Detailed Predictions for: Garlock
Launch Altitude (f): 4770
LZ Altitude (f): 1970
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

17 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 56 56 W 12 5474 4770 0 White 2
5 AM Fri 55 55 W 12 5254 4770 0 White 1
6 AM Fri 55 55 W 12 5254 4770 0 White 1
7 AM Fri 56 56 W 9 5474 4770 0 White 2
8 AM Fri 57 57 W 9 5695 5037 267 White 3
9 AM Fri 59 59 W 9 6135 5734 964 White 5
10 AM Fri 60 62 W 21 6792 6752 1982 White 8
11 AM Fri 61 63 W 21 7011 7011 2241 White 9
12 Noon Fri 62 64 W 21 7229 7229 2459 White 10
1 PM Fri 63 65 W 21 7447 7447 2677 White 11
2 PM Fri 63 64 W 21 7229 7229 2459 White 10
3 PM Fri 62 62 W 21 6792 6752 1982 White 8
4 PM Fri 58 58 NW 13 5915 5388 618 White 4
5 PM Fri 55 55 NW 13 5254 4770 0 White 1
6 PM Fri 53 53 NW 13 4673 4770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 52 52 N 9 4275 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 50 50 N 9 3460 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 49 49 N 9 3043 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 49 49 NE 8 3043 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 48 48 NE 8 2619 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 48 48 NE 8 2619 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 46 46 N 8 2589 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 45 45 N 8 2589 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 45 45 N 8 2589 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 45 45 N 2 2589 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 44 44 N 2 2589 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 44 44 N 2 2589 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 46 46 E 1 2589 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 49 49 E 1 3043 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 52 53 E 1 4673 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 55 57 E 5 5695 5037 267 White 3
11 AM Sat 58 60 E 5 6354 6077 1307 White 6
12 Noon Sat 60 63 E 5 7011 7011 2241 White 9
1 PM Sat 61 63 E 6 7011 7011 2241 White 9
2 PM Sat 61 62 E 6 6792 6752 1982 White 8
3 PM Sat 60 60 E 6 6354 6077 1307 White 6
4 PM Sat 57 57 NE 6 5695 5037 267 White 3
5 PM Sat 54 54 NE 6 5032 4770 0 White 0
6 PM Sat 53 53 NE 6 4673 4770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 51 51 NE 6 3870 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 50 50 NE 6 3460 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 50 50 NE 6 3460 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 49 49 NE 5 3043 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 49 49 NE 5 3043 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 48 48 NE 5 2619 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 47 47 N 5 2589 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 46 46 N 5 2589 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 46 46 N 5 2589 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 46 46 N 5 2589 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 45 45 N 5 2589 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 45 45 N 5 2589 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 48 48 N 5 2619 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 51 51 N 5 3870 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 54 55 N 5 5254 4770 0 White 1
10 AM Sun 58 59 SE 2 6135 5734 964 White 5
11 AM Sun 61 63 SE 2 7011 7011 2241 White 9
12 Noon Sun 63 65 SE 2 7447 7447 2677 White 11
1 PM Sun 65 67 SE 2 7879 7879 3109 White 13
2 PM Sun 65 66 SE 2 7662 7662 2892 White 12
3 PM Sun 64 64 SE 2 7229 7229 2459 White 10
4 PM Sun 61 61 W 5 6573 6416 1646 White 7
5 PM Sun 58 58 W 5 5915 5388 618 White 4
6 PM Sun 57 57 W 5 5695 5037 267 White 3
7 PM Sun 56 56 W 5 5474 4770 0 White 2
8 PM Sun 55 55 W 5 5254 4770 0 White 1
9 PM Sun 54 54 W 5 5032 4770 0 White 0
10 PM Sun 54 54 W 7 5032 4770 0 White 0
11 PM Sun 53 53 W 7 4673 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 53 53 W 7 4673 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 52 52 W 7 4275 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 51 51 W 7 3870 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 51 51 W 7 3870 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 51 51 W 8 3870 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 50 50 W 8 3460 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 50 50 W 8 3460 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 52 52 W 8 4275 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 55 55 W 8 5254 4770 0 White 1
9 AM Mon 58 58 W 8 5915 5388 618 White 4
10 AM Mon 61 62 W 10 6792 6752 1982 White 8
11 AM Mon 64 65 W 10 7447 7447 2677 White 11
12 Noon Mon 66 67 W 10 7879 7879 3109 White 13
1 PM Mon 67 68 W 10 8095 8095 3325 White 14
2 PM Mon 67 67 W 10 7879 7879 3109 White 13
3 PM Mon 66 66 W 10 7662 7662 2892 White 12
4 PM Mon 63 63 W 12 7011 7011 2241 White 9
5 PM Mon 61 61 W 12 6573 6416 1646 White 7
6 PM Mon 60 60 W 12 6354 6077 1307 White 6
7 PM Mon 59 59 W 12 6135 5734 964 White 5
8 PM Mon 58 58 W 12 5915 5388 618 White 4
9 PM Mon 57 57 W 12 5695 5037 267 White 3
10 PM Mon 57 57 W 7 5695 5037 267 White 3
11 PM Mon 56 56 W 7 5474 4770 0 White 2
12 Midnight Tue 56 56 W 7 5474 4770 0 White 2
1 AM Tue 55 55 W 7 5254 4770 0 White 1
2 AM Tue 54 54 W 7 5032 4770 0 White 0
3 AM Tue 53 53 W 7 4673 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 54 54 NW 6 5032 4770 0 White 0
5 AM Tue 53 53 NW 6 4673 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 53 53 NW 6 4673 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 56 56 NW 6 5474 4770 0 White 2
8 AM Tue 59 59 NW 6 6135 5734 964 White 5
9 AM Tue 62 63 NW 6 7011 7011 2241 White 9
10 AM Tue 66 67 W 3 7879 7879 3109 White 13
11 AM Tue 68 70 W 3 8526 8526 3756 White 16
12 Noon Tue 70 72 W 3 8955 8955 4185 White 18
1 PM Tue 72 74 W 3 9383 9383 4613 White 20
2 PM Tue 72 73 W 3 9169 9169 4399 White 19
3 PM Tue 71 71 W 3 8740 8740 3970 White 17
4 PM Tue 68 68 SW 6 8095 8095 3325 White 14
5 PM Tue 65 65 SW 6 7447 7447 2677 White 11
6 PM Tue 64 64 SW 6 7229 7229 2459 White 10
7 PM Tue 62 62 SW 6 6792 6752 1982 White 8
8 PM Tue 61 61 SW 6 6573 6416 1646 White 7
9 PM Tue 61 61 SW 6 6573 6416 1646 White 7
10 PM Tue 60 60 W 6 6354 6077 1307 White 6
11 PM Tue 60 60 W 6 6354 6077 1307 White 6
12 Midnight Wed 59 59 W 6 6135 5734 964 White 5
1 AM Wed 58 58 W 6 5915 5388 618 White 4
2 AM Wed 57 57 W 6 5695 5037 267 White 3
3 AM Wed 57 57 W 6 5695 5037 267 White 3
4 AM Wed 57 57 W 6 5695 5037 267 White 3
5 AM Wed 56 56 W 6 5474 4770 0 White 2
6 AM Wed 56 56 W 6 5474 4770 0 White 2
7 AM Wed 58 58 W 6 5915 5388 618 White 4
8 AM Wed 61 61 W 6 6573 6416 1646 White 7
9 AM Wed 64 65 W 6 7447 7447 2677 White 11
10 AM Wed 68 70 W 7 8526 8526 3756 White 16
11 AM Wed 71 73 W 7 9169 9169 4399 White 19
12 Noon Wed 72 74 W 7 9383 9383 4613 White 20
1 PM Wed 74 76 W 7 9810 9810 5040 White 22
2 PM Wed 74 75 W 7 9597 9597 4827 White 21
3 PM Wed 73 73 W 7 9169 9169 4399 White 19
4 PM Wed 69 69 W 9 8311 8311 3541 White 15
5 PM Wed 67 67 W 9 7879 7879 3109 White 13
6 PM Wed 65 65 W 9 7447 7447 2677 White 11
7 PM Wed 64 64 W 9 7229 7229 2459 White 10
8 PM Wed 63 63 W 9 7011 7011 2241 White 9
9 PM Wed 62 62 W 9 6792 6752 1982 White 8
10 PM Wed 61 61 W 8 6573 6416 1646 White 7
11 PM Wed 61 61 W 8 6573 6416 1646 White 7
12 Midnight Thu 61 61 W 8 6573 6416 1646 White 7
1 AM Thu 59 59 W 8 6135 5734 964 White 5
2 AM Thu 58 58 W 8 5915 5388 618 White 4
3 AM Thu 58 58 W 8 5915 5388 618 White 4

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com