Detailed Predictions for: Laguna
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.9339606586, -116.481859729, 5630
LZ Altitude (f): 2210
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

16 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 62 62 SW 16 26 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 62 62 SW 17 27 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 61 61 SW 17 26 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 61 61 SW 17 26 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 60 60 SW 16 26 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 60 60 SW 16 26 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 61 61 SW 16 26 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 62 62 SW 16 25 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 67 67 SW 12 21 5054 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 74 76 SW 11 19 8469 7390 1760 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 74 78 SW 11 20 9154 8091 2461 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 75 80 SW 11 19 9827 8777 3147 Blue 9
12 Noon Thu 76 83 SW 12 20 11752 9780 4150 Blue 12
1 PM Thu 76 83 SW 13 23 11752 9780 4150 Blue 12
2 PM Thu 77 83 SW 14 24 11752 9780 4150 Blue 12
3 PM Thu 76 81 SW 16 26 10410 9114 3484 Blue 10
4 PM Thu 76 79 SW 17 27 9492 8435 2805 Blue 8
5 PM Thu 75 76 SW 17 27 8469 7390 1760 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 74 74 SW 16 26 7769 5744 114 Blue 3
7 PM Thu 69 69 SSW 16 25 5400 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 64 64 SSW 14 24 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 62 62 SSW 14 23 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 62 62 SSW 13 21 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 62 62 SSW 12 21 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 62 62 SSW 12 20 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 62 62 SSW 12 20 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 61 61 SSW 12 21 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 61 61 SSW 12 21 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 60 60 SSW 12 21 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 60 60 SSW 12 21 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 61 61 SSW 12 21 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 62 62 SSW 12 21 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 67 67 SSW 12 20 5054 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 74 75 SSW 10 17 8121 6923 1293 Blue 4
10 AM Fri 74 77 S 8 14 8813 7742 2112 Blue 6
11 AM Fri 75 79 S 6 13 9492 8435 2805 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 76 81 SSW 8 14 10410 9114 3484 Blue 10
1 PM Fri 76 81 SSW 10 18 10410 9114 3484 Blue 10
2 PM Fri 77 81 SSW 12 21 10410 9114 3484 Blue 10
3 PM Fri 76 79 SW 13 23 9492 8435 2805 Blue 8
4 PM Fri 76 78 SW 13 23 9154 8091 2461 Blue 7
5 PM Fri 75 76 SW 13 21 8469 7390 1760 Blue 5
6 PM Fri 74 74 SW 12 20 7769 5744 114 Blue 3
7 PM Fri 68 68 SSW 11 19 5227 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 63 63 SSW 10 18 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 62 62 SSW 10 18 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 61 61 SSW 11 18 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 61 61 SSW 11 19 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 61 61 SSW 11 19 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 60 60 SW 11 19 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 60 60 SW 11 19 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 60 60 SW 11 19 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 59 59 SW 11 19 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 59 59 SW 11 19 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 60 60 SW 11 19 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 60 60 WSW 11 19 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 65 65 WSW 12 20 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 70 72 SW 12 20 6992 5630 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 71 74 SW 13 23 7769 5744 114 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 72 77 SW 14 24 8813 7742 2112 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 72 78 SW 14 25 9154 8091 2461 Blue 7
1 PM Sat 72 78 WSW 16 26 9154 8091 2461 Blue 7
2 PM Sat 73 79 WSW 17 27 9492 8435 2805 Blue 8
3 PM Sat 72 76 WSW 18 29 8469 7390 1760 Blue 5
4 PM Sat 72 75 WSW 19 31 8121 6923 1293 Blue 4
5 PM Sat 71 72 WSW 20 31 6992 5630 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sat 70 70 WSW 17 28 5573 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 64 64 WSW 14 23 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 59 59 SW 11 19 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 58 58 SW 10 18 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 57 57 SW 10 17 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 57 57 SW 10 18 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 57 57 WSW 10 18 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 56 56 WSW 10 18 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 56 56 WSW 10 18 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 56 56 WSW 10 18 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 55 55 WSW 10 18 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 55 55 WSW 10 18 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 56 56 WSW 10 18 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 57 57 WSW 10 18 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 62 62 WSW 6 12 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 70 72 WSW 6 12 6992 5630 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 70 74 WSW 6 12 7769 5744 114 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 71 76 WSW 5 12 8469 7390 1760 Blue 5
12 Noon Sun 72 78 WSW 5 12 9154 8091 2461 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 72 79 WSW 5 12 9492 8435 2805 Blue 8
2 PM Sun 73 79 W 11 19 9492 8435 2805 Blue 8
3 PM Sun 72 77 W 11 19 8813 7742 2112 Blue 6
4 PM Sun 72 75 W 11 19 8121 6923 1293 Blue 4
5 PM Sun 71 72 W 12 21 6992 5630 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sun 70 70 W 12 21 5573 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 64 64 W 12 21 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 59 59 W 14 24 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 57 57 W 14 24 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 56 56 W 14 24 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 56 56 W 16 25 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 56 56 W 16 25 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 56 56 W 16 25 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 55 55 W 16 25 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 55 55 W 16 25 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 54 54 W 16 25 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 54 54 W 14 24 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 56 56 W 14 24 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 56 56 W 14 24 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 63 63 NW 11 18 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 71 73 NW 11 18 7413 5630 0 Blue 2
10 AM Mon 72 75 NW 11 18 8121 6923 1293 Blue 4
11 AM Mon 73 78 NE 4 10 9154 8091 2461 Blue 7
12 Noon Mon 74 80 NE 4 10 9827 8777 3147 Blue 9
1 PM Mon 74 81 NE 4 10 10410 9114 3484 Blue 10
2 PM Mon 75 81 E 5 11 10410 9114 3484 Blue 10
3 PM Mon 74 79 E 5 11 9492 8435 2805 Blue 8
4 PM Mon 74 77 E 5 11 8813 7742 2112 Blue 6
5 PM Mon 73 74 ENE 4 10 7769 5744 114 Blue 3
6 PM Mon 72 72 ENE 4 10 6992 5630 0 Blue 1
7 PM Mon 66 66 ENE 4 10 4881 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 61 61 E 5 11 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 59 59 E 5 11 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 58 58 E 5 11 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 58 58 E 6 13 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 58 58 E 6 13 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 58 58 E 6 13 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 57 57 E 8 14 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 57 57 E 8 14 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 56 56 E 8 14 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 56 56 E 9 16 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 58 58 E 9 16 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 58 58 E 9 16 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 64 64 E 9 16 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 72 74 E 9 16 7769 5744 114 Blue 3
10 AM Tue 73 76 E 9 16 8469 7390 1760 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 74 79 E 9 16 9492 8435 2805 Blue 8
12 Noon Tue 75 81 E 9 16 10410 9114 3484 Blue 10
1 PM Tue 75 82 E 9 16 11099 9449 3819 Blue 11
2 PM Tue 76 82 E 9 14 11099 9449 3819 Blue 11
3 PM Tue 75 80 E 9 14 9827 8777 3147 Blue 9
4 PM Tue 75 78 E 9 14 9154 8091 2461 Blue 7
5 PM Tue 74 75 E 5 12 8121 6923 1293 Blue 4
6 PM Tue 73 73 E 5 12 7413 5630 0 Blue 2
7 PM Tue 68 68 E 5 12 5227 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 62 62 ESE 4 9 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 61 61 ESE 4 9 4879 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 60 60 ESE 4 9 4879 5630 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst