Detailed Predictions for: Mentone
Launch Altitude (f): 3170
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue -999 -1001 - 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue -999 -1001 - 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 62 60 NE 1 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 67 65 E 1 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 72 72 S 1 2647 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 74 75 SW 2 3463 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 76 79 SW 6 4531 3725 555 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 78 82 SW 7 5324 4518 1348 Blue 2
1 PM Tue 80 84 SW 7 5881 5068 1898 Blue 4
2 PM Tue 81 85 W 8 6406 5306 2136 Blue 5
3 PM Tue 82 84 W 9 5881 5068 1898 Blue 4
4 PM Tue 81 82 W 9 5324 4518 1348 Blue 2
5 PM Tue 81 80 W 10 4796 3990 820 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 76 74 W 10 3192 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 71 69 W 7 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 67 65 W 3 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 64 62 W 2 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 63 61 W 2 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 61 59 W 1 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 60 58 W 0 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 60 58 NE 0 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 59 57 NE 1 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 59 57 N 1 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 59 57 N 1 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 59 57 N 1 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 60 58 NW 1 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 59 57 N 1 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 64 62 W 1 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 70 70 W 2 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 72 73 W 2 2920 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 74 77 W 6 3999 3190 20 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 77 81 W 7 5084 4255 1085 Blue 1
1 PM Wed 78 82 W 7 5324 4518 1348 Blue 2
2 PM Wed 80 84 W 9 5881 5068 1898 Blue 4
3 PM Wed 81 83 W 9 5562 4779 1609 Blue 3
4 PM Wed 80 81 W 10 5084 4255 1085 Blue 1
5 PM Wed 80 79 W 9 4531 3725 555 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 76 74 W 9 3192 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 72 70 W 7 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 68 66 W 2 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 66 64 W 2 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 65 63 W 1 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 64 62 N 2 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 63 61 NE 3 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 63 61 NE 2 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 62 60 E 3 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 62 60 NE 3 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 62 60 NE 3 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 62 60 NE 5 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 62 60 NE 5 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 62 60 NE 5 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 67 65 E 1 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 73 73 W 1 2920 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 75 76 W 2 3732 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 78 80 W 5 4796 3990 820 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 81 84 SW 6 5881 5068 1898 Blue 4
1 PM Thu 82 86 S 8 6917 5543 2373 Blue 6
2 PM Thu 84 87 S 9 7182 5833 2663 Blue 7
3 PM Thu 85 87 S 9 7182 5833 2663 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 84 84 SW 13 5881 5068 1898 Blue 4
5 PM Thu 84 83 W 15 5562 4779 1609 Blue 3
6 PM Thu 80 78 W 14 4266 3458 288 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 75 73 W 7 2920 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 71 69 NE 2 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 68 66 N 1 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 67 65 N 1 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 65 63 NE 1 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 64 62 NE 2 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 64 62 NE 2 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 63 61 NE 2 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 63 61 NE 2 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 63 61 E 2 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 63 61 E 2 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 63 61 E 2 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 63 61 E 2 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 68 66 S 3 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 73 72 S 3 2647 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 75 76 S 3 3732 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 77 80 SW 7 4796 3990 820 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 79 83 SW 7 5562 4779 1609 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 81 85 SW 7 6406 5306 2136 Blue 5
2 PM Fri 82 85 W 10 6406 5306 2136 Blue 5
3 PM Fri 83 85 W 10 6406 5306 2136 Blue 5
4 PM Fri 83 83 W 10 5562 4779 1609 Blue 3
5 PM Fri 82 81 W 12 5084 4255 1085 Blue 1
6 PM Fri 78 76 W 12 3732 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 74 72 W 12 2647 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 70 68 W 5 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 68 66 W 5 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 66 64 W 5 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 65 63 NW 1 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 64 62 NW 1 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 64 62 NW 1 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 63 61 NE 1 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 63 61 NE 1 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 63 61 NE 1 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 63 61 E 3 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 63 61 E 3 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 63 61 E 3 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 68 66 E 2 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 73 73 E 2 2920 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 75 76 E 2 3732 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 77 80 SW 7 4796 3990 820 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 80 84 SW 7 5881 5068 1898 Blue 4
1 PM Sat 82 86 SW 7 6917 5543 2373 Blue 6
2 PM Sat 83 86 W 10 6917 5543 2373 Blue 6
3 PM Sat 84 86 W 10 6917 5543 2373 Blue 6
4 PM Sat 84 84 W 10 5881 5068 1898 Blue 4
5 PM Sat 83 82 W 13 5324 4518 1348 Blue 2
6 PM Sat 79 77 W 13 3999 3190 20 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 74 72 W 13 2647 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 70 68 W 3 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 67 65 W 3 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 66 64 W 3 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 64 62 NW 1 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 63 61 NW 1 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 63 61 NW 1 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 62 60 N 5 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 62 60 N 5 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 62 60 N 5 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 62 60 E 2 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 62 60 E 2 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 62 60 E 2 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 67 65 E 1 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 72 71 E 1 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 75 76 E 1 3732 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 77 80 SW 7 4796 3990 820 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 80 84 SW 7 5881 5068 1898 Blue 4
1 PM Sun 82 86 SW 7 6917 5543 2373 Blue 6
2 PM Sun 83 87 W 10 7182 5833 2663 Blue 7
3 PM Sun 84 86 W 10 6917 5543 2373 Blue 6
4 PM Sun 84 85 W 10 6406 5306 2136 Blue 5
5 PM Sun 83 82 W 14 5324 4518 1348 Blue 2
6 PM Sun 79 77 W 14 3999 3190 20 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 74 72 W 14 2647 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 70 68 NW 2 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 67 65 NW 2 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 66 64 NW 2 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 64 62 NE 3 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 63 61 NE 3 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 63 61 NE 3 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 62 60 N 5 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 62 60 N 5 2530 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 62 60 N 5 2530 3170 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst