Detailed Predictions for: Soboba
Launch Altitude (f): 2260
LZ Altitude (f): 1520
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

16 FEB 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sat 39 34 S 5 728 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 38 33 S 6 728 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 38 33 SE 5 728 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 38 33 SE 5 728 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 41 36 S 3 728 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 45 41 SW 3 728 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 47 43 SW 6 728 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 49 45 SW 7 728 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 50 47 SW 7 1830 2260 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 51 47 W 12 1830 2260 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 51 47 W 13 1830 2260 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 50 45 W 13 728 2260 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 50 45 W 15 728 2260 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 48 43 W 16 728 2260 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 45 40 SW 13 728 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 44 39 SW 12 728 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 42 37 S 9 728 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 41 36 S 9 728 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 41 36 S 9 728 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 40 35 S 8 728 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 39 34 S 9 728 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 39 34 S 9 728 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 38 33 S 8 728 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 37 32 SE 9 728 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 37 32 SE 7 728 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 36 31 SE 8 728 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 36 31 SE 8 728 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 36 31 SE 8 728 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 39 34 SE 8 728 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 42 37 S 8 728 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 44 39 S 9 728 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 45 40 SW 13 728 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 46 41 W 9 728 2260 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 47 42 NW 10 728 2260 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 47 42 W 10 728 2260 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 46 41 W 21 728 2260 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 46 41 W 18 728 2260 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 44 39 W 13 728 2260 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 42 37 W 13 728 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 41 36 SW 8 728 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 39 34 S 5 728 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 38 33 S 3 728 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 38 33 SE 3 728 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 37 32 SW 3 728 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 37 32 S 3 728 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 36 31 S 5 728 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 36 31 SE 7 728 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 35 30 SE 7 728 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 35 30 SE 9 728 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 34 29 SE 9 728 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 34 29 SE 9 728 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 34 29 SE 6 728 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 38 33 SE 6 728 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 42 38 SE 6 728 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 44 41 SW 3 728 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 46 44 SW 3 728 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 48 46 SW 3 911 2260 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 49 47 W 9 1830 2260 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 48 45 W 9 728 2260 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 48 44 W 9 728 2260 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 48 43 NW 8 728 2260 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 45 40 NW 8 728 2260 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 42 37 NW 8 728 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 41 36 NE 7 728 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 40 35 NE 7 728 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 38 33 NE 7 728 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 38 33 E 8 728 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 37 32 E 8 728 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 36 31 E 8 728 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 36 31 SE 7 728 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 35 30 SE 7 728 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 34 29 SE 7 728 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 34 29 SE 5 728 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 33 28 SE 5 728 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 33 28 SE 5 728 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 33 28 SE 8 728 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 38 33 SE 8 728 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 43 39 SE 8 728 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 46 44 SW 3 728 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 48 47 SW 3 1830 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 50 49 SW 3 3423 2260 0 White 2
1 PM Tue 51 50 W 8 3640 2662 402 White 3
2 PM Tue 50 48 W 8 3061 2260 0 Blue 1
3 PM Tue 50 46 W 8 911 2260 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 50 45 W 10 728 2260 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 47 42 W 10 728 2260 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 44 39 W 10 728 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 43 38 E 3 728 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 42 37 E 3 728 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 40 35 E 3 728 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 40 35 E 10 728 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 39 34 E 10 728 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 38 33 E 10 728 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 38 33 E 2 728 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 37 32 E 2 728 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 36 31 E 2 728 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 36 31 NE 3 728 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 35 30 NE 3 728 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 35 30 NE 3 728 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 35 30 SE 5 728 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 39 34 SE 5 728 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 44 40 SE 5 728 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 46 43 SW 5 728 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 48 46 SW 5 911 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 50 48 SW 5 3061 2260 0 Blue 1
1 PM Wed 51 49 W 7 3423 2260 0 White 2
2 PM Wed 51 48 W 7 3061 2260 0 Blue 1
3 PM Wed 50 46 W 7 911 2260 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 50 45 W 9 728 2260 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 48 43 W 9 728 2260 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 46 41 W 9 728 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 45 40 NW 6 728 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 43 38 NW 6 728 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 42 37 NW 6 728 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 42 37 E 5 728 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 41 36 E 5 728 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 41 36 E 5 728 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 40 35 E 5 728 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 40 35 E 5 728 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 39 34 E 5 728 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 39 34 E 5 728 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 38 33 E 5 728 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 38 33 E 5 728 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 38 33 NE 3 728 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 40 35 NE 3 728 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 43 38 NE 3 728 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 45 41 S 3 728 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 46 42 S 3 728 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 47 43 S 3 728 2260 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 48 44 W 2 728 2260 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 48 43 W 2 728 2260 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 47 42 W 2 728 2260 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 47 42 E 8 728 2260 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 45 40 E 8 728 2260 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 43 38 E 8 728 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 42 37 E 17 728 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 41 36 E 17 728 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 40 35 E 17 728 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 40 35 E 17 728 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 39 34 E 17 728 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 38 33 E 17 728 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 38 33 E 17 728 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 38 33 E 17 728 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 37 32 E 17 728 2260 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst