Detailed Predictions for: Lake Elsinore
Launch Altitude (f): 2650
LZ Altitude (f): 1350
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

25 APR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 60 60 S 1 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 60 60 NW 1 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 62 62 W 1 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 64 65 N 1 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 68 71 NE 1 2718 2650 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 71 76 NE 2 4268 3119 469 Blue 6
11 AM Thu 75 81 E 2 6049 5067 2417 Blue 11
12 Noon Thu 78 85 NE 2 8766 6325 3675 Blue 15
1 PM Thu 79 86 NW 3 9549 7032 4382 Blue 16
2 PM Thu 79 86 W 7 9549 7032 4382 Blue 16
3 PM Thu 80 85 W 8 8766 6325 3675 Blue 15
4 PM Thu 79 82 W 9 6362 5386 2736 Blue 12
5 PM Thu 77 78 W 10 5093 3833 1183 Blue 8
6 PM Thu 75 75 W 9 3851 2918 268 Blue 5
7 PM Thu 73 73 W 7 3123 2650 0 Blue 3
8 PM Thu 70 70 N 3 2526 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 67 67 N 3 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 65 65 N 3 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 62 62 N 3 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 61 61 N 2 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 61 61 N 2 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 60 60 N 1 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 60 60 N 2 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 59 59 N 1 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 59 59 NW 1 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 60 60 W 1 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 62 62 SW 1 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 64 65 SW 1 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 68 71 S 1 2718 2650 0 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 71 76 E 1 4268 3119 469 Blue 6
11 AM Fri 74 80 NE 2 5733 4651 2001 Blue 10
12 Noon Fri 76 83 N 5 7194 5701 3051 Blue 13
1 PM Fri 78 85 NW 6 8766 6325 3675 Blue 15
2 PM Fri 77 84 W 8 8006 6014 3364 Blue 14
3 PM Fri 78 83 W 10 7194 5701 3051 Blue 13
4 PM Fri 76 79 W 12 5414 4246 1596 Blue 9
5 PM Fri 75 76 W 13 4268 3119 469 Blue 6
6 PM Fri 73 73 W 10 3123 2650 0 Blue 3
7 PM Fri 72 72 NW 8 2921 2650 0 Blue 2
8 PM Fri 69 69 N 5 2423 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 67 67 N 3 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 64 64 N 3 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 62 62 N 2 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 61 61 N 2 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 61 61 NW 1 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 60 60 NW 1 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 59 59 NW 1 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 58 58 NW 2 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 57 57 NW 2 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 56 56 NW 2 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 56 56 N 2 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 58 59 N 2 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 62 65 N 2 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 66 70 NW 1 2526 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 70 76 NW 2 4268 3119 469 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 73 80 NW 6 5733 4651 2001 Blue 10
1 PM Sat 74 81 W 9 6049 5067 2417 Blue 11
2 PM Sat 75 81 W 13 6049 5067 2417 Blue 11
3 PM Sat 74 79 W 14 5414 4246 1596 Blue 9
4 PM Sat 75 78 W 15 5093 3833 1183 Blue 8
5 PM Sat 74 75 W 15 3851 2918 268 Blue 5
6 PM Sat 72 72 W 12 2921 2650 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sat 70 70 W 9 2526 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 67 67 W 6 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 65 65 NW 5 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 63 63 N 3 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 61 61 N 3 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 60 60 NW 3 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 59 59 SW 3 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 58 58 S 3 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 57 57 S 3 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 56 56 S 3 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 56 56 SW 3 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 56 56 SW 3 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 57 57 SW 3 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 59 59 S 7 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 62 64 S 7 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 65 68 S 7 2321 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 68 73 SW 7 3123 2650 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Sun 69 74 SW 7 3426 2717 67 Blue 4
1 PM Sun 70 76 SW 7 4268 3119 469 Blue 6
2 PM Sun 71 76 SW 14 4268 3119 469 Blue 6
3 PM Sun 72 76 SW 14 4268 3119 469 Blue 6
4 PM Sun 72 74 SW 14 3426 2717 67 Blue 4
5 PM Sun 71 72 SW 13 2921 2650 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sun 69 69 SW 13 2423 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 66 66 SW 13 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 62 62 SW 14 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 59 59 SW 14 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 57 57 SW 14 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 56 56 S 15 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 55 55 S 15 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 55 55 S 15 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 55 55 S 9 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 54 54 S 9 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 53 53 S 9 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 52 52 SW 10 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 52 52 SW 10 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 53 53 SW 10 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 54 54 S 6 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 54 55 S 6 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 55 57 S 6 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 56 59 SW 13 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 58 62 SW 13 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 60 64 SW 13 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 61 65 SW 13 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 60 63 SW 13 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 59 61 SW 13 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 57 58 SW 21 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 56 56 SW 21 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 55 55 SW 21 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 54 54 SW 15 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 54 54 SW 15 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 53 53 SW 15 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 53 53 SW 9 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 52 52 SW 9 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 52 52 SW 9 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 52 52 S 7 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 52 52 S 7 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 51 51 S 7 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 51 51 S 8 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 51 51 S 8 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 52 52 S 8 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 53 53 S 7 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 55 56 S 7 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 57 59 S 7 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 59 65 SW 10 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 60 67 SW 10 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 60 67 SW 10 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 60 66 SW 15 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 59 64 SW 15 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 58 61 SW 15 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 56 57 SW 16 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 55 55 SW 16 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 54 54 SW 16 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 53 53 W 14 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 52 52 W 14 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 52 52 W 14 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 52 52 SW 7 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 51 51 SW 7 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 51 51 SW 7 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 50 50 W 5 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 50 50 W 5 2300 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 49 49 W 5 2300 2650 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst