Detailed Predictions for: Horseshoe
Launch Altitude (f): 9085
LZ Altitude (f): 3640
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 44 44 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 44 44 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 45 45 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 48 49 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 53 55 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 58 62 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 63 68 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 66 72 SE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 67 73 SE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 67 72 SE 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 65 69 SE 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 63 65 S 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 60 61 S 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 57 57 S 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 54 54 S 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 52 52 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 50 50 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 48 48 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 47 47 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 46 46 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 46 46 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 45 45 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 44 44 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 43 43 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 42 42 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 42 42 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 44 44 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 47 48 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 51 54 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 56 60 S 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 60 66 S 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 63 70 S 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 64 71 S 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 64 71 S 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 63 68 SW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 60 63 SW 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 57 59 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 53 53 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 49 49 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 46 46 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 44 44 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 42 42 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 41 41 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 40 40 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 39 39 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 37 37 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 37 37 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 37 37 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 36 36 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 36 36 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 36 36 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 39 40 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 43 45 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 49 53 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 54 59 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 57 63 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 58 64 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 57 62 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 56 60 SW 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 53 56 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 50 51 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 46 46 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 43 43 W 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 40 40 W 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 38 38 W 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 38 38 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 37 37 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 36 36 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 35 35 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 34 34 NW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 33 33 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 32 32 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 33 33 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 35 35 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 39 39 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 43 44 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 48 50 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 53 57 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 56 61 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 59 65 S 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 60 66 S 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 60 66 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 59 63 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 58 61 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 56 57 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 53 53 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 50 50 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 48 48 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 45 45 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 42 42 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 39 39 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 37 37 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 35 35 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 34 34 NW 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 34 34 NW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 34 34 NW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 36 36 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 39 39 NW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 42 42 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 45 45 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 49 51 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 52 55 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 55 59 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 56 61 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 57 62 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 57 61 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 56 59 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 54 56 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 52 53 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 50 50 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 48 48 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 46 46 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 43 43 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 41 41 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 38 38 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 36 36 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 34 34 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 33 33 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 32 32 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 32 32 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 33 33 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 36 36 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 39 39 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 42 42 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 46 47 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 49 51 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 51 54 NE 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 53 57 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 53 57 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 53 57 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 51 54 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 50 52 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 49 50 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 48 48 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 46 46 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 45 45 NW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 44 44 NW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 42 42 NW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 41 41 NW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 39 39 NW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 37 37 NW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 35 35 NW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 34 34 NW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 34 34 NW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com