Detailed Predictions for: Eliminator Skyport
Launch Altitude (f): 3100
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

4 DEC 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 49 49 NE 9 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 49 49 NE 9 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 49 49 NE 9 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 49 49 NE 9 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 48 48 NE 9 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 54 54 NE 9 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 58 59 NE 9 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 63 65 NE 9 3974 3249 149 Blue 5
12 Noon Fri 65 67 NE 9 4449 3726 626 Blue 7
1 PM Fri 67 69 W 3 4921 4200 1100 Blue 9
2 PM Fri 68 69 W 3 4921 4200 1100 Blue 9
3 PM Fri 67 67 W 3 4449 3726 626 Blue 7
4 PM Fri 65 65 W 3 3974 3249 149 Blue 5
5 PM Fri 63 63 W 3 3495 3100 0 Blue 3
6 PM Fri 60 60 W 3 2336 3100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 57 57 W 3 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 55 55 W 3 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 55 55 W 3 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 54 54 NE 9 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 53 53 NE 9 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 53 53 NE 9 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 52 52 NE 7 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 52 52 NE 7 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 51 51 NE 7 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 52 52 NE 6 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 51 51 NE 6 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 51 51 NE 6 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 50 50 NE 5 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 50 50 NE 5 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 54 54 NE 5 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 57 58 S 3 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 60 62 S 3 3254 3100 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sat 62 64 S 3 3735 3100 0 Blue 4
1 PM Sat 63 65 SW 6 3974 3249 149 Blue 5
2 PM Sat 64 65 SW 6 3974 3249 149 Blue 5
3 PM Sat 63 63 SW 6 3495 3100 0 Blue 3
4 PM Sat 61 61 W 5 3013 3100 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sat 59 59 W 5 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 57 57 W 5 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 54 54 N 8 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 52 52 N 8 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 51 51 N 8 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 51 51 N 8 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 50 50 N 8 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 49 49 N 8 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 49 49 N 8 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 49 49 N 8 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 48 48 N 8 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 48 48 N 7 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 48 48 N 7 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 48 48 N 7 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 48 48 N 6 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 47 47 N 6 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 53 53 N 6 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 58 59 SE 2 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 62 63 SE 2 3495 3100 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Sun 65 67 SE 2 4449 3726 626 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 67 68 SE 2 4685 3964 864 Blue 8
2 PM Sun 68 69 SE 2 4921 4200 1100 Blue 9
3 PM Sun 67 67 SE 2 4449 3726 626 Blue 7
4 PM Sun 65 65 W 7 3974 3249 149 Blue 5
5 PM Sun 63 63 W 7 3495 3100 0 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 60 60 W 7 2336 3100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 57 57 N 12 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 55 55 N 12 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 55 55 N 12 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 54 54 N 12 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 53 53 N 12 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 53 53 N 12 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 52 52 NE 12 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 52 52 NE 12 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 51 51 NE 12 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 52 52 NE 12 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 51 51 NE 12 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 51 51 NE 12 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 50 50 NE 12 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 50 50 NE 12 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 54 54 NE 12 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 57 58 NE 13 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 60 62 NE 13 3254 3100 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Mon 62 64 NE 13 3735 3100 0 Blue 4
1 PM Mon 63 65 NE 12 3974 3249 149 Blue 5
2 PM Mon 64 65 NE 12 3974 3249 149 Blue 5
3 PM Mon 64 64 NE 12 3735 3100 0 Blue 4
4 PM Mon 62 62 N 17 3254 3100 0 Blue 2
5 PM Mon 61 61 N 17 3013 3100 0 Blue 1
6 PM Mon 60 60 N 17 2336 3100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 58 58 N 17 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 57 57 N 17 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 57 57 N 17 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 56 56 N 17 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 56 56 N 17 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 55 55 N 17 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 55 55 NE 14 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 55 55 NE 14 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 55 55 NE 14 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 55 55 NE 14 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 54 54 NE 14 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 55 55 NE 14 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 54 54 NE 14 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 54 54 NE 14 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 58 58 NE 14 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 62 63 NE 10 3495 3100 0 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 66 67 NE 10 4449 3726 626 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 68 70 NE 10 5241 4435 1335 Blue 10
1 PM Tue 69 70 NE 10 5241 4435 1335 Blue 10
2 PM Tue 70 71 NE 10 5945 4670 1570 Blue 11
3 PM Tue 69 69 NE 10 4921 4200 1100 Blue 9
4 PM Tue 67 67 NW 7 4449 3726 626 Blue 7
5 PM Tue 66 66 NW 7 4212 3488 388 Blue 6
6 PM Tue 63 63 NW 7 3495 3100 0 Blue 3
7 PM Tue 60 60 N 13 2336 3100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 59 59 N 13 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 58 58 N 13 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 58 58 N 10 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 57 57 N 10 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 56 56 N 10 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 56 56 N 8 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 56 56 N 8 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 55 55 N 8 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 55 55 N 8 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 55 N 8 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 55 55 N 8 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 54 54 NE 7 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 54 54 NE 7 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 57 57 NE 7 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 60 61 NE 6 3013 3100 0 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 63 65 NE 6 3974 3249 149 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 64 66 NE 6 4212 3488 388 Blue 6
1 PM Wed 65 67 W 8 4449 3726 626 Blue 7
2 PM Wed 66 67 W 8 4449 3726 626 Blue 7
3 PM Wed 65 65 W 8 3974 3249 149 Blue 5
4 PM Wed 63 63 W 7 3495 3100 0 Blue 3
5 PM Wed 62 62 W 7 3254 3100 0 Blue 2
6 PM Wed 59 59 W 7 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 56 56 N 10 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 55 55 N 10 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 54 54 N 10 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 54 54 N 9 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 53 53 N 9 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 52 52 N 9 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 52 52 N 8 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 52 52 N 8 2077 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 51 51 N 8 2077 3100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com