Detailed Predictions for: Eliminator Skyport
Launch Altitude (f): 3100
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

16 FEB 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sat 38 38 N 18 1640 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 38 38 N 18 1640 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 37 37 N 18 875 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 38 38 N 18 1640 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 38 38 N 18 1640 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 40 40 N 18 3162 3100 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 42 43 NW 22 4266 3156 56 White 4
11 AM Sat 44 46 NW 22 4920 4920 1820 White 7
12 Noon Sat 45 47 NW 22 5134 5134 2034 White 8
1 PM Sat 46 48 NW 22 5349 5349 2249 White 9
2 PM Sat 46 47 NW 22 5134 5134 2034 White 8
3 PM Sat 44 45 NW 22 4702 4702 1602 White 6
4 PM Sat 44 44 NW 22 4484 4484 1384 White 5
5 PM Sat 42 42 NW 22 4044 3100 0 White 3
6 PM Sat 42 42 NW 22 4044 3100 0 White 3
7 PM Sat 40 40 NW 22 3162 3100 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sat 38 38 NW 22 1640 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 36 36 NW 22 801 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 38 38 NW 16 1640 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 37 37 NW 16 875 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 38 38 NW 16 1640 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 38 38 NW 16 1640 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 35 35 NW 16 801 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 36 36 NW 16 801 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 35 35 NW 15 801 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 36 36 NW 15 801 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 35 35 NW 15 801 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 36 36 NW 15 801 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 36 36 NW 15 801 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 38 38 NW 15 1640 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 39 39 NW 21 2360 3100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 41 42 NW 21 4044 3100 0 White 3
12 Noon Sun 41 42 NW 21 4044 3100 0 White 3
1 PM Sun 42 43 NW 21 4266 3156 56 White 4
2 PM Sun 42 42 NW 21 4044 3100 0 White 3
3 PM Sun 40 40 NW 21 3162 3100 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sun 40 40 NW 21 3162 3100 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sun 38 38 NW 21 1640 3100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 37 37 NW 21 875 3100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 36 36 NW 21 801 3100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 33 33 NW 21 801 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 31 31 NW 21 801 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 33 33 N 15 801 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 32 32 N 15 801 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 33 33 N 15 801 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 33 33 N 15 801 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 30 30 N 15 801 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 31 31 N 15 801 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 31 31 N 15 801 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 31 31 N 15 801 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 31 31 N 15 801 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 31 31 N 15 801 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 32 32 N 15 801 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 35 36 N 15 801 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 38 40 NW 10 3162 3100 0 Blue 1
11 AM Mon 42 45 NW 10 4702 4702 1602 White 6
12 Noon Mon 44 47 NW 10 5134 5134 2034 White 8
1 PM Mon 45 48 NW 10 5349 5349 2249 White 9
2 PM Mon 45 47 NW 10 5134 5134 2034 White 8
3 PM Mon 43 44 NW 10 4484 4484 1384 White 5
4 PM Mon 43 43 NW 13 4266 3156 56 White 4
5 PM Mon 41 41 NW 13 3825 3100 0 White 2
6 PM Mon 40 40 NW 13 3162 3100 0 Blue 1
7 PM Mon 39 39 NW 13 2360 3100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 36 36 NW 13 801 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 35 35 NW 13 801 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 36 36 N 13 801 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 36 36 N 13 801 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 36 36 N 13 801 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 36 36 N 13 801 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 33 33 N 13 801 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 34 34 N 13 801 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 34 34 N 12 801 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 34 34 N 12 801 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 34 34 N 12 801 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 34 34 N 12 801 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 35 35 N 12 801 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 38 39 N 12 2360 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 40 42 W 10 4044 3100 0 White 3
11 AM Tue 44 47 W 10 5134 5134 2034 White 8
12 Noon Tue 45 49 W 10 5563 5563 2463 White 10
1 PM Tue 46 49 W 10 5563 5563 2463 White 10
2 PM Tue 46 48 W 10 5349 5349 2249 White 9
3 PM Tue 44 45 W 10 4702 4702 1602 White 6
4 PM Tue 44 44 W 9 4484 4484 1384 White 5
5 PM Tue 43 43 W 9 4266 3156 56 White 4
6 PM Tue 42 42 W 9 4044 3100 0 White 3
7 PM Tue 41 41 W 9 3825 3100 0 White 2
8 PM Tue 39 39 W 9 2360 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 38 38 W 9 1640 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 39 39 N 8 2360 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 38 38 N 8 1640 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 39 39 N 8 2360 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 39 39 N 8 2360 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 36 36 N 8 801 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 37 37 N 8 875 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 37 37 N 8 875 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 37 37 N 8 875 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 37 37 N 8 875 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 37 37 N 8 875 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 38 38 N 8 1640 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 40 41 N 8 3825 3100 0 White 2
10 AM Wed 42 43 W 10 4266 3156 56 White 4
11 AM Wed 45 47 W 10 5134 5134 2034 White 8
12 Noon Wed 46 48 W 10 5349 5349 2249 White 9
1 PM Wed 47 49 W 10 5563 5563 2463 White 10
2 PM Wed 47 48 W 10 5349 5349 2249 White 9
3 PM Wed 45 46 W 10 4920 4920 1820 White 7
4 PM Wed 45 45 W 12 4702 4702 1602 White 6
5 PM Wed 44 44 W 12 4484 4484 1384 White 5
6 PM Wed 43 43 W 12 4266 3156 56 White 4
7 PM Wed 42 42 W 12 4044 3100 0 White 3
8 PM Wed 39 39 W 12 2360 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 38 38 W 12 1640 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 40 40 NW 9 3162 3100 0 Blue 1
11 PM Wed 39 39 NW 9 2360 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 39 39 NW 9 2360 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 39 39 NW 9 2360 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 37 37 NW 9 875 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 37 37 NW 9 875 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 37 37 NW 17 875 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 37 37 NW 17 875 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 37 37 NW 17 875 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 37 37 NW 17 875 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 38 38 NW 17 1640 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 39 39 NW 17 2360 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 40 41 NW 17 3825 3100 0 White 2
11 AM Thu 41 42 NW 17 4044 3100 0 White 3
12 Noon Thu 42 44 NW 17 4484 4484 1384 White 5
1 PM Thu 42 43 NW 17 4266 3156 56 White 4
2 PM Thu 42 43 NW 17 4266 3156 56 White 4
3 PM Thu 40 40 NW 17 3162 3100 0 Blue 1
4 PM Thu 40 40 NW 17 3162 3100 0 Blue 1
5 PM Thu 39 39 NW 17 2360 3100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 38 38 NW 17 1640 3100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 37 37 NW 17 875 3100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 34 34 NW 17 801 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 33 33 NW 17 801 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 35 35 NW 16 801 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 34 34 NW 16 801 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 34 34 NW 16 801 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 34 34 NW 16 801 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 32 32 NW 16 801 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 33 33 NW 16 801 3100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com