Detailed Predictions for: Garlock
Launch Altitude (f): 4770
LZ Altitude (f): 1970
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

19 JUN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 62 62 NW 3 2887 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 64 64 NW 3 4078 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 67 67 NW 3 6048 4770 0 Blue 2
8 AM Tue 70 72 N 16 7001 6368 1598 Blue 7
9 AM Tue 73 76 N 16 7508 7293 2523 Blue 11
10 AM Tue 76 81 N 16 7855 7638 2868 Blue 15
11 AM Tue 79 86 E 5 8527 8012 3242 Blue 20
12 Noon Tue 81 89 E 5 9093 8498 3728 Blue 23
1 PM Tue 84 92 E 5 9980 9061 4291 Blue 26
2 PM Tue 86 94 SE 3 10869 9579 4809 Blue 28
3 PM Tue 88 94 SE 3 10869 9579 4809 Blue 28
4 PM Tue 89 93 SE 3 10330 9247 4477 Blue 27
5 PM Tue 89 92 SW 13 9980 9061 4291 Blue 26
6 PM Tue 88 89 SW 13 9093 8498 3728 Blue 23
7 PM Tue 86 86 SW 13 8527 8012 3242 Blue 20
8 PM Tue 84 84 W 17 8179 7846 3076 Blue 18
9 PM Tue 80 80 W 17 7785 7569 2799 Blue 14
10 PM Tue 77 77 W 17 7577 7362 2592 Blue 12
11 PM Tue 75 75 NW 10 7439 6961 2191 Blue 10
12 Midnight Wed 73 73 NW 10 7300 6534 1764 Blue 8
1 AM Wed 72 72 NW 10 7001 6368 1598 Blue 7
2 AM Wed 70 70 NW 2 6548 6036 1266 Blue 5
3 AM Wed 68 68 NW 2 6215 4770 0 Blue 3
4 AM Wed 67 67 NW 2 6048 4770 0 Blue 2
5 AM Wed 67 67 N 3 6048 4770 0 Blue 2
6 AM Wed 69 69 N 3 6382 5361 591 Blue 4
7 AM Wed 73 73 N 3 7300 6534 1764 Blue 8
8 AM Wed 77 79 N 3 7716 7500 2730 Blue 13
9 AM Wed 81 84 N 3 8179 7846 3076 Blue 18
10 AM Wed 84 90 N 3 9302 8686 3916 Blue 24
11 AM Wed 87 94 SE 5 10869 9579 4809 Blue 28
12 Noon Wed 90 99 SE 5 12581 11679 6909 Blue 33
1 PM Wed 93 102 SE 5 13287 12513 7743 Blue 36
2 PM Wed 96 104 SE 5 13996 12982 8212 Blue 38
3 PM Wed 98 105 SE 5 14934 13215 8445 Blue 39
4 PM Wed 99 104 SE 5 13996 12982 8212 Blue 38
5 PM Wed 99 102 SW 10 13287 12513 7743 Blue 36
6 PM Wed 97 98 SW 10 12343 11267 6497 Blue 32
7 PM Wed 94 94 SW 10 10869 9579 4809 Blue 28
8 PM Wed 89 89 SW 10 9093 8498 3728 Blue 23
9 PM Wed 84 84 SW 10 8179 7846 3076 Blue 18
10 PM Wed 80 80 SW 10 7785 7569 2799 Blue 14
11 PM Wed 76 76 W 14 7508 7293 2523 Blue 11
12 Midnight Thu 74 74 W 14 7370 6699 1929 Blue 9
1 AM Thu 72 72 W 14 7001 6368 1598 Blue 7
2 AM Thu 70 70 W 14 6548 6036 1266 Blue 5
3 AM Thu 67 67 W 14 6048 4770 0 Blue 2
4 AM Thu 65 65 W 14 4673 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 64 64 W 9 4078 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 66 66 W 9 5411 4770 0 Blue 1
7 AM Thu 71 71 W 9 6715 6202 1432 Blue 6
8 AM Thu 76 77 W 9 7577 7362 2592 Blue 12
9 AM Thu 81 84 W 9 8179 7846 3076 Blue 18
10 AM Thu 86 91 W 9 9642 8874 4104 Blue 25
11 AM Thu 91 98 SW 6 12343 11267 6497 Blue 32
12 Noon Thu 95 103 SW 6 13521 12748 7978 Blue 37
1 PM Thu 98 107 SW 6 16408 13677 8907 Blue 41
2 PM Thu 100 108 SW 6 17196 14610 9840 White 42
3 PM Thu 101 108 SW 6 17196 14610 9840 White 42
4 PM Thu 101 106 SW 6 15774 13446 8676 Blue 40
5 PM Thu 99 102 SW 24 13287 12513 7743 Blue 36
6 PM Thu 97 98 SW 24 12343 11267 6497 Blue 32
7 PM Thu 94 94 SW 24 10869 9579 4809 Blue 28
8 PM Thu 91 91 SW 24 9642 8874 4104 Blue 25
9 PM Thu 87 87 SW 24 8716 8159 3389 Blue 21
10 PM Thu 84 84 SW 24 8179 7846 3076 Blue 18
11 PM Thu 81 81 W 13 7855 7638 2868 Blue 15
12 Midnight Fri 79 79 W 13 7716 7500 2730 Blue 13
1 AM Fri 77 77 W 13 7577 7362 2592 Blue 12
2 AM Fri 75 75 W 13 7439 6961 2191 Blue 10
3 AM Fri 73 73 W 13 7300 6534 1764 Blue 8
4 AM Fri 72 72 W 13 7001 6368 1598 Blue 7
5 AM Fri 72 72 W 9 7001 6368 1598 Blue 7
6 AM Fri 74 74 W 9 7370 6699 1929 Blue 9
7 AM Fri 76 76 W 9 7508 7293 2523 Blue 11
8 AM Fri 80 81 W 9 7855 7638 2868 Blue 15
9 AM Fri 85 88 W 9 8905 8310 3540 Blue 22
10 AM Fri 89 94 W 9 10869 9579 4809 Blue 28
11 AM Fri 94 101 S 6 13053 12277 7507 Blue 35
12 Noon Fri 97 105 S 6 14934 13215 8445 Blue 39
1 PM Fri 100 108 S 6 17196 14610 9840 White 42
2 PM Fri 102 110 S 6 17598 16149 11379 White 44
3 PM Fri 103 109 S 6 17397 15459 10689 White 43
4 PM Fri 103 108 S 6 17196 14610 9840 White 42
5 PM Fri 102 105 W 15 14934 13215 8445 Blue 39
6 PM Fri 101 102 W 15 13287 12513 7743 Blue 36
7 PM Fri 98 98 W 15 12343 11267 6497 Blue 32
8 PM Fri 95 95 W 15 11372 9913 5143 Blue 29
9 PM Fri 92 92 W 15 9980 9061 4291 Blue 26
10 PM Fri 88 88 W 15 8905 8310 3540 Blue 22
11 PM Fri 85 85 W 13 8338 7915 3145 Blue 19
12 Midnight Sat 81 81 W 13 7855 7638 2868 Blue 15
1 AM Sat 79 79 W 13 7716 7500 2730 Blue 13
2 AM Sat 76 76 W 13 7508 7293 2523 Blue 11
3 AM Sat 75 75 W 13 7439 6961 2191 Blue 10
4 AM Sat 74 74 W 13 7370 6699 1929 Blue 9
5 AM Sat 75 75 W 10 7439 6961 2191 Blue 10
6 AM Sat 76 76 W 10 7508 7293 2523 Blue 11
7 AM Sat 79 79 W 10 7716 7500 2730 Blue 13
8 AM Sat 83 84 W 10 8179 7846 3076 Blue 18
9 AM Sat 87 90 W 10 9302 8686 3916 Blue 24
10 AM Sat 91 96 W 10 11784 10244 5474 Blue 30
11 AM Sat 95 102 SE 3 13287 12513 7743 Blue 36
12 Noon Sat 98 106 SE 3 15774 13446 8676 Blue 40
1 PM Sat 101 110 SE 3 17598 16149 11379 White 44
2 PM Sat 103 111 SE 3 17798 16751 11981 White 45
3 PM Sat 104 111 SE 3 17798 16751 11981 White 45
4 PM Sat 104 109 SE 3 17397 15459 10689 White 43
5 PM Sat 103 106 SW 13 15774 13446 8676 Blue 40
6 PM Sat 101 102 SW 13 13287 12513 7743 Blue 36
7 PM Sat 99 99 SW 13 12581 11679 6909 Blue 33
8 PM Sat 96 96 SW 13 11784 10244 5474 Blue 30
9 PM Sat 92 92 SW 13 9980 9061 4291 Blue 26
10 PM Sat 88 88 SW 13 8905 8310 3540 Blue 22
11 PM Sat 85 85 W 9 8338 7915 3145 Blue 19
12 Midnight Sun 82 82 W 9 7924 7707 2937 Blue 16
1 AM Sun 80 80 W 9 7785 7569 2799 Blue 14
2 AM Sun 78 78 W 9 7647 7431 2661 Blue 13
3 AM Sun 76 76 W 9 7508 7293 2523 Blue 11
4 AM Sun 76 76 W 9 7508 7293 2523 Blue 11
5 AM Sun 77 77 N 7 7577 7362 2592 Blue 12
6 AM Sun 78 78 N 7 7647 7431 2661 Blue 13
7 AM Sun 80 80 N 7 7785 7569 2799 Blue 14
8 AM Sun 83 84 N 7 8179 7846 3076 Blue 18
9 AM Sun 87 90 N 7 9302 8686 3916 Blue 24
10 AM Sun 90 95 N 7 11372 9913 5143 Blue 29
11 AM Sun 94 101 E 9 13053 12277 7507 Blue 35
12 Noon Sun 97 105 E 9 14934 13215 8445 Blue 39
1 PM Sun 100 108 E 9 17196 14610 9840 White 42
2 PM Sun 103 110 E 9 17598 16149 11379 White 44
3 PM Sun 104 110 E 9 17598 16149 11379 White 44
4 PM Sun 105 109 E 9 17397 15459 10689 White 43
5 PM Sun 105 107 S 8 16408 13677 8907 Blue 41
6 PM Sun 103 104 S 8 13996 12982 8212 Blue 38
7 PM Sun 100 100 S 8 12817 12041 7271 Blue 34
8 PM Sun 96 96 S 8 11784 10244 5474 Blue 30
9 PM Sun 92 92 S 8 9980 9061 4291 Blue 26
10 PM Sun 88 88 S 8 8905 8310 3540 Blue 22
11 PM Sun 83 83 SW 12 8032 7776 3006 Blue 17
12 Midnight Mon 79 79 SW 12 7716 7500 2730 Blue 13
1 AM Mon 75 75 SW 12 7439 6961 2191 Blue 10
2 AM Mon 72 72 SW 12 7001 6368 1598 Blue 7
3 AM Mon 70 70 SW 12 6548 6036 1266 Blue 5
4 AM Mon 69 69 SW 12 6382 5361 591 Blue 4

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com