Detailed Predictions for: Soboba
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.8223, -116.9588, 2260
LZ Altitude (f): 1520
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 25 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Thu 49 44 WSW 8 13 486 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 49 44 SW 8 13 486 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 49 44 SW 8 14 486 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 48 43 WSW 8 13 486 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 48 43 WSW 6 12 486 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 48 43 WSW 8 14 486 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 48 43 SW 9 16 486 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 48 43 SW 9 16 486 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 48 43 SW 9 16 486 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 48 43 SSW 9 16 486 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 48 43 SW 9 16 486 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 50 47 SSW 9 16 486 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 52 49 SSW 8 13 808 2260 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 53 50 SSW 9 17 2131 2260 0 White 0
2 PM Thu 55 53 WSW 11 18 2802 2260 0 White 3
3 PM Thu 56 53 SW 11 19 2802 2260 0 White 3
4 PM Thu 57 53 SW 11 18 2802 2260 0 White 3
5 PM Thu 57 52 SW 11 19 2581 2260 0 White 2
6 PM Thu 57 52 SW 10 18 2581 2260 0 White 2
7 PM Thu 56 51 WSW 10 17 2356 2260 0 White 1
8 PM Thu 54 49 W 9 17 808 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 51 46 WSW 9 16 486 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 50 45 SW 9 14 486 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 49 44 SW 8 14 486 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 48 43 SW 8 14 486 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 48 43 SSW 8 14 486 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 48 43 S 8 14 486 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 43 S 8 14 486 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 48 43 S 8 14 486 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 48 43 S 9 16 486 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 48 43 S 9 16 486 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 48 43 S 9 16 486 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 48 43 SSW 10 17 486 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 48 43 SSW 10 17 486 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 48 43 SW 10 17 486 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 49 46 SW 10 18 486 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 51 48 SW 11 18 486 2260 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 53 50 WSW 11 20 2131 2260 0 White 0
2 PM Fri 55 54 WSW 12 21 3021 2903 643 White 4
3 PM Fri 56 54 WSW 13 23 3021 2903 643 White 4
4 PM Fri 57 54 SW 14 24 3021 2903 643 White 4
5 PM Fri 57 52 SW 16 25 2581 2260 0 White 2
6 PM Fri 57 52 SSW 17 26 2581 2260 0 White 2
7 PM Fri 55 50 S 17 27 2131 2260 0 White 0
8 PM Fri 54 49 S 17 27 808 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 52 47 S 16 25 486 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 51 46 S 13 23 486 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 50 45 S 12 20 486 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 49 44 S 11 18 486 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 48 43 SSE 10 17 486 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 48 43 SSE 9 16 486 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 48 43 SSE 9 16 486 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 48 43 SSE 8 14 486 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 48 43 SSE 8 13 486 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 48 43 SSE 6 12 486 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 48 43 S 6 12 486 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 49 44 S 6 12 486 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 51 47 SSW 6 12 486 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 53 50 SSW 6 13 2131 2260 0 White 0
11 AM Sat 56 57 SW 8 14 3676 3676 1416 White 7
12 Noon Sat 59 61 SW 9 16 4545 4545 2285 White 11
1 PM Sat 63 65 SW 9 17 5402 5402 3142 White 15
2 PM Sat 65 66 SW 11 18 5615 5615 3355 White 16
3 PM Sat 67 67 SW 12 21 5827 5827 3567 White 17
4 PM Sat 67 65 SW 14 24 5402 5402 3142 White 15
5 PM Sat 67 63 SW 16 26 4976 4976 2716 White 13
6 PM Sat 65 60 SSW 14 24 4328 4328 2068 White 10
7 PM Sat 62 57 SSW 12 21 3676 3676 1416 White 7
8 PM Sat 58 53 SSW 10 17 2802 2260 0 White 3
9 PM Sat 56 51 S 8 14 2356 2260 0 White 1
10 PM Sat 54 49 S 5 12 808 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 52 47 SSE 4 10 486 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 51 46 SSE 4 9 486 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 50 45 SE 4 9 486 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 49 44 SE 4 9 486 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 48 43 SE 3 9 486 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 48 43 ESE 3 8 486 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 48 43 E 3 8 486 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 49 44 E 3 8 486 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 51 46 E 3 8 486 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 53 49 SW 4 9 808 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 56 54 SW 4 9 3021 2903 643 White 4
10 AM Sun 60 60 SW 4 9 4328 4328 2068 White 10
11 AM Sun 63 64 W 6 12 5189 5189 2929 White 14
12 Noon Sun 66 68 W 6 12 6039 6039 3779 White 18
1 PM Sun 69 72 W 6 12 6886 6886 4626 White 22
2 PM Sun 71 73 W 9 16 7097 7097 4837 White 23
3 PM Sun 73 73 W 9 16 7097 7097 4837 White 23
4 PM Sun 74 72 W 9 16 6886 6886 4626 White 22
5 PM Sun 73 70 SW 11 18 6464 6464 4204 White 20
6 PM Sun 72 67 SW 11 18 5827 5827 3567 White 17
7 PM Sun 69 64 SW 11 18 5189 5189 2929 White 14
8 PM Sun 66 61 SSW 8 14 4545 4545 2285 White 11
9 PM Sun 62 57 SSW 8 14 3676 3676 1416 White 7
10 PM Sun 60 55 SSW 8 14 3239 3239 979 White 5
11 PM Sun 57 52 SSE 4 9 2581 2260 0 White 2
12 Midnight Mon 56 51 SSE 4 9 2356 2260 0 White 1
1 AM Mon 54 49 SSE 4 9 808 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 54 49 SE 4 9 808 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 53 48 SE 4 9 486 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 52 47 SE 4 9 486 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 52 47 N 3 9 486 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 53 48 N 3 9 486 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 55 50 N 3 9 2131 2260 0 White 0
8 AM Mon 57 53 W 4 9 2802 2260 0 White 3
9 AM Mon 60 58 W 4 9 3893 3893 1633 White 8
10 AM Mon 64 64 W 4 9 5189 5189 2929 White 14
11 AM Mon 68 69 W 6 12 6251 6251 3991 White 19
12 Noon Mon 71 73 W 6 12 7097 7097 4837 White 23
1 PM Mon 74 77 W 6 12 7934 7934 5674 White 27
2 PM Mon 75 77 WSW 10 17 7934 7934 5674 White 27
3 PM Mon 77 77 WSW 10 17 7934 7934 5674 White 27
4 PM Mon 77 75 WSW 10 17 7516 7516 5256 White 25
5 PM Mon 76 72 SW 12 20 6886 6886 4626 White 22
6 PM Mon 73 68 SW 12 20 6039 6039 3779 White 18
7 PM Mon 70 65 SW 12 20 5402 5402 3142 White 15
8 PM Mon 66 61 S 9 16 4545 4545 2285 White 11
9 PM Mon 63 58 S 9 16 3893 3893 1633 White 8
10 PM Mon 61 56 S 9 16 3457 3457 1197 White 6
11 PM Mon 59 54 S 4 10 3021 2903 643 White 4
12 Midnight Tue 58 53 S 4 10 2802 2260 0 White 3
1 AM Tue 57 52 S 4 10 2581 2260 0 White 2
2 AM Tue 56 51 SW 3 8 2356 2260 0 White 1
3 AM Tue 55 50 SW 3 8 2131 2260 0 White 0
4 AM Tue 54 49 SW 3 8 808 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 54 49 N 3 8 808 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 55 50 N 3 8 2131 2260 0 White 0
7 AM Tue 57 52 N 3 8 2581 2260 0 White 2
8 AM Tue 60 56 W 4 9 3457 3457 1197 White 6
9 AM Tue 64 62 W 4 9 4761 4761 2501 White 12
10 AM Tue 69 68 W 4 9 6039 6039 3779 White 18
11 AM Tue 73 74 W 6 12 7307 7307 5047 White 24
12 Noon Tue 76 78 W 6 12 8142 8142 5882 White 28
1 PM Tue 79 81 W 6 12 8760 8760 6500 White 31
2 PM Tue 80 81 WSW 11 19 8760 8760 6500 White 31
3 PM Tue 81 81 WSW 11 19 8760 8760 6500 White 31
4 PM Tue 80 78 WSW 11 19 8142 8142 5882 White 28
5 PM Tue 78 74 SSW 12 21 7307 7307 5047 White 24
6 PM Tue 76 71 SSW 12 21 6675 6675 4415 White 21
7 PM Tue 72 67 SSW 12 21 5827 5827 3567 White 17
8 PM Tue 68 63 S 9 17 4976 4976 2716 White 13
9 PM Tue 65 60 S 9 17 4328 4328 2068 White 10
10 PM Tue 62 57 S 9 17 3676 3676 1416 White 7

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst