Detailed Predictions for: Otay Mesa
Launch Altitude (f): 1550
LZ Altitude (f): 600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Tue 59 59 E 26 787 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 59 59 E 28 787 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 58 58 E 29 787 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 59 59 E 31 787 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 61 61 E 32 787 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 64 65 E 35 2212 1550 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 67 69 E 35 4344 2799 1249 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 69 72 E 33 4500 4334 2784 Blue 6
12 Noon Tue 71 74 E 32 4563 4465 2915 Blue 8
1 PM Tue 72 74 E 29 4563 4465 2915 Blue 8
2 PM Tue 71 72 E 26 4500 4334 2784 Blue 6
3 PM Tue 71 71 E 24 4469 3896 2346 Blue 5
4 PM Tue 70 70 E 18 4430 3358 1808 Blue 4
5 PM Tue 67 67 E 15 3405 1550 0 Blue 1
6 PM Tue 64 64 E 16 1556 1550 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 61 61 E 15 787 1550 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 59 59 E 17 787 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 58 58 E 18 787 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 58 58 E 17 787 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 60 60 E 20 787 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 61 61 E 20 787 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 62 62 E 21 787 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 62 62 E 22 787 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 62 62 E 22 787 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 62 62 E 22 787 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 61 61 E 23 787 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 61 61 E 23 787 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 62 62 E 23 787 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 65 65 E 23 2212 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 68 69 E 21 4344 2799 1249 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 72 74 E 20 4563 4465 2915 Blue 8
11 AM Wed 75 78 E 17 5303 4591 3041 Blue 12
12 Noon Wed 76 79 E 16 5669 4653 3103 Blue 13
1 PM Wed 76 78 E 14 5303 4591 3041 Blue 12
2 PM Wed 77 78 E 13 5303 4591 3041 Blue 12
3 PM Wed 76 76 E 10 4662 4528 2978 Blue 10
4 PM Wed 73 73 NE 9 4532 4420 2870 Blue 7
5 PM Wed 69 69 E 9 4344 2799 1249 Blue 3
6 PM Wed 66 66 E 10 2839 1550 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 63 63 E 12 869 1550 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 62 62 E 12 787 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 62 62 E 13 787 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 62 62 E 12 787 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 61 61 E 12 787 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 60 60 E 10 787 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 59 59 E 9 787 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 58 58 E 9 787 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 58 58 E 9 787 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 58 E 10 787 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 57 57 E 12 787 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 57 57 E 12 787 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 60 60 E 13 787 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 64 64 E 10 1556 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 70 71 NE 7 4469 3896 2346 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 75 77 NE 6 4914 4559 3009 Blue 11
11 AM Thu 78 81 NE 6 5820 5247 3697 Blue 15
12 Noon Thu 77 80 NW 7 5745 4861 3311 Blue 14
1 PM Thu 76 79 W 8 5669 4653 3103 Blue 13
2 PM Thu 74 76 W 8 4662 4528 2978 Blue 10
3 PM Thu 70 71 NW 8 4469 3896 2346 Blue 5
4 PM Thu 66 66 NW 8 2839 1550 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 62 62 NW 6 787 1550 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 59 59 N 5 787 1550 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 57 57 NE 2 787 1550 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 55 55 NE 2 787 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 55 55 E 2 787 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 55 55 E 3 787 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 55 55 E 3 787 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 54 54 NE 3 787 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 54 54 NE 2 787 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 54 54 NE 3 787 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 53 53 NE 3 787 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 53 53 N 3 787 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 52 52 N 3 787 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 52 52 N 3 787 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 54 54 E 5 787 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 58 58 E 5 787 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 64 65 E 5 2212 1550 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 68 70 SW 6 4430 3358 1808 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 71 73 SW 6 4532 4420 2870 Blue 7
12 Noon Fri 72 74 SW 6 4563 4465 2915 Blue 8
1 PM Fri 72 74 W 10 4563 4465 2915 Blue 8
2 PM Fri 71 72 W 10 4500 4334 2784 Blue 6
3 PM Fri 70 70 W 10 4430 3358 1808 Blue 4
4 PM Fri 68 68 W 8 3950 2183 633 Blue 2
5 PM Fri 64 64 W 8 1556 1550 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 61 61 W 8 787 1550 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 58 58 NW 0 787 1550 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 57 57 NW 0 787 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 56 56 NW 0 787 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 56 56 E 3 787 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 55 55 E 3 787 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 54 54 E 3 787 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 53 53 E 5 787 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 53 53 E 5 787 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 54 54 E 5 787 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 55 55 E 3 787 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 56 56 E 3 787 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 56 56 E 3 787 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 58 58 E 2 787 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 61 61 E 2 787 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 64 65 E 2 2212 1550 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 67 69 SW 5 4344 2799 1249 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 70 72 SW 5 4500 4334 2784 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 71 74 SW 5 4563 4465 2915 Blue 8
1 PM Sat 71 73 W 9 4532 4420 2870 Blue 7
2 PM Sat 70 71 W 9 4469 3896 2346 Blue 5
3 PM Sat 68 68 W 9 3950 2183 633 Blue 2
4 PM Sat 66 66 W 7 2839 1550 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 63 63 W 7 869 1550 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 59 59 W 7 787 1550 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 57 57 N 2 787 1550 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 55 55 N 2 787 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 55 55 N 2 787 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 55 55 NE 2 787 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 55 55 NE 2 787 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 55 55 NE 2 787 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 55 55 E 3 787 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 54 54 E 3 787 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 54 54 E 3 787 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 54 54 E 2 787 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 54 54 E 2 787 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 55 55 E 2 787 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 57 57 NE 1 787 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 60 60 NE 1 787 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 63 64 NE 1 1556 1550 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 66 68 W 3 3950 2183 633 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 70 72 W 3 4500 4334 2784 Blue 6
12 Noon Sun 72 74 W 3 4563 4465 2915 Blue 8
1 PM Sun 73 75 W 6 4595 4497 2947 Blue 9
2 PM Sun 72 73 W 6 4532 4420 2870 Blue 7
3 PM Sun 70 70 W 6 4430 3358 1808 Blue 4
4 PM Sun 66 66 W 7 2839 1550 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 62 62 W 7 787 1550 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 59 59 W 7 787 1550 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 56 56 NW 3 787 1550 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 55 55 NW 3 787 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 55 55 NW 3 787 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 55 55 NE 2 787 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 55 55 NE 2 787 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 55 55 NE 2 787 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 55 55 E 3 787 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 56 56 E 3 787 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 57 57 E 3 787 1550 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst