Detailed Predictions for: Little Black
Launch Altitude (f): 1050
LZ Altitude (f): 750
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

17 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 52 44 E 2 548 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 51 43 E 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 51 43 E 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 52 44 E 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 53 45 E 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 59 51 SE 2 548 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 64 57 SW 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 71 65 W 5 743 1050 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 74 68 W 5 1080 1050 0 Blue 4
1 PM Wed 73 67 W 7 879 1050 0 Blue 3
2 PM Wed 73 66 W 7 811 1050 0 Blue 2
3 PM Wed 72 64 W 7 682 1050 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 69 61 NW 6 611 1050 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 64 56 NW 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 60 52 NW 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 59 51 NE 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 58 50 NE 1 548 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 58 50 NW 0 548 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 57 49 S 1 548 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 56 48 S 1 548 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 56 48 SE 0 548 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 54 46 E 2 548 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 53 45 E 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 53 45 SE 2 548 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 53 45 E 1 548 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 53 45 E 2 548 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 52 44 E 2 548 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 53 45 SE 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 54 46 SE 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 59 52 S 2 548 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 64 57 SW 5 548 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 70 64 W 6 682 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 73 67 W 6 879 1050 0 Blue 3
1 PM Thu 72 66 W 6 811 1050 0 Blue 2
2 PM Thu 72 65 W 6 743 1050 0 Blue 1
3 PM Thu 71 63 W 6 658 1050 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 68 60 W 5 587 1050 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 63 55 W 5 548 1050 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 60 52 W 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 59 51 W 2 548 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 58 50 W 2 548 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 57 49 W 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 57 49 W 1 548 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 56 48 W 1 548 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 56 48 S 0 548 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 54 46 SE 1 548 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 53 45 E 1 548 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 53 45 E 2 548 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 53 45 E 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 52 44 SE 2 548 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 52 44 S 2 548 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 52 44 SW 1 548 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 53 45 W 5 548 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 55 47 W 7 548 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 58 50 W 8 548 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 61 53 W 10 548 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 62 54 W 9 548 1050 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 61 53 W 14 548 1050 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 61 53 W 15 548 1050 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 60 52 W 15 548 1050 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 58 50 W 13 548 1050 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 54 46 W 13 548 1050 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 51 43 W 13 548 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 51 43 W 13 548 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 50 42 NW 13 548 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 49 41 NW 13 548 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 49 41 NW 13 548 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 48 40 NW 13 548 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 48 40 NW 13 548 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 47 39 NW 14 548 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 46 38 NW 9 548 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 46 38 NW 9 548 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 46 38 N 8 548 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 45 37 N 8 548 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 45 37 N 8 548 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 46 38 N 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 46 38 N 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 50 42 N 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 54 47 W 5 548 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 58 52 W 5 548 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 60 54 W 5 548 1050 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 60 54 W 8 548 1050 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 60 53 W 8 548 1050 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 58 51 W 8 548 1050 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 56 48 W 10 548 1050 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 52 44 W 10 548 1050 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 49 41 W 10 548 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 48 40 N 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 47 39 N 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 47 39 N 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 46 38 E 6 548 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 45 37 E 6 548 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 45 37 E 6 548 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 44 36 E 7 548 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 43 35 E 7 548 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 43 35 E 7 548 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 43 35 E 7 548 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 42 34 E 7 548 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 42 34 E 7 548 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 43 35 E 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 44 36 E 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 50 43 E 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 55 48 NW 1 548 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 61 54 NW 1 548 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 64 58 NW 1 548 1050 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 64 57 W 7 548 1050 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 64 57 W 7 548 1050 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 62 54 W 7 548 1050 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 59 51 W 7 548 1050 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 54 46 W 7 548 1050 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 51 43 W 7 548 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 50 42 N 5 548 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 49 41 N 5 548 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 48 40 N 5 548 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 48 40 NE 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 47 39 NE 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 46 38 NE 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 45 37 E 5 548 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 44 36 E 5 548 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 44 36 E 5 548 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 44 36 E 5 548 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 44 36 E 5 548 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 43 35 E 5 548 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 44 36 NE 5 548 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 45 37 NE 5 548 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 51 43 NE 5 548 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 56 49 NW 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 63 57 NW 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 66 60 NW 3 587 1050 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 66 60 W 8 587 1050 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 66 59 W 8 563 1050 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 64 56 W 8 548 1050 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 61 53 W 8 548 1050 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 57 49 W 8 548 1050 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 53 45 W 8 548 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 53 45 NW 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 51 43 NW 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 51 43 NW 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 51 43 SE 1 548 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 50 42 SE 1 548 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 49 41 SE 1 548 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 48 40 SE 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 47 39 SE 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 47 39 SE 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst