Detailed Predictions for: Horseshoe
Launch Altitude (f): 9085
LZ Altitude (f): 3640
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

19 AUG 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 62 62 NW 6 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 63 63 NW 5 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 66 66 N 3 8243 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 69 70 N 3 9689 9085 0 Blue 4
9 AM Sun 73 75 N 3 11545 10477 1392 Blue 9
10 AM Sun 77 81 E 5 14939 12863 3778 Blue 15
11 AM Sun 81 87 E 7 17206 16292 7207 Blue 21
12 Noon Sun 83 90 E 10 18767 17129 8044 Blue 24
1 PM Sun 84 91 SE 13 19339 17653 8568 Blue 25
2 PM Sun 84 91 SE 15 19339 17653 8568 Blue 25
3 PM Sun 84 90 SE 15 18767 17129 8044 Blue 24
4 PM Sun 83 87 S 14 17206 16292 7207 Blue 21
5 PM Sun 82 84 S 13 16424 14793 5708 Blue 18
6 PM Sun 79 80 S 12 14320 12167 3082 Blue 14
7 PM Sun 76 76 SW 12 11883 10822 1737 Blue 10
8 PM Sun 73 73 SW 10 10859 9665 580 Blue 7
9 PM Sun 70 70 SW 9 9689 9085 0 Blue 4
10 PM Sun 68 68 W 9 9003 9085 0 Blue 2
11 PM Sun 67 67 W 9 8654 9085 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Mon 66 66 W 9 8243 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 64 64 W 10 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 63 63 W 12 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 62 62 W 13 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 61 61 W 13 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 61 61 W 13 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 62 62 W 12 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 64 64 SW 10 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 68 68 SW 9 9003 9085 0 Blue 2
9 AM Mon 72 74 SW 8 11204 9999 914 Blue 8
10 AM Mon 76 80 S 8 14320 12167 3082 Blue 14
11 AM Mon 80 85 S 8 16724 15374 6289 Blue 19
12 Noon Mon 82 89 S 8 18172 16890 7805 Blue 23
1 PM Mon 83 90 S 9 18767 17129 8044 Blue 24
2 PM Mon 84 91 SW 10 19339 17653 8568 Blue 25
3 PM Mon 84 89 SW 12 18172 16890 7805 Blue 23
4 PM Mon 83 87 SW 13 17206 16292 7207 Blue 21
5 PM Mon 81 83 SW 14 15967 14180 5095 Blue 17
6 PM Mon 77 77 SW 14 12262 11163 2078 Blue 11
7 PM Mon 73 73 SW 13 10859 9665 580 Blue 7
8 PM Mon 70 70 SW 12 9689 9085 0 Blue 4
9 PM Mon 68 68 SW 10 9003 9085 0 Blue 2
10 PM Mon 67 67 SW 9 8654 9085 0 Blue 1
11 PM Mon 67 67 SW 8 8654 9085 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Tue 65 65 W 8 7570 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 64 64 W 9 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 62 62 W 10 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 61 61 W 10 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 60 60 W 10 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 60 60 W 10 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 61 61 W 9 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 63 63 SW 7 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 66 66 SW 6 8243 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 69 71 SW 7 10027 9085 0 Blue 5
10 AM Tue 73 76 S 8 11883 10822 1737 Blue 10
11 AM Tue 77 82 SE 9 15498 13538 4453 Blue 16
12 Noon Tue 79 85 SE 9 16724 15374 6289 Blue 19
1 PM Tue 80 86 S 9 16965 15839 6754 Blue 20
2 PM Tue 81 87 S 9 17206 16292 7207 Blue 21
3 PM Tue 81 86 S 9 16965 15839 6754 Blue 20
4 PM Tue 80 83 SW 9 15967 14180 5095 Blue 17
5 PM Tue 78 80 SW 9 14320 12167 3082 Blue 14
6 PM Tue 75 75 SW 9 11545 10477 1392 Blue 9
7 PM Tue 71 71 SW 10 10027 9085 0 Blue 5
8 PM Tue 68 68 SW 10 9003 9085 0 Blue 2
9 PM Tue 66 66 W 10 8243 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 65 65 W 9 7570 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 64 64 W 9 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 63 63 W 9 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 62 62 W 8 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 60 60 W 8 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 59 59 W 7 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 59 59 W 6 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 59 59 W 5 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 61 61 W 5 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 64 64 SW 5 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 67 67 S 6 8654 9085 0 Blue 1
9 AM Wed 71 73 S 6 10859 9665 580 Blue 7
10 AM Wed 74 78 SE 8 12986 11501 2416 Blue 12
11 AM Wed 77 82 SE 9 15498 13538 4453 Blue 16
12 Noon Wed 79 86 SE 12 16965 15839 6754 Blue 20
1 PM Wed 81 88 SE 14 17756 16650 7565 Blue 22
2 PM Wed 81 88 S 16 17756 16650 7565 Blue 22
3 PM Wed 81 86 S 18 16965 15839 6754 Blue 20
4 PM Wed 80 84 S 20 16424 14793 5708 Blue 18
5 PM Wed 79 81 S 21 14939 12863 3778 Blue 15
6 PM Wed 77 77 S 20 12262 11163 2078 Blue 11
7 PM Wed 75 75 SW 18 11545 10477 1392 Blue 9
8 PM Wed 73 73 SW 17 10859 9665 580 Blue 7
9 PM Wed 70 70 SW 15 9689 9085 0 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 68 68 W 13 9003 9085 0 Blue 2
11 PM Wed 66 66 W 10 8243 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 63 63 W 9 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 62 62 W 8 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 60 60 NW 7 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 59 59 NW 6 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 59 59 NW 6 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 60 60 N 6 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 62 62 N 6 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 64 64 N 7 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 68 68 NE 8 9003 9085 0 Blue 2
9 AM Thu 71 73 E 9 10859 9665 580 Blue 7
10 AM Thu 74 78 E 10 12986 11501 2416 Blue 12
11 AM Thu 77 83 E 12 15967 14180 5095 Blue 17
12 Noon Thu 79 86 SE 13 16965 15839 6754 Blue 20
1 PM Thu 80 87 SE 14 17206 16292 7207 Blue 21
2 PM Thu 81 88 SE 15 17756 16650 7565 Blue 22
3 PM Thu 81 86 SE 16 16965 15839 6754 Blue 20
4 PM Thu 80 84 S 16 16424 14793 5708 Blue 18
5 PM Thu 79 81 S 16 14939 12863 3778 Blue 15
6 PM Thu 78 79 S 15 13670 11835 2750 Blue 13
7 PM Thu 76 76 S 15 11883 10822 1737 Blue 10
8 PM Thu 74 74 SW 13 11204 9999 914 Blue 8
9 PM Thu 71 71 W 12 10027 9085 0 Blue 5
10 PM Thu 69 69 W 10 9348 9085 0 Blue 3
11 PM Thu 66 66 W 9 8243 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 64 64 W 8 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 61 61 W 8 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 59 59 NW 8 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 58 58 NW 8 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 58 58 NW 8 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 59 59 NW 8 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 61 61 N 8 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 63 63 N 9 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 66 66 NE 9 8243 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 70 72 NE 10 10511 9327 242 Blue 6
10 AM Fri 73 77 E 10 12262 11163 2078 Blue 11
11 AM Fri 76 81 E 12 14939 12863 3778 Blue 15
12 Noon Fri 78 85 E 13 16724 15374 6289 Blue 19
1 PM Fri 79 86 SE 14 16965 15839 6754 Blue 20
2 PM Fri 80 87 SE 15 17206 16292 7207 Blue 21
3 PM Fri 80 85 SE 15 16724 15374 6289 Blue 19
4 PM Fri 79 83 SE 16 15967 14180 5095 Blue 17
5 PM Fri 78 80 S 16 14320 12167 3082 Blue 14
6 PM Fri 77 77 S 16 12262 11163 2078 Blue 11
7 PM Fri 75 75 S 15 11545 10477 1392 Blue 9
8 PM Fri 73 73 SW 14 10859 9665 580 Blue 7
9 PM Fri 71 71 W 14 10027 9085 0 Blue 5
10 PM Fri 68 68 W 13 9003 9085 0 Blue 2
11 PM Fri 66 66 NW 12 8243 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 64 64 NW 12 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 61 61 NW 10 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 59 59 NW 10 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 58 58 NW 9 7073 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 58 58 N 9 7073 9085 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com