Detailed Predictions for: Calabasas
Launch Altitude (f): 1640
LZ Altitude (f): 770
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 53 53 N 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 54 54 N 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 57 57 N 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 60 61 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 63 65 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 65 69 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 68 74 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 69 76 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 70 77 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 71 77 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 71 76 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 70 73 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 68 69 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 64 64 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 60 60 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 57 57 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 55 55 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 54 54 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 52 52 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 51 51 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 50 50 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 49 49 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 48 48 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 47 47 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 46 46 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 47 47 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 52 52 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 55 55 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 59 59 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 62 62 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 65 70 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 66 72 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 68 74 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 69 75 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 69 74 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 68 71 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 66 67 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 63 63 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 58 58 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 56 56 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 54 54 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 53 53 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 52 52 SE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 51 51 SE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 49 49 SE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 48 48 SE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 47 47 SE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 47 47 SE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 46 46 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 47 47 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 51 51 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 55 56 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 58 60 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 61 65 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 64 69 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 66 72 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 67 74 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 68 74 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 68 73 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 67 70 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 65 66 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 62 62 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 57 57 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 55 55 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 53 53 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 52 52 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 51 51 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 50 50 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 48 48 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 47 47 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 46 46 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 46 46 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 45 45 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 46 46 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 51 51 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 54 55 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 58 60 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 61 65 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 64 69 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 65 71 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 67 73 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 68 74 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 68 73 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 67 70 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 66 67 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 62 62 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 58 58 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 56 56 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 54 54 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 53 53 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 52 52 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 50 50 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 49 49 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 48 48 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 47 47 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 47 47 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 46 46 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 47 47 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 51 51 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 55 56 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 58 60 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 61 64 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 64 69 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 66 72 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 67 73 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 68 74 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 68 72 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 67 70 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 65 66 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 62 62 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 57 57 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 55 55 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 53 53 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 51 51 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 50 50 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 49 49 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 48 48 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 47 47 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 46 46 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 45 45 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 45 45 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 48 48 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 51 51 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 55 55 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 59 61 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 61 64 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 63 66 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 65 69 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 67 71 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 68 72 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 68 71 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 67 69 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 65 66 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 61 61 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 57 57 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 54 54 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 52 52 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 50 50 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 49 49 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 48 48 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 47 47 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 46 46 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 45 45 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 44 44 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com