Detailed Predictions for: Horseshoe
Launch Altitude (f): 9085
LZ Altitude (f): 3640
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

16 FEB 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sat 19 19 W 28 7970 9085 0 White 0
5 AM Sat 19 19 W 29 7970 9085 0 White 0
6 AM Sat 18 18 W 28 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 19 19 W 26 7970 9085 0 White 0
8 AM Sat 20 20 W 26 8195 9085 0 White 0
9 AM Sat 23 24 W 24 9093 9093 8 White 5
10 AM Sat 24 25 W 24 9317 9317 232 White 6
11 AM Sat 26 28 W 23 9985 9985 900 White 9
12 Noon Sat 27 29 W 25 10202 10202 1117 White 10
1 PM Sat 27 29 W 28 10202 10202 1117 White 10
2 PM Sat 26 27 W 30 9764 9764 679 White 8
3 PM Sat 25 26 W 32 9541 9541 456 White 7
4 PM Sat 23 23 W 32 8869 9085 0 White 4
5 PM Sat 21 21 W 31 8419 9085 0 White 0
6 PM Sat 18 18 W 31 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 17 17 W 30 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 17 17 W 29 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 17 17 W 28 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 17 17 W 26 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 16 16 W 24 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 15 15 W 22 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 15 15 W 20 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 15 15 W 21 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 14 14 W 21 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 14 14 W 18 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 14 14 W 21 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 14 14 W 21 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 15 15 W 18 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 16 16 W 18 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 19 19 NW 18 7970 9085 0 White 0
10 AM Sun 21 21 W 18 8419 9085 0 White 0
11 AM Sun 21 21 NW 14 8419 9085 0 White 0
12 Noon Sun 21 21 NW 15 8419 9085 0 White 0
1 PM Sun 21 21 W 17 8419 9085 0 White 0
2 PM Sun 21 21 NW 16 8419 9085 0 White 0
3 PM Sun 20 20 NW 16 8195 9085 0 White 0
4 PM Sun 18 18 NW 18 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 17 17 NW 20 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 15 15 NW 23 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 14 14 NW 24 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 14 14 NW 26 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 14 14 NW 28 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 14 14 NW 29 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 13 13 NW 28 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 12 12 NW 26 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 11 11 NW 25 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 11 11 NW 26 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 11 11 NW 26 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 11 11 NW 26 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 11 11 NW 26 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 12 12 NW 25 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 12 12 NW 29 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 14 14 NW 25 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 16 17 NW 25 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 19 20 N 31 8195 9085 0 White 0
11 AM Mon 20 22 N 24 8644 9085 0 White 0
12 Noon Mon 21 23 N 24 8869 9085 0 White 4
1 PM Mon 21 23 N 26 8869 9085 0 White 4
2 PM Mon 21 22 N 22 8644 9085 0 White 0
3 PM Mon 20 21 N 21 8419 9085 0 White 0
4 PM Mon 19 19 N 25 7970 9085 0 White 0
5 PM Mon 18 18 N 21 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 16 16 NW 22 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 15 15 N 25 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 15 15 NW 24 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 14 14 NW 24 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 14 14 NW 28 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 14 14 NW 23 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 13 13 NW 23 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 12 12 NW 24 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 12 12 NW 22 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 11 11 NW 23 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 11 11 NW 21 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 11 11 NW 21 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 11 11 NW 20 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 13 13 NW 20 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 15 15 NW 20 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 19 20 N 20 8195 9085 0 White 0
10 AM Tue 22 24 N 20 9093 9093 8 White 5
11 AM Tue 24 27 N 18 9764 9764 679 White 8
12 Noon Tue 26 29 N 18 10202 10202 1117 White 10
1 PM Tue 26 28 N 17 9985 9985 900 White 9
2 PM Tue 26 28 N 16 9985 9985 900 White 9
3 PM Tue 25 26 N 16 9541 9541 456 White 7
4 PM Tue 23 23 N 16 8869 9085 0 White 4
5 PM Tue 20 20 N 16 8195 9085 0 White 0
6 PM Tue 17 17 NW 16 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 15 15 NW 17 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 14 14 NW 18 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 13 13 NW 20 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 13 13 NW 21 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 13 13 NW 21 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 13 13 NW 21 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 13 13 NW 20 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 14 14 NW 20 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 14 14 NW 18 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 15 15 NW 17 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 15 15 NW 15 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 15 15 NW 13 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 16 16 NW 13 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 19 19 NW 16 7970 9085 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 22 22 NW 22 8644 9085 0 White 0
10 AM Wed 25 25 NW 24 9317 9317 232 White 6
11 AM Wed 27 28 W 21 9985 9985 900 White 9
12 Noon Wed 28 29 S 15 10202 10202 1117 White 10
1 PM Wed 28 29 SE 10 10202 10202 1117 White 10
2 PM Wed 27 28 SE 9 9985 9985 900 White 9
3 PM Wed 25 25 SE 9 9317 9317 232 White 6
4 PM Wed 23 23 SE 10 8869 9085 0 White 4
5 PM Wed 21 21 S 12 8419 9085 0 White 0
6 PM Wed 20 20 SW 13 8195 9085 0 White 0
7 PM Wed 19 19 W 15 7970 9085 0 White 0
8 PM Wed 17 17 W 17 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 17 17 W 20 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 16 16 W 21 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 16 16 W 21 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 16 16 W 21 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 16 16 W 20 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 16 16 W 20 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 16 16 W 18 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 16 16 W 18 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 16 16 W 17 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 16 16 W 17 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 17 17 NW 17 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 16 16 NW 18 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 16 16 NW 20 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 17 17 NW 21 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 20 21 NW 21 8419 9085 0 White 0
12 Noon Thu 24 25 NW 21 9317 9317 232 White 6
1 PM Thu 26 27 NW 21 9764 9764 679 White 8
2 PM Thu 25 25 NW 21 9317 9317 232 White 6
3 PM Thu 24 24 NW 20 9093 9093 8 White 5
4 PM Thu 22 22 NW 20 8644 9085 0 White 0
5 PM Thu 20 20 NW 21 8195 9085 0 White 0
6 PM Thu 18 18 NW 22 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 17 17 NW 23 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 16 16 NW 24 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 17 17 NW 24 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 17 17 NW 24 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 16 16 NW 24 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 15 15 NW 23 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 15 15 NW 23 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 15 15 NW 23 7077 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 15 15 NW 23 7077 9085 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com