Detailed Predictions for: Blackhawk
Launch Altitude (f): 6280
LZ Altitude (f): 3700
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

16 FEB 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sat 27 27 W 30 5424 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 29 29 W 29 6049 6280 0 White 0
6 AM Sat 29 29 W 31 6049 6280 0 White 0
7 AM Sat 28 28 W 28 5761 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 31 31 W 28 6493 6280 0 White 2
9 AM Sat 34 35 W 28 7373 7373 1093 White 6
10 AM Sat 35 37 W 28 7806 7806 1526 White 8
11 AM Sat 36 39 W 28 8239 8239 1959 White 10
12 Noon Sat 36 39 W 26 8239 8239 1959 White 10
1 PM Sat 36 39 W 26 8239 8239 1959 White 10
2 PM Sat 36 38 W 26 8023 8023 1743 White 9
3 PM Sat 35 36 W 28 7590 7590 1310 White 7
4 PM Sat 33 33 W 28 6935 6935 655 White 4
5 PM Sat 32 32 W 25 6715 6715 435 White 3
6 PM Sat 31 31 W 30 6493 6280 0 White 2
7 PM Sat 30 30 W 30 6272 6280 0 White 1
8 PM Sat 28 28 W 28 5761 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 28 28 W 26 5761 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 28 28 W 24 5761 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 28 28 W 25 5761 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 27 27 W 28 5424 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 26 26 W 26 5083 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 27 27 W 28 5424 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 27 27 W 30 5424 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 25 25 W 30 4888 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 27 27 W 31 5424 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 26 26 W 29 5083 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 26 26 W 30 5083 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 28 28 W 29 5761 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 31 32 W 25 6715 6715 435 White 3
10 AM Sun 32 33 SW 26 6935 6935 655 White 4
11 AM Sun 33 34 SW 20 7155 7155 875 White 5
12 Noon Sun 33 34 SW 26 7155 7155 875 White 5
1 PM Sun 33 34 W 25 7155 7155 875 White 5
2 PM Sun 33 33 W 25 6935 6935 655 White 4
3 PM Sun 32 32 W 25 6715 6715 435 White 3
4 PM Sun 30 30 W 30 6272 6280 0 White 1
5 PM Sun 29 29 W 26 6049 6280 0 White 0
6 PM Sun 28 28 W 26 5761 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 26 26 W 26 5083 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 25 25 W 25 4888 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 25 25 W 26 4888 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 24 24 W 25 4888 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 24 24 W 23 4888 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 23 23 W 21 4888 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 22 22 W 20 4888 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 23 23 W 20 4888 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 23 23 W 20 4888 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 21 21 W 16 4888 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 23 23 W 16 4888 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 23 23 W 16 4888 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 22 22 NW 10 4888 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 25 25 NW 10 4888 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 28 28 NW 10 5761 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 30 32 NW 10 6715 6715 435 White 3
11 AM Mon 31 34 NW 10 7155 7155 875 White 5
12 Noon Mon 31 34 NW 10 7155 7155 875 White 5
1 PM Mon 31 34 NW 12 7155 7155 875 White 5
2 PM Mon 31 33 NW 12 6935 6935 655 White 4
3 PM Mon 30 31 NW 12 6493 6280 0 White 2
4 PM Mon 28 28 NW 10 5761 6280 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 28 28 NW 10 5761 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 26 26 NW 10 5083 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 25 25 NW 12 4888 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 24 24 NW 12 4888 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 24 24 NW 12 4888 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 24 24 NW 10 4888 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 23 23 NW 10 4888 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 23 23 NW 10 4888 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 22 22 NW 9 4888 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 22 22 NW 9 4888 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 23 23 NW 9 4888 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 21 21 NW 8 4888 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 23 23 NW 8 4888 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 23 23 NW 8 4888 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 22 22 NW 9 4888 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 26 26 NW 9 5083 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 29 30 NW 9 6272 6280 0 White 1
10 AM Tue 30 33 NW 8 6935 6935 655 White 4
11 AM Tue 32 36 NW 8 7590 7590 1310 White 7
12 Noon Tue 32 36 NW 8 7590 7590 1310 White 7
1 PM Tue 32 35 NW 6 7373 7373 1093 White 6
2 PM Tue 32 34 NW 6 7155 7155 875 White 5
3 PM Tue 31 32 NW 6 6715 6715 435 White 3
4 PM Tue 30 30 NW 5 6272 6280 0 White 1
5 PM Tue 29 29 NW 5 6049 6280 0 White 0
6 PM Tue 28 28 NW 5 5761 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 27 27 N 3 5424 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 26 26 N 3 5083 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 26 26 N 3 5083 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 25 25 N 3 4888 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 25 25 N 3 4888 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 24 24 N 3 4888 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 24 24 NW 6 4888 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 24 24 NW 6 4888 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 24 24 NW 6 4888 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 23 23 NW 3 4888 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 26 26 NW 3 5083 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 26 26 NW 3 5083 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 24 24 W 5 4888 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 28 28 W 5 5761 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 33 34 W 5 7155 7155 875 White 5
10 AM Wed 34 36 NW 6 7590 7590 1310 White 7
11 AM Wed 36 39 NW 6 8239 8239 1959 White 10
12 Noon Wed 36 39 NW 6 8239 8239 1959 White 10
1 PM Wed 36 39 NW 8 8239 8239 1959 White 10
2 PM Wed 36 38 NW 8 8023 8023 1743 White 9
3 PM Wed 35 36 NW 8 7590 7590 1310 White 7
4 PM Wed 34 34 NW 10 7155 7155 875 White 5
5 PM Wed 33 33 NW 10 6935 6935 655 White 4
6 PM Wed 32 32 NW 10 6715 6715 435 White 3
7 PM Wed 31 31 W 12 6493 6280 0 White 2
8 PM Wed 30 30 W 12 6272 6280 0 White 1
9 PM Wed 30 30 W 12 6272 6280 0 White 1
10 PM Wed 29 29 W 16 6049 6280 0 White 0
11 PM Wed 29 29 W 16 6049 6280 0 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 28 28 W 16 5761 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 28 28 W 18 5761 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 28 28 W 18 5761 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 28 28 W 18 5761 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 27 27 W 16 5424 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 28 28 W 16 5761 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 28 28 W 16 5761 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 28 28 W 12 5761 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 30 30 W 12 6272 6280 0 White 1
9 AM Thu 32 32 W 12 6715 6715 435 White 3
10 AM Thu 33 33 N 7 6935 6935 655 White 4
11 AM Thu 34 35 N 7 7373 7373 1093 White 6
12 Noon Thu 34 35 N 7 7373 7373 1093 White 6
1 PM Thu 34 35 N 10 7373 7373 1093 White 6
2 PM Thu 34 34 N 10 7155 7155 875 White 5
3 PM Thu 33 33 N 10 6935 6935 655 White 4
4 PM Thu 31 31 N 15 6493 6280 0 White 2
5 PM Thu 30 30 N 15 6272 6280 0 White 1
6 PM Thu 29 29 N 15 6049 6280 0 White 0
7 PM Thu 28 28 N 7 5761 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 27 27 N 7 5424 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 27 27 N 7 5424 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 27 27 N 3 5424 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 26 26 N 3 5083 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 26 26 N 3 5083 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 25 25 NE 3 4888 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 25 25 NE 3 4888 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 26 26 NE 3 5083 6280 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com