Detailed Predictions for: Saddle Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 2770
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

19 JUN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 55 55 N 5 1743 2770 0 Blue 1
6 AM Tue 55 55 N 5 1743 2770 0 Blue 1
7 AM Tue 59 59 N 5 1958 2770 0 Blue 5
8 AM Tue 66 67 NE 3 2414 2770 0 Blue 13
9 AM Tue 73 76 NE 3 3973 2770 0 Blue 22
10 AM Tue 77 82 NE 3 6483 5955 3185 Blue 28
11 AM Tue 81 88 W 3 7469 7136 4366 Blue 34
12 Noon Tue 83 91 W 3 7672 7456 4686 Blue 37
1 PM Tue 85 93 W 3 7807 7591 4821 Blue 39
2 PM Tue 87 95 SW 9 7942 7726 4956 Blue 41
3 PM Tue 88 94 SW 9 7875 7658 4888 Blue 40
4 PM Tue 88 92 SW 9 7739 7524 4754 Blue 38
5 PM Tue 86 89 SW 12 7537 7322 4552 Blue 35
6 PM Tue 84 85 SW 12 7205 6457 3687 Blue 31
7 PM Tue 81 81 SW 12 6321 5040 2270 Blue 27
8 PM Tue 77 77 E 3 4547 2819 49 Blue 23
9 PM Tue 75 75 E 3 3378 2770 0 Blue 21
10 PM Tue 73 73 E 3 2683 2770 0 Blue 19
11 PM Tue 70 70 NE 5 2573 2770 0 Blue 16
12 Midnight Wed 70 70 NE 5 2573 2770 0 Blue 16
1 AM Wed 68 68 NE 5 2471 2770 0 Blue 14
2 AM Wed 66 66 NE 5 2357 2770 0 Blue 12
3 AM Wed 66 66 NE 5 2357 2770 0 Blue 12
4 AM Wed 66 66 NE 5 2357 2770 0 Blue 12
5 AM Wed 65 65 NE 3 2299 2770 0 Blue 11
6 AM Wed 64 64 NE 3 2242 2770 0 Blue 10
7 AM Wed 69 69 NE 3 2528 2770 0 Blue 15
8 AM Wed 76 77 N 3 4547 2819 49 Blue 23
9 AM Wed 84 87 N 3 7402 6779 4009 Blue 33
10 AM Wed 88 93 N 3 7807 7591 4821 Blue 39
11 AM Wed 92 99 S 1 8555 8036 5266 Blue 45
12 Noon Wed 95 103 S 1 9312 8696 5926 Blue 49
1 PM Wed 97 105 S 1 9967 9059 6289 Blue 51
2 PM Wed 99 107 SW 13 10809 9555 6785 Blue 53
3 PM Wed 100 106 SW 13 10290 9241 6471 Blue 52
4 PM Wed 99 103 SW 13 9312 8696 5926 Blue 49
5 PM Wed 96 99 SW 13 8555 8036 5266 Blue 45
6 PM Wed 94 95 SW 13 7942 7726 4956 Blue 41
7 PM Wed 89 89 SW 13 7537 7322 4552 Blue 35
8 PM Wed 83 83 SW 9 6645 6135 3365 Blue 29
9 PM Wed 79 79 SW 9 5996 3929 1159 Blue 25
10 PM Wed 76 76 SW 9 3973 2770 0 Blue 22
11 PM Wed 72 72 E 5 2647 2770 0 Blue 18
12 Midnight Thu 72 72 E 5 2647 2770 0 Blue 18
1 AM Thu 68 68 E 5 2471 2770 0 Blue 14
2 AM Thu 66 66 E 5 2357 2770 0 Blue 12
3 AM Thu 65 65 E 5 2299 2770 0 Blue 11
4 AM Thu 65 65 E 5 2299 2770 0 Blue 11
5 AM Thu 64 64 NE 2 2242 2770 0 Blue 10
6 AM Thu 62 62 NE 2 2128 2770 0 Blue 8
7 AM Thu 66 66 NE 2 2357 2770 0 Blue 12
8 AM Thu 73 74 NE 3 2830 2770 0 Blue 20
9 AM Thu 80 83 NE 3 6645 6135 3365 Blue 29
10 AM Thu 84 89 NE 3 7537 7322 4552 Blue 35
11 AM Thu 87 94 S 1 7875 7658 4888 Blue 40
12 Noon Thu 89 97 S 1 8210 7861 5091 Blue 43
1 PM Thu 91 100 S 1 8738 8179 5409 Blue 46
2 PM Thu 93 101 S 12 8921 8331 5561 Blue 47
3 PM Thu 94 101 S 12 8921 8331 5561 Blue 47
4 PM Thu 93 98 S 12 8371 7928 5158 Blue 44
5 PM Thu 91 94 S 13 7875 7658 4888 Blue 40
6 PM Thu 89 90 S 13 7604 7389 4619 Blue 36
7 PM Thu 84 84 S 13 6823 6296 3526 Blue 30
8 PM Thu 80 80 S 13 6159 4494 1724 Blue 26
9 PM Thu 76 76 S 13 3973 2770 0 Blue 22
10 PM Thu 73 73 S 13 2683 2770 0 Blue 19
11 PM Thu 69 69 SE 3 2528 2770 0 Blue 15
12 Midnight Fri 69 69 SE 3 2528 2770 0 Blue 15
1 AM Fri 66 66 SE 3 2357 2770 0 Blue 12
2 AM Fri 64 64 SE 3 2242 2770 0 Blue 10
3 AM Fri 64 64 SE 3 2242 2770 0 Blue 10
4 AM Fri 63 63 SE 3 2185 2770 0 Blue 9
5 AM Fri 62 62 NE 2 2128 2770 0 Blue 8
6 AM Fri 61 61 NE 2 2072 2770 0 Blue 7
7 AM Fri 66 66 NE 2 2357 2770 0 Blue 12
8 AM Fri 72 73 NE 2 2683 2770 0 Blue 19
9 AM Fri 80 83 NE 2 6645 6135 3365 Blue 29
10 AM Fri 84 89 NE 2 7537 7322 4552 Blue 35
11 AM Fri 88 95 S 15 7942 7726 4956 Blue 41
12 Noon Fri 90 98 S 15 8371 7928 5158 Blue 44
1 PM Fri 92 101 S 15 8921 8331 5561 Blue 47
2 PM Fri 94 102 S 15 9104 8513 5743 Blue 48
3 PM Fri 95 102 S 15 9104 8513 5743 Blue 48
4 PM Fri 94 99 S 15 8555 8036 5266 Blue 45
5 PM Fri 92 95 SW 15 7942 7726 4956 Blue 41
6 PM Fri 90 91 SW 15 7672 7456 4686 Blue 37
7 PM Fri 85 85 SW 15 7205 6457 3687 Blue 31
8 PM Fri 80 80 SW 15 6159 4494 1724 Blue 26
9 PM Fri 76 76 SW 15 3973 2770 0 Blue 22
10 PM Fri 73 73 SW 15 2683 2770 0 Blue 19
11 PM Fri 70 70 E 3 2573 2770 0 Blue 16
12 Midnight Sat 70 70 E 3 2573 2770 0 Blue 16
1 AM Sat 67 67 E 3 2414 2770 0 Blue 13
2 AM Sat 64 64 E 3 2242 2770 0 Blue 10
3 AM Sat 64 64 E 3 2242 2770 0 Blue 10
4 AM Sat 64 64 E 3 2242 2770 0 Blue 10
5 AM Sat 62 62 E 6 2128 2770 0 Blue 8
6 AM Sat 61 61 E 6 2072 2770 0 Blue 7
7 AM Sat 65 65 E 6 2299 2770 0 Blue 11
8 AM Sat 71 72 E 6 2647 2770 0 Blue 18
9 AM Sat 78 81 E 6 6321 5040 2270 Blue 27
10 AM Sat 82 87 E 6 7402 6779 4009 Blue 33
11 AM Sat 85 92 S 15 7739 7524 4754 Blue 38
12 Noon Sat 87 95 S 15 7942 7726 4956 Blue 41
1 PM Sat 89 97 S 15 8210 7861 5091 Blue 43
2 PM Sat 92 100 S 15 8738 8179 5409 Blue 46
3 PM Sat 92 98 S 15 8371 7928 5158 Blue 44
4 PM Sat 91 95 S 15 7942 7726 4956 Blue 41
5 PM Sat 89 92 S 16 7739 7524 4754 Blue 38
6 PM Sat 87 88 S 16 7469 7136 4366 Blue 34
7 PM Sat 83 83 S 16 6645 6135 3365 Blue 29
8 PM Sat 78 78 S 16 5149 3344 574 Blue 24
9 PM Sat 75 75 S 16 3378 2770 0 Blue 21
10 PM Sat 71 71 S 16 2610 2770 0 Blue 17
11 PM Sat 68 68 E 8 2471 2770 0 Blue 14
12 Midnight Sun 68 68 E 8 2471 2770 0 Blue 14
1 AM Sun 65 65 E 8 2299 2770 0 Blue 11
2 AM Sun 63 63 E 8 2185 2770 0 Blue 9
3 AM Sun 63 63 E 8 2185 2770 0 Blue 9
4 AM Sun 62 62 E 8 2128 2770 0 Blue 8
5 AM Sun 61 61 E 8 2072 2770 0 Blue 7
6 AM Sun 60 60 E 8 2015 2770 0 Blue 6
7 AM Sun 64 64 E 8 2242 2770 0 Blue 10
8 AM Sun 70 71 E 8 2610 2770 0 Blue 17
9 AM Sun 76 79 E 8 5996 3929 1159 Blue 25
10 AM Sun 80 85 E 8 7205 6457 3687 Blue 31
11 AM Sun 83 90 S 14 7604 7389 4619 Blue 36
12 Noon Sun 85 93 S 14 7807 7591 4821 Blue 39
1 PM Sun 86 94 S 14 7875 7658 4888 Blue 40
2 PM Sun 89 97 S 14 8210 7861 5091 Blue 43
3 PM Sun 89 95 S 14 7942 7726 4956 Blue 41
4 PM Sun 88 92 S 14 7739 7524 4754 Blue 38
5 PM Sun 86 89 S 15 7537 7322 4552 Blue 35
6 PM Sun 84 85 S 15 7205 6457 3687 Blue 31
7 PM Sun 80 80 S 15 6159 4494 1724 Blue 26
8 PM Sun 75 75 S 15 3378 2770 0 Blue 21
9 PM Sun 72 72 S 15 2647 2770 0 Blue 18
10 PM Sun 68 68 S 15 2471 2770 0 Blue 14
11 PM Sun 65 65 SE 3 2299 2770 0 Blue 11
12 Midnight Mon 65 65 SE 3 2299 2770 0 Blue 11
1 AM Mon 62 62 SE 3 2128 2770 0 Blue 8
2 AM Mon 60 60 SE 3 2015 2770 0 Blue 6
3 AM Mon 60 60 SE 3 2015 2770 0 Blue 6
4 AM Mon 59 59 SE 3 1958 2770 0 Blue 5

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com