Detailed Predictions for: Slick Rock
Launch Altitude (f): 5075
LZ Altitude (f): 1140
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

17 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 56 56 NE 5 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 55 55 SE 5 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 51 51 S 3 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 51 51 SE 1 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 60 61 S 1 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 61 63 SW 3 4050 5075 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 62 65 SW 7 5371 5075 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Thu 64 68 SW 9 7509 5317 242 Blue 5
1 PM Thu 64 67 SW 9 7220 5075 0 Blue 4
2 PM Thu 65 68 SW 10 7509 5317 242 Blue 5
3 PM Thu 64 65 SW 8 5371 5075 0 Blue 2
4 PM Thu 63 63 W 8 4050 5075 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 61 61 W 9 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 57 57 W 9 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 53 53 W 8 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 52 52 SW 5 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 50 50 S 5 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 50 50 SE 3 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 50 50 NE 3 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 49 49 NE 2 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 48 48 NE 2 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 48 48 NE 5 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 48 E 2 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 47 47 E 7 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 47 47 E 7 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 46 46 E 6 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 46 46 E 7 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 46 46 E 7 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 56 57 E 3 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 57 58 S 2 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 59 62 SW 6 3720 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 61 65 SW 6 5371 5075 0 Blue 2
1 PM Fri 64 68 SW 6 7509 5317 242 Blue 5
2 PM Fri 65 69 W 6 7695 6330 1255 Blue 6
3 PM Fri 65 68 W 6 7509 5317 242 Blue 5
4 PM Fri 64 65 W 6 5371 5075 0 Blue 2
5 PM Fri 62 62 W 3 3720 5075 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 58 58 W 3 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 54 54 W 3 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 51 51 N 3 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 50 50 N 3 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 50 50 N 3 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 51 51 NE 3 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 51 51 NE 3 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 50 50 NE 3 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 50 50 NE 3 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 50 50 NE 3 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 50 50 NE 3 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 50 50 N 3 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 49 49 N 3 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 48 48 N 3 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 49 49 N 3 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 52 53 N 3 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 57 59 N 3 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 61 64 W 6 4760 5075 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sat 64 68 W 6 7509 5317 242 Blue 5
1 PM Sat 65 69 W 6 7695 6330 1255 Blue 6
2 PM Sat 66 70 W 8 7881 7166 2091 Blue 7
3 PM Sat 66 69 W 8 7695 6330 1255 Blue 6
4 PM Sat 65 66 W 8 6410 5075 0 Blue 3
5 PM Sat 63 63 NW 7 4050 5075 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 59 59 NW 7 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 55 55 NW 7 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 52 52 N 6 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 51 51 N 6 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 51 51 N 6 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 52 52 NW 6 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 52 52 NW 6 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 52 52 NW 6 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 52 52 N 5 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 51 51 N 5 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 51 51 N 5 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 50 50 NE 5 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 49 49 NE 5 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 48 48 NE 5 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 48 48 E 3 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 51 52 E 3 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 56 58 E 3 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 60 63 S 6 4050 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 63 67 S 6 7220 5075 0 Blue 4
1 PM Sun 64 68 S 6 7509 5317 242 Blue 5
2 PM Sun 65 69 SW 6 7695 6330 1255 Blue 6
3 PM Sun 66 69 SW 6 7695 6330 1255 Blue 6
4 PM Sun 65 66 SW 6 6410 5075 0 Blue 3
5 PM Sun 64 64 W 3 4760 5075 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sun 61 61 W 3 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 56 56 W 3 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 53 53 NE 3 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 52 52 NE 3 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 52 52 NE 3 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 53 53 E 5 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 53 53 E 5 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 53 53 E 5 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 53 53 E 5 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 53 53 E 5 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 53 53 E 5 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 53 53 E 5 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 52 52 E 5 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 52 52 E 5 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 53 53 E 3 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 57 58 E 3 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 62 64 E 3 4760 5075 0 Blue 1
11 AM Mon 67 70 W 5 7881 7166 2091 Blue 7
12 Noon Mon 70 74 W 5 8621 8041 2966 Blue 11
1 PM Mon 73 77 W 5 9179 8593 3518 Blue 14
2 PM Mon 74 78 W 6 9368 8776 3701 Blue 15
3 PM Mon 74 77 W 6 9179 8593 3518 Blue 14
4 PM Mon 73 74 W 6 8621 8041 2966 Blue 11
5 PM Mon 71 71 W 3 8067 7487 2412 Blue 8
6 PM Mon 67 67 W 3 7220 5075 0 Blue 4
7 PM Mon 63 63 W 3 4050 5075 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 59 59 NE 5 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 58 58 NE 5 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 58 58 NE 5 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 58 58 E 6 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 58 58 E 6 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 57 57 E 6 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 57 57 NE 6 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 57 57 NE 6 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 57 57 NE 6 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 57 57 NE 6 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 56 56 NE 6 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 56 56 NE 6 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 57 57 E 5 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 62 63 E 5 4050 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 68 70 E 5 7881 7166 2091 Blue 7
11 AM Tue 73 76 W 5 8990 8409 3334 Blue 13
12 Noon Tue 76 80 W 5 9745 9146 4071 Blue 17
1 PM Tue 78 82 W 5 10218 9522 4447 Blue 19
2 PM Tue 78 82 W 6 10218 9522 4447 Blue 19
3 PM Tue 78 81 W 6 9933 9334 4259 Blue 18
4 PM Tue 77 78 W 6 9368 8776 3701 Blue 15
5 PM Tue 75 75 W 3 8805 8225 3150 Blue 12
6 PM Tue 70 70 W 3 7881 7166 2091 Blue 7
7 PM Tue 65 65 W 3 5371 5075 0 Blue 2
8 PM Tue 61 61 N 5 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 60 60 N 5 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 60 60 N 5 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 60 60 NE 5 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 59 59 NE 5 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 59 59 NE 5 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 58 58 E 5 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 58 58 E 5 3478 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 58 58 E 5 3478 5075 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com