Detailed Predictions for: Horseshoe
Launch Altitude (f): 9085
LZ Altitude (f): 3640
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

22 FEB 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Thu 11 11 NW 12 4987 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 11 11 NW 14 4987 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 11 11 NW 16 4987 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 11 11 NW 18 4987 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 13 13 NW 18 4987 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 16 17 W 18 4987 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 26 27 W 20 8769 9085 0 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 28 30 W 23 9049 9085 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Thu 30 32 W 29 9407 9085 0 Blue 8
1 PM Thu 32 34 W 32 10261 9211 126 Blue 10
2 PM Thu 32 34 W 35 10261 9211 126 Blue 10
3 PM Thu 31 32 W 36 9407 9085 0 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 19 19 W 36 5208 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 18 18 W 36 4987 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 15 15 W 35 4987 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 14 14 W 32 4987 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 11 11 W 29 4987 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 11 11 W 24 4987 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 10 10 W 21 4987 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 10 10 W 16 4987 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 9 9 NW 14 4987 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 9 9 NW 12 4987 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 9 9 NW 13 4987 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 10 10 NW 14 4987 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 10 10 NW 16 4987 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 10 10 NW 17 4987 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 10 10 NW 18 4987 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 10 10 NW 20 4987 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 12 12 NW 21 4987 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 14 15 N 22 4987 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 24 26 N 23 8679 9085 0 Blue 2
11 AM Fri 26 28 N 23 8862 9085 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Fri 28 31 N 23 9223 9085 0 Blue 7
1 PM Fri 29 31 N 24 9223 9085 0 Blue 7
2 PM Fri 29 31 N 25 9223 9085 0 Blue 7
3 PM Fri 28 29 N 28 8955 9085 0 Blue 5
4 PM Fri 20 20 N 30 5991 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 18 18 N 32 4987 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 17 17 NW 33 4987 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 16 16 NW 33 4987 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 14 14 NW 32 4987 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 13 13 NW 30 4987 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 13 13 NW 28 4987 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 13 13 NW 24 4987 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 12 12 NW 21 4987 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 12 12 NW 17 4987 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 12 12 NW 15 4987 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 14 14 NW 14 4987 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 13 13 NW 13 4987 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 13 13 NW 12 4987 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 13 13 NW 12 4987 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 13 13 NW 10 4987 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 16 16 NW 8 4987 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 19 20 N 7 5991 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 33 35 N 6 10517 9394 309 Blue 11
11 AM Sat 35 38 N 5 11349 10491 1406 Blue 14
12 Noon Sat 38 41 NW 6 11812 11309 2224 Blue 17
1 PM Sat 40 43 NW 8 12330 11726 2641 Blue 19
2 PM Sat 40 42 NW 13 11993 11600 2515 Blue 18
3 PM Sat 39 40 NW 20 11737 11017 1932 Blue 16
4 PM Sat 29 29 NW 24 8955 9085 0 Blue 5
5 PM Sat 28 28 NW 26 8862 9085 0 Blue 4
6 PM Sat 25 25 NW 26 8589 9085 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sat 24 24 NW 25 8499 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 22 22 NW 23 7417 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 22 22 NW 21 7417 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 21 21 N 18 6724 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 21 21 N 17 6724 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 20 20 N 16 5991 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 20 20 N 15 5991 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 20 20 N 15 5991 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 21 21 NW 14 6724 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 21 21 NW 14 6724 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 21 21 N 13 6724 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 21 21 N 12 6724 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 21 21 N 10 6724 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 22 22 N 9 7417 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 24 25 N 9 8589 9085 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 31 33 N 8 9590 9085 0 Blue 9
11 AM Sun 33 36 NE 8 10763 9576 491 Blue 12
12 Noon Sun 34 37 NE 7 11054 10165 1080 Blue 13
1 PM Sun 35 38 E 7 11349 10491 1406 Blue 14
2 PM Sun 35 37 E 7 11054 10165 1080 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 34 35 SE 7 10517 9394 309 Blue 11
4 PM Sun 28 28 SE 7 8862 9085 0 Blue 4
5 PM Sun 28 28 SE 7 8862 9085 0 Blue 4
6 PM Sun 26 26 S 7 8679 9085 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 26 26 S 7 8679 9085 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sun 24 24 SW 7 8499 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 24 24 SW 8 8499 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 24 24 SW 8 8499 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 23 23 SW 8 8075 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 23 23 SW 9 8075 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 23 23 W 9 8075 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 23 23 W 9 8075 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 24 24 W 10 8499 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 24 24 W 10 8499 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 24 24 W 10 8499 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 24 24 W 10 8499 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 24 24 SW 10 8499 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 25 25 SW 10 8589 9085 0 Blue 1
9 AM Mon 26 27 SW 10 8769 9085 0 Blue 3
10 AM Mon 33 35 SW 10 10517 9394 309 Blue 11
11 AM Mon 34 37 SW 12 11054 10165 1080 Blue 13
12 Noon Mon 35 38 SW 13 11349 10491 1406 Blue 14
1 PM Mon 36 39 SW 14 11642 10735 1650 Blue 15
2 PM Mon 36 38 SW 15 11349 10491 1406 Blue 14
3 PM Mon 35 36 SW 16 10763 9576 491 Blue 12
4 PM Mon 28 28 SW 16 8862 9085 0 Blue 4
5 PM Mon 27 27 W 16 8769 9085 0 Blue 3
6 PM Mon 25 25 W 15 8589 9085 0 Blue 1
7 PM Mon 24 24 W 14 8499 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 22 22 W 13 7417 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 22 22 W 13 7417 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 22 22 W 12 7417 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 22 22 W 12 7417 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 21 21 W 13 6724 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 21 21 NW 13 6724 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 21 21 NW 14 6724 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 22 22 NW 15 7417 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 21 21 NW 15 6724 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 21 21 NW 15 6724 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 21 21 NW 15 6724 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 21 21 NW 14 6724 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 23 23 NW 14 8075 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 24 25 NW 13 8589 9085 0 Blue 1
10 AM Tue 28 29 NW 13 8955 9085 0 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 29 31 NW 13 9223 9085 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 30 32 NW 13 9407 9085 0 Blue 8
1 PM Tue 31 33 NW 13 9590 9085 0 Blue 9
2 PM Tue 31 32 NW 14 9407 9085 0 Blue 8
3 PM Tue 31 32 NW 14 9407 9085 0 Blue 8
4 PM Tue 25 25 NW 14 8589 9085 0 Blue 1
5 PM Tue 24 24 NW 14 8499 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 23 23 NW 14 8075 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 22 22 NW 14 7417 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 21 21 NW 14 6724 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 21 21 NW 14 6724 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 21 21 NW 14 6724 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 20 20 NW 14 5991 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 20 20 NW 14 5991 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 20 20 NW 14 5991 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 20 20 NW 14 5991 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 21 21 NW 13 6724 9085 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com