Detailed Predictions for: Malibu - Castro Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 2600
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

16 FEB 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sat 40 30 NW 9 801 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 40 30 NW 9 801 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 41 31 NW 9 801 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 41 31 NW 9 801 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 42 32 NW 9 801 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 44 35 NW 9 801 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 44 36 W 14 801 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 46 39 W 14 1504 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 47 40 W 14 2229 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 48 41 W 14 3098 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 48 40 W 14 2229 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 47 38 W 14 801 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 47 37 W 14 801 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 46 36 W 14 801 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 44 34 W 14 801 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 43 33 W 14 801 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 42 32 W 14 801 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 41 31 W 14 801 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 40 30 NW 14 801 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 40 30 NW 14 801 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 40 30 NW 14 801 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 40 30 NW 16 801 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 39 29 NW 16 801 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 39 29 NW 16 801 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 38 28 NW 12 801 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 38 28 NW 12 801 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 39 29 NW 12 801 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 39 29 NW 12 801 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 40 30 NW 12 801 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 41 31 NW 12 801 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 42 32 W 21 801 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 43 34 W 21 801 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 44 35 W 21 801 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 45 36 W 21 801 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 45 35 W 21 801 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 44 34 W 21 801 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 44 34 NW 17 801 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 42 32 NW 17 801 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 40 30 NW 17 801 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 37 27 NW 17 801 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 36 26 NW 17 801 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 35 25 NW 17 801 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 34 24 N 14 801 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 34 24 N 14 801 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 34 24 N 14 801 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 33 23 N 14 801 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 32 22 N 14 801 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 32 22 N 14 801 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 31 21 N 14 801 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 32 22 N 14 801 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 33 23 N 14 801 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 33 23 N 14 801 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 35 25 N 14 801 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 38 29 N 14 801 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 40 32 NW 7 801 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 43 36 NW 7 801 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 45 38 NW 7 801 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 47 40 NW 7 2229 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 47 39 NW 7 1504 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 46 37 NW 7 801 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 46 36 NW 14 801 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 45 35 NW 14 801 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 43 33 NW 14 801 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 41 31 NW 14 801 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 40 30 NW 14 801 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 40 30 NW 14 801 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 39 29 N 15 801 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 39 29 N 15 801 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 39 29 N 15 801 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 38 28 N 15 801 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 37 27 N 15 801 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 37 27 N 15 801 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 37 27 N 18 801 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 37 27 N 18 801 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 38 28 N 18 801 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 38 28 N 18 801 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 39 29 N 18 801 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 41 32 N 18 801 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 42 34 W 13 801 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 44 37 W 13 801 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 45 39 W 13 1504 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 46 39 W 13 1504 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 46 39 W 13 1504 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 45 36 W 13 801 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 45 35 W 13 801 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 44 34 W 13 801 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 42 32 W 13 801 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 41 31 W 13 801 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 40 30 W 13 801 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 39 29 W 13 801 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 39 29 N 9 801 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 39 29 N 9 801 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 39 29 N 9 801 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 38 28 N 9 801 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 37 27 N 9 801 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 37 27 N 9 801 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 36 26 N 9 801 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 37 27 N 9 801 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 38 28 N 9 801 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 38 28 N 9 801 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 39 29 N 9 801 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 42 33 N 9 801 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 43 35 SW 12 801 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 45 37 SW 12 801 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 46 39 SW 12 1504 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 48 40 SW 12 2229 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 48 40 SW 12 2229 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 47 38 SW 12 801 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 47 37 SW 13 801 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 46 36 SW 13 801 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 44 34 SW 13 801 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 43 33 SW 13 801 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 42 32 SW 13 801 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 41 31 SW 13 801 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 40 30 SW 9 801 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 40 30 SW 9 801 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 40 30 SW 9 801 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 40 30 SW 9 801 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 39 29 SW 9 801 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 39 29 SW 9 801 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 38 28 W 15 801 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 38 28 W 15 801 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 39 29 W 15 801 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 39 29 W 15 801 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 40 30 W 15 801 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 41 31 W 15 801 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 42 33 W 17 801 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 43 35 W 17 801 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 44 36 W 17 801 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 45 37 W 17 801 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 45 36 W 17 801 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 44 35 W 17 801 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 44 34 W 18 801 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 43 33 W 18 801 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 42 32 W 18 801 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 40 30 W 18 801 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 39 29 W 18 801 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 39 29 W 18 801 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 38 28 NW 12 801 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 38 28 NW 12 801 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 38 28 NW 12 801 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 38 28 NW 12 801 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 37 27 NW 12 801 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 37 27 NW 12 801 2600 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com