Detailed Predictions for: Big Black
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.1559626015, -116.809663372, 3900
LZ Altitude (f): 1645
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

27 FEB 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 52 52 SSE 1 3 3641 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 48 48 SSE 1 3 2828 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 45 45 S 1 3 2497 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 44 44 S 1 3 2497 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 43 43 S 1 2 2497 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 43 43 SSW 1 2 2497 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 44 44 SSE 1 2 2497 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 45 45 SE 1 3 2497 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 46 47 E 1 3 2623 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 51 53 SSE 2 4 3844 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 55 59 SSW 4 5 5154 4445 545 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 60 65 W 5 5 7087 6110 2210 Blue 7
12 Noon Sat 62 67 W 5 6 8981 6743 2843 Blue 9
1 PM Sat 63 68 WSW 6 7 9848 7055 3155 Blue 10
2 PM Sat 65 68 WSW 7 8 9848 7055 3155 Blue 10
3 PM Sat 64 66 WSW 7 8 8021 6428 2528 Blue 8
4 PM Sat 64 64 WSW 8 9 6772 5790 1890 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 63 63 WSW 8 10 6454 5467 1567 Blue 5
6 PM Sat 62 62 SW 6 7 6133 5141 1241 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 61 61 SW 3 4 5810 4841 941 Blue 3
8 PM Sat 60 60 SSW 0 1 5483 4644 744 Blue 2
9 PM Sat 58 58 S 1 3 4847 4245 345 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 56 56 SE 2 4 4448 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 54 54 ESE 2 5 4046 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 52 52 E 3 7 3641 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 50 50 E 4 9 3235 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 48 48 ENE 5 11 2828 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 48 48 ENE 6 14 2828 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 48 48 ENE 8 17 2828 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 47 47 ENE 9 19 2623 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 47 47 ENE 10 20 2623 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 47 47 ENE 10 21 2623 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 47 48 ENE 11 21 2828 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 51 53 ENE 12 19 3844 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 55 59 ENE 13 17 5154 4445 545 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 59 64 ENE 13 15 6772 5790 1890 Blue 6
12 Noon Sun 60 65 ENE 13 15 7087 6110 2210 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 61 65 ENE 13 15 7087 6110 2210 Blue 7
2 PM Sun 63 66 ENE 13 15 8021 6428 2528 Blue 8
3 PM Sun 62 64 ENE 13 15 6772 5790 1890 Blue 6
4 PM Sun 62 62 ENE 12 14 6133 5141 1241 Blue 4
5 PM Sun 61 61 ENE 12 14 5810 4841 941 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 60 60 ENE 11 17 5483 4644 744 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 59 59 ENE 11 19 5154 4445 545 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 58 58 ENE 10 22 4847 4245 345 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 56 56 ENE 10 21 4448 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 54 54 ENE 9 19 4046 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 52 52 ENE 8 17 3641 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 50 50 ENE 8 17 3235 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 47 47 ENE 7 16 2623 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 45 45 ENE 7 15 2497 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 45 45 ENE 7 16 2497 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 44 44 ENE 7 16 2497 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 44 44 ENE 7 16 2497 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 45 45 ENE 8 16 2497 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 45 45 ENE 8 17 2497 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 46 47 ENE 8 17 2623 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 51 53 ENE 8 15 3844 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 57 61 E 8 12 5810 4841 941 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 62 67 E 8 9 8981 6743 2843 Blue 9
12 Noon Mon 64 69 E 7 8 10587 7888 3988 Blue 11
1 PM Mon 66 71 E 6 7 11902 9689 5789 Blue 13
2 PM Mon 67 70 E 5 6 11262 8833 4933 Blue 12
3 PM Mon 66 68 SSE 5 6 9848 7055 3155 Blue 10
4 PM Mon 66 66 WSW 5 5 8021 6428 2528 Blue 8
5 PM Mon 65 65 NNW 4 5 7087 6110 2210 Blue 7
6 PM Mon 63 63 WSW 4 5 6454 5467 1567 Blue 5
7 PM Mon 61 61 SSE 2 4 5810 4841 941 Blue 3
8 PM Mon 59 59 ENE 2 4 5154 4445 545 Blue 1
9 PM Mon 57 57 ENE 2 4 4649 4045 145 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 54 54 ENE 2 5 4046 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 52 52 ENE 3 6 3641 3900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst