Detailed Predictions for: Palomar
Launch Altitude (f): 3200
LZ Altitude (f): 925
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

26 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 50 45 SE 6 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 50 45 SE 7 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 51 46 SE 7 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 52 47 SE 8 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 51 46 S 8 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 52 47 S 8 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 52 47 SW 9 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 52 47 SW 8 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 51 46 SW 8 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 51 46 SW 9 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 51 46 SW 10 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 51 46 SW 9 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 51 46 SW 8 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 51 46 SW 10 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 51 46 SW 8 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 51 46 SW 7 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 50 45 SW 7 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 50 45 W 9 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 50 45 W 8 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 50 45 W 8 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 49 44 W 9 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 49 44 W 6 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 48 43 W 6 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 48 43 W 3 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 48 43 W 5 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 48 43 W 3 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 49 44 W 3 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 49 44 W 3 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 50 46 W 5 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 51 47 W 7 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 52 50 W 8 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 54 52 W 9 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 55 53 W 9 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 57 55 W 9 2008 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 56 53 W 9 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 57 53 W 9 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 56 52 W 8 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 55 50 W 8 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 54 49 W 7 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 52 47 W 6 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 52 47 W 3 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 51 46 NW 2 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 51 46 NW 1 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 50 45 W 1 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 50 45 W 1 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 49 44 W 1 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 48 43 W 1 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 48 43 SW 1 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 48 43 SW 1 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 49 44 SW 2 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 50 45 SW 2 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 52 48 SW 3 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 55 51 SW 5 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 58 56 SW 5 3215 3200 0 White 1
11 AM Tue 61 61 W 6 4298 4298 1098 White 6
12 Noon Tue 64 65 W 7 5165 5165 1965 White 10
1 PM Tue 66 67 W 8 5585 5585 2385 White 12
2 PM Tue 68 68 W 9 5795 5738 2538 White 13
3 PM Tue 67 66 W 9 5376 5376 2176 White 11
4 PM Tue 67 65 W 8 5165 5165 1965 White 10
5 PM Tue 65 61 W 7 4298 4298 1098 White 6
6 PM Tue 62 57 W 6 3432 3432 232 White 2
7 PM Tue 59 54 NW 3 1508 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 57 52 NW 2 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 57 52 NW 3 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 57 52 N 5 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 58 53 N 6 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 57 52 N 6 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 56 51 N 5 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 55 50 N 5 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 53 48 N 5 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 53 48 N 5 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 54 49 NE 5 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 56 51 NE 5 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 60 55 NE 5 2008 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 64 60 W 2 4082 4082 882 White 5
9 AM Wed 66 64 W 2 4953 4953 1753 White 9
10 AM Wed 69 69 W 2 6008 5768 2568 White 14
11 AM Wed 70 70 W 7 6190 5797 2597 Blue 15
12 Noon Wed 72 73 W 7 6680 6164 2964 Blue 18
1 PM Wed 73 74 W 7 6842 6326 3126 Blue 19
2 PM Wed 74 75 SW 9 7005 6489 3289 Blue 20
3 PM Wed 74 74 SW 9 6842 6326 3126 Blue 19
4 PM Wed 73 71 SW 9 6353 5904 2704 Blue 16
5 PM Wed 72 68 SW 8 5795 5738 2538 White 13
6 PM Wed 70 65 SW 8 5165 5165 1965 White 10
7 PM Wed 67 62 SW 8 4514 4514 1314 White 7
8 PM Wed 64 59 S 2 3866 3866 666 White 4
9 PM Wed 62 57 S 2 3432 3432 232 White 2
10 PM Wed 60 55 S 2 2008 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 59 54 SE 1 1508 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 58 53 SE 1 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 57 52 SE 1 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 56 51 E 1 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 55 50 E 1 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 54 49 E 1 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 54 49 SE 2 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 56 51 SE 2 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 59 54 SE 2 1508 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 62 58 SW 2 3649 3649 449 White 3
9 AM Thu 65 63 SW 2 4740 4740 1540 White 8
10 AM Thu 68 68 SW 2 5795 5738 2538 White 13
11 AM Thu 70 72 SW 6 6517 6019 2819 Blue 17
12 Noon Thu 72 75 SW 6 7005 6489 3289 Blue 20
1 PM Thu 74 77 SW 6 7700 6813 3613 White 22
2 PM Thu 75 77 W 9 7700 6813 3613 White 22
3 PM Thu 75 76 W 9 7490 6651 3451 White 21
4 PM Thu 73 72 W 9 6517 6019 2819 Blue 17
5 PM Thu 71 68 SW 7 5795 5738 2538 White 13
6 PM Thu 68 63 SW 7 4740 4740 1540 White 8
7 PM Thu 66 61 SW 7 4298 4298 1098 White 6
8 PM Thu 64 59 W 1 3866 3866 666 White 4
9 PM Thu 62 57 W 1 3432 3432 232 White 2
10 PM Thu 61 56 W 1 3215 3200 0 White 1
11 PM Thu 60 55 N 2 2008 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 59 54 N 2 1508 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 58 53 N 2 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 57 52 N 3 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 56 51 N 3 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 55 50 N 3 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 55 50 N 5 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 57 52 N 5 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 60 55 N 5 2008 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 63 59 W 2 3866 3866 666 White 4
9 AM Fri 66 64 W 2 4953 4953 1753 White 9
10 AM Fri 68 68 W 2 5795 5738 2538 White 13
11 AM Fri 70 71 W 7 6353 5904 2704 Blue 16
12 Noon Fri 71 73 W 7 6680 6164 2964 Blue 18
1 PM Fri 73 76 W 7 7490 6651 3451 White 21
2 PM Fri 74 76 W 9 7490 6651 3451 White 21
3 PM Fri 74 74 W 9 6842 6326 3126 Blue 19
4 PM Fri 73 72 W 9 6517 6019 2819 Blue 17
5 PM Fri 72 69 SW 7 6008 5768 2568 White 14
6 PM Fri 70 65 SW 7 5165 5165 1965 White 10
7 PM Fri 67 62 SW 7 4514 4514 1314 White 7
8 PM Fri 65 60 W 2 4082 4082 882 White 5
9 PM Fri 64 59 W 2 3866 3866 666 White 4
10 PM Fri 63 58 W 2 3649 3649 449 White 3
11 PM Fri 62 57 N 3 3432 3432 232 White 2
12 Midnight Sat 61 56 N 3 3215 3200 0 White 1
1 AM Sat 60 55 N 3 2008 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 58 53 NW 2 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 56 51 NW 2 1053 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 55 50 NW 2 1053 3200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst