Detailed Predictions for: Ord
Launch Altitude (f): 4753
LZ Altitude (f): 1614
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

16 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 66 66 W 5 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 68 68 W 5 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 71 71 W 5 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 76 77 W 6 3996 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 81 84 SW 9 6825 5160 407 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 85 90 SW 10 8323 7584 2831 Blue 10
11 AM Tue 88 95 SW 15 11092 9226 4473 Blue 15
12 Noon Tue 90 98 S 16 11642 10746 5993 Blue 18
1 PM Tue 89 97 S 17 11399 10241 5488 Blue 17
2 PM Tue 90 98 S 20 11642 10746 5993 Blue 18
3 PM Tue 89 95 S 21 11092 9226 4473 Blue 15
4 PM Tue 88 93 S 21 9843 8292 3539 Blue 13
5 PM Tue 86 89 S 22 8086 7347 2594 Blue 9
6 PM Tue 83 84 S 22 6825 5160 407 Blue 4
7 PM Tue 79 79 S 21 4596 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 76 76 S 21 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 74 74 S 20 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 74 74 S 17 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 73 73 S 15 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 72 72 S 14 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 71 71 S 13 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 69 69 S 10 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 66 66 SW 9 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 65 65 S 9 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 65 65 S 9 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 69 69 S 9 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 74 74 S 9 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 78 79 S 10 4596 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 82 85 S 12 7130 5557 804 Blue 5
10 AM Wed 84 89 S 13 8086 7347 2594 Blue 9
11 AM Wed 86 92 S 15 9338 8057 3304 Blue 12
12 Noon Wed 87 94 S 16 10335 8527 3774 Blue 14
1 PM Wed 88 96 S 17 11224 9754 5001 Blue 16
2 PM Wed 87 94 S 20 10335 8527 3774 Blue 14
3 PM Wed 87 93 S 20 9843 8292 3539 Blue 13
4 PM Wed 85 89 S 21 8086 7347 2594 Blue 9
5 PM Wed 81 83 S 21 6217 4886 133 Blue 3
6 PM Wed 76 77 S 21 3996 4753 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 72 72 S 21 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 68 68 S 21 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 68 68 S 20 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 68 68 S 17 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 69 69 S 16 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 69 69 S 15 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 68 68 S 15 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 67 67 S 15 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 65 65 S 15 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 64 64 S 15 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 64 64 S 15 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 66 66 S 14 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 68 68 S 13 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 72 73 S 12 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 76 79 S 12 4596 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 80 85 S 12 7130 5557 804 Blue 5
11 AM Thu 83 89 S 13 8086 7347 2594 Blue 9
12 Noon Thu 84 92 S 15 9338 8057 3304 Blue 12
1 PM Thu 84 92 S 16 9338 8057 3304 Blue 12
2 PM Thu 84 91 S 18 8608 7821 3068 Blue 11
3 PM Thu 83 89 S 20 8086 7347 2594 Blue 9
4 PM Thu 81 85 S 21 7130 5557 804 Blue 5
5 PM Thu 79 81 S 21 5168 4753 0 Blue 1
6 PM Thu 76 77 S 22 3996 4753 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 74 74 S 23 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 72 72 S 23 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 70 70 S 22 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 69 69 S 20 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 67 67 S 17 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 66 66 S 16 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 65 65 S 15 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 64 64 S 15 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 63 63 S 15 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 62 62 S 15 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 62 62 S 15 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 64 64 S 15 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 68 68 S 15 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 71 72 S 12 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 75 78 S 12 4297 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 78 82 S 12 5585 4753 0 Blue 2
11 AM Fri 80 87 SW 14 7610 6776 2023 Blue 7
12 Noon Fri 82 90 SW 14 8323 7584 2831 Blue 10
1 PM Fri 84 92 SW 14 9338 8057 3304 Blue 12
2 PM Fri 83 91 S 18 8608 7821 3068 Blue 11
3 PM Fri 83 90 S 18 8323 7584 2831 Blue 10
4 PM Fri 82 87 S 18 7610 6776 2023 Blue 7
5 PM Fri 80 83 S 21 6217 4886 133 Blue 3
6 PM Fri 78 79 S 21 4596 4753 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 76 76 S 21 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 74 74 S 21 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 71 71 S 21 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 69 69 S 21 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 68 68 SW 15 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 67 67 SW 15 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 66 66 SW 15 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 65 65 SW 12 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 64 64 SW 12 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 62 62 SW 12 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 62 62 SW 8 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 63 63 SW 8 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 65 65 SW 8 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 68 69 SW 7 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 72 75 SW 7 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 76 81 SW 7 5168 4753 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 80 86 W 10 7371 6178 1425 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 82 89 W 10 8086 7347 2594 Blue 9
1 PM Sat 84 92 W 10 9338 8057 3304 Blue 12
2 PM Sat 83 90 SW 15 8323 7584 2831 Blue 10
3 PM Sat 83 89 SW 15 8086 7347 2594 Blue 9
4 PM Sat 82 86 SW 15 7371 6178 1425 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 80 82 S 18 5585 4753 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sat 79 80 S 18 4893 4753 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 78 78 S 18 4297 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 78 78 S 18 4297 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 78 78 S 18 4297 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 78 78 S 18 4297 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 77 77 S 14 3996 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 74 74 S 14 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 71 71 S 14 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 68 68 S 9 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 65 65 S 9 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 64 64 S 9 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 64 64 S 6 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 65 65 S 6 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 66 66 S 6 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 69 70 W 3 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 73 76 W 3 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 78 83 W 3 6217 4886 133 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 83 89 NE 5 8086 7347 2594 Blue 9
12 Noon Sun 86 93 NE 5 9843 8292 3539 Blue 13
1 PM Sun 88 95 NE 5 11092 9226 4473 Blue 15
2 PM Sun 88 95 S 15 11092 9226 4473 Blue 15
3 PM Sun 88 94 S 15 10335 8527 3774 Blue 14
4 PM Sun 87 91 S 15 8608 7821 3068 Blue 11
5 PM Sun 85 87 S 17 7610 6776 2023 Blue 7
6 PM Sun 83 84 S 17 6825 5160 407 Blue 4
7 PM Sun 81 81 S 17 5168 4753 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 81 81 S 18 5168 4753 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sun 81 81 S 18 5168 4753 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 80 80 S 18 4893 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 79 79 S 13 4596 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 77 77 S 13 3996 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 73 73 S 13 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 70 70 SW 6 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 69 69 SW 6 3704 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 68 68 SW 6 3704 4753 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst