Detailed Predictions for: Otay Mesa
Launch Altitude (f): 1550
LZ Altitude (f): 600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

22 MAY 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 52 52 SW 1 551 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 52 52 SW 0 551 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 52 52 NW 1 551 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 54 54 W 2 551 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 57 57 SW 3 2848 1550 0 White 1
10 AM Tue 60 60 SW 3 3493 3023 1473 White 4
11 AM Tue 63 67 W 5 4750 4698 3148 Blue 11
12 Noon Tue 65 69 W 7 4786 4731 3181 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 65 70 W 7 4804 4748 3198 Blue 14
2 PM Tue 66 70 W 9 4804 4748 3198 Blue 14
3 PM Tue 65 68 W 9 4767 4715 3165 Blue 12
4 PM Tue 64 66 W 9 4734 4682 3132 Blue 10
5 PM Tue 63 63 W 9 4136 4136 2586 White 7
6 PM Tue 61 61 W 8 3708 3708 2158 White 5
7 PM Tue 59 59 W 8 3279 1550 0 White 3
8 PM Tue 56 56 W 6 1604 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 55 55 W 6 551 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 54 54 W 5 551 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 54 54 W 3 551 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 54 54 SW 3 551 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 54 54 W 3 551 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 54 54 W 2 551 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 53 53 W 2 551 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 53 53 W 2 551 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 53 53 W 2 551 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 53 53 SW 2 551 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 54 54 SW 2 551 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 55 55 W 2 551 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 58 58 W 2 3063 1550 0 White 2
10 AM Wed 61 61 W 3 3708 3708 2158 White 5
11 AM Wed 64 68 W 7 4767 4715 3165 Blue 12
12 Noon Wed 66 71 W 8 4823 4765 3215 Blue 15
1 PM Wed 66 71 W 8 4823 4765 3215 Blue 15
2 PM Wed 67 71 W 10 4823 4765 3215 Blue 15
3 PM Wed 66 69 W 10 4786 4731 3181 Blue 13
4 PM Wed 65 67 W 10 4750 4698 3148 Blue 11
5 PM Wed 64 65 W 9 4563 4563 3013 White 9
6 PM Wed 62 62 W 9 3922 3922 2372 White 6
7 PM Wed 60 60 W 8 3493 3023 1473 White 4
8 PM Wed 57 57 W 7 2848 1550 0 White 1
9 PM Wed 56 56 W 6 1604 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 56 56 W 6 1604 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 55 55 W 5 551 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 55 55 W 5 551 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 54 54 W 3 551 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 54 54 W 3 551 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 54 54 W 3 551 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 54 54 W 2 551 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 54 54 W 2 551 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 54 54 W 2 551 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 54 54 W 3 551 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 56 56 W 3 1604 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 58 58 W 5 3063 1550 0 White 2
10 AM Thu 61 61 W 5 3708 3708 2158 White 5
11 AM Thu 64 69 W 7 4786 4731 3181 Blue 13
12 Noon Thu 66 72 W 8 4939 4783 3233 Blue 16
1 PM Thu 66 72 W 8 4939 4783 3233 Blue 16
2 PM Thu 67 72 W 10 4939 4783 3233 Blue 16
3 PM Thu 66 70 W 12 4804 4748 3198 Blue 14
4 PM Thu 65 68 W 12 4767 4715 3165 Blue 12
5 PM Thu 64 65 W 10 4563 4563 3013 White 9
6 PM Thu 62 62 W 10 3922 3922 2372 White 6
7 PM Thu 59 59 W 9 3279 1550 0 White 3
8 PM Thu 56 56 W 8 1604 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 55 55 W 7 551 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 55 55 W 8 551 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 54 54 NW 7 551 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 54 54 NW 7 551 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 54 54 NW 6 551 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 54 54 NW 6 551 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 53 53 NW 6 551 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 53 53 NW 5 551 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 53 53 N 3 551 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 53 53 N 3 551 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 54 54 N 3 551 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 56 56 N 6 1604 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 58 58 N 6 3063 1550 0 White 2
10 AM Fri 61 61 N 6 3708 3708 2158 White 5
11 AM Fri 65 71 NW 10 4823 4765 3215 Blue 15
12 Noon Fri 67 74 NW 10 5311 4820 3270 Blue 17
1 PM Fri 68 75 NW 10 5771 4923 3373 Blue 18
2 PM Fri 68 74 W 15 5311 4820 3270 Blue 17
3 PM Fri 67 72 W 15 4939 4783 3233 Blue 16
4 PM Fri 66 69 W 15 4786 4731 3181 Blue 13
5 PM Fri 65 67 W 14 4750 4698 3148 Blue 11
6 PM Fri 63 63 W 14 4136 4136 2586 White 7
7 PM Fri 60 60 W 14 3493 3023 1473 White 4
8 PM Fri 58 58 NW 12 3063 1550 0 White 2
9 PM Fri 56 56 NW 12 1604 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 56 56 NW 12 1604 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 55 55 NW 7 551 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 55 55 NW 7 551 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 55 55 NW 7 551 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 54 54 N 3 551 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 54 54 N 3 551 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 54 54 N 3 551 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 54 54 N 3 551 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 54 54 N 3 551 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 54 54 N 3 551 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 56 56 SW 3 1604 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 58 58 SW 3 3063 1550 0 White 2
10 AM Sat 61 62 SW 3 3922 3922 2372 White 6
11 AM Sat 63 69 W 8 4786 4731 3181 Blue 13
12 Noon Sat 65 72 W 8 4939 4783 3233 Blue 16
1 PM Sat 66 73 W 8 5054 4802 3252 Blue 16
2 PM Sat 66 72 W 14 4939 4783 3233 Blue 16
3 PM Sat 65 70 W 14 4804 4748 3198 Blue 14
4 PM Sat 64 67 W 14 4750 4698 3148 Blue 11
5 PM Sat 63 65 W 12 4563 4563 3013 White 9
6 PM Sat 61 61 W 12 3708 3708 2158 White 5
7 PM Sat 59 59 W 12 3279 1550 0 White 3
8 PM Sat 57 57 W 8 2848 1550 0 White 1
9 PM Sat 56 56 W 8 1604 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 55 55 W 8 551 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 55 55 W 2 551 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 55 55 W 2 551 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 54 54 W 2 551 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 54 54 SE 3 551 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 54 54 SE 3 551 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 54 54 SE 3 551 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 54 54 E 1 551 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 54 54 E 1 551 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 55 55 E 1 551 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 57 57 SW 2 2848 1550 0 White 1
9 AM Sun 59 60 SW 2 3493 3023 1473 White 4
10 AM Sun 63 64 SW 2 4349 4349 2799 White 8
11 AM Sun 66 72 W 8 4939 4783 3233 Blue 16
12 Noon Sun 69 75 W 8 5771 4923 3373 Blue 18
1 PM Sun 70 77 W 8 6369 5267 3717 Blue 20
2 PM Sun 70 76 W 12 6264 5038 3488 Blue 19
3 PM Sun 68 73 W 12 5054 4802 3252 Blue 16
4 PM Sun 67 70 W 12 4804 4748 3198 Blue 14
5 PM Sun 66 67 W 9 4750 4698 3148 Blue 11
6 PM Sun 64 64 W 9 4349 4349 2799 White 8
7 PM Sun 61 61 W 9 3708 3708 2158 White 5
8 PM Sun 58 58 NW 5 3063 1550 0 White 2
9 PM Sun 57 57 NW 5 2848 1550 0 White 1
10 PM Sun 56 56 NW 5 1604 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 55 55 NW 1 551 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 55 55 NW 1 551 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 55 55 NW 1 551 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 55 55 NW 1 551 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 54 54 NW 1 551 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 54 54 NW 1 551 1550 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst