Detailed Predictions for: Palomar
Launch Altitude (f): 3200
LZ Altitude (f): 925
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

27 MAY 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 50 45 W 0 633 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 52 47 W 0 633 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 54 49 W 1 633 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 57 52 W 3 633 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 61 57 W 3 2767 3200 0 White 4
10 AM Sun 64 61 W 5 3635 3512 312 White 8
11 AM Sun 67 68 W 6 5158 4826 1626 White 15
12 Noon Sun 70 72 W 7 5690 5278 2078 Blue 19
1 PM Sun 72 75 W 7 6094 5669 2469 Blue 22
2 PM Sun 73 75 W 8 6094 5669 2469 Blue 22
3 PM Sun 72 72 W 7 5690 5278 2078 Blue 19
4 PM Sun 72 71 W 7 5546 5158 1958 Blue 18
5 PM Sun 70 67 W 6 4943 4730 1530 White 14
6 PM Sun 66 61 W 6 3635 3512 312 White 8
7 PM Sun 62 57 W 5 2767 3200 0 White 4
8 PM Sun 58 53 W 1 1141 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 56 51 NW 1 633 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 55 50 NW 2 633 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 55 50 N 2 633 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 55 50 N 2 633 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 54 49 N 2 633 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 54 49 N 2 633 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 53 48 N 2 633 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 53 48 N 2 633 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 54 49 N 2 633 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 55 50 NE 2 633 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 58 53 N 1 1141 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 62 58 W 2 2985 3200 0 White 5
9 AM Mon 66 63 W 3 4068 4068 868 White 10
10 AM Mon 71 70 W 5 5414 5038 1838 Blue 17
11 AM Mon 75 77 W 6 6236 5955 2755 Blue 24
12 Noon Mon 77 80 W 7 6448 6225 3025 Blue 27
1 PM Mon 78 81 W 7 6519 6295 3095 Blue 28
2 PM Mon 77 79 W 7 6377 6154 2954 Blue 26
3 PM Mon 78 79 W 7 6377 6154 2954 Blue 26
4 PM Mon 77 76 W 6 6165 5812 2612 Blue 23
5 PM Mon 74 71 W 5 5546 5158 1958 Blue 18
6 PM Mon 70 65 W 5 4499 4499 1299 White 12
7 PM Mon 65 60 W 5 3419 3200 0 White 7
8 PM Mon 61 56 NW 1 2550 3200 0 White 3
9 PM Mon 59 54 N 1 1976 3200 0 Blue 1
10 PM Mon 59 54 N 2 1976 3200 0 Blue 1
11 PM Mon 59 54 N 3 1976 3200 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Tue 59 54 N 3 1976 3200 0 Blue 1
1 AM Tue 58 53 N 3 1141 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 58 53 N 2 1141 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 57 52 N 2 633 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 56 51 N 2 633 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 56 51 N 2 633 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 57 52 NE 2 633 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 60 55 N 1 2320 3200 0 White 2
8 AM Tue 63 59 W 2 3202 3200 0 White 6
9 AM Tue 68 66 W 3 4724 4633 1433 White 13
10 AM Tue 72 71 W 3 5546 5158 1958 Blue 18
11 AM Tue 77 79 W 6 6377 6154 2954 Blue 26
12 Noon Tue 80 83 W 7 6661 6436 3236 Blue 30
1 PM Tue 81 84 W 7 6732 6507 3307 Blue 31
2 PM Tue 81 83 W 7 6661 6436 3236 Blue 30
3 PM Tue 82 83 W 7 6661 6436 3236 Blue 30
4 PM Tue 80 79 W 7 6377 6154 2954 Blue 26
5 PM Tue 78 75 W 6 6094 5669 2469 Blue 22
6 PM Tue 74 69 SW 3 5293 4917 1717 Blue 16
7 PM Tue 70 65 SW 2 4499 4499 1299 White 12
8 PM Tue 67 62 S 1 3852 3852 652 White 9
9 PM Tue 65 60 SW 1 3419 3200 0 White 7
10 PM Tue 63 58 NW 2 2985 3200 0 White 5
11 PM Tue 62 57 N 2 2767 3200 0 White 4
12 Midnight Wed 61 56 N 2 2550 3200 0 White 3
1 AM Wed 59 54 N 2 1976 3200 0 Blue 1
2 AM Wed 57 52 N 1 633 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 56 51 N 1 633 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 55 50 N 1 633 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 50 N 1 633 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 57 52 N 1 633 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 60 55 N 1 2320 3200 0 White 2
8 AM Wed 64 60 W 5 3419 3200 0 White 7
9 AM Wed 68 65 W 5 4499 4499 1299 White 12
10 AM Wed 71 69 W 5 5293 4917 1717 Blue 16
11 AM Wed 74 76 SW 8 6165 5812 2612 Blue 23
12 Noon Wed 75 78 SW 8 6307 6083 2883 Blue 25
1 PM Wed 76 79 SW 8 6377 6154 2954 Blue 26
2 PM Wed 76 78 SW 8 6307 6083 2883 Blue 25
3 PM Wed 76 77 SW 8 6236 5955 2755 Blue 24
4 PM Wed 75 74 SW 8 5977 5526 2326 Blue 21
5 PM Wed 74 71 SW 7 5546 5158 1958 Blue 18
6 PM Wed 71 66 SW 7 4724 4633 1433 White 13
7 PM Wed 69 64 SW 7 4284 4284 1084 White 11
8 PM Wed 66 61 SW 5 3635 3512 312 White 8
9 PM Wed 63 58 SW 5 2985 3200 0 White 5
10 PM Wed 60 55 SW 5 2320 3200 0 White 2
11 PM Wed 58 53 S 2 1141 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 57 52 S 2 633 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 57 52 S 2 633 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 56 51 S 2 633 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 55 50 S 2 633 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 54 49 S 2 633 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 54 49 S 3 633 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 56 51 S 3 633 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 59 54 S 3 1976 3200 0 Blue 1
8 AM Thu 62 57 S 7 2767 3200 0 White 4
9 AM Thu 64 60 S 7 3419 3200 0 White 7
10 AM Thu 66 63 S 7 4068 4068 868 White 10
11 AM Thu 68 69 SW 9 5293 4917 1717 Blue 16
12 Noon Thu 69 71 SW 9 5546 5158 1958 Blue 18
1 PM Thu 70 72 SW 9 5690 5278 2078 Blue 19
2 PM Thu 70 71 SW 10 5546 5158 1958 Blue 18
3 PM Thu 70 70 SW 10 5414 5038 1838 Blue 17
4 PM Thu 69 67 SW 10 4943 4730 1530 White 14
5 PM Thu 67 64 SW 9 4284 4284 1084 White 11
6 PM Thu 65 60 SW 9 3419 3200 0 White 7
7 PM Thu 63 58 SW 9 2985 3200 0 White 5
8 PM Thu 60 55 S 3 2320 3200 0 White 2
9 PM Thu 58 53 S 3 1141 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 55 50 S 3 633 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 53 48 S 3 633 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 52 47 S 3 633 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 52 47 S 3 633 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 51 46 SE 3 633 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 50 45 SE 3 633 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 49 44 SE 3 633 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 49 44 SE 3 633 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 51 46 SE 3 633 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 55 50 SE 3 633 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 58 54 S 5 1976 3200 0 Blue 1
9 AM Fri 62 59 S 5 3202 3200 0 White 6
10 AM Fri 65 63 S 5 4068 4068 868 White 10
11 AM Fri 67 69 SW 6 5293 4917 1717 Blue 16
12 Noon Fri 69 72 SW 6 5690 5278 2078 Blue 19
1 PM Fri 71 74 SW 6 5977 5526 2326 Blue 21
2 PM Fri 72 74 W 7 5977 5526 2326 Blue 21
3 PM Fri 72 73 W 7 5833 5398 2198 Blue 20
4 PM Fri 71 70 W 7 5414 5038 1838 Blue 17
5 PM Fri 69 66 W 8 4724 4633 1433 White 13
6 PM Fri 66 61 W 8 3635 3512 312 White 8
7 PM Fri 63 58 W 8 2985 3200 0 White 5
8 PM Fri 60 55 NW 6 2320 3200 0 White 2
9 PM Fri 57 52 NW 6 633 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 55 50 NW 6 633 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 54 49 NE 3 633 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 54 49 NE 3 633 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 55 50 NE 3 633 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 54 49 NE 3 633 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 54 49 NE 3 633 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 53 48 NE 3 633 3200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst