Detailed Predictions for: Otay Mesa
Launch Altitude (f): 1550
LZ Altitude (f): 600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

26 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 52 52 N 3 630 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 52 52 N 3 630 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 52 52 NE 3 630 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 54 54 N 1 813 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 58 59 NW 2 1415 1550 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 62 64 NW 3 2022 1624 74 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 66 68 NW 8 2697 2182 632 Blue 9
12 Noon Tue 68 71 NW 9 2944 2687 1137 Blue 12
1 PM Tue 70 73 W 9 3045 2884 1334 Blue 14
2 PM Tue 69 72 W 10 2999 2828 1278 Blue 13
3 PM Tue 70 72 W 12 2999 2828 1278 Blue 13
4 PM Tue 68 69 W 12 2832 2349 799 Blue 10
5 PM Tue 67 67 W 10 2524 2015 465 Blue 8
6 PM Tue 65 65 NW 9 2189 1674 124 Blue 6
7 PM Tue 61 61 NW 8 1626 1550 0 Blue 2
8 PM Tue 58 58 NW 5 1243 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 57 57 NW 5 1135 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 56 56 NW 5 1028 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 55 55 N 3 920 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 54 54 N 5 813 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 53 53 N 5 705 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 52 52 N 3 630 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 52 52 N 5 630 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 51 51 N 3 630 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 51 51 N 3 630 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 51 51 N 3 630 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 51 51 N 3 630 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 52 52 N 3 630 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 56 57 N 5 1135 1550 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 60 61 NW 6 1626 1550 0 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 63 65 NW 8 2189 1674 124 Blue 6
12 Noon Wed 65 68 NW 9 2697 2182 632 Blue 9
1 PM Wed 66 69 W 10 2832 2349 799 Blue 10
2 PM Wed 65 68 W 12 2697 2182 632 Blue 9
3 PM Wed 66 68 W 12 2697 2182 632 Blue 9
4 PM Wed 65 66 W 13 2357 1723 173 Blue 7
5 PM Wed 64 64 W 12 2022 1624 74 Blue 5
6 PM Wed 63 63 NW 10 1725 1575 25 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 60 60 NW 8 1576 1550 0 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 58 58 NW 7 1243 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 58 58 NW 6 1243 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 57 57 N 6 1135 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 56 56 N 6 1028 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 56 56 N 6 1028 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 55 55 N 6 920 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 55 N 6 920 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 54 54 N 6 813 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 54 54 N 5 813 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 54 54 N 5 813 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 54 54 N 3 813 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 54 54 N 2 813 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 55 55 N 2 920 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 57 57 NW 5 1135 1550 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 59 60 NW 7 1576 1550 0 Blue 1
11 AM Thu 61 64 NW 10 2022 1624 74 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 62 66 NW 12 2357 1723 173 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 63 67 NW 14 2524 2015 465 Blue 8
2 PM Thu 62 66 W 14 2357 1723 173 Blue 7
3 PM Thu 63 66 W 14 2357 1723 173 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 62 64 W 14 2022 1624 74 Blue 5
5 PM Thu 61 62 W 13 1675 1550 0 Blue 3
6 PM Thu 59 59 NW 12 1415 1550 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 56 56 NW 9 1028 1550 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 54 54 NW 7 813 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 53 53 N 6 705 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 53 53 N 6 705 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 52 52 NE 5 630 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 51 51 N 3 630 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 50 50 N 3 630 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 50 50 N 2 630 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 49 49 N 3 630 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 49 49 NE 3 630 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 49 49 NE 5 630 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 49 49 NE 5 630 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 49 49 NE 5 630 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 51 51 N 5 630 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 56 57 N 5 1135 1550 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 59 62 N 5 1675 1550 0 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 63 67 NW 9 2524 2015 465 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 65 70 NW 9 2888 2515 965 Blue 11
1 PM Fri 67 73 NW 9 3045 2884 1334 Blue 14
2 PM Fri 67 72 W 13 2999 2828 1278 Blue 13
3 PM Fri 67 71 W 13 2944 2687 1137 Blue 12
4 PM Fri 65 67 W 13 2524 2015 465 Blue 8
5 PM Fri 65 66 W 12 2357 1723 173 Blue 7
6 PM Fri 63 63 W 12 1725 1575 25 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 60 60 W 12 1576 1550 0 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 58 58 NW 6 1243 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 56 56 NW 6 1028 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 56 56 NW 6 1028 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 55 55 S 2 920 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 54 54 S 2 813 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 53 53 S 2 705 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 53 53 SE 5 705 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 52 52 SE 5 630 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 52 52 SE 5 630 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 52 52 E 7 630 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 52 52 E 7 630 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 52 52 E 7 630 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 54 54 E 6 813 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 58 59 E 6 1415 1550 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 62 65 E 6 2189 1674 124 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 65 70 W 6 2888 2515 965 Blue 11
12 Noon Sat 68 74 W 6 3104 2940 1390 Blue 15
1 PM Sat 69 75 W 6 3235 2995 1445 Blue 16
2 PM Sat 69 74 W 10 3104 2940 1390 Blue 15
3 PM Sat 68 72 W 10 2999 2828 1278 Blue 13
4 PM Sat 67 69 W 10 2832 2349 799 Blue 10
5 PM Sat 66 67 NW 10 2524 2015 465 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 64 64 NW 10 2022 1624 74 Blue 5
7 PM Sat 61 61 NW 10 1626 1550 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 58 58 N 5 1243 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 57 57 N 5 1135 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 56 56 N 5 1028 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 55 55 NE 3 920 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 54 54 NE 3 813 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 54 54 NE 3 813 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 53 53 N 7 705 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 52 52 N 7 630 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 52 52 N 7 630 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 52 52 NE 10 630 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 52 52 NE 10 630 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 52 52 NE 10 630 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 54 54 NE 13 813 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 61 63 NE 13 1725 1575 25 Blue 4
10 AM Sun 66 69 NE 13 2832 2349 799 Blue 10
11 AM Sun 71 76 W 12 3685 3042 1492 Blue 17
12 Noon Sun 74 80 W 12 5716 4168 2618 Blue 21
1 PM Sun 76 82 W 12 6309 5244 3694 Blue 23
2 PM Sun 76 82 W 10 6309 5244 3694 Blue 23
3 PM Sun 75 79 W 10 5332 3635 2085 Blue 20
4 PM Sun 74 77 W 10 4227 3094 1544 Blue 18
5 PM Sun 72 73 W 10 3045 2884 1334 Blue 14
6 PM Sun 70 70 W 10 2888 2515 965 Blue 11
7 PM Sun 65 65 W 10 2189 1674 124 Blue 6
8 PM Sun 62 62 N 6 1675 1550 0 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 60 60 N 6 1576 1550 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 59 59 N 6 1415 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 58 58 NE 3 1243 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 56 56 NE 3 1028 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 55 55 NE 3 920 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 54 54 E 7 813 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 54 54 E 7 813 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 53 53 E 7 705 1550 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst