Detailed Predictions for: Slick Rock
Launch Altitude (f): 5075
LZ Altitude (f): 1140
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 57 57 SE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 58 58 SE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 57 57 SE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 62 63 S 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 66 69 S 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 66 70 S 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 69 74 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 71 76 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 73 79 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 75 80 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 77 81 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 76 79 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 75 76 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 73 73 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 68 68 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 62 62 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 61 61 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 60 60 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 59 59 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 58 58 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 56 56 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 55 55 S 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 55 55 S 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 54 54 S 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 54 54 S 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 53 53 S 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 52 52 S 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 56 57 W 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 59 61 W 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 59 63 W 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 61 67 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 62 69 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 64 71 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 65 71 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 67 72 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 66 69 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 65 67 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 64 64 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 60 60 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 55 55 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 54 54 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 54 54 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 53 53 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 52 52 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 50 50 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 49 49 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 49 49 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 49 49 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 48 48 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 48 48 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 47 47 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 50 50 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 53 54 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 53 56 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 55 59 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 57 62 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 59 64 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 59 63 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 61 65 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 60 62 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 60 61 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 59 59 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 55 55 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 52 52 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 51 51 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 50 50 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 50 50 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 49 49 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 47 47 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 47 47 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 47 47 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 46 46 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 46 46 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 46 46 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 45 45 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 49 49 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 53 55 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 53 56 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 55 59 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 57 62 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 59 64 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 60 65 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 62 66 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 61 64 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 61 62 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 60 60 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 56 56 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 53 53 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 52 52 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 51 51 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 51 51 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 50 50 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 48 48 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 48 48 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 48 48 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 47 47 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 47 47 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 47 47 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 46 46 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 49 49 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 52 53 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 52 55 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 54 58 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 55 59 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 57 62 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 58 62 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 59 62 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 58 60 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 58 59 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 57 57 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 55 55 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 53 53 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 52 52 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 52 52 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 51 51 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 51 51 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 50 50 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 49 49 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 49 49 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 49 49 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 49 49 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 49 49 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 48 48 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 51 51 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 54 55 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 54 56 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 56 59 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 57 61 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 59 63 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 60 64 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 61 64 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 60 62 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 60 61 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 59 59 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 57 57 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 54 54 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 53 53 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 53 53 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 52 52 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 52 52 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 51 51 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 50 50 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 50 50 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 50 50 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com