Detailed Predictions for: Otay Mesa
Launch Altitude (f): 1550
LZ Altitude (f): 600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Thu 53 53 SE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 53 53 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 53 53 E 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 53 53 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 55 55 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 57 57 E 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 60 60 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 61 61 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 62 62 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 62 62 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 62 62 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 62 62 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 61 61 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 58 58 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 56 56 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 55 55 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 54 54 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 54 54 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 53 53 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 52 52 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 52 52 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 51 51 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 51 51 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 51 51 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 51 51 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 51 51 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 51 51 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 51 51 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 53 53 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 56 56 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 58 59 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 60 61 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 61 62 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 61 62 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 61 62 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 61 61 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 60 60 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 57 57 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 55 55 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 54 54 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 53 53 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 53 53 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 52 52 E 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 51 51 NE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 50 50 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 50 50 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 51 51 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 50 50 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 50 50 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 51 51 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 50 50 NE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 51 51 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 55 55 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 60 61 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 66 68 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 70 72 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 73 76 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 74 76 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 74 76 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 74 75 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 72 72 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 66 66 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 61 61 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 59 59 SE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 58 58 SE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 57 57 SE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 56 56 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 54 54 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 53 53 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 52 52 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 52 52 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 52 52 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 52 52 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 53 53 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 52 52 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 52 52 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 56 56 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 60 61 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 65 66 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 67 68 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 70 71 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 71 72 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 71 72 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 70 70 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 68 68 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 63 63 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 59 59 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 57 57 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 56 56 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 56 56 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 54 54 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 53 53 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 52 52 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 51 51 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 51 51 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 51 51 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 51 51 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 51 51 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 51 51 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 51 51 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 53 53 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 56 56 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 58 60 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 60 63 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 61 64 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 62 64 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 62 64 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 61 62 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 60 60 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 56 56 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 53 53 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 52 52 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 51 51 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 50 50 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 50 50 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 49 49 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 48 48 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 47 47 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 48 48 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 47 47 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 47 47 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 48 48 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 47 47 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 47 47 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 51 51 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 55 56 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 60 62 NE 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 63 66 NE 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 66 69 NE 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 67 69 E 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 67 69 E 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 66 67 E 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 64 64 E 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 60 60 E 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 56 56 E 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 54 54 E 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 53 53 E 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 52 52 E 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 51 51 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 50 50 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 49 49 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 48 48 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 48 48 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 48 48 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst