Detailed Predictions for: Mentone
Launch Altitude (f): 3170
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

23 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 47 45 NE 6 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 49 47 NE 5 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 48 46 E 5 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 50 48 S 5 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 54 53 S 5 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 57 57 S 5 3552 3170 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 61 63 S 6 5401 4855 1685 Blue 8
12 Noon Sat 63 66 S 6 6570 5369 2199 Blue 11
1 PM Sat 66 69 SW 5 7555 6525 3355 White 14
2 PM Sat 68 70 NW 7 7771 6899 3729 White 15
3 PM Sat 68 69 NW 7 7555 6525 3355 White 14
4 PM Sat 69 69 NW 8 7555 6525 3355 White 14
5 PM Sat 68 67 NW 10 6948 5760 2590 Blue 12
6 PM Sat 65 63 W 12 5401 4855 1685 Blue 8
7 PM Sat 61 59 W 9 4502 3220 50 Blue 4
8 PM Sat 58 56 S 1 3221 3170 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sat 56 54 S 1 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 55 53 S 1 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 55 53 N 3 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 55 53 N 2 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 55 53 NE 5 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 54 52 NE 14 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 54 52 NE 15 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 54 52 NE 15 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 53 51 NE 17 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 55 53 NE 16 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 54 52 NE 15 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 56 54 E 7 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 59 58 E 2 4267 3170 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 63 64 E 2 5796 4973 1803 Blue 9
11 AM Sun 66 68 SW 6 7322 6145 2975 Blue 13
12 Noon Sun 69 72 SW 6 8201 7634 4464 White 17
1 PM Sun 71 75 SW 6 8838 8838 5668 White 20
2 PM Sun 73 76 SW 6 9049 9049 5879 White 21
3 PM Sun 73 75 SW 6 8838 8838 5668 White 20
4 PM Sun 74 74 SW 6 8626 8376 5206 White 19
5 PM Sun 72 71 SW 5 7987 7269 4099 White 16
6 PM Sun 69 67 W 5 6948 5760 2590 Blue 12
7 PM Sun 65 63 W 2 5401 4855 1685 Blue 8
8 PM Sun 62 60 SE 2 4862 3549 379 Blue 5
9 PM Sun 59 57 E 3 3552 3170 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 58 56 E 5 3221 3170 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sun 58 56 NE 8 3221 3170 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Mon 58 56 NE 7 3221 3170 0 Blue 1
1 AM Mon 58 56 NE 7 3221 3170 0 Blue 1
2 AM Mon 57 55 NE 18 3108 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 57 55 NE 17 3108 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 57 55 NE 17 3108 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 56 54 NE 18 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 58 56 NE 18 3221 3170 0 Blue 1
7 AM Mon 57 55 NE 18 3108 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 59 57 NE 23 3552 3170 0 Blue 2
9 AM Mon 62 61 NE 23 4981 4237 1067 Blue 6
10 AM Mon 66 67 NE 23 6948 5760 2590 Blue 12
11 AM Mon 69 71 NE 20 7987 7269 4099 White 16
12 Noon Mon 72 75 NE 20 8838 8838 5668 White 20
1 PM Mon 74 78 NE 20 9476 9476 6306 White 23
2 PM Mon 76 79 NE 17 9689 9689 6519 White 24
3 PM Mon 76 78 NE 17 9476 9476 6306 White 23
4 PM Mon 77 77 NE 17 9262 9262 6092 White 22
5 PM Mon 75 74 NE 17 8626 8376 5206 White 19
6 PM Mon 72 70 NE 17 7771 6899 3729 White 15
7 PM Mon 67 65 NE 17 6186 5141 1971 Blue 10
8 PM Mon 64 62 NE 9 5157 4490 1320 Blue 7
9 PM Mon 61 59 NE 9 4502 3220 50 Blue 4
10 PM Mon 59 57 NE 9 3552 3170 0 Blue 2
11 PM Mon 59 57 NE 16 3552 3170 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Tue 59 57 NE 16 3552 3170 0 Blue 2
1 AM Tue 60 58 NE 16 4267 3170 0 Blue 3
2 AM Tue 58 56 NE 17 3221 3170 0 Blue 1
3 AM Tue 58 56 NE 17 3221 3170 0 Blue 1
4 AM Tue 58 56 NE 17 3221 3170 0 Blue 1
5 AM Tue 57 55 NE 18 3108 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 59 57 NE 18 3552 3170 0 Blue 2
7 AM Tue 58 56 NE 18 3221 3170 0 Blue 1
8 AM Tue 61 59 NE 15 4502 3220 50 Blue 4
9 AM Tue 64 63 NE 15 5401 4855 1685 Blue 8
10 AM Tue 68 69 NE 15 7555 6525 3355 White 14
11 AM Tue 71 73 SE 2 8414 7994 4824 White 18
12 Noon Tue 74 77 SE 2 9262 9262 6092 White 22
1 PM Tue 77 80 SE 2 9901 9901 6731 White 25
2 PM Tue 79 82 NE 6 10319 10319 7149 White 27
3 PM Tue 80 82 NE 6 10319 10319 7149 White 27
4 PM Tue 80 80 NE 6 9901 9901 6731 White 25
5 PM Tue 78 77 NE 12 9262 9262 6092 White 22
6 PM Tue 75 73 NE 12 8414 7994 4824 White 18
7 PM Tue 70 68 NE 12 7322 6145 2975 Blue 13
8 PM Tue 67 65 NE 8 6186 5141 1971 Blue 10
9 PM Tue 64 62 NE 8 5157 4490 1320 Blue 7
10 PM Tue 62 60 NE 8 4862 3549 379 Blue 5
11 PM Tue 62 60 NE 14 4862 3549 379 Blue 5
12 Midnight Wed 62 60 NE 14 4862 3549 379 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 62 60 NE 14 4862 3549 379 Blue 5
2 AM Wed 62 60 NE 15 4862 3549 379 Blue 5
3 AM Wed 61 59 NE 15 4502 3220 50 Blue 4
4 AM Wed 61 59 NE 15 4502 3220 50 Blue 4
5 AM Wed 60 58 NE 25 4267 3170 0 Blue 3
6 AM Wed 62 60 NE 25 4862 3549 379 Blue 5
7 AM Wed 61 59 NE 25 4502 3220 50 Blue 4
8 AM Wed 63 61 NE 22 4981 4237 1067 Blue 6
9 AM Wed 67 66 NE 22 6570 5369 2199 Blue 11
10 AM Wed 70 71 NE 22 7987 7269 4099 White 16
11 AM Wed 74 77 NE 9 9262 9262 6092 White 22
12 Noon Wed 76 80 NE 9 9901 9901 6731 White 25
1 PM Wed 79 83 NE 9 10526 10526 7356 White 28
2 PM Wed 81 84 E 5 10734 10734 7564 White 29
3 PM Wed 82 84 E 5 10734 10734 7564 White 29
4 PM Wed 82 82 E 5 10319 10319 7149 White 27
5 PM Wed 80 79 NE 5 9689 9689 6519 White 24
6 PM Wed 77 75 NE 5 8838 8838 5668 White 20
7 PM Wed 72 70 NE 5 7771 6899 3729 White 15
8 PM Wed 69 67 NE 10 6948 5760 2590 Blue 12
9 PM Wed 66 64 NE 10 5796 4973 1803 Blue 9
10 PM Wed 65 63 NE 10 5401 4855 1685 Blue 8
11 PM Wed 65 63 NE 15 5401 4855 1685 Blue 8
12 Midnight Thu 65 63 NE 15 5401 4855 1685 Blue 8
1 AM Thu 65 63 NE 15 5401 4855 1685 Blue 8
2 AM Thu 64 62 NE 18 5157 4490 1320 Blue 7
3 AM Thu 64 62 NE 18 5157 4490 1320 Blue 7
4 AM Thu 64 62 NE 18 5157 4490 1320 Blue 7
5 AM Thu 63 61 NE 21 4981 4237 1067 Blue 6
6 AM Thu 65 63 NE 21 5401 4855 1685 Blue 8
7 AM Thu 64 62 NE 21 5157 4490 1320 Blue 7
8 AM Thu 66 64 NE 17 5796 4973 1803 Blue 9
9 AM Thu 69 68 NE 17 7322 6145 2975 Blue 13
10 AM Thu 73 74 NE 17 8626 8376 5206 White 19
11 AM Thu 76 78 SE 6 9476 9476 6306 White 23
12 Noon Thu 79 82 SE 6 10319 10319 7149 White 27
1 PM Thu 81 85 SE 6 10941 10941 7771 White 30
2 PM Thu 83 86 S 3 11147 11147 7977 White 31
3 PM Thu 84 86 S 3 11147 11147 7977 White 31
4 PM Thu 84 84 S 3 10734 10734 7564 White 29
5 PM Thu 82 81 NE 2 10111 10111 6941 White 26
6 PM Thu 79 77 NE 2 9262 9262 6092 White 22
7 PM Thu 74 72 NE 2 8201 7634 4464 White 17
8 PM Thu 71 69 NE 7 7555 6525 3355 White 14
9 PM Thu 68 66 NE 7 6570 5369 2199 Blue 11
10 PM Thu 67 65 NE 7 6186 5141 1971 Blue 10
11 PM Thu 67 65 NE 14 6186 5141 1971 Blue 10
12 Midnight Fri 67 65 NE 14 6186 5141 1971 Blue 10
1 AM Fri 67 65 NE 14 6186 5141 1971 Blue 10
2 AM Fri 66 64 NE 16 5796 4973 1803 Blue 9
3 AM Fri 66 64 NE 16 5796 4973 1803 Blue 9
4 AM Fri 66 64 NE 16 5796 4973 1803 Blue 9

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst