Detailed Predictions for: Ojai
Launch Altitude (f): 4700
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

15 JUN 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 55 55 NW 5 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 54 54 NW 5 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 57 57 NW 5 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 62 63 N 6 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 66 69 N 6 4322 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 68 72 N 6 5676 4700 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 70 77 W 3 6353 5940 1240 Blue 7
12 Noon Sat 72 80 W 3 7337 6344 1644 Blue 10
1 PM Sat 74 83 W 3 8826 7170 2470 Blue 13
2 PM Sat 75 83 W 7 8826 7170 2470 Blue 13
3 PM Sat 74 81 W 7 8057 6479 1779 Blue 11
4 PM Sat 74 79 W 7 6710 6209 1509 Blue 9
5 PM Sat 74 77 SW 7 6353 5940 1240 Blue 7
6 PM Sat 73 74 SW 7 5947 5534 834 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 72 72 SW 7 5676 4700 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 69 69 SW 6 4322 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 64 64 SW 6 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 61 61 SW 6 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 60 60 N 8 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 59 59 N 8 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 58 58 N 8 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 57 57 NW 7 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 56 56 NW 7 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 55 55 NW 7 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 55 55 NW 5 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 54 54 NW 5 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 57 57 NW 5 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 61 62 NW 3 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 65 68 NW 3 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 67 71 NW 3 5540 4700 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 70 77 SW 6 6353 5940 1240 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 71 79 SW 6 6710 6209 1509 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 73 82 SW 6 8444 6692 1992 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 74 82 SW 6 8444 6692 1992 Blue 12
3 PM Sun 73 80 SW 6 7337 6344 1644 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 73 78 SW 6 6490 6074 1374 Blue 8
5 PM Sun 73 76 SW 5 6218 5805 1105 Blue 6
6 PM Sun 72 73 SW 5 5811 4786 86 Blue 3
7 PM Sun 71 71 SW 5 5540 4700 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 68 68 SW 5 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 63 63 SW 5 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 60 60 SW 5 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 59 59 N 5 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 58 58 N 5 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 57 57 N 5 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 56 56 N 5 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 55 55 N 5 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 54 54 N 5 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 54 54 N 5 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 53 53 N 5 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 56 56 N 5 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 61 62 N 5 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 65 67 N 5 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 67 71 N 5 5540 4700 0 Blue 1
11 AM Mon 69 76 SW 6 6218 5805 1105 Blue 6
12 Noon Mon 71 79 SW 6 6710 6209 1509 Blue 9
1 PM Mon 73 81 SW 6 8057 6479 1779 Blue 11
2 PM Mon 74 82 SW 6 8444 6692 1992 Blue 12
3 PM Mon 73 79 SW 6 6710 6209 1509 Blue 9
4 PM Mon 73 77 SW 6 6353 5940 1240 Blue 7
5 PM Mon 73 76 SW 3 6218 5805 1105 Blue 6
6 PM Mon 72 73 SW 3 5811 4786 86 Blue 3
7 PM Mon 71 71 SW 3 5540 4700 0 Blue 1
8 PM Mon 68 68 SW 3 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 64 64 SW 3 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 62 62 SW 3 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 60 60 N 3 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 60 60 N 3 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 59 59 N 3 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 58 58 N 3 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 57 57 N 3 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 56 56 N 3 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 56 56 N 6 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 55 55 N 6 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 58 58 N 6 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 63 64 N 6 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 67 70 N 6 4795 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 69 74 N 6 5947 5534 834 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 72 79 SW 7 6710 6209 1509 Blue 9
12 Noon Tue 74 82 SW 7 8444 6692 1992 Blue 12
1 PM Tue 76 84 SW 7 9203 8010 3310 Blue 14
2 PM Tue 77 85 SW 7 9574 8393 3693 Blue 15
3 PM Tue 76 82 SW 7 8444 6692 1992 Blue 12
4 PM Tue 76 80 SW 7 7337 6344 1644 Blue 10
5 PM Tue 76 79 SW 6 6710 6209 1509 Blue 9
6 PM Tue 75 76 SW 6 6218 5805 1105 Blue 6
7 PM Tue 74 74 SW 6 5947 5534 834 Blue 4
8 PM Tue 71 71 SW 6 5540 4700 0 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 67 67 SW 6 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 64 64 SW 6 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 62 62 W 5 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 62 62 W 5 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 61 61 W 5 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 60 60 W 5 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 59 59 W 5 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 58 58 W 5 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 58 58 W 3 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 57 57 W 3 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 60 60 W 3 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 65 66 W 3 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 69 72 W 3 5676 4700 0 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 71 76 W 3 6218 5805 1105 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 73 80 SW 8 7337 6344 1644 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 75 83 SW 8 8826 7170 2470 Blue 13
1 PM Wed 77 86 SW 8 10335 8771 4071 Blue 16
2 PM Wed 78 86 SW 8 10335 8771 4071 Blue 16
3 PM Wed 77 84 SW 8 9203 8010 3310 Blue 14
4 PM Wed 77 82 SW 8 8444 6692 1992 Blue 12
5 PM Wed 77 80 SW 8 7337 6344 1644 Blue 10
6 PM Wed 76 77 SW 8 6353 5940 1240 Blue 7
7 PM Wed 75 75 SW 8 6082 5670 970 Blue 5
8 PM Wed 72 72 SW 8 5676 4700 0 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 67 67 SW 8 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 64 64 SW 8 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 63 63 W 6 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 62 62 W 6 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 61 61 W 6 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 60 60 W 6 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 59 59 W 6 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 58 W 6 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 58 58 SW 3 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 57 57 SW 3 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 60 60 SW 3 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 64 65 SW 3 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 68 71 SW 3 5540 4700 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 69 74 SW 3 5947 5534 834 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 72 79 SW 8 6710 6209 1509 Blue 9
12 Noon Thu 74 82 SW 8 8444 6692 1992 Blue 12
1 PM Thu 75 84 SW 8 9203 8010 3310 Blue 14
2 PM Thu 76 84 SW 8 9203 8010 3310 Blue 14
3 PM Thu 75 82 SW 8 8444 6692 1992 Blue 12
4 PM Thu 75 80 SW 8 7337 6344 1644 Blue 10
5 PM Thu 75 78 SW 7 6490 6074 1374 Blue 8
6 PM Thu 74 75 SW 7 6082 5670 970 Blue 5
7 PM Thu 73 73 SW 7 5811 4786 86 Blue 3
8 PM Thu 70 70 SW 7 4795 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 66 66 SW 7 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 63 63 SW 7 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 61 61 SW 7 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 61 61 SW 7 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 60 60 SW 7 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 59 59 SW 7 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 58 58 SW 7 3970 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 57 57 SW 7 3970 4700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com