Detailed Predictions for: Malibu - Castro Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 2600
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

19 AUG 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 71 61 NE 5 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 70 60 NE 5 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 70 60 NE 5 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 73 63 N 3 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 75 67 N 3 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 79 73 N 3 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 83 78 W 6 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 84 81 W 6 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 85 82 W 6 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 86 83 W 6 2222 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 85 81 W 6 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 85 79 W 6 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 86 78 SW 5 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 85 76 SW 5 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 81 71 SW 5 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 77 67 SW 5 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 76 66 SW 5 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 75 65 SW 5 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 74 64 E 5 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 74 64 E 5 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 73 63 E 5 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 73 63 E 6 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 72 62 E 6 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 71 61 E 6 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 71 61 E 3 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 70 60 E 3 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 70 60 E 3 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 72 62 SE 3 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 74 66 SE 3 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 77 71 SE 3 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 80 75 S 6 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 81 78 S 6 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 82 79 S 6 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 83 80 SW 6 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 83 79 SW 6 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 82 76 SW 6 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 83 75 SW 6 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 82 73 SW 6 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 79 69 SW 6 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 75 65 SW 6 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 73 63 SW 6 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 73 63 SW 6 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 72 62 SE 3 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 71 61 SE 3 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 71 61 SE 3 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 71 61 SE 3 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 70 60 SE 3 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 69 59 SE 3 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 69 59 SE 3 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 68 58 SE 3 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 68 58 SE 3 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 71 61 SE 3 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 73 65 SE 3 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 77 70 SE 3 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 81 76 SW 8 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 82 78 SW 8 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 83 79 SW 8 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 84 80 SW 8 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 84 79 SW 8 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 83 76 SW 8 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 84 76 SW 6 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 83 73 SW 6 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 80 70 SW 6 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 76 66 SW 6 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 74 64 SW 6 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 74 64 SW 6 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 73 63 S 2 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 72 62 S 2 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 72 62 S 2 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 72 62 S 2 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 71 61 S 2 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 70 60 S 2 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 70 60 E 3 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 69 59 E 3 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 69 59 E 3 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 72 62 E 3 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 75 67 E 3 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 79 73 E 3 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 82 77 SW 12 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 84 80 SW 12 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 85 81 SW 12 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 86 82 SW 12 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 85 80 SW 12 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 85 78 SW 12 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 86 78 SW 12 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 84 74 SW 12 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 81 71 SW 12 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 76 66 SW 12 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 74 64 SW 12 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 74 64 SW 12 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 73 63 W 6 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 72 62 W 6 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 71 61 W 6 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 71 61 W 6 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 70 60 W 6 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 69 59 W 6 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 69 59 N 3 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 68 58 N 3 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 68 58 N 3 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 71 61 N 3 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 73 65 N 3 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 77 70 N 3 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 81 76 SW 8 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 82 79 SW 8 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 83 80 SW 8 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 84 81 SW 8 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 83 79 SW 8 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 83 77 SW 8 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 84 76 SW 9 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 83 74 SW 9 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 79 69 SW 9 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 75 65 SW 9 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 74 64 SW 9 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 73 63 SW 9 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 72 62 W 6 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 72 62 W 6 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 71 61 W 6 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 71 61 W 6 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 70 60 W 6 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 69 59 W 6 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 69 59 SW 5 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 68 58 SW 5 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 68 58 SW 5 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 71 61 SW 5 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 73 65 SW 5 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 77 70 SW 5 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 80 75 SW 9 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 81 78 SW 9 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 82 79 SW 9 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 83 80 SW 9 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 83 78 SW 9 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 82 76 SW 9 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 83 75 SW 10 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 82 73 SW 10 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 79 69 SW 10 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 75 65 SW 10 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 73 63 SW 10 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 73 63 SW 10 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 72 62 W 6 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 71 61 W 6 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 71 61 W 6 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 71 61 W 6 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 70 60 W 6 2178 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 69 59 W 6 2178 2600 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com