Detailed Predictions for: Saddle Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 2770
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

16 OCT 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 56 56 NE 26 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 58 58 NE 26 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 57 57 NE 26 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 59 59 NE 28 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 63 64 NE 28 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 71 73 NE 28 3961 2770 0 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 76 79 N 21 6686 5981 3211 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 79 83 N 21 8139 6992 4222 Blue 14
1 PM Tue 82 87 N 21 10691 8412 5642 Blue 18
2 PM Tue 82 86 N 15 10249 8064 5294 Blue 17
3 PM Tue 80 83 N 15 8139 6992 4222 Blue 14
4 PM Tue 79 81 N 15 7422 6371 3601 Blue 12
5 PM Tue 77 77 N 10 6205 4633 1863 Blue 8
6 PM Tue 73 73 N 10 3961 2770 0 Blue 4
7 PM Tue 69 69 N 10 1580 2770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 64 64 NE 13 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 62 62 NE 13 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 60 60 NE 13 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 58 58 NE 13 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 58 58 NE 13 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 58 58 NE 13 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 58 58 NE 13 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 57 57 NE 13 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 57 57 NE 13 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 56 56 NE 13 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 58 58 NE 13 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 57 57 NE 13 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 59 59 NE 10 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 62 63 NE 10 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 70 72 NE 10 3169 2770 0 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 74 77 E 5 6205 4633 1863 Blue 8
12 Noon Wed 77 81 E 5 7422 6371 3601 Blue 12
1 PM Wed 80 84 E 5 8491 7353 4583 Blue 15
2 PM Wed 80 84 NW 7 8491 7353 4583 Blue 15
3 PM Wed 78 81 NW 7 7422 6371 3601 Blue 12
4 PM Wed 78 79 NW 7 6686 5981 3211 Blue 10
5 PM Wed 76 76 NW 6 6009 3904 1134 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 73 73 NW 6 3961 2770 0 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 69 69 NW 6 1580 2770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 65 65 NW 6 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 64 64 NW 6 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 62 62 NW 6 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 61 61 NE 7 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 61 61 NE 7 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 61 61 NE 7 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 60 60 NE 7 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 60 60 NE 7 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 60 60 NE 7 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 59 59 NE 10 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 61 61 NE 10 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 60 60 NE 10 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 61 61 NE 10 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 65 66 NE 10 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 72 74 NE 10 4703 2770 0 Blue 5
11 AM Thu 76 79 NE 3 6686 5981 3211 Blue 10
12 Noon Thu 78 82 NE 3 7783 6625 3855 Blue 13
1 PM Thu 81 86 NE 3 10249 8064 5294 Blue 17
2 PM Thu 81 85 NE 3 9228 7711 4941 Blue 16
3 PM Thu 79 82 NE 3 7783 6625 3855 Blue 13
4 PM Thu 78 80 NE 3 7056 6176 3406 Blue 11
5 PM Thu 77 77 NW 6 6205 4633 1863 Blue 8
6 PM Thu 74 74 NW 6 4703 2770 0 Blue 5
7 PM Thu 70 70 NW 6 2183 2770 0 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 66 66 NW 6 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 64 64 NW 6 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 62 62 NW 6 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 61 61 NE 10 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 61 61 NE 10 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 61 61 NE 10 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 60 60 NE 10 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 60 60 NE 10 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 60 60 NE 10 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 59 59 N 12 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 61 61 N 12 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 60 60 N 12 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 62 62 N 12 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 66 67 N 12 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 74 76 N 12 6009 3904 1134 Blue 7
11 AM Fri 78 81 NE 14 7422 6371 3601 Blue 12
12 Noon Fri 81 85 NE 14 9228 7711 4941 Blue 16
1 PM Fri 84 89 NE 14 11522 9977 7207 Blue 20
2 PM Fri 84 88 NE 14 11111 8957 6187 Blue 19
3 PM Fri 82 85 NE 14 9228 7711 4941 Blue 16
4 PM Fri 81 83 NE 14 8139 6992 4222 Blue 14
5 PM Fri 80 80 N 10 7056 6176 3406 Blue 11
6 PM Fri 76 76 N 10 6009 3904 1134 Blue 7
7 PM Fri 72 72 N 10 3169 2770 0 Blue 3
8 PM Fri 68 68 N 10 1279 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 66 66 N 10 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 64 64 N 10 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 63 63 N 10 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 63 63 N 10 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 63 63 N 10 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 62 62 N 10 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 62 62 N 10 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 62 62 N 10 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 61 61 N 14 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 63 63 N 14 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 62 62 N 14 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 63 63 N 14 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 67 68 N 14 1279 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 73 75 N 14 5470 3129 359 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 77 80 NE 16 7056 6176 3406 Blue 11
12 Noon Sat 80 84 NE 16 8491 7353 4583 Blue 15
1 PM Sat 82 86 NE 16 10249 8064 5294 Blue 17
2 PM Sat 82 85 NE 16 9228 7711 4941 Blue 16
3 PM Sat 80 82 NE 16 7783 6625 3855 Blue 13
4 PM Sat 80 81 NE 16 7422 6371 3601 Blue 12
5 PM Sat 78 78 NW 5 6401 5349 2579 Blue 9
6 PM Sat 75 75 NW 5 5470 3129 359 Blue 6
7 PM Sat 71 71 NW 5 2564 2770 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 67 67 NW 5 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 66 66 NW 5 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 64 64 NW 5 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 63 63 NE 9 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 63 63 NE 9 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 63 63 NE 9 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 62 62 NE 9 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 62 62 NE 9 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 62 62 NE 9 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 61 61 N 12 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 63 63 N 12 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 62 62 N 12 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 63 63 N 12 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 66 66 N 12 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 71 73 N 12 3961 2770 0 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 74 77 NE 5 6205 4633 1863 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 76 79 NE 5 6686 5981 3211 Blue 10
1 PM Sun 78 81 NE 5 7422 6371 3601 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 78 81 NE 5 7422 6371 3601 Blue 12
3 PM Sun 77 79 NE 5 6686 5981 3211 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 76 77 NE 5 6205 4633 1863 Blue 8
5 PM Sun 75 75 W 6 5470 3129 359 Blue 6
6 PM Sun 72 72 W 6 3169 2770 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sun 69 69 W 6 1580 2770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 66 66 W 6 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 65 65 W 6 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 63 63 W 6 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 63 63 N 5 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 63 63 N 5 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 62 62 N 5 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 62 62 N 5 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 62 62 N 5 1201 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 61 61 N 5 1201 2770 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com