Detailed Predictions for: Kagel
Launch Altitude (f): 3540
LZ Altitude (f): 1340
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

16 OCT 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 55 55 NE 29 1437 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 55 55 NE 29 1437 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 54 54 NE 29 1437 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 56 56 NE 29 1437 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 59 60 NE 29 1437 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 64 66 NE 29 5774 3540 0 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 67 70 NE 23 8387 6636 3096 Blue 8
12 Noon Tue 71 75 NE 23 9647 8843 5303 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 73 78 NE 23 10321 9589 6049 Blue 16
2 PM Tue 75 79 NE 17 10492 9836 6296 Blue 17
3 PM Tue 75 78 NE 17 10321 9589 6049 Blue 16
4 PM Tue 74 75 NE 17 9647 8843 5303 Blue 13
5 PM Tue 72 72 NE 15 8895 8085 4545 Blue 10
6 PM Tue 69 69 NE 15 8131 5670 2130 Blue 7
7 PM Tue 65 65 NE 15 4775 3540 0 Blue 3
8 PM Tue 63 63 NE 16 3252 3540 0 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 61 61 NE 16 1437 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 60 60 NE 16 1437 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 60 60 NE 17 1437 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 59 59 NE 17 1437 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 59 59 NE 17 1437 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 58 58 NE 17 1437 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 59 59 NE 17 1437 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 58 58 NE 17 1437 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 58 58 NE 18 1437 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 58 58 NE 18 1437 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 57 57 NE 18 1437 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 59 59 NE 20 1437 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 62 63 NE 20 3252 3540 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 66 68 NE 20 7645 4727 1187 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 69 72 NE 15 8895 8085 4545 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 72 76 NE 15 9895 9093 5553 Blue 14
1 PM Wed 75 79 NE 15 10492 9836 6296 Blue 17
2 PM Wed 76 80 NE 10 10663 10081 6541 Blue 18
3 PM Wed 76 79 NE 10 10492 9836 6296 Blue 17
4 PM Wed 75 76 NE 10 9895 9093 5553 Blue 14
5 PM Wed 73 73 NE 8 9147 8339 4799 Blue 11
6 PM Wed 70 70 NE 8 8387 6636 3096 Blue 8
7 PM Wed 67 67 NE 8 6759 4004 464 Blue 5
8 PM Wed 64 64 NE 8 4038 3540 0 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 63 63 NE 8 3252 3540 0 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 62 62 NE 8 2358 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 62 62 NE 9 2358 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 61 61 NE 9 1437 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 61 61 NE 9 1437 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 60 60 NE 9 1437 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 61 61 NE 9 1437 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 60 60 NE 9 1437 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 60 60 NE 12 1437 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 60 60 NE 12 1437 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 59 59 NE 12 1437 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 61 61 NE 12 1437 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 64 65 NE 12 4775 3540 0 Blue 3
10 AM Thu 68 70 NE 12 8387 6636 3096 Blue 8
11 AM Thu 71 74 NE 12 9397 8591 5051 Blue 12
12 Noon Thu 74 78 NE 12 10321 9589 6049 Blue 16
1 PM Thu 77 82 NE 12 11558 10447 6907 Blue 20
2 PM Thu 78 82 NE 12 11558 10447 6907 Blue 20
3 PM Thu 78 81 NE 12 10887 10277 6737 Blue 19
4 PM Thu 77 78 NE 12 10321 9589 6049 Blue 16
5 PM Thu 75 75 NE 9 9647 8843 5303 Blue 13
6 PM Thu 72 72 NE 9 8895 8085 4545 Blue 10
7 PM Thu 68 68 NE 9 7645 4727 1187 Blue 6
8 PM Thu 66 66 NE 9 5774 3540 0 Blue 4
9 PM Thu 64 64 NE 9 4038 3540 0 Blue 2
10 PM Thu 63 63 NE 9 3252 3540 0 Blue 1
11 PM Thu 63 63 NE 12 3252 3540 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Fri 62 62 NE 12 2358 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 62 62 NE 12 2358 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 61 61 NE 12 1437 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 62 62 NE 12 2358 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 61 61 NE 12 1437 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 61 61 N 12 1437 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 61 61 N 12 1437 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 60 60 N 12 1437 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 62 62 N 12 2358 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 65 66 N 12 5774 3540 0 Blue 4
10 AM Fri 70 72 N 12 8895 8085 4545 Blue 10
11 AM Fri 73 76 NE 15 9895 9093 5553 Blue 14
12 Noon Fri 77 81 NE 15 10887 10277 6737 Blue 19
1 PM Fri 79 84 NE 15 12306 10787 7247 Blue 22
2 PM Fri 81 85 NE 15 12522 11364 7824 Blue 23
3 PM Fri 81 84 NE 15 12306 10787 7247 Blue 22
4 PM Fri 80 81 NE 15 10887 10277 6737 Blue 19
5 PM Fri 78 78 NE 14 10321 9589 6049 Blue 16
6 PM Fri 75 75 NE 14 9647 8843 5303 Blue 13
7 PM Fri 71 71 NE 14 8641 7509 3969 Blue 9
8 PM Fri 68 68 NE 14 7645 4727 1187 Blue 6
9 PM Fri 66 66 NE 14 5774 3540 0 Blue 4
10 PM Fri 65 65 NE 14 4775 3540 0 Blue 3
11 PM Fri 65 65 NE 12 4775 3540 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sat 64 64 NE 12 4038 3540 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sat 64 64 NE 12 4038 3540 0 Blue 2
2 AM Sat 64 64 NE 12 4038 3540 0 Blue 2
3 AM Sat 64 64 NE 12 4038 3540 0 Blue 2
4 AM Sat 63 63 NE 12 3252 3540 0 Blue 1
5 AM Sat 63 63 NE 13 3252 3540 0 Blue 1
6 AM Sat 63 63 NE 13 3252 3540 0 Blue 1
7 AM Sat 62 62 NE 13 2358 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 63 63 NE 13 3252 3540 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sat 66 67 NE 13 6759 4004 464 Blue 5
10 AM Sat 69 71 NE 13 8641 7509 3969 Blue 9
11 AM Sat 72 75 NE 15 9647 8843 5303 Blue 13
12 Noon Sat 75 78 NE 15 10321 9589 6049 Blue 16
1 PM Sat 77 81 NE 15 10887 10277 6737 Blue 19
2 PM Sat 78 81 NE 15 10887 10277 6737 Blue 19
3 PM Sat 78 80 NE 15 10663 10081 6541 Blue 18
4 PM Sat 77 78 NE 15 10321 9589 6049 Blue 16
5 PM Sat 75 75 NE 12 9647 8843 5303 Blue 13
6 PM Sat 73 73 NE 12 9147 8339 4799 Blue 11
7 PM Sat 70 70 NE 12 8387 6636 3096 Blue 8
8 PM Sat 68 68 NE 12 7645 4727 1187 Blue 6
9 PM Sat 66 66 NE 12 5774 3540 0 Blue 4
10 PM Sat 66 66 NE 12 5774 3540 0 Blue 4
11 PM Sat 66 66 N 9 5774 3540 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sun 65 65 N 9 4775 3540 0 Blue 3
1 AM Sun 65 65 N 9 4775 3540 0 Blue 3
2 AM Sun 64 64 N 9 4038 3540 0 Blue 2
3 AM Sun 64 64 N 9 4038 3540 0 Blue 2
4 AM Sun 64 64 N 9 4038 3540 0 Blue 2
5 AM Sun 64 64 N 10 4038 3540 0 Blue 2
6 AM Sun 64 64 N 10 4038 3540 0 Blue 2
7 AM Sun 63 63 N 10 3252 3540 0 Blue 1
8 AM Sun 64 64 N 10 4038 3540 0 Blue 2
9 AM Sun 66 66 N 10 5774 3540 0 Blue 4
10 AM Sun 69 70 N 10 8387 6636 3096 Blue 8
11 AM Sun 71 73 NE 9 9147 8339 4799 Blue 11
12 Noon Sun 73 76 NE 9 9895 9093 5553 Blue 14
1 PM Sun 75 78 NE 9 10321 9589 6049 Blue 16
2 PM Sun 76 79 NE 9 10492 9836 6296 Blue 17
3 PM Sun 76 78 NE 9 10321 9589 6049 Blue 16
4 PM Sun 75 76 NE 9 9895 9093 5553 Blue 14
5 PM Sun 73 73 NE 6 9147 8339 4799 Blue 11
6 PM Sun 71 71 NE 6 8641 7509 3969 Blue 9
7 PM Sun 68 68 NE 6 7645 4727 1187 Blue 6
8 PM Sun 66 66 NE 6 5774 3540 0 Blue 4
9 PM Sun 64 64 NE 6 4038 3540 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 64 64 NE 6 4038 3540 0 Blue 2
11 PM Sun 64 64 N 5 4038 3540 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Mon 63 63 N 5 3252 3540 0 Blue 1
1 AM Mon 63 63 N 5 3252 3540 0 Blue 1
2 AM Mon 62 62 N 5 2358 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 62 62 N 5 2358 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 62 62 N 5 2358 3540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst