Detailed Predictions for: Henninger Flats
Launch Altitude (f): 3427
LZ Altitude (f): 1033
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 57 57 N 13 3026 3427 0 Blue 14
6 AM Fri 58 58 N 13 3064 3427 0 Blue 15
7 AM Fri 54 54 N 13 2910 3427 0 Blue 11
8 AM Fri 59 59 N 13 3103 3427 0 Blue 16
9 AM Fri 62 63 N 13 3258 3427 0 Blue 20
10 AM Fri 66 68 N 13 3454 3427 0 Blue 25
11 AM Fri 68 71 SW 5 3581 3452 25 Blue 28
12 Noon Fri 69 73 SW 5 3665 3537 110 Blue 30
1 PM Fri 71 75 SW 5 3788 3621 194 Blue 32
2 PM Fri 73 76 SW 5 3875 3664 237 Blue 33
3 PM Fri 74 76 SW 5 3875 3664 237 Blue 33
4 PM Fri 73 74 SW 5 3708 3579 152 Blue 31
5 PM Fri 70 70 SW 5 3539 3427 0 Blue 27
6 PM Fri 65 65 SW 5 3335 3427 0 Blue 22
7 PM Fri 63 63 SW 5 3258 3427 0 Blue 20
8 PM Fri 63 63 SW 5 3258 3427 0 Blue 20
9 PM Fri 62 62 SW 5 3219 3427 0 Blue 19
10 PM Fri 62 62 SW 5 3219 3427 0 Blue 19
11 PM Fri 62 62 N 6 3219 3427 0 Blue 19
12 Midnight Sat 61 61 N 6 3180 3427 0 Blue 18
1 AM Sat 61 61 N 6 3180 3427 0 Blue 18
2 AM Sat 62 62 N 2 3219 3427 0 Blue 19
3 AM Sat 61 61 N 2 3180 3427 0 Blue 18
4 AM Sat 60 60 N 2 3142 3427 0 Blue 17
5 AM Sat 61 61 N 1 3180 3427 0 Blue 18
6 AM Sat 60 60 N 1 3142 3427 0 Blue 17
7 AM Sat 58 58 N 1 3064 3427 0 Blue 15
8 AM Sat 62 62 N 1 3219 3427 0 Blue 19
9 AM Sat 65 66 N 1 3374 3427 0 Blue 23
10 AM Sat 69 71 N 1 3581 3452 25 Blue 28
11 AM Sat 71 74 W 3 3708 3579 152 Blue 31
12 Noon Sat 72 76 W 3 3875 3664 237 Blue 33
1 PM Sat 73 77 W 3 4196 3706 279 Blue 34
2 PM Sat 75 79 W 3 4580 3863 436 Blue 36
3 PM Sat 76 79 W 3 4580 3863 436 Blue 36
4 PM Sat 75 76 W 3 3875 3664 237 Blue 33
5 PM Sat 72 72 N 10 3623 3495 68 Blue 29
6 PM Sat 67 67 N 10 3413 3427 0 Blue 24
7 PM Sat 64 64 N 10 3297 3427 0 Blue 21
8 PM Sat 64 64 N 10 3297 3427 0 Blue 21
9 PM Sat 64 64 N 10 3297 3427 0 Blue 21
10 PM Sat 63 63 N 10 3258 3427 0 Blue 20
11 PM Sat 63 63 N 14 3258 3427 0 Blue 20
12 Midnight Sun 62 62 N 14 3219 3427 0 Blue 19
1 AM Sun 62 62 N 14 3219 3427 0 Blue 19
2 AM Sun 63 63 N 14 3258 3427 0 Blue 20
3 AM Sun 62 62 N 14 3219 3427 0 Blue 19
4 AM Sun 61 61 N 14 3180 3427 0 Blue 18
5 AM Sun 62 62 E 3 3219 3427 0 Blue 19
6 AM Sun 61 61 E 3 3180 3427 0 Blue 18
7 AM Sun 59 59 E 3 3103 3427 0 Blue 16
8 AM Sun 64 64 E 3 3297 3427 0 Blue 21
9 AM Sun 68 69 E 3 3496 3427 0 Blue 26
10 AM Sun 72 74 E 3 3708 3579 152 Blue 31
11 AM Sun 74 77 N 8 4196 3706 279 Blue 34
12 Noon Sun 75 79 N 8 4580 3863 436 Blue 36
1 PM Sun 77 81 N 8 5002 4406 979 Blue 38
2 PM Sun 78 82 N 8 5092 4568 1141 Blue 39
3 PM Sun 80 83 N 8 5181 4730 1303 Blue 40
4 PM Sun 79 80 N 8 4743 4177 750 Blue 37
5 PM Sun 76 76 N 8 3875 3664 237 Blue 33
6 PM Sun 71 71 N 8 3581 3452 25 Blue 28
7 PM Sun 68 68 N 8 3454 3427 0 Blue 25
8 PM Sun 68 68 N 8 3454 3427 0 Blue 25
9 PM Sun 68 68 N 8 3454 3427 0 Blue 25
10 PM Sun 67 67 N 8 3413 3427 0 Blue 24
11 PM Sun 67 67 NE 9 3413 3427 0 Blue 24
12 Midnight Mon 66 66 NE 9 3374 3427 0 Blue 23
1 AM Mon 66 66 NE 9 3374 3427 0 Blue 23
2 AM Mon 67 67 NE 9 3413 3427 0 Blue 24
3 AM Mon 66 66 NE 9 3374 3427 0 Blue 23
4 AM Mon 65 65 NE 9 3335 3427 0 Blue 22
5 AM Mon 66 66 NE 9 3374 3427 0 Blue 23
6 AM Mon 65 65 NE 9 3335 3427 0 Blue 22
7 AM Mon 63 63 NE 9 3258 3427 0 Blue 20
8 AM Mon 68 68 NE 9 3454 3427 0 Blue 25
9 AM Mon 72 73 NE 9 3665 3537 110 Blue 30
10 AM Mon 76 78 NE 9 4417 3784 357 Blue 35
11 AM Mon 78 81 N 7 5002 4406 979 Blue 38
12 Noon Mon 79 83 N 7 5181 4730 1303 Blue 40
1 PM Mon 81 85 N 7 5398 5083 1656 Blue 42
2 PM Mon 82 86 N 7 6192 5173 1746 Blue 43
3 PM Mon 84 87 N 7 6459 5263 1836 Blue 44
4 PM Mon 83 84 N 7 5271 4994 1567 Blue 41
5 PM Mon 79 79 N 6 4580 3863 436 Blue 36
6 PM Mon 74 74 N 6 3708 3579 152 Blue 31
7 PM Mon 72 72 N 6 3623 3495 68 Blue 29
8 PM Mon 72 72 N 6 3623 3495 68 Blue 29
9 PM Mon 71 71 N 6 3581 3452 25 Blue 28
10 PM Mon 70 70 N 6 3539 3427 0 Blue 27
11 PM Mon 70 70 NE 8 3539 3427 0 Blue 27
12 Midnight Tue 69 69 NE 8 3496 3427 0 Blue 26
1 AM Tue 70 70 NE 8 3539 3427 0 Blue 27
2 AM Tue 70 70 NE 8 3539 3427 0 Blue 27
3 AM Tue 70 70 NE 8 3539 3427 0 Blue 27
4 AM Tue 69 69 NE 8 3496 3427 0 Blue 26
5 AM Tue 69 69 NE 8 3496 3427 0 Blue 26
6 AM Tue 68 68 NE 8 3454 3427 0 Blue 25
7 AM Tue 66 66 NE 8 3374 3427 0 Blue 23
8 AM Tue 71 71 NE 8 3581 3452 25 Blue 28
9 AM Tue 75 76 NE 8 3875 3664 237 Blue 33
10 AM Tue 79 81 NE 8 5002 4406 979 Blue 38
11 AM Tue 81 84 SW 6 5271 4994 1567 Blue 41
12 Noon Tue 82 86 SW 6 6192 5173 1746 Blue 43
1 PM Tue 84 88 SW 6 6709 5384 1957 Blue 45
2 PM Tue 85 89 SW 6 6957 5934 2507 Blue 46
3 PM Tue 87 90 SW 6 7389 6426 2999 Blue 47
4 PM Tue 85 86 SW 6 6192 5173 1746 Blue 43
5 PM Tue 81 81 SW 6 5002 4406 979 Blue 38
6 PM Tue 75 75 SW 6 3788 3621 194 Blue 32
7 PM Tue 72 72 SW 6 3623 3495 68 Blue 29
8 PM Tue 72 72 SW 6 3623 3495 68 Blue 29
9 PM Tue 71 71 SW 6 3581 3452 25 Blue 28
10 PM Tue 70 70 SW 6 3539 3427 0 Blue 27
11 PM Tue 70 70 NE 5 3539 3427 0 Blue 27
12 Midnight Wed 69 69 NE 5 3496 3427 0 Blue 26
1 AM Wed 69 69 NE 5 3496 3427 0 Blue 26
2 AM Wed 70 70 NE 5 3539 3427 0 Blue 27
3 AM Wed 69 69 NE 5 3496 3427 0 Blue 26
4 AM Wed 68 68 NE 5 3454 3427 0 Blue 25
5 AM Wed 69 69 NE 5 3496 3427 0 Blue 26
6 AM Wed 67 67 NE 5 3413 3427 0 Blue 24
7 AM Wed 65 65 NE 5 3335 3427 0 Blue 22
8 AM Wed 69 69 NE 5 3496 3427 0 Blue 26
9 AM Wed 72 73 NE 5 3665 3537 110 Blue 30
10 AM Wed 76 78 NE 5 4417 3784 357 Blue 35
11 AM Wed 78 81 S 5 5002 4406 979 Blue 38
12 Noon Wed 79 83 S 5 5181 4730 1303 Blue 40
1 PM Wed 80 84 S 5 5271 4994 1567 Blue 41
2 PM Wed 82 86 S 5 6192 5173 1746 Blue 43
3 PM Wed 83 86 S 5 6192 5173 1746 Blue 43
4 PM Wed 82 83 S 5 5181 4730 1303 Blue 40
5 PM Wed 78 78 S 5 4417 3784 357 Blue 35
6 PM Wed 72 72 S 5 3623 3495 68 Blue 29
7 PM Wed 69 69 S 5 3496 3427 0 Blue 26
8 PM Wed 69 69 S 5 3496 3427 0 Blue 26
9 PM Wed 69 69 S 5 3496 3427 0 Blue 26
10 PM Wed 68 68 S 5 3454 3427 0 Blue 25
11 PM Wed 68 68 N 5 3454 3427 0 Blue 25
12 Midnight Thu 67 67 N 5 3413 3427 0 Blue 24
1 AM Thu 67 67 N 5 3413 3427 0 Blue 24
2 AM Thu 67 67 N 5 3413 3427 0 Blue 24
3 AM Thu 67 67 N 5 3413 3427 0 Blue 24
4 AM Thu 66 66 N 5 3374 3427 0 Blue 23

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst