Detailed Predictions for: Marshall
Launch Altitude (f): 4040
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Tue 50 48 N 23 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 49 47 N 24 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 49 47 N 24 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 50 48 N 24 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 53 51 N 25 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 57 56 N 24 3962 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 61 61 N 22 4537 4433 393 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 64 64 N 21 4679 4535 495 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 65 66 N 20 5420 4600 560 Blue 9
1 PM Tue 65 65 N 21 5020 4567 527 Blue 8
2 PM Tue 65 64 N 21 4679 4535 495 Blue 7
3 PM Tue 64 62 N 20 4569 4471 431 Blue 5
4 PM Tue 62 60 N 21 4505 4345 305 Blue 3
5 PM Tue 59 57 N 21 4349 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 57 55 N 21 3393 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 55 53 N 22 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 54 52 N 22 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 53 51 N 21 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 52 50 N 22 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 52 50 N 22 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 52 50 N 22 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 52 50 N 22 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 51 49 N 22 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 50 48 N 22 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 50 48 N 22 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 49 47 N 22 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 49 47 N 22 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 50 48 N 21 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 52 50 N 22 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 56 55 N 22 3393 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 60 60 N 20 4505 4345 305 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 64 64 N 18 4679 4535 495 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 67 67 N 17 5695 4675 635 Blue 10
1 PM Wed 69 69 N 16 5850 5389 1349 Blue 12
2 PM Wed 68 67 N 16 5695 4675 635 Blue 10
3 PM Wed 68 66 N 15 5420 4600 560 Blue 9
4 PM Wed 65 63 N 15 4603 4503 463 Blue 6
5 PM Wed 63 61 N 16 4537 4433 393 Blue 4
6 PM Wed 60 58 N 16 4437 4040 0 Blue 1
7 PM Wed 58 56 N 17 3962 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 57 55 N 16 3393 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 56 54 N 16 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 55 53 N 16 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 54 52 N 16 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 54 52 N 17 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 53 51 N 18 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 52 50 N 18 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 52 50 N 20 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 51 49 N 21 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 50 48 N 21 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 50 48 N 22 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 51 49 N 22 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 53 51 N 21 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 56 55 N 20 3393 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 60 60 N 18 4505 4345 305 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 64 65 N 15 5020 4567 527 Blue 8
12 Noon Thu 66 67 N 13 5695 4675 635 Blue 10
1 PM Thu 68 68 N 10 5773 4993 953 Blue 11
2 PM Thu 70 69 N 9 5850 5389 1349 Blue 12
3 PM Thu 69 67 N 8 5695 4675 635 Blue 10
4 PM Thu 68 66 N 7 5420 4600 560 Blue 9
5 PM Thu 65 63 N 7 4603 4503 463 Blue 6
6 PM Thu 61 59 N 7 4473 4040 0 Blue 2
7 PM Thu 57 55 NE 6 3393 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 54 52 NE 5 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 53 51 NE 3 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 52 50 E 3 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 51 49 NE 3 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 50 48 N 5 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 50 48 N 6 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 49 47 N 7 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 46 N 8 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 48 46 N 9 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 49 47 N 9 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 50 48 N 9 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 52 50 NE 8 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 55 53 NE 8 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 58 57 NE 8 4349 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 62 62 S 6 4569 4471 431 Blue 5
11 AM Fri 64 64 S 6 4679 4535 495 Blue 7
12 Noon Fri 66 66 S 6 5420 4600 560 Blue 9
1 PM Fri 67 67 SW 8 5695 4675 635 Blue 10
2 PM Fri 68 67 SW 8 5695 4675 635 Blue 10
3 PM Fri 68 66 SW 8 5420 4600 560 Blue 9
4 PM Fri 66 64 SW 8 4679 4535 495 Blue 7
5 PM Fri 63 61 SW 8 4537 4433 393 Blue 4
6 PM Fri 59 57 SW 8 4349 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 56 54 SE 5 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 54 52 SE 5 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 54 52 SE 5 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 53 51 E 3 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 52 50 E 3 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 50 48 E 3 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 49 47 E 3 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 48 46 E 3 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 48 46 E 3 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 48 46 NE 3 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 48 46 NE 3 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 49 47 NE 3 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 51 49 N 5 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 53 51 N 5 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 56 55 N 5 3393 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 59 59 SW 6 4473 4040 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 61 61 SW 6 4537 4433 393 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 62 62 SW 6 4569 4471 431 Blue 5
1 PM Sat 63 63 SW 7 4603 4503 463 Blue 6
2 PM Sat 64 63 SW 7 4603 4503 463 Blue 6
3 PM Sat 64 62 SW 7 4569 4471 431 Blue 5
4 PM Sat 63 61 SW 7 4537 4433 393 Blue 4
5 PM Sat 60 58 SW 7 4437 4040 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sat 56 54 SW 7 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 54 52 E 3 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 52 50 E 3 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 51 49 E 3 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 51 49 N 3 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 51 49 N 3 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 51 49 N 3 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 52 50 N 12 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 54 52 N 12 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 55 53 N 12 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 56 54 NE 10 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 54 52 NE 10 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 53 51 NE 10 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 53 51 N 12 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 55 53 N 12 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 58 57 N 12 4349 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 61 61 N 6 4537 4433 393 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 64 64 N 6 4679 4535 495 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 66 66 N 6 5420 4600 560 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 67 67 S 3 5695 4675 635 Blue 10
2 PM Sun 67 66 S 3 5420 4600 560 Blue 9
3 PM Sun 66 64 S 3 4679 4535 495 Blue 7
4 PM Sun 65 63 S 1 4603 4503 463 Blue 6
5 PM Sun 63 61 S 1 4537 4433 393 Blue 4
6 PM Sun 61 59 S 1 4473 4040 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 59 57 E 5 4349 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 57 55 E 5 3393 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 55 53 E 5 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 54 52 NE 6 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 52 50 NE 6 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 52 50 NE 6 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 51 49 NE 7 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 51 49 NE 7 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 50 48 NE 7 2867 4040 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst