Detailed Predictions for: Thomas Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 4550
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 AUG 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 65 65 N 6 5115 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 65 65 N 5 5115 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 67 67 N 3 5115 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 70 71 E 1 5115 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 76 78 E 1 8594 7256 1356 Blue 4
10 AM Sat 80 84 S 1 11704 9274 3374 Blue 10
11 AM Sat 83 87 SW 2 13279 11586 5686 White 13
12 Noon Sat 84 88 W 3 13493 12156 6256 White 14
1 PM Sat 86 91 W 5 14127 13723 7823 White 17
2 PM Sat 86 90 NW 10 13917 13239 7339 White 16
3 PM Sat 85 88 W 10 13493 12156 6256 White 14
4 PM Sat 84 86 W 10 13065 10993 5093 White 12
5 PM Sat 83 85 W 14 12281 10581 4681 Blue 11
6 PM Sat 81 81 W 14 10105 8552 2652 Blue 7
7 PM Sat 78 78 NW 13 8594 7256 1356 Blue 4
8 PM Sat 74 74 NW 12 6091 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 72 72 NW 12 5320 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 71 71 NW 12 5115 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 70 70 NW 13 5115 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 69 69 NW 13 5115 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 69 69 NW 13 5115 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 68 68 NW 10 5115 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 68 68 NW 8 5115 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 67 67 N 6 5115 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 66 66 NE 3 5115 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 66 66 E 3 5115 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 68 68 E 3 5115 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 72 73 E 5 5583 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 79 81 E 5 10105 8552 2652 Blue 7
10 AM Sun 84 88 E 5 13493 12156 6256 White 14
11 AM Sun 87 91 SE 6 14127 13723 7823 White 17
12 Noon Sun 89 94 SE 5 14754 14567 8667 White 20
1 PM Sun 90 96 S 1 15171 15045 9145 White 22
2 PM Sun 90 95 W 8 14963 14807 8907 White 21
3 PM Sun 90 94 W 8 14754 14567 8667 White 20
4 PM Sun 89 92 W 8 14337 14033 8133 White 18
5 PM Sun 87 89 W 12 13705 12707 6807 White 15
6 PM Sun 85 85 W 12 12281 10581 4681 Blue 11
7 PM Sun 81 81 NW 10 10105 8552 2652 Blue 7
8 PM Sun 77 77 NW 9 8183 6059 159 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 74 74 NW 9 6091 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 72 72 NW 9 5320 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 71 71 NW 9 5115 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 71 71 NW 9 5115 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 70 70 NW 9 5115 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 69 69 NW 8 5115 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 69 69 NW 8 5115 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 68 68 NW 7 5115 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 67 67 NW 5 5115 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 67 67 NW 3 5115 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 69 69 NW 2 5115 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 72 73 SE 2 5583 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 78 80 S 5 9076 8146 2246 Blue 6
10 AM Mon 82 86 S 6 13065 10993 5093 White 12
11 AM Mon 85 89 S 9 13705 12707 6807 White 15
12 Noon Mon 86 91 S 7 14127 13723 7823 White 17
1 PM Mon 88 94 SW 5 14754 14567 8667 White 20
2 PM Mon 88 93 W 8 14546 14327 8427 White 19
3 PM Mon 87 91 W 8 14127 13723 7823 White 17
4 PM Mon 86 89 W 10 13705 12707 6807 White 15
5 PM Mon 84 85 W 12 12281 10581 4681 Blue 11
6 PM Mon 83 83 W 13 11104 9049 3149 Blue 9
7 PM Mon 78 78 W 13 8594 7256 1356 Blue 4
8 PM Mon 75 75 W 10 7325 5900 0 Blue 1
9 PM Mon 72 72 W 10 5320 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 70 70 W 10 5115 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 69 69 W 8 5115 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 69 69 W 8 5115 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 68 68 W 8 5115 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 67 67 W 7 5115 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 67 67 W 7 5115 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 66 66 W 7 5115 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 65 65 W 3 5115 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 65 65 W 3 5115 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 67 67 W 3 5115 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 71 71 E 7 5115 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 78 80 E 7 9076 8146 2246 Blue 6
10 AM Tue 82 85 E 7 12281 10581 4681 Blue 11
11 AM Tue 85 89 SE 14 13705 12707 6807 White 15
12 Noon Tue 86 90 SE 14 13917 13239 7339 White 16
1 PM Tue 88 93 SE 14 14546 14327 8427 White 19
2 PM Tue 88 92 W 8 14337 14033 8133 White 18
3 PM Tue 88 91 W 8 14127 13723 7823 White 17
4 PM Tue 86 88 W 8 13493 12156 6256 White 14
5 PM Tue 84 85 W 10 12281 10581 4681 Blue 11
6 PM Tue 83 83 W 10 11104 9049 3149 Blue 9
7 PM Tue 79 79 W 10 8849 7734 1834 Blue 5
8 PM Tue 76 76 NW 12 7766 5900 0 Blue 2
9 PM Tue 73 73 NW 12 5583 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 72 72 NW 12 5320 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 70 70 W 5 5115 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 70 70 W 5 5115 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 70 70 W 5 5115 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 68 68 SE 3 5115 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 68 68 SE 3 5115 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 68 68 SE 3 5115 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 67 67 SE 5 5115 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 67 67 SE 5 5115 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 68 68 SE 5 5115 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 72 72 S 2 5320 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 78 80 S 2 9076 8146 2246 Blue 6
10 AM Wed 82 85 S 2 12281 10581 4681 Blue 11
11 AM Wed 85 87 S 12 13279 11586 5686 White 13
12 Noon Wed 86 89 S 12 13705 12707 6807 White 15
1 PM Wed 87 90 S 12 13917 13239 7339 White 16
2 PM Wed 87 90 NW 3 13917 13239 7339 White 16
3 PM Wed 88 90 NW 3 13917 13239 7339 White 16
4 PM Wed 86 87 NW 3 13279 11586 5686 White 13
5 PM Wed 84 85 SE 3 12281 10581 4681 Blue 11
6 PM Wed 82 82 SE 3 10640 8823 2923 Blue 8
7 PM Wed 78 78 SE 3 8594 7256 1356 Blue 4
8 PM Wed 75 75 NW 10 7325 5900 0 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 72 72 NW 10 5320 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 71 71 NW 10 5115 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 69 69 NW 12 5115 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 69 69 NW 12 5115 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 69 69 NW 12 5115 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 68 68 NW 10 5115 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 67 67 NW 10 5115 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 67 67 NW 10 5115 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 66 66 N 8 5115 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 66 66 N 8 5115 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 67 67 N 8 5115 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 71 71 E 10 5115 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 77 79 E 10 8849 7734 1834 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 80 83 E 10 11104 9049 3149 Blue 9
11 AM Thu 83 86 E 10 13065 10993 5093 White 12
12 Noon Thu 84 88 E 10 13493 12156 6256 White 14
1 PM Thu 86 90 E 10 13917 13239 7339 White 16
2 PM Thu 86 90 W 10 13917 13239 7339 White 16
3 PM Thu 86 89 W 10 13705 12707 6807 White 15
4 PM Thu 84 86 W 10 13065 10993 5093 White 12
5 PM Thu 82 83 W 15 11104 9049 3149 Blue 9
6 PM Thu 81 81 W 15 10105 8552 2652 Blue 7
7 PM Thu 77 77 W 15 8183 6059 159 Blue 3
8 PM Thu 74 74 W 15 6091 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 71 71 W 15 5115 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 70 70 W 15 5115 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 68 68 NW 12 5115 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 68 68 NW 12 5115 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 68 68 NW 12 5115 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 66 66 NW 12 5115 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 66 66 NW 12 5115 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 66 66 NW 12 5115 5900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst