Detailed Predictions for: Ord
Launch Altitude (f): 4753
LZ Altitude (f): 1614
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

27 MAY 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 49 49 W 2 4767 4753 0 Blue 4
6 AM Sun 50 50 W 1 4863 4753 0 Blue 5
7 AM Sun 51 51 W 1 4973 4753 0 Blue 6
8 AM Sun 53 54 N 2 5348 4970 217 Blue 9
9 AM Sun 56 59 N 3 6068 5614 861 Blue 14
10 AM Sun 60 65 N 3 6507 6283 1530 Blue 20
11 AM Sun 63 69 N 7 6955 6575 1822 Blue 24
12 Noon Sun 66 73 N 6 8105 7217 2464 Blue 28
1 PM Sun 69 76 N 6 8842 8069 3316 Blue 31
2 PM Sun 71 78 NW 7 9331 8602 3849 Blue 33
3 PM Sun 72 77 NW 6 9071 8350 3597 Blue 32
4 PM Sun 71 75 W 5 8632 7787 3034 Blue 30
5 PM Sun 71 73 SW 9 8105 7217 2464 Blue 28
6 PM Sun 69 69 SW 10 6955 6575 1822 Blue 24
7 PM Sun 67 67 SW 9 6654 6429 1676 Blue 22
8 PM Sun 65 65 S 12 6507 6283 1530 Blue 20
9 PM Sun 64 64 SW 10 6434 6210 1457 Blue 19
10 PM Sun 63 63 SW 9 6361 6137 1384 Blue 18
11 PM Sun 62 62 SW 7 6288 6058 1305 Blue 17
12 Midnight Mon 61 61 W 6 6215 5910 1157 Blue 16
1 AM Mon 60 60 W 5 6142 5762 1009 Blue 15
2 AM Mon 59 59 W 3 6068 5614 861 Blue 14
3 AM Mon 58 58 SW 3 5919 5468 715 Blue 13
4 AM Mon 58 58 W 2 5919 5468 715 Blue 13
5 AM Mon 58 58 W 1 5919 5468 715 Blue 13
6 AM Mon 59 59 W 1 6068 5614 861 Blue 14
7 AM Mon 60 60 W 1 6142 5762 1009 Blue 15
8 AM Mon 62 63 NW 2 6361 6137 1384 Blue 18
9 AM Mon 66 69 NW 3 6955 6575 1822 Blue 24
10 AM Mon 69 74 N 3 8388 7503 2750 Blue 29
11 AM Mon 73 80 N 7 9846 9030 4277 Blue 35
12 Noon Mon 76 84 N 7 12698 10051 5298 Blue 39
1 PM Mon 79 87 N 7 13506 12661 7908 White 42
2 PM Mon 80 87 N 7 13506 12661 7908 White 42
3 PM Mon 80 86 NW 8 12957 11838 7085 Blue 41
4 PM Mon 81 85 W 9 12827 10858 6105 Blue 40
5 PM Mon 79 81 SW 10 10097 9287 4534 Blue 36
6 PM Mon 77 78 SW 12 9331 8602 3849 Blue 33
7 PM Mon 74 74 S 10 8388 7503 2750 Blue 29
8 PM Mon 72 72 S 13 7821 6929 2176 Blue 27
9 PM Mon 71 71 SW 12 7534 6721 1968 Blue 26
10 PM Mon 70 70 SW 9 7246 6648 1895 Blue 25
11 PM Mon 70 70 W 9 7246 6648 1895 Blue 25
12 Midnight Tue 69 69 W 8 6955 6575 1822 Blue 24
1 AM Tue 67 67 W 7 6654 6429 1676 Blue 22
2 AM Tue 66 66 W 5 6581 6356 1603 Blue 21
3 AM Tue 64 64 W 5 6434 6210 1457 Blue 19
4 AM Tue 63 63 W 3 6361 6137 1384 Blue 18
5 AM Tue 63 63 W 3 6361 6137 1384 Blue 18
6 AM Tue 64 64 W 2 6434 6210 1457 Blue 19
7 AM Tue 65 65 W 2 6507 6283 1530 Blue 20
8 AM Tue 67 68 NW 2 6727 6502 1749 Blue 23
9 AM Tue 71 74 NW 2 8388 7503 2750 Blue 29
10 AM Tue 75 80 NW 3 9846 9030 4277 Blue 35
11 AM Tue 79 86 N 5 12957 11838 7085 Blue 41
12 Noon Tue 82 90 N 3 14125 13049 8296 White 45
1 PM Tue 83 91 NW 3 14330 13853 9100 White 46
2 PM Tue 83 90 SW 8 14125 13049 8296 White 45
3 PM Tue 83 89 SW 13 13919 12919 8166 White 44
4 PM Tue 81 85 S 17 12827 10858 6105 Blue 40
5 PM Tue 79 81 S 20 10097 9287 4534 Blue 36
6 PM Tue 77 78 S 20 9331 8602 3849 Blue 33
7 PM Tue 76 76 S 20 8842 8069 3316 Blue 31
8 PM Tue 76 76 S 18 8842 8069 3316 Blue 31
9 PM Tue 75 75 SW 17 8632 7787 3034 Blue 30
10 PM Tue 74 74 SW 16 8388 7503 2750 Blue 29
11 PM Tue 72 72 SW 15 7821 6929 2176 Blue 27
12 Midnight Wed 71 71 SW 14 7534 6721 1968 Blue 26
1 AM Wed 69 69 W 12 6955 6575 1822 Blue 24
2 AM Wed 67 67 W 10 6654 6429 1676 Blue 22
3 AM Wed 65 65 W 9 6507 6283 1530 Blue 20
4 AM Wed 63 63 SW 8 6361 6137 1384 Blue 18
5 AM Wed 63 63 SW 7 6361 6137 1384 Blue 18
6 AM Wed 64 64 SW 7 6434 6210 1457 Blue 19
7 AM Wed 67 67 SW 7 6654 6429 1676 Blue 22
8 AM Wed 70 71 SW 10 7534 6721 1968 Blue 26
9 AM Wed 73 76 SW 10 8842 8069 3316 Blue 31
10 AM Wed 76 81 SW 10 10097 9287 4534 Blue 36
11 AM Wed 77 84 SW 14 12698 10051 5298 Blue 39
12 Noon Wed 77 85 SW 14 12827 10858 6105 Blue 40
1 PM Wed 76 84 SW 14 12698 10051 5298 Blue 39
2 PM Wed 75 82 SW 20 11092 9544 4791 Blue 37
3 PM Wed 73 79 SW 20 9589 8810 4057 Blue 34
4 PM Wed 71 75 SW 20 8632 7787 3034 Blue 30
5 PM Wed 69 71 S 25 7534 6721 1968 Blue 26
6 PM Wed 67 68 S 25 6727 6502 1749 Blue 23
7 PM Wed 65 65 S 25 6507 6283 1530 Blue 20
8 PM Wed 63 63 S 24 6361 6137 1384 Blue 18
9 PM Wed 63 63 S 24 6361 6137 1384 Blue 18
10 PM Wed 62 62 S 24 6288 6058 1305 Blue 17
11 PM Wed 62 62 SW 21 6288 6058 1305 Blue 17
12 Midnight Thu 61 61 SW 21 6215 5910 1157 Blue 16
1 AM Thu 59 59 SW 21 6068 5614 861 Blue 14
2 AM Thu 57 57 S 21 5770 5343 590 Blue 12
3 AM Thu 56 56 S 21 5621 5219 466 Blue 11
4 AM Thu 56 56 S 21 5621 5219 466 Blue 11
5 AM Thu 56 56 S 20 5621 5219 466 Blue 11
6 AM Thu 58 58 S 20 5919 5468 715 Blue 13
7 AM Thu 60 60 S 20 6142 5762 1009 Blue 15
8 AM Thu 63 64 S 18 6434 6210 1457 Blue 19
9 AM Thu 64 67 S 18 6654 6429 1676 Blue 22
10 AM Thu 64 68 S 18 6727 6502 1749 Blue 23
11 AM Thu 65 71 S 20 7534 6721 1968 Blue 26
12 Noon Thu 65 72 S 20 7821 6929 2176 Blue 27
1 PM Thu 65 72 S 20 7821 6929 2176 Blue 27
2 PM Thu 65 72 S 26 7821 6929 2176 Blue 27
3 PM Thu 64 69 S 26 6955 6575 1822 Blue 24
4 PM Thu 63 67 S 26 6654 6429 1676 Blue 22
5 PM Thu 61 63 S 26 6361 6137 1384 Blue 18
6 PM Thu 58 58 S 26 5919 5468 715 Blue 13
7 PM Thu 55 55 S 26 5473 5094 341 Blue 10
8 PM Thu 53 53 S 25 5223 4861 108 Blue 8
9 PM Thu 53 53 S 25 5223 4861 108 Blue 8
10 PM Thu 53 53 S 25 5223 4861 108 Blue 8
11 PM Thu 53 53 S 24 5223 4861 108 Blue 8
12 Midnight Fri 53 53 S 24 5223 4861 108 Blue 8
1 AM Fri 53 53 S 24 5223 4861 108 Blue 8
2 AM Fri 52 52 SW 21 5098 4765 12 Blue 7
3 AM Fri 51 51 SW 21 4973 4753 0 Blue 6
4 AM Fri 50 50 SW 21 4863 4753 0 Blue 5
5 AM Fri 49 49 SW 14 4767 4753 0 Blue 4
6 AM Fri 49 49 SW 14 4767 4753 0 Blue 4
7 AM Fri 50 50 SW 14 4863 4753 0 Blue 5
8 AM Fri 51 52 SW 10 5098 4765 12 Blue 7
9 AM Fri 54 57 SW 10 5770 5343 590 Blue 12
10 AM Fri 58 63 SW 10 6361 6137 1384 Blue 18
11 AM Fri 62 69 SW 10 6955 6575 1822 Blue 24
12 Noon Fri 64 72 SW 10 7821 6929 2176 Blue 27
1 PM Fri 66 74 SW 10 8388 7503 2750 Blue 29
2 PM Fri 67 74 SW 10 8388 7503 2750 Blue 29
3 PM Fri 68 74 SW 10 8388 7503 2750 Blue 29
4 PM Fri 68 72 SW 10 7821 6929 2176 Blue 27
5 PM Fri 68 70 SW 10 7246 6648 1895 Blue 25
6 PM Fri 68 69 SW 10 6955 6575 1822 Blue 24
7 PM Fri 67 67 SW 10 6654 6429 1676 Blue 22
8 PM Fri 65 65 W 8 6507 6283 1530 Blue 20
9 PM Fri 62 62 W 8 6288 6058 1305 Blue 17
10 PM Fri 59 59 W 8 6068 5614 861 Blue 14
11 PM Fri 56 56 NW 6 5621 5219 466 Blue 11
12 Midnight Sat 55 55 NW 6 5473 5094 341 Blue 10
1 AM Sat 55 55 NW 6 5473 5094 341 Blue 10
2 AM Sat 55 55 W 3 5473 5094 341 Blue 10
3 AM Sat 55 55 W 3 5473 5094 341 Blue 10
4 AM Sat 55 55 W 3 5473 5094 341 Blue 10

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst