Detailed Predictions for: Blossom Valley
Launch Altitude (f): 1500
LZ Altitude (f): 700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Tue 57 57 E 23 787 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 56 56 E 24 787 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 56 56 E 24 787 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 57 57 E 28 787 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 60 60 E 25 787 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 64 65 E 26 2820 1500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 67 69 E 25 4428 3346 1846 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 70 73 E 25 4563 4465 2965 Blue 8
12 Noon Tue 72 75 E 24 4661 4528 3028 Blue 10
1 PM Tue 72 74 E 21 4594 4496 2996 Blue 9
2 PM Tue 72 73 E 21 4563 4465 2965 Blue 8
3 PM Tue 69 69 E 21 4428 3346 1846 Blue 4
4 PM Tue 65 65 E 18 2820 1500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 62 62 E 20 839 1500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 59 59 E 18 787 1500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 58 58 E 18 787 1500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 57 57 E 18 787 1500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 56 56 E 18 787 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 57 57 E 20 787 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 57 57 E 20 787 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 58 58 E 20 787 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 58 58 E 20 787 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 58 58 E 18 787 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 58 58 E 18 787 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 57 57 E 17 787 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 56 56 E 17 787 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 56 56 E 17 787 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 58 58 E 18 787 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 62 62 E 15 839 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 67 68 E 13 4342 2784 1284 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 72 74 E 8 4594 4496 2996 Blue 9
11 AM Wed 75 78 E 9 5669 4652 3152 Blue 13
12 Noon Wed 78 81 E 9 5896 5625 4125 Blue 16
1 PM Wed 77 79 E 10 5745 4861 3361 Blue 14
2 PM Wed 77 78 E 10 5669 4652 3152 Blue 13
3 PM Wed 75 75 E 10 4661 4528 3028 Blue 10
4 PM Wed 73 73 E 12 4563 4465 2965 Blue 8
5 PM Wed 70 70 E 12 4469 3885 2385 Blue 5
6 PM Wed 67 67 E 13 3937 2164 664 Blue 2
7 PM Wed 65 65 E 13 2820 1500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 63 63 E 12 1530 1500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 62 62 E 9 839 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 60 60 E 8 787 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 60 60 E 8 787 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 59 59 E 8 787 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 58 58 E 9 787 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 57 57 E 10 787 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 56 56 E 12 787 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 56 56 E 13 787 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 56 56 E 13 787 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 57 57 E 12 787 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 60 60 E 10 787 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 63 63 NE 9 1530 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 68 69 NW 8 4428 3346 1846 Blue 4
10 AM Thu 72 74 W 7 4594 4496 2996 Blue 9
11 AM Thu 75 78 W 7 5669 4652 3152 Blue 13
12 Noon Thu 76 79 W 8 5745 4861 3361 Blue 14
1 PM Thu 76 79 W 9 5745 4861 3361 Blue 14
2 PM Thu 77 79 W 9 5745 4861 3361 Blue 14
3 PM Thu 76 77 W 8 5302 4591 3091 Blue 12
4 PM Thu 73 73 W 7 4563 4465 2965 Blue 8
5 PM Thu 69 69 NW 6 4428 3346 1846 Blue 4
6 PM Thu 64 64 NE 3 2189 1500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 60 60 E 2 787 1500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 58 58 E 1 787 1500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 57 57 S 1 787 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 57 57 S 1 787 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 57 57 S 1 787 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 56 56 E 2 787 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 56 56 E 2 787 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 55 55 E 2 787 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 54 54 E 2 787 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 53 53 SE 2 787 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 53 53 SE 2 787 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 54 54 SE 2 787 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 56 56 NE 3 787 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 60 60 NE 3 787 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 65 66 NE 3 3389 1518 18 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 69 71 W 5 4500 4333 2833 Blue 6
11 AM Fri 72 74 W 5 4594 4496 2996 Blue 9
12 Noon Fri 73 75 W 5 4661 4528 3028 Blue 10
1 PM Fri 73 75 W 8 4661 4528 3028 Blue 10
2 PM Fri 73 74 W 8 4594 4496 2996 Blue 9
3 PM Fri 72 72 W 8 4531 4418 2918 Blue 7
4 PM Fri 70 70 W 8 4469 3885 2385 Blue 5
5 PM Fri 67 67 W 8 3937 2164 664 Blue 2
6 PM Fri 63 63 W 8 1530 1500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 59 59 S 1 787 1500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 57 57 S 1 787 1500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 55 55 S 1 787 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 54 54 S 1 787 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 53 53 S 1 787 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 53 53 S 1 787 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 52 52 NE 1 787 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 51 51 NE 1 787 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 50 50 NE 1 787 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 50 50 NE 3 787 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 51 51 NE 3 787 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 53 53 NE 3 787 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 56 56 E 2 787 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 59 59 E 2 787 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 61 62 E 2 839 1500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 64 66 W 5 3389 1518 18 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 68 70 W 5 4469 3885 2385 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 71 73 W 5 4563 4465 2965 Blue 8
1 PM Sat 73 75 W 7 4661 4528 3028 Blue 10
2 PM Sat 73 74 W 7 4594 4496 2996 Blue 9
3 PM Sat 72 72 W 7 4531 4418 2918 Blue 7
4 PM Sat 69 69 W 7 4428 3346 1846 Blue 4
5 PM Sat 66 66 W 7 3389 1518 18 Blue 1
6 PM Sat 62 62 W 7 839 1500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 59 59 E 2 787 1500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 56 56 E 2 787 1500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 55 55 E 2 787 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 54 54 SE 2 787 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 54 54 SE 2 787 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 55 55 SE 2 787 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 56 56 N 1 787 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 57 57 N 1 787 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 57 57 N 1 787 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 56 56 SE 1 787 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 54 54 SE 1 787 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 53 53 SE 1 787 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 54 54 N 1 787 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 59 59 N 1 787 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 65 66 N 1 3389 1518 18 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 70 72 SW 2 4531 4418 2918 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 72 74 SW 2 4594 4496 2996 Blue 9
12 Noon Sun 72 74 SW 2 4594 4496 2996 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 72 74 W 7 4594 4496 2996 Blue 9
2 PM Sun 73 74 W 7 4594 4496 2996 Blue 9
3 PM Sun 73 73 W 7 4563 4465 2965 Blue 8
4 PM Sun 72 72 W 3 4531 4418 2918 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 68 68 W 3 4342 2784 1284 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 62 62 W 3 839 1500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 58 58 NW 1 787 1500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 56 56 NW 1 787 1500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 56 56 NW 1 787 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 56 56 NE 2 787 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 56 56 NE 2 787 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 56 56 NE 2 787 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 56 56 E 3 787 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 57 57 E 3 787 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 59 59 E 3 787 1500 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst