Detailed Predictions for: Thomas Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 4550
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Thu 40 40 E 7 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 40 40 E 6 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 39 39 E 6 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 39 39 E 5 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 41 41 E 5 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 48 48 SE 5 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 56 57 SE 6 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 59 61 S 6 5957 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 61 63 S 5 7386 5900 0 Blue 1
1 PM Thu 61 63 SW 7 7386 5900 0 Blue 1
2 PM Thu 61 62 W 8 6523 5900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 62 62 W 8 6523 5900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 59 59 W 9 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 54 54 W 8 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 49 49 W 8 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 47 47 W 7 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 46 46 W 7 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 44 44 W 7 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 44 44 W 7 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 43 43 W 8 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 42 42 W 8 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 41 41 W 9 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 39 39 W 9 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 39 39 W 10 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 39 39 W 10 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 38 38 W 10 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 37 37 W 9 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 37 37 W 9 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 38 38 W 10 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 43 43 W 10 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 48 48 W 13 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 50 51 W 13 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 51 52 W 14 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 51 52 W 16 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 51 51 W 17 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 52 52 W 17 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 49 49 W 18 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 44 44 W 20 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 39 39 W 20 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 36 36 W 22 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 35 35 W 21 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 34 34 W 21 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 33 33 W 23 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 32 32 W 21 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 31 31 W 21 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 30 30 W 20 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 28 28 W 17 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 28 28 W 17 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 28 28 W 16 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 27 27 W 18 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 26 26 W 20 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 26 26 W 18 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 27 27 NW 18 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 31 31 NW 17 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 36 37 NW 17 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 37 39 NW 15 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 38 40 W 15 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 38 40 W 16 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 38 39 W 16 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 39 39 W 15 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 38 38 W 15 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 35 35 NW 16 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 33 33 NW 16 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 32 32 NW 13 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 32 32 NW 13 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 31 31 NW 13 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 31 31 NW 7 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 31 31 NW 7 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 30 30 NW 7 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 30 30 N 1 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 29 29 N 1 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 29 29 N 1 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 29 29 NE 3 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 28 28 NE 3 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 28 28 NE 3 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 28 28 E 5 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 29 29 E 5 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 34 35 E 5 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 41 42 E 2 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 43 45 E 2 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 44 46 E 2 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 45 47 N 2 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 45 46 N 2 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 45 45 N 2 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 43 43 W 2 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 40 40 W 2 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 37 37 W 2 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 36 36 NW 3 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 35 35 NW 3 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 34 34 NW 3 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 34 34 N 3 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 34 34 N 3 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 33 33 N 3 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 33 33 N 5 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 31 31 N 5 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 31 31 N 5 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 31 31 N 3 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 30 30 N 3 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 30 30 N 3 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 30 30 N 5 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 31 31 N 5 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 38 38 N 5 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 45 46 N 6 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 47 48 N 6 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 49 51 N 6 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 50 51 NW 7 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 50 51 NW 7 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 50 50 NW 7 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 48 48 W 8 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 44 44 W 8 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 41 41 W 8 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 40 40 NW 10 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 39 39 NW 10 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 38 38 NW 10 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 38 38 NW 7 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 37 37 NW 7 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 36 36 NW 7 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 36 36 NW 13 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 35 35 NW 13 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 34 34 NW 13 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 34 34 N 6 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 34 34 N 6 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 33 33 N 6 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 33 33 N 7 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 34 34 N 7 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 41 42 N 7 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 49 50 N 8 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 51 53 N 8 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 53 55 N 8 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 54 56 NE 7 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 54 55 NE 7 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 54 54 NE 7 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 52 52 N 7 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 48 48 N 7 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 44 44 N 7 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 42 42 NE 10 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 41 41 NE 10 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 40 40 NE 10 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 40 40 NE 7 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 40 40 NE 7 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 39 39 NE 7 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 38 38 NE 9 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 37 37 NE 9 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 37 37 NE 9 5082 5900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst