Detailed Predictions for: Saddle Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 2770
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

17 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 60 60 NW 7 2614 2770 0 White 0
5 AM Fri 58 58 NW 7 1860 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 56 56 NW 7 1045 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 55 55 W 5 628 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 55 55 W 5 628 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 56 56 W 5 1045 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 60 61 W 6 2835 2770 0 White 1
11 AM Fri 64 66 W 6 3933 3831 1061 White 6
12 Noon Fri 68 70 W 6 4806 4806 2036 White 10
1 PM Fri 72 73 W 6 5447 5447 2677 White 13
2 PM Fri 74 75 W 6 5871 5871 3101 White 15
3 PM Fri 74 74 W 6 5659 5659 2889 White 14
4 PM Fri 73 73 W 9 5447 5447 2677 White 13
5 PM Fri 71 71 W 9 5021 5021 2251 White 11
6 PM Fri 69 69 W 9 4588 4588 1818 White 9
7 PM Fri 68 68 W 9 4370 4370 1600 White 8
8 PM Fri 68 68 W 9 4370 4370 1600 White 8
9 PM Fri 68 68 W 9 4370 4370 1600 White 8
10 PM Fri 68 68 NE 16 4370 4370 1600 White 8
11 PM Fri 66 66 NE 16 3933 3831 1061 White 6
12 Midnight Sat 63 63 NE 16 3275 2770 0 White 3
1 AM Sat 61 61 NE 16 2835 2770 0 White 1
2 AM Sat 59 59 NE 16 2258 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 58 58 NE 16 1860 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 56 56 NE 18 1045 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 54 54 NE 18 427 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 52 52 NE 18 427 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 51 51 NE 18 427 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 53 53 NE 18 427 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 56 57 NE 18 1455 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 60 62 N 13 3055 2770 0 White 2
11 AM Sat 65 67 N 13 4152 4152 1382 White 7
12 Noon Sat 70 73 N 13 5447 5447 2677 White 13
1 PM Sat 74 76 N 13 6083 6083 3313 White 16
2 PM Sat 77 78 N 13 6505 6505 3735 White 18
3 PM Sat 79 79 N 13 6717 6717 3947 White 19
4 PM Sat 79 79 N 7 6717 6717 3947 White 19
5 PM Sat 78 78 N 7 6505 6505 3735 White 18
6 PM Sat 76 76 N 7 6083 6083 3313 White 16
7 PM Sat 73 73 N 7 5447 5447 2677 White 13
8 PM Sat 70 70 N 7 4806 4806 2036 White 10
9 PM Sat 67 67 N 7 4152 4152 1382 White 7
10 PM Sat 65 65 NE 8 3714 3440 670 White 5
11 PM Sat 63 63 NE 8 3275 2770 0 White 3
12 Midnight Sun 61 61 NE 8 2835 2770 0 White 1
1 AM Sun 59 59 NE 8 2258 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 57 57 NE 8 1455 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 56 56 NE 8 1045 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 53 53 N 9 427 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 51 51 N 9 427 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 50 50 N 9 427 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 51 51 N 9 427 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 54 54 N 9 427 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 60 61 N 9 2835 2770 0 White 1
10 AM Sun 66 68 W 8 4370 4370 1600 White 8
11 AM Sun 71 73 W 8 5447 5447 2677 White 13
12 Noon Sun 76 78 W 8 6505 6505 3735 White 18
1 PM Sun 78 80 W 8 6928 6928 4158 White 20
2 PM Sun 79 80 W 8 6928 6928 4158 White 20
3 PM Sun 79 79 W 8 6717 6717 3947 White 19
4 PM Sun 78 78 W 13 6505 6505 3735 White 18
5 PM Sun 78 78 W 13 6505 6505 3735 White 18
6 PM Sun 79 79 W 13 6717 6717 3947 White 19
7 PM Sun 78 78 W 13 6505 6505 3735 White 18
8 PM Sun 76 76 W 13 6083 6083 3313 White 16
9 PM Sun 74 74 W 13 5659 5659 2889 White 14
10 PM Sun 71 71 N 5 5021 5021 2251 White 11
11 PM Sun 69 69 N 5 4588 4588 1818 White 9
12 Midnight Mon 66 66 N 5 3933 3831 1061 White 6
1 AM Mon 64 64 N 5 3495 3043 273 White 4
2 AM Mon 61 61 N 5 2835 2770 0 White 1
3 AM Mon 59 59 N 5 2258 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 57 57 N 5 1455 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 56 56 N 5 1045 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 57 57 N 5 1455 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 59 59 N 5 2258 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 64 64 N 5 3495 3043 273 White 4
9 AM Mon 69 70 N 5 4806 4806 2036 White 10
10 AM Mon 73 74 SW 14 5659 5659 2889 White 14
11 AM Mon 76 78 SW 14 6505 6505 3735 White 18
12 Noon Mon 78 80 SW 14 6928 6928 4158 White 20
1 PM Mon 78 80 SW 14 6928 6928 4158 White 20
2 PM Mon 77 78 SW 14 6505 6505 3735 White 18
3 PM Mon 76 76 SW 14 6083 6083 3313 White 16
4 PM Mon 75 75 SW 14 5871 5871 3101 White 15
5 PM Mon 75 75 SW 14 5871 5871 3101 White 15
6 PM Mon 75 75 SW 14 5871 5871 3101 White 15
7 PM Mon 76 76 SW 14 6083 6083 3313 White 16
8 PM Mon 76 76 SW 14 6083 6083 3313 White 16
9 PM Mon 76 76 SW 14 6083 6083 3313 White 16
10 PM Mon 75 75 N 5 5871 5871 3101 White 15
11 PM Mon 72 72 N 5 5234 5234 2464 White 12
12 Midnight Tue 68 68 N 5 4370 4370 1600 White 8
1 AM Tue 65 65 N 5 3714 3440 670 White 5
2 AM Tue 61 61 N 5 2835 2770 0 White 1
3 AM Tue 59 59 N 5 2258 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 59 59 N 6 2258 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 60 60 N 6 2614 2770 0 White 0
6 AM Tue 62 62 N 6 3055 2770 0 White 2
7 AM Tue 64 64 N 6 3495 3043 273 White 4
8 AM Tue 67 67 N 6 4152 4152 1382 White 7
9 AM Tue 70 71 N 6 5021 5021 2251 White 11
10 AM Tue 73 74 NW 15 5659 5659 2889 White 14
11 AM Tue 76 78 NW 15 6505 6505 3735 White 18
12 Noon Tue 78 80 NW 15 6928 6928 4158 White 20
1 PM Tue 80 82 NW 15 7347 7347 4577 White 22
2 PM Tue 82 83 NW 15 7556 7556 4786 White 23
3 PM Tue 83 83 NW 15 7556 7556 4786 White 23
4 PM Tue 83 83 NW 15 7556 7556 4786 White 23
5 PM Tue 83 83 NW 15 7556 7556 4786 White 23
6 PM Tue 81 81 NW 15 7138 7138 4368 White 21
7 PM Tue 79 79 NW 15 6717 6717 3947 White 19
8 PM Tue 76 76 NW 15 6083 6083 3313 White 16
9 PM Tue 73 73 NW 15 5447 5447 2677 White 13
10 PM Tue 70 70 N 7 4806 4806 2036 White 10
11 PM Tue 67 67 N 7 4152 4152 1382 White 7
12 Midnight Wed 65 65 N 7 3714 3440 670 White 5
1 AM Wed 63 63 N 7 3275 2770 0 White 3
2 AM Wed 62 62 N 7 3055 2770 0 White 2
3 AM Wed 62 62 N 7 3055 2770 0 White 2
4 AM Wed 63 63 N 9 3275 2770 0 White 3
5 AM Wed 64 64 N 9 3495 3043 273 White 4
6 AM Wed 66 66 N 9 3933 3831 1061 White 6
7 AM Wed 68 68 N 9 4370 4370 1600 White 8
8 AM Wed 71 71 N 9 5021 5021 2251 White 11
9 AM Wed 74 75 N 9 5871 5871 3101 White 15
10 AM Wed 77 79 NW 17 6717 6717 3947 White 19
11 AM Wed 80 82 NW 17 7347 7347 4577 White 22
12 Noon Wed 82 84 NW 17 7765 7765 4995 White 24
1 PM Wed 85 87 NW 17 8388 8388 5618 White 27
2 PM Wed 87 88 NW 17 8595 8595 5825 White 28
3 PM Wed 88 88 NW 17 8595 8595 5825 White 28
4 PM Wed 88 88 NW 18 8595 8595 5825 White 28
5 PM Wed 87 87 NW 18 8388 8388 5618 White 27
6 PM Wed 85 85 NW 18 7972 7972 5202 White 25
7 PM Wed 82 82 NW 18 7347 7347 4577 White 22
8 PM Wed 79 79 NW 18 6717 6717 3947 White 19
9 PM Wed 75 75 NW 18 5871 5871 3101 White 15
10 PM Wed 71 71 N 9 5021 5021 2251 White 11
11 PM Wed 68 68 N 9 4370 4370 1600 White 8
12 Midnight Thu 65 65 N 9 3714 3440 670 White 5
1 AM Thu 63 63 N 9 3275 2770 0 White 3
2 AM Thu 62 62 N 9 3055 2770 0 White 2
3 AM Thu 62 62 N 9 3055 2770 0 White 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com