Detailed Predictions for: Soboba
Launch Altitude (f): 2260
LZ Altitude (f): 1520
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 AUG 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 69 64 NW 0 1450 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 68 63 S 0 1450 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 70 65 SW 0 1450 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 76 72 W 2 2368 2260 0 Blue 5
9 AM Sat 80 77 W 2 2686 2465 205 Blue 10
10 AM Sat 84 83 W 3 3291 2981 721 Blue 16
11 AM Sat 88 87 W 6 3872 3355 1095 Blue 20
12 Noon Sat 91 91 W 6 5169 4084 1824 Blue 24
1 PM Sat 94 95 W 7 7415 5392 3132 Blue 28
2 PM Sat 95 95 W 9 7415 5392 3132 Blue 28
3 PM Sat 96 95 SW 10 7415 5392 3132 Blue 28
4 PM Sat 95 93 SW 10 5670 4818 2558 Blue 26
5 PM Sat 94 91 SW 12 5169 4084 1824 Blue 24
6 PM Sat 91 86 SW 10 3672 3287 1027 Blue 19
7 PM Sat 87 82 SW 10 3209 2870 610 Blue 15
8 PM Sat 82 77 SW 7 2686 2465 205 Blue 10
9 PM Sat 79 74 S 6 2466 2318 58 Blue 7
10 PM Sat 77 72 S 5 2368 2260 0 Blue 5
11 PM Sat 75 70 S 1 2250 2260 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sun 74 69 S 1 2171 2260 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sun 73 68 SW 1 2093 2260 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sun 72 67 SW 1 1964 2260 0 White 0
3 AM Sun 71 66 S 0 1707 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 70 65 SE 1 1450 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 69 64 E 1 1450 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 68 63 SE 1 1450 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 70 65 SE 1 1450 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 76 71 SW 2 2319 2260 0 Blue 4
9 AM Sun 81 78 SW 2 2773 2513 253 Blue 11
10 AM Sun 86 85 SW 3 3471 3204 944 Blue 18
11 AM Sun 90 90 W 5 4850 3859 1599 Blue 23
12 Noon Sun 93 94 W 6 6429 5143 2883 Blue 27
1 PM Sun 96 98 W 6 8595 7331 5071 Blue 31
2 PM Sun 98 99 W 8 8838 7739 5479 Blue 32
3 PM Sun 99 99 SW 10 8838 7739 5479 Blue 32
4 PM Sun 98 96 SW 12 7814 5639 3379 Blue 29
5 PM Sun 97 94 SW 12 6429 5143 2883 Blue 27
6 PM Sun 93 88 SW 10 4124 3461 1201 Blue 21
7 PM Sun 89 84 SW 10 3358 3093 833 Blue 17
8 PM Sun 84 79 S 7 2874 2580 320 Blue 12
9 PM Sun 81 76 S 5 2583 2416 156 Blue 9
10 PM Sun 78 73 S 3 2417 2260 0 Blue 6
11 PM Sun 77 72 SW 1 2368 2260 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Mon 75 70 SW 1 2250 2260 0 Blue 3
1 AM Mon 74 69 S 1 2171 2260 0 Blue 2
2 AM Mon 73 68 S 1 2093 2260 0 Blue 1
3 AM Mon 72 67 SW 1 1964 2260 0 White 0
4 AM Mon 71 66 W 1 1707 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 70 65 SW 0 1450 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 69 64 N 0 1450 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 71 66 W 0 1707 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 77 72 W 2 2368 2260 0 Blue 5
9 AM Mon 81 78 W 3 2773 2513 253 Blue 11
10 AM Mon 85 84 W 3 3358 3093 833 Blue 17
11 AM Mon 89 89 SW 6 4510 3660 1400 Blue 22
12 Noon Mon 92 93 SW 7 5670 4818 2558 Blue 26
1 PM Mon 94 95 SW 8 7415 5392 3132 Blue 28
2 PM Mon 96 97 SW 13 8207 6262 4002 Blue 30
3 PM Mon 97 97 SW 13 8207 6262 4002 Blue 30
4 PM Mon 96 94 SW 13 6429 5143 2883 Blue 27
5 PM Mon 95 91 SW 13 5169 4084 1824 Blue 24
6 PM Mon 92 87 SW 14 3872 3355 1095 Blue 20
7 PM Mon 88 83 SW 14 3291 2981 721 Blue 16
8 PM Mon 83 78 S 8 2773 2513 253 Blue 11
9 PM Mon 80 75 S 8 2515 2367 107 Blue 8
10 PM Mon 78 73 S 8 2417 2260 0 Blue 6
11 PM Mon 76 71 W 1 2319 2260 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Tue 75 70 W 1 2250 2260 0 Blue 3
1 AM Tue 74 69 W 1 2171 2260 0 Blue 2
2 AM Tue 73 68 NW 2 2093 2260 0 Blue 1
3 AM Tue 72 67 NW 2 1964 2260 0 White 0
4 AM Tue 71 66 NW 2 1707 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 70 65 N 2 1450 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 69 64 N 2 1450 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 71 66 N 2 1707 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 77 72 NW 5 2368 2260 0 Blue 5
9 AM Tue 82 79 NW 5 2874 2580 320 Blue 12
10 AM Tue 86 84 NW 5 3358 3093 833 Blue 17
11 AM Tue 90 89 W 8 4510 3660 1400 Blue 22
12 Noon Tue 94 94 W 8 6429 5143 2883 Blue 27
1 PM Tue 96 97 W 8 8207 6262 4002 Blue 30
2 PM Tue 98 98 W 12 8595 7331 5071 Blue 31
3 PM Tue 99 98 W 12 8595 7331 5071 Blue 31
4 PM Tue 99 97 W 12 8207 6262 4002 Blue 30
5 PM Tue 97 93 W 10 5670 4818 2558 Blue 26
6 PM Tue 94 89 W 10 4510 3660 1400 Blue 22
7 PM Tue 90 85 W 10 3471 3204 944 Blue 18
8 PM Tue 85 80 SW 6 2985 2683 423 Blue 13
9 PM Tue 82 77 SW 6 2686 2465 205 Blue 10
10 PM Tue 80 75 SW 6 2515 2367 107 Blue 8
11 PM Tue 78 73 W 2 2417 2260 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Wed 77 72 W 2 2368 2260 0 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 76 71 W 2 2319 2260 0 Blue 4
2 AM Wed 75 70 N 2 2250 2260 0 Blue 3
3 AM Wed 74 69 N 2 2171 2260 0 Blue 2
4 AM Wed 73 68 N 2 2093 2260 0 Blue 1
5 AM Wed 72 67 E 2 1964 2260 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 71 66 E 2 1707 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 73 68 E 2 2093 2260 0 Blue 1
8 AM Wed 79 74 W 1 2466 2318 58 Blue 7
9 AM Wed 84 81 W 1 3097 2770 510 Blue 14
10 AM Wed 88 86 W 1 3672 3287 1027 Blue 19
11 AM Wed 93 92 SW 6 5420 4480 2220 Blue 25
12 Noon Wed 96 96 SW 6 7814 5639 3379 Blue 29
1 PM Wed 99 99 SW 6 8838 7739 5479 Blue 32
2 PM Wed 101 101 S 9 9271 8512 6252 Blue 34
3 PM Wed 101 100 S 9 9055 8128 5868 Blue 33
4 PM Wed 102 100 S 9 9055 8128 5868 Blue 33
5 PM Wed 100 96 SW 10 7814 5639 3379 Blue 29
6 PM Wed 96 91 SW 10 5169 4084 1824 Blue 24
7 PM Wed 91 86 SW 10 3672 3287 1027 Blue 19
8 PM Wed 86 81 S 8 3097 2770 510 Blue 14
9 PM Wed 83 78 S 8 2773 2513 253 Blue 11
10 PM Wed 80 75 S 8 2515 2367 107 Blue 8
11 PM Wed 78 73 S 3 2417 2260 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Thu 77 72 S 3 2368 2260 0 Blue 5
1 AM Thu 76 71 S 3 2319 2260 0 Blue 4
2 AM Thu 74 69 SE 2 2171 2260 0 Blue 2
3 AM Thu 74 69 SE 2 2171 2260 0 Blue 2
4 AM Thu 72 67 SE 2 1964 2260 0 White 0
5 AM Thu 71 66 N 1 1707 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 71 66 N 1 1707 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 72 67 N 1 1964 2260 0 White 0
8 AM Thu 78 73 S 3 2417 2260 0 Blue 6
9 AM Thu 82 79 S 3 2874 2580 320 Blue 12
10 AM Thu 86 84 S 3 3358 3093 833 Blue 17
11 AM Thu 89 88 SW 8 4124 3461 1201 Blue 21
12 Noon Thu 92 92 SW 8 5420 4480 2220 Blue 25
1 PM Thu 95 96 SW 8 7814 5639 3379 Blue 29
2 PM Thu 96 96 SW 15 7814 5639 3379 Blue 29
3 PM Thu 97 96 SW 15 7814 5639 3379 Blue 29
4 PM Thu 97 95 SW 15 7415 5392 3132 Blue 28
5 PM Thu 95 91 SW 16 5169 4084 1824 Blue 24
6 PM Thu 92 87 SW 16 3872 3355 1095 Blue 20
7 PM Thu 88 83 SW 16 3291 2981 721 Blue 16
8 PM Thu 83 78 S 8 2773 2513 253 Blue 11
9 PM Thu 79 74 S 8 2466 2318 58 Blue 7
10 PM Thu 77 72 S 8 2368 2260 0 Blue 5
11 PM Thu 75 70 SW 2 2250 2260 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Fri 74 69 SW 2 2171 2260 0 Blue 2
1 AM Fri 73 68 SW 2 2093 2260 0 Blue 1
2 AM Fri 72 67 SW 1 1964 2260 0 White 0
3 AM Fri 71 66 SW 1 1707 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 70 65 SW 1 1450 2260 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst