Detailed Predictions for: Kagel
Launch Altitude (f): 3540
LZ Altitude (f): 1340
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 55 55 N 25 3027 3540 0 Blue 3
6 AM Fri 54 54 N 25 2989 3540 0 Blue 2
7 AM Fri 55 55 N 25 3027 3540 0 Blue 3
8 AM Fri 57 57 N 25 3105 3540 0 Blue 5
9 AM Fri 62 63 N 25 3338 3540 0 Blue 11
10 AM Fri 65 67 N 25 3500 3540 0 Blue 15
11 AM Fri 67 70 N 20 3628 3540 0 Blue 18
12 Noon Fri 69 73 N 20 3797 3626 86 Blue 21
1 PM Fri 70 74 N 20 3914 3669 129 Blue 22
2 PM Fri 71 74 N 20 3914 3669 129 Blue 22
3 PM Fri 71 73 N 20 3797 3626 86 Blue 21
4 PM Fri 71 72 N 20 3717 3584 44 Blue 20
5 PM Fri 69 69 N 20 3585 3540 0 Blue 17
6 PM Fri 67 67 N 20 3500 3540 0 Blue 15
7 PM Fri 63 63 N 20 3338 3540 0 Blue 11
8 PM Fri 61 61 N 20 3260 3540 0 Blue 9
9 PM Fri 60 60 N 20 3222 3540 0 Blue 8
10 PM Fri 60 60 N 20 3222 3540 0 Blue 8
11 PM Fri 60 60 N 10 3222 3540 0 Blue 8
12 Midnight Sat 60 60 N 10 3222 3540 0 Blue 8
1 AM Sat 59 59 N 10 3183 3540 0 Blue 7
2 AM Sat 58 58 N 6 3144 3540 0 Blue 6
3 AM Sat 58 58 N 6 3144 3540 0 Blue 6
4 AM Sat 57 57 N 6 3105 3540 0 Blue 5
5 AM Sat 57 57 N 5 3105 3540 0 Blue 5
6 AM Sat 55 55 N 5 3027 3540 0 Blue 3
7 AM Sat 56 56 N 5 3066 3540 0 Blue 4
8 AM Sat 58 58 N 5 3144 3540 0 Blue 6
9 AM Sat 63 64 N 5 3377 3540 0 Blue 12
10 AM Sat 66 68 N 5 3543 3540 0 Blue 16
11 AM Sat 68 71 N 10 3670 3541 1 Blue 19
12 Noon Sat 70 74 N 10 3914 3669 129 Blue 22
1 PM Sat 72 76 N 10 4439 3794 254 Blue 24
2 PM Sat 73 77 N 10 4603 3901 361 Blue 25
3 PM Sat 73 76 N 10 4439 3794 254 Blue 24
4 PM Sat 73 74 N 10 3914 3669 129 Blue 22
5 PM Sat 71 71 N 17 3670 3541 1 Blue 19
6 PM Sat 69 69 N 17 3585 3540 0 Blue 17
7 PM Sat 65 65 N 17 3416 3540 0 Blue 13
8 PM Sat 63 63 N 17 3338 3540 0 Blue 11
9 PM Sat 61 61 N 17 3260 3540 0 Blue 9
10 PM Sat 61 61 N 17 3260 3540 0 Blue 9
11 PM Sat 62 62 N 30 3299 3540 0 Blue 10
12 Midnight Sun 61 61 N 30 3260 3540 0 Blue 9
1 AM Sun 60 60 N 30 3222 3540 0 Blue 8
2 AM Sun 60 60 N 30 3222 3540 0 Blue 8
3 AM Sun 59 59 N 30 3183 3540 0 Blue 7
4 AM Sun 58 58 N 30 3144 3540 0 Blue 6
5 AM Sun 58 58 N 32 3144 3540 0 Blue 6
6 AM Sun 56 56 N 32 3066 3540 0 Blue 4
7 AM Sun 57 57 N 32 3105 3540 0 Blue 5
8 AM Sun 59 59 N 32 3183 3540 0 Blue 7
9 AM Sun 64 65 N 32 3416 3540 0 Blue 13
10 AM Sun 67 69 N 32 3585 3540 0 Blue 17
11 AM Sun 69 72 N 22 3717 3584 44 Blue 20
12 Noon Sun 71 75 N 22 4237 3714 174 Blue 23
1 PM Sun 73 77 N 22 4603 3901 361 Blue 25
2 PM Sun 74 78 N 22 4766 4221 681 Blue 26
3 PM Sun 74 77 N 22 4603 3901 361 Blue 25
4 PM Sun 74 75 N 22 4237 3714 174 Blue 23
5 PM Sun 72 72 N 22 3717 3584 44 Blue 20
6 PM Sun 70 70 N 22 3628 3540 0 Blue 18
7 PM Sun 67 67 N 22 3500 3540 0 Blue 15
8 PM Sun 65 65 N 22 3416 3540 0 Blue 13
9 PM Sun 64 64 N 22 3377 3540 0 Blue 12
10 PM Sun 64 64 N 22 3377 3540 0 Blue 12
11 PM Sun 64 64 NE 15 3377 3540 0 Blue 12
12 Midnight Mon 63 63 NE 15 3338 3540 0 Blue 11
1 AM Mon 62 62 NE 15 3299 3540 0 Blue 10
2 AM Mon 62 62 NE 15 3299 3540 0 Blue 10
3 AM Mon 62 62 NE 15 3299 3540 0 Blue 10
4 AM Mon 61 61 NE 15 3260 3540 0 Blue 9
5 AM Mon 60 60 NE 15 3222 3540 0 Blue 8
6 AM Mon 59 59 NE 15 3183 3540 0 Blue 7
7 AM Mon 60 60 NE 15 3222 3540 0 Blue 8
8 AM Mon 63 63 NE 15 3338 3540 0 Blue 11
9 AM Mon 68 69 NE 15 3585 3540 0 Blue 17
10 AM Mon 72 74 NE 15 3914 3669 129 Blue 22
11 AM Mon 74 77 NE 15 4603 3901 361 Blue 25
12 Noon Mon 76 80 NE 15 5105 4592 1052 Blue 28
1 PM Mon 78 82 NE 15 5286 5008 1468 Blue 30
2 PM Mon 79 83 NE 15 5420 5098 1558 Blue 31
3 PM Mon 79 82 NE 15 5286 5008 1468 Blue 30
4 PM Mon 79 80 NE 15 5105 4592 1052 Blue 28
5 PM Mon 77 77 NE 12 4603 3901 361 Blue 25
6 PM Mon 75 75 NE 12 4237 3714 174 Blue 23
7 PM Mon 71 71 NE 12 3670 3541 1 Blue 19
8 PM Mon 69 69 NE 12 3585 3540 0 Blue 17
9 PM Mon 68 68 NE 12 3543 3540 0 Blue 16
10 PM Mon 68 68 NE 12 3543 3540 0 Blue 16
11 PM Mon 68 68 NE 14 3543 3540 0 Blue 16
12 Midnight Tue 68 68 NE 14 3543 3540 0 Blue 16
1 AM Tue 67 67 NE 14 3500 3540 0 Blue 15
2 AM Tue 66 66 NE 14 3458 3540 0 Blue 14
3 AM Tue 66 66 NE 14 3458 3540 0 Blue 14
4 AM Tue 65 65 NE 14 3416 3540 0 Blue 13
5 AM Tue 65 65 NE 13 3416 3540 0 Blue 13
6 AM Tue 63 63 NE 13 3338 3540 0 Blue 11
7 AM Tue 64 64 NE 13 3377 3540 0 Blue 12
8 AM Tue 67 67 NE 13 3500 3540 0 Blue 15
9 AM Tue 72 73 NE 13 3797 3626 86 Blue 21
10 AM Tue 76 78 NE 13 4766 4221 681 Blue 26
11 AM Tue 78 81 W 7 5196 4755 1215 Blue 29
12 Noon Tue 80 84 W 7 6252 5188 1648 Blue 32
1 PM Tue 82 86 W 7 6755 5408 1868 Blue 34
2 PM Tue 83 87 W 7 7005 6223 2683 Blue 35
3 PM Tue 83 86 W 7 6755 5408 1868 Blue 34
4 PM Tue 83 84 W 7 6252 5188 1648 Blue 32
5 PM Tue 80 80 W 7 5105 4592 1052 Blue 28
6 PM Tue 77 77 W 7 4603 3901 361 Blue 25
7 PM Tue 73 73 W 7 3797 3626 86 Blue 21
8 PM Tue 70 70 W 7 3628 3540 0 Blue 18
9 PM Tue 68 68 W 7 3543 3540 0 Blue 16
10 PM Tue 68 68 W 7 3543 3540 0 Blue 16
11 PM Tue 69 69 NE 6 3585 3540 0 Blue 17
12 Midnight Wed 68 68 NE 6 3543 3540 0 Blue 16
1 AM Wed 67 67 NE 6 3500 3540 0 Blue 15
2 AM Wed 66 66 NE 6 3458 3540 0 Blue 14
3 AM Wed 66 66 NE 6 3458 3540 0 Blue 14
4 AM Wed 65 65 NE 6 3416 3540 0 Blue 13
5 AM Wed 64 64 NE 6 3377 3540 0 Blue 12
6 AM Wed 62 62 NE 6 3299 3540 0 Blue 10
7 AM Wed 63 63 NE 6 3338 3540 0 Blue 11
8 AM Wed 65 65 NE 6 3416 3540 0 Blue 13
9 AM Wed 70 71 NE 6 3670 3541 1 Blue 19
10 AM Wed 73 75 NE 6 4237 3714 174 Blue 23
11 AM Wed 75 78 S 7 4766 4221 681 Blue 26
12 Noon Wed 77 81 S 7 5196 4755 1215 Blue 29
1 PM Wed 79 83 S 7 5420 5098 1558 Blue 31
2 PM Wed 80 84 S 7 6252 5188 1648 Blue 32
3 PM Wed 80 83 S 7 5420 5098 1558 Blue 31
4 PM Wed 80 81 S 7 5196 4755 1215 Blue 29
5 PM Wed 78 78 S 7 4766 4221 681 Blue 26
6 PM Wed 75 75 S 7 4237 3714 174 Blue 23
7 PM Wed 70 70 S 7 3628 3540 0 Blue 18
8 PM Wed 68 68 S 7 3543 3540 0 Blue 16
9 PM Wed 66 66 S 7 3458 3540 0 Blue 14
10 PM Wed 66 66 S 7 3458 3540 0 Blue 14
11 PM Wed 67 67 NE 10 3500 3540 0 Blue 15
12 Midnight Thu 66 66 NE 10 3458 3540 0 Blue 14
1 AM Thu 65 65 NE 10 3416 3540 0 Blue 13
2 AM Thu 64 64 NE 10 3377 3540 0 Blue 12
3 AM Thu 64 64 NE 10 3377 3540 0 Blue 12
4 AM Thu 63 63 NE 10 3338 3540 0 Blue 11

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst