Detailed Predictions for: Blossom Valley
Launch Altitude (f): 1500
LZ Altitude (f): 700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

17 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 59 59 SE 2 889 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 59 59 SE 2 889 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 60 60 E 3 889 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 60 60 E 3 889 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 63 63 SE 2 889 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 66 66 S 1 889 1500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 68 69 W 6 1195 1500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 70 71 W 7 1475 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 71 72 W 7 1742 1500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 72 73 W 10 2169 1500 0 Blue 1
2 PM Fri 72 72 W 10 1742 1500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 72 72 W 9 1742 1500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 68 68 W 8 1055 1500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 65 65 NW 7 889 1500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 62 62 NW 6 889 1500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 60 60 N 3 889 1500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 60 60 NE 5 889 1500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 59 59 E 5 889 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 58 58 E 1 889 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 57 57 NE 2 889 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 56 56 NE 2 889 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 56 56 E 3 889 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 55 55 E 2 889 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 55 55 E 1 889 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 54 54 E 3 889 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 55 55 E 3 889 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 55 55 E 5 889 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 56 56 E 3 889 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 60 60 E 2 889 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 64 65 SE 1 889 1500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 67 69 W 5 1195 1500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 69 72 W 6 1742 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 72 75 W 6 3125 1731 231 Blue 3
1 PM Sat 73 75 W 8 3125 1731 231 Blue 3
2 PM Sat 73 74 W 8 2591 1500 0 Blue 2
3 PM Sat 73 73 W 8 2169 1500 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sat 69 69 W 7 1195 1500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 65 65 NW 5 889 1500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 62 62 N 2 889 1500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 59 59 SE 2 889 1500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 58 58 SE 3 889 1500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 58 58 SE 3 889 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 57 57 SE 5 889 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 56 56 SE 3 889 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 55 55 SE 3 889 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 54 54 SE 2 889 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 53 53 E 3 889 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 53 53 E 3 889 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 52 52 NE 2 889 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 53 53 E 1 889 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 53 53 E 2 889 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 54 54 NE 3 889 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 58 58 NE 2 889 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 63 64 W 2 889 1500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 66 68 W 6 1055 1500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 69 72 W 6 1742 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 71 74 W 7 2591 1500 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sun 73 75 W 8 3125 1731 231 Blue 3
2 PM Sun 73 74 W 9 2591 1500 0 Blue 2
3 PM Sun 73 73 W 9 2169 1500 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sun 69 69 W 8 1195 1500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 65 65 NW 5 889 1500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 62 62 N 5 889 1500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 59 59 NE 5 889 1500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 58 58 NE 2 889 1500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 58 58 E 2 889 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 57 57 E 1 889 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 56 56 E 1 889 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 55 55 E 2 889 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 54 54 E 2 889 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 53 53 E 2 889 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 53 53 E 1 889 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 52 52 E 1 889 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 53 53 E 1 889 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 53 53 E 1 889 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 54 54 SW 0 889 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 58 58 SW 0 889 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 62 63 SW 0 889 1500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 65 67 W 3 915 1500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 67 69 W 3 1195 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 70 72 W 3 1742 1500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 72 74 W 8 2591 1500 0 Blue 2
2 PM Mon 72 73 W 8 2169 1500 0 Blue 1
3 PM Mon 71 71 W 8 1475 1500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 68 68 W 6 1055 1500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 66 66 W 6 889 1500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 64 64 W 6 889 1500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 62 62 NE 3 889 1500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 61 61 NE 3 889 1500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 61 61 NE 3 889 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 60 60 N 0 889 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 59 59 N 0 889 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 59 59 N 0 889 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 59 59 E 2 889 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 58 58 E 2 889 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 58 58 E 2 889 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 57 57 E 0 889 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 58 58 E 0 889 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 58 58 E 0 889 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 59 59 E 5 889 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 63 63 E 5 889 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 68 69 E 5 1195 1500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 71 73 W 5 2169 1500 0 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 74 76 W 5 3654 2154 654 Blue 4
12 Noon Tue 76 78 W 5 4696 3089 1589 Blue 6
1 PM Tue 79 81 W 7 6234 4612 3112 Blue 9
2 PM Tue 79 80 W 7 5727 4118 2618 Blue 8
3 PM Tue 78 78 W 7 4696 3089 1589 Blue 6
4 PM Tue 74 74 NW 7 2591 1500 0 Blue 2
5 PM Tue 71 71 NW 7 1475 1500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 68 68 NW 7 1055 1500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 66 66 E 2 889 1500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 65 65 E 2 889 1500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 64 64 E 2 889 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 63 63 E 2 889 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 62 62 E 2 889 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 61 61 E 2 889 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 61 61 E 5 889 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 60 60 E 5 889 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 60 60 E 5 889 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 59 59 E 8 889 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 60 60 E 8 889 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 61 61 E 8 889 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 62 62 E 8 889 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 67 67 E 8 915 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 73 74 E 8 2591 1500 0 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 76 78 W 6 4696 3089 1589 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 80 83 W 6 6878 5669 4169 Blue 11
12 Noon Wed 83 86 W 6 8005 6807 5307 Blue 14
1 PM Wed 86 88 W 7 8522 7554 6054 Blue 16
2 PM Wed 86 87 W 7 8387 7182 5682 Blue 15
3 PM Wed 84 84 W 7 7259 6115 4615 Blue 12
4 PM Wed 80 80 SW 2 5727 4118 2618 Blue 8
5 PM Wed 75 75 SW 2 3125 1731 231 Blue 3
6 PM Wed 71 71 SW 2 1475 1500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 69 69 E 5 1195 1500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 68 68 E 5 1055 1500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 66 66 E 5 889 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 66 66 E 5 889 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 64 64 E 5 889 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 63 63 E 5 889 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 63 63 E 3 889 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 61 61 E 3 889 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 61 61 E 3 889 1500 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst