Detailed Predictions for: La Cumbre Peak
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.4946, -119.713218, 3960
LZ Altitude (f): 695
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

16 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 58 58 NW 0 1 3489 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 57 57 SSW 0 0 3386 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 56 56 SSW 0 1 3284 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 55 55 NNE 0 1 3181 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 55 55 ENE 0 1 3181 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 55 55 ESE 0 1 3181 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 55 55 ESE 1 3 3181 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 55 55 ESE 2 4 3181 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 63 63 SSE 2 2 4003 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 68 69 S 3 4 4620 4310 350 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 70 73 S 5 5 5697 4721 761 Blue 2
11 AM Thu 75 80 SSW 5 6 8314 7183 3223 Blue 9
12 Noon Thu 77 83 SSW 5 6 9370 8265 4305 Blue 12
1 PM Thu 79 86 SW 6 7 10645 9311 5351 Blue 15
2 PM Thu 79 85 SW 7 8 10055 8966 5006 Blue 14
3 PM Thu 79 84 SW 6 8 9714 8617 4657 Blue 13
4 PM Thu 77 80 SW 6 7 8314 7183 3223 Blue 9
5 PM Thu 75 75 SW 6 7 6469 5287 1327 Blue 4
6 PM Thu 73 73 SW 4 5 5697 4721 761 Blue 2
7 PM Thu 62 62 WSW 2 4 3900 3960 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 57 57 WNW 2 5 3386 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 57 57 WNW 1 2 3386 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 57 57 WNW 0 1 3386 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 57 57 ESE 0 0 3386 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 56 56 W 0 0 3284 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 57 57 E 1 3 3386 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 56 56 SSE 1 2 3284 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 55 55 ESE 1 2 3181 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 55 55 ESE 1 3 3181 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 55 55 ESE 2 4 3181 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 55 55 ESE 3 6 3181 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 55 55 ESE 3 6 3181 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 61 61 SSE 3 4 3797 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 67 68 SSE 4 4 4517 4208 248 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 70 73 S 4 5 5697 4721 761 Blue 2
11 AM Fri 75 80 S 4 5 8314 7183 3223 Blue 9
12 Noon Fri 77 83 SSW 5 5 9370 8265 4305 Blue 12
1 PM Fri 78 85 SSW 5 6 10055 8966 5006 Blue 14
2 PM Fri 78 84 SSW 6 6 9714 8617 4657 Blue 13
3 PM Fri 78 83 SW 6 7 9370 8265 4305 Blue 12
4 PM Fri 78 81 SW 5 6 8670 7547 3587 Blue 10
5 PM Fri 76 76 SW 5 5 6847 5676 1716 Blue 5
6 PM Fri 74 74 WSW 3 4 6086 4892 932 Blue 3
7 PM Fri 62 62 W 2 4 3900 3960 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 56 56 NW 2 4 3284 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 57 57 NNW 2 4 3386 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 57 57 NNW 1 2 3386 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 56 56 ENE 0 0 3284 3960 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 55 55 ESE 0 1 3181 3960 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 55 55 ENE 0 1 3181 3960 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 55 55 E 0 1 3181 3960 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 55 55 E 1 2 3181 3960 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 54 54 NE 1 2 3078 3960 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 54 54 ENE 1 3 3078 3960 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 54 54 ENE 1 2 3078 3960 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 54 54 NE 0 1 3078 3960 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 62 62 SE 0 1 3900 3960 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 68 69 S 2 2 4620 4310 350 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 71 74 SSW 3 4 6086 4892 932 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 77 82 SSW 4 5 9022 7908 3948 Blue 11
12 Noon Sat 78 84 SW 5 5 9714 8617 4657 Blue 13
1 PM Sat 79 86 SW 5 6 10645 9311 5351 Blue 15
2 PM Sat 79 85 SW 6 7 10055 8966 5006 Blue 14
3 PM Sat 79 84 SW 6 7 9714 8617 4657 Blue 13
4 PM Sat 78 81 WSW 6 7 8670 7547 3587 Blue 10
5 PM Sat 76 76 WSW 6 7 6847 5676 1716 Blue 5
6 PM Sat 74 74 WSW 5 6 6086 4892 932 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 68 68 W 4 4 4517 4208 248 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 59 59 NW 3 8 3592 3960 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 59 59 NW 3 6 3592 3960 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 59 59 NW 3 6 3592 3960 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 60 60 NNW 2 5 3694 3960 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com