Detailed Predictions for: Crestline
Launch Altitude (f): 5200
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

16 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 66 64 NE 3 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 67 65 E 5 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 69 67 E 5 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 71 70 S 6 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 72 73 S 8 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 73 76 S 10 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 74 79 S 13 4209 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 76 82 S 14 5086 5200 0 Blue 1
1 PM Tue 78 84 S 15 6025 5200 0 Blue 3
2 PM Tue 80 86 SW 16 7054 5358 158 Blue 5
3 PM Tue 80 85 SW 16 6637 5200 0 Blue 4
4 PM Tue 81 84 SW 16 6025 5200 0 Blue 3
5 PM Tue 80 81 SW 15 4805 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 77 76 SW 14 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 74 72 SW 12 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 71 69 S 9 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 69 67 S 8 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 67 65 S 8 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 66 64 SE 7 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 65 63 SE 7 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 64 62 SE 7 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 63 61 SE 6 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 62 60 SE 6 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 61 59 SE 7 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 61 59 SE 7 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 62 60 SE 7 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 64 62 SE 7 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 66 65 S 8 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 68 69 S 9 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 70 73 S 12 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 71 75 S 14 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 74 79 S 14 4209 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 76 82 S 15 5086 5200 0 Blue 1
2 PM Wed 78 83 S 15 5387 5200 0 Blue 2
3 PM Wed 77 81 S 16 4805 5200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 77 79 SW 16 4209 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 76 76 SW 15 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 73 72 S 14 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 70 68 S 12 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 67 65 S 9 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 65 63 S 8 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 64 62 S 8 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 62 60 SE 7 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 61 59 SE 7 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 60 58 SE 7 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 60 58 SE 7 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 59 57 SE 6 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 56 SE 6 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 58 56 SE 6 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 60 58 SE 6 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 62 60 SE 7 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 65 64 S 7 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 67 68 S 8 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 68 71 S 10 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 69 73 S 12 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 71 76 S 13 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 73 79 S 14 4209 5200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 74 79 S 14 4209 5200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 74 78 S 15 3909 5200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 75 77 SW 15 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 73 73 SW 14 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 70 69 S 13 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 66 64 S 10 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 63 61 S 9 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 62 60 S 8 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 61 59 S 8 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 60 58 S 7 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 60 58 S 7 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 59 57 S 7 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 58 56 S 6 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 58 56 S 6 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 57 55 S 6 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 57 55 S 6 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 58 56 S 6 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 60 58 S 6 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 62 61 S 7 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 64 65 S 7 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 65 67 S 7 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 67 72 S 10 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 69 75 S 10 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 70 76 S 10 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 72 78 S 14 3909 5200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 72 77 S 14 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 73 76 S 14 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 72 73 SW 13 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 69 68 SW 13 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 66 64 SW 13 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 63 61 S 8 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 61 59 S 8 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 60 58 S 8 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 59 57 S 6 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 59 57 S 6 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 58 56 S 6 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 57 55 S 6 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 56 54 S 6 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 56 54 S 6 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 56 54 S 6 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 57 55 S 6 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 58 56 S 6 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 60 59 S 7 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 61 62 S 7 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 63 66 S 7 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 65 69 S 10 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 67 72 S 10 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 69 75 S 10 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 70 75 S 14 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 70 74 S 14 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 71 73 S 14 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 70 70 SW 13 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 68 67 SW 13 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 66 64 SW 13 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 64 62 S 8 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 63 61 S 8 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 62 60 S 8 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 62 60 S 6 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 61 59 S 6 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 61 59 S 6 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 60 58 S 5 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 59 57 S 5 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 59 57 S 5 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 60 58 S 5 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 61 59 S 5 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 64 62 S 5 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 66 65 S 5 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 68 69 S 5 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 70 73 S 5 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 72 76 S 9 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 74 79 S 9 4209 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 76 81 S 9 4805 5200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 78 83 S 13 5387 5200 0 Blue 2
3 PM Sun 79 83 S 13 5387 5200 0 Blue 2
4 PM Sun 78 80 S 13 4508 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 78 78 SW 12 3909 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 75 74 SW 12 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 72 70 SW 12 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 70 68 S 6 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 69 67 S 6 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 68 66 S 6 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 68 66 S 5 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 67 65 S 5 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 66 64 S 5 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 64 62 S 5 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 64 62 S 5 3704 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 64 62 S 5 3704 5200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst