Detailed Predictions for: Malibu - Castro Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 2600
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

5 DEC 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Thu 48 38 E 6 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 48 38 E 6 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 49 39 E 6 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 48 38 SE 10 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 50 40 SE 10 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 50 40 SE 10 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 50 40 SE 9 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 51 41 SE 9 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 53 43 SE 9 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 55 45 SE 3 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 55 45 SE 3 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 55 45 SE 3 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 54 44 E 13 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 53 43 E 13 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 53 43 E 13 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 52 42 NE 16 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 51 41 NE 16 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 52 42 NE 16 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 51 41 E 20 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 50 40 E 20 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 51 41 E 20 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 50 40 NE 18 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 51 41 NE 18 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 51 41 NE 18 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 51 41 NE 15 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 51 41 NE 15 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 51 41 NE 15 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 50 40 E 17 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 52 42 E 17 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 52 42 E 17 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 52 42 SE 14 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 53 43 SE 14 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 55 45 SE 14 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 57 47 SE 12 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 57 47 SE 12 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 57 47 SE 12 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 56 46 SE 16 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 55 45 SE 16 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 54 44 SE 16 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 53 43 SE 16 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 53 43 SE 16 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 53 43 SE 16 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 53 43 SE 16 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 51 41 SE 16 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 52 42 SE 16 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 51 41 SE 16 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 52 42 SE 16 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 52 42 SE 16 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 52 42 SE 12 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 52 42 SE 12 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 52 42 SE 12 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 51 41 SE 12 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 53 43 SE 12 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 52 42 SE 12 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 53 43 SE 12 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 53 43 SE 12 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 55 45 SE 12 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 57 47 SE 12 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 57 47 SE 12 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 57 47 SE 12 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 55 45 SE 10 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 54 44 SE 10 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 54 44 SE 10 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 52 42 SE 10 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 52 42 SE 10 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 52 42 SE 10 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 52 42 SE 8 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 50 40 SE 8 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 51 41 SE 8 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 50 40 SE 8 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 51 41 SE 8 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 51 41 SE 8 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 51 41 NW 6 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 51 41 NW 6 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 51 41 NW 6 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 50 40 NW 6 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 52 42 NW 6 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 51 41 NW 6 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 52 42 W 14 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 52 42 W 14 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 54 44 W 14 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 56 46 W 14 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 56 46 W 14 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 56 46 W 14 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 55 45 W 15 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 54 44 W 15 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 53 43 W 15 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 52 42 W 15 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 52 42 W 15 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 52 42 W 15 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 52 42 N 6 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 50 40 N 6 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 51 41 N 6 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 50 40 N 6 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 51 41 N 6 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 51 41 N 6 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 51 41 N 8 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 51 41 N 8 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 51 41 N 8 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 50 40 N 8 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 53 43 N 8 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 52 42 N 8 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 54 45 N 9 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 54 46 N 9 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 57 49 N 9 1709 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 60 52 N 9 3219 2600 0 Blue 1
2 PM Mon 60 51 N 9 2773 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 60 50 N 9 2270 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 58 48 NW 9 1129 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 56 46 NW 9 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 55 45 NW 9 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 53 43 NW 9 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 52 42 NW 9 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 53 43 NW 9 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 52 42 N 7 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 49 39 N 7 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 50 40 N 7 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 49 39 N 7 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 50 40 N 7 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 51 41 N 7 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 50 40 NE 7 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 51 41 NE 7 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 51 41 NE 7 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 49 39 NE 7 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 53 43 NE 7 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 53 44 NE 7 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 55 46 NW 7 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 55 47 NW 7 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 61 53 NW 7 3561 2600 0 White 2
1 PM Tue 65 57 NW 7 4445 4062 1462 White 6
2 PM Tue 65 56 NW 7 4225 3638 1038 White 5
3 PM Tue 65 55 NW 7 4004 3207 607 White 4
4 PM Tue 62 52 NW 7 3219 2600 0 Blue 1
5 PM Tue 60 50 NW 7 2270 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 59 49 NW 7 1709 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 56 46 NW 7 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 55 45 NW 7 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 56 46 NW 7 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 55 45 N 6 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 51 41 N 6 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 53 43 N 6 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 51 41 N 6 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 53 43 N 6 1086 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 53 43 N 6 1086 2600 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com