Detailed Predictions for: Ord
Launch Altitude (f): 4753
LZ Altitude (f): 1614
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Tue 38 38 E 16 2867 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 37 37 E 15 2867 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 37 37 E 16 2867 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 38 38 E 16 2867 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 41 41 E 20 2867 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 44 45 E 21 2867 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 48 50 E 23 4212 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 51 53 E 23 4488 4753 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Tue 52 55 NE 22 4554 4753 0 Blue 5
1 PM Tue 53 55 NE 21 4554 4753 0 Blue 5
2 PM Tue 54 55 NE 20 4554 4753 0 Blue 5
3 PM Tue 53 53 NE 20 4488 4753 0 Blue 3
4 PM Tue 54 54 NE 16 4521 4753 0 Blue 4
5 PM Tue 52 52 NE 15 4456 4753 0 Blue 2
6 PM Tue 51 51 E 15 4390 4753 0 Blue 1
7 PM Tue 49 49 E 14 3639 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 48 48 E 14 3045 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 47 47 E 14 2867 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 46 46 E 13 2867 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 44 44 E 10 2867 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 42 42 E 10 2867 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 40 40 E 9 2867 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 39 39 NE 9 2867 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 38 38 NE 8 2867 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 38 38 E 9 2867 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 37 37 E 10 2867 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 37 37 E 9 2867 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 39 39 E 10 2867 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 42 42 E 12 2867 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 45 46 NE 14 2867 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 49 51 NE 15 4390 4753 0 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 53 55 NE 16 4554 4753 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 56 58 NE 17 4841 4753 0 Blue 8
1 PM Wed 57 59 NE 17 5255 4753 0 Blue 9
2 PM Wed 57 58 NE 16 4841 4753 0 Blue 8
3 PM Wed 58 58 E 15 4841 4753 0 Blue 8
4 PM Wed 57 57 E 14 4645 4753 0 Blue 7
5 PM Wed 56 56 E 14 4586 4753 0 Blue 6
6 PM Wed 55 55 E 14 4554 4753 0 Blue 5
7 PM Wed 54 54 E 14 4521 4753 0 Blue 4
8 PM Wed 52 52 E 13 4456 4753 0 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 50 50 E 13 4212 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 49 49 E 12 3639 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 48 48 E 10 3045 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 46 46 NE 9 2867 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 45 45 NE 8 2867 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 43 43 NE 7 2867 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 42 42 NE 7 2867 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 41 41 NE 7 2867 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 40 40 NE 7 2867 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 40 40 NE 6 2867 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 41 41 NE 6 2867 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 42 42 NE 6 2867 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 44 45 NE 7 2867 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 47 49 NE 7 3639 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 51 54 NE 7 4521 4753 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Thu 55 58 NE 7 4841 4753 0 Blue 8
1 PM Thu 58 60 NE 8 5658 4753 0 Blue 10
2 PM Thu 60 61 NE 8 5743 4832 79 Blue 11
3 PM Thu 60 60 NE 8 5658 4753 0 Blue 10
4 PM Thu 61 61 E 7 5743 4832 79 Blue 11
5 PM Thu 60 60 E 7 5658 4753 0 Blue 10
6 PM Thu 59 59 E 7 5255 4753 0 Blue 9
7 PM Thu 57 57 E 6 4645 4753 0 Blue 7
8 PM Thu 55 55 SE 5 4554 4753 0 Blue 5
9 PM Thu 53 53 S 3 4488 4753 0 Blue 3
10 PM Thu 52 52 S 2 4456 4753 0 Blue 2
11 PM Thu 51 51 SW 2 4390 4753 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Fri 50 50 SW 1 4212 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 49 49 W 1 3639 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 47 47 W 1 2867 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 45 45 N 1 2867 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 44 44 NE 1 2867 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 44 44 NE 1 2867 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 45 45 NE 1 2867 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 47 47 E 2 2867 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 49 49 E 2 3639 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 52 53 E 2 4488 4753 0 Blue 3
10 AM Fri 55 57 N 3 4645 4753 0 Blue 7
11 AM Fri 57 59 N 3 5255 4753 0 Blue 9
12 Noon Fri 60 62 N 3 5821 5241 488 Blue 12
1 PM Fri 61 63 NW 5 5900 5639 886 Blue 13
2 PM Fri 62 63 NW 5 5900 5639 886 Blue 13
3 PM Fri 62 62 NW 5 5821 5241 488 Blue 12
4 PM Fri 62 62 SW 7 5821 5241 488 Blue 12
5 PM Fri 61 61 SW 7 5743 4832 79 Blue 11
6 PM Fri 60 60 SW 7 5658 4753 0 Blue 10
7 PM Fri 59 59 S 6 5255 4753 0 Blue 9
8 PM Fri 58 58 S 6 4841 4753 0 Blue 8
9 PM Fri 56 56 S 6 4586 4753 0 Blue 6
10 PM Fri 55 55 W 5 4554 4753 0 Blue 5
11 PM Fri 54 54 W 5 4521 4753 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sat 52 52 W 5 4456 4753 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sat 50 50 W 6 4212 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 48 48 W 6 3045 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 46 46 W 6 2867 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 45 45 W 6 2867 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 45 45 W 6 2867 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 45 45 W 6 2867 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 46 46 W 3 2867 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 47 47 W 3 2867 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 49 50 W 3 4212 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 52 54 W 3 4521 4753 0 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 54 56 W 3 4586 4753 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 57 59 W 3 5255 4753 0 Blue 9
1 PM Sat 59 61 NW 5 5743 4832 79 Blue 11
2 PM Sat 60 61 NW 5 5743 4832 79 Blue 11
3 PM Sat 60 60 NW 5 5658 4753 0 Blue 10
4 PM Sat 59 59 SW 7 5255 4753 0 Blue 9
5 PM Sat 58 58 SW 7 4841 4753 0 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 58 58 SW 7 4841 4753 0 Blue 8
7 PM Sat 57 57 N 2 4645 4753 0 Blue 7
8 PM Sat 56 56 N 2 4586 4753 0 Blue 6
9 PM Sat 54 54 N 2 4521 4753 0 Blue 4
10 PM Sat 53 53 NE 1 4488 4753 0 Blue 3
11 PM Sat 52 52 NE 1 4456 4753 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sun 50 50 NE 1 4212 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 49 49 NE 6 3639 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 48 48 NE 6 3045 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 48 48 NE 6 3045 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 47 47 NE 5 2867 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 46 46 NE 5 2867 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 46 46 NE 5 2867 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 46 46 E 7 2867 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 49 49 E 7 3639 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 52 53 E 7 4488 4753 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 54 55 E 10 4554 4753 0 Blue 5
11 AM Sun 57 59 E 10 5255 4753 0 Blue 9
12 Noon Sun 58 60 E 10 5658 4753 0 Blue 10
1 PM Sun 59 61 E 12 5743 4832 79 Blue 11
2 PM Sun 60 61 E 12 5743 4832 79 Blue 11
3 PM Sun 60 60 E 12 5658 4753 0 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 60 60 E 10 5658 4753 0 Blue 10
5 PM Sun 58 58 E 10 4841 4753 0 Blue 8
6 PM Sun 57 57 E 10 4645 4753 0 Blue 7
7 PM Sun 55 55 E 9 4554 4753 0 Blue 5
8 PM Sun 55 55 E 9 4554 4753 0 Blue 5
9 PM Sun 54 54 E 9 4521 4753 0 Blue 4
10 PM Sun 53 53 E 6 4488 4753 0 Blue 3
11 PM Sun 51 51 E 6 4390 4753 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Mon 48 48 E 6 3045 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 46 46 E 5 2867 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 45 45 E 5 2867 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 45 45 E 5 2867 4753 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst