Detailed Predictions for: Ojai
Launch Altitude (f): 4700
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

21 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Tue 54 54 N 7 2654 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 54 54 N 7 2654 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 54 54 N 7 2654 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 55 55 N 9 2654 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 59 59 N 9 2923 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 65 65 N 9 6478 4700 0 Blue 3
10 AM Tue 70 71 NE 5 8619 7886 3186 Blue 9
11 AM Tue 74 76 NE 5 9877 9023 4323 Blue 14
12 Noon Tue 77 79 NE 5 10681 9813 5113 Blue 17
1 PM Tue 78 79 SE 3 10681 9813 5113 Blue 17
2 PM Tue 78 79 SE 3 10681 9813 5113 Blue 17
3 PM Tue 76 76 SE 3 9877 9023 4323 Blue 14
4 PM Tue 73 73 SE 3 9058 8368 3668 Blue 11
5 PM Tue 71 71 SE 3 8619 7886 3186 Blue 9
6 PM Tue 68 68 SE 3 7922 6443 1743 Blue 6
7 PM Tue 66 66 E 6 6970 5436 736 Blue 4
8 PM Tue 63 63 E 6 5456 4700 0 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 61 61 E 6 4116 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 59 59 NE 9 2923 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 56 56 NE 9 2654 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 55 55 NE 9 2654 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 54 54 NE 7 2654 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 54 54 NE 7 2654 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 54 54 NE 7 2654 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 54 54 NE 8 2654 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 52 52 NE 8 2654 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 50 50 NE 8 2654 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 51 51 NE 9 2654 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 56 56 NE 9 2654 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 64 65 NE 9 6478 4700 0 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 71 73 NE 9 9058 8368 3668 Blue 11
11 AM Wed 77 80 NE 9 11108 10160 5460 Blue 18
12 Noon Wed 80 83 NE 9 12937 11010 6310 Blue 21
1 PM Wed 81 83 E 7 12937 11010 6310 Blue 21
2 PM Wed 80 82 E 7 12277 10637 5937 Blue 20
3 PM Wed 77 78 E 7 10471 9462 4762 Blue 16
4 PM Wed 73 73 E 6 9058 8368 3668 Blue 11
5 PM Wed 70 70 E 6 8398 7403 2703 Blue 8
6 PM Wed 68 68 E 6 7922 6443 1743 Blue 6
7 PM Wed 66 66 E 7 6970 5436 736 Blue 4
8 PM Wed 64 64 E 7 5974 4700 0 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 63 63 E 7 5456 4700 0 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 62 62 E 6 4682 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 61 61 E 6 4116 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 60 60 E 6 3530 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 60 60 NE 5 3530 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 59 59 NE 5 2923 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 59 59 NE 5 2923 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 58 N 5 2654 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 56 56 N 5 2654 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 55 55 N 5 2654 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 56 56 N 5 2654 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 60 60 N 5 3530 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 66 67 N 5 7454 5946 1246 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 72 73 NE 5 9058 8368 3668 Blue 11
11 AM Thu 77 79 NE 5 10681 9813 5113 Blue 17
12 Noon Thu 79 81 NE 5 11578 10428 5728 Blue 19
1 PM Thu 80 82 NE 5 12277 10637 5937 Blue 20
2 PM Thu 78 79 NE 5 10681 9813 5113 Blue 17
3 PM Thu 75 75 NE 5 9523 8806 4106 Blue 13
4 PM Thu 71 71 NE 5 8619 7886 3186 Blue 9
5 PM Thu 68 68 NE 5 7922 6443 1743 Blue 6
6 PM Thu 65 65 NE 5 6478 4700 0 Blue 3
7 PM Thu 62 62 NE 5 4682 4700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 60 60 NE 5 3530 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 57 57 NE 5 2654 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 56 56 N 7 2654 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 55 55 N 7 2654 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 55 55 N 7 2654 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 56 56 N 7 2654 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 55 55 N 7 2654 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 55 55 N 7 2654 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 53 53 NW 7 2654 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 51 51 NW 7 2654 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 50 50 NW 7 2654 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 52 52 NW 7 2654 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 59 59 NW 7 2923 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 68 69 NW 7 8177 6928 2228 Blue 7
10 AM Fri 76 78 SW 7 10471 9462 4762 Blue 16
11 AM Fri 79 81 SW 7 11578 10428 5728 Blue 19
12 Noon Fri 78 80 SW 7 11108 10160 5460 Blue 18
1 PM Fri 75 77 SW 7 10228 9240 4540 Blue 15
2 PM Fri 70 71 SW 7 8619 7886 3186 Blue 9
3 PM Fri 65 65 SW 7 6478 4700 0 Blue 3
4 PM Fri 61 61 SW 6 4116 4700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 57 57 SW 6 2654 4700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 55 55 SW 6 2654 4700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 53 53 SW 6 2654 4700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 53 53 SW 6 2654 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 52 52 SW 6 2654 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 51 51 S 5 2654 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 51 51 S 5 2654 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 50 50 S 5 2654 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 50 50 S 5 2654 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 49 49 S 5 2654 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 49 49 S 5 2654 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 50 50 S 6 2654 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 52 52 S 6 2654 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 56 56 S 6 2654 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 60 60 S 6 3530 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 65 65 S 6 6478 4700 0 Blue 3
9 AM Sat 69 70 S 6 8398 7403 2703 Blue 8
10 AM Sat 73 75 S 9 9523 8806 4106 Blue 13
11 AM Sat 75 77 S 9 10228 9240 4540 Blue 15
12 Noon Sat 75 77 S 9 10228 9240 4540 Blue 15
1 PM Sat 75 77 S 9 10228 9240 4540 Blue 15
2 PM Sat 73 74 S 9 9276 8587 3887 Blue 12
3 PM Sat 72 72 S 9 8839 8149 3449 Blue 10
4 PM Sat 70 70 S 8 8398 7403 2703 Blue 8
5 PM Sat 67 67 S 8 7454 5946 1246 Blue 5
6 PM Sat 64 64 S 8 5974 4700 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sat 61 61 S 8 4116 4700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 58 58 S 8 2654 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 55 55 S 8 2654 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 52 52 S 3 2654 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 50 50 S 3 2654 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 48 48 S 3 2654 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 47 47 S 3 2654 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 47 47 S 3 2654 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 47 47 S 3 2654 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 49 49 S 5 2654 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 52 52 S 5 2654 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 56 56 S 5 2654 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 60 60 S 5 3530 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 64 64 S 5 5974 4700 0 Blue 2
9 AM Sun 68 68 S 5 7922 6443 1743 Blue 6
10 AM Sun 71 72 SW 10 8839 8149 3449 Blue 10
11 AM Sun 72 73 SW 10 9058 8368 3668 Blue 11
12 Noon Sun 72 73 SW 10 9058 8368 3668 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 72 73 SW 10 9058 8368 3668 Blue 11
2 PM Sun 71 72 SW 10 8839 8149 3449 Blue 10
3 PM Sun 70 70 SW 10 8398 7403 2703 Blue 8
4 PM Sun 68 68 SW 9 7922 6443 1743 Blue 6
5 PM Sun 67 67 SW 9 7454 5946 1246 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 65 65 SW 9 6478 4700 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sun 63 63 SW 9 5456 4700 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 60 60 SW 9 3530 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 58 58 SW 9 2654 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 56 56 SW 3 2654 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 53 53 SW 3 2654 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 51 51 SW 3 2654 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 49 49 SW 3 2654 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 47 47 SW 3 2654 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 46 46 SW 3 2654 4700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com