Detailed Predictions for: Horse Canyon
Launch Altitude (f): 4540
LZ Altitude (f): 3300
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 AUG 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 64 64 N 7 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 63 63 N 7 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 64 64 N 6 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 72 73 NW 3 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 78 80 W 3 4541 4540 0 Blue 4
10 AM Sat 82 86 W 5 7522 5445 905 Blue 10
11 AM Sat 85 89 W 7 8696 7469 2929 Blue 13
12 Noon Sat 86 90 W 7 8919 7873 3333 Blue 14
1 PM Sat 87 92 W 8 10242 8659 4119 Blue 16
2 PM Sat 86 90 W 12 8919 7873 3333 Blue 14
3 PM Sat 85 88 W 12 8332 6573 2033 Blue 12
4 PM Sat 85 87 W 12 7930 5698 1158 Blue 11
5 PM Sat 84 86 NW 12 7522 5445 905 Blue 10
6 PM Sat 82 82 NW 12 5205 4540 0 Blue 6
7 PM Sat 78 78 NW 12 3880 4540 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 75 75 NW 9 3357 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 73 73 NW 9 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 71 71 NW 9 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 69 69 NW 10 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 68 68 NW 9 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 66 66 NW 9 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 65 65 N 9 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 64 64 N 10 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 64 64 N 9 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 64 64 N 6 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 63 63 N 5 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 65 65 N 3 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 73 74 E 1 3288 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 80 82 SE 1 5205 4540 0 Blue 6
10 AM Sun 84 88 S 2 8332 6573 2033 Blue 12
11 AM Sun 88 93 S 6 10710 8880 4340 Blue 17
12 Noon Sun 90 96 S 6 11861 10631 6091 White 20
1 PM Sun 90 96 SW 6 11861 10631 6091 White 20
2 PM Sun 90 96 W 8 11861 10631 6091 White 20
3 PM Sun 88 93 W 9 10710 8880 4340 Blue 17
4 PM Sun 88 91 W 9 9140 8271 3731 Blue 15
5 PM Sun 87 89 W 9 8696 7469 2929 Blue 13
6 PM Sun 84 84 W 9 5716 4874 334 Blue 8
7 PM Sun 81 81 NW 8 4890 4540 0 Blue 5
8 PM Sun 78 78 NW 5 3880 4540 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sun 75 75 NW 3 3357 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 72 72 NW 5 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 71 71 NW 5 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 69 69 NW 5 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 68 68 NW 5 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 67 67 N 6 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 65 65 N 6 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 65 65 N 6 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 65 65 N 5 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 64 64 N 2 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 66 66 N 2 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 73 73 S 2 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 80 82 S 2 5205 4540 0 Blue 6
10 AM Mon 84 87 S 3 7930 5698 1158 Blue 11
11 AM Mon 87 92 SW 7 10242 8659 4119 Blue 16
12 Noon Mon 89 95 SW 8 11652 10119 5579 White 19
1 PM Mon 89 95 W 9 11652 10119 5579 White 19
2 PM Mon 90 95 W 12 11652 10119 5579 White 19
3 PM Mon 87 91 W 10 9140 8271 3731 Blue 15
4 PM Mon 87 90 W 10 8919 7873 3333 Blue 14
5 PM Mon 86 87 W 9 7930 5698 1158 Blue 11
6 PM Mon 83 83 W 10 5461 4540 0 Blue 7
7 PM Mon 80 80 W 10 4541 4540 0 Blue 4
8 PM Mon 76 76 NW 5 3471 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 74 74 NW 5 3288 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 72 72 NW 5 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 70 70 NW 5 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 68 68 NW 5 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 67 67 NW 5 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 66 66 NW 6 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 64 64 NW 6 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 64 64 NW 6 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 64 64 N 3 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 63 63 N 3 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 65 65 N 3 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 73 73 SE 6 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 80 82 SE 6 5205 4540 0 Blue 6
10 AM Tue 85 89 SE 6 8696 7469 2929 Blue 13
11 AM Tue 88 92 S 8 10242 8659 4119 Blue 16
12 Noon Tue 90 94 S 8 11443 9100 4560 White 18
1 PM Tue 91 96 S 8 11861 10631 6091 White 20
2 PM Tue 91 95 SW 9 11652 10119 5579 White 19
3 PM Tue 89 92 SW 9 10242 8659 4119 Blue 16
4 PM Tue 88 90 SW 9 8919 7873 3333 Blue 14
5 PM Tue 87 88 W 13 8332 6573 2033 Blue 12
6 PM Tue 85 85 W 13 6690 5190 650 Blue 9
7 PM Tue 81 81 W 13 4890 4540 0 Blue 5
8 PM Tue 78 78 NW 5 3880 4540 0 Blue 2
9 PM Tue 75 75 NW 5 3357 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 73 73 NW 5 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 71 71 NW 3 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 69 69 NW 3 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 68 68 NW 3 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 67 67 N 6 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 65 65 N 6 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 65 65 N 6 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 65 65 N 6 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 64 64 N 6 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 66 66 N 6 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 73 73 E 7 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 80 82 E 7 5205 4540 0 Blue 6
10 AM Wed 84 87 E 7 7930 5698 1158 Blue 11
11 AM Wed 87 89 SE 10 8696 7469 2929 Blue 13
12 Noon Wed 89 92 SE 10 10242 8659 4119 Blue 16
1 PM Wed 89 92 SE 10 10242 8659 4119 Blue 16
2 PM Wed 90 93 SW 7 10710 8880 4340 Blue 17
3 PM Wed 87 89 SW 7 8696 7469 2929 Blue 13
4 PM Wed 87 88 SW 7 8332 6573 2033 Blue 12
5 PM Wed 86 86 NW 13 7522 5445 905 Blue 10
6 PM Wed 84 84 NW 13 5716 4874 334 Blue 8
7 PM Wed 80 80 NW 13 4541 4540 0 Blue 4
8 PM Wed 77 77 NW 6 3676 4540 0 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 74 74 NW 6 3288 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 72 72 NW 6 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 70 70 NW 3 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 69 69 NW 3 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 67 67 NW 3 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 66 66 NW 6 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 65 65 NW 6 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 64 64 NW 6 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 64 64 NW 7 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 64 64 NW 7 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 65 65 NW 7 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 72 72 NW 3 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 79 81 NW 3 4890 4540 0 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 83 87 NW 3 7930 5698 1158 Blue 11
11 AM Thu 86 90 SW 9 8919 7873 3333 Blue 14
12 Noon Thu 87 92 SW 9 10242 8659 4119 Blue 16
1 PM Thu 88 93 SW 9 10710 8880 4340 Blue 17
2 PM Thu 88 92 W 14 10242 8659 4119 Blue 16
3 PM Thu 86 90 W 14 8919 7873 3333 Blue 14
4 PM Thu 86 88 W 14 8332 6573 2033 Blue 12
5 PM Thu 84 85 W 14 6690 5190 650 Blue 9
6 PM Thu 82 82 W 14 5205 4540 0 Blue 6
7 PM Thu 78 78 W 14 3880 4540 0 Blue 2
8 PM Thu 75 75 NW 8 3357 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 72 72 NW 8 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 70 70 NW 8 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 68 68 NW 6 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 67 67 NW 6 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 65 65 NW 6 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 64 64 NW 6 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 63 63 NW 6 3245 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 62 62 NW 6 3245 4540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst