Detailed Predictions for: Ord
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.403, -117.183, 4753
LZ Altitude (f): 1614
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

16 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 73 73 SSW 11 19 4934 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 70 70 SSW 9 17 4162 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 68 68 SSW 10 17 3619 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 67 67 SSW 11 19 3346 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 66 66 SSW 11 19 3071 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 65 65 SSW 12 20 2976 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 64 64 SSW 11 18 2976 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 62 62 SSW 11 18 2976 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 64 64 SSW 9 16 2976 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 68 70 SW 9 17 4162 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 73 76 SSW 11 19 5446 4930 177 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 79 84 SSW 13 21 8849 7785 3032 Blue 11
12 Noon Thu 82 88 SSW 14 25 10428 9130 4377 Blue 15
1 PM Thu 82 89 SSW 17 27 11099 9458 4705 Blue 16
2 PM Thu 83 89 SSW 18 28 11099 9458 4705 Blue 16
3 PM Thu 83 88 SSW 19 29 10428 9130 4377 Blue 15
4 PM Thu 82 85 SSW 19 31 9183 8126 3373 Blue 12
5 PM Thu 80 81 S 19 29 7825 5777 1024 Blue 8
6 PM Thu 80 80 S 18 28 7476 5608 855 Blue 7
7 PM Thu 79 79 S 18 28 7124 5439 686 Blue 6
8 PM Thu 78 78 S 17 27 5785 5269 516 Blue 5
9 PM Thu 78 78 S 16 25 5785 5269 516 Blue 5
10 PM Thu 76 76 S 13 23 5446 4930 177 Blue 3
11 PM Thu 75 75 S 12 21 5275 4753 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Fri 72 72 S 12 21 4699 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 70 70 S 12 21 4162 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 68 68 S 13 21 3619 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 67 67 S 12 21 3346 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 67 67 S 12 20 3346 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 65 65 S 11 19 2976 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 64 64 S 10 17 2976 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 63 63 S 8 14 2976 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 64 64 SSE 6 12 2976 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 68 69 S 5 10 3891 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 73 76 SSW 4 10 5446 4930 177 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 79 83 SW 5 11 8511 7440 2687 Blue 10
12 Noon Fri 82 87 SSW 9 16 9842 8799 4046 Blue 14
1 PM Fri 82 88 SSW 12 21 10428 9130 4377 Blue 15
2 PM Fri 83 88 S 16 25 10428 9130 4377 Blue 15
3 PM Fri 83 87 S 17 27 9842 8799 4046 Blue 14
4 PM Fri 82 84 S 17 26 8849 7785 3032 Blue 11
5 PM Fri 81 82 S 16 26 8170 7091 2338 Blue 9
6 PM Fri 81 81 S 16 26 7825 5777 1024 Blue 8
7 PM Fri 80 80 S 16 25 7476 5608 855 Blue 7
8 PM Fri 79 79 S 16 25 7124 5439 686 Blue 6
9 PM Fri 78 78 S 16 26 5785 5269 516 Blue 5
10 PM Fri 77 77 S 16 26 5616 5100 347 Blue 4
11 PM Fri 75 75 S 16 26 5275 4753 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sat 73 73 S 16 26 4934 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 71 71 S 16 25 4431 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 69 69 S 16 25 3891 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 68 68 S 16 25 3619 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 68 68 S 16 25 3619 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 66 66 S 16 25 3071 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 65 65 S 14 24 2976 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 64 64 S 13 21 2976 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 65 65 S 12 21 2976 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 68 69 S 12 21 3891 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 71 74 SSW 13 21 5105 4753 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 75 80 SSW 13 23 7476 5608 855 Blue 7
12 Noon Sat 77 83 SSW 14 24 8511 7440 2687 Blue 10
1 PM Sat 77 83 SSW 16 26 8511 7440 2687 Blue 10
2 PM Sat 78 83 SSW 17 27 8511 7440 2687 Blue 10
3 PM Sat 78 82 SSW 18 29 8170 7091 2338 Blue 9
4 PM Sat 77 79 SSW 19 31 7124 5439 686 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 76 77 SSW 20 31 5616 5100 347 Blue 4
6 PM Sat 76 76 SSW 19 31 5446 4930 177 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 74 74 SSW 18 29 5105 4753 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sat 73 73 S 17 27 4934 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 73 73 S 16 26 4934 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 72 72 SSW 14 24 4699 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 70 70 SSW 13 21 4162 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 67 67 SSW 11 19 3346 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 65 65 WSW 9 17 2976 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 63 63 WSW 8 13 2976 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 62 62 WSW 6 12 2976 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 62 62 WSW 5 11 2976 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 60 60 WSW 4 10 2976 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 59 59 WSW 4 10 2976 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 58 58 WSW 4 10 2976 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 60 60 WSW 4 10 2976 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 63 65 WSW 4 10 2976 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 68 71 WSW 4 10 4431 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 74 79 WSW 8 14 7124 5439 686 Blue 6
12 Noon Sun 77 83 WSW 8 14 8511 7440 2687 Blue 10
1 PM Sun 77 83 WSW 8 14 8511 7440 2687 Blue 10
2 PM Sun 78 84 SSW 12 21 8849 7785 3032 Blue 11
3 PM Sun 78 83 SSW 12 21 8511 7440 2687 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 77 80 SSW 12 21 7476 5608 855 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 75 76 SSW 16 26 5446 4930 177 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 75 75 SSW 16 26 5275 4753 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 74 74 SSW 16 26 5105 4753 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 73 73 SW 14 24 4934 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 72 72 SW 14 24 4699 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 71 71 SW 14 24 4431 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 68 68 WSW 13 21 3619 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 66 66 WSW 13 21 3071 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 63 63 WSW 13 21 2976 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 61 61 W 9 16 2976 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 60 60 W 9 16 2976 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 59 59 W 9 16 2976 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 58 58 W 8 14 2976 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 57 57 W 8 14 2976 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 55 55 W 8 14 2976 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 57 57 NE 6 12 2976 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 61 63 NE 6 12 2976 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 67 70 NE 6 12 4162 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 74 79 NE 11 19 7124 5439 686 Blue 6
12 Noon Mon 78 84 NE 11 19 8849 7785 3032 Blue 11
1 PM Mon 78 85 NE 11 19 9183 8126 3373 Blue 12
2 PM Mon 79 85 NE 10 17 9183 8126 3373 Blue 12
3 PM Mon 79 84 NE 10 17 8849 7785 3032 Blue 11
4 PM Mon 78 81 NE 10 17 7825 5777 1024 Blue 8
5 PM Mon 76 77 NE 10 17 5616 5100 347 Blue 4
6 PM Mon 76 76 NE 10 17 5446 4930 177 Blue 3
7 PM Mon 75 75 NE 10 17 5275 4753 0 Blue 2
8 PM Mon 74 74 NE 10 17 5105 4753 0 Blue 1
9 PM Mon 74 74 NE 10 17 5105 4753 0 Blue 1
10 PM Mon 72 72 NE 10 17 4699 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 71 71 ENE 9 17 4431 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 68 68 ENE 9 17 3619 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 66 66 ENE 9 17 3071 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 64 64 E 10 18 2976 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 63 63 E 10 18 2976 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 63 63 E 10 18 2976 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 61 61 E 11 19 2976 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 60 60 E 11 19 2976 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 59 59 E 11 19 2976 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 61 61 E 10 18 2976 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 65 67 E 10 18 3346 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 70 73 E 10 18 4934 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 76 81 ENE 13 23 7825 5777 1024 Blue 8
12 Noon Tue 80 86 ENE 13 23 9514 8464 3711 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 80 86 ENE 13 23 9514 8464 3711 Blue 13
2 PM Tue 81 87 ENE 10 17 9842 8799 4046 Blue 14
3 PM Tue 81 86 ENE 10 17 9514 8464 3711 Blue 13
4 PM Tue 80 83 ENE 10 17 8511 7440 2687 Blue 10
5 PM Tue 78 79 NE 5 11 7124 5439 686 Blue 6
6 PM Tue 78 78 NE 5 11 5785 5269 516 Blue 5
7 PM Tue 77 77 NE 5 11 5616 5100 347 Blue 4
8 PM Tue 76 76 S 6 13 5446 4930 177 Blue 3
9 PM Tue 76 76 S 6 13 5446 4930 177 Blue 3
10 PM Tue 74 74 S 6 13 5105 4753 0 Blue 1

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst