Detailed Predictions for: Marshall
Launch Altitude (f): 4040
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

16 DEC 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sat 56 54 E 7 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 55 53 E 7 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 54 52 E 6 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 53 51 E 6 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 53 51 E 8 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 54 52 SE 7 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 56 55 SE 6 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 57 57 SE 2 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 59 59 N 5 2744 4040 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 60 59 N 13 2744 4040 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 59 58 N 13 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 60 58 N 14 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 59 57 N 21 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 58 56 N 21 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 56 54 N 23 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 54 52 N 29 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 53 51 N 29 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 52 50 N 30 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 52 50 N 32 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 51 49 N 32 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 50 48 N 33 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 50 48 N 33 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 49 47 N 33 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 49 47 N 33 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 49 47 N 33 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 48 46 N 33 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 48 46 N 32 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 48 46 N 31 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 49 47 N 31 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 50 49 N 31 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 51 50 N 30 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 52 52 N 30 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 53 53 N 29 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 54 54 N 26 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 53 52 N 26 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 54 52 N 26 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 53 51 N 24 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 52 50 N 23 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 51 49 N 21 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 50 48 N 20 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 50 48 N 20 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 50 48 N 20 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 50 48 N 20 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 50 48 N 21 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 49 47 N 21 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 49 47 N 21 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 50 48 N 20 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 50 48 N 21 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 49 47 N 22 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 49 47 N 21 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 48 46 N 21 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 48 46 N 21 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 50 48 N 20 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 52 50 N 20 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 55 54 N 17 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 58 58 N 17 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 60 60 N 15 3042 4040 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 61 60 N 14 3042 4040 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 61 60 N 14 3042 4040 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 62 60 N 14 3042 4040 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 61 59 N 14 2744 4040 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 59 57 N 15 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 56 54 N 15 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 54 52 N 15 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 53 51 N 15 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 53 51 N 17 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 53 51 N 18 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 53 51 N 18 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 54 52 N 18 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 54 52 N 17 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 54 52 N 17 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 54 52 N 17 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 54 52 N 16 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 53 51 N 16 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 53 51 N 16 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 54 52 N 15 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 56 54 N 15 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 58 57 N 15 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 61 60 N 13 3042 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 63 63 N 13 4622 4040 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Tue 64 64 N 13 5113 4040 0 Blue 2
1 PM Tue 65 65 N 8 5506 4040 0 Blue 3
2 PM Tue 66 65 N 8 5506 4040 0 Blue 3
3 PM Tue 66 64 N 8 5113 4040 0 Blue 2
4 PM Tue 65 63 N 7 4622 4040 0 Blue 1
5 PM Tue 63 61 N 7 3338 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 60 58 N 7 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 58 56 NE 9 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 55 53 NE 9 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 54 52 NE 9 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 53 51 NE 7 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 52 50 NE 7 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 53 51 NE 7 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 53 51 NE 5 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 54 52 NE 5 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 54 52 NE 5 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 53 51 NE 3 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 51 49 NE 3 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 50 48 NE 3 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 50 48 E 2 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 52 50 E 2 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 55 53 E 2 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 57 56 S 5 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 59 59 S 5 2744 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 59 59 S 5 2744 4040 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 59 58 S 7 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 59 58 S 7 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 59 57 S 7 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 58 56 SW 8 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 56 54 SW 8 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 53 51 SW 8 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 51 49 SE 2 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 50 48 SE 2 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 49 47 SE 2 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 49 47 SE 1 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 49 47 SE 1 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 49 47 SE 1 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 49 47 E 9 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 49 47 E 9 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 48 46 E 9 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 48 46 N 16 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 47 45 N 16 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 46 44 N 16 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 46 44 N 18 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 46 44 N 18 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 47 45 N 18 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 48 47 N 20 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 50 50 N 20 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 51 51 N 20 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 52 52 N 21 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 52 51 N 21 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 52 50 N 21 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 51 49 N 23 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 50 48 N 23 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 48 46 N 23 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 47 45 N 24 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 46 44 N 24 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 46 44 N 24 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 45 43 N 25 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 44 42 N 25 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 43 41 N 25 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 42 40 N 24 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 42 40 N 24 2480 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 42 40 N 24 2480 4040 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst