Detailed Predictions for: Malibu - Castro Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 2600
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

21 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Tue 63 53 NE 17 988 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 63 53 NE 17 988 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 65 55 NE 17 988 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 67 57 NE 20 988 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 71 61 NE 20 988 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 76 66 NE 20 1701 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 80 71 NE 16 4204 2600 0 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 81 73 NE 16 5500 3619 1019 Blue 5
12 Noon Tue 81 73 NE 16 5500 3619 1019 Blue 5
1 PM Tue 82 73 N 7 5500 3619 1019 Blue 5
2 PM Tue 84 75 N 7 6489 4710 2110 Blue 7
3 PM Tue 86 76 N 7 6965 5451 2851 Blue 8
4 PM Tue 88 78 N 8 7901 6426 3826 Blue 10
5 PM Tue 88 78 N 8 7901 6426 3826 Blue 10
6 PM Tue 86 76 N 8 6965 5451 2851 Blue 8
7 PM Tue 83 73 E 8 5500 3619 1019 Blue 5
8 PM Tue 81 71 E 8 4204 2600 0 Blue 3
9 PM Tue 80 70 E 8 3641 2600 0 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 79 69 E 7 3059 2600 0 Blue 1
11 PM Tue 78 68 E 7 2523 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 77 67 E 7 2115 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 76 66 NE 10 1701 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 76 66 NE 10 1701 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 75 65 NE 10 1281 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 74 64 NE 14 988 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 72 62 NE 14 988 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 71 61 NE 14 988 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 72 62 NE 18 988 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 75 65 NE 18 1281 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 80 71 NE 18 4204 2600 0 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 84 76 NE 20 6965 5451 2851 Blue 8
11 AM Wed 86 79 NE 20 8155 6896 4296 Blue 11
12 Noon Wed 86 79 NE 20 8155 6896 4296 Blue 11
1 PM Wed 86 78 NE 8 7901 6426 3826 Blue 10
2 PM Wed 87 79 NE 8 8155 6896 4296 Blue 11
3 PM Wed 89 80 NE 8 8371 7356 4756 Blue 12
4 PM Wed 90 80 NE 9 8371 7356 4756 Blue 12
5 PM Wed 90 80 NE 9 8371 7356 4756 Blue 12
6 PM Wed 89 79 NE 9 8155 6896 4296 Blue 11
7 PM Wed 87 77 E 8 7433 5944 3344 Blue 9
8 PM Wed 86 76 E 8 6965 5451 2851 Blue 8
9 PM Wed 85 75 E 8 6489 4710 2110 Blue 7
10 PM Wed 83 73 SE 9 5500 3619 1019 Blue 5
11 PM Wed 82 72 SE 9 4750 3047 447 Blue 4
12 Midnight Thu 81 71 SE 9 4204 2600 0 Blue 3
1 AM Thu 81 71 E 7 4204 2600 0 Blue 3
2 AM Thu 80 70 E 7 3641 2600 0 Blue 2
3 AM Thu 79 69 E 7 3059 2600 0 Blue 1
4 AM Thu 78 68 NE 5 2523 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 77 67 NE 5 2115 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 77 67 NE 5 2115 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 78 68 NE 5 2523 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 80 70 NE 5 3641 2600 0 Blue 2
9 AM Thu 83 74 NE 5 6001 4173 1573 Blue 6
10 AM Thu 85 77 N 6 7433 5944 3344 Blue 9
11 AM Thu 86 78 N 6 7901 6426 3826 Blue 10
12 Noon Thu 86 78 N 6 7901 6426 3826 Blue 10
1 PM Thu 86 78 N 6 7901 6426 3826 Blue 10
2 PM Thu 86 77 N 6 7433 5944 3344 Blue 9
3 PM Thu 86 76 N 6 6965 5451 2851 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 86 76 N 7 6965 5451 2851 Blue 8
5 PM Thu 86 76 N 7 6965 5451 2851 Blue 8
6 PM Thu 85 75 N 7 6489 4710 2110 Blue 7
7 PM Thu 84 74 N 7 6001 4173 1573 Blue 6
8 PM Thu 82 72 N 7 4750 3047 447 Blue 4
9 PM Thu 80 70 N 7 3641 2600 0 Blue 2
10 PM Thu 78 68 N 7 2523 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 76 66 N 7 1701 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 75 65 N 7 1281 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 74 64 N 7 988 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 73 63 N 7 988 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 72 62 N 7 988 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 70 60 N 13 988 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 68 58 N 13 988 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 66 56 N 13 988 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 66 56 N 13 988 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 69 59 N 13 988 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 74 65 N 13 1281 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 78 70 SW 9 3641 2600 0 Blue 2
11 AM Fri 81 73 SW 9 5500 3619 1019 Blue 5
12 Noon Fri 82 74 SW 9 6001 4173 1573 Blue 6
1 PM Fri 82 74 SW 9 6001 4173 1573 Blue 6
2 PM Fri 81 72 SW 9 4750 3047 447 Blue 4
3 PM Fri 79 69 SW 9 3059 2600 0 Blue 1
4 PM Fri 76 66 SW 8 1701 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 74 64 SW 8 988 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 73 63 SW 8 988 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 71 61 SW 8 988 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 70 60 SW 8 988 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 68 58 SW 8 988 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 67 57 SE 5 988 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 65 55 SE 5 988 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 64 54 SE 5 988 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 63 53 SE 5 988 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 62 52 SE 5 988 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 61 51 SE 5 988 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 60 50 SE 7 988 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 60 50 SE 7 988 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 60 50 SE 7 988 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 62 52 SE 7 988 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 63 53 SE 7 988 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 65 56 SE 7 988 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 68 60 SE 9 988 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 71 63 SE 9 988 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 73 65 SE 9 1281 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 76 68 SE 9 2523 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 77 68 SE 9 2523 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 77 67 SE 9 2115 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 76 66 SE 8 1701 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 75 65 SE 8 1281 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 72 62 SE 8 988 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 69 59 SE 8 988 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 66 56 SE 8 988 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 64 54 SE 8 988 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 61 51 SE 5 988 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 60 50 SE 5 988 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 59 49 SE 5 988 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 58 48 SE 5 988 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 58 48 SE 5 988 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 58 48 SE 5 988 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 58 48 E 3 988 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 57 47 E 3 988 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 57 47 E 3 988 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 57 47 E 3 988 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 57 47 E 3 988 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 58 48 E 3 988 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 59 50 SW 14 988 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 62 53 SW 14 988 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 65 57 SW 14 988 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 68 59 SW 14 988 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 71 62 SW 14 988 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 73 63 SW 14 988 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 73 63 SW 13 988 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 73 63 SW 13 988 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 72 62 SW 13 988 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 70 60 SW 13 988 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 69 59 SW 13 988 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 68 58 SW 13 988 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 66 56 W 3 988 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 65 55 W 3 988 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 64 54 W 3 988 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 63 53 W 3 988 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 62 52 W 3 988 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 60 50 W 3 988 2600 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com