Detailed Predictions for: Soboba
Launch Altitude (f): 2260
LZ Altitude (f): 1520
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

14 DEC 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 47 42 NE 14 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 46 41 E 14 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 46 41 NE 14 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 47 42 NE 15 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 51 46 NE 14 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 56 51 NE 13 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 61 56 NE 12 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 64 59 NE 12 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 66 62 NE 10 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 66 61 NE 8 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 67 62 NE 8 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 66 61 NE 8 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 64 59 NE 8 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 62 57 NE 8 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 60 55 NE 8 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 58 53 NE 5 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 57 52 NE 3 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 56 51 E 3 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 54 49 E 5 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 53 48 E 2 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 52 47 E 3 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 50 45 E 3 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 49 44 SE 3 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 47 42 E 2 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 46 41 E 3 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 44 39 E 2 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 44 39 E 3 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 46 41 E 5 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 51 46 E 6 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 57 52 E 5 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 64 60 E 2 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 68 65 E 3 1438 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 71 68 NE 3 2388 2260 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 71 68 NE 5 2388 2260 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 72 68 NE 6 2388 2260 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 70 65 NE 8 1438 2260 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 67 62 NE 9 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 64 59 NE 8 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 60 55 E 8 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 57 52 E 7 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 54 49 E 7 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 52 47 E 7 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 51 46 E 8 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 50 45 E 8 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 49 44 E 7 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 49 44 E 7 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 48 43 E 8 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 48 43 E 9 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 47 42 E 9 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 46 41 E 8 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 45 40 E 8 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 47 42 E 7 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 51 46 SE 6 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 58 53 S 5 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 64 60 S 3 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 67 63 S 3 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 69 65 SW 5 1438 2260 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 70 66 SW 6 1757 2260 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 70 66 S 7 1757 2260 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 71 66 E 8 1757 2260 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 68 63 E 9 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 64 59 E 7 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 59 54 E 5 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 55 50 SE 2 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 53 48 SE 2 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 53 48 E 2 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 52 47 E 2 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 50 45 NE 2 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 48 43 N 2 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 47 42 N 2 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 48 43 NW 2 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 50 45 SW 3 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 50 45 S 3 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 49 44 S 3 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 47 42 S 3 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 46 41 N 3 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 48 43 N 3 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 51 46 N 3 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 55 52 SW 5 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 58 55 SW 5 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 60 58 SW 5 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 61 58 W 9 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 62 58 W 9 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 62 57 W 9 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 60 55 NW 10 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 57 52 NW 10 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 54 49 NW 10 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 52 47 NW 2 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 51 46 NW 2 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 51 46 NW 2 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 52 47 S 3 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 52 47 S 3 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 51 46 S 3 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 50 45 NE 2 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 49 44 NE 2 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 48 43 NE 2 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 46 41 NW 3 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 45 40 NW 3 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 45 40 NW 3 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 46 41 NE 3 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 49 44 NE 3 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 54 49 NE 3 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 58 54 W 6 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 60 57 W 6 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 62 59 W 6 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 64 61 W 7 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 65 61 W 7 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 65 60 W 7 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 63 58 SW 5 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 59 54 SW 5 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 54 49 SW 5 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 50 45 SE 7 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 48 43 SE 7 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 48 43 SE 7 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 48 43 E 7 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 47 42 E 7 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 46 41 E 7 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 45 40 E 5 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 46 41 E 5 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 46 41 E 5 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 47 42 E 8 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 46 41 E 8 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 45 40 E 8 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 47 42 E 9 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 52 47 E 9 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 58 54 E 9 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 64 60 E 6 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 68 65 E 6 1438 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 69 66 E 6 1757 2260 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 70 67 SE 5 2074 2260 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 72 68 SE 5 2388 2260 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 72 67 SE 5 2074 2260 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 70 65 E 8 1438 2260 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 65 60 E 8 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 59 54 E 8 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 53 48 E 8 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 50 45 E 8 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 49 44 E 8 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 49 44 E 8 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 48 43 E 8 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 47 42 E 8 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 47 42 E 8 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 48 43 E 8 1050 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 49 44 E 8 1050 2260 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst