NEWS:

Feb 16, 2021
- Problems getting data from National Weather Service began on Feb 11 impacting operation of the Soaring Predictor software.
The service seems to be working again at about 75% as of this morning, Feb 16.


Backup data is being sourced from WeatherAPI.com however, their free service is limited to 3 days. If you see a three day forecast for your favorite site, thank the WeatherAPI folks. The full 5-day forecasts are receiving input data from the National Weather service (thank them too :-).

Hourly wind gust has been added to the detail page.

RASP and Windgrams should not be impacted


See the southern California RASP Model The detail grid covers the San Diego sites, but the 4km grid covers most of southern California.

Instructional video on reading the RASP Model



Check out the WINDGRAMS


Sounding

Station:

KNKX (alt)

Date/Time:

12 MAY 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon
Site
Name
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Torrey Pines Gliderport W 8 0 W 10 0 W 10 0 WSW 9 0 W 8 0 W 10 0
Blossom Valley WSW 11 2159 W 10 2159 WSW 11 2067 WSW 10 1517 W 10 1103 W 10 1700
Horse Canyon E 12 7417 W 9 7869 W 11 6391 W 13 1264 W 12 0 WNW 12 2802
Little Black W 10 1295 W 10 1347 W 10 1347 WSW 9 1036 W 9 0 W 10 1139
Marshall SW 12 6808 SSW 9 5152 SSW 10 1591 SSW 12 0 SW 10 0 SSW 10 313
Crestline NNE 11 5437 SSW 10 2875 SSW 11 53 S 12 0 SSE 9 0 SSW 9 0
Mentone WSW 17 7836 WSW 10 5870 WSW 10 2907 W 10 783 W 9 125 W 8 877
Kagel S 7 9830 S 8 8862 S 8 7592
Lake Elsinore WSW 12 8494 WSW 12 6846 WSW 13 2735 SW 14 908 WSW 13 257 W 12 1189
Laguna E 16 5995 E 11 7509 WSW 16 6205 WSW 21 3245 W 16 0 WNW 13 936
Big Black WSW 9 6306 WSW 9 2832 WSW 11 982 WSW 11 0 WSW 10 0 W 10 0
Otay Mesa W 9 1468 WNW 9 1379 W 9 1468 W 10 1054 W 10 803 WNW 12 1201
Soboba SW 13 8768 SW 13 7513 SW 14 4789
Henninger Flats SSW 8 2107 SSW 8 876 SSW 10 441 SSW 13 0 SSW 11 0 SW 12 161
Palomar W 8 678 W 8 493 W 9 216 SW 9 0 WSW 8 0 W 9 0
Thomas Mt ESE 9 14361 W 11 12504 W 11 11347
Winchester SSW 11 5282 SW 11 3852 SW 11 2244 SSW 13 1407 SW 11 777 SW 10 1684
Blackhawk E 17 11126 E 12 11126 W 12 10731 SW 20 5970 W 14 2026 W 11 4759
Ord WSW 14 8374 SSW 17 10131 SSW 18 7090 SSW 25 4253 SSW 17 140 SSW 17 5543
Warner Springs ESE 12 6763 SSW 11 6560 WSW 14 4767 WSW 14 0 WSW 14 0 WSW 12 1230

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst