Detailed Predictions for: Henninger Flats
Launch Altitude (f): 3427
LZ Altitude (f): 1033
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

17 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 59 59 W 3 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 58 58 W 3 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 58 58 W 3 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 58 58 SW 5 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 59 59 SW 5 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 61 61 SW 5 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 63 64 SW 6 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 65 66 SW 6 2108 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 66 68 SW 6 3072 3427 0 Blue 1
1 PM Fri 66 67 SW 8 2540 3427 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 66 67 SW 8 2540 3427 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 65 65 SW 8 1670 3427 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 63 63 SW 7 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 62 62 SW 7 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 60 60 SW 7 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 59 59 SW 7 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 58 58 SW 7 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 57 57 SW 7 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 56 56 NE 9 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 55 55 NE 9 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 53 53 NE 9 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 52 52 NE 9 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 51 51 NE 9 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 50 50 NE 9 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 49 49 NE 9 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 48 48 NE 9 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 48 48 NE 9 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 49 49 NE 9 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 53 53 NE 9 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 58 59 NE 9 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 63 65 NE 9 1670 3427 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 67 69 NE 9 3615 3427 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sat 70 73 NE 9 5734 4111 684 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 71 73 NE 9 5734 4111 684 Blue 6
2 PM Sat 71 72 NE 9 5189 3592 165 Blue 5
3 PM Sat 70 70 NE 9 4142 3427 0 Blue 3
4 PM Sat 68 68 N 1 3072 3427 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sat 64 64 N 1 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 60 60 N 1 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 55 55 N 1 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 51 51 N 1 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 48 48 N 1 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 46 46 NE 3 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 46 46 NE 3 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 48 48 NE 3 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 49 49 NE 3 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 50 50 NE 3 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 50 50 NE 3 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 49 49 N 2 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 48 48 N 2 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 47 47 N 2 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 48 48 N 2 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 52 52 N 2 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 58 59 N 2 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 64 66 SW 2 2108 3427 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 68 70 SW 2 4142 3427 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Sun 71 73 SW 2 5734 4111 684 Blue 6
1 PM Sun 72 74 SW 2 6265 4619 1192 Blue 7
2 PM Sun 72 73 SW 2 5734 4111 684 Blue 6
3 PM Sun 71 71 SW 2 4676 3427 0 Blue 4
4 PM Sun 69 69 SW 3 3615 3427 0 Blue 2
5 PM Sun 65 65 SW 3 1670 3427 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 61 61 SW 3 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 58 58 SW 3 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 56 56 SW 3 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 56 56 SW 3 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 56 56 NE 3 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 56 56 NE 3 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 56 56 NE 3 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 56 56 NE 3 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 56 56 NE 3 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 56 56 NE 3 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 55 55 NE 3 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 53 53 NE 3 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 52 52 NE 3 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 53 53 NE 3 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 56 56 NE 3 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 61 62 NE 3 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 65 66 SW 5 2108 3427 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 68 70 SW 5 4142 3427 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Mon 69 71 SW 5 4676 3427 0 Blue 4
1 PM Mon 69 71 SW 5 4676 3427 0 Blue 4
2 PM Mon 68 69 SW 5 3615 3427 0 Blue 2
3 PM Mon 67 67 SW 5 2540 3427 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 66 66 SW 5 2108 3427 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 65 65 SW 5 1670 3427 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 64 64 SW 5 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 63 63 SW 5 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 62 62 SW 5 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 61 61 SW 5 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 60 60 NE 3 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 59 59 NE 3 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 58 58 NE 3 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 58 58 NE 3 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 58 58 NE 3 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 58 58 NE 3 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 59 59 N 6 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 61 61 N 6 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 63 63 N 6 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 65 65 N 6 1670 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 68 68 N 6 3072 3427 0 Blue 1
9 AM Tue 70 71 N 6 4676 3427 0 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 72 73 W 7 5734 4111 684 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 73 75 W 7 6616 5131 1704 Blue 8
12 Noon Tue 74 76 W 7 6909 5691 2264 Blue 9
1 PM Tue 75 77 W 7 7298 6172 2745 Blue 10
2 PM Tue 75 76 W 7 6909 5691 2264 Blue 9
3 PM Tue 75 75 W 7 6616 5131 1704 Blue 8
4 PM Tue 74 74 W 7 6265 4619 1192 Blue 7
5 PM Tue 73 73 W 7 5734 4111 684 Blue 6
6 PM Tue 71 71 W 7 4676 3427 0 Blue 4
7 PM Tue 69 69 W 7 3615 3427 0 Blue 2
8 PM Tue 67 67 W 7 2540 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 65 65 W 7 1670 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 63 63 N 6 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 61 61 N 6 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 60 60 N 6 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 58 58 N 6 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 58 58 N 6 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 58 58 N 6 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 59 59 N 7 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 61 61 N 7 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 64 64 N 7 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 67 67 N 7 2540 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 70 70 N 7 4142 3427 0 Blue 3
9 AM Wed 73 74 N 7 6265 4619 1192 Blue 7
10 AM Wed 75 77 NW 6 7298 6172 2745 Blue 10
11 AM Wed 77 79 NW 6 8060 6851 3424 Blue 12
12 Noon Wed 78 80 NW 6 8410 7236 3809 Blue 13
1 PM Wed 78 80 NW 6 8410 7236 3809 Blue 13
2 PM Wed 78 79 NW 6 8060 6851 3424 Blue 12
3 PM Wed 77 77 NW 6 7298 6172 2745 Blue 10
4 PM Wed 76 76 NW 6 6909 5691 2264 Blue 9
5 PM Wed 74 74 NW 6 6265 4619 1192 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 72 72 NW 6 5189 3592 165 Blue 5
7 PM Wed 70 70 NW 6 4142 3427 0 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 68 68 NW 6 3072 3427 0 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 66 66 NW 6 2108 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 63 63 N 7 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 61 61 N 7 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 60 60 N 7 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 59 59 N 7 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 58 58 N 7 1555 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 58 58 N 7 1555 3427 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst