Detailed Predictions for: Crestline
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.2359889702, -117.312661227, 5200
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

16 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 59 57 SSE 2 5 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 58 56 S 1 5 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 58 56 SSE 1 5 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 58 56 SSE 2 6 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 59 57 SSE 2 6 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 59 57 SSE 2 5 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 60 58 SSE 2 6 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 60 58 SSE 3 8 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 62 60 SSE 3 8 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 65 65 S 4 10 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 67 68 S 6 12 3273 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 69 72 S 8 14 4356 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 70 74 S 9 16 4886 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 72 77 S 10 18 5396 5200 0 Blue 3
2 PM Thu 72 76 S 11 18 5226 5200 0 Blue 2
3 PM Thu 73 76 S 11 19 5226 5200 0 Blue 2
4 PM Thu 72 73 S 11 19 4624 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 69 68 SSW 10 17 3273 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 67 65 S 8 14 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 62 60 S 6 12 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 59 57 S 4 10 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 58 56 S 4 9 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 58 56 SSE 3 8 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 59 57 SSE 3 8 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 59 57 SSE 3 8 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 58 56 SSE 3 8 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 58 56 SSE 3 9 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 58 56 SSE 3 9 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 59 57 SE 3 9 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 59 57 SE 3 9 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 60 58 SE 3 9 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 60 58 SSE 3 9 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 62 60 SSE 4 9 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 66 65 SSE 5 10 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 68 69 S 6 12 3546 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 70 72 S 8 13 4356 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 71 74 S 9 16 4886 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 72 76 S 9 17 5226 5200 0 Blue 2
2 PM Fri 73 76 S 10 17 5226 5200 0 Blue 2
3 PM Fri 74 76 S 10 17 5226 5200 0 Blue 2
4 PM Fri 73 73 SSW 10 17 4624 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 71 70 SSW 9 16 3817 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 68 66 SSW 6 13 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 63 61 S 4 10 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 61 59 SSE 2 6 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 60 58 SSE 2 6 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 60 58 SSE 3 8 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 61 59 SE 3 9 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 61 59 SE 4 9 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 60 58 SE 4 9 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 60 58 SE 4 9 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 60 58 SE 4 10 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 61 59 SE 4 10 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 61 59 SE 4 10 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 61 59 SE 4 10 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 61 59 SSE 4 10 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 63 61 SSE 4 10 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 66 65 S 5 11 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 68 69 S 6 13 3546 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 69 72 S 9 16 4356 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 70 74 S 10 18 4886 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 71 75 SSW 12 20 5056 5200 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sat 71 74 SSW 13 23 4886 5200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 72 74 SSW 14 24 4886 5200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 71 72 SSW 14 25 4356 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 68 67 SSW 13 23 2999 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 66 64 SSW 11 19 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 60 58 S 8 13 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 57 55 S 4 9 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 56 54 S 3 8 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 56 54 SSE 3 8 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 57 55 SSE 3 8 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 57 55 SSE 3 8 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 56 54 S 3 8 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 56 54 S 2 6 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 56 54 S 2 6 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 57 55 S 2 6 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 57 55 SSE 2 6 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 58 56 SSE 2 6 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 58 56 SSE 2 6 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 60 58 SSE 2 6 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 63 63 SSE 2 6 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 65 66 SSE 2 6 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 66 69 S 5 11 3546 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 68 72 S 5 11 4356 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 69 73 S 5 11 4624 5200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 69 73 SSW 9 16 4624 5200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 70 73 SSW 9 16 4624 5200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 69 70 SSW 9 16 3817 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 66 65 SSW 9 16 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 64 62 SSW 9 16 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 58 56 SSW 9 16 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 56 54 S 3 9 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 56 54 S 3 9 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 55 53 S 3 9 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 56 54 S 2 6 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 56 54 S 2 6 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 55 53 S 2 6 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 56 54 SE 2 5 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 56 54 SE 2 5 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 56 54 SE 2 5 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 57 55 NNE 4 10 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 57 55 NNE 4 10 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 57 55 NNE 4 10 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 60 58 NNE 12 20 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 65 65 NNE 12 20 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 68 69 NNE 12 20 3546 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 70 73 NNE 12 20 4624 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 72 76 NNE 12 20 5226 5200 0 Blue 2
1 PM Mon 73 77 NNE 12 20 5396 5200 0 Blue 3
2 PM Mon 74 78 NNE 5 12 5565 5200 0 Blue 4
3 PM Mon 75 78 NNE 5 12 5565 5200 0 Blue 4
4 PM Mon 74 75 NNE 5 12 5056 5200 0 Blue 1
5 PM Mon 72 71 SW 3 9 4088 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 69 67 SW 3 9 2999 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 64 62 SW 3 9 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 62 60 E 3 8 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 61 59 E 3 8 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 61 59 E 3 8 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 62 60 ENE 5 11 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 62 60 ENE 5 11 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 61 59 ENE 5 11 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 62 60 ENE 6 12 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 62 60 ENE 6 12 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 62 60 ENE 6 12 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 62 60 NNE 5 11 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 63 61 NNE 5 11 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 63 61 NNE 5 11 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 65 63 NNE 6 12 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 69 69 NNE 6 12 3546 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 71 72 NNE 6 12 4356 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 73 76 N 5 11 5226 5200 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Tue 74 78 N 5 11 5565 5200 0 Blue 4
1 PM Tue 75 79 N 5 11 5735 5219 19 Blue 5
2 PM Tue 76 80 SSW 6 12 6846 5388 188 Blue 6
3 PM Tue 76 78 SSW 6 12 5565 5200 0 Blue 4
4 PM Tue 76 77 SSW 6 12 5396 5200 0 Blue 3
5 PM Tue 73 72 SW 6 12 4356 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 70 68 SW 6 12 3273 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 65 63 SW 6 12 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 62 60 SSE 3 9 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 62 60 SSE 3 9 2976 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 61 59 SSE 3 9 2976 5200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst