Detailed Predictions for: Pine Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 4000
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

16 FEB 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sat 27 27 N 23 6367 7000 0 White 1
5 AM Sat 27 27 N 23 6367 7000 0 White 1
6 AM Sat 27 27 N 23 6367 7000 0 White 1
7 AM Sat 27 27 N 23 6367 7000 0 White 1
8 AM Sat 27 27 N 23 6367 7000 0 White 1
9 AM Sat 27 27 N 23 6367 7000 0 White 1
10 AM Sat 27 28 NW 32 6590 7000 0 White 2
11 AM Sat 28 29 NW 32 6813 7000 0 White 3
12 Noon Sat 29 30 NW 32 7036 7036 36 White 4
1 PM Sat 29 30 NW 32 7036 7036 36 White 4
2 PM Sat 28 29 NW 32 6813 7000 0 White 3
3 PM Sat 28 28 NW 32 6590 7000 0 White 2
4 PM Sat 25 25 NW 32 5597 7000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 23 23 NW 32 4910 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 23 23 NW 32 4910 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 22 22 NW 32 4888 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 22 22 NW 32 4888 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 22 22 NW 32 4888 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 22 22 N 28 4888 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 22 22 N 28 4888 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 22 22 N 28 4888 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 22 22 NW 21 4888 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 19 19 NW 21 4888 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 20 20 NW 21 4888 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 20 20 NW 16 4888 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 21 21 NW 16 4888 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 21 21 NW 16 4888 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 21 21 NW 16 4888 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 22 22 NW 16 4888 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 22 22 NW 16 4888 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 22 22 NW 23 4888 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 23 23 NW 23 4910 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 25 25 NW 23 5597 7000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 26 26 NW 23 5935 7000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 24 24 NW 23 5255 7000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 24 24 NW 23 5255 7000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 20 20 N 25 4888 7000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 17 17 N 25 4888 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 18 18 N 25 4888 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 16 16 N 25 4888 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 16 16 N 25 4888 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 16 16 N 25 4888 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 16 16 N 25 4888 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 16 16 N 25 4888 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 16 16 N 25 4888 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 17 17 N 25 4888 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 12 12 N 25 4888 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 14 14 N 25 4888 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 14 14 N 25 4888 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 14 14 N 25 4888 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 14 14 N 25 4888 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 14 14 N 25 4888 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 16 16 N 25 4888 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 17 17 N 25 4888 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 17 19 NW 15 4888 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 18 20 NW 15 4888 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 21 23 NW 15 4910 7000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 22 24 NW 15 5255 7000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 21 23 NW 15 4910 7000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 21 22 NW 15 4888 7000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 19 19 N 14 4888 7000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 18 18 N 14 4888 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 18 18 N 14 4888 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 17 17 N 14 4888 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 17 17 N 14 4888 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 17 17 N 14 4888 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 17 17 N 14 4888 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 17 17 N 14 4888 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 17 17 N 14 4888 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 17 17 N 14 4888 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 15 15 N 14 4888 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 18 18 N 14 4888 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 19 19 NE 16 4888 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 19 19 NE 16 4888 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 19 19 NE 16 4888 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 19 19 NE 16 4888 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 22 22 NE 16 4888 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 24 25 NE 16 5597 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 25 27 N 13 6367 7000 0 White 1
11 AM Tue 27 30 N 13 7036 7036 36 White 4
12 Noon Tue 34 37 N 13 8565 8565 1565 White 11
1 PM Tue 35 38 N 13 8783 8783 1783 White 12
2 PM Tue 34 36 N 13 8347 8347 1347 White 10
3 PM Tue 34 35 N 13 8130 8130 1130 White 9
4 PM Tue 31 31 N 10 7256 7256 256 White 5
5 PM Tue 29 29 N 10 6813 7000 0 White 3
6 PM Tue 29 29 N 10 6813 7000 0 White 3
7 PM Tue 28 28 N 10 6590 7000 0 White 2
8 PM Tue 28 28 N 10 6590 7000 0 White 2
9 PM Tue 28 28 N 10 6590 7000 0 White 2
10 PM Tue 28 28 NW 9 6590 7000 0 White 2
11 PM Tue 28 28 NW 9 6590 7000 0 White 2
12 Midnight Wed 28 28 NW 9 6590 7000 0 White 2
1 AM Wed 28 28 NW 9 6590 7000 0 White 2
2 AM Wed 25 25 NW 9 5597 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 26 26 NW 9 5935 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 26 26 NW 9 5935 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 26 26 NW 9 5935 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 26 26 NW 9 5935 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 26 26 NW 9 5935 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 27 27 NW 9 6367 7000 0 White 1
9 AM Wed 27 27 NW 9 6367 7000 0 White 1
10 AM Wed 27 28 W 14 6590 7000 0 White 2
11 AM Wed 28 30 W 14 7036 7036 36 White 4
12 Noon Wed 30 32 W 14 7475 7475 475 White 6
1 PM Wed 30 32 W 14 7475 7475 475 White 6
2 PM Wed 29 30 W 14 7036 7036 36 White 4
3 PM Wed 29 30 W 14 7036 7036 36 White 4
4 PM Wed 28 28 W 16 6590 7000 0 White 2
5 PM Wed 26 26 W 16 5935 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 27 27 W 16 6367 7000 0 White 1
7 PM Wed 26 26 W 16 5935 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 26 26 W 16 5935 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 26 26 W 16 5935 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 26 26 W 12 5935 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 26 26 W 12 5935 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 26 26 W 12 5935 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 26 26 W 12 5935 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 24 24 W 12 5255 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 24 24 W 12 5255 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 24 24 NW 18 5255 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 24 24 NW 18 5255 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 24 24 NW 18 5255 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 24 24 NW 18 5255 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 25 25 NW 18 5597 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 25 25 NW 18 5597 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 25 26 NW 17 5935 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 25 26 NW 17 5935 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 26 27 NW 17 6367 7000 0 White 1
1 PM Thu 26 27 NW 17 6367 7000 0 White 1
2 PM Thu 25 26 NW 17 5935 7000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 25 25 NW 17 5597 7000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 23 23 NW 18 4910 7000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 21 21 NW 18 4888 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 21 21 NW 18 4888 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 20 20 NW 18 4888 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 20 20 NW 18 4888 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 20 20 NW 18 4888 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 20 20 N 20 4888 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 20 20 N 20 4888 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 20 20 N 20 4888 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 21 21 N 20 4888 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 18 18 N 20 4888 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 19 19 N 20 4888 7000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com