Detailed Predictions for: La Cumbre Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 3960
LZ Altitude (f): 695
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

16 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 66 66 SE 8 3155 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 65 65 SE 8 2972 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 66 66 SE 8 3155 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 69 69 SE 7 3705 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 70 71 SE 7 4877 3960 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 73 76 SE 7 5603 5162 1202 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 73 78 S 8 6590 5449 1489 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 75 81 S 8 8557 6517 2557 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 76 82 S 8 9156 7193 3233 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 78 84 SW 8 9767 8454 4494 Blue 14
3 PM Sun 79 84 SW 8 9767 8454 4494 Blue 14
4 PM Sun 78 81 SW 8 8557 6517 2557 Blue 11
5 PM Sun 77 78 W 10 6590 5449 1489 Blue 8
6 PM Sun 74 74 W 10 5315 4867 907 Blue 4
7 PM Sun 74 74 W 10 5315 4867 907 Blue 4
8 PM Sun 73 73 N 9 5171 3960 0 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 72 72 N 9 5026 3960 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 71 71 N 9 4877 3960 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sun 71 71 E 8 4877 3960 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Mon 70 70 E 8 3887 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 71 71 E 8 4877 3960 0 Blue 1
2 AM Mon 69 69 E 7 3705 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 67 67 E 7 3339 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 67 67 E 7 3339 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 66 66 E 7 3155 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 65 65 E 7 2972 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 66 66 E 7 3155 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 69 69 SE 6 3705 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 70 71 SE 6 4877 3960 0 Blue 1
10 AM Mon 73 76 SE 6 5603 5162 1202 Blue 6
11 AM Mon 73 78 SW 7 6590 5449 1489 Blue 8
12 Noon Mon 75 81 SW 7 8557 6517 2557 Blue 11
1 PM Mon 76 82 SW 7 9156 7193 3233 Blue 12
2 PM Mon 78 84 SW 9 9767 8454 4494 Blue 14
3 PM Mon 79 84 SW 9 9767 8454 4494 Blue 14
4 PM Mon 78 81 SW 9 8557 6517 2557 Blue 11
5 PM Mon 77 78 W 13 6590 5449 1489 Blue 8
6 PM Mon 74 74 W 13 5315 4867 907 Blue 4
7 PM Mon 74 74 W 13 5315 4867 907 Blue 4
8 PM Mon 73 73 N 9 5171 3960 0 Blue 3
9 PM Mon 72 72 N 9 5026 3960 0 Blue 2
10 PM Mon 71 71 N 9 4877 3960 0 Blue 1
11 PM Mon 71 71 N 7 4877 3960 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Tue 70 70 N 7 3887 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 71 71 N 7 4877 3960 0 Blue 1
2 AM Tue 69 69 N 7 3705 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 67 67 N 7 3339 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 67 67 N 7 3339 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 66 66 E 6 3155 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 65 65 E 6 2972 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 65 65 E 6 2972 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 66 66 E 6 3155 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 66 67 E 6 3339 3960 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 67 70 E 6 3887 3960 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 67 72 W 9 5026 3960 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Tue 68 74 W 9 5315 4867 907 Blue 4
1 PM Tue 68 74 W 9 5315 4867 907 Blue 4
2 PM Tue 69 75 W 9 5459 5018 1058 Blue 5
3 PM Tue 69 74 W 9 5315 4867 907 Blue 4
4 PM Tue 69 72 W 9 5026 3960 0 Blue 2
5 PM Tue 68 69 W 10 3705 3960 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 67 67 W 10 3339 3960 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 67 67 W 10 3339 3960 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 67 67 W 10 3339 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 67 67 W 10 3339 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 66 66 W 10 3155 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 66 66 N 13 3155 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 66 66 N 13 3155 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 66 66 N 13 3155 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 65 65 N 13 2972 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 65 65 N 13 2972 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 65 65 N 13 2972 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 64 64 N 7 2795 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 64 64 N 7 2795 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 65 65 N 7 2972 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 66 66 N 7 3155 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 66 67 N 7 3339 3960 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 67 70 N 7 3887 3960 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 67 72 NW 13 5026 3960 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Wed 68 74 NW 13 5315 4867 907 Blue 4
1 PM Wed 69 75 NW 13 5459 5018 1058 Blue 5
2 PM Wed 70 76 NW 13 5603 5162 1202 Blue 6
3 PM Wed 70 75 NW 13 5459 5018 1058 Blue 5
4 PM Wed 70 73 NW 13 5171 3960 0 Blue 3
5 PM Wed 69 70 NW 15 3887 3960 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 68 68 NW 15 3522 3960 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 68 68 NW 15 3522 3960 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 68 68 NW 15 3522 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 68 68 NW 15 3522 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 67 67 NW 15 3339 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 67 67 NE 10 3339 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 67 67 NE 10 3339 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 67 67 NE 10 3339 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 66 66 NE 10 3155 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 66 66 NE 10 3155 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 66 66 NE 10 3155 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 65 65 NE 6 2972 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 65 65 NE 6 2972 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 66 66 NE 6 3155 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 67 67 NE 6 3339 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 67 68 NE 6 3522 3960 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 68 71 NE 6 4877 3960 0 Blue 1
11 AM Thu 68 73 W 9 5171 3960 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Thu 69 75 W 9 5459 5018 1058 Blue 5
1 PM Thu 70 76 W 9 5603 5162 1202 Blue 6
2 PM Thu 71 77 W 9 5875 5306 1346 Blue 7
3 PM Thu 71 76 W 9 5603 5162 1202 Blue 6
4 PM Thu 71 74 W 9 5315 4867 907 Blue 4
5 PM Thu 70 71 NW 10 4877 3960 0 Blue 1
6 PM Thu 70 70 NW 10 3887 3960 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 69 69 NW 10 3705 3960 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 69 69 NW 10 3705 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 69 69 NW 10 3705 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 69 69 NW 10 3705 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 69 69 NE 7 3705 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 68 68 NE 7 3522 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 69 69 NE 7 3705 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 68 68 NE 7 3522 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 68 68 NE 7 3522 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 68 68 NE 7 3522 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 67 67 NE 6 3339 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 67 67 NE 6 3339 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 67 67 NE 6 3339 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 68 68 NE 6 3522 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 68 69 NE 6 3705 3960 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 68 71 NE 6 4877 3960 0 Blue 1
11 AM Fri 68 73 NW 7 5171 3960 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Fri 68 74 NW 7 5315 4867 907 Blue 4
1 PM Fri 69 75 NW 7 5459 5018 1058 Blue 5
2 PM Fri 69 75 NW 7 5459 5018 1058 Blue 5
3 PM Fri 69 74 NW 7 5315 4867 907 Blue 4
4 PM Fri 69 72 NW 7 5026 3960 0 Blue 2
5 PM Fri 69 70 NW 8 3887 3960 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 68 68 NW 8 3522 3960 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 68 68 NW 8 3522 3960 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 68 68 NW 8 3522 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 68 68 NW 8 3522 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 67 67 NW 8 3339 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 67 67 NE 5 3339 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 67 67 NE 5 3339 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 67 67 NE 5 3339 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 67 67 NE 5 3339 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 66 66 NE 5 3155 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 66 66 NE 5 3155 3960 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com