Detailed Predictions for: Crestline
Launch Altitude (f): 5200
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

22 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 66 64 E 1 3635 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 67 65 E 1 3635 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 69 67 E 1 3635 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 70 69 S 0 3635 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 72 72 W 1 3667 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 73 75 SW 1 4293 5200 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 74 78 S 6 5352 5200 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Sun 76 81 S 6 5803 5347 147 Blue 8
1 PM Sun 77 83 S 6 6868 5555 355 Blue 10
2 PM Sun 78 83 S 9 6868 5555 355 Blue 10
3 PM Sun 78 82 S 9 6161 5451 251 Blue 9
4 PM Sun 79 81 SW 9 5803 5347 147 Blue 8
5 PM Sun 78 78 SW 10 5352 5200 0 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 76 75 SW 10 4293 5200 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 73 71 S 9 3635 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 71 69 S 5 3635 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 71 69 S 3 3635 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 72 70 S 3 3635 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 72 70 NE 2 3635 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 73 71 N 5 3635 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 74 72 N 5 3667 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 74 72 N 10 3667 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 74 72 N 10 3667 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 74 72 N 12 3667 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 75 73 N 14 3981 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 76 74 N 14 4180 5200 0 Blue 1
7 AM Mon 78 76 N 14 4407 5200 0 Blue 3
8 AM Mon 80 79 N 15 5456 5200 0 Blue 6
9 AM Mon 82 82 N 15 6161 5451 251 Blue 9
10 AM Mon 85 87 N 13 8814 7127 1927 Blue 14
11 AM Mon 88 92 N 3 10292 9322 4122 Blue 19
12 Noon Mon 89 94 NW 1 11130 9968 4768 Blue 21
1 PM Mon 89 94 W 2 11130 9968 4768 Blue 21
2 PM Mon 90 95 S 7 12110 10237 5037 White 22
3 PM Mon 90 93 S 7 10561 9558 4358 Blue 20
4 PM Mon 89 91 S 8 10020 9133 3933 Blue 18
5 PM Mon 88 88 SW 12 9177 7647 2447 Blue 15
6 PM Mon 85 84 SW 10 7156 5785 585 Blue 11
7 PM Mon 80 78 SW 9 5352 5200 0 Blue 5
8 PM Mon 77 75 S 3 4293 5200 0 Blue 2
9 PM Mon 76 74 S 2 4180 5200 0 Blue 1
10 PM Mon 76 74 NE 2 4180 5200 0 Blue 1
11 PM Mon 77 75 N 8 4293 5200 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Tue 78 76 N 9 4407 5200 0 Blue 3
1 AM Tue 78 76 N 9 4407 5200 0 Blue 3
2 AM Tue 78 76 N 12 4407 5200 0 Blue 3
3 AM Tue 77 75 N 13 4293 5200 0 Blue 2
4 AM Tue 77 75 N 13 4293 5200 0 Blue 2
5 AM Tue 77 75 N 15 4293 5200 0 Blue 2
6 AM Tue 78 76 N 15 4407 5200 0 Blue 3
7 AM Tue 78 76 N 15 4407 5200 0 Blue 3
8 AM Tue 80 79 N 15 5456 5200 0 Blue 6
9 AM Tue 82 82 N 13 6161 5451 251 Blue 9
10 AM Tue 85 87 N 7 8814 7127 1927 Blue 14
11 AM Tue 88 92 SW 2 10292 9322 4122 Blue 19
12 Noon Tue 90 95 SW 5 12110 10237 5037 White 22
1 PM Tue 91 97 SW 6 12528 10884 5684 White 24
2 PM Tue 92 97 SW 12 12528 10884 5684 White 24
3 PM Tue 93 97 SW 13 12528 10884 5684 White 24
4 PM Tue 92 94 SW 13 11130 9968 4768 Blue 21
5 PM Tue 92 92 SW 13 10292 9322 4122 Blue 19
6 PM Tue 88 87 S 10 8814 7127 1927 Blue 14
7 PM Tue 84 82 S 9 6161 5451 251 Blue 9
8 PM Tue 80 78 S 8 5352 5200 0 Blue 5
9 PM Tue 78 76 SW 7 4407 5200 0 Blue 3
10 PM Tue 77 75 NW 7 4293 5200 0 Blue 2
11 PM Tue 77 75 N 7 4293 5200 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Wed 77 75 N 10 4293 5200 0 Blue 2
1 AM Wed 77 75 N 13 4293 5200 0 Blue 2
2 AM Wed 77 75 N 15 4293 5200 0 Blue 2
3 AM Wed 77 75 N 15 4293 5200 0 Blue 2
4 AM Wed 77 75 N 14 4293 5200 0 Blue 2
5 AM Wed 77 75 N 13 4293 5200 0 Blue 2
6 AM Wed 78 76 N 13 4407 5200 0 Blue 3
7 AM Wed 80 78 N 13 5352 5200 0 Blue 5
8 AM Wed 81 80 N 16 5560 5200 0 Blue 7
9 AM Wed 83 83 N 16 6868 5555 355 Blue 10
10 AM Wed 84 86 N 16 8426 6841 1641 Blue 13
11 AM Wed 86 90 SW 5 9645 8755 3555 Blue 17
12 Noon Wed 88 93 SW 5 10561 9558 4358 Blue 20
1 PM Wed 90 95 SW 5 12110 10237 5037 White 22
2 PM Wed 91 96 SW 14 12319 10505 5305 White 23
3 PM Wed 92 96 SW 14 12319 10505 5305 White 23
4 PM Wed 93 95 SW 14 12110 10237 5037 White 22
5 PM Wed 92 92 SW 13 10292 9322 4122 Blue 19
6 PM Wed 90 89 SW 13 9352 8338 3138 Blue 16
7 PM Wed 87 85 SW 13 7732 6134 934 Blue 12
8 PM Wed 84 82 S 8 6161 5451 251 Blue 9
9 PM Wed 82 80 S 8 5560 5200 0 Blue 7
10 PM Wed 81 79 S 8 5456 5200 0 Blue 6
11 PM Wed 81 79 N 3 5456 5200 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Thu 81 79 N 3 5456 5200 0 Blue 6
1 AM Thu 81 79 N 3 5456 5200 0 Blue 6
2 AM Thu 81 79 N 10 5456 5200 0 Blue 6
3 AM Thu 81 79 N 10 5456 5200 0 Blue 6
4 AM Thu 80 78 N 10 5352 5200 0 Blue 5
5 AM Thu 80 78 N 10 5352 5200 0 Blue 5
6 AM Thu 79 77 N 10 4994 5200 0 Blue 4
7 AM Thu 79 77 N 10 4994 5200 0 Blue 4
8 AM Thu 79 78 N 8 5352 5200 0 Blue 5
9 AM Thu 80 80 N 8 5560 5200 0 Blue 7
10 AM Thu 81 83 N 8 6868 5555 355 Blue 10
11 AM Thu 82 86 SW 7 8426 6841 1641 Blue 13
12 Noon Thu 83 88 SW 7 9177 7647 2447 Blue 15
1 PM Thu 85 91 SW 7 10020 9133 3933 Blue 18
2 PM Thu 86 91 SW 14 10020 9133 3933 Blue 18
3 PM Thu 87 91 SW 14 10020 9133 3933 Blue 18
4 PM Thu 87 89 SW 14 9352 8338 3138 Blue 16
5 PM Thu 86 86 SW 13 8426 6841 1641 Blue 13
6 PM Thu 83 82 SW 13 6161 5451 251 Blue 9
7 PM Thu 80 78 SW 13 5352 5200 0 Blue 5
8 PM Thu 77 75 S 7 4293 5200 0 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 75 73 S 7 3981 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 74 72 S 7 3667 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 73 71 S 3 3635 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 73 71 S 3 3635 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 73 71 S 3 3635 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 72 70 N 1 3635 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 71 69 N 1 3635 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 70 68 N 1 3635 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 70 68 NW 2 3635 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 71 69 NW 2 3635 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 73 71 NW 2 3635 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 74 73 SE 2 3981 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 76 76 SE 2 4407 5200 0 Blue 3
10 AM Fri 76 78 SE 2 5352 5200 0 Blue 5
11 AM Fri 78 81 S 8 5803 5347 147 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 79 83 S 8 6868 5555 355 Blue 10
1 PM Fri 80 85 S 8 7732 6134 934 Blue 12
2 PM Fri 82 86 SW 15 8426 6841 1641 Blue 13
3 PM Fri 82 85 SW 15 7732 6134 934 Blue 12
4 PM Fri 82 84 SW 15 7156 5785 585 Blue 11
5 PM Fri 80 80 SW 12 5560 5200 0 Blue 7
6 PM Fri 78 77 SW 12 4994 5200 0 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 76 74 SW 12 4180 5200 0 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 73 71 S 8 3635 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 72 70 S 8 3635 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 71 69 S 8 3635 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 71 69 S 5 3635 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 70 68 S 5 3635 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 70 68 S 5 3635 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 70 68 SE 3 3635 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 70 68 SE 3 3635 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 70 68 SE 3 3635 5200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst