Detailed Predictions for: Horseshoe
Launch Altitude (f): 9085
LZ Altitude (f): 3640
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

18 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 39 39 NW 15 6375 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 42 42 NW 14 6375 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 38 38 NW 12 6375 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 42 42 NW 10 6375 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 47 48 N 9 7179 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 48 49 NE 7 7453 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 49 51 NE 7 7995 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 52 55 E 8 9810 9085 0 Blue 4
1 PM Fri 53 57 E 9 10595 9215 130 Blue 6
2 PM Fri 55 58 SE 10 10929 9768 683 Blue 7
3 PM Fri 55 57 SE 10 10595 9215 130 Blue 6
4 PM Fri 55 56 SE 10 10257 9085 0 Blue 5
5 PM Fri 54 54 SE 10 9249 9085 0 Blue 3
6 PM Fri 50 50 S 9 7724 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 46 46 W 9 6628 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 44 44 NW 8 6375 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 43 43 NW 8 6375 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 43 43 NW 7 6375 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 42 42 NW 7 6375 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 42 42 NW 7 6375 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 42 42 W 7 6375 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 42 42 W 7 6375 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 41 41 W 8 6375 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 41 41 W 8 6375 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 41 41 W 9 6375 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 40 40 W 10 6375 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 40 40 NW 10 6375 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 45 45 NW 10 6375 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 50 51 N 9 7995 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 52 54 NE 8 9249 9085 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 54 57 NE 8 10595 9215 130 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 56 59 E 9 11057 10226 1141 Blue 8
1 PM Sat 57 60 S 12 11147 10560 1475 Blue 9
2 PM Sat 59 62 SW 14 11327 11046 1961 Blue 11
3 PM Sat 59 61 SW 15 11237 10891 1806 Blue 10
4 PM Sat 58 59 W 15 11057 10226 1141 Blue 8
5 PM Sat 56 56 W 15 10257 9085 0 Blue 5
6 PM Sat 53 53 W 15 8669 9085 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sat 49 49 W 15 7453 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 46 46 W 15 6628 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 44 44 W 14 6375 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 44 44 NW 14 6375 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 44 44 NW 13 6375 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 44 44 NW 13 6375 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 43 43 NW 12 6375 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 43 43 NW 12 6375 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 42 42 NW 12 6375 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 41 41 NW 12 6375 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 40 40 NW 12 6375 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 40 40 NW 12 6375 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 40 40 N 10 6375 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 42 42 N 10 6375 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 44 45 N 10 6375 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 47 49 NE 10 7453 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 50 53 NE 10 8669 9085 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sun 52 56 NE 10 10257 9085 0 Blue 5
1 PM Sun 53 57 E 10 10595 9215 130 Blue 6
2 PM Sun 54 58 E 10 10929 9768 683 Blue 7
3 PM Sun 55 58 E 10 10929 9768 683 Blue 7
4 PM Sun 55 56 E 10 10257 9085 0 Blue 5
5 PM Sun 53 53 E 10 8669 9085 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sun 51 51 E 10 7995 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 48 48 N 10 7179 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 45 45 N 10 6375 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 44 44 N 10 6375 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 43 43 NW 10 6375 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 43 43 NW 10 6375 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 44 44 NW 10 6375 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 44 44 NW 10 6375 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 44 44 NW 10 6375 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 44 44 NW 10 6375 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 43 43 NW 10 6375 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 43 43 NW 10 6375 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 44 44 NW 10 6375 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 45 45 N 9 6375 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 47 47 N 9 6905 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 49 50 N 9 7724 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 52 54 NE 9 9249 9085 0 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 55 58 NE 9 10929 9768 683 Blue 7
12 Noon Mon 57 61 NE 9 11237 10891 1806 Blue 10
1 PM Mon 59 63 NE 10 11417 11136 2051 Blue 12
2 PM Mon 60 64 E 10 11508 11226 2141 Blue 13
3 PM Mon 61 63 E 10 11417 11136 2051 Blue 12
4 PM Mon 61 62 E 9 11327 11046 1961 Blue 11
5 PM Mon 59 59 E 9 11057 10226 1141 Blue 8
6 PM Mon 56 56 E 9 10257 9085 0 Blue 5
7 PM Mon 52 52 E 10 8246 9085 0 Blue 1
8 PM Mon 49 49 E 10 7453 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 47 47 NE 10 6905 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 47 47 N 10 6905 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 47 47 N 10 6905 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 47 47 N 10 6905 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 47 47 NW 12 6905 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 46 46 NW 12 6628 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 45 45 NW 12 6375 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 45 45 NW 12 6375 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 45 45 NW 12 6375 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 46 46 NW 10 6628 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 47 47 N 10 6905 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 50 N 9 7724 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 53 54 N 8 9249 9085 0 Blue 3
10 AM Tue 57 59 NE 8 11057 10226 1141 Blue 8
11 AM Tue 60 63 NE 8 11417 11136 2051 Blue 12
12 Noon Tue 62 66 NE 9 11688 11406 2321 Blue 15
1 PM Tue 63 67 E 9 11776 11496 2411 Blue 16
2 PM Tue 64 67 E 10 11776 11496 2411 Blue 16
3 PM Tue 65 67 E 10 11776 11496 2411 Blue 16
4 PM Tue 65 66 SE 9 11688 11406 2321 Blue 15
5 PM Tue 63 63 SE 8 11417 11136 2051 Blue 12
6 PM Tue 59 59 S 8 11057 10226 1141 Blue 8
7 PM Tue 54 54 W 8 9249 9085 0 Blue 3
8 PM Tue 50 50 NW 8 7724 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 48 48 NW 8 7179 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 47 47 W 8 6905 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 47 47 W 8 6905 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 47 47 W 8 6905 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 47 47 W 8 6905 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 46 46 W 8 6628 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 46 46 W 8 6628 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 46 46 W 9 6628 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 46 46 W 9 6628 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 47 47 NW 9 6905 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 48 48 NW 8 7179 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 50 50 N 8 7724 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 53 54 N 8 9249 9085 0 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 56 58 N 8 10929 9768 683 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 58 61 N 8 11237 10891 1806 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 61 65 NE 9 11598 11316 2231 Blue 14
1 PM Wed 62 66 NE 10 11688 11406 2321 Blue 15
2 PM Wed 63 66 E 12 11688 11406 2321 Blue 15
3 PM Wed 64 66 E 12 11688 11406 2321 Blue 15
4 PM Wed 64 65 E 12 11598 11316 2231 Blue 14
5 PM Wed 62 62 E 10 11327 11046 1961 Blue 11
6 PM Wed 58 58 NE 9 10929 9768 683 Blue 7
7 PM Wed 53 53 NE 8 8669 9085 0 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 49 49 N 8 7453 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 47 47 N 8 6905 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 47 47 N 8 6905 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 47 47 N 9 6905 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 46 46 N 10 6628 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 45 45 N 12 6375 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 44 44 N 13 6375 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 44 44 N 14 6375 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 44 44 N 14 6375 9085 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com