Detailed Predictions for: Marshall
Launch Altitude (f): 4040
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

24 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 66 64 E 6 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 68 66 E 6 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 70 68 E 5 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 73 72 SE 3 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 76 76 SE 3 3382 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 79 81 S 5 4422 4040 0 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 81 85 S 7 6163 4594 554 Blue 9
12 Noon Sat 84 89 S 7 7233 6521 2481 Blue 13
1 PM Sat 87 93 S 7 10284 7479 3439 Blue 17
2 PM Sat 89 94 S 8 11203 7762 3722 Blue 18
3 PM Sat 90 94 S 9 11203 7762 3722 Blue 18
4 PM Sat 90 92 SW 9 8088 7195 3155 Blue 16
5 PM Sat 90 90 SW 10 7520 6742 2702 Blue 14
6 PM Sat 86 84 SW 10 5694 4414 374 Blue 8
7 PM Sat 81 79 SW 8 3997 4040 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sat 76 74 S 3 2773 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 73 71 SE 3 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 71 69 SE 3 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 69 67 E 2 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 69 67 E 2 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 69 67 E 2 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 69 67 NE 1 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 68 66 N 1 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 68 66 N 1 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 68 66 N 2 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 70 68 N 2 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 72 70 N 1 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 74 72 S 1 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 77 77 S 2 3565 4040 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 79 81 S 3 4422 4040 0 Blue 5
11 AM Sun 82 85 S 6 6163 4594 554 Blue 9
12 Noon Sun 84 89 S 7 7233 6521 2481 Blue 13
1 PM Sun 87 92 S 7 8088 7195 3155 Blue 16
2 PM Sun 90 95 SW 9 11543 8043 4003 Blue 19
3 PM Sun 90 93 SW 10 10284 7479 3439 Blue 17
4 PM Sun 91 93 SW 10 10284 7479 3439 Blue 17
5 PM Sun 89 89 SW 12 7233 6521 2481 Blue 13
6 PM Sun 86 84 SW 9 5694 4414 374 Blue 8
7 PM Sun 82 80 SW 8 4126 4040 0 Blue 4
8 PM Sun 78 76 S 2 3382 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 76 74 S 2 2773 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 74 72 SE 2 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 73 71 E 1 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 72 70 E 1 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 71 69 SE 2 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 70 68 E 1 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 70 68 E 1 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 69 67 E 1 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 69 67 E 2 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 70 68 E 2 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 72 70 E 2 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 75 73 SE 1 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 77 76 S 3 3382 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 79 79 S 5 3997 4040 0 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 82 84 S 6 5694 4414 374 Blue 8
12 Noon Mon 85 87 S 7 6769 5654 1614 Blue 11
1 PM Mon 89 92 S 8 8088 7195 3155 Blue 16
2 PM Mon 92 94 SW 9 11203 7762 3722 Blue 18
3 PM Mon 92 93 SW 10 10284 7479 3439 Blue 17
4 PM Mon 93 93 SW 12 10284 7479 3439 Blue 17
5 PM Mon 90 89 SW 12 7233 6521 2481 Blue 13
6 PM Mon 86 84 SW 12 5694 4414 374 Blue 8
7 PM Mon 82 80 SW 8 4126 4040 0 Blue 4
8 PM Mon 78 76 S 1 3382 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 75 73 SE 1 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 74 72 E 1 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 73 71 NE 1 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 72 70 N 1 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 71 69 NE 0 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 71 69 NE 1 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 70 68 NE 3 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 69 67 NE 3 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 69 67 E 2 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 71 69 E 2 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 74 72 E 2 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 77 75 SW 1 3082 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 80 80 SW 1 4126 4040 0 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 83 84 SW 1 5694 4414 374 Blue 8
11 AM Tue 86 90 SW 3 7520 6742 2702 Blue 14
12 Noon Tue 88 93 SW 3 10284 7479 3439 Blue 17
1 PM Tue 90 95 SW 3 11543 8043 4003 Blue 19
2 PM Tue 92 97 SW 6 12407 11114 7074 Blue 21
3 PM Tue 92 96 SW 6 11878 9752 5712 Blue 20
4 PM Tue 93 95 SW 6 11543 8043 4003 Blue 19
5 PM Tue 91 91 SW 6 7805 6963 2923 Blue 15
6 PM Tue 87 85 SW 6 6163 4594 554 Blue 9
7 PM Tue 82 80 SW 6 4126 4040 0 Blue 4
8 PM Tue 77 75 SW 1 3082 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 75 73 SW 1 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 74 72 SW 1 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 73 71 S 1 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 72 70 S 1 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 71 69 S 1 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 70 68 SW 2 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 69 67 SW 2 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 69 67 SW 2 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 70 68 E 2 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 71 69 E 2 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 72 70 E 2 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 74 72 SW 2 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 77 77 SW 2 3565 4040 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 79 81 SW 2 4422 4040 0 Blue 5
11 AM Wed 82 86 SW 5 6546 5182 1142 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 85 90 SW 5 7520 6742 2702 Blue 14
1 PM Wed 88 94 SW 5 11203 7762 3722 Blue 18
2 PM Wed 90 95 SW 7 11543 8043 4003 Blue 19
3 PM Wed 90 94 SW 7 11203 7762 3722 Blue 18
4 PM Wed 91 93 SW 7 10284 7479 3439 Blue 17
5 PM Wed 89 89 SW 8 7233 6521 2481 Blue 13
6 PM Wed 86 84 SW 8 5694 4414 374 Blue 8
7 PM Wed 82 80 SW 8 4126 4040 0 Blue 4
8 PM Wed 78 76 SW 2 3382 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 76 74 SW 2 2773 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 74 72 SW 2 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 73 71 S 1 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 72 70 S 1 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 71 69 S 1 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 70 68 S 2 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 69 67 S 2 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 68 66 S 2 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 68 66 SE 2 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 70 68 SE 2 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 73 71 SE 2 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 76 75 S 2 3082 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 78 78 S 2 3869 4040 0 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 81 83 S 2 5215 4121 81 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 84 88 S 3 6991 6117 2077 Blue 12
12 Noon Thu 86 91 S 3 7805 6963 2923 Blue 15
1 PM Thu 88 93 S 3 10284 7479 3439 Blue 17
2 PM Thu 90 95 SW 6 11543 8043 4003 Blue 19
3 PM Thu 90 94 SW 6 11203 7762 3722 Blue 18
4 PM Thu 91 93 SW 6 10284 7479 3439 Blue 17
5 PM Thu 89 89 SW 7 7233 6521 2481 Blue 13
6 PM Thu 86 84 SW 7 5694 4414 374 Blue 8
7 PM Thu 82 80 SW 7 4126 4040 0 Blue 4
8 PM Thu 79 77 SW 2 3565 4040 0 Blue 1
9 PM Thu 76 74 SW 2 2773 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 74 72 SW 2 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 72 70 S 1 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 72 70 S 1 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 72 70 S 1 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 71 69 S 2 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 70 68 S 2 2562 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 69 67 S 2 2562 4040 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst