Detailed Predictions for: Dunlap
Launch Altitude (f): 4600
LZ Altitude (f): 2200
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 54 54 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 54 54 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 55 55 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 62 63 SW 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 66 68 SW 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 67 71 SW 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 69 73 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 70 75 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 71 76 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 73 78 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 74 78 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 73 75 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 73 74 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 73 73 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 70 70 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 62 62 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 61 61 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 59 59 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 58 58 SE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 56 56 SE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 53 53 SE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 54 54 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 53 53 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 51 51 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 50 50 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 50 50 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 51 51 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 55 56 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 58 60 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 59 63 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 60 65 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 61 67 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 62 69 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 63 69 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 64 69 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 63 66 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 64 66 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 64 64 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 61 61 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 55 55 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 53 53 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 52 52 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 52 52 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 50 50 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 48 48 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 48 48 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 47 47 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 46 46 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 45 45 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 45 45 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 46 46 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 50 50 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 53 54 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 53 56 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 55 59 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 55 59 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 56 61 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 57 61 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 58 61 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 57 59 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 58 59 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 58 58 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 55 55 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 51 51 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 50 50 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 49 49 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 48 48 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 47 47 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 45 45 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 45 45 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 45 45 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 44 44 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 43 43 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 43 43 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 44 44 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 49 49 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 52 54 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 53 56 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 55 59 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 56 61 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 57 62 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 58 62 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 59 63 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 58 60 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 59 60 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 59 59 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 56 56 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 52 52 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 51 51 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 50 50 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 50 50 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 49 49 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 47 47 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 47 47 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 46 46 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 46 46 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 45 45 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 45 45 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 46 46 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 49 49 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 51 52 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 52 55 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 53 57 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 54 58 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 55 59 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 55 59 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 56 59 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 56 58 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 56 57 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 56 56 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 54 54 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 52 52 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 51 51 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 50 50 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 50 50 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 49 49 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 48 48 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 48 48 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 48 48 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 47 47 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 47 47 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 47 47 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 48 48 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 52 52 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 55 56 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 56 58 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 57 60 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 58 62 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 59 63 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 60 63 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 61 64 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 61 63 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 61 62 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 61 61 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 59 59 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 55 55 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 54 54 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 53 53 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 53 53 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 51 51 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 50 50 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 50 50 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 49 49 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 49 49 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com