Detailed Predictions for: Otay Mesa
Launch Altitude (f): 1550
LZ Altitude (f): 600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

23 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 57 57 E 6 525 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 58 58 E 6 525 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 57 57 E 6 525 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 59 59 E 6 525 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 62 62 SE 3 525 1550 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 66 67 SE 3 3148 1550 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 68 71 SW 7 4434 3250 1700 White 6
12 Noon Sat 70 74 W 8 5089 4527 2977 White 9
1 PM Sat 71 75 W 8 5303 4869 3319 White 10
2 PM Sat 70 73 W 13 4876 4301 2751 White 8
3 PM Sat 70 73 W 13 4876 4301 2751 White 8
4 PM Sat 69 70 W 12 4220 3140 1590 White 5
5 PM Sat 68 68 W 10 3258 1550 0 Blue 3
6 PM Sat 66 66 W 10 2746 1550 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sat 61 61 W 9 525 1550 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 59 59 NW 6 525 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 58 58 NW 5 525 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 58 58 NW 5 525 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 58 58 NE 6 525 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 58 58 NE 7 525 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 58 58 NE 6 525 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 58 58 NE 6 525 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 58 58 NE 6 525 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 57 57 NE 6 525 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 57 57 NE 3 525 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 58 58 NE 2 525 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 57 57 NE 2 525 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 61 61 NE 3 525 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 66 68 N 2 3258 1550 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 71 74 N 3 5089 4527 2977 White 9
11 AM Sun 76 81 NW 7 6569 6501 4951 White 16
12 Noon Sun 78 84 NW 7 7197 7197 5647 White 19
1 PM Sun 80 86 W 8 7614 7614 6064 White 21
2 PM Sun 79 85 W 15 7407 7407 5857 White 20
3 PM Sun 79 83 W 15 6988 6988 5438 White 18
4 PM Sun 78 80 W 15 6359 6134 4584 White 15
5 PM Sun 76 77 NW 14 5727 5157 3607 White 12
6 PM Sun 72 72 NW 14 4655 3591 2041 White 7
7 PM Sun 66 66 NW 13 2746 1550 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 63 63 N 9 525 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 62 62 N 9 525 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 61 61 N 9 525 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 61 61 NE 6 525 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 61 61 NE 6 525 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 61 61 NE 5 525 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 61 61 E 2 525 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 61 61 E 2 525 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 61 61 E 2 525 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 60 60 NE 7 525 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 61 61 NE 7 525 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 60 60 NE 7 525 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 64 64 N 3 525 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 69 71 N 3 4434 3250 1700 White 6
10 AM Mon 74 77 N 3 5727 5157 3607 White 12
11 AM Mon 78 83 W 10 6988 6988 5438 White 18
12 Noon Mon 80 86 W 10 7614 7614 6064 White 21
1 PM Mon 82 88 W 10 8031 8031 6481 White 23
2 PM Mon 81 87 W 14 7822 7822 6272 White 22
3 PM Mon 81 85 W 14 7407 7407 5857 White 20
4 PM Mon 79 81 W 14 6569 6501 4951 White 16
5 PM Mon 77 78 W 13 5938 5385 3835 White 13
6 PM Mon 73 73 W 13 4876 4301 2751 White 8
7 PM Mon 66 66 W 13 2746 1550 0 Blue 1
8 PM Mon 63 63 NW 5 525 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 62 62 NW 5 525 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 61 61 NW 5 525 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 61 61 N 3 525 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 61 61 N 3 525 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 61 61 N 3 525 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 61 61 E 8 525 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 61 61 E 8 525 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 61 61 E 8 525 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 60 60 NE 8 525 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 61 61 NE 8 525 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 60 60 NE 8 525 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 64 64 E 7 525 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 70 71 E 7 4434 3250 1700 White 6
10 AM Tue 76 79 E 7 6149 5762 4212 White 14
11 AM Tue 80 84 W 9 7197 7197 5647 White 19
12 Noon Tue 83 88 W 9 8031 8031 6481 White 23
1 PM Tue 85 91 W 9 8648 8648 7098 White 26
2 PM Tue 85 90 W 15 8443 8443 6893 White 25
3 PM Tue 84 88 W 15 8031 8031 6481 White 23
4 PM Tue 82 84 W 15 7197 7197 5647 White 19
5 PM Tue 80 81 W 10 6569 6501 4951 White 16
6 PM Tue 76 76 W 10 5516 4984 3434 White 11
7 PM Tue 69 69 W 10 3607 2735 1185 Blue 4
8 PM Tue 65 65 NW 5 525 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 64 64 NW 5 525 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 63 63 NW 5 525 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 63 63 N 5 525 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 63 63 N 5 525 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 63 63 N 5 525 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 63 63 NE 8 525 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 63 63 NE 8 525 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 63 63 NE 8 525 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 63 63 NE 6 525 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 63 63 NE 6 525 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 62 62 NE 6 525 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 66 66 E 3 2746 1550 0 Blue 1
9 AM Wed 71 72 E 3 4655 3591 2041 White 7
10 AM Wed 76 79 E 3 6149 5762 4212 White 14
11 AM Wed 80 85 W 9 7407 7407 5857 White 20
12 Noon Wed 82 88 W 9 8031 8031 6481 White 23
1 PM Wed 84 90 W 9 8443 8443 6893 White 25
2 PM Wed 84 90 W 14 8443 8443 6893 White 25
3 PM Wed 83 87 W 14 7822 7822 6272 White 22
4 PM Wed 81 83 W 14 6988 6988 5438 White 18
5 PM Wed 80 81 W 10 6569 6501 4951 White 16
6 PM Wed 76 76 W 10 5516 4984 3434 White 11
7 PM Wed 69 69 W 10 3607 2735 1185 Blue 4
8 PM Wed 66 66 NW 5 2746 1550 0 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 65 65 NW 5 525 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 64 64 NW 5 525 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 64 64 N 5 525 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 64 64 N 5 525 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 64 64 N 5 525 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 64 64 NE 7 525 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 64 64 NE 7 525 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 64 64 NE 7 525 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 64 64 NE 7 525 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 64 64 NE 7 525 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 63 63 NE 7 525 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 66 66 NE 3 2746 1550 0 Blue 1
9 AM Thu 72 73 NE 3 4876 4301 2751 White 8
10 AM Thu 77 80 NE 3 6359 6134 4584 White 15
11 AM Thu 81 86 W 9 7614 7614 6064 White 21
12 Noon Thu 83 89 W 9 8237 8237 6687 White 24
1 PM Thu 85 91 W 9 8648 8648 7098 White 26
2 PM Thu 85 90 W 12 8443 8443 6893 White 25
3 PM Thu 84 88 W 12 8031 8031 6481 White 23
4 PM Thu 82 84 W 12 7197 7197 5647 White 19
5 PM Thu 80 81 NW 10 6569 6501 4951 White 16
6 PM Thu 77 77 NW 10 5727 5157 3607 White 12
7 PM Thu 70 70 NW 10 4220 3140 1590 White 5
8 PM Thu 67 67 NW 5 3148 1550 0 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 66 66 NW 5 2746 1550 0 Blue 1
10 PM Thu 65 65 NW 5 525 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 65 65 N 6 525 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 65 65 N 6 525 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 65 65 N 6 525 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 65 65 NE 5 525 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 65 65 NE 5 525 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 65 65 NE 5 525 1550 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst