Detailed Predictions for: Little Black
Launch Altitude (f): 1050
LZ Altitude (f): 750
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

19 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sun 47 39 N 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 45 37 NE 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 44 36 NE 1 551 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 46 38 E 1 551 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 52 44 NE 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 60 53 NW 3 551 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 66 60 W 5 608 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 71 66 W 6 965 1050 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 71 66 W 7 965 1050 0 Blue 4
1 PM Sun 72 66 W 8 965 1050 0 Blue 4
2 PM Sun 70 63 W 8 725 1050 0 Blue 1
3 PM Sun 68 60 W 7 608 1050 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 64 56 NW 6 551 1050 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 59 51 NW 5 551 1050 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 54 46 NW 3 551 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 51 43 N 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 48 40 N 1 551 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 47 39 NE 1 551 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 46 38 NE 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 45 37 NE 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 44 36 E 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 43 35 E 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 43 35 E 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 43 35 E 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 43 35 E 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 44 36 E 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 45 37 E 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 48 40 NE 1 551 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 54 46 N 1 551 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 61 54 N 1 551 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 67 60 W 3 608 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 71 65 W 5 885 1050 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Mon 73 67 W 6 1045 1050 0 Blue 5
1 PM Mon 72 65 W 8 885 1050 0 Blue 3
2 PM Mon 72 65 W 8 885 1050 0 Blue 3
3 PM Mon 69 61 W 7 633 1050 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 66 58 W 5 560 1050 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 62 54 W 3 551 1050 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 58 50 NW 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 55 47 NE 1 551 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 56 48 NE 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 57 49 NE 1 551 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 58 50 E 1 551 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 57 49 SE 1 551 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 55 47 W 0 551 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 53 45 SE 1 551 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 52 44 E 1 551 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 52 44 N 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 52 44 NE 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 52 44 E 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 53 45 E 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 56 48 E 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 62 54 SE 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 70 63 W 1 725 1050 0 Blue 1
10 AM Tue 76 70 W 2 1418 1050 0 Blue 8
11 AM Tue 80 74 W 3 2148 1688 638 Blue 12
12 Noon Tue 82 76 W 6 2620 2052 1002 Blue 14
1 PM Tue 81 75 W 7 2369 1960 910 Blue 13
2 PM Tue 81 74 W 8 2148 1688 638 Blue 12
3 PM Tue 80 72 W 7 1964 1204 154 Blue 10
4 PM Tue 77 69 NW 6 1206 1050 0 Blue 7
5 PM Tue 74 66 W 5 965 1050 0 Blue 4
6 PM Tue 71 63 W 3 725 1050 0 Blue 1
7 PM Tue 69 61 W 1 633 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 67 59 NW 1 584 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 66 58 N 2 560 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 65 57 N 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 63 55 N 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 60 52 NW 1 551 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 59 51 E 1 551 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 59 51 E 1 551 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 60 52 NE 0 551 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 62 54 E 5 551 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 64 56 E 5 551 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 66 58 E 5 560 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 70 62 E 3 657 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 75 67 E 3 1045 1050 0 Blue 5
9 AM Wed 81 74 E 3 2148 1688 638 Blue 12
10 AM Wed 86 80 SW 2 4831 3353 2303 Blue 18
11 AM Wed 88 83 SW 2 6031 4798 3748 Blue 21
12 Noon Wed 89 84 SW 2 6094 5561 4511 Blue 22
1 PM Wed 88 82 W 6 5968 4559 3509 Blue 20
2 PM Wed 87 81 W 6 5717 4172 3122 Blue 19
3 PM Wed 86 79 W 6 4590 2604 1554 Blue 17
4 PM Wed 83 75 NW 5 2369 1960 910 Blue 13
5 PM Wed 79 71 NW 5 1697 1124 74 Blue 9
6 PM Wed 74 66 NW 5 965 1050 0 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 69 61 N 2 633 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 65 57 N 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 63 55 N 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 61 53 E 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 61 53 E 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 62 54 E 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 62 54 E 3 551 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 63 55 E 3 551 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 64 56 E 3 551 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 64 56 E 5 551 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 64 56 E 5 551 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 66 58 E 5 560 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 68 60 SE 3 608 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 74 66 SE 3 965 1050 0 Blue 4
9 AM Thu 80 73 SE 3 2056 1411 361 Blue 11
10 AM Thu 85 79 SW 2 4590 2604 1554 Blue 17
11 AM Thu 88 83 SW 2 6031 4798 3748 Blue 21
12 Noon Thu 88 83 SW 2 6031 4798 3748 Blue 21
1 PM Thu 88 82 W 8 5968 4559 3509 Blue 20
2 PM Thu 87 80 W 8 4831 3353 2303 Blue 18
3 PM Thu 86 78 W 8 4265 2355 1305 Blue 16
4 PM Thu 83 75 W 5 2369 1960 910 Blue 13
5 PM Thu 77 69 W 5 1206 1050 0 Blue 7
6 PM Thu 70 62 W 5 657 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 64 56 NE 1 551 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 61 53 NE 1 551 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 59 51 NE 1 551 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 59 51 SE 1 551 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 59 51 SE 1 551 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 59 51 SE 1 551 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 59 51 E 1 551 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 58 50 E 1 551 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 58 50 E 1 551 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 57 49 E 3 551 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 57 49 E 3 551 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 58 50 E 3 551 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 60 52 S 1 551 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 64 56 S 1 551 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 68 61 S 1 633 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 73 67 SW 3 1045 1050 0 Blue 5
11 AM Fri 77 72 SW 3 1964 1204 154 Blue 10
12 Noon Fri 80 75 SW 3 2369 1960 910 Blue 13
1 PM Fri 82 76 W 7 2620 2052 1002 Blue 14
2 PM Fri 82 75 W 7 2369 1960 910 Blue 13
3 PM Fri 81 73 W 7 2056 1411 361 Blue 11
4 PM Fri 77 69 SW 5 1206 1050 0 Blue 7
5 PM Fri 71 63 SW 5 725 1050 0 Blue 1
6 PM Fri 65 57 SW 5 551 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 60 52 SE 1 551 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 59 51 SE 1 551 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 60 52 SE 1 551 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 62 54 SE 3 551 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 62 54 SE 3 551 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 61 53 SE 3 551 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 60 52 SE 3 551 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 59 51 SE 3 551 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 59 51 SE 3 551 1050 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst