Detailed Predictions for: Thomas Mt
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.5999, -116.65385, 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 4550
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

27 FEB 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 45 45 W 4 10 4879 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 43 43 W 5 11 4879 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 41 41 W 6 13 4879 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 40 40 W 6 12 4879 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 40 40 W 5 12 4879 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 39 39 W 5 11 4879 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 39 39 W 4 8 4879 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 40 40 WSW 2 6 4879 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 40 41 WSW 1 3 4879 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 45 47 WSW 2 3 4879 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 49 53 W 2 3 6730 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 54 59 W 3 4 11345 8882 2982 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 55 60 W 4 5 12007 9772 3872 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 56 60 W 5 6 12007 9772 3872 Blue 6
2 PM Sat 57 60 WNW 6 7 12007 9772 3872 Blue 6
3 PM Sat 57 59 WNW 6 7 11345 8882 2982 Blue 5
4 PM Sat 57 57 WNW 6 8 9882 7043 1143 Blue 3
5 PM Sat 56 56 WNW 7 8 8975 6721 821 Blue 2
6 PM Sat 54 54 SSW 5 6 7055 6068 168 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 53 53 ESE 3 5 6730 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 51 51 N 1 3 6071 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 48 48 NNE 4 8 5059 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 45 45 NE 7 13 4879 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 42 42 ENE 10 18 4879 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 40 40 ENE 10 19 4879 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 39 39 E 10 19 4879 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 37 37 E 10 20 4879 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 37 37 E 10 21 4879 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 36 36 E 10 21 4879 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 36 36 E 11 22 4879 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 35 35 E 11 22 4879 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 35 35 E 12 22 4879 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 35 36 E 12 22 4879 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 38 40 E 13 19 4879 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 41 45 E 13 17 4879 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 44 49 E 13 15 5399 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 46 51 E 13 15 6071 5900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 48 52 E 12 14 6402 5900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 49 52 E 11 13 6402 5900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 49 51 E 11 12 6071 5900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 49 49 E 10 11 5399 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 49 49 E 9 10 5399 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 48 48 E 9 13 5059 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 47 47 E 9 15 4879 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 46 46 E 9 17 4879 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 43 43 E 9 18 4879 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 41 41 E 9 19 4879 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 39 39 E 9 20 4879 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 38 38 E 9 19 4879 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 38 38 E 9 19 4879 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 37 37 E 9 19 4879 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 37 37 E 9 19 4879 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 37 37 E 9 19 4879 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 36 36 E 9 20 4879 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 37 37 E 9 20 4879 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 38 38 E 10 20 4879 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 38 39 E 10 21 4879 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 42 44 E 11 18 4879 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 46 50 E 11 16 5737 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 50 55 E 12 13 7964 6396 496 Blue 1
12 Noon Mon 52 57 E 11 13 9882 7043 1143 Blue 3
1 PM Mon 53 57 E 10 12 9882 7043 1143 Blue 3
2 PM Mon 55 58 ESE 9 11 10646 7893 1993 Blue 4
3 PM Mon 54 56 ESE 8 10 8975 6721 821 Blue 2
4 PM Mon 54 54 ESE 8 9 7055 6068 168 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 54 54 ESE 7 8 7055 6068 168 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 52 52 E 7 10 6402 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 51 51 E 6 12 6071 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 50 50 E 6 14 5737 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 48 48 E 6 13 5059 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 46 46 E 6 13 4879 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 45 45 E 6 13 4879 5900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst