Detailed Predictions for: Palomar
Launch Altitude (f): 3200
LZ Altitude (f): 925
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

26 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 50 45 NE 1 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 50 45 NE 2 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 49 44 NE 2 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 51 46 E 1 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 58 54 SW 1 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 63 60 W 2 1798 3200 0 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 68 66 W 6 2849 3200 0 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 72 70 W 6 3060 3200 0 Blue 14
1 PM Tue 74 72 W 7 3317 3200 0 Blue 16
2 PM Tue 74 72 W 8 3317 3200 0 Blue 16
3 PM Tue 74 71 W 8 3147 3200 0 Blue 15
4 PM Tue 73 69 W 7 3013 3200 0 Blue 13
5 PM Tue 72 67 W 6 2905 3200 0 Blue 11
6 PM Tue 70 65 W 5 2749 3200 0 Blue 9
7 PM Tue 64 59 W 2 1687 3200 0 Blue 3
8 PM Tue 60 55 SE 1 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 57 52 SE 1 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 56 51 SE 1 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 55 50 N 1 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 53 48 NE 2 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 51 46 NE 1 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 51 46 NE 1 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 51 46 N 1 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 50 45 N 1 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 50 45 N 2 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 50 45 N 1 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 49 44 NW 1 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 51 46 W 1 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 56 52 W 2 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 61 57 W 5 1587 3200 0 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 64 61 W 6 2065 3200 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 67 65 W 7 2749 3200 0 Blue 9
1 PM Wed 69 67 W 8 2905 3200 0 Blue 11
2 PM Wed 69 66 W 9 2849 3200 0 Blue 10
3 PM Wed 69 66 W 9 2849 3200 0 Blue 10
4 PM Wed 69 65 W 9 2749 3200 0 Blue 9
5 PM Wed 68 63 W 8 2403 3200 0 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 66 61 W 7 2065 3200 0 Blue 5
7 PM Wed 61 56 W 5 1468 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 58 53 W 2 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 56 51 NW 2 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 55 50 NW 2 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 54 49 NW 2 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 53 48 NW 2 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 51 46 NW 2 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 51 46 NW 3 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 51 46 NW 3 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 50 45 N 3 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 50 45 N 5 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 50 45 NW 5 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 49 44 NW 5 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 51 46 NW 6 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 55 51 NW 6 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 59 56 W 7 1468 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 62 61 W 8 2065 3200 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 65 65 W 9 2749 3200 0 Blue 9
1 PM Thu 66 66 W 12 2849 3200 0 Blue 10
2 PM Thu 66 65 W 13 2749 3200 0 Blue 9
3 PM Thu 66 64 W 13 2571 3200 0 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 66 63 W 12 2403 3200 0 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 64 60 W 10 1798 3200 0 Blue 4
6 PM Thu 62 57 SW 8 1587 3200 0 Blue 1
7 PM Thu 58 53 S 6 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 55 50 S 3 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 53 48 S 2 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 52 47 SE 2 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 51 46 SE 3 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 50 45 E 3 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 48 43 NE 5 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 48 43 N 6 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 43 N 7 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 47 42 NE 8 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 46 41 NE 8 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 46 41 NE 8 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 46 41 NE 8 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 48 43 NE 9 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 55 51 NE 9 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 60 58 NE 9 1637 3200 0 Blue 2
11 AM Fri 65 64 NW 7 2571 3200 0 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 68 68 NW 7 2961 3200 0 Blue 12
1 PM Fri 71 71 NW 7 3147 3200 0 Blue 15
2 PM Fri 72 72 W 10 3317 3200 0 Blue 16
3 PM Fri 71 70 W 10 3060 3200 0 Blue 14
4 PM Fri 70 67 W 10 2905 3200 0 Blue 11
5 PM Fri 69 65 W 8 2749 3200 0 Blue 9
6 PM Fri 67 62 W 8 2234 3200 0 Blue 6
7 PM Fri 62 57 W 8 1587 3200 0 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 59 54 SE 2 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 56 51 SE 2 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 55 50 SE 2 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 54 49 NE 3 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 53 48 NE 3 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 51 46 NE 3 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 51 46 N 7 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 51 46 N 7 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 50 45 N 7 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 50 45 NE 7 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 50 45 NE 7 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 49 44 NE 7 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 51 46 NE 9 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 58 54 NE 9 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 64 62 NE 9 2234 3200 0 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 68 68 W 9 2961 3200 0 Blue 12
12 Noon Sat 72 73 W 9 3876 3200 0 Blue 17
1 PM Sat 75 76 W 9 5532 3833 633 Blue 20
2 PM Sat 76 76 W 8 5532 3833 633 Blue 20
3 PM Sat 75 74 W 8 4418 3200 0 Blue 18
4 PM Sat 74 71 W 8 3147 3200 0 Blue 15
5 PM Sat 73 69 NW 12 3013 3200 0 Blue 13
6 PM Sat 71 66 NW 12 2849 3200 0 Blue 10
7 PM Sat 65 60 NW 12 1798 3200 0 Blue 4
8 PM Sat 62 57 N 10 1587 3200 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sat 59 54 N 10 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 58 53 N 10 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 57 52 NE 12 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 55 50 NE 12 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 53 48 NE 12 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 53 48 NE 13 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 53 48 NE 13 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 52 47 NE 13 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 52 47 NE 15 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 52 47 NE 15 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 51 46 NE 15 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 53 48 NE 16 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 60 57 NE 16 1587 3200 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 66 64 NE 16 2571 3200 0 Blue 8
11 AM Sun 70 70 N 9 3060 3200 0 Blue 14
12 Noon Sun 74 75 N 9 4944 3283 83 Blue 19
1 PM Sun 77 78 N 9 6133 4885 1685 Blue 22
2 PM Sun 78 79 NW 7 6430 5484 2284 Blue 23
3 PM Sun 77 76 NW 7 5532 3833 633 Blue 20
4 PM Sun 76 74 NW 7 4418 3200 0 Blue 18
5 PM Sun 75 71 NW 7 3147 3200 0 Blue 15
6 PM Sun 72 67 NW 7 2905 3200 0 Blue 11
7 PM Sun 67 62 NW 7 2234 3200 0 Blue 6
8 PM Sun 63 58 E 5 1637 3200 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sun 60 55 E 5 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 59 54 E 5 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 58 53 NE 9 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 56 51 NE 9 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 54 49 NE 9 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 54 49 NE 10 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 54 49 NE 10 1299 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 53 48 NE 10 1299 3200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst