Detailed Predictions for: Henninger Flats
Launch Altitude (f): 3427
LZ Altitude (f): 1033
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

14 DEC 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 54 54 SE 2 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 56 56 SE 2 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 54 54 SE 2 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 54 54 SE 3 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 61 61 SE 3 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 60 60 SE 3 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 63 63 S 5 1637 3427 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 64 64 S 5 1957 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 65 65 S 5 2275 3427 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 65 65 SE 10 2275 3427 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 65 65 SE 10 2275 3427 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 64 64 SE 10 1957 3427 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 62 62 S 5 1314 3427 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 56 56 S 5 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 58 58 S 5 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 57 57 SE 6 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 58 58 SE 6 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 59 59 SE 6 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 58 58 S 1 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 58 58 S 1 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 57 57 S 1 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 56 56 SE 3 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 55 55 SE 3 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 56 56 SE 3 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 54 54 SE 2 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 57 57 SE 2 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 54 54 SE 2 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 54 54 E 3 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 62 62 E 3 1314 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 62 62 E 3 1314 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 66 67 SE 3 3063 3427 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 67 69 SE 3 4240 3427 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sat 68 70 SE 3 4462 3427 0 Blue 3
1 PM Sat 68 70 S 3 4462 3427 0 Blue 3
2 PM Sat 68 69 S 3 4240 3427 0 Blue 2
3 PM Sat 67 67 S 3 3063 3427 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 65 65 S 3 2275 3427 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 57 57 S 3 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 59 59 S 3 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 59 59 S 3 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 60 60 S 3 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 61 61 S 3 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 60 60 E 3 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 60 60 E 3 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 59 59 E 3 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 57 57 E 3 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 57 57 E 3 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 57 57 E 3 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 55 55 SE 3 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 57 57 SE 3 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 55 55 SE 3 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 55 55 SE 3 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 62 62 SE 3 1314 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 61 61 SE 3 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 64 65 SE 5 2275 3427 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 65 66 SE 5 2590 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 66 67 SE 5 3063 3427 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 66 67 SE 5 3063 3427 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 66 67 SE 5 3063 3427 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 64 64 SE 5 1957 3427 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 61 61 S 6 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 50 50 S 6 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 53 53 S 6 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 52 52 S 6 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 54 54 S 6 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 55 55 S 6 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 54 54 SE 5 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 54 54 SE 5 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 52 52 SE 5 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 50 50 SE 5 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 50 50 SE 5 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 50 50 SE 5 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 47 47 SE 7 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 49 49 SE 7 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 47 47 SE 7 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 47 47 SE 7 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 53 53 SE 7 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 52 52 SE 7 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 55 55 S 5 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 56 56 S 5 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 57 58 S 5 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 57 57 S 5 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 57 57 S 5 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 56 56 S 5 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 55 55 SW 6 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 49 49 SW 6 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 51 51 SW 6 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 50 50 SW 6 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 51 51 SW 6 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 52 52 SW 6 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 51 51 N 5 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 52 52 N 5 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 51 51 N 5 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 49 49 N 5 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 49 49 N 5 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 50 50 N 5 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 48 48 N 6 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 51 51 N 6 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 48 48 N 6 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 49 49 N 6 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 57 57 N 6 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 57 57 N 6 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 61 62 N 6 1314 3427 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 63 65 N 6 2275 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 64 66 N 6 2590 3427 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 64 66 N 6 2590 3427 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 64 65 N 6 2275 3427 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 63 63 N 6 1637 3427 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 61 61 N 3 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 53 53 N 3 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 55 55 N 3 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 55 55 N 3 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 56 56 N 3 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 57 57 N 3 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 56 56 N 6 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 56 56 N 6 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 55 55 N 6 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 53 53 N 6 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 53 53 N 6 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 53 53 N 6 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 51 51 NE 7 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 55 NE 7 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 51 51 NE 7 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 52 52 NE 7 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 65 65 NE 7 2275 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 63 64 NE 7 1957 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 70 71 NE 6 4682 4006 579 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 72 74 NE 6 6125 4665 1238 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 74 76 NE 6 7320 5276 1849 Blue 9
1 PM Wed 74 76 NE 6 7320 5276 1849 Blue 9
2 PM Wed 74 75 NE 6 6790 4884 1457 Blue 8
3 PM Wed 72 72 NE 6 4902 4226 799 Blue 5
4 PM Wed 69 69 N 3 4240 3427 0 Blue 2
5 PM Wed 58 58 N 3 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 61 61 N 3 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 60 60 N 3 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 62 62 N 3 1314 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 63 63 N 3 1637 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 62 62 NE 6 1314 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 62 62 NE 6 1314 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 60 60 NE 6 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 58 58 NE 6 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 58 58 NE 6 1050 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 58 58 NE 6 1050 3427 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst