Detailed Predictions for: Little Black
Launch Altitude (f): 1050
LZ Altitude (f): 750
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

23 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 58 50 SE 7 525 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 58 50 SE 7 525 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 58 50 SE 7 525 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 60 52 SE 7 525 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 63 55 SE 6 525 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 66 59 SE 6 525 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 69 64 SW 7 525 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 71 67 SW 7 2725 1050 0 Blue 1
1 PM Sat 72 68 SW 8 2903 1050 0 Blue 2
2 PM Sat 72 67 W 13 2725 1050 0 Blue 1
3 PM Sat 71 66 W 13 525 1050 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 71 64 W 13 525 1050 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 69 62 W 10 525 1050 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 66 58 W 10 525 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 62 54 W 9 525 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 60 52 NW 3 525 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 60 52 NW 3 525 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 59 51 N 3 525 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 59 51 NE 5 525 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 59 51 NE 5 525 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 59 51 NE 3 525 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 59 51 NE 3 525 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 58 50 NE 3 525 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 58 50 NE 3 525 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 58 50 NE 3 525 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 58 50 NE 3 525 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 59 51 NE 5 525 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 62 54 E 3 525 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 67 60 SE 2 525 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 72 67 SE 1 2725 1050 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 76 73 W 6 4533 3569 2519 White 7
12 Noon Sun 79 77 W 7 5400 4968 3918 White 11
1 PM Sun 81 79 W 8 5821 5343 4293 White 13
2 PM Sun 81 78 W 14 5611 5125 4075 White 12
3 PM Sun 80 76 W 14 5187 4853 3803 White 10
4 PM Sun 79 73 W 14 4533 3569 2519 White 7
5 PM Sun 76 69 W 13 3245 1050 0 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 72 64 W 12 525 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 65 57 W 9 525 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 63 55 N 2 525 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 62 54 N 2 525 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 60 52 N 2 525 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 60 52 NE 2 525 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 60 52 NE 2 525 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 60 52 NE 2 525 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 61 53 E 5 525 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 60 52 E 5 525 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 60 52 E 5 525 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 60 52 E 7 525 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 59 51 E 7 525 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 60 52 E 7 525 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 63 55 NE 2 525 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 68 61 NE 2 525 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 73 68 NE 2 2903 1050 0 Blue 2
11 AM Mon 78 75 W 12 4973 4496 3446 White 9
12 Noon Mon 81 79 W 12 5821 5343 4293 White 13
1 PM Mon 83 81 W 12 6240 6077 5027 White 15
2 PM Mon 83 81 W 13 6240 6077 5027 White 15
3 PM Mon 82 78 W 13 5611 5125 4075 White 12
4 PM Mon 81 75 W 13 4973 4496 3446 White 9
5 PM Mon 78 71 W 10 4105 2890 1840 White 5
6 PM Mon 73 65 W 10 525 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 66 58 W 10 525 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 64 56 SW 3 525 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 63 55 SW 3 525 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 62 54 SW 3 525 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 62 54 SE 3 525 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 61 53 SE 3 525 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 62 54 SE 3 525 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 62 54 E 8 525 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 61 53 E 8 525 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 61 53 E 8 525 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 60 52 E 7 525 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 60 52 E 7 525 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 61 53 E 7 525 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 64 56 E 9 525 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 69 62 E 9 525 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 74 69 E 9 3245 1050 0 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 79 75 W 8 4973 4496 3446 White 9
12 Noon Tue 82 79 W 8 5821 5343 4293 White 13
1 PM Tue 84 82 W 8 6449 6444 5394 White 16
2 PM Tue 84 81 W 15 6240 6077 5027 White 15
3 PM Tue 84 80 W 15 6030 5706 4656 White 14
4 PM Tue 82 76 W 15 5187 4853 3803 White 10
5 PM Tue 79 72 W 10 4320 3236 2186 White 6
6 PM Tue 75 67 W 10 2725 1050 0 Blue 1
7 PM Tue 69 61 W 10 525 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 67 59 N 3 525 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 65 57 N 3 525 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 64 56 N 3 525 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 64 56 NE 5 525 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 64 56 NE 5 525 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 64 56 NE 5 525 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 64 56 E 3 525 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 64 56 E 3 525 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 64 56 E 3 525 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 63 55 NE 3 525 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 63 55 NE 3 525 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 64 56 NE 3 525 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 66 58 NE 6 525 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 71 64 NE 6 525 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 76 71 NE 6 4105 2890 1840 White 5
11 AM Wed 80 77 W 8 5400 4968 3918 White 11
12 Noon Wed 82 80 W 8 6030 5706 4656 White 14
1 PM Wed 84 82 W 8 6449 6444 5394 White 16
2 PM Wed 84 81 W 14 6240 6077 5027 White 15
3 PM Wed 84 80 W 14 6030 5706 4656 White 14
4 PM Wed 82 76 W 14 5187 4853 3803 White 10
5 PM Wed 79 72 W 9 4320 3236 2186 White 6
6 PM Wed 75 67 W 9 2725 1050 0 Blue 1
7 PM Wed 69 61 W 9 525 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 67 59 W 2 525 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 65 57 W 2 525 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 64 56 W 2 525 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 64 56 N 2 525 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 64 56 N 2 525 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 64 56 N 2 525 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 64 56 NE 3 525 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 64 56 NE 3 525 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 64 56 NE 3 525 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 63 55 NE 2 525 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 63 55 NE 2 525 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 64 56 NE 2 525 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 67 59 NE 3 525 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 72 65 NE 3 525 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 77 72 NE 3 4320 3236 2186 White 6
11 AM Thu 81 78 W 9 5611 5125 4075 White 12
12 Noon Thu 84 82 W 9 6449 6444 5394 White 16
1 PM Thu 86 84 W 9 6868 6868 5818 White 18
2 PM Thu 86 83 W 14 6660 6660 5610 White 17
3 PM Thu 86 82 W 14 6449 6444 5394 White 16
4 PM Thu 84 78 W 14 5611 5125 4075 White 12
5 PM Thu 81 74 NW 10 4759 4270 3220 White 8
6 PM Thu 77 69 NW 10 3245 1050 0 Blue 3
7 PM Thu 71 63 NW 10 525 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 69 61 NW 5 525 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 67 59 NW 5 525 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 66 58 NW 5 525 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 66 58 E 3 525 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 66 58 E 3 525 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 66 58 E 3 525 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 66 58 E 5 525 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 66 58 E 5 525 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 66 58 E 5 525 1050 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst