Detailed Predictions for: Marshall
Launch Altitude (f): 4040
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue -999 -1001 - 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue -999 -1001 - 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 55 53 E 2 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 65 63 E 3 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 72 72 SE 3 2710 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 74 75 S 3 3525 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 76 79 S 7 4592 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 79 83 S 8 5618 4862 822 Blue 3
1 PM Tue 80 84 S 8 6007 5124 1084 Blue 4
2 PM Tue 82 86 S 9 7036 5599 1559 Blue 6
3 PM Tue 81 83 SW 10 5618 4862 822 Blue 3
4 PM Tue 82 83 SW 10 5618 4862 822 Blue 3
5 PM Tue 80 79 SW 10 4592 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 76 74 SW 10 3255 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 71 69 SW 7 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 66 64 SE 3 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 62 60 SE 3 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 60 58 SE 3 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 58 56 E 3 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 58 56 E 3 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 57 55 E 3 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 56 54 E 3 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 56 54 E 3 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 56 54 E 3 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 56 54 NE 2 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 55 53 N 2 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 55 53 N 2 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 65 63 N 1 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 72 72 SW 0 2710 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 74 75 S 1 3525 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 76 79 SW 6 4592 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 79 83 S 6 5618 4862 822 Blue 3
1 PM Wed 80 84 S 7 6007 5124 1084 Blue 4
2 PM Wed 82 86 SW 8 7036 5599 1559 Blue 6
3 PM Wed 81 83 SW 9 5618 4862 822 Blue 3
4 PM Wed 82 83 SW 9 5618 4862 822 Blue 3
5 PM Wed 80 79 SW 9 4592 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 77 75 SW 8 3525 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 72 70 SW 5 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 68 66 SE 2 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 65 63 E 2 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 64 62 E 2 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 62 60 N 5 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 62 60 N 5 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 61 59 NE 8 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 60 58 NE 8 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 60 58 NE 9 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 60 58 NE 10 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 60 58 NE 12 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 59 57 N 12 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 59 57 N 13 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 69 67 N 13 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 76 76 N 10 3794 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 78 79 N 6 4592 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 80 82 S 3 5380 4579 539 Blue 2
12 Noon Thu 83 86 S 5 7036 5599 1559 Blue 6
1 PM Thu 84 88 S 7 7401 6472 2432 Blue 8
2 PM Thu 86 89 S 8 7577 6973 2933 Blue 9
3 PM Thu 85 87 S 8 7224 5957 1917 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 86 86 SW 12 7036 5599 1559 Blue 6
5 PM Thu 84 83 SW 14 5618 4862 822 Blue 3
6 PM Thu 80 78 SW 14 4327 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 75 73 SW 7 2983 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 71 69 SE 6 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 67 65 E 3 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 65 63 E 3 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 63 61 E 2 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 63 61 E 2 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 62 60 NE 1 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 61 59 N 1 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 61 59 N 3 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 61 59 E 3 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 61 59 N 2 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 60 58 N 2 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 60 58 N 2 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 69 67 S 1 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 75 74 S 1 3255 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 76 77 S 1 4061 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 79 82 S 7 5380 4579 539 Blue 2
12 Noon Fri 81 85 S 7 6528 5362 1322 Blue 5
1 PM Fri 82 86 S 7 7036 5599 1559 Blue 6
2 PM Fri 84 87 SW 12 7224 5957 1917 Blue 7
3 PM Fri 84 86 SW 12 7036 5599 1559 Blue 6
4 PM Fri 84 84 SW 12 6007 5124 1084 Blue 4
5 PM Fri 82 81 SW 13 5140 4316 276 Blue 1
6 PM Fri 78 76 SW 13 3794 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 74 72 SW 13 2710 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 69 67 S 2 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 66 64 S 2 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 64 62 S 2 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 62 60 SE 1 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 62 60 SE 1 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 61 59 SE 1 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 60 58 NE 1 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 60 58 NE 1 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 60 58 NE 1 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 60 58 NE 6 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 59 57 NE 6 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 59 57 NE 6 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 68 66 E 3 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 75 74 E 3 3255 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 77 78 E 3 4327 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 79 82 S 7 5380 4579 539 Blue 2
12 Noon Sat 82 86 S 7 7036 5599 1559 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 83 87 S 7 7224 5957 1917 Blue 7
2 PM Sat 85 88 SW 12 7401 6472 2432 Blue 8
3 PM Sat 85 87 SW 12 7224 5957 1917 Blue 7
4 PM Sat 85 85 SW 12 6528 5362 1322 Blue 5
5 PM Sat 83 82 SW 13 5380 4579 539 Blue 2
6 PM Sat 79 77 SW 13 4061 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 74 72 SW 13 2710 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 70 68 S 3 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 66 64 S 3 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 64 62 S 3 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 62 60 E 1 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 62 60 E 1 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 61 59 E 1 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 60 58 NE 7 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 60 58 NE 7 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 60 58 NE 7 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 60 58 NE 6 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 59 57 NE 6 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 59 57 NE 6 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 68 66 NE 5 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 75 74 NE 5 3255 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 77 78 NE 5 4327 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 79 82 SW 7 5380 4579 539 Blue 2
12 Noon Sun 82 86 SW 7 7036 5599 1559 Blue 6
1 PM Sun 83 87 SW 7 7224 5957 1917 Blue 7
2 PM Sun 85 89 SW 13 7577 6973 2933 Blue 9
3 PM Sun 85 87 SW 13 7224 5957 1917 Blue 7
4 PM Sun 85 86 SW 13 7036 5599 1559 Blue 6
5 PM Sun 83 82 SW 13 5380 4579 539 Blue 2
6 PM Sun 79 77 SW 13 4061 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 74 72 SW 13 2710 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 69 67 SE 5 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 66 64 SE 5 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 63 61 SE 5 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 62 60 E 3 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 61 59 E 3 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 60 58 E 3 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 59 57 NE 2 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 59 57 NE 2 2530 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 59 57 NE 2 2530 4040 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst