Detailed Predictions for: Big Black
Launch Altitude (f): 3900
LZ Altitude (f): 1645
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue -999 -999 - 2530 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue -999 -999 - 2530 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 71 71 NW 3 3111 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 75 75 NW 2 4193 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 76 78 NW 2 5024 4187 287 Blue 1
10 AM Tue 76 79 W 2 5265 4452 552 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 76 81 W 7 5758 5012 1112 Blue 4
12 Noon Tue 77 83 W 8 6809 5490 1590 Blue 6
1 PM Tue 76 83 W 8 6809 5490 1590 Blue 6
2 PM Tue 77 83 W 10 6809 5490 1590 Blue 6
3 PM Tue 76 81 W 10 5758 5012 1112 Blue 4
4 PM Tue 74 77 W 10 4726 3920 20 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 72 73 W 9 3655 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 67 67 W 8 2530 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 64 64 W 6 2530 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 64 64 W 1 2530 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 64 64 W 1 2530 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 64 64 W 1 2530 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 64 64 SW 1 2530 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 64 64 S 1 2530 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 65 65 S 1 2530 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 65 65 N 2 2530 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 66 66 N 2 2530 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 67 67 N 1 2530 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 64 64 N 1 2530 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 66 66 N 1 2530 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 65 65 N 1 2530 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 72 72 N 3 3383 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 74 76 N 2 4460 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 74 77 NW 2 4726 3920 20 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 74 79 W 6 5265 4452 552 Blue 2
12 Noon Wed 75 81 W 7 5758 5012 1112 Blue 4
1 PM Wed 75 81 W 7 5758 5012 1112 Blue 4
2 PM Wed 76 82 W 10 6291 5251 1351 Blue 5
3 PM Wed 75 79 W 12 5265 4452 552 Blue 2
4 PM Wed 74 77 W 10 4726 3920 20 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 73 74 W 8 3925 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 69 69 W 7 2561 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 67 67 W 5 2530 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 67 67 N 5 2530 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 67 67 N 5 2530 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 67 67 N 5 2530 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 67 67 NE 3 2530 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 68 68 NE 3 2530 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 68 68 NE 5 2530 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 68 68 E 6 2530 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 69 69 E 6 2561 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 70 70 E 6 2836 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 68 68 E 7 2530 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 69 69 E 8 2561 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 68 68 E 9 2530 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 76 76 E 15 4460 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 78 79 E 16 5265 4452 552 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 78 81 E 15 5758 5012 1112 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 78 82 E 13 6291 5251 1351 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 79 84 E 12 7146 5728 1828 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 79 85 SE 10 7324 6245 2345 Blue 8
2 PM Thu 80 85 S 6 7324 6245 2345 Blue 8
3 PM Thu 79 83 SW 6 6809 5490 1590 Blue 6
4 PM Thu 78 80 W 6 5506 4716 816 Blue 3
5 PM Thu 76 77 W 5 4726 3920 20 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 71 71 W 3 3111 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 69 69 NW 1 2561 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 69 69 E 2 2561 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 69 69 E 2 2561 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 69 69 E 3 2561 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 69 69 SE 3 2561 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 69 69 SE 5 2561 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 70 70 S 5 2836 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 69 69 S 6 2561 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 70 70 S 6 2836 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 71 71 S 3 3111 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 69 69 S 2 2561 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 70 70 S 2 2836 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 70 70 S 2 2836 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 74 74 E 0 3925 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 76 78 E 0 5024 4187 287 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 76 79 E 0 5265 4452 552 Blue 2
11 AM Fri 76 80 W 7 5506 4716 816 Blue 3
12 Noon Fri 77 82 W 7 6291 5251 1351 Blue 5
1 PM Fri 77 83 W 7 6809 5490 1590 Blue 6
2 PM Fri 77 82 W 10 6291 5251 1351 Blue 5
3 PM Fri 76 80 W 10 5506 4716 816 Blue 3
4 PM Fri 76 78 W 10 5024 4187 287 Blue 1
5 PM Fri 74 75 W 7 4193 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 71 71 W 7 3111 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 69 69 W 7 2561 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 69 69 N 2 2561 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 69 69 N 2 2561 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 69 69 N 2 2561 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 69 69 NW 3 2561 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 69 69 NW 3 2561 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 70 70 NW 3 2836 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 70 70 N 5 2836 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 70 70 N 5 2836 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 71 71 N 5 3111 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 69 69 N 3 2561 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 71 71 N 3 3111 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 70 70 N 3 2836 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 76 76 E 2 4460 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 78 80 E 2 5506 4716 816 Blue 3
10 AM Sat 77 80 E 2 5506 4716 816 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 78 83 SW 5 6809 5490 1590 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 78 84 SW 5 7146 5728 1828 Blue 7
1 PM Sat 79 85 SW 5 7324 6245 2345 Blue 8
2 PM Sat 79 85 W 10 7324 6245 2345 Blue 8
3 PM Sat 78 82 W 10 6291 5251 1351 Blue 5
4 PM Sat 77 80 W 10 5506 4716 816 Blue 3
5 PM Sat 75 76 W 7 4460 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 70 70 W 7 2836 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 68 68 W 7 2530 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 68 68 NW 2 2530 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 68 68 NW 2 2530 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 68 68 NW 2 2530 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 68 68 N 3 2530 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 68 68 N 3 2530 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 69 69 N 3 2561 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 69 69 N 3 2561 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 70 70 N 3 2836 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 71 71 N 3 3111 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 68 68 N 5 2530 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 70 70 N 5 2836 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 69 69 N 5 2561 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 76 76 N 3 4460 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 78 80 N 3 5506 4716 816 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 78 81 N 3 5758 5012 1112 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 78 83 W 6 6809 5490 1590 Blue 6
12 Noon Sun 79 85 W 6 7324 6245 2345 Blue 8
1 PM Sun 80 86 W 6 7501 6756 2856 Blue 9
2 PM Sun 80 86 W 13 7501 6756 2856 Blue 9
3 PM Sun 79 83 W 13 6809 5490 1590 Blue 6
4 PM Sun 78 81 W 13 5758 5012 1112 Blue 4
5 PM Sun 76 77 W 9 4726 3920 20 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 71 71 W 9 3111 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 68 68 W 9 2530 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 68 68 NW 5 2530 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 68 68 NW 5 2530 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 68 68 NW 5 2530 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 68 68 N 6 2530 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 68 68 N 6 2530 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 69 69 N 6 2561 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 68 68 N 7 2530 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 70 70 N 7 2836 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 70 70 N 7 2836 3900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst