NEWS:

March 24, 2013: This site is running the code developed by Tad Hurst.

Why not submit your favorite site? I need site name, lat, long, LZ and launch altitudes and the zipcode.

- Alan

Also check out the Santa Barbara Regional Atmospheric Soaring Prediction BLIPMAP Forecast - produced by Don Taber


NEW!
Check out the WINDGRAMS Windgrams are available for most Santa Barbara sites from the more accurate RASP data


Sounding

Station:

KVBG (alt)

Date/Time:

26 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
Site
Name
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Bates Beach W 17 0 NW 9 0 W 12 278 SW 9 278 SW 9 278 W 13 278
Pine Mountain SW 20 0 N 20 1805 N 10 5799 SW 8 7749 W 10 6181 W 12 7749
Eliminator Skyport NW 21 1224 NW 10 4178 NW 13 5055 SW 8 5377 W 8 5216 W 9 5216
Ojai SW 17 1532 N 13 3471 N 8 6045 S 9 7819 W 9 7407 W 10 7407
Dunlap S 14 1579 W 6 2340 W 7 4308 NE 7 7107 E 6 7823 W 6 7616
Calabasas SW 14 2967 SW 8 5397 W 15 6118 SW 10 7080 SW 10 7080 SW 9 6912
Saddle Peak W 15 1942 SW 8 4161 W 16 5050 SW 12 5848 SW 10 5686 SW 10 5848
Garlock SW 30 2262 W 22 4003 W 16 7295 SW 17 8318 SW 18 8725 SW 18 8114
Blackhawk SW 38 1730 W 25 2605 W 18 7769 SW 17 10434 W 13 10434 W 12 10792
La Cumbre Peak N 24 1030 N 13 3543 NW 12 4817 SW 8 6485 W 9 5670 N 9 5670
Slick Rock SW 7 1203 W 6 1797 W 6 4103 W 5 7225 W 5 7839 W 5 7019
Horseshoe W 38 0 N 20 1796 N 18 5434 S 21 5434 SE 17 7384 S 23 7007
Malibu - Castro Peak W 16 0 NW 9 2353 W 17 3746 SW 12 4457 SW 10 4283 SW 10 4283
Cayucos W 17 1642 W 12 3761 NW 13 5008 W 13 5421 W 16 5008 W 12 5008

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com