March 24, 2013: This site is running the code developed by Tad Hurst.

Why not submit your favorite site? I need site name, lat, long, LZ and launch altitudes and the zipcode.

- Alan

Also check out the Santa Barbara Regional Atmospheric Soaring Prediction BLIPMAP Forecast - produced by Don Taber

Check out the WINDGRAMS Windgrams are available for most Santa Barbara sites from the more accurate RASP data



KVBG (alt)


19 MAR 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Wind Above
Wind Above
Wind Above
Wind Above
Wind Above
Wind Above
Bates Beach SE 8 278 SE 6 0 E 8 0 W 14 0 SW 10 0 W 14 278
Pine Mountain E 13 4975 S 13 4406 S 13 4406 SW 18 244 W 10 488 N 17 244
Eliminator Skyport SE 7 2164 SE 10 1788 SE 9 1788 W 15 0 W 10 574 NW 17 2164
Ojai E 13 6151 SE 9 3018 S 7 2444 S 13 1940 SW 9 2192 N 10 2444
Dunlap SW 8 5119 SW 13 2326 SW 18 2820 SW 18 2072 W 3 1047 NW 6 815
Calabasas NE 6 5462 NE 7 4488 SE 10 3994 S 17 3129 SW 13 3598 W 15 3773
Saddle Peak SW 6 4183 NE 8 3451 SE 8 2709 S 20 2534 SW 14 2957 W 18 2957
Garlock E 9 3859 S 13 2284 SW 16 2284 SW 23 1530 W 14 2766 W 10 1783
Blackhawk E 10 4565 SW 14 5526 SW 22 5526 S 41 1958 SW 18 4565 W 22 4197
Slick Rock W 6 3076 SW 10 1756 SW 16 1756 SW 20 998 NW 6 282 NW 10 282
Horseshoe SE 12 3117 W 14 3117 W 31 3532 SW 32 3013 W 37 3387 W 30 2367
Malibu - Castro Peak E 7 0 E 8 0 SE 10 0 S 20 0 SW 10 0 W 14 0
Cayucos SW 6 2547 SE 15 676 SE 17 676 S 16 353 W 16 838 NW 18 1160

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse