Detailed Predictions for: Bates Beach
Launch Altitude (f): 50
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

17 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 59 39 NW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 57 37 NW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 56 36 NW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 57 37 NW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 59 39 NW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 61 41 NW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 64 45 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 65 47 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 66 48 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 66 47 W 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 65 46 W 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 64 44 W 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 63 43 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 62 42 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 61 41 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 60 40 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 59 39 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 59 39 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 58 38 NE 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 58 38 NE 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 58 38 NE 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 57 37 NE 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 56 36 NE 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 55 35 NE 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 54 34 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 53 33 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 52 32 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 53 33 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 57 37 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 63 44 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 66 48 SW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 67 50 SW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 63 46 SW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 58 40 SW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 56 38 SW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 56 37 SW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 58 38 W 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 61 41 W 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 64 44 W 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 66 46 W 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 66 46 W 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 66 46 W 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 66 46 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 66 46 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 66 46 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 66 46 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 64 44 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 62 42 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 58 38 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 53 33 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 50 30 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 50 30 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 52 32 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 56 37 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 60 42 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 63 45 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 65 47 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 66 48 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 66 47 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 65 45 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 64 44 NW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 63 43 NW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 64 44 NW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 64 44 NW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 64 44 NW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 64 44 NW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 64 44 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 63 43 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 62 42 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 62 42 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 61 41 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 61 41 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 59 39 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 58 38 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 56 36 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 55 35 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 55 35 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 57 38 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 58 39 W 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 60 42 W 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 62 44 W 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 63 45 W 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 65 46 W 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 66 46 W 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 66 46 W 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 66 46 W 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 65 45 W 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 64 44 W 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 62 42 W 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 61 41 W 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 60 40 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 58 38 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 58 38 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 57 37 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 57 37 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 57 37 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 58 38 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 60 40 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 62 42 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 64 44 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 66 46 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 67 48 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 69 50 NW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 69 51 NW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 69 51 NW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 68 50 NW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 67 48 NW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 66 46 NW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 65 45 NW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 64 44 NW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 63 43 NW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 63 43 NW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 62 42 NW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 61 41 NW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 60 40 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 60 40 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 59 39 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 58 38 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 58 38 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 58 38 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 59 39 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 61 41 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 63 43 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 66 46 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 68 48 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 71 52 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 72 54 NW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 73 55 NW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 73 56 NW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 72 54 NW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 71 52 NW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 69 50 NW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 68 48 NW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 66 46 NW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 65 45 NW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 64 44 NW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 63 43 NW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 62 42 NW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 61 41 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 60 40 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 59 39 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 58 38 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 58 38 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 58 38 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com