Detailed Predictions for: Calabasas
Launch Altitude (f): 1640
LZ Altitude (f): 770
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

14 DEC 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 53 53 NE 9 1118 1640 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 53 53 NE 9 1118 1640 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 53 53 NE 9 1118 1640 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 52 52 NE 8 615 1640 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 54 54 NE 8 1608 1640 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 56 56 NE 8 2266 1640 0 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 59 59 NE 7 2607 2259 619 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 62 62 NE 7 2910 2603 963 Blue 7
12 Noon Fri 63 63 NE 7 3001 2724 1084 Blue 8
1 PM Fri 64 64 E 7 3092 2815 1175 Blue 9
2 PM Fri 64 64 E 7 3092 2815 1175 Blue 9
3 PM Fri 64 64 E 7 3092 2815 1175 Blue 9
4 PM Fri 62 62 E 3 2910 2603 963 Blue 7
5 PM Fri 59 59 E 3 2607 2259 619 Blue 4
6 PM Fri 57 57 E 3 2388 1640 0 Blue 2
7 PM Fri 55 55 E 6 1999 1640 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 54 54 E 6 1608 1640 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 54 54 E 6 1608 1640 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 53 53 NE 5 1118 1640 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 52 52 NE 5 615 1640 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 52 52 NE 5 615 1640 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 52 52 NE 5 615 1640 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 51 51 NE 5 535 1640 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 51 51 NE 5 535 1640 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 51 51 E 5 535 1640 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 51 51 E 5 535 1640 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 51 51 E 5 535 1640 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 50 50 E 6 535 1640 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 53 53 E 6 1118 1640 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 56 56 E 6 2266 1640 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 60 61 NE 5 2819 2494 854 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 64 66 NE 5 3395 2996 1356 Blue 11
12 Noon Sat 66 68 NE 5 3823 3178 1538 Blue 13
1 PM Sat 67 69 N 3 4067 3382 1742 Blue 14
2 PM Sat 67 68 N 3 3823 3178 1538 Blue 13
3 PM Sat 67 67 N 3 3609 3087 1447 Blue 12
4 PM Sat 65 65 NE 3 3183 2906 1266 Blue 10
5 PM Sat 61 61 NE 3 2819 2494 854 Blue 6
6 PM Sat 59 59 NE 3 2607 2259 619 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 57 57 NE 3 2388 1640 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 56 56 NE 3 2266 1640 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sat 55 55 NE 3 1999 1640 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 54 54 NE 5 1608 1640 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 54 54 NE 5 1608 1640 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 53 53 NE 5 1118 1640 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 53 53 NE 5 1118 1640 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 52 52 NE 5 615 1640 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 52 52 NE 5 615 1640 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 52 52 NE 6 615 1640 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 52 52 NE 6 615 1640 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 52 52 NE 6 615 1640 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 51 51 NE 6 535 1640 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 53 53 NE 6 1118 1640 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 56 56 NE 6 2266 1640 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 60 61 S 6 2819 2494 854 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 62 63 S 6 3001 2724 1084 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 64 65 S 6 3183 2906 1266 Blue 10
1 PM Sun 65 66 S 6 3395 2996 1356 Blue 11
2 PM Sun 65 66 S 6 3395 2996 1356 Blue 11
3 PM Sun 65 65 S 6 3183 2906 1266 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 63 63 S 7 3001 2724 1084 Blue 8
5 PM Sun 59 59 S 7 2607 2259 619 Blue 4
6 PM Sun 56 56 S 7 2266 1640 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 54 54 S 7 1608 1640 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 53 53 S 7 1118 1640 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 52 52 S 7 615 1640 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 51 51 E 5 535 1640 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 51 51 E 5 535 1640 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 50 50 E 5 535 1640 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 50 50 E 5 535 1640 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 49 49 E 5 535 1640 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 49 49 E 5 535 1640 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 49 49 S 7 535 1640 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 49 49 S 7 535 1640 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 49 49 S 7 535 1640 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 48 48 S 7 535 1640 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 50 50 S 7 535 1640 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 52 52 S 7 615 1640 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 55 55 W 3 1999 1640 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 57 57 W 3 2388 1640 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Mon 58 59 W 3 2607 2259 619 Blue 4
1 PM Mon 59 59 W 3 2607 2259 619 Blue 4
2 PM Mon 59 59 W 3 2607 2259 619 Blue 4
3 PM Mon 59 59 W 3 2607 2259 619 Blue 4
4 PM Mon 58 58 W 7 2497 1994 354 Blue 3
5 PM Mon 55 55 W 7 1999 1640 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 53 53 W 7 1118 1640 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 52 52 W 7 615 1640 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 51 51 W 7 535 1640 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 51 51 W 7 535 1640 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 50 50 N 5 535 1640 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 50 50 N 5 535 1640 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 49 49 N 5 535 1640 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 49 49 N 5 535 1640 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 48 48 N 5 535 1640 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 49 49 N 5 535 1640 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 48 48 N 7 535 1640 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 48 48 N 7 535 1640 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 48 48 N 7 535 1640 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 48 48 N 7 535 1640 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 51 51 N 7 535 1640 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 54 54 N 7 1608 1640 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 58 59 N 7 2607 2259 619 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 61 63 N 7 3001 2724 1084 Blue 8
12 Noon Tue 63 65 N 7 3183 2906 1266 Blue 10
1 PM Tue 64 66 N 7 3395 2996 1356 Blue 11
2 PM Tue 64 65 N 7 3183 2906 1266 Blue 10
3 PM Tue 64 64 N 7 3092 2815 1175 Blue 9
4 PM Tue 62 62 NW 7 2910 2603 963 Blue 7
5 PM Tue 59 59 NW 7 2607 2259 619 Blue 4
6 PM Tue 57 57 NW 7 2388 1640 0 Blue 2
7 PM Tue 56 56 NW 7 2266 1640 0 Blue 1
8 PM Tue 55 55 NW 7 1999 1640 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 54 54 NW 7 1608 1640 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 54 54 N 7 1608 1640 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 53 53 N 7 1118 1640 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 52 52 N 7 615 1640 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 53 53 N 7 1118 1640 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 51 51 N 7 535 1640 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 52 52 N 7 615 1640 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 52 52 N 8 615 1640 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 51 51 N 8 535 1640 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 51 51 N 8 535 1640 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 51 51 N 8 535 1640 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 55 55 N 8 1999 1640 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 58 59 N 8 2607 2259 619 Blue 4
10 AM Wed 64 65 N 7 3183 2906 1266 Blue 10
11 AM Wed 68 70 N 7 4398 3595 1955 Blue 15
12 Noon Wed 71 73 N 7 5293 4367 2727 Blue 18
1 PM Wed 72 74 N 7 5546 4692 3052 Blue 19
2 PM Wed 72 73 N 7 5293 4367 2727 Blue 18
3 PM Wed 72 72 N 7 5040 4039 2399 Blue 17
4 PM Wed 70 70 NW 6 4398 3595 1955 Blue 15
5 PM Wed 66 66 NW 6 3395 2996 1356 Blue 11
6 PM Wed 63 63 NW 6 3001 2724 1084 Blue 8
7 PM Wed 61 61 NW 6 2819 2494 854 Blue 6
8 PM Wed 59 59 NW 6 2607 2259 619 Blue 4
9 PM Wed 59 59 NW 6 2607 2259 619 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 58 58 N 7 2497 1994 354 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 57 57 N 7 2388 1640 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Thu 56 56 N 7 2266 1640 0 Blue 1
1 AM Thu 56 56 N 7 2266 1640 0 Blue 1
2 AM Thu 55 55 N 7 1999 1640 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 55 55 N 7 1999 1640 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com