Detailed Predictions for: Kagel
Launch Altitude (f): 3540
LZ Altitude (f): 1340
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

16 FEB 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sat 37 37 NW 12 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 37 37 NW 12 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 37 37 NW 12 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 38 38 NW 12 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 39 39 NW 12 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 43 44 NW 12 3179 3540 0 White 2
10 AM Sat 45 46 NW 16 3618 3540 0 White 4
11 AM Sat 46 48 NW 16 4055 4055 515 White 6
12 Noon Sat 47 49 NW 16 4273 4273 733 White 7
1 PM Sat 47 49 NW 16 4273 4273 733 White 7
2 PM Sat 47 49 NW 16 4273 4273 733 White 7
3 PM Sat 47 48 NW 16 4055 4055 515 White 6
4 PM Sat 46 46 NW 16 3618 3540 0 White 4
5 PM Sat 44 44 NW 16 3179 3540 0 White 2
6 PM Sat 40 40 NW 16 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 39 39 NW 16 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 38 38 NW 16 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 38 38 NW 16 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 38 38 N 12 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 38 38 N 12 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 37 37 N 12 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 37 37 NW 13 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 36 36 NW 13 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 37 37 NW 13 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 36 36 NW 9 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 36 36 NW 9 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 36 36 NW 9 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 36 36 NW 9 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 38 38 NW 9 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 40 40 NW 9 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 41 41 SW 12 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 42 43 SW 12 2957 3540 0 White 1
12 Noon Sun 43 44 SW 12 3179 3540 0 White 2
1 PM Sun 43 44 SW 12 3179 3540 0 White 2
2 PM Sun 43 43 SW 12 2957 3540 0 White 1
3 PM Sun 43 43 SW 12 2957 3540 0 White 1
4 PM Sun 42 42 NW 12 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 39 39 NW 12 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 34 34 NW 12 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 32 32 NW 12 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 31 31 NW 12 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 31 31 NW 12 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 31 31 N 17 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 30 30 N 17 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 30 30 N 17 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 29 29 N 17 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 29 29 N 17 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 30 30 N 17 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 29 29 N 17 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 28 28 N 17 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 29 29 N 17 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 29 29 N 17 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 32 32 N 17 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 38 39 N 17 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 41 43 N 9 2957 3540 0 White 1
11 AM Mon 43 46 N 9 3618 3540 0 White 4
12 Noon Mon 45 48 N 9 4055 4055 515 White 6
1 PM Mon 45 48 N 9 4055 4055 515 White 6
2 PM Mon 45 47 N 9 3837 3837 297 White 5
3 PM Mon 45 46 N 9 3618 3540 0 White 4
4 PM Mon 44 44 N 14 3179 3540 0 White 2
5 PM Mon 42 42 N 14 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 38 38 N 14 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 37 37 N 14 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 35 35 N 14 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 36 36 N 14 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 36 36 N 15 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 35 35 N 15 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 34 34 N 15 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 34 34 N 15 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 34 34 N 15 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 34 34 N 15 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 34 34 NE 18 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 33 33 NE 18 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 34 34 NE 18 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 34 34 NE 18 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 36 36 NE 18 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 41 42 NE 18 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 43 45 W 9 3398 3540 0 White 3
11 AM Tue 44 47 W 9 3837 3837 297 White 5
12 Noon Tue 46 50 W 9 4493 4493 953 White 8
1 PM Tue 46 49 W 9 4273 4273 733 White 7
2 PM Tue 46 48 W 9 4055 4055 515 White 6
3 PM Tue 46 47 W 9 3837 3837 297 White 5
4 PM Tue 45 45 W 10 3398 3540 0 White 3
5 PM Tue 43 43 W 10 2957 3540 0 White 1
6 PM Tue 39 39 W 10 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 38 38 W 10 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 37 37 W 10 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 37 37 W 10 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 37 37 N 8 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 37 37 N 8 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 36 36 N 8 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 36 36 N 8 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 35 35 N 8 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 36 36 N 8 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 35 35 N 8 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 35 35 N 8 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 35 35 N 8 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 36 36 N 8 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 38 38 N 8 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 42 43 N 8 2957 3540 0 White 1
10 AM Wed 43 44 SW 13 3179 3540 0 White 2
11 AM Wed 45 47 SW 13 3837 3837 297 White 5
12 Noon Wed 46 48 SW 13 4055 4055 515 White 6
1 PM Wed 46 48 SW 13 4055 4055 515 White 6
2 PM Wed 46 48 SW 13 4055 4055 515 White 6
3 PM Wed 46 47 SW 13 3837 3837 297 White 5
4 PM Wed 45 45 SW 14 3398 3540 0 White 3
5 PM Wed 43 43 SW 14 2957 3540 0 White 1
6 PM Wed 40 40 SW 14 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 39 39 SW 14 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 38 38 SW 14 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 38 38 SW 14 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 38 38 SW 9 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 37 37 SW 9 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 37 37 SW 9 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 37 37 SW 9 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 36 36 SW 9 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 37 37 SW 9 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 36 36 SW 13 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 36 36 SW 13 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 36 36 SW 13 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 36 36 SW 13 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 37 37 SW 13 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 40 40 SW 13 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 41 42 NW 12 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 41 42 NW 12 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 42 43 NW 12 2957 3540 0 White 1
1 PM Thu 42 43 NW 12 2957 3540 0 White 1
2 PM Thu 42 43 NW 12 2957 3540 0 White 1
3 PM Thu 42 42 NW 12 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 41 41 NW 12 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 39 39 NW 12 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 35 35 NW 12 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 33 33 NW 12 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 32 32 NW 12 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 32 32 NW 12 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 32 32 NW 13 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 32 32 NW 13 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 31 31 NW 13 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 31 31 NW 13 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 30 30 NW 13 1870 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 31 31 NW 13 1870 3540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst