Detailed Predictions for: Saddle Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 2770
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

16 FEB 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sat 40 40 NW 8 801 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 40 40 NW 8 801 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 41 41 NW 8 801 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 41 41 NW 8 801 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 43 43 NW 8 1173 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 48 49 NW 8 3945 3248 478 White 4
10 AM Sat 51 53 W 13 4808 4808 2038 White 8
11 AM Sat 53 56 W 13 5441 5441 2671 White 11
12 Noon Sat 54 57 W 13 5652 5652 2882 White 12
1 PM Sat 55 58 W 13 5862 5862 3092 White 13
2 PM Sat 54 56 W 13 5441 5441 2671 White 11
3 PM Sat 55 56 W 13 5441 5441 2671 White 11
4 PM Sat 54 54 W 13 5020 5020 2250 White 9
5 PM Sat 53 53 W 13 4808 4808 2038 White 8
6 PM Sat 50 50 W 13 4163 4163 1393 White 5
7 PM Sat 47 47 W 13 3514 2770 0 White 2
8 PM Sat 46 46 W 13 3267 2770 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sat 44 44 W 13 1903 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 44 44 NW 10 1903 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 43 43 NW 10 1173 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 43 43 NW 10 1173 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 42 42 NW 14 801 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 41 41 NW 14 801 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 40 40 NW 14 801 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 40 40 NW 10 801 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 40 40 NW 10 801 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 40 40 NW 10 801 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 41 41 NW 10 801 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 42 42 NW 10 801 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 46 46 NW 10 3267 2770 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 48 48 W 15 3729 2770 0 White 3
11 AM Sun 49 50 W 15 4163 4163 1393 White 5
12 Noon Sun 50 51 W 15 4379 4379 1609 White 6
1 PM Sun 51 52 W 15 4594 4594 1824 White 7
2 PM Sun 51 51 W 15 4379 4379 1609 White 6
3 PM Sun 51 51 W 15 4379 4379 1609 White 6
4 PM Sun 50 50 NW 13 4163 4163 1393 White 5
5 PM Sun 49 49 NW 13 3945 3248 478 White 4
6 PM Sun 46 46 NW 13 3267 2770 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 44 44 NW 13 1903 2770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 42 42 NW 13 801 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 41 41 NW 13 801 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 40 40 N 20 801 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 40 40 N 20 801 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 40 40 N 20 801 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 39 39 N 20 801 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 38 38 N 20 801 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 37 37 N 20 801 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 37 37 N 20 801 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 37 37 N 20 801 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 38 38 N 20 801 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 38 38 N 20 801 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 40 40 N 20 801 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 46 47 N 20 3514 2770 0 White 2
10 AM Mon 50 52 NW 7 4594 4594 1824 White 7
11 AM Mon 51 54 NW 7 5020 5020 2250 White 9
12 Noon Mon 53 56 NW 7 5441 5441 2671 White 11
1 PM Mon 54 57 NW 7 5652 5652 2882 White 12
2 PM Mon 53 55 NW 7 5231 5231 2461 White 10
3 PM Mon 53 54 NW 7 5020 5020 2250 White 9
4 PM Mon 52 52 NW 21 4594 4594 1824 White 7
5 PM Mon 51 51 NW 21 4379 4379 1609 White 6
6 PM Mon 48 48 NW 21 3729 2770 0 White 3
7 PM Mon 45 45 NW 21 2594 2770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 43 43 NW 21 1173 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 41 41 NW 21 801 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 41 41 N 15 801 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 39 39 N 15 801 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 40 40 N 15 801 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 39 39 N 15 801 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 37 37 N 15 801 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 37 37 N 15 801 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 36 36 N 16 801 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 36 36 N 16 801 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 37 37 N 16 801 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 37 37 N 16 801 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 40 40 N 16 801 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 46 47 N 16 3514 2770 0 White 2
10 AM Tue 49 51 SW 15 4379 4379 1609 White 6
11 AM Tue 51 54 SW 15 5020 5020 2250 White 9
12 Noon Tue 53 57 SW 15 5652 5652 2882 White 12
1 PM Tue 54 57 SW 15 5652 5652 2882 White 12
2 PM Tue 53 56 SW 15 5441 5441 2671 White 11
3 PM Tue 54 55 SW 15 5231 5231 2461 White 10
4 PM Tue 53 53 SW 15 4808 4808 2038 White 8
5 PM Tue 51 51 SW 15 4379 4379 1609 White 6
6 PM Tue 48 48 SW 15 3729 2770 0 White 3
7 PM Tue 45 45 SW 15 2594 2770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 43 43 SW 15 1173 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 42 42 SW 15 801 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 41 41 N 9 801 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 40 40 N 9 801 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 41 41 N 9 801 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 40 40 N 9 801 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 38 38 N 9 801 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 38 38 N 9 801 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 37 37 N 9 801 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 37 37 N 9 801 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 38 38 N 9 801 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 38 38 N 9 801 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 41 41 N 9 801 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 47 48 N 9 3729 2770 0 White 3
10 AM Wed 50 52 SW 15 4594 4594 1824 White 7
11 AM Wed 51 53 SW 15 4808 4808 2038 White 8
12 Noon Wed 53 56 SW 15 5441 5441 2671 White 11
1 PM Wed 54 56 SW 15 5441 5441 2671 White 11
2 PM Wed 53 55 SW 15 5231 5231 2461 White 10
3 PM Wed 54 55 SW 15 5231 5231 2461 White 10
4 PM Wed 53 53 SW 17 4808 4808 2038 White 8
5 PM Wed 52 52 SW 17 4594 4594 1824 White 7
6 PM Wed 49 49 SW 17 3945 3248 478 White 4
7 PM Wed 46 46 SW 17 3267 2770 0 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 45 45 SW 17 2594 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 43 43 SW 17 1173 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 43 43 S 8 1173 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 42 42 S 8 801 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 42 42 S 8 801 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 41 41 S 8 801 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 40 40 S 8 801 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 39 39 S 8 801 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 39 39 W 13 801 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 39 39 W 13 801 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 40 40 W 13 801 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 40 40 W 13 801 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 42 42 W 13 801 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 47 47 W 13 3514 2770 0 White 2
10 AM Thu 49 50 W 17 4163 4163 1393 White 5
11 AM Thu 51 53 W 17 4808 4808 2038 White 8
12 Noon Thu 52 54 W 17 5020 5020 2250 White 9
1 PM Thu 53 55 W 17 5231 5231 2461 White 10
2 PM Thu 53 54 W 17 5020 5020 2250 White 9
3 PM Thu 53 54 W 17 5020 5020 2250 White 9
4 PM Thu 52 52 W 22 4594 4594 1824 White 7
5 PM Thu 51 51 W 22 4379 4379 1609 White 6
6 PM Thu 48 48 W 22 3729 2770 0 White 3
7 PM Thu 46 46 W 22 3267 2770 0 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 44 44 W 22 1903 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 43 43 W 22 1173 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 42 42 NW 10 801 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 42 42 NW 10 801 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 42 42 NW 10 801 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 41 41 NW 10 801 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 40 40 NW 10 801 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 39 39 NW 10 801 2770 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com