Detailed Predictions for: Kagel
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.3333769599, -118.384563808, 3540
LZ Altitude (f): 1340
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

16 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 56 56 S 5 6 2523 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 57 57 S 5 6 2533 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 56 56 S 5 6 2523 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 55 55 S 5 6 2512 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 54 54 S 5 6 2502 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 54 54 S 5 6 2502 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 54 54 S 5 6 2502 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 54 54 S 5 6 2502 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 58 58 S 6 8 2543 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 62 63 S 6 8 2594 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 65 68 S 6 8 2653 3540 0 Blue 1
11 AM Thu 68 73 S 11 16 2892 3540 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Thu 69 75 S 11 16 3277 3540 0 Blue 8
1 PM Thu 71 77 S 11 16 3811 3540 0 Blue 10
2 PM Thu 73 79 S 16 23 4341 3540 0 Blue 12
3 PM Thu 73 77 S 16 23 3811 3540 0 Blue 10
4 PM Thu 73 76 S 16 23 3545 3540 0 Blue 9
5 PM Thu 72 73 S 16 23 2892 3540 0 Blue 6
6 PM Thu 70 70 S 16 23 2697 3540 0 Blue 3
7 PM Thu 67 67 S 16 23 2634 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 62 62 S 10 13 2583 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 60 60 S 10 13 2563 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 59 59 S 10 13 2553 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 58 58 S 4 5 2543 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 57 57 S 4 5 2533 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 57 57 S 4 5 2533 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 56 56 SSE 4 5 2523 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 56 56 SSE 4 5 2523 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 55 55 SSE 4 5 2512 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 55 55 S 4 5 2512 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 55 55 S 4 5 2512 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 55 55 S 4 5 2512 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 59 59 SSE 6 8 2553 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 63 64 SSE 6 8 2604 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 66 69 SSE 6 8 2675 3540 0 Blue 2
11 AM Fri 69 74 S 13 19 3007 3540 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Fri 70 76 S 13 19 3545 3540 0 Blue 9
1 PM Fri 72 78 S 13 19 4077 3540 0 Blue 11
2 PM Fri 74 80 S 17 25 4603 3801 261 Blue 13
3 PM Fri 74 78 S 17 25 4077 3540 0 Blue 11
4 PM Fri 74 77 S 17 25 3811 3540 0 Blue 10
5 PM Fri 73 74 S 17 25 3007 3540 0 Blue 7
6 PM Fri 71 71 S 17 25 2720 3540 0 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 67 67 S 17 25 2634 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 63 63 S 11 16 2594 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 61 61 S 11 16 2573 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 59 59 S 11 16 2553 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 58 58 SSE 9 11 2543 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 57 57 SSE 9 11 2533 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 57 57 SSE 9 11 2533 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 56 56 SSE 9 11 2523 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 56 56 SSE 9 11 2523 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 55 55 SSE 9 11 2512 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 55 55 SSE 9 11 2512 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 55 55 SSE 9 11 2512 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 55 55 SSE 9 11 2512 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 59 59 S 8 9 2553 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 64 65 S 8 9 2614 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 67 70 S 8 9 2697 3540 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 70 75 S 12 18 3277 3540 0 Blue 8
12 Noon Sat 72 78 S 12 18 4077 3540 0 Blue 11
1 PM Sat 74 80 S 12 18 4603 3801 261 Blue 13
2 PM Sat 76 82 S 14 21 5037 4326 786 Blue 15
3 PM Sat 76 80 S 14 21 4603 3801 261 Blue 13
4 PM Sat 76 79 S 14 21 4341 3540 0 Blue 12
5 PM Sat 75 76 S 14 21 3545 3540 0 Blue 9
6 PM Sat 73 73 S 14 21 2892 3540 0 Blue 6
7 PM Sat 69 69 S 14 21 2675 3540 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 65 65 SW 6 8 2614 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 63 63 SW 6 8 2594 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 61 61 SW 6 8 2573 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 60 60 SSW 5 6 2563 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 59 59 SSW 5 6 2553 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 59 59 SSW 5 6 2553 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 58 58 SSW 5 6 2543 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 58 58 SSW 5 6 2543 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 57 57 SSW 5 6 2533 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 57 57 N 6 8 2533 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 57 57 N 6 8 2533 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 57 57 N 6 8 2533 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 60 60 SW 6 8 2563 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 64 65 SW 6 8 2614 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 67 70 SW 6 8 2697 3540 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 69 73 SSW 11 16 2892 3540 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Sun 70 76 SSW 11 16 3545 3540 0 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 72 78 SSW 11 16 4077 3540 0 Blue 11
2 PM Sun 74 79 SW 17 25 4341 3540 0 Blue 12
3 PM Sun 74 78 SW 17 25 4077 3540 0 Blue 11
4 PM Sun 74 77 SW 17 25 3811 3540 0 Blue 10
5 PM Sun 73 74 SW 16 23 3007 3540 0 Blue 7
6 PM Sun 71 71 SW 16 23 2720 3540 0 Blue 4
7 PM Sun 68 68 SW 16 23 2653 3540 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 64 64 SW 8 9 2604 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 62 62 SW 8 9 2583 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 60 60 SW 8 9 2563 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 59 59 S 6 8 2553 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 59 59 S 6 8 2553 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 59 59 S 6 8 2553 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 58 58 N 9 11 2543 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 58 58 N 9 11 2543 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 57 57 N 9 11 2533 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 57 57 NNE 10 13 2533 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 57 57 NNE 10 13 2533 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 57 57 NNE 10 13 2533 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 61 61 NNE 10 13 2573 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 65 66 NNE 10 13 2624 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 67 70 NNE 10 13 2697 3540 0 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 70 74 NE 13 19 3007 3540 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Mon 71 77 NE 13 19 3811 3540 0 Blue 10
1 PM Mon 73 79 NE 13 19 4341 3540 0 Blue 12
2 PM Mon 75 80 SE 17 25 4603 3801 261 Blue 13
3 PM Mon 75 79 SE 17 25 4341 3540 0 Blue 12
4 PM Mon 75 78 SE 17 25 4077 3540 0 Blue 11
5 PM Mon 74 75 S 16 23 3277 3540 0 Blue 8
6 PM Mon 72 72 S 16 23 2796 3540 0 Blue 5
7 PM Mon 69 69 S 16 23 2675 3540 0 Blue 2
8 PM Mon 65 65 E 8 9 2614 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 64 64 E 8 9 2604 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 62 62 E 8 9 2583 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 61 61 ENE 8 9 2573 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 60 60 ENE 8 9 2563 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 61 61 ENE 8 9 2573 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 60 60 NE 8 9 2563 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 60 60 NE 8 9 2563 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 59 59 NE 8 9 2553 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 59 59 NE 10 13 2553 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 59 59 NE 10 13 2553 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 59 59 NE 10 13 2553 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 63 63 NE 10 13 2594 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 68 69 NE 10 13 2675 3540 0 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 71 74 NE 10 13 3007 3540 0 Blue 7
11 AM Tue 74 79 ENE 14 21 4341 3540 0 Blue 12
12 Noon Tue 76 82 ENE 14 21 5037 4326 786 Blue 15
1 PM Tue 78 84 ENE 14 21 5371 4847 1307 Blue 17
2 PM Tue 80 86 ESE 18 26 5705 5191 1651 Blue 19
3 PM Tue 80 84 ESE 18 26 5371 4847 1307 Blue 17
4 PM Tue 80 83 ESE 18 26 5204 4587 1047 Blue 16
5 PM Tue 79 80 S 14 21 4603 3801 261 Blue 13
6 PM Tue 77 77 S 14 21 3811 3540 0 Blue 10
7 PM Tue 73 73 S 14 21 2892 3540 0 Blue 6
8 PM Tue 69 69 SSE 9 11 2675 3540 0 Blue 2
9 PM Tue 67 67 SSE 9 11 2634 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 65 65 SSE 9 11 2614 3540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst