Detailed Predictions for: Garlock
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.418766, -117.850633, 4770
LZ Altitude (f): 1970
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

17 APR 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 59 59 WNW 7 14 8919 7897 3127 Blue 8
1 AM Sat 55 55 WNW 6 14 7596 5914 1144 Blue 4
2 AM Sat 52 52 WNW 6 13 5984 4770 0 Blue 1
3 AM Sat 51 51 WNW 6 13 4658 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 50 50 WNW 6 13 3956 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 49 49 WNW 6 13 3215 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 53 53 NW 5 10 6915 4770 0 Blue 2
7 AM Sat 57 57 NW 5 8 8264 7230 2460 Blue 6
8 AM Sat 60 61 NW 4 5 9562 8552 3782 Blue 10
9 AM Sat 64 66 SW 8 9 11133 10108 5338 Blue 15
10 AM Sat 67 71 SE 12 13 13933 12881 8111 White 20
11 AM Sat 71 77 NE 15 18 15159 15159 10389 White 26
12 Noon Sat 72 79 NE 16 18 15566 15566 10796 White 28
1 PM Sat 73 80 NE 16 19 15767 15767 10997 White 29
2 PM Sat 74 81 NE 17 20 15970 15970 11200 White 30
3 PM Sat 74 79 NE 16 19 15566 15566 10796 White 28
4 PM Sat 73 76 NNE 15 17 14955 14955 10185 White 25
5 PM Sat 73 74 NNE 14 16 14547 14547 9777 White 23
6 PM Sat 71 71 SE 12 16 13933 12881 8111 White 20
7 PM Sat 68 68 SW 10 16 13315 10711 5941 White 17
8 PM Sat 66 66 NW 7 16 11133 10108 5338 Blue 15
9 PM Sat 64 64 NW 7 15 10315 9512 4742 Blue 13
10 PM Sat 61 61 NW 6 13 9562 8552 3782 Blue 10
11 PM Sat 59 59 NW 6 12 8919 7897 3127 Blue 8
12 Midnight Sun 57 57 NW 6 12 8264 7230 2460 Blue 6
1 AM Sun 56 56 NNW 5 12 7932 6891 2121 Blue 5
2 AM Sun 54 54 NNW 5 12 7257 4770 0 Blue 3
3 AM Sun 53 53 NNW 6 12 6915 4770 0 Blue 2
4 AM Sun 52 52 NNW 6 13 5984 4770 0 Blue 1
5 AM Sun 52 52 NNW 6 13 5984 4770 0 Blue 1
6 AM Sun 55 55 WSW 8 14 7596 5914 1144 Blue 4
7 AM Sun 59 59 SE 11 14 8919 7897 3127 Blue 8
8 AM Sun 63 64 NNE 13 15 10315 9512 4742 Blue 13
9 AM Sun 66 68 NNE 16 19 13315 10711 5941 White 17
10 AM Sun 69 73 NNE 19 22 14343 14343 9573 White 22
11 AM Sun 72 78 NNE 22 25 15362 15362 10592 White 27
12 Noon Sun 73 80 NNE 21 24 15767 15767 10997 White 29
1 PM Sun 75 83 NNE 20 23 16373 16373 11603 White 32
2 PM Sun 77 84 NE 18 21 16575 16575 11805 White 33
3 PM Sun 78 83 NE 17 20 16373 16373 11603 White 32
4 PM Sun 78 81 NE 16 19 15970 15970 11200 White 30
5 PM Sun 79 81 NE 15 18 15970 15970 11200 White 30
6 PM Sun 76 76 SE 12 15 14955 14955 10185 White 25
7 PM Sun 74 74 SW 8 12 14547 14547 9777 White 23
8 PM Sun 71 71 NW 4 8 13933 12881 8111 White 20
9 PM Sun 70 70 NW 5 11 13728 11954 7184 White 19
10 PM Sun 69 69 WNW 6 13 13521 11057 6287 White 18
11 PM Sun 68 68 WNW 7 15 13315 10711 5941 White 17
12 Midnight Mon 64 64 WNW 6 14 10315 9512 4742 Blue 13
1 AM Mon 59 59 WNW 6 13 8919 7897 3127 Blue 8
2 AM Mon 55 55 WNW 5 12 7596 5914 1144 Blue 4
3 AM Mon 54 54 WNW 5 12 7257 4770 0 Blue 3
4 AM Mon 54 54 WNW 6 12 7257 4770 0 Blue 3
5 AM Mon 53 53 WNW 6 12 6915 4770 0 Blue 2
6 AM Mon 57 57 WNW 5 10 8264 7230 2460 Blue 6
7 AM Mon 61 61 WNW 4 7 9562 8552 3782 Blue 10
8 AM Mon 65 66 WNW 4 5 11133 10108 5338 Blue 15
9 AM Mon 69 71 W 3 4 13933 12881 8111 White 20
10 AM Mon 73 77 SW 3 3 15159 15159 10389 White 26
11 AM Mon 77 83 S 2 2 16373 16373 11603 White 32
12 Noon Mon 79 86 SSW 4 4 16977 16977 12207 White 35
1 PM Mon 81 88 SSW 5 6 17377 17377 12607 White 37
2 PM Mon 83 89 SW 7 8 17577 17577 12807 White 38
3 PM Mon 83 88 SW 10 12 17377 17377 12607 White 37
4 PM Mon 83 86 WSW 13 15 16977 16977 12207 White 35
5 PM Mon 83 84 W 17 19 16575 16575 11805 White 33
6 PM Mon 81 81 W 14 19 15970 15970 11200 White 30
7 PM Mon 79 79 W 12 19 15566 15566 10796 White 28
8 PM Mon 77 77 W 9 20 15159 15159 10389 White 26
9 PM Mon 75 75 W 8 18 14751 14751 9981 White 24
10 PM Mon 72 72 W 7 16 14138 13715 8945 White 21
11 PM Mon 70 70 WSW 6 14 13728 11954 7184 White 19

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com