Detailed Predictions for: Lake Elsinore
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.6298130238, -117.371441183, 2650
LZ Altitude (f): 1350
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

27 FEB 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 55 55 ESE 1 3 3141 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 51 51 ENE 1 2 2497 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 46 46 N 0 1 2497 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 45 45 ENE 0 1 2497 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 45 45 SE 0 1 2497 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 44 44 SSW 0 0 2497 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 45 45 S 0 1 2497 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 45 45 S 1 2 2497 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 46 47 S 1 3 2497 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 52 54 SSW 1 2 2940 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 57 61 SSW 0 1 4338 3736 1086 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 63 68 SW 0 0 6246 5260 2610 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 65 70 W 2 2 6873 5897 3247 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 66 70 NW 3 4 6873 5897 3247 Blue 6
2 PM Sat 68 71 NNW 5 5 7277 6212 3562 Blue 7
3 PM Sat 68 70 NNW 4 5 6873 5897 3247 Blue 6
4 PM Sat 68 68 NW 4 5 6246 5260 2610 Blue 5
5 PM Sat 69 69 NW 4 5 6561 5580 2930 Blue 5
6 PM Sat 67 67 NW 4 6 5928 4937 2287 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 66 66 NNW 4 8 5608 4722 2072 Blue 3
8 PM Sat 65 65 NNW 4 9 5285 4526 1876 Blue 2
9 PM Sat 63 63 SW 4 9 4734 4132 1482 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 61 61 ESE 4 9 4338 3736 1086 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 60 60 N 4 8 4140 3537 887 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 55 55 NNE 5 10 3141 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 50 50 NNE 5 12 2497 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 45 45 NNE 6 14 2497 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 44 44 NNE 7 15 2497 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 43 43 NNE 7 16 2497 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 42 42 N 8 17 2497 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 42 42 N 8 18 2497 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 42 42 N 8 18 2497 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 42 43 N 8 18 2497 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 48 50 NNE 8 15 2497 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 53 56 NE 8 13 3341 2739 89 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 58 62 NE 9 10 4536 3934 1284 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 60 65 NE 8 10 5285 4526 1876 Blue 2
1 PM Sun 62 66 ENE 8 9 5608 4722 2072 Blue 3
2 PM Sun 64 67 ENE 8 9 5928 4937 2287 Blue 4
3 PM Sun 64 66 ENE 7 9 5608 4722 2072 Blue 3
4 PM Sun 65 65 ENE 7 8 5285 4526 1876 Blue 2
5 PM Sun 65 65 ENE 6 8 5285 4526 1876 Blue 2
6 PM Sun 63 63 ENE 6 9 4734 4132 1482 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 60 60 ENE 6 10 4140 3537 887 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 58 58 ENE 5 11 3741 3139 489 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 56 56 ENE 4 10 3341 2739 89 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 54 54 NE 4 8 2940 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 52 52 NE 3 7 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 50 50 NE 3 7 2497 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 47 47 NE 3 6 2497 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 44 44 NE 2 6 2497 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 43 43 NE 3 6 2497 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 42 42 NE 3 7 2497 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 41 41 NE 3 8 2497 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 42 42 NE 3 8 2497 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 43 43 NE 3 8 2497 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 44 45 NE 3 8 2497 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 50 52 NE 4 7 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 56 60 ENE 4 6 4140 3537 887 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 62 67 E 5 6 5928 4937 2287 Blue 4
12 Noon Mon 65 70 ESE 4 5 6873 5897 3247 Blue 6
1 PM Mon 68 72 ESE 3 4 8297 6524 3874 Blue 8
2 PM Mon 71 74 SE 3 3 10035 7140 4490 Blue 10
3 PM Mon 72 74 S 2 2 10035 7140 4490 Blue 10
4 PM Mon 72 72 SW 1 2 8297 6524 3874 Blue 8
5 PM Mon 72 72 WSW 1 1 8297 6524 3874 Blue 8
6 PM Mon 71 71 W 0 1 7277 6212 3562 Blue 7
7 PM Mon 70 70 W 0 1 6873 5897 3247 Blue 6
8 PM Mon 69 69 W 0 0 6561 5580 2930 Blue 5
9 PM Mon 66 66 SSW 0 1 5608 4722 2072 Blue 3
10 PM Mon 64 64 SSE 1 2 4959 4329 1679 Blue 1
11 PM Mon 62 62 E 1 3 4536 3934 1284 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst