Detailed Predictions for: Pine Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.63616582095678, -119.3070454653368, 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 4000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

16 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 68 68 N 2 3 10544 9243 2243 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 67 67 N 2 3 9988 8880 1880 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 66 66 N 2 3 9630 8513 1513 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 66 66 N 2 3 9630 8513 1513 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 65 65 N 2 4 9267 8141 1141 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 65 65 N 2 4 9267 8141 1141 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 64 64 N 2 3 8900 7766 766 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 64 64 N 2 3 8900 7766 766 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 67 67 SSE 0 1 9988 8880 1880 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 60 61 SSW 4 8 7773 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 63 66 S 5 12 9630 8513 1513 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 67 72 S 7 13 13305 11202 4202 Blue 4
12 Noon Thu 68 74 SSW 8 13 14495 12556 5556 Blue 6
1 PM Thu 69 76 SSW 8 12 15598 13783 6783 Blue 8
2 PM Thu 73 79 SSW 8 9 17128 15452 8452 Blue 11
3 PM Thu 71 76 SSW 7 10 15598 13783 6783 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 69 72 SSW 7 11 13305 11202 4202 Blue 4
5 PM Thu 67 68 SSW 6 10 10544 9243 2243 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 65 65 S 4 6 9267 8141 1141 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 57 57 ENE 1 2 6201 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 53 53 NNE 3 6 4800 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 55 55 NNE 1 3 5382 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 59 59 NE 2 5 6998 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 65 65 NNE 1 2 9267 8141 1141 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 64 64 NE 2 3 8900 7766 766 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 64 64 N 2 3 8900 7766 766 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 64 64 NNE 2 4 8900 7766 766 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 64 64 NNE 2 4 8900 7766 766 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 63 63 NNE 2 3 8529 7385 385 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 63 63 NNE 2 4 8529 7385 385 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 63 63 NE 2 4 8529 7385 385 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 63 63 NE 3 5 8529 7385 385 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 69 69 ESE 2 2 11296 9602 2602 Blue 1
9 AM Fri 73 74 SSE 4 5 14495 12556 5556 Blue 6
10 AM Fri 75 78 S 6 6 16632 14915 7915 Blue 10
11 AM Fri 83 88 S 7 8 21670 21670 14670 White 20
12 Noon Fri 84 90 S 8 9 22065 22065 15065 White 22
1 PM Fri 84 91 S 8 9 22260 22260 15260 White 23
2 PM Fri 84 90 S 8 9 22065 22065 15065 White 22
3 PM Fri 82 87 SSW 7 8 21474 19699 12699 White 19
4 PM Fri 80 83 SSW 6 8 18988 17446 10446 Blue 15
5 PM Fri 81 82 SSW 5 6 18539 16967 9967 Blue 14
6 PM Fri 78 78 SSW 4 4 16632 14915 7915 Blue 10
7 PM Fri 70 70 NW 1 1 12002 9957 2957 Blue 2
8 PM Fri 66 66 N 3 5 9630 8513 1513 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 66 66 N 3 5 9630 8513 1513 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 65 65 NNE 3 5 9267 8141 1141 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 65 65 NE 3 5 9267 8141 1141 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 64 64 NNE 3 5 8900 7766 766 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 64 64 NNE 3 5 8900 7766 766 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 63 63 NNE 3 5 8529 7385 385 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 63 63 NNE 3 5 8529 7385 385 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 63 63 NNE 3 6 8529 7385 385 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 63 63 NNE 3 5 8529 7385 385 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 63 63 NNE 3 6 8529 7385 385 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 63 63 NNE 3 5 8529 7385 385 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 69 69 E 1 1 11296 9602 2602 Blue 1
9 AM Sat 73 74 SSE 3 4 14495 12556 5556 Blue 6
10 AM Sat 73 76 S 5 5 15598 13783 6783 Blue 8
11 AM Sat 76 81 S 6 7 18080 16477 9477 Blue 13
12 Noon Sat 77 83 S 7 8 18988 17446 10446 Blue 15
1 PM Sat 78 85 SSW 8 9 21078 18368 11368 White 17
2 PM Sat 77 83 SSW 8 9 18988 17446 10446 Blue 15
3 PM Sat 78 83 SSW 7 8 18988 17446 10446 Blue 15
4 PM Sat 81 84 SSW 6 8 20880 17912 10912 White 16
5 PM Sat 79 80 SSW 6 7 17610 15972 8972 Blue 12
6 PM Sat 77 77 SSW 4 4 16123 14359 7359 Blue 9
7 PM Sat 70 70 N 0 1 12002 9957 2957 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 65 65 N 4 6 9267 8141 1141 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 66 66 N 3 6 9630 8513 1513 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 66 66 N 3 6 9630 8513 1513 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 65 65 N 3 6 9267 8141 1141 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com