Detailed Predictions for: Pine Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 4000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

18 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Thu 40 40 NW 2 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 40 40 NW 2 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 38 38 NW 2 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 37 37 NW 2 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 40 40 NW 2 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 47 47 NW 2 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 54 55 SW 8 6080 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 59 60 SW 8 8264 7000 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Thu 62 63 SW 8 10510 8226 1226 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 62 63 SW 13 10510 8226 1226 Blue 7
2 PM Thu 61 62 SW 13 9751 7683 683 Blue 6
3 PM Thu 60 60 SW 13 8264 7000 0 Blue 4
4 PM Thu 59 59 SW 13 7712 7000 0 Blue 3
5 PM Thu 57 57 SW 13 6973 7000 0 Blue 1
6 PM Thu 55 55 SW 13 6080 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 53 53 SW 9 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 52 52 SW 9 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 51 51 SW 9 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 50 50 SW 6 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 49 49 SW 6 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 47 47 SW 6 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 45 45 W 9 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 42 42 W 9 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 40 40 W 9 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 38 38 W 3 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 36 36 W 3 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 34 34 W 3 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 43 43 SW 7 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 31 31 SW 7 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 40 40 SW 7 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 38 38 NW 8 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 36 37 NW 8 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 35 36 NW 8 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 33 34 N 16 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 32 32 N 16 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 30 30 N 16 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 28 28 NW 25 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 26 26 NW 25 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 24 24 NW 25 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 22 22 NW 25 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 20 20 NW 25 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 19 19 NW 25 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 18 18 N 31 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 18 18 N 31 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 17 17 N 31 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 17 17 N 31 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 16 16 N 31 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 16 16 N 31 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 15 15 N 31 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 15 15 N 31 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 14 14 N 31 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 14 14 N 31 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 13 13 N 31 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 13 13 N 31 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 14 15 N 26 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 19 21 N 26 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 25 27 N 26 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 30 32 N 26 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 32 33 N 26 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 31 31 N 26 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 27 27 N 26 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 23 23 N 26 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 20 20 N 26 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 18 18 N 26 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 18 18 N 26 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 19 19 N 26 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 20 20 N 23 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 22 22 N 23 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 24 24 N 23 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 25 25 N 23 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 25 25 N 23 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 25 25 N 23 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 25 25 N 10 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 25 25 N 10 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 25 25 N 10 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 27 27 N 10 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 32 32 N 10 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 37 37 N 10 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 41 42 NW 3 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 43 44 NW 3 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 42 43 NW 3 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 39 40 NW 3 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 33 34 NW 3 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 27 27 NW 3 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 24 24 NW 3 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 23 23 NW 3 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 24 24 NW 3 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 24 24 NW 3 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 26 26 NW 3 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 29 29 NW 3 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 31 31 N 9 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 32 32 N 9 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 33 33 N 9 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 34 34 N 9 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 34 34 N 9 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 34 34 N 9 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 34 34 N 9 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 35 35 N 9 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 35 35 N 9 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 35 35 N 9 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 36 36 N 9 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 37 37 N 9 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 38 38 NW 7 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 39 40 NW 7 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 40 41 NW 7 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 41 42 NW 7 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 43 43 NW 7 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 44 44 NW 7 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 45 45 NW 7 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 46 46 NW 7 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 47 47 NW 7 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 48 48 NW 7 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 48 48 NW 7 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 48 48 NW 7 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 48 48 N 7 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 48 48 N 7 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 45 45 N 7 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 34 34 N 7 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 30 30 N 7 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 31 31 N 7 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 32 32 N 7 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 35 35 N 7 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 39 39 N 7 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 43 43 N 7 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 47 47 N 7 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 51 51 N 7 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 53 54 NE 1 5228 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 54 56 NE 1 6655 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 53 55 NE 1 6080 7000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 50 52 NE 1 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 45 46 NE 1 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 40 40 NE 1 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 37 37 NE 1 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 34 34 NE 1 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 34 34 NE 1 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 34 34 NE 1 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 35 35 NE 1 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 37 37 NE 1 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 37 37 SW 3 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 37 37 SW 3 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 37 37 SW 3 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 36 36 SW 3 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 35 35 SW 3 5043 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 36 36 SW 3 5043 7000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com