NEWS:

March 24, 2013: This site is running the code developed by Tad Hurst.

Why not submit your favorite site? I need site name, lat, long, LZ and launch altitudes and the zipcode.

- Alan

Also check out the Santa Barbara Regional Atmospheric Soaring Prediction BLIPMAP Forecast - produced by Don Taber


NEW!
Check out the WINDGRAMS Windgrams are available for most Santa Barbara sites from the more accurate RASP data


Sounding

Station:

KVBG (alt)

Date/Time:

16 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
Site
Name
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Bates Beach W 8 469 W 9 416 SW 8 949 SW 10 469 W 8 658 NW 9 469
Pine Mountain S 12 7474 SW 10 7474 W 10 2691 N 15 3535 NW 9 5125 N 12 3535
Eliminator Skyport W 12 2260 W 14 2118 W 12 680 NW 15 1374 W 10 1833 NW 8 500
Ojai S 12 6569 SW 10 6569 SW 9 3928 NW 12 4524 SW 8 5706 N 10 5091
Dunlap SW 8 4710 SW 9 5222 SW 8 4115 N 7 4710 SW 7 5625 SW 8 5625
Calabasas S 9 7335 SW 8 6164 SW 9 1574 SW 13 1753 SW 12 3261 S 12 1930
Saddle Peak S 8 4019 SW 8 2889 SW 10 155 SW 15 334 SW 15 1046 S 14 690
Garlock SW 18 7273 W 17 7273 W 21 6783 W 13 6783 W 9 7749 SW 17 7273
Blackhawk S 21 8757 SW 20 8757 SW 31 8757 W 23 7883 E 15 8757 SW 22 8325
La Cumbre Peak W 10 4494 W 13 4494 W 10 1058 NW 15 1202 NW 10 1346 NW 8 1058
Slick Rock W 8 4459 W 9 4659 SW 9 3988 NW 7 3390 N 6 5266 W 8 5056
Horseshoe W 25 7710 W 17 7710 W 12 7710 E 18 5996 S 13 6431 SE 16 6431
Malibu - Castro Peak S 8 1146 SW 7 606 SW 8 0 SW 12 0 SW 10 144 SE 9 0
Cayucos W 15 1457 W 14 1141 NW 15 1579 NW 16 1579 NW 12 1819 W 10 1696

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com