Detailed Predictions for: Saddle Peak
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.076058, -118.658831, 2770
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

5 MAR 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Fri 60 60 NNW 3 4 4317 3638 868 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 61 61 N 3 4 4688 3861 1091 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 61 61 N 3 3 4688 3861 1091 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 60 60 NNW 3 3 4317 3638 868 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 60 60 NNW 2 4 4317 3638 868 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 59 59 NNW 2 4 4093 3413 643 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 58 58 SW 3 4 3869 3189 419 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 57 57 ESE 3 5 3644 2963 193 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 57 58 N 3 6 3869 3189 419 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 61 63 E 2 4 5925 4305 1535 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 66 70 SSE 1 2 7226 6471 3701 Blue 9
11 AM Fri 70 75 WSW 0 0 8636 7749 4979 Blue 14
12 Noon Fri 71 76 WSW 1 2 8913 8029 5259 Blue 15
1 PM Fri 72 77 SW 3 4 9188 8307 5537 Blue 16
2 PM Fri 73 77 SW 5 5 9188 8307 5537 Blue 16
3 PM Fri 72 74 WSW 6 7 8358 7468 4698 Blue 13
4 PM Fri 70 71 WSW 7 8 7512 6612 3842 Blue 10
5 PM Fri 68 68 W 8 10 6649 6191 3421 Blue 7
6 PM Fri 66 66 W 8 10 6348 5911 3141 Blue 5
7 PM Fri 63 63 WNW 7 11 5925 4305 1535 Blue 2
8 PM Fri 60 60 WNW 7 11 4317 3638 868 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 60 60 WNW 6 9 4317 3638 868 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 59 59 NW 5 8 4093 3413 643 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 59 59 NW 4 6 4093 3413 643 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 58 58 NW 4 6 3869 3189 419 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 57 57 WNW 5 6 3644 2963 193 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 57 57 WNW 5 6 3644 2963 193 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 57 57 WNW 4 5 3644 2963 193 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 57 57 NW 3 4 3644 2963 193 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 57 57 NW 2 2 3644 2963 193 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 57 57 SW 2 2 3644 2963 193 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 56 56 ESE 1 2 3418 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 55 56 NNE 1 1 3418 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 58 60 ENE 1 2 4317 3638 868 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 61 65 ESE 2 2 6207 5307 2537 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 63 68 S 2 3 6649 6191 3421 Blue 7
12 Noon Sat 64 69 SSW 5 5 6938 6331 3561 Blue 8
1 PM Sat 64 69 SSW 7 8 6938 6331 3561 Blue 8
2 PM Sat 64 68 SW 9 11 6649 6191 3421 Blue 7
3 PM Sat 63 65 WSW 10 12 6207 5307 2537 Blue 4
4 PM Sat 62 63 WSW 11 13 5925 4305 1535 Blue 2
5 PM Sat 61 61 WSW 12 14 4688 3861 1091 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 60 60 W 10 11 4317 3638 868 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 60 60 W 7 8 4317 3638 868 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 59 59 W 5 6 4093 3413 643 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 55 55 WSW 4 4 3192 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 52 52 SW 3 3 2733 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 48 48 SSW 1 2 2733 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 50 50 S 2 3 2733 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 51 51 SE 3 5 2733 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 52 52 E 4 7 2733 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 52 52 E 5 7 2733 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 52 52 E 5 8 2733 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 52 52 ESE 6 8 2733 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 51 51 ESE 5 8 2733 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 50 50 ESE 5 8 2733 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 50 51 ESE 5 7 2733 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 52 54 ESE 5 6 2965 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 53 56 SE 4 6 3418 2770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 55 59 SE 4 5 4093 3413 643 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 56 59 SSE 5 6 4093 3413 643 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 57 58 S 5 6 3869 3189 419 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 59 59 S 6 6 4093 3413 643 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 59 59 SSW 6 6 4093 3413 643 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 59 59 SW 6 6 4093 3413 643 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 59 59 WSW 6 6 4093 3413 643 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 58 58 WSW 5 6 3869 3189 419 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 57 57 WSW 5 6 3644 2963 193 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 55 55 W 4 5 3192 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 54 54 WSW 3 4 2965 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 53 53 SSW 2 3 2737 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 52 52 S 1 1 2733 2770 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com