Detailed Predictions for: Soboba
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.8223, -116.9588, 2260
LZ Altitude (f): 1520
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

16 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 64 59 W 1 4 2505 2260 0 Blue 2
1 AM Thu 62 57 W 1 5 2090 2260 0 White 0
2 AM Thu 61 56 N 1 1 440 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 60 55 NNW 1 4 440 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 60 55 N 1 1 440 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 59 54 N 1 1 440 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 58 53 N 1 1 440 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 59 54 NNE 1 1 440 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 64 59 WNW 1 5 2505 2260 0 Blue 2
9 AM Thu 67 64 W 2 6 2555 2525 265 Blue 7
10 AM Thu 71 69 W 4 10 2605 2575 315 Blue 12
11 AM Thu 75 75 WSW 5 10 2700 2635 375 Blue 18
12 Noon Thu 78 79 SW 5 11 3026 2721 461 Blue 22
1 PM Thu 81 83 SW 8 14 4081 3278 1018 Blue 26
2 PM Thu 82 83 SW 9 16 4081 3278 1018 Blue 26
3 PM Thu 83 83 SW 9 16 4081 3278 1018 Blue 26
4 PM Thu 83 81 SW 10 17 3556 2895 635 Blue 24
5 PM Thu 82 78 SSW 10 18 2899 2699 439 Blue 21
6 PM Thu 80 75 SSW 8 14 2700 2635 375 Blue 18
7 PM Thu 75 70 SSW 6 12 2616 2585 325 Blue 13
8 PM Thu 72 67 SSW 4 9 2585 2555 295 Blue 10
9 PM Thu 69 64 SSW 3 6 2555 2525 265 Blue 7
10 PM Thu 67 62 SW 1 5 2535 2505 245 Blue 5
11 PM Thu 66 61 SW 1 1 2525 2495 235 Blue 4
12 Midnight Fri 64 59 WSW 1 1 2505 2260 0 Blue 2
1 AM Fri 63 58 WNW 1 1 2311 2260 0 White 1
2 AM Fri 61 56 NW 1 1 440 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 61 56 NNW 1 1 440 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 60 55 NE 0 0 440 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 60 55 ENE 0 0 440 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 59 54 NNE 1 1 440 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 60 55 WNW 1 1 440 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 65 60 W 2 5 2515 2260 0 Blue 3
9 AM Fri 68 64 W 2 6 2555 2525 265 Blue 7
10 AM Fri 72 70 W 3 9 2616 2585 325 Blue 13
11 AM Fri 75 75 W 5 10 2700 2635 375 Blue 18
12 Noon Fri 78 79 WSW 6 12 3026 2721 461 Blue 22
1 PM Fri 81 82 SW 8 13 3819 3015 755 Blue 25
2 PM Fri 82 83 SW 9 16 4081 3278 1018 Blue 26
3 PM Fri 83 82 SW 10 17 3819 3015 755 Blue 25
4 PM Fri 83 81 SSW 10 18 3556 2895 635 Blue 24
5 PM Fri 82 78 SSW 10 18 2899 2699 439 Blue 21
6 PM Fri 80 75 SSW 9 16 2700 2635 375 Blue 18
7 PM Fri 76 71 SSW 6 12 2626 2595 335 Blue 14
8 PM Fri 73 68 SSW 4 9 2595 2565 305 Blue 11
9 PM Fri 71 66 SSW 2 6 2575 2545 285 Blue 9
10 PM Fri 69 64 SSW 2 5 2555 2525 265 Blue 7
11 PM Fri 67 62 SSW 1 4 2535 2505 245 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sat 65 60 W 1 1 2515 2260 0 Blue 3
1 AM Sat 64 59 NNW 1 1 2505 2260 0 Blue 2
2 AM Sat 63 58 NNE 1 1 2311 2260 0 White 1
3 AM Sat 63 58 NE 1 1 2311 2260 0 White 1
4 AM Sat 62 57 E 1 4 2090 2260 0 White 0
5 AM Sat 62 57 E 1 4 2090 2260 0 White 0
6 AM Sat 61 56 SE 1 1 440 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 62 57 SSW 1 1 2090 2260 0 White 0
8 AM Sat 66 61 WSW 1 5 2525 2495 235 Blue 4
9 AM Sat 69 65 WSW 2 6 2565 2535 275 Blue 8
10 AM Sat 72 70 WSW 3 9 2616 2585 325 Blue 13
11 AM Sat 75 75 WSW 5 11 2700 2635 375 Blue 18
12 Noon Sat 78 79 WSW 8 13 3026 2721 461 Blue 22
1 PM Sat 80 81 SW 9 16 3556 2895 635 Blue 24
2 PM Sat 81 81 SW 10 18 3556 2895 635 Blue 24
3 PM Sat 82 81 SW 11 19 3556 2895 635 Blue 24
4 PM Sat 82 80 SW 12 20 3291 2801 541 Blue 23
5 PM Sat 81 77 SW 11 19 2805 2677 417 Blue 20
6 PM Sat 79 74 SW 10 17 2678 2625 365 Blue 17
7 PM Sat 75 70 WSW 6 13 2616 2585 325 Blue 13
8 PM Sat 72 67 W 4 10 2585 2555 295 Blue 10
9 PM Sat 70 65 WSW 3 8 2565 2535 275 Blue 8
10 PM Sat 68 63 WSW 2 6 2545 2515 255 Blue 6
11 PM Sat 66 61 SW 1 5 2525 2495 235 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sun 64 59 W 1 1 2505 2260 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sun 63 58 NNW 1 5 2311 2260 0 White 1
2 AM Sun 62 57 N 1 5 2090 2260 0 White 0
3 AM Sun 62 57 N 1 5 2090 2260 0 White 0
4 AM Sun 61 56 NNE 1 5 440 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 60 55 NNE 1 5 440 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 60 55 NNE 1 5 440 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 61 56 NNE 1 5 440 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 65 60 NNW 2 5 2515 2260 0 Blue 3
9 AM Sun 68 65 NNW 2 5 2565 2535 275 Blue 8
10 AM Sun 72 70 NNW 2 5 2616 2585 325 Blue 13
11 AM Sun 75 75 W 5 10 2700 2635 375 Blue 18
12 Noon Sun 78 79 W 5 10 3026 2721 461 Blue 22
1 PM Sun 80 82 W 5 10 3819 3015 755 Blue 25
2 PM Sun 81 82 W 8 14 3819 3015 755 Blue 25
3 PM Sun 82 82 W 8 14 3819 3015 755 Blue 25
4 PM Sun 82 80 W 8 14 3291 2801 541 Blue 23
5 PM Sun 80 76 WNW 9 16 2722 2655 395 Blue 19
6 PM Sun 79 74 WNW 9 16 2678 2625 365 Blue 17
7 PM Sun 74 69 WNW 9 16 2605 2575 315 Blue 12
8 PM Sun 70 65 SSW 4 10 2565 2535 275 Blue 8
9 PM Sun 67 62 SSW 4 10 2535 2505 245 Blue 5
10 PM Sun 65 60 SSW 4 10 2515 2260 0 Blue 3
11 PM Sun 64 59 S 3 6 2505 2260 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Mon 61 56 S 3 6 440 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 60 55 S 3 6 440 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 59 54 SW 1 5 440 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 58 53 SW 1 5 440 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 58 53 SW 1 5 440 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 57 52 W 1 4 440 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 56 51 W 1 4 440 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 57 52 W 1 4 440 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 63 58 WSW 1 5 2311 2260 0 White 1
9 AM Mon 67 63 WSW 1 5 2545 2515 255 Blue 6
10 AM Mon 71 69 WSW 1 5 2605 2575 315 Blue 12
11 AM Mon 76 76 WSW 3 9 2722 2655 395 Blue 19
12 Noon Mon 79 80 WSW 3 9 3291 2801 541 Blue 23
1 PM Mon 83 85 WSW 3 9 4601 3802 1542 Blue 28
2 PM Mon 84 85 W 4 9 4601 3802 1542 Blue 28
3 PM Mon 85 85 W 4 9 4601 3802 1542 Blue 28
4 PM Mon 85 83 W 4 9 4081 3278 1018 Blue 26
5 PM Mon 84 80 SSW 9 16 3291 2801 541 Blue 23
6 PM Mon 82 77 SSW 9 16 2805 2677 417 Blue 20
7 PM Mon 77 72 SSW 9 16 2636 2605 345 Blue 15
8 PM Mon 74 69 S 3 8 2605 2575 315 Blue 12
9 PM Mon 71 66 S 3 8 2575 2545 285 Blue 9
10 PM Mon 69 64 S 3 8 2555 2525 265 Blue 7
11 PM Mon 68 63 NNW 2 5 2545 2515 255 Blue 6
12 Midnight Tue 66 61 NNW 2 5 2525 2495 235 Blue 4
1 AM Tue 65 60 NNW 2 5 2515 2260 0 Blue 3
2 AM Tue 63 58 E 2 6 2311 2260 0 White 1
3 AM Tue 63 58 E 2 6 2311 2260 0 White 1
4 AM Tue 62 57 E 2 6 2090 2260 0 White 0
5 AM Tue 62 57 E 6 12 2090 2260 0 White 0
6 AM Tue 61 56 E 6 12 440 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 62 57 E 6 12 2090 2260 0 White 0
8 AM Tue 68 63 ESE 2 6 2545 2515 255 Blue 6
9 AM Tue 71 67 ESE 2 6 2585 2555 295 Blue 10
10 AM Tue 76 74 ESE 2 6 2678 2625 365 Blue 17
11 AM Tue 80 80 ENE 5 11 3291 2801 541 Blue 23
12 Noon Tue 84 85 ENE 5 11 4601 3802 1542 Blue 28
1 PM Tue 87 88 ENE 5 11 5197 4578 2318 Blue 31
2 PM Tue 88 89 NE 5 11 5362 4834 2574 Blue 32
3 PM Tue 89 88 NE 5 11 5197 4578 2318 Blue 31
4 PM Tue 89 87 NE 5 11 5032 4320 2060 Blue 30
5 PM Tue 87 83 SSW 10 18 4081 3278 1018 Blue 26
6 PM Tue 86 81 SSW 10 18 3556 2895 635 Blue 24
7 PM Tue 80 75 SSW 10 18 2700 2635 375 Blue 18
8 PM Tue 76 71 S 3 8 2626 2595 335 Blue 14
9 PM Tue 73 68 S 3 8 2595 2565 305 Blue 11
10 PM Tue 70 65 S 3 8 2565 2535 275 Blue 8

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst