Detailed Predictions for: Henninger Flats
Launch Altitude (f): 3427
LZ Altitude (f): 1033
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

23 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 51 51 NE 3 1388 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 50 50 NE 3 1388 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 50 50 NE 3 1388 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 53 53 NE 3 1388 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 56 57 NE 3 1388 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 57 60 NE 3 3244 3427 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 59 63 W 6 4541 3427 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 62 68 W 6 5841 4988 1561 Blue 10
1 PM Sat 64 70 W 6 6337 5411 1984 White 12
2 PM Sat 67 72 W 8 6766 6177 2750 White 14
3 PM Sat 69 73 W 8 6980 6552 3125 White 15
4 PM Sat 68 70 W 8 6337 5411 1984 White 12
5 PM Sat 65 66 W 10 5188 4523 1096 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 61 61 W 10 3588 3427 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 56 56 W 10 1388 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 54 54 W 9 1388 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 53 53 W 9 1388 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 54 54 W 9 1388 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 54 54 N 7 1388 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 55 55 N 7 1388 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 54 54 N 7 1388 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 54 54 N 7 1388 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 54 54 N 7 1388 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 53 53 N 7 1388 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 52 52 NE 10 1388 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 51 51 NE 10 1388 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 51 51 NE 10 1388 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 56 56 NE 10 1388 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 59 60 NE 10 3244 3427 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sun 61 64 NE 10 4880 3580 153 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 64 68 SW 7 5841 4988 1561 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 68 74 SW 7 7194 6922 3495 White 16
1 PM Sun 71 77 SW 7 7834 7834 4407 White 19
2 PM Sun 75 80 SW 7 8468 8468 5041 White 22
3 PM Sun 78 82 SW 7 8885 8885 5458 White 24
4 PM Sun 76 78 SW 7 8047 8047 4620 White 20
5 PM Sun 72 73 SW 6 6980 6552 3125 White 15
6 PM Sun 67 67 SW 6 5451 4870 1443 Blue 9
7 PM Sun 60 60 SW 6 3244 3427 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sun 57 57 SW 6 1388 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 56 56 SW 6 1388 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 57 57 SW 6 1388 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 57 57 N 10 1388 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 58 58 N 10 2714 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 58 58 N 10 2714 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 57 57 N 10 1388 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 57 57 N 10 1388 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 55 55 N 10 1388 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 55 55 NE 14 1388 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 53 53 NE 14 1388 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 53 53 NE 14 1388 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 58 58 NE 14 2714 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 62 63 NE 14 4541 3427 0 Blue 5
10 AM Mon 64 67 NE 14 5451 4870 1443 Blue 9
11 AM Mon 67 71 N 7 6552 5796 2369 White 13
12 Noon Mon 72 78 N 7 8047 8047 4620 White 20
1 PM Mon 75 81 N 7 8677 8677 5250 White 23
2 PM Mon 80 85 N 7 9516 9516 6089 White 27
3 PM Mon 83 87 N 7 9936 9936 6509 White 29
4 PM Mon 81 83 N 7 9094 9094 5667 White 25
5 PM Mon 77 78 NW 7 8047 8047 4620 White 20
6 PM Mon 72 72 NW 7 6766 6177 2750 White 14
7 PM Mon 64 64 NW 7 4880 3580 153 Blue 6
8 PM Mon 61 61 NW 7 3588 3427 0 Blue 3
9 PM Mon 60 60 NW 7 3244 3427 0 Blue 2
10 PM Mon 61 61 NW 7 3588 3427 0 Blue 3
11 PM Mon 61 61 N 7 3588 3427 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Tue 62 62 N 7 4308 3427 0 Blue 4
1 AM Tue 62 62 N 7 4308 3427 0 Blue 4
2 AM Tue 61 61 N 7 3588 3427 0 Blue 3
3 AM Tue 61 61 N 7 3588 3427 0 Blue 3
4 AM Tue 59 59 N 7 2896 3427 0 Blue 1
5 AM Tue 59 59 NE 9 2896 3427 0 Blue 1
6 AM Tue 57 57 NE 9 1388 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 57 57 NE 9 1388 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 62 62 NE 9 4308 3427 0 Blue 4
9 AM Tue 66 67 NE 9 5451 4870 1443 Blue 9
10 AM Tue 67 70 NE 9 6337 5411 1984 White 12
11 AM Tue 70 74 NW 5 7194 6922 3495 White 16
12 Noon Tue 74 80 NW 5 8468 8468 5041 White 22
1 PM Tue 78 84 NW 5 9305 9305 5878 White 26
2 PM Tue 82 87 NW 5 9936 9936 6509 White 29
3 PM Tue 85 89 NW 5 10347 10347 6920 White 31
4 PM Tue 83 85 NW 5 9516 9516 6089 White 27
5 PM Tue 79 80 W 3 8468 8468 5041 White 22
6 PM Tue 75 75 W 3 7408 7287 3860 White 17
7 PM Tue 68 68 W 3 5841 4988 1561 Blue 10
8 PM Tue 65 65 W 3 4998 4293 866 Blue 7
9 PM Tue 64 64 W 3 4880 3580 153 Blue 6
10 PM Tue 65 65 W 3 4998 4293 866 Blue 7
11 PM Tue 65 65 N 5 4998 4293 866 Blue 7
12 Midnight Wed 66 66 N 5 5188 4523 1096 Blue 8
1 AM Wed 65 65 N 5 4998 4293 866 Blue 7
2 AM Wed 65 65 N 5 4998 4293 866 Blue 7
3 AM Wed 65 65 N 5 4998 4293 866 Blue 7
4 AM Wed 63 63 N 5 4541 3427 0 Blue 5
5 AM Wed 63 63 NE 6 4541 3427 0 Blue 5
6 AM Wed 61 61 NE 6 3588 3427 0 Blue 3
7 AM Wed 61 61 NE 6 3588 3427 0 Blue 3
8 AM Wed 65 65 NE 6 4998 4293 866 Blue 7
9 AM Wed 68 69 NE 6 6122 5167 1740 White 11
10 AM Wed 70 73 NE 6 6980 6552 3125 White 15
11 AM Wed 72 76 N 5 7621 7621 4194 White 18
12 Noon Wed 76 82 N 5 8885 8885 5458 White 24
1 PM Wed 79 85 N 5 9516 9516 6089 White 27
2 PM Wed 83 88 N 5 10142 10142 6715 White 30
3 PM Wed 85 89 N 5 10347 10347 6920 White 31
4 PM Wed 83 85 N 5 9516 9516 6089 White 27
5 PM Wed 80 81 NW 3 8677 8677 5250 White 23
6 PM Wed 75 75 NW 3 7408 7287 3860 White 17
7 PM Wed 69 69 NW 3 6122 5167 1740 White 11
8 PM Wed 66 66 NW 3 5188 4523 1096 Blue 8
9 PM Wed 65 65 NW 3 4998 4293 866 Blue 7
10 PM Wed 66 66 NW 3 5188 4523 1096 Blue 8
11 PM Wed 66 66 N 5 5188 4523 1096 Blue 8
12 Midnight Thu 67 67 N 5 5451 4870 1443 Blue 9
1 AM Thu 66 66 N 5 5188 4523 1096 Blue 8
2 AM Thu 66 66 N 5 5188 4523 1096 Blue 8
3 AM Thu 65 65 N 5 4998 4293 866 Blue 7
4 AM Thu 64 64 N 5 4880 3580 153 Blue 6
5 AM Thu 64 64 NE 6 4880 3580 153 Blue 6
6 AM Thu 62 62 NE 6 4308 3427 0 Blue 4
7 AM Thu 62 62 NE 6 4308 3427 0 Blue 4
8 AM Thu 67 67 NE 6 5451 4870 1443 Blue 9
9 AM Thu 70 71 NE 6 6552 5796 2369 White 13
10 AM Thu 71 74 NE 6 7194 6922 3495 White 16
11 AM Thu 74 78 N 6 8047 8047 4620 White 20
12 Noon Thu 77 83 N 6 9094 9094 5667 White 25
1 PM Thu 81 87 N 6 9936 9936 6509 White 29
2 PM Thu 84 89 N 6 10347 10347 6920 White 31
3 PM Thu 87 91 N 6 10756 10756 7329 White 33
4 PM Thu 85 87 N 6 9936 9936 6509 White 29
5 PM Thu 82 83 NW 6 9094 9094 5667 White 25
6 PM Thu 77 77 NW 6 7834 7834 4407 White 19
7 PM Thu 71 71 NW 6 6552 5796 2369 White 13
8 PM Thu 68 68 NW 6 5841 4988 1561 Blue 10
9 PM Thu 67 67 NW 6 5451 4870 1443 Blue 9
10 PM Thu 68 68 NW 6 5841 4988 1561 Blue 10
11 PM Thu 68 68 N 7 5841 4988 1561 Blue 10
12 Midnight Fri 69 69 N 7 6122 5167 1740 White 11
1 AM Fri 68 68 N 7 5841 4988 1561 Blue 10
2 AM Fri 68 68 N 7 5841 4988 1561 Blue 10
3 AM Fri 67 67 N 7 5451 4870 1443 Blue 9
4 AM Fri 66 66 N 7 5188 4523 1096 Blue 8

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst