Detailed Predictions for: Eliminator Skyport
Launch Altitude (f): 3100
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

14 DEC 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 58 58 SE 10 3104 3100 0 Blue 4
5 AM Fri 56 56 SE 10 2919 3100 0 Blue 2
6 AM Fri 58 58 SE 10 3104 3100 0 Blue 4
7 AM Fri 56 56 SE 10 2919 3100 0 Blue 2
8 AM Fri 56 56 SE 10 2919 3100 0 Blue 2
9 AM Fri 56 56 SE 10 2919 3100 0 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 56 56 SE 9 2919 3100 0 Blue 2
11 AM Fri 57 57 SE 9 3012 3100 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Fri 57 57 SE 9 3012 3100 0 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 57 57 SE 15 3012 3100 0 Blue 3
2 PM Fri 57 57 SE 15 3012 3100 0 Blue 3
3 PM Fri 56 56 SE 15 2919 3100 0 Blue 2
4 PM Fri 56 56 SE 7 2919 3100 0 Blue 2
5 PM Fri 54 54 SE 7 2735 3100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 53 53 SE 7 2614 3100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 53 53 SE 9 2614 3100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 52 52 SE 9 2503 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 52 52 SE 9 2503 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 53 53 SE 5 2614 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 53 53 SE 5 2614 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 52 52 SE 5 2503 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 52 52 SE 5 2503 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 51 51 SE 5 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 51 51 SE 5 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 51 51 SE 5 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 50 50 SE 5 2287 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 51 51 SE 5 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 50 50 SE 6 2287 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 50 50 SE 6 2287 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 51 51 SE 6 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 53 54 SE 6 2735 3100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 54 56 SE 6 2919 3100 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sat 56 58 SE 6 3104 3100 0 Blue 4
1 PM Sat 56 58 S 5 3104 3100 0 Blue 4
2 PM Sat 56 57 S 5 3012 3100 0 Blue 3
3 PM Sat 56 56 S 5 2919 3100 0 Blue 2
4 PM Sat 55 55 S 5 2827 3100 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sat 55 55 S 5 2827 3100 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sat 54 54 S 5 2735 3100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 54 54 S 5 2735 3100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 54 54 S 5 2735 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 54 54 S 5 2735 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 54 54 SE 7 2735 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 54 54 SE 7 2735 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 54 54 SE 7 2735 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 54 54 SE 7 2735 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 54 54 SE 7 2735 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 54 54 SE 7 2735 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 54 54 SE 6 2735 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 53 53 SE 6 2614 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 53 53 SE 6 2614 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 53 53 SE 6 2614 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 53 53 SE 6 2614 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 54 54 SE 6 2735 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 55 56 S 10 2919 3100 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 55 56 S 10 2919 3100 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sun 57 58 S 10 3104 3100 0 Blue 4
1 PM Sun 57 58 S 10 3104 3100 0 Blue 4
2 PM Sun 57 58 S 10 3104 3100 0 Blue 4
3 PM Sun 56 56 S 10 2919 3100 0 Blue 2
4 PM Sun 55 55 SE 9 2827 3100 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sun 52 52 SE 9 2503 3100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 51 51 SE 9 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 50 50 SE 9 2287 3100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 50 50 SE 9 2287 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 49 49 SE 9 2287 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 51 51 SE 8 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 50 50 SE 8 2287 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 49 49 SE 8 2287 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 49 49 SE 8 2287 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 48 48 SE 8 2287 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 48 48 SE 8 2287 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 48 48 SE 7 2287 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 47 47 SE 7 2287 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 47 47 SE 7 2287 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 46 46 SE 7 2287 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 47 47 SE 7 2287 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 48 48 SE 7 2287 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 49 49 W 6 2287 3100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 51 51 W 6 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 53 54 W 6 2735 3100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 54 54 W 6 2735 3100 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 54 54 W 6 2735 3100 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 53 53 W 6 2614 3100 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 52 52 NW 10 2503 3100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 50 50 NW 10 2287 3100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 49 49 NW 10 2287 3100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 48 48 NW 10 2287 3100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 48 48 NW 10 2287 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 48 48 NW 10 2287 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 49 49 N 8 2287 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 49 49 N 8 2287 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 47 47 N 8 2287 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 47 47 N 8 2287 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 47 47 N 8 2287 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 47 47 N 8 2287 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 47 47 N 7 2287 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 45 45 N 7 2287 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 46 46 N 7 2287 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 45 45 N 7 2287 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 46 46 N 7 2287 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 47 47 N 7 2287 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 49 50 NE 5 2287 3100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 51 53 NE 5 2614 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 54 56 NE 5 2919 3100 0 Blue 2
1 PM Tue 55 57 NE 5 3012 3100 0 Blue 3
2 PM Tue 55 56 NE 5 2919 3100 0 Blue 2
3 PM Tue 54 54 NE 5 2735 3100 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 54 54 NW 6 2735 3100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 53 53 NW 6 2614 3100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 52 52 NW 6 2503 3100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 52 52 NW 6 2503 3100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 52 52 NW 6 2503 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 52 52 NW 6 2503 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 52 52 NE 7 2503 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 52 52 NE 7 2503 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 51 51 NE 7 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 51 51 NE 7 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 51 51 NE 7 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 51 51 NE 7 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 51 51 N 6 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 50 50 N 6 2287 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 50 50 N 6 2287 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 50 50 N 6 2287 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 51 51 N 6 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 54 55 N 6 2827 3100 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 57 58 E 6 3104 3100 0 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 61 63 E 6 4136 3423 323 Blue 9
12 Noon Wed 66 68 E 6 5620 4782 1682 Blue 14
1 PM Wed 67 69 E 6 5874 5085 1985 Blue 15
2 PM Wed 67 68 E 6 5620 4782 1682 Blue 14
3 PM Wed 66 66 E 6 5106 4119 1019 Blue 12
4 PM Wed 64 64 NW 5 4472 3640 540 Blue 10
5 PM Wed 60 60 NW 5 3429 3100 0 Blue 6
6 PM Wed 59 59 NW 5 3211 3100 0 Blue 5
7 PM Wed 58 58 NW 5 3104 3100 0 Blue 4
8 PM Wed 58 58 NW 5 3104 3100 0 Blue 4
9 PM Wed 57 57 NW 5 3012 3100 0 Blue 3
10 PM Wed 59 59 NE 5 3211 3100 0 Blue 5
11 PM Wed 59 59 NE 5 3211 3100 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Thu 57 57 NE 5 3012 3100 0 Blue 3
1 AM Thu 56 56 NE 5 2919 3100 0 Blue 2
2 AM Thu 56 56 NE 5 2919 3100 0 Blue 2
3 AM Thu 56 56 NE 5 2919 3100 0 Blue 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com