NEWS:

March 24, 2013: This site is running the code developed by Tad Hurst.

Why not submit your favorite site? I need site name, lat, long, LZ and launch altitudes and the zipcode.

- Alan

Also check out the Santa Barbara Regional Atmospheric Soaring Prediction BLIPMAP Forecast - produced by Don Taber


NEW!
Check out the WINDGRAMS Windgrams are available for most Santa Barbara sites from the more accurate RASP data


Sounding

Station:

KVBG (alt)

Date/Time:

27 MAY 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
Site
Name
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Bates Beach W 16 0 W 13 0 SW 9 0 W 14 0 SW 12 0 W 18 0
Pine Mountain N 14 4620 NE 10 6616 NE 12 8381 SW 9 4620 W 9 2739 NW 12 4053
Eliminator Skyport N 22 4013 W 13 4698 NE 9 5198 SW 10 2960 W 10 1579 W 14 3362
Ojai N 9 4873 NE 7 6393 N 9 6945 SW 12 4373 SW 12 2395 NW 13 4122
Dunlap SW 7 4263 W 8 7081 W 6 9111 SW 9 6528 SW 10 3755 W 8 4515
Calabasas W 14 5614 SW 10 6777 SW 9 7263 SW 13 5070 SW 10 4380 W 13 5070
Saddle Peak W 14 5007 SW 10 6230 W 10 6472 SW 13 4000 SW 9 3296 W 15 4328
Garlock SW 15 5701 W 10 7218 SW 14 9807 SW 26 7218 SW 28 4945 W 18 5191
Blackhawk W 8 4458 W 8 9272 W 10 13972 SW 25 9272 SW 31 5398 SW 21 5211
Slick Rock SW 6 2658 W 9 6138 E 5 6942 W 8 5494 W 7 2914 W 6 3168
Horseshoe N 18 2401 NW 13 7323 W 9 7971 W 18 9198 W 24 4741 NW 12 4741
Malibu - Castro Peak W 14 2155 W 12 3559 W 10 3833 SW 13 668 SW 7 0 W 15 1093
Cayucos NW 16 3286 NW 17 4004 SW 12 4004 W 18 1603 W 20 1474 NW 18 2248

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com