Detailed Predictions for: Pine Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 4000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

5 DEC 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Thu 28 28 SE 10 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 28 28 SE 10 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 35 35 SE 10 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 37 37 S 12 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 37 37 S 12 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 39 39 S 12 5946 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 42 42 S 9 6304 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 38 38 S 9 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 44 44 S 9 6543 7000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 44 44 SE 6 6543 7000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 43 43 SE 6 6424 7000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 42 42 SE 6 6304 7000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 41 41 SE 9 6185 7000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 39 39 SE 9 5946 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 38 38 SE 9 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 38 38 SE 14 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 37 37 SE 14 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 37 37 SE 14 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 36 36 SE 17 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 36 36 SE 17 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 35 35 SE 17 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 35 35 SE 20 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 37 37 SE 20 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 37 37 SE 20 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 38 38 SE 21 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 38 38 SE 21 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 38 38 SE 21 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 39 39 SE 21 5946 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 39 39 SE 21 5946 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 40 40 SE 21 6066 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 40 40 S 22 6066 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 39 40 S 22 6066 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 41 42 S 22 6304 7000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 41 42 S 20 6304 7000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 41 41 S 20 6185 7000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 41 41 S 20 6185 7000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 40 40 S 23 6066 7000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 40 40 S 23 6066 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 40 40 S 23 6066 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 40 40 S 23 6066 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 40 40 S 23 6066 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 39 39 S 23 5946 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 39 39 SE 23 5946 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 39 39 SE 23 5946 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 39 39 SE 23 5946 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 39 39 SE 23 5946 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 40 40 SE 23 6066 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 40 40 SE 23 6066 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 40 40 S 16 6066 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 40 40 S 16 6066 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 41 41 S 16 6185 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 41 41 S 16 6185 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 41 41 S 16 6185 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 41 41 S 16 6185 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 42 42 S 16 6304 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 41 41 S 16 6185 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 42 42 S 16 6304 7000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 42 42 S 16 6304 7000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 41 41 S 16 6185 7000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 41 41 S 16 6185 7000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 40 40 S 14 6066 7000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 39 39 S 14 5946 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 38 38 S 14 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 38 38 S 14 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 38 38 S 14 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 37 37 S 14 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 37 37 S 12 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 37 37 S 12 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 36 36 S 12 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 36 36 S 12 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 36 36 S 12 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 36 36 S 12 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 36 36 W 13 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 36 36 W 13 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 36 36 W 13 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 36 36 W 13 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 36 36 W 13 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 34 34 W 13 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 34 34 NW 15 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 35 35 NW 15 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 34 34 NW 15 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 34 34 NW 15 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 33 33 NW 15 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 33 33 NW 15 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 31 31 NW 15 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 30 30 NW 15 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 29 29 NW 15 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 29 29 NW 15 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 28 28 NW 15 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 28 28 NW 15 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 27 27 N 14 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 27 27 N 14 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 26 26 N 14 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 26 26 N 14 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 29 29 N 14 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 29 29 N 14 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 30 30 N 13 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 30 30 N 13 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 31 31 N 13 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 31 31 N 13 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 32 32 N 13 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 33 33 N 13 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 34 35 NE 8 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 32 33 NE 8 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 35 36 NE 8 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 35 36 NE 8 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 34 35 NE 8 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 34 34 NE 8 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 33 33 NE 7 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 32 32 NE 7 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 31 31 NE 7 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 31 31 NE 7 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 31 31 NE 7 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 30 30 NE 7 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 30 30 NE 8 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 30 30 NE 8 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 29 29 NE 8 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 29 29 NE 8 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 33 33 NE 8 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 32 32 NE 8 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 35 35 NE 7 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 35 35 NE 7 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 36 36 NE 7 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 36 36 NE 7 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 37 37 NE 7 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 38 38 NE 7 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 39 40 S 7 6066 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 37 39 S 7 5946 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 41 43 S 7 6424 7000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 41 42 S 7 6304 7000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 39 40 S 7 6066 7000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 39 39 S 7 5946 7000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 38 38 W 6 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 36 36 W 6 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 34 34 W 6 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 34 34 W 6 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 34 34 W 6 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 33 33 W 6 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 32 32 E 9 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 32 32 E 9 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 31 31 E 9 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 31 31 E 9 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 35 35 E 9 5902 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 34 34 E 9 5902 7000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com