Detailed Predictions for: Horse Canyon
Launch Altitude (f): 4540
LZ Altitude (f): 3300
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

24 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 64 64 N 2 3373 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 67 67 N 2 3373 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 70 70 N 2 3373 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 75 75 E 1 3610 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 79 81 SE 2 5353 4540 0 Blue 6
10 AM Sat 84 88 SE 2 7614 6814 2274 Blue 13
11 AM Sat 88 94 SE 6 12040 10902 6362 Blue 19
12 Noon Sat 90 97 SE 6 12980 11914 7374 Blue 22
1 PM Sat 92 99 SE 6 13331 12750 8210 Blue 24
2 PM Sat 91 98 SE 5 13156 12462 7922 Blue 23
3 PM Sat 92 97 S 1 12980 11914 7374 Blue 22
4 PM Sat 91 95 SW 2 12628 11243 6703 Blue 20
5 PM Sat 88 90 W 3 8184 7291 2751 Blue 15
6 PM Sat 84 84 W 5 6614 5324 784 Blue 9
7 PM Sat 79 79 W 5 4472 4540 0 Blue 4
8 PM Sat 75 75 W 1 3610 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 72 72 SW 1 3373 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 71 71 W 1 3373 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 71 71 NW 3 3373 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 70 70 NW 3 3373 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 70 70 NW 3 3373 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 69 69 N 3 3373 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 68 68 N 2 3373 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 67 67 N 2 3373 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 67 67 N 2 3373 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 69 69 NE 2 3373 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 72 72 NE 2 3373 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 76 76 S 2 3902 4540 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sun 80 82 SE 3 5833 4540 0 Blue 7
10 AM Sun 84 88 SE 3 7614 6814 2274 Blue 13
11 AM Sun 87 92 S 6 11329 7860 3320 Blue 17
12 Noon Sun 90 97 S 5 12980 11914 7374 Blue 22
1 PM Sun 92 99 S 5 13331 12750 8210 Blue 24
2 PM Sun 91 97 W 6 12980 11914 7374 Blue 22
3 PM Sun 91 96 W 9 12804 11580 7040 Blue 21
4 PM Sun 89 92 W 10 11329 7860 3320 Blue 17
5 PM Sun 85 86 NW 12 7061 6260 1720 Blue 11
6 PM Sun 82 82 NW 12 5833 4540 0 Blue 7
7 PM Sun 78 78 NW 10 4160 4540 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sun 74 74 NW 8 3427 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 72 72 NW 7 3373 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 71 71 NW 7 3373 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 70 70 NW 8 3373 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 70 70 NW 8 3373 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 70 70 N 9 3373 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 69 69 N 9 3373 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 68 68 N 9 3373 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 68 68 N 9 3373 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 68 68 N 9 3373 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 70 70 N 8 3373 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 73 73 N 6 3373 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 76 76 NW 2 3902 4540 0 Blue 1
9 AM Mon 80 81 SW 2 5353 4540 0 Blue 6
10 AM Mon 84 86 S 2 7061 6260 1720 Blue 11
11 AM Mon 88 92 S 6 11329 7860 3320 Blue 17
12 Noon Mon 91 96 S 5 12804 11580 7040 Blue 21
1 PM Mon 94 99 SE 5 13331 12750 8210 Blue 24
2 PM Mon 93 97 SE 1 12980 11914 7374 Blue 22
3 PM Mon 92 95 NW 9 12628 11243 6703 Blue 20
4 PM Mon 88 90 W 14 8184 7291 2751 Blue 15
5 PM Mon 84 85 NW 14 6838 5797 1257 Blue 10
6 PM Mon 81 81 NW 14 5353 4540 0 Blue 6
7 PM Mon 78 78 NW 12 4160 4540 0 Blue 3
8 PM Mon 75 75 N 7 3610 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 73 73 NW 6 3373 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 72 72 NW 8 3373 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 71 71 NW 9 3373 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 71 71 N 10 3373 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 70 70 N 10 3373 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 70 70 N 9 3373 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 68 68 N 7 3373 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 67 67 N 6 3373 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 67 67 S 3 3373 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 70 70 S 3 3373 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 75 75 S 3 3610 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 81 81 S 2 5353 4540 0 Blue 6
9 AM Tue 85 87 S 2 7326 6592 2052 Blue 12
10 AM Tue 89 93 S 2 11670 8142 3602 Blue 18
11 AM Tue 92 98 SW 7 13156 12462 7922 Blue 23
12 Noon Tue 94 101 SW 7 13681 13100 8560 Blue 26
1 PM Tue 93 100 SW 7 13507 12925 8385 Blue 25
2 PM Tue 94 101 W 9 13681 13100 8560 Blue 26
3 PM Tue 93 98 W 9 13156 12462 7922 Blue 23
4 PM Tue 91 95 W 9 12628 11243 6703 Blue 20
5 PM Tue 89 91 W 8 10985 7576 3036 Blue 16
6 PM Tue 86 86 W 8 7061 6260 1720 Blue 11
7 PM Tue 83 83 W 8 6302 4787 247 Blue 8
8 PM Tue 80 80 W 5 4817 4540 0 Blue 5
9 PM Tue 77 77 W 5 4031 4540 0 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 75 75 W 5 3610 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 73 73 W 5 3373 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 72 72 W 5 3373 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 72 72 W 5 3373 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 70 70 W 6 3373 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 69 69 W 6 3373 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 68 68 W 6 3373 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 68 68 W 5 3373 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 70 70 W 5 3373 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 73 73 W 5 3373 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 77 78 SW 2 4160 4540 0 Blue 3
9 AM Wed 81 83 SW 2 6302 4787 247 Blue 8
10 AM Wed 86 90 SW 2 8184 7291 2751 Blue 15
11 AM Wed 89 95 W 8 12628 11243 6703 Blue 20
12 Noon Wed 91 98 W 8 13156 12462 7922 Blue 23
1 PM Wed 92 99 W 8 13331 12750 8210 Blue 24
2 PM Wed 92 99 W 10 13331 12750 8210 Blue 24
3 PM Wed 93 98 W 10 13156 12462 7922 Blue 23
4 PM Wed 92 96 W 10 12804 11580 7040 Blue 21
5 PM Wed 90 92 W 9 11329 7860 3320 Blue 17
6 PM Wed 86 86 W 9 7061 6260 1720 Blue 11
7 PM Wed 82 82 W 9 5833 4540 0 Blue 7
8 PM Wed 78 78 W 5 4160 4540 0 Blue 3
9 PM Wed 75 75 W 5 3610 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 73 73 W 5 3373 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 71 71 W 5 3373 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 70 70 W 5 3373 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 70 70 W 5 3373 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 69 69 W 5 3373 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 68 68 W 5 3373 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 68 68 W 5 3373 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 69 69 NW 3 3373 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 72 72 NW 3 3373 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 75 75 NW 3 3610 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 80 81 W 2 5353 4540 0 Blue 6
9 AM Thu 84 86 W 2 7061 6260 1720 Blue 11
10 AM Thu 87 91 W 2 10985 7576 3036 Blue 16
11 AM Thu 89 94 W 7 12040 10902 6362 Blue 19
12 Noon Thu 91 98 W 7 13156 12462 7922 Blue 23
1 PM Thu 93 100 W 7 13507 12925 8385 Blue 25
2 PM Thu 92 98 W 10 13156 12462 7922 Blue 23
3 PM Thu 92 97 W 10 12980 11914 7374 Blue 22
4 PM Thu 91 94 W 10 12040 10902 6362 Blue 19
5 PM Thu 88 90 W 9 8184 7291 2751 Blue 15
6 PM Thu 84 84 W 9 6614 5324 784 Blue 9
7 PM Thu 80 80 W 9 4817 4540 0 Blue 5
8 PM Thu 77 77 W 5 4031 4540 0 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 75 75 W 5 3610 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 74 74 W 5 3427 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 74 74 W 5 3427 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 74 74 W 5 3427 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 73 73 W 5 3373 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 71 71 W 5 3373 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 70 70 W 5 3373 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 69 69 W 5 3373 4540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst