Feb 16, 2021
- Problems getting data from National Weather Service began on Feb 11 impacting operation of the Soaring Predictor software.
The service seems to be working again at about 75% as of this morning, Feb 16.

Backup data is being sourced from however, their free service is limited to 3 days. If you see a three day forecast for your favorite site, thank the WeatherAPI folks. The full 5-day forecasts are receiving input data from the National Weather service (thank them too :-).

RASP and Windgrams should not be impacted

See the southern California RASP Model The detail grid covers the San Diego sites, but the 4km grid covers most of southern California.

Instructional video on reading the RASP Model

Check out the WINDGRAMS Windgrams are available for most Santa Barbara sites from the more accurate RASP data



KVBG (alt)


15 AUG 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Wind Above
Wind Above
Wind Above
Wind Above
Wind Above
Wind Above
Bates Beach SSW 8 1619 SSW 8 1953 SSW 8 1619
Pine Mountain SSW 8 14244 SSW 8 17517 SSW 8 14244
Eliminator Skyport SSW 6 2629 SW 10 2629 WSW 11 2629 W 12 2629 WSW 10 1885 SW 10 1128
Ojai S 9 8024 SSW 11 5830 SSW 11 3756 SW 10 2110 SSW 10 1822 S 11 1159
Dunlap W 5 1909 W 5 1909 ENE 5 1408 ENE 5 1253 WSW 6 1620 ENE 5 1620
Calabasas SW 8 3994 SW 13 4177 WSW 14 4177 SW 14 3576 SW 13 3211 SSW 14 2528
Saddle Peak SW 7 9706 SW 7 9706 SW 8 9706
Garlock W 11 11406 E 10 11406 SW 12 11221 SW 13 11221 SSW 12 11221 SSW 16 10665
Blackhawk NE 10 9031 E 11 8843 SSW 8 8843 SW 12 8654 ENE 9 7855 E 9 1637
La Cumbre Peak ENE 6 5985 W 11 3600 WNW 12 3600 W 14 3600 WNW 12 2206 SW 12 1867
Slick Rock WSW 7 15987 WSW 7 16562 WSW 7 16753
Horseshoe ESE 10 6576 E 10 6576 S 11 6384 SSW 11 6576 S 10 6767 S 12 6576
Malibu - Castro Peak SW 7 1967 SW 7 1967 SW 8 1967
Cayucos W 10 1099 W 9 1227 WSW 9 1154 W 12 1099 W 12 1099 W 11 934

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse