Detailed Predictions for: Blackhawk
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.344300, -116.820000, 6280
LZ Altitude (f): 3700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

16 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 70 70 WSW 6 12 5777 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 69 69 SW 8 13 5604 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 68 68 WSW 6 12 5431 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 67 67 WSW 8 13 5258 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 66 66 WSW 9 16 5084 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 65 65 SW 9 16 4911 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 66 66 SW 9 16 5084 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 67 67 SW 9 16 5258 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 73 73 SW 8 13 7838 6280 0 Blue 3
9 AM Thu 75 77 SSW 2 6 9226 8162 1882 Blue 7
10 AM Thu 74 77 SSW 3 9 9226 8162 1882 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 76 81 NE 5 11 11249 9522 3242 Blue 11
12 Noon Thu 78 84 NE 5 12 13108 11131 4851 Blue 14
1 PM Thu 80 87 WNW 6 12 14758 12969 6689 Blue 17
2 PM Thu 80 86 SSW 9 16 14227 12383 6103 Blue 16
3 PM Thu 81 86 SSW 11 20 14227 12383 6103 Blue 16
4 PM Thu 82 85 SSW 17 27 13678 11771 5491 Blue 15
5 PM Thu 80 81 SSW 18 28 11249 9522 3242 Blue 11
6 PM Thu 78 78 SSW 18 28 9564 8508 2228 Blue 8
7 PM Thu 75 75 SSW 18 28 8539 7461 1181 Blue 5
8 PM Thu 74 74 SSW 18 28 8191 7105 825 Blue 4
9 PM Thu 72 72 SSW 17 27 7482 6280 0 Blue 2
10 PM Thu 71 71 SSW 16 26 7122 6280 0 Blue 1
11 PM Thu 70 70 SSW 14 24 5777 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 70 70 SSW 12 20 5777 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 69 69 SSW 10 18 5604 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 68 68 S 9 16 5431 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 67 67 S 8 14 5258 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 66 66 S 8 14 5084 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 65 65 S 8 13 4911 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 66 66 S 6 13 5084 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 66 66 SE 6 12 5084 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 72 72 SE 6 12 7482 6280 0 Blue 2
9 AM Fri 74 75 ESE 6 13 8539 7461 1181 Blue 5
10 AM Fri 73 76 ENE 8 14 8884 7814 1534 Blue 6
11 AM Fri 74 77 NE 9 16 9226 8162 1882 Blue 7
12 Noon Fri 77 81 N 10 17 11249 9522 3242 Blue 11
1 PM Fri 78 82 WNW 10 18 11897 9854 3574 Blue 12
2 PM Fri 78 82 WSW 11 19 11897 9854 3574 Blue 12
3 PM Fri 79 82 WSW 12 20 11897 9854 3574 Blue 12
4 PM Fri 80 82 SW 13 23 11897 9854 3574 Blue 12
5 PM Fri 78 79 SW 14 24 9913 8849 2569 Blue 9
6 PM Fri 77 77 SSW 14 24 9226 8162 1882 Blue 7
7 PM Fri 74 74 S 13 23 8191 7105 825 Blue 4
8 PM Fri 72 72 S 12 21 7482 6280 0 Blue 2
9 PM Fri 71 71 S 12 20 7122 6280 0 Blue 1
10 PM Fri 71 71 S 11 19 7122 6280 0 Blue 1
11 PM Fri 70 70 S 11 18 5777 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 70 70 S 10 18 5777 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 69 69 S 10 18 5604 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 67 67 S 10 18 5258 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 67 67 S 10 17 5258 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 66 66 S 9 17 5084 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 65 65 S 9 16 4911 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 66 66 S 8 13 5084 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 66 66 S 6 12 5084 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 70 70 SSW 5 11 5777 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 72 73 SSE 5 11 7838 6280 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sat 72 75 ENE 5 11 8539 7461 1181 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 73 77 NNE 6 12 9226 8162 1882 Blue 7
12 Noon Sat 74 79 N 6 13 9913 8849 2569 Blue 9
1 PM Sat 75 80 W 8 14 10566 9187 2907 Blue 10
2 PM Sat 76 81 WSW 9 16 11249 9522 3242 Blue 11
3 PM Sat 76 80 WSW 11 19 10566 9187 2907 Blue 10
4 PM Sat 76 78 SW 14 24 9564 8508 2228 Blue 8
5 PM Sat 75 76 SW 16 26 8884 7814 1534 Blue 6
6 PM Sat 73 73 SW 17 26 7838 6280 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 70 70 SW 16 26 5777 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 68 68 SW 16 25 5431 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 67 67 SW 14 24 5258 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 66 66 SW 13 23 5084 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 66 66 SW 12 20 5084 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 65 65 WSW 11 19 4911 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 64 64 W 10 17 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 63 63 W 8 14 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 62 62 W 8 13 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 61 61 W 6 12 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 60 60 W 6 12 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 61 61 W 6 12 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 62 62 W 6 12 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 68 68 W 4 10 5431 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 70 72 W 4 10 7482 6280 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sun 69 72 W 4 10 7482 6280 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 71 76 NNW 6 13 8884 7814 1534 Blue 6
12 Noon Sun 73 79 NNW 6 13 9913 8849 2569 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 75 81 NNW 6 13 11249 9522 3242 Blue 11
2 PM Sun 75 81 NW 4 9 11249 9522 3242 Blue 11
3 PM Sun 76 80 NW 4 9 10566 9187 2907 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 76 79 NW 4 9 9913 8849 2569 Blue 9
5 PM Sun 74 75 SW 12 20 8539 7461 1181 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 73 73 SW 12 20 7838 6280 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sun 69 69 SW 12 20 5604 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 66 66 WSW 14 24 5084 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 65 65 WSW 14 24 4911 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 64 64 WSW 14 24 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 63 63 WSW 18 28 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 62 62 WSW 18 28 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 61 61 WSW 18 28 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 59 59 W 18 28 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 58 58 W 18 28 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 57 57 W 18 28 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 56 56 W 17 26 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 57 57 W 17 26 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 58 58 W 17 26 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 65 65 N 3 9 4911 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 67 69 N 3 9 5604 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 66 69 N 3 9 5604 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 68 73 ENE 5 11 7838 6280 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Mon 71 77 ENE 5 11 9226 8162 1882 Blue 7
1 PM Mon 72 78 ENE 5 11 9564 8508 2228 Blue 8
2 PM Mon 73 79 NE 8 13 9913 8849 2569 Blue 9
3 PM Mon 74 78 NE 8 13 9564 8508 2228 Blue 8
4 PM Mon 74 77 NE 8 13 9226 8162 1882 Blue 7
5 PM Mon 73 74 NE 6 12 8191 7105 825 Blue 4
6 PM Mon 72 72 NE 6 12 7482 6280 0 Blue 2
7 PM Mon 69 69 NE 6 12 5604 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 67 67 ENE 5 11 5258 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 66 66 ENE 5 11 5084 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 65 65 ENE 5 11 4911 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 64 64 E 5 11 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 64 64 E 5 11 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 63 63 E 5 11 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 61 61 ESE 6 13 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 61 61 ESE 6 13 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 60 60 ESE 6 13 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 59 59 ESE 8 14 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 60 60 ESE 8 14 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 61 61 ESE 8 14 4879 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 67 67 ESE 5 11 5258 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 69 71 ESE 5 11 7122 6280 0 Blue 1
10 AM Tue 68 71 ESE 5 11 7122 6280 0 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 70 75 E 8 14 8539 7461 1181 Blue 5
12 Noon Tue 72 78 E 8 14 9564 8508 2228 Blue 8
1 PM Tue 74 80 E 8 14 10566 9187 2907 Blue 10
2 PM Tue 74 80 E 9 16 10566 9187 2907 Blue 10
3 PM Tue 75 79 E 9 16 9913 8849 2569 Blue 9
4 PM Tue 76 79 E 9 16 9913 8849 2569 Blue 9
5 PM Tue 75 76 E 6 13 8884 7814 1534 Blue 6
6 PM Tue 74 74 E 6 13 8191 7105 825 Blue 4
7 PM Tue 71 71 E 6 13 7122 6280 0 Blue 1
8 PM Tue 70 70 ESE 5 11 5777 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 69 69 ESE 5 11 5604 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 68 68 ESE 5 11 5431 6280 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst