Detailed Predictions for: Eliminator Skyport
Launch Altitude (f): 3100
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 57 57 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 58 58 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 60 60 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 62 63 NW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 63 65 NW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 65 69 NW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 66 71 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 67 74 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 68 75 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 68 74 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 68 73 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 68 71 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 66 67 NW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 64 64 NW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 61 61 NW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 59 59 NW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 58 58 NW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 57 57 NW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 56 56 N 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 55 55 N 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 54 54 N 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 54 54 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 53 53 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 52 52 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 52 52 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 53 53 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 55 55 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 57 58 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 59 61 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 61 65 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 63 68 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 64 70 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 64 70 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 65 71 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 65 70 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 65 68 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 64 65 N 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 61 61 N 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 59 59 N 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 58 58 N 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 57 57 N 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 56 56 N 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 55 55 N 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 55 55 N 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 54 54 N 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 53 53 N 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 53 53 N 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 52 52 N 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 52 52 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 53 53 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 55 55 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 57 58 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 59 61 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 60 64 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 62 67 NW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 63 69 NW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 64 70 NW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 64 70 NW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 64 69 NW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 64 67 NW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 62 63 NW 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 60 60 NW 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 58 58 NW 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 56 56 NW 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 55 55 NW 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 54 54 NW 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 54 54 N 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 53 53 N 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 52 52 N 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 51 51 N 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 51 51 N 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 50 50 N 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 50 50 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 51 51 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 54 54 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 56 57 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 58 60 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 60 64 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 62 67 N 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 63 69 N 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 64 71 N 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 65 71 N 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 65 70 N 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 65 68 N 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 63 65 NW 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 61 61 NW 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 59 59 NW 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 57 57 NW 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 56 56 NW 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 55 55 NW 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 55 55 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 54 54 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 53 53 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 52 52 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 52 52 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 51 51 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 51 51 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 52 52 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 54 54 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 57 58 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 59 61 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 61 64 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 62 67 NW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 63 69 NW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 64 70 NW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 65 71 NW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 65 70 NW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 65 68 NW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 63 64 NW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 61 61 NW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 58 58 NW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 56 56 NW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 55 55 NW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 54 54 NW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 53 53 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 52 52 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 52 52 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 51 51 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 50 50 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 50 50 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 50 50 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 52 52 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 54 54 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 57 57 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 59 61 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 61 64 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 63 66 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 64 68 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 65 69 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 66 70 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 66 69 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 65 67 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 64 65 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 62 62 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 59 59 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 57 57 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 56 56 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 55 55 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 54 54 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 53 53 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 53 53 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 52 52 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 51 51 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 51 51 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com