Detailed Predictions for: Cayucos
Launch Altitude (f): 700
LZ Altitude (f): 1
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 53 53 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 52 52 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 52 52 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 55 55 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 59 59 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 60 60 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 60 63 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 60 64 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 61 65 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 61 65 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 61 64 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 61 63 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 60 61 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 59 59 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 57 57 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 55 55 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 54 54 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 54 54 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 53 53 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 53 53 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 53 53 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 52 52 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 52 52 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 52 52 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 51 51 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 51 51 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 51 51 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 54 54 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 57 57 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 58 58 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 58 61 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 58 62 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 59 63 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 59 63 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 59 62 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 59 61 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 58 59 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 57 57 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 56 56 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 54 54 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 53 53 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 52 52 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 52 52 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 52 52 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 52 52 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 51 51 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 51 51 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 51 51 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 50 50 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 50 50 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 51 51 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 56 56 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 62 62 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 65 65 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 64 67 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 65 69 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 66 70 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 67 71 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 67 70 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 66 68 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 65 66 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 64 64 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 61 61 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 58 58 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 57 57 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 55 55 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 55 55 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 54 54 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 54 54 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 53 53 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 53 53 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 53 53 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 52 52 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 51 51 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 51 51 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 55 55 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 60 60 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 61 61 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 61 65 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 61 65 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 62 67 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 63 67 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 63 67 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 63 65 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 62 63 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 61 61 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 59 59 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 56 56 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 55 55 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 54 54 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 54 54 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 53 53 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 53 53 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 53 53 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 52 52 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 52 52 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 51 51 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 51 51 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 51 51 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 54 54 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 58 58 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 59 59 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 59 63 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 59 64 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 60 65 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 60 64 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 60 64 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 60 62 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 59 60 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 58 58 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 57 57 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 55 55 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 54 54 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 53 53 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 53 53 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 53 53 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 53 53 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 52 52 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 52 52 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 52 52 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 51 51 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 51 51 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 51 51 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 54 54 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 58 59 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 59 62 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 59 64 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 59 65 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 60 66 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 60 66 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 60 65 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 60 63 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 59 61 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 58 58 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 56 56 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 54 54 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 53 53 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 52 52 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 51 51 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 51 51 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 51 51 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 50 50 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 50 50 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 50 50 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com