Detailed Predictions for: Kagel
Launch Altitude (f): 3540
LZ Altitude (f): 1340
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

19 JUN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 58 58 N 8 3054 3540 0 Blue 6
6 AM Tue 57 57 N 8 2949 3540 0 Blue 5
7 AM Tue 60 60 N 8 3264 3540 0 Blue 8
8 AM Tue 65 66 NE 7 3621 3540 0 Blue 14
9 AM Tue 68 71 NE 7 4222 3783 243 Blue 19
10 AM Tue 70 75 NE 7 4467 4278 738 Blue 23
11 AM Tue 72 79 NE 7 5083 4635 1095 Blue 27
12 Noon Tue 76 84 NE 7 6178 5463 1923 Blue 32
1 PM Tue 77 85 NE 7 6409 5680 2140 Blue 33
2 PM Tue 79 87 S 9 6868 6152 2612 Blue 35
3 PM Tue 80 86 S 9 6639 5921 2381 Blue 34
4 PM Tue 80 84 S 9 6178 5463 1923 Blue 32
5 PM Tue 80 83 S 9 5946 5266 1726 Blue 31
6 PM Tue 79 80 S 9 5282 4747 1207 Blue 28
7 PM Tue 78 78 S 9 4881 4457 917 Blue 26
8 PM Tue 76 76 N 2 4646 4337 797 Blue 24
9 PM Tue 74 74 N 2 4399 4219 679 Blue 22
10 PM Tue 74 74 N 2 4399 4219 679 Blue 22
11 PM Tue 73 73 N 3 4340 4099 559 Blue 21
12 Midnight Wed 73 73 N 3 4340 4099 559 Blue 21
1 AM Wed 72 72 N 3 4281 3941 401 Blue 20
2 AM Wed 71 71 N 7 4222 3783 243 Blue 19
3 AM Wed 71 71 N 7 4222 3783 243 Blue 19
4 AM Wed 71 71 N 7 4222 3783 243 Blue 19
5 AM Wed 71 71 NE 7 4222 3783 243 Blue 19
6 AM Wed 70 70 NE 7 4107 3671 131 Blue 18
7 AM Wed 73 73 NE 7 4340 4099 559 Blue 21
8 AM Wed 78 79 NE 6 5083 4635 1095 Blue 27
9 AM Wed 81 84 NE 6 6178 5463 1923 Blue 32
10 AM Wed 83 88 NE 6 7088 6381 2841 Blue 36
11 AM Wed 85 92 NE 1 7932 7268 3728 Blue 40
12 Noon Wed 89 97 NE 1 8974 8312 4772 Blue 45
1 PM Wed 90 98 NE 1 9180 8519 4979 Blue 46
2 PM Wed 92 100 S 10 9592 8932 5392 Blue 48
3 PM Wed 93 99 S 10 9387 8726 5186 Blue 47
4 PM Wed 93 97 S 10 8974 8312 4772 Blue 45
5 PM Wed 92 95 S 10 8558 7896 4356 Blue 43
6 PM Wed 91 92 S 10 7932 7268 3728 Blue 40
7 PM Wed 88 88 S 10 7088 6381 2841 Blue 36
8 PM Wed 83 83 SW 12 5946 5266 1726 Blue 31
9 PM Wed 80 80 SW 12 5282 4747 1207 Blue 28
10 PM Wed 78 78 SW 12 4881 4457 917 Blue 26
11 PM Wed 76 76 NE 3 4646 4337 797 Blue 24
12 Midnight Thu 76 76 NE 3 4646 4337 797 Blue 24
1 AM Thu 75 75 NE 3 4467 4278 738 Blue 23
2 AM Thu 73 73 NE 5 4340 4099 559 Blue 21
3 AM Thu 73 73 NE 5 4340 4099 559 Blue 21
4 AM Thu 72 72 NE 5 4281 3941 401 Blue 20
5 AM Thu 72 72 N 6 4281 3941 401 Blue 20
6 AM Thu 70 70 N 6 4107 3671 131 Blue 18
7 AM Thu 71 71 N 6 4222 3783 243 Blue 19
8 AM Thu 74 75 NE 6 4467 4278 738 Blue 23
9 AM Thu 75 78 NE 6 4881 4457 917 Blue 26
10 AM Thu 77 82 NE 6 5704 5068 1528 Blue 30
11 AM Thu 78 85 SW 0 6409 5680 2140 Blue 33
12 Noon Thu 80 88 SW 0 7088 6381 2841 Blue 36
1 PM Thu 80 89 SW 0 7300 6610 3070 Blue 37
2 PM Thu 82 90 S 9 7511 6838 3298 Blue 38
3 PM Thu 82 89 S 9 7300 6610 3070 Blue 37
4 PM Thu 82 87 S 9 6868 6152 2612 Blue 35
5 PM Thu 81 84 S 9 6178 5463 1923 Blue 32
6 PM Thu 81 82 S 9 5704 5068 1528 Blue 30
7 PM Thu 79 79 S 9 5083 4635 1095 Blue 27
8 PM Thu 76 76 S 9 4646 4337 797 Blue 24
9 PM Thu 73 73 S 9 4340 4099 559 Blue 21
10 PM Thu 72 72 S 9 4281 3941 401 Blue 20
11 PM Thu 71 71 W 7 4222 3783 243 Blue 19
12 Midnight Fri 71 71 W 7 4222 3783 243 Blue 19
1 AM Fri 70 70 W 7 4107 3671 131 Blue 18
2 AM Fri 69 69 W 7 3948 3619 79 Blue 17
3 AM Fri 69 69 W 7 3948 3619 79 Blue 17
4 AM Fri 69 69 W 7 3948 3619 79 Blue 17
5 AM Fri 68 68 NW 9 3789 3567 27 Blue 16
6 AM Fri 67 67 NW 9 3673 3540 0 Blue 15
7 AM Fri 69 69 NW 9 3948 3619 79 Blue 17
8 AM Fri 72 73 NW 9 4340 4099 559 Blue 21
9 AM Fri 74 77 NW 9 4754 4396 856 Blue 25
10 AM Fri 76 81 NW 9 5481 4865 1325 Blue 29
11 AM Fri 77 84 SW 13 6178 5463 1923 Blue 32
12 Noon Fri 79 87 SW 13 6868 6152 2612 Blue 35
1 PM Fri 80 89 SW 13 7300 6610 3070 Blue 37
2 PM Fri 81 89 SW 13 7300 6610 3070 Blue 37
3 PM Fri 82 89 SW 13 7300 6610 3070 Blue 37
4 PM Fri 82 87 SW 13 6868 6152 2612 Blue 35
5 PM Fri 81 84 SW 12 6178 5463 1923 Blue 32
6 PM Fri 80 81 SW 12 5481 4865 1325 Blue 29
7 PM Fri 78 78 SW 12 4881 4457 917 Blue 26
8 PM Fri 75 75 SW 12 4467 4278 738 Blue 23
9 PM Fri 73 73 SW 12 4340 4099 559 Blue 21
10 PM Fri 72 72 SW 12 4281 3941 401 Blue 20
11 PM Fri 70 70 SE 3 4107 3671 131 Blue 18
12 Midnight Sat 70 70 SE 3 4107 3671 131 Blue 18
1 AM Sat 69 69 SE 3 3948 3619 79 Blue 17
2 AM Sat 68 68 SE 3 3789 3567 27 Blue 16
3 AM Sat 68 68 SE 3 3789 3567 27 Blue 16
4 AM Sat 68 68 SE 3 3789 3567 27 Blue 16
5 AM Sat 67 67 SE 3 3673 3540 0 Blue 15
6 AM Sat 66 66 SE 3 3621 3540 0 Blue 14
7 AM Sat 68 68 SE 3 3789 3567 27 Blue 16
8 AM Sat 70 71 SE 3 4222 3783 243 Blue 19
9 AM Sat 72 75 SE 3 4467 4278 738 Blue 23
10 AM Sat 73 78 SE 3 4881 4457 917 Blue 26
11 AM Sat 75 82 SW 14 5704 5068 1528 Blue 30
12 Noon Sat 77 85 SW 14 6409 5680 2140 Blue 33
1 PM Sat 77 85 SW 14 6409 5680 2140 Blue 33
2 PM Sat 79 87 SW 14 6868 6152 2612 Blue 35
3 PM Sat 79 85 SW 14 6409 5680 2140 Blue 33
4 PM Sat 79 83 SW 14 5946 5266 1726 Blue 31
5 PM Sat 79 82 SW 14 5704 5068 1528 Blue 30
6 PM Sat 78 79 SW 14 5083 4635 1095 Blue 27
7 PM Sat 76 76 SW 14 4646 4337 797 Blue 24
8 PM Sat 73 73 SW 14 4340 4099 559 Blue 21
9 PM Sat 71 71 SW 14 4222 3783 243 Blue 19
10 PM Sat 70 70 SW 14 4107 3671 131 Blue 18
11 PM Sat 69 69 SE 6 3948 3619 79 Blue 17
12 Midnight Sun 69 69 SE 6 3948 3619 79 Blue 17
1 AM Sun 68 68 SE 6 3789 3567 27 Blue 16
2 AM Sun 67 67 SE 6 3673 3540 0 Blue 15
3 AM Sun 67 67 SE 6 3673 3540 0 Blue 15
4 AM Sun 66 66 SE 6 3621 3540 0 Blue 14
5 AM Sun 66 66 SE 5 3621 3540 0 Blue 14
6 AM Sun 65 65 SE 5 3568 3540 0 Blue 13
7 AM Sun 66 66 SE 5 3621 3540 0 Blue 14
8 AM Sun 68 69 SE 5 3948 3619 79 Blue 17
9 AM Sun 70 73 SE 5 4340 4099 559 Blue 21
10 AM Sun 71 76 SE 5 4646 4337 797 Blue 24
11 AM Sun 72 79 S 14 5083 4635 1095 Blue 27
12 Noon Sun 73 81 S 14 5481 4865 1325 Blue 29
1 PM Sun 74 82 S 14 5704 5068 1528 Blue 30
2 PM Sun 75 83 S 14 5946 5266 1726 Blue 31
3 PM Sun 75 81 S 14 5481 4865 1325 Blue 29
4 PM Sun 75 79 S 14 5083 4635 1095 Blue 27
5 PM Sun 74 77 S 13 4754 4396 856 Blue 25
6 PM Sun 73 74 S 13 4399 4219 679 Blue 22
7 PM Sun 71 71 S 13 4222 3783 243 Blue 19
8 PM Sun 68 68 S 13 3789 3567 27 Blue 16
9 PM Sun 66 66 S 13 3621 3540 0 Blue 14
10 PM Sun 65 65 S 13 3568 3540 0 Blue 13
11 PM Sun 63 63 S 5 3464 3540 0 Blue 11
12 Midnight Mon 63 63 S 5 3464 3540 0 Blue 11
1 AM Mon 62 62 S 5 3412 3540 0 Blue 10
2 AM Mon 61 61 S 5 3360 3540 0 Blue 9
3 AM Mon 61 61 S 5 3360 3540 0 Blue 9
4 AM Mon 61 61 S 5 3360 3540 0 Blue 9

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst