Detailed Predictions for: Cayucos
Launch Altitude (f): 700
LZ Altitude (f): 1
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

24 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 58 58 SW 2 379 700 0 Blue 2
6 AM Sat 57 57 SW 2 356 700 0 Blue 1
7 AM Sat 57 57 SW 2 356 700 0 Blue 1
8 AM Sat 60 60 SW 2 457 700 0 Blue 4
9 AM Sat 62 64 SW 2 1018 700 0 Blue 8
10 AM Sat 63 66 SW 2 1463 790 90 Blue 10
11 AM Sat 64 69 SW 6 1872 1454 754 Blue 13
12 Noon Sat 66 72 SW 6 2019 1868 1168 Blue 16
1 PM Sat 67 74 SW 6 2111 1970 1270 Blue 18
2 PM Sat 67 74 SW 12 2111 1970 1270 Blue 18
3 PM Sat 67 72 SW 12 2019 1868 1168 Blue 16
4 PM Sat 67 71 SW 12 1973 1783 1083 Blue 15
5 PM Sat 66 68 SW 12 1787 1234 534 Blue 12
6 PM Sat 65 66 SW 12 1463 790 90 Blue 10
7 PM Sat 63 63 SW 12 794 700 0 Blue 7
8 PM Sat 60 60 SW 12 457 700 0 Blue 4
9 PM Sat 60 60 SW 12 457 700 0 Blue 4
10 PM Sat 59 59 SW 12 402 700 0 Blue 3
11 PM Sat 59 59 NW 6 402 700 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sun 58 58 NW 6 379 700 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sun 58 58 NW 6 379 700 0 Blue 2
2 AM Sun 57 57 N 2 356 700 0 Blue 1
3 AM Sun 56 56 N 2 333 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 56 56 N 2 333 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 56 56 N 5 333 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 56 56 N 5 333 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 57 57 N 5 356 700 0 Blue 1
8 AM Sun 60 60 NW 3 457 700 0 Blue 4
9 AM Sun 63 63 NW 3 794 700 0 Blue 7
10 AM Sun 65 65 NW 3 1241 700 0 Blue 9
11 AM Sun 66 71 W 8 1973 1783 1083 Blue 15
12 Noon Sun 68 74 W 8 2111 1970 1270 Blue 18
1 PM Sun 69 75 W 8 2157 2016 1316 Blue 19
2 PM Sun 70 76 W 12 2204 2062 1362 Blue 20
3 PM Sun 70 75 W 12 2157 2016 1316 Blue 19
4 PM Sun 70 74 W 12 2111 1970 1270 Blue 18
5 PM Sun 69 71 W 10 1973 1783 1083 Blue 15
6 PM Sun 68 69 W 10 1872 1454 754 Blue 13
7 PM Sun 66 66 W 10 1463 790 90 Blue 10
8 PM Sun 63 63 NW 7 794 700 0 Blue 7
9 PM Sun 62 62 NW 7 642 700 0 Blue 6
10 PM Sun 61 61 NW 7 545 700 0 Blue 5
11 PM Sun 61 61 NW 7 545 700 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Mon 60 60 NW 7 457 700 0 Blue 4
1 AM Mon 60 60 NW 7 457 700 0 Blue 4
2 AM Mon 59 59 NW 7 402 700 0 Blue 3
3 AM Mon 58 58 NW 7 379 700 0 Blue 2
4 AM Mon 58 58 NW 7 379 700 0 Blue 2
5 AM Mon 58 58 NW 7 379 700 0 Blue 2
6 AM Mon 58 58 NW 7 379 700 0 Blue 2
7 AM Mon 59 59 NW 7 402 700 0 Blue 3
8 AM Mon 62 62 NW 7 642 700 0 Blue 6
9 AM Mon 65 65 NW 7 1241 700 0 Blue 9
10 AM Mon 67 67 NW 7 1684 1012 312 Blue 11
11 AM Mon 68 71 W 10 1973 1783 1083 Blue 15
12 Noon Mon 70 74 W 10 2111 1970 1270 Blue 18
1 PM Mon 71 75 W 10 2157 2016 1316 Blue 19
2 PM Mon 72 76 W 10 2204 2062 1362 Blue 20
3 PM Mon 72 76 W 10 2204 2062 1362 Blue 20
4 PM Mon 71 73 W 10 2065 1924 1224 Blue 17
5 PM Mon 70 71 W 10 1973 1783 1083 Blue 15
6 PM Mon 69 69 W 10 1872 1454 754 Blue 13
7 PM Mon 67 67 W 10 1684 1012 312 Blue 11
8 PM Mon 63 63 W 10 794 700 0 Blue 7
9 PM Mon 62 62 W 10 642 700 0 Blue 6
10 PM Mon 61 61 W 10 545 700 0 Blue 5
11 PM Mon 61 61 NE 2 545 700 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Tue 60 60 NE 2 457 700 0 Blue 4
1 AM Tue 60 60 NE 2 457 700 0 Blue 4
2 AM Tue 58 58 NE 2 379 700 0 Blue 2
3 AM Tue 57 57 NE 2 356 700 0 Blue 1
4 AM Tue 57 57 NE 2 356 700 0 Blue 1
5 AM Tue 57 57 NE 2 356 700 0 Blue 1
6 AM Tue 57 57 NE 2 356 700 0 Blue 1
7 AM Tue 58 58 NE 2 379 700 0 Blue 2
8 AM Tue 61 61 NE 2 545 700 0 Blue 5
9 AM Tue 64 64 NE 2 1018 700 0 Blue 8
10 AM Tue 66 66 NE 2 1463 790 90 Blue 10
11 AM Tue 67 72 W 12 2019 1868 1168 Blue 16
12 Noon Tue 69 76 W 12 2204 2062 1362 Blue 20
1 PM Tue 70 78 W 12 2296 2155 1455 Blue 22
2 PM Tue 71 78 W 12 2296 2155 1455 Blue 22
3 PM Tue 71 77 W 12 2250 2108 1408 Blue 21
4 PM Tue 71 75 W 12 2157 2016 1316 Blue 19
5 PM Tue 69 71 W 12 1973 1783 1083 Blue 15
6 PM Tue 68 69 W 12 1872 1454 754 Blue 13
7 PM Tue 66 66 W 12 1463 790 90 Blue 10
8 PM Tue 62 62 W 12 642 700 0 Blue 6
9 PM Tue 61 61 W 12 545 700 0 Blue 5
10 PM Tue 61 61 W 12 545 700 0 Blue 5
11 PM Tue 60 60 NW 3 457 700 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Wed 60 60 NW 3 457 700 0 Blue 4
1 AM Wed 59 59 NW 3 402 700 0 Blue 3
2 AM Wed 58 58 NW 3 379 700 0 Blue 2
3 AM Wed 57 57 NW 3 356 700 0 Blue 1
4 AM Wed 57 57 NW 3 356 700 0 Blue 1
5 AM Wed 57 57 NW 3 356 700 0 Blue 1
6 AM Wed 57 57 NW 3 356 700 0 Blue 1
7 AM Wed 58 58 NW 3 379 700 0 Blue 2
8 AM Wed 61 61 NW 3 545 700 0 Blue 5
9 AM Wed 64 64 NW 3 1018 700 0 Blue 8
10 AM Wed 65 65 NW 3 1241 700 0 Blue 9
11 AM Wed 66 71 W 15 1973 1783 1083 Blue 15
12 Noon Wed 68 75 W 15 2157 2016 1316 Blue 19
1 PM Wed 69 77 W 15 2250 2108 1408 Blue 21
2 PM Wed 70 77 W 15 2250 2108 1408 Blue 21
3 PM Wed 70 76 W 15 2204 2062 1362 Blue 20
4 PM Wed 70 74 W 15 2111 1970 1270 Blue 18
5 PM Wed 69 71 W 15 1973 1783 1083 Blue 15
6 PM Wed 68 69 W 15 1872 1454 754 Blue 13
7 PM Wed 66 66 W 15 1463 790 90 Blue 10
8 PM Wed 63 63 W 15 794 700 0 Blue 7
9 PM Wed 62 62 W 15 642 700 0 Blue 6
10 PM Wed 61 61 W 15 545 700 0 Blue 5
11 PM Wed 61 61 NW 3 545 700 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Thu 60 60 NW 3 457 700 0 Blue 4
1 AM Thu 60 60 NW 3 457 700 0 Blue 4
2 AM Thu 59 59 NW 3 402 700 0 Blue 3
3 AM Thu 58 58 NW 3 379 700 0 Blue 2
4 AM Thu 58 58 NW 3 379 700 0 Blue 2
5 AM Thu 58 58 NW 3 379 700 0 Blue 2
6 AM Thu 58 58 NW 3 379 700 0 Blue 2
7 AM Thu 59 59 NW 3 402 700 0 Blue 3
8 AM Thu 61 61 NW 3 545 700 0 Blue 5
9 AM Thu 64 64 NW 3 1018 700 0 Blue 8
10 AM Thu 66 66 NW 3 1463 790 90 Blue 10
11 AM Thu 67 72 W 13 2019 1868 1168 Blue 16
12 Noon Thu 68 75 W 13 2157 2016 1316 Blue 19
1 PM Thu 69 76 W 13 2204 2062 1362 Blue 20
2 PM Thu 70 77 W 13 2250 2108 1408 Blue 21
3 PM Thu 70 76 W 13 2204 2062 1362 Blue 20
4 PM Thu 70 74 W 13 2111 1970 1270 Blue 18
5 PM Thu 69 71 W 13 1973 1783 1083 Blue 15
6 PM Thu 68 69 W 13 1872 1454 754 Blue 13
7 PM Thu 66 66 W 13 1463 790 90 Blue 10
8 PM Thu 63 63 W 13 794 700 0 Blue 7
9 PM Thu 62 62 W 13 642 700 0 Blue 6
10 PM Thu 61 61 W 13 545 700 0 Blue 5
11 PM Thu 61 61 N 5 545 700 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Fri 60 60 N 5 457 700 0 Blue 4
1 AM Fri 60 60 N 5 457 700 0 Blue 4
2 AM Fri 59 59 N 5 402 700 0 Blue 3
3 AM Fri 58 58 N 5 379 700 0 Blue 2
4 AM Fri 58 58 N 5 379 700 0 Blue 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com