Detailed Predictions for: Otay Mesa
Launch Altitude (f): 1550
LZ Altitude (f): 600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 65 65 NW 3 440 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 66 66 NW 3 440 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 67 67 NW 3 440 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 69 69 NW 5 1819 1550 0 White 1
9 AM Sat 72 73 NW 6 2384 2297 747 Blue 5
10 AM Sat 76 78 NW 6 2509 2431 881 Blue 10
11 AM Sat 78 83 W 10 3212 2650 1100 Blue 15
12 Noon Sat 80 85 W 10 3629 2988 1438 Blue 17
1 PM Sat 79 85 W 10 3629 2988 1438 Blue 17
2 PM Sat 80 86 W 13 3836 3196 1646 Blue 18
3 PM Sat 79 84 W 12 3421 2805 1255 Blue 16
4 PM Sat 78 81 W 12 2817 2506 956 Blue 13
5 PM Sat 77 79 W 12 2577 2454 904 Blue 11
6 PM Sat 75 76 W 10 2456 2383 833 Blue 8
7 PM Sat 72 72 W 10 2360 2033 483 Blue 4
8 PM Sat 70 70 NW 8 2039 1550 0 White 2
9 PM Sat 68 68 NW 7 1598 1550 0 White 0
10 PM Sat 68 68 NW 7 1598 1550 0 White 0
11 PM Sat 67 67 NW 5 440 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 67 67 NW 5 440 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 66 66 NW 5 440 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 65 65 N 5 440 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 65 65 N 5 440 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 64 64 N 5 440 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 64 64 N 5 440 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 64 64 N 5 440 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 66 66 N 5 440 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 68 68 N 7 1598 1550 0 White 0
9 AM Sun 71 72 NW 8 2360 2033 483 Blue 4
10 AM Sun 75 77 NW 8 2479 2407 857 Blue 9
11 AM Sun 78 85 NW 12 3629 2988 1438 Blue 17
12 Noon Sun 80 89 NW 12 4323 3816 2266 Blue 21
1 PM Sun 82 91 NW 12 4643 4145 2595 Blue 23
2 PM Sun 83 91 NW 12 4643 4145 2595 Blue 23
3 PM Sun 82 89 NW 13 4323 3816 2266 Blue 21
4 PM Sun 83 88 NW 12 4162 3610 2060 Blue 20
5 PM Sun 82 84 NW 13 3421 2805 1255 Blue 16
6 PM Sun 80 81 NW 12 2817 2506 956 Blue 13
7 PM Sun 78 78 NW 12 2509 2431 881 Blue 10
8 PM Sun 76 76 NW 9 2456 2383 833 Blue 8
9 PM Sun 74 74 NW 8 2408 2330 780 Blue 6
10 PM Sun 72 72 NW 9 2360 2033 483 Blue 4
11 PM Sun 71 71 NW 6 2259 1700 150 White 3
12 Midnight Mon 69 69 NW 6 1819 1550 0 White 1
1 AM Mon 68 68 NW 5 1598 1550 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 66 66 NW 3 440 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 65 65 NW 2 440 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 64 64 NW 3 440 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 64 64 NW 2 440 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 64 64 NW 2 440 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 65 65 NW 2 440 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 67 67 W 3 440 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 71 73 W 5 2384 2297 747 Blue 5
10 AM Mon 75 78 W 6 2509 2431 881 Blue 10
11 AM Mon 79 86 W 8 3836 3196 1646 Blue 18
12 Noon Mon 82 90 W 9 4483 3986 2436 Blue 22
1 PM Mon 84 93 W 10 4963 4464 2914 Blue 25
2 PM Mon 85 93 W 10 4963 4464 2914 Blue 25
3 PM Mon 84 91 W 10 4643 4145 2595 Blue 23
4 PM Mon 84 89 W 10 4323 3816 2266 Blue 21
5 PM Mon 83 85 NW 9 3629 2988 1438 Blue 17
6 PM Mon 80 81 NW 8 2817 2506 956 Blue 13
7 PM Mon 77 77 NW 7 2479 2407 857 Blue 9
8 PM Mon 74 74 W 6 2408 2330 780 Blue 6
9 PM Mon 71 71 NW 5 2259 1700 150 White 3
10 PM Mon 70 70 NW 3 2039 1550 0 White 2
11 PM Mon 69 69 NW 2 1819 1550 0 White 1
12 Midnight Tue 69 69 N 2 1819 1550 0 White 1
1 AM Tue 69 69 NE 2 1819 1550 0 White 1
2 AM Tue 69 69 E 2 1819 1550 0 White 1
3 AM Tue 68 68 E 2 1598 1550 0 White 0
4 AM Tue 67 67 N 1 440 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 67 67 N 1 440 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 69 69 N 1 1819 1550 0 White 1
7 AM Tue 72 72 N 1 2360 2033 483 Blue 4
8 AM Tue 76 77 W 2 2479 2407 857 Blue 9
9 AM Tue 80 82 W 2 3003 2573 1023 Blue 14
10 AM Tue 83 87 W 2 4002 3403 1853 Blue 19
11 AM Tue 85 91 W 10 4643 4145 2595 Blue 23
12 Noon Tue 87 94 W 10 5133 4624 3074 Blue 26
1 PM Tue 89 97 W 10 6044 5109 3559 Blue 29
2 PM Tue 90 97 W 12 6044 5109 3559 Blue 29
3 PM Tue 90 96 W 12 5714 4942 3392 Blue 28
4 PM Tue 90 94 W 12 5133 4624 3074 Blue 26
5 PM Tue 88 90 W 9 4483 3986 2436 Blue 22
6 PM Tue 85 86 W 9 3836 3196 1646 Blue 18
7 PM Tue 82 82 W 9 3003 2573 1023 Blue 14
8 PM Tue 78 78 NW 5 2509 2431 881 Blue 10
9 PM Tue 76 76 NW 5 2456 2383 833 Blue 8
10 PM Tue 75 75 NW 5 2432 2359 809 Blue 7
11 PM Tue 74 74 NW 2 2408 2330 780 Blue 6
12 Midnight Wed 73 73 NW 2 2384 2297 747 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 73 73 NW 2 2384 2297 747 Blue 5
2 AM Wed 72 72 N 0 2360 2033 483 Blue 4
3 AM Wed 72 72 N 0 2360 2033 483 Blue 4
4 AM Wed 71 71 N 0 2259 1700 150 White 3
5 AM Wed 71 71 NE 1 2259 1700 150 White 3
6 AM Wed 72 72 NE 1 2360 2033 483 Blue 4
7 AM Wed 74 74 NE 1 2408 2330 780 Blue 6
8 AM Wed 77 78 W 2 2509 2431 881 Blue 10
9 AM Wed 81 83 W 2 3212 2650 1100 Blue 15
10 AM Wed 86 90 W 2 4483 3986 2436 Blue 22
11 AM Wed 90 97 W 10 6044 5109 3559 Blue 29
12 Noon Wed 92 100 W 10 6420 6021 4471 Blue 32
1 PM Wed 94 102 W 10 8274 6273 4723 Blue 34
2 PM Wed 94 102 W 12 8274 6273 4723 Blue 34
3 PM Wed 93 99 W 12 6294 5656 4106 Blue 31
4 PM Wed 91 96 W 12 5714 4942 3392 Blue 28
5 PM Wed 88 90 W 9 4483 3986 2436 Blue 22
6 PM Wed 85 86 W 9 3836 3196 1646 Blue 18
7 PM Wed 82 82 W 9 3003 2573 1023 Blue 14
8 PM Wed 79 79 W 5 2577 2454 904 Blue 11
9 PM Wed 78 78 W 5 2509 2431 881 Blue 10
10 PM Wed 77 77 W 5 2479 2407 857 Blue 9
11 PM Wed 76 76 NW 1 2456 2383 833 Blue 8
12 Midnight Thu 76 76 NW 1 2456 2383 833 Blue 8
1 AM Thu 75 75 NW 1 2432 2359 809 Blue 7
2 AM Thu 74 74 SE 2 2408 2330 780 Blue 6
3 AM Thu 72 72 SE 2 2360 2033 483 Blue 4
4 AM Thu 71 71 SE 2 2259 1700 150 White 3
5 AM Thu 71 71 E 1 2259 1700 150 White 3
6 AM Thu 72 72 E 1 2360 2033 483 Blue 4
7 AM Thu 74 74 E 1 2408 2330 780 Blue 6
8 AM Thu 77 78 SW 2 2509 2431 881 Blue 10
9 AM Thu 80 83 SW 2 3212 2650 1100 Blue 15
10 AM Thu 83 88 SW 2 4162 3610 2060 Blue 20
11 AM Thu 85 91 W 10 4643 4145 2595 Blue 23
12 Noon Thu 87 94 W 10 5133 4624 3074 Blue 26
1 PM Thu 89 97 W 10 6044 5109 3559 Blue 29
2 PM Thu 89 96 W 12 5714 4942 3392 Blue 28
3 PM Thu 88 94 W 12 5133 4624 3074 Blue 26
4 PM Thu 86 90 W 12 4483 3986 2436 Blue 22
5 PM Thu 84 86 W 9 3836 3196 1646 Blue 18
6 PM Thu 82 83 W 9 3212 2650 1100 Blue 15
7 PM Thu 80 80 W 9 2655 2478 928 Blue 12
8 PM Thu 78 78 SW 5 2509 2431 881 Blue 10
9 PM Thu 77 77 SW 5 2479 2407 857 Blue 9
10 PM Thu 75 75 SW 5 2432 2359 809 Blue 7
11 PM Thu 74 74 NW 2 2408 2330 780 Blue 6
12 Midnight Fri 72 72 NW 2 2360 2033 483 Blue 4
1 AM Fri 70 70 NW 2 2039 1550 0 White 2
2 AM Fri 69 69 N 2 1819 1550 0 White 1
3 AM Fri 68 68 N 2 1598 1550 0 White 0
4 AM Fri 68 68 N 2 1598 1550 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst