Detailed Predictions for: Crestline
Launch Altitude (f): 5200
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

23 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 46 44 N 21 3638 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 45 43 N 21 3638 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 45 43 N 21 3638 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 48 46 N 22 3638 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 53 52 N 23 3638 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 56 56 N 22 5029 5200 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 57 59 N 17 5973 5200 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 60 63 N 17 7514 6336 1136 Blue 10
1 PM Sat 62 65 N 16 8269 7097 1897 Blue 12
2 PM Sat 62 65 N 14 8269 7097 1897 Blue 12
3 PM Sat 63 65 N 13 8269 7097 1897 Blue 12
4 PM Sat 63 63 N 13 7514 6336 1136 Blue 10
5 PM Sat 60 59 N 9 5973 5200 0 Blue 6
6 PM Sat 58 56 N 8 5029 5200 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 54 52 N 7 3638 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 52 50 E 7 3638 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 50 48 E 7 3638 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 50 48 E 6 3638 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 50 48 N 13 3638 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 50 48 N 14 3638 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 50 48 N 15 3638 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 50 48 N 20 3638 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 50 48 N 21 3638 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 50 48 N 20 3638 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 50 48 N 23 3638 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 49 47 N 22 3638 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 49 47 N 22 3638 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 52 50 N 21 3638 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 57 56 N 21 5029 5200 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 60 61 N 20 6754 5553 353 Blue 8
11 AM Sun 61 63 N 17 7514 6336 1136 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 64 68 N 16 9444 8211 3011 Blue 15
1 PM Sun 66 70 N 16 9930 9158 3958 Blue 17
2 PM Sun 66 69 N 13 9687 8760 3560 Blue 16
3 PM Sun 67 69 N 13 9687 8760 3560 Blue 16
4 PM Sun 67 67 N 13 9200 7838 2638 Blue 14
5 PM Sun 64 63 N 15 7514 6336 1136 Blue 10
6 PM Sun 61 59 N 15 5973 5200 0 Blue 6
7 PM Sun 57 55 N 15 4909 5200 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sun 55 53 NE 15 4353 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 53 51 NE 15 3638 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 53 51 NE 15 3638 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 53 51 N 17 3638 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 52 50 N 18 3638 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 53 51 N 20 3638 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 53 51 N 24 3638 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 53 51 N 25 3638 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 52 50 N 24 3638 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 53 51 N 26 3638 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 52 50 N 26 3638 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 52 50 N 26 3638 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 55 53 N 28 4353 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 60 59 N 28 5973 5200 0 Blue 6
10 AM Mon 63 64 N 28 7886 6719 1519 Blue 11
11 AM Mon 64 66 N 28 8895 7470 2270 Blue 13
12 Noon Mon 67 70 N 28 9930 9158 3958 Blue 17
1 PM Mon 69 73 N 28 10626 9882 4682 Blue 20
2 PM Mon 69 72 N 25 10389 9641 4441 Blue 19
3 PM Mon 70 72 N 25 10389 9641 4441 Blue 19
4 PM Mon 70 70 N 25 9930 9158 3958 Blue 17
5 PM Mon 67 66 N 26 8895 7470 2270 Blue 13
6 PM Mon 64 62 N 26 7136 5947 747 Blue 9
7 PM Mon 59 57 N 26 5253 5200 0 Blue 4
8 PM Mon 57 55 NE 21 4909 5200 0 Blue 2
9 PM Mon 55 53 NE 21 4353 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 55 53 NE 21 4353 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 55 53 NE 21 4353 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 55 53 NE 21 4353 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 55 53 NE 21 4353 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 55 53 N 26 4353 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 55 53 N 26 4353 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 54 52 N 26 3638 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 55 53 N 28 4353 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 54 52 N 28 3638 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 54 52 N 28 3638 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 58 56 N 30 5029 5200 0 Blue 3
9 AM Tue 62 61 N 30 6754 5553 353 Blue 8
10 AM Tue 66 67 N 30 9200 7838 2638 Blue 14
11 AM Tue 67 69 N 25 9687 8760 3560 Blue 16
12 Noon Tue 69 72 N 25 10389 9641 4441 Blue 19
1 PM Tue 71 74 N 25 10900 10115 4915 Blue 21
2 PM Tue 72 75 N 24 11172 10340 5140 Blue 22
3 PM Tue 74 76 N 24 11443 10566 5366 Blue 23
4 PM Tue 73 73 N 24 10626 9882 4682 Blue 20
5 PM Tue 70 69 N 17 9687 8760 3560 Blue 16
6 PM Tue 67 65 N 17 8269 7097 1897 Blue 12
7 PM Tue 62 60 N 17 6367 5243 43 Blue 7
8 PM Tue 60 58 NE 14 5574 5200 0 Blue 5
9 PM Tue 58 56 NE 14 5029 5200 0 Blue 3
10 PM Tue 58 56 NE 14 5029 5200 0 Blue 3
11 PM Tue 58 56 NE 16 5029 5200 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Wed 58 56 NE 16 5029 5200 0 Blue 3
1 AM Wed 58 56 NE 16 5029 5200 0 Blue 3
2 AM Wed 58 56 NE 20 5029 5200 0 Blue 3
3 AM Wed 58 56 NE 20 5029 5200 0 Blue 3
4 AM Wed 58 56 NE 20 5029 5200 0 Blue 3
5 AM Wed 58 56 N 31 5029 5200 0 Blue 3
6 AM Wed 57 55 N 31 4909 5200 0 Blue 2
7 AM Wed 57 55 N 31 4909 5200 0 Blue 2
8 AM Wed 61 59 N 31 5973 5200 0 Blue 6
9 AM Wed 65 64 N 31 7886 6719 1519 Blue 11
10 AM Wed 68 69 N 31 9687 8760 3560 Blue 16
11 AM Wed 70 72 N 28 10389 9641 4441 Blue 19
12 Noon Wed 72 75 N 28 11172 10340 5140 Blue 22
1 PM Wed 74 78 N 28 12683 11107 5907 White 25
2 PM Wed 75 78 NE 20 12683 11107 5907 White 25
3 PM Wed 77 79 NE 20 12885 11376 6176 White 26
4 PM Wed 76 76 NE 20 11443 10566 5366 Blue 23
5 PM Wed 73 72 N 17 10389 9641 4441 Blue 19
6 PM Wed 70 68 N 17 9444 8211 3011 Blue 15
7 PM Wed 65 63 N 17 7514 6336 1136 Blue 10
8 PM Wed 62 60 NE 16 6367 5243 43 Blue 7
9 PM Wed 60 58 NE 16 5574 5200 0 Blue 5
10 PM Wed 60 58 NE 16 5574 5200 0 Blue 5
11 PM Wed 60 58 NE 20 5574 5200 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Thu 60 58 NE 20 5574 5200 0 Blue 5
1 AM Thu 60 58 NE 20 5574 5200 0 Blue 5
2 AM Thu 60 58 N 24 5574 5200 0 Blue 5
3 AM Thu 60 58 N 24 5574 5200 0 Blue 5
4 AM Thu 60 58 N 24 5574 5200 0 Blue 5
5 AM Thu 60 58 NE 24 5574 5200 0 Blue 5
6 AM Thu 59 57 NE 24 5253 5200 0 Blue 4
7 AM Thu 59 57 NE 24 5253 5200 0 Blue 4
8 AM Thu 63 61 N 25 6754 5553 353 Blue 8
9 AM Thu 67 66 N 25 8895 7470 2270 Blue 13
10 AM Thu 70 71 N 25 10161 9400 4200 Blue 18
11 AM Thu 72 74 N 23 10900 10115 4915 Blue 21
12 Noon Thu 74 77 N 23 11712 10837 5637 Blue 24
1 PM Thu 76 80 N 23 13088 11642 6442 White 27
2 PM Thu 77 80 NE 14 13088 11642 6442 White 27
3 PM Thu 79 81 NE 14 13291 13291 8091 White 28
4 PM Thu 78 78 NE 14 12683 11107 5907 White 25
5 PM Thu 75 74 N 16 10900 10115 4915 Blue 21
6 PM Thu 72 70 N 16 9930 9158 3958 Blue 17
7 PM Thu 67 65 N 16 8269 7097 1897 Blue 12
8 PM Thu 64 62 NE 14 7136 5947 747 Blue 9
9 PM Thu 62 60 NE 14 6367 5243 43 Blue 7
10 PM Thu 62 60 NE 14 6367 5243 43 Blue 7
11 PM Thu 62 60 NE 14 6367 5243 43 Blue 7
12 Midnight Fri 62 60 NE 14 6367 5243 43 Blue 7
1 AM Fri 62 60 NE 14 6367 5243 43 Blue 7
2 AM Fri 62 60 N 22 6367 5243 43 Blue 7
3 AM Fri 62 60 N 22 6367 5243 43 Blue 7
4 AM Fri 62 60 N 22 6367 5243 43 Blue 7

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst