NEWS:

March 24, 2013: This site is running the code developed by Tad Hurst.

Why not submit your favorite site? I need site name, lat, long, LZ and launch altitudes and the zipcode.

- Alan

Also check out the Santa Barbara Regional Atmospheric Soaring Prediction BLIPMAP Forecast - produced by Don Taber


NEW!
Check out the WINDGRAMS Windgrams are available for most Santa Barbara sites from the more accurate RASP data


Sounding

Station:

KVBG (alt)

Date/Time:

19 AUG 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
Site
Name
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Bates Beach SW 6 0 SW 8 0 SW 9 0 SW 8 269 SW 6 269 W 6 269
Pine Mountain N 12 9564 SW 8 7630 W 9 8211 W 13 8211 NW 15 8693 NW 21 7630
Eliminator Skyport N 8 5046 SW 7 0 SW 8 0 W 10 158 W 13 0 W 15 0
Ojai N 9 7540 SW 10 5900 SW 10 5900 SW 10 6228 SW 12 5900 SW 14 5900
Dunlap SW 8 6699 W 9 6374 SW 8 5258 SW 8 5577 W 7 5258 W 8 5258
Calabasas SW 5 3542 S 8 1246 SW 9 1246 SW 14 1450 SW 8 2502 SW 9 1450
Saddle Peak SW 6 0 S 7 0 SW 9 0 SW 17 0 SW 12 0 SW 12 0
Garlock SW 13 9709 SW 21 8513 SW 20 7313 SW 20 7313 SW 21 7313 W 22 7313
Blackhawk W 8 9546 SW 23 8533 SW 12 6674 SW 17 5990 SW 16 5619 W 17 7323
La Cumbre Peak N 10 6548 W 8 4489 SW 7 4489 W 10 4816 W 14 4816 W 16 4816
Slick Rock SW 9 6089 W 8 6089 W 8 4979 W 7 4979 W 7 4979 W 8 4979
Horseshoe SE 15 8568 SW 14 8568 SW 10 7207 S 21 7565 SE 16 7565 SE 16 7207
Malibu - Castro Peak W 6 0 S 6 0 SW 8 0 SW 12 0 SW 9 0 SW 10 0
Cayucos W 12 882 SW 12 839 W 10 903 W 15 925 W 7 935 W 8 935

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com