Detailed Predictions for: Blackhawk
Launch Altitude (f): 6280
LZ Altitude (f): 3700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

19 JUN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 55 55 W 6 5587 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 57 57 W 5 5587 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 60 60 W 5 5587 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 63 64 NW 2 5587 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 65 68 NW 3 6327 6280 0 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 68 73 N 5 7480 6798 518 Blue 7
11 AM Tue 70 77 NE 6 8354 7685 1405 Blue 11
12 Noon Tue 73 81 NE 7 9218 8551 2271 Blue 15
1 PM Tue 76 84 NE 7 9861 9194 2914 Blue 18
2 PM Tue 80 88 NE 7 10734 10044 3764 Blue 22
3 PM Tue 82 88 NE 7 10734 10044 3764 Blue 22
4 PM Tue 84 88 NE 7 10734 10044 3764 Blue 22
5 PM Tue 83 85 N 6 10073 9407 3127 Blue 19
6 PM Tue 83 84 N 6 9861 9194 2914 Blue 18
7 PM Tue 81 81 N 6 9218 8551 2271 Blue 15
8 PM Tue 79 79 NW 6 8787 8119 1839 Blue 13
9 PM Tue 75 75 NW 6 7918 7249 969 Blue 9
10 PM Tue 72 72 W 8 7260 6560 280 Blue 6
11 PM Tue 69 69 W 10 6567 6280 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Wed 67 67 W 9 6086 6280 0 Blue 1
1 AM Wed 65 65 W 9 5587 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 64 64 W 7 5587 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 63 63 W 7 5587 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 62 62 W 6 5587 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 63 63 SW 3 5587 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 65 65 S 3 5587 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 69 69 S 3 6567 6280 0 Blue 3
8 AM Wed 73 75 E 3 7918 7249 969 Blue 9
9 AM Wed 75 78 NE 3 8571 7902 1622 Blue 12
10 AM Wed 77 82 NE 3 9433 8766 2486 Blue 16
11 AM Wed 79 86 E 8 10286 9620 3340 Blue 20
12 Noon Wed 82 90 E 9 11182 10474 4194 Blue 24
1 PM Wed 85 94 E 9 12755 11365 5085 Blue 28
2 PM Wed 88 96 E 10 14620 12057 5777 Blue 30
3 PM Wed 89 95 NE 9 13738 11586 5306 Blue 29
4 PM Wed 89 93 NE 9 12168 11143 4863 Blue 27
5 PM Wed 90 92 NE 8 11628 10921 4641 Blue 26
6 PM Wed 88 89 NE 8 10958 10255 3975 Blue 23
7 PM Wed 86 86 N 6 10286 9620 3340 Blue 20
8 PM Wed 83 83 NW 8 9647 8980 2700 Blue 17
9 PM Wed 80 80 W 7 9003 8335 2055 Blue 14
10 PM Wed 76 76 W 7 8136 7467 1187 Blue 10
11 PM Wed 74 74 W 9 7699 7029 749 Blue 8
12 Midnight Thu 72 72 W 10 7260 6560 280 Blue 6
1 AM Thu 70 70 W 9 6806 6280 0 Blue 4
2 AM Thu 69 69 W 8 6567 6280 0 Blue 3
3 AM Thu 67 67 W 7 6086 6280 0 Blue 1
4 AM Thu 66 66 SW 6 5844 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 67 67 SW 5 6086 6280 0 Blue 1
6 AM Thu 70 70 SW 6 6806 6280 0 Blue 4
7 AM Thu 74 74 SW 6 7699 7029 749 Blue 8
8 AM Thu 78 79 W 2 8787 8119 1839 Blue 13
9 AM Thu 81 84 NW 2 9861 9194 2914 Blue 18
10 AM Thu 82 87 N 3 10508 9832 3552 Blue 21
11 AM Thu 83 90 N 6 11182 10474 4194 Blue 24
12 Noon Thu 86 94 N 7 12755 11365 5085 Blue 28
1 PM Thu 88 97 N 7 15293 12579 6299 Blue 31
2 PM Thu 91 99 N 9 16121 14378 8098 Blue 33
3 PM Thu 92 98 N 9 15692 13499 7219 Blue 32
4 PM Thu 92 96 N 9 14620 12057 5777 Blue 30
5 PM Thu 92 94 W 9 12755 11365 5085 Blue 28
6 PM Thu 88 89 NW 10 10958 10255 3975 Blue 23
7 PM Thu 84 84 W 10 9861 9194 2914 Blue 18
8 PM Thu 80 80 W 15 9003 8335 2055 Blue 14
9 PM Thu 78 78 W 16 8571 7902 1622 Blue 12
10 PM Thu 76 76 W 15 8136 7467 1187 Blue 10
11 PM Thu 75 75 W 13 7918 7249 969 Blue 9
12 Midnight Fri 73 73 W 13 7480 6798 518 Blue 7
1 AM Fri 71 71 W 13 7039 6321 41 Blue 5
2 AM Fri 68 68 W 14 6327 6280 0 Blue 2
3 AM Fri 67 67 W 16 6086 6280 0 Blue 1
4 AM Fri 66 66 W 16 5844 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 66 66 W 13 5844 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 67 67 W 13 6086 6280 0 Blue 1
7 AM Fri 68 68 W 13 6327 6280 0 Blue 2
8 AM Fri 70 71 NW 12 7039 6321 41 Blue 5
9 AM Fri 73 76 NW 12 8136 7467 1187 Blue 10
10 AM Fri 75 80 NW 12 9003 8335 2055 Blue 14
11 AM Fri 78 85 NW 12 10073 9407 3127 Blue 19
12 Noon Fri 82 90 NW 12 11182 10474 4194 Blue 24
1 PM Fri 86 94 NW 12 12755 11365 5085 Blue 28
2 PM Fri 89 96 NW 13 14620 12057 5777 Blue 30
3 PM Fri 91 97 NW 13 15293 12579 6299 Blue 31
4 PM Fri 92 96 NW 13 14620 12057 5777 Blue 30
5 PM Fri 91 93 NW 14 12168 11143 4863 Blue 27
6 PM Fri 89 90 NW 14 11182 10474 4194 Blue 24
7 PM Fri 85 85 NW 14 10073 9407 3127 Blue 19
8 PM Fri 82 82 W 15 9433 8766 2486 Blue 16
9 PM Fri 80 80 W 15 9003 8335 2055 Blue 14
10 PM Fri 79 79 W 15 8787 8119 1839 Blue 13
11 PM Fri 78 78 W 14 8571 7902 1622 Blue 12
12 Midnight Sat 77 77 W 14 8354 7685 1405 Blue 11
1 AM Sat 75 75 W 14 7918 7249 969 Blue 9
2 AM Sat 73 73 W 13 7480 6798 518 Blue 7
3 AM Sat 70 70 W 13 6806 6280 0 Blue 4
4 AM Sat 67 67 W 13 6086 6280 0 Blue 1
5 AM Sat 66 66 W 10 5844 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 68 68 W 10 6327 6280 0 Blue 2
7 AM Sat 71 71 W 10 7039 6321 41 Blue 5
8 AM Sat 74 75 NW 9 7918 7249 969 Blue 9
9 AM Sat 77 80 NW 9 9003 8335 2055 Blue 14
10 AM Sat 79 84 NW 9 9861 9194 2914 Blue 18
11 AM Sat 82 89 N 8 10958 10255 3975 Blue 23
12 Noon Sat 85 93 N 8 12168 11143 4863 Blue 27
1 PM Sat 89 98 N 8 15692 13499 7219 Blue 32
2 PM Sat 92 100 W 12 16645 15167 8887 Blue 34
3 PM Sat 92 98 W 12 15692 13499 7219 Blue 32
4 PM Sat 91 95 W 12 13738 11586 5306 Blue 29
5 PM Sat 89 91 SW 15 11405 10697 4417 Blue 25
6 PM Sat 87 88 SW 15 10734 10044 3764 Blue 22
7 PM Sat 85 85 SW 15 10073 9407 3127 Blue 19
8 PM Sat 83 83 SW 15 9647 8980 2700 Blue 17
9 PM Sat 81 81 SW 15 9218 8551 2271 Blue 15
10 PM Sat 79 79 SW 15 8787 8119 1839 Blue 13
11 PM Sat 78 78 W 14 8571 7902 1622 Blue 12
12 Midnight Sun 76 76 W 14 8136 7467 1187 Blue 10
1 AM Sun 74 74 W 14 7699 7029 749 Blue 8
2 AM Sun 71 71 W 9 7039 6321 41 Blue 5
3 AM Sun 69 69 W 9 6567 6280 0 Blue 3
4 AM Sun 66 66 W 9 5844 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 65 65 W 5 5587 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 65 65 W 5 5587 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 66 66 W 5 5844 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 68 69 NW 6 6567 6280 0 Blue 3
9 AM Sun 69 72 NW 6 7260 6560 280 Blue 6
10 AM Sun 72 77 NW 6 8354 7685 1405 Blue 11
11 AM Sun 74 81 NE 7 9218 8551 2271 Blue 15
12 Noon Sun 78 86 NE 7 10286 9620 3340 Blue 20
1 PM Sun 81 90 NE 7 11182 10474 4194 Blue 24
2 PM Sun 84 92 NE 8 11628 10921 4641 Blue 26
3 PM Sun 86 92 NE 8 11628 10921 4641 Blue 26
4 PM Sun 87 91 NE 8 11405 10697 4417 Blue 25
5 PM Sun 87 89 NE 7 10958 10255 3975 Blue 23
6 PM Sun 86 87 NE 7 10508 9832 3552 Blue 21
7 PM Sun 84 84 NE 7 9861 9194 2914 Blue 18
8 PM Sun 81 81 N 7 9218 8551 2271 Blue 15
9 PM Sun 78 78 N 7 8571 7902 1622 Blue 12
10 PM Sun 76 76 N 7 8136 7467 1187 Blue 10
11 PM Sun 73 73 W 7 7480 6798 518 Blue 7
12 Midnight Mon 71 71 W 7 7039 6321 41 Blue 5
1 AM Mon 69 69 W 7 6567 6280 0 Blue 3
2 AM Mon 67 67 W 6 6086 6280 0 Blue 1
3 AM Mon 65 65 W 6 5587 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 64 64 W 6 5587 6280 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst