Detailed Predictions for: Blossom Valley
Launch Altitude (f): 1500
LZ Altitude (f): 700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

16 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 66 66 E 2 990 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 68 68 NE 2 1046 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 71 71 E 2 1145 1500 0 Blue 3
8 AM Tue 75 76 W 1 1327 1500 0 Blue 8
9 AM Tue 79 82 W 2 1601 1500 0 Blue 14
10 AM Tue 83 88 W 2 2144 1737 237 Blue 20
11 AM Tue 86 93 W 3 3374 2472 972 Blue 25
12 Noon Tue 88 96 W 5 4413 3329 1829 Blue 28
1 PM Tue 90 98 W 6 4977 4098 2598 Blue 30
2 PM Tue 89 97 W 7 4698 3811 2311 Blue 29
3 PM Tue 90 97 W 8 4698 3811 2311 Blue 29
4 PM Tue 88 93 W 8 3374 2472 972 Blue 25
5 PM Tue 86 89 W 7 2312 1804 304 Blue 21
6 PM Tue 83 84 W 6 1693 1555 55 Blue 16
7 PM Tue 79 79 W 5 1464 1500 0 Blue 11
8 PM Tue 75 75 W 2 1282 1500 0 Blue 7
9 PM Tue 71 71 W 2 1145 1500 0 Blue 3
10 PM Tue 68 68 W 2 1046 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 66 66 W 2 990 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 64 64 W 2 936 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 63 63 W 2 919 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 62 62 SW 1 919 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 62 62 S 1 919 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 61 61 S 2 919 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 61 61 S 2 919 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 61 61 SW 2 919 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 62 62 SW 2 919 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 65 65 W 2 963 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 70 71 W 2 1145 1500 0 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 76 79 SW 3 1464 1500 0 Blue 11
11 AM Wed 80 87 SW 5 1976 1691 191 Blue 19
12 Noon Wed 83 91 SW 6 2658 2138 638 Blue 23
1 PM Wed 83 91 SW 6 2658 2138 638 Blue 23
2 PM Wed 83 91 SW 7 2658 2138 638 Blue 23
3 PM Wed 84 90 SW 7 2480 1971 471 Blue 22
4 PM Wed 82 86 SW 7 1808 1646 146 Blue 18
5 PM Wed 81 83 SW 6 1647 1509 9 Blue 15
6 PM Wed 78 79 SW 5 1464 1500 0 Blue 11
7 PM Wed 75 75 SW 5 1282 1500 0 Blue 7
8 PM Wed 71 71 SW 3 1145 1500 0 Blue 3
9 PM Wed 68 68 SW 2 1046 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 66 66 W 2 990 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 64 64 W 2 936 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 63 63 W 2 919 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 62 62 W 2 919 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 62 62 W 2 919 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 61 61 W 2 919 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 60 60 W 2 919 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 59 59 W 2 919 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 59 59 W 1 919 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 60 60 W 1 919 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 62 62 W 1 919 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 66 66 W 2 990 1500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 70 70 W 3 1112 1500 0 Blue 2
11 AM Thu 74 79 W 5 1464 1500 0 Blue 11
12 Noon Thu 77 83 W 6 1647 1509 9 Blue 15
1 PM Thu 79 86 W 7 1808 1646 146 Blue 18
2 PM Thu 81 87 W 8 1976 1691 191 Blue 19
3 PM Thu 80 85 W 8 1738 1600 100 Blue 17
4 PM Thu 80 84 W 7 1693 1555 55 Blue 16
5 PM Thu 79 81 W 7 1555 1500 0 Blue 13
6 PM Thu 76 77 W 6 1373 1500 0 Blue 9
7 PM Thu 73 73 W 5 1211 1500 0 Blue 5
8 PM Thu 70 70 W 5 1112 1500 0 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 67 67 W 3 1017 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 65 65 W 2 963 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 63 63 W 2 919 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 62 62 W 2 919 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 61 61 W 1 919 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 60 60 W 2 919 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 60 60 W 2 919 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 59 59 W 2 919 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 58 58 NW 2 919 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 58 58 NW 2 919 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 59 59 NW 2 919 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 61 61 W 2 919 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 64 64 W 2 936 1500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 68 69 W 2 1079 1500 0 Blue 1
11 AM Fri 72 79 W 3 1464 1500 0 Blue 11
12 Noon Fri 76 84 W 3 1693 1555 55 Blue 16
1 PM Fri 78 86 W 3 1808 1646 146 Blue 18
2 PM Fri 78 86 W 8 1808 1646 146 Blue 18
3 PM Fri 78 85 W 8 1738 1600 100 Blue 17
4 PM Fri 78 83 W 8 1647 1509 9 Blue 15
5 PM Fri 76 79 W 7 1464 1500 0 Blue 11
6 PM Fri 74 75 W 7 1282 1500 0 Blue 7
7 PM Fri 71 71 W 7 1145 1500 0 Blue 3
8 PM Fri 68 68 W 5 1046 1500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 66 66 W 5 990 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 64 64 W 5 936 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 62 62 W 2 919 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 61 61 W 2 919 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 60 60 W 2 919 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 60 60 W 2 919 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 60 60 W 2 919 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 59 59 W 2 919 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 58 58 NW 2 919 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 58 58 NW 2 919 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 58 58 NW 2 919 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 60 60 NW 2 919 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 64 64 NW 2 936 1500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 69 70 NW 2 1112 1500 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 74 80 W 5 1510 1500 0 Blue 12
12 Noon Sat 77 85 W 5 1738 1600 100 Blue 17
1 PM Sat 79 87 W 5 1976 1691 191 Blue 19
2 PM Sat 79 86 W 8 1808 1646 146 Blue 18
3 PM Sat 79 85 W 8 1738 1600 100 Blue 17
4 PM Sat 79 83 W 8 1647 1509 9 Blue 15
5 PM Sat 78 80 W 7 1510 1500 0 Blue 12
6 PM Sat 75 76 W 7 1327 1500 0 Blue 8
7 PM Sat 72 72 W 7 1178 1500 0 Blue 4
8 PM Sat 70 70 NW 5 1112 1500 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sat 67 67 NW 5 1017 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 66 66 NW 5 990 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 65 65 NW 2 963 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 64 64 NW 2 936 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 63 63 NW 2 919 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 62 62 NW 2 919 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 60 60 NW 2 919 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 59 59 NW 2 919 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 58 58 NE 2 919 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 58 58 NE 2 919 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 60 60 NE 2 919 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 62 62 W 2 919 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 67 68 W 2 1046 1500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 72 74 W 2 1244 1500 0 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 76 81 W 3 1555 1500 0 Blue 13
12 Noon Sun 80 86 W 3 1808 1646 146 Blue 18
1 PM Sun 81 88 W 3 2144 1737 237 Blue 20
2 PM Sun 81 87 W 7 1976 1691 191 Blue 19
3 PM Sun 81 86 W 7 1808 1646 146 Blue 18
4 PM Sun 81 85 W 7 1738 1600 100 Blue 17
5 PM Sun 80 82 W 7 1601 1500 0 Blue 14
6 PM Sun 78 79 W 7 1464 1500 0 Blue 11
7 PM Sun 75 75 W 7 1282 1500 0 Blue 7
8 PM Sun 72 72 W 5 1178 1500 0 Blue 4
9 PM Sun 70 70 W 5 1112 1500 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 67 67 W 5 1017 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 66 66 W 2 990 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 65 65 W 2 963 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 64 64 W 2 936 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 64 64 W 2 936 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 63 63 W 2 919 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 62 62 W 2 919 1500 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst