Detailed Predictions for: Bates Beach
Launch Altitude (f): 50
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

16 OCT 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 51 31 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 51 31 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 50 30 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 52 32 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 60 41 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 65 47 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 67 50 NW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 68 52 NW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 69 53 NW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 69 53 W 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 69 52 W 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 69 51 W 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 68 48 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 64 44 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 62 42 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 61 41 NE 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 58 38 NE 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 56 36 NE 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 54 34 NE 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 53 33 NE 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 51 31 NE 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 51 31 NE 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 49 29 NE 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 49 29 NE 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 51 31 E 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 51 31 E 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 49 29 E 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 51 31 E 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 60 41 E 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 65 47 E 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 68 51 W 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 69 53 W 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 70 54 W 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 69 53 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 70 53 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 70 51 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 69 49 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 65 45 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 64 44 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 62 42 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 60 40 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 58 38 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 57 37 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 55 35 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 54 34 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 54 34 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 52 32 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 52 32 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 53 33 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 53 33 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 52 32 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 54 34 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 61 42 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 66 48 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 68 51 SW 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 69 53 SW 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 70 55 SW 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 70 54 SW 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 70 53 SW 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 70 52 SW 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 69 49 NW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 65 45 NW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 64 44 NW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 63 43 NW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 60 40 NW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 59 39 NW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 57 37 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 56 36 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 54 34 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 54 34 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 53 33 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 53 33 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 55 35 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 55 35 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 53 33 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 55 35 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 64 45 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 69 51 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 72 55 NE 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 73 57 NE 1 348 328 278 Blue 2
1 PM Fri 74 59 NE 1 372 336 286 Blue 4
2 PM Fri 73 57 NE 1 348 328 278 Blue 2
3 PM Fri 74 57 NE 1 348 328 278 Blue 2
4 PM Fri 74 56 NE 1 336 328 278 Blue 1
5 PM Fri 73 53 W 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 69 49 W 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 68 48 W 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 66 46 W 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 64 44 W 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 62 42 W 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 61 41 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 59 39 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 58 38 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 58 38 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 56 36 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 56 36 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 57 37 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 57 37 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 56 36 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 58 38 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 64 44 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 68 50 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 70 53 E 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 71 54 E 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 72 56 E 6 336 328 278 Blue 1
2 PM Sat 72 55 E 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 72 54 E 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 72 53 E 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 71 51 W 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 69 49 W 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 68 48 W 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 67 47 W 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 66 46 W 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 65 45 W 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 64 44 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 63 43 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 62 42 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 62 42 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 61 41 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 61 41 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 62 42 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 62 42 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 61 41 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 62 42 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 66 46 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 68 49 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 69 52 SE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 70 53 SE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 70 53 SE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 70 53 SE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 70 52 SE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 70 51 SE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 69 49 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 67 47 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 67 47 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 66 46 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 64 44 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 63 43 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 63 43 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 62 42 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 61 41 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 61 41 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 60 40 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 60 40 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com