Detailed Predictions for: Blackhawk
Launch Altitude (f): 6280
LZ Altitude (f): 3700
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 57 57 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 59 59 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 61 61 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 64 65 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 65 68 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 66 71 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 68 74 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 71 78 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 74 81 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 76 82 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 76 81 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 77 80 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 76 77 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 74 74 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 72 72 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 70 70 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 68 68 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 67 67 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 65 65 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 63 63 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 61 61 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 59 59 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 57 57 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 56 56 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 56 56 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 57 57 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 59 59 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 60 61 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 62 65 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 64 69 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 66 72 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 69 76 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 73 80 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 75 81 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 75 80 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 75 78 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 73 74 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 71 71 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 68 68 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 66 66 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 64 64 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 61 61 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 60 60 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 59 59 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 58 58 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 58 58 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 57 57 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 56 56 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 55 55 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 55 55 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 56 56 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 57 58 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 59 62 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 62 67 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 64 70 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 67 74 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 70 77 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 72 78 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 74 79 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 73 76 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 73 74 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 70 70 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 65 65 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 62 62 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 60 60 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 59 59 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 58 58 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 57 57 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 56 56 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 54 54 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 54 54 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 53 53 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 53 53 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 55 55 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 57 57 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 60 61 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 63 65 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 66 69 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 68 73 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 70 76 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 71 77 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 71 76 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 70 74 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 69 71 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 68 69 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 67 67 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 66 66 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 64 64 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 62 62 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 60 60 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 59 59 SW 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 59 59 SW 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 59 59 SW 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 58 58 S 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 57 57 S 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 54 54 S 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 52 52 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 50 50 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 49 49 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 49 49 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 50 50 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 53 54 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 56 59 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 58 62 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 59 63 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 59 63 SW 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 57 60 SW 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 54 56 SW 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 51 52 SW 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 48 48 SW 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 46 46 SW 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 44 44 W 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 44 44 W 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 44 44 W 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 45 45 W 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 46 46 W 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 47 47 W 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 47 47 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 48 48 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 48 48 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 49 49 SW 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 51 51 SW 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 53 53 SW 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 56 57 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 58 60 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 60 64 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 61 67 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 61 69 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 60 68 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 59 66 SW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 58 63 SW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 57 60 SW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 56 58 SW 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 54 54 SW 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 53 53 SW 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 51 51 SW 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 50 50 SW 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 48 48 SW 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 47 47 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 45 45 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 44 44 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 44 44 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 44 44 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 43 43 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com