Detailed Predictions for: Laguna
Launch Altitude (f): 5630
LZ Altitude (f): 2210
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

22 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 63 63 W 7 5322 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 65 65 W 6 5322 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 67 67 W 6 5322 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 69 70 N 3 5344 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 72 74 N 2 6162 5630 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sun 74 78 N 3 8468 6863 1233 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 77 83 NE 6 10079 9182 3552 Blue 11
12 Noon Sun 80 87 NE 6 12891 10313 4683 White 15
1 PM Sun 82 89 NE 3 13318 11248 5618 White 17
2 PM Sun 82 88 NW 3 13104 10586 4956 White 16
3 PM Sun 82 87 NW 5 12891 10313 4683 White 15
4 PM Sun 78 81 W 5 9383 8430 2800 Blue 9
5 PM Sun 74 76 W 7 7171 5793 163 Blue 4
6 PM Sun 71 72 W 8 5556 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 70 70 W 8 5344 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 69 69 W 9 5322 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 68 68 W 9 5322 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 67 67 W 9 5322 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 66 66 W 10 5322 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 66 66 W 10 5322 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 67 67 W 10 5322 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 68 68 W 10 5322 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 68 68 W 9 5322 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 68 68 NW 8 5322 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 68 68 N 6 5322 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 69 69 N 5 5322 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 71 71 N 5 5450 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 73 74 E 5 6162 5630 0 Blue 2
9 AM Mon 76 79 E 5 8865 7154 1524 Blue 7
10 AM Mon 79 83 E 6 10079 9182 3552 Blue 11
11 AM Mon 82 88 E 9 13104 10586 4956 White 16
12 Noon Mon 86 93 E 8 14162 14162 8532 White 21
1 PM Mon 89 96 E 8 14779 14779 9149 White 24
2 PM Mon 89 96 NE 2 14779 14779 9149 White 24
3 PM Mon 87 92 W 2 13955 13955 8325 White 20
4 PM Mon 82 86 W 3 11525 10039 4409 Blue 14
5 PM Mon 78 80 W 12 9204 7735 2105 Blue 8
6 PM Mon 76 77 W 12 7789 6152 522 Blue 5
7 PM Mon 76 76 W 12 7171 5793 163 Blue 4
8 PM Mon 76 76 W 13 7171 5793 163 Blue 4
9 PM Mon 75 75 W 13 6877 5630 0 Blue 3
10 PM Mon 73 73 W 13 5797 5630 0 Blue 1
11 PM Mon 72 72 W 12 5556 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 72 72 W 12 5556 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 73 73 W 12 5797 5630 0 Blue 1
2 AM Tue 74 74 W 10 6162 5630 0 Blue 2
3 AM Tue 73 73 W 9 5797 5630 0 Blue 1
4 AM Tue 72 72 W 9 5556 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 71 71 NW 8 5450 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 72 72 NW 7 5556 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 75 75 NW 7 6877 5630 0 Blue 3
8 AM Tue 78 79 NE 3 8865 7154 1524 Blue 7
9 AM Tue 83 86 E 3 11525 10039 4409 Blue 14
10 AM Tue 87 92 E 5 13955 13955 8325 White 20
11 AM Tue 91 97 E 7 14984 14984 9354 White 25
12 Noon Tue 93 100 E 5 15598 15598 9968 White 28
1 PM Tue 92 99 S 1 15393 15393 9763 White 27
2 PM Tue 92 99 W 8 15393 15393 9763 White 27
3 PM Tue 88 93 W 8 14162 14162 8532 White 21
4 PM Tue 84 88 W 10 13104 10586 4956 White 16
5 PM Tue 82 84 W 15 10356 9360 3730 Blue 12
6 PM Tue 81 82 W 15 9740 8823 3193 Blue 10
7 PM Tue 82 82 W 15 9740 8823 3193 Blue 10
8 PM Tue 83 83 W 15 10079 9182 3552 Blue 11
9 PM Tue 84 84 W 16 10356 9360 3730 Blue 12
10 PM Tue 84 84 W 17 10356 9360 3730 Blue 12
11 PM Tue 84 84 W 17 10356 9360 3730 Blue 12
12 Midnight Wed 82 82 W 17 9740 8823 3193 Blue 10
1 AM Wed 80 80 W 15 9204 7735 2105 Blue 8
2 AM Wed 78 78 W 14 8468 6863 1233 Blue 6
3 AM Wed 77 77 W 12 7789 6152 522 Blue 5
4 AM Wed 76 76 W 9 7171 5793 163 Blue 4
5 AM Wed 76 76 W 8 7171 5793 163 Blue 4
6 AM Wed 76 76 W 8 7171 5793 163 Blue 4
7 AM Wed 77 77 W 8 7789 6152 522 Blue 5
8 AM Wed 79 80 NE 5 9204 7735 2105 Blue 8
9 AM Wed 82 85 NE 5 10630 9673 4043 Blue 13
10 AM Wed 87 91 NE 5 13743 13743 8113 White 19
11 AM Wed 90 96 S 3 14779 14779 9149 White 24
12 Noon Wed 93 100 S 3 15598 15598 9968 White 28
1 PM Wed 93 100 S 3 15598 15598 9968 White 28
2 PM Wed 92 99 W 8 15393 15393 9763 White 27
3 PM Wed 90 95 W 8 14573 14573 8943 White 23
4 PM Wed 88 92 W 8 13955 13955 8325 White 20
5 PM Wed 86 88 W 16 13104 10586 4956 White 16
6 PM Wed 84 85 W 16 10630 9673 4043 Blue 13
7 PM Wed 84 84 W 16 10356 9360 3730 Blue 12
8 PM Wed 84 84 W 16 10356 9360 3730 Blue 12
9 PM Wed 84 84 W 16 10356 9360 3730 Blue 12
10 PM Wed 84 84 W 16 10356 9360 3730 Blue 12
11 PM Wed 84 84 W 15 10356 9360 3730 Blue 12
12 Midnight Thu 83 83 W 15 10079 9182 3552 Blue 11
1 AM Thu 82 82 W 15 9740 8823 3193 Blue 10
2 AM Thu 81 81 W 16 9383 8430 2800 Blue 9
3 AM Thu 79 79 W 16 8865 7154 1524 Blue 7
4 AM Thu 78 78 W 16 8468 6863 1233 Blue 6
5 AM Thu 77 77 NW 7 7789 6152 522 Blue 5
6 AM Thu 77 77 NW 7 7789 6152 522 Blue 5
7 AM Thu 78 78 NW 7 8468 6863 1233 Blue 6
8 AM Thu 80 81 N 8 9383 8430 2800 Blue 9
9 AM Thu 82 85 N 8 10630 9673 4043 Blue 13
10 AM Thu 84 88 N 8 13104 10586 4956 White 16
11 AM Thu 86 92 NE 1 13955 13955 8325 White 20
12 Noon Thu 88 95 NE 1 14573 14573 8943 White 23
1 PM Thu 88 95 NE 1 14573 14573 8943 White 23
2 PM Thu 87 94 W 8 14368 14368 8738 White 22
3 PM Thu 85 91 W 8 13743 13743 8113 White 19
4 PM Thu 83 87 W 8 12891 10313 4683 White 15
5 PM Thu 81 83 W 14 10079 9182 3552 Blue 11
6 PM Thu 81 82 W 14 9740 8823 3193 Blue 10
7 PM Thu 81 81 W 14 9383 8430 2800 Blue 9
8 PM Thu 80 80 W 16 9204 7735 2105 Blue 8
9 PM Thu 79 79 W 16 8865 7154 1524 Blue 7
10 PM Thu 78 78 W 16 8468 6863 1233 Blue 6
11 PM Thu 76 76 W 15 7171 5793 163 Blue 4
12 Midnight Fri 76 76 W 15 7171 5793 163 Blue 4
1 AM Fri 75 75 W 15 6877 5630 0 Blue 3
2 AM Fri 74 74 W 12 6162 5630 0 Blue 2
3 AM Fri 72 72 W 12 5556 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 70 70 W 12 5344 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 68 68 N 5 5322 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 68 68 N 5 5322 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 69 69 N 5 5322 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 71 72 E 5 5556 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 72 74 E 5 6162 5630 0 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 74 78 E 5 8468 6863 1233 Blue 6
11 AM Fri 76 80 E 5 9204 7735 2105 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 80 85 E 5 10630 9673 4043 Blue 13
1 PM Fri 84 89 E 5 13318 11248 5618 White 17
2 PM Fri 86 91 NE 3 13743 13743 8113 White 19
3 PM Fri 86 90 NE 3 13530 12511 6881 White 18
4 PM Fri 85 88 NE 3 13104 10586 4956 White 16
5 PM Fri 83 84 W 3 10356 9360 3730 Blue 12
6 PM Fri 81 81 W 3 9383 8430 2800 Blue 9
7 PM Fri 80 80 W 3 9204 7735 2105 Blue 8
8 PM Fri 78 78 W 10 8468 6863 1233 Blue 6
9 PM Fri 78 78 W 10 8468 6863 1233 Blue 6
10 PM Fri 77 77 W 10 7789 6152 522 Blue 5
11 PM Fri 76 76 W 7 7171 5793 163 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sat 75 75 W 7 6877 5630 0 Blue 3
1 AM Sat 73 73 W 7 5797 5630 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sat 71 71 N 3 5450 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 69 69 N 3 5322 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 67 67 N 3 5322 5630 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst