Detailed Predictions for: Lake Elsinore
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.6298130238, -117.371441183, 2650
LZ Altitude (f): 1350
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

16 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 62 62 NNE 1 5 2578 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 61 61 NNE 1 4 2568 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 60 60 ENE 1 5 2558 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 60 60 E 1 4 2558 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 59 59 E 1 5 2548 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 59 59 ESE 2 5 2548 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 58 58 SE 1 5 2538 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 58 58 SSE 2 6 2538 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 64 64 SE 2 5 2599 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 66 67 ESE 2 6 2629 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 69 72 ESE 3 8 2738 2664 14 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 73 78 SSE 3 6 3941 3135 485 Blue 10
12 Noon Thu 77 83 S 2 6 5118 4452 1802 Blue 15
1 PM Thu 79 86 SW 5 10 5618 5104 2454 Blue 18
2 PM Thu 81 87 WSW 8 14 5784 5270 2620 Blue 19
3 PM Thu 80 85 WSW 9 16 5451 4938 2288 Blue 17
4 PM Thu 81 84 WSW 9 16 5284 4712 2062 Blue 16
5 PM Thu 78 79 WSW 9 17 4205 3401 751 Blue 11
6 PM Thu 74 74 W 8 14 2938 2708 58 Blue 6
7 PM Thu 68 68 NW 6 12 2641 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 66 66 NNW 5 11 2619 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 64 64 N 4 10 2599 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 63 63 N 3 8 2589 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 62 62 N 2 6 2578 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 61 61 NNE 2 5 2568 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 60 60 ENE 1 5 2558 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 60 60 ENE 1 5 2558 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 59 59 E 1 5 2548 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 59 59 SE 2 6 2548 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 59 59 SSE 2 6 2548 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 58 58 SSE 3 8 2538 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 58 58 SE 3 8 2538 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 64 64 SE 3 8 2599 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 67 68 SE 3 8 2641 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 69 71 SSE 3 9 2708 2650 0 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 74 79 S 4 9 4205 3401 751 Blue 11
12 Noon Fri 78 84 S 5 10 5284 4712 2062 Blue 16
1 PM Fri 80 86 SSW 6 12 5618 5104 2454 Blue 18
2 PM Fri 82 88 SW 8 13 7104 5436 2786 Blue 20
3 PM Fri 81 85 SW 9 16 5451 4938 2288 Blue 17
4 PM Fri 82 85 SW 10 17 5451 4938 2288 Blue 17
5 PM Fri 79 80 SW 10 17 4468 3666 1016 Blue 12
6 PM Fri 76 76 SW 9 14 3408 2842 192 Blue 8
7 PM Fri 70 70 SW 5 11 2686 2650 0 Blue 2
8 PM Fri 68 68 SW 3 9 2641 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 67 67 W 2 6 2629 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 65 65 NNW 2 5 2609 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 65 65 NNE 1 5 2609 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 64 64 NE 1 5 2599 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 63 63 E 1 5 2589 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 63 63 E 2 5 2589 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 62 62 ESE 2 6 2578 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 62 62 SE 3 8 2578 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 62 62 SE 3 8 2578 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 61 61 SE 3 8 2568 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 61 61 SE 3 8 2568 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 66 66 SE 2 6 2619 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 69 70 SSE 2 6 2686 2650 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 71 74 S 2 5 2938 2708 58 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 75 80 SSW 2 6 4468 3666 1016 Blue 12
12 Noon Sat 78 84 SW 4 10 5284 4712 2062 Blue 16
1 PM Sat 80 86 WSW 6 13 5618 5104 2454 Blue 18
2 PM Sat 82 88 WSW 9 17 7104 5436 2786 Blue 20
3 PM Sat 81 85 WSW 11 18 5451 4938 2288 Blue 17
4 PM Sat 82 85 WSW 11 19 5451 4938 2288 Blue 17
5 PM Sat 79 80 WSW 11 19 4468 3666 1016 Blue 12
6 PM Sat 75 75 SW 10 17 3140 2737 87 Blue 7
