Detailed Predictions for: Ord
Launch Altitude (f): 4753
LZ Altitude (f): 1614
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

17 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 48 48 E 3 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 50 50 E 3 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 49 49 E 5 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 49 49 E 5 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 49 49 E 5 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 52 52 E 3 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 55 56 NE 6 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 57 59 NE 6 3051 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 60 62 NE 7 3965 4753 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 61 63 NE 7 4398 4753 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 61 62 NE 7 3965 4753 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 61 61 NE 7 3662 4753 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 59 59 N 7 3051 4753 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 58 58 NE 7 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 57 57 NE 6 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 56 56 E 7 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 55 55 E 7 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 54 54 E 6 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 54 54 E 5 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 53 53 E 5 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 52 52 SE 3 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 52 52 S 3 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 51 51 S 2 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 50 50 SW 2 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 50 50 SW 2 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 52 52 S 2 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 51 51 S 3 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 51 51 S 5 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 51 51 S 5 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 54 54 S 5 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 57 58 SW 5 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 60 62 SW 5 3965 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 63 65 SW 7 6125 4753 0 Blue 2
1 PM Thu 64 65 S 14 6125 4753 0 Blue 2
2 PM Thu 64 65 S 15 6125 4753 0 Blue 2
3 PM Thu 64 64 S 15 5041 4753 0 Blue 1
4 PM Thu 61 61 S 18 3662 4753 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 59 59 S 18 3051 4753 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 58 58 S 18 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 56 56 S 20 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 55 55 S 21 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 53 53 S 21 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 53 53 S 23 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 52 52 S 23 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 51 51 S 21 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 50 50 S 20 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 49 49 S 20 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 48 S 23 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 47 47 S 23 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 47 47 S 24 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 47 47 S 25 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 47 47 S 26 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 47 47 S 25 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 48 48 SW 28 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 48 49 S 28 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 48 49 S 28 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 49 50 S 26 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 49 50 SW 28 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 48 48 SW 25 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 48 48 SW 22 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 46 46 W 21 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 44 44 W 21 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 43 43 W 21 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 41 41 W 21 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 40 40 W 21 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 39 39 W 20 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 39 39 W 20 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 38 38 W 20 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 37 37 W 18 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 36 36 W 18 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 35 35 NW 12 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 34 34 NW 12 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 34 34 W 12 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 36 36 W 12 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 35 35 W 12 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 34 34 NW 9 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 35 35 NW 9 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 37 38 NW 9 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 39 40 NW 7 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 41 43 NW 7 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 43 45 NW 7 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 43 45 N 9 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 44 45 N 9 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 43 43 N 9 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 42 42 NW 12 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 41 41 NW 12 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 40 40 NW 12 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 39 39 NW 8 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 39 39 NW 8 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 38 38 NW 8 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 38 38 NW 5 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 37 37 NW 5 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 37 37 NW 5 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 36 36 NW 2 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 36 36 NW 2 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 35 35 NW 2 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 35 35 W 3 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 37 37 W 3 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 36 36 W 3 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 36 36 W 2 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 36 36 W 2 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 39 39 W 2 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 42 43 W 2 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 44 45 W 2 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 47 49 W 2 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 48 49 W 5 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 49 50 W 5 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 48 48 W 5 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 47 47 SW 8 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 46 46 SW 8 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 45 45 SW 8 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 44 44 SW 9 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 44 44 SW 9 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 43 43 SW 9 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 43 43 SW 8 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 42 42 SW 8 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 42 42 SW 8 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 42 42 W 8 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 41 41 W 8 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 40 40 W 8 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 40 40 W 6 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 42 42 W 6 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 41 41 W 6 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 41 41 W 8 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 41 41 W 8 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 44 44 W 8 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 47 48 W 9 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 49 50 W 9 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 52 53 W 9 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 53 54 W 16 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 54 55 W 16 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 53 53 W 16 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 51 51 W 13 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 50 50 W 13 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 50 50 W 13 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 48 48 W 13 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 48 48 W 13 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 47 47 W 13 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 47 47 W 10 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 46 46 W 10 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 45 45 W 10 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 45 45 W 10 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 44 44 W 10 2979 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 43 43 W 10 2979 4753 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst