Detailed Predictions for: Bates Beach
Launch Altitude (f): 50
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

19 AUG 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 62 42 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 62 42 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 63 43 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 65 45 NE 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 67 47 NE 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 68 49 NE 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 69 51 SW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 70 53 SW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 72 55 SW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 71 54 SW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 71 53 SW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 69 50 SW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 70 51 W 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 68 48 W 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 66 46 W 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 65 45 W 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 65 45 W 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 64 44 W 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 64 44 NE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 64 44 NE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 64 44 NE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 64 44 E 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 63 43 E 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 62 42 E 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 62 42 E 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 62 42 E 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 63 43 E 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 65 45 SE 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 66 48 SE 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 67 51 SE 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 68 50 SW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 68 51 SW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 70 53 SW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 70 53 SW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 69 51 SW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 68 49 SW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 68 49 SW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 67 47 SW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 65 45 SW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 64 44 SW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 64 44 SW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 63 43 SW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 63 43 SE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 64 44 SE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 63 43 SE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 63 43 SE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 63 43 SE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 62 42 SE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 62 42 E 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 62 42 E 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 63 43 E 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 65 45 E 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 67 49 E 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 67 50 E 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 69 54 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 69 55 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 71 57 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 71 57 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 70 55 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 68 51 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 69 51 SW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 67 47 SW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 66 46 SW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 64 44 SW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 65 45 SW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 64 44 SW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 63 43 E 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 64 44 E 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 63 43 E 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 63 43 E 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 63 43 E 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 62 42 E 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 62 42 NW 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 62 42 NW 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 63 43 NW 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 65 45 NW 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 67 49 NW 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 68 52 NW 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 69 54 SW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 70 56 SW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 72 58 SW 8 319 319 269 White 0
2 PM Wed 71 57 SW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 71 56 SW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 69 52 SW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 70 52 SW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 68 48 SW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 66 46 SW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 65 45 SW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 65 45 SW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 64 44 SW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 64 44 NW 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 64 44 NW 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 64 44 NW 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 64 44 NW 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 63 43 NW 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 62 42 NW 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 62 42 NE 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 62 42 NE 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 63 43 NE 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 65 45 NE 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 67 49 NE 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 67 50 NE 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 69 54 SW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 69 56 SW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 71 58 SW 6 319 319 269 White 0
2 PM Thu 71 58 SW 6 319 319 269 White 0
3 PM Thu 70 56 SW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 68 52 SW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 69 51 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 67 48 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 66 46 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 64 44 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 65 45 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 64 44 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 63 43 NW 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 64 44 NW 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 63 43 NW 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 63 43 NW 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 63 43 NW 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 62 42 NW 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 62 42 NW 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 62 42 NW 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 63 43 NW 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 65 45 NW 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 67 49 NW 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 67 50 NW 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 69 54 W 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 69 56 W 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 71 58 W 6 319 319 269 White 0
2 PM Fri 71 58 W 6 319 319 269 White 0
3 PM Fri 70 56 W 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 68 52 W 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 69 51 W 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 67 48 W 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 66 46 W 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 64 44 W 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 65 45 W 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 64 44 W 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 63 43 NW 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 64 44 NW 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 63 43 NW 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 63 43 NW 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 63 43 NW 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 62 42 NW 3 0 50 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com