Detailed Predictions for: Blackhawk
Launch Altitude (f): 6280
LZ Altitude (f): 3700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

16 OCT 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 39 39 NE 5 4964 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 39 39 NE 6 4964 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 40 40 E 6 4964 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 41 41 E 6 4964 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 43 44 E 6 4964 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 44 46 E 6 4964 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 46 49 NE 6 4964 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 48 52 NE 6 7996 6280 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 50 54 NE 7 8531 7083 803 Blue 2
2 PM Tue 52 56 NE 9 9060 8241 1961 Blue 4
3 PM Tue 53 56 NE 8 9060 8241 1961 Blue 4
4 PM Tue 54 55 NE 8 8796 7976 1696 Blue 3
5 PM Tue 53 53 NE 8 8264 6280 0 Blue 1
6 PM Tue 54 54 NE 7 8531 7083 803 Blue 2
7 PM Tue 53 53 N 6 8264 6280 0 Blue 1
8 PM Tue 52 52 NE 2 7996 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 51 51 NE 2 7129 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 50 50 E 3 6111 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 49 49 E 5 4964 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 48 48 E 5 4964 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 46 46 E 5 4964 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 45 45 E 5 4964 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 44 44 SE 5 4964 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 43 43 SE 5 4964 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 43 43 E 3 4964 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 43 43 E 2 4964 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 44 44 E 3 4964 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 44 44 E 3 4964 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 46 47 E 3 4964 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 48 50 E 3 6111 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 50 53 E 6 8264 6280 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 52 56 NE 6 9060 8241 1961 Blue 4
1 PM Wed 53 57 NE 6 9322 8506 2226 Blue 5
2 PM Wed 55 58 NE 7 9583 8769 2489 Blue 6
3 PM Wed 55 57 NE 7 9322 8506 2226 Blue 5
4 PM Wed 56 57 NE 7 9322 8506 2226 Blue 5
5 PM Wed 56 56 NE 7 9060 8241 1961 Blue 4
6 PM Wed 55 55 NE 6 8796 7976 1696 Blue 3
7 PM Wed 56 56 NE 6 9060 8241 1961 Blue 4
8 PM Wed 55 55 NE 2 8796 7976 1696 Blue 3
9 PM Wed 54 54 NE 2 8531 7083 803 Blue 2
10 PM Wed 52 52 E 2 7996 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 50 50 E 3 6111 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 49 49 E 3 4964 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 48 48 E 3 4964 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 48 48 E 3 4964 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 47 47 E 3 4964 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 46 46 E 3 4964 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 45 45 E 2 4964 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 45 45 SE 2 4964 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 45 45 SE 2 4964 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 46 46 NE 2 4964 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 47 48 NE 2 4964 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 49 51 NE 2 7129 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 51 54 E 7 8531 7083 803 Blue 2
12 Noon Thu 53 57 E 7 9322 8506 2226 Blue 5
1 PM Thu 54 58 E 7 9583 8769 2489 Blue 6
2 PM Thu 56 60 NE 9 10101 9290 3010 Blue 8
3 PM Thu 57 59 NE 9 9842 9030 2750 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 58 59 NE 9 9842 9030 2750 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 58 58 NE 9 9583 8769 2489 Blue 6
6 PM Thu 59 59 NE 8 9842 9030 2750 Blue 7
7 PM Thu 58 58 NE 7 9583 8769 2489 Blue 6
8 PM Thu 57 57 NE 7 9322 8506 2226 Blue 5
9 PM Thu 55 55 E 7 8796 7976 1696 Blue 3
10 PM Thu 54 54 E 8 8531 7083 803 Blue 2
11 PM Thu 52 52 E 9 7996 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 51 51 E 8 7129 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 50 50 E 8 6111 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 49 49 E 7 4964 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 47 47 E 7 4964 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 46 46 E 7 4964 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 46 46 E 7 4964 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 46 46 E 7 4964 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 48 48 E 7 4964 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 49 49 E 8 4964 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 51 52 E 8 7996 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 53 55 E 8 8796 7976 1696 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 55 58 E 9 9583 8769 2489 Blue 6
12 Noon Fri 57 61 E 9 10299 9549 3269 Blue 9
1 PM Fri 59 63 E 9 10655 10063 3783 Blue 11
2 PM Fri 61 64 NE 12 10884 10271 3991 Blue 12
3 PM Fri 62 64 NE 12 10884 10271 3991 Blue 12
4 PM Fri 64 65 NE 12 11598 10449 4169 Blue 13
5 PM Fri 64 64 NE 14 10884 10271 3991 Blue 12
6 PM Fri 63 63 NE 14 10655 10063 3783 Blue 11
7 PM Fri 62 62 NE 14 10477 9807 3527 Blue 10
8 PM Fri 60 60 NE 8 10101 9290 3010 Blue 8
9 PM Fri 58 58 NE 8 9583 8769 2489 Blue 6
10 PM Fri 57 57 NE 8 9322 8506 2226 Blue 5
11 PM Fri 56 56 NE 9 9060 8241 1961 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sat 54 54 NE 9 8531 7083 803 Blue 2
1 AM Sat 53 53 NE 9 8264 6280 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sat 52 52 E 7 7996 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 51 51 E 7 7129 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 50 50 E 7 6111 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 49 49 E 7 4964 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 49 49 E 7 4964 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 50 50 E 7 6111 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 51 51 E 7 7129 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 52 53 E 7 8264 6280 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 53 55 E 7 8796 7976 1696 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 55 57 E 9 9322 8506 2226 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 57 60 E 9 10101 9290 3010 Blue 8
1 PM Sat 59 62 E 9 10477 9807 3527 Blue 10
2 PM Sat 61 63 E 10 10655 10063 3783 Blue 11
3 PM Sat 62 64 E 10 10884 10271 3991 Blue 12
4 PM Sat 63 64 E 10 10884 10271 3991 Blue 12
5 PM Sat 64 64 E 15 10884 10271 3991 Blue 12
6 PM Sat 64 64 E 15 10884 10271 3991 Blue 12
7 PM Sat 64 64 E 15 10884 10271 3991 Blue 12
8 PM Sat 63 63 NE 7 10655 10063 3783 Blue 11
9 PM Sat 62 62 NE 7 10477 9807 3527 Blue 10
10 PM Sat 60 60 NE 7 10101 9290 3010 Blue 8
11 PM Sat 58 58 E 7 9583 8769 2489 Blue 6
12 Midnight Sun 57 57 E 7 9322 8506 2226 Blue 5
1 AM Sun 56 56 E 7 9060 8241 1961 Blue 4
2 AM Sun 55 55 E 9 8796 7976 1696 Blue 3
3 AM Sun 55 55 E 9 8796 7976 1696 Blue 3
4 AM Sun 55 55 E 9 8796 7976 1696 Blue 3
5 AM Sun 54 54 E 7 8531 7083 803 Blue 2
6 AM Sun 52 52 E 7 7996 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 50 50 E 7 6111 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 50 50 E 10 6111 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 52 52 E 10 7996 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 54 54 E 10 8531 7083 803 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 57 59 E 10 9842 9030 2750 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 59 61 E 10 10299 9549 3269 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 60 62 E 10 10477 9807 3527 Blue 10
2 PM Sun 61 63 E 15 10655 10063 3783 Blue 11
3 PM Sun 62 63 E 15 10655 10063 3783 Blue 11
4 PM Sun 62 62 E 15 10477 9807 3527 Blue 10
5 PM Sun 63 63 E 13 10655 10063 3783 Blue 11
6 PM Sun 63 63 E 13 10655 10063 3783 Blue 11
7 PM Sun 63 63 E 13 10655 10063 3783 Blue 11
8 PM Sun 62 62 E 8 10477 9807 3527 Blue 10
9 PM Sun 61 61 E 8 10299 9549 3269 Blue 9
10 PM Sun 60 60 E 8 10101 9290 3010 Blue 8
11 PM Sun 58 58 E 7 9583 8769 2489 Blue 6
12 Midnight Mon 57 57 E 7 9322 8506 2226 Blue 5
1 AM Mon 55 55 E 7 8796 7976 1696 Blue 3
2 AM Mon 54 54 E 7 8531 7083 803 Blue 2
3 AM Mon 53 53 E 7 8264 6280 0 Blue 1
4 AM Mon 53 53 E 7 8264 6280 0 Blue 1

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst