Detailed Predictions for: Calabasas
Launch Altitude (f): 1640
LZ Altitude (f): 770
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 56 56 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 56 56 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 56 56 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 62 63 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 68 70 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 72 75 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 75 81 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 77 84 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 79 86 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 80 86 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 80 85 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 79 82 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 77 78 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 76 76 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 72 72 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 68 68 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 65 65 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 63 63 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 61 61 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 60 60 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 59 59 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 58 58 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 57 57 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 57 57 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 57 57 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 56 56 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 56 56 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 61 62 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 66 68 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 70 73 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 73 79 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 75 82 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 76 83 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 77 83 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 77 82 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 76 79 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 75 76 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 73 73 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 70 70 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 66 66 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 63 63 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 61 61 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 60 60 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 59 59 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 58 58 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 57 57 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 56 56 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 56 56 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 55 55 SE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 55 55 SE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 55 55 SE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 60 60 SE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 65 66 SE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 68 69 SE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 71 76 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 73 79 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 74 80 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 75 80 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 75 79 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 74 77 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 73 74 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 71 71 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 68 68 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 64 64 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 62 62 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 60 60 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 59 59 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 58 58 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 57 57 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 55 55 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 55 55 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 55 55 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 54 54 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 54 54 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 54 54 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 59 59 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 63 63 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 67 67 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 69 73 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 71 76 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 72 77 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 73 78 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 73 77 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 72 74 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 71 72 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 69 69 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 66 66 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 63 63 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 61 61 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 59 59 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 57 57 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 56 56 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 55 55 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 54 54 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 54 54 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 54 54 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 53 53 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 53 53 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 53 53 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 56 56 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 59 59 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 61 61 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 63 65 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 64 67 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 65 68 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 65 68 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 65 67 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 64 65 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 63 63 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 62 62 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 60 60 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 57 57 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 56 56 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 54 54 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 53 53 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 53 53 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 52 52 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 51 51 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 51 51 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 51 51 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 50 50 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 50 50 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 50 50 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 53 53 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 57 57 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 59 59 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 61 66 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 63 68 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 64 70 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 64 69 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 64 68 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 63 66 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 62 63 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 61 61 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 59 59 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 56 56 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 54 54 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 53 53 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 51 51 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 51 51 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 50 50 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 49 49 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 49 49 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 49 49 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com