Detailed Predictions for: Cayucos
Launch Altitude (f): 700
LZ Altitude (f): 1
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

19 AUG 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 55 55 N 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 55 55 N 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 55 55 N 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 59 59 NW 3 768 700 0 White 2
9 AM Sun 62 62 NW 3 1427 843 143 White 5
10 AM Sun 65 65 NW 3 1498 1429 729 Blue 8
11 AM Sun 68 70 W 8 1604 1539 839 Blue 13
12 Noon Sun 68 71 W 8 1615 1561 861 Blue 14
1 PM Sun 68 71 W 8 1615 1561 861 Blue 14
2 PM Sun 69 72 W 12 1625 1582 882 Blue 15
3 PM Sun 69 72 W 12 1625 1582 882 Blue 15
4 PM Sun 69 71 W 12 1615 1561 861 Blue 14
5 PM Sun 67 68 SW 7 1562 1497 797 Blue 11
6 PM Sun 66 66 SW 7 1519 1452 752 Blue 9
7 PM Sun 64 64 SW 7 1475 1407 707 Blue 7
8 PM Sun 60 60 SW 8 988 700 0 White 3
9 PM Sun 59 59 SW 8 768 700 0 White 2
10 PM Sun 58 58 SW 8 548 700 0 White 1
11 PM Sun 57 57 S 2 0 700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 57 57 S 2 0 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 56 56 S 2 0 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 56 56 S 1 0 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 56 56 S 1 0 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 55 55 S 1 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 54 54 S 1 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 54 54 S 1 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 54 54 S 1 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 58 58 S 2 548 700 0 White 1
9 AM Mon 61 61 S 2 1207 700 0 White 4
10 AM Mon 64 64 S 2 1475 1407 707 Blue 7
11 AM Mon 66 68 SW 12 1562 1497 797 Blue 11
12 Noon Mon 66 69 SW 12 1583 1518 818 Blue 12
1 PM Mon 66 69 SW 12 1583 1518 818 Blue 12
2 PM Mon 67 70 SW 10 1604 1539 839 Blue 13
3 PM Mon 67 70 SW 10 1604 1539 839 Blue 13
4 PM Mon 67 69 SW 10 1583 1518 818 Blue 12
5 PM Mon 65 66 SW 9 1519 1452 752 Blue 9
6 PM Mon 64 64 SW 9 1475 1407 707 Blue 7
7 PM Mon 63 63 SW 9 1453 1119 419 Blue 6
8 PM Mon 58 58 SW 9 548 700 0 White 1
9 PM Mon 57 57 SW 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 57 57 SW 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 56 56 S 1 0 700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 56 56 S 1 0 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 55 55 S 1 0 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 54 54 S 1 0 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 54 54 S 1 0 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 54 54 S 1 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 53 53 E 1 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 53 53 E 1 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 53 53 E 1 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 57 57 E 1 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 60 60 E 1 988 700 0 White 3
10 AM Tue 63 63 E 1 1453 1119 419 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 66 71 W 10 1615 1561 861 Blue 14
12 Noon Tue 66 72 W 10 1625 1582 882 Blue 15
1 PM Tue 66 72 W 10 1625 1582 882 Blue 15
2 PM Tue 67 73 W 10 1635 1603 903 Blue 16
3 PM Tue 67 72 W 10 1625 1582 882 Blue 15
4 PM Tue 67 71 W 10 1615 1561 861 Blue 14
5 PM Tue 65 67 W 8 1540 1475 775 Blue 10
6 PM Tue 64 65 W 8 1498 1429 729 Blue 8
7 PM Tue 63 63 W 8 1453 1119 419 Blue 6
8 PM Tue 59 59 W 8 768 700 0 White 2
9 PM Tue 58 58 W 8 548 700 0 White 1
10 PM Tue 58 58 W 8 548 700 0 White 1
11 PM Tue 57 57 SE 0 0 700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 57 57 SE 0 0 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 56 56 SE 0 0 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 55 55 SE 0 0 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 55 55 SE 0 0 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 55 55 SE 0 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 54 54 NW 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 54 54 NW 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 54 54 NW 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 59 59 NW 3 768 700 0 White 2
9 AM Wed 62 62 NW 3 1427 843 143 White 5
10 AM Wed 65 65 NW 3 1498 1429 729 Blue 8
11 AM Wed 68 72 W 15 1625 1582 882 Blue 15
12 Noon Wed 68 74 W 15 1646 1614 914 Blue 17
1 PM Wed 68 74 W 15 1646 1614 914 Blue 17
2 PM Wed 69 75 W 15 1656 1625 925 Blue 18
3 PM Wed 69 74 W 15 1646 1614 914 Blue 17
4 PM Wed 69 73 W 15 1635 1603 903 Blue 16
5 PM Wed 67 69 W 14 1583 1518 818 Blue 12
6 PM Wed 66 67 W 14 1540 1475 775 Blue 10
7 PM Wed 64 64 W 14 1475 1407 707 Blue 7
8 PM Wed 60 60 W 14 988 700 0 White 3
9 PM Wed 59 59 W 14 768 700 0 White 2
10 PM Wed 58 58 W 14 548 700 0 White 1
11 PM Wed 57 57 NW 1 0 700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 57 57 NW 1 0 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 56 56 NW 1 0 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 56 56 NW 1 0 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 56 56 NW 1 0 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 55 55 NW 1 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 54 54 NW 2 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 54 54 NW 2 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 54 54 NW 2 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 59 59 NW 2 768 700 0 White 2
9 AM Thu 62 62 NW 2 1427 843 143 White 5
10 AM Thu 65 65 NW 2 1498 1429 729 Blue 8
11 AM Thu 68 73 W 7 1635 1603 903 Blue 16
12 Noon Thu 68 74 W 7 1646 1614 914 Blue 17
1 PM Thu 68 75 W 7 1656 1625 925 Blue 18
2 PM Thu 69 76 W 7 1667 1635 935 Blue 19
3 PM Thu 69 75 W 7 1656 1625 925 Blue 18
4 PM Thu 69 73 W 7 1635 1603 903 Blue 16
5 PM Thu 67 69 W 6 1583 1518 818 Blue 12
6 PM Thu 66 67 W 6 1540 1475 775 Blue 10
7 PM Thu 64 64 W 6 1475 1407 707 Blue 7
8 PM Thu 60 60 W 6 988 700 0 White 3
9 PM Thu 59 59 W 6 768 700 0 White 2
10 PM Thu 58 58 W 6 548 700 0 White 1
11 PM Thu 57 57 NW 2 0 700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 57 57 NW 2 0 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 56 56 NW 2 0 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 56 56 NW 2 0 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 56 56 NW 2 0 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 55 55 NW 2 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 54 54 NW 2 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 54 54 NW 2 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 54 54 NW 2 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 59 59 NW 2 768 700 0 White 2
9 AM Fri 62 62 NW 2 1427 843 143 White 5
10 AM Fri 65 65 NW 2 1498 1429 729 Blue 8
11 AM Fri 68 73 W 8 1635 1603 903 Blue 16
12 Noon Fri 68 74 W 8 1646 1614 914 Blue 17
1 PM Fri 68 75 W 8 1656 1625 925 Blue 18
2 PM Fri 69 76 W 8 1667 1635 935 Blue 19
3 PM Fri 69 75 W 8 1656 1625 925 Blue 18
4 PM Fri 69 73 W 8 1635 1603 903 Blue 16
5 PM Fri 67 69 W 7 1583 1518 818 Blue 12
6 PM Fri 66 67 W 7 1540 1475 775 Blue 10
7 PM Fri 65 65 W 7 1498 1429 729 Blue 8
8 PM Fri 60 60 W 7 988 700 0 White 3
9 PM Fri 59 59 W 7 768 700 0 White 2
10 PM Fri 59 59 W 7 768 700 0 White 2
11 PM Fri 58 58 NW 3 548 700 0 White 1
12 Midnight Sat 58 58 NW 3 548 700 0 White 1
1 AM Sat 57 57 NW 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 56 56 NW 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 56 56 NW 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 56 56 NW 3 0 700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com