Detailed Predictions for: Ojai
Launch Altitude (f): 4700
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

23 FEB 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 23 23 N 16 3396 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 21 21 N 16 3396 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 19 19 N 16 3396 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 20 20 N 17 3396 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 24 24 N 17 3396 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 31 32 N 17 5892 5886 1186 White 4
10 AM Fri 38 40 N 17 7603 7603 2903 White 14
11 AM Fri 45 48 N 17 9285 9285 4585 White 21
12 Noon Fri 50 53 N 17 10352 10064 5364 White 26
1 PM Fri 54 57 N 17 11187 10714 6014 White 30
2 PM Fri 56 58 N 17 11390 10890 6190 White 31
3 PM Fri 55 56 N 17 10981 10541 5841 White 29
4 PM Fri 51 51 N 17 9933 9815 5115 White 24
5 PM Fri 44 44 N 17 8445 8445 3745 White 18
6 PM Fri 35 35 N 17 6542 6542 1842 White 8
7 PM Fri 29 29 N 17 5236 4700 0 White 1
8 PM Fri 27 27 N 17 3396 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 27 27 N 17 3396 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 29 29 N 13 5236 4700 0 White 1
11 PM Fri 28 28 N 13 5016 4700 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sat 27 27 N 13 3396 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 26 26 N 12 3396 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 26 26 N 12 3396 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 27 27 N 12 3396 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 27 27 N 9 3396 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 27 27 N 9 3396 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 27 27 N 9 3396 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 30 30 N 9 5456 4700 0 White 2
8 AM Sat 34 34 N 9 6325 6279 1579 White 6
9 AM Sat 40 41 N 9 7813 7813 3113 White 15
10 AM Sat 45 48 N 5 9285 9285 4585 White 21
11 AM Sat 49 53 N 5 10352 10064 5364 White 26
12 Noon Sat 50 54 N 5 10563 10194 5494 White 27
1 PM Sat 51 55 NW 13 10772 10368 5668 White 28
2 PM Sat 52 55 NW 13 10772 10368 5668 White 28
3 PM Sat 52 54 NW 13 10563 10194 5494 White 27
4 PM Sat 50 50 NW 13 9707 9679 4979 White 23
5 PM Sat 46 46 NW 13 8865 8865 4165 White 19
6 PM Sat 40 40 NW 13 7603 7603 2903 White 14
7 PM Sat 35 35 N 13 6542 6542 1842 White 8
8 PM Sat 33 33 N 13 6109 6083 1383 White 5
9 PM Sat 32 32 N 13 5892 5886 1186 White 4
10 PM Sat 32 32 N 16 5892 5886 1186 White 4
11 PM Sat 31 31 N 16 5674 5674 974 White 3
12 Midnight Sun 30 30 N 16 5456 4700 0 White 2
1 AM Sun 29 29 N 17 5236 4700 0 White 1
2 AM Sun 28 28 N 17 5016 4700 0 White 0
3 AM Sun 27 27 N 17 3396 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 26 26 N 15 3396 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 25 25 N 15 3396 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 25 25 N 15 3396 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 27 27 N 14 3396 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 33 33 N 14 6109 6083 1383 White 5
9 AM Sun 41 42 N 14 8024 8024 3324 White 16
10 AM Sun 48 51 NE 8 9933 9815 5115 White 24
11 AM Sun 52 56 NE 8 10981 10541 5841 White 29
12 Noon Sun 53 57 NE 8 11187 10714 6014 White 30
1 PM Sun 54 58 N 3 11390 10890 6190 White 31
2 PM Sun 54 57 N 3 11187 10714 6014 White 30
3 PM Sun 53 55 N 3 10772 10368 5668 White 28
4 PM Sun 51 51 N 5 9933 9815 5115 White 24
5 PM Sun 48 48 N 5 9285 9285 4585 White 21
6 PM Sun 43 43 N 5 8234 8234 3534 White 17
7 PM Sun 39 39 N 5 7391 7391 2691 White 13
8 PM Sun 36 36 N 5 6756 6756 2056 White 10
9 PM Sun 35 35 N 5 6542 6542 1842 White 8
10 PM Sun 34 34 N 10 6325 6279 1579 White 6
11 PM Sun 33 33 N 10 6109 6083 1383 White 5
12 Midnight Mon 33 33 N 10 6109 6083 1383 White 5
1 AM Mon 32 32 N 10 5892 5886 1186 White 4
2 AM Mon 33 33 N 10 6109 6083 1383 White 5
3 AM Mon 33 33 N 10 6109 6083 1383 White 5
4 AM Mon 32 32 N 9 5892 5886 1186 White 4
5 AM Mon 31 31 N 9 5674 5674 974 White 3
6 AM Mon 30 30 N 9 5456 4700 0 White 2
7 AM Mon 31 31 N 9 5674 5674 974 White 3
8 AM Mon 37 37 N 9 6968 6968 2268 White 11
9 AM Mon 44 45 N 9 8655 8655 3955 White 19
10 AM Mon 50 51 W 14 9933 9815 5115 White 24
11 AM Mon 53 55 W 14 10772 10368 5668 White 28
12 Noon Mon 53 55 W 14 10772 10368 5668 White 28
1 PM Mon 51 53 W 14 10352 10064 5364 White 26
2 PM Mon 48 49 W 14 9494 9494 4794 White 22
3 PM Mon 44 45 W 14 8655 8655 3955 White 19
4 PM Mon 40 40 W 14 7603 7603 2903 White 14
5 PM Mon 37 37 W 14 6968 6968 2268 White 11
6 PM Mon 35 35 W 14 6542 6542 1842 White 8
7 PM Mon 33 33 W 14 6109 6083 1383 White 5
8 PM Mon 31 31 W 14 5674 5674 974 White 3
9 PM Mon 30 30 W 14 5456 4700 0 White 2
10 PM Mon 28 28 NW 12 5016 4700 0 White 0
11 PM Mon 27 27 NW 12 3396 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 26 26 NW 12 3396 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 25 25 NW 12 3396 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 24 24 NW 12 3396 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 24 24 NW 12 3396 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 24 24 N 14 3396 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 25 25 N 14 3396 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 26 26 N 14 3396 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 27 27 N 14 3396 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 29 29 N 14 5236 4700 0 White 1
9 AM Tue 31 31 N 14 5674 5674 974 White 3
10 AM Tue 34 35 W 8 6542 6542 1842 White 8
11 AM Tue 37 39 W 8 7391 7391 2691 White 13
12 Noon Tue 39 41 W 8 7813 7813 3113 White 15
1 PM Tue 42 44 W 8 8445 8445 3745 White 18
2 PM Tue 44 45 W 8 8655 8655 3955 White 19
3 PM Tue 45 46 W 8 8865 8865 4165 White 19
4 PM Tue 46 46 NW 8 8865 8865 4165 White 19
5 PM Tue 45 45 NW 8 8655 8655 3955 White 19
6 PM Tue 43 43 NW 8 8234 8234 3534 White 17
7 PM Tue 39 39 NW 8 7391 7391 2691 White 13
8 PM Tue 35 35 NW 8 6542 6542 1842 White 8
9 PM Tue 31 31 NW 8 5674 5674 974 White 3
10 PM Tue 28 28 N 9 5016 4700 0 White 0
11 PM Tue 25 25 N 9 3396 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 24 24 N 9 3396 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 24 24 N 9 3396 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 24 24 N 9 3396 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 25 25 N 9 3396 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 26 26 N 9 3396 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 27 27 N 9 3396 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 28 28 N 9 5016 4700 0 White 0
7 AM Wed 30 30 N 9 5456 4700 0 White 2
8 AM Wed 32 32 N 9 5892 5886 1186 White 4
9 AM Wed 34 35 N 9 6542 6542 1842 White 8
10 AM Wed 36 38 SW 12 7180 7180 2480 White 12
11 AM Wed 39 41 SW 12 7813 7813 3113 White 15
12 Noon Wed 42 45 SW 12 8655 8655 3955 White 19
1 PM Wed 45 48 SW 12 9285 9285 4585 White 21
2 PM Wed 47 49 SW 12 9494 9494 4794 White 22
3 PM Wed 48 49 SW 12 9494 9494 4794 White 22
4 PM Wed 49 49 W 9 9494 9494 4794 White 22
5 PM Wed 48 48 W 9 9285 9285 4585 White 21
6 PM Wed 46 46 W 9 8865 8865 4165 White 19
7 PM Wed 43 43 W 9 8234 8234 3534 White 17
8 PM Wed 39 39 W 9 7391 7391 2691 White 13
9 PM Wed 35 35 W 9 6542 6542 1842 White 8
10 PM Wed 32 32 N 7 5892 5886 1186 White 4
11 PM Wed 30 30 N 7 5456 4700 0 White 2
12 Midnight Thu 28 28 N 7 5016 4700 0 White 0
1 AM Thu 27 27 N 7 3396 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 27 27 N 7 3396 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 27 27 N 7 3396 4700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com