Detailed Predictions for: Blackhawk
Launch Altitude (f): 6280
LZ Altitude (f): 3700
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

15 JUN 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 64 64 W 8 5623 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 64 64 W 8 5623 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 68 68 W 7 6175 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 71 72 W 6 6888 6310 30 Blue 2
9 AM Sat 73 76 NW 6 9150 7946 1666 Blue 6
10 AM Sat 76 81 NW 6 12341 10068 3788 Blue 11
11 AM Sat 77 83 N 7 13558 11560 5280 Blue 13
12 Noon Sat 79 86 N 7 15217 13409 7129 Blue 16
1 PM Sat 81 88 N 7 16543 14523 8243 Blue 18
2 PM Sat 83 90 N 8 16994 15565 9285 Blue 20
3 PM Sat 83 88 N 8 16543 14523 8243 Blue 18
4 PM Sat 84 88 NW 8 16543 14523 8243 Blue 18
5 PM Sat 83 85 W 9 14683 12820 6540 Blue 15
6 PM Sat 81 82 W 10 12963 10880 4600 Blue 12
7 PM Sat 79 79 SW 12 11000 9107 2827 Blue 9
8 PM Sat 75 75 SW 16 8764 6866 586 Blue 5
9 PM Sat 73 73 SW 16 7976 6447 167 Blue 3
10 PM Sat 72 72 SW 16 6888 6310 30 Blue 2
11 PM Sat 70 70 SW 14 6450 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 70 70 SW 13 6450 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 68 68 SW 10 6175 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 67 67 W 9 6037 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 66 66 W 9 5899 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 66 66 SW 8 5899 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 65 65 SW 7 5761 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 65 65 S 7 5761 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 69 69 SW 2 6313 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 71 72 N 2 6888 6310 30 Blue 2
9 AM Sun 72 75 N 3 8764 6866 586 Blue 5
10 AM Sun 75 79 N 5 11000 9107 2827 Blue 9
11 AM Sun 76 81 N 7 12341 10068 3788 Blue 11
12 Noon Sun 78 84 N 7 14131 12204 5924 Blue 14
1 PM Sun 79 85 N 5 14683 12820 6540 Blue 15
2 PM Sun 81 87 SW 5 15734 13976 7696 Blue 17
3 PM Sun 81 86 SW 12 15217 13409 7129 Blue 16
4 PM Sun 82 85 SW 14 14683 12820 6540 Blue 15
5 PM Sun 81 83 SW 24 13558 11560 5280 Blue 13
6 PM Sun 79 80 SW 23 11688 9484 3204 Blue 10
7 PM Sun 76 76 SW 22 9150 7946 1666 Blue 6
8 PM Sun 72 72 SW 18 6888 6310 30 Blue 2
9 PM Sun 70 70 SW 16 6450 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 69 69 SW 15 6313 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 68 68 W 15 6175 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 67 67 W 15 6037 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 66 66 W 14 5899 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 64 64 W 13 5623 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 63 63 W 12 5499 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 63 63 W 9 5499 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 62 62 W 7 5499 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 62 62 W 6 5499 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 66 66 W 5 5899 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 68 69 NW 3 6313 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 70 73 N 5 7976 6447 167 Blue 3
10 AM Mon 72 76 N 5 9150 7946 1666 Blue 6
11 AM Mon 74 80 NE 7 11688 9484 3204 Blue 10
12 Noon Mon 76 83 NE 8 13558 11560 5280 Blue 13
1 PM Mon 77 85 NE 9 14683 12820 6540 Blue 15
2 PM Mon 79 86 NE 10 15217 13409 7129 Blue 16
3 PM Mon 79 85 NE 12 14683 12820 6540 Blue 15
4 PM Mon 80 84 NE 10 14131 12204 5924 Blue 14
5 PM Mon 79 81 NE 9 12341 10068 3788 Blue 11
6 PM Mon 77 78 N 7 10269 8725 2445 Blue 8
7 PM Mon 75 75 W 3 8764 6866 586 Blue 5
8 PM Mon 72 72 W 6 6888 6310 30 Blue 2
9 PM Mon 70 70 W 8 6450 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 69 69 W 9 6313 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 68 68 W 10 6175 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 68 68 W 12 6175 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 66 66 W 10 5899 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 65 65 W 9 5761 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 64 64 W 8 5623 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 64 64 W 5 5623 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 63 63 W 2 5499 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 63 63 W 2 5499 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 67 67 W 2 6037 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 69 70 E 3 6450 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 71 74 E 3 8373 6645 365 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 74 79 E 3 11000 9107 2827 Blue 9
11 AM Tue 75 82 E 13 12963 10880 4600 Blue 12
12 Noon Tue 77 85 E 13 14683 12820 6540 Blue 15
1 PM Tue 79 87 E 13 15734 13976 7696 Blue 17
2 PM Tue 81 88 E 13 16543 14523 8243 Blue 18
3 PM Tue 82 88 E 13 16543 14523 8243 Blue 18
4 PM Tue 82 86 E 13 15217 13409 7129 Blue 16
5 PM Tue 81 83 E 10 13558 11560 5280 Blue 13
6 PM Tue 79 80 E 10 11688 9484 3204 Blue 10
7 PM Tue 77 77 E 10 9530 8339 2059 Blue 7
8 PM Tue 74 74 SW 2 8373 6645 365 Blue 4
9 PM Tue 72 72 SW 2 6888 6310 30 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 71 71 SW 2 6652 6280 0 Blue 1
11 PM Tue 70 70 W 12 6450 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 70 70 W 12 6450 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 68 68 W 12 6175 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 67 67 W 10 6037 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 66 66 W 10 5899 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 66 66 W 10 5899 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 65 65 W 9 5761 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 65 65 W 9 5761 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 69 69 W 9 6313 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 71 72 W 6 6888 6310 30 Blue 2
9 AM Wed 73 76 W 6 9150 7946 1666 Blue 6
10 AM Wed 76 81 W 6 12341 10068 3788 Blue 11
11 AM Wed 77 84 W 3 14131 12204 5924 Blue 14
12 Noon Wed 79 87 W 3 15734 13976 7696 Blue 17
1 PM Wed 81 89 W 3 16769 15052 8772 Blue 19
2 PM Wed 83 90 W 2 16994 15565 9285 Blue 20
3 PM Wed 84 90 W 2 16994 15565 9285 Blue 20
4 PM Wed 84 88 W 2 16543 14523 8243 Blue 18
5 PM Wed 83 85 W 7 14683 12820 6540 Blue 15
6 PM Wed 81 82 W 7 12963 10880 4600 Blue 12
7 PM Wed 79 79 W 7 11000 9107 2827 Blue 9
8 PM Wed 76 76 SW 16 9150 7946 1666 Blue 6
9 PM Wed 74 74 SW 16 8373 6645 365 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 73 73 SW 16 7976 6447 167 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 72 72 W 16 6888 6310 30 Blue 2
12 Midnight Thu 72 72 W 16 6888 6310 30 Blue 2
1 AM Thu 70 70 W 16 6450 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 69 69 W 13 6313 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 68 68 W 13 6175 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 68 68 W 13 6175 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 67 67 W 13 6037 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 67 67 W 13 6037 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 71 71 W 13 6652 6280 0 Blue 1
8 AM Thu 72 73 W 10 7976 6447 167 Blue 3
9 AM Thu 74 77 W 10 9530 8339 2059 Blue 7
10 AM Thu 76 81 W 10 12341 10068 3788 Blue 11
11 AM Thu 77 84 W 14 14131 12204 5924 Blue 14
12 Noon Thu 79 87 W 14 15734 13976 7696 Blue 17
1 PM Thu 80 88 W 14 16543 14523 8243 Blue 18
2 PM Thu 82 90 W 15 16994 15565 9285 Blue 20
3 PM Thu 83 89 W 15 16769 15052 8772 Blue 19
4 PM Thu 83 87 W 15 15734 13976 7696 Blue 17
5 PM Thu 82 84 W 18 14131 12204 5924 Blue 14
6 PM Thu 80 81 W 18 12341 10068 3788 Blue 11
7 PM Thu 77 77 W 18 9530 8339 2059 Blue 7
8 PM Thu 73 73 W 20 7976 6447 167 Blue 3
9 PM Thu 71 71 W 20 6652 6280 0 Blue 1
10 PM Thu 70 70 W 20 6450 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 68 68 W 21 6175 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 68 68 W 21 6175 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 66 66 W 21 5899 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 64 64 W 18 5623 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 63 63 W 18 5499 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 63 63 W 18 5499 6280 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com