NEWS:

June 29, 2009: This site is running the code developed by Tad Hurst.

I've done some tuning to make the estimates for Marshall, Crestline and Soboba a bit less optimistic. Why not submit your favorite site? I need site name, lat, long, LZ and launch altitudes and the zipcode.

- Alan

See the southern California RASP Model The detail grid covers the San Diego sites, but the 4km grid covers most of southern California.

Instructional video on reading the RASP Model


NEW!
Check out the WINDGRAMS


Site Forecasts

Sounding

Station:

KNKX (alt)

Date/Time:

16 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
Site
Name
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Torrey Pines Gliderport W 7 140 SW 9 0 W 8 0 W 9 0 W 10 0 W 9 0
Blossom Valley W 8 2598 SW 7 638 W 8 191 W 8 146 W 8 191 W 7 237
Horse Canyon W 14 6601 SW 14 3908 W 13 2739 W 13 2974 W 12 2974 SE 8 3908
Little Black W 8 452 SW 10 225 W 9 59 W 10 59 W 12 26 W 10 59
Marshall SW 9 3398 SW 10 1248 SW 9 119 SW 8 0 SW 8 0 SW 8 1248
Crestline SW 16 158 S 16 0 S 15 0 S 14 0 S 14 0 S 13 0
Mentone W 10 4678 SW 9 2529 W 9 1504 W 9 1214 W 8 105 W 8 2529
Kagel S 14 1504 S 14 0 S 18 0 SW 15 0 SW 14 0 S 15 354
Lake Elsinore SW 14 5145 SW 13 3533 SW 13 1684 SW 12 1684 W 12 1100 W 10 2931
Laguna W 25 4607 SW 22 2640 SW 21 1678 W 22 1030 W 16 413 E 14 1920
Big Black W 14 3435 SW 13 992 W 12 0 W 12 0 W 12 0 W 9 112
Otay Mesa W 10 587 W 10 187 W 10 0 W 12 0 W 13 0 W 12 0
Soboba SW 12 3085 SW 12 1346 SW 12 467 SW 12 286 W 9 0 SW 9 1976
Henninger Flats SW 10 1288 S 10 0 S 10 0 SW 9 0 SW 9 0 SW 10 0
Palomar W 10 1002 SW 10 0 W 9 0 W 8 0 W 9 0 W 8 0
Thomas Mt W 16 7699 SW 13 6995 W 13 3635 W 14 4606 W 13 3635 NW 10 4606
Winchester SW 14 5403 SW 13 2707 S 13 901 S 13 1221 SW 9 721 SW 9 2992
Blackhawk SW 20 9067 SW 17 5131 SW 17 4949 NE 12 4816 N 12 3570 SW 14 4949
Ord S 22 5993 S 21 5001 S 23 3304 S 21 3304 S 18 3304 S 18 4473
Warner Springs W 14 7452 SW 13 5464 SW 13 4507 SW 12 4507 W 12 3912 S 9 5464

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst