Detailed Predictions for: Ord
Launch Altitude (f): 4753
LZ Altitude (f): 1614
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Thu 45 45 S 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 45 45 S 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 45 45 S 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 45 45 S 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 45 45 S 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 46 46 S 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 47 47 S 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 48 48 S 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 48 48 S 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 49 49 S 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 48 48 S 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 49 49 S 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 47 47 SW 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 46 46 SW 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 46 46 S 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 45 45 SW 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 45 45 SW 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 44 44 SW 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 44 44 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 43 43 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 42 42 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 41 41 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 41 41 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 40 40 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 39 39 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 40 40 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 39 39 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 39 39 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 40 40 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 41 41 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 44 45 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 45 47 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 47 49 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 49 51 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 48 49 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 49 49 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 48 48 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 46 46 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 46 46 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 46 46 NE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 46 46 E 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 45 45 NE 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 45 45 NE 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 44 44 NE 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 43 43 NE 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 43 43 E 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 42 42 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 42 42 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 41 41 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 42 42 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 42 42 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 41 41 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 42 42 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 44 45 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 48 49 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 51 53 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 53 55 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 56 58 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 55 56 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 56 56 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 54 54 NE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 52 52 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 52 52 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 51 51 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 51 51 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 50 50 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 50 50 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 48 48 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 47 47 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 46 46 E 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 45 45 E 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 45 45 E 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 43 43 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 44 44 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 44 44 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 43 43 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 44 44 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 46 46 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 50 51 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 53 54 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 55 56 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 58 59 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 58 59 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 58 58 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 55 55 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 51 51 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 51 51 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 50 50 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 50 50 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 49 49 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 49 49 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 46 46 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 44 44 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 43 43 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 42 42 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 41 41 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 38 38 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 38 38 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 38 38 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 38 38 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 39 39 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 40 40 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 42 44 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 43 45 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 44 46 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 46 48 NE 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 46 47 NE 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 46 47 NE 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 44 44 NE 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 42 42 NE 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 42 42 NE 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 41 41 NE 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 41 41 NE 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 41 41 NE 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 40 40 NE 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 39 39 NE 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 38 38 NE 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 37 37 NE 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 36 36 NE 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 36 36 NE 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 34 34 NE 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 35 35 NE 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 34 34 NE 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 34 34 E 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 35 35 E 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 37 38 E 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 39 41 NE 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 41 43 NE 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 43 46 NE 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 45 47 NE 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 45 46 NE 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 45 46 NE 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 44 44 NE 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 42 42 NE 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 42 42 NE 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 42 42 E 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 41 41 E 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 41 41 E 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 41 41 E 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 40 40 E 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 39 39 E 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 38 38 E 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 38 38 E 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 37 37 E 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst