Detailed Predictions for: Blackhawk
Launch Altitude (f): 6280
LZ Altitude (f): 3700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

23 FEB 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 27 27 W 33 5302 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 25 25 W 32 5302 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 24 24 W 29 5302 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 23 23 W 25 5302 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 23 23 W 22 5302 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 24 25 W 20 5302 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 26 29 W 17 6085 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 27 30 W 18 6336 6280 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Fri 29 33 W 18 7223 6330 50 Blue 4
1 PM Fri 31 34 W 20 7592 6652 372 Blue 5
2 PM Fri 32 34 NW 20 7592 6652 372 Blue 5
3 PM Fri 32 33 NW 20 7223 6330 50 Blue 4
4 PM Fri 32 32 NW 18 6891 6280 0 Blue 3
5 PM Fri 32 32 NW 16 6891 6280 0 Blue 3
6 PM Fri 30 30 NW 15 6336 6280 0 Blue 1
7 PM Fri 27 27 NW 13 5302 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 26 26 NW 12 5302 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 24 24 NW 9 5302 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 23 23 NW 8 5302 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 22 22 NW 6 5302 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 21 21 W 5 5302 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 21 21 W 3 5302 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 21 21 W 3 5302 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 22 22 W 3 5302 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 22 22 W 5 5302 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 24 24 W 3 5302 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 25 25 W 3 5302 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 27 27 W 3 5302 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 29 29 W 3 6085 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 31 33 NW 5 7223 6330 50 Blue 4
10 AM Sat 34 37 NW 6 8387 7567 1287 Blue 8
11 AM Sat 37 41 NW 9 9101 8506 2226 Blue 12
12 Noon Sat 40 44 W 14 10115 9039 2759 Blue 15
1 PM Sat 43 47 W 18 10495 10095 3815 Blue 18
2 PM Sat 44 47 W 21 10495 10095 3815 Blue 18
3 PM Sat 44 45 W 23 10242 9548 3268 Blue 16
4 PM Sat 45 45 W 25 10242 9548 3268 Blue 16
5 PM Sat 43 43 W 30 9988 8824 2544 Blue 14
6 PM Sat 42 42 W 33 9617 8665 2385 Blue 13
7 PM Sat 40 40 W 35 8841 8377 2097 Blue 11
8 PM Sat 38 38 W 33 8522 8168 1888 Blue 9
9 PM Sat 37 37 W 31 8387 7567 1287 Blue 8
10 PM Sat 35 35 W 26 8177 6881 601 Blue 6
11 PM Sat 34 34 W 20 7592 6652 372 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sun 32 32 W 13 6891 6280 0 Blue 3
1 AM Sun 30 30 NW 7 6336 6280 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sun 28 28 NW 5 5630 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 27 27 N 2 5302 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 26 26 N 2 5302 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 26 26 N 2 5302 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 26 26 NE 2 5302 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 27 27 E 2 5302 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 29 29 E 3 6085 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 31 33 E 3 7223 6330 50 Blue 4
10 AM Sun 33 36 E 5 8282 7203 923 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 35 39 NE 5 8682 8273 1993 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 38 42 NE 5 9617 8665 2385 Blue 13
1 PM Sun 40 44 NE 6 10115 9039 2759 Blue 15
2 PM Sun 41 44 NE 5 10115 9039 2759 Blue 15
3 PM Sun 42 43 NE 5 9988 8824 2544 Blue 14
4 PM Sun 43 43 NE 3 9988 8824 2544 Blue 14
5 PM Sun 44 44 E 5 10115 9039 2759 Blue 15
6 PM Sun 44 44 S 5 10115 9039 2759 Blue 15
7 PM Sun 44 44 SW 6 10115 9039 2759 Blue 15
8 PM Sun 42 42 SW 6 9617 8665 2385 Blue 13
9 PM Sun 39 39 SW 6 8682 8273 1993 Blue 10
10 PM Sun 38 38 W 6 8522 8168 1888 Blue 9
11 PM Sun 37 37 SW 7 8387 7567 1287 Blue 8
12 Midnight Mon 38 38 SW 8 8522 8168 1888 Blue 9
1 AM Mon 38 38 SW 9 8522 8168 1888 Blue 9
2 AM Mon 38 38 SW 10 8522 8168 1888 Blue 9
3 AM Mon 37 37 SW 14 8387 7567 1287 Blue 8
4 AM Mon 36 36 SW 16 8282 7203 923 Blue 7
5 AM Mon 36 36 SW 16 8282 7203 923 Blue 7
6 AM Mon 37 37 SW 16 8387 7567 1287 Blue 8
7 AM Mon 39 39 SW 18 8682 8273 1993 Blue 10
8 AM Mon 41 41 SW 18 9101 8506 2226 Blue 12
9 AM Mon 43 45 SW 18 10242 9548 3268 Blue 16
10 AM Mon 44 46 SW 22 10368 9960 3680 Blue 17
11 AM Mon 44 47 SW 22 10495 10095 3815 Blue 18
12 Noon Mon 44 47 SW 22 10495 10095 3815 Blue 18
1 PM Mon 43 46 SW 26 10368 9960 3680 Blue 17
2 PM Mon 42 44 SW 26 10115 9039 2759 Blue 15
3 PM Mon 41 42 SW 26 9617 8665 2385 Blue 13
4 PM Mon 40 40 SW 29 8841 8377 2097 Blue 11
5 PM Mon 39 39 SW 29 8682 8273 1993 Blue 10
6 PM Mon 38 38 SW 29 8522 8168 1888 Blue 9
7 PM Mon 37 37 SW 28 8387 7567 1287 Blue 8
8 PM Mon 37 37 SW 28 8387 7567 1287 Blue 8
9 PM Mon 36 36 SW 28 8282 7203 923 Blue 7
10 PM Mon 36 36 SW 24 8282 7203 923 Blue 7
11 PM Mon 35 35 SW 24 8177 6881 601 Blue 6
12 Midnight Tue 35 35 SW 24 8177 6881 601 Blue 6
1 AM Tue 35 35 SW 22 8177 6881 601 Blue 6
2 AM Tue 35 35 SW 22 8177 6881 601 Blue 6
3 AM Tue 35 35 SW 22 8177 6881 601 Blue 6
4 AM Tue 34 34 SW 20 7592 6652 372 Blue 5
5 AM Tue 33 33 SW 20 7223 6330 50 Blue 4
6 AM Tue 31 31 SW 20 6660 6280 0 Blue 2
7 AM Tue 30 30 W 14 6336 6280 0 Blue 1
8 AM Tue 30 30 W 14 6336 6280 0 Blue 1
9 AM Tue 30 31 W 14 6660 6280 0 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 31 32 NW 9 6891 6280 0 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 32 34 NW 9 7592 6652 372 Blue 5
12 Noon Tue 33 35 NW 9 8177 6881 601 Blue 6
1 PM Tue 34 36 NW 9 8282 7203 923 Blue 7
2 PM Tue 35 36 NW 9 8282 7203 923 Blue 7
3 PM Tue 36 36 NW 9 8282 7203 923 Blue 7
4 PM Tue 36 36 NW 12 8282 7203 923 Blue 7
5 PM Tue 35 35 NW 12 8177 6881 601 Blue 6
6 PM Tue 34 34 NW 12 7592 6652 372 Blue 5
7 PM Tue 32 32 NW 12 6891 6280 0 Blue 3
8 PM Tue 30 30 NW 12 6336 6280 0 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 29 29 NW 12 6085 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 28 28 W 12 5630 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 28 28 W 12 5630 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 29 29 W 12 6085 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 30 30 W 12 6336 6280 0 Blue 1
2 AM Wed 30 30 W 12 6336 6280 0 Blue 1
3 AM Wed 30 30 W 12 6336 6280 0 Blue 1
4 AM Wed 30 30 W 10 6336 6280 0 Blue 1
5 AM Wed 31 31 W 10 6660 6280 0 Blue 2
6 AM Wed 32 32 W 10 6891 6280 0 Blue 3
7 AM Wed 34 34 W 10 7592 6652 372 Blue 5
8 AM Wed 35 35 W 10 8177 6881 601 Blue 6
9 AM Wed 36 37 W 10 8387 7567 1287 Blue 8
10 AM Wed 38 40 W 12 8841 8377 2097 Blue 11
11 AM Wed 40 43 W 12 9988 8824 2544 Blue 14
12 Noon Wed 42 45 W 12 10242 9548 3268 Blue 16
1 PM Wed 44 47 W 16 10495 10095 3815 Blue 18
2 PM Wed 44 46 W 16 10368 9960 3680 Blue 17
3 PM Wed 43 44 W 16 10115 9039 2759 Blue 15
4 PM Wed 42 42 W 21 9617 8665 2385 Blue 13
5 PM Wed 41 41 W 21 9101 8506 2226 Blue 12
6 PM Wed 40 40 W 21 8841 8377 2097 Blue 11
7 PM Wed 39 39 W 21 8682 8273 1993 Blue 10
8 PM Wed 38 38 W 21 8522 8168 1888 Blue 9
9 PM Wed 36 36 W 21 8282 7203 923 Blue 7
10 PM Wed 35 35 SW 20 8177 6881 601 Blue 6
11 PM Wed 34 34 SW 20 7592 6652 372 Blue 5
12 Midnight Thu 34 34 SW 20 7592 6652 372 Blue 5
1 AM Thu 34 34 W 18 7592 6652 372 Blue 5
2 AM Thu 33 33 W 18 7223 6330 50 Blue 4
3 AM Thu 33 33 W 18 7223 6330 50 Blue 4

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst