Detailed Predictions for: Marshall
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.2099918919, -117.302860125, 4040
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 25 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Thu 50 48 SSW 9 14 3806 4040 0 White 3
1 AM Thu 50 48 SSW 8 14 3806 4040 0 White 3
2 AM Thu 50 48 SSW 8 14 3806 4040 0 White 3
3 AM Thu 50 48 SSW 8 14 3806 4040 0 White 3
4 AM Thu 50 48 S 8 13 3806 4040 0 White 3
5 AM Thu 50 48 SSW 9 14 3806 4040 0 White 3
6 AM Thu 50 48 SSW 9 16 3806 4040 0 White 3
7 AM Thu 50 48 SSW 9 16 3806 4040 0 White 3
8 AM Thu 50 48 S 9 14 3806 4040 0 White 3
9 AM Thu 50 48 S 9 16 3806 4040 0 White 3
10 AM Thu 50 48 S 9 16 3806 4040 0 White 3
11 AM Thu 48 49 S 8 14 4028 4040 0 White 4
12 Noon Thu 48 50 S 8 14 4250 4099 59 White 5
1 PM Thu 50 52 S 9 17 4693 4693 653 White 7
2 PM Thu 52 54 SSW 11 18 5131 5131 1091 White 9
3 PM Thu 53 54 SSW 11 19 5131 5131 1091 White 9
4 PM Thu 53 53 SSW 10 18 4914 4914 874 White 8
5 PM Thu 54 52 SW 10 18 4693 4693 653 White 7
6 PM Thu 53 51 SW 10 17 4472 4472 432 White 6
7 PM Thu 51 49 SW 9 17 4028 4040 0 White 4
8 PM Thu 50 48 SW 9 16 3806 4040 0 White 3
9 PM Thu 48 46 SW 8 14 3360 4040 0 White 0
10 PM Thu 48 46 SSW 6 13 3360 4040 0 White 0
11 PM Thu 48 46 SSW 6 12 3360 4040 0 White 0
12 Midnight Fri 48 46 S 5 11 3360 4040 0 White 0
1 AM Fri 48 46 S 5 10 3360 4040 0 White 0
2 AM Fri 48 46 S 4 10 3360 4040 0 White 0
3 AM Fri 48 46 S 4 9 3360 4040 0 White 0
4 AM Fri 48 46 SSE 3 8 3360 4040 0 White 0
5 AM Fri 48 46 SSE 3 8 3360 4040 0 White 0
6 AM Fri 48 46 SSE 3 8 3360 4040 0 White 0
7 AM Fri 48 46 SSE 3 9 3360 4040 0 White 0
8 AM Fri 48 46 SSE 4 9 3360 4040 0 White 0
9 AM Fri 48 47 S 4 10 3584 4040 0 White 2
10 AM Fri 49 48 S 5 11 3806 4040 0 White 3
11 AM Fri 49 50 SSW 6 12 4250 4099 59 White 5
12 Noon Fri 50 52 SSW 8 13 4693 4693 653 White 7
1 PM Fri 52 54 SSW 8 14 5131 5131 1091 White 9
2 PM Fri 53 54 SW 9 17 5131 5131 1091 White 9
3 PM Fri 54 54 SW 11 19 5131 5131 1091 White 9
4 PM Fri 55 54 SSW 12 21 5131 5131 1091 White 9
5 PM Fri 55 54 SSW 13 23 5131 5131 1091 White 9
6 PM Fri 54 52 SSW 12 20 4693 4693 653 White 7
7 PM Fri 53 51 S 10 18 4472 4472 432 White 6
8 PM Fri 52 50 SSE 9 16 4250 4099 59 White 5
9 PM Fri 51 49 SSE 9 16 4028 4040 0 White 4
10 PM Fri 50 48 SE 10 18 3806 4040 0 White 3
11 PM Fri 50 48 ESE 11 19 3806 4040 0 White 3
12 Midnight Sat 49 47 E 10 18 3584 4040 0 White 2
1 AM Sat 49 47 ENE 9 16 3584 4040 0 White 2
2 AM Sat 48 46 NE 9 16 3360 4040 0 White 0
3 AM Sat 48 46 NE 9 17 3360 4040 0 White 0
4 AM Sat 47 45 NNE 11 19 3138 4040 0 White 0
5 AM Sat 48 46 N 13 21 3360 4040 0 White 0
6 AM Sat 48 46 N 14 24 3360 4040 0 White 0
7 AM Sat 50 48 NNE 17 26 3806 4040 0 White 3
8 AM Sat 51 50 NNE 17 27 4250 4099 59 White 5
9 AM Sat 53 54 NNE 16 26 5131 5131 1091 White 9
10 AM Sat 56 59 N 13 23 6216 5895 1855 White 14
11 AM Sat 58 62 N 12 20 6866 6286 2246 White 17
12 Noon Sat 61 66 NNW 12 20 7723 7335 3295 White 21
1 PM Sat 63 68 W 12 21 8149 8110 4070 White 22
2 PM Sat 64 68 WSW 13 23 8149 8110 4070 White 22
3 PM Sat 66 69 WSW 14 25 8359 8359 4319 White 23
4 PM Sat 66 67 WSW 16 26 7936 7728 3688 White 21
5 PM Sat 65 64 SW 16 26 7296 6713 2673 White 19
6 PM Sat 63 61 SW 14 24 6650 6168 2128 White 16
7 PM Sat 60 58 SSW 11 19 5999 5766 1726 White 13
8 PM Sat 57 55 SSW 9 16 5351 5351 1311 White 10
9 PM Sat 55 53 S 8 13 4914 4914 874 White 8
10 PM Sat 54 52 SE 5 11 4693 4693 653 White 7
11 PM Sat 53 51 ESE 5 11 4472 4472 432 White 6
12 Midnight Sun 52 50 ESE 5 11 4250 4099 59 White 5
1 AM Sun 52 50 ESE 6 12 4250 4099 59 White 5
2 AM Sun 51 49 E 8 13 4028 4040 0 White 4
3 AM Sun 51 49 E 8 13 4028 4040 0 White 4
4 AM Sun 50 48 E 6 13 3806 4040 0 White 3
5 AM Sun 51 49 E 6 13 4028 4040 0 White 4
6 AM Sun 52 50 E 6 13 4250 4099 59 White 5
7 AM Sun 54 52 E 6 13 4693 4693 653 White 7
8 AM Sun 56 55 S 5 10 5351 5351 1311 White 10
9 AM Sun 59 60 S 5 10 6434 6030 1990 White 15
10 AM Sun 62 65 S 5 10 7510 6975 2935 White 20
11 AM Sun 64 68 SSW 8 14 8149 8110 4070 White 22
12 Noon Sun 67 72 SSW 8 14 8991 8991 4951 White 26
1 PM Sun 69 75 SSW 8 14 9622 9622 5582 White 29
2 PM Sun 70 75 SW 11 18 9622 9622 5582 White 29
3 PM Sun 72 75 SW 11 18 9622 9622 5582 White 29
4 PM Sun 71 72 SW 11 18 8991 8991 4951 White 26
5 PM Sun 72 72 SW 12 20 8991 8991 4951 White 26
6 PM Sun 70 68 SW 12 20 8149 8110 4070 White 22
7 PM Sun 67 65 SW 12 20 7510 6975 2935 White 20
8 PM Sun 64 62 SSW 9 16 6866 6286 2246 White 17
9 PM Sun 62 60 SSW 9 16 6434 6030 1990 White 15
10 PM Sun 60 58 SSW 9 16 5999 5766 1726 White 13
11 PM Sun 58 56 E 5 11 5566 5478 1438 White 11
12 Midnight Mon 57 55 E 5 11 5351 5351 1311 White 10
1 AM Mon 56 54 E 5 11 5131 5131 1091 White 9
2 AM Mon 55 53 E 4 10 4914 4914 874 White 8
3 AM Mon 55 53 E 4 10 4914 4914 874 White 8
4 AM Mon 54 52 E 4 10 4693 4693 653 White 7
5 AM Mon 54 52 ENE 4 10 4693 4693 653 White 7
6 AM Mon 56 54 ENE 4 10 5131 5131 1091 White 9
7 AM Mon 57 55 ENE 4 10 5351 5351 1311 White 10
8 AM Mon 59 58 S 5 10 5999 5766 1726 White 13
9 AM Mon 62 63 S 5 10 7080 6457 2417 White 18
10 AM Mon 65 68 S 5 10 8149 8110 4070 White 22
11 AM Mon 68 72 SSW 9 16 8991 8991 4951 White 26
12 Noon Mon 70 75 SSW 9 16 9622 9622 5582 White 29
1 PM Mon 72 78 SSW 9 16 10262 10262 6222 White 32
2 PM Mon 74 79 SSW 11 19 10468 10468 6428 White 33
3 PM Mon 74 77 SSW 11 19 10056 10056 6016 White 31
4 PM Mon 74 75 SSW 11 19 9622 9622 5582 White 29
5 PM Mon 74 74 SW 12 20 9410 9410 5370 White 28
6 PM Mon 72 70 SW 12 20 8570 8570 4530 White 24
7 PM Mon 68 66 SW 12 20 7723 7335 3295 White 21
8 PM Mon 65 63 SSW 9 17 7080 6457 2417 White 18
9 PM Mon 63 61 SSW 9 17 6650 6168 2128 White 16
10 PM Mon 61 59 SSW 9 17 6216 5895 1855 White 14
11 PM Mon 60 58 ESE 5 11 5999 5766 1726 White 13
12 Midnight Tue 59 57 ESE 5 11 5783 5637 1597 White 12
1 AM Tue 58 56 ESE 5 11 5566 5478 1438 White 11
2 AM Tue 57 55 E 4 10 5351 5351 1311 White 10
3 AM Tue 56 54 E 4 10 5131 5131 1091 White 9
4 AM Tue 56 54 E 4 10 5131 5131 1091 White 9
5 AM Tue 56 54 E 5 11 5131 5131 1091 White 9
6 AM Tue 58 56 E 5 11 5566 5478 1438 White 11
7 AM Tue 59 57 E 5 11 5783 5637 1597 White 12
8 AM Tue 62 61 S 4 10 6650 6168 2128 White 16
9 AM Tue 65 66 S 4 10 7723 7335 3295 White 21
10 AM Tue 69 71 S 4 10 8780 8780 4740 White 25
11 AM Tue 72 76 SSW 9 17 9839 9839 5799 White 30
12 Noon Tue 75 80 SSW 9 17 10673 10673 6633 White 34
1 PM Tue 76 81 SSW 9 17 10878 10878 6838 White 35
2 PM Tue 78 82 SSW 12 20 11082 11082 7042 White 36
3 PM Tue 77 80 SSW 12 20 10673 10673 6633 White 34
4 PM Tue 77 78 SSW 12 20 10262 10262 6222 White 32
5 PM Tue 77 76 SW 13 23 9839 9839 5799 White 30
6 PM Tue 74 72 SW 13 23 8991 8991 4951 White 26
7 PM Tue 70 68 SW 13 23 8149 8110 4070 White 22
8 PM Tue 66 64 S 10 18 7296 6713 2673 White 19
9 PM Tue 64 62 S 10 18 6866 6286 2246 White 17
10 PM Tue 62 60 S 10 18 6434 6030 1990 White 15

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst