Detailed Predictions for: Ojai
Launch Altitude (f): 4700
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

4 DEC 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 38 38 NE 16 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 37 37 NE 16 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 36 36 NE 16 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 36 36 NE 16 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 41 41 NE 16 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 46 46 NE 16 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 53 54 NE 14 3389 4700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 59 61 NE 14 5089 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 67 69 NE 14 9703 8290 3590 Blue 8
1 PM Fri 69 71 SE 3 10129 9420 4720 Blue 10
2 PM Fri 69 70 SE 3 9916 8865 4165 Blue 9
3 PM Fri 67 67 SE 3 8953 7071 2371 Blue 6
4 PM Fri 63 63 SE 3 6469 4843 143 Blue 2
5 PM Fri 51 51 SE 3 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 47 47 SE 3 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 43 43 SE 3 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 41 41 SE 3 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 42 42 SE 3 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 42 42 NE 6 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 40 40 NE 6 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 42 42 NE 6 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 42 42 NE 6 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 40 40 NE 6 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 39 39 NE 6 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 38 38 NE 6 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 37 37 NE 6 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 36 36 NE 6 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 36 36 NE 5 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 41 41 NE 5 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 45 45 NE 5 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 51 52 NE 6 2895 4700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 57 59 NE 6 4608 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 64 66 NE 6 8370 6420 1720 Blue 5
1 PM Sat 66 68 SE 7 9489 7693 2993 Blue 7
2 PM Sat 66 67 SE 7 8953 7071 2371 Blue 6
3 PM Sat 64 64 SE 7 7131 5082 382 Blue 3
4 PM Sat 60 60 SW 3 4849 4700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 50 50 SW 3 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 46 46 SW 3 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 42 42 N 3 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 41 41 N 3 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 41 41 N 3 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 42 42 N 5 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 40 40 N 5 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 41 41 N 5 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 41 41 N 6 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 40 40 N 6 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 39 39 N 6 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 38 38 N 7 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 37 37 N 7 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 36 36 N 7 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 36 36 N 6 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 40 40 N 6 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 45 45 N 6 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 50 51 E 7 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 55 57 E 7 4123 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 61 63 E 7 6469 4843 143 Blue 2
1 PM Sun 63 64 E 7 7131 5082 382 Blue 3
2 PM Sun 63 64 E 7 7131 5082 382 Blue 3
3 PM Sun 62 62 E 7 5771 4700 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sun 60 60 W 6 4849 4700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 54 54 W 6 3389 4700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 52 52 W 6 2895 4700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 50 50 N 3 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 49 49 N 3 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 49 49 N 3 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 49 49 N 8 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 48 48 N 8 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 49 49 N 8 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 49 49 NE 17 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 48 48 NE 17 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 47 47 NE 17 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 47 47 NE 17 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 46 46 NE 17 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 46 46 NE 17 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 46 46 NE 17 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 48 48 NE 17 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 51 51 NE 17 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 54 55 NE 24 3635 4700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 57 59 NE 24 4608 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 60 62 NE 24 5771 4700 0 Blue 1
1 PM Mon 61 63 NE 25 6469 4843 143 Blue 2
2 PM Mon 61 62 NE 25 5771 4700 0 Blue 1
3 PM Mon 60 60 NE 25 4849 4700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 59 59 NE 20 4608 4700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 56 56 NE 20 3879 4700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 54 54 NE 20 3389 4700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 53 53 NE 20 3142 4700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 53 53 NE 20 3142 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 53 53 NE 20 3142 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 53 53 NE 20 3142 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 52 52 NE 20 2895 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 53 53 NE 20 3142 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 53 53 NE 21 3142 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 52 52 NE 21 2895 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 52 52 NE 21 2895 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 52 52 NE 21 2895 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 51 51 NE 21 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 51 51 NE 21 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 51 51 NE 21 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 54 54 NE 21 3389 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 56 56 NE 21 3879 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 59 60 NE 17 4849 4700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 62 64 NE 17 7131 5082 382 Blue 3
12 Noon Tue 66 68 NE 17 9489 7693 2993 Blue 7
1 PM Tue 67 69 NE 18 9703 8290 3590 Blue 8
2 PM Tue 67 68 NE 18 9489 7693 2993 Blue 7
3 PM Tue 66 66 NE 18 8370 6420 1720 Blue 5
4 PM Tue 64 64 NE 13 7131 5082 382 Blue 3
5 PM Tue 58 58 NE 13 4366 4700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 56 56 NE 13 3879 4700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 54 54 N 9 3389 4700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 53 53 N 9 3142 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 53 53 N 9 3142 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 53 53 N 8 3142 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 52 52 N 8 2895 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 53 53 N 8 3142 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 53 53 N 8 3142 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 52 52 N 8 2895 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 51 51 N 8 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 51 51 N 6 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 50 50 N 6 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 50 50 N 6 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 50 50 NE 6 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 52 52 NE 6 2895 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 54 54 NE 6 3389 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 57 58 NE 7 4366 4700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 60 62 NE 7 5771 4700 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 63 65 NE 7 7764 5736 1036 Blue 4
1 PM Wed 64 66 S 10 8370 6420 1720 Blue 5
2 PM Wed 64 65 S 10 7764 5736 1036 Blue 4
3 PM Wed 63 63 S 10 6469 4843 143 Blue 2
4 PM Wed 61 61 SW 6 5089 4700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 54 54 SW 6 3389 4700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 52 52 SW 6 2895 4700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 50 50 N 5 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 49 49 N 5 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 49 49 N 5 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 49 49 N 6 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 48 48 N 6 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 49 49 N 6 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 49 49 N 6 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 48 48 N 6 2884 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 48 48 N 6 2884 4700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com