Detailed Predictions for: Marshall
Launch Altitude (f): 4040
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

15 JUN 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 57 55 SW 0 3417 4040 0 Blue 3
6 AM Sat 57 55 S 1 3417 4040 0 Blue 3
7 AM Sat 58 56 S 1 3439 4040 0 Blue 4
8 AM Sat 61 60 S 2 3524 4040 0 Blue 8
9 AM Sat 65 65 S 3 3701 4040 0 Blue 13
10 AM Sat 68 69 S 3 3896 4040 0 Blue 17
11 AM Sat 71 75 S 6 4280 4073 33 Blue 23
12 Noon Sat 74 79 S 6 4605 4345 305 Blue 27
1 PM Sat 77 82 S 6 5155 4597 557 Blue 30
2 PM Sat 79 84 S 8 5639 4922 882 Blue 32
3 PM Sat 79 83 SW 8 5391 4755 715 Blue 31
4 PM Sat 80 82 SW 8 5155 4597 557 Blue 30
5 PM Sat 79 79 SW 9 4605 4345 305 Blue 27
6 PM Sat 78 77 SW 9 4417 4209 169 Blue 25
7 PM Sat 72 70 SW 8 3951 4040 0 Blue 18
8 PM Sat 68 66 S 3 3737 4040 0 Blue 14
9 PM Sat 65 63 S 2 3629 4040 0 Blue 11
10 PM Sat 63 61 S 2 3557 4040 0 Blue 9
11 PM Sat 62 60 E 1 3524 4040 0 Blue 8
12 Midnight Sun 61 59 SE 1 3503 4040 0 Blue 7
1 AM Sun 61 59 SE 1 3503 4040 0 Blue 7
2 AM Sun 60 58 SE 1 3482 4040 0 Blue 6
3 AM Sun 60 58 SE 1 3482 4040 0 Blue 6
4 AM Sun 60 58 SE 1 3482 4040 0 Blue 6
5 AM Sun 59 57 E 2 3460 4040 0 Blue 5
6 AM Sun 59 57 E 1 3460 4040 0 Blue 5
7 AM Sun 60 58 SE 2 3482 4040 0 Blue 6
8 AM Sun 63 62 S 2 3593 4040 0 Blue 10
9 AM Sun 66 67 S 3 3788 4040 0 Blue 15
10 AM Sun 70 72 S 5 4075 4040 0 Blue 20
11 AM Sun 73 76 S 7 4348 4141 101 Blue 24
12 Noon Sun 76 80 S 7 4764 4413 373 Blue 28
1 PM Sun 78 82 S 8 5155 4597 557 Blue 30
2 PM Sun 80 84 SW 10 5639 4922 882 Blue 32
3 PM Sun 80 83 SW 10 5391 4755 715 Blue 31
4 PM Sun 81 82 SW 10 5155 4597 557 Blue 30
5 PM Sun 80 80 SW 12 4764 4413 373 Blue 28
6 PM Sun 78 77 SW 10 4417 4209 169 Blue 25
7 PM Sun 72 70 SW 9 3951 4040 0 Blue 18
8 PM Sun 67 65 S 5 3701 4040 0 Blue 13
9 PM Sun 64 62 S 2 3593 4040 0 Blue 10
10 PM Sun 61 59 S 2 3503 4040 0 Blue 7
11 PM Sun 61 59 SE 1 3503 4040 0 Blue 7
12 Midnight Mon 59 57 SE 1 3460 4040 0 Blue 5
1 AM Mon 59 57 S 1 3460 4040 0 Blue 5
2 AM Mon 59 57 S 1 3460 4040 0 Blue 5
3 AM Mon 59 57 S 1 3460 4040 0 Blue 5
4 AM Mon 58 56 S 1 3439 4040 0 Blue 4
5 AM Mon 57 55 SE 1 3417 4040 0 Blue 3
6 AM Mon 57 55 N 0 3417 4040 0 Blue 3
7 AM Mon 58 56 W 1 3439 4040 0 Blue 4
8 AM Mon 61 60 S 2 3524 4040 0 Blue 8
9 AM Mon 64 64 S 3 3665 4040 0 Blue 12
10 AM Mon 68 69 S 5 3896 4040 0 Blue 17
11 AM Mon 71 75 SW 7 4280 4073 33 Blue 23
12 Noon Mon 74 79 SW 7 4605 4345 305 Blue 27
1 PM Mon 76 82 SW 8 5155 4597 557 Blue 30
2 PM Mon 78 83 SW 10 5391 4755 715 Blue 31
3 PM Mon 78 82 SW 12 5155 4597 557 Blue 30
4 PM Mon 79 81 SW 12 4935 4482 442 Blue 29
5 PM Mon 78 78 SW 13 4485 4277 237 Blue 26
6 PM Mon 77 76 SW 12 4348 4141 101 Blue 24
7 PM Mon 72 70 SW 9 3951 4040 0 Blue 18
8 PM Mon 67 65 S 5 3701 4040 0 Blue 13
9 PM Mon 64 62 S 2 3593 4040 0 Blue 10
10 PM Mon 62 60 S 1 3524 4040 0 Blue 8
11 PM Mon 62 60 SE 1 3524 4040 0 Blue 8
12 Midnight Tue 61 59 S 0 3503 4040 0 Blue 7
1 AM Tue 61 59 S 1 3503 4040 0 Blue 7
2 AM Tue 60 58 S 1 3482 4040 0 Blue 6
3 AM Tue 60 58 SE 1 3482 4040 0 Blue 6
4 AM Tue 60 58 E 1 3482 4040 0 Blue 6
5 AM Tue 59 57 N 2 3460 4040 0 Blue 5
6 AM Tue 59 57 N 2 3460 4040 0 Blue 5
7 AM Tue 60 58 N 2 3482 4040 0 Blue 6
8 AM Tue 63 62 SW 2 3593 4040 0 Blue 10
9 AM Tue 67 68 SW 2 3842 4040 0 Blue 16
10 AM Tue 71 74 SW 2 4212 4040 0 Blue 22
11 AM Tue 74 79 SW 5 4605 4345 305 Blue 27
12 Noon Tue 77 83 SW 5 5391 4755 715 Blue 31
1 PM Tue 80 86 SW 5 5916 5372 1332 Blue 34
2 PM Tue 82 87 SW 8 6030 5618 1578 Blue 35
3 PM Tue 83 87 SW 8 6030 5618 1578 Blue 35
4 PM Tue 83 85 SW 8 5803 5140 1100 Blue 33
5 PM Tue 82 82 SW 8 5155 4597 557 Blue 30
6 PM Tue 80 79 SW 8 4605 4345 305 Blue 27
7 PM Tue 75 73 SW 8 4144 4040 0 Blue 21
8 PM Tue 70 68 SW 3 3842 4040 0 Blue 16
9 PM Tue 67 65 SW 3 3701 4040 0 Blue 13
10 PM Tue 65 63 SW 3 3629 4040 0 Blue 11
11 PM Tue 64 62 SW 1 3593 4040 0 Blue 10
12 Midnight Wed 63 61 SW 1 3557 4040 0 Blue 9
1 AM Wed 63 61 SW 1 3557 4040 0 Blue 9
2 AM Wed 63 61 S 1 3557 4040 0 Blue 9
3 AM Wed 63 61 S 1 3557 4040 0 Blue 9
4 AM Wed 62 60 S 1 3524 4040 0 Blue 8
5 AM Wed 61 59 W 1 3503 4040 0 Blue 7
6 AM Wed 61 59 W 1 3503 4040 0 Blue 7
7 AM Wed 62 60 W 1 3524 4040 0 Blue 8
8 AM Wed 65 64 SW 3 3665 4040 0 Blue 12
9 AM Wed 68 69 SW 3 3896 4040 0 Blue 17
10 AM Wed 72 75 SW 3 4280 4073 33 Blue 23
11 AM Wed 75 80 SW 6 4764 4413 373 Blue 28
12 Noon Wed 78 84 SW 6 5639 4922 882 Blue 32
1 PM Wed 80 86 SW 6 5916 5372 1332 Blue 34
2 PM Wed 82 87 SW 8 6030 5618 1578 Blue 35
3 PM Wed 83 87 SW 8 6030 5618 1578 Blue 35
4 PM Wed 83 85 SW 8 5803 5140 1100 Blue 33
5 PM Wed 82 82 SW 9 5155 4597 557 Blue 30
6 PM Wed 80 79 SW 9 4605 4345 305 Blue 27
7 PM Wed 75 73 SW 9 4144 4040 0 Blue 21
8 PM Wed 70 68 SW 3 3842 4040 0 Blue 16
9 PM Wed 67 65 SW 3 3701 4040 0 Blue 13
10 PM Wed 65 63 SW 3 3629 4040 0 Blue 11
11 PM Wed 64 62 S 2 3593 4040 0 Blue 10
12 Midnight Thu 63 61 S 2 3557 4040 0 Blue 9
1 AM Thu 63 61 S 2 3557 4040 0 Blue 9
2 AM Thu 63 61 S 2 3557 4040 0 Blue 9
3 AM Thu 63 61 S 2 3557 4040 0 Blue 9
4 AM Thu 62 60 S 2 3524 4040 0 Blue 8
5 AM Thu 61 59 S 2 3503 4040 0 Blue 7
6 AM Thu 61 59 S 2 3503 4040 0 Blue 7
7 AM Thu 62 60 S 2 3524 4040 0 Blue 8
8 AM Thu 64 63 S 5 3629 4040 0 Blue 11
9 AM Thu 67 68 S 5 3842 4040 0 Blue 16
10 AM Thu 70 73 S 5 4144 4040 0 Blue 21
11 AM Thu 72 77 S 7 4417 4209 169 Blue 25
12 Noon Thu 75 81 S 7 4935 4482 442 Blue 29
1 PM Thu 77 83 S 7 5391 4755 715 Blue 31
2 PM Thu 78 84 SW 9 5639 4922 882 Blue 32
3 PM Thu 79 83 SW 9 5391 4755 715 Blue 31
4 PM Thu 79 81 SW 9 4935 4482 442 Blue 29
5 PM Thu 78 78 SW 10 4485 4277 237 Blue 26
6 PM Thu 77 76 SW 10 4348 4141 101 Blue 24
7 PM Thu 72 70 SW 10 3951 4040 0 Blue 18
8 PM Thu 67 65 SW 6 3701 4040 0 Blue 13
9 PM Thu 64 62 SW 6 3593 4040 0 Blue 10
10 PM Thu 62 60 SW 6 3524 4040 0 Blue 8
11 PM Thu 62 60 SW 3 3524 4040 0 Blue 8
12 Midnight Fri 61 59 SW 3 3503 4040 0 Blue 7
1 AM Fri 61 59 SW 3 3503 4040 0 Blue 7
2 AM Fri 60 58 S 3 3482 4040 0 Blue 6
3 AM Fri 60 58 S 3 3482 4040 0 Blue 6
4 AM Fri 60 58 S 3 3482 4040 0 Blue 6

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst