Detailed Predictions for: Thomas Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 4550
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

16 OCT 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 42 42 NE 33 4964 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 42 42 NE 33 4964 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 41 41 NE 32 4964 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 41 41 NE 33 4964 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 42 43 NE 33 4964 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 45 47 NE 32 4964 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 47 50 NE 28 4964 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 50 54 NE 25 8106 5900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 53 57 NE 26 8901 8082 2182 Blue 3
2 PM Tue 55 59 NE 22 9423 8609 2709 Blue 5
3 PM Tue 56 59 NE 20 9423 8609 2709 Blue 5
4 PM Tue 56 57 NE 20 8901 8082 2182 Blue 3
5 PM Tue 57 57 NE 17 8901 8082 2182 Blue 3
6 PM Tue 56 56 NE 17 8637 7454 1554 Blue 2
7 PM Tue 54 54 NE 16 8106 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 53 53 NE 16 7518 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 52 52 NE 16 6555 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 51 51 NE 18 5465 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 50 50 NE 20 4964 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 48 48 NE 18 4964 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 47 47 NE 18 4964 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 46 46 NE 20 4964 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 45 45 NE 18 4964 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 44 44 NE 18 4964 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 44 44 NE 17 4964 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 44 44 NE 17 4964 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 44 44 NE 17 4964 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 45 45 NE 18 4964 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 47 48 NE 18 4964 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 50 52 NE 18 6555 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 52 55 NE 18 8372 6515 615 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 55 59 NE 18 9423 8609 2709 Blue 5
1 PM Wed 58 62 NE 18 10187 9388 3488 Blue 8
2 PM Wed 58 62 NE 17 10187 9388 3488 Blue 8
3 PM Wed 59 61 NE 16 9940 9130 3230 Blue 7
4 PM Wed 58 59 NE 16 9423 8609 2709 Blue 5
5 PM Wed 58 58 NE 16 9163 8346 2446 Blue 4
6 PM Wed 58 58 NE 14 9163 8346 2446 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 59 59 NE 14 9423 8609 2709 Blue 5
8 PM Wed 59 59 NE 15 9423 8609 2709 Blue 5
9 PM Wed 57 57 NE 14 8901 8082 2182 Blue 3
10 PM Wed 55 55 NE 14 8372 6515 615 Blue 1
11 PM Wed 52 52 NE 15 6555 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 51 51 NE 15 5465 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 51 51 NE 15 5465 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 50 50 NE 14 4964 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 50 50 NE 15 4964 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 49 49 NE 15 4964 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 48 48 NE 14 4964 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 47 47 NE 16 4964 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 46 46 NE 16 4964 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 46 46 NE 18 4964 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 48 49 NE 18 4964 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 51 53 NE 18 7518 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 54 57 NE 17 8901 8082 2182 Blue 3
12 Noon Thu 57 61 NE 17 9940 9130 3230 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 59 63 NE 17 10365 9646 3746 Blue 9
2 PM Thu 61 65 NE 18 10720 10155 4255 Blue 11
3 PM Thu 62 65 NE 18 10720 10155 4255 Blue 11
4 PM Thu 61 62 NE 18 10187 9388 3488 Blue 8
5 PM Thu 62 62 NE 17 10187 9388 3488 Blue 8
6 PM Thu 61 61 NE 17 9940 9130 3230 Blue 7
7 PM Thu 60 60 NE 17 9682 8870 2970 Blue 6
8 PM Thu 58 58 NE 17 9163 8346 2446 Blue 4
9 PM Thu 55 55 NE 18 8372 6515 615 Blue 1
10 PM Thu 53 53 NE 21 7518 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 51 51 NE 22 5465 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 51 51 NE 23 5465 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 52 52 NE 22 6555 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 52 52 NE 22 6555 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 50 50 NE 23 4964 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 49 49 NE 23 4964 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 48 48 NE 23 4964 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 48 48 NE 23 4964 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 50 50 NE 23 4964 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 51 51 NE 21 5465 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 53 54 NE 21 8106 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 55 57 NE 21 8901 8082 2182 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 57 60 NE 21 9682 8870 2970 Blue 6
12 Noon Fri 60 64 NE 21 10542 9901 4001 Blue 10
1 PM Fri 62 66 NE 21 11145 10335 4435 Blue 12
2 PM Fri 64 68 NE 22 12194 10688 4788 Blue 14
3 PM Fri 66 69 NE 22 12418 11010 5110 Blue 15
4 PM Fri 67 68 NE 22 12194 10688 4788 Blue 14
5 PM Fri 67 67 NE 18 11839 10512 4612 Blue 13
6 PM Fri 67 67 NE 18 11839 10512 4612 Blue 13
7 PM Fri 66 66 NE 18 11145 10335 4435 Blue 12
8 PM Fri 65 65 NE 17 10720 10155 4255 Blue 11
9 PM Fri 63 63 NE 17 10365 9646 3746 Blue 9
10 PM Fri 60 60 NE 17 9682 8870 2970 Blue 6
11 PM Fri 59 59 NE 18 9423 8609 2709 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sat 57 57 NE 18 8901 8082 2182 Blue 3
1 AM Sat 57 57 NE 18 8901 8082 2182 Blue 3
2 AM Sat 56 56 NE 18 8637 7454 1554 Blue 2
3 AM Sat 54 54 NE 18 8106 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 53 53 NE 18 7518 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 51 51 NE 18 5465 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 50 50 NE 18 4964 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 49 49 NE 18 4964 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 50 50 NE 18 4964 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 53 54 NE 18 8106 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 56 58 NE 18 9163 8346 2446 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 60 62 NE 16 10187 9388 3488 Blue 8
12 Noon Sat 62 65 NE 16 10720 10155 4255 Blue 11
1 PM Sat 64 67 NE 16 11839 10512 4612 Blue 13
2 PM Sat 65 68 NE 16 12194 10688 4788 Blue 14
3 PM Sat 66 68 NE 16 12194 10688 4788 Blue 14
4 PM Sat 67 68 NE 16 12194 10688 4788 Blue 14
5 PM Sat 67 67 NE 15 11839 10512 4612 Blue 13
6 PM Sat 67 67 NE 15 11839 10512 4612 Blue 13
7 PM Sat 66 66 NE 15 11145 10335 4435 Blue 12
8 PM Sat 65 65 NE 17 10720 10155 4255 Blue 11
9 PM Sat 65 65 NE 17 10720 10155 4255 Blue 11
10 PM Sat 64 64 NE 17 10542 9901 4001 Blue 10
11 PM Sat 64 64 NE 10 10542 9901 4001 Blue 10
12 Midnight Sun 63 63 NE 10 10365 9646 3746 Blue 9
1 AM Sun 62 62 NE 10 10187 9388 3488 Blue 8
2 AM Sun 60 60 NE 16 9682 8870 2970 Blue 6
3 AM Sun 57 57 NE 16 8901 8082 2182 Blue 3
4 AM Sun 53 53 NE 16 7518 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 50 50 NE 15 4964 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 49 49 NE 15 4964 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 49 49 NE 15 4964 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 51 51 NE 16 5465 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 53 53 NE 16 7518 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 55 56 NE 16 8637 7454 1554 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 58 60 NE 13 9682 8870 2970 Blue 6
12 Noon Sun 61 63 NE 13 10365 9646 3746 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 63 65 NE 13 10720 10155 4255 Blue 11
2 PM Sun 65 67 NE 13 11839 10512 4612 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 66 67 NE 13 11839 10512 4612 Blue 13
4 PM Sun 66 67 NE 13 11839 10512 4612 Blue 13
5 PM Sun 65 65 NE 10 10720 10155 4255 Blue 11
6 PM Sun 64 64 NE 10 10542 9901 4001 Blue 10
7 PM Sun 63 63 NE 10 10365 9646 3746 Blue 9
8 PM Sun 61 61 NE 9 9940 9130 3230 Blue 7
9 PM Sun 58 58 NE 9 9163 8346 2446 Blue 4
10 PM Sun 55 55 NE 9 8372 6515 615 Blue 1
11 PM Sun 54 54 NE 9 8106 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 56 56 NE 9 8637 7454 1554 Blue 2
1 AM Mon 58 58 NE 9 9163 8346 2446 Blue 4
2 AM Mon 59 59 NE 12 9423 8609 2709 Blue 5
3 AM Mon 57 57 NE 12 8901 8082 2182 Blue 3
4 AM Mon 54 54 NE 12 8106 5900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst