Detailed Predictions for: Garlock
Launch Altitude (f): 4770
LZ Altitude (f): 1970
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

16 OCT 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 51 51 N 10 2661 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 50 50 N 10 2661 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 50 50 N 10 2661 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 51 51 NE 12 2661 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 54 55 NE 12 2661 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 58 60 NE 12 3173 4770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 62 65 NE 15 6249 4770 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Tue 65 69 NE 15 7553 6434 1664 Blue 7
1 PM Tue 66 70 NE 15 7925 6757 1987 Blue 8
2 PM Tue 67 71 NE 21 8292 7135 2365 Blue 9
3 PM Tue 68 71 NE 21 8292 7135 2365 Blue 9
4 PM Tue 69 70 NE 21 7925 6757 1987 Blue 8
5 PM Tue 68 68 N 17 7176 6233 1463 Blue 6
6 PM Tue 66 66 N 17 6451 5565 795 Blue 4
7 PM Tue 63 63 N 17 5625 4770 0 Blue 1
8 PM Tue 60 60 NE 8 3173 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 58 58 NE 8 2661 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 57 57 NE 8 2661 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 57 57 S 9 2661 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 56 56 S 9 2661 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 56 56 S 9 2661 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 56 56 S 10 2661 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 55 55 S 10 2661 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 54 54 S 10 2661 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 53 53 N 10 2661 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 53 53 N 10 2661 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 53 53 N 10 2661 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 55 55 N 9 2661 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 58 59 N 9 2661 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 62 64 N 9 6047 4770 0 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 65 68 NE 9 7176 6233 1463 Blue 6
12 Noon Wed 67 71 NE 9 8292 7135 2365 Blue 9
1 PM Wed 69 73 NE 9 9789 7876 3106 Blue 11
2 PM Wed 70 74 NE 10 10514 8239 3469 Blue 12
3 PM Wed 70 73 NE 10 9789 7876 3106 Blue 11
4 PM Wed 70 71 NE 10 8292 7135 2365 Blue 9
5 PM Wed 69 69 NE 6 7553 6434 1664 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 66 66 NE 6 6451 5565 795 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 63 63 NE 6 5625 4770 0 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 61 61 NE 6 4004 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 59 59 NE 6 2661 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 57 57 NE 6 2661 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 57 57 E 5 2661 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 56 56 E 5 2661 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 56 56 E 5 2661 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 55 E 5 2661 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 54 54 E 5 2661 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 54 54 E 5 2661 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 53 53 N 6 2661 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 52 52 N 6 2661 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 52 52 N 6 2661 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 54 54 N 6 2661 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 57 58 N 6 2661 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 61 63 N 6 5625 4770 0 Blue 1
11 AM Thu 65 68 E 7 7176 6233 1463 Blue 6
12 Noon Thu 68 72 E 7 8655 7508 2738 Blue 10
1 PM Thu 70 75 E 7 10953 8598 3828 Blue 13
2 PM Thu 71 75 E 7 10953 8598 3828 Blue 13
3 PM Thu 72 75 E 7 10953 8598 3828 Blue 13
4 PM Thu 72 73 E 7 9789 7876 3106 Blue 11
5 PM Thu 71 71 NE 6 8292 7135 2365 Blue 9
6 PM Thu 69 69 NE 6 7553 6434 1664 Blue 7
7 PM Thu 66 66 NE 6 6451 5565 795 Blue 4
8 PM Thu 63 63 NE 6 5625 4770 0 Blue 1
9 PM Thu 61 61 NE 6 4004 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 60 60 NE 6 3173 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 59 59 N 6 2661 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 58 58 N 6 2661 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 57 57 N 6 2661 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 57 57 N 6 2661 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 56 56 N 6 2661 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 56 56 N 6 2661 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 55 55 N 8 2661 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 55 55 N 8 2661 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 55 55 N 8 2661 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 57 57 N 8 2661 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 60 61 N 8 4004 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 65 67 N 8 6794 6032 1262 Blue 5
11 AM Fri 69 72 NE 10 8655 7508 2738 Blue 10
12 Noon Fri 72 76 NE 10 11383 9582 4812 Blue 14
1 PM Fri 73 78 NE 10 12214 10851 6081 Blue 16
2 PM Fri 74 78 NE 10 12214 10851 6081 Blue 16
3 PM Fri 75 78 NE 10 12214 10851 6081 Blue 16
4 PM Fri 75 76 NE 10 11383 9582 4812 Blue 14
5 PM Fri 74 74 NE 14 10514 8239 3469 Blue 12
6 PM Fri 71 71 NE 14 8292 7135 2365 Blue 9
7 PM Fri 68 68 NE 14 7176 6233 1463 Blue 6
8 PM Fri 66 66 NE 14 6451 5565 795 Blue 4
9 PM Fri 64 64 NE 14 6047 4770 0 Blue 2
10 PM Fri 63 63 NE 14 5625 4770 0 Blue 1
11 PM Fri 62 62 NE 8 4779 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 62 62 NE 8 4779 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 61 61 NE 8 4004 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 60 60 NE 8 3173 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 59 59 NE 8 2661 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 59 59 NE 8 2661 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 58 58 E 10 2661 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 57 57 E 10 2661 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 57 57 E 10 2661 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 58 58 E 10 2661 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 61 62 E 10 4779 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 65 67 E 10 6794 6032 1262 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 69 72 NE 13 8655 7508 2738 Blue 10
12 Noon Sat 71 75 NE 13 10953 8598 3828 Blue 13
1 PM Sat 72 77 NE 13 11805 10416 5646 Blue 15
2 PM Sat 73 77 NE 13 11805 10416 5646 Blue 15
3 PM Sat 74 77 NE 13 11805 10416 5646 Blue 15
4 PM Sat 74 75 NE 13 10953 8598 3828 Blue 13
5 PM Sat 73 73 NE 12 9789 7876 3106 Blue 11
6 PM Sat 71 71 NE 12 8292 7135 2365 Blue 9
7 PM Sat 69 69 NE 12 7553 6434 1664 Blue 7
8 PM Sat 66 66 NE 12 6451 5565 795 Blue 4
9 PM Sat 65 65 NE 12 6249 4770 0 Blue 3
10 PM Sat 65 65 NE 12 6249 4770 0 Blue 3
11 PM Sat 65 65 SE 8 6249 4770 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sun 64 64 SE 8 6047 4770 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sun 64 64 SE 8 6047 4770 0 Blue 2
2 AM Sun 63 63 SE 8 5625 4770 0 Blue 1
3 AM Sun 62 62 SE 8 4779 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 62 62 SE 8 4779 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 61 61 NE 8 4004 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 60 60 NE 8 3173 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 59 59 NE 8 2661 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 60 60 NE 8 3173 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 62 62 NE 8 4779 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 65 66 NE 8 6451 5565 795 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 68 70 NE 10 7925 6757 1987 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 69 71 NE 10 8292 7135 2365 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 71 74 NE 10 10514 8239 3469 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 71 73 NE 10 9789 7876 3106 Blue 11
3 PM Sun 72 73 NE 10 9789 7876 3106 Blue 11
4 PM Sun 72 73 NE 10 9789 7876 3106 Blue 11
5 PM Sun 71 71 E 10 8292 7135 2365 Blue 9
6 PM Sun 69 69 E 10 7553 6434 1664 Blue 7
7 PM Sun 67 67 E 10 6794 6032 1262 Blue 5
8 PM Sun 64 64 E 10 6047 4770 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sun 63 63 E 10 5625 4770 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 62 62 E 10 4779 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 61 61 NW 7 4004 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 60 60 NW 7 3173 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 59 59 NW 7 2661 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 59 59 NW 7 2661 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 58 58 NW 7 2661 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 58 58 NW 7 2661 4770 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com