Detailed Predictions for: Malibu - Castro Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 2600
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

16 OCT 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 59 49 NE 28 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 59 49 NE 28 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 59 49 NE 28 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 60 50 NE 31 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 63 54 NE 31 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 67 59 NE 31 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 71 64 NE 25 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 73 67 NE 25 2754 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 74 69 NE 25 4368 2600 0 Blue 2
2 PM Tue 75 69 N 16 4368 2600 0 Blue 2
3 PM Tue 75 68 N 16 3590 2600 0 Blue 1
4 PM Tue 74 66 N 16 2439 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 71 61 N 13 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 69 59 N 13 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 65 55 N 13 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 64 54 NE 14 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 62 52 NE 14 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 61 51 NE 14 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 60 50 NE 14 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 60 50 NE 14 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 60 50 NE 14 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 60 50 NE 14 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 60 50 NE 14 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 60 50 NE 14 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 59 49 NE 14 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 59 49 NE 14 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 59 49 NE 14 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 60 50 NE 13 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 63 54 NE 13 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 67 59 NE 13 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 71 64 E 6 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 73 67 E 6 2754 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 74 68 E 6 3590 2600 0 Blue 1
2 PM Wed 75 69 NW 7 4368 2600 0 Blue 2
3 PM Wed 75 68 NW 7 3590 2600 0 Blue 1
4 PM Wed 74 65 NW 7 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 72 62 NW 7 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 69 59 NW 7 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 66 56 NW 7 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 65 55 NW 7 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 63 53 NW 7 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 62 52 NW 7 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 61 51 NE 8 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 61 51 NE 8 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 61 51 NE 8 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 61 51 NE 8 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 61 51 NE 8 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 61 51 NE 8 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 60 50 NE 12 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 60 50 NE 12 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 60 50 NE 12 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 61 51 NE 12 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 63 54 NE 12 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 67 59 NE 12 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 70 63 NE 5 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 72 66 NE 5 2439 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 73 68 NE 5 3590 2600 0 Blue 1
2 PM Thu 74 68 NE 5 3590 2600 0 Blue 1
3 PM Thu 74 67 NE 5 2754 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 73 65 NE 5 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 71 61 N 7 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 69 59 N 7 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 67 57 N 7 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 66 56 N 7 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 65 55 N 7 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 64 54 N 7 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 63 53 NE 12 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 63 53 NE 12 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 62 52 NE 12 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 63 53 NE 12 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 63 53 NE 12 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 63 53 NE 12 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 62 52 NE 13 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 62 52 NE 13 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 62 52 NE 13 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 63 53 NE 13 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 66 57 NE 13 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 70 62 NE 13 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 73 66 NE 15 2439 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 75 69 NE 15 4368 2600 0 Blue 2
1 PM Fri 76 71 NE 15 5926 3560 960 Blue 4
2 PM Fri 77 71 NE 15 5926 3560 960 Blue 4
3 PM Fri 77 70 NE 15 5017 2744 144 Blue 3
4 PM Fri 76 68 NE 15 3590 2600 0 Blue 1
5 PM Fri 74 64 N 10 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 72 62 N 10 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 69 59 N 10 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 68 58 N 10 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 66 56 N 10 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 65 55 N 10 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 64 54 NE 13 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 64 54 NE 13 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 63 53 NE 13 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 64 54 NE 13 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 64 54 NE 13 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 64 54 NE 13 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 63 53 NE 16 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 63 53 NE 16 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 63 53 NE 16 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 64 54 NE 16 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 66 57 NE 16 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 69 61 NE 16 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 71 64 NE 17 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 73 67 NE 17 2754 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 74 68 NE 17 3590 2600 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sat 74 67 NE 17 2754 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 74 66 NE 17 2439 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 74 65 NE 17 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 72 62 N 3 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 70 60 N 3 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 68 58 N 3 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 67 57 N 3 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 66 56 N 3 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 65 55 N 3 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 65 55 NE 10 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 65 55 NE 10 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 64 54 NE 10 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 65 55 NE 10 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 65 55 NE 10 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 65 55 NE 10 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 64 54 NE 12 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 64 54 NE 12 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 64 54 NE 12 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 65 55 NE 12 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 66 56 NE 12 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 68 60 NE 12 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 69 62 NE 5 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 70 63 NE 5 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 71 64 NE 5 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 71 64 NE 5 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 71 63 NE 5 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 71 62 NE 5 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 69 59 W 6 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 68 58 W 6 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 66 56 W 6 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 65 55 W 6 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 64 54 W 6 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 63 53 W 6 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 63 53 N 5 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 63 53 N 5 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 62 52 N 5 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 63 53 N 5 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 63 53 N 5 2382 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 63 53 N 5 2382 2600 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com