Detailed Predictions for: La Cumbre Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 3960
LZ Altitude (f): 695
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

21 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 72 72 NE 2 3419 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 72 72 NE 2 3419 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 72 72 NE 2 3419 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 74 74 NE 3 4124 3960 0 Blue 2
9 AM Sat 75 75 NE 3 4335 3960 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sat 75 76 NE 3 4659 3960 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 76 81 S 5 6908 5299 1339 Blue 8
12 Noon Sat 77 83 S 5 8184 5774 1814 Blue 10
1 PM Sat 77 84 S 5 8352 6791 2831 Blue 11
2 PM Sat 78 85 SW 7 8519 7757 3797 Blue 12
3 PM Sat 79 85 SW 7 8519 7757 3797 Blue 12
4 PM Sat 79 83 SW 7 8184 5774 1814 Blue 10
5 PM Sat 79 81 W 8 6908 5299 1339 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 79 80 W 8 5793 5060 1100 Blue 7
7 PM Sat 77 77 W 8 5074 4118 158 Blue 4
8 PM Sat 76 76 NW 6 4659 3960 0 Blue 3
9 PM Sat 75 75 NW 6 4335 3960 0 Blue 3
10 PM Sat 75 75 NW 6 4335 3960 0 Blue 3
11 PM Sat 75 75 E 5 4335 3960 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sun 74 74 E 5 4124 3960 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sun 74 74 E 5 4124 3960 0 Blue 2
2 AM Sun 73 73 NE 3 3913 3960 0 Blue 1
3 AM Sun 73 73 NE 3 3913 3960 0 Blue 1
4 AM Sun 72 72 NE 3 3419 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 72 72 N 5 3419 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 72 72 N 5 3419 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 73 73 N 5 3913 3960 0 Blue 1
8 AM Sun 77 78 N 5 5314 4328 368 Blue 5
9 AM Sun 79 81 N 5 6908 5299 1339 Blue 8
10 AM Sun 80 84 N 5 8352 6791 2831 Blue 11
11 AM Sun 83 89 SW 8 9188 8658 4698 Blue 16
12 Noon Sun 85 92 SW 8 9946 9157 5197 Blue 19
1 PM Sun 86 94 SW 8 11310 9491 5531 Blue 21
2 PM Sun 87 95 SW 8 12103 9848 5888 Blue 22
3 PM Sun 89 95 SW 8 12103 9848 5888 Blue 22
4 PM Sun 90 95 SW 8 12103 9848 5888 Blue 22
5 PM Sun 89 92 W 10 9946 9157 5197 Blue 19
6 PM Sun 89 90 W 10 9355 8824 4864 Blue 17
7 PM Sun 85 85 W 10 8519 7757 3797 Blue 12
8 PM Sun 84 84 W 10 8352 6791 2831 Blue 11
9 PM Sun 82 82 W 10 7891 5537 1577 Blue 9
10 PM Sun 82 82 W 10 7891 5537 1577 Blue 9
11 PM Sun 81 81 NE 14 6908 5299 1339 Blue 8
12 Midnight Mon 80 80 NE 14 5793 5060 1100 Blue 7
1 AM Mon 79 79 NE 14 5554 4644 684 Blue 6
2 AM Mon 77 77 NE 14 5074 4118 158 Blue 4
3 AM Mon 77 77 NE 14 5074 4118 158 Blue 4
4 AM Mon 75 75 NE 14 4335 3960 0 Blue 3
5 AM Mon 75 75 NE 10 4335 3960 0 Blue 3
6 AM Mon 75 75 NE 10 4335 3960 0 Blue 3
7 AM Mon 76 76 NE 10 4659 3960 0 Blue 3
8 AM Mon 82 83 NE 10 8184 5774 1814 Blue 10
9 AM Mon 84 86 NE 10 8687 8158 4198 Blue 13
10 AM Mon 85 89 NE 10 9188 8658 4698 Blue 16
11 AM Mon 88 94 NW 9 11310 9491 5531 Blue 21
12 Noon Mon 90 97 NW 9 13632 11099 7139 White 24
1 PM Mon 92 100 NW 9 14253 13307 9347 White 27
2 PM Mon 94 102 NW 9 14660 14660 10700 White 29
3 PM Mon 96 102 NW 9 14660 14660 10700 White 29
4 PM Mon 97 102 NW 9 14660 14660 10700 White 29
5 PM Mon 96 99 NW 14 14046 12619 8659 White 26
6 PM Mon 96 97 NW 14 13632 11099 7139 White 24
7 PM Mon 92 92 NW 14 9946 9157 5197 Blue 19
8 PM Mon 90 90 NW 14 9355 8824 4864 Blue 17
9 PM Mon 88 88 NW 14 9021 8491 4531 Blue 15
10 PM Mon 88 88 NW 14 9021 8491 4531 Blue 15
11 PM Mon 87 87 N 15 8854 8325 4365 Blue 14
12 Midnight Tue 85 85 N 15 8519 7757 3797 Blue 12
1 AM Tue 85 85 N 15 8519 7757 3797 Blue 12
2 AM Tue 82 82 N 15 7891 5537 1577 Blue 9
3 AM Tue 82 82 N 15 7891 5537 1577 Blue 9
4 AM Tue 80 80 N 15 5793 5060 1100 Blue 7
5 AM Tue 80 80 N 9 5793 5060 1100 Blue 7
6 AM Tue 80 80 N 9 5793 5060 1100 Blue 7
7 AM Tue 81 81 N 9 6908 5299 1339 Blue 8
8 AM Tue 86 87 N 9 8854 8325 4365 Blue 14
9 AM Tue 88 90 N 9 9355 8824 4864 Blue 17
10 AM Tue 89 93 N 9 10447 9323 5363 Blue 20
11 AM Tue 91 97 NW 12 13632 11099 7139 White 24
12 Noon Tue 93 100 NW 12 14253 13307 9347 White 27
1 PM Tue 95 103 NW 12 14862 14862 10902 White 30
2 PM Tue 96 104 NW 12 15064 15064 11104 White 31
3 PM Tue 98 104 NW 12 15064 15064 11104 White 31
4 PM Tue 99 104 NW 12 15064 15064 11104 White 31
5 PM Tue 98 101 NW 14 14458 13958 9998 White 28
6 PM Tue 98 99 NW 14 14046 12619 8659 White 26
7 PM Tue 94 94 NW 14 11310 9491 5531 Blue 21
8 PM Tue 92 92 NW 14 9946 9157 5197 Blue 19
9 PM Tue 90 90 NW 14 9355 8824 4864 Blue 17
10 PM Tue 90 90 NW 14 9355 8824 4864 Blue 17
11 PM Tue 88 88 N 13 9021 8491 4531 Blue 15
12 Midnight Wed 87 87 N 13 8854 8325 4365 Blue 14
1 AM Wed 86 86 N 13 8687 8158 4198 Blue 13
2 AM Wed 84 84 N 13 8352 6791 2831 Blue 11
3 AM Wed 83 83 N 13 8184 5774 1814 Blue 10
4 AM Wed 81 81 N 13 6908 5299 1339 Blue 8
5 AM Wed 81 81 N 9 6908 5299 1339 Blue 8
6 AM Wed 81 81 N 9 6908 5299 1339 Blue 8
7 AM Wed 82 82 N 9 7891 5537 1577 Blue 9
8 AM Wed 86 87 N 9 8854 8325 4365 Blue 14
9 AM Wed 88 90 N 9 9355 8824 4864 Blue 17
10 AM Wed 89 93 N 9 10447 9323 5363 Blue 20
11 AM Wed 92 98 NW 13 13839 11886 7926 White 25
12 Noon Wed 94 101 NW 13 14458 13958 9998 White 28
1 PM Wed 95 103 NW 13 14862 14862 10902 White 30
2 PM Wed 96 104 NW 13 15064 15064 11104 White 31
3 PM Wed 98 104 NW 13 15064 15064 11104 White 31
4 PM Wed 99 104 NW 13 15064 15064 11104 White 31
5 PM Wed 98 101 NW 15 14458 13958 9998 White 28
6 PM Wed 98 99 NW 15 14046 12619 8659 White 26
7 PM Wed 94 94 NW 15 11310 9491 5531 Blue 21
8 PM Wed 92 92 NW 15 9946 9157 5197 Blue 19
9 PM Wed 90 90 NW 15 9355 8824 4864 Blue 17
10 PM Wed 90 90 NW 15 9355 8824 4864 Blue 17
11 PM Wed 88 88 N 16 9021 8491 4531 Blue 15
12 Midnight Thu 87 87 N 16 8854 8325 4365 Blue 14
1 AM Thu 86 86 N 16 8687 8158 4198 Blue 13
2 AM Thu 84 84 N 16 8352 6791 2831 Blue 11
3 AM Thu 83 83 N 16 8184 5774 1814 Blue 10
4 AM Thu 81 81 N 16 6908 5299 1339 Blue 8
5 AM Thu 81 81 N 14 6908 5299 1339 Blue 8
6 AM Thu 81 81 N 14 6908 5299 1339 Blue 8
7 AM Thu 82 82 N 14 7891 5537 1577 Blue 9
8 AM Thu 86 87 N 14 8854 8325 4365 Blue 14
9 AM Thu 88 90 N 14 9355 8824 4864 Blue 17
10 AM Thu 89 93 N 14 10447 9323 5363 Blue 20
11 AM Thu 91 97 NW 13 13632 11099 7139 White 24
12 Noon Thu 93 100 NW 13 14253 13307 9347 White 27
1 PM Thu 94 102 NW 13 14660 14660 10700 White 29
2 PM Thu 95 103 NW 13 14862 14862 10902 White 30
3 PM Thu 97 103 NW 13 14862 14862 10902 White 30
4 PM Thu 98 103 NW 13 14862 14862 10902 White 30
5 PM Thu 97 100 NW 17 14253 13307 9347 White 27
6 PM Thu 97 98 NW 17 13839 11886 7926 White 25
7 PM Thu 92 92 NW 17 9946 9157 5197 Blue 19
8 PM Thu 90 90 NW 17 9355 8824 4864 Blue 17
9 PM Thu 87 87 NW 17 8854 8325 4365 Blue 14
10 PM Thu 87 87 NW 17 8854 8325 4365 Blue 14
11 PM Thu 85 85 N 12 8519 7757 3797 Blue 12
12 Midnight Fri 84 84 N 12 8352 6791 2831 Blue 11
1 AM Fri 83 83 N 12 8184 5774 1814 Blue 10
2 AM Fri 80 80 N 12 5793 5060 1100 Blue 7
3 AM Fri 80 80 N 12 5793 5060 1100 Blue 7
4 AM Fri 77 77 N 12 5074 4118 158 Blue 4

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com