Detailed Predictions for: Horse Canyon
Launch Altitude (f): 4540
LZ Altitude (f): 3300
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

19 JUN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 51 51 NE 6 3350 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 55 55 NE 6 3350 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 62 62 NE 5 3631 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 69 70 E 6 4414 4540 0 Blue 7
9 AM Tue 75 78 E 7 5792 5135 595 Blue 15
10 AM Tue 80 85 E 6 7389 6705 2165 Blue 22
11 AM Tue 83 90 E 7 8450 7785 3245 Blue 27
12 Noon Tue 85 93 E 6 9079 8416 3876 Blue 30
1 PM Tue 87 96 E 5 9703 9041 4501 Blue 33
2 PM Tue 86 94 SW 2 9288 8625 4085 Blue 31
3 PM Tue 86 92 W 5 8870 8206 3666 Blue 29
4 PM Tue 83 87 W 6 7815 7150 2610 Blue 24
5 PM Tue 79 81 W 8 6497 5773 1233 Blue 18
6 PM Tue 73 74 W 8 4945 4540 0 Blue 11
7 PM Tue 68 68 NW 7 4296 4540 0 Blue 5
8 PM Tue 63 63 N 5 3684 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 61 61 N 5 3578 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 60 60 N 5 3525 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 61 61 N 7 3578 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 61 61 N 7 3578 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 60 60 N 6 3525 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 59 59 NE 6 3473 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 57 57 NE 6 3368 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 55 55 NE 7 3350 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 57 57 NE 8 3368 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 63 63 NE 8 3684 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 72 72 NE 8 4677 4540 0 Blue 9
8 AM Wed 79 81 E 10 6497 5773 1233 Blue 18
9 AM Wed 84 87 E 10 7815 7150 2610 Blue 24
10 AM Wed 87 92 E 10 8870 8206 3666 Blue 29
11 AM Wed 89 96 E 12 9703 9041 4501 Blue 33
12 Noon Wed 90 98 E 12 10117 9455 4915 Blue 35
1 PM Wed 92 101 E 10 10760 10073 5533 Blue 38
2 PM Wed 94 102 E 9 10977 10277 5737 Blue 39
3 PM Wed 94 100 E 9 10541 9867 5327 Blue 37
4 PM Wed 94 98 E 7 10117 9455 4915 Blue 35
5 PM Wed 91 93 W 2 9079 8416 3876 Blue 30
6 PM Wed 85 86 NW 5 7602 6935 2395 Blue 23
7 PM Wed 77 77 NW 5 5548 4935 395 Blue 14
8 PM Wed 71 71 NW 5 4517 4540 0 Blue 8
9 PM Wed 66 66 N 5 4144 4540 0 Blue 3
10 PM Wed 65 65 N 6 3983 4540 0 Blue 2
11 PM Wed 64 64 N 7 3823 4540 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 64 64 N 7 3823 4540 0 Blue 1
1 AM Thu 63 63 N 7 3684 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 61 61 N 7 3578 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 59 59 N 6 3473 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 57 57 N 5 3368 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 59 59 NE 5 3473 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 65 65 NE 6 3983 4540 0 Blue 2
7 AM Thu 74 74 NE 6 4945 4540 0 Blue 11
8 AM Thu 82 83 E 5 6961 6242 1702 Blue 20
9 AM Thu 87 90 E 6 8450 7785 3245 Blue 27
10 AM Thu 90 95 E 6 9496 8833 4293 Blue 32
11 AM Thu 91 98 SE 6 10117 9455 4915 Blue 35
12 Noon Thu 93 101 SE 6 10760 10073 5533 Blue 38
1 PM Thu 94 103 S 3 11195 10491 5951 Blue 40
2 PM Thu 93 101 W 8 10760 10073 5533 Blue 38
3 PM Thu 93 99 W 10 10323 9662 5122 Blue 36
4 PM Thu 90 94 W 10 9288 8625 4085 Blue 31
5 PM Thu 85 87 W 10 7815 7150 2610 Blue 24
6 PM Thu 80 81 W 9 6497 5773 1233 Blue 18
7 PM Thu 74 74 NW 8 4945 4540 0 Blue 11
8 PM Thu 69 69 N 6 4356 4540 0 Blue 6
9 PM Thu 65 65 NW 7 3983 4540 0 Blue 2
10 PM Thu 62 62 NW 8 3631 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 60 60 N 9 3525 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 59 59 N 9 3473 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 59 59 N 10 3473 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 58 58 N 12 3420 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 58 58 N 12 3420 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 57 57 N 12 3368 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 57 57 NW 8 3368 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 59 59 NW 8 3473 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 62 62 NW 8 3631 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 68 69 NW 10 4356 4540 0 Blue 6
9 AM Fri 75 78 NW 10 5792 5135 595 Blue 15
10 AM Fri 83 88 NW 10 8027 7362 2822 Blue 25
11 AM Fri 90 97 NW 13 9910 9249 4709 Blue 34
12 Noon Fri 93 101 NW 13 10760 10073 5533 Blue 38
1 PM Fri 95 103 NW 13 11195 10491 5951 Blue 40
2 PM Fri 95 103 W 14 11195 10491 5951 Blue 40
3 PM Fri 95 101 W 14 10760 10073 5533 Blue 38
4 PM Fri 94 98 W 14 10117 9455 4915 Blue 35
5 PM Fri 90 92 W 14 8870 8206 3666 Blue 29
6 PM Fri 84 85 W 14 7389 6705 2165 Blue 22
7 PM Fri 77 77 W 14 5548 4935 395 Blue 14
8 PM Fri 71 71 NW 12 4517 4540 0 Blue 8
9 PM Fri 68 68 NW 12 4296 4540 0 Blue 5
10 PM Fri 66 66 NW 12 4144 4540 0 Blue 3
11 PM Fri 65 65 NW 10 3983 4540 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sat 65 65 NW 10 3983 4540 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sat 64 64 NW 10 3823 4540 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sat 62 62 NW 9 3631 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 59 59 NW 9 3473 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 57 57 NW 9 3368 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 58 58 NW 8 3420 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 63 63 NW 8 3684 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 70 70 NW 8 4414 4540 0 Blue 7
8 AM Sat 78 79 W 9 6029 5335 795 Blue 16
9 AM Sat 84 87 W 9 7815 7150 2610 Blue 24
10 AM Sat 89 94 W 9 9288 8625 4085 Blue 31
11 AM Sat 92 99 W 9 10323 9662 5122 Blue 36
12 Noon Sat 94 102 W 9 10977 10277 5737 Blue 39
1 PM Sat 94 103 W 9 11195 10491 5951 Blue 40
2 PM Sat 94 102 W 10 10977 10277 5737 Blue 39
3 PM Sat 92 98 W 10 10117 9455 4915 Blue 35
4 PM Sat 91 95 W 10 9496 8833 4293 Blue 32
5 PM Sat 87 89 W 10 8239 7574 3034 Blue 26
6 PM Sat 82 83 W 10 6961 6242 1702 Blue 20
7 PM Sat 76 76 W 10 5348 4781 241 Blue 13
8 PM Sat 71 71 W 7 4517 4540 0 Blue 8
9 PM Sat 66 66 W 7 4144 4540 0 Blue 3
10 PM Sat 62 62 W 7 3631 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 60 60 NW 2 3525 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 58 58 NW 2 3420 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 57 57 NW 2 3368 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 56 56 NW 2 3350 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 54 54 NW 2 3350 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 53 53 NW 2 3350 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 54 54 N 3 3350 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 59 59 N 3 3473 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 65 65 N 3 3983 4540 0 Blue 2
8 AM Sun 71 72 W 5 4677 4540 0 Blue 9
9 AM Sun 76 79 W 5 6029 5335 795 Blue 16
10 AM Sun 79 84 W 5 7175 6474 1934 Blue 21
11 AM Sun 81 88 SW 7 8027 7362 2822 Blue 25
12 Noon Sun 83 91 SW 7 8660 7996 3456 Blue 28
1 PM Sun 84 93 SW 7 9079 8416 3876 Blue 30
2 PM Sun 84 92 SW 8 8870 8206 3666 Blue 29
3 PM Sun 84 90 SW 8 8450 7785 3245 Blue 27
4 PM Sun 83 87 SW 8 7815 7150 2610 Blue 24
5 PM Sun 81 83 W 8 6961 6242 1702 Blue 20
6 PM Sun 77 78 W 8 5792 5135 595 Blue 15
7 PM Sun 72 72 W 8 4677 4540 0 Blue 9
8 PM Sun 68 68 W 6 4296 4540 0 Blue 5
9 PM Sun 64 64 W 6 3823 4540 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 62 62 W 6 3631 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 60 60 NW 3 3525 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 58 58 NW 3 3420 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 57 57 NW 3 3368 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 55 55 NW 3 3350 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 54 54 NW 3 3350 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 53 53 NW 3 3350 4540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst