Detailed Predictions for: Mentone
Launch Altitude (f): 3170
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

19 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Tue 64 62 E 3 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 63 61 E 3 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 63 61 E 3 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 64 62 E 5 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 67 65 E 3 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 70 69 SE 2 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 72 71 S 5 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 74 74 S 5 4525 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 73 73 SW 5 3622 3170 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 73 72 W 7 2626 3170 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 72 71 SW 8 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 70 68 SW 8 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 68 66 W 6 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 65 63 SE 2 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 62 60 SE 3 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 59 57 SE 5 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 58 56 SE 6 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 56 54 SE 6 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 56 54 SE 7 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 55 53 SE 7 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 54 52 S 6 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 52 50 SE 8 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 52 50 S 9 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 51 49 S 7 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 51 49 S 8 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 50 48 S 7 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 48 46 S 6 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 47 45 SE 5 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 47 45 SE 5 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 47 45 SE 5 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 48 46 SE 5 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 49 47 S 6 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 50 48 S 6 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 51 49 S 6 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 50 48 S 6 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 51 49 S 5 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 50 48 S 3 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 49 47 S 5 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 48 46 S 5 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 48 46 S 6 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 47 45 S 5 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 47 45 SE 3 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 47 45 SE 3 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 47 45 SE 2 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 47 45 E 3 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 47 45 E 3 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 47 45 E 3 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 47 45 E 3 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 48 46 E 2 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 48 46 E 2 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 48 46 E 2 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 48 46 E 1 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 48 46 E 1 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 48 46 S 2 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 49 48 S 2 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 50 49 S 2 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 52 51 SW 3 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 53 52 SW 3 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 53 51 SW 3 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 54 52 S 3 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 53 51 S 3 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 53 51 S 3 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 52 50 S 3 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 51 49 S 3 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 50 48 S 2 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 49 47 SE 1 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 48 46 E 1 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 49 47 E 1 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 49 47 E 2 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 49 47 E 3 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 49 47 E 3 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 49 47 E 3 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 49 47 E 2 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 48 46 E 2 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 48 46 E 2 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 49 47 E 2 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 51 49 E 2 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 53 52 E 2 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 56 55 SW 3 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 57 57 SW 3 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 58 58 SW 3 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 58 57 SW 5 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 59 58 SW 5 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 59 57 SW 5 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 58 56 SW 3 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 57 55 SW 3 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 55 53 SW 3 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 53 51 W 2 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 52 50 W 2 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 51 49 W 2 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 51 49 N 2 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 51 49 N 2 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 51 49 N 2 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 52 50 NE 5 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 52 50 NE 5 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 51 49 NE 5 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 51 49 E 6 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 51 49 E 6 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 51 49 E 6 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 52 50 NE 6 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 54 52 NE 6 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 57 56 NE 6 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 59 59 S 2 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 61 61 S 2 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 63 63 S 2 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 64 64 E 5 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 64 63 E 5 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 64 62 E 5 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 63 61 NE 8 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 61 59 NE 8 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 59 57 NE 8 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 57 55 NE 9 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 57 55 NE 9 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 57 55 NE 9 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 57 55 NE 9 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 56 54 NE 9 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 56 54 NE 9 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 55 53 NE 8 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 55 53 NE 8 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 55 53 NE 8 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 54 52 NE 7 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 53 51 NE 7 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 53 51 NE 7 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 54 52 NE 6 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 56 54 NE 6 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 59 58 NE 6 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 62 62 SW 3 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 64 64 SW 3 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 65 66 SW 3 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 66 66 W 5 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 67 66 W 5 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 67 65 W 5 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 66 64 SW 3 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 65 63 SW 3 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 63 61 SW 3 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 61 59 NE 2 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 60 58 NE 2 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 59 57 NE 2 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 58 56 NE 2 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 58 56 NE 2 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 57 55 NE 2 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 57 55 NE 2 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 56 54 NE 2 2444 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 56 54 NE 2 2444 3170 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst