Detailed Predictions for: Lake Elsinore
Launch Altitude (f): 2650
LZ Altitude (f): 1350
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

23 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 50 50 W 3 2457 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 50 50 W 5 2457 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 50 50 W 3 2457 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 51 51 N 2 2457 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 55 56 N 3 2457 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 60 62 N 5 4842 3520 870 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 63 67 N 7 6110 5098 2448 Blue 11
12 Noon Sat 66 71 N 7 6977 6444 3794 White 15
1 PM Sat 67 72 N 7 7192 6817 4167 White 16
2 PM Sat 67 72 NW 8 7192 6817 4167 White 16
3 PM Sat 67 71 W 9 6977 6444 3794 White 15
4 PM Sat 67 69 W 10 6546 5682 3032 White 13
5 PM Sat 66 67 W 20 6110 5098 2448 Blue 11
6 PM Sat 62 62 W 20 4842 3520 870 Blue 6
7 PM Sat 60 60 W 18 4105 2830 180 Blue 4
8 PM Sat 59 59 W 9 3526 2650 0 Blue 3
9 PM Sat 58 58 W 8 3205 2650 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sat 56 56 W 7 2457 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 56 56 N 2 2457 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 55 55 N 2 2457 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 56 56 N 3 2457 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 55 55 NW 7 2457 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 55 55 N 7 2457 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 55 55 N 8 2457 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 54 54 N 9 2457 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 54 54 N 9 2457 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 54 54 N 9 2457 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 56 56 N 9 2457 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 60 61 N 9 4464 3202 552 Blue 5
10 AM Sun 66 69 N 9 6546 5682 3032 White 13
11 AM Sun 70 75 N 7 7834 7834 5184 White 19
12 Noon Sun 74 80 N 7 8890 8890 6240 White 24
1 PM Sun 75 81 N 7 9100 9100 6450 White 25
2 PM Sun 75 80 N 8 8890 8890 6240 White 24
3 PM Sun 75 79 NW 7 8681 8681 6031 White 23
4 PM Sun 75 77 NW 8 8261 8261 5611 White 21
5 PM Sun 73 74 W 17 7621 7549 4899 White 18
6 PM Sun 68 68 W 17 6330 5322 2672 White 12
7 PM Sun 66 66 W 16 5722 4951 2301 Blue 10
8 PM Sun 63 63 NW 10 4960 4047 1397 Blue 7
9 PM Sun 62 62 NW 10 4842 3520 870 Blue 6
10 PM Sun 60 60 NW 8 4105 2830 180 Blue 4
11 PM Sun 59 59 NE 3 3526 2650 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Mon 59 59 NE 2 3526 2650 0 Blue 3
1 AM Mon 59 59 N 2 3526 2650 0 Blue 3
2 AM Mon 58 58 N 5 3205 2650 0 Blue 2
3 AM Mon 58 58 N 7 3205 2650 0 Blue 2
4 AM Mon 58 58 N 9 3205 2650 0 Blue 2
5 AM Mon 57 57 N 13 2832 2650 0 Blue 1
6 AM Mon 57 57 N 13 2832 2650 0 Blue 1
7 AM Mon 57 57 N 13 2832 2650 0 Blue 1
8 AM Mon 58 58 N 16 3205 2650 0 Blue 2
9 AM Mon 64 65 N 16 5342 4833 2183 Blue 9
10 AM Mon 70 73 N 16 7406 7186 4536 White 17
11 AM Mon 74 79 N 21 8681 8681 6031 White 23
12 Noon Mon 78 84 N 21 9734 9734 7084 White 28
1 PM Mon 79 85 N 21 9945 9945 7295 White 29
2 PM Mon 79 84 N 22 9734 9734 7084 White 28
3 PM Mon 79 83 N 22 9524 9524 6874 White 27
4 PM Mon 79 81 N 22 9100 9100 6450 White 25
5 PM Mon 77 78 N 24 8472 8472 5822 White 22
6 PM Mon 71 71 N 24 6977 6444 3794 White 15
7 PM Mon 68 68 N 24 6330 5322 2672 White 12
8 PM Mon 66 66 N 12 5722 4951 2301 Blue 10
9 PM Mon 64 64 N 12 5117 4450 1800 Blue 8
10 PM Mon 63 63 N 12 4960 4047 1397 Blue 7
11 PM Mon 61 61 N 6 4464 3202 552 Blue 5
12 Midnight Tue 61 61 N 6 4464 3202 552 Blue 5
1 AM Tue 62 62 N 6 4842 3520 870 Blue 6
2 AM Tue 60 60 NW 9 4105 2830 180 Blue 4
3 AM Tue 60 60 NW 9 4105 2830 180 Blue 4
4 AM Tue 61 61 NW 9 4464 3202 552 Blue 5
5 AM Tue 60 60 N 13 4105 2830 180 Blue 4
6 AM Tue 59 59 N 13 3526 2650 0 Blue 3
7 AM Tue 59 59 N 13 3526 2650 0 Blue 3
8 AM Tue 61 61 N 9 4464 3202 552 Blue 5
9 AM Tue 66 67 N 9 6110 5098 2448 Blue 11
10 AM Tue 72 75 N 9 7834 7834 5184 White 19
11 AM Tue 77 81 N 10 9100 9100 6450 White 25
12 Noon Tue 80 85 N 10 9945 9945 7295 White 29
1 PM Tue 82 87 N 10 10358 10358 7708 White 31
2 PM Tue 83 88 N 7 10564 10564 7914 White 32
3 PM Tue 83 87 N 7 10358 10358 7708 White 31
4 PM Tue 82 84 N 7 9734 9734 7084 White 28
5 PM Tue 80 81 NW 16 9100 9100 6450 White 25
6 PM Tue 74 74 NW 16 7621 7549 4899 White 18
7 PM Tue 71 71 NW 16 6977 6444 3794 White 15
8 PM Tue 69 69 N 15 6546 5682 3032 White 13
9 PM Tue 67 67 N 15 6110 5098 2448 Blue 11
10 PM Tue 66 66 N 15 5722 4951 2301 Blue 10
11 PM Tue 64 64 N 5 5117 4450 1800 Blue 8
12 Midnight Wed 64 64 N 5 5117 4450 1800 Blue 8
1 AM Wed 65 65 N 5 5342 4833 2183 Blue 9
2 AM Wed 63 63 N 7 4960 4047 1397 Blue 7
3 AM Wed 63 63 N 7 4960 4047 1397 Blue 7
4 AM Wed 64 64 N 7 5117 4450 1800 Blue 8
5 AM Wed 62 62 N 6 4842 3520 870 Blue 6
6 AM Wed 62 62 N 6 4842 3520 870 Blue 6
7 AM Wed 62 62 N 6 4842 3520 870 Blue 6
8 AM Wed 64 64 N 12 5117 4450 1800 Blue 8
9 AM Wed 69 70 N 12 6761 6066 3416 White 14
10 AM Wed 74 77 N 12 8261 8261 5611 White 21
11 AM Wed 79 84 N 5 9734 9734 7084 White 28
12 Noon Wed 83 89 N 5 10769 10769 8119 White 33
1 PM Wed 84 90 N 5 10973 10973 8323 White 34
2 PM Wed 85 90 NW 6 10973 10973 8323 White 34
3 PM Wed 85 89 NW 6 10769 10769 8119 White 33
4 PM Wed 84 86 NW 6 10152 10152 7502 White 30
5 PM Wed 82 83 W 20 9524 9524 6874 White 27
6 PM Wed 76 76 W 20 8048 8048 5398 White 20
7 PM Wed 73 73 W 20 7406 7186 4536 White 17
8 PM Wed 71 71 N 15 6977 6444 3794 White 15
9 PM Wed 69 69 N 15 6546 5682 3032 White 13
10 PM Wed 68 68 N 15 6330 5322 2672 White 12
11 PM Wed 66 66 N 5 5722 4951 2301 Blue 10
12 Midnight Thu 66 66 N 5 5722 4951 2301 Blue 10
1 AM Thu 67 67 N 5 6110 5098 2448 Blue 11
2 AM Thu 65 65 N 6 5342 4833 2183 Blue 9
3 AM Thu 65 65 N 6 5342 4833 2183 Blue 9
4 AM Thu 66 66 N 6 5722 4951 2301 Blue 10
5 AM Thu 64 64 N 9 5117 4450 1800 Blue 8
6 AM Thu 64 64 N 9 5117 4450 1800 Blue 8
7 AM Thu 64 64 N 9 5117 4450 1800 Blue 8
8 AM Thu 66 66 N 10 5722 4951 2301 Blue 10
9 AM Thu 71 72 N 10 7192 6817 4167 White 16
10 AM Thu 76 79 N 10 8681 8681 6031 White 23
11 AM Thu 81 85 N 8 9945 9945 7295 White 29
12 Noon Thu 85 90 N 8 10973 10973 8323 White 34
1 PM Thu 86 92 N 8 11382 11382 8732 White 36
2 PM Thu 87 92 N 7 11382 11382 8732 White 36
3 PM Thu 87 91 N 7 11178 11178 8528 White 35
4 PM Thu 86 88 N 7 10564 10564 7914 White 32
5 PM Thu 83 84 W 16 9734 9734 7084 White 28
6 PM Thu 78 78 W 16 8472 8472 5822 White 22
7 PM Thu 75 75 W 16 7834 7834 5184 White 19
8 PM Thu 72 72 NW 15 7192 6817 4167 White 16
9 PM Thu 71 71 NW 15 6977 6444 3794 White 15
10 PM Thu 69 69 NW 15 6546 5682 3032 White 13
11 PM Thu 68 68 N 8 6330 5322 2672 White 12
12 Midnight Fri 67 67 N 8 6110 5098 2448 Blue 11
1 AM Fri 68 68 N 8 6330 5322 2672 White 12
2 AM Fri 66 66 N 8 5722 4951 2301 Blue 10
3 AM Fri 66 66 N 8 5722 4951 2301 Blue 10
4 AM Fri 67 67 N 8 6110 5098 2448 Blue 11

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst