Detailed Predictions for: Blackhawk
Launch Altitude (f): 6280
LZ Altitude (f): 3700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

25 APR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 57 57 W 9 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 59 59 W 9 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 61 61 W 8 4979 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 64 65 W 5 6311 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 65 68 W 6 8801 6303 23 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 66 71 NW 7 11371 8715 2435 Blue 5
11 AM Thu 68 74 NW 8 12163 11326 5046 Blue 8
12 Noon Thu 71 78 NW 8 15212 12455 6175 Blue 12
1 PM Thu 74 81 N 7 18066 14825 8545 Blue 15
2 PM Thu 76 82 N 8 18521 15717 9437 Blue 16
3 PM Thu 76 81 N 7 18066 14825 8545 Blue 15
4 PM Thu 77 80 NW 6 17600 13403 7123 Blue 14
5 PM Thu 76 77 W 10 13831 12084 5804 Blue 11
6 PM Thu 74 74 SW 12 12163 11326 5046 Blue 8
7 PM Thu 72 72 SW 10 11612 9532 3252 Blue 6
8 PM Thu 70 70 SW 14 10557 7931 1651 Blue 4
9 PM Thu 68 68 SW 13 8801 6303 23 Blue 2
10 PM Thu 67 67 SW 13 7987 6280 0 Blue 1
11 PM Thu 65 65 W 13 6311 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 63 63 W 13 5651 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 61 61 W 13 4979 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 59 59 W 14 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 57 57 W 13 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 56 56 W 13 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 56 56 W 12 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 57 57 W 12 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 59 59 W 10 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 60 61 W 10 4979 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 62 65 W 10 6311 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 64 69 NW 12 9633 7026 746 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 66 72 NW 12 11612 9532 3252 Blue 6
12 Noon Fri 69 76 NW 10 12908 11805 5525 Blue 10
1 PM Fri 73 80 NW 9 17600 13403 7123 Blue 14
2 PM Fri 75 81 NW 8 18066 14825 8545 Blue 15
3 PM Fri 75 80 NW 9 17600 13403 7123 Blue 14
4 PM Fri 75 78 W 12 15212 12455 6175 Blue 12
5 PM Fri 73 74 W 14 12163 11326 5046 Blue 8
6 PM Fri 71 71 W 15 11371 8715 2435 Blue 5
7 PM Fri 68 68 W 16 8801 6303 23 Blue 2
8 PM Fri 66 66 W 16 7082 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 64 64 W 17 5982 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 61 61 W 18 4979 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 60 60 W 18 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 59 59 W 18 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 58 58 W 18 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 58 58 W 18 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 57 57 W 17 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 56 56 W 17 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 55 55 W 16 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 55 55 W 15 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 56 56 W 15 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 57 58 W 14 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 59 62 W 13 5316 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 62 67 NW 13 7987 6280 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 64 70 NW 12 10557 7931 1651 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 67 74 NW 12 12163 11326 5046 Blue 8
1 PM Sat 70 77 NW 12 13831 12084 5804 Blue 11
2 PM Sat 72 78 NW 12 15212 12455 6175 Blue 12
3 PM Sat 74 79 NW 12 16781 12821 6541 Blue 13
4 PM Sat 73 76 W 12 12908 11805 5525 Blue 10
5 PM Sat 73 74 W 13 12163 11326 5046 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 70 70 W 16 10557 7931 1651 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 65 65 W 20 6311 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 62 62 W 22 5316 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 60 60 W 22 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 59 59 W 21 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 58 58 W 20 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 57 57 W 20 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 56 56 W 20 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 54 54 W 20 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 54 54 W 21 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 53 53 W 21 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 53 53 W 22 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 55 55 W 22 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 57 57 W 22 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 60 61 W 22 4979 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 63 65 W 22 6311 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 66 69 W 22 9633 7026 746 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 68 73 W 17 11853 10294 4014 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 70 76 W 17 12908 11805 5525 Blue 10
1 PM Sun 71 77 W 17 13831 12084 5804 Blue 11
2 PM Sun 71 76 W 16 12908 11805 5525 Blue 10
3 PM Sun 70 74 W 16 12163 11326 5046 Blue 8
4 PM Sun 69 71 W 16 11371 8715 2435 Blue 5
5 PM Sun 68 69 SW 18 9633 7026 746 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 67 67 SW 18 7987 6280 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 66 66 SW 18 7082 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 64 64 SW 18 5982 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 62 62 SW 18 5316 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 60 60 SW 18 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 59 59 SW 38 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 59 59 SW 38 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 59 59 SW 38 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 58 58 S 20 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 57 57 S 20 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 54 54 S 20 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 52 52 SW 10 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 50 50 SW 10 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 49 49 SW 10 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 49 49 SW 9 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 50 50 SW 9 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 53 54 SW 9 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 56 59 NW 8 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 58 62 NW 8 5316 6280 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 59 63 NW 8 5651 6280 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 59 63 SW 23 5651 6280 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 57 60 SW 23 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 54 56 SW 23 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 51 52 SW 23 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 48 48 SW 23 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 46 46 SW 23 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 44 44 W 26 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 44 44 W 26 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 44 44 W 26 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 45 45 W 25 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 46 46 W 25 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 47 47 W 25 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 47 47 W 24 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 48 48 W 24 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 48 48 W 24 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 49 49 SW 23 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 51 51 SW 23 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 53 53 SW 23 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 56 57 SW 18 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 58 60 SW 18 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 60 64 SW 18 5982 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 61 67 SW 17 7987 6280 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Tue 61 69 SW 17 9633 7026 746 Blue 3
1 PM Tue 60 68 SW 17 8801 6303 23 Blue 2
2 PM Tue 59 66 SW 22 7082 6280 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 58 63 SW 22 5651 6280 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 57 60 SW 22 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 56 58 SW 26 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 54 54 SW 26 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 53 53 SW 26 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 51 51 SW 24 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 50 50 SW 24 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 48 48 SW 24 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 47 47 W 20 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 45 45 W 20 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 44 44 W 20 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 44 44 W 21 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 44 44 W 21 4974 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 43 43 W 21 4974 6280 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst