Detailed Predictions for: Ord
Launch Altitude (f): 4753
LZ Altitude (f): 1614
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

25 NOV 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 39 39 S 5 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 39 39 S 6 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 41 41 S 7 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 43 43 S 8 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 48 48 S 9 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 52 53 S 9 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 56 58 SW 9 5684 4753 0 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 58 60 SW 10 7134 4753 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Wed 57 59 SW 12 6911 4753 0 Blue 1
1 PM Wed 58 60 SW 14 7134 4753 0 Blue 2
2 PM Wed 57 58 SW 14 5684 4753 0 Blue 1
3 PM Wed 56 56 SW 14 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 55 55 SW 13 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 53 53 SW 14 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 52 52 SW 14 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 50 50 SW 14 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 49 49 SW 15 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 48 48 SW 15 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 47 47 SW 14 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 44 44 SW 10 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 42 42 SW 8 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 39 39 W 5 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 37 37 SW 3 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 35 35 S 2 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 34 34 S 2 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 33 33 SE 2 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 32 32 E 3 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 32 32 NE 5 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 34 34 NE 7 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 36 37 NE 8 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 39 41 N 10 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 42 44 N 14 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 45 48 N 17 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 46 48 N 20 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 46 47 N 21 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 47 47 NE 21 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 46 46 NE 21 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 44 44 NE 21 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 42 42 NE 20 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 40 40 NE 18 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 40 40 NE 18 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 39 39 NE 18 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 38 38 NE 18 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 38 38 NE 18 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 37 37 NE 18 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 36 36 NE 17 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 36 36 NE 17 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 35 35 NE 16 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 34 34 NE 14 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 32 32 NE 12 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 30 30 NE 8 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 30 30 NE 6 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 32 32 NE 6 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 35 36 NE 7 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 39 41 NE 9 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 42 44 NE 10 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 45 48 NE 13 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 48 50 NE 14 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 49 50 NE 14 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 49 49 NE 14 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 49 49 NE 13 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 47 47 NE 12 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 43 43 NE 10 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 39 39 NE 9 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 35 35 NE 9 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 33 33 E 8 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 33 33 E 8 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 36 36 E 9 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 39 39 E 9 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 42 42 E 10 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 42 42 E 10 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 40 40 E 9 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 39 39 E 9 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 38 38 E 9 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 38 38 E 9 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 39 39 E 7 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 41 41 E 7 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 44 45 E 7 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 47 49 NE 8 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 50 52 NE 8 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 53 55 NE 8 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 55 57 NE 9 4563 4753 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 56 57 NE 9 4563 4753 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 56 56 NE 9 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 56 56 NE 8 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 54 54 NE 8 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 50 50 NE 8 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 48 48 E 9 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 46 46 E 9 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 45 45 E 9 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 44 44 E 9 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 44 44 E 9 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 43 43 E 9 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 42 42 E 7 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 40 40 E 7 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 38 38 E 7 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 36 36 NE 12 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 35 35 NE 12 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 35 35 NE 12 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 36 36 NE 5 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 38 38 NE 5 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 41 42 NE 5 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 45 46 N 6 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 49 51 N 6 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 53 55 N 6 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 57 59 N 7 6911 4753 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sun 58 59 N 7 6911 4753 0 Blue 1
3 PM Sun 58 58 N 7 5684 4753 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sun 59 59 NE 8 6911 4753 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sun 58 58 NE 8 5684 4753 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sun 56 56 NE 8 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 54 54 E 8 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 52 52 E 8 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 49 49 E 8 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 46 46 E 7 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 44 44 E 7 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 42 42 E 7 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 40 40 E 7 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 40 40 E 7 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 39 39 E 7 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 39 39 NE 6 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 38 38 NE 6 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 38 38 NE 6 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 39 39 E 3 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 41 41 E 3 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 44 44 E 3 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 48 49 NE 5 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 52 53 NE 5 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 56 57 NE 5 4563 4753 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 58 59 E 5 6911 4753 0 Blue 1
2 PM Mon 58 59 E 5 6911 4753 0 Blue 1
3 PM Mon 59 59 E 5 6911 4753 0 Blue 1
4 PM Mon 58 58 S 7 5684 4753 0 Blue 1
5 PM Mon 57 57 S 7 4563 4753 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 56 56 S 7 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 54 54 S 8 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 53 53 S 8 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 52 52 S 8 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 50 50 S 9 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 49 49 S 9 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 47 47 S 9 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 45 45 S 12 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 43 43 S 12 3980 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 42 42 S 12 3980 4753 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst