Detailed Predictions for: Blackhawk
Launch Altitude (f): 6280
LZ Altitude (f): 3700
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

25 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Mon 42 42 W 3 4885 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 45 45 W 3 4885 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 45 45 W 3 4885 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 48 48 NW 2 4885 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 56 57 N 3 8018 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 59 61 N 3 8490 8126 1846 Blue 4
11 AM Mon 59 63 N 8 8727 8362 2082 Blue 6
12 Noon Mon 63 68 N 9 9791 8950 2670 Blue 11
1 PM Mon 64 69 N 9 10095 9191 2911 Blue 12
2 PM Mon 64 68 N 12 9791 8950 2670 Blue 11
3 PM Mon 65 68 N 12 9791 8950 2670 Blue 11
4 PM Mon 66 68 N 12 9791 8950 2670 Blue 11
5 PM Mon 62 63 N 10 8727 8362 2082 Blue 6
6 PM Mon 60 60 N 10 8372 8009 1729 Blue 3
7 PM Mon 58 58 N 9 8136 6839 559 Blue 1
8 PM Mon 56 56 NW 5 7592 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 55 55 NW 5 6869 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 53 53 NW 5 5273 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 51 51 NW 3 4885 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 52 52 NW 5 4885 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 52 52 NW 5 4885 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 50 50 NW 3 4885 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 51 51 NW 3 4885 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 50 50 NW 3 4885 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 47 47 W 2 4885 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 50 50 W 2 4885 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 50 50 W 3 4885 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 52 52 W 3 4885 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 60 61 W 3 8490 8126 1846 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 63 66 W 3 9223 8715 2435 Blue 9
11 AM Tue 63 67 NW 8 9495 8833 2553 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 66 71 NW 9 10693 9750 3470 Blue 14
1 PM Tue 67 72 NW 9 10989 10051 3771 Blue 15
2 PM Tue 67 72 N 9 10989 10051 3771 Blue 15
3 PM Tue 68 71 N 9 10693 9750 3470 Blue 14
4 PM Tue 69 71 N 8 10693 9750 3470 Blue 14
5 PM Tue 66 67 NE 8 9495 8833 2553 Blue 10
6 PM Tue 64 64 NE 8 8845 8479 2199 Blue 7
7 PM Tue 61 61 NE 7 8490 8126 1846 Blue 4
8 PM Tue 59 59 NE 3 8254 7548 1268 Blue 2
9 PM Tue 58 58 NE 3 8136 6839 559 Blue 1
10 PM Tue 57 57 NE 2 8018 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 55 55 E 2 6869 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 56 56 E 2 7592 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 56 56 E 3 7592 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 54 54 SE 3 6099 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 55 55 SE 3 6869 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 54 54 SE 3 6099 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 51 51 S 1 4885 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 53 53 S 1 5273 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 53 53 S 1 5273 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 56 56 NE 1 7592 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 63 64 NE 1 8845 8479 2199 Blue 7
10 AM Wed 65 68 NE 1 9791 8950 2670 Blue 11
11 AM Wed 65 69 NE 7 10095 9191 2911 Blue 12
12 Noon Wed 68 73 NE 7 11282 10349 4069 Blue 16
1 PM Wed 70 76 NE 7 12150 11228 4948 Blue 19
2 PM Wed 69 74 NE 9 11573 10645 4365 Blue 17
3 PM Wed 70 74 NE 9 11573 10645 4365 Blue 17
4 PM Wed 71 73 NE 9 11282 10349 4069 Blue 16
5 PM Wed 68 69 NE 8 10095 9191 2911 Blue 12
6 PM Wed 66 66 NE 8 9223 8715 2435 Blue 9
7 PM Wed 63 63 NE 8 8727 8362 2082 Blue 6
8 PM Wed 61 61 E 6 8490 8126 1846 Blue 4
9 PM Wed 60 60 E 6 8372 8009 1729 Blue 3
10 PM Wed 59 59 E 6 8254 7548 1268 Blue 2
11 PM Wed 57 57 E 2 8018 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 58 58 E 2 8136 6839 559 Blue 1
1 AM Thu 58 58 E 2 8136 6839 559 Blue 1
2 AM Thu 56 56 E 3 7592 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 57 57 E 3 8018 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 56 56 E 3 7592 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 53 53 NE 2 5273 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 56 56 NE 2 7592 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 55 55 NE 2 6869 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 58 58 E 3 8136 6839 559 Blue 1
9 AM Thu 66 67 E 3 9495 8833 2553 Blue 10
10 AM Thu 68 71 E 3 10693 9750 3470 Blue 14
11 AM Thu 68 72 NE 8 10989 10051 3771 Blue 15
12 Noon Thu 71 76 NE 8 12150 11228 4948 Blue 19
1 PM Thu 72 77 NE 8 12435 11517 5237 Blue 20
2 PM Thu 72 77 NE 10 12435 11517 5237 Blue 20
3 PM Thu 74 77 NE 10 12435 11517 5237 Blue 20
4 PM Thu 74 76 NE 10 12150 11228 4948 Blue 19
5 PM Thu 70 71 NE 9 10693 9750 3470 Blue 14
6 PM Thu 68 68 NE 9 9791 8950 2670 Blue 11
7 PM Thu 66 66 NE 9 9223 8715 2435 Blue 9
8 PM Thu 64 64 NE 7 8845 8479 2199 Blue 7
9 PM Thu 63 63 NE 7 8727 8362 2082 Blue 6
10 PM Thu 61 61 NE 7 8490 8126 1846 Blue 4
11 PM Thu 59 59 E 5 8254 7548 1268 Blue 2
12 Midnight Fri 60 60 E 5 8372 8009 1729 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 60 60 E 5 8372 8009 1729 Blue 3
2 AM Fri 58 58 E 3 8136 6839 559 Blue 1
3 AM Fri 59 59 E 3 8254 7548 1268 Blue 2
4 AM Fri 58 58 E 3 8136 6839 559 Blue 1
5 AM Fri 55 55 E 3 6869 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 57 57 E 3 8018 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 57 57 E 3 8018 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 60 60 E 3 8372 8009 1729 Blue 3
9 AM Fri 67 68 E 3 9791 8950 2670 Blue 11
10 AM Fri 69 72 E 3 10989 10051 3771 Blue 15
11 AM Fri 69 73 NE 7 11282 10349 4069 Blue 16
12 Noon Fri 72 77 NE 7 12435 11517 5237 Blue 20
1 PM Fri 74 79 NE 7 12999 12089 5809 Blue 22
2 PM Fri 73 77 NE 10 12435 11517 5237 Blue 20
3 PM Fri 75 78 NE 10 12718 11804 5524 Blue 21
4 PM Fri 75 77 NE 10 12435 11517 5237 Blue 20
5 PM Fri 71 72 NE 9 10989 10051 3771 Blue 15
6 PM Fri 69 69 NE 9 10095 9191 2911 Blue 12
7 PM Fri 67 67 NE 9 9495 8833 2553 Blue 10
8 PM Fri 65 65 NE 6 8963 8597 2317 Blue 8
9 PM Fri 64 64 NE 6 8845 8479 2199 Blue 7
10 PM Fri 62 62 NE 6 8609 8244 1964 Blue 5
11 PM Fri 60 60 NE 3 8372 8009 1729 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sat 61 61 NE 3 8490 8126 1846 Blue 4
1 AM Sat 61 61 NE 3 8490 8126 1846 Blue 4
2 AM Sat 59 59 NE 3 8254 7548 1268 Blue 2
3 AM Sat 60 60 NE 3 8372 8009 1729 Blue 3
4 AM Sat 59 59 NE 3 8254 7548 1268 Blue 2
5 AM Sat 56 56 N 2 7592 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 58 58 N 2 8136 6839 559 Blue 1
7 AM Sat 58 58 N 2 8136 6839 559 Blue 1
8 AM Sat 61 61 N 2 8490 8126 1846 Blue 4
9 AM Sat 69 70 N 2 10395 9461 3181 Blue 13
10 AM Sat 71 74 N 2 11573 10645 4365 Blue 17
11 AM Sat 71 75 NE 7 11862 10938 4658 Blue 18
12 Noon Sat 74 79 NE 7 12999 12089 5809 Blue 22
1 PM Sat 76 81 NE 7 14820 12652 6372 Blue 24
2 PM Sat 75 80 N 12 13856 12371 6091 Blue 23
3 PM Sat 77 80 N 12 13856 12371 6091 Blue 23
4 PM Sat 77 79 N 12 12999 12089 5809 Blue 22
5 PM Sat 73 74 N 12 11573 10645 4365 Blue 17
6 PM Sat 71 71 N 12 10693 9750 3470 Blue 14
7 PM Sat 68 68 N 12 9791 8950 2670 Blue 11
8 PM Sat 66 66 N 5 9223 8715 2435 Blue 9
9 PM Sat 64 64 N 5 8845 8479 2199 Blue 7
10 PM Sat 62 62 N 5 8609 8244 1964 Blue 5
11 PM Sat 61 61 NW 6 8490 8126 1846 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sun 61 61 NW 6 8490 8126 1846 Blue 4
1 AM Sun 61 61 NW 6 8490 8126 1846 Blue 4
2 AM Sun 60 60 NW 6 8372 8009 1729 Blue 3
3 AM Sun 60 60 NW 6 8372 8009 1729 Blue 3
4 AM Sun 59 59 NW 6 8254 7548 1268 Blue 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com