Detailed Predictions for: Pine Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 4000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

25 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Mon 41 41 NE 10 4885 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 45 45 NE 10 4885 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 45 45 NE 10 4885 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 47 47 NE 10 4885 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 51 52 NE 10 6523 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 56 59 NE 10 8560 8195 1195 Blue 5
11 AM Mon 62 66 NE 10 9984 9091 2091 Blue 12
12 Noon Mon 67 72 NE 10 11769 10841 3841 Blue 18
1 PM Mon 71 77 NE 10 13564 12288 5288 Blue 23
2 PM Mon 74 79 NE 2 15541 12853 5853 Blue 25
3 PM Mon 75 79 NE 2 15541 12853 5853 Blue 25
4 PM Mon 74 76 NE 2 12916 12003 5003 Blue 22
5 PM Mon 70 71 NE 5 11477 10545 3545 Blue 17
6 PM Mon 64 64 NE 5 9392 8787 1787 Blue 10
7 PM Mon 57 57 NE 5 8322 7940 940 Blue 3
8 PM Mon 51 51 N 12 5721 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 48 48 N 12 4885 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 47 47 N 12 4885 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 47 47 NE 8 4885 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 49 49 NE 8 4885 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 50 50 NE 8 4885 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 51 51 NE 8 5721 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 51 51 NE 8 5721 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 49 49 NE 8 4885 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 47 47 NE 8 4885 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 46 46 NE 8 4885 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 45 45 NE 8 4885 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 47 47 NE 9 4885 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 52 53 NE 9 7273 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 59 62 NE 9 8917 8551 1551 Blue 8
11 AM Tue 66 70 NE 9 11183 10247 3247 Blue 16
12 Noon Tue 70 75 NE 9 12632 11716 4716 Blue 21
1 PM Tue 73 79 NE 9 15541 12853 5853 Blue 25
2 PM Tue 75 80 N 3 16045 13309 6309 Blue 26
3 PM Tue 76 80 N 3 16045 13309 6309 Blue 26
4 PM Tue 76 78 N 3 14552 12572 5572 Blue 24
5 PM Tue 74 75 N 6 12632 11716 4716 Blue 21
6 PM Tue 70 70 N 6 11183 10247 3247 Blue 16
7 PM Tue 65 65 N 6 9677 8906 1906 Blue 11
8 PM Tue 61 61 E 8 8798 8432 1432 Blue 7
9 PM Tue 59 59 E 8 8560 8195 1195 Blue 5
10 PM Tue 58 58 E 8 8441 8077 1077 Blue 4
11 PM Tue 57 57 NE 10 8322 7940 940 Blue 3
12 Midnight Wed 56 56 NE 10 8204 7246 246 Blue 2
1 AM Wed 54 54 NE 10 7966 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 52 52 NE 10 6523 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 51 51 NE 10 5721 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 49 49 NE 10 4885 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 48 48 NE 14 4885 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 48 48 NE 14 4885 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 49 49 NE 14 4885 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 52 52 NE 14 6523 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 56 57 NE 14 8322 7940 940 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 61 64 NE 14 9392 8787 1787 Blue 10
11 AM Wed 66 70 E 14 11183 10247 3247 Blue 16
12 Noon Wed 70 75 E 14 12632 11716 4716 Blue 21
1 PM Wed 74 80 E 14 16045 13309 6309 Blue 26
2 PM Wed 76 81 E 3 16477 14295 7295 Blue 26
3 PM Wed 78 82 E 3 16901 15247 8247 Blue 27
4 PM Wed 78 80 E 3 16045 13309 6309 Blue 26
5 PM Wed 76 77 NE 2 13564 12288 5288 Blue 23
6 PM Wed 72 72 NE 2 11769 10841 3841 Blue 18
7 PM Wed 67 67 NE 2 10288 9363 2363 Blue 13
8 PM Wed 63 63 NE 2 9118 8669 1669 Blue 9
9 PM Wed 61 61 NE 2 8798 8432 1432 Blue 7
10 PM Wed 60 60 NE 2 8679 8314 1314 Blue 6
11 PM Wed 59 59 E 7 8560 8195 1195 Blue 5
12 Midnight Thu 58 58 E 7 8441 8077 1077 Blue 4
1 AM Thu 56 56 E 7 8204 7246 246 Blue 2
2 AM Thu 55 55 E 7 8085 7000 0 Blue 1
3 AM Thu 53 53 E 7 7273 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 52 52 E 7 6523 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 50 50 E 7 4885 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 49 49 E 7 4885 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 48 48 E 7 4885 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 49 49 E 7 4885 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 46 47 E 7 4885 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 46 49 E 7 4885 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 46 50 N 5 4885 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 50 55 N 5 8085 7000 0 Blue 1
1 PM Thu 56 62 N 5 8917 8551 1551 Blue 8
2 PM Thu 62 67 N 5 10288 9363 2363 Blue 13
3 PM Thu 68 72 N 5 11769 10841 3841 Blue 18
4 PM Thu 74 76 N 5 12916 12003 5003 Blue 22
5 PM Thu 78 79 NW 6 15541 12853 5853 Blue 25
6 PM Thu 80 80 NW 6 16045 13309 6309 Blue 26
7 PM Thu 80 80 NW 6 16045 13309 6309 Blue 26
8 PM Thu 78 78 NW 6 14552 12572 5572 Blue 24
9 PM Thu 76 76 NW 6 12916 12003 5003 Blue 22
10 PM Thu 73 73 NW 6 12059 11135 4135 Blue 19
11 PM Thu 69 69 NE 5 10887 9946 2946 Blue 15
12 Midnight Fri 64 64 NE 5 9392 8787 1787 Blue 10
1 AM Fri 59 59 NE 5 8560 8195 1195 Blue 5
2 AM Fri 55 55 NE 5 8085 7000 0 Blue 1
3 AM Fri 52 52 NE 5 6523 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 49 49 NE 5 4885 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 48 48 NE 5 4885 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 49 49 NE 5 4885 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 50 50 NE 5 4885 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 53 53 NE 5 7273 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 57 58 NE 5 8441 8077 1077 Blue 4
10 AM Fri 61 64 NE 5 9392 8787 1787 Blue 10
11 AM Fri 65 69 NW 6 10887 9946 2946 Blue 15
12 Noon Fri 69 74 NW 6 12347 11426 4426 Blue 20
1 PM Fri 73 79 NW 6 15541 12853 5853 Blue 25
2 PM Fri 76 81 NW 6 16477 14295 7295 Blue 26
3 PM Fri 79 83 NW 6 17316 15900 8900 Blue 28
4 PM Fri 81 83 NW 6 17316 15900 8900 Blue 28
5 PM Fri 82 83 NW 6 17316 15900 8900 Blue 28
6 PM Fri 82 82 NW 6 16901 15247 8247 Blue 27
7 PM Fri 80 80 NW 6 16045 13309 6309 Blue 26
8 PM Fri 78 78 NW 6 14552 12572 5572 Blue 24
9 PM Fri 74 74 NW 6 12347 11426 4426 Blue 20
10 PM Fri 69 69 NW 6 10887 9946 2946 Blue 15
11 PM Fri 65 65 N 6 9677 8906 1906 Blue 11
12 Midnight Sat 61 61 N 6 8798 8432 1432 Blue 7
1 AM Sat 57 57 N 6 8322 7940 940 Blue 3
2 AM Sat 54 54 N 6 7966 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 52 52 N 6 6523 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 50 50 N 6 4885 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 48 48 N 5 4885 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 48 48 N 5 4885 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 48 48 N 5 4885 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 49 49 N 5 4885 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 51 52 N 5 6523 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 53 56 N 5 8204 7246 246 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 56 60 NW 7 8679 8314 1314 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 60 65 NW 7 9677 8906 1906 Blue 11
1 PM Sat 65 71 NW 7 11477 10545 3545 Blue 17
2 PM Sat 70 75 NW 7 12632 11716 4716 Blue 21
3 PM Sat 74 78 NW 7 14552 12572 5572 Blue 24
4 PM Sat 78 80 NW 7 16045 13309 6309 Blue 26
5 PM Sat 81 82 NW 7 16901 15247 8247 Blue 27
6 PM Sat 82 82 NW 7 16901 15247 8247 Blue 27
7 PM Sat 82 82 NW 7 16901 15247 8247 Blue 27
8 PM Sat 81 81 NW 7 16477 14295 7295 Blue 26
9 PM Sat 78 78 NW 7 14552 12572 5572 Blue 24
10 PM Sat 74 74 NW 7 12347 11426 4426 Blue 20
11 PM Sat 69 69 N 6 10887 9946 2946 Blue 15
12 Midnight Sun 64 64 N 6 9392 8787 1787 Blue 10
1 AM Sun 59 59 N 6 8560 8195 1195 Blue 5
2 AM Sun 55 55 N 6 8085 7000 0 Blue 1
3 AM Sun 51 51 N 6 5721 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 48 48 N 6 4885 7000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com