Detailed Predictions for: Ojai
Launch Altitude (f): 4700
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

19 JUN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 47 47 N 16 2887 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 46 46 N 16 2887 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 56 56 N 16 2887 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 66 67 N 13 6434 5661 961 Blue 4
9 AM Tue 71 74 N 13 7533 7317 2617 Blue 11
10 AM Tue 73 78 N 13 7811 7595 2895 Blue 15
11 AM Tue 76 83 E 7 8413 7942 3242 Blue 20
12 Noon Tue 78 86 E 7 8983 8388 3688 Blue 23
1 PM Tue 78 86 E 7 8983 8388 3688 Blue 23
2 PM Tue 79 87 W 7 9172 8577 3877 Blue 24
3 PM Tue 80 86 W 7 8983 8388 3688 Blue 23
4 PM Tue 82 87 W 7 9172 8577 3877 Blue 24
5 PM Tue 82 85 SW 6 8793 8218 3518 Blue 22
6 PM Tue 80 81 SW 6 8089 7803 3103 Blue 18
7 PM Tue 77 77 SW 6 7742 7525 2825 Blue 14
8 PM Tue 73 73 N 13 7463 7096 2396 Blue 10
9 PM Tue 68 68 N 13 6602 6089 1389 Blue 5
10 PM Tue 64 64 N 13 5707 4700 0 Blue 1
11 PM Tue 61 61 N 12 3632 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 60 60 N 12 2991 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 59 59 N 12 2887 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 57 57 N 14 2887 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 55 55 N 14 2887 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 54 54 N 14 2887 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 53 53 N 15 2887 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 51 51 N 15 2887 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 61 61 N 15 3632 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 71 72 NE 9 7393 6756 2056 Blue 9
9 AM Wed 76 79 NE 9 7881 7664 2964 Blue 16
10 AM Wed 78 83 NE 9 8413 7942 3242 Blue 20
11 AM Wed 81 88 SE 10 9448 8766 4066 Blue 25
12 Noon Wed 83 91 SE 10 10574 9390 4690 Blue 28
1 PM Wed 83 91 SE 10 10574 9390 4690 Blue 28
2 PM Wed 84 92 SW 10 11110 9729 5029 Blue 29
3 PM Wed 85 91 SW 10 10574 9390 4690 Blue 28
4 PM Wed 87 92 SW 10 11110 9729 5029 Blue 29
5 PM Wed 87 90 SW 9 10127 9142 4442 Blue 27
6 PM Wed 85 86 SW 9 8983 8388 3688 Blue 23
7 PM Wed 81 81 SW 9 8089 7803 3103 Blue 18
8 PM Wed 77 77 W 8 7742 7525 2825 Blue 14
9 PM Wed 72 72 W 8 7393 6756 2056 Blue 9
10 PM Wed 67 67 W 8 6434 5661 961 Blue 4
11 PM Wed 64 64 N 14 5707 4700 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 63 63 N 14 4841 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 61 61 N 14 3632 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 59 59 N 13 2887 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 56 56 N 13 2887 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 55 55 N 13 2887 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 54 54 N 10 2887 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 52 52 N 10 2887 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 61 61 N 10 3632 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 70 71 N 8 7324 6589 1889 Blue 8
9 AM Thu 75 78 N 8 7811 7595 2895 Blue 15
10 AM Thu 77 82 N 8 8237 7873 3173 Blue 19
11 AM Thu 80 87 E 2 9172 8577 3877 Blue 24
12 Noon Thu 82 90 E 2 10127 9142 4442 Blue 27
1 PM Thu 81 90 E 2 10127 9142 4442 Blue 27
2 PM Thu 82 90 NW 7 10127 9142 4442 Blue 27
3 PM Thu 84 91 NW 7 10574 9390 4690 Blue 28
4 PM Thu 85 90 NW 7 10127 9142 4442 Blue 27
5 PM Thu 85 88 NW 6 9448 8766 4066 Blue 25
6 PM Thu 83 84 NW 6 8604 8071 3371 Blue 21
7 PM Thu 80 80 NW 6 7951 7734 3034 Blue 17
8 PM Thu 76 76 NW 6 7672 7456 2756 Blue 13
9 PM Thu 71 71 NW 6 7324 6589 1889 Blue 8
10 PM Thu 66 66 NW 6 6267 4829 129 Blue 3
11 PM Thu 63 63 N 9 4841 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 62 62 N 9 4247 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 61 61 N 9 3632 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 58 58 N 9 2887 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 56 56 N 9 2887 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 55 55 N 9 2887 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 54 54 N 9 2887 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 52 52 N 9 2887 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 61 61 N 9 3632 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 69 70 N 9 7133 6423 1723 Blue 7
9 AM Fri 74 77 N 9 7742 7525 2825 Blue 14
10 AM Fri 76 81 N 9 8089 7803 3103 Blue 18
11 AM Fri 79 86 W 10 8983 8388 3688 Blue 23
12 Noon Fri 81 89 W 10 9789 8954 4254 Blue 26
1 PM Fri 81 90 W 10 10127 9142 4442 Blue 27
2 PM Fri 81 89 W 10 9789 8954 4254 Blue 26
3 PM Fri 83 90 W 10 10127 9142 4442 Blue 27
4 PM Fri 84 89 W 10 9789 8954 4254 Blue 26
5 PM Fri 84 87 NW 10 9172 8577 3877 Blue 24
6 PM Fri 82 83 NW 10 8413 7942 3242 Blue 20
7 PM Fri 79 79 NW 10 7881 7664 2964 Blue 16
8 PM Fri 75 75 NW 10 7602 7386 2686 Blue 12
9 PM Fri 70 70 NW 10 7133 6423 1723 Blue 7
10 PM Fri 66 66 NW 10 6267 4829 129 Blue 3
11 PM Fri 63 63 N 5 4841 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 62 62 N 5 4247 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 61 61 N 5 3632 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 58 58 N 5 2887 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 56 56 N 5 2887 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 55 55 N 5 2887 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 54 54 N 5 2887 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 52 52 N 5 2887 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 60 60 N 5 2991 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 68 69 N 5 6769 6256 1556 Blue 6
9 AM Sat 73 76 N 5 7672 7456 2756 Blue 13
10 AM Sat 75 80 N 5 7951 7734 3034 Blue 17
11 AM Sat 77 84 W 12 8604 8071 3371 Blue 21
12 Noon Sat 79 87 W 12 9172 8577 3877 Blue 24
1 PM Sat 79 87 W 12 9172 8577 3877 Blue 24
2 PM Sat 79 87 W 12 9172 8577 3877 Blue 24
3 PM Sat 81 87 W 12 9172 8577 3877 Blue 24
4 PM Sat 82 87 W 12 9172 8577 3877 Blue 24
5 PM Sat 82 85 W 10 8793 8218 3518 Blue 22
6 PM Sat 80 81 W 10 8089 7803 3103 Blue 18
7 PM Sat 77 77 W 10 7742 7525 2825 Blue 14
8 PM Sat 74 74 W 10 7533 7317 2617 Blue 11
9 PM Sat 69 69 W 10 6769 6256 1556 Blue 6
10 PM Sat 65 65 W 10 6099 4700 0 Blue 2
11 PM Sat 62 62 N 1 4247 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 61 61 N 1 3632 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 60 60 N 1 2991 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 58 58 N 1 2887 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 56 56 N 1 2887 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 55 55 N 1 2887 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 54 54 NE 2 2887 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 52 52 NE 2 2887 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 60 60 NE 2 2991 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 68 69 NE 2 6769 6256 1556 Blue 6
9 AM Sun 72 75 NE 2 7602 7386 2686 Blue 12
10 AM Sun 74 79 NE 2 7881 7664 2964 Blue 16
11 AM Sun 76 83 S 9 8413 7942 3242 Blue 20
12 Noon Sun 78 86 S 9 8983 8388 3688 Blue 23
1 PM Sun 78 86 S 9 8983 8388 3688 Blue 23
2 PM Sun 78 86 S 9 8983 8388 3688 Blue 23
3 PM Sun 80 86 S 9 8983 8388 3688 Blue 23
4 PM Sun 81 86 S 9 8983 8388 3688 Blue 23
5 PM Sun 81 84 S 9 8604 8071 3371 Blue 21
6 PM Sun 79 80 S 9 7951 7734 3034 Blue 17
7 PM Sun 76 76 S 9 7672 7456 2756 Blue 13
8 PM Sun 72 72 S 9 7393 6756 2056 Blue 9
9 PM Sun 67 67 S 9 6434 5661 961 Blue 4
10 PM Sun 62 62 S 9 4247 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 59 59 E 2 2887 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 58 58 E 2 2887 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 57 57 E 2 2887 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 54 54 E 2 2887 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 52 52 E 2 2887 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 51 51 E 2 2887 4700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com