Detailed Predictions for: Ord
Launch Altitude (f): 4753
LZ Altitude (f): 1614
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

22 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 72 72 SW 3 4114 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 72 72 SW 3 4114 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 73 73 SW 3 4214 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 75 76 W 3 5153 4753 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sun 77 80 W 3 5899 5381 628 Blue 5
10 AM Sun 80 84 NW 3 7976 6267 1514 Blue 9
11 AM Sun 82 88 NW 6 9415 8507 3754 Blue 13
12 Noon Sun 85 92 NW 5 10659 9733 4980 Blue 17
1 PM Sun 87 94 NW 5 12344 10338 5585 White 19
2 PM Sun 88 95 W 8 12554 10605 5852 White 20
3 PM Sun 87 92 SW 8 10659 9733 4980 Blue 17
4 PM Sun 88 92 SW 8 10659 9733 4980 Blue 17
5 PM Sun 86 88 S 13 9415 8507 3754 Blue 13
6 PM Sun 85 86 S 14 8948 7225 2472 Blue 11
7 PM Sun 84 84 S 14 7976 6267 1514 Blue 9
8 PM Sun 82 82 S 12 6964 5589 836 Blue 7
9 PM Sun 81 81 SW 10 6294 5485 732 Blue 6
10 PM Sun 80 80 SW 9 5899 5381 628 Blue 5
11 PM Sun 80 80 W 7 5899 5381 628 Blue 5
12 Midnight Mon 79 79 W 6 5600 5140 387 Blue 4
1 AM Mon 78 78 W 6 5489 4753 0 Blue 3
2 AM Mon 77 77 W 5 5384 4753 0 Blue 2
3 AM Mon 76 76 W 3 5153 4753 0 Blue 1
4 AM Mon 75 75 W 3 4468 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 75 75 SW 3 4468 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 75 75 SW 2 4468 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 76 76 SW 2 5153 4753 0 Blue 1
8 AM Mon 78 79 W 2 5600 5140 387 Blue 4
9 AM Mon 81 83 W 2 7252 5884 1131 Blue 8
10 AM Mon 84 88 NW 3 9415 8507 3754 Blue 13
11 AM Mon 88 94 N 6 12344 10338 5585 White 19
12 Noon Mon 91 98 N 6 13182 13182 8429 White 23
1 PM Mon 93 101 N 6 13806 13806 9053 White 26
2 PM Mon 94 100 SW 2 13598 13598 8845 White 25
3 PM Mon 94 99 S 5 13389 13389 8636 White 24
4 PM Mon 95 98 S 7 13182 13182 8429 White 23
5 PM Mon 94 96 SW 10 12763 11317 6564 White 21
6 PM Mon 92 93 S 12 11640 10068 5315 Blue 18
7 PM Mon 90 90 S 12 10119 9211 4458 Blue 15
8 PM Mon 88 88 SW 10 9415 8507 3754 Blue 13
9 PM Mon 85 85 SW 9 8561 6939 2186 Blue 10
10 PM Mon 83 83 W 7 7252 5884 1131 Blue 8
11 PM Mon 81 81 W 6 6294 5485 732 Blue 6
12 Midnight Tue 80 80 W 6 5899 5381 628 Blue 5
1 AM Tue 80 80 W 6 5899 5381 628 Blue 5
2 AM Tue 79 79 W 3 5600 5140 387 Blue 4
3 AM Tue 78 78 W 3 5489 4753 0 Blue 3
4 AM Tue 77 77 W 3 5384 4753 0 Blue 2
5 AM Tue 77 77 W 2 5384 4753 0 Blue 2
6 AM Tue 77 77 W 3 5384 4753 0 Blue 2
7 AM Tue 78 78 W 2 5489 4753 0 Blue 3
8 AM Tue 80 81 W 2 6294 5485 732 Blue 6
9 AM Tue 83 86 NW 2 8948 7225 2472 Blue 11
10 AM Tue 87 91 NW 3 10391 9386 4633 Blue 16
11 AM Tue 91 96 N 6 12763 11317 6564 White 21
12 Noon Tue 94 101 N 5 13806 13806 9053 White 26
1 PM Tue 96 103 NW 5 14216 14216 9463 White 28
2 PM Tue 98 104 SW 12 14417 14417 9664 White 29
3 PM Tue 97 102 SW 12 14013 14013 9260 White 27
4 PM Tue 97 101 SW 12 13806 13806 9053 White 26
5 PM Tue 96 98 S 17 13182 13182 8429 White 23
6 PM Tue 94 95 S 17 12554 10605 5852 White 20
7 PM Tue 93 93 S 17 11640 10068 5315 Blue 18
8 PM Tue 91 91 S 16 10391 9386 4633 Blue 16
9 PM Tue 88 88 SW 14 9415 8507 3754 Blue 13
10 PM Tue 86 86 W 10 8948 7225 2472 Blue 11
11 PM Tue 84 84 W 8 7976 6267 1514 Blue 9
12 Midnight Wed 82 82 W 7 6964 5589 836 Blue 7
1 AM Wed 81 81 W 6 6294 5485 732 Blue 6
2 AM Wed 80 80 W 6 5899 5381 628 Blue 5
3 AM Wed 79 79 W 6 5600 5140 387 Blue 4
4 AM Wed 78 78 W 5 5489 4753 0 Blue 3
5 AM Wed 78 78 W 5 5489 4753 0 Blue 3
6 AM Wed 79 79 W 5 5600 5140 387 Blue 4
7 AM Wed 80 80 W 5 5899 5381 628 Blue 5
8 AM Wed 82 83 NW 2 7252 5884 1131 Blue 8
9 AM Wed 86 88 NW 2 9415 8507 3754 Blue 13
10 AM Wed 90 94 NW 2 12344 10338 5585 White 19
11 AM Wed 93 99 NW 6 13389 13389 8636 White 24
12 Noon Wed 96 103 NW 6 14216 14216 9463 White 28
1 PM Wed 98 105 NW 6 14619 14619 9866 White 30
2 PM Wed 100 107 SW 13 15022 15022 10269 White 32
3 PM Wed 100 105 SW 13 14619 14619 9866 White 30
4 PM Wed 100 104 SW 13 14417 14417 9664 White 29
5 PM Wed 98 100 SW 16 13598 13598 8845 White 25
6 PM Wed 97 98 SW 16 13182 13182 8429 White 23
7 PM Wed 94 94 SW 16 12344 10338 5585 White 19
8 PM Wed 92 92 S 18 10659 9733 4980 Blue 17
9 PM Wed 89 89 S 18 9819 8891 4138 Blue 14
10 PM Wed 86 86 S 18 8948 7225 2472 Blue 11
11 PM Wed 84 84 W 8 7976 6267 1514 Blue 9
12 Midnight Thu 82 82 W 8 6964 5589 836 Blue 7
1 AM Thu 81 81 W 8 6294 5485 732 Blue 6
2 AM Thu 80 80 W 7 5899 5381 628 Blue 5
3 AM Thu 79 79 W 7 5600 5140 387 Blue 4
4 AM Thu 78 78 W 7 5489 4753 0 Blue 3
5 AM Thu 78 78 W 7 5489 4753 0 Blue 3
6 AM Thu 78 78 W 7 5489 4753 0 Blue 3
7 AM Thu 79 79 W 7 5600 5140 387 Blue 4
8 AM Thu 82 83 W 3 7252 5884 1131 Blue 8
9 AM Thu 85 87 W 3 9239 7893 3140 Blue 12
10 AM Thu 89 93 W 3 11640 10068 5315 Blue 18
11 AM Thu 92 98 W 7 13182 13182 8429 White 23
12 Noon Thu 94 101 W 7 13806 13806 9053 White 26
1 PM Thu 95 102 W 7 14013 14013 9260 White 27
2 PM Thu 95 102 SW 15 14013 14013 9260 White 27
3 PM Thu 95 101 SW 15 13806 13806 9053 White 26
4 PM Thu 95 99 SW 15 13389 13389 8636 White 24
5 PM Thu 94 96 S 20 12763 11317 6564 White 21
6 PM Thu 91 92 S 20 10659 9733 4980 Blue 17
7 PM Thu 88 88 S 20 9415 8507 3754 Blue 13
8 PM Thu 86 86 S 21 8948 7225 2472 Blue 11
9 PM Thu 84 84 S 21 7976 6267 1514 Blue 9
10 PM Thu 84 84 S 21 7976 6267 1514 Blue 9
11 PM Thu 83 83 SW 13 7252 5884 1131 Blue 8
12 Midnight Fri 82 82 SW 13 6964 5589 836 Blue 7
1 AM Fri 80 80 SW 13 5899 5381 628 Blue 5
2 AM Fri 79 79 W 8 5600 5140 387 Blue 4
3 AM Fri 77 77 W 8 5384 4753 0 Blue 2
4 AM Fri 76 76 W 8 5153 4753 0 Blue 1
5 AM Fri 75 75 W 6 4468 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 76 76 W 6 5153 4753 0 Blue 1
7 AM Fri 77 77 W 6 5384 4753 0 Blue 2
8 AM Fri 80 81 W 3 6294 5485 732 Blue 6
9 AM Fri 84 86 W 3 8948 7225 2472 Blue 11
10 AM Fri 87 91 W 3 10391 9386 4633 Blue 16
11 AM Fri 90 95 SW 9 12554 10605 5852 White 20
12 Noon Fri 92 98 SW 9 13182 13182 8429 White 23
1 PM Fri 92 99 SW 9 13389 13389 8636 White 24
2 PM Fri 92 98 S 22 13182 13182 8429 White 23
3 PM Fri 91 96 S 22 12763 11317 6564 White 21
4 PM Fri 90 94 S 22 12344 10338 5585 White 19
5 PM Fri 88 90 S 21 10119 9211 4458 Blue 15
6 PM Fri 87 88 S 21 9415 8507 3754 Blue 13
7 PM Fri 86 86 S 21 8948 7225 2472 Blue 11
8 PM Fri 85 85 S 23 8561 6939 2186 Blue 10
9 PM Fri 84 84 S 23 7976 6267 1514 Blue 9
10 PM Fri 84 84 S 23 7976 6267 1514 Blue 9
11 PM Fri 83 83 SW 14 7252 5884 1131 Blue 8
12 Midnight Sat 82 82 SW 14 6964 5589 836 Blue 7
1 AM Sat 80 80 SW 14 5899 5381 628 Blue 5
2 AM Sat 78 78 SW 10 5489 4753 0 Blue 3
3 AM Sat 76 76 SW 10 5153 4753 0 Blue 1
4 AM Sat 75 75 SW 10 4468 4753 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst