Detailed Predictions for: Saddle Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 2770
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

18 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Thu 58 58 E 2 1258 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 57 57 E 2 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 56 56 E 2 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 56 56 SE 3 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 61 61 SE 3 2168 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 69 69 SE 3 2867 2770 0 Blue 7
10 AM Thu 76 77 SW 3 4506 3541 771 Blue 14
11 AM Thu 78 79 SW 3 5417 4107 1337 Blue 16
12 Noon Thu 78 80 SW 3 6178 4472 1702 Blue 17
1 PM Thu 77 79 SW 12 5417 4107 1337 Blue 16
2 PM Thu 78 79 SW 12 5417 4107 1337 Blue 16
3 PM Thu 78 78 SW 12 4870 3806 1036 Blue 15
4 PM Thu 77 77 SW 12 4506 3541 771 Blue 14
5 PM Thu 76 76 SW 12 4137 3275 505 Blue 13
6 PM Thu 74 74 SW 12 3558 2946 176 Blue 11
7 PM Thu 72 72 SW 3 3020 2866 96 Blue 9
8 PM Thu 70 70 SW 3 2907 2785 15 Blue 8
9 PM Thu 69 69 SW 3 2867 2770 0 Blue 7
10 PM Thu 67 67 SW 1 2787 2770 0 Blue 5
11 PM Thu 65 65 SW 1 2707 2770 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Fri 63 63 SW 1 2615 2770 0 Blue 1
1 AM Fri 62 62 NE 1 2467 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 60 60 NE 1 1867 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 58 58 NE 1 1258 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 56 56 W 1 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 55 55 W 1 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 54 54 W 1 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 62 62 W 8 2467 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 52 52 W 8 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 52 52 W 8 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 51 52 W 6 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 51 52 W 6 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 51 52 W 6 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 51 52 NW 13 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 52 53 NW 13 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 60 60 NW 13 1867 2770 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 62 62 NW 28 2467 2770 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 61 61 NW 28 2168 2770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 60 60 NW 28 1867 2770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 58 58 NW 28 1258 2770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 58 58 NW 28 1258 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 57 57 NW 28 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 56 56 N 21 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 55 55 N 21 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 52 52 N 21 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 49 49 N 21 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 46 46 N 21 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 43 43 N 21 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 42 42 N 21 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 41 41 N 21 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 41 41 N 21 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 42 42 N 21 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 42 42 N 21 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 44 45 N 21 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 46 47 NW 12 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 49 51 NW 12 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 54 56 NW 12 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 58 60 NW 12 1867 2770 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 61 62 NW 12 2467 2770 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 62 63 NW 12 2615 2770 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sat 62 62 NW 12 2467 2770 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 60 60 NW 12 1867 2770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 57 57 NW 12 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 53 53 NW 12 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 50 50 NW 12 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 47 47 NW 12 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 45 45 N 15 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 44 44 N 15 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 45 45 N 15 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 45 45 N 15 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 44 44 N 15 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 43 43 N 15 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 42 42 NE 9 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 41 41 NE 9 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 41 41 NE 9 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 42 42 NE 9 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 43 43 NE 9 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 45 45 NE 9 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 47 48 W 9 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 49 50 W 9 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 52 54 W 9 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 55 56 W 9 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 57 58 W 9 1258 2770 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 59 59 W 9 1563 2770 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 61 61 W 9 2168 2770 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 62 62 W 9 2467 2770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 62 62 W 9 2467 2770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 61 61 W 9 2168 2770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 60 60 W 9 1867 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 57 57 W 9 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 54 54 N 3 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 52 52 N 3 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 49 49 N 3 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 47 47 N 3 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 46 46 N 3 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 45 45 N 3 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 45 45 N 3 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 46 46 N 3 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 47 47 N 3 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 49 49 N 3 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 51 51 N 3 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 53 53 N 3 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 55 56 W 9 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 57 58 W 9 1258 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 59 60 W 9 1867 2770 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 61 62 W 9 2467 2770 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 63 64 W 9 2663 2770 0 Blue 2
3 PM Mon 64 64 W 9 2663 2770 0 Blue 2
4 PM Mon 65 65 W 9 2707 2770 0 Blue 3
5 PM Mon 66 66 W 9 2747 2770 0 Blue 4
6 PM Mon 67 67 W 9 2787 2770 0 Blue 5
7 PM Mon 67 67 W 9 2787 2770 0 Blue 5
8 PM Mon 67 67 W 9 2787 2770 0 Blue 5
9 PM Mon 66 66 W 9 2747 2770 0 Blue 4
10 PM Mon 64 64 N 10 2663 2770 0 Blue 2
11 PM Mon 62 62 N 10 2467 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 58 58 N 10 1258 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 55 55 N 10 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 52 52 N 10 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 50 50 N 10 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 48 48 N 10 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 48 48 N 10 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 48 48 N 10 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 50 50 N 10 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 51 51 N 10 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 53 53 N 10 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 56 57 NW 5 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 59 61 NW 5 2168 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 62 64 NW 5 2663 2770 0 Blue 2
1 PM Tue 65 67 NW 5 2787 2770 0 Blue 5
2 PM Tue 67 68 NW 5 2827 2770 0 Blue 6
3 PM Tue 70 70 NW 5 2907 2785 15 Blue 8
4 PM Tue 71 71 NW 5 2948 2825 55 Blue 9
5 PM Tue 71 71 NW 5 2948 2825 55 Blue 9
6 PM Tue 70 70 NW 5 2907 2785 15 Blue 8
7 PM Tue 68 68 NW 5 2827 2770 0 Blue 6
8 PM Tue 65 65 NW 5 2707 2770 0 Blue 3
9 PM Tue 62 62 NW 5 2467 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 58 58 N 8 1258 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 56 56 N 8 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 53 53 N 8 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 52 52 N 8 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 50 50 N 8 1109 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 50 50 N 8 1109 2770 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com