Detailed Predictions for: Kagel
Launch Altitude (f): 3540
LZ Altitude (f): 1340
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

24 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 65 65 SE 6 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 65 65 SE 6 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 65 65 SE 6 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 70 70 SE 6 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 72 74 SE 6 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 76 80 SE 6 3881 3540 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 78 84 S 6 4679 4004 464 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 81 88 S 6 6559 5212 1672 Blue 10
1 PM Sat 82 90 S 6 7001 6141 2601 Blue 12
2 PM Sat 84 91 S 12 7246 6531 2991 Blue 13
3 PM Sat 85 91 S 12 7246 6531 2991 Blue 13
4 PM Sat 85 89 S 12 6780 5681 2141 Blue 11
5 PM Sat 84 86 S 15 5726 4427 887 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 82 82 S 15 4137 3578 38 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 79 79 S 15 3583 3540 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sat 76 76 S 12 2810 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 74 74 S 12 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 73 73 S 12 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 72 72 S 2 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 72 72 S 2 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 71 71 S 2 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 69 69 S 2 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 68 68 S 2 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 68 68 S 2 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 67 67 S 3 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 67 67 S 3 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 67 67 S 3 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 72 72 S 2 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 74 76 S 2 2810 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 78 82 S 2 4137 3578 38 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 80 86 S 8 5726 4427 887 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 83 90 S 8 7001 6141 2601 Blue 12
1 PM Sun 84 91 S 8 7246 6531 2991 Blue 13
2 PM Sun 86 93 W 14 7814 6971 3431 Blue 15
3 PM Sun 87 93 W 14 7814 6971 3431 Blue 15
4 PM Sun 87 91 W 14 7246 6531 2991 Blue 13
5 PM Sun 86 88 W 14 6559 5212 1672 Blue 10
6 PM Sun 84 84 W 14 4679 4004 464 Blue 6
7 PM Sun 81 81 W 14 4009 3540 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sun 77 77 SW 5 3117 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 75 75 SW 5 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 75 75 SW 5 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 74 74 S 5 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 73 73 S 5 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 72 72 S 5 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 70 70 S 5 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 70 70 S 5 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 69 69 S 5 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 68 68 S 5 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 68 68 S 5 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 68 68 S 5 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 72 72 S 5 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 75 76 S 5 2810 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 78 81 S 5 4009 3540 0 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 80 84 S 9 4679 4004 464 Blue 6
12 Noon Mon 82 87 S 9 6192 4636 1096 Blue 9
1 PM Mon 84 89 S 9 6780 5681 2141 Blue 11
2 PM Mon 85 90 S 9 7001 6141 2601 Blue 12
3 PM Mon 86 90 S 9 7001 6141 2601 Blue 12
4 PM Mon 86 88 S 9 6559 5212 1672 Blue 10
5 PM Mon 85 86 S 9 5726 4427 887 Blue 8
6 PM Mon 83 83 S 9 4438 3876 336 Blue 5
7 PM Mon 80 80 S 9 3881 3540 0 Blue 2
8 PM Mon 77 77 S 9 3117 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 75 75 S 9 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 74 74 S 9 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 73 73 N 3 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 73 73 N 3 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 72 72 N 3 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 70 70 N 3 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 69 69 N 3 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 69 69 N 3 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 68 68 N 3 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 68 68 N 3 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 68 68 N 3 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 73 73 N 3 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 75 77 N 3 3117 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 78 82 N 3 4137 3578 38 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 81 87 SW 10 6192 4636 1096 Blue 9
12 Noon Tue 83 90 SW 10 7001 6141 2601 Blue 12
1 PM Tue 84 92 SW 10 7531 6752 3212 Blue 14
2 PM Tue 86 93 SW 10 7814 6971 3431 Blue 15
3 PM Tue 87 93 SW 10 7814 6971 3431 Blue 15
4 PM Tue 87 91 SW 10 7246 6531 2991 Blue 13
5 PM Tue 86 88 SW 10 6559 5212 1672 Blue 10
6 PM Tue 84 84 SW 10 4679 4004 464 Blue 6
7 PM Tue 81 81 SW 10 4009 3540 0 Blue 3
8 PM Tue 77 77 SW 10 3117 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 74 74 SW 10 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 74 74 SW 10 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 73 73 S 6 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 72 72 S 6 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 71 71 S 6 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 70 70 S 6 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 69 69 S 6 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 68 68 S 6 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 67 67 S 6 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 67 67 S 6 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 67 67 S 6 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 71 71 S 6 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 74 76 S 6 2810 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 77 81 S 6 4009 3540 0 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 79 85 S 15 5251 4131 591 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 81 88 S 15 6559 5212 1672 Blue 10
1 PM Wed 83 91 S 15 7246 6531 2991 Blue 13
2 PM Wed 84 91 S 15 7246 6531 2991 Blue 13
3 PM Wed 85 91 S 15 7246 6531 2991 Blue 13
4 PM Wed 85 89 S 15 6780 5681 2141 Blue 11
5 PM Wed 84 86 S 15 5726 4427 887 Blue 8
6 PM Wed 82 82 S 15 4137 3578 38 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 78 78 S 15 3402 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 74 74 S 15 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 72 72 S 15 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 72 72 S 15 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 70 70 S 7 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 69 69 S 7 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 68 68 S 7 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 67 67 S 7 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 66 66 S 7 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 65 65 S 7 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 64 64 S 7 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 64 64 S 7 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 64 64 S 7 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 69 69 S 7 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 72 74 S 7 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 75 79 S 7 3583 3540 0 Blue 1
11 AM Thu 78 84 SW 15 4679 4004 464 Blue 6
12 Noon Thu 81 88 SW 15 6559 5212 1672 Blue 10
1 PM Thu 82 90 SW 15 7001 6141 2601 Blue 12
2 PM Thu 84 91 SW 15 7246 6531 2991 Blue 13
3 PM Thu 85 91 SW 15 7246 6531 2991 Blue 13
4 PM Thu 85 89 SW 15 6780 5681 2141 Blue 11
5 PM Thu 84 86 SW 15 5726 4427 887 Blue 8
6 PM Thu 82 82 SW 15 4137 3578 38 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 80 80 SW 15 3881 3540 0 Blue 2
8 PM Thu 76 76 SW 15 2810 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 74 74 SW 15 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 74 74 SW 15 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 73 73 S 3 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 72 72 S 3 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 72 72 S 3 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 70 70 S 3 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 69 69 S 3 2562 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 69 69 S 3 2562 3540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst