Detailed Predictions for: Slick Rock
Launch Altitude (f): 5075
LZ Altitude (f): 1140
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

15 JUN 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 65 65 E 3 3780 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 66 66 NE 6 3813 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 68 68 E 2 3883 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 73 74 S 1 5650 5075 0 Blue 4
9 AM Sat 76 79 SW 3 6324 5911 836 Blue 9
10 AM Sat 78 83 SW 5 7964 6448 1373 Blue 13
11 AM Sat 80 87 SW 6 9477 8295 3220 Blue 17
12 Noon Sat 81 90 SW 6 11520 9410 4335 Blue 20
1 PM Sat 83 92 SW 7 12767 10693 5618 Blue 22
2 PM Sat 85 93 SW 7 13922 11359 6284 White 23
3 PM Sat 85 92 SW 7 12767 10693 5618 Blue 22
4 PM Sat 84 89 SW 7 10848 9043 3968 Blue 19
5 PM Sat 83 86 SW 6 9106 7913 2838 Blue 16
6 PM Sat 82 83 SW 5 7964 6448 1373 Blue 13
7 PM Sat 78 78 SW 2 6190 5777 702 Blue 8
8 PM Sat 73 73 SE 1 5515 5075 0 Blue 3
9 PM Sat 72 72 SE 1 4712 5075 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sat 70 70 SE 2 3954 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 69 69 SE 3 3919 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 69 69 E 1 3919 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 68 68 NE 3 3883 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 68 68 E 6 3883 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 67 67 E 6 3848 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 67 67 E 6 3848 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 66 66 E 2 3813 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 66 66 E 2 3813 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 67 67 SW 2 3848 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 73 74 W 2 5650 5075 0 Blue 4
9 AM Sun 76 79 W 2 6324 5911 836 Blue 9
10 AM Sun 77 82 W 5 6918 6314 1239 Blue 12
11 AM Sun 78 84 W 5 8350 6641 1566 Blue 14
12 Noon Sun 80 87 W 5 9477 8295 3220 Blue 17
1 PM Sun 82 90 W 6 11520 9410 4335 Blue 20
2 PM Sun 83 90 W 6 11520 9410 4335 Blue 20
3 PM Sun 84 90 W 6 11520 9410 4335 Blue 20
4 PM Sun 83 87 W 5 9477 8295 3220 Blue 17
5 PM Sun 82 85 W 5 8730 6857 1782 Blue 15
6 PM Sun 79 80 W 5 6459 6045 970 Blue 10
7 PM Sun 75 75 W 3 5785 5075 0 Blue 5
8 PM Sun 72 72 W 3 4712 5075 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sun 70 70 W 3 3954 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 69 69 NW 2 3919 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 69 69 NW 2 3919 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 69 69 N 2 3919 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 68 68 NE 3 3883 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 68 68 NE 3 3883 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 67 67 NE 3 3848 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 66 66 E 2 3813 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 66 66 E 2 3813 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 68 68 E 2 3883 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 72 72 S 2 4712 5075 0 Blue 2
8 AM Mon 75 76 S 2 5920 5508 433 Blue 6
9 AM Mon 77 80 S 3 6459 6045 970 Blue 10
10 AM Mon 79 84 SW 3 8350 6641 1566 Blue 14
11 AM Mon 81 85 SW 5 8730 6857 1782 Blue 15
12 Noon Mon 82 86 SW 5 9106 7913 2838 Blue 16
1 PM Mon 83 88 W 3 10021 8672 3597 Blue 18
2 PM Mon 84 88 W 3 10021 8672 3597 Blue 18
3 PM Mon 84 88 W 3 10021 8672 3597 Blue 18
4 PM Mon 84 86 W 3 9106 7913 2838 Blue 16
5 PM Mon 83 86 W 3 9106 7913 2838 Blue 16
6 PM Mon 81 82 NW 3 6918 6314 1239 Blue 12
7 PM Mon 78 78 N 2 6190 5777 702 Blue 8
8 PM Mon 75 75 NE 2 5785 5075 0 Blue 5
9 PM Mon 74 74 NE 2 5650 5075 0 Blue 4
10 PM Mon 73 73 E 3 5515 5075 0 Blue 3
11 PM Mon 72 72 E 3 4712 5075 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Tue 71 71 E 3 4242 5075 0 Blue 1
1 AM Tue 71 71 NE 3 4242 5075 0 Blue 1
2 AM Tue 70 70 NE 3 3954 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 69 69 NE 3 3919 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 68 68 NE 3 3883 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 68 68 NE 3 3883 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 71 71 E 3 4242 5075 0 Blue 1
7 AM Tue 74 74 SE 2 5650 5075 0 Blue 4
8 AM Tue 78 79 SE 2 6324 5911 836 Blue 9
9 AM Tue 80 83 S 3 7964 6448 1373 Blue 13
10 AM Tue 82 87 SW 3 9477 8295 3220 Blue 17
11 AM Tue 84 90 W 5 11520 9410 4335 Blue 20
12 Noon Tue 86 93 W 5 13922 11359 6284 White 23
1 PM Tue 87 95 W 3 14337 12594 7519 White 25
2 PM Tue 88 95 W 3 14337 12594 7519 White 25
3 PM Tue 88 94 W 3 14130 11991 6916 White 24
4 PM Tue 88 92 W 3 12767 10693 5618 Blue 22
5 PM Tue 87 90 W 3 11520 9410 4335 Blue 20
6 PM Tue 84 85 W 3 8730 6857 1782 Blue 15
7 PM Tue 81 81 W 3 6661 6180 1105 Blue 11
8 PM Tue 78 78 W 3 6190 5777 702 Blue 8
9 PM Tue 76 76 W 3 5920 5508 433 Blue 6
10 PM Tue 75 75 W 3 5785 5075 0 Blue 5
11 PM Tue 74 74 NE 3 5650 5075 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Wed 73 73 NE 3 5515 5075 0 Blue 3
1 AM Wed 73 73 NE 3 5515 5075 0 Blue 3
2 AM Wed 72 72 NE 3 4712 5075 0 Blue 2
3 AM Wed 71 71 NE 3 4242 5075 0 Blue 1
4 AM Wed 70 70 NE 3 3954 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 70 70 N 1 3954 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 72 72 N 1 4712 5075 0 Blue 2
7 AM Wed 75 75 N 1 5785 5075 0 Blue 5
8 AM Wed 78 79 N 1 6324 5911 836 Blue 9
9 AM Wed 80 83 N 1 7964 6448 1373 Blue 13
10 AM Wed 82 87 N 1 9477 8295 3220 Blue 17
11 AM Wed 84 91 W 6 12158 9773 4698 Blue 21
12 Noon Wed 86 94 W 6 14130 11991 6916 White 24
1 PM Wed 88 96 W 6 14544 13173 8098 White 26
2 PM Wed 89 97 W 6 14751 13730 8655 White 27
3 PM Wed 90 96 W 6 14544 13173 8098 White 26
4 PM Wed 89 94 W 6 14130 11991 6916 White 24
5 PM Wed 88 91 W 5 12158 9773 4698 Blue 21
6 PM Wed 85 86 W 5 9106 7913 2838 Blue 16
7 PM Wed 81 81 W 5 6661 6180 1105 Blue 11
8 PM Wed 78 78 W 5 6190 5777 702 Blue 8
9 PM Wed 76 76 W 5 5920 5508 433 Blue 6
10 PM Wed 75 75 W 5 5785 5075 0 Blue 5
11 PM Wed 74 74 NW 3 5650 5075 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Thu 73 73 NW 3 5515 5075 0 Blue 3
1 AM Thu 73 73 NW 3 5515 5075 0 Blue 3
2 AM Thu 72 72 NW 3 4712 5075 0 Blue 2
3 AM Thu 70 70 NW 3 3954 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 69 69 NW 3 3919 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 69 69 NW 2 3919 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 71 71 NW 2 4242 5075 0 Blue 1
7 AM Thu 74 74 NW 2 5650 5075 0 Blue 4
8 AM Thu 77 78 NW 2 6190 5777 702 Blue 8
9 AM Thu 79 82 NW 2 6918 6314 1239 Blue 12
10 AM Thu 81 86 NW 2 9106 7913 2838 Blue 16
11 AM Thu 83 90 W 7 11520 9410 4335 Blue 20
12 Noon Thu 85 93 W 7 13922 11359 6284 White 23
1 PM Thu 86 95 W 7 14337 12594 7519 White 25
2 PM Thu 87 95 W 7 14337 12594 7519 White 25
3 PM Thu 88 95 W 7 14337 12594 7519 White 25
4 PM Thu 87 92 W 7 12767 10693 5618 Blue 22
5 PM Thu 86 89 W 6 10848 9043 3968 Blue 19
6 PM Thu 83 84 W 6 8350 6641 1566 Blue 14
7 PM Thu 79 79 W 6 6324 5911 836 Blue 9
8 PM Thu 75 75 W 6 5785 5075 0 Blue 5
9 PM Thu 73 73 W 6 5515 5075 0 Blue 3
10 PM Thu 72 72 W 6 4712 5075 0 Blue 2
11 PM Thu 71 71 SW 1 4242 5075 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Fri 70 70 SW 1 3954 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 70 70 SW 1 3954 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 69 69 SW 1 3919 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 68 68 SW 1 3883 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 66 66 SW 1 3813 5075 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com