Detailed Predictions for: Palomar
Launch Altitude (f): 3200
LZ Altitude (f): 925
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Tue 49 44 E 33 787 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 48 43 E 35 787 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 48 43 E 35 787 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 50 45 E 35 787 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 54 49 E 33 787 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 59 55 E 32 787 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 64 61 E 29 1698 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 69 67 E 28 4446 3503 303 Blue 4
12 Noon Tue 73 71 E 28 4573 4475 1275 Blue 8
1 PM Tue 73 70 E 24 4541 4443 1243 Blue 7
2 PM Tue 72 68 E 23 4478 4042 842 Blue 5
3 PM Tue 68 63 E 23 2977 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 63 58 E 22 787 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 58 53 E 23 787 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 54 49 E 23 787 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 52 47 E 25 787 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 51 46 E 25 787 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 51 46 E 24 787 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 52 47 E 24 787 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 53 48 E 23 787 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 54 49 E 23 787 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 54 49 E 23 787 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 53 48 E 23 787 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 52 47 E 22 787 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 51 46 E 22 787 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 50 45 E 22 787 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 50 45 E 22 787 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 52 47 E 21 787 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 57 52 E 17 787 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 63 59 E 14 787 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 69 66 E 9 4367 3200 0 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 74 71 E 9 4573 4475 1275 Blue 8
12 Noon Wed 77 74 E 9 5042 4570 1370 Blue 11
1 PM Wed 77 74 E 9 5042 4570 1370 Blue 11
2 PM Wed 76 72 E 9 4611 4506 1306 Blue 9
3 PM Wed 73 68 E 9 4478 4042 842 Blue 5
4 PM Wed 69 64 E 9 3542 3200 0 Blue 1
5 PM Wed 66 61 E 12 1698 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 63 58 E 14 787 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 60 55 E 16 787 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 58 53 E 16 787 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 57 52 E 15 787 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 55 50 E 13 787 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 53 48 E 13 787 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 51 46 E 12 787 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 50 45 E 12 787 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 49 44 E 13 787 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 49 44 E 14 787 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 51 46 E 14 787 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 53 48 E 15 787 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 56 51 E 15 787 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 59 54 E 15 787 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 62 57 NE 12 787 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 65 61 NW 8 1698 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 69 66 W 6 4367 3200 0 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 74 72 W 6 4611 4506 1306 Blue 9
12 Noon Thu 77 75 W 6 5431 4603 1403 Blue 12
1 PM Thu 78 75 W 7 5431 4603 1403 Blue 12
2 PM Thu 77 74 W 7 5042 4570 1370 Blue 11
3 PM Thu 74 70 W 6 4541 4443 1243 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 69 64 W 5 3542 3200 0 Blue 1
5 PM Thu 66 61 NW 3 1698 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 63 58 NW 3 787 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 60 55 N 3 787 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 58 53 N 2 787 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 56 51 N 2 787 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 55 50 N 3 787 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 54 49 NE 3 787 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 52 47 NE 3 787 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 51 46 NE 5 787 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 50 45 NE 3 787 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 43 NE 3 787 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 48 43 NE 2 787 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 48 43 NE 2 787 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 50 45 NE 2 787 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 54 49 NE 3 787 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 58 53 NE 3 787 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 64 60 NE 3 1009 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 68 65 W 6 4089 3200 0 Blue 2
11 AM Fri 71 68 W 6 4478 4042 842 Blue 5
12 Noon Fri 72 69 W 6 4510 4359 1159 Blue 6
1 PM Fri 72 69 W 9 4510 4359 1159 Blue 6
2 PM Fri 71 67 W 9 4446 3503 303 Blue 4
3 PM Fri 70 65 W 9 4089 3200 0 Blue 2
4 PM Fri 68 63 W 6 2977 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 66 61 W 6 1698 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 63 58 W 6 787 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 60 55 N 2 787 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 57 52 N 2 787 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 55 50 N 2 787 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 53 48 N 5 787 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 52 47 N 5 787 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 51 46 N 5 787 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 50 45 NE 5 787 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 49 44 NE 5 787 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 48 43 NE 5 787 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 48 43 NE 5 787 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 49 44 NE 5 787 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 52 47 NE 5 787 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 55 50 N 3 787 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 59 54 N 3 787 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 62 58 N 3 787 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 66 63 SW 6 2977 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 68 65 SW 6 4089 3200 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sat 70 67 SW 6 4446 3503 303 Blue 4
1 PM Sat 71 68 W 8 4478 4042 842 Blue 5
2 PM Sat 71 67 W 8 4446 3503 303 Blue 4
3 PM Sat 69 64 W 8 3542 3200 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sat 67 62 W 5 2355 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 63 58 W 5 787 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 59 54 W 5 787 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 56 51 NE 5 787 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 54 49 NE 5 787 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 53 48 NE 5 787 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 53 48 NE 5 787 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 53 48 NE 5 787 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 53 48 NE 5 787 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 54 49 NE 6 787 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 54 49 NE 6 787 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 55 50 NE 6 787 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 57 52 E 8 787 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 58 53 E 8 787 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 60 55 E 8 787 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 63 58 E 10 787 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 67 62 E 10 2355 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 70 66 E 10 4367 3200 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 73 70 SE 5 4541 4443 1243 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 74 71 SE 5 4573 4475 1275 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 75 72 SE 5 4611 4506 1306 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 75 72 S 3 4611 4506 1306 Blue 9
2 PM Sun 75 71 S 3 4573 4475 1275 Blue 8
3 PM Sun 74 69 S 3 4510 4359 1159 Blue 6
4 PM Sun 71 66 S 2 4367 3200 0 Blue 3
5 PM Sun 66 61 S 2 1698 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 61 56 S 2 787 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 56 51 E 8 787 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 54 49 E 8 787 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 52 47 E 8 787 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 52 47 E 7 787 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 51 46 E 7 787 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 51 46 E 7 787 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 51 46 E 9 787 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 51 46 E 9 787 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 52 47 E 9 787 3200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst