Detailed Predictions for: Blossom Valley
Launch Altitude (f): 1500
LZ Altitude (f): 700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

17 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 58 58 E 3 883 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 58 58 E 5 883 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 58 58 E 6 883 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 58 58 E 8 883 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 61 61 E 7 883 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 66 66 E 2 1097 1500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 69 70 W 3 1874 1500 0 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 71 73 W 5 2352 1865 365 Blue 6
12 Noon Wed 74 76 W 5 2943 2343 843 Blue 9
1 PM Wed 76 78 W 7 3505 2754 1254 Blue 11
2 PM Wed 76 77 W 7 3214 2551 1051 Blue 10
3 PM Wed 76 76 W 7 2943 2343 843 Blue 9
4 PM Wed 73 73 W 6 2352 1865 365 Blue 6
5 PM Wed 69 69 W 5 1623 1500 0 Blue 2
6 PM Wed 66 66 W 1 1097 1500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 63 63 E 3 883 1500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 63 63 E 3 883 1500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 63 63 E 2 883 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 62 62 E 1 883 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 61 61 E 1 883 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 60 60 E 1 883 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 60 60 E 3 883 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 60 60 E 3 883 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 60 60 E 5 883 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 60 60 E 5 883 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 59 59 E 6 883 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 59 59 E 6 883 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 59 59 E 7 883 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 61 61 E 6 883 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 65 66 E 2 1097 1500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 69 70 W 5 1874 1500 0 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 70 72 W 6 2163 1620 120 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 72 74 W 6 2561 2049 549 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 74 76 W 8 2943 2343 843 Blue 9
2 PM Thu 74 75 W 7 2765 2159 659 Blue 8
3 PM Thu 74 74 W 7 2561 2049 549 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 70 70 W 6 1874 1500 0 Blue 3
5 PM Thu 66 66 W 5 1097 1500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 62 62 W 3 883 1500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 60 60 S 1 883 1500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 60 60 SW 1 883 1500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 60 60 W 1 883 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 58 58 W 2 883 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 58 58 SW 1 883 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 56 56 SW 1 883 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 56 56 SW 1 883 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 56 56 SW 1 883 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 56 56 S 1 883 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 56 56 E 1 883 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 55 55 SE 3 883 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 55 55 S 2 883 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 55 55 SW 3 883 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 56 56 S 3 883 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 57 57 W 9 883 1500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 58 58 W 10 883 1500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 58 58 W 10 883 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 59 59 W 10 883 1500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 60 60 W 15 883 1500 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 59 59 W 15 883 1500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 59 59 W 15 883 1500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 58 58 W 12 883 1500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 56 56 W 12 883 1500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 54 54 W 12 883 1500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 52 52 W 12 883 1500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 52 52 W 10 883 1500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 52 52 NW 10 883 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 52 52 NW 10 883 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 51 51 NW 10 883 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 51 51 NW 10 883 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 50 50 NW 10 883 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 50 50 N 3 883 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 50 50 N 3 883 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 50 50 N 6 883 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 50 50 N 6 883 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 50 50 N 6 883 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 50 50 E 5 883 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 51 51 E 5 883 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 54 54 E 5 883 1500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 56 57 W 5 883 1500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 57 59 W 5 883 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 58 60 W 5 883 1500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 60 62 W 7 883 1500 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 60 61 W 7 883 1500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 59 59 W 7 883 1500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 57 57 W 10 883 1500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 54 54 W 10 883 1500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 51 51 W 10 883 1500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 49 49 N 5 883 1500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 49 49 N 5 883 1500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 49 49 N 5 883 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 48 48 E 6 883 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 48 48 E 6 883 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 47 47 E 6 883 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 47 47 E 6 883 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 47 47 E 6 883 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 47 47 E 6 883 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 46 46 E 7 883 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 46 46 E 7 883 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 46 46 E 7 883 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 46 46 E 6 883 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 48 48 E 6 883 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 53 54 E 6 883 1500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 57 58 W 2 883 1500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 59 61 W 2 883 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 61 63 W 2 883 1500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 63 64 W 7 883 1500 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 64 65 W 7 888 1500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 63 63 W 7 883 1500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 61 61 W 7 883 1500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 57 57 W 7 883 1500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 55 55 W 7 883 1500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 53 53 NE 5 883 1500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 53 53 NE 5 883 1500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 52 52 NE 5 883 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 52 52 NE 3 883 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 51 51 NE 3 883 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 50 50 NE 3 883 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 50 50 E 5 883 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 50 50 E 5 883 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 50 50 E 5 883 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 49 49 E 5 883 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 49 49 E 5 883 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 49 49 E 5 883 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 49 49 NE 6 883 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 51 51 NE 6 883 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 56 56 NE 6 883 1500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 60 61 NW 3 883 1500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 62 64 NW 3 883 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 64 66 NW 3 1097 1500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 66 68 W 8 1474 1500 0 Blue 1
2 PM Mon 67 68 W 8 1474 1500 0 Blue 1
3 PM Mon 66 66 W 8 1097 1500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 64 64 W 8 883 1500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 60 60 W 8 883 1500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 58 58 W 8 883 1500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 56 56 N 3 883 1500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 56 56 N 3 883 1500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 56 56 N 3 883 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 54 54 E 2 883 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 54 54 E 2 883 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 53 53 E 2 883 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 53 53 E 3 883 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 53 53 E 3 883 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 53 53 E 3 883 1500 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst