Detailed Predictions for: Eliminator Skyport
Launch Altitude (f): 3100
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

23 FEB 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 34 34 N 16 810 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 34 34 N 16 810 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 33 33 N 16 810 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 33 33 N 16 810 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 33 33 N 16 810 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 34 35 N 16 810 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 36 38 N 14 4891 3100 0 White 3
11 AM Fri 38 41 N 14 5540 5540 2440 White 6
12 Noon Fri 40 43 N 14 5964 5964 2864 White 8
1 PM Fri 42 45 NW 17 6387 6387 3287 White 10
2 PM Fri 44 46 NW 17 6598 6598 3498 White 11
3 PM Fri 45 46 NW 17 6598 6598 3498 White 11
4 PM Fri 45 45 N 23 6387 6387 3287 White 10
5 PM Fri 42 42 N 23 5753 5753 2653 White 7
6 PM Fri 38 38 N 23 4891 3100 0 White 3
7 PM Fri 35 35 N 24 810 3100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 35 35 N 24 810 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 36 36 N 24 4454 3100 0 White 1
10 PM Fri 37 37 NE 13 4671 3100 0 White 2
11 PM Fri 38 38 NE 13 4891 3100 0 White 3
12 Midnight Sat 39 39 NE 13 5112 3805 705 White 4
1 AM Sat 39 39 NE 6 5112 3805 705 White 4
2 AM Sat 39 39 NE 6 5112 3805 705 White 4
3 AM Sat 39 39 NE 6 5112 3805 705 White 4
4 AM Sat 39 39 NW 5 5112 3805 705 White 4
5 AM Sat 39 39 NW 5 5112 3805 705 White 4
6 AM Sat 38 38 NW 5 4891 3100 0 White 3
7 AM Sat 39 39 N 6 5112 3805 705 White 4
8 AM Sat 39 39 N 6 5112 3805 705 White 4
9 AM Sat 40 41 N 6 5540 5540 2440 White 6
10 AM Sat 41 44 E 6 6175 6175 3075 White 9
11 AM Sat 42 46 E 6 6598 6598 3498 White 11
12 Noon Sat 44 48 E 6 7012 7012 3912 White 13
1 PM Sat 46 50 NW 12 7424 7424 4324 White 15
2 PM Sat 49 52 NW 12 7835 7835 4735 White 17
3 PM Sat 51 53 NW 12 8041 8041 4941 White 18
4 PM Sat 52 52 NW 13 7835 7835 4735 White 17
5 PM Sat 51 51 NW 13 7630 7630 4530 White 16
6 PM Sat 49 49 NW 13 7218 7218 4118 White 14
7 PM Sat 47 47 N 13 6805 6805 3705 White 12
8 PM Sat 45 45 N 13 6387 6387 3287 White 10
9 PM Sat 43 43 N 13 5964 5964 2864 White 8
10 PM Sat 42 42 NE 25 5753 5753 2653 White 7
11 PM Sat 41 41 NE 25 5540 5540 2440 White 6
12 Midnight Sun 41 41 NE 25 5540 5540 2440 White 6
1 AM Sun 41 41 N 14 5540 5540 2440 White 6
2 AM Sun 42 42 N 14 5753 5753 2653 White 7
3 AM Sun 42 42 N 14 5753 5753 2653 White 7
4 AM Sun 43 43 NE 13 5964 5964 2864 White 8
5 AM Sun 42 42 NE 13 5753 5753 2653 White 7
6 AM Sun 41 41 NE 13 5540 5540 2440 White 6
7 AM Sun 41 41 NE 12 5540 5540 2440 White 6
8 AM Sun 42 42 NE 12 5753 5753 2653 White 7
9 AM Sun 43 44 NE 12 6175 6175 3075 White 9
10 AM Sun 45 48 E 3 7012 7012 3912 White 13
11 AM Sun 46 50 E 3 7424 7424 4324 White 15
12 Noon Sun 47 51 E 3 7630 7630 4530 White 16
1 PM Sun 48 52 NW 8 7835 7835 4735 White 17
2 PM Sun 50 53 NW 8 8041 8041 4941 White 18
3 PM Sun 52 54 NW 8 8245 8245 5145 White 19
4 PM Sun 53 53 NW 9 8041 8041 4941 White 18
5 PM Sun 54 54 NW 9 8245 8245 5145 White 19
6 PM Sun 55 55 NW 9 8450 8450 5350 White 20
7 PM Sun 55 55 NW 9 8450 8450 5350 White 20
8 PM Sun 55 55 NW 9 8450 8450 5350 White 20
9 PM Sun 55 55 NW 9 8450 8450 5350 White 20
10 PM Sun 55 55 N 14 8450 8450 5350 White 20
11 PM Sun 54 54 N 14 8245 8245 5145 White 19
12 Midnight Mon 54 54 N 14 8245 8245 5145 White 19
1 AM Mon 53 53 N 14 8041 8041 4941 White 18
2 AM Mon 52 52 N 14 7835 7835 4735 White 17
3 AM Mon 51 51 N 14 7630 7630 4530 White 16
4 AM Mon 50 50 N 13 7424 7424 4324 White 15
5 AM Mon 49 49 N 13 7218 7218 4118 White 14
6 AM Mon 48 48 N 13 7012 7012 3912 White 13
7 AM Mon 50 50 N 13 7424 7424 4324 White 15
8 AM Mon 44 44 N 13 6175 6175 3075 White 9
9 AM Mon 48 49 N 13 7218 7218 4118 White 14
10 AM Mon 48 49 NW 21 7218 7218 4118 White 14
11 AM Mon 47 49 NW 21 7218 7218 4118 White 14
12 Noon Mon 47 49 NW 21 7218 7218 4118 White 14
1 PM Mon 47 49 NW 21 7218 7218 4118 White 14
2 PM Mon 47 48 NW 21 7012 7012 3912 White 13
3 PM Mon 47 48 NW 21 7012 7012 3912 White 13
4 PM Mon 47 47 NW 23 6805 6805 3705 White 12
5 PM Mon 46 46 NW 23 6598 6598 3498 White 11
6 PM Mon 45 45 NW 23 6387 6387 3287 White 10
7 PM Mon 43 43 NW 23 5964 5964 2864 White 8
8 PM Mon 42 42 NW 23 5753 5753 2653 White 7
9 PM Mon 41 41 NW 23 5540 5540 2440 White 6
10 PM Mon 40 40 NW 21 5326 5326 2226 White 5
11 PM Mon 39 39 NW 21 5112 3805 705 White 4
12 Midnight Tue 38 38 NW 21 4891 3100 0 White 3
1 AM Tue 38 38 NW 21 4891 3100 0 White 3
2 AM Tue 38 38 NW 21 4891 3100 0 White 3
3 AM Tue 38 38 NW 21 4891 3100 0 White 3
4 AM Tue 38 38 N 13 4891 3100 0 White 3
5 AM Tue 39 39 N 13 5112 3805 705 White 4
6 AM Tue 39 39 N 13 5112 3805 705 White 4
7 AM Tue 40 40 N 13 5326 5326 2226 White 5
8 AM Tue 41 41 N 13 5540 5540 2440 White 6
9 AM Tue 41 41 N 13 5540 5540 2440 White 6
10 AM Tue 42 43 W 13 5964 5964 2864 White 8
11 AM Tue 43 45 W 13 6387 6387 3287 White 10
12 Noon Tue 44 46 W 13 6598 6598 3498 White 11
1 PM Tue 45 47 W 13 6805 6805 3705 White 12
2 PM Tue 46 47 W 13 6805 6805 3705 White 12
3 PM Tue 47 48 W 13 7012 7012 3912 White 13
4 PM Tue 47 47 NW 14 6805 6805 3705 White 12
5 PM Tue 47 47 NW 14 6805 6805 3705 White 12
6 PM Tue 45 45 NW 14 6387 6387 3287 White 10
7 PM Tue 44 44 NW 14 6175 6175 3075 White 9
8 PM Tue 42 42 NW 14 5753 5753 2653 White 7
9 PM Tue 41 41 NW 14 5540 5540 2440 White 6
10 PM Tue 39 39 N 13 5112 3805 705 White 4
11 PM Tue 38 38 N 13 4891 3100 0 White 3
12 Midnight Wed 38 38 N 13 4891 3100 0 White 3
1 AM Wed 38 38 N 13 4891 3100 0 White 3
2 AM Wed 38 38 N 13 4891 3100 0 White 3
3 AM Wed 39 39 N 13 5112 3805 705 White 4
4 AM Wed 39 39 N 12 5112 3805 705 White 4
5 AM Wed 39 39 N 12 5112 3805 705 White 4
6 AM Wed 40 40 N 12 5326 5326 2226 White 5
7 AM Wed 41 41 N 12 5540 5540 2440 White 6
8 AM Wed 41 41 N 12 5540 5540 2440 White 6
9 AM Wed 42 43 N 12 5964 5964 2864 White 8
10 AM Wed 43 45 W 14 6387 6387 3287 White 10
11 AM Wed 45 47 W 14 6805 6805 3705 White 12
12 Noon Wed 46 49 W 14 7218 7218 4118 White 14
1 PM Wed 47 50 W 14 7424 7424 4324 White 15
2 PM Wed 48 50 W 14 7424 7424 4324 White 15
3 PM Wed 49 50 W 14 7424 7424 4324 White 15
4 PM Wed 49 49 W 14 7218 7218 4118 White 14
5 PM Wed 49 49 W 14 7218 7218 4118 White 14
6 PM Wed 48 48 W 14 7012 7012 3912 White 13
7 PM Wed 46 46 W 14 6598 6598 3498 White 11
8 PM Wed 45 45 W 14 6387 6387 3287 White 10
9 PM Wed 43 43 W 14 5964 5964 2864 White 8
10 PM Wed 42 42 N 8 5753 5753 2653 White 7
11 PM Wed 41 41 N 8 5540 5540 2440 White 6
12 Midnight Thu 41 41 N 8 5540 5540 2440 White 6
1 AM Thu 41 41 N 8 5540 5540 2440 White 6
2 AM Thu 41 41 N 8 5540 5540 2440 White 6
3 AM Thu 41 41 N 8 5540 5540 2440 White 6

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com