Detailed Predictions for: Pine Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 4000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 46 46 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 46 46 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 49 49 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 55 56 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 59 61 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 62 65 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 65 68 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 69 73 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 73 77 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 73 76 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 74 77 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 72 74 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 69 70 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 63 63 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 60 60 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 53 53 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 51 51 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 49 49 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 49 49 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 50 50 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 49 49 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 46 46 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 43 43 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 43 43 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 43 43 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 43 43 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 46 46 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 52 53 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 56 58 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 59 63 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 62 65 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 66 70 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 70 74 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 70 74 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 71 74 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 69 71 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 67 68 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 62 62 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 58 58 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 53 53 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 51 51 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 49 49 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 49 49 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 50 50 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 49 49 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 47 47 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 44 44 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 44 44 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 44 44 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 44 44 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 47 47 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 51 52 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 55 57 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 57 60 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 60 64 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 64 69 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 67 72 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 67 72 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 68 72 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 66 68 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 64 65 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 59 59 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 56 56 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 51 51 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 48 48 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 47 47 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 47 47 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 48 48 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 47 47 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 45 45 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 42 42 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 42 42 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 42 42 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 42 42 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 44 44 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 49 49 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 52 53 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 54 57 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 57 60 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 60 64 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 63 67 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 63 67 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 64 67 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 62 64 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 60 60 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 55 55 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 52 52 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 47 47 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 45 45 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 44 44 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 44 44 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 44 44 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 44 44 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 41 41 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 39 39 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 39 39 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 39 39 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 39 39 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 41 41 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 44 44 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 47 48 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 49 51 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 50 52 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 53 56 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 55 58 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 56 59 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 56 58 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 55 56 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 52 52 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 48 48 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 46 46 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 41 41 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 39 39 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 38 38 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 38 38 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 39 39 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 38 38 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 36 36 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 34 34 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 34 34 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 34 34 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 34 34 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 36 36 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 40 40 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 44 46 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 46 49 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 48 54 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 51 58 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 54 61 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 54 60 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 55 60 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 54 57 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 53 55 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 50 50 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 48 48 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 45 45 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 44 44 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 43 43 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 43 43 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 43 43 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 43 43 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 41 41 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 40 40 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 40 40 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com