Detailed Predictions for: Mentone
Launch Altitude (f): 3170
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

26 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 49 47 NE 2 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 50 48 NE 2 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 50 48 NE 2 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 52 50 E 1 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 55 54 W 0 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 57 57 W 1 2817 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 60 61 W 5 3037 3170 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Tue 62 63 W 5 3218 3170 0 Blue 3
1 PM Tue 65 66 W 6 4748 3217 47 Blue 6
2 PM Tue 66 67 W 7 5354 3623 453 Blue 7
3 PM Tue 66 66 W 7 4748 3217 47 Blue 6
4 PM Tue 65 64 W 8 3636 3170 0 Blue 4
5 PM Tue 65 63 W 8 3218 3170 0 Blue 3
6 PM Tue 62 60 W 8 2989 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 58 56 W 6 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 55 53 N 2 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 54 52 W 1 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 53 51 W 1 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 52 50 N 1 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 52 50 NE 1 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 51 49 NE 1 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 50 48 NE 1 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 50 48 NE 1 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 50 48 NE 1 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 49 47 NE 1 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 50 48 E 0 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 50 48 S 0 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 51 49 S 0 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 53 52 SW 1 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 55 54 SW 3 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 57 57 SW 5 2817 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 58 59 SW 6 2931 3170 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 60 61 W 7 3037 3170 0 Blue 1
2 PM Wed 61 61 W 8 3037 3170 0 Blue 1
3 PM Wed 61 61 W 9 3037 3170 0 Blue 1
4 PM Wed 60 59 W 9 2931 3170 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 60 58 W 10 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 57 55 W 9 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 54 52 W 8 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 52 50 W 7 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 51 49 W 6 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 50 48 W 5 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 50 48 W 3 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 49 47 W 2 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 48 46 NW 2 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 48 46 NW 1 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 48 46 N 1 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 48 46 E 1 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 47 45 E 1 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 48 46 SE 1 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 48 46 SW 1 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 49 47 W 2 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 52 51 W 3 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 54 54 W 5 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 56 58 W 6 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 58 61 W 7 3037 3170 0 Blue 1
1 PM Thu 60 63 W 8 3218 3170 0 Blue 3
2 PM Thu 61 64 W 9 3636 3170 0 Blue 4
3 PM Thu 61 63 W 10 3218 3170 0 Blue 3
4 PM Thu 60 60 W 10 2989 3170 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 60 59 W 10 2931 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 57 55 W 8 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 53 51 NW 6 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 51 49 NW 5 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 50 48 NW 6 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 48 46 N 9 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 48 46 N 12 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 48 46 N 13 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 47 45 N 12 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 46 44 N 12 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 46 44 N 12 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 46 44 N 13 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 45 43 N 13 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 46 44 N 13 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 46 44 N 13 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 48 46 N 8 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 52 51 N 8 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 55 56 N 8 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 58 60 S 5 2989 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 61 64 S 5 3636 3170 0 Blue 4
1 PM Fri 63 66 S 5 4748 3217 47 Blue 6
2 PM Fri 65 68 W 7 5738 4178 1008 Blue 8
3 PM Fri 65 67 W 7 5354 3623 453 Blue 7
4 PM Fri 65 65 W 7 4200 3170 0 Blue 5
5 PM Fri 64 63 W 7 3218 3170 0 Blue 3
6 PM Fri 60 58 W 7 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 57 55 W 7 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 54 52 N 6 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 53 51 N 6 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 52 50 N 6 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 51 49 N 10 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 51 49 N 10 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 50 48 N 10 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 49 47 N 17 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 50 48 N 17 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 49 47 N 17 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 48 46 NE 18 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 49 47 NE 18 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 49 47 NE 18 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 50 48 NE 18 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 54 53 NE 18 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 56 57 NE 18 2817 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 59 62 NE 17 3084 3170 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sat 62 66 NE 17 4748 3217 47 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 64 68 NE 17 5738 4178 1008 Blue 8
2 PM Sat 65 68 N 12 5738 4178 1008 Blue 8
3 PM Sat 65 67 N 12 5354 3623 453 Blue 7
4 PM Sat 65 65 N 12 4200 3170 0 Blue 5
5 PM Sat 64 63 N 10 3218 3170 0 Blue 3
6 PM Sat 60 58 N 10 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 57 55 N 10 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 54 52 NE 6 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 53 51 NE 6 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 52 50 NE 6 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 51 49 N 9 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 51 49 N 9 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 50 48 N 9 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 49 47 N 15 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 50 48 N 15 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 49 47 N 15 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 48 46 NE 16 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 50 48 NE 16 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 49 47 NE 16 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 51 49 NE 12 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 55 54 NE 12 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 58 59 NE 12 2931 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 61 64 NE 8 3636 3170 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 64 68 NE 8 5738 4178 1008 Blue 8
1 PM Sun 66 70 NE 8 6350 5306 2136 Blue 10
2 PM Sun 68 71 NE 7 6652 5710 2540 Blue 11
3 PM Sun 68 70 NE 7 6350 5306 2136 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 68 68 NE 7 5738 4178 1008 Blue 8
5 PM Sun 67 66 N 6 4748 3217 47 Blue 6
6 PM Sun 63 61 N 6 3037 3170 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 59 57 N 6 2817 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 57 55 NE 6 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 55 53 NE 6 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 54 52 NE 6 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 54 52 NE 3 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 53 51 NE 3 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 52 50 NE 3 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 51 49 NE 9 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 52 50 NE 9 2812 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 51 49 NE 9 2812 3170 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst