Detailed Predictions for: Horseshoe
Launch Altitude (f): 9085
LZ Altitude (f): 3640
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

15 JUN 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 57 57 NW 13 6873 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 55 55 NW 13 6873 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 59 59 NW 9 6873 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 63 65 N 8 8600 9085 0 Blue 2
9 AM Sat 66 69 NE 8 10788 9085 0 Blue 6
10 AM Sat 69 75 NE 8 14632 12735 3650 Blue 12
11 AM Sat 71 78 E 7 16545 14501 5416 Blue 15
12 Noon Sat 73 81 SE 8 17237 16475 7390 Blue 18
1 PM Sat 75 83 SE 9 19787 16934 7849 Blue 20
2 PM Sat 75 82 SE 9 18569 16705 7620 Blue 19
3 PM Sat 75 80 S 9 17007 15576 6491 Blue 17
4 PM Sat 75 79 SW 12 16776 15047 5962 Blue 16
5 PM Sat 74 76 W 6 15184 13348 4263 Blue 13
6 PM Sat 73 74 W 9 14060 12095 3010 Blue 11
7 PM Sat 69 69 W 12 10788 9085 0 Blue 6
8 PM Sat 65 65 W 9 8600 9085 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sat 63 63 NW 9 7784 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 61 61 NW 12 6873 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 59 59 NW 10 6873 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 57 57 NW 14 6873 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 57 57 NW 14 6873 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 56 56 NW 13 6873 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 56 56 NW 13 6873 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 56 56 NW 13 6873 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 55 55 NW 12 6873 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 55 55 NW 10 6873 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 59 59 NW 9 6873 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 63 64 N 8 8195 9085 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sun 66 68 N 10 9779 9085 0 Blue 5
10 AM Sun 67 71 NE 10 12196 9750 665 Blue 8
11 AM Sun 69 73 NE 8 13465 11421 2336 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 71 76 E 7 15184 13348 4263 Blue 13
1 PM Sun 72 77 E 8 15718 13935 4850 Blue 14
2 PM Sun 73 78 E 8 16545 14501 5416 Blue 15
3 PM Sun 73 76 E 6 15184 13348 4263 Blue 13
4 PM Sun 72 74 N 5 14060 12095 3010 Blue 11
5 PM Sun 71 72 NW 5 12845 10708 1623 Blue 9
6 PM Sun 68 68 NW 9 9779 9085 0 Blue 5
7 PM Sun 65 65 NW 15 8600 9085 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sun 61 61 NW 20 6873 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 59 59 NW 21 6873 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 58 58 NW 21 6873 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 57 57 NW 20 6873 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 56 56 NW 18 6873 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 55 55 NW 17 6873 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 55 55 NW 16 6873 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 54 54 NW 15 6873 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 53 53 NW 13 6873 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 53 53 NW 12 6873 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 55 55 NW 10 6873 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 58 58 N 10 6873 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 62 63 N 10 7784 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 64 67 N 9 9391 9085 0 Blue 4
10 AM Mon 67 70 NE 9 11512 9367 282 Blue 7
11 AM Mon 68 72 E 9 12845 10708 1623 Blue 9
12 Noon Mon 70 75 E 10 14632 12735 3650 Blue 12
1 PM Mon 70 75 E 13 14632 12735 3650 Blue 12
2 PM Mon 71 76 E 14 15184 13348 4263 Blue 13
3 PM Mon 71 75 E 12 14632 12735 3650 Blue 12
4 PM Mon 71 74 E 8 14060 12095 3010 Blue 11
5 PM Mon 70 71 E 7 12196 9750 665 Blue 8
6 PM Mon 67 67 E 10 9391 9085 0 Blue 4
7 PM Mon 64 64 N 16 8195 9085 0 Blue 1
8 PM Mon 61 61 N 21 6873 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 60 60 N 21 6873 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 59 59 NW 20 6873 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 58 58 NW 17 6873 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 57 57 NW 16 6873 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 57 57 NW 15 6873 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 56 56 NW 14 6873 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 55 55 NW 13 6873 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 54 54 NW 13 6873 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 55 55 NW 13 6873 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 57 57 NW 13 6873 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 60 60 N 13 6873 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 63 64 N 13 8195 9085 0 Blue 1
9 AM Tue 66 69 N 12 10788 9085 0 Blue 6
10 AM Tue 69 74 N 10 14060 12095 3010 Blue 11
11 AM Tue 70 77 N 9 15718 13935 4850 Blue 14
12 Noon Tue 72 80 N 8 17007 15576 6491 Blue 17
1 PM Tue 73 81 NE 8 17237 16475 7390 Blue 18
2 PM Tue 74 82 NE 7 18569 16705 7620 Blue 19
3 PM Tue 74 80 NE 6 17007 15576 6491 Blue 17
4 PM Tue 74 79 N 6 16776 15047 5962 Blue 16
5 PM Tue 73 76 N 6 15184 13348 4263 Blue 13
6 PM Tue 71 72 N 6 12845 10708 1623 Blue 9
7 PM Tue 68 68 NW 6 9779 9085 0 Blue 5
8 PM Tue 65 65 NW 7 8600 9085 0 Blue 2
9 PM Tue 63 63 W 8 7784 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 62 62 W 9 6873 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 61 61 W 10 6873 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 61 61 W 12 6873 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 60 60 W 13 6873 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 59 59 W 14 6873 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 58 58 W 15 6873 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 57 57 W 15 6873 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 57 57 W 15 6873 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 59 59 NW 14 6873 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 62 62 NW 13 6873 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 66 68 N 12 9779 9085 0 Blue 5
9 AM Wed 69 72 N 9 12845 10708 1623 Blue 9
10 AM Wed 72 78 NE 8 16545 14501 5416 Blue 15
11 AM Wed 74 81 NE 6 17237 16475 7390 Blue 18
12 Noon Wed 76 85 E 3 21475 18081 8996 White 22
1 PM Wed 77 86 S 2 21674 19312 10227 White 23
2 PM Wed 78 86 SW 1 21674 19312 10227 White 23
3 PM Wed 78 85 SW 0 21475 18081 8996 White 22
4 PM Wed 78 83 W 0 19787 16934 7849 Blue 20
5 PM Wed 77 80 NW 1 17007 15576 6491 Blue 17
6 PM Wed 74 75 NW 3 14632 12735 3650 Blue 12
7 PM Wed 71 71 NW 6 12196 9750 665 Blue 8
8 PM Wed 68 68 NW 8 9779 9085 0 Blue 5
9 PM Wed 67 67 NW 10 9391 9085 0 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 65 65 NW 12 8600 9085 0 Blue 2
11 PM Wed 64 64 NW 13 8195 9085 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 63 63 NW 14 7784 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 62 62 NW 14 6873 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 60 60 NW 14 6873 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 59 59 NW 14 6873 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 58 NW 14 6873 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 58 58 NW 13 6873 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 60 60 NW 12 6873 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 63 63 NW 9 7784 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 66 68 NW 8 9779 9085 0 Blue 5
9 AM Thu 68 71 N 6 12196 9750 665 Blue 8
10 AM Thu 70 76 E 5 15184 13348 4263 Blue 13
11 AM Thu 72 79 SE 3 16776 15047 5962 Blue 16
12 Noon Thu 74 82 SE 3 18569 16705 7620 Blue 19
1 PM Thu 75 83 S 3 19787 16934 7849 Blue 20
2 PM Thu 76 83 S 3 19787 16934 7849 Blue 20
3 PM Thu 76 82 SW 3 18569 16705 7620 Blue 19
4 PM Thu 75 79 W 5 16776 15047 5962 Blue 16
5 PM Thu 74 76 W 6 15184 13348 4263 Blue 13
6 PM Thu 71 72 W 10 12845 10708 1623 Blue 9
7 PM Thu 67 67 W 15 9391 9085 0 Blue 4
8 PM Thu 64 64 W 18 8195 9085 0 Blue 1
9 PM Thu 61 61 W 18 6873 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 60 60 W 17 6873 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 58 58 W 15 6873 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 58 58 W 15 6873 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 57 57 W 15 6873 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 56 56 W 15 6873 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 55 55 W 15 6873 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 55 55 W 16 6873 9085 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com