Detailed Predictions for: Bates Beach
Launch Altitude (f): 50
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

18 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 53 33 N 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 52 32 N 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 52 32 N 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 54 34 N 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 62 43 N 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 66 48 N 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 67 50 NW 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 68 52 NW 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 68 52 NW 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 68 51 NW 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 68 50 NW 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 67 48 NW 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 66 46 NW 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 65 45 NW 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 62 42 NW 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 59 39 NW 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 57 37 NW 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 58 38 NW 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 58 38 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 55 35 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 55 35 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 53 33 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 53 33 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 51 31 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 52 32 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 50 30 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 50 30 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 52 32 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 62 43 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 66 48 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 67 50 W 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 68 52 W 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 68 52 W 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 68 52 W 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 68 51 W 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 67 48 W 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 67 47 N 13 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 66 46 N 13 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 63 43 N 13 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 61 41 N 13 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 59 39 N 13 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 60 40 N 13 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 59 39 N 15 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 58 38 N 15 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 57 37 N 15 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 56 36 N 15 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 55 35 N 15 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 54 34 N 15 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 54 34 N 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 53 33 N 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 53 33 N 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 55 35 N 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 65 46 N 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 69 51 N 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 70 53 NW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 71 55 NW 5 373 328 278 Blue 2
1 PM Sun 71 55 NW 5 373 328 278 Blue 2
2 PM Sun 71 55 NW 5 373 328 278 Blue 2
3 PM Sun 71 54 NW 5 343 328 278 Blue 1
4 PM Sun 70 51 NW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 69 49 NW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 68 48 NW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 65 45 NW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 62 42 NW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 60 40 NW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 61 41 NW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 61 41 N 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 58 38 N 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 58 38 N 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 56 36 N 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 56 36 N 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 54 34 N 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 55 35 N 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 53 33 N 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 53 33 N 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 56 36 N 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 67 48 N 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 72 54 N 9 343 328 278 Blue 1
11 AM Mon 73 56 NW 2 411 328 278 Blue 3
12 Noon Mon 75 59 NW 2 565 411 361 Blue 6
1 PM Mon 75 59 NW 2 565 411 361 Blue 6
2 PM Mon 75 59 NW 2 565 411 361 Blue 6
3 PM Mon 75 58 NW 2 486 373 323 Blue 5
4 PM Mon 74 55 NW 2 373 328 278 Blue 2
5 PM Mon 73 53 NW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 72 52 NW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 69 49 NW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 66 46 NW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 64 44 NW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 65 45 NW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 64 44 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 62 42 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 61 41 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 60 40 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 59 39 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 57 37 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 58 38 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 56 36 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 56 36 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 59 39 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 69 50 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 73 55 N 5 373 328 278 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 75 58 W 8 486 373 323 Blue 5
12 Noon Tue 76 60 W 8 663 448 398 Blue 7
1 PM Tue 76 60 W 8 663 448 398 Blue 7
2 PM Tue 76 60 W 8 663 448 398 Blue 7
3 PM Tue 76 59 W 8 565 411 361 Blue 6
4 PM Tue 75 56 W 8 411 328 278 Blue 3
5 PM Tue 74 54 W 8 343 328 278 Blue 1
6 PM Tue 73 53 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 69 49 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 65 45 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 63 43 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 64 44 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 63 43 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 61 41 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 60 40 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 58 38 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 57 37 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 56 36 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 56 36 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 54 34 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 54 34 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 56 36 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 65 46 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 69 51 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 70 53 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 71 55 W 9 373 328 278 Blue 2
1 PM Wed 71 55 W 9 373 328 278 Blue 2
2 PM Wed 71 55 W 9 373 328 278 Blue 2
3 PM Wed 71 54 W 9 343 328 278 Blue 1
4 PM Wed 70 51 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 69 49 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 68 48 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 66 46 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 63 43 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 61 41 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 62 42 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 61 41 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 59 39 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 58 38 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 57 37 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 57 37 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 55 35 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com