Detailed Predictions for: Soboba
Launch Altitude (f): 2260
LZ Altitude (f): 1520
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

17 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 54 49 SE 2 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 54 49 SE 2 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 54 49 SE 2 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 55 50 SE 2 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 60 55 S 1 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 64 59 SW 2 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 67 63 W 6 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 69 65 W 7 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 71 67 W 8 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 72 68 W 12 1859 2260 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 71 67 W 12 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 72 67 W 12 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 70 65 W 10 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 65 60 W 8 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 62 57 W 5 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 59 54 NW 0 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 57 52 S 2 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 55 50 S 1 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 54 49 SE 0 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 53 48 NE 1 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 52 47 E 2 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 52 47 E 2 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 51 46 E 3 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 50 45 E 2 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 49 44 E 5 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 49 44 E 6 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 49 44 E 5 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 51 46 E 6 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 58 53 E 6 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 63 59 E 5 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 68 65 E 3 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 70 68 E 5 1859 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 72 70 E 5 2745 2260 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 74 71 NE 6 3293 2260 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sat 73 69 NE 7 2291 2260 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 74 69 NE 9 2291 2260 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 71 66 NE 13 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 65 60 E 13 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 62 57 E 12 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 58 53 E 8 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 56 51 NE 8 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 54 49 E 8 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 52 47 E 6 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 51 46 E 6 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 50 45 E 7 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 49 44 E 5 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 48 43 E 5 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 48 43 E 3 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 46 41 E 5 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 46 41 E 3 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 46 41 E 3 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 48 43 E 3 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 57 52 E 2 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 62 58 S 1 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 68 65 SW 3 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 72 69 W 3 2291 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 74 72 W 5 3825 2283 23 Blue 2
1 PM Sun 75 72 W 5 3825 2283 23 Blue 2
2 PM Sun 75 71 W 6 3293 2260 0 Blue 1
3 PM Sun 76 71 W 6 3293 2260 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sun 73 68 NW 7 1859 2260 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 67 62 NW 6 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 64 59 N 3 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 60 55 W 0 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 58 53 N 2 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 56 51 NE 2 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 54 49 NE 2 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 53 48 E 2 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 52 47 E 1 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 51 46 E 2 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 50 45 E 1 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 50 45 E 2 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 48 43 E 1 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 48 43 E 1 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 48 43 E 1 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 50 45 E 1 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 57 52 E 1 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 62 58 E 1 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 67 63 SW 3 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 70 67 SW 3 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 72 69 SW 3 2291 2260 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 74 71 W 5 3293 2260 0 Blue 1
2 PM Mon 74 70 W 5 2745 2260 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 74 69 W 5 2291 2260 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 72 67 NW 6 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 68 63 NW 6 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 65 60 NW 6 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 62 57 E 1 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 61 56 E 1 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 59 54 E 1 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 58 53 NE 2 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 57 52 NE 2 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 56 51 NE 2 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 56 51 E 3 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 55 50 E 3 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 54 49 E 3 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 53 48 E 3 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 53 48 E 3 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 53 48 E 3 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 55 50 E 7 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 63 58 E 7 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 68 64 E 7 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 74 70 S 1 2745 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 77 74 S 1 4955 3267 1007 Blue 4
12 Noon Tue 79 76 S 1 5874 4301 2041 Blue 6
1 PM Tue 80 77 N 2 6446 4883 2623 Blue 7
2 PM Tue 81 77 N 2 6446 4883 2623 Blue 7
3 PM Tue 80 75 N 2 5420 3791 1531 Blue 5
4 PM Tue 78 73 NE 9 4342 2728 468 Blue 3
5 PM Tue 73 68 NE 9 1859 2260 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 69 64 NE 9 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 66 61 NE 9 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 64 59 NE 9 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 61 56 NE 9 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 60 55 E 5 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 59 54 E 5 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 58 53 E 5 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 57 52 E 5 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 56 51 E 5 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 56 51 E 5 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 54 49 E 7 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 54 49 E 7 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 54 49 E 7 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 57 52 E 8 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 66 61 E 8 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 72 68 E 8 1859 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 78 75 E 5 5420 3791 1531 Blue 5
11 AM Wed 82 80 E 5 7425 6407 4147 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 85 83 E 5 8452 7355 5095 Blue 13
1 PM Wed 86 83 NE 9 8452 7355 5095 Blue 13
2 PM Wed 87 83 NE 9 8452 7355 5095 Blue 13
3 PM Wed 86 81 NE 9 7803 6665 4405 Blue 11
4 PM Wed 84 79 NE 13 7041 5824 3564 Blue 9
5 PM Wed 78 73 NE 13 4342 2728 468 Blue 3
6 PM Wed 74 69 NE 13 2291 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 70 65 NE 14 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 68 63 NE 14 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 65 60 NE 14 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 64 59 E 8 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 62 57 E 8 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 61 56 E 8 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 60 55 E 6 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 60 55 E 6 1555 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 59 54 E 6 1555 2260 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst