Detailed Predictions for: Little Black
Launch Altitude (f): 1050
LZ Altitude (f): 750
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

16 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 62 54 NE 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 64 56 E 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 67 59 E 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 72 65 SW 2 882 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 77 71 SW 2 1076 1050 0 Blue 6
10 AM Tue 81 77 SW 3 1276 1174 124 Blue 12
11 AM Tue 85 84 W 6 1594 1457 407 Blue 18
12 Noon Tue 85 85 W 7 1640 1502 452 Blue 19
1 PM Tue 85 85 W 8 1640 1502 452 Blue 19
2 PM Tue 85 85 W 8 1640 1502 452 Blue 19
3 PM Tue 84 83 W 8 1549 1411 361 Blue 17
4 PM Tue 83 80 W 8 1413 1275 225 Blue 15
5 PM Tue 81 75 W 7 1208 1109 59 Blue 10
6 PM Tue 77 70 W 7 1043 1050 0 Blue 5
7 PM Tue 73 65 W 6 882 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 69 61 W 5 557 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 66 58 SW 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 64 56 SW 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 63 55 SW 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 63 55 S 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 62 54 S 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 62 54 S 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 62 54 S 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 62 54 S 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 61 53 S 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 60 52 S 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 60 52 S 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 62 54 S 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 67 59 S 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 73 65 SW 6 882 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 78 77 SW 7 1276 1174 124 Blue 12
12 Noon Wed 79 79 SW 8 1367 1240 190 Blue 14
1 PM Wed 80 80 SW 9 1413 1275 225 Blue 15
2 PM Wed 79 79 SW 10 1367 1240 190 Blue 14
3 PM Wed 78 76 SW 10 1241 1141 91 Blue 11
4 PM Wed 77 74 SW 9 1175 1076 26 Blue 9
5 PM Wed 75 69 SW 8 1015 1050 0 Blue 4
6 PM Wed 72 65 SW 7 882 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 69 61 SW 6 557 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 66 58 SW 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 64 56 SW 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 63 55 SW 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 63 55 SW 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 63 55 SW 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 62 54 SW 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 62 54 SW 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 62 54 SW 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 62 54 SW 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 62 54 W 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 61 53 W 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 61 53 W 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 62 54 W 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 66 58 W 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 71 63 W 5 719 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 74 71 W 6 1076 1050 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Thu 75 74 W 8 1175 1076 26 Blue 9
1 PM Thu 76 75 W 9 1208 1109 59 Blue 10
2 PM Thu 75 73 W 9 1142 1050 0 Blue 8
3 PM Thu 75 72 W 9 1109 1050 0 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 74 70 W 9 1043 1050 0 Blue 5
5 PM Thu 72 66 W 8 934 1050 0 Blue 1
6 PM Thu 70 63 W 8 719 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 67 59 W 7 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 65 57 W 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 63 55 W 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 63 55 W 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 62 54 W 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 61 53 NW 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 60 52 N 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 60 52 N 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 60 52 N 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 61 53 N 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 61 53 N 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 60 52 N 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 60 52 N 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 61 53 N 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 65 57 N 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 70 62 N 2 638 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 74 73 W 6 1142 1050 0 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 74 74 W 6 1175 1076 26 Blue 9
1 PM Fri 75 75 W 6 1208 1109 59 Blue 10
2 PM Fri 74 74 W 10 1175 1076 26 Blue 9
3 PM Fri 73 71 W 10 1076 1050 0 Blue 6
4 PM Fri 73 70 W 10 1043 1050 0 Blue 5
5 PM Fri 71 66 W 8 934 1050 0 Blue 1
6 PM Fri 69 62 W 8 638 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 66 58 W 8 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 64 56 W 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 62 54 W 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 61 53 W 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 61 53 W 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 60 52 W 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 60 52 W 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 60 52 W 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 60 52 W 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 60 52 W 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 60 52 NE 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 60 52 NE 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 61 53 NE 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 62 54 N 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 66 58 N 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 70 62 N 2 638 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 73 71 W 7 1076 1050 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 75 74 W 7 1175 1076 26 Blue 9
1 PM Sat 74 74 W 7 1175 1076 26 Blue 9
2 PM Sat 75 74 W 12 1175 1076 26 Blue 9
3 PM Sat 74 72 W 12 1109 1050 0 Blue 7
4 PM Sat 73 69 W 12 1015 1050 0 Blue 4
5 PM Sat 72 66 W 9 934 1050 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sat 70 63 W 9 719 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 68 60 W 9 476 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 65 57 W 7 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 64 56 W 7 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 63 55 W 7 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 63 55 NW 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 62 54 NW 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 60 52 NW 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 60 52 N 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 60 52 N 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 61 53 N 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 62 54 N 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 62 54 N 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 62 54 N 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 64 56 NW 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 67 59 NW 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 71 63 NW 2 719 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 75 73 W 8 1142 1050 0 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 75 74 W 8 1175 1076 26 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 76 75 W 8 1208 1109 59 Blue 10
2 PM Sun 75 73 W 10 1142 1050 0 Blue 8
3 PM Sun 75 72 W 10 1109 1050 0 Blue 7
4 PM Sun 75 71 W 10 1076 1050 0 Blue 6
5 PM Sun 75 69 W 9 1015 1050 0 Blue 4
6 PM Sun 73 66 W 9 934 1050 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 71 63 W 9 719 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 69 61 W 6 557 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 67 59 W 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 66 58 W 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 65 57 W 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 64 56 W 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 64 56 W 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 64 56 NW 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 63 55 NW 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 62 54 NW 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst