Feb 16, 2021
- Problems getting data from National Weather Service began on Feb 11 impacting operation of the Soaring Predictor software.
The service seems to be working again at about 75% as of this morning, Feb 16.

Backup data is being sourced from however, their free service is limited to 3 days. If you see a three day forecast for your favorite site, thank the WeatherAPI folks. The full 5-day forecasts are receiving input data from the National Weather service (thank them too :-).

Hourly wind gust has been added to the detail page.

RASP and Windgrams should not be impacted

See the southern California RASP Model The detail grid covers the San Diego sites, but the 4km grid covers most of southern California.

Instructional video on reading the RASP Model

Check out the WINDGRAMS



KNKX (alt)


27 FEB 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu
Wind Above
Wind Above
Wind Above
Wind Above
Wind Above
Wind Above
Torrey Pines Gliderport W 8 0 ENE 11 140 W 10 140
Blossom Valley WSW 8 2500 ENE 10 1915 ENE 9 2887
Horse Canyon W 8 2416 ENE 19 0 ENE 13 1134
Little Black WSW 8 625 ENE 12 1171 NW 8 1932
Marshall NNW 10 0 NNE 10 0 NNE 4 0
Crestline NNW 10 0 NNE 10 0 NNE 4 424
Mentone NNW 8 0 NE 13 0 SW 4 0
Kagel N 22 3208 N 9 3208 S 8 6138
Lake Elsinore NNW 5 3562 NE 9 2287 E 5 4490
Laguna W 6 4388 ENE 13 0 ENE 10 878
Big Black WSW 8 3155 ENE 13 2528 ENE 8 5789
Otay Mesa W 7 2797 E 10 2603 W 8 4644
Soboba WNW 7 1183 E 11 391 ENE 7 1577
Henninger Flats N 7 417 NNE 9 2310 SSW 7 1993
Palomar WSW 7 0 ENE 10 0 ENE 7 396
Thomas Mt WNW 7 3872 E 13 0 E 12 1993
Winchester WNW 7 1150 E 11 380 ENE 7 1543
Blackhawk W 10 0 SE 8 0 SE 5 817
Ord NW 11 57 NE 16 0 E 6 1321
Warner Springs W 8 0 E 10 0 E 8 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst