Detailed Predictions for: Ord
Launch Altitude (f): 4753
LZ Altitude (f): 1614
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue -999 -999 - 2530 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue -999 -999 - 2530 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 67 67 S 15 3086 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 69 69 S 15 3636 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 72 74 SW 14 5019 4753 0 Blue 1
10 AM Tue 74 77 SW 15 5765 5013 260 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 76 81 SW 17 7334 6269 1516 Blue 8
12 Noon Tue 78 84 SW 17 7871 7316 2563 Blue 11
1 PM Tue 78 84 SW 17 7871 7316 2563 Blue 11
2 PM Tue 78 84 SW 20 7871 7316 2563 Blue 11
3 PM Tue 79 83 S 21 7692 7138 2385 Blue 10
4 PM Tue 78 81 S 21 7334 6269 1516 Blue 8
5 PM Tue 76 77 S 22 5765 5013 260 Blue 4
6 PM Tue 73 73 S 22 4719 4753 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 72 72 S 22 4450 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 73 73 S 20 4719 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 72 72 S 20 4450 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 70 70 S 20 3909 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 69 69 S 15 3636 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 68 68 S 15 3362 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 67 67 S 15 3086 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 66 66 S 14 2809 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 65 65 SW 14 2530 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 65 65 SW 12 2530 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 63 63 SW 8 2530 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 64 64 SW 7 2530 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 64 64 SW 7 2530 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 67 67 SW 7 3086 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 70 72 SW 6 4450 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 74 77 W 6 5765 5013 260 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 76 81 W 8 7334 6269 1516 Blue 8
12 Noon Wed 77 83 W 8 7692 7138 2385 Blue 10
1 PM Wed 78 84 W 8 7871 7316 2563 Blue 11
2 PM Wed 78 84 W 10 7871 7316 2563 Blue 11
3 PM Wed 79 83 SW 12 7692 7138 2385 Blue 10
4 PM Wed 78 81 SW 12 7334 6269 1516 Blue 8
5 PM Wed 76 77 SW 14 5765 5013 260 Blue 4
6 PM Wed 74 74 SW 13 5019 4753 0 Blue 1
7 PM Wed 72 72 SW 12 4450 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 73 73 SW 6 4719 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 72 72 W 6 4450 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 71 71 W 5 4180 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 69 69 W 2 3636 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 68 68 W 3 3362 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 68 68 W 3 3362 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 67 67 SW 2 3086 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 66 66 SW 2 2809 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 66 66 SW 2 2809 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 64 64 SW 2 2530 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 66 66 S 1 2809 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 66 66 S 2 2809 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 68 68 E 1 3362 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 72 74 N 2 5019 4753 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 76 79 NE 3 6829 5496 743 Blue 6
11 AM Thu 78 82 NE 8 7513 6786 2033 Blue 9
12 Noon Thu 80 85 NE 8 8203 7494 2741 Blue 12
1 PM Thu 81 87 NE 6 8870 7850 3097 Blue 14
2 PM Thu 81 86 NE 5 8538 7672 2919 Blue 13
3 PM Thu 82 86 E 5 8538 7672 2919 Blue 13
4 PM Thu 81 83 SE 3 7692 7138 2385 Blue 10
5 PM Thu 80 81 SW 9 7334 6269 1516 Blue 8
6 PM Thu 77 77 SW 12 5765 5013 260 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 76 76 S 13 5506 4753 0 Blue 3
8 PM Thu 77 77 S 20 5765 5013 260 Blue 4
9 PM Thu 76 76 S 20 5506 4753 0 Blue 3
10 PM Thu 74 74 S 18 5019 4753 0 Blue 1
11 PM Thu 73 73 S 14 4719 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 72 72 S 8 4450 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 71 71 S 7 4180 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 70 70 SW 6 3909 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 70 70 SW 7 3909 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 69 69 SW 3 3636 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 68 68 SW 5 3362 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 69 69 SW 5 3636 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 69 69 SW 5 3636 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 71 71 W 3 4180 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 73 74 W 3 5019 4753 0 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 76 79 W 3 6829 5496 743 Blue 6
11 AM Fri 77 81 NW 2 7334 6269 1516 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 79 85 NW 2 8203 7494 2741 Blue 12
1 PM Fri 79 85 NW 2 8203 7494 2741 Blue 12
2 PM Fri 80 85 SW 10 8203 7494 2741 Blue 12
3 PM Fri 80 84 SW 10 7871 7316 2563 Blue 11
4 PM Fri 79 81 SW 10 7334 6269 1516 Blue 8
5 PM Fri 78 79 S 16 6829 5496 743 Blue 6
6 PM Fri 76 76 S 16 5506 4753 0 Blue 3
7 PM Fri 75 75 S 16 5263 4753 0 Blue 2
8 PM Fri 75 75 S 15 5263 4753 0 Blue 2
9 PM Fri 75 75 S 15 5263 4753 0 Blue 2
10 PM Fri 74 74 S 15 5019 4753 0 Blue 1
11 PM Fri 72 72 SW 8 4450 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 72 72 SW 8 4450 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 71 71 SW 8 4180 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 70 70 W 3 3909 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 70 70 W 3 3909 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 69 69 W 3 3636 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 68 68 W 2 3362 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 69 69 W 2 3636 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 69 69 W 2 3636 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 71 71 NE 2 4180 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 74 75 NE 2 5263 4753 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 76 79 NE 2 6829 5496 743 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 78 82 N 1 7513 6786 2033 Blue 9
12 Noon Sat 80 86 N 1 8538 7672 2919 Blue 13
1 PM Sat 80 86 N 1 8538 7672 2919 Blue 13
2 PM Sat 81 86 SW 12 8538 7672 2919 Blue 13
3 PM Sat 81 85 SW 12 8203 7494 2741 Blue 12
4 PM Sat 80 82 SW 12 7513 6786 2033 Blue 9
5 PM Sat 79 80 SW 16 7155 5737 984 Blue 7
6 PM Sat 76 76 SW 16 5506 4753 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 75 75 SW 16 5263 4753 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 76 76 S 17 5506 4753 0 Blue 3
9 PM Sat 75 75 S 17 5263 4753 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sat 74 74 S 17 5019 4753 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sat 72 72 W 6 4450 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 71 71 W 6 4180 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 70 70 W 6 3909 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 70 70 W 5 3909 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 69 69 W 5 3636 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 68 68 W 5 3362 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 67 67 W 2 3086 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 68 68 W 2 3362 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 68 68 W 2 3362 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 70 70 NW 1 3909 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 73 74 NW 1 5019 4753 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 76 79 NW 1 6829 5496 743 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 78 83 NW 3 7692 7138 2385 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 80 86 NW 3 8538 7672 2919 Blue 13
1 PM Sun 80 86 NW 3 8538 7672 2919 Blue 13
2 PM Sun 81 87 SW 10 8870 7850 3097 Blue 14
3 PM Sun 81 85 SW 10 8203 7494 2741 Blue 12
4 PM Sun 80 83 SW 10 7692 7138 2385 Blue 10
5 PM Sun 79 80 SW 17 7155 5737 984 Blue 7
6 PM Sun 76 76 SW 17 5506 4753 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sun 75 75 SW 17 5263 4753 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sun 76 76 S 16 5506 4753 0 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 75 75 S 16 5263 4753 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 74 74 S 16 5019 4753 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sun 72 72 SW 6 4450 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 71 71 SW 6 4180 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 70 70 SW 6 3909 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 70 70 SW 7 3909 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 69 69 SW 7 3636 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 68 68 SW 7 3362 4753 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst