Detailed Predictions for: Malibu - Castro Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 2600
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

25 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Mon 65 55 NE 24 1683 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 65 55 NE 24 1683 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 66 56 NE 24 1683 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 66 56 NE 24 1683 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 64 55 NE 24 1683 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 63 56 NE 24 1683 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 66 60 NE 20 1683 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 72 67 NE 20 2703 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 80 76 NE 20 8155 6997 4397 Blue 9
2 PM Mon 88 83 NW 3 8950 8587 5987 Blue 16
3 PM Mon 93 87 NW 3 10007 9124 6524 Blue 20
4 PM Mon 94 86 NW 3 9717 8926 6326 Blue 19
5 PM Mon 92 83 NW 7 8950 8587 5987 Blue 16
6 PM Mon 88 78 NW 7 8382 8021 5421 Blue 11
7 PM Mon 83 73 NW 7 7099 4863 2263 Blue 6
8 PM Mon 80 70 N 12 4877 2695 95 Blue 3
9 PM Mon 82 72 N 12 6396 4200 1600 Blue 5
10 PM Mon 85 75 N 12 8042 6304 3704 Blue 8
11 PM Mon 86 76 NE 18 8155 6997 4397 Blue 9
12 Midnight Tue 83 73 NE 18 7099 4863 2263 Blue 6
1 AM Tue 78 68 NE 18 3497 2600 0 Blue 1
2 AM Tue 74 64 NE 23 1683 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 73 63 NE 23 1683 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 73 63 NE 23 1683 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 74 64 NE 24 1683 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 73 63 NE 24 1683 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 71 61 NE 24 1683 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 67 57 NE 29 1683 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 65 56 NE 29 1683 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 65 58 NE 29 1683 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 67 61 NE 28 1683 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 75 70 NE 28 4877 2695 95 Blue 3
1 PM Tue 84 80 NE 28 8610 8247 5647 Blue 13
2 PM Tue 91 86 N 5 9717 8926 6326 Blue 19
3 PM Tue 93 87 N 5 10007 9124 6524 Blue 20
4 PM Tue 92 84 N 5 9182 8700 6100 Blue 17
5 PM Tue 91 82 NW 7 8837 8473 5873 Blue 15
6 PM Tue 91 81 NW 7 8723 8360 5760 Blue 14
7 PM Tue 92 82 NW 7 8837 8473 5873 Blue 15
8 PM Tue 91 81 N 7 8723 8360 5760 Blue 14
9 PM Tue 89 79 N 7 8496 8134 5534 Blue 12
10 PM Tue 85 75 N 7 8042 6304 3704 Blue 8
11 PM Tue 80 70 NE 13 4877 2695 95 Blue 3
12 Midnight Wed 76 66 NE 13 1984 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 73 63 NE 13 1683 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 70 60 NE 14 1683 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 68 58 NE 14 1683 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 66 56 NE 14 1683 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 66 56 NE 21 1683 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 66 56 NE 21 1683 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 68 58 NE 21 1683 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 70 60 NE 23 1683 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 73 64 NE 23 1683 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 77 70 NE 23 4877 2695 95 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 81 75 NE 18 8042 6304 3704 Blue 8
12 Noon Wed 86 81 NE 18 8723 8360 5760 Blue 14
1 PM Wed 90 86 NE 18 9717 8926 6326 Blue 19
2 PM Wed 93 88 SW 8 10295 9382 6782 Blue 21
3 PM Wed 93 87 SW 8 10007 9124 6524 Blue 20
4 PM Wed 92 84 SW 8 9182 8700 6100 Blue 17
5 PM Wed 90 81 NW 6 8723 8360 5760 Blue 14
6 PM Wed 87 77 NW 6 8269 7654 5054 Blue 10
7 PM Wed 84 74 NW 6 7766 5570 2970 Blue 7
8 PM Wed 81 71 NW 6 5649 3471 871 Blue 4
9 PM Wed 78 68 NW 6 3497 2600 0 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 75 65 NW 6 1683 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 73 63 S 9 1683 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 71 61 S 9 1683 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 71 61 S 9 1683 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 70 60 S 9 1683 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 69 59 S 9 1683 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 69 59 S 9 1683 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 70 60 NE 10 1683 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 72 62 NE 10 1683 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 75 65 NE 10 1683 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 78 68 NE 10 3497 2600 0 Blue 1
9 AM Thu 82 73 NE 10 7099 4863 2263 Blue 6
10 AM Thu 85 78 NE 10 8382 8021 5421 Blue 11
11 AM Thu 89 83 SW 12 8950 8587 5987 Blue 16
12 Noon Thu 91 86 SW 12 9717 8926 6326 Blue 19
1 PM Thu 92 88 SW 12 10295 9382 6782 Blue 21
2 PM Thu 93 88 SW 12 10295 9382 6782 Blue 21
3 PM Thu 93 87 SW 12 10007 9124 6524 Blue 20
4 PM Thu 93 85 SW 12 9442 8813 6213 Blue 18
5 PM Thu 92 83 SW 12 8950 8587 5987 Blue 16
6 PM Thu 90 80 SW 12 8610 8247 5647 Blue 13
7 PM Thu 89 79 SW 12 8496 8134 5534 Blue 12
8 PM Thu 88 78 SW 12 8382 8021 5421 Blue 11
9 PM Thu 86 76 SW 12 8155 6997 4397 Blue 9
10 PM Thu 84 74 SW 12 7766 5570 2970 Blue 7
11 PM Thu 81 71 N 7 5649 3471 871 Blue 4
12 Midnight Fri 78 68 N 7 3497 2600 0 Blue 1
1 AM Fri 75 65 N 7 1683 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 73 63 N 7 1683 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 71 61 N 7 1683 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 70 60 N 7 1683 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 71 61 N 7 1683 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 73 63 N 7 1683 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 76 66 N 7 1984 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 80 70 N 7 4877 2695 95 Blue 3
9 AM Fri 84 75 N 7 8042 6304 3704 Blue 8
10 AM Fri 88 81 N 7 8723 8360 5760 Blue 14
11 AM Fri 91 85 SW 12 9442 8813 6213 Blue 18
12 Noon Fri 94 89 SW 12 10579 9647 7047 Blue 22
1 PM Fri 96 92 SW 12 11421 10503 7903 Blue 25
2 PM Fri 97 92 SW 12 11421 10503 7903 Blue 25
3 PM Fri 98 92 SW 12 11421 10503 7903 Blue 25
4 PM Fri 98 90 SW 12 10862 9935 7335 Blue 23
5 PM Fri 98 89 W 13 10579 9647 7047 Blue 22
6 PM Fri 98 88 W 13 10295 9382 6782 Blue 21
7 PM Fri 97 87 W 13 10007 9124 6524 Blue 20
8 PM Fri 96 86 W 13 9717 8926 6326 Blue 19
9 PM Fri 94 84 W 13 9182 8700 6100 Blue 17
10 PM Fri 92 82 W 13 8837 8473 5873 Blue 15
11 PM Fri 89 79 N 6 8496 8134 5534 Blue 12
12 Midnight Sat 85 75 N 6 8042 6304 3704 Blue 8
1 AM Sat 81 71 N 6 5649 3471 871 Blue 4
2 AM Sat 78 68 N 6 3497 2600 0 Blue 1
3 AM Sat 74 64 N 6 1683 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 72 62 N 6 1683 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 71 61 NE 12 1683 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 72 62 NE 12 1683 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 74 64 NE 12 1683 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 77 67 NE 12 2703 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 81 72 NE 12 6396 4200 1600 Blue 5
10 AM Sat 85 78 NE 12 8382 8021 5421 Blue 11
11 AM Sat 89 83 S 12 8950 8587 5987 Blue 16
12 Noon Sat 93 88 S 12 10295 9382 6782 Blue 21
1 PM Sat 95 91 S 12 11143 10221 7621 Blue 24
2 PM Sat 98 93 S 12 11698 10784 8184 Blue 26
3 PM Sat 99 93 S 12 11698 10784 8184 Blue 26
4 PM Sat 99 91 S 12 11143 10221 7621 Blue 24
5 PM Sat 98 89 SW 12 10579 9647 7047 Blue 22
6 PM Sat 97 87 SW 12 10007 9124 6524 Blue 20
7 PM Sat 95 85 SW 12 9442 8813 6213 Blue 18
8 PM Sat 92 82 SW 12 8837 8473 5873 Blue 15
9 PM Sat 89 79 SW 12 8496 8134 5534 Blue 12
10 PM Sat 86 76 SW 12 8155 6997 4397 Blue 9
11 PM Sat 82 72 N 2 6396 4200 1600 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sun 79 69 N 2 4242 2600 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sun 76 66 N 2 1984 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 73 63 N 2 1683 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 72 62 N 2 1683 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 71 61 N 2 1683 2600 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com