Detailed Predictions for: Big Black
Launch Altitude (f): 3900
LZ Altitude (f): 1645
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Thu 50 50 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 51 51 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 50 50 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 50 50 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 50 50 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 52 52 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 52 52 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 52 52 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 53 53 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 52 52 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 52 52 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 52 52 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 51 51 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 48 48 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 48 48 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 47 47 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 47 47 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 48 48 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 47 47 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 46 46 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 47 47 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 47 47 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 47 47 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 48 48 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 46 46 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 49 49 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 47 47 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 46 46 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 48 48 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 53 53 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 54 55 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 55 57 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 57 59 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 57 59 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 58 59 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 57 57 W 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 56 56 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 54 54 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 53 53 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 53 53 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 53 53 NE 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 53 53 NE 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 53 53 NE 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 52 52 NE 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 53 53 NE 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 53 53 NE 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 53 53 NE 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 53 53 NE 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 52 52 NE 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 55 55 NE 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 53 53 NE 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 52 52 NE 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 55 55 NE 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 61 62 E 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 62 64 E 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 64 66 E 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 66 69 E 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 66 68 E 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 66 67 E 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 65 66 E 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 64 64 E 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 59 59 E 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 58 58 E 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 57 57 E 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 58 58 E 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 58 58 E 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 58 58 E 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 57 57 E 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 58 58 E 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 58 58 SE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 58 58 SE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 58 58 SE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 56 56 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 59 59 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 57 57 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 56 56 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 58 58 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 63 63 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 64 65 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 65 66 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 67 68 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 68 69 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 66 67 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 65 65 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 62 62 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 56 56 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 55 55 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 53 53 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 54 54 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 55 55 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 54 54 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 52 52 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 54 54 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 54 54 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 54 54 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 55 55 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 51 51 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 53 53 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 52 52 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 51 51 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 52 52 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 55 55 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 56 58 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 56 58 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 58 61 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 58 60 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 57 59 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 56 57 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 54 54 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 50 50 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 49 49 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 48 48 NE 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 49 49 NE 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 49 49 NE 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 49 49 NE 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 48 48 NE 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 49 49 NE 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 49 49 NE 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 49 49 NE 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 49 49 NE 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 47 47 E 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 49 49 E 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 48 48 E 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 47 47 E 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 49 49 E 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 52 53 E 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 53 55 E 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 54 56 E 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 56 59 E 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 56 58 E 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 55 57 E 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 55 56 E 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 53 53 E 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 50 50 E 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 50 50 E 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 49 49 E 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 50 50 E 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 50 50 E 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 49 49 E 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 48 48 E 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 50 50 E 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 49 49 E 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 50 50 E 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 50 50 E 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst