Detailed Predictions for: Garlock
Launch Altitude (f): 4770
LZ Altitude (f): 1970
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

19 AUG 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 73 73 NW 2 3100 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 73 73 NW 2 3100 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 76 76 NW 2 3100 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 81 82 S 3 4773 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 83 85 S 3 7902 4770 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 85 89 S 3 9441 8404 3634 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 89 95 S 9 11530 10479 5709 Blue 13
12 Noon Sun 92 99 S 9 13479 11768 6998 Blue 17
1 PM Sun 94 102 S 9 15249 13283 8513 Blue 20
2 PM Sun 96 103 SW 13 15714 13894 9124 Blue 21
3 PM Sun 98 104 SW 13 16150 14479 9709 Blue 22
4 PM Sun 98 102 SW 13 15249 13283 8513 Blue 20
5 PM Sun 97 99 W 10 13479 11768 6998 Blue 17
6 PM Sun 96 97 W 10 12168 11130 6360 Blue 15
7 PM Sun 93 93 W 10 10879 9703 4933 Blue 11
8 PM Sun 89 89 W 12 9441 8404 3634 Blue 7
9 PM Sun 87 87 W 12 8785 7189 2419 Blue 5
10 PM Sun 84 84 W 12 7259 4770 0 Blue 2
11 PM Sun 82 82 W 8 4773 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 81 81 W 8 3651 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 80 80 W 8 3100 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 78 78 SW 2 3100 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 76 76 SW 2 3100 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 75 75 SW 2 3100 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 73 73 SW 3 3100 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 71 71 SW 3 3100 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 74 74 SW 3 3100 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 79 80 SW 5 3100 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 81 83 SW 5 6163 4770 0 Blue 1
10 AM Mon 83 87 SW 5 8785 7189 2419 Blue 5
11 AM Mon 87 93 S 12 10879 9703 4933 Blue 11
12 Noon Mon 90 97 S 12 12168 11130 6360 Blue 15
1 PM Mon 92 100 S 12 14094 12083 7313 Blue 18
2 PM Mon 94 101 SW 21 14683 12641 7871 Blue 19
3 PM Mon 96 102 SW 21 15249 13283 8513 Blue 20
4 PM Mon 96 100 SW 21 14094 12083 7313 Blue 18
5 PM Mon 95 97 SW 18 12168 11130 6360 Blue 15
6 PM Mon 94 95 SW 18 11530 10479 5709 Blue 13
7 PM Mon 91 91 SW 18 10084 9060 4290 Blue 9
8 PM Mon 87 87 SW 14 8785 7189 2419 Blue 5
9 PM Mon 85 85 SW 14 7902 4770 0 Blue 3
10 PM Mon 82 82 SW 14 4773 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 81 81 SW 12 3651 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 80 80 SW 12 3100 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 79 79 SW 12 3100 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 77 77 SW 10 3100 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 75 75 SW 10 3100 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 74 74 SW 10 3100 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 72 72 SW 8 3100 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 70 70 SW 8 3100 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 72 72 SW 8 3100 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 77 77 SW 8 3100 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 79 81 SW 8 3651 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 81 84 SW 8 7259 4770 0 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 85 91 SW 20 10084 9060 4290 Blue 9
12 Noon Tue 88 95 SW 20 11530 10479 5709 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 91 98 SW 20 12833 11450 6680 Blue 16
2 PM Tue 92 99 SW 20 13479 11768 6998 Blue 17
3 PM Tue 94 100 SW 20 14094 12083 7313 Blue 18
4 PM Tue 94 98 SW 20 12833 11450 6680 Blue 16
5 PM Tue 93 95 SW 17 11530 10479 5709 Blue 13
6 PM Tue 92 92 SW 17 10549 9383 4613 Blue 10
7 PM Tue 89 89 SW 17 9441 8404 3634 Blue 7
8 PM Tue 85 85 SW 17 7902 4770 0 Blue 3
9 PM Tue 83 83 SW 17 6163 4770 0 Blue 1
10 PM Tue 81 81 SW 17 3651 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 79 79 SW 9 3100 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 78 78 SW 9 3100 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 77 77 SW 9 3100 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 76 76 SW 9 3100 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 74 74 SW 9 3100 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 73 73 SW 9 3100 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 71 71 SW 5 3100 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 69 69 SW 5 3100 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 72 72 SW 5 3100 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 77 78 SW 5 3100 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 79 81 SW 5 3651 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 81 85 SW 5 7902 4770 0 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 85 91 SW 17 10084 9060 4290 Blue 9
12 Noon Wed 88 95 SW 17 11530 10479 5709 Blue 13
1 PM Wed 90 98 SW 17 12833 11450 6680 Blue 16
2 PM Wed 92 99 SW 17 13479 11768 6998 Blue 17
3 PM Wed 94 100 SW 17 14094 12083 7313 Blue 18
4 PM Wed 94 98 SW 17 12833 11450 6680 Blue 16
5 PM Wed 93 95 SW 20 11530 10479 5709 Blue 13
6 PM Wed 92 93 SW 20 10879 9703 4933 Blue 11
7 PM Wed 89 89 SW 20 9441 8404 3634 Blue 7
8 PM Wed 85 85 SW 20 7902 4770 0 Blue 3
9 PM Wed 83 83 SW 20 6163 4770 0 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 80 80 SW 20 3100 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 79 79 W 12 3100 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 78 78 W 12 3100 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 77 77 W 12 3100 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 75 75 W 12 3100 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 73 73 W 12 3100 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 72 72 W 12 3100 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 70 70 W 6 3100 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 68 68 W 6 3100 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 71 71 W 6 3100 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 76 77 W 6 3100 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 78 80 W 6 3100 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 80 84 W 6 7259 4770 0 Blue 2
11 AM Thu 84 90 SW 16 9764 8733 3963 Blue 8
12 Noon Thu 88 95 SW 16 11530 10479 5709 Blue 13
1 PM Thu 90 98 SW 16 12833 11450 6680 Blue 16
2 PM Thu 92 99 SW 16 13479 11768 6998 Blue 17
3 PM Thu 94 100 SW 16 14094 12083 7313 Blue 18
4 PM Thu 94 98 SW 16 12833 11450 6680 Blue 16
5 PM Thu 93 95 SW 21 11530 10479 5709 Blue 13
6 PM Thu 92 93 SW 21 10879 9703 4933 Blue 11
7 PM Thu 89 89 SW 21 9441 8404 3634 Blue 7
8 PM Thu 85 85 SW 21 7902 4770 0 Blue 3
9 PM Thu 83 83 SW 21 6163 4770 0 Blue 1
10 PM Thu 80 80 SW 21 3100 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 78 78 W 13 3100 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 77 77 W 13 3100 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 76 76 W 13 3100 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 74 74 W 13 3100 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 72 72 W 13 3100 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 71 71 W 13 3100 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 69 69 W 7 3100 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 67 67 W 7 3100 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 70 70 W 7 3100 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 75 76 W 7 3100 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 77 79 W 7 3100 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 80 84 W 7 7259 4770 0 Blue 2
11 AM Fri 84 90 SW 18 9764 8733 3963 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 87 94 SW 18 11206 10020 5250 Blue 12
1 PM Fri 90 98 SW 18 12833 11450 6680 Blue 16
2 PM Fri 92 99 SW 18 13479 11768 6998 Blue 17
3 PM Fri 94 100 SW 18 14094 12083 7313 Blue 18
4 PM Fri 94 98 SW 18 12833 11450 6680 Blue 16
5 PM Fri 93 95 W 22 11530 10479 5709 Blue 13
6 PM Fri 92 93 W 22 10879 9703 4933 Blue 11
7 PM Fri 89 89 W 22 9441 8404 3634 Blue 7
8 PM Fri 85 85 W 22 7902 4770 0 Blue 3
9 PM Fri 83 83 W 22 6163 4770 0 Blue 1
10 PM Fri 80 80 W 22 3100 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 79 79 W 12 3100 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 78 78 W 12 3100 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 77 77 W 12 3100 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 75 75 W 12 3100 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 73 73 W 12 3100 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 72 72 W 12 3100 4770 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com