Detailed Predictions for: Little Black
Launch Altitude (f): 1050
LZ Altitude (f): 750
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Tue 55 47 E 15 522 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 55 47 E 18 522 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 56 48 E 17 522 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 58 50 E 20 522 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 61 53 E 18 522 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 65 58 E 20 593 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 69 63 E 23 724 1050 0 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 72 67 E 23 2817 1050 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Tue 74 69 E 23 3927 2159 1109 Blue 7
1 PM Tue 74 68 E 21 3383 1518 468 Blue 6
2 PM Tue 75 68 E 21 3383 1518 468 Blue 6
3 PM Tue 73 65 E 21 1538 1050 0 Blue 3
4 PM Tue 70 62 E 18 667 1050 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 66 58 E 16 593 1050 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 61 53 E 15 522 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 58 50 E 12 522 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 56 48 E 12 522 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 56 48 E 8 522 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 56 48 E 5 522 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 56 48 E 5 522 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 55 47 NE 6 522 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 55 47 E 6 522 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 55 47 SE 6 522 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 55 47 SE 5 522 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 55 47 E 5 522 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 54 46 E 6 522 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 54 46 E 7 522 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 56 48 E 8 522 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 60 52 E 8 522 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 66 59 SE 5 610 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 71 65 SE 5 1538 1050 0 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 75 70 SE 3 4340 2775 1725 Blue 8
12 Noon Wed 77 72 E 3 4467 3870 2820 Blue 10
1 PM Wed 78 72 E 5 4467 3870 2820 Blue 10
2 PM Wed 78 71 E 8 4426 3334 2284 Blue 9
3 PM Wed 79 71 E 12 4426 3334 2284 Blue 9
4 PM Wed 77 69 E 14 3927 2159 1109 Blue 7
5 PM Wed 73 65 E 13 1538 1050 0 Blue 3
6 PM Wed 69 61 NE 9 645 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 65 57 NE 7 575 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 62 54 NE 6 524 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 60 52 NE 6 522 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 59 51 NE 6 522 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 58 50 NE 6 522 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 56 48 E 6 522 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 55 47 E 6 522 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 54 46 E 6 522 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 53 45 E 6 522 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 53 45 E 6 522 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 54 46 E 6 522 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 56 48 SE 6 522 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 59 51 SE 6 522 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 64 56 S 6 558 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 69 62 SW 6 667 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 73 67 SW 6 2817 1050 0 Blue 5
11 AM Thu 74 69 W 7 3927 2159 1109 Blue 7
12 Noon Thu 75 70 W 9 4340 2775 1725 Blue 8
1 PM Thu 75 69 W 10 3927 2159 1109 Blue 7
2 PM Thu 74 68 W 9 3383 1518 468 Blue 6
3 PM Thu 75 68 W 8 3383 1518 468 Blue 6
4 PM Thu 73 65 W 7 1538 1050 0 Blue 3
5 PM Thu 69 61 W 5 645 1050 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 64 56 S 2 558 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 60 52 SE 1 522 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 58 50 SE 1 522 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 57 49 SE 1 522 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 57 49 SE 2 522 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 57 49 SE 2 522 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 56 48 SE 2 522 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 55 47 SE 2 522 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 54 46 SE 3 522 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 52 44 SE 3 522 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 51 43 SE 3 522 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 51 43 SE 3 522 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 52 44 SE 3 522 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 55 47 SE 3 522 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 60 52 SE 3 522 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 65 58 SE 3 593 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 70 64 SW 5 852 1050 0 Blue 2
11 AM Fri 73 67 SW 5 2817 1050 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Fri 74 68 SW 5 3383 1518 468 Blue 6
1 PM Fri 74 68 W 9 3383 1518 468 Blue 6
2 PM Fri 73 66 W 9 2191 1050 0 Blue 4
3 PM Fri 71 63 W 9 724 1050 0 Blue 1
4 PM Fri 69 61 W 7 645 1050 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 66 58 W 7 593 1050 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 63 55 W 7 541 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 61 53 SW 0 522 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 59 51 SW 0 522 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 58 50 SW 0 522 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 58 50 SE 3 522 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 57 49 SE 3 522 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 56 48 SE 3 522 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 55 47 SE 3 522 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 54 46 SE 3 522 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 54 46 SE 3 522 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 54 46 E 5 522 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 54 46 E 5 522 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 55 47 E 5 522 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 57 49 E 3 522 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 60 52 E 3 522 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 64 56 E 3 558 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 68 62 SW 3 667 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 71 65 SW 3 1538 1050 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Sat 72 66 SW 3 2191 1050 0 Blue 4
1 PM Sat 72 66 W 9 2191 1050 0 Blue 4
2 PM Sat 71 64 W 9 852 1050 0 Blue 2
3 PM Sat 69 61 W 9 645 1050 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 66 58 W 6 593 1050 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 63 55 W 6 541 1050 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 60 52 W 6 522 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 57 49 N 1 522 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 56 48 N 1 522 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 54 46 N 1 522 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 54 46 E 1 522 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 54 46 E 1 522 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 54 46 E 1 522 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 54 46 E 1 522 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 54 46 E 1 522 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 54 46 E 1 522 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 53 45 E 1 522 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 52 44 E 1 522 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 52 44 E 1 522 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 54 46 NE 1 522 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 59 51 NE 1 522 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 65 57 NE 1 575 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 70 64 W 5 852 1050 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 72 66 W 5 2191 1050 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 72 66 W 5 2191 1050 0 Blue 4
1 PM Sun 71 65 W 8 1538 1050 0 Blue 3
2 PM Sun 71 64 W 8 852 1050 0 Blue 2
3 PM Sun 72 64 W 8 852 1050 0 Blue 2
4 PM Sun 70 62 W 7 667 1050 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 66 58 W 7 593 1050 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 61 53 W 7 522 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 56 48 W 1 522 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 54 46 W 1 522 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 54 46 W 1 522 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 54 46 NE 1 522 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 54 46 NE 1 522 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 54 46 NE 1 522 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 54 46 NE 1 522 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 54 46 NE 1 522 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 55 47 NE 1 522 1050 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst