Detailed Predictions for: Henninger Flats
Launch Altitude (f): 3427
LZ Altitude (f): 1033
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 AUG 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 66 66 NE 2 2144 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 66 66 NE 2 2144 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 67 67 NE 2 2223 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 71 72 S 1 2499 3427 0 Blue 4
9 AM Sat 73 75 S 1 2747 3427 0 Blue 7
10 AM Sat 77 81 S 1 3340 3427 0 Blue 13
11 AM Sat 83 89 SW 7 5367 4407 980 Blue 21
12 Noon Sat 88 95 SW 7 8535 7163 3736 Blue 27
1 PM Sat 89 97 SW 7 9024 8071 4644 Blue 29
2 PM Sat 92 99 SW 8 9458 8761 5334 White 31
3 PM Sat 91 97 SW 8 9024 8071 4644 Blue 29
4 PM Sat 88 92 SW 8 7327 5343 1916 Blue 24
5 PM Sat 87 89 SW 7 5367 4407 980 Blue 21
6 PM Sat 84 85 SW 7 4023 3427 0 Blue 17
7 PM Sat 79 79 SW 7 3178 3427 0 Blue 11
8 PM Sat 76 76 SW 6 2841 3427 0 Blue 8
9 PM Sat 75 75 SW 6 2747 3427 0 Blue 7
10 PM Sat 74 74 SW 6 2655 3427 0 Blue 6
11 PM Sat 74 74 W 1 2655 3427 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Sun 73 73 W 1 2551 3427 0 Blue 5
1 AM Sun 72 72 W 1 2499 3427 0 Blue 4
2 AM Sun 71 71 E 3 2450 3427 0 Blue 3
3 AM Sun 70 70 E 3 2401 3427 0 Blue 2
4 AM Sun 70 70 E 3 2401 3427 0 Blue 2
5 AM Sun 69 69 N 1 2351 3427 0 Blue 1
6 AM Sun 69 69 N 1 2351 3427 0 Blue 1
7 AM Sun 70 70 N 1 2401 3427 0 Blue 2
8 AM Sun 73 74 N 1 2655 3427 0 Blue 6
9 AM Sun 75 77 N 1 2953 3427 0 Blue 9
10 AM Sun 78 82 N 1 3419 3427 0 Blue 14
11 AM Sun 84 90 SW 8 5619 4747 1320 Blue 22
12 Noon Sun 88 95 SW 8 8535 7163 3736 Blue 27
1 PM Sun 90 97 SW 8 9024 8071 4644 Blue 29
2 PM Sun 92 99 SW 8 9458 8761 5334 White 31
3 PM Sun 91 97 SW 8 9024 8071 4644 Blue 29
4 PM Sun 89 93 SW 8 7746 5593 2166 Blue 25
5 PM Sun 87 89 SW 7 5367 4407 980 Blue 21
6 PM Sun 84 84 SW 7 3822 3427 0 Blue 16
7 PM Sun 80 80 SW 7 3272 3427 0 Blue 12
8 PM Sun 77 77 SW 7 2953 3427 0 Blue 9
9 PM Sun 76 76 SW 7 2841 3427 0 Blue 8
10 PM Sun 75 75 SW 7 2747 3427 0 Blue 7
11 PM Sun 74 74 SE 2 2655 3427 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Mon 74 74 SE 2 2655 3427 0 Blue 6
1 AM Mon 73 73 SE 2 2551 3427 0 Blue 5
2 AM Mon 72 72 SE 2 2499 3427 0 Blue 4
3 AM Mon 71 71 SE 2 2450 3427 0 Blue 3
4 AM Mon 71 71 SE 2 2450 3427 0 Blue 3
5 AM Mon 70 70 S 1 2401 3427 0 Blue 2
6 AM Mon 70 70 S 1 2401 3427 0 Blue 2
7 AM Mon 71 71 S 1 2450 3427 0 Blue 3
8 AM Mon 74 74 S 1 2655 3427 0 Blue 6
9 AM Mon 76 78 S 1 3066 3427 0 Blue 10
10 AM Mon 79 83 S 1 3621 3427 0 Blue 15
11 AM Mon 84 89 SW 9 5367 4407 980 Blue 21
12 Noon Mon 88 95 SW 9 8535 7163 3736 Blue 27
1 PM Mon 90 97 SW 9 9024 8071 4644 Blue 29
2 PM Mon 92 99 SW 9 9458 8761 5334 White 31
3 PM Mon 91 96 SW 9 8806 7677 4250 Blue 28
4 PM Mon 89 93 SW 9 7746 5593 2166 Blue 25
5 PM Mon 87 89 SW 9 5367 4407 980 Blue 21
6 PM Mon 84 84 SW 9 3822 3427 0 Blue 16
7 PM Mon 80 80 SW 9 3272 3427 0 Blue 12
8 PM Mon 77 77 SW 9 2953 3427 0 Blue 9
9 PM Mon 76 76 SW 9 2841 3427 0 Blue 8
10 PM Mon 75 75 SW 9 2747 3427 0 Blue 7
11 PM Mon 74 74 S 3 2655 3427 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Tue 74 74 S 3 2655 3427 0 Blue 6
1 AM Tue 73 73 S 3 2551 3427 0 Blue 5
2 AM Tue 72 72 S 3 2499 3427 0 Blue 4
3 AM Tue 71 71 S 3 2450 3427 0 Blue 3
4 AM Tue 71 71 S 3 2450 3427 0 Blue 3
5 AM Tue 70 70 SE 2 2401 3427 0 Blue 2
6 AM Tue 70 70 SE 2 2401 3427 0 Blue 2
7 AM Tue 71 71 SE 2 2450 3427 0 Blue 3
8 AM Tue 74 74 SE 2 2655 3427 0 Blue 6
9 AM Tue 77 79 SE 2 3178 3427 0 Blue 11
10 AM Tue 80 84 SE 2 3822 3427 0 Blue 16
11 AM Tue 86 91 SW 9 6200 5085 1658 Blue 23
12 Noon Tue 90 97 SW 9 9024 8071 4644 Blue 29
1 PM Tue 91 98 SW 9 9242 8458 5031 Blue 30
2 PM Tue 94 101 SW 9 9880 9194 5767 White 33
3 PM Tue 93 99 SW 9 9458 8761 5334 White 31
4 PM Tue 90 94 SW 9 8144 6053 2626 Blue 26
5 PM Tue 89 91 SW 9 6200 5085 1658 Blue 23
6 PM Tue 86 86 SW 9 4430 3612 185 Blue 18
7 PM Tue 81 81 SW 9 3340 3427 0 Blue 13
8 PM Tue 77 77 SW 9 2953 3427 0 Blue 9
9 PM Tue 77 77 SW 9 2953 3427 0 Blue 9
10 PM Tue 75 75 SW 9 2747 3427 0 Blue 7
11 PM Tue 75 75 S 3 2747 3427 0 Blue 7
12 Midnight Wed 74 74 S 3 2655 3427 0 Blue 6
1 AM Wed 74 74 S 3 2655 3427 0 Blue 6
2 AM Wed 72 72 S 3 2499 3427 0 Blue 4
3 AM Wed 71 71 S 3 2450 3427 0 Blue 3
4 AM Wed 71 71 S 3 2450 3427 0 Blue 3
5 AM Wed 70 70 SE 3 2401 3427 0 Blue 2
6 AM Wed 70 70 SE 3 2401 3427 0 Blue 2
7 AM Wed 71 71 SE 3 2450 3427 0 Blue 3
8 AM Wed 74 74 SE 3 2655 3427 0 Blue 6
9 AM Wed 76 78 SE 3 3066 3427 0 Blue 10
10 AM Wed 79 83 SE 3 3621 3427 0 Blue 15
11 AM Wed 85 90 SW 10 5619 4747 1320 Blue 22
12 Noon Wed 89 95 SW 10 8535 7163 3736 Blue 27
1 PM Wed 91 97 SW 10 9024 8071 4644 Blue 29
2 PM Wed 93 99 SW 10 9458 8761 5334 White 31
3 PM Wed 92 97 SW 10 9024 8071 4644 Blue 29
4 PM Wed 89 92 SW 10 7327 5343 1916 Blue 24
5 PM Wed 88 90 SW 10 5619 4747 1320 Blue 22
6 PM Wed 85 85 SW 10 4023 3427 0 Blue 17
7 PM Wed 80 80 SW 10 3272 3427 0 Blue 12
8 PM Wed 77 77 SW 10 2953 3427 0 Blue 9
9 PM Wed 76 76 SW 10 2841 3427 0 Blue 8
10 PM Wed 75 75 SW 10 2747 3427 0 Blue 7
11 PM Wed 75 75 S 6 2747 3427 0 Blue 7
12 Midnight Thu 74 74 S 6 2655 3427 0 Blue 6
1 AM Thu 73 73 S 6 2551 3427 0 Blue 5
2 AM Thu 72 72 S 6 2499 3427 0 Blue 4
3 AM Thu 71 71 S 6 2450 3427 0 Blue 3
4 AM Thu 71 71 S 6 2450 3427 0 Blue 3
5 AM Thu 70 70 SE 3 2401 3427 0 Blue 2
6 AM Thu 70 70 SE 3 2401 3427 0 Blue 2
7 AM Thu 71 71 SE 3 2450 3427 0 Blue 3
8 AM Thu 74 74 SE 3 2655 3427 0 Blue 6
9 AM Thu 76 78 SE 3 3066 3427 0 Blue 10
10 AM Thu 78 82 SE 3 3419 3427 0 Blue 14
11 AM Thu 83 88 SW 10 5114 4012 585 Blue 20
12 Noon Thu 87 93 SW 10 7746 5593 2166 Blue 25
1 PM Thu 88 94 SW 10 8144 6053 2626 Blue 26
2 PM Thu 90 96 SW 10 8806 7677 4250 Blue 28
3 PM Thu 89 94 SW 10 8144 6053 2626 Blue 26
4 PM Thu 87 90 SW 10 5619 4747 1320 Blue 22
5 PM Thu 85 87 SW 10 4774 3813 386 Blue 19
6 PM Thu 83 83 SW 10 3621 3427 0 Blue 15
7 PM Thu 79 79 SW 10 3178 3427 0 Blue 11
8 PM Thu 76 76 SW 10 2841 3427 0 Blue 8
9 PM Thu 76 76 SW 10 2841 3427 0 Blue 8
10 PM Thu 74 74 SW 10 2655 3427 0 Blue 6
11 PM Thu 74 74 S 6 2655 3427 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Fri 73 73 S 6 2551 3427 0 Blue 5
1 AM Fri 73 73 S 6 2551 3427 0 Blue 5
2 AM Fri 72 72 S 6 2499 3427 0 Blue 4
3 AM Fri 71 71 S 6 2450 3427 0 Blue 3
4 AM Fri 71 71 S 6 2450 3427 0 Blue 3

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst