Detailed Predictions for: Lake Elsinore
Launch Altitude (f): 2650
LZ Altitude (f): 1350
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

17 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 59 59 W 6 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 58 58 W 5 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 57 57 W 3 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 58 58 S 3 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 62 63 SE 3 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 67 69 S 5 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 71 74 SW 6 4517 3115 465 Blue 3
12 Noon Thu 73 77 SW 8 6152 4490 1840 Blue 6
1 PM Thu 73 77 SW 9 6152 4490 1840 Blue 6
2 PM Thu 74 78 SW 12 6479 4943 2293 Blue 7
3 PM Thu 73 76 SW 13 5577 4055 1405 Blue 5
4 PM Thu 72 73 SW 14 4076 2650 0 Blue 2
5 PM Thu 70 70 SW 16 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 67 67 SW 15 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 64 64 W 13 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 61 61 W 7 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 58 58 W 6 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 56 56 W 6 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 54 54 SW 5 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 53 53 SW 3 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 52 52 W 3 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 51 51 SW 3 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 51 51 SW 3 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 51 51 SW 3 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 51 51 NW 5 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 51 51 NW 7 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 51 51 NW 9 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 52 52 N 10 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 56 57 N 13 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 60 62 N 14 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 65 68 N 14 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 70 74 N 13 4517 3115 465 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 74 78 N 12 6479 4943 2293 Blue 7
2 PM Fri 76 79 N 10 6665 5521 2871 Blue 8
3 PM Fri 76 78 NW 10 6479 4943 2293 Blue 7
4 PM Fri 76 77 NW 12 6152 4490 1840 Blue 6
5 PM Fri 74 74 W 12 4517 3115 465 Blue 3
6 PM Fri 72 72 W 10 3626 2650 0 Blue 1
7 PM Fri 70 70 NW 8 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 68 68 NW 7 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 65 65 N 5 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 62 62 NE 5 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 60 60 E 3 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 59 59 E 3 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 58 58 S 5 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 58 58 S 6 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 56 56 S 6 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 55 55 SW 5 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 55 55 SW 5 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 56 56 S 5 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 57 57 S 3 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 60 60 S 3 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 63 64 E 3 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 67 69 NE 3 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 70 73 N 5 4076 2650 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sat 74 78 NW 6 6479 4943 2293 Blue 7
1 PM Sat 76 80 W 7 6949 6088 3438 Blue 9
2 PM Sat 76 80 W 8 6949 6088 3438 Blue 9
3 PM Sat 76 79 W 10 6665 5521 2871 Blue 8
4 PM Sat 75 76 W 12 5577 4055 1405 Blue 5
5 PM Sat 73 73 W 13 4076 2650 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sat 71 71 W 13 3128 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 70 70 W 12 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 68 68 W 9 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 65 65 NW 7 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 62 62 NW 6 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 60 60 NW 3 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 59 59 NW 3 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 58 58 NW 3 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 57 57 NW 5 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 56 56 NW 5 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 55 55 SW 5 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 55 55 SW 5 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 56 56 SW 5 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 59 59 SW 5 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 62 62 SE 9 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 65 66 SE 9 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 68 70 SE 9 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 71 74 N 10 4517 3115 465 Blue 3
12 Noon Sun 73 77 N 10 6152 4490 1840 Blue 6
1 PM Sun 76 80 N 10 6949 6088 3438 Blue 9
2 PM Sun 78 82 N 10 8044 6635 3985 Blue 11
3 PM Sun 81 84 N 10 8331 7895 5245 Blue 13
4 PM Sun 83 84 N 10 8331 7895 5245 Blue 13
5 PM Sun 82 82 N 9 8044 6635 3985 Blue 11
6 PM Sun 79 79 N 9 6665 5521 2871 Blue 8
7 PM Sun 74 74 N 9 4517 3115 465 Blue 3
8 PM Sun 68 68 SE 7 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 65 65 SE 7 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 64 64 SE 7 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 63 63 NE 7 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 62 62 NE 7 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 61 61 NE 7 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 60 60 NE 9 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 59 59 NE 9 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 59 59 NE 9 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 58 58 NE 13 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 58 58 NE 13 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 59 59 NE 13 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 61 61 NE 13 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 66 67 NE 13 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 72 74 NE 13 4517 3115 465 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 78 81 NE 9 7929 6456 3806 Blue 10
12 Noon Mon 83 87 NE 9 8855 8299 5649 Blue 16
1 PM Mon 86 90 NE 9 9411 8820 6170 Blue 19
2 PM Mon 86 90 N 8 9411 8820 6170 Blue 19
3 PM Mon 86 89 N 8 9142 8646 5996 Blue 18
4 PM Mon 84 85 N 8 8506 8024 5374 Blue 14
5 PM Mon 82 82 W 12 8044 6635 3985 Blue 11
6 PM Mon 80 80 W 12 6949 6088 3438 Blue 9
7 PM Mon 78 78 W 12 6479 4943 2293 Blue 7
8 PM Mon 75 75 SE 6 4985 3611 961 Blue 4
9 PM Mon 72 72 SE 6 3626 2650 0 Blue 1
10 PM Mon 68 68 SE 6 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 65 65 NE 6 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 63 63 NE 6 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 61 61 NE 6 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 60 60 N 8 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 60 60 N 8 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 60 60 N 8 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 60 60 N 9 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 60 60 N 9 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 61 61 N 9 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 63 63 N 7 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 66 67 N 7 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 72 74 N 7 4517 3115 465 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 77 80 N 6 6949 6088 3438 Blue 9
12 Noon Tue 82 86 N 6 8681 8138 5488 Blue 15
1 PM Tue 86 90 N 6 9411 8820 6170 Blue 19
2 PM Tue 87 91 NW 6 9744 8987 6337 Blue 20
3 PM Tue 87 90 NW 6 9411 8820 6170 Blue 19
4 PM Tue 85 86 NW 6 8681 8138 5488 Blue 15
5 PM Tue 82 82 W 13 8044 6635 3985 Blue 11
6 PM Tue 80 80 W 13 6949 6088 3438 Blue 9
7 PM Tue 78 78 W 13 6479 4943 2293 Blue 7
8 PM Tue 76 76 NW 6 5577 4055 1405 Blue 5
9 PM Tue 72 72 NW 6 3626 2650 0 Blue 1
10 PM Tue 69 69 NW 6 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 66 66 NW 2 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 64 64 NW 2 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 63 63 NW 2 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 62 62 NW 5 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 61 61 NW 5 2451 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 60 60 NW 5 2451 2650 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst