Detailed Predictions for: La Cumbre Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 3960
LZ Altitude (f): 695
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

4 DEC 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 47 47 NE 10 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 47 47 NE 10 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 47 47 NE 10 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 48 48 NE 9 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 47 47 NE 9 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 50 50 NE 9 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 54 55 E 9 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 59 61 E 9 3864 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 61 63 E 9 4344 3960 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 62 64 W 2 4583 3960 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 63 64 W 2 4583 3960 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 62 62 W 2 4105 3960 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 59 59 W 2 3380 3960 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 56 56 W 2 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 54 54 W 2 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 53 53 W 2 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 50 50 W 2 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 50 50 W 2 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 49 49 NE 9 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 48 48 NE 9 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 48 48 NE 9 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 48 48 NE 8 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 48 48 NE 8 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 47 47 NE 8 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 47 47 NE 6 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 47 47 NE 6 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 47 47 NE 6 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 47 47 NE 5 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 46 46 NE 5 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 49 49 NE 5 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 53 54 S 5 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 58 60 S 5 3623 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 60 62 S 5 4105 3960 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 61 63 SW 7 4344 3960 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 62 63 SW 7 4344 3960 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 61 61 SW 7 3864 3960 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 58 58 W 6 3137 3960 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 55 55 W 6 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 53 53 W 6 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 51 51 N 10 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 49 49 N 10 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 48 48 N 10 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 48 48 N 8 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 47 47 N 8 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 47 47 N 8 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 46 46 N 8 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 46 46 N 8 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 45 45 N 8 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 45 45 N 8 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 45 45 N 8 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 45 45 N 8 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 45 45 N 7 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 44 44 N 7 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 48 48 N 7 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 55 56 E 2 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 61 62 E 2 4105 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 64 66 E 2 5058 4336 376 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 65 66 E 2 5058 4336 376 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 67 68 E 2 6357 4809 849 Blue 2
3 PM Sun 66 66 E 2 5058 4336 376 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 63 63 W 8 4344 3960 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 60 60 W 8 3623 3960 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 58 58 W 8 3137 3960 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 57 57 N 14 2892 3960 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 54 54 N 14 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 54 54 N 14 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 53 53 N 12 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 52 52 N 12 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 52 52 N 12 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 52 52 NE 12 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 52 52 NE 12 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 51 51 NE 12 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 51 51 NE 12 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 51 51 NE 12 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 51 51 NE 12 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 51 51 NE 12 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 50 50 NE 12 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 52 52 NE 12 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 56 57 NE 13 2892 3960 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 60 62 NE 13 4105 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 62 64 NE 13 4583 3960 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 63 65 NE 13 4821 4098 138 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 64 65 NE 13 4821 4098 138 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 63 63 NE 13 4344 3960 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 62 62 N 18 4105 3960 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 60 60 N 18 3623 3960 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 59 59 N 18 3380 3960 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 58 58 N 18 3137 3960 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 57 57 N 18 2892 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 56 56 N 18 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 56 56 N 18 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 55 55 N 18 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 55 55 N 18 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 55 55 NE 14 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 55 55 NE 14 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 55 55 NE 14 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 54 54 NE 14 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 54 54 NE 14 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 54 54 NE 14 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 55 55 NE 14 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 54 54 NE 14 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 57 57 NE 14 2892 3960 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 61 62 NE 12 4105 3960 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 65 66 NE 12 5058 4336 376 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 67 69 NE 12 7012 5045 1085 Blue 3
1 PM Tue 68 69 N 10 7012 5045 1085 Blue 3
2 PM Tue 69 70 N 10 7638 5613 1653 Blue 4
3 PM Tue 68 68 N 10 6357 4809 849 Blue 2
4 PM Tue 66 66 NW 8 5058 4336 376 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 63 63 NW 8 4344 3960 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 61 61 NW 8 3864 3960 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 60 60 N 14 3623 3960 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 58 58 N 14 3137 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 57 57 N 14 2892 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 57 57 N 10 2892 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 56 56 N 10 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 56 56 N 10 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 55 55 N 8 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 55 55 N 8 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 55 55 N 8 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 55 55 N 8 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 55 N 8 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 55 55 N 8 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 55 55 NE 8 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 54 54 NE 8 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 56 56 NE 8 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 60 61 NE 7 3864 3960 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 63 65 NE 7 4821 4098 138 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 65 67 NE 7 5667 4573 613 Blue 1
1 PM Wed 65 67 W 9 5667 4573 613 Blue 1
2 PM Wed 66 67 W 9 5667 4573 613 Blue 1
3 PM Wed 65 65 W 9 4821 4098 138 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 63 63 W 8 4344 3960 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 59 59 W 8 3380 3960 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 58 58 W 8 3137 3960 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 56 56 N 13 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 54 54 N 13 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 53 53 N 13 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 53 53 N 9 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 52 52 N 9 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 52 52 N 9 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 52 52 N 8 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 52 52 N 8 2884 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 51 51 N 8 2884 3960 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com