Detailed Predictions for: Marshall
Launch Altitude (f): 4040
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

17 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 59 57 E 5 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 59 57 E 5 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 60 58 E 5 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 61 59 E 5 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 63 62 SE 5 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 65 65 SE 6 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 68 69 S 7 3342 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 70 72 S 8 4692 4040 0 Blue 3
1 PM Thu 71 73 S 8 5227 4040 0 Blue 4
2 PM Thu 71 73 S 9 5227 4040 0 Blue 4
3 PM Thu 71 72 SW 9 4692 4040 0 Blue 3
4 PM Thu 71 70 SW 9 3801 4040 0 Blue 1
5 PM Thu 69 67 SW 9 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 65 63 SW 8 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 62 60 S 6 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 58 56 S 3 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 56 54 SE 3 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 55 53 SE 2 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 54 52 E 2 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 54 52 E 3 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 55 53 NE 5 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 55 53 N 9 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 56 54 N 13 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 56 54 N 16 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 56 54 N 20 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 55 53 N 22 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 54 52 N 23 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 55 53 N 24 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 57 56 N 24 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 60 60 N 23 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 64 65 N 21 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 68 70 N 18 3801 4040 0 Blue 1
1 PM Fri 71 73 N 15 5227 4040 0 Blue 4
2 PM Fri 73 74 N 13 5819 4233 193 Blue 5
3 PM Fri 74 74 N 10 5819 4233 193 Blue 5
4 PM Fri 73 72 N 8 4692 4040 0 Blue 3
5 PM Fri 73 71 N 6 4251 4040 0 Blue 2
6 PM Fri 70 68 N 5 2689 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 67 65 NE 5 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 64 62 NE 5 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 62 60 NE 6 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 62 60 NE 7 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 61 59 NE 7 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 61 59 NE 7 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 60 58 NE 6 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 59 57 NE 5 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 59 57 NE 5 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 58 56 NE 6 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 57 55 NE 7 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 57 55 NE 8 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 57 55 N 10 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 59 57 N 12 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 62 61 N 10 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 66 66 N 8 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 70 71 N 6 4251 4040 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sat 72 74 NW 6 5819 4233 193 Blue 5
1 PM Sat 73 75 W 7 6375 4669 629 Blue 6
2 PM Sat 74 76 SW 8 6556 5185 1145 Blue 7
3 PM Sat 73 74 SW 9 5819 4233 193 Blue 5
4 PM Sat 73 72 SW 9 4692 4040 0 Blue 3
5 PM Sat 71 69 SW 9 3342 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 68 66 S 7 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 64 62 SE 5 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 60 58 E 3 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 58 56 E 3 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 57 55 NE 5 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 57 55 N 7 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 58 56 N 8 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 60 58 N 10 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 60 58 N 13 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 60 58 N 15 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 60 58 N 18 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 59 57 N 20 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 60 58 N 20 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 61 59 N 20 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 63 61 N 22 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 64 63 N 22 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 66 66 N 22 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 68 69 N 17 3342 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 71 73 N 17 5227 4040 0 Blue 4
1 PM Sun 74 76 N 17 6556 5185 1145 Blue 7
2 PM Sun 76 78 N 15 7323 6330 2290 Blue 9
3 PM Sun 78 79 N 15 7981 6536 2496 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 77 76 N 15 6556 5185 1145 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 76 74 N 12 5819 4233 193 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 74 72 N 12 4692 4040 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sun 70 68 N 12 2689 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 67 65 NE 13 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 66 64 NE 13 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 66 64 NE 13 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 66 64 NE 13 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 66 64 NE 13 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 66 64 NE 13 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 65 63 N 18 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 64 62 N 18 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 64 62 N 18 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 62 60 N 21 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 61 59 N 21 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 60 58 N 21 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 60 58 N 21 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 63 62 N 21 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 67 67 N 21 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 71 72 N 17 4692 4040 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Mon 75 77 N 17 6789 5767 1727 Blue 8
1 PM Mon 78 80 N 17 8097 6755 2715 Blue 11
2 PM Mon 80 82 N 15 8414 7963 3923 Blue 13
3 PM Mon 80 81 N 15 8238 7173 3133 Blue 12
4 PM Mon 81 80 N 15 8097 6755 2715 Blue 11
5 PM Mon 79 77 NE 10 6789 5767 1727 Blue 8
6 PM Mon 76 74 NE 10 5819 4233 193 Blue 5
7 PM Mon 73 71 NE 10 4251 4040 0 Blue 2
8 PM Mon 69 67 N 12 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 67 65 N 12 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 66 64 N 12 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 65 63 N 12 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 65 63 N 12 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 64 62 N 12 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 64 62 N 14 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 64 62 N 14 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 64 62 N 14 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 63 61 N 16 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 62 60 N 16 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 62 60 N 16 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 63 61 N 15 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 66 65 N 15 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 71 71 N 15 4251 4040 0 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 75 76 N 10 6556 5185 1145 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 79 81 N 10 8238 7173 3133 Blue 12
1 PM Tue 81 83 N 10 8589 8078 4038 Blue 14
2 PM Tue 83 85 N 5 8940 8383 4343 Blue 16
3 PM Tue 85 86 N 5 9077 8558 4518 Blue 17
4 PM Tue 84 83 N 5 8589 8078 4038 Blue 14
5 PM Tue 84 82 NW 3 8414 7963 3923 Blue 13
6 PM Tue 80 78 NW 3 7323 6330 2290 Blue 9
7 PM Tue 75 73 NW 3 5227 4040 0 Blue 4
8 PM Tue 70 68 NE 6 2689 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 66 64 NE 6 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 64 62 NE 6 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 63 61 N 6 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 64 62 N 6 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 66 64 N 6 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 67 65 NE 10 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 67 65 NE 10 2451 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 66 64 NE 10 2451 4040 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst