Detailed Predictions for: Cayucos
Launch Altitude (f): 700
LZ Altitude (f): 1
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

16 OCT 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 51 51 N 8 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 50 50 N 8 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 50 50 N 8 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 52 52 N 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 60 60 N 9 393 700 0 Blue 5
10 AM Tue 68 70 N 9 963 866 166 Blue 15
11 AM Tue 70 73 NW 8 1045 962 262 Blue 18
12 Noon Tue 71 75 NW 8 1179 1017 317 Blue 20
1 PM Tue 72 76 NW 8 1461 1045 345 Blue 21
2 PM Tue 70 74 W 9 1073 990 290 Blue 19
3 PM Tue 71 74 W 9 1073 990 290 Blue 19
4 PM Tue 69 71 W 9 990 907 207 Blue 16
5 PM Tue 69 69 NW 7 935 776 76 Blue 14
6 PM Tue 64 64 NW 7 597 700 0 Blue 9
7 PM Tue 60 60 NW 7 393 700 0 Blue 5
8 PM Tue 58 58 N 5 368 700 0 Blue 3
9 PM Tue 57 57 N 5 356 700 0 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 56 56 N 5 344 700 0 Blue 1
11 PM Tue 55 55 NE 3 332 700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 55 55 NE 3 332 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 55 55 NE 3 332 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 54 54 NE 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 53 53 NE 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 52 52 NE 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 51 51 E 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 50 50 E 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 50 50 E 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 51 51 S 2 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 59 59 S 2 381 700 0 Blue 4
10 AM Wed 66 68 S 2 908 700 0 Blue 13
11 AM Wed 68 71 W 8 990 907 207 Blue 16
12 Noon Wed 69 73 W 8 1045 962 262 Blue 18
1 PM Wed 70 74 W 8 1073 990 290 Blue 19
2 PM Wed 68 72 W 9 1018 935 235 Blue 17
3 PM Wed 69 72 W 9 1018 935 235 Blue 17
4 PM Wed 67 68 W 9 908 700 0 Blue 13
5 PM Wed 67 67 W 3 868 700 0 Blue 12
6 PM Wed 63 63 W 3 506 700 0 Blue 8
7 PM Wed 59 59 W 3 381 700 0 Blue 4
8 PM Wed 57 57 W 3 356 700 0 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 57 57 W 3 356 700 0 Blue 2
10 PM Wed 56 56 W 3 344 700 0 Blue 1
11 PM Wed 55 55 NE 2 332 700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 54 54 NE 2 0 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 54 54 NE 2 0 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 53 53 NE 2 0 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 52 52 NE 2 0 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 52 52 NE 2 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 51 51 NE 5 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 50 50 NE 5 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 50 50 NE 5 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 52 52 NE 5 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 61 61 NE 5 405 700 0 Blue 6
10 AM Thu 69 71 NE 5 990 907 207 Blue 16
11 AM Thu 71 74 W 1 1073 990 290 Blue 19
12 Noon Thu 72 76 W 1 1461 1045 345 Blue 21
1 PM Thu 73 77 W 1 1853 1072 372 Blue 22
2 PM Thu 71 75 W 1 1179 1017 317 Blue 20
3 PM Thu 72 75 W 1 1179 1017 317 Blue 20
4 PM Thu 70 72 W 1 1018 935 235 Blue 17
5 PM Thu 70 70 W 5 963 866 166 Blue 15
6 PM Thu 65 65 W 5 687 700 0 Blue 10
7 PM Thu 61 61 W 5 405 700 0 Blue 6
8 PM Thu 58 58 W 5 368 700 0 Blue 3
9 PM Thu 57 57 W 5 356 700 0 Blue 2
10 PM Thu 57 57 W 5 356 700 0 Blue 2
11 PM Thu 56 56 NE 5 344 700 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Fri 55 55 NE 5 332 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 55 55 NE 5 332 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 54 54 NE 5 0 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 53 53 NE 5 0 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 52 52 NE 5 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 51 51 NE 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 50 50 NE 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 50 50 NE 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 52 52 NE 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 61 61 NE 6 405 700 0 Blue 6
10 AM Fri 70 72 NE 6 1018 935 235 Blue 17
11 AM Fri 73 76 NE 7 1461 1045 345 Blue 21
12 Noon Fri 74 78 NE 7 2455 1174 474 Blue 23
1 PM Fri 75 79 NE 7 2780 1450 750 Blue 24
2 PM Fri 73 77 NE 7 1853 1072 372 Blue 22
3 PM Fri 74 77 NE 7 1853 1072 372 Blue 22
4 PM Fri 72 74 NE 7 1073 990 290 Blue 19
5 PM Fri 72 72 N 3 1018 935 235 Blue 17
6 PM Fri 67 67 N 3 868 700 0 Blue 12
7 PM Fri 63 63 N 3 506 700 0 Blue 8
8 PM Fri 60 60 N 3 393 700 0 Blue 5
9 PM Fri 59 59 N 3 381 700 0 Blue 4
10 PM Fri 59 59 N 3 381 700 0 Blue 4
11 PM Fri 58 58 NE 5 368 700 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sat 57 57 NE 5 356 700 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sat 57 57 NE 5 356 700 0 Blue 2
2 AM Sat 56 56 NE 5 344 700 0 Blue 1
3 AM Sat 55 55 NE 5 332 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 54 54 NE 5 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 53 53 NE 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 52 52 NE 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 52 52 NE 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 53 53 NE 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 61 61 NE 6 405 700 0 Blue 6
10 AM Sat 67 68 NE 6 908 700 0 Blue 13
11 AM Sat 70 72 NE 8 1018 935 235 Blue 17
12 Noon Sat 70 73 NE 8 1045 962 262 Blue 18
1 PM Sat 71 75 NE 8 1179 1017 317 Blue 20
2 PM Sat 69 72 NE 8 1018 935 235 Blue 17
3 PM Sat 70 72 NE 8 1018 935 235 Blue 17
4 PM Sat 68 69 NE 8 935 776 76 Blue 14
5 PM Sat 68 68 N 2 908 700 0 Blue 13
6 PM Sat 65 65 N 2 687 700 0 Blue 10
7 PM Sat 61 61 N 2 405 700 0 Blue 6
8 PM Sat 60 60 N 2 393 700 0 Blue 5
9 PM Sat 59 59 N 2 381 700 0 Blue 4
10 PM Sat 58 58 N 2 368 700 0 Blue 3
11 PM Sat 57 57 NE 3 356 700 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sun 57 57 NE 3 356 700 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sun 57 57 NE 3 356 700 0 Blue 2
2 AM Sun 56 56 NE 3 344 700 0 Blue 1
3 AM Sun 55 55 NE 3 332 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 55 55 NE 3 332 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 54 54 NE 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 53 53 NE 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 53 53 NE 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 54 54 NE 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 61 61 NE 6 405 700 0 Blue 6
10 AM Sun 67 68 NE 6 908 700 0 Blue 13
11 AM Sun 69 71 NE 5 990 907 207 Blue 16
12 Noon Sun 69 72 NE 5 1018 935 235 Blue 17
1 PM Sun 70 73 NE 5 1045 962 262 Blue 18
2 PM Sun 68 71 NE 5 990 907 207 Blue 16
3 PM Sun 69 71 NE 5 990 907 207 Blue 16
4 PM Sun 68 69 NE 5 935 776 76 Blue 14
5 PM Sun 67 67 NW 5 868 700 0 Blue 12
6 PM Sun 64 64 NW 5 597 700 0 Blue 9
7 PM Sun 61 61 NW 5 405 700 0 Blue 6
8 PM Sun 59 59 NW 5 381 700 0 Blue 4
9 PM Sun 59 59 NW 5 381 700 0 Blue 4
10 PM Sun 58 58 NW 5 368 700 0 Blue 3
11 PM Sun 57 57 N 2 356 700 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Mon 57 57 N 2 356 700 0 Blue 2
1 AM Mon 57 57 N 2 356 700 0 Blue 2
2 AM Mon 56 56 N 2 344 700 0 Blue 1
3 AM Mon 55 55 N 2 332 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 55 55 N 2 332 700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com