Detailed Predictions for: Horse Canyon
Launch Altitude (f): 4540
LZ Altitude (f): 3300
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

15 JUN 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 55 55 N 7 3466 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 56 56 N 7 3487 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 60 60 NW 5 3603 4540 0 Blue 2
8 AM Sat 68 69 W 2 4030 4540 0 Blue 11
9 AM Sat 76 79 W 3 5021 4540 0 Blue 21
10 AM Sat 81 86 W 3 6338 5841 1301 Blue 28
11 AM Sat 83 89 SW 6 9994 6314 1774 Blue 31
12 Noon Sat 85 92 SW 7 11295 9420 4880 Blue 34
1 PM Sat 85 92 W 7 11295 9420 4880 Blue 34
2 PM Sat 86 93 W 9 11639 10423 5883 Blue 35
3 PM Sat 85 90 W 9 10523 6569 2029 Blue 32
4 PM Sat 85 89 W 10 9994 6314 1774 Blue 31
5 PM Sat 83 85 W 10 6080 5721 1181 Blue 27
6 PM Sat 81 82 NW 10 5735 5009 469 Blue 24
7 PM Sat 77 77 NW 9 4665 4540 0 Blue 19
8 PM Sat 70 70 NW 5 4099 4540 0 Blue 12
9 PM Sat 67 67 NW 5 3914 4540 0 Blue 9
10 PM Sat 64 64 NW 6 3751 4540 0 Blue 6
11 PM Sat 62 62 NW 8 3676 4540 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sun 60 60 N 8 3603 4540 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sun 60 60 N 8 3603 4540 0 Blue 2
2 AM Sun 60 60 N 9 3603 4540 0 Blue 2
3 AM Sun 60 60 N 8 3603 4540 0 Blue 2
4 AM Sun 59 59 N 9 3567 4540 0 Blue 1
5 AM Sun 59 59 N 8 3567 4540 0 Blue 1
6 AM Sun 59 59 N 6 3567 4540 0 Blue 1
7 AM Sun 63 63 N 3 3712 4540 0 Blue 5
8 AM Sun 70 71 SW 1 4167 4540 0 Blue 13
9 AM Sun 77 80 SW 3 5242 4659 119 Blue 22
10 AM Sun 81 86 SW 5 6338 5841 1301 Blue 28
11 AM Sun 82 88 SW 7 6851 6068 1528 Blue 30
12 Noon Sun 84 90 SW 8 10523 6569 2029 Blue 32
1 PM Sun 84 91 W 8 10947 6823 2283 Blue 33
2 PM Sun 85 91 W 10 10947 6823 2283 Blue 33
3 PM Sun 84 89 W 10 9994 6314 1774 Blue 31
4 PM Sun 83 86 W 10 6338 5841 1301 Blue 28
5 PM Sun 82 84 W 10 5964 5474 934 Blue 26
6 PM Sun 80 80 W 10 5242 4659 119 Blue 22
7 PM Sun 74 74 W 9 4373 4540 0 Blue 16
8 PM Sun 67 67 NW 7 3914 4540 0 Blue 9
9 PM Sun 63 63 NW 7 3712 4540 0 Blue 5
10 PM Sun 59 59 NW 7 3567 4540 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sun 57 57 NW 7 3509 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 56 56 NW 8 3487 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 55 55 NW 8 3466 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 56 56 N 9 3487 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 55 55 N 9 3466 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 54 54 N 9 3444 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 54 54 N 9 3444 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 54 54 N 7 3444 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 58 58 NW 5 3531 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 66 67 SW 3 3914 4540 0 Blue 9
9 AM Mon 73 75 SW 5 4442 4540 0 Blue 17
10 AM Mon 78 82 SW 7 5735 5009 469 Blue 24
11 AM Mon 79 85 SW 9 6080 5721 1181 Blue 27
12 Noon Mon 81 89 SW 10 9994 6314 1774 Blue 31
1 PM Mon 81 89 SW 12 9994 6314 1774 Blue 31
2 PM Mon 82 89 W 12 9994 6314 1774 Blue 31
3 PM Mon 81 87 W 12 6595 5954 1414 Blue 29
4 PM Mon 81 85 W 12 6080 5721 1181 Blue 27
5 PM Mon 80 82 W 12 5735 5009 469 Blue 24
6 PM Mon 78 79 W 10 5021 4540 0 Blue 21
7 PM Mon 73 73 W 8 4304 4540 0 Blue 15
8 PM Mon 67 67 NW 6 3914 4540 0 Blue 9
9 PM Mon 64 64 NW 6 3751 4540 0 Blue 6
10 PM Mon 60 60 NW 6 3603 4540 0 Blue 2
11 PM Mon 59 59 NW 7 3567 4540 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Tue 57 57 N 7 3509 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 56 56 N 7 3487 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 57 57 N 7 3509 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 57 57 N 6 3509 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 56 56 N 6 3487 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 56 56 W 1 3487 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 56 56 W 1 3487 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 60 60 W 1 3603 4540 0 Blue 2
8 AM Tue 68 69 SW 2 4030 4540 0 Blue 11
9 AM Tue 76 79 SW 2 5021 4540 0 Blue 21
10 AM Tue 80 85 SW 2 6080 5721 1181 Blue 27
11 AM Tue 82 89 SW 5 9994 6314 1774 Blue 31
12 Noon Tue 84 92 SW 5 11295 9420 4880 Blue 34
1 PM Tue 84 92 SW 5 11295 9420 4880 Blue 34
2 PM Tue 85 92 W 7 11295 9420 4880 Blue 34
3 PM Tue 85 91 W 7 10947 6823 2283 Blue 33
4 PM Tue 84 88 W 7 6851 6068 1528 Blue 30
5 PM Tue 82 84 W 10 5964 5474 934 Blue 26
6 PM Tue 80 81 W 10 5490 4818 278 Blue 23
7 PM Tue 76 76 W 10 4510 4540 0 Blue 18
8 PM Tue 70 70 NW 5 4099 4540 0 Blue 12
9 PM Tue 66 66 NW 5 3860 4540 0 Blue 8
10 PM Tue 64 64 NW 5 3751 4540 0 Blue 6
11 PM Tue 62 62 NW 7 3676 4540 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Wed 60 60 NW 7 3603 4540 0 Blue 2
1 AM Wed 60 60 NW 7 3603 4540 0 Blue 2
2 AM Wed 60 60 NW 7 3603 4540 0 Blue 2
3 AM Wed 60 60 NW 7 3603 4540 0 Blue 2
4 AM Wed 59 59 NW 7 3567 4540 0 Blue 1
5 AM Wed 59 59 N 7 3567 4540 0 Blue 1
6 AM Wed 60 60 N 7 3603 4540 0 Blue 2
7 AM Wed 63 63 N 7 3712 4540 0 Blue 5
8 AM Wed 71 72 W 2 4236 4540 0 Blue 14
9 AM Wed 78 81 W 2 5490 4818 278 Blue 23
10 AM Wed 82 87 W 2 6595 5954 1414 Blue 29
11 AM Wed 84 91 W 8 10947 6823 2283 Blue 33
12 Noon Wed 86 94 W 8 12110 10859 6319 Blue 36
1 PM Wed 86 95 W 8 12585 11207 6667 Blue 37
2 PM Wed 87 95 W 12 12585 11207 6667 Blue 37
3 PM Wed 87 93 W 12 11639 10423 5883 Blue 35
4 PM Wed 86 90 W 12 10523 6569 2029 Blue 32
5 PM Wed 84 86 W 12 6338 5841 1301 Blue 28
6 PM Wed 82 83 W 12 5849 5229 689 Blue 25
7 PM Wed 77 77 W 12 4665 4540 0 Blue 19
8 PM Wed 71 71 NW 7 4167 4540 0 Blue 13
9 PM Wed 67 67 NW 7 3914 4540 0 Blue 9
10 PM Wed 64 64 NW 7 3751 4540 0 Blue 6
11 PM Wed 62 62 NW 8 3676 4540 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Thu 60 60 NW 8 3603 4540 0 Blue 2
1 AM Thu 60 60 NW 8 3603 4540 0 Blue 2
2 AM Thu 60 60 NW 8 3603 4540 0 Blue 2
3 AM Thu 60 60 NW 8 3603 4540 0 Blue 2
4 AM Thu 59 59 NW 8 3567 4540 0 Blue 1
5 AM Thu 59 59 NW 7 3567 4540 0 Blue 1
6 AM Thu 59 59 NW 7 3567 4540 0 Blue 1
7 AM Thu 63 63 NW 7 3712 4540 0 Blue 5
8 AM Thu 70 72 W 7 4236 4540 0 Blue 14
9 AM Thu 77 80 W 7 5242 4659 119 Blue 22
10 AM Thu 81 86 W 7 6338 5841 1301 Blue 28
11 AM Thu 82 89 W 12 9994 6314 1774 Blue 31
12 Noon Thu 84 92 W 12 11295 9420 4880 Blue 34
1 PM Thu 84 93 W 12 11639 10423 5883 Blue 35
2 PM Thu 85 93 W 14 11639 10423 5883 Blue 35
3 PM Thu 85 91 W 14 10947 6823 2283 Blue 33
4 PM Thu 84 88 W 14 6851 6068 1528 Blue 30
5 PM Thu 82 84 W 15 5964 5474 934 Blue 26
6 PM Thu 80 81 W 15 5490 4818 278 Blue 23
7 PM Thu 75 75 W 15 4442 4540 0 Blue 17
8 PM Thu 68 68 W 9 3969 4540 0 Blue 10
9 PM Thu 64 64 W 9 3751 4540 0 Blue 6
10 PM Thu 61 61 W 9 3640 4540 0 Blue 3
11 PM Thu 59 59 W 9 3567 4540 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Fri 58 58 W 9 3531 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 56 56 W 9 3487 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 57 57 W 9 3509 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 57 57 W 9 3509 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 56 56 W 9 3487 4540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst