Detailed Predictions for: Laguna
Launch Altitude (f): 5630
LZ Altitude (f): 2210
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

25 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 41 41 SW 8 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 42 42 SW 8 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 45 45 S 7 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 48 49 S 5 5163 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 52 55 S 5 8386 7198 1568 Blue 5
10 AM Sat 54 59 S 5 9124 8467 2837 Blue 8
11 AM Sat 54 60 S 6 9379 8590 2960 Blue 9
12 Noon Sat 54 61 SW 7 9632 8839 3209 Blue 10
1 PM Sat 53 60 SW 8 9379 8590 2960 Blue 9
2 PM Sat 51 57 W 14 8611 8294 2664 Blue 7
3 PM Sat 50 55 W 14 8386 7198 1568 Blue 5
4 PM Sat 49 52 W 15 7247 5630 0 Blue 2
5 PM Sat 48 49 SW 17 5163 5630 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 47 47 SW 17 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 46 46 SW 17 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 45 45 SW 18 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 44 44 SW 18 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 43 43 SW 18 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 42 42 SW 20 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 41 41 SW 21 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 40 40 SW 21 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 38 38 SW 23 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 37 37 SW 24 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 37 37 SW 24 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 36 36 SW 26 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 36 36 SW 29 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 36 36 SW 30 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 36 37 SW 31 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 39 41 SW 32 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 41 44 SW 33 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 42 44 SW 35 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 42 44 SW 36 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 41 43 SW 36 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 40 42 SW 37 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 39 41 SW 37 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 38 39 SW 37 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 37 38 SW 37 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 36 36 SW 38 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 36 36 SW 39 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 35 35 SW 39 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 35 35 SW 39 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 35 35 W 39 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 35 35 W 39 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 34 34 W 39 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 33 33 W 39 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 32 32 W 39 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 31 31 W 38 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 30 30 W 36 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 30 30 W 35 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 30 30 W 32 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 31 31 W 30 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 32 33 W 29 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 34 37 W 28 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 36 40 W 28 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 38 43 W 28 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 40 46 W 26 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 41 47 W 26 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 42 47 W 26 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 42 46 W 26 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 42 45 W 26 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 42 44 W 26 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 42 42 W 23 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 43 43 W 18 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 44 44 NW 15 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 38 38 NW 15 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 40 40 NW 15 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 41 41 NW 17 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 42 42 NW 18 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 43 43 NW 20 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 43 43 NW 20 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 42 42 NW 18 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 41 41 NW 17 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 41 41 NW 16 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 42 42 NW 16 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 45 45 NW 16 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 47 48 N 10 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 49 52 N 10 7247 5630 0 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 50 55 N 10 8386 7198 1568 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 52 59 NE 10 9124 8467 2837 Blue 8
12 Noon Tue 54 62 NE 10 9971 9093 3463 Blue 11
1 PM Tue 56 64 NE 10 11224 9597 3967 Blue 13
2 PM Tue 58 65 NE 10 11825 9912 4282 Blue 14
3 PM Tue 58 64 NE 10 11224 9597 3967 Blue 13
4 PM Tue 57 61 NE 10 9632 8839 3209 Blue 10
5 PM Tue 57 59 N 8 9124 8467 2837 Blue 8
6 PM Tue 57 57 N 8 8611 8294 2664 Blue 7
7 PM Tue 58 58 N 8 8868 8378 2748 Blue 7
8 PM Tue 58 58 NW 12 8868 8378 2748 Blue 7
9 PM Tue 58 58 NW 12 8868 8378 2748 Blue 7
10 PM Tue 58 58 NW 12 8868 8378 2748 Blue 7
11 PM Tue 58 58 NW 12 8868 8378 2748 Blue 7
12 Midnight Wed 58 58 NW 12 8868 8378 2748 Blue 7
1 AM Wed 58 58 NW 12 8868 8378 2748 Blue 7
2 AM Wed 58 58 N 14 8868 8378 2748 Blue 7
3 AM Wed 54 54 N 14 8302 5839 209 Blue 4
4 AM Wed 47 47 N 14 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 44 44 N 8 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 45 45 N 8 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 48 48 N 8 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 51 52 NE 7 7247 5630 0 Blue 2
9 AM Wed 54 57 NE 7 8611 8294 2664 Blue 7
10 AM Wed 56 61 NE 7 9632 8839 3209 Blue 10
11 AM Wed 59 64 E 10 11224 9597 3967 Blue 13
12 Noon Wed 62 68 E 10 13404 11701 6071 Blue 17
1 PM Wed 64 70 E 10 14089 12821 7191 Blue 19
2 PM Wed 65 70 NE 7 14089 12821 7191 Blue 19
3 PM Wed 64 68 NE 7 13404 11701 6071 Blue 17
4 PM Wed 61 64 NE 7 11224 9597 3967 Blue 13
5 PM Wed 59 60 W 10 9379 8590 2960 Blue 9
6 PM Wed 58 58 W 10 8868 8378 2748 Blue 7
7 PM Wed 59 59 W 10 9124 8467 2837 Blue 8
8 PM Wed 60 60 NW 12 9379 8590 2960 Blue 9
9 PM Wed 60 60 NW 12 9379 8590 2960 Blue 9
10 PM Wed 59 59 NW 12 9124 8467 2837 Blue 8
11 PM Wed 58 58 NW 8 8868 8378 2748 Blue 7
12 Midnight Thu 55 55 NW 8 8386 7198 1568 Blue 5
1 AM Thu 53 53 NW 8 8045 5630 0 Blue 3
2 AM Thu 50 50 N 6 5559 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 48 48 N 6 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 47 47 N 6 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 46 46 N 7 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 46 46 N 7 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 48 48 N 7 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 49 50 NE 8 5559 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 52 55 NE 8 8386 7198 1568 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 55 60 NE 8 9379 8590 2960 Blue 9
11 AM Thu 58 63 E 10 10596 9346 3716 Blue 12
12 Noon Thu 62 68 E 10 13404 11701 6071 Blue 17
1 PM Thu 64 70 E 10 14089 12821 7191 Blue 19
2 PM Thu 65 71 E 10 14425 13311 7681 Blue 20
3 PM Thu 62 67 E 10 12958 11107 5477 Blue 16
4 PM Thu 57 60 E 10 9379 8590 2960 Blue 9
5 PM Thu 53 54 W 10 8302 5839 209 Blue 4
6 PM Thu 52 52 W 10 7247 5630 0 Blue 2
7 PM Thu 54 54 W 10 8302 5839 209 Blue 4
8 PM Thu 56 56 NW 12 8479 7980 2350 Blue 6
9 PM Thu 55 55 NW 12 8386 7198 1568 Blue 5
10 PM Thu 54 54 NW 12 8302 5839 209 Blue 4
11 PM Thu 52 52 NW 9 7247 5630 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Fri 50 50 NW 9 5559 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 49 49 NW 9 5163 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 48 48 NW 9 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 47 47 NW 9 4869 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 46 46 NW 9 4869 5630 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst