Detailed Predictions for: Eliminator Skyport
Launch Altitude (f): 3100
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

19 AUG 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 73 73 N 8 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 72 72 N 8 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 73 73 N 8 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 74 74 N 6 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 76 77 N 6 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 79 81 N 6 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 81 86 NW 5 2923 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 83 90 NW 5 6939 3258 158 Blue 3
1 PM Sun 86 93 NW 5 8634 6785 3685 Blue 6
2 PM Sun 88 95 NW 7 9281 8146 5046 Blue 8
3 PM Sun 88 94 NW 7 8959 7541 4441 Blue 7
4 PM Sun 88 92 NW 7 8251 5526 2426 Blue 5
5 PM Sun 87 89 NW 8 5655 3100 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sun 86 87 NW 8 3283 3100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 84 84 NW 8 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 82 82 NW 7 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 81 81 NW 7 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 80 80 NW 7 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 78 78 N 3 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 78 78 N 3 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 75 75 N 3 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 74 74 N 2 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 73 73 N 2 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 72 72 N 2 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 72 72 NW 1 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 71 71 NW 1 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 72 72 NW 1 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 72 72 W 1 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 74 76 W 1 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 76 80 W 1 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 77 82 SW 7 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 78 85 SW 7 2714 3100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 80 87 SW 7 3283 3100 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 82 89 SW 7 5655 3100 0 Blue 2
3 PM Mon 82 88 SW 7 4422 3100 0 Blue 1
4 PM Mon 82 86 SW 7 2923 3100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 81 83 W 7 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 81 82 W 7 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 79 79 W 7 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 78 78 W 7 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 77 77 W 7 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 76 76 W 7 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 75 75 S 1 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 75 75 S 1 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 73 73 S 1 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 72 72 S 1 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 71 71 S 1 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 71 71 S 1 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 71 71 SE 2 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 70 70 SE 2 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 71 71 SE 2 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 71 71 SE 2 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 73 75 SE 2 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 75 78 SE 2 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 77 82 SW 8 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 78 84 SW 8 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 80 86 SW 8 2923 3100 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 82 88 SW 8 4422 3100 0 Blue 1
3 PM Tue 82 87 SW 8 3283 3100 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 82 85 SW 8 2714 3100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 81 83 SW 6 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 80 80 SW 6 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 79 79 SW 6 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 77 77 SW 6 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 76 76 SW 6 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 76 76 SW 6 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 74 74 W 1 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 74 74 W 1 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 72 72 W 1 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 71 71 W 1 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 70 70 W 1 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 70 70 W 1 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 70 70 N 3 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 69 69 N 3 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 70 70 N 3 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 71 71 N 3 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 73 75 N 3 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 75 79 N 3 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 77 82 W 10 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 79 85 W 10 2714 3100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 82 88 W 10 4422 3100 0 Blue 1
2 PM Wed 84 90 W 10 6939 3258 158 Blue 3
3 PM Wed 84 89 W 10 5655 3100 0 Blue 2
4 PM Wed 84 87 W 10 3283 3100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 83 85 W 10 2714 3100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 82 82 W 10 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 80 80 W 10 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 78 78 W 10 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 77 77 W 10 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 77 77 W 10 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 75 75 NW 7 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 75 75 NW 7 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 73 73 NW 7 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 72 72 NW 7 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 70 70 NW 7 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 70 70 NW 7 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 70 70 NE 3 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 69 69 NE 3 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 70 70 NE 3 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 71 71 NE 3 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 72 74 NE 3 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 75 78 NE 3 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 76 81 SW 10 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 78 85 SW 10 2714 3100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 80 87 SW 10 3283 3100 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 82 89 SW 10 5655 3100 0 Blue 2
3 PM Thu 82 88 SW 10 4422 3100 0 Blue 1
4 PM Thu 82 86 SW 10 2923 3100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 81 83 W 13 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 80 81 W 13 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 79 79 W 13 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 77 77 W 13 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 76 76 W 13 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 76 76 W 13 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 74 74 N 9 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 74 74 N 9 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 72 72 N 9 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 71 71 N 9 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 70 70 N 9 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 70 70 N 9 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 70 70 N 7 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 69 69 N 7 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 70 70 N 7 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 71 71 N 7 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 72 74 N 7 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 75 78 N 7 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 76 81 W 14 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 78 85 W 14 2714 3100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 80 87 W 14 3283 3100 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 82 89 W 14 5655 3100 0 Blue 2
3 PM Fri 82 88 W 14 4422 3100 0 Blue 1
4 PM Fri 82 86 W 14 2923 3100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 81 83 W 15 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 80 81 W 15 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 79 79 W 15 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 77 77 W 15 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 76 76 W 15 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 76 76 W 15 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 74 74 N 10 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 74 74 N 10 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 72 72 N 10 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 71 71 N 10 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 70 70 N 10 2562 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 70 70 N 10 2562 3100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com