Detailed Predictions for: Kagel
Launch Altitude (f): 3540
LZ Altitude (f): 1340
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 AUG 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 69 69 SW 3 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 69 69 SW 3 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 70 70 SW 3 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 74 74 SW 2 2852 3540 0 Blue 2
9 AM Sat 78 80 SW 2 3446 3540 0 Blue 8
10 AM Sat 80 84 SW 2 4483 3642 102 Blue 12
11 AM Sat 83 89 SW 7 6420 5136 1596 Blue 17
12 Noon Sat 85 92 SW 7 8225 6283 2743 Blue 20
1 PM Sat 87 95 SW 7 9073 8156 4616 Blue 23
2 PM Sat 89 96 SW 9 9861 8544 5004 White 24
3 PM Sat 89 95 SW 9 9073 8156 4616 Blue 23
4 PM Sat 88 92 SW 9 8225 6283 2743 Blue 20
5 PM Sat 87 89 S 8 6420 5136 1596 Blue 17
6 PM Sat 85 86 S 8 5156 4047 507 Blue 14
7 PM Sat 82 82 S 8 3851 3540 0 Blue 10
8 PM Sat 78 78 S 7 3281 3540 0 Blue 6
9 PM Sat 76 76 S 7 3078 3540 0 Blue 4
10 PM Sat 74 74 S 7 2852 3540 0 Blue 2
11 PM Sat 73 73 SW 5 2756 3540 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sun 73 73 SW 5 2756 3540 0 Blue 1
1 AM Sun 71 71 SW 5 2560 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 70 70 NW 3 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 70 70 NW 3 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 69 69 NW 3 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 68 68 N 3 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 68 68 N 3 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 69 69 N 3 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 74 74 N 3 2852 3540 0 Blue 2
9 AM Sun 77 79 N 3 3349 3540 0 Blue 7
10 AM Sun 80 84 N 3 4483 3642 102 Blue 12
11 AM Sun 83 88 SW 8 5663 4805 1265 Blue 16
12 Noon Sun 86 93 SW 8 8618 7360 3820 Blue 21
1 PM Sun 88 95 SW 8 9073 8156 4616 Blue 23
2 PM Sun 90 97 SW 8 10079 8811 5271 White 25
3 PM Sun 90 96 SW 8 9861 8544 5004 White 24
4 PM Sun 89 93 SW 8 8618 7360 3820 Blue 21
5 PM Sun 88 90 SW 7 7421 5388 1848 Blue 18
6 PM Sun 86 87 SW 7 5410 4463 923 Blue 15
7 PM Sun 83 83 SW 7 4072 3540 0 Blue 11
8 PM Sun 79 79 SW 7 3349 3540 0 Blue 7
9 PM Sun 77 77 SW 7 3191 3540 0 Blue 5
10 PM Sun 75 75 SW 7 2965 3540 0 Blue 3
11 PM Sun 74 74 S 2 2852 3540 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Mon 74 74 S 2 2852 3540 0 Blue 2
1 AM Mon 72 72 S 2 2664 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 71 71 S 2 2560 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 71 71 S 2 2560 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 70 70 S 2 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 69 69 SW 2 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 69 69 SW 2 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 70 70 SW 2 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 75 75 SW 2 2965 3540 0 Blue 3
9 AM Mon 78 80 SW 2 3446 3540 0 Blue 8
10 AM Mon 81 85 SW 2 4828 3843 303 Blue 13
11 AM Mon 84 89 SW 12 6420 5136 1596 Blue 17
12 Noon Mon 87 94 SW 12 8854 7761 4221 Blue 22
1 PM Mon 89 96 SW 12 9861 8544 5004 White 24
2 PM Mon 91 98 SW 12 10310 9029 5489 White 26
3 PM Mon 91 97 SW 12 10079 8811 5271 White 25
4 PM Mon 90 94 SW 12 8854 7761 4221 Blue 22
5 PM Mon 89 91 SW 10 7826 5639 2099 Blue 19
6 PM Mon 87 88 SW 10 5663 4805 1265 Blue 16
7 PM Mon 83 83 SW 10 4072 3540 0 Blue 11
8 PM Mon 79 79 SW 10 3349 3540 0 Blue 7
9 PM Mon 76 76 SW 10 3078 3540 0 Blue 4
10 PM Mon 75 75 SW 10 2965 3540 0 Blue 3
11 PM Mon 74 74 S 5 2852 3540 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Tue 73 73 S 5 2756 3540 0 Blue 1
1 AM Tue 72 72 S 5 2664 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 70 70 S 5 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 70 70 S 5 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 69 69 S 5 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 69 69 S 3 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 68 68 S 3 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 69 69 S 3 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 74 74 S 3 2852 3540 0 Blue 2
9 AM Tue 78 80 S 3 3446 3540 0 Blue 8
10 AM Tue 81 85 S 3 4828 3843 303 Blue 13
11 AM Tue 84 89 SW 10 6420 5136 1596 Blue 17
12 Noon Tue 87 94 SW 10 8854 7761 4221 Blue 22
1 PM Tue 89 96 SW 10 9861 8544 5004 White 24
2 PM Tue 91 98 SW 10 10310 9029 5489 White 26
3 PM Tue 91 97 SW 10 10079 8811 5271 White 25
4 PM Tue 90 94 SW 10 8854 7761 4221 Blue 22
5 PM Tue 89 91 SW 10 7826 5639 2099 Blue 19
6 PM Tue 87 88 SW 10 5663 4805 1265 Blue 16
7 PM Tue 83 83 SW 10 4072 3540 0 Blue 11
8 PM Tue 79 79 SW 10 3349 3540 0 Blue 7
9 PM Tue 76 76 SW 10 3078 3540 0 Blue 4
10 PM Tue 75 75 SW 10 2965 3540 0 Blue 3
11 PM Tue 74 74 S 5 2852 3540 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Wed 73 73 S 5 2756 3540 0 Blue 1
1 AM Wed 72 72 S 5 2664 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 70 70 S 5 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 70 70 S 5 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 69 69 S 5 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 69 69 SE 3 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 68 68 SE 3 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 69 69 SE 3 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 74 74 SE 3 2852 3540 0 Blue 2
9 AM Wed 78 80 SE 3 3446 3540 0 Blue 8
10 AM Wed 81 85 SE 3 4828 3843 303 Blue 13
11 AM Wed 84 89 SW 13 6420 5136 1596 Blue 17
12 Noon Wed 87 93 SW 13 8618 7360 3820 Blue 21
1 PM Wed 89 95 SW 13 9073 8156 4616 Blue 23
2 PM Wed 91 97 SW 13 10079 8811 5271 White 25
3 PM Wed 91 96 SW 13 9861 8544 5004 White 24
4 PM Wed 90 93 SW 13 8618 7360 3820 Blue 21
5 PM Wed 89 91 SW 12 7826 5639 2099 Blue 19
6 PM Wed 87 87 SW 12 5410 4463 923 Blue 15
7 PM Wed 83 83 SW 12 4072 3540 0 Blue 11
8 PM Wed 79 79 SW 12 3349 3540 0 Blue 7
9 PM Wed 76 76 SW 12 3078 3540 0 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 75 75 SW 12 2965 3540 0 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 74 74 S 6 2852 3540 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Thu 73 73 S 6 2756 3540 0 Blue 1
1 AM Thu 72 72 S 6 2664 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 70 70 S 6 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 70 70 S 6 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 69 69 S 6 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 69 69 SE 5 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 68 68 SE 5 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 69 69 SE 5 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 74 74 SE 5 2852 3540 0 Blue 2
9 AM Thu 77 79 SE 5 3349 3540 0 Blue 7
10 AM Thu 80 84 SE 5 4483 3642 102 Blue 12
11 AM Thu 83 88 S 13 5663 4805 1265 Blue 16
12 Noon Thu 86 92 S 13 8225 6283 2743 Blue 20
1 PM Thu 88 94 S 13 8854 7761 4221 Blue 22
2 PM Thu 90 96 S 13 9861 8544 5004 White 24
3 PM Thu 90 95 S 13 9073 8156 4616 Blue 23
4 PM Thu 89 92 S 13 8225 6283 2743 Blue 20
5 PM Thu 88 90 S 13 7421 5388 1848 Blue 18
6 PM Thu 86 86 S 13 5156 4047 507 Blue 14
7 PM Thu 82 82 S 13 3851 3540 0 Blue 10
8 PM Thu 79 79 S 13 3349 3540 0 Blue 7
9 PM Thu 76 76 S 13 3078 3540 0 Blue 4
10 PM Thu 75 75 S 13 2965 3540 0 Blue 3
11 PM Thu 74 74 S 7 2852 3540 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Fri 73 73 S 7 2756 3540 0 Blue 1
1 AM Fri 71 71 S 7 2560 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 70 70 S 7 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 70 70 S 7 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 69 69 S 7 2546 3540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst