Detailed Predictions for: Horseshoe
Launch Altitude (f): 9085
LZ Altitude (f): 3640
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

14 DEC 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 29 29 W 14 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 28 28 W 15 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 28 28 W 15 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 29 29 W 15 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 32 32 W 15 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 36 36 SW 14 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 41 41 SW 14 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 44 44 SW 15 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 46 46 SW 16 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 46 46 SW 18 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 44 44 SW 20 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 41 41 W 21 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 39 39 W 22 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 36 36 W 23 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 35 35 W 24 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 34 34 W 25 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 33 33 W 25 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 32 32 W 25 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 31 31 W 24 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 31 31 W 23 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 31 31 W 21 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 30 30 W 20 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 29 29 W 18 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 28 28 W 17 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 28 28 W 16 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 27 27 W 15 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 27 27 W 13 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 29 29 W 12 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 32 32 W 9 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 36 36 W 8 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 41 42 W 7 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 45 46 SW 7 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 47 49 SW 8 7649 9085 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 48 49 SW 9 7649 9085 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 46 47 SW 10 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 43 43 W 12 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 39 39 W 13 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 36 36 W 13 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 34 34 W 14 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 32 32 W 14 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 31 31 W 15 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 30 30 W 15 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 29 29 W 16 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 29 29 W 16 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 29 29 W 17 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 29 29 W 17 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 29 29 W 17 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 29 29 W 17 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 28 28 W 17 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 28 28 W 17 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 29 29 W 16 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 31 31 W 16 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 34 34 W 15 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 39 39 SW 14 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 44 45 SW 14 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 48 49 SW 14 7649 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 50 51 SW 15 8398 9085 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 50 51 SW 15 8398 9085 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 49 49 SW 15 7649 9085 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 48 48 SW 15 7268 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 46 46 SW 15 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 45 45 SW 15 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 44 44 SW 15 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 43 43 SW 15 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 42 42 SW 15 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 42 42 SW 16 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 42 42 SW 17 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 42 42 SW 18 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 42 42 SW 21 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 42 42 SW 21 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 42 42 SW 18 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 42 42 SW 16 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 41 41 SW 14 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 40 40 SW 14 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 38 38 SW 13 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 35 35 SW 13 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 34 34 SW 12 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 32 32 SW 10 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 31 31 SW 9 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 32 33 SW 8 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 34 35 W 8 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 35 36 W 7 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 36 36 W 7 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 37 37 W 8 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 38 38 NW 8 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 38 38 NW 9 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 38 38 NW 9 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 37 37 NW 10 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 36 36 NW 10 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 34 34 NW 12 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 33 33 NW 12 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 31 31 NW 12 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 30 30 NW 12 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 30 30 NW 12 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 30 30 NW 12 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 31 31 NW 12 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 31 31 NW 12 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 33 33 NW 12 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 35 35 NW 10 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 37 37 NW 10 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 38 38 NW 10 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 40 40 NW 9 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 42 43 NW 9 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 42 43 NW 9 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 43 45 NW 8 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 43 44 NW 8 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 43 44 N 8 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 42 42 N 8 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 42 42 N 8 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 41 41 N 8 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 40 40 NW 8 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 39 39 NW 9 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 38 38 NW 9 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 37 37 NW 9 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 36 36 NW 10 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 35 35 NW 10 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 34 34 NW 10 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 33 33 NW 10 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 33 33 NW 10 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 33 33 NW 9 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 34 34 NW 9 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 36 36 NW 9 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 38 38 NW 9 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 40 40 NW 9 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 43 43 NW 8 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 45 45 N 8 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 47 48 N 8 7268 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 48 49 N 7 7649 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 49 51 N 7 8398 9085 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 49 50 N 7 8026 9085 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 49 50 N 7 8026 9085 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 48 48 N 7 7268 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 47 47 N 7 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 46 46 N 7 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 44 44 N 7 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 43 43 N 7 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 41 41 NW 8 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 39 39 NW 9 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 38 38 NW 9 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 37 37 NW 9 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 36 36 NW 9 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 35 35 NW 9 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 35 35 NW 9 6988 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 35 35 NW 9 6988 9085 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com