Detailed Predictions for: Henninger Flats
Launch Altitude (f): 3427
LZ Altitude (f): 1033
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

19 JUN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 56 56 N 5 2751 3427 0 Blue 2
6 AM Tue 56 56 N 5 2751 3427 0 Blue 2
7 AM Tue 56 56 N 5 2751 3427 0 Blue 2
8 AM Tue 61 62 N 3 3257 3427 0 Blue 8
9 AM Tue 62 65 N 3 3460 3427 0 Blue 11
10 AM Tue 65 70 N 3 3772 3562 135 Blue 16
11 AM Tue 69 76 E 5 4391 4212 785 Blue 22
12 Noon Tue 72 80 E 5 4849 4445 1018 Blue 26
1 PM Tue 76 84 E 5 5662 5035 1608 Blue 30
2 PM Tue 79 87 SW 9 6366 5635 2208 Blue 33
3 PM Tue 80 86 SW 9 6136 5429 2002 Blue 32
4 PM Tue 80 84 SW 9 5662 5035 1608 Blue 30
5 PM Tue 79 81 SW 8 5053 4608 1181 Blue 27
6 PM Tue 78 79 SW 8 4738 4387 960 Blue 25
7 PM Tue 75 75 SW 8 4333 4080 653 Blue 21
8 PM Tue 73 73 NW 2 4215 3765 338 Blue 19
9 PM Tue 72 72 NW 2 4089 3665 238 Blue 18
10 PM Tue 72 72 NW 2 4089 3665 238 Blue 18
11 PM Tue 72 72 N 3 4089 3665 238 Blue 18
12 Midnight Wed 72 72 N 3 4089 3665 238 Blue 18
1 AM Wed 71 71 N 3 3931 3613 186 Blue 17
2 AM Wed 71 71 N 3 3931 3613 186 Blue 17
3 AM Wed 71 71 N 3 3931 3613 186 Blue 17
4 AM Wed 71 71 N 3 3931 3613 186 Blue 17
5 AM Wed 70 70 N 5 3772 3562 135 Blue 16
6 AM Wed 70 70 N 5 3772 3562 135 Blue 16
7 AM Wed 70 70 N 5 3772 3562 135 Blue 16
8 AM Wed 74 75 NE 2 4333 4080 653 Blue 21
9 AM Wed 75 78 NE 2 4622 4329 902 Blue 24
10 AM Wed 77 82 NE 2 5251 4730 1303 Blue 28
11 AM Wed 81 88 SE 2 6595 5878 2451 Blue 34
12 Noon Wed 84 92 SE 2 7466 6790 3363 Blue 38
1 PM Wed 86 94 SE 2 7885 7222 3795 Blue 40
2 PM Wed 89 97 SW 10 8509 7847 4420 Blue 43
3 PM Wed 90 96 SW 10 8302 7640 4213 Blue 42
4 PM Wed 89 93 SW 10 7676 7013 3586 Blue 39
5 PM Wed 88 90 SW 9 7045 6336 2909 Blue 36
6 PM Wed 85 86 SW 9 6136 5429 2002 Blue 32
7 PM Wed 80 80 SW 9 4849 4445 1018 Blue 26
8 PM Wed 76 76 SW 8 4391 4212 785 Blue 22
9 PM Wed 73 73 SW 8 4215 3765 338 Blue 19
10 PM Wed 73 73 SW 8 4215 3765 338 Blue 19
11 PM Wed 74 74 N 2 4274 3922 495 Blue 20
12 Midnight Thu 73 73 N 2 4215 3765 338 Blue 19
1 AM Thu 71 71 N 2 3931 3613 186 Blue 17
2 AM Thu 71 71 N 3 3931 3613 186 Blue 17
3 AM Thu 71 71 N 3 3931 3613 186 Blue 17
4 AM Thu 70 70 N 3 3772 3562 135 Blue 16
5 AM Thu 70 70 N 2 3772 3562 135 Blue 16
6 AM Thu 69 69 N 2 3668 3510 83 Blue 15
7 AM Thu 69 69 N 2 3668 3510 83 Blue 15
8 AM Thu 72 73 NE 2 4215 3765 338 Blue 19
9 AM Thu 73 76 NE 2 4391 4212 785 Blue 22
10 AM Thu 75 80 NE 2 4849 4445 1018 Blue 26
11 AM Thu 77 84 SW 2 5662 5035 1608 Blue 30
12 Noon Thu 79 87 SW 2 6366 5635 2208 Blue 33
1 PM Thu 81 90 SW 2 7045 6336 2909 Blue 36
2 PM Thu 83 91 SW 9 7256 6564 3137 Blue 37
3 PM Thu 84 91 SW 9 7256 6564 3137 Blue 37
4 PM Thu 83 88 SW 9 6595 5878 2451 Blue 34
5 PM Thu 82 85 SW 9 5905 5232 1805 Blue 31
6 PM Thu 80 81 SW 9 5053 4608 1181 Blue 27
7 PM Thu 76 76 SW 9 4391 4212 785 Blue 22
8 PM Thu 73 73 SW 9 4215 3765 338 Blue 19
9 PM Thu 71 71 SW 9 3931 3613 186 Blue 17
10 PM Thu 71 71 SW 9 3931 3613 186 Blue 17
11 PM Thu 71 71 SW 3 3931 3613 186 Blue 17
12 Midnight Fri 71 71 SW 3 3931 3613 186 Blue 17
1 AM Fri 69 69 SW 3 3668 3510 83 Blue 15
2 AM Fri 69 69 SW 3 3668 3510 83 Blue 15
3 AM Fri 69 69 SW 3 3668 3510 83 Blue 15
4 AM Fri 68 68 SW 3 3616 3458 31 Blue 14
5 AM Fri 67 67 N 5 3564 3427 0 Blue 13
6 AM Fri 67 67 N 5 3564 3427 0 Blue 13
7 AM Fri 67 67 N 5 3564 3427 0 Blue 13
8 AM Fri 71 72 N 5 4089 3665 238 Blue 18
9 AM Fri 71 74 N 5 4274 3922 495 Blue 20
10 AM Fri 73 78 N 5 4622 4329 902 Blue 24
11 AM Fri 76 83 SW 10 5449 4837 1410 Blue 29
12 Noon Fri 79 87 SW 10 6366 5635 2208 Blue 33
1 PM Fri 81 90 SW 10 7045 6336 2909 Blue 36
2 PM Fri 83 91 SW 10 7256 6564 3137 Blue 37
3 PM Fri 84 91 SW 10 7256 6564 3137 Blue 37
4 PM Fri 83 88 SW 10 6595 5878 2451 Blue 34
5 PM Fri 82 85 SW 9 5905 5232 1805 Blue 31
6 PM Fri 79 80 SW 9 4849 4445 1018 Blue 26
7 PM Fri 75 75 SW 9 4333 4080 653 Blue 21
8 PM Fri 71 71 SW 9 3931 3613 186 Blue 17
9 PM Fri 69 69 SW 9 3668 3510 83 Blue 15
10 PM Fri 69 69 SW 9 3668 3510 83 Blue 15
11 PM Fri 69 69 S 2 3668 3510 83 Blue 15
12 Midnight Sat 69 69 S 2 3668 3510 83 Blue 15
1 AM Sat 67 67 S 2 3564 3427 0 Blue 13
2 AM Sat 67 67 S 2 3564 3427 0 Blue 13
3 AM Sat 67 67 S 2 3564 3427 0 Blue 13
4 AM Sat 66 66 S 2 3512 3427 0 Blue 12
5 AM Sat 65 65 SE 2 3460 3427 0 Blue 11
6 AM Sat 65 65 SE 2 3460 3427 0 Blue 11
7 AM Sat 65 65 SE 2 3460 3427 0 Blue 11
8 AM Sat 68 69 SE 2 3668 3510 83 Blue 15
9 AM Sat 69 72 SE 2 4089 3665 238 Blue 18
10 AM Sat 71 76 SE 2 4391 4212 785 Blue 22
11 AM Sat 73 80 SW 13 4849 4445 1018 Blue 26
12 Noon Sat 75 83 SW 13 5449 4837 1410 Blue 29
1 PM Sat 77 85 SW 13 5905 5232 1805 Blue 31
2 PM Sat 79 87 SW 13 6366 5635 2208 Blue 33
3 PM Sat 80 86 SW 13 6136 5429 2002 Blue 32
4 PM Sat 79 83 SW 13 5449 4837 1410 Blue 29
5 PM Sat 78 80 SW 12 4849 4445 1018 Blue 26
6 PM Sat 76 77 SW 12 4449 4270 843 Blue 23
7 PM Sat 73 73 SW 12 4215 3765 338 Blue 19
8 PM Sat 70 70 SW 12 3772 3562 135 Blue 16
9 PM Sat 68 68 SW 12 3616 3458 31 Blue 14
10 PM Sat 68 68 SW 12 3616 3458 31 Blue 14
11 PM Sat 68 68 S 5 3616 3458 31 Blue 14
12 Midnight Sun 68 68 S 5 3616 3458 31 Blue 14
1 AM Sun 67 67 S 5 3564 3427 0 Blue 13
2 AM Sun 67 67 S 5 3564 3427 0 Blue 13
3 AM Sun 67 67 S 5 3564 3427 0 Blue 13
4 AM Sun 66 66 S 5 3512 3427 0 Blue 12
5 AM Sun 65 65 SE 3 3460 3427 0 Blue 11
6 AM Sun 65 65 SE 3 3460 3427 0 Blue 11
7 AM Sun 65 65 SE 3 3460 3427 0 Blue 11
8 AM Sun 67 68 SE 3 3616 3458 31 Blue 14
9 AM Sun 67 70 SE 3 3772 3562 135 Blue 16
10 AM Sun 69 74 SE 3 4274 3922 495 Blue 20
11 AM Sun 70 77 S 10 4449 4270 843 Blue 23
12 Noon Sun 72 80 S 10 4849 4445 1018 Blue 26
1 PM Sun 73 81 S 10 5053 4608 1181 Blue 27
2 PM Sun 75 83 S 10 5449 4837 1410 Blue 29
3 PM Sun 75 81 S 10 5053 4608 1181 Blue 27
4 PM Sun 74 78 S 10 4622 4329 902 Blue 24
5 PM Sun 73 75 S 10 4333 4080 653 Blue 21
6 PM Sun 71 72 S 10 4089 3665 238 Blue 18
7 PM Sun 68 68 S 10 3616 3458 31 Blue 14
8 PM Sun 65 65 S 10 3460 3427 0 Blue 11
9 PM Sun 63 63 S 10 3356 3427 0 Blue 9
10 PM Sun 63 63 S 10 3356 3427 0 Blue 9
11 PM Sun 63 63 S 3 3356 3427 0 Blue 9
12 Midnight Mon 63 63 S 3 3356 3427 0 Blue 9
1 AM Mon 62 62 S 3 3257 3427 0 Blue 8
2 AM Mon 62 62 S 3 3257 3427 0 Blue 8
3 AM Mon 62 62 S 3 3257 3427 0 Blue 8
4 AM Mon 61 61 S 3 3153 3427 0 Blue 7

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst