Detailed Predictions for: Soboba
Launch Altitude (f): 2260
LZ Altitude (f): 1520
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

23 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 52 47 SE 3 1388 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 51 46 SE 3 1388 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 51 46 SE 3 1388 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 55 50 S 3 1388 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 59 55 S 3 1388 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 63 59 S 3 1388 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 67 66 SW 7 4804 3280 1020 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 70 70 SW 7 5577 4909 2649 Blue 10
1 PM Sat 72 72 SW 6 6113 5237 2977 White 12
2 PM Sat 75 75 W 6 6753 6286 4026 White 15
3 PM Sat 75 73 W 7 6326 5529 3269 White 13
4 PM Sat 75 72 W 9 6113 5237 2977 White 12
5 PM Sat 75 70 W 12 5577 4909 2649 Blue 10
6 PM Sat 71 66 W 12 4804 3280 1020 Blue 6
7 PM Sat 66 61 W 8 2784 2260 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sat 63 58 S 5 1388 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 60 55 S 5 1388 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 58 53 S 5 1388 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 58 53 E 3 1388 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 56 51 E 3 1388 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 56 51 E 3 1388 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 55 50 E 2 1388 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 55 50 E 3 1388 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 54 49 E 3 1388 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 54 49 E 6 1388 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 53 48 E 6 1388 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 53 48 E 6 1388 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 58 53 E 5 1388 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 62 58 SE 3 1388 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 66 64 SE 3 3744 2778 518 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 72 72 W 2 6113 5237 2977 White 12
12 Noon Sun 75 76 W 2 6966 6657 4397 White 16
1 PM Sun 78 79 W 1 7601 7601 5341 White 19
2 PM Sun 80 80 N 2 7813 7813 5553 White 20
3 PM Sun 81 80 N 2 7813 7813 5553 White 20
4 PM Sun 81 78 N 2 7389 7383 5123 White 18
5 PM Sun 81 77 N 5 7177 7022 4762 White 17
6 PM Sun 77 72 N 5 6113 5237 2977 White 12
7 PM Sun 71 66 N 3 4804 3280 1020 Blue 6
8 PM Sun 67 62 N 5 3174 2260 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sun 64 59 NE 2 1388 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 62 57 E 2 1388 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 61 56 E 5 1388 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 60 55 E 5 1388 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 60 55 E 3 1388 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 58 53 E 5 1388 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 58 53 E 6 1388 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 58 53 E 5 1388 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 57 52 E 7 1388 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 56 51 E 7 1388 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 56 51 E 7 1388 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 61 56 N 6 1388 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 65 61 N 6 2784 2260 0 Blue 1
10 AM Mon 70 68 N 6 5039 4371 2111 Blue 8
11 AM Mon 74 74 W 6 6540 5910 3650 White 14
12 Noon Mon 78 79 W 6 7601 7601 5341 White 19
1 PM Mon 81 82 W 6 8234 8234 5974 White 22
2 PM Mon 84 84 S 6 8651 8651 6391 White 24
3 PM Mon 84 83 S 6 8443 8443 6183 White 23
4 PM Mon 84 81 S 6 8025 8025 5765 White 21
5 PM Mon 84 80 E 20 7813 7813 5553 White 20
6 PM Mon 80 75 E 20 6753 6286 4026 White 15
7 PM Mon 74 69 E 20 5262 4792 2532 Blue 9
8 PM Mon 70 65 E 18 4391 3169 909 Blue 5
9 PM Mon 67 62 E 18 3174 2260 0 Blue 2
10 PM Mon 65 60 E 18 1699 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 64 59 E 10 1388 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 63 58 E 10 1388 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 63 58 E 10 1388 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 61 56 NE 16 1388 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 61 56 NE 16 1388 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 60 55 NE 16 1388 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 60 55 NE 14 1388 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 59 54 NE 14 1388 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 59 54 NE 14 1388 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 64 59 NE 18 1388 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 68 64 NE 18 3744 2778 518 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 72 70 NE 18 5577 4909 2649 Blue 10
11 AM Tue 78 77 NE 17 7177 7022 4762 White 17
12 Noon Tue 81 81 NE 17 8025 8025 5765 White 21
1 PM Tue 84 84 NE 17 8651 8651 6391 White 24
2 PM Tue 86 86 NE 12 9064 9064 6804 White 26
3 PM Tue 88 87 NE 12 9273 9273 7013 White 27
4 PM Tue 88 85 NE 12 8857 8857 6597 White 25
5 PM Tue 87 83 NE 13 8443 8443 6183 White 23
6 PM Tue 83 78 NE 13 7389 7383 5123 White 18
7 PM Tue 76 71 NE 13 5899 5025 2765 White 11
8 PM Tue 72 67 SE 7 4920 3669 1409 Blue 7
9 PM Tue 70 65 SE 7 4391 3169 909 Blue 5
10 PM Tue 67 62 SE 7 3174 2260 0 Blue 2
11 PM Tue 66 61 NE 3 2784 2260 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Wed 65 60 NE 3 1699 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 65 60 NE 3 1699 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 64 59 NE 15 1388 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 63 58 NE 15 1388 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 63 58 NE 15 1388 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 62 57 NE 14 1388 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 61 56 NE 14 1388 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 61 56 NE 14 1388 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 65 60 NE 14 1699 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 70 66 NE 14 4804 3280 1020 Blue 6
10 AM Wed 74 72 NE 14 6113 5237 2977 White 12
11 AM Wed 79 79 E 26 7601 7601 5341 White 19
12 Noon Wed 82 83 E 26 8443 8443 6183 White 23
1 PM Wed 85 86 E 26 9064 9064 6804 White 26
2 PM Wed 88 88 E 18 9482 9482 7222 White 28
3 PM Wed 89 88 E 18 9482 9482 7222 White 28
4 PM Wed 89 86 E 18 9064 9064 6804 White 26
5 PM Wed 88 84 NE 16 8651 8651 6391 White 24
6 PM Wed 84 79 NE 16 7601 7601 5341 White 19
7 PM Wed 78 73 NE 16 6326 5529 3269 White 13
8 PM Wed 74 69 SE 7 5262 4792 2532 Blue 9
9 PM Wed 70 65 SE 7 4391 3169 909 Blue 5
10 PM Wed 68 63 SE 7 3285 2260 0 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 67 62 E 6 3174 2260 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Thu 66 61 E 6 2784 2260 0 Blue 1
1 AM Thu 66 61 E 6 2784 2260 0 Blue 1
2 AM Thu 64 59 NE 10 1388 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 64 59 NE 10 1388 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 64 59 NE 10 1388 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 63 58 NE 14 1388 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 62 57 NE 14 1388 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 62 57 NE 14 1388 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 66 61 NE 14 2784 2260 0 Blue 1
9 AM Thu 70 66 NE 14 4804 3280 1020 Blue 6
10 AM Thu 75 73 NE 14 6326 5529 3269 White 13
11 AM Thu 80 79 NE 20 7601 7601 5341 White 19
12 Noon Thu 83 83 NE 20 8443 8443 6183 White 23
1 PM Thu 86 87 NE 20 9273 9273 7013 White 27
2 PM Thu 88 88 NE 12 9482 9482 7222 White 28
3 PM Thu 90 89 NE 12 9691 9691 7431 White 29
4 PM Thu 90 87 NE 12 9273 9273 7013 White 27
5 PM Thu 89 85 E 15 8857 8857 6597 White 25
6 PM Thu 85 80 E 15 7813 7813 5553 White 20
7 PM Thu 79 74 E 15 6540 5910 3650 White 14
8 PM Thu 76 71 SE 5 5899 5025 2765 White 11
9 PM Thu 73 68 SE 5 5039 4371 2111 Blue 8
10 PM Thu 70 65 SE 5 4391 3169 909 Blue 5
11 PM Thu 70 65 E 3 4391 3169 909 Blue 5
12 Midnight Fri 69 64 E 3 3744 2778 518 Blue 4
1 AM Fri 68 63 E 3 3285 2260 0 Blue 3
2 AM Fri 67 62 NE 9 3174 2260 0 Blue 2
3 AM Fri 67 62 NE 9 3174 2260 0 Blue 2
4 AM Fri 66 61 NE 9 2784 2260 0 Blue 1

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst