Detailed Predictions for: Mentone
Launch Altitude (f): 3170
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Tue 47 45 E 6 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 47 45 E 5 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 48 46 E 5 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 49 47 E 3 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 51 49 SE 2 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 53 52 SW 2 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 55 55 W 5 3259 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 58 59 W 6 4465 3815 645 Blue 2
12 Noon Tue 60 61 W 6 4529 4412 1242 Blue 4
1 PM Tue 62 62 W 8 4562 4463 1293 Blue 5
2 PM Tue 62 61 W 8 4529 4412 1242 Blue 4
3 PM Tue 62 60 W 8 4497 4325 1155 Blue 3
4 PM Tue 61 59 W 6 4465 3815 645 Blue 2
5 PM Tue 58 56 W 3 3832 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 54 52 W 3 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 51 49 E 2 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 50 48 NE 1 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 49 47 NE 2 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 48 46 E 2 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 49 47 E 2 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 49 47 E 3 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 49 47 E 3 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 48 46 E 2 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 48 46 E 2 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 47 45 SE 2 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 47 45 SE 1 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 47 45 SE 2 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 49 47 SE 2 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 51 49 S 1 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 54 53 S 1 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 58 58 SW 5 4417 3253 83 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 61 61 W 5 4529 4412 1242 Blue 4
12 Noon Wed 63 63 W 6 4594 4496 1326 Blue 6
1 PM Wed 65 65 W 6 4923 4560 1390 Blue 8
2 PM Wed 65 64 W 6 4661 4528 1358 Blue 7
3 PM Wed 66 64 W 6 4661 4528 1358 Blue 7
4 PM Wed 65 63 W 5 4594 4496 1326 Blue 6
5 PM Wed 62 60 NW 5 4497 4325 1155 Blue 3
6 PM Wed 59 57 NE 3 4329 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 56 54 E 3 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 54 52 E 3 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 53 51 E 3 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 52 50 E 3 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 51 49 E 5 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 50 48 E 5 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 49 47 E 5 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 48 46 E 5 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 47 45 E 5 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 47 45 E 5 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 48 46 E 5 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 50 48 E 5 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 52 50 E 5 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 55 53 SE 3 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 58 57 SW 3 4329 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 60 60 SW 3 4497 4325 1155 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 63 64 SW 3 4661 4528 1358 Blue 7
12 Noon Thu 64 65 SW 5 4923 4560 1390 Blue 8
1 PM Thu 66 66 SW 5 5327 4592 1422 Blue 9
2 PM Thu 67 66 SW 5 5327 4592 1422 Blue 9
3 PM Thu 66 64 W 3 4661 4528 1358 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 66 64 W 3 4661 4528 1358 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 64 62 W 3 4562 4463 1293 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 60 58 NW 2 4417 3253 83 Blue 1
7 PM Thu 57 55 NW 2 3259 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 55 53 NW 2 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 54 52 N 2 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 52 50 N 2 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 52 50 N 2 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 51 49 NE 2 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 50 48 NE 3 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 49 47 NE 2 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 46 E 2 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 48 46 E 2 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 47 45 E 2 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 47 45 E 2 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 49 47 E 3 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 52 50 E 3 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 56 55 E 3 3259 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 59 59 SW 3 4465 3815 645 Blue 2
11 AM Fri 62 62 SW 3 4562 4463 1293 Blue 5
12 Noon Fri 64 64 SW 3 4661 4528 1358 Blue 7
1 PM Fri 64 64 W 7 4661 4528 1358 Blue 7
2 PM Fri 65 64 W 7 4661 4528 1358 Blue 7
3 PM Fri 65 63 W 7 4594 4496 1326 Blue 6
4 PM Fri 63 61 W 8 4529 4412 1242 Blue 4
5 PM Fri 60 58 W 8 4417 3253 83 Blue 1
6 PM Fri 56 54 W 8 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 53 51 NW 2 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 52 50 NW 2 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 52 50 NW 2 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 51 49 NE 1 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 50 48 NE 1 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 49 47 NE 1 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 48 46 N 2 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 47 45 N 2 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 46 44 N 2 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 45 43 N 5 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 45 43 N 5 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 47 45 N 5 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 49 47 N 3 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 52 50 N 3 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 55 54 N 3 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 58 58 SW 5 4417 3253 83 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 60 60 SW 5 4497 4325 1155 Blue 3
12 Noon Sat 61 61 SW 5 4529 4412 1242 Blue 4
1 PM Sat 62 62 W 6 4562 4463 1293 Blue 5
2 PM Sat 63 62 W 6 4562 4463 1293 Blue 5
3 PM Sat 63 61 W 6 4529 4412 1242 Blue 4
4 PM Sat 62 60 W 6 4497 4325 1155 Blue 3
5 PM Sat 59 57 W 6 4329 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 56 54 W 6 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 53 51 N 1 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 52 50 N 1 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 51 49 N 1 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 51 49 NE 3 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 50 48 NE 3 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 50 48 NE 3 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 50 48 NE 7 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 50 48 NE 7 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 51 49 NE 7 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 52 50 NE 6 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 53 51 NE 6 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 54 52 NE 6 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 55 53 NE 6 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 56 54 NE 6 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 58 57 NE 6 4329 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 60 60 SW 2 4497 4325 1155 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 62 62 SW 2 4562 4463 1293 Blue 5
12 Noon Sun 64 64 SW 2 4661 4528 1358 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 65 65 SW 5 4923 4560 1390 Blue 8
2 PM Sun 65 64 SW 5 4661 4528 1358 Blue 7
3 PM Sun 64 62 SW 5 4562 4463 1293 Blue 5
4 PM Sun 63 61 S 2 4529 4412 1242 Blue 4
5 PM Sun 62 60 S 2 4497 4325 1155 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 60 58 S 2 4417 3253 83 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 58 56 NE 5 3832 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 56 54 NE 5 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 54 52 NE 5 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 53 51 NE 3 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 52 50 NE 3 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 50 48 NE 3 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 49 47 NE 3 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 49 47 NE 3 2867 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 49 47 NE 3 2867 3170 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst