Detailed Predictions for: Slick Rock
Launch Altitude (f): 5075
LZ Altitude (f): 1140
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 59 59 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 58 58 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 58 58 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 67 68 NE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 75 78 W 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 74 79 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 77 83 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 78 85 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 80 87 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 81 88 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 83 88 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 84 88 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 82 84 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 82 82 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 73 73 NW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 69 69 NW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 68 68 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 67 67 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 66 66 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 64 64 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 62 62 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 60 60 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 60 60 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 59 59 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 59 59 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 58 58 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 58 58 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 66 67 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 73 76 W 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 73 77 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 76 81 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 77 83 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 79 85 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 79 85 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 81 85 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 82 84 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 80 81 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 80 80 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 71 71 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 67 67 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 66 66 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 65 65 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 64 64 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 62 62 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 60 60 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 58 58 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 58 58 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 57 57 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 57 57 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 56 56 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 56 56 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 65 65 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 72 74 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 72 75 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 74 78 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 76 80 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 78 81 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 78 80 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 80 82 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 81 82 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 79 79 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 79 79 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 70 70 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 66 66 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 65 65 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 64 64 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 63 63 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 61 61 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 59 59 NE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 57 57 NE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 57 57 NE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 56 56 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 56 56 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 55 55 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 55 55 NE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 63 64 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 70 72 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 69 73 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 72 76 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 73 78 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 75 80 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 75 80 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 77 81 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 78 80 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 76 77 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 76 76 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 67 67 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 63 63 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 62 62 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 62 62 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 60 60 NW 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 59 59 NW 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 57 57 NW 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 55 55 NW 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 55 55 NW 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 54 54 NW 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 54 54 NW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 53 53 NW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 53 53 NW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 59 59 NW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 63 63 NW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 63 63 NW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 65 66 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 66 67 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 67 69 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 67 68 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 68 69 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 69 70 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 67 68 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 68 68 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 60 60 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 57 57 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 56 56 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 56 56 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 55 55 W 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 54 54 W 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 52 52 W 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 51 51 W 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 50 50 W 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 49 49 W 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 50 50 NW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 49 49 NW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 49 49 NW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 56 57 NW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 61 63 NW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 61 64 NW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 63 67 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 64 69 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 65 70 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 65 70 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 67 71 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 68 70 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 66 67 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 66 66 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 59 59 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 56 56 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 55 55 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 54 54 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 53 53 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 52 52 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 51 51 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 49 49 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 48 48 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 47 47 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com