Detailed Predictions for: Soboba
Launch Altitude (f): 2260
LZ Altitude (f): 1520
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Thu 50 45 E 6 764 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 51 46 E 6 764 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 50 45 E 6 764 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 50 45 E 6 764 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 54 49 E 6 764 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 62 57 E 5 764 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 67 63 E 1 850 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 70 67 NE 1 1668 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 73 70 W 0 2121 2260 0 Blue 1
1 PM Thu 75 72 SW 5 2469 2260 0 Blue 3
2 PM Thu 75 71 SW 5 2218 2260 0 Blue 2
3 PM Thu 75 70 SW 5 2121 2260 0 Blue 1
4 PM Thu 72 67 SW 8 1668 2260 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 65 60 SW 6 764 2260 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 60 55 S 5 764 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 57 52 SE 3 764 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 56 51 SE 3 764 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 54 49 SE 2 764 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 52 47 SE 2 764 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 50 45 SE 2 764 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 49 44 SE 2 764 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 48 43 S 1 764 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 47 42 SE 1 764 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 46 41 SE 1 764 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 44 39 SE 1 764 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 45 40 SE 1 764 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 44 39 SE 1 764 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 44 39 S 1 764 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 46 41 S 2 764 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 52 47 S 3 764 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 55 50 S 6 764 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 57 52 S 7 764 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 59 55 SW 6 764 2260 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 60 55 SW 9 764 2260 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 60 55 SW 10 764 2260 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 60 55 SW 10 764 2260 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 58 53 SW 12 764 2260 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 51 46 SW 12 764 2260 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 46 41 SW 9 764 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 44 39 SW 7 764 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 43 38 S 7 764 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 41 36 S 7 764 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 39 34 S 7 764 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 37 32 S 8 764 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 36 31 S 6 764 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 35 30 S 3 764 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 35 30 S 5 764 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 34 29 S 2 764 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 32 27 S 3 764 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 33 28 S 3 764 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 32 27 S 5 764 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 32 27 E 6 764 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 35 30 SE 3 764 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 42 37 S 2 764 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 46 42 W 5 764 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 48 45 W 6 764 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 51 48 W 6 764 2260 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 52 49 W 9 764 2260 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 52 48 W 9 764 2260 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 52 47 W 8 764 2260 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 51 46 W 10 764 2260 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 46 41 NW 10 764 2260 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 43 38 NW 10 764 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 41 36 NW 9 764 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 40 35 NW 9 764 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 39 34 NW 9 764 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 38 33 SE 6 764 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 36 31 SE 6 764 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 36 31 SE 6 764 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 35 30 E 5 764 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 35 30 E 5 764 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 34 29 E 5 764 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 33 28 E 5 764 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 34 29 E 5 764 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 33 28 E 5 764 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 33 28 E 3 764 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 37 32 E 3 764 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 46 42 E 3 764 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 51 47 S 2 764 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 54 51 S 2 764 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 57 54 S 2 764 2260 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 59 56 SW 3 764 2260 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 60 56 SW 3 764 2260 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 59 54 SW 3 764 2260 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 58 53 W 2 764 2260 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 52 47 W 2 764 2260 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 48 43 W 2 764 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 47 42 E 6 764 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 46 41 E 6 764 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 44 39 E 6 764 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 42 37 NE 5 764 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 41 36 NE 5 764 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 40 35 NE 5 764 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 40 35 E 5 764 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 39 34 E 5 764 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 39 34 E 5 764 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 37 32 E 5 764 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 38 33 E 5 764 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 37 32 E 5 764 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 37 32 E 6 764 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 41 36 E 6 764 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 50 45 E 6 764 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 55 51 S 5 764 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 58 55 S 5 764 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 61 58 S 5 764 2260 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 63 59 W 5 764 2260 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 64 60 W 5 764 2260 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 63 58 W 5 764 2260 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 62 57 NW 7 764 2260 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 56 51 NW 7 764 2260 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 52 47 NW 7 764 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 51 46 E 1 764 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 50 45 E 1 764 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 48 43 E 1 764 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 46 41 E 2 764 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 45 40 E 2 764 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 44 39 E 2 764 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 44 39 SE 2 764 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 43 38 SE 2 764 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 43 38 SE 2 764 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 41 36 E 3 764 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 42 37 E 3 764 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 41 36 E 3 764 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 41 36 E 3 764 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 45 40 E 3 764 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 54 50 E 3 764 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 59 55 N 0 764 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 62 59 N 0 764 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 66 63 N 0 850 2260 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 68 65 E 5 1260 2260 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 69 65 E 5 1260 2260 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 68 63 E 5 850 2260 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 66 61 NE 5 764 2260 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 61 56 NE 5 764 2260 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 56 51 NE 5 764 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 54 49 E 8 764 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 53 48 E 8 764 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 52 47 E 8 764 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 50 45 NE 9 764 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 48 43 NE 9 764 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 48 43 NE 9 764 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 47 42 E 9 764 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 46 41 E 9 764 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 46 41 E 9 764 2260 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst