Detailed Predictions for: Bates Beach
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.37588399065184, -119.48016792184, 50
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

16 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 63 43 ENE 1 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 63 43 ENE 1 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 63 43 ESE 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 63 43 ESE 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 62 42 ESE 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 62 42 NE 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 62 42 NE 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 61 41 NE 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 62 42 SE 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 63 43 SE 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 63 43 SE 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 64 49 SW 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 64 50 SW 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 64 50 SW 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 64 50 WSW 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 64 49 WSW 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 63 46 WSW 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 61 42 WSW 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 60 40 WSW 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 58 38 WSW 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 58 38 WNW 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 58 38 WNW 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 57 37 WNW 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 57 37 ESE 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 56 36 ESE 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 56 36 ESE 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 56 36 ENE 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 56 36 ENE 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 55 35 ENE 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 55 35 ESE 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 55 35 ESE 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 54 34 ESE 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 58 38 SE 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 62 42 SE 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 63 43 SE 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 66 51 SSW 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 66 52 SSW 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 66 52 SSW 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 67 53 SW 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 66 51 SW 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 65 48 SW 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 62 43 SW 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 60 40 SW 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 58 38 SW 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 57 37 SW 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 57 37 SW 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 56 36 SW 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 56 36 SE 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 54 34 SE 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 54 34 SE 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 54 34 ENE 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 54 34 ENE 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 53 33 ENE 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 52 32 ENE 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 52 32 ENE 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 51 31 ENE 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 56 36 NNW 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 61 41 NNW 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 63 43 NNW 2 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 66 51 SW 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 66 52 SW 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 66 52 SW 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 67 53 WSW 8 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 66 51 WSW 8 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 65 48 WSW 8 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 62 43 WSW 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 60 40 WSW 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 58 38 WSW 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 57 37 WNW 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 57 37 WNW 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 57 37 WNW 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 56 36 NW 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 55 35 NW 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 55 35 NW 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 55 35 NNW 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 54 34 NNW 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 54 34 NNW 3 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 53 33 NNW 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 53 33 NNW 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 52 32 NNW 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 57 37 NNW 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 63 44 NNW 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 64 47 NNW 4 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 67 52 WSW 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 68 54 WSW 6 8 127 127 77 White 0
1 PM Sun 68 54 WSW 6 8 127 127 77 White 0
2 PM Sun 69 55 WSW 9 11 127 127 77 White 0
3 PM Sun 68 53 WSW 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 67 50 WSW 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 64 45 W 10 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 62 42 W 10 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 60 40 W 10 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 59 39 NW 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 59 39 NW 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 58 38 NW 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 58 38 NNW 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 56 36 NNW 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 56 36 NNW 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 56 36 N 8 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 56 36 N 8 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 55 35 N 8 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 54 34 N 8 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 54 34 N 8 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 53 33 N 8 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 59 39 NNE 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 65 46 NNE 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 67 50 NNE 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 70 54 S 6 8 127 127 77 White 0
12 Noon Mon 70 55 S 6 8 127 127 77 White 0
1 PM Mon 71 57 S 6 8 408 328 278 White 2
2 PM Mon 72 57 WSW 9 11 408 328 278 White 2
3 PM Mon 71 55 WSW 9 11 127 127 77 White 0
4 PM Mon 70 53 WSW 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 67 48 W 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 64 44 W 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 62 42 W 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 61 41 NW 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 61 41 NW 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 60 40 NW 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 60 40 NNE 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 58 38 NNE 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 58 38 NNE 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 58 38 ENE 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 58 38 ENE 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 57 37 ENE 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 56 36 NE 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 56 36 NE 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 55 35 NE 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 61 41 ENE 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 66 46 ENE 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 68 49 ENE 6 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 71 55 SSE 8 9 127 127 77 White 0
12 Noon Tue 71 56 SSE 8 9 188 188 138 White 0
1 PM Tue 72 58 SSE 8 9 627 328 278 White 3
2 PM Tue 73 58 S 9 11 627 328 278 White 3
3 PM Tue 72 56 S 9 11 188 188 138 White 0
4 PM Tue 71 54 S 9 11 127 127 77 White 0
5 PM Tue 68 49 WSW 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 65 45 WSW 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 63 43 WSW 9 11 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 62 42 WNW 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 62 42 WNW 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 61 41 WNW 5 6 0 50 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com