Detailed Predictions for: Saddle Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 2770
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

19 AUG 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 72 72 E 3 1705 2770 0 Blue 9
6 AM Sun 70 70 E 3 1681 2770 0 Blue 7
7 AM Sun 70 70 E 3 1681 2770 0 Blue 7
8 AM Sun 74 74 NW 2 1735 2770 0 Blue 11
9 AM Sun 77 79 NW 2 1826 2770 0 Blue 16
10 AM Sun 80 84 NW 2 1943 2770 0 Blue 21
11 AM Sun 83 88 SW 6 2287 2770 0 Blue 25
12 Noon Sun 84 91 SW 6 2769 2770 0 Blue 28
1 PM Sun 85 92 SW 6 2974 2770 0 Blue 29
2 PM Sun 86 93 SW 5 3557 2770 0 Blue 30
3 PM Sun 85 91 SW 5 2769 2770 0 Blue 28
4 PM Sun 85 89 SW 5 2425 2770 0 Blue 26
5 PM Sun 85 87 S 5 2141 2770 0 Blue 24
6 PM Sun 83 84 S 5 1943 2770 0 Blue 21
7 PM Sun 82 82 S 5 1897 2770 0 Blue 19
8 PM Sun 79 79 S 3 1826 2770 0 Blue 16
9 PM Sun 77 77 S 3 1780 2770 0 Blue 14
10 PM Sun 76 76 S 3 1765 2770 0 Blue 13
11 PM Sun 75 75 SE 5 1750 2770 0 Blue 12
12 Midnight Mon 74 74 SE 5 1735 2770 0 Blue 11
1 AM Mon 73 73 SE 5 1720 2770 0 Blue 10
2 AM Mon 73 73 SE 5 1720 2770 0 Blue 10
3 AM Mon 73 73 SE 5 1720 2770 0 Blue 10
4 AM Mon 72 72 SE 5 1705 2770 0 Blue 9
5 AM Mon 72 72 E 2 1705 2770 0 Blue 9
6 AM Mon 70 70 E 2 1681 2770 0 Blue 7
7 AM Mon 70 70 E 2 1681 2770 0 Blue 7
8 AM Mon 73 73 SE 3 1720 2770 0 Blue 10
9 AM Mon 76 78 SE 3 1803 2770 0 Blue 15
10 AM Mon 78 82 SE 3 1897 2770 0 Blue 19
11 AM Mon 80 85 S 7 1967 2770 0 Blue 22
12 Noon Mon 82 89 S 7 2425 2770 0 Blue 26
1 PM Mon 82 89 S 7 2425 2770 0 Blue 26
2 PM Mon 83 90 SW 6 2563 2770 0 Blue 27
3 PM Mon 82 88 SW 6 2287 2770 0 Blue 25
4 PM Mon 82 86 SW 6 1990 2770 0 Blue 23
5 PM Mon 82 84 S 6 1943 2770 0 Blue 21
6 PM Mon 81 82 S 6 1897 2770 0 Blue 19
7 PM Mon 79 79 S 6 1826 2770 0 Blue 16
8 PM Mon 77 77 S 6 1780 2770 0 Blue 14
9 PM Mon 75 75 S 6 1750 2770 0 Blue 12
10 PM Mon 73 73 S 6 1720 2770 0 Blue 10
11 PM Mon 72 72 SE 5 1705 2770 0 Blue 9
12 Midnight Tue 72 72 SE 5 1705 2770 0 Blue 9
1 AM Tue 71 71 SE 5 1691 2770 0 Blue 8
2 AM Tue 71 71 SE 5 1691 2770 0 Blue 8
3 AM Tue 70 70 SE 5 1681 2770 0 Blue 7
4 AM Tue 70 70 SE 5 1681 2770 0 Blue 7
5 AM Tue 70 70 E 2 1681 2770 0 Blue 7
6 AM Tue 68 68 E 2 1659 2770 0 Blue 5
7 AM Tue 68 68 E 2 1659 2770 0 Blue 5
8 AM Tue 72 72 E 2 1705 2770 0 Blue 9
9 AM Tue 75 77 E 2 1780 2770 0 Blue 14
10 AM Tue 79 82 E 2 1897 2770 0 Blue 19
11 AM Tue 81 86 SW 9 1990 2770 0 Blue 23
12 Noon Tue 83 89 SW 9 2425 2770 0 Blue 26
1 PM Tue 84 90 SW 9 2563 2770 0 Blue 27
2 PM Tue 85 91 SW 9 2769 2770 0 Blue 28
3 PM Tue 84 89 SW 9 2425 2770 0 Blue 26
4 PM Tue 84 87 SW 9 2141 2770 0 Blue 24
5 PM Tue 84 86 SW 7 1990 2770 0 Blue 23
6 PM Tue 83 83 SW 7 1920 2770 0 Blue 20
7 PM Tue 81 81 SW 7 1873 2770 0 Blue 18
8 PM Tue 79 79 SW 7 1826 2770 0 Blue 16
9 PM Tue 77 77 SW 7 1780 2770 0 Blue 14
10 PM Tue 75 75 SW 7 1750 2770 0 Blue 12
11 PM Tue 74 74 SE 2 1735 2770 0 Blue 11
12 Midnight Wed 74 74 SE 2 1735 2770 0 Blue 11
1 AM Wed 73 73 SE 2 1720 2770 0 Blue 10
2 AM Wed 73 73 SE 2 1720 2770 0 Blue 10
3 AM Wed 72 72 SE 2 1705 2770 0 Blue 9
4 AM Wed 72 72 SE 2 1705 2770 0 Blue 9
5 AM Wed 72 72 E 3 1705 2770 0 Blue 9
6 AM Wed 70 70 E 3 1681 2770 0 Blue 7
7 AM Wed 70 70 E 3 1681 2770 0 Blue 7
8 AM Wed 74 74 E 3 1735 2770 0 Blue 11
9 AM Wed 77 79 E 3 1826 2770 0 Blue 16
10 AM Wed 81 85 E 3 1967 2770 0 Blue 22
11 AM Wed 83 88 SW 17 2287 2770 0 Blue 25
12 Noon Wed 85 91 SW 17 2769 2770 0 Blue 28
1 PM Wed 86 92 SW 17 2974 2770 0 Blue 29
2 PM Wed 87 93 SW 17 3557 2770 0 Blue 30
3 PM Wed 86 91 SW 17 2769 2770 0 Blue 28
4 PM Wed 86 89 SW 17 2425 2770 0 Blue 26
5 PM Wed 86 88 SW 17 2287 2770 0 Blue 25
6 PM Wed 84 84 SW 17 1943 2770 0 Blue 21
7 PM Wed 82 82 SW 17 1897 2770 0 Blue 19
8 PM Wed 80 80 SW 17 1850 2770 0 Blue 17
9 PM Wed 77 77 SW 17 1780 2770 0 Blue 14
10 PM Wed 75 75 SW 17 1750 2770 0 Blue 12
11 PM Wed 74 74 W 6 1735 2770 0 Blue 11
12 Midnight Thu 74 74 W 6 1735 2770 0 Blue 11
1 AM Thu 73 73 W 6 1720 2770 0 Blue 10
2 AM Thu 72 72 W 6 1705 2770 0 Blue 9
3 AM Thu 72 72 W 6 1705 2770 0 Blue 9
4 AM Thu 71 71 W 6 1691 2770 0 Blue 8
5 AM Thu 71 71 NE 3 1691 2770 0 Blue 8
6 AM Thu 69 69 NE 3 1670 2770 0 Blue 6
7 AM Thu 69 69 NE 3 1670 2770 0 Blue 6
8 AM Thu 73 73 NE 3 1720 2770 0 Blue 10
9 AM Thu 76 78 NE 3 1803 2770 0 Blue 15
10 AM Thu 79 82 NE 3 1897 2770 0 Blue 19
11 AM Thu 82 87 SW 9 2141 2770 0 Blue 24
12 Noon Thu 83 90 SW 9 2563 2770 0 Blue 27
1 PM Thu 84 91 SW 9 2769 2770 0 Blue 28
2 PM Thu 85 92 SW 9 2974 2770 0 Blue 29
3 PM Thu 84 90 SW 9 2563 2770 0 Blue 27
4 PM Thu 84 88 SW 9 2287 2770 0 Blue 25
5 PM Thu 84 86 SW 12 1990 2770 0 Blue 23
6 PM Thu 82 83 SW 12 1920 2770 0 Blue 20
7 PM Thu 81 81 SW 12 1873 2770 0 Blue 18
8 PM Thu 78 78 SW 12 1803 2770 0 Blue 15
9 PM Thu 76 76 SW 12 1765 2770 0 Blue 13
10 PM Thu 75 75 SW 12 1750 2770 0 Blue 12
11 PM Thu 74 74 SW 6 1735 2770 0 Blue 11
12 Midnight Fri 73 73 SW 6 1720 2770 0 Blue 10
1 AM Fri 72 72 SW 6 1705 2770 0 Blue 9
2 AM Fri 72 72 SW 6 1705 2770 0 Blue 9
3 AM Fri 72 72 SW 6 1705 2770 0 Blue 9
4 AM Fri 71 71 SW 6 1691 2770 0 Blue 8
5 AM Fri 71 71 S 5 1691 2770 0 Blue 8
6 AM Fri 69 69 S 5 1670 2770 0 Blue 6
7 AM Fri 69 69 S 5 1670 2770 0 Blue 6
8 AM Fri 72 72 S 5 1705 2770 0 Blue 9
9 AM Fri 75 77 S 5 1780 2770 0 Blue 14
10 AM Fri 78 81 S 5 1873 2770 0 Blue 18
11 AM Fri 81 86 SW 12 1990 2770 0 Blue 23
12 Noon Fri 82 89 SW 12 2425 2770 0 Blue 26
1 PM Fri 83 90 SW 12 2563 2770 0 Blue 27
2 PM Fri 84 91 SW 12 2769 2770 0 Blue 28
3 PM Fri 83 89 SW 12 2425 2770 0 Blue 26
4 PM Fri 83 87 SW 12 2141 2770 0 Blue 24
5 PM Fri 83 85 SW 12 1967 2770 0 Blue 22
6 PM Fri 82 83 SW 12 1920 2770 0 Blue 20
7 PM Fri 80 80 SW 12 1850 2770 0 Blue 17
8 PM Fri 78 78 SW 12 1803 2770 0 Blue 15
9 PM Fri 76 76 SW 12 1765 2770 0 Blue 13
10 PM Fri 74 74 SW 12 1735 2770 0 Blue 11
11 PM Fri 73 73 NW 3 1720 2770 0 Blue 10
12 Midnight Sat 73 73 NW 3 1720 2770 0 Blue 10
1 AM Sat 72 72 NW 3 1705 2770 0 Blue 9
2 AM Sat 72 72 NW 3 1705 2770 0 Blue 9
3 AM Sat 71 71 NW 3 1691 2770 0 Blue 8
4 AM Sat 71 71 NW 3 1691 2770 0 Blue 8

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com