Detailed Predictions for: Otay Mesa
Launch Altitude (f): 1550
LZ Altitude (f): 600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

17 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 54 54 NE 2 686 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 55 NE 2 686 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 55 55 E 2 686 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 54 54 E 5 686 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 56 56 NE 5 686 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 62 62 NE 2 686 1550 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 67 68 NW 3 1315 1550 0 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 72 74 NW 3 2358 1874 324 Blue 8
12 Noon Wed 75 77 NW 3 2946 2347 797 Blue 11
1 PM Wed 75 77 NW 7 2946 2347 797 Blue 11
2 PM Wed 75 76 NW 7 2768 2161 611 Blue 10
3 PM Wed 74 74 NW 7 2358 1874 324 Blue 8
4 PM Wed 71 71 NW 7 1885 1550 0 Blue 5
5 PM Wed 66 66 NW 5 897 1550 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 62 62 NW 3 686 1550 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 61 61 E 2 686 1550 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 61 61 E 5 686 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 61 61 E 5 686 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 60 60 E 7 686 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 59 59 NE 6 686 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 59 59 NE 5 686 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 58 58 NE 5 686 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 57 57 NE 5 686 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 57 57 NE 6 686 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 56 56 NE 6 686 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 57 57 E 5 686 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 56 56 E 6 686 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 56 56 E 8 686 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 58 58 E 9 686 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 62 63 E 5 686 1550 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 67 68 W 2 1315 1550 0 Blue 2
11 AM Thu 71 73 W 3 2166 1625 75 Blue 7
12 Noon Thu 73 75 W 3 2566 2052 502 Blue 9
1 PM Thu 73 75 W 7 2566 2052 502 Blue 9
2 PM Thu 73 74 W 7 2358 1874 324 Blue 8
3 PM Thu 72 72 W 7 2056 1550 0 Blue 6
4 PM Thu 69 69 W 5 1479 1550 0 Blue 3
5 PM Thu 64 64 NW 5 751 1550 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 60 60 NW 3 686 1550 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 58 58 NW 2 686 1550 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 58 58 NW 2 686 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 58 58 NW 2 686 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 57 57 NW 2 686 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 56 56 NW 2 686 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 56 56 NW 2 686 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 55 55 NW 2 686 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 54 54 NW 2 686 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 54 54 N 2 686 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 53 53 N 2 686 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 53 53 NW 1 686 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 53 53 SE 2 686 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 53 53 SE 3 686 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 54 54 SE 2 686 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 56 56 W 2 686 1550 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 57 57 W 8 686 1550 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 59 59 W 9 686 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 60 60 W 9 686 1550 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 59 59 W 15 686 1550 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 60 60 W 15 686 1550 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 59 59 W 14 686 1550 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 58 58 W 10 686 1550 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 55 55 W 10 686 1550 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 52 52 W 10 686 1550 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 52 52 W 12 686 1550 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 52 52 W 12 686 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 52 52 W 12 686 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 51 51 W 12 686 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 51 51 W 12 686 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 50 50 W 12 686 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 50 50 W 12 686 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 50 50 NW 14 686 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 49 49 NW 14 686 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 49 49 NW 9 686 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 50 50 NW 9 686 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 49 49 NW 9 686 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 49 49 N 6 686 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 50 50 N 6 686 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 52 52 N 6 686 1550 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 54 56 NW 8 686 1550 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 56 58 NW 8 686 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 58 60 NW 8 686 1550 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 58 60 W 9 686 1550 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 58 59 W 9 686 1550 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 57 58 W 9 686 1550 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 55 55 NW 12 686 1550 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 52 52 NW 12 686 1550 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 49 49 NW 12 686 1550 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 48 48 N 7 686 1550 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 48 48 N 7 686 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 48 48 N 7 686 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 48 48 NE 6 686 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 47 47 NE 6 686 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 47 47 NE 6 686 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 46 46 E 6 686 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 46 46 E 6 686 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 46 46 E 6 686 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 45 45 E 7 686 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 46 46 E 7 686 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 46 46 E 7 686 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 45 45 E 8 686 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 47 47 E 8 686 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 52 53 E 8 686 1550 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 56 57 S 2 686 1550 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 60 62 S 2 686 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 62 64 S 2 751 1550 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 63 65 W 6 819 1550 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 62 63 W 6 686 1550 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 61 61 W 6 686 1550 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 59 59 W 8 686 1550 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 55 55 W 8 686 1550 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 51 51 W 8 686 1550 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 50 50 NW 6 686 1550 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 50 50 NW 6 686 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 50 50 NW 6 686 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 49 49 N 6 686 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 49 49 N 6 686 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 48 48 N 6 686 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 47 47 NE 6 686 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 47 47 NE 6 686 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 47 47 NE 6 686 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 46 46 NE 3 686 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 47 47 NE 3 686 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 46 46 NE 3 686 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 46 46 N 3 686 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 48 48 N 3 686 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 53 53 N 3 686 1550 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 57 58 NW 6 686 1550 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 62 64 NW 6 751 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 64 66 NW 6 897 1550 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 65 67 NW 9 1106 1550 0 Blue 1
2 PM Mon 65 66 NW 9 897 1550 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 63 63 NW 9 686 1550 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 61 61 NW 10 686 1550 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 57 57 NW 10 686 1550 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 54 54 NW 10 686 1550 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 53 53 NW 7 686 1550 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 53 53 NW 7 686 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 53 53 NW 7 686 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 52 52 N 5 686 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 52 52 N 5 686 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 51 51 N 5 686 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 50 50 N 3 686 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 50 50 N 3 686 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 50 50 N 3 686 1550 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst