Detailed Predictions for: Garlock
Launch Altitude (f): 4770
LZ Altitude (f): 1970
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

18 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Thu 51 51 W 5 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 51 51 W 5 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 51 51 W 5 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 52 52 W 3 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 53 53 W 3 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 56 56 W 3 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 58 59 S 6 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 60 61 S 6 3327 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 62 63 S 6 3879 4770 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 62 63 SW 10 3879 4770 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 63 64 SW 10 4226 4770 0 Blue 1
3 PM Thu 63 63 SW 10 3879 4770 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 62 62 SW 14 3604 4770 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 61 61 SW 14 3327 4770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 59 59 SW 14 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 57 57 SW 13 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 56 56 SW 13 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 55 55 SW 13 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 54 54 SW 15 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 54 54 SW 15 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 53 53 SW 15 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 53 53 SW 13 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 52 52 SW 13 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 52 52 SW 13 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 51 51 SW 17 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 50 50 SW 17 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 49 49 SW 17 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 48 48 SW 17 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 48 48 SW 17 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 49 49 SW 17 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 51 51 W 24 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 52 53 W 24 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 53 54 W 24 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 53 54 W 24 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 52 52 W 24 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 50 50 W 24 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 49 49 W 24 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 48 48 W 24 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 46 46 W 24 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 45 45 W 24 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 44 44 W 24 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 42 42 W 24 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 41 41 W 26 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 41 41 W 26 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 40 40 W 26 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 40 40 W 26 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 40 40 W 26 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 39 39 W 26 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 38 38 W 20 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 37 37 W 20 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 37 37 W 20 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 37 37 W 20 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 39 39 W 20 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 41 41 W 20 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 43 44 NW 22 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 44 46 NW 22 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 45 47 NW 22 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 46 48 NW 22 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 46 47 NW 22 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 45 45 NW 22 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 44 44 NW 20 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 43 43 NW 20 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 42 42 NW 20 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 40 40 NW 20 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 40 40 NW 20 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 40 40 NW 20 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 40 40 W 7 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 39 39 W 7 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 39 39 W 7 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 38 38 W 7 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 37 37 W 7 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 37 37 W 7 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 36 36 W 6 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 36 36 W 6 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 35 35 W 6 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 36 36 W 6 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 38 38 W 6 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 41 41 W 6 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 43 44 S 5 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 46 48 S 5 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 47 49 S 5 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 48 50 S 5 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 49 50 S 5 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 49 49 S 5 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 48 48 W 8 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 47 47 W 8 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 45 45 W 8 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 43 43 W 8 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 42 42 W 8 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 42 42 W 8 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 42 42 W 6 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 42 42 W 6 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 41 41 W 6 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 41 41 W 6 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 40 40 W 6 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 40 40 W 6 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 39 39 NW 7 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 38 38 NW 7 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 38 38 NW 7 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 38 38 NW 7 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 40 40 NW 7 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 43 43 NW 7 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 46 47 W 6 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 48 49 W 6 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 50 51 W 6 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 51 52 W 6 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 52 53 W 6 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 52 52 W 6 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 51 51 W 10 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 50 50 W 10 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 48 48 W 10 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 46 46 W 10 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 46 46 W 10 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 45 45 W 10 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 45 45 NW 8 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 45 45 NW 8 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 44 44 NW 8 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 44 44 NW 8 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 44 44 NW 8 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 44 44 NW 8 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 43 43 N 7 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 43 43 N 7 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 42 42 N 7 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 42 42 N 7 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 44 44 N 7 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 47 47 N 7 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 50 51 NE 2 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 53 55 NE 2 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 54 56 NE 2 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 55 57 NE 2 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 56 57 NE 2 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 56 56 NE 2 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 55 55 W 6 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 54 54 W 6 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 51 51 W 6 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 50 50 W 6 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 48 48 W 6 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 48 48 W 6 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 47 47 W 7 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 47 47 W 7 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 47 47 W 7 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 46 46 W 7 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 45 45 W 7 2982 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 45 45 W 7 2982 4770 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com