Detailed Predictions for: Cayucos
Launch Altitude (f): 700
LZ Altitude (f): 1
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

19 JUN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 52 52 NW 5 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 51 51 NW 5 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 53 53 NW 5 368 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 60 60 NW 7 1486 1428 728 Blue 7
9 AM Tue 63 63 NW 7 1769 1485 785 Blue 10
10 AM Tue 65 65 NW 7 1874 1720 1020 Blue 12
11 AM Tue 65 71 NW 8 2210 2038 1338 Blue 18
12 Noon Tue 67 75 NW 8 2435 2262 1562 Blue 22
1 PM Tue 68 76 NW 8 2491 2318 1618 Blue 23
2 PM Tue 69 77 W 13 2547 2374 1674 Blue 24
3 PM Tue 68 74 W 13 2378 2206 1506 Blue 21
4 PM Tue 69 74 W 13 2378 2206 1506 Blue 21
5 PM Tue 68 71 W 14 2210 2038 1338 Blue 18
6 PM Tue 65 66 W 14 1930 1767 1067 Blue 13
7 PM Tue 63 63 W 14 1769 1485 785 Blue 10
8 PM Tue 59 59 NW 9 1467 1409 709 Blue 6
9 PM Tue 56 56 NW 9 1171 700 0 White 3
10 PM Tue 55 55 NW 9 952 700 0 White 2
11 PM Tue 54 54 NW 9 671 700 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Wed 53 53 NW 9 368 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 54 54 NW 9 671 700 0 Blue 1
2 AM Wed 53 53 NW 6 368 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 54 54 NW 6 671 700 0 Blue 1
4 AM Wed 53 53 NW 6 368 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 53 53 NW 7 368 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 52 52 NW 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 54 54 NW 7 671 700 0 Blue 1
8 AM Wed 62 62 NW 9 1723 1466 766 Blue 9
9 AM Wed 67 67 NW 9 1986 1815 1115 Blue 14
10 AM Wed 68 68 NW 9 2042 1871 1171 Blue 15
11 AM Wed 69 75 NW 12 2435 2262 1562 Blue 22
12 Noon Wed 71 79 NW 12 2621 2487 1787 Blue 26
1 PM Wed 72 80 NW 12 2657 2543 1843 Blue 27
2 PM Wed 73 81 NW 15 2693 2582 1882 Blue 28
3 PM Wed 72 78 NW 15 2585 2431 1731 Blue 25
4 PM Wed 73 78 NW 15 2585 2431 1731 Blue 25
5 PM Wed 72 75 NW 16 2435 2262 1562 Blue 22
6 PM Wed 68 69 NW 16 2098 1927 1227 Blue 16
7 PM Wed 65 65 NW 16 1874 1720 1020 Blue 12
8 PM Wed 60 60 NW 16 1486 1428 728 Blue 7
9 PM Wed 57 57 NW 16 1390 700 0 White 4
10 PM Wed 55 55 NW 16 952 700 0 White 2
11 PM Wed 53 53 NW 10 368 700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 52 52 NW 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 53 53 NW 10 368 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 53 53 NW 10 368 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 54 54 NW 10 671 700 0 Blue 1
4 AM Thu 52 52 NW 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 52 52 NW 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 51 51 NW 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 53 53 NW 10 368 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 62 62 N 9 1723 1466 766 Blue 9
9 AM Thu 66 66 N 9 1930 1767 1067 Blue 13
10 AM Thu 68 68 N 9 2042 1871 1171 Blue 15
11 AM Thu 68 75 NW 10 2435 2262 1562 Blue 22
12 Noon Thu 71 79 NW 10 2621 2487 1787 Blue 26
1 PM Thu 72 81 NW 10 2693 2582 1882 Blue 28
2 PM Thu 73 81 NW 14 2693 2582 1882 Blue 28
3 PM Thu 72 79 NW 14 2621 2487 1787 Blue 26
4 PM Thu 73 78 NW 14 2585 2431 1731 Blue 25
5 PM Thu 72 75 NW 14 2435 2262 1562 Blue 22
6 PM Thu 68 69 NW 14 2098 1927 1227 Blue 16
7 PM Thu 66 66 NW 14 1930 1767 1067 Blue 13
8 PM Thu 61 61 NW 14 1638 1447 747 Blue 8
9 PM Thu 57 57 NW 14 1390 700 0 White 4
10 PM Thu 56 56 NW 14 1171 700 0 White 3
11 PM Thu 54 54 N 5 671 700 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Fri 53 53 N 5 368 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 54 54 N 5 671 700 0 Blue 1
2 AM Fri 54 54 N 5 671 700 0 Blue 1
3 AM Fri 54 54 N 5 671 700 0 Blue 1
4 AM Fri 53 53 N 5 368 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 53 53 N 5 368 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 52 52 N 5 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 54 54 N 5 671 700 0 Blue 1
8 AM Fri 63 64 N 5 1818 1630 930 Blue 11
9 AM Fri 68 71 N 5 2210 2038 1338 Blue 18
10 AM Fri 70 75 N 5 2435 2262 1562 Blue 22
11 AM Fri 70 77 W 17 2547 2374 1674 Blue 24
12 Noon Fri 73 81 W 17 2693 2582 1882 Blue 28
1 PM Fri 74 83 W 17 3517 2654 1954 Blue 30
2 PM Fri 75 83 W 17 3517 2654 1954 Blue 30
3 PM Fri 74 81 W 17 2693 2582 1882 Blue 28
4 PM Fri 75 80 W 17 2657 2543 1843 Blue 27
5 PM Fri 74 77 W 15 2547 2374 1674 Blue 24
6 PM Fri 70 71 W 15 2210 2038 1338 Blue 18
7 PM Fri 67 67 W 15 1986 1815 1115 Blue 14
8 PM Fri 62 62 W 15 1723 1466 766 Blue 9
9 PM Fri 58 58 W 15 1448 1096 396 Blue 5
10 PM Fri 57 57 W 15 1390 700 0 White 4
11 PM Fri 55 55 N 0 952 700 0 White 2
12 Midnight Sat 53 53 N 0 368 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 54 54 N 0 671 700 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sat 54 54 N 0 671 700 0 Blue 1
3 AM Sat 55 55 N 0 952 700 0 White 2
4 AM Sat 53 53 N 0 368 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 53 53 N 2 368 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 52 52 N 2 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 54 54 N 2 671 700 0 Blue 1
8 AM Sat 63 63 N 2 1769 1485 785 Blue 10
9 AM Sat 67 67 N 2 1986 1815 1115 Blue 14
10 AM Sat 69 70 N 2 2154 1982 1282 Blue 17
11 AM Sat 69 75 W 14 2435 2262 1562 Blue 22
12 Noon Sat 72 80 W 14 2657 2543 1843 Blue 27
1 PM Sat 73 81 W 14 2693 2582 1882 Blue 28
2 PM Sat 74 82 W 14 2921 2618 1918 Blue 29
3 PM Sat 73 79 W 14 2621 2487 1787 Blue 26
4 PM Sat 74 79 W 14 2621 2487 1787 Blue 26
5 PM Sat 73 76 SW 12 2491 2318 1618 Blue 23
6 PM Sat 69 70 SW 12 2154 1982 1282 Blue 17
7 PM Sat 67 67 SW 12 1986 1815 1115 Blue 14
8 PM Sat 63 63 SW 12 1769 1485 785 Blue 10
9 PM Sat 59 59 SW 12 1467 1409 709 Blue 6
10 PM Sat 58 58 SW 12 1448 1096 396 Blue 5
11 PM Sat 56 56 SE 2 1171 700 0 White 3
12 Midnight Sun 55 55 SE 2 952 700 0 White 2
1 AM Sun 56 56 SE 2 1171 700 0 White 3
2 AM Sun 56 56 SE 2 1171 700 0 White 3
3 AM Sun 56 56 SE 2 1171 700 0 White 3
4 AM Sun 55 55 SE 2 952 700 0 White 2
5 AM Sun 55 55 SE 1 952 700 0 White 2
6 AM Sun 54 54 SE 1 671 700 0 Blue 1
7 AM Sun 56 56 SE 1 1171 700 0 White 3
8 AM Sun 61 61 SE 1 1638 1447 747 Blue 8
9 AM Sun 64 64 SE 1 1818 1630 930 Blue 11
10 AM Sun 66 67 SE 1 1986 1815 1115 Blue 14
11 AM Sun 66 72 SW 12 2266 2094 1394 Blue 19
12 Noon Sun 68 76 SW 12 2491 2318 1618 Blue 23
1 PM Sun 68 76 SW 12 2491 2318 1618 Blue 23
2 PM Sun 69 77 SW 12 2547 2374 1674 Blue 24
3 PM Sun 68 74 SW 12 2378 2206 1506 Blue 21
4 PM Sun 69 74 SW 12 2378 2206 1506 Blue 21
5 PM Sun 68 71 SW 10 2210 2038 1338 Blue 18
6 PM Sun 66 67 SW 10 1986 1815 1115 Blue 14
7 PM Sun 64 64 SW 10 1818 1630 930 Blue 11
8 PM Sun 60 60 SW 10 1486 1428 728 Blue 7
9 PM Sun 58 58 SW 10 1448 1096 396 Blue 5
10 PM Sun 57 57 SW 10 1390 700 0 White 4
11 PM Sun 56 56 S 1 1171 700 0 White 3
12 Midnight Mon 55 55 S 1 952 700 0 White 2
1 AM Mon 55 55 S 1 952 700 0 White 2
2 AM Mon 55 55 S 1 952 700 0 White 2
3 AM Mon 56 56 S 1 1171 700 0 White 3
4 AM Mon 55 55 S 1 952 700 0 White 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com