Detailed Predictions for: Lake Elsinore
Launch Altitude (f): 2650
LZ Altitude (f): 1350
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

26 APR 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 55 55 W 2 2382 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 55 55 W 2 2382 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 56 56 NW 1 2382 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 59 60 NW 1 2578 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 62 64 SE 0 3207 2651 1 Blue 4
10 AM Thu 65 69 N 1 3983 3665 1015 Blue 9
11 AM Thu 68 73 N 2 4635 4084 1434 Blue 13
12 Noon Thu 71 77 N 2 6313 4928 2278 Blue 17
1 PM Thu 72 78 NW 2 6545 5178 2528 Blue 18
2 PM Thu 72 78 W 8 6545 5178 2528 Blue 18
3 PM Thu 73 77 W 9 6313 4928 2278 Blue 17
4 PM Thu 72 75 W 10 5199 4297 1647 Blue 15
5 PM Thu 70 71 W 10 4196 3877 1227 Blue 11
6 PM Thu 69 69 W 8 3983 3665 1015 Blue 9
7 PM Thu 67 67 NW 6 3785 3204 554 Blue 7
8 PM Thu 65 65 N 2 3395 2885 235 Blue 5
9 PM Thu 62 62 N 1 2888 2650 0 Blue 2
10 PM Thu 60 60 NE 1 2578 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 58 58 NE 1 2468 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 56 56 NE 1 2382 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 55 55 NE 1 2382 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 54 54 N 1 2382 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 53 53 N 1 2382 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 52 52 N 1 2382 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 52 52 NW 1 2382 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 52 52 NW 1 2382 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 53 53 NW 1 2382 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 56 56 N 1 2382 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 59 60 NE 0 2578 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 63 64 NE 0 3207 2651 1 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 66 72 W 1 4312 3978 1328 Blue 12
12 Noon Fri 68 75 W 2 5199 4297 1647 Blue 15
1 PM Fri 69 77 W 5 6313 4928 2278 Blue 17
2 PM Fri 68 75 W 10 5199 4297 1647 Blue 15
3 PM Fri 69 74 W 13 4948 4190 1540 Blue 14
4 PM Fri 68 71 W 15 4196 3877 1227 Blue 11
5 PM Fri 67 69 W 15 3983 3665 1015 Blue 9
6 PM Fri 66 66 W 14 3675 3047 397 Blue 6
7 PM Fri 64 64 W 10 3207 2651 1 Blue 4
8 PM Fri 63 63 W 7 3050 2650 0 Blue 3
9 PM Fri 61 61 W 5 2651 2650 0 Blue 1
10 PM Fri 59 59 NW 3 2522 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 58 58 NW 2 2468 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 56 56 NW 2 2382 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 55 55 W 2 2382 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 54 54 SW 3 2382 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 53 53 W 3 2382 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 52 52 W 3 2382 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 52 52 W 3 2382 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 52 52 W 3 2382 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 54 54 W 2 2382 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 56 57 NW 1 2415 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 58 60 W 1 2578 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 62 65 W 1 3395 2885 235 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 64 70 W 3 4090 3782 1132 Blue 10
12 Noon Sat 66 73 W 7 4635 4084 1434 Blue 13
1 PM Sat 65 72 W 10 4312 3978 1328 Blue 12
2 PM Sat 66 72 W 15 4312 3978 1328 Blue 12
3 PM Sat 65 70 W 16 4090 3782 1132 Blue 10
4 PM Sat 64 67 W 17 3785 3204 554 Blue 7
5 PM Sat 64 65 W 17 3395 2885 235 Blue 5
6 PM Sat 63 63 W 17 3050 2650 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 63 63 W 16 3050 2650 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sat 62 62 W 14 2888 2650 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sat 61 61 W 12 2651 2650 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sat 60 60 W 9 2578 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 58 58 NW 7 2468 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 56 56 W 6 2382 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 53 53 SW 6 2382 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 52 52 S 6 2382 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 51 51 S 5 2382 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 51 51 SW 5 2382 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 52 52 SW 5 2382 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 52 52 SW 5 2382 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 52 52 SW 5 2382 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 54 54 SW 6 2382 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 57 58 SW 6 2468 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 60 62 SW 6 2888 2650 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 63 69 SW 7 3983 3665 1015 Blue 9
12 Noon Sun 64 71 SW 7 4196 3877 1227 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 65 72 SW 7 4312 3978 1328 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 65 71 W 12 4196 3877 1227 Blue 11
3 PM Sun 65 70 W 12 4090 3782 1132 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 64 67 W 12 3785 3204 554 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 64 65 W 14 3395 2885 235 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 64 64 W 14 3207 2651 1 Blue 4
7 PM Sun 64 64 W 14 3207 2651 1 Blue 4
8 PM Sun 64 64 SW 12 3207 2651 1 Blue 4
9 PM Sun 62 62 SW 12 2888 2650 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 59 59 SW 12 2522 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 57 57 SW 8 2415 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 55 55 SW 8 2382 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 54 54 SW 8 2382 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 53 53 SW 7 2382 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 53 53 SW 7 2382 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 52 52 SW 7 2382 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 52 52 S 8 2382 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 52 52 S 8 2382 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 52 52 S 8 2382 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 54 54 SW 10 2382 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 55 55 SW 10 2382 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 57 58 SW 10 2468 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 59 64 SW 13 3207 2651 1 Blue 4
12 Noon Mon 60 66 SW 13 3675 3047 397 Blue 6
1 PM Mon 60 66 SW 13 3675 3047 397 Blue 6
2 PM Mon 60 65 SW 16 3395 2885 235 Blue 5
3 PM Mon 59 63 SW 16 3050 2650 0 Blue 3
4 PM Mon 59 62 SW 16 2888 2650 0 Blue 2
5 PM Mon 58 59 SW 17 2522 2650 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 57 57 SW 17 2415 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 56 56 SW 17 2382 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 56 56 SW 14 2382 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 54 54 SW 14 2382 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 54 54 SW 14 2382 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 53 53 SW 9 2382 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 53 53 SW 9 2382 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 52 52 SW 9 2382 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 52 52 S 8 2382 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 52 52 S 8 2382 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 51 51 S 8 2382 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 51 51 S 8 2382 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 51 51 S 8 2382 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 51 51 S 8 2382 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 52 52 S 7 2382 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 54 55 S 7 2382 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 55 56 S 7 2382 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 57 60 S 7 2578 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 59 62 S 7 2888 2650 0 Blue 2
1 PM Tue 60 63 S 7 3050 2650 0 Blue 3
2 PM Tue 61 64 SW 12 3207 2651 1 Blue 4
3 PM Tue 61 63 SW 12 3050 2650 0 Blue 3
4 PM Tue 60 61 SW 12 2651 2650 0 Blue 1
5 PM Tue 58 58 SW 14 2468 2650 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 57 57 SW 14 2415 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 56 56 SW 14 2382 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 56 56 W 8 2382 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 56 56 W 8 2382 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 56 56 W 8 2382 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 55 55 NW 2 2382 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 54 54 NW 2 2382 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 53 53 NW 2 2382 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 52 52 W 2 2382 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 52 52 W 2 2382 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 52 52 W 2 2382 2650 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst