Detailed Predictions for: Garlock
Launch Altitude (f): 4770
LZ Altitude (f): 1970
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

24 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 71 71 SW 5 3579 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 70 70 SW 5 3579 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 70 70 SW 6 3579 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 73 73 S 6 3579 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 74 76 S 7 4553 4770 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 77 81 S 9 7193 5045 275 Blue 7
11 AM Sat 80 86 S 10 8189 7846 3076 Blue 12
12 Noon Sat 84 91 S 13 9394 8570 3800 Blue 17
1 PM Sat 87 95 S 14 10718 9633 4863 Blue 21
2 PM Sat 89 96 S 14 11193 9923 5153 Blue 22
3 PM Sat 90 96 S 14 11193 9923 5153 Blue 22
4 PM Sat 91 95 S 16 10718 9633 4863 Blue 21
5 PM Sat 91 93 SW 17 9980 9047 4277 Blue 19
6 PM Sat 90 90 SW 18 9097 8365 3595 Blue 16
7 PM Sat 88 88 SW 17 8601 8058 3288 Blue 14
8 PM Sat 84 84 SW 14 7966 6884 2114 Blue 10
9 PM Sat 83 83 SW 14 7859 5997 1227 Blue 9
10 PM Sat 81 81 SW 10 7193 5045 275 Blue 7
11 PM Sat 80 80 SW 10 6029 4770 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Sun 79 79 SW 10 5552 4770 0 Blue 5
1 AM Sun 78 78 SW 9 5065 4770 0 Blue 4
2 AM Sun 76 76 W 9 4553 4770 0 Blue 2
3 AM Sun 75 75 W 8 4346 4770 0 Blue 1
4 AM Sun 74 74 W 7 4063 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 73 73 W 7 3579 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 72 72 W 7 3579 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 72 72 W 6 3579 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 75 75 W 6 4346 4770 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sun 78 80 SW 7 6029 4770 0 Blue 6
10 AM Sun 80 84 S 8 7966 6884 2114 Blue 10
11 AM Sun 85 91 S 10 9394 8570 3800 Blue 17
12 Noon Sun 89 96 S 10 11193 9923 5153 Blue 22
1 PM Sun 91 99 S 10 11897 11083 6313 Blue 25
2 PM Sun 93 100 SW 15 12069 11510 6740 Blue 26
3 PM Sun 94 100 SW 15 12069 11510 6740 Blue 26
4 PM Sun 94 98 SW 15 11725 10612 5842 Blue 24
5 PM Sun 93 95 W 18 10718 9633 4863 Blue 21
6 PM Sun 91 91 W 18 9394 8570 3800 Blue 17
7 PM Sun 88 88 W 18 8601 8058 3288 Blue 14
8 PM Sun 85 85 W 17 8073 7720 2950 Blue 11
9 PM Sun 83 83 W 17 7859 5997 1227 Blue 9
10 PM Sun 82 82 W 17 7742 5526 756 Blue 8
11 PM Sun 81 81 W 12 7193 5045 275 Blue 7
12 Midnight Mon 80 80 W 12 6029 4770 0 Blue 6
1 AM Mon 79 79 W 12 5552 4770 0 Blue 5
2 AM Mon 78 78 W 8 5065 4770 0 Blue 4
3 AM Mon 76 76 W 8 4553 4770 0 Blue 2
4 AM Mon 75 75 W 8 4346 4770 0 Blue 1
5 AM Mon 74 74 W 7 4063 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 74 74 W 7 4063 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 75 75 W 7 4346 4770 0 Blue 1
8 AM Mon 77 77 N 6 4759 4770 0 Blue 3
9 AM Mon 79 80 N 6 6029 4770 0 Blue 6
10 AM Mon 82 84 N 6 7966 6884 2114 Blue 10
11 AM Mon 85 88 E 9 8601 8058 3288 Blue 14
12 Noon Mon 88 92 E 9 9688 8756 3986 Blue 18
1 PM Mon 91 95 E 9 10718 9633 4863 Blue 21
2 PM Mon 93 98 S 10 11725 10612 5842 Blue 24
3 PM Mon 94 98 S 10 11725 10612 5842 Blue 24
4 PM Mon 94 97 S 10 11552 10211 5441 Blue 23
5 PM Mon 94 95 SW 10 10718 9633 4863 Blue 21
6 PM Mon 92 92 SW 10 9688 8756 3986 Blue 18
7 PM Mon 90 90 SW 10 9097 8365 3595 Blue 16
8 PM Mon 87 87 W 14 8395 7952 3182 Blue 13
9 PM Mon 85 85 W 14 8073 7720 2950 Blue 11
10 PM Mon 83 83 W 14 7859 5997 1227 Blue 9
11 PM Mon 82 82 W 10 7742 5526 756 Blue 8
12 Midnight Tue 81 81 W 10 7193 5045 275 Blue 7
1 AM Tue 80 80 W 10 6029 4770 0 Blue 6
2 AM Tue 79 79 W 7 5552 4770 0 Blue 5
3 AM Tue 78 78 W 7 5065 4770 0 Blue 4
4 AM Tue 77 77 W 7 4759 4770 0 Blue 3
5 AM Tue 76 76 W 6 4553 4770 0 Blue 2
6 AM Tue 76 76 W 6 4553 4770 0 Blue 2
7 AM Tue 77 77 W 6 4759 4770 0 Blue 3
8 AM Tue 78 78 W 6 5065 4770 0 Blue 4
9 AM Tue 80 82 W 6 7742 5526 756 Blue 8
10 AM Tue 83 87 W 6 8395 7952 3182 Blue 13
11 AM Tue 86 92 SW 7 9688 8756 3986 Blue 18
12 Noon Tue 89 96 SW 7 11193 9923 5153 Blue 22
1 PM Tue 92 99 SW 7 11897 11083 6313 Blue 25
2 PM Tue 94 101 S 10 12240 11681 6911 Blue 27
3 PM Tue 96 102 S 10 12402 11852 7082 Blue 28
4 PM Tue 96 100 S 10 12069 11510 6740 Blue 26
5 PM Tue 96 98 S 12 11725 10612 5842 Blue 24
6 PM Tue 94 94 S 12 10271 9341 4571 Blue 20
7 PM Tue 91 91 S 12 9394 8570 3800 Blue 17
8 PM Tue 88 88 SW 13 8601 8058 3288 Blue 14
9 PM Tue 86 86 SW 13 8189 7846 3076 Blue 12
10 PM Tue 85 85 SW 13 8073 7720 2950 Blue 11
11 PM Tue 84 84 SW 10 7966 6884 2114 Blue 10
12 Midnight Wed 83 83 SW 10 7859 5997 1227 Blue 9
1 AM Wed 82 82 SW 10 7742 5526 756 Blue 8
2 AM Wed 81 81 SW 7 7193 5045 275 Blue 7
3 AM Wed 79 79 SW 7 5552 4770 0 Blue 5
4 AM Wed 78 78 SW 7 5065 4770 0 Blue 4
5 AM Wed 77 77 W 6 4759 4770 0 Blue 3
6 AM Wed 77 77 W 6 4759 4770 0 Blue 3
7 AM Wed 78 78 W 6 5065 4770 0 Blue 4
8 AM Wed 79 79 SW 6 5552 4770 0 Blue 5
9 AM Wed 81 83 SW 6 7859 5997 1227 Blue 9
10 AM Wed 83 87 SW 6 8395 7952 3182 Blue 13
11 AM Wed 86 92 S 10 9688 8756 3986 Blue 18
12 Noon Wed 89 96 S 10 11193 9923 5153 Blue 22
1 PM Wed 91 98 S 10 11725 10612 5842 Blue 24
2 PM Wed 93 100 S 15 12069 11510 6740 Blue 26
3 PM Wed 94 100 S 15 12069 11510 6740 Blue 26
4 PM Wed 94 98 S 15 11725 10612 5842 Blue 24
5 PM Wed 93 95 SW 18 10718 9633 4863 Blue 21
6 PM Wed 91 91 SW 18 9394 8570 3800 Blue 17
7 PM Wed 89 89 SW 18 8799 8164 3394 Blue 15
8 PM Wed 87 87 SW 18 8395 7952 3182 Blue 13
9 PM Wed 85 85 SW 18 8073 7720 2950 Blue 11
10 PM Wed 83 83 SW 18 7859 5997 1227 Blue 9
11 PM Wed 82 82 SW 10 7742 5526 756 Blue 8
12 Midnight Thu 81 81 SW 10 7193 5045 275 Blue 7
1 AM Thu 80 80 SW 10 6029 4770 0 Blue 6
2 AM Thu 79 79 W 8 5552 4770 0 Blue 5
3 AM Thu 77 77 W 8 4759 4770 0 Blue 3
4 AM Thu 76 76 W 8 4553 4770 0 Blue 2
5 AM Thu 75 75 W 6 4346 4770 0 Blue 1
6 AM Thu 75 75 W 6 4346 4770 0 Blue 1
7 AM Thu 75 75 W 6 4346 4770 0 Blue 1
8 AM Thu 76 76 SW 6 4553 4770 0 Blue 2
9 AM Thu 78 80 SW 6 6029 4770 0 Blue 6
10 AM Thu 81 85 SW 6 8073 7720 2950 Blue 11
11 AM Thu 84 89 S 10 8799 8164 3394 Blue 15
12 Noon Thu 87 93 S 10 9980 9047 4277 Blue 19
1 PM Thu 90 96 S 10 11193 9923 5153 Blue 22
2 PM Thu 92 98 SW 18 11725 10612 5842 Blue 24
3 PM Thu 93 98 SW 18 11725 10612 5842 Blue 24
4 PM Thu 93 96 SW 18 11193 9923 5153 Blue 22
5 PM Thu 92 94 SW 20 10271 9341 4571 Blue 20
6 PM Thu 90 90 SW 20 9097 8365 3595 Blue 16
7 PM Thu 87 87 SW 20 8395 7952 3182 Blue 13
8 PM Thu 85 85 SW 16 8073 7720 2950 Blue 11
9 PM Thu 83 83 SW 16 7859 5997 1227 Blue 9
10 PM Thu 82 82 SW 16 7742 5526 756 Blue 8
11 PM Thu 81 81 SW 10 7193 5045 275 Blue 7
12 Midnight Fri 80 80 SW 10 6029 4770 0 Blue 6
1 AM Fri 79 79 SW 10 5552 4770 0 Blue 5
2 AM Fri 78 78 W 9 5065 4770 0 Blue 4
3 AM Fri 77 77 W 9 4759 4770 0 Blue 3
4 AM Fri 76 76 W 9 4553 4770 0 Blue 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com