Detailed Predictions for: Mentone
Launch Altitude (f): 3170
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

1 DEC 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Tue 54 52 E 3 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 55 53 E 3 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 57 55 E 3 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 60 58 E 2 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 62 60 E 1 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 64 63 E 1 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 67 67 SW 2 3860 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 69 69 SW 3 5305 3170 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Tue 71 71 SW 3 6166 4482 1312 Blue 3
1 PM Tue 72 72 SW 3 6586 5272 2102 Blue 4
2 PM Tue 72 71 W 3 6166 4482 1312 Blue 3
3 PM Tue 73 71 W 3 6166 4482 1312 Blue 3
4 PM Tue 71 69 W 2 5305 3170 0 Blue 1
5 PM Tue 69 67 NW 3 3860 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 65 63 NE 3 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 62 60 E 5 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 60 58 E 3 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 59 57 E 3 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 59 57 E 3 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 58 56 E 3 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 58 56 E 3 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 57 55 NE 3 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 57 55 E 3 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 56 54 E 2 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 55 53 E 2 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 54 52 E 2 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 54 52 E 2 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 55 53 E 2 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 57 55 SE 2 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 60 59 S 2 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 63 63 S 2 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 65 65 SW 2 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 67 67 SW 3 3860 3170 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 67 67 W 3 3860 3170 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 67 66 W 3 3175 3170 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 67 65 N 5 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 67 65 N 5 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 64 62 N 7 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 61 59 NE 9 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 58 56 NE 10 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 55 53 NE 12 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 53 51 NE 12 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 52 50 NE 12 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 52 50 NE 13 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 51 49 NE 13 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 51 49 NE 14 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 50 48 NE 13 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 49 47 NE 13 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 48 46 NE 12 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 48 46 NE 12 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 48 46 E 12 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 49 47 E 10 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 51 49 NE 8 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 53 52 NW 5 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 55 54 W 3 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 58 58 W 2 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 59 59 W 2 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 60 60 W 2 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 60 59 NW 2 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 61 59 N 2 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 59 57 NE 3 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 57 55 NE 6 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 54 52 NE 8 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 52 50 NE 10 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 51 49 NE 10 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 51 49 E 9 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 50 48 E 8 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 50 48 E 8 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 49 47 E 7 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 48 46 E 7 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 47 45 E 8 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 46 44 E 8 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 46 44 E 9 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 47 45 E 9 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 48 46 E 9 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 50 48 E 10 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 53 51 E 10 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 55 54 E 10 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 58 57 NE 3 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 60 60 NE 3 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 62 62 NE 3 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 64 64 NE 8 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 64 63 NE 8 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 64 62 NE 8 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 64 62 NE 12 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 61 59 NE 12 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 57 55 NE 12 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 54 52 NE 14 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 53 51 NE 14 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 53 51 NE 14 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 53 51 NE 13 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 52 50 NE 13 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 51 49 NE 13 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 51 49 NE 15 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 51 49 NE 15 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 52 50 NE 15 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 52 50 NE 14 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 51 49 NE 14 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 50 48 NE 14 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 51 49 NE 10 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 54 52 NE 10 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 58 57 NE 10 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 62 62 NE 2 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 65 65 NE 2 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 67 67 NE 2 3860 3170 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 68 68 NE 13 4519 3170 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 67 66 NE 13 3175 3170 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 68 66 NE 13 3175 3170 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 66 64 NE 12 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 62 60 NE 12 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 57 55 NE 12 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 54 52 NE 10 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 52 50 NE 10 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 51 49 NE 10 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 52 50 NE 13 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 52 50 NE 13 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 52 50 NE 13 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 52 50 NE 13 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 53 51 NE 13 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 54 52 NE 13 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 54 52 NE 14 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 53 51 NE 14 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 51 49 NE 14 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 51 49 NE 14 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 54 52 NE 14 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 59 58 NE 14 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 63 63 NE 9 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 66 66 NE 9 3175 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 67 67 NE 9 3860 3170 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 68 68 SE 3 4519 3170 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 67 66 SE 3 3175 3170 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 68 66 SE 3 3175 3170 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 66 64 NE 5 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 63 61 NE 5 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 59 57 NE 5 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 56 54 NE 12 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 53 51 NE 12 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 52 50 NE 12 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 51 49 NE 10 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 51 49 NE 10 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 51 49 NE 10 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 52 50 NE 10 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 52 50 NE 10 2710 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 52 50 NE 10 2710 3170 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst