Detailed Predictions for: Mentone
Launch Altitude (f): 3170
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

17 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 55 53 E 2 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 58 56 E 2 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 57 55 NE 2 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 56 54 NE 3 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 59 57 E 2 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 63 61 E 1 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 66 65 SW 2 2908 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 67 67 SW 2 3465 3170 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Wed 68 68 SW 2 3764 3170 0 Blue 3
1 PM Wed 69 69 SW 3 4060 3170 0 Blue 4
2 PM Wed 69 68 SW 3 3764 3170 0 Blue 3
3 PM Wed 69 67 SW 3 3465 3170 0 Blue 2
4 PM Wed 65 63 SW 1 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 63 61 E 0 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 61 59 E 1 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 60 58 E 2 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 60 58 NE 2 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 59 57 NE 2 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 59 57 NE 2 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 58 56 NE 2 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 58 56 NE 2 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 57 55 NE 3 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 58 56 NE 2 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 58 56 NE 3 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 56 54 NE 3 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 59 57 NE 3 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 58 56 NE 3 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 57 55 E 3 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 60 58 E 3 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 63 61 E 1 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 66 65 SW 2 2908 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 67 67 SW 3 3465 3170 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Thu 68 68 SW 3 3764 3170 0 Blue 3
1 PM Thu 70 70 SW 5 4589 3460 290 Blue 5
2 PM Thu 69 68 W 5 3764 3170 0 Blue 3
3 PM Thu 68 66 W 6 3164 3170 0 Blue 1
4 PM Thu 62 60 W 5 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 60 58 W 3 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 57 55 NW 1 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 56 54 N 0 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 56 54 E 0 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 55 53 SE 1 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 54 52 S 1 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 53 51 SE 1 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 53 51 SE 1 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 52 50 SE 2 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 53 51 SE 2 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 52 50 S 1 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 50 48 SE 2 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 50 48 SE 3 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 50 48 SE 2 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 50 48 S 6 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 50 48 SW 7 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 51 49 SW 6 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 51 49 SW 5 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 52 51 SW 5 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 52 51 SW 6 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 52 50 SW 10 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 51 49 SW 10 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 51 49 SW 12 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 48 46 W 12 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 47 45 W 12 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 46 44 W 12 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 45 43 W 10 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 45 43 W 10 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 44 42 W 10 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 44 42 W 9 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 44 42 W 9 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 44 42 W 8 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 43 41 W 8 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 43 41 N 17 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 43 41 N 17 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 42 40 N 12 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 44 42 N 12 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 43 41 N 12 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 42 40 N 9 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 44 42 N 9 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 46 44 N 9 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 48 47 N 8 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 48 48 N 8 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 49 49 N 8 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 50 50 N 12 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 50 49 N 12 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 49 47 N 12 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 47 45 NW 10 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 46 44 NW 10 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 45 43 NW 10 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 44 42 N 9 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 44 42 N 9 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 44 42 N 9 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 44 42 NE 7 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 43 41 NE 7 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 43 41 NE 7 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 43 41 NE 3 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 43 41 NE 3 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 43 41 NE 3 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 42 40 NE 3 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 44 42 NE 3 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 44 42 NE 3 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 43 41 E 5 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 45 43 E 5 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 49 48 E 5 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 51 50 S 3 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 52 51 S 3 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 54 54 S 3 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 54 53 SW 3 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 55 54 SW 3 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 54 52 SW 3 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 51 49 W 3 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 50 48 W 3 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 49 47 W 3 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 48 46 N 2 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 48 46 N 2 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 47 45 N 2 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 47 45 NE 3 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 47 45 NE 3 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 46 44 NE 3 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 46 44 NE 5 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 46 44 NE 5 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 46 44 NE 5 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 45 43 NE 2 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 48 46 NE 2 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 47 45 NE 2 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 46 44 N 3 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 49 47 N 3 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 52 50 N 3 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 55 54 W 5 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 56 55 W 5 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 58 57 W 5 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 58 57 W 7 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 59 58 W 7 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 58 56 W 7 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 55 53 W 5 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 54 52 W 5 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 53 51 W 5 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 52 50 N 2 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 52 50 N 2 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 51 49 N 2 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 51 49 N 7 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 51 49 N 7 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 50 48 N 7 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 50 48 N 10 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 50 48 N 10 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 50 48 N 10 2736 3170 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst