Detailed Predictions for: Saddle Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 2770
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

24 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 62 62 E 5 1899 2770 0 Blue 2
6 AM Sat 59 59 E 5 1542 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 59 59 E 5 1542 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 63 63 E 5 1946 2770 0 Blue 3
9 AM Sat 68 70 E 5 2274 2770 0 Blue 10
10 AM Sat 73 77 E 5 2656 2770 0 Blue 17
11 AM Sat 78 83 SE 6 3306 2858 88 Blue 23
12 Noon Sat 81 88 SE 6 4481 3533 763 Blue 28
1 PM Sat 83 90 SE 6 4882 4263 1493 Blue 30
2 PM Sat 84 91 S 10 5339 4463 1693 Blue 31
3 PM Sat 84 89 S 10 4682 3879 1109 Blue 29
4 PM Sat 84 88 S 10 4481 3533 763 Blue 28
5 PM Sat 83 85 S 10 3540 3172 402 Blue 25
6 PM Sat 82 82 S 10 3181 2790 20 Blue 22
7 PM Sat 79 79 S 10 2793 2770 0 Blue 19
8 PM Sat 75 75 SW 12 2520 2770 0 Blue 15
9 PM Sat 71 71 SW 12 2321 2770 0 Blue 11
10 PM Sat 68 68 SW 12 2180 2770 0 Blue 8
11 PM Sat 66 66 E 2 2087 2770 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Sun 65 65 E 2 2040 2770 0 Blue 5
1 AM Sun 64 64 E 2 1993 2770 0 Blue 4
2 AM Sun 63 63 SE 2 1946 2770 0 Blue 3
3 AM Sun 64 64 SE 2 1993 2770 0 Blue 4
4 AM Sun 63 63 SE 2 1946 2770 0 Blue 3
5 AM Sun 63 63 SE 2 1946 2770 0 Blue 3
6 AM Sun 61 61 SE 2 1820 2770 0 Blue 1
7 AM Sun 61 61 SE 2 1820 2770 0 Blue 1
8 AM Sun 65 65 E 2 2040 2770 0 Blue 5
9 AM Sun 70 72 E 2 2368 2770 0 Blue 12
10 AM Sun 76 80 E 2 2861 2770 0 Blue 20
11 AM Sun 81 86 W 7 3915 3299 529 Blue 26
12 Noon Sun 85 92 W 7 5802 4663 1893 Blue 32
1 PM Sun 87 94 W 7 7585 5283 2513 Blue 34
2 PM Sun 88 95 W 10 7794 5742 2972 Blue 35
3 PM Sun 88 94 W 10 7585 5283 2513 Blue 34
4 PM Sun 88 92 W 10 5802 4663 1893 Blue 32
5 PM Sun 87 89 W 10 4682 3879 1109 Blue 29
6 PM Sun 86 86 W 10 3915 3299 529 Blue 26
7 PM Sun 83 83 W 10 3306 2858 88 Blue 23
8 PM Sun 78 78 W 8 2725 2770 0 Blue 18
9 PM Sun 74 74 W 8 2462 2770 0 Blue 14
10 PM Sun 71 71 W 8 2321 2770 0 Blue 11
11 PM Sun 68 68 S 2 2180 2770 0 Blue 8
12 Midnight Mon 67 67 S 2 2133 2770 0 Blue 7
1 AM Mon 67 67 S 2 2133 2770 0 Blue 7
2 AM Mon 65 65 S 2 2040 2770 0 Blue 5
3 AM Mon 66 66 S 2 2087 2770 0 Blue 6
4 AM Mon 65 65 S 2 2040 2770 0 Blue 5
5 AM Mon 65 65 S 2 2040 2770 0 Blue 5
6 AM Mon 63 63 S 2 1946 2770 0 Blue 3
7 AM Mon 63 63 S 2 1946 2770 0 Blue 3
8 AM Mon 67 67 S 2 2133 2770 0 Blue 7
9 AM Mon 71 72 S 2 2368 2770 0 Blue 12
10 AM Mon 76 78 S 2 2725 2770 0 Blue 18
11 AM Mon 81 84 SW 6 3423 2992 222 Blue 24
12 Noon Mon 84 88 SW 6 4481 3533 763 Blue 28
1 PM Mon 86 91 SW 6 5339 4463 1693 Blue 31
2 PM Mon 87 91 SW 6 5339 4463 1693 Blue 31
3 PM Mon 87 91 SW 6 5339 4463 1693 Blue 31
4 PM Mon 87 89 SW 6 4682 3879 1109 Blue 29
5 PM Mon 86 87 SW 6 4280 3416 646 Blue 27
6 PM Mon 85 85 SW 6 3540 3172 402 Blue 25
7 PM Mon 81 81 SW 6 3000 2770 0 Blue 21
8 PM Mon 77 77 SW 6 2656 2770 0 Blue 17
9 PM Mon 73 73 SW 6 2415 2770 0 Blue 13
10 PM Mon 69 69 SW 6 2227 2770 0 Blue 9
11 PM Mon 67 67 E 2 2133 2770 0 Blue 7
12 Midnight Tue 66 66 E 2 2087 2770 0 Blue 6
1 AM Tue 65 65 E 2 2040 2770 0 Blue 5
2 AM Tue 63 63 E 2 1946 2770 0 Blue 3
3 AM Tue 65 65 E 2 2040 2770 0 Blue 5
4 AM Tue 63 63 E 2 1946 2770 0 Blue 3
5 AM Tue 63 63 E 2 1946 2770 0 Blue 3
6 AM Tue 61 61 E 2 1820 2770 0 Blue 1
7 AM Tue 61 61 E 2 1820 2770 0 Blue 1
8 AM Tue 65 65 E 2 2040 2770 0 Blue 5
9 AM Tue 70 70 E 2 2274 2770 0 Blue 10
10 AM Tue 75 76 E 2 2588 2770 0 Blue 16
11 AM Tue 80 86 W 8 3915 3299 529 Blue 26
12 Noon Tue 83 90 W 8 4882 4263 1493 Blue 30
1 PM Tue 85 93 W 8 6256 4862 2092 Blue 33
2 PM Tue 86 93 W 8 6256 4862 2092 Blue 33
3 PM Tue 86 92 W 8 5802 4663 1893 Blue 32
4 PM Tue 86 90 W 8 4882 4263 1493 Blue 30
5 PM Tue 85 87 W 8 4280 3416 646 Blue 27
6 PM Tue 84 85 W 8 3540 3172 402 Blue 25
7 PM Tue 81 81 W 8 3000 2770 0 Blue 21
8 PM Tue 76 76 W 8 2588 2770 0 Blue 16
9 PM Tue 72 72 W 8 2368 2770 0 Blue 12
10 PM Tue 69 69 W 8 2227 2770 0 Blue 9
11 PM Tue 66 66 SE 6 2087 2770 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Wed 65 65 SE 6 2040 2770 0 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 65 65 SE 6 2040 2770 0 Blue 5
2 AM Wed 63 63 SE 6 1946 2770 0 Blue 3
3 AM Wed 64 64 SE 6 1993 2770 0 Blue 4
4 AM Wed 63 63 SE 6 1946 2770 0 Blue 3
5 AM Wed 63 63 SE 6 1946 2770 0 Blue 3
6 AM Wed 61 61 SE 6 1820 2770 0 Blue 1
7 AM Wed 61 61 SE 6 1820 2770 0 Blue 1
8 AM Wed 65 65 SE 6 2040 2770 0 Blue 5
9 AM Wed 69 71 SE 6 2321 2770 0 Blue 11
10 AM Wed 74 77 SE 6 2656 2770 0 Blue 17
11 AM Wed 79 85 SW 10 3540 3172 402 Blue 25
12 Noon Wed 82 89 SW 10 4682 3879 1109 Blue 29
1 PM Wed 84 92 SW 10 5802 4663 1893 Blue 32
2 PM Wed 85 92 SW 10 5802 4663 1893 Blue 32
3 PM Wed 85 91 SW 10 5339 4463 1693 Blue 31
4 PM Wed 85 89 SW 10 4682 3879 1109 Blue 29
5 PM Wed 84 86 SW 10 3915 3299 529 Blue 26
6 PM Wed 83 84 SW 10 3423 2992 222 Blue 24
7 PM Wed 80 80 SW 10 2861 2770 0 Blue 20
8 PM Wed 75 75 SW 10 2520 2770 0 Blue 15
9 PM Wed 71 71 SW 10 2321 2770 0 Blue 11
10 PM Wed 68 68 SW 10 2180 2770 0 Blue 8
11 PM Wed 65 65 SE 6 2040 2770 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Thu 64 64 SE 6 1993 2770 0 Blue 4
1 AM Thu 64 64 SE 6 1993 2770 0 Blue 4
2 AM Thu 62 62 SE 6 1899 2770 0 Blue 2
3 AM Thu 63 63 SE 6 1946 2770 0 Blue 3
4 AM Thu 62 62 SE 6 1899 2770 0 Blue 2
5 AM Thu 62 62 SE 6 1899 2770 0 Blue 2
6 AM Thu 60 60 SE 6 1734 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 60 60 SE 6 1734 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 64 64 SE 6 1993 2770 0 Blue 4
9 AM Thu 69 71 SE 6 2321 2770 0 Blue 11
10 AM Thu 74 77 SE 6 2656 2770 0 Blue 17
11 AM Thu 80 86 W 10 3915 3299 529 Blue 26
12 Noon Thu 83 90 W 10 4882 4263 1493 Blue 30
1 PM Thu 85 93 W 10 6256 4862 2092 Blue 33
2 PM Thu 86 93 W 10 6256 4862 2092 Blue 33
3 PM Thu 86 92 W 10 5802 4663 1893 Blue 32
4 PM Thu 86 90 W 10 4882 4263 1493 Blue 30
5 PM Thu 85 87 W 10 4280 3416 646 Blue 27
6 PM Thu 84 84 W 10 3423 2992 222 Blue 24
7 PM Thu 81 81 W 10 3000 2770 0 Blue 21
8 PM Thu 77 77 W 10 2656 2770 0 Blue 17
9 PM Thu 73 73 W 10 2415 2770 0 Blue 13
10 PM Thu 70 70 W 10 2274 2770 0 Blue 10
11 PM Thu 67 67 S 3 2133 2770 0 Blue 7
12 Midnight Fri 66 66 S 3 2087 2770 0 Blue 6
1 AM Fri 66 66 S 3 2087 2770 0 Blue 6
2 AM Fri 64 64 S 3 1993 2770 0 Blue 4
3 AM Fri 65 65 S 3 2040 2770 0 Blue 5
4 AM Fri 64 64 S 3 1993 2770 0 Blue 4

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com