Detailed Predictions for: Garlock
Launch Altitude (f): 4770
LZ Altitude (f): 1970
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

15 JUN 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 69 69 NW 6 3915 4770 0 Blue 4
6 AM Sat 69 69 NW 3 3915 4770 0 Blue 4
7 AM Sat 72 72 W 2 4664 4770 0 Blue 7
8 AM Sat 75 77 S 3 6041 5628 858 Blue 12
9 AM Sat 78 81 S 5 6637 6165 1395 Blue 16
10 AM Sat 81 87 S 6 9436 8254 3484 Blue 22
11 AM Sat 84 91 S 7 12089 9733 4963 Blue 26
12 Noon Sat 88 97 S 8 14737 13669 8899 White 32
1 PM Sat 90 99 S 8 15150 14730 9960 White 34
2 PM Sat 91 99 SW 8 15150 14730 9960 White 34
3 PM Sat 92 99 SW 12 15150 14730 9960 White 34
4 PM Sat 92 97 SW 17 14737 13669 8899 White 32
5 PM Sat 90 93 W 20 13287 11287 6517 Blue 28
6 PM Sat 89 90 W 20 11448 9370 4600 Blue 25
7 PM Sat 85 85 W 17 8689 6834 2064 Blue 20
8 PM Sat 83 83 W 14 7922 6434 1664 Blue 18
9 PM Sat 79 79 NW 13 6310 5897 1127 Blue 14
10 PM Sat 78 78 W 10 6175 5762 992 Blue 13
11 PM Sat 77 77 W 8 6041 5628 858 Blue 12
12 Midnight Sun 75 75 SW 6 5771 4770 0 Blue 10
1 AM Sun 74 74 SW 6 5636 4770 0 Blue 9
2 AM Sun 73 73 SW 6 5501 4770 0 Blue 8
3 AM Sun 71 71 SW 6 4192 4770 0 Blue 6
4 AM Sun 70 70 SW 5 3951 4770 0 Blue 5
5 AM Sun 69 69 SW 9 3915 4770 0 Blue 4
6 AM Sun 69 69 SW 8 3915 4770 0 Blue 4
7 AM Sun 71 71 SW 7 4192 4770 0 Blue 6
8 AM Sun 74 76 W 6 5906 5479 709 Blue 11
9 AM Sun 76 79 SW 6 6310 5897 1127 Blue 14
10 AM Sun 79 85 S 8 8689 6834 2064 Blue 20
11 AM Sun 82 89 S 9 10772 9003 4233 Blue 24
12 Noon Sun 85 93 S 12 13287 11287 6517 Blue 28
1 PM Sun 87 95 SW 13 14322 12528 7758 White 30
2 PM Sun 88 96 SW 15 14530 13110 8340 White 31
3 PM Sun 89 95 SW 16 14322 12528 7758 White 30
4 PM Sun 88 93 SW 17 13287 11287 6517 Blue 28
5 PM Sun 87 90 SW 18 11448 9370 4600 Blue 25
6 PM Sun 85 86 SW 20 9065 7871 3101 Blue 21
7 PM Sun 83 83 SW 21 7922 6434 1664 Blue 18
8 PM Sun 80 80 SW 21 6445 6031 1261 Blue 15
9 PM Sun 78 78 W 18 6175 5762 992 Blue 13
10 PM Sun 76 76 W 16 5906 5479 709 Blue 11
11 PM Sun 74 74 W 14 5636 4770 0 Blue 9
12 Midnight Mon 73 73 W 13 5501 4770 0 Blue 8
1 AM Mon 72 72 SW 12 4664 4770 0 Blue 7
2 AM Mon 71 71 SW 10 4192 4770 0 Blue 6
3 AM Mon 70 70 SW 9 3951 4770 0 Blue 5
4 AM Mon 68 68 SW 8 3880 4770 0 Blue 3
5 AM Mon 68 68 SW 8 3880 4770 0 Blue 3
6 AM Mon 69 69 SW 8 3915 4770 0 Blue 4
7 AM Mon 71 71 W 8 4192 4770 0 Blue 6
8 AM Mon 73 75 W 8 5771 4770 0 Blue 10
9 AM Mon 76 79 NW 9 6310 5897 1127 Blue 14
10 AM Mon 79 85 NE 9 8689 6834 2064 Blue 20
11 AM Mon 82 88 E 10 9869 8631 3861 Blue 23
12 Noon Mon 84 91 E 10 12089 9733 4963 Blue 26
1 PM Mon 86 94 SE 12 14114 11922 7152 White 29
2 PM Mon 87 94 SE 12 14114 11922 7152 White 29
3 PM Mon 88 94 S 12 14114 11922 7152 White 29
4 PM Mon 88 92 S 12 12701 10618 5848 Blue 27
5 PM Mon 87 89 SW 12 10772 9003 4233 Blue 24
6 PM Mon 86 87 SW 13 9436 8254 3484 Blue 22
7 PM Mon 84 84 SW 14 8308 6618 1848 Blue 19
8 PM Mon 82 82 SW 14 6855 6299 1529 Blue 17
9 PM Mon 80 80 SW 13 6445 6031 1261 Blue 15
10 PM Mon 78 78 SW 12 6175 5762 992 Blue 13
11 PM Mon 76 76 SW 10 5906 5479 709 Blue 11
12 Midnight Tue 75 75 W 10 5771 4770 0 Blue 10
1 AM Tue 74 74 W 9 5636 4770 0 Blue 9
2 AM Tue 73 73 W 9 5501 4770 0 Blue 8
3 AM Tue 72 72 W 9 4664 4770 0 Blue 7
4 AM Tue 71 71 NW 8 4192 4770 0 Blue 6
5 AM Tue 71 71 NW 8 4192 4770 0 Blue 6
6 AM Tue 72 72 NW 7 4664 4770 0 Blue 7
7 AM Tue 74 74 NW 7 5636 4770 0 Blue 9
8 AM Tue 76 78 NW 7 6175 5762 992 Blue 13
9 AM Tue 79 82 N 8 6855 6299 1529 Blue 17
10 AM Tue 81 87 E 9 9436 8254 3484 Blue 22
11 AM Tue 84 91 E 10 12089 9733 4963 Blue 26
12 Noon Tue 86 94 E 10 14114 11922 7152 White 29
1 PM Tue 88 96 E 10 14530 13110 8340 White 31
2 PM Tue 89 97 E 10 14737 13669 8899 White 32
3 PM Tue 90 96 SE 10 14530 13110 8340 White 31
4 PM Tue 90 94 S 12 14114 11922 7152 White 29
5 PM Tue 89 92 SW 13 12701 10618 5848 Blue 27
6 PM Tue 88 89 SW 13 10772 9003 4233 Blue 24
7 PM Tue 87 87 SW 13 9436 8254 3484 Blue 22
8 PM Tue 85 85 SW 13 8689 6834 2064 Blue 20
9 PM Tue 83 83 SW 13 7922 6434 1664 Blue 18
10 PM Tue 81 81 SW 13 6637 6165 1395 Blue 16
11 PM Tue 79 79 W 12 6310 5897 1127 Blue 14
12 Midnight Wed 77 77 W 12 6041 5628 858 Blue 12
1 AM Wed 76 76 W 12 5906 5479 709 Blue 11
2 AM Wed 75 75 W 12 5771 4770 0 Blue 10
3 AM Wed 73 73 W 12 5501 4770 0 Blue 8
4 AM Wed 72 72 W 12 4664 4770 0 Blue 7
5 AM Wed 72 72 SW 9 4664 4770 0 Blue 7
6 AM Wed 73 73 SW 9 5501 4770 0 Blue 8
7 AM Wed 75 75 SW 9 5771 4770 0 Blue 10
8 AM Wed 77 79 SW 9 6310 5897 1127 Blue 14
9 AM Wed 80 83 SW 9 7922 6434 1664 Blue 18
10 AM Wed 83 89 SW 9 10772 9003 4233 Blue 24
11 AM Wed 86 93 SW 10 13287 11287 6517 Blue 28
12 Noon Wed 89 98 SW 10 14943 14208 9438 White 33
1 PM Wed 91 100 SW 10 15355 15355 10585 White 35
2 PM Wed 92 100 SW 10 15355 15355 10585 White 35
3 PM Wed 92 99 SW 10 15150 14730 9960 White 34
4 PM Wed 92 97 SW 10 14737 13669 8899 White 32
5 PM Wed 91 94 W 20 14114 11922 7152 White 29
6 PM Wed 89 90 W 20 11448 9370 4600 Blue 25
7 PM Wed 87 87 W 20 9436 8254 3484 Blue 22
8 PM Wed 85 85 W 20 8689 6834 2064 Blue 20
9 PM Wed 83 83 W 20 7922 6434 1664 Blue 18
10 PM Wed 82 82 W 20 6855 6299 1529 Blue 17
11 PM Wed 80 80 W 16 6445 6031 1261 Blue 15
12 Midnight Thu 79 79 W 16 6310 5897 1127 Blue 14
1 AM Thu 77 77 W 16 6041 5628 858 Blue 12
2 AM Thu 76 76 W 16 5906 5479 709 Blue 11
3 AM Thu 75 75 W 16 5771 4770 0 Blue 10
4 AM Thu 73 73 W 16 5501 4770 0 Blue 8
5 AM Thu 73 73 W 13 5501 4770 0 Blue 8
6 AM Thu 73 73 W 13 5501 4770 0 Blue 8
7 AM Thu 74 74 W 13 5636 4770 0 Blue 9
8 AM Thu 76 78 W 13 6175 5762 992 Blue 13
9 AM Thu 79 82 W 13 6855 6299 1529 Blue 17
10 AM Thu 83 89 W 13 10772 9003 4233 Blue 24
11 AM Thu 86 93 W 18 13287 11287 6517 Blue 28
12 Noon Thu 88 97 W 18 14737 13669 8899 White 32
1 PM Thu 89 98 W 18 14943 14208 9438 White 33
2 PM Thu 90 98 W 18 14943 14208 9438 White 33
3 PM Thu 90 97 W 18 14737 13669 8899 White 32
4 PM Thu 89 94 W 18 14114 11922 7152 White 29
5 PM Thu 88 91 W 26 12089 9733 4963 Blue 26
6 PM Thu 86 87 W 26 9436 8254 3484 Blue 22
7 PM Thu 84 84 W 26 8308 6618 1848 Blue 19
8 PM Thu 82 82 W 26 6855 6299 1529 Blue 17
9 PM Thu 80 80 W 26 6445 6031 1261 Blue 15
10 PM Thu 78 78 W 26 6175 5762 992 Blue 13
11 PM Thu 76 76 SW 22 5906 5479 709 Blue 11
12 Midnight Fri 75 75 SW 22 5771 4770 0 Blue 10
1 AM Fri 74 74 SW 22 5636 4770 0 Blue 9
2 AM Fri 73 73 SW 22 5501 4770 0 Blue 8
3 AM Fri 72 72 SW 22 4664 4770 0 Blue 7
4 AM Fri 71 71 SW 22 4192 4770 0 Blue 6

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com