NEWS:

Feb 16, 2021
- Problems getting data from National Weather Service began on Feb 11 impacting operation of the Soaring Predictor software.
The service seems to be working again at about 75% as of this morning, Feb 16.


Backup data is being sourced from WeatherAPI.com however, their free service is limited to 3 days. If you see a three day forecast for your favorite site, thank the WeatherAPI folks. The full 5-day forecasts are receiving input data from the National Weather service (thank them too :-).

Hourly wind gust has been added to the detail page.

RASP and Windgrams should not be impacted


See the southern California RASP Model The detail grid covers the San Diego sites, but the 4km grid covers most of southern California.

Instructional video on reading the RASP Model



Check out the WINDGRAMS


Sounding

Station:

KNKX (alt)

Date/Time:

1 AUG 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
Site
Name
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Torrey Pines Gliderport WNW 11 0 NW 11 140 WNW 9 0 W 8 0 WSW 9 0 SSW 9 0
Blossom Valley W 13 7498 W 14 10274 W 11 10274
Horse Canyon WNW 13 10975 WNW 14 11573 WNW 12 11573 W 11 12051 WSW 11 10975 WSW 10 8955
Little Black W 11 606 W 11 749 W 10 678 WSW 9 535 WSW 9 484 SW 9 437
Marshall SW 10 8024 SW 10 9224 SW 9 9224 SW 10 9224 SW 10 8024 SW 11 6617
Crestline SSW 11 6478 SSW 11 7122 SSW 10 7122 SSW 11 7122 SSW 11 3694 SW 11 2982
Mentone W 11 9367 WSW 11 9959 WSW 10 10528 WSW 9 10528 WSW 9 9367 WSW 10 8073
Kagel S 12 3113 SSW 13 3848 SSW 16 4564 SSW 16 4564 SW 14 7167 SSW 16 5264
Lake Elsinore W 11 13022 W 11 14441 W 6 14889
Laguna W 14 12681 W 13 13741 W 10 13939
Big Black W 12 7913 W 13 8544 W 12 7913 WSW 10 7214 WSW 10 4727 SW 10 3284
Otay Mesa WNW 10 5632 WNW 10 6340 W 9 5988
Soboba WNW 14 5132 WNW 14 5839 W 12 5839 WSW 11 5488 WSW 11 4773 SW 11 2654
Henninger Flats SW 11 4597 SW 10 5295 SW 10 5295 SW 11 4242 SW 11 3152 SSW 12 2779
Palomar W 9 1510 WNW 9 3762 W 8 652 WSW 8 652 WSW 8 176 WSW 9 0
Thomas Mt WNW 13 13723 WNW 14 14315 W 12 14705
Winchester WNW 14 6972 NW 14 6972 WSW 10 6972 SW 12 6629 SW 12 6283 SW 12 4858
Blackhawk WSW 11 9771 NNW 9 11226 N 8 11685 SW 11 12133 WSW 10 11226 SW 10 9771
Ord SSW 17 10781 SSW 14 11101 SSW 14 12071 SSW 19 12536 SSW 17 11593 SSW 18 10586
Warner Springs W 13 9823 WNW 13 10371 WSW 13 10413 WSW 13 10819 WSW 12 10329 SW 12 8198

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst