Detailed Predictions for: Ord
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.403, -117.183, 4753
LZ Altitude (f): 1614
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

27 FEB 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 49 49 SW 8 18 3997 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 49 49 WSW 11 24 3997 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 49 49 WSW 14 30 3997 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 48 48 WSW 12 25 3792 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 48 48 WSW 10 21 3792 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 47 47 WSW 8 17 3587 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 45 45 W 7 15 3176 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 44 44 WNW 7 13 2970 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 43 44 NW 6 12 2970 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 45 47 NW 7 11 3587 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 46 49 NW 8 11 3997 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 48 52 NNW 10 11 4607 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 50 55 NW 9 11 5428 4753 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sat 51 55 NW 9 11 5428 4753 0 Blue 2
2 PM Sat 53 56 NW 9 10 5760 4810 57 Blue 3
3 PM Sat 53 55 NW 10 11 5428 4753 0 Blue 2
4 PM Sat 53 53 NW 10 12 4810 4753 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 54 54 NW 11 13 5094 4753 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sat 51 51 NW 11 13 4404 4753 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 49 49 NW 10 14 3997 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 47 47 NW 10 15 3587 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 46 46 SW 11 16 3382 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 45 45 SE 11 17 3176 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 44 44 NE 12 18 2970 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 43 43 NE 11 17 2763 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 41 41 ENE 9 15 2497 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 40 40 ENE 8 13 2497 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 39 39 NE 8 14 2497 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 37 37 NE 8 15 2497 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 36 36 NE 9 16 2497 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 36 36 NE 9 16 2497 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 35 35 NE 9 15 2497 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 35 36 NE 9 15 2497 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 38 40 NE 11 16 2497 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 41 44 NE 13 17 2970 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 43 47 NE 16 18 3587 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 45 50 NE 15 17 4201 4753 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 47 51 NE 14 16 4404 4753 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 49 52 NE 13 15 4607 4753 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 49 51 NE 12 14 4404 4753 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 50 50 NE 11 13 4201 4753 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 50 50 NE 10 12 4201 4753 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 48 48 NE 8 11 3792 4753 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 46 46 NE 6 10 3382 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 45 45 NE 5 8 3176 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 42 42 NE 4 7 2556 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 40 40 NE 3 5 2497 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 37 37 NE 2 3 2497 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 39 39 NE 2 3 2497 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 41 41 NE 2 4 2497 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 42 42 NE 2 4 2556 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 41 41 NE 2 5 2497 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 40 40 NE 2 5 2497 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 39 39 NE 2 5 2497 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 39 39 NNE 2 5 2497 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 39 39 NNE 2 4 2497 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 40 41 NNE 2 4 2497 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 44 46 NE 3 4 3382 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 47 50 NE 4 5 4201 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 51 55 ENE 4 5 5428 4753 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Mon 53 58 ENE 5 6 6413 5421 668 Blue 5
1 PM Mon 55 59 E 5 6 6736 5749 996 Blue 6
2 PM Mon 57 60 E 6 6 7056 6074 1321 Blue 7
3 PM Mon 58 60 ESE 5 6 7056 6074 1321 Blue 7
4 PM Mon 59 59 ESE 4 5 6736 5749 996 Blue 6
5 PM Mon 60 60 SE 4 5 7056 6074 1321 Blue 7
6 PM Mon 58 58 SE 4 6 6413 5421 668 Blue 5
7 PM Mon 56 56 SSE 4 6 5760 4810 57 Blue 3
8 PM Mon 54 54 SSE 4 7 5094 4753 0 Blue 1
9 PM Mon 52 52 SSE 4 8 4607 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 49 49 SSE 4 8 3997 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 46 46 SSE 4 8 3382 4753 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst