Detailed Predictions for: Horseshoe
Launch Altitude (f): 9085
LZ Altitude (f): 3640
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

16 OCT 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 35 35 NW 22 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 35 35 NW 22 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 36 36 NW 22 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 38 38 NW 22 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 42 43 N 22 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 47 49 N 23 7383 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 52 55 N 23 10936 9085 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Tue 55 59 N 22 13223 11335 2250 Blue 7
1 PM Tue 57 61 N 21 14334 12206 3121 Blue 9
2 PM Tue 57 61 N 20 14334 12206 3121 Blue 9
3 PM Tue 56 59 N 18 13223 11335 2250 Blue 7
4 PM Tue 54 55 N 18 10936 9085 0 Blue 3
5 PM Tue 51 51 N 17 8170 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 48 48 N 17 6982 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 44 44 N 16 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 42 42 NW 16 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 40 40 NW 16 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 40 40 NW 16 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 40 40 NW 16 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 39 39 NW 16 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 38 38 NW 16 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 37 37 NW 16 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 36 36 NW 16 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 36 36 NW 15 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 36 36 NW 15 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 37 37 NW 14 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 38 38 NW 13 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 41 41 NW 13 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 45 46 N 13 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 50 52 N 14 8555 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 54 57 N 14 11841 10421 1336 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 57 61 N 13 14334 12206 3121 Blue 9
1 PM Wed 58 62 N 12 14768 12999 3914 Blue 10
2 PM Wed 58 61 NE 9 14334 12206 3121 Blue 9
3 PM Wed 57 59 NE 8 13223 11335 2250 Blue 7
4 PM Wed 55 56 NE 7 11393 9502 417 Blue 4
5 PM Wed 53 53 NE 6 9586 9085 0 Blue 1
6 PM Wed 50 50 NE 5 7779 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 47 47 N 3 6574 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 45 45 NW 3 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 43 43 NW 5 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 42 42 NW 7 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 41 41 NW 8 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 40 40 NW 9 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 39 39 NW 9 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 38 38 NW 9 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 37 37 NW 10 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 37 37 NW 10 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 36 36 NW 10 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 36 36 NW 9 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 38 38 NW 8 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 41 41 NW 7 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 45 46 N 7 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 51 53 N 7 9586 9085 0 Blue 1
11 AM Thu 55 58 N 7 12265 10883 1798 Blue 6
12 Noon Thu 58 62 NE 7 14768 12999 3914 Blue 10
1 PM Thu 59 63 NE 7 15193 13795 4710 Blue 11
2 PM Thu 59 63 NE 7 15193 13795 4710 Blue 11
3 PM Thu 58 60 NE 7 13891 11777 2692 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 57 58 NE 7 12265 10883 1798 Blue 6
5 PM Thu 55 55 NE 7 10936 9085 0 Blue 3
6 PM Thu 53 53 NE 7 9586 9085 0 Blue 1
7 PM Thu 50 50 N 7 7779 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 48 48 N 7 6982 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 45 45 N 8 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 43 43 NW 9 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 42 42 NW 10 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 40 40 NW 10 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 39 39 NW 10 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 38 38 NW 10 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 38 38 NW 10 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 38 38 NW 10 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 40 40 NW 10 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 42 42 NW 10 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 45 45 N 10 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 49 49 N 10 7383 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 53 54 N 12 10468 9085 0 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 56 58 N 12 12265 10883 1798 Blue 6
11 AM Fri 59 62 N 12 14768 12999 3914 Blue 10
12 Noon Fri 61 65 N 12 16019 14663 5578 Blue 13
1 PM Fri 62 66 N 12 16421 15084 5999 Blue 14
2 PM Fri 62 66 N 12 16421 15084 5999 Blue 14
3 PM Fri 61 64 N 12 15610 14233 5148 Blue 12
4 PM Fri 60 61 N 12 14334 12206 3121 Blue 9
5 PM Fri 58 58 N 12 12265 10883 1798 Blue 6
6 PM Fri 56 56 N 12 11393 9502 417 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 54 54 N 12 10468 9085 0 Blue 2
8 PM Fri 51 51 N 10 8170 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 49 49 N 10 7383 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 46 46 N 10 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 44 44 NW 10 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 42 42 NW 10 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 40 40 NW 10 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 39 39 NW 10 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 39 39 NW 12 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 39 39 NW 12 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 41 41 NW 12 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 44 44 N 12 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 47 47 N 13 6574 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 51 51 N 13 8170 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 55 56 N 13 11393 9502 417 Blue 4
10 AM Sat 58 60 N 13 13891 11777 2692 Blue 8
11 AM Sat 61 64 N 13 15610 14233 5148 Blue 12
12 Noon Sat 63 67 N 12 16815 15496 6411 Blue 15
1 PM Sat 64 68 N 12 17203 15901 6816 Blue 15
2 PM Sat 64 67 N 10 16815 15496 6411 Blue 15
3 PM Sat 63 65 N 9 16019 14663 5578 Blue 13
4 PM Sat 62 63 N 8 15193 13795 4710 Blue 11
5 PM Sat 60 60 N 7 13891 11777 2692 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 57 57 N 6 11841 10421 1336 Blue 5
7 PM Sat 55 55 N 6 10936 9085 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sat 52 52 N 6 8555 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 49 49 N 5 7383 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 47 47 NW 5 6574 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 44 44 NW 5 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 43 43 NW 5 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 42 42 NW 3 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 41 41 NW 3 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 41 41 NW 3 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 42 42 NW 3 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 43 43 NW 3 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 45 45 NW 3 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 48 48 N 3 6982 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 51 51 N 3 8170 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 54 54 NE 5 10468 9085 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sun 57 58 NE 5 12265 10883 1798 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 59 61 E 5 14334 12206 3121 Blue 9
12 Noon Sun 61 63 E 5 15193 13795 4710 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 62 64 E 5 15610 14233 5148 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 62 64 E 6 15610 14233 5148 Blue 12
3 PM Sun 62 64 E 6 15610 14233 5148 Blue 12
4 PM Sun 61 62 E 6 14768 12999 3914 Blue 10
5 PM Sun 59 59 E 6 13223 11335 2250 Blue 7
6 PM Sun 57 57 E 6 11841 10421 1336 Blue 5
7 PM Sun 55 55 NE 5 10936 9085 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sun 52 52 N 5 8555 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 50 50 NW 5 7779 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 47 47 NW 3 6574 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 45 45 W 3 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 43 43 W 3 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 41 41 W 5 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 40 40 NW 5 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 40 40 NW 5 6499 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 41 41 NW 6 6499 9085 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com