Detailed Predictions for: Blossom Valley
Launch Altitude (f): 1500
LZ Altitude (f): 700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

25 NOV 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 47 47 SE 3 568 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 47 47 SE 3 568 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 48 48 S 2 568 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 50 50 S 2 568 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 53 53 S 2 568 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 58 59 S 1 568 1500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 62 64 SW 3 3194 2168 668 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 64 67 S 3 3317 3181 1681 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 66 69 SW 5 3353 3298 1798 Blue 9
1 PM Wed 66 68 W 6 3335 3280 1780 Blue 8
2 PM Wed 67 68 W 7 3335 3280 1780 Blue 8
3 PM Wed 66 66 W 7 3299 2856 1356 Blue 6
4 PM Wed 64 64 W 6 3194 2168 668 Blue 4
5 PM Wed 61 61 W 5 2182 1500 0 Blue 1
6 PM Wed 58 58 SW 3 568 1500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 55 55 SW 2 568 1500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 53 53 SW 2 568 1500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 52 52 S 2 568 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 51 51 S 2 568 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 50 50 S 2 568 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 49 49 SE 3 568 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 48 48 SE 3 568 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 48 48 SE 2 568 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 47 47 E 1 568 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 47 47 E 1 568 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 46 46 E 1 568 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 45 45 SE 1 568 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 46 46 SE 2 568 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 49 49 S 2 568 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 53 54 SW 3 568 1500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 58 60 W 5 1382 1500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 61 63 W 6 2876 1500 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Thu 64 67 W 7 3317 3181 1681 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 65 67 W 7 3317 3181 1681 Blue 7
2 PM Thu 65 66 W 6 3299 2856 1356 Blue 6
3 PM Thu 66 66 NW 3 3299 2856 1356 Blue 6
4 PM Thu 63 63 NW 2 2876 1500 0 Blue 3
5 PM Thu 59 59 N 2 568 1500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 54 54 NE 3 568 1500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 50 50 E 6 568 1500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 48 48 E 8 568 1500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 48 48 NE 10 568 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 48 48 NE 13 568 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 49 49 NE 14 568 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 49 49 NE 13 568 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 49 49 NE 13 568 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 49 49 NE 13 568 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 48 E 14 568 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 48 48 E 14 568 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 46 46 E 13 568 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 46 46 E 10 568 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 47 47 E 9 568 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 51 51 E 7 568 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 56 57 S 6 568 1500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 61 63 SW 5 2876 1500 0 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 65 68 W 2 3335 3280 1780 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 68 71 NW 1 3550 3334 1834 Blue 11
1 PM Fri 69 71 N 1 3550 3334 1834 Blue 11
2 PM Fri 69 70 NW 2 3405 3316 1816 Blue 10
3 PM Fri 69 69 NW 5 3353 3298 1798 Blue 9
4 PM Fri 67 67 W 6 3317 3181 1681 Blue 7
5 PM Fri 61 61 NW 6 2182 1500 0 Blue 1
6 PM Fri 55 55 NE 5 568 1500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 50 50 E 3 568 1500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 47 47 E 3 568 1500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 46 46 NE 5 568 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 46 46 NE 5 568 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 46 46 NE 7 568 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 47 47 E 9 568 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 48 48 E 10 568 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 49 49 E 9 568 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 51 51 E 7 568 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 52 52 E 6 568 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 52 52 E 6 568 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 51 51 E 6 568 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 52 52 E 9 568 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 56 56 E 9 568 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 62 63 E 9 2876 1500 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sat 68 70 W 5 3405 3316 1816 Blue 10
11 AM Sat 71 74 W 5 4012 3538 2038 Blue 14
12 Noon Sat 73 76 W 5 5909 3827 2327 Blue 16
1 PM Sat 73 75 W 6 4768 3683 2183 Blue 15
2 PM Sat 73 74 W 6 4012 3538 2038 Blue 14
3 PM Sat 74 74 W 6 4012 3538 2038 Blue 14
4 PM Sat 71 71 NW 9 3550 3334 1834 Blue 11
5 PM Sat 66 66 NW 9 3299 2856 1356 Blue 6
6 PM Sat 59 59 NW 9 568 1500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 53 53 SE 5 568 1500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 50 50 SE 5 568 1500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 49 49 SE 5 568 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 49 49 E 8 568 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 48 48 E 8 568 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 48 48 E 8 568 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 47 47 E 7 568 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 47 47 E 7 568 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 47 47 E 7 568 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 48 48 E 5 568 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 48 48 E 5 568 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 49 49 E 5 568 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 52 52 E 6 568 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 56 56 E 6 568 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 61 62 E 6 2538 1500 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sun 66 68 W 5 3335 3280 1780 Blue 8
11 AM Sun 70 72 W 5 3695 3352 1852 Blue 12
12 Noon Sun 74 76 W 5 5909 3827 2327 Blue 16
1 PM Sun 76 78 W 7 7142 4680 3180 Blue 18
2 PM Sun 76 77 W 7 6969 3971 2471 Blue 17
3 PM Sun 76 76 W 7 5909 3827 2327 Blue 16
4 PM Sun 73 73 W 6 3841 3393 1893 Blue 13
5 PM Sun 68 68 W 6 3335 3280 1780 Blue 8
6 PM Sun 62 62 W 6 2538 1500 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 57 57 SE 2 568 1500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 57 57 SE 2 568 1500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 58 58 SE 2 568 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 58 58 E 2 568 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 56 56 E 2 568 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 52 52 E 2 568 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 49 49 E 5 568 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 48 48 E 5 568 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 49 49 E 5 568 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 50 50 NE 6 568 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 51 51 NE 6 568 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 52 52 NE 6 568 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 54 54 E 6 568 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 58 58 E 6 568 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 64 64 E 6 3194 2168 668 Blue 4
10 AM Mon 68 69 SW 5 3353 3298 1798 Blue 9
11 AM Mon 72 73 SW 5 3841 3393 1893 Blue 13
12 Noon Mon 74 75 SW 5 4768 3683 2183 Blue 15
1 PM Mon 76 77 W 8 6969 3971 2471 Blue 17
2 PM Mon 75 76 W 8 5909 3827 2327 Blue 16
3 PM Mon 75 75 W 8 4768 3683 2183 Blue 15
4 PM Mon 72 72 W 7 3695 3352 1852 Blue 12
5 PM Mon 67 67 W 7 3317 3181 1681 Blue 7
6 PM Mon 61 61 W 7 2182 1500 0 Blue 1
7 PM Mon 56 56 W 2 568 1500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 54 54 W 2 568 1500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 53 53 W 2 568 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 52 52 SE 3 568 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 51 51 SE 3 568 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 49 49 SE 3 568 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 48 48 SW 3 568 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 47 47 SW 3 568 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 47 47 SW 3 568 1500 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst