Detailed Predictions for: Eliminator Skyport
Launch Altitude (f): 3100
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

24 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 66 66 SE 8 2487 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 63 63 SE 8 2487 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 64 64 SE 8 2487 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 66 66 SE 8 2487 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 68 69 SE 8 2505 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 71 74 SE 8 2850 3100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 74 79 S 7 3529 3154 54 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 75 81 S 7 4268 3407 307 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 76 83 S 7 4676 3856 756 Blue 8
2 PM Sat 77 83 S 10 4676 3856 756 Blue 8
3 PM Sat 78 83 S 10 4676 3856 756 Blue 8
4 PM Sat 77 81 S 10 4268 3407 307 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 77 79 SW 9 3529 3154 54 Blue 4
6 PM Sat 77 78 SW 9 3410 3100 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 77 77 SW 9 3291 3100 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 76 76 S 10 3157 3100 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sat 76 76 S 10 3157 3100 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sat 75 75 S 10 2973 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 73 73 SE 5 2781 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 72 72 SE 5 2712 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 73 73 SE 5 2781 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 72 72 SE 5 2712 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 71 71 SE 5 2643 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 70 70 SE 5 2574 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 70 70 SE 2 2574 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 68 68 SE 2 2487 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 69 69 SE 2 2505 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 71 71 NW 1 2643 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 73 75 NW 1 2973 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 76 79 NW 1 3529 3154 54 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 79 84 W 8 4879 4258 1158 Blue 9
12 Noon Sun 79 86 W 8 5811 4663 1563 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 80 87 W 8 6273 4864 1764 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 81 88 W 10 7625 5299 2199 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 82 88 W 10 7625 5299 2199 Blue 13
4 PM Sun 81 85 W 10 5339 4460 1360 Blue 10
5 PM Sun 81 83 W 10 4676 3856 756 Blue 8
6 PM Sun 81 81 W 10 4268 3407 307 Blue 6
7 PM Sun 81 81 W 10 4268 3407 307 Blue 6
8 PM Sun 79 79 NW 8 3529 3154 54 Blue 4
9 PM Sun 80 80 NW 8 3876 3289 189 Blue 5
10 PM Sun 79 79 NW 8 3529 3154 54 Blue 4
11 PM Sun 77 77 N 3 3291 3100 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Mon 76 76 N 3 3157 3100 0 Blue 1
1 AM Mon 77 77 N 3 3291 3100 0 Blue 2
2 AM Mon 75 75 N 3 2973 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 74 74 N 3 2850 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 73 73 N 3 2781 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 73 73 N 3 2781 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 71 71 N 3 2643 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 72 72 N 3 2712 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 74 74 N 3 2850 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 75 76 N 3 3157 3100 0 Blue 1
10 AM Mon 78 79 N 3 3529 3154 54 Blue 4
11 AM Mon 80 83 SW 7 4676 3856 756 Blue 8
12 Noon Mon 80 84 SW 7 4879 4258 1158 Blue 9
1 PM Mon 81 86 SW 7 5811 4663 1563 Blue 11
2 PM Mon 82 86 SW 7 5811 4663 1563 Blue 11
3 PM Mon 83 87 SW 7 6273 4864 1764 Blue 12
4 PM Mon 82 84 SW 7 4879 4258 1158 Blue 9
5 PM Mon 82 83 SW 7 4676 3856 756 Blue 8
6 PM Mon 81 81 SW 7 4268 3407 307 Blue 6
7 PM Mon 82 82 SW 7 4472 3525 425 Blue 7
8 PM Mon 80 80 SW 7 3876 3289 189 Blue 5
9 PM Mon 81 81 SW 7 4268 3407 307 Blue 6
10 PM Mon 79 79 SW 7 3529 3154 54 Blue 4
11 PM Mon 77 77 NE 7 3291 3100 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Tue 75 75 NE 7 2973 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 77 77 NE 7 3291 3100 0 Blue 2
2 AM Tue 75 75 NE 7 2973 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 74 74 NE 7 2850 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 73 73 NE 7 2781 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 72 72 NE 7 2712 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 70 70 NE 7 2574 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 71 71 NE 7 2643 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 73 73 NE 7 2781 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 74 76 NE 7 3157 3100 0 Blue 1
10 AM Tue 77 80 NE 7 3876 3289 189 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 80 85 W 9 5339 4460 1360 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 80 87 W 9 6273 4864 1764 Blue 12
1 PM Tue 81 88 W 9 7625 5299 2199 Blue 13
2 PM Tue 82 89 W 9 7803 5765 2665 Blue 14
3 PM Tue 83 89 W 9 7803 5765 2665 Blue 14
4 PM Tue 82 86 W 9 5811 4663 1563 Blue 11
5 PM Tue 81 83 W 9 4676 3856 756 Blue 8
6 PM Tue 81 82 W 9 4472 3525 425 Blue 7
7 PM Tue 82 82 W 9 4472 3525 425 Blue 7
8 PM Tue 80 80 W 9 3876 3289 189 Blue 5
9 PM Tue 81 81 W 9 4268 3407 307 Blue 6
10 PM Tue 79 79 W 9 3529 3154 54 Blue 4
11 PM Tue 76 76 NE 3 3157 3100 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Wed 75 75 NE 3 2973 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 76 76 NE 3 3157 3100 0 Blue 1
2 AM Wed 74 74 NE 3 2850 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 73 73 NE 3 2781 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 72 72 NE 3 2712 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 71 71 NE 3 2643 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 69 69 NE 3 2505 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 70 70 NE 3 2574 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 72 72 NE 3 2712 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 73 74 NE 3 2850 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 76 79 NE 3 3529 3154 54 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 79 84 W 10 4879 4258 1158 Blue 9
12 Noon Wed 79 86 W 10 5811 4663 1563 Blue 11
1 PM Wed 80 87 W 10 6273 4864 1764 Blue 12
2 PM Wed 81 88 W 10 7625 5299 2199 Blue 13
3 PM Wed 82 88 W 10 7625 5299 2199 Blue 13
4 PM Wed 81 85 W 10 5339 4460 1360 Blue 10
5 PM Wed 80 82 W 10 4472 3525 425 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 80 81 W 10 4268 3407 307 Blue 6
7 PM Wed 81 81 W 10 4268 3407 307 Blue 6
8 PM Wed 79 79 W 10 3529 3154 54 Blue 4
9 PM Wed 80 80 W 10 3876 3289 189 Blue 5
10 PM Wed 78 78 W 10 3410 3100 0 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 75 75 NE 6 2973 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 74 74 NE 6 2850 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 75 75 NE 6 2973 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 73 73 NE 6 2781 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 72 72 NE 6 2712 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 71 71 NE 6 2643 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 70 70 NE 6 2574 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 68 68 NE 6 2487 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 69 69 NE 6 2505 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 71 71 NE 6 2643 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 73 74 NE 6 2850 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 76 79 NE 6 3529 3154 54 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 79 84 W 8 4879 4258 1158 Blue 9
12 Noon Thu 80 87 W 8 6273 4864 1764 Blue 12
1 PM Thu 81 88 W 8 7625 5299 2199 Blue 13
2 PM Thu 82 89 W 8 7803 5765 2665 Blue 14
3 PM Thu 83 89 W 8 7803 5765 2665 Blue 14
4 PM Thu 82 86 W 8 5811 4663 1563 Blue 11
5 PM Thu 81 83 W 8 4676 3856 756 Blue 8
6 PM Thu 81 82 W 8 4472 3525 425 Blue 7
7 PM Thu 82 82 W 8 4472 3525 425 Blue 7
8 PM Thu 80 80 W 8 3876 3289 189 Blue 5
9 PM Thu 81 81 W 8 4268 3407 307 Blue 6
10 PM Thu 79 79 W 8 3529 3154 54 Blue 4
11 PM Thu 76 76 N 6 3157 3100 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Fri 75 75 N 6 2973 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 76 76 N 6 3157 3100 0 Blue 1
2 AM Fri 74 74 N 6 2850 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 73 73 N 6 2781 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 72 72 N 6 2712 3100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com