Detailed Predictions for: Little Black
Launch Altitude (f): 1050
LZ Altitude (f): 750
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

26 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 51 43 NE 2 548 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 50 42 NE 2 548 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 50 42 NE 2 548 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 52 44 N 2 548 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 56 49 NW 2 548 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 61 55 NW 3 801 1050 0 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 65 60 W 7 1384 1050 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 68 63 W 8 1669 1378 328 Blue 10
1 PM Tue 68 63 W 8 1669 1378 328 Blue 10
2 PM Tue 69 64 W 10 1718 1568 518 Blue 11
3 PM Tue 68 62 W 10 1619 1228 178 Blue 9
4 PM Tue 67 60 W 10 1384 1050 0 Blue 7
5 PM Tue 67 59 W 9 1230 1050 0 Blue 6
6 PM Tue 65 57 W 8 1015 1050 0 Blue 4
7 PM Tue 62 54 W 6 694 1050 0 Blue 1
8 PM Tue 60 52 W 3 555 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 59 51 NW 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 58 50 NW 2 548 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 58 50 NW 2 548 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 56 48 NW 2 548 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 55 47 W 2 548 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 54 46 W 2 548 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 53 45 NW 2 548 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 53 45 NW 1 548 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 53 45 NW 2 548 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 52 44 NW 1 548 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 52 44 N 1 548 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 54 46 N 1 548 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 57 49 N 2 548 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 61 54 NW 5 694 1050 0 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 64 58 W 7 1123 1050 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 66 61 W 8 1570 1121 71 Blue 8
1 PM Wed 66 61 W 9 1570 1121 71 Blue 8
2 PM Wed 67 62 W 10 1619 1228 178 Blue 9
3 PM Wed 66 60 W 12 1384 1050 0 Blue 7
4 PM Wed 66 59 W 12 1230 1050 0 Blue 6
5 PM Wed 65 57 W 10 1015 1050 0 Blue 4
6 PM Wed 64 56 W 8 908 1050 0 Blue 3
7 PM Wed 61 53 NW 7 608 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 59 51 NW 5 548 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 58 50 NW 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 57 49 NW 2 548 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 57 49 NW 2 548 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 55 47 W 2 548 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 54 46 W 2 548 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 54 46 W 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 53 45 W 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 52 44 W 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 53 45 NW 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 52 44 NW 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 52 44 NW 5 548 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 54 46 NW 6 548 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 56 48 NW 6 548 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 60 53 NW 7 608 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 62 58 W 9 1123 1050 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 64 61 W 10 1570 1121 71 Blue 8
1 PM Thu 64 62 W 12 1619 1228 178 Blue 9
2 PM Thu 65 62 W 13 1619 1228 178 Blue 9
3 PM Thu 64 60 W 14 1384 1050 0 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 63 57 W 13 1015 1050 0 Blue 4
5 PM Thu 63 56 W 12 908 1050 0 Blue 3
6 PM Thu 61 53 W 9 608 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 58 50 NW 7 548 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 56 48 NW 5 548 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 55 47 W 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 54 46 S 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 54 46 S 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 52 44 S 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 51 43 S 5 548 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 50 42 S 5 548 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 49 41 SE 6 548 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 49 41 SE 6 548 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 49 41 SE 6 548 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 48 40 SE 6 548 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 48 40 SE 6 548 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 50 42 E 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 55 48 E 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 60 55 E 3 801 1050 0 Blue 2
11 AM Fri 64 60 W 5 1384 1050 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Fri 67 64 W 5 1718 1568 518 Blue 11
1 PM Fri 68 66 W 5 2166 1667 617 Blue 13
2 PM Fri 68 65 W 12 1999 1617 567 Blue 12
3 PM Fri 67 63 W 12 1669 1378 328 Blue 10
4 PM Fri 66 60 W 12 1384 1050 0 Blue 7
5 PM Fri 66 59 W 10 1230 1050 0 Blue 6
6 PM Fri 64 56 W 10 908 1050 0 Blue 3
7 PM Fri 61 53 W 10 608 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 59 51 W 2 548 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 57 49 W 2 548 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 56 48 W 2 548 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 56 48 S 2 548 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 54 46 S 2 548 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 53 45 S 2 548 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 52 44 SE 5 548 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 51 43 SE 5 548 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 51 43 SE 5 548 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 51 43 SE 6 548 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 50 42 SE 6 548 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 50 42 SE 6 548 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 52 44 S 6 548 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 57 50 S 6 548 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 62 57 S 6 1015 1050 0 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 67 64 W 7 1718 1568 518 Blue 11
12 Noon Sat 70 68 W 7 2500 1991 941 Blue 15
1 PM Sat 71 69 W 7 2671 2157 1107 Blue 16
2 PM Sat 71 68 W 9 2500 1991 941 Blue 15
3 PM Sat 70 66 W 9 2166 1667 617 Blue 13
4 PM Sat 69 63 W 9 1669 1378 328 Blue 10
5 PM Sat 68 61 W 13 1570 1121 71 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 66 58 W 13 1123 1050 0 Blue 5
7 PM Sat 63 55 W 13 801 1050 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 61 53 NW 5 608 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 59 51 NW 5 548 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 58 50 NW 5 548 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 57 49 E 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 55 47 E 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 54 46 E 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 54 46 NE 7 548 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 52 44 NE 7 548 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 52 44 NE 7 548 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 52 44 NE 9 548 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 51 43 NE 9 548 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 51 43 NE 9 548 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 54 46 NE 12 548 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 60 54 NE 12 694 1050 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 66 61 NE 12 1570 1121 71 Blue 8
11 AM Sun 72 69 NW 8 2671 2157 1107 Blue 16
12 Noon Sun 75 73 NW 8 2991 2820 1770 Blue 20
1 PM Sun 77 75 NW 8 3084 2931 1881 Blue 22
2 PM Sun 77 75 W 12 3084 2931 1881 Blue 22
3 PM Sun 76 72 W 12 2935 2659 1609 Blue 19
4 PM Sun 74 69 W 12 2671 2157 1107 Blue 16
5 PM Sun 73 66 W 10 2166 1667 617 Blue 13
6 PM Sun 71 63 W 10 1669 1378 328 Blue 10
7 PM Sun 67 59 W 10 1230 1050 0 Blue 6
8 PM Sun 64 56 W 5 908 1050 0 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 62 54 W 5 694 1050 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 60 52 W 5 555 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 59 51 E 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 57 49 E 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 55 47 E 3 548 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 55 47 NE 7 548 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 52 44 NE 7 548 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 52 44 NE 7 548 1050 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst