Detailed Predictions for: Malibu - Castro Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 2600
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 57 47 NW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 58 48 NW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 60 50 NW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 63 54 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 65 57 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 67 61 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 68 64 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 69 66 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 70 67 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 71 67 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 71 66 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 70 63 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 69 60 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 65 55 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 62 52 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 60 50 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 58 48 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 57 47 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 56 46 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 55 45 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 54 44 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 53 43 S 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 52 42 S 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 52 42 S 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 51 41 S 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 52 42 S 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 55 45 S 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 58 48 S 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 60 50 S 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 62 52 S 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 64 59 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 65 61 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 66 62 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 67 63 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 67 62 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 67 60 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 65 56 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 63 53 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 60 50 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 58 48 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 57 47 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 56 46 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 55 45 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 54 44 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 53 43 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 53 43 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 52 42 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 51 41 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 51 41 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 52 42 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 55 45 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 58 49 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 61 53 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 63 57 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 65 60 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 66 62 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 67 64 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 68 64 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 68 63 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 67 60 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 66 57 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 63 53 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 60 50 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 58 48 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 56 46 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 55 45 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 55 45 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 54 44 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 53 43 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 52 42 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 51 41 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 51 41 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 50 40 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 51 41 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 54 44 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 57 48 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 60 52 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 62 56 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 65 60 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 66 62 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 67 64 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 68 64 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 68 63 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 67 60 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 66 57 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 63 53 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 60 50 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 58 48 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 57 47 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 56 46 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 55 45 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 54 44 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 54 44 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 53 43 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 52 42 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 52 42 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 51 41 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 52 42 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 55 45 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 58 49 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 60 52 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 62 55 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 64 59 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 65 61 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 66 62 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 67 63 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 67 61 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 66 59 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 65 56 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 62 52 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 59 49 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 57 47 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 56 46 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 55 45 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 54 44 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 53 43 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 52 42 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 51 41 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 51 41 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 50 40 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 50 40 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 52 42 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 55 45 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 57 47 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 60 52 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 62 55 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 64 58 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 65 59 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 66 60 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 67 61 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 67 60 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 66 58 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 65 56 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 62 52 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 59 49 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 57 47 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 55 45 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 54 44 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 53 43 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 52 42 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 51 41 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 50 40 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 50 40 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 49 39 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com