Detailed Predictions for: Henninger Flats
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.1898, -118.0876, 3427
LZ Altitude (f): 1033
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

16 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 65 65 ESE 1 2 2604 3427 0 Blue 12
1 AM Thu 64 64 ESE 1 2 2594 3427 0 Blue 11
2 AM Thu 64 64 ESE 1 2 2594 3427 0 Blue 11
3 AM Thu 64 64 ESE 1 2 2594 3427 0 Blue 11
4 AM Thu 63 63 E 1 2 2584 3427 0 Blue 10
5 AM Thu 63 63 ENE 1 2 2584 3427 0 Blue 10
6 AM Thu 63 63 ENE 1 2 2584 3427 0 Blue 10
7 AM Thu 63 63 E 1 2 2584 3427 0 Blue 10
8 AM Thu 67 67 SSE 2 2 2625 3427 0 Blue 14
9 AM Thu 71 73 S 4 4 2800 3427 0 Blue 20
10 AM Thu 74 77 SSW 5 6 3554 3427 0 Blue 24
11 AM Thu 76 81 SSW 6 7 4610 3809 382 Blue 28
12 Noon Thu 75 81 SSW 7 8 4610 3809 382 Blue 28
1 PM Thu 74 81 SSW 8 11 4610 3809 382 Blue 28
2 PM Thu 74 80 SSW 8 12 4348 3545 118 Blue 27
3 PM Thu 73 78 SSW 8 12 3820 3427 0 Blue 25
4 PM Thu 73 76 SSW 7 11 3287 3427 0 Blue 23
5 PM Thu 72 73 SSW 6 10 2800 3427 0 Blue 20
6 PM Thu 71 71 SSW 5 7 2698 3427 0 Blue 18
7 PM Thu 66 66 S 3 5 2615 3427 0 Blue 13
8 PM Thu 59 59 SE 1 3 2544 3427 0 Blue 6
9 PM Thu 59 59 ESE 2 4 2544 3427 0 Blue 6
10 PM Thu 58 58 ESE 2 5 2533 3427 0 Blue 5
11 PM Thu 60 60 ESE 2 4 2554 3427 0 Blue 7
12 Midnight Fri 64 64 ESE 2 3 2594 3427 0 Blue 11
1 AM Fri 64 64 ESE 2 3 2594 3427 0 Blue 11
2 AM Fri 64 64 ESE 1 2 2594 3427 0 Blue 11
3 AM Fri 63 63 E 1 2 2584 3427 0 Blue 10
4 AM Fri 63 63 E 1 2 2584 3427 0 Blue 10
5 AM Fri 63 63 E 1 3 2584 3427 0 Blue 10
6 AM Fri 63 63 E 2 4 2584 3427 0 Blue 10
7 AM Fri 63 63 E 1 2 2584 3427 0 Blue 10
8 AM Fri 68 68 SE 2 2 2635 3427 0 Blue 15
9 AM Fri 72 74 S 4 5 2896 3427 0 Blue 21
10 AM Fri 74 77 SSW 5 6 3554 3427 0 Blue 24
11 AM Fri 74 79 SSW 6 7 4085 3427 0 Blue 26
12 Noon Fri 73 79 SSW 7 9 4085 3427 0 Blue 26
1 PM Fri 73 80 SSW 8 12 4348 3545 118 Blue 27
2 PM Fri 73 79 SSW 8 13 4085 3427 0 Blue 26
3 PM Fri 73 78 SSW 8 12 3820 3427 0 Blue 25
4 PM Fri 73 76 SSW 7 11 3287 3427 0 Blue 23
5 PM Fri 72 73 SSW 6 10 2800 3427 0 Blue 20
6 PM Fri 71 71 SSW 6 8 2698 3427 0 Blue 18
7 PM Fri 67 67 S 3 6 2625 3427 0 Blue 14
8 PM Fri 60 60 SSE 2 4 2554 3427 0 Blue 7
9 PM Fri 59 59 ESE 2 4 2544 3427 0 Blue 6
10 PM Fri 59 59 ESE 2 4 2544 3427 0 Blue 6
11 PM Fri 62 62 SE 2 4 2574 3427 0 Blue 9
12 Midnight Sat 65 65 ESE 1 2 2604 3427 0 Blue 12
1 AM Sat 64 64 ESE 1 2 2594 3427 0 Blue 11
2 AM Sat 64 64 E 1 3 2594 3427 0 Blue 11
3 AM Sat 64 64 E 1 2 2594 3427 0 Blue 11
4 AM Sat 64 64 ESE 1 2 2594 3427 0 Blue 11
5 AM Sat 63 63 ENE 1 2 2584 3427 0 Blue 10
6 AM Sat 63 63 ENE 1 2 2584 3427 0 Blue 10
7 AM Sat 63 63 E 1 2 2584 3427 0 Blue 10
8 AM Sat 68 68 SE 2 2 2635 3427 0 Blue 15
9 AM Sat 71 72 S 4 5 2721 3427 0 Blue 19
10 AM Sat 72 75 SSW 5 6 3019 3427 0 Blue 22
11 AM Sat 71 76 SSW 6 9 3287 3427 0 Blue 23
12 Noon Sat 72 78 SSW 7 10 3820 3427 0 Blue 25
1 PM Sat 75 82 SSW 7 9 4871 4071 644 Blue 29
2 PM Sat 76 82 SSW 8 10 4871 4071 644 Blue 29
3 PM Sat 73 78 SSW 8 13 3820 3427 0 Blue 25
4 PM Sat 73 76 SSW 7 12 3287 3427 0 Blue 23
5 PM Sat 73 74 SSW 6 9 2896 3427 0 Blue 21
6 PM Sat 71 71 SSW 5 8 2698 3427 0 Blue 18
7 PM Sat 66 66 SSW 3 6 2615 3427 0 Blue 13
8 PM Sat 59 59 S 0 1 2544 3427 0 Blue 6
9 PM Sat 58 58 ENE 0 1 2533 3427 0 Blue 5
10 PM Sat 58 58 E 0 1 2533 3427 0 Blue 5
11 PM Sat 62 62 ENE 1 2 2574 3427 0 Blue 9

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst