Detailed Predictions for: La Cumbre Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 3960
LZ Altitude (f): 695
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

17 SEP 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 59 59 NE 9 3117 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 57 57 NE 9 2539 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 58 58 NE 9 2539 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 60 60 NE 9 3921 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 63 64 NE 9 5372 4642 682 Blue 3
10 AM Tue 66 68 NE 9 5585 5403 1443 Blue 7
11 AM Tue 70 74 S 6 7173 6677 2717 Blue 13
12 Noon Tue 72 77 S 6 7649 7153 3193 Blue 15
1 PM Tue 73 79 S 6 8083 7469 3509 Blue 17
2 PM Tue 74 79 SW 8 8083 7469 3509 Blue 17
3 PM Tue 73 77 SW 8 7649 7153 3193 Blue 15
4 PM Tue 73 76 SW 8 7491 6994 3034 Blue 14
5 PM Tue 71 72 SW 9 6854 5675 1715 Blue 11
6 PM Tue 68 68 SW 9 5585 5403 1443 Blue 7
7 PM Tue 68 68 SW 9 5585 5403 1443 Blue 7
8 PM Tue 67 67 SW 8 5526 5370 1410 Blue 6
9 PM Tue 65 65 SW 8 5407 5307 1347 Blue 4
10 PM Tue 64 64 SW 8 5372 4642 682 Blue 3
11 PM Tue 63 63 NE 10 5341 3960 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Wed 65 65 NE 10 5407 5307 1347 Blue 4
1 AM Wed 65 65 NE 10 5407 5307 1347 Blue 4
2 AM Wed 64 64 NE 9 5372 4642 682 Blue 3
3 AM Wed 63 63 NE 9 5341 3960 0 Blue 2
4 AM Wed 63 63 NE 9 5341 3960 0 Blue 2
5 AM Wed 63 63 NE 7 5341 3960 0 Blue 2
6 AM Wed 62 62 NE 7 5309 3960 0 Blue 1
7 AM Wed 62 62 NE 7 5309 3960 0 Blue 1
8 AM Wed 63 63 NE 8 5341 3960 0 Blue 2
9 AM Wed 65 66 NE 8 5466 5339 1379 Blue 5
10 AM Wed 67 70 NE 8 6040 5522 1562 Blue 9
11 AM Wed 69 74 SW 8 7173 6677 2717 Blue 13
12 Noon Wed 70 76 SW 8 7491 6994 3034 Blue 14
1 PM Wed 70 76 SW 8 7491 6994 3034 Blue 14
2 PM Wed 71 77 W 10 7649 7153 3193 Blue 15
3 PM Wed 70 75 W 10 7332 6835 2875 Blue 13
4 PM Wed 70 73 W 10 7013 5974 2014 Blue 12
5 PM Wed 68 69 NW 12 5683 5462 1502 Blue 8
6 PM Wed 65 65 NW 12 5407 5307 1347 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 64 64 NW 12 5372 4642 682 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 64 64 NW 12 5372 4642 682 Blue 3
9 PM Wed 62 62 NW 12 5309 3960 0 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 60 60 NW 12 3921 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 59 59 N 9 3117 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 61 61 N 9 4675 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 61 61 N 9 4675 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 60 60 N 9 3921 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 59 59 N 9 3117 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 59 59 N 9 3117 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 59 59 N 7 3117 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 58 58 N 7 2539 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 59 59 N 7 3117 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 60 60 N 7 3921 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 63 64 N 7 5372 4642 682 Blue 3
10 AM Thu 66 68 N 7 5585 5403 1443 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 70 75 W 12 7332 6835 2875 Blue 13
12 Noon Thu 71 77 W 12 7649 7153 3193 Blue 15
1 PM Thu 72 78 W 12 7817 7311 3351 Blue 16
2 PM Thu 73 79 W 12 8083 7469 3509 Blue 17
3 PM Thu 72 77 W 12 7649 7153 3193 Blue 15
4 PM Thu 72 75 W 12 7332 6835 2875 Blue 13
5 PM Thu 69 70 NW 17 6040 5522 1562 Blue 9
6 PM Thu 66 66 NW 17 5466 5339 1379 Blue 5
7 PM Thu 65 65 NW 17 5407 5307 1347 Blue 4
8 PM Thu 64 64 NW 17 5372 4642 682 Blue 3
9 PM Thu 62 62 NW 17 5309 3960 0 Blue 1
10 PM Thu 60 60 NW 17 3921 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 59 59 N 12 3117 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 61 61 N 12 4675 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 62 62 N 12 5309 3960 0 Blue 1
2 AM Fri 60 60 N 12 3921 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 60 60 N 12 3921 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 59 59 N 12 3117 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 60 60 NE 7 3921 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 58 58 NE 7 2539 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 59 59 NE 7 3117 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 60 60 NE 7 3921 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 63 64 NE 7 5372 4642 682 Blue 3
10 AM Fri 66 69 NE 7 5683 5462 1502 Blue 8
11 AM Fri 70 75 NW 9 7332 6835 2875 Blue 13
12 Noon Fri 71 77 NW 9 7649 7153 3193 Blue 15
1 PM Fri 72 78 NW 9 7817 7311 3351 Blue 16
2 PM Fri 73 79 NW 9 8083 7469 3509 Blue 17
3 PM Fri 72 77 NW 9 7649 7153 3193 Blue 15
4 PM Fri 72 75 NW 9 7332 6835 2875 Blue 13
5 PM Fri 71 72 NW 10 6854 5675 1715 Blue 11
6 PM Fri 68 68 NW 10 5585 5403 1443 Blue 7
7 PM Fri 68 68 NW 10 5585 5403 1443 Blue 7
8 PM Fri 67 67 NW 10 5526 5370 1410 Blue 6
9 PM Fri 66 66 NW 10 5466 5339 1379 Blue 5
10 PM Fri 64 64 NW 10 5372 4642 682 Blue 3
11 PM Fri 64 64 N 9 5372 4642 682 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sat 65 65 N 9 5407 5307 1347 Blue 4
1 AM Sat 66 66 N 9 5466 5339 1379 Blue 5
2 AM Sat 65 65 N 9 5407 5307 1347 Blue 4
3 AM Sat 64 64 N 9 5372 4642 682 Blue 3
4 AM Sat 64 64 N 9 5372 4642 682 Blue 3
5 AM Sat 64 64 NE 6 5372 4642 682 Blue 3
6 AM Sat 63 63 NE 6 5341 3960 0 Blue 2
7 AM Sat 63 63 NE 6 5341 3960 0 Blue 2
8 AM Sat 65 65 NE 6 5407 5307 1347 Blue 4
9 AM Sat 67 68 NE 6 5585 5403 1443 Blue 7
10 AM Sat 70 73 NE 6 7013 5974 2014 Blue 12
11 AM Sat 72 77 NW 7 7649 7153 3193 Blue 15
12 Noon Sat 73 79 NW 7 8083 7469 3509 Blue 17
1 PM Sat 74 80 NW 7 8347 7627 3667 Blue 18
2 PM Sat 75 81 NW 7 8629 7785 3825 Blue 19
3 PM Sat 74 79 NW 7 8083 7469 3509 Blue 17
4 PM Sat 74 77 NW 7 7649 7153 3193 Blue 15
5 PM Sat 73 74 NW 7 7173 6677 2717 Blue 13
6 PM Sat 70 70 NW 7 6040 5522 1562 Blue 9
7 PM Sat 70 70 NW 7 6040 5522 1562 Blue 9
8 PM Sat 69 69 NW 7 5683 5462 1502 Blue 8
9 PM Sat 68 68 NW 7 5585 5403 1443 Blue 7
10 PM Sat 66 66 NW 7 5466 5339 1379 Blue 5
11 PM Sat 66 66 N 6 5466 5339 1379 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sun 67 67 N 6 5526 5370 1410 Blue 6
1 AM Sun 68 68 N 6 5585 5403 1443 Blue 7
2 AM Sun 67 67 N 6 5526 5370 1410 Blue 6
3 AM Sun 66 66 N 6 5466 5339 1379 Blue 5
4 AM Sun 66 66 N 6 5466 5339 1379 Blue 5
5 AM Sun 66 66 NE 6 5466 5339 1379 Blue 5
6 AM Sun 65 65 NE 6 5407 5307 1347 Blue 4
7 AM Sun 65 65 NE 6 5407 5307 1347 Blue 4
8 AM Sun 67 67 NE 6 5526 5370 1410 Blue 6
9 AM Sun 69 70 NE 6 6040 5522 1562 Blue 9
10 AM Sun 72 74 NE 6 7173 6677 2717 Blue 13
11 AM Sun 74 78 W 8 7817 7311 3351 Blue 16
12 Noon Sun 75 80 W 8 8347 7627 3667 Blue 18
1 PM Sun 76 81 W 8 8629 7785 3825 Blue 19
2 PM Sun 77 82 W 8 9128 8041 4081 Blue 20
3 PM Sun 76 80 W 8 8347 7627 3667 Blue 18
4 PM Sun 76 79 W 8 8083 7469 3509 Blue 17
5 PM Sun 74 75 W 8 7332 6835 2875 Blue 13
6 PM Sun 72 72 W 8 6854 5675 1715 Blue 11
7 PM Sun 71 71 W 8 6694 5581 1621 Blue 10
8 PM Sun 71 71 W 8 6694 5581 1621 Blue 10
9 PM Sun 69 69 W 8 5683 5462 1502 Blue 8
10 PM Sun 67 67 W 8 5526 5370 1410 Blue 6
11 PM Sun 67 67 N 6 5526 5370 1410 Blue 6
12 Midnight Mon 69 69 N 6 5683 5462 1502 Blue 8
1 AM Mon 69 69 N 6 5683 5462 1502 Blue 8
2 AM Mon 68 68 N 6 5585 5403 1443 Blue 7
3 AM Mon 67 67 N 6 5526 5370 1410 Blue 6
4 AM Mon 67 67 N 6 5526 5370 1410 Blue 6

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com