Detailed Predictions for: Palomar
Launch Altitude (f): 3200
LZ Altitude (f): 925
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

17 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 52 47 E 3 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 52 47 E 3 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 51 46 E 3 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 51 46 E 5 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 54 49 E 5 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 59 54 E 1 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 65 61 W 3 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 71 68 W 3 1960 3200 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 75 72 W 3 2620 3200 0 Blue 5
1 PM Wed 78 75 SW 3 3302 3200 0 Blue 8
2 PM Wed 78 74 W 5 3007 3200 0 Blue 7
3 PM Wed 78 73 W 5 2816 3200 0 Blue 6
4 PM Wed 75 70 NW 2 2200 3200 0 Blue 3
5 PM Wed 69 64 NW 1 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 63 58 NE 2 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 61 56 E 7 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 59 54 E 7 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 58 53 E 6 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 57 52 E 5 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 56 51 E 5 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 56 51 E 3 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 54 49 E 2 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 54 49 E 2 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 53 48 E 3 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 53 48 NE 3 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 53 48 E 3 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 52 47 E 3 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 52 47 E 2 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 54 49 E 2 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 59 54 E 0 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 64 60 SW 2 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 69 66 SW 3 1511 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 72 69 W 3 2083 3200 0 Blue 2
1 PM Thu 75 72 W 5 2620 3200 0 Blue 5
2 PM Thu 75 71 W 5 2411 3200 0 Blue 4
3 PM Thu 75 70 W 5 2200 3200 0 Blue 3
4 PM Thu 72 67 W 3 1662 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 65 60 W 1 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 59 54 SW 1 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 57 52 SE 2 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 55 50 SE 2 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 54 49 SE 2 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 54 49 SE 2 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 52 47 SE 2 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 52 47 SE 2 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 50 45 SE 2 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 50 45 SE 2 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 49 44 SE 2 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 49 44 E 2 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 49 44 SE 2 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 48 43 SE 0 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 48 43 SW 1 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 49 44 W 1 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 52 47 W 3 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 54 49 W 7 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 57 52 W 8 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 58 53 W 8 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 60 55 W 12 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 59 54 W 13 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 59 54 W 13 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 57 52 W 9 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 53 48 W 9 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 49 44 W 9 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 48 43 W 8 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 47 42 W 8 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 46 41 W 7 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 46 41 W 7 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 45 40 NW 6 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 44 39 NW 6 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 43 38 NW 6 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 43 38 NW 1 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 43 38 NW 1 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 42 37 NW 6 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 42 37 NW 6 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 42 37 NW 6 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 42 37 N 5 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 44 39 N 5 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 47 42 N 5 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 51 47 NW 7 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 54 51 NW 7 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 56 53 NW 7 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 58 55 NW 12 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 59 55 NW 12 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 58 53 NW 12 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 56 51 W 9 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 52 47 W 9 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 48 43 W 9 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 46 41 E 2 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 45 40 E 2 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 44 39 E 2 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 44 39 E 5 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 43 38 E 5 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 42 37 E 5 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 42 37 E 3 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 41 36 E 3 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 41 36 E 3 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 40 35 E 7 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 40 35 E 7 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 40 35 E 7 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 40 35 SE 7 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 42 37 SE 7 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 47 43 SE 7 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 52 48 SW 5 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 57 54 SW 5 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 60 57 SW 5 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 63 59 W 6 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 64 60 W 6 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 63 58 W 6 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 60 55 W 6 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 56 51 W 6 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 51 46 W 6 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 49 44 N 5 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 48 43 N 5 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 47 42 N 5 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 46 41 NE 6 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 45 40 NE 6 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 45 40 NE 6 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 44 39 NE 7 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 44 39 NE 7 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 43 38 NE 7 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 42 37 NE 5 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 42 37 NE 5 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 42 37 NE 5 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 42 37 N 3 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 44 39 N 3 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 49 44 N 3 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 55 51 W 5 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 60 57 W 5 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 63 60 W 5 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 66 62 W 7 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 67 63 W 7 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 66 61 W 7 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 64 59 W 7 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 59 54 W 7 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 54 49 W 7 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 52 47 NW 1 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 51 46 NW 1 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 50 45 NW 1 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 49 44 E 1 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 48 43 E 1 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 48 43 E 1 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 47 42 E 2 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 46 41 E 2 1368 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 46 41 E 2 1368 3200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst