Detailed Predictions for: Saddle Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 2770
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

14 DEC 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 53 53 NE 9 1296 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 54 54 NE 9 1783 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 55 55 NE 9 2096 2770 0 Blue 1
7 AM Fri 53 53 E 8 1296 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 54 54 E 8 1783 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 56 56 E 8 2318 2770 0 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 59 59 E 7 2647 2770 0 Blue 5
11 AM Fri 62 62 E 7 2943 2770 0 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 63 63 E 7 3035 2770 0 Blue 9
1 PM Fri 64 64 SE 7 3126 2848 78 Blue 10
2 PM Fri 64 64 SE 7 3126 2848 78 Blue 10
3 PM Fri 64 64 SE 7 3126 2848 78 Blue 10
4 PM Fri 62 62 E 3 2943 2770 0 Blue 8
5 PM Fri 60 60 E 3 2761 2770 0 Blue 6
6 PM Fri 58 58 E 3 2537 2770 0 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 56 56 E 7 2318 2770 0 Blue 2
8 PM Fri 55 55 E 7 2096 2770 0 Blue 1
9 PM Fri 54 54 E 7 1783 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 53 53 NE 2 1296 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 53 53 NE 2 1296 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 52 52 NE 2 798 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 52 52 E 2 798 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 51 51 E 2 535 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 52 52 E 2 798 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 51 51 E 3 535 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 52 52 E 3 798 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 52 52 E 3 798 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 51 51 E 5 535 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 53 53 E 5 1296 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 55 55 E 5 2096 2770 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 59 60 E 5 2761 2770 0 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 62 64 E 5 3126 2848 78 Blue 10
12 Noon Sat 64 66 E 5 3475 3030 260 Blue 12
1 PM Sat 65 67 N 3 3689 3121 351 Blue 13
2 PM Sat 65 66 N 3 3475 3030 260 Blue 12
3 PM Sat 65 65 N 3 3260 2939 169 Blue 11
4 PM Sat 63 63 N 3 3035 2770 0 Blue 9
5 PM Sat 61 61 N 3 2852 2770 0 Blue 7
6 PM Sat 58 58 N 3 2537 2770 0 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 56 56 N 3 2318 2770 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 55 55 N 3 2096 2770 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sat 54 54 N 3 1783 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 53 53 NE 6 1296 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 53 53 NE 6 1296 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 52 52 NE 6 798 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 52 52 NE 6 798 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 51 51 NE 6 535 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 52 52 NE 6 798 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 51 51 NE 6 535 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 52 52 NE 6 798 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 52 52 NE 6 798 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 51 51 NE 6 535 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 53 53 NE 6 1296 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 55 55 NE 6 2096 2770 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 59 60 S 7 2761 2770 0 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 62 63 S 7 3035 2770 0 Blue 9
12 Noon Sun 64 65 S 7 3260 2939 169 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 65 66 S 7 3475 3030 260 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 65 66 S 7 3475 3030 260 Blue 12
3 PM Sun 65 65 S 7 3260 2939 169 Blue 11
4 PM Sun 63 63 SE 7 3035 2770 0 Blue 9
5 PM Sun 60 60 SE 7 2761 2770 0 Blue 6
6 PM Sun 57 57 SE 7 2428 2770 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sun 55 55 SE 7 2096 2770 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 53 53 SE 7 1296 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 52 52 SE 7 798 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 51 51 E 6 535 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 50 50 E 6 535 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 49 49 E 6 535 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 49 49 E 6 535 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 48 48 E 6 535 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 49 49 E 6 535 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 48 48 S 7 535 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 49 49 S 7 535 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 49 49 S 7 535 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 48 48 S 7 535 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 49 49 S 7 535 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 51 51 S 7 535 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 54 54 NW 6 1783 2770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 56 56 NW 6 2318 2770 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Mon 57 58 NW 6 2537 2770 0 Blue 4
1 PM Mon 58 58 NW 6 2537 2770 0 Blue 4
2 PM Mon 58 58 NW 6 2537 2770 0 Blue 4
3 PM Mon 58 58 NW 6 2537 2770 0 Blue 4
4 PM Mon 57 57 W 8 2428 2770 0 Blue 3
5 PM Mon 55 55 W 8 2096 2770 0 Blue 1
6 PM Mon 53 53 W 8 1296 2770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 51 51 W 8 535 2770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 50 50 W 8 535 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 50 50 W 8 535 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 49 49 N 7 535 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 49 49 N 7 535 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 48 48 N 7 535 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 48 48 N 7 535 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 47 47 N 7 535 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 48 48 N 7 535 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 47 47 N 7 535 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 48 48 N 7 535 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 48 48 N 7 535 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 47 47 N 7 535 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 49 49 N 7 535 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 52 52 N 7 798 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 56 57 N 8 2428 2770 0 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 59 61 N 8 2852 2770 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 61 63 N 8 3035 2770 0 Blue 9
1 PM Tue 62 64 N 8 3126 2848 78 Blue 10
2 PM Tue 62 63 N 8 3035 2770 0 Blue 9
3 PM Tue 62 62 N 8 2943 2770 0 Blue 8
4 PM Tue 61 61 NW 8 2852 2770 0 Blue 7
5 PM Tue 59 59 NW 8 2647 2770 0 Blue 5
6 PM Tue 57 57 NW 8 2428 2770 0 Blue 3
7 PM Tue 55 55 NW 8 2096 2770 0 Blue 1
8 PM Tue 54 54 NW 8 1783 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 54 54 NW 8 1783 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 53 53 N 8 1296 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 53 53 N 8 1296 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 52 52 N 8 798 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 52 52 N 8 798 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 51 51 N 8 535 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 52 52 N 8 798 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 51 51 N 8 535 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 52 52 N 8 798 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 52 52 N 8 798 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 51 51 N 8 535 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 54 54 N 8 1783 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 57 58 N 8 2537 2770 0 Blue 4
10 AM Wed 63 64 N 7 3126 2848 78 Blue 10
11 AM Wed 68 70 N 7 4521 3675 905 Blue 16
12 Noon Wed 71 73 N 7 5389 4490 1720 Blue 19
1 PM Wed 71 73 N 7 5389 4490 1720 Blue 19
2 PM Wed 72 73 N 7 5389 4490 1720 Blue 19
3 PM Wed 72 72 N 7 5136 4163 1393 Blue 18
4 PM Wed 70 70 NW 7 4521 3675 905 Blue 16
5 PM Wed 66 66 NW 7 3475 3030 260 Blue 12
6 PM Wed 63 63 NW 7 3035 2770 0 Blue 9
7 PM Wed 60 60 NW 7 2761 2770 0 Blue 6
8 PM Wed 58 58 NW 7 2537 2770 0 Blue 4
9 PM Wed 58 58 NW 7 2537 2770 0 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 56 56 N 8 2318 2770 0 Blue 2
11 PM Wed 56 56 N 8 2318 2770 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Thu 54 54 N 8 1783 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 54 54 N 8 1783 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 53 53 N 8 1296 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 54 54 N 8 1783 2770 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com