Detailed Predictions for: Soboba
Launch Altitude (f): 2260
LZ Altitude (f): 1520
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

26 APR 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 50 45 E 0 1729 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 51 46 E 1 1784 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 53 48 E 1 1871 2260 0 Blue 1
8 AM Thu 57 53 SW 2 1981 2260 0 Blue 6
9 AM Thu 61 58 SW 2 2243 2260 0 Blue 11
10 AM Thu 66 65 W 3 2626 2450 190 Blue 18
11 AM Thu 70 70 W 6 3563 2986 726 Blue 23
12 Noon Thu 74 75 W 6 4148 3834 1574 Blue 28
1 PM Thu 78 79 W 6 5075 4245 1985 Blue 32
2 PM Thu 80 80 W 8 5323 4456 2196 Blue 33
3 PM Thu 80 79 W 9 5075 4245 1985 Blue 32
4 PM Thu 80 78 SW 10 4801 4140 1880 Blue 31
5 PM Thu 78 74 SW 10 4043 3740 1480 Blue 27
6 PM Thu 74 69 SW 9 3303 2789 529 Blue 22
7 PM Thu 69 64 SW 8 2557 2397 137 Blue 17
8 PM Thu 64 59 S 6 2298 2260 0 Blue 12
9 PM Thu 60 55 S 5 2024 2260 0 Blue 8
10 PM Thu 57 52 S 3 1959 2260 0 Blue 5
11 PM Thu 55 50 S 2 1915 2260 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Fri 53 48 S 2 1871 2260 0 Blue 1
1 AM Fri 51 46 S 2 1784 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 50 45 S 2 1729 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 49 44 S 2 1716 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 48 43 S 2 1716 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 48 43 S 1 1716 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 48 43 S 1 1716 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 50 45 S 0 1729 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 52 47 SW 2 1838 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 57 52 SW 3 1959 2260 0 Blue 5
10 AM Fri 63 58 SW 3 2243 2260 0 Blue 11
11 AM Fri 68 69 SW 6 3303 2789 529 Blue 22
12 Noon Fri 73 75 SW 7 4148 3834 1574 Blue 28
1 PM Fri 76 79 SW 7 5075 4245 1985 Blue 32
2 PM Fri 78 80 SW 9 5323 4456 2196 Blue 33
3 PM Fri 77 77 SW 10 4483 4035 1775 Blue 30
4 PM Fri 77 75 SW 13 4148 3834 1574 Blue 28
5 PM Fri 74 70 SW 13 3563 2986 726 Blue 23
6 PM Fri 71 66 SW 10 2797 2503 243 Blue 19
7 PM Fri 67 62 S 8 2451 2297 37 Blue 15
8 PM Fri 63 58 S 6 2243 2260 0 Blue 11
9 PM Fri 59 54 S 5 2003 2260 0 Blue 7
10 PM Fri 56 51 S 3 1937 2260 0 Blue 4
11 PM Fri 54 49 S 2 1893 2260 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sat 52 47 S 2 1838 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 51 46 S 2 1784 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 50 45 S 2 1729 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 48 43 S 2 1716 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 48 43 S 2 1716 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 47 42 S 1 1716 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 47 42 S 2 1716 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 49 44 SW 2 1716 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 52 47 SW 3 1838 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 56 52 SW 3 1959 2260 0 Blue 5
10 AM Sat 61 58 SW 5 2243 2260 0 Blue 11
11 AM Sat 66 67 SW 6 2992 2556 296 Blue 20
12 Noon Sat 70 72 W 8 3841 3296 1036 Blue 25
1 PM Sat 72 74 W 9 4043 3740 1480 Blue 27
2 PM Sat 74 75 W 12 4148 3834 1574 Blue 28
3 PM Sat 74 74 W 12 4043 3740 1480 Blue 27
4 PM Sat 75 73 W 10 3937 3547 1287 Blue 26
5 PM Sat 73 69 SW 9 3303 2789 529 Blue 22
6 PM Sat 70 65 SW 9 2626 2450 190 Blue 18
7 PM Sat 66 61 S 9 2398 2260 0 Blue 14
8 PM Sat 62 57 S 9 2169 2260 0 Blue 10
9 PM Sat 59 54 S 8 2003 2260 0 Blue 7
10 PM Sat 56 51 S 7 1937 2260 0 Blue 4
11 PM Sat 53 48 S 6 1871 2260 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sun 50 45 S 5 1729 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 48 43 S 5 1716 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 47 42 SW 3 1716 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 47 42 SW 3 1716 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 48 43 SW 2 1716 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 48 43 SW 1 1716 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 49 44 SW 1 1716 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 49 44 SW 1 1716 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 51 46 SW 7 1784 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 55 50 SW 7 1915 2260 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 59 55 SW 7 2024 2260 0 Blue 8
11 AM Sun 64 64 W 12 2557 2397 137 Blue 17
12 Noon Sun 68 69 W 12 3303 2789 529 Blue 22
1 PM Sun 71 72 W 12 3841 3296 1036 Blue 25
2 PM Sun 73 74 W 13 4043 3740 1480 Blue 27
3 PM Sun 74 73 W 13 3937 3547 1287 Blue 26
4 PM Sun 74 72 W 13 3841 3296 1036 Blue 25
5 PM Sun 72 68 W 13 3148 2623 363 Blue 21
6 PM Sun 70 65 W 13 2626 2450 190 Blue 18
7 PM Sun 66 61 W 13 2398 2260 0 Blue 14
8 PM Sun 62 57 SW 9 2169 2260 0 Blue 10
9 PM Sun 59 54 SW 9 2003 2260 0 Blue 7
10 PM Sun 56 51 SW 9 1937 2260 0 Blue 4
11 PM Sun 55 50 S 5 1915 2260 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Mon 54 49 S 5 1893 2260 0 Blue 2
1 AM Mon 53 48 S 5 1871 2260 0 Blue 1
2 AM Mon 52 47 SW 2 1838 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 51 46 SW 2 1784 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 50 45 SW 2 1729 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 49 44 SW 2 1716 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 50 45 SW 2 1729 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 51 46 SW 2 1784 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 54 49 SW 7 1893 2260 0 Blue 2
9 AM Mon 57 52 SW 7 1959 2260 0 Blue 5
10 AM Mon 60 56 SW 7 2056 2260 0 Blue 9
11 AM Mon 64 63 SW 13 2504 2347 87 Blue 16
12 Noon Mon 67 66 SW 13 2797 2503 243 Blue 19
1 PM Mon 69 68 SW 13 3148 2623 363 Blue 21
2 PM Mon 70 69 SW 15 3303 2789 529 Blue 22
3 PM Mon 70 68 SW 15 3148 2623 363 Blue 21
4 PM Mon 69 66 SW 15 2797 2503 243 Blue 19
5 PM Mon 67 63 SW 14 2504 2347 87 Blue 16
6 PM Mon 63 58 SW 14 2243 2260 0 Blue 11
7 PM Mon 60 55 SW 14 2024 2260 0 Blue 8
8 PM Mon 56 51 S 10 1937 2260 0 Blue 4
9 PM Mon 54 49 S 10 1893 2260 0 Blue 2
10 PM Mon 52 47 S 10 1838 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 51 46 S 7 1784 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 51 46 S 7 1784 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 51 46 S 7 1784 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 51 46 S 6 1784 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 51 46 S 6 1784 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 50 45 S 6 1729 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 50 45 S 6 1729 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 49 44 S 6 1716 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 49 44 S 6 1716 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 45 SW 6 1729 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 52 47 SW 6 1838 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 55 50 SW 6 1915 2260 0 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 59 56 SW 7 2056 2260 0 Blue 9
12 Noon Tue 62 59 SW 7 2298 2260 0 Blue 12
1 PM Tue 66 63 SW 7 2504 2347 87 Blue 16
2 PM Tue 67 64 SW 10 2557 2397 137 Blue 17
3 PM Tue 68 64 SW 10 2557 2397 137 Blue 17
4 PM Tue 67 63 SW 10 2504 2347 87 Blue 16
5 PM Tue 66 61 SW 12 2398 2260 0 Blue 14
6 PM Tue 63 58 SW 12 2243 2260 0 Blue 11
7 PM Tue 60 55 SW 12 2024 2260 0 Blue 8
8 PM Tue 57 52 SW 9 1959 2260 0 Blue 5
9 PM Tue 56 51 SW 9 1937 2260 0 Blue 4
10 PM Tue 55 50 SW 9 1915 2260 0 Blue 3
11 PM Tue 53 48 S 6 1871 2260 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Wed 51 46 S 6 1784 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 49 44 S 6 1716 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 48 43 S 3 1716 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 48 43 S 3 1716 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 49 44 S 3 1716 2260 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst