Detailed Predictions for: Marshall
Launch Altitude (f): 4040
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Thu 47 45 SE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 47 45 SE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 47 45 SE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 47 45 SE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 48 46 SE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 50 48 SE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 51 49 SE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 51 49 SE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 52 50 SE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 51 49 SE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 52 50 SE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 51 49 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 50 48 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 47 45 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 46 44 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 46 44 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 45 43 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 45 43 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 46 44 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 44 42 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 44 42 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 44 42 NE 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 44 42 E 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 43 41 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 43 41 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 44 42 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 44 42 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 44 42 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 46 44 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 52 50 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 55 54 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 56 56 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 57 57 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 57 57 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 58 57 N 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 56 54 N 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 55 53 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 51 49 N 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 49 47 N 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 49 47 N 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 48 46 N 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 48 46 N 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 49 47 N 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 47 45 N 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 46 44 N 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 46 44 N 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 46 44 N 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 45 43 N 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 45 43 N 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 46 44 N 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 46 44 N 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 46 44 N 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 49 47 N 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 58 57 N 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 62 62 N 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 64 64 N 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 64 64 N 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 65 65 N 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 65 64 N 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 63 62 N 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 61 59 N 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 56 54 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 53 51 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 52 50 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 52 50 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 52 50 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 52 50 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 50 48 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 49 47 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 49 47 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 49 47 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 48 46 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 47 45 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 48 46 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 48 46 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 48 46 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 51 49 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 59 57 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 62 61 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 64 63 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 64 63 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 66 65 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 65 64 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 63 61 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 61 59 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 55 53 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 52 50 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 51 49 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 50 48 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 50 48 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 51 49 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 48 46 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 48 46 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 48 46 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 47 45 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 46 44 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 45 43 N 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 46 44 N 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 46 44 N 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 46 44 N 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 47 45 N 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 52 50 N 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 54 54 N 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 55 55 N 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 55 55 N 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 56 56 N 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 56 55 N 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 54 53 N 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 52 50 N 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 48 46 N 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 46 44 N 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 45 43 N 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 45 43 N 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 45 43 N 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 45 43 N 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 43 41 N 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 43 41 N 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 43 41 N 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 42 40 N 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 41 39 N 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 41 39 N 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 42 40 N 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 42 40 N 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 42 40 N 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 44 42 N 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 52 51 N 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 54 54 N 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 56 56 N 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 57 58 N 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 58 58 N 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 57 57 N 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 56 55 N 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 54 52 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 50 48 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 47 45 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 46 44 N 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 46 44 N 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 46 44 N 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 47 45 N 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 45 43 N 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 44 42 N 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 44 42 N 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 44 42 N 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 42 40 N 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst