Detailed Predictions for: Calabasas
Launch Altitude (f): 1640
LZ Altitude (f): 770
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

18 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 52 52 N 21 1001 1640 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 51 51 N 21 1001 1640 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 51 51 N 21 1001 1640 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 54 54 N 21 1001 1640 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 61 62 N 21 3100 1983 343 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 68 70 N 21 5394 3979 2339 Blue 9
11 AM Fri 73 76 NW 18 6265 5838 4198 Blue 15
12 Noon Fri 76 80 NW 18 7026 6329 4689 Blue 19
1 PM Fri 79 83 NW 18 7778 6981 5341 Blue 22
2 PM Fri 79 82 NW 18 7529 6729 5089 Blue 21
3 PM Fri 78 80 NW 18 7026 6329 4689 Blue 19
4 PM Fri 76 77 NW 18 6341 6011 4371 Blue 16
5 PM Fri 75 75 NW 18 6189 5663 4023 Blue 14
6 PM Fri 70 70 NW 18 5394 3979 2339 Blue 9
7 PM Fri 65 65 NW 18 3457 3094 1454 Blue 4
8 PM Fri 62 62 NW 18 3100 1983 343 Blue 1
9 PM Fri 60 60 NW 18 2267 1640 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 58 58 NW 18 1707 1640 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 57 57 N 10 1425 1640 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 56 56 N 10 1141 1640 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 56 56 N 10 1141 1640 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 55 55 NE 6 1001 1640 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 54 54 NE 6 1001 1640 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 53 53 NE 6 1001 1640 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 52 52 NE 5 1001 1640 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 51 51 NE 5 1001 1640 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 51 51 NE 5 1001 1640 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 54 54 NE 5 1001 1640 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 61 62 NE 5 3100 1983 343 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 68 70 NE 5 5394 3979 2339 Blue 9
11 AM Sat 74 77 N 8 6341 6011 4371 Blue 16
12 Noon Sat 77 81 N 8 7278 6477 4837 Blue 20
1 PM Sat 80 84 N 8 8027 7231 5591 Blue 23
2 PM Sat 80 84 N 8 8027 7231 5591 Blue 23
3 PM Sat 79 82 N 8 7529 6729 5089 Blue 21
4 PM Sat 78 79 N 8 6773 6253 4613 Blue 18
5 PM Sat 76 76 N 13 6265 5838 4198 Blue 15
6 PM Sat 71 71 N 13 5512 4499 2859 Blue 10
7 PM Sat 67 67 N 13 4022 3331 1691 Blue 6
8 PM Sat 64 64 N 13 3338 2555 915 Blue 3
9 PM Sat 62 62 N 13 3100 1983 343 Blue 1
10 PM Sat 61 61 N 13 2576 1705 65 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 60 60 N 22 2267 1640 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 59 59 N 22 1988 1640 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 58 58 N 22 1707 1640 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 58 58 N 22 1707 1640 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 57 57 N 22 1425 1640 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 56 56 N 22 1141 1640 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 55 55 N 30 1001 1640 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 54 54 N 30 1001 1640 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 54 54 N 30 1001 1640 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 57 57 N 30 1425 1640 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 64 65 N 30 3457 3094 1454 Blue 4
10 AM Sun 71 73 N 30 5862 5381 3741 Blue 12
11 AM Sun 77 80 N 21 7026 6329 4689 Blue 19
12 Noon Sun 80 84 N 21 8027 7231 5591 Blue 23
1 PM Sun 83 87 N 21 9159 7973 6333 Blue 26
2 PM Sun 83 87 N 21 9159 7973 6333 Blue 26
3 PM Sun 82 85 N 21 8256 7479 5839 Blue 24
4 PM Sun 81 82 N 21 7529 6729 5089 Blue 21
5 PM Sun 79 79 N 21 6773 6253 4613 Blue 18
6 PM Sun 74 74 N 21 6037 5489 3849 Blue 13
7 PM Sun 70 70 N 21 5394 3979 2339 Blue 9
8 PM Sun 67 67 N 21 4022 3331 1691 Blue 6
9 PM Sun 65 65 N 21 3457 3094 1454 Blue 4
10 PM Sun 64 64 N 21 3338 2555 915 Blue 3
11 PM Sun 63 63 N 13 3219 2260 620 Blue 2
12 Midnight Mon 62 62 N 13 3100 1983 343 Blue 1
1 AM Mon 61 61 N 13 2576 1705 65 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 61 61 N 13 2576 1705 65 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 60 60 N 13 2267 1640 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 59 59 N 13 1988 1640 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 58 58 N 13 1707 1640 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 57 57 N 13 1425 1640 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 57 57 N 13 1425 1640 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 60 60 N 13 2267 1640 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 67 68 N 13 4549 3449 1809 Blue 7
10 AM Mon 75 77 N 13 6341 6011 4371 Blue 16
11 AM Mon 81 84 N 13 8027 7231 5591 Blue 23
12 Noon Mon 84 88 N 13 9666 8206 6566 Blue 27
1 PM Mon 87 91 N 13 10751 9532 7892 Blue 30
2 PM Mon 87 91 N 13 10751 9532 7892 Blue 30
3 PM Mon 86 89 N 13 10135 8513 6873 Blue 28
4 PM Mon 85 86 N 13 8637 7727 6087 Blue 25
5 PM Mon 83 83 N 13 7778 6981 5341 Blue 22
6 PM Mon 78 78 N 13 6519 6177 4537 Blue 17
7 PM Mon 74 74 N 13 6037 5489 3849 Blue 13
8 PM Mon 71 71 N 13 5512 4499 2859 Blue 10
9 PM Mon 69 69 N 13 5290 3568 1928 Blue 8
10 PM Mon 68 68 N 13 4549 3449 1809 Blue 7
11 PM Mon 67 67 N 10 4022 3331 1691 Blue 6
12 Midnight Tue 66 66 N 10 3576 3212 1572 Blue 5
1 AM Tue 65 65 N 10 3457 3094 1454 Blue 4
2 AM Tue 65 65 N 10 3457 3094 1454 Blue 4
3 AM Tue 64 64 N 10 3338 2555 915 Blue 3
4 AM Tue 63 63 N 10 3219 2260 620 Blue 2
5 AM Tue 62 62 N 9 3100 1983 343 Blue 1
6 AM Tue 61 61 N 9 2576 1705 65 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 61 61 N 9 2576 1705 65 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 64 64 N 9 3338 2555 915 Blue 3
9 AM Tue 71 72 N 9 5687 5175 3535 Blue 11
10 AM Tue 78 80 N 9 7026 6329 4689 Blue 19
11 AM Tue 83 86 W 9 8637 7727 6087 Blue 25
12 Noon Tue 86 90 W 9 10444 9030 7390 Blue 29
1 PM Tue 89 93 W 9 11085 10353 8713 Blue 32
2 PM Tue 89 93 W 9 11085 10353 8713 Blue 32
3 PM Tue 88 91 W 9 10751 9532 7892 Blue 30
4 PM Tue 86 87 W 9 9159 7973 6333 Blue 26
5 PM Tue 84 84 W 9 8027 7231 5591 Blue 23
6 PM Tue 79 79 W 9 6773 6253 4613 Blue 18
7 PM Tue 74 74 W 9 6037 5489 3849 Blue 13
8 PM Tue 71 71 W 9 5512 4499 2859 Blue 10
9 PM Tue 68 68 W 9 4549 3449 1809 Blue 7
10 PM Tue 67 67 W 9 4022 3331 1691 Blue 6
11 PM Tue 65 65 N 5 3457 3094 1454 Blue 4
12 Midnight Wed 65 65 N 5 3457 3094 1454 Blue 4
1 AM Wed 64 64 N 5 3338 2555 915 Blue 3
2 AM Wed 63 63 N 5 3219 2260 620 Blue 2
3 AM Wed 62 62 N 5 3100 1983 343 Blue 1
4 AM Wed 61 61 N 5 2576 1705 65 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 60 60 N 5 2267 1640 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 59 59 N 5 1988 1640 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 59 59 N 5 1988 1640 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 62 62 N 5 3100 1983 343 Blue 1
9 AM Wed 68 69 N 5 5290 3568 1928 Blue 8
10 AM Wed 75 77 N 5 6341 6011 4371 Blue 16
11 AM Wed 80 83 SW 8 7778 6981 5341 Blue 22
12 Noon Wed 84 88 SW 8 9666 8206 6566 Blue 27
1 PM Wed 86 90 SW 8 10444 9030 7390 Blue 29
2 PM Wed 86 90 SW 8 10444 9030 7390 Blue 29
3 PM Wed 85 88 SW 8 9666 8206 6566 Blue 27
4 PM Wed 83 84 SW 8 8027 7231 5591 Blue 23
5 PM Wed 81 81 SW 8 7278 6477 4837 Blue 20
6 PM Wed 76 76 SW 8 6265 5838 4198 Blue 15
7 PM Wed 71 71 SW 8 5512 4499 2859 Blue 10
8 PM Wed 68 68 SW 8 4549 3449 1809 Blue 7
9 PM Wed 65 65 SW 8 3457 3094 1454 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 64 64 SW 8 3338 2555 915 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 62 62 NE 5 3100 1983 343 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 62 62 NE 5 3100 1983 343 Blue 1
1 AM Thu 61 61 NE 5 2576 1705 65 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 60 60 NE 5 2267 1640 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 59 59 NE 5 1988 1640 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 58 NE 5 1707 1640 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com