Detailed Predictions for: Cayucos
Launch Altitude (f): 700
LZ Altitude (f): 1
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

17 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 53 53 N 12 525 700 0 Blue 3
6 AM Thu 51 51 N 12 394 700 0 Blue 1
7 AM Thu 51 51 N 12 394 700 0 Blue 1
8 AM Thu 52 52 N 9 464 700 0 Blue 2
9 AM Thu 59 59 N 9 851 700 0 Blue 9
10 AM Thu 63 65 N 9 1178 1013 313 Blue 15
11 AM Thu 65 68 NW 16 1342 1176 476 Blue 18
12 Noon Thu 65 69 NW 16 1396 1231 531 Blue 19
1 PM Thu 63 67 NW 16 1287 1122 422 Blue 17
2 PM Thu 64 68 NW 18 1342 1176 476 Blue 18
3 PM Thu 64 67 NW 18 1287 1122 422 Blue 17
4 PM Thu 63 65 NW 18 1178 1013 313 Blue 15
5 PM Thu 62 62 W 20 1014 850 150 Blue 12
6 PM Thu 60 60 W 20 905 741 41 Blue 10
7 PM Thu 58 58 W 20 796 700 0 Blue 8
8 PM Thu 56 56 NW 18 688 700 0 Blue 6
9 PM Thu 55 55 NW 18 633 700 0 Blue 5
10 PM Thu 54 54 NW 18 579 700 0 Blue 4
11 PM Thu 54 54 N 17 579 700 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Fri 53 53 N 17 525 700 0 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 54 54 N 17 579 700 0 Blue 4
2 AM Fri 53 53 N 17 525 700 0 Blue 3
3 AM Fri 53 53 N 17 525 700 0 Blue 3
4 AM Fri 52 52 N 17 464 700 0 Blue 2
5 AM Fri 51 51 N 14 394 700 0 Blue 1
6 AM Fri 50 50 N 14 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 50 50 N 14 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 52 52 N 14 464 700 0 Blue 2
9 AM Fri 59 59 N 14 851 700 0 Blue 9
10 AM Fri 64 66 N 14 1232 1067 367 Blue 16
11 AM Fri 66 69 N 13 1396 1231 531 Blue 19
12 Noon Fri 66 69 N 13 1396 1231 531 Blue 19
1 PM Fri 64 68 N 13 1342 1176 476 Blue 18
2 PM Fri 65 68 NW 13 1342 1176 476 Blue 18
3 PM Fri 65 67 NW 13 1287 1122 422 Blue 17
4 PM Fri 64 65 NW 13 1178 1013 313 Blue 15
5 PM Fri 62 62 NW 15 1014 850 150 Blue 12
6 PM Fri 61 61 NW 15 960 795 95 Blue 11
7 PM Fri 58 58 NW 15 796 700 0 Blue 8
8 PM Fri 57 57 NW 15 742 700 0 Blue 7
9 PM Fri 55 55 NW 15 633 700 0 Blue 5
10 PM Fri 55 55 NW 15 633 700 0 Blue 5
11 PM Fri 54 54 N 12 579 700 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sat 54 54 N 12 579 700 0 Blue 4
1 AM Sat 54 54 N 12 579 700 0 Blue 4
2 AM Sat 54 54 N 12 579 700 0 Blue 4
3 AM Sat 53 53 N 12 525 700 0 Blue 3
4 AM Sat 52 52 N 12 464 700 0 Blue 2
5 AM Sat 51 51 N 10 394 700 0 Blue 1
6 AM Sat 50 50 N 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 50 50 N 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 52 52 N 10 464 700 0 Blue 2
9 AM Sat 60 60 N 10 905 741 41 Blue 10
10 AM Sat 66 68 N 10 1342 1176 476 Blue 18
11 AM Sat 68 71 NW 22 2205 1340 640 Blue 21
12 Noon Sat 68 72 NW 22 2792 1394 694 Blue 22
1 PM Sat 66 70 NW 22 1723 1285 585 Blue 20
2 PM Sat 67 71 NW 22 2205 1340 640 Blue 21
3 PM Sat 67 70 NW 22 1723 1285 585 Blue 20
4 PM Sat 66 68 NW 22 1342 1176 476 Blue 18
5 PM Sat 65 65 NW 24 1178 1013 313 Blue 15
6 PM Sat 63 63 NW 24 1069 904 204 Blue 13
7 PM Sat 61 61 NW 24 960 795 95 Blue 11
8 PM Sat 59 59 NW 24 851 700 0 Blue 9
9 PM Sat 58 58 NW 24 796 700 0 Blue 8
10 PM Sat 57 57 NW 24 742 700 0 Blue 7
11 PM Sat 57 57 N 14 742 700 0 Blue 7
12 Midnight Sun 56 56 N 14 688 700 0 Blue 6
1 AM Sun 57 57 N 14 742 700 0 Blue 7
2 AM Sun 56 56 N 14 688 700 0 Blue 6
3 AM Sun 56 56 N 14 688 700 0 Blue 6
4 AM Sun 55 55 N 14 633 700 0 Blue 5
5 AM Sun 54 54 NE 14 579 700 0 Blue 4
6 AM Sun 53 53 NE 14 525 700 0 Blue 3
7 AM Sun 53 53 NE 14 525 700 0 Blue 3
8 AM Sun 55 55 NE 14 633 700 0 Blue 5
9 AM Sun 63 63 NE 14 1069 904 204 Blue 13
10 AM Sun 68 70 NE 14 1723 1285 585 Blue 20
11 AM Sun 70 73 N 12 2873 1700 1000 Blue 23
12 Noon Sun 70 74 N 12 2948 2175 1475 Blue 24
1 PM Sun 68 72 N 12 2792 1394 694 Blue 22
2 PM Sun 69 73 N 12 2873 1700 1000 Blue 23
3 PM Sun 69 72 N 12 2792 1394 694 Blue 22
4 PM Sun 68 70 N 12 1723 1285 585 Blue 20
5 PM Sun 66 66 N 12 1232 1067 367 Blue 16
6 PM Sun 65 65 N 12 1178 1013 313 Blue 15
7 PM Sun 62 62 N 12 1014 850 150 Blue 12
8 PM Sun 61 61 N 12 960 795 95 Blue 11
9 PM Sun 59 59 N 12 851 700 0 Blue 9
10 PM Sun 59 59 N 12 851 700 0 Blue 9
11 PM Sun 58 58 N 14 796 700 0 Blue 8
12 Midnight Mon 58 58 N 14 796 700 0 Blue 8
1 AM Mon 58 58 N 14 796 700 0 Blue 8
2 AM Mon 58 58 N 14 796 700 0 Blue 8
3 AM Mon 57 57 N 14 742 700 0 Blue 7
4 AM Mon 56 56 N 14 688 700 0 Blue 6
5 AM Mon 55 55 N 15 633 700 0 Blue 5
6 AM Mon 54 54 N 15 579 700 0 Blue 4
7 AM Mon 54 54 N 15 579 700 0 Blue 4
8 AM Mon 56 56 N 15 688 700 0 Blue 6
9 AM Mon 67 67 N 15 1287 1122 422 Blue 17
10 AM Mon 73 75 N 15 3022 2778 2078 Blue 25
11 AM Mon 76 79 NW 10 3322 3090 2390 Blue 29
12 Noon Mon 76 80 NW 10 3397 3165 2465 Blue 30
1 PM Mon 74 78 NW 10 3247 3016 2316 Blue 28
2 PM Mon 74 78 NW 10 3247 3016 2316 Blue 28
3 PM Mon 74 77 NW 10 3172 2941 2241 Blue 27
4 PM Mon 73 75 NW 10 3022 2778 2078 Blue 25
5 PM Mon 72 72 NW 10 2792 1394 694 Blue 22
6 PM Mon 70 70 NW 10 1723 1285 585 Blue 20
7 PM Mon 66 66 NW 10 1232 1067 367 Blue 16
8 PM Mon 64 64 NW 10 1123 958 258 Blue 14
9 PM Mon 63 63 NW 10 1069 904 204 Blue 13
10 PM Mon 62 62 NW 10 1014 850 150 Blue 12
11 PM Mon 61 61 NE 6 960 795 95 Blue 11
12 Midnight Tue 60 60 NE 6 905 741 41 Blue 10
1 AM Tue 61 61 NE 6 960 795 95 Blue 11
2 AM Tue 61 61 NE 6 960 795 95 Blue 11
3 AM Tue 60 60 NE 6 905 741 41 Blue 10
4 AM Tue 59 59 NE 6 851 700 0 Blue 9
5 AM Tue 58 58 NE 7 796 700 0 Blue 8
6 AM Tue 56 56 NE 7 688 700 0 Blue 6
7 AM Tue 56 56 NE 7 688 700 0 Blue 6
8 AM Tue 58 58 NE 7 796 700 0 Blue 8
9 AM Tue 67 67 NE 7 1287 1122 422 Blue 17
10 AM Tue 74 76 NE 7 3097 2866 2166 Blue 26
11 AM Tue 76 79 NW 10 3322 3090 2390 Blue 29
12 Noon Tue 76 80 NW 10 3397 3165 2465 Blue 30
1 PM Tue 74 78 NW 10 3247 3016 2316 Blue 28
2 PM Tue 74 78 NW 10 3247 3016 2316 Blue 28
3 PM Tue 74 77 NW 10 3172 2941 2241 Blue 27
4 PM Tue 73 75 NW 10 3022 2778 2078 Blue 25
5 PM Tue 71 71 NW 10 2205 1340 640 Blue 21
6 PM Tue 69 69 NW 10 1396 1231 531 Blue 19
7 PM Tue 66 66 NW 10 1232 1067 367 Blue 16
8 PM Tue 64 64 NW 10 1123 958 258 Blue 14
9 PM Tue 62 62 NW 10 1014 850 150 Blue 12
10 PM Tue 61 61 NW 10 960 795 95 Blue 11
11 PM Tue 60 60 N 5 905 741 41 Blue 10
12 Midnight Wed 60 60 N 5 905 741 41 Blue 10
1 AM Wed 60 60 N 5 905 741 41 Blue 10
2 AM Wed 60 60 N 5 905 741 41 Blue 10
3 AM Wed 59 59 N 5 851 700 0 Blue 9
4 AM Wed 58 58 N 5 796 700 0 Blue 8

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com