Detailed Predictions for: Lake Elsinore
Launch Altitude (f): 2650
LZ Altitude (f): 1350
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

25 NOV 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 47 47 SE 3 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 46 46 SE 5 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 46 46 S 5 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 47 47 S 3 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 50 50 S 3 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 54 55 S 2 3076 2650 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 58 60 SE 2 3348 3292 642 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 61 63 SW 3 3659 3347 697 Blue 9
12 Noon Wed 63 66 SW 3 4641 3654 1004 Blue 12
1 PM Wed 62 64 W 6 3808 3365 715 Blue 10
2 PM Wed 62 63 W 7 3659 3347 697 Blue 9
3 PM Wed 61 61 W 7 3366 3311 661 Blue 7
4 PM Wed 59 59 W 9 3329 3274 624 Blue 5
5 PM Wed 57 57 SW 6 3293 2734 84 Blue 3
6 PM Wed 55 55 SW 3 3076 2650 0 Blue 1
7 PM Wed 53 53 SW 2 2380 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 50 50 S 1 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 49 49 SE 2 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 47 47 SE 2 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 46 46 SE 2 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 45 45 S 2 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 45 45 SW 2 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 44 44 SW 1 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 43 43 W 0 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 42 42 NW 0 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 42 42 NW 3 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 42 42 NW 8 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 43 43 NW 12 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 45 45 NW 14 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 48 49 N 15 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 51 53 N 16 2380 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 54 56 N 18 3275 2650 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Thu 56 59 N 21 3329 3274 624 Blue 5
1 PM Thu 58 60 N 21 3348 3292 642 Blue 6
2 PM Thu 57 58 N 22 3311 3070 420 Blue 4
3 PM Thu 58 58 N 21 3311 3070 420 Blue 4
4 PM Thu 56 56 N 20 3275 2650 0 Blue 2
5 PM Thu 54 54 N 21 2736 2650 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 51 51 N 20 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 49 49 N 20 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 48 48 N 16 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 47 47 N 13 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 46 46 N 10 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 46 46 N 9 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 45 45 NW 10 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 44 44 NW 12 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 43 43 NW 14 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 43 43 NW 15 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 42 42 NW 16 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 41 41 N 16 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 41 41 N 16 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 42 42 N 16 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 45 45 N 16 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 50 51 N 16 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 54 56 N 16 3275 2650 0 Blue 2
11 AM Fri 58 61 N 15 3366 3311 661 Blue 7
12 Noon Fri 60 63 N 14 3659 3347 697 Blue 9
1 PM Fri 61 63 N 14 3659 3347 697 Blue 9
2 PM Fri 61 62 N 14 3511 3329 679 Blue 8
3 PM Fri 62 62 N 14 3511 3329 679 Blue 8
4 PM Fri 60 60 NW 14 3348 3292 642 Blue 6
5 PM Fri 57 57 N 12 3293 2734 84 Blue 3
6 PM Fri 53 53 N 9 2380 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 49 49 N 7 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 46 46 N 6 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 44 44 N 6 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 43 43 N 6 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 44 44 N 6 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 46 46 NE 6 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 48 48 NE 6 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 48 48 NE 6 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 48 48 NE 6 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 47 47 NE 7 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 46 46 NE 7 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 46 46 NE 7 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 46 46 NE 7 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 49 49 NE 7 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 53 54 NE 7 2736 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 57 59 N 6 3329 3274 624 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 60 62 N 6 3511 3329 679 Blue 8
12 Noon Sat 63 66 N 6 4641 3654 1004 Blue 12
1 PM Sat 65 67 NE 5 5756 3802 1152 Blue 13
2 PM Sat 66 67 NE 5 5756 3802 1152 Blue 13
3 PM Sat 66 66 NE 5 4641 3654 1004 Blue 12
4 PM Sat 66 66 N 14 4641 3654 1004 Blue 12
5 PM Sat 62 62 N 14 3511 3329 679 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 58 58 N 14 3311 3070 420 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 53 53 SE 7 2380 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 50 50 SE 7 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 48 48 SE 7 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 47 47 NE 5 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 45 45 NE 5 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 44 44 NE 5 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 44 44 N 6 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 44 44 N 6 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 45 45 N 6 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 46 46 N 8 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 45 45 N 8 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 45 45 N 8 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 46 46 N 9 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 50 50 N 9 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 55 56 N 9 3275 2650 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sun 60 62 N 6 3511 3329 679 Blue 8
11 AM Sun 64 66 N 6 4641 3654 1004 Blue 12
12 Noon Sun 67 69 N 6 7131 4590 1940 Blue 15
1 PM Sun 69 71 N 5 7483 6771 4121 Blue 17
2 PM Sun 69 70 N 5 7307 5627 2977 Blue 16
3 PM Sun 70 70 N 5 7307 5627 2977 Blue 16
4 PM Sun 68 68 NW 8 6921 3949 1299 Blue 14
5 PM Sun 66 66 NW 8 4641 3654 1004 Blue 12
6 PM Sun 63 63 NW 8 3659 3347 697 Blue 9
7 PM Sun 60 60 N 9 3348 3292 642 Blue 6
8 PM Sun 57 57 N 9 3293 2734 84 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 55 55 N 9 3076 2650 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 54 54 N 7 2736 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 52 52 N 7 2013 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 51 51 N 7 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 50 50 E 3 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 50 50 E 3 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 49 49 E 3 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 49 49 NE 6 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 48 48 NE 6 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 47 47 NE 6 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 48 48 E 5 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 53 53 E 5 2380 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 59 59 E 5 3329 3274 624 Blue 5
10 AM Mon 65 66 SE 5 4641 3654 1004 Blue 12
11 AM Mon 68 69 SE 5 7131 4590 1940 Blue 15
12 Noon Mon 69 70 SE 5 7307 5627 2977 Blue 16
1 PM Mon 70 71 SW 6 7483 6771 4121 Blue 17
2 PM Mon 69 70 SW 6 7307 5627 2977 Blue 16
3 PM Mon 67 67 SW 6 5756 3802 1152 Blue 13
4 PM Mon 66 66 SW 8 4641 3654 1004 Blue 12
5 PM Mon 65 65 SW 8 3956 3507 857 Blue 11
6 PM Mon 64 64 SW 8 3808 3365 715 Blue 10
7 PM Mon 62 62 W 7 3511 3329 679 Blue 8
8 PM Mon 60 60 W 7 3348 3292 642 Blue 6
9 PM Mon 56 56 W 7 3275 2650 0 Blue 2
10 PM Mon 54 54 NE 3 2736 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 52 52 NE 3 2013 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 52 52 NE 3 2013 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 51 51 W 5 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 50 50 W 5 1929 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 48 48 W 5 1929 2650 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst