Detailed Predictions for: Horse Canyon
Launch Altitude (f): 4540
LZ Altitude (f): 3300
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Thu 48 48 NE 7 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 48 48 NE 6 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 48 48 NE 7 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 47 47 NE 7 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 52 52 NE 7 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 60 61 NE 5 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 66 67 SE 2 3464 4540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 70 72 S 2 6216 4540 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 71 73 S 2 6836 5055 515 Blue 6
1 PM Thu 72 74 SW 6 7722 5620 1080 Blue 7
2 PM Thu 71 72 SW 7 6216 4540 0 Blue 5
3 PM Thu 70 70 W 6 5084 4540 0 Blue 3
4 PM Thu 68 68 W 7 3956 4540 0 Blue 1
5 PM Thu 61 61 NW 5 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 56 56 NW 5 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 52 52 NW 3 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 51 51 N 3 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 50 50 N 3 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 50 50 NW 3 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 50 50 NW 3 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 48 48 NW 3 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 46 46 NW 2 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 44 44 NW 2 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 45 45 NW 2 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 44 44 NW 2 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 44 44 NW 3 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 44 44 NW 3 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 43 43 NW 3 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 47 47 W 3 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 52 52 W 3 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 57 57 SW 8 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 59 60 W 9 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 60 61 W 9 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 61 62 W 12 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 60 60 W 13 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 60 60 W 14 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 57 57 W 14 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 51 51 W 15 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 46 46 W 16 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 42 42 W 17 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 42 42 W 16 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 40 40 W 16 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 40 40 W 20 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 41 41 W 18 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 38 38 W 20 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 37 37 W 20 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 35 35 W 21 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 36 36 W 18 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 35 35 W 16 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 35 35 W 18 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 35 35 W 20 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 34 34 W 18 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 37 37 NW 17 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 41 41 NW 16 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 45 47 W 16 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 47 49 W 17 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 48 50 W 16 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 48 50 W 15 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 47 48 W 15 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 47 48 W 16 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 45 45 W 15 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 42 42 W 14 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 38 38 W 14 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 36 36 NW 10 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 36 36 NW 10 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 35 35 NW 10 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 35 35 NW 8 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 35 35 NW 8 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 34 34 NW 8 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 33 33 N 5 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 31 31 N 5 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 32 32 N 5 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 31 31 NE 9 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 32 32 NE 9 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 32 32 NE 9 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 31 31 E 9 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 36 36 E 9 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 43 44 E 9 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 49 50 E 7 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 53 55 E 7 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 54 56 E 7 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 55 57 E 2 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 55 56 E 2 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 54 54 E 2 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 52 52 NW 3 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 48 48 NW 3 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 44 44 NW 3 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 41 41 N 6 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 41 41 N 6 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 40 40 N 6 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 40 40 N 7 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 40 40 N 7 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 38 38 N 7 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 37 37 NE 8 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 36 36 NE 8 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 36 36 NE 8 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 36 36 NE 7 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 36 36 NE 7 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 36 36 NE 7 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 35 35 N 8 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 40 40 N 8 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 48 48 N 8 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 54 55 N 9 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 58 60 N 9 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 59 61 N 9 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 60 62 N 7 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 60 61 N 7 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 59 59 N 7 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 57 57 NW 10 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 52 52 NW 10 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 48 48 NW 10 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 46 46 NW 10 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 45 45 NW 10 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 44 44 NW 10 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 44 44 N 8 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 44 44 N 8 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 42 42 N 8 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 41 41 N 10 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 40 40 N 10 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 40 40 N 10 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 40 40 N 8 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 40 40 N 8 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 40 40 N 8 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 39 39 N 8 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 44 44 N 8 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 52 53 N 8 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 58 60 N 7 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 62 64 N 7 2913 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 63 65 N 7 3097 4540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 64 66 N 6 3280 4540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 64 65 N 6 3097 4540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 63 64 N 6 2913 4540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 60 60 N 6 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 55 55 N 6 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 50 50 N 6 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 48 48 NE 10 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 47 47 NE 10 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 46 46 NE 10 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 46 46 NE 9 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 46 46 NE 9 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 44 44 NE 9 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 42 42 NE 12 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 41 41 NE 12 2831 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 42 42 NE 12 2831 4540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst