Detailed Predictions for: Malibu - Castro Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 2600
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 60 50 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 60 50 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 61 51 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 64 54 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 66 58 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 67 60 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 69 65 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 70 67 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 73 70 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 73 69 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 73 68 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 72 65 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 72 63 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 71 61 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 69 59 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 67 57 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 65 55 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 65 55 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 64 54 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 64 54 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 63 53 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 62 52 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 61 51 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 61 51 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 60 50 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 60 50 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 61 51 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 63 53 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 64 56 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 66 59 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 67 63 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 68 65 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 70 67 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 70 66 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 70 65 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 69 62 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 69 60 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 68 58 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 67 57 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 65 55 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 64 54 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 63 53 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 62 52 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 62 52 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 62 52 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 61 51 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 60 50 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 60 50 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 59 49 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 59 49 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 60 50 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 62 52 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 63 54 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 64 56 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 65 60 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 66 62 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 68 64 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 68 63 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 68 62 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 67 60 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 67 58 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 66 56 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 65 55 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 63 53 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 62 52 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 61 51 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 61 51 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 61 51 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 60 50 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 60 50 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 59 49 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 59 49 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 58 48 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 58 48 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 58 48 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 60 50 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 62 52 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 62 52 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 64 58 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 64 59 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 66 61 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 66 61 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 66 60 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 65 57 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 64 55 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 64 54 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 62 52 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 59 49 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 58 48 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 57 47 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 56 46 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 56 46 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 55 45 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 54 44 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 53 43 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 53 43 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 52 42 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 52 42 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 52 42 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 54 44 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 55 45 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 55 45 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 56 48 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 57 50 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 58 51 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 58 51 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 58 50 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 57 48 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 57 47 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 56 46 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 55 45 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 53 43 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 52 42 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 51 41 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 51 41 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 51 41 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 50 40 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 50 40 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 49 39 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 49 39 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 48 38 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 48 38 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 48 38 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 50 40 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 52 42 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 52 42 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 54 49 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 54 49 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 56 52 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 56 51 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 56 50 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 55 48 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 55 46 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 54 44 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 53 43 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 52 42 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 51 41 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 50 40 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 50 40 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 50 40 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 49 39 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 48 38 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 48 38 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 48 38 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com