Detailed Predictions for: Cayucos
Launch Altitude (f): 700
LZ Altitude (f): 1
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

25 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Mon 54 54 NW 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 53 53 NW 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 53 53 NW 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 56 56 W 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 62 63 W 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 69 71 W 7 839 700 0 Blue 4
11 AM Mon 75 79 N 7 2777 1424 724 Blue 12
12 Noon Mon 77 82 N 7 4869 2715 2015 Blue 14
1 PM Mon 76 82 N 7 4869 2715 2015 Blue 14
2 PM Mon 75 80 NW 14 3530 1602 902 Blue 13
3 PM Mon 74 78 NW 14 2077 1246 546 Blue 11
4 PM Mon 72 75 NW 14 1251 902 202 Blue 8
5 PM Mon 70 71 NW 13 839 700 0 Blue 4
6 PM Mon 66 66 NW 13 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 62 62 NW 13 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 59 59 NW 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 59 59 NW 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 60 60 NW 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 61 61 NW 8 0 700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 62 62 NW 8 0 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 61 61 NW 8 0 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 60 60 NW 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 59 59 NW 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 58 58 NW 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 56 56 W 8 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 55 55 W 8 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 54 54 W 8 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 56 56 NW 13 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 61 62 NW 13 0 700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 67 69 NW 13 0 700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 71 75 NW 9 1251 902 202 Blue 8
12 Noon Tue 72 77 NW 9 1610 1067 367 Blue 10
1 PM Tue 70 76 NW 9 1431 966 266 Blue 9
2 PM Tue 68 73 W 10 968 773 73 Blue 6
3 PM Tue 66 70 W 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 64 67 W 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 63 64 NW 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 61 61 NW 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 59 59 NW 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 57 57 W 1 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 58 58 W 1 0 700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 59 59 W 1 0 700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 60 60 N 1 0 700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 60 60 N 1 0 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 60 60 N 1 0 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 59 59 N 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 58 58 N 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 58 58 N 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 56 56 NE 8 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 55 55 NE 8 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 54 54 NE 8 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 56 56 NE 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 61 62 NE 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 68 70 NE 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 73 77 NE 8 1610 1067 367 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 74 79 NE 8 2777 1424 724 Blue 12
1 PM Wed 73 79 NE 8 2777 1424 724 Blue 12
2 PM Wed 70 75 SW 7 1251 902 202 Blue 8
3 PM Wed 69 73 SW 7 968 773 73 Blue 6
4 PM Wed 68 71 SW 7 839 700 0 Blue 4
5 PM Wed 67 68 W 8 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 65 65 W 8 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 62 62 W 8 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 60 60 W 8 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 60 60 W 8 0 700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 60 60 W 8 0 700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 60 60 E 2 0 700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 60 60 E 2 0 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 59 59 E 2 0 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 58 58 E 2 0 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 57 57 E 2 0 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 56 56 E 2 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 56 56 NE 5 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 57 57 NE 5 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 59 59 NE 5 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 61 61 NE 5 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 64 65 NE 5 0 700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 66 68 NE 5 0 700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 68 72 W 14 903 709 9 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 69 74 W 14 1072 838 138 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 69 75 W 14 1251 902 202 Blue 8
2 PM Thu 69 74 W 14 1072 838 138 Blue 7
3 PM Thu 68 72 W 14 903 709 9 Blue 5
4 PM Thu 67 70 W 14 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 66 67 W 12 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 65 65 W 12 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 63 63 W 12 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 62 62 W 12 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 60 60 W 12 0 700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 59 59 W 12 0 700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 58 58 N 1 0 700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 57 57 N 1 0 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 57 57 N 1 0 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 57 57 N 1 0 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 57 57 N 1 0 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 58 58 N 1 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 60 60 N 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 61 61 N 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 64 64 N 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 66 66 N 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 68 69 N 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 70 72 N 6 903 709 9 Blue 5
11 AM Fri 72 76 NW 15 1431 966 266 Blue 9
12 Noon Fri 73 78 NW 15 2077 1246 546 Blue 11
1 PM Fri 73 79 NW 15 2777 1424 724 Blue 12
2 PM Fri 73 78 NW 15 2077 1246 546 Blue 11
3 PM Fri 72 76 NW 15 1431 966 266 Blue 9
4 PM Fri 72 75 NW 15 1251 902 202 Blue 8
5 PM Fri 70 71 NW 15 839 700 0 Blue 4
6 PM Fri 69 69 NW 15 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 68 68 NW 15 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 66 66 NW 15 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 64 64 NW 15 0 700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 63 63 NW 15 0 700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 61 61 N 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 60 60 N 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 58 58 N 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 57 57 N 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 57 57 N 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 57 57 N 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 58 58 N 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 60 60 N 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 63 63 N 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 65 65 N 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 68 69 N 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 70 72 N 6 903 709 9 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 72 76 NW 14 1431 966 266 Blue 9
12 Noon Sat 73 78 NW 14 2077 1246 546 Blue 11
1 PM Sat 73 79 NW 14 2777 1424 724 Blue 12
2 PM Sat 72 77 NW 14 1610 1067 367 Blue 10
3 PM Sat 71 75 NW 14 1251 902 202 Blue 8
4 PM Sat 69 72 NW 14 903 709 9 Blue 5
5 PM Sat 68 69 NW 14 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 66 66 NW 14 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 64 64 NW 14 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 63 63 NW 14 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 62 62 NW 14 0 700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 60 60 NW 14 0 700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 59 59 NW 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 58 58 NW 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 57 57 NW 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 57 57 NW 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 57 57 NW 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 57 57 NW 3 0 700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com