Detailed Predictions for: Thomas Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 4550
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

19 JUN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 54 54 NE 7 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 58 58 E 7 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 62 62 E 7 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 66 67 E 9 5699 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 70 73 E 9 7131 6422 522 Blue 6
10 AM Tue 72 77 E 9 8006 7337 1437 Blue 10
11 AM Tue 75 82 E 9 9086 8419 2519 Blue 15
12 Noon Tue 78 86 E 8 9939 9273 3373 Blue 19
1 PM Tue 81 89 E 6 10589 9908 4008 Blue 22
2 PM Tue 83 91 S 2 11036 10329 4429 Blue 24
3 PM Tue 82 88 NW 2 10364 9697 3797 Blue 21
4 PM Tue 81 85 NW 5 9726 9060 3160 Blue 18
5 PM Tue 76 78 NW 8 8223 7555 1655 Blue 11
6 PM Tue 70 71 NW 8 6669 5945 45 Blue 4
7 PM Tue 63 63 NW 8 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 58 58 NW 7 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 56 56 NW 7 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 55 55 NW 6 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 55 55 N 5 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 55 55 N 6 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 54 54 N 6 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 54 54 N 6 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 54 54 NE 6 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 55 55 NE 8 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 57 57 NE 10 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 61 61 NE 10 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 67 67 NE 10 5699 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 72 74 NE 10 7351 6659 759 Blue 7
9 AM Wed 76 79 NE 10 8440 7771 1871 Blue 12
10 AM Wed 79 84 E 10 9513 8847 2947 Blue 17
11 AM Wed 82 89 E 9 10589 9908 4008 Blue 22
12 Noon Wed 85 93 E 8 11481 10774 4874 Blue 26
1 PM Wed 88 97 E 8 14028 11698 5798 Blue 30
2 PM Wed 90 98 SE 6 14878 12227 6327 Blue 31
3 PM Wed 89 95 SE 2 12344 11217 5317 Blue 28
4 PM Wed 88 92 NW 1 11259 10551 4651 Blue 25
5 PM Wed 84 86 NW 9 9939 9273 3373 Blue 19
6 PM Wed 79 80 NW 9 8656 7988 2088 Blue 13
7 PM Wed 72 72 NW 9 6907 6184 284 Blue 5
8 PM Wed 67 67 NW 8 5699 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 64 64 NW 8 5057 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 62 62 NW 8 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 61 61 NW 9 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 61 61 NW 9 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 61 61 NW 9 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 60 60 NW 8 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 58 58 NW 7 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 56 56 N 5 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 57 57 NE 2 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 62 62 E 3 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 70 70 E 3 6430 5900 0 Blue 3
8 AM Thu 77 78 SE 5 8223 7555 1655 Blue 11
9 AM Thu 82 85 SE 6 9726 9060 3160 Blue 18
10 AM Thu 85 90 SE 7 10813 10119 4219 Blue 23
11 AM Thu 87 94 S 8 11809 10996 5096 Blue 27
12 Noon Thu 89 97 S 7 14028 11698 5798 Blue 30
1 PM Thu 89 98 SW 5 14878 12227 6327 Blue 31
2 PM Thu 90 98 W 8 14878 12227 6327 Blue 31
3 PM Thu 88 94 NW 8 11809 10996 5096 Blue 27
4 PM Thu 85 89 NW 9 10589 9908 4008 Blue 22
5 PM Thu 80 82 NW 12 9086 8419 2519 Blue 15
6 PM Thu 75 76 NW 12 7788 7119 1219 Blue 9
7 PM Thu 70 70 W 10 6430 5900 0 Blue 3
8 PM Thu 65 65 NW 10 5263 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 62 62 NW 10 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 61 61 NW 10 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 60 60 NW 12 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 60 60 NW 13 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 60 60 NW 13 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 59 59 NW 13 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 57 57 NW 14 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 56 56 NW 13 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 56 56 NW 10 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 60 60 NW 10 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 66 66 NW 10 5470 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 72 73 NW 12 7131 6422 522 Blue 6
9 AM Fri 77 80 NW 12 8656 7988 2088 Blue 13
10 AM Fri 80 85 NW 12 9726 9060 3160 Blue 18
11 AM Fri 83 90 W 13 10813 10119 4219 Blue 23
12 Noon Fri 86 94 W 13 11809 10996 5096 Blue 27
1 PM Fri 88 96 W 13 13087 11438 5538 Blue 29
2 PM Fri 89 97 W 15 14028 11698 5798 Blue 30
3 PM Fri 88 94 W 15 11809 10996 5096 Blue 27
4 PM Fri 85 89 W 15 10589 9908 4008 Blue 22
5 PM Fri 80 82 W 15 9086 8419 2519 Blue 15
6 PM Fri 74 75 W 15 7570 6895 995 Blue 8
7 PM Fri 69 69 W 15 6190 5900 0 Blue 2
8 PM Fri 65 65 NW 14 5263 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 63 63 NW 14 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 63 63 NW 14 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 64 64 NW 13 5057 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 65 65 NW 13 5263 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 64 64 NW 13 5057 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 62 62 NW 10 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 59 59 NW 10 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 56 56 NW 10 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 56 56 NW 8 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 62 62 NW 8 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 70 70 NW 8 6430 5900 0 Blue 3
8 AM Sat 78 79 W 8 8440 7771 1871 Blue 12
9 AM Sat 83 86 W 8 9939 9273 3373 Blue 19
10 AM Sat 86 91 W 8 11036 10329 4429 Blue 24
11 AM Sat 87 94 W 8 11809 10996 5096 Blue 27
12 Noon Sat 88 96 W 8 13087 11438 5538 Blue 29
1 PM Sat 89 98 W 8 14878 12227 6327 Blue 31
2 PM Sat 89 97 W 10 14028 11698 5798 Blue 30
3 PM Sat 87 93 W 10 11481 10774 4874 Blue 26
4 PM Sat 84 88 W 10 10364 9697 3797 Blue 21
5 PM Sat 81 83 W 12 9300 8633 2733 Blue 16
6 PM Sat 76 77 W 12 8006 7337 1437 Blue 10
7 PM Sat 71 71 W 12 6669 5945 45 Blue 4
8 PM Sat 67 67 W 10 5699 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 64 64 W 10 5057 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 62 62 W 10 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 61 61 W 8 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 60 60 W 8 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 59 59 W 8 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 57 57 NW 6 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 54 54 NW 6 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 53 53 NW 6 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 54 54 NW 5 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 58 58 NW 5 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 65 65 NW 5 5263 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 71 72 W 5 6907 6184 284 Blue 5
9 AM Sun 75 78 W 5 8223 7555 1655 Blue 11
10 AM Sun 78 83 W 5 9300 8633 2733 Blue 16
11 AM Sun 80 87 SW 6 10151 9485 3585 Blue 20
12 Noon Sun 81 89 SW 6 10589 9908 4008 Blue 22
1 PM Sun 82 91 SW 6 11036 10329 4429 Blue 24
2 PM Sun 82 90 W 7 10813 10119 4219 Blue 23
3 PM Sun 80 86 W 7 9939 9273 3373 Blue 19
4 PM Sun 76 80 W 7 8656 7988 2088 Blue 13
5 PM Sun 73 75 W 8 7570 6895 995 Blue 8
6 PM Sun 70 71 W 8 6669 5945 45 Blue 4
7 PM Sun 68 68 W 8 5950 5900 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 66 66 W 8 5470 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 64 64 W 8 5057 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 62 62 W 8 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 61 61 W 6 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 60 60 W 6 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 58 58 W 6 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 57 57 NW 5 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 54 54 NW 5 4921 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 53 53 NW 5 4921 5900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst