Detailed Predictions for: Cayucos
Launch Altitude (f): 700
LZ Altitude (f): 1
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

4 DEC 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 45 45 NE 14 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 46 46 NE 14 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 45 45 NE 14 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 45 45 NE 14 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 49 49 NE 14 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 57 57 NE 14 605 700 0 Blue 5
10 AM Fri 64 65 NE 14 1374 1177 477 Blue 13
11 AM Fri 67 69 NE 14 1635 1436 736 Blue 17
12 Noon Fri 68 70 NE 14 1700 1501 801 Blue 18
1 PM Fri 68 70 NW 5 1700 1501 801 Blue 18
2 PM Fri 66 67 NW 5 1504 1307 607 Blue 15
3 PM Fri 65 65 NW 5 1374 1177 477 Blue 13
4 PM Fri 63 63 NW 5 1244 839 139 Blue 11
5 PM Fri 58 58 NW 5 648 700 0 Blue 6
6 PM Fri 55 55 NW 5 498 700 0 Blue 3
7 PM Fri 53 53 NW 5 390 700 0 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 51 51 NW 5 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 48 48 NW 5 0 700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 49 49 NE 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 48 48 NE 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 46 46 NE 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 44 44 NE 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 45 45 NE 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 43 43 NE 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 42 42 NE 12 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 42 42 NE 12 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 41 41 NE 12 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 41 41 NE 12 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 45 45 NE 12 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 55 55 NE 12 498 700 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sat 62 63 NE 10 1244 839 139 Blue 11
11 AM Sat 66 68 NE 10 1569 1371 671 Blue 16
12 Noon Sat 67 69 NE 10 1635 1436 736 Blue 17
1 PM Sat 67 69 NW 8 1635 1436 736 Blue 17
2 PM Sat 65 66 NW 8 1439 1242 542 Blue 14
3 PM Sat 65 65 NW 8 1374 1177 477 Blue 13
4 PM Sat 63 63 NW 7 1244 839 139 Blue 11
5 PM Sat 60 60 NW 7 845 700 0 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 58 58 NW 7 648 700 0 Blue 6
7 PM Sat 56 56 N 6 552 700 0 Blue 4
8 PM Sat 54 54 N 6 444 700 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sat 52 52 N 6 336 700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 53 53 NE 8 390 700 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sat 52 52 NE 8 336 700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 51 51 NE 8 0 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 50 50 NE 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 50 50 NE 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 48 48 NE 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 47 47 N 14 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 48 48 N 14 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 47 47 N 14 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 47 47 N 14 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 50 50 N 14 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 57 57 N 14 605 700 0 Blue 5
10 AM Sun 62 63 N 13 1244 839 139 Blue 11
11 AM Sun 64 65 N 13 1374 1177 477 Blue 13
12 Noon Sun 65 66 N 13 1439 1242 542 Blue 14
1 PM Sun 65 66 N 13 1439 1242 542 Blue 14
2 PM Sun 64 65 N 13 1374 1177 477 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 63 63 N 13 1244 839 139 Blue 11
4 PM Sun 61 61 NW 12 1114 700 0 Blue 9
5 PM Sun 58 58 NW 12 648 700 0 Blue 6
6 PM Sun 56 56 NW 12 552 700 0 Blue 4
7 PM Sun 55 55 N 10 498 700 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sun 53 53 N 10 390 700 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sun 51 51 N 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 52 52 N 14 336 700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 51 51 N 14 0 700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 50 50 N 14 0 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 48 48 NE 16 0 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 49 49 NE 16 0 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 47 47 NE 16 0 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 46 46 NE 16 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 47 47 NE 16 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 46 46 NE 16 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 46 46 NE 16 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 49 49 NE 16 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 57 57 NE 16 605 700 0 Blue 5
10 AM Mon 63 64 NE 17 1309 1112 412 Blue 12
11 AM Mon 65 67 NE 17 1504 1307 607 Blue 15
12 Noon Mon 66 68 NE 17 1569 1371 671 Blue 16
1 PM Mon 66 68 NE 16 1569 1371 671 Blue 16
2 PM Mon 65 66 NE 16 1439 1242 542 Blue 14
3 PM Mon 64 64 NE 16 1309 1112 412 Blue 12
4 PM Mon 63 63 NE 10 1244 839 139 Blue 11
5 PM Mon 60 60 NE 10 845 700 0 Blue 8
6 PM Mon 58 58 NE 10 648 700 0 Blue 6
7 PM Mon 57 57 NE 10 605 700 0 Blue 5
8 PM Mon 55 55 NE 10 498 700 0 Blue 3
9 PM Mon 53 53 NE 10 390 700 0 Blue 1
10 PM Mon 54 54 NE 10 444 700 0 Blue 2
11 PM Mon 53 53 NE 10 390 700 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Tue 52 52 NE 10 336 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 51 51 NE 15 0 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 51 51 NE 15 0 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 50 50 NE 15 0 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 49 49 NE 15 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 50 50 NE 15 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 49 49 NE 15 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 49 49 NE 15 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 53 53 NE 15 390 700 0 Blue 1
9 AM Tue 61 61 NE 15 1114 700 0 Blue 9
10 AM Tue 68 69 NE 16 1635 1436 736 Blue 17
11 AM Tue 71 73 NE 16 2193 1697 997 Blue 21
12 Noon Tue 72 74 NE 16 2958 1799 1099 Blue 22
1 PM Tue 72 74 NE 13 2958 1799 1099 Blue 22
2 PM Tue 70 71 NE 13 1807 1567 867 Blue 19
3 PM Tue 70 70 NE 13 1700 1501 801 Blue 18
4 PM Tue 68 68 N 9 1569 1371 671 Blue 16
5 PM Tue 63 63 N 9 1244 839 139 Blue 11
6 PM Tue 61 61 N 9 1114 700 0 Blue 9
7 PM Tue 59 59 NE 10 701 700 0 Blue 7
8 PM Tue 57 57 NE 10 605 700 0 Blue 5
9 PM Tue 54 54 NE 10 444 700 0 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 55 55 NE 12 498 700 0 Blue 3
11 PM Tue 54 54 NE 12 444 700 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Wed 52 52 NE 12 336 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 51 51 NE 13 0 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 51 51 NE 13 0 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 50 50 NE 13 0 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 48 48 NE 14 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 49 49 NE 14 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 48 48 NE 14 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 48 48 NE 14 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 51 51 NE 14 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 58 58 NE 14 648 700 0 Blue 6
10 AM Wed 63 64 NE 13 1309 1112 412 Blue 12
11 AM Wed 65 66 NE 13 1439 1242 542 Blue 14
12 Noon Wed 66 68 NE 13 1569 1371 671 Blue 16
1 PM Wed 66 67 N 12 1504 1307 607 Blue 15
2 PM Wed 64 65 N 12 1374 1177 477 Blue 13
3 PM Wed 64 64 N 12 1309 1112 412 Blue 12
4 PM Wed 62 62 NW 10 1179 700 0 Blue 10
5 PM Wed 59 59 NW 10 701 700 0 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 57 57 NW 10 605 700 0 Blue 5
7 PM Wed 55 55 N 8 498 700 0 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 53 53 N 8 390 700 0 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 51 51 N 8 0 700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 52 52 N 10 336 700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 51 51 N 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 50 50 N 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 49 49 NE 12 0 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 49 49 NE 12 0 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 47 47 NE 12 0 700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com