Detailed Predictions for: Blackhawk
Launch Altitude (f): 6280
LZ Altitude (f): 3700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

15 JUN 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 64 64 W 8 5259 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 64 64 W 8 5259 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 68 68 W 7 5280 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 71 72 W 6 5995 6280 0 Blue 2
9 AM Sat 73 76 NW 6 6952 6280 0 Blue 6
10 AM Sat 76 81 NW 6 11952 10700 4420 Blue 11
11 AM Sat 77 83 N 7 12934 11448 5168 Blue 13
12 Noon Sat 79 86 N 7 15912 12823 6543 Blue 16
1 PM Sat 81 88 N 7 16587 15503 9223 Blue 18
2 PM Sat 83 90 N 8 17251 16131 9851 Blue 20
3 PM Sat 83 88 N 8 16587 15503 9223 Blue 18
4 PM Sat 84 88 NW 8 16587 15503 9223 Blue 18
5 PM Sat 83 85 W 9 15604 12343 6063 Blue 15
6 PM Sat 81 82 W 10 12450 11094 4814 Blue 12
7 PM Sat 79 79 SW 12 11156 6941 661 Blue 9
8 PM Sat 75 75 SW 16 6688 6280 0 Blue 5
9 PM Sat 73 73 SW 16 6158 6280 0 Blue 3
10 PM Sat 72 72 SW 16 5995 6280 0 Blue 2
11 PM Sat 70 70 SW 14 5761 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 70 70 SW 13 5761 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 68 68 SW 10 5280 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 67 67 W 9 5259 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 66 66 W 9 5259 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 66 66 SW 8 5259 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 65 65 SW 7 5259 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 65 65 S 7 5259 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 69 69 SW 2 5538 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 71 72 N 2 5995 6280 0 Blue 2
9 AM Sun 72 75 N 3 6688 6280 0 Blue 5
10 AM Sun 75 79 N 5 11156 6941 661 Blue 9
11 AM Sun 76 81 N 7 11952 10700 4420 Blue 11
12 Noon Sun 78 84 N 7 15293 11851 5571 Blue 14
1 PM Sun 79 85 N 5 15604 12343 6063 Blue 15
2 PM Sun 81 87 SW 5 16250 14607 8327 Blue 17
3 PM Sun 81 86 SW 12 15912 12823 6543 Blue 16
4 PM Sun 82 85 SW 14 15604 12343 6063 Blue 15
5 PM Sun 81 83 SW 24 12934 11448 5168 Blue 13
6 PM Sun 79 80 SW 23 11514 10258 3978 Blue 10
7 PM Sun 76 76 SW 22 6952 6280 0 Blue 6
8 PM Sun 72 72 SW 18 5995 6280 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sun 70 70 SW 16 5761 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 69 69 SW 15 5538 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 68 68 W 15 5280 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 67 67 W 15 5259 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 66 66 W 14 5259 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 64 64 W 13 5259 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 63 63 W 12 5259 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 63 63 W 9 5259 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 62 62 W 7 5259 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 62 62 W 6 5259 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 66 66 W 5 5259 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 68 69 NW 3 5538 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 70 73 N 5 6158 6280 0 Blue 3
10 AM Mon 72 76 N 5 6952 6280 0 Blue 6
11 AM Mon 74 80 NE 7 11514 10258 3978 Blue 10
12 Noon Mon 76 83 NE 8 12934 11448 5168 Blue 13
1 PM Mon 77 85 NE 9 15604 12343 6063 Blue 15
2 PM Mon 79 86 NE 10 15912 12823 6543 Blue 16
3 PM Mon 79 85 NE 12 15604 12343 6063 Blue 15
4 PM Mon 80 84 NE 10 15293 11851 5571 Blue 14
5 PM Mon 79 81 NE 9 11952 10700 4420 Blue 11
6 PM Mon 77 78 N 7 10773 6680 400 Blue 8
7 PM Mon 75 75 W 3 6688 6280 0 Blue 5
8 PM Mon 72 72 W 6 5995 6280 0 Blue 2
9 PM Mon 70 70 W 8 5761 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 69 69 W 9 5538 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 68 68 W 10 5280 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 68 68 W 12 5280 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 66 66 W 10 5259 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 65 65 W 9 5259 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 64 64 W 8 5259 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 64 64 W 5 5259 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 63 63 W 2 5259 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 63 63 W 2 5259 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 67 67 W 2 5259 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 69 70 E 3 5761 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 71 74 E 3 6424 6280 0 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 74 79 E 3 11156 6941 661 Blue 9
11 AM Tue 75 82 E 13 12450 11094 4814 Blue 12
12 Noon Tue 77 85 E 13 15604 12343 6063 Blue 15
1 PM Tue 79 87 E 13 16250 14607 8327 Blue 17
2 PM Tue 81 88 E 13 16587 15503 9223 Blue 18
3 PM Tue 82 88 E 13 16587 15503 9223 Blue 18
4 PM Tue 82 86 E 13 15912 12823 6543 Blue 16
5 PM Tue 81 83 E 10 12934 11448 5168 Blue 13
6 PM Tue 79 80 E 10 11514 10258 3978 Blue 10
7 PM Tue 77 77 E 10 10314 6417 137 Blue 7
8 PM Tue 74 74 SW 2 6424 6280 0 Blue 4
9 PM Tue 72 72 SW 2 5995 6280 0 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 71 71 SW 2 5878 6280 0 Blue 1
11 PM Tue 70 70 W 12 5761 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 70 70 W 12 5761 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 68 68 W 12 5280 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 67 67 W 10 5259 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 66 66 W 10 5259 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 66 66 W 10 5259 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 65 65 W 9 5259 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 65 65 W 9 5259 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 69 69 W 9 5538 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 71 72 W 6 5995 6280 0 Blue 2
9 AM Wed 73 76 W 6 6952 6280 0 Blue 6
10 AM Wed 76 81 W 6 11952 10700 4420 Blue 11
11 AM Wed 77 84 W 3 15293 11851 5571 Blue 14
12 Noon Wed 79 87 W 3 16250 14607 8327 Blue 17
1 PM Wed 81 89 W 3 16921 15809 9529 Blue 19
2 PM Wed 83 90 W 2 17251 16131 9851 Blue 20
3 PM Wed 84 90 W 2 17251 16131 9851 Blue 20
4 PM Wed 84 88 W 2 16587 15503 9223 Blue 18
5 PM Wed 83 85 W 7 15604 12343 6063 Blue 15
6 PM Wed 81 82 W 7 12450 11094 4814 Blue 12
7 PM Wed 79 79 W 7 11156 6941 661 Blue 9
8 PM Wed 76 76 SW 16 6952 6280 0 Blue 6
9 PM Wed 74 74 SW 16 6424 6280 0 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 73 73 SW 16 6158 6280 0 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 72 72 W 16 5995 6280 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Thu 72 72 W 16 5995 6280 0 Blue 2
1 AM Thu 70 70 W 16 5761 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 69 69 W 13 5538 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 68 68 W 13 5280 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 68 68 W 13 5280 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 67 67 W 13 5259 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 67 67 W 13 5259 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 71 71 W 13 5878 6280 0 Blue 1
8 AM Thu 72 73 W 10 6158 6280 0 Blue 3
9 AM Thu 74 77 W 10 10314 6417 137 Blue 7
10 AM Thu 76 81 W 10 11952 10700 4420 Blue 11
11 AM Thu 77 84 W 14 15293 11851 5571 Blue 14
12 Noon Thu 79 87 W 14 16250 14607 8327 Blue 17
1 PM Thu 80 88 W 14 16587 15503 9223 Blue 18
2 PM Thu 82 90 W 15 17251 16131 9851 Blue 20
3 PM Thu 83 89 W 15 16921 15809 9529 Blue 19
4 PM Thu 83 87 W 15 16250 14607 8327 Blue 17
5 PM Thu 82 84 W 18 15293 11851 5571 Blue 14
6 PM Thu 80 81 W 18 11952 10700 4420 Blue 11
7 PM Thu 77 77 W 18 10314 6417 137 Blue 7
8 PM Thu 73 73 W 20 6158 6280 0 Blue 3
9 PM Thu 71 71 W 20 5878 6280 0 Blue 1
10 PM Thu 70 70 W 20 5761 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 68 68 W 21 5280 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 68 68 W 21 5280 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 66 66 W 21 5259 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 64 64 W 18 5259 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 63 63 W 18 5259 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 63 63 W 18 5259 6280 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst