Detailed Predictions for: Palomar
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.329, -116.97225, 3200
LZ Altitude (f): 925
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

28 MAR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 51 46 SE 1 1 541 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 50 45 SE 1 1 541 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 49 44 SE 1 5 541 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 48 43 SE 1 1 541 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 48 43 SE 1 4 541 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 46 41 ESE 1 5 541 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 47 42 ESE 1 5 541 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 47 42 ESE 2 5 541 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 49 44 WSW 2 5 541 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 53 49 W 3 8 1264 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 56 53 W 4 9 2227 3200 0 White 2
11 AM Thu 59 59 W 5 11 2830 3200 0 Blue 8
12 Noon Thu 62 63 W 6 13 3374 3200 0 Blue 12
1 PM Thu 63 64 W 8 14 3842 3200 0 Blue 13
2 PM Thu 64 64 W 9 16 3842 3200 0 Blue 13
3 PM Thu 65 64 W 10 17 3842 3200 0 Blue 13
4 PM Thu 64 61 W 9 17 2924 3200 0 Blue 10
5 PM Thu 63 58 W 9 17 2799 3200 0 Blue 7
6 PM Thu 60 55 W 8 14 2681 3200 0 White 4
7 PM Thu 56 51 WSW 6 12 1787 3200 0 White 0
8 PM Thu 53 48 WSW 5 11 768 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 52 47 WSW 4 10 541 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 52 47 SSW 4 9 541 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 51 46 S 3 8 541 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 50 45 S 3 8 541 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 48 43 ESE 2 6 541 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 48 43 E 2 6 541 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 43 E 2 6 541 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 47 42 E 2 6 541 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 46 41 E 2 6 541 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 46 41 ESE 2 6 541 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 46 41 SSE 2 6 541 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 47 42 S 2 6 541 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 48 44 S 3 8 541 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 50 46 SSW 3 9 541 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 52 50 SSW 5 10 1565 3200 0 White 0
12 Noon Fri 54 53 SW 6 12 2227 3200 0 White 2
1 PM Fri 56 55 SW 9 16 2681 3200 0 White 4
2 PM Fri 57 56 SW 10 17 2736 3200 0 Blue 5
3 PM Fri 58 56 SW 11 19 2736 3200 0 Blue 5
4 PM Fri 57 54 SW 11 19 2319 3200 0 Blue 3
5 PM Fri 56 51 SW 11 19 1787 3200 0 White 0
6 PM Fri 54 49 SW 10 17 1264 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 51 46 SSW 8 14 541 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 49 44 SSW 6 12 541 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 48 43 S 5 11 541 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 47 42 S 5 11 541 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 47 42 SSE 5 11 541 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 47 42 SSE 6 12 541 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 47 42 SE 6 13 541 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 47 42 SE 8 14 541 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 47 42 SE 10 17 541 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 48 43 SE 11 19 541 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 48 43 SSE 13 21 541 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 48 43 SSE 16 25 541 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 48 43 SSE 18 28 541 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 48 43 SSE 19 31 541 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 48 43 SSE 18 28 541 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 48 43 S 16 25 541 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 48 43 S 13 23 541 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 48 43 S 12 20 541 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 48 43 SSW 11 19 541 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 48 43 SSW 11 19 541 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 48 43 SSW 11 20 541 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 48 43 SW 12 20 541 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 48 43 SW 12 20 541 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 47 42 SW 11 19 541 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 46 41 S 10 17 541 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 46 41 S 9 16 541 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 46 41 S 8 14 541 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 46 41 S 8 14 541 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 46 41 SSE 8 14 541 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 46 41 SSE 8 14 541 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 46 41 SSE 8 14 541 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 46 41 SSE 9 16 541 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 46 41 SSE 9 17 541 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 46 41 SSE 10 18 541 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 46 41 SSE 10 18 541 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 46 41 SSE 10 18 541 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 46 41 SSE 10 18 541 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 46 41 SE 10 17 541 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 47 42 SE 10 17 541 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 49 44 SE 10 17 541 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 50 45 S 9 17 541 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 51 46 S 9 17 541 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 52 47 S 9 17 541 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 52 47 S 10 18 541 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 52 47 S 10 18 541 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 52 47 S 10 18 541 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 51 46 SSW 11 18 541 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 50 45 SSW 11 18 541 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 48 43 SSW 11 18 541 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 47 42 SSE 8 13 541 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 47 42 SSE 8 13 541 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 47 42 SSE 8 13 541 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 47 42 E 4 10 541 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 47 42 E 4 10 541 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 47 42 E 4 10 541 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 47 42 E 4 9 541 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 46 41 E 4 9 541 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 46 41 E 4 9 541 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 46 41 E 4 10 541 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 46 41 E 4 10 541 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 46 41 E 4 10 541 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 48 43 ESE 3 8 541 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 50 46 ESE 3 8 541 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 52 48 ESE 3 8 768 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 55 52 W 6 13 2007 3200 0 White 0
12 Noon Mon 57 54 W 6 13 2319 3200 0 Blue 3
1 PM Mon 59 56 W 6 13 2736 3200 0 Blue 5
2 PM Mon 60 57 W 10 18 2767 3200 0 Blue 6
3 PM Mon 60 57 W 10 18 2767 3200 0 Blue 6
4 PM Mon 60 56 W 10 18 2736 3200 0 Blue 5
5 PM Mon 59 55 W 10 17 2681 3200 0 White 4
6 PM Mon 57 52 W 10 17 2007 3200 0 White 0
7 PM Mon 54 49 W 10 17 1264 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 52 47 WSW 5 10 541 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 51 46 WSW 5 10 541 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 50 45 WSW 5 10 541 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 50 45 NE 4 10 541 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 49 44 NE 4 10 541 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 49 44 NE 4 10 541 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 48 43 NE 4 10 541 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 47 42 NE 4 10 541 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 47 42 NE 4 10 541 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 47 42 NE 5 11 541 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 47 42 NE 5 11 541 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 49 44 NE 5 11 541 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 51 46 NE 4 10 541 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 55 52 NE 4 10 2007 3200 0 White 0
10 AM Tue 60 58 NE 4 10 2799 3200 0 Blue 7
11 AM Tue 64 64 WNW 6 13 3842 3200 0 Blue 13
12 Noon Tue 66 67 WNW 6 13 4285 3829 629 Blue 16
1 PM Tue 68 69 WNW 6 13 4541 4133 933 Blue 18
2 PM Tue 70 71 W 10 17 4961 4400 1200 Blue 20
3 PM Tue 69 68 W 10 17 4413 3981 781 Blue 17
4 PM Tue 70 68 W 10 17 4413 3981 781 Blue 17
5 PM Tue 68 64 W 9 17 3842 3200 0 Blue 13
6 PM Tue 65 60 W 9 17 2861 3200 0 Blue 9
7 PM Tue 61 56 W 9 17 2736 3200 0 Blue 5
8 PM Tue 58 53 W 5 10 2227 3200 0 White 2
9 PM Tue 56 51 W 5 10 1787 3200 0 White 0
10 PM Tue 55 50 W 5 10 1565 3200 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst