Detailed Predictions for: Eliminator Skyport
Launch Altitude (f): 3100
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

16 OCT 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 53 53 N 7 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 53 53 N 7 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 53 53 N 7 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 54 54 N 7 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 57 58 N 7 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 60 62 N 7 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 62 65 NW 6 2481 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 63 67 NW 6 3732 3100 0 Blue 1
1 PM Tue 64 68 NW 6 4504 3100 0 Blue 2
2 PM Tue 66 70 W 9 5964 3704 604 Blue 4
3 PM Tue 67 70 W 9 5964 3704 604 Blue 4
4 PM Tue 67 69 W 9 5215 3100 0 Blue 3
5 PM Tue 66 66 NE 8 2902 3100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 63 63 NE 8 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 60 60 NE 8 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 60 60 NE 8 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 57 57 NE 8 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 57 57 NE 8 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 56 56 E 8 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 54 54 E 8 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 54 54 E 8 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 53 53 E 7 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 52 52 E 7 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 52 52 E 7 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 52 52 E 6 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 51 51 E 6 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 51 51 E 6 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 52 52 SE 2 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 56 57 SE 2 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 60 62 SE 2 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 62 65 W 6 2481 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 64 68 W 6 4504 3100 0 Blue 2
1 PM Wed 66 70 W 6 5964 3704 604 Blue 4
2 PM Wed 68 72 NW 9 6362 5130 2030 Blue 6
3 PM Wed 69 72 NW 9 6362 5130 2030 Blue 6
4 PM Wed 69 70 NW 9 5964 3704 604 Blue 4
5 PM Wed 69 69 NW 8 5215 3100 0 Blue 3
6 PM Wed 65 65 NW 8 2481 3100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 63 63 NW 8 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 63 63 NW 8 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 60 60 NW 8 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 60 60 NW 8 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 59 59 NE 5 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 58 58 NE 5 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 58 58 NE 5 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 56 56 NE 5 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 56 56 NE 5 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 56 56 NE 5 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 55 55 NE 3 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 55 55 NE 3 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 55 55 NE 3 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 56 56 NE 3 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 59 60 NE 3 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 62 64 NE 3 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 64 67 W 3 3732 3100 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Thu 66 70 W 3 5964 3704 604 Blue 4
1 PM Thu 67 72 W 3 6362 5130 2030 Blue 6
2 PM Thu 69 73 W 3 6617 5943 2843 Blue 7
3 PM Thu 70 73 W 3 6617 5943 2843 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 70 72 W 3 6362 5130 2030 Blue 6
5 PM Thu 70 70 NW 7 5964 3704 604 Blue 4
6 PM Thu 66 66 NW 7 2902 3100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 63 63 NW 7 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 63 63 NW 7 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 60 60 NW 7 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 60 60 NW 7 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 60 60 NE 8 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 58 58 NE 8 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 58 58 NE 8 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 57 57 NE 8 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 56 56 NE 8 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 56 56 NE 8 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 55 55 NE 7 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 55 55 NE 7 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 55 55 NE 7 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 56 56 NE 7 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 60 61 NE 7 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 65 67 NE 7 3732 3100 0 Blue 1
11 AM Fri 67 70 E 1 5964 3704 604 Blue 4
12 Noon Fri 69 73 E 1 6617 5943 2843 Blue 7
1 PM Fri 71 76 E 1 7734 6568 3468 Blue 10
2 PM Fri 74 78 E 1 8456 7310 4210 Blue 12
3 PM Fri 75 78 E 1 8456 7310 4210 Blue 12
4 PM Fri 75 77 E 1 8097 6942 3842 Blue 11
5 PM Fri 74 74 W 7 6994 6141 3041 Blue 8
6 PM Fri 70 70 W 7 5964 3704 604 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 67 67 W 7 3732 3100 0 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 67 67 W 7 3732 3100 0 Blue 1
9 PM Fri 63 63 W 7 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 63 63 W 7 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 62 62 N 8 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 60 60 N 8 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 60 60 N 8 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 58 58 N 8 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 58 58 N 8 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 57 57 N 8 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 57 57 NE 9 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 56 56 NE 9 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 56 56 NE 9 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 57 57 NE 9 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 60 60 NE 9 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 64 66 NE 9 2902 3100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 66 69 E 6 5215 3100 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Sat 68 71 E 6 6163 4460 1360 Blue 5
1 PM Sat 70 74 E 6 6994 6141 3041 Blue 8
2 PM Sat 72 75 E 6 7367 6338 3238 Blue 9
3 PM Sat 73 75 E 6 7367 6338 3238 Blue 9
4 PM Sat 73 74 E 6 6994 6141 3041 Blue 8
5 PM Sat 73 73 W 3 6617 5943 2843 Blue 7
6 PM Sat 70 70 W 3 5964 3704 604 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 68 68 W 3 4504 3100 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 68 68 W 3 4504 3100 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sat 66 66 W 3 2902 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 66 66 W 3 2902 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 65 65 N 8 2481 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 64 64 N 8 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 64 64 N 8 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 63 63 N 8 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 63 63 N 8 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 63 63 N 8 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 62 62 NE 6 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 62 62 NE 6 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 62 62 NE 6 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 62 62 NE 6 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 64 64 NE 6 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 66 67 NE 6 3732 3100 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 68 70 S 5 5964 3704 604 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 68 71 S 5 6163 4460 1360 Blue 5
1 PM Sun 69 72 S 5 6362 5130 2030 Blue 6
2 PM Sun 70 73 S 5 6617 5943 2843 Blue 7
3 PM Sun 71 73 S 5 6617 5943 2843 Blue 7
4 PM Sun 71 72 S 5 6362 5130 2030 Blue 6
5 PM Sun 71 71 W 8 6163 4460 1360 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 68 68 W 8 4504 3100 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 67 67 W 8 3732 3100 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 67 67 W 8 3732 3100 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sun 65 65 W 8 2481 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 65 65 W 8 2481 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 64 64 N 5 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 63 63 N 5 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 63 63 N 5 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 62 62 N 5 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 62 62 N 5 2382 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 62 62 N 5 2382 3100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com