Detailed Predictions for: Dunlap
Launch Altitude (f): 4600
LZ Altitude (f): 2200
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

19 JUN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 69 69 E 5 7182 6442 1842 Blue 7
6 AM Tue 68 68 E 5 6789 6275 1675 Blue 6
7 AM Tue 69 69 E 5 7182 6442 1842 Blue 7
8 AM Tue 70 71 S 5 7402 6776 2176 Blue 9
9 AM Tue 71 74 S 5 7612 7396 2796 Blue 12
10 AM Tue 73 78 S 5 7891 7674 3074 Blue 16
11 AM Tue 75 82 SW 6 8443 7953 3353 Blue 20
12 Noon Tue 76 84 SW 6 8823 8241 3641 Blue 22
1 PM Tue 78 87 SW 6 9505 8797 4197 Blue 25
2 PM Tue 80 88 SW 7 9847 8985 4385 Blue 26
3 PM Tue 83 90 SW 7 10670 9449 4849 Blue 28
4 PM Tue 84 89 SW 7 10185 9174 4574 Blue 27
5 PM Tue 85 88 NW 8 9847 8985 4385 Blue 26
6 PM Tue 83 84 NW 8 8823 8241 3641 Blue 22
7 PM Tue 80 80 NW 8 8111 7813 3213 Blue 18
8 PM Tue 77 77 NW 5 7821 7604 3004 Blue 15
9 PM Tue 75 75 NW 5 7681 7465 2865 Blue 13
10 PM Tue 73 73 NW 5 7542 7326 2726 Blue 11
11 PM Tue 73 73 E 5 7542 7326 2726 Blue 11
12 Midnight Wed 72 72 E 5 7472 7147 2547 Blue 10
1 AM Wed 72 72 E 5 7472 7147 2547 Blue 10
2 AM Wed 72 72 E 5 7472 7147 2547 Blue 10
3 AM Wed 70 70 E 5 7333 6610 2010 Blue 8
4 AM Wed 68 68 E 5 6789 6275 1675 Blue 6
5 AM Wed 67 67 E 5 6621 6108 1508 Blue 5
6 AM Wed 68 68 E 5 6789 6275 1675 Blue 6
7 AM Wed 69 69 E 5 7182 6442 1842 Blue 7
8 AM Wed 71 72 E 5 7472 7147 2547 Blue 10
9 AM Wed 74 77 E 5 7821 7604 3004 Blue 15
10 AM Wed 76 81 E 5 8260 7883 3283 Blue 19
11 AM Wed 78 85 W 6 9013 8418 3818 Blue 23
12 Noon Wed 80 89 W 6 10185 9174 4574 Blue 27
1 PM Wed 83 92 W 6 11640 10123 5523 Blue 30
2 PM Wed 86 94 W 6 12264 11091 6491 Blue 32
3 PM Wed 88 95 W 6 12504 11544 6944 Blue 33
4 PM Wed 90 95 W 6 12504 11544 6944 Blue 33
5 PM Wed 91 94 W 6 12264 11091 6491 Blue 32
6 PM Wed 90 91 W 6 11205 9788 5188 Blue 29
7 PM Wed 88 88 W 6 9847 8985 4385 Blue 26
8 PM Wed 86 86 W 6 9203 8607 4007 Blue 24
9 PM Wed 83 83 W 6 8633 8094 3494 Blue 21
10 PM Wed 81 81 W 6 8260 7883 3283 Blue 19
11 PM Wed 79 79 NE 5 7963 7744 3144 Blue 17
12 Midnight Thu 78 78 NE 5 7891 7674 3074 Blue 16
1 AM Thu 76 76 NE 5 7751 7535 2935 Blue 14
2 AM Thu 75 75 NE 5 7681 7465 2865 Blue 13
3 AM Thu 72 72 NE 5 7472 7147 2547 Blue 10
4 AM Thu 69 69 NE 5 7182 6442 1842 Blue 7
5 AM Thu 68 68 N 5 6789 6275 1675 Blue 6
6 AM Thu 69 69 N 5 7182 6442 1842 Blue 7
7 AM Thu 71 71 N 5 7402 6776 2176 Blue 9
8 AM Thu 73 74 N 5 7612 7396 2796 Blue 12
9 AM Thu 75 78 N 5 7891 7674 3074 Blue 16
10 AM Thu 77 82 N 5 8443 7953 3353 Blue 20
11 AM Thu 79 86 W 6 9203 8607 4007 Blue 24
12 Noon Thu 81 89 W 6 10185 9174 4574 Blue 27
1 PM Thu 84 93 W 6 12023 10562 5962 Blue 31
2 PM Thu 88 96 W 6 12743 11952 7352 Blue 34
3 PM Thu 91 98 W 6 13218 12442 7842 Blue 36
4 PM Thu 93 98 W 6 13218 12442 7842 Blue 36
5 PM Thu 93 96 W 8 12743 11952 7352 Blue 34
6 PM Thu 91 92 W 8 11640 10123 5523 Blue 30
7 PM Thu 87 87 W 8 9505 8797 4197 Blue 25
8 PM Thu 83 83 W 8 8633 8094 3494 Blue 21
9 PM Thu 79 79 W 8 7963 7744 3144 Blue 17
10 PM Thu 76 76 W 8 7751 7535 2935 Blue 14
11 PM Thu 74 74 E 5 7612 7396 2796 Blue 12
12 Midnight Fri 72 72 E 5 7472 7147 2547 Blue 10
1 AM Fri 71 71 E 5 7402 6776 2176 Blue 9
2 AM Fri 70 70 E 5 7333 6610 2010 Blue 8
3 AM Fri 69 69 E 5 7182 6442 1842 Blue 7
4 AM Fri 67 67 E 5 6621 6108 1508 Blue 5
5 AM Fri 66 66 N 3 6453 5768 1168 Blue 4
6 AM Fri 67 67 N 3 6621 6108 1508 Blue 5
7 AM Fri 69 69 N 3 7182 6442 1842 Blue 7
8 AM Fri 72 73 N 3 7542 7326 2726 Blue 11
9 AM Fri 76 79 N 3 7963 7744 3144 Blue 17
10 AM Fri 80 85 N 3 9013 8418 3818 Blue 23
11 AM Fri 84 91 SW 6 11205 9788 5188 Blue 29
12 Noon Fri 87 95 SW 6 12504 11544 6944 Blue 33
1 PM Fri 90 98 SW 6 13218 12442 7842 Blue 36
2 PM Fri 92 100 SW 6 13714 12915 8315 Blue 38
3 PM Fri 94 101 SW 6 14698 13150 8550 Blue 39
4 PM Fri 94 99 SW 6 13453 12679 8079 Blue 37
5 PM Fri 93 96 W 7 12743 11952 7352 Blue 34
6 PM Fri 92 93 W 7 12023 10562 5962 Blue 31
7 PM Fri 90 90 W 7 10670 9449 4849 Blue 28
8 PM Fri 87 87 W 7 9505 8797 4197 Blue 25
9 PM Fri 83 83 W 7 8633 8094 3494 Blue 21
10 PM Fri 80 80 W 7 8111 7813 3213 Blue 18
11 PM Fri 77 77 NE 5 7821 7604 3004 Blue 15
12 Midnight Sat 74 74 NE 5 7612 7396 2796 Blue 12
1 AM Sat 71 71 NE 5 7402 6776 2176 Blue 9
2 AM Sat 70 70 NE 5 7333 6610 2010 Blue 8
3 AM Sat 68 68 NE 5 6789 6275 1675 Blue 6
4 AM Sat 68 68 NE 5 6789 6275 1675 Blue 6
5 AM Sat 68 68 NE 6 6789 6275 1675 Blue 6
6 AM Sat 70 70 NE 6 7333 6610 2010 Blue 8
7 AM Sat 72 72 NE 6 7472 7147 2547 Blue 10
8 AM Sat 74 75 NE 6 7681 7465 2865 Blue 13
9 AM Sat 77 80 NE 6 8111 7813 3213 Blue 18
10 AM Sat 80 85 NE 6 9013 8418 3818 Blue 23
11 AM Sat 84 91 SW 5 11205 9788 5188 Blue 29
12 Noon Sat 86 94 SW 5 12264 11091 6491 Blue 32
1 PM Sat 89 98 SW 5 13218 12442 7842 Blue 36
2 PM Sat 91 99 SW 5 13453 12679 8079 Blue 37
3 PM Sat 92 99 SW 5 13453 12679 8079 Blue 37
4 PM Sat 93 98 SW 5 13218 12442 7842 Blue 36
5 PM Sat 93 96 W 7 12743 11952 7352 Blue 34
6 PM Sat 91 92 W 7 11640 10123 5523 Blue 30
7 PM Sat 89 89 W 7 10185 9174 4574 Blue 27
8 PM Sat 86 86 W 7 9203 8607 4007 Blue 24
9 PM Sat 82 82 W 7 8443 7953 3353 Blue 20
10 PM Sat 79 79 W 7 7963 7744 3144 Blue 17
11 PM Sat 76 76 NE 5 7751 7535 2935 Blue 14
12 Midnight Sun 73 73 NE 5 7542 7326 2726 Blue 11
1 AM Sun 71 71 NE 5 7402 6776 2176 Blue 9
2 AM Sun 70 70 NE 5 7333 6610 2010 Blue 8
3 AM Sun 69 69 NE 5 7182 6442 1842 Blue 7
4 AM Sun 69 69 NE 5 7182 6442 1842 Blue 7
5 AM Sun 70 70 NE 6 7333 6610 2010 Blue 8
6 AM Sun 71 71 NE 6 7402 6776 2176 Blue 9
7 AM Sun 73 73 NE 6 7542 7326 2726 Blue 11
8 AM Sun 76 77 NE 6 7821 7604 3004 Blue 15
9 AM Sun 79 82 NE 6 8443 7953 3353 Blue 20
10 AM Sun 82 87 NE 6 9505 8797 4197 Blue 25
11 AM Sun 85 92 SW 6 11640 10123 5523 Blue 30
12 Noon Sun 88 96 SW 6 12743 11952 7352 Blue 34
1 PM Sun 90 98 SW 6 13218 12442 7842 Blue 36
2 PM Sun 92 100 SW 6 13714 12915 8315 Blue 38
3 PM Sun 94 100 SW 6 13714 12915 8315 Blue 38
4 PM Sun 94 99 SW 6 13453 12679 8079 Blue 37
5 PM Sun 94 97 W 7 12981 12203 7603 Blue 35
6 PM Sun 92 93 W 7 12023 10562 5962 Blue 31
7 PM Sun 90 90 W 7 10670 9449 4849 Blue 28
8 PM Sun 87 87 W 7 9505 8797 4197 Blue 25
9 PM Sun 84 84 W 7 8823 8241 3641 Blue 22
10 PM Sun 81 81 W 7 8260 7883 3283 Blue 19
11 PM Sun 77 77 NE 3 7821 7604 3004 Blue 15
12 Midnight Mon 75 75 NE 3 7681 7465 2865 Blue 13
1 AM Mon 73 73 NE 3 7542 7326 2726 Blue 11
2 AM Mon 71 71 NE 3 7402 6776 2176 Blue 9
3 AM Mon 70 70 NE 3 7333 6610 2010 Blue 8
4 AM Mon 70 70 NE 3 7333 6610 2010 Blue 8

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com