Detailed Predictions for: Laguna
Launch Altitude (f): 5630
LZ Altitude (f): 2210
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

22 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 41 41 SW 22 5207 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 41 41 SW 20 5207 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 41 41 SW 18 5207 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 43 43 SW 15 5207 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 46 47 SW 15 5694 5630 0 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 48 49 SW 15 6263 5630 0 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 50 54 SW 16 7250 6667 1037 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 50 55 SW 16 7352 6978 1348 Blue 9
1 PM Fri 50 55 SW 17 7352 6978 1348 Blue 9
2 PM Fri 50 54 W 18 7250 6667 1037 Blue 8
3 PM Fri 50 53 W 18 7148 6394 764 Blue 7
4 PM Fri 49 51 W 20 6680 6125 495 Blue 5
5 PM Fri 48 48 W 22 6128 5630 0 Blue 2
6 PM Fri 44 44 W 23 5207 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 42 42 W 22 5207 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 40 40 SW 21 5207 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 39 39 SW 21 5207 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 39 39 SW 21 5207 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 39 39 W 20 5207 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 41 41 W 18 5207 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 42 42 W 18 5207 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 41 41 W 16 5207 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 41 41 W 16 5207 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 40 40 W 14 5207 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 39 39 W 12 5207 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 40 40 W 9 5207 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 39 39 W 8 5207 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 43 43 NW 6 5207 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 48 49 W 6 6263 5630 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sat 52 54 W 6 7250 6667 1037 Blue 8
11 AM Sat 53 57 W 5 7803 7244 1614 Blue 11
12 Noon Sat 55 60 NW 3 8222 7783 2153 Blue 14
1 PM Sat 55 60 NW 3 8222 7783 2153 Blue 14
2 PM Sat 55 59 NW 6 8083 7506 1876 Blue 13
3 PM Sat 55 58 NW 7 7943 7346 1716 Blue 12
4 PM Sat 55 57 NW 7 7803 7244 1614 Blue 11
5 PM Sat 53 53 NW 8 7148 6394 764 Blue 7
6 PM Sat 49 49 NW 7 6263 5630 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 47 47 NW 7 5694 5630 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sat 46 46 N 7 5432 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 45 45 N 7 5207 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 45 45 N 8 5207 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 45 45 NE 7 5207 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 47 47 NE 7 5694 5630 0 Blue 1
1 AM Sun 48 48 NE 7 6128 5630 0 Blue 2
2 AM Sun 47 47 E 9 5694 5630 0 Blue 1
3 AM Sun 47 47 E 8 5694 5630 0 Blue 1
4 AM Sun 46 46 E 8 5432 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 45 45 E 10 5207 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 46 46 E 10 5432 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 45 45 E 10 5207 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 49 49 E 12 6263 5630 0 Blue 3
9 AM Sun 54 55 E 12 7352 6978 1348 Blue 9
10 AM Sun 58 61 E 12 8362 7931 2301 Blue 15
11 AM Sun 59 64 E 10 9905 8348 2718 Blue 18
12 Noon Sun 61 67 E 10 10799 9813 4183 Blue 21
1 PM Sun 61 67 E 10 10799 9813 4183 Blue 21
2 PM Sun 61 66 E 9 10541 9178 3548 Blue 20
3 PM Sun 60 64 E 9 9905 8348 2718 Blue 18
4 PM Sun 60 62 E 9 8582 8070 2440 Blue 16
5 PM Sun 58 59 NE 8 8083 7506 1876 Blue 13
6 PM Sun 52 52 NE 8 6994 6259 629 Blue 6
7 PM Sun 49 49 NE 8 6263 5630 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sun 47 47 NE 7 5694 5630 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sun 45 45 NE 7 5207 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 45 45 NE 7 5207 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 45 45 N 10 5207 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 48 48 N 10 6128 5630 0 Blue 2
1 AM Mon 50 50 N 10 6398 5692 62 Blue 4
2 AM Mon 48 48 NE 13 6128 5630 0 Blue 2
3 AM Mon 48 48 NE 13 6128 5630 0 Blue 2
4 AM Mon 47 47 NE 13 5694 5630 0 Blue 1
5 AM Mon 45 45 NE 15 5207 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 46 46 NE 15 5432 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 45 45 NE 15 5207 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 50 50 NE 14 6398 5692 62 Blue 4
9 AM Mon 55 56 NE 14 7525 7142 1512 Blue 10
10 AM Mon 60 63 NE 14 9260 8209 2579 Blue 17
11 AM Mon 62 66 NE 16 10541 9178 3548 Blue 20
12 Noon Mon 64 69 NE 16 11309 10498 4868 Blue 23
1 PM Mon 65 70 NE 16 12233 10753 5123 Blue 24
2 PM Mon 64 69 NE 13 11309 10498 4868 Blue 23
3 PM Mon 64 67 NE 13 10799 9813 4183 Blue 21
4 PM Mon 63 65 NE 13 10283 8511 2881 Blue 19
5 PM Mon 61 62 NE 17 8582 8070 2440 Blue 16
6 PM Mon 56 56 NE 17 7525 7142 1512 Blue 10
7 PM Mon 53 53 NE 17 7148 6394 764 Blue 7
8 PM Mon 52 52 NE 14 6994 6259 629 Blue 6
9 PM Mon 50 50 NE 14 6398 5692 62 Blue 4
10 PM Mon 50 50 NE 14 6398 5692 62 Blue 4
11 PM Mon 50 50 NE 16 6398 5692 62 Blue 4
12 Midnight Tue 52 52 NE 16 6994 6259 629 Blue 6
1 AM Tue 54 54 NE 16 7250 6667 1037 Blue 8
2 AM Tue 53 53 NE 15 7148 6394 764 Blue 7
3 AM Tue 52 52 NE 15 6994 6259 629 Blue 6
4 AM Tue 52 52 NE 15 6994 6259 629 Blue 6
5 AM Tue 50 50 NE 16 6398 5692 62 Blue 4
6 AM Tue 51 51 NE 16 6680 6125 495 Blue 5
7 AM Tue 50 50 NE 16 6398 5692 62 Blue 4
8 AM Tue 54 54 NE 16 7250 6667 1037 Blue 8
9 AM Tue 59 60 NE 16 8222 7783 2153 Blue 14
10 AM Tue 63 66 NE 16 10541 9178 3548 Blue 20
11 AM Tue 64 69 NE 16 11309 10498 4868 Blue 23
12 Noon Tue 66 72 NE 16 13951 11260 5630 Blue 26
1 PM Tue 67 73 NE 16 14705 12020 6390 Blue 27
2 PM Tue 66 71 NE 14 13134 11007 5377 Blue 25
3 PM Tue 66 70 NE 14 12233 10753 5123 Blue 24
4 PM Tue 65 67 NE 14 10799 9813 4183 Blue 21
5 PM Tue 63 64 NE 12 9905 8348 2718 Blue 18
6 PM Tue 58 58 NE 12 7943 7346 1716 Blue 12
7 PM Tue 55 55 NE 12 7352 6978 1348 Blue 9
8 PM Tue 54 54 NE 7 7250 6667 1037 Blue 8
9 PM Tue 52 52 NE 7 6994 6259 629 Blue 6
10 PM Tue 52 52 NE 7 6994 6259 629 Blue 6
11 PM Tue 52 52 NE 9 6994 6259 629 Blue 6
12 Midnight Wed 54 54 NE 9 7250 6667 1037 Blue 8
1 AM Wed 56 56 NE 9 7525 7142 1512 Blue 10
2 AM Wed 55 55 NE 8 7352 6978 1348 Blue 9
3 AM Wed 54 54 NE 8 7250 6667 1037 Blue 8
4 AM Wed 54 54 NE 8 7250 6667 1037 Blue 8
5 AM Wed 52 52 NE 6 6994 6259 629 Blue 6
6 AM Wed 53 53 NE 6 7148 6394 764 Blue 7
7 AM Wed 52 52 NE 6 6994 6259 629 Blue 6
8 AM Wed 56 56 NE 9 7525 7142 1512 Blue 10
9 AM Wed 61 63 NE 9 9260 8209 2579 Blue 17
10 AM Wed 65 68 NE 9 11055 10240 4610 Blue 22
11 AM Wed 66 71 NE 16 13134 11007 5377 Blue 25
12 Noon Wed 68 74 NE 16 15408 12915 7285 Blue 28
1 PM Wed 69 75 NE 16 16083 13728 8098 White 29
2 PM Wed 68 73 E 14 14705 12020 6390 Blue 27
3 PM Wed 67 71 E 14 13134 11007 5377 Blue 25
4 PM Wed 67 69 E 14 11309 10498 4868 Blue 23
5 PM Wed 64 65 NE 12 10283 8511 2881 Blue 19
6 PM Wed 58 58 NE 12 7943 7346 1716 Blue 12
7 PM Wed 55 55 NE 12 7352 6978 1348 Blue 9
8 PM Wed 53 53 NE 8 7148 6394 764 Blue 7
9 PM Wed 51 51 NE 8 6680 6125 495 Blue 5
10 PM Wed 51 51 NE 8 6680 6125 495 Blue 5
11 PM Wed 51 51 NE 15 6680 6125 495 Blue 5
12 Midnight Thu 54 54 NE 15 7250 6667 1037 Blue 8
1 AM Thu 56 56 NE 15 7525 7142 1512 Blue 10
2 AM Thu 54 54 NE 13 7250 6667 1037 Blue 8
3 AM Thu 54 54 NE 13 7250 6667 1037 Blue 8
4 AM Thu 53 53 NE 13 7148 6394 764 Blue 7

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst