Detailed Predictions for: Laguna
Launch Altitude (f): 5630
LZ Altitude (f): 2210
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

17 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 50 50 E 5 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 51 51 E 5 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 51 51 E 5 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 51 51 E 6 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 52 52 E 6 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 54 54 E 7 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 55 56 E 8 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 56 58 E 8 5844 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 56 58 E 9 5844 5630 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 57 59 E 8 6257 5630 0 Blue 1
2 PM Wed 56 57 E 8 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 56 56 E 7 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 55 55 NE 6 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 52 52 NE 6 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 51 51 NE 6 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 51 51 E 6 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 51 51 E 6 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 51 51 E 7 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 52 52 E 7 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 52 52 E 7 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 51 51 E 6 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 52 52 E 5 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 52 52 E 5 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 51 51 SE 5 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 52 52 SE 3 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 53 53 SE 2 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 52 52 SE 2 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 52 52 E 2 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 54 54 E 2 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 57 58 SE 2 5844 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 58 59 SE 2 6257 5630 0 Blue 1
11 AM Thu 59 61 SE 2 6966 5827 197 Blue 3
12 Noon Thu 60 62 S 1 7579 6252 622 Blue 4
1 PM Thu 61 63 SW 1 8095 6435 805 Blue 5
2 PM Thu 60 61 W 2 6966 5827 197 Blue 3
3 PM Thu 59 59 W 2 6257 5630 0 Blue 1
4 PM Thu 56 56 W 6 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 49 49 SW 7 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 46 46 SW 8 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 46 46 SW 14 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 46 46 SW 14 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 46 46 SW 15 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 46 46 SW 21 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 46 46 SW 18 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 46 46 SW 20 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 46 46 SW 22 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 46 46 SW 22 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 46 46 SW 24 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 46 46 SW 24 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 46 46 SW 24 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 46 46 SW 24 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 46 46 SW 26 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 47 47 W 28 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 47 47 W 30 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 48 49 W 31 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 48 49 W 31 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 48 49 W 31 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 48 49 W 32 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 47 48 W 32 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 46 46 W 33 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 44 44 W 36 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 38 38 W 36 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 36 36 W 36 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 36 36 W 36 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 36 36 W 35 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 36 36 W 35 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 36 36 W 35 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 36 36 W 35 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 36 36 W 33 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 36 36 W 33 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 36 36 W 30 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 36 36 W 30 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 36 36 W 20 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 36 36 W 20 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 36 36 W 20 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 36 36 NW 16 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 37 37 NW 16 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 38 38 NW 16 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 38 40 NW 14 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 38 40 NW 14 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 39 41 NW 14 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 39 41 W 13 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 39 40 W 13 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 39 39 W 13 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 38 38 W 15 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 37 37 W 15 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 36 36 W 15 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 36 36 N 9 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 36 36 N 9 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 36 36 N 9 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 37 37 NE 3 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 37 37 NE 3 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 36 36 NE 3 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 37 37 NE 5 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 37 37 NE 5 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 36 36 NE 5 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 37 37 E 5 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 37 37 E 5 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 37 37 E 5 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 37 37 E 5 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 38 38 E 5 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 41 42 E 5 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 42 43 E 5 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 42 44 E 5 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 43 45 E 5 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 44 46 SE 2 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 44 45 SE 2 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 44 44 SE 2 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 43 43 W 2 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 42 42 W 2 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 41 41 W 2 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 41 41 W 6 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 41 41 W 6 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 41 41 W 6 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 42 42 W 7 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 42 42 W 7 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 41 41 W 7 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 42 42 NW 9 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 42 42 NW 9 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 41 41 NW 9 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 42 42 NW 9 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 43 43 NW 9 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 42 42 NW 9 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 42 42 NW 12 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 44 44 NW 12 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 47 47 NW 12 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 48 49 N 9 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 49 51 N 9 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 50 52 N 9 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 51 52 NW 13 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 51 52 NW 13 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 50 50 NW 13 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 49 49 NW 13 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 46 46 NW 13 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 45 45 NW 13 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 45 45 NW 17 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 45 45 NW 17 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 45 45 NW 17 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 46 46 NW 14 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 46 46 NW 14 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 45 45 NW 14 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 46 46 NW 17 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 46 46 NW 17 5095 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 45 45 NW 17 5095 5630 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst