Detailed Predictions for: Horseshoe
Launch Altitude (f): 9085
LZ Altitude (f): 3640
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

4 DEC 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 34 34 NW 7 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 33 33 NW 8 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 34 34 NW 8 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 35 35 NW 8 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 39 39 NW 7 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 43 43 N 6 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 46 47 NE 5 7327 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 47 49 NE 5 8624 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 48 50 NE 6 9232 9085 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 49 51 NE 7 9605 9085 0 Blue 1
2 PM Fri 48 49 NE 5 8624 9085 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 48 48 NE 3 7990 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 44 44 N 3 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 39 39 N 3 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 38 38 N 3 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 37 37 NW 3 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 37 37 NW 3 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 37 37 NW 3 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 37 37 NW 3 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 36 36 NW 5 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 36 36 W 6 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 36 36 W 6 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 35 35 W 6 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 34 34 W 6 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 34 34 W 6 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 33 33 W 6 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 34 34 W 6 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 34 34 W 7 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 40 40 SW 7 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 43 43 S 7 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 45 46 SE 7 6631 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 46 48 SE 8 7990 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 47 49 E 9 8624 9085 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 48 49 E 10 8624 9085 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 47 48 SE 9 7990 9085 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 45 45 SE 8 5895 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 42 42 SE 7 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 39 39 S 6 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 36 36 W 6 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 34 34 W 6 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 33 33 W 6 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 34 34 W 7 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 34 34 W 8 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 34 34 W 8 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 33 33 W 9 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 33 33 W 9 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 33 33 W 9 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 33 33 NW 10 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 33 33 NW 10 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 32 32 NW 10 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 32 32 NW 10 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 33 33 NW 10 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 35 35 NW 10 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 38 38 N 10 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 41 42 N 10 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 44 45 N 10 5895 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 45 46 NE 12 6631 9085 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 45 46 NE 12 6631 9085 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 44 44 NE 10 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 42 42 NE 9 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 39 39 NE 9 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 36 36 N 10 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 33 33 N 12 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 32 32 N 13 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 31 31 N 14 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 31 31 N 16 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 32 32 N 17 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 32 32 N 18 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 31 31 N 20 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 32 32 N 20 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 32 32 N 20 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 32 32 N 21 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 33 33 N 21 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 33 33 N 21 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 32 32 N 21 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 33 33 N 21 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 34 34 N 21 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 36 36 N 20 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 38 39 N 20 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 41 42 N 20 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 43 44 N 20 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 44 45 N 20 5895 9085 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 44 45 N 20 5895 9085 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 43 43 N 18 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 41 41 N 18 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 39 39 N 17 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 37 37 N 17 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 36 36 N 17 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 35 35 N 16 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 35 35 N 14 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 36 36 N 13 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 36 36 N 15 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 36 36 N 16 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 37 37 N 17 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 36 36 N 17 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 36 36 N 17 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 36 36 N 16 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 35 35 N 15 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 35 35 N 15 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 37 37 N 15 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 39 39 N 14 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 43 43 N 13 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 46 47 N 13 7327 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 48 50 N 13 9232 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 50 52 N 13 9828 9085 0 Blue 2
1 PM Tue 50 51 N 13 9605 9085 0 Blue 1
2 PM Tue 49 50 N 12 9232 9085 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 48 48 N 10 7990 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 45 45 N 9 5895 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 42 42 N 8 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 39 39 N 8 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 37 37 N 7 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 36 36 N 7 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 36 36 NW 8 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 36 36 NW 8 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 36 36 NW 8 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 35 35 NW 8 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 35 35 NW 8 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 35 35 NW 9 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 36 36 NW 9 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 36 36 NW 10 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 36 36 NW 10 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 35 35 NW 10 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 36 36 NW 9 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 39 39 NW 8 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 43 43 N 8 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 47 48 N 8 7990 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 50 51 NE 8 9605 9085 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 51 53 E 8 10051 9197 112 Blue 3
1 PM Wed 51 52 SE 8 9828 9085 0 Blue 2
2 PM Wed 51 52 SE 8 9828 9085 0 Blue 2
3 PM Wed 50 50 S 8 9232 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 47 47 SW 7 7327 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 44 44 W 6 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 41 41 W 6 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 38 38 W 6 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 37 37 W 7 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 37 37 W 8 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 37 37 W 9 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 37 37 W 10 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 37 37 NW 10 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 37 37 NW 10 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 37 37 NW 10 5200 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 36 36 NW 12 5200 9085 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com