Detailed Predictions for: Ojai
Launch Altitude (f): 4700
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

16 OCT 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 46 46 NE 12 2661 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 47 47 NE 12 2661 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 45 45 NE 12 2661 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 50 N 10 2661 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 55 56 N 10 2661 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 61 63 N 10 6312 4972 272 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 65 68 NE 8 8052 6885 2185 Blue 8
12 Noon Tue 67 71 NE 8 10177 8006 3306 Blue 11
1 PM Tue 71 76 NE 8 12354 11021 6321 Blue 16
2 PM Tue 70 74 S 5 11550 9979 5279 Blue 14
3 PM Tue 71 74 S 5 11550 9979 5279 Blue 14
4 PM Tue 70 72 S 5 10681 8370 3670 Blue 12
5 PM Tue 68 68 NE 8 8052 6885 2185 Blue 8
6 PM Tue 67 67 NE 8 7679 6501 1801 Blue 7
7 PM Tue 63 63 NE 8 6312 4972 272 Blue 3
8 PM Tue 61 61 NE 12 5905 4700 0 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 59 59 NE 12 4226 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 57 57 NE 12 2661 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 56 56 NE 13 2661 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 55 55 NE 13 2661 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 54 54 NE 13 2661 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 53 53 E 13 2661 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 53 53 E 13 2661 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 51 51 E 13 2661 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 50 50 NE 13 2661 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 50 50 NE 13 2661 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 49 49 NE 13 2661 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 54 54 NE 13 2661 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 58 59 NE 13 4226 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 64 66 NE 13 7301 6298 1598 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 67 70 NE 6 9065 7637 2937 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 70 74 NE 6 11550 9979 5279 Blue 14
1 PM Wed 73 77 NE 6 13414 11447 6747 Blue 17
2 PM Wed 72 76 N 6 12354 11021 6321 Blue 16
3 PM Wed 73 76 N 6 12354 11021 6321 Blue 16
4 PM Wed 72 73 N 6 11120 8878 4178 Blue 13
5 PM Wed 70 70 N 2 9065 7637 2937 Blue 10
6 PM Wed 69 69 N 2 8420 7263 2563 Blue 9
7 PM Wed 65 65 N 2 6918 6096 1396 Blue 5
8 PM Wed 63 63 N 2 6312 4972 272 Blue 3
9 PM Wed 61 61 N 2 5905 4700 0 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 59 59 N 2 4226 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 58 58 NE 6 3405 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 57 57 NE 6 2661 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 56 56 NE 6 2661 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 55 NE 6 2661 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 55 55 NE 6 2661 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 53 53 NE 6 2661 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 52 52 NE 7 2661 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 52 52 NE 7 2661 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 51 51 NE 7 2661 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 55 55 NE 7 2661 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 60 61 NE 7 5905 4700 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 65 67 NE 7 7679 6501 1801 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 68 71 E 5 10177 8006 3306 Blue 11
12 Noon Thu 70 74 E 5 11550 9979 5279 Blue 14
1 PM Thu 73 78 E 5 13939 11865 7165 Blue 18
2 PM Thu 72 76 E 5 12354 11021 6321 Blue 16
3 PM Thu 73 76 E 5 12354 11021 6321 Blue 16
4 PM Thu 72 74 E 5 11550 9979 5279 Blue 14
5 PM Thu 70 70 N 3 9065 7637 2937 Blue 10
6 PM Thu 69 69 N 3 8420 7263 2563 Blue 9
7 PM Thu 65 65 N 3 6918 6096 1396 Blue 5
8 PM Thu 62 62 N 3 6109 4700 0 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 60 60 N 3 4979 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 58 58 N 3 3405 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 57 57 NE 8 2661 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 56 56 NE 8 2661 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 55 55 NE 8 2661 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 54 54 NE 8 2661 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 54 54 NE 8 2661 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 52 52 NE 8 2661 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 51 51 N 9 2661 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 51 51 N 9 2661 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 50 50 N 9 2661 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 55 55 N 9 2661 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 60 61 N 9 5905 4700 0 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 66 68 N 9 8052 6885 2185 Blue 8
11 AM Fri 70 73 NE 13 11120 8878 4178 Blue 13
12 Noon Fri 72 76 NE 13 12354 11021 6321 Blue 16
1 PM Fri 76 81 NE 13 15173 13801 9101 Blue 21
2 PM Fri 75 79 NE 13 14358 12261 7561 Blue 19
3 PM Fri 76 79 NE 13 14358 12261 7561 Blue 19
4 PM Fri 75 77 NE 13 13414 11447 6747 Blue 17
5 PM Fri 73 73 E 7 11120 8878 4178 Blue 13
6 PM Fri 72 72 E 7 10681 8370 3670 Blue 12
7 PM Fri 68 68 E 7 8052 6885 2185 Blue 8
8 PM Fri 65 65 E 7 6918 6096 1396 Blue 5
9 PM Fri 63 63 E 7 6312 4972 272 Blue 3
10 PM Fri 61 61 E 7 5905 4700 0 Blue 1
11 PM Fri 59 59 NE 10 4226 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 59 59 NE 10 4226 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 58 58 NE 10 3405 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 57 57 NE 10 2661 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 56 56 NE 10 2661 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 55 55 NE 10 2661 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 53 53 NE 12 2661 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 53 53 NE 12 2661 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 52 52 NE 12 2661 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 57 57 NE 12 2661 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 61 61 NE 12 5905 4700 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 67 69 NE 12 8420 7263 2563 Blue 9
11 AM Sat 70 73 E 15 11120 8878 4178 Blue 13
12 Noon Sat 73 76 E 15 12354 11021 6321 Blue 16
1 PM Sat 76 80 E 15 14769 13092 8392 Blue 20
2 PM Sat 75 78 E 15 13939 11865 7165 Blue 18
3 PM Sat 76 78 E 15 13939 11865 7165 Blue 18
4 PM Sat 74 75 E 15 11971 10587 5887 Blue 15
5 PM Sat 73 73 E 8 11120 8878 4178 Blue 13
6 PM Sat 71 71 E 8 10177 8006 3306 Blue 11
7 PM Sat 67 67 E 8 7679 6501 1801 Blue 7
8 PM Sat 64 64 E 8 6530 5875 1175 Blue 4
9 PM Sat 62 62 E 8 6109 4700 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sat 60 60 E 8 4979 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 59 59 NE 8 4226 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 58 58 NE 8 3405 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 57 57 NE 8 2661 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 56 56 NE 8 2661 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 56 56 NE 8 2661 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 54 54 NE 8 2661 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 52 52 NE 8 2661 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 52 52 NE 8 2661 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 51 51 NE 8 2661 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 56 56 NE 8 2661 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 60 60 NE 8 4979 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 65 66 NE 8 7301 6298 1598 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 68 70 E 7 9065 7637 2937 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 71 74 E 7 11550 9979 5279 Blue 14
1 PM Sun 74 77 E 7 13414 11447 6747 Blue 17
2 PM Sun 73 76 E 7 12354 11021 6321 Blue 16
3 PM Sun 74 76 E 7 12354 11021 6321 Blue 16
4 PM Sun 73 74 E 7 11550 9979 5279 Blue 14
5 PM Sun 71 71 SW 2 10177 8006 3306 Blue 11
6 PM Sun 70 70 SW 2 9065 7637 2937 Blue 10
7 PM Sun 67 67 SW 2 7679 6501 1801 Blue 7
8 PM Sun 64 64 SW 2 6530 5875 1175 Blue 4
9 PM Sun 63 63 SW 2 6312 4972 272 Blue 3
10 PM Sun 61 61 SW 2 5905 4700 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sun 59 59 N 3 4226 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 59 59 N 3 4226 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 58 58 N 3 3405 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 57 57 N 3 2661 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 57 57 N 3 2661 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 55 55 N 3 2661 4700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com