Detailed Predictions for: Eliminator Skyport
Launch Altitude (f): 3100
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

15 JUN 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 59 59 NW 3 2695 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 58 58 NW 3 2642 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 60 60 NW 3 2771 3100 0 Blue 1
8 AM Sat 61 62 N 3 2929 3100 0 Blue 3
9 AM Sat 62 64 N 3 3064 3100 0 Blue 5
10 AM Sat 64 68 N 3 3307 3120 20 Blue 9
11 AM Sat 66 73 W 6 3830 3500 400 Blue 14
12 Noon Sat 67 75 W 6 3900 3794 694 Blue 16
1 PM Sat 68 77 W 6 3976 3864 764 Blue 18
2 PM Sat 69 77 W 10 3976 3864 764 Blue 18
3 PM Sat 70 77 W 10 3976 3864 764 Blue 18
4 PM Sat 70 75 W 10 3900 3794 694 Blue 16
5 PM Sat 69 72 W 14 3795 3402 302 Blue 13
6 PM Sat 68 69 W 14 3405 3178 78 Blue 10
7 PM Sat 67 67 W 14 3237 3100 0 Blue 8
8 PM Sat 67 67 W 12 3237 3100 0 Blue 8
9 PM Sat 66 66 W 12 3179 3100 0 Blue 7
10 PM Sat 64 64 W 12 3064 3100 0 Blue 5
11 PM Sat 63 63 NW 5 3006 3100 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sun 62 62 NW 5 2929 3100 0 Blue 3
1 AM Sun 62 62 NW 5 2929 3100 0 Blue 3
2 AM Sun 58 58 N 5 2642 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 58 58 N 5 2642 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 58 58 N 5 2642 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 58 58 NW 3 2642 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 57 57 NW 3 2590 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 59 59 NW 3 2695 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 60 61 NW 3 2850 3100 0 Blue 2
9 AM Sun 61 63 NW 3 3006 3100 0 Blue 4
10 AM Sun 63 67 NW 3 3237 3100 0 Blue 8
11 AM Sun 65 72 SW 7 3795 3402 302 Blue 13
12 Noon Sun 66 74 SW 7 3865 3615 515 Blue 15
1 PM Sun 67 76 SW 7 3935 3829 729 Blue 17
2 PM Sun 68 76 SW 8 3935 3829 729 Blue 17
3 PM Sun 69 76 SW 8 3935 3829 729 Blue 17
4 PM Sun 69 74 SW 8 3865 3615 515 Blue 15
5 PM Sun 68 71 W 8 3624 3304 204 Blue 12
6 PM Sun 67 68 W 8 3307 3120 20 Blue 9
7 PM Sun 66 66 W 8 3179 3100 0 Blue 7
8 PM Sun 66 66 W 8 3179 3100 0 Blue 7
9 PM Sun 65 65 W 8 3121 3100 0 Blue 6
10 PM Sun 64 64 W 8 3064 3100 0 Blue 5
11 PM Sun 62 62 NE 3 2929 3100 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Mon 62 62 NE 3 2929 3100 0 Blue 3
1 AM Mon 61 61 NE 3 2850 3100 0 Blue 2
2 AM Mon 58 58 NE 3 2642 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 58 58 NE 3 2642 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 57 57 NE 3 2590 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 58 58 E 3 2642 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 57 57 E 3 2590 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 59 59 E 3 2695 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 60 60 E 3 2771 3100 0 Blue 1
9 AM Mon 61 61 E 3 2850 3100 0 Blue 2
10 AM Mon 63 64 E 3 3064 3100 0 Blue 5
11 AM Mon 65 72 SW 7 3795 3402 302 Blue 13
12 Noon Mon 66 74 SW 7 3865 3615 515 Blue 15
1 PM Mon 67 75 SW 7 3900 3794 694 Blue 16
2 PM Mon 68 76 SW 7 3935 3829 729 Blue 17
3 PM Mon 69 75 SW 7 3900 3794 694 Blue 16
4 PM Mon 69 74 SW 7 3865 3615 515 Blue 15
5 PM Mon 68 71 SW 5 3624 3304 204 Blue 12
6 PM Mon 67 68 SW 5 3307 3120 20 Blue 9
7 PM Mon 67 67 SW 5 3237 3100 0 Blue 8
8 PM Mon 67 67 SW 5 3237 3100 0 Blue 8
9 PM Mon 66 66 SW 5 3179 3100 0 Blue 7
10 PM Mon 64 64 SW 5 3064 3100 0 Blue 5
11 PM Mon 63 63 E 5 3006 3100 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Tue 63 63 E 5 3006 3100 0 Blue 4
1 AM Tue 63 63 E 5 3006 3100 0 Blue 4
2 AM Tue 60 60 E 5 2771 3100 0 Blue 1
3 AM Tue 60 60 E 5 2771 3100 0 Blue 1
4 AM Tue 59 59 E 5 2695 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 60 60 E 3 2771 3100 0 Blue 1
6 AM Tue 59 59 E 3 2695 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 61 61 E 3 2850 3100 0 Blue 2
8 AM Tue 62 63 E 3 3006 3100 0 Blue 4
9 AM Tue 63 65 E 3 3121 3100 0 Blue 6
10 AM Tue 66 69 E 3 3405 3178 78 Blue 10
11 AM Tue 68 75 SW 7 3900 3794 694 Blue 16
12 Noon Tue 69 77 SW 7 3976 3864 764 Blue 18
1 PM Tue 70 78 SW 7 4442 3899 799 Blue 19
2 PM Tue 71 79 SW 7 5179 3934 834 Blue 20
3 PM Tue 72 78 SW 7 4442 3899 799 Blue 19
4 PM Tue 72 77 SW 7 3976 3864 764 Blue 18
5 PM Tue 71 74 SW 7 3865 3615 515 Blue 15
6 PM Tue 70 71 SW 7 3624 3304 204 Blue 12
7 PM Tue 70 70 SW 7 3503 3236 136 Blue 11
8 PM Tue 70 70 SW 7 3503 3236 136 Blue 11
9 PM Tue 69 69 SW 7 3405 3178 78 Blue 10
10 PM Tue 67 67 SW 7 3237 3100 0 Blue 8
11 PM Tue 66 66 W 6 3179 3100 0 Blue 7
12 Midnight Wed 65 65 W 6 3121 3100 0 Blue 6
1 AM Wed 65 65 W 6 3121 3100 0 Blue 6
2 AM Wed 62 62 W 6 2929 3100 0 Blue 3
3 AM Wed 62 62 W 6 2929 3100 0 Blue 3
4 AM Wed 61 61 W 6 2850 3100 0 Blue 2
5 AM Wed 62 62 W 6 2929 3100 0 Blue 3
6 AM Wed 61 61 W 6 2850 3100 0 Blue 2
7 AM Wed 63 63 W 6 3006 3100 0 Blue 4
8 AM Wed 64 65 W 6 3121 3100 0 Blue 6
9 AM Wed 64 66 W 6 3179 3100 0 Blue 7
10 AM Wed 67 70 W 6 3503 3236 136 Blue 11
11 AM Wed 69 76 SW 12 3935 3829 729 Blue 17
12 Noon Wed 69 77 SW 12 3976 3864 764 Blue 18
1 PM Wed 70 79 SW 12 5179 3934 834 Blue 20
2 PM Wed 71 79 SW 12 5179 3934 834 Blue 20
3 PM Wed 72 79 SW 12 5179 3934 834 Blue 20
4 PM Wed 72 77 SW 12 3976 3864 764 Blue 18
5 PM Wed 71 74 SW 14 3865 3615 515 Blue 15
6 PM Wed 70 71 SW 14 3624 3304 204 Blue 12
7 PM Wed 70 70 SW 14 3503 3236 136 Blue 11
8 PM Wed 70 70 SW 14 3503 3236 136 Blue 11
9 PM Wed 69 69 SW 14 3405 3178 78 Blue 10
10 PM Wed 67 67 SW 14 3237 3100 0 Blue 8
11 PM Wed 66 66 W 7 3179 3100 0 Blue 7
12 Midnight Thu 66 66 W 7 3179 3100 0 Blue 7
1 AM Thu 66 66 W 7 3179 3100 0 Blue 7
2 AM Thu 63 63 W 7 3006 3100 0 Blue 4
3 AM Thu 63 63 W 7 3006 3100 0 Blue 4
4 AM Thu 62 62 W 7 2929 3100 0 Blue 3
5 AM Thu 63 63 S 6 3006 3100 0 Blue 4
6 AM Thu 62 62 S 6 2929 3100 0 Blue 3
7 AM Thu 63 63 S 6 3006 3100 0 Blue 4
8 AM Thu 64 65 S 6 3121 3100 0 Blue 6
9 AM Thu 65 68 S 6 3307 3120 20 Blue 9
10 AM Thu 67 72 S 6 3795 3402 302 Blue 13
11 AM Thu 68 75 SW 14 3900 3794 694 Blue 16
12 Noon Thu 69 77 SW 14 3976 3864 764 Blue 18
1 PM Thu 69 78 SW 14 4442 3899 799 Blue 19
2 PM Thu 70 78 SW 14 4442 3899 799 Blue 19
3 PM Thu 71 78 SW 14 4442 3899 799 Blue 19
4 PM Thu 71 76 SW 14 3935 3829 729 Blue 17
5 PM Thu 70 73 W 12 3830 3500 400 Blue 14
6 PM Thu 69 70 W 12 3503 3236 136 Blue 11
7 PM Thu 69 69 W 12 3405 3178 78 Blue 10
8 PM Thu 69 69 W 12 3405 3178 78 Blue 10
9 PM Thu 68 68 W 12 3307 3120 20 Blue 9
10 PM Thu 66 66 W 12 3179 3100 0 Blue 7
11 PM Thu 65 65 W 9 3121 3100 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Fri 65 65 W 9 3121 3100 0 Blue 6
1 AM Fri 65 65 W 9 3121 3100 0 Blue 6
2 AM Fri 62 62 W 9 2929 3100 0 Blue 3
3 AM Fri 62 62 W 9 2929 3100 0 Blue 3
4 AM Fri 61 61 W 9 2850 3100 0 Blue 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com