Detailed Predictions for: Horseshoe
Launch Altitude (f): 9085
LZ Altitude (f): 3640
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

24 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 61 61 SW 6 6391 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 63 63 SW 9 7811 9085 0 Blue 1
7 AM Sat 61 61 W 7 6391 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 67 67 SW 3 8338 9085 0 Blue 5
9 AM Sat 71 73 SE 5 9988 9085 0 Blue 11
10 AM Sat 72 76 SE 7 11290 9963 878 Blue 14
11 AM Sat 74 80 SE 9 12137 11573 2488 Blue 18
12 Noon Sat 76 83 SE 13 12615 12110 3025 Blue 21
1 PM Sat 78 85 SE 16 14881 12447 3362 Blue 23
2 PM Sat 79 85 SE 17 14881 12447 3362 Blue 23
3 PM Sat 79 84 SE 18 14188 12289 3204 Blue 22
4 PM Sat 79 83 SE 17 12615 12110 3025 Blue 21
5 PM Sat 78 80 S 16 12137 11573 2488 Blue 18
6 PM Sat 76 76 S 14 11290 9963 878 Blue 14
7 PM Sat 73 73 S 9 9988 9085 0 Blue 11
8 PM Sat 68 68 W 8 8554 9085 0 Blue 6
9 PM Sat 67 67 W 6 8338 9085 0 Blue 5
10 PM Sat 66 66 W 6 8145 9085 0 Blue 4
11 PM Sat 65 65 W 7 8033 9085 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sun 64 64 W 7 7922 9085 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sun 65 65 W 8 8033 9085 0 Blue 3
2 AM Sun 65 65 W 8 8033 9085 0 Blue 3
3 AM Sun 64 64 W 8 7922 9085 0 Blue 2
4 AM Sun 63 63 W 8 7811 9085 0 Blue 1
5 AM Sun 63 63 W 8 7811 9085 0 Blue 1
6 AM Sun 62 62 NW 7 7634 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 64 64 NW 6 7922 9085 0 Blue 2
8 AM Sun 69 69 N 6 8752 9085 0 Blue 7
9 AM Sun 71 73 N 6 9988 9085 0 Blue 11
10 AM Sun 73 77 E 7 11597 10266 1181 Blue 15
11 AM Sun 75 81 E 8 12317 11753 2668 Blue 19
12 Noon Sun 77 84 E 9 14188 12289 3204 Blue 22
1 PM Sun 79 86 SE 9 15537 12591 3506 Blue 24
2 PM Sun 80 87 SE 10 16162 14021 4936 Blue 25
3 PM Sun 81 86 SE 12 15537 12591 3506 Blue 24
4 PM Sun 81 85 SE 13 14881 12447 3362 Blue 23
5 PM Sun 79 81 SE 13 12317 11753 2668 Blue 19
6 PM Sun 76 76 SE 13 11290 9963 878 Blue 14
7 PM Sun 73 73 S 12 9988 9085 0 Blue 11
8 PM Sun 70 70 S 10 9058 9085 0 Blue 8
9 PM Sun 68 68 S 9 8554 9085 0 Blue 6
10 PM Sun 67 67 W 8 8338 9085 0 Blue 5
11 PM Sun 66 66 W 8 8145 9085 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Mon 66 66 W 8 8145 9085 0 Blue 4
1 AM Mon 66 66 W 9 8145 9085 0 Blue 4
2 AM Mon 65 65 W 9 8033 9085 0 Blue 3
3 AM Mon 64 64 W 9 7922 9085 0 Blue 2
4 AM Mon 63 63 NW 8 7811 9085 0 Blue 1
5 AM Mon 63 63 NW 8 7811 9085 0 Blue 1
6 AM Mon 65 65 NW 8 8033 9085 0 Blue 3
7 AM Mon 68 68 N 8 8554 9085 0 Blue 6
8 AM Mon 71 71 N 8 9371 9085 0 Blue 9
9 AM Mon 73 75 N 8 10786 9658 573 Blue 13
10 AM Mon 75 79 E 9 11958 11229 2144 Blue 17
11 AM Mon 76 81 E 9 12317 11753 2668 Blue 19
12 Noon Mon 78 84 E 10 14188 12289 3204 Blue 22
1 PM Mon 79 83 SE 10 12615 12110 3025 Blue 21
2 PM Mon 81 84 SE 12 14188 12289 3204 Blue 22
3 PM Mon 82 85 SE 12 14881 12447 3362 Blue 23
4 PM Mon 82 84 SE 13 14188 12289 3204 Blue 22
5 PM Mon 81 82 SE 13 12470 11932 2847 Blue 20
6 PM Mon 78 78 SE 13 11777 10732 1647 Blue 16
7 PM Mon 75 75 S 13 10786 9658 573 Blue 13
8 PM Mon 71 71 S 13 9371 9085 0 Blue 9
9 PM Mon 69 69 S 12 8752 9085 0 Blue 7
10 PM Mon 68 68 W 9 8554 9085 0 Blue 6
11 PM Mon 67 67 W 8 8338 9085 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Tue 67 67 W 8 8338 9085 0 Blue 5
1 AM Tue 67 67 W 8 8338 9085 0 Blue 5
2 AM Tue 66 66 W 8 8145 9085 0 Blue 4
3 AM Tue 65 65 W 8 8033 9085 0 Blue 3
4 AM Tue 64 64 W 8 7922 9085 0 Blue 2
5 AM Tue 64 64 W 8 7922 9085 0 Blue 2
6 AM Tue 66 66 NW 8 8145 9085 0 Blue 4
7 AM Tue 68 68 N 8 8554 9085 0 Blue 6
8 AM Tue 71 71 N 8 9371 9085 0 Blue 9
9 AM Tue 74 76 NE 9 11290 9963 878 Blue 14
10 AM Tue 76 80 E 9 12137 11573 2488 Blue 18
11 AM Tue 77 82 E 10 12470 11932 2847 Blue 20
12 Noon Tue 79 85 E 12 14881 12447 3362 Blue 23
1 PM Tue 80 88 SE 12 16764 14720 5635 Blue 26
2 PM Tue 81 88 SE 13 16764 14720 5635 Blue 26
3 PM Tue 82 88 SE 14 16764 14720 5635 Blue 26
4 PM Tue 82 85 SE 15 14881 12447 3362 Blue 23
5 PM Tue 80 82 SE 15 12470 11932 2847 Blue 20
6 PM Tue 78 78 SE 15 11777 10732 1647 Blue 16
7 PM Tue 75 75 S 14 10786 9658 573 Blue 13
8 PM Tue 72 72 S 13 9680 9085 0 Blue 10
9 PM Tue 69 69 SW 12 8752 9085 0 Blue 7
10 PM Tue 68 68 SW 9 8554 9085 0 Blue 6
11 PM Tue 67 67 W 8 8338 9085 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Wed 67 67 W 8 8338 9085 0 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 67 67 W 8 8338 9085 0 Blue 5
2 AM Wed 66 66 W 9 8145 9085 0 Blue 4
3 AM Wed 65 65 W 9 8033 9085 0 Blue 3
4 AM Wed 64 64 W 9 7922 9085 0 Blue 2
5 AM Wed 64 64 W 9 7922 9085 0 Blue 2
6 AM Wed 65 65 W 8 8033 9085 0 Blue 3
7 AM Wed 68 68 SW 8 8554 9085 0 Blue 6
8 AM Wed 71 71 SW 8 9371 9085 0 Blue 9
9 AM Wed 74 76 SW 9 11290 9963 878 Blue 14
10 AM Wed 76 80 S 10 12137 11573 2488 Blue 18
11 AM Wed 78 83 SE 13 12615 12110 3025 Blue 21
12 Noon Wed 79 86 SE 14 15537 12591 3506 Blue 24
1 PM Wed 81 88 SE 15 16764 14720 5635 Blue 26
2 PM Wed 81 87 SE 16 16162 14021 4936 Blue 25
3 PM Wed 82 87 S 17 16162 14021 4936 Blue 25
4 PM Wed 82 85 S 17 14881 12447 3362 Blue 23
5 PM Wed 80 82 S 17 12470 11932 2847 Blue 20
6 PM Wed 77 77 S 16 11597 10266 1181 Blue 15
7 PM Wed 73 73 SW 15 9988 9085 0 Blue 11
8 PM Wed 70 70 SW 14 9058 9085 0 Blue 8
9 PM Wed 68 68 SW 12 8554 9085 0 Blue 6
10 PM Wed 67 67 W 10 8338 9085 0 Blue 5
11 PM Wed 66 66 W 9 8145 9085 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Thu 66 66 W 9 8145 9085 0 Blue 4
1 AM Thu 66 66 W 10 8145 9085 0 Blue 4
2 AM Thu 65 65 W 10 8033 9085 0 Blue 3
3 AM Thu 64 64 W 10 7922 9085 0 Blue 2
4 AM Thu 63 63 W 9 7811 9085 0 Blue 1
5 AM Thu 63 63 W 9 7811 9085 0 Blue 1
6 AM Thu 64 64 W 8 7922 9085 0 Blue 2
7 AM Thu 67 67 W 8 8338 9085 0 Blue 5
8 AM Thu 70 70 W 8 9058 9085 0 Blue 8
9 AM Thu 72 74 SW 9 10294 9351 266 Blue 12
10 AM Thu 73 77 S 12 11597 10266 1181 Blue 15
11 AM Thu 75 81 SE 13 12317 11753 2668 Blue 19
12 Noon Thu 77 84 S 14 14188 12289 3204 Blue 22
1 PM Thu 78 85 S 14 14881 12447 3362 Blue 23
2 PM Thu 79 86 S 15 15537 12591 3506 Blue 24
3 PM Thu 80 86 S 16 15537 12591 3506 Blue 24
4 PM Thu 80 84 S 17 14188 12289 3204 Blue 22
5 PM Thu 78 80 S 17 12137 11573 2488 Blue 18
6 PM Thu 75 75 SW 16 10786 9658 573 Blue 13
7 PM Thu 72 72 SW 15 9680 9085 0 Blue 10
8 PM Thu 68 68 SW 13 8554 9085 0 Blue 6
9 PM Thu 67 67 W 10 8338 9085 0 Blue 5
10 PM Thu 66 66 W 9 8145 9085 0 Blue 4
11 PM Thu 65 65 W 8 8033 9085 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Fri 65 65 W 8 8033 9085 0 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 65 65 W 8 8033 9085 0 Blue 3
2 AM Fri 64 64 W 9 7922 9085 0 Blue 2
3 AM Fri 63 63 W 9 7811 9085 0 Blue 1
4 AM Fri 62 62 W 9 7634 9085 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com