Detailed Predictions for: Palomar
Launch Altitude (f): 3200
LZ Altitude (f): 925
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

25 NOV 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 51 46 E 2 568 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 51 46 E 2 568 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 52 47 E 3 568 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 54 49 E 2 568 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 57 52 SE 2 568 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 60 56 S 2 568 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 64 61 SW 3 2966 3200 0 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 65 63 W 5 3286 3200 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 65 63 W 6 3286 3200 0 Blue 5
1 PM Wed 66 63 W 6 3286 3200 0 Blue 5
2 PM Wed 65 61 W 7 2966 3200 0 Blue 3
3 PM Wed 63 58 W 7 1849 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 61 56 W 5 568 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 59 54 W 3 568 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 56 51 NW 2 568 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 54 49 NW 1 568 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 53 48 NW 1 568 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 52 47 W 1 568 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 51 46 W 1 568 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 51 46 W 1 568 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 50 45 W 1 568 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 49 44 W 1 568 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 48 43 W 2 568 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 48 43 N 2 568 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 48 43 N 2 568 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 48 43 NE 2 568 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 48 43 NE 1 568 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 50 45 NE 1 568 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 52 47 N 2 568 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 55 51 W 3 568 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 58 55 SW 5 568 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 61 58 SW 5 1849 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 63 61 W 5 2966 3200 0 Blue 3
1 PM Thu 65 62 W 5 3244 3200 0 Blue 4
2 PM Thu 64 60 NW 5 2631 3200 0 Blue 2
3 PM Thu 64 59 NE 6 2274 3200 0 Blue 1
4 PM Thu 62 57 E 8 568 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 59 54 E 12 568 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 56 51 E 16 568 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 54 49 NE 20 568 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 53 48 NE 23 568 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 52 47 NE 25 568 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 51 46 NE 28 568 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 50 45 NE 29 568 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 50 45 NE 29 568 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 49 44 NE 29 568 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 49 44 NE 30 568 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 49 44 NE 30 568 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 49 44 NE 30 568 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 49 44 NE 28 568 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 50 45 NE 25 568 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 52 47 NE 23 568 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 55 50 NE 22 568 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 60 56 NE 20 568 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 64 61 NE 17 2966 3200 0 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 67 65 NE 13 3322 3234 34 Blue 7
12 Noon Fri 68 66 NE 7 3340 3285 85 Blue 8
1 PM Fri 67 64 NE 2 3304 3200 0 Blue 6
2 PM Fri 67 63 E 1 3286 3200 0 Blue 5
3 PM Fri 66 61 S 1 2966 3200 0 Blue 3
4 PM Fri 63 58 SW 2 1849 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 59 54 S 5 568 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 54 49 E 6 568 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 51 46 E 7 568 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 50 45 E 8 568 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 50 45 E 8 568 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 52 47 E 8 568 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 54 49 E 10 568 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 56 51 E 13 568 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 58 53 E 15 568 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 58 53 E 16 568 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 58 53 E 16 568 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 57 52 E 15 568 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 56 51 E 15 568 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 56 51 E 15 568 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 57 52 E 15 568 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 60 55 E 15 568 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 63 59 E 15 2274 3200 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 67 64 E 10 3304 3200 0 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 70 68 E 10 3449 3321 121 Blue 10
12 Noon Sat 72 70 E 10 3741 3357 157 Blue 12
1 PM Sat 72 69 E 8 3595 3339 139 Blue 11
2 PM Sat 72 68 E 8 3449 3321 121 Blue 10
3 PM Sat 69 64 E 8 3304 3200 0 Blue 6
4 PM Sat 66 61 N 12 2966 3200 0 Blue 3
5 PM Sat 63 58 N 12 1849 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 61 56 N 12 568 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 58 53 E 9 568 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 56 51 E 9 568 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 54 49 E 9 568 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 52 47 E 9 568 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 52 47 E 9 568 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 51 46 E 9 568 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 51 46 E 9 568 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 52 47 E 9 568 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 52 47 E 9 568 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 52 47 E 8 568 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 52 47 E 8 568 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 52 47 E 8 568 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 53 48 E 8 568 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 58 53 E 8 568 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 64 60 E 8 2631 3200 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sun 69 66 W 5 3340 3285 85 Blue 8
11 AM Sun 72 69 W 5 3595 3339 139 Blue 11
12 Noon Sun 73 70 W 5 3741 3357 157 Blue 12
1 PM Sun 73 70 W 6 3741 3357 157 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 73 69 W 6 3595 3339 139 Blue 11
3 PM Sun 70 65 W 6 3322 3234 34 Blue 7
4 PM Sun 67 62 NW 3 3244 3200 0 Blue 4
5 PM Sun 63 58 NW 3 1849 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 59 54 NW 3 568 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 56 51 E 5 568 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 55 50 E 5 568 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 55 50 E 5 568 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 55 50 E 5 568 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 56 51 E 5 568 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 55 50 E 5 568 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 55 50 E 6 568 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 54 49 E 6 568 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 52 47 E 6 568 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 52 47 E 6 568 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 53 48 E 6 568 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 55 50 E 6 568 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 58 53 E 9 568 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 63 58 E 9 1849 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 68 63 E 9 3286 3200 0 Blue 5
10 AM Mon 72 68 SW 7 3449 3321 121 Blue 10
11 AM Mon 74 70 SW 7 3741 3357 157 Blue 12
12 Noon Mon 73 69 SW 7 3595 3339 139 Blue 11
1 PM Mon 74 70 W 7 3741 3357 157 Blue 12
2 PM Mon 73 69 W 7 3595 3339 139 Blue 11
3 PM Mon 72 67 W 7 3358 3303 103 Blue 9
4 PM Mon 71 66 SW 5 3340 3285 85 Blue 8
5 PM Mon 68 63 SW 5 3286 3200 0 Blue 5
6 PM Mon 64 59 SW 5 2274 3200 0 Blue 1
7 PM Mon 61 56 S 2 568 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 59 54 S 2 568 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 57 52 S 2 568 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 56 51 E 3 568 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 55 50 E 3 568 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 54 49 E 3 568 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 53 48 SE 3 568 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 53 48 SE 3 568 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 52 47 SE 3 568 3200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst