Detailed Predictions for: Whetstone Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 31.7681, -110.4589, 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 5500
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

16 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 67 67 NNW 8 12 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 66 66 S 6 10 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 65 65 S 5 9 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 64 64 NNE 5 9 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 64 64 NE 5 9 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 64 64 ENE 6 10 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 64 64 ENE 6 10 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 62 62 ENE 8 12 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 69 70 ENE 8 12 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 72 75 ENE 6 10 9034 5900 0 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 74 78 E 6 10 15660 8967 3067 Blue 5
11 AM Thu 77 83 E 6 10 16421 15775 9875 Blue 9
12 Noon Thu 80 86 E 5 9 17039 16303 10403 Blue 12
1 PM Thu 80 86 W 5 9 17039 16303 10403 Blue 12
2 PM Thu 80 84 WSW 8 12 16766 15867 9967 Blue 10
3 PM Thu 80 82 W 6 10 16066 15706 9806 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 79 80 WNW 10 16 15800 14561 8661 Blue 6
5 PM Thu 77 77 SSW 12 19 15158 8191 2291 Blue 4
6 PM Thu 76 76 SSE 9 13 9775 7202 1302 Blue 3
7 PM Thu 72 72 SSE 8 12 5805 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 70 70 NW 5 9 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 68 68 NW 5 9 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 67 67 SE 6 10 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 66 66 NW 4 6 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 66 66 WNW 3 5 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 65 65 S 3 5 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 64 64 SSW 4 6 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 62 62 S 3 5 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 62 62 SSW 3 5 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 62 62 W 3 5 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 63 63 WNW 3 5 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 65 65 NW 3 5 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 68 68 WNW 4 6 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 70 71 NW 5 9 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 72 74 S 5 9 8242 5900 0 Blue 1
11 AM Fri 74 77 SSW 4 6 15158 8191 2291 Blue 4
12 Noon Fri 76 79 SSW 4 6 15728 9696 3796 Blue 6
1 PM Fri 77 80 ESE 4 6 15800 14561 8661 Blue 6
2 PM Fri 77 80 S 12 19 15800 14561 8661 Blue 6
3 PM Fri 76 78 SW 10 16 15660 8967 3067 Blue 5
4 PM Fri 74 75 ESE 12 19 9034 5900 0 Blue 2
5 PM Fri 72 72 SE 10 16 5805 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 70 70 WNW 12 19 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 68 68 WNW 11 17 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 66 66 S 11 17 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 65 65 SE 14 23 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 64 64 ESE 8 12 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 64 64 SSE 3 5 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 64 64 S 2 3 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 63 63 SSW 3 5 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 63 63 SW 4 6 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 62 62 WSW 4 6 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 61 61 W 4 6 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 62 62 WNW 4 6 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 63 63 NW 4 6 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 66 66 N 4 6 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 69 70 NNE 4 6 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 71 73 NE 5 9 7242 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 73 77 E 5 9 15158 8191 2291 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 76 81 E 6 10 15898 15638 9738 Blue 7
12 Noon Sat 77 83 E 6 10 16421 15775 9875 Blue 9
1 PM Sat 79 85 NE 8 12 16902 15965 10065 Blue 11
2 PM Sat 79 84 N 9 13 16766 15867 9967 Blue 10
3 PM Sat 79 82 NNW 10 16 16066 15706 9806 Blue 8
4 PM Sat 78 79 WNW 10 16 15728 9696 3796 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 76 76 W 11 17 9775 7202 1302 Blue 3
6 PM Sat 73 73 W 10 16 7242 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 71 71 W 10 16 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 69 69 WSW 9 13 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 67 67 SW 8 12 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 66 66 SSW 6 10 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 65 65 S 6 10 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 65 65 S 5 9 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 64 64 SSE 4 6 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 63 63 SSE 4 6 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 63 63 SSE 4 6 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 62 62 SSE 4 6 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 63 63 SSE 4 6 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 64 64 SSE 4 6 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 66 66 SSE 4 6 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 69 70 SSE 4 6 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 72 74 S 4 6 8242 5900 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 74 78 S 5 9 15660 8967 3067 Blue 5
11 AM Sun 76 82 S 5 9 16066 15706 9806 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 78 84 S 6 10 16766 15867 9967 Blue 10
1 PM Sun 80 86 SSW 9 13 17039 16303 10403 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 80 85 SSW 11 17 16902 15965 10065 Blue 11
3 PM Sun 80 84 SW 12 19 16766 15867 9967 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 79 81 WSW 13 20 15898 15638 9738 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 77 77 W 14 23 15158 8191 2291 Blue 4
6 PM Sun 75 75 W 14 23 9034 5900 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 72 72 W 13 20 5805 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 69 69 W 12 19 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 68 68 W 11 17 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 66 66 W 10 16 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 65 65 W 8 12 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 65 65 W 6 10 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 64 64 W 5 9 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 64 64 W 5 9 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 62 62 W 4 6 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 61 61 W 4 6 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 61 61 W 5 9 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 63 63 W 5 9 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 65 65 WSW 8 12 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 68 69 WSW 9 13 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 71 74 WSW 11 17 8242 5900 0 Blue 1
10 AM Mon 74 78 SW 13 20 15660 8967 3067 Blue 5
11 AM Mon 76 82 SW 14 23 16066 15706 9806 Blue 8
12 Noon Mon 77 84 SW 16 24 16766 15867 9967 Blue 10
1 PM Mon 78 85 WSW 17 26 16902 15965 10065 Blue 11
2 PM Mon 79 85 WSW 18 27 16902 15965 10065 Blue 11
3 PM Mon 79 83 WSW 19 29 16421 15775 9875 Blue 9
4 PM Mon 78 80 WSW 19 29 15800 14561 8661 Blue 6
5 PM Mon 77 78 W 19 29 15660 8967 3067 Blue 5
6 PM Mon 74 74 W 18 27 8242 5900 0 Blue 1
7 PM Mon 70 70 W 17 26 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 67 67 WSW 14 23 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 65 65 WSW 13 20 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 64 64 WSW 11 17 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 63 63 WSW 9 13 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 63 63 WSW 6 10 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 62 62 WSW 5 9 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 61 61 WSW 4 6 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 60 60 WSW 4 6 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 58 58 WSW 4 6 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 58 58 WSW 4 6 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 59 59 W 5 9 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 62 62 W 5 9 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 64 65 W 5 9 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 67 70 W 6 10 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 70 74 W 6 10 8242 5900 0 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 72 78 W 8 12 15660 8967 3067 Blue 5
12 Noon Tue 73 80 W 9 13 15800 14561 8661 Blue 6
1 PM Tue 75 82 W 10 16 16066 15706 9806 Blue 8
2 PM Tue 75 81 WNW 11 17 15898 15638 9738 Blue 7
3 PM Tue 76 80 WNW 12 19 15800 14561 8661 Blue 6
4 PM Tue 75 77 WNW 12 19 15158 8191 2291 Blue 4
5 PM Tue 74 75 WNW 13 20 9034 5900 0 Blue 2
6 PM Tue 71 71 WNW 12 19 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 68 68 W 12 19 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 65 65 W 11 17 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 63 63 WSW 10 16 4905 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 61 61 WSW 9 13 4905 5900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com