Detailed Predictions for: Little Black
Launch Altitude (f): 1050
LZ Altitude (f): 750
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

22 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 65 57 NW 3 456 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 65 57 NW 2 456 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 65 57 NW 3 456 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 66 59 NW 3 456 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 69 63 NW 5 456 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 73 69 W 6 1155 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 76 74 W 10 1644 1389 339 Blue 5
12 Noon Sun 78 78 W 10 1912 1705 655 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 79 79 W 9 1995 1761 711 Blue 10
2 PM Sun 80 80 W 12 2062 1816 766 Blue 11
3 PM Sun 79 77 W 12 1819 1642 592 Blue 8
4 PM Sun 80 76 W 12 1763 1579 529 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 78 72 W 9 1511 1152 102 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 76 69 W 9 1155 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 74 66 W 10 456 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 72 64 NW 6 456 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 70 62 W 5 456 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 70 62 W 5 456 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 69 61 W 3 456 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 68 60 W 2 456 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 68 60 W 2 456 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 67 59 W 1 456 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 66 58 NW 1 456 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 66 58 N 0 456 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 66 58 NE 0 456 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 66 58 NE 0 456 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 67 59 W 0 456 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 69 61 W 1 456 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 73 66 W 2 456 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 77 71 W 3 1392 1050 0 Blue 2
11 AM Mon 81 80 W 8 2062 1816 766 Blue 11
12 Noon Mon 84 84 W 8 2958 2256 1206 Blue 15
1 PM Mon 85 85 W 8 3054 2434 1384 Blue 16
2 PM Mon 86 86 W 9 3157 2623 1573 Blue 17
3 PM Mon 85 83 W 9 2648 2059 1009 Blue 14
4 PM Mon 86 82 W 9 2444 1992 942 Blue 13
5 PM Mon 85 79 W 8 1995 1761 711 Blue 10
6 PM Mon 82 75 W 8 1707 1507 457 Blue 6
7 PM Mon 79 71 W 7 1392 1050 0 Blue 2
8 PM Mon 76 68 W 5 841 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 74 66 W 5 456 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 72 64 W 5 456 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 71 63 SW 3 456 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 71 63 S 2 456 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 70 62 S 2 456 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 70 62 S 2 456 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 69 61 S 2 456 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 68 60 S 2 456 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 68 60 S 1 456 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 69 61 SE 1 456 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 71 63 S 1 456 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 75 67 SW 2 514 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 80 73 SW 3 1581 1271 221 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 85 80 W 5 2062 1816 766 Blue 11
11 AM Tue 89 88 W 8 3377 3047 1997 Blue 19
12 Noon Tue 92 92 W 9 4119 3477 2427 Blue 23
1 PM Tue 91 91 W 9 3830 3367 2317 Blue 22
2 PM Tue 92 92 W 10 4119 3477 2427 Blue 23
3 PM Tue 91 89 W 10 3487 3148 2098 Blue 20
4 PM Tue 90 87 W 9 3267 2951 1901 Blue 18
5 PM Tue 89 83 W 8 2648 2059 1009 Blue 14
6 PM Tue 87 80 W 6 2062 1816 766 Blue 11
7 PM Tue 85 77 W 3 1819 1642 592 Blue 8
8 PM Tue 82 74 W 2 1644 1389 339 Blue 5
9 PM Tue 79 71 SW 2 1392 1050 0 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 76 68 SW 3 841 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 74 66 SW 5 456 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 73 65 SW 5 456 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 72 64 SW 3 456 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 72 64 S 3 456 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 70 62 S 2 456 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 69 61 SE 1 456 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 69 61 E 1 456 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 70 62 E 1 456 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 73 65 E 1 456 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 78 71 W 1 1392 1050 0 Blue 2
9 AM Wed 83 77 W 1 1819 1642 592 Blue 8
10 AM Wed 89 84 W 1 2958 2256 1206 Blue 15
11 AM Wed 94 93 W 9 4229 3586 2536 Blue 24
12 Noon Wed 95 95 W 9 4510 4095 3045 Blue 26
1 PM Wed 94 94 W 9 4338 3800 2750 Blue 25
2 PM Wed 93 93 W 10 4229 3586 2536 Blue 24
3 PM Wed 91 89 W 10 3487 3148 2098 Blue 20
4 PM Wed 90 86 W 10 3157 2623 1573 Blue 17
5 PM Wed 88 82 W 8 2444 1992 942 Blue 13
6 PM Wed 86 79 W 8 1995 1761 711 Blue 10
7 PM Wed 83 75 W 8 1707 1507 457 Blue 6
8 PM Wed 80 72 SW 5 1511 1152 102 Blue 3
9 PM Wed 78 70 SW 5 1273 1050 0 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 77 69 SW 5 1155 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 76 68 S 3 841 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 74 66 S 3 456 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 73 65 S 3 456 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 71 63 S 1 456 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 70 62 S 1 456 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 70 62 S 1 456 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 70 62 S 2 456 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 70 62 S 2 456 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 71 63 S 2 456 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 74 67 SW 2 514 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 78 72 SW 2 1511 1152 102 Blue 3
10 AM Thu 83 79 SW 2 1995 1761 711 Blue 10
11 AM Thu 87 85 SW 10 3054 2434 1384 Blue 16
12 Noon Thu 89 89 SW 10 3487 3148 2098 Blue 20
1 PM Thu 89 89 SW 10 3487 3148 2098 Blue 20
2 PM Thu 88 88 SW 12 3377 3047 1997 Blue 19
3 PM Thu 87 85 SW 12 3054 2434 1384 Blue 16
4 PM Thu 86 82 SW 12 2444 1992 942 Blue 13
5 PM Thu 84 78 SW 9 1912 1705 655 Blue 9
6 PM Thu 82 75 SW 9 1707 1507 457 Blue 6
7 PM Thu 80 72 SW 9 1511 1152 102 Blue 3
8 PM Thu 78 70 S 7 1273 1050 0 Blue 1
9 PM Thu 76 68 S 7 841 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 76 68 S 7 841 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 75 67 S 3 514 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 74 66 S 3 456 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 73 65 S 3 456 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 72 64 S 1 456 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 70 62 S 1 456 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 68 60 S 1 456 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 68 60 SE 2 456 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 69 61 SE 2 456 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 71 63 SE 2 456 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 74 66 W 0 456 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 78 71 W 0 1392 1050 0 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 81 75 W 0 1707 1507 457 Blue 6
11 AM Fri 84 82 SW 10 2444 1992 942 Blue 13
12 Noon Fri 85 84 SW 10 2958 2256 1206 Blue 15
1 PM Fri 85 84 SW 10 2958 2256 1206 Blue 15
2 PM Fri 84 83 SW 14 2648 2059 1009 Blue 14
3 PM Fri 83 80 SW 14 2062 1816 766 Blue 11
4 PM Fri 82 78 SW 14 1912 1705 655 Blue 9
5 PM Fri 81 75 SW 9 1707 1507 457 Blue 6
6 PM Fri 79 72 SW 9 1511 1152 102 Blue 3
7 PM Fri 76 68 SW 9 841 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 74 66 SW 5 456 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 73 65 SW 5 456 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 72 64 SW 5 456 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 72 64 SW 1 456 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 71 63 SW 1 456 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 70 62 SW 1 456 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 69 61 W 1 456 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 68 60 W 1 456 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 67 59 W 1 456 1050 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst