Detailed Predictions for: Big Black
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.1559626015, -116.809663372, 3900
LZ Altitude (f): 1645
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

16 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 59 59 NW 0 0 2976 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 59 59 E 0 0 2976 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 58 58 SW 0 1 2976 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 58 58 WSW 0 1 2976 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 57 57 WNW 0 1 2976 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 57 57 WSW 1 2 2976 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 57 57 WSW 0 0 2976 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 59 59 NW 0 1 2976 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 66 66 W 1 1 2976 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 70 72 WSW 2 3 4346 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 74 78 WSW 4 5 5559 5043 1143 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 83 88 WSW 6 7 9720 8675 4775 Blue 14
12 Noon Thu 85 91 WSW 8 9 11493 9660 5760 Blue 17
1 PM Thu 86 93 WSW 8 10 12699 10701 6801 Blue 19
2 PM Thu 86 92 WSW 9 11 12109 10066 6166 Blue 18
3 PM Thu 85 90 WSW 11 13 10846 9335 5435 Blue 16
4 PM Thu 82 85 WSW 9 11 8726 7661 3761 Blue 11
5 PM Thu 81 82 WSW 8 9 7702 5719 1819 Blue 8
6 PM Thu 78 78 WSW 5 6 5559 5043 1143 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 72 72 W 4 5 4346 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 63 63 W 3 6 2976 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 62 62 W 1 3 2976 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 61 61 W 0 0 2976 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 61 61 W 0 1 2976 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 60 60 WSW 1 2 2976 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 59 59 WSW 1 2 2976 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 59 59 WSW 0 1 2976 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 59 59 WSW 0 0 2976 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 59 59 SSW 0 1 2976 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 58 58 SSE 0 1 2976 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 58 58 S 1 2 2976 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 60 60 WSW 1 2 2976 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 66 66 WSW 1 2 2976 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 70 72 SW 2 3 4346 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 74 77 WSW 4 4 5389 4872 972 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 83 88 WSW 5 6 9720 8675 4775 Blue 14
12 Noon Fri 86 92 WSW 8 9 12109 10066 6166 Blue 18
1 PM Fri 86 93 WSW 10 11 12699 10701 6801 Blue 19
2 PM Fri 86 92 WSW 10 12 12109 10066 6166 Blue 18
3 PM Fri 84 89 WSW 10 12 10184 9007 5107 Blue 15
4 PM Fri 82 85 WSW 10 11 8726 7661 3761 Blue 11
5 PM Fri 79 80 WSW 8 9 6792 5381 1481 Blue 6
6 PM Fri 76 76 W 6 7 5219 4608 708 Blue 2
7 PM Fri 70 70 W 4 5 3807 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 64 64 W 2 5 2976 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 63 63 W 1 2 2976 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 62 62 WSW 1 2 2976 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 62 62 W 0 1 2976 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 61 61 NW 0 1 2976 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 60 60 NNE 0 1 2976 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 60 60 N 0 0 2976 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 60 60 W 0 0 2976 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 59 59 S 0 0 2976 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 59 59 W 0 1 2976 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 58 58 WSW 1 2 2976 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 60 60 WSW 0 0 2976 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 66 66 WSW 1 1 2976 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 70 72 WSW 2 3 4346 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 74 77 WSW 4 4 5389 4872 972 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 83 88 WSW 6 6 9720 8675 4775 Blue 14
12 Noon Sat 85 91 WSW 8 10 11493 9660 5760 Blue 17
1 PM Sat 86 93 WSW 10 12 12699 10701 6801 Blue 19
2 PM Sat 85 91 WSW 11 13 11493 9660 5760 Blue 17
3 PM Sat 84 89 W 11 13 10184 9007 5107 Blue 15
4 PM Sat 81 84 W 10 12 8389 7316 3416 Blue 10
5 PM Sat 81 82 W 8 9 7702 5719 1819 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 78 78 W 5 6 5559 5043 1143 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 71 71 W 4 4 4077 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 63 63 WNW 2 5 2976 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 62 62 WNW 0 1 2976 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 61 61 WNW 0 1 2976 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 60 60 NW 1 2 2976 3900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst