Detailed Predictions for: Ojai
Launch Altitude (f): 4700
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

18 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 42 42 N 13 3602 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 41 41 N 13 3602 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 41 41 N 13 3602 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 43 43 N 13 3602 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 52 53 N 13 4453 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 60 62 N 13 6353 6036 1336 Blue 8
11 AM Fri 65 68 N 8 7876 7071 2371 Blue 14
12 Noon Fri 68 72 N 8 9454 8099 3399 Blue 18
1 PM Fri 70 74 N 8 10344 8830 4130 Blue 20
2 PM Fri 71 74 N 8 10344 8830 4130 Blue 20
3 PM Fri 71 73 N 8 9978 8330 3630 Blue 19
4 PM Fri 69 70 N 8 8362 7589 2889 Blue 16
5 PM Fri 68 68 N 8 7876 7071 2371 Blue 14
6 PM Fri 65 65 N 8 7095 6348 1648 Blue 11
7 PM Fri 59 59 N 8 6047 5494 794 Blue 5
8 PM Fri 56 56 N 8 5502 4700 0 Blue 2
9 PM Fri 53 53 N 8 4453 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 52 52 N 8 3895 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 51 51 N 16 3602 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 50 50 N 16 3602 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 49 49 N 16 3602 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 49 49 N 10 3602 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 48 48 N 10 3602 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 47 47 N 10 3602 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 45 45 N 10 3602 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 44 44 N 10 3602 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 44 44 N 10 3602 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 46 46 N 10 3602 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 54 55 N 10 5385 4700 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 61 63 N 10 6568 6191 1491 Blue 9
11 AM Sat 67 70 N 7 8362 7589 2889 Blue 16
12 Noon Sat 69 73 N 7 9978 8330 3630 Blue 19
1 PM Sat 71 75 N 7 10665 9364 4664 Blue 21
2 PM Sat 72 76 N 7 10981 9881 5181 Blue 22
3 PM Sat 72 75 N 7 10665 9364 4664 Blue 21
4 PM Sat 70 71 N 7 8913 7845 3145 Blue 17
5 PM Sat 69 69 N 22 8129 7330 2630 Blue 15
6 PM Sat 66 66 N 22 7357 6548 1848 Blue 12
7 PM Sat 61 61 N 22 6275 5856 1156 Blue 7
8 PM Sat 58 58 N 22 5865 5381 681 Blue 4
9 PM Sat 55 55 N 22 5385 4700 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sat 54 54 N 22 5164 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 53 53 N 21 4453 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 52 52 N 21 3895 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 52 52 N 21 3895 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 51 51 N 21 3602 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 51 51 N 21 3602 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 49 49 N 21 3602 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 48 48 N 24 3602 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 47 47 N 24 3602 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 47 47 N 24 3602 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 48 48 N 24 3602 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 56 57 N 24 5684 5116 416 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 63 65 N 24 7095 6348 1648 Blue 11
11 AM Sun 68 71 NW 7 8913 7845 3145 Blue 17
12 Noon Sun 71 75 NW 7 10665 9364 4664 Blue 21
1 PM Sun 72 76 NW 7 10981 9881 5181 Blue 22
2 PM Sun 73 77 NW 7 11068 10279 5579 Blue 23
3 PM Sun 73 76 NW 7 10981 9881 5181 Blue 22
4 PM Sun 71 72 NW 7 9454 8099 3399 Blue 18
5 PM Sun 70 70 NW 7 8362 7589 2889 Blue 16
6 PM Sun 67 67 NW 7 7617 6810 2110 Blue 13
7 PM Sun 62 62 NW 7 6353 6036 1336 Blue 8
8 PM Sun 58 58 NW 7 5865 5381 681 Blue 4
9 PM Sun 55 55 NW 7 5385 4700 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 54 54 NW 7 5164 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 54 54 NE 16 5164 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 53 53 NE 16 4453 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 52 52 NE 16 3895 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 52 52 NE 16 3895 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 51 51 NE 16 3602 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 49 49 NE 16 3602 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 48 48 NE 16 3602 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 47 47 NE 16 3602 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 47 47 NE 16 3602 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 49 49 NE 16 3602 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 58 59 NE 16 6047 5494 794 Blue 5
10 AM Mon 65 67 NE 16 7617 6810 2110 Blue 13
11 AM Mon 70 73 E 6 9978 8330 3630 Blue 19
12 Noon Mon 73 77 E 6 11068 10279 5579 Blue 23
1 PM Mon 75 79 E 6 11242 10912 6212 Blue 25
2 PM Mon 76 80 E 6 11328 11048 6348 Blue 26
3 PM Mon 76 79 E 6 11242 10912 6212 Blue 25
4 PM Mon 74 75 E 6 10665 9364 4664 Blue 21
5 PM Mon 73 73 E 5 9978 8330 3630 Blue 19
6 PM Mon 71 71 E 5 8913 7845 3145 Blue 17
7 PM Mon 66 66 E 5 7357 6548 1848 Blue 12
8 PM Mon 63 63 E 5 6568 6191 1491 Blue 9
9 PM Mon 60 60 E 5 6196 5675 975 Blue 6
10 PM Mon 60 60 E 5 6196 5675 975 Blue 6
11 PM Mon 59 59 NE 9 6047 5494 794 Blue 5
12 Midnight Tue 58 58 NE 9 5865 5381 681 Blue 4
1 AM Tue 58 58 NE 9 5865 5381 681 Blue 4
2 AM Tue 57 57 NE 9 5684 5116 416 Blue 3
3 AM Tue 56 56 NE 9 5502 4700 0 Blue 2
4 AM Tue 55 55 NE 9 5385 4700 0 Blue 1
5 AM Tue 54 54 NE 8 5164 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 53 53 NE 8 4453 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 53 53 NE 8 4453 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 55 55 NE 8 5385 4700 0 Blue 1
9 AM Tue 63 64 NE 8 6832 6269 1569 Blue 10
10 AM Tue 70 72 NE 8 9454 8099 3399 Blue 18
11 AM Tue 76 79 W 5 11242 10912 6212 Blue 25
12 Noon Tue 78 82 W 5 11502 11221 6521 Blue 28
1 PM Tue 80 84 W 5 11676 11395 6695 Blue 30
2 PM Tue 81 85 W 5 11761 11481 6781 Blue 31
3 PM Tue 81 84 W 5 11676 11395 6695 Blue 30
4 PM Tue 79 80 W 5 11328 11048 6348 Blue 26
5 PM Tue 77 77 W 5 11068 10279 5579 Blue 23
6 PM Tue 74 74 W 5 10344 8830 4130 Blue 20
7 PM Tue 68 68 W 5 7876 7071 2371 Blue 14
8 PM Tue 64 64 W 5 6832 6269 1569 Blue 10
9 PM Tue 61 61 W 5 6275 5856 1156 Blue 7
10 PM Tue 60 60 W 5 6196 5675 975 Blue 6
11 PM Tue 59 59 N 6 6047 5494 794 Blue 5
12 Midnight Wed 57 57 N 6 5684 5116 416 Blue 3
1 AM Wed 57 57 N 6 5684 5116 416 Blue 3
2 AM Wed 56 56 N 6 5502 4700 0 Blue 2
3 AM Wed 55 55 N 6 5385 4700 0 Blue 1
4 AM Wed 54 54 N 6 5164 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 52 52 N 6 3895 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 51 51 N 6 3602 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 51 51 N 6 3602 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 53 53 N 6 4453 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 61 62 N 6 6353 6036 1336 Blue 8
10 AM Wed 68 70 N 6 8362 7589 2889 Blue 16
11 AM Wed 74 77 W 8 11068 10279 5579 Blue 23
12 Noon Wed 76 80 W 8 11328 11048 6348 Blue 26
1 PM Wed 78 82 W 8 11502 11221 6521 Blue 28
2 PM Wed 79 83 W 8 11589 11308 6608 Blue 29
3 PM Wed 79 82 W 8 11502 11221 6521 Blue 28
4 PM Wed 77 78 W 8 11155 10597 5897 Blue 24
5 PM Wed 76 76 W 8 10981 9881 5181 Blue 22
6 PM Wed 72 72 W 8 9454 8099 3399 Blue 18
7 PM Wed 66 66 W 8 7357 6548 1848 Blue 12
8 PM Wed 62 62 W 8 6353 6036 1336 Blue 8
9 PM Wed 59 59 W 8 6047 5494 794 Blue 5
10 PM Wed 58 58 W 8 5865 5381 681 Blue 4
11 PM Wed 57 57 N 7 5684 5116 416 Blue 3
12 Midnight Thu 56 56 N 7 5502 4700 0 Blue 2
1 AM Thu 56 56 N 7 5502 4700 0 Blue 2
2 AM Thu 55 55 N 7 5385 4700 0 Blue 1
3 AM Thu 54 54 N 7 5164 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 53 53 N 7 4453 4700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com