Detailed Predictions for: Henninger Flats
Launch Altitude (f): 3427
LZ Altitude (f): 1033
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

24 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 69 69 SE 7 1759 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 68 68 SE 7 1759 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 68 68 SE 7 1759 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 71 71 SE 7 1814 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 71 73 SE 7 2018 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 73 77 SE 7 2508 3427 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 77 83 S 5 3995 3427 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Sat 80 87 S 5 5187 4115 688 Blue 11
1 PM Sat 82 90 S 5 6525 5144 1717 Blue 14
2 PM Sat 85 92 S 8 6966 6070 2643 Blue 16
3 PM Sat 86 92 S 8 6966 6070 2643 Blue 16
4 PM Sat 85 89 S 8 6125 4582 1155 Blue 13
5 PM Sat 83 85 S 8 4416 3862 435 Blue 9
6 PM Sat 81 81 S 8 3565 3427 0 Blue 5
7 PM Sat 78 78 S 8 2784 3427 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 75 75 S 8 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 75 75 S 8 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 75 75 S 8 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 74 74 NE 1 2119 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 73 73 NE 1 2018 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 74 74 NE 1 2119 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 72 72 NE 1 1916 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 72 72 NE 1 1916 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 71 71 NE 1 1814 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 71 71 S 2 1814 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 70 70 S 2 1759 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 70 70 S 2 1759 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 73 73 E 1 2018 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 73 75 E 1 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 76 80 E 1 3385 3427 0 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 80 86 SW 8 4595 3988 561 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 83 90 SW 8 6525 5144 1717 Blue 14
1 PM Sun 85 92 SW 8 6966 6070 2643 Blue 16
2 PM Sun 88 95 W 13 7764 6933 3506 Blue 19
3 PM Sun 89 95 W 13 7764 6933 3506 Blue 19
4 PM Sun 88 92 W 13 6966 6070 2643 Blue 16
5 PM Sun 86 88 W 13 5661 4404 977 Blue 12
6 PM Sun 83 83 W 13 3995 3427 0 Blue 7
7 PM Sun 80 80 W 13 3385 3427 0 Blue 4
8 PM Sun 77 77 S 0 2508 3427 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sun 77 77 S 0 2508 3427 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 77 77 S 0 2508 3427 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sun 76 76 S 1 2322 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 74 74 S 1 2119 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 75 75 S 1 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 74 74 S 1 2119 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 73 73 S 1 2018 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 72 72 S 1 1916 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 72 72 S 1 1916 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 71 71 S 1 1814 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 71 71 S 1 1814 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 74 74 S 1 2119 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 74 75 S 1 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 76 79 S 1 3090 3427 0 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 80 84 S 7 4123 3558 131 Blue 8
12 Noon Mon 83 88 S 7 5661 4404 977 Blue 12
1 PM Mon 84 89 S 7 6125 4582 1155 Blue 13
2 PM Mon 87 92 S 7 6966 6070 2643 Blue 16
3 PM Mon 88 92 S 7 6966 6070 2643 Blue 16
4 PM Mon 87 89 S 7 6125 4582 1155 Blue 13
5 PM Mon 85 86 S 7 4595 3988 561 Blue 10
6 PM Mon 82 82 S 7 3868 3427 0 Blue 6
7 PM Mon 79 79 S 7 3090 3427 0 Blue 3
8 PM Mon 77 77 S 7 2508 3427 0 Blue 1
9 PM Mon 77 77 S 7 2508 3427 0 Blue 1
10 PM Mon 76 76 S 7 2322 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 75 75 N 2 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 74 74 N 2 2119 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 75 75 N 2 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 74 74 N 2 2119 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 73 73 N 2 2018 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 72 72 N 2 1916 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 72 72 N 2 1916 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 71 71 N 2 1814 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 71 71 N 2 1814 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 74 74 N 2 2119 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 74 76 N 2 2322 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 76 80 N 2 3385 3427 0 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 80 86 S 8 4595 3988 561 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 83 90 S 8 6525 5144 1717 Blue 14
1 PM Tue 84 92 S 8 6966 6070 2643 Blue 16
2 PM Tue 87 94 S 8 7482 6715 3288 Blue 18
3 PM Tue 88 94 S 8 7482 6715 3288 Blue 18
4 PM Tue 87 91 S 8 6746 5612 2185 Blue 15
5 PM Tue 85 87 S 8 5187 4115 688 Blue 11
6 PM Tue 82 82 S 8 3868 3427 0 Blue 6
7 PM Tue 79 79 S 8 3090 3427 0 Blue 3
8 PM Tue 76 76 S 8 2322 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 76 76 S 8 2322 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 76 76 S 8 2322 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 75 75 S 5 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 73 73 S 5 2018 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 74 74 S 5 2119 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 73 73 S 5 2018 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 72 72 S 5 1916 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 71 71 S 5 1814 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 71 71 S 5 1814 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 70 70 S 5 1759 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 70 70 S 5 1759 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 73 73 S 5 2018 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 73 75 S 5 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 75 79 S 5 3090 3427 0 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 79 85 S 10 4416 3862 435 Blue 9
12 Noon Wed 82 89 S 10 6125 4582 1155 Blue 13
1 PM Wed 83 91 S 10 6746 5612 2185 Blue 15
2 PM Wed 86 93 S 10 7198 6495 3068 Blue 17
3 PM Wed 87 93 S 10 7198 6495 3068 Blue 17
4 PM Wed 86 90 S 10 6525 5144 1717 Blue 14
5 PM Wed 84 86 S 10 4595 3988 561 Blue 10
6 PM Wed 81 81 S 10 3565 3427 0 Blue 5
7 PM Wed 78 78 S 10 2784 3427 0 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 75 75 S 10 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 75 75 S 10 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 75 75 S 10 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 74 74 S 6 2119 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 72 72 S 6 1916 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 73 73 S 6 2018 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 72 72 S 6 1916 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 71 71 S 6 1814 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 70 70 S 6 1759 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 70 70 S 6 1759 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 69 69 S 6 1759 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 69 69 S 6 1759 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 72 72 S 6 1916 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 72 74 S 6 2119 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 75 79 S 6 3090 3427 0 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 79 85 SW 10 4416 3862 435 Blue 9
12 Noon Thu 82 89 SW 10 6125 4582 1155 Blue 13
1 PM Thu 84 92 SW 10 6966 6070 2643 Blue 16
2 PM Thu 87 94 SW 10 7482 6715 3288 Blue 18
3 PM Thu 88 94 SW 10 7482 6715 3288 Blue 18
4 PM Thu 87 91 SW 10 6746 5612 2185 Blue 15
5 PM Thu 85 87 SW 10 5187 4115 688 Blue 11
6 PM Thu 83 83 SW 10 3995 3427 0 Blue 7
7 PM Thu 80 80 SW 10 3385 3427 0 Blue 4
8 PM Thu 77 77 SW 10 2508 3427 0 Blue 1
9 PM Thu 77 77 SW 10 2508 3427 0 Blue 1
10 PM Thu 77 77 SW 10 2508 3427 0 Blue 1
11 PM Thu 76 76 SE 3 2322 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 75 75 SE 3 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 76 76 SE 3 2322 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 74 74 SE 3 2119 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 74 74 SE 3 2119 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 73 73 SE 3 2018 3427 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst