Detailed Predictions for: Marshall
Launch Altitude (f): 4040
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

19 OCT 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 58 56 E 1 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 59 57 E 1 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 58 56 E 1 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 61 59 E 1 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 66 65 E 1 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 69 69 SE 2 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 70 71 S 5 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 72 74 S 5 2830 4040 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 73 75 S 5 2965 4040 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 74 75 S 6 2965 4040 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 73 73 SW 6 2694 4040 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 73 72 SW 6 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 70 68 SW 6 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 64 62 SW 6 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 61 59 SW 5 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 58 56 S 3 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 57 55 S 3 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 56 54 S 3 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 55 53 SE 5 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 56 54 SE 5 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 56 54 SE 6 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 54 52 SE 8 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 55 53 SE 9 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 54 52 SE 8 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 53 51 S 7 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 54 52 S 8 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 53 51 S 8 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 55 53 S 7 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 58 56 S 7 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 60 58 S 6 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 60 59 SE 6 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 62 62 SE 6 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 62 62 SE 6 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 63 63 SE 2 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 62 61 S 2 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 63 61 S 2 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 61 59 SW 3 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 58 56 SW 2 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 57 55 SW 2 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 56 54 S 1 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 55 53 SE 1 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 54 52 SE 1 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 54 52 N 6 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 54 52 N 8 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 54 52 N 10 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 54 52 N 20 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 54 52 N 20 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 54 52 N 20 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 53 51 N 25 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 53 51 N 24 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 53 51 N 24 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 56 54 N 30 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 62 61 N 30 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 65 65 N 30 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 66 67 N 29 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 69 71 N 28 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 70 72 N 26 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 71 72 N 23 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 70 70 N 22 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 70 69 N 21 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 68 66 N 21 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 64 62 N 20 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 62 60 N 20 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 61 59 N 21 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 60 58 N 21 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 59 57 N 21 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 58 56 N 25 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 59 57 N 25 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 59 57 N 25 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 58 56 N 24 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 58 56 N 24 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 58 56 N 24 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 57 55 N 24 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 58 56 N 24 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 57 55 N 24 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 62 60 N 23 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 72 71 N 23 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 76 76 N 23 3178 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 79 81 N 20 6765 4419 379 Blue 5
12 Noon Sun 82 84 N 20 8868 6679 2639 Blue 8
1 PM Sun 85 88 N 20 9639 9085 5045 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 86 88 N 17 9639 9085 5045 Blue 12
3 PM Sun 86 87 N 17 9467 8746 4706 Blue 11
4 PM Sun 85 84 N 17 8868 6679 2639 Blue 8
5 PM Sun 81 79 N 13 5026 4040 0 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 74 72 N 13 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 71 69 N 13 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 68 66 NE 15 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 66 64 NE 15 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 64 62 NE 15 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 64 62 N 17 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 64 62 N 17 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 65 63 N 17 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 63 61 N 22 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 63 61 N 22 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 63 61 N 22 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 61 59 N 23 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 62 60 N 23 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 61 59 N 23 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 66 64 N 24 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 76 75 N 24 2965 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 80 80 N 24 6008 4040 0 Blue 4
11 AM Mon 82 84 N 22 8868 6679 2639 Blue 8
12 Noon Mon 85 87 N 22 9467 8746 4706 Blue 11
1 PM Mon 88 91 N 22 11028 9602 5562 Blue 15
2 PM Mon 89 91 NE 20 11028 9602 5562 Blue 15
3 PM Mon 89 90 NE 20 10246 9430 5390 Blue 14
4 PM Mon 88 87 NE 20 9467 8746 4706 Blue 11
5 PM Mon 83 81 NE 16 6765 4419 379 Blue 5
6 PM Mon 75 73 NE 16 2694 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 71 69 NE 16 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 67 65 NE 22 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 64 62 NE 22 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 63 61 NE 22 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 62 60 NE 24 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 63 61 NE 24 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 64 62 NE 24 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 61 59 N 26 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 62 60 N 26 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 61 59 N 26 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 59 57 N 26 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 60 58 N 26 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 59 57 N 26 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 64 62 N 29 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 75 74 N 29 2830 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 80 80 N 29 6008 4040 0 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 82 84 N 25 8868 6679 2639 Blue 8
12 Noon Tue 86 88 N 25 9639 9085 5045 Blue 12
1 PM Tue 88 91 N 25 11028 9602 5562 Blue 15
2 PM Tue 90 92 N 23 11324 9774 5734 Blue 16
3 PM Tue 90 91 N 23 11028 9602 5562 Blue 15
4 PM Tue 89 88 N 23 9639 9085 5045 Blue 12
5 PM Tue 85 83 NE 20 8192 5929 1889 Blue 7
6 PM Tue 77 75 NE 20 2965 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 73 71 NE 20 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 69 67 NE 21 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 67 65 NE 21 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 66 64 NE 21 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 65 63 N 21 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 66 64 N 21 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 66 64 N 21 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 64 62 N 24 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 65 63 N 24 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 64 62 N 24 2677 4040 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst