Detailed Predictions for: Pine Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 4000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

17 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 40 40 W 13 4902 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 39 39 W 13 4902 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 38 38 W 13 4902 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 37 37 NW 14 4902 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 36 36 NW 14 4902 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 37 37 NW 14 4902 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 37 38 NW 12 4902 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 37 38 NW 12 4902 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 36 37 NW 12 4902 7000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 37 38 NW 9 4902 7000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 43 44 NW 9 5938 7000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 49 49 NW 9 7764 7000 0 Blue 1
4 PM Fri 54 54 NW 7 9206 8529 1529 White 6
5 PM Fri 55 55 NW 7 9429 8914 1914 White 7
6 PM Fri 55 55 NW 7 9429 8914 1914 White 7
7 PM Fri 55 55 NW 7 9429 8914 1914 White 7
8 PM Fri 55 55 NW 7 9429 8914 1914 White 7
9 PM Fri 55 55 NW 7 9429 8914 1914 White 7
10 PM Fri 55 55 E 10 9429 8914 1914 White 7
11 PM Fri 49 49 E 10 7764 7000 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sat 43 43 E 10 5576 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 37 37 E 10 4902 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 33 33 E 10 4902 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 32 32 E 10 4902 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 30 30 E 12 4902 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 28 28 E 12 4902 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 27 27 E 12 4902 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 29 29 E 12 4902 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 34 34 E 12 4902 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 41 42 E 12 5211 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 48 50 SW 6 8165 7000 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 52 54 SW 6 9206 8529 1529 White 6
12 Noon Sat 55 58 SW 6 10096 10039 3039 White 10
1 PM Sat 57 59 SW 6 10312 10312 3312 White 11
2 PM Sat 59 60 SW 6 10530 10530 3530 White 12
3 PM Sat 60 61 SW 6 10745 10745 3745 White 13
4 PM Sat 60 60 NE 1 10530 10530 3530 White 12
5 PM Sat 58 58 NE 1 10096 10039 3039 White 10
6 PM Sat 55 55 NE 1 9429 8914 1914 White 7
7 PM Sat 51 51 NE 1 8536 7339 339 White 3
8 PM Sat 48 48 NE 1 7356 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 45 45 NE 1 6295 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 43 43 SE 3 5576 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 42 42 SE 3 5211 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 43 43 SE 3 5576 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 43 43 SE 3 5576 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 42 42 SE 3 5211 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 41 41 SE 3 4902 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 39 39 NW 6 4902 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 35 35 NW 6 4902 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 33 33 NW 6 4902 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 34 34 NW 6 4902 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 39 39 NW 6 4902 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 47 48 NW 6 7356 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 54 56 N 5 9651 9294 2294 White 8
11 AM Sun 60 62 N 5 10959 10959 3959 White 14
12 Noon Sun 63 65 N 5 11600 11600 4600 White 17
1 PM Sun 64 66 N 5 11814 11814 4814 White 18
2 PM Sun 63 64 N 5 11387 11387 4387 White 16
3 PM Sun 60 60 N 5 10530 10530 3530 White 12
4 PM Sun 56 56 NW 7 9651 9294 2294 White 8
5 PM Sun 51 51 NW 7 8536 7339 339 White 3
6 PM Sun 47 47 NW 7 6997 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 43 43 NW 7 5576 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 41 41 NW 7 4902 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 41 41 NW 7 4902 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 43 43 SW 7 5576 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 47 47 SW 7 6997 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 51 51 SW 7 8536 7339 339 White 3
1 AM Mon 52 52 SW 7 8759 7742 742 White 4
2 AM Mon 48 48 SW 7 7356 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 43 43 SW 7 5576 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 39 39 NW 9 4902 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 39 39 NW 9 4902 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 43 43 NW 9 5576 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 48 48 NW 9 7356 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 54 54 NW 9 9206 8529 1529 White 6
9 AM Mon 60 61 NW 9 10745 10745 3745 White 13
10 AM Mon 63 64 NW 13 11387 11387 4387 White 16
11 AM Mon 62 64 NW 13 11387 11387 4387 White 16
12 Noon Mon 57 59 NW 13 10312 10312 3312 White 11
1 PM Mon 51 53 NW 13 8982 8138 1138 White 5
2 PM Mon 44 45 NW 13 6295 7000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 37 37 NW 13 4902 7000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 34 34 NW 13 4902 7000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 34 34 NW 13 4902 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 34 34 NW 13 4902 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 35 35 NW 13 4902 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 40 40 NW 13 4902 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 45 45 NW 13 6295 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 49 49 NW 10 7764 7000 0 Blue 1
11 PM Mon 51 51 NW 10 8536 7339 339 White 3
12 Midnight Tue 52 52 NW 10 8759 7742 742 White 4
1 AM Tue 51 51 NW 10 8536 7339 339 White 3
2 AM Tue 50 50 NW 10 8165 7000 0 Blue 2
3 AM Tue 49 49 NW 10 7764 7000 0 Blue 1
4 AM Tue 49 49 NW 13 7764 7000 0 Blue 1
5 AM Tue 51 51 NW 13 8536 7339 339 White 3
6 AM Tue 54 54 NW 13 9206 8529 1529 White 6
7 AM Tue 57 57 NW 13 9873 9669 2669 White 9
8 AM Tue 61 61 NW 13 10745 10745 3745 White 13
9 AM Tue 64 65 NW 13 11600 11600 4600 White 17
10 AM Tue 67 68 NW 13 12238 12238 5238 White 20
11 AM Tue 68 70 NW 13 12663 12663 5663 White 22
12 Noon Tue 69 71 NW 13 12874 12874 5874 White 23
1 PM Tue 69 71 NW 13 12874 12874 5874 White 23
2 PM Tue 67 68 NW 13 12238 12238 5238 White 20
3 PM Tue 64 64 NW 13 11387 11387 4387 White 16
4 PM Tue 60 60 NW 13 10530 10530 3530 White 12
5 PM Tue 57 57 NW 13 9873 9669 2669 White 9
6 PM Tue 54 54 NW 13 9206 8529 1529 White 6
7 PM Tue 51 51 NW 13 8536 7339 339 White 3
8 PM Tue 49 49 NW 13 7764 7000 0 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 46 46 NW 13 6648 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 43 43 N 9 5576 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 40 40 N 9 4902 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 38 38 N 9 4902 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 36 36 N 9 4902 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 36 36 N 9 4902 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 37 37 N 9 4902 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 39 39 N 9 4902 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 42 42 N 9 5211 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 46 46 N 9 6648 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 51 51 N 9 8536 7339 339 White 3
8 AM Wed 56 56 N 9 9651 9294 2294 White 8
9 AM Wed 60 61 N 9 10745 10745 3745 White 13
10 AM Wed 64 66 N 9 11814 11814 4814 White 18
11 AM Wed 67 69 N 9 12451 12451 5451 White 21
12 Noon Wed 69 71 N 9 12874 12874 5874 White 23
1 PM Wed 70 72 N 9 13083 13083 6083 White 24
2 PM Wed 71 72 N 9 13083 13083 6083 White 24
3 PM Wed 71 71 N 9 12874 12874 5874 White 23
4 PM Wed 70 70 N 9 12663 12663 5663 White 22
5 PM Wed 69 69 N 9 12451 12451 5451 White 21
6 PM Wed 68 68 N 9 12238 12238 5238 White 20
7 PM Wed 66 66 N 9 11814 11814 4814 White 18
8 PM Wed 64 64 N 9 11387 11387 4387 White 16
9 PM Wed 60 60 N 9 10530 10530 3530 White 12
10 PM Wed 56 56 N 7 9651 9294 2294 White 8
11 PM Wed 51 51 N 7 8536 7339 339 White 3
12 Midnight Thu 46 46 N 7 6648 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 42 42 N 7 5211 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 39 39 N 7 4902 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 39 39 N 7 4902 7000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com