Detailed Predictions for: Malibu - Castro Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 2600
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

23 FEB 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 41 31 NW 14 810 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 41 31 NW 14 810 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 41 31 NW 14 810 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 41 31 NW 8 810 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 40 30 NW 8 810 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 40 31 NW 8 810 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 41 33 N 12 810 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 45 38 N 12 4596 2600 0 White 1
12 Noon Fri 51 45 N 12 6098 6098 3498 White 8
1 PM Fri 55 48 NW 14 6727 6727 4127 White 12
2 PM Fri 58 50 NW 14 7138 7138 4538 White 14
3 PM Fri 59 50 NW 14 7138 7138 4538 White 14
4 PM Fri 57 47 NW 16 6519 6519 3919 White 10
5 PM Fri 52 42 NW 16 5464 5464 2864 White 5
6 PM Fri 47 37 NW 16 3527 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 44 34 N 21 810 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 45 35 N 21 810 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 47 37 N 21 3527 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 48 38 NE 17 4596 2600 0 White 1
11 PM Fri 48 38 NE 17 4596 2600 0 White 1
12 Midnight Sat 48 38 NE 17 4596 2600 0 White 1
1 AM Sat 47 37 NE 17 3527 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 46 36 NE 17 810 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 46 36 NE 17 810 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 45 35 NE 17 810 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 45 35 NE 17 810 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 45 35 NE 17 810 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 45 35 N 12 810 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 46 36 N 12 810 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 47 38 N 12 4596 2600 0 White 1
10 AM Sat 48 41 N 8 5251 5251 2651 White 4
11 AM Sat 49 43 N 8 5676 5676 3076 White 6
12 Noon Sat 49 43 N 8 5676 5676 3076 White 6
1 PM Sat 50 44 W 12 5887 5887 3287 White 7
2 PM Sat 50 43 W 12 5676 5676 3076 White 6
3 PM Sat 51 43 W 12 5676 5676 3076 White 6
4 PM Sat 52 42 W 13 5464 5464 2864 White 5
5 PM Sat 53 43 W 13 5676 5676 3076 White 6
6 PM Sat 54 44 W 13 5887 5887 3287 White 7
7 PM Sat 55 45 N 6 6098 6098 3498 White 8
8 PM Sat 55 45 N 6 6098 6098 3498 White 8
9 PM Sat 54 44 N 6 5887 5887 3287 White 7
10 PM Sat 53 43 N 14 5676 5676 3076 White 6
11 PM Sat 52 42 N 14 5464 5464 2864 White 5
12 Midnight Sun 51 41 N 14 5251 5251 2651 White 4
1 AM Sun 51 41 N 20 5251 5251 2651 White 4
2 AM Sun 50 40 N 20 5037 3458 858 White 3
3 AM Sun 49 39 N 20 4813 2600 0 White 2
4 AM Sun 48 38 NE 24 4596 2600 0 White 1
5 AM Sun 47 37 NE 24 3527 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 46 36 NE 24 810 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 46 36 NE 22 810 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 46 36 NE 22 810 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 47 38 NE 22 4596 2600 0 White 1
10 AM Sun 49 42 NE 16 5464 5464 2864 White 5
11 AM Sun 53 47 NE 16 6519 6519 3919 White 10
12 Noon Sun 56 50 NE 16 7138 7138 4538 White 14
1 PM Sun 59 53 NW 8 7754 7754 5154 White 16
2 PM Sun 60 53 NW 8 7754 7754 5154 White 16
3 PM Sun 60 52 NW 8 7550 7550 4950 White 15
4 PM Sun 59 49 NW 9 6933 6933 4333 White 13
5 PM Sun 59 49 NW 9 6933 6933 4333 White 13
6 PM Sun 59 49 NW 9 6933 6933 4333 White 13
7 PM Sun 59 49 NW 9 6933 6933 4333 White 13
8 PM Sun 60 50 NW 9 7138 7138 4538 White 14
9 PM Sun 60 50 NW 9 7138 7138 4538 White 14
10 PM Sun 59 49 N 6 6933 6933 4333 White 13
11 PM Sun 58 48 N 6 6727 6727 4127 White 12
12 Midnight Mon 57 47 N 6 6519 6519 3919 White 10
1 AM Mon 56 46 N 6 6308 6308 3708 White 9
2 AM Mon 54 44 N 6 5887 5887 3287 White 7
3 AM Mon 53 43 N 6 5676 5676 3076 White 6
4 AM Mon 52 42 SW 5 5464 5464 2864 White 5
5 AM Mon 51 41 SW 5 5251 5251 2651 White 4
6 AM Mon 51 41 SW 5 5251 5251 2651 White 4
7 AM Mon 51 41 SW 5 5251 5251 2651 White 4
8 AM Mon 50 40 SW 5 5037 3458 858 White 3
9 AM Mon 50 41 SW 5 5251 5251 2651 White 4
10 AM Mon 49 41 W 16 5251 5251 2651 White 4
11 AM Mon 50 42 W 16 5464 5464 2864 White 5
12 Noon Mon 51 44 W 16 5887 5887 3287 White 7
1 PM Mon 52 44 W 16 5887 5887 3287 White 7
2 PM Mon 54 46 W 16 6308 6308 3708 White 9
3 PM Mon 55 46 W 16 6308 6308 3708 White 9
4 PM Mon 55 45 W 18 6098 6098 3498 White 8
5 PM Mon 54 44 W 18 5887 5887 3287 White 7
6 PM Mon 53 43 W 18 5676 5676 3076 White 6
7 PM Mon 51 41 W 18 5251 5251 2651 White 4
8 PM Mon 48 38 W 18 4596 2600 0 White 1
9 PM Mon 46 36 W 18 810 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 44 34 W 16 810 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 43 33 W 16 810 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 42 32 W 16 810 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 42 32 W 16 810 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 42 32 W 16 810 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 42 32 W 16 810 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 43 33 NW 9 810 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 43 33 NW 9 810 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 43 33 NW 9 810 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 44 34 NW 9 810 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 44 34 NW 9 810 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 45 35 NW 9 810 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 47 38 W 16 4596 2600 0 White 1
11 AM Tue 48 40 W 16 5037 3458 858 White 3
12 Noon Tue 50 42 W 16 5464 5464 2864 White 5
1 PM Tue 52 44 W 16 5887 5887 3287 White 7
2 PM Tue 54 45 W 16 6098 6098 3498 White 8
3 PM Tue 56 47 W 16 6519 6519 3919 White 10
4 PM Tue 57 47 NW 16 6519 6519 3919 White 10
5 PM Tue 58 48 NW 16 6727 6727 4127 White 12
6 PM Tue 58 48 NW 16 6727 6727 4127 White 12
7 PM Tue 58 48 NW 16 6727 6727 4127 White 12
8 PM Tue 57 47 NW 16 6519 6519 3919 White 10
9 PM Tue 56 46 NW 16 6308 6308 3708 White 9
10 PM Tue 54 44 N 6 5887 5887 3287 White 7
11 PM Tue 53 43 N 6 5676 5676 3076 White 6
12 Midnight Wed 51 41 N 6 5251 5251 2651 White 4
1 AM Wed 50 40 N 6 5037 3458 858 White 3
2 AM Wed 49 39 N 6 4813 2600 0 White 2
3 AM Wed 48 38 N 6 4596 2600 0 White 1
4 AM Wed 47 37 N 6 3527 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 45 35 N 6 810 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 44 34 N 6 810 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 43 33 N 6 810 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 43 33 N 6 810 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 43 34 N 6 810 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 44 36 SW 12 810 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 45 38 SW 12 4596 2600 0 White 1
12 Noon Wed 47 40 SW 12 5037 3458 858 White 3
1 PM Wed 49 42 SW 12 5464 5464 2864 White 5
2 PM Wed 50 42 SW 12 5464 5464 2864 White 5
3 PM Wed 52 43 SW 12 5676 5676 3076 White 6
4 PM Wed 53 43 SW 12 5676 5676 3076 White 6
5 PM Wed 54 44 SW 12 5887 5887 3287 White 7
6 PM Wed 54 44 SW 12 5887 5887 3287 White 7
7 PM Wed 54 44 SW 12 5887 5887 3287 White 7
8 PM Wed 51 41 SW 12 5251 5251 2651 White 4
9 PM Wed 49 39 SW 12 4813 2600 0 White 2
10 PM Wed 47 37 NE 6 3527 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 45 35 NE 6 810 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 45 35 NE 6 810 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 45 35 NE 6 810 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 45 35 NE 6 810 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 45 35 NE 6 810 2600 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com