Detailed Predictions for: Pine Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 4000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

19 JUN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 47 47 N 20 5978 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 46 46 N 20 5978 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 52 52 N 20 5978 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 59 60 NE 16 7242 7000 0 Blue 1
9 AM Tue 65 68 NE 16 7843 7625 625 Blue 9
10 AM Tue 68 73 NE 16 8521 8005 1005 Blue 14
11 AM Tue 72 79 E 8 10035 9086 2086 Blue 20
12 Noon Tue 75 83 E 8 11917 10363 3363 Blue 24
1 PM Tue 77 85 E 8 12437 11417 4417 Blue 26
2 PM Tue 77 85 N 9 12437 11417 4417 Blue 26
3 PM Tue 78 84 N 9 12191 10914 3914 Blue 25
4 PM Tue 78 83 N 9 11917 10363 3363 Blue 24
5 PM Tue 76 79 N 9 10035 9086 2086 Blue 20
6 PM Tue 73 74 N 9 8716 8156 1156 Blue 15
7 PM Tue 70 70 N 9 8014 7768 768 Blue 11
8 PM Tue 65 65 N 16 7629 7413 413 Blue 6
9 PM Tue 60 60 N 16 7242 7000 0 Blue 1
10 PM Tue 59 59 N 16 6832 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 57 57 N 16 6467 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 56 56 N 16 6295 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 56 56 N 16 6295 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 53 53 N 18 5978 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 53 53 N 18 5978 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 53 53 N 18 5978 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 53 53 N 15 5978 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 52 52 N 15 5978 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 58 58 N 15 6639 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 65 66 NE 12 7700 7483 483 Blue 7
9 AM Wed 70 73 NE 12 8521 8005 1005 Blue 14
10 AM Wed 73 78 NE 12 9686 8893 1893 Blue 19
11 AM Wed 77 84 SE 12 12191 10914 3914 Blue 25
12 Noon Wed 80 88 SE 12 13168 12387 5387 Blue 29
1 PM Wed 82 90 SE 12 13650 12872 5872 Blue 31
2 PM Wed 82 90 NW 10 13650 12872 5872 Blue 31
3 PM Wed 83 89 NW 10 13410 12630 5630 Blue 30
4 PM Wed 83 88 NW 10 13168 12387 5387 Blue 29
5 PM Wed 81 84 NW 9 12191 10914 3914 Blue 25
6 PM Wed 77 78 NW 9 9686 8893 1893 Blue 19
7 PM Wed 74 74 NW 9 8716 8156 1156 Blue 15
8 PM Wed 68 68 NW 10 7843 7625 625 Blue 9
9 PM Wed 63 63 NW 10 7487 7227 227 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 61 61 NW 10 7345 7000 0 Blue 2
11 PM Wed 59 59 N 21 6832 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 58 58 N 21 6639 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 57 57 N 21 6467 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 55 N 18 6123 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 54 54 N 18 5978 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 54 54 N 18 5978 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 54 54 N 12 5978 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 53 53 N 12 5978 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 59 59 N 12 6832 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 65 66 N 10 7700 7483 483 Blue 7
9 AM Thu 71 74 N 10 8716 8156 1156 Blue 15
10 AM Thu 74 79 N 10 10035 9086 2086 Blue 20
11 AM Thu 77 84 NE 6 12191 10914 3914 Blue 25
12 Noon Thu 80 88 NE 6 13168 12387 5387 Blue 29
1 PM Thu 82 91 NE 6 14585 13113 6113 Blue 32
2 PM Thu 82 90 N 14 13650 12872 5872 Blue 31
3 PM Thu 83 90 N 14 13650 12872 5872 Blue 31
4 PM Thu 83 88 N 14 13168 12387 5387 Blue 29
5 PM Thu 81 84 N 14 12191 10914 3914 Blue 25
6 PM Thu 78 79 N 14 10035 9086 2086 Blue 20
7 PM Thu 74 74 N 14 8716 8156 1156 Blue 15
8 PM Thu 69 69 N 14 7914 7696 696 Blue 10
9 PM Thu 64 64 N 14 7558 7342 342 Blue 5
10 PM Thu 62 62 N 14 7416 7000 0 Blue 3
11 PM Thu 61 61 N 14 7345 7000 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Fri 60 60 N 14 7242 7000 0 Blue 1
1 AM Fri 59 59 N 14 6832 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 56 56 N 14 6295 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 56 56 N 14 6295 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 56 56 N 14 6295 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 56 56 N 12 6295 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 55 55 N 12 6123 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 60 60 N 12 7242 7000 0 Blue 1
8 AM Fri 67 68 N 12 7843 7625 625 Blue 9
9 AM Fri 72 75 N 12 8910 8312 1312 Blue 16
10 AM Fri 74 79 N 12 10035 9086 2086 Blue 20
11 AM Fri 77 84 NW 14 12191 10914 3914 Blue 25
12 Noon Fri 80 88 NW 14 13168 12387 5387 Blue 29
1 PM Fri 82 91 NW 14 14585 13113 6113 Blue 32
2 PM Fri 82 90 NW 14 13650 12872 5872 Blue 31
3 PM Fri 83 90 NW 14 13650 12872 5872 Blue 31
4 PM Fri 83 88 NW 14 13168 12387 5387 Blue 29
5 PM Fri 81 84 NW 14 12191 10914 3914 Blue 25
6 PM Fri 77 78 NW 14 9686 8893 1893 Blue 19
7 PM Fri 73 73 NW 14 8521 8005 1005 Blue 14
8 PM Fri 67 67 NW 14 7771 7554 554 Blue 8
9 PM Fri 61 61 NW 14 7345 7000 0 Blue 2
10 PM Fri 59 59 NW 14 6832 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 58 58 N 7 6639 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 56 56 N 7 6295 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 56 56 N 7 6295 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 53 53 N 7 5978 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 52 52 N 7 5978 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 52 52 N 7 5978 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 52 52 N 6 5978 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 51 51 N 6 5978 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 56 56 N 6 6295 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 63 64 N 6 7558 7342 342 Blue 5
9 AM Sat 68 71 N 6 8166 7839 839 Blue 12
10 AM Sat 71 76 N 6 9104 8506 1506 Blue 17
11 AM Sat 74 81 NW 15 10999 9646 2646 Blue 22
12 Noon Sat 77 85 NW 15 12437 11417 4417 Blue 26
1 PM Sat 79 87 NW 15 12925 12143 5143 Blue 28
2 PM Sat 79 87 NW 15 12925 12143 5143 Blue 28
3 PM Sat 80 86 NW 15 12682 11839 4839 Blue 27
4 PM Sat 80 85 NW 15 12437 11417 4417 Blue 26
5 PM Sat 78 81 NW 14 10999 9646 2646 Blue 22
6 PM Sat 75 76 NW 14 9104 8506 1506 Blue 17
7 PM Sat 71 71 NW 14 8166 7839 839 Blue 12
8 PM Sat 65 65 NW 14 7629 7413 413 Blue 6
9 PM Sat 60 60 NW 14 7242 7000 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sat 58 58 NW 14 6639 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 57 57 N 3 6467 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 56 56 N 3 6295 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 55 55 N 3 6123 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 52 52 N 3 5978 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 52 52 N 3 5978 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 52 52 N 3 5978 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 52 52 N 5 5978 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 51 51 N 5 5978 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 56 56 N 5 6295 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 63 64 N 5 7558 7342 342 Blue 5
9 AM Sun 68 71 N 5 8166 7839 839 Blue 12
10 AM Sun 70 75 N 5 8910 8312 1312 Blue 16
11 AM Sun 73 80 SE 6 10440 9297 2297 Blue 21
12 Noon Sun 76 84 SE 6 12191 10914 3914 Blue 25
1 PM Sun 78 86 SE 6 12682 11839 4839 Blue 27
2 PM Sun 78 86 SE 6 12682 11839 4839 Blue 27
3 PM Sun 79 85 SE 6 12437 11417 4417 Blue 26
4 PM Sun 79 84 SE 6 12191 10914 3914 Blue 25
5 PM Sun 77 80 SE 7 10440 9297 2297 Blue 21
6 PM Sun 74 75 SE 7 8910 8312 1312 Blue 16
7 PM Sun 70 70 SE 7 8014 7768 768 Blue 11
8 PM Sun 65 65 SE 7 7629 7413 413 Blue 6
9 PM Sun 60 60 SE 7 7242 7000 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 58 58 SE 7 6639 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 57 57 NE 3 6467 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 56 56 NE 3 6295 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 55 55 NE 3 6123 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 52 52 NE 3 5978 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 52 52 NE 3 5978 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 52 52 NE 3 5978 7000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com