Detailed Predictions for: Malibu - Castro Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 2600
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

15 JUN 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 56 46 E 5 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 55 45 E 5 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 56 46 E 5 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 58 48 W 2 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 60 50 W 2 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 62 52 W 2 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 65 61 W 5 2758 2600 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 67 64 W 5 2995 2757 157 Blue 8
1 PM Sat 68 65 W 5 3054 2836 236 Blue 9
2 PM Sat 69 66 SW 8 3112 2914 314 Blue 10
3 PM Sat 70 65 SW 8 3054 2836 236 Blue 9
4 PM Sat 69 63 SW 8 2916 2686 86 Blue 7
5 PM Sat 68 60 SW 9 2687 2600 0 Blue 4
6 PM Sat 67 58 SW 9 2582 2600 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sat 65 55 SW 9 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 63 53 SW 7 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 61 51 SW 7 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 61 51 SW 7 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 59 49 SE 6 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 59 49 SE 6 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 58 48 SE 6 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 57 47 SE 5 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 56 46 SE 5 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 56 46 SE 5 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 56 46 SE 3 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 55 45 SE 3 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 56 46 SE 3 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 58 48 SE 3 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 60 50 SE 3 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 62 52 SE 3 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 65 61 SW 6 2758 2600 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Sun 67 64 SW 6 2995 2757 157 Blue 8
1 PM Sun 68 65 SW 6 3054 2836 236 Blue 9
2 PM Sun 69 66 SW 7 3112 2914 314 Blue 10
3 PM Sun 70 65 SW 7 3054 2836 236 Blue 9
4 PM Sun 69 63 SW 7 2916 2686 86 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 68 60 SW 7 2687 2600 0 Blue 4
6 PM Sun 66 57 SW 7 2530 2600 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 65 55 SW 7 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 63 53 SW 7 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 61 51 SW 7 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 60 50 SW 7 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 59 49 SE 6 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 58 48 SE 6 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 58 48 SE 6 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 56 46 SE 6 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 56 46 SE 6 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 55 45 SE 6 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 55 45 E 3 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 54 44 E 3 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 55 45 E 3 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 56 46 E 3 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 59 49 E 3 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 60 50 E 3 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 63 60 S 7 2687 2600 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Mon 65 63 S 7 2916 2686 86 Blue 7
1 PM Mon 66 64 S 7 2995 2757 157 Blue 8
2 PM Mon 67 65 S 7 3054 2836 236 Blue 9
3 PM Mon 68 64 S 7 2995 2757 157 Blue 8
4 PM Mon 67 61 S 7 2758 2600 0 Blue 5
5 PM Mon 66 59 S 6 2634 2600 0 Blue 3
6 PM Mon 65 56 S 6 2471 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 64 54 S 6 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 62 52 S 6 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 60 50 S 6 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 60 50 S 6 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 59 49 SE 5 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 58 48 SE 5 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 58 48 SE 5 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 57 47 SE 5 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 56 46 SE 5 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 56 46 SE 5 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 56 46 SE 5 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 55 45 SE 5 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 56 46 SE 5 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 58 48 SE 5 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 60 50 SE 5 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 63 53 SE 5 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 66 63 SW 10 2916 2686 86 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 69 67 SW 10 3169 2993 393 Blue 11
1 PM Tue 70 68 SW 10 3227 3053 453 Blue 12
2 PM Tue 71 69 SW 10 3289 3110 510 Blue 13
3 PM Tue 72 68 SW 10 3227 3053 453 Blue 12
4 PM Tue 71 65 SW 10 3054 2836 236 Blue 9
5 PM Tue 70 63 SW 12 2916 2686 86 Blue 7
6 PM Tue 69 60 SW 12 2687 2600 0 Blue 4
7 PM Tue 67 57 SW 12 2530 2600 0 Blue 1
8 PM Tue 66 56 SW 12 2471 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 64 54 SW 12 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 63 53 SW 12 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 62 52 SW 6 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 62 52 SW 6 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 61 51 SW 6 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 60 50 SW 6 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 59 49 SW 6 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 59 49 SW 6 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 59 49 SW 7 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 58 48 SW 7 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 59 49 SW 7 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 61 51 SW 7 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 63 53 SW 7 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 65 55 SW 7 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 68 64 SW 14 2995 2757 157 Blue 8
12 Noon Wed 70 67 SW 14 3169 2993 393 Blue 11
1 PM Wed 71 68 SW 14 3227 3053 453 Blue 12
2 PM Wed 72 69 SW 14 3289 3110 510 Blue 13
3 PM Wed 73 68 SW 14 3227 3053 453 Blue 12
4 PM Wed 72 66 SW 14 3112 2914 314 Blue 10
5 PM Wed 71 63 SW 14 2916 2686 86 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 70 61 SW 14 2758 2600 0 Blue 5
7 PM Wed 68 58 SW 14 2582 2600 0 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 66 56 SW 14 2471 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 64 54 SW 14 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 64 54 SW 14 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 62 52 SW 8 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 62 52 SW 8 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 61 51 SW 8 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 60 50 SW 8 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 59 49 SW 8 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 59 49 SW 8 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 59 49 SW 7 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 58 48 SW 7 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 59 49 SW 7 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 61 51 SW 7 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 63 53 SW 7 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 65 55 SW 7 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 68 64 SW 15 2995 2757 157 Blue 8
12 Noon Thu 70 67 SW 15 3169 2993 393 Blue 11
1 PM Thu 71 68 SW 15 3227 3053 453 Blue 12
2 PM Thu 72 69 SW 15 3289 3110 510 Blue 13
3 PM Thu 73 68 SW 15 3227 3053 453 Blue 12
4 PM Thu 72 66 SW 15 3112 2914 314 Blue 10
5 PM Thu 71 63 SW 14 2916 2686 86 Blue 7
6 PM Thu 69 60 SW 14 2687 2600 0 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 68 58 SW 14 2582 2600 0 Blue 2
8 PM Thu 66 56 SW 14 2471 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 64 54 SW 14 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 63 53 SW 14 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 62 52 SW 10 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 61 51 SW 10 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 61 51 SW 10 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 59 49 SW 10 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 59 49 SW 10 2392 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 58 48 SW 10 2392 2600 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com