Detailed Predictions for: Big Black
Launch Altitude (f): 3900
LZ Altitude (f): 1645
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

19 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sun 53 53 E 7 3140 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 52 52 NE 6 3140 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 51 51 NE 6 3140 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 52 52 NE 5 3140 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 55 55 E 3 3140 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 60 61 S 2 3140 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 64 66 SW 2 5962 4521 621 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 66 69 SW 2 6158 5957 2057 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 66 69 W 3 6158 5957 2057 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 66 68 W 6 6093 5512 1612 Blue 6
2 PM Sun 64 65 W 5 5582 4006 106 Blue 3
3 PM Sun 62 62 W 5 4023 3900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 59 59 W 5 3140 3900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 57 57 NW 5 3140 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 56 56 N 5 3140 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 55 55 NE 5 3140 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 54 54 NE 5 3140 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 53 53 NE 3 3140 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 52 52 NE 3 3140 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 51 51 NE 3 3140 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 50 50 N 3 3140 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 50 50 N 3 3140 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 49 49 N 3 3140 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 49 49 N 5 3140 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 49 49 N 5 3140 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 50 50 N 5 3140 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 52 52 N 5 3140 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 55 55 N 5 3140 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 59 59 NE 3 3140 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 63 64 N 2 4782 3900 0 Blue 2
10 AM Mon 66 67 W 2 6028 4771 871 Blue 5
11 AM Mon 68 70 W 3 6238 6022 2122 Blue 8
12 Noon Mon 68 70 W 5 6238 6022 2122 Blue 8
1 PM Mon 68 69 W 7 6158 5957 2057 Blue 7
2 PM Mon 66 67 W 7 6028 4771 871 Blue 5
3 PM Mon 64 64 W 7 4782 3900 0 Blue 2
4 PM Mon 61 61 W 5 3140 3900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 59 59 NW 2 3140 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 58 58 N 2 3140 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 58 58 N 5 3140 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 59 59 N 5 3140 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 61 61 NE 5 3140 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 62 62 NE 7 4023 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 63 63 E 8 4530 3900 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Tue 64 64 E 9 4782 3900 0 Blue 2
1 AM Tue 64 64 E 10 4782 3900 0 Blue 2
2 AM Tue 65 65 E 10 5582 4006 106 Blue 3
3 AM Tue 65 65 E 10 5582 4006 106 Blue 3
4 AM Tue 66 66 E 10 5962 4521 621 Blue 4
5 AM Tue 66 66 NE 12 5962 4521 621 Blue 4
6 AM Tue 67 67 NE 12 6028 4771 871 Blue 5
7 AM Tue 68 68 NE 13 6093 5512 1612 Blue 6
8 AM Tue 70 70 E 14 6238 6022 2122 Blue 8
9 AM Tue 72 73 E 14 6578 6230 2330 Blue 10
10 AM Tue 74 76 E 13 8143 6564 2664 Blue 13
11 AM Tue 76 78 E 12 8719 7586 3686 Blue 15
12 Noon Tue 77 79 E 12 9005 8099 4199 Blue 16
1 PM Tue 76 78 E 12 8719 7586 3686 Blue 15
2 PM Tue 76 77 E 13 8432 6973 3073 Blue 14
3 PM Tue 73 73 E 13 6578 6230 2330 Blue 10
4 PM Tue 70 70 E 15 6238 6022 2122 Blue 8
5 PM Tue 68 68 E 15 6093 5512 1612 Blue 6
6 PM Tue 66 66 E 14 5962 4521 621 Blue 4
7 PM Tue 68 68 E 16 6093 5512 1612 Blue 6
8 PM Tue 71 71 E 16 6329 6087 2187 Blue 8
9 PM Tue 74 74 E 16 7046 6321 2421 Blue 11
10 PM Tue 75 75 E 17 7668 6424 2524 Blue 12
11 PM Tue 72 72 E 18 6437 6152 2252 Blue 9
12 Midnight Wed 67 67 E 17 6028 4771 871 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 64 64 E 17 4782 3900 0 Blue 2
2 AM Wed 64 64 E 17 4782 3900 0 Blue 2
3 AM Wed 65 65 E 18 5582 4006 106 Blue 3
4 AM Wed 66 66 E 15 5962 4521 621 Blue 4
5 AM Wed 66 66 E 15 5962 4521 621 Blue 4
6 AM Wed 67 67 E 15 6028 4771 871 Blue 5
7 AM Wed 68 68 E 17 6093 5512 1612 Blue 6
8 AM Wed 71 71 E 17 6329 6087 2187 Blue 8
9 AM Wed 73 74 E 17 7046 6321 2421 Blue 11
10 AM Wed 76 78 E 15 8719 7586 3686 Blue 15
11 AM Wed 78 81 E 15 9739 8671 4771 Blue 18
12 Noon Wed 80 83 E 15 10877 9234 5334 Blue 20
1 PM Wed 80 82 E 13 10308 8953 5053 Blue 19
2 PM Wed 80 82 E 13 10308 8953 5053 Blue 19
3 PM Wed 79 79 E 13 9005 8099 4199 Blue 16
4 PM Wed 77 77 E 12 8432 6973 3073 Blue 14
5 PM Wed 76 76 E 12 8143 6564 2664 Blue 13
6 PM Wed 74 74 E 12 7046 6321 2421 Blue 11
7 PM Wed 72 72 E 12 6437 6152 2252 Blue 9
8 PM Wed 71 71 E 12 6329 6087 2187 Blue 8
9 PM Wed 70 70 E 12 6238 6022 2122 Blue 8
10 PM Wed 68 68 E 9 6093 5512 1612 Blue 6
11 PM Wed 67 67 E 9 6028 4771 871 Blue 5
12 Midnight Thu 66 66 E 9 5962 4521 621 Blue 4
1 AM Thu 65 65 E 7 5582 4006 106 Blue 3
2 AM Thu 65 65 E 7 5582 4006 106 Blue 3
3 AM Thu 65 65 E 7 5582 4006 106 Blue 3
4 AM Thu 66 66 E 9 5962 4521 621 Blue 4
5 AM Thu 66 66 E 9 5962 4521 621 Blue 4
6 AM Thu 67 67 E 9 6028 4771 871 Blue 5
7 AM Thu 69 69 E 9 6158 5957 2057 Blue 7
8 AM Thu 73 73 E 9 6578 6230 2330 Blue 10
9 AM Thu 76 77 E 9 8432 6973 3073 Blue 14
10 AM Thu 79 81 E 6 9739 8671 4771 Blue 18
11 AM Thu 80 83 E 6 10877 9234 5334 Blue 20
12 Noon Thu 80 83 E 6 10877 9234 5334 Blue 20
1 PM Thu 79 81 S 1 9739 8671 4771 Blue 18
2 PM Thu 78 79 S 1 9005 8099 4199 Blue 16
3 PM Thu 76 76 S 1 8143 6564 2664 Blue 13
4 PM Thu 75 75 NW 1 7668 6424 2524 Blue 12
5 PM Thu 72 72 NW 1 6437 6152 2252 Blue 9
6 PM Thu 70 70 NW 1 6238 6022 2122 Blue 8
7 PM Thu 67 67 NE 1 6028 4771 871 Blue 5
8 PM Thu 66 66 NE 1 5962 4521 621 Blue 4
9 PM Thu 65 65 NE 1 5582 4006 106 Blue 3
10 PM Thu 65 65 E 1 5582 4006 106 Blue 3
11 PM Thu 64 64 E 1 4782 3900 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Fri 63 63 E 1 4530 3900 0 Blue 1
1 AM Fri 62 62 NW 1 4023 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 61 61 NW 1 3140 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 60 60 NW 1 3140 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 59 59 N 2 3140 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 59 59 N 2 3140 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 60 60 N 2 3140 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 62 62 N 1 4023 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 65 65 N 1 5582 4006 106 Blue 3
9 AM Fri 69 70 N 1 6238 6022 2122 Blue 8
10 AM Fri 72 74 SW 3 7046 6321 2421 Blue 11
11 AM Fri 74 77 SW 3 8432 6973 3073 Blue 14
12 Noon Fri 75 78 SW 3 8719 7586 3686 Blue 15
1 PM Fri 75 77 W 8 8432 6973 3073 Blue 14
2 PM Fri 74 75 W 8 7668 6424 2524 Blue 12
3 PM Fri 72 72 W 8 6437 6152 2252 Blue 9
4 PM Fri 70 70 W 5 6238 6022 2122 Blue 8
5 PM Fri 67 67 W 5 6028 4771 871 Blue 5
6 PM Fri 64 64 W 5 4782 3900 0 Blue 2
7 PM Fri 61 61 W 1 3140 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 60 60 W 1 3140 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 58 58 W 1 3140 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 58 58 SW 1 3140 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 58 58 SW 1 3140 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 57 57 SW 1 3140 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 57 57 SW 1 3140 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 56 56 SW 1 3140 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 56 56 SW 1 3140 3900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst