Detailed Predictions for: Saddle Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 2770
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

4 DEC 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 37 37 NE 22 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 37 37 NE 22 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 38 38 NE 22 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 37 37 NE 22 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 43 43 NE 22 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 51 52 NE 22 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 59 60 NE 17 1529 2770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 66 68 NE 17 3317 2770 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Fri 70 72 NE 17 4260 3539 769 Blue 9
1 PM Fri 71 73 NW 6 4493 3774 1004 Blue 10
2 PM Fri 72 73 NW 6 4493 3774 1004 Blue 10
3 PM Fri 71 71 NW 6 4026 3304 534 Blue 8
4 PM Fri 68 68 NW 6 3317 2770 0 Blue 5
5 PM Fri 63 63 NW 6 1743 2770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 58 58 NW 6 1397 2770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 54 54 NW 6 1133 2770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 51 51 NW 6 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 49 49 NW 6 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 46 46 N 16 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 44 44 N 16 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 44 44 N 16 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 43 43 N 15 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 42 42 N 15 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 41 41 N 15 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 41 41 NE 14 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 40 40 NE 14 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 41 41 NE 14 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 40 40 NE 15 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 45 45 NE 15 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 52 52 NE 15 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 59 60 NE 14 1529 2770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 65 67 NE 14 3079 2770 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 68 70 NE 14 3790 3068 298 Blue 7
1 PM Sat 69 71 N 10 4026 3304 534 Blue 8
2 PM Sat 70 71 N 10 4026 3304 534 Blue 8
3 PM Sat 69 69 N 10 3554 2770 0 Blue 6
4 PM Sat 66 66 NW 12 2575 2770 0 Blue 3
5 PM Sat 61 61 NW 12 1596 2770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 56 56 NW 12 1265 2770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 52 52 N 8 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 49 49 N 8 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 47 47 N 8 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 44 44 N 10 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 42 42 N 10 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 42 42 N 10 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 41 41 N 10 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 40 40 N 10 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 39 39 N 10 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 39 39 NE 9 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 38 38 NE 9 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 39 39 NE 9 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 38 38 NE 10 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 44 44 NE 10 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 50 50 NE 10 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 58 59 E 2 1463 2770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 65 67 E 2 3079 2770 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 68 70 E 2 3790 3068 298 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 69 70 E 2 3790 3068 298 Blue 7
2 PM Sun 70 71 E 2 4026 3304 534 Blue 8
3 PM Sun 69 69 E 2 3554 2770 0 Blue 6
4 PM Sun 67 67 W 9 3079 2770 0 Blue 4
5 PM Sun 63 63 W 9 1743 2770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 59 59 W 9 1463 2770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 56 56 NW 6 1265 2770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 54 54 NW 6 1133 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 52 52 NW 6 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 50 50 N 7 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 48 48 N 7 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 48 48 N 7 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 47 47 NE 14 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 47 47 NE 14 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 46 46 NE 14 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 45 45 NE 14 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 45 45 NE 14 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 46 46 NE 14 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 45 45 NE 14 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 50 50 NE 14 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 56 56 NE 14 1265 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 63 64 NE 16 1873 2770 0 Blue 1
11 AM Mon 68 69 NE 16 3554 2770 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Mon 71 73 NE 16 4493 3774 1004 Blue 10
1 PM Mon 72 73 NE 17 4493 3774 1004 Blue 10
2 PM Mon 73 74 NE 17 4726 4007 1237 Blue 11
3 PM Mon 72 72 NE 17 4260 3539 769 Blue 9
4 PM Mon 70 70 NE 14 3790 3068 298 Blue 7
5 PM Mon 66 66 NE 14 2575 2770 0 Blue 3
6 PM Mon 62 62 NE 14 1662 2770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 60 60 NE 14 1529 2770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 57 57 NE 14 1331 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 55 55 NE 14 1199 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 54 54 NE 14 1133 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 52 52 NE 14 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 52 52 NE 14 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 51 51 N 16 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 51 51 N 16 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 50 50 N 16 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 49 49 N 16 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 49 49 N 16 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 50 50 N 16 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 49 49 N 16 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 54 54 N 16 1133 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 59 59 N 16 1463 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 66 67 NE 17 3079 2770 0 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 71 73 NE 17 4493 3774 1004 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 74 76 NE 17 5343 4472 1702 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 75 76 NE 16 5343 4472 1702 Blue 13
2 PM Tue 76 77 NE 16 6026 4703 1933 Blue 14
3 PM Tue 75 75 NE 16 4958 4240 1470 Blue 12
4 PM Tue 72 72 N 13 4260 3539 769 Blue 9
5 PM Tue 67 67 N 13 3079 2770 0 Blue 4
6 PM Tue 63 63 N 13 1743 2770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 59 59 N 9 1463 2770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 56 56 N 9 1265 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 54 54 N 9 1133 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 52 52 N 10 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 49 49 N 10 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 50 50 N 10 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 49 49 N 9 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 48 48 N 9 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 47 47 N 9 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 46 46 N 9 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 46 46 N 9 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 47 47 N 9 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 46 46 NE 10 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 51 51 NE 10 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 57 57 NE 10 1331 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 64 65 NE 9 2021 2770 0 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 69 71 NE 9 4026 3304 534 Blue 8
12 Noon Wed 72 74 NE 9 4726 4007 1237 Blue 11
1 PM Wed 73 75 S 10 4958 4240 1470 Blue 12
2 PM Wed 74 75 S 10 4958 4240 1470 Blue 12
3 PM Wed 73 73 S 10 4493 3774 1004 Blue 10
4 PM Wed 71 71 W 8 4026 3304 534 Blue 8
5 PM Wed 66 66 W 8 2575 2770 0 Blue 3
6 PM Wed 61 61 W 8 1596 2770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 58 58 NW 7 1397 2770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 55 55 NW 7 1199 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 53 53 NW 7 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 51 51 NE 8 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 48 48 NE 8 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 49 49 NE 8 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 48 48 NE 8 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 47 47 NE 8 1102 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 46 46 NE 8 1102 2770 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com