Detailed Predictions for: Crestline
Launch Altitude (f): 5200
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

25 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 46 44 E 2 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 47 45 E 2 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 48 46 SE 2 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 49 48 S 3 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 49 50 S 5 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 50 53 S 6 4066 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 51 54 S 9 4438 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 52 56 S 10 4829 5200 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sat 54 58 S 12 5563 5200 0 Blue 4
2 PM Sat 56 59 SW 14 5839 5200 0 Blue 5
3 PM Sat 55 57 SW 15 5177 5200 0 Blue 3
4 PM Sat 56 57 SW 16 5177 5200 0 Blue 3
5 PM Sat 54 53 SW 16 4066 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 52 50 SW 16 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 50 48 SW 14 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 48 46 S 12 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 46 44 S 10 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 45 43 S 10 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 44 42 S 10 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 44 42 S 10 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 43 41 S 10 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 43 41 S 12 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 42 40 S 13 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 42 40 S 13 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 41 39 S 14 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 41 39 S 15 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 41 39 S 16 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 41 39 S 17 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 42 40 S 17 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 42 41 S 16 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 43 41 S 16 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 42 40 S 17 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 43 41 S 18 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 43 41 S 18 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 42 40 S 20 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 42 40 S 20 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 41 39 S 20 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 41 39 S 20 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 41 39 SW 18 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 40 38 SW 16 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 40 38 SW 15 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 39 37 SW 13 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 39 37 SW 10 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 38 36 S 10 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 38 36 S 10 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 37 35 S 10 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 37 35 S 9 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 37 35 S 8 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 36 34 S 8 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 36 34 S 7 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 36 34 S 7 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 36 35 S 8 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 37 37 S 9 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 39 40 S 9 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 41 43 S 10 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 43 45 S 12 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 45 47 S 12 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 47 49 S 12 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 48 49 S 13 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 47 47 SW 14 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 48 47 SW 14 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 47 45 SW 14 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 45 43 S 13 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 44 42 S 12 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 43 41 S 9 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 43 41 S 7 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 43 41 S 5 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 43 41 S 3 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 43 41 S 3 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 43 41 S 3 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 42 40 SE 3 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 42 40 E 3 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 42 40 NE 3 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 44 42 NE 3 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 47 45 NE 3 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 49 48 N 7 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 52 53 N 7 4066 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 54 57 N 7 5177 5200 0 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 55 59 NW 3 5839 5200 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Tue 56 61 NW 3 6791 5543 343 White 7
1 PM Tue 58 63 NW 3 7228 7228 2028 White 9
2 PM Tue 58 63 SW 9 7228 7228 2028 White 9
3 PM Tue 59 62 SW 9 7010 5828 628 White 8
4 PM Tue 59 60 SW 9 6571 5200 0 White 6
5 PM Tue 58 58 SW 13 5563 5200 0 Blue 4
6 PM Tue 55 53 SW 13 4066 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 52 50 SW 13 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 50 48 S 5 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 50 48 S 5 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 50 48 S 5 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 51 49 N 6 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 51 49 N 6 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 51 49 N 6 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 51 49 N 8 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 51 49 N 8 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 51 49 N 8 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 51 49 N 13 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 53 51 N 13 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 55 53 N 13 4066 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 57 56 N 12 4829 5200 0 Blue 2
9 AM Wed 58 59 N 12 5839 5200 0 Blue 5
10 AM Wed 60 63 N 12 7228 7228 2028 White 9
11 AM Wed 61 64 SW 5 7446 7446 2246 White 10
12 Noon Wed 62 66 SW 5 7879 7879 2679 White 12
1 PM Wed 63 67 SW 5 8095 8095 2895 White 13
2 PM Wed 64 68 SW 12 8309 8309 3109 White 14
3 PM Wed 65 67 SW 12 8095 8095 2895 White 13
4 PM Wed 65 66 SW 12 7879 7879 2679 White 12
5 PM Wed 64 63 SW 13 7228 7228 2028 White 9
6 PM Wed 62 60 SW 13 6571 5200 0 White 6
7 PM Wed 58 56 SW 13 4829 5200 0 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 56 54 S 7 4438 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 54 52 S 7 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 54 52 S 7 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 54 52 S 3 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 53 51 S 3 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 52 50 S 3 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 52 50 SE 2 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 51 49 SE 2 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 51 49 SE 2 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 52 50 N 5 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 53 51 N 5 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 55 53 N 5 4066 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 57 56 N 3 4829 5200 0 Blue 2
9 AM Thu 58 59 N 3 5839 5200 0 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 59 61 N 3 6791 5543 343 White 7
11 AM Thu 60 63 S 7 7228 7228 2028 White 9
12 Noon Thu 62 66 S 7 7879 7879 2679 White 12
1 PM Thu 63 67 S 7 8095 8095 2895 White 13
2 PM Thu 64 67 SW 12 8095 8095 2895 White 13
3 PM Thu 65 67 SW 12 8095 8095 2895 White 13
4 PM Thu 65 66 SW 12 7879 7879 2679 White 12
5 PM Thu 63 62 SW 14 7010 5828 628 White 8
6 PM Thu 60 58 SW 14 5563 5200 0 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 57 55 SW 14 4728 5200 0 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 54 52 S 9 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 52 50 S 9 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 52 50 S 9 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 52 50 S 3 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 52 50 S 3 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 52 50 S 3 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 51 49 N 3 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 51 49 N 3 3907 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 51 49 N 3 3907 5200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst