Detailed Predictions for: Soboba
Launch Altitude (f): 2260
LZ Altitude (f): 1520
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

19 JUN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 56 51 E 1 551 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 58 53 E 1 551 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 60 55 S 0 910 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 64 60 SW 2 2833 2662 402 Blue 5
9 AM Tue 69 67 W 2 3429 3192 932 Blue 12
10 AM Tue 74 74 W 3 3988 3632 1372 Blue 19
11 AM Tue 80 82 W 5 4773 4406 2146 Blue 27
12 Noon Tue 85 88 W 5 5970 5288 3028 Blue 33
1 PM Tue 90 93 W 5 7097 6393 4133 Blue 38
2 PM Tue 93 96 W 7 7723 7061 4801 Blue 41
3 PM Tue 92 93 W 8 7097 6393 4133 Blue 38
4 PM Tue 91 90 SW 9 6427 5702 3442 Blue 35
5 PM Tue 87 84 SW 10 5113 4656 2396 Blue 29
6 PM Tue 82 78 SW 9 4353 4134 1874 Blue 23
7 PM Tue 77 72 SW 9 3687 3529 1269 Blue 17
8 PM Tue 72 67 S 5 3429 3192 932 Blue 12
9 PM Tue 68 63 S 3 3092 2831 571 Blue 8
10 PM Tue 65 60 S 2 2833 2662 402 Blue 5
11 PM Tue 63 58 E 1 2684 2260 0 White 3
12 Midnight Wed 62 57 SE 1 2455 2260 0 White 2
1 AM Wed 62 57 E 1 2455 2260 0 White 2
2 AM Wed 62 57 E 1 2455 2260 0 White 2
3 AM Wed 62 57 E 1 2455 2260 0 White 2
4 AM Wed 62 57 E 1 2455 2260 0 White 2
5 AM Wed 63 58 E 1 2684 2260 0 White 3
6 AM Wed 65 60 E 2 2833 2662 402 Blue 5
7 AM Wed 69 64 SE 1 3196 2888 628 Blue 9
8 AM Wed 74 70 SW 2 3584 3426 1166 Blue 15
9 AM Wed 79 77 SW 2 4295 3977 1717 Blue 22
10 AM Wed 85 85 W 2 5310 4762 2502 Blue 30
11 AM Wed 91 93 W 5 7097 6393 4133 Blue 38
12 Noon Wed 95 98 W 6 8138 7477 5217 Blue 43
1 PM Wed 98 102 W 7 8961 8301 6041 Blue 47
2 PM Wed 100 103 W 9 9165 8506 6246 Blue 48
3 PM Wed 99 100 SW 9 8551 7890 5630 Blue 45
4 PM Wed 98 98 SW 10 8138 7477 5217 Blue 43
5 PM Wed 95 92 SW 10 6881 6167 3907 Blue 37
6 PM Wed 90 86 SW 9 5507 4895 2635 Blue 31
7 PM Wed 84 79 SW 8 4411 4231 1971 Blue 24
8 PM Wed 79 74 S 5 3988 3632 1372 Blue 19
9 PM Wed 74 69 S 2 3532 3374 1114 Blue 14
10 PM Wed 70 65 SW 1 3301 2984 724 Blue 10
11 PM Wed 67 62 W 1 2988 2775 515 Blue 7
12 Midnight Thu 66 61 NW 1 2890 2718 458 Blue 6
1 AM Thu 65 60 NW 0 2833 2662 402 Blue 5
2 AM Thu 64 59 W 0 2777 2260 0 Blue 4
3 AM Thu 63 58 NW 0 2684 2260 0 White 3
4 AM Thu 62 57 NW 1 2455 2260 0 White 2
5 AM Thu 62 57 N 1 2455 2260 0 White 2
6 AM Thu 63 58 N 1 2684 2260 0 White 3
7 AM Thu 66 61 W 1 2890 2718 458 Blue 6
8 AM Thu 70 66 W 2 3377 3088 828 Blue 11
9 AM Thu 76 74 W 3 3988 3632 1372 Blue 19
10 AM Thu 82 82 W 3 4773 4406 2146 Blue 27
11 AM Thu 88 90 W 6 6427 5702 3442 Blue 35
12 Noon Thu 94 97 SW 7 7931 7269 5009 Blue 42
1 PM Thu 97 101 SW 7 8756 8096 5836 Blue 46
2 PM Thu 98 101 SW 10 8756 8096 5836 Blue 46
3 PM Thu 99 100 SW 12 8551 7890 5630 Blue 45
4 PM Thu 97 96 SW 12 7723 7061 4801 Blue 41
5 PM Thu 94 91 SW 10 6655 5939 3679 Blue 36
6 PM Thu 90 86 SW 9 5507 4895 2635 Blue 31
7 PM Thu 85 80 SW 9 4502 4290 2030 Blue 25
8 PM Thu 80 75 SW 6 4146 3684 1424 Blue 20
9 PM Thu 75 70 SW 3 3584 3426 1166 Blue 15
10 PM Thu 71 66 SW 2 3377 3088 828 Blue 11
11 PM Thu 68 63 SW 1 3092 2831 571 Blue 8
12 Midnight Fri 66 61 W 0 2890 2718 458 Blue 6
1 AM Fri 66 61 NW 1 2890 2718 458 Blue 6
2 AM Fri 65 60 W 1 2833 2662 402 Blue 5
3 AM Fri 63 58 NW 1 2684 2260 0 White 3
4 AM Fri 62 57 NW 1 2455 2260 0 White 2
5 AM Fri 62 57 S 1 2455 2260 0 White 2
6 AM Fri 65 60 S 1 2833 2662 402 Blue 5
7 AM Fri 69 64 S 1 3196 2888 628 Blue 9
8 AM Fri 74 70 SW 5 3584 3426 1166 Blue 15
9 AM Fri 79 77 SW 5 4295 3977 1717 Blue 22
10 AM Fri 84 84 SW 5 5113 4656 2396 Blue 29
11 AM Fri 89 91 SW 8 6655 5939 3679 Blue 36
12 Noon Fri 94 97 SW 8 7931 7269 5009 Blue 42
1 PM Fri 98 101 SW 8 8756 8096 5836 Blue 46
2 PM Fri 100 103 W 12 9165 8506 6246 Blue 48
3 PM Fri 101 102 W 12 8961 8301 6041 Blue 47
4 PM Fri 100 99 W 12 8345 7684 5424 Blue 44
5 PM Fri 98 95 W 13 7515 6844 4584 Blue 40
6 PM Fri 94 90 W 13 6427 5702 3442 Blue 35
7 PM Fri 90 85 W 13 5310 4762 2502 Blue 30
8 PM Fri 85 80 SW 8 4502 4290 2030 Blue 25
9 PM Fri 79 74 SW 8 3988 3632 1372 Blue 19
10 PM Fri 74 69 SW 8 3532 3374 1114 Blue 14
11 PM Fri 70 65 S 2 3301 2984 724 Blue 10
12 Midnight Sat 68 63 S 2 3092 2831 571 Blue 8
1 AM Sat 67 62 S 2 2988 2775 515 Blue 7
2 AM Sat 66 61 W 0 2890 2718 458 Blue 6
3 AM Sat 64 59 W 0 2777 2260 0 Blue 4
4 AM Sat 62 57 W 0 2455 2260 0 White 2
5 AM Sat 62 57 N 1 2455 2260 0 White 2
6 AM Sat 64 59 N 1 2777 2260 0 Blue 4
7 AM Sat 68 63 N 1 3092 2831 571 Blue 8
8 AM Sat 74 70 W 5 3584 3426 1166 Blue 15
9 AM Sat 79 77 W 5 4295 3977 1717 Blue 22
10 AM Sat 85 85 W 5 5310 4762 2502 Blue 30
11 AM Sat 90 92 SW 8 6881 6167 3907 Blue 37
12 Noon Sat 94 97 SW 8 7931 7269 5009 Blue 42
1 PM Sat 96 100 SW 8 8551 7890 5630 Blue 45
2 PM Sat 98 101 SW 12 8756 8096 5836 Blue 46
3 PM Sat 98 99 SW 12 8345 7684 5424 Blue 44
4 PM Sat 96 95 SW 12 7515 6844 4584 Blue 40
5 PM Sat 94 91 SW 12 6655 5939 3679 Blue 36
6 PM Sat 90 86 SW 12 5507 4895 2635 Blue 31
7 PM Sat 85 80 SW 12 4502 4290 2030 Blue 25
8 PM Sat 80 75 W 7 4146 3684 1424 Blue 20
9 PM Sat 74 69 W 7 3532 3374 1114 Blue 14
10 PM Sat 70 65 W 7 3301 2984 724 Blue 10
11 PM Sat 66 61 NW 2 2890 2718 458 Blue 6
12 Midnight Sun 63 58 NW 2 2684 2260 0 White 3
1 AM Sun 62 57 NW 2 2455 2260 0 White 2
2 AM Sun 60 55 N 2 910 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 59 54 N 2 551 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 58 53 N 2 551 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 59 54 N 3 551 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 62 57 N 3 2455 2260 0 White 2
7 AM Sun 66 61 N 3 2890 2718 458 Blue 6
8 AM Sun 71 67 NW 5 3429 3192 932 Blue 12
9 AM Sun 75 73 NW 5 3831 3581 1321 Blue 18
10 AM Sun 79 79 NW 5 4411 4231 1971 Blue 24
11 AM Sun 82 84 SW 7 5113 4656 2396 Blue 29
12 Noon Sun 85 88 SW 7 5970 5288 3028 Blue 33
1 PM Sun 88 92 SW 7 6881 6167 3907 Blue 37
2 PM Sun 89 92 SW 9 6881 6167 3907 Blue 37
3 PM Sun 89 90 SW 9 6427 5702 3442 Blue 35
4 PM Sun 88 87 SW 9 5733 5092 2832 Blue 32
5 PM Sun 85 82 SW 10 4773 4406 2146 Blue 27
6 PM Sun 82 78 SW 10 4353 4134 1874 Blue 23
7 PM Sun 79 74 SW 10 3988 3632 1372 Blue 19
8 PM Sun 75 70 SW 6 3584 3426 1166 Blue 15
9 PM Sun 71 66 SW 6 3377 3088 828 Blue 11
10 PM Sun 66 61 SW 6 2890 2718 458 Blue 6
11 PM Sun 63 58 S 1 2684 2260 0 White 3
12 Midnight Mon 62 57 S 1 2455 2260 0 White 2
1 AM Mon 61 56 S 1 2217 2260 0 White 1
2 AM Mon 61 56 W 0 2217 2260 0 White 1
3 AM Mon 60 55 W 0 910 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 59 54 W 0 551 2260 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst