Detailed Predictions for: Marshall
Launch Altitude (f): 4040
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

23 MAY 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 63 61 NE 7 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 63 61 N 7 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 66 64 NE 7 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 72 71 NE 5 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 77 78 N 2 3813 4040 0 Blue 3
10 AM Tue 80 83 NE 1 4476 4074 34 Blue 8
11 AM Tue 83 88 SW 5 8080 5016 976 Blue 13
12 Noon Tue 87 93 SW 6 12904 9494 5454 Blue 18
1 PM Tue 89 95 SW 6 13725 12647 8607 Blue 20
2 PM Tue 90 95 SW 9 13725 12647 8607 Blue 20
3 PM Tue 91 95 SW 10 13725 12647 8607 Blue 20
4 PM Tue 91 93 SW 10 12904 9494 5454 Blue 18
5 PM Tue 88 88 SW 10 8080 5016 976 Blue 13
6 PM Tue 85 83 SW 10 4476 4074 34 Blue 8
7 PM Tue 75 73 SW 9 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 70 68 S 2 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 66 64 SE 2 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 64 62 SE 3 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 63 61 SE 3 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 60 58 E 3 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 62 60 E 3 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 59 57 E 1 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 59 57 E 1 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 60 58 E 1 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 60 58 E 2 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 60 58 E 2 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 62 60 SE 1 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 67 66 S 3 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 71 72 S 3 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 74 77 S 3 3183 4040 0 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 76 80 S 7 4079 4040 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 79 84 S 7 4730 4206 166 Blue 9
1 PM Wed 80 86 S 8 5208 4470 430 Blue 11
2 PM Wed 82 87 SW 10 6775 4712 672 Blue 12
3 PM Wed 82 85 SW 10 5027 4338 298 Blue 10
4 PM Wed 82 84 SW 10 4730 4206 166 Blue 9
5 PM Wed 80 80 SW 10 4079 4040 0 Blue 5
6 PM Wed 76 74 SW 10 2809 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 67 65 SW 9 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 62 60 SW 3 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 58 56 SW 3 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 57 55 SW 2 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 56 54 SE 2 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 53 51 SE 2 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 54 52 SE 2 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 52 50 SE 2 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 52 50 SE 2 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 53 51 SE 2 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 53 51 SE 2 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 53 51 SE 2 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 54 52 SE 3 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 58 56 S 6 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 61 59 S 6 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 63 62 S 7 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 65 69 S 8 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 67 72 S 9 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 68 73 S 9 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 69 74 SW 12 2809 4040 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 69 72 SW 12 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 70 72 SW 13 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 68 67 SW 13 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 65 63 SW 13 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 59 57 SW 12 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 55 53 SW 7 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 52 50 S 7 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 51 49 S 7 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 51 49 S 6 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 49 47 S 6 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 50 48 S 6 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 48 46 S 6 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 46 S 7 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 49 47 S 7 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 49 47 SE 5 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 49 47 SE 5 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 50 48 SE 5 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 54 52 S 6 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 56 54 S 6 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 58 56 S 6 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 60 64 S 8 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 62 66 S 8 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 63 68 S 8 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 64 68 SW 12 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 65 68 SW 12 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 65 66 SW 12 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 63 63 SW 13 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 61 59 SW 13 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 56 54 SW 13 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 53 51 SW 7 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 51 49 SW 7 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 50 48 SW 7 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 49 47 S 2 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 48 46 S 2 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 48 46 S 2 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 47 45 S 1 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 47 45 S 1 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 48 46 S 1 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 48 46 SW 0 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 48 46 SW 0 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 50 48 SW 0 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 56 54 SW 3 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 60 58 SW 3 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 64 63 SW 3 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 66 71 SW 7 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 69 75 SW 7 2948 4040 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 71 77 SW 7 3183 4040 0 Blue 2
2 PM Sat 73 78 SW 9 3813 4040 0 Blue 3
3 PM Sat 74 78 SW 9 3813 4040 0 Blue 3
4 PM Sat 74 76 SW 9 3069 4040 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sat 72 72 SW 10 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 69 67 SW 10 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 63 61 SW 10 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 59 57 SW 5 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 56 54 SW 5 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 55 53 SW 5 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 55 53 SW 1 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 53 51 SW 1 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 54 52 SW 1 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 52 50 N 1 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 52 50 N 1 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 54 52 N 1 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 53 51 N 5 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 53 51 N 5 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 56 54 N 5 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 62 61 N 7 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 66 67 N 7 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 70 73 N 7 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 72 76 SW 5 3069 4040 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sun 76 81 SW 5 4211 4040 0 Blue 6
1 PM Sun 78 83 SW 5 4476 4074 34 Blue 8
2 PM Sun 80 85 SW 9 5027 4338 298 Blue 10
3 PM Sun 81 84 SW 9 4730 4206 166 Blue 9
4 PM Sun 80 82 SW 9 4344 4040 0 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 78 78 SW 12 3813 4040 0 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 76 74 SW 12 2809 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 69 67 SW 12 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 65 63 SW 2 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 62 60 SW 2 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 61 59 SW 2 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 60 58 E 1 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 58 56 E 1 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 59 57 E 1 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 57 55 N 6 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 57 55 N 6 2582 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 59 57 N 6 2582 4040 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst