Detailed Predictions for: Crestline
Launch Altitude (f): 5200
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

17 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 51 49 N 13 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 52 50 N 13 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 51 49 N 14 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 52 50 N 14 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 52 50 N 14 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 57 55 N 14 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 59 58 N 12 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 60 60 N 10 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 62 62 N 10 3573 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 63 63 N 10 3876 5200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 62 61 N 9 3269 5200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 62 60 N 9 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 59 57 N 10 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 56 54 N 10 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 54 52 N 10 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 54 52 N 9 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 53 51 NE 8 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 52 50 NE 7 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 53 51 NE 5 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 52 50 NE 5 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 52 50 NE 5 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 53 51 NE 2 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 51 49 N 3 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 51 49 N 3 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 51 49 NE 5 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 52 50 NE 5 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 51 49 NE 3 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 52 50 SE 5 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 52 50 SE 5 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 57 55 SE 6 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 58 57 S 6 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 60 60 S 7 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 61 61 S 7 3269 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 62 61 S 9 3269 5200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 61 60 S 9 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 60 58 S 9 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 57 55 S 9 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 52 50 S 8 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 50 48 S 7 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 50 48 S 6 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 48 46 SE 6 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 48 46 SE 7 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 49 47 S 8 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 47 45 S 8 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 47 45 S 8 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 48 46 S 8 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 46 44 S 8 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 46 44 S 8 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 46 44 S 9 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 46 44 SE 10 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 46 44 SE 10 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 46 44 S 12 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 46 44 S 13 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 46 44 S 12 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 47 45 S 12 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 47 46 S 12 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 47 46 S 12 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 46 45 SW 15 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 46 44 SW 15 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 46 44 SW 14 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 44 42 SW 15 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 40 38 SW 15 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 39 37 SW 14 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 39 37 W 13 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 38 36 W 13 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 37 35 W 14 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 38 36 W 15 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 37 35 NW 16 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 37 35 NW 18 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 37 35 NW 20 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 36 34 N 28 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 36 34 N 28 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 36 34 NW 20 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 37 35 NW 20 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 36 34 NW 20 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 37 35 N 23 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 37 35 N 23 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 40 39 N 23 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 41 40 N 15 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 42 42 N 15 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 44 44 N 15 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 44 44 N 15 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 44 43 N 15 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 43 41 N 15 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 42 40 NW 13 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 40 38 NW 13 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 39 37 NW 13 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 39 37 N 17 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 38 36 N 17 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 38 36 N 17 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 38 36 N 14 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 38 36 N 14 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 37 35 N 14 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 38 36 N 13 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 37 35 N 13 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 37 35 N 13 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 37 35 N 7 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 38 36 N 7 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 37 35 N 7 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 38 36 NE 6 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 38 36 NE 6 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 43 41 NE 6 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 45 44 SE 5 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 46 45 SE 5 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 48 48 SE 5 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 49 48 S 6 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 49 48 S 6 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 48 46 S 6 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 47 45 SW 5 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 44 42 SW 5 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 43 41 SW 5 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 43 41 SW 3 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 42 40 SW 3 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 42 40 SW 3 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 43 41 SE 1 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 42 40 SE 1 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 42 40 SE 1 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 42 40 SE 1 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 41 39 SE 1 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 41 39 SE 1 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 41 39 N 3 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 42 40 N 3 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 41 39 N 3 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 42 40 N 10 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 42 40 N 10 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 48 46 N 10 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 50 49 NW 8 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 51 50 NW 8 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 53 53 NW 8 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 54 53 W 10 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 54 53 W 10 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 53 51 W 10 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 51 49 W 8 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 48 46 W 8 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 47 45 W 8 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 47 45 NW 13 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 45 43 NW 13 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 45 43 NW 13 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 46 44 NW 9 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 45 43 NW 9 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 45 43 NW 9 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 45 43 NW 13 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 44 42 NW 13 2979 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 44 42 NW 13 2979 5200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst