Detailed Predictions for: Eliminator Skyport
Launch Altitude (f): 3100
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

25 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Mon 71 71 N 6 6558 4354 1254 Blue 2
6 AM Mon 69 69 N 6 5027 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 69 69 N 6 5027 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 69 69 N 5 5027 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 70 71 N 5 6558 4354 1254 Blue 2
10 AM Mon 72 75 N 5 8183 7156 4056 Blue 6
11 AM Mon 74 78 SW 5 8524 8162 5062 Blue 9
12 Noon Mon 76 81 SW 5 8866 8502 5402 Blue 12
1 PM Mon 78 84 SW 5 9511 8843 5743 Blue 15
2 PM Mon 79 84 SW 7 9511 8843 5743 Blue 15
3 PM Mon 80 84 SW 7 9511 8843 5743 Blue 15
4 PM Mon 82 84 SW 7 9511 8843 5743 Blue 15
5 PM Mon 84 85 SW 9 9796 8956 5856 Blue 16
6 PM Mon 86 86 SW 9 10086 9194 6094 Blue 17
7 PM Mon 88 88 SW 9 10659 9727 6627 Blue 19
8 PM Mon 89 89 N 3 10942 10016 6916 Blue 20
9 PM Mon 86 86 N 3 10086 9194 6094 Blue 17
10 PM Mon 82 82 N 3 8989 8616 5516 Blue 13
11 PM Mon 77 77 E 10 8410 8049 4949 Blue 8
12 Midnight Tue 76 76 E 10 8297 7809 4709 Blue 7
1 AM Tue 76 76 E 10 8297 7809 4709 Blue 7
2 AM Tue 77 77 E 5 8410 8049 4949 Blue 8
3 AM Tue 79 79 E 5 8638 8275 5175 Blue 10
4 AM Tue 79 79 E 5 8638 8275 5175 Blue 10
5 AM Tue 77 77 NE 5 8410 8049 4949 Blue 8
6 AM Tue 74 74 NE 5 8069 6469 3369 Blue 5
7 AM Tue 69 69 NE 5 5027 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 66 66 NE 7 2869 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 65 66 NE 7 2869 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 66 69 NE 7 5027 3100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 66 70 N 7 5818 3630 530 Blue 1
12 Noon Tue 66 71 N 7 6558 4354 1254 Blue 2
1 PM Tue 65 71 N 7 6558 4354 1254 Blue 2
2 PM Tue 66 71 W 10 6558 4354 1254 Blue 2
3 PM Tue 69 73 W 10 7918 5741 2641 Blue 4
4 PM Tue 74 76 W 10 8297 7809 4709 Blue 7
5 PM Tue 78 79 SW 9 8638 8275 5175 Blue 10
6 PM Tue 81 81 SW 9 8866 8502 5402 Blue 12
7 PM Tue 84 84 SW 9 9511 8843 5743 Blue 15
8 PM Tue 90 90 NW 5 11223 10301 7201 Blue 21
9 PM Tue 91 91 NW 5 11502 10584 7484 Blue 22
10 PM Tue 92 92 NW 5 11779 10864 7764 Blue 23
11 PM Tue 92 92 E 6 11779 10864 7764 Blue 23
12 Midnight Wed 92 92 E 6 11779 10864 7764 Blue 23
1 AM Wed 92 92 E 6 11779 10864 7764 Blue 23
2 AM Wed 91 91 SE 9 11502 10584 7484 Blue 22
3 AM Wed 91 91 SE 9 11502 10584 7484 Blue 22
4 AM Wed 90 90 SE 9 11223 10301 7201 Blue 21
5 AM Wed 90 90 E 8 11223 10301 7201 Blue 21
6 AM Wed 69 69 E 8 5027 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 66 66 E 8 2869 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 68 68 NE 8 4394 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 73 74 NE 8 8069 6469 3369 Blue 5
10 AM Wed 78 81 NE 8 8866 8502 5402 Blue 12
11 AM Wed 80 84 E 8 9511 8843 5743 Blue 15
12 Noon Wed 77 82 E 8 8989 8616 5516 Blue 13
1 PM Wed 72 78 E 8 8524 8162 5062 Blue 9
2 PM Wed 68 73 SW 7 7918 5741 2641 Blue 4
3 PM Wed 69 73 SW 7 7918 5741 2641 Blue 4
4 PM Wed 73 75 SW 7 8183 7156 4056 Blue 6
5 PM Wed 80 81 W 6 8866 8502 5402 Blue 12
6 PM Wed 87 87 W 6 10374 9452 6352 Blue 18
7 PM Wed 92 92 W 6 11779 10864 7764 Blue 23
8 PM Wed 92 92 W 6 11779 10864 7764 Blue 23
9 PM Wed 88 88 W 6 10659 9727 6627 Blue 19
10 PM Wed 82 82 W 6 8989 8616 5516 Blue 13
11 PM Wed 76 76 N 3 8297 7809 4709 Blue 7
12 Midnight Thu 72 72 N 3 7256 4965 1865 Blue 3
1 AM Thu 68 68 N 3 4394 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 66 66 N 3 2869 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 64 64 N 3 2497 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 64 64 N 3 2497 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 65 65 NE 2 2497 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 68 68 NE 2 4394 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 71 71 NE 2 6558 4354 1254 Blue 2
8 AM Thu 76 76 NE 2 8297 7809 4709 Blue 7
9 AM Thu 81 82 NE 2 8989 8616 5516 Blue 13
10 AM Thu 85 88 NE 2 10659 9727 6627 Blue 19
11 AM Thu 89 93 W 8 12054 11143 8043 Blue 24
12 Noon Thu 92 97 W 8 13320 12239 9139 Blue 28
1 PM Thu 93 99 W 8 15157 12777 9677 Blue 30
2 PM Thu 94 99 W 8 15157 12777 9677 Blue 30
3 PM Thu 94 98 W 8 14255 12509 9409 Blue 29
4 PM Thu 93 95 W 8 12599 11695 8595 Blue 26
5 PM Thu 90 91 W 9 11502 10584 7484 Blue 22
6 PM Thu 87 87 W 9 10374 9452 6352 Blue 18
7 PM Thu 84 84 W 9 9511 8843 5743 Blue 15
8 PM Thu 80 80 W 9 8752 8389 5289 Blue 11
9 PM Thu 77 77 W 9 8410 8049 4949 Blue 8
10 PM Thu 73 73 W 9 7918 5741 2641 Blue 4
11 PM Thu 70 70 N 6 5818 3630 530 Blue 1
12 Midnight Fri 68 68 N 6 4394 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 67 67 N 6 3655 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 66 66 N 6 2869 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 66 66 N 6 2869 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 67 67 N 6 3655 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 69 69 N 5 5027 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 72 72 N 5 7256 4965 1865 Blue 3
7 AM Fri 76 76 N 5 8297 7809 4709 Blue 7
8 AM Fri 79 79 N 5 8638 8275 5175 Blue 10
9 AM Fri 83 84 N 5 9511 8843 5743 Blue 15
10 AM Fri 87 90 N 5 11223 10301 7201 Blue 21
11 AM Fri 90 94 W 9 12327 11420 8320 Blue 25
12 Noon Fri 93 98 W 9 14255 12509 9409 Blue 29
1 PM Fri 95 101 W 9 16250 13911 10811 Blue 32
2 PM Fri 96 101 W 9 16250 13911 10811 Blue 32
3 PM Fri 96 100 W 9 15839 13043 9943 Blue 31
4 PM Fri 95 97 W 9 13320 12239 9139 Blue 28
5 PM Fri 94 95 SW 9 12599 11695 8595 Blue 26
6 PM Fri 92 92 SW 9 11779 10864 7764 Blue 23
7 PM Fri 89 89 SW 9 10942 10016 6916 Blue 20
8 PM Fri 85 85 SW 9 9796 8956 5856 Blue 16
9 PM Fri 82 82 SW 9 8989 8616 5516 Blue 13
10 PM Fri 78 78 SW 9 8524 8162 5062 Blue 9
11 PM Fri 75 75 N 6 8183 7156 4056 Blue 6
12 Midnight Sat 72 72 N 6 7256 4965 1865 Blue 3
1 AM Sat 70 70 N 6 5818 3630 530 Blue 1
2 AM Sat 69 69 N 6 5027 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 68 68 N 6 4394 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 68 68 N 6 4394 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 70 70 N 5 5818 3630 530 Blue 1
6 AM Sat 72 72 N 5 7256 4965 1865 Blue 3
7 AM Sat 75 75 N 5 8183 7156 4056 Blue 6
8 AM Sat 79 79 N 5 8638 8275 5175 Blue 10
9 AM Sat 82 83 N 5 9251 8729 5629 Blue 14
10 AM Sat 86 89 N 5 10942 10016 6916 Blue 20
11 AM Sat 89 93 W 10 12054 11143 8043 Blue 24
12 Noon Sat 92 97 W 10 13320 12239 9139 Blue 28
1 PM Sat 94 100 W 10 15839 13043 9943 Blue 31
2 PM Sat 95 100 W 10 15839 13043 9943 Blue 31
3 PM Sat 95 99 W 10 15157 12777 9677 Blue 30
4 PM Sat 95 97 W 10 13320 12239 9139 Blue 28
5 PM Sat 93 94 W 9 12327 11420 8320 Blue 25
6 PM Sat 91 91 W 9 11502 10584 7484 Blue 22
7 PM Sat 89 89 W 9 10942 10016 6916 Blue 20
8 PM Sat 86 86 W 9 10086 9194 6094 Blue 17
9 PM Sat 83 83 W 9 9251 8729 5629 Blue 14
10 PM Sat 79 79 W 9 8638 8275 5175 Blue 10
11 PM Sat 76 76 N 5 8297 7809 4709 Blue 7
12 Midnight Sun 73 73 N 5 7918 5741 2641 Blue 4
1 AM Sun 71 71 N 5 6558 4354 1254 Blue 2
2 AM Sun 69 69 N 5 5027 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 68 68 N 5 4394 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 68 68 N 5 4394 3100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com