Detailed Predictions for: Crestline
Launch Altitude (f): 5200
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 54 52 NE 3 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 54 52 NE 5 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 55 53 NE 5 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 56 54 NE 5 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 59 57 E 3 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 62 61 E 2 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 65 64 S 5 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 66 65 S 6 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 66 65 S 7 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 67 66 S 8 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 66 64 S 8 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 64 62 S 8 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 62 60 S 7 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 60 58 S 6 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 57 55 S 6 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 56 54 SE 5 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 55 53 SE 5 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 55 53 SE 5 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 54 52 SE 5 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 54 52 SE 5 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 54 52 SE 5 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 53 51 SE 5 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 53 51 SE 6 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 53 51 SE 6 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 53 51 SE 5 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 53 51 SE 5 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 53 51 SE 5 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 54 52 SE 5 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 56 54 SE 5 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 59 57 S 6 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 61 59 S 7 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 62 61 S 8 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 63 62 S 9 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 62 61 S 9 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 63 61 S 9 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 62 60 S 8 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 61 59 S 8 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 60 58 S 7 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 58 56 S 7 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 57 55 SE 6 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 56 54 SE 6 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 56 54 SE 6 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 56 54 SE 6 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 56 54 SE 6 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 56 54 SE 7 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 55 53 SE 7 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 55 53 SE 7 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 54 52 SE 7 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 53 51 SE 7 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 52 50 SE 7 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 52 50 SE 6 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 53 51 SE 6 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 55 53 SE 6 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 58 56 S 6 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 60 60 S 6 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 62 62 S 7 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 63 63 S 7 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 62 62 S 7 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 62 61 S 7 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 62 60 S 6 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 61 59 S 5 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 59 57 SW 3 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 57 55 NW 3 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 55 53 N 5 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 54 52 N 7 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 55 53 N 12 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 55 53 N 14 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 55 53 N 15 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 54 52 N 15 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 53 51 N 15 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 52 50 N 16 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 51 49 N 17 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 51 49 N 18 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 52 50 N 18 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 53 51 N 18 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 55 53 NE 18 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 57 55 NE 18 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 60 59 NE 18 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 63 63 NE 18 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 65 66 NE 18 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 67 68 NE 18 4105 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 68 68 NE 18 4105 5200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 67 67 NE 18 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 68 67 NE 18 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 67 65 NE 16 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 66 64 NE 16 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 65 63 NE 16 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 64 62 NE 20 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 63 61 NE 20 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 62 60 NE 20 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 61 59 NE 21 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 59 57 NE 21 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 58 56 NE 21 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 57 55 N 21 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 56 54 N 21 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 55 53 N 21 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 54 52 N 22 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 54 52 N 22 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 54 52 N 22 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 55 53 NE 24 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 57 55 NE 24 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 60 59 NE 24 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 62 62 N 23 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 64 65 N 23 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 67 68 N 23 4105 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 68 68 N 17 4105 5200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 68 67 N 17 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 69 67 N 17 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 68 66 N 14 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 65 63 N 14 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 62 60 N 14 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 59 57 N 14 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 58 56 N 14 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 57 55 N 14 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 56 54 N 14 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 55 53 N 14 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 54 52 N 14 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 54 52 NE 15 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 55 53 NE 15 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 55 53 NE 15 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 56 54 N 16 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 55 53 N 16 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 54 52 N 16 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 55 53 N 13 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 57 55 N 13 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 61 60 N 13 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 64 64 N 6 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 67 68 N 6 4105 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 69 70 N 6 5246 5200 0 Blue 2
1 PM Mon 68 68 SW 8 4105 5200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 68 67 SW 8 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 67 65 SW 8 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 66 64 SW 7 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 63 61 SW 7 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 61 59 SW 7 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 59 57 S 6 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 58 56 S 6 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 57 55 S 6 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 57 55 S 6 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 56 54 S 6 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 55 53 S 6 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 54 52 SE 6 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 54 52 SE 6 3707 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 53 51 SE 6 3707 5200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst