Detailed Predictions for: Blackhawk
Launch Altitude (f): 6280
LZ Altitude (f): 3700
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

19 JUN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 55 55 W 6 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 57 57 W 5 6034 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 60 60 W 5 6547 6280 0 Blue 3
8 AM Tue 63 64 NW 2 7376 6711 431 Blue 7
9 AM Tue 65 68 NW 3 7659 7442 1162 Blue 11
10 AM Tue 68 73 N 5 8073 7795 1515 Blue 16
11 AM Tue 70 77 NE 6 8787 8212 1932 Blue 20
12 Noon Tue 73 81 NE 7 9805 8959 2679 Blue 24
1 PM Tue 76 84 NE 7 11172 9759 3479 Blue 27
2 PM Tue 80 88 NE 7 12507 11542 5262 Blue 31
3 PM Tue 82 88 NE 7 12507 11542 5262 Blue 31
4 PM Tue 84 88 NE 7 12507 11542 5262 Blue 31
5 PM Tue 83 85 N 6 11623 10101 3821 Blue 28
6 PM Tue 83 84 N 6 11172 9759 3479 Blue 27
7 PM Tue 81 81 N 6 9805 8959 2679 Blue 24
8 PM Tue 79 79 NW 6 9173 8575 2295 Blue 22
9 PM Tue 75 75 NW 6 8400 7937 1657 Blue 18
10 PM Tue 72 72 W 8 7942 7725 1445 Blue 15
11 PM Tue 69 69 W 10 7729 7513 1233 Blue 12
12 Midnight Wed 67 67 W 9 7588 7372 1092 Blue 10
1 AM Wed 65 65 W 9 7446 6999 719 Blue 8
2 AM Wed 64 64 W 7 7376 6711 431 Blue 7
3 AM Wed 63 63 W 7 7305 6542 262 Blue 6
4 AM Wed 62 62 W 6 7018 6372 92 Blue 5
5 AM Wed 63 63 SW 3 7305 6542 262 Blue 6
6 AM Wed 65 65 S 3 7446 6999 719 Blue 8
7 AM Wed 69 69 S 3 7729 7513 1233 Blue 12
8 AM Wed 73 75 E 3 8400 7937 1657 Blue 18
9 AM Wed 75 78 NE 3 8980 8383 2103 Blue 21
10 AM Wed 77 82 NE 3 10150 9151 2871 Blue 25
11 AM Wed 79 86 E 8 12018 10536 4256 Blue 29
12 Noon Wed 82 90 E 9 12992 12211 5931 Blue 33
1 PM Wed 85 94 E 9 14819 13174 6894 Blue 37
2 PM Wed 88 96 E 10 16379 13649 7369 Blue 39
3 PM Wed 89 95 NE 9 15710 13412 7132 Blue 38
4 PM Wed 89 93 NE 9 13818 12935 6655 Blue 36
5 PM Wed 90 92 NE 8 13473 12695 6415 Blue 35
6 PM Wed 88 89 NE 8 12750 11959 5679 Blue 32
7 PM Wed 86 86 N 6 12018 10536 4256 Blue 29
8 PM Wed 83 83 NW 8 10624 9413 3133 Blue 26
9 PM Wed 80 80 W 7 9456 8768 2488 Blue 23
10 PM Wed 76 76 W 7 8594 8062 1782 Blue 19
11 PM Wed 74 74 W 9 8224 7866 1586 Blue 17
12 Midnight Thu 72 72 W 10 7942 7725 1445 Blue 15
1 AM Thu 70 70 W 9 7800 7583 1303 Blue 13
2 AM Thu 69 69 W 8 7729 7513 1233 Blue 12
3 AM Thu 67 67 W 7 7588 7372 1092 Blue 10
4 AM Thu 66 66 SW 6 7517 7301 1021 Blue 9
5 AM Thu 67 67 SW 5 7588 7372 1092 Blue 10
6 AM Thu 70 70 SW 6 7800 7583 1303 Blue 13
7 AM Thu 74 74 SW 6 8224 7866 1586 Blue 17
8 AM Thu 78 79 W 2 9173 8575 2295 Blue 22
9 AM Thu 81 84 NW 2 11172 9759 3479 Blue 27
10 AM Thu 82 87 N 3 12263 11077 4797 Blue 30
11 AM Thu 83 90 N 6 12992 12211 5931 Blue 33
12 Noon Thu 86 94 N 7 14819 13174 6894 Blue 37
1 PM Thu 88 97 N 7 17006 14540 8260 Blue 40
2 PM Thu 91 99 N 9 18081 16153 9873 White 42
3 PM Thu 92 98 N 9 17604 15432 9152 Blue 41
4 PM Thu 92 96 N 9 16379 13649 7369 Blue 39
5 PM Thu 92 94 W 9 14819 13174 6894 Blue 37
6 PM Thu 88 89 NW 10 12750 11959 5679 Blue 32
7 PM Thu 84 84 W 10 11172 9759 3479 Blue 27
8 PM Thu 80 80 W 15 9456 8768 2488 Blue 23
9 PM Thu 78 78 W 16 8980 8383 2103 Blue 21
10 PM Thu 76 76 W 15 8594 8062 1782 Blue 19
11 PM Thu 75 75 W 13 8400 7937 1657 Blue 18
12 Midnight Fri 73 73 W 13 8073 7795 1515 Blue 16
1 AM Fri 71 71 W 13 7871 7654 1374 Blue 14
2 AM Fri 68 68 W 14 7659 7442 1162 Blue 11
3 AM Fri 67 67 W 16 7588 7372 1092 Blue 10
4 AM Fri 66 66 W 16 7517 7301 1021 Blue 9
5 AM Fri 66 66 W 13 7517 7301 1021 Blue 9
6 AM Fri 67 67 W 13 7588 7372 1092 Blue 10
7 AM Fri 68 68 W 13 7659 7442 1162 Blue 11
8 AM Fri 70 71 NW 12 7871 7654 1374 Blue 14
9 AM Fri 73 76 NW 12 8594 8062 1782 Blue 19
10 AM Fri 75 80 NW 12 9456 8768 2488 Blue 23
11 AM Fri 78 85 NW 12 11623 10101 3821 Blue 28
12 Noon Fri 82 90 NW 12 12992 12211 5931 Blue 33
1 PM Fri 86 94 NW 12 14819 13174 6894 Blue 37
2 PM Fri 89 96 NW 13 16379 13649 7369 Blue 39
3 PM Fri 91 97 NW 13 17006 14540 8260 Blue 40
4 PM Fri 92 96 NW 13 16379 13649 7369 Blue 39
5 PM Fri 91 93 NW 14 13818 12935 6655 Blue 36
6 PM Fri 89 90 NW 14 12992 12211 5931 Blue 33
7 PM Fri 85 85 NW 14 11623 10101 3821 Blue 28
8 PM Fri 82 82 W 15 10150 9151 2871 Blue 25
9 PM Fri 80 80 W 15 9456 8768 2488 Blue 23
10 PM Fri 79 79 W 15 9173 8575 2295 Blue 22
11 PM Fri 78 78 W 14 8980 8383 2103 Blue 21
12 Midnight Sat 77 77 W 14 8787 8212 1932 Blue 20
1 AM Sat 75 75 W 14 8400 7937 1657 Blue 18
2 AM Sat 73 73 W 13 8073 7795 1515 Blue 16
3 AM Sat 70 70 W 13 7800 7583 1303 Blue 13
4 AM Sat 67 67 W 13 7588 7372 1092 Blue 10
5 AM Sat 66 66 W 10 7517 7301 1021 Blue 9
6 AM Sat 68 68 W 10 7659 7442 1162 Blue 11
7 AM Sat 71 71 W 10 7871 7654 1374 Blue 14
8 AM Sat 74 75 NW 9 8400 7937 1657 Blue 18
9 AM Sat 77 80 NW 9 9456 8768 2488 Blue 23
10 AM Sat 79 84 NW 9 11172 9759 3479 Blue 27
11 AM Sat 82 89 N 8 12750 11959 5679 Blue 32
12 Noon Sat 85 93 N 8 13818 12935 6655 Blue 36
1 PM Sat 89 98 N 8 17604 15432 9152 Blue 41
2 PM Sat 92 100 W 12 18289 16777 10497 White 43
3 PM Sat 92 98 W 12 17604 15432 9152 Blue 41
4 PM Sat 91 95 W 12 15710 13412 7132 Blue 38
5 PM Sat 89 91 SW 15 13233 12454 6174 Blue 34
6 PM Sat 87 88 SW 15 12507 11542 5262 Blue 31
7 PM Sat 85 85 SW 15 11623 10101 3821 Blue 28
8 PM Sat 83 83 SW 15 10624 9413 3133 Blue 26
9 PM Sat 81 81 SW 15 9805 8959 2679 Blue 24
10 PM Sat 79 79 SW 15 9173 8575 2295 Blue 22
11 PM Sat 78 78 W 14 8980 8383 2103 Blue 21
12 Midnight Sun 76 76 W 14 8594 8062 1782 Blue 19
1 AM Sun 74 74 W 14 8224 7866 1586 Blue 17
2 AM Sun 71 71 W 9 7871 7654 1374 Blue 14
3 AM Sun 69 69 W 9 7729 7513 1233 Blue 12
4 AM Sun 66 66 W 9 7517 7301 1021 Blue 9
5 AM Sun 65 65 W 5 7446 6999 719 Blue 8
6 AM Sun 65 65 W 5 7446 6999 719 Blue 8
7 AM Sun 66 66 W 5 7517 7301 1021 Blue 9
8 AM Sun 68 69 NW 6 7729 7513 1233 Blue 12
9 AM Sun 69 72 NW 6 7942 7725 1445 Blue 15
10 AM Sun 72 77 NW 6 8787 8212 1932 Blue 20
11 AM Sun 74 81 NE 7 9805 8959 2679 Blue 24
12 Noon Sun 78 86 NE 7 12018 10536 4256 Blue 29
1 PM Sun 81 90 NE 7 12992 12211 5931 Blue 33
2 PM Sun 84 92 NE 8 13473 12695 6415 Blue 35
3 PM Sun 86 92 NE 8 13473 12695 6415 Blue 35
4 PM Sun 87 91 NE 8 13233 12454 6174 Blue 34
5 PM Sun 87 89 NE 7 12750 11959 5679 Blue 32
6 PM Sun 86 87 NE 7 12263 11077 4797 Blue 30
7 PM Sun 84 84 NE 7 11172 9759 3479 Blue 27
8 PM Sun 81 81 N 7 9805 8959 2679 Blue 24
9 PM Sun 78 78 N 7 8980 8383 2103 Blue 21
10 PM Sun 76 76 N 7 8594 8062 1782 Blue 19
11 PM Sun 73 73 W 7 8073 7795 1515 Blue 16
12 Midnight Mon 71 71 W 7 7871 7654 1374 Blue 14
1 AM Mon 69 69 W 7 7729 7513 1233 Blue 12
2 AM Mon 67 67 W 6 7588 7372 1092 Blue 10
3 AM Mon 65 65 W 6 7446 6999 719 Blue 8
4 AM Mon 64 64 W 6 7376 6711 431 Blue 7

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com