Detailed Predictions for: Crestline
Launch Altitude (f): 5200
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

19 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sun 43 41 N 13 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 42 40 N 13 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 42 40 N 13 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 43 41 N 13 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 47 45 N 13 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 51 50 N 12 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 56 56 N 10 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 60 60 N 9 4444 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 63 64 N 7 6007 5200 0 Blue 4
1 PM Sun 64 64 N 6 6007 5200 0 Blue 4
2 PM Sun 64 63 N 7 5942 5200 0 Blue 3
3 PM Sun 64 62 N 7 5234 5200 0 Blue 2
4 PM Sun 63 61 N 7 4698 5200 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sun 60 58 N 8 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 56 54 N 8 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 53 51 NE 8 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 50 48 NE 8 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 49 47 N 7 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 48 46 N 7 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 47 45 N 6 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 46 44 N 6 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 46 44 N 5 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 46 44 N 5 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 47 45 N 5 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 47 45 NE 6 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 47 45 NE 5 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 48 46 NE 5 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 50 48 NE 3 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 54 52 N 3 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 59 58 NE 1 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 63 62 S 1 5234 5200 0 Blue 2
11 AM Mon 66 66 S 2 6139 5938 738 Blue 6
12 Noon Mon 68 68 S 1 6303 6069 869 Blue 8
1 PM Mon 67 66 SW 3 6139 5938 738 Blue 6
2 PM Mon 68 67 SW 3 6212 6003 803 Blue 7
3 PM Mon 66 64 SW 3 6007 5200 0 Blue 4
4 PM Mon 64 62 SW 1 5234 5200 0 Blue 2
5 PM Mon 62 60 NW 2 4444 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 59 57 N 6 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 57 55 N 12 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 57 55 N 16 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 58 56 N 17 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 58 56 N 20 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 58 56 N 20 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 56 54 N 20 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 55 53 N 20 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 55 53 N 20 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 55 53 N 18 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 54 52 N 17 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 52 50 N 17 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 51 49 N 17 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 51 49 N 18 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 53 51 N 17 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 57 56 N 17 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 61 60 N 16 4444 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 65 65 N 16 6073 5200 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Tue 68 68 N 15 6303 6069 869 Blue 8
1 PM Tue 72 72 N 15 7511 6387 1187 Blue 12
2 PM Tue 73 72 N 14 7511 6387 1187 Blue 12
3 PM Tue 73 71 N 14 6875 6296 1096 Blue 11
4 PM Tue 73 71 N 13 6875 6296 1096 Blue 11
5 PM Tue 70 68 N 12 6303 6069 869 Blue 8
6 PM Tue 66 64 N 12 6007 5200 0 Blue 4
7 PM Tue 63 61 N 10 4698 5200 0 Blue 1
8 PM Tue 62 60 N 9 4444 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 63 61 N 10 4698 5200 0 Blue 1
10 PM Tue 63 61 N 13 4698 5200 0 Blue 1
11 PM Tue 62 60 N 14 4444 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 61 59 N 14 3709 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 60 58 N 15 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 59 57 N 16 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 58 56 N 16 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 57 55 N 16 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 56 54 N 16 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 56 54 N 16 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 57 55 N 16 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 60 58 N 16 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 63 62 N 16 5234 5200 0 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 67 67 N 14 6212 6003 803 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 70 71 N 14 6875 6296 1096 Blue 11
12 Noon Wed 72 73 N 14 8071 6528 1328 Blue 13
1 PM Wed 74 74 N 14 8363 6814 1614 Blue 14
2 PM Wed 76 75 N 14 8653 7440 2240 Blue 15
3 PM Wed 76 74 N 14 8363 6814 1614 Blue 14
4 PM Wed 75 73 N 10 8071 6528 1328 Blue 13
5 PM Wed 72 70 N 10 6539 6205 1005 Blue 10
6 PM Wed 69 67 N 10 6212 6003 803 Blue 7
7 PM Wed 65 63 N 8 5942 5200 0 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 63 61 N 8 4698 5200 0 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 62 60 N 8 4444 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 61 59 N 10 3709 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 61 59 N 10 3709 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 60 58 N 10 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 60 58 N 13 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 60 58 N 13 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 60 58 N 13 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 59 57 NE 13 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 59 57 NE 13 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 59 57 NE 13 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 60 58 NE 10 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 63 61 NE 10 4698 5200 0 Blue 1
9 AM Thu 66 65 NE 10 6073 5200 0 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 70 70 NE 6 6539 6205 1005 Blue 10
11 AM Thu 73 74 NE 6 8363 6814 1614 Blue 14
12 Noon Thu 75 76 NE 6 8940 8032 2832 Blue 16
1 PM Thu 76 76 N 1 8940 8032 2832 Blue 16
2 PM Thu 76 75 N 1 8653 7440 2240 Blue 15
3 PM Thu 76 74 N 1 8363 6814 1614 Blue 14
4 PM Thu 74 72 W 2 7511 6387 1187 Blue 12
5 PM Thu 72 70 W 2 6539 6205 1005 Blue 10
6 PM Thu 69 67 W 2 6212 6003 803 Blue 7
7 PM Thu 66 64 E 2 6007 5200 0 Blue 4
8 PM Thu 64 62 E 2 5234 5200 0 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 63 61 E 2 4698 5200 0 Blue 1
10 PM Thu 62 60 N 1 4444 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 61 59 N 1 3709 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 61 59 N 1 3709 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 60 58 SE 2 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 60 58 SE 2 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 59 57 SE 2 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 59 57 S 0 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 60 58 S 0 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 61 59 S 0 3709 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 63 61 SE 1 4698 5200 0 Blue 1
8 AM Fri 65 63 SE 1 5942 5200 0 Blue 3
9 AM Fri 66 65 SE 1 6073 5200 0 Blue 5
10 AM Fri 68 68 S 3 6303 6069 869 Blue 8
11 AM Fri 70 70 S 3 6539 6205 1005 Blue 10
12 Noon Fri 71 71 S 3 6875 6296 1096 Blue 11
1 PM Fri 72 72 S 7 7511 6387 1187 Blue 12
2 PM Fri 72 71 S 7 6875 6296 1096 Blue 11
3 PM Fri 71 69 S 7 6398 6134 934 Blue 9
4 PM Fri 69 67 SW 6 6212 6003 803 Blue 7
5 PM Fri 66 64 SW 6 6007 5200 0 Blue 4
6 PM Fri 62 60 SW 6 4444 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 60 58 S 5 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 59 57 S 5 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 59 57 S 5 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 58 56 S 2 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 57 55 S 2 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 55 53 S 2 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 54 52 NE 2 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 54 52 NE 2 3140 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 56 54 NE 2 3140 5200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst