Detailed Predictions for: Saddle Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 2770
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

15 JUN 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 55 55 SE 7 1920 2770 0 Blue 5
6 AM Sat 54 54 SE 7 1895 2770 0 Blue 4
7 AM Sat 55 55 SE 7 1920 2770 0 Blue 5
8 AM Sat 57 57 SE 3 1971 2770 0 Blue 7
9 AM Sat 60 60 SE 3 2428 2770 0 Blue 10
10 AM Sat 63 63 SE 3 2605 2770 0 Blue 13
11 AM Sat 68 73 S 6 3247 3073 303 Blue 23
12 Noon Sat 70 76 S 6 3516 3243 473 Blue 26
1 PM Sat 72 78 S 6 3799 3413 643 Blue 28
2 PM Sat 74 79 SW 9 3833 3510 740 Blue 29
3 PM Sat 74 78 SW 9 3799 3413 643 Blue 28
4 PM Sat 74 77 SW 9 3657 3316 546 Blue 27
5 PM Sat 74 76 SW 13 3516 3243 473 Blue 26
6 PM Sat 72 73 SW 13 3247 3073 303 Blue 23
7 PM Sat 70 70 SW 13 3076 2865 95 Blue 20
8 PM Sat 66 66 SW 10 2791 2770 0 Blue 16
9 PM Sat 63 63 SW 10 2605 2770 0 Blue 13
10 PM Sat 61 61 SW 10 2502 2770 0 Blue 11
11 PM Sat 58 58 SE 6 2062 2770 0 Blue 8
12 Midnight Sun 57 57 SE 6 1971 2770 0 Blue 7
1 AM Sun 56 56 SE 6 1946 2770 0 Blue 6
2 AM Sun 55 55 SE 3 1920 2770 0 Blue 5
3 AM Sun 55 55 SE 3 1920 2770 0 Blue 5
4 AM Sun 54 54 SE 3 1895 2770 0 Blue 4
5 AM Sun 55 55 SE 3 1920 2770 0 Blue 5
6 AM Sun 54 54 SE 3 1895 2770 0 Blue 4
7 AM Sun 55 55 SE 3 1920 2770 0 Blue 5
8 AM Sun 57 57 SE 3 1971 2770 0 Blue 7
9 AM Sun 60 60 SE 3 2428 2770 0 Blue 10
10 AM Sun 63 63 SE 3 2605 2770 0 Blue 13
11 AM Sun 68 73 SW 6 3247 3073 303 Blue 23
12 Noon Sun 70 76 SW 6 3516 3243 473 Blue 26
1 PM Sun 72 78 SW 6 3799 3413 643 Blue 28
2 PM Sun 74 79 SW 7 3833 3510 740 Blue 29
3 PM Sun 74 78 SW 7 3799 3413 643 Blue 28
4 PM Sun 74 77 SW 7 3657 3316 546 Blue 27
5 PM Sun 74 76 SW 9 3516 3243 473 Blue 26
6 PM Sun 72 73 SW 9 3247 3073 303 Blue 23
7 PM Sun 69 69 SW 9 3019 2788 18 Blue 19
8 PM Sun 66 66 SW 9 2791 2770 0 Blue 16
9 PM Sun 62 62 SW 9 2554 2770 0 Blue 12
10 PM Sun 60 60 SW 9 2428 2770 0 Blue 10
11 PM Sun 57 57 SE 6 1971 2770 0 Blue 7
12 Midnight Mon 56 56 SE 6 1946 2770 0 Blue 6
1 AM Mon 55 55 SE 6 1920 2770 0 Blue 5
2 AM Mon 54 54 SE 6 1895 2770 0 Blue 4
3 AM Mon 54 54 SE 6 1895 2770 0 Blue 4
4 AM Mon 54 54 SE 6 1895 2770 0 Blue 4
5 AM Mon 54 54 SE 3 1895 2770 0 Blue 4
6 AM Mon 53 53 SE 3 1866 2770 0 Blue 3
7 AM Mon 54 54 SE 3 1895 2770 0 Blue 4
8 AM Mon 56 56 SE 3 1946 2770 0 Blue 6
9 AM Mon 59 59 SE 3 2263 2770 0 Blue 9
10 AM Mon 62 62 SE 3 2554 2770 0 Blue 12
11 AM Mon 66 73 S 10 3247 3073 303 Blue 23
12 Noon Mon 69 77 S 10 3657 3316 546 Blue 27
1 PM Mon 70 78 S 10 3799 3413 643 Blue 28
2 PM Mon 72 80 S 10 3868 3639 869 Blue 30
3 PM Mon 72 78 S 10 3799 3413 643 Blue 28
4 PM Mon 72 76 S 10 3516 3243 473 Blue 26
5 PM Mon 72 74 S 8 3322 3130 360 Blue 24
6 PM Mon 70 71 S 8 3133 2943 173 Blue 21
7 PM Mon 68 68 S 8 2947 2770 0 Blue 18
8 PM Mon 65 65 S 8 2713 2770 0 Blue 15
9 PM Mon 62 62 S 8 2554 2770 0 Blue 12
10 PM Mon 60 60 S 8 2428 2770 0 Blue 10
11 PM Mon 58 58 S 5 2062 2770 0 Blue 8
12 Midnight Tue 57 57 S 5 1971 2770 0 Blue 7
1 AM Tue 56 56 S 5 1946 2770 0 Blue 6
2 AM Tue 55 55 S 5 1920 2770 0 Blue 5
3 AM Tue 55 55 S 5 1920 2770 0 Blue 5
4 AM Tue 54 54 S 5 1895 2770 0 Blue 4
5 AM Tue 55 55 S 3 1920 2770 0 Blue 5
6 AM Tue 54 54 S 3 1895 2770 0 Blue 4
7 AM Tue 55 55 S 3 1920 2770 0 Blue 5
8 AM Tue 58 58 S 3 2062 2770 0 Blue 8
9 AM Tue 60 60 S 3 2428 2770 0 Blue 10
10 AM Tue 64 64 S 3 2657 2770 0 Blue 14
11 AM Tue 69 76 SW 15 3516 3243 473 Blue 26
12 Noon Tue 72 80 SW 15 3868 3639 869 Blue 30
1 PM Tue 73 81 SW 15 3903 3796 1026 Blue 31
2 PM Tue 75 83 SW 15 3998 3865 1095 Blue 33
3 PM Tue 76 82 SW 15 3937 3831 1061 Blue 32
4 PM Tue 76 80 SW 15 3868 3639 869 Blue 30
5 PM Tue 76 78 SW 17 3799 3413 643 Blue 28
6 PM Tue 74 75 SW 17 3419 3187 417 Blue 25
7 PM Tue 72 72 SW 17 3190 3016 246 Blue 22
8 PM Tue 68 68 SW 17 2947 2770 0 Blue 18
9 PM Tue 65 65 SW 17 2713 2770 0 Blue 15
10 PM Tue 63 63 SW 17 2605 2770 0 Blue 13
11 PM Tue 60 60 SW 8 2428 2770 0 Blue 10
12 Midnight Wed 59 59 SW 8 2263 2770 0 Blue 9
1 AM Wed 58 58 SW 8 2062 2770 0 Blue 8
2 AM Wed 57 57 SW 8 1971 2770 0 Blue 7
3 AM Wed 57 57 SW 8 1971 2770 0 Blue 7
4 AM Wed 56 56 SW 8 1946 2770 0 Blue 6
5 AM Wed 57 57 SW 6 1971 2770 0 Blue 7
6 AM Wed 56 56 SW 6 1946 2770 0 Blue 6
7 AM Wed 57 57 SW 6 1971 2770 0 Blue 7
8 AM Wed 60 60 SW 6 2428 2770 0 Blue 10
9 AM Wed 62 62 SW 6 2554 2770 0 Blue 12
10 AM Wed 66 66 SW 6 2791 2770 0 Blue 16
11 AM Wed 70 75 SW 22 3419 3187 417 Blue 25
12 Noon Wed 73 79 SW 22 3833 3510 740 Blue 29
1 PM Wed 75 81 SW 22 3903 3796 1026 Blue 31
2 PM Wed 76 81 SW 22 3903 3796 1026 Blue 31
3 PM Wed 77 81 SW 22 3903 3796 1026 Blue 31
4 PM Wed 77 80 SW 22 3868 3639 869 Blue 30
5 PM Wed 77 79 SW 22 3833 3510 740 Blue 29
6 PM Wed 75 76 SW 22 3516 3243 473 Blue 26
7 PM Wed 73 73 SW 22 3247 3073 303 Blue 23
8 PM Wed 69 69 SW 22 3019 2788 18 Blue 19
9 PM Wed 66 66 SW 22 2791 2770 0 Blue 16
10 PM Wed 64 64 SW 22 2657 2770 0 Blue 14
11 PM Wed 61 61 SW 9 2502 2770 0 Blue 11
12 Midnight Thu 60 60 SW 9 2428 2770 0 Blue 10
1 AM Thu 59 59 SW 9 2263 2770 0 Blue 9
2 AM Thu 58 58 SW 9 2062 2770 0 Blue 8
3 AM Thu 58 58 SW 9 2062 2770 0 Blue 8
4 AM Thu 57 57 SW 9 1971 2770 0 Blue 7
5 AM Thu 58 58 SW 8 2062 2770 0 Blue 8
6 AM Thu 57 57 SW 8 1971 2770 0 Blue 7
7 AM Thu 58 58 SW 8 2062 2770 0 Blue 8
8 AM Thu 60 60 SW 8 2428 2770 0 Blue 10
9 AM Thu 63 63 SW 8 2605 2770 0 Blue 13
10 AM Thu 66 66 SW 8 2791 2770 0 Blue 16
11 AM Thu 70 75 SW 23 3419 3187 417 Blue 25
12 Noon Thu 73 79 SW 23 3833 3510 740 Blue 29
1 PM Thu 74 80 SW 23 3868 3639 869 Blue 30
2 PM Thu 76 81 SW 23 3903 3796 1026 Blue 31
3 PM Thu 76 80 SW 23 3868 3639 869 Blue 30
4 PM Thu 76 79 SW 23 3833 3510 740 Blue 29
5 PM Thu 76 78 SW 22 3799 3413 643 Blue 28
6 PM Thu 74 75 SW 22 3419 3187 417 Blue 25
7 PM Thu 72 72 SW 22 3190 3016 246 Blue 22
8 PM Thu 68 68 SW 22 2947 2770 0 Blue 18
9 PM Thu 65 65 SW 22 2713 2770 0 Blue 15
10 PM Thu 63 63 SW 22 2605 2770 0 Blue 13
11 PM Thu 60 60 SW 10 2428 2770 0 Blue 10
12 Midnight Fri 59 59 SW 10 2263 2770 0 Blue 9
1 AM Fri 58 58 SW 10 2062 2770 0 Blue 8
2 AM Fri 57 57 SW 10 1971 2770 0 Blue 7
3 AM Fri 57 57 SW 10 1971 2770 0 Blue 7
4 AM Fri 56 56 SW 10 1946 2770 0 Blue 6

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com