Detailed Predictions for: Lake Elsinore
Launch Altitude (f): 2650
LZ Altitude (f): 1350
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

19 JUN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 56 56 NW 2 2840 2669 19 Blue 3
6 AM Tue 58 58 NW 2 3003 2783 133 Blue 5
7 AM Tue 60 60 NW 2 3214 2897 247 Blue 7
8 AM Tue 63 64 N 2 3491 3316 666 Blue 11
9 AM Tue 67 70 N 3 4028 3645 995 Blue 17
10 AM Tue 72 77 N 3 4700 4367 1717 Blue 24
11 AM Tue 77 84 N 3 6060 5363 2713 Blue 31
12 Noon Tue 81 89 N 3 7190 6492 3842 Blue 36
1 PM Tue 84 92 N 3 7823 7159 4509 Blue 39
2 PM Tue 84 92 NW 3 7823 7159 4509 Blue 39
3 PM Tue 84 90 W 6 7402 6720 4070 Blue 37
4 PM Tue 83 88 W 7 6979 6263 3613 Blue 35
5 PM Tue 80 83 W 9 5828 5165 2515 Blue 30
6 PM Tue 78 79 W 7 4983 4545 1895 Blue 26
7 PM Tue 76 76 W 5 4557 4308 1658 Blue 23
8 PM Tue 73 73 N 3 4311 4021 1371 Blue 20
9 PM Tue 70 70 N 3 4028 3645 995 Blue 17
10 PM Tue 66 66 N 3 3595 3437 787 Blue 13
11 PM Tue 64 64 N 3 3491 3316 666 Blue 11
12 Midnight Wed 64 64 N 3 3491 3316 666 Blue 11
1 AM Wed 65 65 NW 2 3543 3385 735 Blue 12
2 AM Wed 66 66 NW 3 3595 3437 787 Blue 13
3 AM Wed 66 66 NW 3 3595 3437 787 Blue 13
4 AM Wed 66 66 NW 3 3595 3437 787 Blue 13
5 AM Wed 67 67 N 5 3647 3489 839 Blue 14
6 AM Wed 70 70 N 5 4028 3645 995 Blue 17
7 AM Wed 73 73 N 5 4311 4021 1371 Blue 20
8 AM Wed 77 78 N 3 4808 4424 1774 Blue 25
9 AM Wed 81 84 N 3 6060 5363 2713 Blue 31
10 AM Wed 85 90 N 3 7402 6720 4070 Blue 37
11 AM Wed 88 95 NE 3 8450 7787 5137 Blue 42
12 Noon Wed 91 99 NE 3 9278 8617 5967 Blue 46
1 PM Wed 92 101 NW 2 9689 9028 6378 Blue 48
2 PM Wed 92 100 W 7 9484 8823 6173 Blue 47
3 PM Wed 93 100 W 8 9484 8823 6173 Blue 47
4 PM Wed 92 97 W 9 8865 8203 5553 Blue 44
5 PM Wed 89 92 W 12 7823 7159 4509 Blue 39
6 PM Wed 86 87 W 10 6751 6034 3384 Blue 34
7 PM Wed 83 83 W 6 5828 5165 2515 Blue 30
8 PM Wed 79 79 NE 3 4983 4545 1895 Blue 26
9 PM Wed 75 75 N 2 4428 4249 1599 Blue 22
10 PM Wed 71 71 N 2 4187 3704 1054 Blue 18
11 PM Wed 68 68 N 2 3710 3541 891 Blue 15
12 Midnight Thu 67 67 N 2 3647 3489 839 Blue 14
1 AM Thu 67 67 N 2 3647 3489 839 Blue 14
2 AM Thu 67 67 N 2 3647 3489 839 Blue 14
3 AM Thu 66 66 N 1 3595 3437 787 Blue 13
4 AM Thu 65 65 N 2 3543 3385 735 Blue 12
5 AM Thu 65 65 N 1 3543 3385 735 Blue 12
6 AM Thu 66 66 N 1 3595 3437 787 Blue 13
7 AM Thu 69 69 N 1 3869 3593 943 Blue 16
8 AM Thu 72 73 E 1 4311 4021 1371 Blue 20
9 AM Thu 76 79 E 1 4983 4545 1895 Blue 26
10 AM Thu 81 86 E 2 6521 5802 3152 Blue 33
11 AM Thu 84 91 NE 3 7612 6947 4297 Blue 38
12 Noon Thu 88 96 N 3 8657 7995 5345 Blue 43
1 PM Thu 90 99 N 3 9278 8617 5967 Blue 46
2 PM Thu 91 99 W 6 9278 8617 5967 Blue 46
3 PM Thu 90 96 W 7 8657 7995 5345 Blue 43
4 PM Thu 90 95 W 7 8450 7787 5137 Blue 42
5 PM Thu 89 92 W 6 7823 7159 4509 Blue 39
6 PM Thu 86 87 NW 6 6751 6034 3384 Blue 34
7 PM Thu 83 83 NW 5 5828 5165 2515 Blue 30
8 PM Thu 79 79 N 5 4983 4545 1895 Blue 26
9 PM Thu 75 75 N 3 4428 4249 1599 Blue 22
10 PM Thu 71 71 N 3 4187 3704 1054 Blue 18
11 PM Thu 69 69 N 2 3869 3593 943 Blue 16
12 Midnight Fri 68 68 N 2 3710 3541 891 Blue 15
1 AM Fri 68 68 NW 2 3710 3541 891 Blue 15
2 AM Fri 67 67 NW 2 3647 3489 839 Blue 14
3 AM Fri 66 66 NW 2 3595 3437 787 Blue 13
4 AM Fri 64 64 NW 3 3491 3316 666 Blue 11
5 AM Fri 64 64 NW 2 3491 3316 666 Blue 11
6 AM Fri 66 66 NW 2 3595 3437 787 Blue 13
7 AM Fri 70 70 NW 2 4028 3645 995 Blue 17
8 AM Fri 74 75 NW 3 4428 4249 1599 Blue 22
9 AM Fri 79 82 NW 3 5579 4967 2317 Blue 29
10 AM Fri 84 89 NW 3 7190 6492 3842 Blue 36
11 AM Fri 88 95 W 5 8450 7787 5137 Blue 42
12 Noon Fri 89 97 W 5 8865 8203 5553 Blue 44
1 PM Fri 90 98 W 5 9072 8410 5760 Blue 45
2 PM Fri 90 98 W 9 9072 8410 5760 Blue 45
3 PM Fri 90 96 W 9 8657 7995 5345 Blue 43
4 PM Fri 90 94 W 9 8241 7578 4928 Blue 41
5 PM Fri 89 91 W 13 7612 6947 4297 Blue 38
6 PM Fri 89 90 W 13 7402 6720 4070 Blue 37
7 PM Fri 88 88 W 13 6979 6263 3613 Blue 35
8 PM Fri 86 86 NW 8 6521 5802 3152 Blue 33
9 PM Fri 81 81 NW 8 5381 4800 2150 Blue 28
10 PM Fri 76 76 NW 8 4557 4308 1658 Blue 23
11 PM Fri 72 72 N 3 4252 3863 1213 Blue 19
12 Midnight Sat 70 70 N 3 4028 3645 995 Blue 17
1 AM Sat 70 70 N 3 4028 3645 995 Blue 17
2 AM Sat 69 69 W 2 3869 3593 943 Blue 16
3 AM Sat 68 68 W 2 3710 3541 891 Blue 15
4 AM Sat 66 66 W 2 3595 3437 787 Blue 13
5 AM Sat 66 66 S 2 3595 3437 787 Blue 13
6 AM Sat 68 68 S 2 3710 3541 891 Blue 15
7 AM Sat 71 71 S 2 4187 3704 1054 Blue 18
8 AM Sat 75 76 S 5 4557 4308 1658 Blue 23
9 AM Sat 80 83 S 5 5828 5165 2515 Blue 30
10 AM Sat 83 88 S 5 6979 6263 3613 Blue 35
11 AM Sat 86 93 SW 7 8032 7369 4719 Blue 40
12 Noon Sat 88 96 SW 7 8657 7995 5345 Blue 43
1 PM Sat 89 98 SW 7 9072 8410 5760 Blue 45
2 PM Sat 89 97 SW 10 8865 8203 5553 Blue 44
3 PM Sat 88 94 SW 10 8241 7578 4928 Blue 41
4 PM Sat 87 92 SW 10 7823 7159 4509 Blue 39
5 PM Sat 86 89 SW 13 7190 6492 3842 Blue 36
6 PM Sat 84 85 SW 13 6291 5560 2910 Blue 32
7 PM Sat 82 82 SW 13 5579 4967 2317 Blue 29
8 PM Sat 78 78 S 9 4808 4424 1774 Blue 25
9 PM Sat 75 75 S 9 4428 4249 1599 Blue 22
10 PM Sat 71 71 S 9 4187 3704 1054 Blue 18
11 PM Sat 68 68 S 6 3710 3541 891 Blue 15
12 Midnight Sun 66 66 S 6 3595 3437 787 Blue 13
1 AM Sun 65 65 S 6 3543 3385 735 Blue 12
2 AM Sun 64 64 S 6 3491 3316 666 Blue 11
3 AM Sun 63 63 S 6 3439 3211 561 Blue 10
4 AM Sun 62 62 S 6 3386 3106 456 Blue 9
5 AM Sun 61 61 S 7 3319 3002 352 Blue 8
6 AM Sun 62 62 S 7 3386 3106 456 Blue 9
7 AM Sun 64 64 S 7 3491 3316 666 Blue 11
8 AM Sun 67 68 S 6 3710 3541 891 Blue 15
9 AM Sun 70 73 S 6 4311 4021 1371 Blue 20
10 AM Sun 74 79 S 6 4983 4545 1895 Blue 26
11 AM Sun 77 84 S 7 6060 5363 2713 Blue 31
12 Noon Sun 79 87 S 7 6751 6034 3384 Blue 34
1 PM Sun 81 90 S 7 7402 6720 4070 Blue 37
2 PM Sun 81 89 SW 10 7190 6492 3842 Blue 36
3 PM Sun 80 87 SW 10 6751 6034 3384 Blue 34
4 PM Sun 79 84 SW 10 6060 5363 2713 Blue 31
5 PM Sun 78 81 SW 12 5381 4800 2150 Blue 28
6 PM Sun 76 77 SW 12 4700 4367 1717 Blue 24
7 PM Sun 75 75 SW 12 4428 4249 1599 Blue 22
8 PM Sun 73 73 SW 8 4311 4021 1371 Blue 20
9 PM Sun 71 71 SW 8 4187 3704 1054 Blue 18
10 PM Sun 68 68 SW 8 3710 3541 891 Blue 15
11 PM Sun 66 66 S 3 3595 3437 787 Blue 13
12 Midnight Mon 64 64 S 3 3491 3316 666 Blue 11
1 AM Mon 64 64 S 3 3491 3316 666 Blue 11
2 AM Mon 63 63 S 3 3439 3211 561 Blue 10
3 AM Mon 62 62 S 3 3386 3106 456 Blue 9
4 AM Mon 60 60 S 3 3214 2897 247 Blue 7

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst