Detailed Predictions for: Otay Mesa
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.5740107668, -116.89399273, 1550
LZ Altitude (f): 600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

16 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 65 65 WNW 2 4 2550 2520 970 Blue 7
1 AM Thu 64 64 WNW 2 4 2540 2510 960 Blue 6
2 AM Thu 64 64 WNW 2 4 2540 2510 960 Blue 6
3 AM Thu 64 64 WNW 2 5 2540 2510 960 Blue 6
4 AM Thu 63 63 WNW 2 5 2530 2500 950 Blue 5
5 AM Thu 63 63 WNW 2 5 2530 2500 950 Blue 5
6 AM Thu 62 62 NW 2 5 2520 2489 939 Blue 4
7 AM Thu 63 63 WNW 2 4 2530 2500 950 Blue 5
8 AM Thu 66 66 WNW 2 3 2560 2530 980 Blue 8
9 AM Thu 70 72 WNW 3 3 2620 2590 1040 Blue 14
10 AM Thu 73 77 W 4 5 2710 2643 1093 Blue 19
11 AM Thu 77 82 W 5 6 3408 2843 1293 Blue 24
12 Noon Thu 83 90 W 7 8 5264 4683 3133 Blue 32
1 PM Thu 85 92 W 7 8 5593 5081 3531 Blue 34
2 PM Thu 86 92 W 8 10 5593 5081 3531 Blue 34
3 PM Thu 85 90 W 9 11 5264 4683 3133 Blue 32
4 PM Thu 83 86 W 8 10 4452 3652 2102 Blue 28
5 PM Thu 76 77 W 8 9 2710 2643 1093 Blue 19
6 PM Thu 75 75 W 7 8 2666 2620 1070 Blue 17
7 PM Thu 72 72 W 6 6 2620 2590 1040 Blue 14
8 PM Thu 68 68 WNW 5 8 2580 2550 1000 Blue 10
9 PM Thu 67 67 WNW 4 6 2570 2540 990 Blue 9
10 PM Thu 66 66 WNW 3 4 2560 2530 980 Blue 8
11 PM Thu 66 66 WNW 3 4 2560 2530 980 Blue 8
12 Midnight Fri 65 65 W 3 4 2550 2520 970 Blue 7
1 AM Fri 65 65 WNW 3 5 2550 2520 970 Blue 7
2 AM Fri 64 64 WNW 3 5 2540 2510 960 Blue 6
3 AM Fri 64 64 WNW 2 4 2540 2510 960 Blue 6
4 AM Fri 63 63 WNW 2 3 2530 2500 950 Blue 5
5 AM Fri 63 63 WNW 2 3 2530 2500 950 Blue 5
6 AM Fri 63 63 W 1 3 2530 2500 950 Blue 5
7 AM Fri 63 63 W 2 4 2530 2500 950 Blue 5
8 AM Fri 65 65 W 3 4 2550 2520 970 Blue 7
9 AM Fri 70 72 W 3 3 2620 2590 1040 Blue 14
10 AM Fri 73 76 W 4 5 2688 2630 1080 Blue 18
11 AM Fri 76 81 WSW 5 6 3144 2741 1191 Blue 23
12 Noon Fri 84 90 WSW 6 8 5264 4683 3133 Blue 32
1 PM Fri 85 92 W 8 10 5593 5081 3531 Blue 34
2 PM Fri 85 91 W 9 11 5429 4917 3367 Blue 33
3 PM Fri 84 89 W 9 10 5100 4427 2877 Blue 31
4 PM Fri 82 85 W 8 10 4192 3392 1842 Blue 27
5 PM Fri 76 77 W 7 8 2710 2643 1093 Blue 19
6 PM Fri 75 75 W 6 7 2666 2620 1070 Blue 17
7 PM Fri 72 72 W 5 6 2620 2590 1040 Blue 14
8 PM Fri 69 69 WNW 4 7 2590 2560 1010 Blue 11
9 PM Fri 68 68 WNW 3 5 2580 2550 1000 Blue 10
10 PM Fri 67 67 W 3 5 2570 2540 990 Blue 9
11 PM Fri 67 67 WNW 3 5 2570 2540 990 Blue 9
12 Midnight Sat 66 66 WNW 3 5 2560 2530 980 Blue 8
1 AM Sat 65 65 NW 2 4 2550 2520 970 Blue 7
2 AM Sat 65 65 WNW 2 4 2550 2520 970 Blue 7
3 AM Sat 65 65 WNW 2 4 2550 2520 970 Blue 7
4 AM Sat 64 64 WNW 1 3 2540 2510 960 Blue 6
5 AM Sat 64 64 WNW 2 4 2540 2510 960 Blue 6
6 AM Sat 63 63 WNW 2 5 2530 2500 950 Blue 5
7 AM Sat 64 64 WNW 2 4 2540 2510 960 Blue 6
8 AM Sat 66 66 WNW 2 3 2560 2530 980 Blue 8
9 AM Sat 70 72 W 3 3 2620 2590 1040 Blue 14
10 AM Sat 73 77 W 3 4 2710 2643 1093 Blue 19
11 AM Sat 78 83 W 5 5 3671 2937 1387 Blue 25
12 Noon Sat 84 91 W 7 8 5429 4917 3367 Blue 33
1 PM Sat 86 93 W 8 9 5757 5245 3695 Blue 35
2 PM Sat 86 92 W 9 10 5593 5081 3531 Blue 34
3 PM Sat 85 90 W 9 10 5264 4683 3133 Blue 32
4 PM Sat 84 87 W 8 10 4709 3912 2362 Blue 29
5 PM Sat 81 82 WNW 8 9 3408 2843 1293 Blue 24
6 PM Sat 77 77 WNW 6 7 2710 2643 1093 Blue 19
7 PM Sat 75 75 WNW 5 5 2666 2620 1070 Blue 17
8 PM Sat 69 69 WNW 4 6 2590 2560 1010 Blue 11
9 PM Sat 68 68 WNW 4 6 2580 2550 1000 Blue 10
10 PM Sat 68 68 WNW 3 5 2580 2550 1000 Blue 10
11 PM Sat 66 66 WNW 3 6 2560 2530 980 Blue 8

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst