Detailed Predictions for: Bates Beach
Launch Altitude (f): 50
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

25 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Mon 54 34 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 58 38 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 58 38 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 61 41 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 68 49 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 76 59 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 80 64 SW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 78 63 SW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 70 56 SW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 62 47 W 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 58 42 W 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 56 38 W 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 56 37 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 56 36 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 56 36 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 56 36 NW 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 57 37 NW 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 59 39 NW 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 61 41 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 62 42 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 64 44 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 65 45 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 66 46 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 67 47 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 65 45 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 62 42 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 60 40 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 61 41 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 67 48 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 75 58 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 79 63 NW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 76 61 NW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 70 56 NW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 65 50 W 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 65 49 W 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 68 50 W 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 70 51 SW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 69 49 SW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 66 46 SW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 65 45 W 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 67 47 W 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 71 51 W 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 74 54 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 76 56 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 76 56 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 74 54 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 72 52 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 69 49 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 65 45 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 61 41 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 58 38 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 56 36 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 59 40 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 66 49 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 72 56 NE 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 73 58 NE 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 72 58 NE 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 72 57 SW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 74 58 SW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 76 58 SW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 75 56 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 72 52 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 68 48 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 65 45 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 63 43 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 62 42 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 62 42 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 61 41 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 60 40 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 58 38 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 57 37 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 56 36 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 57 37 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 59 39 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 62 42 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 65 45 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 69 50 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 72 55 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 74 58 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 76 61 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 76 62 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 76 61 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 74 58 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 72 54 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 70 51 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 68 48 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 66 46 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 65 45 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 63 43 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 61 41 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 60 40 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 58 38 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 58 38 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 57 37 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 57 37 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 58 38 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 60 40 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 63 43 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 66 46 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 70 50 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 74 55 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 77 60 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 79 63 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 80 65 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 80 66 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 78 63 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 77 61 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 74 56 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 72 53 SW 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 70 50 SW 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 69 49 SW 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 67 47 SW 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 65 45 SW 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 64 44 SW 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 62 42 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 60 40 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 59 39 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 58 38 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 57 37 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 57 37 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 59 39 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 61 41 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 65 45 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 69 49 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 73 54 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 76 59 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 79 63 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 80 65 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 80 66 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 79 64 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 78 62 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 76 58 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 74 55 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 72 52 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 70 50 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 68 48 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 66 46 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 64 44 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 62 42 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 60 40 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 58 38 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 57 37 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 57 37 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 57 37 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com