Detailed Predictions for: Lake Elsinore
Launch Altitude (f): 2650
LZ Altitude (f): 1350
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Thu 60 60 N 2 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 60 60 N 2 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 59 59 N 2 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 60 60 N 2 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 59 59 NE 1 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 63 63 E 1 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 65 66 SE 2 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 67 69 S 2 2989 2650 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Thu 70 72 SW 2 3589 2986 336 Blue 4
1 PM Thu 72 74 W 6 4722 3347 697 Blue 6
2 PM Thu 71 72 W 7 3589 2986 336 Blue 4
3 PM Thu 70 70 SW 8 3170 2650 0 Blue 2
4 PM Thu 68 68 W 9 2616 2650 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 62 62 W 8 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 61 61 W 8 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 59 59 W 5 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 57 57 W 2 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 57 57 W 1 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 57 57 SW 2 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 56 56 SW 3 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 55 55 SW 5 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 55 55 SW 6 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 54 54 SW 5 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 54 54 SW 5 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 54 54 W 3 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 53 53 W 3 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 52 52 W 3 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 52 52 SW 5 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 52 52 W 5 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 53 53 W 5 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 54 55 SW 6 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 55 56 SW 8 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 55 56 SW 9 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 56 57 SW 12 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 55 55 SW 12 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 55 55 SW 12 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 53 53 W 14 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 50 50 W 14 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 49 49 W 14 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 48 48 W 14 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 47 47 W 14 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 47 47 W 13 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 47 47 W 14 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 46 46 W 14 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 46 46 W 15 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 46 46 W 14 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 45 45 W 14 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 45 45 W 15 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 45 45 W 14 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 45 45 W 14 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 44 44 W 13 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 44 44 W 14 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 44 44 W 10 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 45 46 W 12 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 46 47 W 8 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 47 49 W 8 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 48 50 W 9 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 49 51 W 10 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 48 49 W 12 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 48 49 W 14 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 48 48 W 18 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 46 46 NW 16 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 46 46 NW 16 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 45 45 NW 8 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 45 45 NW 8 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 44 44 NW 8 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 44 44 N 9 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 44 44 N 9 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 44 44 N 9 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 44 44 N 9 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 44 44 N 9 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 44 44 N 9 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 44 44 NE 7 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 43 43 NE 7 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 43 43 NE 7 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 44 44 N 3 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 43 43 N 3 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 47 48 N 3 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 49 50 SE 2 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 51 53 SE 2 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 54 56 SE 2 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 56 58 N 0 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 56 57 N 0 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 55 55 N 0 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 54 54 W 6 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 51 51 W 6 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 50 50 W 6 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 50 50 NW 8 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 49 49 NW 8 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 48 48 NW 8 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 48 48 N 5 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 48 48 N 5 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 47 47 N 5 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 47 47 N 3 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 47 47 N 3 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 47 47 N 3 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 47 47 NE 3 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 46 46 NE 3 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 46 46 NE 3 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 47 47 W 3 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 46 46 W 3 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 50 50 W 3 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 53 54 E 2 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 56 58 E 2 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 58 60 E 2 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 61 63 NW 5 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 61 62 NW 5 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 60 60 NW 5 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 58 58 W 10 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 56 56 W 10 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 55 55 W 10 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 54 54 NW 12 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 53 53 NW 12 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 53 53 NW 12 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 53 53 N 3 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 52 52 N 3 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 52 52 N 3 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 52 52 N 2 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 51 51 N 2 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 51 51 N 2 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 51 51 N 6 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 51 51 N 6 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 50 50 N 6 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 51 51 N 7 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 50 N 7 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 54 55 N 7 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 58 59 N 5 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 60 62 N 5 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 63 65 N 5 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 66 68 N 5 2616 2650 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 66 67 N 5 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 65 66 N 5 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 63 63 NW 5 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 60 60 NW 5 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 59 59 NW 5 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 58 58 S 1 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 56 56 S 1 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 56 56 S 1 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 56 56 N 5 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 55 55 N 5 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 55 55 N 5 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 55 55 N 5 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 54 54 N 5 2277 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 54 54 N 5 2277 2650 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst