Detailed Predictions for: Laguna
Launch Altitude (f): 5630
LZ Altitude (f): 2210
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue -999 -999 - 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue -999 -999 - 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 58 58 SW 18 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 67 67 SW 20 4940 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 74 76 SW 17 7662 7107 1477 Blue 6
10 AM Tue 75 78 SW 16 8159 7469 1839 Blue 8
11 AM Tue 76 81 SW 12 9602 8129 2499 Blue 11
12 Noon Tue 77 83 SW 12 10151 8803 3173 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 77 84 SW 12 10420 9565 3935 Blue 14
2 PM Tue 76 82 SW 13 9878 8468 2838 Blue 12
3 PM Tue 77 82 SW 14 9878 8468 2838 Blue 12
4 PM Tue 76 79 SW 14 8501 7650 2020 Blue 9
5 PM Tue 75 76 SW 17 7662 7107 1477 Blue 6
6 PM Tue 73 73 SW 17 7116 5679 49 Blue 3
7 PM Tue 71 71 SW 17 6168 5630 0 Blue 1
8 PM Tue 64 64 SW 20 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 63 63 SW 20 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 62 62 SW 20 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 61 61 SW 22 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 60 60 SW 22 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 60 60 SW 22 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 59 59 SW 22 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 60 60 SW 22 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 60 60 SW 21 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 60 60 SW 18 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 60 60 SW 17 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 59 59 SW 16 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 68 68 W 10 5188 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 75 77 W 8 7844 7288 1658 Blue 7
10 AM Wed 76 79 W 7 8501 7650 2020 Blue 9
11 AM Wed 77 82 NE 0 9878 8468 2838 Blue 12
12 Noon Wed 78 84 NE 1 10420 9565 3935 Blue 14
1 PM Wed 78 84 NE 1 10420 9565 3935 Blue 14
2 PM Wed 77 83 NW 1 10151 8803 3173 Blue 13
3 PM Wed 78 82 W 3 9878 8468 2838 Blue 12
4 PM Wed 77 80 W 6 8839 7830 2200 Blue 10
5 PM Wed 75 76 W 5 7662 7107 1477 Blue 6
6 PM Wed 74 74 SW 3 7299 6155 525 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 71 71 S 2 6168 5630 0 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 64 64 E 1 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 61 61 E 3 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 60 60 E 5 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 59 59 E 5 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 58 58 E 5 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 58 58 E 5 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 57 57 E 5 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 58 58 E 3 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 58 E 5 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 58 58 E 5 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 58 58 E 6 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 57 57 E 6 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 66 66 E 8 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 73 74 E 10 7299 6155 525 Blue 4
10 AM Thu 74 77 E 12 7844 7288 1658 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 75 79 E 14 8501 7650 2020 Blue 9
12 Noon Thu 76 81 E 14 9602 8129 2499 Blue 11
1 PM Thu 76 81 E 15 9602 8129 2499 Blue 11
2 PM Thu 75 80 E 13 8839 7830 2200 Blue 10
3 PM Thu 76 79 E 13 8501 7650 2020 Blue 9
4 PM Thu 75 77 E 12 7844 7288 1658 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 74 75 E 8 7481 6686 1056 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 72 72 E 7 6708 5630 0 Blue 2
7 PM Thu 70 70 E 6 5681 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 64 64 E 6 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 62 62 E 7 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 62 62 E 7 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 60 60 E 6 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 60 60 E 5 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 60 60 SE 5 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 59 59 S 6 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 60 60 S 5 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 60 60 S 5 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 60 60 S 3 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 60 60 S 3 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 59 59 S 3 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 68 68 E 6 5188 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 74 76 E 6 7662 7107 1477 Blue 6
10 AM Fri 75 78 E 6 8159 7469 1839 Blue 8
11 AM Fri 76 80 E 8 8839 7830 2200 Blue 10
12 Noon Fri 77 82 E 8 9878 8468 2838 Blue 12
1 PM Fri 77 82 E 8 9878 8468 2838 Blue 12
2 PM Fri 77 82 E 8 9878 8468 2838 Blue 12
3 PM Fri 77 81 E 8 9602 8129 2499 Blue 11
4 PM Fri 76 78 E 8 8159 7469 1839 Blue 8
5 PM Fri 75 76 E 2 7662 7107 1477 Blue 6
6 PM Fri 74 74 E 2 7299 6155 525 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 71 71 E 2 6168 5630 0 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 65 65 NE 5 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 64 64 NE 5 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 63 63 NE 5 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 62 62 SE 3 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 61 61 SE 3 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 61 61 SE 3 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 60 60 SE 5 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 61 61 SE 5 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 61 61 SE 5 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 61 61 SE 3 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 61 61 SE 3 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 60 60 SE 3 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 69 69 E 7 5435 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 76 78 E 7 8159 7469 1839 Blue 8
10 AM Sat 77 80 E 7 8839 7830 2200 Blue 10
11 AM Sat 78 83 E 8 10151 8803 3173 Blue 13
12 Noon Sat 79 85 E 8 11087 9839 4209 Blue 15
1 PM Sat 79 85 E 8 11087 9839 4209 Blue 15
2 PM Sat 79 85 NE 5 11087 9839 4209 Blue 15
3 PM Sat 78 82 NE 5 9878 8468 2838 Blue 12
4 PM Sat 78 81 NE 5 9602 8129 2499 Blue 11
5 PM Sat 77 78 W 7 8159 7469 1839 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 75 75 W 7 7481 6686 1056 Blue 5
7 PM Sat 72 72 W 7 6708 5630 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 66 66 NW 3 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 64 64 NW 3 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 63 63 NW 3 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 62 62 S 3 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 61 61 S 3 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 61 61 S 3 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 60 60 SW 6 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 61 61 SW 6 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 61 61 SW 6 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 61 61 SW 5 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 61 61 SW 5 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 60 60 SW 5 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 68 68 SW 2 5188 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 76 78 SW 2 8159 7469 1839 Blue 8
10 AM Sun 76 79 SW 2 8501 7650 2020 Blue 9
11 AM Sun 77 82 E 1 9878 8468 2838 Blue 12
12 Noon Sun 78 84 E 1 10420 9565 3935 Blue 14
1 PM Sun 78 84 E 1 10420 9565 3935 Blue 14
2 PM Sun 78 84 NW 5 10420 9565 3935 Blue 14
3 PM Sun 78 82 NW 5 9878 8468 2838 Blue 12
4 PM Sun 77 80 NW 5 8839 7830 2200 Blue 10
5 PM Sun 76 77 W 13 7844 7288 1658 Blue 7
6 PM Sun 74 74 W 13 7299 6155 525 Blue 4
7 PM Sun 71 71 W 13 6168 5630 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 65 65 SW 9 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 63 63 SW 9 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 62 62 SW 9 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 61 61 SW 10 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 60 60 SW 10 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 60 60 SW 10 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 59 59 SW 12 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 60 60 SW 12 4928 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 60 60 SW 12 4928 5630 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst