Detailed Predictions for: Calabasas
Launch Altitude (f): 1640
LZ Altitude (f): 770
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

16 FEB 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sat 40 40 N 8 801 1640 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 40 40 N 8 801 1640 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 40 40 N 8 801 1640 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 40 40 N 8 801 1640 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 44 44 N 8 1644 1640 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 48 49 N 8 3842 3130 1490 White 3
10 AM Sat 50 52 NW 10 4490 4490 2850 White 6
11 AM Sat 52 54 NW 10 4917 4917 3277 White 8
12 Noon Sat 53 56 NW 10 5338 5338 3698 White 10
1 PM Sat 54 57 NW 10 5548 5548 3908 White 11
2 PM Sat 54 56 NW 10 5338 5338 3698 White 10
3 PM Sat 54 55 NW 10 5128 5128 3488 White 9
4 PM Sat 53 53 NW 10 4703 4703 3063 White 7
5 PM Sat 51 51 NW 10 4275 4275 2635 White 5
6 PM Sat 48 48 NW 10 3627 2329 689 White 3
7 PM Sat 46 46 NW 10 3147 1640 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sat 45 45 NW 10 2348 1640 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 44 44 NW 10 1644 1640 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 44 44 NW 9 1644 1640 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 43 43 NW 9 899 1640 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 43 43 NW 9 899 1640 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 42 42 NW 12 801 1640 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 41 41 NW 12 801 1640 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 41 41 NW 12 801 1640 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 40 40 NW 9 801 1640 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 40 40 NW 9 801 1640 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 40 40 NW 9 801 1640 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 40 40 NW 9 801 1640 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 43 43 NW 9 899 1640 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 46 46 NW 9 3147 1640 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 48 48 W 15 3627 2329 689 White 3
11 AM Sun 49 50 W 15 4058 4058 2418 White 4
12 Noon Sun 50 51 W 15 4275 4275 2635 White 5
1 PM Sun 51 52 W 15 4490 4490 2850 White 6
2 PM Sun 51 51 W 15 4275 4275 2635 White 5
3 PM Sun 51 51 W 15 4275 4275 2635 White 5
4 PM Sun 50 50 NW 12 4058 4058 2418 White 4
5 PM Sun 48 48 NW 12 3627 2329 689 White 3
6 PM Sun 45 45 NW 12 2348 1640 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 43 43 NW 12 899 1640 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 42 42 NW 12 801 1640 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 41 41 NW 12 801 1640 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 41 41 N 20 801 1640 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 40 40 N 20 801 1640 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 40 40 N 20 801 1640 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 40 40 N 20 801 1640 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 38 38 N 20 801 1640 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 38 38 N 20 801 1640 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 37 37 N 20 801 1640 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 37 37 N 20 801 1640 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 37 37 N 20 801 1640 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 37 37 N 20 801 1640 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 41 41 N 20 801 1640 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 46 47 N 20 3410 1641 1 White 2
10 AM Mon 49 51 NW 7 4275 4275 2635 White 5
11 AM Mon 50 53 NW 7 4703 4703 3063 White 7
12 Noon Mon 52 55 NW 7 5128 5128 3488 White 9
1 PM Mon 53 56 NW 7 5338 5338 3698 White 10
2 PM Mon 53 55 NW 7 5128 5128 3488 White 9
3 PM Mon 52 53 NW 7 4703 4703 3063 White 7
4 PM Mon 51 51 NW 16 4275 4275 2635 White 5
5 PM Mon 50 50 NW 16 4058 4058 2418 White 4
6 PM Mon 46 46 NW 16 3147 1640 0 Blue 1
7 PM Mon 43 43 NW 16 899 1640 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 42 42 NW 16 801 1640 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 41 41 NW 16 801 1640 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 40 40 N 13 801 1640 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 39 39 N 13 801 1640 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 39 39 N 13 801 1640 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 39 39 N 13 801 1640 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 37 37 N 13 801 1640 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 37 37 N 13 801 1640 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 36 36 N 15 801 1640 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 36 36 N 15 801 1640 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 36 36 N 15 801 1640 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 36 36 N 15 801 1640 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 40 40 N 15 801 1640 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 46 47 N 15 3410 1641 1 White 2
