Detailed Predictions for: Pine Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 4000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

18 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 37 37 N 24 5479 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 37 37 N 24 5479 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 39 39 N 24 5479 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 42 42 N 24 5479 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 48 49 N 24 6091 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 51 53 N 24 6658 7000 0 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 55 57 N 16 7734 7000 0 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 57 60 N 16 8656 7719 719 Blue 11
1 PM Fri 60 63 N 16 10227 8608 1608 Blue 14
2 PM Fri 60 63 N 16 10227 8608 1608 Blue 14
3 PM Fri 60 62 N 16 9773 8229 1229 Blue 13
4 PM Fri 58 59 N 16 8246 7455 455 Blue 10
5 PM Fri 54 54 N 16 6929 7000 0 Blue 5
6 PM Fri 49 49 N 16 6091 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 44 44 N 16 5479 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 43 43 N 16 5479 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 42 42 N 16 5479 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 42 42 N 16 5479 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 42 42 N 16 5479 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 42 42 N 16 5479 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 44 44 N 16 5479 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 42 42 N 13 5479 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 43 43 N 13 5479 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 44 44 N 13 5479 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 41 41 N 14 5479 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 41 41 N 14 5479 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 43 43 N 14 5479 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 45 45 N 14 5479 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 51 52 N 14 6385 7000 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sat 54 56 N 14 7467 7000 0 Blue 7
11 AM Sat 57 60 N 12 8656 7719 719 Blue 11
12 Noon Sat 60 64 N 12 10558 9167 2167 Blue 15
1 PM Sat 62 66 N 12 11044 10183 3183 Blue 17
2 PM Sat 62 66 N 12 11044 10183 3183 Blue 17
3 PM Sat 62 65 N 12 10886 9709 2709 Blue 16
4 PM Sat 60 61 N 12 9223 7983 983 Blue 12
5 PM Sat 56 56 N 24 7467 7000 0 Blue 7
6 PM Sat 52 52 N 24 6385 7000 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 47 47 N 24 5719 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 46 46 N 24 5533 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 45 45 N 24 5479 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 45 45 N 24 5479 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 45 45 N 25 5479 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 45 45 N 25 5479 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 46 46 N 25 5533 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 45 45 N 25 5479 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 46 46 N 25 5533 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 46 46 N 25 5533 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 44 44 N 29 5479 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 44 44 N 29 5479 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 46 46 N 29 5533 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 48 48 N 29 5905 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 54 55 N 29 7198 7000 0 Blue 6
10 AM Sun 57 59 N 29 8246 7455 455 Blue 10
11 AM Sun 59 62 N 16 9773 8229 1229 Blue 13
12 Noon Sun 62 66 N 16 11044 10183 3183 Blue 17
1 PM Sun 64 68 N 16 11221 10836 3836 Blue 19
2 PM Sun 64 68 N 16 11221 10836 3836 Blue 19
3 PM Sun 64 67 N 16 11133 10511 3511 Blue 18
4 PM Sun 62 63 N 16 10227 8608 1608 Blue 14
5 PM Sun 58 58 N 16 7999 7189 189 Blue 9
6 PM Sun 53 53 N 16 6658 7000 0 Blue 4
7 PM Sun 48 48 N 16 5905 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 47 47 N 16 5719 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 46 46 N 16 5533 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 46 46 N 16 5533 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 46 46 NE 14 5533 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 46 46 NE 14 5533 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 48 48 NE 14 5905 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 46 46 NE 14 5533 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 47 47 NE 14 5719 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 48 48 NE 14 5905 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 45 45 NE 14 5479 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 45 45 NE 14 5479 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 47 47 NE 14 5719 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 50 50 NE 14 6217 7000 0 Blue 1
9 AM Mon 56 57 NE 14 7734 7000 0 Blue 8
10 AM Mon 60 62 NE 14 9773 8229 1229 Blue 13
11 AM Mon 64 67 N 7 11133 10511 3511 Blue 18
12 Noon Mon 66 70 N 7 11399 11118 4118 Blue 21
1 PM Mon 69 73 N 7 11665 11384 4384 Blue 24
2 PM Mon 69 73 N 7 11665 11384 4384 Blue 24
3 PM Mon 69 72 N 7 11577 11295 4295 Blue 23
4 PM Mon 67 68 N 7 11221 10836 3836 Blue 19
5 PM Mon 63 63 NE 7 10227 8608 1608 Blue 14
6 PM Mon 58 58 NE 7 7999 7189 189 Blue 9
7 PM Mon 53 53 NE 7 6658 7000 0 Blue 4
8 PM Mon 52 52 NE 7 6385 7000 0 Blue 3
9 PM Mon 51 51 NE 7 6297 7000 0 Blue 2
10 PM Mon 51 51 NE 7 6297 7000 0 Blue 2
11 PM Mon 51 51 NE 12 6297 7000 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Tue 51 51 NE 12 6297 7000 0 Blue 2
1 AM Tue 53 53 NE 12 6658 7000 0 Blue 4
2 AM Tue 51 51 NE 12 6297 7000 0 Blue 2
3 AM Tue 52 52 NE 12 6385 7000 0 Blue 3
4 AM Tue 53 53 NE 12 6658 7000 0 Blue 4
5 AM Tue 50 50 NE 10 6217 7000 0 Blue 1
6 AM Tue 50 50 NE 10 6217 7000 0 Blue 1
7 AM Tue 52 52 NE 10 6385 7000 0 Blue 3
8 AM Tue 55 55 NE 10 7198 7000 0 Blue 6
9 AM Tue 62 63 NE 10 10227 8608 1608 Blue 14
10 AM Tue 66 68 NE 10 11221 10836 3836 Blue 19
11 AM Tue 69 72 NW 7 11577 11295 4295 Blue 23
12 Noon Tue 72 76 NW 7 11927 11649 4649 Blue 27
1 PM Tue 75 79 NW 7 13559 11911 4911 Blue 30
2 PM Tue 75 79 NW 7 13559 11911 4911 Blue 30
3 PM Tue 75 78 NW 7 12914 11824 4824 Blue 29
4 PM Tue 72 73 NW 7 11665 11384 4384 Blue 24
5 PM Tue 67 67 NW 7 11133 10511 3511 Blue 18
6 PM Tue 62 62 NW 7 9773 8229 1229 Blue 13
7 PM Tue 55 55 NW 7 7198 7000 0 Blue 6
8 PM Tue 54 54 NW 7 6929 7000 0 Blue 5
9 PM Tue 52 52 NW 7 6385 7000 0 Blue 3
10 PM Tue 52 52 NW 7 6385 7000 0 Blue 3
11 PM Tue 52 52 N 7 6385 7000 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Wed 52 52 N 7 6385 7000 0 Blue 3
1 AM Wed 54 54 N 7 6929 7000 0 Blue 5
2 AM Wed 53 53 N 7 6658 7000 0 Blue 4
3 AM Wed 53 53 N 7 6658 7000 0 Blue 4
4 AM Wed 54 54 N 7 6929 7000 0 Blue 5
5 AM Wed 51 51 N 7 6297 7000 0 Blue 2
6 AM Wed 51 51 N 7 6297 7000 0 Blue 2
7 AM Wed 53 53 N 7 6658 7000 0 Blue 4
8 AM Wed 56 56 N 7 7467 7000 0 Blue 7
9 AM Wed 61 62 N 7 9773 8229 1229 Blue 13
10 AM Wed 65 67 N 7 11133 10511 3511 Blue 18
11 AM Wed 68 71 NW 9 11488 11207 4207 Blue 22
12 Noon Wed 70 74 NW 9 11753 11472 4472 Blue 25
1 PM Wed 73 77 NW 9 12247 11737 4737 Blue 28
2 PM Wed 73 77 NW 9 12247 11737 4737 Blue 28
3 PM Wed 73 76 NW 9 11927 11649 4649 Blue 27
4 PM Wed 70 71 NW 9 11488 11207 4207 Blue 22
5 PM Wed 65 65 NW 9 10886 9709 2709 Blue 16
6 PM Wed 58 58 NW 9 7999 7189 189 Blue 9
7 PM Wed 52 52 NW 9 6385 7000 0 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 50 50 NW 9 6217 7000 0 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 48 48 NW 9 5905 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 48 48 NW 9 5905 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 49 49 NE 13 6091 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 48 48 NE 13 5905 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 50 50 NE 13 6217 7000 0 Blue 1
2 AM Thu 49 49 NE 13 6091 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 49 49 NE 13 6091 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 50 50 NE 13 6217 7000 0 Blue 1

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com