Detailed Predictions for: Blossom Valley
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.8766103497, -116.848377211, 1500
LZ Altitude (f): 700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

27 FEB 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 53 53 SE 1 3 1340 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 48 48 SSE 1 4 1322 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 44 44 SSE 2 4 1322 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 43 43 S 1 3 1322 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 42 42 S 1 3 1322 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 41 41 S 1 2 1322 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 42 42 SSE 1 3 1322 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 43 43 SE 1 3 1322 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 45 46 E 1 3 1322 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 50 52 SSE 2 4 1322 1500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 56 60 SSW 4 5 2638 2074 574 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 62 67 WSW 5 6 4015 3415 1915 Blue 8
12 Noon Sat 64 69 W 6 6 4405 3805 2305 Blue 10
1 PM Sat 65 70 W 6 7 4600 4000 2500 Blue 11
2 PM Sat 66 69 W 7 8 4405 3805 2305 Blue 10
3 PM Sat 66 68 WSW 7 8 4210 3611 2111 Blue 9
4 PM Sat 65 65 WSW 7 8 3624 3024 1524 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 65 65 WSW 8 9 3624 3024 1524 Blue 6
6 PM Sat 63 63 WSW 5 6 3231 2631 1131 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 61 61 WSW 3 4 2836 2256 756 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 59 59 WSW 1 2 2444 1891 391 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 57 57 SSW 1 3 2077 1524 24 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 55 55 SSE 2 4 1709 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 52 52 ESE 3 6 1322 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 50 50 E 4 9 1322 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 48 48 E 6 12 1322 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 46 46 ENE 7 15 1322 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 45 45 ENE 8 17 1322 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 45 45 ENE 9 19 1322 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 44 44 ENE 10 21 1322 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 45 45 ENE 10 19 1322 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 46 46 ENE 10 17 1322 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 47 48 ENE 10 16 1322 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 51 53 ENE 10 14 1340 1500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 55 59 ENE 10 13 2444 1891 391 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 59 64 ENE 10 12 3428 2828 1328 Blue 5
12 Noon Sun 61 66 ENE 10 11 3820 3220 1720 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 62 67 ENE 9 11 4015 3415 1915 Blue 8
2 PM Sun 63 66 ENE 8 10 3820 3220 1720 Blue 7
3 PM Sun 63 65 ENE 8 9 3624 3024 1524 Blue 6
4 PM Sun 63 63 ENE 8 9 3231 2631 1131 Blue 4
5 PM Sun 62 62 ENE 7 8 3034 2439 939 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 61 61 ENE 8 12 2836 2256 756 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 60 60 ENE 8 15 2638 2074 574 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 59 59 ENE 8 18 2444 1891 391 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 56 56 ENE 8 18 1893 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 54 54 ENE 8 18 1524 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 52 52 ENE 8 17 1322 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 48 48 ENE 8 17 1322 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 45 45 ENE 7 16 1322 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 41 41 ENE 7 15 1322 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 41 41 ENE 8 16 1322 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 41 41 ENE 8 17 1322 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 41 41 ENE 8 18 1322 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 41 41 ENE 9 19 1322 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 41 41 ENE 9 19 1322 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 42 43 ENE 9 20 1322 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 49 51 ENE 8 16 1322 1500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 56 60 ENE 7 12 2638 2074 574 Blue 1
11 AM Mon 63 68 E 6 8 4210 3611 2111 Blue 9
12 Noon Mon 65 70 ENE 5 6 4600 4000 2500 Blue 11
1 PM Mon 67 72 ENE 4 5 5050 4387 2887 Blue 13
2 PM Mon 69 72 ENE 3 4 5050 4387 2887 Blue 13
3 PM Mon 69 71 SSE 2 2 4793 4194 2694 Blue 12
4 PM Mon 68 68 W 1 2 4210 3611 2111 Blue 9
5 PM Mon 68 68 N 0 0 4210 3611 2111 Blue 9
6 PM Mon 65 65 W 1 2 3624 3024 1524 Blue 6
7 PM Mon 63 63 SSE 2 4 3231 2631 1131 Blue 4
8 PM Mon 60 60 ENE 3 6 2638 2074 574 Blue 1
9 PM Mon 59 59 ENE 3 7 2444 1891 391 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 58 58 ENE 3 8 2261 1708 208 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 57 57 ENE 4 8 2077 1524 24 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst