Detailed Predictions for: Little Black
Launch Altitude (f): 1050
LZ Altitude (f): 750
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue -999 -1007 - 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue -999 -1007 - 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 56 48 SE 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 58 50 S 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 62 55 W 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 68 63 W 2 577 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 73 70 W 7 1252 1050 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Tue 76 74 W 9 1387 1287 237 Blue 10
1 PM Tue 76 75 W 9 1433 1319 269 Blue 11
2 PM Tue 77 75 W 13 1433 1319 269 Blue 11
3 PM Tue 77 74 W 13 1387 1287 237 Blue 10
4 PM Tue 75 70 W 13 1252 1050 0 Blue 6
5 PM Tue 74 67 W 10 1047 1050 0 Blue 3
6 PM Tue 71 63 W 9 577 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 68 60 W 8 492 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 66 58 W 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 64 56 W 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 64 56 W 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 63 55 W 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 63 55 SE 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 62 54 E 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 62 54 E 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 61 53 E 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 61 53 E 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 61 53 NE 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 60 52 N 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 60 52 NE 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 61 53 NE 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 65 57 E 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 69 62 W 1 549 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 73 70 W 7 1252 1050 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Wed 75 73 W 8 1352 1251 201 Blue 9
1 PM Wed 75 73 W 9 1352 1251 201 Blue 9
2 PM Wed 76 74 W 12 1387 1287 237 Blue 10
3 PM Wed 76 72 W 12 1320 1204 154 Blue 8
4 PM Wed 74 69 W 12 1205 1050 0 Blue 5
5 PM Wed 73 66 W 10 919 1050 0 Blue 2
6 PM Wed 71 63 W 9 577 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 68 60 W 8 492 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 66 58 NW 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 65 57 NW 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 64 56 NW 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 64 56 S 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 64 56 SE 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 63 55 SE 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 63 55 E 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 62 54 SE 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 62 54 SE 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 62 54 E 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 61 53 E 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 61 53 E 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 62 54 SE 0 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 66 59 SW 2 464 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 71 66 W 3 919 1050 0 Blue 2
11 AM Thu 75 72 W 8 1320 1204 154 Blue 8
12 Noon Thu 77 75 W 9 1433 1319 269 Blue 11
1 PM Thu 77 75 W 10 1433 1319 269 Blue 11
2 PM Thu 78 76 W 12 1478 1351 301 Blue 12
3 PM Thu 78 74 W 12 1387 1287 237 Blue 10
4 PM Thu 76 71 W 10 1288 1157 107 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 75 68 W 9 1158 1050 0 Blue 4
6 PM Thu 73 65 W 8 774 1050 0 Blue 1
7 PM Thu 70 62 W 7 549 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 68 60 W 3 492 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 67 59 W 2 464 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 66 58 W 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 66 58 SW 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 66 58 SW 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 65 57 SW 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 65 57 SW 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 64 56 W 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 64 56 S 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 64 56 S 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 63 55 S 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 63 55 S 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 64 56 S 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 68 61 S 2 520 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 72 65 S 2 774 1050 0 Blue 1
11 AM Fri 75 72 W 9 1320 1204 154 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 77 75 W 9 1433 1319 269 Blue 11
1 PM Fri 78 76 W 9 1478 1351 301 Blue 12
2 PM Fri 78 76 W 13 1478 1351 301 Blue 12
3 PM Fri 78 74 W 13 1387 1287 237 Blue 10
4 PM Fri 76 71 W 13 1288 1157 107 Blue 7
5 PM Fri 75 68 W 9 1158 1050 0 Blue 4
6 PM Fri 73 65 W 9 774 1050 0 Blue 1
7 PM Fri 70 62 W 9 549 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 68 60 W 3 492 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 67 59 W 3 464 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 66 58 W 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 66 58 SW 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 66 58 SW 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 65 57 SW 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 65 57 NW 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 64 56 NW 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 64 56 NW 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 64 56 N 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 63 55 N 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 63 55 N 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 64 56 NW 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 68 61 NW 1 520 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 72 66 NW 1 919 1050 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 76 73 W 8 1352 1251 201 Blue 9
12 Noon Sat 78 76 W 8 1478 1351 301 Blue 12
1 PM Sat 79 77 W 8 1524 1386 336 Blue 13
2 PM Sat 79 77 W 13 1524 1386 336 Blue 13
3 PM Sat 79 75 W 13 1433 1319 269 Blue 11
4 PM Sat 77 72 W 13 1320 1204 154 Blue 8
5 PM Sat 76 69 W 9 1205 1050 0 Blue 5
6 PM Sat 74 66 W 9 919 1050 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sat 70 62 W 9 549 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 68 60 W 5 492 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 67 59 W 5 464 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 67 59 W 5 464 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 66 58 NW 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 66 58 NW 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 65 57 NW 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 65 57 NW 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 64 56 NW 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 64 56 NW 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 64 56 N 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 63 55 N 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 63 55 N 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 64 56 N 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 68 61 N 3 520 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 72 66 N 3 919 1050 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 76 73 W 9 1352 1251 201 Blue 9
12 Noon Sun 78 76 W 9 1478 1351 301 Blue 12
1 PM Sun 79 77 W 9 1524 1386 336 Blue 13
2 PM Sun 79 77 W 14 1524 1386 336 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 79 75 W 14 1433 1319 269 Blue 11
4 PM Sun 77 72 W 14 1320 1204 154 Blue 8
5 PM Sun 76 69 W 9 1205 1050 0 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 74 66 W 9 919 1050 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 70 62 W 9 549 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 68 60 W 3 492 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 67 59 W 3 464 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 67 59 W 3 464 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 66 58 N 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 66 58 N 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 65 57 N 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 65 57 N 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 64 56 N 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 64 56 N 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst