Detailed Predictions for: Malibu - Castro Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 2600
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

18 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 56 46 N 25 1001 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 55 45 N 25 1001 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 55 45 N 25 1001 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 57 47 N 25 1001 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 60 51 N 25 1078 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 62 54 N 25 1936 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 65 58 NW 13 3204 2600 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Fri 68 62 NW 13 3979 3320 720 Blue 6
1 PM Fri 70 64 NW 13 5284 3560 960 Blue 8
2 PM Fri 71 64 NW 13 5284 3560 960 Blue 8
3 PM Fri 69 61 NW 13 3564 3200 600 Blue 5
4 PM Fri 69 60 NW 13 3444 3068 468 Blue 4
5 PM Fri 66 56 NW 13 2500 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 64 54 NW 13 1936 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 62 52 NW 13 1366 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 61 51 NW 13 1078 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 61 51 NW 13 1078 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 60 50 NW 13 1001 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 60 50 N 10 1001 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 59 49 N 10 1001 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 60 50 N 10 1001 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 59 49 NE 6 1001 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 57 47 NE 6 1001 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 57 47 NE 6 1001 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 56 46 N 5 1001 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 55 45 N 5 1001 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 55 45 N 5 1001 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 57 47 N 5 1001 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 60 51 N 5 1078 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 62 54 N 5 1936 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 66 59 NW 6 3324 2600 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Sat 69 63 NW 6 4516 3440 840 Blue 7
1 PM Sat 71 65 NW 6 5391 3952 1352 Blue 9
2 PM Sat 72 66 NW 6 5508 4480 1880 Blue 10
3 PM Sat 71 64 NW 6 5284 3560 960 Blue 8
4 PM Sat 71 62 NW 6 3979 3320 720 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 68 58 N 14 3204 2600 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sat 66 56 N 14 2500 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 65 55 N 14 2219 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 63 53 N 14 1652 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 63 53 N 14 1652 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 62 52 N 14 1366 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 63 53 N 24 1652 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 61 51 N 24 1078 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 62 52 N 24 1366 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 62 52 N 24 1366 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 60 50 N 24 1001 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 59 49 N 24 1001 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 59 49 N 29 1001 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 58 48 N 29 1001 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 58 48 N 29 1001 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 60 50 N 29 1001 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 63 54 N 29 1936 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 66 58 N 29 3204 2600 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 70 63 N 20 4516 3440 840 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 73 67 N 20 5686 5152 2552 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 75 69 N 20 6040 5490 2890 Blue 13
2 PM Sun 76 70 N 20 6191 5667 3067 Blue 14
3 PM Sun 75 68 N 20 5863 5381 2781 Blue 12
4 PM Sun 75 66 N 20 5508 4480 1880 Blue 10
5 PM Sun 72 62 N 20 3979 3320 720 Blue 6
6 PM Sun 70 60 N 20 3444 3068 468 Blue 4
7 PM Sun 69 59 N 20 3324 2600 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sun 68 58 N 20 3204 2600 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sun 68 58 N 20 3204 2600 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 67 57 N 20 3081 2600 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sun 67 57 NE 14 3081 2600 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Mon 66 56 NE 14 2500 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 67 57 NE 14 3081 2600 0 Blue 1
2 AM Mon 66 56 NE 14 2500 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 65 55 NE 14 2219 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 64 54 NE 14 1936 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 64 54 NE 14 1936 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 63 53 NE 14 1652 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 63 53 NE 14 1652 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 65 55 NE 14 2219 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 68 59 NE 14 3324 2600 0 Blue 3
10 AM Mon 70 62 NE 14 3979 3320 720 Blue 6
11 AM Mon 74 67 N 16 5686 5152 2552 Blue 11
12 Noon Mon 77 71 N 16 6268 5843 3243 Blue 15
1 PM Mon 79 73 N 16 6534 6181 3581 Blue 17
2 PM Mon 80 74 N 16 6792 6258 3658 Blue 18
3 PM Mon 78 71 N 16 6268 5843 3243 Blue 15
4 PM Mon 78 69 N 16 6040 5490 2890 Blue 13
5 PM Mon 75 65 N 12 5391 3952 1352 Blue 9
6 PM Mon 73 63 N 12 4516 3440 840 Blue 7
7 PM Mon 71 61 N 12 3564 3200 600 Blue 5
8 PM Mon 70 60 N 12 3444 3068 468 Blue 4
9 PM Mon 70 60 N 12 3444 3068 468 Blue 4
10 PM Mon 69 59 N 12 3324 2600 0 Blue 3
11 PM Mon 69 59 NE 13 3324 2600 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Tue 68 58 NE 13 3204 2600 0 Blue 2
1 AM Tue 69 59 NE 13 3324 2600 0 Blue 3
2 AM Tue 68 58 NE 13 3204 2600 0 Blue 2
3 AM Tue 66 56 NE 13 2500 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 66 56 NE 13 2500 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 65 55 NE 10 2219 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 64 54 NE 10 1936 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 64 54 NE 10 1936 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 66 56 NE 10 2500 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 69 60 NE 10 3444 3068 468 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 72 64 NE 10 5284 3560 960 Blue 8
11 AM Tue 76 69 W 10 6040 5490 2890 Blue 13
12 Noon Tue 79 73 W 10 6534 6181 3581 Blue 17
1 PM Tue 81 75 W 10 7048 6335 3735 Blue 19
2 PM Tue 82 76 W 10 7303 6499 3899 Blue 20
3 PM Tue 80 73 W 10 6534 6181 3581 Blue 17
4 PM Tue 80 71 W 10 6268 5843 3243 Blue 15
5 PM Tue 76 66 W 10 5508 4480 1880 Blue 10
6 PM Tue 73 63 W 10 4516 3440 840 Blue 7
7 PM Tue 71 61 W 10 3564 3200 600 Blue 5
8 PM Tue 69 59 W 10 3324 2600 0 Blue 3
9 PM Tue 69 59 W 10 3324 2600 0 Blue 3
10 PM Tue 68 58 W 10 3204 2600 0 Blue 2
11 PM Tue 68 58 N 6 3204 2600 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Wed 67 57 N 6 3081 2600 0 Blue 1
1 AM Wed 68 58 N 6 3204 2600 0 Blue 2
2 AM Wed 67 57 N 6 3081 2600 0 Blue 1
3 AM Wed 64 54 N 6 1936 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 64 54 N 6 1936 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 63 53 N 6 1652 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 62 52 N 6 1366 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 62 52 N 6 1366 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 64 54 N 6 1936 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 67 58 N 6 3204 2600 0 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 69 61 N 6 3564 3200 600 Blue 5
11 AM Wed 73 66 W 8 5508 4480 1880 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 76 70 W 8 6191 5667 3067 Blue 14
1 PM Wed 78 72 W 8 6345 6019 3419 Blue 16
2 PM Wed 79 73 W 8 6534 6181 3581 Blue 17
3 PM Wed 77 70 W 8 6191 5667 3067 Blue 14
4 PM Wed 77 68 W 8 5863 5381 2781 Blue 12
5 PM Wed 74 64 W 8 5284 3560 960 Blue 8
6 PM Wed 70 60 W 8 3444 3068 468 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 69 59 W 8 3324 2600 0 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 67 57 W 8 3081 2600 0 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 67 57 W 8 3081 2600 0 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 66 56 W 8 2500 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 66 56 NE 7 2500 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 65 55 NE 7 2219 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 66 56 NE 7 2500 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 65 55 NE 7 2219 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 62 52 NE 7 1366 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 62 52 NE 7 1366 2600 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com