Detailed Predictions for: Saddle Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 2770
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

25 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Mon 70 70 NE 20 1677 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 65 65 NE 20 1010 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 65 65 NE 20 1010 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 66 66 N 20 1010 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 69 70 N 20 1677 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 74 77 N 20 6694 4511 1741 Blue 7
11 AM Mon 78 82 N 16 8309 7882 5112 Blue 12
12 Noon Mon 83 88 N 16 8998 8620 5850 Blue 18
1 PM Mon 87 93 N 16 10361 9445 6675 Blue 23
2 PM Mon 91 96 W 3 11197 10280 7510 Blue 26
3 PM Mon 94 98 W 3 11745 10834 8064 Blue 28
4 PM Mon 95 97 W 3 11472 10558 7788 Blue 27
5 PM Mon 94 95 NW 8 10920 9998 7228 Blue 25
6 PM Mon 90 90 NW 8 9511 8844 6074 Blue 20
7 PM Mon 85 85 NW 8 8646 8284 5514 Blue 15
8 PM Mon 82 82 NW 10 8309 7882 5112 Blue 12
9 PM Mon 81 81 NW 10 8196 7247 4477 Blue 11
10 PM Mon 83 83 NW 10 8421 8060 5290 Blue 13
11 PM Mon 85 85 NE 14 8646 8284 5514 Blue 15
12 Midnight Tue 84 84 NE 14 8534 8172 5402 Blue 14
1 AM Tue 81 81 NE 14 8196 7247 4477 Blue 11
2 AM Tue 78 78 NE 20 7370 5127 2357 Blue 8
3 AM Tue 76 76 NE 20 5979 3812 1042 Blue 6
4 AM Tue 74 74 NE 20 4577 2770 0 Blue 4
5 AM Tue 72 72 NE 20 3110 2770 0 Blue 2
6 AM Tue 70 70 NE 20 1677 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 69 69 NE 20 1495 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 69 69 NE 21 1495 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 71 72 NE 21 3110 2770 0 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 75 78 NE 21 7370 5127 2357 Blue 8
11 AM Tue 80 84 NE 25 8534 8172 5402 Blue 14
12 Noon Tue 86 91 NE 25 9792 8956 6186 Blue 21
1 PM Tue 91 97 NE 25 11472 10558 7788 Blue 27
2 PM Tue 94 99 N 5 12016 11109 8339 Blue 29
3 PM Tue 95 99 N 5 12016 11109 8339 Blue 29
4 PM Tue 94 96 N 5 11197 10280 7510 Blue 26
5 PM Tue 92 93 NW 8 10361 9445 6675 Blue 23
6 PM Tue 90 90 NW 8 9511 8844 6074 Blue 20
7 PM Tue 88 88 NW 8 8998 8620 5850 Blue 18
8 PM Tue 85 85 N 3 8646 8284 5514 Blue 15
9 PM Tue 84 84 N 3 8534 8172 5402 Blue 14
10 PM Tue 81 81 N 3 8196 7247 4477 Blue 11
11 PM Tue 79 79 NE 9 7972 5876 3106 Blue 9
12 Midnight Wed 75 75 NE 9 5218 3073 303 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 72 72 NE 9 3110 2770 0 Blue 2
2 AM Wed 70 70 NE 13 1677 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 69 69 NE 13 1495 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 70 70 NE 13 1677 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 70 70 NE 17 1677 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 69 69 NE 17 1495 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 69 69 NE 17 1495 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 71 71 NE 18 2342 2770 0 Blue 1
9 AM Wed 76 77 NE 18 6694 4511 1741 Blue 7
10 AM Wed 83 86 NE 18 8759 8396 5626 Blue 16
11 AM Wed 89 93 NE 17 10361 9445 6675 Blue 23
12 Noon Wed 93 98 NE 17 11745 10834 8064 Blue 28
1 PM Wed 94 100 NE 17 12285 11382 8612 Blue 30
2 PM Wed 93 98 SW 12 11745 10834 8064 Blue 28
3 PM Wed 92 96 SW 12 11197 10280 7510 Blue 26
4 PM Wed 90 92 SW 12 10078 9190 6420 Blue 22
5 PM Wed 88 89 W 8 9255 8732 5962 Blue 19
6 PM Wed 87 87 W 8 8871 8508 5738 Blue 17
7 PM Wed 86 86 W 8 8759 8396 5626 Blue 16
8 PM Wed 83 83 W 8 8421 8060 5290 Blue 13
9 PM Wed 80 80 W 8 8084 6580 3810 Blue 10
10 PM Wed 77 77 W 8 6694 4511 1741 Blue 7
11 PM Wed 74 74 E 8 4577 2770 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Thu 72 72 E 8 3110 2770 0 Blue 2
1 AM Thu 71 71 E 8 2342 2770 0 Blue 1
2 AM Thu 71 71 E 8 2342 2770 0 Blue 1
3 AM Thu 71 71 E 8 2342 2770 0 Blue 1
4 AM Thu 71 71 E 8 2342 2770 0 Blue 1
5 AM Thu 72 72 NE 8 3110 2770 0 Blue 2
6 AM Thu 75 75 NE 8 5218 3073 303 Blue 5
7 AM Thu 78 78 NE 8 7370 5127 2357 Blue 8
8 AM Thu 81 81 NE 8 8196 7247 4477 Blue 11
9 AM Thu 85 86 NE 8 8759 8396 5626 Blue 16
10 AM Thu 89 92 NE 8 10078 9190 6420 Blue 22
11 AM Thu 91 95 S 14 10920 9998 7228 Blue 25
12 Noon Thu 93 98 S 14 11745 10834 8064 Blue 28
1 PM Thu 94 100 S 14 12285 11382 8612 Blue 30
2 PM Thu 94 99 S 14 12016 11109 8339 Blue 29
3 PM Thu 93 97 S 14 11472 10558 7788 Blue 27
4 PM Thu 91 93 S 14 10361 9445 6675 Blue 23
5 PM Thu 89 90 SW 16 9511 8844 6074 Blue 20
6 PM Thu 88 88 SW 16 8998 8620 5850 Blue 18
7 PM Thu 87 87 SW 16 8871 8508 5738 Blue 17
8 PM Thu 85 85 SW 16 8646 8284 5514 Blue 15
9 PM Thu 84 84 SW 16 8534 8172 5402 Blue 14
10 PM Thu 83 83 SW 16 8421 8060 5290 Blue 13
11 PM Thu 81 81 NW 6 8196 7247 4477 Blue 11
12 Midnight Fri 78 78 NW 6 7370 5127 2357 Blue 8
1 AM Fri 76 76 NW 6 5979 3812 1042 Blue 6
2 AM Fri 73 73 NW 6 3865 2770 0 Blue 3
3 AM Fri 72 72 NW 6 3110 2770 0 Blue 2
4 AM Fri 71 71 NW 6 2342 2770 0 Blue 1
5 AM Fri 72 72 N 7 3110 2770 0 Blue 2
6 AM Fri 74 74 N 7 4577 2770 0 Blue 4
7 AM Fri 78 78 N 7 7370 5127 2357 Blue 8
8 AM Fri 83 83 N 7 8421 8060 5290 Blue 13
9 AM Fri 88 89 N 7 9255 8732 5962 Blue 19
10 AM Fri 92 95 N 7 10920 9998 7228 Blue 25
11 AM Fri 96 100 S 15 12285 11382 8612 Blue 30
12 Noon Fri 98 103 S 15 13117 12189 9419 Blue 33
1 PM Fri 99 105 S 15 14922 12719 9949 Blue 35
2 PM Fri 99 104 S 15 14051 12455 9685 Blue 34
3 PM Fri 98 102 S 15 12819 11922 9152 Blue 32
4 PM Fri 97 99 S 15 12016 11109 8339 Blue 29
5 PM Fri 96 97 SW 17 11472 10558 7788 Blue 27
6 PM Fri 95 95 SW 17 10920 9998 7228 Blue 25
7 PM Fri 93 93 SW 17 10361 9445 6675 Blue 23
8 PM Fri 91 91 SW 17 9792 8956 6186 Blue 21
9 PM Fri 90 90 SW 17 9511 8844 6074 Blue 20
10 PM Fri 87 87 SW 17 8871 8508 5738 Blue 17
11 PM Fri 85 85 N 6 8646 8284 5514 Blue 15
12 Midnight Sat 82 82 N 6 8309 7882 5112 Blue 12
1 AM Sat 79 79 N 6 7972 5876 3106 Blue 9
2 AM Sat 76 76 N 6 5979 3812 1042 Blue 6
3 AM Sat 74 74 N 6 4577 2770 0 Blue 4
4 AM Sat 73 73 N 6 3865 2770 0 Blue 3
5 AM Sat 74 74 N 9 4577 2770 0 Blue 4
6 AM Sat 76 76 N 9 5979 3812 1042 Blue 6
7 AM Sat 80 80 N 9 8084 6580 3810 Blue 10
8 AM Sat 85 85 N 9 8646 8284 5514 Blue 15
9 AM Sat 90 91 N 9 9792 8956 6186 Blue 21
10 AM Sat 94 97 N 9 11472 10558 7788 Blue 27
11 AM Sat 98 102 S 14 12819 11922 9152 Blue 32
12 Noon Sat 100 105 S 14 14922 12719 9949 Blue 35
1 PM Sat 100 106 S 14 15722 12981 10211 Blue 36
2 PM Sat 100 105 S 14 14922 12719 9949 Blue 35
3 PM Sat 98 102 S 14 12819 11922 9152 Blue 32
4 PM Sat 97 99 S 14 12016 11109 8339 Blue 29
5 PM Sat 95 96 S 15 11197 10280 7510 Blue 26
6 PM Sat 93 93 S 15 10361 9445 6675 Blue 23
7 PM Sat 92 92 S 15 10078 9190 6420 Blue 22
8 PM Sat 90 90 S 15 9511 8844 6074 Blue 20
9 PM Sat 88 88 S 15 8998 8620 5850 Blue 18
10 PM Sat 85 85 S 15 8646 8284 5514 Blue 15
11 PM Sat 83 83 NE 2 8421 8060 5290 Blue 13
12 Midnight Sun 80 80 NE 2 8084 6580 3810 Blue 10
1 AM Sun 78 78 NE 2 7370 5127 2357 Blue 8
2 AM Sun 75 75 NE 2 5218 3073 303 Blue 5
3 AM Sun 74 74 NE 2 4577 2770 0 Blue 4
4 AM Sun 73 73 NE 2 3865 2770 0 Blue 3

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com