Detailed Predictions for: La Cumbre Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 3960
LZ Altitude (f): 695
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

26 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 45 45 W 5 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 46 46 W 5 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 46 46 W 5 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 47 47 W 6 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 47 48 W 6 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 50 52 W 6 3794 3960 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 53 55 SW 2 4458 3960 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Tue 53 55 SW 2 4458 3960 0 Blue 3
1 PM Tue 55 58 SW 2 5428 4448 488 Blue 6
2 PM Tue 57 59 W 9 6040 4708 748 Blue 7
3 PM Tue 58 60 W 9 6813 4969 1009 White 8
4 PM Tue 58 59 W 9 6040 4708 748 Blue 7
5 PM Tue 57 57 W 9 4988 4092 132 Blue 5
6 PM Tue 56 56 W 9 4721 3965 5 Blue 4
7 PM Tue 54 54 W 9 4095 3960 0 Blue 2
8 PM Tue 52 52 W 5 3794 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 50 50 W 5 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 50 50 W 5 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 48 48 S 3 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 47 47 S 3 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 47 47 S 3 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 47 47 SW 1 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 48 48 SW 1 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 47 47 SW 1 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 46 46 W 2 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 46 46 W 2 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 46 46 W 2 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 47 47 NW 2 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 47 47 NW 2 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 49 49 NW 2 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 49 50 S 7 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 50 51 S 7 3359 3960 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 51 52 S 7 3794 3960 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 51 52 SW 13 3794 3960 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 52 53 SW 13 3968 3960 0 Blue 1
4 PM Wed 52 52 SW 13 3794 3960 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 51 51 SW 12 3359 3960 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 50 50 SW 12 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 48 48 SW 12 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 46 46 W 8 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 44 44 W 8 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 44 44 W 8 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 42 42 W 9 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 41 41 W 9 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 41 41 W 9 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 41 41 NW 8 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 42 42 NW 8 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 41 41 NW 8 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 40 40 NW 8 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 41 41 NW 8 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 41 41 NW 8 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 42 42 NW 9 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 42 43 NW 9 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 45 47 NW 9 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 48 51 S 8 3359 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 48 52 S 8 3794 3960 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 50 54 S 8 4095 3960 0 Blue 2
2 PM Thu 52 56 NW 14 4721 3965 5 Blue 4
3 PM Thu 53 56 NW 14 4721 3965 5 Blue 4
4 PM Thu 53 55 NW 14 4458 3960 0 Blue 3
5 PM Thu 52 53 NW 23 3968 3960 0 Blue 1
6 PM Thu 51 51 NW 23 3359 3960 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 48 48 NW 23 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 46 46 NW 23 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 44 44 NW 23 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 44 44 NW 23 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 42 42 NE 23 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 41 41 NE 23 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 41 41 NE 23 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 41 41 NE 23 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 42 42 NE 23 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 41 41 NE 23 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 40 40 N 20 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 41 41 N 20 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 41 41 N 20 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 42 42 N 20 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 43 44 N 20 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 47 50 N 20 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 50 54 NW 16 4095 3960 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Fri 50 55 NW 16 4458 3960 0 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 53 58 NW 16 5428 4448 488 Blue 6
2 PM Fri 55 60 NW 16 6813 4969 1009 White 8
3 PM Fri 57 61 NW 16 7029 5385 1425 White 9
4 PM Fri 57 59 NW 16 6040 4708 748 Blue 7
5 PM Fri 56 57 NW 18 4988 4092 132 Blue 5
6 PM Fri 55 55 NW 18 4458 3960 0 Blue 3
7 PM Fri 53 53 NW 18 3968 3960 0 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 51 51 NW 18 3359 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 50 50 NW 18 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 49 49 NW 18 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 48 48 N 22 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 47 47 N 22 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 47 47 N 22 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 47 47 N 22 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 47 47 N 22 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 47 47 N 22 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 46 46 N 15 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 47 47 N 15 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 47 47 N 15 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 48 48 N 15 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 49 50 N 15 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 52 55 N 15 4458 3960 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 54 58 NW 13 5428 4448 488 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 54 59 NW 13 6040 4708 748 Blue 7
1 PM Sat 57 63 NW 13 7461 6566 2606 White 11
2 PM Sat 58 63 NW 13 7461 6566 2606 White 11
3 PM Sat 60 64 NW 13 7677 7124 3164 White 12
4 PM Sat 60 63 NW 13 7461 6566 2606 White 11
5 PM Sat 59 60 W 12 6813 4969 1009 White 8
6 PM Sat 58 58 W 12 5428 4448 488 Blue 6
7 PM Sat 56 56 W 12 4721 3965 5 Blue 4
8 PM Sat 55 55 W 12 4458 3960 0 Blue 3
9 PM Sat 53 53 W 12 3968 3960 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sat 53 53 W 12 3968 3960 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sat 52 52 N 14 3794 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 51 51 N 14 3359 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 51 51 N 14 3359 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 51 51 N 14 3359 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 51 51 N 14 3359 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 51 51 N 14 3359 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 50 50 N 9 3097 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 51 51 N 9 3359 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 51 51 N 9 3359 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 52 52 N 9 3794 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 52 53 N 9 3968 3960 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 55 58 N 9 5428 4448 488 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 58 62 W 10 7246 5987 2027 White 10
12 Noon Sun 58 63 W 10 7461 6566 2606 White 11
1 PM Sun 60 65 W 10 7891 7664 3704 White 13
2 PM Sun 62 67 W 10 8319 8319 4359 White 15
3 PM Sun 63 67 W 10 8319 8319 4359 White 15
4 PM Sun 63 65 W 10 7891 7664 3704 White 13
5 PM Sun 62 63 W 10 7461 6566 2606 White 11
6 PM Sun 61 61 W 10 7029 5385 1425 White 9
7 PM Sun 59 59 W 10 6040 4708 748 Blue 7
8 PM Sun 57 57 W 10 4988 4092 132 Blue 5
9 PM Sun 55 55 W 10 4458 3960 0 Blue 3
10 PM Sun 55 55 W 10 4458 3960 0 Blue 3
11 PM Sun 53 53 N 13 3968 3960 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Mon 52 52 N 13 3794 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 52 52 N 13 3794 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 52 52 N 13 3794 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 53 53 N 13 3968 3960 0 Blue 1
4 AM Mon 52 52 N 13 3794 3960 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com