Detailed Predictions for: Big Black
Launch Altitude (f): 3900
LZ Altitude (f): 1645
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

16 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 71 71 N 3 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 73 73 N 3 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 75 75 NW 3 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 77 78 SW 2 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 80 83 SW 5 4611 3900 0 Blue 3
10 AM Tue 82 87 SW 6 6220 4892 992 Blue 7
11 AM Tue 83 90 SW 8 7364 6168 2268 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 84 92 SW 9 7837 7098 3198 Blue 12
1 PM Tue 84 92 SW 12 7837 7098 3198 Blue 12
2 PM Tue 85 93 W 13 8073 7335 3435 Blue 13
3 PM Tue 84 90 W 14 7364 6168 2268 Blue 10
4 PM Tue 83 88 W 14 6820 5162 1262 Blue 8
5 PM Tue 81 84 W 13 4905 4012 112 Blue 4
6 PM Tue 78 79 W 10 3087 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 76 76 W 7 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 74 74 W 5 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 72 72 W 5 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 70 70 SW 5 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 69 69 SW 3 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 68 68 SW 3 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 68 68 S 3 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 67 67 SE 3 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 66 66 SE 5 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 65 65 SE 3 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 65 65 SE 3 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 67 67 SE 3 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 70 70 SE 3 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 74 75 SE 3 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 76 79 S 5 3087 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 77 82 S 7 4315 3900 0 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 78 85 SW 9 5176 4307 407 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 79 87 SW 10 6220 4892 992 Blue 7
1 PM Wed 78 86 SW 12 5597 4600 700 Blue 6
2 PM Wed 79 87 SW 13 6220 4892 992 Blue 7
3 PM Wed 78 84 SW 13 4905 4012 112 Blue 4
4 PM Wed 76 80 SW 13 3717 3900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 74 77 SW 12 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 72 73 SW 9 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 70 70 SW 7 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 68 68 SW 5 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 67 67 S 3 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 66 66 S 3 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 65 65 S 3 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 65 65 S 3 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 64 64 S 2 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 64 64 SE 2 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 63 63 SE 3 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 62 62 SE 3 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 62 62 SE 3 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 64 64 SE 3 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 67 67 SE 2 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 69 70 SE 2 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 70 73 S 5 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 70 75 SW 6 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 71 76 SW 8 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 72 79 SW 9 3087 3900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 73 80 SW 10 3717 3900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 73 79 W 12 3087 3900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 74 79 W 12 3087 3900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 72 76 W 12 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 70 72 W 10 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 68 69 W 8 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 65 65 SW 7 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 63 63 SW 5 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 62 62 SW 5 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 61 61 SW 3 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 61 61 S 3 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 60 60 S 3 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 60 60 S 3 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 59 59 S 3 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 58 58 S 3 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 58 58 S 3 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 58 58 S 3 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 60 60 S 3 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 63 63 S 3 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 66 67 S 3 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 68 71 S 3 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 69 74 S 3 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 71 78 SW 8 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 72 80 SW 8 3717 3900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 74 82 SW 8 4315 3900 0 Blue 2
2 PM Fri 73 81 W 12 4017 3900 0 Blue 1
3 PM Fri 73 79 W 12 3087 3900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 71 76 W 12 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 69 72 W 10 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 67 68 W 10 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 64 64 W 10 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 62 62 W 5 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 61 61 W 5 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 60 60 W 5 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 59 59 W 3 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 58 58 W 3 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 58 58 W 3 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 58 58 NW 3 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 57 57 NW 3 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 56 56 NW 3 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 56 56 NW 3 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 58 58 NW 3 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 61 61 NW 3 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 64 65 NW 3 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 66 69 NW 3 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 67 72 NW 3 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 69 75 W 8 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 70 78 W 8 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 72 80 W 8 3717 3900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 72 79 W 12 3087 3900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 72 78 W 12 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 72 76 W 12 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 71 73 W 9 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 69 70 W 9 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 67 67 W 9 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 65 65 NW 5 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 63 63 NW 5 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 62 62 NW 5 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 61 61 NW 3 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 61 61 NW 3 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 61 61 NW 3 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 61 61 NW 2 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 61 61 NW 2 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 61 61 NW 2 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 62 62 N 2 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 65 65 N 2 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 68 68 N 2 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 72 73 E 2 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 74 77 E 2 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 75 80 E 2 3717 3900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 76 81 NW 7 4017 3900 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sun 77 83 NW 7 4611 3900 0 Blue 3
1 PM Sun 78 84 NW 7 4905 4012 112 Blue 4
2 PM Sun 77 83 W 9 4611 3900 0 Blue 3
3 PM Sun 78 83 W 9 4611 3900 0 Blue 3
4 PM Sun 77 80 W 9 3717 3900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 76 78 W 8 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 74 75 W 8 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 73 73 W 8 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 72 72 N 2 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 70 70 N 2 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 69 69 N 2 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 68 68 NW 2 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 67 67 NW 2 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 67 67 NW 2 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 67 67 N 2 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 67 67 N 2 2874 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 67 67 N 2 2874 3900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst