Detailed Predictions for: Ojai
Launch Altitude (f): 4700
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

24 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 56 56 E 3 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 53 53 E 3 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 55 55 E 3 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 64 64 E 3 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 73 75 E 3 4822 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 78 82 E 3 8004 7477 2777 Blue 7
11 AM Sat 79 85 S 8 8471 7991 3291 Blue 10
12 Noon Sat 81 88 S 8 9212 8443 3743 Blue 13
1 PM Sat 83 90 S 8 9805 8868 4168 Blue 15
2 PM Sat 84 91 S 10 10098 9165 4465 Blue 16
3 PM Sat 84 90 S 10 9805 8868 4168 Blue 15
4 PM Sat 84 88 S 10 9212 8443 3743 Blue 13
5 PM Sat 83 85 S 10 8471 7991 3291 Blue 10
6 PM Sat 82 83 S 10 8111 7777 3077 Blue 8
7 PM Sat 82 82 S 10 8004 7477 2777 Blue 7
8 PM Sat 77 77 S 10 5705 4700 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sat 71 71 S 10 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 67 67 S 10 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 65 65 NW 2 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 63 63 NW 2 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 63 63 NW 2 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 62 62 W 3 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 60 60 W 3 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 59 59 W 3 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 57 57 W 3 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 56 56 W 3 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 58 58 W 3 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 66 66 NW 3 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 74 76 NW 3 5218 4700 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 79 83 NW 3 8111 7777 3077 Blue 8
11 AM Sun 80 86 SW 8 8674 8098 3398 Blue 11
12 Noon Sun 82 89 SW 8 9510 8649 3949 Blue 14
1 PM Sun 83 90 SW 8 9805 8868 4168 Blue 15
2 PM Sun 84 91 W 8 10098 9165 4465 Blue 16
3 PM Sun 84 90 W 8 9805 8868 4168 Blue 15
4 PM Sun 84 88 W 8 9212 8443 3743 Blue 13
5 PM Sun 83 85 W 8 8471 7991 3291 Blue 10
6 PM Sun 82 82 W 8 8004 7477 2777 Blue 7
7 PM Sun 82 82 W 8 8004 7477 2777 Blue 7
8 PM Sun 77 77 N 9 5705 4700 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sun 72 72 N 9 4198 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 69 69 N 9 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 67 67 N 6 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 65 65 N 6 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 65 65 N 6 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 64 64 N 6 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 63 63 N 6 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 62 62 N 6 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 60 60 N 6 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 59 59 N 6 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 61 61 N 6 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 68 68 N 6 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 76 77 N 6 5705 4700 0 Blue 2
10 AM Mon 80 83 N 6 8111 7777 3077 Blue 8
11 AM Mon 81 84 S 12 8264 7884 3184 Blue 9
12 Noon Mon 83 87 S 12 8913 8237 3537 Blue 12
1 PM Mon 84 89 S 12 9510 8649 3949 Blue 14
2 PM Mon 85 89 S 12 9510 8649 3949 Blue 14
3 PM Mon 85 89 S 12 9510 8649 3949 Blue 14
4 PM Mon 85 87 S 12 8913 8237 3537 Blue 12
5 PM Mon 84 85 S 12 8471 7991 3291 Blue 10
6 PM Mon 83 83 S 12 8111 7777 3077 Blue 8
7 PM Mon 83 83 S 12 8111 7777 3077 Blue 8
8 PM Mon 78 78 S 12 6182 4818 118 Blue 3
9 PM Mon 73 73 S 12 4407 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 69 69 S 12 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 67 67 N 6 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 66 66 N 6 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 65 65 N 6 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 64 64 N 6 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 63 63 N 6 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 62 62 N 6 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 60 60 N 6 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 59 59 N 6 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 60 60 N 6 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 68 68 N 6 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 75 77 N 6 5705 4700 0 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 79 82 N 6 8004 7477 2777 Blue 7
11 AM Tue 80 86 SW 9 8674 8098 3398 Blue 11
12 Noon Tue 82 89 SW 9 9510 8649 3949 Blue 14
1 PM Tue 83 91 SW 9 10098 9165 4465 Blue 16
2 PM Tue 84 91 SW 9 10098 9165 4465 Blue 16
3 PM Tue 84 90 SW 9 9805 8868 4168 Blue 15
4 PM Tue 84 88 SW 9 9212 8443 3743 Blue 13
5 PM Tue 83 85 SW 9 8471 7991 3291 Blue 10
6 PM Tue 82 83 SW 9 8111 7777 3077 Blue 8
7 PM Tue 82 82 SW 9 8004 7477 2777 Blue 7
8 PM Tue 77 77 SW 9 5705 4700 0 Blue 2
9 PM Tue 72 72 SW 9 4198 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 68 68 SW 9 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 66 66 NE 5 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 65 65 NE 5 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 64 64 NE 5 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 63 63 NE 5 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 62 62 NE 5 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 61 61 NE 5 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 59 59 NE 5 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 58 58 NE 5 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 60 60 NE 5 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 67 67 NE 5 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 75 77 NE 5 5705 4700 0 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 79 83 NE 5 8111 7777 3077 Blue 8
11 AM Wed 80 86 S 10 8674 8098 3398 Blue 11
12 Noon Wed 82 89 S 10 9510 8649 3949 Blue 14
1 PM Wed 83 91 S 10 10098 9165 4465 Blue 16
2 PM Wed 84 91 S 10 10098 9165 4465 Blue 16
3 PM Wed 84 90 S 10 9805 8868 4168 Blue 15
4 PM Wed 84 88 S 10 9212 8443 3743 Blue 13
5 PM Wed 83 85 S 10 8471 7991 3291 Blue 10
6 PM Wed 82 83 S 10 8111 7777 3077 Blue 8
7 PM Wed 82 82 S 10 8004 7477 2777 Blue 7
8 PM Wed 78 78 S 10 6182 4818 118 Blue 3
9 PM Wed 73 73 S 10 4407 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 70 70 S 10 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 68 68 NE 7 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 67 67 NE 7 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 66 66 NE 7 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 66 66 NE 7 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 65 65 NE 7 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 63 63 NE 7 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 62 62 NE 7 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 61 61 NE 7 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 62 62 NE 7 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 69 69 NE 7 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 76 78 NE 7 6182 4818 118 Blue 3
10 AM Thu 80 84 NE 7 8264 7884 3184 Blue 9
11 AM Thu 81 87 SW 8 8913 8237 3537 Blue 12
12 Noon Thu 82 89 SW 8 9510 8649 3949 Blue 14
1 PM Thu 83 90 SW 8 9805 8868 4168 Blue 15
2 PM Thu 84 91 SW 8 10098 9165 4465 Blue 16
3 PM Thu 84 90 SW 8 9805 8868 4168 Blue 15
4 PM Thu 84 88 SW 8 9212 8443 3743 Blue 13
5 PM Thu 83 85 SW 8 8471 7991 3291 Blue 10
6 PM Thu 82 83 SW 8 8111 7777 3077 Blue 8
7 PM Thu 82 82 SW 8 8004 7477 2777 Blue 7
8 PM Thu 77 77 SW 8 5705 4700 0 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 72 72 SW 8 4198 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 68 68 SW 8 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 66 66 N 6 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 65 65 N 6 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 64 64 N 6 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 63 63 N 6 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 62 62 N 6 4190 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 61 61 N 6 4190 4700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com