Detailed Predictions for: Blossom Valley
Launch Altitude (f): 1500
LZ Altitude (f): 700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

26 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 52 52 SE 6 607 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 53 53 SE 6 607 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 54 54 S 7 607 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 54 54 S 7 607 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 54 54 S 8 607 1500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 54 54 S 8 607 1500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 53 53 W 9 607 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 53 53 SW 7 607 1500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 54 54 SW 8 607 1500 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 55 55 SW 9 607 1500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 56 56 SW 9 1362 1500 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sun 57 57 SW 10 1923 1500 0 Blue 2
5 PM Sun 56 56 SW 12 1362 1500 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sun 56 56 SW 10 1362 1500 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 55 55 SW 10 607 1500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 54 54 SW 12 607 1500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 53 53 W 9 607 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 53 53 SW 9 607 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 53 53 W 9 607 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 52 52 W 8 607 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 52 52 W 8 607 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 51 51 W 7 607 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 50 50 W 7 607 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 48 48 W 6 607 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 48 48 NW 5 607 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 48 48 W 5 607 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 50 50 W 5 607 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 51 51 W 5 607 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 52 53 W 6 607 1500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 53 55 W 7 607 1500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 55 60 W 8 3142 1913 413 White 5
12 Noon Mon 56 61 W 9 3357 2292 792 White 6
1 PM Mon 58 63 W 9 3787 3787 2287 White 8
2 PM Mon 59 64 W 9 4001 4001 2501 White 9
3 PM Mon 60 64 W 10 4001 4001 2501 White 9
4 PM Mon 59 62 W 10 3572 3572 2072 White 7
5 PM Mon 60 61 W 10 3357 2292 792 White 6
6 PM Mon 58 58 W 10 2325 1500 0 Blue 3
7 PM Mon 56 56 W 9 1362 1500 0 Blue 1
8 PM Mon 55 55 NW 8 607 1500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 53 53 NW 6 607 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 52 52 NW 5 607 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 52 52 NW 2 607 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 51 51 NW 2 607 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 50 50 N 1 607 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 50 50 N 1 607 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 49 49 N 1 607 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 48 48 NE 2 607 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 48 48 E 2 607 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 49 49 E 2 607 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 51 51 S 1 607 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 53 53 SW 1 607 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 56 56 SW 2 1362 1500 0 Blue 1
10 AM Tue 58 59 SW 3 2925 1500 0 White 4
11 AM Tue 61 66 W 6 4429 4429 2929 White 11
12 Noon Tue 63 68 W 7 4867 4867 3367 White 13
1 PM Tue 65 71 W 8 5494 5494 3994 White 16
2 PM Tue 67 72 W 9 5702 5702 4202 White 17
3 PM Tue 66 70 W 9 5286 5286 3786 White 15
4 PM Tue 66 69 W 9 5077 5077 3577 White 14
5 PM Tue 66 67 W 8 4646 4646 3146 White 12
6 PM Tue 64 64 W 7 4001 4001 2501 White 9
7 PM Tue 63 63 W 7 3787 3787 2287 White 8
8 PM Tue 61 61 W 6 3357 2292 792 White 6
9 PM Tue 60 60 W 5 3142 1913 413 White 5
10 PM Tue 60 60 W 3 3142 1913 413 White 5
11 PM Tue 59 59 SW 2 2925 1500 0 White 4
12 Midnight Wed 57 57 SW 2 1923 1500 0 Blue 2
1 AM Wed 56 56 SW 1 1362 1500 0 Blue 1
2 AM Wed 55 55 S 1 607 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 54 54 SW 1 607 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 53 53 SW 2 607 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 53 53 W 2 607 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 52 52 W 2 607 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 52 52 W 2 607 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 54 54 SW 2 607 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 57 58 SW 2 2325 1500 0 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 62 64 SW 2 4001 4001 2501 White 9
11 AM Wed 66 72 SW 6 5702 5702 4202 White 17
12 Noon Wed 69 76 SW 6 6544 6266 4766 White 21
1 PM Wed 70 77 SW 6 6755 6428 4928 White 22
2 PM Wed 71 77 SW 9 6755 6428 4928 White 22
3 PM Wed 71 76 SW 9 6544 6266 4766 White 21
4 PM Wed 70 73 SW 9 5912 5862 4362 White 18
5 PM Wed 69 71 SW 8 5494 5494 3994 White 16
6 PM Wed 68 68 SW 8 4867 4867 3367 White 13
7 PM Wed 65 65 SW 8 4216 4216 2716 White 10
8 PM Wed 63 63 SW 5 3787 3787 2287 White 8
9 PM Wed 61 61 SW 5 3357 2292 792 White 6
10 PM Wed 60 60 SW 5 3142 1913 413 White 5
11 PM Wed 58 58 SW 3 2325 1500 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Thu 57 57 SW 3 1923 1500 0 Blue 2
1 AM Thu 56 56 SW 3 1362 1500 0 Blue 1
2 AM Thu 55 55 SW 3 607 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 54 54 SW 3 607 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 54 54 SW 3 607 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 54 54 W 1 607 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 54 54 W 1 607 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 55 55 W 1 607 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 57 57 W 2 1923 1500 0 Blue 2
9 AM Thu 60 61 W 2 3357 2292 792 White 6
10 AM Thu 64 66 W 2 4429 4429 2929 White 11
11 AM Thu 68 75 W 6 6334 6105 4605 White 20
12 Noon Thu 71 79 W 6 7174 6750 5250 White 24
1 PM Thu 73 81 W 6 7591 7136 5636 White 26
2 PM Thu 74 81 SW 9 7591 7136 5636 White 26
3 PM Thu 74 80 SW 9 7382 6911 5411 White 25
4 PM Thu 73 77 SW 9 6755 6428 4928 White 22
5 PM Thu 71 73 W 8 5912 5862 4362 White 18
6 PM Thu 69 69 W 8 5077 5077 3577 White 14
7 PM Thu 67 67 W 8 4646 4646 3146 White 12
8 PM Thu 65 65 W 6 4216 4216 2716 White 10
9 PM Thu 63 63 W 6 3787 3787 2287 White 8
10 PM Thu 61 61 W 6 3357 2292 792 White 6
11 PM Thu 60 60 SW 3 3142 1913 413 White 5
12 Midnight Fri 58 58 SW 3 2325 1500 0 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 57 57 SW 3 1923 1500 0 Blue 2
2 AM Fri 56 56 W 1 1362 1500 0 Blue 1
3 AM Fri 56 56 W 1 1362 1500 0 Blue 1
4 AM Fri 56 56 W 1 1362 1500 0 Blue 1
5 AM Fri 55 55 NW 1 607 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 55 55 NW 1 607 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 55 55 NW 1 607 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 56 56 SW 2 1362 1500 0 Blue 1
9 AM Fri 59 60 SW 2 3142 1913 413 White 5
10 AM Fri 63 65 SW 2 4216 4216 2716 White 10
11 AM Fri 67 74 W 6 6122 5978 4478 White 19
12 Noon Fri 69 77 W 6 6755 6428 4928 White 22
1 PM Fri 71 79 W 6 7174 6750 5250 White 24
2 PM Fri 72 79 W 10 7174 6750 5250 White 24
3 PM Fri 72 78 W 10 6964 6589 5089 White 23
4 PM Fri 71 75 W 10 6334 6105 4605 White 20
5 PM Fri 70 72 W 8 5702 5702 4202 White 17
6 PM Fri 68 68 W 8 4867 4867 3367 White 13
7 PM Fri 66 66 W 8 4429 4429 2929 White 11
8 PM Fri 64 64 W 6 4001 4001 2501 White 9
9 PM Fri 61 61 W 6 3357 2292 792 White 6
10 PM Fri 59 59 W 6 2925 1500 0 White 4
11 PM Fri 57 57 SW 3 1923 1500 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sat 56 56 SW 3 1362 1500 0 Blue 1
1 AM Sat 55 55 SW 3 607 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 55 55 S 2 607 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 54 54 S 2 607 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 54 54 S 2 607 1500 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst