Detailed Predictions for: Marshall
Launch Altitude (f): 4040
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

24 JUN 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 64 62 N 7 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 65 63 N 8 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 68 66 N 8 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 75 74 N 7 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 80 81 N 5 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 82 84 N 3 2898 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 85 89 SW 3 3267 4040 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 88 92 SW 3 3707 4040 0 Blue 7
1 PM Sat 91 96 SW 5 4856 4040 0 Blue 11
2 PM Sat 91 95 SW 7 4152 4040 0 Blue 10
3 PM Sat 92 95 SW 7 4152 4040 0 Blue 10
4 PM Sat 93 94 SW 7 4004 4040 0 Blue 9
5 PM Sat 92 92 SW 7 3707 4040 0 Blue 7
6 PM Sat 89 88 SW 6 3190 4040 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 83 81 SW 5 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 78 76 SE 1 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 73 71 S 0 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 71 69 N 0 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 70 68 N 2 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 69 67 N 1 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 68 66 NE 2 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 67 65 NE 5 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 68 66 NE 6 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 68 66 N 6 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 67 65 N 8 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 68 66 N 8 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 70 68 N 8 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 77 76 N 5 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 83 84 N 3 2898 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 85 88 NE 2 3190 4040 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 87 92 S 5 3707 4040 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 90 96 S 6 4856 4040 0 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 93 99 S 6 8959 4825 785 Blue 14
2 PM Sun 93 98 SW 8 7800 4147 107 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 94 98 SW 8 7800 4147 107 Blue 13
4 PM Sun 95 97 SW 9 6395 4040 0 Blue 12
5 PM Sun 94 94 SW 9 4004 4040 0 Blue 9
6 PM Sun 91 90 S 9 3409 4040 0 Blue 5
7 PM Sun 84 82 S 8 2768 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 79 77 S 2 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 74 72 SE 1 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 71 69 S 1 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 70 68 NW 3 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 69 67 NW 5 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 68 66 NW 6 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 67 65 N 6 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 68 66 N 6 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 68 66 NW 6 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 67 65 N 5 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 68 66 N 3 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 70 68 NW 2 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 76 75 SW 2 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 80 81 S 3 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 82 85 S 5 2963 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 84 89 S 8 3267 4040 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Mon 87 93 S 9 3855 4040 0 Blue 8
1 PM Mon 89 96 SW 10 4856 4040 0 Blue 11
2 PM Mon 90 96 SW 14 4856 4040 0 Blue 11
3 PM Mon 90 94 SW 14 4004 4040 0 Blue 9
4 PM Mon 91 94 SW 14 4004 4040 0 Blue 9
5 PM Mon 90 91 SW 14 3558 4040 0 Blue 6
6 PM Mon 87 86 SW 14 3035 4040 0 Blue 1
7 PM Mon 79 77 SW 9 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 74 72 S 6 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 68 66 S 3 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 66 64 S 2 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 65 63 S 1 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 63 61 S 1 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 62 60 S 1 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 61 59 S 1 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 62 60 SE 1 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 62 60 SE 1 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 61 59 E 2 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 62 60 E 2 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 64 62 E 2 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 70 69 S 3 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 75 76 S 3 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 77 80 S 3 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 79 84 S 6 2898 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 82 88 S 6 3190 4040 0 Blue 3
1 PM Tue 84 91 S 6 3558 4040 0 Blue 6
2 PM Tue 85 91 SW 9 3558 4040 0 Blue 6
3 PM Tue 86 91 SW 9 3558 4040 0 Blue 6
4 PM Tue 86 89 SW 9 3267 4040 0 Blue 4
5 PM Tue 85 86 SW 10 3035 4040 0 Blue 1
6 PM Tue 82 81 SW 10 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 75 73 SW 10 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 70 68 S 5 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 65 63 S 5 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 62 60 S 5 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 61 59 E 2 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 60 58 E 2 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 59 57 E 2 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 58 56 SE 1 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 59 57 SE 1 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 59 57 SE 1 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 58 56 E 1 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 59 57 E 1 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 61 59 E 1 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 66 65 S 3 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 71 72 S 3 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 73 76 S 3 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 74 79 S 6 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 77 83 S 6 2833 4040 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 79 86 S 6 3035 4040 0 Blue 1
2 PM Wed 80 86 SW 9 3035 4040 0 Blue 1
3 PM Wed 81 85 SW 9 2963 4040 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 81 84 SW 9 2898 4040 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 80 81 SW 9 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 77 76 SW 9 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 71 69 SW 9 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 67 65 SW 3 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 62 60 SW 3 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 60 58 SW 3 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 59 57 SE 1 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 58 56 SE 1 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 57 55 SE 1 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 56 54 SE 1 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 57 55 SE 1 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 57 55 SE 1 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 56 54 S 0 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 57 55 S 0 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 59 57 S 0 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 65 64 S 3 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 70 71 S 3 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 72 75 S 3 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 74 80 S 6 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 77 84 S 6 2898 4040 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 79 86 S 6 3035 4040 0 Blue 1
2 PM Thu 80 86 SW 9 3035 4040 0 Blue 1
3 PM Thu 81 86 SW 9 3035 4040 0 Blue 1
4 PM Thu 81 84 SW 9 2898 4040 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 80 81 SW 9 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 77 76 SW 9 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 71 69 SW 9 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 67 65 SW 3 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 62 60 SW 3 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 60 58 SW 3 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 59 57 SE 0 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 58 56 SE 0 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 57 55 SE 0 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 56 54 SW 1 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 57 55 SW 1 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 57 55 SW 1 2733 4040 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst