Detailed Predictions for: Ord
Launch Altitude (f): 4753
LZ Altitude (f): 1614
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

26 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 47 47 SW 6 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 48 48 SW 6 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 47 47 SW 6 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 48 48 SW 5 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 49 50 SW 3 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 52 54 SW 5 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 55 58 SW 7 4005 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 58 61 SW 10 5651 4753 0 Blue 1
1 PM Tue 60 63 SW 12 6275 5139 386 Blue 3
2 PM Tue 60 63 S 16 6275 5139 386 Blue 3
3 PM Tue 61 63 S 18 6275 5139 386 Blue 3
4 PM Tue 61 62 S 18 5964 4753 0 Blue 2
5 PM Tue 60 60 S 18 5160 4753 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 58 58 S 18 4005 4753 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 57 57 S 17 3420 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 56 56 S 17 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 56 56 S 17 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 55 55 S 16 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 54 54 S 15 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 53 53 S 15 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 52 52 S 14 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 51 51 S 14 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 51 51 S 15 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 50 50 S 14 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 49 49 SW 13 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 50 50 S 14 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 49 49 S 15 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 49 49 S 16 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 50 50 S 16 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 52 53 SW 16 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 53 55 SW 17 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 54 57 SW 18 3420 4753 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 56 59 SW 21 4571 4753 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 55 58 S 22 4005 4753 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 56 58 S 23 4005 4753 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 56 57 S 23 3420 4753 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 55 56 S 23 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 53 53 S 23 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 52 52 S 23 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 52 52 S 22 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 51 51 SW 21 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 50 50 SW 21 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 49 49 SW 20 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 48 48 SW 17 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 46 46 SW 16 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 46 46 SW 14 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 46 46 SW 13 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 46 46 SW 12 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 44 44 SW 12 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 45 45 SW 10 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 44 44 W 10 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 45 45 W 10 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 46 47 W 12 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 49 51 W 12 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 51 55 W 13 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 53 58 W 14 4005 4753 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 55 61 W 16 5651 4753 0 Blue 1
2 PM Thu 55 60 W 17 5160 4753 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 56 60 W 18 5160 4753 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 56 58 W 18 4005 4753 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 54 55 W 20 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 52 52 W 18 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 50 50 W 18 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 50 50 W 17 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 49 49 W 17 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 48 48 W 16 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 46 46 W 15 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 45 45 W 14 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 43 43 W 14 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 42 42 W 13 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 42 42 W 13 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 41 41 W 12 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 39 39 W 12 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 40 40 W 12 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 39 39 W 12 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 40 40 NW 7 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 42 43 NW 7 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 47 50 NW 7 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 51 55 N 8 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 54 59 N 8 4571 4753 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 57 62 N 8 5964 4753 0 Blue 2
2 PM Fri 59 64 NW 10 6584 5636 883 Blue 4
3 PM Fri 59 63 NW 10 6275 5139 386 Blue 3
4 PM Fri 59 61 NW 10 5651 4753 0 Blue 1
5 PM Fri 57 58 NW 12 4005 4753 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 54 54 NW 12 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 52 52 NW 12 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 52 52 W 14 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 51 51 W 14 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 49 49 W 14 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 48 48 W 9 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 46 46 W 9 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 43 43 W 9 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 42 42 NW 8 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 42 42 NW 8 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 41 41 NW 8 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 39 39 N 8 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 40 40 N 8 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 39 39 N 8 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 40 40 NE 9 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 42 43 NE 9 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 46 49 NE 9 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 49 53 NE 15 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 52 57 NE 15 3420 4753 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 55 61 NE 15 5651 4753 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sat 56 61 N 17 5651 4753 0 Blue 1
3 PM Sat 56 60 N 17 5160 4753 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 56 58 N 17 4005 4753 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 55 56 N 16 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 53 53 N 16 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 51 51 N 16 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 51 51 NE 14 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 50 50 NE 14 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 50 50 NE 14 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 49 49 N 10 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 47 47 N 10 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 46 46 N 10 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 45 45 N 8 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 45 45 N 8 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 45 45 N 8 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 43 43 N 9 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 44 44 N 9 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 43 43 N 9 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 44 44 NE 13 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 46 47 NE 13 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 50 53 NE 13 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 54 59 NE 16 4571 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 56 62 NE 16 5964 4753 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sun 60 66 NE 16 7916 6254 1501 Blue 6
2 PM Sun 61 66 N 15 7916 6254 1501 Blue 6
3 PM Sun 61 65 N 15 6931 5946 1193 Blue 5
4 PM Sun 61 63 N 15 6275 5139 386 Blue 3
5 PM Sun 59 60 N 12 5160 4753 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 57 57 N 12 3420 4753 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 56 56 N 12 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 55 55 NE 8 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 55 55 NE 8 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 54 54 NE 8 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 52 52 NW 7 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 51 51 NW 7 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 49 49 NW 7 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 49 49 NW 5 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 49 49 NW 5 3268 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 48 48 NW 5 3268 4753 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst