Detailed Predictions for: La Cumbre Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 3960
LZ Altitude (f): 695
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

11 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Mon 58 58 NE 6 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 58 58 NE 6 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 61 61 NE 6 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 58 58 E 6 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 61 61 E 6 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 66 66 E 6 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 70 72 S 6 3728 3960 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 71 74 S 6 4275 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 71 74 S 6 4275 3960 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 70 73 SW 5 4002 3960 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 71 73 SW 5 4002 3960 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 70 71 SW 5 3453 3960 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 70 70 W 5 3176 3960 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 66 66 W 5 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 66 66 W 5 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 65 65 SW 5 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 64 64 SW 5 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 63 63 SW 5 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 63 63 NE 7 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 62 62 NE 7 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 62 62 NE 7 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 62 62 E 8 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 62 62 E 8 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 61 61 E 8 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 61 61 E 8 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 61 61 E 8 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 62 62 E 8 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 61 61 E 8 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 65 65 E 8 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 71 72 E 8 3728 3960 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 76 78 S 8 6041 4535 575 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 78 81 S 8 7974 5981 2021 Blue 4
12 Noon Tue 78 81 S 8 7974 5981 2021 Blue 4
1 PM Tue 77 80 S 8 7358 5284 1324 Blue 3
2 PM Tue 77 79 S 8 6715 4802 842 Blue 2
3 PM Tue 77 78 S 8 6041 4535 575 Blue 1
4 PM Tue 75 75 SW 5 4546 3960 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 69 69 SW 5 2897 3960 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 69 69 SW 5 2897 3960 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 67 67 SW 5 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 66 66 SW 5 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 64 64 SW 5 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 64 64 SW 3 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 63 63 SW 3 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 62 62 SW 3 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 62 62 SW 3 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 62 62 SW 3 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 60 60 SW 3 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 60 60 NE 3 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 60 60 NE 3 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 62 62 NE 3 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 60 60 NE 3 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 63 63 NE 3 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 69 69 NE 3 2897 3960 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 73 74 SW 7 4275 3960 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 75 76 SW 7 4815 3996 36 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 75 76 SW 7 4815 3996 36 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 74 75 SW 7 4546 3960 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 74 75 SW 7 4546 3960 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 74 74 SW 7 4275 3960 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 72 72 SW 6 3728 3960 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 65 65 SW 6 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 64 64 SW 6 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 63 63 SW 6 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 61 61 SW 6 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 60 60 SW 6 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 59 59 W 6 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 58 58 W 6 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 57 57 W 6 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 57 57 W 6 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 57 57 W 6 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 55 55 W 6 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 56 56 W 5 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 55 55 W 5 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 57 57 W 5 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 55 55 W 5 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 58 58 W 5 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 63 63 W 5 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 67 68 SW 7 2617 3960 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 69 70 SW 7 3176 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 69 70 SW 7 3176 3960 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 68 69 SW 7 2897 3960 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 69 70 SW 7 3176 3960 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 68 68 SW 7 2617 3960 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 67 67 SW 7 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 61 61 SW 7 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 61 61 SW 7 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 59 59 SW 7 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 58 58 SW 7 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 57 57 SW 7 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 56 56 NE 5 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 55 55 NE 5 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 54 54 NE 5 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 55 55 NE 5 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 54 54 NE 5 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 53 53 NE 5 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 53 53 N 5 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 53 53 N 5 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 55 55 N 5 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 53 53 N 5 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 55 55 N 5 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 59 59 N 5 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 62 64 W 9 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 63 66 W 9 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 63 66 W 9 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 62 65 W 9 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 63 65 W 9 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 63 64 W 9 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 62 62 NW 8 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 58 58 NW 8 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 58 58 NW 8 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 58 58 NW 8 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 57 57 NW 8 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 56 56 NW 8 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 56 56 N 8 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 55 55 N 8 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 55 55 N 8 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 55 55 N 8 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 55 55 N 8 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 54 54 N 8 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 54 54 N 8 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 54 54 N 8 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 55 55 N 8 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 54 54 N 8 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 57 57 N 8 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 62 63 N 8 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 66 68 N 7 2617 3960 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 68 71 N 7 3453 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 68 71 N 7 3453 3960 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 67 70 N 7 3176 3960 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 68 70 N 7 3176 3960 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 67 68 N 7 2617 3960 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 66 66 N 6 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 62 62 N 6 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 62 62 N 6 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 61 61 N 6 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 60 60 N 6 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 60 60 N 6 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 59 59 N 6 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 59 59 N 6 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 58 58 N 6 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 58 58 N 6 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 58 58 N 6 2559 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 57 57 N 6 2559 3960 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com