Detailed Predictions for: Palomar
Launch Altitude (f): 3200
LZ Altitude (f): 925
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

16 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 70 65 N 3 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 73 68 NE 3 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 77 72 NE 3 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 82 78 S 2 1522 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 85 83 SW 3 1752 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 88 88 SW 5 2537 3200 0 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 90 92 W 6 3938 3200 0 Blue 8
12 Noon Tue 92 95 W 7 4802 3915 715 Blue 11
1 PM Tue 93 96 W 9 5074 4202 1002 Blue 12
2 PM Tue 92 95 W 10 4802 3915 715 Blue 11
3 PM Tue 92 94 W 10 4515 3542 342 Blue 10
4 PM Tue 91 91 W 9 3583 3200 0 Blue 7
5 PM Tue 88 86 W 9 2197 3200 0 Blue 2
6 PM Tue 85 81 W 7 1660 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 81 76 W 6 1431 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 77 72 SE 3 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 74 69 SE 2 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 72 67 SE 2 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 71 66 E 2 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 70 65 E 2 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 69 64 E 3 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 68 63 E 3 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 66 61 E 3 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 65 60 E 3 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 65 60 E 3 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 68 63 SE 3 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 72 67 SE 3 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 77 73 S 3 1293 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 80 78 S 5 1522 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 84 84 SW 7 1859 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 86 88 SW 8 2537 3200 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Wed 87 90 SW 9 2958 3200 0 Blue 6
1 PM Wed 87 90 SW 9 2958 3200 0 Blue 6
2 PM Wed 88 91 SW 10 3583 3200 0 Blue 7
3 PM Wed 87 88 SW 10 2537 3200 0 Blue 4
4 PM Wed 85 84 SW 9 1859 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 83 81 SW 8 1660 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 79 75 SW 7 1385 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 76 71 S 6 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 72 67 S 5 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 69 64 S 3 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 67 62 SE 3 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 66 61 SE 3 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 65 60 SE 3 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 64 59 SE 2 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 63 58 SE 2 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 62 57 SE 2 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 61 56 SE 2 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 61 56 SE 2 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 64 59 SE 2 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 67 62 S 2 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 71 67 S 2 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 74 72 SW 3 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 76 76 SW 5 1431 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 78 79 SW 7 1568 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 80 82 SW 8 1706 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 81 83 W 8 1752 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 81 83 W 9 1752 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 82 82 W 9 1706 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 81 80 W 9 1614 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 78 75 W 8 1385 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 75 71 W 7 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 71 66 SW 5 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 68 63 SW 3 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 65 60 S 2 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 63 58 SE 2 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 62 57 E 2 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 62 57 E 2 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 61 56 E 2 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 60 55 E 2 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 59 54 E 2 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 58 53 E 2 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 58 53 E 2 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 60 55 E 2 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 64 59 E 2 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 68 64 SW 2 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 71 69 SW 2 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 74 73 SW 2 1293 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 77 79 SW 6 1568 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 79 82 SW 6 1706 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 80 83 SW 6 1752 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 80 83 W 8 1752 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 81 83 W 8 1752 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 80 80 W 8 1614 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 77 75 W 8 1385 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 74 70 W 8 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 70 65 W 8 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 67 62 SW 3 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 65 60 SW 3 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 63 58 SW 3 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 62 57 N 2 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 61 56 N 2 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 61 56 N 2 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 60 55 NE 2 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 59 54 NE 2 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 58 53 NE 2 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 58 53 N 2 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 60 55 N 2 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 63 58 N 2 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 66 62 W 2 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 70 67 W 2 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 73 72 W 2 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 76 77 W 7 1476 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 79 82 W 7 1706 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 80 83 W 7 1752 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 80 82 W 9 1706 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 81 82 W 9 1706 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 80 79 W 9 1568 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 77 74 W 7 1339 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 74 70 W 7 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 70 65 W 7 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 67 62 NW 3 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 65 60 NW 3 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 64 59 NW 3 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 64 59 NE 2 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 63 58 NE 2 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 63 58 NE 2 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 62 57 E 2 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 61 56 E 2 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 60 55 E 2 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 61 56 NE 2 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 63 58 NE 2 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 67 62 NE 2 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 72 68 NW 2 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 76 74 NW 2 1339 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 80 80 NW 2 1614 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 82 82 W 6 1706 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 84 86 W 6 2197 3200 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sun 83 85 W 6 2028 3200 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sun 84 85 W 8 2028 3200 0 Blue 1
3 PM Sun 83 83 W 8 1752 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 82 81 W 8 1660 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 80 77 W 7 1476 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 78 74 W 7 1339 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 76 71 W 7 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 74 69 N 2 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 72 67 N 2 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 71 66 N 2 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 70 65 E 1 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 69 64 E 1 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 68 63 E 1 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 67 62 NE 2 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 66 61 NE 2 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 66 61 NE 2 1266 3200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst