Detailed Predictions for: Blackhawk
Launch Altitude (f): 6280
LZ Altitude (f): 3700
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 55 55 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 57 57 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 60 60 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 63 64 W 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 65 67 NW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 66 70 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 67 72 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 69 75 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 71 77 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 74 79 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 75 79 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 74 76 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 74 75 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 72 72 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 69 69 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 66 66 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 64 64 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 63 63 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 63 63 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 62 62 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 60 60 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 59 59 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 58 58 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 57 57 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 56 56 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 56 56 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 57 57 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 59 60 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 61 63 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 63 67 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 66 72 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 69 76 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 71 78 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 71 78 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 72 77 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 70 73 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 68 69 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 65 65 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 62 62 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 59 59 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 57 57 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 56 56 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 54 54 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 54 54 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 53 53 SW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 53 53 SW 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 52 52 SW 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 52 52 SW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 52 52 SW 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 53 53 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 54 54 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 56 57 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 57 59 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 59 63 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 61 67 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 63 70 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 64 71 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 64 70 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 64 69 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 63 66 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 61 62 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 58 58 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 56 56 SW 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 53 53 SW 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 52 52 SW 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 52 52 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 52 52 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 51 51 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 50 50 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 49 49 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 48 48 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 48 48 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 47 47 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 47 47 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 47 47 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 48 49 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 50 53 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 52 56 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 56 62 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 60 67 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 64 71 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 66 72 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 66 71 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 63 66 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 61 62 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 58 58 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 55 55 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 53 53 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 52 52 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 50 50 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 49 49 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 48 48 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 48 48 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 47 47 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 46 46 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 46 46 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 45 45 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 44 44 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 44 44 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 44 45 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 46 48 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 48 51 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 51 56 NW 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 54 60 NW 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 56 62 NW 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 58 64 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 58 62 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 57 60 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 55 56 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 53 53 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 50 50 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 48 48 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 47 47 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 47 47 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 46 46 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 46 46 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 46 46 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 46 46 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 45 45 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 44 44 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 44 44 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 44 44 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 44 44 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 45 45 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 45 46 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 46 48 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 48 52 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 50 54 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 53 57 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 55 59 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 56 59 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 57 59 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 56 57 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 54 54 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 51 51 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 48 48 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 46 46 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 46 46 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 46 46 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 46 46 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 46 46 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 46 46 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 46 46 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 45 45 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com