Detailed Predictions for: Little Black
Launch Altitude (f): 1050
LZ Altitude (f): 750
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

17 SEP 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 62 54 SE 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 62 54 E 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 63 55 E 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 65 57 N 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 68 60 NW 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 73 66 W 2 987 1050 0 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 77 74 W 5 1709 1575 525 Blue 9
12 Noon Tue 79 77 W 7 2273 1707 657 Blue 12
1 PM Tue 79 78 W 8 2475 1860 810 Blue 13
2 PM Tue 80 78 W 9 2475 1860 810 Blue 13
3 PM Tue 79 76 W 9 2071 1651 601 Blue 11
4 PM Tue 78 73 W 9 1653 1540 490 Blue 8
5 PM Tue 75 68 W 8 1459 1050 0 Blue 3
6 PM Tue 73 65 W 7 643 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 70 62 W 5 551 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 68 60 W 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 66 58 W 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 66 58 W 1 551 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 65 57 NE 1 551 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 64 56 NE 1 551 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 64 56 E 1 551 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 63 55 E 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 62 54 E 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 62 54 SE 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 61 53 SE 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 61 53 SE 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 61 53 SE 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 63 55 SE 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 67 59 SE 3 551 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 71 63 SW 5 551 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 75 72 SW 6 1612 1505 455 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 77 75 SW 7 1868 1611 561 Blue 10
1 PM Wed 77 75 SW 8 1868 1611 561 Blue 10
2 PM Wed 78 76 SW 9 2071 1651 601 Blue 11
3 PM Wed 77 73 SW 9 1653 1540 490 Blue 8
4 PM Wed 75 70 W 9 1541 1375 325 Blue 5
5 PM Wed 73 66 W 8 987 1050 0 Blue 1
6 PM Wed 70 62 SW 7 551 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 67 59 SW 5 551 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 65 57 SW 3 551 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 64 56 SW 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 65 57 S 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 65 57 S 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 64 56 S 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 63 55 S 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 62 54 SE 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 61 53 SE 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 60 52 SE 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 60 52 SE 3 551 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 60 52 SE 3 551 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 62 54 SE 3 551 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 63 55 SE 3 551 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 66 58 S 5 551 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 69 61 S 6 551 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 72 69 SW 7 1506 1050 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Thu 74 72 SW 8 1612 1505 455 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 75 73 SW 10 1653 1540 490 Blue 8
2 PM Thu 74 72 SW 12 1612 1505 455 Blue 7
3 PM Thu 74 70 W 12 1541 1375 325 Blue 5
4 PM Thu 73 68 W 10 1459 1050 0 Blue 3
5 PM Thu 72 65 W 9 643 1050 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 70 62 W 8 551 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 68 60 W 6 551 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 66 58 SW 5 551 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 65 57 SW 3 551 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 64 56 S 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 64 56 SE 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 64 56 SE 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 63 55 SE 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 62 54 SE 3 551 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 62 54 SE 3 551 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 61 53 SE 3 551 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 61 53 SE 3 551 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 62 54 SE 3 551 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 63 55 SE 3 551 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 66 58 SE 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 68 60 SE 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 71 63 SE 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 74 71 W 5 1577 1457 407 Blue 6
12 Noon Fri 76 74 W 5 1709 1575 525 Blue 9
1 PM Fri 77 75 W 5 1868 1611 561 Blue 10
2 PM Fri 76 74 W 9 1709 1575 525 Blue 9
3 PM Fri 77 73 W 9 1653 1540 490 Blue 8
4 PM Fri 76 71 W 9 1577 1457 407 Blue 6
5 PM Fri 75 68 W 8 1459 1050 0 Blue 3
6 PM Fri 72 64 W 8 551 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 70 62 W 8 551 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 67 59 W 3 551 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 66 58 W 3 551 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 65 57 W 3 551 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 64 56 NE 1 551 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 64 56 NE 1 551 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 63 55 NE 1 551 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 62 54 SE 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 60 52 SE 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 60 52 SE 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 59 51 NE 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 59 51 NE 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 60 52 NE 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 63 55 SE 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 68 60 SE 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 73 66 SE 2 987 1050 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 78 74 W 6 1709 1575 525 Blue 9
12 Noon Sat 80 77 W 6 2273 1707 657 Blue 12
1 PM Sat 80 78 W 6 2475 1860 810 Blue 13
2 PM Sat 80 77 W 9 2273 1707 657 Blue 12
3 PM Sat 81 77 W 9 2273 1707 657 Blue 12
4 PM Sat 80 74 W 9 1709 1575 525 Blue 9
5 PM Sat 78 71 W 7 1577 1457 407 Blue 6
6 PM Sat 75 67 W 7 1385 1050 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sat 71 63 W 7 551 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 68 60 W 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 66 58 W 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 65 57 W 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 64 56 E 1 551 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 64 56 E 1 551 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 63 55 E 1 551 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 62 54 E 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 61 53 E 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 61 53 E 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 61 53 NE 1 551 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 62 54 NE 1 551 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 64 56 NE 1 551 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 68 60 S 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 73 65 S 2 643 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 79 72 S 2 1612 1505 455 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 82 78 W 6 2475 1860 810 Blue 13
12 Noon Sun 82 78 W 6 2475 1860 810 Blue 13
1 PM Sun 82 79 W 6 2636 2061 1011 Blue 14
2 PM Sun 80 76 W 8 2071 1651 601 Blue 11
3 PM Sun 80 75 W 8 1868 1611 561 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 81 75 W 8 1868 1611 561 Blue 10
5 PM Sun 80 73 W 7 1653 1540 490 Blue 8
6 PM Sun 76 68 W 7 1459 1050 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sun 71 63 W 7 551 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 67 59 NW 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 64 56 NW 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 63 55 NW 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 63 55 SW 1 551 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 62 54 SW 1 551 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 62 54 SW 1 551 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 61 53 SE 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 61 53 SE 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 61 53 SE 2 551 1050 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst