Detailed Predictions for: Blackhawk
Launch Altitude (f): 6280
LZ Altitude (f): 3700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

24 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 68 68 SW 16 4977 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 67 67 SW 15 4977 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 67 67 SW 12 4977 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 67 68 SW 1 4977 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 68 70 NE 1 5881 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 70 74 NE 3 7113 6355 75 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 72 77 E 8 7994 7102 822 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 75 82 NE 8 12391 11087 4807 Blue 11
1 PM Sat 79 86 NE 7 13280 12696 6416 Blue 15
2 PM Sat 82 88 N 7 13641 13056 6776 Blue 17
3 PM Sat 84 89 N 6 13820 13236 6956 Blue 18
4 PM Sat 84 87 NW 3 13460 12876 6596 Blue 16
5 PM Sat 85 87 W 5 13460 12876 6596 Blue 16
6 PM Sat 84 84 SW 7 12918 11785 5505 Blue 13
7 PM Sat 82 82 SW 9 12391 11087 4807 Blue 11
8 PM Sat 80 80 SW 13 11503 7972 1692 Blue 9
9 PM Sat 79 79 SW 13 11149 7680 1400 Blue 8
10 PM Sat 78 78 SW 13 9683 7386 1106 Blue 7
11 PM Sat 77 77 SW 12 7994 7102 822 Blue 6
12 Midnight Sun 76 76 SW 10 7699 6874 594 Blue 5
1 AM Sun 75 75 SW 9 7403 6645 365 Blue 4
2 AM Sun 74 74 SW 8 7113 6355 75 Blue 3
3 AM Sun 72 72 SW 8 6653 6280 0 Blue 1
4 AM Sun 71 71 SW 8 6367 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 70 70 SW 8 5881 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 71 71 SW 8 6367 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 72 72 SW 8 6653 6280 0 Blue 1
8 AM Sun 74 74 W 5 7113 6355 75 Blue 3
9 AM Sun 75 77 NW 5 7994 7102 822 Blue 6
10 AM Sun 77 81 NW 5 11853 9288 3008 Blue 10
11 AM Sun 78 84 N 6 12918 11785 5505 Blue 13
12 Noon Sun 80 87 N 7 13460 12876 6596 Blue 16
1 PM Sun 82 89 N 7 13820 13236 6956 Blue 18
2 PM Sun 84 91 N 8 14179 13594 7314 Blue 20
3 PM Sun 85 90 N 8 14000 13415 7135 Blue 19
4 PM Sun 85 89 N 8 13820 13236 6956 Blue 18
5 PM Sun 86 88 NW 9 13641 13056 6776 Blue 17
6 PM Sun 84 84 NW 9 12918 11785 5505 Blue 13
7 PM Sun 82 82 NW 12 12391 11087 4807 Blue 11
8 PM Sun 79 79 W 14 11149 7680 1400 Blue 8
9 PM Sun 77 77 W 16 7994 7102 822 Blue 6
10 PM Sun 76 76 W 16 7699 6874 594 Blue 5
11 PM Sun 75 75 W 16 7403 6645 365 Blue 4
12 Midnight Mon 75 75 W 16 7403 6645 365 Blue 4
1 AM Mon 74 74 W 15 7113 6355 75 Blue 3
2 AM Mon 74 74 W 13 7113 6355 75 Blue 3
3 AM Mon 72 72 W 13 6653 6280 0 Blue 1
4 AM Mon 71 71 W 12 6367 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 71 71 W 9 6367 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 72 72 W 10 6653 6280 0 Blue 1
7 AM Mon 74 74 W 9 7113 6355 75 Blue 3
8 AM Mon 76 76 W 5 7699 6874 594 Blue 5
9 AM Mon 77 78 NW 5 9683 7386 1106 Blue 7
10 AM Mon 78 80 NW 5 11503 7972 1692 Blue 9
11 AM Mon 80 84 N 6 12918 11785 5505 Blue 13
12 Noon Mon 82 86 N 6 13280 12696 6416 Blue 15
1 PM Mon 84 89 N 7 13820 13236 6956 Blue 18
2 PM Mon 86 90 N 9 14000 13415 7135 Blue 19
3 PM Mon 87 90 N 9 14000 13415 7135 Blue 19
4 PM Mon 87 89 N 9 13820 13236 6956 Blue 18
5 PM Mon 88 89 N 7 13820 13236 6956 Blue 18
6 PM Mon 87 87 N 5 13460 12876 6596 Blue 16
7 PM Mon 85 85 W 7 13099 12258 5978 Blue 14
8 PM Mon 83 83 W 6 12737 11438 5158 Blue 12
9 PM Mon 81 81 W 7 11853 9288 3008 Blue 10
10 PM Mon 79 79 W 8 11149 7680 1400 Blue 8
11 PM Mon 78 78 W 10 9683 7386 1106 Blue 7
12 Midnight Tue 76 76 W 10 7699 6874 594 Blue 5
1 AM Tue 74 74 W 9 7113 6355 75 Blue 3
2 AM Tue 73 73 W 8 6883 6280 0 Blue 2
3 AM Tue 72 72 W 8 6653 6280 0 Blue 1
4 AM Tue 71 71 W 8 6367 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 71 71 W 6 6367 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 72 72 W 6 6653 6280 0 Blue 1
7 AM Tue 75 75 W 6 7403 6645 365 Blue 4
8 AM Tue 77 77 SW 2 7994 7102 822 Blue 6
9 AM Tue 79 81 SW 2 11853 9288 3008 Blue 10
10 AM Tue 82 85 SW 2 13099 12258 5978 Blue 14
11 AM Tue 84 90 S 9 14000 13415 7135 Blue 19
12 Noon Tue 86 93 S 9 14581 13951 7671 Blue 22
1 PM Tue 87 94 S 9 15270 14129 7849 Blue 23
2 PM Tue 88 95 W 12 15921 14307 8027 Blue 24
3 PM Tue 88 93 W 12 14581 13951 7671 Blue 22
4 PM Tue 88 92 W 12 14358 13773 7493 Blue 21
5 PM Tue 88 90 SW 9 14000 13415 7135 Blue 19
6 PM Tue 86 86 SW 9 13280 12696 6416 Blue 15
7 PM Tue 85 85 SW 9 13099 12258 5978 Blue 14
8 PM Tue 83 83 SW 10 12737 11438 5158 Blue 12
9 PM Tue 82 82 SW 10 12391 11087 4807 Blue 11
10 PM Tue 82 82 SW 10 12391 11087 4807 Blue 11
11 PM Tue 80 80 SW 7 11503 7972 1692 Blue 9
12 Midnight Wed 79 79 SW 7 11149 7680 1400 Blue 8
1 AM Wed 76 76 SW 7 7699 6874 594 Blue 5
2 AM Wed 74 74 SW 7 7113 6355 75 Blue 3
3 AM Wed 73 73 SW 7 6883 6280 0 Blue 2
4 AM Wed 72 72 SW 7 6653 6280 0 Blue 1
5 AM Wed 72 72 SW 7 6653 6280 0 Blue 1
6 AM Wed 73 73 SW 7 6883 6280 0 Blue 2
7 AM Wed 74 74 SW 7 7113 6355 75 Blue 3
8 AM Wed 76 77 S 3 7994 7102 822 Blue 6
9 AM Wed 78 80 S 3 11503 7972 1692 Blue 9
10 AM Wed 80 84 S 3 12918 11785 5505 Blue 13
11 AM Wed 82 88 S 9 13641 13056 6776 Blue 17
12 Noon Wed 84 91 S 9 14179 13594 7314 Blue 20
1 PM Wed 87 94 S 9 15270 14129 7849 Blue 23
2 PM Wed 88 95 SW 12 15921 14307 8027 Blue 24
3 PM Wed 87 92 SW 12 14358 13773 7493 Blue 21
4 PM Wed 87 91 SW 12 14179 13594 7314 Blue 20
5 PM Wed 86 88 SW 13 13641 13056 6776 Blue 17
6 PM Wed 85 85 SW 13 13099 12258 5978 Blue 14
7 PM Wed 84 84 SW 13 12918 11785 5505 Blue 13
8 PM Wed 83 83 SW 14 12737 11438 5158 Blue 12
9 PM Wed 82 82 SW 14 12391 11087 4807 Blue 11
10 PM Wed 82 82 SW 14 12391 11087 4807 Blue 11
11 PM Wed 82 82 SW 10 12391 11087 4807 Blue 11
12 Midnight Thu 81 81 SW 10 11853 9288 3008 Blue 10
1 AM Thu 81 81 SW 10 11853 9288 3008 Blue 10
2 AM Thu 79 79 SW 8 11149 7680 1400 Blue 8
3 AM Thu 77 77 SW 8 7994 7102 822 Blue 6
4 AM Thu 74 74 SW 8 7113 6355 75 Blue 3
5 AM Thu 72 72 SW 7 6653 6280 0 Blue 1
6 AM Thu 71 71 SW 7 6367 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 71 71 SW 7 6367 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 72 73 SW 2 6883 6280 0 Blue 2
9 AM Thu 74 76 SW 2 7699 6874 594 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 76 80 SW 2 11503 7972 1692 Blue 9
11 AM Thu 78 83 SE 9 12737 11438 5158 Blue 12
12 Noon Thu 81 88 SE 9 13641 13056 6776 Blue 17
1 PM Thu 84 91 SE 9 14179 13594 7314 Blue 20
2 PM Thu 86 92 SW 10 14358 13773 7493 Blue 21
3 PM Thu 85 90 SW 10 14000 13415 7135 Blue 19
4 PM Thu 85 88 SW 10 13641 13056 6776 Blue 17
5 PM Thu 84 86 SW 13 13280 12696 6416 Blue 15
6 PM Thu 82 82 SW 13 12391 11087 4807 Blue 11
7 PM Thu 80 80 SW 13 11503 7972 1692 Blue 9
8 PM Thu 79 79 SW 12 11149 7680 1400 Blue 8
9 PM Thu 78 78 SW 12 9683 7386 1106 Blue 7
10 PM Thu 78 78 SW 12 9683 7386 1106 Blue 7
11 PM Thu 77 77 SW 9 7994 7102 822 Blue 6
12 Midnight Fri 76 76 SW 9 7699 6874 594 Blue 5
1 AM Fri 75 75 SW 9 7403 6645 365 Blue 4
2 AM Fri 74 74 SW 7 7113 6355 75 Blue 3
3 AM Fri 73 73 SW 7 6883 6280 0 Blue 2
4 AM Fri 72 72 SW 7 6653 6280 0 Blue 1

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst