Detailed Predictions for: Thomas Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 4550
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

16 FEB 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sat 28 28 W 24 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 29 29 W 22 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 29 29 W 21 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 30 30 W 20 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 32 32 W 17 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 35 36 W 16 7268 5918 18 Blue 3
10 AM Sat 38 39 W 17 7817 7244 1344 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 40 42 W 20 9050 7782 1882 Blue 9
12 Noon Sat 42 44 W 21 9674 8679 2779 Blue 11
1 PM Sat 42 44 W 22 9674 8679 2779 Blue 11
2 PM Sat 42 43 W 23 9379 8378 2478 Blue 10
3 PM Sat 41 42 W 22 9050 7782 1882 Blue 9
4 PM Sat 38 38 W 23 7545 7027 1127 Blue 5
5 PM Sat 37 37 W 21 7419 6780 880 Blue 4
6 PM Sat 34 34 W 22 6792 5900 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sat 32 32 W 20 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 32 32 W 16 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 31 31 W 17 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 31 31 W 20 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 30 30 W 17 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 30 30 W 18 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 29 29 W 21 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 30 30 W 23 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 29 29 W 25 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 28 28 W 23 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 29 29 W 22 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 29 29 W 22 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 30 30 W 22 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 32 32 W 21 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 34 34 W 20 6792 5900 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 36 36 W 18 7268 5918 18 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 38 38 SW 16 7545 7027 1127 Blue 5
12 Noon Sun 39 39 SW 28 7817 7244 1344 Blue 6
1 PM Sun 39 39 W 33 7817 7244 1344 Blue 6
2 PM Sun 39 39 W 26 7817 7244 1344 Blue 6
3 PM Sun 38 38 W 25 7545 7027 1127 Blue 5
4 PM Sun 35 35 W 29 7038 5900 0 Blue 2
5 PM Sun 34 34 W 28 6792 5900 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sun 31 31 W 28 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 28 28 W 26 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 28 28 W 25 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 27 27 W 24 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 27 27 W 23 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 26 26 W 21 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 26 26 W 17 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 25 25 W 16 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 25 25 W 15 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 25 25 NW 15 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 24 24 NW 10 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 25 25 NW 10 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 25 25 NW 10 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 26 26 NW 6 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 28 28 NW 6 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 31 32 NW 6 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 34 36 W 7 7268 5918 18 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 36 38 W 7 7545 7027 1127 Blue 5
12 Noon Mon 38 40 W 7 8409 7411 1511 Blue 7
1 PM Mon 38 40 W 9 8409 7411 1511 Blue 7
2 PM Mon 38 39 W 9 7817 7244 1344 Blue 6
3 PM Mon 37 38 W 9 7545 7027 1127 Blue 5
4 PM Mon 35 35 N 9 7038 5900 0 Blue 2
5 PM Mon 34 34 N 9 6792 5900 0 Blue 1
6 PM Mon 31 31 N 9 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 30 30 NW 8 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 29 29 NW 8 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 29 29 NW 8 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 28 28 N 9 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 28 28 N 9 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 27 27 N 9 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 27 27 NW 9 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 27 27 NW 9 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 26 26 NW 9 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 26 26 N 8 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 27 27 N 8 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 27 27 N 8 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 28 28 N 6 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 30 30 N 6 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 33 35 N 6 7038 5900 0 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 36 39 NW 5 7817 7244 1344 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 38 42 NW 5 9050 7782 1882 Blue 9
12 Noon Tue 40 44 NW 5 9674 8679 2779 Blue 11
1 PM Tue 40 44 W 10 9674 8679 2779 Blue 11
2 PM Tue 40 43 W 10 9379 8378 2478 Blue 10
3 PM Tue 39 40 W 10 8409 7411 1511 Blue 7
4 PM Tue 36 36 W 12 7268 5918 18 Blue 3
5 PM Tue 35 35 W 12 7038 5900 0 Blue 2
6 PM Tue 32 32 W 12 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 30 30 NW 9 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 30 30 NW 9 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 29 29 NW 9 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 29 29 N 3 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 28 28 N 3 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 27 27 N 3 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 27 27 NE 7 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 27 27 NE 7 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 27 27 NE 7 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 26 26 NE 5 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 27 27 NE 5 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 27 27 NE 5 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 28 28 S 5 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 31 31 S 5 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 34 35 S 5 7038 5900 0 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 38 40 SW 6 8409 7411 1511 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 40 43 SW 6 9379 8378 2478 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 42 45 SW 6 9865 9009 3109 Blue 12
1 PM Wed 42 45 W 9 9865 9009 3109 Blue 12
2 PM Wed 42 44 W 9 9674 8679 2779 Blue 11
3 PM Wed 41 42 W 9 9050 7782 1882 Blue 9
4 PM Wed 38 38 NW 10 7545 7027 1127 Blue 5
5 PM Wed 37 37 NW 10 7419 6780 880 Blue 4
6 PM Wed 34 34 NW 10 6792 5900 0 Blue 1
7 PM Wed 32 32 W 13 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 32 32 W 13 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 31 31 W 13 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 31 31 NW 12 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 30 30 NW 12 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 29 29 NW 12 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 29 29 NW 13 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 29 29 NW 13 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 29 29 NW 13 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 28 28 W 10 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 29 29 W 10 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 29 29 W 10 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 29 29 W 10 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 32 32 W 10 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 34 34 W 10 6792 5900 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 36 36 N 5 7268 5918 18 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 38 38 N 5 7545 7027 1127 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 39 39 N 5 7817 7244 1344 Blue 6
1 PM Thu 39 39 NE 15 7817 7244 1344 Blue 6
2 PM Thu 39 39 NE 15 7817 7244 1344 Blue 6
3 PM Thu 38 38 NE 15 7545 7027 1127 Blue 5
4 PM Thu 36 36 NE 17 7268 5918 18 Blue 3
5 PM Thu 35 35 NE 17 7038 5900 0 Blue 2
6 PM Thu 32 32 NE 17 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 31 31 NE 18 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 30 30 NE 18 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 30 30 NE 18 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 29 29 NE 18 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 28 28 NE 18 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 28 28 NE 18 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 28 28 NE 18 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 28 28 NE 18 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 28 28 NE 18 5184 5900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst