Detailed Predictions for: Mentone
Launch Altitude (f): 3170
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

16 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 69 67 NE 2 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 70 68 NE 2 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 73 71 NE 2 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 76 75 SW 1 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 79 80 SW 3 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 82 85 SW 5 4397 3275 105 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 85 90 SW 6 6364 4961 1791 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 87 93 SW 7 7415 6301 3131 Blue 10
1 PM Tue 90 96 SW 8 8118 7382 4212 Blue 13
2 PM Tue 92 98 W 8 8683 7848 4678 Blue 15
3 PM Tue 91 95 W 9 7884 7147 3977 Blue 12
4 PM Tue 91 94 W 9 7650 6882 3712 Blue 11
5 PM Tue 90 91 W 9 6941 5226 2056 Blue 8
6 PM Tue 87 86 W 10 4690 3796 626 Blue 3
7 PM Tue 83 81 W 9 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 79 77 W 6 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 76 74 NW 3 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 73 71 W 2 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 71 69 E 2 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 69 67 E 2 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 68 66 E 2 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 67 65 E 2 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 66 64 E 2 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 65 63 E 2 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 65 63 E 2 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 67 65 SE 1 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 69 67 S 1 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 72 71 SW 2 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 74 75 SW 3 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 77 80 SW 5 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 80 84 SW 6 4102 3170 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 83 89 SW 7 5753 4674 1504 Blue 6
1 PM Wed 86 92 SW 8 7178 5699 2529 Blue 9
2 PM Wed 87 92 SW 8 7178 5699 2529 Blue 9
3 PM Wed 88 92 SW 9 7178 5699 2529 Blue 9
4 PM Wed 86 88 SW 9 5245 4384 1214 Blue 5
5 PM Wed 84 84 W 9 4102 3170 0 Blue 1
6 PM Wed 80 79 W 8 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 77 75 W 8 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 74 72 W 6 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 70 68 W 5 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 68 66 SW 3 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 66 64 S 2 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 64 62 S 1 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 63 61 S 1 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 62 60 S 1 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 62 60 S 1 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 61 59 S 1 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 61 59 SE 1 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 63 61 S 1 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 65 63 SW 1 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 68 67 SW 2 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 71 72 SW 3 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 73 76 SW 5 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 76 80 SW 7 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 79 84 SW 7 4102 3170 0 Blue 1
1 PM Thu 82 88 W 7 5245 4384 1214 Blue 5
2 PM Thu 84 89 W 8 5753 4674 1504 Blue 6
3 PM Thu 83 87 W 8 4978 4091 921 Blue 4
4 PM Thu 83 85 W 9 4397 3275 105 Blue 2
5 PM Thu 81 81 W 9 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 78 77 W 8 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 74 72 W 8 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 70 68 W 6 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 67 65 W 5 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 65 63 W 3 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 63 61 W 2 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 62 60 SW 1 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 61 59 SW 1 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 60 58 S 1 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 59 57 S 1 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 58 56 SE 1 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 58 56 SE 1 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 60 58 SE 1 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 62 60 SE 1 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 65 64 SW 2 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 68 69 SW 2 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 72 74 SW 2 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 75 80 SW 6 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 78 84 SW 6 4102 3170 0 Blue 1
1 PM Fri 80 87 SW 6 4978 4091 921 Blue 4
2 PM Fri 82 88 W 7 5245 4384 1214 Blue 5
3 PM Fri 82 87 W 7 4978 4091 921 Blue 4
4 PM Fri 83 86 W 7 4690 3796 626 Blue 3
5 PM Fri 81 82 W 9 3283 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 78 77 W 9 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 74 72 W 9 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 71 69 W 6 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 67 65 W 6 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 65 63 W 6 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 63 61 W 1 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 62 60 W 1 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 61 59 W 1 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 60 58 SW 1 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 59 57 SW 1 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 58 56 SW 1 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 58 56 SW 1 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 59 57 SW 1 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 60 58 SW 1 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 63 62 W 2 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 66 67 W 2 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 69 72 W 2 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 73 77 W 6 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 76 82 W 6 3283 3170 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 78 84 W 6 4102 3170 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sat 80 85 W 8 4397 3275 105 Blue 2
3 PM Sat 80 84 W 8 4102 3170 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sat 81 83 W 8 3804 3170 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 80 80 W 8 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 78 77 W 8 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 75 73 W 8 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 72 70 W 6 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 69 67 W 6 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 67 65 W 6 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 65 63 W 1 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 64 62 W 1 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 63 61 W 1 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 63 61 S 1 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 62 60 S 1 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 61 59 S 1 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 61 59 S 1 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 63 61 S 1 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 66 64 S 1 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 69 68 W 1 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 73 74 W 1 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 77 80 W 1 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 80 84 W 6 4102 3170 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sun 83 88 W 6 5245 4384 1214 Blue 5
1 PM Sun 85 90 W 6 6364 4961 1791 Blue 7
2 PM Sun 87 92 W 7 7178 5699 2529 Blue 9
3 PM Sun 87 90 W 7 6364 4961 1791 Blue 7
4 PM Sun 87 89 W 7 5753 4674 1504 Blue 6
5 PM Sun 87 87 W 8 4978 4091 921 Blue 4
6 PM Sun 84 83 W 8 3804 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 80 78 W 8 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 77 75 W 6 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 74 72 W 6 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 73 71 W 6 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 71 69 NW 1 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 70 68 NW 1 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 69 67 NW 1 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 68 66 E 1 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 67 65 E 1 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 67 65 E 1 2874 3170 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst