Detailed Predictions for: Laguna
Launch Altitude (f): 5630
LZ Altitude (f): 2210
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

1 DEC 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Tue 47 47 NE 6 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 46 46 NE 6 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 45 45 E 7 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 45 45 E 8 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 48 48 E 8 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 52 53 E 9 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 55 57 E 12 5942 5630 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 55 57 E 12 5942 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 56 58 E 13 6382 5630 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 56 58 E 14 6382 5630 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 56 57 E 13 5942 5630 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 55 55 E 12 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 55 55 E 10 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 53 53 E 10 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 49 49 E 9 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 46 46 E 9 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 44 44 E 9 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 43 43 E 9 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 43 43 E 8 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 42 42 E 8 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 42 42 E 7 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 41 41 E 6 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 41 41 E 6 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 41 41 E 6 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 40 40 E 6 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 39 39 E 6 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 39 39 E 6 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 40 40 E 6 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 42 42 E 6 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 46 47 E 6 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 50 52 NE 7 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 52 54 NE 7 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 52 54 NE 7 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 52 54 NE 7 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 52 53 NE 6 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 52 52 NE 6 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 51 51 NE 6 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 50 50 NE 7 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 48 48 NE 8 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 47 47 NE 12 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 45 45 NE 14 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 43 43 NE 16 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 41 41 NE 17 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 39 39 NE 17 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 38 38 NE 17 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 36 36 NE 18 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 35 35 NE 18 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 34 34 NE 20 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 33 33 NE 21 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 33 33 NE 20 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 34 34 NE 18 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 36 36 NE 17 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 39 39 NE 18 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 41 42 NE 18 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 43 44 NE 20 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 42 44 NE 20 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 42 44 E 20 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 41 43 E 20 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 40 41 E 20 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 39 39 E 18 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 38 38 E 17 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 37 37 E 17 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 36 36 E 16 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 34 34 E 16 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 32 32 E 15 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 31 31 E 15 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 31 31 E 14 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 32 32 E 14 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 34 34 E 14 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 35 35 E 15 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 35 35 E 15 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 34 34 E 15 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 33 33 E 15 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 33 33 E 15 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 33 33 E 15 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 35 35 E 16 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 37 37 E 16 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 40 41 E 16 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 43 45 E 17 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 45 47 E 17 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 46 48 E 17 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 47 49 NE 17 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 47 48 NE 17 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 48 48 NE 17 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 47 47 NE 16 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 46 46 NE 16 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 42 42 NE 16 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 38 38 E 14 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 36 36 E 14 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 35 35 E 14 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 34 34 NE 13 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 34 34 NE 13 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 33 33 NE 13 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 33 33 NE 14 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 34 34 NE 14 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 35 35 NE 14 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 36 36 E 13 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 36 36 E 13 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 36 36 E 13 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 38 38 E 14 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 40 40 E 14 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 44 45 E 14 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 47 49 E 15 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 48 50 E 15 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 49 51 E 15 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 50 52 E 16 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 51 52 E 16 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 50 50 E 16 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 50 50 E 14 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 48 48 E 14 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 45 45 E 14 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 42 42 NE 10 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 40 40 NE 10 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 38 38 NE 10 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 37 37 E 10 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 36 36 E 10 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 36 36 E 10 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 36 36 E 10 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 36 36 E 10 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 36 36 E 10 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 37 37 E 12 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 40 40 E 12 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 42 42 E 12 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 45 45 E 12 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 48 48 E 12 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 50 51 E 12 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 51 53 E 14 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 52 54 E 14 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 52 54 E 14 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 53 55 E 14 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 54 55 E 14 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 53 53 E 14 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 54 54 NE 12 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 52 52 NE 12 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 50 50 NE 12 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 47 47 NE 10 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 45 45 NE 10 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 43 43 NE 10 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 42 42 NE 9 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 42 42 NE 9 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 42 42 NE 9 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 42 42 E 10 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 41 41 E 10 5062 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 41 41 E 10 5062 5630 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst