Detailed Predictions for: Ord
Launch Altitude (f): 4753
LZ Altitude (f): 1614
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

26 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 45 45 S 25 5577 5042 289 White 4
6 AM Sun 45 45 S 25 5577 5042 289 White 4
7 AM Sun 45 45 S 28 5577 5042 289 White 4
8 AM Sun 46 47 S 28 5665 5562 809 Blue 6
9 AM Sun 47 49 S 29 5726 5632 879 Blue 8
10 AM Sun 47 50 S 30 5756 5663 910 Blue 9
11 AM Sun 47 48 S 31 5695 5597 844 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 48 49 S 32 5726 5632 879 Blue 8
1 PM Sun 47 48 S 31 5695 5597 844 Blue 7
2 PM Sun 46 48 S 32 5695 5597 844 Blue 7
3 PM Sun 45 47 S 31 5665 5562 809 Blue 6
4 PM Sun 44 45 S 31 5577 5042 289 White 4
5 PM Sun 44 45 S 31 5577 5042 289 White 4
6 PM Sun 43 43 S 30 5136 4753 0 White 2
7 PM Sun 43 43 S 29 5136 4753 0 White 2
8 PM Sun 42 42 SW 26 4914 4753 0 White 1
9 PM Sun 41 41 SW 24 3281 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 40 40 SW 24 2477 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 39 39 SW 21 2477 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 39 39 SW 21 2477 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 39 39 SW 20 2477 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 39 39 SW 17 2477 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 39 39 SW 16 2477 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 39 39 SW 16 2477 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 40 40 SW 16 2477 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 40 40 SW 14 2477 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 41 41 SW 14 3281 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 43 44 SW 13 5357 4753 0 White 3
9 AM Mon 45 47 SW 13 5665 5562 809 Blue 6
10 AM Mon 47 50 SW 14 5756 5663 910 Blue 9
11 AM Mon 50 55 SW 15 6294 5859 1106 Blue 14
12 Noon Mon 52 58 SW 15 6801 6282 1529 Blue 17
1 PM Mon 54 60 SW 16 7349 6619 1866 Blue 19
2 PM Mon 55 61 SW 17 7866 6787 2034 Blue 20
3 PM Mon 55 60 SW 18 7349 6619 1866 Blue 19
4 PM Mon 56 59 S 20 6970 6450 1697 Blue 18
5 PM Mon 55 57 S 21 6632 6113 1360 Blue 16
6 PM Mon 53 53 S 21 5986 5755 1002 Blue 12
7 PM Mon 51 51 S 21 5787 5694 941 Blue 10
8 PM Mon 50 50 S 20 5756 5663 910 Blue 9
9 PM Mon 50 50 S 17 5756 5663 910 Blue 9
10 PM Mon 51 51 SW 15 5787 5694 941 Blue 10
11 PM Mon 52 52 SW 13 5866 5724 971 Blue 11
12 Midnight Tue 53 53 SW 12 5986 5755 1002 Blue 12
1 AM Tue 52 52 SW 10 5866 5724 971 Blue 11
2 AM Tue 51 51 SW 9 5787 5694 941 Blue 10
3 AM Tue 50 50 SW 8 5756 5663 910 Blue 9
4 AM Tue 49 49 W 7 5726 5632 879 Blue 8
5 AM Tue 48 48 W 6 5695 5597 844 Blue 7
6 AM Tue 47 47 W 5 5665 5562 809 Blue 6
7 AM Tue 47 47 W 3 5665 5562 809 Blue 6
8 AM Tue 48 49 W 3 5726 5632 879 Blue 8
9 AM Tue 51 54 NW 3 6124 5785 1032 Blue 13
10 AM Tue 55 59 N 5 6970 6450 1697 Blue 18
11 AM Tue 60 66 N 6 9879 8904 4151 Blue 25
12 Noon Tue 65 72 N 6 11463 11463 6710 White 30
1 PM Tue 69 76 N 7 12295 12295 7542 White 34
2 PM Tue 71 78 N 7 12705 12705 7952 White 36
3 PM Tue 71 76 NW 8 12295 12295 7542 White 34
4 PM Tue 71 74 SW 10 11879 11879 7126 White 32
5 PM Tue 69 71 SW 12 11253 11039 6286 White 29
6 PM Tue 67 67 SW 13 10410 9227 4474 White 26
7 PM Tue 65 65 SW 14 9515 8301 3548 Blue 24
8 PM Tue 63 63 SW 14 8956 7294 2541 Blue 22
9 PM Tue 62 62 SW 13 8370 6955 2202 Blue 21
10 PM Tue 60 60 W 12 7349 6619 1866 Blue 19
11 PM Tue 58 58 W 10 6801 6282 1529 Blue 17
12 Midnight Wed 58 58 W 9 6801 6282 1529 Blue 17
1 AM Wed 57 57 W 8 6632 6113 1360 Blue 16
2 AM Wed 56 56 W 7 6463 5979 1226 Blue 15
3 AM Wed 55 55 W 7 6294 5859 1106 Blue 14
4 AM Wed 54 54 NW 6 6124 5785 1032 Blue 13
5 AM Wed 54 54 NW 6 6124 5785 1032 Blue 13
6 AM Wed 55 55 NW 6 6294 5859 1106 Blue 14
7 AM Wed 56 56 NW 6 6463 5979 1226 Blue 15
8 AM Wed 59 60 NW 2 7349 6619 1866 Blue 19
9 AM Wed 63 66 NW 2 9879 8904 4151 Blue 25
10 AM Wed 67 72 NW 2 11463 11463 6710 White 30
11 AM Wed 71 77 N 5 12502 12502 7749 White 35
12 Noon Wed 74 81 N 5 13311 13311 8558 White 39
1 PM Wed 76 83 N 5 13714 13714 8961 White 41
2 PM Wed 76 82 SW 15 13513 13513 8760 White 40
3 PM Wed 75 80 SW 15 13109 13109 8356 White 38
4 PM Wed 74 77 SW 15 12502 12502 7749 White 35
5 PM Wed 71 73 S 25 11671 11671 6918 White 31
6 PM Wed 69 69 S 25 10832 9811 5058 White 28
7 PM Wed 67 67 S 25 10410 9227 4474 White 26
8 PM Wed 65 65 S 24 9515 8301 3548 Blue 24
9 PM Wed 64 64 S 24 9271 7804 3051 Blue 23
10 PM Wed 64 64 S 24 9271 7804 3051 Blue 23
11 PM Wed 63 63 SW 20 8956 7294 2541 Blue 22
12 Midnight Thu 62 62 SW 20 8370 6955 2202 Blue 21
1 AM Thu 61 61 SW 20 7866 6787 2034 Blue 20
2 AM Thu 60 60 SW 10 7349 6619 1866 Blue 19
3 AM Thu 59 59 SW 10 6970 6450 1697 Blue 18
4 AM Thu 58 58 SW 10 6801 6282 1529 Blue 17
5 AM Thu 57 57 W 9 6632 6113 1360 Blue 16
6 AM Thu 57 57 W 9 6632 6113 1360 Blue 16
7 AM Thu 58 58 W 9 6801 6282 1529 Blue 17
8 AM Thu 59 60 W 3 7349 6619 1866 Blue 19
9 AM Thu 62 65 W 3 9515 8301 3548 Blue 24
10 AM Thu 67 72 W 3 11463 11463 6710 White 30
11 AM Thu 71 77 NW 6 12502 12502 7749 White 35
12 Noon Thu 74 81 NW 6 13311 13311 8558 White 39
1 PM Thu 76 83 NW 6 13714 13714 8961 White 41
2 PM Thu 77 84 SW 10 13916 13916 9163 White 42
3 PM Thu 77 82 SW 10 13513 13513 8760 White 40
4 PM Thu 76 80 SW 10 13109 13109 8356 White 38
5 PM Thu 74 76 S 17 12295 12295 7542 White 34
6 PM Thu 71 71 S 17 11253 11039 6286 White 29
7 PM Thu 69 69 S 17 10832 9811 5058 White 28
8 PM Thu 67 67 S 18 10410 9227 4474 White 26
9 PM Thu 67 67 S 18 10410 9227 4474 White 26
10 PM Thu 67 67 S 18 10410 9227 4474 White 26
11 PM Thu 67 67 SW 12 10410 9227 4474 White 26
12 Midnight Fri 66 66 SW 12 9879 8904 4151 Blue 25
1 AM Fri 64 64 SW 12 9271 7804 3051 Blue 23
2 AM Fri 61 61 W 8 7866 6787 2034 Blue 20
3 AM Fri 59 59 W 8 6970 6450 1697 Blue 18
4 AM Fri 58 58 W 8 6801 6282 1529 Blue 17
5 AM Fri 57 57 W 6 6632 6113 1360 Blue 16
6 AM Fri 57 57 W 6 6632 6113 1360 Blue 16
7 AM Fri 58 58 W 6 6801 6282 1529 Blue 17
8 AM Fri 59 60 NW 3 7349 6619 1866 Blue 19
9 AM Fri 62 65 NW 3 9515 8301 3548 Blue 24
10 AM Fri 66 71 NW 3 11253 11039 6286 White 29
11 AM Fri 70 76 N 7 12295 12295 7542 White 34
12 Noon Fri 74 81 N 7 13311 13311 8558 White 39
1 PM Fri 76 83 N 7 13714 13714 8961 White 41
2 PM Fri 77 83 W 8 13714 13714 8961 White 41
3 PM Fri 76 81 W 8 13311 13311 8558 White 39
4 PM Fri 74 77 W 8 12502 12502 7749 White 35
5 PM Fri 71 73 S 20 11671 11671 6918 White 31
6 PM Fri 69 69 S 20 10832 9811 5058 White 28
7 PM Fri 68 68 S 20 10621 9468 4715 White 27
8 PM Fri 67 67 S 18 10410 9227 4474 White 26
9 PM Fri 66 66 S 18 9879 8904 4151 Blue 25
10 PM Fri 65 65 S 18 9515 8301 3548 Blue 24
11 PM Fri 64 64 W 13 9271 7804 3051 Blue 23
12 Midnight Sat 63 63 W 13 8956 7294 2541 Blue 22
1 AM Sat 61 61 W 13 7866 6787 2034 Blue 20
2 AM Sat 60 60 W 8 7349 6619 1866 Blue 19
3 AM Sat 58 58 W 8 6801 6282 1529 Blue 17
4 AM Sat 57 57 W 8 6632 6113 1360 Blue 16

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst