Detailed Predictions for: Little Black
Launch Altitude (f): 1050
LZ Altitude (f): 750
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

25 NOV 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 48 40 E 5 568 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 47 39 E 3 568 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 47 39 E 3 568 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 48 40 E 3 568 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 52 44 SE 2 568 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 57 50 SE 1 568 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 62 56 W 3 568 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 64 59 W 6 568 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 64 59 W 7 568 1050 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 65 59 W 9 568 1050 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 64 57 W 8 568 1050 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 63 55 W 8 568 1050 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 61 53 W 7 568 1050 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 59 51 W 5 568 1050 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 56 48 W 3 568 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 54 46 W 1 568 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 53 45 SW 1 568 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 53 45 SE 2 568 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 52 44 E 2 568 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 52 44 E 2 568 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 51 43 E 2 568 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 51 43 E 2 568 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 51 43 E 2 568 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 50 42 SE 2 568 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 49 41 SE 2 568 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 48 40 E 2 568 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 47 39 E 2 568 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 47 39 E 2 568 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 49 41 NE 2 568 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 52 45 NW 2 568 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 56 50 W 3 568 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 60 54 W 6 568 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 63 58 W 8 568 1050 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 64 58 W 9 568 1050 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 65 58 W 8 568 1050 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 63 55 NW 6 568 1050 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 60 52 NW 5 568 1050 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 57 49 N 6 568 1050 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 54 46 NE 8 568 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 52 44 E 12 568 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 51 43 E 13 568 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 50 42 E 13 568 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 50 42 E 13 568 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 50 42 NE 12 568 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 51 43 NE 10 568 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 52 44 NE 10 568 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 51 43 NE 10 568 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 50 42 E 10 568 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 49 41 E 12 568 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 47 39 E 10 568 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 46 38 NE 10 568 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 47 39 NE 9 568 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 51 43 NE 8 568 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 58 51 NE 7 568 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 64 58 NE 6 568 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 68 63 NE 5 2151 1050 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Fri 71 66 N 3 3172 2133 1083 Blue 4
1 PM Fri 71 65 NW 3 2843 1185 135 Blue 3
2 PM Fri 71 64 NW 5 2505 1050 0 Blue 2
3 PM Fri 68 60 NW 6 568 1050 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 64 56 W 7 568 1050 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 60 52 NW 7 568 1050 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 54 46 N 6 568 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 50 42 NE 6 568 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 48 40 NE 5 568 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 46 38 E 5 568 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 46 38 E 5 568 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 46 38 E 5 568 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 47 39 E 5 568 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 48 40 E 5 568 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 49 41 E 5 568 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 49 41 E 5 568 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 49 41 SE 3 568 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 48 40 SE 3 568 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 47 39 SE 3 568 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 49 41 SE 7 568 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 54 46 SE 7 568 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 61 54 SE 7 568 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 68 62 W 5 1224 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 72 67 W 5 3279 2483 1433 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 75 70 W 5 3333 3278 2228 Blue 8
1 PM Sat 75 69 W 8 3315 3144 2094 Blue 7
2 PM Sat 76 69 W 8 3315 3144 2094 Blue 7
3 PM Sat 74 66 W 8 3172 2133 1083 Blue 4
4 PM Sat 71 63 NW 8 2151 1050 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sat 66 58 NW 8 568 1050 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 60 52 NW 8 568 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 56 48 E 5 568 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 54 46 E 5 568 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 53 45 E 5 568 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 53 45 SE 6 568 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 50 42 SE 6 568 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 48 40 SE 6 568 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 46 38 SE 3 568 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 46 38 SE 3 568 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 48 40 SE 3 568 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 48 40 E 1 568 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 48 40 E 1 568 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 48 40 E 1 568 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 50 42 SE 3 568 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 55 47 SE 3 568 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 62 55 SE 3 568 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 70 64 SW 3 2505 1050 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 75 69 SW 3 3315 3144 2094 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 78 72 SW 3 3386 3313 2263 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 77 71 W 7 3351 3296 2246 Blue 8
2 PM Sun 76 69 W 7 3315 3144 2094 Blue 7
3 PM Sun 72 64 W 7 2505 1050 0 Blue 2
4 PM Sun 68 60 W 6 568 1050 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 63 55 W 6 568 1050 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 58 50 W 6 568 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 55 47 NE 2 568 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 52 44 NE 2 568 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 51 43 NE 2 568 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 50 42 NW 2 568 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 48 40 NW 2 568 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 47 39 NW 2 568 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 46 38 S 2 568 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 46 38 S 2 568 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 47 39 S 2 568 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 48 40 SE 1 568 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 49 41 SE 1 568 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 49 41 SE 1 568 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 52 44 SE 3 568 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 58 50 SE 3 568 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 66 58 SE 3 568 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 72 65 SW 5 2843 1185 135 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 76 69 SW 5 3315 3144 2094 Blue 7
12 Noon Mon 77 70 SW 5 3333 3278 2228 Blue 8
1 PM Mon 78 71 W 8 3351 3296 2246 Blue 8
2 PM Mon 76 69 W 8 3315 3144 2094 Blue 7
3 PM Mon 73 65 W 8 2843 1185 135 Blue 3
4 PM Mon 69 61 W 6 568 1050 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 64 56 W 6 568 1050 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 58 50 W 6 568 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 54 46 W 2 568 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 52 44 W 2 568 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 52 44 W 2 568 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 51 43 E 3 568 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 50 42 E 3 568 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 48 40 E 3 568 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 47 39 S 3 568 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 47 39 S 3 568 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 48 40 S 3 568 1050 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst