Detailed Predictions for: Garlock
Launch Altitude (f): 4770
LZ Altitude (f): 1970
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

14 DEC 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 43 43 E 8 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 43 43 E 8 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 44 44 E 8 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 44 44 E 8 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 45 45 E 8 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 47 47 E 8 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 48 48 E 5 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 49 49 E 5 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 50 50 E 5 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 51 51 S 7 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 51 51 S 7 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 51 51 S 7 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 51 51 S 6 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 47 47 S 6 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 45 45 S 6 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 44 44 SW 3 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 43 43 SW 3 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 42 42 SW 3 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 42 42 SW 6 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 42 42 SW 6 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 41 41 SW 6 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 40 40 N 3 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 39 39 N 3 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 39 39 N 3 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 39 39 N 6 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 40 40 N 6 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 40 40 N 6 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 41 41 N 7 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 43 43 N 7 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 47 47 N 7 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 49 50 NE 6 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 52 54 NE 6 3498 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 54 56 NE 6 3940 4770 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 55 57 S 3 4259 4770 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sat 55 56 S 3 3940 4770 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 55 55 S 3 3719 4770 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 55 55 N 6 3719 4770 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 50 50 N 6 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 48 48 N 6 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 47 47 N 6 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 46 46 N 6 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 45 45 N 6 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 44 44 N 7 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 44 44 N 7 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 43 43 N 7 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 42 42 N 7 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 42 42 N 7 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 41 41 N 7 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 41 41 N 6 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 42 42 N 6 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 42 42 N 6 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 43 43 N 6 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 45 45 N 6 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 49 49 N 6 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 51 52 E 5 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 54 55 E 5 3719 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 56 57 E 5 4259 4770 0 Blue 1
1 PM Sun 57 58 E 5 4600 4770 0 Blue 2
2 PM Sun 57 58 E 5 4600 4770 0 Blue 2
3 PM Sun 57 57 E 5 4259 4770 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sun 57 57 S 6 4259 4770 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sun 52 52 S 6 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 51 51 S 6 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 49 49 S 6 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 49 49 S 6 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 47 47 S 6 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 47 47 S 8 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 47 47 S 8 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 46 46 S 8 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 45 45 S 8 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 45 45 S 8 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 44 44 S 8 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 44 44 S 10 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 44 44 S 10 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 45 45 S 10 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 45 45 S 10 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 46 46 S 10 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 48 48 S 10 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 50 50 SW 8 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 51 51 SW 8 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 52 52 SW 8 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 53 53 SW 8 3277 4770 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 53 53 SW 8 3277 4770 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 53 53 SW 8 3277 4770 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 53 53 W 13 3277 4770 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 48 48 W 13 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 47 47 W 13 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 45 45 W 13 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 45 45 W 13 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 43 43 W 13 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 43 43 NW 10 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 43 43 NW 10 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 42 42 NW 10 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 41 41 NW 10 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 41 41 NW 10 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 40 40 NW 10 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 40 40 NW 9 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 41 41 NW 9 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 41 41 NW 9 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 42 42 NW 9 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 44 44 NW 9 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 47 47 NW 9 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 50 51 NW 6 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 52 54 NW 6 3498 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 54 56 NW 6 3940 4770 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 55 57 NW 6 4259 4770 0 Blue 1
2 PM Tue 55 56 NW 6 3940 4770 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 55 55 NW 6 3719 4770 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 55 55 NE 6 3719 4770 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 50 50 NE 6 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 49 49 NE 6 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 47 47 NE 6 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 47 47 NE 6 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 45 45 NE 6 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 45 45 N 7 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 45 45 N 7 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 44 44 N 7 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 43 43 N 7 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 43 43 N 7 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 42 42 N 7 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 43 43 N 7 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 43 43 N 7 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 43 43 N 7 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 44 44 N 7 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 46 46 N 7 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 50 50 N 7 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 53 54 N 6 3498 4770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 55 57 N 6 4259 4770 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 58 60 N 6 5214 4770 0 Blue 4
1 PM Wed 58 60 N 6 5214 4770 0 Blue 4
2 PM Wed 59 60 N 6 5214 4770 0 Blue 4
3 PM Wed 59 59 N 6 4938 4770 0 Blue 3
4 PM Wed 59 59 NE 5 4938 4770 0 Blue 3
5 PM Wed 53 53 NE 5 3277 4770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 51 51 NE 5 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 49 49 NE 5 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 49 49 NE 5 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 47 47 NE 5 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 47 47 N 7 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 46 46 N 7 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 46 46 N 7 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 44 44 N 7 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 44 44 N 7 3186 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 43 43 N 7 3186 4770 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com