Detailed Predictions for: Palomar
Launch Altitude (f): 3200
LZ Altitude (f): 925
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

23 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 52 47 NE 1 525 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 51 46 E 2 525 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 52 47 E 2 525 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 55 50 S 3 525 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 57 53 S 3 525 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 60 57 SW 3 525 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 63 61 W 6 525 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 67 66 W 6 3691 3200 0 Blue 4
1 PM Sat 70 69 W 7 4913 3633 433 Blue 7
2 PM Sat 72 71 W 10 5246 4784 1584 Blue 9
3 PM Sat 71 69 W 10 4913 3633 433 Blue 7
4 PM Sat 71 68 W 10 4743 3274 74 White 6
5 PM Sat 69 64 W 8 3170 3200 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sat 65 60 W 8 525 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 60 55 W 6 525 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 58 53 N 2 525 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 58 53 N 3 525 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 57 52 N 3 525 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 57 52 NE 7 525 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 56 51 NE 8 525 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 56 51 NE 8 525 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 56 51 NE 9 525 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 55 50 NE 9 525 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 55 50 NE 9 525 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 55 50 E 9 525 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 54 49 E 9 525 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 55 50 E 10 525 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 59 54 E 7 525 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 62 59 SE 3 525 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 66 64 E 2 3170 3200 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 70 70 W 5 5030 4357 1157 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 74 75 W 5 6245 5495 2295 White 13
1 PM Sun 78 79 W 6 7092 6981 3781 White 17
2 PM Sun 80 80 W 10 7303 7303 4103 White 18
3 PM Sun 80 79 W 12 7092 6981 3781 White 17
4 PM Sun 80 77 W 12 6669 6248 3048 White 15
5 PM Sun 77 73 W 10 5819 5016 1816 White 11
6 PM Sun 72 67 W 9 4379 3200 0 Blue 5
7 PM Sun 65 60 W 7 525 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 63 58 N 2 525 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 62 57 N 3 525 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 61 56 NE 5 525 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 61 56 NE 8 525 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 60 55 E 7 525 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 60 55 NE 8 525 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 60 55 NE 10 525 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 59 54 NE 10 525 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 59 54 NE 9 525 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 58 53 NE 7 525 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 57 52 NE 7 525 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 58 53 NE 7 525 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 62 57 SE 1 525 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 65 61 SE 1 525 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 69 67 SE 1 4379 3200 0 Blue 5
11 AM Mon 74 74 W 9 6032 5218 2018 White 12
12 Noon Mon 78 79 W 9 7092 6981 3781 White 17
1 PM Mon 82 83 W 9 7934 7934 4734 White 21
2 PM Mon 84 84 W 12 8144 8144 4944 White 22
3 PM Mon 84 83 W 12 7934 7934 4734 White 21
4 PM Mon 84 81 W 12 7514 7514 4314 White 19
5 PM Mon 80 76 W 8 6457 5874 2674 White 14
6 PM Mon 74 69 W 8 4913 3633 433 Blue 7
7 PM Mon 67 62 W 8 1648 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 64 59 SE 10 525 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 63 58 SE 10 525 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 62 57 SE 10 525 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 61 56 NE 14 525 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 61 56 NE 14 525 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 60 55 NE 14 525 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 60 55 NE 16 525 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 59 54 NE 16 525 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 59 54 NE 16 525 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 59 54 NE 17 525 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 57 52 NE 17 525 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 58 53 NE 17 525 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 62 57 E 14 525 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 66 62 E 14 1648 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 69 67 E 14 4379 3200 0 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 74 73 W 8 5819 5016 1816 White 11
12 Noon Tue 79 79 W 8 7092 6981 3781 White 17
1 PM Tue 83 84 W 8 8144 8144 4944 White 22
2 PM Tue 85 85 W 14 8352 8352 5152 White 23
3 PM Tue 86 85 W 14 8352 8352 5152 White 23
4 PM Tue 84 81 W 14 7514 7514 4314 White 19
5 PM Tue 81 77 W 9 6669 6248 3048 White 15
6 PM Tue 76 71 W 9 5246 4784 1584 Blue 9
7 PM Tue 68 63 W 9 2780 3200 0 Blue 1
8 PM Tue 66 61 E 2 525 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 65 60 E 2 525 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 63 58 E 2 525 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 63 58 NE 6 525 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 62 57 NE 6 525 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 62 57 NE 6 525 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 62 57 NE 13 525 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 61 56 NE 13 525 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 61 56 NE 13 525 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 61 56 NE 18 525 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 59 54 NE 18 525 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 60 55 NE 18 525 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 64 59 NE 17 525 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 68 64 NE 17 3170 3200 0 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 71 69 NE 17 4913 3633 433 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 76 76 W 2 6457 5874 2674 White 14
12 Noon Wed 81 82 W 2 7724 7724 4524 White 20
1 PM Wed 85 86 W 2 8558 8558 5358 White 24
2 PM Wed 87 87 W 14 8764 8764 5564 White 25
3 PM Wed 88 87 W 14 8764 8764 5564 White 25
4 PM Wed 86 83 W 14 7934 7934 4734 White 21
5 PM Wed 83 79 W 10 7092 6981 3781 White 17
6 PM Wed 78 73 W 10 5819 5016 1816 White 11
7 PM Wed 70 65 W 10 3281 3200 0 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 68 63 NE 2 2780 3200 0 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 67 62 NE 2 1648 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 65 60 NE 2 525 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 65 60 NE 6 525 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 64 59 NE 6 525 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 64 59 NE 6 525 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 64 59 NE 15 525 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 63 58 NE 15 525 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 63 58 NE 15 525 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 63 58 NE 16 525 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 61 56 NE 16 525 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 62 57 NE 16 525 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 66 61 E 14 525 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 70 66 E 14 3691 3200 0 Blue 4
10 AM Thu 73 71 E 14 5246 4784 1584 Blue 9
11 AM Thu 78 78 NW 3 6881 6617 3417 White 16
12 Noon Thu 83 84 NW 3 8144 8144 4944 White 22
1 PM Thu 87 88 NW 3 8970 8970 5770 White 26
2 PM Thu 89 89 SW 12 9177 9177 5977 White 27
3 PM Thu 90 89 SW 12 9177 9177 5977 White 27
4 PM Thu 88 85 SW 12 8352 8352 5152 White 23
5 PM Thu 85 81 W 12 7514 7514 4314 White 19
6 PM Thu 80 75 W 12 6245 5495 2295 White 13
7 PM Thu 72 67 W 12 4379 3200 0 Blue 5
8 PM Thu 70 65 NE 3 3281 3200 0 Blue 3
9 PM Thu 69 64 NE 3 3170 3200 0 Blue 2
10 PM Thu 67 62 NE 3 1648 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 67 62 NE 10 1648 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 66 61 NE 10 525 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 66 61 NE 10 525 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 66 61 NE 10 525 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 65 60 NE 10 525 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 65 60 NE 10 525 3200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst