Detailed Predictions for: Horse Canyon
Launch Altitude (f): 4540
LZ Altitude (f): 3300
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 50 50 N 9 2993 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 52 52 N 9 3071 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 55 55 N 8 3188 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 58 58 N 7 3306 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 62 63 NE 7 3509 4540 0 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 67 69 NE 6 3819 4540 0 Blue 8
11 AM Fri 70 74 S 7 4953 4540 0 Blue 13
12 Noon Fri 73 77 SE 8 5227 4909 369 Blue 16
1 PM Fri 74 78 SE 7 5333 5040 500 Blue 17
2 PM Fri 74 78 S 7 5333 5040 500 Blue 17
3 PM Fri 74 77 SW 7 5227 4909 369 Blue 16
4 PM Fri 73 74 W 8 4953 4540 0 Blue 13
5 PM Fri 70 70 NW 9 4005 4540 0 Blue 9
6 PM Fri 66 66 NW 7 3638 4540 0 Blue 5
7 PM Fri 62 62 NW 7 3467 4540 0 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 58 58 N 6 3306 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 56 56 N 6 3228 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 55 55 N 6 3188 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 55 55 N 6 3188 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 54 54 N 7 3149 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 53 53 N 6 3110 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 52 52 N 7 3071 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 51 51 N 7 3032 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 51 51 N 7 3032 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 52 52 N 8 3071 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 53 53 N 7 3110 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 55 55 N 6 3188 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 59 59 N 6 3345 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 63 64 NW 6 3552 4540 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sat 68 70 NW 6 4005 4540 0 Blue 9
11 AM Sat 73 77 W 7 5227 4909 369 Blue 16
12 Noon Sat 75 79 W 8 5470 5131 591 Blue 18
1 PM Sat 75 80 W 9 6350 5222 682 Blue 19
2 PM Sat 76 80 W 10 6350 5222 682 Blue 19
3 PM Sat 74 77 NW 10 5227 4909 369 Blue 16
4 PM Sat 72 73 NW 10 4654 4540 0 Blue 12
5 PM Sat 69 69 NW 9 3819 4540 0 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 65 65 NW 8 3595 4540 0 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 61 61 N 7 3424 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 58 58 N 7 3306 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 57 57 N 7 3267 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 56 56 N 7 3228 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 56 56 N 8 3228 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 55 55 N 8 3188 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 54 54 N 8 3149 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 53 53 N 9 3110 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 53 53 N 9 3110 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 53 53 N 9 3110 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 54 54 N 9 3149 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 54 54 N 8 3149 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 56 56 N 7 3228 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 58 58 N 6 3306 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 62 63 N 7 3509 4540 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sun 68 70 NE 8 4005 4540 0 Blue 9
11 AM Sun 72 76 NE 10 5136 4647 107 Blue 15
12 Noon Sun 74 78 NE 12 5333 5040 500 Blue 17
1 PM Sun 75 79 NE 14 5470 5131 591 Blue 18
2 PM Sun 76 80 NE 15 6350 5222 682 Blue 19
3 PM Sun 75 78 NE 15 5333 5040 500 Blue 17
4 PM Sun 75 76 NE 15 5136 4647 107 Blue 15
5 PM Sun 73 73 NE 15 4654 4540 0 Blue 12
6 PM Sun 69 69 NE 15 3819 4540 0 Blue 8
7 PM Sun 64 64 NE 15 3552 4540 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sun 60 60 NE 15 3385 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 58 58 NE 16 3306 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 57 57 NE 18 3267 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 57 57 NE 20 3267 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 57 57 NE 21 3267 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 57 57 NE 22 3267 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 57 57 NE 22 3267 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 57 57 NE 23 3267 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 56 56 NE 23 3228 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 56 56 NE 23 3228 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 56 56 NE 23 3228 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 56 56 NE 23 3228 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 58 58 NE 21 3306 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 61 62 NE 21 3467 4540 0 Blue 1
10 AM Mon 65 67 NE 21 3681 4540 0 Blue 6
11 AM Mon 69 73 NE 22 4654 4540 0 Blue 12
12 Noon Mon 73 77 NE 22 5227 4909 369 Blue 16
1 PM Mon 76 80 NE 22 6350 5222 682 Blue 19
2 PM Mon 78 82 NE 18 6858 5461 921 Blue 21
3 PM Mon 77 80 NE 18 6350 5222 682 Blue 19
4 PM Mon 76 77 NE 18 5227 4909 369 Blue 16
5 PM Mon 73 73 NE 17 4654 4540 0 Blue 12
6 PM Mon 69 69 NE 17 3819 4540 0 Blue 8
7 PM Mon 65 65 NE 17 3595 4540 0 Blue 4
8 PM Mon 61 61 NE 15 3424 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 59 59 NE 15 3345 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 59 59 NE 15 3345 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 58 58 NE 15 3306 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 58 58 NE 15 3306 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 56 56 NE 15 3228 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 56 56 NE 16 3228 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 56 56 NE 16 3228 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 57 57 NE 16 3267 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 57 57 NE 17 3267 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 56 56 NE 17 3228 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 56 56 NE 17 3228 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 59 59 NE 15 3345 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 64 65 NE 15 3595 4540 0 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 71 73 NE 15 4654 4540 0 Blue 12
11 AM Tue 77 81 NE 12 6605 5325 785 Blue 20
12 Noon Tue 81 85 NE 12 8638 6830 2290 Blue 24
1 PM Tue 82 87 NE 12 9280 7777 3237 Blue 26
2 PM Tue 82 86 NW 8 9139 7080 2540 Blue 25
3 PM Tue 83 86 NW 8 9139 7080 2540 Blue 25
4 PM Tue 82 83 NW 8 7110 6327 1787 Blue 22
5 PM Tue 79 79 NW 8 5470 5131 591 Blue 18
6 PM Tue 74 74 NW 8 4953 4540 0 Blue 13
7 PM Tue 70 70 NW 8 4005 4540 0 Blue 9
8 PM Tue 65 65 N 8 3595 4540 0 Blue 4
9 PM Tue 63 63 N 8 3509 4540 0 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 62 62 N 8 3467 4540 0 Blue 1
11 PM Tue 62 62 N 9 3467 4540 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Wed 61 61 N 9 3424 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 60 60 N 9 3385 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 59 59 N 8 3345 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 57 57 N 8 3267 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 56 56 N 8 3228 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 56 56 N 8 3228 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 59 59 N 8 3345 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 63 63 N 8 3509 4540 0 Blue 2
8 AM Wed 68 68 N 6 3738 4540 0 Blue 7
9 AM Wed 72 73 N 6 4654 4540 0 Blue 12
10 AM Wed 77 79 N 6 5470 5131 591 Blue 18
11 AM Wed 80 84 SW 7 7886 6579 2039 Blue 23
12 Noon Wed 81 85 SW 7 8638 6830 2290 Blue 24
1 PM Wed 81 86 SW 7 9139 7080 2540 Blue 25
2 PM Wed 82 86 W 10 9139 7080 2540 Blue 25
3 PM Wed 81 84 W 10 7886 6579 2039 Blue 23
4 PM Wed 79 80 W 10 6350 5222 682 Blue 19
5 PM Wed 76 76 NW 9 5136 4647 107 Blue 15
6 PM Wed 71 71 NW 9 4323 4540 0 Blue 10
7 PM Wed 65 65 NW 9 3595 4540 0 Blue 4
8 PM Wed 61 61 NE 5 3424 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 58 58 NE 5 3306 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 57 57 NE 5 3267 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 56 56 N 5 3228 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 55 55 N 5 3188 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 54 54 N 5 3149 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 53 53 NE 7 3110 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 53 53 NE 7 3110 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 53 53 NE 7 3110 4540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst