Detailed Predictions for: Eliminator Skyport
Launch Altitude (f): 3100
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

19 JUN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 59 59 N 13 2552 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 59 59 N 13 2552 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 59 59 N 13 2552 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 64 65 NE 5 2601 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 67 69 NE 5 3259 3100 0 Blue 1
10 AM Tue 69 73 NE 5 5979 3847 747 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 71 77 SE 3 6636 6125 3025 Blue 9
12 Noon Tue 75 83 SE 3 7539 7323 4223 Blue 15
1 PM Tue 77 85 SE 3 7675 7460 4360 Blue 17
2 PM Tue 81 89 W 10 7949 7732 4632 Blue 21
3 PM Tue 82 88 W 10 7881 7664 4564 Blue 20
4 PM Tue 82 87 W 10 7812 7596 4496 Blue 19
5 PM Tue 81 84 W 14 7607 7391 4291 Blue 16
6 PM Tue 81 82 W 14 7470 7140 4040 Blue 14
7 PM Tue 79 79 W 14 7197 6452 3352 Blue 11
8 PM Tue 77 77 N 20 6636 6125 3025 Blue 9
9 PM Tue 75 75 N 20 6308 4940 1840 Blue 7
10 PM Tue 75 75 N 20 6308 4940 1840 Blue 7
11 PM Tue 74 74 N 16 6143 4426 1326 Blue 6
12 Midnight Wed 74 74 N 16 6143 4426 1326 Blue 6
1 AM Wed 73 73 N 16 5979 3847 747 Blue 5
2 AM Wed 72 72 NE 10 5016 3246 146 Blue 4
3 AM Wed 71 71 NE 10 4459 3100 0 Blue 3
4 AM Wed 70 70 NE 10 3870 3100 0 Blue 2
5 AM Wed 70 70 NE 10 3870 3100 0 Blue 2
6 AM Wed 70 70 NE 10 3870 3100 0 Blue 2
7 AM Wed 70 70 NE 10 3870 3100 0 Blue 2
8 AM Wed 73 74 NE 6 6143 4426 1326 Blue 6
9 AM Wed 75 78 NE 6 6808 6289 3189 Blue 10
10 AM Wed 76 81 NE 6 7402 6778 3678 Blue 13
11 AM Wed 77 83 SE 3 7539 7323 4223 Blue 15
12 Noon Wed 79 87 SE 3 7812 7596 4496 Blue 19
1 PM Wed 80 88 SE 3 7881 7664 4564 Blue 20
2 PM Wed 82 90 W 8 8083 7801 4701 Blue 22
3 PM Wed 83 89 W 8 7949 7732 4632 Blue 21
4 PM Wed 83 88 W 8 7881 7664 4564 Blue 20
5 PM Wed 82 85 W 13 7675 7460 4360 Blue 17
6 PM Wed 82 83 W 13 7539 7323 4223 Blue 15
7 PM Wed 79 79 W 13 7197 6452 3352 Blue 11
8 PM Wed 76 76 W 13 6472 5888 2788 Blue 8
9 PM Wed 74 74 W 13 6143 4426 1326 Blue 6
10 PM Wed 74 74 W 13 6143 4426 1326 Blue 6
11 PM Wed 73 73 N 14 5979 3847 747 Blue 5
12 Midnight Thu 73 73 N 14 5979 3847 747 Blue 5
1 AM Thu 72 72 N 14 5016 3246 146 Blue 4
2 AM Thu 70 70 NE 12 3870 3100 0 Blue 2
3 AM Thu 69 69 NE 12 3259 3100 0 Blue 1
4 AM Thu 68 68 NE 12 2770 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 68 68 NE 3 2770 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 68 68 NE 3 2770 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 68 68 NE 3 2770 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 71 72 NE 3 5016 3246 146 Blue 4
9 AM Thu 73 76 NE 3 6472 5888 2788 Blue 8
10 AM Thu 75 80 NE 3 7334 6615 3515 Blue 12
11 AM Thu 76 83 E 1 7539 7323 4223 Blue 15
12 Noon Thu 79 87 E 1 7812 7596 4496 Blue 19
1 PM Thu 80 89 E 1 7949 7732 4632 Blue 21
2 PM Thu 82 90 SW 8 8083 7801 4701 Blue 22
3 PM Thu 83 90 SW 8 8083 7801 4701 Blue 22
4 PM Thu 83 88 SW 8 7881 7664 4564 Blue 20
5 PM Thu 82 85 SW 8 7675 7460 4360 Blue 17
6 PM Thu 82 83 SW 8 7539 7323 4223 Blue 15
7 PM Thu 79 79 SW 8 7197 6452 3352 Blue 11
8 PM Thu 76 76 SW 8 6472 5888 2788 Blue 8
9 PM Thu 74 74 SW 8 6143 4426 1326 Blue 6
10 PM Thu 74 74 SW 8 6143 4426 1326 Blue 6
11 PM Thu 72 72 N 17 5016 3246 146 Blue 4
12 Midnight Fri 72 72 N 17 5016 3246 146 Blue 4
1 AM Fri 71 71 N 17 4459 3100 0 Blue 3
2 AM Fri 69 69 N 17 3259 3100 0 Blue 1
3 AM Fri 69 69 N 17 3259 3100 0 Blue 1
4 AM Fri 67 67 N 17 2675 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 67 67 N 13 2675 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 67 67 N 13 2675 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 67 67 N 13 2675 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 70 71 N 13 4459 3100 0 Blue 3
9 AM Fri 72 75 N 13 6308 4940 1840 Blue 7
10 AM Fri 74 79 N 13 7197 6452 3352 Blue 11
11 AM Fri 75 82 W 10 7470 7140 4040 Blue 14
12 Noon Fri 78 86 W 10 7744 7528 4428 Blue 18
1 PM Fri 79 88 W 10 7881 7664 4564 Blue 20
2 PM Fri 81 89 W 10 7949 7732 4632 Blue 21
3 PM Fri 82 89 W 10 7949 7732 4632 Blue 21
4 PM Fri 82 87 W 10 7812 7596 4496 Blue 19
5 PM Fri 81 84 W 10 7607 7391 4291 Blue 16
6 PM Fri 81 82 W 10 7470 7140 4040 Blue 14
7 PM Fri 78 78 W 10 6808 6289 3189 Blue 10
8 PM Fri 75 75 W 10 6308 4940 1840 Blue 7
9 PM Fri 73 73 W 10 5979 3847 747 Blue 5
10 PM Fri 73 73 W 10 5979 3847 747 Blue 5
11 PM Fri 72 72 N 3 5016 3246 146 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sat 72 72 N 3 5016 3246 146 Blue 4
1 AM Sat 71 71 N 3 4459 3100 0 Blue 3
2 AM Sat 69 69 N 3 3259 3100 0 Blue 1
3 AM Sat 68 68 N 3 2770 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 67 67 N 3 2675 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 67 67 NE 3 2675 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 67 67 NE 3 2675 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 67 67 NE 3 2675 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 70 71 NE 3 4459 3100 0 Blue 3
9 AM Sat 72 75 NE 3 6308 4940 1840 Blue 7
10 AM Sat 73 78 NE 3 6808 6289 3189 Blue 10
11 AM Sat 74 80 W 9 7334 6615 3515 Blue 12
12 Noon Sat 76 84 W 9 7607 7391 4291 Blue 16
1 PM Sat 77 85 W 9 7675 7460 4360 Blue 17
2 PM Sat 79 87 W 9 7812 7596 4496 Blue 19
3 PM Sat 80 86 W 9 7744 7528 4428 Blue 18
4 PM Sat 80 85 W 9 7675 7460 4360 Blue 17
5 PM Sat 79 82 W 8 7470 7140 4040 Blue 14
6 PM Sat 79 80 W 8 7334 6615 3515 Blue 12
7 PM Sat 76 76 W 8 6472 5888 2788 Blue 8
8 PM Sat 73 73 W 8 5979 3847 747 Blue 5
9 PM Sat 71 71 W 8 4459 3100 0 Blue 3
10 PM Sat 71 71 W 8 4459 3100 0 Blue 3
11 PM Sat 69 69 E 5 3259 3100 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sun 69 69 E 5 3259 3100 0 Blue 1
1 AM Sun 68 68 E 5 2770 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 66 66 E 5 2638 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 66 66 E 5 2638 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 64 64 E 5 2564 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 64 64 E 7 2564 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 64 64 E 7 2564 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 64 64 E 7 2564 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 66 67 E 7 2675 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 68 71 E 7 4459 3100 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 68 73 E 7 5979 3847 747 Blue 5
11 AM Sun 69 75 SE 12 6308 4940 1840 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 71 79 SE 12 7197 6452 3352 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 72 80 SE 12 7334 6615 3515 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 74 82 SE 12 7470 7140 4040 Blue 14
3 PM Sun 74 80 SE 12 7334 6615 3515 Blue 12
4 PM Sun 74 79 SE 12 7197 6452 3352 Blue 11
5 PM Sun 73 76 SE 12 6472 5888 2788 Blue 8
6 PM Sun 73 74 SE 12 6143 4426 1326 Blue 6
7 PM Sun 71 71 SE 12 4459 3100 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sun 68 68 SE 12 2770 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 67 67 SE 12 2675 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 67 67 SE 12 2675 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 65 65 E 6 2601 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 65 65 E 6 2601 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 64 64 E 6 2564 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 63 63 E 6 2552 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 62 62 E 6 2552 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 61 61 E 6 2552 3100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com