Detailed Predictions for: Little Black
Launch Altitude (f): 1050
LZ Altitude (f): 750
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

27 MAY 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 55 47 E 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 55 47 S 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 56 48 SW 0 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 57 49 SW 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 60 52 W 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 63 55 W 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 66 63 W 7 2978 2577 1527 White 6
12 Noon Sun 67 65 W 8 3407 3356 2306 White 8
1 PM Sun 68 66 W 8 3621 3621 2571 White 9
2 PM Sun 67 64 W 10 3192 2969 1919 White 7
3 PM Sun 68 64 W 10 3192 2969 1919 White 7
4 PM Sun 67 62 W 10 2763 2207 1157 White 5
5 PM Sun 66 59 W 9 2094 1050 0 White 2
6 PM Sun 64 56 W 8 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 61 53 W 7 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 59 51 W 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 58 50 W 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 58 50 W 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 58 50 W 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 58 50 SW 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 58 50 SW 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 57 49 W 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 57 49 W 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 57 49 NW 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 56 48 NW 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 56 48 N 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 56 48 NW 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 58 50 W 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 61 53 W 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 64 56 W 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 68 64 W 8 3192 2969 1919 White 7
12 Noon Mon 69 66 W 9 3621 3621 2571 White 9
1 PM Mon 68 65 W 9 3407 3356 2306 White 8
2 PM Mon 69 66 W 10 3621 3621 2571 White 9
3 PM Mon 68 64 W 9 3192 2969 1919 White 7
4 PM Mon 68 62 W 9 2763 2207 1157 White 5
5 PM Mon 67 60 W 8 2321 1050 0 White 3
6 PM Mon 65 57 W 8 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 62 54 W 7 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 60 52 W 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 59 51 W 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 58 50 W 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 58 50 W 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 58 50 W 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 57 49 W 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 57 49 W 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 57 49 W 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 57 49 W 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 56 48 W 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 56 48 SW 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 56 48 SW 0 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 58 50 SW 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 62 54 W 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 66 58 W 3 1852 1050 0 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 70 68 W 8 4049 4049 2999 White 11
12 Noon Tue 72 71 W 9 4695 4684 3634 White 14
1 PM Tue 71 70 W 9 4475 4475 3425 White 13
2 PM Tue 71 70 W 10 4475 4475 3425 White 13
3 PM Tue 70 67 W 9 3835 3835 2785 White 10
4 PM Tue 69 65 SW 9 3407 3356 2306 White 8
5 PM Tue 68 62 SW 9 2763 2207 1157 White 5
6 PM Tue 65 57 SW 8 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 63 55 SW 7 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 61 53 SW 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 60 52 SW 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 59 51 S 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 58 50 S 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 58 50 S 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 57 49 S 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 57 49 S 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 57 49 S 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 57 49 S 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 57 49 S 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 57 49 S 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 58 50 S 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 60 52 S 8 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 63 55 S 8 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 66 58 S 8 1852 1050 0 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 69 67 SW 10 3835 3835 2785 White 10
12 Noon Wed 70 68 SW 10 4049 4049 2999 White 11
1 PM Wed 70 69 SW 10 4262 4262 3212 White 12
2 PM Wed 69 67 SW 10 3835 3835 2785 White 10
3 PM Wed 68 65 SW 10 3407 3356 2306 White 8
4 PM Wed 67 62 SW 10 2763 2207 1157 White 5
5 PM Wed 65 59 SW 9 2094 1050 0 White 2
6 PM Wed 62 54 SW 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 60 52 SW 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 58 50 SW 7 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 58 50 SW 7 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 58 50 SW 7 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 58 50 SW 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 58 50 SW 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 57 49 SW 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 57 49 S 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 57 49 S 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 57 49 S 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 57 49 S 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 58 50 S 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 58 50 S 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 59 51 S 7 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 61 53 S 7 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 64 56 S 7 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 66 63 SW 8 2978 2577 1527 White 6
12 Noon Thu 67 64 SW 8 3192 2969 1919 White 7
1 PM Thu 67 65 SW 8 3407 3356 2306 White 8
2 PM Thu 67 64 W 12 3192 2969 1919 White 7
3 PM Thu 66 62 W 12 2763 2207 1157 White 5
4 PM Thu 65 60 W 12 2321 1050 0 White 3
5 PM Thu 64 57 W 10 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 62 54 W 10 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 60 52 W 10 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 59 51 W 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 58 50 W 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 58 50 W 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 58 50 W 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 58 50 W 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 57 49 W 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 56 48 W 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 55 47 W 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 54 46 W 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 54 46 W 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 55 47 W 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 56 48 W 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 58 50 W 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 61 53 W 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 63 56 W 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 66 65 W 8 3407 3356 2306 White 8
12 Noon Fri 67 67 W 8 3835 3835 2785 White 10
1 PM Fri 68 68 W 8 4049 4049 2999 White 11
2 PM Fri 68 67 W 9 3835 3835 2785 White 10
3 PM Fri 68 66 W 9 3621 3621 2571 White 9
4 PM Fri 67 63 W 9 2978 2577 1527 White 6
5 PM Fri 66 60 W 9 2321 1050 0 White 3
6 PM Fri 65 57 W 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 64 56 W 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 63 55 NW 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 61 53 NW 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 60 52 NW 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 59 51 NW 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 58 50 NW 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 57 49 NW 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 57 49 N 0 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 56 48 N 0 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 55 47 N 0 440 1050 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst