Detailed Predictions for: Big Black
Launch Altitude (f): 3900
LZ Altitude (f): 1645
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

22 MAY 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 44 44 SW 2 3775 3900 0 White 0
6 AM Tue 44 44 SW 2 3775 3900 0 White 0
7 AM Tue 44 44 SW 2 3775 3900 0 White 0
8 AM Tue 48 48 W 2 4666 4536 636 White 3
9 AM Tue 50 50 W 2 4710 4658 758 Blue 5
10 AM Tue 52 52 W 3 4744 4692 792 Blue 7
11 AM Tue 55 58 W 6 5033 4798 898 Blue 13
12 Noon Tue 57 61 W 6 6259 5026 1126 Blue 16
1 PM Tue 58 62 W 7 6367 5249 1349 Blue 17
2 PM Tue 58 62 W 8 6367 5249 1349 Blue 17
3 PM Tue 59 62 W 8 6367 5249 1349 Blue 17
4 PM Tue 58 60 W 8 5603 4908 1008 Blue 15
5 PM Tue 58 58 W 8 5033 4798 898 Blue 13
6 PM Tue 55 55 W 7 4799 4743 843 Blue 10
7 PM Tue 54 54 W 7 4780 4726 826 Blue 9
8 PM Tue 52 52 W 3 4744 4692 792 Blue 7
9 PM Tue 51 51 W 3 4727 4675 775 Blue 6
10 PM Tue 50 50 W 2 4710 4658 758 Blue 5
11 PM Tue 50 50 W 1 4710 4658 758 Blue 5
12 Midnight Wed 49 49 W 1 4693 4615 715 Blue 4
1 AM Wed 49 49 SW 1 4693 4615 715 Blue 4
2 AM Wed 48 48 NW 1 4666 4536 636 White 3
3 AM Wed 49 49 NW 1 4693 4615 715 Blue 4
4 AM Wed 48 48 NW 1 4666 4536 636 White 3
5 AM Wed 48 48 N 1 4666 4536 636 White 3
6 AM Wed 48 48 N 1 4666 4536 636 White 3
7 AM Wed 48 48 NW 1 4666 4536 636 White 3
8 AM Wed 52 52 NW 2 4744 4692 792 Blue 7
9 AM Wed 54 55 NW 3 4799 4743 843 Blue 10
10 AM Wed 57 59 W 3 5268 4817 917 Blue 14
11 AM Wed 60 65 W 5 6691 6357 2457 Blue 20
12 Noon Wed 62 67 W 6 7442 6572 2672 Blue 22
1 PM Wed 63 69 W 7 7794 7021 3121 Blue 24
2 PM Wed 63 68 W 8 7562 6679 2779 Blue 23
3 PM Wed 64 68 W 8 7562 6679 2779 Blue 23
4 PM Wed 63 66 W 8 7089 6464 2564 Blue 21
5 PM Wed 62 63 W 7 6475 5552 1652 Blue 18
6 PM Wed 59 59 W 7 5268 4817 917 Blue 14
7 PM Wed 56 56 W 6 4818 4760 860 Blue 11
8 PM Wed 54 54 NW 2 4780 4726 826 Blue 9
9 PM Wed 53 53 NW 1 4761 4709 809 Blue 8
10 PM Wed 52 52 W 1 4744 4692 792 Blue 7
11 PM Wed 51 51 W 1 4727 4675 775 Blue 6
12 Midnight Thu 51 51 W 1 4727 4675 775 Blue 6
1 AM Thu 50 50 SW 1 4710 4658 758 Blue 5
2 AM Thu 49 49 SW 1 4693 4615 715 Blue 4
3 AM Thu 50 50 SW 1 4710 4658 758 Blue 5
4 AM Thu 50 50 W 1 4710 4658 758 Blue 5
5 AM Thu 49 49 W 0 4693 4615 715 Blue 4
6 AM Thu 49 49 N 1 4693 4615 715 Blue 4
7 AM Thu 49 49 N 1 4693 4615 715 Blue 4
8 AM Thu 53 54 NW 2 4780 4726 826 Blue 9
9 AM Thu 55 57 NW 2 4913 4779 879 Blue 12
10 AM Thu 57 61 W 3 6259 5026 1126 Blue 16
11 AM Thu 60 66 W 6 7089 6464 2564 Blue 21
12 Noon Thu 62 69 W 6 7794 7021 3121 Blue 24
1 PM Thu 64 72 W 6 9060 7740 3840 Blue 27
2 PM Thu 63 70 W 8 8514 7427 3527 Blue 25
3 PM Thu 64 69 W 9 7794 7021 3121 Blue 24
4 PM Thu 63 67 W 9 7442 6572 2672 Blue 22
5 PM Thu 62 64 W 8 6583 6249 2349 Blue 19
6 PM Thu 59 59 W 8 5268 4817 917 Blue 14
7 PM Thu 56 56 W 6 4818 4760 860 Blue 11
8 PM Thu 54 54 W 3 4780 4726 826 Blue 9
9 PM Thu 53 53 W 3 4761 4709 809 Blue 8
10 PM Thu 52 52 W 2 4744 4692 792 Blue 7
11 PM Thu 51 51 W 2 4727 4675 775 Blue 6
12 Midnight Fri 51 51 W 2 4727 4675 775 Blue 6
1 AM Fri 50 50 W 2 4710 4658 758 Blue 5
2 AM Fri 49 49 NW 2 4693 4615 715 Blue 4
3 AM Fri 50 50 NW 2 4710 4658 758 Blue 5
4 AM Fri 50 50 NW 1 4710 4658 758 Blue 5
5 AM Fri 49 49 W 2 4693 4615 715 Blue 4
6 AM Fri 49 49 W 2 4693 4615 715 Blue 4
7 AM Fri 49 49 W 2 4693 4615 715 Blue 4
8 AM Fri 52 53 W 5 4761 4709 809 Blue 8
9 AM Fri 54 57 W 5 4913 4779 879 Blue 12
10 AM Fri 56 61 W 5 6259 5026 1126 Blue 16
11 AM Fri 58 65 W 9 6691 6357 2457 Blue 20
12 Noon Fri 60 68 W 9 7562 6679 2779 Blue 23
1 PM Fri 62 70 W 9 8514 7427 3527 Blue 25
2 PM Fri 62 69 W 14 7794 7021 3121 Blue 24
3 PM Fri 62 68 W 14 7562 6679 2779 Blue 23
4 PM Fri 61 65 W 14 6691 6357 2457 Blue 20
5 PM Fri 60 62 W 13 6367 5249 1349 Blue 17
6 PM Fri 57 57 W 13 4913 4779 879 Blue 12
7 PM Fri 55 55 W 13 4799 4743 843 Blue 10
8 PM Fri 53 53 W 8 4761 4709 809 Blue 8
9 PM Fri 52 52 W 8 4744 4692 792 Blue 7
10 PM Fri 51 51 W 8 4727 4675 775 Blue 6
11 PM Fri 50 50 W 5 4710 4658 758 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sat 50 50 W 5 4710 4658 758 Blue 5
1 AM Sat 49 49 W 5 4693 4615 715 Blue 4
2 AM Sat 48 48 W 5 4666 4536 636 White 3
3 AM Sat 49 49 W 5 4693 4615 715 Blue 4
4 AM Sat 49 49 W 5 4693 4615 715 Blue 4
5 AM Sat 48 48 NW 3 4666 4536 636 White 3
6 AM Sat 48 48 NW 3 4666 4536 636 White 3
7 AM Sat 48 48 NW 3 4666 4536 636 White 3
8 AM Sat 51 52 W 5 4744 4692 792 Blue 7
9 AM Sat 52 55 W 5 4799 4743 843 Blue 10
10 AM Sat 54 59 W 5 5268 4817 917 Blue 14
11 AM Sat 56 63 W 7 6475 5552 1652 Blue 18
12 Noon Sat 58 66 W 7 7089 6464 2564 Blue 21
1 PM Sat 59 67 W 7 7442 6572 2672 Blue 22
2 PM Sat 59 66 W 12 7089 6464 2564 Blue 21
3 PM Sat 59 65 W 12 6691 6357 2457 Blue 20
4 PM Sat 58 62 W 12 6367 5249 1349 Blue 17
5 PM Sat 58 60 W 10 5603 4908 1008 Blue 15
6 PM Sat 56 56 W 10 4818 4760 860 Blue 11
7 PM Sat 54 54 W 10 4780 4726 826 Blue 9
8 PM Sat 52 52 W 6 4744 4692 792 Blue 7
9 PM Sat 52 52 W 6 4744 4692 792 Blue 7
10 PM Sat 51 51 W 6 4727 4675 775 Blue 6
11 PM Sat 51 51 NW 6 4727 4675 775 Blue 6
12 Midnight Sun 50 50 NW 6 4710 4658 758 Blue 5
1 AM Sun 50 50 NW 6 4710 4658 758 Blue 5
2 AM Sun 49 49 NW 6 4693 4615 715 Blue 4
3 AM Sun 50 50 NW 6 4710 4658 758 Blue 5
4 AM Sun 49 49 NW 6 4693 4615 715 Blue 4
5 AM Sun 49 49 N 6 4693 4615 715 Blue 4
6 AM Sun 49 49 N 6 4693 4615 715 Blue 4
7 AM Sun 49 49 N 6 4693 4615 715 Blue 4
8 AM Sun 54 55 NW 3 4799 4743 843 Blue 10
9 AM Sun 57 60 NW 3 5603 4908 1008 Blue 15
10 AM Sun 60 65 NW 3 6691 6357 2457 Blue 20
11 AM Sun 63 70 W 5 8514 7427 3527 Blue 25
12 Noon Sun 67 75 W 5 9672 9022 5122 Blue 30
1 PM Sun 68 76 W 5 9875 9225 5325 Blue 31
2 PM Sun 69 76 W 9 9875 9225 5325 Blue 31
3 PM Sun 69 74 W 9 9468 8781 4881 Blue 29
4 PM Sun 68 72 W 9 9060 7740 3840 Blue 27
5 PM Sun 67 69 W 8 7794 7021 3121 Blue 24
6 PM Sun 64 64 W 8 6583 6249 2349 Blue 19
7 PM Sun 61 61 W 8 6259 5026 1126 Blue 16
8 PM Sun 59 59 NW 3 5268 4817 917 Blue 14
9 PM Sun 57 57 NW 3 4913 4779 879 Blue 12
10 PM Sun 56 56 NW 3 4818 4760 860 Blue 11
11 PM Sun 56 56 NW 3 4818 4760 860 Blue 11
12 Midnight Mon 55 55 NW 3 4799 4743 843 Blue 10
1 AM Mon 54 54 NW 3 4780 4726 826 Blue 9
2 AM Mon 54 54 N 7 4780 4726 826 Blue 9
3 AM Mon 54 54 N 7 4780 4726 826 Blue 9
4 AM Mon 54 54 N 7 4780 4726 826 Blue 9

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst