Detailed Predictions for: Eliminator Skyport
Launch Altitude (f): 3100
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

18 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 55 55 N 21 2602 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 54 54 N 21 2516 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 55 55 N 21 2602 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 54 54 N 21 2516 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 58 59 N 21 3469 3106 6 Blue 3
10 AM Fri 61 63 N 21 5309 3586 486 Blue 7
11 AM Fri 63 66 N 14 5727 5300 2200 Blue 10
12 Noon Fri 63 67 N 14 5905 5405 2305 Blue 11
1 PM Fri 65 69 N 14 6210 5709 2609 Blue 13
2 PM Fri 66 69 N 14 6210 5709 2609 Blue 13
3 PM Fri 66 68 N 14 6082 5532 2432 Blue 12
4 PM Fri 65 66 N 14 5727 5300 2200 Blue 10
5 PM Fri 63 63 N 14 5309 3586 486 Blue 7
6 PM Fri 62 62 N 14 4633 3466 366 Blue 6
7 PM Fri 62 62 N 14 4633 3466 366 Blue 6
8 PM Fri 60 60 N 14 3590 3226 126 Blue 4
9 PM Fri 58 58 N 14 3349 3100 0 Blue 2
10 PM Fri 56 56 N 14 3108 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 57 57 N 10 3228 3100 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sat 56 56 N 10 3108 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 57 57 N 10 3228 3100 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sat 57 57 N 7 3228 3100 0 Blue 1
3 AM Sat 56 56 N 7 3108 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 56 56 N 7 3108 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 55 55 N 9 2602 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 54 54 N 9 2516 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 55 55 N 9 2602 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 54 54 N 9 2516 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 59 60 N 9 3590 3226 126 Blue 4
10 AM Sat 62 64 N 9 5415 4071 971 Blue 8
11 AM Sat 64 67 SW 5 5905 5405 2305 Blue 11
12 Noon Sat 65 69 SW 5 6210 5709 2609 Blue 13
1 PM Sat 67 71 SW 5 6364 6062 2962 Blue 15
2 PM Sat 68 72 SW 5 6599 6201 3101 Blue 16
3 PM Sat 68 71 SW 5 6364 6062 2962 Blue 15
4 PM Sat 68 69 SW 5 6210 5709 2609 Blue 13
5 PM Sat 66 66 N 22 5727 5300 2200 Blue 10
6 PM Sat 66 66 N 22 5727 5300 2200 Blue 10
7 PM Sat 66 66 N 22 5727 5300 2200 Blue 10
8 PM Sat 64 64 N 22 5415 4071 971 Blue 8
9 PM Sat 64 64 N 22 5415 4071 971 Blue 8
10 PM Sat 62 62 N 22 4633 3466 366 Blue 6
11 PM Sat 63 63 N 29 5309 3586 486 Blue 7
12 Midnight Sun 62 62 N 29 4633 3466 366 Blue 6
1 AM Sun 63 63 N 29 5309 3586 486 Blue 7
2 AM Sun 63 63 N 29 5309 3586 486 Blue 7
3 AM Sun 62 62 N 29 4633 3466 366 Blue 6
4 AM Sun 62 62 N 29 4633 3466 366 Blue 6
5 AM Sun 61 61 NE 14 4097 3346 246 Blue 5
6 AM Sun 61 61 NE 14 4097 3346 246 Blue 5
7 AM Sun 62 62 NE 14 4633 3466 366 Blue 6
8 AM Sun 61 61 NE 14 4097 3346 246 Blue 5
9 AM Sun 64 65 NE 14 5549 4599 1499 Blue 9
10 AM Sun 66 68 NE 14 6082 5532 2432 Blue 12
11 AM Sun 67 70 N 12 6287 5886 2786 Blue 14
12 Noon Sun 67 71 N 12 6364 6062 2962 Blue 15
1 PM Sun 69 73 N 12 6857 6278 3178 Blue 17
2 PM Sun 69 73 N 12 6857 6278 3178 Blue 17
3 PM Sun 69 72 N 12 6599 6201 3101 Blue 16
4 PM Sun 68 69 N 12 6210 5709 2609 Blue 13
5 PM Sun 66 66 N 12 5727 5300 2200 Blue 10
6 PM Sun 66 66 N 12 5727 5300 2200 Blue 10
7 PM Sun 66 66 N 12 5727 5300 2200 Blue 10
8 PM Sun 64 64 N 12 5415 4071 971 Blue 8
9 PM Sun 63 63 N 12 5309 3586 486 Blue 7
10 PM Sun 61 61 N 12 4097 3346 246 Blue 5
11 PM Sun 61 61 NE 8 4097 3346 246 Blue 5
12 Midnight Mon 60 60 NE 8 3590 3226 126 Blue 4
1 AM Mon 61 61 NE 8 4097 3346 246 Blue 5
2 AM Mon 61 61 NE 8 4097 3346 246 Blue 5
3 AM Mon 61 61 NE 8 4097 3346 246 Blue 5
4 AM Mon 60 60 NE 8 3590 3226 126 Blue 4
5 AM Mon 60 60 NE 8 3590 3226 126 Blue 4
6 AM Mon 59 59 NE 8 3469 3106 6 Blue 3
7 AM Mon 60 60 NE 8 3590 3226 126 Blue 4
8 AM Mon 59 59 NE 8 3469 3106 6 Blue 3
9 AM Mon 64 65 NE 8 5549 4599 1499 Blue 9
10 AM Mon 68 70 NE 8 6287 5886 2786 Blue 14
11 AM Mon 70 73 NW 3 6857 6278 3178 Blue 17
12 Noon Mon 71 75 NW 3 7370 6565 3465 Blue 19
1 PM Mon 73 77 NW 3 7877 7076 3976 Blue 21
2 PM Mon 74 78 NW 3 8124 7330 4230 Blue 22
3 PM Mon 74 77 NW 3 7877 7076 3976 Blue 21
4 PM Mon 73 74 NW 3 7114 6355 3255 Blue 18
5 PM Mon 71 71 NW 6 6364 6062 2962 Blue 15
6 PM Mon 71 71 NW 6 6364 6062 2962 Blue 15
7 PM Mon 71 71 NW 6 6364 6062 2962 Blue 15
8 PM Mon 69 69 NW 6 6210 5709 2609 Blue 13
9 PM Mon 68 68 NW 6 6082 5532 2432 Blue 12
10 PM Mon 66 66 NW 6 5727 5300 2200 Blue 10
11 PM Mon 66 66 NE 8 5727 5300 2200 Blue 10
12 Midnight Tue 65 65 NE 8 5549 4599 1499 Blue 9
1 AM Tue 66 66 NE 8 5727 5300 2200 Blue 10
2 AM Tue 66 66 NE 8 5727 5300 2200 Blue 10
3 AM Tue 66 66 NE 8 5727 5300 2200 Blue 10
4 AM Tue 65 65 NE 8 5549 4599 1499 Blue 9
5 AM Tue 65 65 NE 7 5549 4599 1499 Blue 9
6 AM Tue 64 64 NE 7 5415 4071 971 Blue 8
7 AM Tue 65 65 NE 7 5549 4599 1499 Blue 9
8 AM Tue 64 64 NE 7 5415 4071 971 Blue 8
9 AM Tue 69 70 NE 7 6287 5886 2786 Blue 14
10 AM Tue 73 75 NE 7 7370 6565 3465 Blue 19
11 AM Tue 75 78 W 7 8124 7330 4230 Blue 22
12 Noon Tue 76 80 W 7 8874 7834 4734 Blue 24
1 PM Tue 78 82 W 7 9911 8309 5209 Blue 26
2 PM Tue 79 83 W 7 10294 8765 5665 Blue 27
3 PM Tue 78 81 W 7 9400 8083 4983 Blue 25
4 PM Tue 78 79 W 7 8352 7582 4482 Blue 23
5 PM Tue 75 75 W 7 7370 6565 3465 Blue 19
6 PM Tue 75 75 W 7 7370 6565 3465 Blue 19
7 PM Tue 74 74 W 7 7114 6355 3255 Blue 18
8 PM Tue 71 71 W 7 6364 6062 2962 Blue 15
9 PM Tue 70 70 W 7 6287 5886 2786 Blue 14
10 PM Tue 67 67 W 7 5905 5405 2305 Blue 11
11 PM Tue 67 67 N 7 5905 5405 2305 Blue 11
12 Midnight Wed 66 66 N 7 5727 5300 2200 Blue 10
1 AM Wed 68 68 N 7 6082 5532 2432 Blue 12
2 AM Wed 68 68 N 7 6082 5532 2432 Blue 12
3 AM Wed 67 67 N 7 5905 5405 2305 Blue 11
4 AM Wed 66 66 N 7 5727 5300 2200 Blue 10
5 AM Wed 65 65 N 7 5549 4599 1499 Blue 9
6 AM Wed 64 64 N 7 5415 4071 971 Blue 8
7 AM Wed 65 65 N 7 5549 4599 1499 Blue 9
8 AM Wed 64 64 N 7 5415 4071 971 Blue 8
9 AM Wed 68 69 N 7 6210 5709 2609 Blue 13
10 AM Wed 70 72 N 7 6599 6201 3101 Blue 16
11 AM Wed 72 75 W 8 7370 6565 3465 Blue 19
12 Noon Wed 73 77 W 8 7877 7076 3976 Blue 21
1 PM Wed 74 78 W 8 8124 7330 4230 Blue 22
2 PM Wed 75 79 W 8 8352 7582 4482 Blue 23
3 PM Wed 75 78 W 8 8124 7330 4230 Blue 22
4 PM Wed 74 75 W 8 7370 6565 3465 Blue 19
5 PM Wed 72 72 W 8 6599 6201 3101 Blue 16
6 PM Wed 71 71 W 8 6364 6062 2962 Blue 15
7 PM Wed 71 71 W 8 6364 6062 2962 Blue 15
8 PM Wed 68 68 W 8 6082 5532 2432 Blue 12
9 PM Wed 67 67 W 8 5905 5405 2305 Blue 11
10 PM Wed 65 65 W 8 5549 4599 1499 Blue 9
11 PM Wed 65 65 NE 8 5549 4599 1499 Blue 9
12 Midnight Thu 64 64 NE 8 5415 4071 971 Blue 8
1 AM Thu 65 65 NE 8 5549 4599 1499 Blue 9
2 AM Thu 65 65 NE 8 5549 4599 1499 Blue 9
3 AM Thu 65 65 NE 8 5549 4599 1499 Blue 9
4 AM Thu 64 64 NE 8 5415 4071 971 Blue 8

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com