Detailed Predictions for: Blackhawk
Launch Altitude (f): 6280
LZ Altitude (f): 3700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

26 APR 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 55 55 W 5 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 57 57 SW 5 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 60 60 SW 3 6299 6280 0 Blue 1
8 AM Thu 63 64 W 2 7137 6534 254 Blue 5
9 AM Thu 65 67 NW 2 8400 7124 844 Blue 8
10 AM Thu 66 70 NW 3 9805 8357 2077 Blue 11
11 AM Thu 67 72 NW 7 11183 9292 3012 Blue 13
12 Noon Thu 69 75 NW 7 12717 11060 4780 Blue 16
1 PM Thu 71 77 N 7 13224 12367 6087 Blue 18
2 PM Thu 74 79 N 7 13661 12910 6630 Blue 20
3 PM Thu 75 79 N 6 13661 12910 6630 Blue 20
4 PM Thu 74 76 NW 6 12971 11730 5450 Blue 17
5 PM Thu 74 75 NW 6 12717 11060 4780 Blue 16
6 PM Thu 72 72 W 7 11183 9292 3012 Blue 13
7 PM Thu 69 69 SW 9 9347 7873 1593 Blue 10
8 PM Thu 66 66 SW 10 7909 6879 599 Blue 7
9 PM Thu 64 64 SW 12 7137 6534 254 Blue 5
10 PM Thu 63 63 SW 13 6884 6294 14 Blue 4
11 PM Thu 63 63 SW 13 6884 6294 14 Blue 4
12 Midnight Fri 62 62 SW 13 6746 6280 0 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 60 60 SW 13 6299 6280 0 Blue 1
2 AM Fri 59 59 SW 14 5417 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 58 58 SW 14 5155 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 57 57 SW 15 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 56 56 SW 16 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 56 56 SW 15 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 57 57 SW 15 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 59 60 SW 9 6299 6280 0 Blue 1
9 AM Fri 61 63 W 7 6884 6294 14 Blue 4
10 AM Fri 63 67 W 7 8400 7124 844 Blue 8
11 AM Fri 66 72 NW 7 11183 9292 3012 Blue 13
12 Noon Fri 69 76 W 5 12971 11730 5450 Blue 17
1 PM Fri 71 78 W 3 13475 12658 6378 Blue 19
2 PM Fri 71 78 S 7 13475 12658 6378 Blue 19
3 PM Fri 72 77 S 12 13224 12367 6087 Blue 18
4 PM Fri 70 73 SW 14 11862 9744 3464 Blue 14
5 PM Fri 68 69 SW 16 9347 7873 1593 Blue 10
6 PM Fri 65 65 SW 17 7458 6741 461 Blue 6
7 PM Fri 62 62 SW 17 6746 6280 0 Blue 3
8 PM Fri 59 59 SW 17 5417 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 57 57 SW 17 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 56 56 SW 17 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 54 54 SW 18 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 54 54 SW 18 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 53 53 SW 20 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 53 53 SW 21 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 52 52 SW 21 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 52 52 SW 22 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 52 52 SW 21 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 53 53 SW 18 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 54 54 W 16 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 56 57 W 14 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 57 59 W 14 5417 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 59 63 W 15 6884 6294 14 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 61 67 W 16 8400 7124 844 Blue 8
12 Noon Sat 63 70 W 15 9805 8357 2077 Blue 11
1 PM Sat 64 71 W 14 10465 8830 2550 Blue 12
2 PM Sat 64 70 W 14 9805 8357 2077 Blue 11
3 PM Sat 64 69 W 14 9347 7873 1593 Blue 10
4 PM Sat 63 66 W 16 7909 6879 599 Blue 7
5 PM Sat 61 62 W 18 6746 6280 0 Blue 3
6 PM Sat 58 58 W 21 5155 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 56 56 SW 23 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 53 53 SW 24 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 52 52 SW 24 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 52 52 W 24 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 52 52 W 23 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 51 51 W 23 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 50 50 W 23 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 49 49 W 22 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 48 48 W 21 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 48 48 W 17 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 47 47 W 16 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 47 47 W 16 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 47 47 W 16 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 48 49 W 21 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 50 53 W 21 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 52 56 W 21 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 56 62 W 23 6746 6280 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Sun 60 67 W 23 8400 7124 844 Blue 8
1 PM Sun 64 71 W 23 10465 8830 2550 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 66 72 W 22 11183 9292 3012 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 66 71 W 22 10465 8830 2550 Blue 12
4 PM Sun 63 66 W 22 7909 6879 599 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 61 62 W 20 6746 6280 0 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 58 58 W 20 5155 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 55 55 W 20 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 53 53 W 22 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 52 52 W 22 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 50 50 W 22 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 49 49 W 23 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 48 48 W 23 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 48 48 W 23 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 47 47 W 21 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 46 46 W 21 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 46 46 W 21 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 45 45 W 18 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 44 44 W 18 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 44 44 W 18 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 44 45 W 21 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 46 48 W 21 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 48 51 W 21 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 51 56 NW 24 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 54 60 NW 24 6299 6280 0 Blue 1
1 PM Mon 56 62 NW 24 6746 6280 0 Blue 3
2 PM Mon 58 64 W 24 7137 6534 254 Blue 5
3 PM Mon 58 62 W 24 6746 6280 0 Blue 3
4 PM Mon 57 60 W 24 6299 6280 0 Blue 1
5 PM Mon 55 56 W 23 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 53 53 W 23 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 50 50 W 23 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 48 48 W 21 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 47 47 W 21 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 47 47 W 21 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 46 46 W 17 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 46 46 W 17 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 46 46 W 17 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 46 46 W 15 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 45 45 W 15 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 44 44 W 15 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 44 44 W 13 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 44 44 W 13 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 44 44 W 13 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 45 45 NW 12 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 45 46 NW 12 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 46 48 NW 12 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 48 52 NW 10 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 50 54 NW 10 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 53 57 NW 10 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 55 59 NW 10 5417 6280 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 56 59 NW 10 5417 6280 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 57 59 NW 10 5417 6280 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 56 57 NW 10 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 54 54 NW 10 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 51 51 NW 10 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 48 48 NW 14 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 46 46 NW 14 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 46 46 NW 14 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 46 46 W 16 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 46 46 W 16 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 46 46 W 16 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 46 46 W 15 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 46 46 W 15 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 45 45 W 15 4921 6280 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst