Detailed Predictions for: Big Black
Launch Altitude (f): 3900
LZ Altitude (f): 1645
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

26 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 42 42 S 8 2477 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 43 43 S 8 2477 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 44 44 S 8 2477 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 45 45 SW 9 3634 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 46 46 S 10 4824 3900 0 White 1
10 AM Sun 45 46 SW 12 4824 3900 0 White 1
11 AM Sun 45 46 SW 14 4824 3900 0 White 1
12 Noon Sun 46 47 SW 15 5044 3900 0 White 2
1 PM Sun 45 46 SW 14 4824 3900 0 White 1
2 PM Sun 45 46 SW 15 4824 3900 0 White 1
3 PM Sun 44 44 SW 15 2477 3900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 44 44 SW 15 2477 3900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 44 44 W 15 2477 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 44 44 SW 14 2477 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 44 44 SW 15 2477 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 44 44 W 14 2477 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 44 44 W 15 2477 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 44 44 W 16 2477 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 43 43 W 15 2477 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 43 43 W 15 2477 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 42 42 W 14 2477 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 41 41 W 13 2477 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 40 40 W 12 2477 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 40 40 W 12 2477 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 40 40 W 10 2477 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 40 40 W 10 2477 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 40 40 W 12 2477 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 41 41 W 12 2477 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 42 43 W 12 2477 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 43 45 W 13 3634 3900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 44 48 W 13 5264 3900 0 White 3
12 Noon Mon 45 50 W 14 5634 5527 1627 Blue 5
1 PM Mon 46 51 W 14 5665 5562 1662 Blue 6
2 PM Mon 46 50 W 14 5634 5527 1627 Blue 5
3 PM Mon 47 50 W 13 5634 5527 1627 Blue 5
4 PM Mon 46 48 W 13 5264 3900 0 White 3
5 PM Mon 47 48 W 12 5264 3900 0 White 3
6 PM Mon 46 46 W 10 4824 3900 0 White 1
7 PM Mon 45 45 W 9 3634 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 44 44 W 8 2477 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 43 43 W 6 2477 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 43 43 NW 5 2477 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 43 43 NW 3 2477 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 43 43 NW 3 2477 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 42 42 NW 3 2477 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 42 42 NW 3 2477 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 42 42 NW 2 2477 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 41 41 NW 2 2477 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 41 41 NW 2 2477 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 42 42 NW 2 2477 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 43 43 W 2 2477 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 45 46 W 2 4824 3900 0 White 1
9 AM Tue 47 49 W 3 5482 5053 1153 White 4
10 AM Tue 49 53 W 5 5725 5632 1732 Blue 8
11 AM Tue 52 58 W 6 6115 5783 1883 Blue 13
12 Noon Tue 54 61 W 7 6618 6100 2200 Blue 16
1 PM Tue 57 64 W 8 7289 6601 2701 Blue 18
2 PM Tue 59 65 W 8 7801 6767 2867 Blue 19
3 PM Tue 58 63 W 8 6953 6434 2534 Blue 17
4 PM Tue 58 61 W 8 6618 6100 2200 Blue 16
5 PM Tue 54 55 W 7 5786 5693 1793 Blue 10
6 PM Tue 51 51 W 6 5665 5562 1662 Blue 6
7 PM Tue 49 49 NW 5 5482 5053 1153 White 4
8 PM Tue 49 49 NW 5 5482 5053 1153 White 4
9 PM Tue 50 50 NW 5 5634 5527 1627 Blue 5
10 PM Tue 52 52 NW 6 5695 5597 1697 Blue 7
11 PM Tue 54 54 NW 7 5756 5663 1763 Blue 9
12 Midnight Wed 54 54 NW 6 5756 5663 1763 Blue 9
1 AM Wed 54 54 NW 6 5756 5663 1763 Blue 9
2 AM Wed 53 53 NW 5 5725 5632 1732 Blue 8
3 AM Wed 53 53 N 5 5725 5632 1732 Blue 8
4 AM Wed 54 54 N 6 5756 5663 1763 Blue 9
5 AM Wed 56 56 N 6 5861 5723 1823 Blue 11
6 AM Wed 58 58 N 6 6115 5783 1883 Blue 13
7 AM Wed 61 61 N 6 6618 6100 2200 Blue 16
8 AM Wed 63 64 N 3 7289 6601 2701 Blue 18
9 AM Wed 64 67 N 3 8905 7223 3323 Blue 21
10 AM Wed 64 69 N 3 9468 8220 4320 Blue 23
11 AM Wed 65 71 W 6 10268 9165 5265 White 25
12 Noon Wed 65 71 W 6 10268 9165 5265 White 25
1 PM Wed 65 72 W 6 10476 9420 5520 White 26
2 PM Wed 65 71 SW 9 10268 9165 5265 White 25
3 PM Wed 64 69 SW 9 9468 8220 4320 Blue 23
4 PM Wed 63 66 SW 9 8299 6933 3033 Blue 20
5 PM Wed 62 64 SW 9 7289 6601 2701 Blue 18
6 PM Wed 60 60 SW 9 6451 5971 2071 Blue 15
7 PM Wed 59 59 SW 9 6283 5852 1952 Blue 14
8 PM Wed 58 58 S 3 6115 5783 1883 Blue 13
9 PM Wed 57 57 S 3 5981 5753 1853 Blue 12
10 PM Wed 56 56 S 3 5861 5723 1823 Blue 11
11 PM Wed 55 55 S 2 5786 5693 1793 Blue 10
12 Midnight Thu 55 55 S 2 5786 5693 1793 Blue 10
1 AM Thu 54 54 S 2 5756 5663 1763 Blue 9
2 AM Thu 53 53 S 3 5725 5632 1732 Blue 8
3 AM Thu 52 52 S 3 5695 5597 1697 Blue 7
4 AM Thu 51 51 S 3 5665 5562 1662 Blue 6
5 AM Thu 51 51 S 3 5665 5562 1662 Blue 6
6 AM Thu 52 52 S 3 5695 5597 1697 Blue 7
7 AM Thu 55 55 S 3 5786 5693 1793 Blue 10
8 AM Thu 57 58 SE 2 6115 5783 1883 Blue 13
9 AM Thu 59 62 SE 2 6786 6267 2367 Blue 17
10 AM Thu 61 66 SE 2 8299 6933 3033 Blue 20
11 AM Thu 62 69 SW 5 9468 8220 4320 Blue 23
12 Noon Thu 64 72 SW 5 10476 9420 5520 White 26
1 PM Thu 66 74 SW 5 10895 10276 6376 White 28
2 PM Thu 67 74 SW 9 10895 10276 6376 White 28
3 PM Thu 66 72 SW 9 10476 9420 5520 White 26
4 PM Thu 64 68 SW 9 9227 7728 3828 Blue 22
5 PM Thu 62 64 W 7 7289 6601 2701 Blue 18
6 PM Thu 61 61 W 7 6618 6100 2200 Blue 16
7 PM Thu 59 59 W 7 6283 5852 1952 Blue 14
8 PM Thu 58 58 NW 2 6115 5783 1883 Blue 13
9 PM Thu 57 57 NW 2 5981 5753 1853 Blue 12
10 PM Thu 56 56 NW 2 5861 5723 1823 Blue 11
11 PM Thu 56 56 NW 2 5861 5723 1823 Blue 11
12 Midnight Fri 55 55 NW 2 5786 5693 1793 Blue 10
1 AM Fri 54 54 NW 2 5756 5663 1763 Blue 9
2 AM Fri 54 54 N 5 5756 5663 1763 Blue 9
3 AM Fri 53 53 N 5 5725 5632 1732 Blue 8
4 AM Fri 52 52 N 5 5695 5597 1697 Blue 7
5 AM Fri 52 52 N 5 5695 5597 1697 Blue 7
6 AM Fri 54 54 N 5 5756 5663 1763 Blue 9
7 AM Fri 57 57 N 5 5981 5753 1853 Blue 12
8 AM Fri 60 61 N 2 6618 6100 2200 Blue 16
9 AM Fri 62 65 N 2 7801 6767 2867 Blue 19
10 AM Fri 63 68 N 2 9227 7728 3828 Blue 22
11 AM Fri 63 69 W 5 9468 8220 4320 Blue 23
12 Noon Fri 64 71 W 5 10268 9165 5265 White 25
1 PM Fri 65 72 W 5 10476 9420 5520 White 26
2 PM Fri 66 73 W 9 10685 9734 5834 White 27
3 PM Fri 66 71 W 9 10268 9165 5265 White 25
4 PM Fri 65 69 W 9 9468 8220 4320 Blue 23
5 PM Fri 64 66 W 7 8299 6933 3033 Blue 20
6 PM Fri 63 63 W 7 6953 6434 2534 Blue 17
7 PM Fri 62 62 W 7 6786 6267 2367 Blue 17
8 PM Fri 61 61 NW 3 6618 6100 2200 Blue 16
9 PM Fri 60 60 NW 3 6451 5971 2071 Blue 15
10 PM Fri 60 60 NW 3 6451 5971 2071 Blue 15
11 PM Fri 59 59 NW 3 6283 5852 1952 Blue 14
12 Midnight Sat 58 58 NW 3 6115 5783 1883 Blue 13
1 AM Sat 57 57 NW 3 5981 5753 1853 Blue 12
2 AM Sat 56 56 NW 3 5861 5723 1823 Blue 11
3 AM Sat 54 54 NW 3 5756 5663 1763 Blue 9
4 AM Sat 52 52 NW 3 5695 5597 1697 Blue 7

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst