Detailed Predictions for: Lake Elsinore
Launch Altitude (f): 2650
LZ Altitude (f): 1350
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

24 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 66 66 E 0 2333 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 66 66 NE 0 2333 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 68 68 NE 0 2333 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 71 71 E 1 2333 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 75 77 E 2 2969 2650 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 80 84 E 2 4530 3942 1292 Blue 8
11 AM Sat 85 91 SE 5 7112 6368 3718 Blue 15
12 Noon Sat 89 96 SE 3 11032 7627 4977 Blue 20
1 PM Sat 91 99 S 3 12096 10939 8289 Blue 23
2 PM Sat 93 100 W 6 12642 11275 8625 Blue 24
3 PM Sat 92 98 W 8 11706 8185 5535 Blue 22
4 PM Sat 92 96 W 9 11032 7627 4977 Blue 20
5 PM Sat 90 92 W 10 7389 6642 3992 Blue 16
6 PM Sat 86 86 W 9 5494 4339 1689 Blue 10
7 PM Sat 82 82 W 8 4075 3490 840 Blue 6
8 PM Sat 79 79 W 3 3496 2660 10 Blue 3
9 PM Sat 75 75 NW 2 2429 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 73 73 NW 3 2333 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 70 70 N 3 2333 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 69 69 N 3 2333 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 68 68 N 2 2333 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 67 67 NW 1 2333 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 67 67 W 1 2333 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 67 67 SW 1 2333 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 68 68 S 1 2333 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 69 69 S 2 2333 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 70 70 S 1 2333 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 73 73 SE 1 2333 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 77 79 E 1 3496 2660 10 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 82 86 E 2 5494 4339 1689 Blue 10
11 AM Sun 86 92 E 2 7389 6642 3992 Blue 16
12 Noon Sun 90 97 NE 2 11371 7907 5257 Blue 21
1 PM Sun 93 100 N 2 12642 11275 8625 Blue 24
2 PM Sun 93 100 W 7 12642 11275 8625 Blue 24
3 PM Sun 93 98 W 9 11706 8185 5535 Blue 22
4 PM Sun 91 95 W 10 8916 7345 4695 Blue 19
5 PM Sun 89 90 W 14 6892 5914 3264 Blue 14
6 PM Sun 87 87 W 12 5963 4519 1869 Blue 11
7 PM Sun 84 84 W 9 4530 3942 1292 Blue 8
8 PM Sun 82 82 NW 2 4075 3490 840 Blue 6
9 PM Sun 79 79 N 3 3496 2660 10 Blue 3
10 PM Sun 76 76 N 3 2662 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 73 73 N 3 2333 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 72 72 N 2 2333 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 71 71 N 2 2333 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 70 70 NW 1 2333 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 69 69 W 1 2333 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 68 68 W 1 2333 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 68 68 W 2 2333 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 69 69 W 2 2333 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 70 70 W 2 2333 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 74 74 NW 2 2333 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 78 79 N 1 3496 2660 10 Blue 3
10 AM Mon 83 85 NE 1 5014 4069 1419 Blue 9
11 AM Mon 88 92 NE 2 7389 6642 3992 Blue 16
12 Noon Mon 91 96 N 2 11032 7627 4977 Blue 20
1 PM Mon 93 98 NW 2 11706 8185 5535 Blue 22
2 PM Mon 93 98 W 9 11706 8185 5535 Blue 22
3 PM Mon 93 97 W 13 11371 7907 5257 Blue 21
4 PM Mon 91 93 W 14 7672 6861 4211 Blue 17
5 PM Mon 89 90 W 13 6892 5914 3264 Blue 14
6 PM Mon 87 87 W 10 5963 4519 1869 Blue 11
7 PM Mon 85 85 SW 7 5014 4069 1419 Blue 9
8 PM Mon 82 82 W 2 4075 3490 840 Blue 6
9 PM Mon 78 78 N 3 3275 2650 0 Blue 2
10 PM Mon 74 74 N 5 2333 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 71 71 N 5 2333 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 69 69 N 3 2333 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 68 68 N 3 2333 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 68 68 N 2 2333 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 68 68 N 1 2333 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 67 67 N 1 2333 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 67 67 SE 2 2333 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 69 69 SE 2 2333 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 71 71 SE 2 2333 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 75 75 W 2 2429 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 79 81 W 2 3947 3268 618 Blue 5
10 AM Tue 84 88 W 2 6423 4977 2327 Blue 12
11 AM Tue 88 94 W 5 7954 7080 4430 Blue 18
12 Noon Tue 91 98 W 5 11706 8185 5535 Blue 22
1 PM Tue 93 101 W 5 12816 11608 8958 Blue 25
2 PM Tue 92 99 SW 8 12096 10939 8289 Blue 23
3 PM Tue 92 98 SW 8 11706 8185 5535 Blue 22
4 PM Tue 91 95 SW 8 8916 7345 4695 Blue 19
5 PM Tue 89 91 SW 10 7112 6368 3718 Blue 15
6 PM Tue 86 86 SW 10 5494 4339 1689 Blue 10
7 PM Tue 84 84 SW 10 4530 3942 1292 Blue 8
8 PM Tue 81 81 W 6 3947 3268 618 Blue 5
9 PM Tue 78 78 W 6 3275 2650 0 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 75 75 W 6 2429 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 73 73 S 2 2333 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 71 71 S 2 2333 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 70 70 S 2 2333 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 69 69 S 2 2333 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 68 68 S 2 2333 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 67 67 S 2 2333 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 67 67 S 2 2333 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 67 67 S 2 2333 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 69 69 S 2 2333 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 71 71 W 2 2333 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 76 78 W 2 3275 2650 0 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 81 85 W 2 5014 4069 1419 Blue 9
11 AM Wed 86 92 SW 6 7389 6642 3992 Blue 16
12 Noon Wed 90 97 SW 6 11371 7907 5257 Blue 21
1 PM Wed 92 100 SW 6 12642 11275 8625 Blue 24
2 PM Wed 91 98 SW 8 11706 8185 5535 Blue 22
3 PM Wed 91 97 SW 8 11371 7907 5257 Blue 21
4 PM Wed 90 94 SW 8 7954 7080 4430 Blue 18
5 PM Wed 88 90 SW 12 6892 5914 3264 Blue 14
6 PM Wed 87 87 SW 12 5963 4519 1869 Blue 11
7 PM Wed 85 85 SW 12 5014 4069 1419 Blue 9
8 PM Wed 83 83 S 6 4350 3697 1047 Blue 7
9 PM Wed 80 80 S 6 3718 2965 315 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 76 76 S 6 2662 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 72 72 S 2 2333 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 70 70 S 2 2333 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 69 69 S 2 2333 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 68 68 N 2 2333 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 67 67 N 2 2333 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 67 67 N 2 2333 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 67 67 N 2 2333 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 68 68 N 2 2333 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 69 69 N 2 2333 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 72 72 S 2 2333 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 76 78 S 2 3275 2650 0 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 82 86 S 2 5494 4339 1689 Blue 10
11 AM Thu 87 93 SW 5 7672 6861 4211 Blue 17
12 Noon Thu 90 97 SW 5 11371 7907 5257 Blue 21
1 PM Thu 92 99 SW 5 12096 10939 8289 Blue 23
2 PM Thu 92 99 W 8 12096 10939 8289 Blue 23
3 PM Thu 92 98 W 8 11706 8185 5535 Blue 22
4 PM Thu 91 95 W 8 8916 7345 4695 Blue 19
5 PM Thu 89 91 W 13 7112 6368 3718 Blue 15
6 PM Thu 88 88 W 13 6423 4977 2327 Blue 12
7 PM Thu 86 86 W 13 5494 4339 1689 Blue 10
8 PM Thu 84 84 SW 6 4530 3942 1292 Blue 8
9 PM Thu 80 80 SW 6 3718 2965 315 Blue 4
10 PM Thu 76 76 SW 6 2662 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 73 73 S 2 2333 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 71 71 S 2 2333 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 70 70 S 2 2333 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 69 69 NE 2 2333 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 68 68 NE 2 2333 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 68 68 NE 2 2333 2650 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst