Detailed Predictions for: Laguna
Launch Altitude (f): 5630
LZ Altitude (f): 2210
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

16 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 61 61 SW 18 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 62 62 SW 18 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 65 65 SW 18 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 68 69 SW 17 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 71 74 SW 16 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 74 79 SW 16 7323 6043 413 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 78 85 SW 16 9276 8031 2401 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 81 89 SW 17 11223 9739 4109 Blue 11
1 PM Tue 82 90 SW 18 11402 10237 4607 Blue 12
2 PM Tue 82 90 W 21 11402 10237 4607 Blue 12
3 PM Tue 80 86 W 23 9809 8270 2640 Blue 8
4 PM Tue 76 80 W 23 7567 6660 1030 Blue 3
5 PM Tue 73 75 W 25 5402 5630 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 71 72 SW 24 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 70 70 SW 23 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 69 69 SW 22 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 67 67 SW 22 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 65 65 SW 22 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 64 64 SW 22 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 62 62 SW 22 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 62 62 SW 22 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 61 61 SW 22 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 60 60 SW 22 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 58 58 SW 21 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 58 58 SW 18 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 60 60 SW 16 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 64 64 SW 14 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 68 69 SW 13 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 71 74 SW 14 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 74 79 SW 15 7323 6043 413 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 76 83 SW 16 8292 7550 1920 Blue 6
12 Noon Wed 78 86 SW 17 9809 8270 2640 Blue 8
1 PM Wed 78 86 SW 18 9809 8270 2640 Blue 8
2 PM Wed 78 86 SW 20 9809 8270 2640 Blue 8
3 PM Wed 76 82 SW 21 8051 7308 1678 Blue 5
4 PM Wed 72 76 SW 21 6057 5630 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 69 71 SW 22 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 66 67 SW 22 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 65 65 SW 22 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 64 64 SW 22 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 62 62 SW 22 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 61 61 SW 21 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 60 60 SW 21 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 59 59 SW 20 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 58 58 SW 20 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 58 58 SW 20 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 57 57 SW 20 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 56 56 SW 18 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 56 56 SW 18 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 58 58 SW 16 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 60 60 SW 14 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 62 63 SW 13 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 65 68 SW 14 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 67 72 SW 15 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 69 74 SW 16 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 72 78 SW 17 7078 5630 0 Blue 1
1 PM Thu 74 81 SW 17 7809 7065 1435 Blue 4
2 PM Thu 76 82 SW 17 8051 7308 1678 Blue 5
3 PM Thu 75 80 SW 18 7567 6660 1030 Blue 3
4 PM Thu 75 79 SW 20 7323 6043 413 Blue 2
5 PM Thu 73 75 SW 20 5402 5630 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 70 71 SW 20 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 66 66 SW 21 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 64 64 SW 21 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 62 62 SW 21 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 62 62 SW 21 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 62 62 SW 20 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 61 61 SW 20 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 60 60 SW 20 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 58 58 SW 18 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 56 56 SW 18 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 55 55 SW 20 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 56 56 SW 20 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 62 62 SW 20 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 70 70 SW 20 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 74 75 SW 17 5402 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 75 78 SW 17 7078 5630 0 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 71 76 SW 17 6057 5630 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 64 71 SW 17 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 64 72 SW 17 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 67 76 SW 17 6057 5630 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 71 79 W 20 7323 6043 413 Blue 2
3 PM Fri 73 80 W 20 7567 6660 1030 Blue 3
4 PM Fri 72 77 W 20 6684 5630 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 69 72 W 22 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 64 65 W 22 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 59 59 W 22 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 55 55 W 18 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 56 56 W 18 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 59 59 W 18 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 62 62 W 17 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 65 65 W 17 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 65 65 W 17 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 62 62 W 17 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 58 58 W 17 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 54 54 W 17 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 55 55 W 16 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 58 58 W 16 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 62 62 W 16 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 66 67 W 13 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 69 72 W 13 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 70 75 W 13 5402 5630 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 70 76 W 8 6057 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 70 78 W 8 7078 5630 0 Blue 1
1 PM Sat 70 78 W 8 7078 5630 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sat 71 78 W 15 7078 5630 0 Blue 1
3 PM Sat 73 79 W 15 7323 6043 413 Blue 2
4 PM Sat 75 79 W 15 7323 6043 413 Blue 2
5 PM Sat 77 79 SW 14 7323 6043 413 Blue 2
6 PM Sat 76 77 SW 14 6684 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 76 76 SW 14 6057 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 74 74 S 13 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 72 72 S 13 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 71 71 S 13 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 70 70 SW 14 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 68 68 SW 14 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 67 67 SW 14 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 65 65 S 14 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 62 62 S 14 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 60 60 S 14 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 60 60 S 12 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 61 61 S 12 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 63 63 S 12 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 65 66 SE 8 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 67 70 SE 8 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 68 73 SE 8 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 69 74 E 13 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 71 76 E 13 6057 5630 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 73 79 E 13 7323 6043 413 Blue 2
2 PM Sun 75 80 E 14 7567 6660 1030 Blue 3
3 PM Sun 78 82 E 14 8051 7308 1678 Blue 5
4 PM Sun 80 83 E 14 8292 7550 1920 Blue 6
5 PM Sun 79 81 E 12 7809 7065 1435 Blue 4
6 PM Sun 79 79 E 12 7323 6043 413 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 77 77 E 12 6684 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 75 75 N 8 5402 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 74 74 N 8 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 74 74 N 8 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 74 74 NW 9 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 73 73 NW 9 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 72 72 NW 9 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 69 69 N 7 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 67 67 N 7 5335 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 64 64 N 7 5335 5630 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst