Detailed Predictions for: Otay Mesa
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.5740107668, -116.89399273, 1550
LZ Altitude (f): 600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

27 FEB 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 61 61 SSW 2 2 2796 2219 669 Blue 1
1 AM Sat 60 60 SSW 2 2 2598 2037 487 Blue 1
2 AM Sat 59 59 S 2 3 2407 1854 304 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 58 58 SSW 2 2 2224 1671 121 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 57 57 SSW 2 2 2040 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 55 55 SSW 2 2 1672 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 55 55 S 1 2 1672 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 56 56 SE 1 1 1856 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 56 57 ESE 0 1 2040 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 59 61 SSE 2 2 2796 2219 669 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 62 66 SSW 3 4 3779 3180 1630 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 65 70 W 4 5 4559 3959 2409 Blue 10
12 Noon Sat 66 71 W 5 6 4753 4153 2603 Blue 11
1 PM Sat 67 72 W 6 7 4983 4347 2797 Blue 12
2 PM Sat 68 71 W 7 8 4753 4153 2603 Blue 11
3 PM Sat 67 69 W 7 8 4365 3765 2215 Blue 9
4 PM Sat 66 66 WSW 7 8 3779 3180 1630 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 66 66 WSW 7 8 3779 3180 1630 Blue 6
6 PM Sat 64 64 W 6 7 3387 2787 1237 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 62 62 W 4 5 2993 2401 851 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 61 61 WNW 3 3 2796 2219 669 Blue 1
9 PM Sat 61 61 SW 2 3 2796 2219 669 Blue 1
10 PM Sat 60 60 S 2 2 2598 2037 487 Blue 1
11 PM Sat 60 60 SE 2 2 2598 2037 487 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sun 59 59 ESE 3 5 2407 1854 304 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 57 57 E 5 9 2040 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 55 55 E 7 13 1672 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 54 54 E 7 13 1487 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 53 53 E 7 14 1322 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 52 52 E 8 15 1322 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 52 52 E 8 16 1322 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 51 51 E 9 17 1322 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 51 52 E 10 17 1322 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 55 57 E 10 15 2040 1550 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 58 62 E 10 13 2993 2401 851 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 62 67 E 10 11 3975 3375 1825 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 64 69 E 10 11 4365 3765 2215 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 66 71 E 9 11 4753 4153 2603 Blue 11
2 PM Sun 67 70 E 9 10 4559 3959 2409 Blue 10
3 PM Sun 67 69 E 9 10 4365 3765 2215 Blue 9
4 PM Sun 67 67 E 8 10 3975 3375 1825 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 66 66 E 8 10 3779 3180 1630 Blue 6
6 PM Sun 64 64 E 8 11 3387 2787 1237 Blue 4
7 PM Sun 61 61 E 8 12 2796 2219 669 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 59 59 E 7 13 2407 1854 304 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 58 58 E 7 12 2224 1671 121 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 57 57 E 6 11 2040 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 56 56 E 6 11 1856 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 55 55 E 6 10 1672 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 55 55 E 5 9 1672 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 55 55 E 5 8 1672 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 54 54 E 5 10 1487 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 53 53 E 6 11 1322 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 52 52 E 6 12 1322 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 52 52 E 6 12 1322 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 52 52 E 6 13 1322 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 52 53 E 7 14 1322 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 56 58 E 7 12 2224 1671 121 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 61 65 E 7 10 3583 2984 1434 Blue 5
11 AM Mon 66 71 E 7 8 4753 4153 2603 Blue 11
12 Noon Mon 69 74 E 5 5 5618 4732 3182 Blue 14
1 PM Mon 73 78 E 2 3 6856 5886 4336 Blue 18
2 PM Mon 76 79 ENE 0 1 7191 6194 4644 Blue 19
3 PM Mon 73 75 SE 3 3 5931 4947 3397 Blue 15
4 PM Mon 70 70 SSW 5 6 4559 3959 2409 Blue 10
5 PM Mon 67 67 W 8 9 3975 3375 1825 Blue 7
6 PM Mon 66 66 WNW 6 7 3779 3180 1630 Blue 6
7 PM Mon 65 65 NW 4 5 3583 2984 1434 Blue 5
8 PM Mon 64 64 NW 3 3 3387 2787 1237 Blue 4
9 PM Mon 61 61 NW 3 4 2796 2219 669 Blue 1
10 PM Mon 58 58 NNW 3 5 2224 1671 121 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 55 55 NNW 3 6 1672 1550 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst