Detailed Predictions for: Lake Elsinore
Launch Altitude (f): 2650
LZ Altitude (f): 1350
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

14 DEC 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 52 52 E 3 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 51 51 E 3 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 51 51 E 3 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 52 52 E 3 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 54 54 E 3 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 57 57 E 3 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 60 60 SE 2 1198 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 62 62 S 2 1846 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 63 64 SW 3 2483 2650 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 63 63 W 6 2166 2650 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 64 64 W 6 2483 2650 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 63 63 W 6 2166 2650 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 62 62 W 8 1846 2650 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 61 61 W 7 1523 2650 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 60 60 W 6 1198 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 59 59 N 2 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 58 58 N 2 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 57 57 N 1 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 56 56 SW 2 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 55 55 SW 3 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 54 54 W 3 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 53 53 NW 5 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 52 52 N 3 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 51 51 N 3 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 50 50 N 2 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 50 50 N 2 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 50 50 N 3 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 51 51 N 2 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 54 54 E 2 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 57 57 NE 2 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 61 62 NE 2 1846 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 64 66 NE 2 3798 2650 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sat 66 68 N 2 4391 2806 156 Blue 3
1 PM Sat 68 70 N 2 4834 4157 1507 Blue 5
2 PM Sat 67 68 N 3 4391 2806 156 Blue 3
3 PM Sat 67 67 N 6 4169 2650 0 Blue 2
4 PM Sat 65 65 NW 7 2809 2650 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 62 62 N 7 1846 2650 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 60 60 N 6 1198 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 57 57 N 6 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 56 56 N 5 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 55 55 N 5 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 54 54 N 5 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 54 54 NE 3 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 54 54 E 2 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 54 54 SE 2 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 53 53 SE 2 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 53 53 SE 3 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 52 52 SE 5 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 51 51 S 6 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 50 50 S 6 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 51 51 S 7 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 54 54 S 6 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 58 58 SE 5 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 62 63 SE 3 2166 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 64 65 SE 5 2809 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 66 67 S 7 4169 2650 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sun 67 68 S 8 4391 2806 156 Blue 3
2 PM Sun 66 67 S 9 4169 2650 0 Blue 2
3 PM Sun 66 66 S 8 3798 2650 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sun 66 66 S 7 3798 2650 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sun 64 64 SW 6 2483 2650 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 63 63 NW 3 2166 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 60 60 NW 2 1198 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 58 58 N 2 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 56 56 NE 3 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 54 54 NE 5 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 52 52 N 5 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 51 51 N 5 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 51 51 NW 3 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 52 52 W 3 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 52 52 SW 2 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 53 53 S 2 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 52 52 S 2 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 52 52 S 2 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 51 51 NW 5 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 52 52 NW 5 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 52 52 NW 5 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 54 56 N 3 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 55 57 N 3 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 57 60 N 3 1198 2650 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 58 60 NW 7 1198 2650 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 58 59 NW 7 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 57 57 NW 7 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 56 56 W 10 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 55 55 W 10 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 54 54 W 10 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 54 54 NW 8 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 54 54 NW 8 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 53 53 NW 8 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 53 53 NW 3 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 52 52 NW 3 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 52 52 NW 3 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 52 52 NW 6 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 51 51 NW 6 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 50 50 NW 6 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 50 50 N 8 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 50 50 N 8 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 51 51 N 8 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 52 52 N 14 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 54 54 N 14 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 55 55 N 14 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 57 58 N 12 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 59 61 N 12 1523 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 60 62 N 12 1846 2650 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 62 64 N 15 2483 2650 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 62 63 N 15 2166 2650 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 61 61 N 15 1523 2650 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 59 59 N 14 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 57 57 N 14 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 55 55 N 14 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 54 54 N 12 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 53 53 N 12 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 52 52 N 12 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 52 52 N 9 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 53 53 N 9 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 53 53 N 9 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 54 54 NW 10 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 53 53 NW 10 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 52 52 NW 10 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 52 52 N 12 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 51 51 N 12 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 51 51 N 12 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 52 52 N 9 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 54 54 N 9 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 56 57 N 9 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 60 61 N 8 1523 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 63 65 N 8 2809 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 67 69 N 8 4613 3757 1107 Blue 4
1 PM Wed 69 71 N 9 5162 4378 1728 Blue 6
2 PM Wed 70 71 N 9 5162 4378 1728 Blue 6
3 PM Wed 70 70 N 9 4834 4157 1507 Blue 5
4 PM Wed 68 68 N 10 4391 2806 156 Blue 3
5 PM Wed 66 66 N 10 3798 2650 0 Blue 1
6 PM Wed 64 64 N 10 2483 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 62 62 N 8 1846 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 60 60 N 8 1198 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 59 59 N 8 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 58 58 N 6 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 57 57 N 6 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 56 56 N 6 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 56 56 N 3 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 55 N 3 1050 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 55 55 N 3 1050 2650 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst