Detailed Predictions for: Saddle Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 2770
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

17 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 54 54 NE 5 1483 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 54 54 NE 5 1483 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 54 54 NE 5 1483 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 55 55 E 6 1483 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 59 60 E 6 1483 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 64 66 E 6 2910 2770 0 Blue 2
11 AM Thu 68 71 S 14 3290 3058 288 Blue 7
12 Noon Thu 71 75 S 14 3972 3362 592 Blue 11
1 PM Thu 72 76 S 14 4555 3438 668 Blue 12
2 PM Thu 72 76 S 13 4555 3438 668 Blue 12
3 PM Thu 72 75 S 13 3972 3362 592 Blue 11
4 PM Thu 71 72 S 13 3366 3134 364 Blue 8
5 PM Thu 70 70 SW 13 3214 2982 212 Blue 6
6 PM Thu 68 68 SW 13 3062 2831 61 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 65 65 SW 13 2834 2770 0 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 63 63 W 15 1932 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 61 61 W 15 1483 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 59 59 W 15 1483 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 58 58 N 17 1483 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 58 58 N 17 1483 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 57 57 N 17 1483 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 57 57 N 17 1483 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 56 56 N 17 1483 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 56 56 N 17 1483 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 55 55 N 23 1483 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 55 55 N 23 1483 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 55 55 N 23 1483 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 56 56 N 23 1483 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 61 62 N 23 1483 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 66 68 N 23 3062 2831 61 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 71 74 N 18 3652 3286 516 Blue 10
12 Noon Fri 75 79 N 18 6951 4489 1719 Blue 15
1 PM Fri 76 80 N 18 7422 4893 2123 Blue 16
2 PM Fri 76 79 NW 22 6951 4489 1719 Blue 15
3 PM Fri 76 78 NW 22 6036 3947 1177 Blue 14
4 PM Fri 75 76 NW 22 4555 3438 668 Blue 12
5 PM Fri 73 73 N 20 3443 3210 440 Blue 9
6 PM Fri 70 70 N 20 3214 2982 212 Blue 6
7 PM Fri 67 67 N 20 2986 2770 0 Blue 3
8 PM Fri 64 64 N 20 2421 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 61 61 N 20 1483 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 59 59 N 20 1483 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 57 57 N 16 1483 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 57 57 N 16 1483 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 56 56 N 16 1483 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 56 56 N 16 1483 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 55 55 N 16 1483 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 54 54 N 16 1483 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 53 53 NE 15 1483 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 53 53 NE 15 1483 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 53 53 NE 15 1483 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 54 54 NE 15 1483 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 59 60 NE 15 1483 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 65 67 NE 15 2986 2770 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 70 73 NW 18 3443 3210 440 Blue 9
12 Noon Sat 73 77 NW 18 5011 3630 860 Blue 13
1 PM Sat 75 79 NW 18 6951 4489 1719 Blue 15
2 PM Sat 75 79 NW 18 6951 4489 1719 Blue 15
3 PM Sat 75 78 NW 18 6036 3947 1177 Blue 14
4 PM Sat 74 75 NW 18 3972 3362 592 Blue 11
5 PM Sat 73 73 NW 17 3443 3210 440 Blue 9
6 PM Sat 70 70 NW 17 3214 2982 212 Blue 6
7 PM Sat 68 68 NW 17 3062 2831 61 Blue 4
8 PM Sat 66 66 NW 17 2910 2770 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sat 63 63 NW 17 1932 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 62 62 NW 17 1483 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 60 60 N 18 1483 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 60 60 N 18 1483 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 59 59 N 18 1483 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 59 59 N 18 1483 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 58 58 N 18 1483 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 58 58 N 18 1483 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 57 57 N 16 1483 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 57 57 N 16 1483 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 57 57 N 16 1483 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 58 58 N 16 1483 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 64 65 N 16 2834 2770 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 70 72 N 16 3366 3134 364 Blue 8
11 AM Sun 76 79 N 28 6951 4489 1719 Blue 15
12 Noon Sun 79 83 N 28 7964 7388 4618 Blue 19
1 PM Sun 81 85 N 28 8323 7747 4977 Blue 21
2 PM Sun 81 85 N 28 8323 7747 4977 Blue 21
3 PM Sun 81 84 N 28 8144 7568 4798 Blue 20
4 PM Sun 80 81 N 28 7603 5900 3130 Blue 17
5 PM Sun 78 78 N 28 6036 3947 1177 Blue 14
6 PM Sun 75 75 N 28 3972 3362 592 Blue 11
7 PM Sun 72 72 N 28 3366 3134 364 Blue 8
8 PM Sun 69 69 N 28 3138 2906 136 Blue 5
9 PM Sun 66 66 N 28 2910 2770 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 64 64 N 28 2421 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 62 62 N 14 1483 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 62 62 N 14 1483 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 61 61 N 14 1483 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 61 61 N 14 1483 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 60 60 N 14 1483 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 59 59 N 14 1483 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 58 58 N 14 1483 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 58 58 N 14 1483 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 58 58 N 14 1483 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 59 59 N 14 1483 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 65 66 N 14 2910 2770 0 Blue 2
10 AM Mon 72 74 N 14 3652 3286 516 Blue 10
11 AM Mon 78 81 N 14 7603 5900 3130 Blue 17
12 Noon Mon 82 86 N 14 8503 7926 5156 Blue 22
1 PM Mon 84 88 N 14 8860 8284 5514 Blue 24
2 PM Mon 84 88 N 14 8860 8284 5514 Blue 24
3 PM Mon 84 87 N 14 8682 8105 5335 Blue 23
4 PM Mon 83 84 N 14 8144 7568 4798 Blue 20
5 PM Mon 81 81 N 13 7603 5900 3130 Blue 17
6 PM Mon 78 78 N 13 6036 3947 1177 Blue 14
7 PM Mon 74 74 N 13 3652 3286 516 Blue 10
8 PM Mon 71 71 N 13 3290 3058 288 Blue 7
9 PM Mon 68 68 N 13 3062 2831 61 Blue 4
10 PM Mon 66 66 N 13 2910 2770 0 Blue 2
11 PM Mon 64 64 N 10 2421 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 64 64 N 10 2421 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 63 63 N 10 1932 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 63 63 N 10 1932 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 62 62 N 10 1483 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 61 61 N 10 1483 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 60 60 N 9 1483 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 60 60 N 9 1483 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 60 60 N 9 1483 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 61 61 N 9 1483 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 67 68 N 9 3062 2831 61 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 74 76 N 9 4555 3438 668 Blue 12
11 AM Tue 80 83 W 17 7964 7388 4618 Blue 19
12 Noon Tue 84 88 W 17 8860 8284 5514 Blue 24
1 PM Tue 86 90 W 17 9225 8640 5870 Blue 26
2 PM Tue 86 90 W 17 9225 8640 5870 Blue 26
3 PM Tue 86 89 W 17 9041 8462 5692 Blue 25
4 PM Tue 85 86 W 17 8503 7926 5156 Blue 22
5 PM Tue 83 83 W 17 7964 7388 4618 Blue 19
6 PM Tue 79 79 W 17 6951 4489 1719 Blue 15
7 PM Tue 75 75 W 17 3972 3362 592 Blue 11
8 PM Tue 72 72 W 17 3366 3134 364 Blue 8
9 PM Tue 68 68 W 17 3062 2831 61 Blue 4
10 PM Tue 66 66 W 17 2910 2770 0 Blue 2
11 PM Tue 64 64 N 5 2421 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 64 64 N 5 2421 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 63 63 N 5 1932 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 62 62 N 5 1483 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 61 61 N 5 1483 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 61 61 N 5 1483 2770 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com