NEWS:

Feb 16, 2021
- Problems getting data from National Weather Service began on Feb 11 impacting operation of the Soaring Predictor software.
The service seems to be working again at about 75% as of this morning, Feb 16.


Backup data is being sourced from WeatherAPI.com however, their free service is limited to 3 days. If you see a three day forecast for your favorite site, thank the WeatherAPI folks. The full 5-day forecasts are receiving input data from the National Weather service (thank them too :-).

Hourly wind gust has been added to the detail page.

RASP and Windgrams should not be impacted


See the southern California RASP Model The detail grid covers the San Diego sites, but the 4km grid covers most of southern California.

Instructional video on reading the RASP Model



Check out the WINDGRAMS


Sounding

Station:

KNKX (alt)

Date/Time:

15 AUG 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Site
Name
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Torrey Pines Gliderport W 8 0 W 8 0 W 9 0 W 9 0 SW 10 0 SW 10 0
Blossom Valley W 11 9768 W 11 9768 W 11 9972
Horse Canyon WNW 11 8798 W 11 9445 WNW 13 9445 WNW 10 8798 ENE 9 3775 E 11 1928
Little Black W 10 748 W 11 863 W 11 863 W 10 711 WSW 11 636 SW 11 562
Marshall SSW 11 9171 SSW 12 9496 SW 12 9171 SSW 12 4768 SW 13 3202 SW 14 1812
Crestline WSW 11 13455 W 11 13653 W 10 13653
Mentone WSW 9 12912 WSW 8 13624 WSW 8 13624
Kagel SSW 10 13322 SSW 11 13714 SSW 11 13322
Lake Elsinore WSW 14 10717 WSW 17 12137 WSW 17 12493 W 16 10717 SW 14 5809 SW 16 3929
Laguna W 6 10703 W 7 10500 W 10 11106
Big Black W 8 11624 W 7 11826 W 8 12027
Otay Mesa WNW 11 873 W 11 913 WNW 11 1062 WNW 12 792 WSW 11 518 WSW 12 518
Soboba SW 13 3212 SW 16 3713 W 12 4172 WSW 12 2298 SW 12 1236 SSW 12 264
Henninger Flats SSW 9 11564 SSW 9 12421 SSW 8 12421
Palomar W 10 596 W 10 948 W 10 948 W 9 0 WSW 9 0 WSW 10 0
Thomas Mt WSW 8 12896 SW 8 13326 WSW 13 13326
Winchester SSW 16 5072 SW 18 5072 SW 14 5072 SW 12 4169 SSW 16 2396 SSW 16 1686
Blackhawk NE 10 8537 E 11 8329 SSW 8 8329 SW 12 8120 ENE 9 7911 E 9 5686
Ord S 13 12693 SSE 17 13090 SSE 14 13090
Warner Springs ESE 8 12670 ESE 8 13928 W 9 14338

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst