Detailed Predictions for: Kagel
Launch Altitude (f): 3540
LZ Altitude (f): 1340
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Thu 61 61 NW 1 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 60 60 NW 1 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 60 60 NW 1 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 61 61 S 2 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 62 62 S 2 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 64 64 S 2 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 65 66 S 6 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 66 68 S 6 2893 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 67 69 S 6 3075 3540 0 Blue 1
1 PM Thu 67 69 S 13 3075 3540 0 Blue 1
2 PM Thu 67 68 S 13 2893 3540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 66 66 S 13 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 65 65 S 13 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 64 64 S 13 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 63 63 S 13 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 62 62 S 8 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 61 61 S 8 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 61 61 S 8 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 60 60 S 5 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 59 59 S 5 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 58 58 S 5 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 57 57 W 2 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 56 56 W 2 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 55 55 W 2 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 54 54 S 5 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 53 53 S 5 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 53 53 S 5 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 56 56 S 9 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 52 52 S 9 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 55 55 S 9 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 55 56 W 9 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 54 55 W 9 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 53 54 W 9 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 53 54 NW 13 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 52 53 NW 13 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 51 51 NW 13 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 50 50 NW 20 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 49 49 NW 20 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 48 48 NW 20 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 47 47 NW 20 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 47 47 NW 20 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 46 46 NW 20 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 45 45 N 18 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 43 43 N 18 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 41 41 N 18 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 39 39 N 18 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 38 38 N 18 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 38 38 N 18 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 37 37 N 18 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 37 37 N 18 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 37 37 N 18 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 37 37 N 18 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 38 38 N 18 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 39 39 N 18 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 41 42 NW 12 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 43 45 NW 12 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 45 47 NW 12 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 46 48 NW 12 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 47 48 NW 12 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 47 48 NW 12 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 46 46 NW 12 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 44 44 NW 12 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 41 41 NW 12 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 39 39 NW 12 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 38 38 NW 12 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 38 38 NW 12 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 38 38 N 16 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 39 39 N 16 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 39 39 N 16 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 39 39 N 16 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 40 40 N 16 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 40 40 N 16 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 40 40 NE 9 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 40 40 NE 9 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 40 40 NE 9 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 40 40 NE 9 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 41 41 NE 9 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 43 43 NE 9 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 45 46 NW 2 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 47 48 NW 2 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 48 50 NW 2 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 50 51 NW 2 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 51 52 NW 2 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 52 52 NW 2 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 52 52 NW 2 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 52 52 NW 2 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 51 51 NW 2 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 49 49 NW 2 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 47 47 NW 2 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 46 46 NW 2 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 44 44 N 6 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 43 43 N 6 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 42 42 N 6 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 42 42 N 6 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 42 42 N 6 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 42 42 N 6 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 43 43 N 6 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 43 43 N 6 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 44 44 N 6 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 45 45 N 6 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 46 46 N 6 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 48 48 N 6 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 49 50 NW 7 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 52 53 NW 7 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 54 55 NW 7 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 56 57 NW 7 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 58 59 NW 7 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 59 59 NW 7 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 59 59 NW 7 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 58 58 NW 7 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 57 57 NW 7 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 55 55 NW 7 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 52 52 NW 7 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 50 50 NW 7 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 48 48 N 10 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 47 47 N 10 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 46 46 N 10 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 46 46 N 10 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 46 46 N 10 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 46 46 N 10 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 47 47 N 10 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 48 48 N 10 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 48 48 N 10 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 49 49 N 10 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 51 51 N 10 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 52 52 N 10 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 53 54 N 6 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 55 57 N 6 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 57 59 N 6 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 58 60 N 6 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 60 61 N 6 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 61 61 N 6 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 61 61 N 6 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 61 61 N 6 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 60 60 N 6 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 58 58 N 6 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 56 56 N 6 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 54 54 N 6 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 53 53 NE 8 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 51 51 NE 8 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 50 50 NE 8 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 49 49 NE 8 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 49 49 NE 8 2277 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 49 49 NE 8 2277 3540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst