Detailed Predictions for: Marshall
Launch Altitude (f): 4040
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 64 62 SE 1 2946 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 65 63 E 1 2946 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 67 65 SE 1 2946 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 69 68 S 2 2946 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 72 72 S 3 3450 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 74 75 S 3 4038 4040 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 77 79 S 6 4698 4197 157 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 80 83 S 7 5513 4853 813 Blue 9
1 PM Sat 83 87 SW 7 6367 5863 1823 Blue 13
2 PM Sat 85 89 SW 9 8054 6226 2186 Blue 15
3 PM Sat 85 88 SW 9 6496 6097 2057 Blue 14
4 PM Sat 86 87 SW 10 6367 5863 1823 Blue 13
5 PM Sat 84 84 SW 12 5898 5017 977 Blue 10
6 PM Sat 80 78 SW 10 4533 4040 0 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 76 74 SW 9 3873 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 72 70 SW 3 3020 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 69 67 S 2 2946 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 68 66 S 2 2946 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 67 65 E 1 2946 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 66 64 E 1 2946 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 66 64 E 1 2946 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 65 63 E 1 2946 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 64 62 E 1 2946 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 64 62 E 1 2946 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 64 62 NE 2 2946 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 65 63 NE 2 2946 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 67 65 NE 2 2946 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 69 68 S 2 2946 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 72 72 S 2 3450 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 74 76 S 3 4203 4040 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 78 83 SW 6 5513 4853 813 Blue 9
12 Noon Sun 82 88 SW 7 6496 6097 2057 Blue 14
1 PM Sun 86 93 SW 6 9661 8648 4608 Blue 19
2 PM Sun 89 95 SW 7 10652 9267 5227 Blue 21
3 PM Sun 89 94 SW 8 10203 9021 4981 Blue 20
4 PM Sun 90 93 SW 8 9661 8648 4608 Blue 19
5 PM Sun 88 88 SW 9 6496 6097 2057 Blue 14
6 PM Sun 84 83 SW 8 5513 4853 813 Blue 9
7 PM Sun 79 77 SW 7 4368 4040 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sun 75 73 S 1 3664 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 72 70 SE 1 3020 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 71 69 SE 1 2946 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 70 68 E 0 2946 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 70 68 E 1 2946 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 70 68 N 2 2946 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 70 68 N 6 2946 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 70 68 N 7 2946 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 71 69 N 8 2946 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 73 71 N 10 3235 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 76 74 N 9 3873 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 80 78 N 9 4533 4040 0 Blue 4
8 AM Mon 83 82 N 12 5208 4689 649 Blue 8
9 AM Mon 86 86 N 8 6239 5483 1443 Blue 12
10 AM Mon 88 90 N 3 8775 6354 2314 Blue 16
11 AM Mon 89 93 SW 5 9661 8648 4608 Blue 19
12 Noon Mon 91 96 SW 5 11023 9569 5529 Blue 22
1 PM Mon 93 98 SW 6 11642 10561 6521 White 24
2 PM Mon 95 100 S 6 12060 11275 7235 White 26
3 PM Mon 97 101 SW 7 12265 11565 7525 White 27
4 PM Mon 97 99 SW 7 11852 10929 6889 White 25
5 PM Mon 97 97 SW 12 11354 10081 6041 Blue 23
6 PM Mon 93 92 SW 9 9322 7937 3897 Blue 18
7 PM Mon 88 86 S 8 6239 5483 1443 Blue 12
8 PM Mon 82 80 S 6 4862 4361 321 Blue 6
9 PM Mon 78 76 SE 5 4203 4040 0 Blue 2
10 PM Mon 76 74 E 2 3873 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 76 74 NE 2 3873 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 77 75 NE 5 4038 4040 0 Blue 1
1 AM Tue 78 76 NE 8 4203 4040 0 Blue 2
2 AM Tue 80 78 N 12 4533 4040 0 Blue 4
3 AM Tue 81 79 N 13 4698 4197 157 Blue 5
4 AM Tue 81 79 N 15 4698 4197 157 Blue 5
5 AM Tue 81 79 N 15 4698 4197 157 Blue 5
6 AM Tue 82 80 N 15 4862 4361 321 Blue 6
7 AM Tue 84 82 N 15 5208 4689 649 Blue 8
8 AM Tue 87 86 N 18 6239 5483 1443 Blue 12
9 AM Tue 91 91 N 18 9069 6482 2442 Blue 17
10 AM Tue 95 97 N 18 11354 10081 6041 Blue 23
11 AM Tue 98 102 S 3 12471 11853 7813 White 28
12 Noon Tue 100 105 S 3 13084 13084 9044 White 31
1 PM Tue 101 106 S 3 13288 13288 9248 White 32
2 PM Tue 102 107 SW 13 13490 13490 9450 White 33
3 PM Tue 102 106 SW 13 13288 13288 9248 White 32
4 PM Tue 102 104 SW 13 12880 12880 8840 White 30
5 PM Tue 100 100 SW 12 12060 11275 7235 White 26
6 PM Tue 97 96 SW 12 11023 9569 5529 Blue 22
7 PM Tue 93 91 SW 12 9069 6482 2442 Blue 17
8 PM Tue 89 87 S 6 6367 5863 1823 Blue 13
9 PM Tue 86 84 S 6 5898 5017 977 Blue 10
10 PM Tue 83 81 S 6 5028 4525 485 Blue 7
11 PM Tue 82 80 NE 3 4862 4361 321 Blue 6
12 Midnight Wed 82 80 NE 3 4862 4361 321 Blue 6
1 AM Wed 83 81 NE 3 5028 4525 485 Blue 7
2 AM Wed 84 82 N 13 5208 4689 649 Blue 8
3 AM Wed 84 82 N 13 5208 4689 649 Blue 8
4 AM Wed 84 82 N 13 5208 4689 649 Blue 8
5 AM Wed 84 82 N 13 5208 4689 649 Blue 8
6 AM Wed 85 83 N 13 5513 4853 813 Blue 9
7 AM Wed 87 85 N 13 6110 5195 1155 Blue 11
8 AM Wed 88 87 N 10 6367 5863 1823 Blue 13
9 AM Wed 90 90 N 10 8775 6354 2314 Blue 16
10 AM Wed 91 93 N 10 9661 8648 4608 Blue 19
11 AM Wed 92 96 SW 8 11023 9569 5529 Blue 22
12 Noon Wed 94 99 SW 8 11852 10929 6889 White 25
1 PM Wed 97 102 SW 8 12471 11853 7813 White 28
2 PM Wed 99 104 SW 13 12880 12880 8840 White 30
3 PM Wed 100 104 SW 13 12880 12880 8840 White 30
4 PM Wed 100 102 SW 13 12471 11853 7813 White 28
5 PM Wed 99 99 SW 12 11852 10929 6889 White 25
6 PM Wed 96 95 SW 12 10652 9267 5227 Blue 21
7 PM Wed 92 90 SW 12 8775 6354 2314 Blue 16
8 PM Wed 89 87 S 6 6367 5863 1823 Blue 13
9 PM Wed 86 84 S 6 5898 5017 977 Blue 10
10 PM Wed 84 82 S 6 5208 4689 649 Blue 8
11 PM Wed 82 80 NE 2 4862 4361 321 Blue 6
12 Midnight Thu 82 80 NE 2 4862 4361 321 Blue 6
1 AM Thu 82 80 NE 2 4862 4361 321 Blue 6
2 AM Thu 82 80 N 7 4862 4361 321 Blue 6
3 AM Thu 80 78 N 7 4533 4040 0 Blue 4
4 AM Thu 79 77 N 7 4368 4040 0 Blue 3
5 AM Thu 79 77 N 8 4368 4040 0 Blue 3
6 AM Thu 80 78 N 8 4533 4040 0 Blue 4
7 AM Thu 82 80 N 8 4862 4361 321 Blue 6
8 AM Thu 84 83 NW 3 5513 4853 813 Blue 9
9 AM Thu 86 86 NW 3 6239 5483 1443 Blue 12
10 AM Thu 88 90 NW 3 8775 6354 2314 Blue 16
11 AM Thu 90 94 SW 8 10203 9021 4981 Blue 20
12 Noon Thu 92 97 SW 8 11354 10081 6041 Blue 23
1 PM Thu 94 99 SW 8 11852 10929 6889 White 25
2 PM Thu 96 101 SW 13 12265 11565 7525 White 27
3 PM Thu 97 101 SW 13 12265 11565 7525 White 27
4 PM Thu 97 99 SW 13 11852 10929 6889 White 25
5 PM Thu 95 95 SW 12 10652 9267 5227 Blue 21
6 PM Thu 92 91 SW 12 9069 6482 2442 Blue 17
7 PM Thu 87 85 SW 12 6110 5195 1155 Blue 11
8 PM Thu 82 80 S 3 4862 4361 321 Blue 6
9 PM Thu 79 77 S 3 4368 4040 0 Blue 3
10 PM Thu 76 74 S 3 3873 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 75 73 SE 2 3664 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 73 71 SE 2 3235 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 72 70 SE 2 3020 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 71 69 SE 1 2946 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 69 67 SE 1 2946 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 68 66 SE 1 2946 4040 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst