Detailed Predictions for: Malibu - Castro Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 2600
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

4 DEC 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 47 37 NE 26 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 47 37 NE 26 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 47 37 NE 26 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 46 36 NE 25 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 51 41 NE 25 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 54 45 NE 25 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 57 48 NE 21 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 61 53 NE 21 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 64 56 NE 21 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 66 58 NW 6 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 67 58 NW 6 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 67 57 NW 6 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 64 54 NW 6 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 61 51 NW 6 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 60 50 NW 6 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 60 50 NW 6 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 59 49 NW 6 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 58 48 NW 6 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 56 46 N 16 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 53 43 N 16 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 54 44 N 16 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 52 42 N 16 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 51 41 N 16 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 50 40 N 16 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 50 40 NE 16 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 50 40 NE 16 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 51 41 NE 16 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 49 39 NE 17 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 53 43 NE 17 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 56 46 NE 17 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 59 50 NE 16 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 62 54 NE 16 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 65 57 NE 16 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 66 58 N 10 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 67 58 N 10 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 67 57 N 10 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 64 54 N 13 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 61 51 N 13 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 60 50 N 13 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 60 50 N 10 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 59 49 N 10 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 58 48 N 10 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 56 46 N 13 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 53 43 N 13 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 54 44 N 13 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 52 42 N 13 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 51 41 N 13 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 50 40 N 13 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 50 40 NE 10 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 50 40 NE 10 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 51 41 NE 10 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 49 39 N 14 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 53 43 N 14 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 56 46 N 14 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 59 50 E 2 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 62 54 E 2 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 65 57 E 2 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 66 57 E 2 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 67 58 E 2 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 67 57 E 2 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 65 55 NW 9 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 62 52 NW 9 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 62 52 NW 9 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 61 51 N 8 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 61 51 N 8 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 60 50 N 8 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 59 49 NE 9 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 56 46 NE 9 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 57 47 NE 9 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 55 45 NE 17 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 54 44 NE 17 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 54 44 NE 17 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 54 44 NE 17 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 54 44 NE 17 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 54 44 NE 17 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 53 43 NE 17 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 57 47 NE 17 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 59 49 NE 17 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 61 52 NE 18 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 63 54 NE 18 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 66 58 NE 18 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 67 58 NE 18 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 68 59 NE 18 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 68 58 NE 18 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 67 57 NE 18 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 65 55 NE 18 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 64 54 NE 18 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 64 54 NE 18 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 63 53 NE 18 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 63 53 NE 18 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 62 52 NE 18 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 60 50 NE 18 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 61 51 NE 18 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 60 50 NE 25 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 59 49 NE 25 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 59 49 NE 25 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 58 48 NE 25 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 59 49 NE 25 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 59 49 NE 25 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 58 48 NE 25 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 61 51 NE 25 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 63 53 NE 25 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 65 56 NE 20 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 67 59 NE 20 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 69 61 NE 20 2181 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 70 61 NE 18 2181 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 71 62 NE 18 2966 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 71 61 NE 18 2181 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 69 59 N 15 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 66 56 N 15 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 65 55 N 15 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 64 54 N 12 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 64 54 N 12 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 63 53 N 12 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 61 51 N 13 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 59 49 N 13 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 59 49 N 13 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 58 48 N 12 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 57 47 N 12 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 56 46 N 12 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 56 46 N 12 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 56 46 N 12 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 56 46 N 12 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 55 45 NE 14 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 58 48 NE 14 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 60 50 NE 14 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 63 54 NE 12 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 65 57 NE 12 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 67 59 NE 12 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 68 60 SE 12 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 69 60 SE 12 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 69 59 SE 12 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 67 57 W 10 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 64 54 W 10 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 63 53 W 10 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 62 52 NW 9 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 62 52 NW 9 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 61 51 NW 9 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 59 49 NE 9 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 57 47 NE 9 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 57 47 NE 9 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 56 46 NE 9 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 45 NE 9 2077 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 54 44 NE 9 2077 2600 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com