Detailed Predictions for: Garlock
Launch Altitude (f): 4770
LZ Altitude (f): 1970
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 60 60 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 60 60 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 61 61 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 67 68 SW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 71 74 SW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 74 79 SW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 77 82 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 80 86 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 81 87 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 83 89 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 84 88 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 84 87 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 84 85 SW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 83 83 SW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 80 80 SW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 75 75 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 72 72 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 70 70 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 69 69 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 67 67 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 64 64 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 63 63 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 62 62 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 61 61 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 60 60 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 58 58 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 59 59 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 63 64 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 66 68 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 68 72 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 70 76 SW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 72 79 SW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 73 80 SW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 74 80 SW 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 75 80 SW 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 75 78 SW 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 75 76 W 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 74 74 W 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 71 71 W 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 67 67 W 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 64 64 W 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 62 62 W 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 61 61 W 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 60 60 W 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 57 57 W 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 56 56 W 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 55 55 W 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 54 54 W 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 53 53 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 51 51 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 52 52 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 56 57 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 59 61 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 61 65 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 63 68 W 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 65 71 W 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 66 73 W 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 67 73 W 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 68 73 W 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 68 71 W 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 68 69 W 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 67 67 W 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 65 65 W 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 61 61 W 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 59 59 W 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 57 57 W 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 56 56 W 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 55 55 W 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 53 53 W 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 52 52 W 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 51 51 W 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 50 50 W 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 50 50 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 48 48 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 49 49 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 54 55 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 57 59 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 60 64 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 62 68 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 65 72 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 66 73 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 68 74 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 69 74 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 69 72 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 69 70 W 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 68 68 W 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 66 66 W 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 63 63 W 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 61 61 W 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 60 60 W 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 59 59 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 58 58 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 55 55 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 54 54 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 54 54 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 53 53 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 52 52 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 51 51 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 51 51 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 55 56 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 58 60 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 59 62 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 61 65 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 63 68 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 64 69 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 65 70 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 66 70 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 66 68 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 66 67 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 65 65 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 64 64 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 61 61 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 59 59 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 58 58 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 57 57 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 56 56 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 55 55 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 54 54 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 53 53 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 53 53 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 52 52 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 51 51 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 51 51 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 55 56 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 57 59 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 59 62 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 61 65 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 62 67 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 63 68 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 64 69 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 65 69 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 65 67 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 65 66 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 64 64 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 63 63 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 60 60 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 59 59 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 58 58 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 58 58 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 57 57 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 55 55 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 54 54 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 54 54 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 53 53 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com