Detailed Predictions for: Henninger Flats
Launch Altitude (f): 3427
LZ Altitude (f): 1033
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

25 APR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 61 61 SW 3 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 62 62 SW 3 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 62 62 SW 3 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 65 66 SW 3 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 65 67 SW 3 2176 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 68 71 SW 3 2459 3427 0 Blue 2
11 AM Thu 71 77 S 6 3986 3427 0 Blue 8
12 Noon Thu 73 80 S 6 5193 3964 537 Blue 11
1 PM Thu 75 82 S 6 5828 4774 1347 Blue 13
2 PM Thu 78 84 S 6 6453 5479 2052 Blue 15
3 PM Thu 78 83 S 6 6142 5163 1736 Blue 14
4 PM Thu 76 79 S 6 4806 3549 122 Blue 10
5 PM Thu 76 77 SW 8 3986 3427 0 Blue 8
6 PM Thu 74 74 SW 8 2989 3427 0 Blue 5
7 PM Thu 69 69 SW 8 2278 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 66 66 SW 8 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 67 67 SW 8 2176 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 66 66 SW 8 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 65 65 SW 3 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 63 63 SW 3 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 63 63 SW 3 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 64 64 SW 3 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 63 63 SW 3 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 63 63 SW 3 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 62 62 E 6 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 63 63 E 6 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 63 63 E 6 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 65 66 E 6 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 65 67 E 6 2176 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 68 71 E 6 2459 3427 0 Blue 2
11 AM Fri 70 76 SW 8 3567 3427 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Fri 72 79 SW 8 4806 3549 122 Blue 10
1 PM Fri 73 80 SW 8 5193 3964 537 Blue 11
2 PM Fri 76 82 SW 8 5828 4774 1347 Blue 13
3 PM Fri 76 81 SW 8 5512 4372 945 Blue 12
4 PM Fri 74 77 SW 8 3986 3427 0 Blue 8
5 PM Fri 74 75 SW 8 3190 3427 0 Blue 6
6 PM Fri 71 71 SW 8 2459 3427 0 Blue 2
7 PM Fri 67 67 SW 8 2176 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 64 64 SW 8 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 64 64 SW 8 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 63 63 SW 8 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 62 62 S 7 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 60 60 S 7 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 60 60 S 7 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 61 61 S 7 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 60 60 S 7 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 60 60 S 7 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 59 59 S 7 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 60 60 S 7 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 60 60 S 7 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 62 62 S 7 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 62 63 S 7 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 65 67 S 7 2176 3427 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 68 73 SW 10 2787 3427 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 70 76 SW 10 3567 3427 0 Blue 7
1 PM Sat 71 77 SW 10 3986 3427 0 Blue 8
2 PM Sat 74 79 SW 10 4806 3549 122 Blue 10
3 PM Sat 74 78 SW 10 4399 3427 0 Blue 9
4 PM Sat 72 75 SW 10 3190 3427 0 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 72 73 SW 10 2787 3427 0 Blue 4
6 PM Sat 69 69 SW 10 2278 3427 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 65 65 SW 10 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 62 62 SW 10 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 62 62 SW 10 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 61 61 SW 10 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 60 60 S 6 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 58 58 S 6 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 58 58 S 6 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 59 59 S 6 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 58 58 S 6 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 58 58 S 6 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 57 57 S 6 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 58 58 S 6 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 58 58 S 6 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 60 60 S 6 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 60 61 S 6 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 62 64 S 6 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 65 69 SW 12 2278 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 66 71 SW 12 2459 3427 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sun 68 73 SW 12 2787 3427 0 Blue 4
2 PM Sun 70 75 SW 12 3190 3427 0 Blue 6
3 PM Sun 70 74 SW 12 2989 3427 0 Blue 5
4 PM Sun 68 70 SW 12 2357 3427 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sun 68 69 SW 12 2278 3427 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 66 66 SW 12 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 61 61 SW 12 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 58 58 SW 12 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 59 59 SW 12 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 58 58 SW 12 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 57 57 S 7 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 55 55 S 7 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 55 55 S 7 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 56 56 S 7 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 55 55 S 7 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 55 55 S 7 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 54 54 S 7 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 55 55 S 7 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 55 55 S 7 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 56 56 S 7 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 56 56 S 7 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 57 57 S 7 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 59 61 SW 10 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 60 62 SW 10 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 61 64 SW 10 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 62 64 SW 10 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 62 64 SW 10 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 61 62 SW 10 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 60 60 SW 10 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 59 59 SW 10 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 56 56 SW 10 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 53 53 SW 10 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 54 54 SW 10 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 53 53 SW 10 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 52 52 S 8 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 50 50 S 8 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 51 51 S 8 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 51 51 S 8 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 51 51 S 8 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 51 51 S 8 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 50 50 S 8 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 51 51 S 8 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 51 51 S 8 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 53 53 S 8 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 53 54 S 8 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 55 57 S 8 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 57 62 SW 12 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 58 64 SW 12 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 60 66 SW 12 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 62 67 SW 12 2176 3427 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 62 66 SW 12 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 61 64 SW 12 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 61 62 SW 12 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 59 59 SW 12 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 56 56 SW 12 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 54 54 SW 12 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 54 54 SW 12 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 53 53 SW 12 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 53 53 SW 7 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 51 51 SW 7 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 52 52 SW 7 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 52 52 SW 7 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 52 52 SW 7 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 52 52 SW 7 2149 3427 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst