Detailed Predictions for: Ojai
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.51624419593214, -119.2046327531341, 4700
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

17 APR 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 53 53 NNE 6 12 6887 4700 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sat 53 53 NNE 5 12 6887 4700 0 Blue 2
2 AM Sat 52 52 N 5 12 5833 4700 0 Blue 1
3 AM Sat 52 52 N 5 12 5833 4700 0 Blue 1
4 AM Sat 51 51 N 6 12 4603 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 51 51 N 6 12 4603 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 54 54 SE 5 9 7230 4700 0 Blue 3
7 AM Sat 56 56 WSW 4 6 7904 6863 2163 Blue 5
8 AM Sat 59 60 N 3 4 9215 8199 3499 Blue 9
9 AM Sat 61 63 WNW 4 5 10124 9168 4468 Blue 12
10 AM Sat 64 68 SW 4 6 13300 10654 5954 White 17
11 AM Sat 66 72 S 5 7 14123 13647 8947 White 21
12 Noon Sat 66 73 S 6 9 14328 14328 9628 White 22
1 PM Sat 66 73 SSW 8 11 14328 14328 9628 White 22
2 PM Sat 66 73 SSW 9 13 14328 14328 9628 White 22
3 PM Sat 66 71 SSW 8 13 13918 12806 8106 White 20
4 PM Sat 65 68 SW 8 12 13300 10654 5954 White 17
5 PM Sat 65 66 SW 7 12 11088 10093 5393 Blue 15
6 PM Sat 63 63 SSE 6 11 10124 9168 4468 Blue 12
7 PM Sat 62 62 E 5 11 9853 8848 4148 Blue 11
8 PM Sat 60 60 N 5 10 9215 8199 3499 Blue 9
9 PM Sat 58 58 N 6 12 8566 7538 2838 Blue 7
10 PM Sat 55 55 N 7 14 7569 5769 1069 Blue 4
11 PM Sat 53 53 N 8 15 6887 4700 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sun 55 55 ESE 8 16 7569 5769 1069 Blue 4
1 AM Sun 58 58 WSW 8 17 8566 7538 2838 Blue 7
2 AM Sun 60 60 N 8 18 9215 8199 3499 Blue 9
3 AM Sun 60 60 WSW 8 18 9215 8199 3499 Blue 9
4 AM Sun 60 60 SE 9 18 9215 8199 3499 Blue 9
5 AM Sun 59 59 N 9 19 8892 7870 3170 Blue 8
6 AM Sun 62 62 NNE 7 14 9853 8848 4148 Blue 11
7 AM Sun 65 65 NNE 6 10 10789 9800 5100 Blue 14
8 AM Sun 68 69 NNE 5 5 13506 11036 6336 White 18
9 AM Sun 68 70 ENE 4 4 13712 11870 7170 White 19
10 AM Sun 68 72 SE 2 4 14123 13647 8947 White 21
11 AM Sun 68 74 SSW 1 3 14532 14532 9832 White 23
12 Noon Sun 69 76 SSW 2 4 14940 14940 10240 White 25
1 PM Sun 71 79 SW 3 6 15549 15549 10849 White 28
2 PM Sun 73 80 SW 4 7 15752 15752 11052 White 29
3 PM Sun 74 80 WSW 4 6 15752 15752 11052 White 29
4 PM Sun 75 79 WSW 4 6 15549 15549 10849 White 28
5 PM Sun 76 78 WSW 5 5 15347 15347 10647 White 27
6 PM Sun 74 74 WNW 5 8 14532 14532 9832 White 23
7 PM Sun 72 72 NW 5 10 14123 13647 8947 White 21
8 PM Sun 70 70 N 6 13 13712 11870 7170 White 19
9 PM Sun 68 68 WSW 6 13 13300 10654 5954 White 17
10 PM Sun 66 66 ESE 7 14 11088 10093 5393 Blue 15
11 PM Sun 64 64 N 7 15 10301 9486 4786 Blue 13
12 Midnight Mon 63 63 SE 7 16 10124 9168 4468 Blue 12
1 AM Mon 63 63 WSW 8 16 10124 9168 4468 Blue 12
2 AM Mon 62 62 N 8 17 9853 8848 4148 Blue 11
3 AM Mon 62 62 WSW 8 17 9853 8848 4148 Blue 11
4 AM Mon 62 62 ESE 8 17 9853 8848 4148 Blue 11
5 AM Mon 62 62 N 8 17 9853 8848 4148 Blue 11
6 AM Mon 65 65 ESE 7 13 10789 9800 5100 Blue 14
7 AM Mon 68 68 WSW 6 9 13300 10654 5954 White 17
8 AM Mon 71 72 N 5 5 14123 13647 8947 White 21
9 AM Mon 72 74 NW 5 7 14532 14532 9832 White 23
10 AM Mon 73 77 W 6 9 15144 15144 10444 White 26
11 AM Mon 74 80 SW 6 11 15752 15752 11052 White 29
12 Noon Mon 76 83 SSW 7 11 16358 16358 11658 White 32
1 PM Mon 79 86 SSW 8 10 16962 16962 12262 White 35
2 PM Mon 81 87 SSW 9 10 17162 17162 12462 White 36
3 PM Mon 78 82 SW 8 11 16157 16157 11457 White 31
4 PM Mon 75 77 SW 7 11 15144 15144 10444 White 26
5 PM Mon 71 71 SW 6 11 13918 12806 8106 White 20
6 PM Mon 70 70 SSE 6 10 13712 11870 7170 White 19
7 PM Mon 68 68 ENE 5 9 13300 10654 5954 White 17
8 PM Mon 66 66 N 4 8 11088 10093 5393 Blue 15
9 PM Mon 65 65 N 5 10 10789 9800 5100 Blue 14
10 PM Mon 64 64 N 5 11 10301 9486 4786 Blue 13
11 PM Mon 63 63 N 6 13 10124 9168 4468 Blue 12

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com