Detailed Predictions for: Ojai
Launch Altitude (f): 4700
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

25 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Mon 40 40 NE 12 2497 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 44 44 NE 12 2497 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 44 44 NE 12 2497 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 47 47 NE 12 2497 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 54 55 NE 12 2497 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 63 66 NE 12 8159 6999 2299 Blue 6
11 AM Mon 71 75 NE 8 9505 8838 4138 Blue 15
12 Noon Mon 76 81 NE 8 11256 10329 5629 Blue 21
1 PM Mon 78 84 NE 8 12107 11190 6490 Blue 24
2 PM Mon 78 83 S 3 11825 10905 6205 Blue 23
3 PM Mon 77 81 S 3 11256 10329 5629 Blue 21
4 PM Mon 76 78 S 3 10388 9459 4759 Blue 18
5 PM Mon 73 74 S 3 9239 8723 4023 Blue 14
6 PM Mon 68 68 S 3 8392 8029 3329 Blue 8
7 PM Mon 62 62 S 3 6330 4700 0 Blue 2
8 PM Mon 57 57 N 8 2497 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 53 53 N 8 2497 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 50 50 N 8 2497 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 49 49 N 7 2497 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 47 47 N 7 2497 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 46 46 N 7 2497 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 46 46 N 8 2497 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 47 47 N 8 2497 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 49 49 N 8 2497 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 49 49 N 8 2497 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 46 46 N 8 2497 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 44 44 N 8 2497 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 46 46 N 9 2497 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 53 54 N 9 2497 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 63 66 N 9 8159 6999 2299 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 72 76 NE 9 9796 8954 4254 Blue 16
12 Noon Tue 77 82 NE 9 11542 10618 5918 Blue 22
1 PM Tue 79 85 NE 9 12386 11473 6773 Blue 25
2 PM Tue 79 84 SW 5 12107 11190 6490 Blue 24
3 PM Tue 78 82 SW 5 11542 10618 5918 Blue 22
4 PM Tue 76 78 SW 5 10388 9459 4759 Blue 18
5 PM Tue 73 74 S 2 9239 8723 4023 Blue 14
6 PM Tue 68 68 S 2 8392 8029 3329 Blue 8
7 PM Tue 63 63 S 2 7064 4815 115 Blue 3
8 PM Tue 59 59 E 5 4091 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 57 57 E 5 2497 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 56 56 E 5 2497 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 56 56 NE 7 2497 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 55 55 NE 7 2497 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 54 54 NE 7 2497 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 53 53 NE 8 2497 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 52 52 NE 8 2497 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 51 51 NE 8 2497 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 50 50 NE 10 2497 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 48 48 NE 10 2497 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 47 47 NE 10 2497 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 50 50 NE 10 2497 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 57 58 NE 10 3306 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 66 69 NE 10 8508 8144 3444 Blue 9
11 AM Wed 75 79 NE 12 10680 9742 5042 Blue 19
12 Noon Wed 80 85 NE 12 12386 11473 6773 Blue 25
1 PM Wed 81 87 NE 12 12940 12034 7334 Blue 27
2 PM Wed 80 85 S 5 12386 11473 6773 Blue 25
3 PM Wed 77 81 S 5 11256 10329 5629 Blue 21
4 PM Wed 73 75 S 5 9505 8838 4138 Blue 15
5 PM Wed 69 70 NE 2 8624 8260 3560 Blue 10
6 PM Wed 65 65 NE 2 8043 6279 1579 Blue 5
7 PM Wed 61 61 NE 2 5547 4700 0 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 58 58 NE 2 3306 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 56 56 NE 2 2497 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 55 55 NE 2 2497 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 53 53 NE 3 2497 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 51 51 NE 3 2497 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 49 49 NE 3 2497 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 48 48 NE 3 2497 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 47 47 NE 3 2497 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 47 47 NE 3 2497 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 49 49 NE 5 2497 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 52 52 NE 5 2497 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 56 56 NE 5 2497 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 61 61 NE 5 5547 4700 0 Blue 1
9 AM Thu 66 67 NE 5 8275 7681 2981 Blue 7
10 AM Thu 71 74 NE 5 9239 8723 4023 Blue 14
11 AM Thu 75 79 SW 3 10680 9742 5042 Blue 19
12 Noon Thu 78 83 SW 3 11825 10905 6205 Blue 23
1 PM Thu 81 87 SW 3 12940 12034 7334 Blue 27
2 PM Thu 82 87 SW 3 12940 12034 7334 Blue 27
3 PM Thu 83 87 SW 3 12940 12034 7334 Blue 27
4 PM Thu 83 85 SW 3 12386 11473 6773 Blue 25
5 PM Thu 81 82 SW 5 11542 10618 5918 Blue 22
6 PM Thu 79 79 SW 5 10680 9742 5042 Blue 19
7 PM Thu 76 76 SW 5 9796 8954 4254 Blue 16
8 PM Thu 72 72 SW 5 8856 8491 3791 Blue 12
9 PM Thu 68 68 SW 5 8392 8029 3329 Blue 8
10 PM Thu 63 63 SW 5 7064 4815 115 Blue 3
11 PM Thu 59 59 NE 5 4091 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 55 55 NE 5 2497 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 52 52 NE 5 2497 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 50 50 NE 5 2497 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 49 49 NE 5 2497 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 49 49 NE 5 2497 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 51 51 N 6 2497 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 54 54 N 6 2497 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 59 59 N 6 4091 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 64 64 N 6 7757 5513 813 Blue 4
9 AM Fri 69 70 N 6 8624 8260 3560 Blue 10
10 AM Fri 74 77 N 6 10094 9195 4495 Blue 17
11 AM Fri 78 82 W 6 11542 10618 5918 Blue 22
12 Noon Fri 81 86 W 6 12664 11755 7055 Blue 26
1 PM Fri 83 89 W 6 14550 12587 7887 Blue 29
2 PM Fri 85 90 W 6 15495 12860 8160 Blue 30
3 PM Fri 85 89 W 6 14550 12587 7887 Blue 29
4 PM Fri 84 86 W 6 12664 11755 7055 Blue 26
5 PM Fri 83 84 SW 6 12107 11190 6490 Blue 24
6 PM Fri 81 81 SW 6 11256 10329 5629 Blue 21
7 PM Fri 78 78 SW 6 10388 9459 4759 Blue 18
8 PM Fri 75 75 SW 6 9505 8838 4138 Blue 15
9 PM Fri 71 71 SW 6 8740 8376 3676 Blue 11
10 PM Fri 67 67 SW 6 8275 7681 2981 Blue 7
11 PM Fri 63 63 N 5 7064 4815 115 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sat 58 58 N 5 3306 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 54 54 N 5 2497 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 51 51 N 5 2497 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 49 49 N 5 2497 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 48 48 N 5 2497 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 49 49 N 5 2497 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 52 52 N 5 2497 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 57 57 N 5 2497 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 62 62 N 5 6330 4700 0 Blue 2
9 AM Sat 68 69 N 5 8508 8144 3444 Blue 9
10 AM Sat 73 76 N 5 9796 8954 4254 Blue 16
11 AM Sat 78 82 W 8 11542 10618 5918 Blue 22
12 Noon Sat 81 86 W 8 12664 11755 7055 Blue 26
1 PM Sat 83 89 W 8 14550 12587 7887 Blue 29
2 PM Sat 85 90 W 8 15495 12860 8160 Blue 30
3 PM Sat 85 89 W 8 14550 12587 7887 Blue 29
4 PM Sat 85 87 W 8 12940 12034 7334 Blue 27
5 PM Sat 84 85 SW 7 12386 11473 6773 Blue 25
6 PM Sat 82 82 SW 7 11542 10618 5918 Blue 22
7 PM Sat 80 80 SW 7 10969 10037 5337 Blue 20
8 PM Sat 77 77 SW 7 10094 9195 4495 Blue 17
9 PM Sat 74 74 SW 7 9239 8723 4023 Blue 14
10 PM Sat 71 71 SW 7 8740 8376 3676 Blue 11
11 PM Sat 66 66 N 6 8159 6999 2299 Blue 6
12 Midnight Sun 62 62 N 6 6330 4700 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sun 57 57 N 6 2497 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 52 52 N 6 2497 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 49 49 N 6 2497 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 48 48 N 6 2497 4700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com