Detailed Predictions for: Laguna
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.9339606586, -116.481859729, 5630
LZ Altitude (f): 2210
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Fri 45 45 ENE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 45 45 NE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 44 44 ENE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 43 43 ENE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 43 43 ENE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 42 42 E 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 44 44 ENE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 45 45 ENE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 45 46 ENE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 50 52 ENE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 54 57 ENE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 58 63 ENE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 59 64 ESE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 61 65 S 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 63 66 WSW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 62 64 WSW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 61 61 W 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 58 58 W 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 58 58 W 7 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 56 56 W 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 55 55 WSW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 53 53 W 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 52 52 W 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 48 48 W 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 48 48 W 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 45 45 W 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 42 42 W 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 41 41 W 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 41 41 W 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 40 40 W 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 41 41 W 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 41 41 W 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 43 44 WSW 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 47 49 W 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 52 56 W 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 57 62 W 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 58 63 W 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 59 63 W 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 61 64 WNW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 59 61 W 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 59 59 W 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 58 58 W 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 55 55 SW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 52 52 S 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 51 51 NNW 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 48 48 SE 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 48 48 ESE 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 49 49 E 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 48 48 E 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 47 47 ENE 7 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 47 47 ENE 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 45 45 ENE 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 44 44 ENE 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 45 45 ENE 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 42 42 ENE 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 41 41 ENE 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 42 43 ENE 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 43 45 ENE 10 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 45 49 ENE 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 47 52 ENE 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 48 53 ENE 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 49 53 ENE 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 50 53 ENE 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 49 51 ENE 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 49 49 ENE 11 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 50 50 ENE 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 47 47 ENE 11 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 45 45 ENE 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 45 45 ENE 10 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 43 43 ENE 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 43 43 ENE 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 44 44 ENE 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst