Detailed Predictions for: Little Black
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.9879562095, -117.122319277, 1050
LZ Altitude (f): 750
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

27 FEB 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 56 48 SSW 1 2 1213 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 55 47 SSW 2 3 831 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 55 47 SSW 2 4 831 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 54 46 S 2 4 495 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 53 45 S 2 3 495 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 52 44 S 1 3 495 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 53 45 SSE 2 3 495 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 54 46 SE 2 3 495 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 55 48 ESE 2 3 1213 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 57 51 SSE 3 4 1285 1213 163 Blue 3
10 AM Sat 60 56 SW 4 4 1495 1303 253 Blue 8
11 AM Sat 62 59 W 5 5 2045 1492 442 Blue 11
12 Noon Sat 63 60 W 5 6 2227 1675 625 Blue 12
1 PM Sat 63 60 W 6 7 2227 1675 625 Blue 12
2 PM Sat 64 59 W 7 8 2045 1492 442 Blue 11
3 PM Sat 63 57 W 7 9 1678 1312 262 Blue 9
4 PM Sat 61 53 WSW 7 10 1303 1276 226 Blue 5
5 PM Sat 60 52 WSW 8 11 1294 1267 217 Blue 4
6 PM Sat 59 51 SW 5 8 1285 1213 163 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 58 50 SSW 3 4 1276 1050 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 57 49 SSE 0 1 1267 1050 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sat 56 48 SSE 1 3 1213 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 55 47 SE 2 5 831 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 55 47 SE 3 7 831 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 55 47 ESE 3 6 831 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 56 48 E 3 5 1213 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 56 48 ENE 2 5 1213 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 54 46 ENE 4 8 495 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 53 45 ENE 5 10 495 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 51 43 NE 6 13 495 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 51 43 NE 7 14 495 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 52 44 ENE 8 15 495 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 52 45 ENE 9 16 495 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 56 50 ENE 10 15 1276 1050 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sun 59 55 ENE 11 14 1322 1294 244 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 63 60 ENE 12 13 2227 1675 625 Blue 12
12 Noon Sun 64 61 ENE 12 13 2410 1857 807 Blue 13
1 PM Sun 66 63 E 12 14 2797 2221 1171 Blue 15
2 PM Sun 68 63 E 12 14 2797 2221 1171 Blue 15
3 PM Sun 66 60 E 10 11 2227 1675 625 Blue 12
4 PM Sun 65 57 ENE 7 9 1678 1312 262 Blue 9
5 PM Sun 64 56 ENE 5 6 1495 1303 253 Blue 8
6 PM Sun 62 54 ENE 6 9 1312 1285 235 Blue 6
7 PM Sun 59 51 ENE 6 12 1285 1213 163 Blue 3
8 PM Sun 56 48 ENE 7 14 1213 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 55 47 ENE 7 14 831 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 54 46 ENE 7 14 495 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 54 46 ENE 7 14 495 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 53 45 ENE 6 13 495 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 53 45 ENE 6 13 495 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 52 44 ENE 5 12 495 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 52 44 ENE 6 12 495 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 51 43 ENE 6 13 495 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 50 42 ENE 6 13 495 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 51 43 ENE 6 13 495 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 51 43 ENE 6 13 495 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 52 45 ENE 6 12 495 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 56 50 ENE 5 10 1276 1050 0 Blue 2
10 AM Mon 61 57 ENE 5 8 1678 1312 262 Blue 9
11 AM Mon 66 63 E 5 5 2797 2221 1171 Blue 15
12 Noon Mon 68 65 SE 4 5 3190 2591 1541 Blue 17
1 PM Mon 70 67 SSW 4 4 3581 2982 1932 Blue 19
2 PM Mon 72 67 W 3 4 3581 2982 1932 Blue 19
3 PM Mon 69 63 WNW 5 6 2797 2221 1171 Blue 15
4 PM Mon 67 59 WNW 7 8 2045 1492 442 Blue 11
5 PM Mon 65 57 NW 8 10 1678 1312 262 Blue 9
6 PM Mon 63 55 NW 6 8 1322 1294 244 Blue 7
7 PM Mon 61 53 NW 5 6 1303 1276 226 Blue 5
8 PM Mon 59 51 NW 3 4 1285 1213 163 Blue 3
9 PM Mon 56 48 NW 2 5 1213 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 54 46 NNW 2 5 495 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 52 44 NNW 2 5 495 1050 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst