Detailed Predictions for: Blossom Valley
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.8766103497, -116.848377211, 1500
LZ Altitude (f): 700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

16 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 60 60 W 2 5 440 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 60 60 W 2 5 440 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 60 60 W 2 5 440 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 59 59 SW 2 5 440 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 59 59 SW 2 5 440 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 58 58 SW 2 5 440 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 58 58 SW 1 5 440 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 58 58 WSW 2 5 440 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 62 62 W 2 6 2357 1500 0 White 1
9 AM Thu 66 66 W 3 8 2532 2501 1001 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 70 71 W 5 10 2581 2551 1051 Blue 10
11 AM Thu 74 79 WSW 5 12 2690 2631 1131 Blue 18
12 Noon Thu 77 84 WSW 6 12 3158 2751 1251 Blue 23
1 PM Thu 80 87 WSW 8 14 3941 3140 1640 Blue 26
2 PM Thu 80 86 W 10 17 3681 2941 1441 Blue 25
3 PM Thu 81 86 W 10 17 3681 2941 1441 Blue 25
4 PM Thu 80 83 W 10 17 2947 2710 1210 Blue 22
5 PM Thu 78 79 W 9 17 2690 2631 1131 Blue 18
6 PM Thu 76 76 W 8 14 2631 2601 1101 Blue 15
7 PM Thu 71 71 W 6 12 2581 2551 1051 Blue 10
8 PM Thu 68 68 W 5 10 2551 2521 1021 Blue 7
9 PM Thu 66 66 W 4 9 2532 2501 1001 Blue 5
10 PM Thu 64 64 W 3 8 2512 1616 116 Blue 3
11 PM Thu 63 63 W 2 6 2502 1500 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Fri 62 62 W 2 6 2357 1500 0 White 1
1 AM Fri 61 61 SW 2 5 1690 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 61 61 SSW 2 5 1690 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 61 61 SSW 2 5 1690 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 61 61 SSW 2 5 1690 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 60 60 SSW 2 5 440 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 60 60 SW 1 5 440 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 60 60 WSW 1 5 440 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 64 64 W 2 5 2512 1616 116 Blue 3
9 AM Fri 67 67 W 3 8 2542 2511 1011 Blue 6
10 AM Fri 71 71 WSW 4 9 2581 2551 1051 Blue 10
11 AM Fri 74 79 WSW 5 11 2690 2631 1131 Blue 18
12 Noon Fri 78 84 WSW 6 13 3158 2751 1251 Blue 23
1 PM Fri 80 86 WSW 8 14 3681 2941 1441 Blue 25
2 PM Fri 80 86 WSW 9 16 3681 2941 1441 Blue 25
3 PM Fri 81 85 WSW 9 17 3420 2848 1348 Blue 24
4 PM Fri 80 83 W 9 16 2947 2710 1210 Blue 22
5 PM Fri 78 79 W 9 16 2690 2631 1131 Blue 18
6 PM Fri 76 76 W 8 13 2631 2601 1101 Blue 15
7 PM Fri 72 72 W 6 12 2591 2561 1061 Blue 11
8 PM Fri 69 69 W 4 10 2561 2531 1031 Blue 8
9 PM Fri 67 67 W 3 9 2542 2511 1011 Blue 6
10 PM Fri 65 65 W 3 8 2522 2491 991 Blue 4
11 PM Fri 64 64 W 2 6 2512 1616 116 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sat 63 63 W 2 6 2502 1500 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sat 62 62 SW 2 6 2357 1500 0 White 1
2 AM Sat 62 62 SW 2 6 2357 1500 0 White 1
3 AM Sat 62 62 SW 2 5 2357 1500 0 White 1
4 AM Sat 62 62 SSW 2 5 2357 1500 0 White 1
5 AM Sat 61 61 SSW 2 5 1690 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 61 61 SW 1 5 1690 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 61 61 W 1 5 1690 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 65 65 W 2 5 2522 2491 991 Blue 4
9 AM Sat 68 69 W 3 8 2561 2531 1031 Blue 8
10 AM Sat 72 75 W 4 10 2621 2591 1091 Blue 14
11 AM Sat 75 80 WSW 5 12 2712 2645 1145 Blue 19
12 Noon Sat 79 85 W 8 13 3420 2848 1348 Blue 24
1 PM Sat 81 87 W 9 16 3941 3140 1640 Blue 26
2 PM Sat 81 86 W 10 17 3681 2941 1441 Blue 25
3 PM Sat 82 86 W 10 18 3681 2941 1441 Blue 25
4 PM Sat 80 83 W 10 18 2947 2710 1210 Blue 22
5 PM Sat 79 80 W 10 17 2712 2645 1145 Blue 19
6 PM Sat 77 77 W 9 16 2646 2611 1111 Blue 16
7 PM Sat 72 72 W 6 12 2591 2561 1061 Blue 11
8 PM Sat 68 68 W 4 10 2551 2521 1021 Blue 7
9 PM Sat 66 66 W 3 9 2532 2501 1001 Blue 5
10 PM Sat 64 64 W 3 8 2512 1616 116 Blue 3
11 PM Sat 63 63 W 2 6 2502 1500 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sun 62 62 W 2 6 2357 1500 0 White 1
1 AM Sun 61 61 NW 2 6 1690 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 61 61 NNW 2 6 1690 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 61 61 NNW 2 6 1690 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 61 61 NNW 3 8 1690 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 60 60 N 3 8 440 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 60 60 N 3 8 440 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 60 60 N 3 8 440 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 64 64 WNW 2 6 2512 1616 116 Blue 3
9 AM Sun 67 68 WNW 2 6 2551 2521 1021 Blue 7
10 AM Sun 70 72 WNW 2 6 2591 2561 1061 Blue 11
11 AM Sun 74 79 W 5 11 2690 2631 1131 Blue 18
12 Noon Sun 77 83 W 5 11 2947 2710 1210 Blue 22
1 PM Sun 79 85 W 5 11 3420 2848 1348 Blue 24
2 PM Sun 79 85 W 8 14 3420 2848 1348 Blue 24
3 PM Sun 80 84 W 8 14 3158 2751 1251 Blue 23
4 PM Sun 79 82 W 8 14 2854 2688 1188 Blue 21
5 PM Sun 77 78 W 6 13 2668 2621 1121 Blue 17
6 PM Sun 75 75 W 6 13 2621 2591 1091 Blue 14
7 PM Sun 70 70 W 6 13 2571 2541 1041 Blue 9
8 PM Sun 67 67 WNW 3 9 2542 2511 1011 Blue 6
9 PM Sun 65 65 WNW 3 9 2522 2491 991 Blue 4
10 PM Sun 63 63 WNW 3 9 2502 1500 0 Blue 2
11 PM Sun 62 62 SW 2 5 2357 1500 0 White 1
12 Midnight Mon 61 61 SW 2 5 1690 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 60 60 SW 2 5 440 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 60 60 SSW 2 6 440 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 60 60 SSW 2 6 440 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 60 60 SSW 2 6 440 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 59 59 NW 2 5 440 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 59 59 NW 2 5 440 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 59 59 NW 2 5 440 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 63 63 SW 1 4 2502 1500 0 Blue 2
9 AM Mon 67 68 SW 1 4 2551 2521 1021 Blue 7
10 AM Mon 70 72 SW 1 4 2591 2561 1061 Blue 11
11 AM Mon 74 79 WSW 4 10 2690 2631 1131 Blue 18
12 Noon Mon 78 84 WSW 4 10 3158 2751 1251 Blue 23
1 PM Mon 80 86 WSW 4 10 3681 2941 1441 Blue 25
2 PM Mon 80 86 WSW 6 13 3681 2941 1441 Blue 25
3 PM Mon 81 85 WSW 6 13 3420 2848 1348 Blue 24
4 PM Mon 80 83 WSW 6 13 2947 2710 1210 Blue 22
5 PM Mon 78 79 WSW 6 12 2690 2631 1131 Blue 18
6 PM Mon 76 76 WSW 6 12 2631 2601 1101 Blue 15
7 PM Mon 72 72 WSW 6 12 2591 2561 1061 Blue 11
8 PM Mon 69 69 SW 4 9 2561 2531 1031 Blue 8
9 PM Mon 67 67 SW 4 9 2542 2511 1011 Blue 6
10 PM Mon 65 65 SW 4 9 2522 2491 991 Blue 4
11 PM Mon 64 64 SW 2 5 2512 1616 116 Blue 3
12 Midnight Tue 63 63 SW 2 5 2502 1500 0 Blue 2
1 AM Tue 62 62 SW 2 5 2357 1500 0 White 1
2 AM Tue 62 62 S 2 5 2357 1500 0 White 1
3 AM Tue 62 62 S 2 5 2357 1500 0 White 1
4 AM Tue 62 62 S 2 5 2357 1500 0 White 1
5 AM Tue 61 61 SW 2 6 1690 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 61 61 SW 2 6 1690 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 61 61 SW 2 6 1690 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 65 65 WSW 2 6 2522 2491 991 Blue 4
9 AM Tue 69 70 WSW 2 6 2571 2541 1041 Blue 9
10 AM Tue 73 76 WSW 2 6 2631 2601 1101 Blue 15
11 AM Tue 77 82 W 4 9 2854 2688 1188 Blue 21
12 Noon Tue 81 87 W 4 9 3941 3140 1640 Blue 26
1 PM Tue 84 90 W 4 9 4712 3916 2416 Blue 29
2 PM Tue 84 90 WSW 8 14 4712 3916 2416 Blue 29
3 PM Tue 84 88 WSW 8 14 4199 3400 1900 Blue 27
4 PM Tue 84 87 WSW 8 14 3941 3140 1640 Blue 26
5 PM Tue 82 83 WSW 5 12 2947 2710 1210 Blue 22
6 PM Tue 80 80 WSW 5 12 2712 2645 1145 Blue 19
7 PM Tue 74 74 WSW 5 12 2611 2581 1081 Blue 13
8 PM Tue 71 71 W 4 9 2581 2551 1051 Blue 10
9 PM Tue 68 68 W 4 9 2551 2521 1021 Blue 7
10 PM Tue 67 67 W 4 9 2542 2511 1011 Blue 6

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst