Detailed Predictions for: Horse Canyon
Launch Altitude (f): 4540
LZ Altitude (f): 3300
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

25 APR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 55 55 N 10 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 58 58 N 10 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 62 62 N 9 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 67 68 NW 8 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 72 75 NW 7 5621 4540 0 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 76 81 NW 7 9355 6708 2168 Blue 8
11 AM Thu 79 85 W 7 11731 9955 5415 Blue 12
12 Noon Thu 81 88 W 7 12683 11667 7127 Blue 15
1 PM Thu 83 90 W 8 14274 12218 7678 Blue 17
2 PM Thu 82 89 W 9 13038 11899 7359 Blue 16
3 PM Thu 82 87 W 9 12323 11435 6895 Blue 14
4 PM Thu 81 84 W 10 11497 9207 4667 Blue 11
5 PM Thu 78 79 W 10 7795 5916 1376 Blue 6
6 PM Thu 73 73 NW 9 4967 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 68 68 NW 8 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 63 63 NW 7 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 60 60 NW 7 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 58 58 NW 8 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 58 58 NW 8 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 57 57 N 8 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 56 56 N 8 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 55 55 N 8 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 54 54 N 9 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 53 53 N 9 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 54 54 N 9 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 56 56 NW 8 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 61 61 NW 7 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 66 67 NW 7 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 70 73 NW 7 4967 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 74 79 W 7 7795 5916 1376 Blue 6
11 AM Fri 77 83 W 8 11262 8405 3865 Blue 10
12 Noon Fri 80 87 W 9 12323 11435 6895 Blue 14
1 PM Fri 81 88 W 9 12683 11667 7127 Blue 15
2 PM Fri 80 87 W 10 12323 11435 6895 Blue 14
3 PM Fri 80 85 W 10 11731 9955 5415 Blue 12
4 PM Fri 78 81 W 12 9355 6708 2168 Blue 8
5 PM Fri 74 75 W 12 5621 4540 0 Blue 2
6 PM Fri 69 69 NW 12 3240 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 64 64 NW 12 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 60 60 N 10 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 57 57 N 12 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 56 56 NW 13 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 56 56 NW 13 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 55 55 NW 14 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 54 54 NW 13 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 53 53 NW 13 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 52 52 NW 13 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 51 51 NW 13 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 51 51 NW 13 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 53 53 NW 12 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 56 56 NW 12 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 60 61 NW 12 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 65 68 NW 12 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 70 75 NW 13 5621 4540 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 73 79 NW 14 7795 5916 1376 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 76 83 NW 14 11262 8405 3865 Blue 10
1 PM Sat 76 83 W 14 11262 8405 3865 Blue 10
2 PM Sat 77 83 W 14 11262 8405 3865 Blue 10
3 PM Sat 76 81 W 15 9355 6708 2168 Blue 8
4 PM Sat 74 77 W 15 6260 5277 737 Blue 4
5 PM Sat 71 72 W 14 4518 4540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 67 67 W 13 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 64 64 NW 10 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 61 61 NW 9 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 59 59 NW 9 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 57 57 NW 9 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 56 56 W 9 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 55 55 W 9 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 53 53 W 8 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 51 51 W 8 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 49 49 W 7 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 48 48 W 7 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 48 48 W 7 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 51 51 W 7 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 54 54 W 7 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 59 60 W 9 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 63 65 W 9 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 67 70 W 9 3673 4540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 70 75 W 14 5621 4540 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sun 72 78 W 14 6836 5598 1058 Blue 5
1 PM Sun 74 80 W 14 8542 6231 1691 Blue 7
2 PM Sun 75 81 W 14 9355 6708 2168 Blue 8
3 PM Sun 75 79 W 14 7795 5916 1376 Blue 6
4 PM Sun 74 77 W 14 6260 5277 737 Blue 4
5 PM Sun 72 73 W 13 4967 4540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 68 68 W 13 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 64 64 W 13 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 61 61 NW 8 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 59 59 NW 8 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 58 58 NW 8 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 57 57 SW 6 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 55 55 SW 6 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 52 52 SW 6 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 49 49 W 7 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 47 47 W 7 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 45 45 W 7 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 45 45 W 9 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 46 46 W 9 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 47 47 W 9 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 49 49 W 14 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 52 53 W 14 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 55 57 W 14 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 56 59 SW 16 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 57 61 SW 16 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 57 61 SW 16 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 57 61 W 20 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 58 61 W 20 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 59 61 W 20 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 59 60 W 18 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 56 56 W 18 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 51 51 W 18 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 47 47 W 14 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 45 45 W 14 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 44 44 W 14 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 44 44 W 9 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 44 44 W 9 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 44 44 W 9 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 43 43 NW 9 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 43 43 NW 9 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 42 42 NW 9 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 42 42 NW 9 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 44 44 NW 9 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 46 46 NW 9 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 48 48 W 7 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 51 52 W 7 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 54 56 W 7 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 57 63 W 14 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 60 67 W 14 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 61 68 W 14 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 62 68 W 16 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 62 67 W 16 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 60 63 W 16 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 58 59 W 16 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 55 55 W 16 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 52 52 W 16 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 49 49 W 12 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 46 46 W 12 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 45 45 W 12 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 44 44 W 9 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 43 43 W 9 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 42 42 W 9 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 42 42 W 9 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 42 42 W 9 3235 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 42 42 W 9 3235 4540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst