Detailed Predictions for: Dunlap
Launch Altitude (f): 4600
LZ Altitude (f): 2200
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

18 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 49 49 NE 5 3602 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 49 49 E 5 3602 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 47 47 E 5 3602 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 48 48 E 1 3602 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 50 50 S 5 3602 4600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 50 52 SW 5 4508 4600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 53 56 W 5 5704 5284 684 Blue 3
12 Noon Fri 55 58 SW 5 6068 5515 915 Blue 5
1 PM Fri 57 61 SW 6 6363 6058 1458 Blue 8
2 PM Fri 57 60 W 7 6284 5878 1278 Blue 7
3 PM Fri 56 58 W 6 6068 5515 915 Blue 5
4 PM Fri 56 57 W 5 5886 5393 793 Blue 4
5 PM Fri 55 55 W 6 5522 4600 0 Blue 2
6 PM Fri 52 52 NW 2 4508 4600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 50 50 N 3 3602 4600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 49 49 NE 5 3602 4600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 48 48 NE 3 3602 4600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 48 48 NE 3 3602 4600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 48 48 E 3 3602 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 48 48 E 3 3602 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 47 47 NE 3 3602 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 48 48 NE 3 3602 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 49 49 NE 5 3602 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 49 49 NE 5 3602 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 48 48 NE 5 3602 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 48 48 NE 5 3602 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 47 47 NE 5 3602 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 49 49 NE 3 3602 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 51 52 NW 2 4508 4600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 51 53 W 3 5288 4600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 54 57 SW 5 5886 5393 793 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 57 61 SW 5 6363 6058 1458 Blue 8
1 PM Sat 59 63 SW 5 6867 6279 1679 Blue 10
2 PM Sat 59 63 W 8 6867 6279 1679 Blue 10
3 PM Sat 58 61 W 8 6363 6058 1458 Blue 8
4 PM Sat 58 59 W 8 6205 5697 1097 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 57 57 NW 5 5886 5393 793 Blue 4
6 PM Sat 54 54 NW 5 5396 4600 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sat 52 52 NW 5 4508 4600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 51 51 NE 6 3950 4600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 50 50 NE 6 3602 4600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 50 50 NE 6 3602 4600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 50 50 N 5 3602 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 50 50 N 5 3602 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 49 49 N 5 3602 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 50 50 NE 6 3602 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 51 51 NE 6 3950 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 51 51 NE 6 3950 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 50 50 E 5 3602 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 50 50 E 5 3602 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 49 49 E 5 3602 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 50 50 E 5 3602 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 52 53 E 5 5288 4600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 52 54 E 5 5396 4600 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 55 58 SW 6 6068 5515 915 Blue 5
12 Noon Sun 57 61 SW 6 6363 6058 1458 Blue 8
1 PM Sun 59 63 SW 6 6867 6279 1679 Blue 10
2 PM Sun 59 62 W 6 6602 6201 1601 Blue 9
3 PM Sun 58 60 W 6 6284 5878 1278 Blue 7
4 PM Sun 58 59 W 6 6205 5697 1097 Blue 6
5 PM Sun 58 58 W 5 6068 5515 915 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 55 55 W 5 5522 4600 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 54 54 W 5 5396 4600 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 54 54 NE 3 5396 4600 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sun 53 53 NE 3 5288 4600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 52 52 NE 3 4508 4600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 52 52 E 3 4508 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 53 53 E 3 5288 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 52 52 E 3 4508 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 53 53 E 6 5288 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 53 53 E 6 5288 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 53 53 E 6 5288 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 52 52 NE 5 4508 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 53 53 NE 5 5288 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 52 52 NE 5 4508 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 54 54 E 5 5396 4600 0 Blue 1
9 AM Mon 57 58 E 5 6068 5515 915 Blue 5
10 AM Mon 57 59 E 5 6205 5697 1097 Blue 6
11 AM Mon 61 64 SW 3 7131 6358 1758 Blue 11
12 Noon Mon 64 68 SW 3 8163 7368 2768 Blue 15
1 PM Mon 67 71 SW 3 9537 8134 3534 Blue 18
2 PM Mon 67 71 W 5 9537 8134 3534 Blue 18
3 PM Mon 66 69 W 5 8440 7626 3026 Blue 16
4 PM Mon 66 67 W 5 7913 7107 2507 Blue 14
5 PM Mon 65 65 W 3 7393 6583 1983 Blue 12
6 PM Mon 61 61 W 3 6363 6058 1458 Blue 8
7 PM Mon 59 59 W 3 6205 5697 1097 Blue 6
8 PM Mon 59 59 E 3 6205 5697 1097 Blue 6
9 PM Mon 57 57 E 3 5886 5393 793 Blue 4
10 PM Mon 57 57 E 3 5886 5393 793 Blue 4
11 PM Mon 57 57 NE 6 5886 5393 793 Blue 4
12 Midnight Tue 57 57 NE 6 5886 5393 793 Blue 4
1 AM Tue 56 56 NE 6 5704 5284 684 Blue 3
2 AM Tue 57 57 E 6 5886 5393 793 Blue 4
3 AM Tue 58 58 E 6 6068 5515 915 Blue 5
4 AM Tue 58 58 E 6 6068 5515 915 Blue 5
5 AM Tue 57 57 E 6 5886 5393 793 Blue 4
6 AM Tue 57 57 E 6 5886 5393 793 Blue 4
7 AM Tue 56 56 E 6 5704 5284 684 Blue 3
8 AM Tue 58 58 E 6 6068 5515 915 Blue 5
9 AM Tue 61 62 E 6 6602 6201 1601 Blue 9
10 AM Tue 61 63 E 6 6867 6279 1679 Blue 10
11 AM Tue 65 68 W 3 8163 7368 2768 Blue 15
12 Noon Tue 68 72 W 3 10061 8366 3766 Blue 19
1 PM Tue 71 75 W 3 10996 9967 5367 Blue 22
2 PM Tue 71 75 W 6 10996 9967 5367 Blue 22
3 PM Tue 69 72 W 6 10061 8366 3766 Blue 19
4 PM Tue 69 70 W 6 8997 7884 3284 Blue 17
5 PM Tue 68 68 W 3 8163 7368 2768 Blue 15
6 PM Tue 63 63 W 3 6867 6279 1679 Blue 10
7 PM Tue 60 60 W 3 6284 5878 1278 Blue 7
8 PM Tue 59 59 NE 3 6205 5697 1097 Blue 6
9 PM Tue 57 57 NE 3 5886 5393 793 Blue 4
10 PM Tue 57 57 NE 3 5886 5393 793 Blue 4
11 PM Tue 57 57 NE 5 5886 5393 793 Blue 4
12 Midnight Wed 57 57 NE 5 5886 5393 793 Blue 4
1 AM Wed 57 57 NE 5 5886 5393 793 Blue 4
2 AM Wed 58 58 NE 6 6068 5515 915 Blue 5
3 AM Wed 59 59 NE 6 6205 5697 1097 Blue 6
4 AM Wed 59 59 NE 6 6205 5697 1097 Blue 6
5 AM Wed 57 57 E 6 5886 5393 793 Blue 4
6 AM Wed 57 57 E 6 5886 5393 793 Blue 4
7 AM Wed 56 56 E 6 5704 5284 684 Blue 3
8 AM Wed 58 58 E 5 6068 5515 915 Blue 5
9 AM Wed 60 61 E 5 6363 6058 1458 Blue 8
10 AM Wed 60 62 E 5 6602 6201 1601 Blue 9
11 AM Wed 63 66 SW 3 7654 6846 2246 Blue 13
12 Noon Wed 67 71 SW 3 9537 8134 3534 Blue 18
1 PM Wed 69 73 SW 3 10397 8916 4316 Blue 20
2 PM Wed 69 73 W 6 10397 8916 4316 Blue 20
3 PM Wed 68 71 W 6 9537 8134 3534 Blue 18
4 PM Wed 68 69 W 6 8440 7626 3026 Blue 16
5 PM Wed 66 66 W 5 7654 6846 2246 Blue 13
6 PM Wed 62 62 W 5 6602 6201 1601 Blue 9
7 PM Wed 59 59 W 5 6205 5697 1097 Blue 6
8 PM Wed 59 59 NE 5 6205 5697 1097 Blue 6
9 PM Wed 57 57 NE 5 5886 5393 793 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 57 57 NE 5 5886 5393 793 Blue 4
11 PM Wed 57 57 E 5 5886 5393 793 Blue 4
12 Midnight Thu 57 57 E 5 5886 5393 793 Blue 4
1 AM Thu 56 56 E 5 5704 5284 684 Blue 3
2 AM Thu 57 57 NE 6 5886 5393 793 Blue 4
3 AM Thu 59 59 NE 6 6205 5697 1097 Blue 6
4 AM Thu 58 58 NE 6 6068 5515 915 Blue 5

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com