Detailed Predictions for: Dunlap
Launch Altitude (f): 4600
LZ Altitude (f): 2200
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

19 AUG 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 64 64 NE 2 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 64 64 NE 2 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 67 67 NE 2 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 75 75 W 2 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 80 82 W 2 8165 5215 615 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 82 86 W 2 9590 8553 3953 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 83 89 SW 8 10711 9537 4937 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 85 92 SW 8 11696 10645 6045 Blue 13
1 PM Sun 86 94 SW 8 12523 11299 6699 Blue 15
2 PM Sun 87 94 W 8 12523 11299 6699 Blue 15
3 PM Sun 88 94 W 8 12523 11299 6699 Blue 15
4 PM Sun 88 92 W 8 11696 10645 6045 Blue 13
5 PM Sun 87 89 NW 6 10711 9537 4937 Blue 10
6 PM Sun 86 87 NW 6 9915 8884 4284 Blue 8
7 PM Sun 84 84 NW 6 8931 7464 2864 Blue 5
8 PM Sun 75 75 NE 2 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 71 71 NE 2 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 71 71 NE 2 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 70 70 E 5 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 69 69 E 5 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 69 69 E 5 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 68 68 E 6 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 68 68 E 6 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 66 66 E 6 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 65 65 SE 3 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 64 64 SE 3 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 67 67 SE 3 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 75 75 S 3 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 79 81 S 3 7527 4600 0 Blue 2
10 AM Mon 81 85 S 3 9262 8093 3493 Blue 6
11 AM Mon 83 89 SW 8 10711 9537 4937 Blue 10
12 Noon Mon 84 91 SW 8 11371 10177 5577 Blue 12
1 PM Mon 85 93 SW 8 12018 10974 6374 Blue 14
2 PM Mon 86 93 W 9 12018 10974 6374 Blue 14
3 PM Mon 87 93 W 9 12018 10974 6374 Blue 14
4 PM Mon 87 91 W 9 11371 10177 5577 Blue 12
5 PM Mon 86 88 SW 5 10236 9212 4612 Blue 9
6 PM Mon 85 86 SW 5 9590 8553 3953 Blue 7
7 PM Mon 83 83 SW 5 8597 6593 1993 Blue 4
8 PM Mon 74 74 E 6 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 70 70 E 6 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 70 70 E 6 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 69 69 E 7 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 68 68 E 7 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 68 68 E 7 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 67 67 E 5 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 67 67 E 5 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 65 65 E 5 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 64 64 SE 2 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 63 63 SE 2 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 66 66 SE 2 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 73 73 SE 2 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 77 79 SE 2 5256 4600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 79 83 SE 2 8597 6593 1993 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 81 86 SW 8 9590 8553 3953 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 82 88 SW 8 10236 9212 4612 Blue 9
1 PM Tue 83 90 SW 8 11043 9858 5258 Blue 11
2 PM Tue 84 90 SW 8 11043 9858 5258 Blue 11
3 PM Tue 85 90 SW 8 11043 9858 5258 Blue 11
4 PM Tue 85 89 SW 8 10711 9537 4937 Blue 10
5 PM Tue 84 86 SW 5 9590 8553 3953 Blue 7
6 PM Tue 83 84 SW 5 8931 7464 2864 Blue 5
7 PM Tue 81 81 SW 5 7527 4600 0 Blue 2
8 PM Tue 73 73 SW 5 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 69 69 SW 5 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 69 69 SW 5 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 67 67 E 6 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 66 66 E 6 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 67 67 E 6 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 66 66 E 6 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 66 66 E 6 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 64 64 E 6 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 63 63 SE 2 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 62 62 SE 2 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 65 65 SE 2 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 73 73 SE 2 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 77 79 SE 2 5256 4600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 79 83 SE 2 8597 6593 1993 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 81 87 SW 8 9915 8884 4284 Blue 8
12 Noon Wed 82 89 SW 8 10711 9537 4937 Blue 10
1 PM Wed 83 90 SW 8 11043 9858 5258 Blue 11
2 PM Wed 84 91 SW 8 11371 10177 5577 Blue 12
3 PM Wed 85 91 SW 8 11371 10177 5577 Blue 12
4 PM Wed 85 89 SW 8 10711 9537 4937 Blue 10
5 PM Wed 84 86 N 1 9590 8553 3953 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 83 84 N 1 8931 7464 2864 Blue 5
7 PM Wed 81 81 N 1 7527 4600 0 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 72 72 N 1 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 68 68 N 1 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 68 68 N 1 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 67 67 E 6 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 66 66 E 6 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 66 66 E 6 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 65 65 E 6 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 65 65 E 6 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 63 63 E 6 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 62 62 SE 2 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 61 61 SE 2 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 64 64 SE 2 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 72 72 SE 2 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 76 78 SE 2 4076 4600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 78 82 SE 2 8165 5215 615 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 80 86 W 7 9590 8553 3953 Blue 7
12 Noon Thu 81 88 W 7 10236 9212 4612 Blue 9
1 PM Thu 82 90 W 7 11043 9858 5258 Blue 11
2 PM Thu 83 90 W 7 11043 9858 5258 Blue 11
3 PM Thu 84 90 W 7 11043 9858 5258 Blue 11
4 PM Thu 84 88 W 7 10236 9212 4612 Blue 9
5 PM Thu 83 85 W 6 9262 8093 3493 Blue 6
6 PM Thu 82 83 W 6 8597 6593 1993 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 80 80 W 6 6681 4600 0 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 72 72 W 6 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 68 68 W 6 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 68 68 W 6 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 66 66 E 6 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 65 65 E 6 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 66 66 E 6 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 65 65 E 6 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 65 65 E 6 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 63 63 E 6 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 62 62 S 2 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 61 61 S 2 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 64 64 S 2 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 72 72 S 2 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 76 78 S 2 4076 4600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 78 82 S 2 8165 5215 615 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 80 86 W 8 9590 8553 3953 Blue 7
12 Noon Fri 81 88 W 8 10236 9212 4612 Blue 9
1 PM Fri 82 90 W 8 11043 9858 5258 Blue 11
2 PM Fri 83 90 W 8 11043 9858 5258 Blue 11
3 PM Fri 84 90 W 8 11043 9858 5258 Blue 11
4 PM Fri 84 88 W 8 10236 9212 4612 Blue 9
5 PM Fri 83 85 N 5 9262 8093 3493 Blue 6
6 PM Fri 82 83 N 5 8597 6593 1993 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 80 80 N 5 6681 4600 0 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 71 71 N 5 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 67 67 N 5 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 67 67 N 5 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 66 66 E 6 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 65 65 E 6 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 65 65 E 6 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 64 64 E 6 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 64 64 E 6 3100 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 62 62 E 6 3100 4600 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com