Detailed Predictions for: Mentone
Launch Altitude (f): 3170
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

27 MAY 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 47 45 S 2 2546 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 47 45 S 1 2546 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 48 46 S 2 2546 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 50 48 S 3 2889 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 53 52 S 3 3827 3292 122 White 0
10 AM Sun 57 56 S 3 4720 4488 1318 White 4
11 AM Sun 61 65 SW 5 5935 5484 2314 Blue 13
12 Noon Sun 64 69 SW 6 6292 6067 2897 Blue 17
1 PM Sun 67 72 W 6 6508 6284 3114 Blue 20
2 PM Sun 70 74 W 8 6652 6428 3258 Blue 22
3 PM Sun 71 74 W 9 6652 6428 3258 Blue 22
4 PM Sun 70 71 W 9 6436 6212 3042 Blue 19
5 PM Sun 70 70 W 9 6364 6140 2970 Blue 18
6 PM Sun 68 66 W 9 6076 5630 2460 Blue 14
7 PM Sun 65 63 W 9 5643 5237 2067 Blue 11
8 PM Sun 62 60 W 5 5247 4878 1708 Blue 8
9 PM Sun 60 58 W 3 5001 4688 1518 Blue 6
10 PM Sun 58 56 W 3 4720 4488 1318 White 4
11 PM Sun 57 55 W 2 4490 4383 1213 White 3
12 Midnight Mon 56 54 W 1 4270 4081 911 White 0
1 AM Mon 56 54 NW 1 4270 4081 911 White 0
2 AM Mon 56 54 N 1 4270 4081 911 White 0
3 AM Mon 55 53 NW 1 4049 3690 520 White 0
4 AM Mon 55 53 N 1 4049 3690 520 White 0
5 AM Mon 55 53 N 2 4049 3690 520 White 0
6 AM Mon 57 55 NE 2 4490 4383 1213 White 3
7 AM Mon 60 58 NE 1 5001 4688 1518 Blue 6
8 AM Mon 63 62 SW 1 5496 5115 1945 Blue 10
9 AM Mon 66 67 SW 1 6148 5775 2605 Blue 15
10 AM Mon 69 71 SW 2 6436 6212 3042 Blue 19
11 AM Mon 72 77 SW 6 7225 6644 3474 Blue 25
12 Noon Mon 75 81 W 6 8348 7466 4296 Blue 29
1 PM Mon 76 82 W 7 8599 7746 4576 Blue 30
2 PM Mon 78 83 W 9 8804 8023 4853 Blue 31
3 PM Mon 77 81 W 9 8348 7466 4296 Blue 29
4 PM Mon 78 80 W 9 8070 7185 4015 Blue 28
5 PM Mon 76 76 W 9 6940 6572 3402 Blue 24
6 PM Mon 73 72 W 9 6508 6284 3114 Blue 20
7 PM Mon 70 68 W 8 6220 5921 2751 Blue 16
8 PM Mon 67 65 W 3 5935 5484 2314 Blue 13
9 PM Mon 64 62 W 3 5496 5115 1945 Blue 10
10 PM Mon 62 60 W 2 5247 4878 1708 Blue 8
11 PM Mon 60 58 NW 1 5001 4688 1518 Blue 6
12 Midnight Tue 60 58 NW 2 5001 4688 1518 Blue 6
1 AM Tue 60 58 NW 2 5001 4688 1518 Blue 6
2 AM Tue 60 58 N 2 5001 4688 1518 Blue 6
3 AM Tue 60 58 N 3 5001 4688 1518 Blue 6
4 AM Tue 60 58 N 3 5001 4688 1518 Blue 6
5 AM Tue 60 58 N 3 5001 4688 1518 Blue 6
6 AM Tue 62 60 N 5 5247 4878 1708 Blue 8
7 AM Tue 64 62 N 2 5496 5115 1945 Blue 10
8 AM Tue 66 65 W 2 5935 5484 2314 Blue 13
9 AM Tue 70 71 SW 2 6436 6212 3042 Blue 19
10 AM Tue 73 76 W 2 6940 6572 3402 Blue 24
11 AM Tue 76 81 W 6 8348 7466 4296 Blue 29
12 Noon Tue 79 85 W 8 9275 8560 5390 Blue 33
1 PM Tue 81 87 W 8 9782 8969 5799 Blue 35
2 PM Tue 82 87 W 9 9782 8969 5799 Blue 35
3 PM Tue 81 85 W 10 9275 8560 5390 Blue 33
4 PM Tue 81 83 W 10 8804 8023 4853 Blue 31
5 PM Tue 80 80 W 9 8070 7185 4015 Blue 28
6 PM Tue 78 76 W 8 6940 6572 3402 Blue 24
7 PM Tue 75 73 W 6 6580 6356 3186 Blue 21
8 PM Tue 72 70 W 3 6364 6140 2970 Blue 18
9 PM Tue 70 68 W 2 6220 5921 2751 Blue 16
10 PM Tue 67 65 W 1 5935 5484 2314 Blue 13
11 PM Tue 65 63 W 1 5643 5237 2067 Blue 11
12 Midnight Wed 63 61 W 1 5370 4992 1822 Blue 9
1 AM Wed 62 60 W 2 5247 4878 1708 Blue 8
2 AM Wed 60 58 W 2 5001 4688 1518 Blue 6
3 AM Wed 59 57 W 2 4884 4590 1420 Blue 5
4 AM Wed 58 56 W 1 4720 4488 1318 White 4
5 AM Wed 58 56 SW 1 4720 4488 1318 White 4
6 AM Wed 58 56 SW 1 4720 4488 1318 White 4
7 AM Wed 59 57 SW 1 4884 4590 1420 Blue 5
8 AM Wed 60 59 SW 5 5124 4786 1616 Blue 7
9 AM Wed 63 64 SW 5 5789 5360 2190 Blue 12
10 AM Wed 66 69 SW 5 6292 6067 2897 Blue 17
11 AM Wed 70 75 SW 7 6725 6500 3330 Blue 23
12 Noon Wed 72 78 SW 7 7509 6716 3546 Blue 26
1 PM Wed 75 81 SW 7 8348 7466 4296 Blue 29
2 PM Wed 76 81 W 9 8348 7466 4296 Blue 29
3 PM Wed 76 80 W 9 8070 7185 4015 Blue 28
4 PM Wed 75 77 W 9 7225 6644 3474 Blue 25
5 PM Wed 74 74 W 10 6652 6428 3258 Blue 22
6 PM Wed 71 70 W 10 6364 6140 2970 Blue 18
7 PM Wed 68 66 W 10 6076 5630 2460 Blue 14
8 PM Wed 65 63 W 7 5643 5237 2067 Blue 11
9 PM Wed 62 60 W 7 5247 4878 1708 Blue 8
10 PM Wed 59 57 W 7 4884 4590 1420 Blue 5
11 PM Wed 57 55 W 2 4490 4383 1213 White 3
12 Midnight Thu 55 53 W 2 4049 3690 520 White 0
1 AM Thu 54 52 W 2 3827 3292 122 White 0
2 AM Thu 53 51 SW 1 3606 3170 0 White 0
3 AM Thu 52 50 SW 1 3384 3170 0 White 0
4 AM Thu 52 50 SW 1 3384 3170 0 White 0
5 AM Thu 52 50 S 1 3384 3170 0 White 0
6 AM Thu 52 50 S 1 3384 3170 0 White 0
7 AM Thu 53 51 S 1 3606 3170 0 White 0
8 AM Thu 55 53 SW 5 4049 3690 520 White 0
9 AM Thu 57 56 SW 5 4720 4488 1318 White 4
10 AM Thu 60 60 SW 5 5247 4878 1708 Blue 8
11 AM Thu 62 66 SW 7 6076 5630 2460 Blue 14
12 Noon Thu 65 70 SW 7 6364 6140 2970 Blue 18
1 PM Thu 68 73 SW 7 6580 6356 3186 Blue 21
2 PM Thu 69 73 W 10 6580 6356 3186 Blue 21
3 PM Thu 69 72 W 10 6508 6284 3114 Blue 20
4 PM Thu 68 69 W 10 6292 6067 2897 Blue 17
5 PM Thu 66 66 W 12 6076 5630 2460 Blue 14
6 PM Thu 64 62 W 12 5496 5115 1945 Blue 10
7 PM Thu 61 59 W 12 5124 4786 1616 Blue 7
8 PM Thu 58 56 W 6 4720 4488 1318 White 4
9 PM Thu 55 53 W 6 4049 3690 520 White 0
10 PM Thu 53 51 W 6 3606 3170 0 White 0
11 PM Thu 51 49 W 2 3161 3170 0 White 0
12 Midnight Fri 50 48 W 2 2889 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 49 47 W 2 2546 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 48 46 S 2 2546 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 47 45 S 2 2546 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 46 44 S 2 2546 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 46 44 S 3 2546 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 47 45 S 3 2546 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 49 47 S 3 2546 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 52 51 S 3 3606 3170 0 White 0
9 AM Fri 55 56 S 3 4720 4488 1318 White 4
10 AM Fri 59 61 S 3 5370 4992 1822 Blue 9
11 AM Fri 62 67 SW 5 6148 5775 2605 Blue 15
12 Noon Fri 65 71 SW 5 6436 6212 3042 Blue 19
1 PM Fri 67 73 SW 5 6580 6356 3186 Blue 21
2 PM Fri 69 74 W 7 6652 6428 3258 Blue 22
3 PM Fri 70 74 W 7 6652 6428 3258 Blue 22
4 PM Fri 70 72 W 7 6508 6284 3114 Blue 20
5 PM Fri 69 69 W 8 6292 6067 2897 Blue 17
6 PM Fri 67 66 W 8 6076 5630 2460 Blue 14
7 PM Fri 64 62 W 8 5496 5115 1945 Blue 10
8 PM Fri 61 59 W 6 5124 4786 1616 Blue 7
9 PM Fri 58 56 W 6 4720 4488 1318 White 4
10 PM Fri 56 54 W 6 4270 4081 911 White 0
11 PM Fri 54 52 SW 2 3827 3292 122 White 0
12 Midnight Sat 53 51 SW 2 3606 3170 0 White 0
1 AM Sat 53 51 SW 2 3606 3170 0 White 0
2 AM Sat 53 51 SE 1 3606 3170 0 White 0
3 AM Sat 54 52 SE 1 3827 3292 122 White 0
4 AM Sat 56 54 SE 1 4270 4081 911 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst