Detailed Predictions for: Calabasas
Launch Altitude (f): 1640
LZ Altitude (f): 770
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

19 JUN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 56 56 N 5 1773 1640 0 Blue 2
6 AM Tue 55 55 N 5 1726 1640 0 Blue 1
7 AM Tue 61 61 N 5 2051 1879 239 Blue 7
8 AM Tue 66 67 NE 3 2392 2220 580 Blue 13
9 AM Tue 73 76 NE 3 3750 2668 1028 Blue 22
10 AM Tue 77 82 NE 3 6420 5612 3972 Blue 28
11 AM Tue 81 88 SW 2 7443 6989 5349 Blue 34
12 Noon Tue 83 91 SW 2 7645 7430 5790 Blue 37
1 PM Tue 84 92 SW 2 7713 7497 5857 Blue 38
2 PM Tue 87 95 SW 9 7915 7699 6059 Blue 41
3 PM Tue 87 93 SW 9 7780 7564 5924 Blue 39
4 PM Tue 86 90 SW 9 7578 7362 5722 Blue 36
5 PM Tue 85 88 SW 9 7443 6989 5349 Blue 34
6 PM Tue 83 84 SW 9 6744 6234 4594 Blue 30
7 PM Tue 80 80 SW 9 6096 4280 2640 Blue 26
8 PM Tue 77 77 E 3 4330 2713 1073 Blue 23
9 PM Tue 75 75 E 3 3147 2631 991 Blue 21
10 PM Tue 73 73 E 3 2669 2558 918 Blue 19
11 PM Tue 71 71 E 5 2596 2448 808 Blue 17
12 Midnight Wed 71 71 E 5 2596 2448 808 Blue 17
1 AM Wed 69 69 E 5 2506 2334 694 Blue 15
2 AM Wed 68 68 NE 5 2449 2277 637 Blue 14
3 AM Wed 67 67 NE 5 2392 2220 580 Blue 13
4 AM Wed 67 67 NE 5 2392 2220 580 Blue 13
5 AM Wed 66 66 NE 5 2335 2163 523 Blue 12
6 AM Wed 65 65 NE 5 2278 2106 466 Blue 11
7 AM Wed 71 71 NE 5 2596 2448 808 Blue 17
8 AM Wed 77 78 NE 3 4883 3115 1475 Blue 24
9 AM Wed 85 88 NE 3 7443 6989 5349 Blue 34
10 AM Wed 89 94 NE 3 7848 7632 5992 Blue 40
11 AM Wed 93 100 S 2 8665 8122 6482 Blue 46
12 Noon Wed 95 103 S 2 9213 8622 6982 Blue 49
1 PM Wed 96 104 S 2 9508 8804 7164 Blue 50
2 PM Wed 100 108 SW 9 11108 9746 8106 Blue 54
3 PM Wed 100 106 SW 9 10158 9167 7527 Blue 52
4 PM Wed 99 103 SW 9 9213 8622 6982 Blue 49
5 PM Wed 96 99 SW 9 8481 7979 6339 Blue 45
6 PM Wed 94 95 SW 9 7915 7699 6059 Blue 41
7 PM Wed 88 88 SW 9 7443 6989 5349 Blue 34
8 PM Wed 82 82 SW 7 6420 5612 3972 Blue 28
9 PM Wed 79 79 SW 7 5734 3708 2068 Blue 25
10 PM Wed 76 76 SW 7 3750 2668 1028 Blue 22
11 PM Wed 72 72 E 5 2633 2505 865 Blue 18
12 Midnight Thu 72 72 E 5 2633 2505 865 Blue 18
1 AM Thu 69 69 E 5 2506 2334 694 Blue 15
2 AM Thu 67 67 E 5 2392 2220 580 Blue 13
3 AM Thu 65 65 E 5 2278 2106 466 Blue 11
4 AM Thu 65 65 E 5 2278 2106 466 Blue 11
5 AM Thu 63 63 NE 2 2164 1993 353 Blue 9
6 AM Thu 62 62 NE 2 2107 1936 296 Blue 8
7 AM Thu 68 68 NE 2 2449 2277 637 Blue 14
8 AM Thu 73 74 NE 2 2724 2595 955 Blue 20
9 AM Thu 80 83 NE 2 6582 6072 4432 Blue 29
10 AM Thu 84 89 NE 2 7510 7295 5655 Blue 35
11 AM Thu 88 95 S 1 7915 7699 6059 Blue 41
12 Noon Thu 90 98 S 1 8298 7901 6261 Blue 44
1 PM Thu 91 100 S 1 8665 8122 6482 Blue 46
2 PM Thu 94 102 S 10 9030 8440 6800 Blue 48
3 PM Thu 94 101 S 10 8848 8264 6624 Blue 47
4 PM Thu 93 98 S 10 8298 7901 6261 Blue 44
5 PM Thu 91 94 S 9 7848 7632 5992 Blue 40
6 PM Thu 89 90 S 9 7578 7362 5722 Blue 36
7 PM Thu 84 84 S 9 6744 6234 4594 Blue 30
8 PM Thu 79 79 S 9 5734 3708 2068 Blue 25
9 PM Thu 76 76 S 9 3750 2668 1028 Blue 22
10 PM Thu 73 73 S 9 2669 2558 918 Blue 19
11 PM Thu 70 70 SE 3 2560 2391 751 Blue 16
12 Midnight Fri 71 71 SE 3 2596 2448 808 Blue 17
1 AM Fri 68 68 SE 3 2449 2277 637 Blue 14
2 AM Fri 66 66 SE 3 2335 2163 523 Blue 12
3 AM Fri 64 64 SE 3 2221 2050 410 Blue 10
4 AM Fri 64 64 SE 3 2221 2050 410 Blue 10
5 AM Fri 63 63 NE 2 2164 1993 353 Blue 9
6 AM Fri 62 62 NE 2 2107 1936 296 Blue 8
7 AM Fri 68 68 NE 2 2449 2277 637 Blue 14
8 AM Fri 73 74 NE 2 2724 2595 955 Blue 20
9 AM Fri 80 83 NE 2 6582 6072 4432 Blue 29
10 AM Fri 85 90 NE 2 7578 7362 5722 Blue 36
11 AM Fri 88 95 S 14 7915 7699 6059 Blue 41
12 Noon Fri 90 98 S 14 8298 7901 6261 Blue 44
1 PM Fri 91 100 S 14 8665 8122 6482 Blue 46
2 PM Fri 95 103 S 14 9213 8622 6982 Blue 49
3 PM Fri 95 102 S 14 9030 8440 6800 Blue 48
4 PM Fri 94 99 S 14 8481 7979 6339 Blue 45
5 PM Fri 92 95 SW 14 7915 7699 6059 Blue 41
6 PM Fri 89 90 SW 14 7578 7362 5722 Blue 36
7 PM Fri 84 84 SW 14 6744 6234 4594 Blue 30
8 PM Fri 78 78 SW 14 4883 3115 1475 Blue 24
9 PM Fri 75 75 SW 14 3147 2631 991 Blue 21
10 PM Fri 73 73 SW 14 2669 2558 918 Blue 19
11 PM Fri 69 69 E 3 2506 2334 694 Blue 15
12 Midnight Sat 70 70 E 3 2560 2391 751 Blue 16
1 AM Sat 66 66 E 3 2335 2163 523 Blue 12
2 AM Sat 64 64 E 3 2221 2050 410 Blue 10
3 AM Sat 63 63 E 3 2164 1993 353 Blue 9
4 AM Sat 62 62 E 3 2107 1936 296 Blue 8
5 AM Sat 61 61 E 6 2051 1879 239 Blue 7
6 AM Sat 60 60 E 6 1994 1823 183 Blue 6
7 AM Sat 66 66 E 6 2335 2163 523 Blue 12
8 AM Sat 71 72 E 6 2633 2505 865 Blue 18
9 AM Sat 78 81 E 6 6258 4833 3193 Blue 27
10 AM Sat 82 87 E 6 7375 6716 5076 Blue 33
11 AM Sat 86 93 S 14 7780 7564 5924 Blue 39
12 Noon Sat 88 96 S 14 8010 7766 6126 Blue 42
1 PM Sat 89 97 S 14 8152 7834 6194 Blue 43
2 PM Sat 92 100 S 14 8665 8122 6482 Blue 46
3 PM Sat 92 98 S 14 8298 7901 6261 Blue 44
4 PM Sat 91 95 S 14 7915 7699 6059 Blue 41
5 PM Sat 89 92 S 13 7713 7497 5857 Blue 38
6 PM Sat 87 88 S 13 7443 6989 5349 Blue 34
7 PM Sat 83 83 S 13 6582 6072 4432 Blue 29
8 PM Sat 77 77 S 13 4330 2713 1073 Blue 23
9 PM Sat 74 74 S 13 2724 2595 955 Blue 20
10 PM Sat 72 72 S 13 2633 2505 865 Blue 18
11 PM Sat 69 69 E 7 2506 2334 694 Blue 15
12 Midnight Sun 69 69 E 7 2506 2334 694 Blue 15
1 AM Sun 66 66 E 7 2335 2163 523 Blue 12
2 AM Sun 65 65 E 7 2278 2106 466 Blue 11
3 AM Sun 63 63 E 7 2164 1993 353 Blue 9
4 AM Sun 63 63 E 7 2164 1993 353 Blue 9
5 AM Sun 62 62 E 7 2107 1936 296 Blue 8
6 AM Sun 61 61 E 7 2051 1879 239 Blue 7
7 AM Sun 66 66 E 7 2335 2163 523 Blue 12
8 AM Sun 70 71 E 7 2596 2448 808 Blue 17
9 AM Sun 77 80 E 7 6096 4280 2640 Blue 26
10 AM Sun 80 85 E 7 7056 6395 4755 Blue 31
11 AM Sun 83 90 S 13 7578 7362 5722 Blue 36
12 Noon Sun 85 93 S 13 7780 7564 5924 Blue 39
1 PM Sun 86 94 S 13 7848 7632 5992 Blue 40
2 PM Sun 89 97 S 13 8152 7834 6194 Blue 43
3 PM Sun 89 95 S 13 7915 7699 6059 Blue 41
4 PM Sun 88 92 S 13 7713 7497 5857 Blue 38
5 PM Sun 86 89 S 13 7510 7295 5655 Blue 35
6 PM Sun 84 85 S 13 7056 6395 4755 Blue 31
7 PM Sun 79 79 S 13 5734 3708 2068 Blue 25
8 PM Sun 74 74 S 13 2724 2595 955 Blue 20
9 PM Sun 71 71 S 13 2596 2448 808 Blue 17
10 PM Sun 68 68 S 13 2449 2277 637 Blue 14
11 PM Sun 65 65 SE 2 2278 2106 466 Blue 11
12 Midnight Mon 66 66 SE 2 2335 2163 523 Blue 12
1 AM Mon 63 63 SE 2 2164 1993 353 Blue 9
2 AM Mon 61 61 SE 2 2051 1879 239 Blue 7
3 AM Mon 59 59 SE 2 1937 1773 133 Blue 5
4 AM Mon 59 59 SE 2 1937 1773 133 Blue 5

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com