Detailed Predictions for: Henninger Flats
Launch Altitude (f): 3427
LZ Altitude (f): 1033
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

14 JUN 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 57 57 SW 3 2572 3427 0 Blue 4
6 AM Fri 58 58 SW 3 2586 3427 0 Blue 5
7 AM Fri 59 59 SW 3 2601 3427 0 Blue 6
8 AM Fri 62 62 W 3 2644 3427 0 Blue 9
9 AM Fri 62 63 W 3 2659 3427 0 Blue 10
10 AM Fri 64 66 W 3 2752 3427 0 Blue 13
11 AM Fri 67 74 SW 7 4059 3708 281 Blue 21
12 Noon Fri 68 76 SW 7 4312 3951 524 Blue 23
1 PM Fri 69 78 SW 7 4528 4161 734 Blue 25
2 PM Fri 71 79 SW 7 4622 4303 876 Blue 26
3 PM Fri 71 78 SW 7 4528 4161 734 Blue 25
4 PM Fri 70 75 SW 7 4170 3849 422 Blue 22
5 PM Fri 69 72 SW 6 3854 3427 0 Blue 19
6 PM Fri 67 68 SW 6 3126 3427 0 Blue 15
7 PM Fri 64 64 SW 6 2673 3427 0 Blue 11
8 PM Fri 63 63 S 6 2659 3427 0 Blue 10
9 PM Fri 62 62 S 6 2644 3427 0 Blue 9
10 PM Fri 60 60 S 6 2615 3427 0 Blue 7
11 PM Fri 58 58 S 2 2586 3427 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sat 59 59 S 2 2601 3427 0 Blue 6
1 AM Sat 58 58 S 2 2586 3427 0 Blue 5
2 AM Sat 58 58 SE 2 2586 3427 0 Blue 5
3 AM Sat 57 57 SE 2 2572 3427 0 Blue 4
4 AM Sat 56 56 SE 2 2557 3427 0 Blue 3
5 AM Sat 57 57 SW 2 2572 3427 0 Blue 4
6 AM Sat 57 57 SW 2 2572 3427 0 Blue 4
7 AM Sat 58 58 SW 2 2586 3427 0 Blue 5
8 AM Sat 62 63 SW 2 2659 3427 0 Blue 10
9 AM Sat 63 66 SW 2 2752 3427 0 Blue 13
10 AM Sat 65 70 SW 2 3521 3427 0 Blue 17
11 AM Sat 68 75 SW 7 4170 3849 422 Blue 22
12 Noon Sat 70 78 SW 7 4528 4161 734 Blue 25
1 PM Sat 72 81 SW 7 4878 4521 1094 Blue 28
2 PM Sat 74 82 SW 8 5072 4615 1188 Blue 29
3 PM Sat 74 81 SW 8 4878 4521 1094 Blue 28
4 PM Sat 73 78 SW 8 4528 4161 734 Blue 25
5 PM Sat 72 75 SW 7 4170 3849 422 Blue 22
6 PM Sat 70 71 SW 7 3717 3427 0 Blue 18
7 PM Sat 67 67 SW 7 2933 3427 0 Blue 14
8 PM Sat 65 65 SW 7 2701 3427 0 Blue 12
9 PM Sat 64 64 SW 7 2673 3427 0 Blue 11
10 PM Sat 62 62 SW 7 2644 3427 0 Blue 9
11 PM Sat 60 60 S 2 2615 3427 0 Blue 7
12 Midnight Sun 61 61 S 2 2630 3427 0 Blue 8
1 AM Sun 60 60 S 2 2615 3427 0 Blue 7
2 AM Sun 60 60 S 2 2615 3427 0 Blue 7
3 AM Sun 59 59 S 2 2601 3427 0 Blue 6
4 AM Sun 58 58 S 2 2586 3427 0 Blue 5
5 AM Sun 58 58 S 5 2586 3427 0 Blue 5
6 AM Sun 59 59 S 5 2601 3427 0 Blue 6
7 AM Sun 60 60 S 5 2615 3427 0 Blue 7
8 AM Sun 63 64 S 5 2673 3427 0 Blue 11
9 AM Sun 64 67 S 5 2933 3427 0 Blue 14
10 AM Sun 66 71 S 5 3717 3427 0 Blue 18
11 AM Sun 69 76 SW 7 4312 3951 524 Blue 23
12 Noon Sun 71 79 SW 7 4622 4303 876 Blue 26
1 PM Sun 72 81 SW 7 4878 4521 1094 Blue 28
2 PM Sun 74 82 SW 7 5072 4615 1188 Blue 29
3 PM Sun 74 81 SW 7 4878 4521 1094 Blue 28
4 PM Sun 73 78 SW 7 4528 4161 734 Blue 25
5 PM Sun 72 75 SW 8 4170 3849 422 Blue 22
6 PM Sun 70 71 SW 8 3717 3427 0 Blue 18
7 PM Sun 67 67 SW 8 2933 3427 0 Blue 14
8 PM Sun 65 65 SW 8 2701 3427 0 Blue 12
9 PM Sun 64 64 SW 8 2673 3427 0 Blue 11
10 PM Sun 62 62 SW 8 2644 3427 0 Blue 9
11 PM Sun 60 60 S 2 2615 3427 0 Blue 7
12 Midnight Mon 61 61 S 2 2630 3427 0 Blue 8
1 AM Mon 60 60 S 2 2615 3427 0 Blue 7
2 AM Mon 60 60 S 2 2615 3427 0 Blue 7
3 AM Mon 59 59 S 2 2601 3427 0 Blue 6
4 AM Mon 58 58 S 2 2586 3427 0 Blue 5
5 AM Mon 58 58 S 2 2586 3427 0 Blue 5
6 AM Mon 59 59 S 2 2601 3427 0 Blue 6
7 AM Mon 60 60 S 2 2615 3427 0 Blue 7
8 AM Mon 63 63 S 2 2659 3427 0 Blue 10
9 AM Mon 64 65 S 2 2701 3427 0 Blue 12
10 AM Mon 66 68 S 2 3126 3427 0 Blue 15
11 AM Mon 69 76 SW 7 4312 3951 524 Blue 23
12 Noon Mon 71 79 SW 7 4622 4303 876 Blue 26
1 PM Mon 72 80 SW 7 4733 4427 1000 Blue 27
2 PM Mon 74 82 SW 7 5072 4615 1188 Blue 29
3 PM Mon 74 80 SW 7 4733 4427 1000 Blue 27
4 PM Mon 73 77 SW 7 4434 4053 626 Blue 24
5 PM Mon 72 74 SW 7 4059 3708 281 Blue 21
6 PM Mon 70 71 SW 7 3717 3427 0 Blue 18
7 PM Mon 67 67 SW 7 2933 3427 0 Blue 14
8 PM Mon 65 65 SW 7 2701 3427 0 Blue 12
9 PM Mon 64 64 SW 7 2673 3427 0 Blue 11
10 PM Mon 62 62 SW 7 2644 3427 0 Blue 9
11 PM Mon 60 60 SW 3 2615 3427 0 Blue 7
12 Midnight Tue 61 61 SW 3 2630 3427 0 Blue 8
1 AM Tue 60 60 SW 3 2615 3427 0 Blue 7
2 AM Tue 60 60 SW 3 2615 3427 0 Blue 7
3 AM Tue 59 59 SW 3 2601 3427 0 Blue 6
4 AM Tue 58 58 SW 3 2586 3427 0 Blue 5
5 AM Tue 59 59 SW 3 2601 3427 0 Blue 6
6 AM Tue 59 59 SW 3 2601 3427 0 Blue 6
7 AM Tue 60 60 SW 3 2615 3427 0 Blue 7
8 AM Tue 64 65 SW 3 2701 3427 0 Blue 12
9 AM Tue 65 68 SW 3 3126 3427 0 Blue 15
10 AM Tue 68 73 SW 3 3956 3513 86 Blue 20
11 AM Tue 71 78 SW 7 4528 4161 734 Blue 25
12 Noon Tue 73 81 SW 7 4878 4521 1094 Blue 28
1 PM Tue 75 83 SW 7 5426 4721 1294 Blue 30
2 PM Tue 77 85 SW 7 6239 5040 1613 Blue 32
3 PM Tue 77 83 SW 7 5426 4721 1294 Blue 30
4 PM Tue 76 80 SW 7 4733 4427 1000 Blue 27
5 PM Tue 75 77 SW 7 4434 4053 626 Blue 24
6 PM Tue 73 74 SW 7 4059 3708 281 Blue 21
7 PM Tue 70 70 SW 7 3521 3427 0 Blue 17
8 PM Tue 68 68 SW 7 3126 3427 0 Blue 15
9 PM Tue 67 67 SW 7 2933 3427 0 Blue 14
10 PM Tue 65 65 SW 7 2701 3427 0 Blue 12
11 PM Tue 63 63 SW 5 2659 3427 0 Blue 10
12 Midnight Wed 64 64 SW 5 2673 3427 0 Blue 11
1 AM Wed 63 63 SW 5 2659 3427 0 Blue 10
2 AM Wed 63 63 SW 5 2659 3427 0 Blue 10
3 AM Wed 62 62 SW 5 2644 3427 0 Blue 9
4 AM Wed 61 61 SW 5 2630 3427 0 Blue 8
5 AM Wed 61 61 SW 6 2630 3427 0 Blue 8
6 AM Wed 62 62 SW 6 2644 3427 0 Blue 9
7 AM Wed 63 63 SW 6 2659 3427 0 Blue 10
8 AM Wed 67 68 SW 6 3126 3427 0 Blue 15
9 AM Wed 68 71 SW 6 3717 3427 0 Blue 18
10 AM Wed 70 75 SW 6 4170 3849 422 Blue 22
11 AM Wed 73 80 SW 7 4733 4427 1000 Blue 27
12 Noon Wed 74 82 SW 7 5072 4615 1188 Blue 29
1 PM Wed 76 84 SW 7 5821 4866 1439 Blue 31
2 PM Wed 78 86 SW 7 6664 5391 1964 Blue 33
3 PM Wed 78 84 SW 7 5821 4866 1439 Blue 31
4 PM Wed 77 81 SW 7 4878 4521 1094 Blue 28
5 PM Wed 76 78 SW 7 4528 4161 734 Blue 25
6 PM Wed 74 75 SW 7 4170 3849 422 Blue 22
7 PM Wed 71 71 SW 7 3717 3427 0 Blue 18
8 PM Wed 69 69 SW 7 3324 3427 0 Blue 16
9 PM Wed 68 68 SW 7 3126 3427 0 Blue 15
10 PM Wed 66 66 SW 7 2752 3427 0 Blue 13
11 PM Wed 64 64 SW 6 2673 3427 0 Blue 11
12 Midnight Thu 65 65 SW 6 2701 3427 0 Blue 12
1 AM Thu 64 64 SW 6 2673 3427 0 Blue 11
2 AM Thu 64 64 SW 6 2673 3427 0 Blue 11
3 AM Thu 63 63 SW 6 2659 3427 0 Blue 10
4 AM Thu 62 62 SW 6 2644 3427 0 Blue 9

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst