Detailed Predictions for: Crestline
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.2359889702, -117.312661227, 5200
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

27 FEB 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 44 42 ENE 1 2 4879 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 49 47 NE 1 1 4879 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 53 51 N 0 0 4955 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 53 51 NE 0 1 4955 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 52 50 ENE 1 1 4879 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 51 49 ESE 1 2 4879 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 46 44 E 2 4 4879 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 41 39 ENE 2 6 4879 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 36 35 NNE 3 8 4879 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 39 39 SE 4 9 4879 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 42 43 SW 4 10 4879 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 45 47 NNW 5 11 4879 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 47 50 NNW 6 13 4879 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 48 50 NNW 7 15 4879 5200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 50 51 NNW 8 17 4955 5200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 50 50 NNW 9 19 4879 5200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 50 48 NNW 10 21 4879 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 49 47 NNW 10 22 4879 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 47 45 SW 10 19 4879 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 45 43 ESE 10 16 4879 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 42 40 N 10 13 4879 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 39 37 NNE 9 12 4879 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 36 34 NNE 9 11 4879 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 33 31 NNE 8 10 4879 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 37 35 NNE 8 10 4879 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 41 39 NNE 8 11 4879 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 45 43 NNE 8 11 4879 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 44 42 NNE 8 11 4879 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 43 41 NNE 9 12 4879 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 43 41 NNE 9 12 4879 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 38 36 NNE 9 14 4879 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 34 32 NNE 9 17 4879 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 29 28 NNE 9 19 4879 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 33 33 NNE 9 20 4879 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 37 38 NNE 9 20 4879 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 41 43 NNE 10 21 4879 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 43 46 NNE 8 18 4879 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 45 47 NNE 7 15 4879 5200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 46 47 N 6 12 4879 5200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 46 46 SE 6 13 4879 5200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 46 44 WSW 6 14 4879 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 46 44 N 7 15 4879 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 45 43 WSW 6 12 4879 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 43 41 SE 5 10 4879 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 42 40 NE 5 7 4879 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 40 38 NE 4 7 4879 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 37 35 NNE 4 7 4879 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 35 33 NNE 4 7 4879 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 39 37 NNE 4 7 4879 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 43 41 NNE 4 6 4879 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 47 45 NNE 3 6 4879 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 46 44 NNE 3 6 4879 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 46 44 NNE 4 6 4879 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 45 43 NNE 4 7 4879 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 42 40 NNE 4 7 4879 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 38 36 NNE 3 7 4879 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 34 33 NNE 3 8 4879 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 39 39 SE 2 6 4879 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 45 46 WSW 2 4 4879 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 50 52 N 1 2 5293 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 51 54 WNW 2 4 5960 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 53 55 WSW 3 6 6289 5293 93 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 55 56 S 4 8 6615 5624 424 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 54 54 S 4 8 5960 5200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 53 51 S 4 8 4955 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 53 51 S 4 9 4955 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 50 48 S 3 6 4879 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 48 46 S 2 4 4879 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 45 43 S 1 2 4879 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 43 41 SSE 1 2 4879 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 41 39 SE 2 3 4879 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 38 36 E 2 4 4879 5200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst