Detailed Predictions for: Ojai
Launch Altitude (f): 4700
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

19 AUG 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 63 63 N 9 3100 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 62 62 N 9 3100 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 67 67 N 9 3100 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 81 81 N 9 6549 4700 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sun 86 88 N 9 9874 8844 4144 Blue 8
10 AM Sun 88 92 N 9 11326 10134 5434 Blue 12
11 AM Sun 87 92 S 5 11326 10134 5434 Blue 12
12 Noon Sun 88 95 S 5 12420 11252 6552 Blue 15
1 PM Sun 90 97 S 5 13731 11893 7193 Blue 17
2 PM Sun 91 98 SW 1 14341 12240 7540 Blue 18
3 PM Sun 92 98 SW 1 14341 12240 7540 Blue 18
4 PM Sun 91 95 SW 1 12420 11252 6552 Blue 15
5 PM Sun 90 92 N 5 11326 10134 5434 Blue 12
6 PM Sun 90 91 N 5 10998 9816 5116 Blue 11
7 PM Sun 92 92 N 5 11326 10134 5434 Blue 12
8 PM Sun 89 89 N 2 10195 9171 4471 Blue 9
9 PM Sun 84 84 N 2 8559 6457 1757 Blue 4
10 PM Sun 80 80 N 2 5098 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 77 77 N 5 3100 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 73 73 N 5 3100 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 73 73 N 5 3100 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 70 70 N 3 3100 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 67 67 N 3 3100 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 65 65 N 3 3100 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 63 63 NW 2 3100 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 62 62 NW 2 3100 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 66 66 NW 2 3100 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 78 78 W 1 3100 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 82 84 W 1 8559 6457 1757 Blue 4
10 AM Mon 83 87 W 1 9550 8513 3813 Blue 7
11 AM Mon 83 88 SW 10 9874 8844 4144 Blue 8
12 Noon Mon 83 90 SW 10 10667 9495 4795 Blue 10
1 PM Mon 85 92 SW 10 11326 10134 5434 Blue 12
2 PM Mon 86 93 SW 8 11650 10600 5900 Blue 13
3 PM Mon 87 93 SW 8 11650 10600 5900 Blue 13
4 PM Mon 86 90 SW 8 10667 9495 4795 Blue 10
5 PM Mon 85 87 SW 7 9550 8513 3813 Blue 7
6 PM Mon 85 86 SW 7 9222 8021 3321 Blue 6
7 PM Mon 87 87 SW 7 9550 8513 3813 Blue 7
8 PM Mon 85 85 SW 7 8892 7391 2691 Blue 5
9 PM Mon 81 81 SW 7 6549 4700 0 Blue 1
10 PM Mon 78 78 SW 7 3100 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 75 75 SW 2 3100 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 72 72 SW 2 3100 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 72 72 SW 2 3100 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 69 69 SW 2 3100 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 67 67 SW 2 3100 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 65 65 SW 2 3100 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 64 64 W 1 3100 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 63 63 W 1 3100 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 67 67 W 1 3100 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 79 79 W 1 3969 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 83 85 W 1 8892 7391 2691 Blue 5
10 AM Tue 84 87 W 1 9550 8513 3813 Blue 7
11 AM Tue 84 89 SW 10 10195 9171 4471 Blue 9
12 Noon Tue 84 90 SW 10 10667 9495 4795 Blue 10
1 PM Tue 86 92 SW 10 11326 10134 5434 Blue 12
2 PM Tue 87 93 SW 10 11650 10600 5900 Blue 13
3 PM Tue 88 93 SW 10 11650 10600 5900 Blue 13
4 PM Tue 87 90 SW 10 10667 9495 4795 Blue 10
5 PM Tue 86 88 SW 7 9874 8844 4144 Blue 8
6 PM Tue 86 86 SW 7 9222 8021 3321 Blue 6
7 PM Tue 88 88 SW 7 9874 8844 4144 Blue 8
8 PM Tue 86 86 SW 7 9222 8021 3321 Blue 6
9 PM Tue 81 81 SW 7 6549 4700 0 Blue 1
10 PM Tue 78 78 SW 7 3100 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 76 76 SW 1 3100 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 72 72 SW 1 3100 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 72 72 SW 1 3100 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 70 70 SW 1 3100 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 67 67 SW 1 3100 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 66 66 SW 1 3100 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 64 64 NW 5 3100 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 63 63 NW 5 3100 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 67 67 NW 5 3100 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 79 79 NW 5 3969 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 84 86 NW 5 9222 8021 3321 Blue 6
10 AM Wed 85 89 NW 5 10195 9171 4471 Blue 9
11 AM Wed 84 89 SW 10 10195 9171 4471 Blue 9
12 Noon Wed 85 91 SW 10 10998 9816 5116 Blue 11
1 PM Wed 87 93 SW 10 11650 10600 5900 Blue 13
2 PM Wed 88 94 SW 10 11972 10928 6228 Blue 14
3 PM Wed 89 94 SW 10 11972 10928 6228 Blue 14
4 PM Wed 88 91 SW 10 10998 9816 5116 Blue 11
5 PM Wed 87 89 SW 10 10195 9171 4471 Blue 9
6 PM Wed 87 87 SW 10 9550 8513 3813 Blue 7
7 PM Wed 89 89 SW 10 10195 9171 4471 Blue 9
8 PM Wed 87 87 SW 10 9550 8513 3813 Blue 7
9 PM Wed 82 82 SW 10 7457 4700 0 Blue 2
10 PM Wed 79 79 SW 10 3969 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 76 76 N 7 3100 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 73 73 N 7 3100 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 72 72 N 7 3100 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 70 70 N 7 3100 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 68 68 N 7 3100 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 66 66 N 7 3100 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 64 64 N 5 3100 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 63 63 N 5 3100 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 67 67 N 5 3100 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 78 78 N 5 3100 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 83 85 N 5 8892 7391 2691 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 84 87 N 5 9550 8513 3813 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 83 88 SW 12 9874 8844 4144 Blue 8
12 Noon Thu 84 91 SW 12 10998 9816 5116 Blue 11
1 PM Thu 85 92 SW 12 11326 10134 5434 Blue 12
2 PM Thu 86 93 SW 12 11650 10600 5900 Blue 13
3 PM Thu 87 93 SW 12 11650 10600 5900 Blue 13
4 PM Thu 86 90 SW 12 10667 9495 4795 Blue 10
5 PM Thu 85 87 W 10 9550 8513 3813 Blue 7
6 PM Thu 85 86 W 10 9222 8021 3321 Blue 6
7 PM Thu 87 87 W 10 9550 8513 3813 Blue 7
8 PM Thu 85 85 W 10 8892 7391 2691 Blue 5
9 PM Thu 80 80 W 10 5098 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 77 77 W 10 3100 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 75 75 N 8 3100 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 71 71 N 8 3100 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 71 71 N 8 3100 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 69 69 N 8 3100 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 66 66 N 8 3100 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 65 65 N 8 3100 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 63 63 N 6 3100 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 62 62 N 6 3100 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 66 66 N 6 3100 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 78 78 N 6 3100 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 82 84 N 6 8559 6457 1757 Blue 4
10 AM Fri 83 86 N 6 9222 8021 3321 Blue 6
11 AM Fri 83 88 SW 14 9874 8844 4144 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 83 90 SW 14 10667 9495 4795 Blue 10
1 PM Fri 85 92 SW 14 11326 10134 5434 Blue 12
2 PM Fri 86 93 SW 14 11650 10600 5900 Blue 13
3 PM Fri 87 93 SW 14 11650 10600 5900 Blue 13
4 PM Fri 86 90 SW 14 10667 9495 4795 Blue 10
5 PM Fri 85 87 W 9 9550 8513 3813 Blue 7
6 PM Fri 85 86 W 9 9222 8021 3321 Blue 6
7 PM Fri 87 87 W 9 9550 8513 3813 Blue 7
8 PM Fri 85 85 W 9 8892 7391 2691 Blue 5
9 PM Fri 80 80 W 9 5098 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 77 77 W 9 3100 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 75 75 N 10 3100 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 71 71 N 10 3100 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 71 71 N 10 3100 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 69 69 N 10 3100 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 66 66 N 10 3100 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 65 65 N 10 3100 4700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com