Detailed Predictions for: Ojai
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.51624419593214, -119.2046327531341, 4700
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

16 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 56 56 N 3 4 3406 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 57 57 N 3 4 3509 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 57 57 N 4 5 3509 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 56 56 N 4 5 3406 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 55 55 N 4 5 3303 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 55 55 N 4 5 3303 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 54 54 N 4 5 3200 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 57 57 N 4 5 3509 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 55 55 NNW 4 5 3303 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 65 66 NNW 4 5 4437 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 70 72 NNW 4 5 5790 4745 45 Blue 2
11 AM Thu 72 77 SSW 5 6 7683 6534 1834 Blue 7
12 Noon Thu 73 79 SSW 5 6 8408 7278 2578 Blue 9
1 PM Thu 74 80 SSW 5 6 8764 7643 2943 Blue 10
2 PM Thu 75 81 SSW 5 6 9116 8003 3303 Blue 11
3 PM Thu 75 80 SSW 5 6 8764 7643 2943 Blue 10
4 PM Thu 76 79 SSW 5 6 8408 7278 2578 Blue 9
5 PM Thu 74 75 S 6 8 6941 5771 1071 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 72 72 S 6 8 5790 4745 45 Blue 2
7 PM Thu 69 69 S 6 8 4747 4700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 58 58 S 4 5 3612 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 53 53 S 4 5 3097 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 50 50 S 4 5 2789 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 48 48 NE 2 2 2583 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 46 46 NE 2 2 2428 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 47 47 NE 2 2 2480 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 47 47 ENE 2 2 2480 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 47 47 ENE 2 2 2480 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 44 44 ENE 2 2 2428 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 44 44 ENE 2 2 2428 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 43 43 ENE 2 2 2428 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 47 47 ENE 2 2 2480 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 45 45 ESE 3 4 2428 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 59 60 ESE 3 4 3818 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 66 69 ESE 3 4 4747 4700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 70 75 SSE 10 13 6941 5771 1071 Blue 5
12 Noon Fri 70 76 SSE 10 13 7314 6155 1455 Blue 6
1 PM Fri 72 78 SSE 10 13 8047 6908 2208 Blue 8
2 PM Fri 74 80 SSE 9 11 8764 7643 2943 Blue 10
3 PM Fri 74 79 SSE 9 11 8408 7278 2578 Blue 9
4 PM Fri 75 78 SSE 9 11 8047 6908 2208 Blue 8
5 PM Fri 73 74 SSE 10 13 6562 5381 681 Blue 4
6 PM Fri 70 70 SSE 10 13 4997 4700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 67 67 SSE 10 13 4540 4700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 56 56 SE 6 8 3406 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 50 50 SE 6 8 2789 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 47 47 SE 6 8 2480 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 44 44 ESE 8 9 2428 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 42 42 ESE 8 9 2428 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 44 44 ESE 8 9 2428 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 43 43 ESE 8 9 2428 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 43 43 ESE 8 9 2428 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 40 40 ESE 8 9 2428 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 40 40 ESE 6 8 2428 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 39 39 ESE 6 8 2428 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 43 43 ESE 6 8 2428 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 41 41 ESE 5 6 2428 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 57 58 ESE 5 6 3612 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 65 68 ESE 5 6 4644 4700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 70 75 S 8 9 6941 5771 1071 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 70 76 S 8 9 7314 6155 1455 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 73 79 S 8 9 8408 7278 2578 Blue 9
2 PM Sat 75 81 SSW 8 9 9116 8003 3303 Blue 11
3 PM Sat 75 80 SSW 8 9 8764 7643 2943 Blue 10
4 PM Sat 76 79 SSW 8 9 8408 7278 2578 Blue 9
5 PM Sat 75 76 SSW 8 9 7314 6155 1455 Blue 6
6 PM Sat 73 73 SSW 8 9 6179 4987 287 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 70 70 SSW 8 9 4997 4700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 62 62 NW 3 4 4024 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 58 58 NW 3 4 3612 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 56 56 NW 3 4 3406 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 54 54 N 3 4 3200 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 52 52 N 3 4 2994 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 53 53 N 3 4 3097 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 53 53 N 3 4 3097 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 53 53 N 3 4 3097 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 51 51 N 3 4 2892 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 51 51 N 3 4 2892 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 50 50 N 3 4 2789 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 53 53 N 3 4 3097 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 51 51 NNW 4 5 2892 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 61 62 NNW 4 5 4024 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 66 69 NNW 4 5 4747 4700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 69 73 SW 9 11 6179 4987 287 Blue 3
12 Noon Sun 69 74 SW 9 11 6562 5381 681 Blue 4
1 PM Sun 71 77 SW 9 11 7683 6534 1834 Blue 7
2 PM Sun 72 77 SW 11 17 7683 6534 1834 Blue 7
3 PM Sun 72 76 SW 11 17 7314 6155 1455 Blue 6
4 PM Sun 73 76 SW 11 17 7314 6155 1455 Blue 6
5 PM Sun 72 73 WSW 9 11 6179 4987 287 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 69 69 WSW 9 11 4747 4700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 67 67 WSW 9 11 4540 4700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 58 58 NW 5 6 3612 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 54 54 NW 5 6 3200 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 52 52 NW 5 6 2994 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 50 50 NNW 6 8 2789 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 48 48 NNW 6 8 2583 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 50 50 NNW 6 8 2789 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 49 49 N 8 9 2686 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 49 49 N 8 9 2686 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 47 47 N 8 9 2480 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 47 47 N 8 9 2480 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 46 46 N 8 9 2428 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 49 49 N 8 9 2686 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 48 48 N 8 9 2583 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 60 61 N 8 9 3921 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 66 69 N 8 9 4747 4700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 69 73 S 11 17 6179 4987 287 Blue 3
12 Noon Mon 70 75 S 11 17 6941 5771 1071 Blue 5
1 PM Mon 72 78 S 11 17 8047 6908 2208 Blue 8
2 PM Mon 73 78 S 11 17 8047 6908 2208 Blue 8
3 PM Mon 73 77 S 11 17 7683 6534 1834 Blue 7
4 PM Mon 74 77 S 11 17 7683 6534 1834 Blue 7
5 PM Mon 73 74 SSW 9 11 6562 5381 681 Blue 4
6 PM Mon 71 71 SSW 9 11 5396 4700 0 Blue 1
7 PM Mon 69 69 SSW 9 11 4747 4700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 63 63 NNW 5 6 4128 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 59 59 NNW 5 6 3715 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 58 58 NNW 5 6 3612 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 56 56 N 6 8 3406 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 55 55 N 6 8 3303 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 56 56 N 6 8 3406 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 55 55 NNE 6 8 3303 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 55 55 NNE 6 8 3303 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 53 53 NNE 6 8 3097 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 54 54 NNE 6 8 3200 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 53 53 NNE 6 8 3097 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 56 56 NNE 6 8 3406 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 54 54 ENE 8 9 3200 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 64 65 ENE 8 9 4334 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 69 72 ENE 8 9 5790 4745 45 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 72 77 E 14 21 7683 6534 1834 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 72 78 E 14 21 8047 6908 2208 Blue 8
1 PM Tue 74 80 E 14 21 8764 7643 2943 Blue 10
2 PM Tue 75 81 SE 13 20 9116 8003 3303 Blue 11
3 PM Tue 75 80 SE 13 20 8764 7643 2943 Blue 10
4 PM Tue 76 79 SE 13 20 8408 7278 2578 Blue 9
5 PM Tue 75 76 S 10 13 7314 6155 1455 Blue 6
6 PM Tue 73 73 S 10 13 6179 4987 287 Blue 3
7 PM Tue 71 71 S 10 13 5396 4700 0 Blue 1
8 PM Tue 64 64 NNE 4 5 4231 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 60 60 NNE 4 5 3818 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 59 59 NNE 4 5 3715 4700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com