Detailed Predictions for: Otay Mesa
Launch Altitude (f): 1550
LZ Altitude (f): 600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

19 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sun 49 49 NE 2 663 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 48 48 NE 2 663 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 48 48 NE 2 663 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 50 50 NE 2 663 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 54 54 N 3 663 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 60 61 NW 5 663 1550 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 66 68 W 6 1215 1550 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 70 73 NW 7 2160 1724 174 Blue 5
12 Noon Sun 72 75 NW 8 2652 2064 514 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 71 73 NW 9 2160 1724 174 Blue 5
2 PM Sun 71 72 NW 9 2068 1550 0 Blue 4
3 PM Sun 70 70 NW 8 1732 1550 0 Blue 2
4 PM Sun 68 68 NW 8 1215 1550 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 65 65 NW 7 974 1550 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 62 62 N 6 733 1550 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 60 60 NE 5 663 1550 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 58 58 NE 3 663 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 57 57 NE 3 663 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 57 57 NE 3 663 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 56 56 NE 3 663 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 55 55 E 2 663 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 54 54 E 2 663 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 54 54 E 2 663 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 54 54 E 2 663 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 54 54 E 2 663 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 55 55 E 2 663 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 56 56 E 2 663 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 58 58 E 2 663 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 62 62 NE 2 733 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 66 67 N 1 1135 1550 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 69 70 W 5 1732 1550 0 Blue 2
11 AM Mon 72 74 W 5 2403 1972 422 Blue 6
12 Noon Mon 73 75 W 6 2652 2064 514 Blue 7
1 PM Mon 72 74 W 8 2403 1972 422 Blue 6
2 PM Mon 72 73 W 8 2160 1724 174 Blue 5
3 PM Mon 70 70 W 8 1732 1550 0 Blue 2
4 PM Mon 67 67 NW 6 1135 1550 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 64 64 NW 5 894 1550 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 62 62 N 3 733 1550 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 60 60 NE 2 663 1550 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 60 60 NE 1 663 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 60 60 E 1 663 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 61 61 E 3 663 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 62 62 E 5 733 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 63 63 E 3 813 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 64 64 NE 3 894 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 63 63 N 3 813 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 61 61 NE 3 663 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 60 60 NE 2 663 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 59 59 E 3 663 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 60 60 NE 5 663 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 62 62 NE 5 733 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 67 67 NE 2 1135 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 72 73 NW 1 2160 1724 174 Blue 5
10 AM Tue 78 80 NW 5 5868 4293 2743 Blue 12
11 AM Tue 81 83 NW 7 6105 5715 4165 Blue 15
12 Noon Tue 83 85 NW 7 6250 6031 4481 Blue 17
1 PM Tue 82 84 NW 8 6168 5968 4418 Blue 16
2 PM Tue 82 83 NW 8 6105 5715 4165 Blue 15
3 PM Tue 79 79 NW 7 4871 3479 1929 Blue 11
4 PM Tue 75 75 NW 5 2652 2064 514 Blue 7
5 PM Tue 70 70 NW 5 1732 1550 0 Blue 2
6 PM Tue 66 66 NW 5 1055 1550 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 62 62 N 3 733 1550 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 60 60 N 3 663 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 59 59 N 2 663 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 59 59 N 2 663 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 58 58 NE 1 663 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 58 58 E 1 663 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 57 57 E 2 663 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 57 57 NE 2 663 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 57 57 NE 1 663 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 58 58 E 5 663 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 59 59 E 5 663 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 61 61 E 5 663 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 65 65 E 7 974 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 71 71 E 7 1976 1550 0 Blue 3
9 AM Wed 78 79 E 7 4871 3479 1929 Blue 11
10 AM Wed 84 86 N 2 6338 6094 4544 Blue 18
11 AM Wed 88 91 N 2 8110 6557 5007 Blue 23
12 Noon Wed 89 92 N 2 8388 6914 5364 Blue 24
1 PM Wed 89 91 NW 6 8110 6557 5007 Blue 23
2 PM Wed 88 90 NW 6 7626 6421 4871 Blue 22
3 PM Wed 85 85 NW 6 6250 6031 4481 Blue 17
4 PM Wed 81 81 NW 5 5978 4596 3046 Blue 13
5 PM Wed 75 75 NW 5 2652 2064 514 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 68 68 NW 5 1215 1550 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 63 63 E 2 813 1550 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 61 61 E 2 663 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 61 61 E 2 663 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 60 60 NE 3 663 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 60 60 NE 3 663 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 59 59 NE 3 663 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 58 58 E 3 663 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 58 58 E 3 663 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 59 59 E 3 663 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 59 59 NE 5 663 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 59 59 NE 5 663 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 60 60 NE 5 663 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 64 64 NE 6 894 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 70 70 NE 6 1732 1550 0 Blue 2
9 AM Thu 78 79 NE 6 4871 3479 1929 Blue 11
10 AM Thu 85 87 N 2 6446 6157 4607 Blue 19
11 AM Thu 87 90 N 2 7626 6421 4871 Blue 22
12 Noon Thu 86 89 N 2 7035 6322 4772 Blue 21
1 PM Thu 84 86 W 9 6338 6094 4544 Blue 18
2 PM Thu 82 84 W 9 6168 5968 4418 Blue 16
3 PM Thu 80 80 W 9 5868 4293 2743 Blue 12
4 PM Thu 77 77 NW 5 4383 2390 840 Blue 9
5 PM Thu 73 73 NW 5 2160 1724 174 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 68 68 NW 5 1215 1550 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 65 65 NE 5 974 1550 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 62 62 NE 5 733 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 62 62 NE 5 733 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 61 61 E 5 663 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 61 61 E 5 663 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 61 61 E 5 663 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 60 60 E 6 663 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 59 59 E 6 663 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 57 57 E 6 663 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 57 57 E 5 663 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 58 58 E 5 663 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 60 60 E 5 663 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 63 63 E 8 813 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 67 67 E 8 1135 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 72 73 E 8 2160 1724 174 Blue 5
10 AM Fri 76 78 SW 3 4626 2638 1088 Blue 10
11 AM Fri 78 81 SW 3 5978 4596 3046 Blue 13
12 Noon Fri 80 83 SW 3 6105 5715 4165 Blue 15
1 PM Fri 81 83 W 8 6105 5715 4165 Blue 15
2 PM Fri 81 82 W 8 6042 4836 3286 Blue 14
3 PM Fri 80 80 W 8 5868 4293 2743 Blue 12
4 PM Fri 77 77 W 3 4383 2390 840 Blue 9
5 PM Fri 73 73 W 3 2160 1724 174 Blue 5
6 PM Fri 68 68 W 3 1215 1550 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 64 64 NE 1 894 1550 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 61 61 NE 1 663 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 60 60 NE 1 663 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 59 59 E 5 663 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 58 58 E 5 663 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 58 58 E 5 663 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 58 58 E 6 663 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 58 58 E 6 663 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 58 58 E 6 663 1550 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst