Detailed Predictions for: Laguna
Launch Altitude (f): 5630
LZ Altitude (f): 2210
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Tue 41 41 E 24 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 40 40 E 24 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 40 40 E 24 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 40 40 E 24 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 40 40 E 24 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 41 42 E 24 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 43 45 E 25 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 44 47 E 25 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 45 48 E 25 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 46 48 E 24 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 47 48 E 23 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 47 47 E 22 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 48 48 E 20 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 48 48 E 18 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 48 48 E 18 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 41 41 E 17 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 41 41 E 17 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 41 41 E 17 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 41 41 E 17 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 42 42 E 17 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 42 42 E 17 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 42 42 E 17 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 42 42 E 17 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 42 42 E 17 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 41 41 E 17 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 41 41 E 17 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 42 42 E 17 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 42 42 E 17 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 43 43 E 17 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 44 45 E 18 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 46 48 E 18 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 47 49 E 18 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 49 51 E 18 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 50 52 E 17 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 51 52 E 16 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 52 52 E 15 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 52 52 E 14 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 51 51 E 14 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 52 52 E 14 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 52 52 E 14 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 51 51 E 14 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 50 50 E 14 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 49 49 E 14 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 47 47 E 13 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 46 46 E 13 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 44 44 E 13 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 42 42 E 13 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 41 41 E 13 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 41 41 E 14 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 42 42 E 14 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 44 44 E 14 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 46 46 E 15 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 48 48 E 15 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 50 51 E 15 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 52 54 E 15 5723 5630 0 Blue 1
11 AM Thu 54 57 E 14 5962 5722 92 Blue 4
12 Noon Thu 56 59 E 13 6121 5881 251 Blue 6
1 PM Thu 57 60 E 12 6201 5960 330 Blue 7
2 PM Thu 58 60 E 10 6201 5960 330 Blue 7
3 PM Thu 57 58 E 9 6042 5801 171 Blue 5
4 PM Thu 57 57 E 8 5962 5722 92 Blue 4
5 PM Thu 55 55 E 7 5802 5630 0 Blue 2
6 PM Thu 53 53 NE 7 5548 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 51 51 NE 6 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 51 51 NE 6 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 51 51 NE 5 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 52 52 NE 5 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 51 51 NE 5 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 50 50 NE 3 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 48 48 NE 3 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 45 45 NE 3 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 43 43 NE 5 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 43 43 NE 5 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 45 45 NE 5 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 48 48 NE 5 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 51 51 N 3 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 52 52 N 3 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 53 54 N 3 5723 5630 0 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 54 56 N 5 5882 5630 0 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 56 58 N 5 6042 5801 171 Blue 5
12 Noon Fri 57 59 N 5 6121 5881 251 Blue 6
1 PM Fri 58 60 N 5 6201 5960 330 Blue 7
2 PM Fri 57 58 N 5 6042 5801 171 Blue 5
3 PM Fri 55 55 N 5 5802 5630 0 Blue 2
4 PM Fri 53 53 W 8 5548 5630 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 53 53 W 8 5548 5630 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 54 54 W 8 5723 5630 0 Blue 1
7 PM Fri 54 54 NW 7 5723 5630 0 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 54 54 NW 7 5723 5630 0 Blue 1
9 PM Fri 53 53 NW 7 5548 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 52 52 NW 8 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 51 51 NW 8 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 49 49 NW 8 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 48 48 NW 8 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 46 46 NW 8 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 45 45 NW 8 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 45 45 NW 10 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 46 46 NW 10 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 47 47 NW 10 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 48 48 N 7 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 50 50 N 7 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 52 53 N 7 5548 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 54 56 NE 6 5882 5630 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 56 58 NE 6 6042 5801 171 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 58 60 NE 6 6201 5960 330 Blue 7
1 PM Sat 58 60 NE 6 6201 5960 330 Blue 7
2 PM Sat 57 58 NE 6 6042 5801 171 Blue 5
3 PM Sat 56 56 NE 6 5882 5630 0 Blue 3
4 PM Sat 55 55 NW 6 5802 5630 0 Blue 2
5 PM Sat 54 54 NW 6 5723 5630 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sat 54 54 NW 6 5723 5630 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sat 53 53 N 5 5548 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 52 52 N 5 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 51 51 N 5 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 51 51 N 6 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 51 51 N 6 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 51 51 N 6 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 50 50 NE 6 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 50 50 NE 6 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 49 49 NE 6 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 47 47 NE 2 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 46 46 NE 2 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 44 44 NE 2 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 43 43 E 7 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 43 43 E 7 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 44 45 E 7 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 45 47 E 9 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 47 49 E 9 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 48 50 E 9 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 50 52 E 10 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 51 52 E 10 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 52 52 E 10 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 52 52 E 8 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 52 52 E 8 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 52 52 E 8 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 51 51 E 7 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 50 50 E 7 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 48 48 E 7 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 47 47 E 7 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 46 46 E 7 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 46 46 E 7 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 46 46 E 8 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 45 45 E 8 5180 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 45 45 E 8 5180 5630 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst