Detailed Predictions for: Soboba
Launch Altitude (f): 2260
LZ Altitude (f): 1520
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

16 OCT 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 51 46 NE 18 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 51 46 NE 20 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 52 47 NE 21 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 54 49 NE 20 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 59 55 NE 21 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 64 61 NE 22 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 69 67 NE 23 2618 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 72 71 E 24 5944 3393 1133 Blue 4
1 PM Tue 75 74 NE 23 8158 5811 3551 Blue 7
2 PM Tue 77 76 NE 17 8662 7588 5328 Blue 9
3 PM Tue 76 74 E 18 8158 5811 3551 Blue 7
4 PM Tue 76 72 E 18 6890 4137 1877 Blue 5
5 PM Tue 74 69 E 17 4193 2260 0 Blue 2
6 PM Tue 70 65 E 15 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 65 60 E 14 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 61 56 E 12 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 59 54 NE 13 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 58 53 E 12 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 58 53 E 13 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 58 53 NE 13 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 57 52 NE 14 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 56 51 NE 13 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 55 50 E 13 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 54 49 E 12 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 53 48 E 13 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 53 48 E 15 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 55 50 E 14 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 58 53 NE 16 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 63 59 E 17 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 68 65 NE 17 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 73 71 E 17 5944 3393 1133 Blue 4
12 Noon Wed 76 75 NE 17 8411 6742 4482 Blue 8
1 PM Wed 78 77 NE 17 8912 8105 5845 Blue 10
2 PM Wed 77 75 E 16 8411 6742 4482 Blue 8
3 PM Wed 78 75 E 16 8411 6742 4482 Blue 8
4 PM Wed 77 73 E 16 7747 4839 2579 Blue 6
5 PM Wed 75 70 E 17 4909 2591 331 Blue 3
6 PM Wed 73 68 E 13 3434 2260 0 Blue 1
7 PM Wed 70 65 E 13 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 67 62 E 10 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 64 59 NE 9 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 62 57 E 8 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 60 55 NE 8 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 59 54 NE 9 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 59 54 NE 12 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 58 53 NE 9 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 57 52 NE 9 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 56 51 NE 9 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 55 50 NE 12 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 56 51 NE 13 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 57 52 NE 13 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 61 56 NE 22 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 65 61 NE 22 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 70 67 NE 22 2618 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 74 72 E 21 6890 4137 1877 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 77 76 E 21 8662 7588 5328 Blue 9
1 PM Thu 79 78 E 21 9161 8356 6096 Blue 11
2 PM Thu 80 79 E 20 9408 8605 6345 Blue 12
3 PM Thu 79 77 E 20 8912 8105 5845 Blue 10
4 PM Thu 80 76 E 20 8662 7588 5328 Blue 9
5 PM Thu 78 73 E 20 7747 4839 2579 Blue 6
6 PM Thu 74 69 E 18 4193 2260 0 Blue 2
7 PM Thu 70 65 NE 18 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 67 62 NE 18 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 65 60 NE 20 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 64 59 NE 21 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 63 58 NE 23 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 62 57 NE 23 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 62 57 NE 24 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 61 56 E 23 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 60 55 E 23 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 60 55 NE 22 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 60 55 NE 22 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 60 55 NE 22 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 61 56 NE 22 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 63 58 E 23 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 67 63 E 23 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 71 68 E 23 3434 2260 0 Blue 1
11 AM Fri 76 74 NE 25 8158 5811 3551 Blue 7
12 Noon Fri 79 78 NE 25 9161 8356 6096 Blue 11
1 PM Fri 81 80 NE 25 9655 8853 6593 Blue 13
2 PM Fri 82 81 E 23 9900 9100 6840 Blue 14
3 PM Fri 83 81 E 23 9900 9100 6840 Blue 14
4 PM Fri 82 78 E 23 9161 8356 6096 Blue 11
5 PM Fri 81 76 NE 20 8662 7588 5328 Blue 9
6 PM Fri 77 72 NE 20 6890 4137 1877 Blue 5
7 PM Fri 74 69 NE 20 4193 2260 0 Blue 2
8 PM Fri 70 65 NE 18 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 68 63 NE 18 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 66 61 NE 18 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 65 60 NE 17 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 64 59 NE 17 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 63 58 NE 17 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 63 58 NE 21 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 63 58 NE 21 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 62 57 NE 21 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 62 57 NE 17 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 60 55 NE 17 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 60 55 NE 17 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 61 56 NE 28 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 65 61 NE 28 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 70 67 NE 28 2618 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 75 73 NE 22 7747 4839 2579 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 79 77 NE 22 8912 8105 5845 Blue 10
1 PM Sat 81 79 NE 22 9408 8605 6345 Blue 12
2 PM Sat 82 80 NE 20 9655 8853 6593 Blue 13
3 PM Sat 83 80 NE 20 9655 8853 6593 Blue 13
4 PM Sat 83 79 NE 20 9408 8605 6345 Blue 12
5 PM Sat 81 76 E 18 8662 7588 5328 Blue 9
6 PM Sat 78 73 E 18 7747 4839 2579 Blue 6
7 PM Sat 75 70 E 18 4909 2591 331 Blue 3
8 PM Sat 73 68 NE 14 3434 2260 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sat 72 67 NE 14 2618 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 71 66 NE 14 1530 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 71 66 NE 16 1530 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 69 64 NE 16 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 68 63 NE 16 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 66 61 NE 21 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 65 60 NE 21 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 64 59 NE 21 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 63 58 NE 24 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 61 56 NE 24 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 60 55 NE 24 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 60 55 NE 23 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 63 58 NE 23 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 68 64 NE 23 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 72 69 E 20 4193 2260 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sun 76 73 E 20 7747 4839 2579 Blue 6
1 PM Sun 79 77 E 20 8912 8105 5845 Blue 10
2 PM Sun 80 77 NE 16 8912 8105 5845 Blue 10
3 PM Sun 79 75 NE 16 8411 6742 4482 Blue 8
4 PM Sun 77 73 NE 16 7747 4839 2579 Blue 6
5 PM Sun 74 69 NE 13 4193 2260 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sun 72 67 NE 13 2618 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 70 65 NE 13 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 68 63 NE 5 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 65 60 NE 5 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 62 57 NE 5 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 60 55 NE 9 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 60 55 NE 9 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 61 56 NE 9 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 62 57 E 10 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 62 57 E 10 1437 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 62 57 E 10 1437 2260 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst