Detailed Predictions for: Big Black
Launch Altitude (f): 3900
LZ Altitude (f): 1645
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 70 70 N 2 3550 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 71 71 N 2 3765 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 72 72 N 2 3953 3900 0 Blue 1
8 AM Sat 73 74 NW 1 4285 3900 0 Blue 3
9 AM Sat 74 76 NW 2 4616 4115 215 Blue 5
10 AM Sat 75 78 W 3 4947 4445 545 Blue 7
11 AM Sat 76 80 W 7 5330 4775 875 Blue 9
12 Noon Sat 77 81 W 7 5720 4939 1039 Blue 10
1 PM Sat 78 83 W 8 6180 5307 1407 Blue 12
2 PM Sat 77 81 W 10 5720 4939 1039 Blue 10
3 PM Sat 77 80 W 10 5330 4775 875 Blue 9
4 PM Sat 76 78 W 10 4947 4445 545 Blue 7
5 PM Sat 74 75 W 9 4451 3950 50 Blue 4
6 PM Sat 73 73 W 9 4119 3900 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sat 71 71 W 8 3765 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 70 70 W 3 3550 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 70 70 W 3 3550 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 70 70 NW 3 3550 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 71 71 N 2 3765 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 71 71 N 2 3765 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 71 71 N 2 3765 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 71 71 N 3 3765 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 71 71 N 3 3765 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 71 71 N 3 3765 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 72 72 N 5 3953 3900 0 Blue 1
6 AM Sun 73 73 N 5 4119 3900 0 Blue 2
7 AM Sun 74 74 N 3 4285 3900 0 Blue 3
8 AM Sun 76 77 NW 2 4782 4280 380 Blue 6
9 AM Sun 77 79 NW 3 5122 4610 710 Blue 8
10 AM Sun 79 83 NW 3 6180 5307 1407 Blue 12
11 AM Sun 81 88 W 7 8967 6427 2527 Blue 16
12 Noon Sun 84 93 W 8 10885 9450 5550 Blue 21
1 PM Sun 85 94 W 8 11246 9882 5982 Blue 22
2 PM Sun 85 93 W 9 10885 9450 5550 Blue 21
3 PM Sun 85 92 W 9 10510 9171 5271 Blue 20
4 PM Sun 83 88 W 9 8967 6427 2527 Blue 16
5 PM Sun 80 82 W 8 6051 5112 1212 Blue 11
6 PM Sun 78 79 W 8 5122 4610 710 Blue 8
7 PM Sun 75 75 W 7 4451 3950 50 Blue 4
8 PM Sun 74 74 NW 3 4285 3900 0 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 73 73 NW 3 4119 3900 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 73 73 NW 5 4119 3900 0 Blue 2
11 PM Sun 74 74 N 5 4285 3900 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Mon 74 74 N 6 4285 3900 0 Blue 3
1 AM Mon 74 74 N 6 4285 3900 0 Blue 3
2 AM Mon 74 74 N 6 4285 3900 0 Blue 3
3 AM Mon 73 73 NW 6 4119 3900 0 Blue 2
4 AM Mon 73 73 N 5 4119 3900 0 Blue 2
5 AM Mon 74 74 N 5 4285 3900 0 Blue 3
6 AM Mon 77 77 N 5 4782 4280 380 Blue 6
7 AM Mon 81 81 N 3 5720 4939 1039 Blue 10
8 AM Mon 84 85 N 2 6439 6040 2140 Blue 14
9 AM Mon 85 87 NW 2 8479 6298 2398 Blue 15
10 AM Mon 86 90 W 3 9511 8366 4466 Blue 18
11 AM Mon 86 92 W 6 10510 9171 5271 Blue 20
12 Noon Mon 87 94 W 7 11246 9882 5982 Blue 22
1 PM Mon 89 96 W 8 11758 10797 6897 White 24
2 PM Mon 90 97 W 10 11969 11164 7264 White 25
3 PM Mon 90 96 W 9 11758 10797 6897 White 24
4 PM Mon 91 95 W 9 11542 10413 6513 Blue 23
5 PM Mon 89 91 W 8 9994 8923 5023 Blue 19
6 PM Mon 86 87 W 7 8479 6298 2398 Blue 15
7 PM Mon 83 83 W 5 6180 5307 1407 Blue 12
8 PM Mon 80 80 W 3 5330 4775 875 Blue 9
9 PM Mon 78 78 W 3 4947 4445 545 Blue 7
10 PM Mon 78 78 NW 5 4947 4445 545 Blue 7
11 PM Mon 78 78 NW 5 4947 4445 545 Blue 7
12 Midnight Tue 79 79 NW 6 5122 4610 710 Blue 8
1 AM Tue 80 80 N 7 5330 4775 875 Blue 9
2 AM Tue 80 80 N 8 5330 4775 875 Blue 9
3 AM Tue 79 79 N 7 5122 4610 710 Blue 8
4 AM Tue 79 79 N 7 5122 4610 710 Blue 8
5 AM Tue 80 80 N 6 5330 4775 875 Blue 9
6 AM Tue 83 83 N 6 6180 5307 1407 Blue 12
7 AM Tue 87 87 N 6 8479 6298 2398 Blue 15
8 AM Tue 90 91 NW 3 9994 8923 5023 Blue 19
9 AM Tue 92 94 NW 3 11246 9882 5982 Blue 22
10 AM Tue 94 98 NW 3 12176 11465 7565 White 26
11 AM Tue 94 100 W 8 12589 12589 8689 White 28
12 Noon Tue 94 101 W 8 12795 12795 8895 White 29
1 PM Tue 95 102 W 8 13000 13000 9100 White 30
2 PM Tue 95 102 W 10 13000 13000 9100 White 30
3 PM Tue 96 101 W 10 12795 12795 8895 White 29
4 PM Tue 96 100 W 10 12589 12589 8689 White 28
5 PM Tue 95 97 W 12 11969 11164 7264 White 25
6 PM Tue 92 93 W 12 10885 9450 5550 Blue 21
7 PM Tue 88 88 W 12 8967 6427 2527 Blue 16
8 PM Tue 84 84 W 5 6310 5692 1792 Blue 13
9 PM Tue 84 84 W 5 6310 5692 1792 Blue 13
10 PM Tue 84 84 W 5 6310 5692 1792 Blue 13
11 PM Tue 85 85 NW 5 6439 6040 2140 Blue 14
12 Midnight Wed 85 85 NW 5 6439 6040 2140 Blue 14
1 AM Wed 84 84 NW 5 6310 5692 1792 Blue 13
2 AM Wed 83 83 NW 8 6180 5307 1407 Blue 12
3 AM Wed 82 82 NW 8 6051 5112 1212 Blue 11
4 AM Wed 81 81 NW 8 5720 4939 1039 Blue 10
5 AM Wed 82 82 N 6 6051 5112 1212 Blue 11
6 AM Wed 84 84 N 6 6310 5692 1792 Blue 13
7 AM Wed 87 87 N 6 8479 6298 2398 Blue 15
8 AM Wed 89 90 NW 5 9511 8366 4466 Blue 18
9 AM Wed 90 92 NW 5 10510 9171 5271 Blue 20
10 AM Wed 90 94 NW 5 11246 9882 5982 Blue 22
11 AM Wed 90 96 W 9 11758 10797 6897 White 24
12 Noon Wed 92 99 W 9 12382 11756 7856 White 27
1 PM Wed 94 101 W 9 12795 12795 8895 White 29
2 PM Wed 95 102 W 12 13000 13000 9100 White 30
3 PM Wed 94 100 W 12 12589 12589 8689 White 28
4 PM Wed 93 97 W 12 11969 11164 7264 White 25
5 PM Wed 91 93 W 9 10885 9450 5550 Blue 21
6 PM Wed 89 90 W 9 9511 8366 4466 Blue 18
7 PM Wed 88 88 W 9 8967 6427 2527 Blue 16
8 PM Wed 86 86 W 5 7732 6169 2269 Blue 15
9 PM Wed 85 85 W 5 6439 6040 2140 Blue 14
10 PM Wed 84 84 W 5 6310 5692 1792 Blue 13
11 PM Wed 83 83 NW 3 6180 5307 1407 Blue 12
12 Midnight Thu 82 82 NW 3 6051 5112 1212 Blue 11
1 AM Thu 82 82 NW 3 6051 5112 1212 Blue 11
2 AM Thu 81 81 N 5 5720 4939 1039 Blue 10
3 AM Thu 80 80 N 5 5330 4775 875 Blue 9
4 AM Thu 79 79 N 5 5122 4610 710 Blue 8
5 AM Thu 79 79 NW 3 5122 4610 710 Blue 8
6 AM Thu 80 80 NW 3 5330 4775 875 Blue 9
7 AM Thu 82 82 NW 3 6051 5112 1212 Blue 11
8 AM Thu 85 86 W 3 7732 6169 2269 Blue 15
9 AM Thu 87 90 W 3 9511 8366 4466 Blue 18
10 AM Thu 89 93 W 3 10885 9450 5550 Blue 21
11 AM Thu 90 96 W 9 11758 10797 6897 White 24
12 Noon Thu 91 98 W 9 12176 11465 7565 White 26
1 PM Thu 92 100 W 9 12589 12589 8689 White 28
2 PM Thu 92 99 W 12 12382 11756 7856 White 27
3 PM Thu 91 97 W 12 11969 11164 7264 White 25
4 PM Thu 89 93 W 12 10885 9450 5550 Blue 21
5 PM Thu 86 88 W 9 8967 6427 2527 Blue 16
6 PM Thu 84 85 W 9 6439 6040 2140 Blue 14
7 PM Thu 81 81 W 9 5720 4939 1039 Blue 10
8 PM Thu 79 79 W 5 5122 4610 710 Blue 8
9 PM Thu 77 77 W 5 4782 4280 380 Blue 6
10 PM Thu 76 76 W 5 4616 4115 215 Blue 5
11 PM Thu 75 75 SW 2 4451 3950 50 Blue 4
12 Midnight Fri 74 74 SW 2 4285 3900 0 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 74 74 SW 2 4285 3900 0 Blue 3
2 AM Fri 74 74 SW 2 4285 3900 0 Blue 3
3 AM Fri 73 73 SW 2 4119 3900 0 Blue 2
4 AM Fri 73 73 SW 2 4119 3900 0 Blue 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst