Detailed Predictions for: Blackhawk
Launch Altitude (f): 6280
LZ Altitude (f): 3700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

25 NOV 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 42 42 W 6 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 43 43 W 6 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 43 43 W 6 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 45 45 W 6 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 47 47 S 6 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 49 50 SE 6 5464 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 52 54 SE 3 7483 6734 454 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 54 56 SW 5 7905 7290 1010 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 55 57 SW 5 8197 7472 1192 Blue 6
1 PM Wed 56 58 SW 6 8487 7654 1374 Blue 7
2 PM Wed 56 57 W 7 8197 7472 1192 Blue 6
3 PM Wed 55 55 W 9 7666 7108 828 Blue 4
4 PM Wed 56 56 W 10 7905 7290 1010 Blue 5
5 PM Wed 55 55 W 13 7666 7108 828 Blue 4
6 PM Wed 54 54 W 15 7483 6734 454 Blue 3
7 PM Wed 54 54 W 16 7483 6734 454 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 53 53 W 16 7300 6280 0 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 53 53 W 15 7300 6280 0 Blue 2
10 PM Wed 52 52 W 14 7117 6280 0 Blue 1
11 PM Wed 50 50 W 14 5464 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 47 47 W 15 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 45 45 W 15 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 42 42 W 15 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 40 40 W 14 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 38 38 W 12 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 36 36 W 9 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 34 34 W 7 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 33 33 W 6 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 33 33 W 6 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 34 35 NW 7 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 35 37 NW 8 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 36 38 NW 10 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 37 40 N 13 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 38 40 N 15 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 38 39 N 15 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 38 38 N 15 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 38 38 N 14 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 37 37 N 13 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 36 36 N 12 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 35 35 N 9 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 34 34 N 8 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 33 33 N 8 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 33 33 N 7 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 32 32 N 6 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 31 31 N 6 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 31 31 N 5 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 31 31 N 5 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 30 30 N 3 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 30 30 N 3 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 30 30 N 3 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 30 30 N 3 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 31 31 N 3 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 33 33 NE 3 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 36 37 NE 3 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 39 41 NE 5 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 41 43 NE 6 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 42 45 NE 7 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 44 46 NE 8 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 44 45 NE 7 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 44 44 NE 5 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 45 45 NE 3 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 44 44 NE 3 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 42 42 E 3 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 39 39 E 5 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 38 38 E 5 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 37 37 E 5 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 37 37 E 6 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 38 38 E 7 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 39 39 E 8 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 41 41 E 9 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 44 44 E 9 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 45 45 SE 9 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 46 46 SE 8 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 45 45 SE 8 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 43 43 SE 8 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 42 42 E 8 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 43 43 E 8 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 46 47 E 8 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 48 50 E 7 5464 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 50 52 E 7 7117 6280 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sat 51 53 E 7 7300 6280 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sat 51 53 E 8 7300 6280 0 Blue 2
2 PM Sat 52 53 E 8 7300 6280 0 Blue 2
3 PM Sat 51 51 E 8 6778 6280 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 52 52 E 3 7117 6280 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sat 50 50 E 3 5464 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 47 47 E 3 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 45 45 SE 6 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 43 43 SE 6 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 42 42 SE 6 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 41 41 E 7 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 41 41 E 7 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 41 41 E 7 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 42 42 E 7 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 42 42 E 7 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 42 42 E 7 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 42 42 E 8 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 42 42 E 8 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 42 42 E 8 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 43 43 E 3 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 45 45 E 3 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 47 48 E 3 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 50 51 N 3 6778 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 52 54 N 3 7483 6734 454 Blue 3
12 Noon Sun 54 56 N 3 7905 7290 1010 Blue 5
1 PM Sun 54 56 N 6 7905 7290 1010 Blue 5
2 PM Sun 54 55 N 6 7666 7108 828 Blue 4
3 PM Sun 54 54 N 6 7483 6734 454 Blue 3
4 PM Sun 55 55 NE 3 7666 7108 828 Blue 4
5 PM Sun 55 55 NE 3 7666 7108 828 Blue 4
6 PM Sun 54 54 NE 3 7483 6734 454 Blue 3
7 PM Sun 53 53 E 2 7300 6280 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sun 50 50 E 2 5464 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 47 47 E 2 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 45 45 E 5 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 45 45 E 5 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 45 45 E 5 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 45 45 E 5 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 45 45 E 5 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 44 44 E 5 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 44 44 E 5 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 44 44 E 5 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 45 45 E 5 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 46 46 SE 5 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 47 47 SE 5 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 48 48 SE 5 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 50 51 E 6 6778 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 52 53 E 6 7300 6280 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Mon 53 54 E 6 7483 6734 454 Blue 3
1 PM Mon 55 56 E 8 7905 7290 1010 Blue 5
2 PM Mon 55 56 E 8 7905 7290 1010 Blue 5
3 PM Mon 55 55 E 8 7666 7108 828 Blue 4
4 PM Mon 55 55 S 3 7666 7108 828 Blue 4
5 PM Mon 56 56 S 3 7905 7290 1010 Blue 5
6 PM Mon 56 56 S 3 7905 7290 1010 Blue 5
7 PM Mon 56 56 SW 7 7905 7290 1010 Blue 5
8 PM Mon 55 55 SW 7 7666 7108 828 Blue 4
9 PM Mon 54 54 SW 7 7483 6734 454 Blue 3
10 PM Mon 54 54 SW 6 7483 6734 454 Blue 3
11 PM Mon 53 53 SW 6 7300 6280 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Tue 52 52 SW 6 7117 6280 0 Blue 1
1 AM Tue 51 51 W 8 6778 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 50 50 W 8 5464 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 48 48 W 8 4947 6280 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst