Detailed Predictions for: Laguna
Launch Altitude (f): 5630
LZ Altitude (f): 2210
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

26 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 48 48 SW 10 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 48 48 SW 10 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 47 47 SW 9 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 50 SW 7 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 55 56 SW 7 6193 5630 0 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 56 58 SW 7 6839 5871 241 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 59 61 SW 6 8858 6820 1190 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 61 64 SW 7 9411 8842 3212 Blue 10
1 PM Tue 62 65 SW 9 9672 8978 3348 Blue 11
2 PM Tue 62 65 W 13 9672 8978 3348 Blue 11
3 PM Tue 61 63 W 14 9205 8649 3019 Blue 9
4 PM Tue 61 62 W 14 8998 7624 1994 Blue 8
5 PM Tue 60 60 SW 15 8677 6497 867 Blue 6
6 PM Tue 57 57 SW 16 6508 5630 0 Blue 3
7 PM Tue 54 54 SW 16 5556 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 51 51 SW 16 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 48 48 SW 16 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 47 47 SW 16 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 49 49 SW 17 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 48 48 SW 17 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 48 48 SW 18 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 48 48 SW 20 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 47 47 SW 20 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 47 47 SW 20 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 46 46 SW 20 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 45 45 SW 20 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 44 44 W 20 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 46 46 W 20 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 50 51 W 20 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 50 51 SW 20 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 52 54 SW 20 5556 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 53 56 W 21 6193 5630 0 Blue 2
1 PM Wed 54 57 W 22 6508 5630 0 Blue 3
2 PM Wed 54 57 W 22 6508 5630 0 Blue 3
3 PM Wed 54 56 W 23 6193 5630 0 Blue 2
4 PM Wed 53 54 W 23 5556 5630 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 52 53 W 23 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 50 50 W 24 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 48 48 W 23 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 46 46 W 23 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 44 44 W 24 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 42 42 W 24 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 44 44 W 25 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 43 43 W 25 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 43 43 W 25 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 43 43 W 25 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 42 42 W 25 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 42 42 W 25 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 42 42 W 25 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 41 41 W 24 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 40 40 W 24 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 42 42 W 23 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 46 47 W 23 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 46 48 W 23 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 48 52 W 23 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 49 54 W 23 5556 5630 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 50 55 W 24 5876 5630 0 Blue 1
2 PM Thu 50 55 W 24 5876 5630 0 Blue 1
3 PM Thu 50 54 W 25 5556 5630 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 50 52 W 26 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 49 50 W 28 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 48 48 W 26 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 46 46 W 25 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 45 45 W 24 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 43 43 W 24 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 43 43 W 24 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 44 44 W 24 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 43 43 W 24 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 43 43 W 23 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 43 43 W 23 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 43 43 W 22 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 43 43 W 22 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 42 42 W 22 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 42 42 W 22 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 41 41 W 22 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 44 44 NW 18 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 49 51 NW 18 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 50 53 NW 18 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 53 57 N 13 6508 5630 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Fri 55 60 N 13 8677 6497 867 Blue 6
1 PM Fri 56 62 N 13 8998 7624 1994 Blue 8
2 PM Fri 57 62 W 12 8998 7624 1994 Blue 8
3 PM Fri 56 60 W 12 8677 6497 867 Blue 6
4 PM Fri 55 57 W 12 6508 5630 0 Blue 3
5 PM Fri 54 55 W 14 5876 5630 0 Blue 1
6 PM Fri 52 52 W 14 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 49 49 W 14 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 46 46 NW 15 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 44 44 NW 15 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 43 43 NW 15 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 45 45 NW 10 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 44 44 NW 10 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 44 44 NW 10 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 43 43 W 15 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 43 43 W 15 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 43 43 W 15 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 42 42 NW 13 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 41 41 NW 13 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 40 40 NW 13 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 43 43 N 14 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 49 51 N 14 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 50 53 N 14 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 53 58 E 14 6839 5871 241 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 55 61 E 14 8858 6820 1190 Blue 7
1 PM Sat 56 62 E 14 8998 7624 1994 Blue 8
2 PM Sat 57 62 NE 13 8998 7624 1994 Blue 8
3 PM Sat 55 59 NE 13 7705 6185 555 Blue 5
4 PM Sat 55 57 NE 13 6508 5630 0 Blue 3
5 PM Sat 54 55 N 13 5876 5630 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sat 52 52 N 13 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 49 49 N 13 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 46 46 N 13 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 43 43 N 13 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 42 42 N 13 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 44 44 N 14 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 43 43 N 14 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 43 43 N 14 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 42 42 N 15 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 42 42 N 15 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 42 42 N 15 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 41 41 N 16 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 40 40 N 16 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 39 39 N 16 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 42 42 NE 16 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 49 51 NE 16 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 50 53 NE 16 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 54 59 NE 16 7705 6185 555 Blue 5
12 Noon Sun 55 61 NE 16 8858 6820 1190 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 57 63 NE 16 9205 8649 3019 Blue 9
2 PM Sun 58 64 NE 16 9411 8842 3212 Blue 10
3 PM Sun 56 60 NE 16 8677 6497 867 Blue 6
4 PM Sun 56 59 NE 16 7705 6185 555 Blue 5
5 PM Sun 55 56 NE 14 6193 5630 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sun 53 53 NE 14 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 50 50 NE 14 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 47 47 NE 10 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 45 45 NE 10 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 44 44 NE 10 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 46 46 NE 10 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 45 45 NE 10 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 44 44 NE 10 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 44 44 NE 10 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 44 44 NE 10 4944 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 44 44 NE 10 4944 5630 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst