Detailed Predictions for: Otay Mesa
Launch Altitude (f): 1550
LZ Altitude (f): 600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

15 JUN 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 58 58 NW 1 801 1550 0 White 0
6 AM Sat 58 58 W 1 801 1550 0 White 0
7 AM Sat 59 59 W 2 945 1550 0 White 0
8 AM Sat 61 61 W 2 1386 1550 0 White 0
9 AM Sat 64 64 W 3 2049 2049 499 White 4
10 AM Sat 68 68 W 5 2955 2955 1405 White 8
11 AM Sat 71 77 W 8 3697 3588 2038 Blue 16
12 Noon Sat 73 80 W 9 3832 3694 2144 Blue 19
1 PM Sat 72 79 W 9 3779 3658 2108 Blue 18
2 PM Sat 72 79 W 12 3779 3658 2108 Blue 18
3 PM Sat 71 76 W 12 3662 3553 2003 Blue 15
4 PM Sat 70 74 W 12 3591 3502 1952 Blue 13
5 PM Sat 69 70 W 9 3385 3385 1835 White 10
6 PM Sat 67 67 W 9 2739 2739 1189 White 7
7 PM Sat 64 64 W 8 2049 2049 499 White 4
8 PM Sat 61 61 W 6 1386 1550 0 White 0
9 PM Sat 60 60 W 5 1165 1550 0 White 0
10 PM Sat 59 59 NW 5 945 1550 0 White 0
11 PM Sat 59 59 NW 3 945 1550 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 59 59 NW 3 945 1550 0 White 0
1 AM Sun 58 58 NW 3 801 1550 0 White 0
2 AM Sun 58 58 NW 3 801 1550 0 White 0
3 AM Sun 58 58 NW 3 801 1550 0 White 0
4 AM Sun 58 58 NW 3 801 1550 0 White 0
5 AM Sun 58 58 NW 3 801 1550 0 White 0
6 AM Sun 58 58 NW 3 801 1550 0 White 0
7 AM Sun 59 59 NW 3 945 1550 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 61 61 W 3 1386 1550 0 White 0
9 AM Sun 64 64 W 5 2049 2049 499 White 4
10 AM Sun 68 68 W 6 2955 2955 1405 White 8
11 AM Sun 71 76 W 8 3662 3553 2003 Blue 15
12 Noon Sun 73 79 W 9 3779 3658 2108 Blue 18
1 PM Sun 72 79 W 9 3779 3658 2108 Blue 18
2 PM Sun 72 78 W 10 3732 3623 2073 Blue 17
3 PM Sun 71 76 W 10 3662 3553 2003 Blue 15
4 PM Sun 70 73 W 10 3556 3481 1931 Blue 12
5 PM Sun 69 70 W 9 3385 3385 1835 White 10
6 PM Sun 67 67 W 9 2739 2739 1189 White 7
7 PM Sun 64 64 W 8 2049 2049 499 White 4
8 PM Sun 61 61 W 6 1386 1550 0 White 0
9 PM Sun 60 60 W 6 1165 1550 0 White 0
10 PM Sun 59 59 W 5 945 1550 0 White 0
11 PM Sun 59 59 W 2 945 1550 0 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 59 59 W 3 945 1550 0 White 0
1 AM Mon 58 58 W 3 801 1550 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 58 58 W 3 801 1550 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 58 58 W 3 801 1550 0 White 0
4 AM Mon 58 58 W 3 801 1550 0 White 0
5 AM Mon 58 58 W 3 801 1550 0 White 0
6 AM Mon 58 58 W 3 801 1550 0 White 0
7 AM Mon 59 59 W 2 945 1550 0 White 0
8 AM Mon 61 61 SW 3 1386 1550 0 White 0
9 AM Mon 64 64 SW 5 2049 2049 499 White 4
10 AM Mon 68 68 W 6 2955 2955 1405 White 8
11 AM Mon 71 77 W 8 3697 3588 2038 Blue 16
12 Noon Mon 73 80 W 9 3832 3694 2144 Blue 19
1 PM Mon 72 79 W 10 3779 3658 2108 Blue 18
2 PM Mon 72 79 W 10 3779 3658 2108 Blue 18
3 PM Mon 71 76 W 10 3662 3553 2003 Blue 15
4 PM Mon 70 74 W 10 3591 3502 1952 Blue 13
5 PM Mon 69 71 W 10 3504 3439 1889 Blue 10
6 PM Mon 67 68 W 9 2955 2955 1405 White 8
7 PM Mon 64 64 W 8 2049 2049 499 White 4
8 PM Mon 60 60 W 6 1165 1550 0 White 0
9 PM Mon 59 59 W 6 945 1550 0 White 0
10 PM Mon 58 58 W 5 801 1550 0 White 0
11 PM Mon 58 58 W 2 801 1550 0 White 0
12 Midnight Tue 58 58 NW 3 801 1550 0 White 0
1 AM Tue 58 58 NW 2 801 1550 0 White 0
2 AM Tue 57 57 NW 2 801 1550 0 White 0
3 AM Tue 57 57 NW 2 801 1550 0 White 0
4 AM Tue 58 58 N 3 801 1550 0 White 0
5 AM Tue 57 57 N 1 801 1550 0 White 0
6 AM Tue 57 57 N 1 801 1550 0 White 0
7 AM Tue 58 58 N 1 801 1550 0 White 0
8 AM Tue 60 60 W 2 1165 1550 0 White 0
9 AM Tue 64 64 W 2 2049 2049 499 White 4
10 AM Tue 68 68 W 2 2955 2955 1405 White 8
11 AM Tue 71 77 W 8 3697 3588 2038 Blue 16
12 Noon Tue 73 80 W 8 3832 3694 2144 Blue 19
1 PM Tue 73 80 W 8 3832 3694 2144 Blue 19
2 PM Tue 72 78 W 10 3732 3623 2073 Blue 17
3 PM Tue 71 76 W 10 3662 3553 2003 Blue 15
4 PM Tue 70 74 W 10 3591 3502 1952 Blue 13
5 PM Tue 69 71 W 9 3504 3439 1889 Blue 10
6 PM Tue 68 69 W 9 3171 3171 1621 White 9
7 PM Tue 65 65 W 9 2285 2285 735 White 5
8 PM Tue 62 62 W 6 1607 1550 0 White 0
9 PM Tue 60 60 W 6 1165 1550 0 White 0
10 PM Tue 60 60 W 6 1165 1550 0 White 0
11 PM Tue 60 60 W 2 1165 1550 0 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 60 60 W 2 1165 1550 0 White 0
1 AM Wed 59 59 W 2 945 1550 0 White 0
2 AM Wed 59 59 NW 2 945 1550 0 White 0
3 AM Wed 59 59 NW 2 945 1550 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 60 60 NW 2 1165 1550 0 White 0
5 AM Wed 59 59 N 2 945 1550 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 59 59 N 2 945 1550 0 White 0
7 AM Wed 60 60 N 2 1165 1550 0 White 0
8 AM Wed 62 62 W 3 1607 1550 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 66 67 W 3 2739 2739 1189 White 7
10 AM Wed 70 71 W 3 3504 3439 1889 Blue 10
11 AM Wed 73 79 W 9 3779 3658 2108 Blue 18
12 Noon Wed 76 83 W 9 3991 3827 2277 Blue 22
1 PM Wed 76 84 W 9 4056 3880 2330 Blue 23
2 PM Wed 75 82 W 12 3938 3774 2224 Blue 21
3 PM Wed 74 80 W 12 3832 3694 2144 Blue 19
4 PM Wed 73 77 W 12 3697 3588 2038 Blue 16
5 PM Wed 72 74 W 10 3591 3502 1952 Blue 13
6 PM Wed 69 70 W 10 3385 3385 1835 White 10
7 PM Wed 66 66 W 10 2522 2522 972 White 6
8 PM Wed 62 62 W 7 1607 1550 0 White 0
9 PM Wed 61 61 W 7 1386 1550 0 White 0
10 PM Wed 60 60 W 7 1165 1550 0 White 0
11 PM Wed 60 60 NW 3 1165 1550 0 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 60 60 NW 3 1165 1550 0 White 0
1 AM Thu 60 60 NW 3 1165 1550 0 White 0
2 AM Thu 60 60 W 3 1165 1550 0 White 0
3 AM Thu 60 60 W 3 1165 1550 0 White 0
4 AM Thu 60 60 W 3 1165 1550 0 White 0
5 AM Thu 59 59 W 2 945 1550 0 White 0
6 AM Thu 59 59 W 2 945 1550 0 White 0
7 AM Thu 60 60 W 2 1165 1550 0 White 0
8 AM Thu 62 62 W 3 1607 1550 0 White 0
9 AM Thu 66 66 W 3 2522 2522 972 White 6
10 AM Thu 70 71 W 3 3504 3439 1889 Blue 10
11 AM Thu 73 80 W 8 3832 3694 2144 Blue 19
12 Noon Thu 75 83 W 8 3991 3827 2277 Blue 22
1 PM Thu 75 83 W 8 3991 3827 2277 Blue 22
2 PM Thu 74 82 W 12 3938 3774 2224 Blue 21
3 PM Thu 73 79 W 12 3779 3658 2108 Blue 18
4 PM Thu 72 76 W 12 3662 3553 2003 Blue 15
5 PM Thu 71 73 W 10 3556 3481 1931 Blue 12
6 PM Thu 70 71 W 10 3504 3439 1889 Blue 10
7 PM Thu 67 67 W 10 2739 2739 1189 White 7
8 PM Thu 64 64 W 7 2049 2049 499 White 4
9 PM Thu 62 62 W 7 1607 1550 0 White 0
10 PM Thu 62 62 W 7 1607 1550 0 White 0
11 PM Thu 62 62 W 3 1607 1550 0 White 0
12 Midnight Fri 62 62 W 3 1607 1550 0 White 0
1 AM Fri 61 61 W 3 1386 1550 0 White 0
2 AM Fri 61 61 W 3 1386 1550 0 White 0
3 AM Fri 61 61 W 3 1386 1550 0 White 0
4 AM Fri 62 62 W 3 1607 1550 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst