Detailed Predictions for: Pine Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 4000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

1 DEC 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Tue 42 42 N 20 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 42 42 N 20 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 41 41 N 20 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 41 41 N 20 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 50 N 20 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 56 57 N 20 6676 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 58 59 N 12 7427 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 61 63 N 12 8876 7776 776 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 64 66 N 12 9922 8845 1845 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 64 66 NE 9 9922 8845 1845 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 63 64 NE 9 9228 8136 1136 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 61 61 NE 9 8160 7042 42 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 57 57 NE 9 6676 7000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 51 51 NE 9 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 49 49 NE 9 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 49 49 E 9 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 50 50 E 9 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 49 49 E 9 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 48 48 NE 13 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 48 48 NE 13 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 46 46 NE 13 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 46 46 NE 14 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 45 45 NE 14 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 46 46 NE 14 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 46 46 NE 14 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 46 46 NE 14 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 45 45 NE 14 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 45 45 NE 14 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 51 51 NE 14 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 55 55 NE 14 5905 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 57 58 N 14 7054 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 59 60 N 14 7795 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 61 62 N 14 8520 7411 411 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 61 62 N 12 8520 7411 411 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 60 61 N 12 8160 7042 42 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 57 57 N 12 6676 7000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 53 53 N 12 5113 7000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 46 46 N 12 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 45 45 N 12 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 45 45 NE 12 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 45 45 NE 12 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 44 44 NE 12 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 43 43 NE 15 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 43 43 NE 15 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 42 42 NE 15 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 41 41 NE 14 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 40 40 NE 14 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 41 41 NE 14 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 41 41 NE 20 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 41 41 NE 20 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 40 40 NE 20 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 40 40 NE 18 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 46 46 NE 18 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 50 50 NE 18 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 51 52 NE 20 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 53 55 NE 20 5905 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 55 57 NE 20 6676 7000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 55 57 NE 20 6676 7000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 54 55 NE 20 5905 7000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 52 52 NE 20 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 48 48 NE 18 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 42 42 NE 18 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 41 41 NE 18 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 41 41 NE 17 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 41 41 NE 17 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 41 41 NE 17 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 40 40 NE 18 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 39 39 NE 18 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 38 38 NE 18 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 38 38 NE 21 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 37 37 NE 21 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 38 38 NE 21 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 38 38 NE 22 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 38 38 NE 22 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 37 37 NE 22 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 37 37 NE 22 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 44 44 NE 22 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 48 48 NE 22 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 50 51 NE 18 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 52 54 NE 18 5512 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 54 56 NE 18 6293 7000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 54 56 NE 15 6293 7000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 53 54 NE 15 5512 7000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 51 51 NE 15 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 48 48 NE 13 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 43 43 NE 13 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 41 41 NE 13 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 42 42 N 15 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 42 42 N 15 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 41 41 N 15 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 41 41 NE 16 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 40 40 NE 16 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 39 39 NE 16 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 39 39 NE 16 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 38 38 NE 16 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 38 38 NE 16 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 39 39 NE 15 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 38 38 NE 15 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 38 38 NE 15 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 38 38 NE 14 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 45 45 NE 14 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 50 51 NE 14 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 52 53 NE 14 5113 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 55 57 NE 14 6676 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 57 59 NE 14 7427 7000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 57 59 N 12 7427 7000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 56 57 N 12 6676 7000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 54 54 N 12 5512 7000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 50 50 N 10 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 45 45 N 10 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 44 44 N 10 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 44 44 N 13 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 44 44 N 13 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 44 44 N 13 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 43 43 NE 12 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 42 42 NE 12 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 41 41 NE 12 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 41 41 NE 12 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 40 40 NE 12 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 40 40 NE 12 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 41 41 NE 10 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 40 40 NE 10 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 40 40 NE 10 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 40 40 N 12 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 47 47 N 12 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 52 53 N 12 5113 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 54 55 N 9 5905 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 57 59 N 9 7427 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 59 61 N 9 8160 7042 42 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 59 61 W 10 8160 7042 42 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 58 59 W 10 7427 7000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 56 56 W 10 6293 7000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 52 52 W 9 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 46 46 W 9 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 45 45 W 9 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 45 45 NE 12 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 45 45 NE 12 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 45 45 NE 12 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 44 44 NE 12 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 43 43 NE 12 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 42 42 NE 12 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 42 42 NE 12 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 41 41 NE 12 5089 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 42 42 NE 12 5089 7000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com