Detailed Predictions for: Kagel
Launch Altitude (f): 3540
LZ Altitude (f): 1340
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

14 DEC 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 51 51 E 7 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 50 50 E 7 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 50 50 E 7 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 49 49 E 8 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 51 51 E 8 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 55 55 E 8 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 57 57 SE 3 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 58 58 SE 3 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 59 59 SE 3 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 60 60 S 10 1354 3540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 60 60 S 10 1354 3540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 60 60 S 10 1354 3540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 59 59 SW 5 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 55 55 SW 5 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 54 54 SW 5 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 52 52 E 5 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 52 52 E 5 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 51 51 E 5 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 51 51 E 2 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 51 51 E 2 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 50 50 E 2 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 51 51 SE 5 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 50 50 SE 5 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 49 49 SE 5 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 50 50 SE 5 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 50 50 SE 5 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 49 49 SE 5 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 49 49 SE 6 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 52 52 SE 6 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 56 56 SE 6 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 59 60 E 2 1354 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 61 63 E 2 2319 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 61 63 E 2 2319 3540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 63 65 NW 3 3237 3540 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sat 63 64 NW 3 2636 3540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 63 63 NW 3 2319 3540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 61 61 NE 3 1678 3540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 57 57 NE 3 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 55 55 NE 3 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 54 54 NE 3 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 53 53 NE 3 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 52 52 NE 3 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 52 52 NE 6 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 53 53 NE 6 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 52 52 NE 6 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 52 52 NE 6 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 51 51 NE 6 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 50 50 NE 6 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 51 51 E 5 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 51 51 E 5 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 50 50 E 5 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 50 50 E 5 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 52 52 E 5 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 56 56 E 5 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 59 60 SE 7 1354 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 60 61 SE 7 1678 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 61 62 SE 7 2000 3540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 62 63 SE 7 2319 3540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 62 63 SE 7 2319 3540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 62 62 SE 7 2000 3540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 60 60 S 7 1354 3540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 54 54 S 7 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 53 53 S 7 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 51 51 S 7 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 50 50 S 7 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 48 48 S 7 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 48 48 S 6 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 49 49 S 6 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 48 48 S 6 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 48 48 S 6 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 47 47 S 6 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 46 46 S 6 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 48 48 SE 8 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 47 47 SE 8 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 46 46 SE 8 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 46 46 SE 8 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 48 48 SE 8 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 51 51 SE 8 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 53 53 S 7 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 54 54 S 7 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 54 55 S 7 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 55 55 S 7 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 55 55 S 7 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 55 55 S 7 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 54 54 NW 6 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 50 50 NW 6 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 49 49 NW 6 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 47 47 NW 6 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 47 47 NW 6 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 46 46 NW 6 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 46 46 N 9 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 46 46 N 9 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 45 45 N 9 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 46 46 N 9 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 45 45 N 9 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 44 44 N 9 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 45 45 N 10 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 45 45 N 10 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 44 44 N 10 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 44 44 N 10 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 47 47 N 10 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 52 52 N 10 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 55 56 N 10 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 57 59 N 10 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 57 59 N 10 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 59 61 N 10 1678 3540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 59 60 N 10 1354 3540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 59 59 N 10 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 58 58 N 9 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 54 54 N 9 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 53 53 N 9 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 51 51 N 9 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 51 51 N 9 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 50 50 N 9 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 50 50 N 10 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 50 50 N 10 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 49 49 N 10 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 50 50 N 10 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 49 49 N 10 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 48 48 N 10 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 49 49 NE 12 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 49 49 NE 12 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 48 48 NE 12 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 48 48 NE 12 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 52 52 NE 12 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 60 61 NE 12 1678 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 64 65 NE 10 3237 3540 0 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 67 69 NE 10 4722 4044 504 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 68 70 NE 10 4943 4266 726 Blue 6
1 PM Wed 70 72 NE 10 6275 4707 1167 Blue 8
2 PM Wed 70 71 NE 10 5500 4487 947 Blue 7
3 PM Wed 70 70 NE 10 4943 4266 726 Blue 6
4 PM Wed 67 67 N 8 4278 3540 0 Blue 3
5 PM Wed 61 61 N 8 1678 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 59 59 N 8 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 57 57 N 8 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 56 56 N 8 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 54 54 N 8 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 54 54 NE 10 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 55 55 NE 10 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 53 53 NE 10 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 54 54 NE 10 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 53 53 NE 10 1050 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 51 51 NE 10 1050 3540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst