Detailed Predictions for: La Cumbre Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 3960
LZ Altitude (f): 695
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

16 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 78 78 N 16 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 77 77 N 16 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 79 79 N 16 3044 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 83 84 N 12 4440 3960 0 Blue 2
9 AM Tue 84 87 N 12 5845 4425 465 Blue 5
10 AM Tue 86 91 N 12 7794 6302 2342 Blue 9
11 AM Tue 87 93 S 7 8996 7264 3304 Blue 11
12 Noon Tue 89 97 S 7 11540 9982 6022 Blue 15
1 PM Tue 89 97 S 7 11540 9982 6022 Blue 15
2 PM Tue 91 99 W 14 11883 11324 7364 Blue 17
3 PM Tue 90 97 W 14 11540 9982 6022 Blue 15
4 PM Tue 90 95 W 14 11197 8184 4224 Blue 13
5 PM Tue 86 89 W 16 6842 5293 1333 Blue 7
6 PM Tue 86 87 W 16 5845 4425 465 Blue 5
7 PM Tue 82 82 W 16 3644 3960 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 77 77 NW 20 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 77 77 NW 20 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 77 77 NW 20 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 74 74 N 12 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 75 75 N 12 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 73 73 N 12 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 66 66 NE 12 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 66 66 NE 12 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 65 65 NE 12 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 65 65 N 3 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 63 63 N 3 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 65 65 N 3 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 69 70 W 5 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 70 73 W 5 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 72 77 W 5 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 73 79 SW 7 3044 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 75 83 SW 7 4027 3960 0 Blue 1
1 PM Wed 75 83 SW 7 4027 3960 0 Blue 1
2 PM Wed 77 85 SW 8 4847 3960 0 Blue 3
3 PM Wed 76 83 SW 8 4027 3960 0 Blue 1
4 PM Wed 76 81 SW 8 3445 3960 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 74 77 SW 7 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 74 75 SW 7 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 71 71 SW 7 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 69 69 S 3 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 69 69 S 3 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 68 68 S 3 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 67 67 SE 5 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 67 67 SE 5 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 66 66 SE 5 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 62 62 E 5 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 62 62 E 5 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 61 61 E 5 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 61 61 SE 6 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 60 60 SE 6 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 62 62 SE 6 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 66 67 S 6 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 67 69 S 6 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 69 73 S 6 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 70 76 S 8 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 72 80 S 8 3244 3960 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 72 80 S 8 3244 3960 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 74 82 S 12 3644 3960 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 73 80 S 12 3244 3960 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 73 78 S 12 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 71 74 S 10 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 71 72 S 10 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 69 69 S 10 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 67 67 S 10 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 67 67 S 10 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 66 66 S 10 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 65 65 SE 6 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 65 65 SE 6 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 65 65 SE 6 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 61 61 SE 6 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 60 60 SE 6 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 60 60 SE 6 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 60 60 S 3 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 59 59 S 3 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 61 61 S 3 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 66 67 S 3 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 66 68 S 3 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 68 72 S 3 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 70 76 SW 12 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 71 79 SW 12 3044 3960 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 72 80 SW 12 3244 3960 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 74 82 SW 12 3644 3960 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 73 80 SW 12 3244 3960 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 73 78 SW 12 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 71 74 SW 10 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 71 72 SW 10 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 69 69 SW 10 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 67 67 SW 10 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 67 67 SW 10 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 66 66 SW 10 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 65 65 W 8 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 65 65 W 8 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 65 65 W 8 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 61 61 W 8 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 60 60 W 8 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 60 60 W 8 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 60 60 S 5 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 59 59 S 5 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 61 61 S 5 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 66 67 S 5 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 67 69 S 5 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 69 73 S 5 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 71 77 SW 13 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 72 80 SW 13 3244 3960 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 73 81 SW 13 3445 3960 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 75 83 SW 13 4027 3960 0 Blue 1
3 PM Sat 74 81 SW 13 3445 3960 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 74 79 SW 13 3044 3960 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 72 75 SW 13 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 72 73 SW 13 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 70 70 SW 13 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 68 68 SW 13 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 68 68 SW 13 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 67 67 SW 13 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 66 66 N 5 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 66 66 N 5 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 66 66 N 5 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 62 62 N 5 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 61 61 N 5 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 61 61 N 5 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 61 61 S 3 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 60 60 S 3 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 63 63 S 3 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 70 71 S 3 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 71 73 S 3 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 74 78 S 3 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 77 83 W 13 4027 3960 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sun 79 87 W 13 5845 4425 465 Blue 5
1 PM Sun 80 88 W 13 6350 4827 867 Blue 6
2 PM Sun 83 91 W 13 7794 6302 2342 Blue 9
3 PM Sun 82 89 W 13 6842 5293 1333 Blue 7
4 PM Sun 82 87 W 13 5845 4425 465 Blue 5
5 PM Sun 79 82 SW 12 3644 3960 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 79 80 SW 12 3244 3960 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 76 76 SW 12 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 72 72 SW 12 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 72 72 SW 12 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 72 72 SW 12 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 70 70 N 5 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 70 70 N 5 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 69 69 N 5 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 64 64 N 5 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 63 63 N 5 2881 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 63 63 N 5 2881 3960 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com