Detailed Predictions for: Bates Beach
Launch Altitude (f): 50
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

14 DEC 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 48 28 E 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 48 28 E 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 49 29 E 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 48 28 E 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 51 31 E 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 58 38 E 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 62 42 E 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 63 43 E 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 65 45 E 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 65 45 SE 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 64 44 SE 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 63 43 SE 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 62 42 SE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 59 39 SE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 58 38 SE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 57 37 SE 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 56 36 SE 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 56 36 SE 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 56 36 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 55 35 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 53 33 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 52 32 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 52 32 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 51 31 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 50 30 NE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 50 30 NE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 51 31 NE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 50 30 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 53 33 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 58 38 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 61 42 SE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 62 44 SE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 64 46 SE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 64 46 S 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 63 44 S 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 63 43 S 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 62 42 SE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 59 39 SE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 58 38 SE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 57 37 SE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 56 36 SE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 56 36 SE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 56 36 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 55 35 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 53 33 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 53 33 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 53 33 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 52 32 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 51 31 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 51 31 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 52 32 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 51 31 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 53 33 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 59 39 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 62 43 SE 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 62 43 SE 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 64 45 SE 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 64 45 SE 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 63 44 SE 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 62 42 SE 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 61 41 SE 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 58 38 SE 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 57 37 SE 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 56 36 SE 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 55 35 SE 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 55 35 SE 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 55 35 E 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 54 34 E 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 52 32 E 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 51 31 E 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 51 31 E 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 50 30 E 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 49 29 NW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 49 29 NW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 50 30 NW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 49 29 NW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 52 32 NW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 57 37 NW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 60 40 SW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 61 41 SW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 63 44 SW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 63 43 SW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 62 42 SW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 62 42 SW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 61 41 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 58 38 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 57 37 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 56 36 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 55 35 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 55 35 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 55 35 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 54 34 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 52 32 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 52 32 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 52 32 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 51 31 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 50 30 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 50 30 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 51 31 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 50 30 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 53 33 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 58 38 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 61 42 S 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 62 44 S 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 64 46 S 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 64 46 S 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 63 44 S 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 63 43 S 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 62 42 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 59 39 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 58 38 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 57 37 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 56 36 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 56 36 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 56 36 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 55 35 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 53 33 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 53 33 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 53 33 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 52 32 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 51 31 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 51 31 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 52 32 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 51 31 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 55 35 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 64 45 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 69 50 SE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 70 52 SE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 73 55 SE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 73 55 SE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 72 53 SE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 71 51 SE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 69 49 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 65 45 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 63 43 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 61 41 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 60 40 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 60 40 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 60 40 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 59 39 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 56 36 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 55 35 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 54 34 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 54 34 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com