Detailed Predictions for: La Cumbre Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 3960
LZ Altitude (f): 695
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

26 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 47 47 SW 5 5024 4534 574 White 3
6 AM Sun 47 47 SW 5 5024 4534 574 White 3
7 AM Sun 47 47 SW 5 5024 4534 574 White 3
8 AM Sun 47 47 SW 5 5024 4534 574 White 3
9 AM Sun 47 47 SW 5 5024 4534 574 White 3
10 AM Sun 47 47 SW 5 5024 4534 574 White 3
11 AM Sun 47 47 SW 15 5024 4534 574 White 3
12 Noon Sun 47 48 SW 15 5243 4990 1030 White 4
1 PM Sun 47 48 SW 15 5243 4990 1030 White 4
2 PM Sun 47 48 W 15 5243 4990 1030 White 4
3 PM Sun 47 47 W 15 5024 4534 574 White 3
4 PM Sun 46 46 W 15 4805 4158 198 White 2
5 PM Sun 45 46 N 24 4805 4158 198 White 2
6 PM Sun 44 44 N 24 4363 3960 0 White 0
7 PM Sun 43 43 N 24 4139 3960 0 White 0
8 PM Sun 42 42 N 23 3783 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 41 41 N 23 3392 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 40 40 N 23 2996 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 39 39 N 24 2594 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 39 39 N 24 2594 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 39 39 N 24 2594 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 39 39 N 13 2594 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 39 39 N 13 2594 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 39 39 N 13 2594 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 38 38 N 13 2408 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 38 38 N 13 2408 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 39 39 N 13 2594 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 40 41 N 13 3392 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 44 46 N 13 4805 4158 198 White 2
10 AM Mon 48 52 N 13 6113 6113 2153 White 8
11 AM Mon 49 54 NW 10 6546 6280 2320 White 10
12 Noon Mon 52 58 NW 10 7250 6713 2753 Blue 14
1 PM Mon 54 60 NW 10 7522 7049 3089 Blue 16
2 PM Mon 57 63 N 12 7977 7503 3543 Blue 19
3 PM Mon 57 62 N 12 7813 7370 3410 Blue 18
4 PM Mon 56 59 N 12 7388 6872 2912 Blue 15
5 PM Mon 54 56 N 12 6894 6407 2447 Blue 12
6 PM Mon 53 53 N 12 6330 6222 2262 White 9
7 PM Mon 52 52 N 12 6113 6113 2153 White 8
8 PM Mon 51 51 N 12 5896 5344 1384 White 7
9 PM Mon 50 50 N 12 5679 5226 1266 White 6
10 PM Mon 49 49 N 12 5462 5108 1148 White 5
11 PM Mon 48 48 N 10 5243 4990 1030 White 4
12 Midnight Tue 48 48 N 10 5243 4990 1030 White 4
1 AM Tue 47 47 N 10 5024 4534 574 White 3
2 AM Tue 48 48 N 10 5243 4990 1030 White 4
3 AM Tue 47 47 N 10 5024 4534 574 White 3
4 AM Tue 47 47 N 10 5024 4534 574 White 3
5 AM Tue 46 46 N 10 4805 4158 198 White 2
6 AM Tue 46 46 N 10 4805 4158 198 White 2
7 AM Tue 47 47 N 10 5024 4534 574 White 3
8 AM Tue 48 49 N 10 5462 5108 1148 White 5
9 AM Tue 52 54 N 10 6546 6280 2320 White 10
10 AM Tue 55 59 N 10 7388 6872 2912 Blue 15
11 AM Tue 57 63 NW 12 7977 7503 3543 Blue 19
12 Noon Tue 59 67 NW 12 8635 8114 4154 Blue 23
1 PM Tue 61 69 NW 12 9232 8439 4479 Blue 25
2 PM Tue 64 71 NW 12 10211 8777 4817 White 26
3 PM Tue 64 70 NW 12 9742 8603 4643 Blue 25
4 PM Tue 63 67 NW 12 8635 8114 4154 Blue 23
5 PM Tue 61 63 NW 12 7977 7503 3543 Blue 19
6 PM Tue 60 61 NW 12 7655 7226 3266 Blue 17
7 PM Tue 59 59 NW 12 7388 6872 2912 Blue 15
8 PM Tue 58 58 NW 12 7250 6713 2753 Blue 14
9 PM Tue 57 57 NW 12 7072 6567 2607 Blue 13
10 PM Tue 56 56 NW 12 6894 6407 2447 Blue 12
11 PM Tue 55 55 NE 6 6730 6339 2379 Blue 11
12 Midnight Wed 55 55 NE 6 6730 6339 2379 Blue 11
1 AM Wed 54 54 NE 6 6546 6280 2320 White 10
2 AM Wed 55 55 NE 6 6730 6339 2379 Blue 11
3 AM Wed 54 54 NE 6 6546 6280 2320 White 10
4 AM Wed 54 54 NE 6 6546 6280 2320 White 10
5 AM Wed 53 53 NE 6 6330 6222 2262 White 9
6 AM Wed 53 53 NE 6 6330 6222 2262 White 9
7 AM Wed 54 54 NE 6 6546 6280 2320 White 10
8 AM Wed 55 56 NE 6 6894 6407 2447 Blue 12
9 AM Wed 58 61 NE 6 7655 7226 3266 Blue 17
10 AM Wed 61 66 NE 6 8468 7951 3991 Blue 22
11 AM Wed 62 68 SW 8 8809 8277 4317 Blue 24
12 Noon Wed 64 72 SW 8 10421 9129 5169 White 27
1 PM Wed 66 74 SW 8 10837 10189 6229 White 29
2 PM Wed 68 75 SW 8 11045 10445 6485 White 30
3 PM Wed 68 74 SW 8 10837 10189 6229 White 29
4 PM Wed 67 71 SW 8 10211 8777 4817 White 26
5 PM Wed 65 67 SW 8 8635 8114 4154 Blue 23
6 PM Wed 64 65 SW 8 8304 7788 3828 Blue 21
7 PM Wed 63 63 SW 8 7977 7503 3543 Blue 19
8 PM Wed 61 61 SW 8 7655 7226 3266 Blue 17
9 PM Wed 60 60 SW 8 7522 7049 3089 Blue 16
10 PM Wed 59 59 SW 8 7388 6872 2912 Blue 15
11 PM Wed 58 58 N 6 7250 6713 2753 Blue 14
12 Midnight Thu 58 58 N 6 7250 6713 2753 Blue 14
1 AM Thu 57 57 N 6 7072 6567 2607 Blue 13
2 AM Thu 58 58 N 6 7250 6713 2753 Blue 14
3 AM Thu 57 57 N 6 7072 6567 2607 Blue 13
4 AM Thu 57 57 N 6 7072 6567 2607 Blue 13
5 AM Thu 56 56 N 6 6894 6407 2447 Blue 12
6 AM Thu 56 56 N 6 6894 6407 2447 Blue 12
7 AM Thu 57 57 N 6 7072 6567 2607 Blue 13
8 AM Thu 57 58 N 6 7250 6713 2753 Blue 14
9 AM Thu 59 61 N 6 7655 7226 3266 Blue 17
10 AM Thu 62 66 N 6 8468 7951 3991 Blue 22
11 AM Thu 63 68 W 9 8809 8277 4317 Blue 24
12 Noon Thu 64 70 W 9 9742 8603 4643 Blue 25
1 PM Thu 65 71 W 9 10211 8777 4817 White 26
2 PM Thu 67 73 W 9 10629 9630 5670 White 28
3 PM Thu 67 72 W 9 10421 9129 5169 White 27
4 PM Thu 66 69 W 9 9232 8439 4479 Blue 25
5 PM Thu 64 66 W 9 8468 7951 3991 Blue 22
6 PM Thu 63 63 W 9 7977 7503 3543 Blue 19
7 PM Thu 62 62 W 9 7813 7370 3410 Blue 18
8 PM Thu 60 60 W 9 7522 7049 3089 Blue 16
9 PM Thu 59 59 W 9 7388 6872 2912 Blue 15
10 PM Thu 58 58 W 9 7250 6713 2753 Blue 14
11 PM Thu 57 57 N 9 7072 6567 2607 Blue 13
12 Midnight Fri 57 57 N 9 7072 6567 2607 Blue 13
1 AM Fri 56 56 N 9 6894 6407 2447 Blue 12
2 AM Fri 57 57 N 9 7072 6567 2607 Blue 13
3 AM Fri 56 56 N 9 6894 6407 2447 Blue 12
4 AM Fri 56 56 N 9 6894 6407 2447 Blue 12
5 AM Fri 55 55 N 9 6730 6339 2379 Blue 11
6 AM Fri 55 55 N 9 6730 6339 2379 Blue 11
7 AM Fri 56 56 N 9 6894 6407 2447 Blue 12
8 AM Fri 56 57 N 9 7072 6567 2607 Blue 13
9 AM Fri 58 60 N 9 7522 7049 3089 Blue 16
10 AM Fri 61 65 N 9 8304 7788 3828 Blue 21
11 AM Fri 62 68 W 9 8809 8277 4317 Blue 24
12 Noon Fri 63 70 W 9 9742 8603 4643 Blue 25
1 PM Fri 64 71 W 9 10211 8777 4817 White 26
2 PM Fri 66 73 W 9 10629 9630 5670 White 28
3 PM Fri 66 72 W 9 10421 9129 5169 White 27
4 PM Fri 65 69 W 9 9232 8439 4479 Blue 25
5 PM Fri 63 65 W 9 8304 7788 3828 Blue 21
6 PM Fri 62 63 W 9 7977 7503 3543 Blue 19
7 PM Fri 61 61 W 9 7655 7226 3266 Blue 17
8 PM Fri 60 60 W 9 7522 7049 3089 Blue 16
9 PM Fri 59 59 W 9 7388 6872 2912 Blue 15
10 PM Fri 58 58 W 9 7250 6713 2753 Blue 14
11 PM Fri 57 57 N 7 7072 6567 2607 Blue 13
12 Midnight Sat 57 57 N 7 7072 6567 2607 Blue 13
1 AM Sat 56 56 N 7 6894 6407 2447 Blue 12
2 AM Sat 57 57 N 7 7072 6567 2607 Blue 13
3 AM Sat 56 56 N 7 6894 6407 2447 Blue 12
4 AM Sat 56 56 N 7 6894 6407 2447 Blue 12

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com