Detailed Predictions for: Whetstone Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 5500
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

26 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 46 46 SE 8 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 45 45 SE 8 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 47 47 SE 8 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 54 55 SE 8 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 57 60 SE 9 5739 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 61 64 SE 9 9133 6243 343 Blue 1
12 Noon Tue 64 68 SE 9 11994 9846 3946 Blue 5
1 PM Tue 67 70 SE 9 12521 11533 5633 Blue 7
2 PM Tue 71 74 S 10 15629 12659 6759 Blue 10
3 PM Tue 72 74 S 12 15629 12659 6759 Blue 10
4 PM Tue 72 73 SW 12 15321 12485 6585 Blue 9
5 PM Tue 72 72 SW 12 12861 12180 6280 Blue 8
6 PM Tue 70 70 W 12 12521 11533 5633 Blue 7
7 PM Tue 66 66 W 12 10799 7204 1304 Blue 3
8 PM Tue 62 62 W 12 6737 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 60 60 W 10 5739 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 59 59 W 9 5221 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 57 57 W 9 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 56 56 W 8 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 54 54 W 8 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 53 53 W 8 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 52 52 SW 8 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 51 51 SW 8 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 51 51 S 8 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 50 50 S 8 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 50 50 S 8 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 51 51 S 9 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 57 58 S 9 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 59 60 S 10 5739 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 62 64 SW 10 9133 6243 343 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 65 67 SW 12 11679 9056 3156 Blue 4
1 PM Wed 67 69 SW 13 12273 10665 4765 Blue 6
2 PM Wed 70 72 SW 14 12861 12180 6280 Blue 8
3 PM Wed 70 71 SW 14 12686 11971 6071 Blue 7
4 PM Wed 71 72 SW 15 12861 12180 6280 Blue 8
5 PM Wed 71 71 W 15 12686 11971 6071 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 68 68 W 15 11994 9846 3946 Blue 5
7 PM Wed 65 65 W 15 9937 6729 829 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 61 61 SW 14 6244 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 58 58 SW 13 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 56 56 SW 12 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 55 55 SW 10 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 53 53 SW 10 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 52 52 SW 9 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 50 50 SW 9 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 49 49 SW 8 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 48 48 S 8 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 48 48 S 8 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 48 48 S 8 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 48 48 S 8 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 49 50 SW 8 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 54 56 SW 9 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 57 61 SW 9 6244 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 60 65 W 10 9937 6729 829 Blue 2
12 Noon Thu 63 69 W 12 12273 10665 4765 Blue 6
1 PM Thu 65 71 W 13 12686 11971 6071 Blue 7
2 PM Thu 68 73 W 14 15321 12485 6585 Blue 9
3 PM Thu 69 72 W 16 12861 12180 6280 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 69 71 W 17 12686 11971 6071 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 69 69 W 18 12273 10665 4765 Blue 6
6 PM Thu 67 67 W 20 11679 9056 3156 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 63 63 W 20 7220 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 58 58 W 18 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 55 55 W 16 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 53 53 W 15 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 52 52 SW 13 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 50 50 SW 12 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 48 48 SW 12 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 46 46 SW 10 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 45 45 SW 10 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 44 44 SW 10 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 44 44 SW 10 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 44 44 SW 10 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 43 43 SW 10 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 44 45 SW 10 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 50 52 W 10 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 53 57 W 10 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 56 61 W 10 6244 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 59 65 NW 10 9937 6729 829 Blue 2
1 PM Fri 62 68 NW 13 11994 9846 3946 Blue 5
2 PM Fri 64 69 NW 14 12273 10665 4765 Blue 6
3 PM Fri 65 68 NW 15 11994 9846 3946 Blue 5
4 PM Fri 65 67 NW 17 11679 9056 3156 Blue 4
5 PM Fri 65 65 NW 18 9937 6729 829 Blue 2
6 PM Fri 63 63 NW 18 7220 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 60 60 W 17 5739 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 55 55 W 16 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 53 53 SW 15 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 51 51 SW 14 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 50 50 S 12 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 48 48 S 10 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 47 47 S 9 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 45 45 S 9 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 44 44 S 9 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 44 44 S 9 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 43 43 S 9 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 43 43 S 9 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 43 43 S 9 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 44 44 S 9 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 50 51 SE 9 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 52 54 E 9 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 56 59 E 9 5221 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 58 61 E 9 6244 5900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 61 64 E 10 9133 6243 343 Blue 1
2 PM Sat 64 67 NE 12 11679 9056 3156 Blue 4
3 PM Sat 64 66 NE 13 10799 7204 1304 Blue 3
4 PM Sat 65 66 NE 14 10799 7204 1304 Blue 3
5 PM Sat 65 65 NE 14 9937 6729 829 Blue 2
6 PM Sat 63 63 NE 15 7220 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 59 59 NE 15 5221 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 54 54 E 14 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 52 52 SE 13 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 50 50 SE 12 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 49 49 S 12 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 47 47 SW 10 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 45 45 S 10 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 44 44 S 10 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 43 43 SE 10 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 42 42 SE 10 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 42 42 E 12 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 42 42 E 12 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 41 41 E 12 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 42 43 E 12 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 48 50 E 12 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 50 53 E 12 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 53 58 E 13 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 56 61 E 13 6244 5900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 58 63 E 14 7220 5900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 60 65 NE 15 9937 6729 829 Blue 2
3 PM Sun 61 64 NE 16 9133 6243 343 Blue 1
4 PM Sun 62 64 NE 17 9133 6243 343 Blue 1
5 PM Sun 61 61 NE 18 6244 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 59 59 NE 20 5221 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 56 56 NE 18 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 52 52 N 18 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 50 50 N 17 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 48 48 NW 16 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 46 46 NW 15 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 45 45 NW 14 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 43 43 NW 13 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 42 42 N 12 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 41 41 N 10 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 40 40 NE 9 4961 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 40 40 E 8 4961 5900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com