Detailed Predictions for: Kagel
Launch Altitude (f): 3540
LZ Altitude (f): 1340
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

26 APR 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 56 56 W 2 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 57 57 W 2 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 60 60 W 2 2613 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 63 64 W 3 3284 3540 0 Blue 3
9 AM Thu 66 68 W 3 3929 3540 0 Blue 7
10 AM Thu 68 72 W 3 4473 4031 491 Blue 11
11 AM Thu 70 76 S 6 5575 4773 1233 Blue 15
12 Noon Thu 71 78 S 6 6663 5304 1764 Blue 17
1 PM Thu 72 79 S 6 6810 5552 2012 Blue 18
2 PM Thu 73 79 S 9 6810 5552 2012 Blue 18
3 PM Thu 73 78 S 9 6663 5304 1764 Blue 17
4 PM Thu 72 75 S 9 5325 4454 914 Blue 14
5 PM Thu 71 72 S 8 4473 4031 491 Blue 11
6 PM Thu 67 67 S 8 3832 3540 0 Blue 6
7 PM Thu 64 64 S 8 3284 3540 0 Blue 3
8 PM Thu 62 62 S 8 2969 3540 0 Blue 1
9 PM Thu 60 60 S 8 2613 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 59 59 S 8 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 58 58 W 2 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 57 57 W 2 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 56 56 W 2 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 55 55 S 3 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 54 54 S 3 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 54 54 S 3 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 53 53 S 3 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 54 54 S 3 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 57 57 S 3 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 60 60 S 3 2613 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 62 63 S 3 3127 3540 0 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 64 66 S 3 3737 3540 0 Blue 5
11 AM Fri 66 71 S 7 4249 3925 385 Blue 10
12 Noon Fri 67 73 S 7 4795 4137 597 Blue 12
1 PM Fri 68 74 S 7 5074 4244 704 Blue 13
2 PM Fri 69 75 S 7 5325 4454 914 Blue 14
3 PM Fri 69 74 S 7 5074 4244 704 Blue 13
4 PM Fri 68 71 S 7 4249 3925 385 Blue 10
5 PM Fri 67 68 NW 6 3929 3540 0 Blue 7
6 PM Fri 64 64 NW 6 3284 3540 0 Blue 3
7 PM Fri 61 61 NW 6 2758 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 59 59 NW 6 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 57 57 NW 6 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 56 56 NW 6 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 56 56 NW 6 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 55 55 NW 6 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 54 54 NW 6 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 53 53 NW 6 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 52 52 NW 6 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 52 52 NW 6 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 51 51 N 9 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 52 52 N 9 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 55 55 N 9 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 58 59 N 9 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 61 63 N 9 3127 3540 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 63 67 N 9 3832 3540 0 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 65 70 W 14 4142 3829 289 Blue 9
12 Noon Sat 66 72 W 14 4473 4031 491 Blue 11
1 PM Sat 67 73 W 14 4795 4137 597 Blue 12
2 PM Sat 68 74 W 14 5074 4244 704 Blue 13
3 PM Sat 68 73 W 14 4795 4137 597 Blue 12
4 PM Sat 67 70 W 14 4142 3829 289 Blue 9
5 PM Sat 66 67 W 13 3832 3540 0 Blue 6
6 PM Sat 63 63 W 13 3127 3540 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sat 60 60 W 13 2613 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 58 58 W 13 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 56 56 W 13 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 55 55 W 13 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 55 55 N 6 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 54 54 N 6 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 53 53 N 6 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 52 52 N 6 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 51 51 N 6 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 51 51 N 6 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 50 50 N 5 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 51 51 N 5 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 54 54 N 5 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 57 58 N 5 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 60 62 N 5 2969 3540 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 62 66 N 5 3737 3540 0 Blue 5
11 AM Sun 65 70 SW 13 4142 3829 289 Blue 9
12 Noon Sun 66 72 SW 13 4473 4031 491 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 67 73 SW 13 4795 4137 597 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 68 74 SW 13 5074 4244 704 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 68 73 SW 13 4795 4137 597 Blue 12
4 PM Sun 67 70 SW 13 4142 3829 289 Blue 9
5 PM Sun 66 67 SW 13 3832 3540 0 Blue 6
6 PM Sun 63 63 SW 13 3127 3540 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 60 60 SW 13 2613 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 58 58 SW 13 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 56 56 SW 13 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 55 55 SW 13 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 55 55 SE 5 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 54 54 SE 5 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 53 53 SE 5 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 52 52 SE 5 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 51 51 SE 5 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 51 51 SE 5 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 50 50 SE 5 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 51 51 SE 5 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 54 54 SE 5 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 57 58 SE 5 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 60 62 SE 5 2969 3540 0 Blue 1
10 AM Mon 62 65 SE 5 3533 3540 0 Blue 4
11 AM Mon 64 69 S 9 4036 3733 193 Blue 8
12 Noon Mon 65 71 S 9 4249 3925 385 Blue 10
1 PM Mon 66 72 S 9 4473 4031 491 Blue 11
2 PM Mon 67 73 S 9 4795 4137 597 Blue 12
3 PM Mon 67 71 S 9 4249 3925 385 Blue 10
4 PM Mon 66 69 S 9 4036 3733 193 Blue 8
5 PM Mon 65 66 S 8 3737 3540 0 Blue 5
6 PM Mon 62 62 S 8 2969 3540 0 Blue 1
7 PM Mon 59 59 S 8 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 57 57 S 8 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 56 56 S 8 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 55 55 S 8 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 54 54 SE 7 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 53 53 SE 7 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 52 52 SE 7 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 51 51 SE 7 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 51 51 SE 7 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 50 50 SE 7 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 50 50 SE 7 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 52 52 SE 7 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 54 54 SE 7 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 57 57 SE 7 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 59 61 SE 7 2758 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 61 64 SE 7 3284 3540 0 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 63 66 SW 13 3737 3540 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Tue 64 68 SW 13 3929 3540 0 Blue 7
1 PM Tue 65 69 SW 13 4036 3733 193 Blue 8
2 PM Tue 66 70 SW 13 4142 3829 289 Blue 9
3 PM Tue 66 69 SW 13 4036 3733 193 Blue 8
4 PM Tue 65 67 SW 13 3832 3540 0 Blue 6
5 PM Tue 64 65 SW 13 3533 3540 0 Blue 4
6 PM Tue 61 61 SW 13 2758 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 58 58 SW 13 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 56 56 SW 13 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 55 55 SW 13 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 54 54 SW 13 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 53 53 S 6 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 52 52 S 6 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 51 51 S 6 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 50 50 S 6 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 50 50 S 6 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 49 49 S 6 2569 3540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst