Detailed Predictions for: Kagel
Launch Altitude (f): 3540
LZ Altitude (f): 1340
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

25 NOV 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 49 49 NE 5 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 49 49 NE 5 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 48 48 NE 5 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 49 49 SE 5 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 51 51 SE 5 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 53 54 SE 5 2899 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 55 57 SW 6 3302 3540 0 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 57 59 SW 6 3338 3540 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Wed 58 60 SW 6 3356 3540 0 Blue 5
1 PM Wed 58 60 SW 6 3356 3540 0 Blue 5
2 PM Wed 59 60 SW 6 3356 3540 0 Blue 5
3 PM Wed 58 58 SW 6 3320 3540 0 Blue 3
4 PM Wed 57 57 SW 8 3302 3540 0 Blue 2
5 PM Wed 52 52 SW 8 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 48 48 SW 8 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 48 48 W 8 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 47 47 W 8 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 47 47 W 8 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 47 47 NW 10 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 47 47 NW 10 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 45 45 NW 10 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 44 44 N 14 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 44 44 N 14 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 44 44 N 14 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 44 44 N 20 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 44 44 N 20 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 43 43 N 20 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 44 44 N 22 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 48 48 N 22 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 50 51 N 22 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 53 55 NE 24 3212 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 55 57 NE 24 3302 3540 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Thu 56 58 NE 24 3320 3540 0 Blue 3
1 PM Thu 57 59 NE 25 3338 3540 0 Blue 4
2 PM Thu 58 59 NE 25 3338 3540 0 Blue 4
3 PM Thu 57 57 NE 25 3302 3540 0 Blue 2
4 PM Thu 56 56 NE 35 3283 3540 0 Blue 1
5 PM Thu 51 51 NE 35 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 47 47 NE 35 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 47 47 NE 35 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 46 46 NE 35 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 46 46 NE 35 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 46 46 NE 49 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 46 46 NE 49 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 44 44 NE 49 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 43 43 NE 46 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 43 43 NE 46 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 43 43 NE 46 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 43 43 NE 47 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 43 43 NE 47 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 42 42 NE 47 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 43 43 NE 47 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 47 47 NE 47 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 50 51 NE 47 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 53 55 NE 28 3212 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 55 57 NE 28 3302 3540 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Fri 57 60 NE 28 3356 3540 0 Blue 5
1 PM Fri 58 60 NE 28 3356 3540 0 Blue 5
2 PM Fri 59 60 NE 28 3356 3540 0 Blue 5
3 PM Fri 58 58 NE 28 3320 3540 0 Blue 3
4 PM Fri 57 57 NE 25 3302 3540 0 Blue 2
5 PM Fri 52 52 NE 25 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 49 49 NE 25 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 49 49 NE 25 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 48 48 NE 25 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 48 48 NE 25 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 48 48 NE 29 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 47 47 NE 29 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 46 46 NE 29 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 45 45 NE 29 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 45 45 NE 29 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 45 45 NE 29 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 45 45 NE 25 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 45 45 NE 25 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 44 44 NE 25 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 45 45 NE 24 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 50 50 NE 24 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 54 55 NE 24 3212 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 57 59 NE 20 3338 3540 0 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 60 62 NE 20 3584 3540 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Sat 62 65 NE 20 4244 3579 39 Blue 10
1 PM Sat 63 65 NE 20 4244 3579 39 Blue 10
2 PM Sat 64 65 NE 20 4244 3579 39 Blue 10
3 PM Sat 63 63 NE 20 3732 3540 0 Blue 8
4 PM Sat 61 61 N 12 3435 3540 0 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 56 56 N 12 3283 3540 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sat 52 52 N 12 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 52 52 N 10 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 52 52 N 10 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 52 52 N 10 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 51 51 N 12 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 51 51 N 12 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 49 49 N 12 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 48 48 N 15 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 48 48 N 15 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 48 48 N 15 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 48 48 NE 16 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 48 48 NE 16 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 47 47 NE 16 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 48 48 NE 15 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 52 52 NE 15 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 55 56 NE 15 3283 3540 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 58 59 NE 13 3338 3540 0 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 60 62 NE 13 3584 3540 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 62 64 NE 13 3880 3540 0 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 63 65 N 13 4244 3579 39 Blue 10
2 PM Sun 64 65 N 13 4244 3579 39 Blue 10
3 PM Sun 63 63 N 13 3732 3540 0 Blue 8
4 PM Sun 62 62 N 12 3584 3540 0 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 58 58 N 12 3320 3540 0 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 55 55 N 12 3212 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 55 55 N 10 3212 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 55 55 N 10 3212 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 55 55 N 10 3212 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 54 54 N 12 2899 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 54 54 N 12 2899 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 52 52 N 12 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 52 52 N 13 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 52 52 N 13 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 52 52 N 13 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 52 52 N 15 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 52 52 N 15 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 51 51 N 15 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 52 52 N 13 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 55 55 N 13 3212 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 58 58 N 13 3320 3540 0 Blue 3
10 AM Mon 60 61 N 12 3435 3540 0 Blue 6
11 AM Mon 62 63 N 12 3732 3540 0 Blue 8
12 Noon Mon 63 64 N 12 3880 3540 0 Blue 9
1 PM Mon 64 65 N 13 4244 3579 39 Blue 10
2 PM Mon 65 66 N 13 5076 3727 187 Blue 11
3 PM Mon 64 64 N 13 3880 3540 0 Blue 9
4 PM Mon 63 63 NW 12 3732 3540 0 Blue 8
5 PM Mon 58 58 NW 12 3320 3540 0 Blue 3
6 PM Mon 54 54 NW 12 2899 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 54 54 N 8 2899 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 53 53 N 8 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 53 53 N 8 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 53 53 N 9 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 53 53 N 9 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 51 51 N 9 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 50 50 N 12 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 50 50 N 12 2615 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 50 50 N 12 2615 3540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst