Detailed Predictions for: Laguna
Launch Altitude (f): 5630
LZ Altitude (f): 2210
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

19 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sun 42 42 E 2 5197 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 43 43 E 2 5197 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 44 44 E 2 5197 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 46 46 E 2 5197 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 50 50 E 2 5197 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 53 54 NE 3 5202 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 56 58 NE 3 6142 5941 311 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 57 60 NE 5 6311 6074 444 Blue 5
12 Noon Sun 58 61 NE 5 6413 6140 510 Blue 6
1 PM Sun 59 61 NE 5 6413 6140 510 Blue 6
2 PM Sun 58 59 NE 3 6218 6007 377 Blue 4
3 PM Sun 58 58 NE 3 6142 5941 311 Blue 3
4 PM Sun 56 56 NE 2 6009 5630 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sun 52 52 NE 2 5197 5630 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 48 48 NE 2 5197 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 45 45 NE 2 5197 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 44 44 E 2 5197 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 44 44 E 1 5197 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 44 44 E 1 5197 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 44 44 SE 1 5197 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 44 44 SW 1 5197 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 45 45 W 2 5197 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 45 45 W 2 5197 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 46 46 W 2 5197 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 47 47 NW 2 5197 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 47 47 NW 2 5197 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 48 48 NW 2 5197 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 50 50 NW 2 5197 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 54 54 NW 2 5202 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 57 58 NW 2 6142 5941 311 Blue 3
10 AM Mon 61 62 N 2 6557 6216 586 Blue 7
11 AM Mon 63 65 N 1 8131 6551 921 Blue 10
12 Noon Mon 64 66 NE 2 8429 6938 1308 Blue 11
1 PM Mon 63 64 NE 1 7621 6408 778 Blue 9
2 PM Mon 63 64 N 1 7621 6408 778 Blue 9
3 PM Mon 62 62 NW 2 6557 6216 586 Blue 7
4 PM Mon 60 60 NW 3 6311 6074 444 Blue 5
5 PM Mon 59 59 NW 3 6218 6007 377 Blue 4
6 PM Mon 57 57 N 3 6075 5630 0 Blue 2
7 PM Mon 56 56 N 3 6009 5630 0 Blue 1
8 PM Mon 55 55 N 3 5942 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 55 55 N 3 5942 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 54 54 NE 5 5202 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 53 53 NE 6 5197 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 52 52 NE 7 5197 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 51 51 NE 7 5197 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 50 50 NE 7 5197 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 49 49 NE 7 5197 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 49 49 NE 7 5197 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 49 49 NE 8 5197 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 50 50 E 8 5197 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 51 51 NE 8 5197 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 54 54 E 9 5202 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 56 57 NE 9 6075 5630 0 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 59 61 NE 9 6413 6140 510 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 61 63 NE 10 6971 6308 678 Blue 8
12 Noon Tue 62 64 NE 10 7621 6408 778 Blue 9
1 PM Tue 63 65 NE 10 8131 6551 921 Blue 10
2 PM Tue 63 64 NE 10 7621 6408 778 Blue 9
3 PM Tue 64 64 NE 9 7621 6408 778 Blue 9
4 PM Tue 65 65 NE 9 8131 6551 921 Blue 10
5 PM Tue 66 66 NE 9 8429 6938 1308 Blue 11
6 PM Tue 67 67 NE 9 8724 7576 1946 Blue 12
7 PM Tue 67 67 E 9 8724 7576 1946 Blue 12
8 PM Tue 67 67 E 9 8724 7576 1946 Blue 12
9 PM Tue 65 65 E 9 8131 6551 921 Blue 10
10 PM Tue 62 62 E 9 6557 6216 586 Blue 7
11 PM Tue 59 59 E 9 6218 6007 377 Blue 4
12 Midnight Wed 57 57 E 9 6075 5630 0 Blue 2
1 AM Wed 55 55 E 9 5942 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 53 53 E 9 5197 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 53 53 E 9 5197 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 54 54 NE 8 5202 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 56 56 NE 8 6009 5630 0 Blue 1
6 AM Wed 58 58 NE 8 6142 5941 311 Blue 3
7 AM Wed 61 61 E 8 6413 6140 510 Blue 6
8 AM Wed 62 62 E 8 6557 6216 586 Blue 7
9 AM Wed 64 65 E 8 8131 6551 921 Blue 10
10 AM Wed 65 67 E 10 8724 7576 1946 Blue 12
11 AM Wed 66 69 E 10 9309 8400 2770 Blue 14
12 Noon Wed 67 70 E 10 9802 8693 3063 Blue 15
1 PM Wed 68 70 E 8 9802 8693 3063 Blue 15
2 PM Wed 69 70 E 8 9802 8693 3063 Blue 15
3 PM Wed 69 69 E 8 9309 8400 2770 Blue 14
4 PM Wed 68 68 NE 7 9018 8105 2475 Blue 13
5 PM Wed 66 66 NE 7 8429 6938 1308 Blue 11
6 PM Wed 64 64 NE 7 7621 6408 778 Blue 9
7 PM Wed 61 61 E 6 6413 6140 510 Blue 6
8 PM Wed 60 60 E 6 6311 6074 444 Blue 5
9 PM Wed 60 60 E 6 6311 6074 444 Blue 5
10 PM Wed 60 60 E 6 6311 6074 444 Blue 5
11 PM Wed 60 60 E 6 6311 6074 444 Blue 5
12 Midnight Thu 59 59 E 6 6218 6007 377 Blue 4
1 AM Thu 58 58 E 5 6142 5941 311 Blue 3
2 AM Thu 58 58 E 5 6142 5941 311 Blue 3
3 AM Thu 57 57 E 5 6075 5630 0 Blue 2
4 AM Thu 57 57 E 6 6075 5630 0 Blue 2
5 AM Thu 58 58 E 6 6142 5941 311 Blue 3
6 AM Thu 60 60 E 6 6311 6074 444 Blue 5
7 AM Thu 63 63 E 5 6971 6308 678 Blue 8
8 AM Thu 65 65 E 5 8131 6551 921 Blue 10
9 AM Thu 67 68 E 5 9018 8105 2475 Blue 13
10 AM Thu 69 71 E 6 10394 8984 3354 Blue 16
11 AM Thu 70 73 E 6 11547 9718 4088 Blue 18
12 Noon Thu 70 73 E 6 11547 9718 4088 Blue 18
1 PM Thu 70 72 E 5 10981 9273 3643 Blue 17
2 PM Thu 70 71 E 5 10394 8984 3354 Blue 16
3 PM Thu 70 70 E 5 9802 8693 3063 Blue 15
4 PM Thu 69 69 N 3 9309 8400 2770 Blue 14
5 PM Thu 68 68 N 3 9018 8105 2475 Blue 13
6 PM Thu 66 66 N 3 8429 6938 1308 Blue 11
7 PM Thu 64 64 NE 1 7621 6408 778 Blue 9
8 PM Thu 62 62 NE 1 6557 6216 586 Blue 7
9 PM Thu 60 60 NE 1 6311 6074 444 Blue 5
10 PM Thu 59 59 W 2 6218 6007 377 Blue 4
11 PM Thu 59 59 W 2 6218 6007 377 Blue 4
12 Midnight Fri 60 60 W 2 6311 6074 444 Blue 5
1 AM Fri 60 60 W 5 6311 6074 444 Blue 5
2 AM Fri 60 60 W 5 6311 6074 444 Blue 5
3 AM Fri 60 60 W 5 6311 6074 444 Blue 5
4 AM Fri 60 60 W 6 6311 6074 444 Blue 5
5 AM Fri 60 60 W 6 6311 6074 444 Blue 5
6 AM Fri 62 62 W 6 6557 6216 586 Blue 7
7 AM Fri 64 64 W 7 7621 6408 778 Blue 9
8 AM Fri 66 66 W 7 8429 6938 1308 Blue 11
9 AM Fri 67 68 W 7 9018 8105 2475 Blue 13
10 AM Fri 68 70 SW 6 9802 8693 3063 Blue 15
11 AM Fri 69 72 SW 6 10981 9273 3643 Blue 17
12 Noon Fri 69 72 SW 6 10981 9273 3643 Blue 17
1 PM Fri 69 71 W 8 10394 8984 3354 Blue 16
2 PM Fri 69 70 W 8 9802 8693 3063 Blue 15
3 PM Fri 68 68 W 8 9018 8105 2475 Blue 13
4 PM Fri 68 68 W 8 9018 8105 2475 Blue 13
5 PM Fri 66 66 W 8 8429 6938 1308 Blue 11
6 PM Fri 65 65 W 8 8131 6551 921 Blue 10
7 PM Fri 65 65 W 9 8131 6551 921 Blue 10
8 PM Fri 65 65 W 9 8131 6551 921 Blue 10
9 PM Fri 65 65 W 9 8131 6551 921 Blue 10
10 PM Fri 65 65 W 10 8131 6551 921 Blue 10
11 PM Fri 65 65 W 10 8131 6551 921 Blue 10
12 Midnight Sat 64 64 W 10 7621 6408 778 Blue 9
1 AM Sat 64 64 W 10 7621 6408 778 Blue 9
2 AM Sat 63 63 W 10 6971 6308 678 Blue 8
3 AM Sat 61 61 W 10 6413 6140 510 Blue 6

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst