Detailed Predictions for: Horseshoe
Launch Altitude (f): 9085
LZ Altitude (f): 3640
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 48 48 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 46 46 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 46 46 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 51 52 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 55 58 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 59 64 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 62 66 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 66 70 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 68 73 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 68 72 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 68 71 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 67 69 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 64 65 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 63 63 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 58 58 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 54 54 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 52 52 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 52 52 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 50 50 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 49 49 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 47 47 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 47 47 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 46 46 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 47 47 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 46 46 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 46 46 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 47 47 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 51 52 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 54 57 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 58 63 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 60 66 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 62 68 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 64 70 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 65 70 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 65 69 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 64 66 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 62 63 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 60 60 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 57 57 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 54 54 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 53 53 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 52 52 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 51 51 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 50 50 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 49 49 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 47 47 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 46 46 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 46 46 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 46 46 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 47 47 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 49 49 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 52 53 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 55 57 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 58 61 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 60 64 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 63 68 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 64 69 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 65 70 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 65 68 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 64 66 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 63 64 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 60 60 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 57 57 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 54 54 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 52 52 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 50 50 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 49 49 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 48 48 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 46 46 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 46 46 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 45 45 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 45 45 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 46 46 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 47 47 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 49 49 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 51 52 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 54 56 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 56 60 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 59 64 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 60 66 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 62 68 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 62 68 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 62 66 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 60 62 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 58 59 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 56 56 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 53 53 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 50 50 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 48 48 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 47 47 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 46 46 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 45 45 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 44 44 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 43 43 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 43 43 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 43 43 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 43 43 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 44 44 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 44 44 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 45 45 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 46 46 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 47 48 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 49 50 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 51 53 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 52 54 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 53 55 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 53 54 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 52 53 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 51 51 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 49 49 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 47 47 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 45 45 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 44 44 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 43 43 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 42 42 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 42 42 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 42 42 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 41 41 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 41 41 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 40 40 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 40 40 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 40 40 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 42 42 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 43 44 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 46 48 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 49 53 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 52 58 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 53 60 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 55 62 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 55 61 SW 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 55 60 SW 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 54 57 W 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 52 54 W 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 49 49 W 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 46 46 W 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 44 44 W 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 42 42 W 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 41 41 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 40 40 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 40 40 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 39 39 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 38 38 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 38 38 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 37 37 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com