Detailed Predictions for: Big Black
Launch Altitude (f): 3900
LZ Altitude (f): 1645
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

26 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 52 52 N 2 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 54 54 N 2 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 53 53 N 2 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 53 53 N 2 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 56 57 N 2 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 56 58 NW 2 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 58 61 W 6 3466 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 61 64 W 7 5184 3900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 62 65 W 8 5658 4031 131 Blue 1
2 PM Tue 63 66 W 9 5969 4579 679 Blue 2
3 PM Tue 62 64 W 10 5184 3900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 61 62 W 10 4042 3900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 60 60 W 9 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 57 57 W 8 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 54 54 W 7 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 53 53 W 2 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 54 54 NW 2 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 55 55 NW 3 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 54 54 NW 3 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 54 54 NW 2 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 52 52 NW 2 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 52 52 NW 2 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 53 53 NW 2 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 53 53 NW 2 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 51 51 NW 3 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 52 52 NW 2 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 52 52 NW 2 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 52 52 NW 3 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 53 54 W 5 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 53 54 W 6 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 54 56 W 8 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 55 58 W 9 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 56 59 W 12 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 56 59 W 13 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 55 57 W 13 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 55 56 W 13 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 54 54 W 13 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 52 52 W 12 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 50 50 W 9 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 50 50 W 7 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 50 50 W 6 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 51 51 W 6 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 50 50 W 6 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 50 50 W 6 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 49 49 NW 6 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 48 48 NW 7 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 49 49 W 7 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 49 49 W 7 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 48 48 W 7 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 49 49 W 7 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 49 49 W 8 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 49 49 NW 8 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 50 50 W 9 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 50 51 W 10 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 52 56 W 12 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 53 58 W 13 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 54 59 W 14 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 54 59 W 15 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 53 57 W 15 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 52 54 W 15 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 52 53 W 14 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 50 50 W 12 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 47 47 W 9 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 47 47 W 8 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 47 47 W 7 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 48 48 W 7 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 48 48 W 7 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 47 47 W 7 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 46 46 W 7 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 45 45 W 7 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 46 46 NW 7 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 46 46 NW 8 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 45 45 NW 8 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 47 47 NW 8 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 46 46 NW 8 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 47 47 N 8 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 50 51 N 8 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 50 53 N 8 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 53 57 NW 7 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 56 61 NW 7 3466 3900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 58 63 NW 7 4599 3900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 60 65 W 10 5658 4031 131 Blue 1
3 PM Fri 58 62 W 10 4042 3900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 57 59 W 10 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 57 58 W 10 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 54 54 W 10 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 51 51 W 10 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 51 51 W 6 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 51 51 W 6 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 52 52 W 6 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 52 52 NW 5 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 51 51 NW 5 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 50 50 NW 5 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 49 49 NW 6 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 50 50 NW 6 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 51 51 NW 6 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 49 49 N 8 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 52 52 N 8 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 50 50 N 8 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 51 51 NE 17 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 54 55 NE 17 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 54 57 NE 17 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 58 63 N 12 4599 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 60 66 N 12 5969 4579 679 Blue 2
1 PM Sat 62 68 N 12 6582 5636 1736 Blue 4
2 PM Sat 65 70 N 8 7877 6248 2348 Blue 6
3 PM Sat 62 66 N 8 5969 4579 679 Blue 2
4 PM Sat 61 63 N 8 4599 3900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 60 61 NW 13 3466 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 56 56 NW 13 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 52 52 NW 13 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 52 52 N 8 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 52 52 N 8 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 54 54 N 8 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 53 53 N 14 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 52 52 N 14 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 51 51 N 14 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 50 50 NE 17 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 51 51 NE 17 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 51 51 NE 17 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 49 49 NE 18 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 52 52 NE 18 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 50 50 NE 18 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 51 51 NE 18 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 54 56 NE 18 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 55 58 NE 18 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 58 63 NE 13 4599 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 61 67 NE 13 6276 5148 1248 Blue 3
1 PM Sun 63 69 NE 13 6924 5944 2044 Blue 5
2 PM Sun 66 72 NE 13 8870 6879 2979 Blue 8
3 PM Sun 63 67 NE 13 6276 5148 1248 Blue 3
4 PM Sun 62 65 NE 13 5658 4031 131 Blue 1
5 PM Sun 62 63 W 10 4599 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 57 57 W 10 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 53 53 W 10 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 53 53 SE 5 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 54 54 SE 5 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 55 55 SE 5 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 54 54 N 8 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 54 54 N 8 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 52 52 N 8 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 51 51 NE 8 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 52 52 NE 8 3268 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 52 52 NE 8 3268 3900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst