Detailed Predictions for: Lake Elsinore
Launch Altitude (f): 2650
LZ Altitude (f): 1350
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

16 OCT 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 54 54 N 10 1437 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 54 54 N 13 1437 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 54 54 N 14 1437 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 55 55 N 16 1437 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 58 59 N 16 1437 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 62 64 N 16 3666 2650 0 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 66 69 N 14 8004 5153 2503 Blue 6
12 Noon Tue 68 72 N 13 8769 7921 5271 Blue 9
1 PM Tue 70 74 N 13 9272 8465 5815 Blue 11
2 PM Tue 72 76 N 13 9771 8968 6318 Blue 13
3 PM Tue 72 75 N 14 9522 8717 6067 Blue 12
4 PM Tue 72 73 N 16 9021 8213 5563 Blue 10
5 PM Tue 72 72 N 14 8769 7921 5271 Blue 9
6 PM Tue 70 70 N 10 8260 6175 3525 Blue 7
7 PM Tue 67 67 N 7 6292 3638 988 Blue 4
8 PM Tue 64 64 N 2 3666 2650 0 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 63 63 SE 1 2855 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 62 62 S 0 1827 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 62 62 S 3 1827 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 61 61 W 0 1437 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 60 60 N 1 1437 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 59 59 N 5 1437 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 58 58 N 6 1437 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 57 57 N 6 1437 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 56 56 N 6 1437 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 55 55 N 6 1437 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 55 55 N 6 1437 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 56 56 N 6 1437 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 59 60 N 6 1437 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 63 65 N 8 4424 2650 0 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 67 70 N 8 8260 6175 3525 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 70 74 N 8 9272 8465 5815 Blue 11
1 PM Wed 72 76 N 7 9771 8968 6318 Blue 13
2 PM Wed 74 78 N 8 10234 9465 6815 Blue 15
3 PM Wed 73 76 N 8 9771 8968 6318 Blue 13
4 PM Wed 74 75 N 8 9522 8717 6067 Blue 12
5 PM Wed 73 73 NE 8 9021 8213 5563 Blue 10
6 PM Wed 72 72 N 8 8769 7921 5271 Blue 9
7 PM Wed 70 70 N 8 8260 6175 3525 Blue 7
8 PM Wed 68 68 N 7 7221 4380 1730 Blue 5
9 PM Wed 66 66 N 6 5248 2846 196 Blue 3
10 PM Wed 64 64 N 5 3666 2650 0 Blue 1
11 PM Wed 63 63 NE 2 2855 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 62 62 NE 2 1827 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 61 61 NE 2 1437 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 61 61 NE 3 1437 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 60 60 NE 3 1437 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 59 59 NE 3 1437 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 58 58 N 6 1437 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 57 57 N 7 1437 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 57 57 N 7 1437 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 58 58 N 10 1437 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 61 62 N 10 1827 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 64 66 N 10 5248 2846 196 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 68 71 N 10 8515 7088 4438 Blue 8
12 Noon Thu 71 75 N 10 9522 8717 6067 Blue 12
1 PM Thu 73 77 N 10 10018 9217 6567 Blue 14
2 PM Thu 75 79 N 8 10405 9711 7061 Blue 16
3 PM Thu 76 79 N 8 10405 9711 7061 Blue 16
4 PM Thu 76 77 N 8 10018 9217 6567 Blue 14
5 PM Thu 76 76 NE 7 9771 8968 6318 Blue 13
6 PM Thu 74 74 NE 7 9272 8465 5815 Blue 11
7 PM Thu 72 72 E 7 8769 7921 5271 Blue 9
8 PM Thu 69 69 E 7 8004 5153 2503 Blue 6
9 PM Thu 68 68 E 7 7221 4380 1730 Blue 5
10 PM Thu 66 66 E 6 5248 2846 196 Blue 3
11 PM Thu 66 66 E 6 5248 2846 196 Blue 3
12 Midnight Fri 65 65 E 5 4424 2650 0 Blue 2
1 AM Fri 64 64 NE 3 3666 2650 0 Blue 1
2 AM Fri 62 62 NE 3 1827 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 61 61 NE 6 1437 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 60 60 NE 8 1437 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 59 59 NE 10 1437 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 59 59 NE 10 1437 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 61 61 NE 10 1437 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 64 64 N 8 3666 2650 0 Blue 1
9 AM Fri 68 69 N 8 8004 5153 2503 Blue 6
10 AM Fri 72 74 N 8 9272 8465 5815 Blue 11
11 AM Fri 76 79 NE 8 10405 9711 7061 Blue 16
12 Noon Fri 79 83 NE 8 11873 10531 7881 Blue 20
1 PM Fri 81 85 NE 8 12411 11028 8378 Blue 22
2 PM Fri 82 86 NE 8 12626 11675 9025 Blue 23
3 PM Fri 82 85 NE 8 12411 11028 8378 Blue 22
4 PM Fri 82 83 NE 8 11873 10531 7881 Blue 20
5 PM Fri 81 81 NE 13 10748 10190 7540 Blue 18
6 PM Fri 78 78 NE 13 10234 9465 6815 Blue 15
7 PM Fri 76 76 NE 13 9771 8968 6318 Blue 13
8 PM Fri 74 74 E 2 9272 8465 5815 Blue 11
9 PM Fri 72 72 E 2 8769 7921 5271 Blue 9
10 PM Fri 71 71 E 2 8515 7088 4438 Blue 8
11 PM Fri 70 70 N 6 8260 6175 3525 Blue 7
12 Midnight Sat 69 69 N 6 8004 5153 2503 Blue 6
1 AM Sat 67 67 N 6 6292 3638 988 Blue 4
2 AM Sat 66 66 NE 8 5248 2846 196 Blue 3
3 AM Sat 64 64 NE 8 3666 2650 0 Blue 1
4 AM Sat 63 63 NE 8 2855 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 62 62 N 9 1827 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 61 61 N 9 1437 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 61 61 N 9 1437 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 63 63 NE 10 2855 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 67 68 NE 10 7221 4380 1730 Blue 5
10 AM Sat 72 74 NE 10 9272 8465 5815 Blue 11
11 AM Sat 77 80 E 9 10577 9957 7307 Blue 17
12 Noon Sat 80 83 E 9 11873 10531 7881 Blue 20
1 PM Sat 81 84 E 9 12195 10701 8051 Blue 21
2 PM Sat 82 85 E 9 12411 11028 8378 Blue 22
3 PM Sat 82 84 E 9 12195 10701 8051 Blue 21
4 PM Sat 82 83 E 9 11873 10531 7881 Blue 20
5 PM Sat 81 81 E 8 10748 10190 7540 Blue 18
6 PM Sat 80 80 E 8 10577 9957 7307 Blue 17
7 PM Sat 78 78 E 8 10234 9465 6815 Blue 15
8 PM Sat 76 76 NE 3 9771 8968 6318 Blue 13
9 PM Sat 75 75 NE 3 9522 8717 6067 Blue 12
10 PM Sat 75 75 NE 3 9522 8717 6067 Blue 12
11 PM Sat 74 74 NE 10 9272 8465 5815 Blue 11
12 Midnight Sun 72 72 NE 10 8769 7921 5271 Blue 9
1 AM Sun 70 70 NE 10 8260 6175 3525 Blue 7
2 AM Sun 69 69 NE 10 8004 5153 2503 Blue 6
3 AM Sun 67 67 NE 10 6292 3638 988 Blue 4
4 AM Sun 66 66 NE 10 5248 2846 196 Blue 3
5 AM Sun 65 65 NE 10 4424 2650 0 Blue 2
6 AM Sun 63 63 NE 10 2855 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 62 62 NE 10 1827 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 63 63 E 9 2855 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 67 67 E 9 6292 3638 988 Blue 4
10 AM Sun 72 73 E 9 9021 8213 5563 Blue 10
11 AM Sun 76 78 E 8 10234 9465 6815 Blue 15
12 Noon Sun 79 81 E 8 10748 10190 7540 Blue 18
1 PM Sun 79 81 E 8 10748 10190 7540 Blue 18
2 PM Sun 78 80 S 5 10577 9957 7307 Blue 17
3 PM Sun 77 78 S 5 10234 9465 6815 Blue 15
4 PM Sun 76 77 S 5 10018 9217 6567 Blue 14
5 PM Sun 74 74 SW 3 9272 8465 5815 Blue 11
6 PM Sun 73 73 SW 3 9021 8213 5563 Blue 10
7 PM Sun 71 71 SW 3 8515 7088 4438 Blue 8
8 PM Sun 70 70 N 5 8260 6175 3525 Blue 7
9 PM Sun 68 68 N 5 7221 4380 1730 Blue 5
10 PM Sun 66 66 N 5 5248 2846 196 Blue 3
11 PM Sun 65 65 NE 6 4424 2650 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Mon 64 64 NE 6 3666 2650 0 Blue 1
1 AM Mon 63 63 NE 6 2855 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 63 63 N 7 2855 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 63 63 N 7 2855 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 63 63 N 7 2855 2650 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst