Detailed Predictions for: Crestline
Launch Altitude (f): 5200
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Thu 42 40 S 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 42 40 S 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 42 40 S 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 43 41 S 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 43 41 SE 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 44 42 SE 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 44 42 SE 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 45 43 SE 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 45 43 S 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 46 44 S 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 45 43 S 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 46 44 S 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 45 43 S 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 42 40 S 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 43 41 S 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 43 41 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 43 41 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 42 40 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 44 42 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 42 40 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 42 40 S 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 41 39 W 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 40 38 SE 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 40 38 SE 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 40 38 SE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 39 37 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 39 37 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 41 39 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 41 39 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 42 40 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 43 42 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 44 44 N 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 44 44 N 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 45 45 N 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 45 44 N 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 46 44 N 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 45 43 N 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 44 42 N 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 44 42 N 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 44 42 N 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 44 42 N 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 44 42 N 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 45 43 N 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 44 42 N 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 43 41 N 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 43 41 N 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 43 41 N 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 42 40 N 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 42 40 N 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 42 40 N 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 42 40 N 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 46 44 N 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 46 44 N 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 47 46 N 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 50 49 N 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 50 50 N 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 52 52 N 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 54 54 N 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 54 53 N 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 55 54 N 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 53 51 N 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 50 48 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 50 48 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 50 48 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 50 48 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 50 48 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 52 50 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 50 48 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 48 46 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 48 46 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 47 45 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 46 44 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 46 44 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 45 43 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 45 43 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 48 46 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 48 46 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 49 47 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 51 50 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 52 51 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 53 52 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 54 53 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 55 54 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 55 53 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 52 50 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 48 46 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 48 46 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 48 46 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 48 46 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 47 45 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 50 48 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 47 45 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 45 43 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 44 42 N 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 43 41 N 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 42 40 N 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 42 40 N 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 40 38 N 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 40 38 N 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 41 39 N 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 41 39 N 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 41 39 N 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 42 42 N 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 42 42 N 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 42 42 N 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 43 43 NE 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 43 42 NE 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 43 42 NE 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 41 39 N 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 38 36 N 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 38 36 N 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 38 36 NE 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 38 36 NE 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 38 36 NE 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 40 38 N 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 38 36 N 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 36 34 N 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 36 34 N 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 35 33 N 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 34 32 N 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 34 32 NE 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 33 31 NE 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 33 31 NE 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 36 34 NE 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 37 35 NE 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 38 37 NE 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 40 40 N 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 41 41 N 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 42 43 N 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 44 44 NE 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 45 45 NE 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 45 44 NE 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 44 42 NE 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 41 39 NE 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 41 39 NE 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 41 39 NE 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 41 39 NE 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 41 39 NE 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 42 40 NE 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 41 39 NE 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 40 38 NE 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 39 37 NE 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 39 37 NE 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 38 36 NE 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst