Detailed Predictions for: Blackhawk
Launch Altitude (f): 6280
LZ Altitude (f): 3700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

22 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 41 41 W 17 5466 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 44 44 W 16 5466 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 43 43 W 14 5466 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 45 45 W 12 5485 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 51 52 W 12 7167 6419 139 Blue 6
10 AM Fri 53 56 NW 12 7831 7264 984 Blue 10
11 AM Fri 53 57 NW 14 7971 7366 1086 Blue 11
12 Noon Fri 56 61 NW 14 8728 8099 1819 Blue 15
1 PM Fri 57 62 NW 14 9401 8239 1959 Blue 16
2 PM Fri 56 61 NW 15 8728 8099 1819 Blue 15
3 PM Fri 57 61 NW 15 8728 8099 1819 Blue 15
4 PM Fri 57 59 NW 14 8251 7821 1541 Blue 13
5 PM Fri 54 54 NW 8 7372 7036 756 Blue 8
6 PM Fri 51 51 W 9 7051 6284 4 Blue 5
7 PM Fri 48 48 W 9 6287 6280 0 Blue 2
8 PM Fri 46 46 W 9 5759 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 45 45 W 9 5485 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 44 44 W 10 5466 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 43 43 W 12 5466 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 44 44 W 12 5466 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 45 45 W 12 5485 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 43 43 W 12 5466 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 44 44 W 12 5466 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 43 43 W 12 5466 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 39 39 W 10 5466 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 42 42 W 10 5466 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 41 41 W 10 5466 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 44 44 W 10 5466 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 51 52 W 9 7167 6419 139 Blue 6
10 AM Sat 53 55 NW 10 7579 7161 881 Blue 9
11 AM Sat 54 58 NW 12 8111 7561 1281 Blue 12
12 Noon Sat 57 61 NW 12 8728 8099 1819 Blue 15
1 PM Sat 57 62 NW 12 9401 8239 1959 Blue 16
2 PM Sat 57 61 NW 13 8728 8099 1819 Blue 15
3 PM Sat 58 61 NW 13 8728 8099 1819 Blue 15
4 PM Sat 58 60 NW 12 8391 7960 1680 Blue 14
5 PM Sat 55 56 NW 12 7831 7264 984 Blue 10
6 PM Sat 53 53 NW 12 7269 6725 445 Blue 7
7 PM Sat 50 50 NW 12 6737 6280 0 Blue 4
8 PM Sat 48 48 N 7 6287 6280 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sat 47 47 N 5 6151 6280 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sat 46 46 N 3 5759 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 45 45 W 3 5485 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 47 47 W 3 6151 6280 0 Blue 1
1 AM Sun 47 47 NW 3 6151 6280 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sun 46 46 NW 6 5759 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 46 46 NW 5 5759 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 45 45 NW 5 5485 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 42 42 NW 3 5466 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 45 45 NW 3 5485 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 45 45 NW 3 5485 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 48 48 NW 6 6287 6280 0 Blue 2
9 AM Sun 56 57 NW 6 7971 7366 1086 Blue 11
10 AM Sun 59 62 NW 6 9401 8239 1959 Blue 16
11 AM Sun 59 63 N 8 10016 8378 2098 Blue 17
12 Noon Sun 62 67 N 8 11114 10300 4020 Blue 21
1 PM Sun 63 69 N 8 12459 10813 4533 Blue 23
2 PM Sun 63 68 N 10 11467 10557 4277 Blue 22
3 PM Sun 64 68 N 10 11467 10557 4277 Blue 22
4 PM Sun 64 66 N 10 10857 9953 3673 Blue 20
5 PM Sun 60 61 N 9 8728 8099 1819 Blue 15
6 PM Sun 58 58 N 9 8111 7561 1281 Blue 12
7 PM Sun 55 55 N 9 7579 7161 881 Blue 9
8 PM Sun 53 53 N 6 7269 6725 445 Blue 7
9 PM Sun 52 52 N 6 7167 6419 139 Blue 6
10 PM Sun 50 50 N 6 6737 6280 0 Blue 4
11 PM Sun 50 50 N 5 6737 6280 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Mon 51 51 N 5 7051 6284 4 Blue 5
1 AM Mon 52 52 N 5 7167 6419 139 Blue 6
2 AM Mon 50 50 N 6 6737 6280 0 Blue 4
3 AM Mon 51 51 N 6 7051 6284 4 Blue 5
4 AM Mon 50 50 N 6 6737 6280 0 Blue 4
5 AM Mon 46 46 N 6 5759 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 49 49 N 6 6422 6280 0 Blue 3
7 AM Mon 49 49 N 6 6422 6280 0 Blue 3
8 AM Mon 52 52 N 7 7167 6419 139 Blue 6
9 AM Mon 60 61 N 7 8728 8099 1819 Blue 15
10 AM Mon 63 65 N 7 10600 9321 3041 Blue 19
11 AM Mon 63 67 N 12 11114 10300 4020 Blue 21
12 Noon Mon 66 71 N 12 14146 11321 5041 Blue 25
1 PM Mon 67 72 N 12 14889 12251 5971 Blue 26
2 PM Mon 67 71 N 15 14146 11321 5041 Blue 25
3 PM Mon 69 72 N 15 14889 12251 5971 Blue 26
4 PM Mon 68 70 N 15 13342 11068 4788 Blue 24
5 PM Mon 64 65 N 13 10600 9321 3041 Blue 19
6 PM Mon 62 62 N 13 9401 8239 1959 Blue 16
7 PM Mon 59 59 N 13 8251 7821 1541 Blue 13
8 PM Mon 57 57 N 9 7971 7366 1086 Blue 11
9 PM Mon 56 56 N 9 7831 7264 984 Blue 10
10 PM Mon 54 54 N 9 7372 7036 756 Blue 8
11 PM Mon 54 54 N 7 7372 7036 756 Blue 8
12 Midnight Tue 55 55 N 7 7579 7161 881 Blue 9
1 AM Tue 56 56 N 7 7831 7264 984 Blue 10
2 AM Tue 54 54 E 8 7372 7036 756 Blue 8
3 AM Tue 55 55 E 8 7579 7161 881 Blue 9
4 AM Tue 54 54 E 8 7372 7036 756 Blue 8
5 AM Tue 50 50 E 8 6737 6280 0 Blue 4
6 AM Tue 53 53 E 8 7269 6725 445 Blue 7
7 AM Tue 52 52 E 8 7167 6419 139 Blue 6
8 AM Tue 55 55 NW 5 7579 7161 881 Blue 9
9 AM Tue 62 63 NW 5 10016 8378 2098 Blue 17
10 AM Tue 64 67 NW 5 11114 10300 4020 Blue 21
11 AM Tue 64 68 N 9 11467 10557 4277 Blue 22
12 Noon Tue 68 73 N 9 15585 13127 6847 Blue 27
1 PM Tue 68 73 N 9 15585 13127 6847 Blue 27
2 PM Tue 68 73 NE 10 15585 13127 6847 Blue 27
3 PM Tue 70 74 NE 10 16241 13926 7646 Blue 28
4 PM Tue 70 72 NE 10 14889 12251 5971 Blue 26
5 PM Tue 66 67 NE 10 11114 10300 4020 Blue 21
6 PM Tue 64 64 NE 10 10340 8659 2379 Blue 18
7 PM Tue 61 61 NE 10 8728 8099 1819 Blue 15
8 PM Tue 59 59 NE 5 8251 7821 1541 Blue 13
9 PM Tue 58 58 NE 5 8111 7561 1281 Blue 12
10 PM Tue 57 57 NE 5 7971 7366 1086 Blue 11
11 PM Tue 56 56 NE 3 7831 7264 984 Blue 10
12 Midnight Wed 58 58 NE 3 8111 7561 1281 Blue 12
1 AM Wed 58 58 NE 3 8111 7561 1281 Blue 12
2 AM Wed 57 57 N 1 7971 7366 1086 Blue 11
3 AM Wed 57 57 N 1 7971 7366 1086 Blue 11
4 AM Wed 56 56 N 1 7831 7264 984 Blue 10
5 AM Wed 53 53 NE 3 7269 6725 445 Blue 7
6 AM Wed 56 56 NE 3 7831 7264 984 Blue 10
7 AM Wed 55 55 NE 3 7579 7161 881 Blue 9
8 AM Wed 58 58 E 5 8111 7561 1281 Blue 12
9 AM Wed 65 66 E 5 10857 9953 3673 Blue 20
10 AM Wed 67 70 E 5 13342 11068 4788 Blue 24
11 AM Wed 68 72 E 10 14889 12251 5971 Blue 26
12 Noon Wed 71 76 E 10 17458 15358 9078 Blue 30
1 PM Wed 71 76 E 10 17458 15358 9078 Blue 30
2 PM Wed 71 76 NE 12 17458 15358 9078 Blue 30
3 PM Wed 73 77 NE 12 17965 16011 9731 White 31
4 PM Wed 72 74 NE 12 16241 13926 7646 Blue 28
5 PM Wed 68 69 NE 12 12459 10813 4533 Blue 23
6 PM Wed 66 66 NE 12 10857 9953 3673 Blue 20
7 PM Wed 62 62 NE 12 9401 8239 1959 Blue 16
8 PM Wed 60 60 NE 8 8391 7960 1680 Blue 14
9 PM Wed 59 59 NE 8 8251 7821 1541 Blue 13
10 PM Wed 58 58 NE 8 8111 7561 1281 Blue 12
11 PM Wed 57 57 E 8 7971 7366 1086 Blue 11
12 Midnight Thu 58 58 E 8 8111 7561 1281 Blue 12
1 AM Thu 59 59 E 8 8251 7821 1541 Blue 13
2 AM Thu 57 57 E 8 7971 7366 1086 Blue 11
3 AM Thu 58 58 E 8 8111 7561 1281 Blue 12
4 AM Thu 57 57 E 8 7971 7366 1086 Blue 11

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst