Detailed Predictions for: Otay Mesa
Launch Altitude (f): 1550
LZ Altitude (f): 600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

25 NOV 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 50 50 E 3 568 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 49 49 E 3 568 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 48 48 E 3 568 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 49 49 E 3 568 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 52 52 SE 2 568 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 57 58 S 3 568 1550 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 61 63 SW 3 2550 1550 0 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 64 67 SW 5 3300 2864 1314 Blue 6
12 Noon Wed 65 68 W 7 3318 3185 1635 Blue 7
1 PM Wed 64 66 W 8 3282 2530 980 Blue 5
2 PM Wed 64 65 W 8 3199 2179 629 Blue 4
3 PM Wed 63 63 W 8 2550 1550 0 Blue 2
4 PM Wed 61 61 W 7 1459 1550 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 59 59 NW 5 568 1550 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 57 57 NW 3 568 1550 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 55 55 N 2 568 1550 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 53 53 N 2 568 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 53 53 E 2 568 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 53 53 E 2 568 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 53 53 E 1 568 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 53 53 SE 1 568 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 53 53 SE 1 568 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 52 52 SE 2 568 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 50 50 SE 3 568 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 48 48 SE 5 568 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 47 47 SE 3 568 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 47 47 SE 2 568 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 48 48 E 2 568 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 51 51 SE 1 568 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 54 55 SW 2 568 1550 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 58 60 W 2 568 1550 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 61 63 W 5 2550 1550 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Thu 64 66 W 7 3282 2530 980 Blue 5
1 PM Thu 64 66 NW 8 3282 2530 980 Blue 5
2 PM Thu 65 66 NW 7 3282 2530 980 Blue 5
3 PM Thu 64 64 NW 6 2886 1550 0 Blue 3
4 PM Thu 61 61 N 6 1459 1550 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 58 58 N 6 568 1550 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 55 55 NE 7 568 1550 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 53 53 E 9 568 1550 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 53 53 E 12 568 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 55 55 E 14 568 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 56 56 E 15 568 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 56 56 E 13 568 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 54 54 E 9 568 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 52 52 E 7 568 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 50 50 NE 7 568 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 48 NE 8 568 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 48 48 NE 9 568 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 50 50 NE 10 568 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 53 53 NE 13 568 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 57 57 E 13 568 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 60 60 NE 9 568 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 64 65 NE 6 3199 2179 629 Blue 4
10 AM Fri 67 69 N 3 3335 3280 1730 Blue 8
11 AM Fri 69 72 N 3 3552 3334 1784 Blue 11
12 Noon Fri 70 73 N 5 3697 3352 1802 Blue 12
1 PM Fri 70 72 N 6 3552 3334 1784 Blue 11
2 PM Fri 70 71 NW 6 3407 3316 1766 Blue 10
3 PM Fri 70 70 NW 6 3353 3298 1748 Blue 9
4 PM Fri 67 67 NW 6 3300 2864 1314 Blue 6
5 PM Fri 62 62 N 5 2195 1550 0 Blue 1
6 PM Fri 57 57 N 5 568 1550 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 52 52 NE 5 568 1550 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 49 49 NE 5 568 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 48 48 NE 5 568 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 48 48 NE 5 568 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 49 49 NE 6 568 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 50 50 E 7 568 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 50 50 E 8 568 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 50 50 E 8 568 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 50 50 NE 8 568 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 49 49 NE 8 568 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 49 49 NE 8 568 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 50 50 NE 8 568 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 53 53 E 8 568 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 59 59 E 8 568 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 66 67 E 8 3300 2864 1314 Blue 6
10 AM Sat 72 74 N 5 3842 3395 1845 Blue 13
11 AM Sat 75 78 N 5 6968 3972 2422 Blue 17
12 Noon Sat 74 77 N 5 5906 3828 2278 Blue 16
1 PM Sat 74 76 N 7 4770 3683 2133 Blue 15
2 PM Sat 74 75 N 7 4017 3539 1989 Blue 14
3 PM Sat 74 74 N 7 3842 3395 1845 Blue 13
4 PM Sat 72 72 NW 7 3552 3334 1784 Blue 11
5 PM Sat 67 67 NW 7 3300 2864 1314 Blue 6
6 PM Sat 61 61 NW 7 1459 1550 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 57 57 NE 3 568 1550 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 55 55 NE 3 568 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 54 54 NE 3 568 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 54 54 E 5 568 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 54 54 E 5 568 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 53 53 E 5 568 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 52 52 N 6 568 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 51 51 N 6 568 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 50 50 N 6 568 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 49 49 NE 9 568 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 49 49 NE 9 568 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 50 50 NE 9 568 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 53 53 NE 5 568 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 58 58 NE 5 568 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 65 66 NE 5 3282 2530 980 Blue 5
10 AM Sun 71 73 W 5 3697 3352 1802 Blue 12
11 AM Sun 74 76 W 5 4770 3683 2133 Blue 15
12 Noon Sun 74 76 W 5 4770 3683 2133 Blue 15
1 PM Sun 74 76 W 9 4770 3683 2133 Blue 15
2 PM Sun 73 74 W 9 3842 3395 1845 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 71 71 W 9 3407 3316 1766 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 67 67 W 7 3300 2864 1314 Blue 6
5 PM Sun 62 62 W 7 2195 1550 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sun 58 58 W 7 568 1550 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 55 55 NE 3 568 1550 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 54 54 NE 3 568 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 55 55 NE 3 568 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 56 56 E 2 568 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 54 54 E 2 568 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 52 52 E 2 568 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 50 50 NE 5 568 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 50 50 NE 5 568 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 51 51 NE 5 568 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 52 52 NE 10 568 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 52 52 NE 10 568 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 52 52 NE 10 568 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 54 54 NE 5 568 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 59 59 NE 5 568 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 65 65 NE 5 3199 2179 629 Blue 4
10 AM Mon 70 71 NW 6 3407 3316 1766 Blue 10
11 AM Mon 73 74 NW 6 3842 3395 1845 Blue 13
12 Noon Mon 73 74 NW 6 3842 3395 1845 Blue 13
1 PM Mon 74 75 W 9 4017 3539 1989 Blue 14
2 PM Mon 73 74 W 9 3842 3395 1845 Blue 13
3 PM Mon 72 72 W 9 3552 3334 1784 Blue 11
4 PM Mon 70 70 W 7 3353 3298 1748 Blue 9
5 PM Mon 65 65 W 7 3199 2179 629 Blue 4
6 PM Mon 61 61 W 7 1459 1550 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 57 57 NW 3 568 1550 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 55 55 NW 3 568 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 54 54 NW 3 568 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 54 54 NE 2 568 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 53 53 NE 2 568 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 52 52 NE 2 568 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 51 51 E 3 568 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 50 50 E 3 568 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 50 50 E 3 568 1550 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst