Detailed Predictions for: Blackhawk
Launch Altitude (f): 6280
LZ Altitude (f): 3700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 AUG 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 68 68 W 8 5115 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 69 69 W 7 5115 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 70 70 W 7 5204 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 74 75 W 3 8010 6280 0 Blue 3
9 AM Sat 79 81 NW 5 10864 8960 2680 Blue 9
10 AM Sat 82 86 NW 5 13631 11949 5669 White 14
11 AM Sat 85 90 N 7 14478 13925 7645 White 18
12 Noon Sat 87 93 N 6 15105 14727 8447 White 21
1 PM Sat 88 94 N 6 15313 14966 8686 White 22
2 PM Sat 88 94 N 7 15313 14966 8686 White 22
3 PM Sat 88 93 N 7 15105 14727 8447 White 21
4 PM Sat 87 90 N 7 14478 13925 7645 White 18
5 PM Sat 85 87 NW 8 13843 12509 6229 White 15
6 PM Sat 84 84 NW 8 12633 10796 4516 Blue 12
7 PM Sat 81 81 NW 9 10864 8960 2680 Blue 9
8 PM Sat 79 79 W 12 9212 8389 2109 Blue 7
9 PM Sat 77 77 W 13 8756 7563 1283 Blue 5
10 PM Sat 75 75 W 13 8010 6280 0 Blue 3
11 PM Sat 73 73 W 13 6824 6280 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sun 72 72 W 13 5731 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 71 71 W 13 5468 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 70 70 W 13 5204 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 70 70 W 12 5204 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 69 69 W 10 5115 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 69 69 W 9 5115 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 70 70 W 8 5204 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 70 70 W 7 5204 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 75 76 W 5 8425 6779 499 Blue 4
9 AM Sun 81 83 W 3 12066 10374 4094 Blue 11
10 AM Sun 84 88 NW 3 14055 13051 6771 White 16
11 AM Sun 87 91 N 6 14687 14235 7955 White 19
12 Noon Sun 89 94 N 6 15313 14966 8686 White 22
1 PM Sun 90 96 N 6 15728 15505 9225 White 24
2 PM Sun 90 95 N 7 15520 15205 8925 White 23
3 PM Sun 90 94 N 7 15313 14966 8686 White 22
4 PM Sun 90 93 N 6 15105 14727 8447 White 21
5 PM Sun 88 90 N 5 14478 13925 7645 White 18
6 PM Sun 86 86 W 5 13631 11949 5669 White 14
7 PM Sun 83 83 W 5 12066 10374 4094 Blue 11
8 PM Sun 81 81 W 9 10864 8960 2680 Blue 9
9 PM Sun 78 78 W 10 8984 7979 1699 Blue 6
10 PM Sun 76 76 W 10 8425 6779 499 Blue 4
11 PM Sun 74 74 W 12 7589 6280 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Mon 73 73 W 9 6824 6280 0 Blue 1
1 AM Mon 72 72 W 9 5731 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 71 71 W 9 5468 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 70 70 W 9 5204 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 70 70 SW 8 5204 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 69 69 SW 7 5115 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 70 70 SW 7 5204 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 71 71 SW 7 5468 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 75 76 S 3 8425 6779 499 Blue 4
9 AM Mon 80 82 SE 1 11478 9187 2907 Blue 10
10 AM Mon 83 87 NE 2 13843 12509 6229 White 15
11 AM Mon 86 91 NE 2 14687 14235 7955 White 19
12 Noon Mon 88 94 NE 2 15313 14966 8686 White 22
1 PM Mon 89 95 NE 0 15520 15205 8925 White 23
2 PM Mon 89 94 W 5 15313 14966 8686 White 22
3 PM Mon 89 93 SW 8 15105 14727 8447 White 21
4 PM Mon 88 91 SW 13 14687 14235 7955 White 19
5 PM Mon 86 87 SW 21 13843 12509 6229 White 15
6 PM Mon 85 85 SW 22 13180 11368 5088 Blue 13
7 PM Mon 82 82 SW 22 11478 9187 2907 Blue 10
8 PM Mon 79 79 SW 21 9212 8389 2109 Blue 7
9 PM Mon 77 77 SW 21 8756 7563 1283 Blue 5
10 PM Mon 75 75 SW 21 8010 6280 0 Blue 3
11 PM Mon 73 73 S 18 6824 6280 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Tue 72 72 S 18 5731 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 71 71 S 18 5468 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 70 70 S 6 5204 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 70 70 S 6 5204 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 69 69 S 6 5115 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 68 68 S 8 5115 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 69 69 S 8 5115 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 70 70 S 8 5204 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 74 74 E 6 7589 6280 0 Blue 2
9 AM Tue 79 81 E 6 10864 8960 2680 Blue 9
10 AM Tue 82 85 E 6 13180 11368 5088 Blue 13
11 AM Tue 85 88 SW 2 14055 13051 6771 White 16
12 Noon Tue 87 91 SW 2 14687 14235 7955 White 19
1 PM Tue 88 92 SW 2 14896 14486 8206 White 20
2 PM Tue 88 91 NE 1 14687 14235 7955 White 19
3 PM Tue 88 91 NE 1 14687 14235 7955 White 19
4 PM Tue 88 90 NE 1 14478 13925 7645 White 18
5 PM Tue 85 86 SW 10 13631 11949 5669 White 14
6 PM Tue 84 84 SW 10 12633 10796 4516 Blue 12
7 PM Tue 81 81 SW 10 10864 8960 2680 Blue 9
8 PM Tue 79 79 S 13 9212 8389 2109 Blue 7
9 PM Tue 76 76 S 13 8425 6779 499 Blue 4
10 PM Tue 75 75 S 13 8010 6280 0 Blue 3
11 PM Tue 73 73 SW 7 6824 6280 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Wed 72 72 SW 7 5731 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 71 71 SW 7 5468 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 70 70 S 5 5204 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 69 69 S 5 5115 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 69 69 S 5 5115 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 68 68 SE 7 5115 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 69 69 SE 7 5115 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 70 70 SE 7 5204 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 74 74 SE 5 7589 6280 0 Blue 2
9 AM Wed 79 81 SE 5 10864 8960 2680 Blue 9
10 AM Wed 82 85 SE 5 13180 11368 5088 Blue 13
11 AM Wed 84 86 SE 1 13631 11949 5669 White 14
12 Noon Wed 86 89 SE 1 14267 13575 7295 White 17
1 PM Wed 87 90 SE 1 14478 13925 7645 White 18
2 PM Wed 87 90 S 3 14478 13925 7645 White 18
3 PM Wed 87 89 S 3 14267 13575 7295 White 17
4 PM Wed 88 89 S 3 14267 13575 7295 White 17
5 PM Wed 85 86 SW 10 13631 11949 5669 White 14
6 PM Wed 84 84 SW 10 12633 10796 4516 Blue 12
7 PM Wed 81 81 SW 10 10864 8960 2680 Blue 9
8 PM Wed 79 79 SW 12 9212 8389 2109 Blue 7
9 PM Wed 76 76 SW 12 8425 6779 499 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 74 74 SW 12 7589 6280 0 Blue 2
11 PM Wed 73 73 W 12 6824 6280 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 72 72 W 12 5731 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 71 71 W 12 5468 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 70 70 W 13 5204 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 69 69 W 13 5115 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 69 69 W 13 5115 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 68 68 W 9 5115 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 69 69 W 9 5115 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 70 70 W 9 5204 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 73 73 W 6 6824 6280 0 Blue 1
9 AM Thu 78 80 W 6 10462 8733 2453 Blue 8
10 AM Thu 81 84 W 6 12633 10796 4516 Blue 12
11 AM Thu 83 86 NE 7 13631 11949 5669 White 14
12 Noon Thu 85 89 NE 7 14267 13575 7295 White 17
1 PM Thu 86 90 NE 7 14478 13925 7645 White 18
2 PM Thu 86 89 W 2 14267 13575 7295 White 17
3 PM Thu 86 89 W 2 14267 13575 7295 White 17
4 PM Thu 86 88 W 2 14055 13051 6771 White 16
5 PM Thu 84 85 W 8 13180 11368 5088 Blue 13
6 PM Thu 83 83 W 8 12066 10374 4094 Blue 11
7 PM Thu 80 80 W 8 10462 8733 2453 Blue 8
8 PM Thu 78 78 SW 14 8984 7979 1699 Blue 6
9 PM Thu 75 75 SW 14 8010 6280 0 Blue 3
10 PM Thu 74 74 SW 14 7589 6280 0 Blue 2
11 PM Thu 72 72 W 12 5731 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 71 71 W 12 5468 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 70 70 W 12 5204 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 69 69 W 13 5115 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 69 69 W 13 5115 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 68 68 W 13 5115 6280 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst