Detailed Predictions for: Cayucos
Launch Altitude (f): 700
LZ Altitude (f): 1
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

14 DEC 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 52 52 SE 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 52 52 SE 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 53 53 SE 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 51 51 SE 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 52 52 SE 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 55 55 SE 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 57 57 S 8 368 700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 60 60 S 8 1097 700 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Fri 61 61 S 8 1576 700 0 Blue 4
1 PM Fri 62 62 S 13 1975 700 0 Blue 5
2 PM Fri 61 61 S 13 1576 700 0 Blue 4
3 PM Fri 61 61 S 13 1576 700 0 Blue 4
4 PM Fri 59 59 S 7 606 700 0 Blue 2
5 PM Fri 54 54 S 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 51 51 S 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 49 49 SW 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 48 48 SW 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 49 49 SW 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 47 47 E 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 47 47 E 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 46 46 E 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 46 46 SE 5 0 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 46 46 SE 5 0 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 46 46 SE 5 0 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 46 46 E 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 45 45 E 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 45 45 E 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 44 44 NE 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 45 45 NE 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 50 50 NE 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 55 56 NE 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 59 61 NE 3 1576 700 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 62 64 NE 3 2374 1556 856 Blue 7
1 PM Sat 63 65 W 6 2482 1960 1260 Blue 8
2 PM Sat 62 63 W 6 2237 1083 383 Blue 6
3 PM Sat 62 62 W 6 1975 700 0 Blue 5
4 PM Sat 60 60 W 5 1097 700 0 Blue 3
5 PM Sat 56 56 W 5 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 53 53 W 5 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 51 51 W 5 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 50 50 W 5 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 50 50 W 5 0 700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 49 49 SE 2 0 700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 49 49 SE 2 0 700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 48 48 SE 2 0 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 48 48 SE 2 0 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 48 48 SE 2 0 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 48 48 SE 2 0 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 48 48 NE 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 47 47 NE 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 47 47 NE 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 46 46 NE 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 47 47 NE 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 51 51 NE 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 55 55 S 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 59 59 S 10 606 700 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sun 61 61 S 10 1576 700 0 Blue 4
1 PM Sun 62 62 S 10 1975 700 0 Blue 5
2 PM Sun 62 62 S 10 1975 700 0 Blue 5
3 PM Sun 61 61 S 10 1576 700 0 Blue 4
4 PM Sun 60 60 S 9 1097 700 0 Blue 3
5 PM Sun 57 57 S 9 368 700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 55 55 S 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 53 53 S 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 53 53 S 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 53 53 S 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 52 52 S 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 52 52 S 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 51 51 S 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 52 52 S 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 51 51 S 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 51 51 S 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 51 51 S 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 51 51 S 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 51 51 S 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 50 50 S 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 51 51 S 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 54 54 S 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 57 57 SW 5 368 700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 59 59 SW 5 606 700 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Mon 61 61 SW 5 1576 700 0 Blue 4
1 PM Mon 62 62 SW 5 1975 700 0 Blue 5
2 PM Mon 61 61 SW 5 1576 700 0 Blue 4
3 PM Mon 61 61 SW 5 1576 700 0 Blue 4
4 PM Mon 59 59 NW 7 606 700 0 Blue 2
5 PM Mon 55 55 NW 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 52 52 NW 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 51 51 NW 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 49 49 NW 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 50 50 NW 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 49 49 N 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 48 48 N 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 48 48 N 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 48 48 N 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 48 48 N 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 48 48 N 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 48 48 N 8 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 47 47 N 8 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 47 47 N 8 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 46 46 N 8 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 47 47 N 8 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 51 51 N 8 0 700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 56 57 N 9 368 700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 59 60 N 9 1097 700 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Tue 62 64 N 9 2374 1556 856 Blue 7
1 PM Tue 63 65 N 9 2482 1960 1260 Blue 8
2 PM Tue 62 63 N 9 2237 1083 383 Blue 6
3 PM Tue 62 62 N 9 1975 700 0 Blue 5
4 PM Tue 60 60 N 8 1097 700 0 Blue 3
5 PM Tue 56 56 N 8 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 53 53 N 8 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 51 51 N 8 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 50 50 N 8 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 50 50 N 8 0 700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 49 49 N 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 49 49 N 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 48 48 N 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 48 48 N 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 48 48 N 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 48 48 N 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 48 48 NE 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 47 47 NE 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 47 47 NE 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 46 46 NE 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 47 47 NE 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 53 53 NE 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 59 60 NE 8 1097 700 0 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 63 65 NE 8 2482 1960 1260 Blue 8
12 Noon Wed 67 69 NE 8 2891 2581 1881 Blue 12
1 PM Wed 68 70 NE 8 2981 2699 1999 Blue 13
2 PM Wed 67 68 NE 8 2802 2474 1774 Blue 11
3 PM Wed 66 66 NE 8 2590 2220 1520 Blue 9
4 PM Wed 64 64 N 3 2374 1556 856 Blue 7
5 PM Wed 59 59 N 3 606 700 0 Blue 2
6 PM Wed 54 54 N 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 52 52 N 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 51 51 N 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 52 52 N 3 0 700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 50 50 NE 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 49 49 NE 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 48 48 NE 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 49 49 NE 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 48 48 NE 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 48 48 NE 6 0 700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com