Detailed Predictions for: Soboba
Launch Altitude (f): 2260
LZ Altitude (f): 1520
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

15 JUN 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 57 52 W 1 440 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 56 51 W 2 440 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 60 55 W 2 1891 2260 0 White 0
8 AM Sat 64 59 W 3 2817 2417 157 White 4
9 AM Sat 68 63 W 3 3448 3384 1124 Blue 8
10 AM Sat 72 68 SW 5 3570 3489 1229 Blue 13
11 AM Sat 76 77 SW 6 3965 3801 1541 Blue 22
12 Noon Sat 79 81 SW 6 4226 4019 1759 Blue 26
1 PM Sat 82 84 SW 7 4428 4220 1960 Blue 29
2 PM Sat 84 86 SW 8 4626 4355 2095 Blue 31
3 PM Sat 84 84 SW 9 4428 4220 1960 Blue 29
4 PM Sat 85 84 SW 10 4428 4220 1960 Blue 29
5 PM Sat 84 81 SW 13 4226 4019 1759 Blue 26
6 PM Sat 81 77 SW 12 3965 3801 1541 Blue 22
7 PM Sat 77 72 SW 12 3713 3604 1344 Blue 17
8 PM Sat 74 69 S 7 3606 3510 1250 Blue 14
9 PM Sat 70 65 S 6 3490 3426 1166 Blue 10
10 PM Sat 66 61 S 5 3256 3256 996 White 6
11 PM Sat 64 59 SW 1 2817 2417 157 White 4
12 Midnight Sun 62 57 SW 1 2362 2260 0 White 2
1 AM Sun 61 56 SW 1 2122 2260 0 White 1
2 AM Sun 60 55 S 1 1891 2260 0 White 0
3 AM Sun 59 54 W 0 440 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 58 53 W 0 440 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 58 53 NW 0 440 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 57 52 NW 0 440 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 60 55 W 1 1891 2260 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 65 61 W 2 3256 3256 996 White 6
9 AM Sun 68 64 W 3 3469 3405 1145 Blue 9
10 AM Sun 72 69 W 3 3606 3510 1250 Blue 14
11 AM Sun 76 76 W 6 3911 3747 1487 Blue 21
12 Noon Sun 79 80 W 7 4158 3961 1701 Blue 25
1 PM Sun 82 84 W 8 4428 4220 1960 Blue 29
2 PM Sun 84 85 SW 10 4495 4287 2027 Blue 30
3 PM Sun 84 84 SW 13 4428 4220 1960 Blue 29
4 PM Sun 85 83 SW 13 4360 4153 1893 Blue 28
5 PM Sun 84 81 SW 13 4226 4019 1759 Blue 26
6 PM Sun 81 76 SW 13 3911 3747 1487 Blue 21
7 PM Sun 76 71 SW 12 3677 3568 1308 Blue 16
8 PM Sun 73 68 SW 9 3570 3489 1229 Blue 13
9 PM Sun 68 63 S 7 3448 3384 1124 Blue 8
10 PM Sun 65 60 SW 6 3037 2859 599 White 5
11 PM Sun 62 57 S 3 2362 2260 0 White 2
12 Midnight Mon 61 56 S 2 2122 2260 0 White 1
1 AM Mon 60 55 SW 2 1891 2260 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 58 53 SW 1 440 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 57 52 SW 1 440 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 56 51 W 1 440 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 56 51 W 1 440 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 55 50 W 1 440 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 58 53 W 1 440 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 63 58 SW 2 2597 2260 0 White 3
9 AM Mon 66 61 W 5 3256 3256 996 White 6
10 AM Mon 70 66 W 5 3512 3447 1187 Blue 11
11 AM Mon 74 75 W 6 3858 3710 1450 Blue 20
12 Noon Mon 77 79 SW 7 4091 3907 1647 Blue 24
1 PM Mon 80 83 SW 8 4360 4153 1893 Blue 28
2 PM Mon 82 84 SW 12 4428 4220 1960 Blue 29
3 PM Mon 82 83 SW 13 4360 4153 1893 Blue 28
4 PM Mon 83 82 SW 14 4293 4086 1826 Blue 27
5 PM Mon 82 79 SW 14 4091 3907 1647 Blue 24
6 PM Mon 79 75 SW 13 3858 3710 1450 Blue 20
7 PM Mon 75 70 SW 12 3641 3533 1273 Blue 15
8 PM Mon 72 67 SW 8 3535 3468 1208 Blue 12
9 PM Mon 68 63 SW 6 3448 3384 1124 Blue 8
10 PM Mon 65 60 SW 5 3037 2859 599 White 5
11 PM Mon 63 58 SW 2 2597 2260 0 White 3
12 Midnight Tue 61 56 SW 2 2122 2260 0 White 1
1 AM Tue 60 55 SW 2 1891 2260 0 White 0
2 AM Tue 59 54 W 1 440 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 58 53 NW 2 440 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 57 52 NW 2 440 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 57 52 NW 2 440 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 56 51 NW 2 440 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 60 55 NW 2 1891 2260 0 White 0
8 AM Tue 64 60 NW 2 3037 2859 599 White 5
9 AM Tue 68 66 NW 2 3512 3447 1187 Blue 11
10 AM Tue 72 72 NW 2 3713 3604 1344 Blue 17
11 AM Tue 77 79 W 6 4091 3907 1647 Blue 24
12 Noon Tue 80 83 W 6 4360 4153 1893 Blue 28
1 PM Tue 83 86 W 6 4626 4355 2095 Blue 31
2 PM Tue 85 87 SW 9 4783 4422 2162 Blue 32
3 PM Tue 86 87 SW 9 4783 4422 2162 Blue 32
4 PM Tue 86 85 SW 9 4495 4287 2027 Blue 30
5 PM Tue 85 82 SW 10 4293 4086 1826 Blue 27
6 PM Tue 82 78 SW 10 4024 3854 1594 Blue 23
7 PM Tue 78 73 SW 10 3751 3639 1379 Blue 18
8 PM Tue 75 70 SW 7 3641 3533 1273 Blue 15
9 PM Tue 71 66 SW 7 3512 3447 1187 Blue 11
10 PM Tue 68 63 SW 7 3448 3384 1124 Blue 8
11 PM Tue 66 61 W 2 3256 3256 996 White 6
12 Midnight Wed 64 59 W 2 2817 2417 157 White 4
1 AM Wed 63 58 W 2 2597 2260 0 White 3
2 AM Wed 62 57 NW 2 2362 2260 0 White 2
3 AM Wed 61 56 NW 2 2122 2260 0 White 1
4 AM Wed 60 55 NW 2 1891 2260 0 White 0
5 AM Wed 60 55 NW 2 1891 2260 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 59 54 NW 2 440 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 63 58 NW 2 2597 2260 0 White 3
8 AM Wed 67 63 W 3 3448 3384 1124 Blue 8
9 AM Wed 71 69 W 3 3606 3510 1250 Blue 14
10 AM Wed 75 75 W 3 3858 3710 1450 Blue 20
11 AM Wed 79 81 W 6 4226 4019 1759 Blue 26
12 Noon Wed 82 85 W 6 4495 4287 2027 Blue 30
1 PM Wed 85 88 W 6 4958 4489 2229 Blue 33
2 PM Wed 87 89 W 9 5174 4612 2352 Blue 34
3 PM Wed 88 89 W 9 5174 4612 2352 Blue 34
4 PM Wed 88 87 W 9 4783 4422 2162 Blue 32
5 PM Wed 87 84 SW 10 4428 4220 1960 Blue 29
6 PM Wed 84 80 SW 10 4158 3961 1701 Blue 25
7 PM Wed 80 75 SW 10 3858 3710 1450 Blue 20
8 PM Wed 77 72 SW 8 3713 3604 1344 Blue 17
9 PM Wed 72 67 SW 8 3535 3468 1208 Blue 12
10 PM Wed 69 64 SW 8 3469 3405 1145 Blue 9
11 PM Wed 67 62 SW 3 3427 3353 1093 Blue 7
12 Midnight Thu 66 61 SW 3 3256 3256 996 White 6
1 AM Thu 64 59 SW 3 2817 2417 157 White 4
2 AM Thu 63 58 W 2 2597 2260 0 White 3
3 AM Thu 62 57 W 2 2362 2260 0 White 2
4 AM Thu 61 56 W 2 2122 2260 0 White 1
5 AM Thu 61 56 W 1 2122 2260 0 White 1
6 AM Thu 60 55 W 1 1891 2260 0 White 0
7 AM Thu 63 58 W 1 2597 2260 0 White 3
8 AM Thu 67 63 SW 3 3448 3384 1124 Blue 8
9 AM Thu 70 68 SW 3 3570 3489 1229 Blue 13
10 AM Thu 74 74 SW 3 3804 3675 1415 Blue 19
11 AM Thu 77 79 SW 8 4091 3907 1647 Blue 24
12 Noon Thu 80 83 SW 8 4360 4153 1893 Blue 28
1 PM Thu 82 85 SW 8 4495 4287 2027 Blue 30
2 PM Thu 84 87 SW 10 4783 4422 2162 Blue 32
3 PM Thu 85 86 SW 10 4626 4355 2095 Blue 31
4 PM Thu 85 84 SW 10 4428 4220 1960 Blue 29
5 PM Thu 84 81 SW 12 4226 4019 1759 Blue 26
6 PM Thu 81 77 SW 12 3965 3801 1541 Blue 22
7 PM Thu 77 72 SW 12 3713 3604 1344 Blue 17
8 PM Thu 74 69 SW 8 3606 3510 1250 Blue 14
9 PM Thu 70 65 SW 8 3490 3426 1166 Blue 10
10 PM Thu 67 62 SW 8 3427 3353 1093 Blue 7
11 PM Thu 65 60 SW 5 3037 2859 599 White 5
12 Midnight Fri 63 58 SW 5 2597 2260 0 White 3
1 AM Fri 62 57 SW 5 2362 2260 0 White 2
2 AM Fri 61 56 SW 3 2122 2260 0 White 1
3 AM Fri 60 55 SW 3 1891 2260 0 White 0
4 AM Fri 59 54 SW 3 440 2260 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst