Detailed Predictions for: Soboba
Launch Altitude (f): 2260
LZ Altitude (f): 1520
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

24 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 62 57 E 1 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 64 59 E 1 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 66 61 E 1 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 70 66 SW 1 1605 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 74 71 W 2 1713 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 80 79 W 2 2379 2260 0 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 84 85 W 5 3906 3173 913 Blue 12
12 Noon Sat 89 91 W 3 5781 4451 2191 Blue 18
1 PM Sat 92 95 W 3 7015 6175 3915 Blue 22
2 PM Sat 94 96 W 5 7260 6545 4285 Blue 23
3 PM Sat 94 95 SW 7 7015 6175 3915 Blue 22
4 PM Sat 94 93 SW 12 6578 5262 3002 Blue 20
5 PM Sat 92 89 SW 13 4780 4024 1764 Blue 16
6 PM Sat 86 81 SW 12 2884 2260 0 Blue 8
7 PM Sat 80 75 SW 10 1953 2260 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 74 69 S 7 1670 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 71 66 S 5 1605 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 70 65 S 3 1583 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 69 64 SW 1 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 68 63 S 0 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 68 63 E 0 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 67 62 SE 0 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 66 61 E 1 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 65 60 E 1 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 65 60 E 1 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 66 61 E 2 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 69 64 E 1 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 72 67 W 1 1627 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 76 73 SW 2 1757 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 80 79 SW 3 2379 2260 0 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 85 86 W 6 4033 3432 1172 Blue 13
12 Noon Sun 89 91 W 6 5781 4451 2191 Blue 18
1 PM Sun 93 95 W 7 7015 6175 3915 Blue 22
2 PM Sun 95 97 W 8 7542 6762 4502 Blue 24
3 PM Sun 95 95 W 9 7015 6175 3915 Blue 22
4 PM Sun 95 94 SW 12 6797 5723 3463 Blue 21
5 PM Sun 92 88 SW 12 4466 3898 1638 Blue 15
6 PM Sun 87 82 SW 10 3187 2375 115 Blue 9
7 PM Sun 82 77 SW 9 2155 2260 0 Blue 4
8 PM Sun 77 72 S 7 1735 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 74 69 S 6 1670 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 72 67 S 3 1627 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 71 66 S 2 1605 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 69 64 S 2 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 68 63 S 1 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 67 62 SW 1 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 66 61 SE 0 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 65 60 SE 1 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 65 60 SE 1 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 66 61 SE 2 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 68 63 SE 2 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 71 66 S 2 1605 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 75 71 SW 3 1713 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 79 76 SW 3 2054 2260 0 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 84 83 SW 5 3441 2571 311 Blue 10
12 Noon Mon 88 88 W 6 4466 3898 1638 Blue 15
1 PM Mon 92 92 W 7 6238 4717 2457 Blue 19
2 PM Mon 95 94 W 8 6797 5723 3463 Blue 21
3 PM Mon 95 94 W 9 6797 5723 3463 Blue 21
4 PM Mon 95 92 SW 13 6238 4717 2457 Blue 19
5 PM Mon 92 88 SW 14 4466 3898 1638 Blue 15
6 PM Mon 87 82 SW 12 3187 2375 115 Blue 9
7 PM Mon 81 76 SW 10 2054 2260 0 Blue 3
8 PM Mon 76 71 S 7 1713 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 73 68 S 6 1648 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 72 67 S 5 1627 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 71 66 SW 2 1605 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 70 65 SW 1 1583 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 68 63 W 1 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 67 62 NW 1 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 66 61 NW 1 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 65 60 W 0 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 65 60 W 1 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 67 62 W 1 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 69 64 W 1 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 73 68 W 1 1648 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 77 74 W 1 1852 2260 0 Blue 1
10 AM Tue 82 80 W 1 2579 2260 0 Blue 7
11 AM Tue 87 88 SW 5 4466 3898 1638 Blue 15
12 Noon Tue 92 94 SW 5 6797 5723 3463 Blue 21
1 PM Tue 95 97 SW 5 7542 6762 4502 Blue 24
2 PM Tue 96 98 SW 7 7822 6979 4719 Blue 25
3 PM Tue 97 98 SW 7 7822 6979 4719 Blue 25
4 PM Tue 94 93 SW 7 6578 5262 3002 Blue 20
5 PM Tue 90 87 SW 9 4159 3610 1350 Blue 14
6 PM Tue 86 81 SW 9 2884 2260 0 Blue 8
7 PM Tue 81 76 SW 9 2054 2260 0 Blue 3
8 PM Tue 77 72 SW 6 1735 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 74 69 SW 6 1670 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 71 66 SW 6 1605 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 69 64 W 1 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 68 63 W 1 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 67 62 W 1 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 66 61 W 1 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 65 60 W 1 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 65 60 W 1 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 65 60 W 1 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 66 61 W 1 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 68 63 W 1 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 71 67 W 1 1627 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 75 72 W 1 1735 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 80 79 W 1 2379 2260 0 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 85 86 SW 6 4033 3432 1172 Blue 13
12 Noon Wed 89 91 SW 6 5781 4451 2191 Blue 18
1 PM Wed 92 94 SW 6 6797 5723 3463 Blue 21
2 PM Wed 94 96 SW 8 7260 6545 4285 Blue 23
3 PM Wed 94 95 SW 8 7015 6175 3915 Blue 22
4 PM Wed 94 93 SW 8 6578 5262 3002 Blue 20
5 PM Wed 91 88 SW 10 4466 3898 1638 Blue 15
6 PM Wed 87 82 SW 10 3187 2375 115 Blue 9
7 PM Wed 83 78 SW 10 2256 2260 0 Blue 5
8 PM Wed 78 73 SW 6 1757 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 75 70 SW 6 1692 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 72 67 SW 6 1627 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 70 65 W 1 1583 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 68 63 W 1 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 67 62 W 1 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 66 61 W 1 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 65 60 W 1 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 65 60 W 1 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 65 60 N 1 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 67 62 N 1 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 69 64 N 1 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 72 68 W 1 1648 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 76 73 W 1 1757 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 81 80 W 1 2579 2260 0 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 86 87 W 5 4159 3610 1350 Blue 14
12 Noon Thu 90 92 W 5 6238 4717 2457 Blue 19
1 PM Thu 93 95 W 5 7015 6175 3915 Blue 22
2 PM Thu 95 97 SW 8 7542 6762 4502 Blue 24
3 PM Thu 95 95 SW 8 7015 6175 3915 Blue 22
4 PM Thu 96 95 SW 8 7015 6175 3915 Blue 22
5 PM Thu 94 91 SW 10 5781 4451 2191 Blue 18
6 PM Thu 90 85 SW 10 3906 3173 913 Blue 12
7 PM Thu 85 80 SW 10 2579 2260 0 Blue 7
8 PM Thu 80 75 SW 6 1953 2260 0 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 75 70 SW 6 1692 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 72 67 SW 6 1627 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 69 64 W 1 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 68 63 W 1 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 67 62 W 1 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 66 61 W 1 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 65 60 W 1 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 65 60 W 1 1581 2260 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst