Detailed Predictions for: Cayucos
Launch Altitude (f): 700
LZ Altitude (f): 1
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 49 49 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 49 49 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 50 50 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 51 51 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 52 52 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 53 53 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 54 59 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 54 60 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 55 62 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 55 61 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 55 60 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 55 58 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 54 54 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 53 53 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 52 52 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 52 52 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 51 51 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 51 51 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 51 51 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 50 50 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 50 50 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 50 50 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 49 49 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 49 49 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 49 49 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 49 49 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 50 50 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 51 51 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 52 52 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 53 54 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 54 59 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 54 60 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 55 61 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 55 61 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 55 60 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 55 58 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 54 56 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 54 54 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 53 53 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 52 52 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 52 52 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 52 52 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 51 51 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 51 51 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 51 51 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 51 51 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 50 50 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 50 50 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 50 50 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 50 50 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 51 51 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 52 52 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 52 54 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 53 56 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 53 58 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 54 60 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 54 60 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 54 60 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 54 59 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 54 57 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 54 56 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 53 53 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 52 52 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 52 52 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 51 51 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 51 51 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 51 51 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 51 51 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 51 51 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 50 50 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 50 50 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 50 50 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 50 50 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 50 50 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 51 51 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 52 53 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 53 55 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 54 58 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 55 60 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 55 61 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 56 62 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 56 62 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 56 61 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 56 59 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 55 57 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 54 54 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 53 53 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 53 53 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 52 52 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 52 52 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 52 52 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 51 51 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 51 51 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 51 51 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 50 50 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 50 50 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 50 50 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 50 50 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 51 51 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 52 52 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 53 55 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 53 56 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 54 59 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 54 60 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 55 61 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 55 61 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 55 60 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 55 58 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 54 56 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 54 54 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 53 53 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 52 52 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 52 52 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 51 51 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 51 51 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 51 51 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 51 51 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 50 50 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 50 50 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 50 50 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 50 50 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 51 51 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 52 52 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 53 53 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 54 55 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 54 57 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 55 59 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 55 59 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 56 61 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 56 60 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 56 59 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 56 58 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 55 56 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 55 55 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 54 54 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 53 53 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 53 53 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 52 52 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 52 52 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 52 52 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 52 52 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 51 51 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 51 51 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 51 51 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com