Detailed Predictions for: Kagel
Launch Altitude (f): 3540
LZ Altitude (f): 1340
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

15 JUN 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 56 56 S 3 3398 3540 0 Blue 3
6 AM Sat 56 56 S 3 3398 3540 0 Blue 3
7 AM Sat 58 58 S 3 3441 3540 0 Blue 5
8 AM Sat 61 62 SW 2 3526 3540 0 Blue 9
9 AM Sat 64 66 SW 2 3667 3558 18 Blue 13
10 AM Sat 66 70 SW 2 3845 3702 162 Blue 16
11 AM Sat 68 75 SW 7 4145 3950 410 Blue 21
12 Noon Sat 71 79 SW 7 4417 4210 670 Blue 25
1 PM Sat 72 81 SW 7 4606 4346 806 Blue 27
2 PM Sat 73 81 SW 12 4606 4346 806 Blue 27
3 PM Sat 74 81 SW 12 4606 4346 806 Blue 27
4 PM Sat 74 79 SW 12 4417 4210 670 Blue 25
5 PM Sat 73 76 SW 13 4213 4007 467 Blue 22
6 PM Sat 72 73 SW 13 4010 3843 303 Blue 19
7 PM Sat 70 70 SW 13 3845 3702 162 Blue 16
8 PM Sat 67 67 SW 10 3703 3594 54 Blue 14
9 PM Sat 64 64 SW 10 3595 3540 0 Blue 11
10 PM Sat 63 63 SW 10 3559 3540 0 Blue 10
11 PM Sat 62 62 S 6 3526 3540 0 Blue 9
12 Midnight Sun 61 61 S 6 3505 3540 0 Blue 8
1 AM Sun 59 59 S 6 3462 3540 0 Blue 6
2 AM Sun 59 59 S 6 3462 3540 0 Blue 6
3 AM Sun 59 59 S 6 3462 3540 0 Blue 6
4 AM Sun 59 59 S 6 3462 3540 0 Blue 6
5 AM Sun 58 58 SW 3 3441 3540 0 Blue 5
6 AM Sun 58 58 SW 3 3441 3540 0 Blue 5
7 AM Sun 59 59 SW 3 3462 3540 0 Blue 6
8 AM Sun 62 63 SW 3 3559 3540 0 Blue 10
9 AM Sun 65 67 SW 3 3703 3594 54 Blue 14
10 AM Sun 66 70 SW 3 3845 3702 162 Blue 16
11 AM Sun 68 75 S 9 4145 3950 410 Blue 21
12 Noon Sun 70 78 S 9 4349 4142 602 Blue 24
1 PM Sun 72 81 S 9 4606 4346 806 Blue 27
2 PM Sun 72 80 S 10 4486 4278 738 Blue 26
3 PM Sun 73 80 S 10 4486 4278 738 Blue 26
4 PM Sun 73 78 S 10 4349 4142 602 Blue 24
5 PM Sun 72 75 S 12 4145 3950 410 Blue 21
6 PM Sun 71 72 S 12 3953 3789 249 Blue 18
7 PM Sun 69 69 S 12 3791 3666 126 Blue 15
8 PM Sun 66 66 S 12 3667 3558 18 Blue 13
9 PM Sun 63 63 S 12 3559 3540 0 Blue 10
10 PM Sun 62 62 S 12 3526 3540 0 Blue 9
11 PM Sun 61 61 S 5 3505 3540 0 Blue 8
12 Midnight Mon 60 60 S 5 3483 3540 0 Blue 7
1 AM Mon 58 58 S 5 3441 3540 0 Blue 5
2 AM Mon 58 58 S 5 3441 3540 0 Blue 5
3 AM Mon 58 58 S 5 3441 3540 0 Blue 5
4 AM Mon 58 58 S 5 3441 3540 0 Blue 5
5 AM Mon 57 57 E 1 3419 3540 0 Blue 4
6 AM Mon 57 57 E 1 3419 3540 0 Blue 4
7 AM Mon 59 59 E 1 3462 3540 0 Blue 6
8 AM Mon 61 61 E 1 3505 3540 0 Blue 8
9 AM Mon 64 65 E 1 3631 3540 0 Blue 12
10 AM Mon 66 68 E 1 3739 3630 90 Blue 15
11 AM Mon 68 75 SW 12 4145 3950 410 Blue 21
12 Noon Mon 70 78 SW 12 4349 4142 602 Blue 24
1 PM Mon 71 79 SW 12 4417 4210 670 Blue 25
2 PM Mon 72 80 SW 12 4486 4278 738 Blue 26
3 PM Mon 73 79 SW 12 4417 4210 670 Blue 25
4 PM Mon 73 77 SW 12 4281 4074 534 Blue 23
5 PM Mon 72 74 S 9 4077 3897 357 Blue 20
6 PM Mon 71 72 S 9 3953 3789 249 Blue 18
7 PM Mon 69 69 S 9 3791 3666 126 Blue 15
8 PM Mon 66 66 S 9 3667 3558 18 Blue 13
9 PM Mon 64 64 S 9 3595 3540 0 Blue 11
10 PM Mon 63 63 S 9 3559 3540 0 Blue 10
11 PM Mon 62 62 S 3 3526 3540 0 Blue 9
12 Midnight Tue 60 60 S 3 3483 3540 0 Blue 7
1 AM Tue 59 59 S 3 3462 3540 0 Blue 6
2 AM Tue 59 59 S 3 3462 3540 0 Blue 6
3 AM Tue 59 59 S 3 3462 3540 0 Blue 6
4 AM Tue 59 59 S 3 3462 3540 0 Blue 6
5 AM Tue 58 58 E 5 3441 3540 0 Blue 5
6 AM Tue 58 58 E 5 3441 3540 0 Blue 5
7 AM Tue 60 60 E 5 3483 3540 0 Blue 7
8 AM Tue 63 64 E 5 3595 3540 0 Blue 11
9 AM Tue 66 69 E 5 3791 3666 126 Blue 15
10 AM Tue 68 73 E 5 4010 3843 303 Blue 19
11 AM Tue 71 78 SW 12 4349 4142 602 Blue 24
12 Noon Tue 73 81 SW 12 4606 4346 806 Blue 27
1 PM Tue 75 83 SW 12 4934 4481 941 Blue 29
2 PM Tue 76 84 SW 12 5153 4596 1056 Blue 30
3 PM Tue 77 83 SW 12 4934 4481 941 Blue 29
4 PM Tue 77 81 SW 12 4606 4346 806 Blue 27
5 PM Tue 76 78 SW 12 4349 4142 602 Blue 24
6 PM Tue 75 76 SW 12 4213 4007 467 Blue 22
7 PM Tue 73 73 SW 12 4010 3843 303 Blue 19
8 PM Tue 70 70 SW 12 3845 3702 162 Blue 16
9 PM Tue 67 67 SW 12 3703 3594 54 Blue 14
10 PM Tue 66 66 SW 12 3667 3558 18 Blue 13
11 PM Tue 65 65 SW 7 3631 3540 0 Blue 12
12 Midnight Wed 64 64 SW 7 3595 3540 0 Blue 11
1 AM Wed 62 62 SW 7 3526 3540 0 Blue 9
2 AM Wed 62 62 SW 7 3526 3540 0 Blue 9
3 AM Wed 62 62 SW 7 3526 3540 0 Blue 9
4 AM Wed 62 62 SW 7 3526 3540 0 Blue 9
5 AM Wed 61 61 SW 7 3505 3540 0 Blue 8
6 AM Wed 61 61 SW 7 3505 3540 0 Blue 8
7 AM Wed 63 63 SW 7 3559 3540 0 Blue 10
8 AM Wed 65 66 SW 7 3667 3558 18 Blue 13
9 AM Wed 68 71 SW 7 3899 3738 198 Blue 17
10 AM Wed 70 75 SW 7 4145 3950 410 Blue 21
11 AM Wed 72 79 SW 13 4417 4210 670 Blue 25
12 Noon Wed 75 83 SW 13 4934 4481 941 Blue 29
1 PM Wed 76 85 SW 13 5387 4753 1213 Blue 31
2 PM Wed 77 85 SW 13 5387 4753 1213 Blue 31
3 PM Wed 78 85 SW 13 5387 4753 1213 Blue 31
4 PM Wed 78 83 SW 13 4934 4481 941 Blue 29
5 PM Wed 77 80 SW 15 4486 4278 738 Blue 26
6 PM Wed 76 77 SW 15 4281 4074 534 Blue 23
7 PM Wed 73 73 SW 15 4010 3843 303 Blue 19
8 PM Wed 70 70 SW 15 3845 3702 162 Blue 16
9 PM Wed 68 68 SW 15 3739 3630 90 Blue 15
10 PM Wed 66 66 SW 15 3667 3558 18 Blue 13
11 PM Wed 65 65 SW 8 3631 3540 0 Blue 12
12 Midnight Thu 64 64 SW 8 3595 3540 0 Blue 11
1 AM Thu 63 63 SW 8 3559 3540 0 Blue 10
2 AM Thu 62 62 SW 8 3526 3540 0 Blue 9
3 AM Thu 62 62 SW 8 3526 3540 0 Blue 9
4 AM Thu 62 62 SW 8 3526 3540 0 Blue 9
5 AM Thu 61 61 S 8 3505 3540 0 Blue 8
6 AM Thu 61 61 S 8 3505 3540 0 Blue 8
7 AM Thu 62 62 S 8 3526 3540 0 Blue 9
8 AM Thu 65 66 S 8 3667 3558 18 Blue 13
9 AM Thu 68 70 S 8 3845 3702 162 Blue 16
10 AM Thu 69 73 S 8 4010 3843 303 Blue 19
11 AM Thu 71 78 S 14 4349 4142 602 Blue 24
12 Noon Thu 73 81 S 14 4606 4346 806 Blue 27
1 PM Thu 75 84 S 14 5153 4596 1056 Blue 30
2 PM Thu 75 83 S 14 4934 4481 941 Blue 29
3 PM Thu 76 83 S 14 4934 4481 941 Blue 29
4 PM Thu 76 81 S 14 4606 4346 806 Blue 27
5 PM Thu 75 78 SW 10 4349 4142 602 Blue 24
6 PM Thu 74 75 SW 10 4145 3950 410 Blue 21
7 PM Thu 72 72 SW 10 3953 3789 249 Blue 18
8 PM Thu 69 69 SW 10 3791 3666 126 Blue 15
9 PM Thu 66 66 SW 10 3667 3558 18 Blue 13
10 PM Thu 65 65 SW 10 3631 3540 0 Blue 12
11 PM Thu 64 64 S 9 3595 3540 0 Blue 11
12 Midnight Fri 63 63 S 9 3559 3540 0 Blue 10
1 AM Fri 61 61 S 9 3505 3540 0 Blue 8
2 AM Fri 61 61 S 9 3505 3540 0 Blue 8
3 AM Fri 61 61 S 9 3505 3540 0 Blue 8
4 AM Fri 61 61 S 9 3505 3540 0 Blue 8

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst