Detailed Predictions for: Blossom Valley
Launch Altitude (f): 1500
LZ Altitude (f): 700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Thu 54 54 SE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 54 54 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 55 55 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 54 54 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 56 56 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 58 58 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 59 59 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 60 60 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 60 60 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 62 62 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 61 61 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 61 61 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 61 61 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 59 59 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 56 56 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 55 55 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 54 54 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 53 53 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 53 53 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 52 52 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 51 51 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 52 52 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 51 51 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 51 51 E 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 51 51 SE 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 52 52 N 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 52 52 NE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 52 52 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 54 54 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 57 57 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 58 59 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 59 61 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 61 63 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 62 64 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 63 64 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 62 62 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 62 62 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 59 59 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 56 56 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 55 55 W 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 54 54 NE 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 53 53 N 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 53 53 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 52 52 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 51 51 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 52 52 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 51 51 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 51 51 SE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 52 52 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 52 52 NE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 54 54 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 53 53 E 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 58 58 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 64 65 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 68 70 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 70 72 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 73 76 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 77 79 S 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 78 80 SE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 77 78 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 76 76 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 70 70 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 65 65 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 62 62 NW 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 60 60 NW 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 59 59 NW 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 58 58 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 56 56 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 55 55 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 55 55 E 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 54 54 E 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 54 54 E 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 55 55 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 55 55 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 56 56 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 55 55 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 59 59 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 64 64 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 66 67 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 68 69 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 70 71 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 73 74 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 74 75 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 74 74 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 72 72 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 67 67 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 62 62 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 60 60 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 58 58 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 56 56 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 55 55 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 54 54 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 53 53 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 53 53 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 52 52 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 52 52 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 52 52 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 53 53 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 53 53 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 53 53 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 55 55 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 58 58 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 59 61 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 60 63 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 62 65 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 63 65 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 64 66 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 64 65 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 63 63 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 60 60 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 56 56 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 55 55 NE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 54 54 NE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 53 53 NE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 52 52 NE 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 51 51 NE 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 50 50 NE 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 51 51 E 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 50 50 E 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 50 50 E 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 51 51 E 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 51 51 E 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 52 52 E 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 51 51 E 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 55 55 E 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 59 60 E 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 61 63 E 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 62 65 E 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 65 68 E 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 67 69 E 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 68 70 E 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 68 69 E 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 66 66 E 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 62 62 E 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 57 57 E 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 55 55 E 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 53 53 E 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 52 52 E 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 51 51 E 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 50 50 E 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 49 49 E 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 49 49 E 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 48 48 E 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 48 48 E 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst