Detailed Predictions for: Palomar
Launch Altitude (f): 3200
LZ Altitude (f): 925
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

22 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 63 58 NE 3 1148 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 65 60 NE 3 1148 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 68 63 N 2 1148 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 73 69 NW 3 1608 3200 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sun 78 75 W 5 2027 3200 0 Blue 7
10 AM Sun 82 81 W 5 3107 3200 0 Blue 13
11 AM Sun 86 87 W 8 4010 3433 233 Blue 19
12 Noon Sun 88 91 W 8 4968 4177 977 Blue 23
1 PM Sun 89 92 W 7 5343 4287 1087 Blue 24
2 PM Sun 90 92 W 8 5343 4287 1087 Blue 24
3 PM Sun 89 90 W 7 4408 3986 786 Blue 22
4 PM Sun 89 88 W 7 4187 3543 343 Blue 20
5 PM Sun 86 83 W 6 3329 3200 0 Blue 15
6 PM Sun 81 77 W 6 2355 3200 0 Blue 9
7 PM Sun 75 70 W 5 1672 3200 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sun 70 65 NW 2 1200 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 68 63 N 2 1148 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 68 63 N 2 1148 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 69 64 N 5 1148 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 68 63 NE 5 1148 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 67 62 N 3 1148 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 66 61 N 3 1148 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 65 60 N 3 1148 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 65 60 N 3 1148 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 66 61 NE 3 1148 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 68 63 NE 3 1148 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 71 66 N 2 1320 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 76 72 W 2 1788 3200 0 Blue 4
9 AM Mon 81 78 W 2 2535 3200 0 Blue 10
10 AM Mon 87 86 W 3 3708 3322 122 Blue 18
11 AM Mon 92 93 W 7 5444 4397 1197 Blue 25
12 Noon Mon 94 97 W 7 6791 5532 2332 Blue 29
1 PM Mon 96 99 W 7 7483 6019 2819 Blue 31
2 PM Mon 97 99 W 7 7483 6019 2819 Blue 31
3 PM Mon 96 97 W 7 6791 5532 2332 Blue 29
4 PM Mon 96 95 W 7 5751 5330 2130 Blue 27
5 PM Mon 94 91 W 6 4968 4177 977 Blue 23
6 PM Mon 89 85 W 5 3551 3212 12 Blue 17
7 PM Mon 83 78 W 5 2535 3200 0 Blue 10
8 PM Mon 78 73 NW 1 1861 3200 0 Blue 5
9 PM Mon 75 70 N 1 1672 3200 0 Blue 2
10 PM Mon 74 69 N 2 1608 3200 0 Blue 1
11 PM Mon 74 69 N 3 1608 3200 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Tue 73 68 NE 3 1544 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 72 67 N 3 1440 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 71 66 N 5 1320 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 70 65 N 3 1200 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 69 64 N 3 1148 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 70 65 NE 5 1200 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 73 68 NE 5 1544 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 77 72 N 2 1788 3200 0 Blue 4
8 AM Tue 82 78 W 3 2535 3200 0 Blue 10
9 AM Tue 87 85 W 3 3551 3212 12 Blue 17
10 AM Tue 91 90 W 5 4408 3986 786 Blue 22
11 AM Tue 95 96 W 7 6076 5431 2231 Blue 28
12 Noon Tue 98 101 W 8 8645 7020 3820 Blue 33
1 PM Tue 100 103 W 8 9262 8022 4822 Blue 35
2 PM Tue 101 104 W 9 9432 8560 5360 Blue 36
3 PM Tue 101 102 W 8 9014 7350 4150 Blue 34
4 PM Tue 101 100 W 8 8162 6401 3201 Blue 32
5 PM Tue 99 96 W 7 6076 5431 2231 Blue 28
6 PM Tue 94 90 SW 5 4408 3986 786 Blue 22
7 PM Tue 89 84 S 2 3440 3200 0 Blue 16
8 PM Tue 84 79 SE 1 2828 3200 0 Blue 11
9 PM Tue 81 76 SE 2 2126 3200 0 Blue 8
10 PM Tue 80 75 NE 5 2027 3200 0 Blue 7
11 PM Tue 80 75 NE 6 2027 3200 0 Blue 7
12 Midnight Wed 79 74 N 7 1956 3200 0 Blue 6
1 AM Wed 79 74 N 7 1956 3200 0 Blue 6
2 AM Wed 77 72 N 6 1788 3200 0 Blue 4
3 AM Wed 75 70 N 6 1672 3200 0 Blue 2
4 AM Wed 74 69 NE 6 1608 3200 0 Blue 1
5 AM Wed 75 70 NE 6 1672 3200 0 Blue 2
6 AM Wed 78 73 NE 6 1861 3200 0 Blue 5
7 AM Wed 84 79 NE 6 2828 3200 0 Blue 11
8 AM Wed 89 85 W 5 3551 3212 12 Blue 17
9 AM Wed 92 89 W 5 4297 3686 486 Blue 21
10 AM Wed 95 94 W 5 5546 4906 1706 Blue 26
11 AM Wed 97 98 W 8 7069 5712 2512 Blue 30
12 Noon Wed 100 102 W 8 9014 7350 4150 Blue 34
1 PM Wed 102 105 W 8 9844 8926 5726 Blue 37
2 PM Wed 104 106 W 10 10123 9220 6020 Blue 38
3 PM Wed 104 105 W 10 9844 8926 5726 Blue 37
4 PM Wed 103 102 W 10 9014 7350 4150 Blue 34
5 PM Wed 100 97 W 7 6791 5532 2332 Blue 29
6 PM Wed 95 91 W 7 4968 4177 977 Blue 23
7 PM Wed 90 85 W 7 3551 3212 12 Blue 17
8 PM Wed 86 81 SW 0 3107 3200 0 Blue 13
9 PM Wed 82 77 SW 0 2355 3200 0 Blue 9
10 PM Wed 81 76 SW 0 2126 3200 0 Blue 8
11 PM Wed 80 75 N 2 2027 3200 0 Blue 7
12 Midnight Thu 80 75 N 2 2027 3200 0 Blue 7
1 AM Thu 80 75 N 2 2027 3200 0 Blue 7
2 AM Thu 79 74 NE 5 1956 3200 0 Blue 6
3 AM Thu 77 72 NE 5 1788 3200 0 Blue 4
4 AM Thu 75 70 NE 5 1672 3200 0 Blue 2
5 AM Thu 74 69 NE 3 1608 3200 0 Blue 1
6 AM Thu 76 71 NE 3 1732 3200 0 Blue 3
7 AM Thu 80 75 NE 3 2027 3200 0 Blue 7
8 AM Thu 84 80 W 3 3009 3200 0 Blue 12
9 AM Thu 88 85 W 3 3551 3212 12 Blue 17
10 AM Thu 91 90 W 3 4408 3986 786 Blue 22
11 AM Thu 93 94 W 9 5546 4906 1706 Blue 26
12 Noon Thu 95 98 W 9 7069 5712 2512 Blue 30
1 PM Thu 96 99 W 9 7483 6019 2819 Blue 31
2 PM Thu 96 98 W 10 7069 5712 2512 Blue 30
3 PM Thu 96 97 W 10 6791 5532 2332 Blue 29
4 PM Thu 95 94 W 10 5546 4906 1706 Blue 26
5 PM Thu 93 90 SW 7 4408 3986 786 Blue 22
6 PM Thu 90 86 SW 7 3708 3322 122 Blue 18
7 PM Thu 86 81 SW 7 3107 3200 0 Blue 13
8 PM Thu 82 77 S 1 2355 3200 0 Blue 9
9 PM Thu 78 73 S 1 1861 3200 0 Blue 5
10 PM Thu 75 70 S 1 1672 3200 0 Blue 2
11 PM Thu 73 68 NE 1 1544 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 72 67 NE 1 1440 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 72 67 NE 1 1440 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 72 67 E 1 1440 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 70 65 E 1 1200 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 69 64 E 1 1148 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 69 64 NE 1 1148 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 72 67 NE 1 1440 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 76 71 NE 1 1732 3200 0 Blue 3
8 AM Fri 81 77 SW 2 2355 3200 0 Blue 9
9 AM Fri 85 82 SW 2 3218 3200 0 Blue 14
10 AM Fri 88 87 SW 2 4010 3433 233 Blue 19
11 AM Fri 91 91 W 8 4968 4177 977 Blue 23
12 Noon Fri 92 93 W 8 5444 4397 1197 Blue 25
1 PM Fri 92 94 W 8 5546 4906 1706 Blue 26
2 PM Fri 92 93 W 10 5444 4397 1197 Blue 25
3 PM Fri 92 92 W 10 5343 4287 1087 Blue 24
4 PM Fri 91 90 W 10 4408 3986 786 Blue 22
5 PM Fri 89 86 SW 7 3708 3322 122 Blue 18
6 PM Fri 86 82 SW 7 3218 3200 0 Blue 14
7 PM Fri 81 76 SW 7 2126 3200 0 Blue 8
8 PM Fri 77 72 W 1 1788 3200 0 Blue 4
9 PM Fri 74 69 W 1 1608 3200 0 Blue 1
10 PM Fri 72 67 W 1 1440 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 71 66 N 2 1320 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 71 66 N 2 1320 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 71 66 N 2 1320 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 70 65 NE 2 1200 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 70 65 NE 2 1200 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 69 64 NE 2 1148 3200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst