Detailed Predictions for: Otay Mesa
Launch Altitude (f): 1550
LZ Altitude (f): 600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue -999 -999 - 607 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue -999 -999 - 607 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 60 60 NE 2 607 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 63 63 NW 2 612 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 67 69 NW 3 1257 1550 0 Blue 5
10 AM Tue 71 74 NW 5 1439 1550 0 Blue 10
11 AM Tue 75 80 W 9 2180 1662 112 Blue 16
12 Noon Tue 78 84 W 9 2696 2234 684 Blue 20
1 PM Tue 77 84 W 10 2696 2234 684 Blue 20
2 PM Tue 78 84 W 13 2696 2234 684 Blue 20
3 PM Tue 77 82 W 13 2293 2088 538 Blue 18
4 PM Tue 76 79 W 13 2093 1550 0 Blue 15
5 PM Tue 75 76 NW 12 1530 1550 0 Blue 12
6 PM Tue 72 72 NW 10 1356 1550 0 Blue 8
7 PM Tue 68 68 NW 9 1210 1550 0 Blue 4
8 PM Tue 66 66 NW 6 1062 1550 0 Blue 2
9 PM Tue 64 64 W 5 794 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 64 64 NW 5 794 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 63 63 NW 2 612 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 63 63 NW 2 612 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 63 63 NW 2 612 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 62 62 N 1 607 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 62 62 NW 1 607 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 62 62 SW 0 607 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 61 61 S 1 607 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 62 62 NE 0 607 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 61 61 N 1 607 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 64 64 N 2 794 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 67 68 NW 2 1210 1550 0 Blue 4
10 AM Wed 71 73 NW 3 1393 1550 0 Blue 9
11 AM Wed 74 79 W 8 2093 1550 0 Blue 15
12 Noon Wed 77 83 W 9 2412 2178 628 Blue 19
1 PM Wed 76 82 W 10 2293 2088 538 Blue 18
2 PM Wed 77 83 W 13 2412 2178 628 Blue 19
3 PM Wed 76 80 W 13 2180 1662 112 Blue 16
4 PM Wed 76 79 W 12 2093 1550 0 Blue 15
5 PM Wed 74 75 NW 10 1485 1550 0 Blue 11
6 PM Wed 72 72 NW 10 1356 1550 0 Blue 8
7 PM Wed 68 68 NW 8 1210 1550 0 Blue 4
8 PM Wed 66 66 NW 5 1062 1550 0 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 65 65 NW 3 934 1550 0 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 64 64 NW 2 794 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 64 64 E 0 794 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 64 64 NE 0 794 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 64 64 NE 1 794 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 63 63 NE 1 612 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 63 63 N 1 612 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 62 62 N 1 607 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 62 62 N 1 607 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 63 63 N 1 612 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 62 62 N 1 607 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 65 65 W 2 934 1550 0 Blue 1
9 AM Thu 68 69 W 3 1257 1550 0 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 72 75 W 5 1485 1550 0 Blue 11
11 AM Thu 76 81 W 8 2237 1907 357 Blue 17
12 Noon Thu 78 84 W 10 2696 2234 684 Blue 20
1 PM Thu 77 83 W 10 2412 2178 628 Blue 19
2 PM Thu 78 84 W 12 2696 2234 684 Blue 20
3 PM Thu 77 81 W 12 2237 1907 357 Blue 17
4 PM Thu 76 79 W 10 2093 1550 0 Blue 15
5 PM Thu 75 76 W 9 1530 1550 0 Blue 12
6 PM Thu 73 73 W 8 1393 1550 0 Blue 9
7 PM Thu 69 69 W 7 1257 1550 0 Blue 5
8 PM Thu 67 67 NW 3 1163 1550 0 Blue 3
9 PM Thu 66 66 NW 3 1062 1550 0 Blue 2
10 PM Thu 65 65 NW 3 934 1550 0 Blue 1
11 PM Thu 65 65 NW 3 934 1550 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Fri 65 65 NW 2 934 1550 0 Blue 1
1 AM Fri 64 64 NW 2 794 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 64 64 NW 1 794 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 64 64 NW 1 794 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 64 64 NW 1 794 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 63 63 N 1 612 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 64 64 N 1 794 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 63 63 N 1 612 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 66 66 NW 2 1062 1550 0 Blue 2
9 AM Fri 69 70 NW 2 1292 1550 0 Blue 6
10 AM Fri 72 74 NW 2 1439 1550 0 Blue 10
11 AM Fri 76 81 W 8 2237 1907 357 Blue 17
12 Noon Fri 78 84 W 8 2696 2234 684 Blue 20
1 PM Fri 78 84 W 8 2696 2234 684 Blue 20
2 PM Fri 78 84 W 13 2696 2234 684 Blue 20
3 PM Fri 77 81 W 13 2237 1907 357 Blue 17
4 PM Fri 76 79 W 13 2093 1550 0 Blue 15
5 PM Fri 75 76 W 9 1530 1550 0 Blue 12
6 PM Fri 73 73 W 9 1393 1550 0 Blue 9
7 PM Fri 69 69 W 9 1257 1550 0 Blue 5
8 PM Fri 67 67 W 6 1163 1550 0 Blue 3
9 PM Fri 66 66 W 6 1062 1550 0 Blue 2
10 PM Fri 65 65 W 6 934 1550 0 Blue 1
11 PM Fri 65 65 NW 2 934 1550 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sat 65 65 NW 2 934 1550 0 Blue 1
1 AM Sat 64 64 NW 2 794 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 64 64 N 3 794 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 64 64 N 3 794 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 64 64 N 3 794 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 63 63 N 3 612 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 64 64 N 3 794 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 63 63 N 3 612 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 66 66 NW 3 1062 1550 0 Blue 2
9 AM Sat 70 71 NW 3 1324 1550 0 Blue 7
10 AM Sat 74 77 NW 3 1668 1550 0 Blue 13
11 AM Sat 77 82 W 8 2293 2088 538 Blue 18
12 Noon Sat 80 86 W 8 3224 2405 855 Blue 22
1 PM Sat 80 86 W 8 3224 2405 855 Blue 22
2 PM Sat 80 86 W 14 3224 2405 855 Blue 22
3 PM Sat 79 83 W 14 2412 2178 628 Blue 19
4 PM Sat 78 81 W 14 2237 1907 357 Blue 17
5 PM Sat 77 78 W 10 1916 1550 0 Blue 14
6 PM Sat 74 74 W 10 1439 1550 0 Blue 10
7 PM Sat 69 69 W 10 1257 1550 0 Blue 5
8 PM Sat 67 67 NW 6 1163 1550 0 Blue 3
9 PM Sat 66 66 NW 6 1062 1550 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sat 65 65 NW 6 934 1550 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sat 64 64 NW 3 794 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 64 64 NW 3 794 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 64 64 NW 3 794 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 64 64 N 3 794 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 63 63 N 3 612 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 63 63 N 3 612 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 62 62 N 3 607 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 63 63 N 3 612 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 62 62 N 3 607 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 65 65 N 3 934 1550 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sun 69 70 N 3 1292 1550 0 Blue 6
10 AM Sun 73 76 N 3 1530 1550 0 Blue 12
11 AM Sun 77 82 NW 10 2293 2088 538 Blue 18
12 Noon Sun 80 86 NW 10 3224 2405 855 Blue 22
1 PM Sun 80 87 NW 10 3486 2680 1130 Blue 23
2 PM Sun 80 86 W 15 3224 2405 855 Blue 22
3 PM Sun 79 84 W 15 2696 2234 684 Blue 20
4 PM Sun 78 81 W 15 2237 1907 357 Blue 17
5 PM Sun 77 78 W 13 1916 1550 0 Blue 14
6 PM Sun 74 74 W 13 1439 1550 0 Blue 10
7 PM Sun 69 69 W 13 1257 1550 0 Blue 5
8 PM Sun 67 67 NW 3 1163 1550 0 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 66 66 NW 3 1062 1550 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 65 65 NW 3 934 1550 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sun 64 64 NW 2 794 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 64 64 NW 2 794 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 64 64 NW 2 794 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 64 64 N 2 794 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 63 63 N 2 612 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 63 63 N 2 612 1550 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst