Detailed Predictions for: Dunlap
Launch Altitude (f): 4600
LZ Altitude (f): 2200
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

16 FEB 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sat 29 29 E 5 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 29 29 E 5 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 29 29 E 5 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 29 29 SE 3 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 30 30 SE 3 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 32 32 SE 3 4756 4600 0 White 0
10 AM Sat 34 34 W 5 5201 4600 0 White 2
11 AM Sat 34 34 W 5 5201 4600 0 White 2
12 Noon Sat 35 35 W 5 5422 4895 295 White 3
1 PM Sat 34 34 W 7 5201 4600 0 White 2
2 PM Sat 34 34 W 7 5201 4600 0 White 2
3 PM Sat 34 34 W 7 5201 4600 0 White 2
4 PM Sat 34 34 W 7 5201 4600 0 White 2
5 PM Sat 32 32 W 7 4756 4600 0 White 0
6 PM Sat 30 30 W 7 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 30 30 W 6 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 30 30 W 6 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 30 30 W 6 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 30 30 SW 5 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 30 30 SW 5 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 29 29 SW 5 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 28 28 S 5 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 28 28 S 5 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 28 28 S 5 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 29 29 SE 5 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 29 29 SE 5 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 27 27 SE 5 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 27 27 SW 7 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 28 28 SW 7 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 30 30 SW 7 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 32 32 SW 7 4756 4600 0 White 0
11 AM Sun 32 32 SW 7 4756 4600 0 White 0
12 Noon Sun 32 32 SW 7 4756 4600 0 White 0
1 PM Sun 32 32 W 6 4756 4600 0 White 0
2 PM Sun 32 32 W 6 4756 4600 0 White 0
3 PM Sun 32 32 W 6 4756 4600 0 White 0
4 PM Sun 31 31 W 6 4353 4600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 30 30 W 6 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 29 29 W 6 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 28 28 W 6 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 28 28 W 6 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 27 27 W 6 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 27 27 E 6 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 26 26 E 6 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 26 26 E 6 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 25 25 E 6 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 25 25 E 6 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 24 24 E 6 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 24 24 NE 6 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 23 23 NE 6 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 23 23 NE 6 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 23 23 NE 6 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 26 26 NE 6 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 30 31 NE 6 4353 4600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 34 35 SW 6 5422 4895 295 White 3
11 AM Mon 35 37 SW 6 5863 5556 956 White 5
12 Noon Mon 35 37 W 6 5863 5556 956 White 5
1 PM Mon 35 37 W 6 5863 5556 956 White 5
2 PM Mon 35 37 W 6 5863 5556 956 White 5
3 PM Mon 34 35 W 6 5422 4895 295 White 3
4 PM Mon 33 33 W 6 4980 4600 0 White 1
5 PM Mon 32 32 W 6 4756 4600 0 White 0
6 PM Mon 30 30 NW 5 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 29 29 NW 5 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 28 28 N 5 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 28 28 NE 6 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 27 27 E 6 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 26 26 E 6 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 26 26 NE 7 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 25 25 NE 7 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 25 25 NE 7 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 25 25 NE 7 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 25 25 NE 7 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 24 24 NE 7 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 24 24 NE 6 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 25 25 NE 6 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 28 28 N 6 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 33 34 NW 6 5201 4600 0 White 2
10 AM Tue 36 38 W 6 6083 5882 1282 White 6
11 AM Tue 37 40 W 6 6517 6517 1917 White 8
12 Noon Tue 37 40 SW 6 6517 6517 1917 White 8
1 PM Tue 37 40 SW 6 6517 6517 1917 White 8
2 PM Tue 37 39 W 5 6300 6300 1700 White 7
3 PM Tue 37 38 NW 3 6083 5882 1282 White 6
4 PM Tue 36 36 N 1 5642 5227 627 White 4
5 PM Tue 35 35 N 1 5422 4895 295 White 3
6 PM Tue 33 33 N 1 4980 4600 0 White 1
7 PM Tue 31 31 N 1 4353 4600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 30 30 N 1 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 29 29 N 1 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 28 28 NE 8 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 27 27 NE 8 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 27 27 NE 8 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 27 27 NE 8 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 27 27 NE 8 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 28 28 NE 8 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 28 28 E 5 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 27 27 E 5 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 27 27 E 5 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 27 27 E 5 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 30 30 E 5 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 34 34 E 5 5201 4600 0 White 2
10 AM Wed 37 39 SW 6 6300 6300 1700 White 7
11 AM Wed 38 40 SW 6 6517 6517 1917 White 8
12 Noon Wed 38 41 SW 6 6734 6734 2134 White 9
1 PM Wed 38 40 SW 6 6517 6517 1917 White 8
2 PM Wed 38 40 SW 6 6517 6517 1917 White 8
3 PM Wed 37 38 SW 6 6083 5882 1282 White 6
4 PM Wed 36 36 SE 2 5642 5227 627 White 4
5 PM Wed 35 35 SE 2 5422 4895 295 White 3
6 PM Wed 33 33 SE 2 4980 4600 0 White 1
7 PM Wed 32 32 SE 2 4756 4600 0 White 0
8 PM Wed 32 32 SE 2 4756 4600 0 White 0
9 PM Wed 32 32 SE 2 4756 4600 0 White 0
10 PM Wed 32 32 E 8 4756 4600 0 White 0
11 PM Wed 32 32 E 8 4756 4600 0 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 31 31 E 8 4353 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 31 31 E 8 4353 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 31 31 E 8 4353 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 31 31 E 8 4353 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 31 31 E 8 4353 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 30 30 E 8 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 29 29 E 8 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 29 29 E 8 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 30 30 E 8 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 32 32 E 8 4756 4600 0 White 0
10 AM Thu 33 33 SW 8 4980 4600 0 White 1
11 AM Thu 33 34 SW 8 5201 4600 0 White 2
12 Noon Thu 33 34 SW 8 5201 4600 0 White 2
1 PM Thu 33 34 SW 8 5201 4600 0 White 2
2 PM Thu 33 33 SW 8 4980 4600 0 White 1
3 PM Thu 33 33 SW 8 4980 4600 0 White 1
4 PM Thu 32 32 W 8 4756 4600 0 White 0
5 PM Thu 31 31 W 8 4353 4600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 30 30 W 8 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 29 29 W 8 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 29 29 W 8 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 28 28 W 8 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 28 28 E 8 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 28 28 E 8 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 27 27 E 8 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 27 27 E 8 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 27 27 E 8 4186 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 26 26 E 8 4186 4600 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com