Detailed Predictions for: Palomar
Launch Altitude (f): 3200
LZ Altitude (f): 925
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

19 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sun 51 46 E 3 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 51 46 E 2 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 52 47 E 2 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 54 49 E 3 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 60 55 NE 3 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 66 62 NW 3 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 71 68 W 5 1996 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 74 72 W 5 2888 3200 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 74 72 W 6 2888 3200 0 Blue 4
1 PM Sun 74 71 W 7 2465 3200 0 Blue 3
2 PM Sun 72 68 W 6 1996 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 68 63 NW 5 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 64 59 NW 3 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 59 54 NW 2 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 55 50 NE 2 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 51 46 NE 2 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 49 44 NE 2 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 49 44 E 2 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 49 44 E 2 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 49 44 NE 2 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 48 43 NE 2 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 48 43 NE 2 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 48 43 NE 3 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 48 43 NE 3 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 48 43 NE 3 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 50 45 NE 3 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 52 47 NE 2 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 55 50 NE 2 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 61 56 NE 1 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 67 63 W 1 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 72 68 W 3 1996 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 76 73 W 5 3786 3200 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Mon 76 73 W 5 3786 3200 0 Blue 5
1 PM Mon 77 73 W 7 3786 3200 0 Blue 5
2 PM Mon 74 70 W 7 2210 3200 0 Blue 2
3 PM Mon 70 65 W 6 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 66 61 NW 2 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 61 56 N 2 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 56 51 N 2 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 54 49 NE 2 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 54 49 NE 2 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 55 50 NE 2 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 56 51 NE 3 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 56 51 E 3 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 56 51 E 3 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 55 50 E 3 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 54 49 E 5 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 55 50 E 5 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 56 51 E 5 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 59 54 E 5 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 63 58 E 5 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 67 62 E 6 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 71 66 E 1 1510 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 75 71 W 1 2465 3200 0 Blue 3
10 AM Tue 78 75 W 5 4697 3200 0 Blue 7
11 AM Tue 81 78 W 6 5999 4671 1471 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 84 81 W 6 6192 5989 2789 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 84 81 W 6 6192 5989 2789 Blue 13
2 PM Tue 85 81 W 6 6192 5989 2789 Blue 13
3 PM Tue 82 77 W 6 5935 4428 1228 Blue 9
4 PM Tue 78 73 W 1 3786 3200 0 Blue 5
5 PM Tue 72 67 E 3 1792 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 66 61 E 3 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 62 57 E 6 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 61 56 E 6 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 62 57 E 7 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 62 57 E 7 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 61 56 E 8 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 59 54 E 8 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 58 53 E 9 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 59 54 E 10 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 61 56 E 10 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 63 58 E 12 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 65 60 E 12 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 66 61 E 12 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 70 65 E 13 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 75 70 E 13 2210 3200 0 Blue 2
9 AM Wed 82 78 E 13 5999 4671 1471 Blue 10
10 AM Wed 87 84 SE 2 6496 6180 2980 Blue 16
11 AM Wed 90 88 SE 2 8223 6609 3409 Blue 20
12 Noon Wed 90 88 SE 2 8223 6609 3409 Blue 20
1 PM Wed 89 86 W 2 7266 6355 3155 Blue 18
2 PM Wed 87 84 W 2 6496 6180 2980 Blue 16
3 PM Wed 85 80 W 2 6126 5926 2726 Blue 12
4 PM Wed 82 77 NW 1 5935 4428 1228 Blue 9
5 PM Wed 78 73 NW 1 3786 3200 0 Blue 5
6 PM Wed 75 70 NW 1 2210 3200 0 Blue 2
7 PM Wed 71 66 E 9 1510 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 68 63 E 9 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 65 60 E 9 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 63 58 E 7 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 62 57 E 7 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 61 56 E 7 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 61 56 E 7 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 60 55 E 7 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 60 55 E 7 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 60 55 E 8 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 60 55 E 8 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 61 56 E 8 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 65 60 E 8 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 72 67 E 8 1792 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 80 76 E 8 4992 3721 521 Blue 8
10 AM Thu 86 83 SW 2 6369 6116 2916 Blue 15
11 AM Thu 89 87 SW 2 7855 6473 3273 Blue 19
12 Noon Thu 89 87 SW 2 7855 6473 3273 Blue 19
1 PM Thu 87 84 W 6 6496 6180 2980 Blue 16
2 PM Thu 85 81 W 6 6192 5989 2789 Blue 13
3 PM Thu 83 78 W 6 5999 4671 1471 Blue 10
4 PM Thu 80 75 W 1 4697 3200 0 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 74 69 W 1 2089 3200 0 Blue 1
6 PM Thu 67 62 W 1 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 62 57 E 5 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 59 54 E 5 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 58 53 E 5 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 58 53 E 5 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 57 52 E 5 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 56 51 E 5 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 56 51 E 3 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 55 50 E 3 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 55 50 E 3 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 55 50 NE 3 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 56 51 NE 3 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 58 53 NE 3 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 62 57 NE 3 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 67 62 NE 3 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 74 70 NE 3 2210 3200 0 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 79 76 SW 5 4992 3721 521 Blue 8
11 AM Fri 82 80 SW 5 6126 5926 2726 Blue 12
12 Noon Fri 83 81 SW 5 6192 5989 2789 Blue 13
1 PM Fri 83 80 W 7 6126 5926 2726 Blue 12
2 PM Fri 82 78 W 7 5999 4671 1471 Blue 10
3 PM Fri 80 75 W 7 4697 3200 0 Blue 7
4 PM Fri 77 72 SW 3 2888 3200 0 Blue 4
5 PM Fri 71 66 SW 3 1510 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 65 60 SW 3 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 59 54 E 2 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 56 51 E 2 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 55 50 E 2 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 54 49 SE 2 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 53 48 SE 2 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 53 48 SE 2 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 52 47 E 3 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 52 47 E 3 1234 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 53 48 E 3 1234 3200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst