Detailed Predictions for: Otay Mesa
Launch Altitude (f): 1550
LZ Altitude (f): 600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

17 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 58 58 SE 2 440 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 58 58 E 2 440 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 57 57 E 2 440 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 58 58 SE 2 440 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 61 61 S 2 801 1550 0 White 0
10 AM Thu 66 66 S 3 1305 1550 0 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 70 74 SW 6 1590 1550 0 Blue 12
12 Noon Thu 72 76 SW 7 1795 1550 0 Blue 14
1 PM Thu 72 76 W 9 1795 1550 0 Blue 14
2 PM Thu 73 77 W 10 1924 1588 38 Blue 15
3 PM Thu 72 75 W 10 1667 1550 0 Blue 13
4 PM Thu 70 71 W 9 1404 1550 0 Blue 9
5 PM Thu 68 68 W 9 1345 1550 0 Blue 6
6 PM Thu 65 65 W 7 1285 1550 0 Blue 3
7 PM Thu 63 63 W 6 1210 1550 0 White 1
8 PM Thu 61 61 SW 3 801 1550 0 White 0
9 PM Thu 60 60 SW 2 440 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 60 60 S 3 440 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 60 60 SE 3 440 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 60 60 S 3 440 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 60 60 SE 3 440 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 59 59 SE 3 440 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 58 58 SE 3 440 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 56 56 E 3 440 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 55 55 E 3 440 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 55 55 E 3 440 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 56 56 E 2 440 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 57 57 E 2 440 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 60 61 NE 3 801 1550 0 White 0
10 AM Fri 64 66 NW 3 1305 1550 0 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 68 71 W 6 1404 1550 0 Blue 9
12 Noon Fri 71 75 W 7 1667 1550 0 Blue 13
1 PM Fri 73 77 W 8 1924 1588 38 Blue 15
2 PM Fri 73 77 W 9 1924 1588 38 Blue 15
3 PM Fri 74 77 W 9 1924 1588 38 Blue 15
4 PM Fri 73 74 W 9 1590 1550 0 Blue 12
5 PM Fri 71 71 NW 9 1404 1550 0 Blue 9
6 PM Fri 69 69 NW 7 1364 1550 0 Blue 7
7 PM Fri 67 67 N 6 1325 1550 0 Blue 5
8 PM Fri 65 65 N 3 1285 1550 0 Blue 3
9 PM Fri 64 64 N 2 1266 1550 0 Blue 2
10 PM Fri 62 62 NE 2 988 1550 0 White 0
11 PM Fri 61 61 NE 2 801 1550 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sat 61 61 NE 1 801 1550 0 White 0
1 AM Sat 60 60 E 1 440 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 60 60 E 2 440 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 59 59 E 2 440 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 58 58 E 2 440 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 58 58 SE 2 440 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 57 57 E 2 440 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 57 57 E 3 440 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 59 59 E 3 440 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 62 63 SE 3 1210 1550 0 White 1
10 AM Sat 66 68 SW 5 1345 1550 0 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 70 74 W 6 1590 1550 0 Blue 12
12 Noon Sat 73 78 W 7 2054 1665 115 Blue 16
1 PM Sat 74 79 W 9 2194 1791 241 Blue 17
2 PM Sat 74 78 W 10 2054 1665 115 Blue 16
3 PM Sat 75 78 W 10 2054 1665 115 Blue 16
4 PM Sat 73 74 W 9 1590 1550 0 Blue 12
5 PM Sat 71 71 W 8 1404 1550 0 Blue 9
6 PM Sat 68 68 W 7 1345 1550 0 Blue 6
7 PM Sat 64 64 NW 5 1266 1550 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 62 62 NW 3 988 1550 0 White 0
9 PM Sat 60 60 N 2 440 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 59 59 NE 3 440 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 59 59 E 5 440 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 59 59 E 5 440 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 59 59 E 3 440 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 58 58 E 3 440 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 58 58 NE 3 440 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 57 57 NE 3 440 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 57 57 NE 2 440 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 56 56 NE 2 440 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 56 56 NE 2 440 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 59 59 NE 5 440 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 64 65 NE 5 1285 1550 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 70 72 NE 5 1459 1550 0 Blue 10
11 AM Sun 75 79 W 7 2194 1791 241 Blue 17
12 Noon Sun 78 82 W 7 3792 2177 627 Blue 20
1 PM Sun 79 84 W 7 4652 3315 1765 Blue 22
2 PM Sun 80 84 W 9 4652 3315 1765 Blue 22
3 PM Sun 78 81 W 9 3351 2048 498 Blue 19
4 PM Sun 75 76 W 9 1795 1550 0 Blue 14
5 PM Sun 71 71 NW 7 1404 1550 0 Blue 9
6 PM Sun 68 68 NW 7 1345 1550 0 Blue 6
7 PM Sun 65 65 NW 7 1285 1550 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sun 63 63 NE 5 1210 1550 0 White 1
9 PM Sun 61 61 NE 5 801 1550 0 White 0
10 PM Sun 61 61 NE 5 801 1550 0 White 0
11 PM Sun 62 62 E 9 988 1550 0 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 65 65 E 9 1285 1550 0 Blue 3
1 AM Mon 68 68 E 9 1345 1550 0 Blue 6
2 AM Mon 71 71 E 14 1404 1550 0 Blue 9
3 AM Mon 71 71 E 14 1404 1550 0 Blue 9
4 AM Mon 70 70 E 14 1384 1550 0 Blue 8
5 AM Mon 69 69 E 14 1364 1550 0 Blue 7
6 AM Mon 68 68 E 14 1345 1550 0 Blue 6
7 AM Mon 68 68 E 14 1345 1550 0 Blue 6
8 AM Mon 70 70 E 15 1384 1550 0 Blue 8
9 AM Mon 75 76 E 15 1795 1550 0 Blue 14
10 AM Mon 80 82 E 15 3792 2177 627 Blue 20
11 AM Mon 84 88 NE 12 6512 5069 3519 Blue 26
12 Noon Mon 87 91 NE 12 7369 6480 4930 White 29
1 PM Mon 86 91 NE 12 7369 6480 4930 White 29
2 PM Mon 86 90 NW 8 6988 6177 4627 Blue 28
3 PM Mon 86 89 NW 8 6712 5632 4082 Blue 27
4 PM Mon 85 86 NW 8 5719 4180 2630 Blue 24
5 PM Mon 83 83 NW 7 4226 2692 1142 Blue 21
6 PM Mon 79 79 NW 7 2194 1791 241 Blue 17
7 PM Mon 75 75 NW 7 1667 1550 0 Blue 13
8 PM Mon 71 71 N 2 1404 1550 0 Blue 9
9 PM Mon 69 69 N 2 1364 1550 0 Blue 7
10 PM Mon 68 68 N 2 1345 1550 0 Blue 6
11 PM Mon 68 68 E 3 1345 1550 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Tue 66 66 E 3 1305 1550 0 Blue 4
1 AM Tue 65 65 E 3 1285 1550 0 Blue 3
2 AM Tue 63 63 E 7 1210 1550 0 White 1
3 AM Tue 62 62 E 7 988 1550 0 White 0
4 AM Tue 62 62 E 7 988 1550 0 White 0
5 AM Tue 63 63 E 8 1210 1550 0 White 1
6 AM Tue 64 64 E 8 1266 1550 0 Blue 2
7 AM Tue 67 67 E 8 1325 1550 0 Blue 5
8 AM Tue 70 70 E 7 1384 1550 0 Blue 8
9 AM Tue 75 76 E 7 1795 1550 0 Blue 14
10 AM Tue 79 81 E 7 3351 2048 498 Blue 19
11 AM Tue 83 87 NW 7 6271 4601 3051 Blue 25
12 Noon Tue 85 90 NW 7 6988 6177 4627 Blue 28
1 PM Tue 85 90 NW 7 6988 6177 4627 Blue 28
2 PM Tue 86 90 W 10 6988 6177 4627 Blue 28
3 PM Tue 84 87 W 10 6271 4601 3051 Blue 25
4 PM Tue 82 83 W 10 4226 2692 1142 Blue 21
5 PM Tue 78 78 W 8 2054 1665 115 Blue 16
6 PM Tue 75 75 W 8 1667 1550 0 Blue 13
7 PM Tue 71 71 W 8 1404 1550 0 Blue 9
8 PM Tue 68 68 N 3 1345 1550 0 Blue 6
9 PM Tue 66 66 N 3 1305 1550 0 Blue 4
10 PM Tue 65 65 N 3 1285 1550 0 Blue 3
11 PM Tue 64 64 N 3 1266 1550 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Wed 64 64 N 3 1266 1550 0 Blue 2
1 AM Wed 64 64 N 3 1266 1550 0 Blue 2
2 AM Wed 64 64 NE 5 1266 1550 0 Blue 2
3 AM Wed 62 62 NE 5 988 1550 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 61 61 NE 5 801 1550 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst