Detailed Predictions for: Thomas Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 4550
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

17 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Fri 42 42 W 15 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 42 42 W 16 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 42 42 W 16 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 43 43 W 17 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 47 47 W 17 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 54 54 W 18 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 57 58 W 18 6595 5900 0 Blue 2
11 AM Fri 59 60 W 20 7305 6146 246 Blue 4
12 Noon Fri 59 60 W 21 7305 6146 246 Blue 4
1 PM Fri 60 61 W 22 7707 6584 684 Blue 5
2 PM Fri 60 61 W 23 7707 6584 684 Blue 5
3 PM Fri 58 58 W 22 6595 5900 0 Blue 2
4 PM Fri 55 55 W 20 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 53 53 W 16 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 50 50 W 13 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 48 48 NW 10 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 46 46 NW 12 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 45 45 NW 12 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 43 43 NW 9 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 43 43 NW 9 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 42 42 N 7 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 42 42 NE 9 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 40 40 N 8 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 40 40 N 8 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 39 39 NE 9 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 39 39 NE 9 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 39 39 NE 9 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 40 40 NE 8 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 45 45 NE 8 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 53 54 NE 8 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 58 60 NE 7 7305 6146 246 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 60 63 E 6 8433 7279 1379 Blue 7
12 Noon Sat 60 63 E 5 8433 7279 1379 Blue 7
1 PM Sat 61 63 E 3 8433 7279 1379 Blue 7
2 PM Sat 61 62 SE 2 8108 6876 976 Blue 6
3 PM Sat 58 58 E 2 6595 5900 0 Blue 2
4 PM Sat 55 55 E 3 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 53 53 E 5 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 49 49 NE 5 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 47 47 NE 6 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 45 45 NE 6 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 43 43 NE 7 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 41 41 NE 5 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 41 41 NE 5 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 40 40 N 6 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 39 39 N 3 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 38 38 N 3 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 37 37 N 5 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 36 36 N 5 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 36 36 N 5 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 36 36 NW 5 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 37 37 N 6 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 43 43 N 5 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 54 55 N 3 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 59 61 NW 1 7707 6584 684 Blue 5
11 AM Sun 61 64 W 2 8576 7677 1777 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 62 65 W 5 9491 8071 2171 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 63 65 W 5 9491 8071 2171 Blue 9
2 PM Sun 63 64 W 6 8576 7677 1777 Blue 8
3 PM Sun 60 60 W 7 7305 6146 246 Blue 4
4 PM Sun 57 57 NW 8 6168 5900 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sun 55 55 NW 8 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 51 51 NW 8 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 49 49 NW 8 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 47 47 NW 8 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 45 45 NW 7 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 43 43 NW 7 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 43 43 NW 7 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 42 42 NW 7 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 41 41 NW 7 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 40 40 NW 7 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 39 39 NW 7 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 38 38 NW 7 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 38 38 NW 7 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 38 38 NW 7 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 39 39 NW 9 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 45 45 NW 9 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 55 56 NW 9 5660 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 60 62 NW 7 8108 6876 976 Blue 6
11 AM Mon 62 64 NW 7 8576 7677 1777 Blue 8
12 Noon Mon 64 66 NW 7 9885 8419 2519 Blue 10
1 PM Mon 64 66 W 9 9885 8419 2519 Blue 10
2 PM Mon 64 65 W 9 9491 8071 2171 Blue 9
3 PM Mon 62 62 W 9 8108 6876 976 Blue 6
4 PM Mon 59 59 NW 8 6896 5900 0 Blue 3
5 PM Mon 57 57 NW 8 6168 5900 0 Blue 1
6 PM Mon 54 54 NW 8 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 52 52 NE 6 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 50 50 NE 6 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 49 49 NE 6 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 47 47 NE 6 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 47 47 NE 6 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 46 46 NE 6 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 46 46 NE 6 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 44 44 NE 6 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 44 44 NE 6 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 43 43 E 5 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 43 43 E 5 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 43 43 E 5 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 44 44 NE 6 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 50 NE 6 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 60 61 NE 6 7707 6584 684 Blue 5
10 AM Tue 65 66 E 2 9885 8419 2519 Blue 10
11 AM Tue 67 69 E 2 11275 9828 3928 Blue 13
12 Noon Tue 69 71 E 2 11612 11034 5134 Blue 15
1 PM Tue 69 71 SW 2 11612 11034 5134 Blue 15
2 PM Tue 69 70 SW 2 11416 10213 4313 Blue 14
3 PM Tue 66 66 SW 2 9885 8419 2519 Blue 10
4 PM Tue 63 63 N 2 8433 7279 1379 Blue 7
5 PM Tue 61 61 N 2 7707 6584 684 Blue 5
6 PM Tue 58 58 N 2 6595 5900 0 Blue 2
7 PM Tue 55 55 NE 5 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 53 53 NE 5 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 52 52 NE 5 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 50 50 NE 9 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 50 50 NE 9 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 49 49 NE 9 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 48 48 NE 9 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 46 46 NE 9 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 46 46 NE 9 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 45 45 NE 9 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 45 45 NE 9 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 45 45 NE 9 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 46 46 NE 10 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 52 52 NE 10 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 62 63 NE 10 8433 7279 1379 Blue 7
10 AM Wed 67 69 NE 10 11275 9828 3928 Blue 13
11 AM Wed 69 72 NE 10 12051 11247 5347 Blue 16
12 Noon Wed 71 74 NE 10 13076 11567 5667 Blue 18
1 PM Wed 71 73 NE 8 12562 11388 5488 Blue 17
2 PM Wed 71 72 NE 8 12051 11247 5347 Blue 16
3 PM Wed 68 68 NE 8 11084 9437 3537 Blue 12
4 PM Wed 65 65 NE 9 9491 8071 2171 Blue 9
5 PM Wed 62 62 NE 9 8108 6876 976 Blue 6
6 PM Wed 59 59 NE 9 6896 5900 0 Blue 3
7 PM Wed 56 56 NE 10 5660 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 54 54 NE 10 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 52 52 NE 10 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 50 50 NE 9 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 50 50 NE 9 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 49 49 NE 9 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 48 48 NE 8 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 47 47 NE 8 5049 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 46 46 NE 8 5049 5900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst