Detailed Predictions for: Slick Rock
Launch Altitude (f): 5075
LZ Altitude (f): 1140
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

19 JUN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 65 65 E 3 4733 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 66 66 E 3 5516 5075 0 Blue 1
7 AM Tue 68 68 E 3 6232 5075 0 Blue 3
8 AM Tue 70 71 W 3 6732 6219 1144 Blue 6
9 AM Tue 73 76 W 3 7515 7300 2225 Blue 11
10 AM Tue 75 80 W 3 7793 7576 2501 Blue 15
11 AM Tue 78 85 W 7 8358 7923 2848 Blue 20
12 Noon Tue 80 88 W 7 8925 8331 3256 Blue 22
1 PM Tue 82 91 W 7 9680 8894 3819 Blue 25
2 PM Tue 83 91 W 9 9680 8894 3819 Blue 25
3 PM Tue 85 92 W 9 10017 9081 4006 Blue 26
4 PM Tue 86 91 W 9 9680 8894 3819 Blue 25
5 PM Tue 85 88 W 9 8925 8331 3256 Blue 22
6 PM Tue 82 83 W 9 8048 7784 2709 Blue 18
7 PM Tue 77 77 W 9 7585 7369 2294 Blue 12
8 PM Tue 73 73 W 5 7308 6551 1476 Blue 8
9 PM Tue 71 71 W 5 6732 6219 1144 Blue 6
10 PM Tue 69 69 W 5 6399 5463 388 Blue 4
11 PM Tue 69 69 E 5 6399 5463 388 Blue 4
12 Midnight Wed 68 68 E 5 6232 5075 0 Blue 3
1 AM Wed 67 67 E 5 6065 5075 0 Blue 2
2 AM Wed 65 65 E 3 4733 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 64 64 E 3 4141 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 63 63 E 3 3526 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 63 63 E 3 3526 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 65 65 E 3 4733 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 69 69 E 3 6399 5463 388 Blue 4
8 AM Wed 73 74 E 3 7377 6717 1642 Blue 9
9 AM Wed 78 81 E 3 7862 7646 2571 Blue 16
10 AM Wed 83 88 E 3 8925 8331 3256 Blue 22
11 AM Wed 87 94 W 7 10928 9616 4541 Blue 28
12 Noon Wed 90 99 W 7 12608 11725 6650 Blue 33
1 PM Wed 92 101 W 7 13079 12304 7229 Blue 35
2 PM Wed 94 102 W 7 13314 12540 7465 Blue 36
3 PM Wed 96 103 W 7 13547 12775 7700 Blue 37
4 PM Wed 97 102 W 7 13314 12540 7465 Blue 36
5 PM Wed 96 99 W 7 12608 11725 6650 Blue 33
6 PM Wed 92 93 W 7 10391 9279 4204 Blue 27
7 PM Wed 87 87 W 7 8737 8175 3100 Blue 22
8 PM Wed 82 82 W 7 7932 7715 2640 Blue 17
9 PM Wed 78 78 W 7 7654 7438 2363 Blue 13
10 PM Wed 76 76 W 7 7515 7300 2225 Blue 11
11 PM Wed 75 75 N 5 7446 7003 1928 Blue 10
12 Midnight Thu 74 74 N 5 7377 6717 1642 Blue 9
1 AM Thu 73 73 N 5 7308 6551 1476 Blue 8
2 AM Thu 71 71 N 5 6732 6219 1144 Blue 6
3 AM Thu 69 69 N 5 6399 5463 388 Blue 4
4 AM Thu 67 67 N 5 6065 5075 0 Blue 2
5 AM Thu 67 67 N 6 6065 5075 0 Blue 2
6 AM Thu 69 69 N 6 6399 5463 388 Blue 4
7 AM Thu 73 73 N 6 7308 6551 1476 Blue 8
8 AM Thu 77 78 N 6 7654 7438 2363 Blue 13
9 AM Thu 82 85 N 6 8358 7923 2848 Blue 20
10 AM Thu 86 91 N 6 9680 8894 3819 Blue 25
11 AM Thu 89 96 W 7 11830 10281 5206 Blue 30
12 Noon Thu 92 100 W 7 12844 12067 6992 Blue 34
1 PM Thu 94 103 W 7 13547 12775 7700 Blue 37
2 PM Thu 96 104 W 7 14109 13008 7933 Blue 38
3 PM Thu 98 105 W 7 15035 13241 8166 Blue 39
4 PM Thu 99 104 W 7 14109 13008 7933 Blue 38
5 PM Thu 98 101 W 9 13079 12304 7229 Blue 35
6 PM Thu 95 96 W 9 11830 10281 5206 Blue 30
7 PM Thu 90 90 W 9 9339 8707 3632 Blue 24
8 PM Thu 84 84 W 9 8195 7853 2778 Blue 19
9 PM Thu 79 79 W 9 7723 7507 2432 Blue 14
10 PM Thu 74 74 W 9 7377 6717 1642 Blue 9
11 PM Thu 71 71 N 5 6732 6219 1144 Blue 6
12 Midnight Fri 69 69 N 5 6399 5463 388 Blue 4
1 AM Fri 68 68 N 5 6232 5075 0 Blue 3
2 AM Fri 67 67 N 5 6065 5075 0 Blue 2
3 AM Fri 66 66 N 5 5516 5075 0 Blue 1
4 AM Fri 65 65 N 5 4733 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 65 65 NW 5 4733 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 67 67 NW 5 6065 5075 0 Blue 2
7 AM Fri 70 70 NW 5 6566 6053 978 Blue 5
8 AM Fri 75 76 NW 5 7515 7300 2225 Blue 11
9 AM Fri 80 83 NW 5 8048 7784 2709 Blue 18
10 AM Fri 85 90 NW 5 9339 8707 3632 Blue 24
11 AM Fri 89 96 W 6 11830 10281 5206 Blue 30
12 Noon Fri 93 101 W 6 13079 12304 7229 Blue 35
1 PM Fri 96 104 W 6 14109 13008 7933 Blue 38
2 PM Fri 97 105 W 6 15035 13241 8166 Blue 39
3 PM Fri 98 105 W 6 15035 13241 8166 Blue 39
4 PM Fri 98 103 W 6 13547 12775 7700 Blue 37
5 PM Fri 96 99 W 9 12608 11725 6650 Blue 33
6 PM Fri 94 95 W 9 11418 9950 4875 Blue 29
7 PM Fri 90 90 W 9 9339 8707 3632 Blue 24
8 PM Fri 86 86 W 9 8548 8028 2953 Blue 21
9 PM Fri 82 82 W 9 7932 7715 2640 Blue 17
10 PM Fri 79 79 W 9 7723 7507 2432 Blue 14
11 PM Fri 75 75 N 5 7446 7003 1928 Blue 10
12 Midnight Sat 72 72 N 5 7043 6385 1310 Blue 7
1 AM Sat 70 70 N 5 6566 6053 978 Blue 5
2 AM Sat 68 68 N 5 6232 5075 0 Blue 3
3 AM Sat 68 68 N 5 6232 5075 0 Blue 3
4 AM Sat 69 69 N 5 6399 5463 388 Blue 4
5 AM Sat 70 70 N 6 6566 6053 978 Blue 5
6 AM Sat 73 73 N 6 7308 6551 1476 Blue 8
7 AM Sat 76 76 N 6 7515 7300 2225 Blue 11
8 AM Sat 80 81 N 6 7862 7646 2571 Blue 16
9 AM Sat 84 87 N 6 8737 8175 3100 Blue 22
10 AM Sat 88 93 N 6 10391 9279 4204 Blue 27
11 AM Sat 91 98 W 5 12370 11317 6242 Blue 32
12 Noon Sat 94 102 W 5 13314 12540 7465 Blue 36
1 PM Sat 96 105 W 5 15035 13241 8166 Blue 39
2 PM Sat 97 105 W 5 15035 13241 8166 Blue 39
3 PM Sat 97 104 W 5 14109 13008 7933 Blue 38
4 PM Sat 96 101 W 5 13079 12304 7229 Blue 35
5 PM Sat 95 98 W 7 12370 11317 6242 Blue 32
6 PM Sat 93 94 W 7 10928 9616 4541 Blue 28
7 PM Sat 90 90 W 7 9339 8707 3632 Blue 24
8 PM Sat 86 86 W 7 8548 8028 2953 Blue 21
9 PM Sat 83 83 W 7 8048 7784 2709 Blue 18
10 PM Sat 79 79 W 7 7723 7507 2432 Blue 14
11 PM Sat 76 76 NE 5 7515 7300 2225 Blue 11
12 Midnight Sun 74 74 NE 5 7377 6717 1642 Blue 9
1 AM Sun 72 72 NE 5 7043 6385 1310 Blue 7
2 AM Sun 70 70 NE 5 6566 6053 978 Blue 5
3 AM Sun 70 70 NE 5 6566 6053 978 Blue 5
4 AM Sun 70 70 NE 5 6566 6053 978 Blue 5
5 AM Sun 72 72 NE 6 7043 6385 1310 Blue 7
6 AM Sun 74 74 NE 6 7377 6717 1642 Blue 9
7 AM Sun 77 77 NE 6 7585 7369 2294 Blue 12
8 AM Sun 81 82 NE 6 7932 7715 2640 Blue 17
9 AM Sun 85 88 NE 6 8925 8331 3256 Blue 22
10 AM Sun 89 94 NE 6 10928 9616 4541 Blue 28
11 AM Sun 92 99 SW 6 12608 11725 6650 Blue 33
12 Noon Sun 95 103 SW 6 13547 12775 7700 Blue 37
1 PM Sun 97 105 SW 6 15035 13241 8166 Blue 39
2 PM Sun 98 106 SW 6 15849 13473 8398 Blue 40
3 PM Sun 98 104 SW 6 14109 13008 7933 Blue 38
4 PM Sun 97 101 SW 6 13079 12304 7229 Blue 35
5 PM Sun 96 99 W 5 12608 11725 6650 Blue 33
6 PM Sun 93 94 W 5 10928 9616 4541 Blue 28
7 PM Sun 89 89 W 5 9113 8519 3444 Blue 23
8 PM Sun 86 86 W 5 8548 8028 2953 Blue 21
9 PM Sun 81 81 W 5 7862 7646 2571 Blue 16
10 PM Sun 77 77 W 5 7585 7369 2294 Blue 12
11 PM Sun 74 74 N 6 7377 6717 1642 Blue 9
12 Midnight Mon 71 71 N 6 6732 6219 1144 Blue 6
1 AM Mon 69 69 N 6 6399 5463 388 Blue 4
2 AM Mon 67 67 N 6 6065 5075 0 Blue 2
3 AM Mon 67 67 N 6 6065 5075 0 Blue 2
4 AM Mon 67 67 N 6 6065 5075 0 Blue 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com