Detailed Predictions for: Marshall
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.2099918919, -117.302860125, 4040
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

16 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 65 63 SE 1 3 2976 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 64 62 SE 2 4 2976 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 64 62 SE 1 3 2976 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 63 61 SE 1 3 2976 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 63 61 SE 1 2 2976 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 60 58 SE 1 2 2976 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 55 53 SE 1 3 2976 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 57 55 SE 1 3 2976 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 64 62 S 2 4 2976 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 69 69 SSW 3 5 3697 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 74 75 SW 5 6 5152 4502 462 Blue 2
11 AM Thu 85 88 SW 6 7 9959 8882 4842 Blue 14
12 Noon Thu 87 91 SW 7 8 11885 9862 5822 Blue 17
1 PM Thu 90 95 SW 7 8 14152 12325 8285 Blue 21
2 PM Thu 91 95 SW 8 9 14152 12325 8285 Blue 21
3 PM Thu 91 94 SW 8 9 13616 11731 7691 Blue 20
4 PM Thu 89 90 WSW 8 9 11256 9539 5499 Blue 16
5 PM Thu 85 84 WSW 7 8 8597 7529 3489 Blue 11
6 PM Thu 80 78 SW 6 7 5661 5146 1106 Blue 5
7 PM Thu 73 71 SSW 4 4 4238 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 68 66 S 2 4 2976 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 67 65 S 2 4 2976 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 66 64 SSE 2 4 2976 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 65 63 SSE 2 4 2976 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 64 62 SSE 1 3 2976 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 64 62 SE 1 3 2976 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 64 62 SSE 1 2 2976 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 64 62 SSE 1 3 2976 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 63 61 SE 1 3 2976 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 63 61 SSE 1 2 2976 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 60 58 SE 1 2 2976 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 61 59 SE 0 1 2976 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 68 66 S 1 2 2976 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 72 72 SSW 3 4 4506 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 75 76 SW 4 5 5322 4767 727 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 84 87 SW 6 6 9596 8549 4509 Blue 13
12 Noon Fri 86 90 SW 6 7 11256 9539 5499 Blue 16
1 PM Fri 90 95 SW 7 8 14152 12325 8285 Blue 21
2 PM Fri 92 96 SW 7 8 14671 12897 8857 Blue 22
3 PM Fri 92 95 WSW 7 8 14152 12325 8285 Blue 21
4 PM Fri 90 91 WSW 7 8 11885 9862 5822 Blue 17
5 PM Fri 86 85 SW 7 8 8934 7872 3832 Blue 12
6 PM Fri 82 80 SW 6 8 7217 5484 1444 Blue 7
7 PM Fri 73 71 SW 4 5 4238 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 69 67 S 2 4 3150 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 68 66 S 2 3 2976 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 67 65 S 1 2 2976 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 66 64 SSE 1 2 2976 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 65 63 SSE 2 3 2976 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 64 62 SE 2 3 2976 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 64 62 SE 1 3 2976 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 64 62 SE 2 4 2976 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 63 61 SE 1 2 2976 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 63 61 SE 1 2 2976 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 55 53 SE 2 4 2976 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 55 53 SE 2 4 2976 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 61 59 SSW 2 5 2976 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 63 63 SSW 4 8 2976 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 66 67 SW 4 10 3150 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 72 75 SW 6 9 5152 4502 462 Blue 2
12 Noon Sat 78 82 SW 7 8 7914 6104 2064 Blue 9
1 PM Sat 84 88 SW 8 9 9959 8882 4842 Blue 14
2 PM Sat 87 91 WSW 8 9 11885 9862 5822 Blue 17
3 PM Sat 87 90 WSW 8 10 11256 9539 5499 Blue 16
4 PM Sat 85 86 WSW 8 10 9267 8212 4172 Blue 12
5 PM Sat 81 80 WSW 8 9 7217 5484 1444 Blue 7
6 PM Sat 82 80 WSW 6 7 7217 5484 1444 Blue 7
7 PM Sat 74 72 SW 3 4 4506 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 67 65 S 2 3 2976 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 66 64 SE 1 2 2976 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 65 63 ESE 1 3 2976 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 64 62 ESE 1 2 2976 4040 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst