Detailed Predictions for: Kagel
Launch Altitude (f): 3540
LZ Altitude (f): 1340
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

23 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 50 50 N 10 2457 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 49 49 N 10 2457 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 49 49 N 10 2457 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 51 51 NE 12 2457 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 55 56 NE 12 2738 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 58 61 NE 12 4782 3540 0 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 61 65 W 9 5524 4892 1352 Blue 9
12 Noon Sat 63 69 W 9 6679 5875 2335 White 13
1 PM Sat 65 71 W 9 7110 6633 3093 White 15
2 PM Sat 67 72 SW 8 7325 7004 3464 White 16
3 PM Sat 68 72 SW 8 7325 7004 3464 White 16
4 PM Sat 67 69 SW 8 6679 5875 2335 White 13
5 PM Sat 66 67 W 10 6247 5210 1670 White 11
6 PM Sat 63 63 W 10 5019 4332 792 Blue 7
7 PM Sat 58 58 W 10 3260 3540 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 57 57 NW 10 3147 3540 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sat 56 56 NW 10 2738 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 56 56 NW 10 2738 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 55 55 N 12 2457 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 56 56 N 12 2738 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 56 56 N 12 2738 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 55 55 NE 13 2457 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 55 55 NE 13 2457 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 54 54 NE 13 2457 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 54 54 NE 16 2457 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 53 53 NE 16 2457 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 53 53 NE 16 2457 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 56 56 NE 16 2738 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 61 62 NE 16 4900 3609 69 Blue 6
10 AM Sun 63 66 NE 16 5916 5009 1469 Blue 10
11 AM Sun 67 71 E 9 7110 6633 3093 White 15
12 Noon Sun 70 76 E 9 8181 8181 4641 White 20
1 PM Sun 72 78 E 9 8603 8603 5063 White 22
2 PM Sun 75 80 E 9 9024 9024 5484 White 24
3 PM Sun 76 80 E 9 9024 9024 5484 White 24
4 PM Sun 75 77 E 9 8393 8393 4853 White 21
5 PM Sun 74 75 N 8 7968 7968 4428 White 19
6 PM Sun 70 70 N 8 6895 6256 2716 White 14
7 PM Sun 64 64 N 8 5229 4692 1152 Blue 8
8 PM Sun 62 62 N 8 4900 3609 69 Blue 6
9 PM Sun 61 61 N 8 4782 3540 0 Blue 5
10 PM Sun 61 61 N 8 4782 3540 0 Blue 5
11 PM Sun 59 59 N 18 3615 3540 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Mon 60 60 N 18 4345 3540 0 Blue 4
1 AM Mon 61 61 N 18 4782 3540 0 Blue 5
2 AM Mon 60 60 N 18 4345 3540 0 Blue 4
3 AM Mon 59 59 N 18 3615 3540 0 Blue 3
4 AM Mon 59 59 N 18 3615 3540 0 Blue 3
5 AM Mon 58 58 NE 22 3260 3540 0 Blue 2
6 AM Mon 57 57 NE 22 3147 3540 0 Blue 1
7 AM Mon 58 58 NE 22 3260 3540 0 Blue 2
8 AM Mon 60 60 NE 22 4345 3540 0 Blue 4
9 AM Mon 66 67 NE 22 6247 5210 1670 White 11
10 AM Mon 70 73 NE 22 7540 7371 3831 White 17
11 AM Mon 74 78 NE 17 8603 8603 5063 White 22
12 Noon Mon 77 83 NE 17 9658 9658 6118 White 27
1 PM Mon 80 86 NE 17 10284 10284 6744 White 30
2 PM Mon 83 88 NE 17 10696 10696 7156 White 32
3 PM Mon 85 89 NE 17 10902 10902 7362 White 33
4 PM Mon 84 86 NE 17 10284 10284 6744 White 30
5 PM Mon 82 83 N 17 9658 9658 6118 White 27
6 PM Mon 76 76 N 17 8181 8181 4641 White 20
7 PM Mon 68 68 N 17 6464 5488 1948 White 12
8 PM Mon 65 65 N 17 5524 4892 1352 Blue 9
9 PM Mon 64 64 N 17 5229 4692 1152 Blue 8
10 PM Mon 64 64 N 17 5229 4692 1152 Blue 8
11 PM Mon 62 62 NE 17 4900 3609 69 Blue 6
12 Midnight Tue 64 64 NE 17 5229 4692 1152 Blue 8
1 AM Tue 64 64 NE 17 5229 4692 1152 Blue 8
2 AM Tue 63 63 NE 17 5019 4332 792 Blue 7
3 AM Tue 62 62 NE 17 4900 3609 69 Blue 6
4 AM Tue 61 61 NE 17 4782 3540 0 Blue 5
5 AM Tue 60 60 NE 18 4345 3540 0 Blue 4
6 AM Tue 59 59 NE 18 3615 3540 0 Blue 3
7 AM Tue 60 60 NE 18 4345 3540 0 Blue 4
8 AM Tue 62 62 NE 18 4900 3609 69 Blue 6
9 AM Tue 68 69 NE 18 6679 5875 2335 White 13
10 AM Tue 71 74 NE 18 7754 7732 4192 White 18
11 AM Tue 76 80 N 13 9024 9024 5484 White 24
12 Noon Tue 79 85 N 13 10078 10078 6538 White 29
1 PM Tue 81 87 N 13 10490 10490 6950 White 31
2 PM Tue 84 89 N 13 10902 10902 7362 White 33
3 PM Tue 86 90 N 13 11106 11106 7566 White 34
4 PM Tue 85 87 N 13 10490 10490 6950 White 31
5 PM Tue 83 84 N 10 9869 9869 6329 White 28
6 PM Tue 78 78 N 10 8603 8603 5063 White 22
7 PM Tue 71 71 N 10 7110 6633 3093 White 15
8 PM Tue 69 69 N 10 6679 5875 2335 White 13
9 PM Tue 68 68 N 10 6464 5488 1948 White 12
10 PM Tue 67 67 N 10 6247 5210 1670 White 11
11 PM Tue 66 66 N 13 5916 5009 1469 Blue 10
12 Midnight Wed 67 67 N 13 6247 5210 1670 White 11
1 AM Wed 67 67 N 13 6247 5210 1670 White 11
2 AM Wed 67 67 N 13 6247 5210 1670 White 11
3 AM Wed 66 66 N 13 5916 5009 1469 Blue 10
4 AM Wed 65 65 N 13 5524 4892 1352 Blue 9
5 AM Wed 64 64 NE 16 5229 4692 1152 Blue 8
6 AM Wed 63 63 NE 16 5019 4332 792 Blue 7
7 AM Wed 64 64 NE 16 5229 4692 1152 Blue 8
8 AM Wed 66 66 NE 16 5916 5009 1469 Blue 10
9 AM Wed 71 72 NE 16 7325 7004 3464 White 16
10 AM Wed 74 77 NE 16 8393 8393 4853 White 21
11 AM Wed 78 82 N 12 9446 9446 5906 White 26
12 Noon Wed 81 87 N 12 10490 10490 6950 White 31
1 PM Wed 83 89 N 12 10902 10902 7362 White 33
2 PM Wed 86 91 N 12 11311 11311 7771 White 35
3 PM Wed 88 92 N 12 11515 11515 7975 White 36
4 PM Wed 87 89 N 12 10902 10902 7362 White 33
5 PM Wed 85 86 N 10 10284 10284 6744 White 30
6 PM Wed 80 80 N 10 9024 9024 5484 White 24
7 PM Wed 73 73 N 10 7540 7371 3831 White 17
8 PM Wed 70 70 N 10 6895 6256 2716 White 14
9 PM Wed 69 69 N 10 6679 5875 2335 White 13
10 PM Wed 68 68 N 10 6464 5488 1948 White 12
11 PM Wed 67 67 N 12 6247 5210 1670 White 11
12 Midnight Thu 68 68 N 12 6464 5488 1948 White 12
1 AM Thu 69 69 N 12 6679 5875 2335 White 13
2 AM Thu 68 68 N 12 6464 5488 1948 White 12
3 AM Thu 67 67 N 12 6247 5210 1670 White 11
4 AM Thu 66 66 N 12 5916 5009 1469 Blue 10
5 AM Thu 65 65 NE 13 5524 4892 1352 Blue 9
6 AM Thu 64 64 NE 13 5229 4692 1152 Blue 8
7 AM Thu 65 65 NE 13 5524 4892 1352 Blue 9
8 AM Thu 67 67 NE 13 6247 5210 1670 White 11
9 AM Thu 72 73 NE 13 7540 7371 3831 White 17
10 AM Thu 75 78 NE 13 8603 8603 5063 White 22
11 AM Thu 79 83 N 8 9658 9658 6118 White 27
12 Noon Thu 82 88 N 8 10696 10696 7156 White 32
1 PM Thu 84 90 N 8 11106 11106 7566 White 34
2 PM Thu 87 92 N 8 11515 11515 7975 White 36
3 PM Thu 89 93 N 8 11719 11719 8179 White 37
4 PM Thu 88 90 N 8 11106 11106 7566 White 34
5 PM Thu 86 87 NW 6 10490 10490 6950 White 31
6 PM Thu 81 81 NW 6 9235 9235 5695 White 25
7 PM Thu 74 74 NW 6 7754 7732 4192 White 18
8 PM Thu 72 72 NW 6 7325 7004 3464 White 16
9 PM Thu 71 71 NW 6 7110 6633 3093 White 15
10 PM Thu 70 70 NW 6 6895 6256 2716 White 14
11 PM Thu 69 69 N 9 6679 5875 2335 White 13
12 Midnight Fri 70 70 N 9 6895 6256 2716 White 14
1 AM Fri 70 70 N 9 6895 6256 2716 White 14
2 AM Fri 70 70 N 9 6895 6256 2716 White 14
3 AM Fri 69 69 N 9 6679 5875 2335 White 13
4 AM Fri 68 68 N 9 6464 5488 1948 White 12

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst