Detailed Predictions for: Pine Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 4000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

19 AUG 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 57 57 N 12 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 56 56 N 12 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 61 61 N 12 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 70 70 N 12 5386 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 72 74 N 12 8673 7000 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 76 80 N 12 10838 9650 2650 Blue 9
11 AM Sun 81 86 S 3 13546 11783 4783 Blue 15
12 Noon Sun 85 92 S 3 16647 15211 8211 Blue 21
1 PM Sun 88 95 S 3 17641 16564 9564 Blue 24
2 PM Sun 88 95 N 3 17641 16564 9564 Blue 24
3 PM Sun 88 94 N 3 17121 16140 9140 Blue 23
4 PM Sun 86 90 N 3 15837 14024 7024 Blue 19
5 PM Sun 84 86 N 10 13546 11783 4783 Blue 15
6 PM Sun 80 81 N 10 11176 9979 2979 Blue 10
7 PM Sun 78 78 N 10 10020 8983 1983 Blue 7
8 PM Sun 72 72 N 8 7635 7000 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sun 68 68 N 8 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 67 67 N 8 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 65 65 N 6 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 64 64 N 6 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 65 65 N 6 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 63 63 NW 5 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 61 61 NW 5 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 60 60 NW 5 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 58 58 W 2 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 57 57 W 2 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 61 61 W 2 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 69 69 W 5 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 70 72 W 5 7635 7000 0 Blue 1
10 AM Mon 74 78 W 5 10020 8983 1983 Blue 7
11 AM Mon 78 83 SW 8 11843 10787 3787 Blue 12
12 Noon Mon 82 89 SW 8 15375 13390 6390 Blue 18
1 PM Mon 84 91 SW 8 16288 14630 7630 Blue 20
2 PM Mon 84 91 W 8 16288 14630 7630 Blue 20
3 PM Mon 84 90 W 8 15837 14024 7024 Blue 19
4 PM Mon 82 86 W 8 13546 11783 4783 Blue 15
5 PM Mon 80 82 W 8 11511 10444 3444 Blue 11
6 PM Mon 77 78 W 8 10020 8983 1983 Blue 7
7 PM Mon 74 74 W 8 8673 7000 0 Blue 3
8 PM Mon 69 69 W 8 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 65 65 W 8 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 64 64 W 8 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 63 63 SW 5 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 62 62 SW 5 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 62 62 SW 5 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 61 61 SW 5 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 59 59 SW 5 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 57 57 SW 5 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 56 56 SW 3 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 55 55 SW 3 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 59 59 SW 3 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 68 68 SW 3 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 70 72 SW 3 7635 7000 0 Blue 1
10 AM Tue 74 77 SW 3 9688 8645 1645 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 80 85 W 9 12872 11454 4454 Blue 14
12 Noon Tue 83 89 W 9 15375 13390 6390 Blue 18
1 PM Tue 86 92 W 9 16647 15211 8211 Blue 21
2 PM Tue 86 92 W 9 16647 15211 8211 Blue 21
3 PM Tue 86 91 W 9 16288 14630 7630 Blue 20
4 PM Tue 84 87 W 9 14185 12109 5109 Blue 16
5 PM Tue 81 83 W 6 11843 10787 3787 Blue 12
6 PM Tue 78 78 W 6 10020 8983 1983 Blue 7
7 PM Tue 75 75 W 6 9014 7603 603 Blue 4
8 PM Tue 70 70 W 6 5386 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 65 65 W 6 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 64 64 W 6 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 63 63 SW 5 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 61 61 SW 5 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 62 62 SW 5 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 60 60 SW 5 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 58 58 SW 5 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 57 57 SW 5 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 55 NE 3 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 54 54 NE 3 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 59 59 NE 3 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 68 68 NE 3 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 70 72 NE 3 7635 7000 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 74 78 NE 3 10020 8983 1983 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 79 84 W 13 12172 11122 4122 Blue 13
12 Noon Wed 83 89 W 13 15375 13390 6390 Blue 18
1 PM Wed 86 92 W 13 16647 15211 8211 Blue 21
2 PM Wed 86 92 W 13 16647 15211 8211 Blue 21
3 PM Wed 86 91 W 13 16288 14630 7630 Blue 20
4 PM Wed 84 88 W 13 14796 12724 5724 Blue 17
5 PM Wed 81 83 W 13 11843 10787 3787 Blue 12
6 PM Wed 78 78 W 13 10020 8983 1983 Blue 7
7 PM Wed 75 75 W 13 9014 7603 603 Blue 4
8 PM Wed 70 70 W 13 5386 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 65 65 W 13 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 64 64 W 13 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 63 63 N 10 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 61 61 N 10 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 62 62 N 10 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 60 60 N 10 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 58 58 N 10 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 57 57 N 10 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 55 55 NE 8 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 54 54 NE 8 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 59 59 NE 8 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 68 68 NE 8 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 70 72 NE 8 7635 7000 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 74 77 NE 8 9688 8645 1645 Blue 6
11 AM Thu 79 84 W 14 12172 11122 4122 Blue 13
12 Noon Thu 83 90 W 14 15837 14024 7024 Blue 19
1 PM Thu 86 93 W 14 16884 15693 8693 Blue 22
2 PM Thu 86 93 W 14 16884 15693 8693 Blue 22
3 PM Thu 86 92 W 14 16647 15211 8211 Blue 21
4 PM Thu 84 88 W 14 14796 12724 5724 Blue 17
5 PM Thu 81 83 NW 15 11843 10787 3787 Blue 12
6 PM Thu 78 79 NW 15 10496 9318 2318 Blue 8
7 PM Thu 75 75 NW 15 9014 7603 603 Blue 4
8 PM Thu 69 69 NW 15 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 65 65 NW 15 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 63 63 NW 15 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 62 62 N 14 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 60 60 N 14 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 61 61 N 14 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 59 59 N 14 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 57 57 N 14 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 56 56 N 14 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 54 54 N 9 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 53 53 N 9 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 57 57 N 9 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 66 66 N 9 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 68 70 N 9 5386 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 72 75 N 9 9014 7603 603 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 78 83 W 20 11843 10787 3787 Blue 12
12 Noon Fri 81 88 W 20 14796 12724 5724 Blue 17
1 PM Fri 84 91 W 20 16288 14630 7630 Blue 20
2 PM Fri 84 91 W 20 16288 14630 7630 Blue 20
3 PM Fri 84 90 W 20 15837 14024 7024 Blue 19
4 PM Fri 82 86 W 20 13546 11783 4783 Blue 15
5 PM Fri 79 81 NW 21 11176 9979 2979 Blue 10
6 PM Fri 76 77 NW 21 9688 8645 1645 Blue 6
7 PM Fri 73 73 NW 21 8289 7000 0 Blue 2
8 PM Fri 68 68 NW 21 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 63 63 NW 21 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 62 62 NW 21 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 61 61 N 16 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 59 59 N 16 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 60 60 N 16 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 58 58 N 16 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 56 56 N 16 5007 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 55 55 N 16 5007 7000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com