Detailed Predictions for: Eliminator Skyport
Launch Altitude (f): 3100
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

21 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Tue 62 62 N 5 988 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 63 63 N 5 988 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 64 64 N 5 1357 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 66 66 NW 6 2192 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 69 69 NW 6 3756 3100 0 Blue 2
9 AM Tue 72 72 NW 6 5608 3735 635 Blue 5
10 AM Tue 75 76 E 2 7543 6053 2953 Blue 9
11 AM Tue 77 79 E 2 8422 7467 4367 Blue 12
12 Noon Tue 77 79 E 2 8422 7467 4367 Blue 12
1 PM Tue 78 79 W 5 8422 7467 4367 Blue 12
2 PM Tue 79 80 W 5 8638 7918 4818 Blue 13
3 PM Tue 80 80 W 5 8638 7918 4818 Blue 13
4 PM Tue 81 81 W 5 8853 8167 5067 Blue 14
5 PM Tue 82 82 W 5 9067 8382 5282 Blue 15
6 PM Tue 83 83 W 5 9281 8596 5496 Blue 16
7 PM Tue 84 84 S 3 9523 8809 5709 Blue 17
8 PM Tue 84 84 S 3 9523 8809 5709 Blue 17
9 PM Tue 85 85 S 3 9869 9022 5922 Blue 18
10 PM Tue 85 85 SE 2 9869 9022 5922 Blue 18
11 PM Tue 85 85 SE 2 9869 9022 5922 Blue 18
12 Midnight Wed 84 84 SE 2 9523 8809 5709 Blue 17
1 AM Wed 84 84 S 3 9523 8809 5709 Blue 17
2 AM Wed 78 78 S 3 8206 7004 3904 Blue 11
3 AM Wed 74 74 S 3 6595 4998 1898 Blue 7
4 AM Wed 70 70 S 2 4317 3100 0 Blue 3
5 AM Wed 67 67 S 2 2601 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 66 66 S 2 2192 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 68 68 SE 5 3175 3100 0 Blue 1
8 AM Wed 72 72 SE 5 5608 3735 635 Blue 5
9 AM Wed 77 78 SE 5 8206 7004 3904 Blue 11
10 AM Wed 82 84 S 5 9523 8809 5709 Blue 17
11 AM Wed 83 86 S 5 10211 9235 6135 Blue 19
12 Noon Wed 83 86 S 5 10211 9235 6135 Blue 19
1 PM Wed 82 84 W 5 9523 8809 5709 Blue 17
2 PM Wed 81 83 W 5 9281 8596 5496 Blue 16
3 PM Wed 81 82 W 5 9067 8382 5282 Blue 15
4 PM Wed 82 82 SW 5 9067 8382 5282 Blue 15
5 PM Wed 82 82 SW 5 9067 8382 5282 Blue 15
6 PM Wed 82 82 SW 5 9067 8382 5282 Blue 15
7 PM Wed 82 82 S 2 9067 8382 5282 Blue 15
8 PM Wed 82 82 S 2 9067 8382 5282 Blue 15
9 PM Wed 82 82 S 2 9067 8382 5282 Blue 15
10 PM Wed 82 82 S 3 9067 8382 5282 Blue 15
11 PM Wed 80 80 S 3 8638 7918 4818 Blue 13
12 Midnight Thu 78 78 S 3 8206 7004 3904 Blue 11
1 AM Thu 75 75 SE 6 7071 5560 2460 Blue 8
2 AM Thu 72 72 SE 6 5608 3735 635 Blue 5
3 AM Thu 70 70 SE 6 4317 3100 0 Blue 3
4 AM Thu 68 68 E 1 3175 3100 0 Blue 1
5 AM Thu 67 67 E 1 2601 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 67 67 E 1 2601 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 68 68 E 1 3175 3100 0 Blue 1
8 AM Thu 70 70 E 1 4317 3100 0 Blue 3
9 AM Thu 71 72 E 1 5608 3735 635 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 73 74 N 3 6595 4998 1898 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 72 74 N 3 6595 4998 1898 Blue 7
12 Noon Thu 72 74 N 3 6595 4998 1898 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 73 75 N 3 7071 5560 2460 Blue 8
2 PM Thu 76 77 N 3 7966 6534 3434 Blue 10
3 PM Thu 79 79 N 3 8422 7467 4367 Blue 12
4 PM Thu 82 82 N 6 9067 8382 5282 Blue 15
5 PM Thu 82 82 N 6 9067 8382 5282 Blue 15
6 PM Thu 80 80 N 6 8638 7918 4818 Blue 13
7 PM Thu 78 78 N 6 8206 7004 3904 Blue 11
8 PM Thu 76 76 N 6 7543 6053 2953 Blue 9
9 PM Thu 75 75 N 6 7071 5560 2460 Blue 8
10 PM Thu 74 74 N 8 6595 4998 1898 Blue 7
11 PM Thu 72 72 N 8 5608 3735 635 Blue 5
12 Midnight Fri 70 70 N 8 4317 3100 0 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 69 69 N 8 3756 3100 0 Blue 2
2 AM Fri 70 70 N 8 4317 3100 0 Blue 3
3 AM Fri 70 70 N 8 4317 3100 0 Blue 3
4 AM Fri 69 69 N 8 3756 3100 0 Blue 2
5 AM Fri 67 67 N 8 2601 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 63 63 N 8 988 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 61 61 N 8 988 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 62 62 N 8 988 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 67 68 N 8 3175 3100 0 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 72 74 SW 5 6595 4998 1898 Blue 7
11 AM Fri 75 77 SW 5 7966 6534 3434 Blue 10
12 Noon Fri 75 77 SW 5 7966 6534 3434 Blue 10
1 PM Fri 74 76 SW 5 7543 6053 2953 Blue 9
2 PM Fri 73 74 SW 5 6595 4998 1898 Blue 7
3 PM Fri 72 72 SW 5 5608 3735 635 Blue 5
4 PM Fri 71 71 SW 5 5019 3165 65 Blue 4
5 PM Fri 69 69 SW 5 3756 3100 0 Blue 2
6 PM Fri 67 67 SW 5 2601 3100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 65 65 SW 5 1778 3100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 64 64 SW 5 1357 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 62 62 SW 5 988 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 61 61 SE 6 988 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 60 60 SE 6 988 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 60 60 SE 6 988 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 60 60 SE 6 988 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 61 61 SE 6 988 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 62 62 SE 6 988 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 63 63 SE 7 988 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 64 64 SE 7 1357 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 65 65 SE 7 1778 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 66 66 SE 7 2192 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 67 67 SE 7 2601 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 68 69 SE 7 3756 3100 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 69 70 SE 9 4317 3100 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 70 72 SE 9 5608 3735 635 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 71 73 SE 9 6108 4288 1188 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 72 74 SE 9 6595 4998 1898 Blue 7
2 PM Sat 72 73 SE 9 6108 4288 1188 Blue 6
3 PM Sat 72 72 SE 9 5608 3735 635 Blue 5
4 PM Sat 71 71 SE 8 5019 3165 65 Blue 4
5 PM Sat 69 69 SE 8 3756 3100 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sat 68 68 SE 8 3175 3100 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sat 66 66 SE 8 2192 3100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 64 64 SE 8 1357 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 62 62 SE 8 988 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 60 60 SE 6 988 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 59 59 SE 6 988 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 58 58 SE 6 988 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 57 57 SE 6 988 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 57 57 SE 6 988 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 57 57 SE 6 988 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 58 58 SE 5 988 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 58 58 SE 5 988 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 60 60 SE 5 988 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 61 61 SE 5 988 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 62 62 SE 5 988 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 64 64 SE 5 1357 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 65 66 W 10 2192 3100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 66 67 W 10 2601 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 67 69 W 10 3756 3100 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sun 68 69 W 10 3756 3100 0 Blue 2
2 PM Sun 68 69 W 10 3756 3100 0 Blue 2
3 PM Sun 68 68 W 10 3175 3100 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sun 67 67 W 9 2601 3100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 66 66 W 9 2192 3100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 64 64 W 9 1357 3100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 62 62 W 9 988 3100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 61 61 W 9 988 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 59 59 W 9 988 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 57 57 NW 5 988 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 56 56 NW 5 988 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 55 55 NW 5 988 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 54 54 NW 5 988 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 54 54 NW 5 988 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 54 54 NW 5 988 3100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com