Detailed Predictions for: Dunlap
Launch Altitude (f): 4600
LZ Altitude (f): 2200
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

24 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 71 71 E 5 4214 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 71 71 E 5 4214 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 70 70 E 5 4190 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 73 73 SE 5 4632 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 73 75 SW 3 5261 4600 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 76 80 SW 5 7908 6200 1600 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 78 84 SW 6 8495 8003 3403 Blue 10
12 Noon Sat 79 86 SW 6 8949 8262 3662 Blue 12
1 PM Sat 81 89 SW 7 9843 8906 4306 Blue 15
2 PM Sat 82 88 SW 7 9547 8671 4071 Blue 14
3 PM Sat 82 87 W 7 9249 8468 3868 Blue 13
4 PM Sat 82 86 W 6 8949 8262 3662 Blue 12
5 PM Sat 82 84 W 6 8495 8003 3403 Blue 10
6 PM Sat 81 81 W 6 8015 7539 2939 Blue 7
7 PM Sat 79 79 W 5 7800 5729 1129 Blue 5
8 PM Sat 77 77 NW 3 6227 4837 237 Blue 3
9 PM Sat 74 74 NE 5 4840 4600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 73 73 NE 5 4632 4600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 73 73 E 5 4632 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 74 74 SE 6 4840 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 73 73 E 6 4632 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 73 73 E 6 4632 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 72 72 NE 6 4423 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 72 72 E 6 4423 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 71 71 E 6 4214 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 71 71 E 6 4214 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 71 71 E 6 4214 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 73 73 S 5 4632 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 74 76 SW 3 5749 4630 30 Blue 2
10 AM Sun 76 80 SW 5 7908 6200 1600 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 79 85 SW 6 8695 8110 3510 Blue 11
12 Noon Sun 81 88 SW 6 9547 8671 4071 Blue 14
1 PM Sun 82 90 SW 6 10137 9203 4603 Blue 16
2 PM Sun 82 88 W 7 9547 8671 4071 Blue 14
3 PM Sun 83 88 W 7 9547 8671 4071 Blue 14
4 PM Sun 83 86 W 7 8949 8262 3662 Blue 12
5 PM Sun 83 85 W 6 8695 8110 3510 Blue 11
6 PM Sun 82 83 W 6 8287 7896 3296 Blue 9
7 PM Sun 80 80 W 6 7908 6200 1600 Blue 6
8 PM Sun 78 78 W 6 7598 5247 647 Blue 4
9 PM Sun 76 76 W 6 5749 4630 30 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 75 75 W 6 5261 4600 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sun 74 74 NE 6 4840 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 73 73 NE 6 4632 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 73 73 NE 6 4632 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 73 73 NE 6 4632 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 73 73 NE 6 4632 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 73 73 NE 6 4632 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 73 73 E 6 4632 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 73 73 E 6 4632 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 73 73 E 6 4632 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 74 74 NE 3 4840 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 75 77 NE 3 6227 4837 237 Blue 3
10 AM Mon 77 81 NE 3 8015 7539 2939 Blue 7
11 AM Mon 79 84 SW 6 8495 8003 3403 Blue 10
12 Noon Mon 81 87 SW 6 9249 8468 3868 Blue 13
1 PM Mon 82 88 SW 6 9547 8671 4071 Blue 14
2 PM Mon 83 87 W 7 9249 8468 3868 Blue 13
3 PM Mon 84 87 W 7 9249 8468 3868 Blue 13
4 PM Mon 84 86 W 7 8949 8262 3662 Blue 12
5 PM Mon 84 84 W 6 8495 8003 3403 Blue 10
6 PM Mon 83 83 W 6 8287 7896 3296 Blue 9
7 PM Mon 81 81 W 6 8015 7539 2939 Blue 7
8 PM Mon 79 79 W 5 7800 5729 1129 Blue 5
9 PM Mon 77 77 W 5 6227 4837 237 Blue 3
10 PM Mon 76 76 W 5 5749 4630 30 Blue 2
11 PM Mon 75 75 NE 5 5261 4600 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Tue 75 75 NE 5 5261 4600 0 Blue 1
1 AM Tue 75 75 NE 5 5261 4600 0 Blue 1
2 AM Tue 75 75 NE 6 5261 4600 0 Blue 1
3 AM Tue 75 75 NE 6 5261 4600 0 Blue 1
4 AM Tue 74 74 NE 6 4840 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 74 74 NE 6 4840 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 74 74 NE 6 4840 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 75 75 NE 6 5261 4600 0 Blue 1
8 AM Tue 76 76 E 3 5749 4630 30 Blue 2
9 AM Tue 78 80 E 3 7908 6200 1600 Blue 6
10 AM Tue 79 83 E 3 8287 7896 3296 Blue 9
11 AM Tue 81 85 SW 5 8695 8110 3510 Blue 11
12 Noon Tue 82 87 SW 5 9249 8468 3868 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 83 89 SW 5 9843 8906 4306 Blue 15
2 PM Tue 84 90 W 7 10137 9203 4603 Blue 16
3 PM Tue 85 90 W 7 10137 9203 4603 Blue 16
4 PM Tue 86 89 W 7 9843 8906 4306 Blue 15
5 PM Tue 86 88 W 6 9547 8671 4071 Blue 14
6 PM Tue 85 85 W 6 8695 8110 3510 Blue 11
7 PM Tue 82 82 W 6 8123 7789 3189 Blue 8
8 PM Tue 80 80 W 5 7908 6200 1600 Blue 6
9 PM Tue 78 78 W 5 7598 5247 647 Blue 4
10 PM Tue 77 77 W 5 6227 4837 237 Blue 3
11 PM Tue 76 76 NE 5 5749 4630 30 Blue 2
12 Midnight Wed 75 75 NE 5 5261 4600 0 Blue 1
1 AM Wed 75 75 NE 5 5261 4600 0 Blue 1
2 AM Wed 75 75 E 6 5261 4600 0 Blue 1
3 AM Wed 75 75 E 6 5261 4600 0 Blue 1
4 AM Wed 75 75 E 6 5261 4600 0 Blue 1
5 AM Wed 75 75 E 6 5261 4600 0 Blue 1
6 AM Wed 75 75 E 6 5261 4600 0 Blue 1
7 AM Wed 75 75 E 6 5261 4600 0 Blue 1
8 AM Wed 76 76 E 5 5749 4630 30 Blue 2
9 AM Wed 77 79 E 5 7800 5729 1129 Blue 5
10 AM Wed 79 83 E 5 8287 7896 3296 Blue 9
11 AM Wed 81 85 SW 6 8695 8110 3510 Blue 11
12 Noon Wed 82 87 SW 6 9249 8468 3868 Blue 13
1 PM Wed 83 88 SW 6 9547 8671 4071 Blue 14
2 PM Wed 84 89 SW 7 9843 8906 4306 Blue 15
3 PM Wed 85 89 SW 7 9843 8906 4306 Blue 15
4 PM Wed 85 88 SW 7 9547 8671 4071 Blue 14
5 PM Wed 85 87 W 7 9249 8468 3868 Blue 13
6 PM Wed 83 83 W 7 8287 7896 3296 Blue 9
7 PM Wed 81 81 W 7 8015 7539 2939 Blue 7
8 PM Wed 79 79 W 5 7800 5729 1129 Blue 5
9 PM Wed 77 77 W 5 6227 4837 237 Blue 3
10 PM Wed 76 76 W 5 5749 4630 30 Blue 2
11 PM Wed 75 75 E 5 5261 4600 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 74 74 E 5 4840 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 73 73 E 5 4632 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 73 73 E 6 4632 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 72 72 E 6 4423 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 72 72 E 6 4423 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 72 72 E 6 4423 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 72 72 E 6 4423 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 72 72 E 6 4423 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 73 73 S 5 4632 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 74 76 S 5 5749 4630 30 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 76 80 S 5 7908 6200 1600 Blue 6
11 AM Thu 77 82 SW 6 8123 7789 3189 Blue 8
12 Noon Thu 78 84 SW 6 8495 8003 3403 Blue 10
1 PM Thu 79 85 SW 6 8695 8110 3510 Blue 11
2 PM Thu 80 86 W 8 8949 8262 3662 Blue 12
3 PM Thu 81 86 W 8 8949 8262 3662 Blue 12
4 PM Thu 81 84 W 8 8495 8003 3403 Blue 10
5 PM Thu 81 83 W 6 8287 7896 3296 Blue 9
6 PM Thu 80 80 W 6 7908 6200 1600 Blue 6
7 PM Thu 78 78 W 6 7598 5247 647 Blue 4
8 PM Thu 76 76 W 5 5749 4630 30 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 74 74 W 5 4840 4600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 73 73 W 5 4632 4600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 72 72 E 5 4423 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 71 71 E 5 4214 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 71 71 E 5 4214 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 71 71 E 6 4214 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 71 71 E 6 4214 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 71 71 E 6 4214 4600 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com