Detailed Predictions for: Cayucos
Launch Altitude (f): 700
LZ Altitude (f): 1
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

15 JUN 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 54 54 W 2 253 700 0 White 0
6 AM Sat 53 53 W 2 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 55 55 W 2 449 700 0 White 1
8 AM Sat 59 59 NW 2 1324 1289 589 White 5
9 AM Sat 61 61 NW 2 1759 1759 1059 White 7
10 AM Sat 62 62 NW 2 1910 1823 1123 Blue 8
11 AM Sat 61 64 SW 9 1960 1882 1182 Blue 10
12 Noon Sat 61 65 SW 9 2007 1908 1208 Blue 11
1 PM Sat 64 68 SW 9 2466 2000 1300 Blue 14
2 PM Sat 64 68 SW 13 2466 2000 1300 Blue 14
3 PM Sat 64 67 SW 13 2378 1958 1258 Blue 13
4 PM Sat 64 66 SW 13 2148 1933 1233 Blue 12
5 PM Sat 63 64 W 9 1960 1882 1182 Blue 10
6 PM Sat 62 62 W 9 1910 1823 1123 Blue 8
7 PM Sat 61 61 W 9 1759 1759 1059 White 7
8 PM Sat 59 59 W 8 1324 1289 589 White 5
9 PM Sat 57 57 W 8 887 700 0 White 3
10 PM Sat 56 56 W 8 667 700 0 White 2
11 PM Sat 56 56 W 7 667 700 0 White 2
12 Midnight Sun 55 55 W 7 449 700 0 White 1
1 AM Sun 56 56 W 7 667 700 0 White 2
2 AM Sun 55 55 W 6 449 700 0 White 1
3 AM Sun 55 55 W 6 449 700 0 White 1
4 AM Sun 55 55 W 6 449 700 0 White 1
5 AM Sun 55 55 W 3 449 700 0 White 1
6 AM Sun 54 54 W 3 253 700 0 White 0
7 AM Sun 55 55 W 3 449 700 0 White 1
8 AM Sun 60 60 W 2 1541 1541 841 White 6
9 AM Sun 62 62 W 2 1910 1823 1123 Blue 8
10 AM Sun 62 62 W 2 1910 1823 1123 Blue 8
11 AM Sun 61 64 SW 9 1960 1882 1182 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 62 66 SW 9 2148 1933 1233 Blue 12
1 PM Sun 64 68 SW 9 2466 2000 1300 Blue 14
2 PM Sun 64 68 SW 10 2466 2000 1300 Blue 14
3 PM Sun 64 67 SW 10 2378 1958 1258 Blue 13
4 PM Sun 64 66 SW 10 2148 1933 1233 Blue 12
5 PM Sun 63 64 SW 12 1960 1882 1182 Blue 10
6 PM Sun 62 62 SW 12 1910 1823 1123 Blue 8
7 PM Sun 61 61 SW 12 1759 1759 1059 White 7
8 PM Sun 59 59 SW 12 1324 1289 589 White 5
9 PM Sun 57 57 SW 12 887 700 0 White 3
10 PM Sun 56 56 SW 12 667 700 0 White 2
11 PM Sun 56 56 SW 3 667 700 0 White 2
12 Midnight Mon 55 55 SW 3 449 700 0 White 1
1 AM Mon 56 56 SW 3 667 700 0 White 2
2 AM Mon 55 55 SW 3 449 700 0 White 1
3 AM Mon 55 55 SW 3 449 700 0 White 1
4 AM Mon 55 55 SW 3 449 700 0 White 1
5 AM Mon 55 55 SW 1 449 700 0 White 1
6 AM Mon 54 54 SW 1 253 700 0 White 0
7 AM Mon 56 56 SW 1 667 700 0 White 2
8 AM Mon 60 60 SW 1 1541 1541 841 White 6
9 AM Mon 62 62 SW 1 1910 1823 1123 Blue 8
10 AM Mon 63 63 SW 1 1935 1853 1153 Blue 9
11 AM Mon 62 68 SW 10 2466 2000 1300 Blue 14
12 Noon Mon 62 70 SW 10 2577 2362 1662 Blue 16
1 PM Mon 65 73 SW 10 2744 2573 1873 Blue 19
2 PM Mon 65 73 SW 10 2744 2573 1873 Blue 19
3 PM Mon 65 71 SW 10 2627 2461 1761 Blue 17
4 PM Mon 65 70 SW 10 2577 2362 1662 Blue 16
5 PM Mon 64 67 SW 8 2378 1958 1258 Blue 13
6 PM Mon 63 64 SW 8 1960 1882 1182 Blue 10
7 PM Mon 62 62 SW 8 1910 1823 1123 Blue 8
8 PM Mon 60 60 SW 8 1541 1541 841 White 6
9 PM Mon 59 59 SW 8 1324 1289 589 White 5
10 PM Mon 58 58 SW 8 1105 864 164 White 4
11 PM Mon 58 58 S 2 1105 864 164 White 4
12 Midnight Tue 57 57 S 2 887 700 0 White 3
1 AM Tue 58 58 S 2 1105 864 164 White 4
2 AM Tue 57 57 S 2 887 700 0 White 3
3 AM Tue 57 57 S 2 887 700 0 White 3
4 AM Tue 57 57 S 2 887 700 0 White 3
5 AM Tue 57 57 S 2 887 700 0 White 3
6 AM Tue 56 56 S 2 667 700 0 White 2
7 AM Tue 58 58 S 2 1105 864 164 White 4
8 AM Tue 62 62 S 2 1910 1823 1123 Blue 8
9 AM Tue 64 64 S 2 1960 1882 1182 Blue 10
10 AM Tue 65 65 S 2 2007 1908 1208 Blue 11
11 AM Tue 64 70 SW 9 2577 2362 1662 Blue 16
12 Noon Tue 64 72 SW 9 2678 2522 1822 Blue 18
1 PM Tue 67 75 SW 9 2897 2674 1974 Blue 21
2 PM Tue 67 75 SW 9 2897 2674 1974 Blue 21
3 PM Tue 67 73 SW 9 2744 2573 1873 Blue 19
4 PM Tue 67 72 SW 9 2678 2522 1822 Blue 18
5 PM Tue 66 69 SW 12 2526 2134 1434 Blue 15
6 PM Tue 65 66 SW 12 2148 1933 1233 Blue 12
7 PM Tue 64 64 SW 12 1960 1882 1182 Blue 10
8 PM Tue 62 62 SW 12 1910 1823 1123 Blue 8
9 PM Tue 60 60 SW 12 1541 1541 841 White 6
10 PM Tue 59 59 SW 12 1324 1289 589 White 5
11 PM Tue 59 59 SW 2 1324 1289 589 White 5
12 Midnight Wed 58 58 SW 2 1105 864 164 White 4
1 AM Wed 59 59 SW 2 1324 1289 589 White 5
2 AM Wed 58 58 SW 2 1105 864 164 White 4
3 AM Wed 58 58 SW 2 1105 864 164 White 4
4 AM Wed 58 58 SW 2 1105 864 164 White 4
5 AM Wed 58 58 SW 2 1105 864 164 White 4
6 AM Wed 57 57 SW 2 887 700 0 White 3
7 AM Wed 58 58 SW 2 1105 864 164 White 4
8 AM Wed 63 63 SW 2 1935 1853 1153 Blue 9
9 AM Wed 65 65 SW 2 2007 1908 1208 Blue 11
10 AM Wed 65 65 SW 2 2007 1908 1208 Blue 11
11 AM Wed 64 67 SW 12 2378 1958 1258 Blue 13
12 Noon Wed 65 69 SW 12 2526 2134 1434 Blue 15
1 PM Wed 67 71 SW 12 2627 2461 1761 Blue 17
2 PM Wed 67 71 SW 12 2627 2461 1761 Blue 17
3 PM Wed 67 70 SW 12 2577 2362 1662 Blue 16
4 PM Wed 67 69 SW 12 2526 2134 1434 Blue 15
5 PM Wed 66 67 SW 13 2378 1958 1258 Blue 13
6 PM Wed 65 65 SW 13 2007 1908 1208 Blue 11
7 PM Wed 64 64 SW 13 1960 1882 1182 Blue 10
8 PM Wed 61 61 SW 13 1759 1759 1059 White 7
9 PM Wed 59 59 SW 13 1324 1289 589 White 5
10 PM Wed 58 58 SW 13 1105 864 164 White 4
11 PM Wed 58 58 W 2 1105 864 164 White 4
12 Midnight Thu 57 57 W 2 887 700 0 White 3
1 AM Thu 58 58 W 2 1105 864 164 White 4
2 AM Thu 58 58 W 2 1105 864 164 White 4
3 AM Thu 58 58 W 2 1105 864 164 White 4
4 AM Thu 57 57 W 2 887 700 0 White 3
5 AM Thu 57 57 S 2 887 700 0 White 3
6 AM Thu 56 56 S 2 667 700 0 White 2
7 AM Thu 57 57 S 2 887 700 0 White 3
8 AM Thu 62 62 S 2 1910 1823 1123 Blue 8
9 AM Thu 64 64 S 2 1960 1882 1182 Blue 10
10 AM Thu 64 64 S 2 1960 1882 1182 Blue 10
11 AM Thu 63 66 SW 10 2148 1933 1233 Blue 12
12 Noon Thu 64 68 SW 10 2466 2000 1300 Blue 14
1 PM Thu 66 70 SW 10 2577 2362 1662 Blue 16
2 PM Thu 66 70 SW 10 2577 2362 1662 Blue 16
3 PM Thu 66 69 SW 10 2526 2134 1434 Blue 15
4 PM Thu 66 68 SW 10 2466 2000 1300 Blue 14
5 PM Thu 65 66 SW 9 2148 1933 1233 Blue 12
6 PM Thu 64 64 SW 9 1960 1882 1182 Blue 10
7 PM Thu 63 63 SW 9 1935 1853 1153 Blue 9
8 PM Thu 60 60 SW 9 1541 1541 841 White 6
9 PM Thu 58 58 SW 9 1105 864 164 White 4
10 PM Thu 57 57 SW 9 887 700 0 White 3
11 PM Thu 57 57 NW 2 887 700 0 White 3
12 Midnight Fri 56 56 NW 2 667 700 0 White 2
1 AM Fri 57 57 NW 2 887 700 0 White 3
2 AM Fri 57 57 NW 2 887 700 0 White 3
3 AM Fri 57 57 NW 2 887 700 0 White 3
4 AM Fri 56 56 NW 2 667 700 0 White 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com