Detailed Predictions for: Pine Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 4000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

15 JUN 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 52 52 NW 9 5499 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 52 52 NW 9 5499 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 57 57 NW 9 5499 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 62 63 N 9 5835 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 65 68 N 9 6554 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 67 72 N 9 8605 7000 0 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 71 78 N 8 12113 9718 2718 Blue 10
12 Noon Sat 74 82 N 8 14509 12618 5618 Blue 14
1 PM Sat 75 84 N 8 15579 13800 6800 Blue 16
2 PM Sat 75 83 NW 13 15053 13221 6221 Blue 15
3 PM Sat 75 82 NW 13 14509 12618 5618 Blue 14
4 PM Sat 73 78 NW 13 12113 9718 2718 Blue 10
5 PM Sat 71 74 W 13 9382 8182 1182 Blue 6
6 PM Sat 70 71 W 13 8209 7000 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 68 68 W 13 6554 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 63 63 W 13 5835 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 59 59 W 13 5499 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 58 58 W 13 5499 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 55 55 N 10 5499 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 55 55 N 10 5499 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 55 55 N 10 5499 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 53 53 NW 9 5499 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 53 53 NW 9 5499 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 52 52 NW 9 5499 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 52 52 NW 6 5499 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 52 52 NW 6 5499 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 57 57 NW 6 5499 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 62 63 NW 6 5835 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 64 67 NW 6 6389 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 66 71 NW 6 8209 7000 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 69 76 NW 5 10732 8961 1961 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 72 80 NW 5 13360 11326 4326 Blue 12
1 PM Sun 73 82 NW 5 14509 12618 5618 Blue 14
2 PM Sun 73 81 NW 7 13945 11988 4988 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 73 80 NW 7 13360 11326 4326 Blue 12
4 PM Sun 71 76 NW 7 10732 8961 1961 Blue 8
5 PM Sun 69 72 NW 10 8605 7000 0 Blue 4
6 PM Sun 68 69 NW 10 6778 7000 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 67 67 NW 10 6389 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 62 62 NW 10 5696 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 58 58 NW 10 5499 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 56 56 NW 10 5499 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 54 54 N 8 5499 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 53 53 N 8 5499 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 53 53 N 8 5499 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 52 52 N 8 5499 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 52 52 N 8 5499 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 51 51 N 8 5499 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 51 51 NE 6 5499 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 51 51 NE 6 5499 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 56 56 NE 6 5499 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 61 62 NE 6 5696 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 64 66 NE 6 6251 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 66 70 NE 6 7806 7000 0 Blue 2
11 AM Mon 69 76 NW 8 10732 8961 1961 Blue 8
12 Noon Mon 72 80 NW 8 13360 11326 4326 Blue 12
1 PM Mon 73 81 NW 8 13945 11988 4988 Blue 13
2 PM Mon 73 81 NW 8 13945 11988 4988 Blue 13
3 PM Mon 73 79 NW 8 12751 10626 3626 Blue 11
4 PM Mon 71 75 NW 8 9762 8574 1574 Blue 7
5 PM Mon 70 73 NW 8 8996 7785 785 Blue 5
6 PM Mon 69 70 NW 8 7806 7000 0 Blue 2
7 PM Mon 68 68 NW 8 6554 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 63 63 NW 8 5835 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 60 60 NW 8 5499 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 59 59 NW 8 5499 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 57 57 NE 8 5499 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 56 56 NE 8 5499 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 56 56 NE 8 5499 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 54 54 NE 8 5499 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 54 54 NE 8 5499 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 54 54 NE 8 5499 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 54 54 E 9 5499 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 54 54 E 9 5499 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 59 59 E 9 5499 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 64 65 E 9 6112 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 67 70 E 9 7806 7000 0 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 69 74 E 9 9382 8182 1182 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 72 79 SW 12 12751 10626 3626 Blue 11
12 Noon Tue 75 83 SW 12 15053 13221 6221 Blue 15
1 PM Tue 76 84 SW 12 15579 13800 6800 Blue 16
2 PM Tue 76 84 SW 12 15579 13800 6800 Blue 16
3 PM Tue 76 82 SW 12 14509 12618 5618 Blue 14
4 PM Tue 74 78 SW 12 12113 9718 2718 Blue 10
5 PM Tue 73 76 W 9 10732 8961 1961 Blue 8
6 PM Tue 71 72 W 9 8605 7000 0 Blue 4
7 PM Tue 70 70 W 9 7806 7000 0 Blue 2
8 PM Tue 66 66 W 9 6251 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 62 62 W 9 5696 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 61 61 W 9 5557 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 59 59 W 10 5499 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 58 58 W 10 5499 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 58 58 W 10 5499 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 56 56 W 10 5499 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 56 56 W 10 5499 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 56 56 W 10 5499 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 56 56 NW 9 5499 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 56 56 NW 9 5499 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 60 60 NW 9 5499 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 65 66 NW 9 6251 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 68 71 NW 9 8209 7000 0 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 69 74 NW 9 9382 8182 1182 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 72 79 W 14 12751 10626 3626 Blue 11
12 Noon Wed 75 83 W 14 15053 13221 6221 Blue 15
1 PM Wed 76 85 W 14 16477 14358 7358 Blue 17
2 PM Wed 76 84 W 14 15579 13800 6800 Blue 16
3 PM Wed 76 83 W 14 15053 13221 6221 Blue 15
4 PM Wed 74 79 W 14 12751 10626 3626 Blue 11
5 PM Wed 73 76 NW 14 10732 8961 1961 Blue 8
6 PM Wed 71 72 NW 14 8605 7000 0 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 70 70 NW 14 7806 7000 0 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 66 66 NW 14 6251 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 62 62 NW 14 5696 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 61 61 NW 14 5557 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 59 59 W 9 5499 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 58 58 W 9 5499 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 58 58 W 9 5499 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 56 56 W 9 5499 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 56 56 W 9 5499 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 56 56 W 9 5499 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 56 56 NW 8 5499 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 56 56 NW 8 5499 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 60 60 NW 8 5499 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 65 66 NW 8 6251 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 68 71 NW 8 8209 7000 0 Blue 3
10 AM Thu 69 74 NW 8 9382 8182 1182 Blue 6
11 AM Thu 72 79 W 14 12751 10626 3626 Blue 11
12 Noon Thu 75 83 W 14 15053 13221 6221 Blue 15
1 PM Thu 76 85 W 14 16477 14358 7358 Blue 17
2 PM Thu 76 84 W 14 15579 13800 6800 Blue 16
3 PM Thu 76 83 W 14 15053 13221 6221 Blue 15
4 PM Thu 74 79 W 14 12751 10626 3626 Blue 11
5 PM Thu 73 76 W 14 10732 8961 1961 Blue 8
6 PM Thu 71 72 W 14 8605 7000 0 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 70 70 W 14 7806 7000 0 Blue 2
8 PM Thu 65 65 W 14 6112 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 61 61 W 14 5557 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 60 60 W 14 5499 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 58 58 W 14 5499 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 57 57 W 14 5499 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 57 57 W 14 5499 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 56 56 W 14 5499 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 56 56 W 14 5499 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 55 55 W 14 5499 7000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com