Detailed Predictions for: Marshall
Launch Altitude (f): 4040
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

26 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 49 47 NE 2 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 50 48 NE 2 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 50 48 NE 2 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 52 50 E 2 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 58 57 S 1 2830 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 61 61 S 2 3048 4040 0 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 64 65 S 6 4330 4040 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Tue 66 67 S 6 5501 4040 0 Blue 7
1 PM Tue 68 69 S 7 6117 4842 802 Blue 9
2 PM Tue 68 69 S 8 6117 4842 802 Blue 9
3 PM Tue 69 69 SW 9 6117 4842 802 Blue 9
4 PM Tue 68 67 SW 9 5501 4040 0 Blue 7
5 PM Tue 68 66 SW 10 4874 4040 0 Blue 6
6 PM Tue 63 61 SW 9 3048 4040 0 Blue 1
7 PM Tue 58 56 SW 7 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 56 54 S 5 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 53 51 SE 5 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 52 50 SE 3 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 52 50 E 3 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 51 49 E 3 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 50 48 E 3 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 49 47 E 3 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 49 47 E 3 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 48 46 E 3 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 48 46 E 3 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 49 47 SE 3 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 48 46 SE 3 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 50 48 SE 3 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 54 52 SE 5 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 57 56 S 6 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 59 59 S 7 2944 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 61 61 S 8 3048 4040 0 Blue 1
1 PM Wed 62 63 S 9 3250 4040 0 Blue 3
2 PM Wed 62 62 SW 10 3115 4040 0 Blue 2
3 PM Wed 63 63 SW 10 3250 4040 0 Blue 3
4 PM Wed 63 62 SW 12 3115 4040 0 Blue 2
5 PM Wed 62 60 SW 12 3000 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 58 56 SW 10 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 55 53 SW 9 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 53 51 SW 8 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 51 49 SW 7 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 50 48 S 7 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 50 48 S 7 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 49 47 S 6 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 49 47 S 5 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 48 46 S 5 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 48 46 S 5 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 47 45 SE 5 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 47 45 SE 5 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 48 46 SE 5 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 47 45 S 3 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 49 47 S 3 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 53 52 S 5 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 56 56 S 6 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 58 60 S 7 3000 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 60 63 SW 8 3250 4040 0 Blue 3
1 PM Thu 61 64 SW 8 3769 4040 0 Blue 4
2 PM Thu 61 64 SW 9 3769 4040 0 Blue 4
3 PM Thu 62 64 SW 10 3769 4040 0 Blue 4
4 PM Thu 62 62 SW 10 3115 4040 0 Blue 2
5 PM Thu 61 60 SW 10 3000 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 58 56 W 8 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 54 52 W 7 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 52 50 NW 6 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 50 48 NW 8 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 49 47 N 10 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 49 47 N 14 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 48 46 N 14 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 48 46 N 14 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 47 45 N 13 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 47 45 N 14 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 46 44 N 15 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 46 44 N 15 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 47 45 N 15 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 46 44 N 15 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 49 47 N 18 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 55 54 N 18 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 58 59 N 18 2944 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 60 62 N 18 3115 4040 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Fri 63 66 N 18 4874 4040 0 Blue 6
1 PM Fri 65 68 N 18 5810 4306 266 Blue 8
2 PM Fri 66 69 NW 13 6117 4842 802 Blue 9
3 PM Fri 66 68 NW 13 5810 4306 266 Blue 8
4 PM Fri 66 66 NW 13 4874 4040 0 Blue 6
5 PM Fri 65 64 SW 12 3769 4040 0 Blue 4
6 PM Fri 60 58 SW 12 2887 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 55 53 SW 12 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 53 51 N 8 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 50 48 N 8 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 49 47 N 8 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 49 47 N 14 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 48 46 N 14 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 47 45 N 14 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 46 44 N 20 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 46 44 N 20 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 45 43 N 20 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 45 43 N 21 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 46 44 N 21 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 46 44 N 21 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 48 46 N 22 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 54 53 N 22 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 58 59 N 22 2944 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 61 63 N 22 3250 4040 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Sat 64 67 N 22 5501 4040 0 Blue 7
1 PM Sat 66 70 N 22 6422 5453 1413 Blue 10
2 PM Sat 67 70 N 17 6422 5453 1413 Blue 10
3 PM Sat 67 69 N 17 6117 4842 802 Blue 9
4 PM Sat 66 66 N 17 4874 4040 0 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 66 65 N 15 4330 4040 0 Blue 5
6 PM Sat 61 59 N 15 2944 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 57 55 N 15 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 54 52 N 10 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 52 50 N 10 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 51 49 N 10 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 51 49 N 18 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 50 48 N 18 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 49 47 N 18 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 48 46 N 20 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 48 46 N 20 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 47 45 N 20 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 47 45 N 17 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 48 46 N 17 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 48 46 N 17 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 50 48 N 16 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 56 55 N 16 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 60 61 N 16 3048 4040 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 63 66 N 14 4874 4040 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Sun 66 70 N 14 6422 5453 1413 Blue 10
1 PM Sun 68 72 N 14 7297 6086 2046 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 69 72 N 13 7297 6086 2046 Blue 12
3 PM Sun 69 71 N 13 6724 5782 1742 Blue 11
4 PM Sun 69 69 N 13 6117 4842 802 Blue 9
5 PM Sun 68 67 N 9 5501 4040 0 Blue 7
6 PM Sun 64 62 N 9 3115 4040 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 59 57 N 9 2830 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 57 55 N 5 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 55 53 N 5 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 54 52 N 5 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 54 52 N 9 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 52 50 N 9 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 52 50 N 9 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 51 49 N 10 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 51 49 N 10 2812 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 50 48 N 10 2812 4040 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst