Detailed Predictions for: Garlock
Launch Altitude (f): 4770
LZ Altitude (f): 1970
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

18 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 52 52 E 2 3602 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 50 50 NW 10 3602 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 48 48 NW 10 3602 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 50 50 NE 3 3602 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 56 57 N 9 5352 4770 0 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 58 60 N 7 5808 5347 577 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 61 64 S 3 6326 5975 1205 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 63 67 S 8 7001 6320 1550 Blue 11
1 PM Fri 66 70 S 10 7779 6974 2204 Blue 14
2 PM Fri 67 71 SW 7 8036 7232 2462 Blue 15
3 PM Fri 67 70 SW 13 7779 6974 2204 Blue 14
4 PM Fri 67 68 SW 14 7262 6453 1683 Blue 12
5 PM Fri 66 66 SW 9 6739 6242 1472 Blue 10
6 PM Fri 64 64 W 14 6326 5975 1205 Blue 8
7 PM Fri 59 59 W 13 5627 4804 34 Blue 3
8 PM Fri 56 56 NW 7 4813 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 56 56 W 13 4813 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 55 55 W 12 4294 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 54 54 NW 7 3736 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 54 54 W 12 3736 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 52 52 W 10 3602 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 52 52 NW 5 3602 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 52 52 NW 10 3602 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 50 50 NW 10 3602 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 51 51 N 2 3602 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 50 50 W 9 3602 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 49 49 NW 9 3602 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 51 51 NE 2 3602 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 57 58 NW 8 5459 4770 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 59 61 NW 8 5988 5454 684 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 62 65 E 6 6476 6154 1384 Blue 9
12 Noon Sat 65 69 E 6 7521 6714 1944 Blue 13
1 PM Sat 68 72 E 6 8271 7490 2720 Blue 16
2 PM Sat 69 73 SW 9 8695 7746 2976 Blue 17
3 PM Sat 69 72 SW 9 8271 7490 2720 Blue 16
4 PM Sat 69 70 SW 9 7779 6974 2204 Blue 14
5 PM Sat 68 68 W 7 7262 6453 1683 Blue 12
6 PM Sat 65 65 W 7 6476 6154 1384 Blue 9
7 PM Sat 60 60 W 7 5808 5347 577 Blue 4
8 PM Sat 57 57 W 20 5352 4770 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sat 57 57 W 20 5352 4770 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sat 56 56 W 20 4813 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 55 55 W 17 4294 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 55 55 W 17 4294 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 54 54 W 17 3736 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 53 53 NW 15 3602 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 53 53 NW 15 3602 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 52 52 NW 15 3602 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 52 52 NW 10 3602 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 51 51 NW 10 3602 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 50 50 NW 10 3602 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 52 52 NW 10 3602 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 57 58 NW 10 5459 4770 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sun 59 61 NW 10 5988 5454 684 Blue 5
11 AM Sun 62 65 NE 10 6476 6154 1384 Blue 9
12 Noon Sun 65 69 NE 10 7521 6714 1944 Blue 13
1 PM Sun 67 71 NE 10 8036 7232 2462 Blue 15
2 PM Sun 68 72 NE 10 8271 7490 2720 Blue 16
3 PM Sun 68 71 NE 10 8036 7232 2462 Blue 15
4 PM Sun 68 69 NE 10 7521 6714 1944 Blue 13
5 PM Sun 67 67 NE 7 7001 6320 1550 Blue 11
6 PM Sun 65 65 NE 7 6476 6154 1384 Blue 9
7 PM Sun 61 61 NE 7 5988 5454 684 Blue 5
8 PM Sun 59 59 N 6 5627 4804 34 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 58 58 N 6 5459 4770 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 58 58 N 6 5459 4770 0 Blue 2
11 PM Sun 57 57 NW 7 5352 4770 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Mon 57 57 NW 7 5352 4770 0 Blue 1
1 AM Mon 56 56 NW 7 4813 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 56 56 N 9 4813 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 55 55 N 9 4294 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 54 54 N 9 3736 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 54 54 N 9 3736 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 54 54 N 9 3736 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 53 53 N 9 3602 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 55 55 N 8 4294 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 61 62 N 8 6168 5616 846 Blue 6
10 AM Mon 63 65 N 8 6476 6154 1384 Blue 9
11 AM Mon 66 69 NE 9 7521 6714 1944 Blue 13
12 Noon Mon 68 72 NE 9 8271 7490 2720 Blue 16
1 PM Mon 71 75 NE 9 9764 8238 3468 Blue 19
2 PM Mon 72 76 E 9 10209 8607 3837 Blue 20
3 PM Mon 72 75 E 9 9764 8238 3468 Blue 19
4 PM Mon 72 73 E 9 8695 7746 2976 Blue 17
5 PM Mon 71 71 E 6 8036 7232 2462 Blue 15
6 PM Mon 69 69 E 6 7521 6714 1944 Blue 13
7 PM Mon 64 64 E 6 6326 5975 1205 Blue 8
8 PM Mon 61 61 E 5 5988 5454 684 Blue 5
9 PM Mon 61 61 E 5 5988 5454 684 Blue 5
10 PM Mon 60 60 E 5 5808 5347 577 Blue 4
11 PM Mon 60 60 N 6 5808 5347 577 Blue 4
12 Midnight Tue 59 59 N 6 5627 4804 34 Blue 3
1 AM Tue 58 58 N 6 5459 4770 0 Blue 2
2 AM Tue 58 58 N 8 5459 4770 0 Blue 2
3 AM Tue 57 57 N 8 5352 4770 0 Blue 1
4 AM Tue 56 56 N 8 4813 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 56 56 N 9 4813 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 56 56 N 9 4813 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 55 55 N 9 4294 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 57 57 N 8 5352 4770 0 Blue 1
9 AM Tue 63 64 N 8 6326 5975 1205 Blue 8
10 AM Tue 66 68 N 8 7262 6453 1683 Blue 12
11 AM Tue 69 72 NE 7 8271 7490 2720 Blue 16
12 Noon Tue 72 76 NE 7 10209 8607 3837 Blue 20
1 PM Tue 75 79 NE 7 11030 10141 5371 Blue 23
2 PM Tue 76 80 E 8 11116 10458 5688 Blue 24
3 PM Tue 76 79 E 8 11030 10141 5371 Blue 23
4 PM Tue 76 77 E 8 10529 9143 4373 Blue 21
5 PM Tue 75 75 E 7 9764 8238 3468 Blue 19
6 PM Tue 72 72 E 7 8271 7490 2720 Blue 16
7 PM Tue 67 67 E 7 7001 6320 1550 Blue 11
8 PM Tue 64 64 E 6 6326 5975 1205 Blue 8
9 PM Tue 63 63 E 6 6248 5796 1026 Blue 7
10 PM Tue 62 62 E 6 6168 5616 846 Blue 6
11 PM Tue 61 61 N 6 5988 5454 684 Blue 5
12 Midnight Wed 61 61 N 6 5988 5454 684 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 60 60 N 6 5808 5347 577 Blue 4
2 AM Wed 59 59 N 9 5627 4804 34 Blue 3
3 AM Wed 59 59 N 9 5627 4804 34 Blue 3
4 AM Wed 58 58 N 9 5459 4770 0 Blue 2
5 AM Wed 58 58 N 9 5459 4770 0 Blue 2
6 AM Wed 57 57 N 9 5352 4770 0 Blue 1
7 AM Wed 56 56 N 9 4813 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 58 58 N 8 5459 4770 0 Blue 2
9 AM Wed 64 65 N 8 6476 6154 1384 Blue 9
10 AM Wed 67 69 N 8 7521 6714 1944 Blue 13
11 AM Wed 70 73 N 8 8695 7746 2976 Blue 17
12 Noon Wed 73 77 N 8 10529 9143 4373 Blue 21
1 PM Wed 76 80 N 8 11116 10458 5688 Blue 24
2 PM Wed 77 81 E 8 11203 10773 6003 Blue 25
3 PM Wed 77 80 E 8 11116 10458 5688 Blue 24
4 PM Wed 77 78 E 8 10846 9664 4894 Blue 22
5 PM Wed 76 76 E 7 10209 8607 3837 Blue 20
6 PM Wed 73 73 E 7 8695 7746 2976 Blue 17
7 PM Wed 68 68 E 7 7262 6453 1683 Blue 12
8 PM Wed 65 65 N 6 6476 6154 1384 Blue 9
9 PM Wed 64 64 N 6 6326 5975 1205 Blue 8
10 PM Wed 63 63 N 6 6248 5796 1026 Blue 7
11 PM Wed 62 62 N 7 6168 5616 846 Blue 6
12 Midnight Thu 62 62 N 7 6168 5616 846 Blue 6
1 AM Thu 61 61 N 7 5988 5454 684 Blue 5
2 AM Thu 60 60 N 10 5808 5347 577 Blue 4
3 AM Thu 60 60 N 10 5808 5347 577 Blue 4
4 AM Thu 59 59 N 10 5627 4804 34 Blue 3

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com