10 AM Tue 49 51 SW 13 4275 4275 2635 White 5
11 AM Tue 50 53 SW 13 4703 4703 3063 White 7
12 Noon Tue 52 56 SW 13 5338 5338 3698 White 10
1 PM Tue 53 56 SW 13 5338 5338 3698 White 10
2 PM Tue 53 56 SW 13 5338 5338 3698 White 10
3 PM Tue 52 53 SW 13 4703 4703 3063 White 7
4 PM Tue 51 51 SW 14 4275 4275 2635 White 5
5 PM Tue 50 50 SW 14 4058 4058 2418 White 4
6 PM Tue 46 46 SW 14 3147 1640 0 Blue 1
7 PM Tue 44 44 SW 14 1644 1640 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 43 43 SW 14 899 1640 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 42 42 SW 14 801 1640 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 42 42 N 9 801 1640 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 41 41 N 9 801 1640 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 40 40 N 9 801 1640 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 40 40 N 9 801 1640 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 39 39 N 9 801 1640 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 38 38 N 9 801 1640 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 38 38 N 8 801 1640 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 37 37 N 8 801 1640 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 38 38 N 8 801 1640 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 38 38 N 8 801 1640 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 42 42 N 8 801 1640 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 47 48 N 8 3627 2329 689 White 3
10 AM Wed 50 52 SW 13 4490 4490 2850 White 6
11 AM Wed 51 53 SW 13 4703 4703 3063 White 7
12 Noon Wed 53 56 SW 13 5338 5338 3698 White 10
1 PM Wed 54 56 SW 13 5338 5338 3698 White 10
2 PM Wed 54 56 SW 13 5338 5338 3698 White 10
3 PM Wed 53 54 SW 13 4917 4917 3277 White 8
4 PM Wed 53 53 SW 14 4703 4703 3063 White 7
5 PM Wed 51 51 SW 14 4275 4275 2635 White 5
6 PM Wed 48 48 SW 14 3627 2329 689 White 3
7 PM Wed 46 46 SW 14 3147 1640 0 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 44 44 SW 14 1644 1640 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 43 43 SW 14 899 1640 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 43 43 S 7 899 1640 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 42 42 S 7 801 1640 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 42 42 S 7 801 1640 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 42 42 S 7 801 1640 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 40 40 S 7 801 1640 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 40 40 S 7 801 1640 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 39 39 W 12 801 1640 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 39 39 W 12 801 1640 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 39 39 W 12 801 1640 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 39 39 W 12 801 1640 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 42 42 W 12 801 1640 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 46 46 W 12 3147 1640 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 48 49 W 18 3842 3130 1490 White 3
11 AM Thu 49 51 W 18 4275 4275 2635 White 5
12 Noon Thu 50 52 W 18 4490 4490 2850 White 6
1 PM Thu 51 53 W 18 4703 4703 3063 White 7
2 PM Thu 51 52 W 18 4490 4490 2850 White 6
3 PM Thu 51 52 W 18 4490 4490 2850 White 6
4 PM Thu 50 50 W 20 4058 4058 2418 White 4
5 PM Thu 49 49 W 20 3842 3130 1490 White 3
6 PM Thu 46 46 W 20 3147 1640 0 Blue 1
7 PM Thu 44 44 W 20 1644 1640 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 43 43 W 20 899 1640 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 42 42 W 20 801 1640 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 42 42 NW 9 801 1640 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 41 41 NW 9 801 1640 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 41 41 NW 9 801 1640 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 41 41 NW 9 801 1640 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 40 40 NW 9 801 1640 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 40 40 NW 9 801 1640 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com