Detailed Predictions for: Palomar
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.329, -116.97225, 3200
LZ Altitude (f): 925
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

27 FEB 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 48 43 SE 2 4 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 47 42 SE 2 4 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 46 41 SE 1 3 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 46 41 SE 1 3 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 45 40 SE 1 3 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 44 39 SE 1 2 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 45 40 SE 1 4 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 46 41 ESE 2 4 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 47 43 E 2 6 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 51 48 SSE 3 6 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 55 54 SSW 4 5 1511 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 59 59 W 5 5 2431 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 61 61 W 5 6 2822 3200 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sat 63 63 W 6 6 3217 3200 0 Blue 4
2 PM Sat 64 62 WSW 6 7 3019 3200 0 Blue 3
3 PM Sat 63 60 WSW 6 7 2624 3200 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sat 63 58 WSW 7 8 2248 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 62 57 WSW 7 8 2064 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 60 55 SSW 5 6 1696 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 57 52 S 3 4 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 55 50 SE 1 2 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 53 48 ESE 1 3 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 51 46 ESE 2 4 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 49 44 E 2 6 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 48 43 E 4 8 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 48 43 ENE 4 10 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 47 42 ENE 6 12 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 46 41 ENE 6 14 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 46 41 ENE 7 15 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 46 41 ENE 8 17 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 46 41 ENE 8 18 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 46 41 ENE 9 19 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 46 42 ENE 9 20 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 51 48 ENE 10 17 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 55 54 ENE 10 15 1511 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 60 60 ENE 10 12 2624 3200 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sun 61 61 ENE 10 12 2822 3200 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sun 63 62 E 10 12 3019 3200 0 Blue 3
2 PM Sun 64 62 E 10 12 3019 3200 0 Blue 3
3 PM Sun 64 61 E 10 11 2822 3200 0 Blue 2
4 PM Sun 63 58 E 10 11 2248 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 62 57 E 10 11 2064 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 60 55 E 9 13 1696 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 57 52 E 8 14 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 55 50 ENE 7 16 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 53 48 ENE 7 15 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 51 46 ENE 7 15 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 50 45 ENE 7 15 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 48 43 ENE 7 15 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 46 41 ENE 7 15 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 44 39 ENE 7 15 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 44 39 ENE 7 15 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 43 38 ENE 7 15 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 43 38 ENE 7 15 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 44 39 ENE 7 15 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 45 40 ENE 7 15 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 46 42 ENE 7 15 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 51 48 E 6 12 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 57 56 E 6 9 1880 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 62 62 E 5 5 3019 3200 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Mon 65 65 ESE 4 4 3610 3200 0 Blue 6
1 PM Mon 68 68 SSE 3 3 4196 3596 396 Blue 9
2 PM Mon 70 68 S 2 2 4196 3596 396 Blue 9
3 PM Mon 68 65 SSW 3 3 3610 3200 0 Blue 6
4 PM Mon 66 61 WSW 4 5 2822 3200 0 Blue 2
5 PM Mon 63 58 W 5 6 2248 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 62 57 SW 4 6 2064 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 61 56 SSE 3 5 1880 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 60 55 E 2 5 1696 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 58 53 E 2 5 1327 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 56 51 E 2 5 1322 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 54 49 ENE 2 6 1322 3200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst