Detailed Predictions for: Laguna
Launch Altitude (f): 5630
LZ Altitude (f): 2210
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

27 MAY 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 49 49 NW 12 5581 5630 0 Blue 1
6 AM Sun 50 50 NW 9 5732 5630 0 Blue 2
7 AM Sun 52 52 NW 5 6034 5630 0 Blue 4
8 AM Sun 54 56 NE 5 6349 6125 495 Blue 8
9 AM Sun 56 59 NE 5 6572 6347 717 Blue 11
10 AM Sun 58 64 NE 5 7523 6717 1087 Blue 16
11 AM Sun 60 67 NE 6 8393 7503 1873 Blue 19
12 Noon Sun 62 70 NE 6 9090 8366 2736 Blue 22
1 PM Sun 64 73 NE 6 9878 9058 3428 Blue 25
2 PM Sun 64 72 NE 3 9617 8829 3199 Blue 24
3 PM Sun 64 70 NW 2 9090 8366 2736 Blue 22
4 PM Sun 61 65 W 3 7815 6919 1289 Blue 17
5 PM Sun 58 60 SW 6 6646 6421 791 Blue 12
6 PM Sun 56 56 SW 6 6349 6125 495 Blue 8
7 PM Sun 56 56 W 6 6349 6125 495 Blue 8
8 PM Sun 56 56 W 8 6349 6125 495 Blue 8
9 PM Sun 56 56 W 8 6349 6125 495 Blue 8
10 PM Sun 57 57 W 7 6423 6199 569 Blue 9
11 PM Sun 57 57 W 7 6423 6199 569 Blue 9
12 Midnight Mon 58 58 W 6 6497 6273 643 Blue 10
1 AM Mon 58 58 W 5 6497 6273 643 Blue 10
2 AM Mon 58 58 NW 2 6497 6273 643 Blue 10
3 AM Mon 57 57 NW 2 6423 6199 569 Blue 9
4 AM Mon 57 57 N 3 6423 6199 569 Blue 9
5 AM Mon 57 57 N 2 6423 6199 569 Blue 9
6 AM Mon 58 58 NE 2 6497 6273 643 Blue 10
7 AM Mon 60 60 NE 2 6646 6421 791 Blue 12
8 AM Mon 62 64 E 5 7523 6717 1087 Blue 16
9 AM Mon 64 67 E 6 8393 7503 1873 Blue 19
10 AM Mon 65 71 E 7 9354 8618 2988 Blue 23
11 AM Mon 67 74 E 8 10131 9321 3691 Blue 26
12 Noon Mon 69 77 E 8 12728 10094 4464 Blue 29
1 PM Mon 72 80 E 8 13728 12696 7066 Blue 32
2 PM Mon 72 79 NE 7 12991 12062 6432 Blue 31
3 PM Mon 72 78 NE 7 12860 11078 5448 Blue 30
4 PM Mon 70 74 NW 6 10131 9321 3691 Blue 26
5 PM Mon 67 69 W 5 8853 8080 2450 Blue 21
6 PM Mon 66 66 W 6 8105 7212 1582 Blue 18
7 PM Mon 66 66 W 7 8105 7212 1582 Blue 18
8 PM Mon 66 66 W 8 8105 7212 1582 Blue 18
9 PM Mon 65 65 W 8 7815 6919 1289 Blue 17
10 PM Mon 64 64 W 7 7523 6717 1087 Blue 16
11 PM Mon 63 63 W 7 7229 6643 1013 Blue 15
12 Midnight Tue 63 63 NW 7 7229 6643 1013 Blue 15
1 AM Tue 64 64 NW 7 7523 6717 1087 Blue 16
2 AM Tue 64 64 NW 6 7523 6717 1087 Blue 16
3 AM Tue 63 63 NW 6 7229 6643 1013 Blue 15
4 AM Tue 62 62 N 6 6933 6569 939 Blue 14
5 AM Tue 62 62 N 6 6933 6569 939 Blue 14
6 AM Tue 63 63 N 3 7229 6643 1013 Blue 15
7 AM Tue 65 65 NE 3 7815 6919 1289 Blue 17
8 AM Tue 67 69 NE 6 8853 8080 2450 Blue 21
9 AM Tue 68 71 E 7 9354 8618 2988 Blue 23
10 AM Tue 70 75 E 8 11277 9581 3951 Blue 27
11 AM Tue 72 78 E 10 12860 11078 5448 Blue 30
12 Noon Tue 74 81 E 9 14025 12827 7197 Blue 33
1 PM Tue 76 84 E 9 14842 13947 8317 Blue 36
2 PM Tue 76 83 E 7 14571 13307 7677 Blue 35
3 PM Tue 74 79 SE 9 12991 12062 6432 Blue 31
4 PM Tue 71 75 SW 10 11277 9581 3951 Blue 27
5 PM Tue 68 70 W 12 9090 8366 2736 Blue 22
6 PM Tue 70 70 W 13 9090 8366 2736 Blue 22
7 PM Tue 72 72 W 12 9617 8829 3199 Blue 24
8 PM Tue 74 74 W 12 10131 9321 3691 Blue 26
9 PM Tue 72 72 W 12 9617 8829 3199 Blue 24
10 PM Tue 69 69 W 13 8853 8080 2450 Blue 21
11 PM Tue 66 66 W 13 8105 7212 1582 Blue 18
12 Midnight Wed 65 65 W 14 7815 6919 1289 Blue 17
1 AM Wed 64 64 W 14 7523 6717 1087 Blue 16
2 AM Wed 64 64 W 15 7523 6717 1087 Blue 16
3 AM Wed 62 62 W 14 6933 6569 939 Blue 14
4 AM Wed 61 61 NW 13 6720 6495 865 Blue 13
5 AM Wed 60 60 NW 13 6646 6421 791 Blue 12
6 AM Wed 62 62 NW 13 6933 6569 939 Blue 14
7 AM Wed 66 66 NW 13 8105 7212 1582 Blue 18
8 AM Wed 70 71 W 8 9354 8618 2988 Blue 23
9 AM Wed 71 74 W 8 10131 9321 3691 Blue 26
10 AM Wed 71 76 W 8 12269 9841 4211 Blue 28
11 AM Wed 70 77 W 8 12728 10094 4464 Blue 29
12 Noon Wed 70 78 W 8 12860 11078 5448 Blue 30
1 PM Wed 69 77 W 8 12728 10094 4464 Blue 29
2 PM Wed 69 77 W 13 12728 10094 4464 Blue 29
3 PM Wed 68 74 W 13 10131 9321 3691 Blue 26
4 PM Wed 68 72 W 13 9617 8829 3199 Blue 24
5 PM Wed 67 69 W 20 8853 8080 2450 Blue 21
6 PM Wed 66 66 W 20 8105 7212 1582 Blue 18
7 PM Wed 64 64 W 20 7523 6717 1087 Blue 16
8 PM Wed 63 63 W 21 7229 6643 1013 Blue 15
9 PM Wed 62 62 W 21 6933 6569 939 Blue 14
10 PM Wed 62 62 W 21 6933 6569 939 Blue 14
11 PM Wed 61 61 W 20 6720 6495 865 Blue 13
12 Midnight Thu 60 60 W 20 6646 6421 791 Blue 12
1 AM Thu 58 58 W 20 6497 6273 643 Blue 10
2 AM Thu 57 57 W 21 6423 6199 569 Blue 9
3 AM Thu 55 55 W 21 6275 6031 401 Blue 7
4 AM Thu 54 54 W 21 6201 5881 251 Blue 6
5 AM Thu 53 53 SW 21 6126 5731 101 Blue 5
6 AM Thu 55 55 SW 21 6275 6031 401 Blue 7
7 AM Thu 58 58 SW 21 6497 6273 643 Blue 10
8 AM Thu 60 61 SW 17 6720 6495 865 Blue 13
9 AM Thu 61 64 SW 17 7523 6717 1087 Blue 16
10 AM Thu 60 65 SW 17 7815 6919 1289 Blue 17
11 AM Thu 60 66 SW 18 8105 7212 1582 Blue 18
12 Noon Thu 59 66 SW 18 8105 7212 1582 Blue 18
1 PM Thu 59 66 SW 18 8105 7212 1582 Blue 18
2 PM Thu 58 65 SW 23 7815 6919 1289 Blue 17
3 PM Thu 57 62 SW 23 6933 6569 939 Blue 14
4 PM Thu 56 59 SW 23 6572 6347 717 Blue 11
5 PM Thu 55 57 SW 28 6423 6199 569 Blue 9
6 PM Thu 54 54 SW 28 6201 5881 251 Blue 6
7 PM Thu 52 52 SW 28 6034 5630 0 Blue 4
8 PM Thu 51 51 SW 26 5883 5630 0 Blue 3
9 PM Thu 50 50 SW 26 5732 5630 0 Blue 2
10 PM Thu 50 50 SW 26 5732 5630 0 Blue 2
11 PM Thu 50 50 SW 29 5732 5630 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Fri 50 50 SW 29 5732 5630 0 Blue 2
1 AM Fri 50 50 SW 29 5732 5630 0 Blue 2
2 AM Fri 49 49 SW 28 5581 5630 0 Blue 1
3 AM Fri 48 48 SW 28 5437 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 47 47 SW 28 5310 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 47 47 W 25 5310 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 48 48 W 25 5437 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 50 50 W 25 5732 5630 0 Blue 2
8 AM Fri 52 53 W 21 6126 5731 101 Blue 5
9 AM Fri 54 57 W 21 6423 6199 569 Blue 9
10 AM Fri 55 60 W 21 6646 6421 791 Blue 12
11 AM Fri 56 63 W 17 7229 6643 1013 Blue 15
12 Noon Fri 58 66 W 17 8105 7212 1582 Blue 18
1 PM Fri 60 68 W 17 8640 7793 2163 Blue 20
2 PM Fri 62 69 W 16 8853 8080 2450 Blue 21
3 PM Fri 64 70 W 16 9090 8366 2736 Blue 22
4 PM Fri 65 69 W 16 8853 8080 2450 Blue 21
5 PM Fri 65 67 W 15 8393 7503 1873 Blue 19
6 PM Fri 64 64 W 15 7523 6717 1087 Blue 16
7 PM Fri 62 62 W 15 6933 6569 939 Blue 14
8 PM Fri 60 60 NW 10 6646 6421 791 Blue 12
9 PM Fri 60 60 NW 10 6646 6421 791 Blue 12
10 PM Fri 60 60 NW 10 6646 6421 791 Blue 12
11 PM Fri 60 60 N 7 6646 6421 791 Blue 12
12 Midnight Sat 58 58 N 7 6497 6273 643 Blue 10
1 AM Sat 55 55 N 7 6275 6031 401 Blue 7
2 AM Sat 53 53 NW 6 6126 5731 101 Blue 5
3 AM Sat 52 52 NW 6 6034 5630 0 Blue 4
4 AM Sat 52 52 NW 6 6034 5630 0 Blue 4

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst