Detailed Predictions for: Palomar
Launch Altitude (f): 3200
LZ Altitude (f): 925
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Thu 47 42 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 48 43 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 47 42 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 47 42 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 48 43 SE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 52 47 SE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 55 50 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 57 52 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 59 54 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 60 55 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 59 54 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 60 55 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 58 53 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 54 49 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 51 46 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 50 45 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 48 43 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 48 43 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 47 42 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 46 41 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 45 40 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 45 40 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 45 40 E 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 45 40 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 44 39 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 45 40 SE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 44 39 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 44 39 NE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 46 41 NW 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 52 47 NW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 57 53 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 61 58 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 63 60 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 65 62 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 64 60 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 64 59 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 63 58 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 59 54 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 55 50 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 53 48 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 52 47 NE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 51 46 NE 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 50 45 NE 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 49 44 NE 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 48 43 NE 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 48 43 NE 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 48 43 NE 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 48 43 NE 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 47 42 NE 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 48 43 NE 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 47 42 NE 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 47 42 NE 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 50 45 E 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 59 55 NE 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 66 63 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 71 68 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 74 72 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 76 73 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 76 72 E 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 76 72 NE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 74 69 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 67 62 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 61 56 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 58 53 E 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 56 51 E 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 55 50 E 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 54 49 E 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 51 46 E 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 50 45 E 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 49 44 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 49 44 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 49 44 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 48 43 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 49 44 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 48 43 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 48 43 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 50 45 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 58 53 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 64 60 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 69 65 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 72 68 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 74 70 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 74 70 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 73 68 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 71 66 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 64 59 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 58 53 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 56 51 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 53 48 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 53 48 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 52 47 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 49 44 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 48 43 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 47 42 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 47 42 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 47 42 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 46 41 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 47 42 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 46 41 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 46 41 NE 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 48 43 NE 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 54 49 NE 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 58 55 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 62 59 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 64 62 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 66 63 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 66 63 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 65 61 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 64 59 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 58 53 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 54 49 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 52 47 NE 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 50 45 NE 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 49 44 NE 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 48 43 NE 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 46 41 NE 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 45 40 NE 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 45 40 E 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 45 40 E 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 45 40 E 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 44 39 E 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 45 40 E 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 44 39 E 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 44 39 E 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 46 41 E 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 53 49 E 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 59 56 E 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 63 60 E 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 66 64 E 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 68 65 E 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 68 65 E 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 67 63 E 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 66 61 E 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 59 54 E 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 53 48 E 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 51 46 E 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 49 44 E 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 48 43 E 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 47 42 E 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 45 40 E 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 43 38 E 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 43 38 E 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 43 38 E 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 43 38 E 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst