4345 White 7
11 AM Mon 68 72 ESE 11 14 12236 11609 5709 White 9
12 Noon Mon 70 75 ESE 11 14 12878 12878 6978 White 12
1 PM Mon 71 76 SE 10 13 13093 13093 7193 White 13
2 PM Mon 71 75 SE 9 12 12878 12878 6978 White 12
3 PM Mon 71 73 SSE 8 11 12451 12451 6551 White 10
4 PM Mon 70 71 S 6 10 12021 11239 5339 White 8
5 PM Mon 69 69 SSW 6 10 11590 9022 3122 White 6
6 PM Mon 67 67 S 8 10 10447 8335 2435 Blue 4
7 PM Mon 64 64 ESE 9 11 8359 6007 107 Blue 1
8 PM Mon 62 62 E 10 11 6013 6007 107 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 60 60 E 10 11 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 60 60 ESE 10 10 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 59 59 SE 10 10 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 58 58 SE 10 10 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 57 57 ESE 9 9 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 56 56 ESE 9 9 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 56 56 SE 9 9 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 55 55 SE 9 9 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 55 55 SE 9 9 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 56 56 SE 9 10 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 58 58 SE 9 11 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 60 60 SE 9 12 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 62 64 SSE 9 12 8359 6007 107 Blue 1
10 AM Tue 65 68 SSE 9 12 11300 8676 2776 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 67 69 S 9 12 11590 9022 3122 White 6
12 Noon Tue 68 71 SSW 10 13 12021 11239 5339 White 8
1 PM Tue 69 72 W 11 13 12236 11609 5709 White 9
2 PM Tue 69 71 WNW 11 14 12021 11239 5339 White 8
3 PM Tue 68 69 WNW 10 14 11590 9022 3122 White 6
4 PM Tue 67 67 W 10 14 10447 8335 2435 Blue 4
5 PM Tue 65 65 WSW 9 13 8703 6016 116 Blue 2
6 PM Tue 63 63 SW 9 12 6705 6007 107 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 60 60 SSW 10 12 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 58 58 SSW 10 11 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 57 57 S 10 11 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 56 56 S 10 11 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 56 56 S 10 11 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 55 55 S 10 11 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 55 55 SSE 9 10 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 55 55 SSE 9 10 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 54 54 SSE 9 10 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 53 53 SSE 10 10 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 53 53 SSE 10 10 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 54 54 SE 10 11 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 56 56 ESE 9 11 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 58 58 ESE 9 12 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 61 63 E 10 12 6705 6007 107 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 63 66 ENE 10 13 9053 6694 794 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 65 68 NE 11 13 11300 8676 2776 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 67 71 NNE 11 13 12021 11239 5339 White 8
1 PM Wed 67 70 N 10 13 11806 10245 4345 White 7
2 PM Wed 68 71 NNW 10 13 12021 11239 5339 White 8
3 PM Wed 67 69 NNW 10 13 11590 9022 3122 White 6
4 PM Wed 66 67 NNW 9 12 10447 8335 2435 Blue 4
5 PM Wed 65 65 NNW 9 12 8703 6016 116 Blue 2
6 PM Wed 62 62 N 9 11 6013 6007 107 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 60 60 E 9 10 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 57 57 SE 9 10 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 56 56 SE 10 11 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 55 55 ESE 10 11 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 55 55 ESE 11 12 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 54 54 ESE 11 12 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 54 54 ESE 10 11 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 54 54 ESE 10 11 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 53 53 ESE 10 11 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 52 52 E 11 11 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 52 52 E 11 12 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 54 54 E 11 13 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 55 55 E 12 16 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 57 57 E 12 17 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 59 61 E 13 18 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 61 64 E 14 19 8359 6007 107 Blue 1
11 AM Thu 63 67 E 16 20 10447 8335 2435 Blue 4
12 Noon Thu 64 68 E 16 20 11300 8676 2776 Blue 5
1 PM Thu 65 69 E 16 20 11590 9022 3122 White 6
2 PM Thu 65 68 E 16 19 11300 8676 2776 Blue 5
3 PM Thu 64 66 E 14 19 9053 6694 794 Blue 3
4 PM Thu 63 64 E 14 18 8359 6007 107 Blue 1
5 PM Thu 62 62 E 13 17 6013 6007 107 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 60 60 E 12 14 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 58 58 E 12 13 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 56 56 E 12 12 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 55 55 E 13 13 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 54 54 E 13 14 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 54 54 E 14 16 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 53 53 E 14 16 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 53 53 E 13 14 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 52 52 E 13 13 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 52 52 E 13 13 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 51 51 E 13 13 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 52 52 E 14 14 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 52 52 E 16 16 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 54 54 E 16 17 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 56 56 E 17 18 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 58 59 E 18 20 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 60 63 E 19 24 6705 6007 107 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 62 65 E 20 26 8703 6016 116 Blue 2
12 Noon Fri 63 67 E 20 27 10447 8335 2435 Blue 4
1 PM Fri 64 68 ESE 20 27 11300 8676 2776 Blue 5
2 PM Fri 64 67 ESE 20 26 10447 8335 2435 Blue 4
3 PM Fri 64 66 ESE 19 25 9053 6694 794 Blue 3
4 PM Fri 63 64 E 17 23 8359 6007 107 Blue 1
5 PM Fri 61 61 E 16 20 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 59 59 E 14 18 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 57 57 ESE 14 14 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 56 56 ESE 14 16 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 55 55 ESE 14 14 6007 6007 107 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 54 54 E 14 16 6007 6007 107 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com