Detailed Predictions for: Horse Canyon
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.7747, -116.477, 4540
LZ Altitude (f): 3300
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

27 FEB 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 46 46 W 4 9 3137 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 45 45 W 4 9 2931 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 44 44 W 4 8 2725 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 43 43 W 4 9 2519 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 43 43 W 4 9 2519 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 42 42 W 4 9 2497 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 42 42 W 3 7 2497 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 43 43 W 2 6 2519 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 44 45 WNW 2 4 2931 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 48 50 W 3 5 3955 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 52 56 WSW 4 5 5355 4564 24 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 56 61 WSW 4 6 6980 5998 1458 Blue 7
12 Noon Sat 58 63 WSW 6 7 8694 6639 2099 Blue 9
1 PM Sat 59 64 W 7 8 9601 6956 2416 Blue 10
2 PM Sat 60 63 W 8 10 8694 6639 2099 Blue 9
3 PM Sat 59 61 W 8 10 6980 5998 1458 Blue 7
4 PM Sat 58 58 W 8 10 6014 5016 476 Blue 4
5 PM Sat 57 57 W 8 11 5686 4765 225 Blue 3
6 PM Sat 55 55 W 6 9 5021 4540 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sat 53 53 WNW 4 7 4565 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 50 50 WNW 3 6 3955 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 49 49 SW 5 10 3752 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 48 48 SSE 7 13 3547 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 47 47 E 9 17 3342 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 46 46 E 11 20 3137 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 45 45 ENE 13 23 2931 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 44 44 ENE 15 25 2725 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 43 43 ENE 15 25 2519 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 42 42 ENE 15 25 2497 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 41 41 ENE 15 25 2497 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 40 40 ENE 15 25 2497 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 40 40 ENE 16 24 2497 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 40 41 ENE 16 24 2497 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 42 44 ENE 17 23 2725 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 45 49 ENE 18 23 3752 4540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 47 52 ENE 19 22 4362 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 48 53 ENE 19 22 4565 4540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 49 53 ENE 19 21 4565 4540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 50 53 ENE 18 21 4565 4540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 49 51 ENE 17 20 4159 4540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 49 49 ENE 16 19 3752 4540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 49 49 ENE 15 18 3752 4540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 46 46 ENE 15 21 3137 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 44 44 ENE 14 24 2725 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 41 41 ENE 13 27 2497 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 39 39 ENE 13 27 2497 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 36 36 ENE 13 27 2497 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 34 34 ENE 13 28 2497 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 36 36 ENE 12 26 2497 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 39 39 ENE 12 25 2497 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 41 41 NE 11 23 2497 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 41 41 ENE 12 24 2497 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 41 41 ENE 12 24 2497 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 41 41 ENE 12 25 2497 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 41 41 ENE 13 25 2497 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 41 41 ENE 13 24 2497 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 42 43 ENE 13 24 2519 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 45 47 ENE 13 21 3342 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 49 53 ENE 13 18 4565 4540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 52 57 ENE 13 15 5686 4765 225 Blue 3
12 Noon Mon 54 59 ENE 13 15 6339 5346 806 Blue 5
1 PM Mon 55 60 ENE 12 14 6661 5674 1134 Blue 6
2 PM Mon 56 59 ENE 11 13 6339 5346 806 Blue 5
3 PM Mon 56 58 ENE 10 12 6014 5016 476 Blue 4
4 PM Mon 55 55 NE 8 11 5021 4540 0 Blue 1
5 PM Mon 55 55 NE 7 9 5021 4540 0 Blue 1
6 PM Mon 53 53 NE 7 11 4565 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 51 51 NE 6 12 4159 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 49 49 NE 6 13 3752 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 47 47 NE 6 13 3342 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 45 45 NE 6 13 2931 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 43 43 NE 6 13 2519 4540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst