Detailed Predictions for: Blossom Valley
Launch Altitude (f): 1500
LZ Altitude (f): 700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

26 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 52 52 N 1 700 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 52 52 NE 1 700 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 52 52 NE 1 700 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 55 55 NW 0 1023 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 59 60 W 1 1624 1500 0 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 63 65 W 2 2354 1722 222 Blue 7
11 AM Tue 66 68 W 5 2831 2346 846 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 68 71 W 6 2998 2828 1328 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 71 74 W 7 3235 2995 1495 Blue 16
2 PM Tue 72 75 W 9 3687 3042 1542 Blue 17
3 PM Tue 72 74 W 9 3235 2995 1495 Blue 16
4 PM Tue 71 72 W 9 3045 2884 1384 Blue 14
5 PM Tue 69 69 W 9 2887 2513 1013 Blue 11
6 PM Tue 67 67 W 8 2695 2179 679 Blue 9
7 PM Tue 62 62 W 7 1724 1573 73 Blue 4
8 PM Tue 60 60 NW 3 1624 1500 0 Blue 2
9 PM Tue 58 58 N 2 1406 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 56 56 NW 2 1131 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 55 55 W 1 1023 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 54 54 W 1 915 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 53 53 W 1 808 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 52 52 S 1 700 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 52 52 SE 1 700 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 51 51 S 1 630 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 51 51 S 1 630 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 52 52 S 0 700 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 51 51 SE 0 630 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 54 54 E 0 915 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 57 58 SE 1 1406 1500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 60 61 SW 3 1674 1500 0 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 62 64 W 6 2186 1673 173 Blue 6
12 Noon Wed 64 67 W 7 2695 2179 679 Blue 9
1 PM Wed 67 70 W 8 2943 2685 1185 Blue 12
2 PM Wed 67 70 W 9 2943 2685 1185 Blue 12
3 PM Wed 68 70 W 10 2943 2685 1185 Blue 12
4 PM Wed 67 68 W 12 2831 2346 846 Blue 10
5 PM Wed 66 66 W 10 2521 2012 512 Blue 8
6 PM Wed 64 64 W 9 2186 1673 173 Blue 6
7 PM Wed 61 61 NW 7 1674 1500 0 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 60 60 NW 5 1624 1500 0 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 58 58 NW 3 1406 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 57 57 NW 3 1239 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 57 57 NW 2 1239 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 56 56 NW 2 1131 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 55 55 NW 1 1023 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 55 NW 1 1023 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 54 54 W 1 915 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 54 54 W 2 915 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 54 54 W 2 915 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 54 54 W 2 915 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 54 54 NW 2 915 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 56 56 NW 3 1131 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 58 58 NW 5 1406 1500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 59 60 W 6 1624 1500 0 Blue 2
11 AM Thu 61 65 W 7 2354 1722 222 Blue 7
12 Noon Thu 62 67 W 9 2695 2179 679 Blue 9
1 PM Thu 63 68 W 10 2831 2346 846 Blue 10
2 PM Thu 63 68 W 12 2831 2346 846 Blue 10
3 PM Thu 64 67 W 12 2695 2179 679 Blue 9
4 PM Thu 63 65 W 12 2354 1722 222 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 62 63 W 10 2017 1623 123 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 60 60 W 8 1624 1500 0 Blue 2
7 PM Thu 57 57 W 6 1239 1500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 55 55 W 5 1023 1500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 54 54 W 3 915 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 53 53 S 3 808 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 52 52 SE 5 700 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 51 51 SE 3 630 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 50 50 SE 3 630 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 50 50 S 3 630 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 49 49 SE 3 630 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 49 49 E 3 630 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 49 49 E 3 630 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 49 49 E 3 630 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 49 49 E 3 630 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 52 52 NE 3 700 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 56 57 NE 3 1239 1500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 59 62 NE 3 1724 1573 73 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 62 66 NW 6 2521 2012 512 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 65 70 NW 6 2943 2685 1185 Blue 12
1 PM Fri 67 73 NW 6 3104 2940 1440 Blue 15
2 PM Fri 69 74 W 9 3235 2995 1495 Blue 16
3 PM Fri 68 72 W 9 3045 2884 1384 Blue 14
4 PM Fri 67 69 W 9 2887 2513 1013 Blue 11
5 PM Fri 66 67 W 8 2695 2179 679 Blue 9
6 PM Fri 64 64 W 8 2186 1673 173 Blue 6
7 PM Fri 60 60 W 8 1624 1500 0 Blue 2
8 PM Fri 58 58 NW 3 1406 1500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 56 56 NW 3 1131 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 55 55 NW 3 1023 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 54 54 SE 3 915 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 52 52 SE 3 700 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 52 52 SE 3 700 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 51 51 S 3 630 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 50 50 S 3 630 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 50 50 S 3 630 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 50 50 E 7 630 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 50 50 E 7 630 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 50 50 E 7 630 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 53 53 SW 5 808 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 58 59 SW 5 1574 1500 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 61 64 SW 5 2186 1673 173 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 65 70 W 6 2943 2685 1185 Blue 12
12 Noon Sat 67 73 W 6 3104 2940 1440 Blue 15
1 PM Sat 70 76 W 6 4229 3095 1595 Blue 18
2 PM Sat 72 77 W 9 4757 3225 1725 Blue 19
3 PM Sat 71 75 W 9 3687 3042 1542 Blue 17
4 PM Sat 70 72 W 9 3045 2884 1384 Blue 14
5 PM Sat 68 69 NW 12 2887 2513 1013 Blue 11
6 PM Sat 66 66 NW 12 2521 2012 512 Blue 8
7 PM Sat 62 62 NW 12 1724 1573 73 Blue 4
8 PM Sat 59 59 SE 2 1574 1500 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sat 58 58 SE 2 1406 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 56 56 SE 2 1131 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 55 55 NE 6 1023 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 54 54 NE 6 915 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 53 53 NE 6 808 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 52 52 N 9 700 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 52 52 N 9 700 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 51 51 N 9 630 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 51 51 NE 14 630 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 52 52 NE 14 700 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 51 51 NE 14 630 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 55 55 NE 14 1023 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 60 62 NE 14 1724 1573 73 Blue 4
10 AM Sun 64 67 NE 14 2695 2179 679 Blue 9
11 AM Sun 68 73 NE 10 3104 2940 1440 Blue 15
12 Noon Sun 71 77 NE 10 4757 3225 1725 Blue 19
1 PM Sun 75 81 NE 10 6315 5255 3755 Blue 23
2 PM Sun 77 83 NW 7 6944 5971 4471 Blue 25
3 PM Sun 76 80 NW 7 6019 4694 3194 Blue 22
4 PM Sun 75 78 NW 7 5340 3639 2139 Blue 20
5 PM Sun 73 74 W 10 3235 2995 1495 Blue 16
6 PM Sun 70 70 W 10 2943 2685 1185 Blue 12
7 PM Sun 65 65 W 10 2354 1722 222 Blue 7
8 PM Sun 62 62 SW 3 1724 1573 73 Blue 4
9 PM Sun 60 60 SW 3 1624 1500 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 58 58 SW 3 1406 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 57 57 E 3 1239 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 55 55 E 3 1023 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 54 54 E 3 915 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 53 53 E 8 808 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 52 52 E 8 700 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 52 52 E 8 700 1500 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst