Detailed Predictions for: Big Black
Launch Altitude (f): 3900
LZ Altitude (f): 1645
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

17 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 56 56 E 7 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 57 57 E 7 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 57 57 E 8 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 56 56 E 10 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 56 56 E 12 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 60 60 E 13 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 62 63 E 13 3075 3900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 65 67 E 10 4421 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 67 69 E 10 6126 3974 74 Blue 2
1 PM Wed 67 69 E 10 6126 3974 74 Blue 2
2 PM Wed 67 68 E 9 5055 3900 0 Blue 1
3 PM Wed 66 66 E 8 3979 3900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 64 64 E 6 3379 3900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 62 62 E 6 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 61 61 E 8 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 60 60 NE 12 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 59 59 NE 13 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 59 59 NE 13 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 59 59 E 13 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 58 58 E 12 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 57 57 E 10 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 57 57 E 8 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 57 57 E 7 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 57 57 E 7 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 56 56 E 6 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 58 58 E 5 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 57 57 E 6 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 56 56 E 6 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 56 56 E 6 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 60 61 E 6 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 62 63 SE 3 3075 3900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 64 66 S 3 3979 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 66 68 SW 3 5055 3900 0 Blue 1
1 PM Thu 66 68 W 7 5055 3900 0 Blue 1
2 PM Thu 66 67 W 7 4421 3900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 64 64 W 6 3379 3900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 62 62 W 5 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 58 58 W 5 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 57 57 W 3 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 55 55 SW 2 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 54 54 SW 3 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 54 54 SW 3 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 54 54 SW 3 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 53 53 S 3 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 51 51 S 5 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 50 50 SW 3 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 51 51 SW 3 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 50 50 SW 3 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 49 49 W 3 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 52 52 W 5 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 51 51 SW 6 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 49 49 SW 9 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 49 49 W 9 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 50 50 W 13 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 51 51 W 15 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 51 52 W 15 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 52 53 W 15 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 51 52 W 18 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 51 51 W 18 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 50 50 W 18 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 49 49 W 17 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 46 46 W 17 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 46 46 W 18 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 45 45 W 18 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 44 44 W 18 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 44 44 W 18 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 44 44 W 18 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 43 43 W 18 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 42 42 W 18 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 42 42 W 18 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 42 42 NW 12 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 42 42 NW 12 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 41 41 NW 10 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 43 43 NW 10 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 42 42 NW 10 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 41 41 NW 6 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 41 41 NW 6 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 43 44 NW 6 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 45 46 NW 6 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 46 48 NW 6 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 47 49 NW 6 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 48 50 NW 10 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 48 49 NW 10 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 47 47 NW 10 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 46 46 W 10 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 45 45 W 10 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 44 44 W 10 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 44 44 NW 5 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 44 44 NW 5 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 44 44 NW 5 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 44 44 NE 5 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 43 43 NE 5 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 43 43 NE 5 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 42 42 E 3 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 43 43 E 3 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 42 42 E 3 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 42 42 E 6 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 43 43 E 6 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 43 43 E 6 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 42 42 SE 6 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 42 42 SE 6 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 46 47 SE 6 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 48 49 SE 2 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 51 53 SE 2 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 53 55 SE 2 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 54 55 NW 3 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 54 55 NW 3 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 53 53 NW 3 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 51 51 W 7 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 49 49 W 7 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 49 49 W 7 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 48 48 NW 6 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 47 47 NW 6 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 47 47 NW 6 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 47 47 N 5 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 47 47 N 5 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 46 46 N 5 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 46 46 N 6 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 46 46 N 6 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 46 46 N 6 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 45 45 N 6 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 46 46 N 6 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 46 46 N 6 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 45 45 NW 6 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 45 45 NW 6 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 49 49 NW 6 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 52 53 NW 5 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 55 57 NW 5 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 57 59 NW 5 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 58 59 NW 8 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 58 59 NW 8 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 57 57 NW 8 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 55 55 W 8 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 53 53 W 8 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 53 53 W 8 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 52 52 W 6 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 51 51 W 6 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 51 51 W 6 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 51 51 W 3 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 51 51 W 3 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 50 50 W 3 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 50 50 W 3 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 50 50 W 3 2979 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 50 50 W 3 2979 3900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst