Detailed Predictions for: Whetstone Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 5500
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

12Z 23 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sat 53 53 SW 10 6001 6001 101 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 53 53 SW 9 6001 6001 101 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 55 55 SW 9 6898 6001 101 Blue 1
9 AM Sat 60 61 S 9 10151 8843 2943 Blue 7
10 AM Sat 64 67 S 13 11577 10908 5008 Blue 13
11 AM Sat 66 70 SW 16 12762 11508 5608 Blue 16
12 Noon Sat 68 74 SW 20 13944 13070 7170 White 20
1 PM Sat 69 74 SW 21 13944 13070 7170 White 20
2 PM Sat 70 75 SW 22 14155 13525 7625 White 21
3 PM Sat 70 73 SW 22 13733 12678 6778 White 19
4 PM Sat 70 72 SW 22 13522 12291 6391 White 18
5 PM Sat 69 69 SW 20 12370 11221 5321 Blue 15
6 PM Sat 67 67 SW 18 11577 10908 5008 Blue 13
7 PM Sat 62 62 SW 16 10363 9344 3444 Blue 8
8 PM Sat 58 58 W 14 8930 6888 988 Blue 4
9 PM Sat 54 54 W 13 6185 6001 101 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 52 52 W 13 6001 6001 101 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 51 51 W 12 6001 6001 101 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 50 50 W 12 6001 6001 101 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 49 49 W 10 6001 6001 101 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 48 48 W 8 6001 6001 101 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 47 47 W 7 6001 6001 101 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 47 47 W 6 6001 6001 101 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 46 46 NW 5 6001 6001 101 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 45 45 NW 5 6001 6001 101 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 44 44 W 3 6001 6001 101 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 48 49 S 3 6001 6001 101 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 55 57 SE 3 7898 6184 284 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 60 64 S 3 10932 10124 4224 Blue 10
11 AM Sun 63 69 SW 3 12370 11221 5321 Blue 15
12 Noon Sun 66 72 SW 5 13522 12291 6391 White 18
1 PM Sun 68 74 SW 6 13944 13070 7170 White 20
2 PM Sun 69 74 W 7 13944 13070 7170 White 20
3 PM Sun 70 74 W 8 13944 13070 7170 White 20
4 PM Sun 70 72 W 10 13522 12291 6391 White 18
5 PM Sun 68 68 W 12 11973 11064 5164 Blue 14
6 PM Sun 67 67 NW 13 11577 10908 5008 Blue 13
7 PM Sun 62 62 NW 13 10363 9344 3444 Blue 8
8 PM Sun 57 57 NW 12 7898 6184 284 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 54 54 NW 10 6185 6001 101 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 52 52 NW 9 6001 6001 101 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 51 51 NW 9 6001 6001 101 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 50 50 NW 8 6001 6001 101 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 49 49 NW 7 6001 6001 101 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 48 48 NW 7 6001 6001 101 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 47 47 NW 6 6001 6001 101 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 47 47 W 5 6001 6001 101 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 46 46 SW 5 6001 6001 101 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 45 45 S 5 6001 6001 101 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 44 44 S 5 6001 6001 101 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 48 49 S 5 6001 6001 101 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 56 58 S 6 8930 6888 988 Blue 4
10 AM Mon 61 65 S 7 11089 10335 4435 Blue 11
11 AM Mon 64 70 SW 7 12762 11508 5608 Blue 16
12 Noon Mon 68 74 SW 8 13944 13070 7170 White 20
1 PM Mon 70 76 SW 9 14367 14367 8467 White 22
2 PM Mon 71 76 W 10 14367 14367 8467 White 22
3 PM Mon 72 76 W 12 14367 14367 8467 White 22
4 PM Mon 72 74 W 13 13944 13070 7170 White 20
5 PM Mon 70 70 W 13 12762 11508 5608 Blue 16
6 PM Mon 68 68 W 13 11973 11064 5164 Blue 14
7 PM Mon 64 64 W 12 10932 10124 4224 Blue 10
8 PM Mon 59 59 W 10 9385 7329 1429 Blue 5
9 PM Mon 56 56 NW 9 7345 6001 101 Blue 2
10 PM Mon 53 53 NW 8 6001 6001 101 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 53 53 NW 7 6001 6001 101 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 51 51 NW 6 6001 6001 101 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 50 50 NW 5 6001 6001 101 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 50 50 N 3 6001 6001 101 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 49 49 NE 3 6001 6001 101 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 48 48 E 3 6001 6001 101 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 47 47 E 5 6001 6001 101 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 46 46 SE 6 6001 6001 101 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 46 46 SE 6 6001 6001 101 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 51 SE 7 6001 6001 101 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 58 60 SE 7 9789 7859 1959 Blue 6
10 AM Tue 63 67 SE 7 11577 10908 5008 Blue 13
11 AM Tue 67 72 S 7 13522 12291 6391 White 18
12 Noon Tue 70 75 S 7 14155 13525 7625 White 21
1 PM Tue 72 77 S 7 14580 14580 8680 White 23
2 PM Tue 73 77 S 7 14580 14580 8680 White 23
3 PM Tue 74 77 S 7 14580 14580 8680 White 23
4 PM Tue 74 75 S 6 14155 13525 7625 White 21
5 PM Tue 73 73 SW 6 13733 12678 6778 White 19
6 PM Tue 71 71 SW 6 13172 11899 5999 Blue 17
7 PM Tue 66 66 SW 6 11247 10603 4703 Blue 12
8 PM Tue 62 62 S 6 10363 9344 3444 Blue 8
9 PM Tue 58 58 S 5 8930 6888 988 Blue 4
10 PM Tue 56 56 S 5 7345 6001 101 Blue 2
11 PM Tue 55 55 S 5 6898 6001 101 Blue 1
12 Midnight Wed 54 54 S 5 6185 6001 101 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 53 53 S 5 6001 6001 101 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 52 52 SE 5 6001 6001 101 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 52 52 SE 6 6001 6001 101 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 51 51 SE 6 6001 6001 101 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 50 50 SE 6 6001 6001 101 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 49 49 SE 7 6001 6001 101 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 49 49 SE 8 6001 6001 101 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 52 52 SE 8 6001 6001 101 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 60 61 SE 9 10151 8843 2943 Blue 7
10 AM Wed 65 68 SE 10 11973 11064 5164 Blue 14
11 AM Wed 68 72 SE 12 13522 12291 6391 White 18
12 Noon Wed 71 75 SE 12 14155 13525 7625 White 21
1 PM Wed 73 77 SE 12 14580 14580 8680 White 23
2 PM Wed 74 77 SE 12 14580 14580 8680 White 23
3 PM Wed 75 77 SE 12 14580 14580 8680 White 23
4 PM Wed 75 76 E 12 14367 14367 8467 White 22
5 PM Wed 74 74 E 12 13944 13070 7170 White 20
6 PM Wed 72 72 E 12 13522 12291 6391 White 18
7 PM Wed 68 68 E 13 11973 11064 5164 Blue 14
8 PM Wed 63 63 E 13 10677 9743 3843 Blue 9
9 PM Wed 60 60 E 14 9789 7859 1959 Blue 6
10 PM Wed 58 58 E 14 8930 6888 988 Blue 4
11 PM Wed 57 57 E 15 7898 6184 284 Blue 3
12 Midnight Thu 56 56 E 15 7345 6001 101 Blue 2
1 AM Thu 55 55 E 14 6898 6001 101 Blue 1
2 AM Thu 54 54 E 14 6185 6001 101 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 54 54 E 13 6185 6001 101 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 53 53 E 12 6001 6001 101 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 52 52 E 10 6001 6001 101 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 52 52 SE 9 6001 6001 101 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 51 51 SE 9 6001 6001 101 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 54 54 SE 9 6185 6001 101 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 62 63 SE 9 10677 9743 3843 Blue 9
10 AM Thu 66 69 SE 9 12370 11221 5321 Blue 15
11 AM Thu 69 72 SE 9 13522 12291 6391 White 18
12 Noon Thu 72 76 SE 9 14367 14367 8467 White 22
1 PM Thu 73 77 SE 8 14580 14580 8680 White 23
2 PM Thu 74 78 SE 8 14791 14791 8891 White 24
3 PM Thu 75 77 SE 7 14580 14580 8680 White 23
4 PM Thu 75 76 SE 7 14367 14367 8467 White 22
5 PM Thu 74 74 SE 7 13944 13070 7170 White 20
6 PM Thu 72 72 SE 7 13522 12291 6391 White 18
7 PM Thu 68 68 SE 8 11973 11064 5164 Blue 14
8 PM Thu 64 64 SE 10 10932 10124 4224 Blue 10
9 PM Thu 61 61 SE 13 10151 8843 2943 Blue 7
10 PM Thu 59 59 SE 15 9385 7329 1429 Blue 5
11 PM Thu 58 58 E 17 8930 6888 988 Blue 4
12 Midnight Fri 57 57 E 18 7898 6184 284 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 56 56 E 18 7345 6001 101 Blue 2
2 AM Fri 55 55 E 18 6898 6001 101 Blue 1
3 AM Fri 55 55 E 18 6898 6001 101 Blue 1
4 AM Fri 54 54 E 18 6185 6001 101 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 53 53 E 17 6001 6001 101 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com