Detailed Predictions for: Thomas Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 4550
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

15 JUN 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 49 49 NW 6 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 48 48 NW 5 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 53 53 NW 3 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 67 68 W 1 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 75 78 S 1 9684 6262 362 Blue 7
10 AM Sat 81 86 S 2 15402 12032 6132 Blue 15
11 AM Sat 82 88 S 5 16025 12990 7090 Blue 17
12 Noon Sat 83 90 SW 5 16699 15606 9706 Blue 19
1 PM Sat 83 90 SW 5 16699 15606 9706 Blue 19
2 PM Sat 82 88 W 7 16025 12990 7090 Blue 17
3 PM Sat 82 87 W 8 15711 12517 6617 Blue 16
4 PM Sat 82 86 W 8 15402 12032 6132 Blue 15
5 PM Sat 81 83 W 10 12139 10870 4970 Blue 12
6 PM Sat 79 80 W 10 10935 6785 885 Blue 9
7 PM Sat 75 75 W 10 6270 5900 0 Blue 4
8 PM Sat 69 69 NW 9 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 65 65 NW 9 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 62 62 NW 9 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 59 59 NW 9 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 56 56 NW 9 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 55 55 NW 9 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 53 53 NW 9 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 53 53 NW 8 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 52 52 NW 8 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 51 51 NW 6 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 50 50 NW 5 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 54 54 N 2 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 67 68 S 2 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 74 77 SW 3 6797 6042 142 Blue 6
10 AM Sun 79 84 SW 5 12629 11226 5326 Blue 13
11 AM Sun 80 85 SW 7 13159 11578 5678 Blue 14
12 Noon Sun 81 87 SW 8 15711 12517 6617 Blue 16
1 PM Sun 81 87 W 8 15711 12517 6617 Blue 16
2 PM Sun 80 86 W 10 15402 12032 6132 Blue 15
3 PM Sun 80 85 W 10 13159 11578 5678 Blue 14
4 PM Sun 80 83 W 12 12139 10870 4970 Blue 12
5 PM Sun 79 81 W 13 11294 9227 3327 Blue 10
6 PM Sun 76 76 W 14 6534 5926 26 Blue 5
7 PM Sun 73 73 W 13 5928 5900 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sun 66 66 NW 13 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 62 62 NW 13 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 58 58 NW 13 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 55 55 NW 13 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 53 53 NW 13 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 51 51 NW 13 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 50 50 NW 13 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 49 49 NW 10 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 48 48 NW 9 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 47 47 N 6 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 46 46 NE 3 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 51 51 E 3 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 64 65 SE 7 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 72 74 SE 6 6045 5900 0 Blue 3
10 AM Mon 77 81 SE 6 11294 9227 3327 Blue 10
11 AM Mon 78 84 S 6 12629 11226 5326 Blue 13
12 Noon Mon 79 86 SW 5 15402 12032 6132 Blue 15
1 PM Mon 79 87 W 5 15711 12517 6617 Blue 16
2 PM Mon 78 85 W 9 13159 11578 5678 Blue 14
3 PM Mon 78 84 W 10 12629 11226 5326 Blue 13
4 PM Mon 78 82 W 12 11648 10419 4519 Blue 11
5 PM Mon 77 79 W 14 10493 6524 624 Blue 8
6 PM Mon 75 76 W 14 6534 5926 26 Blue 5
7 PM Mon 71 71 NW 13 5650 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 65 65 NW 12 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 61 61 NW 10 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 58 58 NW 10 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 55 55 NW 10 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 52 52 NW 10 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 51 51 NW 9 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 49 49 N 6 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 49 49 NE 5 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 48 48 NE 6 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 47 47 E 3 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 46 46 E 3 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 51 51 E 3 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 66 67 NE 6 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 75 78 NE 6 9684 6262 362 Blue 7
10 AM Tue 81 86 NE 6 15402 12032 6132 Blue 15
11 AM Tue 82 89 E 7 16364 15300 9400 Blue 18
12 Noon Tue 83 91 E 7 17030 15910 10010 Blue 20
1 PM Tue 83 91 E 7 17030 15910 10010 Blue 20
2 PM Tue 83 90 S 2 16699 15606 9706 Blue 19
3 PM Tue 82 88 S 2 16025 12990 7090 Blue 17
4 PM Tue 82 86 S 2 15402 12032 6132 Blue 15
5 PM Tue 81 83 W 9 12139 10870 4970 Blue 12
6 PM Tue 78 79 W 9 10493 6524 624 Blue 8
7 PM Tue 75 75 W 9 6270 5900 0 Blue 4
8 PM Tue 68 68 W 6 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 63 63 W 6 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 60 60 W 6 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 56 56 NW 9 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 54 54 NW 9 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 52 52 NW 9 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 51 51 NW 9 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 50 50 NW 9 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 49 49 NW 9 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 48 48 NW 5 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 47 47 NW 5 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 52 52 NW 5 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 67 68 E 1 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 76 79 E 1 10493 6524 624 Blue 8
10 AM Wed 82 87 E 1 15711 12517 6617 Blue 16
11 AM Wed 83 90 SW 5 16699 15606 9706 Blue 19
12 Noon Wed 84 92 SW 5 17357 16241 10341 Blue 21
1 PM Wed 84 92 SW 5 17357 16241 10341 Blue 21
2 PM Wed 84 91 W 8 17030 15910 10010 Blue 20
3 PM Wed 83 89 W 8 16364 15300 9400 Blue 18
4 PM Wed 82 86 W 8 15402 12032 6132 Blue 15
5 PM Wed 82 84 W 13 12629 11226 5326 Blue 13
6 PM Wed 79 80 W 13 10935 6785 885 Blue 9
7 PM Wed 76 76 W 13 6534 5926 26 Blue 5
8 PM Wed 68 68 W 10 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 64 64 W 10 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 60 60 W 10 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 57 57 W 10 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 54 54 W 10 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 52 52 W 10 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 51 51 NW 12 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 50 50 NW 12 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 49 49 NW 12 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 48 48 NW 9 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 47 47 NW 9 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 52 52 NW 9 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 66 67 W 8 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 73 76 W 8 6534 5926 26 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 79 84 W 8 12629 11226 5326 Blue 13
11 AM Thu 80 87 W 10 15711 12517 6617 Blue 16
12 Noon Thu 81 89 W 10 16364 15300 9400 Blue 18
1 PM Thu 81 89 W 10 16364 15300 9400 Blue 18
2 PM Thu 81 89 W 14 16364 15300 9400 Blue 18
3 PM Thu 80 86 W 14 15402 12032 6132 Blue 15
4 PM Thu 80 84 W 14 12629 11226 5326 Blue 13
5 PM Thu 79 81 W 16 11294 9227 3327 Blue 10
6 PM Thu 76 77 W 16 6797 6042 142 Blue 6
7 PM Thu 73 73 W 16 5928 5900 0 Blue 2
8 PM Thu 66 66 W 15 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 62 62 W 15 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 58 58 W 15 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 55 55 W 14 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 53 53 W 14 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 51 51 W 14 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 50 50 W 14 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 49 49 W 14 5259 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 48 48 W 14 5259 5900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst