Detailed Predictions for: Bates Beach
Launch Altitude (f): 50
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

16 FEB 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sat 42 22 N 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 42 22 N 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 44 24 N 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 44 24 N 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 47 27 N 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 51 32 N 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 53 34 NW 18 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 56 38 NW 18 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 58 40 NW 18 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 56 38 NW 18 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 57 39 NW 18 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 57 38 NW 18 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 56 36 NW 18 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 54 34 NW 18 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 53 33 NW 18 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 50 30 NW 18 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 48 28 NW 18 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 47 27 NW 18 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 46 26 NW 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 46 26 NW 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 46 26 NW 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 45 25 NW 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 44 24 NW 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 42 22 NW 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 42 22 NW 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 42 22 NW 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 44 24 NW 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 44 24 NW 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 46 26 NW 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 49 29 NW 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 51 31 NW 17 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 52 33 NW 17 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 54 35 NW 17 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 52 33 NW 17 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 53 34 NW 17 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 53 33 NW 17 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 53 33 NW 16 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 51 31 NW 16 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 49 29 NW 16 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 47 27 NW 16 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 44 24 NW 16 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 44 24 NW 16 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 43 23 N 13 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 43 23 N 13 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 43 23 N 13 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 42 22 N 13 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 41 21 N 13 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 40 20 N 13 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 39 19 N 13 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 39 19 N 13 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 42 22 N 13 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 41 21 N 13 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 45 25 N 13 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 49 30 N 13 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 52 34 NW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 54 37 NW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 57 40 NW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 55 38 NW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 56 38 NW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 55 36 NW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 55 35 NW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 53 33 NW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 50 30 NW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 47 27 NW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 44 24 NW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 44 24 NW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 42 22 N 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 42 22 N 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 42 22 N 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 41 21 N 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 39 19 N 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 37 17 N 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 37 17 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 37 17 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 40 20 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 40 20 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 43 23 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 49 30 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 52 34 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 55 38 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 58 42 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 56 39 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 57 40 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 56 37 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 56 36 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 53 33 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 51 31 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 48 28 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 45 25 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 44 24 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 43 23 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 42 22 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 43 23 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 41 21 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 39 19 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 38 18 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 37 17 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 38 18 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 40 20 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 40 20 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 43 23 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 48 29 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 51 32 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 54 36 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 57 39 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 55 37 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 56 38 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 56 37 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 55 35 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 53 33 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 52 32 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 49 29 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 47 27 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 46 26 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 45 25 NW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 45 25 NW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 45 25 NW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 44 24 NW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 43 23 NW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 41 21 NW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 41 21 NW 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 41 21 NW 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 43 23 NW 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 43 23 NW 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 45 25 NW 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 48 28 NW 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 50 31 NW 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 52 34 NW 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 54 36 NW 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 53 35 NW 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 53 34 NW 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 53 34 NW 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 53 33 NW 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 51 31 NW 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 50 30 NW 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 48 28 NW 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 46 26 NW 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 46 26 NW 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 45 25 NW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 45 25 NW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 45 25 NW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 44 24 NW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 43 23 NW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 42 22 NW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com