Detailed Predictions for: Pine Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 4000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

16 OCT 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 37 37 NE 15 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 37 37 NE 15 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 35 35 NE 15 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 40 40 NE 13 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 45 46 NE 13 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 48 50 NE 13 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 54 57 NE 10 7790 7000 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Tue 59 63 NE 10 11341 9405 2405 Blue 9
1 PM Tue 65 70 NE 10 15076 13683 6683 Blue 16
2 PM Tue 65 69 N 6 14658 12734 5734 Blue 15
3 PM Tue 64 67 N 6 13795 11700 4700 Blue 13
4 PM Tue 62 64 N 6 11780 10369 3369 Blue 10
5 PM Tue 59 59 NE 10 8550 7386 386 Blue 5
6 PM Tue 54 54 NE 10 6610 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 50 50 NE 10 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 48 48 NE 12 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 46 46 NE 12 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 45 45 NE 12 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 43 43 E 12 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 43 43 E 12 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 43 43 E 12 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 43 43 NE 12 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 42 42 NE 12 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 42 42 NE 12 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 41 41 NE 12 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 40 40 NE 12 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 39 39 NE 12 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 43 43 NE 9 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 48 49 NE 9 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 51 53 NE 9 6348 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 55 58 N 5 8173 7000 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Wed 59 63 N 5 11341 9405 2405 Blue 9
1 PM Wed 65 69 N 5 14658 12734 5734 Blue 15
2 PM Wed 65 69 N 6 14658 12734 5734 Blue 15
3 PM Wed 65 68 N 6 14231 12126 5126 Blue 14
4 PM Wed 62 63 N 6 11341 9405 2405 Blue 9
5 PM Wed 59 59 N 6 8550 7386 386 Blue 5
6 PM Wed 55 55 N 6 7009 7000 0 Blue 1
7 PM Wed 51 51 N 6 5931 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 48 48 N 6 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 47 47 N 6 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 46 46 N 6 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 43 43 NE 7 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 44 44 NE 7 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 44 44 NE 7 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 43 43 NE 7 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 42 42 NE 7 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 43 43 NE 7 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 42 42 NE 8 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 41 41 NE 8 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 40 40 NE 8 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 44 44 NE 8 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 49 50 NE 8 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 52 54 NE 8 6610 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 57 60 NE 6 9534 7769 769 Blue 6
12 Noon Thu 61 65 NE 6 12207 10822 3822 Blue 11
1 PM Thu 67 72 NE 6 15889 14537 7537 Blue 18
2 PM Thu 67 71 NE 6 15486 14114 7114 Blue 17
3 PM Thu 66 69 NE 6 14658 12734 5734 Blue 15
4 PM Thu 64 66 NE 6 13001 11265 4265 Blue 12
5 PM Thu 61 61 N 7 10434 8147 1147 Blue 7
6 PM Thu 56 56 N 7 7402 7000 0 Blue 2
7 PM Thu 52 52 N 7 6140 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 49 49 N 7 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 47 47 N 7 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 46 46 N 7 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 44 44 NE 10 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 44 44 NE 10 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 44 44 NE 10 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 44 44 NE 10 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 43 43 NE 10 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 43 43 NE 10 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 42 42 NE 12 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 41 41 NE 12 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 40 40 NE 12 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 45 45 NE 12 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 50 51 NE 12 5931 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 53 55 NE 12 7009 7000 0 Blue 1
11 AM Fri 59 62 NE 14 10893 8521 1521 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 64 68 NE 14 14231 12126 5126 Blue 14
1 PM Fri 70 75 NE 14 17056 15757 8757 Blue 21
2 PM Fri 70 74 NE 14 16673 15358 8358 Blue 20
3 PM Fri 69 72 NE 14 15889 14537 7537 Blue 18
4 PM Fri 66 68 NE 14 14231 12126 5126 Blue 14
5 PM Fri 63 63 NE 9 11341 9405 2405 Blue 9
6 PM Fri 58 58 NE 9 8173 7000 0 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 53 53 NE 9 6348 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 50 50 NE 9 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 48 48 NE 9 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 47 47 NE 9 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 44 44 NE 13 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 45 45 NE 13 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 45 45 NE 13 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 44 44 NE 13 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 43 43 NE 13 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 43 43 NE 13 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 42 42 NE 14 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 41 41 NE 14 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 40 40 NE 14 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 44 44 NE 14 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 50 50 NE 14 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 53 55 NE 14 7009 7000 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 57 60 E 16 9534 7769 769 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 62 65 E 16 12207 10822 3822 Blue 11
1 PM Sat 68 72 E 16 15889 14537 7537 Blue 18
2 PM Sat 68 71 E 16 15486 14114 7114 Blue 17
3 PM Sat 67 69 E 16 14658 12734 5734 Blue 15
4 PM Sat 64 65 E 16 12207 10822 3822 Blue 11
5 PM Sat 61 61 E 10 10434 8147 1147 Blue 7
6 PM Sat 57 57 E 10 7790 7000 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 52 52 E 10 6140 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 49 49 E 10 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 48 48 E 10 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 47 47 E 10 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 44 44 NE 10 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 44 44 NE 10 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 45 45 NE 10 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 44 44 NE 10 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 43 43 NE 10 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 43 43 NE 10 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 42 42 NE 9 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 41 41 NE 9 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 40 40 NE 9 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 44 44 NE 9 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 49 49 NE 9 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 52 53 NE 9 6348 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 56 58 E 7 8173 7000 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 60 63 E 7 11341 9405 2405 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 66 69 E 7 14658 12734 5734 Blue 15
2 PM Sun 66 68 E 7 14231 12126 5126 Blue 14
3 PM Sun 66 68 E 7 14231 12126 5126 Blue 14
4 PM Sun 63 64 E 7 11780 10369 3369 Blue 10
5 PM Sun 60 60 NW 2 9534 7769 769 Blue 6
6 PM Sun 56 56 NW 2 7402 7000 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 52 52 NW 2 6140 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 50 50 NW 2 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 49 49 NW 2 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 48 48 NW 2 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 45 45 N 6 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 46 46 N 6 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 46 46 N 6 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 45 45 N 6 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 44 44 N 6 5899 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 45 45 N 6 5899 7000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com