Detailed Predictions for: Horse Canyon
Launch Altitude (f): 4540
LZ Altitude (f): 3300
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

17 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 49 49 NW 7 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 48 48 NW 7 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 48 48 NW 7 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 48 48 NW 7 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 53 53 W 7 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 59 59 W 8 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 63 64 W 10 4294 4540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 65 66 W 12 5399 4540 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Fri 66 67 W 12 5873 4540 0 Blue 2
1 PM Fri 66 67 W 13 5873 4540 0 Blue 2
2 PM Fri 67 68 W 13 6453 4874 334 Blue 3
3 PM Fri 65 65 W 13 4910 4540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 62 62 W 10 3209 4540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 58 58 W 8 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 55 55 NW 7 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 53 53 N 7 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 51 51 N 9 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 50 50 NW 10 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 48 48 N 12 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 47 47 N 10 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 46 46 N 9 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 46 46 NE 7 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 45 45 NE 6 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 45 45 NE 5 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 45 45 NE 7 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 44 44 NE 9 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 44 44 NE 8 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 44 44 NE 9 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 51 51 NE 8 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 60 61 NE 6 2641 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 64 66 E 5 5399 4540 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 67 70 E 2 7071 5842 1302 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 69 72 E 0 7852 6691 2151 Blue 7
1 PM Sat 69 71 SW 1 7464 6428 1888 Blue 6
2 PM Sat 70 71 W 1 7464 6428 1888 Blue 6
3 PM Sat 68 68 W 1 6453 4874 334 Blue 3
4 PM Sat 64 64 N 2 4294 4540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 58 58 NE 5 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 55 55 NE 6 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 51 51 NE 8 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 49 49 NE 8 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 47 47 NE 7 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 44 44 NE 6 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 43 43 NE 6 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 43 43 NE 5 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 42 42 N 5 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 41 41 NE 3 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 41 41 N 5 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 41 41 N 6 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 40 40 N 7 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 40 40 N 6 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 40 40 N 7 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 49 49 N 5 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 58 59 NW 2 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 64 66 W 3 5399 4540 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 68 71 W 3 7464 6428 1888 Blue 6
12 Noon Sun 70 73 W 5 8247 7024 2484 Blue 8
1 PM Sun 70 72 NW 8 7852 6691 2151 Blue 7
2 PM Sun 71 72 NW 9 7852 6691 2151 Blue 7
3 PM Sun 69 69 NW 9 6719 5359 819 Blue 4
4 PM Sun 65 65 NW 10 4910 4540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 60 60 NW 8 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 56 56 N 5 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 53 53 N 5 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 50 50 N 6 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 49 49 N 7 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 46 46 N 6 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 45 45 N 6 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 44 44 N 7 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 44 44 N 8 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 43 43 N 8 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 43 43 N 7 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 43 43 N 7 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 42 42 N 7 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 42 42 N 7 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 42 42 N 7 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 50 50 N 7 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 59 60 N 7 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 65 67 NW 6 5873 4540 0 Blue 2
11 AM Mon 68 70 NW 6 7071 5842 1302 Blue 5
12 Noon Mon 70 72 NW 6 7852 6691 2151 Blue 7
1 PM Mon 71 73 W 9 8247 7024 2484 Blue 8
2 PM Mon 71 72 W 9 7852 6691 2151 Blue 7
3 PM Mon 69 69 W 9 6719 5359 819 Blue 4
4 PM Mon 66 66 NW 7 5399 4540 0 Blue 1
5 PM Mon 62 62 NW 7 3209 4540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 59 59 NW 7 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 57 57 N 5 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 55 55 N 5 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 54 54 N 5 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 52 52 NE 7 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 51 51 NE 7 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 50 50 NE 7 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 50 50 NE 8 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 49 49 NE 8 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 49 49 NE 8 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 49 49 NE 9 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 48 48 NE 9 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 48 48 NE 9 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 48 48 NE 9 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 56 56 NE 9 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 66 67 NE 9 5873 4540 0 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 72 74 NE 2 8477 7414 2874 Blue 9
11 AM Tue 75 77 NE 2 9965 8454 3914 Blue 12
12 Noon Tue 77 79 NE 2 11120 9507 4967 Blue 14
1 PM Tue 78 80 NE 1 11290 9884 5344 Blue 15
2 PM Tue 78 79 NE 1 11120 9507 4967 Blue 14
3 PM Tue 76 76 NE 1 9584 8184 3644 Blue 11
4 PM Tue 72 72 N 3 7852 6691 2151 Blue 7
5 PM Tue 68 68 N 3 6453 4874 334 Blue 3
6 PM Tue 65 65 N 3 4910 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 62 62 NE 9 3209 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 60 60 NE 9 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 58 58 NE 9 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 56 56 NE 10 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 55 55 NE 10 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 54 54 NE 10 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 54 54 NE 13 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 53 53 NE 13 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 53 53 NE 13 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 53 53 NE 14 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 52 52 NE 14 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 52 52 NE 14 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 52 52 NE 15 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 60 60 NE 15 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 69 70 NE 15 7071 5842 1302 Blue 5
10 AM Wed 74 76 NE 13 9584 8184 3644 Blue 11
11 AM Wed 77 80 NE 13 11290 9884 5344 Blue 15
12 Noon Wed 79 82 NE 13 11625 11054 6514 Blue 17
1 PM Wed 80 82 NE 12 11625 11054 6514 Blue 17
2 PM Wed 80 81 NE 12 11428 10257 5717 Blue 16
3 PM Wed 78 78 NE 12 10300 8592 4052 Blue 13
4 PM Wed 74 74 NE 13 8477 7414 2874 Blue 9
5 PM Wed 70 70 NE 13 7071 5842 1302 Blue 5
6 PM Wed 67 67 NE 13 5873 4540 0 Blue 2
7 PM Wed 64 64 NE 15 4294 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 62 62 NE 15 3209 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 60 60 NE 15 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 58 58 NE 13 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 57 57 NE 13 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 56 56 NE 13 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 56 56 NE 12 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 55 NE 12 2625 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 55 55 NE 12 2625 4540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst