Detailed Predictions for: Lake Elsinore
Launch Altitude (f): 2650
LZ Altitude (f): 1350
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

17 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 59 59 W 6 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 60 60 W 6 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 59 59 W 5 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 59 59 W 6 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 61 61 W 5 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 62 62 NW 3 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 64 65 NW 3 2377 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 67 68 W 6 3953 2650 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Fri 67 69 W 8 4474 2859 209 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 67 68 W 10 3953 2650 0 Blue 2
2 PM Fri 67 68 W 12 3953 2650 0 Blue 2
3 PM Fri 67 67 W 14 3417 2650 0 Blue 1
4 PM Fri 64 64 W 15 1941 2650 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 62 62 W 15 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 62 62 W 14 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 61 61 W 9 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 60 60 NW 2 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 58 58 SW 1 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 57 57 E 1 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 56 56 NE 1 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 56 56 N 2 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 55 55 N 8 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 54 54 NW 10 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 54 54 NW 10 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 53 53 NW 12 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 54 54 N 10 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 53 53 NW 9 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 54 54 NW 10 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 56 56 NW 10 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 59 60 NW 9 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 63 65 N 8 2377 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 68 71 N 8 5596 3929 1279 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 68 71 N 7 5596 3929 1279 Blue 5
1 PM Sat 68 70 N 7 5026 3402 752 Blue 4
2 PM Sat 68 69 N 8 4474 2859 209 Blue 3
3 PM Sat 68 68 N 8 3953 2650 0 Blue 2
4 PM Sat 64 64 N 9 1941 2650 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 62 62 N 9 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 62 62 N 10 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 61 61 N 10 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 59 59 N 10 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 57 57 NW 8 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 56 56 NW 6 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 55 55 NW 5 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 54 54 N 6 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 54 54 N 5 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 52 52 NW 3 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 52 52 N 5 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 51 51 N 6 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 52 52 N 5 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 51 51 N 5 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 52 52 N 7 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 55 55 N 6 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 59 60 N 7 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 64 66 N 7 2865 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 70 72 N 7 6012 4443 1793 Blue 6
12 Noon Sun 71 74 N 6 6790 5537 2887 Blue 8
1 PM Sun 71 73 N 6 6529 5011 2361 Blue 7
2 PM Sun 71 72 NW 5 6012 4443 1793 Blue 6
3 PM Sun 71 71 NW 6 5596 3929 1279 Blue 5
4 PM Sun 67 67 W 9 3417 2650 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sun 65 65 W 7 2377 2650 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 65 65 NW 7 2377 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 64 64 W 5 1941 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 62 62 NW 1 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 60 60 N 0 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 59 59 SE 2 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 58 58 SE 2 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 57 57 S 2 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 57 57 S 2 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 55 55 S 2 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 55 55 SW 2 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 54 54 W 2 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 55 55 W 2 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 54 54 W 2 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 55 55 W 3 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 57 57 W 3 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 60 61 W 3 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 64 65 N 1 2377 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 68 70 N 1 5026 3402 752 Blue 4
12 Noon Mon 70 72 N 1 6012 4443 1793 Blue 6
1 PM Mon 70 72 W 5 6012 4443 1793 Blue 6
2 PM Mon 70 71 W 5 5596 3929 1279 Blue 5
3 PM Mon 69 69 W 5 4474 2859 209 Blue 3
4 PM Mon 67 67 NW 6 3417 2650 0 Blue 1
5 PM Mon 66 66 NW 6 2865 2650 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 66 66 NW 6 2865 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 65 65 N 5 2377 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 64 64 N 5 1941 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 63 63 N 5 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 62 62 N 1 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 61 61 N 1 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 61 61 N 1 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 61 61 N 2 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 60 60 N 2 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 60 60 N 2 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 59 59 N 6 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 60 60 N 6 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 59 59 N 6 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 60 60 N 6 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 62 62 N 6 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 66 67 N 6 3417 2650 0 Blue 1
10 AM Tue 70 72 N 3 6012 4443 1793 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 75 77 N 3 7940 6755 4105 Blue 11
12 Noon Tue 77 79 N 3 8505 7497 4847 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 77 79 N 5 8505 7497 4847 Blue 13
2 PM Tue 77 78 N 5 8333 7115 4465 Blue 12
3 PM Tue 76 76 N 5 7559 6495 3845 Blue 10
4 PM Tue 73 73 NW 8 6529 5011 2361 Blue 7
5 PM Tue 72 72 NW 8 6012 4443 1793 Blue 6
6 PM Tue 71 71 NW 8 5596 3929 1279 Blue 5
7 PM Tue 70 70 N 7 5026 3402 752 Blue 4
8 PM Tue 69 69 N 7 4474 2859 209 Blue 3
9 PM Tue 67 67 N 7 3417 2650 0 Blue 1
10 PM Tue 66 66 NE 2 2865 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 65 65 NE 2 2377 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 65 65 NE 2 2377 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 64 64 N 8 1941 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 63 63 N 8 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 63 63 N 8 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 62 62 N 8 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 63 63 N 8 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 62 62 N 8 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 63 63 N 7 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 65 65 N 7 2377 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 69 70 N 7 5026 3402 752 Blue 4
10 AM Wed 74 76 N 8 7559 6495 3845 Blue 10
11 AM Wed 79 82 N 8 10025 8478 5828 Blue 16
12 Noon Wed 81 84 N 8 11152 9562 6912 Blue 18
1 PM Wed 81 83 N 9 10491 8615 5965 Blue 17
2 PM Wed 81 82 N 9 10025 8478 5828 Blue 16
3 PM Wed 80 80 N 9 8648 7874 5224 Blue 14
4 PM Wed 75 75 N 13 7172 5948 3298 Blue 9
5 PM Wed 73 73 N 13 6529 5011 2361 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 73 73 N 13 6529 5011 2361 Blue 7
7 PM Wed 71 71 NE 5 5596 3929 1279 Blue 5
8 PM Wed 69 69 NE 5 4474 2859 209 Blue 3
9 PM Wed 67 67 NE 5 3417 2650 0 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 66 66 NE 3 2865 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 64 64 NE 3 1941 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 64 64 NE 3 1941 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 63 63 N 8 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 61 61 N 8 1555 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 61 61 N 8 1555 2650 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst