Detailed Predictions for: Blackhawk
Launch Altitude (f): 6280
LZ Altitude (f): 3700
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

24 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 68 68 SW 16 5019 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 67 67 SW 15 4895 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 67 67 SW 12 4895 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 67 68 SW 1 5019 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 68 70 NE 1 6016 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 70 74 NE 3 7976 7102 822 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 72 77 E 8 8429 7968 1688 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 75 82 NE 8 9774 8832 2552 Blue 11
1 PM Sat 79 86 NE 7 11386 10032 3752 Blue 15
2 PM Sat 82 88 N 7 11804 10819 4539 Blue 17
3 PM Sat 84 89 N 6 11980 11300 5020 Blue 18
4 PM Sat 84 87 NW 3 11628 10327 4047 Blue 16
5 PM Sat 85 87 W 5 11628 10327 4047 Blue 16
6 PM Sat 84 84 SW 7 10402 9436 3156 Blue 13
7 PM Sat 82 82 SW 9 9774 8832 2552 Blue 11
8 PM Sat 80 80 SW 13 9169 8411 2131 Blue 9
9 PM Sat 79 79 SW 13 8863 8200 1920 Blue 8
10 PM Sat 78 78 SW 13 8640 8077 1797 Blue 7
11 PM Sat 77 77 SW 12 8429 7968 1688 Blue 6
12 Midnight Sun 76 76 SW 10 8218 7860 1580 Blue 5
1 AM Sun 75 75 SW 9 8085 7739 1459 Blue 4
2 AM Sun 74 74 SW 8 7976 7102 822 Blue 3
3 AM Sun 72 72 SW 8 7751 6280 0 Blue 1
4 AM Sun 71 71 SW 8 7258 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 70 70 SW 8 6016 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 71 71 SW 8 7258 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 72 72 SW 8 7751 6280 0 Blue 1
8 AM Sun 74 74 W 5 7976 7102 822 Blue 3
9 AM Sun 75 77 NW 5 8429 7968 1688 Blue 6
10 AM Sun 77 81 NW 5 9473 8620 2340 Blue 10
11 AM Sun 78 84 N 6 10402 9436 3156 Blue 13
12 Noon Sun 80 87 N 7 11628 10327 4047 Blue 16
1 PM Sun 82 89 N 7 11980 11300 5020 Blue 18
2 PM Sun 84 91 N 8 12332 11770 5490 Blue 20
3 PM Sun 85 90 N 8 12156 11594 5314 Blue 19
4 PM Sun 85 89 N 8 11980 11300 5020 Blue 18
5 PM Sun 86 88 NW 9 11804 10819 4539 Blue 17
6 PM Sun 84 84 NW 9 10402 9436 3156 Blue 13
7 PM Sun 82 82 NW 12 9774 8832 2552 Blue 11
8 PM Sun 79 79 W 14 8863 8200 1920 Blue 8
9 PM Sun 77 77 W 16 8429 7968 1688 Blue 6
10 PM Sun 76 76 W 16 8218 7860 1580 Blue 5
11 PM Sun 75 75 W 16 8085 7739 1459 Blue 4
12 Midnight Mon 75 75 W 16 8085 7739 1459 Blue 4
1 AM Mon 74 74 W 15 7976 7102 822 Blue 3
2 AM Mon 74 74 W 13 7976 7102 822 Blue 3
3 AM Mon 72 72 W 13 7751 6280 0 Blue 1
4 AM Mon 71 71 W 12 7258 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 71 71 W 9 7258 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 72 72 W 10 7751 6280 0 Blue 1
7 AM Mon 74 74 W 9 7976 7102 822 Blue 3
8 AM Mon 76 76 W 5 8218 7860 1580 Blue 5
9 AM Mon 77 78 NW 5 8640 8077 1797 Blue 7
10 AM Mon 78 80 NW 5 9169 8411 2131 Blue 9
11 AM Mon 80 84 N 6 10402 9436 3156 Blue 13
12 Noon Mon 82 86 N 6 11386 10032 3752 Blue 15
1 PM Mon 84 89 N 7 11980 11300 5020 Blue 18
2 PM Mon 86 90 N 9 12156 11594 5314 Blue 19
3 PM Mon 87 90 N 9 12156 11594 5314 Blue 19
4 PM Mon 87 89 N 9 11980 11300 5020 Blue 18
5 PM Mon 88 89 N 7 11980 11300 5020 Blue 18
6 PM Mon 87 87 N 5 11628 10327 4047 Blue 16
7 PM Mon 85 85 W 7 10900 9735 3455 Blue 14
8 PM Mon 83 83 W 6 10074 9135 2855 Blue 12
9 PM Mon 81 81 W 7 9473 8620 2340 Blue 10
10 PM Mon 79 79 W 8 8863 8200 1920 Blue 8
11 PM Mon 78 78 W 10 8640 8077 1797 Blue 7
12 Midnight Tue 76 76 W 10 8218 7860 1580 Blue 5
1 AM Tue 74 74 W 9 7976 7102 822 Blue 3
2 AM Tue 73 73 W 8 7867 6280 0 Blue 2
3 AM Tue 72 72 W 8 7751 6280 0 Blue 1
4 AM Tue 71 71 W 8 7258 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 71 71 W 6 7258 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 72 72 W 6 7751 6280 0 Blue 1
7 AM Tue 75 75 W 6 8085 7739 1459 Blue 4
8 AM Tue 77 77 SW 2 8429 7968 1688 Blue 6
9 AM Tue 79 81 SW 2 9473 8620 2340 Blue 10
10 AM Tue 82 85 SW 2 10900 9735 3455 Blue 14
11 AM Tue 84 90 S 9 12156 11594 5314 Blue 19
12 Noon Tue 86 93 S 9 12621 12120 5840 Blue 22
1 PM Tue 87 94 S 9 14177 12294 6014 Blue 23
2 PM Tue 88 95 W 12 14848 12448 6168 Blue 24
3 PM Tue 88 93 W 12 12621 12120 5840 Blue 22
4 PM Tue 88 92 W 12 12479 11945 5665 Blue 21
5 PM Tue 88 90 SW 9 12156 11594 5314 Blue 19
6 PM Tue 86 86 SW 9 11386 10032 3752 Blue 15
7 PM Tue 85 85 SW 9 10900 9735 3455 Blue 14
8 PM Tue 83 83 SW 10 10074 9135 2855 Blue 12
9 PM Tue 82 82 SW 10 9774 8832 2552 Blue 11
10 PM Tue 82 82 SW 10 9774 8832 2552 Blue 11
11 PM Tue 80 80 SW 7 9169 8411 2131 Blue 9
12 Midnight Wed 79 79 SW 7 8863 8200 1920 Blue 8
1 AM Wed 76 76 SW 7 8218 7860 1580 Blue 5
2 AM Wed 74 74 SW 7 7976 7102 822 Blue 3
3 AM Wed 73 73 SW 7 7867 6280 0 Blue 2
4 AM Wed 72 72 SW 7 7751 6280 0 Blue 1
5 AM Wed 72 72 SW 7 7751 6280 0 Blue 1
6 AM Wed 73 73 SW 7 7867 6280 0 Blue 2
7 AM Wed 74 74 SW 7 7976 7102 822 Blue 3
8 AM Wed 76 77 S 3 8429 7968 1688 Blue 6
9 AM Wed 78 80 S 3 9169 8411 2131 Blue 9
10 AM Wed 80 84 S 3 10402 9436 3156 Blue 13
11 AM Wed 82 88 S 9 11804 10819 4539 Blue 17
12 Noon Wed 84 91 S 9 12332 11770 5490 Blue 20
1 PM Wed 87 94 S 9 14177 12294 6014 Blue 23
2 PM Wed 88 95 SW 12 14848 12448 6168 Blue 24
3 PM Wed 87 92 SW 12 12479 11945 5665 Blue 21
4 PM Wed 87 91 SW 12 12332 11770 5490 Blue 20
5 PM Wed 86 88 SW 13 11804 10819 4539 Blue 17
6 PM Wed 85 85 SW 13 10900 9735 3455 Blue 14
7 PM Wed 84 84 SW 13 10402 9436 3156 Blue 13
8 PM Wed 83 83 SW 14 10074 9135 2855 Blue 12
9 PM Wed 82 82 SW 14 9774 8832 2552 Blue 11
10 PM Wed 82 82 SW 14 9774 8832 2552 Blue 11
11 PM Wed 82 82 SW 10 9774 8832 2552 Blue 11
12 Midnight Thu 81 81 SW 10 9473 8620 2340 Blue 10
1 AM Thu 81 81 SW 10 9473 8620 2340 Blue 10
2 AM Thu 79 79 SW 8 8863 8200 1920 Blue 8
3 AM Thu 77 77 SW 8 8429 7968 1688 Blue 6
4 AM Thu 74 74 SW 8 7976 7102 822 Blue 3
5 AM Thu 72 72 SW 7 7751 6280 0 Blue 1
6 AM Thu 71 71 SW 7 7258 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 71 71 SW 7 7258 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 72 73 SW 2 7867 6280 0 Blue 2
9 AM Thu 74 76 SW 2 8218 7860 1580 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 76 80 SW 2 9169 8411 2131 Blue 9
11 AM Thu 78 83 SE 9 10074 9135 2855 Blue 12
12 Noon Thu 81 88 SE 9 11804 10819 4539 Blue 17
1 PM Thu 84 91 SE 9 12332 11770 5490 Blue 20
2 PM Thu 86 92 SW 10 12479 11945 5665 Blue 21
3 PM Thu 85 90 SW 10 12156 11594 5314 Blue 19
4 PM Thu 85 88 SW 10 11804 10819 4539 Blue 17
5 PM Thu 84 86 SW 13 11386 10032 3752 Blue 15
6 PM Thu 82 82 SW 13 9774 8832 2552 Blue 11
7 PM Thu 80 80 SW 13 9169 8411 2131 Blue 9
8 PM Thu 79 79 SW 12 8863 8200 1920 Blue 8
9 PM Thu 78 78 SW 12 8640 8077 1797 Blue 7
10 PM Thu 78 78 SW 12 8640 8077 1797 Blue 7
11 PM Thu 77 77 SW 9 8429 7968 1688 Blue 6
12 Midnight Fri 76 76 SW 9 8218 7860 1580 Blue 5
1 AM Fri 75 75 SW 9 8085 7739 1459 Blue 4
2 AM Fri 74 74 SW 7 7976 7102 822 Blue 3
3 AM Fri 73 73 SW 7 7867 6280 0 Blue 2
4 AM Fri 72 72 SW 7 7751 6280 0 Blue 1

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com