Detailed Predictions for: Bates Beach
Launch Altitude (f): 50
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

19 JUN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 54 34 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 54 34 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 57 37 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 60 40 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 61 41 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 61 41 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 63 50 S 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 64 52 S 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 66 54 S 5 395 328 278 Blue 1
2 PM Tue 67 55 W 9 759 328 278 White 2
3 PM Tue 67 53 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 67 52 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 66 49 W 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 64 45 W 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 63 43 W 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 62 42 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 61 41 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 61 41 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 60 40 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 60 40 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 59 39 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 58 38 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 58 38 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 57 37 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 56 36 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 56 36 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 58 38 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 61 42 NE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 62 45 NE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 62 47 NE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 64 51 S 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 65 53 S 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 66 54 S 5 395 328 278 Blue 1
2 PM Wed 67 55 SW 9 759 328 278 White 2
3 PM Wed 67 53 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 67 52 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 66 49 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 64 45 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 63 43 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 63 43 SW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 62 42 SW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 62 42 SW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 62 42 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 61 41 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 61 41 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 60 40 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 60 40 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 59 39 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 58 38 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 58 38 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 60 40 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 63 44 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 63 46 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 63 48 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 65 52 S 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 66 54 S 2 395 328 278 Blue 1
1 PM Thu 67 56 S 2 978 328 278 White 3
2 PM Thu 68 56 SW 9 978 328 278 White 3
3 PM Thu 68 55 SW 9 759 328 278 White 2
4 PM Thu 68 53 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 67 50 SW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 65 46 SW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 64 44 SW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 64 44 SW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 63 43 SW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 63 43 SW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 63 43 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 62 42 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 62 42 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 61 41 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 61 41 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 60 40 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 59 39 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 59 39 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 61 41 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 64 45 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 64 47 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 64 49 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 66 53 SW 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 67 55 SW 10 759 328 278 White 2
1 PM Fri 68 57 SW 10 1197 394 344 White 4
2 PM Fri 69 57 SW 10 1197 394 344 White 4
3 PM Fri 69 56 SW 10 978 328 278 White 3
4 PM Fri 69 54 SW 10 395 328 278 Blue 1
5 PM Fri 68 51 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 65 46 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 63 43 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 62 42 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 61 41 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 61 41 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 61 41 NE 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 60 40 NE 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 59 39 NE 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 58 38 NE 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 58 38 NE 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 56 36 NE 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 56 36 E 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 55 35 E 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 58 38 E 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 61 41 E 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 62 42 E 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 62 43 E 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 64 51 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 65 53 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 67 55 SW 9 759 328 278 White 2
2 PM Sat 68 56 SW 9 978 328 278 White 3
3 PM Sat 68 54 SW 9 395 328 278 Blue 1
4 PM Sat 68 53 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 67 50 W 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 65 46 W 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 64 44 W 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 64 44 W 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 63 43 W 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 63 43 W 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 63 43 SE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 62 42 SE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 62 42 SE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 61 41 SE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 61 41 SE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 60 40 SE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 59 39 E 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 59 39 E 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 61 41 E 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 63 43 E 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 64 44 E 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 64 45 E 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 65 52 S 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 66 54 S 10 395 328 278 Blue 1
1 PM Sun 67 55 S 10 759 328 278 White 2
2 PM Sun 68 56 S 10 978 328 278 White 3
3 PM Sun 68 54 S 10 395 328 278 Blue 1
4 PM Sun 68 53 S 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 67 50 S 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 65 46 S 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 64 44 S 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 64 44 S 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 63 43 S 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 63 43 S 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 63 43 SE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 62 42 SE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 62 42 SE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 61 41 SE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 61 41 SE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 60 40 SE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com