Detailed Predictions for: Ord
Launch Altitude (f): 4753
LZ Altitude (f): 1614
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

17 SEP 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 52 52 W 6 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 52 52 SW 5 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 53 53 W 5 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 55 55 W 6 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 58 60 W 6 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 61 64 W 7 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 65 70 NW 8 4329 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 69 75 W 9 7465 4794 41 Blue 5
1 PM Tue 72 78 W 9 9511 7430 2677 Blue 8
2 PM Tue 75 81 W 10 10491 9392 4639 Blue 11
3 PM Tue 75 79 SW 12 10176 8595 3842 Blue 9
4 PM Tue 76 79 SW 10 10176 8595 3842 Blue 9
5 PM Tue 75 76 SW 12 8659 5160 407 Blue 6
6 PM Tue 73 73 S 12 5200 4753 0 Blue 3
7 PM Tue 71 71 S 12 4564 4753 0 Blue 1
8 PM Tue 69 69 S 12 4179 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 66 66 S 9 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 64 64 SW 6 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 62 62 W 6 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 60 60 W 3 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 58 58 W 3 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 56 56 SW 5 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 55 55 SW 5 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 54 54 SW 5 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 54 54 SW 5 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 55 55 SW 3 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 57 57 SW 5 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 59 59 SW 5 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 63 65 SW 6 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 67 70 SW 8 4329 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 70 75 SW 10 7465 4794 41 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 73 79 SW 13 10176 8595 3842 Blue 9
1 PM Wed 75 81 SW 14 10491 9392 4639 Blue 11
2 PM Wed 75 81 SW 16 10491 9392 4639 Blue 11
3 PM Wed 76 80 SW 17 10387 8837 4084 Blue 10
4 PM Wed 74 77 S 18 8864 6717 1964 Blue 7
5 PM Wed 72 73 S 18 5200 4753 0 Blue 3
6 PM Wed 69 69 S 20 4179 4753 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 66 66 S 20 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 63 63 S 20 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 62 62 S 18 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 61 61 S 16 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 61 61 SW 14 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 60 60 SW 13 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 60 60 SW 12 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 58 58 SW 12 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 57 57 SW 10 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 55 55 SW 10 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 54 54 SW 10 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 54 54 SW 9 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 55 55 SW 9 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 57 57 SW 10 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 59 61 SW 13 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 62 65 SW 15 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 65 70 SW 16 4329 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 68 74 SW 17 6780 4753 0 Blue 4
1 PM Thu 70 77 SW 17 8864 6717 1964 Blue 7
2 PM Thu 72 78 SW 16 9511 7430 2677 Blue 8
3 PM Thu 71 76 S 17 8659 5160 407 Blue 6
4 PM Thu 72 75 S 17 7465 4794 41 Blue 5
5 PM Thu 70 71 S 18 4564 4753 0 Blue 1
6 PM Thu 68 68 S 18 4048 4753 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 65 65 S 18 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 62 62 S 18 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 59 59 SW 16 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 57 57 SW 13 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 56 56 SW 10 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 55 55 W 8 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 55 55 W 7 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 54 54 NW 6 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 52 52 NW 5 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 51 51 N 3 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 50 50 NE 3 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 51 51 NE 3 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 53 53 NE 3 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 56 56 NE 6 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 59 61 NE 6 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 62 65 NE 6 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 65 70 NE 10 4329 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 68 74 NE 10 6780 4753 0 Blue 4
1 PM Fri 71 77 NE 10 8864 6717 1964 Blue 7
2 PM Fri 73 79 NE 9 10176 8595 3842 Blue 9
3 PM Fri 75 79 NE 9 10176 8595 3842 Blue 9
4 PM Fri 77 80 NE 9 10387 8837 4084 Blue 10
5 PM Fri 76 77 NE 8 8864 6717 1964 Blue 7
6 PM Fri 76 76 NE 8 8659 5160 407 Blue 6
7 PM Fri 74 74 NE 8 6780 4753 0 Blue 4
8 PM Fri 72 72 NE 8 4799 4753 0 Blue 2
9 PM Fri 69 69 NE 8 4179 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 68 68 NE 8 4048 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 66 66 NE 6 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 64 64 NE 6 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 63 63 NE 6 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 60 60 N 2 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 58 58 N 2 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 56 56 N 2 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 55 55 NE 2 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 55 55 NE 2 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 56 56 NE 2 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 58 58 NE 3 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 62 63 NE 3 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 65 68 NE 3 4048 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 69 73 NE 7 5200 4753 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Sat 72 77 NE 7 8864 6717 1964 Blue 7
1 PM Sat 76 81 NE 7 10491 9392 4639 Blue 11
2 PM Sat 78 83 NE 8 11490 10366 5613 Blue 13
3 PM Sat 80 84 NE 8 12465 10469 5716 Blue 14
4 PM Sat 81 83 NE 8 11490 10366 5613 Blue 13
5 PM Sat 80 81 E 8 10491 9392 4639 Blue 11
6 PM Sat 81 81 E 8 10491 9392 4639 Blue 11
7 PM Sat 80 80 E 8 10387 8837 4084 Blue 10
8 PM Sat 77 77 E 9 8864 6717 1964 Blue 7
9 PM Sat 73 73 E 9 5200 4753 0 Blue 3
10 PM Sat 69 69 E 9 4179 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 65 65 E 7 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 64 64 E 7 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 64 64 E 7 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 63 63 E 7 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 62 62 E 7 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 61 61 E 7 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 60 60 NE 3 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 59 59 NE 3 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 59 59 NE 3 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 61 61 NE 3 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 64 65 NE 3 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 68 70 NE 3 4329 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 73 78 NE 8 9511 7430 2677 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 76 82 NE 8 10652 10064 5311 Blue 12
1 PM Sun 79 85 NE 8 12774 10615 5862 Blue 15
2 PM Sun 81 86 NE 8 13079 11137 6384 Blue 16
3 PM Sun 82 86 NE 8 13079 11137 6384 Blue 16
4 PM Sun 82 84 NE 8 12465 10469 5716 Blue 14
5 PM Sun 82 83 SW 12 11490 10366 5613 Blue 13
6 PM Sun 79 79 SW 12 10176 8595 3842 Blue 9
7 PM Sun 75 75 SW 12 7465 4794 41 Blue 5
8 PM Sun 72 72 S 15 4799 4753 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sun 70 70 S 15 4329 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 68 68 S 15 4048 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 67 67 W 8 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 66 66 W 8 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 64 64 W 8 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 62 62 W 6 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 60 60 W 6 3963 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 59 59 W 6 3963 4753 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst