Detailed Predictions for: Lake Elsinore
Launch Altitude (f): 2650
LZ Altitude (f): 1350
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

15 JUN 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 55 55 W 1 3171 2650 0 White 3
6 AM Sat 55 55 W 1 3171 2650 0 White 3
7 AM Sat 58 58 W 1 3430 3359 709 Blue 6
8 AM Sat 62 62 NW 1 3515 3451 801 Blue 10
9 AM Sat 65 66 N 1 3649 3540 890 Blue 14
10 AM Sat 69 71 NE 2 3871 3720 1070 Blue 19
11 AM Sat 73 79 NE 2 4382 4175 1525 Blue 27
12 Noon Sat 77 84 N 1 5039 4514 1864 Blue 32
1 PM Sat 78 85 NW 2 5257 4671 2021 Blue 33
2 PM Sat 79 86 W 5 5505 4828 2178 Blue 34
3 PM Sat 79 85 W 7 5257 4671 2021 Blue 33
4 PM Sat 79 83 W 7 4840 4446 1796 Blue 31
5 PM Sat 76 78 W 9 4314 4107 1457 Blue 26
6 PM Sat 72 73 W 9 3979 3815 1165 Blue 21
7 PM Sat 68 68 W 8 3721 3612 962 Blue 16
8 PM Sat 67 67 NW 5 3685 3576 926 Blue 15
9 PM Sat 64 64 N 5 3577 3493 843 Blue 12
10 PM Sat 62 62 N 5 3515 3451 801 Blue 10
11 PM Sat 60 60 N 5 3473 3408 758 Blue 8
12 Midnight Sun 60 60 N 3 3473 3408 758 Blue 8
1 AM Sun 60 60 N 3 3473 3408 758 Blue 8
2 AM Sun 58 58 N 2 3430 3359 709 Blue 6
3 AM Sun 56 56 N 1 3388 2914 264 Blue 4
4 AM Sun 57 57 N 1 3409 3317 667 Blue 5
5 AM Sun 56 56 N 1 3388 2914 264 Blue 4
6 AM Sun 56 56 N 1 3388 2914 264 Blue 4
7 AM Sun 59 59 N 1 3451 3387 737 Blue 7
8 AM Sun 63 63 E 1 3541 3472 822 Blue 11
9 AM Sun 66 67 E 1 3685 3576 926 Blue 15
10 AM Sun 70 72 NE 2 3925 3761 1111 Blue 20
11 AM Sun 74 79 NE 2 4382 4175 1525 Blue 27
12 Noon Sun 77 83 NE 2 4840 4446 1796 Blue 31
1 PM Sun 79 86 NW 2 5505 4828 2178 Blue 34
2 PM Sun 79 85 W 8 5257 4671 2021 Blue 33
3 PM Sun 79 84 W 9 5039 4514 1864 Blue 32
4 PM Sun 79 82 W 10 4682 4378 1728 Blue 30
5 PM Sun 76 78 SW 13 4314 4107 1457 Blue 26
6 PM Sun 72 73 SW 12 3979 3815 1165 Blue 21
7 PM Sun 68 68 W 9 3721 3612 962 Blue 16
8 PM Sun 66 66 W 6 3649 3540 890 Blue 14
9 PM Sun 64 64 NW 2 3577 3493 843 Blue 12
10 PM Sun 61 61 NW 2 3494 3430 780 Blue 9
11 PM Sun 59 59 NW 2 3451 3387 737 Blue 7
12 Midnight Mon 59 59 N 2 3451 3387 737 Blue 7
1 AM Mon 59 59 N 2 3451 3387 737 Blue 7
2 AM Mon 57 57 W 1 3409 3317 667 Blue 5
3 AM Mon 55 55 W 1 3171 2650 0 White 3
4 AM Mon 56 56 W 1 3388 2914 264 Blue 4
5 AM Mon 55 55 W 1 3171 2650 0 White 3
6 AM Mon 55 55 NW 1 3171 2650 0 White 3
7 AM Mon 58 58 W 1 3430 3359 709 Blue 6
8 AM Mon 61 61 SE 1 3494 3430 780 Blue 9
9 AM Mon 64 65 SE 1 3613 3515 865 Blue 13
10 AM Mon 68 70 E 2 3817 3684 1034 Blue 18
11 AM Mon 71 77 NE 1 4246 4039 1389 Blue 25
12 Noon Mon 74 81 NW 1 4524 4310 1660 Blue 29
1 PM Mon 76 84 W 5 5039 4514 1864 Blue 32
2 PM Mon 76 83 SW 12 4840 4446 1796 Blue 31
3 PM Mon 76 82 SW 14 4682 4378 1728 Blue 30
4 PM Mon 76 80 SW 14 4450 4243 1593 Blue 28
5 PM Mon 74 76 SW 13 4179 3977 1327 Blue 24
6 PM Mon 70 71 SW 10 3871 3720 1070 Blue 19
7 PM Mon 66 66 W 8 3649 3540 890 Blue 14
8 PM Mon 65 65 NW 5 3613 3515 865 Blue 13
9 PM Mon 62 62 N 6 3515 3451 801 Blue 10
10 PM Mon 61 61 N 5 3494 3430 780 Blue 9
11 PM Mon 59 59 N 5 3451 3387 737 Blue 7
12 Midnight Tue 58 58 N 3 3430 3359 709 Blue 6
1 AM Tue 58 58 N 2 3430 3359 709 Blue 6
2 AM Tue 57 57 NE 2 3409 3317 667 Blue 5
3 AM Tue 55 55 NE 3 3171 2650 0 White 3
4 AM Tue 56 56 N 2 3388 2914 264 Blue 4
5 AM Tue 55 55 NE 2 3171 2650 0 White 3
6 AM Tue 55 55 NE 2 3171 2650 0 White 3
7 AM Tue 58 58 NE 2 3430 3359 709 Blue 6
8 AM Tue 62 63 W 2 3541 3472 822 Blue 11
9 AM Tue 66 69 W 2 3764 3648 998 Blue 17
10 AM Tue 70 75 W 2 4111 3923 1273 Blue 23
11 AM Tue 74 81 SW 2 4524 4310 1660 Blue 29
12 Noon Tue 78 86 SW 2 5505 4828 2178 Blue 34
1 PM Tue 79 87 SW 2 5741 5021 2371 Blue 35
2 PM Tue 80 88 W 9 5853 5238 2588 Blue 36
3 PM Tue 81 87 W 9 5741 5021 2371 Blue 35
4 PM Tue 80 84 W 9 5039 4514 1864 Blue 32
5 PM Tue 77 79 SW 12 4382 4175 1525 Blue 27
6 PM Tue 74 75 SW 12 4111 3923 1273 Blue 23
7 PM Tue 70 70 SW 12 3817 3684 1034 Blue 18
8 PM Tue 68 68 W 5 3721 3612 962 Blue 16
9 PM Tue 66 66 W 5 3649 3540 890 Blue 14
10 PM Tue 64 64 W 5 3577 3493 843 Blue 12
11 PM Tue 62 62 N 5 3515 3451 801 Blue 10
12 Midnight Wed 61 61 N 5 3494 3430 780 Blue 9
1 AM Wed 62 62 N 5 3515 3451 801 Blue 10
2 AM Wed 60 60 N 3 3473 3408 758 Blue 8
3 AM Wed 58 58 N 3 3430 3359 709 Blue 6
4 AM Wed 59 59 N 3 3451 3387 737 Blue 7
5 AM Wed 58 58 N 2 3430 3359 709 Blue 6
6 AM Wed 58 58 N 2 3430 3359 709 Blue 6
7 AM Wed 61 61 N 2 3494 3430 780 Blue 9
8 AM Wed 65 66 W 1 3649 3540 890 Blue 14
9 AM Wed 68 71 W 1 3871 3720 1070 Blue 19
10 AM Wed 72 77 W 1 4246 4039 1389 Blue 25
11 AM Wed 76 83 W 3 4840 4446 1796 Blue 31
12 Noon Wed 79 87 W 3 5741 5021 2371 Blue 35
1 PM Wed 81 89 W 3 5966 5481 2831 Blue 37
2 PM Wed 81 89 W 10 5966 5481 2831 Blue 37
3 PM Wed 82 88 W 10 5853 5238 2588 Blue 36
4 PM Wed 81 85 W 10 5257 4671 2021 Blue 33
5 PM Wed 78 80 W 12 4450 4243 1593 Blue 28
6 PM Wed 75 76 W 12 4179 3977 1327 Blue 24
7 PM Wed 70 70 W 12 3817 3684 1034 Blue 18
8 PM Wed 70 70 W 5 3817 3684 1034 Blue 18
9 PM Wed 67 67 W 5 3685 3576 926 Blue 15
10 PM Wed 65 65 W 5 3613 3515 865 Blue 13
11 PM Wed 63 63 NW 2 3541 3472 822 Blue 11
12 Midnight Thu 62 62 NW 2 3515 3451 801 Blue 10
1 AM Thu 62 62 NW 2 3515 3451 801 Blue 10
2 AM Thu 61 61 W 1 3494 3430 780 Blue 9
3 AM Thu 59 59 W 1 3451 3387 737 Blue 7
4 AM Thu 60 60 W 1 3473 3408 758 Blue 8
5 AM Thu 59 59 W 3 3451 3387 737 Blue 7
6 AM Thu 59 59 W 3 3451 3387 737 Blue 7
7 AM Thu 62 62 W 3 3515 3451 801 Blue 10
8 AM Thu 65 66 W 2 3649 3540 890 Blue 14
9 AM Thu 67 70 W 2 3817 3684 1034 Blue 18
10 AM Thu 70 75 W 2 4111 3923 1273 Blue 23
11 AM Thu 74 81 SW 6 4524 4310 1660 Blue 29
12 Noon Thu 76 84 SW 6 5039 4514 1864 Blue 32
1 PM Thu 78 86 SW 6 5505 4828 2178 Blue 34
2 PM Thu 78 86 W 12 5505 4828 2178 Blue 34
3 PM Thu 79 85 W 12 5257 4671 2021 Blue 33
4 PM Thu 78 82 W 12 4682 4378 1728 Blue 30
5 PM Thu 76 78 W 13 4314 4107 1457 Blue 26
6 PM Thu 72 73 W 13 3979 3815 1165 Blue 21
7 PM Thu 68 68 W 13 3721 3612 962 Blue 16
8 PM Thu 68 68 W 6 3721 3612 962 Blue 16
9 PM Thu 65 65 W 6 3613 3515 865 Blue 13
10 PM Thu 63 63 W 6 3541 3472 822 Blue 11
11 PM Thu 62 62 S 1 3515 3451 801 Blue 10
12 Midnight Fri 61 61 S 1 3494 3430 780 Blue 9
1 AM Fri 61 61 S 1 3494 3430 780 Blue 9
2 AM Fri 60 60 S 2 3473 3408 758 Blue 8
3 AM Fri 58 58 S 2 3430 3359 709 Blue 6
4 AM Fri 59 59 S 2 3451 3387 737 Blue 7

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst