Detailed Predictions for: Ojai
Launch Altitude (f): 4700
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 50 50 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 51 51 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 55 55 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 59 60 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 62 64 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 65 69 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 68 74 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 70 77 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 71 78 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 72 78 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 72 77 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 71 74 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 69 70 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 64 64 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 60 60 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 57 57 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 55 55 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 53 53 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 52 52 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 50 50 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 49 49 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 48 48 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 47 47 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 46 46 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 45 45 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 46 46 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 49 49 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 52 53 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 55 57 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 57 60 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 59 64 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 60 66 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 61 67 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 62 68 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 62 67 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 61 64 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 60 61 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 56 56 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 53 53 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 51 51 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 49 49 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 48 48 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 47 47 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 46 46 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 45 45 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 44 44 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 43 43 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 43 43 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 42 42 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 43 43 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 46 46 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 49 50 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 52 54 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 54 58 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 57 62 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 58 64 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 59 65 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 60 66 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 60 65 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 59 62 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 58 59 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 55 55 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 51 51 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 49 49 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 48 48 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 47 47 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 46 46 NW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 45 45 NW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 44 44 NW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 43 43 NW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 42 42 NW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 42 42 NW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 41 41 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 42 42 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 46 46 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 49 50 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 52 54 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 55 59 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 57 62 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 59 65 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 60 66 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 61 67 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 61 66 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 60 63 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 59 60 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 56 56 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 52 52 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 50 50 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 49 49 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 48 48 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 47 47 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 46 46 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 45 45 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 44 44 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 43 43 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 43 43 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 42 42 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 43 43 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 47 47 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 50 51 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 53 55 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 55 58 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 57 62 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 59 65 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 60 66 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 61 67 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 61 65 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 60 63 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 59 60 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 56 56 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 52 52 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 50 50 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 48 48 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 47 47 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 46 46 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 45 45 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 44 44 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 43 43 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 43 43 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 42 42 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 42 42 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 44 44 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 47 47 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 50 50 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 53 55 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 55 58 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 57 60 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 59 63 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 60 64 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 61 65 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 61 64 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 60 62 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 59 60 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 56 56 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 52 52 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 50 50 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 48 48 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 47 47 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 46 46 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 45 45 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 44 44 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 43 43 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 43 43 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 42 42 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com