Detailed Predictions for: Henninger Flats
Launch Altitude (f): 3427
LZ Altitude (f): 1033
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

16 OCT 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 55 55 NE 21 1437 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 55 55 NE 21 1437 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 54 54 NE 21 1437 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 57 57 NE 17 1437 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 62 63 NE 17 1437 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 66 68 NE 17 5603 3427 0 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 68 71 NE 18 8082 5491 2064 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 73 77 NE 18 9591 8788 5361 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 74 79 NE 18 10084 9284 5857 Blue 15
2 PM Tue 77 81 SE 5 10450 9776 6349 Blue 17
3 PM Tue 76 79 SE 5 10084 9284 5857 Blue 15
4 PM Tue 76 77 SE 5 9591 8788 5361 Blue 13
5 PM Tue 73 73 NE 12 8590 7346 3919 Blue 9
6 PM Tue 67 67 NE 12 4666 3427 0 Blue 3
7 PM Tue 64 64 NE 12 2222 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 63 63 NE 12 1437 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 63 63 NE 12 1437 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 61 61 NE 12 1437 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 60 60 NE 12 1437 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 59 59 NE 12 1437 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 60 60 NE 12 1437 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 59 59 NE 12 1437 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 59 59 NE 12 1437 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 59 59 NE 12 1437 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 58 58 NE 13 1437 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 58 58 NE 13 1437 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 57 57 NE 13 1437 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 60 60 NE 12 1437 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 64 65 NE 12 3142 3427 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 67 69 NE 12 6597 3888 461 Blue 5
11 AM Wed 69 72 NE 8 8337 6467 3040 Blue 8
12 Noon Wed 72 76 NE 8 9343 8538 5111 Blue 12
1 PM Wed 74 78 NE 8 9838 9037 5610 Blue 14
2 PM Wed 76 80 NE 8 10279 9531 6104 Blue 16
3 PM Wed 75 78 NE 8 9838 9037 5610 Blue 14
4 PM Wed 75 76 NE 8 9343 8538 5111 Blue 12
5 PM Wed 73 73 NE 5 8590 7346 3919 Blue 9
6 PM Wed 68 68 NE 5 5603 3427 0 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 66 66 NE 5 3928 3427 0 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 65 65 NE 5 3142 3427 0 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 65 65 NE 5 3142 3427 0 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 63 63 NE 5 1437 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 62 62 NE 7 1437 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 61 61 NE 7 1437 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 63 63 NE 7 1437 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 62 62 NE 7 1437 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 62 62 NE 7 1437 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 61 61 NE 7 1437 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 61 61 NE 9 1437 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 60 60 NE 9 1437 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 60 60 NE 9 1437 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 62 62 NE 9 1437 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 67 68 NE 9 5603 3427 0 Blue 4
10 AM Thu 69 71 NE 9 8082 5491 2064 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 71 74 NE 7 8843 8033 4606 Blue 10
12 Noon Thu 75 79 NE 7 10084 9284 5857 Blue 15
1 PM Thu 76 81 NE 7 10450 9776 6349 Blue 17
2 PM Thu 78 82 NE 7 10620 10020 6593 Blue 18
3 PM Thu 77 80 NE 7 10279 9531 6104 Blue 16
4 PM Thu 77 78 NE 7 9838 9037 5610 Blue 14
5 PM Thu 74 74 NE 5 8843 8033 4606 Blue 10
6 PM Thu 69 69 NE 5 6597 3888 461 Blue 5
7 PM Thu 66 66 NE 5 3928 3427 0 Blue 2
8 PM Thu 65 65 NE 5 3142 3427 0 Blue 1
9 PM Thu 65 65 NE 5 3142 3427 0 Blue 1
10 PM Thu 63 63 NE 5 1437 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 62 62 NE 9 1437 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 61 61 NE 9 1437 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 62 62 NE 9 1437 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 61 61 NE 9 1437 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 61 61 NE 9 1437 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 61 61 NE 9 1437 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 60 60 N 8 1437 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 60 60 N 8 1437 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 59 59 N 8 1437 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 62 62 N 8 1437 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 67 68 N 8 5603 3427 0 Blue 4
10 AM Fri 70 72 N 8 8337 6467 3040 Blue 8
11 AM Fri 73 76 NE 8 9343 8538 5111 Blue 12
12 Noon Fri 77 81 NE 8 10450 9776 6349 Blue 17
1 PM Fri 78 83 NE 8 10791 10234 6807 Blue 19
2 PM Fri 81 85 NE 8 12024 10573 7146 Blue 21
3 PM Fri 80 83 NE 8 10791 10234 6807 Blue 19
4 PM Fri 80 81 NE 8 10450 9776 6349 Blue 17
5 PM Fri 77 77 NE 7 9591 8788 5361 Blue 13
6 PM Fri 72 72 NE 7 8337 6467 3040 Blue 8
7 PM Fri 69 69 NE 7 6597 3888 461 Blue 5
8 PM Fri 68 68 NE 7 5603 3427 0 Blue 4
9 PM Fri 68 68 NE 7 5603 3427 0 Blue 4
10 PM Fri 66 66 NE 7 3928 3427 0 Blue 2
11 PM Fri 65 65 NE 8 3142 3427 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sat 64 64 NE 8 2222 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 65 65 NE 8 3142 3427 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sat 64 64 NE 8 2222 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 64 64 NE 8 2222 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 64 64 NE 8 2222 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 63 63 N 9 1437 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 63 63 N 9 1437 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 62 62 N 9 1437 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 64 64 N 9 2222 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 68 69 N 9 6597 3888 461 Blue 5
10 AM Sat 71 73 N 9 8590 7346 3919 Blue 9
11 AM Sat 73 76 NE 10 9343 8538 5111 Blue 12
12 Noon Sat 76 79 NE 10 10084 9284 5857 Blue 15
1 PM Sat 77 81 NE 10 10450 9776 6349 Blue 17
2 PM Sat 79 82 NE 10 10620 10020 6593 Blue 18
3 PM Sat 78 80 NE 10 10279 9531 6104 Blue 16
4 PM Sat 78 79 NE 10 10084 9284 5857 Blue 15
5 PM Sat 76 76 NE 6 9343 8538 5111 Blue 12
6 PM Sat 73 73 NE 6 8590 7346 3919 Blue 9
7 PM Sat 71 71 NE 6 8082 5491 2064 Blue 7
8 PM Sat 70 70 NE 6 7490 4611 1184 Blue 6
9 PM Sat 70 70 NE 6 7490 4611 1184 Blue 6
10 PM Sat 69 69 NE 6 6597 3888 461 Blue 5
11 PM Sat 68 68 N 6 5603 3427 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sun 67 67 N 6 4666 3427 0 Blue 3
1 AM Sun 68 68 N 6 5603 3427 0 Blue 4
2 AM Sun 68 68 N 6 5603 3427 0 Blue 4
3 AM Sun 67 67 N 6 4666 3427 0 Blue 3
4 AM Sun 67 67 N 6 4666 3427 0 Blue 3
5 AM Sun 66 66 N 7 3928 3427 0 Blue 2
6 AM Sun 66 66 N 7 3928 3427 0 Blue 2
7 AM Sun 66 66 N 7 3928 3427 0 Blue 2
8 AM Sun 67 67 N 7 4666 3427 0 Blue 3
9 AM Sun 70 70 N 7 7490 4611 1184 Blue 6
10 AM Sun 72 73 N 7 8590 7346 3919 Blue 9
11 AM Sun 73 75 NE 2 9093 8286 4859 Blue 11
12 Noon Sun 75 78 NE 2 9838 9037 5610 Blue 14
1 PM Sun 76 79 NE 2 10084 9284 5857 Blue 15
2 PM Sun 77 79 NE 2 10084 9284 5857 Blue 15
3 PM Sun 76 78 NE 2 9838 9037 5610 Blue 14
4 PM Sun 76 77 NE 2 9591 8788 5361 Blue 13
5 PM Sun 74 74 W 2 8843 8033 4606 Blue 10
6 PM Sun 70 70 W 2 7490 4611 1184 Blue 6
7 PM Sun 68 68 W 2 5603 3427 0 Blue 4
8 PM Sun 67 67 W 2 4666 3427 0 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 66 66 W 2 3928 3427 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 65 65 W 2 3142 3427 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sun 64 64 NE 2 2222 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 63 63 NE 2 1437 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 65 65 NE 2 3142 3427 0 Blue 1
2 AM Mon 64 64 NE 2 2222 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 64 64 NE 2 2222 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 63 63 NE 2 1437 3427 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst