Detailed Predictions for: Thomas Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 4550
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

23 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 39 39 NW 9 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 38 38 NW 8 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 38 38 NW 7 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 41 41 NE 3 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 50 51 NE 2 5825 5900 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 54 56 NE 2 7790 6612 712 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 57 61 NW 2 9652 8623 2723 Blue 11
12 Noon Sat 59 64 W 3 10370 9617 3717 Blue 14
1 PM Sat 59 64 W 3 10370 9617 3717 Blue 14
2 PM Sat 60 64 W 10 10370 9617 3717 Blue 14
3 PM Sat 60 63 W 10 10138 9371 3471 Blue 13
4 PM Sat 59 61 W 12 9652 8623 2723 Blue 11
5 PM Sat 58 58 W 12 8718 7382 1482 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 55 55 W 12 7408 6218 318 Blue 5
7 PM Sat 53 53 NW 12 6628 5900 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sat 50 50 NW 12 5415 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 48 48 NW 10 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 47 47 N 10 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 46 46 N 9 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 45 45 NE 12 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 45 45 NE 12 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 45 45 NE 16 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 44 44 NE 16 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 43 43 NE 16 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 43 43 NE 17 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 42 42 NE 16 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 42 42 NE 16 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 46 46 NE 16 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 54 56 NE 15 7790 6612 712 Blue 6
10 AM Sun 59 62 NE 13 9900 9124 3224 Blue 12
11 AM Sun 62 67 NE 5 11166 10332 4432 Blue 17
12 Noon Sun 64 70 NE 5 12497 11113 5213 Blue 20
1 PM Sun 64 70 NE 3 12497 11113 5213 Blue 20
2 PM Sun 65 70 SE 2 12497 11113 5213 Blue 20
3 PM Sun 65 69 S 1 11717 10837 4937 Blue 19
4 PM Sun 64 66 SE 1 10888 10101 4201 Blue 16
5 PM Sun 62 63 N 5 10138 9371 3471 Blue 13
6 PM Sun 60 60 N 3 9404 8135 2235 Blue 10
7 PM Sun 57 57 NW 3 8173 7000 1100 Blue 7
8 PM Sun 54 54 NW 3 7021 5900 0 Blue 4
9 PM Sun 52 52 N 5 6230 5900 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 51 51 N 6 5825 5900 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sun 50 50 NE 14 5415 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 50 50 NE 14 5415 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 50 50 NE 14 5415 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 49 49 NE 15 5157 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 48 48 NE 15 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 47 47 NE 15 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 47 47 NE 18 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 46 46 NE 18 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 46 46 NE 18 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 49 49 NE 25 5157 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 57 58 NE 25 8718 7382 1482 Blue 8
10 AM Mon 62 65 NE 25 10608 9863 3963 Blue 15
11 AM Mon 64 69 NE 24 11717 10837 4937 Blue 19
12 Noon Mon 66 72 NE 24 14684 11659 5759 Blue 22
1 PM Mon 66 72 NE 24 14684 11659 5759 Blue 22
2 PM Mon 67 72 NE 22 14684 11659 5759 Blue 22
3 PM Mon 67 71 NE 22 13681 11387 5487 Blue 21
4 PM Mon 66 68 NE 22 11443 10561 4661 Blue 18
5 PM Mon 64 65 NE 23 10608 9863 3963 Blue 15
6 PM Mon 62 62 NE 23 9900 9124 3224 Blue 12
7 PM Mon 59 59 NE 23 9155 7760 1860 Blue 9
8 PM Mon 56 56 NE 21 7790 6612 712 Blue 6
9 PM Mon 54 54 NE 21 7021 5900 0 Blue 4
10 PM Mon 52 52 NE 21 6230 5900 0 Blue 2
11 PM Mon 51 51 NE 22 5825 5900 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Tue 51 51 NE 22 5825 5900 0 Blue 1
1 AM Tue 51 51 NE 22 5825 5900 0 Blue 1
2 AM Tue 50 50 NE 28 5415 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 49 49 NE 28 5157 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 48 48 NE 28 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 48 48 NE 24 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 47 47 NE 24 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 47 47 NE 24 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 50 NE 24 5415 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 59 60 NE 24 9404 8135 2235 Blue 10
10 AM Tue 63 66 NE 24 10888 10101 4201 Blue 16
11 AM Tue 66 70 NE 18 12497 11113 5213 Blue 20
12 Noon Tue 68 73 NE 18 15572 12187 6287 Blue 23
1 PM Tue 69 74 NE 18 16378 13380 7480 Blue 24
2 PM Tue 69 74 NE 14 16378 13380 7480 Blue 24
3 PM Tue 69 73 NE 14 15572 12187 6287 Blue 23
4 PM Tue 68 70 NE 14 12497 11113 5213 Blue 20
5 PM Tue 66 67 NE 16 11166 10332 4432 Blue 17
6 PM Tue 64 64 NE 16 10370 9617 3717 Blue 14
7 PM Tue 61 61 NE 16 9652 8623 2723 Blue 11
8 PM Tue 58 58 N 10 8718 7382 1482 Blue 8
9 PM Tue 56 56 N 10 7790 6612 712 Blue 6
10 PM Tue 54 54 N 10 7021 5900 0 Blue 4
11 PM Tue 53 53 NE 14 6628 5900 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Wed 53 53 NE 14 6628 5900 0 Blue 3
1 AM Wed 53 53 NE 14 6628 5900 0 Blue 3
2 AM Wed 52 52 NE 18 6230 5900 0 Blue 2
3 AM Wed 51 51 NE 18 5825 5900 0 Blue 1
4 AM Wed 50 50 NE 18 5415 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 50 50 NE 28 5415 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 49 49 NE 28 5157 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 49 49 NE 28 5157 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 52 52 NE 26 6230 5900 0 Blue 2
9 AM Wed 61 62 NE 26 9900 9124 3224 Blue 12
10 AM Wed 66 69 NE 26 11717 10837 4937 Blue 19
11 AM Wed 68 73 NE 22 15572 12187 6287 Blue 23
12 Noon Wed 70 76 NE 22 17817 15279 9379 Blue 26
1 PM Wed 72 78 NE 22 18883 16831 10931 Blue 28
2 PM Wed 72 77 NE 16 18443 16086 10186 Blue 27
3 PM Wed 72 76 NE 16 17817 15279 9379 Blue 26
4 PM Wed 71 73 NE 16 15572 12187 6287 Blue 23
5 PM Wed 69 70 NE 15 12497 11113 5213 Blue 20
6 PM Wed 67 67 NE 15 11166 10332 4432 Blue 17
7 PM Wed 64 64 NE 15 10370 9617 3717 Blue 14
8 PM Wed 60 60 N 14 9404 8135 2235 Blue 10
9 PM Wed 58 58 N 14 8718 7382 1482 Blue 8
10 PM Wed 56 56 N 14 7790 6612 712 Blue 6
11 PM Wed 56 56 NE 17 7790 6612 712 Blue 6
12 Midnight Thu 55 55 NE 17 7408 6218 318 Blue 5
1 AM Thu 55 55 NE 17 7408 6218 318 Blue 5
2 AM Thu 54 54 NE 21 7021 5900 0 Blue 4
3 AM Thu 53 53 NE 21 6628 5900 0 Blue 3
4 AM Thu 53 53 NE 21 6628 5900 0 Blue 3
5 AM Thu 52 52 NE 22 6230 5900 0 Blue 2
6 AM Thu 51 51 NE 22 5825 5900 0 Blue 1
7 AM Thu 51 51 NE 22 5825 5900 0 Blue 1
8 AM Thu 54 54 NE 23 7021 5900 0 Blue 4
9 AM Thu 63 64 NE 23 10370 9617 3717 Blue 14
10 AM Thu 68 71 NE 23 13681 11387 5487 Blue 21
11 AM Thu 70 75 NE 18 17122 14388 8488 Blue 25
12 Noon Thu 72 78 NE 18 18883 16831 10931 Blue 28
1 PM Thu 74 80 NE 18 19773 18181 12281 Blue 30
2 PM Thu 74 79 NE 15 19334 17526 11626 Blue 29
3 PM Thu 74 78 NE 15 18883 16831 10931 Blue 28
4 PM Thu 73 75 NE 15 17122 14388 8488 Blue 25
5 PM Thu 71 72 NE 16 14684 11659 5759 Blue 22
6 PM Thu 69 69 NE 16 11717 10837 4937 Blue 19
7 PM Thu 66 66 NE 16 10888 10101 4201 Blue 16
8 PM Thu 63 63 N 12 10138 9371 3471 Blue 13
9 PM Thu 61 61 N 12 9652 8623 2723 Blue 11
10 PM Thu 59 59 N 12 9155 7760 1860 Blue 9
11 PM Thu 58 58 NE 18 8718 7382 1482 Blue 8
12 Midnight Fri 58 58 NE 18 8718 7382 1482 Blue 8
1 AM Fri 58 58 NE 18 8718 7382 1482 Blue 8
2 AM Fri 57 57 NE 20 8173 7000 1100 Blue 7
3 AM Fri 56 56 NE 20 7790 6612 712 Blue 6
4 AM Fri 56 56 NE 20 7790 6612 712 Blue 6

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst