Detailed Predictions for: Blackhawk
Launch Altitude (f): 6280
LZ Altitude (f): 3700
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

19 AUG 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 69 69 W 8 5007 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 70 70 W 8 5007 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 71 71 W 7 5007 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 75 76 W 5 8479 6280 0 Blue 2
9 AM Sun 81 83 W 5 10970 9781 3501 Blue 9
10 AM Sun 84 88 NW 5 13114 11574 5294 Blue 14
11 AM Sun 86 90 N 7 14393 12270 5990 Blue 16
12 Noon Sun 88 93 N 6 15977 14221 7941 Blue 19
1 PM Sun 90 96 N 6 16952 15826 9546 Blue 22
2 PM Sun 90 95 N 6 16717 15375 9095 Blue 21
3 PM Sun 90 94 N 5 16422 14813 8533 Blue 20
4 PM Sun 89 92 N 5 15523 13603 7323 Blue 18
5 PM Sun 87 89 N 6 13769 11899 5619 Blue 15
6 PM Sun 86 86 W 6 11965 10914 4634 Blue 12
7 PM Sun 83 83 SW 6 10970 9781 3501 Blue 9
8 PM Sun 80 80 SW 12 9825 8787 2507 Blue 6
9 PM Sun 78 78 SW 9 9159 7885 1605 Blue 4
10 PM Sun 76 76 SW 10 8479 6280 0 Blue 2
11 PM Sun 74 74 SW 8 7267 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 73 73 SW 8 6114 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 72 72 SW 10 5007 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 71 71 SW 9 5007 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 71 71 SW 10 5007 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 70 70 SW 9 5007 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 69 69 SW 9 5007 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 70 70 SW 8 5007 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 71 71 SW 8 5007 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 74 75 S 2 7932 6280 0 Blue 1
9 AM Mon 80 82 S 1 10632 9453 3173 Blue 8
10 AM Mon 82 86 E 1 11965 10914 4634 Blue 12
11 AM Mon 85 90 N 3 14393 12270 5990 Blue 16
12 Noon Mon 86 92 N 3 15523 13603 7323 Blue 18
1 PM Mon 88 94 NW 3 16422 14813 8533 Blue 20
2 PM Mon 88 93 SW 6 15977 14221 7941 Blue 19
3 PM Mon 88 92 SW 10 15523 13603 7323 Blue 18
4 PM Mon 87 90 SW 12 14393 12270 5990 Blue 16
5 PM Mon 85 86 SW 22 11965 10914 4634 Blue 12
6 PM Mon 84 84 SW 23 11305 10107 3827 Blue 10
7 PM Mon 81 81 SW 23 10153 9122 2842 Blue 7
8 PM Mon 79 79 S 23 9493 8449 2169 Blue 5
9 PM Mon 76 76 S 22 8479 6280 0 Blue 2
10 PM Mon 75 75 SW 21 7932 6280 0 Blue 1
11 PM Mon 73 73 SW 20 6114 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 72 72 S 20 5007 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 71 71 S 18 5007 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 70 70 S 13 5007 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 70 70 S 8 5007 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 69 69 S 9 5007 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 68 68 S 7 5007 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 69 69 S 7 5007 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 70 70 S 7 5007 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 73 73 W 0 6114 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 78 80 NE 3 9825 8787 2507 Blue 6
10 AM Tue 81 84 NE 5 11305 10107 3827 Blue 10
11 AM Tue 83 87 N 7 12422 11245 4965 Blue 13
12 Noon Tue 85 90 N 7 14393 12270 5990 Blue 16
1 PM Tue 86 91 NW 7 14990 12954 6674 Blue 17
2 PM Tue 86 91 NW 5 14990 12954 6674 Blue 17
3 PM Tue 86 90 SW 5 14393 12270 5990 Blue 16
4 PM Tue 85 88 S 7 13114 11574 5294 Blue 14
5 PM Tue 84 85 SW 12 11636 10578 4298 Blue 11
6 PM Tue 82 82 SW 8 10632 9453 3173 Blue 8
7 PM Tue 79 79 SW 8 9493 8449 2169 Blue 5
8 PM Tue 77 77 S 14 8821 7232 952 Blue 3
9 PM Tue 75 75 S 14 7932 6280 0 Blue 1
10 PM Tue 73 73 S 14 6114 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 72 72 SW 15 5007 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 71 71 SW 15 5007 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 70 70 SW 15 5007 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 69 69 SW 12 5007 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 68 68 SW 12 5007 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 68 68 SW 12 5007 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 67 67 SW 3 5007 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 68 68 SW 3 5007 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 69 69 SW 3 5007 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 72 72 W 2 5007 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 78 80 W 2 9825 8787 2507 Blue 6
10 AM Wed 80 83 W 2 10970 9781 3501 Blue 9
11 AM Wed 83 86 NE 6 11965 10914 4634 Blue 12
12 Noon Wed 84 88 NE 6 13114 11574 5294 Blue 14
1 PM Wed 86 90 NE 6 14393 12270 5990 Blue 16
2 PM Wed 86 90 N 10 14393 12270 5990 Blue 16
3 PM Wed 86 89 N 10 13769 11899 5619 Blue 15
4 PM Wed 86 88 N 10 13114 11574 5294 Blue 14
5 PM Wed 84 85 SW 17 11636 10578 4298 Blue 11
6 PM Wed 82 82 SW 17 10632 9453 3173 Blue 8
7 PM Wed 79 79 SW 17 9493 8449 2169 Blue 5
8 PM Wed 77 77 SW 20 8821 7232 952 Blue 3
9 PM Wed 75 75 SW 20 7932 6280 0 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 73 73 SW 20 6114 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 72 72 SW 17 5007 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 71 71 SW 17 5007 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 70 70 SW 17 5007 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 69 69 SW 15 5007 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 68 68 SW 15 5007 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 68 68 SW 15 5007 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 67 67 SW 13 5007 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 68 68 SW 13 5007 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 68 68 SW 13 5007 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 72 72 W 3 5007 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 77 79 W 3 9493 8449 2169 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 80 83 W 3 10970 9781 3501 Blue 9
11 AM Thu 82 85 N 8 11636 10578 4298 Blue 11
12 Noon Thu 84 88 N 8 13114 11574 5294 Blue 14
1 PM Thu 85 89 N 8 13769 11899 5619 Blue 15
2 PM Thu 84 88 N 10 13114 11574 5294 Blue 14
3 PM Thu 85 88 N 10 13114 11574 5294 Blue 14
4 PM Thu 85 87 N 10 12422 11245 4965 Blue 13
5 PM Thu 83 84 SW 16 11305 10107 3827 Blue 10
6 PM Thu 82 82 SW 16 10632 9453 3173 Blue 8
7 PM Thu 79 79 SW 16 9493 8449 2169 Blue 5
8 PM Thu 77 77 SW 15 8821 7232 952 Blue 3
9 PM Thu 74 74 SW 15 7267 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 73 73 SW 15 6114 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 72 72 SW 16 5007 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 71 71 SW 16 5007 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 70 70 SW 16 5007 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 69 69 W 16 5007 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 68 68 W 16 5007 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 68 68 W 16 5007 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 67 67 W 12 5007 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 68 68 W 12 5007 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 69 69 W 12 5007 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 72 72 W 3 5007 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 78 79 W 3 9493 8449 2169 Blue 5
10 AM Fri 80 83 W 3 10970 9781 3501 Blue 9
11 AM Fri 83 87 N 8 12422 11245 4965 Blue 13
12 Noon Fri 84 89 N 8 13769 11899 5619 Blue 15
1 PM Fri 86 92 N 8 15523 13603 7323 Blue 18
2 PM Fri 86 91 N 8 14990 12954 6674 Blue 17
3 PM Fri 86 90 N 8 14393 12270 5990 Blue 16
4 PM Fri 86 89 N 8 13769 11899 5619 Blue 15
5 PM Fri 84 85 W 17 11636 10578 4298 Blue 11
6 PM Fri 82 82 W 17 10632 9453 3173 Blue 8
7 PM Fri 79 79 W 17 9493 8449 2169 Blue 5
8 PM Fri 77 77 W 16 8821 7232 952 Blue 3
9 PM Fri 75 75 W 16 7932 6280 0 Blue 1
10 PM Fri 73 73 W 16 6114 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 72 72 SW 15 5007 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 71 71 SW 15 5007 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 70 70 SW 15 5007 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 69 69 W 15 5007 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 68 68 W 15 5007 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 68 68 W 15 5007 6280 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com