Detailed Predictions for: Horseshoe
Launch Altitude (f): 9085
LZ Altitude (f): 3640
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

19 JUN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 46 46 NW 8 7280 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 47 47 NW 8 7280 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 50 50 N 8 7280 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 53 54 N 8 7340 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 58 61 N 8 7846 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 63 67 NE 8 8743 9085 0 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 67 73 NE 8 10583 9378 293 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 70 77 E 8 12274 11084 1999 Blue 14
1 PM Tue 71 79 E 9 12772 11986 2901 Blue 16
2 PM Tue 72 80 E 9 13020 12235 3150 Blue 17
3 PM Tue 72 78 E 10 12524 11560 2475 Blue 15
4 PM Tue 71 76 E 10 12022 10526 1441 Blue 13
5 PM Tue 70 73 E 10 10583 9378 293 Blue 10
6 PM Tue 68 69 E 9 9138 9085 0 Blue 6
7 PM Tue 67 67 E 7 8743 9085 0 Blue 4
8 PM Tue 65 65 E 6 8346 9085 0 Blue 2
9 PM Tue 62 62 NE 6 7918 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 60 60 N 6 7773 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 58 58 NW 6 7629 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 57 57 NW 6 7557 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 56 56 NW 7 7484 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 54 54 NW 7 7340 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 52 52 NW 7 7280 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 51 51 W 7 7280 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 51 51 W 6 7280 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 53 53 NW 5 7280 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 57 57 N 3 7557 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 63 64 N 3 8179 9085 0 Blue 1
9 AM Wed 68 71 NE 3 9760 9085 0 Blue 8
10 AM Wed 73 78 E 5 12524 11560 2475 Blue 15
11 AM Wed 78 85 SE 7 15909 13464 4379 Blue 22
12 Noon Wed 81 89 SE 9 18850 16388 7303 Blue 26
1 PM Wed 84 93 SE 12 22427 19401 10316 Blue 30
2 PM Wed 85 93 SE 14 22427 19401 10316 Blue 30
3 PM Wed 85 92 SE 16 21649 18505 9420 Blue 29
4 PM Wed 84 89 S 17 18850 16388 7303 Blue 26
5 PM Wed 82 85 S 17 15909 13464 4379 Blue 22
6 PM Wed 79 80 S 15 13020 12235 3150 Blue 17
7 PM Wed 75 75 SE 13 11618 10084 999 Blue 12
8 PM Wed 71 71 SE 10 9760 9085 0 Blue 8
9 PM Wed 68 68 S 10 8941 9085 0 Blue 5
10 PM Wed 64 64 SW 10 8179 9085 0 Blue 1
11 PM Wed 62 62 W 12 7918 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 60 60 W 12 7773 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 58 58 W 12 7629 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 56 56 W 12 7484 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 54 54 W 12 7340 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 51 51 W 10 7280 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 51 51 W 9 7280 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 54 54 NW 7 7340 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 59 59 N 5 7701 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 65 66 N 3 8545 9085 0 Blue 3
9 AM Thu 71 74 NE 5 11150 9733 648 Blue 11
10 AM Thu 76 81 E 6 13267 12483 3398 Blue 18
11 AM Thu 81 87 SE 8 17220 14810 5725 Blue 24
12 Noon Thu 84 92 SE 10 21649 18505 9420 Blue 29
1 PM Thu 86 94 SE 12 23146 20387 11302 Blue 31
2 PM Thu 86 93 SE 13 22427 19401 10316 Blue 30
3 PM Thu 85 91 S 13 20794 17626 8541 Blue 28
4 PM Thu 84 88 SW 12 17876 15711 6626 Blue 25
5 PM Thu 81 84 W 13 15042 13221 4136 Blue 21
6 PM Thu 79 80 W 16 13020 12235 3150 Blue 17
7 PM Thu 75 75 W 21 11618 10084 999 Blue 12
8 PM Thu 71 71 W 24 9760 9085 0 Blue 8
9 PM Thu 67 67 W 25 8743 9085 0 Blue 4
10 PM Thu 63 63 W 25 8025 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 60 60 W 24 7773 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 58 58 W 22 7629 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 57 57 W 20 7557 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 56 56 NW 16 7484 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 55 55 NW 14 7412 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 53 53 NW 12 7280 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 53 53 NW 9 7280 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 55 55 NW 8 7412 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 59 59 NW 8 7701 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 64 65 N 9 8346 9085 0 Blue 2
9 AM Fri 70 73 N 10 10583 9378 293 Blue 10
10 AM Fri 76 81 NE 10 13267 12483 3398 Blue 18
11 AM Fri 81 88 NE 12 17876 15711 6626 Blue 25
12 Noon Fri 84 92 NE 12 21649 18505 9420 Blue 29
1 PM Fri 86 94 NE 10 23146 20387 11302 Blue 31
2 PM Fri 87 94 NE 10 23146 20387 11302 Blue 31
3 PM Fri 87 93 NE 9 22427 19401 10316 Blue 30
4 PM Fri 86 90 NE 8 19830 17021 7936 Blue 27
5 PM Fri 84 86 NE 8 16582 13799 4714 Blue 23
6 PM Fri 81 82 NE 8 13512 12730 3645 Blue 19
7 PM Fri 78 78 NE 8 12524 11560 2475 Blue 15
8 PM Fri 75 75 N 8 11618 10084 999 Blue 12
9 PM Fri 72 72 N 8 10115 9127 42 Blue 9
10 PM Fri 69 69 NW 8 9138 9085 0 Blue 6
11 PM Fri 65 65 NW 8 8346 9085 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sat 62 62 NW 8 7918 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 60 60 NW 8 7773 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 58 58 NW 9 7629 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 57 57 W 9 7557 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 57 57 W 9 7557 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 58 58 W 9 7629 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 61 61 NW 9 7846 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 64 64 N 9 8179 9085 0 Blue 1
8 AM Sat 69 70 N 9 9401 9085 0 Blue 7
9 AM Sat 73 76 NE 9 12022 10526 1441 Blue 13
10 AM Sat 77 82 E 9 13512 12730 3645 Blue 19
11 AM Sat 80 87 E 9 17220 14810 5725 Blue 24
12 Noon Sat 82 90 E 9 19830 17021 7936 Blue 27
1 PM Sat 84 92 E 9 21649 18505 9420 Blue 29
2 PM Sat 84 92 E 9 21649 18505 9420 Blue 29
3 PM Sat 84 90 E 9 19830 17021 7936 Blue 27
4 PM Sat 82 86 E 9 16582 13799 4714 Blue 23
5 PM Sat 81 84 E 9 15042 13221 4136 Blue 21
6 PM Sat 78 79 E 9 12772 11986 2901 Blue 16
7 PM Sat 76 76 NE 10 12022 10526 1441 Blue 13
8 PM Sat 73 73 NE 10 10583 9378 293 Blue 10
9 PM Sat 70 70 N 12 9401 9085 0 Blue 7
10 PM Sat 67 67 N 13 8743 9085 0 Blue 4
11 PM Sat 64 64 NW 13 8179 9085 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sun 61 61 NW 13 7846 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 59 59 NW 14 7701 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 57 57 NW 14 7557 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 56 56 NW 14 7484 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 56 56 NW 14 7484 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 57 57 NW 14 7557 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 60 60 N 13 7773 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 64 64 N 13 8179 9085 0 Blue 1
8 AM Sun 68 69 N 12 9138 9085 0 Blue 6
9 AM Sun 73 76 NE 10 12022 10526 1441 Blue 13
10 AM Sun 77 82 NE 9 13512 12730 3645 Blue 19
11 AM Sun 80 87 NE 9 17220 14810 5725 Blue 24
12 Noon Sun 83 91 NE 9 20794 17626 8541 Blue 28
1 PM Sun 84 92 E 10 21649 18505 9420 Blue 29
2 PM Sun 84 92 E 10 21649 18505 9420 Blue 29
3 PM Sun 83 89 E 12 18850 16388 7303 Blue 26
4 PM Sun 82 87 E 12 17220 14810 5725 Blue 24
5 PM Sun 81 84 SE 12 15042 13221 4136 Blue 21
6 PM Sun 79 80 SE 10 13020 12235 3150 Blue 17
7 PM Sun 76 76 S 9 12022 10526 1441 Blue 13
8 PM Sun 74 74 SW 8 11150 9733 648 Blue 11
9 PM Sun 71 71 SW 7 9760 9085 0 Blue 8
10 PM Sun 69 69 W 6 9138 9085 0 Blue 6
11 PM Sun 66 66 W 5 8545 9085 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Mon 63 63 W 3 8025 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 60 60 W 3 7773 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 58 58 W 3 7629 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 57 57 W 2 7557 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 57 57 W 3 7557 9085 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com