Detailed Predictions for: Little Black
Launch Altitude (f): 1050
LZ Altitude (f): 750
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

26 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 56 48 SE 7 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 56 48 SE 7 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 56 48 S 7 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 55 47 S 7 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 55 47 S 7 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 54 46 SW 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 55 48 W 8 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 56 49 W 8 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 57 50 W 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 59 52 SW 10 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 58 51 SW 10 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 59 51 SW 10 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 58 50 SW 10 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 57 49 SW 10 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 56 48 W 10 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 55 47 SW 8 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 55 47 W 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 55 47 W 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 55 47 W 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 54 46 W 10 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 54 46 W 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 53 45 W 7 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 52 44 W 7 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 51 43 W 7 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 51 43 W 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 52 44 W 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 53 45 W 7 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 55 47 W 8 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 56 49 W 8 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 58 52 W 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 59 56 W 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 60 58 W 10 1165 1050 0 White 1
1 PM Mon 61 59 W 10 1384 1050 0 White 2
2 PM Mon 62 60 W 12 1603 1050 0 White 3
3 PM Mon 61 57 W 12 564 1050 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 62 57 W 12 564 1050 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 61 54 W 10 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 59 51 W 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 58 50 W 8 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 56 48 NW 7 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 56 48 NW 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 55 47 NW 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 54 46 NW 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 54 46 W 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 53 45 W 0 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 52 44 W 0 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 52 44 SW 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 52 44 S 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 53 45 SE 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 53 45 SE 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 55 47 SE 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 57 49 S 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 59 51 S 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 61 53 SW 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 64 60 SW 7 1603 1050 0 White 3
12 Noon Tue 65 61 SW 8 1822 1304 254 White 4
1 PM Tue 66 62 W 9 2039 1866 816 White 5
2 PM Tue 67 63 W 10 2261 2261 1211 White 6
3 PM Tue 66 61 W 10 1822 1304 254 White 4
4 PM Tue 67 61 W 10 1822 1304 254 White 4
5 PM Tue 66 59 W 8 1384 1050 0 White 2
6 PM Tue 64 56 W 7 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 62 54 W 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 61 53 W 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 60 52 W 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 60 52 SW 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 60 52 SW 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 59 51 SW 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 58 50 S 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 57 49 S 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 56 48 S 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 56 48 S 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 56 48 S 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 55 47 S 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 55 47 S 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 56 48 S 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 60 52 S 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 64 57 S 3 564 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 67 65 SW 8 2706 2706 1656 White 8
12 Noon Wed 69 68 SW 8 3346 3346 2296 White 11
1 PM Wed 69 68 SW 8 3346 3346 2296 White 11
2 PM Wed 68 67 SW 10 3133 3133 2083 White 10
3 PM Wed 68 65 SW 10 2706 2706 1656 White 8
4 PM Wed 68 64 SW 10 2492 2492 1442 White 7
5 PM Wed 67 61 SW 9 1822 1304 254 White 4
6 PM Wed 65 57 SW 9 564 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 63 55 SW 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 62 54 SW 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 60 52 SW 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 59 51 SW 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 58 50 S 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 58 50 S 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 57 49 S 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 57 49 S 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 57 49 S 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 56 48 S 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 56 48 S 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 56 48 S 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 57 49 S 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 59 51 S 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 62 54 S 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 67 60 S 3 1603 1050 0 White 3
11 AM Thu 70 69 W 7 3558 3558 2508 White 12
12 Noon Thu 71 71 W 7 3982 3982 2932 White 14
1 PM Thu 71 71 W 7 3982 3982 2932 White 14
2 PM Thu 70 69 W 10 3558 3558 2508 White 12
3 PM Thu 70 68 W 10 3346 3346 2296 White 11
4 PM Thu 69 65 W 10 2706 2706 1656 White 8
5 PM Thu 68 62 W 8 2039 1866 816 White 5
6 PM Thu 66 58 W 8 1165 1050 0 White 1
7 PM Thu 64 56 W 8 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 62 54 W 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 60 52 W 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 59 51 W 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 58 50 S 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 58 50 S 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 58 50 S 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 58 50 SW 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 58 50 SW 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 57 49 SW 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 57 49 SW 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 56 48 SW 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 56 48 SW 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 57 49 S 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 61 53 S 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 65 57 S 2 564 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 68 67 W 8 3133 3133 2083 White 10
12 Noon Fri 70 70 W 8 3771 3771 2721 White 13
1 PM Fri 70 70 W 8 3771 3771 2721 White 13
2 PM Fri 70 69 W 10 3558 3558 2508 White 12
3 PM Fri 70 68 W 10 3346 3346 2296 White 11
4 PM Fri 69 65 W 10 2706 2706 1656 White 8
5 PM Fri 68 62 W 9 2039 1866 816 White 5
6 PM Fri 66 58 W 9 1165 1050 0 White 1
7 PM Fri 62 54 W 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 60 52 SW 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 58 50 SW 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 58 50 SW 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 58 50 SW 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 58 50 SW 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 58 50 SW 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 57 49 S 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 57 49 S 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 56 48 S 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst