Detailed Predictions for: Blossom Valley
Launch Altitude (f): 1500
LZ Altitude (f): 700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

22 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 64 64 NE 1 456 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 65 65 NE 1 551 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 67 67 E 0 1169 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 70 71 W 2 1590 1500 0 Blue 4
9 AM Sun 74 76 W 3 1927 1714 214 Blue 9
10 AM Sun 79 83 W 5 3073 2469 969 Blue 16
11 AM Sun 83 89 W 9 3899 3392 1892 Blue 22
12 Noon Sun 86 94 W 10 5245 4244 2744 Blue 27
1 PM Sun 87 95 W 9 5403 4353 2853 Blue 28
2 PM Sun 87 94 W 12 5245 4244 2744 Blue 27
3 PM Sun 88 94 W 10 5245 4244 2744 Blue 27
4 PM Sun 87 91 W 12 4255 3612 2112 Blue 24
5 PM Sun 86 88 W 10 3621 3282 1782 Blue 21
6 PM Sun 83 84 W 10 3180 2698 1198 Blue 17
7 PM Sun 80 80 NW 10 2477 2004 504 Blue 13
8 PM Sun 76 76 NW 7 1927 1714 214 Blue 9
9 PM Sun 74 74 W 6 1771 1589 89 Blue 7
10 PM Sun 72 72 W 6 1654 1500 0 Blue 5
11 PM Sun 70 70 SW 2 1526 1500 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Mon 69 69 SW 2 1408 1500 0 Blue 2
1 AM Mon 68 68 SW 1 1289 1500 0 Blue 1
2 AM Mon 67 67 SW 0 1169 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 66 66 SW 0 880 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 65 65 S 0 551 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 65 65 S 0 551 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 66 66 S 0 880 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 68 68 S 0 1289 1500 0 Blue 1
8 AM Mon 71 72 SW 2 1654 1500 0 Blue 5
9 AM Mon 76 78 W 3 2074 1830 330 Blue 11
10 AM Mon 81 85 W 3 3290 2971 1471 Blue 18
11 AM Mon 86 93 W 7 4731 4134 2634 Blue 26
12 Noon Mon 89 97 W 8 5631 5192 3692 Blue 30
1 PM Mon 92 100 W 8 6948 5590 4090 Blue 33
2 PM Mon 93 100 W 10 6948 5590 4090 Blue 33
3 PM Mon 93 99 W 10 6296 5490 3990 Blue 32
4 PM Mon 94 98 W 10 5917 5389 3889 Blue 31
5 PM Mon 92 94 W 9 5245 4244 2744 Blue 27
6 PM Mon 90 91 W 9 4255 3612 2112 Blue 24
7 PM Mon 86 86 W 8 3401 3067 1567 Blue 19
8 PM Mon 83 83 W 6 3073 2469 969 Blue 16
9 PM Mon 80 80 W 5 2477 2004 504 Blue 13
10 PM Mon 77 77 W 5 2007 1770 270 Blue 10
11 PM Mon 74 74 SW 3 1771 1589 89 Blue 7
12 Midnight Tue 72 72 SW 2 1654 1500 0 Blue 5
1 AM Tue 71 71 SW 1 1590 1500 0 Blue 4
2 AM Tue 70 70 SW 1 1526 1500 0 Blue 3
3 AM Tue 70 70 W 1 1526 1500 0 Blue 3
4 AM Tue 70 70 W 1 1526 1500 0 Blue 3
5 AM Tue 71 71 NW 1 1590 1500 0 Blue 4
6 AM Tue 72 72 NW 1 1654 1500 0 Blue 5
7 AM Tue 75 75 NW 1 1832 1652 152 Blue 8
8 AM Tue 78 79 W 3 2298 1924 424 Blue 12
9 AM Tue 83 86 W 5 3401 3067 1567 Blue 19
10 AM Tue 88 93 W 6 4731 4134 2634 Blue 26
11 AM Tue 93 100 W 7 6948 5590 4090 Blue 33
12 Noon Tue 96 104 W 8 8842 7169 5669 Blue 37
1 PM Tue 99 107 W 9 9620 8750 7250 Blue 40
2 PM Tue 100 108 W 12 9993 9111 7611 Blue 41
3 PM Tue 100 106 W 12 9351 8361 6861 Blue 39
4 PM Tue 101 105 W 10 9181 7714 6214 Blue 38
5 PM Tue 99 101 W 10 7223 5873 4373 Blue 34
6 PM Tue 97 98 W 8 5917 5389 3889 Blue 31
7 PM Tue 94 94 W 7 5245 4244 2744 Blue 27
8 PM Tue 91 91 W 6 4255 3612 2112 Blue 24
9 PM Tue 87 87 W 5 3511 3172 1672 Blue 20
10 PM Tue 83 83 W 5 3073 2469 969 Blue 16
11 PM Tue 80 80 SW 3 2477 2004 504 Blue 13
12 Midnight Wed 78 78 SW 3 2074 1830 330 Blue 11
1 AM Wed 76 76 SW 2 1927 1714 214 Blue 9
2 AM Wed 75 75 SW 1 1832 1652 152 Blue 8
3 AM Wed 74 74 W 1 1771 1589 89 Blue 7
4 AM Wed 73 73 W 1 1715 1525 25 Blue 6
5 AM Wed 73 73 W 1 1715 1525 25 Blue 6
6 AM Wed 74 74 W 1 1771 1589 89 Blue 7
7 AM Wed 77 77 W 1 2007 1770 270 Blue 10
8 AM Wed 80 81 W 3 2716 2071 571 Blue 14
9 AM Wed 85 87 W 3 3511 3172 1672 Blue 20
10 AM Wed 91 95 W 3 5403 4353 2853 Blue 28
11 AM Wed 96 102 W 9 7859 6233 4733 Blue 35
12 Noon Wed 100 108 W 9 9993 9111 7611 Blue 41
1 PM Wed 102 110 W 9 10513 9493 7993 Blue 43
2 PM Wed 103 110 W 13 10513 9493 7993 Blue 43
3 PM Wed 102 108 W 13 9993 9111 7611 Blue 41
4 PM Wed 101 105 W 13 9181 7714 6214 Blue 38
5 PM Wed 98 100 W 8 6948 5590 4090 Blue 33
6 PM Wed 94 95 W 8 5403 4353 2853 Blue 28
7 PM Wed 91 91 W 8 4255 3612 2112 Blue 24
8 PM Wed 87 87 W 6 3511 3172 1672 Blue 20
9 PM Wed 84 84 W 6 3180 2698 1198 Blue 17
10 PM Wed 81 81 W 6 2716 2071 571 Blue 14
11 PM Wed 79 79 SW 1 2298 1924 424 Blue 12
12 Midnight Thu 78 78 SW 1 2074 1830 330 Blue 11
1 AM Thu 77 77 SW 1 2007 1770 270 Blue 10
2 AM Thu 76 76 NE 0 1927 1714 214 Blue 9
3 AM Thu 75 75 NE 0 1832 1652 152 Blue 8
4 AM Thu 74 74 NE 0 1771 1589 89 Blue 7
5 AM Thu 73 73 W 0 1715 1525 25 Blue 6
6 AM Thu 73 73 W 0 1715 1525 25 Blue 6
7 AM Thu 74 74 W 0 1771 1589 89 Blue 7
8 AM Thu 76 77 W 3 2007 1770 270 Blue 10
9 AM Thu 80 83 W 3 3073 2469 969 Blue 16
10 AM Thu 85 89 W 3 3899 3392 1892 Blue 22
11 AM Thu 89 95 SW 10 5403 4353 2853 Blue 28
12 Noon Thu 92 100 SW 10 6948 5590 4090 Blue 33
1 PM Thu 94 102 SW 10 7859 6233 4733 Blue 35
2 PM Thu 94 102 W 13 7859 6233 4733 Blue 35
3 PM Thu 93 99 W 13 6296 5490 3990 Blue 32
4 PM Thu 92 96 W 13 5504 4629 3129 Blue 29
5 PM Thu 90 92 SW 9 4365 3871 2371 Blue 25
6 PM Thu 88 89 SW 9 3899 3392 1892 Blue 22
7 PM Thu 85 85 SW 9 3290 2971 1471 Blue 18
8 PM Thu 82 82 SW 7 2977 2290 790 Blue 15
9 PM Thu 79 79 SW 7 2298 1924 424 Blue 12
10 PM Thu 76 76 SW 7 1927 1714 214 Blue 9
11 PM Thu 74 74 SW 1 1771 1589 89 Blue 7
12 Midnight Fri 74 74 SW 1 1771 1589 89 Blue 7
1 AM Fri 74 74 SW 1 1771 1589 89 Blue 7
2 AM Fri 74 74 W 1 1771 1589 89 Blue 7
3 AM Fri 72 72 W 1 1654 1500 0 Blue 5
4 AM Fri 69 69 W 1 1408 1500 0 Blue 2
5 AM Fri 68 68 SW 0 1289 1500 0 Blue 1
6 AM Fri 69 69 SW 0 1408 1500 0 Blue 2
7 AM Fri 72 72 SW 0 1654 1500 0 Blue 5
8 AM Fri 76 77 W 2 2007 1770 270 Blue 10
9 AM Fri 79 81 W 2 2716 2071 571 Blue 14
10 AM Fri 83 87 W 2 3511 3172 1672 Blue 20
11 AM Fri 85 90 SW 8 4145 3502 2002 Blue 23
12 Noon Fri 87 93 SW 8 4731 4134 2634 Blue 26
1 PM Fri 88 94 SW 8 5245 4244 2744 Blue 27
2 PM Fri 89 95 SW 12 5403 4353 2853 Blue 28
3 PM Fri 89 94 SW 12 5245 4244 2744 Blue 27
4 PM Fri 88 91 SW 12 4255 3612 2112 Blue 24
5 PM Fri 86 88 SW 8 3621 3282 1782 Blue 21
6 PM Fri 84 84 SW 8 3180 2698 1198 Blue 17
7 PM Fri 81 81 SW 8 2716 2071 571 Blue 14
8 PM Fri 78 78 W 6 2074 1830 330 Blue 11
9 PM Fri 76 76 W 6 1927 1714 214 Blue 9
10 PM Fri 75 75 W 6 1832 1652 152 Blue 8
11 PM Fri 74 74 W 2 1771 1589 89 Blue 7
12 Midnight Sat 73 73 W 2 1715 1525 25 Blue 6
1 AM Sat 72 72 W 2 1654 1500 0 Blue 5
2 AM Sat 71 71 SW 0 1590 1500 0 Blue 4
3 AM Sat 70 70 SW 0 1526 1500 0 Blue 3
4 AM Sat 69 69 SW 0 1408 1500 0 Blue 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst