Detailed Predictions for: Ojai
Launch Altitude (f): 4700
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

14 DEC 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 49 49 E 10 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 48 48 E 10 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 49 49 E 10 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 51 51 E 9 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 51 51 E 9 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 54 54 E 9 4010 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 58 58 SE 8 5293 4700 0 Blue 1
11 AM Fri 60 60 SE 8 5817 5022 322 Blue 3
12 Noon Fri 61 61 SE 8 6076 5284 584 Blue 4
1 PM Fri 61 61 S 13 6076 5284 584 Blue 4
2 PM Fri 62 62 S 13 6335 5544 844 Blue 5
3 PM Fri 60 60 S 13 5817 5022 322 Blue 3
4 PM Fri 58 58 SE 7 5293 4700 0 Blue 1
5 PM Fri 52 52 SE 7 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 49 49 SE 7 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 46 46 SE 7 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 44 44 SE 7 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 41 41 SE 7 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 40 40 SE 5 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 41 41 SE 5 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 40 40 SE 5 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 38 38 E 6 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 39 39 E 6 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 39 39 E 6 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 40 40 SE 3 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 39 39 SE 3 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 40 40 SE 3 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 43 43 E 5 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 43 43 E 5 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 51 51 E 5 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 58 59 SE 6 5555 4700 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 61 63 SE 6 6592 5803 1103 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 63 65 SE 6 7155 6317 1617 Blue 8
1 PM Sat 64 66 SE 7 7519 6573 1873 Blue 9
2 PM Sat 66 67 SE 7 7879 6827 2127 Blue 10
3 PM Sat 64 64 SE 7 6849 6061 1361 Blue 7
4 PM Sat 62 62 SE 6 6335 5544 844 Blue 5
5 PM Sat 55 55 SE 6 4356 4700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 53 53 SE 6 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 49 49 SE 6 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 47 47 SE 6 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 44 44 SE 6 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 43 43 E 3 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 44 44 E 3 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 43 43 E 3 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 41 41 E 3 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 42 42 E 3 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 42 42 E 3 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 42 42 E 5 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 41 41 E 5 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 43 43 E 5 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 46 46 E 5 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 46 46 E 5 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 52 52 E 5 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 58 59 SE 9 5555 4700 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 61 62 SE 9 6335 5544 844 Blue 5
12 Noon Sun 63 64 SE 9 6849 6061 1361 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 64 65 SE 9 7155 6317 1617 Blue 8
2 PM Sun 65 66 SE 9 7519 6573 1873 Blue 9
3 PM Sun 63 63 SE 9 6592 5803 1103 Blue 6
4 PM Sun 61 61 S 9 6076 5284 584 Blue 4
5 PM Sun 55 55 S 9 4356 4700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 53 53 S 9 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 49 49 S 9 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 48 48 S 9 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 45 45 S 9 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 44 44 SE 5 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 45 45 SE 5 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 43 43 SE 5 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 42 42 SE 5 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 42 42 SE 5 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 42 42 SE 5 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 43 43 S 8 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 42 42 S 8 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 43 43 S 8 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 44 44 S 8 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 44 44 S 8 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 47 47 S 8 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 49 49 SW 5 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 50 50 SW 5 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 51 52 SW 5 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 51 51 SW 5 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 52 52 SW 5 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 50 50 SW 5 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 49 49 NW 5 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 45 45 NW 5 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 43 43 NW 5 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 41 41 NW 5 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 39 39 NW 5 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 37 37 NW 5 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 37 37 N 7 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 37 37 N 7 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 36 36 N 7 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 35 35 N 7 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 36 36 N 7 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 36 36 N 7 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 36 36 N 8 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 35 35 N 8 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 37 37 N 8 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 40 40 N 8 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 40 40 N 8 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 47 47 N 8 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 54 55 N 5 4356 4700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 57 59 N 5 5555 4700 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Tue 59 61 N 5 6076 5284 584 Blue 4
1 PM Tue 60 62 N 5 6335 5544 844 Blue 5
2 PM Tue 61 62 N 5 6335 5544 844 Blue 5
3 PM Tue 59 59 N 5 5555 4700 0 Blue 2
4 PM Tue 57 57 N 6 5029 4700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 50 50 N 6 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 47 47 N 6 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 43 43 N 6 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 42 42 N 6 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 39 39 N 6 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 38 38 N 6 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 38 38 N 6 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 37 37 N 6 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 35 35 N 6 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 36 36 N 6 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 36 36 N 6 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 36 36 N 6 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 35 35 N 6 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 37 37 N 6 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 40 40 N 6 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 40 40 N 6 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 47 48 N 6 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 54 55 NE 6 4356 4700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 57 59 NE 6 5555 4700 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Wed 60 62 NE 6 6335 5544 844 Blue 5
1 PM Wed 61 63 NE 6 6592 5803 1103 Blue 6
2 PM Wed 62 63 NE 6 6592 5803 1103 Blue 6
3 PM Wed 61 61 NE 6 6076 5284 584 Blue 4
4 PM Wed 59 59 E 3 5555 4700 0 Blue 2
5 PM Wed 55 55 E 3 4356 4700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 54 54 E 3 4010 4700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 51 51 E 3 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 50 50 E 3 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 48 48 E 3 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 48 48 NE 6 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 48 48 NE 6 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 47 47 NE 6 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 46 46 NE 6 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 47 47 NE 6 3983 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 47 47 NE 6 3983 4700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com