Detailed Predictions for: Henninger Flats
Launch Altitude (f): 3427
LZ Altitude (f): 1033
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

1 DEC 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Tue 62 62 N 7 1536 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 61 61 N 7 1386 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 61 61 N 7 1386 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 62 62 N 7 1536 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 67 67 N 7 2286 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 65 66 N 7 2136 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 69 71 NE 10 3999 3427 0 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 71 73 NE 10 5384 3427 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Tue 71 73 NE 10 5384 3427 0 Blue 5
1 PM Tue 73 75 NE 9 6233 4666 1239 Blue 7
2 PM Tue 74 75 NE 9 6233 4666 1239 Blue 7
3 PM Tue 74 74 NE 9 5812 3963 536 Blue 6
4 PM Tue 70 70 NE 8 3331 3427 0 Blue 2
5 PM Tue 62 62 NE 8 1536 3427 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 64 64 NE 8 1836 3427 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 63 63 NE 10 1686 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 63 63 NE 10 1686 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 63 63 NE 10 1686 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 61 61 NE 14 1386 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 62 62 NE 14 1536 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 60 60 NE 14 1236 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 59 59 NE 16 1085 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 59 59 NE 16 1085 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 58 58 NE 16 935 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 58 58 NE 16 935 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 57 57 NE 16 784 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 57 57 NE 16 784 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 58 58 NE 18 935 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 63 63 NE 18 1686 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 61 62 NE 18 1536 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 65 66 NE 18 2136 3427 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 67 69 NE 18 2681 3427 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 67 69 NE 18 2681 3427 0 Blue 1
1 PM Wed 69 70 SW 13 3331 3427 0 Blue 2
2 PM Wed 70 71 SW 13 3999 3427 0 Blue 3
3 PM Wed 70 70 SW 13 3331 3427 0 Blue 2
4 PM Wed 65 65 SW 13 1986 3427 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 57 57 SW 13 784 3427 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 59 59 SW 13 1085 3427 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 58 58 N 13 935 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 58 58 N 13 935 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 58 58 N 13 935 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 56 56 NE 16 686 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 58 58 NE 16 935 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 55 55 NE 16 686 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 54 54 NE 17 686 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 54 54 NE 17 686 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 54 54 NE 17 686 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 53 53 NE 18 686 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 52 52 NE 18 686 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 52 52 NE 18 686 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 53 53 NE 21 686 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 57 57 NE 21 784 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 56 56 NE 21 686 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 59 60 NE 22 1236 3427 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 61 63 NE 22 1686 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 62 64 NE 22 1836 3427 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 64 66 NE 22 2136 3427 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 64 65 NE 22 1986 3427 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 64 64 NE 22 1836 3427 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 60 60 NE 21 1236 3427 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 53 53 NE 21 686 3427 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 54 54 NE 21 686 3427 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 53 53 NE 17 686 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 53 53 NE 17 686 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 53 53 NE 17 686 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 52 52 NE 17 686 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 53 53 NE 17 686 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 51 51 NE 17 686 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 50 50 NE 20 686 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 50 50 NE 20 686 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 49 49 NE 20 686 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 49 49 NE 22 686 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 48 48 NE 22 686 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 48 48 NE 22 686 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 50 50 NE 22 686 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 56 56 NE 22 686 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 54 55 NE 22 686 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 59 61 NE 18 1386 3427 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 61 63 NE 18 1686 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 62 64 NE 18 1836 3427 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 65 67 NE 12 2286 3427 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 66 67 NE 12 2286 3427 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 66 66 NE 12 2136 3427 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 62 62 N 12 1536 3427 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 54 54 N 12 686 3427 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 56 56 N 12 686 3427 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 55 55 N 12 686 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 55 55 N 12 686 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 55 55 N 12 686 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 53 53 NE 12 686 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 54 54 NE 12 686 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 52 52 NE 12 686 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 51 51 NE 12 686 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 51 51 NE 12 686 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 50 50 NE 12 686 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 50 50 NE 12 686 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 49 49 NE 12 686 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 49 49 NE 12 686 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 51 51 NE 9 686 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 58 58 NE 9 935 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 55 56 NE 9 686 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 60 62 NE 10 1536 3427 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 63 65 NE 10 1986 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 64 66 NE 10 2136 3427 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 67 69 N 10 2681 3427 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sat 68 69 N 10 2681 3427 0 Blue 1
3 PM Sat 68 68 N 10 2435 3427 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 63 63 N 9 1686 3427 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 55 55 N 9 686 3427 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 57 57 N 9 784 3427 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 56 56 N 8 686 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 56 56 N 8 686 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 56 56 N 8 686 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 54 54 NE 8 686 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 56 56 NE 8 686 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 53 53 NE 8 686 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 52 52 NE 8 686 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 52 52 NE 8 686 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 52 52 NE 8 686 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 51 51 NE 8 686 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 50 50 NE 8 686 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 50 50 NE 8 686 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 52 52 N 9 686 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 58 58 N 9 935 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 56 57 N 9 784 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 61 63 N 8 1686 3427 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 63 65 N 8 1986 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 64 66 N 8 2136 3427 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 67 69 W 8 2681 3427 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sun 68 69 W 8 2681 3427 0 Blue 1
3 PM Sun 68 68 W 8 2435 3427 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 64 64 W 7 1836 3427 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 56 56 W 7 686 3427 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 58 58 W 7 935 3427 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 57 57 NE 7 784 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 57 57 NE 7 784 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 57 57 NE 7 784 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 55 55 NE 7 686 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 56 56 NE 7 686 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 54 54 NE 7 686 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 53 53 NE 7 686 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 53 53 NE 7 686 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 52 52 NE 7 686 3427 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst