Detailed Predictions for: Dunlap
Launch Altitude (f): 4600
LZ Altitude (f): 2200
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

16 OCT 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 44 44 NW 2 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 44 44 NW 2 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 44 44 NW 2 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 46 46 W 1 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 51 52 W 1 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 57 59 W 1 5005 4600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 63 66 W 7 7725 6547 1947 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 66 70 W 7 10295 8055 3455 Blue 11
1 PM Tue 67 71 W 7 10744 8420 3820 Blue 12
2 PM Tue 67 71 W 9 10744 8420 3820 Blue 12
3 PM Tue 67 70 W 9 10295 8055 3455 Blue 11
4 PM Tue 67 68 W 9 8468 7311 2711 Blue 9
5 PM Tue 66 66 N 10 7725 6547 1947 Blue 7
6 PM Tue 62 62 N 10 6335 5000 400 Blue 3
7 PM Tue 59 59 N 10 5005 4600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 55 55 NE 12 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 54 54 NE 12 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 53 53 NE 12 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 53 53 E 6 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 52 52 E 6 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 51 51 E 6 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 50 50 E 8 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 49 49 E 8 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 49 49 E 8 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 49 49 E 8 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 48 48 E 8 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 47 47 E 8 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 48 48 E 7 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 53 54 E 7 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 58 60 E 7 5927 4600 0 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 63 66 W 7 7725 6547 1947 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 66 70 W 7 10295 8055 3455 Blue 11
1 PM Wed 67 71 W 7 10744 8420 3820 Blue 12
2 PM Wed 68 72 W 8 11183 9043 4443 Blue 13
3 PM Wed 68 71 W 8 10744 8420 3820 Blue 12
4 PM Wed 68 69 W 8 9225 7685 3085 Blue 10
5 PM Wed 66 66 SW 5 7725 6547 1947 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 63 63 SW 5 6574 5917 1317 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 58 58 SW 5 4303 4600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 55 55 SW 5 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 53 53 SW 5 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 53 53 SW 5 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 53 53 E 3 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 52 52 E 3 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 51 51 E 3 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 50 50 E 3 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 49 49 E 3 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 49 49 E 3 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 48 48 N 2 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 47 47 N 2 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 47 47 N 2 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 49 49 N 2 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 54 55 N 2 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 59 61 N 2 6131 4600 0 Blue 2
11 AM Thu 64 67 W 8 8099 6932 2332 Blue 8
12 Noon Thu 67 71 W 8 10744 8420 3820 Blue 12
1 PM Thu 69 73 W 8 11614 10127 5527 Blue 14
2 PM Thu 69 73 W 8 11614 10127 5527 Blue 14
3 PM Thu 69 72 W 8 11183 9043 4443 Blue 13
4 PM Thu 68 69 W 8 9225 7685 3085 Blue 10
5 PM Thu 66 66 W 5 7725 6547 1947 Blue 7
6 PM Thu 63 63 W 5 6574 5917 1317 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 58 58 W 5 4303 4600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 54 54 W 5 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 52 52 W 5 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 52 52 W 5 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 52 52 W 7 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 51 51 W 7 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 50 50 W 7 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 49 49 W 7 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 49 49 W 7 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 48 48 W 7 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 47 47 N 6 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 46 46 N 6 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 46 46 N 6 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 48 48 N 6 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 54 55 N 6 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 61 63 N 6 6574 5917 1317 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 68 71 W 7 10744 8420 3820 Blue 12
12 Noon Fri 72 76 W 7 13581 11513 6913 Blue 17
1 PM Fri 73 77 W 7 14009 11931 7331 Blue 18
2 PM Fri 74 78 W 7 14429 12317 7717 Blue 19
3 PM Fri 74 77 W 7 14009 11931 7331 Blue 18
4 PM Fri 73 74 W 7 12036 10653 6053 Blue 15
5 PM Fri 70 70 NW 5 10295 8055 3455 Blue 11
6 PM Fri 66 66 NW 5 7725 6547 1947 Blue 7
7 PM Fri 62 62 NW 5 6335 5000 400 Blue 3
8 PM Fri 59 59 NW 5 5005 4600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 57 57 NW 5 3483 4600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 56 56 NW 5 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 55 55 N 7 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 54 54 N 7 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 53 53 N 7 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 52 52 N 7 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 52 52 N 7 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 51 51 N 7 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 50 50 N 7 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 48 48 N 7 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 48 48 N 7 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 50 50 N 7 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 55 56 N 7 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 61 63 N 7 6574 5917 1317 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 67 70 W 7 10295 8055 3455 Blue 11
12 Noon Sat 70 74 W 7 12036 10653 6053 Blue 15
1 PM Sat 72 76 W 7 13581 11513 6913 Blue 17
2 PM Sat 72 76 W 7 13581 11513 6913 Blue 17
3 PM Sat 72 75 W 7 12461 11087 6487 Blue 16
4 PM Sat 71 72 W 7 11183 9043 4443 Blue 13
5 PM Sat 70 70 NW 5 10295 8055 3455 Blue 11
6 PM Sat 67 67 NW 5 8099 6932 2332 Blue 8
7 PM Sat 63 63 NW 5 6574 5917 1317 Blue 4
8 PM Sat 59 59 NW 5 5005 4600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 57 57 NW 5 3483 4600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 56 56 NW 5 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 56 56 N 7 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 56 56 N 7 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 55 55 N 7 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 55 55 N 7 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 54 54 N 7 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 54 54 N 7 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 53 53 NE 6 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 51 51 NE 6 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 51 51 NE 6 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 53 53 NE 6 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 57 57 NE 6 3483 4600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 62 63 NE 6 6574 5917 1317 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 67 70 SW 6 10295 8055 3455 Blue 11
12 Noon Sun 69 72 SW 6 11183 9043 4443 Blue 13
1 PM Sun 70 73 SW 6 11614 10127 5527 Blue 14
2 PM Sun 70 73 SW 6 11614 10127 5527 Blue 14
3 PM Sun 70 72 SW 6 11183 9043 4443 Blue 13
4 PM Sun 69 70 SW 6 10295 8055 3455 Blue 11
5 PM Sun 67 67 SW 6 8099 6932 2332 Blue 8
6 PM Sun 64 64 SW 6 6963 6120 1520 Blue 5
7 PM Sun 61 61 SW 6 6131 4600 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sun 57 57 SW 6 3483 4600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 56 56 SW 6 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 55 55 SW 6 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 55 55 E 6 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 55 55 E 6 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 54 54 E 6 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 54 54 E 6 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 53 53 E 6 2661 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 51 51 E 6 2661 4600 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com