Detailed Predictions for: Horse Canyon
Launch Altitude (f): 4540
LZ Altitude (f): 3300
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

25 NOV 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 47 47 E 5 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 46 46 E 5 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 45 45 NE 3 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 46 46 E 3 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 50 50 E 2 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 55 56 SE 2 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 60 62 S 6 5376 4540 0 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 62 65 SW 7 7266 5291 751 Blue 4
12 Noon Wed 62 65 SW 8 7266 5291 751 Blue 4
1 PM Wed 63 65 SW 8 7266 5291 751 Blue 4
2 PM Wed 62 63 W 8 6631 4540 0 Blue 3
3 PM Wed 61 61 W 8 4400 4540 0 Blue 1
4 PM Wed 58 58 W 8 3608 4540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 56 56 NW 7 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 53 53 NW 5 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 50 50 NW 5 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 48 48 NW 5 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 47 47 NW 5 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 46 46 NW 6 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 46 46 NW 6 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 45 45 NW 6 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 44 44 NW 7 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 44 44 NW 7 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 43 43 N 7 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 43 43 N 8 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 42 42 N 8 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 42 42 N 7 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 44 44 N 7 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 48 48 NE 6 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 52 53 E 5 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 56 58 E 3 3608 4540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 58 60 E 5 3907 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 58 61 E 6 4400 4540 0 Blue 1
1 PM Thu 58 60 E 8 3907 4540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 56 57 E 12 3458 4540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 54 54 NE 14 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 52 52 NE 17 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 49 49 NE 20 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 47 47 NE 21 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 45 45 NE 22 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 44 44 NE 22 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 44 44 NE 22 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 43 43 NE 20 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 43 43 NE 17 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 42 42 NE 14 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 41 41 NE 13 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 41 41 NE 13 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 41 41 NE 14 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 41 41 NE 16 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 42 42 NE 20 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 43 43 NE 23 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 45 45 NE 26 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 48 48 NE 28 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 51 52 NE 29 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 54 56 NE 28 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 57 60 NE 25 3907 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 58 61 NE 23 4400 4540 0 Blue 1
1 PM Fri 59 61 NE 20 4400 4540 0 Blue 1
2 PM Fri 58 59 NE 17 3758 4540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 58 58 NE 16 3608 4540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 55 55 NE 14 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 50 50 NE 12 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 45 45 NE 9 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 42 42 NE 8 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 43 43 NE 10 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 46 46 NE 14 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 50 50 NE 17 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 50 50 NE 18 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 50 50 NE 18 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 49 49 NE 17 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 48 48 NE 17 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 48 48 NE 16 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 48 48 NE 16 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 47 47 NE 16 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 47 47 NE 16 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 48 48 NE 15 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 51 51 NE 15 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 56 57 NE 15 3458 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 60 62 NE 15 5376 4540 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 63 66 NE 15 7443 6514 1974 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 64 67 NE 15 7621 7066 2526 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 64 66 NE 13 7443 6514 1974 Blue 5
2 PM Sat 65 66 NE 13 7443 6514 1974 Blue 5
3 PM Sat 63 63 NE 13 6631 4540 0 Blue 3
4 PM Sat 60 60 NE 13 3907 4540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 56 56 NE 13 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 52 52 NE 13 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 49 49 NE 12 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 48 48 NE 12 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 47 47 NE 12 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 47 47 NE 12 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 46 46 NE 12 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 45 45 NE 12 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 45 45 NE 10 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 45 45 NE 10 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 46 46 NE 10 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 46 46 NE 10 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 46 46 NE 10 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 46 46 NE 10 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 48 48 NE 10 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 52 52 NE 10 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 57 58 NE 10 3608 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 62 64 NE 7 7088 4540 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 66 68 NE 7 7824 7243 2703 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 67 69 NE 7 8107 7420 2880 Blue 8
1 PM Sun 67 69 N 7 8107 7420 2880 Blue 8
2 PM Sun 68 69 N 7 8107 7420 2880 Blue 8
3 PM Sun 67 67 N 7 7621 7066 2526 Blue 6
4 PM Sun 65 65 NE 7 7266 5291 751 Blue 4
5 PM Sun 62 62 NE 7 5376 4540 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sun 58 58 NE 7 3608 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 56 56 NE 9 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 54 54 NE 9 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 54 54 NE 9 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 53 53 NE 9 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 52 52 NE 9 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 50 50 NE 9 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 48 48 NE 10 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 47 47 NE 10 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 47 47 NE 10 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 47 47 NE 10 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 47 47 NE 10 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 48 48 NE 10 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 50 50 NE 9 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 55 55 NE 9 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 61 61 NE 9 4400 4540 0 Blue 1
10 AM Mon 66 67 E 7 7621 7066 2526 Blue 6
11 AM Mon 68 69 E 7 8107 7420 2880 Blue 8
12 Noon Mon 68 69 E 7 8107 7420 2880 Blue 8
1 PM Mon 69 70 S 8 8388 7597 3057 Blue 9
2 PM Mon 68 69 S 8 8107 7420 2880 Blue 8
3 PM Mon 66 66 S 8 7443 6514 1974 Blue 5
4 PM Mon 64 64 NW 8 7088 4540 0 Blue 3
5 PM Mon 62 62 NW 8 5376 4540 0 Blue 2
6 PM Mon 59 59 NW 8 3758 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 56 56 NW 3 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 54 54 NW 3 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 52 52 NW 3 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 52 52 NW 3 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 53 53 NW 3 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 55 55 NW 3 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 55 55 NW 5 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 53 53 NW 5 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 50 50 NW 5 3366 4540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst