NEWS:

March 24, 2013: This site is running the code developed by Tad Hurst.

Why not submit your favorite site? I need site name, lat, long, LZ and launch altitudes and the zipcode.

- Alan

Also check out the Santa Barbara Regional Atmospheric Soaring Prediction BLIPMAP Forecast - produced by Don Taber


NEW!
Check out the WINDGRAMS Windgrams are available for most Santa Barbara sites from the more accurate RASP data


Sounding

Station:

KVBG (alt)

Date/Time:

19 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
error getting data for coordinate: 36.765278,-119.098444 error getting data for coordinate: 35.418766,-117.850633 error getting data for coordinate: 36.184800,-118.727000
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
Site
Name
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Bates Beach SW 7 0 N 9 0 NW 5 0 NW 6 0 W 7 0 SW 5 0
Pine Mountain N 6 2435 N 20 1775 N 10 4890 N 8 6237 NW 8 6920 NW 8 4890
Eliminator Skyport W 9 550 N 23 2373 NW 12 2319 NW 7 6545 NW 10 6545 NW 5 2373
Ojai N 6 1545 N 13 2351 N 7 5605 NW 6 7001 NW 6 6498 NW 6 5002
Calabasas N 14 3816 NE 10 4274 NW 12 7699 NW 10 9370 W 9 9370 S 9 5311
Saddle Peak N 13 2706 NW 12 3245 NW 15 6802 NW 14 8581 W 14 8581 SW 12 4931
Blackhawk W 5 0 NW 10 2087 E 7 4672 E 5 5443 NE 5 5723 SW 12 5443
Horseshoe NW 10 0 W 13 1767 SE 6 3578 SW 10 6872 W 10 6872 W 17 5006
Malibu - Castro Peak N 12 160 NW 12 907 N 12 2115 N 10 3877 NE 7 3349 S 7 1675
Cayucos NW 12 844 N 14 1725 NW 12 2545 NW 9 2897 NW 9 2897 NW 12 1872

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com