Detailed Predictions for: Calabasas
Launch Altitude (f): 1640
LZ Altitude (f): 770
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

16 OCT 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 56 56 NE 28 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 57 57 NE 28 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 56 56 NE 28 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 59 59 NE 28 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 64 65 NE 28 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 72 74 NE 28 4435 2467 827 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 77 80 N 24 6918 6103 4463 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 80 84 N 24 8358 7217 5577 Blue 14
1 PM Tue 83 88 N 24 10950 8625 6985 Blue 18
2 PM Tue 83 87 N 15 10528 8279 6639 Blue 17
3 PM Tue 82 85 N 15 8799 7575 5935 Blue 15
4 PM Tue 81 83 N 15 8004 6854 5214 Blue 13
5 PM Tue 77 77 N 10 6132 4367 2727 Blue 7
6 PM Tue 73 73 N 10 3676 1887 247 Blue 3
7 PM Tue 68 68 N 10 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 64 64 NE 14 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 61 61 NE 14 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 59 59 NE 14 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 58 58 NE 14 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 58 58 NE 14 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 57 57 NE 14 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 57 57 NE 14 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 57 57 NE 14 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 57 57 NE 14 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 56 56 NE 14 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 57 57 NE 14 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 56 56 NE 14 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 59 59 NE 13 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 64 65 NE 13 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 71 73 NE 13 3676 1887 247 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 76 79 E 7 6546 5908 4268 Blue 9
12 Noon Wed 79 83 E 7 8004 6854 5214 Blue 13
1 PM Wed 82 86 E 7 9873 7929 6289 Blue 16
2 PM Wed 82 86 NW 7 9873 7929 6289 Blue 16
3 PM Wed 81 84 NW 7 8358 7217 5577 Blue 14
4 PM Wed 80 81 NW 7 7285 6298 4658 Blue 11
5 PM Wed 77 77 NW 5 6132 4367 2727 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 73 73 NW 5 3676 1887 247 Blue 3
7 PM Wed 68 68 NW 5 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 65 65 NW 5 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 63 63 NW 5 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 61 61 NW 5 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 60 60 NE 7 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 60 60 NE 7 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 59 59 NE 7 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 59 59 NE 7 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 59 59 NE 7 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 59 59 NE 7 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 58 58 NE 10 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 59 59 NE 10 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 58 58 NE 10 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 61 61 NE 10 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 65 66 NE 10 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 72 74 NE 10 4435 2467 827 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 76 79 NE 7 6546 5908 4268 Blue 9
12 Noon Thu 79 83 NE 7 8004 6854 5214 Blue 13
1 PM Thu 81 86 NE 7 9873 7929 6289 Blue 16
2 PM Thu 81 85 NE 7 8799 7575 5935 Blue 15
3 PM Thu 80 83 NE 7 8004 6854 5214 Blue 13
4 PM Thu 79 81 NE 7 7285 6298 4658 Blue 11
5 PM Thu 76 76 N 6 5936 3623 1983 Blue 6
6 PM Thu 73 73 N 6 3676 1887 247 Blue 3
7 PM Thu 68 68 N 6 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 65 65 N 6 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 63 63 N 6 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 61 61 N 6 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 61 61 NE 10 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 61 61 NE 10 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 60 60 NE 10 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 60 60 NE 10 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 60 60 NE 10 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 60 60 NE 10 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 59 59 N 10 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 60 60 N 10 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 59 59 N 10 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 62 62 N 10 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 67 68 N 10 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 74 76 N 10 5936 3623 1983 Blue 6
11 AM Fri 79 82 NE 13 7647 6492 4852 Blue 12
12 Noon Fri 82 86 NE 13 9873 7929 6289 Blue 16
1 PM Fri 85 90 NE 13 11770 10401 8761 Blue 20
2 PM Fri 85 89 NE 13 11364 9600 7960 Blue 19
3 PM Fri 84 87 NE 13 10528 8279 6639 Blue 17
4 PM Fri 83 85 NE 13 8799 7575 5935 Blue 15
5 PM Fri 80 80 NE 10 6918 6103 4463 Blue 10
6 PM Fri 76 76 NE 10 5936 3623 1983 Blue 6
7 PM Fri 71 71 NE 10 2474 1640 0 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 68 68 NE 10 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 66 66 NE 10 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 64 64 NE 10 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 63 63 N 10 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 63 63 N 10 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 62 62 N 10 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 62 62 N 10 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 62 62 N 10 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 62 62 N 10 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 61 61 N 13 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 62 62 N 13 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 61 61 N 13 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 64 64 N 13 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 68 69 N 13 1471 1640 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 76 78 N 13 6328 5006 3366 Blue 8
11 AM Sat 80 83 NE 15 8004 6854 5214 Blue 13
12 Noon Sat 84 88 NE 15 10950 8625 6985 Blue 18
1 PM Sat 86 90 NE 15 11770 10401 8761 Blue 20
2 PM Sat 86 89 NE 15 11364 9600 7960 Blue 19
3 PM Sat 85 87 NE 15 10528 8279 6639 Blue 17
4 PM Sat 84 85 NE 15 8799 7575 5935 Blue 15
5 PM Sat 80 80 N 5 6918 6103 4463 Blue 10
6 PM Sat 77 77 N 5 6132 4367 2727 Blue 7
7 PM Sat 71 71 N 5 2474 1640 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sat 68 68 N 5 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 65 65 N 5 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 63 63 N 5 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 62 62 N 9 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 62 62 N 9 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 61 61 N 9 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 61 61 N 9 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 61 61 N 9 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 61 61 N 9 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 60 60 N 10 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 61 61 N 10 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 60 60 N 10 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 62 62 N 10 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 67 67 N 10 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 73 75 N 10 5092 2829 1189 Blue 5
11 AM Sun 77 80 N 5 6918 6103 4463 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 80 83 N 5 8004 6854 5214 Blue 13
1 PM Sun 82 85 N 5 8799 7575 5935 Blue 15
2 PM Sun 82 85 N 5 8799 7575 5935 Blue 15
3 PM Sun 81 83 N 5 8004 6854 5214 Blue 13
4 PM Sun 80 81 N 5 7285 6298 4658 Blue 11
5 PM Sun 78 78 W 3 6328 5006 3366 Blue 8
6 PM Sun 74 74 W 3 4435 2467 827 Blue 4
7 PM Sun 70 70 W 3 1897 1640 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 67 67 W 3 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 65 65 W 3 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 63 63 W 3 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 63 63 N 3 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 63 63 N 3 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 62 62 N 3 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 62 62 N 3 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 62 62 N 3 1201 1640 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 62 62 N 3 1201 1640 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com