Detailed Predictions for: Ojai
Launch Altitude (f): 4700
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

16 FEB 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sat 28 28 N 17 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 29 29 N 17 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 29 29 N 17 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 29 29 N 17 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 30 30 N 17 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 31 31 N 17 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 33 34 NW 22 4882 4700 0 White 0
11 AM Sat 35 37 NW 22 5544 5192 492 White 4
12 Noon Sat 37 39 NW 22 5983 5845 1145 White 6
1 PM Sat 38 40 NW 22 6200 6200 1500 White 7
2 PM Sat 38 39 NW 22 5983 5845 1145 White 6
3 PM Sat 38 39 NW 22 5983 5845 1145 White 6
4 PM Sat 37 37 NW 22 5544 5192 492 White 4
5 PM Sat 36 36 NW 22 5324 4843 143 White 3
6 PM Sat 33 33 NW 22 4659 4700 0 White 0
7 PM Sat 30 30 NW 22 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 29 29 NW 22 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 28 28 NW 22 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 27 27 N 16 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 26 26 N 16 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 27 27 N 16 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 27 27 N 14 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 25 25 N 14 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 25 25 N 14 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 25 25 NW 13 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 26 26 NW 13 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 26 26 NW 13 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 27 27 NW 13 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 28 28 NW 13 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 29 29 NW 13 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 32 32 NW 17 4299 4700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 34 35 NW 17 5104 4700 0 White 2
12 Noon Sun 37 38 NW 17 5764 5520 820 White 5
1 PM Sun 38 39 NW 17 5983 5845 1145 White 6
2 PM Sun 37 37 NW 17 5544 5192 492 White 4
3 PM Sun 38 38 NW 17 5764 5520 820 White 5
4 PM Sun 36 36 N 18 5324 4843 143 White 3
5 PM Sun 35 35 N 18 5104 4700 0 White 2
6 PM Sun 31 31 N 18 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 28 28 N 18 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 26 26 N 18 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 25 25 N 18 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 23 23 N 18 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 22 22 N 18 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 23 23 N 18 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 23 23 N 18 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 21 21 N 18 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 21 21 N 18 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 21 21 N 18 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 22 22 N 18 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 23 23 N 18 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 23 23 N 18 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 25 25 N 18 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 27 28 N 18 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 30 32 NW 9 4299 4700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 33 36 NW 9 5324 4843 143 White 3
12 Noon Mon 37 40 NW 9 6200 6200 1500 White 7
1 PM Mon 38 41 NW 9 6417 6417 1717 White 8
2 PM Mon 37 39 NW 9 5983 5845 1145 White 6
3 PM Mon 38 39 NW 9 5983 5845 1145 White 6
4 PM Mon 37 37 NW 8 5544 5192 492 White 4
5 PM Mon 36 36 NW 8 5324 4843 143 White 3
6 PM Mon 33 33 NW 8 4659 4700 0 White 0
7 PM Mon 30 30 NW 8 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 29 29 NW 8 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 28 28 NW 8 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 27 27 N 9 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 26 26 N 9 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 27 27 N 9 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 27 27 N 9 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 25 25 N 9 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 25 25 N 9 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 25 25 N 12 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 26 26 N 12 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 27 27 N 12 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 27 27 N 12 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 29 29 N 12 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 31 32 N 12 4299 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 34 36 S 8 5324 4843 143 White 3
11 AM Tue 37 40 S 8 6200 6200 1500 White 7
12 Noon Tue 41 45 S 8 7278 7278 2578 White 12
1 PM Tue 42 45 S 8 7278 7278 2578 White 12
2 PM Tue 41 43 S 8 6849 6849 2149 White 10
3 PM Tue 42 43 S 8 6849 6849 2149 White 10
4 PM Tue 41 41 S 6 6417 6417 1717 White 8
5 PM Tue 40 40 S 6 6200 6200 1500 White 7
6 PM Tue 37 37 S 6 5544 5192 492 White 4
7 PM Tue 35 35 S 6 5104 4700 0 White 2
8 PM Tue 33 33 S 6 4659 4700 0 White 0
9 PM Tue 33 33 S 6 4659 4700 0 White 0
10 PM Tue 32 32 NW 8 4299 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 31 31 NW 8 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 32 32 NW 8 4299 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 31 31 NW 8 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 30 30 NW 8 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 30 30 NW 8 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 30 30 N 7 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 30 30 N 7 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 31 31 N 7 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 31 31 N 7 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 32 32 N 7 4299 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 33 34 N 7 4882 4700 0 White 0
10 AM Wed 34 35 SW 9 5104 4700 0 White 2
11 AM Wed 36 38 SW 9 5764 5520 820 White 5
12 Noon Wed 37 39 SW 9 5983 5845 1145 White 6
1 PM Wed 38 40 SW 9 6200 6200 1500 White 7
2 PM Wed 38 39 SW 9 5983 5845 1145 White 6
3 PM Wed 38 39 SW 9 5983 5845 1145 White 6
4 PM Wed 37 37 SW 10 5544 5192 492 White 4
5 PM Wed 36 36 SW 10 5324 4843 143 White 3
6 PM Wed 34 34 SW 10 4882 4700 0 White 0
7 PM Wed 33 33 SW 10 4659 4700 0 White 0
8 PM Wed 32 32 SW 10 4299 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 31 31 SW 10 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 30 30 SW 7 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 30 30 SW 7 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 30 30 SW 7 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 30 30 SW 7 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 29 29 SW 7 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 29 29 SW 7 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 29 29 W 13 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 29 29 W 13 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 30 30 W 13 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 30 30 W 13 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 31 31 W 13 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 32 32 W 13 4299 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 34 35 NW 10 5104 4700 0 White 2
11 AM Thu 35 36 NW 10 5324 4843 143 White 3
12 Noon Thu 37 38 NW 10 5764 5520 820 White 5
1 PM Thu 38 39 NW 10 5983 5845 1145 White 6
2 PM Thu 38 39 NW 10 5983 5845 1145 White 6
3 PM Thu 38 38 NW 10 5764 5520 820 White 5
4 PM Thu 36 36 NW 10 5324 4843 143 White 3
5 PM Thu 35 35 NW 10 5104 4700 0 White 2
6 PM Thu 32 32 NW 10 4299 4700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 29 29 NW 10 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 27 27 NW 10 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 26 26 NW 10 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 25 25 NW 13 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 24 24 NW 13 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 25 25 NW 13 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 25 25 NW 13 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 23 23 NW 13 4186 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 23 23 NW 13 4186 4700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com