Detailed Predictions for: Mentone
Launch Altitude (f): 3170
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

26 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 47 45 S 6 2477 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 47 45 SE 5 2477 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 47 45 SE 5 2477 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 48 46 SE 5 2477 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 48 46 S 6 2477 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 49 48 SE 7 4579 3170 0 White 0
11 AM Sun 48 46 S 7 2477 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 49 47 S 9 2477 3170 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 49 47 SW 7 2477 3170 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 49 47 SW 7 2477 3170 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 48 46 S 7 2477 3170 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 49 47 SW 8 2477 3170 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 48 46 SW 8 2477 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 48 46 S 9 2477 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 48 46 S 10 2477 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 47 45 SW 9 2477 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 47 45 SW 8 2477 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 46 44 SW 9 2477 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 46 44 SW 7 2477 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 45 43 SW 8 2477 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 45 43 W 5 2477 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 44 42 SW 6 2477 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 44 42 SW 5 2477 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 44 42 SW 2 2477 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 44 42 S 2 2477 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 44 42 S 2 2477 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 45 43 S 2 2477 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 46 44 S 2 2477 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 47 46 S 3 2477 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 49 49 SW 5 4812 3170 0 White 1
11 AM Mon 51 54 SW 5 5672 5570 2400 Blue 6
12 Noon Mon 52 55 SW 6 5702 5605 2435 Blue 7
1 PM Mon 54 57 SW 6 5762 5670 2500 Blue 9
2 PM Mon 56 59 SW 6 5887 5730 2560 Blue 11
3 PM Mon 56 58 W 7 5792 5700 2530 Blue 10
4 PM Mon 56 57 W 8 5762 5670 2500 Blue 9
5 PM Mon 57 56 W 8 5732 5640 2470 Blue 8
6 PM Mon 56 54 W 8 5672 5570 2400 Blue 6
7 PM Mon 54 52 W 8 5465 5160 1990 White 4
8 PM Mon 53 51 W 8 5248 4424 1254 White 3
9 PM Mon 52 50 W 6 5030 3170 0 White 2
10 PM Mon 51 49 W 5 4812 3170 0 White 1
11 PM Mon 50 48 W 3 4579 3170 0 White 0
12 Midnight Tue 50 48 W 2 4579 3170 0 White 0
1 AM Tue 49 47 SW 2 2477 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 48 46 SW 2 2477 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 48 46 SW 2 2477 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 47 45 SW 2 2477 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 47 45 SW 2 2477 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 47 45 SW 2 2477 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 48 46 SW 2 2477 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 49 S 3 4812 3170 0 White 1
9 AM Tue 52 52 SW 3 5465 5160 1990 White 4
10 AM Tue 55 57 SW 3 5762 5670 2500 Blue 9
11 AM Tue 59 63 SW 5 6482 5993 2823 Blue 15
12 Noon Tue 62 67 SW 6 7370 6628 3458 Blue 19
1 PM Tue 65 70 W 6 8946 7295 4125 Blue 22
2 PM Tue 68 72 W 7 9494 8280 5110 Blue 24
3 PM Tue 69 72 W 8 9494 8280 5110 Blue 24
4 PM Tue 68 69 W 9 8367 6958 3788 Blue 21
5 PM Tue 68 68 W 9 7875 6793 3623 Blue 20
6 PM Tue 66 64 W 8 6648 6130 2960 Blue 16
7 PM Tue 63 61 W 7 6148 5789 2619 Blue 13
8 PM Tue 61 59 W 5 5887 5730 2560 Blue 11
9 PM Tue 59 57 W 5 5762 5670 2500 Blue 9
10 PM Tue 58 56 NW 3 5732 5640 2470 Blue 8
11 PM Tue 57 55 NW 3 5702 5605 2435 Blue 7
12 Midnight Wed 55 53 N 2 5642 5535 2365 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 54 52 N 2 5465 5160 1990 White 4
2 AM Wed 53 51 N 2 5248 4424 1254 White 3
3 AM Wed 53 51 N 3 5248 4424 1254 White 3
4 AM Wed 53 51 N 6 5248 4424 1254 White 3
5 AM Wed 54 52 N 6 5465 5160 1990 White 4
6 AM Wed 56 54 N 6 5672 5570 2400 Blue 6
7 AM Wed 58 56 N 6 5732 5640 2470 Blue 8
8 AM Wed 60 59 SW 3 5887 5730 2560 Blue 11
9 AM Wed 62 63 SW 3 6482 5993 2823 Blue 15
10 AM Wed 64 67 SW 3 7370 6628 3458 Blue 19
11 AM Wed 67 71 SW 6 9259 7794 4624 Blue 23
12 Noon Wed 69 73 SW 6 9848 8882 5712 Blue 25
1 PM Wed 71 76 SW 6 10631 9766 6596 White 27
2 PM Wed 72 76 W 9 10631 9766 6596 White 27
3 PM Wed 73 76 W 9 10631 9766 6596 White 27
4 PM Wed 73 74 W 9 10217 9199 6029 White 26
5 PM Wed 72 72 W 9 9494 8280 5110 Blue 24
6 PM Wed 69 67 W 9 7370 6628 3458 Blue 19
7 PM Wed 67 65 W 9 6814 6296 3126 Blue 17
8 PM Wed 64 62 W 5 6315 5875 2705 Blue 14
9 PM Wed 61 59 W 5 5887 5730 2560 Blue 11
10 PM Wed 59 57 W 5 5762 5670 2500 Blue 9
11 PM Wed 57 55 W 1 5702 5605 2435 Blue 7
12 Midnight Thu 56 54 W 1 5672 5570 2400 Blue 6
1 AM Thu 55 53 W 1 5642 5535 2365 Blue 5
2 AM Thu 55 53 SW 1 5642 5535 2365 Blue 5
3 AM Thu 54 52 SW 1 5465 5160 1990 White 4
4 AM Thu 53 51 SW 1 5248 4424 1254 White 3
5 AM Thu 53 51 W 1 5248 4424 1254 White 3
6 AM Thu 54 52 W 1 5465 5160 1990 White 4
7 AM Thu 55 53 W 1 5642 5535 2365 Blue 5
8 AM Thu 58 57 SW 3 5762 5670 2500 Blue 9
9 AM Thu 61 62 SW 3 6315 5875 2705 Blue 14
10 AM Thu 64 67 SW 3 7370 6628 3458 Blue 19
11 AM Thu 67 71 SW 6 9259 7794 4624 Blue 23
12 Noon Thu 70 75 SW 6 10423 9443 6273 White 26
1 PM Thu 72 77 SW 6 10839 10300 7130 White 28
2 PM Thu 74 78 W 8 11046 10734 7564 White 29
3 PM Thu 75 78 W 8 11046 10734 7564 White 29
4 PM Thu 75 76 W 8 10631 9766 6596 White 27
5 PM Thu 74 74 W 10 10217 9199 6029 White 26
6 PM Thu 71 69 W 10 8367 6958 3788 Blue 21
7 PM Thu 68 66 W 10 6980 6462 3292 Blue 18
8 PM Thu 66 64 W 6 6648 6130 2960 Blue 16
9 PM Thu 63 61 W 6 6148 5789 2619 Blue 13
10 PM Thu 61 59 W 6 5887 5730 2560 Blue 11
11 PM Thu 59 57 W 2 5762 5670 2500 Blue 9
12 Midnight Fri 58 56 W 2 5732 5640 2470 Blue 8
1 AM Fri 57 55 W 2 5702 5605 2435 Blue 7
2 AM Fri 56 54 NW 1 5672 5570 2400 Blue 6
3 AM Fri 54 52 NW 1 5465 5160 1990 White 4
4 AM Fri 54 52 NW 1 5465 5160 1990 White 4
5 AM Fri 54 52 N 2 5465 5160 1990 White 4
6 AM Fri 56 54 N 2 5672 5570 2400 Blue 6
7 AM Fri 58 56 N 2 5732 5640 2470 Blue 8
8 AM Fri 61 60 SW 2 6005 5759 2589 Blue 12
9 AM Fri 64 65 SW 2 6814 6296 3126 Blue 17
10 AM Fri 66 69 SW 2 8367 6958 3788 Blue 21
11 AM Fri 68 72 W 6 9494 8280 5110 Blue 24
12 Noon Fri 71 76 W 6 10631 9766 6596 White 27
1 PM Fri 72 77 W 6 10839 10300 7130 White 28
2 PM Fri 74 78 W 9 11046 10734 7564 White 29
3 PM Fri 74 77 W 9 10839 10300 7130 White 28
4 PM Fri 74 75 W 9 10423 9443 6273 White 26
5 PM Fri 72 72 W 8 9494 8280 5110 Blue 24
6 PM Fri 70 68 W 8 7875 6793 3623 Blue 20
7 PM Fri 68 66 W 8 6980 6462 3292 Blue 18
8 PM Fri 66 64 W 5 6648 6130 2960 Blue 16
9 PM Fri 63 61 W 5 6148 5789 2619 Blue 13
10 PM Fri 61 59 W 5 5887 5730 2560 Blue 11
11 PM Fri 60 58 W 1 5792 5700 2530 Blue 10
12 Midnight Sat 58 56 W 1 5732 5640 2470 Blue 8
1 AM Sat 58 56 W 1 5732 5640 2470 Blue 8
2 AM Sat 57 55 NW 2 5702 5605 2435 Blue 7
3 AM Sat 56 54 NW 2 5672 5570 2400 Blue 6
4 AM Sat 54 52 NW 2 5465 5160 1990 White 4

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst