Detailed Predictions for: Thomas Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 4550
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

24 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 47 47 W 3 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 50 50 W 3 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 55 55 W 3 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 61 62 W 1 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 67 69 SW 2 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 74 78 S 3 7820 6968 1068 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 79 85 S 7 12804 11568 5668 Blue 12
12 Noon Sat 82 89 S 7 13524 12940 7040 Blue 16
1 PM Sat 85 92 S 7 14061 13477 7577 Blue 19
2 PM Sat 87 94 S 7 14417 13833 7933 Blue 21
3 PM Sat 87 92 SW 6 14061 13477 7577 Blue 19
4 PM Sat 88 91 SW 5 13882 13298 7398 Blue 18
5 PM Sat 85 87 W 7 13165 12479 6579 Blue 14
6 PM Sat 79 79 NW 8 8112 7211 1311 Blue 6
7 PM Sat 71 71 NW 8 5603 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 65 65 NW 5 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 62 62 N 2 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 61 61 N 2 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 61 61 NE 1 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 60 60 NE 1 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 58 58 N 2 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 55 55 NE 2 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 53 53 NE 1 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 51 51 N 1 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 52 52 N 2 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 55 55 N 5 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 61 61 N 3 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 68 68 N 2 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 75 77 E 1 7525 6741 841 Blue 4
10 AM Sun 81 85 SE 3 12804 11568 5668 Blue 12
11 AM Sun 86 91 S 5 13882 13298 7398 Blue 18
12 Noon Sun 87 94 S 5 14417 13833 7933 Blue 21
1 PM Sun 88 95 S 2 14813 14010 8110 Blue 22
2 PM Sun 88 94 W 2 14417 13833 7933 Blue 21
3 PM Sun 89 94 W 6 14417 13833 7933 Blue 21
4 PM Sun 88 91 NW 5 13882 13298 7398 Blue 18
5 PM Sun 86 87 NW 12 13165 12479 6579 Blue 14
6 PM Sun 78 78 NW 12 7820 6968 1068 Blue 5
7 PM Sun 68 68 NW 12 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 60 60 NW 12 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 56 56 NW 12 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 56 56 NW 12 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 57 57 NW 12 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 57 57 NW 13 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 58 58 NW 13 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 56 56 NW 13 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 54 54 NW 13 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 52 52 NW 12 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 52 52 NW 8 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 56 56 N 7 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 61 61 N 5 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 68 68 E 6 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 74 75 SE 6 6980 6081 181 Blue 2
10 AM Mon 79 81 SE 6 11286 7797 1897 Blue 8
11 AM Mon 83 87 SE 7 13165 12479 6579 Blue 14
12 Noon Mon 87 91 SE 7 13882 13298 7398 Blue 18
1 PM Mon 90 95 SE 7 14813 14010 8110 Blue 22
2 PM Mon 91 95 SW 3 14813 14010 8110 Blue 22
3 PM Mon 91 94 W 9 14417 13833 7933 Blue 21
4 PM Mon 88 90 NW 12 13703 13119 7219 Blue 17
5 PM Mon 82 83 NW 13 12000 10337 4437 Blue 10
6 PM Mon 75 75 NW 13 6980 6081 181 Blue 2
7 PM Mon 66 66 NW 12 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 60 60 NW 9 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 57 57 NW 9 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 56 56 NW 9 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 56 56 NW 9 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 56 56 NW 10 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 56 56 NW 10 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 55 55 NW 10 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 53 53 NW 9 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 52 52 N 6 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 53 53 NW 3 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 58 58 NW 3 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 65 65 NW 3 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 71 71 SW 3 5603 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 77 79 SW 3 8112 7211 1311 Blue 6
10 AM Tue 81 84 SW 3 12619 11220 5320 Blue 11
11 AM Tue 84 90 SW 8 13703 13119 7219 Blue 17
12 Noon Tue 88 95 SW 8 14813 14010 8110 Blue 22
1 PM Tue 90 97 SW 8 16121 14365 8465 Blue 24
2 PM Tue 91 98 SW 9 16728 14601 8701 Blue 25
3 PM Tue 92 97 SW 9 16121 14365 8465 Blue 24
4 PM Tue 89 93 SW 9 14239 13655 7755 Blue 20
5 PM Tue 85 87 W 9 13165 12479 6579 Blue 14
6 PM Tue 79 79 W 9 8112 7211 1311 Blue 6
7 PM Tue 72 72 W 9 6093 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 68 68 W 6 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 65 65 W 6 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 65 65 W 6 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 64 64 W 5 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 62 62 W 5 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 60 60 W 5 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 57 57 W 3 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 54 54 W 3 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 53 53 W 3 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 54 54 SW 3 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 59 59 SW 3 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 66 66 SW 3 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 73 74 SW 3 6751 5900 0 Blue 1
9 AM Wed 79 81 SW 3 11286 7797 1897 Blue 8
10 AM Wed 84 88 SW 3 13344 12760 6860 Blue 15
11 AM Wed 88 94 SW 8 14417 13833 7933 Blue 21
12 Noon Wed 91 98 SW 8 16728 14601 8701 Blue 25
1 PM Wed 91 98 SW 8 16728 14601 8701 Blue 25
2 PM Wed 92 99 W 10 17175 15269 9369 Blue 26
3 PM Wed 90 95 W 10 14813 14010 8110 Blue 22
4 PM Wed 87 91 W 10 13882 13298 7398 Blue 18
5 PM Wed 83 85 SW 10 12804 11568 5668 Blue 12
6 PM Wed 77 77 SW 10 7525 6741 841 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 72 72 SW 10 6093 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 67 67 W 7 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 64 64 W 7 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 62 62 W 7 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 61 61 W 3 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 60 60 W 3 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 58 58 W 3 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 55 W 3 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 53 53 W 3 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 51 51 W 3 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 52 52 W 3 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 55 55 W 3 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 61 61 W 3 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 68 69 W 3 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 75 77 W 3 7525 6741 841 Blue 4
10 AM Thu 80 84 W 3 12619 11220 5320 Blue 11
11 AM Thu 85 91 S 7 13882 13298 7398 Blue 18
12 Noon Thu 88 95 S 7 14813 14010 8110 Blue 22
1 PM Thu 89 96 S 7 15484 14188 8288 Blue 23
2 PM Thu 89 96 SW 9 15484 14188 8288 Blue 23
3 PM Thu 90 95 SW 9 14813 14010 8110 Blue 22
4 PM Thu 88 91 SW 9 13882 13298 7398 Blue 18
5 PM Thu 83 85 W 10 12804 11568 5668 Blue 12
6 PM Thu 76 76 W 10 7229 6512 612 Blue 3
7 PM Thu 68 68 W 10 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 61 61 W 6 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 59 59 W 6 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 59 59 W 6 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 59 59 W 3 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 59 59 W 3 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 58 58 W 3 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 56 56 W 3 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 54 54 W 3 4977 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 52 52 W 3 4977 5900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst