Detailed Predictions for: Calabasas
Launch Altitude (f): 1640
LZ Altitude (f): 770
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

15 JUN 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 54 54 SE 6 1885 1796 156 Blue 4
6 AM Sat 54 54 SE 6 1885 1796 156 Blue 4
7 AM Sat 55 55 SE 6 1911 1825 185 Blue 5
8 AM Sat 58 58 S 3 2019 1911 271 Blue 8
9 AM Sat 62 62 S 3 2535 2171 531 Blue 12
10 AM Sat 65 65 S 3 2689 2533 893 Blue 15
11 AM Sat 70 76 S 7 3479 3222 1582 Blue 26
12 Noon Sat 73 81 S 7 3889 3783 2143 Blue 31
1 PM Sat 74 82 S 7 3924 3817 2177 Blue 32
2 PM Sat 76 83 SW 9 3958 3852 2212 Blue 33
3 PM Sat 76 82 SW 9 3924 3817 2177 Blue 32
4 PM Sat 76 80 SW 9 3855 3570 1930 Blue 30
5 PM Sat 75 77 SW 10 3576 3279 1639 Blue 27
6 PM Sat 73 74 SW 10 3285 3108 1468 Blue 24
7 PM Sat 70 70 SW 10 3054 2836 1196 Blue 20
8 PM Sat 66 66 SW 9 2762 2584 944 Blue 16
9 PM Sat 62 62 SW 9 2535 2171 531 Blue 12
10 PM Sat 60 60 SW 9 2398 1961 321 Blue 10
11 PM Sat 59 59 SE 6 2176 1936 296 Blue 9
12 Midnight Sun 58 58 SE 6 2019 1911 271 Blue 8
1 AM Sun 57 57 SE 6 1962 1884 244 Blue 7
2 AM Sun 56 56 S 5 1937 1855 215 Blue 6
3 AM Sun 55 55 S 5 1911 1825 185 Blue 5
4 AM Sun 55 55 S 5 1911 1825 185 Blue 5
5 AM Sun 55 55 SE 3 1911 1825 185 Blue 5
6 AM Sun 55 55 SE 3 1911 1825 185 Blue 5
7 AM Sun 56 56 SE 3 1937 1855 215 Blue 6
8 AM Sun 59 59 SE 3 2176 1936 296 Blue 9
9 AM Sun 62 62 SE 3 2535 2171 531 Blue 12
10 AM Sun 66 66 SE 3 2762 2584 944 Blue 16
11 AM Sun 70 76 S 7 3479 3222 1582 Blue 26
12 Noon Sun 73 81 S 7 3889 3783 2143 Blue 31
1 PM Sun 74 82 S 7 3924 3817 2177 Blue 32
2 PM Sun 76 83 SW 7 3958 3852 2212 Blue 33
3 PM Sun 76 82 SW 7 3924 3817 2177 Blue 32
4 PM Sun 76 80 SW 7 3855 3570 1930 Blue 30
5 PM Sun 75 77 SW 8 3576 3279 1639 Blue 27
6 PM Sun 73 74 SW 8 3285 3108 1468 Blue 24
7 PM Sun 70 70 SW 8 3054 2836 1196 Blue 20
8 PM Sun 66 66 SW 8 2762 2584 944 Blue 16
9 PM Sun 62 62 SW 8 2535 2171 531 Blue 12
10 PM Sun 60 60 SW 8 2398 1961 321 Blue 10
11 PM Sun 59 59 SE 6 2176 1936 296 Blue 9
12 Midnight Mon 58 58 SE 6 2019 1911 271 Blue 8
1 AM Mon 57 57 SE 6 1962 1884 244 Blue 7
2 AM Mon 56 56 SE 6 1937 1855 215 Blue 6
3 AM Mon 55 55 SE 6 1911 1825 185 Blue 5
4 AM Mon 55 55 SE 6 1911 1825 185 Blue 5
5 AM Mon 55 55 SE 2 1911 1825 185 Blue 5
6 AM Mon 55 55 SE 2 1911 1825 185 Blue 5
7 AM Mon 56 56 SE 2 1937 1855 215 Blue 6
8 AM Mon 59 59 SE 2 2176 1936 296 Blue 9
9 AM Mon 62 62 SE 2 2535 2171 531 Blue 12
10 AM Mon 65 65 SE 2 2689 2533 893 Blue 15
11 AM Mon 68 75 S 9 3382 3165 1525 Blue 25
12 Noon Mon 71 79 S 9 3820 3473 1833 Blue 29
1 PM Mon 73 81 S 9 3889 3783 2143 Blue 31
2 PM Mon 74 82 S 9 3924 3817 2177 Blue 32
3 PM Mon 74 80 S 9 3855 3570 1930 Blue 30
4 PM Mon 74 78 S 9 3785 3376 1736 Blue 28
5 PM Mon 73 76 S 7 3479 3222 1582 Blue 26
6 PM Mon 71 72 S 7 3168 2992 1352 Blue 22
7 PM Mon 68 68 S 7 2917 2687 1047 Blue 18
8 PM Mon 64 64 S 7 2638 2476 836 Blue 14
9 PM Mon 61 61 S 7 2479 2017 377 Blue 11
10 PM Mon 59 59 S 7 2176 1936 296 Blue 9
11 PM Mon 58 58 S 3 2019 1911 271 Blue 8
12 Midnight Tue 57 57 S 3 1962 1884 244 Blue 7
1 AM Tue 56 56 S 3 1937 1855 215 Blue 6
2 AM Tue 55 55 S 3 1911 1825 185 Blue 5
3 AM Tue 54 54 S 3 1885 1796 156 Blue 4
4 AM Tue 54 54 S 3 1885 1796 156 Blue 4
5 AM Tue 54 54 S 3 1885 1796 156 Blue 4
6 AM Tue 54 54 S 3 1885 1796 156 Blue 4
7 AM Tue 56 56 S 3 1937 1855 215 Blue 6
8 AM Tue 59 60 S 3 2398 1961 321 Blue 10
9 AM Tue 63 65 S 3 2689 2533 893 Blue 15
10 AM Tue 67 71 S 3 3111 2914 1274 Blue 21
11 AM Tue 72 79 SW 13 3820 3473 1833 Blue 29
12 Noon Tue 75 83 SW 13 3958 3852 2212 Blue 33
1 PM Tue 77 85 SW 13 4731 3921 2281 Blue 35
2 PM Tue 79 87 SW 13 5645 4239 2599 Blue 37
3 PM Tue 79 85 SW 13 4731 3921 2281 Blue 35
4 PM Tue 79 83 SW 13 3958 3852 2212 Blue 33
5 PM Tue 77 80 SW 14 3855 3570 1930 Blue 30
6 PM Tue 75 76 SW 14 3479 3222 1582 Blue 26
7 PM Tue 72 72 SW 14 3168 2992 1352 Blue 22
8 PM Tue 68 68 SW 14 2917 2687 1047 Blue 18
9 PM Tue 64 64 SW 14 2638 2476 836 Blue 14
10 PM Tue 62 62 SW 14 2535 2171 531 Blue 12
11 PM Tue 60 60 SW 6 2398 1961 321 Blue 10
12 Midnight Wed 59 59 SW 6 2176 1936 296 Blue 9
1 AM Wed 58 58 SW 6 2019 1911 271 Blue 8
2 AM Wed 57 57 SW 6 1962 1884 244 Blue 7
3 AM Wed 57 57 SW 6 1962 1884 244 Blue 7
4 AM Wed 56 56 SW 6 1937 1855 215 Blue 6
5 AM Wed 56 56 SW 5 1937 1855 215 Blue 6
6 AM Wed 56 56 SW 5 1937 1855 215 Blue 6
7 AM Wed 58 58 SW 5 2019 1911 271 Blue 8
8 AM Wed 61 62 SW 5 2535 2171 531 Blue 12
9 AM Wed 64 66 SW 5 2762 2584 944 Blue 16
10 AM Wed 68 72 SW 5 3168 2992 1352 Blue 22
11 AM Wed 72 79 SW 17 3820 3473 1833 Blue 29
12 Noon Wed 76 84 SW 17 4279 3887 2247 Blue 34
1 PM Wed 77 86 SW 17 5514 3956 2316 Blue 36
2 PM Wed 79 87 SW 17 5645 4239 2599 Blue 37
3 PM Wed 79 86 SW 17 5514 3956 2316 Blue 36
4 PM Wed 79 84 SW 17 4279 3887 2247 Blue 34
5 PM Wed 78 81 SW 17 3889 3783 2143 Blue 31
6 PM Wed 76 77 SW 17 3576 3279 1639 Blue 27
7 PM Wed 73 73 SW 17 3225 3051 1411 Blue 23
8 PM Wed 69 69 SW 17 2995 2758 1118 Blue 19
9 PM Wed 65 65 SW 17 2689 2533 893 Blue 15
10 PM Wed 63 63 SW 17 2586 2396 756 Blue 13
11 PM Wed 62 62 SW 7 2535 2171 531 Blue 12
12 Midnight Thu 61 61 SW 7 2479 2017 377 Blue 11
1 AM Thu 60 60 SW 7 2398 1961 321 Blue 10
2 AM Thu 59 59 SW 7 2176 1936 296 Blue 9
3 AM Thu 58 58 SW 7 2019 1911 271 Blue 8
4 AM Thu 58 58 SW 7 2019 1911 271 Blue 8
5 AM Thu 58 58 SW 6 2019 1911 271 Blue 8
6 AM Thu 58 58 SW 6 2019 1911 271 Blue 8
7 AM Thu 59 59 SW 6 2176 1936 296 Blue 9
8 AM Thu 62 62 SW 6 2535 2171 531 Blue 12
9 AM Thu 65 65 SW 6 2689 2533 893 Blue 15
10 AM Thu 68 68 SW 6 2917 2687 1047 Blue 18
11 AM Thu 72 79 SW 16 3820 3473 1833 Blue 29
12 Noon Thu 75 83 SW 16 3958 3852 2212 Blue 33
1 PM Thu 77 86 SW 16 5514 3956 2316 Blue 36
2 PM Thu 78 86 SW 16 5514 3956 2316 Blue 36
3 PM Thu 78 85 SW 16 4731 3921 2281 Blue 35
4 PM Thu 78 83 SW 16 3958 3852 2212 Blue 33
5 PM Thu 77 80 SW 15 3855 3570 1930 Blue 30
6 PM Thu 75 76 SW 15 3479 3222 1582 Blue 26
7 PM Thu 72 72 SW 15 3168 2992 1352 Blue 22
8 PM Thu 68 68 SW 15 2917 2687 1047 Blue 18
9 PM Thu 64 64 SW 15 2638 2476 836 Blue 14
10 PM Thu 62 62 SW 15 2535 2171 531 Blue 12
11 PM Thu 61 61 SW 8 2479 2017 377 Blue 11
12 Midnight Fri 60 60 SW 8 2398 1961 321 Blue 10
1 AM Fri 59 59 SW 8 2176 1936 296 Blue 9
2 AM Fri 58 58 SW 8 2019 1911 271 Blue 8
3 AM Fri 57 57 SW 8 1962 1884 244 Blue 7
4 AM Fri 57 57 SW 8 1962 1884 244 Blue 7

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com