Detailed Predictions for: Bates Beach
Launch Altitude (f): 50
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

24 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 57 37 SE 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 57 37 SE 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 58 38 SE 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 61 41 SE 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 64 44 SE 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 65 45 SE 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 67 52 S 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 68 54 S 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 68 54 S 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 69 55 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 69 54 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 68 51 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 67 49 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 65 45 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 64 44 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 62 42 S 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 62 42 S 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 61 41 S 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 60 40 NE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 59 39 NE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 58 38 NE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 58 38 E 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 57 37 E 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 57 37 E 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 56 36 NE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 56 36 NE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 57 37 NE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 61 41 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 64 46 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 66 49 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 68 53 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 69 55 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 69 56 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 69 55 W 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 70 55 W 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 69 53 W 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 68 50 W 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 66 46 W 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 65 45 W 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 63 43 NW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 63 43 NW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 62 42 NW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 61 41 E 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 60 40 E 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 59 39 E 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 59 39 E 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 58 38 E 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 58 38 E 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 57 37 E 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 57 37 E 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 58 38 E 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 62 42 E 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 64 44 E 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 66 46 E 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 68 51 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 69 53 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 69 54 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 69 53 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 70 54 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 69 51 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 68 49 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 67 47 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 66 46 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 64 44 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 63 43 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 62 42 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 61 41 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 60 40 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 60 40 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 60 40 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 59 39 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 59 39 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 58 38 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 58 38 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 59 39 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 62 42 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 64 44 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 66 46 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 67 53 W 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 68 55 W 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 68 56 W 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 69 56 W 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 69 55 W 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 68 52 W 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 67 49 W 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 66 47 W 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 65 45 W 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 63 43 W 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 62 42 W 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 61 41 W 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 60 40 SE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 59 39 SE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 59 39 SE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 59 39 SE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 58 38 SE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 58 38 SE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 57 37 SE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 57 37 SE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 58 38 SE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 61 41 SE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 64 44 SE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 65 45 SE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 67 53 W 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 68 55 W 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 68 56 W 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 69 56 W 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 69 55 W 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 68 52 W 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 67 49 W 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 66 47 W 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 65 45 W 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 63 43 W 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 63 43 W 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 62 42 W 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 61 41 NW 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 60 40 NW 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 60 40 NW 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 60 40 NW 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 59 39 NW 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 59 39 NW 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 58 38 NW 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 58 38 NW 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 59 39 NW 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 62 42 NW 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 64 44 NW 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 66 46 NW 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 67 53 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 68 55 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 68 56 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 69 56 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 69 55 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 68 52 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 67 49 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 66 47 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 65 45 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 63 43 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 62 42 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 61 41 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 60 40 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 59 39 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 59 39 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 59 39 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 58 38 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 58 38 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com