Detailed Predictions for: Thomas Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 4550
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

25 NOV 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 30 30 NW 2 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 30 30 NW 2 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 31 31 NW 2 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 34 34 SW 2 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 40 40 SW 2 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 47 48 SW 2 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 53 55 SW 6 7376 6033 133 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 56 59 SW 7 8313 7545 1645 Blue 6
12 Noon Wed 56 59 SW 8 8313 7545 1645 Blue 6
1 PM Wed 56 58 W 9 8023 7364 1464 Blue 5
2 PM Wed 54 55 W 9 7376 6033 133 Blue 2
3 PM Wed 51 51 W 9 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 48 48 NW 9 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 45 45 NW 9 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 42 42 NW 9 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 39 39 NW 9 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 38 38 NW 9 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 36 36 NW 8 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 36 36 NW 8 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 35 35 NW 9 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 35 35 NW 10 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 35 35 NW 10 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 35 35 NW 9 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 34 34 NW 8 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 32 32 NW 7 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 30 30 N 7 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 28 28 N 6 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 29 29 N 7 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 34 34 N 8 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 41 42 NE 10 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 46 48 NE 13 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 47 49 NE 15 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 47 50 NE 17 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 44 46 NE 18 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 42 43 NE 21 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 39 39 NE 22 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 37 37 NE 22 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 36 36 NE 22 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 34 34 NE 21 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 33 33 N 22 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 31 31 NE 23 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 28 28 NE 25 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 26 26 NE 26 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 25 25 NE 28 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 25 25 NE 28 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 25 25 NE 28 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 25 25 NE 25 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 25 25 NE 24 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 25 25 NE 22 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 25 25 NE 22 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 26 26 NE 23 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 28 28 NE 24 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 32 32 NE 24 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 36 37 NE 25 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 41 43 NE 24 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 46 49 NE 22 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 51 54 NE 18 7194 5900 0 Blue 1
1 PM Fri 52 54 NE 15 7194 5900 0 Blue 1
2 PM Fri 53 54 NE 15 7194 5900 0 Blue 1
3 PM Fri 50 50 NE 15 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 47 47 NE 15 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 45 45 NE 14 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 42 42 NE 12 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 39 39 NE 10 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 34 34 NE 9 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 29 29 NE 8 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 27 27 NE 8 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 29 29 NE 9 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 33 33 NE 10 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 37 37 NE 12 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 38 38 E 13 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 37 37 E 13 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 36 36 E 13 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 35 35 E 13 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 35 35 E 13 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 37 37 E 10 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 41 41 E 10 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 46 47 E 10 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 50 52 E 12 6064 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 54 56 E 12 7559 7001 1101 Blue 3
12 Noon Sat 56 59 E 12 8313 7545 1645 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 57 59 E 10 8313 7545 1645 Blue 6
2 PM Sat 57 58 E 10 8023 7364 1464 Blue 5
3 PM Sat 57 57 E 10 7741 7183 1283 Blue 4
4 PM Sat 54 54 NE 8 7194 5900 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sat 49 49 NE 8 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 43 43 NE 8 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 37 37 NE 7 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 32 32 NE 7 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 29 29 NE 7 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 27 27 NE 8 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 26 26 NE 8 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 26 26 NE 8 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 27 27 E 7 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 29 29 E 7 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 31 31 E 7 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 33 33 NE 10 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 34 34 NE 10 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 34 34 NE 10 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 36 36 NE 8 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 41 41 NE 8 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 46 47 NE 8 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 52 54 NE 8 7194 5900 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 57 59 NE 8 8313 7545 1645 Blue 6
12 Noon Sun 60 62 NE 8 9172 8285 2385 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 62 64 NE 6 9735 8854 2954 Blue 11
2 PM Sun 62 63 NE 6 9454 8571 2671 Blue 10
3 PM Sun 61 61 NE 6 8887 7998 2098 Blue 8
4 PM Sun 57 57 NE 3 7741 7183 1283 Blue 4
5 PM Sun 50 50 NE 3 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 41 41 NE 3 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 34 34 NE 5 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 31 31 NE 5 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 30 30 NE 5 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 30 30 NE 6 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 29 29 NE 6 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 28 28 NE 6 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 28 28 NE 7 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 29 29 NE 7 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 31 31 NE 7 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 34 34 NE 8 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 37 37 NE 8 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 40 40 NE 8 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 43 43 E 6 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 47 47 E 6 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 50 50 E 6 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 54 55 E 7 7376 6033 133 Blue 2
11 AM Mon 58 59 E 7 8313 7545 1645 Blue 6
12 Noon Mon 61 62 E 7 9172 8285 2385 Blue 9
1 PM Mon 61 62 S 6 9172 8285 2385 Blue 9
2 PM Mon 61 62 S 6 9172 8285 2385 Blue 9
3 PM Mon 59 59 S 6 8313 7545 1645 Blue 6
4 PM Mon 55 55 W 7 7376 6033 133 Blue 2
5 PM Mon 50 50 W 7 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 44 44 W 7 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 39 39 W 5 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 36 36 W 5 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 35 35 W 5 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 35 35 W 5 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 34 34 W 5 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 34 34 W 5 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 33 33 W 6 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 32 32 W 6 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 30 30 W 6 4947 5900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst