Detailed Predictions for: Eliminator Skyport
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.48118611111111, -119.6850861111111, 3100
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

16 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 58 58 NW 0 1 2966 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 57 57 SSW 0 0 2865 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 56 56 SSW 0 1 2763 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 55 55 NNE 0 1 2662 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 55 55 ENE 0 1 2662 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 55 55 ESE 0 1 2662 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 55 55 ESE 1 3 2662 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 55 55 ESE 2 4 2662 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 63 63 SSE 2 2 3474 3169 69 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 68 69 S 3 4 4084 3776 676 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 70 73 S 5 5 4491 4182 1082 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 75 80 SSW 5 6 6333 5154 2054 Blue 4
12 Noon Thu 77 83 SSW 5 6 7442 6294 3194 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 79 86 SW 6 7 8512 7391 4291 Blue 10
2 PM Thu 79 85 SW 7 8 8159 7030 3930 Blue 9
3 PM Thu 79 84 SW 6 8 7803 6664 3564 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 77 80 SW 6 7 6333 5154 2054 Blue 4
5 PM Thu 75 75 SW 6 7 4694 4384 1284 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 73 73 SW 4 5 4491 4182 1082 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 62 62 WSW 2 4 3372 3100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 57 57 WNW 2 5 2865 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 57 57 WNW 1 2 2865 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 57 57 WNW 0 1 2865 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 57 57 ESE 0 0 2865 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 56 56 W 0 0 2763 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 57 57 E 1 3 2865 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 56 56 SSE 1 2 2763 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 55 55 ESE 1 2 2662 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 55 55 ESE 1 3 2662 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 55 55 ESE 2 4 2662 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 55 55 ESE 3 6 2662 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 55 55 ESE 3 6 2662 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 61 61 SSE 3 4 3271 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 67 68 SSE 4 4 3982 3675 575 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 70 73 S 4 5 4491 4182 1082 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 75 80 S 4 5 6333 5154 2054 Blue 4
12 Noon Fri 77 83 SSW 5 5 7442 6294 3194 Blue 7
1 PM Fri 78 85 SSW 5 6 8159 7030 3930 Blue 9
2 PM Fri 78 84 SSW 6 6 7803 6664 3564 Blue 8
3 PM Fri 78 83 SW 6 7 7442 6294 3194 Blue 7
4 PM Fri 78 81 SW 5 6 6708 5539 2439 Blue 5
5 PM Fri 76 76 SW 5 5 4796 4486 1386 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 74 74 WSW 3 4 4592 4283 1183 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 62 62 W 2 4 3372 3100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 56 56 NW 2 4 2763 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 57 57 NNW 2 4 2865 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 57 57 NNW 1 2 2865 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 56 56 ENE 0 0 2763 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 55 55 ESE 0 1 2662 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 55 55 ENE 0 1 2662 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 55 55 E 0 1 2662 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 55 55 E 1 2 2662 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 54 54 NE 1 2 2561 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 54 54 ENE 1 3 2561 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 54 54 ENE 1 2 2561 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 54 54 NE 0 1 2561 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 62 62 SE 0 1 3372 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 68 69 S 2 2 4084 3776 676 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 71 74 SSW 3 4 4592 4283 1183 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 77 82 SSW 4 5 7077 5919 2819 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 78 84 SW 5 5 7803 6664 3564 Blue 8
1 PM Sat 79 86 SW 5 6 8512 7391 4291 Blue 10
2 PM Sat 79 85 SW 6 7 8159 7030 3930 Blue 9
3 PM Sat 79 84 SW 6 7 7803 6664 3564 Blue 8
4 PM Sat 78 81 WSW 6 7 6708 5539 2439 Blue 5
5 PM Sat 76 76 WSW 6 7 4796 4486 1386 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 74 74 WSW 5 6 4592 4283 1183 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 68 68 W 4 4 3982 3675 575 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 59 59 NW 3 8 3068 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 59 59 NW 3 6 3068 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 59 59 NW 3 6 3068 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 60 60 NNW 2 5 3169 3100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com