Detailed Predictions for: Blackhawk
Launch Altitude (f): 6280
LZ Altitude (f): 3700
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

23 FEB 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 27 27 W 33 7518 7518 1238 White 9
5 AM Fri 25 25 W 32 7083 6280 0 White 7
6 AM Fri 24 24 W 29 6865 6280 0 White 6
7 AM Fri 23 23 W 25 6227 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 23 23 W 22 6227 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 24 25 W 20 7083 6280 0 White 7
10 AM Fri 26 29 W 17 7951 7951 1671 White 11
11 AM Fri 27 30 W 18 8168 8168 1888 White 11
12 Noon Fri 29 33 W 18 8817 8817 2537 White 14
1 PM Fri 31 34 W 20 9032 8915 2635 White 15
2 PM Fri 32 34 NW 20 9032 8915 2635 White 15
3 PM Fri 32 33 NW 20 8817 8817 2537 White 14
4 PM Fri 32 32 NW 18 8601 8601 2321 White 13
5 PM Fri 32 32 NW 16 8601 8601 2321 White 13
6 PM Fri 30 30 NW 15 8168 8168 1888 White 11
7 PM Fri 27 27 NW 13 7518 7518 1238 White 9
8 PM Fri 26 26 NW 12 7301 6280 0 White 8
9 PM Fri 24 24 NW 9 6865 6280 0 White 6
10 PM Fri 23 23 NW 8 6227 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 22 22 NW 6 6025 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 21 21 W 5 5823 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 21 21 W 3 5823 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 21 21 W 3 5823 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 22 22 W 3 6025 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 22 22 W 5 6025 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 24 24 W 3 6865 6280 0 White 6
6 AM Sat 25 25 W 3 7083 6280 0 White 7
7 AM Sat 27 27 W 3 7518 7518 1238 White 9
8 AM Sat 29 29 W 3 7951 7951 1671 White 11
9 AM Sat 31 33 NW 5 8817 8817 2537 White 14
10 AM Sat 34 37 NW 6 9504 9203 2923 Blue 18
11 AM Sat 37 41 NW 9 9970 9587 3307 Blue 22
12 Noon Sat 40 44 W 14 10421 9951 3671 Blue 25
1 PM Sat 43 47 W 18 10995 10392 4112 Blue 28
2 PM Sat 44 47 W 21 10995 10392 4112 Blue 28
3 PM Sat 44 45 W 23 10599 10076 3796 Blue 26
4 PM Sat 45 45 W 25 10599 10076 3796 Blue 26
5 PM Sat 43 43 W 30 10243 9823 3543 Blue 24
6 PM Sat 42 42 W 33 10096 9685 3405 Blue 23
7 PM Sat 40 40 W 35 9843 9491 3211 Blue 21
8 PM Sat 38 38 W 33 9601 9299 3019 Blue 19
9 PM Sat 37 37 W 31 9504 9203 2923 Blue 18
10 PM Sat 35 35 W 26 9248 9011 2731 White 16
11 PM Sat 34 34 W 20 9032 8915 2635 White 15
12 Midnight Sun 32 32 W 13 8601 8601 2321 White 13
1 AM Sun 30 30 NW 7 8168 8168 1888 White 11
2 AM Sun 28 28 NW 5 7735 7735 1455 White 10
3 AM Sun 27 27 N 2 7518 7518 1238 White 9
4 AM Sun 26 26 N 2 7301 6280 0 White 8
5 AM Sun 26 26 N 2 7301 6280 0 White 8
6 AM Sun 26 26 NE 2 7301 6280 0 White 8
7 AM Sun 27 27 E 2 7518 7518 1238 White 9
8 AM Sun 29 29 E 3 7951 7951 1671 White 11
9 AM Sun 31 33 E 3 8817 8817 2537 White 14
10 AM Sun 33 36 E 5 9408 9107 2827 Blue 17
11 AM Sun 35 39 NE 5 9705 9395 3115 Blue 20
12 Noon Sun 38 42 NE 5 10096 9685 3405 Blue 23
1 PM Sun 40 44 NE 6 10421 9951 3671 Blue 25
2 PM Sun 41 44 NE 5 10421 9951 3671 Blue 25
3 PM Sun 42 43 NE 5 10243 9823 3543 Blue 24
4 PM Sun 43 43 NE 3 10243 9823 3543 Blue 24
5 PM Sun 44 44 E 5 10421 9951 3671 Blue 25
6 PM Sun 44 44 S 5 10421 9951 3671 Blue 25
7 PM Sun 44 44 SW 6 10421 9951 3671 Blue 25
8 PM Sun 42 42 SW 6 10096 9685 3405 Blue 23
9 PM Sun 39 39 SW 6 9705 9395 3115 Blue 20
10 PM Sun 38 38 W 6 9601 9299 3019 Blue 19
11 PM Sun 37 37 SW 7 9504 9203 2923 Blue 18
12 Midnight Mon 38 38 SW 8 9601 9299 3019 Blue 19
1 AM Mon 38 38 SW 9 9601 9299 3019 Blue 19
2 AM Mon 38 38 SW 10 9601 9299 3019 Blue 19
3 AM Mon 37 37 SW 14 9504 9203 2923 Blue 18
4 AM Mon 36 36 SW 16 9408 9107 2827 Blue 17
5 AM Mon 36 36 SW 16 9408 9107 2827 Blue 17
6 AM Mon 37 37 SW 16 9504 9203 2923 Blue 18
7 AM Mon 39 39 SW 18 9705 9395 3115 Blue 20
8 AM Mon 41 41 SW 18 9970 9587 3307 Blue 22
9 AM Mon 43 45 SW 18 10599 10076 3796 Blue 26
10 AM Mon 44 46 SW 22 10777 10215 3935 Blue 27
11 AM Mon 44 47 SW 22 10995 10392 4112 Blue 28
12 Noon Mon 44 47 SW 22 10995 10392 4112 Blue 28
1 PM Mon 43 46 SW 26 10777 10215 3935 Blue 27
2 PM Mon 42 44 SW 26 10421 9951 3671 Blue 25
3 PM Mon 41 42 SW 26 10096 9685 3405 Blue 23
4 PM Mon 40 40 SW 29 9843 9491 3211 Blue 21
5 PM Mon 39 39 SW 29 9705 9395 3115 Blue 20
6 PM Mon 38 38 SW 29 9601 9299 3019 Blue 19
7 PM Mon 37 37 SW 28 9504 9203 2923 Blue 18
8 PM Mon 37 37 SW 28 9504 9203 2923 Blue 18
9 PM Mon 36 36 SW 28 9408 9107 2827 Blue 17
10 PM Mon 36 36 SW 24 9408 9107 2827 Blue 17
11 PM Mon 35 35 SW 24 9248 9011 2731 White 16
12 Midnight Tue 35 35 SW 24 9248 9011 2731 White 16
1 AM Tue 35 35 SW 22 9248 9011 2731 White 16
2 AM Tue 35 35 SW 22 9248 9011 2731 White 16
3 AM Tue 35 35 SW 22 9248 9011 2731 White 16
4 AM Tue 34 34 SW 20 9032 8915 2635 White 15
5 AM Tue 33 33 SW 20 8817 8817 2537 White 14
6 AM Tue 31 31 SW 20 8384 8384 2104 White 12
7 AM Tue 30 30 W 14 8168 8168 1888 White 11
8 AM Tue 30 30 W 14 8168 8168 1888 White 11
9 AM Tue 30 31 W 14 8384 8384 2104 White 12
10 AM Tue 31 32 NW 9 8601 8601 2321 White 13
11 AM Tue 32 34 NW 9 9032 8915 2635 White 15
12 Noon Tue 33 35 NW 9 9248 9011 2731 White 16
1 PM Tue 34 36 NW 9 9408 9107 2827 Blue 17
2 PM Tue 35 36 NW 9 9408 9107 2827 Blue 17
3 PM Tue 36 36 NW 9 9408 9107 2827 Blue 17
4 PM Tue 36 36 NW 12 9408 9107 2827 Blue 17
5 PM Tue 35 35 NW 12 9248 9011 2731 White 16
6 PM Tue 34 34 NW 12 9032 8915 2635 White 15
7 PM Tue 32 32 NW 12 8601 8601 2321 White 13
8 PM Tue 30 30 NW 12 8168 8168 1888 White 11
9 PM Tue 29 29 NW 12 7951 7951 1671 White 11
10 PM Tue 28 28 W 12 7735 7735 1455 White 10
11 PM Tue 28 28 W 12 7735 7735 1455 White 10
12 Midnight Wed 29 29 W 12 7951 7951 1671 White 11
1 AM Wed 30 30 W 12 8168 8168 1888 White 11
2 AM Wed 30 30 W 12 8168 8168 1888 White 11
3 AM Wed 30 30 W 12 8168 8168 1888 White 11
4 AM Wed 30 30 W 10 8168 8168 1888 White 11
5 AM Wed 31 31 W 10 8384 8384 2104 White 12
6 AM Wed 32 32 W 10 8601 8601 2321 White 13
7 AM Wed 34 34 W 10 9032 8915 2635 White 15
8 AM Wed 35 35 W 10 9248 9011 2731 White 16
9 AM Wed 36 37 W 10 9504 9203 2923 Blue 18
10 AM Wed 38 40 W 12 9843 9491 3211 Blue 21
11 AM Wed 40 43 W 12 10243 9823 3543 Blue 24
12 Noon Wed 42 45 W 12 10599 10076 3796 Blue 26
1 PM Wed 44 47 W 16 10995 10392 4112 Blue 28
2 PM Wed 44 46 W 16 10777 10215 3935 Blue 27
3 PM Wed 43 44 W 16 10421 9951 3671 Blue 25
4 PM Wed 42 42 W 21 10096 9685 3405 Blue 23
5 PM Wed 41 41 W 21 9970 9587 3307 Blue 22
6 PM Wed 40 40 W 21 9843 9491 3211 Blue 21
7 PM Wed 39 39 W 21 9705 9395 3115 Blue 20
8 PM Wed 38 38 W 21 9601 9299 3019 Blue 19
9 PM Wed 36 36 W 21 9408 9107 2827 Blue 17
10 PM Wed 35 35 SW 20 9248 9011 2731 White 16
11 PM Wed 34 34 SW 20 9032 8915 2635 White 15
12 Midnight Thu 34 34 SW 20 9032 8915 2635 White 15
1 AM Thu 34 34 W 18 9032 8915 2635 White 15
2 AM Thu 33 33 W 18 8817 8817 2537 White 14
3 AM Thu 33 33 W 18 8817 8817 2537 White 14

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com