Detailed Predictions for: Soboba
Launch Altitude (f): 2260
LZ Altitude (f): 1520
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

25 NOV 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 46 41 E 2 568 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 46 41 E 2 568 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 46 41 E 2 568 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 47 42 E 3 568 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 50 45 SE 3 568 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 54 50 S 3 568 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 58 55 SW 3 568 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 61 58 SW 5 2648 2260 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Wed 63 61 SW 6 3288 2638 378 Blue 5
1 PM Wed 64 61 W 7 3288 2638 378 Blue 5
2 PM Wed 63 59 W 7 2984 2260 0 Blue 3
3 PM Wed 63 58 W 7 2648 2260 0 Blue 2
4 PM Wed 61 56 W 8 1915 2260 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 57 52 SW 6 568 2260 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 53 48 S 5 568 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 49 44 S 3 568 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 47 42 S 2 568 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 47 42 S 2 568 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 46 41 S 2 568 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 45 40 S 1 568 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 44 39 S 1 568 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 43 38 SW 1 568 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 43 38 S 1 568 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 42 37 SE 2 568 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 42 37 SE 3 568 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 41 36 SE 3 568 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 41 36 SE 3 568 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 42 37 SE 3 568 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 44 39 S 3 568 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 48 44 S 3 568 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 52 49 SW 3 568 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 56 53 SW 3 568 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 59 57 W 2 2290 2260 0 Blue 1
1 PM Thu 61 58 NW 1 2648 2260 0 Blue 2
2 PM Thu 61 57 NW 2 2290 2260 0 Blue 1
3 PM Thu 61 56 NE 5 1915 2260 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 58 53 NE 8 568 2260 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 53 48 NE 9 568 2260 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 48 43 E 12 568 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 44 39 E 15 568 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 44 39 E 20 568 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 44 39 E 24 568 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 45 40 E 28 568 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 45 40 E 26 568 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 44 39 E 24 568 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 44 39 E 21 568 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 44 39 E 20 568 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 45 40 E 20 568 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 45 40 E 20 568 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 43 38 E 17 568 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 41 36 E 15 568 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 41 36 E 14 568 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 45 40 E 15 568 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 50 46 E 16 568 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 55 52 E 17 568 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 58 56 E 14 1915 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 60 58 E 9 2648 2260 0 Blue 2
1 PM Fri 60 57 E 6 2290 2260 0 Blue 1
2 PM Fri 61 57 E 5 2290 2260 0 Blue 1
3 PM Fri 60 55 SE 6 568 2260 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 60 55 SE 6 568 2260 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 59 54 SE 5 568 2260 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 56 51 E 3 568 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 52 47 E 3 568 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 47 42 E 2 568 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 43 38 E 3 568 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 41 36 E 5 568 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 41 36 E 7 568 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 43 38 E 10 568 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 44 39 E 14 568 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 44 39 E 16 568 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 44 39 E 18 568 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 43 38 E 18 568 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 42 37 E 18 568 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 43 38 E 18 568 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 46 41 E 12 568 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 49 44 E 12 568 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 53 49 E 12 568 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 57 54 NE 12 568 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 60 57 NE 12 2290 2260 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sat 62 60 NE 12 3256 2284 24 Blue 4
1 PM Sat 64 61 NE 12 3288 2638 378 Blue 5
2 PM Sat 63 59 NE 12 2984 2260 0 Blue 3
3 PM Sat 63 58 NE 12 2648 2260 0 Blue 2
4 PM Sat 62 57 N 16 2290 2260 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sat 59 54 N 16 568 2260 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 57 52 N 16 568 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 54 49 NE 12 568 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 50 45 NE 12 568 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 48 43 NE 12 568 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 45 40 E 8 568 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 43 38 E 8 568 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 42 37 E 8 568 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 42 37 E 8 568 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 42 37 E 8 568 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 43 38 E 8 568 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 43 38 E 12 568 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 44 39 E 12 568 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 46 41 E 12 568 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 48 43 E 9 568 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 52 47 E 9 568 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 56 52 E 9 568 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 60 57 E 6 2290 2260 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 63 60 E 6 3256 2284 24 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 65 62 E 6 3306 2971 711 Blue 6
1 PM Sun 66 63 NE 6 3324 3247 987 Blue 7
2 PM Sun 66 62 NE 6 3306 2971 711 Blue 6
3 PM Sun 66 61 NE 6 3288 2638 378 Blue 5
4 PM Sun 64 59 NE 8 2984 2260 0 Blue 3
5 PM Sun 61 56 NE 8 1915 2260 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 56 51 NE 8 568 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 52 47 E 6 568 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 50 45 E 6 568 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 49 44 E 6 568 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 49 44 E 3 568 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 48 43 E 3 568 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 47 42 E 3 568 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 46 41 E 7 568 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 45 40 E 7 568 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 45 40 E 7 568 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 45 40 E 8 568 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 47 42 E 8 568 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 49 44 E 8 568 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 51 46 E 6 568 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 54 49 E 6 568 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 57 52 E 6 568 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 60 56 E 6 1915 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 63 59 E 6 2984 2260 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Mon 65 61 E 6 3288 2638 378 Blue 5
1 PM Mon 67 63 NE 5 3324 3247 987 Blue 7
2 PM Mon 67 63 NE 5 3324 3247 987 Blue 7
3 PM Mon 68 63 NE 5 3324 3247 987 Blue 7
4 PM Mon 66 61 E 5 3288 2638 378 Blue 5
5 PM Mon 62 57 E 5 2290 2260 0 Blue 1
6 PM Mon 57 52 E 5 568 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 53 48 S 3 568 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 51 46 S 3 568 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 51 46 S 3 568 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 50 45 SE 3 568 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 50 45 SE 3 568 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 48 43 SE 3 568 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 47 42 W 2 568 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 46 41 W 2 568 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 45 40 W 2 568 2260 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst