Detailed Predictions for: Cayucos
Launch Altitude (f): 700
LZ Altitude (f): 1
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

23 FEB 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 42 42 N 8 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 41 41 N 8 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 39 39 N 8 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 38 38 NE 5 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 40 40 NE 5 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 43 44 NE 5 0 700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 48 50 N 9 3931 700 0 White 4
11 AM Fri 51 54 N 9 4770 4770 4070 White 8
12 Noon Fri 54 57 N 9 5399 5399 4699 White 11
1 PM Fri 56 59 NW 17 5808 5808 5108 White 13
2 PM Fri 57 59 NW 17 5808 5808 5108 White 13
3 PM Fri 57 58 NW 17 5605 5605 4905 White 12
4 PM Fri 56 56 NW 16 5194 5194 4494 White 10
5 PM Fri 55 55 NW 16 4988 4988 4288 White 9
6 PM Fri 53 53 NW 16 4562 4562 3862 White 7
7 PM Fri 51 51 N 13 4141 765 65 White 5
8 PM Fri 49 49 N 13 3721 700 0 White 3
9 PM Fri 47 47 N 13 513 700 0 Blue 1
10 PM Fri 44 44 N 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 42 42 N 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 40 40 N 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 38 38 N 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 37 37 N 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 36 36 N 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 35 35 NE 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 32 32 NE 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 31 31 NE 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 33 33 N 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 39 39 N 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 48 49 N 6 3721 700 0 White 3
10 AM Sat 55 57 NW 6 5399 5399 4699 White 11
11 AM Sat 58 61 NW 6 6215 6215 5515 White 15
12 Noon Sat 59 63 NW 6 6621 6621 5921 White 17
1 PM Sat 58 61 NW 16 6215 6215 5515 White 15
2 PM Sat 58 61 NW 16 6215 6215 5515 White 15
3 PM Sat 58 60 NW 16 6012 6012 5312 White 14
4 PM Sat 57 57 NW 17 5399 5399 4699 White 11
5 PM Sat 56 56 NW 17 5194 5194 4494 White 10
6 PM Sat 54 54 NW 17 4770 4770 4070 White 8
7 PM Sat 53 53 NW 16 4562 4562 3862 White 7
8 PM Sat 51 51 NW 16 4141 765 65 White 5
9 PM Sat 49 49 NW 16 3721 700 0 White 3
10 PM Sat 47 47 NW 14 513 700 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sat 45 45 NW 14 0 700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 42 42 NW 14 0 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 41 41 N 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 41 41 N 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 41 41 N 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 41 41 N 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 40 40 N 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 40 40 N 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 41 41 N 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 44 44 N 10 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 49 50 N 10 3931 700 0 White 4
10 AM Sun 53 55 N 9 4988 4988 4288 White 9
11 AM Sun 57 60 N 9 6012 6012 5312 White 14
12 Noon Sun 59 63 N 9 6621 6621 5921 White 17
1 PM Sun 61 65 NW 14 7018 7018 6318 White 19
2 PM Sun 61 64 NW 14 6820 6820 6120 White 18
3 PM Sun 60 62 NW 14 6418 6418 5718 White 16
4 PM Sun 59 59 NW 14 5808 5808 5108 White 13
5 PM Sun 57 57 NW 14 5399 5399 4699 White 11
6 PM Sun 56 56 NW 14 5194 5194 4494 White 10
7 PM Sun 54 54 NW 14 4770 4770 4070 White 8
8 PM Sun 53 53 NW 14 4562 4562 3862 White 7
9 PM Sun 52 52 NW 14 4352 3569 2869 White 6
10 PM Sun 52 52 N 7 4352 3569 2869 White 6
11 PM Sun 50 50 N 7 3931 700 0 White 4
12 Midnight Mon 49 49 N 7 3721 700 0 White 3
1 AM Mon 48 48 N 7 775 700 0 Blue 2
2 AM Mon 47 47 N 7 513 700 0 Blue 1
3 AM Mon 46 46 N 7 366 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 45 45 N 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 43 43 N 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 42 42 N 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 42 42 N 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 44 44 N 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 48 49 N 7 3721 700 0 White 3
10 AM Mon 51 52 W 20 4352 3569 2869 White 6
11 AM Mon 53 55 W 20 4988 4988 4288 White 9
12 Noon Mon 54 56 W 20 5194 5194 4494 White 10
1 PM Mon 55 57 W 20 5399 5399 4699 White 11
2 PM Mon 55 56 W 20 5194 5194 4494 White 10
3 PM Mon 54 55 W 20 4988 4988 4288 White 9
4 PM Mon 54 54 W 21 4770 4770 4070 White 8
5 PM Mon 52 52 W 21 4352 3569 2869 White 6
6 PM Mon 51 51 W 21 4141 765 65 White 5
7 PM Mon 50 50 W 21 3931 700 0 White 4
8 PM Mon 48 48 W 21 775 700 0 Blue 2
9 PM Mon 47 47 W 21 513 700 0 Blue 1
10 PM Mon 46 46 NW 9 366 700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 44 44 NW 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 43 43 NW 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 43 43 NW 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 42 42 NW 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 42 42 NW 9 0 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 42 42 N 8 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 43 43 N 8 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 44 44 N 8 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 45 45 N 8 0 700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 46 46 N 8 366 700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 48 48 N 8 775 700 0 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 49 50 NW 13 3931 700 0 White 4
11 AM Tue 51 52 NW 13 4352 3569 2869 White 6
12 Noon Tue 53 55 NW 13 4988 4988 4288 White 9
1 PM Tue 54 56 NW 13 5194 5194 4494 White 10
2 PM Tue 55 56 NW 13 5194 5194 4494 White 10
3 PM Tue 56 57 NW 13 5399 5399 4699 White 11
4 PM Tue 56 56 NW 13 5194 5194 4494 White 10
5 PM Tue 55 55 NW 13 4988 4988 4288 White 9
6 PM Tue 53 53 NW 13 4562 4562 3862 White 7
7 PM Tue 51 51 NW 13 4141 765 65 White 5
8 PM Tue 48 48 NW 13 775 700 0 Blue 2
9 PM Tue 46 46 NW 13 366 700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 43 43 N 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 42 42 N 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 41 41 N 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 40 40 N 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 40 40 N 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 40 40 N 7 0 700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 41 41 N 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 43 43 N 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 45 45 N 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 47 47 N 6 513 700 0 Blue 1
8 AM Wed 49 49 N 6 3721 700 0 White 3
9 AM Wed 51 52 N 6 4352 3569 2869 White 6
10 AM Wed 53 55 W 13 4988 4988 4288 White 9
11 AM Wed 55 57 W 13 5399 5399 4699 White 11
12 Noon Wed 57 60 W 13 6012 6012 5312 White 14
1 PM Wed 58 61 W 13 6215 6215 5515 White 15
2 PM Wed 59 61 W 13 6215 6215 5515 White 15
3 PM Wed 59 60 W 13 6012 6012 5312 White 14
4 PM Wed 58 58 W 14 5605 5605 4905 White 12
5 PM Wed 57 57 W 14 5399 5399 4699 White 11
6 PM Wed 55 55 W 14 4988 4988 4288 White 9
7 PM Wed 53 53 W 14 4562 4562 3862 White 7
8 PM Wed 51 51 W 14 4141 765 65 White 5
9 PM Wed 48 48 W 14 775 700 0 Blue 2
10 PM Wed 46 46 N 6 366 700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 44 44 N 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 43 43 N 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 42 42 N 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 42 42 N 6 0 700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 42 42 N 6 0 700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com