Detailed Predictions for: Cayucos
Launch Altitude (f): 700
LZ Altitude (f): 1
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

16 FEB 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sat 44 44 E 5 389 700 0 Blue 2
5 AM Sat 44 44 E 5 389 700 0 Blue 2
6 AM Sat 43 43 E 5 348 700 0 Blue 1
7 AM Sat 43 43 E 5 348 700 0 Blue 1
8 AM Sat 44 44 E 5 389 700 0 Blue 2
9 AM Sat 48 48 E 5 576 700 0 Blue 6
10 AM Sat 51 51 NW 12 1619 700 0 Blue 8
11 AM Sat 52 53 NW 12 3117 879 179 Blue 10
12 Noon Sat 53 54 NW 12 3363 1588 888 White 11
1 PM Sat 54 55 NW 12 3574 2259 1559 White 12
2 PM Sat 54 55 NW 12 3574 2259 1559 White 12
3 PM Sat 54 54 NW 12 3363 1588 888 White 11
4 PM Sat 53 53 NW 12 3117 879 179 Blue 10
5 PM Sat 52 52 NW 12 2305 700 0 Blue 9
6 PM Sat 50 50 NW 12 895 700 0 Blue 8
7 PM Sat 49 49 NW 12 668 700 0 Blue 7
8 PM Sat 48 48 NW 12 576 700 0 Blue 6
9 PM Sat 48 48 NW 12 576 700 0 Blue 6
10 PM Sat 47 47 W 5 510 700 0 Blue 5
11 PM Sat 47 47 W 5 510 700 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sun 47 47 W 5 510 700 0 Blue 5
1 AM Sun 47 47 W 3 510 700 0 Blue 5
2 AM Sun 46 46 W 3 469 700 0 Blue 4
3 AM Sun 46 46 W 3 469 700 0 Blue 4
4 AM Sun 45 45 SW 7 429 700 0 Blue 3
5 AM Sun 46 46 SW 7 469 700 0 Blue 4
6 AM Sun 45 45 SW 7 429 700 0 Blue 3
7 AM Sun 45 45 SW 7 429 700 0 Blue 3
8 AM Sun 46 46 SW 7 469 700 0 Blue 4
9 AM Sun 48 48 SW 7 576 700 0 Blue 6
10 AM Sun 50 50 NW 17 895 700 0 Blue 8
11 AM Sun 51 51 NW 17 1619 700 0 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 51 52 NW 17 2305 700 0 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 52 52 NW 17 2305 700 0 Blue 9
2 PM Sun 51 51 NW 17 1619 700 0 Blue 8
3 PM Sun 52 52 NW 17 2305 700 0 Blue 9
4 PM Sun 50 50 NW 14 895 700 0 Blue 8
5 PM Sun 49 49 NW 14 668 700 0 Blue 7
6 PM Sun 47 47 NW 14 510 700 0 Blue 5
7 PM Sun 45 45 NW 14 429 700 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sun 44 44 NW 14 389 700 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sun 43 43 NW 14 348 700 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 42 42 NW 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 42 42 NW 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 41 41 NW 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 41 41 NW 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 40 40 NW 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 40 40 NW 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 39 39 NW 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 40 40 NW 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 39 39 NW 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 39 39 NW 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 40 40 NW 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 46 47 NW 6 510 700 0 Blue 5
10 AM Mon 50 52 N 9 2305 700 0 Blue 9
11 AM Mon 52 55 N 9 3574 2259 1559 White 12
12 Noon Mon 53 56 N 9 3785 3086 2386 White 13
1 PM Mon 55 58 N 9 4211 4211 3511 White 15
2 PM Mon 54 56 N 9 3785 3086 2386 White 13
3 PM Mon 54 55 N 9 3574 2259 1559 White 12
4 PM Mon 53 53 NW 16 3117 879 179 Blue 10
5 PM Mon 51 51 NW 16 1619 700 0 Blue 8
6 PM Mon 48 48 NW 16 576 700 0 Blue 6
7 PM Mon 46 46 NW 16 469 700 0 Blue 4
8 PM Mon 44 44 NW 16 389 700 0 Blue 2
9 PM Mon 43 43 NW 16 348 700 0 Blue 1
10 PM Mon 42 42 N 8 0 700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 42 42 N 8 0 700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 41 41 N 8 0 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 41 41 N 8 0 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 39 39 N 8 0 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 40 40 N 8 0 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 39 39 N 8 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 39 39 N 8 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 38 38 N 8 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 38 38 N 8 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 39 39 N 8 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 45 46 N 8 469 700 0 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 50 52 NW 9 2305 700 0 Blue 9
11 AM Tue 52 54 NW 9 3363 1588 888 White 11
12 Noon Tue 53 56 NW 9 3785 3086 2386 White 13
1 PM Tue 55 58 NW 9 4211 4211 3511 White 15
2 PM Tue 54 56 NW 9 3785 3086 2386 White 13
3 PM Tue 54 55 NW 9 3574 2259 1559 White 12
4 PM Tue 53 53 NW 9 3117 879 179 Blue 10
5 PM Tue 51 51 NW 9 1619 700 0 Blue 8
6 PM Tue 49 49 NW 9 668 700 0 Blue 7
7 PM Tue 46 46 NW 9 469 700 0 Blue 4
8 PM Tue 45 45 NW 9 429 700 0 Blue 3
9 PM Tue 44 44 NW 9 389 700 0 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 43 43 NE 6 348 700 0 Blue 1
11 PM Tue 42 42 NE 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 41 41 NE 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 41 41 NE 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 40 40 NE 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 40 40 NE 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 39 39 NE 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 40 40 NE 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 38 38 NE 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 39 39 NE 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 40 40 NE 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 46 46 NE 6 469 700 0 Blue 4
10 AM Wed 51 52 W 13 2305 700 0 Blue 9
11 AM Wed 53 54 W 13 3363 1588 888 White 11
12 Noon Wed 54 55 W 13 3574 2259 1559 White 12
1 PM Wed 56 57 W 13 3997 3997 3297 White 14
2 PM Wed 55 56 W 13 3785 3086 2386 White 13
3 PM Wed 56 56 W 13 3785 3086 2386 White 13
4 PM Wed 55 55 W 14 3574 2259 1559 White 12
5 PM Wed 53 53 W 14 3117 879 179 Blue 10
6 PM Wed 51 51 W 14 1619 700 0 Blue 8
7 PM Wed 49 49 W 14 668 700 0 Blue 7
8 PM Wed 48 48 W 14 576 700 0 Blue 6
9 PM Wed 47 47 W 14 510 700 0 Blue 5
10 PM Wed 46 46 NW 12 469 700 0 Blue 4
11 PM Wed 46 46 NW 12 469 700 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Thu 45 45 NW 12 429 700 0 Blue 3
1 AM Thu 45 45 NW 12 429 700 0 Blue 3
2 AM Thu 44 44 NW 12 389 700 0 Blue 2
3 AM Thu 44 44 NW 12 389 700 0 Blue 2
4 AM Thu 44 44 NW 13 389 700 0 Blue 2
5 AM Thu 44 44 NW 13 389 700 0 Blue 2
6 AM Thu 43 43 NW 13 348 700 0 Blue 1
7 AM Thu 43 43 NW 13 348 700 0 Blue 1
8 AM Thu 44 44 NW 13 389 700 0 Blue 2
9 AM Thu 47 47 NW 13 510 700 0 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 50 51 NW 15 1619 700 0 Blue 8
11 AM Thu 51 52 NW 15 2305 700 0 Blue 9
12 Noon Thu 52 54 NW 15 3363 1588 888 White 11
1 PM Thu 53 55 NW 15 3574 2259 1559 White 12
2 PM Thu 53 54 NW 15 3363 1588 888 White 11
3 PM Thu 53 54 NW 15 3363 1588 888 White 11
4 PM Thu 52 52 NW 14 2305 700 0 Blue 9
5 PM Thu 50 50 NW 14 895 700 0 Blue 8
6 PM Thu 49 49 NW 14 668 700 0 Blue 7
7 PM Thu 47 47 NW 14 510 700 0 Blue 5
8 PM Thu 46 46 NW 14 469 700 0 Blue 4
9 PM Thu 46 46 NW 14 469 700 0 Blue 4
10 PM Thu 45 45 NW 8 429 700 0 Blue 3
11 PM Thu 44 44 NW 8 389 700 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Fri 44 44 NW 8 389 700 0 Blue 2
1 AM Fri 44 44 NW 8 389 700 0 Blue 2
2 AM Fri 43 43 NW 8 348 700 0 Blue 1
3 AM Fri 43 43 NW 8 348 700 0 Blue 1

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com