Detailed Predictions for: Horseshoe
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.472708, -118.115092, 9085
LZ Altitude (f): 3640
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

16 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 58 58 W 6 9 7035 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 57 57 WNW 5 8 6639 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 56 56 WNW 5 8 6237 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 55 55 WNW 5 8 5830 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 54 54 WNW 5 8 5416 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 54 54 WNW 5 8 5416 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 54 54 WNW 4 6 5416 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 54 54 WNW 3 4 5416 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 58 58 W 3 4 7035 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 64 65 NW 3 4 9672 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 67 70 NE 4 6 12758 10562 1477 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 69 74 E 6 9 15139 13272 4187 Blue 7
12 Noon Thu 71 77 E 9 12 16714 15000 5915 Blue 10
1 PM Thu 72 78 SE 12 17 17208 15536 6451 Blue 11
2 PM Thu 73 79 SSE 14 20 17690 16056 6971 Blue 12
3 PM Thu 73 77 S 14 20 16714 15000 5915 Blue 10
4 PM Thu 73 76 S 14 20 16205 14446 5361 Blue 9
5 PM Thu 73 74 SSW 13 19 15139 13272 4187 Blue 7
6 PM Thu 72 72 SW 12 17 13997 11990 2905 Blue 5
7 PM Thu 67 67 W 11 16 10640 9286 201 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 65 65 W 10 14 9672 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 58 58 W 8 11 7035 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 58 58 W 5 8 7035 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 57 57 W 4 6 6639 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 56 56 W 4 6 6237 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 56 56 W 4 6 6237 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 55 55 W 4 6 5830 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 53 53 W 4 6 4996 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 53 53 W 4 6 4996 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 53 53 W 4 6 4996 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 54 54 WSW 4 6 5416 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 56 56 SW 5 8 6237 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 58 58 SSW 6 9 7035 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 61 62 SSW 9 12 8569 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 65 68 S 12 17 11389 9646 561 Blue 2
11 AM Fri 68 73 SSE 14 23 14579 12647 3562 Blue 6
12 Noon Fri 70 76 SSE 17 26 16205 14446 5361 Blue 9
1 PM Fri 71 77 SSE 19 29 16714 15000 5915 Blue 10
2 PM Fri 71 76 SSE 20 31 16205 14446 5361 Blue 9
3 PM Fri 71 75 S 20 31 15681 13871 4786 Blue 8
4 PM Fri 71 74 S 20 31 15139 13272 4187 Blue 7
5 PM Fri 70 71 S 19 29 13391 11298 2213 Blue 4
6 PM Fri 68 68 S 18 27 11389 9646 561 Blue 2
7 PM Fri 66 66 SSW 16 24 10031 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 63 63 SSW 14 20 8941 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 61 61 SSW 14 20 8193 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 59 59 SW 14 20 7426 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 57 57 SW 14 20 6639 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 56 56 SW 14 20 6237 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 56 56 SW 13 19 6237 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 56 56 SW 13 19 6237 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 55 55 SW 13 19 5830 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 54 54 SW 13 19 5416 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 54 54 SW 13 19 5416 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 55 55 SW 12 17 5830 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 56 56 SSW 10 14 6237 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 58 58 SSW 10 14 7035 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 61 62 SSW 12 17 8569 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 64 67 S 14 20 10640 9286 201 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 66 71 S 17 24 13391 11298 2213 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 68 74 S 18 25 15139 13272 4187 Blue 7
1 PM Sat 69 75 S 17 26 15681 13871 4786 Blue 8
2 PM Sat 69 74 S 17 26 15139 13272 4187 Blue 7
3 PM Sat 69 73 S 17 26 14579 12647 3562 Blue 6
4 PM Sat 69 72 SSW 17 26 13997 11990 2905 Blue 5
5 PM Sat 68 69 SSW 16 24 12092 10001 916 Blue 3
6 PM Sat 66 66 SW 14 23 10031 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 63 63 WSW 12 19 8941 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 60 60 W 11 16 7812 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 57 57 W 10 14 6639 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 55 55 W 10 14 5830 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 53 53 W 10 14 4996 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 52 52 W 10 14 4800 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 52 52 W 10 14 4800 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 52 52 W 10 14 4800 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 51 51 W 10 14 4800 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 50 50 W 10 14 4800 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 50 50 W 10 14 4800 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 51 51 WSW 10 14 4800 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 52 52 WSW 9 12 4800 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 55 55 WSW 9 12 5830 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 59 60 SW 9 12 7812 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 63 66 SSW 10 14 10031 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 66 71 SSW 10 16 13391 11298 2213 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 68 74 SSW 10 16 15139 13272 4187 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 69 75 SSW 10 16 15681 13871 4786 Blue 8
2 PM Sun 70 76 SSW 10 16 16205 14446 5361 Blue 9
3 PM Sun 71 75 SW 11 17 15681 13871 4786 Blue 8
4 PM Sun 71 74 WSW 11 17 15139 13272 4187 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 70 71 WSW 12 19 13391 11298 2213 Blue 4
6 PM Sun 67 67 WSW 12 19 10640 9286 201 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 64 64 W 12 19 9308 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 60 60 W 12 19 7812 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 57 57 W 12 19 6639 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 55 55 W 11 17 5830 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 53 53 WNW 11 17 4996 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 52 52 WNW 12 19 4800 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 51 51 NW 12 19 4800 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 51 51 NW 13 20 4800 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 50 50 NW 13 20 4800 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 49 49 NNW 13 20 4800 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 48 48 NNW 12 19 4800 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 48 48 NNW 11 17 4800 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 49 49 NNW 11 17 4800 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 50 50 N 10 16 4800 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 53 54 N 10 16 5416 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 56 59 N 9 13 7426 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 59 64 N 9 12 9308 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 61 67 NNE 9 12 10640 9286 201 Blue 1
1 PM Mon 62 68 NNE 9 12 11389 9646 561 Blue 2
2 PM Mon 63 69 NE 9 12 12092 10001 916 Blue 3
3 PM Mon 64 68 NNE 9 12 11389 9646 561 Blue 2
4 PM Mon 64 67 NNW 9 12 10640 9286 201 Blue 1
5 PM Mon 64 65 NW 9 12 9672 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 62 62 NW 8 11 8569 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 60 60 NW 8 11 7812 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 57 57 NNW 6 9 6639 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 54 54 NNW 5 8 5416 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 52 52 NNW 5 8 4800 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 50 50 NNW 5 8 4800 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 49 49 NNW 5 8 4800 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 49 49 NW 6 9 4800 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 49 49 NW 6 9 4800 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 48 48 NW 6 9 4800 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 47 47 NW 8 11 4800 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 47 47 NW 8 11 4800 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 48 48 W 8 11 4800 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 50 50 W 8 11 4800 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 52 52 W 8 11 4800 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 55 56 WSW 8 11 6237 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 59 62 SW 8 11 8569 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 62 67 SSW 9 12 10640 9286 201 Blue 1
12 Noon Tue 64 70 SSW 10 14 12758 10562 1477 Blue 3
1 PM Tue 65 71 SSW 11 16 13391 11298 2213 Blue 4
2 PM Tue 66 72 SSW 12 17 13997 11990 2905 Blue 5
3 PM Tue 67 71 SSW 12 17 13391 11298 2213 Blue 4
4 PM Tue 68 71 SSW 12 17 13391 11298 2213 Blue 4
5 PM Tue 67 68 SSW 11 16 11389 9646 561 Blue 2
6 PM Tue 65 65 SW 11 16 9672 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 62 62 W 10 14 8569 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 59 59 W 10 14 7426 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 57 57 W 9 12 6639 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 54 54 WNW 9 12 5416 9085 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com