NEWS:

June 29, 2009: This site is running the code developed by Tad Hurst.

I've done some tuning to make the estimates for Marshall, Crestline and Soboba a bit less optimistic. Why not submit your favorite site? I need site name, lat, long, LZ and launch altitudes and the zipcode.

- Alan

See the southern California RASP Model The detail grid covers the San Diego sites, but the 4km grid covers most of southern California.

Instructional video on reading the RASP Model


NEW!
Check out the WINDGRAMS


Site Forecasts

Sounding

Station:

KNKX (alt)

Date/Time:

23 FEB 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
Site
Name
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Torrey Pines Gliderport W 22 0 W 10 0 W 10 0 SW 16 0 W 13 0 W 12 0
Blossom Valley W 16 3415 W 12 5078 W 8 6304 SW 16 5283 SW 12 1241 W 12 4459
Horse Canyon W 21 694 NE 14 3467 NE 23 3677 SW 18 3467 W 16 694 W 16 2410
Little Black W 16 0 W 12 3533 W 10 4375 SW 16 3533 W 9 0 W 12 1659
Marshall NW 14 1521 N 18 2586 N 26 3846 SW 22 2797 SW 9 1521 S 9 2162
Crestline NW 16 327 N 18 1423 N 25 2706 SW 23 1853 S 10 0 S 10 557
Mentone NW 14 2100 SW 9 3168 E 10 4431 SW 20 3801 W 8 2100 SW 6 2528
Kagel N 18 1527 NE 13 3223 NE 17 3642 S 17 2804 NW 12 1740 S 14 2592
Lake Elsinore W 16 3171 W 17 4434 N 12 5474 SW 21 4015 W 14 2745 W 16 3595
Laguna W 35 0 W 23 3317 E 17 3001 SW 24 3317 W 21 366 W 23 2842
Big Black W 16 1195 W 13 3763 E 22 4184 SW 18 3551 W 10 1411 W 13 2702
Otay Mesa W 17 3166 W 10 4834 E 13 6261 W 16 5243 W 13 1196 W 14 4420
Soboba NW 14 2039 NW 10 3738 NE 14 4571 S 21 3738 SW 9 1033 SW 13 2897
Henninger Flats NW 14 2478 SW 10 3943 NE 12 4564 S 14 3318 S 8 2478 S 12 3527
Palomar W 12 0 W 8 2801 E 15 4041 SW 16 2801 SW 9 0 SW 9 1963
Thomas Mt W 28 1085 W 20 3829 NE 24 4240 SW 22 3328 W 14 1085 W 16 2518
Winchester NW 12 2489 NW 9 4185 W 3 5222 S 20 4394 SW 12 1738 SW 13 3346
Blackhawk W 29 372 W 33 3815 NE 6 2759 SW 29 3815 SW 20 923 W 21 3815
Ord W 18 1550 W 22 3697 NE 14 3697 SW 31 3697 S 16 1767 SW 16 2843
Warner Springs W 16 3812 W 14 5715 NE 16 5715 SW 18 5715 W 12 3168 W 15 4662

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst