Detailed Predictions for: Mentone
Launch Altitude (f): 3170
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Thu 48 46 SE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 48 46 SE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 48 46 SE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 48 46 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 49 47 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 50 48 SE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 50 48 SE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 50 48 SE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 51 49 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 50 48 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 51 49 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 50 48 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 50 48 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 47 45 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 46 44 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 46 44 W 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 45 43 W 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 45 43 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 44 42 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 44 42 W 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 43 41 NW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 43 41 NW 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 44 42 W 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 43 41 W 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 43 41 SW 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 44 42 W 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 43 41 NW 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 43 41 N 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 46 44 NW 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 50 48 W 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 52 51 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 52 52 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 54 54 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 55 55 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 56 55 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 55 53 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 54 52 S 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 52 50 SE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 51 49 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 50 48 E 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 50 48 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 50 48 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 49 47 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 49 47 NE 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 48 46 NE 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 48 46 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 48 46 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 48 46 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 48 46 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 49 47 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 48 46 NE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 48 46 NE 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 52 50 NE 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 57 56 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 60 59 SE 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 61 61 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 64 64 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 65 65 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 65 64 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 64 63 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 62 60 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 57 55 S 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 54 52 S 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 54 52 NE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 53 51 NE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 52 50 NE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 51 49 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 50 48 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 49 47 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 48 46 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 49 47 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 49 47 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 48 46 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 49 47 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 48 46 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 48 46 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 52 50 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 56 54 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 59 58 W 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 60 59 W 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 62 61 W 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 64 63 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 63 62 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 62 60 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 61 59 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 56 54 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 53 51 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 52 50 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 52 50 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 51 49 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 50 48 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 49 47 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 48 46 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 47 45 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 48 46 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 48 46 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 47 45 N 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 48 46 N 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 47 45 N 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 47 45 NE 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 49 47 NE 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 52 50 NE 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 53 53 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 54 54 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 55 55 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 56 56 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 55 54 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 54 53 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 54 52 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 50 48 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 48 46 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 47 45 NE 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 46 44 NE 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 46 44 NE 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 45 43 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 44 42 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 43 41 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 43 41 NE 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 44 42 NE 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 44 42 NE 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 43 41 NE 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 44 42 NE 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 43 41 NE 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 43 41 NE 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 46 44 NE 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 51 50 NE 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 53 53 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 54 54 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 56 57 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 58 58 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 57 57 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 56 55 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 55 53 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 50 48 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 48 46 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 48 46 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 47 45 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 46 44 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 45 43 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 45 43 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 44 42 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 43 41 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 44 42 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 44 42 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst