Detailed Predictions for: Dunlap
Launch Altitude (f): 4600
LZ Altitude (f): 2200
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

15 JUN 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 62 62 SE 3 3970 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 62 62 SE 5 3970 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 65 65 SE 5 3970 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 70 71 S 2 5688 4600 0 Blue 2
9 AM Sat 72 75 SW 3 6231 5818 1218 Blue 6
10 AM Sat 74 79 SW 5 7528 6359 1759 Blue 10
11 AM Sat 75 82 SW 6 8872 7367 2767 Blue 13
12 Noon Sat 77 86 SW 6 11135 9192 4592 Blue 17
1 PM Sat 78 87 SW 7 11800 9561 4961 Blue 18
2 PM Sat 80 88 W 7 12432 10294 5694 Blue 19
3 PM Sat 80 87 W 7 11800 9561 4961 Blue 18
4 PM Sat 80 85 W 7 10431 8819 4219 Blue 16
5 PM Sat 80 83 W 7 9249 8057 3457 Blue 14
6 PM Sat 80 81 W 7 8490 6717 2117 Blue 12
7 PM Sat 78 78 NW 6 6733 6224 1624 Blue 9
8 PM Sat 73 73 NW 3 5960 5547 947 Blue 4
9 PM Sat 69 69 NW 5 4834 4600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 67 67 N 5 3970 4600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 67 67 N 6 3970 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 66 66 N 2 3970 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 65 65 E 1 3970 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 64 64 SE 3 3970 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 64 64 SE 3 3970 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 63 63 SE 5 3970 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 63 63 E 5 3970 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 63 63 E 5 3970 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 65 65 E 5 3970 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 69 70 SW 3 5552 4600 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sun 72 75 SW 3 6231 5818 1218 Blue 6
10 AM Sun 72 77 SW 3 6513 6088 1488 Blue 8
11 AM Sun 74 79 SW 5 7528 6359 1759 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 76 82 W 6 8872 7367 2767 Blue 13
1 PM Sun 77 83 W 6 9249 8057 3457 Blue 14
2 PM Sun 78 84 W 6 9622 8440 3840 Blue 15
3 PM Sun 79 84 W 6 9622 8440 3840 Blue 15
4 PM Sun 79 82 W 6 8872 7367 2767 Blue 13
5 PM Sun 79 82 W 6 8872 7367 2767 Blue 13
6 PM Sun 77 78 W 6 6733 6224 1624 Blue 9
7 PM Sun 75 75 NW 5 6231 5818 1218 Blue 6
8 PM Sun 72 72 NW 5 5824 4827 227 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 70 70 N 5 5552 4600 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 68 68 NE 6 4361 4600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 67 67 NE 6 3970 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 66 66 NE 6 3970 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 65 65 NE 6 3970 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 65 65 NE 6 3970 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 64 64 NE 6 3970 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 64 64 E 6 3970 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 64 64 E 6 3970 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 66 66 E 5 3970 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 68 68 SE 5 4361 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 71 72 S 3 5824 4827 227 Blue 3
9 AM Mon 73 76 S 3 6367 5953 1353 Blue 7
10 AM Mon 75 80 SW 5 8102 6499 1899 Blue 11
11 AM Mon 77 77 SW 5 6513 6088 1488 Blue 8
12 Noon Mon 78 78 W 5 6733 6224 1624 Blue 9
1 PM Mon 79 79 W 5 7528 6359 1759 Blue 10
2 PM Mon 80 80 W 5 8102 6499 1899 Blue 11
3 PM Mon 80 80 W 5 8102 6499 1899 Blue 11
4 PM Mon 80 80 W 6 8102 6499 1899 Blue 11
5 PM Mon 79 82 W 6 8872 7367 2767 Blue 13
6 PM Mon 78 79 W 6 7528 6359 1759 Blue 10
7 PM Mon 77 77 NW 5 6513 6088 1488 Blue 8
8 PM Mon 75 75 NW 5 6231 5818 1218 Blue 6
9 PM Mon 73 73 N 6 5960 5547 947 Blue 4
10 PM Mon 72 72 NE 7 5824 4827 227 Blue 3
11 PM Mon 70 70 NE 8 5552 4600 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Tue 69 69 NE 8 4834 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 68 68 E 7 4361 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 67 67 E 7 3970 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 66 66 E 7 3970 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 66 66 E 7 3970 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 66 66 NE 7 3970 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 68 68 NE 6 4361 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 70 70 NE 6 5552 4600 0 Blue 1
8 AM Tue 73 74 NE 5 6096 5683 1083 Blue 5
9 AM Tue 75 78 N 5 6733 6224 1624 Blue 9
10 AM Tue 78 83 W 5 9249 8057 3457 Blue 14
11 AM Tue 80 82 SW 5 8872 7367 2767 Blue 13
12 Noon Tue 82 84 W 5 9622 8440 3840 Blue 15
1 PM Tue 83 85 W 6 10431 8819 4219 Blue 16
2 PM Tue 84 86 W 6 11135 9192 4592 Blue 17
3 PM Tue 85 87 W 6 11800 9561 4961 Blue 18
4 PM Tue 85 86 W 6 11135 9192 4592 Blue 17
5 PM Tue 85 88 W 6 12432 10294 5694 Blue 19
6 PM Tue 83 84 W 6 9622 8440 3840 Blue 15
7 PM Tue 81 81 W 6 8490 6717 2117 Blue 12
8 PM Tue 78 78 W 6 6733 6224 1624 Blue 9
9 PM Tue 76 76 W 6 6367 5953 1353 Blue 7
10 PM Tue 74 74 W 6 6096 5683 1083 Blue 5
11 PM Tue 72 72 NE 6 5824 4827 227 Blue 3
12 Midnight Wed 71 71 NE 6 5688 4600 0 Blue 2
1 AM Wed 70 70 NE 6 5552 4600 0 Blue 1
2 AM Wed 69 69 NE 6 4834 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 68 68 NE 6 4361 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 67 67 NE 6 3970 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 67 67 SE 1 3970 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 69 69 SE 1 4834 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 72 72 SE 1 5824 4827 227 Blue 3
8 AM Wed 75 76 SE 1 6367 5953 1353 Blue 7
9 AM Wed 77 80 SE 1 8102 6499 1899 Blue 11
10 AM Wed 79 84 SE 1 9622 8440 3840 Blue 15
11 AM Wed 81 88 W 6 12432 10294 5694 Blue 19
12 Noon Wed 83 91 W 6 14258 12273 7673 White 22
1 PM Wed 84 92 W 6 14467 12872 8272 White 23
2 PM Wed 85 93 W 6 14676 13446 8846 White 24
3 PM Wed 86 92 W 6 14467 12872 8272 White 23
4 PM Wed 86 91 W 6 14258 12273 7673 White 22
5 PM Wed 85 88 W 6 12432 10294 5694 Blue 19
6 PM Wed 83 84 W 6 9622 8440 3840 Blue 15
7 PM Wed 81 81 W 6 8490 6717 2117 Blue 12
8 PM Wed 78 78 W 6 6733 6224 1624 Blue 9
9 PM Wed 75 75 W 6 6231 5818 1218 Blue 6
10 PM Wed 73 73 W 6 5960 5547 947 Blue 4
11 PM Wed 71 71 E 6 5688 4600 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Thu 70 70 E 6 5552 4600 0 Blue 1
1 AM Thu 69 69 E 6 4834 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 68 68 E 6 4361 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 67 67 E 6 3970 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 66 66 E 6 3970 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 66 66 SE 3 3970 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 68 68 SE 3 4361 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 70 70 SE 3 5552 4600 0 Blue 1
8 AM Thu 73 74 SE 3 6096 5683 1083 Blue 5
9 AM Thu 75 78 SE 3 6733 6224 1624 Blue 9
10 AM Thu 77 82 SE 3 8872 7367 2767 Blue 13
11 AM Thu 79 86 W 8 11135 9192 4592 Blue 17
12 Noon Thu 81 90 W 8 14049 11647 7047 White 21
1 PM Thu 82 91 W 8 14258 12273 7673 White 22
2 PM Thu 83 91 W 8 14258 12273 7673 White 22
3 PM Thu 84 91 W 8 14258 12273 7673 White 22
4 PM Thu 84 89 W 8 13036 10989 6389 Blue 20
5 PM Thu 83 86 W 7 11135 9192 4592 Blue 17
6 PM Thu 81 82 W 7 8872 7367 2767 Blue 13
7 PM Thu 78 78 W 7 6733 6224 1624 Blue 9
8 PM Thu 75 75 W 7 6231 5818 1218 Blue 6
9 PM Thu 72 72 W 7 5824 4827 227 Blue 3
10 PM Thu 70 70 W 7 5552 4600 0 Blue 1
11 PM Thu 68 68 E 7 4361 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 67 67 E 7 3970 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 66 66 E 7 3970 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 65 65 E 7 3970 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 64 64 E 7 3970 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 63 63 E 7 3970 4600 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com