Detailed Predictions for: Blackhawk
Launch Altitude (f): 6280
LZ Altitude (f): 3700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

19 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sun 36 36 SW 2 5197 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 37 37 SW 3 5197 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 37 37 W 5 5197 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 39 39 W 5 5197 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 42 42 W 5 5197 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 46 47 NW 3 5197 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 50 52 NW 3 5197 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 54 57 NW 3 6154 6280 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 57 60 N 3 6440 6280 0 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 58 60 N 5 6440 6280 0 Blue 7
2 PM Sun 58 59 N 3 6328 6280 0 Blue 6
3 PM Sun 58 58 NW 3 6235 6280 0 Blue 5
4 PM Sun 55 55 NW 3 6020 6280 0 Blue 2
5 PM Sun 51 51 NW 3 5197 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 46 46 W 5 5197 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 42 42 W 6 5197 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 40 40 W 7 5197 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 40 40 W 7 5197 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 39 39 W 7 5197 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 38 38 W 7 5197 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 37 37 W 8 5197 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 37 37 W 8 5197 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 37 37 W 8 5197 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 38 38 W 8 5197 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 39 39 W 8 5197 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 41 41 W 8 5197 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 43 43 W 8 5197 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 46 46 W 9 5197 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 50 50 W 8 5197 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 54 55 W 7 6020 6280 0 Blue 2
10 AM Mon 58 59 NW 7 6328 6280 0 Blue 6
11 AM Mon 62 64 NW 8 8192 6580 300 Blue 10
12 Noon Mon 64 66 NW 8 8786 7704 1424 Blue 12
1 PM Mon 64 65 NW 9 8490 7069 789 Blue 11
2 PM Mon 64 65 NW 10 8490 7069 789 Blue 11
3 PM Mon 62 62 NW 10 7100 6326 46 Blue 8
4 PM Mon 58 58 NW 9 6235 6280 0 Blue 5
5 PM Mon 55 55 W 9 6020 6280 0 Blue 2
6 PM Mon 52 52 W 8 5197 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 50 50 W 8 5197 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 48 48 W 8 5197 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 47 47 W 7 5197 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 46 46 NW 6 5197 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 46 46 NW 3 5197 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 46 46 W 3 5197 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 46 46 SW 1 5197 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 46 46 SW 0 5197 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 45 45 SE 0 5197 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 44 44 SE 1 5197 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 44 44 SE 1 5197 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 45 45 SE 1 5197 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 47 47 SE 1 5197 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 51 51 E 1 5197 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 56 57 E 2 6154 6280 0 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 60 61 E 3 6584 6280 0 Blue 7
11 AM Tue 64 66 E 5 8786 7704 1424 Blue 12
12 Noon Tue 66 68 E 6 9372 8463 2183 Blue 14
1 PM Tue 68 70 E 7 10528 9047 2767 Blue 16
2 PM Tue 67 68 E 7 9372 8463 2183 Blue 14
3 PM Tue 67 67 E 6 9080 8167 1887 Blue 13
4 PM Tue 68 68 E 6 9372 8463 2183 Blue 14
5 PM Tue 68 68 SE 6 9372 8463 2183 Blue 14
6 PM Tue 68 68 SE 6 9372 8463 2183 Blue 14
7 PM Tue 67 67 SE 6 9080 8167 1887 Blue 13
8 PM Tue 66 66 SE 7 8786 7704 1424 Blue 12
9 PM Tue 64 64 SE 7 8192 6580 300 Blue 10
10 PM Tue 62 62 SE 6 7100 6326 46 Blue 8
11 PM Tue 60 60 SE 6 6440 6280 0 Blue 7
12 Midnight Wed 57 57 SE 7 6154 6280 0 Blue 4
1 AM Wed 55 55 SE 7 6020 6280 0 Blue 2
2 AM Wed 53 53 SE 7 5396 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 52 52 SE 8 5197 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 52 52 E 3 5197 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 53 53 E 3 5396 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 55 55 E 3 6020 6280 0 Blue 2
7 AM Wed 57 57 E 3 6154 6280 0 Blue 4
8 AM Wed 60 60 E 3 6440 6280 0 Blue 7
9 AM Wed 64 65 E 3 8490 7069 789 Blue 11
10 AM Wed 66 68 E 5 9372 8463 2183 Blue 14
11 AM Wed 68 71 E 5 11112 9337 3057 Blue 17
12 Noon Wed 70 73 E 5 12219 10434 4154 Blue 19
1 PM Wed 70 72 E 5 11675 9852 3572 Blue 18
2 PM Wed 71 72 E 5 11675 9852 3572 Blue 18
3 PM Wed 71 71 E 5 11112 9337 3057 Blue 17
4 PM Wed 70 70 E 5 10528 9047 2767 Blue 16
5 PM Wed 69 69 E 5 9934 8756 2476 Blue 15
6 PM Wed 67 67 E 5 9080 8167 1887 Blue 13
7 PM Wed 65 65 SE 3 8490 7069 789 Blue 11
8 PM Wed 63 63 SE 3 7747 6436 156 Blue 9
9 PM Wed 62 62 SE 3 7100 6326 46 Blue 8
10 PM Wed 60 60 E 3 6440 6280 0 Blue 7
11 PM Wed 59 59 E 3 6328 6280 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Thu 57 57 E 3 6154 6280 0 Blue 4
1 AM Thu 56 56 SE 2 6087 6280 0 Blue 3
2 AM Thu 55 55 SE 2 6020 6280 0 Blue 2
3 AM Thu 55 55 SE 2 6020 6280 0 Blue 2
4 AM Thu 55 55 E 2 6020 6280 0 Blue 2
5 AM Thu 56 56 E 2 6087 6280 0 Blue 3
6 AM Thu 58 58 E 2 6235 6280 0 Blue 5
7 AM Thu 60 60 SE 3 6440 6280 0 Blue 7
8 AM Thu 62 62 SE 3 7100 6326 46 Blue 8
9 AM Thu 64 65 SE 3 8490 7069 789 Blue 11
10 AM Thu 66 68 E 2 9372 8463 2183 Blue 14
11 AM Thu 68 71 E 2 11112 9337 3057 Blue 17
12 Noon Thu 70 73 E 2 12219 10434 4154 Blue 19
1 PM Thu 71 73 NE 5 12219 10434 4154 Blue 19
2 PM Thu 73 74 NE 5 12746 11011 4731 Blue 20
3 PM Thu 73 73 NE 5 12219 10434 4154 Blue 19
4 PM Thu 72 72 E 2 11675 9852 3572 Blue 18
5 PM Thu 68 68 E 2 9372 8463 2183 Blue 14
6 PM Thu 64 64 E 2 8192 6580 300 Blue 10
7 PM Thu 60 60 W 5 6440 6280 0 Blue 7
8 PM Thu 58 58 W 5 6235 6280 0 Blue 5
9 PM Thu 57 57 W 5 6154 6280 0 Blue 4
10 PM Thu 57 57 W 6 6154 6280 0 Blue 4
11 PM Thu 57 57 W 6 6154 6280 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Fri 58 58 W 6 6235 6280 0 Blue 5
1 AM Fri 58 58 SW 10 6235 6280 0 Blue 5
2 AM Fri 58 58 SW 10 6235 6280 0 Blue 5
3 AM Fri 58 58 SW 10 6235 6280 0 Blue 5
4 AM Fri 58 58 SW 10 6235 6280 0 Blue 5
5 AM Fri 58 58 SW 10 6235 6280 0 Blue 5
6 AM Fri 59 59 SW 10 6328 6280 0 Blue 6
7 AM Fri 60 60 SW 12 6440 6280 0 Blue 7
8 AM Fri 61 61 SW 12 6584 6280 0 Blue 7
9 AM Fri 63 64 SW 12 8192 6580 300 Blue 10
10 AM Fri 65 67 W 7 9080 8167 1887 Blue 13
11 AM Fri 68 70 W 7 10528 9047 2767 Blue 16
12 Noon Fri 70 72 W 7 11675 9852 3572 Blue 18
1 PM Fri 71 73 NW 10 12219 10434 4154 Blue 19
2 PM Fri 71 72 NW 10 11675 9852 3572 Blue 18
3 PM Fri 71 71 NW 10 11112 9337 3057 Blue 17
4 PM Fri 70 70 W 8 10528 9047 2767 Blue 16
5 PM Fri 69 69 W 8 9934 8756 2476 Blue 15
6 PM Fri 68 68 W 8 9372 8463 2183 Blue 14
7 PM Fri 67 67 W 12 9080 8167 1887 Blue 13
8 PM Fri 66 66 W 12 8786 7704 1424 Blue 12
9 PM Fri 66 66 W 12 8786 7704 1424 Blue 12
10 PM Fri 65 65 W 13 8490 7069 789 Blue 11
11 PM Fri 65 65 W 13 8490 7069 789 Blue 11
12 Midnight Sat 64 64 W 13 8192 6580 300 Blue 10
1 AM Sat 63 63 W 12 7747 6436 156 Blue 9
2 AM Sat 60 60 W 12 6440 6280 0 Blue 7
3 AM Sat 58 58 W 12 6235 6280 0 Blue 5

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst