Detailed Predictions for: Saddle Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 2770
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 53 53 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 54 54 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 57 57 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 60 61 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 63 65 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 65 69 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 67 73 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 68 75 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 69 76 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 70 76 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 70 75 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 69 72 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 68 69 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 64 64 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 60 60 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 58 58 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 57 57 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 55 55 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 54 54 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 53 53 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 52 52 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 51 51 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 50 50 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 50 50 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 49 49 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 50 50 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 53 53 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 56 56 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 59 59 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 61 61 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 64 69 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 65 71 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 66 72 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 67 73 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 67 72 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 66 69 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 65 66 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 62 62 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 59 59 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 57 57 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 56 56 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 55 55 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 54 54 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 53 53 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 53 53 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 52 52 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 51 51 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 51 51 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 50 50 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 51 51 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 54 54 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 57 58 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 59 61 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 61 65 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 63 68 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 64 70 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 65 72 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 66 72 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 66 71 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 65 68 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 64 65 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 61 61 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 58 58 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 56 56 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 54 54 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 53 53 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 53 53 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 52 52 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 51 51 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 50 50 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 49 49 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 49 49 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 48 48 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 49 49 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 52 52 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 55 56 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 58 60 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 60 64 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 63 68 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 64 70 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 65 71 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 66 72 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 66 71 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 65 68 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 64 65 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 61 61 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 58 58 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 56 56 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 55 55 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 54 54 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 53 53 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 52 52 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 52 52 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 51 51 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 50 50 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 50 50 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 49 49 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 50 50 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 53 53 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 56 57 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 59 61 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 61 64 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 63 68 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 64 70 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 65 71 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 66 72 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 66 70 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 65 68 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 64 65 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 61 61 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 58 58 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 56 56 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 54 54 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 53 53 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 52 52 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 51 51 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 50 50 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 49 49 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 49 49 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 48 48 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 48 48 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 50 50 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 53 53 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 56 56 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 59 61 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 61 64 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 62 65 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 64 68 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 65 69 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 66 70 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 66 69 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 65 67 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 64 65 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 61 61 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 58 58 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 56 56 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 54 54 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 53 53 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 52 52 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 51 51 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 50 50 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 49 49 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 49 49 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 48 48 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com