Detailed Predictions for: Pine Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 4000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 46 46 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 47 47 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 51 51 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 55 56 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 58 60 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 60 64 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 63 68 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 65 72 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 66 73 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 67 73 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 67 72 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 66 69 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 64 65 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 60 60 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 55 55 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 52 52 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 50 50 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 49 49 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 48 48 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 46 46 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 45 45 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 44 44 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 43 43 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 42 42 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 41 41 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 42 42 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 44 44 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 46 47 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 48 50 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 49 53 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 51 56 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 52 58 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 53 59 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 53 59 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 53 58 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 53 56 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 51 52 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 49 49 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 46 46 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 44 44 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 43 43 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 42 42 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 41 41 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 40 40 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 39 39 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 39 39 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 38 38 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 37 37 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 37 37 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 38 38 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 40 40 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 42 43 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 44 46 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 46 50 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 48 53 NW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 49 55 NW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 49 55 NW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 50 56 NW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 50 55 NW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 50 53 NW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 49 50 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 46 46 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 44 44 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 43 43 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 42 42 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 41 41 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 40 40 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 40 40 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 39 39 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 38 38 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 38 38 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 37 37 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 37 37 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 38 38 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 41 41 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 43 44 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 45 47 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 47 51 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 49 54 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 50 56 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 51 57 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 52 58 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 52 57 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 52 55 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 50 51 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 48 48 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 45 45 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 44 44 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 42 42 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 42 42 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 41 41 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 40 40 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 39 39 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 39 39 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 38 38 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 37 37 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 37 37 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 38 38 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 40 40 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 42 43 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 44 46 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 46 49 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 48 53 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 49 55 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 49 55 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 50 56 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 50 54 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 50 53 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 48 49 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 46 46 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 43 43 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 42 42 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 41 41 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 40 40 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 39 39 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 38 38 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 38 38 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 37 37 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 36 36 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 36 36 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 36 36 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 38 38 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 40 40 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 42 42 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 44 46 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 45 48 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 46 49 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 48 52 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 48 52 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 49 53 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 49 52 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 49 51 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 47 48 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 46 46 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 43 43 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 42 42 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 41 41 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 40 40 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 40 40 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 39 39 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 38 38 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 38 38 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 37 37 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 37 37 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com