NEWS:

March 24, 2013: This site is running the code developed by Tad Hurst.

Why not submit your favorite site? I need site name, lat, long, LZ and launch altitudes and the zipcode.

- Alan

Also check out the Santa Barbara Regional Atmospheric Soaring Prediction BLIPMAP Forecast - produced by Don Taber


NEW!
Check out the WINDGRAMS Windgrams are available for most Santa Barbara sites from the more accurate RASP data


Sounding

Station:

KVBG (alt)

Date/Time:

25 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Site
Name
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Bates Beach W 10 0 W 14 0 NE 7 0 SW 9 0 SW 10 0 SW 9 0
Pine Mountain NE 10 5853 NE 9 6309 NE 14 8247 E 7 6309 NW 6 8900 NW 7 8247
Eliminator Skyport SW 9 6627 W 10 5743 E 8 7764 W 9 9677 W 9 10811 W 10 9943
Ojai NE 12 6490 N 9 6773 NE 12 7334 NE 5 7334 N 6 8160 W 8 8160
Dunlap W 7 4633 NE 10 6063 NE 7 6637 NE 7 6920 W 6 6920 W 6 6637
Calabasas NE 18 8809 NE 24 9361 N 18 9635 S 13 9361 S 14 10443 S 15 10974
Saddle Peak NE 20 8064 NE 25 8339 NE 18 8612 SW 16 8612 SW 17 9949 S 15 10211
Garlock N 18 4326 NE 22 4857 NE 12 5732 NE 9 6018 N 8 6584 NW 8 6864
Blackhawk N 12 2911 NW 9 3771 NE 9 4948 NE 10 5237 NE 10 5809 N 12 6372
Slick Rock E 8 4050 NE 8 4879 NE 8 5458 NE 7 5170 N 7 5744 N 6 5744
Horseshoe NW 17 1518 NW 20 2117 NW 13 3290 NW 8 3865 SE 9 6564 NW 8 7012
Malibu - Castro Peak NE 24 6524 NE 29 6524 NE 23 6782 SW 12 6782 W 13 7903 NE 12 8184
Cayucos NW 14 2015 NW 13 367 NE 9 724 W 14 202 NW 15 724 NW 14 724

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com