Detailed Predictions for: Ojai
Launch Altitude (f): 4700
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 50 50 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 50 50 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 52 52 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 60 61 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 66 68 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 71 75 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 72 77 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 72 78 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 73 79 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 74 79 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 74 78 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 74 77 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 75 76 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 75 75 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 74 74 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 67 67 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 63 63 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 62 62 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 60 60 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 56 56 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 54 54 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 51 51 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 49 49 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 50 50 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 48 48 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 48 48 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 50 50 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 59 60 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 65 67 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 70 74 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 71 76 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 71 77 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 72 78 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 73 78 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 73 77 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 73 76 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 74 75 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 74 74 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 73 73 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 66 66 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 63 63 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 61 61 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 59 59 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 56 56 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 54 54 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 51 51 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 49 49 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 50 50 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 48 48 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 48 48 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 49 49 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 58 59 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 64 66 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 68 71 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 69 74 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 69 75 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 71 77 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 71 76 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 71 75 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 71 74 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 72 73 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 72 72 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 71 71 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 65 65 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 62 62 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 60 60 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 59 59 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 55 55 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 53 53 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 51 51 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 49 49 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 50 50 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 48 48 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 48 48 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 49 49 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 57 57 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 62 63 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 66 69 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 67 71 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 67 72 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 68 73 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 68 72 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 68 71 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 69 71 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 69 70 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 69 69 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 68 68 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 62 62 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 59 59 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 57 57 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 56 56 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 52 52 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 50 50 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 48 48 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 46 46 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 47 47 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 45 45 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 45 45 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 46 46 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 51 51 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 55 55 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 58 59 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 58 60 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 58 61 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 59 62 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 59 62 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 59 61 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 60 61 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 60 60 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 60 60 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 59 59 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 54 54 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 51 51 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 50 50 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 49 49 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 46 46 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 45 45 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 42 42 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 41 41 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 42 42 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 40 40 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 40 40 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 41 41 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 48 48 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 52 54 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 56 59 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 57 62 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 57 64 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 58 65 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 58 64 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 58 63 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 59 62 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 59 61 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 59 59 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 58 58 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 54 54 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 53 53 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 52 52 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 51 51 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 49 49 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 47 47 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 46 46 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 45 45 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 45 45 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com