Detailed Predictions for: Blackhawk
Launch Altitude (f): 6280
LZ Altitude (f): 3700
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

14 DEC 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 36 36 S 3 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 36 36 S 3 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 37 37 S 3 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 39 39 SW 5 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 42 42 SW 5 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 46 46 S 3 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 49 49 SE 2 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 51 51 E 2 5472 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 51 51 E 2 5472 6280 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 50 50 N 2 5204 6280 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 49 49 NW 3 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 49 49 NW 3 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 49 49 W 2 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 50 50 SW 3 5204 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 51 51 SW 7 5472 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 52 52 SW 7 5739 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 52 52 SW 6 5739 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 52 52 SW 6 5739 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 52 52 SW 8 5739 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 52 52 SW 8 5739 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 51 51 SW 7 5472 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 48 48 W 6 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 46 46 W 6 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 43 43 W 5 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 40 40 W 5 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 38 38 SW 5 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 38 38 W 5 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 40 40 SW 3 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 43 43 SW 3 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 48 48 S 3 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 52 53 E 3 6004 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 54 56 E 5 6793 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 53 55 E 6 6531 6280 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 53 55 E 6 6531 6280 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 53 54 E 6 6269 6280 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 52 52 E 5 5739 6280 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 52 52 E 3 5739 6280 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 52 52 E 3 5739 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 51 51 SE 2 5472 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 50 50 S 2 5204 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 49 49 S 2 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 47 47 S 2 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 46 46 S 2 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 44 44 S 3 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 43 43 S 3 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 43 43 S 3 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 43 43 S 3 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 43 43 S 3 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 42 42 S 3 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 41 41 S 5 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 40 40 S 5 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 40 40 SE 5 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 43 43 SE 5 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 47 47 E 3 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 51 52 E 3 5739 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 53 54 NE 3 6269 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 54 55 NE 5 6531 6280 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 55 56 NE 6 6793 6280 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 54 55 NE 5 6531 6280 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 55 55 N 3 6531 6280 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 54 54 NW 3 6269 6280 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 52 52 NW 5 5739 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 50 50 W 7 5204 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 49 49 SW 9 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 49 49 SW 12 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 49 49 SW 13 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 49 49 SW 14 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 48 48 SW 15 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 47 47 SW 16 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 45 45 SW 16 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 43 43 SW 15 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 41 41 W 14 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 40 40 W 13 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 42 42 W 13 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 46 46 W 13 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 49 49 SW 18 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 49 49 SW 18 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 47 47 SW 18 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 46 48 W 13 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 47 49 W 13 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 49 51 W 13 5472 6280 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 50 52 W 14 5739 6280 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 50 51 W 14 5472 6280 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 49 49 W 14 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 47 47 W 14 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 46 46 W 14 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 44 44 W 14 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 42 42 W 13 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 41 41 W 13 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 41 41 W 13 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 40 40 NW 8 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 40 40 NW 8 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 39 39 NW 8 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 38 38 N 3 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 38 38 N 3 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 37 37 N 3 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 36 36 N 5 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 36 36 N 5 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 36 36 N 5 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 38 38 N 3 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 40 40 N 3 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 42 42 N 3 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 44 45 N 6 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 46 48 N 6 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 47 49 N 6 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 48 50 N 7 5204 6280 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 49 50 N 7 5204 6280 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 49 49 N 7 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 49 49 N 5 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 49 49 N 5 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 49 49 N 5 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 48 48 NE 3 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 46 46 NE 3 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 44 44 NE 3 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 41 41 NE 3 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 39 39 NE 3 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 39 39 NE 3 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 39 39 NE 5 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 40 40 NE 5 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 41 41 NE 5 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 42 42 E 3 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 42 42 E 3 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 42 42 E 3 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 43 43 E 5 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 46 46 E 5 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 50 51 E 5 5472 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 52 53 E 6 6004 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 54 56 E 6 6793 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 55 57 E 6 7083 6280 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 56 58 E 6 7456 6524 244 Blue 1
2 PM Wed 56 57 E 6 7083 6280 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 57 57 E 6 7083 6280 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 56 56 E 6 6793 6280 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 54 54 E 6 6269 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 50 50 E 6 5204 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 47 47 E 8 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 45 45 E 8 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 44 44 E 8 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 44 44 SE 9 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 43 43 SE 9 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 42 42 SE 9 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 41 41 SE 9 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 41 41 SE 9 5000 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 42 42 SE 9 5000 6280 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com