Detailed Predictions for: Mentone
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.11893, -117.11256, 3170
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Fri 40 38 NE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 43 41 NE 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 46 44 NE 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 46 44 NE 7 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 45 43 NE 7 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 45 43 NE 8 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 45 43 NE 7 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 46 44 NE 7 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 46 45 NE 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 50 50 SE 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 54 55 S 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 57 59 WSW 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 57 60 WSW 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 57 59 WSW 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 57 58 SW 7 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 56 56 SW 7 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 55 53 SW 7 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 54 52 SW 7 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 52 50 SW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 50 48 SSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 49 47 S 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 48 46 SSE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 47 45 SSE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 46 44 SSE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 46 44 SSE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 46 44 SSE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 46 44 SSE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 46 44 SSE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 47 45 S 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 47 45 SSW 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 46 44 SE 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 45 43 E 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 44 43 NNE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 45 45 ESE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 47 48 SW 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 48 50 NW 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 49 52 NW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 50 52 NW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 52 53 NW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 51 51 NW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 50 48 NW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 50 48 NW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 48 46 SW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 45 43 SE 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 43 41 NNE 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 41 39 NE 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 40 38 NE 7 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 38 36 NE 8 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 36 34 NE 9 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 35 33 NE 10 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 33 31 NE 11 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 32 30 NE 12 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 32 30 NE 13 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 31 29 NE 13 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 30 28 NE 14 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 30 28 NE 14 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 29 28 NE 14 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 32 32 NE 16 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 34 35 NE 18 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 36 38 NE 20 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 38 41 NE 18 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 39 41 NNE 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 40 41 NNE 16 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 40 40 NNE 15 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 39 37 NE 15 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 39 37 NE 14 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 37 35 NE 13 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 36 34 NE 11 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 34 32 NE 10 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 31 29 NE 9 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 27 25 NE 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 24 22 NE 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst