Detailed Predictions for: Slick Rock
Launch Altitude (f): 5075
LZ Altitude (f): 1140
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

16 OCT 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 51 51 W 1 2661 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 49 49 W 1 2661 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 49 49 W 1 2661 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 50 SW 1 2661 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 54 55 SW 1 2661 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 59 61 SW 1 4086 5075 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 64 67 W 5 6834 6054 979 Blue 5
12 Noon Tue 66 70 W 5 7964 6797 1722 Blue 8
1 PM Tue 68 72 W 5 8758 7547 2472 Blue 10
2 PM Tue 68 72 NW 3 8758 7547 2472 Blue 10
3 PM Tue 68 71 NW 3 8331 7175 2100 Blue 9
4 PM Tue 68 69 NW 3 7593 6455 1380 Blue 7
5 PM Tue 66 66 NW 7 6472 5670 595 Blue 4
6 PM Tue 64 64 NW 7 6068 5075 0 Blue 2
7 PM Tue 61 61 NW 7 4086 5075 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 59 59 NE 6 2661 5075 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 57 57 NE 6 2661 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 56 56 NE 6 2661 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 55 55 E 6 2661 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 55 55 E 6 2661 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 54 54 E 6 2661 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 53 53 E 7 2661 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 53 53 E 7 2661 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 52 52 E 7 2661 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 52 52 E 8 2661 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 51 51 E 8 2661 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 51 51 E 8 2661 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 53 53 E 6 2661 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 57 58 E 6 2661 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 62 64 E 6 6068 5075 0 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 66 69 W 7 7593 6455 1380 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 68 72 W 7 8758 7547 2472 Blue 10
1 PM Wed 69 73 W 7 9904 7915 2840 Blue 11
2 PM Wed 70 74 W 8 10561 8278 3203 Blue 12
3 PM Wed 70 73 W 8 9904 7915 2840 Blue 11
4 PM Wed 70 71 W 8 8331 7175 2100 Blue 9
5 PM Wed 69 69 W 2 7593 6455 1380 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 66 66 W 2 6472 5670 595 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 63 63 W 2 5732 5075 0 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 60 60 W 2 3262 5075 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 58 58 W 2 2661 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 57 57 W 2 2661 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 57 57 E 5 2661 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 56 56 E 5 2661 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 56 56 E 5 2661 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 55 E 5 2661 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 55 55 E 5 2661 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 54 54 E 5 2661 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 53 53 NE 5 2661 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 52 52 NE 5 2661 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 52 52 NE 5 2661 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 53 53 NE 5 2661 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 57 58 NE 5 2661 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 62 64 NE 5 6068 5075 0 Blue 2
11 AM Thu 66 69 W 7 7593 6455 1380 Blue 7
12 Noon Thu 69 73 W 7 9904 7915 2840 Blue 11
1 PM Thu 70 74 W 7 10561 8278 3203 Blue 12
2 PM Thu 70 74 W 7 10561 8278 3203 Blue 12
3 PM Thu 70 73 W 7 9904 7915 2840 Blue 11
4 PM Thu 70 71 W 7 8331 7175 2100 Blue 9
5 PM Thu 68 68 W 5 7216 6255 1180 Blue 6
6 PM Thu 66 66 W 5 6472 5670 595 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 63 63 W 5 5732 5075 0 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 60 60 W 5 3262 5075 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 58 58 W 5 2661 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 57 57 W 5 2661 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 57 57 NW 6 2661 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 56 56 NW 6 2661 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 56 56 NW 6 2661 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 55 55 NW 6 2661 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 55 55 NW 6 2661 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 55 55 NW 6 2661 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 55 55 NE 6 2661 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 54 54 NE 6 2661 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 54 54 NE 6 2661 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 56 56 NE 6 2661 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 60 61 NE 6 4086 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 65 67 NE 6 6834 6054 979 Blue 5
11 AM Fri 70 73 W 5 9904 7915 2840 Blue 11
12 Noon Fri 73 77 W 5 11850 10464 5389 Blue 15
1 PM Fri 74 78 W 5 12252 10898 5823 Blue 16
2 PM Fri 75 79 W 5 13085 11323 6248 Blue 17
3 PM Fri 75 78 W 5 12252 10898 5823 Blue 16
4 PM Fri 75 76 W 5 11429 9696 4621 Blue 14
5 PM Fri 73 73 NW 6 9904 7915 2840 Blue 11
6 PM Fri 70 70 NW 6 7964 6797 1722 Blue 8
7 PM Fri 66 66 NW 6 6472 5670 595 Blue 4
8 PM Fri 63 63 NW 6 5732 5075 0 Blue 1
9 PM Fri 61 61 NW 6 4086 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 60 60 NW 6 3262 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 59 59 N 6 2661 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 58 58 N 6 2661 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 57 57 N 6 2661 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 57 57 N 6 2661 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 56 56 N 6 2661 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 56 56 N 6 2661 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 56 56 N 6 2661 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 54 54 N 6 2661 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 54 54 N 6 2661 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 56 56 N 6 2661 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 60 61 N 6 4086 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 66 68 N 6 7216 6255 1180 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 71 74 W 5 10561 8278 3203 Blue 12
12 Noon Sat 74 78 W 5 12252 10898 5823 Blue 16
1 PM Sat 74 78 W 5 12252 10898 5823 Blue 16
2 PM Sat 75 79 W 5 13085 11323 6248 Blue 17
3 PM Sat 75 78 W 5 12252 10898 5823 Blue 16
4 PM Sat 75 76 W 5 11429 9696 4621 Blue 14
5 PM Sat 74 74 N 6 10561 8278 3203 Blue 12
6 PM Sat 71 71 N 6 8331 7175 2100 Blue 9
7 PM Sat 68 68 N 6 7216 6255 1180 Blue 6
8 PM Sat 66 66 N 6 6472 5670 595 Blue 4
9 PM Sat 64 64 N 6 6068 5075 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sat 63 63 N 6 5732 5075 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sat 62 62 NE 6 4856 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 62 62 NE 6 4856 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 61 61 NE 6 4086 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 61 61 NE 6 4086 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 60 60 NE 6 3262 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 60 60 NE 6 3262 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 60 60 NE 5 3262 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 59 59 NE 5 2661 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 58 58 NE 5 2661 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 59 59 NE 5 2661 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 62 62 NE 5 4856 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 66 68 NE 5 7216 6255 1180 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 70 73 S 3 9904 7915 2840 Blue 11
12 Noon Sun 72 76 S 3 11429 9696 4621 Blue 14
1 PM Sun 73 77 S 3 11850 10464 5389 Blue 15
2 PM Sun 73 76 S 3 11429 9696 4621 Blue 14
3 PM Sun 73 75 S 3 11000 8637 3562 Blue 13
4 PM Sun 73 74 S 3 10561 8278 3203 Blue 12
5 PM Sun 71 71 W 2 8331 7175 2100 Blue 9
6 PM Sun 69 69 W 2 7593 6455 1380 Blue 7
7 PM Sun 66 66 W 2 6472 5670 595 Blue 4
8 PM Sun 63 63 W 2 5732 5075 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sun 62 62 W 2 4856 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 61 61 W 2 4086 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 61 61 E 5 4086 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 60 60 E 5 3262 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 59 59 E 5 2661 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 59 59 E 5 2661 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 58 58 E 5 2661 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 58 58 E 5 2661 5075 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com