Detailed Predictions for: Malibu - Castro Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 2600
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

14 DEC 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 54 44 E 12 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 54 44 E 12 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 55 45 E 12 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 54 44 E 12 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 55 45 E 12 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 56 46 E 12 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 57 47 SE 12 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 58 48 SE 12 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 59 49 SE 12 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 59 49 SE 8 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 59 49 SE 8 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 59 49 SE 8 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 58 48 E 5 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 56 46 E 5 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 55 45 E 5 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 54 44 SE 8 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 53 43 SE 8 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 52 42 SE 8 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 52 42 SE 3 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 51 41 SE 3 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 51 41 SE 3 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 50 40 SE 6 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 50 40 SE 6 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 50 40 SE 6 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 50 40 SE 6 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 50 40 SE 6 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 50 40 SE 6 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 50 40 SE 7 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 51 41 SE 7 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 54 44 SE 7 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 56 47 SE 7 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 58 50 SE 7 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 60 52 SE 7 2373 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 61 53 E 5 2483 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 61 52 E 5 2373 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 61 51 E 5 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 60 50 E 6 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 58 48 E 6 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 57 47 E 6 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 56 46 E 6 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 55 45 E 6 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 54 44 E 6 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 54 44 E 6 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 53 43 E 6 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 53 43 E 6 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 52 42 E 6 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 52 42 E 6 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 52 42 E 6 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 52 42 E 6 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 52 42 E 6 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 52 42 E 6 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 52 42 E 6 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 53 43 E 6 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 55 45 E 6 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 56 47 S 7 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 58 49 S 7 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 59 50 S 7 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 60 51 S 7 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 60 51 S 7 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 60 50 S 7 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 59 49 SE 8 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 55 45 SE 8 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 55 45 SE 8 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 53 43 SE 8 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 52 42 SE 8 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 51 41 SE 8 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 50 40 SE 6 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 49 39 SE 6 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 49 39 SE 6 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 49 39 SE 6 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 48 38 SE 6 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 48 38 SE 6 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 48 38 SE 9 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 48 38 SE 9 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 49 39 SE 9 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 48 38 SE 9 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 49 39 SE 9 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 50 40 SE 9 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 51 41 W 6 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 52 42 W 6 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 54 45 W 6 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 54 44 W 6 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 54 44 W 6 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 54 44 W 6 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 53 43 W 8 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 51 41 W 8 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 50 40 W 8 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 50 40 W 8 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 49 39 W 8 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 48 38 W 8 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 47 37 N 6 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 47 37 N 6 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 47 37 N 6 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 46 36 N 6 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 46 36 N 6 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 46 36 N 6 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 46 36 N 7 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 46 36 N 7 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 46 36 N 7 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 46 36 N 7 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 47 37 N 7 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 50 40 N 7 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 52 43 N 7 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 55 47 N 7 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 57 49 N 7 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 57 49 N 7 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 58 49 N 7 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 58 48 N 7 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 57 47 NW 8 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 56 46 NW 8 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 55 45 NW 8 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 55 45 NW 8 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 54 44 NW 8 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 54 44 NW 8 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 53 43 N 8 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 53 43 N 8 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 52 42 N 8 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 52 42 N 8 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 52 42 N 8 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 52 42 N 8 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 52 42 N 8 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 52 42 N 8 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 52 42 N 8 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 52 42 N 8 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 54 44 N 8 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 58 49 N 8 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 61 52 NE 7 2373 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 65 57 NE 7 2902 2600 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Wed 69 61 NE 7 3387 2993 393 Blue 6
1 PM Wed 69 61 NE 7 3387 2993 393 Blue 6
2 PM Wed 70 61 NE 7 3387 2993 393 Blue 6
3 PM Wed 70 60 NE 7 3179 2901 301 Blue 5
4 PM Wed 68 58 NW 7 2994 2717 117 Blue 3
5 PM Wed 64 54 NW 7 2594 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 63 53 NW 7 2483 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 61 51 NW 7 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 60 50 NW 7 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 58 48 NW 7 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 57 47 N 8 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 56 46 N 8 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 55 45 N 8 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 55 45 N 8 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 45 N 8 2287 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 54 44 N 8 2287 2600 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com