Detailed Predictions for: Ord
Launch Altitude (f): 4753
LZ Altitude (f): 1614
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

23 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 46 46 NW 2 3638 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 48 48 NW 2 3638 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 48 48 NW 2 3638 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 50 50 NW 2 3638 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 55 56 N 3 5324 4822 69 Blue 5
10 AM Sat 58 60 N 3 6879 5680 927 Blue 9
11 AM Sat 60 64 N 8 8407 7223 2470 Blue 13
12 Noon Sat 62 67 N 9 9530 8351 3598 Blue 16
1 PM Sat 64 69 N 9 10015 9244 4491 Blue 18
2 PM Sat 64 69 N 10 10015 9244 4491 Blue 18
3 PM Sat 63 67 N 10 9530 8351 3598 Blue 16
4 PM Sat 63 65 N 10 9040 7596 2843 Blue 14
5 PM Sat 60 61 N 12 7261 6074 1321 Blue 10
6 PM Sat 56 56 N 12 5324 4822 69 Blue 5
7 PM Sat 53 53 N 10 4825 4753 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 53 53 NE 7 4825 4753 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sat 53 53 NE 8 4825 4753 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sat 52 52 NE 8 4424 4753 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sat 51 51 NE 2 3859 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 51 51 NE 2 3859 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 51 51 NE 2 3859 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 50 50 NE 3 3638 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 50 50 NE 3 3638 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 49 49 NE 3 3638 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 47 47 E 5 3638 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 49 49 E 5 3638 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 49 49 E 5 3638 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 51 51 NE 3 3859 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 56 57 NE 5 5700 4942 189 Blue 6
10 AM Sun 60 63 NE 6 8010 6845 2092 Blue 12
11 AM Sun 62 66 NE 10 9285 7964 3211 Blue 15
12 Noon Sun 64 70 NE 10 10244 9487 4734 Blue 19
1 PM Sun 66 72 NE 10 10727 9970 5217 Blue 21
2 PM Sun 66 71 N 10 10472 9729 4976 Blue 20
3 PM Sun 65 69 N 10 10015 9244 4491 Blue 18
4 PM Sun 65 67 N 10 9530 8351 3598 Blue 16
5 PM Sun 62 63 N 10 8010 6845 2092 Blue 12
6 PM Sun 58 58 N 10 6099 5086 333 Blue 7
7 PM Sun 56 56 N 9 5324 4822 69 Blue 5
8 PM Sun 56 56 NE 7 5324 4822 69 Blue 5
9 PM Sun 56 56 NE 8 5324 4822 69 Blue 5
10 PM Sun 55 55 NE 9 5093 4753 0 Blue 4
11 PM Sun 54 54 E 13 4945 4753 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Mon 53 53 E 13 4825 4753 0 Blue 2
1 AM Mon 54 54 E 13 4945 4753 0 Blue 3
2 AM Mon 52 52 NE 12 4424 4753 0 Blue 1
3 AM Mon 52 52 NE 9 4424 4753 0 Blue 1
4 AM Mon 52 52 NE 8 4424 4753 0 Blue 1
5 AM Mon 50 50 NE 5 3638 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 52 52 NE 5 4424 4753 0 Blue 1
7 AM Mon 52 52 NE 5 4424 4753 0 Blue 1
8 AM Mon 55 55 NE 7 5093 4753 0 Blue 4
9 AM Mon 60 61 NE 7 7261 6074 1321 Blue 10
10 AM Mon 64 67 NE 7 9530 8351 3598 Blue 16
11 AM Mon 67 71 NE 16 10472 9729 4976 Blue 20
12 Noon Mon 69 74 NE 16 11275 10425 5672 Blue 23
1 PM Mon 70 76 NE 16 11815 10940 6187 Blue 25
2 PM Mon 71 76 NE 20 11815 10940 6187 Blue 25
3 PM Mon 70 74 NE 20 11275 10425 5672 Blue 23
4 PM Mon 70 72 NE 20 10727 9970 5217 Blue 21
5 PM Mon 67 68 NE 18 9774 9000 4247 Blue 17
6 PM Mon 63 63 NE 18 8010 6845 2092 Blue 12
7 PM Mon 60 60 NE 18 6879 5680 927 Blue 9
8 PM Mon 60 60 NE 17 6879 5680 927 Blue 9
9 PM Mon 60 60 NE 17 6879 5680 927 Blue 9
10 PM Mon 59 59 NE 17 6492 5315 562 Blue 8
11 PM Mon 58 58 NE 16 6099 5086 333 Blue 7
12 Midnight Tue 58 58 NE 16 6099 5086 333 Blue 7
1 AM Tue 58 58 NE 16 6099 5086 333 Blue 7
2 AM Tue 56 56 NE 10 5324 4822 69 Blue 5
3 AM Tue 56 56 NE 10 5324 4822 69 Blue 5
4 AM Tue 56 56 NE 10 5324 4822 69 Blue 5
5 AM Tue 54 54 NE 8 4945 4753 0 Blue 3
6 AM Tue 56 56 NE 8 5324 4822 69 Blue 5
7 AM Tue 56 56 NE 8 5324 4822 69 Blue 5
8 AM Tue 58 58 NE 13 6099 5086 333 Blue 7
9 AM Tue 64 65 NE 13 9040 7596 2843 Blue 14
10 AM Tue 68 71 NE 13 10472 9729 4976 Blue 20
11 AM Tue 70 74 NE 15 11275 10425 5672 Blue 23
12 Noon Tue 72 77 NE 15 12951 11211 6458 White 26
1 PM Tue 73 78 NE 15 13155 11479 6726 White 27
2 PM Tue 74 79 NE 15 13357 11746 6993 White 28
3 PM Tue 74 77 NE 15 12951 11211 6458 White 26
4 PM Tue 73 75 NE 15 11545 10668 5915 Blue 24
5 PM Tue 70 71 NE 15 10472 9729 4976 Blue 20
6 PM Tue 66 66 NE 15 9285 7964 3211 Blue 15
7 PM Tue 64 64 NE 15 8407 7223 2470 Blue 13
8 PM Tue 64 64 NE 13 8407 7223 2470 Blue 13
9 PM Tue 64 64 NE 13 8407 7223 2470 Blue 13
10 PM Tue 63 63 NE 13 8010 6845 2092 Blue 12
11 PM Tue 62 62 NE 16 7638 6462 1709 Blue 11
12 Midnight Wed 61 61 NE 16 7261 6074 1321 Blue 10
1 AM Wed 62 62 NE 16 7638 6462 1709 Blue 11
2 AM Wed 60 60 NE 14 6879 5680 927 Blue 9
3 AM Wed 60 60 NE 14 6879 5680 927 Blue 9
4 AM Wed 60 60 NE 14 6879 5680 927 Blue 9
5 AM Wed 58 58 NE 15 6099 5086 333 Blue 7
6 AM Wed 60 60 NE 15 6879 5680 927 Blue 9
7 AM Wed 60 60 NE 15 6879 5680 927 Blue 9
8 AM Wed 62 62 NE 13 7638 6462 1709 Blue 11
9 AM Wed 67 68 NE 13 9774 9000 4247 Blue 17
10 AM Wed 71 74 NE 13 11275 10425 5672 Blue 23
11 AM Wed 73 77 NE 16 12951 11211 6458 White 26
12 Noon Wed 75 80 NE 16 13561 13561 8808 White 29
1 PM Wed 76 82 NE 16 13966 13966 9213 White 31
2 PM Wed 77 82 NE 17 13966 13966 9213 White 31
3 PM Wed 77 81 NE 17 13763 13763 9010 White 30
4 PM Wed 76 78 NE 17 13155 11479 6726 White 27
5 PM Wed 73 74 NE 15 11275 10425 5672 Blue 23
6 PM Wed 68 68 NE 15 9774 9000 4247 Blue 17
7 PM Wed 66 66 NE 15 9285 7964 3211 Blue 15
8 PM Wed 65 65 NE 13 9040 7596 2843 Blue 14
9 PM Wed 66 66 NE 13 9285 7964 3211 Blue 15
10 PM Wed 64 64 NE 13 8407 7223 2470 Blue 13
11 PM Wed 63 63 NE 14 8010 6845 2092 Blue 12
12 Midnight Thu 63 63 NE 14 8010 6845 2092 Blue 12
1 AM Thu 63 63 NE 14 8010 6845 2092 Blue 12
2 AM Thu 62 62 NE 13 7638 6462 1709 Blue 11
3 AM Thu 62 62 NE 13 7638 6462 1709 Blue 11
4 AM Thu 61 61 NE 13 7261 6074 1321 Blue 10
5 AM Thu 59 59 NE 10 6492 5315 562 Blue 8
6 AM Thu 61 61 NE 10 7261 6074 1321 Blue 10
7 AM Thu 61 61 NE 10 7261 6074 1321 Blue 10
8 AM Thu 63 63 NE 12 8010 6845 2092 Blue 12
9 AM Thu 69 70 NE 12 10244 9487 4734 Blue 19
10 AM Thu 73 76 NE 12 11815 10940 6187 Blue 25
11 AM Thu 75 79 NE 13 13357 11746 6993 White 28
12 Noon Thu 77 82 NE 13 13966 13966 9213 White 31
1 PM Thu 78 83 NE 13 14167 14167 9414 White 32
2 PM Thu 79 84 NE 13 14369 14369 9616 White 33
3 PM Thu 79 83 NE 13 14167 14167 9414 White 32
4 PM Thu 78 80 NE 13 13561 13561 8808 White 29
5 PM Thu 75 76 NE 13 11815 10940 6187 Blue 25
6 PM Thu 70 70 NE 13 10244 9487 4734 Blue 19
7 PM Thu 68 68 NE 13 9774 9000 4247 Blue 17
8 PM Thu 67 67 NE 14 9530 8351 3598 Blue 16
9 PM Thu 68 68 NE 14 9774 9000 4247 Blue 17
10 PM Thu 66 66 NE 14 9285 7964 3211 Blue 15
11 PM Thu 65 65 NE 12 9040 7596 2843 Blue 14
12 Midnight Fri 65 65 NE 12 9040 7596 2843 Blue 14
1 AM Fri 65 65 NE 12 9040 7596 2843 Blue 14
2 AM Fri 64 64 NE 6 8407 7223 2470 Blue 13
3 AM Fri 64 64 NE 6 8407 7223 2470 Blue 13
4 AM Fri 63 63 NE 6 8010 6845 2092 Blue 12

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst