Detailed Predictions for: Kagel
Launch Altitude (f): 3540
LZ Altitude (f): 1340
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

25 APR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 61 61 S 3 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 61 61 S 3 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 62 62 S 3 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 64 65 S 3 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 67 69 S 3 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 68 72 S 3 3006 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 70 76 S 9 4444 3540 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Thu 71 78 S 9 5231 4011 471 Blue 5
1 PM Thu 73 80 S 9 5870 4824 1284 Blue 7
2 PM Thu 75 81 S 9 6185 5205 1665 Blue 8
3 PM Thu 75 80 S 9 5870 4824 1284 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 75 78 S 9 5231 4011 471 Blue 5
5 PM Thu 74 75 S 12 4029 3540 0 Blue 2
6 PM Thu 72 72 S 12 3006 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 69 69 S 12 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 66 66 S 12 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 65 65 S 12 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 65 65 S 12 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 64 64 S 5 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 63 63 S 5 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 62 62 S 5 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 61 61 S 5 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 61 61 S 5 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 60 60 S 5 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 60 60 S 6 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 60 60 S 6 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 61 61 S 6 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 63 64 S 6 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 66 68 S 6 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 67 71 S 6 2803 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 69 75 SW 13 4029 3540 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Fri 70 77 SW 13 4853 3594 54 Blue 4
1 PM Fri 72 79 SW 13 5552 4421 881 Blue 6
2 PM Fri 74 80 SW 13 5870 4824 1284 Blue 7
3 PM Fri 74 79 SW 13 5552 4421 881 Blue 6
4 PM Fri 74 77 SW 13 4853 3594 54 Blue 4
5 PM Fri 73 74 SW 13 3607 3540 0 Blue 1
6 PM Fri 71 71 SW 13 2803 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 68 68 SW 13 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 65 65 SW 13 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 64 64 SW 13 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 64 64 SW 13 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 63 63 S 9 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 62 62 S 9 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 61 61 S 9 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 60 60 S 9 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 60 60 S 9 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 59 59 S 9 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 59 59 S 9 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 59 59 S 9 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 60 60 S 9 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 62 63 S 9 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 65 67 S 9 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 66 69 S 9 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 68 73 S 14 3208 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 69 75 S 14 4029 3540 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sat 71 77 S 14 4853 3594 54 Blue 4
2 PM Sat 73 78 S 14 5231 4011 471 Blue 5
3 PM Sat 73 77 S 14 4853 3594 54 Blue 4
4 PM Sat 73 76 S 14 4444 3540 0 Blue 3
5 PM Sat 72 73 S 14 3208 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 70 70 S 14 2600 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 67 67 S 14 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 63 63 S 14 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 62 62 S 14 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 62 62 S 14 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 61 61 S 10 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 60 60 S 10 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 59 59 S 10 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 59 59 S 10 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 58 58 S 10 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 57 57 S 10 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 57 57 S 8 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 57 57 S 8 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 58 58 S 8 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 60 60 S 8 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 62 63 S 8 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 63 65 S 8 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 65 69 S 16 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 66 71 S 16 2803 3540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 67 72 S 16 3006 3540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 69 74 S 16 3607 3540 0 Blue 1
3 PM Sun 69 73 S 16 3208 3540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 69 71 S 16 2803 3540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 68 69 S 16 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 66 66 S 16 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 62 62 S 16 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 58 58 S 16 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 57 57 S 16 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 57 57 S 16 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 56 56 S 12 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 55 55 S 12 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 54 54 S 12 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 54 54 S 12 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 53 53 S 12 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 52 52 S 12 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 52 52 S 12 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 52 52 S 12 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 52 52 S 12 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 54 54 S 12 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 55 55 S 12 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 56 56 S 12 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 57 59 S 14 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 58 61 S 14 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 59 62 S 14 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 60 62 S 14 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 60 62 S 14 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 60 61 S 14 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 59 59 S 14 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 58 58 S 14 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 55 55 S 14 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 53 53 S 14 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 52 52 S 14 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 52 52 S 14 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 51 51 S 12 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 50 50 S 12 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 49 49 S 12 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 49 49 S 12 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 49 49 S 12 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 48 48 S 12 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 48 48 S 13 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 48 48 S 13 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 49 49 S 13 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 50 S 13 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 52 53 S 13 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 53 55 S 13 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 54 59 SW 18 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 55 61 SW 18 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 57 63 SW 18 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 58 63 SW 18 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 58 62 SW 18 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 58 61 SW 18 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 57 58 SW 18 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 56 56 SW 18 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 54 54 SW 18 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 52 52 SW 18 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 51 51 SW 18 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 51 51 SW 18 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 50 50 SW 10 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 50 50 SW 10 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 49 49 SW 10 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 49 49 SW 10 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 49 49 SW 10 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 48 48 SW 10 2589 3540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst