Detailed Predictions for: Pine Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 4000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

14 DEC 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 37 37 SE 15 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 36 36 SE 15 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 37 37 SE 15 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 36 36 SE 15 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 39 39 SE 15 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 45 45 SE 15 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 50 50 S 20 5879 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 53 53 S 20 6675 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 54 54 S 20 6938 7000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 54 54 S 22 6938 7000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 52 52 S 22 6411 7000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 50 50 S 22 5879 7000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 48 48 S 12 5342 7000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 43 43 S 12 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 45 45 S 12 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 44 44 S 12 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 42 42 S 12 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 41 41 S 12 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 38 38 SE 6 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 37 37 SE 6 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 37 37 SE 6 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 36 36 SE 8 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 35 35 SE 8 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 38 38 SE 8 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 37 37 S 7 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 37 37 S 7 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 38 38 S 7 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 36 36 S 7 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 40 40 S 7 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 48 48 S 7 5342 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 53 54 SE 7 6938 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 57 59 SE 7 8762 7649 649 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 59 61 SE 7 10067 8374 1374 Blue 7
1 PM Sat 59 61 S 8 10067 8374 1374 Blue 7
2 PM Sat 57 58 S 8 8401 7279 279 Blue 4
3 PM Sat 55 55 S 8 7294 7000 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sat 52 52 SE 7 6411 7000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 47 47 SE 7 5071 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 48 48 SE 7 5342 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 47 47 SE 7 5071 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 45 45 SE 7 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 44 44 SE 7 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 40 40 SE 10 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 39 39 SE 10 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 39 39 SE 10 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 39 39 SE 10 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 37 37 SE 10 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 39 39 SE 10 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 39 39 SE 8 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 38 38 SE 8 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 39 39 SE 8 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 38 38 SE 8 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 41 41 SE 8 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 48 48 SE 8 5342 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 53 54 SE 13 6938 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 56 57 SE 13 8037 7000 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Sun 58 59 SE 13 8762 7649 649 Blue 5
1 PM Sun 58 59 SE 13 8762 7649 649 Blue 5
2 PM Sun 55 56 SE 13 7667 7000 0 Blue 2
3 PM Sun 54 54 SE 13 6938 7000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 51 51 S 12 6146 7000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 45 45 S 12 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 47 47 S 12 5071 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 46 46 S 12 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 43 43 S 12 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 42 42 S 12 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 38 38 S 12 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 37 37 S 12 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 37 37 S 12 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 37 37 S 12 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 35 35 S 12 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 36 36 S 12 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 36 36 S 12 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 36 36 S 12 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 36 36 S 12 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 35 35 S 12 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 37 37 S 12 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 40 40 S 12 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 43 43 NW 8 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 44 44 NW 8 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 45 46 NW 8 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 45 45 NW 8 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 44 44 NW 8 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 43 43 NW 8 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 42 42 N 10 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 39 39 N 10 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 40 40 N 10 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 39 39 N 10 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 38 38 N 10 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 37 37 N 10 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 36 36 N 10 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 35 35 N 10 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 35 35 N 10 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 35 35 N 10 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 34 34 N 10 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 36 36 N 10 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 36 36 N 10 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 35 35 N 10 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 36 36 N 10 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 35 35 N 10 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 38 38 N 10 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 45 45 N 10 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 49 50 N 8 5879 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 52 54 N 8 6938 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 54 56 N 8 7667 7000 0 Blue 2
1 PM Tue 54 56 N 8 7667 7000 0 Blue 2
2 PM Tue 52 53 N 8 6675 7000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 50 50 N 8 5879 7000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 48 48 N 9 5342 7000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 43 43 N 9 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 45 45 N 9 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 44 44 N 9 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 42 42 N 9 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 41 41 N 9 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 38 38 NE 7 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 37 37 NE 7 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 37 37 NE 7 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 36 36 NE 7 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 35 35 NE 7 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 37 37 NE 7 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 37 37 E 7 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 36 36 E 7 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 37 37 E 7 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 36 36 E 7 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 39 39 E 7 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 46 47 E 7 5071 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 50 51 E 8 6146 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 53 55 E 8 7294 7000 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 55 57 E 8 8037 7000 0 Blue 3
1 PM Wed 55 57 E 8 8037 7000 0 Blue 3
2 PM Wed 53 54 E 8 6938 7000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 51 51 E 8 6146 7000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 49 49 NE 6 5611 7000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 44 44 NE 6 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 46 46 NE 6 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 45 45 NE 6 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 43 43 NE 6 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 42 42 NE 6 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 39 39 SE 7 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 38 38 SE 7 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 38 38 SE 7 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 37 37 SE 7 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 36 36 SE 7 5000 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 38 38 SE 7 5000 7000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com