Detailed Predictions for: Henninger Flats
Launch Altitude (f): 3427
LZ Altitude (f): 1033
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Thu 61 61 SW 0 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 61 61 SW 0 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 59 59 SW 0 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 59 59 SW 1 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 61 61 SW 1 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 64 64 SW 1 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 67 68 S 6 2184 3427 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 69 71 S 6 3054 3427 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Thu 71 73 S 6 3415 3427 0 Blue 4
1 PM Thu 71 73 S 12 3415 3427 0 Blue 4
2 PM Thu 71 72 S 12 3234 3427 0 Blue 3
3 PM Thu 70 70 S 12 2873 3427 0 Blue 1
4 PM Thu 69 69 S 12 2300 3427 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 67 67 S 12 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 65 65 S 12 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 64 64 S 3 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 62 62 S 3 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 62 62 S 3 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 61 61 S 2 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 61 61 S 2 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 60 60 S 2 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 60 60 S 1 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 59 59 S 1 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 58 58 S 1 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 58 58 S 2 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 57 57 S 2 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 56 56 S 2 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 56 56 S 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 56 56 S 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 57 57 S 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 57 58 SW 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 57 58 SW 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 56 57 SW 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 55 56 W 9 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 54 55 W 9 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 53 53 W 9 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 53 53 W 16 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 52 52 W 16 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 51 51 W 16 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 50 50 W 16 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 50 50 W 16 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 50 50 W 16 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 49 49 NW 14 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 48 48 NW 14 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 46 46 NW 14 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 44 44 NW 14 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 42 42 NW 14 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 41 41 NW 14 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 40 40 NW 14 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 40 40 NW 14 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 39 39 NW 14 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 39 39 NW 14 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 41 41 NW 14 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 43 43 NW 14 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 46 47 W 10 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 49 51 W 10 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 52 54 W 10 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 53 55 W 10 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 54 55 W 10 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 54 54 W 10 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 52 52 W 10 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 49 49 W 10 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 46 46 W 10 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 43 43 W 10 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 41 41 W 10 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 40 40 W 10 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 39 39 N 10 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 39 39 N 10 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 39 39 N 10 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 39 39 N 10 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 40 40 N 10 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 40 40 N 10 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 40 40 NE 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 40 40 NE 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 40 40 NE 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 40 40 NE 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 43 43 NE 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 46 46 NE 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 49 50 SW 3 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 52 53 SW 3 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 54 56 SW 3 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 55 56 SW 3 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 56 57 SW 3 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 56 56 SW 3 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 56 56 SW 3 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 55 55 SW 3 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 53 53 SW 3 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 51 51 SW 3 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 50 50 SW 3 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 48 48 SW 3 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 46 46 N 3 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 44 44 N 3 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 43 43 N 3 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 42 42 N 3 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 42 42 N 3 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 42 42 N 3 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 43 43 N 3 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 44 44 N 3 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 46 46 N 3 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 48 48 N 3 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 51 51 N 3 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 53 53 N 3 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 55 56 W 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 58 59 W 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 59 60 W 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 61 62 W 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 62 63 W 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 62 62 W 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 62 62 W 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 60 60 W 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 58 58 W 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 56 56 W 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 54 54 W 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 51 51 W 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 49 49 N 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 47 47 N 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 46 46 N 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 45 45 N 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 45 45 N 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 45 45 N 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 46 46 N 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 48 48 N 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 50 50 N 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 52 52 N 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 55 55 N 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 57 57 N 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 60 61 W 0 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 62 64 W 0 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 63 65 W 0 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 64 66 W 0 1989 3427 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 65 66 W 0 1989 3427 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 65 65 W 0 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 64 64 W 0 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 63 63 W 0 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 61 61 W 0 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 59 59 W 0 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 57 57 W 0 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 55 55 W 0 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 53 53 N 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 51 51 N 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 50 50 N 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 49 49 N 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 49 49 N 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 49 49 N 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst