Detailed Predictions for: Soboba
Launch Altitude (f): 2260
LZ Altitude (f): 1520
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

13 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 56 51 E 2 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 56 51 E 2 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 57 52 E 2 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 60 55 E 2 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 63 58 E 1 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 68 64 SW 1 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 72 68 SW 3 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 76 72 SW 5 1817 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 78 74 SW 5 2038 2260 0 Blue 2
1 PM Wed 78 74 W 7 2038 2260 0 Blue 2
2 PM Wed 79 74 W 7 2038 2260 0 Blue 2
3 PM Wed 77 72 W 8 1817 2260 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 74 69 SW 8 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 69 64 SW 6 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 65 60 SW 5 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 61 56 S 2 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 58 53 SE 2 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 58 53 SE 2 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 57 52 SE 2 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 57 52 SE 2 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 57 52 E 1 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 58 53 E 1 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 58 53 E 1 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 58 53 SE 1 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 57 52 E 1 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 56 51 E 1 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 56 51 E 2 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 57 52 SE 2 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 60 55 SE 2 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 65 60 S 3 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 69 65 SW 5 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 73 69 SW 5 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 76 72 SW 6 1817 2260 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 76 72 SW 7 1817 2260 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 76 71 SW 7 1735 2260 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 76 71 SW 8 1735 2260 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 73 68 SW 8 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 69 64 SW 7 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 65 60 S 5 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 62 57 S 3 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 60 55 S 2 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 59 54 S 1 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 59 54 SE 1 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 58 53 S 1 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 58 53 W 1 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 57 52 NW 1 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 56 51 N 1 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 55 50 E 1 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 54 49 SE 1 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 53 48 E 1 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 53 48 NE 1 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 54 49 NE 1 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 57 52 N 2 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 60 55 NW 3 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 64 61 W 5 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 68 65 W 6 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 71 68 W 6 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 73 70 W 6 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 75 71 W 7 1735 2260 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 74 69 W 7 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 73 68 W 6 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 68 63 W 5 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 61 56 SW 3 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 56 51 SW 2 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 53 48 W 2 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 53 48 N 2 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 54 49 NE 3 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 55 50 NE 5 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 56 51 E 6 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 57 52 E 7 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 57 52 E 8 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 57 52 E 9 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 56 51 E 9 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 56 51 E 9 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 58 53 E 9 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 60 55 E 8 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 64 59 E 8 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 70 66 E 8 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 74 71 SE 2 1735 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 78 76 SE 2 2260 2260 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 80 78 SE 2 2804 2260 0 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 80 78 E 15 2804 2260 0 Blue 6
2 PM Sat 80 77 E 15 2445 2260 0 Blue 5
3 PM Sat 79 75 E 15 2149 2260 0 Blue 3
4 PM Sat 77 72 E 16 1817 2260 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 75 70 E 16 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 72 67 E 16 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 69 64 E 14 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 63 58 E 14 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 58 53 E 14 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 56 51 E 12 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 58 53 E 12 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 62 57 E 12 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 65 60 E 18 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 65 60 E 18 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 63 58 E 18 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 62 57 NE 17 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 62 57 NE 17 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 63 58 NE 17 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 66 61 NE 21 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 69 64 NE 21 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 73 69 NE 21 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 76 73 E 18 1928 2260 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 79 77 E 18 2445 2260 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Sun 80 78 E 18 2804 2260 0 Blue 6
1 PM Sun 82 79 NE 12 3342 2260 0 Blue 7
2 PM Sun 81 78 NE 12 2804 2260 0 Blue 6
3 PM Sun 81 77 NE 12 2445 2260 0 Blue 5
4 PM Sun 79 74 E 12 2038 2260 0 Blue 2
5 PM Sun 74 69 E 12 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 69 64 E 12 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 65 60 NE 10 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 62 57 NE 10 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 61 56 NE 10 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 60 55 NE 9 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 59 54 NE 9 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 57 52 NE 9 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 56 51 SE 6 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 55 50 SE 6 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 54 49 SE 6 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 54 49 E 5 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 55 50 E 5 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 57 52 E 5 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 60 55 E 3 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 64 59 E 3 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 69 65 E 3 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 73 70 SW 5 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 76 74 SW 5 2038 2260 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Mon 78 76 SW 5 2260 2260 0 Blue 4
1 PM Mon 80 77 W 7 2445 2260 0 Blue 5
2 PM Mon 80 76 W 7 2260 2260 0 Blue 4
3 PM Mon 81 76 W 7 2260 2260 0 Blue 4
4 PM Mon 79 74 W 7 2038 2260 0 Blue 2
5 PM Mon 74 69 W 7 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 68 63 W 7 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 63 58 SE 5 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 61 56 SE 5 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 60 55 SE 5 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 60 55 SE 3 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 60 55 SE 3 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 60 55 SE 3 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 59 54 NW 1 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 58 53 NW 1 1657 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 57 52 NW 1 1657 2260 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst