Detailed Predictions for: Malibu - Castro Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 2600
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

19 JUN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 58 48 N 7 1804 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 58 48 N 7 1804 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 61 51 N 7 1804 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 64 55 N 7 1983 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 68 61 N 7 2328 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 71 66 N 7 2593 2600 0 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 74 71 NW 6 3740 2667 67 Blue 6
12 Noon Tue 78 76 NW 6 6269 4858 2258 Blue 11
1 PM Tue 79 77 NW 6 6433 5672 3072 Blue 12
2 PM Tue 80 78 SW 9 6596 6086 3486 Blue 13
3 PM Tue 81 77 SW 9 6433 5672 3072 Blue 12
4 PM Tue 81 75 SW 9 6105 4296 1696 Blue 10
5 PM Tue 80 73 W 9 4887 3111 511 Blue 8
6 PM Tue 80 71 W 9 3740 2667 67 Blue 6
7 PM Tue 78 68 W 9 2667 2600 0 Blue 3
8 PM Tue 76 66 NE 6 2593 2600 0 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 74 64 NE 6 2501 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 73 63 NE 6 2443 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 72 62 NE 7 2385 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 72 62 NE 7 2385 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 72 62 NE 7 2385 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 71 61 NE 7 2328 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 71 61 NE 7 2328 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 70 60 NE 7 2270 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 70 60 NE 7 2270 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 70 60 NE 7 2270 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 73 63 NE 7 2443 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 76 67 NE 7 2630 2600 0 Blue 2
9 AM Wed 80 73 NE 7 4887 3111 511 Blue 8
10 AM Wed 83 78 NE 7 6596 6086 3486 Blue 13
11 AM Wed 87 84 NW 3 7521 7306 4706 Blue 19
12 Noon Wed 91 89 NW 3 7862 7646 5046 Blue 24
1 PM Wed 92 90 NW 3 7930 7714 5114 Blue 25
2 PM Wed 93 91 SW 13 8043 7782 5182 Blue 26
3 PM Wed 94 90 SW 13 7930 7714 5114 Blue 25
4 PM Wed 93 87 SW 13 7725 7510 4910 Blue 22
5 PM Wed 92 85 W 12 7589 7374 4774 Blue 20
6 PM Wed 91 82 W 12 7385 6737 4137 Blue 17
7 PM Wed 87 77 W 12 6433 5672 3072 Blue 12
8 PM Wed 81 71 W 9 3740 2667 67 Blue 6
9 PM Wed 77 67 W 9 2630 2600 0 Blue 2
10 PM Wed 75 65 W 9 2556 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 73 63 NE 6 2443 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 74 64 NE 6 2501 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 72 62 NE 6 2385 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 70 60 NE 6 2270 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 70 60 NE 6 2270 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 68 58 NE 6 2155 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 69 59 NE 3 2213 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 68 58 NE 3 2155 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 70 60 NE 3 2270 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 73 64 NE 3 2501 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 76 69 NE 3 2710 2600 0 Blue 4
10 AM Thu 78 73 NE 3 4887 3111 511 Blue 8
11 AM Thu 81 78 NW 2 6596 6086 3486 Blue 13
12 Noon Thu 84 82 NW 2 7385 6737 4137 Blue 17
1 PM Thu 86 85 NW 2 7589 7374 4774 Blue 20
2 PM Thu 86 84 S 13 7521 7306 4706 Blue 19
3 PM Thu 87 84 S 13 7521 7306 4706 Blue 19
4 PM Thu 86 81 S 13 7316 6575 3975 Blue 16
5 PM Thu 86 79 SW 12 6760 6249 3649 Blue 14
6 PM Thu 84 75 SW 12 6105 4296 1696 Blue 10
7 PM Thu 82 72 SW 12 4331 2707 107 Blue 7
8 PM Thu 77 67 SW 12 2630 2600 0 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 74 64 SW 12 2501 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 72 62 SW 12 2385 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 71 61 NE 3 2328 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 71 61 NE 3 2328 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 70 60 NE 3 2270 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 69 59 NE 3 2213 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 68 58 NE 3 2155 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 67 57 NE 3 2098 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 67 57 NE 3 2098 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 67 57 NE 3 2098 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 69 59 NE 3 2213 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 72 63 NE 3 2443 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 76 69 NE 3 2710 2600 0 Blue 4
10 AM Fri 79 74 NE 3 5770 3714 1114 Blue 9
11 AM Fri 82 79 SW 15 6760 6249 3649 Blue 14
12 Noon Fri 85 83 SW 15 7453 7042 4442 Blue 18
1 PM Fri 86 85 SW 15 7589 7374 4774 Blue 20
2 PM Fri 87 85 SW 15 7589 7374 4774 Blue 20
3 PM Fri 88 85 SW 15 7589 7374 4774 Blue 20
4 PM Fri 87 82 SW 15 7385 6737 4137 Blue 17
5 PM Fri 87 80 SW 14 7100 6412 3812 Blue 15
6 PM Fri 85 76 SW 14 6269 4858 2258 Blue 11
7 PM Fri 82 72 SW 14 4331 2707 107 Blue 7
8 PM Fri 77 67 SW 14 2630 2600 0 Blue 2
9 PM Fri 74 64 SW 14 2501 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 72 62 SW 14 2385 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 70 60 N 3 2270 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 71 61 N 3 2328 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 70 60 N 3 2270 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 68 58 N 3 2155 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 67 57 N 3 2098 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 66 56 N 3 2040 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 67 57 E 6 2098 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 66 56 E 6 2040 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 68 58 E 6 2155 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 71 62 E 6 2385 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 73 66 E 6 2593 2600 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 76 71 E 6 3740 2667 67 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 79 76 S 13 6269 4858 2258 Blue 11
12 Noon Sat 81 79 S 13 6760 6249 3649 Blue 14
1 PM Sat 83 81 S 13 7316 6575 3975 Blue 16
2 PM Sat 83 81 S 13 7316 6575 3975 Blue 16
3 PM Sat 84 80 S 13 7100 6412 3812 Blue 15
4 PM Sat 83 77 S 13 6433 5672 3072 Blue 12
5 PM Sat 83 76 S 10 6269 4858 2258 Blue 11
6 PM Sat 81 72 S 10 4331 2707 107 Blue 7
7 PM Sat 79 69 S 10 2710 2600 0 Blue 4
8 PM Sat 74 64 S 10 2501 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 71 61 S 10 2328 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 69 59 S 10 2213 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 68 58 E 9 2155 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 68 58 E 9 2155 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 67 57 E 9 2098 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 66 56 E 9 2040 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 65 55 E 9 1983 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 64 54 E 9 1925 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 64 54 E 9 1925 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 64 54 E 9 1925 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 66 56 E 9 2040 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 68 59 E 9 2213 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 71 64 E 9 2501 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 73 68 E 9 2667 2600 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 75 72 SE 12 4331 2707 107 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 78 76 SE 12 6269 4858 2258 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 79 77 SE 12 6433 5672 3072 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 80 78 SE 12 6596 6086 3486 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 80 76 SE 12 6269 4858 2258 Blue 11
4 PM Sun 79 73 SE 12 4887 3111 511 Blue 8
5 PM Sun 79 72 SE 12 4331 2707 107 Blue 7
6 PM Sun 77 68 SE 12 2667 2600 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sun 74 64 SE 12 2501 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 69 59 SE 12 2213 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 66 56 SE 12 2040 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 64 54 SE 12 1925 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 62 52 E 5 1811 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 63 53 E 5 1868 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 62 52 E 5 1811 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 60 50 E 5 1804 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 59 49 E 5 1804 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 58 48 E 5 1804 2600 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com