Detailed Predictions for: Soboba
Launch Altitude (f): 2260
LZ Altitude (f): 1520
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

25 APR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 56 51 SE 1 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 58 53 SE 1 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 60 55 SE 1 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 64 60 SW 1 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 68 66 SW 2 1896 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 72 72 SW 3 2294 2260 0 Blue 6
11 AM Thu 77 78 SW 5 3266 2643 383 Blue 12
12 Noon Thu 81 83 W 5 5274 4072 1812 Blue 17
1 PM Thu 85 87 W 6 6628 5552 3292 Blue 21
2 PM Thu 87 89 W 8 8343 6171 3911 Blue 23
3 PM Thu 87 87 W 9 6628 5552 3292 Blue 21
4 PM Thu 87 85 SW 9 5903 4878 2618 Blue 19
5 PM Thu 84 80 SW 10 4102 3042 782 Blue 14
6 PM Thu 79 74 SW 9 2492 2260 0 Blue 8
7 PM Thu 73 68 SW 8 2059 2260 0 Blue 2
8 PM Thu 68 63 S 6 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 65 60 S 3 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 62 57 S 2 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 61 56 S 1 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 59 54 S 1 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 58 53 S 1 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 57 52 S 1 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 56 51 SE 1 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 55 50 SE 1 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 55 50 SE 1 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 57 52 SE 1 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 59 54 S 1 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 63 59 SW 2 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 67 65 SW 2 1811 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 71 71 SW 3 2244 2260 0 Blue 5
11 AM Fri 75 76 SW 6 2849 2388 128 Blue 10
12 Noon Fri 79 81 SW 7 4510 3246 986 Blue 15
1 PM Fri 83 85 W 8 5903 4878 2618 Blue 19
2 PM Fri 85 87 W 9 6628 5552 3292 Blue 21
3 PM Fri 84 84 W 10 5590 4475 2215 Blue 18
4 PM Fri 84 82 SW 10 4938 3662 1402 Blue 16
5 PM Fri 81 77 SW 10 3050 2489 229 Blue 11
6 PM Fri 77 72 SW 9 2294 2260 0 Blue 6
7 PM Fri 72 67 SW 8 1978 2260 0 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 68 63 S 6 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 64 59 S 3 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 62 57 S 2 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 61 56 S 1 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 60 55 S 1 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 58 53 S 1 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 57 52 S 1 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 56 51 S 1 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 55 50 S 1 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 54 49 S 2 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 54 49 S 2 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 55 50 S 2 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 57 53 SW 3 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 61 58 SW 3 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 66 65 SW 5 1811 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 72 73 SW 6 2390 2260 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Sat 76 78 SW 7 3266 2643 383 Blue 12
1 PM Sat 80 82 W 8 4938 3662 1402 Blue 16
2 PM Sat 82 83 W 9 5274 4072 1812 Blue 17
3 PM Sat 81 81 SW 10 4510 3246 986 Blue 15
4 PM Sat 80 78 SW 13 3266 2643 383 Blue 12
5 PM Sat 78 74 SW 13 2492 2260 0 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 74 69 SW 12 2140 2260 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 70 65 S 9 1811 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 66 61 S 6 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 63 58 SW 5 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 60 55 W 3 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 59 54 W 2 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 58 53 W 2 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 57 52 NW 2 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 56 51 NW 2 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 54 49 NW 2 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 53 48 NW 2 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 52 47 NW 2 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 53 48 NW 2 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 55 50 NW 2 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 58 53 W 3 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 62 58 W 3 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 66 63 W 3 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 70 70 SW 8 2194 2260 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 74 75 SW 8 2648 2294 34 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 76 77 SW 8 3050 2489 229 Blue 11
2 PM Sun 78 79 SW 12 3688 2842 582 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 79 78 SW 12 3266 2643 383 Blue 12
4 PM Sun 78 76 SW 12 2849 2388 128 Blue 10
5 PM Sun 76 72 SW 15 2294 2260 0 Blue 6
6 PM Sun 73 68 SW 15 2059 2260 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 68 63 SW 15 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 65 60 S 10 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 64 59 S 10 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 63 58 S 10 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 63 58 E 2 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 62 57 E 2 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 60 55 E 2 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 58 53 S 8 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 55 50 S 8 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 53 48 S 8 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 51 46 NW 3 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 51 46 NW 3 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 52 47 NW 3 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 55 50 S 7 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 58 54 S 7 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 60 57 S 7 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 63 59 SW 10 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 64 61 SW 10 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 66 63 SW 10 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 66 62 SW 14 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 66 62 SW 14 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 64 60 SW 14 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 63 58 SW 16 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 60 55 SW 16 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 57 52 SW 16 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 55 50 S 12 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 53 48 S 12 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 52 47 S 12 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 51 46 S 8 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 51 46 S 8 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 51 46 S 8 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 51 46 S 6 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 50 45 S 6 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 50 45 S 6 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 49 44 S 6 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 49 44 S 6 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 50 45 S 6 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 51 46 SW 7 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 54 49 SW 7 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 57 53 SW 7 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 61 61 SW 9 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 64 65 SW 9 1811 2260 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 66 67 SW 9 1978 2260 0 Blue 1
2 PM Tue 68 69 SW 14 2140 2260 0 Blue 3
3 PM Tue 68 67 SW 14 1978 2260 0 Blue 1
4 PM Tue 67 65 SW 14 1811 2260 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 66 62 SW 14 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 63 58 SW 14 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 59 54 SW 14 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 56 51 S 10 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 54 49 S 10 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 52 47 S 10 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 51 46 S 7 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 50 45 S 7 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 49 44 S 7 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 48 43 S 6 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 48 43 S 6 1706 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 48 43 S 6 1706 2260 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst