Detailed Predictions for: Mentone
Launch Altitude (f): 3170
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

19 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sun 48 46 NE 2 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 48 46 NE 2 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 49 47 NE 2 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 51 49 NE 2 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 54 52 E 2 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 59 58 S 3 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 63 63 SW 3 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 66 66 SW 3 4598 3170 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sun 68 69 SW 3 5978 4585 1415 Blue 5
1 PM Sun 69 69 SW 3 5978 4585 1415 Blue 5
2 PM Sun 69 68 SW 3 5842 4229 1059 Blue 4
3 PM Sun 70 68 W 2 5842 4229 1059 Blue 4
4 PM Sun 68 66 W 2 4598 3170 0 Blue 2
5 PM Sun 64 62 SW 2 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 60 58 S 1 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 56 54 SE 1 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 53 51 E 1 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 52 50 E 1 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 51 49 E 1 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 51 49 NE 1 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 51 49 NE 1 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 51 49 NE 1 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 52 50 N 1 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 53 51 N 2 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 53 51 N 1 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 54 52 NE 1 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 54 52 NE 1 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 55 53 NE 1 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 58 56 SW 0 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 62 61 SW 1 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 65 64 SW 3 3379 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 68 68 SW 3 5842 4229 1059 Blue 4
12 Noon Mon 70 70 SW 3 6043 4832 1662 Blue 6
1 PM Mon 71 70 SW 5 6043 4832 1662 Blue 6
2 PM Mon 70 69 W 5 5978 4585 1415 Blue 5
3 PM Mon 70 68 W 5 5842 4229 1059 Blue 4
4 PM Mon 69 67 W 5 4848 3365 195 Blue 3
5 PM Mon 66 64 W 2 3379 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 63 61 NW 1 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 60 58 NW 1 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 58 56 SE 1 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 57 55 SE 3 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 57 55 SE 2 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 57 55 SW 0 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 58 56 NW 1 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 59 57 NE 1 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 60 58 N 1 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 60 58 N 2 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 61 59 N 2 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 60 58 N 2 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 61 59 NE 2 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 62 60 SE 1 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 65 63 S 0 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 69 68 SW 0 5842 4229 1059 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 72 71 SW 3 6108 5751 2581 Blue 7
11 AM Tue 75 75 SW 3 6467 6166 2996 Blue 11
12 Noon Tue 78 78 SW 3 7780 6451 3281 Blue 14
1 PM Tue 79 79 SW 5 8194 6590 3420 Blue 15
2 PM Tue 81 80 SW 5 8481 7085 3915 Blue 16
3 PM Tue 80 78 SW 3 7780 6451 3281 Blue 14
4 PM Tue 79 77 W 1 7169 6339 3169 Blue 13
5 PM Tue 75 73 NE 2 6259 6037 2867 Blue 9
6 PM Tue 69 67 E 5 4848 3365 195 Blue 3
7 PM Tue 64 62 NE 3 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 61 59 NE 3 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 60 58 NE 3 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 60 58 E 5 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 59 57 NE 5 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 59 57 NE 5 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 58 56 NE 5 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 58 56 NE 5 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 58 56 NE 6 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 58 56 NE 7 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 59 57 NE 7 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 61 59 NE 7 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 64 62 E 6 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 68 66 E 6 4598 3170 0 Blue 2
9 AM Wed 72 71 E 6 6108 5751 2581 Blue 7
10 AM Wed 76 76 SW 2 6607 6249 3079 Blue 12
11 AM Wed 79 80 SW 2 8481 7085 3915 Blue 16
12 Noon Wed 81 82 SW 2 9048 8146 4976 Blue 18
1 PM Wed 82 82 SW 3 9048 8146 4976 Blue 18
2 PM Wed 83 82 SW 3 9048 8146 4976 Blue 18
3 PM Wed 83 81 SW 3 8766 7688 4518 Blue 17
4 PM Wed 81 79 NW 1 8194 6590 3420 Blue 15
5 PM Wed 76 74 NW 1 6349 6101 2931 Blue 10
6 PM Wed 70 68 NW 1 5842 4229 1059 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 65 63 NE 3 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 63 61 NE 3 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 62 60 NE 3 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 61 59 NE 5 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 60 58 NE 5 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 59 57 NE 5 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 59 57 NE 5 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 60 58 NE 5 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 61 59 NE 5 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 63 61 NE 6 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 64 62 NE 6 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 65 63 NE 6 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 67 65 NE 5 4265 3170 0 Blue 1
8 AM Thu 70 68 NE 5 5842 4229 1059 Blue 4
9 AM Thu 74 73 NE 5 6259 6037 2867 Blue 9
10 AM Thu 78 78 SW 3 7780 6451 3281 Blue 14
11 AM Thu 80 81 SW 3 8766 7688 4518 Blue 17
12 Noon Thu 82 83 SW 3 9329 8430 5260 Blue 19
1 PM Thu 82 82 W 5 9048 8146 4976 Blue 18
2 PM Thu 83 82 W 5 9048 8146 4976 Blue 18
3 PM Thu 83 81 W 5 8766 7688 4518 Blue 17
4 PM Thu 80 78 W 2 7780 6451 3281 Blue 14
5 PM Thu 76 74 W 2 6349 6101 2931 Blue 10
6 PM Thu 70 68 W 2 5842 4229 1059 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 66 64 NE 5 3379 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 63 61 NE 5 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 63 61 NE 5 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 63 61 E 3 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 62 60 E 3 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 61 59 E 3 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 60 58 NE 5 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 60 58 NE 5 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 60 58 NE 5 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 61 59 NE 3 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 62 60 NE 3 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 63 61 NE 3 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 66 64 NE 5 3379 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 68 66 NE 5 4598 3170 0 Blue 2
9 AM Fri 71 70 NE 5 6043 4832 1662 Blue 6
10 AM Fri 74 74 SW 3 6349 6101 2931 Blue 10
11 AM Fri 76 76 SW 3 6607 6249 3079 Blue 12
12 Noon Fri 78 78 SW 3 7780 6451 3281 Blue 14
1 PM Fri 79 79 SW 5 8194 6590 3420 Blue 15
2 PM Fri 79 78 SW 5 7780 6451 3281 Blue 14
3 PM Fri 78 76 SW 5 6607 6249 3079 Blue 12
4 PM Fri 76 74 W 5 6349 6101 2931 Blue 10
5 PM Fri 72 70 W 5 6043 4832 1662 Blue 6
6 PM Fri 68 66 W 5 4598 3170 0 Blue 2
7 PM Fri 64 62 E 2 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 61 59 E 2 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 59 57 E 2 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 58 56 NE 2 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 57 55 NE 2 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 56 54 NE 2 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 56 54 NE 3 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 55 53 NE 3 2654 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 55 53 NE 3 2654 3170 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst