Detailed Predictions for: Blackhawk
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.344300, -116.820000, 6280
LZ Altitude (f): 3700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

27 FEB 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 43 43 W 14 30 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 42 42 W 15 32 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 41 41 W 16 34 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 41 41 W 15 31 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 42 42 W 14 28 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 42 42 W 13 25 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 41 41 W 10 20 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 40 40 W 8 15 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 38 39 W 6 10 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 41 43 W 6 10 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 44 47 WNW 7 10 5443 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 47 52 NW 8 10 7106 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 47 52 NW 9 10 7106 6280 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 48 52 WNW 9 11 7106 6280 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 49 52 WNW 10 11 7106 6280 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 48 50 WNW 10 11 6450 6280 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 48 48 NW 9 11 5781 6280 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 48 48 NW 9 11 5781 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 46 46 SSW 8 11 5101 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 44 44 ESE 7 11 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 42 42 N 6 11 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 41 41 NNE 6 11 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 39 39 NNE 6 11 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 37 37 NE 6 11 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 34 34 SE 6 11 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 31 31 WSW 6 11 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 28 28 N 5 10 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 28 28 WSW 6 10 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 29 29 SE 6 10 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 29 29 NNE 7 10 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 29 29 SE 7 10 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 29 29 WSW 7 9 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 29 30 N 7 9 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 32 34 WSW 7 9 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 34 37 SE 8 9 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 36 40 NNE 8 10 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 38 43 NNE 8 9 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 40 44 NNE 7 8 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 42 45 NNE 6 7 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 42 44 NE 6 7 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 42 42 NE 6 6 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 42 42 NE 5 6 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 40 40 ENE 5 7 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 37 37 ENE 5 8 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 35 35 ENE 4 9 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 34 34 E 5 10 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 34 34 E 5 10 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 34 34 E 5 11 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 33 33 ESE 5 11 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 33 33 ESE 6 12 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 33 33 SE 6 13 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 33 33 SE 6 12 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 34 34 SE 5 11 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 35 35 SE 5 11 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 36 36 SE 5 10 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 36 36 SE 5 10 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 37 38 SE 5 9 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 41 43 SE 5 8 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 45 48 SE 5 7 5781 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 48 53 ESE 5 6 8142 6448 168 Blue 1
12 Noon Mon 49 54 SE 5 6 9142 6774 494 Blue 2
1 PM Mon 51 55 SE 5 6 10042 7097 817 Blue 3
2 PM Mon 52 55 SE 5 5 10042 7097 817 Blue 3
3 PM Mon 52 54 SSE 4 4 9142 6774 494 Blue 2
4 PM Mon 51 51 S 2 3 6779 6280 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 51 51 SW 1 2 6779 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 48 48 SSW 1 2 5781 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 46 46 S 1 2 5101 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 44 44 SSE 1 2 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 41 41 SSE 1 2 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 39 39 SSE 1 2 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 36 36 SSE 1 2 4879 6280 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst