Detailed Predictions for: Bates Beach
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.37588399065184, -119.48016792184, 50
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Fri 50 30 N 7 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 48 28 N 7 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 46 26 N 7 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 47 27 N 7 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 48 28 N 7 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 49 29 N 7 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 49 29 N 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 49 29 NNE 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 52 32 NNE 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 56 38 ENE 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 62 45 SE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 68 52 WSW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 69 54 SW 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 69 53 WSW 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 69 52 W 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 68 50 W 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 68 49 W 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 70 50 W 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 66 46 SSW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 65 45 ESE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 65 45 NNE 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 62 42 NNE 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 59 39 N 7 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 61 41 N 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 55 35 N 8 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 54 34 N 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 53 33 NNE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 52 32 NNE 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 51 31 NNE 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 52 32 N 7 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 50 30 NNE 8 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 50 30 NNE 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 50 30 NNE 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 54 36 ESE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 59 42 SW 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 63 47 NNW 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 64 49 NNW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 65 49 NNW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 66 49 NNW 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 66 48 SW 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 66 47 ESE 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 64 44 N 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 64 44 N 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 63 43 N 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 59 39 NNE 10 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 60 40 NNE 10 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 58 38 NNE 10 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 51 31 NNE 11 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 52 32 NNE 10 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 48 28 NNE 9 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 40 20 NNE 8 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 44 24 NNE 8 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 43 23 NNE 7 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 43 23 N 7 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 44 24 NNE 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 45 25 NNE 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 47 27 NNE 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 52 34 ENE 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 58 41 E 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 64 48 S 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 64 49 SSE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 65 49 SSE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 67 50 SSW 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 65 47 SSW 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 63 44 WSW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 63 43 SW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 60 40 S 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 59 39 ESE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 57 37 N 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 55 35 SE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 53 33 WSW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 50 30 NNE 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com