Detailed Predictions for: Laguna
Launch Altitude (f): 5630
LZ Altitude (f): 2210
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Thu 41 41 SW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 42 42 SW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 41 41 SW 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 41 41 SW 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 43 43 SW 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 46 46 W 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 47 47 SW 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 48 48 SW 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 49 49 SW 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 48 48 SW 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 48 48 SW 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 49 49 SW 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 48 48 SW 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 43 43 W 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 40 40 W 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 40 40 W 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 40 40 W 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 40 40 W 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 40 40 W 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 40 40 W 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 39 39 W 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 39 39 SW 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 39 39 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 38 38 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 38 38 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 39 39 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 38 38 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 38 38 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 42 42 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 48 48 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 50 51 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 52 54 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 53 55 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 52 54 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 53 54 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 52 52 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 52 52 E 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 45 45 E 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 42 42 E 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 42 42 E 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 42 42 NE 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 41 41 NE 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 42 42 NE 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 41 41 NE 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 40 40 E 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 40 40 NE 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 40 40 E 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 40 40 E 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 39 39 E 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 40 40 E 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 40 40 NE 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 39 39 NE 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 44 44 E 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 51 52 E 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 53 55 E 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 55 57 E 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 57 60 E 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 56 58 NE 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 57 58 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 56 57 E 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 56 56 E 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 49 49 NE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 46 46 NE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 46 46 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 46 46 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 45 45 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 46 46 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 45 45 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 44 44 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 44 44 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 44 44 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 44 44 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 43 43 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 44 44 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 44 44 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 43 43 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 49 49 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 57 57 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 60 61 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 62 63 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 64 65 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 64 65 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 64 65 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 63 63 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 62 62 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 52 52 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 47 47 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 47 47 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 47 47 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 47 47 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 48 48 W 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 46 46 W 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 44 44 W 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 44 44 W 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 45 45 W 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 44 44 W 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 43 43 W 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 44 44 W 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 44 44 W 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 43 43 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 45 45 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 48 48 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 49 51 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 50 52 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 51 54 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 51 53 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 51 53 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 50 51 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 49 49 E 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 42 42 E 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 38 38 E 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 38 38 NE 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 37 37 NE 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 37 37 NE 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 38 38 NE 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 36 36 NE 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 35 35 NE 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 35 35 NE 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 35 35 NE 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 35 35 NE 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 34 34 NE 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 35 35 NE 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 35 35 NE 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 34 34 NE 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 38 38 NE 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 42 43 NE 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 44 46 NE 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 46 49 NE 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 47 50 NE 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 47 49 E 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 47 49 E 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 46 47 E 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 46 46 NE 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 40 40 NE 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 38 38 NE 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 38 38 E 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 37 37 E 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 37 37 E 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 38 38 E 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 37 37 E 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 36 36 E 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 36 36 E 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 36 36 E 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 35 35 E 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst