Detailed Predictions for: Lake Elsinore
Launch Altitude (f): 2650
LZ Altitude (f): 1350
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

16 FEB 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sat 41 41 W 16 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 42 42 W 17 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 41 41 W 17 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 40 40 W 17 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 40 40 W 16 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 42 43 W 17 2849 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 44 45 W 17 3325 2650 0 White 2
11 AM Sat 45 46 W 17 3544 2846 196 White 3
12 Noon Sat 47 48 W 15 3981 3981 1331 White 5
1 PM Sat 47 48 W 17 3981 3981 1331 White 5
2 PM Sat 46 47 W 18 3763 3136 486 White 4
3 PM Sat 45 45 W 21 3325 2650 0 White 2
4 PM Sat 44 44 W 22 3105 2650 0 White 1
5 PM Sat 43 43 W 22 2849 2650 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 43 43 W 21 2849 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 42 42 W 21 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 42 42 W 22 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 42 42 W 21 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 41 41 W 16 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 41 41 W 15 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 40 40 W 17 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 40 40 W 14 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 40 40 W 14 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 40 40 W 16 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 40 40 W 17 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 40 40 W 15 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 39 39 W 16 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 39 39 W 17 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 39 39 W 15 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 41 42 W 14 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 42 42 W 13 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 43 44 SW 24 3105 2650 0 White 1
12 Noon Sun 44 45 W 29 3325 2650 0 White 2
1 PM Sun 44 45 W 24 3325 2650 0 White 2
2 PM Sun 43 43 W 28 2849 2650 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 42 42 W 29 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 42 42 W 29 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 40 40 W 24 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 40 40 W 18 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 40 40 W 22 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 39 39 W 21 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 39 39 W 20 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 38 38 W 20 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 38 38 W 16 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 37 37 W 10 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 37 37 NW 3 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 37 37 S 3 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 37 37 SW 2 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 36 36 N 1 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 37 37 N 1 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 36 36 N 1 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 36 36 N 9 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 37 37 N 9 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 40 41 N 9 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 42 45 N 13 3325 2650 0 White 2
11 AM Mon 44 47 N 13 3763 3136 486 White 4
12 Noon Mon 47 51 N 13 4638 4638 1988 White 8
1 PM Mon 47 50 W 12 4417 4417 1767 White 7
2 PM Mon 46 49 W 12 4199 4199 1549 White 6
3 PM Mon 45 46 W 12 3544 2846 196 White 3
4 PM Mon 44 44 NW 13 3105 2650 0 White 1
5 PM Mon 42 42 NW 13 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 42 42 NW 13 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 41 41 W 14 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 40 40 W 14 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 40 40 W 14 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 40 40 N 12 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 39 39 N 12 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 39 39 N 12 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 39 39 N 17 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 38 38 N 17 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 38 38 N 17 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 38 38 N 14 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 38 38 N 14 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 38 38 N 14 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 37 37 N 21 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 38 38 N 21 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 41 42 N 21 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 43 46 N 15 3544 2846 196 White 3
11 AM Tue 45 49 N 15 4199 4199 1549 White 6
12 Noon Tue 48 52 N 15 4860 4860 2210 White 9
1 PM Tue 48 52 NW 9 4860 4860 2210 White 9
2 PM Tue 46 49 NW 9 4199 4199 1549 White 6
3 PM Tue 46 47 NW 9 3763 3136 486 White 4
4 PM Tue 45 45 W 8 3325 2650 0 White 2
5 PM Tue 43 43 W 8 2849 2650 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 43 43 W 8 2849 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 42 42 W 7 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 41 41 W 7 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 41 41 W 7 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 40 40 NW 8 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 39 39 NW 8 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 39 39 NW 8 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 39 39 N 10 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 38 38 N 10 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 38 38 N 10 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 38 38 N 5 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 38 38 N 5 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 38 38 N 5 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 37 37 N 5 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 38 38 N 5 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 41 42 N 5 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 43 45 W 3 3325 2650 0 White 2
11 AM Wed 45 48 W 3 3981 3981 1331 White 5
12 Noon Wed 48 51 W 3 4638 4638 1988 White 8
1 PM Wed 48 51 NW 8 4638 4638 1988 White 8
2 PM Wed 47 49 NW 8 4199 4199 1549 White 6
3 PM Wed 46 47 NW 8 3763 3136 486 White 4
4 PM Wed 45 45 W 14 3325 2650 0 White 2
5 PM Wed 44 44 W 14 3105 2650 0 White 1
6 PM Wed 44 44 W 14 3105 2650 0 White 1
7 PM Wed 43 43 W 15 2849 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 42 42 W 15 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 42 42 W 15 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 41 41 W 12 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 41 41 W 12 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 40 40 W 12 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 41 41 NW 2 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 40 40 NW 2 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 40 40 NW 2 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 40 40 SW 6 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 40 40 SW 6 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 39 39 SW 6 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 39 39 N 5 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 40 40 N 5 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 42 42 N 5 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 43 44 N 7 3105 2650 0 White 1
11 AM Thu 44 45 N 7 3325 2650 0 White 2
12 Noon Thu 46 47 N 7 3763 3136 486 White 4
1 PM Thu 46 47 N 9 3763 3136 486 White 4
2 PM Thu 45 46 N 9 3544 2846 196 White 3
3 PM Thu 44 44 N 9 3105 2650 0 White 1
4 PM Thu 43 43 N 16 2849 2650 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 42 42 N 16 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 42 42 N 16 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 41 41 NE 15 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 40 40 NE 15 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 40 40 NE 15 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 39 39 NE 7 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 39 39 NE 7 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 38 38 NE 7 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 39 39 N 10 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 38 38 N 10 1870 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 38 38 N 10 1870 2650 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst