Detailed Predictions for: Henninger Flats
Launch Altitude (f): 3427
LZ Altitude (f): 1033
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

26 APR 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 56 56 SW 1 2283 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 57 57 SW 1 2333 3427 0 Blue 1
7 AM Thu 61 61 SW 1 2542 3427 0 Blue 5
8 AM Thu 64 65 NW 2 3108 3427 0 Blue 9
9 AM Thu 67 69 NW 2 3819 3427 0 Blue 13
10 AM Thu 70 74 NW 2 4420 4014 587 Blue 18
11 AM Thu 72 78 S 5 5529 4715 1288 Blue 22
12 Noon Thu 74 81 S 5 6783 5503 2076 Blue 25
1 PM Thu 75 82 S 5 6927 6354 2927 Blue 26
2 PM Thu 76 82 SW 7 6927 6354 2927 Blue 26
3 PM Thu 76 81 SW 7 6783 5503 2076 Blue 25
4 PM Thu 75 78 SW 7 5529 4715 1288 Blue 22
5 PM Thu 74 75 SW 7 4740 4119 692 Blue 19
6 PM Thu 70 70 SW 7 3914 3485 58 Blue 14
7 PM Thu 66 66 SW 7 3265 3427 0 Blue 10
8 PM Thu 64 64 SW 7 2951 3427 0 Blue 8
9 PM Thu 63 63 SW 7 2730 3427 0 Blue 7
10 PM Thu 61 61 SW 7 2542 3427 0 Blue 5
11 PM Thu 60 60 SW 2 2489 3427 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Fri 59 59 SW 2 2436 3427 0 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 58 58 SW 2 2382 3427 0 Blue 2
2 AM Fri 57 57 S 2 2333 3427 0 Blue 1
3 AM Fri 56 56 S 2 2283 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 56 56 S 2 2283 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 55 55 S 2 2220 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 56 56 S 2 2283 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 60 60 S 2 2489 3427 0 Blue 4
8 AM Fri 63 63 S 2 2730 3427 0 Blue 7
9 AM Fri 66 66 S 2 3265 3427 0 Blue 10
10 AM Fri 68 69 S 2 3819 3427 0 Blue 13
11 AM Fri 70 75 SW 7 4740 4119 692 Blue 19
12 Noon Fri 72 78 SW 7 5529 4715 1288 Blue 22
1 PM Fri 73 79 SW 7 6385 5007 1580 Blue 23
2 PM Fri 74 80 SW 7 6616 5255 1828 Blue 24
3 PM Fri 74 79 SW 7 6385 5007 1580 Blue 23
4 PM Fri 73 76 SW 7 5029 4225 798 Blue 20
5 PM Fri 72 73 W 3 4232 3909 482 Blue 17
6 PM Fri 68 68 W 3 3724 3427 0 Blue 12
7 PM Fri 64 64 W 3 2951 3427 0 Blue 8
8 PM Fri 62 62 W 3 2606 3427 0 Blue 6
9 PM Fri 61 61 W 3 2542 3427 0 Blue 5
10 PM Fri 59 59 W 3 2436 3427 0 Blue 3
11 PM Fri 58 58 W 3 2382 3427 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sat 57 57 W 3 2333 3427 0 Blue 1
1 AM Sat 56 56 W 3 2283 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 55 55 W 3 2220 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 54 54 W 3 2172 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 54 54 W 3 2172 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 53 53 NW 3 2172 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 54 54 NW 3 2172 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 58 58 NW 3 2382 3427 0 Blue 2
8 AM Sat 61 62 NW 3 2606 3427 0 Blue 6
9 AM Sat 64 66 NW 3 3265 3427 0 Blue 10
10 AM Sat 67 71 NW 3 4020 3719 292 Blue 15
11 AM Sat 69 74 SW 10 4420 4014 587 Blue 18
12 Noon Sat 71 77 SW 10 5280 4398 971 Blue 21
1 PM Sat 72 79 SW 10 6385 5007 1580 Blue 23
2 PM Sat 73 79 SW 10 6385 5007 1580 Blue 23
3 PM Sat 73 78 SW 10 5529 4715 1288 Blue 22
4 PM Sat 72 75 SW 10 4740 4119 692 Blue 19
5 PM Sat 71 72 SW 10 4126 3814 387 Blue 16
6 PM Sat 67 67 SW 10 3496 3427 0 Blue 11
7 PM Sat 64 64 SW 10 2951 3427 0 Blue 8
8 PM Sat 62 62 SW 10 2606 3427 0 Blue 6
9 PM Sat 60 60 SW 10 2489 3427 0 Blue 4
10 PM Sat 59 59 SW 10 2436 3427 0 Blue 3
11 PM Sat 58 58 SW 2 2382 3427 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sun 57 57 SW 2 2333 3427 0 Blue 1
1 AM Sun 56 56 SW 2 2283 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 55 55 SW 2 2220 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 54 54 SW 2 2172 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 54 54 SW 2 2172 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 53 53 SE 1 2172 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 54 54 SE 1 2172 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 58 58 SE 1 2382 3427 0 Blue 2
8 AM Sun 61 62 SE 1 2606 3427 0 Blue 6
9 AM Sun 64 66 SE 1 3265 3427 0 Blue 10
10 AM Sun 67 71 SE 1 4020 3719 292 Blue 15
11 AM Sun 69 74 SW 9 4420 4014 587 Blue 18
12 Noon Sun 71 77 SW 9 5280 4398 971 Blue 21
1 PM Sun 72 78 SW 9 5529 4715 1288 Blue 22
2 PM Sun 73 79 SW 9 6385 5007 1580 Blue 23
3 PM Sun 73 78 SW 9 5529 4715 1288 Blue 22
4 PM Sun 72 75 SW 9 4740 4119 692 Blue 19
5 PM Sun 71 72 SW 9 4126 3814 387 Blue 16
6 PM Sun 67 67 SW 9 3496 3427 0 Blue 11
7 PM Sun 64 64 SW 9 2951 3427 0 Blue 8
8 PM Sun 62 62 SW 9 2606 3427 0 Blue 6
9 PM Sun 60 60 SW 9 2489 3427 0 Blue 4
10 PM Sun 59 59 SW 9 2436 3427 0 Blue 3
11 PM Sun 58 58 SE 6 2382 3427 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Mon 57 57 SE 6 2333 3427 0 Blue 1
1 AM Mon 56 56 SE 6 2283 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 55 55 SE 6 2220 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 54 54 SE 6 2172 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 54 54 SE 6 2172 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 53 53 SE 6 2172 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 54 54 SE 6 2172 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 58 58 SE 6 2382 3427 0 Blue 2
8 AM Mon 61 62 SE 6 2606 3427 0 Blue 6
9 AM Mon 64 66 SE 6 3265 3427 0 Blue 10
10 AM Mon 66 70 SE 6 3914 3485 58 Blue 14
11 AM Mon 68 73 S 8 4232 3909 482 Blue 17
12 Noon Mon 70 76 S 8 5029 4225 798 Blue 20
1 PM Mon 71 77 S 8 5280 4398 971 Blue 21
2 PM Mon 72 78 S 8 5529 4715 1288 Blue 22
3 PM Mon 72 76 S 8 5029 4225 798 Blue 20
4 PM Mon 71 74 S 8 4420 4014 587 Blue 18
5 PM Mon 70 71 S 6 4020 3719 292 Blue 15
6 PM Mon 67 67 S 6 3496 3427 0 Blue 11
7 PM Mon 63 63 S 6 2730 3427 0 Blue 7
8 PM Mon 61 61 S 6 2542 3427 0 Blue 5
9 PM Mon 59 59 S 6 2436 3427 0 Blue 3
10 PM Mon 58 58 S 6 2382 3427 0 Blue 2
11 PM Mon 57 57 SE 7 2333 3427 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Tue 56 56 SE 7 2283 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 55 55 SE 7 2220 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 54 54 SE 7 2172 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 54 54 SE 7 2172 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 53 53 SE 7 2172 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 53 53 SE 7 2172 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 55 55 SE 7 2220 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 57 57 SE 7 2333 3427 0 Blue 1
8 AM Tue 60 60 SE 7 2489 3427 0 Blue 4
9 AM Tue 62 64 SE 7 2951 3427 0 Blue 8
10 AM Tue 64 67 SE 7 3496 3427 0 Blue 11
11 AM Tue 66 69 S 8 3819 3427 0 Blue 13
12 Noon Tue 67 71 S 8 4020 3719 292 Blue 15
1 PM Tue 68 72 S 8 4126 3814 387 Blue 16
2 PM Tue 69 73 S 8 4232 3909 482 Blue 17
3 PM Tue 69 72 S 8 4126 3814 387 Blue 16
4 PM Tue 68 70 S 8 3914 3485 58 Blue 14
5 PM Tue 67 68 S 8 3724 3427 0 Blue 12
6 PM Tue 65 65 S 8 3108 3427 0 Blue 9
7 PM Tue 61 61 S 8 2542 3427 0 Blue 5
8 PM Tue 60 60 S 8 2489 3427 0 Blue 4
9 PM Tue 58 58 S 8 2382 3427 0 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 57 57 S 8 2333 3427 0 Blue 1
11 PM Tue 56 56 S 8 2283 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 56 56 S 8 2283 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 55 55 S 8 2220 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 54 54 S 8 2172 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 53 53 S 8 2172 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 53 53 S 8 2172 3427 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst