Detailed Predictions for: Dunlap
Launch Altitude (f): 4600
LZ Altitude (f): 2200
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 56 56 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 56 56 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 56 56 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 62 63 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 67 69 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 68 72 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 69 75 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 71 78 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 72 79 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 74 81 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 75 80 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 76 79 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 75 77 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 74 74 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 70 70 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 63 63 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 62 62 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 62 62 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 61 61 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 60 60 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 57 57 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 56 56 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 56 56 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 56 56 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 56 56 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 56 56 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 56 56 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 62 63 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 66 69 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 67 71 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 68 73 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 70 76 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 72 77 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 73 79 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 74 78 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 75 77 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 74 75 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 73 73 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 69 69 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 62 62 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 61 61 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 61 61 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 60 60 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 59 59 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 56 56 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 55 55 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 55 55 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 55 55 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 55 55 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 55 55 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 55 55 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 61 62 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 65 67 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 66 69 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 67 71 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 69 74 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 71 76 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 72 76 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 73 76 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 74 75 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 73 73 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 72 72 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 68 68 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 60 60 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 59 59 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 59 59 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 58 58 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 57 57 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 54 54 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 53 53 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 53 53 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 53 53 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 53 53 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 53 53 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 53 53 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 59 60 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 63 65 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 64 68 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 65 69 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 66 70 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 68 73 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 69 73 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 70 73 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 71 73 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 70 71 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 69 69 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 65 65 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 59 59 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 58 58 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 58 58 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 56 56 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 56 56 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 53 53 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 52 52 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 52 52 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 52 52 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 52 52 SE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 52 52 SE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 52 52 SE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 55 55 SE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 58 58 SE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 58 59 SE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 59 60 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 59 61 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 60 62 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 61 63 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 61 62 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 62 63 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 61 62 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 61 61 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 58 58 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 53 53 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 52 52 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 52 52 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 51 51 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 51 51 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 49 49 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 48 48 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 48 48 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 48 48 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 48 48 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 48 48 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 48 48 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 52 52 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 55 57 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 56 59 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 57 60 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 57 60 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 59 62 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 59 62 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 60 62 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 61 63 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 60 61 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 60 60 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 56 56 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 51 51 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 50 50 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 50 50 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 49 49 S 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 48 48 S 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 46 46 S 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 45 45 S 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 45 45 S 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 45 45 S 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com