Detailed Predictions for: Henninger Flats
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.1898, -118.0876, 3427
LZ Altitude (f): 1033
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Fri 55 55 NNE 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 54 54 NNE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 55 55 NNE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 55 55 NNE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 55 55 NNE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 57 57 NNE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 56 56 NNE 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 56 56 NNE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 57 58 NE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 58 60 E 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 59 62 SSE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 60 64 SSW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 62 67 SW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 63 67 SW 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 64 67 SW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 64 66 SW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 63 64 SW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 63 63 SW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 61 61 WSW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 59 59 W 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 57 57 NNE 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 57 57 S 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 56 56 E 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 54 54 NNE 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 57 57 N 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 58 58 N 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 61 61 NNE 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 59 59 N 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 58 58 N 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 58 58 N 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 56 56 N 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 56 56 N 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 55 56 N 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 57 59 E 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 59 62 S 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 60 64 WNW 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 61 66 WNW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 63 67 WNW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 63 66 NNW 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 64 66 NW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 64 65 NW 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 64 64 NNW 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 64 64 SW 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 63 63 ESE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 56 56 NNE 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 59 59 NNE 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 56 56 NNE 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 51 51 NNE 7 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 53 53 NNE 7 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 52 52 NNE 7 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 53 53 NNE 7 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 51 51 NNE 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 50 50 NNE 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 50 50 NNE 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 48 48 NNE 11 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 48 48 NNE 11 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 49 50 NNE 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 49 51 NNE 10 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 49 52 NNE 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 57 61 NNE 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 51 56 NNE 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 53 57 NNE 9 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 68 71 N 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 55 57 NNE 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 55 56 NNE 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 66 66 N 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 53 53 NNE 7 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 50 50 NNE 7 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 59 59 NNE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 48 48 NNE 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 47 47 NNE 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 53 53 NE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst