Detailed Predictions for: Cayucos
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.4282, -120.8728, 700
LZ Altitude (f): 1
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

16 APR 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Fri 47 47 NNW 4 8 1510 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 47 47 NNW 4 8 1510 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 46 46 NNW 4 9 980 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 46 46 NNW 4 10 980 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 46 46 N 5 10 980 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 46 46 N 5 11 980 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 48 48 N 4 9 1704 700 0 Blue 1
7 AM Fri 51 51 N 4 7 1777 1704 1004 Blue 4
8 AM Fri 53 53 N 4 6 1825 1752 1052 Blue 6
9 AM Fri 56 58 NNW 5 6 1946 1872 1172 Blue 11
10 AM Fri 59 63 NW 6 7 2464 1993 1293 Blue 16
11 AM Fri 62 68 NW 7 8 3499 2677 1977 Blue 21
12 Noon Fri 63 70 NW 9 11 4308 3052 2352 Blue 23
1 PM Fri 63 70 WNW 11 13 4308 3052 2352 Blue 23
2 PM Fri 63 70 WNW 13 15 4308 3052 2352 Blue 23
3 PM Fri 62 68 WNW 13 16 3499 2677 1977 Blue 21
4 PM Fri 61 65 WNW 13 16 2683 2223 1523 Blue 18
5 PM Fri 61 63 WNW 13 16 2464 1993 1293 Blue 16
6 PM Fri 59 59 WNW 12 18 1970 1896 1196 Blue 12
7 PM Fri 57 57 NW 11 19 1922 1848 1148 Blue 10
8 PM Fri 55 55 NW 10 21 1873 1800 1100 Blue 8
9 PM Fri 54 54 NW 8 18 1849 1776 1076 Blue 7
10 PM Fri 52 52 NW 7 15 1801 1728 1028 Blue 5
11 PM Fri 50 50 NW 5 12 1753 1497 797 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sat 50 50 NNW 5 10 1753 1497 797 Blue 3
1 AM Sat 50 50 NNW 4 8 1753 1497 797 Blue 3
2 AM Sat 51 51 N 3 6 1777 1704 1004 Blue 4
3 AM Sat 50 50 WSW 3 6 1753 1497 797 Blue 3
4 AM Sat 50 50 SE 3 6 1753 1497 797 Blue 3
5 AM Sat 50 50 NNE 3 6 1753 1497 797 Blue 3
6 AM Sat 52 52 NNE 3 5 1801 1728 1028 Blue 5
7 AM Sat 54 54 NNE 3 4 1849 1776 1076 Blue 7
8 AM Sat 57 57 NNE 3 4 1922 1848 1148 Blue 10
9 AM Sat 59 61 ESE 4 5 2064 1945 1245 Blue 14
10 AM Sat 61 65 SSW 5 6 2683 2223 1523 Blue 18
11 AM Sat 63 69 WNW 6 8 3907 2772 2072 Blue 22
12 Noon Sat 64 71 WNW 8 10 4704 3462 2762 Blue 24
1 PM Sat 64 71 WNW 10 12 4704 3462 2762 Blue 24
2 PM Sat 64 71 WNW 12 14 4704 3462 2762 Blue 24
3 PM Sat 64 69 WNW 11 14 3907 2772 2072 Blue 22
4 PM Sat 63 67 WNW 11 14 3084 2582 1882 Blue 20
5 PM Sat 63 65 WNW 10 14 2683 2223 1523 Blue 18
6 PM Sat 62 62 NW 8 14 2234 1969 1269 Blue 15
7 PM Sat 61 61 NW 7 13 2064 1945 1245 Blue 14
8 PM Sat 59 59 NW 6 12 1970 1896 1196 Blue 12
9 PM Sat 58 58 SSW 4 10 1946 1872 1172 Blue 11
10 PM Sat 57 57 ESE 3 7 1922 1848 1148 Blue 10
11 PM Sat 56 56 N 2 5 1897 1824 1124 Blue 9
12 Midnight Sun 55 55 N 2 5 1873 1800 1100 Blue 8
1 AM Sun 54 54 N 3 6 1849 1776 1076 Blue 7
2 AM Sun 53 53 N 3 6 1825 1752 1052 Blue 6
3 AM Sun 53 53 N 3 7 1825 1752 1052 Blue 6
4 AM Sun 53 53 N 4 8 1825 1752 1052 Blue 6
5 AM Sun 52 52 N 4 9 1801 1728 1028 Blue 5
6 AM Sun 55 55 N 4 8 1873 1800 1100 Blue 8
7 AM Sun 57 57 N 4 8 1922 1848 1148 Blue 10
8 AM Sun 60 60 N 4 7 1994 1921 1221 Blue 13
9 AM Sun 64 66 ESE 4 6 2778 2451 1751 Blue 19
10 AM Sun 67 71 SW 3 6 4704 3462 2762 Blue 24
11 AM Sun 71 77 NW 3 5 6548 6218 5518 Blue 30
12 Noon Sun 70 77 NW 5 8 6548 6218 5518 Blue 30
1 PM Sun 70 78 NW 7 11 6652 6321 5621 Blue 31
2 PM Sun 69 76 WNW 9 14 6444 6114 5414 Blue 29
3 PM Sun 68 74 WNW 9 14 6237 4653 3953 Blue 27
4 PM Sun 67 71 WNW 9 15 4704 3462 2762 Blue 24
5 PM Sun 66 68 WNW 9 15 3499 2677 1977 Blue 21
6 PM Sun 65 65 WNW 7 12 2683 2223 1523 Blue 18
7 PM Sun 64 64 WNW 5 8 2588 2059 1359 Blue 17
8 PM Sun 62 62 WNW 2 6 2234 1969 1269 Blue 15
9 PM Sun 61 61 W 2 4 2064 1945 1245 Blue 14
10 PM Sun 60 60 W 1 3 1994 1921 1221 Blue 13
11 PM Sun 59 59 WSW 0 1 1970 1896 1196 Blue 12

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com