Detailed Predictions for: Eliminator Skyport
Launch Altitude (f): 3100
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 60 60 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 60 60 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 61 61 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 62 63 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 63 65 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 64 67 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 66 70 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 67 72 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 69 74 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 68 73 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 68 72 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 68 70 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 68 69 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 66 66 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 65 65 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 64 64 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 63 63 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 62 62 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 62 62 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 61 61 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 60 60 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 59 59 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 59 59 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 60 60 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 59 59 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 59 59 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 60 60 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 62 62 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 62 64 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 63 66 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 66 70 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 67 72 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 69 74 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 68 73 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 68 72 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 68 70 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 68 69 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 66 66 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 65 65 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 64 64 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 63 63 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 62 62 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 62 62 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 61 61 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 60 60 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 59 59 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 59 59 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 60 60 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 59 59 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 59 59 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 60 60 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 61 61 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 62 63 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 63 66 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 65 69 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 66 71 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 68 73 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 67 72 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 67 71 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 67 69 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 67 68 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 65 65 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 64 64 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 63 63 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 62 62 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 61 61 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 61 61 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 60 60 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 59 59 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 58 58 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 58 58 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 59 59 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 58 58 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 58 58 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 58 58 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 59 59 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 60 61 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 60 62 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 61 64 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 62 66 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 63 67 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 62 66 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 62 65 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 62 64 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 61 62 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 60 60 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 58 58 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 57 57 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 56 56 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 55 55 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 55 55 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 54 54 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 53 53 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 52 52 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 52 52 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 53 53 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 52 52 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 52 52 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 52 52 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 53 53 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 54 54 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 54 55 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 55 58 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 56 60 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 57 61 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 56 60 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 56 59 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 56 58 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 56 57 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 55 55 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 53 53 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 52 52 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 52 52 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 50 50 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 50 50 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 50 50 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 49 49 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 48 48 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 48 48 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 49 49 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 48 48 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 48 48 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 49 49 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 50 50 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 51 52 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 52 54 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 53 58 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 54 60 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 56 63 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 55 61 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 55 60 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 55 58 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 55 57 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 53 53 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 52 52 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 51 51 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 50 50 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 49 49 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 49 49 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 48 48 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 47 47 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 46 46 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 46 46 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 47 47 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com