Detailed Predictions for: La Cumbre Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 3960
LZ Altitude (f): 695
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Tue 54 54 SE 6 2874 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 55 55 SE 6 2874 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 55 55 SE 6 2874 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 55 55 SE 3 2874 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 55 55 SE 3 2874 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 58 59 SE 3 3210 3960 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 60 61 N 3 3860 3960 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 62 64 N 3 4815 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 64 66 N 3 5416 4486 526 Blue 1
1 PM Tue 64 66 W 5 5416 4486 526 Blue 1
2 PM Tue 65 66 W 5 5416 4486 526 Blue 1
3 PM Tue 65 65 W 5 5128 4171 211 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 64 64 NW 6 4815 3960 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 62 62 NW 6 4181 3960 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 61 61 NW 6 3860 3960 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 60 60 N 6 3537 3960 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 59 59 N 6 3210 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 59 59 N 6 3210 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 59 59 E 5 3210 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 58 58 E 5 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 59 59 E 5 3210 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 57 57 E 5 2874 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 57 57 E 5 2874 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 57 57 E 5 2874 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 56 56 SE 3 2874 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 57 57 SE 3 2874 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 57 57 SE 3 2874 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 57 57 SE 3 2874 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 57 57 SE 3 2874 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 60 61 SE 3 3860 3960 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 63 65 NE 3 5128 4171 211 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 66 68 NE 3 5995 5109 1149 Blue 3
12 Noon Wed 68 70 NE 3 6567 5684 1724 Blue 5
1 PM Wed 68 70 W 6 6567 5684 1724 Blue 5
2 PM Wed 69 70 W 6 6567 5684 1724 Blue 5
3 PM Wed 69 69 W 6 6282 5396 1436 Blue 4
4 PM Wed 68 68 NW 8 5995 5109 1149 Blue 3
5 PM Wed 66 66 NW 8 5416 4486 526 Blue 1
6 PM Wed 65 65 NW 8 5128 4171 211 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 64 64 NW 8 4815 3960 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 63 63 NW 8 4499 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 63 63 NW 8 4499 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 63 63 E 5 4499 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 62 62 E 5 4181 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 63 63 E 5 4499 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 61 61 E 5 3860 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 61 61 E 5 3860 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 61 61 E 5 3860 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 60 60 SE 3 3537 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 61 61 SE 3 3860 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 61 61 SE 3 3860 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 61 61 SE 3 3860 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 61 61 SE 3 3860 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 63 64 SE 3 4815 3960 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 65 67 S 3 5707 4799 839 Blue 2
11 AM Thu 68 70 S 3 6567 5684 1724 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 69 72 S 3 7184 6255 2295 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 69 71 S 3 6857 5970 2010 Blue 6
2 PM Thu 70 72 S 3 7184 6255 2295 Blue 7
3 PM Thu 70 71 S 3 6857 5970 2010 Blue 6
4 PM Thu 69 69 NW 6 6282 5396 1436 Blue 4
5 PM Thu 67 67 NW 6 5707 4799 839 Blue 2
6 PM Thu 65 65 NW 6 5128 4171 211 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 64 64 NW 6 4815 3960 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 63 63 NW 6 4499 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 63 63 NW 6 4499 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 62 62 E 5 4181 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 62 62 E 5 4181 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 62 62 E 5 4181 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 60 60 E 5 3537 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 61 61 E 5 3860 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 60 60 E 5 3537 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 59 59 NE 6 3210 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 60 60 NE 6 3537 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 60 60 NE 6 3537 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 60 60 NE 6 3537 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 60 60 NE 6 3537 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 62 63 NE 6 4499 3960 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 64 65 SW 5 5128 4171 211 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 66 68 SW 5 5995 5109 1149 Blue 3
12 Noon Fri 67 69 SW 5 6282 5396 1436 Blue 4
1 PM Fri 67 69 SW 5 6282 5396 1436 Blue 4
2 PM Fri 68 69 SW 5 6282 5396 1436 Blue 4
3 PM Fri 68 68 SW 5 5995 5109 1149 Blue 3
4 PM Fri 67 67 W 5 5707 4799 839 Blue 2
5 PM Fri 65 65 W 5 5128 4171 211 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 64 64 W 5 4815 3960 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 63 63 W 5 4499 3960 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 61 61 W 5 3860 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 61 61 W 5 3860 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 61 61 E 5 3860 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 61 61 E 5 3860 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 61 61 E 5 3860 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 59 59 E 5 3210 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 59 59 E 5 3210 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 59 59 E 5 3210 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 58 58 E 6 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 59 59 E 6 3210 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 59 59 E 6 3210 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 59 59 E 6 3210 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 59 59 E 6 3210 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 60 61 E 6 3860 3960 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 61 62 SW 6 4181 3960 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 63 65 SW 6 5128 4171 211 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 63 65 SW 6 5128 4171 211 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 64 66 SW 6 5416 4486 526 Blue 1
2 PM Sat 64 65 SW 6 5128 4171 211 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 64 64 SW 6 4815 3960 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 63 63 SW 7 4499 3960 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 62 62 SW 7 4181 3960 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 61 61 SW 7 3860 3960 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 60 60 SW 7 3537 3960 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 59 59 SW 7 3210 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 59 59 SW 7 3210 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 58 58 E 6 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 58 58 E 6 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 58 58 E 6 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 57 57 E 6 2874 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 57 57 E 6 2874 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 57 57 E 6 2874 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 56 56 SE 6 2874 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 57 57 SE 6 2874 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 57 57 SE 6 2874 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 57 57 SE 6 2874 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 57 57 SE 6 2874 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 58 59 SE 6 3210 3960 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 59 60 S 6 3537 3960 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 61 63 S 6 4499 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 61 63 S 6 4499 3960 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 62 64 S 6 4815 3960 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 62 63 S 6 4499 3960 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 62 62 S 6 4181 3960 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 61 61 S 6 3860 3960 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 60 60 S 6 3537 3960 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 60 60 S 6 3537 3960 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 59 59 S 6 3210 3960 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 58 58 S 6 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 58 58 S 6 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 58 58 NE 7 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 58 58 NE 7 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 58 58 NE 7 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 57 57 NE 7 2874 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 57 57 NE 7 2874 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 57 57 NE 7 2874 3960 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com