Detailed Predictions for: Crestline
Launch Altitude (f): 5200
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

17 SEP 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 55 53 E 6 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 56 54 NE 6 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 57 55 E 6 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 59 57 E 6 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 61 61 E 6 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 64 65 S 6 3579 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 66 69 S 9 4010 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 68 72 S 10 4492 5200 0 Blue 3
1 PM Tue 70 74 S 12 4957 5200 0 Blue 5
2 PM Tue 71 75 S 13 6102 5200 0 Blue 6
3 PM Tue 71 73 S 13 4726 5200 0 Blue 4
4 PM Tue 72 73 SW 10 4726 5200 0 Blue 4
5 PM Tue 71 70 SW 10 4140 5200 0 Blue 1
6 PM Tue 68 66 SW 9 3684 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 65 63 S 6 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 62 60 S 5 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 60 58 S 5 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 59 57 S 3 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 59 57 SE 3 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 58 56 SE 3 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 58 56 SE 5 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 57 55 SE 5 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 56 54 SE 5 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 55 53 SE 5 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 53 SE 5 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 56 54 SE 5 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 57 55 SE 5 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 59 57 SE 6 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 60 59 S 7 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 61 62 S 8 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 63 66 S 10 3684 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 65 69 S 12 4010 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 67 71 S 13 4270 5200 0 Blue 2
2 PM Wed 68 72 S 14 4492 5200 0 Blue 3
3 PM Wed 68 70 S 15 4140 5200 0 Blue 1
4 PM Wed 69 70 SW 15 4140 5200 0 Blue 1
5 PM Wed 67 66 SW 14 3684 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 65 63 S 13 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 62 60 S 9 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 59 57 S 7 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 57 55 S 7 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 56 54 SE 7 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 56 54 SE 7 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 55 53 SE 7 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 54 52 SE 8 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 54 52 SE 8 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 53 51 SE 8 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 52 50 SE 8 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 52 50 SE 8 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 52 50 SE 8 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 53 51 S 9 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 54 52 S 9 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 55 54 S 10 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 56 57 S 13 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 58 61 S 14 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 60 64 S 14 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 62 67 S 15 3790 5200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 63 67 S 15 3790 5200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 63 66 S 15 3684 5200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 64 65 SW 15 3579 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 62 61 SW 14 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 60 58 SW 12 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 57 55 SW 9 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 54 52 S 7 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 53 51 S 6 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 53 51 S 5 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 53 51 SE 3 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 52 50 E 3 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 52 50 NE 5 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 52 50 N 7 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 52 50 N 9 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 53 51 N 13 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 54 52 N 15 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 55 53 N 15 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 56 54 N 15 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 57 55 N 16 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 59 59 N 16 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 62 63 N 16 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 65 68 N 20 3895 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 68 72 N 20 4492 5200 0 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 70 74 N 20 4957 5200 0 Blue 5
2 PM Fri 72 76 N 12 7291 5200 0 Blue 7
3 PM Fri 73 75 N 12 6102 5200 0 Blue 6
4 PM Fri 72 73 N 12 4726 5200 0 Blue 4
5 PM Fri 72 71 W 7 4270 5200 0 Blue 2
6 PM Fri 68 66 W 7 3684 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 64 62 W 7 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 61 59 E 2 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 60 58 E 2 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 60 58 E 2 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 60 58 NE 7 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 60 58 NE 7 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 59 57 NE 7 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 58 56 N 12 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 57 55 N 12 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 57 55 N 12 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 57 55 N 14 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 58 56 N 14 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 58 56 N 14 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 60 58 N 14 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 62 61 N 14 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 65 66 N 14 3684 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 68 70 N 12 4140 5200 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sat 71 74 N 12 4957 5200 0 Blue 5
1 PM Sat 74 78 N 12 8804 6017 817 Blue 9
2 PM Sat 76 79 NE 8 9270 7214 2014 Blue 10
3 PM Sat 76 78 NE 8 8804 6017 817 Blue 9
4 PM Sat 77 77 NE 8 7693 5200 0 Blue 8
5 PM Sat 75 74 SW 8 4957 5200 0 Blue 5
6 PM Sat 72 70 SW 8 4140 5200 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sat 69 67 SW 8 3790 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 66 64 SE 3 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 64 62 SE 3 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 63 61 SE 3 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 63 61 E 3 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 62 60 E 3 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 62 60 E 3 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 62 60 NE 6 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 62 60 NE 6 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 61 59 NE 6 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 61 59 NE 8 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 62 60 NE 8 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 64 62 NE 8 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 66 64 NE 7 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 69 68 NE 7 3895 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 71 71 NE 7 4270 5200 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 74 77 N 6 7693 5200 0 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 76 80 N 6 9962 7653 2453 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 77 81 N 6 10351 8777 3577 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 77 80 S 12 9962 7653 2453 Blue 11
3 PM Sun 78 80 S 12 9962 7653 2453 Blue 11
4 PM Sun 77 78 S 12 8804 6017 817 Blue 9
5 PM Sun 74 73 SW 14 4726 5200 0 Blue 4
6 PM Sun 71 69 SW 14 4010 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 68 66 SW 14 3684 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 65 63 S 7 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 63 61 S 7 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 63 61 S 7 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 63 61 S 5 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 63 61 S 5 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 63 61 S 5 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 62 60 NW 6 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 61 59 NW 6 3520 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 60 58 NW 6 3520 5200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst