Detailed Predictions for: Big Black
Launch Altitude (f): 3900
LZ Altitude (f): 1645
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 61 61 N 3 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 61 61 N 3 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 62 62 N 3 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 63 63 N 3 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 65 65 N 2 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 67 68 NW 2 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 69 70 W 5 3375 3900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 69 71 W 6 4246 3900 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 70 72 W 7 4729 3900 0 Blue 2
1 PM Wed 69 70 W 8 3375 3900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 67 68 W 8 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 65 65 W 8 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 63 63 W 6 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 62 62 W 3 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 61 61 W 2 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 60 60 NW 1 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 59 59 N 2 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 59 59 N 2 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 59 59 N 2 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 59 59 N 2 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 59 59 N 2 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 59 59 N 2 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 59 59 N 2 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 58 58 N 2 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 58 N 2 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 58 58 N 2 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 58 58 N 2 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 59 59 NE 2 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 61 61 N 2 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 64 64 W 3 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 66 67 W 3 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 68 69 W 5 2821 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 67 68 W 7 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 68 69 W 7 2821 3900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 66 67 W 7 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 65 65 W 6 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 63 63 W 5 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 62 62 W 3 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 61 61 W 2 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 61 61 SW 1 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 60 60 S 1 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 60 60 E 1 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 60 60 NE 1 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 59 59 E 1 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 59 59 SE 1 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 58 58 SE 1 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 58 58 SE 1 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 58 58 SE 2 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 57 57 E 2 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 56 56 SE 2 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 56 56 SE 3 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 56 56 SE 3 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 58 58 SE 3 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 61 61 S 2 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 63 65 S 3 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 65 67 S 5 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 65 67 SW 6 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 65 67 W 7 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 62 63 W 6 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 58 58 W 6 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 57 57 NW 5 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 56 56 NW 5 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 57 57 N 6 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 57 57 N 6 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 57 57 NE 6 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 58 58 E 6 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 58 58 E 5 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 60 60 E 5 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 61 61 SE 5 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 62 62 SE 6 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 63 63 SE 6 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 63 63 E 7 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 62 62 E 7 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 63 63 E 7 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 63 63 E 7 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 65 65 E 12 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 67 67 E 12 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 69 70 E 12 3375 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 71 73 E 9 5429 3900 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 72 75 E 9 6277 4679 779 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 73 76 E 9 6636 5396 1496 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 72 75 E 12 6277 4679 779 Blue 5
2 PM Sat 72 74 E 12 5913 4236 336 Blue 4
3 PM Sat 72 73 E 12 5429 3900 0 Blue 3
4 PM Sat 71 71 E 9 4246 3900 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sat 69 69 E 9 2821 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 67 67 E 9 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 66 66 NE 13 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 65 65 NE 13 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 66 66 NE 13 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 66 66 E 15 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 65 65 E 15 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 65 65 E 15 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 64 64 E 20 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 65 65 E 20 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 65 65 E 20 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 64 64 E 17 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 63 63 E 17 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 61 61 E 17 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 60 60 E 21 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 62 62 E 21 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 65 66 E 21 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 69 71 E 20 4246 3900 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 71 74 E 20 5913 4236 336 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 72 75 E 20 6277 4679 779 Blue 5
1 PM Sun 73 76 E 15 6636 5396 1496 Blue 6
2 PM Sun 74 76 E 15 6636 5396 1496 Blue 6
3 PM Sun 74 75 E 15 6277 4679 779 Blue 5
4 PM Sun 75 75 E 12 6277 4679 779 Blue 5
5 PM Sun 73 73 E 12 5429 3900 0 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 71 71 E 12 4246 3900 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 69 69 NE 7 2821 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 67 67 NE 7 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 66 66 NE 7 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 65 65 NE 5 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 64 64 NE 5 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 62 62 NE 5 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 60 60 NE 2 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 59 59 NE 2 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 58 58 NE 2 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 58 58 NE 5 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 59 59 NE 5 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 61 61 NE 5 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 63 63 NE 2 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 65 65 NE 2 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 67 68 NE 2 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 69 71 W 5 4246 3900 0 Blue 1
11 AM Mon 72 75 W 5 6277 4679 779 Blue 5
12 Noon Mon 72 75 W 5 6277 4679 779 Blue 5
1 PM Mon 73 75 W 8 6277 4679 779 Blue 5
2 PM Mon 72 73 W 8 5429 3900 0 Blue 3
3 PM Mon 70 70 W 8 3375 3900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 68 68 W 7 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 67 67 W 7 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 66 66 W 7 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 65 65 W 5 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 64 64 W 5 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 63 63 W 5 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 63 63 W 3 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 62 62 W 3 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 62 62 W 3 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 61 61 W 5 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 60 60 W 5 2618 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 60 60 W 5 2618 3900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst