Detailed Predictions for: Big Black
Launch Altitude (f): 3900
LZ Altitude (f): 1645
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

25 NOV 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 49 49 E 3 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 48 48 NE 3 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 48 48 NE 2 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 49 49 E 2 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 51 51 E 2 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 54 55 S 2 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 56 58 SW 5 3642 3900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 58 61 SW 6 4584 3900 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 57 60 SW 7 3942 3900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 57 59 W 8 3792 3900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 56 57 W 9 3493 3900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 54 54 W 8 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 52 52 W 7 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 51 51 W 6 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 50 50 W 3 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 50 50 W 2 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 49 49 W 2 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 48 48 W 2 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 48 48 W 3 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 47 47 W 3 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 46 46 W 3 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 45 45 W 2 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 45 45 NW 2 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 44 44 N 1 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 44 44 NE 1 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 44 44 N 2 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 44 44 N 3 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 45 45 N 3 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 47 47 NE 3 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 50 51 SE 2 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 52 54 S 1 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 54 56 S 0 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 56 59 S 1 3792 3900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 55 57 SE 2 3493 3900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 56 57 SE 3 3493 3900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 55 55 E 7 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 54 54 NE 10 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 52 52 NE 14 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 51 51 NE 18 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 49 49 NE 22 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 48 48 NE 24 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 47 47 NE 25 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 46 46 NE 25 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 46 46 NE 25 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 45 45 NE 25 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 44 44 NE 25 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 44 44 NE 25 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 44 44 NE 26 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 44 44 NE 26 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 45 45 NE 25 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 46 46 NE 24 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 47 47 NE 23 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 49 49 E 22 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 50 51 E 21 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 52 54 E 18 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 54 57 E 14 3493 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 55 58 NE 10 3642 3900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 55 57 NE 7 3493 3900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 55 56 NE 5 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 53 53 E 5 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 50 50 E 5 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 49 49 E 7 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 48 48 E 10 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 47 47 E 13 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 47 47 E 15 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 47 47 E 15 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 48 48 E 16 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 49 49 E 17 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 49 49 E 17 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 50 50 E 17 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 51 51 E 17 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 51 51 E 16 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 51 51 E 16 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 50 50 E 16 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 50 50 E 16 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 50 50 E 15 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 52 52 E 15 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 54 55 E 15 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 55 57 E 14 3493 3900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 57 60 E 14 3942 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 58 61 E 14 4584 3900 0 Blue 1
1 PM Sat 59 61 E 13 4584 3900 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sat 58 59 E 13 3792 3900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 58 58 E 13 3642 3900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 57 57 NE 9 3493 3900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 56 56 NE 9 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 54 54 NE 9 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 53 53 E 9 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 51 51 E 9 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 50 50 E 9 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 49 49 E 9 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 48 48 E 9 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 47 47 E 9 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 47 47 SE 8 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 47 47 SE 8 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 48 48 SE 8 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 48 48 SE 6 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 49 49 SE 6 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 49 49 SE 6 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 50 50 E 8 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 52 52 E 8 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 54 55 E 8 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 57 59 E 7 3792 3900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 60 62 E 7 5693 3900 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sun 62 64 E 7 7130 4555 655 Blue 4
1 PM Sun 62 64 E 6 7130 4555 655 Blue 4
2 PM Sun 62 63 E 6 6896 3940 40 Blue 3
3 PM Sun 61 61 E 6 4584 3900 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sun 60 60 W 5 3942 3900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 58 58 W 5 3642 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 57 57 W 5 3493 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 56 56 NE 3 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 56 56 NE 3 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 56 56 NE 3 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 56 56 E 6 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 54 54 E 6 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 53 53 E 6 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 51 51 E 7 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 50 50 E 7 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 50 50 E 7 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 50 50 E 5 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 51 51 E 5 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 53 53 E 5 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 55 55 SE 8 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 57 57 SE 8 3493 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 60 60 SE 8 3942 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 62 63 SE 6 6896 3940 40 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 64 65 SE 6 7308 5600 1700 Blue 5
12 Noon Mon 63 64 SE 6 7130 4555 655 Blue 4
1 PM Mon 64 65 SW 8 7308 5600 1700 Blue 5
2 PM Mon 63 64 SW 8 7130 4555 655 Blue 4
3 PM Mon 62 62 SW 8 5693 3900 0 Blue 2
4 PM Mon 61 61 W 7 4584 3900 0 Blue 1
5 PM Mon 59 59 W 7 3792 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 58 58 W 7 3642 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 56 56 W 3 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 56 56 W 3 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 55 55 W 3 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 54 54 W 3 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 53 53 W 3 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 52 52 W 3 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 50 50 SW 3 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 50 50 SW 3 3366 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 49 49 SW 3 3366 3900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst