Detailed Predictions for: Horse Canyon
Launch Altitude (f): 4540
LZ Altitude (f): 3300
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

26 APR 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 48 48 N 9 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 50 50 N 9 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 55 55 NW 9 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 60 61 NW 8 3574 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 64 66 NW 8 4163 4540 0 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 68 72 W 8 6259 4852 312 Blue 11
11 AM Thu 71 76 W 9 7061 6471 1931 Blue 15
12 Noon Thu 73 79 W 10 8212 7031 2491 Blue 18
1 PM Thu 74 80 W 10 8677 7290 2750 Blue 19
2 PM Thu 73 79 W 12 8212 7031 2491 Blue 18
3 PM Thu 74 78 W 12 7742 6835 2295 Blue 17
4 PM Thu 72 75 W 12 6850 6238 1698 Blue 14
5 PM Thu 69 70 W 12 5133 4540 0 Blue 9
6 PM Thu 65 65 NW 10 4055 4540 0 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 59 59 NW 9 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 55 55 NW 8 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 53 53 NW 8 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 52 52 NW 8 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 51 51 NW 9 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 50 50 NW 9 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 49 49 NW 9 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 48 48 NW 9 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 47 47 NW 10 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 47 47 NW 10 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 48 48 NW 10 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 50 50 N 10 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 54 54 NW 10 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 59 60 NW 10 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 63 66 NW 10 4163 4540 0 Blue 5
10 AM Fri 67 71 NW 9 5387 4540 0 Blue 10
11 AM Fri 70 77 W 10 7322 6701 2161 Blue 16
12 Noon Fri 72 80 W 12 8677 7290 2750 Blue 19
1 PM Fri 71 79 W 12 8212 7031 2491 Blue 18
2 PM Fri 72 79 W 13 8212 7031 2491 Blue 18
3 PM Fri 71 76 W 14 7061 6471 1931 Blue 15
4 PM Fri 69 72 W 14 6259 4852 312 Blue 11
5 PM Fri 66 67 W 14 4271 4540 0 Blue 6
6 PM Fri 61 61 NW 13 3574 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 56 56 NW 12 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 51 51 NW 10 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 49 49 NW 10 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 49 49 NW 10 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 49 49 NW 10 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 49 49 NW 10 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 48 48 NW 12 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 47 47 NW 12 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 46 46 N 10 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 45 45 N 10 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 45 45 N 9 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 47 47 NW 9 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 51 51 NW 9 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 55 56 NW 10 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 59 62 NW 10 3752 4540 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 62 67 NW 12 4271 4540 0 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 64 70 W 13 5133 4540 0 Blue 9
12 Noon Sat 66 73 W 13 6495 5119 579 Blue 12
1 PM Sat 67 74 W 14 6715 5371 831 Blue 13
2 PM Sat 67 73 W 15 6495 5119 579 Blue 12
3 PM Sat 68 73 W 15 6495 5119 579 Blue 12
4 PM Sat 67 70 W 15 5133 4540 0 Blue 9
5 PM Sat 64 65 W 15 4055 4540 0 Blue 4
6 PM Sat 60 60 W 14 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 55 55 W 13 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 51 51 W 12 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 49 49 NW 12 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 48 48 NW 12 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 48 48 NW 12 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 47 47 NW 10 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 46 46 NW 9 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 45 45 NW 8 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 43 43 NW 7 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 42 42 NW 6 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 42 42 NW 5 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 45 45 NW 5 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 49 49 NW 5 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 53 54 NW 10 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 57 60 NW 10 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 61 65 NW 10 4055 4540 0 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 64 70 W 14 5133 4540 0 Blue 9
12 Noon Sun 66 73 W 14 6495 5119 579 Blue 12
1 PM Sun 67 74 W 14 6715 5371 831 Blue 13
2 PM Sun 67 73 W 16 6495 5119 579 Blue 12
3 PM Sun 66 71 W 16 5387 4540 0 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 65 68 W 16 4542 4540 0 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 62 63 W 15 3848 4540 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sun 58 58 W 15 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 53 53 W 15 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 49 49 W 12 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 47 47 W 12 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 45 45 W 12 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 45 45 W 7 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 44 44 W 7 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 44 44 W 7 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 43 43 NW 6 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 42 42 NW 6 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 42 42 NW 6 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 42 42 NW 8 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 44 44 NW 8 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 46 46 NW 8 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 49 49 W 13 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 53 54 W 13 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 56 59 W 13 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 58 61 W 17 3574 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 60 64 W 17 3948 4540 0 Blue 3
1 PM Mon 60 64 W 17 3948 4540 0 Blue 3
2 PM Mon 60 63 W 18 3848 4540 0 Blue 2
3 PM Mon 59 62 W 18 3752 4540 0 Blue 1
4 PM Mon 58 60 W 18 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 56 57 W 17 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 54 54 W 17 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 50 50 W 17 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 47 47 W 14 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 45 45 W 14 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 44 44 W 14 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 44 44 W 9 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 44 44 W 9 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 45 45 W 9 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 45 45 W 9 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 44 44 W 9 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 44 44 W 9 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 43 43 SW 9 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 43 43 SW 9 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 43 43 SW 9 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 44 44 SW 9 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 45 45 SW 9 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 47 48 SW 9 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 49 51 SW 10 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 53 55 SW 10 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 57 59 SW 10 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 59 61 W 12 3574 4540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 59 60 W 12 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 56 57 W 12 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 52 52 W 13 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 50 50 W 13 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 47 47 W 13 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 45 45 W 10 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 43 43 W 10 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 42 42 W 10 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 41 41 W 9 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 42 42 W 9 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 43 43 W 9 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 43 43 NW 9 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 43 43 NW 9 3327 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 43 43 NW 9 3327 4540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst