Detailed Predictions for: Crestline
Launch Altitude (f): 5200
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Tue 40 38 N 24 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 39 37 N 25 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 39 37 N 25 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 40 38 N 25 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 42 40 N 26 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 45 44 N 28 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 48 48 N 28 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 50 50 N 28 3468 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 52 53 N 26 4446 5200 0 Blue 2
1 PM Tue 51 51 N 26 4045 5200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 52 51 N 25 4045 5200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 51 49 N 25 2871 5200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 49 47 N 24 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 48 46 N 23 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 46 44 N 23 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 45 43 N 24 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 44 42 N 23 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 43 41 N 23 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 42 40 N 22 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 42 40 N 22 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 42 40 N 22 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 41 39 N 22 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 41 39 N 22 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 40 38 N 22 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 40 38 N 22 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 39 37 N 22 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 39 37 N 22 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 40 38 N 22 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 42 40 N 22 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 44 43 N 23 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 47 47 N 23 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 51 51 N 23 4045 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 54 54 N 22 4478 5200 0 Blue 3
1 PM Wed 56 56 N 22 4544 5200 0 Blue 4
2 PM Wed 55 54 N 21 4478 5200 0 Blue 3
3 PM Wed 55 53 N 20 4446 5200 0 Blue 2
4 PM Wed 53 51 N 20 4045 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 51 49 N 20 2871 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 50 48 N 20 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 48 46 N 18 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 47 45 N 18 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 46 44 N 17 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 45 43 N 17 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 44 42 N 18 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 44 42 N 18 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 43 41 N 20 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 42 40 N 20 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 42 40 N 21 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 41 39 N 21 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 40 38 N 21 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 40 38 N 21 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 40 38 N 21 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 42 40 N 21 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 45 44 N 20 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 48 48 N 18 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 50 51 N 17 4045 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 53 54 N 15 4478 5200 0 Blue 3
1 PM Thu 55 55 N 13 4511 5200 0 Blue 3
2 PM Thu 56 55 N 12 4511 5200 0 Blue 3
3 PM Thu 56 54 N 10 4478 5200 0 Blue 3
4 PM Thu 56 54 N 9 4478 5200 0 Blue 3
5 PM Thu 54 52 N 8 4363 5200 0 Blue 1
6 PM Thu 52 50 N 7 3468 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 50 48 N 6 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 49 47 NE 5 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 49 47 E 3 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 49 47 E 2 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 49 47 E 3 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 49 47 N 5 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 48 46 N 6 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 47 45 N 6 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 45 43 N 8 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 45 43 NE 9 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 46 44 NE 9 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 48 46 NE 9 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 49 47 NE 9 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 51 49 NE 9 2871 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 52 51 NE 9 4045 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 54 54 S 5 4478 5200 0 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 54 54 S 5 4478 5200 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Fri 55 55 S 5 4511 5200 0 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 56 56 SW 9 4544 5200 0 Blue 4
2 PM Fri 56 55 SW 9 4511 5200 0 Blue 3
3 PM Fri 56 54 SW 9 4478 5200 0 Blue 3
4 PM Fri 54 52 SW 10 4363 5200 0 Blue 1
5 PM Fri 52 50 SW 10 3468 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 50 48 SW 10 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 47 45 S 6 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 46 44 S 6 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 46 44 S 6 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 45 43 SE 5 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 44 42 SE 5 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 44 42 SE 5 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 43 41 SE 3 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 42 40 SE 3 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 42 40 SE 3 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 42 40 N 3 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 43 41 N 3 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 44 42 N 3 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 45 43 N 5 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 47 45 N 5 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 49 48 N 5 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 51 51 W 5 4045 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 52 52 W 5 4363 5200 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sat 53 53 W 5 4446 5200 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sat 54 54 SW 9 4478 5200 0 Blue 3
2 PM Sat 54 53 SW 9 4446 5200 0 Blue 2
3 PM Sat 54 52 SW 9 4363 5200 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sat 53 51 SW 8 4045 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 52 50 SW 8 3468 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 50 48 SW 8 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 48 46 SE 3 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 47 45 SE 3 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 47 45 SE 3 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 47 45 N 3 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 47 45 N 3 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 46 44 N 3 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 46 44 N 15 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 47 45 N 15 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 48 46 N 15 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 48 46 NE 12 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 47 45 NE 12 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 46 44 NE 12 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 46 44 NE 10 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 47 45 NE 10 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 49 48 NE 10 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 50 50 NE 8 3468 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 52 52 NE 8 4363 5200 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sun 53 53 NE 8 4446 5200 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sun 54 54 SE 3 4478 5200 0 Blue 3
2 PM Sun 54 53 SE 3 4446 5200 0 Blue 2
3 PM Sun 54 52 SE 3 4363 5200 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sun 53 51 S 2 4045 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 52 50 S 2 3468 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 51 49 S 2 2871 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 50 48 E 5 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 48 46 E 5 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 46 44 E 5 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 45 43 NE 5 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 44 42 NE 5 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 43 41 NE 5 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 42 40 NE 8 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 42 40 NE 8 2867 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 41 39 NE 8 2867 5200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst