Detailed Predictions for: Horse Canyon
Launch Altitude (f): 4540
LZ Altitude (f): 3300
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

23 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 40 40 NW 9 3301 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 39 39 N 10 3301 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 39 39 N 9 3301 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 46 46 NW 6 3301 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 54 55 NW 6 3658 4540 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 59 61 NW 6 5609 4916 376 Blue 7
11 AM Sat 63 67 W 9 7899 6736 2196 Blue 13
12 Noon Sat 65 70 W 9 9202 7845 3305 Blue 16
1 PM Sat 66 71 W 9 9445 8216 3676 Blue 17
2 PM Sat 66 70 W 12 9202 7845 3305 Blue 16
3 PM Sat 66 69 W 12 8909 7480 2940 Blue 15
4 PM Sat 66 68 W 12 8280 7111 2571 Blue 14
5 PM Sat 64 65 NW 13 7157 5972 1432 Blue 11
6 PM Sat 63 63 NW 13 6394 5261 721 Blue 9
7 PM Sat 59 59 NW 13 5046 4540 0 Blue 5
8 PM Sat 56 56 N 10 4383 4540 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sat 54 54 N 10 3456 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 52 52 N 9 3301 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 52 52 N 7 3301 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 50 50 N 7 3301 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 50 50 NE 8 3301 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 49 49 NE 12 3301 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 48 48 NE 12 3301 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 47 47 NE 13 3301 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 47 47 NE 14 3301 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 47 47 NE 14 3301 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 47 47 NE 14 3301 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 54 54 NE 16 3456 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 61 63 NE 16 6394 5261 721 Blue 9
10 AM Sun 66 69 NE 14 8909 7480 2940 Blue 15
11 AM Sun 69 74 E 6 10157 9396 4856 Blue 20
12 Noon Sun 71 77 E 5 10888 10106 5566 Blue 23
1 PM Sun 72 78 E 3 11154 10330 5790 White 24
2 PM Sun 72 77 SE 3 10888 10106 5566 Blue 23
3 PM Sun 72 76 SE 3 10616 9875 5335 Blue 22
4 PM Sun 72 74 SE 2 10157 9396 4856 Blue 20
5 PM Sun 70 71 NW 9 9445 8216 3676 Blue 17
6 PM Sun 68 68 NW 9 8280 7111 2571 Blue 14
7 PM Sun 63 63 NW 8 6394 5261 721 Blue 9
8 PM Sun 59 59 NE 6 5046 4540 0 Blue 5
9 PM Sun 56 56 NE 6 4383 4540 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 54 54 NE 6 3456 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 54 54 NE 8 3456 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 52 52 NE 7 3301 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 52 52 NE 7 3301 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 50 50 NE 8 3301 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 49 49 NE 9 3301 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 48 48 NE 9 3301 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 48 48 NE 13 3301 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 48 48 NE 13 3301 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 48 48 NE 13 3301 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 56 56 NE 12 4383 4540 0 Blue 2
9 AM Mon 64 66 NE 12 7530 6357 1817 Blue 12
10 AM Mon 69 72 NE 12 9686 8761 4221 Blue 18
11 AM Mon 72 77 N 5 10888 10106 5566 Blue 23
12 Noon Mon 75 81 N 5 11780 11089 6549 White 27
1 PM Mon 76 82 N 5 11983 11355 6815 White 28
2 PM Mon 76 81 N 6 11780 11089 6549 White 27
3 PM Mon 76 80 N 6 11571 10820 6280 White 26
4 PM Mon 76 78 N 6 11154 10330 5790 White 24
5 PM Mon 74 75 N 9 10382 9636 5096 Blue 21
6 PM Mon 71 71 N 9 9445 8216 3676 Blue 17
7 PM Mon 66 66 N 9 7530 6357 1817 Blue 12
8 PM Mon 63 63 N 7 6394 5261 721 Blue 9
9 PM Mon 60 60 N 7 5275 4797 257 Blue 6
10 PM Mon 57 57 N 7 4803 4540 0 Blue 3
11 PM Mon 57 57 N 10 4803 4540 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Tue 55 55 N 10 3658 4540 0 Blue 1
1 AM Tue 55 55 N 10 3658 4540 0 Blue 1
2 AM Tue 53 53 N 13 3301 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 52 52 N 13 3301 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 52 52 N 13 3301 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 52 52 N 13 3301 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 51 51 N 13 3301 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 51 51 N 13 3301 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 58 58 NE 15 4922 4540 0 Blue 4
9 AM Tue 66 67 NE 15 7899 6736 2196 Blue 13
10 AM Tue 71 74 NE 15 10157 9396 4856 Blue 20
11 AM Tue 75 79 NE 14 11363 10554 6014 White 25
12 Noon Tue 77 82 NE 14 11983 11355 6815 White 28
1 PM Tue 78 83 NE 14 12185 11620 7080 White 29
2 PM Tue 78 83 NE 10 12185 11620 7080 White 29
3 PM Tue 79 83 NE 10 12185 11620 7080 White 29
4 PM Tue 78 80 NE 10 11571 10820 6280 White 26
5 PM Tue 76 77 NW 8 10888 10106 5566 Blue 23
6 PM Tue 73 73 NW 8 9926 9156 4616 Blue 19
7 PM Tue 68 68 NW 8 8280 7111 2571 Blue 14
8 PM Tue 65 65 N 9 7157 5972 1432 Blue 11
9 PM Tue 62 62 N 9 6005 5035 495 Blue 8
10 PM Tue 59 59 N 9 5046 4540 0 Blue 5
11 PM Tue 59 59 N 10 5046 4540 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Wed 57 57 N 10 4803 4540 0 Blue 3
1 AM Wed 57 57 N 10 4803 4540 0 Blue 3
2 AM Wed 55 55 N 13 3658 4540 0 Blue 1
3 AM Wed 54 54 N 13 3456 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 54 54 N 13 3456 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 54 54 NE 13 3456 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 53 53 NE 13 3301 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 53 53 NE 13 3301 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 60 60 NE 16 5275 4797 257 Blue 6
9 AM Wed 68 69 NE 16 8909 7480 2940 Blue 15
10 AM Wed 73 76 NE 16 10616 9875 5335 Blue 22
11 AM Wed 77 82 NE 16 11983 11355 6815 White 28
12 Noon Wed 79 85 NE 16 12587 12587 8047 White 31
1 PM Wed 80 86 NE 16 12787 12787 8247 White 32
2 PM Wed 80 85 NE 14 12587 12587 8047 White 31
3 PM Wed 81 85 NE 14 12587 12587 8047 White 31
4 PM Wed 80 82 NE 14 11983 11355 6815 White 28
5 PM Wed 78 79 NE 12 11363 10554 6014 White 25
6 PM Wed 75 75 NE 12 10382 9636 5096 Blue 21
7 PM Wed 70 70 NE 12 9202 7845 3305 Blue 16
8 PM Wed 67 67 N 9 7899 6736 2196 Blue 13
9 PM Wed 64 64 N 9 6778 5581 1041 Blue 10
10 PM Wed 61 61 N 9 5609 4916 376 Blue 7
11 PM Wed 61 61 N 10 5609 4916 376 Blue 7
12 Midnight Thu 59 59 N 10 5046 4540 0 Blue 5
1 AM Thu 59 59 N 10 5046 4540 0 Blue 5
2 AM Thu 57 57 N 15 4803 4540 0 Blue 3
3 AM Thu 56 56 N 15 4383 4540 0 Blue 2
4 AM Thu 56 56 N 15 4383 4540 0 Blue 2
5 AM Thu 56 56 NE 15 4383 4540 0 Blue 2
6 AM Thu 55 55 NE 15 3658 4540 0 Blue 1
7 AM Thu 55 55 NE 15 3658 4540 0 Blue 1
8 AM Thu 62 62 NE 18 6005 5035 495 Blue 8
9 AM Thu 69 71 NE 18 9445 8216 3676 Blue 17
10 AM Thu 74 77 NE 18 10888 10106 5566 Blue 23
11 AM Thu 77 82 NE 20 11983 11355 6815 White 28
12 Noon Thu 79 85 NE 20 12587 12587 8047 White 31
1 PM Thu 80 86 NE 20 12787 12787 8247 White 32
2 PM Thu 80 85 NE 14 12587 12587 8047 White 31
3 PM Thu 81 85 NE 14 12587 12587 8047 White 31
4 PM Thu 80 82 NE 14 11983 11355 6815 White 28
5 PM Thu 78 79 N 10 11363 10554 6014 White 25
6 PM Thu 76 76 N 10 10616 9875 5335 Blue 22
7 PM Thu 71 71 N 10 9445 8216 3676 Blue 17
8 PM Thu 67 67 N 12 7899 6736 2196 Blue 13
9 PM Thu 64 64 N 12 6778 5581 1041 Blue 10
10 PM Thu 62 62 N 12 6005 5035 495 Blue 8
11 PM Thu 62 62 N 12 6005 5035 495 Blue 8
12 Midnight Fri 60 60 N 12 5275 4797 257 Blue 6
1 AM Fri 60 60 N 12 5275 4797 257 Blue 6
2 AM Fri 58 58 N 16 4922 4540 0 Blue 4
3 AM Fri 57 57 N 16 4803 4540 0 Blue 3
4 AM Fri 56 56 N 16 4383 4540 0 Blue 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst