NEWS:

March 24, 2013: This site is running the code developed by Tad Hurst.

Why not submit your favorite site? I need site name, lat, long, LZ and launch altitudes and the zipcode.

- Alan

Also check out the Santa Barbara Regional Atmospheric Soaring Prediction BLIPMAP Forecast - produced by Don Taber


NEW!
Check out the WINDGRAMS Windgrams are available for most Santa Barbara sites from the more accurate RASP data


Sounding

Station:

KVBG (alt)

Date/Time:

21 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu
Site
Name
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Bates Beach SW 9 78 SW 9 1056 W 9 1328 W 9 1748 W 9 1557 SW 8 1434
Pine Mountain SW 6 7211 N 9 8258 N 13 8877 N 10 9288 NW 16 9697 N 15 9492
Eliminator Skyport W 8 1684 SW 12 5937 NW 14 8936 NW 14 10852 NW 15 8936 NW 17 8172
Ojai S 9 4175 S 10 7508 N 10 9578 N 8 10192 W 10 10598 N 9 10396
Dunlap SW 7 6964 SW 7 6127 E 5 8458 W 6 10523 W 6 10727 E 3 10523
Calabasas S 6 3903 SW 10 6498 SW 14 7636 W 13 8058 W 14 8500 S 12 8058
Saddle Peak SW 6 2631 W 13 5219 SW 16 6247 W 15 6571 W 15 7547 S 13 7107
Garlock SW 18 8248 SW 10 9286 SW 9 9900 SW 12 10905 SW 13 11105 W 15 10706
Blackhawk N 7 7140 W 9 8616 W 9 9441 W 13 10052 SW 16 10459 SW 16 9645
La Cumbre Peak W 8 3797 W 10 5888 NW 14 10700 NW 14 11104 NW 15 11104 NW 17 10902
Slick Rock W 7 5259 W 8 7489 W 6 7907 W 6 8738 W 6 9358 W 5 8946
Horseshoe SE 17 5134 N 9 5563 NW 12 5775 N 10 6619 NW 10 7245 NW 10 6619
Malibu - Castro Peak SW 7 343 W 12 1359 SW 10 5256 W 10 5739 W 10 5904 SW 10 5739
Cayucos W 9 1244 W 14 1213 NW 16 1275 NW 18 1275 NW 18 1462 W 18 1424

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com