Detailed Predictions for: Otay Mesa
Launch Altitude (f): 1550
LZ Altitude (f): 600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

24 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 61 61 S 0 581 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 61 61 W 0 581 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 63 63 NW 0 640 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 66 66 W 2 1279 1550 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sat 70 71 W 2 1599 1550 0 Blue 6
10 AM Sat 75 78 W 3 1749 1684 134 Blue 13
11 AM Sat 80 86 W 7 2749 2210 660 Blue 21
12 Noon Sat 82 89 W 9 3534 2731 1181 Blue 24
1 PM Sat 81 89 W 9 3534 2731 1181 Blue 24
2 PM Sat 82 89 W 10 3534 2731 1181 Blue 24
3 PM Sat 81 87 W 10 3049 2310 760 Blue 22
4 PM Sat 80 84 W 9 2315 2011 461 Blue 19
5 PM Sat 78 80 W 8 1915 1727 177 Blue 15
6 PM Sat 75 75 W 8 1685 1620 70 Blue 10
7 PM Sat 71 71 W 7 1599 1550 0 Blue 6
8 PM Sat 69 69 NW 5 1532 1550 0 Blue 4
9 PM Sat 68 68 NW 5 1455 1550 0 Blue 3
10 PM Sat 67 67 NW 5 1367 1550 0 Blue 2
11 PM Sat 67 67 NW 2 1367 1550 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sun 67 67 NW 1 1367 1550 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sun 67 67 NW 1 1367 1550 0 Blue 2
2 AM Sun 66 66 N 0 1279 1550 0 Blue 1
3 AM Sun 66 66 N 0 1279 1550 0 Blue 1
4 AM Sun 65 65 NE 0 1191 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 65 65 E 1 1191 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 66 66 E 1 1279 1550 0 Blue 1
7 AM Sun 68 68 E 1 1455 1550 0 Blue 3
8 AM Sun 70 70 W 1 1574 1550 0 Blue 5
9 AM Sun 75 76 W 2 1706 1641 91 Blue 11
10 AM Sun 79 82 W 3 2115 1812 262 Blue 17
11 AM Sun 82 87 W 8 3049 2310 760 Blue 22
12 Noon Sun 84 91 W 9 3968 3322 1772 Blue 26
1 PM Sun 83 90 W 9 3824 3028 1478 Blue 25
2 PM Sun 84 90 W 10 3824 3028 1478 Blue 25
3 PM Sun 83 88 W 10 3346 2480 930 Blue 23
4 PM Sun 82 85 W 10 2490 2111 561 Blue 20
5 PM Sun 81 82 W 8 2115 1812 262 Blue 17
6 PM Sun 78 78 W 8 1749 1684 134 Blue 13
7 PM Sun 75 75 W 7 1685 1620 70 Blue 10
8 PM Sun 73 73 NW 5 1642 1573 23 Blue 8
9 PM Sun 71 71 NW 5 1599 1550 0 Blue 6
10 PM Sun 70 70 NW 3 1574 1550 0 Blue 5
11 PM Sun 70 70 N 1 1574 1550 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Mon 70 70 N 1 1574 1550 0 Blue 5
1 AM Mon 70 70 N 1 1574 1550 0 Blue 5
2 AM Mon 69 69 N 0 1532 1550 0 Blue 4
3 AM Mon 67 67 N 1 1367 1550 0 Blue 2
4 AM Mon 66 66 NW 1 1279 1550 0 Blue 1
5 AM Mon 66 66 N 1 1279 1550 0 Blue 1
6 AM Mon 67 67 E 1 1367 1550 0 Blue 2
7 AM Mon 69 69 SE 2 1532 1550 0 Blue 4
8 AM Mon 72 72 S 2 1620 1550 0 Blue 7
9 AM Mon 76 77 SW 2 1728 1663 113 Blue 12
10 AM Mon 80 82 W 3 2115 1812 262 Blue 17
11 AM Mon 82 86 W 9 2749 2210 660 Blue 21
12 Noon Mon 82 87 W 10 3049 2310 760 Blue 22
1 PM Mon 82 87 W 12 3049 2310 760 Blue 22
2 PM Mon 81 86 W 12 2749 2210 660 Blue 21
3 PM Mon 80 84 W 12 2315 2011 461 Blue 19
4 PM Mon 79 81 W 12 2015 1749 199 Blue 16
5 PM Mon 77 78 W 9 1749 1684 134 Blue 13
6 PM Mon 75 75 W 8 1685 1620 70 Blue 10
7 PM Mon 72 72 W 7 1620 1550 0 Blue 7
8 PM Mon 70 70 NW 5 1574 1550 0 Blue 5
9 PM Mon 68 68 NW 5 1455 1550 0 Blue 3
10 PM Mon 67 67 W 3 1367 1550 0 Blue 2
11 PM Mon 66 66 NW 2 1279 1550 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Tue 66 66 W 2 1279 1550 0 Blue 1
1 AM Tue 66 66 NW 2 1279 1550 0 Blue 1
2 AM Tue 65 65 NW 2 1191 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 64 64 NW 2 976 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 64 64 NW 2 976 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 64 64 SW 1 976 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 65 65 SW 1 1191 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 67 67 SW 1 1367 1550 0 Blue 2
8 AM Tue 69 69 W 2 1532 1550 0 Blue 4
9 AM Tue 72 74 W 2 1663 1598 48 Blue 9
10 AM Tue 75 78 W 2 1749 1684 134 Blue 13
11 AM Tue 78 83 W 7 2215 1912 362 Blue 18
12 Noon Tue 80 87 W 7 3049 2310 760 Blue 22
1 PM Tue 81 88 W 7 3346 2480 930 Blue 23
2 PM Tue 80 87 W 9 3049 2310 760 Blue 22
3 PM Tue 81 86 W 9 2749 2210 660 Blue 21
4 PM Tue 79 82 W 9 2115 1812 262 Blue 17
5 PM Tue 78 80 W 9 1915 1727 177 Blue 15
6 PM Tue 75 75 W 9 1685 1620 70 Blue 10
7 PM Tue 72 72 W 9 1620 1550 0 Blue 7
8 PM Tue 70 70 W 6 1574 1550 0 Blue 5
9 PM Tue 69 69 W 6 1532 1550 0 Blue 4
10 PM Tue 68 68 W 6 1455 1550 0 Blue 3
11 PM Tue 68 68 W 2 1455 1550 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Wed 67 67 W 2 1367 1550 0 Blue 2
1 AM Wed 67 67 W 2 1367 1550 0 Blue 2
2 AM Wed 66 66 W 2 1279 1550 0 Blue 1
3 AM Wed 66 66 W 2 1279 1550 0 Blue 1
4 AM Wed 65 65 W 2 1191 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 64 64 SW 2 976 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 64 64 SW 2 976 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 64 64 SW 2 976 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 66 66 W 2 1279 1550 0 Blue 1
9 AM Wed 70 71 W 2 1599 1550 0 Blue 6
10 AM Wed 74 77 W 2 1728 1663 113 Blue 12
11 AM Wed 78 84 W 7 2315 2011 461 Blue 19
12 Noon Wed 80 87 W 7 3049 2310 760 Blue 22
1 PM Wed 81 88 W 7 3346 2480 930 Blue 23
2 PM Wed 80 87 W 9 3049 2310 760 Blue 22
3 PM Wed 80 85 W 9 2490 2111 561 Blue 20
4 PM Wed 80 84 W 9 2315 2011 461 Blue 19
5 PM Wed 78 80 W 9 1915 1727 177 Blue 15
6 PM Wed 75 75 W 9 1685 1620 70 Blue 10
7 PM Wed 71 71 W 9 1599 1550 0 Blue 6
8 PM Wed 68 68 W 6 1455 1550 0 Blue 3
9 PM Wed 66 66 W 6 1279 1550 0 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 66 66 W 6 1279 1550 0 Blue 1
11 PM Wed 66 66 NW 2 1279 1550 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 66 66 NW 2 1279 1550 0 Blue 1
1 AM Thu 65 65 NW 2 1191 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 64 64 NW 2 976 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 63 63 NW 2 640 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 63 63 NW 2 640 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 63 63 N 2 640 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 64 64 N 2 976 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 66 66 N 2 1279 1550 0 Blue 1
8 AM Thu 68 68 NW 2 1455 1550 0 Blue 3
9 AM Thu 71 72 NW 2 1620 1550 0 Blue 7
10 AM Thu 75 77 NW 2 1728 1663 113 Blue 12
11 AM Thu 78 84 W 7 2315 2011 461 Blue 19
12 Noon Thu 80 87 W 7 3049 2310 760 Blue 22
1 PM Thu 81 88 W 7 3346 2480 930 Blue 23
2 PM Thu 80 87 W 10 3049 2310 760 Blue 22
3 PM Thu 81 86 W 10 2749 2210 660 Blue 21
4 PM Thu 80 84 W 10 2315 2011 461 Blue 19
5 PM Thu 78 80 W 9 1915 1727 177 Blue 15
6 PM Thu 76 76 W 9 1706 1641 91 Blue 11
7 PM Thu 73 73 W 9 1642 1573 23 Blue 8
8 PM Thu 71 71 W 6 1599 1550 0 Blue 6
9 PM Thu 70 70 W 6 1574 1550 0 Blue 5
10 PM Thu 69 69 W 6 1532 1550 0 Blue 4
11 PM Thu 68 68 NW 2 1455 1550 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Fri 68 68 NW 2 1455 1550 0 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 67 67 NW 2 1367 1550 0 Blue 2
2 AM Fri 66 66 N 2 1279 1550 0 Blue 1
3 AM Fri 66 66 N 2 1279 1550 0 Blue 1
4 AM Fri 65 65 N 2 1191 1550 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst