Detailed Predictions for: Little Black
Launch Altitude (f): 1050
LZ Altitude (f): 750
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Thu 54 46 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 53 45 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 53 45 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 53 45 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 54 46 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 56 48 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 58 50 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 60 52 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 62 54 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 62 54 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 61 53 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 62 54 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 61 53 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 58 50 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 57 49 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 56 48 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 55 47 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 54 46 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 54 46 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 52 44 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 51 43 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 52 44 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 51 43 NW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 51 43 N 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 51 43 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 50 42 E 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 50 42 NE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 50 42 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 51 43 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 54 46 NW 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 57 50 W 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 60 54 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 63 57 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 63 57 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 62 55 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 63 55 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 62 54 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 59 51 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 57 49 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 56 48 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 55 47 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 53 45 NW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 53 45 NW 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 52 44 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 51 43 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 51 43 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 50 42 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 50 42 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 50 42 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 49 41 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 49 41 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 49 41 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 51 43 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 58 51 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 65 59 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 72 66 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 77 72 NE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 78 72 NE 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 77 70 NE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 77 70 E 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 75 67 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 70 62 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 65 57 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 63 55 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 60 52 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 58 50 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 57 49 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 55 47 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 52 44 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 53 45 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 52 44 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 51 43 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 51 43 SE 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 49 41 SE 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 49 41 SE 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 49 41 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 50 42 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 56 48 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 62 55 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 68 61 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 71 64 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 72 65 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 72 65 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 71 63 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 70 62 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 65 57 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 62 54 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 60 52 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 58 50 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 56 48 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 56 48 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 54 46 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 52 44 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 52 44 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 51 43 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 50 42 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 50 42 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 49 41 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 49 41 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 49 41 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 50 42 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 53 45 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 57 51 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 61 55 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 64 59 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 64 58 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 64 58 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 64 57 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 62 54 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 59 51 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 56 48 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 55 47 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 53 45 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 52 44 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 51 43 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 50 42 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 48 40 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 48 40 NE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 48 40 NE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 47 39 NE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 47 39 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 46 38 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 46 38 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 46 38 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 48 40 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 53 46 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 60 54 E 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 65 60 E 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 69 64 E 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 70 64 E 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 70 64 E 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 69 62 E 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 68 60 E 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 62 54 E 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 58 50 E 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 57 49 E 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 54 46 E 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 52 44 E 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 52 44 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 49 41 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 47 39 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 47 39 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 46 38 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 46 38 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst