Detailed Predictions for: Crestline
Launch Altitude (f): 5200
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

27 MAY 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 46 44 N 8 3439 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 48 46 N 10 4109 5200 0 White 0
7 AM Sun 49 47 N 10 4333 5200 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 52 51 N 10 4836 5200 0 Blue 5
9 AM Sun 54 55 N 9 5308 5200 0 Blue 9
10 AM Sun 56 59 N 7 5869 5426 226 Blue 13
11 AM Sun 58 62 NW 2 6189 5860 660 Blue 16
12 Noon Sun 59 64 W 2 6335 6111 911 Blue 18
1 PM Sun 60 66 SW 3 6481 6257 1057 Blue 20
2 PM Sun 60 65 SW 8 6408 6184 984 Blue 19
3 PM Sun 61 64 SW 9 6335 6111 911 Blue 18
4 PM Sun 60 62 SW 9 6189 5860 660 Blue 16
5 PM Sun 60 60 SW 10 6017 5564 364 Blue 14
6 PM Sun 59 57 SW 10 5572 5200 0 Blue 11
7 PM Sun 57 55 SW 9 5308 5200 0 Blue 9
8 PM Sun 56 54 S 5 5183 5200 0 Blue 8
9 PM Sun 55 53 S 3 5059 5200 0 Blue 7
10 PM Sun 55 53 S 3 5059 5200 0 Blue 7
11 PM Sun 55 53 SE 1 5059 5200 0 Blue 7
12 Midnight Mon 56 54 E 1 5183 5200 0 Blue 8
1 AM Mon 56 54 NE 2 5183 5200 0 Blue 8
2 AM Mon 57 55 N 7 5308 5200 0 Blue 9
3 AM Mon 57 55 N 8 5308 5200 0 Blue 9
4 AM Mon 57 55 N 8 5308 5200 0 Blue 9
5 AM Mon 57 55 N 12 5308 5200 0 Blue 9
6 AM Mon 59 57 N 14 5572 5200 0 Blue 11
7 AM Mon 60 58 N 14 5721 5302 102 Blue 12
8 AM Mon 62 61 N 14 6117 5712 512 Blue 15
9 AM Mon 65 66 N 13 6481 6257 1057 Blue 20
10 AM Mon 67 70 N 9 6848 6548 1348 Blue 24
11 AM Mon 69 74 N 5 7997 7108 1908 Blue 28
12 Noon Mon 70 76 NW 2 8551 7677 2477 Blue 30
1 PM Mon 69 75 SW 2 8279 7394 2194 Blue 29
2 PM Mon 70 76 SW 9 8551 7677 2477 Blue 30
3 PM Mon 70 74 SW 9 7997 7108 1908 Blue 28
4 PM Mon 70 72 SW 10 7426 6694 1494 Blue 26
5 PM Mon 69 69 SW 10 6700 6475 1275 Blue 23
6 PM Mon 67 66 SW 9 6481 6257 1057 Blue 20
7 PM Mon 65 63 S 8 6262 6007 807 Blue 17
8 PM Mon 64 62 S 2 6189 5860 660 Blue 16
9 PM Mon 62 60 S 2 6017 5564 364 Blue 14
10 PM Mon 62 60 S 2 6017 5564 364 Blue 14
11 PM Mon 62 60 SE 1 6017 5564 364 Blue 14
12 Midnight Tue 62 60 E 1 6017 5564 364 Blue 14
1 AM Tue 62 60 NE 1 6017 5564 364 Blue 14
2 AM Tue 62 60 N 5 6017 5564 364 Blue 14
3 AM Tue 62 60 N 7 6017 5564 364 Blue 14
4 AM Tue 63 61 N 9 6117 5712 512 Blue 15
5 AM Tue 64 62 N 12 6189 5860 660 Blue 16
6 AM Tue 65 63 N 12 6262 6007 807 Blue 17
7 AM Tue 67 65 N 10 6408 6184 984 Blue 19
8 AM Tue 68 67 N 14 6554 6330 1130 Blue 21
9 AM Tue 70 71 N 13 7138 6621 1421 Blue 25
10 AM Tue 71 74 N 8 7997 7108 1908 Blue 28
11 AM Tue 72 77 W 2 8760 7959 2759 Blue 31
12 Noon Tue 73 79 SW 3 9227 8518 3318 Blue 33
1 PM Tue 72 78 SW 3 8968 8240 3040 Blue 32
2 PM Tue 73 78 SW 10 8968 8240 3040 Blue 32
3 PM Tue 72 76 SW 12 8551 7677 2477 Blue 30
4 PM Tue 71 73 SW 13 7712 6820 1620 Blue 27
5 PM Tue 70 70 S 13 6848 6548 1348 Blue 24
6 PM Tue 68 66 S 10 6481 6257 1057 Blue 20
7 PM Tue 66 64 S 7 6335 6111 911 Blue 18
8 PM Tue 64 62 S 5 6189 5860 660 Blue 16
9 PM Tue 63 61 S 3 6117 5712 512 Blue 15
10 PM Tue 63 61 S 3 6117 5712 512 Blue 15
11 PM Tue 62 60 S 3 6017 5564 364 Blue 14
12 Midnight Wed 61 59 S 3 5869 5426 226 Blue 13
1 AM Wed 60 58 S 2 5721 5302 102 Blue 12
2 AM Wed 59 57 S 2 5572 5200 0 Blue 11
3 AM Wed 58 56 S 2 5432 5200 0 Blue 10
4 AM Wed 58 56 S 1 5432 5200 0 Blue 10
5 AM Wed 58 56 S 1 5432 5200 0 Blue 10
6 AM Wed 58 56 S 1 5432 5200 0 Blue 10
7 AM Wed 58 56 S 1 5432 5200 0 Blue 10
8 AM Wed 59 58 S 6 5721 5302 102 Blue 12
9 AM Wed 59 60 S 6 6017 5564 364 Blue 14
10 AM Wed 59 62 S 6 6189 5860 660 Blue 16
11 AM Wed 60 65 S 9 6408 6184 984 Blue 19
12 Noon Wed 61 67 S 9 6554 6330 1130 Blue 21
1 PM Wed 62 68 S 9 6627 6402 1202 Blue 22
2 PM Wed 63 69 S 13 6700 6475 1275 Blue 23
3 PM Wed 63 67 S 13 6554 6330 1130 Blue 21
4 PM Wed 63 65 S 13 6408 6184 984 Blue 19
5 PM Wed 62 62 SW 14 6189 5860 660 Blue 16
6 PM Wed 60 59 SW 14 5869 5426 226 Blue 13
7 PM Wed 58 56 SW 14 5432 5200 0 Blue 10
8 PM Wed 56 54 S 10 5183 5200 0 Blue 8
9 PM Wed 55 53 S 10 5059 5200 0 Blue 7
10 PM Wed 54 52 S 10 4934 5200 0 Blue 6
11 PM Wed 53 51 S 6 4836 5200 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Thu 52 50 S 6 4736 5200 0 Blue 4
1 AM Thu 51 49 S 6 4637 5200 0 Blue 3
2 AM Thu 51 49 S 5 4637 5200 0 Blue 3
3 AM Thu 50 48 S 5 4537 5200 0 Blue 2
4 AM Thu 50 48 S 5 4537 5200 0 Blue 2
5 AM Thu 49 47 S 7 4333 5200 0 White 0
6 AM Thu 49 47 S 7 4333 5200 0 White 0
7 AM Thu 49 47 S 7 4333 5200 0 White 0
8 AM Thu 49 47 S 8 4333 5200 0 White 0
9 AM Thu 50 48 S 8 4537 5200 0 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 51 50 S 8 4736 5200 0 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 52 56 S 13 5432 5200 0 Blue 10
12 Noon Thu 53 58 S 13 5721 5302 102 Blue 12
1 PM Thu 54 59 S 13 5869 5426 226 Blue 13
2 PM Thu 55 59 SW 15 5869 5426 226 Blue 13
3 PM Thu 55 58 SW 15 5721 5302 102 Blue 12
4 PM Thu 55 56 SW 15 5432 5200 0 Blue 10
5 PM Thu 54 54 SW 17 5183 5200 0 Blue 8
6 PM Thu 52 50 SW 17 4736 5200 0 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 50 48 SW 17 4537 5200 0 Blue 2
8 PM Thu 48 46 S 13 4109 5200 0 White 0
9 PM Thu 46 44 S 13 3439 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 45 43 S 13 3026 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 44 42 S 8 2606 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 44 42 S 8 2606 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 44 42 S 8 2606 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 43 41 S 7 2546 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 43 41 S 7 2546 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 43 41 S 7 2546 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 43 41 S 6 2546 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 44 42 S 6 2606 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 45 43 S 6 3026 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 46 45 S 6 3846 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 48 48 S 6 4537 5200 0 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 50 52 S 6 4934 5200 0 Blue 6
11 AM Fri 51 56 S 7 5432 5200 0 Blue 10
12 Noon Fri 53 59 S 7 5869 5426 226 Blue 13
1 PM Fri 55 61 S 7 6117 5712 512 Blue 15
2 PM Fri 56 61 S 7 6117 5712 512 Blue 15
3 PM Fri 57 61 S 7 6117 5712 512 Blue 15
4 PM Fri 57 59 S 7 5869 5426 226 Blue 13
5 PM Fri 56 56 SW 8 5432 5200 0 Blue 10
6 PM Fri 54 53 SW 8 5059 5200 0 Blue 7
7 PM Fri 52 50 SW 8 4736 5200 0 Blue 4
8 PM Fri 51 49 W 6 4637 5200 0 Blue 3
9 PM Fri 51 49 W 6 4637 5200 0 Blue 3
10 PM Fri 51 49 W 6 4637 5200 0 Blue 3
11 PM Fri 52 50 N 5 4736 5200 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sat 52 50 N 5 4736 5200 0 Blue 4
1 AM Sat 53 51 N 5 4836 5200 0 Blue 5
2 AM Sat 54 52 N 7 4934 5200 0 Blue 6
3 AM Sat 54 52 N 7 4934 5200 0 Blue 6
4 AM Sat 54 52 N 7 4934 5200 0 Blue 6

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst