Detailed Predictions for: Henninger Flats
Launch Altitude (f): 3427
LZ Altitude (f): 1033
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

16 FEB 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sat 41 41 NW 8 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 40 40 NW 8 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 39 39 NW 8 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 39 39 NW 8 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 45 45 NW 8 2953 3427 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sat 48 49 NW 8 3946 3946 519 White 5
10 AM Sat 51 53 NW 12 4820 4820 1393 White 9
11 AM Sat 51 53 NW 12 4820 4820 1393 White 9
12 Noon Sat 49 51 NW 12 4380 4380 953 White 7
1 PM Sat 49 51 NW 12 4380 4380 953 White 7
2 PM Sat 52 54 NW 12 5037 5037 1610 White 10
3 PM Sat 51 52 NW 12 4601 4601 1174 White 8
4 PM Sat 51 51 NW 12 4380 4380 953 White 7
5 PM Sat 46 46 NW 12 3292 3427 0 White 2
6 PM Sat 41 41 NW 12 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 41 41 NW 12 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 42 42 NW 12 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 44 44 NW 12 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 44 44 NW 9 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 43 43 NW 9 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 43 43 NW 9 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 42 42 NW 10 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 42 42 NW 10 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 42 42 NW 10 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 42 42 NW 7 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 40 40 NW 7 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 39 39 NW 7 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 39 39 NW 7 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 42 42 NW 7 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 44 44 NW 7 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 46 46 S 7 3292 3427 0 White 2
11 AM Sun 45 45 S 7 2953 3427 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sun 44 44 S 7 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 45 45 S 7 2953 3427 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sun 46 46 S 7 3292 3427 0 White 2
3 PM Sun 45 45 S 7 2953 3427 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sun 45 45 NW 8 2953 3427 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sun 39 39 NW 8 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 34 34 NW 8 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 33 33 NW 8 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 34 34 NW 8 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 37 37 NW 8 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 36 36 NW 10 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 36 36 NW 10 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 35 35 NW 10 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 35 35 NW 10 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 34 34 NW 10 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 35 35 NW 10 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 34 34 NW 10 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 32 32 NW 10 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 31 31 NW 10 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 31 31 NW 10 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 39 39 NW 10 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 44 45 NW 10 2953 3427 0 Blue 1
10 AM Mon 49 51 N 6 4380 4380 953 White 7
11 AM Mon 48 51 N 6 4380 4380 953 White 7
12 Noon Mon 46 49 N 6 3946 3946 519 White 5
1 PM Mon 46 49 N 6 3946 3946 519 White 5
2 PM Mon 50 52 N 6 4601 4601 1174 White 8
3 PM Mon 49 50 N 6 4163 4163 736 White 6
4 PM Mon 49 49 N 9 3946 3946 519 White 5
5 PM Mon 44 44 N 9 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 39 39 N 9 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 39 39 N 9 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 40 40 N 9 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 42 42 N 9 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 42 42 N 7 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 41 41 N 7 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 41 41 N 7 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 40 40 N 7 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 40 40 N 7 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 40 40 N 7 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 40 40 NE 9 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 38 38 NE 9 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 37 37 NE 9 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 37 37 NE 9 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 43 43 NE 9 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 47 48 NE 9 3729 3427 0 White 4
10 AM Tue 50 52 S 6 4601 4601 1174 White 8
11 AM Tue 49 52 S 6 4601 4601 1174 White 8
12 Noon Tue 48 52 S 6 4601 4601 1174 White 8
1 PM Tue 48 51 S 6 4380 4380 953 White 7
2 PM Tue 51 53 S 6 4820 4820 1393 White 9
3 PM Tue 50 51 S 6 4380 4380 953 White 7
4 PM Tue 50 50 S 5 4163 4163 736 White 6
5 PM Tue 45 45 S 5 2953 3427 0 Blue 1
6 PM Tue 40 40 S 5 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 40 40 S 5 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 41 41 S 5 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 43 43 S 5 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 43 43 N 5 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 42 42 N 5 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 42 42 N 5 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 41 41 N 5 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 41 41 N 5 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 41 41 N 5 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 41 41 SE 5 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 39 39 SE 5 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 38 38 SE 5 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 38 38 SE 5 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 43 43 SE 5 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 46 47 SE 5 3510 3427 0 White 3
10 AM Wed 48 49 SW 12 3946 3946 519 White 5
11 AM Wed 48 50 SW 12 4163 4163 736 White 6
12 Noon Wed 47 49 SW 12 3946 3946 519 White 5
1 PM Wed 47 49 SW 12 3946 3946 519 White 5
2 PM Wed 49 50 SW 12 4163 4163 736 White 6
3 PM Wed 48 49 SW 12 3946 3946 519 White 5
4 PM Wed 48 48 SW 12 3729 3427 0 White 4
5 PM Wed 44 44 SW 12 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 41 41 SW 12 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 40 40 SW 12 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 41 41 SW 12 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 43 43 SW 12 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 43 43 S 8 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 42 42 S 8 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 42 42 S 8 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 42 42 S 8 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 41 41 S 8 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 42 42 S 8 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 41 41 SW 10 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 40 40 SW 10 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 39 39 SW 10 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 39 39 SW 10 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 42 42 SW 10 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 45 45 SW 10 2953 3427 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 47 48 W 10 3729 3427 0 White 4
11 AM Thu 46 47 W 10 3510 3427 0 White 3
12 Noon Thu 45 46 W 10 3292 3427 0 White 2
1 PM Thu 45 46 W 10 3292 3427 0 White 2
2 PM Thu 47 48 W 10 3729 3427 0 White 4
3 PM Thu 47 47 W 10 3510 3427 0 White 3
4 PM Thu 46 46 W 9 3292 3427 0 White 2
5 PM Thu 43 43 W 9 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 40 40 W 9 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 40 40 W 9 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 41 41 W 9 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 42 42 W 9 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 42 42 N 9 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 42 42 N 9 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 41 41 N 9 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 41 41 N 9 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 41 41 N 9 1870 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 41 41 N 9 1870 3427 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst