Detailed Predictions for: Horse Canyon
Launch Altitude (f): 4540
LZ Altitude (f): 3300
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

16 OCT 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 44 44 NE 21 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 44 44 NE 22 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 45 45 NE 23 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 47 47 NE 24 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 50 51 NE 23 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 55 57 NE 23 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 59 63 NE 22 6959 4540 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Tue 62 67 NE 21 8710 7722 3182 Blue 6
1 PM Tue 64 69 NE 18 9220 8410 3870 Blue 8
2 PM Tue 65 69 NE 16 9220 8410 3870 Blue 8
3 PM Tue 65 68 NE 15 8966 8154 3614 Blue 7
4 PM Tue 66 67 NE 14 8710 7722 3182 Blue 6
5 PM Tue 64 64 NE 12 7843 4867 327 Blue 3
6 PM Tue 60 60 NE 10 4160 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 55 55 NE 9 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 50 50 NE 8 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 48 48 NE 7 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 47 47 NE 7 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 47 47 NE 8 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 47 47 NE 8 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 47 47 NE 8 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 47 47 NE 10 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 47 47 NE 12 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 47 47 NE 16 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 47 47 NE 17 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 48 48 NE 17 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 49 49 NE 16 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 52 52 NE 17 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 56 57 NE 20 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 60 62 NE 20 5979 4540 0 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 64 67 NE 21 8710 7722 3182 Blue 6
12 Noon Wed 66 70 NE 21 9473 8665 4125 Blue 9
1 PM Wed 68 72 NE 20 9976 9172 4632 Blue 11
2 PM Wed 67 71 NE 18 9725 8919 4379 Blue 10
3 PM Wed 67 70 NE 18 9473 8665 4125 Blue 9
4 PM Wed 66 67 NE 18 8710 7722 3182 Blue 6
5 PM Wed 64 64 NE 13 7843 4867 327 Blue 3
6 PM Wed 62 62 NE 13 5979 4540 0 Blue 1
7 PM Wed 60 60 NE 13 4160 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 57 57 NE 10 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 54 54 NE 10 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 52 52 NE 10 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 50 50 NE 12 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 49 49 NE 10 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 49 49 NE 12 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 49 49 NE 13 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 50 50 NE 13 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 51 51 NE 13 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 51 51 NE 14 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 51 51 NE 16 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 51 51 NE 16 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 52 52 NE 21 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 55 56 NE 21 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 59 61 NE 21 4902 4540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 63 67 NE 22 8710 7722 3182 Blue 6
12 Noon Thu 66 70 NE 22 9473 8665 4125 Blue 9
1 PM Thu 68 72 NE 22 9976 9172 4632 Blue 11
2 PM Thu 70 74 NE 18 10380 9673 5133 Blue 13
3 PM Thu 69 72 NE 18 9976 9172 4632 Blue 11
4 PM Thu 70 71 NE 18 9725 8919 4379 Blue 10
5 PM Thu 68 68 NE 17 8966 8154 3614 Blue 7
6 PM Thu 64 64 NE 17 7843 4867 327 Blue 3
7 PM Thu 61 61 NE 17 4902 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 58 58 NE 16 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 56 56 NE 15 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 55 55 NE 13 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 55 55 NE 13 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 55 55 NE 15 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 55 55 NE 18 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 54 54 NE 21 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 53 53 NE 22 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 52 52 NE 21 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 52 52 NE 20 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 52 52 NE 20 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 54 54 NE 20 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 56 56 NE 20 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 59 60 NE 20 4160 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 63 65 NE 20 8194 5894 1354 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 67 71 NE 23 9725 8919 4379 Blue 10
12 Noon Fri 70 74 NE 23 10380 9673 5133 Blue 13
1 PM Fri 72 76 NE 23 10726 10167 5627 Blue 15
2 PM Fri 73 77 NE 18 11147 10340 5800 Blue 16
3 PM Fri 73 76 NE 18 10726 10167 5627 Blue 15
4 PM Fri 72 73 NE 18 10207 9423 4883 Blue 12
5 PM Fri 71 71 NE 17 9725 8919 4379 Blue 10
6 PM Fri 68 68 NE 17 8966 8154 3614 Blue 7
7 PM Fri 64 64 NE 17 7843 4867 327 Blue 3
8 PM Fri 62 62 NE 13 5979 4540 0 Blue 1
9 PM Fri 60 60 NE 13 4160 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 59 59 NE 13 3369 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 59 59 NE 12 3369 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 58 58 NE 12 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 58 58 NE 12 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 57 57 NE 17 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 57 57 NE 17 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 56 56 NE 17 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 55 55 NE 15 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 54 54 NE 15 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 54 54 NE 15 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 56 56 NE 17 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 60 61 NE 17 4902 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 65 67 NE 17 8710 7722 3182 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 69 72 NE 17 9976 9172 4632 Blue 11
12 Noon Sat 72 76 NE 17 10726 10167 5627 Blue 15
1 PM Sat 73 77 NE 17 11147 10340 5800 Blue 16
2 PM Sat 74 77 NE 15 11147 10340 5800 Blue 16
3 PM Sat 74 76 NE 15 10726 10167 5627 Blue 15
4 PM Sat 74 75 NE 15 10553 9922 5382 Blue 14
5 PM Sat 73 73 NE 14 10207 9423 4883 Blue 12
6 PM Sat 71 71 NE 14 9725 8919 4379 Blue 10
7 PM Sat 68 68 NE 14 8966 8154 3614 Blue 7
8 PM Sat 64 64 NE 12 7843 4867 327 Blue 3
9 PM Sat 62 62 NE 12 5979 4540 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sat 61 61 NE 12 4902 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 60 60 NE 7 4160 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 59 59 NE 7 3369 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 58 58 NE 7 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 57 57 NE 10 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 56 56 NE 10 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 56 56 NE 10 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 55 55 NE 13 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 54 54 NE 13 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 54 54 NE 13 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 55 55 NE 17 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 58 59 NE 17 3369 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 62 64 NE 17 7843 4867 327 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 66 68 NE 14 8966 8154 3614 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 69 72 NE 14 9976 9172 4632 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 71 74 NE 14 10380 9673 5133 Blue 13
2 PM Sun 72 74 NE 12 10380 9673 5133 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 73 75 NE 12 10553 9922 5382 Blue 14
4 PM Sun 73 74 NE 12 10380 9673 5133 Blue 13
5 PM Sun 71 71 NE 9 9725 8919 4379 Blue 10
6 PM Sun 68 68 NE 9 8966 8154 3614 Blue 7
7 PM Sun 65 65 NE 9 8194 5894 1354 Blue 4
8 PM Sun 61 61 NE 8 4902 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 59 59 NE 8 3369 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 58 58 NE 8 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 57 57 NE 7 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 56 56 NE 7 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 56 56 NE 7 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 55 55 NE 12 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 54 54 NE 12 2631 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 54 54 NE 12 2631 4540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst