Detailed Predictions for: Bates Beach
Launch Altitude (f): 50
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 53 33 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 52 32 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 53 33 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 56 36 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 58 38 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 59 39 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 59 43 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 60 44 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 61 46 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 62 46 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 62 45 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 62 44 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 61 42 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 61 41 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 60 40 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 59 39 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 58 38 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 58 38 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 57 37 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 56 36 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 56 36 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 55 35 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 55 35 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 54 34 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 54 34 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 53 33 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 54 34 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 57 37 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 59 39 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 60 40 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 60 44 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 62 46 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 63 48 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 64 48 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 64 47 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 63 45 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 63 44 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 62 42 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 61 41 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 59 39 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 59 39 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 58 38 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 57 37 W 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 56 36 W 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 55 35 W 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 54 34 W 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 53 33 W 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 53 33 W 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 52 32 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 51 31 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 52 32 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 57 37 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 59 39 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 61 41 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 61 45 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 63 47 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 65 49 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 66 50 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 66 49 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 65 47 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 65 46 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 64 44 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 63 43 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 61 41 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 61 41 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 60 40 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 59 39 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 58 38 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 57 37 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 56 36 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 55 35 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 55 35 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 54 34 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 53 33 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 54 34 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 57 37 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 59 39 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 60 41 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 60 43 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 62 46 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 63 47 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 64 48 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 64 47 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 64 46 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 63 44 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 62 42 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 61 41 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 59 39 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 59 39 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 58 38 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 57 37 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 56 36 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 56 36 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 55 35 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 54 34 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 53 33 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 53 33 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 52 32 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 53 33 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 55 35 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 57 37 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 58 38 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 58 41 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 59 42 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 60 44 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 61 44 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 61 44 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 61 43 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 60 41 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 59 39 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 58 38 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 57 37 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 57 37 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 56 36 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 55 35 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 54 34 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 54 34 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 54 34 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 53 33 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 52 32 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 52 32 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 51 31 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 52 32 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 55 35 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 57 37 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 58 38 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 58 43 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 60 46 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 61 47 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 62 48 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 62 47 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 61 44 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 61 42 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 60 40 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 58 38 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 57 37 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 56 36 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 55 35 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 54 34 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 53 33 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 52 32 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 52 32 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 50 30 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 50 30 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com