Detailed Predictions for: Lake Elsinore
Launch Altitude (f): 2650
LZ Altitude (f): 1350
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 AUG 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 69 69 NW 1 2433 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 69 69 NW 1 2433 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 70 70 NW 1 2483 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 74 74 NW 0 2806 2650 0 Blue 3
9 AM Sat 78 80 NE 1 3388 3142 492 Blue 9
10 AM Sat 82 86 NE 1 5023 3958 1308 Blue 15
11 AM Sat 86 91 NE 2 7649 5530 2880 Blue 20
12 Noon Sat 88 94 N 2 8757 7585 4935 Blue 23
1 PM Sat 90 97 W 2 9821 8714 6064 White 26
2 PM Sat 89 95 W 9 8976 7982 5332 Blue 24
3 PM Sat 89 94 W 12 8757 7585 4935 Blue 23
4 PM Sat 88 92 W 10 8050 5780 3130 Blue 21
5 PM Sat 86 88 W 10 5554 4657 2007 Blue 17
6 PM Sat 84 84 W 9 4334 3556 906 Blue 13
7 PM Sat 81 81 W 7 3562 3250 600 Blue 10
8 PM Sat 78 78 N 3 3252 2916 266 Blue 7
9 PM Sat 76 76 NE 3 3031 2719 69 Blue 5
10 PM Sat 75 75 NE 2 2918 2650 0 Blue 4
11 PM Sat 73 73 N 1 2719 2650 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sun 72 72 N 1 2621 2650 0 Blue 1
1 AM Sun 72 72 N 1 2621 2650 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sun 71 71 N 1 2532 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 70 70 N 1 2483 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 70 70 NW 1 2483 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 69 69 NW 1 2433 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 69 69 NW 1 2433 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 70 70 NW 1 2483 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 75 75 N 1 2918 2650 0 Blue 4
9 AM Sun 80 82 N 1 3765 3318 668 Blue 11
10 AM Sun 84 88 NE 2 5554 4657 2007 Blue 17
11 AM Sun 88 93 NE 3 8445 6913 4263 Blue 22
12 Noon Sun 91 97 NE 3 9821 8714 6064 White 26
1 PM Sun 93 100 N 2 10495 10232 7582 White 29
2 PM Sun 92 98 W 6 10035 8932 6282 White 27
3 PM Sun 92 97 W 7 9821 8714 6064 White 26
4 PM Sun 91 95 W 8 8976 7982 5332 Blue 24
5 PM Sun 89 91 W 9 7649 5530 2880 Blue 20
6 PM Sun 87 87 W 8 5300 4314 1664 Blue 16
7 PM Sun 83 83 W 7 3967 3386 736 Blue 12
8 PM Sun 80 80 N 3 3388 3142 492 Blue 9
9 PM Sun 78 78 N 5 3252 2916 266 Blue 7
10 PM Sun 76 76 N 3 3031 2719 69 Blue 5
11 PM Sun 74 74 N 3 2806 2650 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Mon 73 73 N 2 2719 2650 0 Blue 2
1 AM Mon 73 73 N 2 2719 2650 0 Blue 2
2 AM Mon 72 72 E 0 2621 2650 0 Blue 1
3 AM Mon 72 72 E 1 2621 2650 0 Blue 1
4 AM Mon 71 71 SE 0 2532 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 70 70 S 0 2483 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 70 70 S 1 2483 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 71 71 S 1 2532 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 75 75 S 2 2918 2650 0 Blue 4
9 AM Mon 79 81 SE 2 3562 3250 600 Blue 10
10 AM Mon 83 86 SE 1 5023 3958 1308 Blue 15
11 AM Mon 86 91 SW 1 7649 5530 2880 Blue 20
12 Noon Mon 88 94 SW 2 8757 7585 4935 Blue 23
1 PM Mon 90 96 SW 7 9195 8373 5723 Blue 25
2 PM Mon 89 95 SW 13 8976 7982 5332 Blue 24
3 PM Mon 89 94 SW 15 8757 7585 4935 Blue 23
4 PM Mon 88 91 SW 15 7649 5530 2880 Blue 20
5 PM Mon 86 87 SW 14 5300 4314 1664 Blue 16
6 PM Mon 84 84 SW 13 4334 3556 906 Blue 13
7 PM Mon 81 81 SW 13 3562 3250 600 Blue 10
8 PM Mon 79 79 SW 3 3320 3029 379 Blue 8
9 PM Mon 77 77 SW 3 3144 2806 156 Blue 6
10 PM Mon 75 75 SW 3 2918 2650 0 Blue 4
11 PM Mon 73 73 N 3 2719 2650 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Tue 72 72 N 3 2621 2650 0 Blue 1
1 AM Tue 72 72 N 3 2621 2650 0 Blue 1
2 AM Tue 71 71 N 5 2532 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 71 71 N 5 2532 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 71 71 N 5 2532 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 70 70 N 3 2483 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 70 70 N 3 2483 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 71 71 N 3 2532 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 76 76 N 3 3031 2719 69 Blue 5
9 AM Tue 81 83 N 3 3967 3386 736 Blue 12
10 AM Tue 86 90 N 3 7064 5279 2629 Blue 19
11 AM Tue 90 95 N 2 8976 7982 5332 Blue 24
12 Noon Tue 93 99 N 2 10266 9149 6499 White 28
1 PM Tue 95 102 N 2 10921 10921 8271 White 31
2 PM Tue 95 101 W 10 10711 10694 8044 White 30
3 PM Tue 94 99 W 10 10266 9149 6499 White 28
4 PM Tue 93 96 W 10 9195 8373 5723 Blue 25
5 PM Tue 91 93 W 16 8445 6913 4263 Blue 22
6 PM Tue 89 89 W 16 5881 4997 2347 Blue 18
7 PM Tue 85 85 W 16 4680 3757 1107 Blue 14
8 PM Tue 82 82 NW 3 3765 3318 668 Blue 11
9 PM Tue 80 80 NW 3 3388 3142 492 Blue 9
10 PM Tue 78 78 NW 3 3252 2916 266 Blue 7
11 PM Tue 76 76 N 3 3031 2719 69 Blue 5
12 Midnight Wed 75 75 N 3 2918 2650 0 Blue 4
1 AM Wed 75 75 N 3 2918 2650 0 Blue 4
2 AM Wed 74 74 N 3 2806 2650 0 Blue 3
3 AM Wed 74 74 N 3 2806 2650 0 Blue 3
4 AM Wed 73 73 N 3 2719 2650 0 Blue 2
5 AM Wed 72 72 N 3 2621 2650 0 Blue 1
6 AM Wed 72 72 N 3 2621 2650 0 Blue 1
7 AM Wed 73 73 N 3 2719 2650 0 Blue 2
8 AM Wed 78 78 N 6 3252 2916 266 Blue 7
9 AM Wed 83 85 N 6 4680 3757 1107 Blue 14
10 AM Wed 89 92 N 6 8050 5780 3130 Blue 21
11 AM Wed 92 96 N 1 9195 8373 5723 Blue 25
12 Noon Wed 96 101 N 1 10711 10694 8044 White 30
1 PM Wed 98 103 N 1 11127 11127 8477 White 32
2 PM Wed 98 103 SW 13 11127 11127 8477 White 32
3 PM Wed 97 101 SW 13 10711 10694 8044 White 30
4 PM Wed 96 99 SW 13 10266 9149 6499 White 28
5 PM Wed 94 95 W 16 8976 7982 5332 Blue 24
6 PM Wed 91 91 W 16 7649 5530 2880 Blue 20
7 PM Wed 87 87 W 16 5300 4314 1664 Blue 16
8 PM Wed 83 83 W 12 3967 3386 736 Blue 12
9 PM Wed 81 81 W 12 3562 3250 600 Blue 10
10 PM Wed 79 79 W 12 3320 3029 379 Blue 8
11 PM Wed 76 76 NW 5 3031 2719 69 Blue 5
12 Midnight Thu 75 75 NW 5 2918 2650 0 Blue 4
1 AM Thu 75 75 NW 5 2918 2650 0 Blue 4
2 AM Thu 74 74 NW 2 2806 2650 0 Blue 3
3 AM Thu 73 73 NW 2 2719 2650 0 Blue 2
4 AM Thu 73 73 NW 2 2719 2650 0 Blue 2
5 AM Thu 72 72 NW 3 2621 2650 0 Blue 1
6 AM Thu 72 72 NW 3 2621 2650 0 Blue 1
7 AM Thu 72 72 NW 3 2621 2650 0 Blue 1
8 AM Thu 76 76 SW 1 3031 2719 69 Blue 5
9 AM Thu 80 81 SW 1 3562 3250 600 Blue 10
10 AM Thu 85 88 SW 1 5554 4657 2007 Blue 17
11 AM Thu 88 92 SW 7 8050 5780 3130 Blue 21
12 Noon Thu 90 95 SW 7 8976 7982 5332 Blue 24
1 PM Thu 92 97 SW 7 9821 8714 6064 White 26
2 PM Thu 92 97 SW 18 9821 8714 6064 White 26
3 PM Thu 91 95 SW 18 8976 7982 5332 Blue 24
4 PM Thu 90 92 SW 18 8050 5780 3130 Blue 21
5 PM Thu 88 89 SW 18 5881 4997 2347 Blue 18
6 PM Thu 86 86 SW 18 5023 3958 1308 Blue 15
7 PM Thu 82 82 SW 18 3765 3318 668 Blue 11
8 PM Thu 80 80 W 8 3388 3142 492 Blue 9
9 PM Thu 77 77 W 8 3144 2806 156 Blue 6
10 PM Thu 76 76 W 8 3031 2719 69 Blue 5
11 PM Thu 74 74 NW 2 2806 2650 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Fri 73 73 NW 2 2719 2650 0 Blue 2
1 AM Fri 72 72 NW 2 2621 2650 0 Blue 1
2 AM Fri 72 72 W 1 2621 2650 0 Blue 1
3 AM Fri 71 71 W 1 2532 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 71 71 W 1 2532 2650 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst