Detailed Predictions for: Marshall
Launch Altitude (f): 4040
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

27 MAY 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 49 47 N 5 2570 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 50 48 N 6 2983 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 53 51 N 5 3675 4040 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 56 55 N 5 4561 4407 367 White 4
9 AM Sun 58 59 N 2 5153 4809 769 Blue 7
10 AM Sun 61 64 NW 1 5824 5389 1349 Blue 12
11 AM Sun 63 67 SW 5 6165 5810 1770 Blue 15
12 Noon Sun 66 71 SW 5 6453 6229 2189 Blue 19
1 PM Sun 68 73 SW 6 6598 6373 2333 Blue 21
2 PM Sun 69 74 SW 8 6670 6445 2405 Blue 22
3 PM Sun 71 74 SW 9 6670 6445 2405 Blue 22
4 PM Sun 70 72 SW 9 6526 6301 2261 Blue 20
5 PM Sun 70 70 SW 10 6381 6157 2117 Blue 18
6 PM Sun 67 65 SW 9 5971 5519 1479 Blue 13
7 PM Sun 64 62 SW 8 5531 5144 1104 Blue 10
8 PM Sun 60 58 SW 3 5030 4711 671 Blue 6
9 PM Sun 57 55 SW 2 4561 4407 367 White 4
10 PM Sun 56 54 S 1 4339 4172 132 White 0
11 PM Sun 55 53 SE 0 4118 4040 0 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 55 53 E 0 4118 4040 0 White 0
1 AM Mon 55 53 NE 1 4118 4040 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 55 53 NE 5 4118 4040 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 54 52 N 5 3897 4040 0 White 0
4 AM Mon 54 52 N 5 3897 4040 0 White 0
5 AM Mon 55 53 N 8 4118 4040 0 White 0
6 AM Mon 58 56 N 10 4794 4513 473 White 5
7 AM Mon 62 60 N 12 5276 4899 859 Blue 8
8 AM Mon 66 65 N 9 5971 5519 1479 Blue 13
9 AM Mon 70 71 N 8 6453 6229 2189 Blue 19
10 AM Mon 73 76 N 5 7010 6589 2549 Blue 24
11 AM Mon 75 80 W 2 8139 7255 3215 Blue 28
12 Noon Mon 77 83 SW 3 8856 8092 4052 Blue 31
1 PM Mon 78 84 SW 5 9084 8367 4327 Blue 32
2 PM Mon 79 85 SW 9 9339 8612 4572 Blue 33
3 PM Mon 78 82 SW 9 8650 7815 3775 Blue 30
4 PM Mon 79 81 SW 9 8416 7536 3496 Blue 29
5 PM Mon 77 77 SW 9 7295 6661 2621 Blue 25
6 PM Mon 73 72 SW 8 6526 6301 2261 Blue 20
7 PM Mon 69 67 SW 7 6165 5810 1770 Blue 15
8 PM Mon 65 63 SW 1 5678 5267 1227 Blue 11
9 PM Mon 62 60 W 1 5276 4899 859 Blue 8
10 PM Mon 60 58 S 1 5030 4711 671 Blue 6
11 PM Mon 60 58 SE 1 5030 4711 671 Blue 6
12 Midnight Tue 59 57 E 0 4907 4613 573 Blue 6
1 AM Tue 59 57 E 1 4907 4613 573 Blue 6
2 AM Tue 59 57 NE 3 4907 4613 573 Blue 6
3 AM Tue 58 56 N 5 4794 4513 473 White 5
4 AM Tue 58 56 N 6 4794 4513 473 White 5
5 AM Tue 59 57 N 7 4907 4613 573 Blue 6
6 AM Tue 63 61 N 8 5399 5022 982 Blue 9
7 AM Tue 67 65 N 7 5971 5519 1479 Blue 13
8 AM Tue 71 70 N 8 6381 6157 2117 Blue 18
9 AM Tue 73 74 N 7 6670 6445 2405 Blue 22
10 AM Tue 75 78 N 2 7578 6733 2693 Blue 26
11 AM Tue 76 81 SW 5 8416 7536 3496 Blue 29
12 Noon Tue 78 84 SW 5 9084 8367 4327 Blue 32
1 PM Tue 80 86 SW 6 9593 8816 4776 Blue 34
2 PM Tue 82 88 SW 9 10092 9286 5246 Blue 36
3 PM Tue 81 85 SW 10 9339 8612 4572 Blue 33
4 PM Tue 81 83 SW 10 8856 8092 4052 Blue 31
5 PM Tue 79 79 SW 10 7859 6973 2933 Blue 27
6 PM Tue 76 74 SW 8 6670 6445 2405 Blue 22
7 PM Tue 72 70 SW 6 6381 6157 2117 Blue 18
8 PM Tue 68 66 SW 2 6093 5665 1625 Blue 14
9 PM Tue 66 64 S 2 5824 5389 1349 Blue 12
10 PM Tue 65 63 SE 2 5678 5267 1227 Blue 11
11 PM Tue 64 62 SE 2 5531 5144 1104 Blue 10
12 Midnight Wed 62 60 S 1 5276 4899 859 Blue 8
1 AM Wed 60 58 SW 1 5030 4711 671 Blue 6
2 AM Wed 58 56 W 0 4794 4513 473 White 5
3 AM Wed 57 55 W 0 4561 4407 367 White 4
4 AM Wed 56 54 SW 0 4339 4172 132 White 0
5 AM Wed 56 54 S 0 4339 4172 132 White 0
6 AM Wed 56 54 S 0 4339 4172 132 White 0
7 AM Wed 57 55 S 0 4561 4407 367 White 4
8 AM Wed 58 57 S 5 4907 4613 573 Blue 6
9 AM Wed 61 62 S 5 5531 5144 1104 Blue 10
10 AM Wed 63 66 S 5 6093 5665 1625 Blue 14
11 AM Wed 66 71 S 8 6453 6229 2189 Blue 19
12 Noon Wed 69 75 S 8 6742 6517 2477 Blue 23
1 PM Wed 71 77 S 8 7295 6661 2621 Blue 25
2 PM Wed 73 79 SW 12 7859 6973 2933 Blue 27
3 PM Wed 74 78 SW 12 7578 6733 2693 Blue 26
4 PM Wed 74 76 SW 12 7010 6589 2549 Blue 24
5 PM Wed 72 72 SW 13 6526 6301 2261 Blue 20
6 PM Wed 70 69 SW 13 6309 6085 2045 Blue 17
7 PM Wed 66 64 SW 13 5824 5389 1349 Blue 12
8 PM Wed 63 61 S 8 5399 5022 982 Blue 9
9 PM Wed 60 58 S 8 5030 4711 671 Blue 6
10 PM Wed 58 56 S 8 4794 4513 473 White 5
11 PM Wed 56 54 S 2 4339 4172 132 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 55 53 S 2 4118 4040 0 White 0
1 AM Thu 54 52 S 2 3897 4040 0 White 0
2 AM Thu 53 51 S 2 3675 4040 0 White 0
3 AM Thu 52 50 S 2 3454 4040 0 White 0
4 AM Thu 51 49 S 2 3231 4040 0 White 0
5 AM Thu 51 49 S 3 3231 4040 0 White 0
6 AM Thu 51 49 S 3 3231 4040 0 White 0
7 AM Thu 51 49 S 3 3231 4040 0 White 0
8 AM Thu 52 50 S 6 3454 4040 0 White 0
9 AM Thu 54 52 S 6 3897 4040 0 White 0
10 AM Thu 57 55 S 6 4561 4407 367 White 4
11 AM Thu 60 64 S 9 5824 5389 1349 Blue 12
12 Noon Thu 62 67 S 9 6165 5810 1770 Blue 15
1 PM Thu 65 70 S 9 6381 6157 2117 Blue 18
2 PM Thu 66 70 SW 13 6381 6157 2117 Blue 18
3 PM Thu 67 70 SW 13 6381 6157 2117 Blue 18
4 PM Thu 66 67 SW 13 6165 5810 1770 Blue 15
5 PM Thu 65 65 SW 15 5971 5519 1479 Blue 13
6 PM Thu 63 61 SW 15 5399 5022 982 Blue 9
7 PM Thu 60 58 SW 15 5030 4711 671 Blue 6
8 PM Thu 57 55 SW 9 4561 4407 367 White 4
9 PM Thu 54 52 SW 9 3897 4040 0 White 0
10 PM Thu 52 50 SW 9 3454 4040 0 White 0
11 PM Thu 50 48 S 3 2983 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 49 47 S 3 2570 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 48 46 S 3 2546 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 48 46 SE 3 2546 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 47 45 SE 3 2546 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 46 44 SE 3 2546 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 46 44 SE 5 2546 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 47 45 SE 5 2546 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 49 47 SE 5 2570 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 51 50 SE 5 3454 4040 0 White 0
9 AM Fri 54 54 SE 5 4339 4172 132 White 0
10 AM Fri 57 58 SE 5 5030 4711 671 Blue 6
11 AM Fri 60 65 S 5 5971 5519 1479 Blue 13
12 Noon Fri 63 69 S 5 6309 6085 2045 Blue 17
1 PM Fri 66 72 S 5 6526 6301 2261 Blue 20
2 PM Fri 68 73 SW 7 6598 6373 2333 Blue 21
3 PM Fri 69 73 SW 7 6598 6373 2333 Blue 21
4 PM Fri 69 71 SW 7 6453 6229 2189 Blue 19
5 PM Fri 68 68 SW 7 6237 5956 1916 Blue 16
6 PM Fri 65 64 SW 7 5824 5389 1349 Blue 12
7 PM Fri 62 60 SW 7 5276 4899 859 Blue 8
8 PM Fri 58 56 NW 5 4794 4513 473 White 5
9 PM Fri 56 54 NW 5 4339 4172 132 White 0
10 PM Fri 54 52 NW 5 3897 4040 0 White 0
11 PM Fri 53 51 N 3 3675 4040 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sat 54 52 N 3 3897 4040 0 White 0
1 AM Sat 55 53 N 3 4118 4040 0 White 0
2 AM Sat 57 55 N 6 4561 4407 367 White 4
3 AM Sat 57 55 N 6 4561 4407 367 White 4
4 AM Sat 58 56 N 6 4794 4513 473 White 5

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst