Detailed Predictions for: Marshall
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.2099918919, -117.302860125, 4040
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

27 FEB 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 44 42 ENE 1 2 2497 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 49 47 NE 1 1 2743 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 53 51 N 0 0 3559 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 53 51 NE 0 1 3559 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 52 50 ENE 1 1 3355 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 51 49 ESE 1 2 3152 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 46 44 E 2 4 2497 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 41 39 ENE 2 6 2497 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 36 35 NNE 3 8 2497 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 39 39 SE 4 9 2497 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 42 43 SW 4 10 2497 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 45 48 NNW 5 11 2948 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 47 50 NNW 6 13 3355 4040 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 48 50 NNW 7 15 3355 4040 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 50 51 NNW 8 17 3559 4040 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 50 50 NNW 9 19 3355 4040 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 50 48 NNW 10 21 2948 4040 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 49 47 NNW 10 22 2743 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 47 45 SW 10 19 2497 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 45 43 ESE 10 16 2497 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 42 40 N 10 13 2497 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 39 37 NNE 9 12 2497 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 36 34 NNE 9 11 2497 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 33 31 NNE 8 10 2497 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 37 35 NNE 8 10 2497 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 41 39 NNE 8 11 2497 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 45 43 NNE 8 11 2497 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 44 42 NNE 8 11 2497 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 43 41 NNE 9 12 2497 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 43 41 NNE 9 12 2497 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 38 36 NNE 9 14 2497 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 34 32 NNE 9 17 2497 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 29 28 NNE 9 19 2497 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 33 33 NNE 9 20 2497 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 37 38 NNE 9 20 2497 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 41 44 NNE 10 21 2497 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 43 46 NNE 8 18 2538 4040 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 45 47 NNE 7 15 2743 4040 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 46 47 N 6 12 2743 4040 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 46 46 SE 6 13 2538 4040 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 46 44 WSW 6 14 2497 4040 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 46 44 N 7 15 2497 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 45 43 WSW 6 12 2497 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 43 41 SE 5 10 2497 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 42 40 NE 5 7 2497 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 40 38 NE 4 7 2497 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 37 35 NNE 4 7 2497 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 35 33 NNE 4 7 2497 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 39 37 NNE 4 7 2497 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 43 41 NNE 4 6 2497 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 47 45 NNE 3 6 2497 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 46 44 NNE 3 6 2497 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 46 44 NNE 4 6 2497 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 45 43 NNE 4 7 2497 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 42 40 NNE 4 7 2497 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 38 36 NNE 3 7 2497 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 34 33 NNE 3 8 2497 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 39 39 SE 2 6 2497 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 45 46 WSW 2 4 2538 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 50 53 N 1 2 3964 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 51 54 WNW 2 4 4166 4040 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 53 55 WSW 3 6 4367 4040 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 55 56 S 4 8 4569 4040 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 54 54 S 4 8 4166 4040 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 53 51 S 4 8 3559 4040 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 53 51 S 4 9 3559 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 50 48 S 3 6 2948 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 48 46 S 2 4 2538 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 45 43 S 1 2 2497 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 43 41 SSE 1 2 2497 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 41 39 SE 2 3 2497 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 38 36 E 2 4 2497 4040 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst