Detailed Predictions for: Blossom Valley
Launch Altitude (f): 1500
LZ Altitude (f): 700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue -999 -999 - 833 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue -999 -999 - 833 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 65 65 SE 1 1056 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 67 67 SE 1 1208 1500 0 Blue 1
9 AM Tue 69 71 SW 1 1355 1500 0 Blue 5
10 AM Tue 73 76 W 2 1663 1500 0 Blue 10
11 AM Tue 76 81 W 7 2292 2087 587 Blue 15
12 Noon Tue 79 85 W 8 3223 2404 904 Blue 19
1 PM Tue 81 88 W 9 4008 3205 1705 Blue 22
2 PM Tue 81 87 W 12 3747 2943 1443 Blue 21
3 PM Tue 81 86 W 12 3486 2679 1179 Blue 20
4 PM Tue 80 83 W 12 2694 2233 733 Blue 17
5 PM Tue 78 79 W 10 2179 1657 157 Blue 13
6 PM Tue 76 76 W 9 1663 1500 0 Blue 10
7 PM Tue 71 71 W 8 1355 1500 0 Blue 5
8 PM Tue 67 67 W 5 1208 1500 0 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 64 64 W 3 927 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 63 63 W 3 833 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 61 61 W 1 833 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 61 61 SW 1 833 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 61 61 W 0 833 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 60 60 E 1 833 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 60 60 E 1 833 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 60 60 SE 1 833 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 60 60 SE 1 833 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 59 59 SE 1 833 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 59 59 E 1 833 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 62 62 E 0 833 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 65 66 W 2 1161 1500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 69 72 W 3 1392 1500 0 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 74 79 W 7 2179 1657 157 Blue 13
12 Noon Wed 78 84 W 8 2959 2290 790 Blue 18
1 PM Wed 81 87 W 9 3747 2943 1443 Blue 21
2 PM Wed 81 87 W 12 3747 2943 1443 Blue 21
3 PM Wed 81 85 W 12 3223 2404 904 Blue 19
4 PM Wed 80 83 W 12 2694 2233 733 Blue 17
5 PM Wed 79 80 W 9 2236 1903 403 Blue 14
6 PM Wed 76 76 W 9 1663 1500 0 Blue 10
7 PM Wed 72 72 W 8 1392 1500 0 Blue 6
8 PM Wed 68 68 W 3 1256 1500 0 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 66 66 W 2 1161 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 64 64 W 1 927 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 63 63 SE 1 833 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 62 62 SE 1 833 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 63 63 SE 1 833 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 62 62 SE 1 833 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 62 62 E 1 833 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 62 62 E 0 833 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 62 62 NE 0 833 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 61 61 NW 0 833 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 61 61 NW 0 833 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 64 64 W 3 927 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 66 67 W 3 1208 1500 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 70 73 W 5 1438 1500 0 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 75 80 W 7 2236 1903 403 Blue 14
12 Noon Thu 79 85 W 8 3223 2404 904 Blue 19
1 PM Thu 81 87 W 10 3747 2943 1443 Blue 21
2 PM Thu 81 87 W 12 3747 2943 1443 Blue 21
3 PM Thu 81 85 W 12 3223 2404 904 Blue 19
4 PM Thu 81 84 W 12 2959 2290 790 Blue 18
5 PM Thu 79 80 W 10 2236 1903 403 Blue 14
6 PM Thu 77 77 W 9 1910 1500 0 Blue 11
7 PM Thu 73 73 W 7 1438 1500 0 Blue 7
8 PM Thu 70 70 W 5 1323 1500 0 Blue 4
9 PM Thu 67 67 W 3 1208 1500 0 Blue 1
10 PM Thu 66 66 W 3 1161 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 65 65 W 1 1056 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 64 64 W 1 927 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 64 64 W 1 927 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 64 64 W 1 927 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 64 64 W 2 927 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 64 64 SW 1 927 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 63 63 SW 1 833 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 63 63 SW 1 833 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 63 63 SW 1 833 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 65 65 W 2 1056 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 68 69 W 2 1290 1500 0 Blue 3
10 AM Fri 72 75 W 2 1529 1500 0 Blue 9
11 AM Fri 76 81 W 8 2292 2087 587 Blue 15
12 Noon Fri 79 85 W 8 3223 2404 904 Blue 19
1 PM Fri 81 87 W 8 3747 2943 1443 Blue 21
2 PM Fri 82 88 W 13 4008 3205 1705 Blue 22
3 PM Fri 81 85 W 13 3223 2404 904 Blue 19
4 PM Fri 81 84 W 13 2959 2290 790 Blue 18
5 PM Fri 79 80 W 9 2236 1903 403 Blue 14
6 PM Fri 77 77 W 9 1910 1500 0 Blue 11
7 PM Fri 73 73 W 9 1438 1500 0 Blue 7
8 PM Fri 70 70 W 6 1323 1500 0 Blue 4
9 PM Fri 68 68 W 6 1256 1500 0 Blue 2
10 PM Fri 67 67 W 6 1208 1500 0 Blue 1
11 PM Fri 66 66 SW 3 1161 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 65 65 SW 3 1056 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 65 65 SW 3 1056 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 65 65 NW 1 1056 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 65 65 NW 1 1056 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 64 64 NW 1 927 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 64 64 N 1 927 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 64 64 N 1 927 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 64 64 N 1 927 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 66 66 SW 2 1161 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 69 70 SW 2 1323 1500 0 Blue 4
10 AM Sat 73 76 SW 2 1663 1500 0 Blue 10
11 AM Sat 77 82 W 7 2410 2177 677 Blue 16
12 Noon Sat 81 87 W 7 3747 2943 1443 Blue 21
1 PM Sat 83 89 W 7 4267 3465 1965 Blue 23
2 PM Sat 84 90 W 13 4524 3725 2225 Blue 24
3 PM Sat 83 87 W 13 3747 2943 1443 Blue 21
4 PM Sat 82 85 W 13 3223 2404 904 Blue 19
5 PM Sat 81 82 W 9 2410 2177 677 Blue 16
6 PM Sat 78 78 W 9 2091 1528 28 Blue 12
7 PM Sat 74 74 W 9 1483 1500 0 Blue 8
8 PM Sat 70 70 NW 5 1323 1500 0 Blue 4
9 PM Sat 68 68 NW 5 1256 1500 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sat 66 66 NW 5 1161 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 65 65 W 1 1056 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 64 64 W 1 927 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 65 65 W 1 1056 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 64 64 SW 0 927 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 64 64 SW 0 927 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 64 64 SW 0 927 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 64 64 NW 1 927 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 63 63 NW 1 833 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 63 63 NW 1 833 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 66 66 NW 2 1161 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 69 71 NW 2 1355 1500 0 Blue 5
10 AM Sun 73 76 NW 2 1663 1500 0 Blue 10
11 AM Sun 78 83 W 7 2694 2233 733 Blue 17
12 Noon Sun 82 88 W 7 4008 3205 1705 Blue 22
1 PM Sun 84 90 W 7 4524 3725 2225 Blue 24
2 PM Sun 85 91 W 13 4781 3983 2483 Blue 25
3 PM Sun 84 88 W 13 4008 3205 1705 Blue 22
4 PM Sun 83 86 W 13 3486 2679 1179 Blue 20
5 PM Sun 82 83 W 10 2694 2233 733 Blue 17
6 PM Sun 79 79 W 10 2179 1657 157 Blue 13
7 PM Sun 74 74 W 10 1483 1500 0 Blue 8
8 PM Sun 71 71 NW 3 1355 1500 0 Blue 5
9 PM Sun 68 68 NW 3 1256 1500 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 66 66 NW 3 1161 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 65 65 SW 1 1056 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 65 65 SW 1 1056 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 65 65 SW 1 1056 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 64 64 SW 1 927 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 64 64 SW 1 927 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 64 64 SW 1 927 1500 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst