Detailed Predictions for: Horseshoe
Launch Altitude (f): 9085
LZ Altitude (f): 3640
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

21 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Tue 38 38 NW 12 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 38 38 NW 12 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 38 38 NW 10 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 40 40 NW 9 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 45 45 NW 7 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 49 49 N 5 7031 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 56 57 N 3 9385 9085 0 Blue 7
11 AM Tue 60 62 NE 3 10995 10056 971 Blue 12
12 Noon Tue 61 63 E 3 11451 10375 1290 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 63 65 E 3 12892 10942 1857 Blue 15
2 PM Tue 63 64 SE 3 12184 10593 1508 Blue 14
3 PM Tue 62 62 SW 3 10995 10056 971 Blue 12
4 PM Tue 52 52 W 3 8239 9085 0 Blue 2
5 PM Tue 48 48 W 5 6513 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 46 46 W 5 5433 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 45 45 NW 6 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 43 43 NW 6 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 42 42 W 6 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 42 42 W 6 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 42 42 W 6 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 42 42 W 7 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 41 41 W 7 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 41 41 W 7 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 41 41 W 7 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 41 41 W 7 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 40 40 W 7 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 40 40 W 7 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 42 42 W 7 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 47 47 SW 6 5981 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 52 53 S 5 8470 9085 0 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 60 62 SE 3 10995 10056 971 Blue 12
11 AM Wed 63 65 SE 3 12892 10942 1857 Blue 15
12 Noon Wed 65 67 SE 3 13783 12072 2987 Blue 17
1 PM Wed 67 69 SE 3 14210 13431 4346 Blue 19
2 PM Wed 67 68 SE 3 13997 12770 3685 Blue 18
3 PM Wed 66 66 S 3 13561 11392 2307 Blue 16
4 PM Wed 54 54 S 5 8700 9085 0 Blue 4
5 PM Wed 50 50 S 6 7544 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 47 47 SW 7 5981 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 46 46 W 8 5433 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 45 45 W 8 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 44 44 W 9 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 44 44 W 9 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 44 44 W 10 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 43 43 W 12 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 42 42 W 13 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 42 42 W 13 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 42 42 W 13 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 42 42 W 12 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 41 41 W 10 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 41 41 SW 8 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 43 43 SW 7 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 48 48 SW 6 6513 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 53 54 SW 5 8700 9085 0 Blue 4
10 AM Thu 61 62 S 3 10995 10056 971 Blue 12
11 AM Thu 64 66 S 3 13561 11392 2307 Blue 16
12 Noon Thu 66 68 S 3 13997 12770 3685 Blue 18
1 PM Thu 68 69 S 3 14210 13431 4346 Blue 19
2 PM Thu 68 69 S 3 14210 13431 4346 Blue 19
3 PM Thu 67 67 SW 3 13783 12072 2987 Blue 17
4 PM Thu 55 55 SW 3 8929 9085 0 Blue 5
5 PM Thu 51 51 SW 5 7990 9085 0 Blue 1
6 PM Thu 48 48 W 7 6513 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 46 46 W 8 5433 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 45 45 W 9 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 44 44 W 10 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 44 44 W 10 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 44 44 W 10 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 43 43 W 10 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 42 42 W 10 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 42 42 W 10 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 42 42 W 9 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 42 42 W 9 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 41 41 W 8 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 41 41 SW 8 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 43 43 SW 7 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 48 48 S 6 6513 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 52 52 S 5 8239 9085 0 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 60 61 SE 5 10616 9690 605 Blue 11
11 AM Fri 63 65 S 5 12892 10942 1857 Blue 15
12 Noon Fri 65 67 S 5 13783 12072 2987 Blue 17
1 PM Fri 67 68 S 5 13997 12770 3685 Blue 18
2 PM Fri 67 68 SW 6 13997 12770 3685 Blue 18
3 PM Fri 66 66 SW 6 13561 11392 2307 Blue 16
4 PM Fri 53 53 W 7 8470 9085 0 Blue 3
5 PM Fri 49 49 W 8 7031 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 46 46 W 9 5433 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 45 45 W 10 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 43 43 W 13 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 42 42 W 14 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 42 42 W 15 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 42 42 W 16 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 41 41 W 17 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 40 40 W 18 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 40 40 W 20 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 40 40 W 21 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 40 40 W 21 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 39 39 W 21 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 39 39 W 21 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 41 41 W 20 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 46 46 W 20 5433 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 51 51 W 18 7990 9085 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 60 61 SW 18 10616 9690 605 Blue 11
11 AM Sat 63 65 SW 18 12892 10942 1857 Blue 15
12 Noon Sat 65 67 W 20 13783 12072 2987 Blue 17
1 PM Sat 67 68 W 20 13997 12770 3685 Blue 18
2 PM Sat 67 68 W 21 13997 12770 3685 Blue 18
3 PM Sat 66 66 W 21 13561 11392 2307 Blue 16
4 PM Sat 53 53 W 22 8470 9085 0 Blue 3
5 PM Sat 49 49 W 22 7031 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 46 46 W 23 5433 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 45 45 W 23 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 43 43 W 23 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 42 42 W 23 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 42 42 W 23 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 42 42 W 23 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 41 41 W 23 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 40 40 W 23 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 40 40 W 23 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 40 40 W 22 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 40 40 W 22 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 39 39 W 21 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 39 39 W 21 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 41 41 W 20 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 46 46 SW 18 5433 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 50 50 SW 17 7544 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 57 58 SW 17 9718 9085 0 Blue 8
11 AM Sun 61 62 SW 17 10995 10056 971 Blue 12
12 Noon Sun 62 63 SW 17 11451 10375 1290 Blue 13
1 PM Sun 64 65 SW 17 12892 10942 1857 Blue 15
2 PM Sun 64 64 W 17 12184 10593 1508 Blue 14
3 PM Sun 63 63 W 18 11451 10375 1290 Blue 13
4 PM Sun 51 51 W 18 7990 9085 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sun 47 47 W 20 5981 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 44 44 W 20 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 43 43 W 21 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 42 42 W 22 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 41 41 W 23 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 41 41 W 23 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 41 41 W 23 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 40 40 W 23 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 39 39 W 23 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 39 39 W 23 5180 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 39 39 W 23 5180 9085 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com