Detailed Predictions for: Thomas Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 4550
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

26 APR 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 43 43 NW 8 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 46 46 NW 8 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 52 52 NW 7 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 58 59 NW 5 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 62 64 NW 3 6805 6156 256 Blue 3
10 AM Thu 65 69 NW 6 8595 7234 1334 Blue 8
11 AM Thu 67 72 W 8 10043 8546 2646 Blue 11
12 Noon Thu 68 74 W 8 11445 9468 3568 Blue 13
1 PM Thu 68 74 W 9 11445 9468 3568 Blue 13
2 PM Thu 69 74 W 12 11445 9468 3568 Blue 13
3 PM Thu 68 72 W 13 10043 8546 2646 Blue 11
4 PM Thu 66 69 W 13 8595 7234 1334 Blue 8
5 PM Thu 63 64 W 14 6805 6156 256 Blue 3
6 PM Thu 58 58 W 14 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 54 54 NW 13 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 50 50 NW 13 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 49 49 NW 13 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 48 48 NW 13 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 49 49 NW 13 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 48 48 NW 13 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 47 47 NW 14 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 46 46 NW 14 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 44 44 NW 14 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 43 43 NW 14 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 43 43 NW 14 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 46 46 NW 13 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 50 50 NW 13 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 55 56 NW 13 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 59 62 NW 13 6405 5900 0 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 61 65 W 12 6981 6396 496 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 64 70 W 12 9067 7608 1708 Blue 9
12 Noon Fri 65 73 W 12 10747 9012 3112 Blue 12
1 PM Fri 65 73 W 13 10747 9012 3112 Blue 12
2 PM Fri 66 73 W 15 10747 9012 3112 Blue 12
3 PM Fri 65 70 W 15 9067 7608 1708 Blue 9
4 PM Fri 62 65 W 16 6981 6396 496 Blue 4
5 PM Fri 59 60 W 16 5272 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 55 55 W 15 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 50 50 W 15 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 47 47 NW 15 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 45 45 NW 14 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 45 45 W 14 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 45 45 W 14 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 45 45 W 15 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 44 44 W 15 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 43 43 W 16 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 42 42 NW 16 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 41 41 NW 15 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 41 41 NW 15 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 42 42 NW 16 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 44 44 NW 17 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 46 47 NW 17 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 49 52 NW 17 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 52 56 NW 16 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 56 62 NW 16 6405 5900 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sat 58 65 NW 16 6981 6396 496 Blue 4
1 PM Sat 60 67 W 17 7639 6799 899 Blue 6
2 PM Sat 60 66 W 17 7250 6635 735 Blue 5
3 PM Sat 60 65 W 17 6981 6396 496 Blue 4
4 PM Sat 58 61 W 17 5532 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 55 56 W 17 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 51 51 W 17 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 47 47 W 17 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 43 43 W 17 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 40 40 W 16 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 39 39 W 15 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 39 39 W 14 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 40 40 W 15 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 41 41 W 15 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 42 42 NW 15 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 43 43 NW 15 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 42 42 NW 14 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 43 43 NW 14 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 44 44 NW 14 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 45 45 NW 14 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 48 49 NW 15 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 51 54 NW 15 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 54 59 NW 15 5010 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 56 62 W 16 6405 5900 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sun 59 65 W 16 6981 6396 496 Blue 4
1 PM Sun 60 67 W 16 7639 6799 899 Blue 6
2 PM Sun 61 67 W 20 7639 6799 899 Blue 6
3 PM Sun 60 64 W 20 6805 6156 256 Blue 3
4 PM Sun 58 61 W 20 5532 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 54 55 W 22 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 50 50 W 22 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 47 47 W 22 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 44 44 W 18 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 43 43 W 18 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 44 44 W 18 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 44 44 W 14 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 44 44 W 14 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 43 43 W 14 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 42 42 W 12 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 40 40 W 12 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 38 38 W 12 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 38 38 W 12 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 40 40 W 12 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 44 44 W 12 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 48 48 W 16 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 50 52 W 16 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 51 54 W 16 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 52 55 W 21 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 53 57 W 21 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 54 58 W 21 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 54 58 W 22 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 54 57 W 22 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 52 54 W 22 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 50 51 W 21 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 46 46 W 21 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 43 43 W 21 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 40 40 W 17 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 38 38 W 17 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 38 38 W 17 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 38 38 W 13 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 38 38 W 13 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 37 37 W 13 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 37 37 W 12 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 37 37 W 12 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 36 36 W 12 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 36 36 W 10 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 36 36 W 10 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 36 36 W 10 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 37 37 W 10 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 39 39 W 10 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 42 42 W 10 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 46 48 W 10 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 49 51 W 10 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 52 54 W 10 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 54 56 W 13 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 54 55 W 13 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 52 53 W 13 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 49 49 W 14 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 45 45 W 14 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 40 40 W 14 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 37 37 W 14 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 37 37 W 14 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 38 38 W 14 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 40 40 NW 13 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 41 41 NW 13 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 43 43 NW 13 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 43 43 NW 12 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 44 44 NW 12 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 44 44 NW 12 4921 5900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst