Detailed Predictions for: Horseshoe
Launch Altitude (f): 9085
LZ Altitude (f): 3640
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

25 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Mon 37 37 NW 17 4885 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 36 36 NW 17 4885 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 36 36 N 17 4885 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 41 41 N 17 4885 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 44 45 N 17 6415 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 47 49 N 17 8197 9085 0 Blue 2
11 AM Mon 55 59 N 17 10019 9118 33 Blue 12
12 Noon Mon 57 61 N 17 10634 9683 598 Blue 14
1 PM Mon 58 63 N 16 11239 10299 1214 Blue 16
2 PM Mon 60 64 N 16 11538 10603 1518 Blue 17
3 PM Mon 60 63 N 16 11239 10299 1214 Blue 16
4 PM Mon 61 63 N 15 11239 10299 1214 Blue 16
5 PM Mon 52 52 N 15 8559 9085 0 Blue 5
6 PM Mon 51 51 N 15 8439 9085 0 Blue 4
7 PM Mon 49 49 N 16 8197 9085 0 Blue 2
8 PM Mon 47 47 NW 17 7922 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 45 45 NW 18 6415 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 43 43 NW 18 4885 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 42 42 NW 18 4885 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 42 42 NW 18 4885 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 42 42 NW 17 4885 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 42 42 NW 17 4885 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 41 41 NW 18 4885 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 40 40 NW 18 4885 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 40 40 NW 20 4885 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 39 39 NW 20 4885 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 39 39 N 18 4885 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 44 44 N 18 5582 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 47 48 N 18 8076 9085 0 Blue 1
10 AM Tue 49 51 N 20 8439 9085 0 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 58 62 N 20 10938 9993 908 Blue 15
12 Noon Tue 59 64 N 20 11538 10603 1518 Blue 17
1 PM Tue 61 66 N 18 12130 11202 2117 Blue 19
2 PM Tue 62 66 N 17 12130 11202 2117 Blue 19
3 PM Tue 62 65 N 16 11835 10903 1818 Blue 18
4 PM Tue 63 65 N 15 11835 10903 1818 Blue 18
5 PM Tue 54 55 NE 14 8922 9085 0 Blue 8
6 PM Tue 53 53 N 13 8680 9085 0 Blue 6
7 PM Tue 50 50 N 13 8318 9085 0 Blue 3
8 PM Tue 48 48 N 13 8076 9085 0 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 46 46 N 13 7192 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 45 45 N 13 6415 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 44 44 NW 13 5582 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 43 43 NW 13 4885 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 43 43 NW 12 4885 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 43 43 NW 12 4885 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 42 42 NW 12 4885 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 41 41 NW 13 4885 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 41 41 NW 13 4885 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 40 40 NW 13 4885 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 40 40 N 13 4885 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 45 45 N 13 6415 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 49 50 N 13 8318 9085 0 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 51 54 N 13 8801 9085 0 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 60 64 N 13 11538 10603 1518 Blue 17
12 Noon Wed 62 67 N 12 12423 11499 2414 Blue 20
1 PM Wed 63 69 N 10 13002 12085 3000 Blue 22
2 PM Wed 65 70 N 9 13908 12375 3290 Blue 23
3 PM Wed 65 69 NE 8 13002 12085 3000 Blue 22
4 PM Wed 66 68 NE 7 12713 11793 2708 Blue 21
5 PM Wed 57 58 NE 7 9706 9085 0 Blue 11
6 PM Wed 55 55 NE 7 8922 9085 0 Blue 8
7 PM Wed 52 52 NE 7 8559 9085 0 Blue 5
8 PM Wed 50 50 NE 7 8318 9085 0 Blue 3
9 PM Wed 48 48 N 7 8076 9085 0 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 47 47 N 7 7922 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 46 46 NW 7 7192 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 45 45 NW 7 6415 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 45 45 NW 8 6415 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 45 45 NW 8 6415 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 44 44 NW 8 5582 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 43 43 NW 8 4885 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 43 43 NW 8 4885 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 42 42 NW 8 4885 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 42 42 N 8 4885 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 47 47 N 7 7922 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 51 52 NE 7 8559 9085 0 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 53 56 E 7 9134 9085 0 Blue 9
11 AM Thu 62 66 E 7 12130 11202 2117 Blue 19
12 Noon Thu 64 69 E 7 13002 12085 3000 Blue 22
1 PM Thu 65 71 E 7 14918 12664 3579 Blue 24
2 PM Thu 67 72 E 8 15779 12950 3865 Blue 25
3 PM Thu 67 71 SE 8 14918 12664 3579 Blue 24
4 PM Thu 68 70 SE 8 13908 12375 3290 Blue 23
5 PM Thu 58 59 SE 8 10019 9118 33 Blue 12
6 PM Thu 57 57 SE 8 9413 9085 0 Blue 10
7 PM Thu 54 54 S 7 8801 9085 0 Blue 7
8 PM Thu 52 52 SW 7 8559 9085 0 Blue 5
9 PM Thu 50 50 SW 7 8318 9085 0 Blue 3
10 PM Thu 48 48 W 6 8076 9085 0 Blue 1
11 PM Thu 47 47 W 6 7922 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 46 46 W 6 7192 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 46 46 NW 6 7192 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 46 46 NW 6 7192 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 45 45 NW 7 6415 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 44 44 NW 7 5582 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 44 44 NW 7 5582 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 43 43 NW 7 4885 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 43 43 N 7 4885 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 49 49 NE 7 8197 9085 0 Blue 2
9 AM Fri 53 54 E 7 8801 9085 0 Blue 7
10 AM Fri 55 58 E 7 9706 9085 0 Blue 11
11 AM Fri 65 69 SE 7 13002 12085 3000 Blue 22
12 Noon Fri 67 72 SE 7 15779 12950 3865 Blue 25
1 PM Fri 69 74 SE 8 16664 14660 5575 Blue 27
2 PM Fri 70 75 SE 8 17093 15649 6564 Blue 28
3 PM Fri 71 75 SE 9 17093 15649 6564 Blue 28
4 PM Fri 72 74 SE 9 16664 14660 5575 Blue 27
5 PM Fri 61 62 SE 9 10938 9993 908 Blue 15
6 PM Fri 60 60 S 9 10328 9395 310 Blue 13
7 PM Fri 56 56 S 8 9134 9085 0 Blue 9
8 PM Fri 54 54 SW 8 8801 9085 0 Blue 7
9 PM Fri 51 51 SW 8 8439 9085 0 Blue 4
10 PM Fri 50 50 W 7 8318 9085 0 Blue 3
11 PM Fri 48 48 W 7 8076 9085 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sat 48 48 W 7 8076 9085 0 Blue 1
1 AM Sat 48 48 W 7 8076 9085 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sat 47 47 W 7 7922 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 46 46 NW 8 7192 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 46 46 NW 8 7192 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 45 45 NW 8 6415 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 44 44 NW 8 5582 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 44 44 N 8 5582 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 50 50 NE 8 8318 9085 0 Blue 3
9 AM Sat 54 55 NE 7 8922 9085 0 Blue 8
10 AM Sat 56 59 E 7 10019 9118 33 Blue 12
11 AM Sat 66 70 E 7 13908 12375 3290 Blue 23
12 Noon Sat 68 73 E 7 16227 13690 4605 Blue 26
1 PM Sat 70 75 SE 7 17093 15649 6564 Blue 28
2 PM Sat 71 76 SE 7 17513 16097 7012 Blue 29
3 PM Sat 72 76 SE 7 17513 16097 7012 Blue 29
4 PM Sat 73 75 SE 7 17093 15649 6564 Blue 28
5 PM Sat 62 63 SE 7 11239 10299 1214 Blue 16
6 PM Sat 61 61 SE 7 10634 9683 598 Blue 14
7 PM Sat 58 58 S 7 9706 9085 0 Blue 11
8 PM Sat 55 55 SW 7 8922 9085 0 Blue 8
9 PM Sat 53 53 W 8 8680 9085 0 Blue 6
10 PM Sat 51 51 W 8 8439 9085 0 Blue 4
11 PM Sat 50 50 NW 8 8318 9085 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sun 50 50 NW 8 8318 9085 0 Blue 3
1 AM Sun 50 50 NW 8 8318 9085 0 Blue 3
2 AM Sun 49 49 NW 9 8197 9085 0 Blue 2
3 AM Sun 48 48 NW 9 8076 9085 0 Blue 1
4 AM Sun 47 47 NW 9 7922 9085 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com