Detailed Predictions for: Ord
Launch Altitude (f): 4753
LZ Altitude (f): 1614
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

17 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 55 55 SW 18 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 56 56 SW 18 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 56 56 SW 17 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 56 56 SW 16 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 57 57 SW 14 2722 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 59 59 SW 13 3851 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 60 61 W 13 5002 4753 0 Blue 1
11 AM Fri 61 63 W 13 5962 4753 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Fri 62 64 W 13 6517 4997 244 Blue 4
1 PM Fri 61 63 W 13 5962 4753 0 Blue 3
2 PM Fri 60 61 SW 14 5002 4753 0 Blue 1
3 PM Fri 58 58 SW 14 3296 4753 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 54 54 SW 13 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 52 52 SW 10 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 52 52 SW 10 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 50 50 SW 2 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 49 49 W 3 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 48 48 W 2 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 46 46 NE 3 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 46 46 NE 5 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 45 45 NE 5 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 44 44 NE 5 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 44 44 NE 5 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 43 43 NE 5 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 41 41 NE 5 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 44 44 NE 6 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 43 43 E 5 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 43 43 E 6 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 47 47 E 6 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 51 52 NE 7 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 55 57 NE 8 2722 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 57 60 NE 8 4391 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 59 62 NE 9 5533 4753 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sat 58 60 NE 9 4391 4753 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 58 59 NE 9 3851 4753 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 56 56 NE 8 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 52 52 NE 8 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 51 51 NE 7 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 51 51 NE 7 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 49 49 NE 7 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 49 49 NE 6 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 48 48 E 6 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 46 46 NE 3 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 46 46 NE 3 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 45 45 NE 2 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 44 44 N 1 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 44 44 N 1 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 44 44 NE 1 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 42 42 NE 1 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 45 45 N 0 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 44 44 N 1 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 44 44 N 1 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 48 48 NE 2 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 53 54 NE 3 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 57 59 N 3 3851 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 60 62 N 3 5533 4753 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sun 62 64 N 5 6517 4997 244 Blue 4
1 PM Sun 61 63 N 5 5962 4753 0 Blue 3
2 PM Sun 61 62 NW 5 5533 4753 0 Blue 2
3 PM Sun 59 59 NW 5 3851 4753 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 57 57 NW 3 2722 4753 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 56 56 NW 2 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 56 56 W 1 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 54 54 SW 2 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 54 54 SW 3 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 54 54 W 3 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 52 52 W 5 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 52 52 W 5 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 52 52 W 3 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 51 51 SW 3 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 51 51 SW 3 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 50 50 W 3 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 49 49 W 5 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 52 52 W 5 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 51 51 W 5 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 51 51 W 5 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 54 54 W 5 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 58 59 W 5 3851 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 62 63 W 5 5962 4753 0 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 64 66 W 5 7175 5939 1186 Blue 6
12 Noon Mon 66 68 W 5 7963 6763 2010 Blue 8
1 PM Mon 66 68 NW 7 7963 6763 2010 Blue 8
2 PM Mon 65 66 NW 7 7175 5939 1186 Blue 6
3 PM Mon 64 64 NW 7 6517 4997 244 Blue 4
4 PM Mon 61 61 NW 6 5002 4753 0 Blue 1
5 PM Mon 60 60 NW 6 4391 4753 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 60 60 NW 6 4391 4753 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 59 59 N 2 3851 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 59 59 N 2 3851 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 58 58 N 2 3296 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 57 57 N 2 2722 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 57 57 N 2 2722 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 56 56 N 2 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 56 56 NE 2 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 56 56 NE 2 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 55 55 NE 2 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 54 54 E 3 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 56 56 E 3 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 56 56 E 3 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 56 56 NE 3 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 59 59 NE 3 3851 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 62 63 NE 3 5962 4753 0 Blue 3
10 AM Tue 65 67 NE 5 7572 6497 1744 Blue 7
11 AM Tue 68 70 NE 5 8520 7529 2776 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 69 71 NE 5 8690 7916 3163 Blue 11
1 PM Tue 69 71 N 5 8690 7916 3163 Blue 11
2 PM Tue 68 69 N 5 8367 7137 2384 Blue 9
3 PM Tue 66 66 N 5 7175 5939 1186 Blue 6
4 PM Tue 64 64 N 5 6517 4997 244 Blue 4
5 PM Tue 62 62 N 5 5533 4753 0 Blue 2
6 PM Tue 62 62 N 5 5533 4753 0 Blue 2
7 PM Tue 61 61 N 3 5002 4753 0 Blue 1
8 PM Tue 60 60 N 3 4391 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 60 60 N 3 4391 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 59 59 W 1 3851 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 59 59 W 1 3851 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 58 58 W 1 3296 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 57 57 W 2 2722 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 57 57 W 2 2722 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 56 56 W 2 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 55 55 NW 2 2625 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 58 58 NW 2 3296 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 57 57 NW 2 2722 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 57 57 N 1 2722 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 60 60 N 1 4391 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 64 65 N 1 6785 5506 753 Blue 5
10 AM Wed 68 70 NE 5 8520 7529 2776 Blue 10
11 AM Wed 70 72 NE 5 9715 8313 3560 Blue 12
12 Noon Wed 72 75 NE 5 11205 9645 4892 Blue 15
1 PM Wed 72 74 N 7 10801 8642 3889 Blue 14
2 PM Wed 71 72 N 7 9715 8313 3560 Blue 12
3 PM Wed 69 69 N 7 8367 7137 2384 Blue 9
4 PM Wed 65 65 N 7 6785 5506 753 Blue 5
5 PM Wed 64 64 N 7 6517 4997 244 Blue 4
6 PM Wed 64 64 N 7 6517 4997 244 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 62 62 NE 5 5533 4753 0 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 62 62 NE 5 5533 4753 0 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 61 61 NE 5 5002 4753 0 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 60 60 NE 3 4391 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 60 60 NE 3 4391 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 58 58 NE 3 3296 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 57 57 NE 3 2722 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 57 57 NE 3 2722 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 56 56 NE 3 2625 4753 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst