Detailed Predictions for: Cayucos
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.4282, -120.8728, 700
LZ Altitude (f): 1
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

16 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 56 56 WNW 3 4 579 700 0 Blue 2
1 AM Thu 56 56 WNW 3 4 579 700 0 Blue 2
2 AM Thu 56 56 NW 3 4 579 700 0 Blue 2
3 AM Thu 56 56 NW 3 4 579 700 0 Blue 2
4 AM Thu 56 56 NW 3 4 579 700 0 Blue 2
5 AM Thu 55 55 WNW 2 2 383 700 0 White 1
6 AM Thu 55 55 WNW 2 2 383 700 0 White 1
7 AM Thu 55 55 WNW 2 2 383 700 0 White 1
8 AM Thu 56 56 WNW 2 2 579 700 0 Blue 2
9 AM Thu 57 57 WNW 2 2 734 700 0 Blue 3
10 AM Thu 58 58 WNW 2 2 889 700 0 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 59 62 SW 11 14 1508 1040 340 Blue 8
12 Noon Thu 60 64 SW 11 14 1816 1348 648 Blue 10
1 PM Thu 61 66 SW 11 14 2124 1655 955 Blue 12
2 PM Thu 61 66 WSW 11 14 2124 1655 955 Blue 12
3 PM Thu 62 66 WSW 11 14 2124 1655 955 Blue 12
4 PM Thu 62 64 WSW 11 14 1816 1348 648 Blue 10
5 PM Thu 61 62 WSW 11 14 1508 1040 340 Blue 8
6 PM Thu 60 60 WSW 11 14 1199 732 32 Blue 6
7 PM Thu 57 57 WSW 11 14 734 700 0 Blue 3
8 PM Thu 56 56 WSW 8 9 579 700 0 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 56 56 WSW 8 9 579 700 0 Blue 2
10 PM Thu 56 56 WSW 8 9 579 700 0 Blue 2
11 PM Thu 56 56 WNW 2 2 579 700 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Fri 55 55 WNW 2 2 383 700 0 White 1
1 AM Fri 55 55 WNW 2 2 383 700 0 White 1
2 AM Fri 54 54 NNW 2 2 252 700 0 White 0
3 AM Fri 54 54 NNW 2 2 252 700 0 White 0
4 AM Fri 54 54 NNW 2 2 252 700 0 White 0
5 AM Fri 54 54 NNE 4 5 252 700 0 White 0
6 AM Fri 53 53 NNE 4 5 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 53 53 NNE 4 5 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 54 54 NE 4 5 252 700 0 White 0
9 AM Fri 55 55 NE 4 5 383 700 0 White 1
10 AM Fri 56 56 NE 4 5 579 700 0 Blue 2
11 AM Fri 58 62 SW 11 14 1508 1040 340 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 59 64 SW 11 14 1816 1348 648 Blue 10
1 PM Fri 60 66 SW 11 14 2124 1655 955 Blue 12
2 PM Fri 61 67 SW 11 14 2278 1808 1108 Blue 13
3 PM Fri 62 66 SW 11 14 2124 1655 955 Blue 12
4 PM Fri 62 65 SW 11 14 1970 1501 801 Blue 11
5 PM Fri 61 62 SW 11 14 1508 1040 340 Blue 8
6 PM Fri 60 60 SW 11 14 1199 732 32 Blue 6
7 PM Fri 58 58 SW 11 14 889 700 0 Blue 4
8 PM Fri 57 57 SW 8 9 734 700 0 Blue 3
9 PM Fri 57 57 SW 8 9 734 700 0 Blue 3
10 PM Fri 56 56 SW 8 9 579 700 0 Blue 2
11 PM Fri 56 56 SW 3 4 579 700 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sat 56 56 SW 3 4 579 700 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sat 56 56 SW 3 4 579 700 0 Blue 2
2 AM Sat 55 55 SSE 3 4 383 700 0 White 1
3 AM Sat 55 55 SSE 3 4 383 700 0 White 1
4 AM Sat 55 55 SSE 3 4 383 700 0 White 1
5 AM Sat 55 55 ESE 3 4 383 700 0 White 1
6 AM Sat 54 54 ESE 3 4 252 700 0 White 0
7 AM Sat 54 54 ESE 3 4 252 700 0 White 0
8 AM Sat 55 55 SE 3 4 383 700 0 White 1
9 AM Sat 56 56 SE 3 4 579 700 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 57 57 SE 3 4 734 700 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 58 62 SW 10 12 1508 1040 340 Blue 8
12 Noon Sat 59 65 SW 10 12 1970 1501 801 Blue 11
1 PM Sat 60 66 SW 10 12 2124 1655 955 Blue 12
2 PM Sat 61 67 WSW 12 17 2278 1808 1108 Blue 13
3 PM Sat 62 67 WSW 12 17 2278 1808 1108 Blue 13
4 PM Sat 62 65 WSW 12 17 1970 1501 801 Blue 11
5 PM Sat 61 62 WSW 10 12 1508 1040 340 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 60 60 WSW 10 12 1199 732 32 Blue 6
7 PM Sat 57 57 WSW 10 12 734 700 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sat 56 56 WNW 5 6 579 700 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sat 56 56 WNW 5 6 579 700 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sat 55 55 WNW 5 6 383 700 0 White 1
11 PM Sat 55 55 NNW 4 5 383 700 0 White 1
12 Midnight Sun 54 54 NNW 4 5 252 700 0 White 0
1 AM Sun 54 54 NNW 4 5 252 700 0 White 0
2 AM Sun 54 54 NNW 4 5 252 700 0 White 0
3 AM Sun 53 53 NNW 4 5 0 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 53 53 NNW 4 5 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 53 53 N 5 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 52 52 N 5 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 52 52 N 5 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 53 53 N 6 8 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 54 54 N 6 8 252 700 0 White 0
10 AM Sun 56 56 N 6 8 579 700 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 57 60 NW 10 12 1199 732 32 Blue 6
12 Noon Sun 59 63 NW 10 12 1662 1194 494 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 60 65 NW 10 12 1970 1501 801 Blue 11
2 PM Sun 61 66 WNW 14 19 2124 1655 955 Blue 12
3 PM Sun 62 66 WNW 14 19 2124 1655 955 Blue 12
4 PM Sun 62 64 WNW 14 19 1816 1348 648 Blue 10
5 PM Sun 61 62 WNW 17 23 1508 1040 340 Blue 8
6 PM Sun 60 60 WNW 17 23 1199 732 32 Blue 6
7 PM Sun 58 58 WNW 17 23 889 700 0 Blue 4
8 PM Sun 57 57 NW 12 17 734 700 0 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 57 57 NW 12 17 734 700 0 Blue 3
10 PM Sun 56 56 NW 12 17 579 700 0 Blue 2
11 PM Sun 56 56 NNW 10 12 579 700 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Mon 56 56 NNW 10 12 579 700 0 Blue 2
1 AM Mon 56 56 NNW 10 12 579 700 0 Blue 2
2 AM Mon 55 55 NNW 11 14 383 700 0 White 1
3 AM Mon 55 55 NNW 11 14 383 700 0 White 1
4 AM Mon 55 55 NNW 11 14 383 700 0 White 1
5 AM Mon 55 55 N 11 14 383 700 0 White 1
6 AM Mon 54 54 N 11 14 252 700 0 White 0
7 AM Mon 54 54 N 11 14 252 700 0 White 0
8 AM Mon 55 55 N 10 12 383 700 0 White 1
9 AM Mon 56 56 N 10 12 579 700 0 Blue 2
10 AM Mon 58 58 N 10 12 889 700 0 Blue 4
11 AM Mon 59 63 N 13 18 1662 1194 494 Blue 9
12 Noon Mon 61 67 N 13 18 2278 1808 1108 Blue 13
1 PM Mon 62 68 N 13 18 2430 1962 1262 Blue 14
2 PM Mon 63 69 NW 14 19 2528 2115 1415 Blue 15
3 PM Mon 64 69 NW 14 19 2528 2115 1415 Blue 15
4 PM Mon 64 67 NW 14 19 2278 1808 1108 Blue 13
5 PM Mon 63 64 NW 14 19 1816 1348 648 Blue 10
6 PM Mon 62 62 NW 14 19 1508 1040 340 Blue 8
7 PM Mon 60 60 NW 14 19 1199 732 32 Blue 6
8 PM Mon 59 59 NNW 9 11 1044 700 0 Blue 5
9 PM Mon 59 59 NNW 9 11 1044 700 0 Blue 5
10 PM Mon 58 58 NNW 9 11 889 700 0 Blue 4
11 PM Mon 58 58 N 8 9 889 700 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Tue 58 58 N 8 9 889 700 0 Blue 4
1 AM Tue 58 58 N 8 9 889 700 0 Blue 4
2 AM Tue 57 57 NNE 9 11 734 700 0 Blue 3
3 AM Tue 57 57 NNE 9 11 734 700 0 Blue 3
4 AM Tue 57 57 NNE 9 11 734 700 0 Blue 3
5 AM Tue 57 57 NE 8 9 734 700 0 Blue 3
6 AM Tue 56 56 NE 8 9 579 700 0 Blue 2
7 AM Tue 56 56 NE 8 9 579 700 0 Blue 2
8 AM Tue 57 57 NE 8 9 734 700 0 Blue 3
9 AM Tue 58 58 NE 8 9 889 700 0 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 59 59 NE 8 9 1044 700 0 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 61 64 S 8 9 1816 1348 648 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 62 66 S 8 9 2124 1655 955 Blue 12
1 PM Tue 63 68 S 8 9 2430 1962 1262 Blue 14
2 PM Tue 64 68 W 10 12 2430 1962 1262 Blue 14
3 PM Tue 65 69 W 10 12 2528 2115 1415 Blue 15
4 PM Tue 65 67 W 10 12 2278 1808 1108 Blue 13
5 PM Tue 64 65 W 9 11 1970 1501 801 Blue 11
6 PM Tue 63 63 W 9 11 1662 1194 494 Blue 9
7 PM Tue 60 60 W 9 11 1199 732 32 Blue 6
8 PM Tue 59 59 WNW 5 6 1044 700 0 Blue 5
9 PM Tue 59 59 WNW 5 6 1044 700 0 Blue 5
10 PM Tue 59 59 WNW 5 6 1044 700 0 Blue 5

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com