Detailed Predictions for: Garlock
Launch Altitude (f): 4770
LZ Altitude (f): 1970
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

16 FEB 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sat 35 35 W 26 4602 4770 0 White 1
5 AM Sat 35 35 W 26 4602 4770 0 White 1
6 AM Sat 34 34 W 26 4050 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 34 34 W 25 4050 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 35 35 W 25 4602 4770 0 White 1
9 AM Sat 38 39 W 25 5483 5098 328 White 5
10 AM Sat 39 40 W 29 5701 5425 655 White 6
11 AM Sat 40 42 W 29 6136 6070 1300 White 8
12 Noon Sat 41 43 W 29 6352 6352 1582 White 9
1 PM Sat 41 43 W 32 6352 6352 1582 White 9
2 PM Sat 41 42 W 32 6136 6070 1300 White 8
3 PM Sat 41 42 W 32 6136 6070 1300 White 8
4 PM Sat 40 40 W 31 5701 5425 655 White 6
5 PM Sat 39 39 W 31 5483 5098 328 White 5
6 PM Sat 37 37 W 31 5045 4770 0 White 3
7 PM Sat 35 35 W 31 4602 4770 0 White 1
8 PM Sat 34 34 W 31 4050 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 34 34 W 31 4050 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 33 33 W 25 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 34 34 W 25 4050 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 34 34 W 25 4050 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 34 34 W 26 4050 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 33 33 W 26 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 33 33 W 26 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 32 32 W 21 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 33 33 W 21 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 32 32 W 21 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 32 32 SW 17 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 34 34 SW 17 4050 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 36 36 SW 17 4824 4770 0 White 2
10 AM Sun 38 39 W 23 5483 5098 328 White 5
11 AM Sun 39 41 W 23 5919 5749 979 White 7
12 Noon Sun 39 41 W 23 5919 5749 979 White 7
1 PM Sun 39 41 W 29 5919 5749 979 White 7
2 PM Sun 39 40 W 29 5701 5425 655 White 6
3 PM Sun 38 38 W 29 5264 4770 0 White 4
4 PM Sun 37 37 W 25 5045 4770 0 White 3
5 PM Sun 36 36 W 25 4824 4770 0 White 2
6 PM Sun 34 34 W 25 4050 4770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 33 33 W 18 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 32 32 W 18 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 32 32 W 18 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 32 32 W 14 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 32 32 W 14 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 32 32 W 14 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 32 32 NW 13 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 32 32 NW 13 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 31 31 NW 13 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 31 31 NW 14 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 30 30 NW 14 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 30 30 NW 14 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 30 30 NW 10 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 32 32 NW 10 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 35 36 NW 10 4824 4770 0 White 2
10 AM Mon 37 39 NW 13 5483 5098 328 White 5
11 AM Mon 38 41 NW 14 5919 5749 979 White 7
12 Noon Mon 39 42 NW 14 6136 6070 1300 White 8
1 PM Mon 39 42 NW 14 6136 6070 1300 White 8
2 PM Mon 39 41 NW 14 5919 5749 979 White 7
3 PM Mon 40 41 NW 14 5919 5749 979 White 7
4 PM Mon 39 39 NW 13 5483 5098 328 White 5
5 PM Mon 38 38 NW 12 5264 4770 0 White 4
6 PM Mon 36 36 NW 12 4824 4770 0 White 2
7 PM Mon 34 34 NW 10 4050 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 33 33 NW 9 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 32 32 NW 9 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 31 31 NW 9 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 31 31 NW 9 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 31 31 NW 10 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 31 31 NW 10 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 30 30 NW 10 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 30 30 NW 9 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 29 29 NW 9 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 29 29 NW 9 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 28 28 N 9 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 29 29 N 9 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 31 31 N 9 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 33 34 N 10 4050 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 35 38 N 10 5264 4770 0 White 4
11 AM Tue 36 40 N 10 5701 5425 655 White 6
12 Noon Tue 37 41 N 10 5919 5749 979 White 7
1 PM Tue 38 42 N 10 6136 6070 1300 White 8
2 PM Tue 39 42 N 10 6136 6070 1300 White 8
3 PM Tue 40 41 N 10 5919 5749 979 White 7
4 PM Tue 40 40 N 8 5701 5425 655 White 6
5 PM Tue 38 38 N 8 5264 4770 0 White 4
6 PM Tue 36 36 N 8 4824 4770 0 White 2
7 PM Tue 34 34 N 8 4050 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 33 33 N 8 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 32 32 N 8 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 31 31 NW 6 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 31 31 NW 6 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 30 30 NW 6 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 30 30 NW 6 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 30 30 NW 6 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 29 29 NW 6 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 29 29 NW 6 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 29 29 NW 6 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 28 28 NW 6 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 29 29 NW 6 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 31 31 NW 6 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 34 35 NW 6 4602 4770 0 White 1
10 AM Wed 36 36 SW 9 4824 4770 0 White 2
11 AM Wed 38 38 SW 9 5264 4770 0 White 4
12 Noon Wed 39 39 SW 9 5483 5098 328 White 5
1 PM Wed 40 40 SW 9 5701 5425 655 White 6
2 PM Wed 41 41 SW 9 5919 5749 979 White 7
3 PM Wed 41 41 SW 9 5919 5749 979 White 7
4 PM Wed 41 41 SW 13 5919 5749 979 White 7
5 PM Wed 40 40 SW 13 5701 5425 655 White 6
6 PM Wed 38 38 SW 13 5264 4770 0 White 4
7 PM Wed 36 36 SW 13 4824 4770 0 White 2
8 PM Wed 35 35 SW 13 4602 4770 0 White 1
9 PM Wed 35 35 SW 13 4602 4770 0 White 1
10 PM Wed 35 35 W 14 4602 4770 0 White 1
11 PM Wed 35 35 W 14 4602 4770 0 White 1
12 Midnight Thu 35 35 W 14 4602 4770 0 White 1
1 AM Thu 35 35 W 14 4602 4770 0 White 1
2 AM Thu 34 34 W 14 4050 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 34 34 W 14 4050 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 33 33 W 16 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 33 33 W 16 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 33 33 W 16 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 33 33 W 16 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 34 34 W 16 4050 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 35 35 W 16 4602 4770 0 White 1
10 AM Thu 36 37 W 17 5045 4770 0 White 3
11 AM Thu 37 39 W 17 5483 5098 328 White 5
12 Noon Thu 38 40 W 17 5701 5425 655 White 6
1 PM Thu 38 40 W 17 5701 5425 655 White 6
2 PM Thu 38 39 W 17 5483 5098 328 White 5
3 PM Thu 38 39 W 17 5483 5098 328 White 5
4 PM Thu 37 37 W 16 5045 4770 0 White 3
5 PM Thu 36 36 W 16 4824 4770 0 White 2
6 PM Thu 34 34 W 16 4050 4770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 33 33 W 16 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 32 32 W 16 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 31 31 W 16 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 31 31 W 13 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 31 31 W 13 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 31 31 W 13 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 31 31 W 13 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 31 31 W 13 3294 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 30 30 W 13 3294 4770 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com