Detailed Predictions for: Kagel
Launch Altitude (f): 3540
LZ Altitude (f): 1340
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

17 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 56 56 SW 5 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 55 55 SW 5 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 54 54 SW 5 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 54 54 SW 6 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 55 55 SW 6 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 56 56 SW 6 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 58 59 SW 6 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 60 61 SW 6 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 62 63 SW 6 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 63 64 SW 7 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 63 64 SW 7 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 63 63 SW 7 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 62 62 W 8 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 61 61 W 8 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 60 60 W 8 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 58 58 W 8 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 57 57 W 8 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 56 56 W 8 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 55 55 NE 20 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 54 54 NE 20 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 52 52 NE 20 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 51 51 NE 20 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 50 50 NE 20 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 49 49 NE 20 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 48 48 NE 22 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 47 47 NE 22 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 47 47 NE 22 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 48 48 NE 22 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 50 50 NE 22 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 53 54 NE 22 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 56 58 NE 16 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 58 60 NE 16 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 61 64 NE 16 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 63 65 NE 16 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 65 66 NE 16 3129 3540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 66 66 NE 16 3129 3540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 66 66 NE 10 3129 3540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 64 64 NE 10 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 61 61 NE 10 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 58 58 NE 10 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 56 56 NE 10 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 54 54 NE 10 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 53 53 NE 7 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 51 51 NE 7 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 50 50 NE 7 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 49 49 NE 7 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 48 48 NE 7 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 48 48 NE 7 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 47 47 NE 9 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 46 46 NE 9 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 46 46 NE 9 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 47 47 NE 9 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 50 50 NE 9 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 54 55 NE 9 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 59 61 N 5 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 62 64 N 5 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 65 67 N 5 3674 3540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 67 69 N 5 4770 3540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 68 69 N 5 4770 3540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 69 69 N 5 4770 3540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 69 69 NW 5 4770 3540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 67 67 NW 5 3674 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 65 65 NW 5 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 62 62 NW 5 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 60 60 NW 5 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 59 59 NW 5 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 58 58 N 6 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 57 57 N 6 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 57 57 N 6 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 56 56 N 6 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 55 55 N 6 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 54 54 N 6 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 53 53 N 5 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 53 53 N 5 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 54 54 N 5 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 56 56 N 5 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 59 59 N 5 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 62 63 N 5 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 65 66 W 7 3129 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 67 69 W 7 4770 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 68 70 W 7 5273 3656 116 Blue 1
1 PM Mon 68 70 W 7 5273 3656 116 Blue 1
2 PM Mon 67 68 W 7 4204 3540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 66 66 W 7 3129 3540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 65 65 W 6 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 64 64 W 6 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 63 63 W 6 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 62 62 W 6 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 61 61 W 6 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 60 60 W 6 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 60 60 N 6 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 59 59 N 6 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 59 59 N 6 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 58 58 N 6 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 58 58 N 6 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 58 58 N 6 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 58 58 N 7 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 59 59 N 7 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 60 60 N 7 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 61 61 N 7 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 62 62 N 7 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 64 65 N 7 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 65 66 NW 7 3129 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 67 69 NW 7 4770 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 68 70 NW 7 5273 3656 116 Blue 1
1 PM Tue 70 72 NW 7 6373 4720 1180 Blue 3
2 PM Tue 71 72 NW 7 6373 4720 1180 Blue 3
3 PM Tue 72 72 NW 7 6373 4720 1180 Blue 3
4 PM Tue 72 72 NW 8 6373 4720 1180 Blue 3
5 PM Tue 72 72 NW 8 6373 4720 1180 Blue 3
6 PM Tue 71 71 NW 8 5789 4178 638 Blue 2
7 PM Tue 69 69 NW 8 4770 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 67 67 NW 8 3674 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 65 65 NW 8 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 63 63 N 9 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 62 62 N 9 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 60 60 N 9 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 59 59 N 9 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 59 59 N 9 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 59 59 N 9 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 59 59 N 10 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 60 60 N 10 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 61 61 N 10 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 62 62 N 10 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 64 64 N 10 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 66 67 N 10 3674 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 67 69 N 10 4770 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 69 71 N 10 5789 4178 638 Blue 2
12 Noon Wed 71 73 N 10 6656 5220 1680 Blue 4
1 PM Wed 72 74 N 10 6972 5749 2209 Blue 5
2 PM Wed 73 74 N 10 6972 5749 2209 Blue 5
3 PM Wed 74 74 N 10 6972 5749 2209 Blue 5
4 PM Wed 74 74 N 10 6972 5749 2209 Blue 5
5 PM Wed 73 73 N 10 6656 5220 1680 Blue 4
6 PM Wed 72 72 N 10 6373 4720 1180 Blue 3
7 PM Wed 70 70 N 10 5273 3656 116 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 68 68 N 10 4204 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 65 65 N 10 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 63 63 N 9 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 62 62 N 9 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 60 60 N 9 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 60 60 N 9 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 59 59 N 9 2625 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 59 59 N 9 2625 3540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst