Detailed Predictions for: Kagel
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.3333769599, -118.384563808, 3540
LZ Altitude (f): 1340
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

27 FEB 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 63 63 N 2 3 5824 4850 1310 Blue 3
1 AM Sat 61 61 N 3 4 5172 4456 916 Blue 1
2 AM Sat 60 60 N 4 4 4858 4258 718 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 59 59 WSW 4 6 4662 4058 518 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 57 57 SE 5 7 4262 3659 119 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 56 56 N 6 8 4062 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 55 55 SE 7 10 3861 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 55 55 WSW 9 13 3861 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 54 55 N 11 15 3861 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 57 59 WSW 12 15 4662 4058 518 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 59 62 ESE 13 16 5500 4655 1115 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 62 66 N 14 17 6781 5801 2261 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 64 69 N 15 17 8986 6748 3208 Blue 9
1 PM Sat 65 69 N 15 18 8986 6748 3208 Blue 9
2 PM Sat 66 69 N 16 18 8986 6748 3208 Blue 9
3 PM Sat 65 67 N 18 20 7095 6119 2579 Blue 7
4 PM Sat 63 64 N 20 23 6146 5155 1615 Blue 4
5 PM Sat 62 62 N 22 25 5500 4655 1115 Blue 2
6 PM Sat 60 60 N 19 23 4858 4258 718 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 58 58 N 17 20 4462 3859 319 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 56 56 N 14 18 4062 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 55 55 N 13 17 3861 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 54 54 N 12 15 3659 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 54 54 N 11 14 3659 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 53 53 N 10 13 3458 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 53 53 N 9 12 3458 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 53 53 N 8 11 3458 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 52 52 N 8 11 3255 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 52 52 N 8 12 3255 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 51 51 N 8 12 3053 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 51 51 N 8 12 3053 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 51 51 N 9 12 3053 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 50 51 N 9 12 3053 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 54 56 N 9 11 4062 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 57 60 NNE 9 11 4858 4258 718 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 60 64 NNE 8 10 6146 5155 1615 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 62 67 N 8 9 7095 6119 2579 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 64 68 N 7 8 8036 6435 2895 Blue 8
2 PM Sun 66 69 N 6 7 8986 6748 3208 Blue 9
3 PM Sun 66 68 ESE 5 6 8036 6435 2895 Blue 8
4 PM Sun 66 67 WSW 5 6 7095 6119 2579 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 66 66 N 4 5 6781 5801 2261 Blue 6
6 PM Sun 64 64 WSW 5 6 6146 5155 1615 Blue 4
7 PM Sun 62 62 ESE 5 6 5500 4655 1115 Blue 2
8 PM Sun 60 60 N 5 7 4858 4258 718 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 59 59 N 5 6 4662 4058 518 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 58 58 N 5 6 4462 3859 319 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 58 58 N 5 6 4462 3859 319 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 57 57 SE 5 6 4262 3659 119 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 56 56 WSW 5 6 4062 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 55 55 N 5 6 3861 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 54 54 WSW 5 7 3659 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 53 53 ESE 5 8 3458 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 52 52 N 6 9 3255 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 52 52 N 6 9 3255 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 52 52 N 6 10 3255 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 51 52 N 6 10 3255 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 55 57 ESE 6 8 4262 3659 119 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 59 62 SW 5 7 5500 4655 1115 Blue 2
11 AM Mon 62 66 NNW 4 5 6781 5801 2261 Blue 6
12 Noon Mon 65 70 WNW 4 5 9846 7059 3519 Blue 10
1 PM Mon 68 72 WSW 4 4 11250 8828 5288 Blue 12
2 PM Mon 70 73 S 3 4 11886 9678 6138 Blue 13
3 PM Mon 68 70 S 5 6 9846 7059 3519 Blue 10
4 PM Mon 66 67 S 6 8 7095 6119 2579 Blue 7
5 PM Mon 64 64 S 8 10 6146 5155 1615 Blue 4
6 PM Mon 64 64 SSW 6 7 6146 5155 1615 Blue 4
7 PM Mon 63 63 SSW 4 4 5824 4850 1310 Blue 3
8 PM Mon 63 63 SSW 2 2 5824 4850 1310 Blue 3
9 PM Mon 61 61 S 1 2 5172 4456 916 Blue 1
10 PM Mon 60 60 SSE 1 1 4858 4258 718 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 58 58 SE 1 1 4462 3859 319 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst