Detailed Predictions for: Palomar
Launch Altitude (f): 3200
LZ Altitude (f): 925
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue -999 -1004 - 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue -999 -1004 - 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 55 50 NE 1 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 58 53 S 0 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 65 62 W 1 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 72 70 W 2 1404 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 79 79 W 7 2320 3200 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Tue 84 85 W 7 3840 3200 0 Blue 12
1 PM Tue 86 88 W 8 4620 3820 620 Blue 15
2 PM Tue 86 87 W 9 4361 3559 359 Blue 14
3 PM Tue 87 87 W 9 4361 3559 359 Blue 14
4 PM Tue 85 83 W 8 3314 3200 0 Blue 10
5 PM Tue 83 79 W 6 2320 3200 0 Blue 6
6 PM Tue 80 75 W 5 1984 3200 0 Blue 2
7 PM Tue 74 69 W 3 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 69 64 S 1 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 66 61 SE 1 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 64 59 SE 1 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 63 58 SE 1 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 62 57 SE 1 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 61 56 SE 1 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 60 55 E 1 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 60 55 E 1 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 60 55 E 1 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 59 54 NE 1 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 59 54 NE 1 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 59 54 NE 1 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 62 57 NW 0 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 67 64 W 1 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 73 71 W 3 1450 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 78 78 W 7 2254 3200 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 82 83 W 7 3314 3200 0 Blue 10
1 PM Wed 84 85 W 8 3840 3200 0 Blue 12
2 PM Wed 84 85 W 9 3840 3200 0 Blue 12
3 PM Wed 85 84 W 8 3577 3200 0 Blue 11
4 PM Wed 83 81 W 8 2782 3200 0 Blue 8
5 PM Wed 82 78 W 6 2254 3200 0 Blue 5
6 PM Wed 78 73 W 5 1542 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 73 68 NW 3 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 69 64 NE 3 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 66 61 NE 3 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 64 59 NE 3 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 63 58 E 2 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 62 57 E 2 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 61 56 E 3 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 60 55 E 5 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 60 55 E 5 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 60 55 E 5 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 59 54 E 5 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 59 54 E 6 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 59 54 E 7 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 62 57 SE 3 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 68 65 S 2 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 74 72 SW 3 1496 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 80 80 W 6 2453 3200 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Thu 85 86 W 7 4101 3298 98 Blue 13
1 PM Thu 87 88 W 7 4620 3820 620 Blue 15
2 PM Thu 87 87 W 8 4361 3559 359 Blue 14
3 PM Thu 88 87 W 8 4361 3559 359 Blue 14
4 PM Thu 86 83 W 8 3314 3200 0 Blue 10
5 PM Thu 84 80 W 6 2453 3200 0 Blue 7
6 PM Thu 81 76 W 5 2127 3200 0 Blue 3
7 PM Thu 75 70 W 2 1404 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 70 65 N 0 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 67 62 NE 2 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 65 60 NE 3 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 64 59 NE 2 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 63 58 E 1 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 62 57 E 2 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 61 56 SE 5 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 61 56 SE 5 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 61 56 E 3 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 60 55 E 2 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 60 55 E 2 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 60 55 E 2 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 63 58 SW 2 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 68 65 SW 2 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 74 72 SW 2 1496 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 79 79 W 8 2320 3200 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Fri 83 84 W 8 3577 3200 0 Blue 11
1 PM Fri 85 86 W 8 4101 3298 98 Blue 13
2 PM Fri 86 86 W 10 4101 3298 98 Blue 13
3 PM Fri 86 85 W 10 3840 3200 0 Blue 12
4 PM Fri 84 81 W 10 2782 3200 0 Blue 8
5 PM Fri 82 78 W 7 2254 3200 0 Blue 5
6 PM Fri 79 74 W 7 1736 3200 0 Blue 1
7 PM Fri 74 69 W 7 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 70 65 N 2 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 67 62 N 2 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 65 60 N 2 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 64 59 N 3 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 63 58 N 3 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 62 57 N 3 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 61 56 NE 5 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 61 56 NE 5 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 61 56 NE 5 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 60 55 NE 5 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 60 55 NE 5 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 60 55 NE 5 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 63 58 S 1 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 69 66 S 1 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 75 73 S 1 1542 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 81 81 W 7 2782 3200 0 Blue 8
12 Noon Sat 85 86 W 7 4101 3298 98 Blue 13
1 PM Sat 87 88 W 7 4620 3820 620 Blue 15
2 PM Sat 88 88 W 10 4620 3820 620 Blue 15
3 PM Sat 88 87 W 10 4361 3559 359 Blue 14
4 PM Sat 86 83 W 10 3314 3200 0 Blue 10
5 PM Sat 84 80 W 6 2453 3200 0 Blue 7
6 PM Sat 81 76 W 6 2127 3200 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 75 70 W 6 1404 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 70 65 NE 2 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 67 62 NE 2 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 65 60 NE 2 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 64 59 NE 5 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 63 58 NE 5 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 62 57 NE 5 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 61 56 NE 5 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 61 56 NE 5 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 61 56 NE 5 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 60 55 NE 6 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 60 55 NE 6 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 60 55 NE 6 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 63 58 NE 2 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 69 66 NE 2 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 75 73 NE 2 1542 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 81 81 W 8 2782 3200 0 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 85 86 W 8 4101 3298 98 Blue 13
1 PM Sun 87 88 W 8 4620 3820 620 Blue 15
2 PM Sun 88 89 W 10 4915 4079 879 Blue 16
3 PM Sun 88 87 W 10 4361 3559 359 Blue 14
4 PM Sun 86 84 W 10 3577 3200 0 Blue 11
5 PM Sun 84 80 W 6 2453 3200 0 Blue 7
6 PM Sun 81 76 W 6 2127 3200 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sun 74 69 W 6 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 70 65 N 3 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 67 62 N 3 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 65 60 N 3 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 63 58 NE 6 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 62 57 NE 6 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 61 56 NE 6 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 60 55 NE 8 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 60 55 NE 8 1378 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 60 55 NE 8 1378 3200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst