Detailed Predictions for: Pine Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.63616582095678, -119.3070454653368, 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 4000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 57 57 WSW 7 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 54 54 ESE 7 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 51 51 N 7 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 51 51 N 7 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 51 51 N 7 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 50 50 N 7 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 50 50 N 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 50 50 N 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 50 50 N 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 55 57 ESE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 61 64 SW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 67 71 NW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 68 73 WNW 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 70 74 W 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 71 74 SW 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 69 71 SW 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 68 69 SW 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 67 67 SW 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 64 64 SSE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 62 62 E 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 60 60 N 7 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 58 58 N 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 56 56 N 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 54 54 N 9 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 53 53 N 9 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 52 52 NNE 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 51 51 NNE 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 51 51 NNE 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 51 51 NNE 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 51 51 NNE 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 50 50 NNE 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 50 50 NNE 8 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 50 50 NNE 8 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 53 55 NE 7 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 56 59 E 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 59 63 ESE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 61 66 SE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 64 68 SE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 67 70 SSE 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 66 68 S 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 65 66 S 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 65 65 S 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 63 63 SE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 62 62 ENE 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 61 61 NNE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 59 59 NNE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 56 56 NNE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 54 54 NNE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 53 53 NNE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 52 52 NNE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 51 51 NNE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 51 51 NNE 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 50 50 NNE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 50 50 NNE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 50 50 NNE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 50 50 NNE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 49 49 NNE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 54 56 ENE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 58 61 ESE 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 62 66 SSE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 62 67 SSE 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 61 65 S 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 61 64 S 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 59 61 S 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 57 58 S 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 54 54 S 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 52 52 SE 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 49 49 E 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 47 47 NE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 46 46 NE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 46 46 ENE 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 46 46 ENE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com