7 PM Sat 70 70 SSW 6 13 2686 2650 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 67 67 S 4 10 2629 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 66 66 SSE 3 9 2619 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 64 64 E 3 8 2599 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 64 64 ENE 2 6 2599 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 63 63 ENE 2 6 2589 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 62 62 NE 2 5 2578 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 62 62 NE 1 5 2578 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 61 61 NE 1 5 2568 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 61 61 NNE 2 5 2568 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 61 61 NNE 2 5 2568 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 60 60 NNE 2 5 2558 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 60 60 NNE 2 5 2558 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 65 65 NNE 1 5 2609 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 67 68 NNE 1 5 2641 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 69 72 NNE 1 5 2738 2664 14 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 73 78 WNW 2 5 3941 3135 485 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 76 82 WNW 2 5 4950 4191 1541 Blue 14
1 PM Sun 78 85 WNW 2 5 5451 4938 2288 Blue 17
2 PM Sun 80 86 W 6 12 5618 5104 2454 Blue 18
3 PM Sun 79 84 W 6 12 5284 4712 2062 Blue 16
4 PM Sun 80 83 W 6 12 5118 4452 1802 Blue 15
5 PM Sun 77 78 W 10 18 3941 3135 485 Blue 10
6 PM Sun 73 73 W 10 18 2843 2686 36 Blue 5
7 PM Sun 67 67 W 10 18 2629 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 64 64 W 4 10 2599 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 64 64 W 4 10 2599 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 62 62 W 4 10 2578 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 61 61 ENE 1 5 2568 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 60 60 ENE 1 5 2558 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 59 59 ENE 1 5 2548 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 59 59 SSW 3 8 2548 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 58 58 SSW 3 8 2538 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 58 58 SSW 3 8 2538 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 58 58 W 1 4 2538 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 57 57 W 1 4 2528 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 57 57 W 1 4 2528 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 64 64 SE 1 5 2599 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 67 68 SE 1 5 2641 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 69 72 SE 1 5 2738 2664 14 Blue 4
11 AM Mon 75 80 NNW 4 10 4468 3666 1016 Blue 12
12 Noon Mon 79 85 NNW 4 10 5451 4938 2288 Blue 17
1 PM Mon 82 89 NNW 4 10 7448 5602 2952 Blue 21
2 PM Mon 84 90 N 3 6 7788 5767 3117 Blue 22
3 PM Mon 83 88 N 3 6 7104 5436 2786 Blue 20
4 PM Mon 84 87 N 3 6 5784 5270 2620 Blue 19
5 PM Mon 81 82 WSW 9 16 4950 4191 1541 Blue 14
6 PM Mon 77 77 WSW 9 16 3675 2937 287 Blue 9
7 PM Mon 72 72 WSW 9 16 2738 2664 14 Blue 4
8 PM Mon 69 69 NE 3 8 2664 2650 0 Blue 1
9 PM Mon 68 68 NE 3 8 2641 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 66 66 NE 3 8 2619 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 66 66 ENE 1 5 2619 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 65 65 ENE 1 5 2609 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 64 64 ENE 1 5 2599 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 64 64 NE 2 6 2599 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 63 63 NE 2 6 2589 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 63 63 NE 2 6 2589 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 63 63 NE 2 6 2589 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 62 62 NE 2 6 2578 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 62 62 NE 2 6 2578 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 68 68 NNE 3 8 2641 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 71 72 NNE 3 8 2738 2664 14 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 74 77 NNE 3 8 3675 2937 287 Blue 9
11 AM Tue 78 83 NNE 3 6 5118 4452 1802 Blue 15
12 Noon Tue 82 88 NNE 3 6 7104 5436 2786 Blue 20
1 PM Tue 85 91 NNE 3 6 8125 7004 4354 Blue 23
2 PM Tue 87 93 SW 5 10 8789 7732 5082 Blue 25
3 PM Tue 86 90 SW 5 10 7788 5767 3117 Blue 22
4 PM Tue 86 89 SW 5 10 7448 5602 2952 Blue 21
5 PM Tue 84 85 WSW 9 16 5451 4938 2288 Blue 17
6 PM Tue 80 80 WSW 9 16 4468 3666 1016 Blue 12
7 PM Tue 74 74 WSW 9 16 2938 2708 58 Blue 6
8 PM Tue 71 71 NNW 2 6 2708 2650 0 Blue 3
9 PM Tue 70 70 NNW 2 6 2686 2650 0 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 68 68 NNW 2 6 2641 2650 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst