Detailed Predictions for: Thomas Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 4550
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

17 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 38 38 W 8 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 37 37 W 8 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 37 37 W 9 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 41 41 W 9 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 48 49 W 10 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 57 59 W 12 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 64 67 W 14 8097 6743 843 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 68 72 W 15 8968 8407 2507 Blue 10
1 PM Thu 68 72 W 16 8968 8407 2507 Blue 10
2 PM Thu 68 72 W 17 8968 8407 2507 Blue 10
3 PM Thu 66 69 W 17 8425 7968 2068 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 62 63 W 17 6529 5900 0 Blue 1
5 PM Thu 57 57 W 17 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 51 51 W 15 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 44 44 W 14 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 39 39 W 14 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 37 37 W 14 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 37 37 W 14 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 38 38 NW 14 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 37 37 NW 14 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 36 36 NW 13 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 34 34 NW 14 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 33 33 NW 14 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 33 33 NW 13 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 34 34 NW 10 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 36 36 N 12 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 40 40 N 14 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 44 44 NE 15 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 48 49 NE 16 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 52 54 NE 17 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 57 60 NE 16 5063 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 62 66 NE 14 7978 6522 622 Blue 4
1 PM Fri 66 70 NE 10 8606 8087 2187 Blue 8
2 PM Fri 70 73 NE 8 9101 8587 2687 Blue 11
3 PM Fri 70 72 NE 7 8968 8407 2507 Blue 10
4 PM Fri 70 71 N 7 8787 8227 2327 Blue 9
5 PM Fri 66 66 NW 7 7978 6522 622 Blue 4
6 PM Fri 60 60 NW 6 5063 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 54 54 NW 6 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 49 49 NW 6 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 46 46 NW 6 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 45 45 NW 6 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 44 44 NW 6 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 43 43 NW 6 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 41 41 NW 6 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 38 38 NW 6 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 36 36 NW 6 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 34 34 NW 6 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 34 34 NW 6 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 38 38 NW 6 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 44 44 NW 7 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 50 50 NW 8 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 56 57 NW 8 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 62 64 NW 7 6756 5900 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 66 69 NW 7 8425 7968 2068 Blue 7
12 Noon Sat 70 74 NW 8 9329 8767 2867 Blue 12
1 PM Sat 72 76 NW 9 10186 9085 3185 Blue 14
2 PM Sat 71 75 W 12 9633 8947 3047 Blue 13
3 PM Sat 71 74 W 13 9329 8767 2867 Blue 12
4 PM Sat 67 68 W 14 8244 7170 1270 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 62 62 W 15 6289 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 56 56 W 14 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 49 49 NW 13 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 43 43 NW 12 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 38 38 NW 12 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 36 36 NW 12 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 37 37 NW 13 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 40 40 NW 14 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 44 44 NW 16 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 47 47 NW 17 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 46 46 NW 17 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 43 43 NW 15 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 42 42 NW 14 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 45 45 NW 14 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 50 50 NW 14 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 56 56 NW 14 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 61 62 NW 14 6289 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 64 66 NW 14 7978 6522 622 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 67 70 NE 16 8606 8087 2187 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 69 73 NE 16 9101 8587 2687 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 71 75 NE 16 9633 8947 3047 Blue 13
2 PM Sun 71 75 NE 15 9633 8947 3047 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 72 75 NE 15 9633 8947 3047 Blue 13
4 PM Sun 69 70 NE 15 8606 8087 2187 Blue 8
5 PM Sun 65 65 NE 15 7241 6271 371 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 60 60 NE 15 5063 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 54 54 NE 15 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 51 51 NE 16 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 49 49 NE 16 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 49 49 NE 16 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 48 48 NE 18 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 46 46 NE 18 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 43 43 NE 18 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 40 40 NE 21 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 38 38 NE 21 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 37 37 NE 21 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 36 36 NE 20 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 34 34 NE 20 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 34 34 NE 20 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 36 36 NE 20 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 41 42 NE 20 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 49 51 NE 20 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 56 59 NE 18 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 63 67 NE 18 8097 6743 843 Blue 5
1 PM Mon 68 72 NE 18 8968 8407 2507 Blue 10
2 PM Mon 71 75 NE 16 9633 8947 3047 Blue 13
3 PM Mon 72 75 NE 16 9633 8947 3047 Blue 13
4 PM Mon 72 73 NE 16 9101 8587 2687 Blue 11
5 PM Mon 68 68 NE 15 8244 7170 1270 Blue 6
6 PM Mon 60 60 NE 15 5063 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 49 49 NE 15 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 41 41 NE 14 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 37 37 NE 14 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 37 37 NE 14 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 37 37 NE 14 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 38 38 NE 14 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 38 38 NE 14 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 38 38 NE 14 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 38 38 NE 14 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 38 38 NE 14 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 39 39 NE 13 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 40 40 NE 13 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 42 42 NE 13 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 45 45 NE 12 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 49 50 NE 12 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 54 56 NE 12 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 59 62 NE 9 6289 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 64 68 NE 9 8244 7170 1270 Blue 6
1 PM Tue 69 73 NE 9 9101 8587 2687 Blue 11
2 PM Tue 74 78 E 7 11689 9591 3691 Blue 16
3 PM Tue 77 80 E 7 12981 10828 4928 Blue 18
4 PM Tue 77 78 E 7 11689 9591 3691 Blue 16
5 PM Tue 74 74 W 7 9329 8767 2867 Blue 12
6 PM Tue 66 66 W 7 7978 6522 622 Blue 4
7 PM Tue 56 56 W 7 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 48 48 NW 6 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 44 44 NW 6 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 44 44 NW 6 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 45 45 NW 6 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 45 45 NW 6 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 43 43 NW 6 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 40 40 NW 7 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 38 38 NW 7 5026 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 37 37 NW 7 5026 5900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst