Detailed Predictions for: Pine Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 4000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

24 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 54 54 SE 9 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 52 52 SE 9 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 56 56 SE 9 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 65 65 SE 9 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 69 71 SE 9 7928 7000 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sat 72 76 SE 9 8746 8140 1140 Blue 8
11 AM Sat 76 82 S 10 10714 9621 2621 Blue 14
12 Noon Sat 79 86 S 10 11919 11130 4130 Blue 18
1 PM Sat 80 87 S 10 12096 11533 4533 Blue 19
2 PM Sat 81 88 S 10 12273 11710 4710 Blue 20
3 PM Sat 81 87 S 10 12096 11533 4533 Blue 19
4 PM Sat 80 84 S 10 11564 10218 3218 Blue 16
5 PM Sat 78 80 S 10 9957 9015 2015 Blue 12
6 PM Sat 75 76 S 10 8746 8140 1140 Blue 8
7 PM Sat 73 73 S 10 8147 7812 812 Blue 5
8 PM Sat 67 67 S 10 5781 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 64 64 S 10 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 62 62 S 10 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 60 60 NW 3 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 58 58 NW 3 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 59 59 NW 3 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 57 57 W 6 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 56 56 W 6 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 55 55 W 6 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 54 54 W 7 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 54 54 W 7 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 58 58 W 7 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 67 67 W 6 5781 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 71 73 W 6 8147 7812 812 Blue 5
10 AM Sun 74 78 W 6 9350 8534 1534 Blue 10
11 AM Sun 78 84 W 9 11564 10218 3218 Blue 16
12 Noon Sun 81 88 W 9 12273 11710 4710 Blue 20
1 PM Sun 82 89 W 9 12432 11886 4886 Blue 21
2 PM Sun 83 90 SW 8 12575 12062 5062 Blue 22
3 PM Sun 83 89 SW 8 12432 11886 4886 Blue 21
4 PM Sun 82 86 SW 8 11919 11130 4130 Blue 18
5 PM Sun 80 82 SW 8 10714 9621 2621 Blue 14
6 PM Sun 77 77 SW 8 9043 8323 1323 Blue 9
7 PM Sun 76 76 SW 8 8746 8140 1140 Blue 8
8 PM Sun 70 70 N 10 7818 7000 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sun 66 66 N 10 5279 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 64 64 N 10 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 63 63 N 8 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 61 61 N 8 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 62 62 N 8 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 60 60 N 8 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 59 59 N 8 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 58 58 N 8 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 57 57 N 8 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 57 57 N 8 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 60 60 N 8 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 69 69 N 8 7668 7000 0 Blue 1
9 AM Mon 72 73 N 8 8147 7812 812 Blue 5
10 AM Mon 75 78 N 8 9350 8534 1534 Blue 10
11 AM Mon 78 81 SW 6 10257 9319 2319 Blue 13
12 Noon Mon 81 85 SW 6 11742 10641 3641 Blue 17
1 PM Mon 82 86 SW 6 11919 11130 4130 Blue 18
2 PM Mon 83 87 SW 6 12096 11533 4533 Blue 19
3 PM Mon 83 86 SW 6 11919 11130 4130 Blue 18
4 PM Mon 82 84 SW 6 11564 10218 3218 Blue 16
5 PM Mon 80 81 SW 6 10257 9319 2319 Blue 13
6 PM Mon 77 77 SW 6 9043 8323 1323 Blue 9
7 PM Mon 76 76 SW 6 8746 8140 1140 Blue 8
8 PM Mon 70 70 SW 6 7818 7000 0 Blue 2
9 PM Mon 67 67 SW 6 5781 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 65 65 SW 6 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 63 63 NE 6 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 62 62 NE 6 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 63 63 NE 6 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 61 61 NE 6 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 60 60 NE 6 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 59 59 NE 6 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 58 58 NE 6 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 58 58 NE 6 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 61 61 NE 6 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 69 69 NE 6 7668 7000 0 Blue 1
9 AM Tue 72 74 NE 6 8338 7921 921 Blue 6
10 AM Tue 75 78 NE 6 9350 8534 1534 Blue 10
11 AM Tue 78 84 SW 6 11564 10218 3218 Blue 16
12 Noon Tue 81 88 SW 6 12273 11710 4710 Blue 20
1 PM Tue 82 90 SW 6 12575 12062 5062 Blue 22
2 PM Tue 83 90 SW 6 12575 12062 5062 Blue 22
3 PM Tue 83 89 SW 6 12432 11886 4886 Blue 21
4 PM Tue 82 86 SW 6 11919 11130 4130 Blue 18
5 PM Tue 80 82 SW 6 10714 9621 2621 Blue 14
6 PM Tue 78 79 SW 6 9654 8731 1731 Blue 11
7 PM Tue 76 76 SW 6 8746 8140 1140 Blue 8
8 PM Tue 71 71 SW 6 7928 7000 0 Blue 3
9 PM Tue 67 67 SW 6 5781 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 66 66 SW 6 5279 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 64 64 NE 7 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 63 63 NE 7 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 64 64 NE 7 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 62 62 NE 7 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 61 61 NE 7 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 60 60 NE 7 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 59 59 NE 7 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 59 59 NE 7 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 62 62 NE 7 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 69 69 NE 7 7668 7000 0 Blue 1
9 AM Wed 72 74 NE 7 8338 7921 921 Blue 6
10 AM Wed 75 79 NE 7 9654 8731 1731 Blue 11
11 AM Wed 78 84 SW 13 11564 10218 3218 Blue 16
12 Noon Wed 80 87 SW 13 12096 11533 4533 Blue 19
1 PM Wed 81 89 SW 13 12432 11886 4886 Blue 21
2 PM Wed 82 89 SW 13 12432 11886 4886 Blue 21
3 PM Wed 82 88 SW 13 12273 11710 4710 Blue 20
4 PM Wed 81 85 SW 13 11742 10641 3641 Blue 17
5 PM Wed 80 82 SW 13 10714 9621 2621 Blue 14
6 PM Wed 78 79 SW 13 9654 8731 1731 Blue 11
7 PM Wed 76 76 SW 13 8746 8140 1140 Blue 8
8 PM Wed 72 72 SW 13 8037 7653 653 Blue 4
9 PM Wed 69 69 SW 13 7668 7000 0 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 68 68 SW 13 6271 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 66 66 S 12 5279 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 65 65 S 12 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 66 66 S 12 5279 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 64 64 S 12 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 64 64 S 12 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 63 63 S 12 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 62 62 S 12 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 62 62 S 12 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 64 64 S 12 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 71 71 S 12 7928 7000 0 Blue 3
9 AM Thu 73 75 S 12 8551 8030 1030 Blue 7
10 AM Thu 75 79 S 12 9654 8731 1731 Blue 11
11 AM Thu 78 84 W 10 11564 10218 3218 Blue 16
12 Noon Thu 79 86 W 10 11919 11130 4130 Blue 18
1 PM Thu 80 87 W 10 12096 11533 4533 Blue 19
2 PM Thu 81 88 W 10 12273 11710 4710 Blue 20
3 PM Thu 81 87 W 10 12096 11533 4533 Blue 19
4 PM Thu 80 84 W 10 11564 10218 3218 Blue 16
5 PM Thu 78 80 W 10 9957 9015 2015 Blue 12
6 PM Thu 76 77 W 10 9043 8323 1323 Blue 9
7 PM Thu 74 74 W 10 8338 7921 921 Blue 6
8 PM Thu 69 69 W 10 7668 7000 0 Blue 1
9 PM Thu 65 65 W 10 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 64 64 W 10 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 62 62 N 9 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 61 61 N 9 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 62 62 N 9 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 60 60 N 9 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 59 59 N 9 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 58 58 N 9 4895 7000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com