Detailed Predictions for: Cayucos
Launch Altitude (f): 700
LZ Altitude (f): 1
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

21 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Tue 53 53 NE 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 51 51 NE 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 51 51 NE 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 52 52 NE 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 56 56 NE 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 61 61 NE 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 67 68 N 8 0 700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 72 73 N 8 769 700 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Tue 75 77 N 8 1398 840 140 Blue 8
1 PM Tue 77 78 N 7 1802 913 213 Blue 9
2 PM Tue 77 78 N 7 1802 913 213 Blue 9
3 PM Tue 75 75 N 7 915 700 0 Blue 6
4 PM Tue 73 73 N 7 769 700 0 Blue 4
5 PM Tue 70 70 N 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 67 67 N 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 64 64 N 2 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 62 62 N 2 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 60 60 N 2 0 700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 60 60 NE 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 59 59 NE 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 59 59 NE 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 59 59 NE 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 58 58 NE 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 56 56 NE 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 54 54 NE 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 51 51 NE 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 50 50 NE 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 52 52 N 8 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 59 59 N 8 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 68 69 N 8 0 700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 75 77 N 8 1398 840 140 Blue 8
11 AM Wed 77 79 N 8 2200 986 286 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 75 78 N 8 1802 913 213 Blue 9
1 PM Wed 72 74 W 7 842 700 0 Blue 5
2 PM Wed 69 71 W 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 66 67 W 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 64 64 NW 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 61 61 NW 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 59 59 NW 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 58 58 NW 1 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 59 59 NW 1 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 59 59 NW 1 0 700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 60 60 SE 1 0 700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 59 59 SE 1 0 700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 57 57 SE 1 0 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 56 56 N 2 0 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 55 N 2 0 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 54 54 N 2 0 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 53 53 N 2 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 50 50 N 2 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 48 48 N 2 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 49 49 N 2 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 54 54 N 2 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 62 62 N 2 0 700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 69 70 NW 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 73 75 NW 10 915 700 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Thu 75 77 NW 10 1398 840 140 Blue 8
1 PM Thu 74 76 NW 10 988 768 68 Blue 7
2 PM Thu 72 73 NW 10 769 700 0 Blue 4
3 PM Thu 69 69 NW 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 67 67 NW 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 65 65 NW 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 63 63 NW 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 62 62 NW 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 61 61 NW 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 59 59 NW 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 57 57 NE 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 56 56 NE 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 54 54 NE 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 53 53 NE 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 52 52 NE 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 52 52 NE 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 51 51 NE 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 50 50 NE 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 50 50 NE 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 51 51 NE 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 55 55 NE 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 61 61 NE 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 66 67 W 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 70 72 W 6 696 700 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Fri 72 74 W 6 842 700 0 Blue 5
1 PM Fri 73 75 W 6 915 700 0 Blue 6
2 PM Fri 73 74 W 6 842 700 0 Blue 5
3 PM Fri 72 72 W 6 696 700 0 Blue 3
4 PM Fri 70 70 NW 5 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 68 68 NW 5 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 65 65 NW 5 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 63 63 NW 5 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 60 60 NW 5 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 57 57 NW 5 0 700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 55 55 SE 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 52 52 SE 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 50 50 SE 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 48 48 SE 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 47 47 SE 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 47 47 SE 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 48 48 E 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 50 50 E 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 53 53 E 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 57 57 E 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 61 61 E 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 64 64 E 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 67 68 SW 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 69 71 SW 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 69 71 SW 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 69 71 SW 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 68 69 SW 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 66 66 SW 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 65 65 SW 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 63 63 SW 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 61 61 SW 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 59 59 SW 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 57 57 SW 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 55 55 SW 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 54 54 SE 5 0 700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 53 53 SE 5 0 700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 53 53 SE 5 0 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 53 53 SE 5 0 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 54 54 SE 5 0 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 55 55 SE 5 0 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 56 56 NE 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 58 58 NE 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 60 60 NE 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 62 62 NE 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 64 64 NE 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 66 66 NE 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 67 68 SW 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 67 68 SW 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 67 68 SW 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 66 67 SW 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 65 66 SW 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 63 63 SW 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 62 62 SW 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 61 61 SW 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 59 59 SW 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 58 58 SW 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 57 57 SW 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 56 56 SW 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 55 55 NW 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 54 54 NW 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 53 53 NW 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 53 53 NW 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 53 53 NW 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 53 53 NW 3 0 700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com