Detailed Predictions for: Slick Rock
Launch Altitude (f): 5075
LZ Altitude (f): 1140
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

14 DEC 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 53 53 E 8 3299 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 53 53 E 8 3299 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 57 57 E 8 4295 5075 0 Blue 1
7 AM Fri 53 53 NE 6 3299 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 54 54 NE 6 3521 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 57 57 NE 6 4295 5075 0 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 57 57 NE 8 4295 5075 0 Blue 1
11 AM Fri 58 58 NE 8 4636 5075 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Fri 58 58 NE 8 4636 5075 0 Blue 2
1 PM Fri 58 58 E 2 4636 5075 0 Blue 2
2 PM Fri 57 57 E 2 4295 5075 0 Blue 1
3 PM Fri 58 58 E 2 4636 5075 0 Blue 2
4 PM Fri 52 52 NE 3 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 47 47 NE 3 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 46 46 NE 3 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 46 46 E 3 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 44 44 E 3 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 44 44 E 3 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 44 44 E 2 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 44 44 E 2 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 45 45 E 2 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 44 44 E 2 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 43 43 E 2 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 43 43 E 2 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 42 42 E 3 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 42 42 E 3 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 43 43 E 3 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 41 41 N 1 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 43 43 N 1 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 53 53 N 1 3299 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 55 56 W 2 3962 5075 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 56 57 W 2 4295 5075 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sat 56 58 W 2 4636 5075 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sat 56 57 SW 3 4295 5075 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sat 55 56 SW 3 3962 5075 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 57 57 SW 3 4295 5075 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sat 52 52 E 2 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 49 49 E 2 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 48 48 E 2 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 48 48 E 2 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 47 47 E 2 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 46 46 E 2 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 46 46 E 3 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 46 46 E 3 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 47 47 E 3 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 46 46 E 3 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 46 46 E 3 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 45 45 E 3 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 45 45 E 3 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 45 45 E 3 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 46 46 E 3 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 44 44 E 3 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 46 46 E 3 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 56 56 E 3 3962 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 58 58 SE 3 4636 5075 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 59 60 SE 3 5242 5075 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 59 60 SE 3 5242 5075 0 Blue 4
1 PM Sun 59 60 SE 3 5242 5075 0 Blue 4
2 PM Sun 58 58 SE 3 4636 5075 0 Blue 2
3 PM Sun 60 60 SE 3 5242 5075 0 Blue 4
4 PM Sun 55 55 E 2 3742 5075 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 51 51 E 2 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 50 50 E 2 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 50 50 E 2 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 49 49 E 2 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 49 49 E 2 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 49 49 E 2 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 48 48 E 2 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 49 49 E 2 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 48 48 E 2 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 48 48 E 2 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 47 47 E 2 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 47 47 E 2 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 47 47 E 2 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 48 48 E 2 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 46 46 E 2 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 47 47 E 2 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 50 50 E 2 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 50 50 SW 1 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 51 51 SW 1 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 51 51 SW 1 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 51 51 SW 1 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 50 50 SW 1 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 51 51 SW 1 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 47 47 N 2 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 45 45 N 2 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 44 44 N 2 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 44 44 N 2 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 43 43 N 2 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 43 43 N 2 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 43 43 NE 2 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 43 43 NE 2 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 43 43 NE 2 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 43 43 NE 2 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 42 42 NE 2 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 42 42 NE 2 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 42 42 NE 2 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 42 42 NE 2 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 42 42 NE 2 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 41 41 NE 2 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 42 42 NE 2 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 50 50 NE 2 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 52 53 W 2 3299 5075 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 52 53 W 2 3299 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 53 54 W 2 3521 5075 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 53 54 W 2 3521 5075 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 52 53 W 2 3299 5075 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 53 53 W 2 3299 5075 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 49 49 N 2 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 46 46 N 2 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 45 45 N 2 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 45 45 N 2 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 44 44 N 2 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 44 44 N 2 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 44 44 NE 2 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 44 44 NE 2 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 45 45 NE 2 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 44 44 NE 2 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 43 43 NE 2 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 43 43 NE 2 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 43 43 E 2 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 43 43 E 2 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 43 43 E 2 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 42 42 E 2 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 44 44 E 2 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 55 55 E 2 3742 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 58 59 W 1 4973 5075 0 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 59 60 W 1 5242 5075 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Wed 59 61 W 1 5503 5075 0 Blue 5
1 PM Wed 59 60 W 1 5242 5075 0 Blue 4
2 PM Wed 58 59 W 1 4973 5075 0 Blue 3
3 PM Wed 60 60 W 1 5242 5075 0 Blue 4
4 PM Wed 55 55 NE 1 3742 5075 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 50 50 NE 1 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 50 50 NE 1 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 49 49 NE 1 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 48 48 NE 1 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 48 48 NE 1 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 48 48 E 3 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 47 47 E 3 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 48 48 E 3 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 48 48 E 3 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 47 47 E 3 3186 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 47 47 E 3 3186 5075 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com