Detailed Predictions for: Horse Canyon
Launch Altitude (f): 4540
LZ Altitude (f): 3300
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

16 FEB 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sat 34 34 W 24 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 34 34 W 24 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 34 34 W 23 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 35 35 W 18 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 39 39 W 17 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 42 42 W 16 4667 4540 0 White 2
10 AM Sat 44 45 W 18 5329 4878 338 White 5
11 AM Sat 45 46 W 18 5547 5547 1007 White 6
12 Noon Sat 46 47 W 18 5765 5765 1225 White 6
1 PM Sat 46 47 W 20 5765 5765 1225 White 6
2 PM Sat 46 46 W 21 5547 5547 1007 White 6
3 PM Sat 45 45 W 22 5329 4878 338 White 5
4 PM Sat 44 44 W 22 5110 4569 29 White 4
5 PM Sat 42 42 W 22 4667 4540 0 White 2
6 PM Sat 39 39 W 21 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 38 38 W 20 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 37 37 W 20 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 36 36 W 20 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 36 36 W 16 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 35 35 W 17 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 34 34 W 17 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 34 34 W 16 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 35 35 W 18 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 34 34 W 17 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 34 34 W 23 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 34 34 W 23 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 34 34 W 22 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 35 35 W 21 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 37 37 W 21 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 39 39 W 22 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 41 41 W 22 4442 4540 0 White 1
11 AM Sun 41 41 W 21 4442 4540 0 White 1
12 Noon Sun 42 42 W 25 4667 4540 0 White 2
1 PM Sun 42 42 W 26 4667 4540 0 White 2
2 PM Sun 42 42 W 29 4667 4540 0 White 2
3 PM Sun 41 41 W 24 4442 4540 0 White 1
4 PM Sun 40 40 W 28 3851 4540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 38 38 W 25 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 35 35 W 25 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 34 34 W 28 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 32 32 W 26 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 31 31 W 24 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 31 31 W 24 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 30 30 W 21 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 30 30 W 22 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 30 30 W 17 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 30 30 W 17 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 29 29 W 17 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 29 29 NW 13 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 29 29 NW 13 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 29 29 NW 13 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 30 30 NW 8 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 35 35 NW 8 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 37 38 NW 8 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 40 42 W 7 4667 4540 0 White 2
11 AM Mon 41 44 W 7 5110 4569 29 White 4
12 Noon Mon 42 45 W 7 5329 4878 338 White 5
1 PM Mon 42 45 W 8 5329 4878 338 White 5
2 PM Mon 42 44 W 8 5110 4569 29 White 4
3 PM Mon 40 41 W 8 4442 4540 0 White 1
4 PM Mon 39 39 NW 10 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 38 38 NW 10 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 34 34 NW 10 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 33 33 NW 14 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 31 31 NW 14 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 30 30 NW 14 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 30 30 N 13 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 29 29 N 13 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 28 28 N 13 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 29 29 N 13 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 29 29 N 13 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 28 28 N 13 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 28 28 N 8 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 28 28 N 8 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 29 29 N 8 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 29 29 N 6 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 36 36 N 6 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 40 42 N 6 4667 4540 0 White 2
10 AM Tue 43 46 NW 8 5547 5547 1007 White 6
11 AM Tue 44 48 NW 8 5981 5981 1441 White 7
12 Noon Tue 46 50 NW 8 6408 6408 1868 White 9
1 PM Tue 46 50 W 10 6408 6408 1868 White 9
2 PM Tue 46 49 W 10 6195 6195 1655 White 8
3 PM Tue 44 45 W 10 5329 4878 338 White 5
4 PM Tue 43 43 W 8 4892 4540 0 White 3
5 PM Tue 41 41 W 8 4442 4540 0 White 1
6 PM Tue 37 37 W 8 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 35 35 NW 7 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 33 33 NW 7 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 32 32 NW 7 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 31 31 N 7 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 31 31 N 7 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 30 30 N 7 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 30 30 NE 13 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 30 30 NE 13 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 29 29 NE 13 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 29 29 NE 10 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 29 29 NE 10 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 30 30 NE 10 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 30 30 NE 8 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 37 37 NE 8 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 41 42 NE 8 4667 4540 0 White 2
10 AM Wed 45 47 SW 5 5765 5765 1225 White 6
11 AM Wed 46 49 SW 5 6195 6195 1655 White 8
12 Noon Wed 48 51 SW 5 6623 6623 2083 White 10
1 PM Wed 48 51 NW 7 6623 6623 2083 White 10
2 PM Wed 48 50 NW 7 6408 6408 1868 White 9
3 PM Wed 46 47 NW 7 5765 5765 1225 White 6
4 PM Wed 45 45 NW 8 5329 4878 338 White 5
5 PM Wed 43 43 NW 8 4892 4540 0 White 3
6 PM Wed 39 39 NW 8 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 38 38 NW 14 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 36 36 NW 14 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 35 35 NW 14 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 34 34 N 12 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 34 34 N 12 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 33 33 N 12 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 33 33 NW 9 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 33 33 NW 9 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 32 32 NW 9 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 32 32 W 8 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 32 32 W 8 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 32 32 W 8 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 33 33 W 6 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 38 38 W 6 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 40 40 W 6 3851 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 43 43 W 7 4892 4540 0 White 3
11 AM Thu 44 44 W 7 5110 4569 29 White 4
12 Noon Thu 45 45 W 7 5329 4878 338 White 5
1 PM Thu 45 45 NE 7 5329 4878 338 White 5
2 PM Thu 45 45 NE 7 5329 4878 338 White 5
3 PM Thu 43 43 NE 7 4892 4540 0 White 3
4 PM Thu 42 42 NE 8 4667 4540 0 White 2
5 PM Thu 41 41 NE 8 4442 4540 0 White 1
6 PM Thu 37 37 NE 8 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 36 36 NE 13 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 34 34 NE 13 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 33 33 NE 13 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 33 33 NE 15 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 32 32 NE 15 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 32 32 NE 15 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 32 32 NE 16 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 32 32 NE 16 3179 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 31 31 NE 16 3179 4540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst