Detailed Predictions for: Blackhawk
Launch Altitude (f): 6280
LZ Altitude (f): 3700
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

18 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 46 46 W 10 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 46 46 W 9 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 46 46 W 8 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 47 47 NW 7 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 48 49 NW 6 5622 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 50 52 NW 7 6173 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 52 55 NW 8 6506 6280 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Fri 54 58 NW 8 7312 6498 218 Blue 6
1 PM Fri 57 61 NW 8 8103 7297 1017 Blue 9
2 PM Fri 59 62 NW 8 8341 7561 1281 Blue 10
3 PM Fri 61 63 NW 8 8878 7824 1544 Blue 11
4 PM Fri 62 63 NW 8 8878 7824 1544 Blue 11
5 PM Fri 61 61 NW 7 8103 7297 1017 Blue 9
6 PM Fri 61 61 NW 6 8103 7297 1017 Blue 9
7 PM Fri 59 59 W 6 7578 6766 486 Blue 7
8 PM Fri 57 57 W 7 7045 6331 51 Blue 5
9 PM Fri 55 55 W 7 6506 6280 0 Blue 3
10 PM Fri 53 53 W 8 6253 6280 0 Blue 1
11 PM Fri 52 52 W 8 6173 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 51 51 W 9 5992 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 51 51 W 9 5992 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 51 51 W 10 5992 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 51 51 W 10 5992 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 50 50 W 10 5807 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 50 50 W 10 5807 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 50 50 W 10 5807 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 51 51 W 9 5992 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 52 52 W 9 6173 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 53 54 W 9 6333 6280 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 54 56 W 10 6776 6280 0 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 55 58 NW 10 7312 6498 218 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 57 61 NW 12 8103 7297 1017 Blue 9
1 PM Sat 60 64 NW 13 9434 8084 1804 Blue 12
2 PM Sat 62 66 NW 14 10348 8819 2539 Blue 14
3 PM Sat 63 66 NW 14 10348 8819 2539 Blue 14
4 PM Sat 64 65 W 14 9972 8320 2040 Blue 13
5 PM Sat 65 65 W 14 9972 8320 2040 Blue 13
6 PM Sat 64 64 W 14 9434 8084 1804 Blue 12
7 PM Sat 65 65 W 14 9972 8320 2040 Blue 13
8 PM Sat 64 64 W 15 9434 8084 1804 Blue 12
9 PM Sat 62 62 W 17 8341 7561 1281 Blue 10
10 PM Sat 61 61 W 20 8103 7297 1017 Blue 9
11 PM Sat 59 59 W 22 7578 6766 486 Blue 7
12 Midnight Sun 57 57 W 21 7045 6331 51 Blue 5
1 AM Sun 56 56 W 20 6776 6280 0 Blue 4
2 AM Sun 54 54 W 17 6333 6280 0 Blue 2
3 AM Sun 52 52 W 15 6173 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 51 51 W 13 5992 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 50 50 W 12 5807 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 49 49 W 9 5622 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 49 49 W 8 5622 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 50 50 W 7 5807 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 51 52 NW 7 6173 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 52 54 N 8 6333 6280 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 54 57 NE 8 7045 6331 51 Blue 5
12 Noon Sun 56 60 NE 9 7842 7032 752 Blue 8
1 PM Sun 58 62 NE 10 8341 7561 1281 Blue 10
2 PM Sun 60 64 NE 10 9434 8084 1804 Blue 12
3 PM Sun 62 64 NE 10 9434 8084 1804 Blue 12
4 PM Sun 62 63 N 9 8878 7824 1544 Blue 11
5 PM Sun 62 62 N 9 8341 7561 1281 Blue 10
6 PM Sun 60 60 N 8 7842 7032 752 Blue 8
7 PM Sun 58 58 E 7 7312 6498 218 Blue 6
8 PM Sun 55 55 E 6 6506 6280 0 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 54 54 E 7 6333 6280 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 54 54 E 7 6333 6280 0 Blue 2
11 PM Sun 54 54 E 8 6333 6280 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Mon 54 54 E 8 6333 6280 0 Blue 2
1 AM Mon 54 54 E 8 6333 6280 0 Blue 2
2 AM Mon 53 53 E 8 6253 6280 0 Blue 1
3 AM Mon 52 52 E 7 6173 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 51 51 NE 7 5992 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 51 51 N 6 5992 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 53 53 N 6 6253 6280 0 Blue 1
7 AM Mon 55 55 N 6 6506 6280 0 Blue 3
8 AM Mon 57 57 E 5 7045 6331 51 Blue 5
9 AM Mon 58 59 E 5 7578 6766 486 Blue 7
10 AM Mon 59 61 E 5 8103 7297 1017 Blue 9
11 AM Mon 60 63 E 9 8878 7824 1544 Blue 11
12 Noon Mon 62 66 E 9 10348 8819 2539 Blue 14
1 PM Mon 63 67 E 9 10676 9367 3087 Blue 15
2 PM Mon 64 68 E 10 10986 9898 3618 Blue 16
3 PM Mon 66 69 E 10 11074 10297 4017 Blue 17
4 PM Mon 67 68 E 10 10986 9898 3618 Blue 16
5 PM Mon 66 66 NE 7 10348 8819 2539 Blue 14
6 PM Mon 66 66 NE 7 10348 8819 2539 Blue 14
7 PM Mon 65 65 NE 7 9972 8320 2040 Blue 13
8 PM Mon 63 63 E 6 8878 7824 1544 Blue 11
9 PM Mon 62 62 E 6 8341 7561 1281 Blue 10
10 PM Mon 60 60 E 6 7842 7032 752 Blue 8
11 PM Mon 59 59 E 8 7578 6766 486 Blue 7
12 Midnight Tue 59 59 E 8 7578 6766 486 Blue 7
1 AM Tue 58 58 E 8 7312 6498 218 Blue 6
2 AM Tue 57 57 E 7 7045 6331 51 Blue 5
3 AM Tue 55 55 E 7 6506 6280 0 Blue 3
4 AM Tue 54 54 E 7 6333 6280 0 Blue 2
5 AM Tue 54 54 E 7 6333 6280 0 Blue 2
6 AM Tue 56 56 E 7 6776 6280 0 Blue 4
7 AM Tue 59 59 E 7 7578 6766 486 Blue 7
8 AM Tue 61 61 E 6 8103 7297 1017 Blue 9
9 AM Tue 63 64 E 6 9434 8084 1804 Blue 12
10 AM Tue 63 65 E 6 9972 8320 2040 Blue 13
11 AM Tue 64 67 E 7 10676 9367 3087 Blue 15
12 Noon Tue 66 70 E 7 11163 10622 4342 Blue 18
1 PM Tue 68 72 E 7 11339 11059 4779 Blue 20
2 PM Tue 70 74 NE 8 11516 11235 4955 Blue 22
3 PM Tue 71 74 NE 8 11516 11235 4955 Blue 22
4 PM Tue 72 73 NE 8 11428 11147 4867 Blue 21
5 PM Tue 71 71 N 5 11251 10944 4664 Blue 19
6 PM Tue 71 71 N 5 11251 10944 4664 Blue 19
7 PM Tue 70 70 N 5 11163 10622 4342 Blue 18
8 PM Tue 68 68 W 7 10986 9898 3618 Blue 16
9 PM Tue 66 66 W 7 10348 8819 2539 Blue 14
10 PM Tue 64 64 W 7 9434 8084 1804 Blue 12
11 PM Tue 62 62 W 10 8341 7561 1281 Blue 10
12 Midnight Wed 62 62 W 10 8341 7561 1281 Blue 10
1 AM Wed 62 62 W 10 8341 7561 1281 Blue 10
2 AM Wed 61 61 W 12 8103 7297 1017 Blue 9
3 AM Wed 59 59 W 12 7578 6766 486 Blue 7
4 AM Wed 57 57 W 12 7045 6331 51 Blue 5
5 AM Wed 55 55 W 8 6506 6280 0 Blue 3
6 AM Wed 55 55 W 8 6506 6280 0 Blue 3
7 AM Wed 56 56 W 8 6776 6280 0 Blue 4
8 AM Wed 57 57 NW 5 7045 6331 51 Blue 5
9 AM Wed 59 60 NW 5 7842 7032 752 Blue 8
10 AM Wed 60 62 NW 5 8341 7561 1281 Blue 10
11 AM Wed 62 65 N 7 9972 8320 2040 Blue 13
12 Noon Wed 64 68 N 7 10986 9898 3618 Blue 16
1 PM Wed 67 71 N 7 11251 10944 4664 Blue 19
2 PM Wed 69 73 NE 9 11428 11147 4867 Blue 21
3 PM Wed 71 74 NE 9 11516 11235 4955 Blue 22
4 PM Wed 70 71 NE 9 11251 10944 4664 Blue 19
5 PM Wed 70 70 E 8 11163 10622 4342 Blue 18
6 PM Wed 69 69 E 8 11074 10297 4017 Blue 17
7 PM Wed 67 67 E 8 10676 9367 3087 Blue 15
8 PM Wed 65 65 E 6 9972 8320 2040 Blue 13
9 PM Wed 64 64 E 6 9434 8084 1804 Blue 12
10 PM Wed 63 63 E 6 8878 7824 1544 Blue 11
11 PM Wed 62 62 E 5 8341 7561 1281 Blue 10
12 Midnight Thu 62 62 E 5 8341 7561 1281 Blue 10
1 AM Thu 61 61 E 5 8103 7297 1017 Blue 9
2 AM Thu 59 59 NE 9 7578 6766 486 Blue 7
3 AM Thu 57 57 NE 9 7045 6331 51 Blue 5
4 AM Thu 54 54 NE 9 6333 6280 0 Blue 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com