Detailed Predictions for: Mentone
Launch Altitude (f): 3170
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

22 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 66 64 NW 0 2671 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 67 65 NW 1 2671 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 68 66 W 0 2671 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 70 69 SW 2 2671 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 73 73 SW 2 3153 3170 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sun 76 78 SW 3 3863 3377 207 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 80 84 SW 6 5408 4355 1185 Blue 13
12 Noon Sun 83 88 W 7 6357 5503 2333 Blue 17
1 PM Sun 85 91 W 6 8039 6315 3145 Blue 20
2 PM Sun 87 92 W 8 8587 6966 3796 Blue 21
3 PM Sun 87 91 W 9 8039 6315 3145 Blue 20
4 PM Sun 88 90 W 9 7330 5925 2755 Blue 19
5 PM Sun 86 86 W 9 5658 5225 2055 Blue 15
6 PM Sun 83 82 W 9 4719 4131 961 Blue 11
7 PM Sun 80 78 W 9 3863 3377 207 Blue 7
8 PM Sun 77 75 W 5 3379 3170 0 Blue 4
9 PM Sun 75 73 W 5 3153 3170 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 74 72 W 3 3048 3170 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sun 74 72 N 2 3048 3170 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Mon 73 71 N 2 2949 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 73 71 N 2 2949 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 73 71 N 3 2949 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 72 70 N 3 2671 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 72 70 N 2 2671 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 72 70 NE 3 2671 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 74 72 NE 3 3048 3170 0 Blue 1
7 AM Mon 76 74 NE 3 3266 3170 0 Blue 3
8 AM Mon 80 79 S 1 4135 3490 320 Blue 8
9 AM Mon 83 83 SW 1 5254 4243 1073 Blue 12
10 AM Mon 86 88 SW 2 6357 5503 2333 Blue 17
11 AM Mon 89 93 W 6 8967 7247 4077 Blue 22
12 Noon Mon 92 97 W 7 10113 9209 6039 Blue 26
1 PM Mon 95 100 W 7 11519 10052 6882 Blue 29
2 PM Mon 96 101 W 8 12829 10317 7147 White 30
3 PM Mon 96 100 W 9 11519 10052 6882 Blue 29
4 PM Mon 96 98 W 9 10380 9382 6212 Blue 27
5 PM Mon 94 94 W 10 9244 7930 4760 Blue 23
6 PM Mon 91 90 W 9 7330 5925 2755 Blue 19
7 PM Mon 87 85 W 9 5511 4669 1499 Blue 14
8 PM Mon 84 82 W 5 4719 4131 961 Blue 11
9 PM Mon 82 80 W 3 4247 3603 433 Blue 9
10 PM Mon 81 79 NW 2 4135 3490 320 Blue 8
11 PM Mon 80 78 N 6 3863 3377 207 Blue 7
12 Midnight Tue 80 78 N 5 3863 3377 207 Blue 7
1 AM Tue 79 77 N 5 3605 3265 95 Blue 6
2 AM Tue 78 76 N 6 3492 3170 0 Blue 5
3 AM Tue 78 76 N 5 3492 3170 0 Blue 5
4 AM Tue 77 75 N 6 3379 3170 0 Blue 4
5 AM Tue 77 75 N 6 3379 3170 0 Blue 4
6 AM Tue 77 75 N 5 3379 3170 0 Blue 4
7 AM Tue 78 76 N 3 3492 3170 0 Blue 5
8 AM Tue 80 79 S 1 4135 3490 320 Blue 8
9 AM Tue 83 84 SW 1 5408 4355 1185 Blue 13
10 AM Tue 86 88 W 2 6357 5503 2333 Blue 17
11 AM Tue 90 94 SW 7 9244 7930 4760 Blue 23
12 Noon Tue 94 99 W 7 10644 9714 6544 Blue 28
1 PM Tue 97 102 W 8 13036 10580 7410 White 31
2 PM Tue 99 104 W 10 13447 12361 9191 White 33
3 PM Tue 99 103 W 12 13241 11166 7996 White 32
4 PM Tue 100 102 W 12 13036 10580 7410 White 31
5 PM Tue 98 98 W 12 10380 9382 6212 Blue 27
6 PM Tue 96 95 W 8 9418 8519 5349 Blue 24
7 PM Tue 93 91 W 6 8039 6315 3145 Blue 20
8 PM Tue 89 87 W 3 5960 5400 2230 Blue 16
9 PM Tue 86 84 NW 3 5408 4355 1185 Blue 13
10 PM Tue 82 80 N 3 4247 3603 433 Blue 9
11 PM Tue 80 78 N 5 3863 3377 207 Blue 7
12 Midnight Wed 80 78 N 7 3863 3377 207 Blue 7
1 AM Wed 81 79 N 9 4135 3490 320 Blue 8
2 AM Wed 82 80 N 10 4247 3603 433 Blue 9
3 AM Wed 82 80 N 12 4247 3603 433 Blue 9
4 AM Wed 82 80 N 10 4247 3603 433 Blue 9
5 AM Wed 82 80 N 9 4247 3603 433 Blue 9
6 AM Wed 82 80 N 9 4247 3603 433 Blue 9
7 AM Wed 83 81 N 9 4360 3854 684 Blue 10
8 AM Wed 85 84 SW 5 5408 4355 1185 Blue 13
9 AM Wed 87 87 SW 5 5960 5400 2230 Blue 16
10 AM Wed 90 92 SW 5 8587 6966 3796 Blue 21
11 AM Wed 94 98 W 9 10380 9382 6212 Blue 27
12 Noon Wed 97 102 W 9 13036 10580 7410 White 31
1 PM Wed 99 104 W 9 13447 12361 9191 White 33
2 PM Wed 101 106 W 12 13858 13858 10688 White 35
3 PM Wed 102 106 W 12 13858 13858 10688 White 35
4 PM Wed 102 104 W 12 13447 12361 9191 White 33
5 PM Wed 100 100 W 12 11519 10052 6882 Blue 29
6 PM Wed 98 97 W 12 10113 9209 6039 Blue 26
7 PM Wed 95 93 W 12 8967 7247 4077 Blue 22
8 PM Wed 92 90 W 5 7330 5925 2755 Blue 19
9 PM Wed 88 86 W 5 5658 5225 2055 Blue 15
10 PM Wed 86 84 W 5 5408 4355 1185 Blue 13
11 PM Wed 84 82 N 2 4719 4131 961 Blue 11
12 Midnight Thu 83 81 N 2 4360 3854 684 Blue 10
1 AM Thu 83 81 N 2 4360 3854 684 Blue 10
2 AM Thu 83 81 N 5 4360 3854 684 Blue 10
3 AM Thu 82 80 N 5 4247 3603 433 Blue 9
4 AM Thu 80 78 N 5 3863 3377 207 Blue 7
5 AM Thu 79 77 N 5 3605 3265 95 Blue 6
6 AM Thu 79 77 N 5 3605 3265 95 Blue 6
7 AM Thu 80 78 N 5 3863 3377 207 Blue 7
8 AM Thu 81 80 SW 5 4247 3603 433 Blue 9
9 AM Thu 84 84 SW 5 5408 4355 1185 Blue 13
10 AM Thu 87 89 SW 5 7002 5633 2463 Blue 18
11 AM Thu 90 94 SW 8 9244 7930 4760 Blue 23
12 Noon Thu 92 97 SW 8 10113 9209 6039 Blue 26
1 PM Thu 95 101 SW 8 12829 10317 7147 White 30
2 PM Thu 96 101 W 12 12829 10317 7147 White 30
3 PM Thu 96 100 W 12 11519 10052 6882 Blue 29
4 PM Thu 95 97 W 12 10113 9209 6039 Blue 26
5 PM Thu 94 94 W 10 9244 7930 4760 Blue 23
6 PM Thu 92 91 W 10 8039 6315 3145 Blue 20
7 PM Thu 89 87 W 10 5960 5400 2230 Blue 16
8 PM Thu 86 84 W 5 5408 4355 1185 Blue 13
9 PM Thu 82 80 W 5 4247 3603 433 Blue 9
10 PM Thu 79 77 W 5 3605 3265 95 Blue 6
11 PM Thu 77 75 W 1 3379 3170 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Fri 76 74 W 1 3266 3170 0 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 75 73 W 1 3153 3170 0 Blue 2
2 AM Fri 74 72 S 0 3048 3170 0 Blue 1
3 AM Fri 73 71 S 0 2949 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 72 70 S 0 2671 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 71 69 S 1 2671 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 72 70 S 1 2671 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 74 72 S 1 3048 3170 0 Blue 1
8 AM Fri 77 76 S 3 3492 3170 0 Blue 5
9 AM Fri 80 80 S 3 4247 3603 433 Blue 9
10 AM Fri 84 86 S 3 5658 5225 2055 Blue 15
11 AM Fri 87 90 SW 8 7330 5925 2755 Blue 19
12 Noon Fri 90 94 SW 8 9244 7930 4760 Blue 23
1 PM Fri 92 96 SW 8 9816 8895 5725 Blue 25
2 PM Fri 93 97 W 10 10113 9209 6039 Blue 26
3 PM Fri 93 96 W 10 9816 8895 5725 Blue 25
4 PM Fri 92 93 W 10 8967 7247 4077 Blue 22
5 PM Fri 90 90 W 10 7330 5925 2755 Blue 19
6 PM Fri 88 87 W 10 5960 5400 2230 Blue 16
7 PM Fri 84 82 W 10 4719 4131 961 Blue 11
8 PM Fri 81 79 W 5 4135 3490 320 Blue 8
9 PM Fri 78 76 W 5 3492 3170 0 Blue 5
10 PM Fri 75 73 W 5 3153 3170 0 Blue 2
11 PM Fri 73 71 SW 2 2949 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 72 70 SW 2 2671 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 72 70 SW 2 2671 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 71 69 S 1 2671 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 71 69 S 1 2671 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 70 68 S 1 2671 3170 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst