Detailed Predictions for: Garlock
Launch Altitude (f): 4770
LZ Altitude (f): 1970
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 62 62 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 62 62 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 62 62 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 65 66 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 70 73 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 75 80 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 79 86 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 82 90 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 84 92 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 85 92 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 86 92 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 86 89 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 85 86 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 83 83 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 80 80 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 76 76 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 73 73 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 71 71 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 71 71 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 70 70 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 66 66 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 65 65 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 63 63 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 62 62 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 62 62 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 62 62 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 62 62 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 65 66 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 70 73 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 74 79 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 78 84 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 81 88 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 83 91 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 84 91 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 85 90 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 85 88 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 84 85 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 82 82 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 79 79 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 75 75 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 72 72 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 70 70 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 70 70 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 69 69 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 65 65 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 64 64 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 62 62 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 61 61 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 61 61 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 61 61 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 61 61 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 64 65 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 69 71 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 73 76 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 77 80 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 80 83 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 82 84 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 83 84 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 84 85 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 84 85 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 83 84 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 81 81 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 78 78 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 74 74 SW 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 71 71 SW 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 69 69 SW 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 69 69 SW 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 68 68 SW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 64 64 SW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 63 63 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 61 61 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 60 60 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 60 60 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 60 60 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 60 60 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 63 64 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 67 70 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 71 76 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 74 80 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 77 83 SW 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 78 85 SW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 79 85 SW 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 80 85 SW 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 80 83 SW 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 79 80 SW 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 77 77 SW 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 75 75 SW 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 71 71 SW 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 68 68 SW 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 66 66 SW 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 65 65 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 64 64 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 61 61 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 60 60 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 58 58 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 57 57 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 57 57 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 57 57 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 57 57 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 59 60 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 62 64 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 64 67 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 66 67 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 68 70 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 69 71 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 70 71 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 70 71 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 70 71 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 69 70 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 68 68 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 66 66 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 63 63 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 60 60 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 59 59 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 58 58 SW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 58 58 SW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 55 55 SW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 54 54 SW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 53 53 SW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 52 52 SW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 52 52 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 52 52 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 52 52 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 55 56 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 59 61 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 62 66 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 65 71 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 68 75 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 69 76 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 70 76 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 71 76 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 71 74 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 70 72 W 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 68 68 W 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 66 66 W 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 62 62 W 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 60 60 W 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 58 58 W 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 57 57 SW 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 57 57 SW 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 53 53 SW 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 53 53 SW 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 51 51 SW 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 50 50 SW 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com