Detailed Predictions for: Mentone
Launch Altitude (f): 3170
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

17 SEP 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 61 59 E 2 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 62 60 E 2 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 64 62 E 2 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 66 64 S 2 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 68 68 S 2 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 71 72 SW 3 3751 3211 41 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 73 76 SW 6 4216 3852 682 Blue 6
12 Noon Tue 75 79 SW 6 4853 4211 1041 Blue 9
1 PM Tue 77 81 SW 6 6913 4611 1441 Blue 11
2 PM Tue 79 83 SW 7 8707 5371 2201 Blue 13
3 PM Tue 79 81 W 6 6913 4611 1441 Blue 11
4 PM Tue 79 80 W 6 5465 4381 1211 Blue 10
5 PM Tue 78 77 W 8 4392 3956 786 Blue 7
6 PM Tue 75 73 W 8 3855 3540 370 Blue 3
7 PM Tue 71 69 W 7 3215 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 67 65 W 3 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 65 63 W 2 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 63 61 W 1 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 63 61 S 1 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 62 60 SE 1 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 62 60 SE 1 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 61 59 E 1 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 60 58 E 1 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 59 57 SE 1 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 59 57 SE 1 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 59 57 SE 1 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 60 58 S 0 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 62 60 S 1 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 64 64 S 2 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 67 68 SW 3 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 70 73 SW 6 3855 3540 370 Blue 3
12 Noon Wed 72 76 SW 6 4216 3852 682 Blue 6
1 PM Wed 75 79 SW 7 4853 4211 1041 Blue 9
2 PM Wed 77 81 W 7 6913 4611 1441 Blue 11
3 PM Wed 77 79 W 8 4853 4211 1041 Blue 9
4 PM Wed 78 79 W 9 4853 4211 1041 Blue 9
5 PM Wed 76 75 W 9 4087 3748 578 Blue 5
6 PM Wed 73 71 W 8 3647 3170 0 Blue 1
7 PM Wed 70 68 W 6 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 66 64 W 5 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 64 62 W 3 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 63 61 W 2 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 62 60 W 2 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 61 59 W 1 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 60 58 W 1 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 59 57 NW 1 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 58 56 W 1 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 56 S 1 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 57 55 S 2 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 57 55 S 2 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 58 56 S 2 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 59 57 S 2 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 61 61 S 5 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 64 65 S 6 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 66 69 SW 7 3215 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 69 73 SW 8 3855 3540 370 Blue 3
1 PM Thu 71 76 SW 8 4216 3852 682 Blue 6
2 PM Thu 73 77 SW 9 4392 3956 786 Blue 7
3 PM Thu 73 76 W 9 4216 3852 682 Blue 6
4 PM Thu 73 74 W 10 3959 3644 474 Blue 4
5 PM Thu 72 71 W 10 3647 3170 0 Blue 1
6 PM Thu 69 67 W 9 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 66 64 W 7 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 62 60 W 6 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 60 58 W 3 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 59 57 W 2 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 58 56 W 2 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 58 56 W 1 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 57 55 SW 2 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 56 54 S 2 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 55 53 S 2 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 55 53 SE 2 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 55 53 E 2 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 56 54 E 2 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 58 56 E 2 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 60 58 SE 2 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 63 63 SE 2 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 66 67 SE 2 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 70 73 SW 5 3855 3540 370 Blue 3
12 Noon Fri 73 77 SW 5 4392 3956 786 Blue 7
1 PM Fri 76 80 SW 5 5465 4381 1211 Blue 10
2 PM Fri 79 83 S 6 8707 5371 2201 Blue 13
3 PM Fri 79 81 S 6 6913 4611 1441 Blue 11
4 PM Fri 80 81 S 6 6913 4611 1441 Blue 11
5 PM Fri 77 76 W 8 4216 3852 682 Blue 6
6 PM Fri 73 71 W 8 3647 3170 0 Blue 1
7 PM Fri 69 67 W 8 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 64 62 N 2 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 62 60 N 2 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 61 59 N 2 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 61 59 NE 2 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 61 59 NE 2 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 61 59 NE 2 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 61 59 NE 5 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 60 58 NE 5 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 60 58 NE 5 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 61 59 NE 7 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 63 61 NE 7 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 66 64 NE 7 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 69 67 E 2 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 72 71 E 2 3647 3170 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 74 75 E 2 4087 3748 578 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 76 78 SW 5 4623 4082 912 Blue 8
12 Noon Sat 79 82 SW 5 7516 4840 1670 Blue 12
1 PM Sat 81 84 SW 5 8881 6820 3650 Blue 14
2 PM Sat 84 87 SW 6 10391 8848 5678 Blue 17
3 PM Sat 85 87 SW 6 10391 8848 5678 Blue 17
4 PM Sat 84 84 SW 6 8881 6820 3650 Blue 14
5 PM Sat 83 82 W 7 7516 4840 1670 Blue 12
6 PM Sat 79 77 W 7 4392 3956 786 Blue 7
7 PM Sat 74 72 W 7 3751 3211 41 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 69 67 E 2 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 67 65 E 2 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 66 64 E 2 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 65 63 E 2 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 64 62 E 2 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 64 62 E 2 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 63 61 E 5 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 63 61 E 5 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 63 61 E 5 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 64 62 E 3 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 66 64 E 3 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 69 67 E 3 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 73 71 E 2 3647 3170 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sun 76 75 E 2 4087 3748 578 Blue 5
10 AM Sun 78 78 E 2 4623 4082 912 Blue 8
11 AM Sun 81 83 SW 5 8707 5371 2201 Blue 13
12 Noon Sun 83 87 SW 5 10391 8848 5678 Blue 17
1 PM Sun 85 89 SW 5 10653 10072 6902 Blue 19
2 PM Sun 86 89 SW 6 10653 10072 6902 Blue 19
3 PM Sun 85 87 SW 6 10391 8848 5678 Blue 17
4 PM Sun 85 85 SW 6 9562 7468 4298 Blue 15
5 PM Sun 83 82 W 10 7516 4840 1670 Blue 12
6 PM Sun 79 77 W 10 4392 3956 786 Blue 7
7 PM Sun 74 72 W 10 3751 3211 41 Blue 2
8 PM Sun 70 68 N 3 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 68 66 N 3 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 67 65 N 3 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 66 64 NE 2 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 66 64 NE 2 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 65 63 NE 2 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 64 62 N 3 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 64 62 N 3 2900 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 63 61 N 3 2900 3170 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst