Detailed Predictions for: Blackhawk
Launch Altitude (f): 6280
LZ Altitude (f): 3700
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

21 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Tue 49 49 W 2 5180 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 52 52 SW 1 5180 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 51 51 S 0 5180 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 52 52 SE 1 5180 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 57 57 E 1 6301 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 62 63 E 1 8570 7773 1493 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 65 67 NE 3 9472 8772 2492 Blue 8
11 AM Tue 66 68 NE 3 9835 8994 2714 Blue 9
12 Noon Tue 67 69 NE 5 10194 9215 2935 Blue 10
1 PM Tue 68 70 E 6 10454 9435 3155 Blue 11
2 PM Tue 67 68 E 6 9835 8994 2714 Blue 9
3 PM Tue 66 66 E 6 9241 8549 2269 Blue 7
4 PM Tue 63 63 E 6 8570 7773 1493 Blue 4
5 PM Tue 62 62 SE 5 8345 7279 999 Blue 3
6 PM Tue 61 61 SE 6 8119 6790 510 Blue 2
7 PM Tue 60 60 SE 6 7808 6290 10 Blue 1
8 PM Tue 59 59 SE 6 7305 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 58 58 SE 7 6809 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 58 58 SE 7 6809 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 57 57 SE 7 6301 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 57 57 SE 7 6301 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 57 57 SE 7 6301 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 58 58 SE 7 6809 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 57 57 SE 7 6301 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 55 55 SE 7 5242 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 57 57 SE 7 6301 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 57 57 SE 7 6301 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 58 58 SE 8 6809 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 62 62 SE 8 8345 7279 999 Blue 3
9 AM Wed 67 68 E 8 9835 8994 2714 Blue 9
10 AM Wed 69 71 E 8 10669 9786 3506 Blue 12
11 AM Wed 71 74 E 9 12290 10634 4354 Blue 15
12 Noon Wed 71 74 E 9 12290 10634 4354 Blue 15
1 PM Wed 72 74 E 10 12290 10634 4354 Blue 15
2 PM Wed 71 72 E 10 11092 10141 3861 Blue 13
3 PM Wed 70 70 E 10 10454 9435 3155 Blue 11
4 PM Wed 65 65 E 9 9018 8325 2045 Blue 6
5 PM Wed 65 65 E 8 9018 8325 2045 Blue 6
6 PM Wed 64 64 SE 9 8794 8101 1821 Blue 5
7 PM Wed 62 62 SE 10 8345 7279 999 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 60 60 SE 10 7808 6290 10 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 60 60 SE 10 7808 6290 10 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 59 59 SE 10 7305 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 58 58 SE 9 6809 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 58 58 SE 9 6809 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 58 58 SE 8 6809 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 59 59 SE 7 7305 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 58 58 SE 6 6809 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 56 56 SE 5 5779 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 58 58 SE 5 6809 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 58 58 SE 3 6809 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 58 58 SE 3 6809 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 64 64 SE 2 8794 8101 1821 Blue 5
9 AM Thu 68 69 E 3 10194 9215 2935 Blue 10
10 AM Thu 70 72 E 3 11092 10141 3861 Blue 13
11 AM Thu 72 75 E 5 12968 11014 4734 Blue 16
12 Noon Thu 72 75 E 6 12968 11014 4734 Blue 16
1 PM Thu 73 75 E 7 12968 11014 4734 Blue 16
2 PM Thu 72 73 E 7 11571 10421 4141 Blue 14
3 PM Thu 71 71 E 7 10669 9786 3506 Blue 12
4 PM Thu 67 67 E 6 9472 8772 2492 Blue 8
5 PM Thu 66 66 E 6 9241 8549 2269 Blue 7
6 PM Thu 65 65 E 6 9018 8325 2045 Blue 6
7 PM Thu 63 63 W 6 8570 7773 1493 Blue 4
8 PM Thu 62 62 W 6 8345 7279 999 Blue 3
9 PM Thu 61 61 W 6 8119 6790 510 Blue 2
10 PM Thu 61 61 W 8 8119 6790 510 Blue 2
11 PM Thu 60 60 W 8 7808 6290 10 Blue 1
12 Midnight Fri 60 60 W 8 7808 6290 10 Blue 1
1 AM Fri 60 60 W 10 7808 6290 10 Blue 1
2 AM Fri 61 61 W 10 8119 6790 510 Blue 2
3 AM Fri 60 60 W 10 7808 6290 10 Blue 1
4 AM Fri 58 58 W 10 6809 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 60 60 W 10 7808 6290 10 Blue 1
6 AM Fri 60 60 W 10 7808 6290 10 Blue 1
7 AM Fri 60 60 W 10 7808 6290 10 Blue 1
8 AM Fri 64 64 W 10 8794 8101 1821 Blue 5
9 AM Fri 68 69 W 10 10194 9215 2935 Blue 10
10 AM Fri 70 72 NW 8 11092 10141 3861 Blue 13
11 AM Fri 71 74 NW 8 12290 10634 4354 Blue 15
12 Noon Fri 72 75 NW 8 12968 11014 4734 Blue 16
1 PM Fri 72 74 NW 10 12290 10634 4354 Blue 15
2 PM Fri 71 72 NW 10 11092 10141 3861 Blue 13
3 PM Fri 70 70 NW 10 10454 9435 3155 Blue 11
4 PM Fri 65 65 NW 6 9018 8325 2045 Blue 6
5 PM Fri 64 64 NW 6 8794 8101 1821 Blue 5
6 PM Fri 63 63 NW 6 8570 7773 1493 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 61 61 W 6 8119 6790 510 Blue 2
8 PM Fri 60 60 W 6 7808 6290 10 Blue 1
9 PM Fri 59 59 W 6 7305 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 58 58 W 6 6809 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 57 57 W 6 6301 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 57 57 W 6 6301 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 57 57 W 6 6301 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 58 58 W 6 6809 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 57 57 W 6 6301 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 55 55 W 7 5242 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 57 57 W 7 6301 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 57 57 W 7 6301 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 57 57 SW 8 6301 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 62 62 SW 8 8345 7279 999 Blue 3
9 AM Sat 65 66 SW 8 9241 8549 2269 Blue 7
10 AM Sat 68 70 W 2 10454 9435 3155 Blue 11
11 AM Sat 69 71 W 2 10669 9786 3506 Blue 12
12 Noon Sat 70 72 W 2 11092 10141 3861 Blue 13
1 PM Sat 70 72 E 1 11092 10141 3861 Blue 13
2 PM Sat 69 70 E 1 10454 9435 3155 Blue 11
3 PM Sat 68 68 E 1 9835 8994 2714 Blue 9
4 PM Sat 63 63 S 8 8570 7773 1493 Blue 4
5 PM Sat 62 62 S 8 8345 7279 999 Blue 3
6 PM Sat 60 60 S 8 7808 6290 10 Blue 1
7 PM Sat 58 58 SW 10 6809 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 57 57 SW 10 6301 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 56 56 SW 10 5779 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 56 56 W 8 5779 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 54 54 W 8 5180 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 54 54 W 8 5180 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 54 54 SW 9 5180 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 56 56 SW 9 5779 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 54 54 SW 9 5180 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 52 52 W 8 5180 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 54 54 W 8 5180 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 54 54 W 8 5180 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 54 54 SW 9 5180 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 59 59 SW 9 7305 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 63 64 SW 9 8794 8101 1821 Blue 5
10 AM Sun 65 66 W 3 9241 8549 2269 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 67 68 W 3 9835 8994 2714 Blue 9
12 Noon Sun 68 69 W 3 10194 9215 2935 Blue 10
1 PM Sun 68 69 SW 2 10194 9215 2935 Blue 10
2 PM Sun 67 68 SW 2 9835 8994 2714 Blue 9
3 PM Sun 66 66 SW 2 9241 8549 2269 Blue 7
4 PM Sun 61 61 SW 13 8119 6790 510 Blue 2
5 PM Sun 60 60 SW 13 7808 6290 10 Blue 1
6 PM Sun 59 59 SW 13 7305 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 57 57 SW 14 6301 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 56 56 SW 14 5779 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 55 55 SW 14 5242 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 54 54 SW 15 5180 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 53 53 SW 15 5180 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 53 53 SW 15 5180 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 53 53 SW 18 5180 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 54 54 SW 18 5180 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 53 53 SW 18 5180 6280 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com