Detailed Predictions for: Horse Canyon
Launch Altitude (f): 4540
LZ Altitude (f): 3300
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

14 DEC 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 44 44 NE 13 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 42 42 NE 13 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 41 41 NE 13 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 42 42 NE 13 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 46 46 NE 12 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 52 52 NE 12 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 58 58 E 9 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 62 63 E 8 4311 4540 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Fri 64 65 E 7 4760 4540 0 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 63 64 S 3 4536 4540 0 Blue 2
2 PM Fri 63 63 SW 5 4311 4540 0 Blue 1
3 PM Fri 61 61 SW 5 3378 4540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 59 59 W 7 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 57 57 NW 7 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 54 54 NW 6 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 52 52 N 5 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 50 50 N 3 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 48 48 N 3 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 47 47 NE 3 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 47 47 N 2 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 47 47 NE 3 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 46 46 N 3 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 45 45 N 3 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 43 43 N 5 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 42 42 N 6 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 41 41 N 6 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 42 42 NE 5 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 45 45 NE 6 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 51 51 NE 7 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 58 58 NE 6 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 64 65 E 5 4760 4540 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 68 70 E 5 7560 5601 1061 Blue 8
12 Noon Sat 70 72 E 5 8582 6963 2423 Blue 10
1 PM Sat 69 71 SE 3 8078 6363 1823 Blue 9
2 PM Sat 69 70 SE 2 7560 5601 1061 Blue 8
3 PM Sat 67 67 SW 2 5658 4540 0 Blue 5
4 PM Sat 64 64 SW 2 4536 4540 0 Blue 2
5 PM Sat 59 59 W 3 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 54 54 N 6 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 51 51 NE 7 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 49 49 NE 8 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 48 48 NE 9 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 48 48 NE 9 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 47 47 NE 8 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 46 46 E 7 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 46 46 E 7 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 45 45 E 7 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 44 44 E 7 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 43 43 E 8 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 42 42 E 8 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 42 42 E 9 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 45 45 E 9 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 50 50 E 8 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 57 57 SE 7 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 64 65 SE 6 4760 4540 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 67 68 SE 6 6436 4750 210 Blue 6
12 Noon Sun 67 69 SE 6 7026 4972 432 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 68 69 SE 6 7026 4972 432 Blue 7
2 PM Sun 66 67 SE 7 5658 4540 0 Blue 5
3 PM Sun 65 65 E 8 4760 4540 0 Blue 3
4 PM Sun 62 62 E 8 4086 4540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 59 59 NE 7 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 55 55 N 3 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 52 52 N 1 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 50 50 NW 1 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 49 49 NW 2 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 48 48 W 2 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 48 48 W 3 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 47 47 W 5 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 47 47 W 6 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 48 48 W 7 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 47 47 NW 7 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 46 46 NW 7 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 44 44 NW 7 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 43 43 NW 7 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 44 44 NW 9 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 48 48 NW 9 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 53 53 NW 9 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 58 60 W 10 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 60 63 W 10 4311 4540 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Mon 60 63 W 10 4311 4540 0 Blue 1
1 PM Mon 59 61 W 13 3378 4540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 58 59 W 13 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 57 57 W 13 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 55 55 NW 13 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 52 52 NW 13 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 48 48 NW 13 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 46 46 NW 10 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 44 44 NW 10 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 44 44 NW 10 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 45 45 N 12 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 45 45 N 12 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 46 46 N 12 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 46 46 NE 12 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 45 45 NE 12 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 45 45 NE 12 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 43 43 NE 12 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 42 42 NE 12 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 41 41 NE 12 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 42 42 NE 10 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 45 45 NE 10 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 50 51 NE 10 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 55 57 NE 16 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 58 60 NE 16 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 60 62 NE 16 4086 4540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 61 63 NE 12 4311 4540 0 Blue 1
2 PM Tue 61 62 NE 12 4086 4540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 60 60 NE 12 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 57 57 NE 10 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 52 52 NE 10 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 46 46 NE 10 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 43 43 NE 13 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 42 42 NE 13 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 43 43 NE 13 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 45 45 NE 20 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 46 46 NE 20 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 46 46 NE 20 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 47 47 NE 21 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 47 47 NE 21 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 47 47 NE 21 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 48 48 NE 21 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 48 48 NE 21 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 48 48 NE 21 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 50 50 NE 24 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 53 53 NE 24 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 56 57 NE 24 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 60 62 NE 24 4086 4540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 64 66 NE 24 4983 4540 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Wed 66 68 NE 24 6436 4750 210 Blue 6
1 PM Wed 67 69 NE 21 7026 4972 432 Blue 7
2 PM Wed 66 67 NE 21 5658 4540 0 Blue 5
3 PM Wed 64 64 NE 21 4536 4540 0 Blue 2
4 PM Wed 62 62 NE 20 4086 4540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 59 59 NE 20 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 56 56 NE 20 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 54 54 NE 21 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 53 53 NE 21 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 52 52 NE 21 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 51 51 NE 20 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 51 51 NE 20 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 50 50 NE 20 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 50 50 NE 18 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 49 49 NE 18 2881 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 48 48 NE 18 2881 4540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst