Detailed Predictions for: Thomas Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 4550
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

24 APR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 57 57 N 5 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 60 60 N 5 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 64 64 NW 5 7202 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 69 70 NW 3 11285 9633 3733 Blue 5
9 AM Wed 73 76 NW 3 12748 12098 6198 Blue 10
10 AM Wed 76 81 NW 3 15345 13487 7587 Blue 15
11 AM Wed 78 84 NW 5 16668 15167 9267 Blue 18
12 Noon Wed 80 87 NW 6 18671 16555 10655 White 21
1 PM Wed 79 86 NW 7 17647 16260 10360 Blue 20
2 PM Wed 80 85 NW 10 16962 15963 10063 Blue 19
3 PM Wed 79 83 NW 10 16371 14628 8728 Blue 17
4 PM Wed 78 80 NW 12 14801 12946 7046 Blue 14
5 PM Wed 75 76 W 14 12748 12098 6198 Blue 10
6 PM Wed 72 72 W 14 12024 11033 5133 Blue 6
7 PM Wed 67 67 NW 13 9715 7130 1230 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 64 64 NW 12 7202 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 63 63 NW 12 5808 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 63 63 NW 12 5808 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 63 63 NW 12 5808 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 63 63 NW 12 5808 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 63 63 NW 12 5808 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 62 62 NW 12 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 61 61 NW 12 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 60 60 NW 12 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 61 61 NW 10 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 63 63 NW 8 5808 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 67 67 NW 7 9715 7130 1230 Blue 2
8 AM Thu 72 73 NW 6 12119 11208 5308 Blue 7
9 AM Thu 75 78 NW 5 13650 12420 6520 Blue 12
10 AM Thu 78 83 W 5 16371 14628 8728 Blue 17
11 AM Thu 81 84 W 6 16668 15167 9267 Blue 18
12 Noon Thu 82 86 W 7 17647 16260 10360 Blue 20
1 PM Thu 81 85 W 8 16962 15963 10063 Blue 19
2 PM Thu 82 86 W 9 17647 16260 10360 Blue 20
3 PM Thu 81 84 W 10 16668 15167 9267 Blue 18
4 PM Thu 80 82 W 12 16071 14069 8169 Blue 16
5 PM Thu 77 78 W 13 13650 12420 6520 Blue 12
6 PM Thu 73 73 W 12 12119 11208 5308 Blue 7
7 PM Thu 68 68 NW 12 10266 8253 2353 Blue 3
8 PM Thu 65 65 NW 10 8354 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 63 63 NW 10 5808 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 63 63 NW 12 5808 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 63 63 NW 12 5808 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 63 63 NW 12 5808 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 62 62 NW 12 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 61 61 NW 12 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 59 59 NW 12 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 58 58 NW 12 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 58 58 NW 12 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 61 61 NW 10 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 65 65 NW 9 8354 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 70 71 NW 8 11759 10181 4281 Blue 5
9 AM Fri 73 76 NW 8 12748 12098 6198 Blue 10
10 AM Fri 75 80 NW 9 14801 12946 7046 Blue 14
11 AM Fri 77 82 NW 9 16071 14069 8169 Blue 16
12 Noon Fri 78 84 NW 10 16668 15167 9267 Blue 18
1 PM Fri 77 83 W 12 16371 14628 8728 Blue 17
2 PM Fri 78 83 W 13 16371 14628 8728 Blue 17
3 PM Fri 77 81 W 14 15345 13487 7587 Blue 15
4 PM Fri 75 78 W 15 13650 12420 6520 Blue 12
5 PM Fri 72 73 W 15 12119 11208 5308 Blue 7
6 PM Fri 68 68 NW 15 10266 8253 2353 Blue 3
7 PM Fri 64 64 NW 15 7202 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 60 60 NW 15 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 58 58 NW 15 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 58 58 NW 16 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 58 58 NW 17 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 58 58 NW 17 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 57 57 NW 16 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 57 57 NW 16 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 56 56 NW 16 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 56 56 NW 16 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 57 57 NW 16 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 58 58 NW 16 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 60 60 NW 16 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 64 65 NW 13 8354 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 67 70 NW 13 11285 9633 3733 Blue 5
10 AM Sat 71 75 NW 13 12482 12003 6103 Blue 9
11 AM Sat 73 78 W 5 13650 12420 6520 Blue 12
12 Noon Sat 74 80 W 5 14801 12946 7046 Blue 14
1 PM Sat 74 80 W 5 14801 12946 7046 Blue 14
2 PM Sat 73 78 W 12 13650 12420 6520 Blue 12
3 PM Sat 73 77 W 12 13037 12193 6293 Blue 11
4 PM Sat 73 75 W 12 12482 12003 6103 Blue 9
5 PM Sat 72 73 W 13 12119 11208 5308 Blue 7
6 PM Sat 69 69 W 13 11066 9042 3142 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 66 66 W 13 9116 5900 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sat 63 63 W 12 5808 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 61 61 W 12 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 60 60 W 12 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 59 59 W 12 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 59 59 W 12 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 58 58 W 12 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 56 56 W 13 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 54 54 W 13 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 52 52 W 13 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 51 51 W 12 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 53 53 W 12 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 57 57 W 12 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 61 62 W 10 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 64 66 W 10 9116 5900 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 67 71 W 10 11759 10181 4281 Blue 5
11 AM Sun 69 73 W 12 12119 11208 5308 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 71 76 W 12 12748 12098 6198 Blue 10
1 PM Sun 73 78 W 12 13650 12420 6520 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 74 79 W 13 14237 12684 6784 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 73 77 W 13 13037 12193 6293 Blue 11
4 PM Sun 71 73 W 13 12119 11208 5308 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 68 69 W 14 11066 9042 3142 Blue 4
6 PM Sun 65 65 W 14 8354 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 62 62 W 14 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 60 60 W 13 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 58 58 W 13 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 58 58 W 13 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 58 58 W 12 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 57 57 W 12 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 56 56 W 12 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 54 54 W 14 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 52 52 W 14 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 49 49 W 14 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 47 47 W 14 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 47 47 W 14 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 47 47 W 14 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 59 59 W 13 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 54 55 W 13 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 46 48 W 13 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 55 58 W 16 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 55 58 W 16 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 55 58 W 16 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 54 57 W 20 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 52 54 W 20 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 50 51 W 20 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 47 47 W 18 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 46 46 W 18 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 45 45 W 18 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 44 44 W 13 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 42 42 W 13 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 41 41 W 13 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 40 40 W 17 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 41 41 W 17 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 42 42 W 17 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 43 43 W 17 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 42 42 W 17 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 42 42 W 17 4974 5900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst