Detailed Predictions for: Little Black
Launch Altitude (f): 1050
LZ Altitude (f): 750
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

11 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Mon 53 45 N 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 52 44 N 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 51 43 NE 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 52 44 NE 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 55 47 N 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 59 51 NW 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 64 58 W 3 698 1050 0 White 0
11 AM Mon 68 63 W 5 1795 1749 699 White 4
12 Noon Mon 70 65 W 6 1869 1825 775 Blue 6
1 PM Mon 70 65 W 7 1869 1825 775 Blue 6
2 PM Mon 70 64 W 7 1855 1795 745 Blue 5
3 PM Mon 68 61 W 7 1358 1050 0 White 0
4 PM Mon 65 57 W 5 600 1050 0 White 0
5 PM Mon 63 55 W 3 600 1050 0 White 0
6 PM Mon 60 52 W 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 58 50 NW 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 58 50 NW 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 57 49 NW 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 57 49 W 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 57 49 W 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 56 48 W 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 55 47 NW 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 54 46 NW 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 54 46 N 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 53 45 NE 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 52 44 N 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 52 44 NW 0 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 55 47 NW 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 60 52 NW 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 66 59 W 3 918 1050 0 White 0
10 AM Tue 72 66 W 5 1883 1840 790 Blue 7
11 AM Tue 75 70 W 6 1959 1897 847 Blue 11
12 Noon Tue 77 72 W 7 2044 1926 876 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 76 71 W 7 2001 1912 862 Blue 12
2 PM Tue 77 71 W 7 2001 1912 862 Blue 12
3 PM Tue 75 68 W 6 1912 1868 818 Blue 9
4 PM Tue 73 65 W 5 1869 1825 775 Blue 6
5 PM Tue 68 60 W 3 1138 1050 0 White 0
6 PM Tue 63 55 NW 2 600 1050 0 White 0
7 PM Tue 58 50 NW 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 56 48 NW 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 55 47 N 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 54 46 N 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 54 46 N 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 55 47 N 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 55 47 N 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 55 47 N 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 55 47 N 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 55 47 N 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 54 46 N 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 54 46 W 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 56 48 W 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 60 52 W 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 66 59 W 2 918 1050 0 White 0
10 AM Wed 72 65 W 3 1869 1825 775 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 75 69 W 6 1927 1883 833 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 75 69 W 7 1927 1883 833 Blue 10
1 PM Wed 75 68 W 8 1912 1868 818 Blue 9
2 PM Wed 74 67 W 8 1898 1854 804 Blue 8
3 PM Wed 71 63 W 7 1795 1749 699 White 4
4 PM Wed 68 60 W 6 1138 1050 0 White 0
5 PM Wed 64 56 NW 5 600 1050 0 White 0
6 PM Wed 61 53 N 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 58 50 NE 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 57 49 N 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 57 49 NW 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 56 48 W 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 56 48 W 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 55 47 NW 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 54 46 NW 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 54 46 NW 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 54 46 NW 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 53 45 N 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 53 45 N 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 53 45 N 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 55 47 NW 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 60 52 NW 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 65 57 NW 2 600 1050 0 White 0
10 AM Thu 70 63 W 5 1795 1749 699 White 4
11 AM Thu 72 66 W 5 1883 1840 790 Blue 7
12 Noon Thu 72 66 W 5 1883 1840 790 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 72 65 W 8 1869 1825 775 Blue 6
2 PM Thu 70 63 W 8 1795 1749 699 White 4
3 PM Thu 67 59 W 8 918 1050 0 White 0
4 PM Thu 64 56 NW 7 600 1050 0 White 0
5 PM Thu 61 53 NW 7 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 58 50 NW 7 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 57 49 NW 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 56 48 NW 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 56 48 NW 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 56 48 NW 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 56 48 NW 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 56 48 NW 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 57 49 N 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 57 49 N 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 58 50 N 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 57 49 NW 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 55 47 NW 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 54 46 NW 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 55 47 NE 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 59 51 NE 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 65 57 NE 1 600 1050 0 White 0
10 AM Fri 70 64 W 6 1855 1795 745 Blue 5
11 AM Fri 72 66 W 6 1883 1840 790 Blue 7
12 Noon Fri 72 66 W 6 1883 1840 790 Blue 7
1 PM Fri 73 67 W 9 1898 1854 804 Blue 8
2 PM Fri 72 65 W 9 1869 1825 775 Blue 6
3 PM Fri 70 62 W 9 1577 1577 527 White 0
4 PM Fri 68 60 W 6 1138 1050 0 White 0
5 PM Fri 64 56 W 6 600 1050 0 White 0
6 PM Fri 60 52 W 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 58 50 NW 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 57 49 NW 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 58 50 NW 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 58 50 NE 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 57 49 NE 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 55 47 NE 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 54 46 NW 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 53 45 NW 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 52 44 NW 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 52 44 N 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 52 44 N 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 52 44 N 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 55 47 W 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 59 51 W 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 65 58 W 1 698 1050 0 White 0
10 AM Sat 71 65 W 5 1869 1825 775 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 74 69 W 5 1927 1883 833 Blue 10
12 Noon Sat 76 71 W 5 2001 1912 862 Blue 12
1 PM Sat 75 70 W 8 1959 1897 847 Blue 11
2 PM Sat 74 68 W 8 1912 1868 818 Blue 9
3 PM Sat 71 64 W 8 1855 1795 745 Blue 5
4 PM Sat 67 59 NW 6 918 1050 0 White 0
5 PM Sat 63 55 NW 6 600 1050 0 White 0
6 PM Sat 59 51 NW 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 57 49 N 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 56 48 N 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 56 48 N 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 57 49 E 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 58 50 E 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 58 50 E 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 58 50 NE 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 58 50 NE 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 57 49 NE 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst