Detailed Predictions for: Eliminator Skyport
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.48118611111111, -119.6850861111111, 3100
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

5 MAR 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Fri 47 47 NNW 3 6 2733 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 47 47 NNW 2 6 2733 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 48 48 NNW 2 6 2733 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 47 47 NNW 3 6 2733 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 47 47 NNW 3 6 2733 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 47 47 NNW 3 6 2733 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 48 48 NNW 3 6 2733 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 49 49 N 3 6 2733 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 49 50 N 2 6 2733 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 54 56 NW 3 6 3698 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 60 64 W 4 6 6245 5568 2468 Blue 5
11 AM Fri 65 70 WSW 5 6 7594 6694 3594 Blue 11
12 Noon Fri 65 70 WSW 5 6 7594 6694 3594 Blue 11
1 PM Fri 66 71 SW 6 6 7879 6982 3882 Blue 12
2 PM Fri 66 70 SW 6 7 7594 6694 3594 Blue 11
3 PM Fri 66 68 WSW 6 6 7020 6371 3271 Blue 9
4 PM Fri 65 66 WSW 6 6 6527 6089 2989 Blue 7
5 PM Fri 65 65 WSW 5 6 6386 5949 2849 Blue 6
6 PM Fri 63 63 W 6 8 6104 4794 1694 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 62 62 WNW 6 11 5962 4363 1263 Blue 3
8 PM Fri 61 61 NW 6 13 5651 4140 1040 Blue 2
9 PM Fri 59 59 NW 6 13 4373 3693 593 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 57 57 NW 6 13 3924 3243 143 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 56 56 NW 6 12 3698 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 54 54 NW 7 14 3245 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 52 52 NW 8 15 2789 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 50 50 NW 9 17 2733 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 50 50 NW 9 17 2733 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 50 50 NW 9 17 2733 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 50 50 NW 8 16 2733 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 50 50 NW 8 16 2733 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 50 50 NNW 8 16 2733 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 50 50 NNW 8 16 2733 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 55 57 NW 8 14 3924 3243 143 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 59 62 WNW 9 13 5962 4363 1263 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 64 69 W 9 11 7308 6511 3411 Blue 10
12 Noon Sat 64 69 W 11 13 7308 6511 3411 Blue 10
1 PM Sat 65 70 W 13 15 7594 6694 3594 Blue 11
2 PM Sat 66 70 W 15 17 7594 6694 3594 Blue 11
3 PM Sat 64 66 W 16 18 6527 6089 2989 Blue 7
4 PM Sat 63 64 W 17 19 6245 5568 2468 Blue 5
5 PM Sat 61 61 WNW 18 21 5651 4140 1040 Blue 2
6 PM Sat 59 59 WNW 15 19 4373 3693 593 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 58 58 NW 11 17 4149 3469 369 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 56 56 NNW 8 15 3698 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 53 53 NNW 7 14 3018 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 50 50 NNW 6 12 2733 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 47 47 NNW 5 11 2733 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 47 47 NNW 5 10 2733 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 46 46 N 4 10 2733 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 46 46 N 4 9 2733 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 46 46 NNW 4 8 2733 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 45 45 NNW 3 7 2733 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 45 45 NNW 3 6 2733 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 46 46 NNW 2 5 2733 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 46 46 N 2 4 2733 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 47 47 N 1 3 2733 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 51 52 WNW 2 3 2789 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 55 58 WSW 2 3 4149 3469 369 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 59 62 SSW 3 3 5962 4363 1263 Blue 3
12 Noon Sun 59 63 SSW 3 4 6104 4794 1694 Blue 4
1 PM Sun 59 63 SSW 4 4 6104 4794 1694 Blue 4
2 PM Sun 60 63 SW 4 5 6104 4794 1694 Blue 4
3 PM Sun 59 61 SW 4 4 5651 4140 1040 Blue 2
4 PM Sun 58 58 SW 3 4 4149 3469 369 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 57 57 WSW 2 3 3924 3243 143 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 55 55 W 3 4 3472 3100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 54 54 WNW 3 6 3245 3100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 52 52 NW 3 7 2789 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 50 50 NW 3 6 2733 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 48 48 NNW 3 6 2733 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 46 46 NNW 2 5 2733 3100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com